Home > Products > State Listing > Nebraska Data
Latest:
 AFDLBF |  AFDGID |  AFDOAX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLBF 301739
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION. CURRENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL ALSO
DIMINISH AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH. THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...GOMEZ







  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGID 301734
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO HOURLY TEMP/DWPT CURVES...NO
CHANGES NEEDED. FCST IS EVOLVING AS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.

NOW: IMPRESSIVE COMMA CLOUD IS ON SATELLITE. THE BAND OF SHWRS
WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ITS SE QUADRANT IS
DRIFTING E AND WILL BE E OF HWY 281 SHORTLY.

TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.

WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.

TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.

THIS TROF WILL BE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF GRI AND EAR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...BUT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES INTO THE AREA. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN FOG COULD BE REALIZED AT BOTH TAF SITES
AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE TAFS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 301734
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO HOURLY TEMP/DWPT CURVES...NO
CHANGES NEEDED. FCST IS EVOLVING AS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.

NOW: IMPRESSIVE COMMA CLOUD IS ON SATELLITE. THE BAND OF SHWRS
WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ITS SE QUADRANT IS
DRIFTING E AND WILL BE E OF HWY 281 SHORTLY.

TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.

WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.

TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.

THIS TROF WILL BE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF GRI AND EAR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...BUT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES INTO THE AREA. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN FOG COULD BE REALIZED AT BOTH TAF SITES
AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE TAFS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 301734
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO HOURLY TEMP/DWPT CURVES...NO
CHANGES NEEDED. FCST IS EVOLVING AS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.

NOW: IMPRESSIVE COMMA CLOUD IS ON SATELLITE. THE BAND OF SHWRS
WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ITS SE QUADRANT IS
DRIFTING E AND WILL BE E OF HWY 281 SHORTLY.

TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.

WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.

TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.

THIS TROF WILL BE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF GRI AND EAR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...BUT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES INTO THE AREA. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN FOG COULD BE REALIZED AT BOTH TAF SITES
AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE TAFS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 301734
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO HOURLY TEMP/DWPT CURVES...NO
CHANGES NEEDED. FCST IS EVOLVING AS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.

NOW: IMPRESSIVE COMMA CLOUD IS ON SATELLITE. THE BAND OF SHWRS
WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ITS SE QUADRANT IS
DRIFTING E AND WILL BE E OF HWY 281 SHORTLY.

TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.

WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.

TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.

THIS TROF WILL BE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF GRI AND EAR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...BUT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES INTO THE AREA. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN FOG COULD BE REALIZED AT BOTH TAF SITES
AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE TAFS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KOAX 301720
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SEVERE RISK IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WAS CONDITIONAL AND AGREE WITH
THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE MAY STILL HAVE A FEW STRONG
STORMS AROUND. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PCPN. AHEAD
OF THE PCPN AREA IT HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WHERE PCPN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IT IS
IN THE 60S. EXPECT PCPN TO CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BREAK LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THEN MORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SHRA/TSRA. PCPN MAY NOT AFFECT KOFK TOO MUCH TONIGHT BUT DID
ADD IN IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO
AFFECT KLNK AND KOMA LATER TONIGHT AFTER PCPN ENDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 301720
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SEVERE RISK IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WAS CONDITIONAL AND AGREE WITH
THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WE MAY STILL HAVE A FEW STRONG
STORMS AROUND. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PCPN. AHEAD
OF THE PCPN AREA IT HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WHERE PCPN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IT IS
IN THE 60S. EXPECT PCPN TO CONTINUE IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BREAK LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THEN MORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SHRA/TSRA. PCPN MAY NOT AFFECT KOFK TOO MUCH TONIGHT BUT DID
ADD IN IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY ALSO
AFFECT KLNK AND KOMA LATER TONIGHT AFTER PCPN ENDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 301210
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
710 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY. AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST UP
TO 25 KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 3000 TO 7000 FT AGL THIS MORNING.
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO 10000 FT AGL THEREAFTER. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...EXPECT GIGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL TODAY...LOWERING TO 12000
FT AGL TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB






000
FXUS63 KLBF 301210
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
710 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY. AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST UP
TO 25 KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 3000 TO 7000 FT AGL THIS MORNING.
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO 10000 FT AGL THEREAFTER. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...EXPECT GIGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL TODAY...LOWERING TO 12000
FT AGL TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 301145
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY. AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST UP
TO 25 KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 3000 TO 7000 FT AGL THIS MORNING.
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO 10000 FT AGL THEREAFTER. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...EXPECT GIGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL TODAY...LOWERING TO 12000
FT AGL TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 301145
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY. AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST UP
TO 25 KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 3000 TO 7000 FT AGL THIS MORNING.
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO 10000 FT AGL THEREAFTER. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...EXPECT GIGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL TODAY...LOWERING TO 12000
FT AGL TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB






000
FXUS63 KOAX 301141
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
641 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KOFK BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z...AND KLNK
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT KOMA AFTER 18Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR VSBYS COMMON IN PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NO
PRECIP BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 00Z...BUT MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FIRE ALONG A FRONT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN KOFK NEAR 00Z...AND IN THE KLNK AND KOMA AREAS AFTER
04Z. ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 301141
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
641 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KOFK BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z...AND KLNK
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT KOMA AFTER 18Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR VSBYS COMMON IN PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NO
PRECIP BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 00Z...BUT MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FIRE ALONG A FRONT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN KOFK NEAR 00Z...AND IN THE KLNK AND KOMA AREAS AFTER
04Z. ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 301141
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
641 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KOFK BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z...AND KLNK
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT KOMA AFTER 18Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR VSBYS COMMON IN PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NO
PRECIP BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 00Z...BUT MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FIRE ALONG A FRONT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN KOFK NEAR 00Z...AND IN THE KLNK AND KOMA AREAS AFTER
04Z. ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 301141
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
641 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KOFK BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z...AND KLNK
BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT KOMA AFTER 18Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR
WITH MVFR VSBYS COMMON IN PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF NO
PRECIP BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z AND 00Z...BUT MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FIRE ALONG A FRONT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN KOFK NEAR 00Z...AND IN THE KLNK AND KOMA AREAS AFTER
04Z. ATTENDANT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KGID 301140
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
640 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO HOURLY TEMP/DWPT CURVES...NO
CHANGES NEEDED. FCST IS EVOLVING AS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.

NOW: IMPRESSIVE COMMA CLOUD IS ON SATELLITE. THE BAND OF SHWRS
WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ITS SE QUADRANT IS
DRIFTING E AND WILL BE E OF HWY 281 SHORTLY.

TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.

WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.

TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.

THIS TROF WILL BE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TODAY: VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS DONE.
LOW- MID LVL CIGS WILL BE CLEARING EAR/GRI 12Z-15Z. MARGINAL LLWS
IS IN PROGRESS AND IT TOO WILL END BY 15Z AS THE CORE OF STRONG
LOW-LVL WINDS WEAKENS AND DEPARTS TO THE E. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT`S NOT A LOCK. S WINDS ARE CURRENTY GUSTING
TO 23 KTS. THIS WILL END SHORTLY AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO
SSW 10-15 KTS. OCCASIONAL G19 KTS IS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VFR AND ESSENTIALLY SKC UNTIL CIRRUS CIGS INVADE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DAYTIME GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE S UNDER 10 KTS.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 301140
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
640 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO HOURLY TEMP/DWPT CURVES...NO
CHANGES NEEDED. FCST IS EVOLVING AS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.

NOW: IMPRESSIVE COMMA CLOUD IS ON SATELLITE. THE BAND OF SHWRS
WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ITS SE QUADRANT IS
DRIFTING E AND WILL BE E OF HWY 281 SHORTLY.

TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.

WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.

TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.

THIS TROF WILL BE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TODAY: VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS DONE.
LOW- MID LVL CIGS WILL BE CLEARING EAR/GRI 12Z-15Z. MARGINAL LLWS
IS IN PROGRESS AND IT TOO WILL END BY 15Z AS THE CORE OF STRONG
LOW-LVL WINDS WEAKENS AND DEPARTS TO THE E. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT`S NOT A LOCK. S WINDS ARE CURRENTY GUSTING
TO 23 KTS. THIS WILL END SHORTLY AND WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO
SSW 10-15 KTS. OCCASIONAL G19 KTS IS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VFR AND ESSENTIALLY SKC UNTIL CIRRUS CIGS INVADE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DAYTIME GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE S UNDER 10 KTS.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 300901
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...THE END OF THIS CURRENT STRETCH OF SUMMERLIKE WARMTH IS ON THE
HORIZON AND THE TRANSITION TO A TEMPORARY COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.

OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...THE HRRR HAS BEEN STELLAR WITH ITS
DEPICTION OF THE DECREASE IN SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE COMMA CLOUD. FROM REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS IT
APPEARED THERE WAS TOO MUCH CAPPING ALOFT AND POOR MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES /LACK OF INSTABILITY/.

THRU SUNRISE: A FEW ISOLATED SHWRS WILL CONT TO POP UP HERE AND
THERE. WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING THE TSTM CLUSTER IN THE DDC
AREA. THE 06Z NAM/HRRR AND THE 00Z HI-RES NAM GUIDANCE ALL HAVE IT
AND TAKE IT NE INTO THE FCST AREA...MAINLY E OF HWY 281. SO WHILE
POPS WERE INITIALLY TRIMMED THRU MIDDAY BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...THEY WERE RAMPED BACK UP BASED ON GOOD GUIDANCE HANDLING
OF THIS.

TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.

WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.

TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THRU 11Z: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8K FT...BUT THERE WILL BE A
2 HR WINDOW FOR MVFR VSBYS IN SCT +SHRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR G35
KTS. THE TIMING TOOL BASED ON RADAR SUGGESTS 630Z-0800Z AT EAR AND
07Z-09Z GRI. AFTER THE LINE OF SHWRS CLEARS THE TERMINALS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR WITH LLWS DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHWRS...WINDS
WILL BE SE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR. LLWS ENDS 14Z-15Z. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S OR POSSIBLY SSW 10-15 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THIS EVENING: VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE 5-10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE:HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 300901
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...THE END OF THIS CURRENT STRETCH OF SUMMERLIKE WARMTH IS ON THE
HORIZON AND THE TRANSITION TO A TEMPORARY COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ALOFT: A POTENT VORT MAX WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AT 09Z WITH A
NICE COMMA CLOUD IN SATELLITE. THIS VORT MAX WILL CONT DEPARTING
THE REGION TO THE NNE. THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE
WILL WRAP INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TODAY...WITH THE SRN MOST VORT MAX MOVING INTO CO THIS EVENING AND
EJECTING NE ACROSS KS/NEB AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WAS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WILL HEAD
NNE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY-TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL NEB/KS AND BECOME STATIONARY THRU
TONIGHT. AM NOT EVEN SURE THIS IS A TRUE FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A MODEST DRYLINE.

OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...THE HRRR HAS BEEN STELLAR WITH ITS
DEPICTION OF THE DECREASE IN SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE COMMA CLOUD. FROM REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS IT
APPEARED THERE WAS TOO MUCH CAPPING ALOFT AND POOR MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES /LACK OF INSTABILITY/.

THRU SUNRISE: A FEW ISOLATED SHWRS WILL CONT TO POP UP HERE AND
THERE. WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING THE TSTM CLUSTER IN THE DDC
AREA. THE 06Z NAM/HRRR AND THE 00Z HI-RES NAM GUIDANCE ALL HAVE IT
AND TAKE IT NE INTO THE FCST AREA...MAINLY E OF HWY 281. SO WHILE
POPS WERE INITIALLY TRIMMED THRU MIDDAY BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...THEY WERE RAMPED BACK UP BASED ON GOOD GUIDANCE HANDLING
OF THIS.

