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000
FXUS63 KLBF 242325 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
FAIRLY LOW MINIMUMS TONIGHT AND THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE...AS CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELIEVE THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS ON
TRACK WITH HAVING LOWS DROPPING BELOW GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL MODIFICATIONS TO THE LOWS...BUT EXPECTING THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES UP OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND PINE RIDGE WHERE LOW
TO MID 30S ARE LOOKING PROBABLE. ALSO...RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER
FAVORABLE COLD LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW 40
DEGREES TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ABUNDANT DRY AIR THROUGH THE LAYER AND WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE TRAJECTORY OF CIRRUS CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL
SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SATURDAY. THE 24.12Z
NAM AND THE 24.00Z ECMWF SHOW THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH STICKING AROUND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND ALSO SLIGHTLY SHUNTING SOME OF THE WARMER AIR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE 24.00Z GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND WARMS THINGS UP A BIT MORE. ALSO...DESPITE THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE AND THE WARM AIR ALOFT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING QUITE MINIMAL...TO ONLY 850MB.  THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE MORE APPARENT LOOKING AT STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...WHICH VARY IN HIGHS FROM 75 TO 82 DEGREES AT KLBF. NOT
QUITE BUYING THE REAL COOLER NUMBERS...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPACT OF TEMPERATURES COOLING FROM THE HIGH SO NUDGED HIGHS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID...HIGHS WILL STILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
COOLDOWN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY...

CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY. HAVE EXPANDED LOWER 80 HIGHS
ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND MIX DOWN H85 TEMPS AROUND
20C TO THE SURFACE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NWRN FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT AND WRN WY. THIS
WILL DRIVE A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. A WEAK FGEN BAND MAINLY LOCATED IN
THE H8 THROUGH H6 LAYER WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. GIVEN THAT MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY
LOCATED IN THIS LAYER...AND FAIRLY DRY ABOVE AND BELOW...COVERAGE
AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. FAVOR THE NAM AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ON LOCATION...WHICH FAVORS UP TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE SERN
HALF OF FA THROUGH 18Z...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE AFTN. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 KEPT VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS TIMING OF FRONT AND CAA REMAINS SIMILAR. H85 TEMPS OF
4C-9C ON TUESDAY SUGGEST SIMILAR HIGHS. A BRIEF WARMUP WEDNESDAY
WILL H85 TEMPS OF 10C-16C AND HIGHS 65-70.

CONFIDENT IS BELOW AVERAGE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
/DAY6/AND FRIDAY /DAY7/. THE GFS IS THE COOLER MODEL AND THE
ECMWF WARMER. THIS WAS OPPOSITE LAST EVENINGS RUNS. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IN
JUXTAPOSITION TO AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INDICATES SOME COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY FORECAST FROM UPPER 50S NCTRL TO LOWER/MID 60S
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM MID 50S EAST TO NEAR 60 WEST.
ALTHOUGH A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED...DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER






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000
FXUS63 KGID 242319
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CIRRUS HAVE BEEN THINNING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY STARTING TO
WARM UP. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE FOG TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...WARM ADVECTION...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH WINDS
THE TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

WE KICK OFF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL
BE WEST OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YET AHEAD OF A BROAD
TROUGH...APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN TO GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME FOG. I INCREASED DEW POINTS FROM
NEAR 50 TO THE MID 50S. THE SREF INDICATES A DECENT SHOT AT SOME FOG
WITH A LIKELY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SEEMS MORE
FAVORED IN OUR WEST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH I PUT FOG EVERYWHERE...SINCE
THE LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND IN OUR EAST MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
THOROUGHLY MIX THE FOG. I ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THE HIGHER
CHANCE OF STRATUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ANTICIPATED FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

IT SHOULD BE YET ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A BIG CAVEAT WILL BE HOW MUCH STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AND
WILL THIS AFFECT OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. I WENT A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND KEPT THEM A BIT COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE AND AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY ENTERS THE
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WE COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
RAIN/SPRINKLES. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
WITH THE QUICKER SPEED OF THE WAVE...OUR CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT HIGH...AND IF WE DO GET RAIN...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A LOT. I
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS INSTABILITY LOOKS NEGLIGIBLE.

FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND PRONOUNCED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS ALL WE HAVE IN OUR FORECAST AS
FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE GFS INDICATES THAT WE COULD GET A
QUICK MOVING PERTURBATION THAT MIGHT KICK UP A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...EAST OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. FOR NOW...I
WILL KEEP THIS DRY AS THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY
FOR THIS PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE RIDGE PASSING TO THE EAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT THROUGH AND WILL GIVE US NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...YET STILL SEASONABLY WARM...MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. I KICKED UP THE BREEZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...FAY



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KOAX 242256
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
556 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUIET AND ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
AN UPPER RIDGE NOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DAYS OF VERY MILD TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70-80 ON SATURDAY AND 75 TO 83 ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A VERY
SUBTLE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS
WELL. NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR THUS WILL GO DRY FOR NOW...
BUT WILL MONITOR IN LATER MODEL TRENDS.

THE TROUGH THAT IS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO AREA...THAT
WILL RESULT IN A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOSTLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COOLER AIR ON TAP BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WE DO GET A BRIEF RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SMALL RECOVERY AND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...THEN TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S FOR THURSDAY. THEN A SLIGHTLY COOLER SURGE FOR
HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S BUT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 242036
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
336 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
FAIRLY LOW MINIMUMS TONIGHT AND THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE...AS CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELIEVE THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS ON
TRACK WITH HAVING LOWS DROPPING BELOW GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL MODIFICATIONS TO THE LOWS...BUT EXPECTING THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES UP OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND PINE RIDGE WHERE LOW
TO MID 30S ARE LOOKING PROBABLE. ALSO...RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER
FAVORABLE COLD LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW 40
DEGREES TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ABUNDANT DRY AIR THROUGH THE LAYER AND WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE TRAJECTORY OF CIRRUS CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL
SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SATURDAY. THE 24.12Z
NAM AND THE 24.00Z ECMWF SHOW THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH STICKING AROUND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND ALSO SLIGHTLY SHUNTING SOME OF THE WARMER AIR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE 24.00Z GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND WARMS THINGS UP A BIT MORE. ALSO...DESPITE THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE AND THE WARM AIR ALOFT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING QUITE MINIMAL...TO ONLY 850MB.  THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE MORE APPARENT LOOKING AT STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...WHICH VARY IN HIGHS FROM 75 TO 82 DEGREES AT KLBF. NOT
QUITE BUYING THE REAL COOLER NUMBERS...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPACT OF TEMPERATURES COOLING FROM THE HIGH SO NUDGED HIGHS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID...HIGHS WILL STILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
COOLDOWN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY...

CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY. HAVE EXPANDED LOWER 80 HIGHS
ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND MIX DOWN H85 TEMPS AROUND
20C TO THE SURFACE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NWRN FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT AND WRN WY. THIS
WILL DRIVE A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. A WEAK FGEN BAND MAINLY LOCATED IN
THE H8 THROUGH H6 LAYER WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. GIVEN THAT MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY
LOCATED IN THIS LAYER...AND FAIRLY DRY ABOVE AND BELOW...COVERAGE
AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. FAVOR THE NAM AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ON LOCATION...WHICH FAVORS UP TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE SERN
HALF OF FA THROUGH 18Z...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE AFTN. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 KEPT VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS TIMING OF FRONT AND CAA REMAINS SIMILAR. H85 TEMPS OF
4C-9C ON TUESDAY SUGGEST SIMILAR HIGHS. A BRIEF WARMUP WEDNESDAY
WILL H85 TEMPS OF 10C-16C AND HIGHS 65-70.


CONFIDENT IS BELOW AVERAGE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
/DAY6/AND FRIDAY /DAY7/. THE GFS IS THE COOLER MODEL AND THE
ECMWF WARMER. THIS WAS OPPOSITE LAST EVENINGS RUNS. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IN
JUXTAPOSITION TO AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INDICATES SOME COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY FORECAST FROM UPPER 50S NCTRL TO LOWER/MID 60S
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM MID 50S EAST TO NEAR 60 WEST.
ALTHOUGH A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED...DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NEBRASKA. BY MID AFTERNOON TODAY...DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE OCCURRING BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT SO EXPECTING WINDS TO STAY BELOW 10KTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THE HIGH THEN DRIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY SO LOOKING FOR
WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KGID 242035
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CIRRUS HAVE BEEN THINNING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY STARTING TO
WARM UP. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE FOG TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...WARM ADVECTION...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH WINDS
THE TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

WE KICK OFF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL
BE WEST OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YET AHEAD OF A BROAD
TROUGH...APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN TO GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME FOG. I INCREASED DEW POINTS FROM
NEAR 50 TO THE MID 50S. THE SREF INDICATES A DECENT SHOT AT SOME FOG
WITH A LIKELY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SEEMS MORE
FAVORED IN OUR WEST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH I PUT FOG EVERYWHERE...SINCE
THE LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND IN OUR EAST MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
THOROUGHLY MIX THE FOG. I ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THE HIGHER
CHANCE OF STRATUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ANTICIPATED FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

IT SHOULD BE YET ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A BIG CAVEAT WILL BE HOW MUCH STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AND
WILL THIS AFFECT OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES. I WENT A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND KEPT THEM A BIT COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE AND AS THE TROUGH QUICKLY ENTERS THE
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WE COULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
RAIN/SPRINKLES. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND
WITH THE QUICKER SPEED OF THE WAVE...OUR CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT HIGH...AND IF WE DO GET RAIN...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE A LOT. I
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS INSTABILITY LOOKS NEGLIGIBLE.

FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND PRONOUNCED RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS ALL WE HAVE IN OUR FORECAST AS
FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE GFS INDICATES THAT WE COULD GET A
QUICK MOVING PERTURBATION THAT MIGHT KICK UP A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...EAST OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE. FOR NOW...I
WILL KEEP THIS DRY AS THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY
FOR THIS PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE RIDGE PASSING TO THE EAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT THROUGH AND WILL GIVE US NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...YET STILL SEASONABLY WARM...MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. I KICKED UP THE BREEZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH
A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CIRRUS IS STARTING TO BREAK UP AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND
WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BUT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KOAX 241954
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUIET AND ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
AN UPPER RIDGE NOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DAYS OF VERY MILD TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70-80 ON SATURDAY AND 75 TO 83 ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A VERY
SUBTLE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS
WELL. NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR THUS WILL GO DRY FOR NOW...
BUT WILL MONITOR IN LATER MODEL TRENDS.

THE TROUGH THAT IS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO AREA...THAT
WILL RESULT IN A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOSTLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COOLER AIR ON TAP BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WE DO GET A BRIEF RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SMALL RECOVERY AND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...THEN TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S FOR THURSDAY. THEN A SLIGHTLY COOLER SURGE FOR
HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S BUT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH WINDS
TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. BY THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BY 13-15Z WILL SWITCH FROM THE NORTHEAST AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 241954
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUIET AND ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
AN UPPER RIDGE NOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DAYS OF VERY MILD TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70-80 ON SATURDAY AND 75 TO 83 ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A VERY
SUBTLE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS
WELL. NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR THUS WILL GO DRY FOR NOW...
BUT WILL MONITOR IN LATER MODEL TRENDS.

THE TROUGH THAT IS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO AREA...THAT
WILL RESULT IN A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOSTLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COOLER AIR ON TAP BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WE DO GET A BRIEF RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SMALL RECOVERY AND HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...THEN TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S FOR THURSDAY. THEN A SLIGHTLY COOLER SURGE FOR
HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S BUT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH WINDS
TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. BY THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BY 13-15Z WILL SWITCH FROM THE NORTHEAST AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 241818
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
118 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM...FOG AND
STRATUS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING REMAIN
SECONDARY CONCERNS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS SPILLING SE TOWARD/ACROSS ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION. ALTHOUGH
IT HAD THINNED AS IT MOVED OVER THE FA THROUGH 07Z...THICKNESS OF
IT UPSTREAM INDICATES AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
IMPACTING HIGHS A BIT...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY AND MAINLY NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD REMAIN THICKEST.
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG ALSO REMAINS A THREAT EARLY MOST AREAS...MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED OVER WRN IA WHERE IT HAD MOVED
INTO SW IA AFT 06Z. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY 05Z HRRR...AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE RAP. HOWEVER...THE LOWER LEVEL RH WAS FORECAST TO
SHIFT/ERODE EWD THROUGH THIS MORNING PER THOSE MODELS...PROBABLY
LIMITING ANY IMPACT TO MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FAR SW IA THIS MORNING AND ADJUST ACCORDING DEPENDING ON
WHETHER OR NOT IT SPREADS OR IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY. THE
PESSIMISTIC 00Z NAM...REGARDING ITS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING MUCH OF THE FA...WAS GENERALLY
DISREGARDED..ALTHOUGH IT WAS NOTED THAT STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING W
INTO SERN NEBR AT 08Z. BECAUSE OF WEAK MIXING AND THICKER CIRRUS
THREAT...LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT CNTRL/NRN ZONES.

WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA TODAY STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKLY INTO ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED LESS CI AND MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG GIVEN ERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS...AND LOWS LIKELY TO START
OUT COLDER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY NOT THAT MUCH COOLER DUE TO PROBABLY NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...KEPT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
BECAUSE OF THE COOLER START AND ABSENT STRONG MIXING.

00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH DID NOT MENTION FOG YET...DID INCREASE
SKY COVER SUNDAY MORNING CNTRL/NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD LINGER THE
LONGEST. AIRMASS RECOVERS ANY COOLING THROUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERE
OBSERVED SATURDAY. HOWEVER....BESIDES THE INCREASED LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL
...GFS INDICATED HIGHER CLOUDS RETURNING AS WELL AND MIXING DUE
TO WINDS COULD POSSIBLY BE LIMITED TO FAR SRN ZONES. THUS WITH THE CLOUD
AND POSSIBLY WEAK MIXING POTENTIAL NRN ZONES...KEPT MAX TEMPS IN
LOWER 70S THERE WITH OTHER READINGS CLOSE TO THOSE EXPECTED TO
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED IN FORECAST MONDAY NRN AREAS
AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...PARTIALLY TO RETAIN FORECAST
CONTINUITY...AS TROUGH CROSS PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF PER 00Z
GFS/ECMWF WAS LIMITED MONDAY AND MOSTLY ABSENT MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED MONDAY AFTN BEHIND FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE A TOUCH FASTER INTO SERN ZONES SO HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER MOST AREAS THAN PRIOR FORECAST.

WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW DRY WITH LTL/NO FORCING...ANY PRECIP
MENTION FOR TUESDAY WAS DROPPED...AND A CONTINUED COOL-DOWN SHOULD
PERSIST.

FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH MODEST WARM
ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH MODEL/PREV FORECAST BLEND ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT
WARM UP OVER TUESDAY...TRENDS WOULD INDICATE NUDGING UPWARD MORE
IF WARM ADVCTN CLOUDS APPEAR THEY WILL BE LIMITED.

EARLIER GFS LEAD THE CHARGE FOR A LATE WEEK COOL-DOWN AS TROUGH
SHARPENED TO OUR EAST. ECMWF FOLLOWED SUIT YDA AND CONTINUED THE
TREND WITH 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...GFS HAS NOW FLIPPED TO A WARMER
PATTERN THU/FRI. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF
THE TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND SWITCH WINDS
TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. BY THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BY 13-15Z WILL SWITCH FROM THE NORTHEAST AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 241727
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA EWD INTO
NORTHERN ALBERTA...AND NORTHERN MANITOBA. A NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED SE FROM THE MANITOBA DISTURBANCE INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDED FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WV IMAGERY OVERNIGHT HAS INDICATED A NICE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EWD TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS GAVE A BOOST
TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND HAS INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WERE NOTED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. VISBYS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELDS...THERE IS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. THE THREAT FOR FOG WILL
BE A MINOR ONE COMPARED TO THE WIDESPREAD FOG FROM 24 HRS AGO
THANKS TO THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS PRESENT ATTM. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 40 AT VALENTINE TO
55 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR
TODAY...THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO HIGHS TDY AS THE MAV NUMBERS ARE WARMER THAN THE MET
NUMBERS. DECIDED TO TREND HIGHS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET
GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPECTED HIGH CLOUD COVER TDY. THIS SEEMED TO
AGREE BETTER WITH FCST SOUNDING HIGHS WHICH RANGED FROM THE UPPER
70S IN THE NORTH...TO LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT...RIDGING
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...FORCING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST...TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S FOR NORTH PLATTE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN...WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL MIXING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY...WHERE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WARMER LOWER 80S ARE FORECASTED...AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...HELPING TO MIX WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.

A WARM SIGNAL IS SEEN FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE WARMED HIGHS 2 TO 4
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE HWY 83 CORRIDOR. MODELS AGREE
THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING...WITH
WESTERLY WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. TYPICALLY THIS IS A WARM SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE AIR
ALOFT /3000 TO 7000 FEET AGL/ IS WARM AND EASILY MIXED TO THE
SURFACE.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A DECENT FGEN BAND ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHILE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IS LIMITED...EXPECTING THAT AT LEAST
A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED 30 POPS...AS
THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD PLACE TO BE GIVEN THE DECENT LIFT BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE.

AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THE REST OF THE
WEEKS WEATHER. NOW THE GFS IS THE WARMER MODEL AND THE ECMWF COLDER.
THIS WAS OPPOSITE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF THE WARMER SOLUTION.
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF IS A MUCH STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING BEHIND A POTENT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME COLD AIR TO
DIVE ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEEKS END. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST SEEM
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NEBRASKA. BY MID AFTERNOON TODAY...DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE OCCURRING BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT SO EXPECTING WINDS TO STAY BELOW 10KTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THE HIGH THEN DRIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY SO LOOKING FOR
WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KGID 241727
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOST IMPORTANTLY FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR BE NEARLY THE ISSUE THAT IT WAS YESTERDAY
MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA IS ONLY EXPERIENCING A GENERIC LIGHT
FOG/HAZE. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST LIMITED PORTIONS OF THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY IN KS) ARE LIKELY SEEING LOCALIZED HEAVIER FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE OR LESS...AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. PLENTY MORE ON THE FOG SITUATION BELOW...

MOVING BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG CONCERNS (OR LACK THEREOF)...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN A RATHER TRANQUIL AND DRY 24 HOURS...WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP. TEMP-WISE TODAY...THOUGH NOT
LOOKING AT THREATENING ANY DAILY RECORDS AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE
SITES GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS...AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE GENERALLY AIMED
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...KICKING OFF A
STRETCH OF 3 NOTABLY MILD DAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

IF THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTH MENTIONING TODAY IT
IS MARGINAL FIRE DANGER PRIMARILY FOR FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND THIS FIRE WEATHER ANGLE IS COVERED IN MORE DETAIL IN A
SEPARATE SECTION BELOW.

TURNING BACK TO THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 830Z/330 AM...AS MENTIONED
AT THE TOP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN
LIGHT FOG/HAZE...WITH THE ONLY TWO AUTOMATED AIRPORT SITES THAT
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FLIRTING WITH 1-MILE-OR-LESS VISIBILITIES
BEING SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG KS. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN BOTH MODELS AND ALSO
FORECASTER OPINION ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS MORNING COULD COME
ANYTHING CLOSE TO RESEMBLING THE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG OF YESTERDAY MORNING...AND THE SHORT ANSWER IS THAT BOTH
IMPRESSIONS WERE CORRECT TO SOME DEGREE. ON ONE HAND...THE LONG-
LASTING STRATUS YESTERDAY LEFT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND...WHICH OFTEN IS A PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES. IN FACT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KS HAVE SEEN SOME AT-LEAST-
PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT PER GROUND TRUTH REPORTS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED KS AIRPORT OBS. ON THE OTHER HAND THOUGH...THIS
MORNING/S SITUATION FEATURES A VERY DIFFERENT LOW-LEVEL SYNOPTIC
SETUP THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE IS LARGELY FAR MORE
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION. WHEREAS THURSDAY
MORNING FEATURED NEAR-CALM SURFACE BREEZES AND IN FACT VERY LIGHT
WIND THROUGHOUT THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS MORNING THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BREEZES OF AT LEAST 4-8 MPH PROVIDING AT LEAST WEAK MIXING. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONG THAN LAST NIGHT AND ARE GRADUALLY VEERING
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY...A DIRECTION THAT RARELY SUPPORTS
MAJOR FOG ISSUES FOR THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS LARGE OF A
FACTOR AS THE AFOREMENTIONED...FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LIKELY ALSO
BEEN HELD BACK SOMEWHAT BY RATHER THIN BUT NONETHELESS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BATCHES OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PER 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS FOR THE SURFACE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING...A FAIRLY SUBTLE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SERVING AS LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT
BETWEEN PREVAILING SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN CENTRAL NEB/KS AND MORE
WESTERLY BREEZES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES. IN THE BIGGER
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THE CWA IS UNDER PRONOUNCED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BEING DIRECTED BETWEEN AN EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/MEXICO
THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

FINALLY GETTING TO THE MEAT OF THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST
DISCUSSION...

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL OBVIOUSLY BE KEEPING AN EYE ON FOG
TRENDS TO MAKE SURE THINGS DON/T TAKE AN UNEXPECTED TURN FOR THE
WORSE...BUT OTHER THAN PORTIONS OF KS ZONES AND MAYBE SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VISIBILITIES NO WORSE THAN 1-2 MILES.

FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG: WARM...DRY
AND GENERALLY A MIX OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH MAYBE A FEW PERIODS OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AS
BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUE SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SMALL-
SCALE DISTURBANCES EMANATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA...BREEZES ACROSS THE CWA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM MORE SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...AND
EVEN NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
1/2 OF THE LOCAL AREA. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...WITH PERHAPS SOME ENHANCED
GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES. TEMP-WISE...ALTHOUGH ANY
THICKER CIRRUS BATCHES COULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF FULL
POTENTIAL...AIMED HIGHS PRETTY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BUT RAISED A FEW DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE
NORTH. THE NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MAINLY UPPER 70S NORTHEAST
TO LOW-MID 80S SOUTH AND WEST...WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING
GENERALLY ONLY UP TO 900-875 MILLIBARS LIKELY PRECLUDING EVEN
WARMER VALUES.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...CERTAINLY A VERY PLEASANT EVENING FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE WEST TX AREA BECOMES
INCREASINGLY-PRONOUNCED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER JET GENERALLY SNAKING
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. EVEN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SHOULD BE HARDER
TO COME BY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN RATHER CLEAR SKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE WEAK TROUGH FROM TODAY ESSENTIALLY WASHES OUT OVER
THE AREA...AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEB IN
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY
LIGHT/FAIRLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BREEZES OF LARGELY NO MORE THAN 5
MPH. ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH ISN/T NECESSARILY
IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS
RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT LOW
TEMPS COULD IN FACT DROP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...STUCK CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS/GUIDANCE TO
KEEP THEM VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MEANING THAT MOST OF
THE CWA IS LOOKING AT MID-UPPER 40S AND ANY LOW-40S MOST FAVORED
IN THE VALLEY-DAWSON COUNTY CORRIDOR. DESPITE THE LIGHT
BREEZES...AM NOT EXPECTING MENTIONABLE FOG ISSUES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO NOTICEABLY LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THE BEGINNING OF A COOLER PERIOD. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF MAJOR FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN BUT
TENDING A LITTLE MORE DRY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A ZONAL FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH OF THESE WIND DIRECTIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
COPIOUS MOISTURE AND THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THAT. SO
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE TYPICAL EARLY FALL
DAYS...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE IN THE
60 TO 65 RANGE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CIRRUS IS STARTING TO BREAK UP AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND
WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BUT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE ALTHOUGH ONE OF THE TWO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS MAY MEET THRESHOLDS FOR A FEW HOURS (IN
THIS CASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS)...THE OTHER
PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER ELEMENT OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 20 MPH/25 MPH LOOKS TO FALL SHORT. MORE SPECIFICALLY AND
STARTING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE...AT LEAST A LIMITED AREA IN
THE FAR WEST (MAINLY WEST OF AN ORD-HOLDREGE-PHILLIPSBURG LINE)
COULD SEE VALUES DROP A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
CRITICAL 20 PERCENT LEVEL. TURNING TO WINDS HOWEVER...SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD LARGELY
AVERAGE ONLY 10-13 MPH WITH GUSTS LARGELY UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN
THESE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE BREEZES...NOT ONLY DOES OVERALL FIRE
DANGER TODAY FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL LEVELS THAT MIGHT REQUIRE
HEADLINES...BUT IT EVEN FALLS SHORT OF NEAR-CRITICAL LEVELS THAT
WOULD NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID). ALL THIS BEING SAID...CERTAINLY DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS TO MAKE SURE THEY DO
NOT EXCEED CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 241151
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
651 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOST IMPORTANTLY FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR BE NEARLY THE ISSUE THAT IT WAS YESTERDAY
MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA IS ONLY EXPERIENCING A GENERIC LIGHT
FOG/HAZE. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST LIMITED PORTIONS OF THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY IN KS) ARE LIKELY SEEING LOCALIZED HEAVIER FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE OR LESS...AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. PLENTY MORE ON THE FOG SITUATION BELOW...

MOVING BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG CONCERNS (OR LACK THEREOF)...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN A RATHER TRANQUIL AND DRY 24 HOURS...WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP. TEMP-WISE TODAY...THOUGH NOT
LOOKING AT THREATENING ANY DAILY RECORDS AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE
SITES GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS...AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE GENERALLY AIMED
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...KICKING OFF A
STRETCH OF 3 NOTABLY MILD DAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

IF THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTH MENTIONING TODAY IT
IS MARGINAL FIRE DANGER PRIMARILY FOR FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND THIS FIRE WEATHER ANGLE IS COVERED IN MORE DETAIL IN A
SEPARATE SECTION BELOW.

TURNING BACK TO THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 830Z/330 AM...AS MENTIONED
AT THE TOP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN
LIGHT FOG/HAZE...WITH THE ONLY TWO AUTOMATED AIRPORT SITES THAT
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FLIRTING WITH 1-MILE-OR-LESS VISIBILITIES
BEING SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG KS. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN BOTH MODELS AND ALSO
FORECASTER OPINION ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS MORNING COULD COME
ANYTHING CLOSE TO RESEMBLING THE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG OF YESTERDAY MORNING...AND THE SHORT ANSWER IS THAT BOTH
IMPRESSIONS WERE CORRECT TO SOME DEGREE. ON ONE HAND...THE LONG-
LASTING STRATUS YESTERDAY LEFT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND...WHICH OFTEN IS A PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES. IN FACT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KS HAVE SEEN SOME AT-LEAST-
PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT PER GROUND TRUTH REPORTS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED KS AIRPORT OBS. ON THE OTHER HAND THOUGH...THIS
MORNING/S SITUATION FEATURES A VERY DIFFERENT LOW-LEVEL SYNOPTIC
SETUP THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE IS LARGELY FAR MORE
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION. WHEREAS THURSDAY
MORNING FEATURED NEAR-CALM SURFACE BREEZES AND IN FACT VERY LIGHT
WIND THROUGHOUT THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS MORNING THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BREEZES OF AT LEAST 4-8 MPH PROVIDING AT LEAST WEAK MIXING. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONG THAN LAST NIGHT AND ARE GRADUALLY VEERING
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY...A DIRECTION THAT RARELY SUPPORTS
MAJOR FOG ISSUES FOR THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS LARGE OF A
FACTOR AS THE AFOREMENTIONED...FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LIKELY ALSO
BEEN HELD BACK SOMEWHAT BY RATHER THIN BUT NONETHELESS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BATCHES OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PER 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS FOR THE SURFACE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING...A FAIRLY SUBTLE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SERVING AS LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT
BETWEEN PREVAILING SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN CENTRAL NEB/KS AND MORE
WESTERLY BREEZES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES. IN THE BIGGER
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THE CWA IS UNDER PRONOUNCED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BEING DIRECTED BETWEEN AN EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/MEXICO
THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

FINALLY GETTING TO THE MEAT OF THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST
DISCUSSION...

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL OBVIOUSLY BE KEEPING AN EYE ON FOG
TRENDS TO MAKE SURE THINGS DON/T TAKE AN UNEXPECTED TURN FOR THE
WORSE...BUT OTHER THAN PORTIONS OF KS ZONES AND MAYBE SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VISIBILITIES NO WORSE THAN 1-2 MILES.

FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG: WARM...DRY
AND GENERALLY A MIX OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH MAYBE A FEW PERIODS OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AS
BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUE SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SMALL-
SCALE DISTURBANCES EMANATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA...BREEZES ACROSS THE CWA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM MORE SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...AND
EVEN NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
1/2 OF THE LOCAL AREA. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...WITH PERHAPS SOME ENHANCED
GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES. TEMP-WISE...ALTHOUGH ANY
THICKER CIRRUS BATCHES COULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF FULL
POTENTIAL...AIMED HIGHS PRETTY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BUT RAISED A FEW DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE
NORTH. THE NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MAINLY UPPER 70S NORTHEAST
TO LOW-MID 80S SOUTH AND WEST...WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING
GENERALLY ONLY UP TO 900-875 MILLIBARS LIKELY PRECLUDING EVEN
WARMER VALUES.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...CERTAINLY A VERY PLEASANT EVENING FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE WEST TX AREA BECOMES
INCREASINGLY-PRONOUNCED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER JET GENERALLY SNAKING
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. EVEN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SHOULD BE HARDER
TO COME BY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN RATHER CLEAR SKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE WEAK TROUGH FROM TODAY ESSENTIALLY WASHES OUT OVER
THE AREA...AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEB IN
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY
LIGHT/FAIRLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BREEZES OF LARGELY NO MORE THAN 5
MPH. ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH ISN/T NECESSARILY
IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS
RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT LOW
TEMPS COULD IN FACT DROP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...STUCK CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS/GUIDANCE TO
KEEP THEM VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MEANING THAT MOST OF
THE CWA IS LOOKING AT MID-UPPER 40S AND ANY LOW-40S MOST FAVORED
IN THE VALLEY-DAWSON COUNTY CORRIDOR. DESPITE THE LIGHT
BREEZES...AM NOT EXPECTING MENTIONABLE FOG ISSUES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO NOTICEABLY LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THE BEGINNING OF A COOLER PERIOD. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF MAJOR FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN BUT
TENDING A LITTLE MORE DRY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A ZONAL FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH OF THESE WIND DIRECTIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
COPIOUS MOISTURE AND THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THAT. SO
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE TYPICAL EARLY FALL
DAYS...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE IN THE
60 TO 65 RANGE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY...ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...AND ONLY VARYING DEGREES OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THAT BEING SAID...RIGHT OFF THE BAT THIS MORNING THERE ARE
TWO SHORT-TERM ISSUES WORTH MENTIONING. FIRST OF ALL...THERE COULD
BE A FEW MORE HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG...WHICH IS
HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 14Z. ALSO...HAVE EXTENDED THE
PREVIOUSLY-ADVERTISED MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)
THROUGH 14Z AS WELL...AS A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTS IN AROUND 30KT OF TOTAL SHEAR DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1000 FT AGL. AS FOR ACTUAL SURFACE
BREEZES...SPEEDS THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND 10KT OR LESS...AS DIRECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM
MORE SOUTHERLY TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TODAY BEHIND A PASSING
TROUGH AXIS. BREEZES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BEST-DESCRIBED AS
LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE ALTHOUGH ONE OF THE TWO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS MAY MEET THRESHOLDS FOR A FEW HOURS (IN
THIS CASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS)...THE OTHER
PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER ELEMENT OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 20 MPH/25 MPH LOOKS TO FALL SHORT. MORE SPECIFICALLY AND
STARTING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE...AT LEAST A LIMITED AREA IN
THE FAR WEST (MAINLY WEST OF AN ORD-HOLDREGE-PHILLIPSBURG LINE)
COULD SEE VALUES DROP A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
CRITICAL 20 PERCENT LEVEL. TURNING TO WINDS HOWEVER...SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD LARGELY
AVERAGE ONLY 10-13 MPH WITH GUSTS LARGELY UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN
THESE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE BREEZES...NOT ONLY DOES OVERALL FIRE
DANGER TODAY FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL LEVELS THAT MIGHT REQUIRE
HEADLINES...BUT IT EVEN FALLS SHORT OF NEAR-CRITICAL LEVELS THAT
WOULD NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID). ALL THIS BEING SAID...CERTAINLY DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS TO MAKE SURE THEY DO
NOT EXCEED CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 241120
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA EWD INTO
NORTHERN ALBERTA...AND NORTHERN MANITOBA. A NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED SE FROM THE MANITOBA DISTURBANCE INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDED FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WV IMAGERY OVERNIGHT HAS INDICATED A NICE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EWD TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS GAVE A BOOST
TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND HAS INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WERE NOTED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. VISBYS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELDS...THERE IS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. THE THREAT FOR FOG WILL
BE A MINOR ONE COMPARED TO THE WIDESPREAD FOG FROM 24 HRS AGO
THANKS TO THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS PRESENT ATTM. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 40 AT VALENTINE TO
55 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR
TODAY...THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO HIGHS TDY AS THE MAV NUMBERS ARE WARMER THAN THE MET
NUMBERS. DECIDED TO TREND HIGHS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET
GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPECTED HIGH CLOUD COVER TDY. THIS SEEMED TO
AGREE BETTER WITH FCST SOUNDING HIGHS WHICH RANGED FROM THE UPPER
70S IN THE NORTH...TO LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT...RIDGING
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...FORCING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST...TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S FOR NORTH PLATTE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN...WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL MIXING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY...WHERE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WARMER LOWER 80S ARE FORECASTED...AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...HELPING TO MIX WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.

A WARM SIGNAL IS SEEN FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE WARMED HIGHS 2 TO 4
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE HWY 83 CORRIDOR. MODELS AGREE
THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING...WITH
WESTERLY WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. TYPICALLY THIS IS A WARM SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE AIR
ALOFT /3000 TO 7000 FEET AGL/ IS WARM AND EASILY MIXED TO THE
SURFACE.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A DECENT FGEN BAND ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHILE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IS LIMITED...EXPECTING THAT AT LEAST
A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED 30 POPS...AS
THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD PLACE TO BE GIVEN THE DECENT LIFT BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE.

AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THE REST OF THE
WEEKS WEATHER. NOW THE GFS IS THE WARMER MODEL AND THE ECMWF COLDER.
THIS WAS OPPOSITE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF THE WARMER SOLUTION.
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF IS A MUCH STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING BEHIND A POTENT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME COLD AIR TO
DIVE ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEEKS END. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST SEEM
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS
AON 20000 FT AGL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AON
20000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT
UNDER 10 KTS TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB















000
FXUS63 KOAX 241108
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM...FOG AND
STRATUS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING REMAIN
SECONDARY CONCERNS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS SPILLING SE TOWARD/ACROSS ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION. ALTHOUGH
IT HAD THINNED AS IT MOVED OVER THE FA THROUGH 07Z...THICKNESS OF
IT UPSTREAM INDICATES AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
IMPACTING HIGHS A BIT...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY AND MAINLY NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD REMAIN THICKEST.
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG ALSO REMAINS A THREAT EARLY MOST AREAS...MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED OVER WRN IA WHERE IT HAD MOVED
INTO SW IA AFT 06Z. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY 05Z HRRR...AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE RAP. HOWEVER...THE LOWER LEVEL RH WAS FORECAST TO
SHIFT/ERODE EWD THROUGH THIS MORNING PER THOSE MODELS...PROBABLY
LIMITING ANY IMPACT TO MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FAR SW IA THIS MORNING AND ADJUST ACCORDING DEPENDING ON
WHETHER OR NOT IT SPREADS OR IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY. THE
PESSIMISTIC 00Z NAM...REGARDING ITS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING MUCH OF THE FA...WAS GENERALLY
DISREGARDED..ALTHOUGH IT WAS NOTED THAT STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING W
INTO SERN NEBR AT 08Z. BECAUSE OF WEAK MIXING AND THICKER CIRRUS
THREAT...LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT CNTRL/NRN ZONES.

WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA TODAY STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKLY INTO ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED LESS CI AND MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG GIVEN ERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS...AND LOWS LIKELY TO START
OUT COLDER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY NOT THAT MUCH COOLER DUE TO PROBABLY NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...KEPT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
BECAUSE OF THE COOLER START AND ABSENT STRONG MIXING.

00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH DID NOT MENTION FOG YET...DID INCREASE
SKY COVER SUNDAY MORNING CNTRL/NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD LINGER THE
LONGEST. AIRMASS RECOVERS ANY COOLING THROUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERE
OBSERVED SATURDAY. HOWEVER....BESIDES THE INCREASED LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL
...GFS INDICATED HIGHER CLOUDS RETURNING AS WELL AND MIXING DUE
TO WINDS COULD POSSIBLY BE LIMITED TO FAR SRN ZONES. THUS WITH THE CLOUD
AND POSSIBLY WEAK MIXING POTENTIAL NRN ZONES...KEPT MAX TEMPS IN
LOWER 70S THERE WITH OTHER READINGS CLOSE TO THOSE EXPECTED TO
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED IN FORECAST MONDAY NRN AREAS
AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...PARTIALLY TO RETAIN FORECAST
CONTINUITY...AS TROUGH CROSS PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF PER 00Z
GFS/ECMWF WAS LIMITED MONDAY AND MOSTLY ABSENT MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED MONDAY AFTN BEHIND FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE A TOUCH FASTER INTO SERN ZONES SO HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER MOST AREAS THAN PRIOR FORECAST.

WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW DRY WITH LTL/NO FORCING...ANY PRECIP
MENTION FOR TUESDAY WAS DROPPED...AND A CONTINUED COOL-DOWN SHOULD
PERSIST.

FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH MODEST WARM
ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH MODEL/PREV FORECAST BLEND ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT
WARM UP OVER TUESDAY...TRENDS WOULD INDICATE NUDGING UPWARD MORE
IF WARM ADVCTN CLOUDS APPEAR THEY WILL BE LIMITED.

EARLIER GFS LEAD THE CHARGE FOR A LATE WEEK COOL-DOWN AS TROUGH
SHARPENED TO OUR EAST. ECMWF FOLLOWED SUIT YDA AND CONTINUED THE
TREND WITH 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...GFS HAS NOW FLIPPED TO A WARMER
PATTERN THU/FRI. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF
THE TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VLIFR CIGS/VISBY IS JUST E OF KOMA AND MOST LIKELY WILL NOT MAKE
IT INTO THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR VISBY THROUGH EARLY THIS MRNG
AND WILL INCLUDE A SCT VLIFR DECK IN CASE THE CLOUDS DO MAKE IT TO
KOMA. SOME MVFR VISBY IS ALSO LIKELY AT KLNK/KOFK FOR A COUPLE
HOURS THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE WILL CONT THE MENTION OF LLWS AT
KOMA/KLNK THROUGH MID MRNG PER KOAX VWP. SFC FNT WILL MOV THRU ALL
3 TAF SITES BY MID AFTN SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST AND NW. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FM THIS AFTN THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KGID 240945
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOST IMPORTANTLY FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR BE NEARLY THE ISSUE THAT IT WAS YESTERDAY
MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA IS ONLY EXPERIENCING A GENERIC LIGHT
FOG/HAZE. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST LIMITED PORTIONS OF THE CWA
(ESPECIALLY IN KS) ARE LIKELY SEEING LOCALIZED HEAVIER FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE OR LESS...AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. PLENTY MORE ON THE FOG SITUATION BELOW...

MOVING BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG CONCERNS (OR LACK THEREOF)...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN A RATHER TRANQUIL AND DRY 24 HOURS...WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP. TEMP-WISE TODAY...THOUGH NOT
LOOKING AT THREATENING ANY DAILY RECORDS AT OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE
SITES GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS...AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE GENERALLY AIMED
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...KICKING OFF A
STRETCH OF 3 NOTABLY MILD DAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

IF THERE IS ONE POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTH MENTIONING TODAY IT
IS MARGINAL FIRE DANGER PRIMARILY FOR FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND THIS FIRE WEATHER ANGLE IS COVERED IN MORE DETAIL IN A
SEPARATE SECTION BELOW.

TURNING BACK TO THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 830Z/330 AM...AS MENTIONED
AT THE TOP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS SEEING LITTLE MORE THAN
LIGHT FOG/HAZE...WITH THE ONLY TWO AUTOMATED AIRPORT SITES THAT
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FLIRTING WITH 1-MILE-OR-LESS VISIBILITIES
BEING SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG KS. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN BOTH MODELS AND ALSO
FORECASTER OPINION ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS MORNING COULD COME
ANYTHING CLOSE TO RESEMBLING THE PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG OF YESTERDAY MORNING...AND THE SHORT ANSWER IS THAT BOTH
IMPRESSIONS WERE CORRECT TO SOME DEGREE. ON ONE HAND...THE LONG-
LASTING STRATUS YESTERDAY LEFT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND...WHICH OFTEN IS A PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF
SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES. IN FACT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KS HAVE SEEN SOME AT-LEAST-
PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT PER GROUND TRUTH REPORTS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED KS AIRPORT OBS. ON THE OTHER HAND THOUGH...THIS
MORNING/S SITUATION FEATURES A VERY DIFFERENT LOW-LEVEL SYNOPTIC
SETUP THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE IS LARGELY FAR MORE
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMATION. WHEREAS THURSDAY
MORNING FEATURED NEAR-CALM SURFACE BREEZES AND IN FACT VERY LIGHT
WIND THROUGHOUT THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER...THIS MORNING THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS EXPERIENCING FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BREEZES OF AT LEAST 4-8 MPH PROVIDING AT LEAST WEAK MIXING. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONG THAN LAST NIGHT AND ARE GRADUALLY VEERING
FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY...A DIRECTION THAT RARELY SUPPORTS
MAJOR FOG ISSUES FOR THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS LARGE OF A
FACTOR AS THE AFOREMENTIONED...FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS LIKELY ALSO
BEEN HELD BACK SOMEWHAT BY RATHER THIN BUT NONETHELESS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BATCHES OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST PER 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AS FOR THE SURFACE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING...A FAIRLY SUBTLE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SERVING AS LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT
BETWEEN PREVAILING SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN CENTRAL NEB/KS AND MORE
WESTERLY BREEZES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES. IN THE BIGGER
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THE CWA IS UNDER PRONOUNCED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BEING DIRECTED BETWEEN AN EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/MEXICO
THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

FINALLY GETTING TO THE MEAT OF THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST
DISCUSSION...

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL OBVIOUSLY BE KEEPING AN EYE ON FOG
TRENDS TO MAKE SURE THINGS DON/T TAKE AN UNEXPECTED TURN FOR THE
WORSE...BUT OTHER THAN PORTIONS OF KS ZONES AND MAYBE SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VISIBILITIES NO WORSE THAN 1-2 MILES.

FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND BEYOND ANY MORNING FOG: WARM...DRY
AND GENERALLY A MIX OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH MAYBE A FEW PERIODS OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AS
BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUE SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SMALL-
SCALE DISTURBANCES EMANATING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA...BREEZES ACROSS THE CWA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM MORE SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...AND
EVEN NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
1/2 OF THE LOCAL AREA. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...WITH PERHAPS SOME ENHANCED
GUSTINESS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES. TEMP-WISE...ALTHOUGH ANY
THICKER CIRRUS BATCHES COULD KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF FULL
POTENTIAL...AIMED HIGHS PRETTY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BUT RAISED A FEW DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE
NORTH. THE NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MAINLY UPPER 70S NORTHEAST
TO LOW-MID 80S SOUTH AND WEST...WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING
GENERALLY ONLY UP TO 900-875 MILLIBARS LIKELY PRECLUDING EVEN
WARMER VALUES.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...CERTAINLY A VERY PLEASANT EVENING FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE WEST TX AREA BECOMES
INCREASINGLY-PRONOUNCED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER JET GENERALLY SNAKING
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. EVEN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SHOULD BE HARDER
TO COME BY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN RATHER CLEAR SKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE WEAK TROUGH FROM TODAY ESSENTIALLY WASHES OUT OVER
THE AREA...AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEB IN
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY
LIGHT/FAIRLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BREEZES OF LARGELY NO MORE THAN 5
MPH. ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH ISN/T NECESSARILY
IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS
RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT LOW
TEMPS COULD IN FACT DROP A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...STUCK CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS MODELS/GUIDANCE TO
KEEP THEM VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...MEANING THAT MOST OF
THE CWA IS LOOKING AT MID-UPPER 40S AND ANY LOW-40S MOST FAVORED
IN THE VALLEY-DAWSON COUNTY CORRIDOR. DESPITE THE LIGHT
BREEZES...AM NOT EXPECTING MENTIONABLE FOG ISSUES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO NOTICEABLY LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER...ALTHOUGH SUPPOSE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THE BEGINNING OF A COOLER PERIOD. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF MAJOR FEATURES FROM RUN TO RUN BUT
TENDING A LITTLE MORE DRY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A ZONAL FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH OF THESE WIND DIRECTIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
COPIOUS MOISTURE AND THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THAT. SO
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE TYPICAL EARLY FALL
DAYS...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER...BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE IN THE
60 TO 65 RANGE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF SOME POTENTIALLY OFF-AND-ON MVFR
VISIBILITY THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE PERIOD THIS
MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY VARYING DEGREES
OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. ONE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE WAS
TO INTRODUCE A MARGINALLY-WARRANTED MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) THROUGH THESE FIRST 6 HOURS THIS MORNING...AS A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
RESULTS IN ROUGHLY 30KT OF DIFFERENCE OF SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND ROUGHLY 1000 FT AGL. AS FOR ACTUAL SURFACE WINDS...SPEEDS
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE
AROUND 10KT OR LESS...AS DIRECTION GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS FROM MORE
SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY BEHIND A PASSING TROUGH AXIS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE ALTHOUGH ONE OF THE TWO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS MAY MEET THRESHOLDS FOR A FEW HOURS (IN
THIS CASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS)...THE OTHER
PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER ELEMENT OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 20 MPH/25 MPH LOOKS TO FALL SHORT. MORE SPECIFICALLY AND
STARTING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE...AT LEAST A LIMITED AREA IN
THE FAR WEST (MAINLY WEST OF AN ORD-HOLDREGE-PHILLIPSBURG LINE)
COULD SEE VALUES DROP A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS EITHER SIDE OF THE
CRITICAL 20 PERCENT LEVEL. TURNING TO WINDS HOWEVER...SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD LARGELY
AVERAGE ONLY 10-13 MPH WITH GUSTS LARGELY UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN
THESE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE BREEZES...NOT ONLY DOES OVERALL FIRE
DANGER TODAY FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL LEVELS THAT MIGHT REQUIRE
HEADLINES...BUT IT EVEN FALLS SHORT OF NEAR-CRITICAL LEVELS THAT
WOULD NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT (HWOGID). ALL THIS BEING SAID...CERTAINLY DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS TO MAKE SURE THEY DO
NOT EXCEED CURRENT EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 240851
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA EWD INTO
NORTHERN ALBERTA...AND NORTHERN MANITOBA. A NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED SE FROM THE MANITOBA DISTURBANCE INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDED FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WV IMAGERY OVERNIGHT HAS INDICATED A NICE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EWD TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS GAVE A BOOST
TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND HAS INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WERE NOTED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. VISBYS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELDS...THERE IS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. THE THREAT FOR FOG WILL
BE A MINOR ONE COMPARED TO THE WIDESPREAD FOG FROM 24 HRS AGO
THANKS TO THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS PRESENT ATTM. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 40 AT VALENTINE TO
55 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR
TODAY...THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO HIGHS TDY AS THE MAV NUMBERS ARE WARMER THAN THE MET
NUMBERS. DECIDED TO TREND HIGHS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET
GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPECTED HIGH CLOUD COVER TDY. THIS SEEMED TO
AGREE BETTER WITH FCST SOUNDING HIGHS WHICH RANGED FROM THE UPPER
70S IN THE NORTH...TO LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT...RIDGING
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...FORCING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST...TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S FOR NORTH PLATTE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN...WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL MIXING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY...WHERE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WARMER LOWER 80S ARE FORECASTED...AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...HELPING TO MIX WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.

A WARM SIGNAL IS SEEN FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE WARMED HIGHS 2 TO 4
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE HWY 83 CORRIDOR. MODELS AGREE
THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING...WITH
WESTERLY WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. TYPICALLY THIS IS A WARM SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE AIR
ALOFT /3000 TO 7000 FEET AGL/ IS WARM AND EASILY MIXED TO THE
SURFACE.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A DECENT FGEN BAND ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHILE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IS LIMITED...EXPECTING THAT AT LEAST
A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED 30 POPS...AS
THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD PLACE TO BE GIVEN THE DECENT LIFT BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE.

AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THE REST OF THE
WEEKS WEATHER. NOW THE GFS IS THE WARMER MODEL AND THE ECMWF COLDER.
THIS WAS OPPOSITE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF THE WARMER SOLUTION.
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF IS A MUCH STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING BEHIND A POTENT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME COLD AIR TO
DIVE ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEEKS END. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST SEEM
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15KTS OR LESS. SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
OVER NIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB





000
FXUS63 KOAX 240814
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM...FOG AND
STRATUS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING REMAIN
SECONDARY CONCERNS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS SPILLING SE TOWARD/ACROSS ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION. ALTHOUGH
IT HAD THINNED AS IT MOVED OVER THE FA THROUGH 07Z...THICKNESS OF
IT UPSTREAM INDICATES AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
IMPACTING HIGHS A BIT...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY AND MAINLY NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD REMAIN THICKEST.
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG ALSO REMAINS A THREAT EARLY MOST AREAS...MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED OVER WRN IA WHERE IT HAD MOVED
INTO SW IA AFT 06Z. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY 05Z HRRR...AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE RAP. HOWEVER...THE LOWER LEVEL RH WAS FORECAST TO
SHIFT/ERODE EWD THROUGH THIS MORNING PER THOSE MODELS...PROBABLY
LIMITING ANY IMPACT TO MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FAR SW IA THIS MORNING AND ADJUST ACCORDING DEPENDING ON
WHETHER OR NOT IT SPREADS OR IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY. THE
PESSIMISTIC 00Z NAM...REGARDING ITS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING MUCH OF THE FA...WAS GENERALLY
DISREGARDED..ALTHOUGH IT WAS NOTED THAT STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING W
INTO SERN NEBR AT 08Z. BECAUSE OF WEAK MIXING AND THICKER CIRRUS
THREAT...LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT CNTRL/NRN ZONES.

WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA TODAY STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKLY INTO ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED LESS CI AND MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG GIVEN ERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS...AND LOWS LIKELY TO START
OUT COLDER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY NOT THAT MUCH COOLER DUE TO PROBABLY NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...KEPT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
BECAUSE OF THE COOLER START AND ABSENT STRONG MIXING.

00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH DID NOT MENTION FOG YET...DID INCREASE
SKY COVER SUNDAY MORNING CNTRL/NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD LINGER THE
LONGEST. AIRMASS RECOVERS ANY COOLING THROUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERE
OBSERVED SATURDAY. HOWEVER....BESIDES THE INCREASED LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL
...GFS INDICATED HIGHER CLOUDS RETURNING AS WELL AND MIXING DUE
TO WINDS COULD POSSIBLY BE LIMITED TO FAR SRN ZONES. THUS WITH THE CLOUD
AND POSSIBLY WEAK MIXING POTENTIAL NRN ZONES...KEPT MAX TEMPS IN
LOWER 70S THERE WITH OTHER READINGS CLOSE TO THOSE EXPECTED TO
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED IN FORECAST MONDAY NRN AREAS
AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...PARTIALLY TO RETAIN FORECAST
CONTINUITY...AS TROUGH CROSS PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF PER 00Z
GFS/ECMWF WAS LIMITED MONDAY AND MOSTLY ABSENT MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED MONDAY AFTN BEHIND FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE A TOUCH FASTER INTO SERN ZONES SO HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER MOST AREAS THAN PRIOR FORECAST.

WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW DRY WITH LTL/NO FORCING...ANY PRECIP
MENTION FOR TUESDAY WAS DROPPED...AND A CONTINUED COOL-DOWN SHOULD
PERSIST.

FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH MODEST WARM
ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH MODEL/PREV FORECAST BLEND ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT
WARM UP OVER TUESDAY...TRENDS WOULD INDICATE NUDGING UPWARD MORE
IF WARM ADVCTN CLOUDS APPEAR THEY WILL BE LIMITED.

