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000
FXUS63 KLBF 210514
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1114 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48. POTENT GULF OF ALASKA STORM MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED
OUT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SIXTY PERCENT OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST (SREF) MEMBERS
INDICATE LESS THAN ONE MILE VISIBILITY IN MIST/FOG IN THE PLATTE
VALLEY AFTER 03Z. ALSO...WITH SNOW MELTING AND EVAPORATING
TODAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS HAVE HAD PATCHY FOG. THEREFORE...WE HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE AFFECTED AREA SOUTH AND WEST TO INCLUDE
BROKEN BOW...NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND FOG POTENTIAL.  LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE
FOG ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
REVEAL A SATURATED BL WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.  MAIN CONCERN TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IS A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.  FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOG AND WAIT TO SEE HOW TRENDS PLAY OUT.  THE PRESENCE OF THE
PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 2-3 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER THAN THAT OF THIS MORNING.  LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S SHOULD PREVAIL.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ENCROACHING UL JET STREAK.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.  SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MAY BE POSSIBLE.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS DPVA AND SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE IN THE 295-305
TARGET NORTHWEST NEBRASKA FIRST.  BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE THERE...IT/LL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SUFFICIENT
SATURATION...NO PRECIPITATION WAS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID RANGE AND LONG TERM MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH SYSTEMS. IN THE MID TERM HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER NAM SOLUTION. IN THE LONGER TERM DAY 4
AND BEYOND TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT ON A RUN TO RUN BASIS. STILL SOME SNOW COVER OVER THE
CWA WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO
BROKEN BOW. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 40S ON SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH GONE. SUNDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEST WINDS TO STAY UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. 850MB TEMPERATURES
NOT FALLING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS UNTIL 18Z MON. HAVE KEPT RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
THE NORTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR ZR- THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OVER
NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THIS FORECAST AS BUFKIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS PRETTY SILENT ON PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED WITH
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH. BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. COLDER
MODIFIED CANADIAN FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WINDY. SNOW ENDING TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. RIGHT NOW AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TUESDAY COLDER WITH WIND DIMINISHING HIGHS IN
THE 30S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED WITH FRESH
SNOW. TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WARMUP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM. HAVE
RETAINED CHANCE POPS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD FORECAST
THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND COOLING INTO
THE 20S ON FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...EAST OF AN ANW-BBW LINE WHICH INCLUDES BUB AND ONL.
VISIBILITY COULD BE RESTRICTED TO LESS THAN 1SM IN THAT AREA. THERE
IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
BUB-OGA LINE WHERE 3SM OR LOWER IS LIKELY WITH BR. THE REST OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING VTN...TIF AND MHN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY IN THE VISUAL CATEGORY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 210514
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1114 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48. POTENT GULF OF ALASKA STORM MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED
OUT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SIXTY PERCENT OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST (SREF) MEMBERS
INDICATE LESS THAN ONE MILE VISIBILITY IN MIST/FOG IN THE PLATTE
VALLEY AFTER 03Z. ALSO...WITH SNOW MELTING AND EVAPORATING
TODAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS HAVE HAD PATCHY FOG. THEREFORE...WE HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE AFFECTED AREA SOUTH AND WEST TO INCLUDE
BROKEN BOW...NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND FOG POTENTIAL.  LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE
FOG ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
REVEAL A SATURATED BL WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.  MAIN CONCERN TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IS A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.  FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOG AND WAIT TO SEE HOW TRENDS PLAY OUT.  THE PRESENCE OF THE
PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 2-3 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER THAN THAT OF THIS MORNING.  LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S SHOULD PREVAIL.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ENCROACHING UL JET STREAK.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.  SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MAY BE POSSIBLE.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS DPVA AND SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE IN THE 295-305
TARGET NORTHWEST NEBRASKA FIRST.  BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE THERE...IT/LL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SUFFICIENT
SATURATION...NO PRECIPITATION WAS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID RANGE AND LONG TERM MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH SYSTEMS. IN THE MID TERM HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER NAM SOLUTION. IN THE LONGER TERM DAY 4
AND BEYOND TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT ON A RUN TO RUN BASIS. STILL SOME SNOW COVER OVER THE
CWA WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO
BROKEN BOW. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 40S ON SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH GONE. SUNDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEST WINDS TO STAY UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. 850MB TEMPERATURES
NOT FALLING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS UNTIL 18Z MON. HAVE KEPT RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
THE NORTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR ZR- THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OVER
NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THIS FORECAST AS BUFKIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS PRETTY SILENT ON PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED WITH
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH. BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. COLDER
MODIFIED CANADIAN FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WINDY. SNOW ENDING TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. RIGHT NOW AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TUESDAY COLDER WITH WIND DIMINISHING HIGHS IN
THE 30S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED WITH FRESH
SNOW. TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WARMUP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM. HAVE
RETAINED CHANCE POPS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD FORECAST
THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND COOLING INTO
THE 20S ON FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...EAST OF AN ANW-BBW LINE WHICH INCLUDES BUB AND ONL.
VISIBILITY COULD BE RESTRICTED TO LESS THAN 1SM IN THAT AREA. THERE
IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
BUB-OGA LINE WHERE 3SM OR LOWER IS LIKELY WITH BR. THE REST OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING VTN...TIF AND MHN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
CEILING AND VISIBILITY IN THE VISUAL CATEGORY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






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000
FXUS63 KOAX 210311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
911 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVRY FOR PARTS OF THE WRN/SRN CWA FOR
TONIGHT. THE 01Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SFC TROF EXTNDG FM A LOW
OVER NORTHERN SD THRU CNTRL NEB AND INTO WRN KS. A WARM FRONT
EXTNDD FM SRN NEB THRU NE KS AND CNTRL MO. TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS WERE THE DENSE FOG WAS
DVLPG. THE FOG IS LIKELY TO BE MOST DENSE NEAR THE AREAS OF
OFK/BVN/OLU WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER AND WINDS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHTER. FARTHER SOUTH...THE WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRY AND MOV A BIT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING OVER PARTS OF THE ERN/SRN
CWA. THIS MAY TEND TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL END THE ADVRY THERE FIRST.

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXTNDD FM
THE SHRTWV TROF OVR ND SWD TO A SECONDARY SHRTWV OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH WEAK...SOME LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
INDICATED ALONG THIS SHEAR AXIS PER SHRT RANGE MODELS. ALTHOUGH
CERTAINLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN...SOME DZ IS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE SRN 2/3RD OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH IN THIS AREA SO
LITTLE OVER-ALL IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANOTHER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN OR
SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY WAS SEEN THIS
MORNING...BETWEEN AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES. EXITING TROUGH
PRODUCED ENOUGH LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD SLIPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING. MINOR IMPACTS TO SIDEWALKS AND ELEVATED SURFACE WERE
SEEN...BUT NOT A HUGE TRAVEL HAZARD. EXPECT A REPEAT TO THE DRIZZLE
SCENARIO TONIGHT AS ROCKIES TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...PUTTING OUR AREA UNDER CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/LIFT OVER
SATURATED SURFACE LAYER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW PUSHES DEW POINTS TO OR ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE CWA MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL KICK UP A BIT MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
TURN A TAD WEST OF SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS COULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS IN A FEW AREAS...BUT PLAYING
IT PESSIMISTIC ON THE SHORTEST DAY OF THE YEAR APPEARS PRUDENT.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO OR ABOVE 40 MOST AREAS.

MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. BROAD ASCENT ON EAST SIDE OF
TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT. EXPECT PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS BOUNDARY ROTATES EAST THEN NORTHEAST. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION OVER SURFACE FRONT IS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS WITH 850
JET OVER 40KT RIDING ISENTROPES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF OUR AREA BY
NOON. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH
THIS TIME AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER PRECIP ENDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR IN THE LOWEST 6000FT DURING PRECIPITATION.

SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD FOR A TIME MONDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW SWINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CWA LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BY THIS TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL AREAS. MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH CHANCES
DIMINISHING TO NEAR ZERO AS WE HEAD TO THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDERS. AVERAGE QPF FROM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER DROPPING TO A HALF
INCH OR LESS ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SHORTWAVE ROTATES FAR ENOUGH EAST. CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS THEN IN
THE 30S WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
LONGER TERM FORECAST CONCERN.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN
THE WESTERN STATES...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK.

MODELS...AT LEAST THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN REGARDS TO STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING
OUT ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE TRANSITION FROM NORTH OR
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WARMING. SO
TEMPERATURES MAY GAIN A FEW DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT AMOUNT OF WARMING. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE 30S EACH DAY.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES ON EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
IN PRECIP AREAS SUGGEST AN ALL SNOW EVENT...AND FAVORING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOKING LIKE A FEW INCHES AT
THE MAX. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LIFR CONDS AT KOFK/KOMA WILL CONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AHEAD OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT TONIGHT WE MAY SEE SOME 1/4 TO
1/2 FG DEVELOP AT BOTH OF THESE LOCATIONS BY 06Z. IF THIS FG DVLPS
IT WOULD LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT AT KOFK BUT MAY TEND TO
LIFT A BIT AT KOMA LATE TONIGHT AS MIXING INCREASES AS WARM FRONT
NEARS. WE WILL SEE MVFR CONDS GO TO IFR AT LNK...AND POSSIBLY LIFR
FOR A TIME THIS EVNG JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY THERE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY SUN AFT AS WINDS INCREASE ALLOWING FOR
VISBY TO IMPROVE AND CIGS TO LIFT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ066>068-078-
     088>090-092.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ016-017-030>032-
     042>044-050-051-065.

IA...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 210311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
911 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVRY FOR PARTS OF THE WRN/SRN CWA FOR
TONIGHT. THE 01Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SFC TROF EXTNDG FM A LOW
OVER NORTHERN SD THRU CNTRL NEB AND INTO WRN KS. A WARM FRONT
EXTNDD FM SRN NEB THRU NE KS AND CNTRL MO. TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS WERE THE DENSE FOG WAS
DVLPG. THE FOG IS LIKELY TO BE MOST DENSE NEAR THE AREAS OF
OFK/BVN/OLU WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER AND WINDS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHTER. FARTHER SOUTH...THE WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRY AND MOV A BIT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING OVER PARTS OF THE ERN/SRN
CWA. THIS MAY TEND TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL END THE ADVRY THERE FIRST.

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXTNDD FM
THE SHRTWV TROF OVR ND SWD TO A SECONDARY SHRTWV OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH WEAK...SOME LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
INDICATED ALONG THIS SHEAR AXIS PER SHRT RANGE MODELS. ALTHOUGH
CERTAINLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN...SOME DZ IS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE SRN 2/3RD OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH IN THIS AREA SO
LITTLE OVER-ALL IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANOTHER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN OR
SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY WAS SEEN THIS
MORNING...BETWEEN AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES. EXITING TROUGH
PRODUCED ENOUGH LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD SLIPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING. MINOR IMPACTS TO SIDEWALKS AND ELEVATED SURFACE WERE
SEEN...BUT NOT A HUGE TRAVEL HAZARD. EXPECT A REPEAT TO THE DRIZZLE
SCENARIO TONIGHT AS ROCKIES TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...PUTTING OUR AREA UNDER CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/LIFT OVER
SATURATED SURFACE LAYER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW PUSHES DEW POINTS TO OR ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE CWA MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL KICK UP A BIT MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
TURN A TAD WEST OF SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS COULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS IN A FEW AREAS...BUT PLAYING
IT PESSIMISTIC ON THE SHORTEST DAY OF THE YEAR APPEARS PRUDENT.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO OR ABOVE 40 MOST AREAS.

MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. BROAD ASCENT ON EAST SIDE OF
TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT. EXPECT PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS BOUNDARY ROTATES EAST THEN NORTHEAST. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION OVER SURFACE FRONT IS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS WITH 850
JET OVER 40KT RIDING ISENTROPES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF OUR AREA BY
NOON. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH
THIS TIME AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER PRECIP ENDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR IN THE LOWEST 6000FT DURING PRECIPITATION.

SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD FOR A TIME MONDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW SWINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CWA LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BY THIS TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL AREAS. MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH CHANCES
DIMINISHING TO NEAR ZERO AS WE HEAD TO THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDERS. AVERAGE QPF FROM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER DROPPING TO A HALF
INCH OR LESS ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SHORTWAVE ROTATES FAR ENOUGH EAST. CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS THEN IN
THE 30S WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
LONGER TERM FORECAST CONCERN.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN
THE WESTERN STATES...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK.

MODELS...AT LEAST THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN REGARDS TO STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING
OUT ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE TRANSITION FROM NORTH OR
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WARMING. SO
TEMPERATURES MAY GAIN A FEW DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT AMOUNT OF WARMING. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE 30S EACH DAY.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES ON EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
IN PRECIP AREAS SUGGEST AN ALL SNOW EVENT...AND FAVORING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOKING LIKE A FEW INCHES AT
THE MAX. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LIFR CONDS AT KOFK/KOMA WILL CONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AHEAD OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT TONIGHT WE MAY SEE SOME 1/4 TO
1/2 FG DEVELOP AT BOTH OF THESE LOCATIONS BY 06Z. IF THIS FG DVLPS
IT WOULD LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT AT KOFK BUT MAY TEND TO
LIFT A BIT AT KOMA LATE TONIGHT AS MIXING INCREASES AS WARM FRONT
NEARS. WE WILL SEE MVFR CONDS GO TO IFR AT LNK...AND POSSIBLY LIFR
FOR A TIME THIS EVNG JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY THERE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY SUN AFT AS WINDS INCREASE ALLOWING FOR
VISBY TO IMPROVE AND CIGS TO LIFT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ066>068-078-
     088>090-092.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ016-017-030>032-
     042>044-050-051-065.

IA...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 210311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
911 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVRY FOR PARTS OF THE WRN/SRN CWA FOR
TONIGHT. THE 01Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SFC TROF EXTNDG FM A LOW
OVER NORTHERN SD THRU CNTRL NEB AND INTO WRN KS. A WARM FRONT
EXTNDD FM SRN NEB THRU NE KS AND CNTRL MO. TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS WERE THE DENSE FOG WAS
DVLPG. THE FOG IS LIKELY TO BE MOST DENSE NEAR THE AREAS OF
OFK/BVN/OLU WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER AND WINDS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHTER. FARTHER SOUTH...THE WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRY AND MOV A BIT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING OVER PARTS OF THE ERN/SRN
CWA. THIS MAY TEND TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL END THE ADVRY THERE FIRST.

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXTNDD FM
THE SHRTWV TROF OVR ND SWD TO A SECONDARY SHRTWV OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH WEAK...SOME LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
INDICATED ALONG THIS SHEAR AXIS PER SHRT RANGE MODELS. ALTHOUGH
CERTAINLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN...SOME DZ IS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE SRN 2/3RD OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH IN THIS AREA SO
LITTLE OVER-ALL IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANOTHER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN OR
SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY WAS SEEN THIS
MORNING...BETWEEN AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES. EXITING TROUGH
PRODUCED ENOUGH LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD SLIPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING. MINOR IMPACTS TO SIDEWALKS AND ELEVATED SURFACE WERE
SEEN...BUT NOT A HUGE TRAVEL HAZARD. EXPECT A REPEAT TO THE DRIZZLE
SCENARIO TONIGHT AS ROCKIES TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...PUTTING OUR AREA UNDER CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/LIFT OVER
SATURATED SURFACE LAYER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW PUSHES DEW POINTS TO OR ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE CWA MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL KICK UP A BIT MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
TURN A TAD WEST OF SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS COULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS IN A FEW AREAS...BUT PLAYING
IT PESSIMISTIC ON THE SHORTEST DAY OF THE YEAR APPEARS PRUDENT.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO OR ABOVE 40 MOST AREAS.

MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. BROAD ASCENT ON EAST SIDE OF
TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT. EXPECT PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS BOUNDARY ROTATES EAST THEN NORTHEAST. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION OVER SURFACE FRONT IS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS WITH 850
JET OVER 40KT RIDING ISENTROPES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF OUR AREA BY
NOON. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH
THIS TIME AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER PRECIP ENDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR IN THE LOWEST 6000FT DURING PRECIPITATION.

SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD FOR A TIME MONDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW SWINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CWA LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BY THIS TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL AREAS. MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH CHANCES
DIMINISHING TO NEAR ZERO AS WE HEAD TO THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDERS. AVERAGE QPF FROM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER DROPPING TO A HALF
INCH OR LESS ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SHORTWAVE ROTATES FAR ENOUGH EAST. CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS THEN IN
THE 30S WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
LONGER TERM FORECAST CONCERN.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN
THE WESTERN STATES...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK.

MODELS...AT LEAST THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN REGARDS TO STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING
OUT ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE TRANSITION FROM NORTH OR
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WARMING. SO
TEMPERATURES MAY GAIN A FEW DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT AMOUNT OF WARMING. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE 30S EACH DAY.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES ON EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
IN PRECIP AREAS SUGGEST AN ALL SNOW EVENT...AND FAVORING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOKING LIKE A FEW INCHES AT
THE MAX. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LIFR CONDS AT KOFK/KOMA WILL CONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AHEAD OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT TONIGHT WE MAY SEE SOME 1/4 TO
1/2 FG DEVELOP AT BOTH OF THESE LOCATIONS BY 06Z. IF THIS FG DVLPS
IT WOULD LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT AT KOFK BUT MAY TEND TO
LIFT A BIT AT KOMA LATE TONIGHT AS MIXING INCREASES AS WARM FRONT
NEARS. WE WILL SEE MVFR CONDS GO TO IFR AT LNK...AND POSSIBLY LIFR
FOR A TIME THIS EVNG JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY THERE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY SUN AFT AS WINDS INCREASE ALLOWING FOR
VISBY TO IMPROVE AND CIGS TO LIFT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ066>068-078-
     088>090-092.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ016-017-030>032-
     042>044-050-051-065.

IA...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 210311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
911 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVRY FOR PARTS OF THE WRN/SRN CWA FOR
TONIGHT. THE 01Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SFC TROF EXTNDG FM A LOW
OVER NORTHERN SD THRU CNTRL NEB AND INTO WRN KS. A WARM FRONT
EXTNDD FM SRN NEB THRU NE KS AND CNTRL MO. TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS WERE THE DENSE FOG WAS
DVLPG. THE FOG IS LIKELY TO BE MOST DENSE NEAR THE AREAS OF
OFK/BVN/OLU WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER AND WINDS
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHTER. FARTHER SOUTH...THE WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRY AND MOV A BIT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE THE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING OVER PARTS OF THE ERN/SRN
CWA. THIS MAY TEND TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL END THE ADVRY THERE FIRST.

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXTNDD FM
THE SHRTWV TROF OVR ND SWD TO A SECONDARY SHRTWV OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH WEAK...SOME LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
INDICATED ALONG THIS SHEAR AXIS PER SHRT RANGE MODELS. ALTHOUGH
CERTAINLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN...SOME DZ IS STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE SRN 2/3RD OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH IN THIS AREA SO
LITTLE OVER-ALL IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANOTHER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN OR
SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY WAS SEEN THIS
MORNING...BETWEEN AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES. EXITING TROUGH
PRODUCED ENOUGH LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD SLIPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING. MINOR IMPACTS TO SIDEWALKS AND ELEVATED SURFACE WERE
SEEN...BUT NOT A HUGE TRAVEL HAZARD. EXPECT A REPEAT TO THE DRIZZLE
SCENARIO TONIGHT AS ROCKIES TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...PUTTING OUR AREA UNDER CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/LIFT OVER
SATURATED SURFACE LAYER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW PUSHES DEW POINTS TO OR ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE CWA MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL KICK UP A BIT MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
TURN A TAD WEST OF SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS COULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS IN A FEW AREAS...BUT PLAYING
IT PESSIMISTIC ON THE SHORTEST DAY OF THE YEAR APPEARS PRUDENT.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO OR ABOVE 40 MOST AREAS.

MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. BROAD ASCENT ON EAST SIDE OF
TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT. EXPECT PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS BOUNDARY ROTATES EAST THEN NORTHEAST. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION OVER SURFACE FRONT IS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS WITH 850
JET OVER 40KT RIDING ISENTROPES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF OUR AREA BY
NOON. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH
THIS TIME AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER PRECIP ENDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR IN THE LOWEST 6000FT DURING PRECIPITATION.

SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD FOR A TIME MONDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW SWINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CWA LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BY THIS TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL AREAS. MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH CHANCES
DIMINISHING TO NEAR ZERO AS WE HEAD TO THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDERS. AVERAGE QPF FROM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER DROPPING TO A HALF
INCH OR LESS ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SHORTWAVE ROTATES FAR ENOUGH EAST. CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS THEN IN
THE 30S WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
LONGER TERM FORECAST CONCERN.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN
THE WESTERN STATES...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK.

MODELS...AT LEAST THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN REGARDS TO STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING
OUT ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE TRANSITION FROM NORTH OR
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WARMING. SO
TEMPERATURES MAY GAIN A FEW DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT AMOUNT OF WARMING. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE 30S EACH DAY.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES ON EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
IN PRECIP AREAS SUGGEST AN ALL SNOW EVENT...AND FAVORING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOKING LIKE A FEW INCHES AT
THE MAX. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LIFR CONDS AT KOFK/KOMA WILL CONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AHEAD OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT TONIGHT WE MAY SEE SOME 1/4 TO
1/2 FG DEVELOP AT BOTH OF THESE LOCATIONS BY 06Z. IF THIS FG DVLPS
IT WOULD LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT AT KOFK BUT MAY TEND TO
LIFT A BIT AT KOMA LATE TONIGHT AS MIXING INCREASES AS WARM FRONT
NEARS. WE WILL SEE MVFR CONDS GO TO IFR AT LNK...AND POSSIBLY LIFR
FOR A TIME THIS EVNG JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY THERE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY SUN AFT AS WINDS INCREASE ALLOWING FOR
VISBY TO IMPROVE AND CIGS TO LIFT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ066>068-078-
     088>090-092.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ016-017-030>032-
     042>044-050-051-065.

IA...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOUSTEAD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGID 210040
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
640 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING TO SETTLE IN OVER OUR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT GRI...JYR...AND AUH...WHICH
HAVE ALL GONE DOWN TO 1/4 SM IN THE LAST HOUR. FORECAST MODELS
INCLUDING THE RAP...HRRR...AND SREF ARE ALL INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG FROM THE HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND AREAS
AND POINTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THERE. IT IS HARD TO SAY
HOW FAR WEST AND SOUTH THE DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP...BUT THERE IS
LESS MODEL SUPPORT FOR DENSE FOG AS YOU GET SOUTH AND WEST OF
HASTINGS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST LATER IN THE NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT THERE TO GO ANY FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS THE AREA OF PERSISTENT STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS BUT
THE THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER FROM THE WEST THE STRATUS IS
BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE. IN THE STRATUS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE IN THE 30S...BUT AREAS WITH SUNSHINE HAVE WARMED MORE
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PERIOD ONCE AGAIN IS THE FOG CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AT 925MB HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE STRATUS THE BEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT THE NORTHEAST REMAINS WITH
CLOUDS. IN THE SOUTHEAST THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG NEAR THE
EDGES OF THE STRATUS. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG SINCE VISIBILITY AT KJYR STILL HAS LOW VISIBILITY. ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THE EAST IS THE BEST CHANCE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BIT FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP TO MIX THINGS UP A BIT AND THE FOG AND STRATUS
MAY FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

WE KICK OFF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AS A STRONG JET HEADS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH..FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOST OF
THE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SO I AM NOT GOING ALL THAT HIGH WITH CHANCES HERE. A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP KICK
SOMETHING UP IN THE EVENING...THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW...BUT SMALL
FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT TO BE VERY EXACT WITH TIMING.  KEEPING THIS
ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION EXITS WITH THIS PERTURBATION. ANOTHER PERTURBATION
WORKS AROUND THE TROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES APPEAR TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATION NO MORE THAN AN INCH ANTICIPATED WITH THIS NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST WITH
EXACT TIMING.

FLOW IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE ROCKIES. A PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF AHEAD OF THE
MAIN WAVE...BUT LOOKS MORE FOCUSED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. WE COULD
GET SOME SNOW OUT OF THIS...BUT AGAIN...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL
GET A LOT OUT OF SNOW. WE SHOULD GET A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FRIDAY
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND THE WIND COULD BE QUITE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...MAKING THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS POTENTIALLY BRISK AND
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE
FOG. IT IS A SURE BET THAT WE WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG AT KGRI AS
IT IS ALREADY HAPPENING. MY HUNCH WOULD BE THAT THE FOG WILL
FLUCTUATE AT TIMES AT KGRI...BUT THAT MUCH OF THE NIGHT COULD BE
TOTALLY SOCKED IN UNDER THE FOG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. KEAR MAY
VERY WELL STAY WEST OF THE FOG TONIGHT AND WILL GO WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AT KEAR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE FOG SPREADING EAST INTO KEAR LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ039>041-047>049-
     062>064-075>077-087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 210040
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
640 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING TO SETTLE IN OVER OUR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT GRI...JYR...AND AUH...WHICH
HAVE ALL GONE DOWN TO 1/4 SM IN THE LAST HOUR. FORECAST MODELS
INCLUDING THE RAP...HRRR...AND SREF ARE ALL INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG FROM THE HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND AREAS
AND POINTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THERE. IT IS HARD TO SAY
HOW FAR WEST AND SOUTH THE DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP...BUT THERE IS
LESS MODEL SUPPORT FOR DENSE FOG AS YOU GET SOUTH AND WEST OF
HASTINGS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST LATER IN THE NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT THERE TO GO ANY FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS THE AREA OF PERSISTENT STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS BUT
THE THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER FROM THE WEST THE STRATUS IS
BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE. IN THE STRATUS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE IN THE 30S...BUT AREAS WITH SUNSHINE HAVE WARMED MORE
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PERIOD ONCE AGAIN IS THE FOG CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AT 925MB HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE STRATUS THE BEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT THE NORTHEAST REMAINS WITH
CLOUDS. IN THE SOUTHEAST THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG NEAR THE
EDGES OF THE STRATUS. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG SINCE VISIBILITY AT KJYR STILL HAS LOW VISIBILITY. ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THE EAST IS THE BEST CHANCE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BIT FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP TO MIX THINGS UP A BIT AND THE FOG AND STRATUS
MAY FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

WE KICK OFF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AS A STRONG JET HEADS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH..FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOST OF
THE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SO I AM NOT GOING ALL THAT HIGH WITH CHANCES HERE. A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP KICK
SOMETHING UP IN THE EVENING...THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW...BUT SMALL
FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT TO BE VERY EXACT WITH TIMING.  KEEPING THIS
ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION EXITS WITH THIS PERTURBATION. ANOTHER PERTURBATION
WORKS AROUND THE TROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES APPEAR TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATION NO MORE THAN AN INCH ANTICIPATED WITH THIS NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST WITH
EXACT TIMING.