TODAY: SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL NOON WITH A DRYING TREND
FROM W-E. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER DAY OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE E OF HWY 281. IF MORNING CLOUDS/SHWRS ARE
MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED...WE MAY BE TOO HIGH BY 3-5F DUE TO
DELAYED CLEARING.

WE WILL CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL SEP TODAY...BUT
THE LAST 4 DAYS OF AVERAGE TEMPS AT LEAST 10F ABOVE NORMAL PUT A
BIG DENT IN THE DOWNSIDE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. THAT RECORD COOL
STRETCH FROM THE 11TH-13TH WAS TOUGH TO RECOVER FROM FOR THE
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMP.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /E OF HWY 281/ IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S SHWRS. COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF ALOFT...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WITH A SWATH OF MLCAPE UP TO 1250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A COUPLE TSTMS. MOST OF THE
TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER ERN NEB/KS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. GIVEN A DECENT COMPONENT OF DEEP LAYER WINDS NORMAL TO
THE FORCING...AND THE EXPECTED LACK OF COMPETITION...STORMS COULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR IN CHARACTER. THE SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGESTS
MODEST SEVERE HAIL BUT INTERNAL UPDRAFT ENHANCEMENT IN ANY
SUPERCELLS WILL TRUMP THIS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF 1"
HAIL IN THE HWO. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS THERE BUT NOT AS
GREAT.

TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED EXIT
REGION OF AN 80 KT UPPER-LVL JET STREAK WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER ERN KS/NEB. HOWEVER...
THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
E OF HWY 281. MUCAPE NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD- BEARING LAYER WILL BE NEAR 30 KTS. SO HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS CANT BE RULED OUT.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHERWISE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY LINGER BRIEFLY IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND
NOSE OF THE LLVL JET. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES...RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE DAY AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST CO/OK PANHANDLE AREA WITH
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEB...AND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND POOLS ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS/SOUTHERN NEB WITH DPS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 60S. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO AROUND 2500 J/KG IN AFTN IN OUR
SE ZONES PER SREF AND NAM SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 40KTS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTN/EVE WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS AS JET CROSSES
KS AND THE TROUGH EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE
LOOKING WET WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND GOOD
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW LONG PCPN WILL LAST
ON THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SLOWER WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION AND CLOSES
OFF THE LOW AT H7...WHEREAS OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE/MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION DURING THE DAY. HARD TO SAY AT THIS
POINT...BUT THE MORNING HOURS LOOKING MORE WET THAN THE AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING JUST YET
IN CASE SYSTEM SLOWS.

THE FORECAST DRIES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
COOLER TEMPS MOVING IN WITH CAA IN NW FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE
WEEKEND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NE CONUS/ONTARIO AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THRU 11Z: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8K FT...BUT THERE WILL BE A
2 HR WINDOW FOR MVFR VSBYS IN SCT +SHRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR G35
KTS. THE TIMING TOOL BASED ON RADAR SUGGESTS 630Z-0800Z AT EAR AND
07Z-09Z GRI. AFTER THE LINE OF SHWRS CLEARS THE TERMINALS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR WITH LLWS DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHWRS...WINDS
WILL BE SE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR. LLWS ENDS 14Z-15Z. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S OR POSSIBLY SSW 10-15 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THIS EVENING: VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE 5-10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE:HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300835
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
MVFR CATEGORIES AND CEILINGS ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG IN OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER










000
FXUS63 KLBF 300835
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
MVFR CATEGORIES AND CEILINGS ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG IN OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER










000
FXUS63 KLBF 300835
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
MVFR CATEGORIES AND CEILINGS ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG IN OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER










000
FXUS63 KLBF 300835
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
MVFR CATEGORIES AND CEILINGS ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG IN OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER










000
FXUS63 KOAX 300807
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
307 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WAS LIFTING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z.  SUPPORTED BY
60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED AND DIMINISHED SINCE 05Z AS BAND OF STORMS MOVED AWAY
FROM SUPPORT OF 60KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

06Z RAP TRANSLATES THIS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING INITIAL BAND OF
STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 18Z IN ADVANCE OF DRY LINE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
CLOUDS BREAK ENOUGH FOR SUN TO ADD TO DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE DRY
LINE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRIMARY FORCING FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER WAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT LATE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT
TERM WEATHER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PULLS DOWN
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH SETS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING WEST TOWARD MISSOURI RIVER
SHOULD WASH OUT TONIGHT AS SRLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS BELOW
FL010 WERE WORKING SW WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THESE LOW
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KOMA AND KOFK. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY TO ROLL INTO ERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID TUESDAY MORNING AS TROUGH CONTINUES LIFTING NE. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THESE STORMS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...IT
APPEARED THERE WILL BE ONE WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE MO RIVER
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT THEN LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS TWO
AREAS. ONE AREA POSSIBLY NEAR KOFK BY LATE AFTN WITH THE OTHER
NEAR OR SW OF KLNK A LITTLE LATER WITH THAT SECOND AREA POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KLNK AND KOMA LONGER THAN THE FIRST AREA WOULD AT KOFK.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN MORNING
CONVECTION ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE 70S. FOR NOW
JUST CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PROB30 WITH GUSTS TO 35 WITH LATTER
DAY CONVECTION CHANCES AT ALL SITES.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KGID 300553
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED SINCE 10 PM...PRIMARILY
FOR POPS/SKY. THE NARROW RAIN BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS
INDICATED BY THE HRRR. SO POPS WERE BACKED DOWN A BIT AND WE ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE IF THE HRRR IS RIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN G36 KTS
AT MKC AND 39 KTS AT LBF. AN SPS WAS POSTED FOR FURNAS COUNTY AT
11 PM. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS AND FURTHER SPECIAL WX
STMTS /SPS/ MAY BE NEEDED THRU THE NIGHT. BUT THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE SHWRS HOLDING TOGETHER.

NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THRU 11Z: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8K FT...BUT THERE WILL BE A
2 HR WINDOW FOR MVFR VSBYS IN SCT +SHRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR G35
KTS. THE TIMING TOOL BASED ON RADAR SUGGESTS 630Z-0800Z AT EAR AND
07Z-09Z GRI. AFTER THE LINE OF SHWRS CLEARS THE TERMINALS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR WITH LLWS DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHWRS...WINDS
WILL BE SE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR. LLWS ENDS 14Z-15Z. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S OR POSSIBLY SSW 10-15 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THIS EVENING: VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE 5-10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE:HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 300553
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED SINCE 10 PM...PRIMARILY
FOR POPS/SKY. THE NARROW RAIN BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS
INDICATED BY THE HRRR. SO POPS WERE BACKED DOWN A BIT AND WE ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE IF THE HRRR IS RIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN G36 KTS
AT MKC AND 39 KTS AT LBF. AN SPS WAS POSTED FOR FURNAS COUNTY AT
11 PM. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS AND FURTHER SPECIAL WX
STMTS /SPS/ MAY BE NEEDED THRU THE NIGHT. BUT THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE SHWRS HOLDING TOGETHER.

NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THRU 11Z: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8K FT...BUT THERE WILL BE A
2 HR WINDOW FOR MVFR VSBYS IN SCT +SHRA WITH POTENTIAL FOR G35
KTS. THE TIMING TOOL BASED ON RADAR SUGGESTS 630Z-0800Z AT EAR AND
07Z-09Z GRI. AFTER THE LINE OF SHWRS CLEARS THE TERMINALS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR WITH LLWS DEVELOPING. OUTSIDE OF THESE SHWRS...WINDS
WILL BE SE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR. LLWS ENDS 14Z-15Z. A FEW CU COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S OR POSSIBLY SSW 10-15 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

THIS EVENING: VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE 5-10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE:HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300547
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST UPDATE TO DROP TORNADO WATCH. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
MVFR CATEGORIES AND CEILINGS ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG IN OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 300547
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST UPDATE TO DROP TORNADO WATCH. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
MVFR CATEGORIES AND CEILINGS ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG IN OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 300547
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST UPDATE TO DROP TORNADO WATCH. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
MVFR CATEGORIES AND CEILINGS ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG IN OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 300547
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST UPDATE TO DROP TORNADO WATCH. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
MVFR CATEGORIES AND CEILINGS ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG IN OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KGID 300508
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED SINCE 10 PM...PRIMARILY
FOR POPS/SKY. THE NARROW RAIN BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS
INDICATED BY THE HRRR. SO POPS WERE BACKED DOWN A BIT AND WE ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE IF THE HRRR IS RIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN G36 KTS
AT MKC AND 39 KTS AT LBF. AN SPS WAS POSTED FOR FURNAS COUNTY AT
11 PM. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS AND FURTHER SPECIAL WX
STMTS /SPS/ MAY BE NEEDED THRU THE NIGHT. BUT THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE SHWRS HOLDING TOGETHER.

NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE AXIS OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE JET AXIS CONTINUES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS
WELL...LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE TAF AS NAILING DOWN A TIME IS DIFFICULT. SO EVEN
THROUGH IT IS LIKELY WE WILL GET RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...I OPTED
FOR A LONGER WINDOW OF VCTS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 300508
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SEVERAL MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED SINCE 10 PM...PRIMARILY
FOR POPS/SKY. THE NARROW RAIN BAND IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS
INDICATED BY THE HRRR. SO POPS WERE BACKED DOWN A BIT AND WE ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE IF THE HRRR IS RIGHT. WE HAVE SEEN G36 KTS
AT MKC AND 39 KTS AT LBF. AN SPS WAS POSTED FOR FURNAS COUNTY AT
11 PM. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS AND FURTHER SPECIAL WX
STMTS /SPS/ MAY BE NEEDED THRU THE NIGHT. BUT THIS WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE SHWRS HOLDING TOGETHER.

NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE AXIS OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE JET AXIS CONTINUES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS
WELL...LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE TAF AS NAILING DOWN A TIME IS DIFFICULT. SO EVEN
THROUGH IT IS LIKELY WE WILL GET RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...I OPTED
FOR A LONGER WINDOW OF VCTS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300423
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING WEST TOWARD MISSOURI RIVER
SHOULD WASH OUT TONIGHT AS SRLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS BELOW
FL010 WERE WORKING SW WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THESE LOW
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KOMA AND KOFK. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY TO ROLL INTO ERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID TUESDAY MORNING AS TROUGH CONTINUES LIFTING NE. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THESE STORMS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...IT
APPEARED THERE WILL BE ONE WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE MO RIVER
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT THEN LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS TWO
AREAS. ONE AREA POSSIBLY NEAR KOFK BY LATE AFTN WITH THE OTHER
NEAR OR SW OF KLNK A LITTLE LATER WITH THAT SECOND AREA POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KLNK AND KOMA LONGER THAN THE FIRST AREA WOULD AT KOFK.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN MORNING
CONVECTION ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE 70S. FOR NOW
JUST CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PROB30 WITH GUSTS TO 35 WITH LATTER
DAY CONVECTION CHANCES AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300423
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING WEST TOWARD MISSOURI RIVER
SHOULD WASH OUT TONIGHT AS SRLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS BELOW
FL010 WERE WORKING SW WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THESE LOW
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KOMA AND KOFK. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY TO ROLL INTO ERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID TUESDAY MORNING AS TROUGH CONTINUES LIFTING NE. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THESE STORMS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...IT
APPEARED THERE WILL BE ONE WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE MO RIVER
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT THEN LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS TWO
AREAS. ONE AREA POSSIBLY NEAR KOFK BY LATE AFTN WITH THE OTHER
NEAR OR SW OF KLNK A LITTLE LATER WITH THAT SECOND AREA POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KLNK AND KOMA LONGER THAN THE FIRST AREA WOULD AT KOFK.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN MORNING
CONVECTION ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE 70S. FOR NOW
JUST CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PROB30 WITH GUSTS TO 35 WITH LATTER
DAY CONVECTION CHANCES AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300423
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING WEST TOWARD MISSOURI RIVER
SHOULD WASH OUT TONIGHT AS SRLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS BELOW
FL010 WERE WORKING SW WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THESE LOW
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KOMA AND KOFK. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY TO ROLL INTO ERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID TUESDAY MORNING AS TROUGH CONTINUES LIFTING NE. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THESE STORMS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...IT
APPEARED THERE WILL BE ONE WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE MO RIVER
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT THEN LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS TWO
AREAS. ONE AREA POSSIBLY NEAR KOFK BY LATE AFTN WITH THE OTHER
NEAR OR SW OF KLNK A LITTLE LATER WITH THAT SECOND AREA POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KLNK AND KOMA LONGER THAN THE FIRST AREA WOULD AT KOFK.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN MORNING
CONVECTION ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE 70S. FOR NOW
JUST CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PROB30 WITH GUSTS TO 35 WITH LATTER
DAY CONVECTION CHANCES AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300423
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING WEST TOWARD MISSOURI RIVER
SHOULD WASH OUT TONIGHT AS SRLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS BELOW
FL010 WERE WORKING SW WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND THESE LOW
CIGS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KOMA AND KOFK. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY TO ROLL INTO ERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID TUESDAY MORNING AS TROUGH CONTINUES LIFTING NE. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THESE STORMS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY...IT
APPEARED THERE WILL BE ONE WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE MO RIVER
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT THEN LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS TWO
AREAS. ONE AREA POSSIBLY NEAR KOFK BY LATE AFTN WITH THE OTHER
NEAR OR SW OF KLNK A LITTLE LATER WITH THAT SECOND AREA POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KLNK AND KOMA LONGER THAN THE FIRST AREA WOULD AT KOFK.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN MORNING
CONVECTION ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL THROUGH THE 70S. FOR NOW
JUST CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PROB30 WITH GUSTS TO 35 WITH LATTER
DAY CONVECTION CHANCES AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300317 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1017 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST UPDATE TO DROP TORNADO WATCH. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MAIN ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST OF VALENTINE KVTN TO NORTH PLATTE KLBF LINE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUSTAINED AT 25KTS EXPECTED.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 300317 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1017 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST UPDATE TO DROP TORNADO WATCH. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MAIN ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST OF VALENTINE KVTN TO NORTH PLATTE KLBF LINE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUSTAINED AT 25KTS EXPECTED.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 300317 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1017 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST UPDATE TO DROP TORNADO WATCH. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MAIN ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST OF VALENTINE KVTN TO NORTH PLATTE KLBF LINE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUSTAINED AT 25KTS EXPECTED.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 300317 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1017 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST UPDATE TO DROP TORNADO WATCH. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MAIN ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST OF VALENTINE KVTN TO NORTH PLATTE KLBF LINE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUSTAINED AT 25KTS EXPECTED.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KGID 300025
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
725 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE AXIS OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE JET AXIS CONTINUES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS
WELL...LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE TAF AS NAILING DOWN A TIME IS DIFFICULT. SO EVEN
THROUGH IT IS LIKELY WE WILL GET RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...I OPTED
FOR A LONGER WINDOW OF VCTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 300025
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
725 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE AXIS OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE JET AXIS CONTINUES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS
WELL...LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE TAF AS NAILING DOWN A TIME IS DIFFICULT. SO EVEN
THROUGH IT IS LIKELY WE WILL GET RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...I OPTED
FOR A LONGER WINDOW OF VCTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 300025
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
725 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE AXIS OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE JET AXIS CONTINUES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS
WELL...LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE TAF AS NAILING DOWN A TIME IS DIFFICULT. SO EVEN
THROUGH IT IS LIKELY WE WILL GET RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...I OPTED
FOR A LONGER WINDOW OF VCTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 300025
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
725 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE AXIS OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A CONCERN FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE JET AXIS CONTINUES EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS
WELL...LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE TAF AS NAILING DOWN A TIME IS DIFFICULT. SO EVEN
THROUGH IT IS LIKELY WE WILL GET RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...I OPTED
FOR A LONGER WINDOW OF VCTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 292342 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MAIN ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST OF VALENTINE KVTN TO NORTH PLATTE KLBF LINE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUSTAINED AT 25KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 292342 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MAIN ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST OF VALENTINE KVTN TO NORTH PLATTE KLBF LINE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUSTAINED AT 25KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 292342 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MAIN ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST OF VALENTINE KVTN TO NORTH PLATTE KLBF LINE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUSTAINED AT 25KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 292342 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MAIN ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST OF VALENTINE KVTN TO NORTH PLATTE KLBF LINE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUSTAINED AT 25KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 292312
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD SEND A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME
WEAKENING POSSIBLY BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THUS THE PREVAILING TSTM MENTION WITH THE
00Z TAFS AT KOFK AND KLNK AND THE TEMPO GROUP FOR KOMA.
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH WAS HANDLED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292312
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD SEND A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME
WEAKENING POSSIBLY BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THUS THE PREVAILING TSTM MENTION WITH THE
00Z TAFS AT KOFK AND KLNK AND THE TEMPO GROUP FOR KOMA.
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH WAS HANDLED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KLBF 292035
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE LONG LINE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SWING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE A LOWER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KVTN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20
KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS AT TIMES. ALSO...FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA HAS LIFTED...BUT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS KEEPING CONDITIONS IFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 292035
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE LONG LINE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SWING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE A LOWER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KVTN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20
KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS AT TIMES. ALSO...FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA HAS LIFTED...BUT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS KEEPING CONDITIONS IFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KGID 292025
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE. FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN...BUT NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. A LINE
OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE COVERAGE
AREA...AFFECTING BOTH TERMINALS. SPECIFIC TIMING IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS POINT...ONCE ACTIVITY ACTUALLY FIRES OFF TO THE WEST
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT...AT THIS POINT HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF TIME COVERED. EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS FAR AS LLWS
SHEAR GOES...ITS PRETTY MARGINAL...AND THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IF ITS GOING TO HAPPEN...KGRI HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
KEAR...SO MADE THAT ADJUSTMENT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BOTH TERMINALS BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KGID 292025
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE SRN LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH
CO/NM...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO
KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. AT THE SFC...HAVE HAD AT
TIMES GUSTY SRLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE SET UP
OVER ERN CO...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NRN
NEB. STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT CU
DEVELOPED BY MIDDAY BRINGING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. 3PM TEMPS SHOWING LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THAT PIECE OF ENERGY
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CO/NM...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR DATA
CONTINUING THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND
KEPT THE 00-03Z HOURS DRY UNTIL THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES.
OVERALL...DIDNT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...WITH POPS ESP RAMPING UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 06Z IN THE
WEST...THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SITS TO THE W AND N OF THE
CWA...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS VARY ON WHAT IS
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING SOME MUCAPE VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 1000
J/KG...OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG. SHOULD THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MATERIALIZE THERE WILL BE MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THINKING THAT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE AREA SETTLES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH
SHOULD BRING PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TUESDAY EVENING...WE WILL KNOW BY SUNSET IF SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN FIRE ALONG SOUTHERN END OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLOWING SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
IMPACT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY
THROUGH EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY PROBABLY STARTS OFF PRETTY QUIET BUT THE EMERGENCE OF A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AND THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. OF NOTE...
IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY
OR VERY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY FIRING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CAPPING IS WEAK...AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTED OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT EARLY TO REALLY
NAIL DOWN THIS POTENTIAL EXACTLY BUT ENOUGH IN THE MODELS TO
CONSIDER THE SEVERE RISK AND ITS POTENTIAL. BACKING FLOW NEAR
BOUNDARY COULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF THE
STORMS CAN FIRE. THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST. WHAT STORMS DO
DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHIFT EAST
WITH LOW LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY IS A BIT OF QUANDARY AT THIS POINT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
PRETTY MUCH ALL CAME IN BACK FURTHER NORTH NEBRASKA. EVEN THE
FURTHEST NORTH GFS SHIFTED THINGS TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS
BASICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE 1/2 HALF OF THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES...BUT THAT COULD GO UP QUITE A BIT IF THINGS PAN OUT
DIFFERENTLY. OF COURSE...IT COULD SHIFT BACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
BE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 60S. DON/T
BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN FOR
THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED AS DRY. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THERE
SIGNS IT MAY SHIFT WESTERLY WITH TIME. COUPLE OF HINTS AT MAYBE
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE/TRACE EVENT...BUT WILL LEAVE
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES/CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SEASONAL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE. FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN...BUT NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. A LINE
OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE COVERAGE
AREA...AFFECTING BOTH TERMINALS. SPECIFIC TIMING IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS POINT...ONCE ACTIVITY ACTUALLY FIRES OFF TO THE WEST
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT...AT THIS POINT HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF TIME COVERED. EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS FAR AS LLWS
SHEAR GOES...ITS PRETTY MARGINAL...AND THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IF ITS GOING TO HAPPEN...KGRI HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
KEAR...SO MADE THAT ADJUSTMENT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BOTH TERMINALS BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292002
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 09Z AT KOFK...BY 12Z
AT KLNK AND BY 16Z AT KOMA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292002
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART APPEAR TO BE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
DEPICTING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
RESPONSE TO LIFTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROF. IMPRESSIVE 500MB HGT
FALLS AROUND 100M ARE PROGGED TONIGHT AHEAD OF VERY POTENT VORT MAX
AS IT EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BEFORE TIGHT CIRCULATION AND SFC REFLECTION REACHES SD ON TUESDAY.

WARM SECTOR PCPN IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INVOF THE NEB
PANHANDLE THEN EXPAND EWD TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIRES ARW/NMM
ADVERTISE ACTIVITY REACHING OUTSKIRTS OF THE WRN CWA SOMETIME
SHORTLY AFT 12Z.

MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE NRN CWA INVOF TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC LOW IN SD...AND SHOULD BE PRIME LOCATION FOR SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES AFTN. THUS AREA INCLUDED IN SPC DAY2 SLGT
OUTLOOK. BY WED AFTN...REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN EXPECTED AS COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONTAL
BNDRY SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE OMAHA METRO SOMETIME LATE
WED EVENING. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
BNDRY TO TAP INTO...AND APPEARS THAT GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED MAINLY OVER THE SERN CWA BY THUR MORNING.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THEN THUR AFTN WHEN SECONDARY SHOT
OF CAA FILTERING IN SHOVES COLD FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

PCPN CHANCES THRU THE EXTENDED PDS APPEAR TO BE RATHER SMALL AT
BEST THUS ONLY ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS TEMPS. GENERAL AGREEMENT
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NUDGE CNTRL
CONUS TROF EWD TO INTO THE ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING THKNS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THUS WARMING TREND
ON TAP GOING FROM LOW/MID 60S ON FRI TO LOW/MID 70S NEXT SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 09Z AT KOFK...BY 12Z
AT KLNK AND BY 16Z AT KOMA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 291807
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
107 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
PRECIPITATION TRENDS BY INCREASING CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO DID SOME FINE TUNING ON
PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EVENTUALLY RAINFALL SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DELAYED THE ONSET OF HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

ALSO KEPT FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOW TO MOVE NORTH AND
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PRECLUDE THE FOG/STRATUS FROM LIFTING TOO QUICKLY THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH AM STARTING TO SEE SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS. THINK
THE FOG WILL LIFT...BUT STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL
LIKELY HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES SO DID DROP HIGHS A BIT IN THESE
AREAS TODAY.