EARLIER GFS LEAD THE CHARGE FOR A LATE WEEK COOL-DOWN AS TROUGH
SHARPENED TO OUR EAST. ECMWF FOLLOWED SUIT YDA AND CONTINUED THE
TREND WITH 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...GFS HAS NOW FLIPPED TO A WARMER
PATTERN THU/FRI. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF
THE TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CIGS BELOW FL010 AND VSBYS NEAR 3SM
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AT ALL SITES. IF THOSE CIGS/VSBYS
DO FORM...THEY SHOULD LIFT/IMPROVE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE MAINLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ080-090-
 091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 240814
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM...FOG AND
STRATUS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING REMAIN
SECONDARY CONCERNS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS SPILLING SE TOWARD/ACROSS ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION. ALTHOUGH
IT HAD THINNED AS IT MOVED OVER THE FA THROUGH 07Z...THICKNESS OF
IT UPSTREAM INDICATES AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
IMPACTING HIGHS A BIT...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY AND MAINLY NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD REMAIN THICKEST.
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG ALSO REMAINS A THREAT EARLY MOST AREAS...MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED OVER WRN IA WHERE IT HAD MOVED
INTO SW IA AFT 06Z. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY 05Z HRRR...AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE RAP. HOWEVER...THE LOWER LEVEL RH WAS FORECAST TO
SHIFT/ERODE EWD THROUGH THIS MORNING PER THOSE MODELS...PROBABLY
LIMITING ANY IMPACT TO MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FAR SW IA THIS MORNING AND ADJUST ACCORDING DEPENDING ON
WHETHER OR NOT IT SPREADS OR IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY. THE
PESSIMISTIC 00Z NAM...REGARDING ITS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING MUCH OF THE FA...WAS GENERALLY
DISREGARDED..ALTHOUGH IT WAS NOTED THAT STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING W
INTO SERN NEBR AT 08Z. BECAUSE OF WEAK MIXING AND THICKER CIRRUS
THREAT...LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT CNTRL/NRN ZONES.

WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA TODAY STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKLY INTO ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED LESS CI AND MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG GIVEN ERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS...AND LOWS LIKELY TO START
OUT COLDER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY NOT THAT MUCH COOLER DUE TO PROBABLY NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...KEPT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
BECAUSE OF THE COOLER START AND ABSENT STRONG MIXING.

00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH DID NOT MENTION FOG YET...DID INCREASE
SKY COVER SUNDAY MORNING CNTRL/NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD LINGER THE
LONGEST. AIRMASS RECOVERS ANY COOLING THROUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERE
OBSERVED SATURDAY. HOWEVER....BESIDES THE INCREASED LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL
...GFS INDICATED HIGHER CLOUDS RETURNING AS WELL AND MIXING DUE
TO WINDS COULD POSSIBLY BE LIMITED TO FAR SRN ZONES. THUS WITH THE CLOUD
AND POSSIBLY WEAK MIXING POTENTIAL NRN ZONES...KEPT MAX TEMPS IN
LOWER 70S THERE WITH OTHER READINGS CLOSE TO THOSE EXPECTED TO
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED IN FORECAST MONDAY NRN AREAS
AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...PARTIALLY TO RETAIN FORECAST
CONTINUITY...AS TROUGH CROSS PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF PER 00Z
GFS/ECMWF WAS LIMITED MONDAY AND MOSTLY ABSENT MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED MONDAY AFTN BEHIND FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE A TOUCH FASTER INTO SERN ZONES SO HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER MOST AREAS THAN PRIOR FORECAST.

WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW DRY WITH LTL/NO FORCING...ANY PRECIP
MENTION FOR TUESDAY WAS DROPPED...AND A CONTINUED COOL-DOWN SHOULD
PERSIST.

FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH MODEST WARM
ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH MODEL/PREV FORECAST BLEND ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT
WARM UP OVER TUESDAY...TRENDS WOULD INDICATE NUDGING UPWARD MORE
IF WARM ADVCTN CLOUDS APPEAR THEY WILL BE LIMITED.

EARLIER GFS LEAD THE CHARGE FOR A LATE WEEK COOL-DOWN AS TROUGH
SHARPENED TO OUR EAST. ECMWF FOLLOWED SUIT YDA AND CONTINUED THE
TREND WITH 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...GFS HAS NOW FLIPPED TO A WARMER
PATTERN THU/FRI. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF
THE TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CIGS BELOW FL010 AND VSBYS NEAR 3SM
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AT ALL SITES. IF THOSE CIGS/VSBYS
DO FORM...THEY SHOULD LIFT/IMPROVE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE MAINLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ080-090-
 091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KGID 240600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITHOUT TOTALLY RE-HASHING WHAT THE EVENING FORECASTER OUTLINED
VERY WELL IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 935 PM...THE
MAIN MESSAGE HERE IS THAT THIS FORECASTER AGREES THAT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNLIKELY LATE
TONIGHT/THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY TO THE IMPRESSIVE MAGNITUDE IT
REACHED THURSDAY MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST A LIGHT FOG
IS IN THE AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME...AND EARLIER
EVEN HAD A FEW REPORTS OF LOCALIZED DENSE FOG BETWEEN HOLDREGE-
PHILLIPSBURG. WILL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AND WILL
LEAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST FOR
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...BUT FORTUNATELY THE
MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY SMOOTHER THIS TIME AROUND
WHEN COMPARED TO THURSDAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...THANKS MAINLY TO GREATER LOW LEVEL MIXING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL TRYING TO GET A GOOD FEEL FOR THE FOG SITUATION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURE DROPS POST-SUNSET RESULTED IN RAPID FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THUS FAR THE FOG HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM
RANGE. AS OF 02Z THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS KPHG WHICH IS AT 1/4SM.

THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA IS GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5KTS OR LESS...AND WITH NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE...WHAT FOG DEVELOPMENT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR ISNT TOO SURPRISING. THAT SAID...SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES
INDICATE MORE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL WORK INTO WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS. ADD TO THAT...THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH DEW
POINT READINGS IN THE 40S...AND THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO WEST/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY WE WILL OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD
TO ONE-HALF OF THE CWA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAKER AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...IT STANDS TO REASON FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...IS
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THAT AREA.

SO...GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO MODIFY THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT. DID GO AHEAD WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE CWA NOW
THROUGH 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. AFTER
06Z...STRONGLY CONSIDERED PULLING ANY MENTION OF FOG FROM OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT IF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD DOESNT TRANSITION
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND/OR THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS DOESNT
DRY OUT AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THERE COULD CERTAINLY
STILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG BEYOND 06Z. TO PLAY IT SAFE...KEPT PATCHY
FOG GOING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...WENT AHEAD WITH AREAS
OF FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 1SM. OBVIOUSLY THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TRENDS
CONTINUE TO UNFOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCE OF FOG AND STRATUS. ALSO WE ARE LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY LOW
ENOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BRING UP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

STRATUS AND FOG TOOK A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE CWA TODAY AS AN UPPER
SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY PAINTING A CLEAR AND FOG FREE NIGHT...BUT SINCE WE HAD
STRATUS LINGER SO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
CWA...I HAVE A STRONG SUSPICION THAT MODELS ARE VERY WRONG. BASED ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...I WILL HAVE TO STRAY FAR FROM MODELS HERE AND
INTRODUCE A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE. AREAS ALONG THE EDGE OF STRATUS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO
DENSE FOG. THE SREF DOES INDICATE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
THE CWA TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SYNTHETIC GOES-R IMAGERY FROM THE WRF-
ARW. I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SKY COVER...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH/CENTRAL DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING STRATUS...DESPITE THE
RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL BE OCCURRING. IT STILL SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY WARM DAY.

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WHERE WE COULD DROP DOWN TO NEAR
20 PERCENT. THIS WILL HINGE A LOT ON HOW MUCH STRATUS MAY HANG
AROUND...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND DEW POINTS A LITTLE
HIGHER...RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ALSO...BY THE TIME HUMIDITY
BECOMES POTENTIALLY LOW ENOUGH TO BE A POSSIBLE ISSUE...WIND SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH
THESE THINGS IN MIND...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE MUCH OF A FIRE
WEATHER ISSUE FOR THURSDAY...SO I AM NOT MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN: THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM
THE ECMWF/JMA ALL INDICATE SOME PROGRESSION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LONGWAVES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE CNTRL USA RIDGE WILL RELOCATE
INTO THE ERN USA...ALLOWING THE E PACIFIC TROF TO MOVE TO THE W
COAST. THE NCEP/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING
THE TROF OVER THE E PACIFIC AND TRYING TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A TROF
OVER THE CNTRL USA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO HAVE
MEMBERS IN BOTH CAMPS. SO NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE
...BUT THE EC/JMA IS PREFERRED. THIS IS ALSO THE CPC PREFERENCE.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EC DID COME IN MUCH SIMILAR TO THE
GFS.

THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL CONT TO AVERAGE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS /SEE THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS/...BUT THERE
WILL BE INTERRUPTIONS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH A DAY OR TWO OF
BELOW NORMAL AUTUMN CHILL. BOTTOM LINE IS NO BIG/EXTENDED COOLDOWN
ARE FORESEEN HERE THRU THE END OF THE MONTH AND PROBABLY THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOV AS WELL.

IF THE TROF DOES EVOLVE ALONG THE W COAST...CONDITIONS WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME RAIN IN EARLY NOV WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE
ERN USA CIRCULATING GULF AIR NORTHWARD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC
8-14 DAY LOOK...WITH PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS
THE E PACIFIC TROF GETS KICKED ONSHORE. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUN
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE MON-TUE. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AT
00Z/TUE. THE NON-GFS MODELS ARE ALL APPRECIABLY DEEPER WITH THE
KICKER TROF WITH HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OF 130M. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE POTENCY OF THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE MON-TUE. NW FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP TUE WITH ZONAL FLOW WED BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO BUILDING
HEIGHTS OCCURS THU.

SURFACE: A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU FRI NIGHT AND BRIEFLY
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR I-70 SAT...AS WEAK HIGH PRES QUICKLY RACES
THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W. IT WILL FORCE THE WRN END OF THE FRONT TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SUN. THE NEXT COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TUE WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING WED AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE E. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL
BE HEADING E ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. ITS COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO
MOVE THRU HERE WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: UNEVENTFUL/DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLED THE PREVIOUS
FCST BY 1-3F SINCE THE FRONTAL TROF WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING.

SAT: CONTINUED VERY NICE WITH SUBSIDENCE/RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGH PRES
SLIDES BY TO THE N. NOT AN APPRECIABLE COOLDOWN S OF HWY 6. TEMPS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRI. ANOTHER DAY OF A SOLID 10-15F
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING: AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE FCST SHOULD BE
DRY. A 40KT LOW-LVL JET WILL DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOW-LVLS ENOUGH TO CREATE AN INSTABILITY
BURST AND POSSIBLE MID-LVL SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CINH...BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL PRODUCES. MUCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE IF ACCAS
CAN FORM.

ONLY ONE 09Z SREF MEMBER OUTPUTS MEASURABLE QPF. THE 00Z/06Z/12Z
GFS CONT TO DO THE SAME BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A WEAKNESS IN ITS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME AS IT HAS NO DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN. A QUICK CHECK OF THE 15Z SREF AND ITS DRY.

SUN: SOME MID-LVL ACCAS MAY BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY.

SUN NIGHT: A DECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL DELIVER
THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN SINCE THE 17TH-18TH.

MON: COLD AIR ADVECTION. BREEZY AND COOLER. TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR POST FRONTAL
SHWRS.

SHOWERS: "BEST" CHANCE 4 PM MON-4 AM TUE TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMTS
LOOK VERY LIGHT. 00Z EC ENSEMBLE 24 HR QPF PROBABILITIES FOR .10
ENDING 12Z/TUE ARE LOW. ONLY 20-30%...LOWEST SE THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA. 40% FAR NW FROM LXN-ORD.

TUE: TROF OVERHEAD. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FCST AND TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLIER THAN NORMAL. THAT HAS BEEN AN INFREQUENT OCCURRENCE THIS
MONTH.

THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP AT GRI IS RUNNING 1.9 ABOVE NORMAL BUT THAT
ACCOUNTS FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EACH CALENDAR DAY.

WED: TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HERE. POSSIBLE COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THU: HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. TEMPS STAY SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF SOME POTENTIALLY OFF-AND-ON MVFR
VISIBILITY THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE PERIOD THIS
MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY VARYING DEGREES
OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. ONE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE WAS
TO INTRODUCE A MARGINALLY-WARRANTED MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) THROUGH THESE FIRST 6 HOURS THIS MORNING...AS A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
RESULTS IN ROUGHLY 30KT OF DIFFERENCE OF SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND ROUGHLY 1000 FT AGL. AS FOR ACTUAL SURFACE WINDS...SPEEDS
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD ONLY AVERAGE
AROUND 10KT OR LESS...AS DIRECTION GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS FROM MORE
SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY BEHIND A PASSING TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 240524
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND BEYOND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...THEN IF ANY RECORD HIGHS WILL FALL
TOMORROW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND PUSHING
HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SFC HAVE HELPED MIX OUT THE LL MOISTURE FROM THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER STILL HAVE AN AREA FROM KMCK TO KBBW AND TO THE
EAST WHERE DEW PTS ARE STILL IN THE 50S. WE ALSO HAVE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY FOG FORECAST.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE RICH
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE ZONES...AM EXPECTING SOME FOG TO REDEVELOP.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WITH THE SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT...NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WITH KBBW STILL SEEING A DEW PT IN
THE 50S...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS IN THE 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR FOG WHERE DEW PTS STILL AROUND 50 OR
ABOVE. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THE SW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
DRYING TO OCCUR AND KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DENSE...THUS WILL HAVE ONLY PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

TOMORROW A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE /CIRRUS/ IS PUSHED NORTH RESULTING WITH SUNNY SKIES.
THUS TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY CLIMB IN THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE A
DELAY IF ANY FOG LINGERS IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY QUICK MIXING. GFS IS THE MOST
AMBITIOUS MIXING TOMORROW AND AS A RESULT HAS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES. LATELY WE HAVE MIXED WELL AND MODELS HAVE BEEN COOL ON
HIGHS...THUS FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE WARMEST MAV GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH SW NEB
INTO THE MID 80S. RECORDS FOR TOMORROW ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SO WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSOURI BASIN. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS SATURDAY WHICH LIMITS VERTICAL MIXING ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS
SATURDAY RISE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO NEAR 80 SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTN.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF EAST INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS SHOW A BAND OF STRATUS FORMING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT. A LOW PRESS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD LIFT
THIS FRONT AND THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MORNING
WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SD DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN THE
STRONG THERMAL FORCING AND WEST WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 80S SHOULD
OCCUR BUT THE GUIDANCE IS LAGGING HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 70S IN MANY
AREAS. COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTN
AND THE MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH THIS FEATURE.

OTHER THAN THE STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. A CHECK ON CIRRUS IN THE MODELS INDICATES THESE CLOUDS
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS THE JET AFFECTS THAT
AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 20S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15KTS OR LESS. SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
OVER NIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KOAX 240446
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING COULD POSE AN IMPACT.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS AREA CONTINUED TO
SHRINK WITH ONLY A SMALL PATCH IN SCNTRL NEBR AT 1930Z. A WEAK
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEBR TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD HELP LIMIT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
STRATUS WILL EXPAND OR REDEVELOP OVER THE FA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 17Z HRRR/RAP INDICATED AREA WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE NEAR MO RIVER AND INTO WRN IA ALTHOUGH FORMER MODEL HAD BEEN
STEADILY DECREASING THAT NOTION LAST FEW UPDATES. ANY LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD THEN SHIFT NE AS SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
A GOES FOG PRODUCT SIMULATOR FROM CSU SUGGESTED MUCH OF THE FA
COULD GET SOCKED BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS IF NOT FOG TOO. ALTHOUGH
ONLY A PATCHY FOG MENTION WILL BE MADE DUE TO THE INCREASED BLYR
WINDS...DID INCREASE SKY COVER TONIGHT TO REFLECT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF ST AND THEN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS MORE CI LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HOWEVER...AIRMASS WARMS INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK
WAVE PASSES AND FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON ANY STRATUS MIXING OUT
OR SHIFTING NE OF THE FA EARLY IN THE DAY. NO BIG CHANGE FROM PREV
FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH DID BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY A BIT...MAINLY NORTH AS SHIFT TO NW WINDS COULD PROVIDE A
BIT BETTER MIXING TO COUNTER WEAK COOL ADVECTION IN AFTN.

SATURDAY STILL SHOULD BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE
MILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN NRN PLAINS BEHIND WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA.

ALTHOUGH UPPER HGTS BEGIN FALLING ACROSS PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF
NEXT TROUGH...MILD AIR SPREADS BACK NORTHEAST WHICH COULD
CONCEIVABLY PRODUCE MAX TEMPS AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME HINT AT STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING...KEPT
READINGS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW THOSE EXPECTED FRIDAY...MAINLY
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PASSAGE OF NEXT TROUGH APPEARS IT WILL BE A TOUCH SLOWER THAN IT
LOOKED LIKE YDA. THIS SHOULD RESTRICT PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY WRN
ZONES MONDAY BUT ALSO LINGER SOME CHC ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW POPS WERE KEPT IN SLGT CHC OR
LOWER CHC RANGES. WITH THE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAX TEMPS
WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.

COOLER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY BEHIND TROUGH/FRONT IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODEL SMOOTHING/BLENDING
PRODUCED UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S MOST AREAS THOSE THREE DAYS...WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WITH A WAVE ON WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN
TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY HIGHER THEN. ALSO MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
COLDER ON THURSDAY BEHIND THIS NEXT WEAK WAVE. BOTH OF WHICH
SHOULD WORK THEMSELVES OUT IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING REMAINS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CIGS BELOW FL010 AND VSBYS NEAR 3SM
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AT ALL SITES. IF THOSE CIGS/VSBYS
DO FORM...THEY SHOULD LIFT/IMPROVE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE MAINLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KGID 240235
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
935 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL TRYING TO GET A GOOD FEEL FOR THE FOG SITUATION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURE DROPS POST-SUNSET RESULTED IN RAPID FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THUS FAR THE FOG HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM
RANGE. AS OF 02Z THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS KPHG WHICH IS AT 1/4SM.

THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA IS GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5KTS OR LESS...AND WITH NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE...WHAT FOG DEVELOPMENT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR ISNT TOO SURPRISING. THAT SAID...SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES
INDICATE MORE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL WORK INTO WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS. ADD TO THAT...THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH DEW
POINT READINGS IN THE 40S...AND THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO WEST/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY WE WILL OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD
TO ONE-HALF OF THE CWA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAKER AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...IT STANDS TO REASON FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...IS
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THAT AREA.

SO...GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO MODIFY THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT. DID GO AHEAD WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE CWA NOW
THROUGH 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. AFTER
06Z...STRONGLY CONSIDERED PULLING ANY MENTION OF FOG FROM OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT IF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD DOESNT TRANSITION
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND/OR THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS DOESNT
DRY OUT AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THERE COULD CERTAINLY
STILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG BEYOND 06Z. TO PLAY IT SAFE...KEPT PATCHY
FOG GOING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...WENT AHEAD WITH AREAS
OF FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 1SM. OBVIOUSLY THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TRENDS
CONTINUE TO UNFOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCE OF FOG AND STRATUS. ALSO WE ARE LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY LOW
ENOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BRING UP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

STRATUS AND FOG TOOK A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE CWA TODAY AS AN UPPER
SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY PAINTING A CLEAR AND FOG FREE NIGHT...BUT SINCE WE HAD
STRATUS LINGER SO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
CWA...I HAVE A STRONG SUSPICION THAT MODELS ARE VERY WRONG. BASED ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...I WILL HAVE TO STRAY FAR FROM MODELS HERE AND
INTRODUCE A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE. AREAS ALONG THE EDGE OF STRATUS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO
DENSE FOG. THE SREF DOES INDICATE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
THE CWA TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SYNTHETIC GOES-R IMAGERY FROM THE WRF-
ARW. I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SKY COVER...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH/CENTRAL DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING STRATUS...DESPITE THE
RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL BE OCCURRING. IT STILL SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY WARM DAY.

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WHERE WE COULD DROP DOWN TO NEAR
20 PERCENT. THIS WILL HINGE A LOT ON HOW MUCH STRATUS MAY HANG
AROUND...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND DEW POINTS A LITTLE
HIGHER...RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ALSO...BY THE TIME HUMIDITY
BECOMES POTENTIALLY LOW ENOUGH TO BE A POSSIBLE ISSUE...WIND SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH
THESE THINGS IN MIND...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE MUCH OF A FIRE
WEATHER ISSUE FOR THURSDAY...SO I AM NOT MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN: THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM
THE ECMWF/JMA ALL INDICATE SOME PROGRESSION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LONGWAVES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE CNTRL USA RIDGE WILL RELOCATE
INTO THE ERN USA...ALLOWING THE E PACIFIC TROF TO MOVE TO THE W
COAST. THE NCEP/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING
THE TROF OVER THE E PACIFIC AND TRYING TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A TROF
OVER THE CNTRL USA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO HAVE
MEMBERS IN BOTH CAMPS. SO NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE
...BUT THE EC/JMA IS PREFERRED. THIS IS ALSO THE CPC PREFERENCE.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EC DID COME IN MUCH SIMILAR TO THE
GFS.

THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL CONT TO AVERAGE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS /SEE THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS/...BUT THERE
WILL BE INTERRUPTIONS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH A DAY OR TWO OF
BELOW NORMAL AUTUMN CHILL. BOTTOM LINE IS NO BIG/EXTENDED COOLDOWN
ARE FORESEEN HERE THRU THE END OF THE MONTH AND PROBABLY THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOV AS WELL.

IF THE TROF DOES EVOLVE ALONG THE W COAST...CONDITIONS WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME RAIN IN EARLY NOV WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE
ERN USA CIRCULATING GULF AIR NORTHWARD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC
8-14 DAY LOOK...WITH PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS
THE E PACIFIC TROF GETS KICKED ONSHORE. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUN
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE MON-TUE. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AT
00Z/TUE. THE NON-GFS MODELS ARE ALL APPRECIABLY DEEPER WITH THE
KICKER TROF WITH HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OF 130M. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE POTENCY OF THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE MON-TUE. NW FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP TUE WITH ZONAL FLOW WED BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO BUILDING
HEIGHTS OCCURS THU.

SURFACE: A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU FRI NIGHT AND BRIEFLY
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR I-70 SAT...AS WEAK HIGH PRES QUICKLY RACES
THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W. IT WILL FORCE THE WRN END OF THE FRONT TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SUN. THE NEXT COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TUE WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING WED AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE E. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL
BE HEADING E ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. ITS COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO
MOVE THRU HERE WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: UNEVENTFUL/DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLED THE PREVIOUS
FCST BY 1-3F SINCE THE FRONTAL TROF WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING.

SAT: CONTINUED VERY NICE WITH SUBSIDENCE/RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGH PRES
SLIDES BY TO THE N. NOT AN APPRECIABLE COOLDOWN S OF HWY 6. TEMPS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRI. ANOTHER DAY OF A SOLID 10-15F
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING: AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE FCST SHOULD BE
DRY. A 40KT LOW-LVL JET WILL DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOW-LVLS ENOUGH TO CREATE AN INSTABILITY
BURST AND POSSIBLE MID-LVL SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CINH...BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL PRODUCES. MUCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE IF ACCAS
CAN FORM.

ONLY ONE 09Z SREF MEMBER OUTPUTS MEASURABLE QPF. THE 00Z/06Z/12Z
GFS CONT TO DO THE SAME BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A WEAKNESS IN ITS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME AS IT HAS NO DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN. A QUICK CHECK OF THE 15Z SREF AND ITS DRY.

SUN: SOME MID-LVL ACCAS MAY BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY.

SUN NIGHT: A DECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL DELIVER
THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN SINCE THE 17TH-18TH.

MON: COLD AIR ADVECTION. BREEZY AND COOLER. TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR POST FRONTAL
SHWRS.

SHOWERS: "BEST" CHANCE 4 PM MON-4 AM TUE TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMTS
LOOK VERY LIGHT. 00Z EC ENSEMBLE 24 HR QPF PROBABILITIES FOR .10
ENDING 12Z/TUE ARE LOW. ONLY 20-30%...LOWEST SE THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA. 40% FAR NW FROM LXN-ORD.

TUE: TROF OVERHEAD. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FCST AND TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLIER THAN NORMAL. THAT HAS BEEN AN INFREQUENT OCCURRENCE THIS
MONTH.

THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP AT GRI IS RUNNING 1.9 ABOVE NORMAL BUT THAT
ACCOUNTS FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EACH CALENDAR DAY.

WED: TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HERE. POSSIBLE COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THU: HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. TEMPS STAY SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
EVENING) ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATE...FOG QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA POST-SUNSET AND IS
IMPACTING EAR WITH A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF AROUND 3SM. GRI IS
SOMEWHAT BETTER WITH A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF AROUND 5SM. WENT
AHEAD AND AMENDED BOTH TAFS TO REFLECT THESE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL BELIEVED A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WEST/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SUSTAINED AT AROUND
08KTS...WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA AND...ALONG
WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALSO ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...HELP FOG DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT
EAR AND GRI THROUGH 06Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...IT IS BELIEVED THE
WORST VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF GRI AND EAR.
THAT SAID...THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
CASE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION CAN REACH AS FAR NORTHWEST AS GRI AND/OR EAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 240235
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
935 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STILL TRYING TO GET A GOOD FEEL FOR THE FOG SITUATION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURE DROPS POST-SUNSET RESULTED IN RAPID FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THUS FAR THE FOG HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM
RANGE. AS OF 02Z THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS KPHG WHICH IS AT 1/4SM.

THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA IS GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5KTS OR LESS...AND WITH NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE...WHAT FOG DEVELOPMENT WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR ISNT TOO SURPRISING. THAT SAID...SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES
INDICATE MORE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL WORK INTO WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS INCREASING TO AROUND 10KTS. ADD TO THAT...THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH DEW
POINT READINGS IN THE 40S...AND THIS DRIER AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO WEST/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT.
GIVEN ALL THIS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY WE WILL OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-THIRD
TO ONE-HALF OF THE CWA. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAKER AND FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...IT STANDS TO REASON FOG
DEVELOPMENT...AND PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...IS
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THAT AREA.

SO...GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO MODIFY THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT. DID GO AHEAD WITH PATCHY FOG FOR THE ENTIRE CWA NOW
THROUGH 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. AFTER
06Z...STRONGLY CONSIDERED PULLING ANY MENTION OF FOG FROM OUR
NORTHWEST...BUT IF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD DOESNT TRANSITION
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND/OR THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS DOESNT
DRY OUT AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THERE COULD CERTAINLY
STILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG BEYOND 06Z. TO PLAY IT SAFE...KEPT PATCHY
FOG GOING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ONE-HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...WENT AHEAD WITH AREAS
OF FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 1SM. OBVIOUSLY THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TRENDS
CONTINUE TO UNFOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCE OF FOG AND STRATUS. ALSO WE ARE LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY LOW
ENOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BRING UP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

STRATUS AND FOG TOOK A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE CWA TODAY AS AN UPPER
SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY PAINTING A CLEAR AND FOG FREE NIGHT...BUT SINCE WE HAD
STRATUS LINGER SO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
CWA...I HAVE A STRONG SUSPICION THAT MODELS ARE VERY WRONG. BASED ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...I WILL HAVE TO STRAY FAR FROM MODELS HERE AND
INTRODUCE A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE. AREAS ALONG THE EDGE OF STRATUS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO
DENSE FOG. THE SREF DOES INDICATE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
THE CWA TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SYNTHETIC GOES-R IMAGERY FROM THE WRF-
ARW. I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SKY COVER...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH/CENTRAL DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING STRATUS...DESPITE THE
RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL BE OCCURRING. IT STILL SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY WARM DAY.

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WHERE WE COULD DROP DOWN TO NEAR
20 PERCENT. THIS WILL HINGE A LOT ON HOW MUCH STRATUS MAY HANG
AROUND...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND DEW POINTS A LITTLE
HIGHER...RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ALSO...BY THE TIME HUMIDITY
BECOMES POTENTIALLY LOW ENOUGH TO BE A POSSIBLE ISSUE...WIND SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH
THESE THINGS IN MIND...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE MUCH OF A FIRE
WEATHER ISSUE FOR THURSDAY...SO I AM NOT MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN: THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM
THE ECMWF/JMA ALL INDICATE SOME PROGRESSION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LONGWAVES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE CNTRL USA RIDGE WILL RELOCATE
INTO THE ERN USA...ALLOWING THE E PACIFIC TROF TO MOVE TO THE W
COAST. THE NCEP/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING
THE TROF OVER THE E PACIFIC AND TRYING TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A TROF
OVER THE CNTRL USA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO HAVE
MEMBERS IN BOTH CAMPS. SO NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE
...BUT THE EC/JMA IS PREFERRED. THIS IS ALSO THE CPC PREFERENCE.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EC DID COME IN MUCH SIMILAR TO THE
GFS.

THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL CONT TO AVERAGE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS /SEE THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS/...BUT THERE
WILL BE INTERRUPTIONS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH A DAY OR TWO OF
BELOW NORMAL AUTUMN CHILL. BOTTOM LINE IS NO BIG/EXTENDED COOLDOWN
ARE FORESEEN HERE THRU THE END OF THE MONTH AND PROBABLY THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOV AS WELL.

IF THE TROF DOES EVOLVE ALONG THE W COAST...CONDITIONS WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME RAIN IN EARLY NOV WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE
ERN USA CIRCULATING GULF AIR NORTHWARD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC
8-14 DAY LOOK...WITH PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS
THE E PACIFIC TROF GETS KICKED ONSHORE. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUN
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE MON-TUE. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AT
00Z/TUE. THE NON-GFS MODELS ARE ALL APPRECIABLY DEEPER WITH THE
KICKER TROF WITH HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OF 130M. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE POTENCY OF THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE MON-TUE. NW FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP TUE WITH ZONAL FLOW WED BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO BUILDING
HEIGHTS OCCURS THU.

SURFACE: A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU FRI NIGHT AND BRIEFLY
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR I-70 SAT...AS WEAK HIGH PRES QUICKLY RACES
THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W. IT WILL FORCE THE WRN END OF THE FRONT TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SUN. THE NEXT COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TUE WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING WED AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE E. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL
BE HEADING E ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. ITS COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO
MOVE THRU HERE WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: UNEVENTFUL/DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLED THE PREVIOUS
FCST BY 1-3F SINCE THE FRONTAL TROF WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING.

SAT: CONTINUED VERY NICE WITH SUBSIDENCE/RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGH PRES
SLIDES BY TO THE N. NOT AN APPRECIABLE COOLDOWN S OF HWY 6. TEMPS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRI. ANOTHER DAY OF A SOLID 10-15F
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING: AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE FCST SHOULD BE
DRY. A 40KT LOW-LVL JET WILL DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOW-LVLS ENOUGH TO CREATE AN INSTABILITY
BURST AND POSSIBLE MID-LVL SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CINH...BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL PRODUCES. MUCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE IF ACCAS
CAN FORM.

ONLY ONE 09Z SREF MEMBER OUTPUTS MEASURABLE QPF. THE 00Z/06Z/12Z
GFS CONT TO DO THE SAME BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A WEAKNESS IN ITS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME AS IT HAS NO DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN. A QUICK CHECK OF THE 15Z SREF AND ITS DRY.

SUN: SOME MID-LVL ACCAS MAY BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY.

SUN NIGHT: A DECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL DELIVER
THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN SINCE THE 17TH-18TH.

MON: COLD AIR ADVECTION. BREEZY AND COOLER. TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR POST FRONTAL
SHWRS.

SHOWERS: "BEST" CHANCE 4 PM MON-4 AM TUE TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMTS
LOOK VERY LIGHT. 00Z EC ENSEMBLE 24 HR QPF PROBABILITIES FOR .10
ENDING 12Z/TUE ARE LOW. ONLY 20-30%...LOWEST SE THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA. 40% FAR NW FROM LXN-ORD.

TUE: TROF OVERHEAD. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FCST AND TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLIER THAN NORMAL. THAT HAS BEEN AN INFREQUENT OCCURRENCE THIS
MONTH.

THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP AT GRI IS RUNNING 1.9 ABOVE NORMAL BUT THAT
ACCOUNTS FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EACH CALENDAR DAY.

WED: TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HERE. POSSIBLE COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THU: HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. TEMPS STAY SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
EVENING) ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATE...FOG QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA POST-SUNSET AND IS
IMPACTING EAR WITH A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF AROUND 3SM. GRI IS
SOMEWHAT BETTER WITH A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION OF AROUND 5SM. WENT
AHEAD AND AMENDED BOTH TAFS TO REFLECT THESE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL BELIEVED A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WEST/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SUSTAINED AT AROUND
08KTS...WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA AND...ALONG
WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALSO ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...HELP FOG DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT
EAR AND GRI THROUGH 06Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...IT IS BELIEVED THE
WORST VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF GRI AND EAR.
THAT SAID...THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
CASE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION CAN REACH AS FAR NORTHWEST AS GRI AND/OR EAR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 232357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCE OF FOG AND STRATUS. ALSO WE ARE LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY LOW
ENOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BRING UP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

STRATUS AND FOG TOOK A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE CWA TODAY AS AN UPPER
SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY PAINTING A CLEAR AND FOG FREE NIGHT...BUT SINCE WE HAD
STRATUS LINGER SO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
CWA...I HAVE A STRONG SUSPICION THAT MODELS ARE VERY WRONG. BASED ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...I WILL HAVE TO STRAY FAR FROM MODELS HERE AND
INTRODUCE A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE. AREAS ALONG THE EDGE OF STRATUS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO
DENSE FOG. THE SREF DOES INDICATE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
THE CWA TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SYNTHETIC GOES-R IMAGERY FROM THE WRF-
ARW. I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SKY COVER...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH/CENTRAL DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING STRATUS...DESPITE THE
RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL BE OCCURRING. IT STILL SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY WARM DAY.

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WHERE WE COULD DROP DOWN TO NEAR
20 PERCENT. THIS WILL HINGE A LOT ON HOW MUCH STRATUS MAY HANG
AROUND...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND DEW POINTS A LITTLE
HIGHER...RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ALSO...BY THE TIME HUMIDITY
BECOMES POTENTIALLY LOW ENOUGH TO BE A POSSIBLE ISSUE...WIND SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH
THESE THINGS IN MIND...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE MUCH OF A FIRE
WEATHER ISSUE FOR THURSDAY...SO I AM NOT MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN: THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM
THE ECMWF/JMA ALL INDICATE SOME PROGRESSION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LONGWAVES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE CNTRL USA RIDGE WILL RELOCATE
INTO THE ERN USA...ALLOWING THE E PACIFIC TROF TO MOVE TO THE W
COAST. THE NCEP/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING
THE TROF OVER THE E PACIFIC AND TRYING TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A TROF
OVER THE CNTRL USA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO HAVE
MEMBERS IN BOTH CAMPS. SO NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE
...BUT THE EC/JMA IS PREFERRED. THIS IS ALSO THE CPC PREFERENCE.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EC DID COME IN MUCH SIMILAR TO THE
GFS.

THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL CONT TO AVERAGE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS /SEE THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS/...BUT THERE
WILL BE INTERRUPTIONS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH A DAY OR TWO OF
BELOW NORMAL AUTUMN CHILL. BOTTOM LINE IS NO BIG/EXTENDED COOLDOWN
ARE FORESEEN HERE THRU THE END OF THE MONTH AND PROBABLY THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOV AS WELL.

IF THE TROF DOES EVOLVE ALONG THE W COAST...CONDITIONS WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME RAIN IN EARLY NOV WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE
ERN USA CIRCULATING GULF AIR NORTHWARD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC
8-14 DAY LOOK...WITH PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS
THE E PACIFIC TROF GETS KICKED ONSHORE. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUN
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE MON-TUE. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AT
00Z/TUE. THE NON-GFS MODELS ARE ALL APPRECIABLY DEEPER WITH THE
KICKER TROF WITH HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OF 130M. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE POTENCY OF THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE MON-TUE. NW FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP TUE WITH ZONAL FLOW WED BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO BUILDING
HEIGHTS OCCURS THU.

SURFACE: A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU FRI NIGHT AND BRIEFLY
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR I-70 SAT...AS WEAK HIGH PRES QUICKLY RACES
THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W. IT WILL FORCE THE WRN END OF THE FRONT TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SUN. THE NEXT COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TUE WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING WED AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE E. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL
BE HEADING E ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. ITS COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO
MOVE THRU HERE WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: UNEVENTFUL/DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLED THE PREVIOUS
FCST BY 1-3F SINCE THE FRONTAL TROF WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING.

SAT: CONTINUED VERY NICE WITH SUBSIDENCE/RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGH PRES
SLIDES BY TO THE N. NOT AN APPRECIABLE COOLDOWN S OF HWY 6. TEMPS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRI. ANOTHER DAY OF A SOLID 10-15F
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING: AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE FCST SHOULD BE
DRY. A 40KT LOW-LVL JET WILL DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOW-LVLS ENOUGH TO CREATE AN INSTABILITY
BURST AND POSSIBLE MID-LVL SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CINH...BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL PRODUCES. MUCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE IF ACCAS
CAN FORM.

ONLY ONE 09Z SREF MEMBER OUTPUTS MEASUREABLE QPF. THE 00Z/06Z/12Z
GFS CONT TO DO THE SAME BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A WEAKNESS IN ITS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME AS IT HAS NO DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN.
A QUICK CHECK OF THE 15Z SREF AND ITS DRY.

SUN: SOME MID-LVL ACCAS MAY BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY.

SUN NIGHT: A DECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL DELIVER
THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN SINCE THE 17TH-18TH.

MON: COLD AIR ADVECTION. BREEZY AND COOLER. TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR POST FRONTAL
SHWRS.

SHOWERS: "BEST" CHANCE 4 PM MON-4 AM TUE TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMTS
LOOK VERY LIGHT. 00Z EC ENSEMBLE 24 HR QPF PROBABILITIES FOR .10
ENDING 12Z/TUE ARE LOW. ONLY 20-30%...LOWEST SE THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA. 40% FAR NW FROM LXN-ORD.

TUE: TROF OVERHEAD. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FCST AND TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLIER THAN NORMAL. THAT HAS BEEN AN INFREQUENT OCCURRENCE THIS
MONTH.

THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP AT GRI IS RUNNING 1.9 ABOVE NORMAL BUT THAT
ACCOUNTS FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EACH CALENDAR DAY.

WED: TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HERE. POSSIBLE COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THU: HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. TEMPS STAY SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF A LOW CEILING AT GRI AND EAR...AND PERHAPS SOME
FOG CLOSER TO GRI.

FOG AND STRATUS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS LONG SINCE DIMINISHED AND
AS OF 2350Z...NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL
EXIST OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE OVERWHELMINGLY SUGGESTS NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THAT SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF LIMITED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION IN THE 295-300K LAYER WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
EVEN THEN...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY SUCH STRATUS SHOULD...FOR THE
MOST PART...REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF BOTH KGRI AND KEAR. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL AT
BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DID KEEP A MENTION OF
SCT007 06-15Z TO GIVE A HINT OF POTENTIAL STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAN NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE REALIZED. THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE
DOING SO DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE STRATUS AND FOG FROM EARLIER
TODAY REALLY RESTRICTED TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM CLIMBING VERY
FAR AND AS A RESULT...THE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY QUICKLY MEET ITS
DEW POINT LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID...THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN WIND...AS WELL AS DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SUGGEST IT WILL
BE HARD TO MAINTAIN FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME
IT SEEMS EAR IS JUST TOO FAR NORTHWEST TO OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TONIGHT. GRI SEEMS TO BE ON THE PERIPHERY
AND COULD STILL BE CLIPPED BY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A MENTION OF 6SM IN BR 06-15Z. FINALLY...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ~25KT JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH GRI AND EAR
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER
30KTS AND THUS...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS NOT PLACED IN EITHER
TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 232347 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
647 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND BEYOND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...THEN IF ANY RECORD HIGHS WILL FALL
TOMORROW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND PUSHING
HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SFC HAVE HELPED MIX OUT THE LL MOISTURE FROM THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER STILL HAVE AN AREA FROM KMCK TO KBBW AND TO THE
EAST WHERE DEW PTS ARE STILL IN THE 50S. WE ALSO HAVE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY FOG FORECAST.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE RICH
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE ZONES...AM EXPECTING SOME FOG TO REDEVELOP.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WITH THE SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT...NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WITH KBBW STILL SEEING A DEW PT IN
THE 50S...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS IN THE 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR FOG WHERE DEW PTS STILL AROUND 50 OR
ABOVE. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THE SW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
DRYING TO OCCUR AND KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DENSE...THUS WILL HAVE ONLY PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

TOMORROW A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE /CIRRUS/ IS PUSHED NORTH RESULTING WITH SUNNY SKIES.
THUS TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY CLIMB IN THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE A
DELAY IF ANY FOG LINGERS IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY QUICK MIXING. GFS IS THE MOST
AMBITIOUS MIXING TOMORROW AND AS A RESULT HAS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES. LATELY WE HAVE MIXED WELL AND MODELS HAVE BEEN COOL ON
HIGHS...THUS FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE WARMEST MAV GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH SW NEB
INTO THE MID 80S. RECORDS FOR TOMORROW ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SO WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSOURI BASIN. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS SATURDAY WHICH LIMITS VERTICAL MIXING ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS
SATURDAY RISE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO NEAR 80 SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTN.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF EAST INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS SHOW A BAND OF STRATUS FORMING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT. A LOW PRESS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD LIFT
THIS FRONT AND THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MORNING
WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SD DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN THE
STRONG THERMAL FORCING AND WEST WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 80S SHOULD
OCCUR BUT THE GUIDANCE IS LAGGING HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 70S IN MANY
AREAS. COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTN
AND THE MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH THIS FEATURE.

OTHER THAN THE STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. A CHECK ON CIRRUS IN THE MODELS INDICATES THESE CLOUDS
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS THE JET AFFECTS THAT
AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 20S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. SOME COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY AGAIN OVER NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KLBF SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE KLBF TAF FOR NOW. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
EXPECTED AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 232324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING COULD POSE AN IMPACT.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS AREA CONTINUED TO
SHRINK WITH ONLY A SMALL PATCH IN SCNTRL NEBR AT 1930Z. A WEAK
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEBR TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD HELP LIMIT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
STRATUS WILL EXPAND OR REDEVELOP OVER THE FA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 17Z HRRR/RAP INDICATED AREA WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE NEAR MO RIVER AND INTO WRN IA ALTHOUGH FORMER MODEL HAD BEEN
STEADILY DECREASING THAT NOTION LAST FEW UPDATES. ANY LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD THEN SHIFT NE AS SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
A GOES FOG PRODUCT SIMULATOR FROM CSU SUGGESTED MUCH OF THE FA
COULD GET SOCKED BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS IF NOT FOG TOO. ALTHOUGH
ONLY A PATCHY FOG MENTION WILL BE MADE DUE TO THE INCREASED BLYR
WINDS...DID INCREASE SKY COVER TONIGHT TO REFLECT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF ST AND THEN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS MORE CI LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HOWEVER...AIRMASS WARMS INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK
WAVE PASSES AND FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON ANY STRATUS MIXING OUT
OR SHIFTING NE OF THE FA EARLY IN THE DAY. NO BIG CHANGE FROM PREV
FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH DID BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY A BIT...MAINLY NORTH AS SHIFT TO NW WINDS COULD PROVIDE A
BIT BETTER MIXING TO COUNTER WEAK COOL ADVECTION IN AFTN.

SATURDAY STILL SHOULD BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE
MILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN NRN PLAINS BEHIND WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA.

ALTHOUGH UPPER HGTS BEGIN FALLING ACROSS PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF
NEXT TROUGH...MILD AIR SPREADS BACK NORTHEAST WHICH COULD
CONCEIVABLY PRODUCE MAX TEMPS AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME HINT AT STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING...KEPT
READINGS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW THOSE EXPECTED FRIDAY...MAINLY
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PASSAGE OF NEXT TROUGH APPEARS IT WILL BE A TOUCH SLOWER THAN IT
LOOKED LIKE YDA. THIS SHOULD RESTRICT PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY WRN
ZONES MONDAY BUT ALSO LINGER SOME CHC ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW POPS WERE KEPT IN SLGT CHC OR
LOWER CHC RANGES. WITH THE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAX TEMPS
WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.

COOLER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY BEHIND TROUGH/FRONT IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODEL SMOOTHING/BLENDING
PRODUCED UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S MOST AREAS THOSE THREE DAYS...WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WITH A WAVE ON WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN
TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY HIGHER THEN. ALSO MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
COLDER ON THURSDAY BEHIND THIS NEXT WEAK WAVE. BOTH OF WHICH
SHOULD WORK THEMSELVES OUT IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING REMAINS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. THEN THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z.
CIGS BELOW FL010 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEAR 18Z...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 12KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KGID 232056
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
356 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE DETERMINING
CHANCE OF FOG AND STRATUS. ALSO WE ARE LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY LOW
ENOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BRING UP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

STRATUS AND FOG TOOK A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE CWA TODAY AS AN UPPER
SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY PAINTING A CLEAR AND FOG FREE NIGHT...BUT SINCE WE HAD
STRATUS LINGER SO LONG INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
CWA...I HAVE A STRONG SUSPICION THAT MODELS ARE VERY WRONG. BASED ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...I WILL HAVE TO STRAY FAR FROM MODELS HERE AND
INTRODUCE A CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE. AREAS ALONG THE EDGE OF STRATUS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO
DENSE FOG. THE SREF DOES INDICATE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN
THE CWA TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SYNTHETIC GOES-R IMAGERY FROM THE WRF-
ARW. I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SKY COVER...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH/CENTRAL DUE TO ANTICIPATED LINGERING STRATUS...DESPITE THE
RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL BE OCCURRING. IT STILL SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY WARM DAY.

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...THE LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WHERE WE COULD DROP DOWN TO NEAR
20 PERCENT. THIS WILL HINGE A LOT ON HOW MUCH STRATUS MAY HANG
AROUND...WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND DEW POINTS A LITTLE
HIGHER...RAISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ALSO...BY THE TIME HUMIDITY
BECOMES POTENTIALLY LOW ENOUGH TO BE A POSSIBLE ISSUE...WIND SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH
THESE THINGS IN MIND...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE MUCH OF A FIRE
WEATHER ISSUE FOR THURSDAY...SO I AM NOT MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN: THE MULTI-DAY 500 MB ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM
THE ECMWF/JMA ALL INDICATE SOME PROGRESSION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LONGWAVES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE CNTRL USA RIDGE WILL RELOCATE
INTO THE ERN USA...ALLOWING THE E PACIFIC TROF TO MOVE TO THE W
COAST. THE NCEP/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE...KEEPING
THE TROF OVER THE E PACIFIC AND TRYING TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A TROF
OVER THE CNTRL USA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO HAVE
MEMBERS IN BOTH CAMPS. SO NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL OF WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE
...BUT THE EC/JMA IS PREFERRED. THIS IS ALSO THE CPC PREFERENCE.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EC DID COME IN MUCH SIMILAR TO THE
GFS.

THIS SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL CONT TO AVERAGE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS /SEE THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS/...BUT THERE
WILL BE INTERRUPTIONS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH A DAY OR TWO OF
BELOW NORMAL AUTUMN CHILL. BOTTOM LINE IS NO BIG/EXTENDED COOLDOWN
ARE FORESEEN HERE THRU THE END OF THE MONTH AND PROBABLY THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOV AS WELL.

IF THE TROF DOES EVOLVE ALONG THE W COAST...CONDITIONS WOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME RAIN IN EARLY NOV WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE
ERN USA CIRCULATING GULF AIR NORTHWARD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC
8-14 DAY LOOK...WITH PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS
THE E PACIFIC TROF GETS KICKED ONSHORE. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUN
WITH THE TROF PASSAGE MON-TUE. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AT
00Z/TUE. THE NON-GFS MODELS ARE ALL APPRECIABLY DEEPER WITH THE
KICKER TROF WITH HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OF 130M. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE POTENCY OF THE TROF MOVING THRU HERE MON-TUE. NW FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP TUE WITH ZONAL FLOW WED BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO BUILDING
HEIGHTS OCCURS THU.

SURFACE: A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU FRI NIGHT AND BRIEFLY
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR I-70 SAT...AS WEAK HIGH PRES QUICKLY RACES
THRU THE NRN PLAINS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W. IT WILL FORCE THE WRN END OF THE FRONT TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SUN. THE NEXT COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TUE WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING WED AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE E. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL
BE HEADING E ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. ITS COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO
MOVE THRU HERE WED.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: UNEVENTFUL/DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLED THE PREVIOUS
FCST BY 1-3F SINCE THE FRONTAL TROF WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATING.

SAT: CONTINUED VERY NICE WITH SUBSIDENCE/RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGH PRES
SLIDES BY TO THE N. NOT AN APPRECIABLE COOLDOWN S OF HWY 6. TEMPS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRI. ANOTHER DAY OF A SOLID 10-15F
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING: AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE FCST SHOULD BE
DRY. A 40KT LOW-LVL JET WILL DEVELOP AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ASCENT SHOULD MOISTEN THE LOW-LVLS ENOUGH TO CREATE AN INSTABILITY
BURST AND POSSIBLE MID-LVL SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CINH...BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL PRODUCES. MUCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE IF ACCAS
CAN FORM.

ONLY ONE 09Z SREF MEMBER OUTPUTS MEASUREABLE QPF. THE 00Z/06Z/12Z
GFS CONT TO DO THE SAME BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A WEAKNESS IN ITS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME AS IT HAS NO DEEP MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN.
A QUICK CHECK OF THE 15Z SREF AND ITS DRY.

SUN: SOME MID-LVL ACCAS MAY BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY.

SUN NIGHT: A DECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL DELIVER
THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN SINCE THE 17TH-18TH.

MON: COLD AIR ADVECTION. BREEZY AND COOLER. TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR POST FRONTAL
SHWRS.

SHOWERS: "BEST" CHANCE 4 PM MON-4 AM TUE TIME FRAME. RAINFALL AMTS
LOOK VERY LIGHT. 00Z EC ENSEMBLE 24 HR QPF PROBABILITIES FOR .10
ENDING 12Z/TUE ARE LOW. ONLY 20-30%...LOWEST SE THIRD OF THE FCST
AREA. 40% FAR NW FROM LXN-ORD.

TUE: TROF OVERHEAD. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FCST AND TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLIER THAN NORMAL. THAT HAS BEEN AN INFREQUENT OCCURRENCE THIS
MONTH.

THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP AT GRI IS RUNNING 1.9 ABOVE NORMAL BUT THAT
ACCOUNTS FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EACH CALENDAR DAY.

WED: TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL HERE. POSSIBLE COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THU: HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. TEMPS STAY SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING VISIBILITY AND ESPECIALLY CEILING.
MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL WITH EITHER. BASED LARGELY ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...VISIBILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WAY UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO SCATTER. SINCE THERE WILL
BE NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN...IF IT DOES MANAGE TO SCATTER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY. IT IS A TOUGH CALL FOR CEILING HEIGHT AND HOW
LOW VISIBILITY WILL DROP...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE DENSE
FOG AND CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORY...MUCH LIKE WE HAD LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 232018
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND BEYOND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...THEN IF ANY RECORD HIGHS WILL FALL
TOMORROW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND PUSHING
HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SFC HAVE HELPED MIX OUT THE LL MOISTURE FROM THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER STILL HAVE AN AREA FROM KMCK TO KBBW AND TO THE
EAST WHERE DEW PTS ARE STILL IN THE 50S. WE ALSO HAVE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY FOG FORECAST.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE RICH
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE ZONES...AM EXPECTING SOME FOG TO REDEVELOP.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WITH THE SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT...NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WITH KBBW STILL SEEING A DEW PT IN
THE 50S...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS IN THE 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR FOG WHERE DEW PTS STILL AROUND 50 OR
ABOVE. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THE SW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
DRYING TO OCCUR AND KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DENSE...THUS WILL HAVE ONLY PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

TOMORROW A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE /CIRRUS/ IS PUSHED NORTH RESULTING WITH SUNNY SKIES.
THUS TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY CLIMB IN THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE A
DELAY IF ANY FOG LINGERS IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY QUICK MIXING. GFS IS THE MOST
AMBITIOUS MIXING TOMORROW AND AS A RESULT HAS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES. LATELY WE HAVE MIXED WELL AND MODELS HAVE BEEN COOL ON
HIGHS...THUS FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE WARMEST MAV GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH SW NEB
INTO THE MID 80S. RECORDS FOR TOMORROW ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SO WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSOURI BASIN. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS SATURDAY WHICH LIMITS VERTICAL MIXING ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS
SATURDAY RISE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO NEAR 80 SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTN.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF EAST INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS SHOW A BAND OF STRATUS FORMING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT. A LOW PRESS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD LIFT
THIS FRONT AND THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MORNING
WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SD DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN THE
STRONG THERMAL FORCING AND WEST WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 80S SHOULD
OCCUR BUT THE GUIDANCE IS LAGGING HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 70S IN MANY
AREAS. COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTN
AND THE MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH THIS FEATURE.