FLOW IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE ROCKIES. A PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF AHEAD OF THE
MAIN WAVE...BUT LOOKS MORE FOCUSED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. WE COULD
GET SOME SNOW OUT OF THIS...BUT AGAIN...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL
GET A LOT OUT OF SNOW. WE SHOULD GET A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FRIDAY
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND THE WIND COULD BE QUITE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...MAKING THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS POTENTIALLY BRISK AND
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE
FOG. IT IS A SURE BET THAT WE WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG AT KGRI AS
IT IS ALREADY HAPPENING. MY HUNCH WOULD BE THAT THE FOG WILL
FLUCTUATE AT TIMES AT KGRI...BUT THAT MUCH OF THE NIGHT COULD BE
TOTALLY SOCKED IN UNDER THE FOG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. KEAR MAY
VERY WELL STAY WEST OF THE FOG TONIGHT AND WILL GO WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS AT KEAR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE FOG SPREADING EAST INTO KEAR LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ039>041-047>049-
     062>064-075>077-087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KLBF 210009
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
609 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48. POTENT GULF OF ALASKA STORM MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED
OUT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SIXTY PERCENT OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST (SREF) MEMBERS
INDICATE LESS THAN ONE MILE VISIBILITY IN MIST/FOG IN THE PLATTE
VALLEY AFTER 03Z. ALSO...WITH SNOW MELTING AND EVAPORATING
TODAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS HAVE HAD PATCHY FOG. THEREFORE...WE HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE AFFECTED AREA SOUTH AND WEST TO INCLUDE
BROKEN BOW...NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND FOG POTENTIAL.  LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE
FOG ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
REVEAL A SATURATED BL WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.  MAIN CONCERN TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IS A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.  FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOG AND WAIT TO SEE HOW TRENDS PLAY OUT.  THE PRESENCE OF THE
PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 2-3 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER THAN THAT OF THIS MORNING.  LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S SHOULD PREVAIL.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ENCROACHING UL JET STREAK.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.  SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MAY BE POSSIBLE.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS DPVA AND SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE IN THE 295-305
TARGET NORTHWEST NEBRASKA FIRST.  BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE THERE...IT/LL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SUFFICIENT
SATURATION...NO PRECIPITATION WAS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID RANGE AND LONG TERM MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH SYSTEMS. IN THE MID TERM HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER NAM SOLUTION. IN THE LONGER TERM DAY 4
AND BEYOND TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT ON A RUN TO RUN BASIS. STILL SOME SNOW COVER OVER THE
CWA WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO
BROKEN BOW. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 40S ON SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH GONE. SUNDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEST WINDS TO STAY UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. 850MB TEMPERATURES
NOT FALLING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS UNTIL 18Z MON. HAVE KEPT RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
THE NORTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR ZR- THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OVER
NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THIS FORECAST AS BUFKIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS PRETTY SILENT ON PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED WITH
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH. BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. COLDER
MODIFIED CANADIAN FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WINDY. SNOW ENDING TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. RIGHT NOW AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TUESDAY COLDER WITH WIND DIMINISHING HIGHS IN
THE 30S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED WITH FRESH
SNOW. TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WARMUP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM. HAVE
RETAINED CHANCE POPS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD FORECAST
THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND COOLING INTO
THE 20S ON FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL AND 3SM OVER A
LARGE PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INCLUDING ONL...BBW AND ANW AND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING LBF AND OGA...VISIBILITY WILL PROBABLY DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 3SM AFTER 04Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW 1SM IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY BUT...AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 210009
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
609 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48. POTENT GULF OF ALASKA STORM MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED
OUT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SIXTY PERCENT OF THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST (SREF) MEMBERS
INDICATE LESS THAN ONE MILE VISIBILITY IN MIST/FOG IN THE PLATTE
VALLEY AFTER 03Z. ALSO...WITH SNOW MELTING AND EVAPORATING
TODAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS HAVE HAD PATCHY FOG. THEREFORE...WE HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE AFFECTED AREA SOUTH AND WEST TO INCLUDE
BROKEN BOW...NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND FOG POTENTIAL.  LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE
FOG ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
REVEAL A SATURATED BL WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.  MAIN CONCERN TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IS A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.  FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOG AND WAIT TO SEE HOW TRENDS PLAY OUT.  THE PRESENCE OF THE
PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 2-3 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER THAN THAT OF THIS MORNING.  LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S SHOULD PREVAIL.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ENCROACHING UL JET STREAK.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.  SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MAY BE POSSIBLE.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS DPVA AND SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE IN THE 295-305
TARGET NORTHWEST NEBRASKA FIRST.  BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE THERE...IT/LL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SUFFICIENT
SATURATION...NO PRECIPITATION WAS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID RANGE AND LONG TERM MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH SYSTEMS. IN THE MID TERM HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER NAM SOLUTION. IN THE LONGER TERM DAY 4
AND BEYOND TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT ON A RUN TO RUN BASIS. STILL SOME SNOW COVER OVER THE
CWA WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO
BROKEN BOW. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 40S ON SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH GONE. SUNDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEST WINDS TO STAY UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. 850MB TEMPERATURES
NOT FALLING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS UNTIL 18Z MON. HAVE KEPT RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
THE NORTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR ZR- THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OVER
NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THIS FORECAST AS BUFKIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS PRETTY SILENT ON PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED WITH
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH. BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. COLDER
MODIFIED CANADIAN FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WINDY. SNOW ENDING TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. RIGHT NOW AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TUESDAY COLDER WITH WIND DIMINISHING HIGHS IN
THE 30S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED WITH FRESH
SNOW. TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WARMUP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM. HAVE
RETAINED CHANCE POPS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD FORECAST
THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND COOLING INTO
THE 20S ON FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL AND 3SM OVER A
LARGE PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INCLUDING ONL...BBW AND ANW AND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING LBF AND OGA...VISIBILITY WILL PROBABLY DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 3SM AFTER 04Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW 1SM IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY BUT...AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KOAX 202341
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
541 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANOTHER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN OR
SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY WAS SEEN THIS
MORNING...BETWEEN AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES. EXITING TROUGH
PRODUCED ENOUGH LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD SLIPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING. MINOR IMPACTS TO SIDEWALKS AND ELEVATED SURFACE WERE
SEEN...BUT NOT A HUGE TRAVEL HAZARD. EXPECT A REPEAT TO THE DRIZZLE
SCENARIO TONIGHT AS ROCKIES TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...PUTTING OUR AREA UNDER CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/LIFT OVER
SATURATED SURFACE LAYER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW PUSHES DEW POINTS TO OR ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE CWA MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL KICK UP A BIT MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
TURN A TAD WEST OF SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS COULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS IN A FEW AREAS...BUT PLAYING
IT PESSIMISTIC ON THE SHORTEST DAY OF THE YEAR APPEARS PRUDENT.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO OR ABOVE 40 MOST AREAS.

MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. BROAD ASCENT ON EAST SIDE OF
TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT. EXPECT PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS BOUNDARY ROTATES EAST THEN NORTHEAST. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION OVER SURFACE FRONT IS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS WITH 850
JET OVER 40KT RIDING ISENTROPES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF OUR AREA BY
NOON. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH
THIS TIME AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER PRECIP ENDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR IN THE LOWEST 6000FT DURING PRECIPITATION.

SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD FOR A TIME MONDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW SWINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CWA LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BY THIS TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL AREAS. MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH CHANCES
DIMINISHING TO NEAR ZERO AS WE HEAD TO THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDERS. AVERAGE QPF FROM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER DROPPING TO A HALF
INCH OR LESS ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SHORTWAVE ROTATES FAR ENOUGH EAST. CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS THEN IN
THE 30S WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
LONGER TERM FORECAST CONCERN.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN
THE WESTERN STATES...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK.

MODELS...AT LEAST THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN REGARDS TO STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING
OUT ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE TRANSITION FROM NORTH OR
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WARMING. SO
TEMPERATURES MAY GAIN A FEW DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT AMOUNT OF WARMING. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE 30S EACH DAY.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES ON EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
IN PRECIP AREAS SUGGEST AN ALL SNOW EVENT...AND FAVORING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOKING LIKE A FEW INCHES AT
THE MAX. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LIFR CONDS AT KOFK/KOMA WILL CONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AHEAD OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT TONIGHT WE MAY SEE SOME 1/4 TO
1/2 FG DEVELOP AT BOTH OF THESE LOCATIONS BY 06Z. IF THIS FG DVLPS
IT WOULD LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT AT KOFK BUT MAY TEND TO
LIFT A BIT AT KOMA LATE TONIGHT AS MIXING INCREASES AS WARM FRONT
NEARS. WE WILL SEE MVFR CONDS GO TO IFR AT LNK...AND POSSIBLY LIFR
FOR A TIME THIS EVNG JUST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT BUT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY THERE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY SUN AFT AS WINDS INCREASE ALLOWING FOR
VISBY TO IMPROVE AND CIGS TO LIFT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KLBF 202325
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
525 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48. POTENT GULF OF ALASKA STORM MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED
OUT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND FOG POTENTIAL.  LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE
FOG ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
REVEAL A SATURATED BL WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.  MAIN CONCERN TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IS A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.  FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOG AND WAIT TO SEE HOW TRENDS PLAY OUT.  THE PRESENCE OF THE
PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 2-3 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER THAN THAT OF THIS MORNING.  LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S SHOULD PREVAIL.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ENCROACHING UL JET STREAK.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.  SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MAY BE POSSIBLE.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS DPVA AND SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE IN THE 295-305
TARGET NORTHWEST NEBRASKA FIRST.  BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE THERE...IT/LL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SUFFICIENT
SATURATION...NO PRECIPITATION WAS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID RANGE AND LONG TERM MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH SYSTEMS. IN THE MID TERM HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER NAM SOLUTION. IN THE LONGER TERM DAY 4
AND BEYOND TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT ON A RUN TO RUN BASIS. STILL SOME SNOW COVER OVER THE
CWA WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO
BROKEN BOW. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 40S ON SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH GONE. SUNDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEST WINDS TO STAY UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. 850MB TEMPERATURES
NOT FALLING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS UNTIL 18Z MON. HAVE KEPT RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
THE NORTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR ZR- THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OVER
NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THIS FORECAST AS BUFKIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS PRETTY SILENT ON PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED WITH
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH. BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. COLDER
MODIFIED CANADIAN FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WINDY. SNOW ENDING TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. RIGHT NOW AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TUESDAY COLDER WITH WIND DIMINISHING HIGHS IN
THE 30S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED WITH FRESH
SNOW. TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WARMUP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM. HAVE
RETAINED CHANCE POPS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD FORECAST
THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND COOLING INTO
THE 20S ON FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL AND 3SM OVER A
LARGE PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INCLUDING ONL...BBW AND ANW AND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING LBF AND OGA...VISIBILITY WILL PROBABLY DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 3SM AFTER 04Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW 1SM IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY BUT...AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 202325
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
525 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48. POTENT GULF OF ALASKA STORM MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED
OUT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND FOG POTENTIAL.  LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE
FOG ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
REVEAL A SATURATED BL WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.  MAIN CONCERN TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IS A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.  FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOG AND WAIT TO SEE HOW TRENDS PLAY OUT.  THE PRESENCE OF THE
PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 2-3 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER THAN THAT OF THIS MORNING.  LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S SHOULD PREVAIL.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ENCROACHING UL JET STREAK.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.  SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MAY BE POSSIBLE.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS DPVA AND SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE IN THE 295-305
TARGET NORTHWEST NEBRASKA FIRST.  BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE THERE...IT/LL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SUFFICIENT
SATURATION...NO PRECIPITATION WAS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID RANGE AND LONG TERM MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH SYSTEMS. IN THE MID TERM HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER NAM SOLUTION. IN THE LONGER TERM DAY 4
AND BEYOND TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT ON A RUN TO RUN BASIS. STILL SOME SNOW COVER OVER THE
CWA WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO
BROKEN BOW. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 40S ON SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH GONE. SUNDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEST WINDS TO STAY UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. 850MB TEMPERATURES
NOT FALLING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS UNTIL 18Z MON. HAVE KEPT RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
THE NORTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR ZR- THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OVER
NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THIS FORECAST AS BUFKIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS PRETTY SILENT ON PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED WITH
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH. BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. COLDER
MODIFIED CANADIAN FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WINDY. SNOW ENDING TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. RIGHT NOW AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TUESDAY COLDER WITH WIND DIMINISHING HIGHS IN
THE 30S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED WITH FRESH
SNOW. TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WARMUP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM. HAVE
RETAINED CHANCE POPS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD FORECAST
THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND COOLING INTO
THE 20S ON FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL AND 3SM OVER A
LARGE PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INCLUDING ONL...BBW AND ANW AND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING LBF AND OGA...VISIBILITY WILL PROBABLY DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 3SM AFTER 04Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW 1SM IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY BUT...AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 202201
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
401 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48. POTENT GULF OF ALASKA STORM MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED
OUT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND FOG POTENTIAL.  LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE
FOG ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
REVEAL A SATURATED BL WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.  MAIN CONCERN TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IS A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.  FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOG AND WAIT TO SEE HOW TRENDS PLAY OUT.  THE PRESENCE OF THE
PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 2-3 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER THAN THAT OF THIS MORNING.  LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S SHOULD PREVAIL.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ENCROACHING UL JET STREAK.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.  SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MAY BE POSSIBLE.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS DPVA AND SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE IN THE 295-305
TARGET NORTHWEST NEBRASKA FIRST.  BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE THERE...IT/LL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SUFFICIENT
SATURATION...NO PRECIPITATION WAS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID RANGE AND LONG TERM MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH SYSTEMS. IN THE MID TERM HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER NAM SOLUTION. IN THE LONGER TERM DAY 4
AND BEYOND TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT ON A RUN TO RUN BASIS. STILL SOME SNOW COVER OVER THE
CWA WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO
BROKEN BOW. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 40S ON SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH GONE. SUNDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEST WINDS TO STAY UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. 850MB TEMPERATURES
NOT FALLING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS UNTIL 18Z MON. HAVE KEPT RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
THE NORTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR ZR- THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OVER
NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THIS FORECAST AS BUFKIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS PRETTY SILENT ON PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED WITH
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH. BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. COLDER
MODIFIED CANADIAN FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WINDY. SNOW ENDING TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. RIGHT NOW AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TUESDAY COLDER WITH WIND DIMINISHING HIGHS IN
THE 30S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED WITH FRESH
SNOW. TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WARMUP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM. HAVE
RETAINED CHANCE POPS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD FORECAST
THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND COOLING INTO
THE 20S ON FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VISIBILITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT AS
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL FOG
AND/OR STRATUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH
THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS SHOULD LARGELY ESCAPE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY/CEILINGS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KLBF FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT COULD IMPEDE A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AT KLBF...UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 202201
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
401 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48. POTENT GULF OF ALASKA STORM MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED
OUT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND FOG POTENTIAL.  LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE
FOG ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
REVEAL A SATURATED BL WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.  MAIN CONCERN TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IS A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.  FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOG AND WAIT TO SEE HOW TRENDS PLAY OUT.  THE PRESENCE OF THE
PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 2-3 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER THAN THAT OF THIS MORNING.  LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S SHOULD PREVAIL.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ENCROACHING UL JET STREAK.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.  SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MAY BE POSSIBLE.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS DPVA AND SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE IN THE 295-305
TARGET NORTHWEST NEBRASKA FIRST.  BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE THERE...IT/LL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SUFFICIENT
SATURATION...NO PRECIPITATION WAS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID RANGE AND LONG TERM MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH SYSTEMS. IN THE MID TERM HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER NAM SOLUTION. IN THE LONGER TERM DAY 4
AND BEYOND TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT ON A RUN TO RUN BASIS. STILL SOME SNOW COVER OVER THE
CWA WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO
BROKEN BOW. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 40S ON SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH GONE. SUNDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEST WINDS TO STAY UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. 850MB TEMPERATURES
NOT FALLING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS UNTIL 18Z MON. HAVE KEPT RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
THE NORTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR ZR- THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OVER
NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THIS FORECAST AS BUFKIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS PRETTY SILENT ON PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED WITH
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH. BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. COLDER
MODIFIED CANADIAN FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WINDY. SNOW ENDING TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. RIGHT NOW AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TUESDAY COLDER WITH WIND DIMINISHING HIGHS IN
THE 30S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED WITH FRESH
SNOW. TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WARMUP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM. HAVE
RETAINED CHANCE POPS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD FORECAST
THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND COOLING INTO
THE 20S ON FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VISIBILITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT AS
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL FOG
AND/OR STRATUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH
THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS SHOULD LARGELY ESCAPE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY/CEILINGS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KLBF FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT COULD IMPEDE A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AT KLBF...UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 202201
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
401 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48. POTENT GULF OF ALASKA STORM MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED
OUT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND FOG POTENTIAL.  LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE
FOG ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
REVEAL A SATURATED BL WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.  MAIN CONCERN TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IS A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.  FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOG AND WAIT TO SEE HOW TRENDS PLAY OUT.  THE PRESENCE OF THE
PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 2-3 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER THAN THAT OF THIS MORNING.  LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S SHOULD PREVAIL.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ENCROACHING UL JET STREAK.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.  SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MAY BE POSSIBLE.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS DPVA AND SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE IN THE 295-305
TARGET NORTHWEST NEBRASKA FIRST.  BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE THERE...IT/LL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SUFFICIENT
SATURATION...NO PRECIPITATION WAS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID RANGE AND LONG TERM MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH SYSTEMS. IN THE MID TERM HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER NAM SOLUTION. IN THE LONGER TERM DAY 4
AND BEYOND TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT ON A RUN TO RUN BASIS. STILL SOME SNOW COVER OVER THE
CWA WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO
BROKEN BOW. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 40S ON SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH GONE. SUNDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEST WINDS TO STAY UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. 850MB TEMPERATURES
NOT FALLING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS UNTIL 18Z MON. HAVE KEPT RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
THE NORTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR ZR- THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OVER
NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THIS FORECAST AS BUFKIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS PRETTY SILENT ON PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED WITH
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH. BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. COLDER
MODIFIED CANADIAN FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WINDY. SNOW ENDING TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. RIGHT NOW AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TUESDAY COLDER WITH WIND DIMINISHING HIGHS IN
THE 30S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED WITH FRESH
SNOW. TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WARMUP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM. HAVE
RETAINED CHANCE POPS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD FORECAST
THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND COOLING INTO
THE 20S ON FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VISIBILITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT AS
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL FOG
AND/OR STRATUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH
THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS SHOULD LARGELY ESCAPE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY/CEILINGS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KLBF FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT COULD IMPEDE A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AT KLBF...UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 202201
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
401 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48. POTENT GULF OF ALASKA STORM MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLED
OUT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND FOG POTENTIAL.  LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE
FOG ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
REVEAL A SATURATED BL WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.  MAIN CONCERN TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IS A TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.  FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOG AND WAIT TO SEE HOW TRENDS PLAY OUT.  THE PRESENCE OF THE
PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWS OF 2-3 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER THAN THAT OF THIS MORNING.  LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S SHOULD PREVAIL.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ENCROACHING UL JET STREAK.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.  SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MAY BE POSSIBLE.  PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND THE 00Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS DPVA AND SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE IN THE 295-305
TARGET NORTHWEST NEBRASKA FIRST.  BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE THERE...IT/LL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SUFFICIENT
SATURATION...NO PRECIPITATION WAS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 4 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID RANGE AND LONG TERM MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH SYSTEMS. IN THE MID TERM HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER NAM SOLUTION. IN THE LONGER TERM DAY 4
AND BEYOND TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT ON A RUN TO RUN BASIS. STILL SOME SNOW COVER OVER THE
CWA WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO
BROKEN BOW. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF 40S ON SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD BE
PRETTY MUCH GONE. SUNDAY NIGHT...PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WEST WINDS TO STAY UP MOST OF THE
NIGHT HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. 850MB TEMPERATURES
NOT FALLING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS UNTIL 18Z MON. HAVE KEPT RAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
THE NORTHWEST WITH A CHANCE FOR ZR- THROUGH THE SANDHILLS OVER
NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH THIS FORECAST AS BUFKIT AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS PRETTY SILENT ON PRECIPITATION. CONTINUED WITH
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH. BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. COLDER
MODIFIED CANADIAN FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WINDY. SNOW ENDING TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. RIGHT NOW AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TUESDAY COLDER WITH WIND DIMINISHING HIGHS IN
THE 30S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED WITH FRESH
SNOW. TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. WARMUP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM. HAVE
RETAINED CHANCE POPS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL HOLD FORECAST
THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY AND COOLING INTO
THE 20S ON FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VISIBILITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT AS
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL FOG
AND/OR STRATUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH
THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS SHOULD LARGELY ESCAPE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY/CEILINGS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KLBF FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT COULD IMPEDE A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AT KLBF...UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KGID 202139
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
339 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS THE AREA OF PERSISTENT STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS BUT
THE THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER FROM THE WEST THE STRATUS IS
BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE. IN THE STRATUS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE IN THE 30S...BUT AREAS WITH SUNSHINE HAVE WARMED MORE
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PERIOD ONCE AGAIN IS THE FOG CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AT 925MB HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE STRATUS THE BEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT THE NORTHEAST REMAINS WITH
CLOUDS. IN THE SOUTHEAST THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG NEAR THE
EDGES OF THE STRATUS. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG SINCE VISIBILITY AT KJYR STILL HAS LOW VISIBILITY. ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THE EAST IS THE BEST CHANCE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BIT FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP TO MIX THINGS UP A BIT AND THE FOG AND STRATUS
MAY FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

WE KICK OFF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AS A STRONG JET HEADS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH..FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOST OF
THE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SO I AM NOT GOING ALL THAT HIGH WITH CHANCES HERE. A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP KICK
SOMETHING UP IN THE EVENING...THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW...BUT SMALL
FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT TO BE VERY EXACT WITH TIMING.  KEEPING THIS
ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION EXITS WITH THIS PERTURBATION. ANOTHER PERTURBATION
WORKS AROUND THE TROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES APPEAR TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATION NO MORE THAN AN INCH ANTICIPATED WITH THIS NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST WITH
EXACT TIMING.

FLOW IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE ROCKIES. A PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF AHEAD OF THE
MAIN WAVE...BUT LOOKS MORE FOCUSED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. WE COULD
GET SOME SNOW OUT OF THIS...BUT AGAIN...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL
GET A LOT OUT OF SNOW. WE SHOULD GET A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FRIDAY
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND THE WIND COULD BE QUITE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...MAKING THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS POTENTIALLY BRISK AND
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA.
SATELLITE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO BE AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WILL KEEP WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN BELIEVE THAT THE
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE...BUT NOT ESCAPE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
IF IT DOES NOT MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT WILL RETURN
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT. KEAR TERMINAL HAS A LITTLE LIGHT FOG
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 202139
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
339 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS THE AREA OF PERSISTENT STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS BUT
THE THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER FROM THE WEST THE STRATUS IS
BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE. IN THE STRATUS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE IN THE 30S...BUT AREAS WITH SUNSHINE HAVE WARMED MORE
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PERIOD ONCE AGAIN IS THE FOG CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AT 925MB HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE STRATUS THE BEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT THE NORTHEAST REMAINS WITH
CLOUDS. IN THE SOUTHEAST THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG NEAR THE
EDGES OF THE STRATUS. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG SINCE VISIBILITY AT KJYR STILL HAS LOW VISIBILITY. ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THE EAST IS THE BEST CHANCE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BIT FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP TO MIX THINGS UP A BIT AND THE FOG AND STRATUS
MAY FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

WE KICK OFF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AS A STRONG JET HEADS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH..FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOST OF
THE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SO I AM NOT GOING ALL THAT HIGH WITH CHANCES HERE. A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP KICK
SOMETHING UP IN THE EVENING...THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW...BUT SMALL
FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT TO BE VERY EXACT WITH TIMING.  KEEPING THIS
ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION EXITS WITH THIS PERTURBATION. ANOTHER PERTURBATION
WORKS AROUND THE TROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES APPEAR TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATION NO MORE THAN AN INCH ANTICIPATED WITH THIS NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST WITH
EXACT TIMING.

FLOW IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE ROCKIES. A PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF AHEAD OF THE
MAIN WAVE...BUT LOOKS MORE FOCUSED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. WE COULD
GET SOME SNOW OUT OF THIS...BUT AGAIN...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL
GET A LOT OUT OF SNOW. WE SHOULD GET A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FRIDAY
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND THE WIND COULD BE QUITE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...MAKING THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS POTENTIALLY BRISK AND
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA.
SATELLITE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO BE AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WILL KEEP WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN BELIEVE THAT THE
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE...BUT NOT ESCAPE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
IF IT DOES NOT MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT WILL RETURN
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT. KEAR TERMINAL HAS A LITTLE LIGHT FOG
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 202139
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
339 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS THE AREA OF PERSISTENT STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS BUT
THE THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER FROM THE WEST THE STRATUS IS
BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE. IN THE STRATUS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE IN THE 30S...BUT AREAS WITH SUNSHINE HAVE WARMED MORE
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PERIOD ONCE AGAIN IS THE FOG CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AT 925MB HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE STRATUS THE BEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT THE NORTHEAST REMAINS WITH
CLOUDS. IN THE SOUTHEAST THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG NEAR THE
EDGES OF THE STRATUS. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG SINCE VISIBILITY AT KJYR STILL HAS LOW VISIBILITY. ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THE EAST IS THE BEST CHANCE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BIT FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP TO MIX THINGS UP A BIT AND THE FOG AND STRATUS
MAY FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

WE KICK OFF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AS A STRONG JET HEADS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH..FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOST OF
THE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SO I AM NOT GOING ALL THAT HIGH WITH CHANCES HERE. A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP KICK
SOMETHING UP IN THE EVENING...THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW...BUT SMALL
FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT TO BE VERY EXACT WITH TIMING.  KEEPING THIS
ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION EXITS WITH THIS PERTURBATION. ANOTHER PERTURBATION
WORKS AROUND THE TROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES APPEAR TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATION NO MORE THAN AN INCH ANTICIPATED WITH THIS NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST WITH
EXACT TIMING.

FLOW IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE ROCKIES. A PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF AHEAD OF THE
MAIN WAVE...BUT LOOKS MORE FOCUSED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. WE COULD
GET SOME SNOW OUT OF THIS...BUT AGAIN...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL
GET A LOT OUT OF SNOW. WE SHOULD GET A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FRIDAY
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND THE WIND COULD BE QUITE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...MAKING THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS POTENTIALLY BRISK AND
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA.
SATELLITE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO BE AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WILL KEEP WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN BELIEVE THAT THE
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE...BUT NOT ESCAPE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
IF IT DOES NOT MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT WILL RETURN
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT. KEAR TERMINAL HAS A LITTLE LIGHT FOG
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 202139
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
339 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS THE AREA OF PERSISTENT STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS MOVED LITTLE IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS BUT
THE THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER FROM THE WEST THE STRATUS IS
BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE. IN THE STRATUS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE IN THE 30S...BUT AREAS WITH SUNSHINE HAVE WARMED MORE
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PERIOD ONCE AGAIN IS THE FOG CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT
IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AT 925MB HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE STRATUS THE BEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT THE NORTHEAST REMAINS WITH
CLOUDS. IN THE SOUTHEAST THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG NEAR THE
EDGES OF THE STRATUS. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
WEST AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE EAST WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG SINCE VISIBILITY AT KJYR STILL HAS LOW VISIBILITY. ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THE EAST IS THE BEST CHANCE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BIT FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP TO MIX THINGS UP A BIT AND THE FOG AND STRATUS
MAY FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

WE KICK OFF THE LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AS A STRONG JET HEADS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH..FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOST OF
THE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SO I AM NOT GOING ALL THAT HIGH WITH CHANCES HERE. A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP KICK
SOMETHING UP IN THE EVENING...THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW...BUT SMALL
FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT TO BE VERY EXACT WITH TIMING.  KEEPING THIS
ALL RAIN AS TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION EXITS WITH THIS PERTURBATION. ANOTHER PERTURBATION
WORKS AROUND THE TROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES APPEAR TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATION NO MORE THAN AN INCH ANTICIPATED WITH THIS NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST WITH
EXACT TIMING.