STILL EVALUATING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME...NORTHEAST COLORADO LOOKS TO BE THE HOT-BED OF WHERE
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY FORM BUT ANY DEVIANCE FROM CURRENT MODELS
COULD ADJUST THAT LOCATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE CAP
BREAKING AROUND 18Z...SO EXPECTING THINGS TO GET GOING EARLY IN
THE DAY. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL
ENCOMPASS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA STILL UNCERTAIN IF STORMS CAN/WILL
BECOME SEVERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MID AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS THIS
MORNING WITH KVTN AND KANW REPORTING LOW VISBY. KANW ALSO
REPORTING DZ. MEANWHILE SHOWERS/THUNDER CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. FORECAST UPDATE SCALED POPS WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL INTO NW
NEB...EAST OF THE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE LONG LINE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SWING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE A LOWER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KVTN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20
KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS AT TIMES. ALSO...FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA HAS LIFTED...BUT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS KEEPING CONDITIONS IFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 291807
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
107 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
PRECIPITATION TRENDS BY INCREASING CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO DID SOME FINE TUNING ON
PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EVENTUALLY RAINFALL SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DELAYED THE ONSET OF HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

ALSO KEPT FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOW TO MOVE NORTH AND
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PRECLUDE THE FOG/STRATUS FROM LIFTING TOO QUICKLY THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH AM STARTING TO SEE SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS. THINK
THE FOG WILL LIFT...BUT STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL
LIKELY HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES SO DID DROP HIGHS A BIT IN THESE
AREAS TODAY.

STILL EVALUATING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME...NORTHEAST COLORADO LOOKS TO BE THE HOT-BED OF WHERE
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY FORM BUT ANY DEVIANCE FROM CURRENT MODELS
COULD ADJUST THAT LOCATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE CAP
BREAKING AROUND 18Z...SO EXPECTING THINGS TO GET GOING EARLY IN
THE DAY. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL
ENCOMPASS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA STILL UNCERTAIN IF STORMS CAN/WILL
BECOME SEVERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MID AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS THIS
MORNING WITH KVTN AND KANW REPORTING LOW VISBY. KANW ALSO
REPORTING DZ. MEANWHILE SHOWERS/THUNDER CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. FORECAST UPDATE SCALED POPS WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL INTO NW
NEB...EAST OF THE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE LONG LINE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SWING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE A LOWER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KVTN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20
KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS AT TIMES. ALSO...FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA HAS LIFTED...BUT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS KEEPING CONDITIONS IFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KGID 291746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NV LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE DAYTIME HOURS
ARE STILL LOOKING MILD AHEAD THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH AFTN
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
READINGS NEAR 80F OR IN THE LOW 80S. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO
HOLD OFF THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING DURING
THE NIGHT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AXIS OF THE LLVL JET. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO
OUR WEST...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIFTING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE AREA OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS OUR
W/NW CWA AROUND MID DAY OR EARLY AFTN AND THE SPC WRF SUGGESTS
SCATTED CONVECTION MAY BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
KEPT THINGS DRY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS IN CO WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE
AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES ONTO THE
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLOWER TO SOME DEGREE AT
THE ONSET...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASING AFTER DARK AND
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z NAM
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE GFS/SREF WERE WEAKER
AND THE 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FAR EAST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LEXINGTON TO BEAVER CITY LINE IN CASE THE
00Z NAM VERIFIES. FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND
THUNDER IS LOOKING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LONGWAVE TROF WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN USA TODAY AND GRADUALLY
PROGRESS E THRU THE PLAINS THU...AND INTO THE ERN USA FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL DRIVE THE WX HERE
UNTIL THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PASSES THU.

ALOFT: AT DAYBREAK TUE A POTENT -TILT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A VERY NICE COMMA CLOUD ON IR/WV
SATELLITE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS VORT MAX WILL LIFT UP THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE RACING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AT THE
BASE OF THE BROADER TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL CROSS NEB/KS WED
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL BE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80 KT
UPPER-LVL JET MAX. THE FINAL COMBINED SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE TROF WILL
TRAIL BEHIND AND CROSS THE FCST AREA THU. CYCLONIC NW FLOW FOLLOWS
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLINIC SAT-SUN.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE PANHANDLE INTO SD
TUE MORNING AS WEEK COOL FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS NEB/KS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WED. THE NAM/EC HAVE IT JUST E OF THE FCST
AREA BY MIDDAY WED. THE 03Z SREF MEAN AND GFS HAVE IT JUST CLEARING
THE FCST AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE APPROACH OF THE FINAL TWO SHORTWAVE
TROFS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER KS. THIS LOW WILL HEAD FOR THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSES IN THU BEFORE A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING
THRU HERE THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DROP SE INTO THE PLAINS
FRI AND THEN HEADS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD SAT AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE. ITS COOL FRONT SHOULD
MOVE IN SUN.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS TUE-WED EVE. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR TSTMS IS SLATED FORO WED AFTERNOON-EVE. THE DETAILS
ARE BELOW.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE RACING
NE THRU THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND IT AS THE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS. IT SHOULD HAVE A NICE COMMA SHAPE.

THESE SHWRS COULD BE GUSTY...WITH POSSIBLE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE
40-45 KTS AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-LVL JET. 40 KT WINDS SHOULD BE AS LOW
AS 1000 FT.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. COOLING ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN
NEB DOWN INTO CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A LOW-
TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME ERN FRINGE OF THE
FCST AREA /OSCEOLA-HEBRON-BELOIT/.

USED BIAS CORRECTED SREF TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH HAS A NICE
DEPICTION OF LOW 80S OVER N-CNTRL KS.

TUE NIGHT: ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT VORT MAX. AGAIN...MOST OF THIS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST E OF THE FCST AREA...BUT N-CNTRL KS COULD GET IN ON THE
ACTION. MUCAPE IS ONLY FCST AROUND 500 J/KG.

WED: TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING PROBABLY JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND CONTINUED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION
OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.

THE SPC NOW HAS THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLGT FOR
SVR WX. WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.

THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2000
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE NEARING 50 KTS. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM S AND E OF TEHE TRI-CITIES. THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY...NOT ONLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT ALSO
BECAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED WITH THE LOW
OVER CNTRL KS. THE PRIMARY THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SVR HAIL.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED COULD RESULT IN A
RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

12AM-12PM THU: TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS/GEM/DGEX ARE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF RAIN THRU WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROF. IF THIS OCCURS...OUR HIGHS COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

FRI: PROBABLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. YESTERDAY IT WAS LOOKING
WINDY IN CAA. NOW JUST CAA WITHOUT THE WIND.

SAT AM CHILL: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS N OF I-80 TO RADIATE INTO THE 30S. WHILE TEMP
GUIDANCE IS NOT THREATENING...THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR FROST POTENTIAL WITH LATER FCSTS.

SAT-SUN: QUIET AND DRY WITH RECOVERING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE. FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN...BUT NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. A LINE
OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE COVERAGE
AREA...AFFECTING BOTH TERMINALS. SPECIFIC TIMING IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS POINT...ONCE ACTIVITY ACTUALLY FIRES OFF TO THE WEST
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT...AT THIS POINT HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF TIME COVERED. EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS FAR AS LLWS
SHEAR GOES...ITS PRETTY MARGINAL...AND THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IF ITS GOING TO HAPPEN...KGRI HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
KEAR...SO MADE THAT ADJUSTMENT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BOTH TERMINALS BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 291746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NV LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE DAYTIME HOURS
ARE STILL LOOKING MILD AHEAD THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH AFTN
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
READINGS NEAR 80F OR IN THE LOW 80S. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO
HOLD OFF THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING DURING
THE NIGHT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AXIS OF THE LLVL JET. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO
OUR WEST...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIFTING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE AREA OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS OUR
W/NW CWA AROUND MID DAY OR EARLY AFTN AND THE SPC WRF SUGGESTS
SCATTED CONVECTION MAY BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
KEPT THINGS DRY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS IN CO WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE
AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES ONTO THE
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLOWER TO SOME DEGREE AT
THE ONSET...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASING AFTER DARK AND
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z NAM
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE GFS/SREF WERE WEAKER
AND THE 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FAR EAST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LEXINGTON TO BEAVER CITY LINE IN CASE THE
00Z NAM VERIFIES. FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND
THUNDER IS LOOKING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LONGWAVE TROF WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN USA TODAY AND GRADUALLY
PROGRESS E THRU THE PLAINS THU...AND INTO THE ERN USA FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL DRIVE THE WX HERE
UNTIL THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PASSES THU.

ALOFT: AT DAYBREAK TUE A POTENT -TILT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A VERY NICE COMMA CLOUD ON IR/WV
SATELLITE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS VORT MAX WILL LIFT UP THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE RACING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AT THE
BASE OF THE BROADER TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL CROSS NEB/KS WED
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL BE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80 KT
UPPER-LVL JET MAX. THE FINAL COMBINED SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE TROF WILL
TRAIL BEHIND AND CROSS THE FCST AREA THU. CYCLONIC NW FLOW FOLLOWS
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLINIC SAT-SUN.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE PANHANDLE INTO SD
TUE MORNING AS WEEK COOL FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS NEB/KS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WED. THE NAM/EC HAVE IT JUST E OF THE FCST
AREA BY MIDDAY WED. THE 03Z SREF MEAN AND GFS HAVE IT JUST CLEARING
THE FCST AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE APPROACH OF THE FINAL TWO SHORTWAVE
TROFS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER KS. THIS LOW WILL HEAD FOR THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSES IN THU BEFORE A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING
THRU HERE THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DROP SE INTO THE PLAINS
FRI AND THEN HEADS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD SAT AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE. ITS COOL FRONT SHOULD
MOVE IN SUN.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS TUE-WED EVE. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR TSTMS IS SLATED FORO WED AFTERNOON-EVE. THE DETAILS
ARE BELOW.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE RACING
NE THRU THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND IT AS THE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS. IT SHOULD HAVE A NICE COMMA SHAPE.

THESE SHWRS COULD BE GUSTY...WITH POSSIBLE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE
40-45 KTS AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-LVL JET. 40 KT WINDS SHOULD BE AS LOW
AS 1000 FT.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. COOLING ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN
NEB DOWN INTO CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A LOW-
TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME ERN FRINGE OF THE
FCST AREA /OSCEOLA-HEBRON-BELOIT/.

USED BIAS CORRECTED SREF TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH HAS A NICE
DEPICTION OF LOW 80S OVER N-CNTRL KS.

TUE NIGHT: ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT VORT MAX. AGAIN...MOST OF THIS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST E OF THE FCST AREA...BUT N-CNTRL KS COULD GET IN ON THE
ACTION. MUCAPE IS ONLY FCST AROUND 500 J/KG.

WED: TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING PROBABLY JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND CONTINUED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION
OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.

THE SPC NOW HAS THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLGT FOR
SVR WX. WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.

THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2000
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE NEARING 50 KTS. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM S AND E OF TEHE TRI-CITIES. THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY...NOT ONLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT ALSO
BECAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED WITH THE LOW
OVER CNTRL KS. THE PRIMARY THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SVR HAIL.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED COULD RESULT IN A
RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

12AM-12PM THU: TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS/GEM/DGEX ARE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF RAIN THRU WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROF. IF THIS OCCURS...OUR HIGHS COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

FRI: PROBABLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. YESTERDAY IT WAS LOOKING
WINDY IN CAA. NOW JUST CAA WITHOUT THE WIND.