OTHER THAN THE STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. A CHECK ON CIRRUS IN THE MODELS INDICATES THESE CLOUDS
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS THE JET AFFECTS THAT
AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 20S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GOOD MIXING TODAY
ALONG WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL NOT GET TRAPPED IN
THE BL. ALL MOS GUIDANCE AND MODELS SUPPORT ONLY SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KOAX 232001
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
301 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING COULD POSE AN IMPACT.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS AREA CONTINUED TO
SHRINK WITH ONLY A SMALL PATCH IN SCNTRL NEBR AT 1930Z. A WEAK
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEBR TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD HELP LIMIT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
STRATUS WILL EXPAND OR REDEVELOP OVER THE FA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 17Z HRRR/RAP INDICATED AREA WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE NEAR MO RIVER AND INTO WRN IA ALTHOUGH FORMER MODEL HAD BEEN
STEADILY DECREASING THAT NOTION LAST FEW UPDATES. ANY LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD THEN SHIFT NE AS SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
A GOES FOG PRODUCT SIMULATOR FROM CSU SUGGESTED MUCH OF THE FA
COULD GET SOCKED BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS IF NOT FOG TOO. ALTHOUGH
ONLY A PATCHY FOG MENTION WILL BE MADE DUE TO THE INCREASED BLYR
WINDS...DID INCREASE SKY COVER TONIGHT TO REFLECT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF ST AND THEN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS MORE CI LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HOWEVER...AIRMASS WARMS INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK
WAVE PASSES AND FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON ANY STRATUS MIXING OUT
OR SHIFTING NE OF THE FA EARLY IN THE DAY. NO BIG CHANGE FROM PREV
FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH DID BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY A BIT...MAINLY NORTH AS SHIFT TO NW WINDS COULD PROVIDE A
BIT BETTER MIXING TO COUNTER WEAK COOL ADVECTION IN AFTN.

SATURDAY STILL SHOULD BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE
MILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN NRN PLAINS BEHIND WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA.

ALTHOUGH UPPER HGTS BEGIN FALLING ACROSS PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF
NEXT TROUGH...MILD AIR SPREADS BACK NORTHEAST WHICH COULD
CONCEIVABLY PRODUCE MAX TEMPS AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME HINT AT STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING...KEPT
READINGS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW THOSE EXPECTED FRIDAY...MAINLY
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PASSAGE OF NEXT TROUGH APPEARS IT WILL BE A TOUCH SLOWER THAN IT
LOOKED LIKE YDA. THIS SHOULD RESTRICT PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY WRN
ZONES MONDAY BUT ALSO LINGER SOME CHC ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW POPS WERE KEPT IN SLGT CHC OR
LOWER CHC RANGES. WITH THE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAX TEMPS
WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.

COOLER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY BEHIND TROUGH/FRONT IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODEL SMOOTHING/BLENDING
PRODUCED UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S MOST AREAS THOSE THREE DAYS...WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WITH A WAVE ON WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN
TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY HIGHER THEN. ALSO MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
COLDER ON THURSDAY BEHIND THIS NEXT WEAK WAVE. BOTH OF WHICH
SHOULD WORK THEMSELVES OUT IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING REMAINS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KLNK BUT SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 19Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT KOMA/KLNK. AM THINKING THAT THERE IS
SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT...BUT THAT COULD ALSO BE TEMPERED
BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT ALL THREE SITES FROM 07-14Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 231845
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
145 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT
WAS EXTENDED IN TIME AGAIN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG STUBBORNLY CLINGING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF STRATUS VERY SLOWLY ERODING TODAY...MAKING
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DIFFICULT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 23
2014

WELL...SO MUCH FOR POSSIBLY BEING ABLE TO KEEP A HANDFUL OF OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MAINLY OVER THE PAST 60-90 MINUTES...SEVERAL AREAS DOWN HIGHWAY
81 FROM YORK-HEBRON AND DOWN INTO JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KS
HAVE STARTED TO TANK DOWN TO AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS PER AUTOMATED
OBS AND SEVERAL PHONE CALLS. THIS REALLY SHOULDN/T BE A SURPRISE
AS EVEN THOUGH THIS PARTICULAR AREA WAS NOT WELL-CAPTURED BY THE
HRRR/RAP13 VISIBILITY PROGS...THE AMBIENT CONDITIONS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLED FOG READILY FORMED THERE AS WELL. ON A SIDE NOTE...ALTHOUGH
DENSE FOG IS OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON AROUND HERE...ITS
NOT EVERYDAY THAT LITERALLY ALL 13 PRIMARY AUTOMATED AIRPORT
ASOS/AWOS SITES WITHIN OUR CWA (ALONG WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST
OUTSIDE OUR CWA) REPORT VISIBILITY OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
THE SAME TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING VISIBILITY AND ESPECIALLY CEILING.
MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL WITH EITHER. BASED LARGELY ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...VISIBILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WAY UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO SCATTER. SINCE THERE WILL
BE NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN...IF IT DOES MANAGE TO SCATTER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY. IT IS A TOUGH CALL FOR CEILING HEIGHT AND HOW
LOW VISIBILITY WILL DROP...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE DENSE
FOG AND CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORY...MUCH LIKE WE HAD LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 231845
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
145 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT
WAS EXTENDED IN TIME AGAIN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG STUBBORNLY CLINGING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF STRATUS VERY SLOWLY ERODING TODAY...MAKING
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DIFFICULT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 23
2014

WELL...SO MUCH FOR POSSIBLY BEING ABLE TO KEEP A HANDFUL OF OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MAINLY OVER THE PAST 60-90 MINUTES...SEVERAL AREAS DOWN HIGHWAY
81 FROM YORK-HEBRON AND DOWN INTO JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KS
HAVE STARTED TO TANK DOWN TO AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS PER AUTOMATED
OBS AND SEVERAL PHONE CALLS. THIS REALLY SHOULDN/T BE A SURPRISE
AS EVEN THOUGH THIS PARTICULAR AREA WAS NOT WELL-CAPTURED BY THE
HRRR/RAP13 VISIBILITY PROGS...THE AMBIENT CONDITIONS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLED FOG READILY FORMED THERE AS WELL. ON A SIDE NOTE...ALTHOUGH
DENSE FOG IS OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON AROUND HERE...ITS
NOT EVERYDAY THAT LITERALLY ALL 13 PRIMARY AUTOMATED AIRPORT
ASOS/AWOS SITES WITHIN OUR CWA (ALONG WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST
OUTSIDE OUR CWA) REPORT VISIBILITY OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
THE SAME TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING VISIBILITY AND ESPECIALLY CEILING.
MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL WITH EITHER. BASED LARGELY ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...VISIBILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WAY UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO SCATTER. SINCE THERE WILL
BE NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN...IF IT DOES MANAGE TO SCATTER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY. IT IS A TOUGH CALL FOR CEILING HEIGHT AND HOW
LOW VISIBILITY WILL DROP...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE DENSE
FOG AND CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORY...MUCH LIKE WE HAD LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 231758
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1258 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WELL...SO MUCH FOR POSSIBLY BEING ABLE TO KEEP A HANDFUL OF OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MAINLY OVER THE PAST 60-90 MINUTES...SEVERAL AREAS DOWN HIGHWAY
81 FROM YORK-HEBRON AND DOWN INTO JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KS
HAVE STARTED TO TANK DOWN TO AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS PER AUTOMATED
OBS AND SEVERAL PHONE CALLS. THIS REALLY SHOULDN/T BE A SURPRISE
AS EVEN THOUGH THIS PARTICULAR AREA WAS NOT WELL-CAPTURED BY THE
HRRR/RAP13 VISIBILITY PROGS...THE AMBIENT CONDITIONS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLED FOG READILY FORMED THERE AS WELL. ON A SIDE NOTE...ALTHOUGH
DENSE FOG IS OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON AROUND HERE...ITS
NOT EVERYDAY THAT LITERALLY ALL 13 PRIMARY AUTOMATED AIRPORT
ASOS/AWOS SITES WITHIN OUR CWA (ALONG WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST
OUTSIDE OUR CWA) REPORT VISIBILITY OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
THE SAME TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING VISIBILITY AND ESPECIALLY CEILING.
MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL WITH EITHER. BASED LARGELY ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...VISIBILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WAY UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO SCATTER. SINCE THERE WILL
BE NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN...IF IT DOES MANAGE TO SCATTER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY. IT IS A TOUGH CALL FOR CEILING HEIGHT AND HOW
LOW VISIBILITY WILL DROP...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE DENSE
FOG AND CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORY...MUCH LIKE WE HAD LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039-040-
     046-047-060>062-072>076-082>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 231758
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1258 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WELL...SO MUCH FOR POSSIBLY BEING ABLE TO KEEP A HANDFUL OF OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MAINLY OVER THE PAST 60-90 MINUTES...SEVERAL AREAS DOWN HIGHWAY
81 FROM YORK-HEBRON AND DOWN INTO JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KS
HAVE STARTED TO TANK DOWN TO AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS PER AUTOMATED
OBS AND SEVERAL PHONE CALLS. THIS REALLY SHOULDN/T BE A SURPRISE
AS EVEN THOUGH THIS PARTICULAR AREA WAS NOT WELL-CAPTURED BY THE
HRRR/RAP13 VISIBILITY PROGS...THE AMBIENT CONDITIONS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLED FOG READILY FORMED THERE AS WELL. ON A SIDE NOTE...ALTHOUGH
DENSE FOG IS OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON AROUND HERE...ITS
NOT EVERYDAY THAT LITERALLY ALL 13 PRIMARY AUTOMATED AIRPORT
ASOS/AWOS SITES WITHIN OUR CWA (ALONG WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST
OUTSIDE OUR CWA) REPORT VISIBILITY OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
THE SAME TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING VISIBILITY AND ESPECIALLY CEILING.
MODELS ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL WITH EITHER. BASED LARGELY ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION...VISIBILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WAY UP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO SCATTER. SINCE THERE WILL
BE NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY
RETURN...IF IT DOES MANAGE TO SCATTER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY. IT IS A TOUGH CALL FOR CEILING HEIGHT AND HOW
LOW VISIBILITY WILL DROP...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE DENSE
FOG AND CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORY...MUCH LIKE WE HAD LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039-040-
     046-047-060>062-072>076-082>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 231722
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1222 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NOW THAT THE FOG HAS BURNED OFF...TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE. DROPPED TEMPS ONE CATEGORY ALONG I80 WHERE
CLOUDS HELD AND MAY KEEP THAT AREA FROM REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
AREAS NORTH AND SOUTH STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY A BIT ON THE EASTERN EDGE AND
EXTENDED IT AN HOUR LONGER...UNTIL 10 AM. OTHER MINOR CHANGES
TO SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH
AND EAST AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z.

OTHERWISE...PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY AND QUITE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN BEGINS TO TURN COOLER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF MODELS. EURO AND GFS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON-TUE...BUT DIVERGE AGAIN AFTER
THAT WITH GFS MAINTAINING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE EURO
BECOMES ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KLNK BUT SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 19Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT KOMA/KLNK. AM THINKING THAT THERE IS
SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT...BUT THAT COULD ALSO BE TEMPERED
BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT ALL THREE SITES FROM 07-14Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KLBF 231632
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING
PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE
VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN
FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW. BASED ON ROAD
CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR LOCATIONS
ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA
TO 44 AT NORTH PLATTE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG IS FINALLY LIFTING...WITH VIS SAT...SFC OBS AND WEB CAMERAS
SHOWING IMPROVING VISIBILITIES/CONDITIONS. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS EXPIRED FOR ALL AND SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCREASE OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM
SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING.
DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE
FCST...TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE
TO FOG AND EXPECTED CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY.
WITH THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME.

MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GOOD MIXING TODAY
ALONG WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL NOT GET TRAPPED IN
THE BL. ALL MOS GUIDANCE AND MODELS SUPPORT ONLY SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KOAX 231210 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
710 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY A BIT ON THE EASTERN EDGE AND
EXTENDED IT AN HOUR LONGER...UNTIL 10 AM. OTHER MINOR CHANGES
TO SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH
AND EAST AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z.

OTHERWISE...PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY AND QUITE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN BEGINS TO TURN COOLER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF MODELS. EURO AND GFS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON-TUE...BUT DIVERGE AGAIN AFTER
THAT WITH GFS MAINTAINING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE EURO
BECOMES ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING
THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG MAY MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO GO WITH ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT
CLOSER WITH THE 18Z TAFS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042>044-050-065-078-088.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KGID 231159
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WELL...SO MUCH FOR POSSIBLY BEING ABLE TO KEEP A HANDFUL OF OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MAINLY OVER THE PAST 60-90 MINUTES...SEVERAL AREAS DOWN HIGHWAY
81 FROM YORK-HEBRON AND DOWN INTO JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KS
HAVE STARTED TO TANK DOWN TO AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS PER AUTOMATED
OBS AND SEVERAL PHONE CALLS. THIS REALLY SHOULDN/T BE A SURPRISE
AS EVEN THOUGH THIS PARTICULAR AREA WAS NOT WELL-CAPTURED BY THE
HRRR/RAP13 VISIBILITY PROGS...THE AMBIENT CONDITIONS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLED FOG READILY FORMED THERE AS WELL. ON A SIDE NOTE...ALTHOUGH
DENSE FOG IS OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON AROUND HERE...ITS
NOT EVERYDAY THAT LITERALLY ALL 13 PRIMARY AUTOMATED AIRPORT
ASOS/AWOS SITES WITHIN OUR CWA (ALONG WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST
OUTSIDE OUR CWA) REPORT VISIBILITY OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
THE SAME TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

BY FAR THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE IS THE ONGOING/RATHER WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG WITHIN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA RESULTING IN
LIFR/VLIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
SHAKY ON THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS...OPTED TO STAY
THE COURSE WITH PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCES IN RETURNING VISIBILITY TO
VFR AROUND 16Z AND ALSO RAISING CEILING TO MVFR AT THIS TIME. THEN
IN THE 19Z-20Z TIME FRAME THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ADVERTISED A RETURN
TO VFR CEILING AS WELL. STAY TUNED FOR PLENTY OF POTENTIAL
ADJUSTMENTS HERE. ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE/MAINLY LIGHT FOG PROBABLY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY AGAIN TONIGHT...THE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE ONLY
HINTED AT LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG WITH A LOW-END VFR VISIBILITY AND
LOW SCATTERED CLOUD MENTION FOR NOW. ALSO LATE TONIGHT...LATER
SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER WHETHER A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)
MENTION MAY BE WARRANTED...AS INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 1000 FT AGL COULD CREATE AROUND 30KT OF BULK SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THIS LEVEL. THIS SEEMED TOO
MARGINAL A WIND SHEAR EVENT FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. AT LEAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE
REGIME THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT AT SUSTAINED
SPEEDS GENERALLY ONLY AROUND 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 231134
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
634 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WELL...SO MUCH FOR POSSIBLY BEING ABLE TO KEEP A HANDFUL OF OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MAINLY OVER THE PAST 60-90 MINUTES...SEVERAL AREAS DOWN HIGHWAY
81 FROM YORK-HEBRON AND DOWN INTO JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KS
HAVE STARTED TO TANK DOWN TO AROUND 1/4 MILE OR LESS PER AUTOMATED
OBS AND SEVERAL PHONE CALLS. THIS REALLY SHOULDN/T BE A SURPRISE
AS EVEN THOUGH THIS PARTICULAR AREA WAS NOT WELL-CAPTURED BY THE
HRRR/RAP13 VISIBILITY PROGS...THE AMBIENT CONDITIONS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLED FOG READILY FORMED THERE AS WELL. ON A SIDE NOTE...ALTHOUGH
DENSE FOG IS OBVIOUSLY NOT ALL THAT UNCOMMON AROUND HERE...ITS
NOT EVERYDAY THAT LITERALLY ALL 13 PRIMARY AUTOMATED AIRPORT
ASOS/AWOS SITES WITHIN OUR CWA (ALONG WITH SEVERAL SITES JUST
OUTSIDE OUR CWA) REPORT VISIBILITY OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
THE SAME TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...BY FAR THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE IS THE ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE AREA RESULTING IN LIFR/VLIFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING. THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THESE
VERY POOR CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN WELL PAST
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE AIMED THINGS ON A MORE PESSIMISTIC
NOTE WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 16Z...AND EVEN
THEN AT LEAST AN MVFR CEILING HANGING TOUGH INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND MID-
MORNING IS ADMITTEDLY RATHER LOW. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 231131
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
NOTED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY
UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND
ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON ROAD CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA TO
44 AT NORTH PLATTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE FCST...TRENDED HIGHS
TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE TO FOG AND EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE
UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.

MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 14Z WITH CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED
VISIBILITY THEREAFTER. VISBYS WITH FOG...WILL BE
VARIABLE...RANGING FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038-059-071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KOAX 231121
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH
AND EAST AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z.