FLOW IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE ROCKIES. A PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF AHEAD OF THE
MAIN WAVE...BUT LOOKS MORE FOCUSED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. WE COULD
GET SOME SNOW OUT OF THIS...BUT AGAIN...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL
GET A LOT OUT OF SNOW. WE SHOULD GET A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FRIDAY
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND THE WIND COULD BE QUITE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...MAKING THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS POTENTIALLY BRISK AND
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA.
SATELLITE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO BE AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WILL KEEP WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN BELIEVE THAT THE
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE...BUT NOT ESCAPE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
IF IT DOES NOT MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT WILL RETURN
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT. KEAR TERMINAL HAS A LITTLE LIGHT FOG
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KOAX 202104
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
304 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANOTHER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN OR
SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY WAS SEEN THIS
MORNING...BETWEEN AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES. EXITING TROUGH
PRODUCED ENOUGH LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD SLIPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING. MINOR IMPACTS TO SIDEWALKS AND ELEVATED SURFACE WERE
SEEN...BUT NOT A HUGE TRAVEL HAZARD. EXPECT A REPEAT TO THE DRIZZLE
SCENARIO TONIGHT AS ROCKIES TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...PUTTING OUR AREA UNDER CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/LIFT OVER
SATURATED SURFACE LAYER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW PUSHES DEW POINTS TO OR ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE CWA MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL KICK UP A BIT MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
TURN A TAD WEST OF SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS COULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS IN A FEW AREAS...BUT PLAYING
IT PESSIMISTIC ON THE SHORTEST DAY OF THE YEAR APPEARS PRUDENT.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO OR ABOVE 40 MOST AREAS.

MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. BROAD ASCENT ON EAST SIDE OF
TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT. EXPECT PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS BOUNDARY ROTATES EAST THEN NORTHEAST. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION OVER SURFACE FRONT IS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS WITH 850
JET OVER 40KT RIDING ISENTROPES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF OUR AREA BY
NOON. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH
THIS TIME AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER PRECIP ENDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR IN THE LOWEST 6000FT DURING PRECIPITATION.

SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD FOR A TIME MONDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW SWINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CWA LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BY THIS TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL AREAS. MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH CHANCES
DIMINISHING TO NEAR ZERO AS WE HEAD TO THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDERS. AVERAGE QPF FROM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER DROPPING TO A HALF
INCH OR LESS ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SHORTWAVE ROTATES FAR ENOUGH EAST. CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS THEN IN
THE 30S WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
LONGER TERM FORECAST CONCERN.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN
THE WESTERN STATES...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK.

MODELS...AT LEAST THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN REGARDS TO STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING
OUT ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE TRANSITION FROM NORTH OR
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WARMING. SO
TEMPERATURES MAY GAIN A FEW DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT AMOUNT OF WARMING. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE 30S EACH DAY.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES ON EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
IN PRECIP AREAS SUGGEST AN ALL SNOW EVENT...AND FAVORING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOKING LIKE A FEW INCHES AT
THE MAX. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ONCE AGAIN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL BE UNDER DREARY
GRAY BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE. LIFR AND IFR CLOUD DECK EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF KONL TO
JUST WEST OF KHSI AND KHJH. WEST OF THAT LINE SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS YOU APPROACH THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. WITH LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY BIG IMPROVEMENTS AT ANY OF THE THREE TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DID PUT IN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 22Z BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORECAST AND BY03Z
OR 04 Z WOULD EXPECT IVF AND LIFR TO SETTLE IN AGAIN. DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION -FZDZ AT THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AS IT
WILL BE VERY PATCHY IN NATURE IF THERE IS ANY AT ALL.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 202104
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
304 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANOTHER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN OR
SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY WAS SEEN THIS
MORNING...BETWEEN AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES. EXITING TROUGH
PRODUCED ENOUGH LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD SLIPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING. MINOR IMPACTS TO SIDEWALKS AND ELEVATED SURFACE WERE
SEEN...BUT NOT A HUGE TRAVEL HAZARD. EXPECT A REPEAT TO THE DRIZZLE
SCENARIO TONIGHT AS ROCKIES TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...PUTTING OUR AREA UNDER CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/LIFT OVER
SATURATED SURFACE LAYER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW PUSHES DEW POINTS TO OR ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE CWA MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL KICK UP A BIT MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
TURN A TAD WEST OF SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS COULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS IN A FEW AREAS...BUT PLAYING
IT PESSIMISTIC ON THE SHORTEST DAY OF THE YEAR APPEARS PRUDENT.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO OR ABOVE 40 MOST AREAS.

MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. BROAD ASCENT ON EAST SIDE OF
TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT. EXPECT PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS BOUNDARY ROTATES EAST THEN NORTHEAST. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION OVER SURFACE FRONT IS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS WITH 850
JET OVER 40KT RIDING ISENTROPES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF OUR AREA BY
NOON. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH
THIS TIME AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER PRECIP ENDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR IN THE LOWEST 6000FT DURING PRECIPITATION.

SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD FOR A TIME MONDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW SWINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CWA LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BY THIS TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL AREAS. MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH CHANCES
DIMINISHING TO NEAR ZERO AS WE HEAD TO THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDERS. AVERAGE QPF FROM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER DROPPING TO A HALF
INCH OR LESS ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SHORTWAVE ROTATES FAR ENOUGH EAST. CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS THEN IN
THE 30S WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
LONGER TERM FORECAST CONCERN.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN
THE WESTERN STATES...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK.

MODELS...AT LEAST THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN REGARDS TO STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING
OUT ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE TRANSITION FROM NORTH OR
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WARMING. SO
TEMPERATURES MAY GAIN A FEW DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT AMOUNT OF WARMING. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE 30S EACH DAY.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES ON EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
IN PRECIP AREAS SUGGEST AN ALL SNOW EVENT...AND FAVORING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOKING LIKE A FEW INCHES AT
THE MAX. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ONCE AGAIN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL BE UNDER DREARY
GRAY BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE. LIFR AND IFR CLOUD DECK EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF KONL TO
JUST WEST OF KHSI AND KHJH. WEST OF THAT LINE SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS YOU APPROACH THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. WITH LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY BIG IMPROVEMENTS AT ANY OF THE THREE TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DID PUT IN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 22Z BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORECAST AND BY03Z
OR 04 Z WOULD EXPECT IVF AND LIFR TO SETTLE IN AGAIN. DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION -FZDZ AT THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AS IT
WILL BE VERY PATCHY IN NATURE IF THERE IS ANY AT ALL.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 202104
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
304 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANOTHER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN OR
SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY WAS SEEN THIS
MORNING...BETWEEN AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES. EXITING TROUGH
PRODUCED ENOUGH LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD SLIPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING. MINOR IMPACTS TO SIDEWALKS AND ELEVATED SURFACE WERE
SEEN...BUT NOT A HUGE TRAVEL HAZARD. EXPECT A REPEAT TO THE DRIZZLE
SCENARIO TONIGHT AS ROCKIES TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...PUTTING OUR AREA UNDER CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/LIFT OVER
SATURATED SURFACE LAYER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW PUSHES DEW POINTS TO OR ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE CWA MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL KICK UP A BIT MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
TURN A TAD WEST OF SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS COULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS IN A FEW AREAS...BUT PLAYING
IT PESSIMISTIC ON THE SHORTEST DAY OF THE YEAR APPEARS PRUDENT.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO OR ABOVE 40 MOST AREAS.

MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. BROAD ASCENT ON EAST SIDE OF
TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT. EXPECT PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS BOUNDARY ROTATES EAST THEN NORTHEAST. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION OVER SURFACE FRONT IS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS WITH 850
JET OVER 40KT RIDING ISENTROPES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF OUR AREA BY
NOON. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH
THIS TIME AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER PRECIP ENDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR IN THE LOWEST 6000FT DURING PRECIPITATION.

SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD FOR A TIME MONDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW SWINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CWA LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BY THIS TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL AREAS. MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH CHANCES
DIMINISHING TO NEAR ZERO AS WE HEAD TO THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDERS. AVERAGE QPF FROM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER DROPPING TO A HALF
INCH OR LESS ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SHORTWAVE ROTATES FAR ENOUGH EAST. CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS THEN IN
THE 30S WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
LONGER TERM FORECAST CONCERN.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN
THE WESTERN STATES...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK.

MODELS...AT LEAST THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN REGARDS TO STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING
OUT ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE TRANSITION FROM NORTH OR
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WARMING. SO
TEMPERATURES MAY GAIN A FEW DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT AMOUNT OF WARMING. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE 30S EACH DAY.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES ON EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
IN PRECIP AREAS SUGGEST AN ALL SNOW EVENT...AND FAVORING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOKING LIKE A FEW INCHES AT
THE MAX. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ONCE AGAIN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL BE UNDER DREARY
GRAY BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE. LIFR AND IFR CLOUD DECK EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF KONL TO
JUST WEST OF KHSI AND KHJH. WEST OF THAT LINE SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS YOU APPROACH THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. WITH LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY BIG IMPROVEMENTS AT ANY OF THE THREE TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DID PUT IN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 22Z BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORECAST AND BY03Z
OR 04 Z WOULD EXPECT IVF AND LIFR TO SETTLE IN AGAIN. DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION -FZDZ AT THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AS IT
WILL BE VERY PATCHY IN NATURE IF THERE IS ANY AT ALL.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 202104
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
304 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ANOTHER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...THEN RAIN OR
SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY WAS SEEN THIS
MORNING...BETWEEN AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES. EXITING TROUGH
PRODUCED ENOUGH LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAD SLIPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING. MINOR IMPACTS TO SIDEWALKS AND ELEVATED SURFACE WERE
SEEN...BUT NOT A HUGE TRAVEL HAZARD. EXPECT A REPEAT TO THE DRIZZLE
SCENARIO TONIGHT AS ROCKIES TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS...PUTTING OUR AREA UNDER CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION/LIFT OVER
SATURATED SURFACE LAYER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW PUSHES DEW POINTS TO OR ABOVE FREEZING.

EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE CWA MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL KICK UP A BIT MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY
TURN A TAD WEST OF SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS COULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS IN A FEW AREAS...BUT PLAYING
IT PESSIMISTIC ON THE SHORTEST DAY OF THE YEAR APPEARS PRUDENT.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RISE TO OR ABOVE 40 MOST AREAS.

MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. BROAD ASCENT ON EAST SIDE OF
TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT. EXPECT PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS BOUNDARY ROTATES EAST THEN NORTHEAST. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION OVER SURFACE FRONT IS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS WITH 850
JET OVER 40KT RIDING ISENTROPES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WORK EAST OF OUR AREA BY
NOON. IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH
THIS TIME AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER PRECIP ENDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR IN THE LOWEST 6000FT DURING PRECIPITATION.

SHOULD SEE A PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD FOR A TIME MONDAY BEFORE
UPPER LOW SWINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE CWA LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BY THIS TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL AREAS. MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH CHANCES
DIMINISHING TO NEAR ZERO AS WE HEAD TO THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDERS. AVERAGE QPF FROM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER DROPPING TO A HALF
INCH OR LESS ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SHORTWAVE ROTATES FAR ENOUGH EAST. CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS THEN IN
THE 30S WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SNOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
LONGER TERM FORECAST CONCERN.

UPPER TROUGH/LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN IN
THE WESTERN STATES...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK.

MODELS...AT LEAST THE 12Z VERSIONS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF...ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN REGARDS TO STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING
OUT ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF IT...THE TRANSITION FROM NORTH OR
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED GRADUAL LOW LEVEL WARMING. SO
TEMPERATURES MAY GAIN A FEW DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT AMOUNT OF WARMING. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE 30S EACH DAY.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMMENCES ON EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
IN PRECIP AREAS SUGGEST AN ALL SNOW EVENT...AND FAVORING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOKING LIKE A FEW INCHES AT
THE MAX. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ONCE AGAIN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL BE UNDER DREARY
GRAY BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE. LIFR AND IFR CLOUD DECK EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF KONL TO
JUST WEST OF KHSI AND KHJH. WEST OF THAT LINE SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS YOU APPROACH THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. WITH LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY BIG IMPROVEMENTS AT ANY OF THE THREE TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DID PUT IN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 22Z BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORECAST AND BY03Z
OR 04 Z WOULD EXPECT IVF AND LIFR TO SETTLE IN AGAIN. DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION -FZDZ AT THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AS IT
WILL BE VERY PATCHY IN NATURE IF THERE IS ANY AT ALL.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KGID 202013
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
213 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FINALLY THE VISIBILITIES HAVE LIFTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG HAT HAVE LOWER
VISIBILITIES...BUT THE MORE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG HAS GONE FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

HAVE ONCE AGAIN EXTENDED THE TIME FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FOG MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
HAVE SOME CONCERN WHETHER THE FOG WILL LIFT. IF IT DOES NOT LIFT
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE DENSE FOG IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL NOON FOR MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND
HAVE ADDED IN COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE THE FOG HAS
EXPANDED INTO. THE WESTERN EDGE IS TRYING TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW IT PROGRESSES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA.
SATELLITE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO BE AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WILL KEEP WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN BELIEVE THAT THE
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE...BUT NOT ESCAPE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
IF IT DOES NOT MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT WILL RETURN
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT. KEAR TERMINAL HAS A LITTLE LIGHT FOG
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JCB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 202013
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
213 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FINALLY THE VISIBILITIES HAVE LIFTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG HAT HAVE LOWER
VISIBILITIES...BUT THE MORE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG HAS GONE FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

HAVE ONCE AGAIN EXTENDED THE TIME FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FOG MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
HAVE SOME CONCERN WHETHER THE FOG WILL LIFT. IF IT DOES NOT LIFT
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE DENSE FOG IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL NOON FOR MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND
HAVE ADDED IN COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE THE FOG HAS
EXPANDED INTO. THE WESTERN EDGE IS TRYING TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW IT PROGRESSES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA.
SATELLITE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO BE AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WILL KEEP WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN BELIEVE THAT THE
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE...BUT NOT ESCAPE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
IF IT DOES NOT MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT WILL RETURN
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT. KEAR TERMINAL HAS A LITTLE LIGHT FOG
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JCB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 202013
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
213 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FINALLY THE VISIBILITIES HAVE LIFTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG HAT HAVE LOWER
VISIBILITIES...BUT THE MORE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG HAS GONE FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

HAVE ONCE AGAIN EXTENDED THE TIME FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FOG MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
HAVE SOME CONCERN WHETHER THE FOG WILL LIFT. IF IT DOES NOT LIFT
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE DENSE FOG IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL NOON FOR MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND
HAVE ADDED IN COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE THE FOG HAS
EXPANDED INTO. THE WESTERN EDGE IS TRYING TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW IT PROGRESSES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA.
SATELLITE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO BE AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WILL KEEP WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN BELIEVE THAT THE
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE...BUT NOT ESCAPE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
IF IT DOES NOT MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT WILL RETURN
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT. KEAR TERMINAL HAS A LITTLE LIGHT FOG
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JCB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 202013
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
213 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FINALLY THE VISIBILITIES HAVE LIFTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG HAT HAVE LOWER
VISIBILITIES...BUT THE MORE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG HAS GONE FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

HAVE ONCE AGAIN EXTENDED THE TIME FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FOG MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
HAVE SOME CONCERN WHETHER THE FOG WILL LIFT. IF IT DOES NOT LIFT
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE DENSE FOG IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL NOON FOR MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND
HAVE ADDED IN COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE THE FOG HAS
EXPANDED INTO. THE WESTERN EDGE IS TRYING TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW IT PROGRESSES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA.
SATELLITE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO BE AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WILL KEEP WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN BELIEVE THAT THE
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE...BUT NOT ESCAPE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
IF IT DOES NOT MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT WILL RETURN
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT. KEAR TERMINAL HAS A LITTLE LIGHT FOG
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JCB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 201812
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1212 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

HAVE ONCE AGAIN EXTENDED THE TIME FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FOG MAY IMPROVE A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
HAVE SOME CONCERN WHETHER THE FOG WILL LIFT. IF IT DOES NOT LIFT
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE DENSE FOG IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL NOON FOR MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND
HAVE ADDED IN COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE THE FOG HAS
EXPANDED INTO. THE WESTERN EDGE IS TRYING TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW IT PROGRESSES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA.
SATELLITE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO BE AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WILL KEEP WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN BELIEVE THAT THE
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE...BUT NOT ESCAPE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
IF IT DOES NOT MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT WILL RETURN
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT. KEAR TERMINAL HAS A LITTLE LIGHT FOG
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JCB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KOAX 201748
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1148 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.  FARTHER
OUT...POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED FROM 1.4KFT TO 2.8KFT WITH
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A 100KT+ H3 WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
WITH A SECOND JET STRETCHING FROM BAJA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  COMPLEX H5 PATTERN WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
IN THE FLOW.  AT 00Z...THERE WAS A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ANOTHER LONGER WAVE TROF HEADING FOR THE PLAINS TODAY AND
SUNDAY. OF NOTE ON THE H85 CHART WAS THAT THE COLD AIR WAS WELL TO
THE NORTH FROM MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY WITH MILD AI

THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY IMPROVING
TO MVFR FOR SOME TIME THIS AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DROPPING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR.R ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS WERE APPROACHING CENTRAL CANADA WITH
ANOTHER AREA SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST.

WITH A MOIST SOUTH FLOW...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS NEAR ONL AND
HASTING WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING NORTH THROUGH MARYSVILLE. DENSE
FOG WAS NOTED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.  THIS
CLEARING IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS IN THAT
LOCATION AND A 25KT LOW LEVEL JET. VISIBILITIES WERE QUITE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DENSE FOG AROUND ONL TO AURORA AND
PATCHY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES...YET OTHER LOCATIONS
ABOVE SIX MILES. THERE WAS SOME MIST OR FREEZING MIST WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 28 TO 30 IN WESTERN
IOWA AND AROUND 30 TO 32 IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. COLDER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE FOUND FARTHER WEST WHERE IS HAD CLEARED OUT. THE CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE INCREASED MIXING SHOULD FILL BACK IN AS THE
WINDS RELAX. THE SHORTWAVE AT 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL IOWA WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BETTER LIFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO WILL ONLY MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DECREASE
THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
LINCOLN AND COLUMBUS AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE. MOST HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE TODAY.

THERE IS SOME LIFT WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IS WELL
TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. TONIGHT WITH THE LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION DO INCLUDE FOG/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THE NEXT TROF DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
APPEARS STRONGER AND HAS MORE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
INCREASING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGER MONDAY...THUS LINGER THE CHANCES FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY.  IT TAKES A WHILE FOR
THE TROF TO MOVE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S. AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

ONCE AGAIN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL BE UNDER DREARY
GRAY BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE. LIFR AND IFR CLOUD DECK EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF KONL TO
JUST WEST OF KHSI AND KHJH. WEST OF THAT LINE SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS YOU APPROACH THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. WITH LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY BIG IMPROVEMENTS AT ANY OF THE THREE TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DID PUT IN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
AROUND 22Z BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT FORECAST AND BY03Z
OR 04 Z WOULD EXPECT IVF AND LIFR TO SETTLE IN AGAIN. DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION -FZDZ AT THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AS IT
WILL BE VERY PATCHY IN NATURE IF THERE IS ANY AT ALL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KGID 201731
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE DENSE FOG IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL NOON FOR MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND
HAVE ADDED IN COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE THE FOG HAS
EXPANDED INTO. THE WESTERN EDGE IS TRYING TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW IT PROGRESSES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA.
SATELLITE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO BE AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WILL KEEP WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN BELIEVE THAT THE
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE...BUT NOT ESCAPE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
IF IT DOES NOT MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT WILL RETURN
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT. KEAR TERMINAL HAS A LITTLE LIGHT FOG
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ040-041-047>049-
     062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JCB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 201731
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE DENSE FOG IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL NOON FOR MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND
HAVE ADDED IN COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE THE FOG HAS
EXPANDED INTO. THE WESTERN EDGE IS TRYING TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW IT PROGRESSES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA.
SATELLITE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO BE AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WILL KEEP WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN BELIEVE THAT THE
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE...BUT NOT ESCAPE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
IF IT DOES NOT MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT WILL RETURN
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT. KEAR TERMINAL HAS A LITTLE LIGHT FOG
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ040-041-047>049-
     062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JCB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 201731
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE DENSE FOG IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL NOON FOR MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND
HAVE ADDED IN COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE THE FOG HAS
EXPANDED INTO. THE WESTERN EDGE IS TRYING TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW IT PROGRESSES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA.
SATELLITE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO BE AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WILL KEEP WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN BELIEVE THAT THE
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE...BUT NOT ESCAPE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
IF IT DOES NOT MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT WILL RETURN
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT. KEAR TERMINAL HAS A LITTLE LIGHT FOG
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ040-041-047>049-
     062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JCB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 201731
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE DENSE FOG IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL NOON FOR MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND
HAVE ADDED IN COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE THE FOG HAS
EXPANDED INTO. THE WESTERN EDGE IS TRYING TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW IT PROGRESSES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FOG CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA.
SATELLITE HAS NOT SHOWN ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY HAS CONTINUED TO BE AT 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WILL KEEP WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN BELIEVE THAT THE
VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE...BUT NOT ESCAPE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
IF IT DOES NOT MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT IT WILL RETURN
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TONIGHT. KEAR TERMINAL HAS A LITTLE LIGHT FOG
THAT SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ040-041-047>049-
     062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JCB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KLBF 201731
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A LEESIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT WEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER MILE AT
ONL. TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 14 AT VTN TO 25
AT ONL AND 27 AT IML.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z FOR THE EASTERN FOUR
COUNTIES WITH THE CONTINUANCE OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS.
H85 TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM 3C TO 5C SUPPORT HIGHS OF 40 TO 45 MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV
GUIDANCE. THE PRESENCE OF EXISTING SNOW COVER AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TODAY TO LIMIT HIGHS FROM WHATS FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE
LIMITED. MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR THE EASTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STRATUS JUST TO OUR EAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH AND LOWS 18 TO 23 ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT AS SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTER LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND AN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ALASKA. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO WESTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DECENT WARM UP EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD
OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF WARM AIR
ALOFT OVER SPREADING THE AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW MENTION FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST...AS SOUNDING DATA
INDICATES IT WILL JUST BE TOO WARM ALOFT FOR SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW
WRAPS UP ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY...COLDER AIR BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS WRAPPED SOUTH INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PARALLEL RUN OF THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF REMAIN IN AGREEMENT...AND BRING A FAIRLY DECENT
SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS /THROUGH OUR AREA/ CHRISTMAS INTO
FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. THINKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW LATE
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO UP POPS IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK. THERE HAS
BEEN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND CURRENTLY BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 0.20 TO 0.35 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH...SO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
ONE THING TO NOTE...THERE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY STORM...THAT WILL GO THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO JUST PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM. SO SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT
MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...BUT MODELS INSIST THAT A RAPID RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE...WITH THAT MOISTURE WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AND THEN TO THE WEST WITHIN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT WHICH
SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA. WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VISIBILITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT AS
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL FOG
AND/OR STRATUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH
THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS SHOULD LARGELY ESCAPE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY/CEILINGS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KLBF FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT COULD IMPEDE A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AT KLBF...UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 201731
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A LEESIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT WEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER MILE AT
ONL. TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 14 AT VTN TO 25
AT ONL AND 27 AT IML.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z FOR THE EASTERN FOUR
COUNTIES WITH THE CONTINUANCE OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS.
H85 TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM 3C TO 5C SUPPORT HIGHS OF 40 TO 45 MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV
GUIDANCE. THE PRESENCE OF EXISTING SNOW COVER AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TODAY TO LIMIT HIGHS FROM WHATS FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE
LIMITED. MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR THE EASTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STRATUS JUST TO OUR EAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH AND LOWS 18 TO 23 ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT AS SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTER LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND AN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ALASKA. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO WESTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DECENT WARM UP EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD
OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF WARM AIR
ALOFT OVER SPREADING THE AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW MENTION FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST...AS SOUNDING DATA
INDICATES IT WILL JUST BE TOO WARM ALOFT FOR SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW
WRAPS UP ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY...COLDER AIR BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS WRAPPED SOUTH INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PARALLEL RUN OF THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF REMAIN IN AGREEMENT...AND BRING A FAIRLY DECENT
SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS /THROUGH OUR AREA/ CHRISTMAS INTO
FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. THINKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW LATE
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO UP POPS IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK. THERE HAS
BEEN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND CURRENTLY BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 0.20 TO 0.35 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH...SO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
ONE THING TO NOTE...THERE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY STORM...THAT WILL GO THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO JUST PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM. SO SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT
MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...BUT MODELS INSIST THAT A RAPID RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE...WITH THAT MOISTURE WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AND THEN TO THE WEST WITHIN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT WHICH
SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA. WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VISIBILITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT AS
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL FOG
AND/OR STRATUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH
THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS SHOULD LARGELY ESCAPE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY/CEILINGS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KLBF FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT COULD IMPEDE A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AT KLBF...UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 201731
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A LEESIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT WEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER MILE AT
ONL. TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 14 AT VTN TO 25
AT ONL AND 27 AT IML.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z FOR THE EASTERN FOUR
COUNTIES WITH THE CONTINUANCE OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS.
H85 TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM 3C TO 5C SUPPORT HIGHS OF 40 TO 45 MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV
GUIDANCE. THE PRESENCE OF EXISTING SNOW COVER AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TODAY TO LIMIT HIGHS FROM WHATS FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE
LIMITED. MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR THE EASTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STRATUS JUST TO OUR EAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH AND LOWS 18 TO 23 ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT AS SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTER LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND AN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ALASKA. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO WESTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DECENT WARM UP EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD
OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF WARM AIR
ALOFT OVER SPREADING THE AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW MENTION FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST...AS SOUNDING DATA
INDICATES IT WILL JUST BE TOO WARM ALOFT FOR SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW
WRAPS UP ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY...COLDER AIR BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS WRAPPED SOUTH INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PARALLEL RUN OF THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF REMAIN IN AGREEMENT...AND BRING A FAIRLY DECENT
SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS /THROUGH OUR AREA/ CHRISTMAS INTO
FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. THINKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW LATE
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO UP POPS IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK. THERE HAS
BEEN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND CURRENTLY BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 0.20 TO 0.35 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH...SO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
ONE THING TO NOTE...THERE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY STORM...THAT WILL GO THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO JUST PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM. SO SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT
MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...BUT MODELS INSIST THAT A RAPID RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE...WITH THAT MOISTURE WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AND THEN TO THE WEST WITHIN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT WHICH
SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA. WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VISIBILITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT AS
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL FOG
AND/OR STRATUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH
THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS SHOULD LARGELY ESCAPE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY/CEILINGS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KLBF FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT COULD IMPEDE A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AT KLBF...UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 201731
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A LEESIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT WEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER MILE AT
ONL. TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 14 AT VTN TO 25
AT ONL AND 27 AT IML.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z FOR THE EASTERN FOUR
COUNTIES WITH THE CONTINUANCE OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS.
H85 TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM 3C TO 5C SUPPORT HIGHS OF 40 TO 45 MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV
GUIDANCE. THE PRESENCE OF EXISTING SNOW COVER AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TODAY TO LIMIT HIGHS FROM WHATS FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE
LIMITED. MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR THE EASTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STRATUS JUST TO OUR EAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH AND LOWS 18 TO 23 ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT AS SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTER LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND AN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ALASKA. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO WESTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DECENT WARM UP EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD
OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF WARM AIR
ALOFT OVER SPREADING THE AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW MENTION FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST...AS SOUNDING DATA
INDICATES IT WILL JUST BE TOO WARM ALOFT FOR SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW
WRAPS UP ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY...COLDER AIR BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS WRAPPED SOUTH INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PARALLEL RUN OF THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF REMAIN IN AGREEMENT...AND BRING A FAIRLY DECENT
SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS /THROUGH OUR AREA/ CHRISTMAS INTO
FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. THINKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW LATE
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO UP POPS IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK. THERE HAS
BEEN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND CURRENTLY BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 0.20 TO 0.35 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH...SO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
ONE THING TO NOTE...THERE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY STORM...THAT WILL GO THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO JUST PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM. SO SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT
MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...BUT MODELS INSIST THAT A RAPID RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE...WITH THAT MOISTURE WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AND THEN TO THE WEST WITHIN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT WHICH
SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA. WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VISIBILITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT AS
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL FOG
AND/OR STRATUS ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH
THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS SHOULD LARGELY ESCAPE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY/CEILINGS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KLBF FROM 06-12Z SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT COULD IMPEDE A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AT KLBF...UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN LIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS








000
FXUS63 KGID 201552
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
952 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE DENSE FOG IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL NOON FOR MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND
HAVE ADDED IN COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE THE FOG HAS
EXPEANDED INTO. THE WESTERN EDGE IS TRYING TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW IT PROGRESSES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR KEAR. VLIFR TO START FOR
KGRI...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KGRI LATER TODAY.