SAT AM CHILL: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS N OF I-80 TO RADIATE INTO THE 30S. WHILE TEMP
GUIDANCE IS NOT THREATENING...THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR FROST POTENTIAL WITH LATER FCSTS.

SAT-SUN: QUIET AND DRY WITH RECOVERING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE. FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN...BUT NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. A LINE
OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE COVERAGE
AREA...AFFECTING BOTH TERMINALS. SPECIFIC TIMING IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS POINT...ONCE ACTIVITY ACTUALLY FIRES OFF TO THE WEST
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT...AT THIS POINT HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF TIME COVERED. EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS FAR AS LLWS
SHEAR GOES...ITS PRETTY MARGINAL...AND THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IF ITS GOING TO HAPPEN...KGRI HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
KEAR...SO MADE THAT ADJUSTMENT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BOTH TERMINALS BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 291746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NV LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE DAYTIME HOURS
ARE STILL LOOKING MILD AHEAD THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH AFTN
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
READINGS NEAR 80F OR IN THE LOW 80S. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO
HOLD OFF THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING DURING
THE NIGHT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AXIS OF THE LLVL JET. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO
OUR WEST...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIFTING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE AREA OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS OUR
W/NW CWA AROUND MID DAY OR EARLY AFTN AND THE SPC WRF SUGGESTS
SCATTED CONVECTION MAY BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
KEPT THINGS DRY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS IN CO WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE
AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES ONTO THE
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLOWER TO SOME DEGREE AT
THE ONSET...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASING AFTER DARK AND
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z NAM
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE GFS/SREF WERE WEAKER
AND THE 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FAR EAST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LEXINGTON TO BEAVER CITY LINE IN CASE THE
00Z NAM VERIFIES. FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND
THUNDER IS LOOKING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LONGWAVE TROF WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN USA TODAY AND GRADUALLY
PROGRESS E THRU THE PLAINS THU...AND INTO THE ERN USA FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL DRIVE THE WX HERE
UNTIL THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PASSES THU.

ALOFT: AT DAYBREAK TUE A POTENT -TILT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A VERY NICE COMMA CLOUD ON IR/WV
SATELLITE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS VORT MAX WILL LIFT UP THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE RACING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AT THE
BASE OF THE BROADER TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL CROSS NEB/KS WED
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL BE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80 KT
UPPER-LVL JET MAX. THE FINAL COMBINED SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE TROF WILL
TRAIL BEHIND AND CROSS THE FCST AREA THU. CYCLONIC NW FLOW FOLLOWS
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLINIC SAT-SUN.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE PANHANDLE INTO SD
TUE MORNING AS WEEK COOL FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS NEB/KS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WED. THE NAM/EC HAVE IT JUST E OF THE FCST
AREA BY MIDDAY WED. THE 03Z SREF MEAN AND GFS HAVE IT JUST CLEARING
THE FCST AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE APPROACH OF THE FINAL TWO SHORTWAVE
TROFS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER KS. THIS LOW WILL HEAD FOR THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSES IN THU BEFORE A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING
THRU HERE THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DROP SE INTO THE PLAINS
FRI AND THEN HEADS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD SAT AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE. ITS COOL FRONT SHOULD
MOVE IN SUN.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS TUE-WED EVE. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR TSTMS IS SLATED FORO WED AFTERNOON-EVE. THE DETAILS
ARE BELOW.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE RACING
NE THRU THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND IT AS THE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS. IT SHOULD HAVE A NICE COMMA SHAPE.

THESE SHWRS COULD BE GUSTY...WITH POSSIBLE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE
40-45 KTS AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-LVL JET. 40 KT WINDS SHOULD BE AS LOW
AS 1000 FT.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. COOLING ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN
NEB DOWN INTO CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A LOW-
TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME ERN FRINGE OF THE
FCST AREA /OSCEOLA-HEBRON-BELOIT/.

USED BIAS CORRECTED SREF TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH HAS A NICE
DEPICTION OF LOW 80S OVER N-CNTRL KS.

TUE NIGHT: ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT VORT MAX. AGAIN...MOST OF THIS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST E OF THE FCST AREA...BUT N-CNTRL KS COULD GET IN ON THE
ACTION. MUCAPE IS ONLY FCST AROUND 500 J/KG.

WED: TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING PROBABLY JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND CONTINUED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION
OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.

THE SPC NOW HAS THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLGT FOR
SVR WX. WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.

THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2000
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE NEARING 50 KTS. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM S AND E OF TEHE TRI-CITIES. THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY...NOT ONLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT ALSO
BECAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED WITH THE LOW
OVER CNTRL KS. THE PRIMARY THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SVR HAIL.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED COULD RESULT IN A
RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

12AM-12PM THU: TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS/GEM/DGEX ARE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF RAIN THRU WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROF. IF THIS OCCURS...OUR HIGHS COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

FRI: PROBABLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. YESTERDAY IT WAS LOOKING
WINDY IN CAA. NOW JUST CAA WITHOUT THE WIND.

SAT AM CHILL: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS N OF I-80 TO RADIATE INTO THE 30S. WHILE TEMP
GUIDANCE IS NOT THREATENING...THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR FROST POTENTIAL WITH LATER FCSTS.

SAT-SUN: QUIET AND DRY WITH RECOVERING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE. FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN...BUT NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. A LINE
OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE COVERAGE
AREA...AFFECTING BOTH TERMINALS. SPECIFIC TIMING IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS POINT...ONCE ACTIVITY ACTUALLY FIRES OFF TO THE WEST
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT...AT THIS POINT HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF TIME COVERED. EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS FAR AS LLWS
SHEAR GOES...ITS PRETTY MARGINAL...AND THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IF ITS GOING TO HAPPEN...KGRI HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
KEAR...SO MADE THAT ADJUSTMENT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BOTH TERMINALS BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 291746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NV LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE DAYTIME HOURS
ARE STILL LOOKING MILD AHEAD THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH AFTN
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
READINGS NEAR 80F OR IN THE LOW 80S. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO
HOLD OFF THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING DURING
THE NIGHT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AXIS OF THE LLVL JET. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO
OUR WEST...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIFTING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE AREA OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS OUR
W/NW CWA AROUND MID DAY OR EARLY AFTN AND THE SPC WRF SUGGESTS
SCATTED CONVECTION MAY BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
KEPT THINGS DRY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS IN CO WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE
AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES ONTO THE
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLOWER TO SOME DEGREE AT
THE ONSET...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASING AFTER DARK AND
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z NAM
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE GFS/SREF WERE WEAKER
AND THE 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FAR EAST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LEXINGTON TO BEAVER CITY LINE IN CASE THE
00Z NAM VERIFIES. FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND
THUNDER IS LOOKING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LONGWAVE TROF WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN USA TODAY AND GRADUALLY
PROGRESS E THRU THE PLAINS THU...AND INTO THE ERN USA FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL DRIVE THE WX HERE
UNTIL THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PASSES THU.

ALOFT: AT DAYBREAK TUE A POTENT -TILT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A VERY NICE COMMA CLOUD ON IR/WV
SATELLITE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS VORT MAX WILL LIFT UP THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE RACING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AT THE
BASE OF THE BROADER TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL CROSS NEB/KS WED
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL BE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80 KT
UPPER-LVL JET MAX. THE FINAL COMBINED SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE TROF WILL
TRAIL BEHIND AND CROSS THE FCST AREA THU. CYCLONIC NW FLOW FOLLOWS
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLINIC SAT-SUN.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE PANHANDLE INTO SD
TUE MORNING AS WEEK COOL FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS NEB/KS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WED. THE NAM/EC HAVE IT JUST E OF THE FCST
AREA BY MIDDAY WED. THE 03Z SREF MEAN AND GFS HAVE IT JUST CLEARING
THE FCST AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE APPROACH OF THE FINAL TWO SHORTWAVE
TROFS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER KS. THIS LOW WILL HEAD FOR THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSES IN THU BEFORE A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING
THRU HERE THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DROP SE INTO THE PLAINS
FRI AND THEN HEADS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD SAT AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE. ITS COOL FRONT SHOULD
MOVE IN SUN.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS TUE-WED EVE. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR TSTMS IS SLATED FORO WED AFTERNOON-EVE. THE DETAILS
ARE BELOW.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE RACING
NE THRU THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND IT AS THE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS. IT SHOULD HAVE A NICE COMMA SHAPE.

THESE SHWRS COULD BE GUSTY...WITH POSSIBLE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE
40-45 KTS AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-LVL JET. 40 KT WINDS SHOULD BE AS LOW
AS 1000 FT.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. COOLING ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN
NEB DOWN INTO CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A LOW-
TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME ERN FRINGE OF THE
FCST AREA /OSCEOLA-HEBRON-BELOIT/.

USED BIAS CORRECTED SREF TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH HAS A NICE
DEPICTION OF LOW 80S OVER N-CNTRL KS.

TUE NIGHT: ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT VORT MAX. AGAIN...MOST OF THIS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST E OF THE FCST AREA...BUT N-CNTRL KS COULD GET IN ON THE
ACTION. MUCAPE IS ONLY FCST AROUND 500 J/KG.

WED: TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING PROBABLY JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND CONTINUED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION
OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.

THE SPC NOW HAS THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLGT FOR
SVR WX. WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.

THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2000
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE NEARING 50 KTS. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM S AND E OF TEHE TRI-CITIES. THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY...NOT ONLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT ALSO
BECAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED WITH THE LOW
OVER CNTRL KS. THE PRIMARY THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SVR HAIL.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED COULD RESULT IN A
RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

12AM-12PM THU: TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS/GEM/DGEX ARE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF RAIN THRU WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROF. IF THIS OCCURS...OUR HIGHS COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

FRI: PROBABLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. YESTERDAY IT WAS LOOKING
WINDY IN CAA. NOW JUST CAA WITHOUT THE WIND.

SAT AM CHILL: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS N OF I-80 TO RADIATE INTO THE 30S. WHILE TEMP
GUIDANCE IS NOT THREATENING...THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR FROST POTENTIAL WITH LATER FCSTS.

SAT-SUN: QUIET AND DRY WITH RECOVERING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SRLY
WINDS AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE. FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN...BUT NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. A LINE
OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE COVERAGE
AREA...AFFECTING BOTH TERMINALS. SPECIFIC TIMING IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS POINT...ONCE ACTIVITY ACTUALLY FIRES OFF TO THE WEST
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT...AT THIS POINT HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF TIME COVERED. EXPECTING THE GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS FAR AS LLWS
SHEAR GOES...ITS PRETTY MARGINAL...AND THE 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IF ITS GOING TO HAPPEN...KGRI HAS A BETTER CHANCE THAN
KEAR...SO MADE THAT ADJUSTMENT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
BOTH TERMINALS BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SENT OUT A MINOR UPDATE TO GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS EARLIER AND
WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE BY 1230 PM. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY LIFT IN CEDAR AND KNOX COUNTIES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OMAHA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE HELD DOWN UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656
J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR
ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS
AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO.

THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO
WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF
12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN
INTO SD.

TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5
RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  THE LLJ WEAKENS
AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW
STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH
THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT
MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 09Z AT KOFK...BY 12Z
AT KLNK AND BY 16Z AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SENT OUT A MINOR UPDATE TO GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS EARLIER AND
WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE BY 1230 PM. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY LIFT IN CEDAR AND KNOX COUNTIES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OMAHA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE HELD DOWN UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656
J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR
ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS
AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO.

THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO
WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF
12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN
INTO SD.

TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5
RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  THE LLJ WEAKENS
AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW
STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH
THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT
MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 09Z AT KOFK...BY 12Z
AT KLNK AND BY 16Z AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SENT OUT A MINOR UPDATE TO GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS EARLIER AND
WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE BY 1230 PM. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY LIFT IN CEDAR AND KNOX COUNTIES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OMAHA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE HELD DOWN UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656
J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR
ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS
AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO.

THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO
WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF
12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN
INTO SD.

TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5
RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  THE LLJ WEAKENS
AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW
STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH
THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT
MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 09Z AT KOFK...BY 12Z
AT KLNK AND BY 16Z AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SENT OUT A MINOR UPDATE TO GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS EARLIER AND
WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE BY 1230 PM. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY LIFT IN CEDAR AND KNOX COUNTIES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OMAHA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY BE HELD DOWN UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656
J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR
ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS
AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO.

THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO
WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF
12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN
INTO SD.

TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5
RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  THE LLJ WEAKENS
AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW
STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH
THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT
MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 09Z AT KOFK...BY 12Z
AT KLNK AND BY 16Z AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 291531
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1031 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
PRECIPITATION TRENDS BY INCREASING CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO DID SOME FINE TUNING ON
PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EVENTUALLY RAINFALL SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DELAYED THE ONSET OF HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

ALSO KEPT FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOW TO MOVE NORTH AND
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PRECLUDE THE FOG/STRATUS FROM LIFTING TOO QUICKLY THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH AM STARTING TO SEE SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS. THINK
THE FOG WILL LIFT...BUT STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL
LIKELY HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES SO DID DROP HIGHS A BIT IN THESE
AREAS TODAY.

STILL EVALUATING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME...NORTHEAST COLORADO LOOKS TO BE THE HOT-BED OF WHERE
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY FORM BUT ANY DEVIANCE FROM CURRENT MODELS
COULD ADJUST THAT LOCATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE CAP
BREAKING AROUND 18Z...SO EXPECTING THINGS TO GET GOING EARLY IN
THE DAY. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL
ENCOMPASS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA STILL UNCERTAIN IF STORMS CAN/WILL
BECOME SEVERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MID AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS THIS
MORNING WITH KVTN AND KANW REPORTING LOW VISBY. KANW ALSO
REPORTING DZ. MEANWHILE SHOWERS/THUNDER CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. FORECAST UPDATE SCALED POPS WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL INTO NW
NEB...EAST OF THE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOG AND STRATUS TO IMPACT KVTN THIS MORNING...MEANWHILE STORM
SYSTEM GAINING STRENGTH TO THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
N ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR
KVTN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
STILL THINKING BKN/OVC SKIES. PRECIP SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH FIRST SIGNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...GUSTING TO 25 KTS
TO 30 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR
FILLING IN BEHIND AND BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP IN TOMORROW
MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 291204
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
704 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS THIS
MORNING WITH KVTN AND KANW REPORTING LOW VISBY. KANW ALSO
REPORTING DZ. MEANWHILE SHOWERS/THUNDER CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. FORECAST UPDATE SCALED POPS WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL INTO NW
NEB...EAST OF THE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOG AND STRATUS TO IMPACT KVTN THIS MORNING...MEANWHILE STORM
SYSTEM GAINING STRENGTH TO THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
N ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR
KVTN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
STILL THINKING BKN/OVC SKIES. PRECIP SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH FIRST SIGNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...GUSTING TO 25 KTS
TO 30 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR
FILLING IN BEHIND AND BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP IN TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 291204
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
704 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS THIS
MORNING WITH KVTN AND KANW REPORTING LOW VISBY. KANW ALSO
REPORTING DZ. MEANWHILE SHOWERS/THUNDER CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. FORECAST UPDATE SCALED POPS WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL INTO NW
NEB...EAST OF THE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOG AND STRATUS TO IMPACT KVTN THIS MORNING...MEANWHILE STORM
SYSTEM GAINING STRENGTH TO THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
N ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR
KVTN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
STILL THINKING BKN/OVC SKIES. PRECIP SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH FIRST SIGNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...GUSTING TO 25 KTS
TO 30 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR
FILLING IN BEHIND AND BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP IN TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK






000
FXUS63 KOAX 291111
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656
J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR
ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS
AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO.

THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO
WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF
12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN
INTO SD.

TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5
RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  THE LLJ WEAKENS
AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW
STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH
THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT
MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID CLOUDS AT 9000-15000 FEET
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO AFFECT KOFK 09Z-12Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291111
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656
J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR
ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS
AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO.

THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO
WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF
12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN
INTO SD.

TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5
RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  THE LLJ WEAKENS
AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW
STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH
THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT
MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID CLOUDS AT 9000-15000 FEET
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO AFFECT KOFK 09Z-12Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KGID 291041
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
541 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NV LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE DAYTIME HOURS
ARE STILL LOOKING MILD AHEAD THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH AFTN
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
READINGS NEAR 80F OR IN THE LOW 80S. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO
HOLD OFF THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING DURING
THE NIGHT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AXIS OF THE LLVL JET. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO
OUR WEST...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIFTING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE AREA OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS OUR
W/NW CWA AROUND MID DAY OR EARLY AFTN AND THE SPC WRF SUGGESTS
SCATTED CONVECTION MAY BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
KEPT THINGS DRY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS IN CO WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE
AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES ONTO THE
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLOWER TO SOME DEGREE AT
THE ONSET...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASING AFTER DARK AND
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z NAM
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE GFS/SREF WERE WEAKER
AND THE 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FAR EAST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LEXINGTON TO BEAVER CITY LINE IN CASE THE
00Z NAM VERIFIES. FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND
THUNDER IS LOOKING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LONGWAVE TROF WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN USA TODAY AND GRADUALLY
PROGRESS E THRU THE PLAINS THU...AND INTO THE ERN USA FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL DRIVE THE WX HERE
UNTIL THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PASSES THU.

ALOFT: AT DAYBREAK TUE A POTENT -TILT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A VERY NICE COMMA CLOUD ON IR/WV
SATELLITE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS VORT MAX WILL LIFT UP THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE RACING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AT THE
BASE OF THE BROADER TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL CROSS NEB/KS WED
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL BE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80 KT
UPPER-LVL JET MAX. THE FINAL COMBINED SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE TROF WILL
TRAIL BEHIND AND CROSS THE FCST AREA THU. CYCLONIC NW FLOW FOLLOWS
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLINIC SAT-SUN.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE PANHANDLE INTO SD
TUE MORNING AS WEEK COOL FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS NEB/KS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WED. THE NAM/EC HAVE IT JUST E OF THE FCST
AREA BY MIDDAY WED. THE 03Z SREF MEAN AND GFS HAVE IT JUST CLEARING
THE FCST AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE APPROACH OF THE FINAL TWO SHORTWAVE
TROFS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER KS. THIS LOW WILL HEAD FOR THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSES IN THU BEFORE A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING
THRU HERE THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DROP SE INTO THE PLAINS
FRI AND THEN HEADS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD SAT AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE. ITS COOL FRONT SHOULD
MOVE IN SUN.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS TUE-WED EVE. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR TSTMS IS SLATED FORO WED AFTERNOON-EVE. THE DETAILS
ARE BELOW.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE RACING
NE THRU THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND IT AS THE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS. IT SHOULD HAVE A NICE COMMA SHAPE.

THESE SHWRS COULD BE GUSTY...WITH POSSIBLE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE
40-45 KTS AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-LVL JET. 40 KT WINDS SHOULD BE AS LOW
AS 1000 FT.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. COOLING ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN
NEB DOWN INTO CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A LOW-
TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME ERN FRINGE OF THE
FCST AREA /OSCEOLA-HEBRON-BELOIT/.

USED BIAS CORRECTED SREF TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH HAS A NICE
DEPICTION OF LOW 80S OVER N-CNTRL KS.

TUE NIGHT: ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT VORT MAX. AGAIN...MOST OF THIS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST E OF THE FCST AREA...BUT N-CNTRL KS COULD GET IN ON THE
ACTION. MUCAPE IS ONLY FCST AROUND 500 J/KG.

WED: TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING PROBABLY JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND CONTINUED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION
OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.

THE SPC NOW HAS THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLGT FOR
SVR WX. WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.

THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2000
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE NEARING 50 KTS. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM S AND E OF TEHE TRI-CITIES. THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY...NOT ONLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT ALSO
BECAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED WITH THE LOW
OVER CNTRL KS. THE PRIMARY THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SVR HAIL.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED COULD RESULT IN A
RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

12AM-12PM THU: TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS/GEM/DGEX ARE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF RAIN THRU WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROF. IF THIS OCCURS...OUR HIGHS COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

FRI: PROBABLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. YESTERDAY IT WAS LOOKING
WINDY IN CAA. NOW JUST CAA WITHOUT THE WIND.

SAT AM CHILL: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS N OF I-80 TO RADIATE INTO THE 30S. WHILE TEMP
GUIDANCE IS NOT THREATENING...THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR FROST POTENTIAL WITH LATER FCSTS.

SAT-SUN: QUIET AND DRY WITH RECOVERING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH TIMING OF CONVECTION AS
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS..MOVE EASTWARD AND
REACH THE TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND JUST MENTIONED RAIN SHOWERS IN TAFS. ALSO WITH STRONGER WINDS
FORECAST ABOVE THE SFC INCLUDED LLWS FOR KEAR WITH KGRI BORDERLINE
FOR MENTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 290857
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
357 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NV LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE DAYTIME HOURS
ARE STILL LOOKING MILD AHEAD THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH AFTN
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
READINGS NEAR 80F OR IN THE LOW 80S. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO
HOLD OFF THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING DURING
THE NIGHT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AXIS OF THE LLVL JET. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO
OUR WEST...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIFTING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE AREA OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS OUR
W/NW CWA AROUND MID DAY OR EARLY AFTN AND THE SPC WRF SUGGESTS
SCATTED CONVECTION MAY BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
KEPT THINGS DRY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS IN CO WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE
AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES ONTO THE
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLOWER TO SOME DEGREE AT
THE ONSET...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASING AFTER DARK AND
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z NAM
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE GFS/SREF WERE WEAKER
AND THE 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FAR EAST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LEXINGTON TO BEAVER CITY LINE IN CASE THE
00Z NAM VERIFIES. FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND
THUNDER IS LOOKING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LONGWAVE TROF WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN USA TODAY AND GRADUALLY
PROGRESS E THRU THE PLAINS THU...AND INTO THE ERN USA FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL DRIVE THE WX HERE
UNTIL THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PASSES THU.

ALOFT: AT DAYBREAK TUE A POTENT -TILT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A VERY NICE COMMA CLOUD ON IR/WV
SATELLITE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS VORT MAX WILL LIFT UP THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE RACING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AT THE
BASE OF THE BROADER TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL CROSS NEB/KS WED
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL BE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80 KT
UPPER-LVL JET MAX. THE FINAL COMBINED SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE TROF WILL
TRAIL BEHIND AND CROSS THE FCST AREA THU. CYCLONIC NW FLOW FOLLOWS
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLINIC SAT-SUN.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE PANHANDLE INTO SD
TUE MORNING AS WEEK COOL FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS NEB/KS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WED. THE NAM/EC HAVE IT JUST E OF THE FCST
AREA BY MIDDAY WED. THE 03Z SREF MEAN AND GFS HAVE IT JUST CLEARING
THE FCST AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE APPROACH OF THE FINAL TWO SHORTWAVE
TROFS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER KS. THIS LOW WILL HEAD FOR THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSES IN THU BEFORE A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING
THRU HERE THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DROP SE INTO THE PLAINS
FRI AND THEN HEADS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD SAT AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE. ITS COOL FRONT SHOULD
MOVE IN SUN.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS TUE-WED EVE. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR TSTMS IS SLATED FORO WED AFTERNOON-EVE. THE DETAILS
ARE BELOW.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE RACING
NE THRU THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND IT AS THE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS. IT SHOULD HAVE A NICE COMMA SHAPE.