OTHERWISE...PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY AND QUITE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN BEGINS TO TURN COOLER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF MODELS. EURO AND GFS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON-TUE...BUT DIVERGE AGAIN AFTER
THAT WITH GFS MAINTAINING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE EURO
BECOMES ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING
THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG MAY MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO GO WITH ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT
CLOSER WITH THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>032-042.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KGID 230945
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...BY FAR THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE IS THE ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE AREA RESULTING IN LIFR/VLIFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING. THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THESE
VERY POOR CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN WELL PAST
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE AIMED THINGS ON A MORE PESSIMISTIC
NOTE WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 16Z...AND EVEN
THEN AT LEAST AN MVFR CEILING HANGING TOUGH INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND MID-
MORNING IS ADMITTEDLY RATHER LOW. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>063-072>076-082>086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-006-
     017-018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 230945
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE HAS NOW TURNED TO WIDESPREAD FOG FOR THIS
MORNING (MUCH OF WHICH IS DENSE)...AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS REGARDING JUST HOW LONG THIS FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
LAST AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT MIGHT HAVE ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A MORE LIMITED/PATCHY
ROUND OF FOG COULD AGAIN MATERIALIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE
OPTED AGAINST FORECAST INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MIXED AND
INHOSPITABLE TO WIDESPREAD ISSUES.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 09Z/4AM...ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTFUL FOG WAS RECOGNIZED HERE 24 HOURS
AGO...KUDOS TO PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FOR HITTING THE THROTTLE HARDER
WITH IT...AS A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES AROUND/LESS THAN 1/4 MILE PER AUTOMATED
AIRPORT OBS AND HIGHWAY CAMS...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH 16Z/11AM. AT LEAST SO
FAR...MAINLY ONLY THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM YORK-HEBRON-
BELOIT SEEM TO BE MISSING OUT ON WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ISSUES...LIKELY IN PART TO HOLDING UP A BIT WARMER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD FROM YESTERDAY/S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SHORT-TERM MODELED VISIBILITY FROM THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR
SUGGEST WE MAY GET AWAY WITHOUT NEEDING TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. OBVIOUSLY TWO OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN
FOG FORMATION WERE FRESHLY WET GROUND FROM WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY (WHICH NEARED OR EXCEEDED 1 INCH IN A BIT MORE OF THE
AREA THAN EXPECTED) AND VERY LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM BREEZES ALONG THE
AXIS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT HAS ESSENTIALLY WASHED OUT ACROSS
THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING APPEAR TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL...WITH A DECENT RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 50S SOUTHEAST. IN THE BIG
PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS NOW JUST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S
RAIN...WITH THIS AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NUMBER ONE ISSUE
AND QUESTION IS HOW LONG DOES DENSE FOG LINGER...AND COULD LOW
STRATUS STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAMPER HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN CWA.

BASED ON THE USUALLY FAIRLY-RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELED VISIBILITY
FROM THE HRRR/RAP13...IT MAY BE WELL INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE AN APPRECIABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE CWA SHAKES FREE OF
WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES. AS A RESULT...OPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY
TIME AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER THAN "USUAL" TO 16Z/11AM...AS WOULD
RATHER HAVE DAY SHIFT BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOME COUNTIES EARLY THAN
HAVE TO ISSUE EXTENSIONS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS FOG IS LIKELY
FAIRLY SHALLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
A RAPID FOG DISSIPATION GIVEN APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND ONLY VERY WEAK MIXING AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA AND KEEPS BREEZES VERY LIGHT. EVENTUALLY
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...A STEADIER 5-10 MPH SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL KICK IN...IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THESE SORT OF SITUATIONS MAKE FOR VERY
TRICKY SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
IS FOR PLENTY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO NO-WORSE-THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE EARLIEST CLEARING MIGHT VERY WELL TARGET THE WESTERN CWA FIRST
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EAST LAST. ADDING TO THE TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY IS A NOTABLE 10-ISH DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NAM MET
(COOLER) AND GFS MAV (WARMER) NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. IF
ANYTHING...HAVE PROBABLY AIMED FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE BY LOWERING 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EAST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID-70S FAR WEST. THERE COULD BE AT LEAST SOME MODEST COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILL EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED FAIRLY WEAK
DISTURBANCES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF
A BROAD MID-UPPER RIDGE EDGING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS/CANADA BRUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE INHOSPITABLE TO IMPACTFUL FOG FORMATION AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOME FAIRLY STEADY AT 5-10 MPH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AS SOMEWHAT STRANGELY THE
06Z NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCT IS HITTING PARTS OF THE CWA HARDER THAN
SEEMS JUSTIFIED LATE TONIGHT. THANKS MAINLY TO THE STEADIER
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES UPWARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST
AREAS...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA UP IN THE LOW-MID 50S EXCEPT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SOME 40S IN FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SUGGESTS A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND
OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS.

SO...SPECIFICALLY...WE EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY
SPRINKLES AT BEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 25% THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CURRENTLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 MPH
OR LESS. SO...CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION
OF ANY FIRE DANGER AT THIS POINT...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...BY FAR THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE IS THE ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE AREA RESULTING IN LIFR/VLIFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING. THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THESE
VERY POOR CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN WELL PAST
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE AIMED THINGS ON A MORE PESSIMISTIC
NOTE WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 16Z...AND EVEN
THEN AT LEAST AN MVFR CEILING HANGING TOUGH INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND MID-
MORNING IS ADMITTEDLY RATHER LOW. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>063-072>076-082>086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-006-
     017-018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 230854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
NOTED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY
UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND
ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON ROAD CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA TO
44 AT NORTH PLATTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE FCST...TRENDED HIGHS
TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE TO FOG AND EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE
UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.

MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AREAS OF FOG WERE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND GENERALLY EAST
OF A NORTH PLATTE KLBF TO VALENTINE KVTN. HAVE INCLUDED FOG IN KLBF
TAF SITE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM KBBW TO KONL. LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DISSIPATING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038-059-071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH
AND EAST AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z.

OTHERWISE...PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY AND QUITE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN BEGINS TO TURN COOLER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF MODELS. EURO AND GFS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON-TUE...BUT DIVERGE AGAIN AFTER
THAT WITH GFS MAINTAINING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE EURO
BECOMES ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
AS VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SLIDE EAST...AN EXPANDING AREA OF FOG WILL
SPREAD EAST AS WELL. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
LOW TO GO IN REGARDS TO CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT OUR TAF
SITES...HOWEVER LIGHT WIND AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
EVENING RAIN WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION. WILL LEAVE TO AMENDMENTS IF
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW IFR OR BECOME LIFR.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>032-042.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230640
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
140 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS AND GRIDS. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO MID MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WRN NEBR PER EARLY AFTN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS KICKING OFF AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT 20Z...FM NEAR WAYNE TO JUST WEST THEN SW
OF COLUMBUS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COOL FRONT THAT
WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES...OR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH...E THROUGH
THE FA TONIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. PER
HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/HRRR CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE SPREAD FROM W
TO EAST THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING WITH SOME TRAILING
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR FRONT KEEPING POPS
IN FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES.
WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP AND ASSOCD CLOUDS MOVING INTO OR EVEN EAST
OF FAR SERN ZONES BY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND AREAS OF SUCH WERE MAINTAINED.

THE REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY. A TRAILING WAVE ON THURSDAY
COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND WITH WEAK WINDS...MIXING
COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD EITHER BE EARLY
...LINGERING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SE...OR ARRIVING LATER IN
THE AFTN WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. ALSO AIRMASS SEEMS WARM ENOUGH THAT
HIGHS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S SHOULD AT LEAST BE OBSERVED PER NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO NEAR 900 MB AT KOMA.

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH BULK OF SUCH WOULD APPEAR TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA WHICH COULD LIMIT
MAX TEMPS IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FRIDAY BEING QUITE MILD. SWRLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MID/LOWER CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH LITTLE OR NO COOL ADVECTION FRIDAY AS WAVE TRAVELS ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER MOST AREAS.

WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE AND N/NERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTN
SHOULD BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE REGION. STILL APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REACH AT LEAST LOWER 70S PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS NOT
MUCH MIXING WAS NEEDED TO REACH THAT LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY STRONG...COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE ON
SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND COULD KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR
SATURDAYS LEVEL. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FROM EARLIER
FORECAST/MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF FLOW TURNS MORE SWRLY OR EVEN
SRLY COULD SEE NEED FOR BOOSTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH NEXT TROUGH CROSSING
THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH 12Z RUNS GENERATED LITTLE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR FA. DID MENTION SLGT CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS APPARENT CURRENT SMALL CHANCE. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE FA...BUT COOL ADVECTION WAS
DELAYED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A LITTLE WARMER READINGS...SPCLY SE...ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
AS VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SLIDE EAST...AN EXPANDING AREA OF FOG WILL
SPREAD EAST AS WELL. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
LOW TO GO IN REGARDS TO CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT OUR TAF
SITES...HOWEVER LIGHT WIND AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
EVENING RAIN WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION. WILL LEAVE TO AMENDMENTS IF
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW IFR OR BECOME LIFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>032-042.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KGID 230622
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
122 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...HAVE DEVOTED THE VAST MAJORITY OF ATTENTION SO
FAR ON THIS SHIFT TO ONGOING/IMMINENT FOG ISSUES. WILL OBVIOUSLY
PROVIDE MORE DETAIL ON THE MAIN FORECAST DISCUSSION LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ENOUGH EVIDENCE EXISTED FROM
A COMBINATION OF CURRENT OBS AND SHORT-TERM VISIBILITY MODEL PROGS
FROM THE RAP13/HRRR TO SUPPORT EXPANDING SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES
ONTO THE ORIGINAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED BACK AT 950 PM. AS A
RESULT...ONLY 4 COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KS AND 3 COUNTIES ALONG
HWY 81 IN THE FAR EASTERN NEB CWA REMAIN VOID OF A FORMAL FOG
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE KEEPING OUT A CLOSE EYE FOR
POSSIBLE FURTHER EXPANSION. IN ADDITION...TACKED 1 MORE HOUR ONTO
THE ADVISORY TO RUN IT THROUGH 10 AM...AND IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THIS MIGHT NOT BE LONG ENOUGH IN SOME PLACES.

THE BOTTOM LINE...FOLKS WITHIN MUCH OF THE CWA NEED TO BE PREPARED
FOR A FOGGY MORNING COMMUTE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

KUEX INDICATES THE RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR
THE MOST PART. THAT SAID...SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS
OF JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS
HOUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT ALSO MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE EXPANDING FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 1/4SM OR LOWER. RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A LIGHT SURFACE WIND AND
PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THE CURRENT ADVISORY REFLECTS THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.

A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.

SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.

SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.

SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.

MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.

WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...BY FAR THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE IS THE ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE AREA RESULTING IN LIFR/VLIFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING. THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THESE
VERY POOR CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN WELL PAST
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE AIMED THINGS ON A MORE PESSIMISTIC
NOTE WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 16Z...AND EVEN
THEN AT LEAST AN MVFR CEILING HANGING TOUGH INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND MID-
MORNING IS ADMITTEDLY RATHER LOW. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>063-072>076-082>086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 230539
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. DEW POINT SPREADS DROPPING QUICKLY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT WILL BE OCCURRING IN
AREAS OF DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW LYING RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AREAS OF FOG WERE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND GENERALLY EAST
OF A NORTH PLATTE KLBF TO VALENTINE KVTN. HAVE INCLUDED FOG IN KLBF
TAF SITE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM KBBW TO KONL. LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DISSIPATING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KOAX 230443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WRN NEBR PER EARLY AFTN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS KICKING OFF AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT 20Z...FM NEAR WAYNE TO JUST WEST THEN SW
OF COLUMBUS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COOL FRONT THAT
WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES...OR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH...E THROUGH
THE FA TONIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. PER
HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/HRRR CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE SPREAD FROM W
TO EAST THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING WITH SOME TRAILING
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR FRONT KEEPING POPS
IN FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES.
WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP AND ASSOCD CLOUDS MOVING INTO OR EVEN EAST
OF FAR SERN ZONES BY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND AREAS OF SUCH WERE MAINTAINED.

THE REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY. A TRAILING WAVE ON THURSDAY
COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND WITH WEAK WINDS...MIXING
COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD EITHER BE EARLY
...LINGERING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SE...OR ARRIVING LATER IN
THE AFTN WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. ALSO AIRMASS SEEMS WARM ENOUGH THAT
HIGHS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S SHOULD AT LEAST BE OBSERVED PER NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO NEAR 900 MB AT KOMA.

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH BULK OF SUCH WOULD APPEAR TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA WHICH COULD LIMIT
MAX TEMPS IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FRIDAY BEING QUITE MILD. SWRLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MID/LOWER CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH LITTLE OR NO COOL ADVECTION FRIDAY AS WAVE TRAVELS ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER MOST AREAS.

WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE AND N/NERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTN
SHOULD BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE REGION. STILL APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REACH AT LEAST LOWER 70S PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS NOT
MUCH MIXING WAS NEEDED TO REACH THAT LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY STRONG...COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE ON
SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND COULD KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR
SATURDAYS LEVEL. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FROM EARLIER
FORECAST/MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF FLOW TURNS MORE SWRLY OR EVEN
SRLY COULD SEE NEED FOR BOOSTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH NEXT TROUGH CROSSING
THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH 12Z RUNS GENERATED LITTLE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR FA. DID MENTION SLGT CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS APPARENT CURRENT SMALL CHANCE. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE FA...BUT COOL ADVECTION WAS
DELAYED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A LITTLE WARMER READINGS...SPCLY SE...ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
AS VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SLIDE EAST...AN EXPANDING AREA OF FOG WILL
SPREAD EAST AS WELL. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
LOW TO GO IN REGARDS TO CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT OUR TAF
SITES...HOWEVER LIGHT WIND AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
EVENING RAIN WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION. WILL LEAVE TO AMENDMENTS IF
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW IFR OR BECOME LIFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WRN NEBR PER EARLY AFTN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS KICKING OFF AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT 20Z...FM NEAR WAYNE TO JUST WEST THEN SW
OF COLUMBUS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COOL FRONT THAT
WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES...OR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH...E THROUGH
THE FA TONIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. PER
HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/HRRR CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE SPREAD FROM W
TO EAST THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING WITH SOME TRAILING
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR FRONT KEEPING POPS
IN FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES.
WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP AND ASSOCD CLOUDS MOVING INTO OR EVEN EAST
OF FAR SERN ZONES BY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND AREAS OF SUCH WERE MAINTAINED.

THE REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY. A TRAILING WAVE ON THURSDAY
COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND WITH WEAK WINDS...MIXING
COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD EITHER BE EARLY
...LINGERING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SE...OR ARRIVING LATER IN
THE AFTN WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. ALSO AIRMASS SEEMS WARM ENOUGH THAT
HIGHS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S SHOULD AT LEAST BE OBSERVED PER NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO NEAR 900 MB AT KOMA.

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH BULK OF SUCH WOULD APPEAR TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA WHICH COULD LIMIT
MAX TEMPS IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FRIDAY BEING QUITE MILD. SWRLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MID/LOWER CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH LITTLE OR NO COOL ADVECTION FRIDAY AS WAVE TRAVELS ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER MOST AREAS.

WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE AND N/NERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTN
SHOULD BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE REGION. STILL APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REACH AT LEAST LOWER 70S PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS NOT
MUCH MIXING WAS NEEDED TO REACH THAT LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY STRONG...COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE ON
SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND COULD KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR
SATURDAYS LEVEL. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FROM EARLIER
FORECAST/MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF FLOW TURNS MORE SWRLY OR EVEN
SRLY COULD SEE NEED FOR BOOSTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH NEXT TROUGH CROSSING
THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH 12Z RUNS GENERATED LITTLE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR FA. DID MENTION SLGT CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS APPARENT CURRENT SMALL CHANCE. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE FA...BUT COOL ADVECTION WAS
DELAYED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A LITTLE WARMER READINGS...SPCLY SE...ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
AS VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SLIDE EAST...AN EXPANDING AREA OF FOG WILL
SPREAD EAST AS WELL. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
LOW TO GO IN REGARDS TO CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT OUR TAF
SITES...HOWEVER LIGHT WIND AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
EVENING RAIN WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION. WILL LEAVE TO AMENDMENTS IF
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW IFR OR BECOME LIFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 230418 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1118 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. DEW POINT SPREADS DROPPING QUICKLY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT WILL BE OCCURRING IN
AREAS OF DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW LYING RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FEW SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 230418 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1118 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. DEW POINT SPREADS DROPPING QUICKLY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT WILL BE OCCURRING IN
AREAS OF DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW LYING RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FEW SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KGID 230305
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

KUEX INDICATES THE RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR
THE MOST PART. THAT SAID...SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS
OF JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS
HOUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT ALSO MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE EXPANDING FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 1/4SM OR LOWER. RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A LIGHT SURFACE WIND AND
PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THE CURRENT ADVISORY REFLECTS THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.

A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.

SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.

SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.

SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.

MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.

WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

KUEX INDICATES PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF EAR AND GRI...AND
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A LOW CEILING...BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000FT AGL...WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS LOW CEILING WILL MOVE EAST OF GRI
BY 02Z...IF NOT A TOUCH SOONER AND NOTHING MORE THAN FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL ARE FORECAST AT GRI AFTER 02Z.
THE LOW CEILING HAS ALREADY CLEARED EAR AND FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL ARE EXPECTED AT EAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT GRI TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WILL CLEAR BY 02Z IF NOT SOONER. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
WILL NOT IMPACT EAR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION WILL HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES STARTING
06Z TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE COULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ONE
SET OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VISIBILITY RESTRICTION COULD DROP TO IFR
OR LOWER...PRIMARILY AT GRI. NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE
ONE SET OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED AND
AS A RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT BOTH TAF SITES
06-14Z...AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS CONTINUE TO EVALUATE. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
     047-061-062-073-074-083-084.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT




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