STRATUS...WITH A BASE IN THE 100-500FT AGL RANGE...PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO
KGRI AND KK61. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 1/4SM IN FOG ALSO
PERSISTS GENERALLY ALONG THE SAME LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND
KK61. UNFORTUNATELY...SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THROUGH THE PAST HOUR OR SO INDICATE THE STRATUS AND FOG HAS
STALLED AND IS NO LONGER MOVING EAST AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...IT NOW APPEARS VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AT KGRI THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FOR KGRI
12-16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST 16Z ONWARD. OBVIOUSLY
THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH TAF AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE SHOULD THE STRATUS DECIDE TO MOVE OUT MORE QUICKLY OR
WORSE...LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AS FOR KEAR...THE
STRATUS APPEARS SAFELY EAST FOR NOW AND THUS THE VFR FORECAST.
THAT SAID...TAF AMENDMENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR KEAR SHOULD THE
STRATUS DECIDE TO RETROGRADE WEST...BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
THAT...AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THE STRATUS WILL
MOVE BACK WEST THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND AT BOTH TAF SITES
WILL START FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KTS LATER TODAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ040-041-047>049-
     062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JCB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 201552
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
952 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE DENSE FOG IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER FOR SOME AREAS. HAVE
EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL NOON FOR MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND
HAVE ADDED IN COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE THE FOG HAS
EXPEANDED INTO. THE WESTERN EDGE IS TRYING TO MOVE TO THE EAST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW IT PROGRESSES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR KEAR. VLIFR TO START FOR
KGRI...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KGRI LATER TODAY.

STRATUS...WITH A BASE IN THE 100-500FT AGL RANGE...PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO
KGRI AND KK61. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 1/4SM IN FOG ALSO
PERSISTS GENERALLY ALONG THE SAME LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND
KK61. UNFORTUNATELY...SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THROUGH THE PAST HOUR OR SO INDICATE THE STRATUS AND FOG HAS
STALLED AND IS NO LONGER MOVING EAST AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...IT NOW APPEARS VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AT KGRI THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FOR KGRI
12-16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST 16Z ONWARD. OBVIOUSLY
THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH TAF AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE SHOULD THE STRATUS DECIDE TO MOVE OUT MORE QUICKLY OR
WORSE...LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AS FOR KEAR...THE
STRATUS APPEARS SAFELY EAST FOR NOW AND THUS THE VFR FORECAST.
THAT SAID...TAF AMENDMENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR KEAR SHOULD THE
STRATUS DECIDE TO RETROGRADE WEST...BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
THAT...AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THE STRATUS WILL
MOVE BACK WEST THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND AT BOTH TAF SITES
WILL START FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KTS LATER TODAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ040-041-047>049-
     062>064-076-077-086-087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JCB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 201150
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
550 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A LEESIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT WEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER MILE AT
ONL. TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 14 AT VTN TO 25
AT ONL AND 27 AT IML.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z FOR THE EASTERN FOUR
COUNTIES WITH THE CONTINUANCE OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS.
H85 TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM 3C TO 5C SUPPORT HIGHS OF 40 TO 45 MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV
GUIDANCE. THE PRESENCE OF EXISTING SNOW COVER AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TODAY TO LIMIT HIGHS FROM WHATS FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE
LIMITED. MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR THE EASTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STRATUS JUST TO OUR EAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH AND LOWS 18 TO 23 ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT AS SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTER LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND AN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ALASKA. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO WESTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DECENT WARM UP EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD
OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF WARM AIR
ALOFT OVER SPREADING THE AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW MENTION FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST...AS SOUNDING DATA
INDICATES IT WILL JUST BE TOO WARM ALOFT FOR SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW
WRAPS UP ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY...COLDER AIR BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS WRAPPED SOUTH INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PARALLEL RUN OF THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF REMAIN IN AGREEMENT...AND BRING A FAIRLY DECENT
SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS /THROUGH OUR AREA/ CHRISTMAS INTO
FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. THINKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW LATE
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO UP POPS IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK. THERE HAS
BEEN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND CURRENTLY BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 0.20 TO 0.35 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH...SO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
ONE THING TO NOTE...THERE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY STORM...THAT WILL GO THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO JUST PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM. SO SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT
MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...BUT MODELS INSIST THAT A RAPID RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE...WITH THAT MOISTURE WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AND THEN TO THE WEST WITHIN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT WHICH
SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA. WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LIFR IS EXPECTED CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
VFR/LOCAL MVFR IN FOG IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH 15Z. VFR IS
EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 FROM 15Z ONWARD. FOR THE KLBF AND
KVTN TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY...WITH
KVTN TO BECOME BKN100 BY 17Z...AND KLBF SCT120 BKN250 BY 20Z.
WINDS TO BE LIGHT WEST BELOW 10KT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-028-
029.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 201150
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
550 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A LEESIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT WEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER MILE AT
ONL. TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 14 AT VTN TO 25
AT ONL AND 27 AT IML.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z FOR THE EASTERN FOUR
COUNTIES WITH THE CONTINUANCE OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS.
H85 TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM 3C TO 5C SUPPORT HIGHS OF 40 TO 45 MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV
GUIDANCE. THE PRESENCE OF EXISTING SNOW COVER AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TODAY TO LIMIT HIGHS FROM WHATS FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE
LIMITED. MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR THE EASTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STRATUS JUST TO OUR EAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH AND LOWS 18 TO 23 ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT AS SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTER LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND AN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ALASKA. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO WESTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DECENT WARM UP EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD
OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF WARM AIR
ALOFT OVER SPREADING THE AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW MENTION FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST...AS SOUNDING DATA
INDICATES IT WILL JUST BE TOO WARM ALOFT FOR SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW
WRAPS UP ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY...COLDER AIR BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS WRAPPED SOUTH INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PARALLEL RUN OF THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF REMAIN IN AGREEMENT...AND BRING A FAIRLY DECENT
SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS /THROUGH OUR AREA/ CHRISTMAS INTO
FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. THINKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW LATE
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO UP POPS IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK. THERE HAS
BEEN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND CURRENTLY BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 0.20 TO 0.35 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH...SO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
ONE THING TO NOTE...THERE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY STORM...THAT WILL GO THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO JUST PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM. SO SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT
MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...BUT MODELS INSIST THAT A RAPID RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE...WITH THAT MOISTURE WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AND THEN TO THE WEST WITHIN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT WHICH
SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA. WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LIFR IS EXPECTED CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
VFR/LOCAL MVFR IN FOG IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH 15Z. VFR IS
EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 FROM 15Z ONWARD. FOR THE KLBF AND
KVTN TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY...WITH
KVTN TO BECOME BKN100 BY 17Z...AND KLBF SCT120 BKN250 BY 20Z.
WINDS TO BE LIGHT WEST BELOW 10KT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-028-
029.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KGID 201142
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
542 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR KEAR. VLIFR TO START FOR
KGRI...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KGRI LATER TODAY.

STRATUS...WITH A BASE IN THE 100-500FT AGL RANGE...PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO
KGRI AND KK61. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 1/4SM IN FOG ALSO
PERSISTS GENERALLY ALONG THE SAME LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND
KK61. UNFORTUNATELY...SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THROUGH THE PAST HOUR OR SO INDICATE THE STRATUS AND FOG HAS
STALLED AND IS NO LONGER MOVING EAST AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...IT NOW APPEARS VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AT KGRI THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FOR KGRI
12-16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST 16Z ONWARD. OBVIOUSLY
THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH TAF AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE SHOULD THE STRATUS DECIDE TO MOVE OUT MORE QUICKLY OR
WORSE...LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AS FOR KEAR...THE
STRATUS APPEARS SAFELY EAST FOR NOW AND THUS THE VFR FORECAST.
THAT SAID...TAF AMENDMENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR KEAR SHOULD THE
STRATUS DECIDE TO RETROGRADE WEST...BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
THAT...AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THE STRATUS WILL
MOVE BACK WEST THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND AT BOTH TAF SITES
WILL START FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KTS LATER TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     047-048-062-063-075-076-085-086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 201142
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
542 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR KEAR. VLIFR TO START FOR
KGRI...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KGRI LATER TODAY.

STRATUS...WITH A BASE IN THE 100-500FT AGL RANGE...PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO
KGRI AND KK61. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 1/4SM IN FOG ALSO
PERSISTS GENERALLY ALONG THE SAME LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND
KK61. UNFORTUNATELY...SATELLITE TRENDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THROUGH THE PAST HOUR OR SO INDICATE THE STRATUS AND FOG HAS
STALLED AND IS NO LONGER MOVING EAST AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...IT NOW APPEARS VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AT KGRI THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FOR KGRI
12-16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST 16Z ONWARD. OBVIOUSLY
THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH TAF AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE SHOULD THE STRATUS DECIDE TO MOVE OUT MORE QUICKLY OR
WORSE...LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AS FOR KEAR...THE
STRATUS APPEARS SAFELY EAST FOR NOW AND THUS THE VFR FORECAST.
THAT SAID...TAF AMENDMENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR KEAR SHOULD THE
STRATUS DECIDE TO RETROGRADE WEST...BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
THAT...AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THE STRATUS WILL
MOVE BACK WEST THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND AT BOTH TAF SITES
WILL START FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10KTS LATER TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     047-048-062-063-075-076-085-086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 201128
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.  FARTHER
OUT...POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED FROM 1.4KFT TO 2.8KFT WITH
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A 100KT+ H3 WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
WITH A SECOND JET STRETCHING FROM BAJA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  COMPLEX H5 PATTERN WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
IN THE FLOW.  AT 00Z...THERE WAS A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ANOTHER LONGER WAVE TROF HEADING FOR THE PLAINS TODAY AND
SUNDAY. OF NOTE ON THE H85 CHART WAS THAT THE COLD AIR WAS WELL TO
THE NORTH FROM MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY WITH MILD AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS WERE APPROACHING CENTRAL CANADA WITH
ANOTHER AREA SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST.

WITH A MOIST SOUTH FLOW...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS NEAR ONL AND
HASTING WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING NORTH THROUGH MARYSVILLE. DENSE
FOG WAS NOTED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.  THIS
CLEARING IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS IN THAT
LOCATION AND A 25KT LOW LEVEL JET. VISIBILITIES WERE QUITE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DENSE FOG AROUND ONL TO AURORA AND
PATCHY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES...YET OTHER LOCATIONS
ABOVE SIX MILES. THERE WAS SOME MIST OR FREEZING MIST WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 28 TO 30 IN WESTERN
IOWA AND AROUND 30 TO 32 IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. COLDER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE FOUND FARTHER WEST WHERE IS HAD CLEARED OUT. THE CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE INCREASED MIXING SHOULD FILL BACK IN AS THE
WINDS RELAX. THE SHORTWAVE AT 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL IOWA WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BETTER LIFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO WILL ONLY MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DECREASE
THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
LINCOLN AND COLUMBUS AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE. MOST HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE TODAY.

THERE IS SOME LIFT WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IS WELL
TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. TONIGHT WITH THE LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION DO INCLUDE FOG/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THE NEXT TROF DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
APPEARS STRONGER AND HAS MORE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
INCREASING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGER MONDAY...THUS LINGER THE CHANCES FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY.  IT TAKES A WHILE FOR
THE TROF TO MOVE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S. AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE CREATED MIST AT AND AROUND KOMA.
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION -FZDZ THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR FOR SOME TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL MOVE IN AGAIN THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DROPPING CONDITIONS DOWN
TO IFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 201128
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.  FARTHER
OUT...POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED FROM 1.4KFT TO 2.8KFT WITH
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A 100KT+ H3 WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
WITH A SECOND JET STRETCHING FROM BAJA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  COMPLEX H5 PATTERN WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
IN THE FLOW.  AT 00Z...THERE WAS A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ANOTHER LONGER WAVE TROF HEADING FOR THE PLAINS TODAY AND
SUNDAY. OF NOTE ON THE H85 CHART WAS THAT THE COLD AIR WAS WELL TO
THE NORTH FROM MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY WITH MILD AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS WERE APPROACHING CENTRAL CANADA WITH
ANOTHER AREA SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST.

WITH A MOIST SOUTH FLOW...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS NEAR ONL AND
HASTING WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING NORTH THROUGH MARYSVILLE. DENSE
FOG WAS NOTED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.  THIS
CLEARING IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS IN THAT
LOCATION AND A 25KT LOW LEVEL JET. VISIBILITIES WERE QUITE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DENSE FOG AROUND ONL TO AURORA AND
PATCHY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES...YET OTHER LOCATIONS
ABOVE SIX MILES. THERE WAS SOME MIST OR FREEZING MIST WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 28 TO 30 IN WESTERN
IOWA AND AROUND 30 TO 32 IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. COLDER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE FOUND FARTHER WEST WHERE IS HAD CLEARED OUT. THE CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE INCREASED MIXING SHOULD FILL BACK IN AS THE
WINDS RELAX. THE SHORTWAVE AT 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL IOWA WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BETTER LIFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO WILL ONLY MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DECREASE
THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
LINCOLN AND COLUMBUS AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE. MOST HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE TODAY.

THERE IS SOME LIFT WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IS WELL
TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. TONIGHT WITH THE LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION DO INCLUDE FOG/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THE NEXT TROF DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
APPEARS STRONGER AND HAS MORE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
INCREASING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGER MONDAY...THUS LINGER THE CHANCES FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY.  IT TAKES A WHILE FOR
THE TROF TO MOVE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S. AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE CREATED MIST AT AND AROUND KOMA.
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION -FZDZ THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR FOR SOME TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL MOVE IN AGAIN THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DROPPING CONDITIONS DOWN
TO IFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 201128
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.  FARTHER
OUT...POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED FROM 1.4KFT TO 2.8KFT WITH
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A 100KT+ H3 WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
WITH A SECOND JET STRETCHING FROM BAJA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  COMPLEX H5 PATTERN WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
IN THE FLOW.  AT 00Z...THERE WAS A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ANOTHER LONGER WAVE TROF HEADING FOR THE PLAINS TODAY AND
SUNDAY. OF NOTE ON THE H85 CHART WAS THAT THE COLD AIR WAS WELL TO
THE NORTH FROM MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY WITH MILD AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS WERE APPROACHING CENTRAL CANADA WITH
ANOTHER AREA SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST.

WITH A MOIST SOUTH FLOW...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS NEAR ONL AND
HASTING WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING NORTH THROUGH MARYSVILLE. DENSE
FOG WAS NOTED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.  THIS
CLEARING IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS IN THAT
LOCATION AND A 25KT LOW LEVEL JET. VISIBILITIES WERE QUITE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DENSE FOG AROUND ONL TO AURORA AND
PATCHY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES...YET OTHER LOCATIONS
ABOVE SIX MILES. THERE WAS SOME MIST OR FREEZING MIST WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 28 TO 30 IN WESTERN
IOWA AND AROUND 30 TO 32 IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. COLDER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE FOUND FARTHER WEST WHERE IS HAD CLEARED OUT. THE CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE INCREASED MIXING SHOULD FILL BACK IN AS THE
WINDS RELAX. THE SHORTWAVE AT 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL IOWA WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BETTER LIFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO WILL ONLY MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DECREASE
THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
LINCOLN AND COLUMBUS AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE. MOST HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE TODAY.

THERE IS SOME LIFT WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IS WELL
TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. TONIGHT WITH THE LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION DO INCLUDE FOG/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THE NEXT TROF DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
APPEARS STRONGER AND HAS MORE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
INCREASING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGER MONDAY...THUS LINGER THE CHANCES FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY.  IT TAKES A WHILE FOR
THE TROF TO MOVE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S. AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE CREATED MIST AT AND AROUND KOMA.
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION -FZDZ THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR FOR SOME TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL MOVE IN AGAIN THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DROPPING CONDITIONS DOWN
TO IFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 201128
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.  FARTHER
OUT...POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED FROM 1.4KFT TO 2.8KFT WITH
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A 100KT+ H3 WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
WITH A SECOND JET STRETCHING FROM BAJA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  COMPLEX H5 PATTERN WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
IN THE FLOW.  AT 00Z...THERE WAS A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ANOTHER LONGER WAVE TROF HEADING FOR THE PLAINS TODAY AND
SUNDAY. OF NOTE ON THE H85 CHART WAS THAT THE COLD AIR WAS WELL TO
THE NORTH FROM MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY WITH MILD AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS WERE APPROACHING CENTRAL CANADA WITH
ANOTHER AREA SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST.

WITH A MOIST SOUTH FLOW...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS NEAR ONL AND
HASTING WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING NORTH THROUGH MARYSVILLE. DENSE
FOG WAS NOTED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.  THIS
CLEARING IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS IN THAT
LOCATION AND A 25KT LOW LEVEL JET. VISIBILITIES WERE QUITE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DENSE FOG AROUND ONL TO AURORA AND
PATCHY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES...YET OTHER LOCATIONS
ABOVE SIX MILES. THERE WAS SOME MIST OR FREEZING MIST WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 28 TO 30 IN WESTERN
IOWA AND AROUND 30 TO 32 IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. COLDER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE FOUND FARTHER WEST WHERE IS HAD CLEARED OUT. THE CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE INCREASED MIXING SHOULD FILL BACK IN AS THE
WINDS RELAX. THE SHORTWAVE AT 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL IOWA WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BETTER LIFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO WILL ONLY MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DECREASE
THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
LINCOLN AND COLUMBUS AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE. MOST HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE TODAY.

THERE IS SOME LIFT WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IS WELL
TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. TONIGHT WITH THE LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION DO INCLUDE FOG/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THE NEXT TROF DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
APPEARS STRONGER AND HAS MORE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
INCREASING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGER MONDAY...THUS LINGER THE CHANCES FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY.  IT TAKES A WHILE FOR
THE TROF TO MOVE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S. AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE CREATED MIST AT AND AROUND KOMA.
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION -FZDZ THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR FOR SOME TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL MOVE IN AGAIN THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DROPPING CONDITIONS DOWN
TO IFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 200959
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A LEESIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS MONTANA INTO EASTERN
WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT WEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF A QUARTER MILE AT
ONL. TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 14 AT VTN TO 25
AT ONL AND 27 AT IML.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z FOR THE EASTERN FOUR
COUNTIES WITH THE CONTINUANCE OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS.
H85 TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM 3C TO 5C SUPPORT HIGHS OF 40 TO 45 MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV
GUIDANCE. THE PRESENCE OF EXISTING SNOW COVER AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TODAY TO LIMIT HIGHS FROM WHATS FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE
LIMITED. MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR THE EASTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STRATUS JUST TO OUR EAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH AND LOWS 18 TO 23 ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT AS SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTER LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND AN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ALASKA. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO WESTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

DECENT WARM UP EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD
OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF WARM AIR
ALOFT OVER SPREADING THE AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW MENTION FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST...AS SOUNDING DATA
INDICATES IT WILL JUST BE TOO WARM ALOFT FOR SNOW. AS THE UPPER LOW
WRAPS UP ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY...COLDER AIR BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS WRAPPED SOUTH INTO THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PARALLEL RUN OF THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF REMAIN IN AGREEMENT...AND BRING A FAIRLY DECENT
SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS /THROUGH OUR AREA/ CHRISTMAS INTO
FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. THINKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR SNOW LATE
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO UP POPS IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK. THERE HAS
BEEN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS...AND CURRENTLY BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 0.20 TO 0.35 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE QUITE HIGH...SO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
ONE THING TO NOTE...THERE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY STORM...THAT WILL GO THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO JUST PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM. SO SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT
MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...BUT MODELS INSIST THAT A RAPID RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE...WITH THAT MOISTURE WRAPPING
NORTHWARD AND THEN TO THE WEST WITHIN THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT WHICH
SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA. WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LIFR IS EXPECTED CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
VFR/LOCAL MVFR IN FOG IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.
VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 FROM 15Z ONWARD. MVFR/IFR MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN NEAR AND EAST OF KONL...PERHAPS INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING TO SCOUR OUT THE ARCTIC AIR AND STRATUS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-028-
029.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KGID 200956
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY LOCATED VERY
NEAR KEAR AND MOVING EAST. UNFORTUNATELY...AND AXIS OF DENSE FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS CLEARING LINE AND AS A
RESULT...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION CONTINUES AT BOTH KEAR
AND KGRI. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS
STRATUS SHIELD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY...THUS ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
SATURDAY. IN FACT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR
BY 12Z...AND AT KGRI BY 14Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     047-048-062-063-075-076-085-086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 200956
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT...BUT IS FAIRLY WEAK AT
AROUND 40KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT.
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOG IS ALSO NOTED UNDERNEATH THIS STRATUS SHIELD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN THIS FOG IS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6SM RANGE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4SM TO 1SM IS BEING OBSERVED. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRATUS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KODX TO NEAR KK61 AND AS A
RESULT...LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE OBSERVING
CLEAR SKIES AND LITTLE IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST ARE OBSERVING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF
1/4-1SM WITH A CEILING OF 100-500FT AGL.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BECOME
QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THUS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. GIVEN ALL THIS...AN OVERALL
LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH HAS
BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE
THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS THE FOG...IS MOVING EAST AT 5-10KTS.
ASSUMING THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR
OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 15Z OR 16Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...A
THIN CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD DECK...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL
16Z.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS COULD BE REALIZED OVER OUR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280-300K
SURFACES...COMMENCES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS
OPTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS...AGAIN
PRIMARILY FROM THE NAM...OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURE READINGS TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FORECAST FOR THE MUCH
OF THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EAST/NORTHEAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THUS HELPING KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS AND AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD THEN PROVIDE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HAS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STORY...SHOWING THE AREA
UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW...INFLUENCED BY A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE ND/CAN BORDER.
EXPECTING TO SEE S/SWRLY WINDS IN PLACE...DRIVEN BY A TROUGH AXIS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY
DRY...ONE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT BUT ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS
HEELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE DAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP/LIGHT DZ BUILDING NORTH AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SERN
CORNER OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE. THINK THAT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH PERIODIC
PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS SHOWING NOT
A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH THE GENERAL LOCATION OVER ERN OR SRN PORTIONS OF MN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE LOW IS STILL
HANGING AROUND THE MN REGION. THIS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO PRESENT THE CWA WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT QPF...AND
DISAGREE SOME WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION. THUS COULDNT GO TOO
HIGH WITH POPS...KEPT THINGS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED BETWEEN MODELS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GETTING INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE MONTH...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEING WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN FOR PRECIP TYPE...THOUGH A RA/SN MIX IN NRN
LOCATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE
COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...SO
THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE EVENT LOOK TO SEE A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW...BUT THINGS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...SO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT BUILDING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS IN THE 20 TO
POSSIBLY 30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
/THOUGH MAY BE REACHED EARLIER IN THE DAY/...WITH 30S FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE /WED/ AND CHRISTMAS DAY
/THURS/ TIME FRAME...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY HAVING SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MOVE PRECIP
ON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME WED NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. W/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH SPEEDS ARND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MORE UNCERTAINTY/LOWER CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS VARY ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH KEEP MOST OF/IF
NOT ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS DRY...WITH THE EC TRYING TO PUSH SOME
PRECIP INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE EC
IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES...BEFORE PUSHING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY
AND BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE CWA. THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A
NW FLOW CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT/QPF
SLIDING ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...BARELY CLIPPING THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
CWA BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING EAST OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT CANT REALLY BUY FULL INTO EITHER SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE. ALONG WITH POPS...TEMPS MAY NEED
ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND...AS THE ECMWF IS ALSO A
MUCH COLDER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY LOCATED VERY
NEAR KEAR AND MOVING EAST. UNFORTUNATELY...AND AXIS OF DENSE FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS CLEARING LINE AND AS A
RESULT...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION CONTINUES AT BOTH KEAR
AND KGRI. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS
STRATUS SHIELD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY...THUS ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
SATURDAY. IN FACT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR
BY 12Z...AND AT KGRI BY 14Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     047-048-062-063-075-076-085-086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 200945
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
345 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.  FARTHER
OUT...POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED FROM 1.4KFT TO 2.8KFT WITH
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A 100KT+ H3 WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
WITH A SECOND JET STRETCHING FROM BAJA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  COMPLEX H5 PATTERN WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
IN THE FLOW.  AT 00Z...THERE WAS A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ANOTHER LONGER WAVE TROF HEADING FOR THE PLAINS TODAY AND
SUNDAY. OF NOTE ON THE H85 CHART WAS THAT THE COLD AIR WAS WELL TO
THE NORTH FROM MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY WITH MILD AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS WERE APPROACHING CENTRAL CANADA WITH
ANOTHER AREA SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST.

WITH A MOIST SOUTH FLOW...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS NEAR ONL AND
HASTING WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING NORTH THROUGH MARYSVILLE. DENSE
FOG WAS NOTED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.  THIS
CLEARING IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS IN THAT
LOCATION AND A 25KT LOW LEVEL JET. VISIBILITIES WERE QUITE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DENSE FOG AROUND ONL TO AURORA AND
PATCHY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES...YET OTHER LOCATIONS
ABOVE SIX MILES. THERE WAS SOME MIST OR FREEZING MIST WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 28 TO 30 IN WESTERN
IOWA AND AROUND 30 TO 32 IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. COLDER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE FOUND FARTHER WEST WHERE IS HAD CLEARED OUT. THE CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE INCREASED MIXING SHOULD FILL BACK IN AS THE
WINDS RELAX. THE SHORTWAVE AT 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL IOWA WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BETTER LIFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO WILL ONLY MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DECREASE
THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
LINCOLN AND COLUMBUS AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE. MOST HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE TODAY.

THERE IS SOME LIFT WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IS WELL
TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. TONIGHT WITH THE LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION DO INCLUDE FOG/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THE NEXT TROF DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
APPEARS STRONGER AND HAS MORE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
INCREASING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGER MONDAY...THUS LINGER THE CHANCES FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY.  IT TAKES A WHILE FOR
THE TROF TO MOVE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S. AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD.  CIGS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BUT LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE TAF SITES SHOULD KEEP ANY EXTREMELY DENSE
FOG FROM FORMING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION COULD
PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL DRIZZLE AS IT PROGRESSES OFF TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT AND PATCHY...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. VISIBILITIES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LINCOLN MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
LOW CLOUDS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS LOWER ONCE AGAIN.
ALSO WEAK FORCING COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE
AREA TOMORROW EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION UNTIL A
LATER ISSUANCE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 200945
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
345 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.  FARTHER
OUT...POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED FROM 1.4KFT TO 2.8KFT WITH
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. A 100KT+ H3 WAS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
WITH A SECOND JET STRETCHING FROM BAJA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  COMPLEX H5 PATTERN WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
IN THE FLOW.  AT 00Z...THERE WAS A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ANOTHER LONGER WAVE TROF HEADING FOR THE PLAINS TODAY AND
SUNDAY. OF NOTE ON THE H85 CHART WAS THAT THE COLD AIR WAS WELL TO
THE NORTH FROM MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY WITH MILD AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS. HIGHER H85 DEWPOINTS WERE APPROACHING CENTRAL CANADA WITH
ANOTHER AREA SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST.

WITH A MOIST SOUTH FLOW...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS NEAR ONL AND
HASTING WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING NORTH THROUGH MARYSVILLE. DENSE
FOG WAS NOTED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.  THIS
CLEARING IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS IN THAT
LOCATION AND A 25KT LOW LEVEL JET. VISIBILITIES WERE QUITE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DENSE FOG AROUND ONL TO AURORA AND
PATCHY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES...YET OTHER LOCATIONS
ABOVE SIX MILES. THERE WAS SOME MIST OR FREEZING MIST WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 28 TO 30 IN WESTERN
IOWA AND AROUND 30 TO 32 IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. COLDER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE FOUND FARTHER WEST WHERE IS HAD CLEARED OUT. THE CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE INCREASED MIXING SHOULD FILL BACK IN AS THE
WINDS RELAX. THE SHORTWAVE AT 12Z SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL IOWA WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BETTER LIFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO WILL ONLY MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DECREASE
THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
LINCOLN AND COLUMBUS AND THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE. MOST HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE TODAY.

THERE IS SOME LIFT WITH THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IS WELL
TO THE NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. TONIGHT WITH THE LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION DO INCLUDE FOG/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THE NEXT TROF DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
APPEARS STRONGER AND HAS MORE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH. LOOKS LIKE
INCREASING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGER MONDAY...THUS LINGER THE CHANCES FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY.  IT TAKES A WHILE FOR
THE TROF TO MOVE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH AS THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S. AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD.  CIGS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BUT LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE TAF SITES SHOULD KEEP ANY EXTREMELY DENSE
FOG FROM FORMING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION COULD
PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL DRIZZLE AS IT PROGRESSES OFF TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT AND PATCHY...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. VISIBILITIES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LINCOLN MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
LOW CLOUDS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS LOWER ONCE AGAIN.
ALSO WEAK FORCING COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE
AREA TOMORROW EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION UNTIL A
LATER ISSUANCE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KG



000
FXUS63 KGID 200609
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO...BUT SOME LIGHT FOG PERSISTS.

WATCHING THE VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST HAVE
BEEN INCLINED TO KEEP THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. UNDER
THE CLOUDS THE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR EVEN THE SOUTHEAST A BIT
AND THIS HAS MADE IT HARD FOR THE CLEARING LINE TO CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES THE WINDS ARE
FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BE PUSHING DRIER AIR DOWN SLOPE WHICH
SHOULD HELP THE CLEARING. AT THIS TIME THE SOUTH WINDS SEEM TO BE
WINNING THAT BATTLE.

TWO MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE FORECAST. FIRST HOW FAR EAST WILL
THE CLOUDS MOVE AND SECOND WHETHER THERE WILL BE FOG NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST EVEN THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE WEST WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST
A LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TOUGH IN THE
EAST...BUT THE WEST ESPECIALLY AND EVEN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURING THE NIGHT. THAT BRINGS
WITH IT THE COOLING TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA. HOW MUCH...WHERE AND HOW LOW
WILL BE VISIBILITY BE ARE ALL QUESTIONS THAT PROVIDE A CHALLENGE.
SINCE MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAVE YET VISIBILITY OF
MORE THAN 5 MILES...WILL MAKE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LIGHT FOG
SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN DURING THE NIGHT.
HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. CURRENTLY
THE NAM AND HRRR ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT INDICATE THERE WOULD BE
SOME FOG AROUND THE AREA. THE NAM KEEPS IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND
FAIRLY LIGHT WHILE THE HRRR GIVES SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES FURTHER
WEST. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR WHERE THE CLEARING LINE WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT EXPECT THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES TO BE IN THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT NOT SURE HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL
BE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AS A MODEL EXPECT THERE COULD
BE SOME VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE SOMEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A PROGRESSIVE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FORECAST TO DIVE INTO
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT...AND COULD SEE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
WAVE...THEY DIVERGE EVEN MORE AS WE TRANSITION INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BEYOND...WITH THE EC STILL MAINTAINING A MUCH BROADER TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE GFS KEEPS THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE
MUCH FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO THE DIVERGENCE OF THE GUIDANCE...BLENDED
FORECAST DROPPED POPS FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THE DAY AFTER...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH THE CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 10 DAYS TO BE
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE FOCUS OF SOME FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...THINK IT IS PROBABLE THAT WE MIGHT STILL SEE SOME FOG
FROM ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 281 EASTWARD TO START THE DAY SUNDAY...CLOSER
TO THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...OPTED TO INTRODUCE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECT TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE WIND COMBINED WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD MAKE FOR
A RELATIVELY NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING MAINLY THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA.
BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...BUT LOOKING
AT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND WARM LAYER ALOFT...THIS THE IS LIKELY
TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY CLIP THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THIS PERIOD. AS
THE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...THE CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIP OVER THIS PERIOD IS LOW AND
KEPT TEMPERATURES SEASONAL AND FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A RESULT.

THEREAFTER...WHAT LOOKED LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS APPEARS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE
APPARENT. AS A RESULT...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SAW NO REASON TO
DIVERGE FROM BLENDED FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY LOCATED VERY
NEAR KEAR AND MOVING EAST. UNFORTUNATELY...AND AXIS OF DENSE FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS CLEARING LINE AND AS A
RESULT...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION CONTINUES AT BOTH KEAR
AND KGRI. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS
STRATUS SHIELD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY...THUS ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
SATURDAY. IN FACT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR
BY 12Z...AND AT KGRI BY 14Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>048-061>063-074>076-084>086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ006-007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 200609
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO...BUT SOME LIGHT FOG PERSISTS.

WATCHING THE VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST HAVE
BEEN INCLINED TO KEEP THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. UNDER
THE CLOUDS THE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR EVEN THE SOUTHEAST A BIT
AND THIS HAS MADE IT HARD FOR THE CLEARING LINE TO CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES THE WINDS ARE
FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BE PUSHING DRIER AIR DOWN SLOPE WHICH
SHOULD HELP THE CLEARING. AT THIS TIME THE SOUTH WINDS SEEM TO BE
WINNING THAT BATTLE.

TWO MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE FORECAST. FIRST HOW FAR EAST WILL
THE CLOUDS MOVE AND SECOND WHETHER THERE WILL BE FOG NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST EVEN THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE WEST WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST
A LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TOUGH IN THE
EAST...BUT THE WEST ESPECIALLY AND EVEN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURING THE NIGHT. THAT BRINGS
WITH IT THE COOLING TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA. HOW MUCH...WHERE AND HOW LOW
WILL BE VISIBILITY BE ARE ALL QUESTIONS THAT PROVIDE A CHALLENGE.
SINCE MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAVE YET VISIBILITY OF
MORE THAN 5 MILES...WILL MAKE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LIGHT FOG
SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN DURING THE NIGHT.
HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. CURRENTLY
THE NAM AND HRRR ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT INDICATE THERE WOULD BE
SOME FOG AROUND THE AREA. THE NAM KEEPS IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND
FAIRLY LIGHT WHILE THE HRRR GIVES SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES FURTHER
WEST. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR WHERE THE CLEARING LINE WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT EXPECT THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES TO BE IN THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT NOT SURE HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL
BE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AS A MODEL EXPECT THERE COULD
BE SOME VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE SOMEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A PROGRESSIVE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FORECAST TO DIVE INTO
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT...AND COULD SEE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
WAVE...THEY DIVERGE EVEN MORE AS WE TRANSITION INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BEYOND...WITH THE EC STILL MAINTAINING A MUCH BROADER TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE GFS KEEPS THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE
MUCH FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO THE DIVERGENCE OF THE GUIDANCE...BLENDED
FORECAST DROPPED POPS FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THE DAY AFTER...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH THE CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 10 DAYS TO BE
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE FOCUS OF SOME FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...THINK IT IS PROBABLE THAT WE MIGHT STILL SEE SOME FOG
FROM ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 281 EASTWARD TO START THE DAY SUNDAY...CLOSER
TO THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...OPTED TO INTRODUCE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECT TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE WIND COMBINED WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD MAKE FOR
A RELATIVELY NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING MAINLY THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA.
BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...BUT LOOKING
AT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND WARM LAYER ALOFT...THIS THE IS LIKELY
TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY CLIP THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THIS PERIOD. AS
THE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...THE CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIP OVER THIS PERIOD IS LOW AND
KEPT TEMPERATURES SEASONAL AND FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A RESULT.

THEREAFTER...WHAT LOOKED LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS APPEARS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE
APPARENT. AS A RESULT...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SAW NO REASON TO
DIVERGE FROM BLENDED FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY LOCATED VERY
NEAR KEAR AND MOVING EAST. UNFORTUNATELY...AND AXIS OF DENSE FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS CLEARING LINE AND AS A
RESULT...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION CONTINUES AT BOTH KEAR
AND KGRI. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS
STRATUS SHIELD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY...THUS ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
SATURDAY. IN FACT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR
BY 12Z...AND AT KGRI BY 14Z. UNTIL THAT POINT HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>048-061>063-074>076-084>086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ006-007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 200531
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THEN
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WERE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. HOWEVER SOME CLEARING WAS NOTED IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WORKING EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE POINTS TO A REINFORCEMENT OF CLOUDS/FOG OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SIMILAR IN MOIST/CLOUD DEPTH COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP LAYER JUST ABOVE
CLOUD TOP SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 04Z TO 12Z. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS...SO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS SUGGEST IMPACTS WILL
BE MINIMAL. SIMILAR SITUATION IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR AREA.

CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART ON SATURDAY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT CONTINUES.
THUS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 20S OR LOW 30S.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH OVER TOP OF SURFACE FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN OUR WEST IN THE EVENING AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES
COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROGS POINT TO MAINLY A RAIN EVENT
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. NAM IS COOLEST OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WOULD
CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA BEFORE ENDING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION WING ALOFT. HOWEVER
COULD SEE LINGERING RAIN IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C MOST
OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON MAY IGNITE SNOW SHOWERS THERE.
TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD HIT HIGHS IN THE MORNING NORTH AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTH BEFORE FALLING AS STRONGER COOL ADVECTION INVADES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE EXITING ON TUESDAY. CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL RESULT
DURING THIS TIME.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHALLOW UPPER RIDGING WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPS SOMEWHAT. BY
THURSDAY...INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OR EAST WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
WEAKER THAN ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM AND JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF HAS A MORE WOUND UP
SURFACE LOW WITH A FAVORABLE SNOW-PRODUCING TRACK THROUGH EASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND PAINTS ABOUT A HALF INCH OF QPF
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES OF GFS/ECMWF ARE OFFERING WIDE
VARIATION IN POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...SO HAVE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
LATE WEEK FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR A TRAVEL-HEAVY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD.  CIGS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BUT LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE TAF SITES SHOULD KEEP ANY EXTREMELY DENSE
FOG FROM FORMING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION COULD
PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL DRIZZLE AS IT PROGRESSES OFF TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT AND PATCHY...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. VISIBILITIES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LINCOLN MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
LOW CLOUDS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS LOWER ONCE AGAIN.
ALSO WEAK FORCING COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE
AREA TOMORROW EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION UNTIL A
LATER ISSUANCE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 200531
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THEN
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WERE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. HOWEVER SOME CLEARING WAS NOTED IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WORKING EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE POINTS TO A REINFORCEMENT OF CLOUDS/FOG OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SIMILAR IN MOIST/CLOUD DEPTH COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP LAYER JUST ABOVE
CLOUD TOP SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 04Z TO 12Z. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS...SO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS SUGGEST IMPACTS WILL
BE MINIMAL. SIMILAR SITUATION IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR AREA.

CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART ON SATURDAY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT CONTINUES.
THUS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 20S OR LOW 30S.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH OVER TOP OF SURFACE FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN OUR WEST IN THE EVENING AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES
COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROGS POINT TO MAINLY A RAIN EVENT
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. NAM IS COOLEST OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WOULD
CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA BEFORE ENDING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION WING ALOFT. HOWEVER
COULD SEE LINGERING RAIN IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C MOST
OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON MAY IGNITE SNOW SHOWERS THERE.
TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD HIT HIGHS IN THE MORNING NORTH AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTH BEFORE FALLING AS STRONGER COOL ADVECTION INVADES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE EXITING ON TUESDAY. CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL RESULT
DURING THIS TIME.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHALLOW UPPER RIDGING WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPS SOMEWHAT. BY
THURSDAY...INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OR EAST WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
WEAKER THAN ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM AND JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF HAS A MORE WOUND UP
SURFACE LOW WITH A FAVORABLE SNOW-PRODUCING TRACK THROUGH EASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND PAINTS ABOUT A HALF INCH OF QPF
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES OF GFS/ECMWF ARE OFFERING WIDE
VARIATION IN POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...SO HAVE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
LATE WEEK FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR A TRAVEL-HEAVY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD.  CIGS ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO IFR...POSSIBLY LIFR TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BUT LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE TAF SITES SHOULD KEEP ANY EXTREMELY DENSE
FOG FROM FORMING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION COULD
PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL DRIZZLE AS IT PROGRESSES OFF TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT AND PATCHY...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. VISIBILITIES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR HEIGHTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LINCOLN MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN
LOW CLOUDS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS LOWER ONCE AGAIN.
ALSO WEAK FORCING COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DRIZZLE TO THE
AREA TOMORROW EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION UNTIL A
LATER ISSUANCE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG



000
FXUS63 KLBF 200522 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDGING EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IDENTIFICATION IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

CLOSER TO HOME...A QUICK MOVING COMPACT PV ANOMALY IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD HOWEVER VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURE. ENHANCED
FLOW SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

KONL HAS BEEN AT 1/2 MILE AND A 1OO FOOT CEILING FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS
AND IT LOOKS THIS AREA NORTH AND SOUTH IS IN PRIME FOG REGION. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG
REFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRATUS LINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LXN TO ONL THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH VSBYS LOOK BETTER
BASED ON NDOR WEB CAMS...KONL STILL REPORTING LESS THAN 3SM AT THE
MOMENT. BELIEVE BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS THAT VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN CUSTER INTO ERN HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES...BUT AFTER SUNSET VSBYS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THE
WRN EDGE OF STRATUS FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE
BBW AND LBF AREAS LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER WEST. HAVE GONE WITH A COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTION. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BEING TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
VERY TRICKY IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING IN THE ERN CUSTER TO ERN
HOLT COUNTY AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. END RESULT IS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS AND WARMER TEMPS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. NEXT WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K
LAYER WILL LIFT NEARLY SATURATED AIR INTO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER. DURING THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. AS THE LOWEST LEVEL COOLS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 290-300K LAYER CONTINUES
LIFTING SATURATED AIR INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WITH
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40F MOST AREAS...IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
THE LIFT CUTS OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS40 INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A CROSS
SECTION THROUGH THE AREA SHOWS THAT THE LIFT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND DIPPING SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND TURNING
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ONE
TAKEN BY THE CYCLONE THAT WENT ACROSS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS...WE END UP
WITH 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND 25-40 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LIFR IS EXPECTED CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
VFR/LOCAL MVFR IN FOG IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.
VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 FROM 15Z ONWARD. MVFR/IFR MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN NEAR AND EAST OF KONL...PERHAPS INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING TO SCOUR OUT THE ARCTIC AIR AND STRATUS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ010-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 200522 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDGING EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IDENTIFICATION IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

CLOSER TO HOME...A QUICK MOVING COMPACT PV ANOMALY IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD HOWEVER VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURE. ENHANCED
FLOW SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

KONL HAS BEEN AT 1/2 MILE AND A 1OO FOOT CEILING FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS
AND IT LOOKS THIS AREA NORTH AND SOUTH IS IN PRIME FOG REGION. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG
REFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRATUS LINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LXN TO ONL THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH VSBYS LOOK BETTER
BASED ON NDOR WEB CAMS...KONL STILL REPORTING LESS THAN 3SM AT THE
MOMENT. BELIEVE BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS THAT VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN CUSTER INTO ERN HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES...BUT AFTER SUNSET VSBYS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THE
WRN EDGE OF STRATUS FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE
BBW AND LBF AREAS LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER WEST. HAVE GONE WITH A COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTION. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BEING TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
VERY TRICKY IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING IN THE ERN CUSTER TO ERN
HOLT COUNTY AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. END RESULT IS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS AND WARMER TEMPS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. NEXT WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K
LAYER WILL LIFT NEARLY SATURATED AIR INTO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER. DURING THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. AS THE LOWEST LEVEL COOLS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 290-300K LAYER CONTINUES
LIFTING SATURATED AIR INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WITH
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40F MOST AREAS...IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
THE LIFT CUTS OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS40 INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A CROSS
SECTION THROUGH THE AREA SHOWS THAT THE LIFT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND DIPPING SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND TURNING
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ONE
TAKEN BY THE CYCLONE THAT WENT ACROSS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS...WE END UP
WITH 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND 25-40 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LIFR IS EXPECTED CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
VFR/LOCAL MVFR IN FOG IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY.
VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 FROM 15Z ONWARD. MVFR/IFR MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN NEAR AND EAST OF KONL...PERHAPS INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING TO SCOUR OUT THE ARCTIC AIR AND STRATUS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ010-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 200400 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1000 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDGING EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IDENTIFICATION IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

CLOSER TO HOME...A QUICK MOVING COMPACT PV ANOMALY IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD HOWEVER VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURE. ENHANCED
FLOW SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

KONL HAS BEEN AT 1/2 MILE AND A 1OO FOOT CEILING FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS
AND IT LOOKS THIS AREA NORTH AND SOUTH IS IN PRIME FOG REGION. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG
REFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRATUS LINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LXN TO ONL THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH VSBYS LOOK BETTER
BASED ON NDOR WEB CAMS...KONL STILL REPORTING LESS THAN 3SM AT THE
MOMENT. BELIEVE BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS THAT VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN CUSTER INTO ERN HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES...BUT AFTER SUNSET VSBYS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THE
WRN EDGE OF STRATUS FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE
BBW AND LBF AREAS LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER WEST. HAVE GONE WITH A COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTION. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BEING TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
VERY TRICKY IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING IN THE ERN CUSTER TO ERN
HOLT COUNTY AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. END RESULT IS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS AND WARMER TEMPS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. NEXT WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K
LAYER WILL LIFT NEARLY SATURATED AIR INTO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER. DURING THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. AS THE LOWEST LEVEL COOLS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 290-300K LAYER CONTINUES
LIFTING SATURATED AIR INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WITH
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40F MOST AREAS...IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
THE LIFT CUTS OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS40 INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A CROSS
SECTION THROUGH THE AREA SHOWS THAT THE LIFT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND DIPPING SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND TURNING
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ONE
TAKEN BY THE CYCLONE THAT WENT ACROSS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS...WE END UP
WITH 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND 25-40 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 MIXED IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED IN VERY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH 15Z-18Z. THEREAFTER VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE
BANK OF LOW CLOUDS SETTLES JUST EAST OF HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CLOUDS MAY BACK WESTWARD DURING THE AFTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ010-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 200400 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1000 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDGING EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IDENTIFICATION IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

CLOSER TO HOME...A QUICK MOVING COMPACT PV ANOMALY IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD HOWEVER VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURE. ENHANCED
FLOW SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

KONL HAS BEEN AT 1/2 MILE AND A 1OO FOOT CEILING FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS
AND IT LOOKS THIS AREA NORTH AND SOUTH IS IN PRIME FOG REGION. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG
REFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRATUS LINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LXN TO ONL THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH VSBYS LOOK BETTER
BASED ON NDOR WEB CAMS...KONL STILL REPORTING LESS THAN 3SM AT THE
MOMENT. BELIEVE BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS THAT VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN CUSTER INTO ERN HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES...BUT AFTER SUNSET VSBYS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THE
WRN EDGE OF STRATUS FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE
BBW AND LBF AREAS LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER WEST. HAVE GONE WITH A COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTION. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BEING TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
VERY TRICKY IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING IN THE ERN CUSTER TO ERN
HOLT COUNTY AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. END RESULT IS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS AND WARMER TEMPS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. NEXT WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K
LAYER WILL LIFT NEARLY SATURATED AIR INTO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER. DURING THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. AS THE LOWEST LEVEL COOLS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 290-300K LAYER CONTINUES
LIFTING SATURATED AIR INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WITH
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40F MOST AREAS...IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
THE LIFT CUTS OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS40 INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A CROSS
SECTION THROUGH THE AREA SHOWS THAT THE LIFT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND DIPPING SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND TURNING
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ONE
TAKEN BY THE CYCLONE THAT WENT ACROSS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS...WE END UP
WITH 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND 25-40 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 MIXED IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED IN VERY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH 15Z-18Z. THEREAFTER VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE
BANK OF LOW CLOUDS SETTLES JUST EAST OF HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CLOUDS MAY BACK WESTWARD DURING THE AFTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ010-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 200400 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1000 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDGING EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IDENTIFICATION IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

CLOSER TO HOME...A QUICK MOVING COMPACT PV ANOMALY IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD HOWEVER VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURE. ENHANCED
FLOW SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

KONL HAS BEEN AT 1/2 MILE AND A 1OO FOOT CEILING FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS
AND IT LOOKS THIS AREA NORTH AND SOUTH IS IN PRIME FOG REGION. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG
REFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRATUS LINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LXN TO ONL THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH VSBYS LOOK BETTER
BASED ON NDOR WEB CAMS...KONL STILL REPORTING LESS THAN 3SM AT THE
MOMENT. BELIEVE BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS THAT VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN CUSTER INTO ERN HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES...BUT AFTER SUNSET VSBYS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THE
WRN EDGE OF STRATUS FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE
BBW AND LBF AREAS LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER WEST. HAVE GONE WITH A COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTION. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BEING TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
VERY TRICKY IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING IN THE ERN CUSTER TO ERN
HOLT COUNTY AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. END RESULT IS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS AND WARMER TEMPS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. NEXT WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K
LAYER WILL LIFT NEARLY SATURATED AIR INTO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER. DURING THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. AS THE LOWEST LEVEL COOLS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 290-300K LAYER CONTINUES
LIFTING SATURATED AIR INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WITH
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40F MOST AREAS...IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
THE LIFT CUTS OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS40 INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A CROSS
SECTION THROUGH THE AREA SHOWS THAT THE LIFT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND DIPPING SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND TURNING
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ONE
TAKEN BY THE CYCLONE THAT WENT ACROSS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS...WE END UP
WITH 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND 25-40 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 MIXED IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED IN VERY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH 15Z-18Z. THEREAFTER VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE
BANK OF LOW CLOUDS SETTLES JUST EAST OF HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CLOUDS MAY BACK WESTWARD DURING THE AFTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ010-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 200400 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1000 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDGING EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IDENTIFICATION IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

CLOSER TO HOME...A QUICK MOVING COMPACT PV ANOMALY IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD HOWEVER VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURE. ENHANCED
FLOW SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

KONL HAS BEEN AT 1/2 MILE AND A 1OO FOOT CEILING FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS
AND IT LOOKS THIS AREA NORTH AND SOUTH IS IN PRIME FOG REGION. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG
REFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRATUS LINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LXN TO ONL THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH VSBYS LOOK BETTER
BASED ON NDOR WEB CAMS...KONL STILL REPORTING LESS THAN 3SM AT THE
MOMENT. BELIEVE BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS THAT VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN CUSTER INTO ERN HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES...BUT AFTER SUNSET VSBYS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THE
WRN EDGE OF STRATUS FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE
BBW AND LBF AREAS LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER WEST. HAVE GONE WITH A COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTION. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BEING TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
VERY TRICKY IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING IN THE ERN CUSTER TO ERN
HOLT COUNTY AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. END RESULT IS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS AND WARMER TEMPS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. NEXT WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K
LAYER WILL LIFT NEARLY SATURATED AIR INTO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER. DURING THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. AS THE LOWEST LEVEL COOLS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 290-300K LAYER CONTINUES
LIFTING SATURATED AIR INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WITH
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40F MOST AREAS...IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
THE LIFT CUTS OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS40 INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A CROSS
SECTION THROUGH THE AREA SHOWS THAT THE LIFT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND DIPPING SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND TURNING
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ONE
TAKEN BY THE CYCLONE THAT WENT ACROSS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS...WE END UP
WITH 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND 25-40 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 MIXED IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED IN VERY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH 15Z-18Z. THEREAFTER VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE
BANK OF LOW CLOUDS SETTLES JUST EAST OF HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CLOUDS MAY BACK WESTWARD DURING THE AFTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ010-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 200400 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1000 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDGING EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IDENTIFICATION IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

CLOSER TO HOME...A QUICK MOVING COMPACT PV ANOMALY IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD HOWEVER VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURE. ENHANCED
FLOW SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

KONL HAS BEEN AT 1/2 MILE AND A 1OO FOOT CEILING FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS
AND IT LOOKS THIS AREA NORTH AND SOUTH IS IN PRIME FOG REGION. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG
REFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRATUS LINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LXN TO ONL THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH VSBYS LOOK BETTER
BASED ON NDOR WEB CAMS...KONL STILL REPORTING LESS THAN 3SM AT THE
MOMENT. BELIEVE BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS THAT VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN CUSTER INTO ERN HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES...BUT AFTER SUNSET VSBYS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THE
WRN EDGE OF STRATUS FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE
BBW AND LBF AREAS LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER WEST. HAVE GONE WITH A COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTION. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BEING TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
VERY TRICKY IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING IN THE ERN CUSTER TO ERN
HOLT COUNTY AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. END RESULT IS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS AND WARMER TEMPS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. NEXT WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K
LAYER WILL LIFT NEARLY SATURATED AIR INTO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER. DURING THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. AS THE LOWEST LEVEL COOLS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 290-300K LAYER CONTINUES
LIFTING SATURATED AIR INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WITH
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40F MOST AREAS...IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
THE LIFT CUTS OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS40 INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A CROSS
SECTION THROUGH THE AREA SHOWS THAT THE LIFT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND DIPPING SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND TURNING
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ONE
TAKEN BY THE CYCLONE THAT WENT ACROSS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS...WE END UP
WITH 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND 25-40 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 MIXED IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED IN VERY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH 15Z-18Z. THEREAFTER VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE
BANK OF LOW CLOUDS SETTLES JUST EAST OF HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CLOUDS MAY BACK WESTWARD DURING THE AFTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ010-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 200400 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1000 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDGING EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IDENTIFICATION IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

CLOSER TO HOME...A QUICK MOVING COMPACT PV ANOMALY IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD HOWEVER VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURE. ENHANCED
FLOW SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

KONL HAS BEEN AT 1/2 MILE AND A 1OO FOOT CEILING FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS
AND IT LOOKS THIS AREA NORTH AND SOUTH IS IN PRIME FOG REGION. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR
HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG
REFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRATUS LINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LXN TO ONL THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH VSBYS LOOK BETTER
BASED ON NDOR WEB CAMS...KONL STILL REPORTING LESS THAN 3SM AT THE
MOMENT. BELIEVE BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS THAT VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN CUSTER INTO ERN HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES...BUT AFTER SUNSET VSBYS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THE
WRN EDGE OF STRATUS FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE
BBW AND LBF AREAS LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER WEST. HAVE GONE WITH A COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTION. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BEING TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
VERY TRICKY IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING IN THE ERN CUSTER TO ERN
HOLT COUNTY AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. END RESULT IS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS AND WARMER TEMPS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. NEXT WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K
LAYER WILL LIFT NEARLY SATURATED AIR INTO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER. DURING THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. AS THE LOWEST LEVEL COOLS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 290-300K LAYER CONTINUES
LIFTING SATURATED AIR INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WITH
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40F MOST AREAS...IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
THE LIFT CUTS OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS40 INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A CROSS
SECTION THROUGH THE AREA SHOWS THAT THE LIFT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND DIPPING SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND TURNING
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ONE
TAKEN BY THE CYCLONE THAT WENT ACROSS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS...WE END UP
WITH 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND 25-40 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 MIXED IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED IN VERY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH 15Z-18Z. THEREAFTER VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE
BANK OF LOW CLOUDS SETTLES JUST EAST OF HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CLOUDS MAY BACK WESTWARD DURING THE AFTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ010-028-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KOAX 200028
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THEN
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WERE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. HOWEVER SOME CLEARING WAS NOTED IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WORKING EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE POINTS TO A REINFORCEMENT OF CLOUDS/FOG OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SIMILAR IN MOIST/CLOUD DEPTH COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP LAYER JUST ABOVE
CLOUD TOP SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 04Z TO 12Z. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS...SO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS SUGGEST IMPACTS WILL
BE MINIMAL. SIMILAR SITUATION IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR AREA.

CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART ON SATURDAY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT CONTINUES.
THUS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 20S OR LOW 30S.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH OVER TOP OF SURFACE FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN OUR WEST IN THE EVENING AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES
COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROGS POINT TO MAINLY A RAIN EVENT
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. NAM IS COOLEST OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WOULD
CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA BEFORE ENDING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION WING ALOFT. HOWEVER
COULD SEE LINGERING RAIN IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C MOST
OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON MAY IGNITE SNOW SHOWERS THERE.
TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD HIT HIGHS IN THE MORNING NORTH AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTH BEFORE FALLING AS STRONGER COOL ADVECTION INVADES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE EXITING ON TUESDAY. CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL RESULT
DURING THIS TIME.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHALLOW UPPER RIDGING WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPS SOMEWHAT. BY
THURSDAY...INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OR EAST WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
WEAKER THAN ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM AND JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF HAS A MORE WOUND UP
SURFACE LOW WITH A FAVORABLE SNOW-PRODUCING TRACK THROUGH EASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND PAINTS ABOUT A HALF INCH OF QPF
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES OF GFS/ECMWF ARE OFFERING WIDE
VARIATION IN POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...SO HAVE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
LATE WEEK FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR A TRAVEL-HEAVY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN
PLACE. MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME IFR OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN
VLIFR BY EARLY SAT MRNG. WE WILL ALSO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP AS
WELL...THOUGH THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP VISBYS GENERALLY
ABOVE 1 MILE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY SAT AFTN THOUGH WITH
CLOUD BASES INCREASE TO MVFR AND VISBY RESTRICTIONS DIMINISHING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KOAX 200028
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THEN
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WERE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. HOWEVER SOME CLEARING WAS NOTED IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WORKING EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE POINTS TO A REINFORCEMENT OF CLOUDS/FOG OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SIMILAR IN MOIST/CLOUD DEPTH COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP LAYER JUST ABOVE
CLOUD TOP SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 04Z TO 12Z. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS...SO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS SUGGEST IMPACTS WILL
BE MINIMAL. SIMILAR SITUATION IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR AREA.

CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART ON SATURDAY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT CONTINUES.
THUS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 20S OR LOW 30S.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH OVER TOP OF SURFACE FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN OUR WEST IN THE EVENING AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES
COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROGS POINT TO MAINLY A RAIN EVENT
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. NAM IS COOLEST OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WOULD
CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA BEFORE ENDING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION WING ALOFT. HOWEVER
COULD SEE LINGERING RAIN IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C MOST
OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON MAY IGNITE SNOW SHOWERS THERE.
TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD HIT HIGHS IN THE MORNING NORTH AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTH BEFORE FALLING AS STRONGER COOL ADVECTION INVADES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE EXITING ON TUESDAY. CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL RESULT
DURING THIS TIME.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHALLOW UPPER RIDGING WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPS SOMEWHAT. BY
THURSDAY...INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OR EAST WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
WEAKER THAN ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM AND JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF HAS A MORE WOUND UP
SURFACE LOW WITH A FAVORABLE SNOW-PRODUCING TRACK THROUGH EASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND PAINTS ABOUT A HALF INCH OF QPF
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES OF GFS/ECMWF ARE OFFERING WIDE
VARIATION IN POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...SO HAVE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
LATE WEEK FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR A TRAVEL-HEAVY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS LOCKED IN
PLACE. MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME IFR OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN
VLIFR BY EARLY SAT MRNG. WE WILL ALSO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP AS
WELL...THOUGH THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP VISBYS GENERALLY
ABOVE 1 MILE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY SAT AFTN THOUGH WITH
CLOUD BASES INCREASE TO MVFR AND VISBY RESTRICTIONS DIMINISHING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KGID 200001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
601 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO...BUT SOME LIGHT FOG PERSISTS.

WATCHING THE VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST HAVE
BEEN INCLINED TO KEEP THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. UNDER
THE CLOUDS THE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR EVEN THE SOUTHEAST A BIT
AND THIS HAS MADE IT HARD FOR THE CLEARING LINE TO CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES THE WINDS ARE
FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BE PUSHING DRIER AIR DOWN SLOPE WHICH
SHOULD HELP THE CLEARING. AT THIS TIME THE SOUTH WINDS SEEM TO BE
WINNING THAT BATTLE.

TWO MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE FORECAST. FIRST HOW FAR EAST WILL
THE CLOUDS MOVE AND SECOND WHETHER THERE WILL BE FOG NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST EVEN THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE WEST WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST
A LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TOUGH IN THE
EAST...BUT THE WEST ESPECIALLY AND EVEN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURING THE NIGHT. THAT BRINGS
WITH IT THE COOLING TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA. HOW MUCH...WHERE AND HOW LOW
WILL BE VISIBILITY BE ARE ALL QUESTIONS THAT PROVIDE A CHALLENGE.
SINCE MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAVE YET VISIBILITY OF
MORE THAN 5 MILES...WILL MAKE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LIGHT FOG
SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN DURING THE NIGHT.
HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. CURRENTLY
THE NAM AND HRRR ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT INDICATE THERE WOULD BE
SOME FOG AROUND THE AREA. THE NAM KEEPS IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND
FAIRLY LIGHT WHILE THE HRRR GIVES SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES FURTHER
WEST. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR WHERE THE CLEARING LINE WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT EXPECT THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES TO BE IN THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT NOT SURE HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL
BE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AS A MODEL EXPECT THERE COULD
BE SOME VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE SOMEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A PROGRESSIVE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FORECAST TO DIVE INTO
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT...AND COULD SEE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
WAVE...THEY DIVERGE EVEN MORE AS WE TRANSITION INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BEYOND...WITH THE EC STILL MAINTAINING A MUCH BROADER TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE GFS KEEPS THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE
MUCH FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO THE DIVERGENCE OF THE GUIDANCE...BLENDED
FORECAST DROPPED POPS FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THE DAY AFTER...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH THE CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 10 DAYS TO BE
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE FOCUS OF SOME FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...THINK IT IS PROBABLE THAT WE MIGHT STILL SEE SOME FOG
FROM ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 281 EASTWARD TO START THE DAY SUNDAY...CLOSER
TO THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...OPTED TO INTRODUCE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECT TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE WIND COMBINED WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD MAKE FOR
A RELATIVELY NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING MAINLY THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA.
BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...BUT LOOKING
AT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND WARM LAYER ALOFT...THIS THE IS LIKELY
TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY CLIP THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THIS PERIOD. AS
THE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...THE CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIP OVER THIS PERIOD IS LOW AND
KEPT TEMPERATURES SEASONAL AND FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A RESULT.

THEREAFTER...WHAT LOOKED LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS APPEARS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE
APPARENT. AS A RESULT...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SAW NO REASON TO
DIVERGE FROM BLENDED FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE KEAR/KGRI
AREA. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS BEEN NOTED THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS WITHIN 25 TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE
EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK...WHICH KEAR AND KGRI ARE NOW IN THAT
ZONE. THEREFORE...AM CONCERNED THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH EVEN 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. FOG
IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT...BUT
GIVEN THE PATTERN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS BELIEVE IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING RATHER STRONGLY IN THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 200001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
601 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO...BUT SOME LIGHT FOG PERSISTS.

WATCHING THE VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST HAVE
BEEN INCLINED TO KEEP THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. UNDER
THE CLOUDS THE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR EVEN THE SOUTHEAST A BIT
AND THIS HAS MADE IT HARD FOR THE CLEARING LINE TO CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES THE WINDS ARE
FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BE PUSHING DRIER AIR DOWN SLOPE WHICH
SHOULD HELP THE CLEARING. AT THIS TIME THE SOUTH WINDS SEEM TO BE
WINNING THAT BATTLE.

TWO MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE FORECAST. FIRST HOW FAR EAST WILL
THE CLOUDS MOVE AND SECOND WHETHER THERE WILL BE FOG NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST EVEN THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE WEST WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST
A LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TOUGH IN THE
EAST...BUT THE WEST ESPECIALLY AND EVEN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURING THE NIGHT. THAT BRINGS
WITH IT THE COOLING TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA. HOW MUCH...WHERE AND HOW LOW
WILL BE VISIBILITY BE ARE ALL QUESTIONS THAT PROVIDE A CHALLENGE.
SINCE MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAVE YET VISIBILITY OF
MORE THAN 5 MILES...WILL MAKE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LIGHT FOG
SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN DURING THE NIGHT.
HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. CURRENTLY
THE NAM AND HRRR ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT INDICATE THERE WOULD BE
SOME FOG AROUND THE AREA. THE NAM KEEPS IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND
FAIRLY LIGHT WHILE THE HRRR GIVES SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES FURTHER
WEST. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR WHERE THE CLEARING LINE WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT EXPECT THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES TO BE IN THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT NOT SURE HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL
BE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AS A MODEL EXPECT THERE COULD
BE SOME VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE SOMEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A PROGRESSIVE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FORECAST TO DIVE INTO
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT...AND COULD SEE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
WAVE...THEY DIVERGE EVEN MORE AS WE TRANSITION INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BEYOND...WITH THE EC STILL MAINTAINING A MUCH BROADER TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE GFS KEEPS THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE
MUCH FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO THE DIVERGENCE OF THE GUIDANCE...BLENDED
FORECAST DROPPED POPS FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THE DAY AFTER...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH THE CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 10 DAYS TO BE
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE FOCUS OF SOME FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...THINK IT IS PROBABLE THAT WE MIGHT STILL SEE SOME FOG
FROM ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 281 EASTWARD TO START THE DAY SUNDAY...CLOSER
TO THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...OPTED TO INTRODUCE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECT TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE WIND COMBINED WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD MAKE FOR
A RELATIVELY NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING MAINLY THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA.
BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...BUT LOOKING
AT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND WARM LAYER ALOFT...THIS THE IS LIKELY
TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY CLIP THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THIS PERIOD. AS
THE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...THE CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIP OVER THIS PERIOD IS LOW AND
KEPT TEMPERATURES SEASONAL AND FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A RESULT.

THEREAFTER...WHAT LOOKED LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS APPEARS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE
APPARENT. AS A RESULT...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SAW NO REASON TO
DIVERGE FROM BLENDED FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE KEAR/KGRI
AREA. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS BEEN NOTED THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS WITHIN 25 TO 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE
EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK...WHICH KEAR AND KGRI ARE NOW IN THAT
ZONE. THEREFORE...AM CONCERNED THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH EVEN 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. FOG
IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT...BUT
GIVEN THE PATTERN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS BELIEVE IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING RATHER STRONGLY IN THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KLBF 192335 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDGING EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IDENTIFICATION IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

CLOSER TO HOME...A QUICK MOVING COMPACT PV ANOMALY IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD HOWEVER VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURE. ENHANCED
FLOW SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG
REFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRATUS LINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LXN TO ONL THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH VSBYS LOOK BETTER
BASED ON NDOR WEB CAMS...KONL STILL REPORTING LESS THAN 3SM AT THE
MOMENT. BELIEVE BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS THAT VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN CUSTER INTO ERN HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES...BUT AFTER SUNSET VSBYS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THE
WRN EDGE OF STRATUS FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE
BBW AND LBF AREAS LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER WEST. HAVE GONE WITH A COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTION. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BEING TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
VERY TRICKY IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING IN THE ERN CUSTER TO ERN
HOLT COUNTY AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. END RESULT IS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS AND WARMER TEMPS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. NEXT WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K
LAYER WILL LIFT NEARLY SATURATED AIR INTO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER. DURING THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. AS THE LOWEST LEVEL COOLS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 290-300K LAYER CONTINUES
LIFTING SATURATED AIR INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WITH
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40F MOST AREAS...IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
THE LIFT CUTS OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS40 INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A CROSS
SECTION THROUGH THE AREA SHOWS THAT THE LIFT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND DIPPING SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND TURNING
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ONE
TAKEN BY THE CYCLONE THAT WENT ACROSS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS...WE END UP
WITH 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND 25-40 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 MIXED IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED IN VERY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH 15Z-18Z. THEREAFTER VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE
BANK OF LOW CLOUDS SETTLES JUST EAST OF HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CLOUDS MAY BACK WESTWARD DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 192335 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDGING EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IDENTIFICATION IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

CLOSER TO HOME...A QUICK MOVING COMPACT PV ANOMALY IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD HOWEVER VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURE. ENHANCED
FLOW SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG
REFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRATUS LINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LXN TO ONL THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH VSBYS LOOK BETTER
BASED ON NDOR WEB CAMS...KONL STILL REPORTING LESS THAN 3SM AT THE
MOMENT. BELIEVE BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS THAT VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN CUSTER INTO ERN HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES...BUT AFTER SUNSET VSBYS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THE
WRN EDGE OF STRATUS FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE
BBW AND LBF AREAS LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER WEST. HAVE GONE WITH A COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTION. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BEING TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
VERY TRICKY IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING IN THE ERN CUSTER TO ERN
HOLT COUNTY AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. END RESULT IS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS AND WARMER TEMPS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. NEXT WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K
LAYER WILL LIFT NEARLY SATURATED AIR INTO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER. DURING THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. AS THE LOWEST LEVEL COOLS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 290-300K LAYER CONTINUES
LIFTING SATURATED AIR INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WITH
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40F MOST AREAS...IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
THE LIFT CUTS OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS40 INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A CROSS
SECTION THROUGH THE AREA SHOWS THAT THE LIFT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND DIPPING SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND TURNING
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ONE
TAKEN BY THE CYCLONE THAT WENT ACROSS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS...WE END UP
WITH 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND 25-40 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 MIXED IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED IN VERY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH 15Z-18Z. THEREAFTER VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE
BANK OF LOW CLOUDS SETTLES JUST EAST OF HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CLOUDS MAY BACK WESTWARD DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 192335 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDGING EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IDENTIFICATION IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

CLOSER TO HOME...A QUICK MOVING COMPACT PV ANOMALY IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD HOWEVER VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURE. ENHANCED
FLOW SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG
REFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRATUS LINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LXN TO ONL THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH VSBYS LOOK BETTER
BASED ON NDOR WEB CAMS...KONL STILL REPORTING LESS THAN 3SM AT THE
MOMENT. BELIEVE BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS THAT VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN CUSTER INTO ERN HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES...BUT AFTER SUNSET VSBYS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THE
WRN EDGE OF STRATUS FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE
BBW AND LBF AREAS LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER WEST. HAVE GONE WITH A COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTION. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BEING TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
VERY TRICKY IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING IN THE ERN CUSTER TO ERN
HOLT COUNTY AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. END RESULT IS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS AND WARMER TEMPS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. NEXT WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K
LAYER WILL LIFT NEARLY SATURATED AIR INTO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER. DURING THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. AS THE LOWEST LEVEL COOLS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 290-300K LAYER CONTINUES
LIFTING SATURATED AIR INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WITH
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40F MOST AREAS...IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
THE LIFT CUTS OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS40 INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A CROSS
SECTION THROUGH THE AREA SHOWS THAT THE LIFT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND DIPPING SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND TURNING
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ONE
TAKEN BY THE CYCLONE THAT WENT ACROSS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS...WE END UP
WITH 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND 25-40 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 MIXED IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED IN VERY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH 15Z-18Z. THEREAFTER VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE
BANK OF LOW CLOUDS SETTLES JUST EAST OF HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CLOUDS MAY BACK WESTWARD DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 192335 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDGING EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IDENTIFICATION IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

CLOSER TO HOME...A QUICK MOVING COMPACT PV ANOMALY IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD HOWEVER VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURE. ENHANCED
FLOW SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG
REFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRATUS LINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LXN TO ONL THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH VSBYS LOOK BETTER
BASED ON NDOR WEB CAMS...KONL STILL REPORTING LESS THAN 3SM AT THE
MOMENT. BELIEVE BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS THAT VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN CUSTER INTO ERN HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES...BUT AFTER SUNSET VSBYS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THE
WRN EDGE OF STRATUS FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE
BBW AND LBF AREAS LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER WEST. HAVE GONE WITH A COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTION. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BEING TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
VERY TRICKY IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING IN THE ERN CUSTER TO ERN
HOLT COUNTY AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. END RESULT IS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS AND WARMER TEMPS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. NEXT WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K
LAYER WILL LIFT NEARLY SATURATED AIR INTO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER. DURING THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. AS THE LOWEST LEVEL COOLS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 290-300K LAYER CONTINUES
LIFTING SATURATED AIR INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WITH
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40F MOST AREAS...IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
THE LIFT CUTS OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS40 INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A CROSS
SECTION THROUGH THE AREA SHOWS THAT THE LIFT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND DIPPING SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND TURNING
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ONE
TAKEN BY THE CYCLONE THAT WENT ACROSS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS...WE END UP
WITH 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND 25-40 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 MIXED IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED IN VERY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH 15Z-18Z. THEREAFTER VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE
BANK OF LOW CLOUDS SETTLES JUST EAST OF HOLT AND WHEELER COUNTIES.
THERE IS A CHANCE THESE CLOUDS MAY BACK WESTWARD DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KOAX 192109
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
3:10 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THEN
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WERE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. HOWEVER SOME CLEARING WAS NOTED IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WORKING EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE POINTS TO A REINFORCEMENT OF CLOUDS/FOG OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SIMILAR IN MOIST/CLOUD DEPTH COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP LAYER JUST ABOVE
CLOUD TOP SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 04Z TO 12Z. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS...SO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS SUGGEST IMPACTS WILL
BE MINIMAL. SIMILAR SITUATION IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR AREA.

CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART ON SATURDAY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT CONTINUES.
THUS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 20S OR LOW 30S.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH OVER TOP OF SURFACE FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN OUR WEST IN THE EVENING AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES
COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROGS POINT TO MAINLY A RAIN EVENT
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. NAM IS COOLEST OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WOULD
CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA BEFORE ENDING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION WING ALOFT. HOWEVER
COULD SEE LINGERING RAIN IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C MOST
OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON MAY IGNITE SNOW SHOWERS THERE.
TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD HIT HIGHS IN THE MORNING NORTH AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTH BEFORE FALLING AS STRONGER COOL ADVECTION INVADES.


MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
EXITING ON TUESDAY. CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL RESULT DURING
THIS TIME.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHALLOW UPPER RIDGING WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPS SOMEWHAT. BY
THURSDAY...INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OR EAST WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
WEAKER THAN ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM AND JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF HAS A MORE WOUND UP
SURFACE LOW WITH A FAVORABLE SNOW-PRODUCING TRACK THROUGH EASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND PAINTS ABOUT A HALF INCH OF QPF
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES OF GFS/ECMWF ARE OFFERING WIDE
VARIATION IN POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...SO HAVE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
LATE WEEK FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR A TRAVEL-HEAVY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

REGIONAL OBS REPORTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS
ERN NEB THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...FALSE COLOR SATL IMAGERY REVEALING
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING OVER CNTRL NEB WAS MAKING ITS WAY EWD. GIVEN
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...APPEARS THAT ALL SITE WILL SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THOUGH EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT WITH FLGT CAT DROPPING
INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KOFK AND KOMA...AND MVFR AT KLNK BTWN 10Z-
14Z SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEN TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 192109
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
3:10 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THEN
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WERE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. HOWEVER SOME CLEARING WAS NOTED IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WORKING EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE POINTS TO A REINFORCEMENT OF CLOUDS/FOG OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SIMILAR IN MOIST/CLOUD DEPTH COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP LAYER JUST ABOVE
CLOUD TOP SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FROM ABOUT 04Z TO 12Z. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS...SO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS SUGGEST IMPACTS WILL
BE MINIMAL. SIMILAR SITUATION IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR AREA.

CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART ON SATURDAY AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT CONTINUES.
THUS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 20S OR LOW 30S.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH OVER TOP OF SURFACE FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN OUR WEST IN THE EVENING AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES
COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROGS POINT TO MAINLY A RAIN EVENT
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. NAM IS COOLEST OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WOULD
CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA BEFORE ENDING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION WING ALOFT. HOWEVER
COULD SEE LINGERING RAIN IN OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C MOST
OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON MAY IGNITE SNOW SHOWERS THERE.
TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD HIT HIGHS IN THE MORNING NORTH AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUTH BEFORE FALLING AS STRONGER COOL ADVECTION INVADES.


MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
EXITING ON TUESDAY. CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL RESULT DURING
THIS TIME.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHALLOW UPPER RIDGING WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPS SOMEWHAT. BY
THURSDAY...INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OR EAST WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS IS
WEAKER THAN ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM AND JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF HAS A MORE WOUND UP
SURFACE LOW WITH A FAVORABLE SNOW-PRODUCING TRACK THROUGH EASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND PAINTS ABOUT A HALF INCH OF QPF
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES OF GFS/ECMWF ARE OFFERING WIDE
VARIATION IN POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...SO HAVE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
LATE WEEK FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ONE FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR A TRAVEL-HEAVY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

REGIONAL OBS REPORTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS
ERN NEB THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...FALSE COLOR SATL IMAGERY REVEALING
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING OVER CNTRL NEB WAS MAKING ITS WAY EWD. GIVEN
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...APPEARS THAT ALL SITE WILL SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THOUGH EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT WITH FLGT CAT DROPPING
INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KOFK AND KOMA...AND MVFR AT KLNK BTWN 10Z-
14Z SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEN TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KLBF 192051
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
251 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDGING EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IDENTIFICATION IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

CLOSER TO HOME...A QUICK MOVING COMPACT PV ANOMALY IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD HOWEVER VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURE. ENHANCED
FLOW SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG
REFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRATUS LINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LXN TO ONL THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH VSBYS LOOK BETTER
BASED ON NDOR WEB CAMS...KONL STILL REPORTING LESS THAN 3SM AT THE
MOMENT. BELIEVE BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS THAT VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN CUSTER INTO ERN HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES...BUT AFTER SUNSET VSBYS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THE
WRN EDGE OF STRATUS FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE
BBW AND LBF AREAS LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER WEST. HAVE GONE WITH A COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTION. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BEING TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
VERY TRICKY IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING IN THE ERN CUSTER TO ERN
HOLT COUNTY AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. END RESULT IS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS AND WARMER TEMPS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. NEXT WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K
LAYER WILL LIFT NEARLY SATURATED AIR INTO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER. DURING THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. AS THE LOWEST LEVEL COOLS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 290-300K LAYER CONTINUES
LIFTING SATURATED AIR INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WITH
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40F MOST AREAS...IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
THE LIFT CUTS OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS40 INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A CROSS
SECTION THROUGH THE AREA SHOWS THAT THE LIFT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND DIPPING SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND TURNING
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ONE
TAKEN BY THE CYCLONE THAT WENT ACROSS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS...WE END UP
WITH 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND 25-40 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAINLY VFR FOR THE KVTN AND KLBF TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE KLBF TAF PERIOD TWD EARLY
MORNING. WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY
LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A RESULT OF
MELTING SNOW...WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE AS TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE PATTERN APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS SUCH AS KLBF.
HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
REDUCED VSBYS THIS FAR WEST OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ON THE 5SM BR FOR KLBF.