THESE SHWRS COULD BE GUSTY...WITH POSSIBLE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE
40-45 KTS AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-LVL JET. 40 KT WINDS SHOULD BE AS LOW
AS 1000 FT.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. COOLING ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN
NEB DOWN INTO CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A LOW-
TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME ERN FRINGE OF THE
FCST AREA /OSCEOLA-HEBRON-BELOIT/.

USED BIAS CORRECTED SREF TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH HAS A NICE
DEPICTION OF LOW 80S OVER N-CNTRL KS.

TUE NIGHT: ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT VORT MAX. AGAIN...MOST OF THIS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST E OF THE FCST AREA...BUT N-CNTRL KS COULD GET IN ON THE
ACTION. MUCAPE IS ONLY FCST AROUND 500 J/KG.

WED: TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING PROBABLY JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND CONTINUED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION
OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.

THE SPC NOW HAS THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLGT FOR
SVR WX. WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.

THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2000
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE NEARING 50 KTS. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM S AND E OF TEHE TRI-CITIES. THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY...NOT ONLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT ALSO
BECAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED WITH THE LOW
OVER CNTRL KS. THE PRIMARY THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SVR HAIL.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED COULD RESULT IN A
RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

12AM-12PM THU: TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS/GEM/DGEX ARE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF RAIN THRU WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROF. IF THIS OCCURS...OUR HIGHS COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

FRI: PROBABLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. YESTERDAY IT WAS LOOKING
WINDY IN CAA. NOW JUST CAA WITHOUT THE WIND.

SAT AM CHILL: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS N OF I-80 TO RADIATE INTO THE 30S. WHILE TEMP
GUIDANCE IS NOT THREATENING...THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR FROST POTENTIAL WITH LATER FCSTS.

SAT-SUN: QUIET AND DRY WITH RECOVERING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTN WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE JUST BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES
ONTO THE PLAINS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KGID 290857
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
357 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NV LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE DAYTIME HOURS
ARE STILL LOOKING MILD AHEAD THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH AFTN
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
READINGS NEAR 80F OR IN THE LOW 80S. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO
HOLD OFF THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING DURING
THE NIGHT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AXIS OF THE LLVL JET. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO
OUR WEST...WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIFTING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE AREA OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS OUR
W/NW CWA AROUND MID DAY OR EARLY AFTN AND THE SPC WRF SUGGESTS
SCATTED CONVECTION MAY BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA.
HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
KEPT THINGS DRY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS IN CO WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP
INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE
AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES ONTO THE
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLOWER TO SOME DEGREE AT
THE ONSET...WITH CHANCES FOR PCPN INCREASING AFTER DARK AND
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 00Z NAM
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHILE THE GFS/SREF WERE WEAKER
AND THE 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF A BIT. NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FAR EAST...BUT WILL INCLUDE A STRONG STORM MENTION
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LEXINGTON TO BEAVER CITY LINE IN CASE THE
00Z NAM VERIFIES. FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND
THUNDER IS LOOKING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A LONGWAVE TROF WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN USA TODAY AND GRADUALLY
PROGRESS E THRU THE PLAINS THU...AND INTO THE ERN USA FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL DRIVE THE WX HERE
UNTIL THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PASSES THU.

ALOFT: AT DAYBREAK TUE A POTENT -TILT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A VERY NICE COMMA CLOUD ON IR/WV
SATELLITE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS VORT MAX WILL LIFT UP THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE RACING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AT THE
BASE OF THE BROADER TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL CROSS NEB/KS WED
MORNING. THIS TROF WILL BE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 80 KT
UPPER-LVL JET MAX. THE FINAL COMBINED SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE TROF WILL
TRAIL BEHIND AND CROSS THE FCST AREA THU. CYCLONIC NW FLOW FOLLOWS
FRI AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLINIC SAT-SUN.

SURFACE: DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE PANHANDLE INTO SD
TUE MORNING AS WEEK COOL FRONT PRESSES IN FROM THE W. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS NEB/KS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED WED. THE NAM/EC HAVE IT JUST E OF THE FCST
AREA BY MIDDAY WED. THE 03Z SREF MEAN AND GFS HAVE IT JUST CLEARING
THE FCST AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE APPROACH OF THE FINAL TWO SHORTWAVE
TROFS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER KS. THIS LOW WILL HEAD FOR THE
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSES IN THU BEFORE A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING
THRU HERE THU NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DROP SE INTO THE PLAINS
FRI AND THEN HEADS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SAT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD SAT AS A CLIPPER DIVES SE. ITS COOL FRONT SHOULD
MOVE IN SUN.

HAZARDS: MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR TSTMS TUE-WED EVE. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR TSTMS IS SLATED FORO WED AFTERNOON-EVE. THE DETAILS
ARE BELOW.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE RACING
NE THRU THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND IT AS THE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAICS. IT SHOULD HAVE A NICE COMMA SHAPE.

THESE SHWRS COULD BE GUSTY...WITH POSSIBLE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE
40-45 KTS AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-LVL JET. 40 KT WINDS SHOULD BE AS LOW
AS 1000 FT.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. COOLING ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY...BUT THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN
NEB DOWN INTO CNTRL KS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A LOW-
TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME ERN FRINGE OF THE
FCST AREA /OSCEOLA-HEBRON-BELOIT/.

USED BIAS CORRECTED SREF TEMPS FOR HIGHS WHICH HAS A NICE
DEPICTION OF LOW 80S OVER N-CNTRL KS.

TUE NIGHT: ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT VORT MAX. AGAIN...MOST OF THIS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST E OF THE FCST AREA...BUT N-CNTRL KS COULD GET IN ON THE
ACTION. MUCAPE IS ONLY FCST AROUND 500 J/KG.

WED: TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING PROBABLY JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF AND CONTINUED
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT VIA THE JET DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION
OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.

THE SPC NOW HAS THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA OUTLOOKED IN A SLGT FOR
SVR WX. WE ARE IN AGREEMENT.

THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 2000
J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE NEARING 50 KTS. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM S AND E OF TEHE TRI-CITIES. THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT WILL BE KEY...NOT ONLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BUT ALSO
BECAUSE WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED WITH THE LOW
OVER CNTRL KS. THE PRIMARY THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SVR HAIL.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED COULD RESULT IN A
RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

12AM-12PM THU: TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS/GEM/DGEX ARE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF RAIN THRU WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROF. IF THIS OCCURS...OUR HIGHS COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.

FRI: PROBABLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. YESTERDAY IT WAS LOOKING
WINDY IN CAA. NOW JUST CAA WITHOUT THE WIND.

SAT AM CHILL: HIGH PRES WILL BE OVERHEAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS N OF I-80 TO RADIATE INTO THE 30S. WHILE TEMP
GUIDANCE IS NOT THREATENING...THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR FROST POTENTIAL WITH LATER FCSTS.

SAT-SUN: QUIET AND DRY WITH RECOVERING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTN WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE JUST BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES
ONTO THE PLAINS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290855
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656
J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR
ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS
AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO.

THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO
WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF
12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN
INTO SD.

TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5
RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  THE LLJ WEAKENS
AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW
STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH
THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT
MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN MAINLY NERN NEBR TONIGHT
BUT CHANCES STILL APPEARED TO LOW TO MENTION IN KOFK TAF.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/06Z WITH MAINLY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH CIGS AROUND OR
BELOW FL010 BEHIND IT...EXTENDED FROM NCNTRL NEBR INTO ERN SD.
THIS FRONT SHOULD RMN TO THE NORTH OF KOFK THROUGH 30/06Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290855
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY...HOW
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...THEN TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD INCREASED TO 1.16 INCHES PWAT WITH 656
J/KG CAPE AND LITTLE CIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR
ECHOES FOR PLACING ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING...BUT EARLY MORNING
RETURNS HAVE BEEN FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.
LIGHTNING WAS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN CLUSTERS OVER THE BLACKHILLS
AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER PARTS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO.

THE UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A LARGE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA...A
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST...AND A MORE SHEARED OUT H5 TROF OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE WAS ABUNDANT H7 MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...TO
WHERE HURRICANE RACHEL IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. H85 MOISTURE OF
12-14DEG C WAS POOLED IN THE VICINITY OF THE H85 FRONT FROM MN
INTO SD.

TODAY...THERE IS SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST TO MONTANA/WYOMING/COLORADO...WITH THE H5
RIDGE SHARPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT NEAR SIOUX FALLS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SIOUX CITY...MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS
INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 25 TO 30KTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESULT
OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THE SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH
NORTH OF ONEILL...WHILE THE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SIOUX CITY ARE
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLOUD BEARING WINDS.  THE LLJ WEAKENS
AFTER 12Z TO 15KTS...SO LOOK FOR COVERAGE TO DECREASE. A FEW
STORMS COULD THEN RE- FIRE WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED MENTION FOR SHRA/-TSRA IN FOR A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH
THAT BACKDOOR FRONT AS THIS WOULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE SD BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
80 TO 85...HOWEVER MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN THE NORTH COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

120M HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT
AND TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY WITH THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COMBINED WITH H7 OMEGA...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY. INSTABILITY
INCREASES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KT
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER FORCING QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO THE
BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROF AND A POSSIBLY A THIRD WAVE THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EACH
PASSING WAVE. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT
MON SEP 29 2014