FOG REOCCURRANCE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...EAST OF A LINE FROM ATKINSON TO BROKEN BOW TO
STOCKVILLE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JWS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 192051
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
251 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

STRONG PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE GULF OF AK. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE RIDGING EXISTS FROM
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...STRONG NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WHICH IS AN
EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET. THIS IDENTIFICATION IS IMPORTANT IN
UNDERSTANDING THE EVENTUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

CLOSER TO HOME...A QUICK MOVING COMPACT PV ANOMALY IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD HOWEVER VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FEATURE. ENHANCED
FLOW SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CLEARING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME FOG REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE FOG
REFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. STRATUS LINE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR LXN TO ONL THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH VSBYS LOOK BETTER
BASED ON NDOR WEB CAMS...KONL STILL REPORTING LESS THAN 3SM AT THE
MOMENT. BELIEVE BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS THAT VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM ERN CUSTER INTO ERN HOLT AND
BOYD COUNTIES...BUT AFTER SUNSET VSBYS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THE
WRN EDGE OF STRATUS FORMATION...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ACROSS THE
BBW AND LBF AREAS LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED BY
CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THOSE AREAS...BUT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL EXISTS FURTHER WEST. HAVE GONE WITH A COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE SOLUTION. SOME CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS
DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS AFTERNOON BEING TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. TEMP FORECAST
VERY TRICKY IN ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING IN THE ERN CUSTER TO ERN
HOLT COUNTY AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. END RESULT IS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY MOST AREAS AND WARMER TEMPS AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOW COVER. NEXT WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SYSTEM RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K
LAYER WILL LIFT NEARLY SATURATED AIR INTO A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
LAYER. DURING THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE
RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW. AS THE LOWEST LEVEL COOLS...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 290-300K LAYER CONTINUES
LIFTING SATURATED AIR INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. WITH
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40F MOST AREAS...IT COULD BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
THE LIFT CUTS OFF BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS40 INDICATES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A CROSS
SECTION THROUGH THE AREA SHOWS THAT THE LIFT IS PRIMARILY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND DIPPING SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND TURNING
NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ONE
TAKEN BY THE CYCLONE THAT WENT ACROSS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO BLEND THE TWO PRIMARY EXTENDED MODELS...WE END UP
WITH 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND 25-40 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITIES THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAINLY VFR FOR THE KVTN AND KLBF TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE KLBF TAF PERIOD TWD EARLY
MORNING. WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY
LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A RESULT OF
MELTING SNOW...WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE AS TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE PATTERN APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS SUCH AS KLBF.
HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
REDUCED VSBYS THIS FAR WEST OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ON THE 5SM BR FOR KLBF.

FOG REOCCURRANCE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...EAST OF A LINE FROM ATKINSON TO BROKEN BOW TO
STOCKVILLE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JWS






000
FXUS63 KGID 192043
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
243 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO...BUT SOME LIGHT FOG PERSISTS.

WATCHING THE VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST HAVE
BEEN INCLINED TO KEEP THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. UNDER
THE CLOUDS THE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR EVEN THE SOUTHEAST A BIT
AND THIS HAS MADE IT HARD FOR THE CLEARING LINE TO CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES THE WINDS ARE
FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BE PUSHING DRIER AIR DOWN SLOPE WHICH
SHOULD HELP THE CLEARING. AT THIS TIME THE SOUTH WINDS SEEM TO BE
WINNING THAT BATTLE.

TWO MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE FORECAST. FIRST HOW FAR EAST WILL
THE CLOUDS MOVE AND SECOND WHETHER THERE WILL BE FOG NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST EVEN THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE WEST WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST
A LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TOUGH IN THE
EAST...BUT THE WEST ESPECIALLY AND EVEN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURING THE NIGHT. THAT BRINGS
WITH IT THE COOLING TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA. HOW MUCH...WHERE AND HOW LOW
WILL BE VISIBILITY BE ARE ALL QUESTIONS THAT PROVIDE A CHALLENGE.
SINCE MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAVE YET VISIBILITY OF
MORE THAN 5 MILES...WILL MAKE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LIGHT FOG
SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN DURING THE NIGHT.
HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. CURRENTLY
THE NAM AND HRRR ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT INDICATE THERE WOULD BE
SOME FOG AROUND THE AREA. THE NAM KEEPS IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND
FAIRLY LIGHT WHILE THE HRRR GIVES SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES FURTHER
WEST. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR WHERE THE CLEARING LINE WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT EXPECT THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES TO BE IN THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT NOT SURE HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL
BE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AS A MODEL EXPECT THERE COULD
BE SOME VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE SOMEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A PROGRESSIVE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FORECAST TO DIVE INTO
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT...AND COULD SEE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
WAVE...THEY DIVERGE EVEN MORE AS WE TRANSITION INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BEYOND...WITH THE EC STILL MAINTAINING A MUCH BROADER TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE GFS KEEPS THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE
MUCH FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO THE DIVERGENCE OF THE GUIDANCE...BLENDED
FORECAST DROPPED POPS FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THE DAY AFTER...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH THE CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 10 DAYS TO BE
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE FOCUS OF SOME FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...THINK IT IS PROBABLE THAT WE MIGHT STILL SEE SOME FOG
FROM ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 281 EASTWARD TO START THE DAY SUNDAY...CLOSER
TO THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...OPTED TO INTRODUCE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECT TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE WIND COMBINED WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD MAKE FOR
A RELATIVELY NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING MAINLY THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA.
BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...BUT LOOKING
AT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND WARM LAYER ALOFT...THIS THE IS LIKELY
TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY CLIP THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THIS PERIOD. AS
THE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...THE CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIP OVER THIS PERIOD IS LOW AND
KEPT TEMPERATURES SEASONAL AND FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A RESULT.

THEREAFTER...WHAT LOOKED LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS APPEARS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE
APPARENT. AS A RESULT...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SAW NO REASON TO
DIVERGE FROM BLENDED FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE KEAR TERMINAL AREA...BUT THERE HAS
BEEN SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA. EXPECT THERE WILL
BE AN IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PROVE A CHALLENGE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS
TO THE WEST OF KEAR AND EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE KEAR TERMINAL AREA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
GET INTO KGRI. ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS MOVE OUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME FOG REFORMING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 192043
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
243 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO...BUT SOME LIGHT FOG PERSISTS.

WATCHING THE VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST HAVE
BEEN INCLINED TO KEEP THE CLOUDS LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. UNDER
THE CLOUDS THE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR EVEN THE SOUTHEAST A BIT
AND THIS HAS MADE IT HARD FOR THE CLEARING LINE TO CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES THE WINDS ARE
FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BE PUSHING DRIER AIR DOWN SLOPE WHICH
SHOULD HELP THE CLEARING. AT THIS TIME THE SOUTH WINDS SEEM TO BE
WINNING THAT BATTLE.

TWO MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE FORECAST. FIRST HOW FAR EAST WILL
THE CLOUDS MOVE AND SECOND WHETHER THERE WILL BE FOG NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST EVEN THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE WEST WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST
A LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TOUGH IN THE
EAST...BUT THE WEST ESPECIALLY AND EVEN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME CLEARING DURING THE NIGHT. THAT BRINGS
WITH IT THE COOLING TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN THE WEST
DURING THE MORNING TODAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA. HOW MUCH...WHERE AND HOW LOW
WILL BE VISIBILITY BE ARE ALL QUESTIONS THAT PROVIDE A CHALLENGE.
SINCE MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAVE YET VISIBILITY OF
MORE THAN 5 MILES...WILL MAKE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LIGHT FOG
SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RETURN DURING THE NIGHT.
HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. CURRENTLY
THE NAM AND HRRR ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT INDICATE THERE WOULD BE
SOME FOG AROUND THE AREA. THE NAM KEEPS IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND
FAIRLY LIGHT WHILE THE HRRR GIVES SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES FURTHER
WEST. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR WHERE THE CLEARING LINE WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT EXPECT THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES TO BE IN THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT NOT SURE HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL
BE...ALTHOUGH WITH THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AS A MODEL EXPECT THERE COULD
BE SOME VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE SOMEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A PROGRESSIVE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FORECAST TO DIVE INTO
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT...AND COULD SEE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
WAVE...THEY DIVERGE EVEN MORE AS WE TRANSITION INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
AND BEYOND...WITH THE EC STILL MAINTAINING A MUCH BROADER TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE GFS KEEPS THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE
MUCH FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO THE DIVERGENCE OF THE GUIDANCE...BLENDED
FORECAST DROPPED POPS FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THE DAY AFTER...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH THE CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 10 DAYS TO BE
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
THE FOCUS OF SOME FOG ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...THINK IT IS PROBABLE THAT WE MIGHT STILL SEE SOME FOG
FROM ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 281 EASTWARD TO START THE DAY SUNDAY...CLOSER
TO THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS. AS A RESULT OF THIS...OPTED TO INTRODUCE
PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECT TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE WIND COMBINED WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...SHOULD MAKE FOR
A RELATIVELY NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...EXPECT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING MAINLY THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA.
BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED INTRODUCING A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...BUT LOOKING
AT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND WARM LAYER ALOFT...THIS THE IS LIKELY
TO BE MAINLY A LIGHT RAIN EVENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY CLIP THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THIS PERIOD. AS
THE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...THE CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIP OVER THIS PERIOD IS LOW AND
KEPT TEMPERATURES SEASONAL AND FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A RESULT.

THEREAFTER...WHAT LOOKED LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS APPEARS A BIT MORE IN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE
APPARENT. AS A RESULT...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SAW NO REASON TO
DIVERGE FROM BLENDED FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE KEAR TERMINAL AREA...BUT THERE HAS
BEEN SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA. EXPECT THERE WILL
BE AN IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PROVE A CHALLENGE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS
TO THE WEST OF KEAR AND EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE KEAR TERMINAL AREA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
GET INTO KGRI. ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS MOVE OUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME FOG REFORMING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KLBF 191822
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1222 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA AND MOST OF KANSAS. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO A QUARTER MILE CONTINUES FROM NEAR
HAYES CENTER THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW AND BASSETT. FURTHER
EAST WITHIN THE STRATUS...PATCHY FOG WITH CURRENT VSBYS FROM 2-5SM.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 29 AT ONL TO 12 AT
VTN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND INTO THE MID AFTERNOON IN
HOLT...WHEELER AND GARFIELD COUNTIES...THE SLOWER EROSION IS
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THOUGH THE HRRR ALSO
KEEP LOWER VSBYS ALL AFTERNOON. ACTUAL FCST HAS INCREASED VSBYS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THERE...BUT CURRENT FCST HAS A REFORMATION
LATER THIS EVENING WHICH STILL LOOKS GOOD...THOUGH THE AREA MAY BE
REDEFINED A BIT. OTHERWISE THE MAXS TODAY WERE WARMED SLIGHTLY IN
THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS WHERE TEMPS SEEMS TO WARM MORE QUICKLY...BUT
THINK WARMEST MAXES WILL BE IN SNOW-FREE AREA OF HAYES AND
FRONTIER COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

HAVE DELAYED THE DISSIPATION OF THE FOG IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA FOR AN HOUR. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS
MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR IN ERN HOLT AND ERN CUSTER COUNTIES...THOUGH
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MORE CLEARING THAN MODELS
SUGGEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST...AND EFFECT OF SNOW COVER WHERE SUN DOES SHINE.
OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT WINDS THE DAY SHOULD BE MORE QUIET THAN DAYS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG
FURTHER EAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR EAST OF A
BROKEN BOW THROUGH ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS TO NEAR 3C FROM VTN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH OGA AND IML SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40. WITH LIGHT WINDS REMAINING SOUTH AND STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT ONL AND BARTLETT...HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S.
CURRENT FORECAST TO BE NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE
ALL AREAS DUE TO EXISTING SNOW COVER EFFECTS.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. EXPECTING AN INCREASING IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AS AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. SUBSTANTIAL
ONSHORE MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. LOWS TO FALL  INTO THE MID
TEENS...WITH COLDER LOWS NEAR 10 ABOVE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR SFC HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE FOG AND/OR STRATUS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE RESULT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH TEENS ANTICIPATED
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN FULLY DECOUPLE /RIVER VALLEYS/...BUT
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
5C ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SHOWN FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE REGION...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE
CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE STRONGER JET SUPPORT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WEST. THUS THERES A DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL RESIDE...THE GFS FAVORS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND CUSTER
COUNTIES...THE EURO IS WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO/WYOMING. FOR THIS...DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ON POPS
JUST YET...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE WORDING. IF
PRECIP OCCURS THERMO PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO MONDAY AS THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD PUSH OF SUB 0C H85
AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE EC IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR. LIGHT QPF MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR EAST AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND ADDITIONAL UL ENERGY DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL
SNOW AT THIS POINT.

THERE REMAINS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK THEN PROCEED TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ATOP THE SANDHILLS ON CHRISTMAS.  THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE A BIT ON THE PROJECTED SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR CHRISTMAS AND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAINLY VFR FOR THE KVTN AND KLBF TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE KLBF TAF PERIOD TWD EARLY
MORNING. WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY
LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A RESULT OF
MELTING SNOW...WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE AS TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE PATTERN APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS SUCH AS KLBF.
HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
REDUCED VSBYS THIS FAR WEST OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ON THE 5SM BR FOR KLBF.

FOG REOCCURRANCE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...EAST OF A LINE FROM ATKINSON TO BROKEN BOW TO
STOCKVILLE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS






000
FXUS63 KOAX 191749
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

REGIONAL OBS REPORTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS
ERN NEB THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...FALSE COLOR SATL IMAGERY REVEALING
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING OVER CNTRL NEB WAS MAKING ITS WAY EWD. GIVEN
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...APPEARS THAT ALL SITE WILL SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THOUGH EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT WITH FLGT CAT DROPPING
INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KOFK AND KOMA...AND MVFR AT KLNK BTWN 10Z-
14Z SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEN TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 191749
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

REGIONAL OBS REPORTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS
ERN NEB THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...FALSE COLOR SATL IMAGERY REVEALING
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING OVER CNTRL NEB WAS MAKING ITS WAY EWD. GIVEN
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...APPEARS THAT ALL SITE WILL SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THOUGH EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT WITH FLGT CAT DROPPING
INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KOFK AND KOMA...AND MVFR AT KLNK BTWN 10Z-
14Z SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEN TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 191749
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

REGIONAL OBS REPORTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS
ERN NEB THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...FALSE COLOR SATL IMAGERY REVEALING
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING OVER CNTRL NEB WAS MAKING ITS WAY EWD. GIVEN
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...APPEARS THAT ALL SITE WILL SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THOUGH EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT WITH FLGT CAT DROPPING
INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KOFK AND KOMA...AND MVFR AT KLNK BTWN 10Z-
14Z SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEN TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 191749
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

REGIONAL OBS REPORTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS
ERN NEB THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...FALSE COLOR SATL IMAGERY REVEALING
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING OVER CNTRL NEB WAS MAKING ITS WAY EWD. GIVEN
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...APPEARS THAT ALL SITE WILL SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID AFTN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THOUGH EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT WITH FLGT CAT DROPPING
INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KOFK AND KOMA...AND MVFR AT KLNK BTWN 10Z-
14Z SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT THEN TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KLBF 191732
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA AND MOST OF KANSAS. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO A QUARTER MILE CONTINUES FROM NEAR
HAYES CENTER THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW AND BASSETT. FURTHER
EAST WITHIN THE STRATUS...PATCHY FOG WITH CURRENT VSBYS FROM 2-5SM.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 29 AT ONL TO 12 AT
VTN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

HAVE DELAYED THE DISSIPATION OF THE FOG IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA FOR AN HOUR. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS
MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR IN ERN HOLT AND ERN CUSTER COUNTIES...THOUGH
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MORE CLEARING THAN MODELS
SUGGEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST...AND EFFECT OF SNOW COVER WHERE SUN DOES SHINE.
OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT WINDS THE DAY SHOULD BE MORE QUIET THAN DAYS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG
FURTHER EAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR EAST OF A
BROKEN BOW THROUGH ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS TO NEAR 3C FROM VTN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH OGA AND IML SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40. WITH LIGHT WINDS REMAINING SOUTH AND STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT ONL AND BARTLETT...HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S.
CURRENT FORECAST TO BE NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE
ALL AREAS DUE TO EXISTING SNOW COVER EFFECTS.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. EXPECTING AN INCREASING IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AS AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. SUBSTANTIAL
ONSHORE MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. LOWS TO FALL  INTO THE MID
TEENS...WITH COLDER LOWS NEAR 10 ABOVE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR SFC HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE FOG AND/OR STRATUS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE RESULT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH TEENS ANTICIPATED
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN FULLY DECOUPLE /RIVER VALLEYS/...BUT
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
5C ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SHOWN FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE REGION...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE
CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE STRONGER JET SUPPORT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WEST. THUS THERES A DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL RESIDE...THE GFS FAVORS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND CUSTER
COUNTIES...THE EURO IS WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO/WYOMING. FOR THIS...DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ON POPS
JUST YET...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE WORDING. IF
PRECIP OCCURS THERMO PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO MONDAY AS THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD PUSH OF SUB 0C H85
AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE EC IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR. LIGHT QPF MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR EAST AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND ADDITIONAL UL ENERGY DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL
SNOW AT THIS POINT.

THERE REMAINS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK THEN PROCEED TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ATOP THE SANDHILLS ON CHRISTMAS.  THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE A BIT ON THE PROJECTED SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR CHRISTMAS AND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAINLY VFR FOR THE KVTN AND KLBF TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE KLBF TAF PERIOD TWD EARLY
MORNING. WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY
LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A RESULT OF
MELTING SNOW...WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE AS TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE PATTERN APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY AREAS SUCH AS KLBF.
HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
REDUCED VSBYS THIS FAR WEST OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ON THE 5SM BR FOR KLBF.

FOG REOCCURRANCE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...EAST OF A LINE FROM ATKINSON TO BROKEN BOW TO
STOCKVILLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS






000
FXUS63 KGID 191731
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1131 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE KEAR TERMINAL AREA...BUT THERE HAS
BEEN SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA. EXPECT THERE WILL
BE AN IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PROVE A CHALLENGE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS
TO THE WEST OF KEAR AND EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE KEAR TERMINAL AREA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
GET INTO KGRI. ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS MOVE OUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME FOG REFORMING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 191731
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1131 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE KEAR TERMINAL AREA...BUT THERE HAS
BEEN SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA. EXPECT THERE WILL
BE AN IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PROVE A CHALLENGE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS
TO THE WEST OF KEAR AND EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE KEAR TERMINAL AREA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
GET INTO KGRI. ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS MOVE OUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME FOG REFORMING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 191731
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1131 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE KEAR TERMINAL AREA...BUT THERE HAS
BEEN SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA. EXPECT THERE WILL
BE AN IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PROVE A CHALLENGE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS
TO THE WEST OF KEAR AND EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE KEAR TERMINAL AREA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
GET INTO KGRI. ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS MOVE OUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME FOG REFORMING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 191731
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1131 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE KEAR TERMINAL AREA...BUT THERE HAS
BEEN SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA. EXPECT THERE WILL
BE AN IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PROVE A CHALLENGE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS
TO THE WEST OF KEAR AND EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE KEAR TERMINAL AREA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
GET INTO KGRI. ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS MOVE OUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME FOG REFORMING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KLBF 191552
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
952 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA AND MOST OF KANSAS. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO A QUARTER MILE CONTINUES FROM NEAR
HAYES CENTER THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW AND BASSETT. FURTHER
EAST WITHIN THE STRATUS...PATCHY FOG WITH CURRENT VSBYS FROM 2-5SM.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 29 AT ONL TO 12 AT
VTN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

HAVE DELAYED THE DISSIPATION OF THE FOG IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA FOR AN HOUR. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS
MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR IN ERN HOLT AND ERN CUSTER COUNTIES...THOUGH
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MORE CLEARING THAN MODELS
SUGGEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST...AND EFFECT OF SNOW COVER WHERE SUN DOES SHINE.
OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT WINDS THE DAY SHOULD BE MORE QUIET THAN DAYS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG
FURTHER EAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR EAST OF A
BROKEN BOW THROUGH ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS TO NEAR 3C FROM VTN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH OGA AND IML SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40. WITH LIGHT WINDS REMAINING SOUTH AND STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT ONL AND BARTLETT...HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S.
CURRENT FORECAST TO BE NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE
ALL AREAS DUE TO EXISTING SNOW COVER EFFECTS.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. EXPECTING AN INCREASING IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AS AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. SUBSTANTIAL
ONSHORE MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. LOWS TO FALL  INTO THE MID
TEENS...WITH COLDER LOWS NEAR 10 ABOVE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR SFC HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE FOG AND/OR STRATUS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE RESULT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH TEENS ANTICIPATED
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN FULLY DECOUPLE /RIVER VALLEYS/...BUT
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
5C ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SHOWN FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE REGION...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE
CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE STRONGER JET SUPPORT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WEST. THUS THERES A DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL RESIDE...THE GFS FAVORS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND CUSTER
COUNTIES...THE EURO IS WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO/WYOMING. FOR THIS...DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ON POPS
JUST YET...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE WORDING. IF
PRECIP OCCURS THERMO PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO MONDAY AS THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD PUSH OF SUB 0C H85
AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE EC IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR. LIGHT QPF MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR EAST AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND ADDITIONAL UL ENERGY DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL
SNOW AT THIS POINT.

THERE REMAINS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK THEN PROCEED TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ATOP THE SANDHILLS ON CHRISTMAS.  THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE A BIT ON THE PROJECTED SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR CHRISTMAS AND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KLBF AND KVTN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT SKC AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BELOW 10KT TODAY.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 191552
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
952 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA AND MOST OF KANSAS. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO A QUARTER MILE CONTINUES FROM NEAR
HAYES CENTER THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW AND BASSETT. FURTHER
EAST WITHIN THE STRATUS...PATCHY FOG WITH CURRENT VSBYS FROM 2-5SM.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 29 AT ONL TO 12 AT
VTN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

HAVE DELAYED THE DISSIPATION OF THE FOG IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA FOR AN HOUR. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS
MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR IN ERN HOLT AND ERN CUSTER COUNTIES...THOUGH
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MORE CLEARING THAN MODELS
SUGGEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST...AND EFFECT OF SNOW COVER WHERE SUN DOES SHINE.
OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT WINDS THE DAY SHOULD BE MORE QUIET THAN DAYS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG
FURTHER EAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR EAST OF A
BROKEN BOW THROUGH ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS TO NEAR 3C FROM VTN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH OGA AND IML SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40. WITH LIGHT WINDS REMAINING SOUTH AND STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT ONL AND BARTLETT...HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S.
CURRENT FORECAST TO BE NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE
ALL AREAS DUE TO EXISTING SNOW COVER EFFECTS.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. EXPECTING AN INCREASING IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AS AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. SUBSTANTIAL
ONSHORE MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. LOWS TO FALL  INTO THE MID
TEENS...WITH COLDER LOWS NEAR 10 ABOVE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR SFC HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE FOG AND/OR STRATUS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE RESULT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH TEENS ANTICIPATED
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN FULLY DECOUPLE /RIVER VALLEYS/...BUT
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
5C ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SHOWN FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE REGION...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE
CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE STRONGER JET SUPPORT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WEST. THUS THERES A DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL RESIDE...THE GFS FAVORS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND CUSTER
COUNTIES...THE EURO IS WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO/WYOMING. FOR THIS...DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ON POPS
JUST YET...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE WORDING. IF
PRECIP OCCURS THERMO PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO MONDAY AS THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD PUSH OF SUB 0C H85
AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE EC IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR. LIGHT QPF MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR EAST AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND ADDITIONAL UL ENERGY DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL
SNOW AT THIS POINT.

THERE REMAINS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK THEN PROCEED TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ATOP THE SANDHILLS ON CHRISTMAS.  THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE A BIT ON THE PROJECTED SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR CHRISTMAS AND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KLBF AND KVTN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT SKC AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BELOW 10KT TODAY.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 191552
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
952 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA AND MOST OF KANSAS. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO A QUARTER MILE CONTINUES FROM NEAR
HAYES CENTER THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW AND BASSETT. FURTHER
EAST WITHIN THE STRATUS...PATCHY FOG WITH CURRENT VSBYS FROM 2-5SM.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 29 AT ONL TO 12 AT
VTN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

HAVE DELAYED THE DISSIPATION OF THE FOG IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA FOR AN HOUR. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS
MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR IN ERN HOLT AND ERN CUSTER COUNTIES...THOUGH
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MORE CLEARING THAN MODELS
SUGGEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST...AND EFFECT OF SNOW COVER WHERE SUN DOES SHINE.
OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT WINDS THE DAY SHOULD BE MORE QUIET THAN DAYS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG
FURTHER EAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR EAST OF A
BROKEN BOW THROUGH ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS TO NEAR 3C FROM VTN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH OGA AND IML SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40. WITH LIGHT WINDS REMAINING SOUTH AND STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT ONL AND BARTLETT...HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S.
CURRENT FORECAST TO BE NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE
ALL AREAS DUE TO EXISTING SNOW COVER EFFECTS.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. EXPECTING AN INCREASING IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AS AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. SUBSTANTIAL
ONSHORE MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. LOWS TO FALL  INTO THE MID
TEENS...WITH COLDER LOWS NEAR 10 ABOVE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR SFC HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE FOG AND/OR STRATUS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE RESULT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH TEENS ANTICIPATED
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN FULLY DECOUPLE /RIVER VALLEYS/...BUT
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
5C ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SHOWN FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE REGION...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE
CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE STRONGER JET SUPPORT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WEST. THUS THERES A DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL RESIDE...THE GFS FAVORS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND CUSTER
COUNTIES...THE EURO IS WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO/WYOMING. FOR THIS...DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ON POPS
JUST YET...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE WORDING. IF
PRECIP OCCURS THERMO PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO MONDAY AS THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD PUSH OF SUB 0C H85
AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE EC IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR. LIGHT QPF MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR EAST AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND ADDITIONAL UL ENERGY DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL
SNOW AT THIS POINT.

THERE REMAINS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK THEN PROCEED TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ATOP THE SANDHILLS ON CHRISTMAS.  THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE A BIT ON THE PROJECTED SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR CHRISTMAS AND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KLBF AND KVTN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT SKC AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BELOW 10KT TODAY.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 191552
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
952 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA AND MOST OF KANSAS. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO A QUARTER MILE CONTINUES FROM NEAR
HAYES CENTER THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW AND BASSETT. FURTHER
EAST WITHIN THE STRATUS...PATCHY FOG WITH CURRENT VSBYS FROM 2-5SM.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 29 AT ONL TO 12 AT
VTN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

HAVE DELAYED THE DISSIPATION OF THE FOG IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA FOR AN HOUR. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS
MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR IN ERN HOLT AND ERN CUSTER COUNTIES...THOUGH
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MORE CLEARING THAN MODELS
SUGGEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST...AND EFFECT OF SNOW COVER WHERE SUN DOES SHINE.
OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT WINDS THE DAY SHOULD BE MORE QUIET THAN DAYS PAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG
FURTHER EAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR EAST OF A
BROKEN BOW THROUGH ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS TO NEAR 3C FROM VTN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH OGA AND IML SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40. WITH LIGHT WINDS REMAINING SOUTH AND STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT ONL AND BARTLETT...HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S.
CURRENT FORECAST TO BE NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE
ALL AREAS DUE TO EXISTING SNOW COVER EFFECTS.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. EXPECTING AN INCREASING IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AS AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. SUBSTANTIAL
ONSHORE MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. LOWS TO FALL  INTO THE MID
TEENS...WITH COLDER LOWS NEAR 10 ABOVE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR SFC HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE FOG AND/OR STRATUS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE RESULT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH TEENS ANTICIPATED
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN FULLY DECOUPLE /RIVER VALLEYS/...BUT
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
5C ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SHOWN FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE REGION...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE
CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE STRONGER JET SUPPORT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WEST. THUS THERES A DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL RESIDE...THE GFS FAVORS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND CUSTER
COUNTIES...THE EURO IS WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO/WYOMING. FOR THIS...DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ON POPS
JUST YET...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE WORDING. IF
PRECIP OCCURS THERMO PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO MONDAY AS THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD PUSH OF SUB 0C H85
AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE EC IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR. LIGHT QPF MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR EAST AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND ADDITIONAL UL ENERGY DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL
SNOW AT THIS POINT.

THERE REMAINS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK THEN PROCEED TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ATOP THE SANDHILLS ON CHRISTMAS.  THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE A BIT ON THE PROJECTED SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR CHRISTMAS AND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KLBF AND KVTN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT SKC AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BELOW 10KT TODAY.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 191133
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
533 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA AND MOST OF KANSAS. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO A QUARTER MILE CONTINUES FROM NEAR
HAYES CENTER THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW AND BASSETT. FURTHER
EAST WITHIN THE STRATUS...PATCHY FOG WITH CURRENT VSBYS FROM 2-5SM.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 29 AT ONL TO 12 AT
VTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG
FURTHER EAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR EAST OF A
BROKEN BOW THROUGH ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS TO NEAR 3C FROM VTN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH OGA AND IML SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40. WITH LIGHT WINDS REMAINING SOUTH AND STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT ONL AND BARTLETT...HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S.
CURRENT FORECAST TO BE NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE
ALL AREAS DUE TO EXISTING SNOW COVER EFFECTS.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. EXPECTING AN INCREASING IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AS AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. SUBSTANTIAL
ONSHORE MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. LOWS TO FALL  INTO THE MID
TEENS...WITH COLDER LOWS NEAR 10 ABOVE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR SFC HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE FOG AND/OR STRATUS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE RESULT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH TEENS ANTICIPATED
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN FULLY DECOUPLE /RIVER VALLEYS/...BUT
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
5C ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SHOWN FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE REGION...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE
CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE STRONGER JET SUPPORT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WEST. THUS THERES A DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL RESIDE...THE GFS FAVORS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND CUSTER
COUNTIES...THE EURO IS WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO/WYOMING. FOR THIS...DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ON POPS
JUST YET...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE WORDING. IF
PRECIP OCCURS THERMO PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO MONDAY AS THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD PUSH OF SUB 0C H85
AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE EC IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR. LIGHT QPF MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR EAST AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND ADDITIONAL UL ENERGY DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL
SNOW AT THIS POINT.

THERE REMAINS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK THEN PROCEED TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ATOP THE SANDHILLS ON CHRISTMAS.  THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE A BIT ON THE PROJECTED SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR CHRISTMAS AND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KLBF AND KVTN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT SKC AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BELOW 10KT TODAY.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KGID 191126
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
526 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AT KEAR...AND THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT AT
KGRI.

STRATUS...WITH A CEILING GENERALLY IN THE 500-1000FT AGL
RANGE...PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z. THIS STRATUS IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IS A TREND WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OBSERVED AT KEAR FIRST...AROUND
18Z...AND AT KGRI LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CEILING...SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BR COULD ALSO BE
OBSERVED...BUT AT THIS TIME NOTHING BELOW 6SM IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...GENERALLY SUSTAINED AT 5-8KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 191126
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
526 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AT KEAR...AND THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT AT
KGRI.

STRATUS...WITH A CEILING GENERALLY IN THE 500-1000FT AGL
RANGE...PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z. THIS STRATUS IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IS A TREND WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OBSERVED AT KEAR FIRST...AROUND
18Z...AND AT KGRI LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CEILING...SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BR COULD ALSO BE
OBSERVED...BUT AT THIS TIME NOTHING BELOW 6SM IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...GENERALLY SUSTAINED AT 5-8KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 191125
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR TODAY AS THICK CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSISTS. SOME RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 191125
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR TODAY AS THICK CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSISTS. SOME RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KGID 191016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
416 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR BY 15Z...AND AT KGRI BY
03Z.

STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z AND THIS IS A TREND
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. AN MVFR CEILING IS CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE AT BOTH TAF
SITES...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN IFR CEILING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
5-8KTS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE FOG TONIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 191016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
416 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR BY 15Z...AND AT KGRI BY
03Z.

STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z AND THIS IS A TREND
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. AN MVFR CEILING IS CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE AT BOTH TAF
SITES...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN IFR CEILING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
5-8KTS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE FOG TONIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 191016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
416 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR BY 15Z...AND AT KGRI BY
03Z.

STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z AND THIS IS A TREND
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. AN MVFR CEILING IS CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE AT BOTH TAF
SITES...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN IFR CEILING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
5-8KTS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE FOG TONIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 191016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
416 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR BY 15Z...AND AT KGRI BY
03Z.

STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z AND THIS IS A TREND
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. AN MVFR CEILING IS CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE AT BOTH TAF
SITES...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN IFR CEILING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
5-8KTS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE FOG TONIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 191016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
416 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR BY 15Z...AND AT KGRI BY
03Z.

STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z AND THIS IS A TREND
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. AN MVFR CEILING IS CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE AT BOTH TAF
SITES...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN IFR CEILING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
5-8KTS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE FOG TONIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 191016
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
416 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A
TROUGH IS NOTED STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
RESULTANT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST...WILL ADVANCE EAST
TODAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR AREA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
THEN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO OVERTAKE OUR
AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH THIS FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY WEAK TODAY AND AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SATURATION...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 280K SURFACE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PROMOTING A HEALTHY LAYER OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL MAKE A
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS...FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION HAS NOT BEEN TOO BAD...GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE 4-6SM RANGE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS SHIELD WHERE A THIN CORRIDOR OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN THE 1/4 - 1/2SM RANGE HAS DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED FOR MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY...INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO DIMINISH THE FOG. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG THEN SEEMS LIKELY TONIGHT BUT
AGAIN...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 4-
6SM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS A THING CORRIDOR OF 1/4 - 1/2SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD AS IT MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ASSUMING WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA CAN BREAK INTO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB THROUGH THE 30S
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KK61.
LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHEAST HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN MUCH MORE DENSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE
READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

ALTHOUGH ON THE SURFACE THIS 6-DAY TIME FRAME DOES NOT APPEAR TO
FEATURE A "LOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER"...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THERE
ARE LIKELY MORE FORECAST CHALLENGES THAN MIGHT MEET THE EYE AT
FIRST GLANCE AS THE GENERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE. JUST TO NAME A FEW QUESTIONS/CHALLENGES IN
GENERALLY CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:

1) CONFIDENCE IN SKY COVER AND ITS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES IN DEFINITELY BELOW AVERAGE ESPECIALLY RIGHT AWAY
DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS FORECAST HEAVILY
ASSUMES THAT THE AREA SHAKES AT LEAST PARTIALLY FREE OF THIS
SEEMINGLY-ENDLESS PARADE OF OVERCAST DAYS.

2) WILL FOG BECOME AN ISSUE ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST A
PATCHY FOG MENTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HERE) BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS WELL (NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST)? WHILE TYPICAL FOG
MODELING TOOLS SUCH AS FROM THE SREF/NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS
SUGGESTS FOG COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...THIS FORECASTER WONDERS HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS "REAL" AND HOW MUCH IS POTENTIALLY FALSE BASED ON
AN OVER-ZEALOUS MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE
TO SNOW COVER INFLUENCES. NOT TO MENTION...NIGHT-TIME LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SURFACE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THESE NIGHTS...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT A VERY FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MORE THAN LIGHT FOG ISSUES AROUND HERE.

3) ARE PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH ENOUGH (CURRENTLY ONLY
20-30 PERCENT)...AND IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR...WILL IT TAKE THE FORM
OF RAIN AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED/EXPECTED...OR POSSIBLY TRY TO FALL
AS AT LEAST BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AS SOME MODEL TEMP FIELDS
WOULD SUGGEST?

4) COULD MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY END UP BEING AT
LEAST 10 MPH WINDIER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST?
THIS ONE IS PROBABLY A DECENT BET...AS THE CURRENT DEFAULT MULTI-
MODEL BLEND MAX SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY
UNDERDONE.

5) COULD CURRENTLY "DRY" FORECAST PERIODS SUCH AS TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT END UP NEEDING AT LEAST LOW-END POPS FOR "NUISANCE"
PRECIPITATION?

6) LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HOW ABOUT CHRISTMAS DAY WEATHER? ALTHOUGH
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ADVERTISES A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND/OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE DEFAULT
MULTI- MODEL BLEND THAT CENTRAL REGION NWS OFFICES USE TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD)...THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF CLEARLY HOLDS OFF ANY PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AND EVEN THEN THERE ARE STILL TONS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LIGHT/MINOR PRECIP POTENTIAL OR
POSSIBLY A MORE IMPACTFUL ONE.

OF COURSE THESE PRECEDING 6 POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE JUST A
SAMPLING OF THE VARIOUS ISSUES THAT NEED SORTED OUT DURING THIS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AT LEAST WE CAN SAY WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
THAT NO "MAJOR" WEATHER SYSTEMS SHOULD IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY-
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS ON MOST DAYS GENERALLY
AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MID-30S AND MID-40S WITH ONLY LIMITED
EXCEPTIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WEATHER ELEMENTS
PRESENTLY-ELIGIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID).

GETTING INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR
BLOCKS...

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE GOING DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN INTACT...BUT WITH VARIOUS
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AGREEING THAT AT LEAST ONE
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MAINLY SAT NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AT
LEAST PASSING BY NEAR THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE VERY FIRST ISSUE
RIGHT AWAY SATURDAY MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AMOUNTS TO MUCH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...ITS
JUST A TOUGH CALL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LARGER SCALE STRATUS FIELD
TRENDS...BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER OPTED
TO MAINTAIN A PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DOWN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND
SURFACE SATURDAY...WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS BREEZES AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM A
SOUTHWEST-TO- WESTERLY DIRECTION. OF COURSE...THIS SHOULD IN
THEORY RESULT IN A NICE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS VERSUS THESE
PRECEDING SEVERAL DAYS...BUT EVEN AT THIS CLOSE TIME RANGE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SKY COVER GIVEN JUST HOW STUBBORN
STRATUS HAS HELD LATELY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MORE PREVALENT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...THE PRIMARY BATCH OF
STRATUS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE
SHOVING/DEPARTING EASTWARD...AND THUS FOR NOW WILL ASSUME AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ATTAINED ACROSS THE CWA. THUS FOR
RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS...MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
HERE (AND DISREGARDING THE NAM AND ITS USELESS/OVERDONE SNOW-COVER
SCHEME IN WESTERN ZONES)...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 40S
AND FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS PHILLIPS/ROOKS RIGHT AROUND 50.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...NUDGED DOWN LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY...CALLING FOR
LOW-MID 20S MOST AREAS. AS OUTLINED IN "POINT NUMBER 2"
ABOVE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE FEEL THAT
THE "ONE NIGHT AT A TIME" APPROACH IS PROBABLY BEST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT THE DAYTIME PERIOD VOID OF
PRECIP MENTION BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS IF ANYTHING...AT
LEAST LIGHT/BRIEF MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO BE TRENDING UP
A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESPONSIBLE FEATURE HERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES-CANADA BORDER AND
STRENGTHENS AS IT DOES SO AS UPPER JET ENERGY PUNCHES IN BEHIND
IT. DOWN LOW...THE RESULT WILL BE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
GENERALLY ALONG A MONTANA-IOWA TRACK...AND DRAGGING AT LEAST A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WITH FAIRLY STEADY WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...FELT THAT SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO COLD ON LOWS...AND AS A RESULT KEPT THE ENTIRE CWA FROM
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE 32-26 RANGE. THANKFULLY...THIS SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...AND WITH WARM TEMPS
ALOFT THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR PLAIN
LIQUID RAIN SHOWERS...UNLESS OF COURSE LATER MODEL RUNS TREND IN
COLDER AIR FASTER. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THIS...AS
POPS ARE STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHEST IN EAST.
TEMP-WISE...SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING THE MILDEST OF THE
NEXT 7...AND AGAIN MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS HERE WITH MAINLY
MID-UPPER 40S AND MAYBE SOME 50S SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
ORGANIZING/DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A PARENT
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER. AS
MENTIONED IN "POINT 4" ABOVE...THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE THE CWA IN A
RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME. THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALSO
REMAIN PRONE TO AT LEAST LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND
LOW POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THESE 24 HOURS MAINLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN DEEP TROUGH AXIS STARTS
MOVING OFF FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES-GULF COAST...BUT WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST ONE PESKY AREA OF
FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP TO BRUSH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PER
THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. FOR NOW THOUGH...A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES HERE BUT IT COULD BE RATHER WINDY FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-WED NIGHT...FOR BEING SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENTLY-DRY FORECAST IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
DECENT HERE AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A
PERIOD OF LARGER-SCALE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING EARLY-WEEK TROUGH AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
INVADING THE WESTERN CONUS.

CHRISTMAS DAY...AS COVERED IN "POINT 6" ABOVE...DON/T GET TOO
CAUGHT UP IN THE 20-30 PERCENT SNOW AND OR SNOW/RAIN CHANCES YET.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
PREDICTABLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT...MEANING THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE AREA COULD VERY WELL GET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET
PRECIP-FREE. STAY TUNED FOR SOME POSSIBLE/LIKELY CHANGES AND/OR
DELAYS TO PRECIP TIMING HERE. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS ARE VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMED SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...WHICH IS OF COURSE RIGHT ON PAR WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KEAR BY 15Z...AND AT KGRI BY
03Z.

STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 05Z AND THIS IS A TREND
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. AN MVFR CEILING IS CURRENTLY IN EXISTENCE AT BOTH TAF
SITES...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN IFR CEILING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE REALIZED
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
5-8KTS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY OBSERVE FOG TONIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 190946
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS INTO MID
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER IN
THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS. LOW CEILINGS
MAY RETURN AGAIN THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 190946
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS INTO MID
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER IN
THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS. LOW CEILINGS
MAY RETURN AGAIN THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 190946
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS INTO MID
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER IN
THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS. LOW CEILINGS
MAY RETURN AGAIN THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 190946
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

DRY BUT CLOUDY APPEARS TO BE THE THEME FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
SOUNDING FROM 00Z LAST EVENING AT OAX HAD A SATURATED CLOUD LAYER
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET THICK...FROM 1500 FEET UP TO 6500 FEET.
SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED IN EASTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHT GRADIENT AT 850MB WAS LOOSE WITH WEAK FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB...THEREFORE ADVECTING THE THICK
STRATUS LAYER DOESNT SEEM LIKELY ANYTIME SOON. MODEL CLOUD COVER
FROM SHORT TERM MODELS ALSO FAVOR KEEPING THE OVERCAST INTO
SATURDAY.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
IF THERE IS EROSION OR CLOUD ADVECTION IN THOSE AREAS...YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING DURING THE DAY AND COOLING AT
NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE SOME HINT OF THIS POSSIBILITY
BUT GENERALLY THINK CLOUDS WILL KEEP DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS LIMITED.

REGARDING THE CHANCES FOR FOG...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
ONE LACKING INGREDIENT FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS VERTICAL
MOTION TO GENERATE THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS LIFTING
MECHANISM...SO UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR MORE VERTICAL WE THINK
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW FOR THAT. LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR AS CLOUDS
LOWER...BUT DENSE FOG DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ALWAYS HAVE SOME
SPREAD AT THIS TIME FRAME OF 72+ HOURS...BUT GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS ARE RATHER
SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT DEEPENS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO IOWA...CUTTING OFF AND DIGGING WHILE
THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BUILDS. SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY EVENING INTO IOWA BY 18Z
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY A HEAVY PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...IT DOES
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE WARM SECTOR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AND WARMTH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. COLUMN UP TO 850 MB WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN COOLS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THESE SYSTEMS TYPICALLY BRING STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NO EXCEPTION. 850
WINDS ON ECMWF AND GFS ARE 50 KNOTS LATE MONDAY...WITH GFS
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 850 WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS AT 100
PERCENT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A QUIETER RIDGE PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH SOME
MODELS BRINGING ENERGY FROM A WESTERN US LONGWAVE INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT SOME DO NOT. SMALL POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

STILL EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS INTO MID
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER IN
THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS. LOW CEILINGS
MAY RETURN AGAIN THEN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 190928
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA AND MOST OF KANSAS. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO A QUARTER MILE CONTINUES FROM NEAR
HAYES CENTER THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW AND BASSETT. FURTHER
EAST WITHIN THE STRATUS...PATCHY FOG WITH CURRENT VSBYS FROM 2-5SM.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 29 AT ONL TO 12 AT
VTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG
FURTHER EAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR EAST OF A
BROKEN BOW THROUGH ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS TO NEAR 3C FROM VTN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH OGA AND IML SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40. WITH LIGHT WINDS REMAINING SOUTH AND STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT ONL AND BARTLETT...HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S.
CURRENT FORECAST TO BE NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE
ALL AREAS DUE TO EXISTING SNOW COVER EFFECTS.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. EXPECTING AN INCREASING IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AS AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. SUBSTANTIAL
ONSHORE MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. LOWS TO FALL  INTO THE MID
TEENS...WITH COLDER LOWS NEAR 10 ABOVE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR SFC HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE FOG AND/OR STRATUS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE RESULT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH TEENS ANTICIPATED
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN FULLY DECOUPLE /RIVER VALLEYS/...BUT
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
5C ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SHOWN FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE REGION...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE
CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE STRONGER JET SUPPORT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WEST. THUS THERES A DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL RESIDE...THE GFS FAVORS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND CUSTER
COUNTIES...THE EURO IS WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO/WYOMING. FOR THIS...DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ON POPS
JUST YET...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE WORDING. IF
PRECIP OCCURS THERMO PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO MONDAY AS THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD PUSH OF SUB 0C H85
AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE EC IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR. LIGHT QPF MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR EAST AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND ADDITIONAL UL ENERGY DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL
SNOW AT THIS POINT.

THERE REMAINS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK THEN PROCEED TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ATOP THE SANDHILLS ON CHRISTMAS.  THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE A BIT ON THE PROJECTED SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR CHRISTMAS AND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z AT KLBF. THE MODELS SHOW A
SLUG OF DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA. THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOW THE FOG EXITING KLBF AROUND 15Z. THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER.
THIS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LIFR THROUGH 10Z BUT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE 10Z-14Z...SOONER THAN FORECAST.

VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY EXCEPT ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM KANW-KLBF WHERE MVFR/LOCAL LIFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC









000
FXUS63 KLBF 190928
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA AND MOST OF KANSAS. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO A QUARTER MILE CONTINUES FROM NEAR
HAYES CENTER THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW AND BASSETT. FURTHER
EAST WITHIN THE STRATUS...PATCHY FOG WITH CURRENT VSBYS FROM 2-5SM.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 29 AT ONL TO 12 AT
VTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG
FURTHER EAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR EAST OF A
BROKEN BOW THROUGH ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS TO NEAR 3C FROM VTN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH OGA AND IML SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40. WITH LIGHT WINDS REMAINING SOUTH AND STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT ONL AND BARTLETT...HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S.
CURRENT FORECAST TO BE NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE
ALL AREAS DUE TO EXISTING SNOW COVER EFFECTS.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. EXPECTING AN INCREASING IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AS AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. SUBSTANTIAL
ONSHORE MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. LOWS TO FALL  INTO THE MID
TEENS...WITH COLDER LOWS NEAR 10 ABOVE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR SFC HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE FOG AND/OR STRATUS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE RESULT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH TEENS ANTICIPATED
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN FULLY DECOUPLE /RIVER VALLEYS/...BUT
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
5C ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SHOWN FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE REGION...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE
CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE STRONGER JET SUPPORT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WEST. THUS THERES A DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL RESIDE...THE GFS FAVORS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND CUSTER
COUNTIES...THE EURO IS WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO/WYOMING. FOR THIS...DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ON POPS
JUST YET...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE WORDING. IF
PRECIP OCCURS THERMO PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO MONDAY AS THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD PUSH OF SUB 0C H85
AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE EC IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR. LIGHT QPF MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR EAST AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND ADDITIONAL UL ENERGY DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL
SNOW AT THIS POINT.

THERE REMAINS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK THEN PROCEED TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ATOP THE SANDHILLS ON CHRISTMAS.  THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE A BIT ON THE PROJECTED SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR CHRISTMAS AND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z AT KLBF. THE MODELS SHOW A
SLUG OF DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA. THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOW THE FOG EXITING KLBF AROUND 15Z. THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER.
THIS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LIFR THROUGH 10Z BUT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE 10Z-14Z...SOONER THAN FORECAST.

VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY EXCEPT ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM KANW-KLBF WHERE MVFR/LOCAL LIFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC









000
FXUS63 KLBF 190928
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA AND MOST OF KANSAS. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO A QUARTER MILE CONTINUES FROM NEAR
HAYES CENTER THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW AND BASSETT. FURTHER
EAST WITHIN THE STRATUS...PATCHY FOG WITH CURRENT VSBYS FROM 2-5SM.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 29 AT ONL TO 12 AT
VTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG
FURTHER EAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR EAST OF A
BROKEN BOW THROUGH ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS TO NEAR 3C FROM VTN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH OGA AND IML SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40. WITH LIGHT WINDS REMAINING SOUTH AND STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT ONL AND BARTLETT...HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S.
CURRENT FORECAST TO BE NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE
ALL AREAS DUE TO EXISTING SNOW COVER EFFECTS.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. EXPECTING AN INCREASING IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AS AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. SUBSTANTIAL
ONSHORE MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. LOWS TO FALL  INTO THE MID
TEENS...WITH COLDER LOWS NEAR 10 ABOVE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR SFC HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE FOG AND/OR STRATUS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE RESULT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH TEENS ANTICIPATED
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN FULLY DECOUPLE /RIVER VALLEYS/...BUT
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
5C ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SHOWN FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE REGION...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE
CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE STRONGER JET SUPPORT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WEST. THUS THERES A DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL RESIDE...THE GFS FAVORS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND CUSTER
COUNTIES...THE EURO IS WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO/WYOMING. FOR THIS...DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ON POPS
JUST YET...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE WORDING. IF
PRECIP OCCURS THERMO PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO MONDAY AS THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD PUSH OF SUB 0C H85
AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE EC IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR. LIGHT QPF MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR EAST AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND ADDITIONAL UL ENERGY DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL
SNOW AT THIS POINT.

THERE REMAINS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK THEN PROCEED TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ATOP THE SANDHILLS ON CHRISTMAS.  THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE A BIT ON THE PROJECTED SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR CHRISTMAS AND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z AT KLBF. THE MODELS SHOW A
SLUG OF DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA. THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOW THE FOG EXITING KLBF AROUND 15Z. THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER.
THIS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LIFR THROUGH 10Z BUT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE 10Z-14Z...SOONER THAN FORECAST.

VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY EXCEPT ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM KANW-KLBF WHERE MVFR/LOCAL LIFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC









000
FXUS63 KLBF 190928
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA AND MOST OF KANSAS. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO A QUARTER MILE CONTINUES FROM NEAR
HAYES CENTER THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW AND BASSETT. FURTHER
EAST WITHIN THE STRATUS...PATCHY FOG WITH CURRENT VSBYS FROM 2-5SM.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA RANGING FROM 29 AT ONL TO 12 AT
VTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS WITH PATCHY FOG
FURTHER EAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR EAST OF A
BROKEN BOW THROUGH ONEILL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS TO NEAR 3C FROM VTN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH OGA AND IML SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40. WITH LIGHT WINDS REMAINING SOUTH AND STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT ONL AND BARTLETT...HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOWER 30S.
CURRENT FORECAST TO BE NEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE
ALL AREAS DUE TO EXISTING SNOW COVER EFFECTS.

FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. EXPECTING AN INCREASING IN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AS AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. SUBSTANTIAL
ONSHORE MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
APPROACH OF A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. LOWS TO FALL  INTO THE MID
TEENS...WITH COLDER LOWS NEAR 10 ABOVE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING AND A WEAK PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. H85 TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 0C...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE FOR SFC HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE FOG AND/OR STRATUS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A
WEAK WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN
NEBRASKA...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING THE BL SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE RESULT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH TEENS ANTICIPATED
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN FULLY DECOUPLE /RIVER VALLEYS/...BUT
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AND ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR
5C ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SHOWN FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE REGION...BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE
CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE STRONGER JET SUPPORT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY WEST. THUS THERES A DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL RESIDE...THE GFS FAVORS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LINCOLN AND CUSTER
COUNTIES...THE EURO IS WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO/WYOMING. FOR THIS...DIDN/T GET TOO CARRIED AWAY ON POPS
JUST YET...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE WORDING. IF
PRECIP OCCURS THERMO PROFILES INITIALLY FAVOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW GOING...ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO MONDAY AS THE GFS INDICATES A GOOD PUSH OF SUB 0C H85
AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE EC IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD AIR. LIGHT QPF MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR EAST AS
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY AND ADDITIONAL UL ENERGY DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL
SNOW AT THIS POINT.

THERE REMAINS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-WEEK THEN PROCEED TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY EMERGE ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS ALONG/BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ATOP THE SANDHILLS ON CHRISTMAS.  THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE A BIT ON THE PROJECTED SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR CHRISTMAS AND LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LIFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z AT KLBF. THE MODELS SHOW A
SLUG OF DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA. THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOW THE FOG EXITING KLBF AROUND 15Z. THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER.
THIS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LIFR THROUGH 10Z BUT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE 10Z-14Z...SOONER THAN FORECAST.

VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY EXCEPT ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM KANW-KLBF WHERE MVFR/LOCAL LIFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC









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