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN MAINLY NERN NEBR TONIGHT
BUT CHANCES STILL APPEARED TO LOW TO MENTION IN KOFK TAF.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/06Z WITH MAINLY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH CIGS AROUND OR
BELOW FL010 BEHIND IT...EXTENDED FROM NCNTRL NEBR INTO ERN SD.
THIS FRONT SHOULD RMN TO THE NORTH OF KOFK THROUGH 30/06Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KLBF 290854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS LOOKS TO
BUILD INTO KVTN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VLIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF
VALENTINE UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 290854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS LOOKS TO
BUILD INTO KVTN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VLIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF
VALENTINE UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 290536
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTED WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WITH MORE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN ANEW AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS LOOKS TO
BUILD INTO KVTN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VLIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF
VALENTINE UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 290536
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTED WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WITH MORE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN ANEW AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS LOOKS TO
BUILD INTO KVTN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VLIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF
VALENTINE UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 290536
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTED WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WITH MORE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN ANEW AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS LOOKS TO
BUILD INTO KVTN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VLIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF
VALENTINE UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 290536
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTED WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WITH MORE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN ANEW AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS LOOKS TO
BUILD INTO KVTN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VLIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF
VALENTINE UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KGID 290520
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1220 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTN WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE JUST BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES
ONTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 290520
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1220 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTN WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE JUST BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES
ONTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 290436
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MORNING MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING EVOLUTION
OF GREAT BASIN LOW AND SFC REFLECTION LIFTING OUT OF HIGH PLAINS
INTO S-CNTRL CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEGINNING
MONDAY...VORT MAX AT BASE OF CLOSED CIRCULATION GETS EJECTED ON
MONDAY AND INTENSIFIES AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. BY 12Z TUES...SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED
OVER WRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO IA/IL ALONG WITH A
STEADY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. INITIATION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OUT WEST WITHIN DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
LIFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...VIA POTENT VORT MAX...WILL
ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH ASCENT GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
THE CWA TUES/TUES NIGHT. WED/WED NIGHT...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT TO
HELP GRADUALLY PUSH CONCENTRATION OF MOIST/FORCING EAST OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY THEN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS MODELS DEVELOP A
DEEP/BROAD LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS IT
INTO THE ERN CONUS NEXT SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO SURGE SWD INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE CAA BEING REALIZED FRI OVER THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN MAINLY NERN NEBR TONIGHT
BUT CHANCES STILL APPEARED TO LOW TO MENTION IN KOFK TAF.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/06Z WITH MAINLY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH CIGS AROUND OR
BELOW FL010 BEHIND IT...EXTENDED FROM NCNTRL NEBR INTO ERN SD.
THIS FRONT SHOULD RMN TO THE NORTH OF KOFK THROUGH 30/06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 290436
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MORNING MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING EVOLUTION
OF GREAT BASIN LOW AND SFC REFLECTION LIFTING OUT OF HIGH PLAINS
INTO S-CNTRL CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEGINNING
MONDAY...VORT MAX AT BASE OF CLOSED CIRCULATION GETS EJECTED ON
MONDAY AND INTENSIFIES AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. BY 12Z TUES...SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED
OVER WRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO IA/IL ALONG WITH A
STEADY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. INITIATION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OUT WEST WITHIN DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
LIFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...VIA POTENT VORT MAX...WILL
ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH ASCENT GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
THE CWA TUES/TUES NIGHT. WED/WED NIGHT...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT TO
HELP GRADUALLY PUSH CONCENTRATION OF MOIST/FORCING EAST OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY THEN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS MODELS DEVELOP A
DEEP/BROAD LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS IT
INTO THE ERN CONUS NEXT SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO SURGE SWD INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE CAA BEING REALIZED FRI OVER THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN MAINLY NERN NEBR TONIGHT
BUT CHANCES STILL APPEARED TO LOW TO MENTION IN KOFK TAF.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/06Z WITH MAINLY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH CIGS AROUND OR
BELOW FL010 BEHIND IT...EXTENDED FROM NCNTRL NEBR INTO ERN SD.
THIS FRONT SHOULD RMN TO THE NORTH OF KOFK THROUGH 30/06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 290436
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MORNING MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING EVOLUTION
OF GREAT BASIN LOW AND SFC REFLECTION LIFTING OUT OF HIGH PLAINS
INTO S-CNTRL CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEGINNING
MONDAY...VORT MAX AT BASE OF CLOSED CIRCULATION GETS EJECTED ON
MONDAY AND INTENSIFIES AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. BY 12Z TUES...SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED
OVER WRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO IA/IL ALONG WITH A
STEADY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. INITIATION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OUT WEST WITHIN DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
LIFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...VIA POTENT VORT MAX...WILL
ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH ASCENT GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
THE CWA TUES/TUES NIGHT. WED/WED NIGHT...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT TO
HELP GRADUALLY PUSH CONCENTRATION OF MOIST/FORCING EAST OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY THEN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS MODELS DEVELOP A
DEEP/BROAD LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS IT
INTO THE ERN CONUS NEXT SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO SURGE SWD INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE CAA BEING REALIZED FRI OVER THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN MAINLY NERN NEBR TONIGHT
BUT CHANCES STILL APPEARED TO LOW TO MENTION IN KOFK TAF.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/06Z WITH MAINLY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH CIGS AROUND OR
BELOW FL010 BEHIND IT...EXTENDED FROM NCNTRL NEBR INTO ERN SD.
THIS FRONT SHOULD RMN TO THE NORTH OF KOFK THROUGH 30/06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 290436
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MORNING MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING EVOLUTION
OF GREAT BASIN LOW AND SFC REFLECTION LIFTING OUT OF HIGH PLAINS
INTO S-CNTRL CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEGINNING
MONDAY...VORT MAX AT BASE OF CLOSED CIRCULATION GETS EJECTED ON
MONDAY AND INTENSIFIES AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. BY 12Z TUES...SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED
OVER WRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO IA/IL ALONG WITH A
STEADY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. INITIATION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OUT WEST WITHIN DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
LIFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...VIA POTENT VORT MAX...WILL
ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH ASCENT GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
THE CWA TUES/TUES NIGHT. WED/WED NIGHT...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT TO
HELP GRADUALLY PUSH CONCENTRATION OF MOIST/FORCING EAST OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY THEN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS MODELS DEVELOP A
DEEP/BROAD LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS IT
INTO THE ERN CONUS NEXT SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO SURGE SWD INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE CAA BEING REALIZED FRI OVER THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN MAINLY NERN NEBR TONIGHT
BUT CHANCES STILL APPEARED TO LOW TO MENTION IN KOFK TAF.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/06Z WITH MAINLY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH CIGS AROUND OR
BELOW FL010 BEHIND IT...EXTENDED FROM NCNTRL NEBR INTO ERN SD.
THIS FRONT SHOULD RMN TO THE NORTH OF KOFK THROUGH 30/06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KLBF 290406 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTED WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WITH MORE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN ANEW AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME ISOLATED STORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND THEN LATER TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE CONTINUED
VCSH FOR KVTN TAF SITE OVER NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE.
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 290406 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTED WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WITH MORE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN ANEW AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME ISOLATED STORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND THEN LATER TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE CONTINUED
VCSH FOR KVTN TAF SITE OVER NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE.
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 290003 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
703 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN ANEW AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME ISOLATED STORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND THEN LATER TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE CONTINUED
VCSH FOR KVTN TAF SITE OVER NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE.
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 290003 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
703 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN ANEW AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME ISOLATED STORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND THEN LATER TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE CONTINUED
VCSH FOR KVTN TAF SITE OVER NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE.
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KGID 282323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND MAY GUST A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 282323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND MAY GUST A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 282323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND MAY GUST A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 282323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WIND MAY GUST A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MORNING MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING EVOLUTION
OF GREAT BASIN LOW AND SFC REFLECTION LIFTING OUT OF HIGH PLAINS
INTO S-CNTRL CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEGINNING
MONDAY...VORT MAX AT BASE OF CLOSED CIRCULATION GETS EJECTED ON
MONDAY AND INTENSIFIES AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. BY 12Z TUES...SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED
OVER WRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO IA/IL ALONG WITH A
STEADY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. INITIATION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OUT WEST WITHIN DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
LIFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...VIA POTENT VORT MAX...WILL
ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH ASCENT GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
THE CWA TUES/TUES NIGHT. WED/WED NIGHT...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT TO
HELP GRADUALLY PUSH CONCENTRATION OF MOIST/FORCING EAST OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY THEN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS MODELS DEVELOP A
DEEP/BROAD LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS IT
INTO THE ERN CONUS NEXT SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO SURGE SWD INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE CAA BEING REALIZED FRI OVER THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY IN NERN NEBR AND MOSTLY THIS
EVENING...COULD POSSIBLY IMPACT KOFK...BUT CHANCES WERE PRETTY
REMOTE AND THUS LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WERE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z/30 AS AREA GENERALLY
REMAINED UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT THROUGH THAT TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MORNING MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING EVOLUTION
OF GREAT BASIN LOW AND SFC REFLECTION LIFTING OUT OF HIGH PLAINS
INTO S-CNTRL CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEGINNING
MONDAY...VORT MAX AT BASE OF CLOSED CIRCULATION GETS EJECTED ON
MONDAY AND INTENSIFIES AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. BY 12Z TUES...SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED
OVER WRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO IA/IL ALONG WITH A
STEADY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. INITIATION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OUT WEST WITHIN DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
LIFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...VIA POTENT VORT MAX...WILL
ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH ASCENT GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
THE CWA TUES/TUES NIGHT. WED/WED NIGHT...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT TO
HELP GRADUALLY PUSH CONCENTRATION OF MOIST/FORCING EAST OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY THEN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS MODELS DEVELOP A
DEEP/BROAD LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS IT
INTO THE ERN CONUS NEXT SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO SURGE SWD INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE CAA BEING REALIZED FRI OVER THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY IN NERN NEBR AND MOSTLY THIS
EVENING...COULD POSSIBLY IMPACT KOFK...BUT CHANCES WERE PRETTY
REMOTE AND THUS LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WERE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z/30 AS AREA GENERALLY
REMAINED UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT THROUGH THAT TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 282023
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
323 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
BKN TO OVC SKIES LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KVTN TERMINAL AS THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY UNTIL NEAR MID MORNING MONDAY. HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO TREND THE WIND FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MESO-
SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT /AROUND 06Z/ BUT ARE CURRENTLY
KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CHANGED
SHOWERS TO VCSH RATHER THAN PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE STORM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST PULLS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
FOR THE TAF SITES SO NO THUNDER IS INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 282023
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
323 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
BKN TO OVC SKIES LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KVTN TERMINAL AS THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY UNTIL NEAR MID MORNING MONDAY. HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO TREND THE WIND FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MESO-
SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT /AROUND 06Z/ BUT ARE CURRENTLY
KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CHANGED
SHOWERS TO VCSH RATHER THAN PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE STORM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST PULLS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
FOR THE TAF SITES SO NO THUNDER IS INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 282023
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
323 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
BKN TO OVC SKIES LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KVTN TERMINAL AS THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY UNTIL NEAR MID MORNING MONDAY. HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO TREND THE WIND FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MESO-
SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT /AROUND 06Z/ BUT ARE CURRENTLY
KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CHANGED
SHOWERS TO VCSH RATHER THAN PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE STORM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST PULLS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
FOR THE TAF SITES SO NO THUNDER IS INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 282023
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
323 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
BKN TO OVC SKIES LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KVTN TERMINAL AS THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY UNTIL NEAR MID MORNING MONDAY. HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO TREND THE WIND FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MESO-
SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT /AROUND 06Z/ BUT ARE CURRENTLY
KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CHANGED
SHOWERS TO VCSH RATHER THAN PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE STORM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST PULLS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
FOR THE TAF SITES SO NO THUNDER IS INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KGID 282017
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
317 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THIN OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR
WEST...WITH WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 20KTS OR GREATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. ANY LOWER CEILINGS AND CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD FOR THE
TAFS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 282017
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
317 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAD TROUBLE HANDLING ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT
GIVEN ITS VERY ISOLATED NATURE...THIS WAS REALLY OF NO SURPRISE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A REPEAT TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED FURTHER WEST...IN ADDITION
TO THE FACT WE WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...SIDED TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FRINGES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER THAN A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND
POPS...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT WITH ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL EVENING EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FALL DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST POINTS WILL INCLUDE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH BEGINS
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TUESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
BEFORE EXITING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
AVERAGE MOST UNSTABLE VALUES RANGING FROM A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH ALMOST 2500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURING
THE SAME TIME THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE. THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SITUATION. CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY HIGH. THERE
VERY WELL COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE OUTLOOK
AREA BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITES WHERE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SITUATED. IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WE COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AND THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPE IS LIMITED BUT BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GET PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ANYTHING THAT LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR
DEVELOPS THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS OVER THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE BEGIN A
WARMING TREND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOWS OVER THIS TIME WILL
FOLLOW SIMILAR SUIT. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WERE SITTING CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 40S IN THERE FOR
LOWS BUT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR
COOL TREND BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL FROST...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. ORD WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO GET DOWN TO 37
DEGREES...BUT THE RECENT FORECAST HAS 40 DEGREES IN THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THIN OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR
WEST...WITH WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 20KTS OR GREATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. ANY LOWER CEILINGS AND CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD FOR THE
TAFS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...ROSSI




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities