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000
FXUS63 KGID 300945
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
445 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SHORT TERM IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. TODAY WE WILL BE IN
A REGION OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP US DRY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH IS STILL STATIONARY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. WE COULD GET SOME PATCHY FOG NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING AS RECENT RAIN OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND CALM WIND ALONG WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NOT MUCH
REDUCTION AND VISIBILITY HAS OCCURRED YET...BUT COULD VERY WELL DO
SO TOWARD SUNRISE.

AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES...THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENTER OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT AND BRING IN SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION TYPE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WEAK AS WELL. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY.

I KEPT SATURDAY HIGHS AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...LEANING MORE TOWARD CONSRAW FOR LOWS SATURDAY
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

EXPECTING AN ACTIVE PATTERN RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING TO SEE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...AS A TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE CWA IS PRIMARILY
INFLUENCED BY A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. KEPT THE INHERITED SMALL POPS
GOING DURING THE MORNING...WHILE MODELS ARENT IT TOTAL
AGREEMENT...SOME STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...THANKS TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND TO INCREASED LIFT
VIA A STRONGER LLJ IN PLACE.

SHOULD ACTIVITY AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING IT TO BE SEVERE...AND EXPECT IT TO SHIFT EAST AND TAPER
OFF WITH TIME AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. THINKING THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE LENGTH OF THE BREAK DEPENDS ON THE MODEL.
VARY FROM THINGS HOLDING OFF WELL INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
THANKS AT LEAST IN PART TO WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS HELPING KEEP
THINGS CAPPED...WHILE OTHERS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THINGS TO FIRE A
LITTLE SOONER DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS AND ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY IN
FROM THE WEST.  DECIDED TO KEEP THE 20-30 POPS GOING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...THEN RAMPING THEM UP INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE PRIOR
TO 00Z. CONTINUED THE THINKING IN THE GRIDS THAT THE BEST CHANCES
WILL COME DURING THE EVENING HOURS POST-00Z...AND THE LIKELY POPS
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM PASSAGE...AND HAVE
POPS TAPERING BACK QUICKLY 06-12Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY.

HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THINKING IN REGARD TO
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AND THE CWA REMAINS IN THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK AREA FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE STARTING TO JUST CREEP INTO FAR NW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...AND NOT NECESSARILY MAKING A NOTABLE EASTWARD SHIFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...IT MAKES MORE PROGRESS WITH THE BETTER PUSH
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPS IN THE 80S/LOWER 90S
EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING INSTABILITY NOT BEING MUCH OF A CONCERN ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...WITH SOME /MAINLY THE NAM/ SHOWING SOME
HEFTY MUCAPE VALUES...AND SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS BETTER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN LATELY.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE TORNADIC THREAT...ESP FOR ANY STORMS THAT ARE MORE DISCRETE
BEFORE MORE OF A LINEAR MODE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SFC FRONT.

AS MENTIONED...THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE FORECAST FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
REMAINS A DRY ONE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE REGION
CONTINUING BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING...BUT THE BETTER LIFT HAS SHIFTED EAST. THE SFC COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED THE CWA TO THE E/SE NEAR SUNRISE...WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE DAY AND BRINGING DIMINISHING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. A COOLER AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING THAT HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER/MID 80S WITH DPTS IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST.  KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY THE ECMWF
/TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM/ STILL SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
WAVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN ITS
OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH. OTHERWISE...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL POPS RETURNING THUR NIGHT/FRIDAY.
TEMPS LOOK TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 80S/90S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SOME LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE FROM LIGHT WIND AND RECENT
SATURATION OF SOIL. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST
AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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000
FXUS63 KOAX 300835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 08Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS
BETWEEN FL005 AND FL012 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE LIKELY 08Z TO 15Z.
THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 300835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 08Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS
BETWEEN FL005 AND FL012 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE LIKELY 08Z TO 15Z.
THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN



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000
FXUS63 KLBF 300828
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SW NEB THROUGH SUNRISE WHILE STRATUS CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ERN SD. RAP LOW LEVEL RH PROGS WOULD SUGGEST THE
STRATUS WILL SAG TO NEAR THE NIOBRARA VALLEY BY 12-15Z OR SO AND THE
HRRR HAS LOW CLOUDS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR
THAT. PREVIOUS FCST HAD MENTION OF FOG ALSO IN THE NERN ZONES AS A
RESULT OF PREVIOUS 24 HR RAINFALL AND BELIEVE THAT THIS WOULD ALSO
BE ALONG THE FRINGE OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH IS A TYPICAL EVOLUTION
ANYWAY. SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG AS IT WAS...MORE PATCHY TWD
THE SWRN PORTION OF THE AREA...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. ON THE LARGER SCALE...A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE NRN STREAM REMAINS
ACTIVE...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.
NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A LEAD PV
ANOMALY MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN SD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF SRLY WINDS AND
DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE /WHICH WILL BE RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE DAY/
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL EXIST. THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT RETREATS DURING THE DAY...BUT DEEP LAYER
LIFT DOES NOT LOOK EVIDENT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CREEP A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE...MOST
NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LEAD PV ANOMALY /WHICH IS BEST DEFINED INITIALLY
BY 30.00Z GFS/ WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE POSITION.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IS WEAK INITIALLY BUT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA WHICH WILL MOVE EWD SAT EVE...THOUGH
LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS SUGGESTED BY WRN FCST SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PLAINS NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPS THROUGH SAT EVE WHICH WILL ADVECT
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSRA INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA LATE EVE AND EARLY MORNING. NAM/GEM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS THOUGH HIRES CAMS ARE NOT SO EAGER TO DEVELOP
PRECIP. GRIDS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSRA MENTION...PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48 TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE PATTERN DOES SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR EAST OF A KLBF TO KANW LINE WHERE THERMAL
ADVECTION IS SHOWN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. THE GFS...NAM...AND EC ALL SHOW CONVECTION FIRING IN
THIS AREA...SO GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF NOT ONLY THE FINER
DETAILS BUT ALSO THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...FELT THAT CONFIDENCE
WAS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY/S INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EAST /EAST OF A MAYWOOD TO NAPER LINE/...WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS
/40-50%/ FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANW TO KLBF LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...SO STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY REMOVED OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 06Z MONDAY. SFC TD/S ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS OUR EAST AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEP
LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH PROMOTE SB POTENTIAL ENERGY
IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG...ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE ANTICIPATED. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE MODELS PEGGING UPWARDS OF 40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD QUICKLY
CONGEAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
BAND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND INTO THE
EVENING.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE
TIMING OF THE EXITING TROUGH...MOST NOTABLY...THE EC RETAINS A PIECE
OF ENERGY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT BRINGS IT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE EC GENERATES LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  THE GFS IN COMPARISON IS DRY AND LACKS
MUCH OF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THIS ADDITIONAL TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD AND SCALED BACK
POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
MENTION GOING.

BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY...THE CR ALLBLEND PROCEDURE PROJECTED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND THERE ARE NO ARGUMENTS
HERE AS AN OVERALL LACK OF OMEGA WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTS NORTH AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
CONUS.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING
OFF THIS SOLUTION A BIT...FOCUSING THE BEST POTENTIAL WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA.  WILL KEEP THE PROCEDURE UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VIOLENT TEMPERATURE CHANGES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO COME MID-WEEK...AS HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.  OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST DAYS.  LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S SEEM TO BE THE NORM
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE STORMS THAT OCCURRED FROM VTN-LBF AND EAST LEFT A MOIST COOL
NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THE COOL MOIST AIR...CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW PATCHES OF FG/BR. THE AREA
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WOULD BE ONL-BBW WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEFT SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS THIS PAST
EVENING. THE RAPID REFRESH SHORT RANGE MODELS POINT TO VISIBILITY
LESS THAN 3SM ALONG AND EAST OF A VTN-ANW-BUB LINE WITH LESS THAN
1SM POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN WAS ACTUALLY EAST OF
THAT LINE AND THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT DISLOCATION
OF THAT AS INPUT AND THAT WOULD SKEW THE OUTPUT. THE TIMING OF THE
FG/BR WILL BE 10-14Z. SINCE VTN DID NOT HAVE ANY RAIN THIS PAST
EVENING...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE BR (OR FG) IN ITS TERMINAL FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. THE INFLUENCE OF WETLANDS IN THE VICINITY OF LBF
WILL ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AND WE WILL
INCLUDE 2SM WITH BCFG AT LBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER/JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 300828
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SW NEB THROUGH SUNRISE WHILE STRATUS CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ERN SD. RAP LOW LEVEL RH PROGS WOULD SUGGEST THE
STRATUS WILL SAG TO NEAR THE NIOBRARA VALLEY BY 12-15Z OR SO AND THE
HRRR HAS LOW CLOUDS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR
THAT. PREVIOUS FCST HAD MENTION OF FOG ALSO IN THE NERN ZONES AS A
RESULT OF PREVIOUS 24 HR RAINFALL AND BELIEVE THAT THIS WOULD ALSO
BE ALONG THE FRINGE OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH IS A TYPICAL EVOLUTION
ANYWAY. SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG AS IT WAS...MORE PATCHY TWD
THE SWRN PORTION OF THE AREA...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. ON THE LARGER SCALE...A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE NRN STREAM REMAINS
ACTIVE...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.
NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A LEAD PV
ANOMALY MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN SD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF SRLY WINDS AND
DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE /WHICH WILL BE RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE DAY/
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL EXIST. THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT RETREATS DURING THE DAY...BUT DEEP LAYER
LIFT DOES NOT LOOK EVIDENT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CREEP A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE...MOST
NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LEAD PV ANOMALY /WHICH IS BEST DEFINED INITIALLY
BY 30.00Z GFS/ WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE POSITION.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IS WEAK INITIALLY BUT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA WHICH WILL MOVE EWD SAT EVE...THOUGH
LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS SUGGESTED BY WRN FCST SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PLAINS NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPS THROUGH SAT EVE WHICH WILL ADVECT
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSRA INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA LATE EVE AND EARLY MORNING. NAM/GEM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS THOUGH HIRES CAMS ARE NOT SO EAGER TO DEVELOP
PRECIP. GRIDS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSRA MENTION...PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48 TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE PATTERN DOES SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR EAST OF A KLBF TO KANW LINE WHERE THERMAL
ADVECTION IS SHOWN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. THE GFS...NAM...AND EC ALL SHOW CONVECTION FIRING IN
THIS AREA...SO GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF NOT ONLY THE FINER
DETAILS BUT ALSO THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...FELT THAT CONFIDENCE
WAS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY/S INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EAST /EAST OF A MAYWOOD TO NAPER LINE/...WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS
/40-50%/ FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANW TO KLBF LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...SO STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY REMOVED OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 06Z MONDAY. SFC TD/S ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS OUR EAST AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEP
LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH PROMOTE SB POTENTIAL ENERGY
IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG...ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE ANTICIPATED. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE MODELS PEGGING UPWARDS OF 40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD QUICKLY
CONGEAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
BAND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND INTO THE
EVENING.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE
TIMING OF THE EXITING TROUGH...MOST NOTABLY...THE EC RETAINS A PIECE
OF ENERGY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT BRINGS IT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE EC GENERATES LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  THE GFS IN COMPARISON IS DRY AND LACKS
MUCH OF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THIS ADDITIONAL TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD AND SCALED BACK
POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
MENTION GOING.

BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY...THE CR ALLBLEND PROCEDURE PROJECTED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND THERE ARE NO ARGUMENTS
HERE AS AN OVERALL LACK OF OMEGA WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTS NORTH AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
CONUS.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING
OFF THIS SOLUTION A BIT...FOCUSING THE BEST POTENTIAL WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA.  WILL KEEP THE PROCEDURE UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VIOLENT TEMPERATURE CHANGES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO COME MID-WEEK...AS HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.  OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST DAYS.  LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S SEEM TO BE THE NORM
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE STORMS THAT OCCURRED FROM VTN-LBF AND EAST LEFT A MOIST COOL
NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THE COOL MOIST AIR...CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW PATCHES OF FG/BR. THE AREA
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WOULD BE ONL-BBW WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEFT SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS THIS PAST
EVENING. THE RAPID REFRESH SHORT RANGE MODELS POINT TO VISIBILITY
LESS THAN 3SM ALONG AND EAST OF A VTN-ANW-BUB LINE WITH LESS THAN
1SM POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN WAS ACTUALLY EAST OF
THAT LINE AND THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT DISLOCATION
OF THAT AS INPUT AND THAT WOULD SKEW THE OUTPUT. THE TIMING OF THE
FG/BR WILL BE 10-14Z. SINCE VTN DID NOT HAVE ANY RAIN THIS PAST
EVENING...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE BR (OR FG) IN ITS TERMINAL FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. THE INFLUENCE OF WETLANDS IN THE VICINITY OF LBF
WILL ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AND WE WILL
INCLUDE 2SM WITH BCFG AT LBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER/JWS










000
FXUS63 KGID 300600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS FINALLY ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
SATELLITE HAS CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SECONDARY WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE ALREADY A FEW CUMULUS MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN THIS GETS CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE
FURTHER EAST THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THESE
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE EVENING.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL. WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...AS THE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
NEBRASKA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AND THEN OFF TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE...ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ZONAL JET ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE OUR AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THIS JET ENERGY THEN
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TUESDAY ONWARD. BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO START
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ON SUNDAY HOWEVER SHOULD ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THUS ALLOWING A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CLEAR OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SHOULD
THEN PRESENT ITSELF MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RETURN FLOW INFILTRATES THE AREA WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

STARTING WITH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF A 40-45KT JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL DEVELOP FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THIS AXIS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
ACROSS THE AREA...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT THE EC. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD
WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION POST-SUNRISE ON SUNDAY SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS DOES THE SAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY INTO SUNDAY EVENING
HOWEVER...THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE SHOULD PROMOTE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
OMEGA...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PASSING BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE A ZONE OF ENHANCED LIFT WHERE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY INITIATE. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 30-
50% POPS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POPS
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 70% SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE DO THE SAME. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY
ONWARD...BUT THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION COULD
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING
~20% POPS TO THESE FORECAST PERIODS. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED
FOR THE MOST PART.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASCENDING PARCELS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL ONLY HAVE A 100-
300J/KG TO WORK WITH. GIVEN THIS...WILL HOLD OFF FROM ANY MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS IN THE MID-
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES OF AROUND 2000J/KG...A
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. PERHAPS MORE
IMPRESSIVE...IS THE FACT MULTIPLE MODELS SUGGEST DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40KTS...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING 50KTS...WILL ALSO
BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME QUASI-LINEAR ALONG THE
ADVANCING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE...IF DEEP CONVECTION
CAN BE REALIZED AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THEN 0-1KM SRH VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 100M^2/S^2 AND PERHAPS APPROACHING 200M^2/S^2 SUGGEST
TORNADIC ACTIVITY ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE
INHERITED HWO...WHICH INCLUDES GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY...SEEMS RIGHT ON
AND THIS SAME MESSAGE WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SOME LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE FROM LIGHT WIND AND RECENT
SATURATION OF SOIL. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST
AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 300600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS FINALLY ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
SATELLITE HAS CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SECONDARY WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE ALREADY A FEW CUMULUS MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN THIS GETS CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE
FURTHER EAST THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THESE
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE EVENING.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL. WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...AS THE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
NEBRASKA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AND THEN OFF TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE...ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ZONAL JET ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE OUR AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THIS JET ENERGY THEN
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TUESDAY ONWARD. BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO START
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ON SUNDAY HOWEVER SHOULD ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THUS ALLOWING A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CLEAR OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SHOULD
THEN PRESENT ITSELF MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RETURN FLOW INFILTRATES THE AREA WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

STARTING WITH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF A 40-45KT JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL DEVELOP FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THIS AXIS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
ACROSS THE AREA...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT THE EC. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD
WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION POST-SUNRISE ON SUNDAY SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS DOES THE SAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY INTO SUNDAY EVENING
HOWEVER...THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE SHOULD PROMOTE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
OMEGA...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PASSING BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE A ZONE OF ENHANCED LIFT WHERE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY INITIATE. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 30-
50% POPS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POPS
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 70% SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE DO THE SAME. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY
ONWARD...BUT THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION COULD
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING
~20% POPS TO THESE FORECAST PERIODS. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED
FOR THE MOST PART.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASCENDING PARCELS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL ONLY HAVE A 100-
300J/KG TO WORK WITH. GIVEN THIS...WILL HOLD OFF FROM ANY MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS IN THE MID-
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES OF AROUND 2000J/KG...A
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. PERHAPS MORE
IMPRESSIVE...IS THE FACT MULTIPLE MODELS SUGGEST DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40KTS...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING 50KTS...WILL ALSO
BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME QUASI-LINEAR ALONG THE
ADVANCING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE...IF DEEP CONVECTION
CAN BE REALIZED AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THEN 0-1KM SRH VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 100M^2/S^2 AND PERHAPS APPROACHING 200M^2/S^2 SUGGEST
TORNADIC ACTIVITY ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE
INHERITED HWO...WHICH INCLUDES GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY...SEEMS RIGHT ON
AND THIS SAME MESSAGE WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SOME LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE FROM LIGHT WIND AND RECENT
SATURATION OF SOIL. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST
AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 300525
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. FOR THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT...COMPACT PV ANOMALY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIT NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO A DAY OR TWO AGO. SHEAR
IS LIMITED AT BEST IN A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO ISOLATED
PULSE STORMS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AT BEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE COOLING...STORMS SHOULD BE OVER BY
03-04Z. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT A
RELATIVELY MOIST BL...FOG MAY BE A CONCERN FOR OUR EAST AND IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW AROUND THE DAWN HOURS.

TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF KINEMATIC
FORCING AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...STORMS AND/OR SHOWERS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.  AFTER PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE
50S SATURDAY MORNING...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE SHOULD MOSTLY BE ISOLATED AND
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR 30 PERCENT CHANCE IN
THE NORTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO BE
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND HAVE LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS TO 20 TO 40
PERCENT. AREAS EAST OF ONEILL THROUGH STOCKVILLE WILL HAVE A 40 TO
50 POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO WRN NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM EASTERN WY INTO WRN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED FROM EASTERN MT INTO EASTERN WYOMING
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND MAINTAINING
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE MID 80S TUESDAY TO THE  MID/UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN
KANSAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL SETTLE A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH POPS
APPROPRIATELY ADDED IN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGHS FRIDAY TO COOL TO THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE STORMS THAT OCCURRED FROM VTN-LBF AND EAST LEFT A MOIST COOL
NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THE COOL MOIST AIR...CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW PATCHES OF FG/BR. THE AREA
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WOULD BE ONL-BBW WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEFT SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS THIS PAST
EVENING. THE RAPID REFRESH SHORT RANGE MODELS POINT TO VISIBILITY
LESS THAN 3SM ALONG AND EAST OF A VTN-ANW-BUB LINE WITH LESS THAN
1SM POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN WAS ACTUALLY EAST OF
THAT LINE AND THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT DISLOCATION
OF THAT AS INPUT AND THAT WOULD SKEW THE OUTPUT. THE TIMING OF THE
FG/BR WILL BE 10-14Z. SINCE VTN DID NOT HAVE ANY RAIN THIS PAST
EVENING...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE BR (OR FG) IN ITS TERMINAL FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. THE INFLUENCE OF WETLANDS IN THE VICINITY OF LBF
WILL ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AND WE WILL
INCLUDE 2SM WITH BCFG AT LBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER/JWS






000
FXUS63 KOAX 300456
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 08Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS
BETWEEN FL005 AND FL012 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE LIKELY 08Z TO 15Z.
THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300456
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1156 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 08Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS
BETWEEN FL005 AND FL012 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE LIKELY 08Z TO 15Z.
THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KGID 292345
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
645 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS FINALLY ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
SATELLITE HAS CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SECONDARY WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE ALREADY A FEW CUMULUS MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN THIS GETS CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE
FURTHER EAST THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THESE
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE EVENING.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL. WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...AS THE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
NEBRASKA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AND THEN OFF TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE...ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ZONAL JET ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE OUR AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THIS JET ENERGY THEN
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TUESDAY ONWARD. BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO START
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ON SUNDAY HOWEVER SHOULD ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THUS ALLOWING A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CLEAR OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SHOULD
THEN PRESENT ITSELF MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RETURN FLOW INFILTRATES THE AREA WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

STARTING WITH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF A 40-45KT JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL DEVELOP FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THIS AXIS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
ACROSS THE AREA...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT THE EC. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD
WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION POST-SUNRISE ON SUNDAY SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS DOES THE SAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY INTO SUNDAY EVENING
HOWEVER...THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE SHOULD PROMOTE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
OMEGA...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PASSING BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE A ZONE OF ENHANCED LIFT WHERE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY INITIATE. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 30-
50% POPS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POPS
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 70% SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE DO THE SAME. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY
ONWARD...BUT THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION COULD
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING
~20% POPS TO THESE FORECAST PERIODS. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED
FOR THE MOST PART.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASCENDING PARCELS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL ONLY HAVE A 100-
300J/KG TO WORK WITH. GIVEN THIS...WILL HOLD OFF FROM ANY MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS IN THE MID-
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES OF AROUND 2000J/KG...A
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. PERHAPS MORE
IMPRESSIVE...IS THE FACT MULTIPLE MODELS SUGGEST DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40KTS...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING 50KTS...WILL ALSO
BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME QUASI-LINEAR ALONG THE
ADVANCING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE...IF DEEP CONVECTION
CAN BE REALIZED AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THEN 0-1KM SRH VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 100M^2/S^2 AND PERHAPS APPROACHING 200M^2/S^2 SUGGEST
TORNADIC ACTIVITY ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE
INHERITED HWO...WHICH INCLUDES GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY...SEEMS RIGHT ON
AND THIS SAME MESSAGE WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND KEPT THE MENTION OF
A VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 30/04Z. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SOME GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO GENERATE LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE
REGION AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED...SO
INTRODUCED SOME MVFR VSBYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KOAX 292326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCE THEY
WILL AFFECT KOFK OR KOMA. THEN GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WHEN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE
IN. CIGS BELOW FL010 AND VSBYS AT 1SM ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 08Z AND
15Z AT ALL TAF SITES. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORECAST AFTER 05Z WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 292320
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. FOR THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT...COMPACT PV ANOMALY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIT NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO A DAY OR TWO AGO. SHEAR
IS LIMITED AT BEST IN A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO ISOLATED
PULSE STORMS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AT BEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE COOLING...STORMS SHOULD BE OVER BY
03-04Z. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT A
RELATIVELY MOIST BL...FOG MAY BE A CONCERN FOR OUR EAST AND IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW AROUND THE DAWN HOURS.

TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF KINEMATIC
FORCING AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...STORMS AND/OR SHOWERS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.  AFTER PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE
50S SATURDAY MORNING...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE SHOULD MOSTLY BE ISOLATED AND
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR 30 PERCENT CHANCE IN
THE NORTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO BE
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND HAVE LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS TO 20 TO 40
PERCENT. AREAS EAST OF ONEILL THROUGH STOCKVILLE WILL HAVE A 40 TO
50 POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO WRN NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM EASTERN WY INTO WRN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED FROM EASTERN MT INTO EASTERN WYOMING
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND MAINTAINING
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE MID 80S TUESDAY TO THE  MID/UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN
KANSAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL SETTLE A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH POPS
APPROPRIATELY ADDED IN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGHS FRIDAY TO COOL TO THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND DISSIPATE BY
06Z TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF MOISTURE LEFT IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER
LEFT FROM THE RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FG/BR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 292320
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. FOR THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT...COMPACT PV ANOMALY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIT NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO A DAY OR TWO AGO. SHEAR
IS LIMITED AT BEST IN A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO ISOLATED
PULSE STORMS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AT BEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE COOLING...STORMS SHOULD BE OVER BY
03-04Z. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT A
RELATIVELY MOIST BL...FOG MAY BE A CONCERN FOR OUR EAST AND IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW AROUND THE DAWN HOURS.

TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF KINEMATIC
FORCING AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...STORMS AND/OR SHOWERS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.  AFTER PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE
50S SATURDAY MORNING...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE SHOULD MOSTLY BE ISOLATED AND
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR 30 PERCENT CHANCE IN
THE NORTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO BE
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND HAVE LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS TO 20 TO 40
PERCENT. AREAS EAST OF ONEILL THROUGH STOCKVILLE WILL HAVE A 40 TO
50 POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO WRN NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM EASTERN WY INTO WRN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED FROM EASTERN MT INTO EASTERN WYOMING
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND MAINTAINING
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE MID 80S TUESDAY TO THE  MID/UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN
KANSAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL SETTLE A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH POPS
APPROPRIATELY ADDED IN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGHS FRIDAY TO COOL TO THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND DISSIPATE BY
06Z TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF MOISTURE LEFT IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER
LEFT FROM THE RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FG/BR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KGID 292020
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
320 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS FINALLY ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
SATELLITE HAS CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SECONDARY WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE ALREADY A FEW CUMULUS MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN THIS GETS CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE
FURTHER EAST THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THESE
SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE EVENING.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL. WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...AS THE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND MAINLY ACROSS
NEBRASKA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AND THEN OFF TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE...ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ZONAL JET ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE OUR AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THIS JET ENERGY THEN
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TUESDAY ONWARD. BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO START
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE ON SUNDAY HOWEVER SHOULD ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THUS ALLOWING A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE TO CLEAR OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SHOULD
THEN PRESENT ITSELF MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RETURN FLOW INFILTRATES THE AREA WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

STARTING WITH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF A 40-45KT JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL DEVELOP FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THIS AXIS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
ACROSS THE AREA...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT THE EC. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD
WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION POST-SUNRISE ON SUNDAY SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS DOES THE SAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY INTO SUNDAY EVENING
HOWEVER...THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE SHOULD PROMOTE ENOUGH OMEGA FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
OMEGA...LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PASSING BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE A ZONE OF ENHANCED LIFT WHERE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY INITIATE. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 30-
50% POPS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH POPS
INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 70% SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE DO THE SAME. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY
ONWARD...BUT THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION COULD
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING
~20% POPS TO THESE FORECAST PERIODS. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED
FOR THE MOST PART.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ASCENDING PARCELS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL ONLY HAVE A 100-
300J/KG TO WORK WITH. GIVEN THIS...WILL HOLD OFF FROM ANY MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINT READINGS IN THE MID-
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES OF AROUND 2000J/KG...A
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. PERHAPS MORE
IMPRESSIVE...IS THE FACT MULTIPLE MODELS SUGGEST DEEP-LAYER BULK
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40KTS...AND PERHAPS APPROACHING 50KTS...WILL ALSO
BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME QUASI-LINEAR ALONG THE
ADVANCING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE...IF DEEP CONVECTION
CAN BE REALIZED AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THEN 0-1KM SRH VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 100M^2/S^2 AND PERHAPS APPROACHING 200M^2/S^2 SUGGEST
TORNADIC ACTIVITY ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN ALL THIS...THE
INHERITED HWO...WHICH INCLUDES GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY...SEEMS RIGHT ON
AND THIS SAME MESSAGE WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MOST OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO THE EAST OF
THE TERMINALS...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH AND COULD AFFECT THE KGRI TERMINAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME VICINITY THUNDER AROUND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z
AS VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VFR
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND CIGS EXPECTED
AFTER 08Z THRU ABOUT 14Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOPING 14Z-18Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 292008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OTHER THAN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT
TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH ON SUNDAY AS ACTIVE
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH PIVOT POINT NEARING MISSOURI RIVER
AS OF 19Z. TROUGH SHOULD BE KICKED EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
BY UPSTREAM WAVE FAST APPROACHING NW NEBR. BUT BESIDES CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING TO ERN NEBR WAVE...MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WHICH HAD NOT YET DEVELOPED AS OF
19Z...WORKING TOWARD NWRN ZONES FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING AND SOME
LAST MINUTE CHANGES PROBABLE. WITH MOISTURE PLENTY AND WAVE
TAPPING SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GULF SYSTEM...SLOW MOVEMENT COULD AID
IN A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODERATELY LIGHT DEEPER SHEAR VALUES PRESENT AND CLOUDS/EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING KEEPING ML CAPE VALUES MODEST...SEVERE
THREAT PROBABLY REMAINING ISOLD AT BEST. THAT SAID...PER SPC MD
1633 WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY PRESENT WITH UPPER TROUGH A
BRIEF TOR NOT IMPOSSIBLE ...SPCLY IF CLEAR SLOT INTO SERN NEBR AT
19Z WOULD ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE BEFORE BEING OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST. PLAN ON GENERALLY ENDING MOST
POPS BY 06Z. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT AND WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LEFT IN LATE NIGHT FOG.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SHOULD BRING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. LEFT
IN SMALL LATE NIGHT POPS NWRN ZONES SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH.

ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST INTO SUN AFTN AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL JET...PER NAM/GFS...12Z ECMWF GENERALLY KEPT AREA DRY
UNTIL 00Z MONDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER JET PUNCHES INTO REGION ON
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PRECEDING MAIN LATE AFTN/EVENING
DEVELOPMENT LEFT IN MORNING POPS NW 2/3RDS AND DID NOT BREAK UP
THE AFTN PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER CHANCES LATE IN
THE AFTN. DID BOOST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
THAT AREA DID SEEM THE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO IMPACT OF MORNING WARM
ADVECTION CLOUDS PSBL PRECIP. STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES APPEAR
HIGHER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGER AND MAX
TEMPS NEARING 90 SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE ACTIVITY AS WELL...VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST WILL OCCUR AS A CASE COULD BE MADE
FOR IT SETTING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN OR EVEN POSSIBLY JUST
OUTSIDE THE FA.

ALTHOUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR NOW...OUTSIDE A LINGERING
MORNING MENTION FAR SE...FAST MOVING FLOW WILL ALLOW APPROACH OF
NEXT WAVE BY AFTN IN NW NEBR. ALSO FRONT SHOVED SOUTH WITH
SUNDAY/S WAVE COULD STALL OUT MONDAY AFTN BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO
LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE ITEMS COULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL INCLUSION IN POPS IN LATTER FORECASTS FOR LABOR DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

BECAUSE OF AFOREMENTIONED SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE...SMALL POPS WERE
INCLUDED ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SE ON TUE.

OTHERWISE BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WITH JET SHIFTING FARTHER N PER
12Z ECMWF/GFS LENT ITSELF TO A DRY FORECAST WED ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH PRIOR FORECAST/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY FORECAST THU...WHICH WAS MAINTAINED...LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ALLOWED A FRONT TO WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES AT LEAST ON
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPPED SE THROUGH CANADA. THE NEW DAY
7 WILL INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IF TRENDS
WOULD PERSIST...POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INSERTED TO THU PERIOD AS
WELL...SPCLY N.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z
AS VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VFR
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND CIGS EXPECTED
AFTER 08Z THRU ABOUT 14Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOPING 14Z-18Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 291938
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. FOR THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT...COMPACT PV ANOMALY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIT NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO A DAY OR TWO AGO. SHEAR
IS LIMITED AT BEST IN A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO ISOLATED
PULSE STORMS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AT BEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE COOLING...STORMS SHOULD BE OVER BY
03-04Z. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT A
RELATIVELY MOIST BL...FOG MAY BE A CONCERN FOR OUR EAST AND IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW AROUND THE DAWN HOURS.

TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF KINEMATIC
FORCING AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...STORMS AND/OR SHOWERS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.  AFTER PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE
50S SATURDAY MORNING...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE SHOULD MOSTLY BE ISOLATED AND
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR 30 PERCENT CHANCE IN
THE NORTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO BE
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND HAVE LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS TO 20 TO 40
PERCENT. AREAS EAST OF ONEILL THROUGH STOCKVILLE WILL HAVE A 40 TO
50 POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO WRN NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM EASTERN WY INTO WRN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED FROM EASTERN MT INTO EASTERN WYOMING
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND MAINTAINING
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE MID 80S TUESDAY TO THE  MID/UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN
KANSAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL SETTLE A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH POPS
APPROPRIATELY ADDED IN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGHS FRIDAY TO COOL TO THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM...THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A TSRA MENTION AT KLBF THIS EVENING. AT KVTN...DEBATED
WHETHER TO GO WITH VCTS OR ACTUAL TSRA...BUT EVENTUALLY SIDED WITH
THE LATEST HRRR WHICH INDICATES STORMS AFTER 00Z. ERRATIC WIND
AND MODERATE RAINFALL WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT KONL WHEN IMPACTED BY A STORM. FOG MAY BE A CONCERN TOMORROW
MORNING...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING REDUCED VISIBILITY AT BOTH KVTN
AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 291802
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM ACROSS CANADA AND ALASKA WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS
PRESENT. CLOSED LOWS WERE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AS WELL AS OFF THE COAST OF NRN ALASKA. ACROSS THE
CONUS...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA...AS
WELL AS THE FAR SERN CONUS. CLOSER TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. UPSTREAM OF
THIS FEATURE...A NICE SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
MT. RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...HAS A NICE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KS INTO
FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH ALL ACTIVITY OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED OVERNIGHT
WEST OF A LINE FROM ATKINSON TO BROKEN BOW WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 54 AT OGALLALA TO 65 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS A MINIMAL
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS MORNING IN THE
EASTERN CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. FURTHER WEST...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER
SRN MT APPROACHES THE NEBR PANHANDLE. WITH HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DECIDED TO KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM
AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN WHAT WE HAD A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS IS EVIDENT IN PWATS OF 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH
VS. THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH PWATS OF A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. WE WILL BE
IN A VERY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO STORMS WILL BE OF
THE PULSE TYPE WITH SHORT DURATION EXPECTED. WITH COOLING THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY BY 03Z.
AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WITH
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A LITTLE RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD
AID IN LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND A FEW LOWER 90S. FORECAST IS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...GOING WITH THE LOWER GUIDANCE OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...CONSIDERING MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
INCHES THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE GROUND WILL STILL BE DAMP.

MEANWHILE EYES BEGIN TO FOCUS ON THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC
NW. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY ON SUNDAY...AS
A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 2K TO 4K J/KG AND 40 TO 55 KTS OF SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE CONCERN IS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AT PEAK
HEAT. GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO SEE DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSES
RATE POST FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS.

ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MODELS IN AGREEMENT
ENDING PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT...AND FORECAST HAS GONE DRY OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST FOLLOWS COOL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPS TRENDING COOLER.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW POPS CONTINUED. THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL SLOWLY BECOME
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS KEEP MOISTURE PLUM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPS WILL BE ON
A SLOW CLIMB. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...A TROUGH WILL
DIG IN ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS THIS SET UP
WILL LIKELY BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM...THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A TSRA MENTION AT KLBF THIS EVENING. AT KVTN...DEBATED
WHETHER TO GO WITH VCTS OR ACTUAL TSRA...BUT EVENTUALLY SIDED WITH
THE LATEST HRRR WHICH INDICATES STORMS AFTER 00Z. ERRATIC WIND
AND MODERATE RAINFALL WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT KONL WHEN IMPACTED BY A STORM. FOG MAY BE A CONCERN TOMORROW
MORNING...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING REDUCED VISIBILITY AT BOTH KVTN
AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS









000
FXUS63 KOAX 291758
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1258 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE IN REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN FEATURES FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 70 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 40 METERS WERE NOTED AT AMARILLO AND DODGE
CITY. DECENT MOISTURE WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE KOAX SOUNDING WAS STILL FAIRLY MOIST
WITH 1.70 PRECIPITABLE WATER.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO
WEST TEXAS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST HAD MADE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS SINCE LAST EVENING. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON US UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS GOING TODAY...SINCE WE SHOULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z NAM INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER
2000 J/KG BY AROUND NOON. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AFTER 1 PM. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT TSTMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME LOW POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO
COLUMBUS. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL WERE A BIT SLOWER
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH SHOW SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS MORE CORRECT...
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY HIGHER SUNDAY EVENING THAN
IF THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFY BETTER. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY...THAT SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEN THE FLOW IS
FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS MID AMERICA INTO WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY ABSENT...NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE A LOT DRIER THAN THIS WEEK HAS BEEN. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
FROM MAINLY 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS WILL INCREASE FROM 60S TO
AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z
AS VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF VFR
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND CIGS EXPECTED
AFTER 08Z THRU ABOUT 14Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOPING 14Z-18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KGID 291716
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL. A WELL-DEFINED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE HIGH/CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING IN OUR
EAST NEAR A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MAJORITY OF MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION TODAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE
THE FIRST PLACE WE GET REDEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TODAY. THE BIG PROBLEM LIES IN WHERE MORE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A SMALL
PERTURBATION BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS FINALLY CLEAR US OF ANY
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...WE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. WE WILL TOP OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...AND THE BEST CAPE WILL REMAIN IN OUR FAR
EAST...PROBABLY TOPPING 1000 J/KG IN OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG STORM...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL THAT I
WOULD ANTICIPATE.

I SIDED MORE WITH NAM FOR HIGHS TODAY AND CONSRAW FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NOW THAT THIS FIRST SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DEPARTING STAGE-RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
OBVIOUS HIGHLIGHT OF THIS 6-DAY LONG TERM PERIOD IS SQUARELY
FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIALLY FAIRLY-DECENT-BY-AUGUST-STANDARDS RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME.
GIVEN THIS EVENT IS STILL ABOUT 60 HOURS OUT...THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF WIGGLE ROOM IN THE MODEL WORLD FOR THE TIMING/LOCATION
TO CHANGE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY...BUT THE 00Z OR 06Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE KEY
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT APPEARS POTENTIALLY
POTENT BY AUGUST STANDARDS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF A DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THREAT...WITH MAYBE AT LEAST A LIMITED TORNADO RISK AS
WELL...ITS IMPORTANT NOT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS AT THIS POINT
ITS ONLY A BASELINE SLIGHT RISK PER SPC ON THE NEW DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
HYDRO-WISE FOR THIS EVENT...OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS AUGUST GIVES WAY
TO SEPTEMBER MAY NOT BE ALL THAT WELCOME...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD IN THEORY AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OF RAIN.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK...ITS OVERALL
LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET 6-DAY PERIOD...AS IN FACT THE ONLY
OFFICIAL 20 PERCENT-OR-HIGHER MENTIONS OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED TO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING DISTURBANCE THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE AS
MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE SUNDAY ONE. BEYOND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE REST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY AT LEAST FOR NOW...A SCENARIO THAT IS FAIRLY WELL
SUPPORTED BY ESPECIALLY THE LATEST ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF POTENTIAL OFF-AND-ON FUTURE
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN CWA.

TEMP-WISE...NO MAJOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AS
READINGS BOUNCE AROUND GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO MOST HIGHS/LOWS...WITH THE
SOMEWHAT MORE NOTABLE TWEAKS BEING A 2-3 DEGREE UPWARD NUDGE TO
SUNDAY HIGHS AND COMPARABLE DOWNWARD NUDGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS.
AFTER A BIT OF A COOLER RECENT STRETCH FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...THINGS TREND A BIT WARMER...WITH NEB HIGHS ON MOST DAYS
AIMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND KS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S LOW
90S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AND THE WARMEST DAYS A FAIRLY CLOSE CALL BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY.

GETTING INTO SOME METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN 24+ HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOCAL AREA EXPERIENCES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD NOW...AND THE NEXT MORE PROGRESSIVE/ENERGETIC TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. ALTHOUGH
SUPPOSE A ROGUE VERY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION SAT MORNING...THE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IS FOR A
DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM AUGUST DAY WITH BREEZES
ONLY AVERAGING 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEPT THE EVENING HOURS DRY BEFORE KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM ENTER
THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON COVERAGE AS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A LITTLE ACTIVITY AROUND...IT DOESN/T LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS CLEARLY THE MAIN SHOW
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AS THE MAIN TROUGH AND SEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK RACE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NEB/SD/IA AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL CRANK UP A BIT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT APPEARS TO BE INVADING THE WESTERN CWA BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM SETTLED...THE 06Z NAM DEPICTION OF
POTENTIALLY 3000+ J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT CONCERNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES A JUNE SETUP. TIME WILL TELL IF INITIAL
STORMS MAY STAY ISOLATED LONG ENOUGH TO YIELD AT LEAST A MARGINAL
TOR THREAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EASILY FORCE A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. POPS WERE HELD IN 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE CATEGORY PRIOR TO
00Z/7PM...BUT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED 60 PERCENT LIKELIES IN EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE RAMPING DOWN AS PRECIP EXITS
POST-MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 48 HOURS ARE LOOKING MOSTLY
DRY UNDER SEASONABLY STRONG QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE
MAIN EXCEPTION BEING MONDAY NIGHT AS ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF IS
BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING WAVE ACROSS NEB/SD/IA...BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LIKELY A LOWER SEVERE THREAT.
POPS ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...LEFT THESE LAST 36 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST DRY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE
AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MAIN JET AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS...AND WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE
SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MOST OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO THE EAST OF
THE TERMINALS...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH AND COULD AFFECT THE KGRI TERMINAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME VICINITY THUNDER AROUND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SINCE THIS AUGUST RAINFALL BLURB WAS UPDATED 4 DAYS AGO...MONTHLY
TOTALS HAVE GOTTEN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA IS ON TRACK TO FINISH
WITH 5+ INCHES FOR THE MONTH...AND AT LEAST SMALLER LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF 8+ INCHES. PUT ANOTHER WAY...A SOLID 200-300 PERCENT OF
AUGUST NORMALS FOR MANY PLACES. HERE ARE A FEW AUGUST-TO-DATE
RAINFALL DETAILS ABOUT THREE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITES WITHIN OUR
CWA...INCLUDING OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS:

- YORK 3N (OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER): WITH 11.46 INCHES
SO FAR THIS MONTH YORK HAS ALREADY ACHIEVED ITS OUTRIGHT-WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD OUT OF 121 AVAILABLE YEARS DATING TO 1893. THIS
ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS AUGUST MARK OF 10.03 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS AIRPORT: WITH 7.54 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...HASTINGS
HAS MOVED INTO 6TH-PLACE OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...BUT WOULD
NEED AT LEAST 2.33 MORE INCHES TO TOP THE CURRENT MAX AUGUST RAIN
OF 9.86 INCHES IN 1903.

- GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT: WITH 5.85 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...GRAND
ISLAND HAS CREPT UP TO 9TH-PLACE OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL 2.88 INCHES SHORT OF THE CURRENT TOP SPOT
OF 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 291716
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL. A WELL-DEFINED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE HIGH/CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING IN OUR
EAST NEAR A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MAJORITY OF MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION TODAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE
THE FIRST PLACE WE GET REDEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TODAY. THE BIG PROBLEM LIES IN WHERE MORE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A SMALL
PERTURBATION BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS FINALLY CLEAR US OF ANY
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...WE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. WE WILL TOP OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...AND THE BEST CAPE WILL REMAIN IN OUR FAR
EAST...PROBABLY TOPPING 1000 J/KG IN OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG STORM...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL THAT I
WOULD ANTICIPATE.

I SIDED MORE WITH NAM FOR HIGHS TODAY AND CONSRAW FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NOW THAT THIS FIRST SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DEPARTING STAGE-RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
OBVIOUS HIGHLIGHT OF THIS 6-DAY LONG TERM PERIOD IS SQUARELY
FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIALLY FAIRLY-DECENT-BY-AUGUST-STANDARDS RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME.
GIVEN THIS EVENT IS STILL ABOUT 60 HOURS OUT...THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF WIGGLE ROOM IN THE MODEL WORLD FOR THE TIMING/LOCATION
TO CHANGE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY...BUT THE 00Z OR 06Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE KEY
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT APPEARS POTENTIALLY
POTENT BY AUGUST STANDARDS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF A DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THREAT...WITH MAYBE AT LEAST A LIMITED TORNADO RISK AS
WELL...ITS IMPORTANT NOT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS AT THIS POINT
ITS ONLY A BASELINE SLIGHT RISK PER SPC ON THE NEW DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
HYDRO-WISE FOR THIS EVENT...OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS AUGUST GIVES WAY
TO SEPTEMBER MAY NOT BE ALL THAT WELCOME...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD IN THEORY AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OF RAIN.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK...ITS OVERALL
LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET 6-DAY PERIOD...AS IN FACT THE ONLY
OFFICIAL 20 PERCENT-OR-HIGHER MENTIONS OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED TO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING DISTURBANCE THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE AS
MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE SUNDAY ONE. BEYOND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE REST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY AT LEAST FOR NOW...A SCENARIO THAT IS FAIRLY WELL
SUPPORTED BY ESPECIALLY THE LATEST ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF POTENTIAL OFF-AND-ON FUTURE
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN CWA.

TEMP-WISE...NO MAJOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AS
READINGS BOUNCE AROUND GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO MOST HIGHS/LOWS...WITH THE
SOMEWHAT MORE NOTABLE TWEAKS BEING A 2-3 DEGREE UPWARD NUDGE TO
SUNDAY HIGHS AND COMPARABLE DOWNWARD NUDGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS.
AFTER A BIT OF A COOLER RECENT STRETCH FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...THINGS TREND A BIT WARMER...WITH NEB HIGHS ON MOST DAYS
AIMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND KS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S LOW
90S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AND THE WARMEST DAYS A FAIRLY CLOSE CALL BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY.

GETTING INTO SOME METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN 24+ HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOCAL AREA EXPERIENCES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD NOW...AND THE NEXT MORE PROGRESSIVE/ENERGETIC TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. ALTHOUGH
SUPPOSE A ROGUE VERY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION SAT MORNING...THE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IS FOR A
DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM AUGUST DAY WITH BREEZES
ONLY AVERAGING 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEPT THE EVENING HOURS DRY BEFORE KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM ENTER
THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON COVERAGE AS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A LITTLE ACTIVITY AROUND...IT DOESN/T LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS CLEARLY THE MAIN SHOW
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AS THE MAIN TROUGH AND SEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK RACE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NEB/SD/IA AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL CRANK UP A BIT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT APPEARS TO BE INVADING THE WESTERN CWA BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM SETTLED...THE 06Z NAM DEPICTION OF
POTENTIALLY 3000+ J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT CONCERNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES A JUNE SETUP. TIME WILL TELL IF INITIAL
STORMS MAY STAY ISOLATED LONG ENOUGH TO YIELD AT LEAST A MARGINAL
TOR THREAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EASILY FORCE A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. POPS WERE HELD IN 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE CATEGORY PRIOR TO
00Z/7PM...BUT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED 60 PERCENT LIKELIES IN EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE RAMPING DOWN AS PRECIP EXITS
POST-MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 48 HOURS ARE LOOKING MOSTLY
DRY UNDER SEASONABLY STRONG QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE
MAIN EXCEPTION BEING MONDAY NIGHT AS ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF IS
BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING WAVE ACROSS NEB/SD/IA...BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LIKELY A LOWER SEVERE THREAT.
POPS ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...LEFT THESE LAST 36 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST DRY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE
AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MAIN JET AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS...AND WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE
SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MOST OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO THE EAST OF
THE TERMINALS...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH AND COULD AFFECT THE KGRI TERMINAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME VICINITY THUNDER AROUND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SINCE THIS AUGUST RAINFALL BLURB WAS UPDATED 4 DAYS AGO...MONTHLY
TOTALS HAVE GOTTEN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA IS ON TRACK TO FINISH
WITH 5+ INCHES FOR THE MONTH...AND AT LEAST SMALLER LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF 8+ INCHES. PUT ANOTHER WAY...A SOLID 200-300 PERCENT OF
AUGUST NORMALS FOR MANY PLACES. HERE ARE A FEW AUGUST-TO-DATE
RAINFALL DETAILS ABOUT THREE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITES WITHIN OUR
CWA...INCLUDING OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS:

- YORK 3N (OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER): WITH 11.46 INCHES
SO FAR THIS MONTH YORK HAS ALREADY ACHIEVED ITS OUTRIGHT-WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD OUT OF 121 AVAILABLE YEARS DATING TO 1893. THIS
ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS AUGUST MARK OF 10.03 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS AIRPORT: WITH 7.54 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...HASTINGS
HAS MOVED INTO 6TH-PLACE OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...BUT WOULD
NEED AT LEAST 2.33 MORE INCHES TO TOP THE CURRENT MAX AUGUST RAIN
OF 9.86 INCHES IN 1903.

- GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT: WITH 5.85 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...GRAND
ISLAND HAS CREPT UP TO 9TH-PLACE OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL 2.88 INCHES SHORT OF THE CURRENT TOP SPOT
OF 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 291716
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL. A WELL-DEFINED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE HIGH/CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING IN OUR
EAST NEAR A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MAJORITY OF MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION TODAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE
THE FIRST PLACE WE GET REDEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TODAY. THE BIG PROBLEM LIES IN WHERE MORE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A SMALL
PERTURBATION BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS FINALLY CLEAR US OF ANY
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...WE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. WE WILL TOP OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...AND THE BEST CAPE WILL REMAIN IN OUR FAR
EAST...PROBABLY TOPPING 1000 J/KG IN OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG STORM...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL THAT I
WOULD ANTICIPATE.

I SIDED MORE WITH NAM FOR HIGHS TODAY AND CONSRAW FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NOW THAT THIS FIRST SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DEPARTING STAGE-RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
OBVIOUS HIGHLIGHT OF THIS 6-DAY LONG TERM PERIOD IS SQUARELY
FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIALLY FAIRLY-DECENT-BY-AUGUST-STANDARDS RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME.
GIVEN THIS EVENT IS STILL ABOUT 60 HOURS OUT...THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF WIGGLE ROOM IN THE MODEL WORLD FOR THE TIMING/LOCATION
TO CHANGE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY...BUT THE 00Z OR 06Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE KEY
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT APPEARS POTENTIALLY
POTENT BY AUGUST STANDARDS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF A DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THREAT...WITH MAYBE AT LEAST A LIMITED TORNADO RISK AS
WELL...ITS IMPORTANT NOT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS AT THIS POINT
ITS ONLY A BASELINE SLIGHT RISK PER SPC ON THE NEW DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
HYDRO-WISE FOR THIS EVENT...OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS AUGUST GIVES WAY
TO SEPTEMBER MAY NOT BE ALL THAT WELCOME...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD IN THEORY AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OF RAIN.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK...ITS OVERALL
LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET 6-DAY PERIOD...AS IN FACT THE ONLY
OFFICIAL 20 PERCENT-OR-HIGHER MENTIONS OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED TO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING DISTURBANCE THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE AS
MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE SUNDAY ONE. BEYOND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE REST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY AT LEAST FOR NOW...A SCENARIO THAT IS FAIRLY WELL
SUPPORTED BY ESPECIALLY THE LATEST ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF POTENTIAL OFF-AND-ON FUTURE
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN CWA.

TEMP-WISE...NO MAJOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AS
READINGS BOUNCE AROUND GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO MOST HIGHS/LOWS...WITH THE
SOMEWHAT MORE NOTABLE TWEAKS BEING A 2-3 DEGREE UPWARD NUDGE TO
SUNDAY HIGHS AND COMPARABLE DOWNWARD NUDGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS.
AFTER A BIT OF A COOLER RECENT STRETCH FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...THINGS TREND A BIT WARMER...WITH NEB HIGHS ON MOST DAYS
AIMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND KS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S LOW
90S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AND THE WARMEST DAYS A FAIRLY CLOSE CALL BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY.

GETTING INTO SOME METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN 24+ HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOCAL AREA EXPERIENCES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD NOW...AND THE NEXT MORE PROGRESSIVE/ENERGETIC TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. ALTHOUGH
SUPPOSE A ROGUE VERY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION SAT MORNING...THE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IS FOR A
DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM AUGUST DAY WITH BREEZES
ONLY AVERAGING 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEPT THE EVENING HOURS DRY BEFORE KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM ENTER
THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON COVERAGE AS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A LITTLE ACTIVITY AROUND...IT DOESN/T LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS CLEARLY THE MAIN SHOW
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AS THE MAIN TROUGH AND SEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK RACE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NEB/SD/IA AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL CRANK UP A BIT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT APPEARS TO BE INVADING THE WESTERN CWA BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM SETTLED...THE 06Z NAM DEPICTION OF
POTENTIALLY 3000+ J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT CONCERNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES A JUNE SETUP. TIME WILL TELL IF INITIAL
STORMS MAY STAY ISOLATED LONG ENOUGH TO YIELD AT LEAST A MARGINAL
TOR THREAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EASILY FORCE A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. POPS WERE HELD IN 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE CATEGORY PRIOR TO
00Z/7PM...BUT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED 60 PERCENT LIKELIES IN EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE RAMPING DOWN AS PRECIP EXITS
POST-MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 48 HOURS ARE LOOKING MOSTLY
DRY UNDER SEASONABLY STRONG QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE
MAIN EXCEPTION BEING MONDAY NIGHT AS ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF IS
BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING WAVE ACROSS NEB/SD/IA...BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LIKELY A LOWER SEVERE THREAT.
POPS ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...LEFT THESE LAST 36 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST DRY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE
AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MAIN JET AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS...AND WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE
SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MOST OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO THE EAST OF
THE TERMINALS...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH AND COULD AFFECT THE KGRI TERMINAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME VICINITY THUNDER AROUND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SINCE THIS AUGUST RAINFALL BLURB WAS UPDATED 4 DAYS AGO...MONTHLY
TOTALS HAVE GOTTEN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA IS ON TRACK TO FINISH
WITH 5+ INCHES FOR THE MONTH...AND AT LEAST SMALLER LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF 8+ INCHES. PUT ANOTHER WAY...A SOLID 200-300 PERCENT OF
AUGUST NORMALS FOR MANY PLACES. HERE ARE A FEW AUGUST-TO-DATE
RAINFALL DETAILS ABOUT THREE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITES WITHIN OUR
CWA...INCLUDING OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS:

- YORK 3N (OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER): WITH 11.46 INCHES
SO FAR THIS MONTH YORK HAS ALREADY ACHIEVED ITS OUTRIGHT-WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD OUT OF 121 AVAILABLE YEARS DATING TO 1893. THIS
ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS AUGUST MARK OF 10.03 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS AIRPORT: WITH 7.54 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...HASTINGS
HAS MOVED INTO 6TH-PLACE OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...BUT WOULD
NEED AT LEAST 2.33 MORE INCHES TO TOP THE CURRENT MAX AUGUST RAIN
OF 9.86 INCHES IN 1903.

- GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT: WITH 5.85 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...GRAND
ISLAND HAS CREPT UP TO 9TH-PLACE OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL 2.88 INCHES SHORT OF THE CURRENT TOP SPOT
OF 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 291716
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL. A WELL-DEFINED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE HIGH/CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING IN OUR
EAST NEAR A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MAJORITY OF MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION TODAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE
THE FIRST PLACE WE GET REDEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TODAY. THE BIG PROBLEM LIES IN WHERE MORE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A SMALL
PERTURBATION BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS FINALLY CLEAR US OF ANY
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...WE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. WE WILL TOP OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...AND THE BEST CAPE WILL REMAIN IN OUR FAR
EAST...PROBABLY TOPPING 1000 J/KG IN OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG STORM...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL THAT I
WOULD ANTICIPATE.

I SIDED MORE WITH NAM FOR HIGHS TODAY AND CONSRAW FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NOW THAT THIS FIRST SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DEPARTING STAGE-RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
OBVIOUS HIGHLIGHT OF THIS 6-DAY LONG TERM PERIOD IS SQUARELY
FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIALLY FAIRLY-DECENT-BY-AUGUST-STANDARDS RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME.
GIVEN THIS EVENT IS STILL ABOUT 60 HOURS OUT...THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF WIGGLE ROOM IN THE MODEL WORLD FOR THE TIMING/LOCATION
TO CHANGE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY...BUT THE 00Z OR 06Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE KEY
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT APPEARS POTENTIALLY
POTENT BY AUGUST STANDARDS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF A DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THREAT...WITH MAYBE AT LEAST A LIMITED TORNADO RISK AS
WELL...ITS IMPORTANT NOT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS AT THIS POINT
ITS ONLY A BASELINE SLIGHT RISK PER SPC ON THE NEW DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
HYDRO-WISE FOR THIS EVENT...OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS AUGUST GIVES WAY
TO SEPTEMBER MAY NOT BE ALL THAT WELCOME...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD IN THEORY AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OF RAIN.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK...ITS OVERALL
LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET 6-DAY PERIOD...AS IN FACT THE ONLY
OFFICIAL 20 PERCENT-OR-HIGHER MENTIONS OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED TO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING DISTURBANCE THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE AS
MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE SUNDAY ONE. BEYOND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE REST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY AT LEAST FOR NOW...A SCENARIO THAT IS FAIRLY WELL
SUPPORTED BY ESPECIALLY THE LATEST ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF POTENTIAL OFF-AND-ON FUTURE
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN CWA.

TEMP-WISE...NO MAJOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AS
READINGS BOUNCE AROUND GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO MOST HIGHS/LOWS...WITH THE
SOMEWHAT MORE NOTABLE TWEAKS BEING A 2-3 DEGREE UPWARD NUDGE TO
SUNDAY HIGHS AND COMPARABLE DOWNWARD NUDGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS.
AFTER A BIT OF A COOLER RECENT STRETCH FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...THINGS TREND A BIT WARMER...WITH NEB HIGHS ON MOST DAYS
AIMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND KS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S LOW
90S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AND THE WARMEST DAYS A FAIRLY CLOSE CALL BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY.

GETTING INTO SOME METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN 24+ HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOCAL AREA EXPERIENCES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD NOW...AND THE NEXT MORE PROGRESSIVE/ENERGETIC TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. ALTHOUGH
SUPPOSE A ROGUE VERY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION SAT MORNING...THE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IS FOR A
DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM AUGUST DAY WITH BREEZES
ONLY AVERAGING 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEPT THE EVENING HOURS DRY BEFORE KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM ENTER
THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON COVERAGE AS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A LITTLE ACTIVITY AROUND...IT DOESN/T LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS CLEARLY THE MAIN SHOW
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AS THE MAIN TROUGH AND SEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK RACE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NEB/SD/IA AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL CRANK UP A BIT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT APPEARS TO BE INVADING THE WESTERN CWA BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM SETTLED...THE 06Z NAM DEPICTION OF
POTENTIALLY 3000+ J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT CONCERNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES A JUNE SETUP. TIME WILL TELL IF INITIAL
STORMS MAY STAY ISOLATED LONG ENOUGH TO YIELD AT LEAST A MARGINAL
TOR THREAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EASILY FORCE A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. POPS WERE HELD IN 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE CATEGORY PRIOR TO
00Z/7PM...BUT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED 60 PERCENT LIKELIES IN EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE RAMPING DOWN AS PRECIP EXITS
POST-MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 48 HOURS ARE LOOKING MOSTLY
DRY UNDER SEASONABLY STRONG QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE
MAIN EXCEPTION BEING MONDAY NIGHT AS ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF IS
BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING WAVE ACROSS NEB/SD/IA...BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LIKELY A LOWER SEVERE THREAT.
POPS ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...LEFT THESE LAST 36 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST DRY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE
AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MAIN JET AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS...AND WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE
SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MOST OF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO THE EAST OF
THE TERMINALS...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH AND COULD AFFECT THE KGRI TERMINAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME VICINITY THUNDER AROUND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SINCE THIS AUGUST RAINFALL BLURB WAS UPDATED 4 DAYS AGO...MONTHLY
TOTALS HAVE GOTTEN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA IS ON TRACK TO FINISH
WITH 5+ INCHES FOR THE MONTH...AND AT LEAST SMALLER LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF 8+ INCHES. PUT ANOTHER WAY...A SOLID 200-300 PERCENT OF
AUGUST NORMALS FOR MANY PLACES. HERE ARE A FEW AUGUST-TO-DATE
RAINFALL DETAILS ABOUT THREE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITES WITHIN OUR
CWA...INCLUDING OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS:

- YORK 3N (OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER): WITH 11.46 INCHES
SO FAR THIS MONTH YORK HAS ALREADY ACHIEVED ITS OUTRIGHT-WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD OUT OF 121 AVAILABLE YEARS DATING TO 1893. THIS
ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS AUGUST MARK OF 10.03 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS AIRPORT: WITH 7.54 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...HASTINGS
HAS MOVED INTO 6TH-PLACE OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...BUT WOULD
NEED AT LEAST 2.33 MORE INCHES TO TOP THE CURRENT MAX AUGUST RAIN
OF 9.86 INCHES IN 1903.

- GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT: WITH 5.85 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...GRAND
ISLAND HAS CREPT UP TO 9TH-PLACE OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL 2.88 INCHES SHORT OF THE CURRENT TOP SPOT
OF 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...JCB
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KOAX 291158
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
658 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE IN REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN FEATURES FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 70 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 40 METERS WERE NOTED AT AMARILLO AND DODGE
CITY. DECENT MOISTURE WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE KOAX SOUNDING WAS STILL FAIRLY MOIST
WITH 1.70 PRECIPITABLE WATER.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO
WEST TEXAS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST HAD MADE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS SINCE LAST EVENING. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON US UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS GOING TODAY...SINCE WE SHOULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z NAM INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER
2000 J/KG BY AROUND NOON. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AFTER 1 PM. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT TSTMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME LOW POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO
COLUMBUS. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL WERE A BIT SLOWER
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH SHOW SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS MORE CORRECT...
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY HIGHER SUNDAY EVENING THAN
IF THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFY BETTER. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY...THAT SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEN THE FLOW IS
FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS MID AMERICA INTO WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY ABSENT...NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE A LOT DRIER THAN THIS WEEK HAS BEEN. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
FROM MAINLY 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS WILL INCREASE FROM 60S TO
AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LATEST OBS SHOWING MID LVL CIGS PREVAILING OVER ERN NEB THIS
MORNING WITH -SHRA MOVING NWD OUT OF ERN KS. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE ADDED TEMPO
GROUPS TO KOMA/KLNK. MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY
EXTENDING FROM NW IA TO CNTRL KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN. AREAL COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION AT
THIS POINT...THUS OPTED FOR PROB30 GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291158
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
658 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE IN REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN FEATURES FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 70 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 40 METERS WERE NOTED AT AMARILLO AND DODGE
CITY. DECENT MOISTURE WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE KOAX SOUNDING WAS STILL FAIRLY MOIST
WITH 1.70 PRECIPITABLE WATER.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO
WEST TEXAS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST HAD MADE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS SINCE LAST EVENING. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON US UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS GOING TODAY...SINCE WE SHOULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z NAM INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER
2000 J/KG BY AROUND NOON. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AFTER 1 PM. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT TSTMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME LOW POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO
COLUMBUS. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL WERE A BIT SLOWER
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH SHOW SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS MORE CORRECT...
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY HIGHER SUNDAY EVENING THAN
IF THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFY BETTER. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY...THAT SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEN THE FLOW IS
FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS MID AMERICA INTO WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY ABSENT...NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE A LOT DRIER THAN THIS WEEK HAS BEEN. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
FROM MAINLY 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS WILL INCREASE FROM 60S TO
AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LATEST OBS SHOWING MID LVL CIGS PREVAILING OVER ERN NEB THIS
MORNING WITH -SHRA MOVING NWD OUT OF ERN KS. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE ADDED TEMPO
GROUPS TO KOMA/KLNK. MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY
EXTENDING FROM NW IA TO CNTRL KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN. AREAL COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION AT
THIS POINT...THUS OPTED FOR PROB30 GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291158
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
658 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE IN REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN FEATURES FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 70 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 40 METERS WERE NOTED AT AMARILLO AND DODGE
CITY. DECENT MOISTURE WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE KOAX SOUNDING WAS STILL FAIRLY MOIST
WITH 1.70 PRECIPITABLE WATER.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO
WEST TEXAS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST HAD MADE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS SINCE LAST EVENING. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON US UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS GOING TODAY...SINCE WE SHOULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z NAM INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER
2000 J/KG BY AROUND NOON. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AFTER 1 PM. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT TSTMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME LOW POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO
COLUMBUS. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL WERE A BIT SLOWER
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH SHOW SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS MORE CORRECT...
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY HIGHER SUNDAY EVENING THAN
IF THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFY BETTER. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY...THAT SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEN THE FLOW IS
FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS MID AMERICA INTO WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY ABSENT...NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE A LOT DRIER THAN THIS WEEK HAS BEEN. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
FROM MAINLY 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS WILL INCREASE FROM 60S TO
AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LATEST OBS SHOWING MID LVL CIGS PREVAILING OVER ERN NEB THIS
MORNING WITH -SHRA MOVING NWD OUT OF ERN KS. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE ADDED TEMPO
GROUPS TO KOMA/KLNK. MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY
EXTENDING FROM NW IA TO CNTRL KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN. AREAL COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION AT
THIS POINT...THUS OPTED FOR PROB30 GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291158
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
658 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE IN REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN FEATURES FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 70 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 40 METERS WERE NOTED AT AMARILLO AND DODGE
CITY. DECENT MOISTURE WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE KOAX SOUNDING WAS STILL FAIRLY MOIST
WITH 1.70 PRECIPITABLE WATER.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO
WEST TEXAS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST HAD MADE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS SINCE LAST EVENING. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON US UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS GOING TODAY...SINCE WE SHOULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z NAM INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER
2000 J/KG BY AROUND NOON. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AFTER 1 PM. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT TSTMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME LOW POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO
COLUMBUS. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL WERE A BIT SLOWER
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH SHOW SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS MORE CORRECT...
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY HIGHER SUNDAY EVENING THAN
IF THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFY BETTER. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY...THAT SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEN THE FLOW IS
FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS MID AMERICA INTO WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY ABSENT...NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE A LOT DRIER THAN THIS WEEK HAS BEEN. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
FROM MAINLY 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS WILL INCREASE FROM 60S TO
AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LATEST OBS SHOWING MID LVL CIGS PREVAILING OVER ERN NEB THIS
MORNING WITH -SHRA MOVING NWD OUT OF ERN KS. EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE ADDED TEMPO
GROUPS TO KOMA/KLNK. MEANWHILE...A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY
EXTENDING FROM NW IA TO CNTRL KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN. AREAL COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION AT
THIS POINT...THUS OPTED FOR PROB30 GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KLBF 291143
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
643 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM ACROSS CANADA AND ALASKA WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS
PRESENT. CLOSED LOWS WERE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AS WELL AS OFF THE COAST OF NRN ALASKA. ACROSS THE
CONUS...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA...AS
WELL AS THE FAR SERN CONUS. CLOSER TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. UPSTREAM OF
THIS FEATURE...A NICE SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
MT. RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...HAS A NICE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KS INTO
FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH ALL ACTIVITY OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED OVERNIGHT
WEST OF A LINE FROM ATKINSON TO BROKEN BOW WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 54 AT OGALLALA TO 65 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS A MINIMAL
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS MORNING IN THE
EASTERN CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. FURTHER WEST...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER
SRN MT APPROACHES THE NEBR PANHANDLE. WITH HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DECIDED TO KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM
AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN WHAT WE HAD A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS IS EVIDENT IN PWATS OF 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH
VS. THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH PWATS OF A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. WE WILL BE
IN A VERY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO STORMS WILL BE OF
THE PULSE TYPE WITH SHORT DURATION EXPECTED. WITH COOLING THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY BY 03Z.
AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WITH
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A LITTLE RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD
AID IN LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND A FEW LOWER 90S. FORECAST IS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...GOING WITH THE LOWER GUIDANCE OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...CONSIDERING MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
INCHES THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE GROUND WILL STILL BE DAMP.

MEANWHILE EYES BEGIN TO FOCUS ON THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC
NW. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY ON SUNDAY...AS
A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 2K TO 4K J/KG AND 40 TO 55 KTS OF SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE CONCERN IS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AT PEAK
HEAT. GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO SEE DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSES
RATE POST FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS.

ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MODELS IN AGREEMENT
ENDING PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT...AND FORECAST HAS GONE DRY OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST FOLLOWS COOL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPS TRENDING COOLER.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW POPS CONTINUED. THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL SLOWLY BECOME
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS KEEP MOISTURE PLUM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPS WILL BE ON
A SLOW CLIMB. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...A TROUGH WILL
DIG IN ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS THIS SET UP
WILL LIKELY BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CIGS OF AROUND
10000 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH CLEARING THERE AFTER. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SAND HILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPARSE AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB






000
FXUS63 KGID 291058
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
558 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL. A WELL-DEFINED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE HIGH/CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING IN OUR
EAST NEAR A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MAJORITY OF MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION TODAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE
THE FIRST PLACE WE GET REDEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TODAY. THE BIG PROBLEM LIES IN WHERE MORE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A SMALL
PERTURBATION BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS FINALLY CLEAR US OF ANY
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...WE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. WE WILL TOP OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...AND THE BEST CAPE WILL REMAIN IN OUR FAR
EAST...PROBABLY TOPPING 1000 J/KG IN OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG STORM...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL THAT I
WOULD ANTICIPATE.

I SIDED MORE WITH NAM FOR HIGHS TODAY AND CONSRAW FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NOW THAT THIS FIRST SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DEPARTING STAGE-RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
OBVIOUS HIGHLIGHT OF THIS 6-DAY LONG TERM PERIOD IS SQUARELY
FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIALLY FAIRLY-DECENT-BY-AUGUST-STANDARDS RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME.
GIVEN THIS EVENT IS STILL ABOUT 60 HOURS OUT...THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF WIGGLE ROOM IN THE MODEL WORLD FOR THE TIMING/LOCATION
TO CHANGE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY...BUT THE 00Z OR 06Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE KEY
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT APPEARS POTENTIALLY
POTENT BY AUGUST STANDARDS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF A DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THREAT...WITH MAYBE AT LEAST A LIMITED TORNADO RISK AS
WELL...ITS IMPORTANT NOT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS AT THIS POINT
ITS ONLY A BASELINE SLIGHT RISK PER SPC ON THE NEW DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
HYDRO-WISE FOR THIS EVENT...OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS AUGUST GIVES WAY
TO SEPTEMBER MAY NOT BE ALL THAT WELCOME...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD IN THEORY AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OF RAIN.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK...ITS OVERALL
LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET 6-DAY PERIOD...AS IN FACT THE ONLY
OFFICIAL 20 PERCENT-OR-HIGHER MENTIONS OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED TO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING DISTURBANCE THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE AS
MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE SUNDAY ONE. BEYOND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE REST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY AT LEAST FOR NOW...A SCENARIO THAT IS FAIRLY WELL
SUPPORTED BY ESPECIALLY THE LATEST ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF POTENTIAL OFF-AND-ON FUTURE
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN CWA.

TEMP-WISE...NO MAJOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AS
READINGS BOUNCE AROUND GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO MOST HIGHS/LOWS...WITH THE
SOMEWHAT MORE NOTABLE TWEAKS BEING A 2-3 DEGREE UPWARD NUDGE TO
SUNDAY HIGHS AND COMPARABLE DOWNWARD NUDGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS.
AFTER A BIT OF A COOLER RECENT STRETCH FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...THINGS TREND A BIT WARMER...WITH NEB HIGHS ON MOST DAYS
AIMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND KS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S LOW
90S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AND THE WARMEST DAYS A FAIRLY CLOSE CALL BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY.

GETTING INTO SOME METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN 24+ HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOCAL AREA EXPERIENCES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD NOW...AND THE NEXT MORE PROGRESSIVE/ENERGETIC TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. ALTHOUGH
SUPPOSE A ROGUE VERY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION SAT MORNING...THE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IS FOR A
DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM AUGUST DAY WITH BREEZES
ONLY AVERAGING 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEPT THE EVENING HOURS DRY BEFORE KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM ENTER
THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON COVERAGE AS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A LITTLE ACTIVITY AROUND...IT DOESN/T LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS CLEARLY THE MAIN SHOW
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AS THE MAIN TROUGH AND SEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK RACE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NEB/SD/IA AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL CRANK UP A BIT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT APPEARS TO BE INVADING THE WESTERN CWA BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM SETTLED...THE 06Z NAM DEPICTION OF
POTENTIALLY 3000+ J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT CONCERNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES A JUNE SETUP. TIME WILL TELL IF INITIAL
STORMS MAY STAY ISOLATED LONG ENOUGH TO YIELD AT LEAST A MARGINAL
TOR THREAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EASILY FORCE A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. POPS WERE HELD IN 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE CATEGORY PRIOR TO
00Z/7PM...BUT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED 60 PERCENT LIKELIES IN EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE RAMPING DOWN AS PRECIP EXITS
POST-MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 48 HOURS ARE LOOKING MOSTLY
DRY UNDER SEASONABLY STRONG QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE
MAIN EXCEPTION BEING MONDAY NIGHT AS ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF IS
BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING WAVE ACROSS NEB/SD/IA...BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LIKELY A LOWER SEVERE THREAT.
POPS ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...LEFT THESE LAST 36 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST DRY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE
AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MAIN JET AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS...AND WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE
SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MID-HIGH LEVEL.  WE COULD GET A
THUNDERSHOWER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
TROUGH AXIS...BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AND TIMING IS DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE. ANY FOG CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN EAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SINCE THIS AUGUST RAINFALL BLURB WAS UPDATED 4 DAYS AGO...MONTHLY
TOTALS HAVE GOTTEN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA IS ON TRACK TO FINISH
WITH 5+ INCHES FOR THE MONTH...AND AT LEAST SMALLER LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF 8+ INCHES. PUT ANOTHER WAY...A SOLID 200-300 PERCENT OF
AUGUST NORMALS FOR MANY PLACES. HERE ARE A FEW AUGUST-TO-DATE
RAINFALL DETAILS ABOUT THREE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITES WITHIN OUR
CWA...INCLUDING OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS:

- YORK 3N (OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER): WITH 11.46 INCHES
SO FAR THIS MONTH YORK HAS ALREADY ACHIEVED ITS OUTRIGHT-WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD OUT OF 121 AVAILABLE YEARS DATING TO 1893. THIS
ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS AUGUST MARK OF 10.03 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS AIRPORT: WITH 7.54 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...HASTINGS
HAS MOVED INTO 6TH-PLACE OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...BUT WOULD
NEED AT LEAST 2.33 MORE INCHES TO TOP THE CURRENT MAX AUGUST RAIN
OF 9.86 INCHES IN 1903.

- GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT: WITH 5.85 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...GRAND
ISLAND HAS CREPT UP TO 9TH-PLACE OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL 2.88 INCHES SHORT OF THE CURRENT TOP SPOT
OF 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 291058
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
558 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL. A WELL-DEFINED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE HIGH/CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING IN OUR
EAST NEAR A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MAJORITY OF MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION TODAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE
THE FIRST PLACE WE GET REDEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TODAY. THE BIG PROBLEM LIES IN WHERE MORE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A SMALL
PERTURBATION BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS FINALLY CLEAR US OF ANY
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...WE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. WE WILL TOP OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...AND THE BEST CAPE WILL REMAIN IN OUR FAR
EAST...PROBABLY TOPPING 1000 J/KG IN OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG STORM...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL THAT I
WOULD ANTICIPATE.

I SIDED MORE WITH NAM FOR HIGHS TODAY AND CONSRAW FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NOW THAT THIS FIRST SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DEPARTING STAGE-RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
OBVIOUS HIGHLIGHT OF THIS 6-DAY LONG TERM PERIOD IS SQUARELY
FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIALLY FAIRLY-DECENT-BY-AUGUST-STANDARDS RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME.
GIVEN THIS EVENT IS STILL ABOUT 60 HOURS OUT...THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF WIGGLE ROOM IN THE MODEL WORLD FOR THE TIMING/LOCATION
TO CHANGE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY...BUT THE 00Z OR 06Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE KEY
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT APPEARS POTENTIALLY
POTENT BY AUGUST STANDARDS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF A DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THREAT...WITH MAYBE AT LEAST A LIMITED TORNADO RISK AS
WELL...ITS IMPORTANT NOT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS AT THIS POINT
ITS ONLY A BASELINE SLIGHT RISK PER SPC ON THE NEW DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
HYDRO-WISE FOR THIS EVENT...OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS AUGUST GIVES WAY
TO SEPTEMBER MAY NOT BE ALL THAT WELCOME...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD IN THEORY AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OF RAIN.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK...ITS OVERALL
LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET 6-DAY PERIOD...AS IN FACT THE ONLY
OFFICIAL 20 PERCENT-OR-HIGHER MENTIONS OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED TO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING DISTURBANCE THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE AS
MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE SUNDAY ONE. BEYOND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE REST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY AT LEAST FOR NOW...A SCENARIO THAT IS FAIRLY WELL
SUPPORTED BY ESPECIALLY THE LATEST ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF POTENTIAL OFF-AND-ON FUTURE
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN CWA.

TEMP-WISE...NO MAJOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AS
READINGS BOUNCE AROUND GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO MOST HIGHS/LOWS...WITH THE
SOMEWHAT MORE NOTABLE TWEAKS BEING A 2-3 DEGREE UPWARD NUDGE TO
SUNDAY HIGHS AND COMPARABLE DOWNWARD NUDGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS.
AFTER A BIT OF A COOLER RECENT STRETCH FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...THINGS TREND A BIT WARMER...WITH NEB HIGHS ON MOST DAYS
AIMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND KS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S LOW
90S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AND THE WARMEST DAYS A FAIRLY CLOSE CALL BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY.

GETTING INTO SOME METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN 24+ HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOCAL AREA EXPERIENCES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD NOW...AND THE NEXT MORE PROGRESSIVE/ENERGETIC TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. ALTHOUGH
SUPPOSE A ROGUE VERY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION SAT MORNING...THE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IS FOR A
DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM AUGUST DAY WITH BREEZES
ONLY AVERAGING 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEPT THE EVENING HOURS DRY BEFORE KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM ENTER
THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON COVERAGE AS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A LITTLE ACTIVITY AROUND...IT DOESN/T LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS CLEARLY THE MAIN SHOW
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AS THE MAIN TROUGH AND SEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK RACE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NEB/SD/IA AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL CRANK UP A BIT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT APPEARS TO BE INVADING THE WESTERN CWA BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM SETTLED...THE 06Z NAM DEPICTION OF
POTENTIALLY 3000+ J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT CONCERNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES A JUNE SETUP. TIME WILL TELL IF INITIAL
STORMS MAY STAY ISOLATED LONG ENOUGH TO YIELD AT LEAST A MARGINAL
TOR THREAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EASILY FORCE A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. POPS WERE HELD IN 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE CATEGORY PRIOR TO
00Z/7PM...BUT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED 60 PERCENT LIKELIES IN EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE RAMPING DOWN AS PRECIP EXITS
POST-MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 48 HOURS ARE LOOKING MOSTLY
DRY UNDER SEASONABLY STRONG QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE
MAIN EXCEPTION BEING MONDAY NIGHT AS ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF IS
BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING WAVE ACROSS NEB/SD/IA...BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LIKELY A LOWER SEVERE THREAT.
POPS ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...LEFT THESE LAST 36 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST DRY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE
AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MAIN JET AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS...AND WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE
SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MID-HIGH LEVEL.  WE COULD GET A
THUNDERSHOWER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
TROUGH AXIS...BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AND TIMING IS DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE. ANY FOG CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN EAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SINCE THIS AUGUST RAINFALL BLURB WAS UPDATED 4 DAYS AGO...MONTHLY
TOTALS HAVE GOTTEN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA IS ON TRACK TO FINISH
WITH 5+ INCHES FOR THE MONTH...AND AT LEAST SMALLER LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF 8+ INCHES. PUT ANOTHER WAY...A SOLID 200-300 PERCENT OF
AUGUST NORMALS FOR MANY PLACES. HERE ARE A FEW AUGUST-TO-DATE
RAINFALL DETAILS ABOUT THREE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITES WITHIN OUR
CWA...INCLUDING OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS:

- YORK 3N (OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER): WITH 11.46 INCHES
SO FAR THIS MONTH YORK HAS ALREADY ACHIEVED ITS OUTRIGHT-WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD OUT OF 121 AVAILABLE YEARS DATING TO 1893. THIS
ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS AUGUST MARK OF 10.03 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS AIRPORT: WITH 7.54 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...HASTINGS
HAS MOVED INTO 6TH-PLACE OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...BUT WOULD
NEED AT LEAST 2.33 MORE INCHES TO TOP THE CURRENT MAX AUGUST RAIN
OF 9.86 INCHES IN 1903.

- GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT: WITH 5.85 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...GRAND
ISLAND HAS CREPT UP TO 9TH-PLACE OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL 2.88 INCHES SHORT OF THE CURRENT TOP SPOT
OF 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 291058
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
558 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL. A WELL-DEFINED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE HIGH/CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING IN OUR
EAST NEAR A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MAJORITY OF MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION TODAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE
THE FIRST PLACE WE GET REDEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TODAY. THE BIG PROBLEM LIES IN WHERE MORE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A SMALL
PERTURBATION BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS FINALLY CLEAR US OF ANY
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...WE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. WE WILL TOP OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...AND THE BEST CAPE WILL REMAIN IN OUR FAR
EAST...PROBABLY TOPPING 1000 J/KG IN OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG STORM...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL THAT I
WOULD ANTICIPATE.

I SIDED MORE WITH NAM FOR HIGHS TODAY AND CONSRAW FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NOW THAT THIS FIRST SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DEPARTING STAGE-RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
OBVIOUS HIGHLIGHT OF THIS 6-DAY LONG TERM PERIOD IS SQUARELY
FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIALLY FAIRLY-DECENT-BY-AUGUST-STANDARDS RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME.
GIVEN THIS EVENT IS STILL ABOUT 60 HOURS OUT...THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF WIGGLE ROOM IN THE MODEL WORLD FOR THE TIMING/LOCATION
TO CHANGE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY...BUT THE 00Z OR 06Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE KEY
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT APPEARS POTENTIALLY
POTENT BY AUGUST STANDARDS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF A DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THREAT...WITH MAYBE AT LEAST A LIMITED TORNADO RISK AS
WELL...ITS IMPORTANT NOT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS AT THIS POINT
ITS ONLY A BASELINE SLIGHT RISK PER SPC ON THE NEW DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
HYDRO-WISE FOR THIS EVENT...OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS AUGUST GIVES WAY
TO SEPTEMBER MAY NOT BE ALL THAT WELCOME...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD IN THEORY AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OF RAIN.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK...ITS OVERALL
LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET 6-DAY PERIOD...AS IN FACT THE ONLY
OFFICIAL 20 PERCENT-OR-HIGHER MENTIONS OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED TO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING DISTURBANCE THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE AS
MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE SUNDAY ONE. BEYOND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE REST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY AT LEAST FOR NOW...A SCENARIO THAT IS FAIRLY WELL
SUPPORTED BY ESPECIALLY THE LATEST ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF POTENTIAL OFF-AND-ON FUTURE
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN CWA.

TEMP-WISE...NO MAJOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AS
READINGS BOUNCE AROUND GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO MOST HIGHS/LOWS...WITH THE
SOMEWHAT MORE NOTABLE TWEAKS BEING A 2-3 DEGREE UPWARD NUDGE TO
SUNDAY HIGHS AND COMPARABLE DOWNWARD NUDGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS.
AFTER A BIT OF A COOLER RECENT STRETCH FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...THINGS TREND A BIT WARMER...WITH NEB HIGHS ON MOST DAYS
AIMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND KS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S LOW
90S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AND THE WARMEST DAYS A FAIRLY CLOSE CALL BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY.

GETTING INTO SOME METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN 24+ HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOCAL AREA EXPERIENCES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD NOW...AND THE NEXT MORE PROGRESSIVE/ENERGETIC TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. ALTHOUGH
SUPPOSE A ROGUE VERY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION SAT MORNING...THE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IS FOR A
DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM AUGUST DAY WITH BREEZES
ONLY AVERAGING 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEPT THE EVENING HOURS DRY BEFORE KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM ENTER
THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON COVERAGE AS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A LITTLE ACTIVITY AROUND...IT DOESN/T LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS CLEARLY THE MAIN SHOW
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AS THE MAIN TROUGH AND SEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK RACE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NEB/SD/IA AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL CRANK UP A BIT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT APPEARS TO BE INVADING THE WESTERN CWA BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM SETTLED...THE 06Z NAM DEPICTION OF
POTENTIALLY 3000+ J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT CONCERNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES A JUNE SETUP. TIME WILL TELL IF INITIAL
STORMS MAY STAY ISOLATED LONG ENOUGH TO YIELD AT LEAST A MARGINAL
TOR THREAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EASILY FORCE A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. POPS WERE HELD IN 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE CATEGORY PRIOR TO
00Z/7PM...BUT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED 60 PERCENT LIKELIES IN EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE RAMPING DOWN AS PRECIP EXITS
POST-MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 48 HOURS ARE LOOKING MOSTLY
DRY UNDER SEASONABLY STRONG QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE
MAIN EXCEPTION BEING MONDAY NIGHT AS ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF IS
BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING WAVE ACROSS NEB/SD/IA...BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LIKELY A LOWER SEVERE THREAT.
POPS ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...LEFT THESE LAST 36 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST DRY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE
AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MAIN JET AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS...AND WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE
SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MID-HIGH LEVEL.  WE COULD GET A
THUNDERSHOWER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
TROUGH AXIS...BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AND TIMING IS DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE. ANY FOG CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN EAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SINCE THIS AUGUST RAINFALL BLURB WAS UPDATED 4 DAYS AGO...MONTHLY
TOTALS HAVE GOTTEN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA IS ON TRACK TO FINISH
WITH 5+ INCHES FOR THE MONTH...AND AT LEAST SMALLER LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF 8+ INCHES. PUT ANOTHER WAY...A SOLID 200-300 PERCENT OF
AUGUST NORMALS FOR MANY PLACES. HERE ARE A FEW AUGUST-TO-DATE
RAINFALL DETAILS ABOUT THREE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITES WITHIN OUR
CWA...INCLUDING OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS:

- YORK 3N (OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER): WITH 11.46 INCHES
SO FAR THIS MONTH YORK HAS ALREADY ACHIEVED ITS OUTRIGHT-WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD OUT OF 121 AVAILABLE YEARS DATING TO 1893. THIS
ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS AUGUST MARK OF 10.03 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS AIRPORT: WITH 7.54 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...HASTINGS
HAS MOVED INTO 6TH-PLACE OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...BUT WOULD
NEED AT LEAST 2.33 MORE INCHES TO TOP THE CURRENT MAX AUGUST RAIN
OF 9.86 INCHES IN 1903.

- GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT: WITH 5.85 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...GRAND
ISLAND HAS CREPT UP TO 9TH-PLACE OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL 2.88 INCHES SHORT OF THE CURRENT TOP SPOT
OF 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 291058
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
558 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL. A WELL-DEFINED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE HIGH/CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING IN OUR
EAST NEAR A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MAJORITY OF MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION TODAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE
THE FIRST PLACE WE GET REDEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TODAY. THE BIG PROBLEM LIES IN WHERE MORE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A SMALL
PERTURBATION BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS FINALLY CLEAR US OF ANY
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...WE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. WE WILL TOP OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...AND THE BEST CAPE WILL REMAIN IN OUR FAR
EAST...PROBABLY TOPPING 1000 J/KG IN OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG STORM...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL THAT I
WOULD ANTICIPATE.

I SIDED MORE WITH NAM FOR HIGHS TODAY AND CONSRAW FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NOW THAT THIS FIRST SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DEPARTING STAGE-RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
OBVIOUS HIGHLIGHT OF THIS 6-DAY LONG TERM PERIOD IS SQUARELY
FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIALLY FAIRLY-DECENT-BY-AUGUST-STANDARDS RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME.
GIVEN THIS EVENT IS STILL ABOUT 60 HOURS OUT...THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF WIGGLE ROOM IN THE MODEL WORLD FOR THE TIMING/LOCATION
TO CHANGE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY...BUT THE 00Z OR 06Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE KEY
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT APPEARS POTENTIALLY
POTENT BY AUGUST STANDARDS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF A DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THREAT...WITH MAYBE AT LEAST A LIMITED TORNADO RISK AS
WELL...ITS IMPORTANT NOT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS AT THIS POINT
ITS ONLY A BASELINE SLIGHT RISK PER SPC ON THE NEW DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
HYDRO-WISE FOR THIS EVENT...OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS AUGUST GIVES WAY
TO SEPTEMBER MAY NOT BE ALL THAT WELCOME...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD IN THEORY AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OF RAIN.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK...ITS OVERALL
LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET 6-DAY PERIOD...AS IN FACT THE ONLY
OFFICIAL 20 PERCENT-OR-HIGHER MENTIONS OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED TO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING DISTURBANCE THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE AS
MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE SUNDAY ONE. BEYOND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE REST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY AT LEAST FOR NOW...A SCENARIO THAT IS FAIRLY WELL
SUPPORTED BY ESPECIALLY THE LATEST ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF POTENTIAL OFF-AND-ON FUTURE
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN CWA.

TEMP-WISE...NO MAJOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AS
READINGS BOUNCE AROUND GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO MOST HIGHS/LOWS...WITH THE
SOMEWHAT MORE NOTABLE TWEAKS BEING A 2-3 DEGREE UPWARD NUDGE TO
SUNDAY HIGHS AND COMPARABLE DOWNWARD NUDGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS.
AFTER A BIT OF A COOLER RECENT STRETCH FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...THINGS TREND A BIT WARMER...WITH NEB HIGHS ON MOST DAYS
AIMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND KS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S LOW
90S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AND THE WARMEST DAYS A FAIRLY CLOSE CALL BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY.

GETTING INTO SOME METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN 24+ HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOCAL AREA EXPERIENCES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD NOW...AND THE NEXT MORE PROGRESSIVE/ENERGETIC TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. ALTHOUGH
SUPPOSE A ROGUE VERY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION SAT MORNING...THE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IS FOR A
DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM AUGUST DAY WITH BREEZES
ONLY AVERAGING 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEPT THE EVENING HOURS DRY BEFORE KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM ENTER
THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON COVERAGE AS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A LITTLE ACTIVITY AROUND...IT DOESN/T LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS CLEARLY THE MAIN SHOW
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AS THE MAIN TROUGH AND SEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK RACE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NEB/SD/IA AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL CRANK UP A BIT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT APPEARS TO BE INVADING THE WESTERN CWA BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM SETTLED...THE 06Z NAM DEPICTION OF
POTENTIALLY 3000+ J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT CONCERNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES A JUNE SETUP. TIME WILL TELL IF INITIAL
STORMS MAY STAY ISOLATED LONG ENOUGH TO YIELD AT LEAST A MARGINAL
TOR THREAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EASILY FORCE A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. POPS WERE HELD IN 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE CATEGORY PRIOR TO
00Z/7PM...BUT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED 60 PERCENT LIKELIES IN EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE RAMPING DOWN AS PRECIP EXITS
POST-MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 48 HOURS ARE LOOKING MOSTLY
DRY UNDER SEASONABLY STRONG QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE
MAIN EXCEPTION BEING MONDAY NIGHT AS ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF IS
BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING WAVE ACROSS NEB/SD/IA...BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LIKELY A LOWER SEVERE THREAT.
POPS ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...LEFT THESE LAST 36 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST DRY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE
AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MAIN JET AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS...AND WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE
SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MID-HIGH LEVEL.  WE COULD GET A
THUNDERSHOWER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
TROUGH AXIS...BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AND TIMING IS DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE. ANY FOG CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN EAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SINCE THIS AUGUST RAINFALL BLURB WAS UPDATED 4 DAYS AGO...MONTHLY
TOTALS HAVE GOTTEN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA IS ON TRACK TO FINISH
WITH 5+ INCHES FOR THE MONTH...AND AT LEAST SMALLER LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF 8+ INCHES. PUT ANOTHER WAY...A SOLID 200-300 PERCENT OF
AUGUST NORMALS FOR MANY PLACES. HERE ARE A FEW AUGUST-TO-DATE
RAINFALL DETAILS ABOUT THREE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITES WITHIN OUR
CWA...INCLUDING OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS:

- YORK 3N (OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER): WITH 11.46 INCHES
SO FAR THIS MONTH YORK HAS ALREADY ACHIEVED ITS OUTRIGHT-WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD OUT OF 121 AVAILABLE YEARS DATING TO 1893. THIS
ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS AUGUST MARK OF 10.03 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS AIRPORT: WITH 7.54 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...HASTINGS
HAS MOVED INTO 6TH-PLACE OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...BUT WOULD
NEED AT LEAST 2.33 MORE INCHES TO TOP THE CURRENT MAX AUGUST RAIN
OF 9.86 INCHES IN 1903.

- GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT: WITH 5.85 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...GRAND
ISLAND HAS CREPT UP TO 9TH-PLACE OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL 2.88 INCHES SHORT OF THE CURRENT TOP SPOT
OF 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 291005
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL. A WELL-DEFINED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE HIGH/CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING IN OUR
EAST NEAR A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MAJORITY OF MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION TODAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE
THE FIRST PLACE WE GET REDEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TODAY. THE BIG PROBLEM LIES IN WHERE MORE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A SMALL
PERTURBATION BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS FINALLY CLEAR US OF ANY
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...WE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. WE WILL TOP OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...AND THE BEST CAPE WILL REMAIN IN OUR FAR
EAST...PROBABLY TOPPING 1000 J/KG IN OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG STORM...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL THAT I
WOULD ANTICIPATE.

I SIDED MORE WITH NAM FOR HIGHS TODAY AND CONSRAW FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NOW THAT THIS FIRST SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DEPARTING STAGE-RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
OBVIOUS HIGHLIGHT OF THIS 6-DAY LONG TERM PERIOD IS SQUARELY
FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIALLY FAIRLY-DECENT-BY-AUGUST-STANDARDS RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME.
GIVEN THIS EVENT IS STILL ABOUT 60 HOURS OUT...THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF WIGGLE ROOM IN THE MODEL WORLD FOR THE TIMING/LOCATION
TO CHANGE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY...BUT THE 00Z OR 06Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE KEY
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT APPEARS POTENTIALLY
POTENT BY AUGUST STANDARDS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF A DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THREAT...WITH MAYBE AT LEAST A LIMITED TORNADO RISK AS
WELL...ITS IMPORTANT NOT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS AT THIS POINT
ITS ONLY A BASELINE SLIGHT RISK PER SPC ON THE NEW DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
HYDRO-WISE FOR THIS EVENT...OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS AUGUST GIVES WAY
TO SEPTEMBER MAY NOT BE ALL THAT WELCOME...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD IN THEORY AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OF RAIN.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK...ITS OVERALL
LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET 6-DAY PERIOD...AS IN FACT THE ONLY
OFFICIAL 20 PERCENT-OR-HIGHER MENTIONS OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED TO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING DISTURBANCE THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE AS
MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE SUNDAY ONE. BEYOND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE REST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY AT LEAST FOR NOW...A SCENARIO THAT IS FAIRLY WELL
SUPPORTED BY ESPECIALLY THE LATEST ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF POTENTIAL OFF-AND-ON FUTURE
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN CWA.

TEMP-WISE...NO MAJOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AS
READINGS BOUNCE AROUND GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO MOST HIGHS/LOWS...WITH THE
SOMEWHAT MORE NOTABLE TWEAKS BEING A 2-3 DEGREE UPWARD NUDGE TO
SUNDAY HIGHS AND COMPARABLE DOWNWARD NUDGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS.
AFTER A BIT OF A COOLER RECENT STRETCH FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...THINGS TREND A BIT WARMER...WITH NEB HIGHS ON MOST DAYS
AIMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND KS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S LOW
90S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AND THE WARMEST DAYS A FAIRLY CLOSE CALL BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY.

GETTING INTO SOME METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN 24+ HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOCAL AREA EXPERIENCES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD NOW...AND THE NEXT MORE PROGRESSIVE/ENERGETIC TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. ALTHOUGH
SUPPOSE A ROGUE VERY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION SAT MORNING...THE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IS FOR A
DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM AUGUST DAY WITH BREEZES
ONLY AVERAGING 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEPT THE EVENING HOURS DRY BEFORE KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM ENTER
THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON COVERAGE AS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A LITTLE ACTIVITY AROUND...IT DOESN/T LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS CLEARLY THE MAIN SHOW
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AS THE MAIN TROUGH AND SEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK RACE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NEB/SD/IA AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL CRANK UP A BIT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT APPEARS TO BE INVADING THE WESTERN CWA BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM SETTLED...THE 06Z NAM DEPICTION OF
POTENTIALLY 3000+ J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT CONCERNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES A JUNE SETUP. TIME WILL TELL IF INITIAL
STORMS MAY STAY ISOLATED LONG ENOUGH TO YIELD AT LEAST A MARGINAL
TOR THREAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EASILY FORCE A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. POPS WERE HELD IN 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE CATEGORY PRIOR TO
00Z/7PM...BUT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED 60 PERCENT LIKELIES IN EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE RAMPING DOWN AS PRECIP EXITS
POST-MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 48 HOURS ARE LOOKING MOSTLY
DRY UNDER SEASONABLY STRONG QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE
MAIN EXCEPTION BEING MONDAY NIGHT AS ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF IS
BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING WAVE ACROSS NEB/SD/IA...BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LIKELY A LOWER SEVERE THREAT.
POPS ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...LEFT THESE LAST 36 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST DRY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE
AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MAIN JET AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS...AND WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE
SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SKY COVER
WILL REMAIN MID-HIGH LEVEL. DISCOUNTING FOG AND STRATUS ADVERTISED
BY THE NAM NUMERICAL MODEL. WE COULD GET A THUNDERSHOWER DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROUGH AXIS...BUT CHANCES
ARE FAIRLY LOW AND TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SINCE THIS AUGUST RAINFALL BLURB WAS UPDATED 4 DAYS AGO...MONTHLY
TOTALS HAVE GOTTEN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA IS ON TRACK TO FINISH
WITH 5+ INCHES FOR THE MONTH...AND AT LEAST SMALLER LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF 8+ INCHES. PUT ANOTHER WAY...A SOLID 200-300 PERCENT OF
AUGUST NORMALS FOR MANY PLACES. HERE ARE A FEW AUGUST-TO-DATE
RAINFALL DETAILS ABOUT THREE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITES WITHIN OUR
CWA...INCLUDING OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS:

- YORK 3N (OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER): WITH 11.46 INCHES
SO FAR THIS MONTH YORK HAS ALREADY ACHIEVED ITS OUTRIGHT-WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD OUT OF 121 AVAILABLE YEARS DATING TO 1893. THIS
ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS AUGUST MARK OF 10.03 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS AIRPORT: WITH 7.54 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...HASTINGS
HAS MOVED INTO 6TH-PLACE OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...BUT WOULD
NEED AT LEAST 2.33 MORE INCHES TO TOP THE CURRENT MAX AUGUST RAIN
OF 9.86 INCHES IN 1903.

- GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT: WITH 5.85 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...GRAND
ISLAND HAS CREPT UP TO 9TH-PLACE OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL 2.88 INCHES SHORT OF THE CURRENT TOP SPOT
OF 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 291005
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL. A WELL-DEFINED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE HIGH/CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING IN OUR
EAST NEAR A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MAJORITY OF MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION TODAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IN OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE
THE FIRST PLACE WE GET REDEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TODAY. THE BIG PROBLEM LIES IN WHERE MORE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A SMALL
PERTURBATION BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS FINALLY CLEAR US OF ANY
PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...WE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. WE WILL TOP OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...AND THE BEST CAPE WILL REMAIN IN OUR FAR
EAST...PROBABLY TOPPING 1000 J/KG IN OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG STORM...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL THAT I
WOULD ANTICIPATE.

I SIDED MORE WITH NAM FOR HIGHS TODAY AND CONSRAW FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NOW THAT THIS FIRST SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DEPARTING STAGE-RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
OBVIOUS HIGHLIGHT OF THIS 6-DAY LONG TERM PERIOD IS SQUARELY
FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIALLY FAIRLY-DECENT-BY-AUGUST-STANDARDS RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME.
GIVEN THIS EVENT IS STILL ABOUT 60 HOURS OUT...THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF WIGGLE ROOM IN THE MODEL WORLD FOR THE TIMING/LOCATION
TO CHANGE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY...BUT THE 00Z OR 06Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE KEY
FEATURES AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT APPEARS POTENTIALLY
POTENT BY AUGUST STANDARDS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF A DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THREAT...WITH MAYBE AT LEAST A LIMITED TORNADO RISK AS
WELL...ITS IMPORTANT NOT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AS AT THIS POINT
ITS ONLY A BASELINE SLIGHT RISK PER SPC ON THE NEW DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
HYDRO-WISE FOR THIS EVENT...OBVIOUSLY THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA AS AUGUST GIVES WAY
TO SEPTEMBER MAY NOT BE ALL THAT WELCOME...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD IN THEORY AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OF RAIN.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK...ITS OVERALL
LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET 6-DAY PERIOD...AS IN FACT THE ONLY
OFFICIAL 20 PERCENT-OR-HIGHER MENTIONS OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED TO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING DISTURBANCE THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE AS
MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE SUNDAY ONE. BEYOND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE REST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS
BEEN KEPT DRY AT LEAST FOR NOW...A SCENARIO THAT IS FAIRLY WELL
SUPPORTED BY ESPECIALLY THE LATEST ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF POTENTIAL OFF-AND-ON FUTURE
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN CWA.

TEMP-WISE...NO MAJOR FLUCTUATIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AS
READINGS BOUNCE AROUND GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO MOST HIGHS/LOWS...WITH THE
SOMEWHAT MORE NOTABLE TWEAKS BEING A 2-3 DEGREE UPWARD NUDGE TO
SUNDAY HIGHS AND COMPARABLE DOWNWARD NUDGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS.
AFTER A BIT OF A COOLER RECENT STRETCH FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...THINGS TREND A BIT WARMER...WITH NEB HIGHS ON MOST DAYS
AIMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND KS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S LOW
90S. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE OVERALL-COOLEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AND THE WARMEST DAYS A FAIRLY CLOSE CALL BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
THURSDAY.

GETTING INTO SOME METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL IN 24+ HOUR BLOCKS:

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOCAL AREA EXPERIENCES A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD NOW...AND THE NEXT MORE PROGRESSIVE/ENERGETIC TROUGH
SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. ALTHOUGH
SUPPOSE A ROGUE VERY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION SAT MORNING...THE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IS FOR A
DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM AUGUST DAY WITH BREEZES
ONLY AVERAGING 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...KEPT THE EVENING HOURS DRY BEFORE KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM ENTER
THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON COVERAGE AS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A LITTLE ACTIVITY AROUND...IT DOESN/T LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS IS CLEARLY THE MAIN SHOW
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AS THE MAIN TROUGH AND SEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK RACE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NEB/SD/IA AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL CRANK UP A BIT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT APPEARS TO BE INVADING THE WESTERN CWA BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM SETTLED...THE 06Z NAM DEPICTION OF
POTENTIALLY 3000+ J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT CONCERNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES A JUNE SETUP. TIME WILL TELL IF INITIAL
STORMS MAY STAY ISOLATED LONG ENOUGH TO YIELD AT LEAST A MARGINAL
TOR THREAT...BUT IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD EASILY FORCE A SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS. POPS WERE HELD IN 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE CATEGORY PRIOR TO
00Z/7PM...BUT HAVE NOW INTRODUCED 60 PERCENT LIKELIES IN EASTERN
ZONES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE RAMPING DOWN AS PRECIP EXITS
POST-MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY NIGHT...THESE 48 HOURS ARE LOOKING MOSTLY
DRY UNDER SEASONABLY STRONG QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE
MAIN EXCEPTION BEING MONDAY NIGHT AS ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF IS
BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING WAVE ACROSS NEB/SD/IA...BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LIKELY A LOWER SEVERE THREAT.
POPS ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME...LEFT THESE LAST 36 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST DRY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE
AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MAIN JET AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS...AND WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE
SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SKY COVER
WILL REMAIN MID-HIGH LEVEL. DISCOUNTING FOG AND STRATUS ADVERTISED
BY THE NAM NUMERICAL MODEL. WE COULD GET A THUNDERSHOWER DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROUGH AXIS...BUT CHANCES
ARE FAIRLY LOW AND TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SINCE THIS AUGUST RAINFALL BLURB WAS UPDATED 4 DAYS AGO...MONTHLY
TOTALS HAVE GOTTEN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 30-COUNTY AREA IS ON TRACK TO FINISH
WITH 5+ INCHES FOR THE MONTH...AND AT LEAST SMALLER LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF 8+ INCHES. PUT ANOTHER WAY...A SOLID 200-300 PERCENT OF
AUGUST NORMALS FOR MANY PLACES. HERE ARE A FEW AUGUST-TO-DATE
RAINFALL DETAILS ABOUT THREE OFFICIAL OBSERVATION SITES WITHIN OUR
CWA...INCLUDING OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORD SITES GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS:

- YORK 3N (OFFICIAL NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVER): WITH 11.46 INCHES
SO FAR THIS MONTH YORK HAS ALREADY ACHIEVED ITS OUTRIGHT-WETTEST
AUGUST ON RECORD OUT OF 121 AVAILABLE YEARS DATING TO 1893. THIS
ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS AUGUST MARK OF 10.03 INCHES IN 1977.

- HASTINGS AIRPORT: WITH 7.54 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...HASTINGS
HAS MOVED INTO 6TH-PLACE OUT OF 120 YEARS DATING TO 1895...BUT WOULD
NEED AT LEAST 2.33 MORE INCHES TO TOP THE CURRENT MAX AUGUST RAIN
OF 9.86 INCHES IN 1903.

- GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT: WITH 5.85 INCHES SO FAR THIS MONTH...GRAND
ISLAND HAS CREPT UP TO 9TH-PLACE OUT OF 119 YEARS DATING TO 1896.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL 2.88 INCHES SHORT OF THE CURRENT TOP SPOT
OF 8.73 INCHES IN 1977.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 290900
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM ACROSS CANADA AND ALASKA WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS
PRESENT. CLOSED LOWS WERE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AS WELL AS OFF THE COAST OF NRN ALASKA. ACROSS THE
CONUS...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA...AS
WELL AS THE FAR SERN CONUS. CLOSER TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. UPSTREAM OF
THIS FEATURE...A NICE SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
MT. RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...HAS A NICE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KS INTO
FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH ALL ACTIVITY OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED OVERNIGHT
WEST OF A LINE FROM ATKINSON TO BROKEN BOW WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 54 AT OGALLALA TO 65 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS A MINIMAL
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS MORNING IN THE
EASTERN CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. FURTHER WEST...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER
SRN MT APPROACHES THE NEBR PANHANDLE. WITH HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DECIDED TO KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM
AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN WHAT WE HAD A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS IS EVIDENT IN PWATS OF 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH
VS. THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH PWATS OF A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. WE WILL BE
IN A VERY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO STORMS WILL BE OF
THE PULSE TYPE WITH SHORT DURATION EXPECTED. WITH COOLING THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY BY 03Z.
AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WITH
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A LITTLE RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD
AID IN LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND A FEW LOWER 90S. FORECAST IS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...GOING WITH THE LOWER GUIDANCE OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...CONSIDERING MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
INCHES THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE GROUND WILL STILL BE DAMP.

MEANWHILE EYES BEGIN TO FOCUS ON THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC
NW. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY ON SUNDAY...AS
A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 2K TO 4K J/KG AND 40 TO 55 KTS OF SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE CONCERN IS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AT PEAK
HEAT. GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO SEE DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSES
RATE POST FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS.

ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MODELS IN AGREEMENT
ENDING PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT...AND FORECAST HAS GONE DRY OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST FOLLOWS COOL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPS TRENDING COOLER.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW POPS CONTINUED. THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL SLOWLY BECOME
WESTSOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS KEEP MOISTURE PLUM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPS WILL BE ON
A SLOW CLIMB. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...A TROUGH WILL
DIG IN ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS THIS SET UP
WILL LIKELY BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAD ENDED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WITH COOL AIR COMING ACROSS BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT LATE
TONIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY COOL ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE BR/FG IN VALLEYS AND IN AND AROUND WETLANDS. SINCE LBF
IS ADJACENT TO A WETLAND AND THE EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED FAIRLY
UNIFORMLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOCALIZED FOG IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR THE TIME BEING...THOUGH...WE WILL
INCLUDE ONLY 3SM BCFG IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR LBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 290900
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM ACROSS CANADA AND ALASKA WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS
PRESENT. CLOSED LOWS WERE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AS WELL AS OFF THE COAST OF NRN ALASKA. ACROSS THE
CONUS...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA...AS
WELL AS THE FAR SERN CONUS. CLOSER TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. UPSTREAM OF
THIS FEATURE...A NICE SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
MT. RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...HAS A NICE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KS INTO
FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH ALL ACTIVITY OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED OVERNIGHT
WEST OF A LINE FROM ATKINSON TO BROKEN BOW WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 54 AT OGALLALA TO 65 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS A MINIMAL
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS MORNING IN THE
EASTERN CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. FURTHER WEST...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER
SRN MT APPROACHES THE NEBR PANHANDLE. WITH HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DECIDED TO KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM
AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN WHAT WE HAD A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS IS EVIDENT IN PWATS OF 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH
VS. THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH PWATS OF A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. WE WILL BE
IN A VERY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO STORMS WILL BE OF
THE PULSE TYPE WITH SHORT DURATION EXPECTED. WITH COOLING THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY BY 03Z.
AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WITH
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A LITTLE RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD
AID IN LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND A FEW LOWER 90S. FORECAST IS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...GOING WITH THE LOWER GUIDANCE OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...CONSIDERING MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
INCHES THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE GROUND WILL STILL BE DAMP.

MEANWHILE EYES BEGIN TO FOCUS ON THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC
NW. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY ON SUNDAY...AS
A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 2K TO 4K J/KG AND 40 TO 55 KTS OF SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE CONCERN IS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AT PEAK
HEAT. GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO SEE DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSES
RATE POST FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS.

ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MODELS IN AGREEMENT
ENDING PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT...AND FORECAST HAS GONE DRY OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST FOLLOWS COOL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPS TRENDING COOLER.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW POPS CONTINUED. THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL SLOWLY BECOME
WESTSOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS KEEP MOISTURE PLUM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPS WILL BE ON
A SLOW CLIMB. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...A TROUGH WILL
DIG IN ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS THIS SET UP
WILL LIKELY BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAD ENDED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WITH COOL AIR COMING ACROSS BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT LATE
TONIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY COOL ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE BR/FG IN VALLEYS AND IN AND AROUND WETLANDS. SINCE LBF
IS ADJACENT TO A WETLAND AND THE EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED FAIRLY
UNIFORMLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOCALIZED FOG IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR THE TIME BEING...THOUGH...WE WILL
INCLUDE ONLY 3SM BCFG IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR LBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 290825
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE IN REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN FEATURES FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 70 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 40 METERS WERE NOTED AT AMARILLO AND DODGE
CITY. DECENT MOISTURE WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE KOAX SOUNDING WAS STILL FAIRLY MOIST
WITH 1.70 PRECIPITABLE WATER.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO
WEST TEXAS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST HAD MADE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS SINCE LAST EVENING. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON US UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS GOING TODAY...SINCE WE SHOULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z NAM INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER
2000 J/KG BY AROUND NOON. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AFTER 1 PM. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT TSTMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME LOW POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO
COLUMBUS. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL WERE A BIT SLOWER
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH SHOW SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS MORE CORRECT...
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY HIGHER SUNDAY EVENING THAN
IF THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFY BETTER. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY...THAT SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEN THE FLOW IS
FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS MID AMERICA INTO WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY ABSENT...NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE A LOT DRIER THAN THIS WEEK HAS BEEN. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
FROM MAINLY 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS WILL INCREASE FROM 60S TO
AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION AROUND OR DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WILL AFFECT KOFK
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND KOMA 08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 10-15Z...WITH
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLNK/KOMA 16-22Z. WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 290825
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE IN REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN FEATURES FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 70 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WAS AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO AROUND 40 METERS WERE NOTED AT AMARILLO AND DODGE
CITY. DECENT MOISTURE WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB AND 850 MB AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE KOAX SOUNDING WAS STILL FAIRLY MOIST
WITH 1.70 PRECIPITABLE WATER.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO
WEST TEXAS. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST HAD MADE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS SINCE LAST EVENING. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON US UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS GOING TODAY...SINCE WE SHOULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z NAM INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER
2000 J/KG BY AROUND NOON. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP MODEL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AFTER 1 PM. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING OUT.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT TSTMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME LOW POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNE TO
COLUMBUS. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL WERE A BIT SLOWER
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH SHOW SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE NAM IS MORE CORRECT...
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY HIGHER SUNDAY EVENING THAN
IF THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFY BETTER. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S AND MAYBE NEAR 90 FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BUT LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY...THAT SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEN THE FLOW IS
FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS MID AMERICA INTO WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY ABSENT...NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE A LOT DRIER THAN THIS WEEK HAS BEEN. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
FROM MAINLY 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS WILL INCREASE FROM 60S TO
AROUND 70 OR THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION AROUND OR DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WILL AFFECT KOFK
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND KOMA 08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 10-15Z...WITH
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLNK/KOMA 16-22Z. WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 290557
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1257 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN
CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND OVERALL LESS HEAVY THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS VERY SLOWLY BEEN SLIDING EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO
OUR CWA BY DAWN. AS LONG AS WE ARE OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE 18Z NAM AND A RUN OR TWO OF THE HRRR ARE NOW HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET AROUND HIGHWAY 281 OR A LITTLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
281. IF THESE STORMS FORM THEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LOW END SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND EVENT. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RATHER LOW TODAY DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
ONLY AROUND 30 KTS...WHICH IS WEAK TO MODEST AND CERTAINLY NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...GIVEN A FAIRLY
SIMILAR MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO LAST NIGHT BEING LOCATED OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH JUST A BIT LESS LIFT OUR PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL REALLY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN...BUT JUST LIKELY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE OTHER NIGHT. THE GROUND IS VERY SATURATED ACROSS
PRETTY MUCH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT
IN RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. AM MOST CONCERNED FOR THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z NAM.
OVERALL...THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN IS LOWER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE AREA WILL BE LESS AND IT IS HARD TO
PIN POINT EXACTLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MORE BROAD FAVORABLE ZONE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE CHANCES OF STORMS FRIDAY AND THEN CHANCES
OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AND TIMING OF MAJOR
FEATURES AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN GENERAL THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FORECAST TO MORPH FROM A CUTOFF LOW PATTERN BACK TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...SO OUT OF A HEAVY RAIN PATTERN AND BACK INTO A SEVERE WEATHER
TYPE REGIME.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAD BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND LEAVE DRY
WEATHER BEHIND. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
STORMS...BUT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING THE FIRST DRY AND
WARM DAY IN QUITE A WHILE. LOW CHANCES OF STORMS ARE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF STORMS FROM MID DAY SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING
IS MORE IMPRESSIVE. A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE THE TIMING AN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR ARE MORE COMMON FOR MAY THAN AUGUST. SO
THERE IS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. AS WITH ANY FORECAST OF CONVECTION SO MANY DAYS OUT THE
MODELS WILL LIKELY CHANGE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

AS FOR THE WORK WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL...MUCH
DRIER THAN THIS LAST WEEK...BUT HARD TO RULE OUT A HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
STILL WAFFLING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES SO WILL LEAVE
DRY OR LOW PROBABILITIES UNTIL OUR CONFIDENCE RISES MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SKY COVER
WILL REMAIN MID-HIGH LEVEL. DISCOUNTING FOG AND STRATUS ADVERTISED
BY THE NAM NUMERICAL MODEL. WE COULD GET A THUNDERSHOWER DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROUGH AXIS...BUT CHANCES
ARE FAIRLY LOW AND TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 290557
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1257 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN
CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND OVERALL LESS HEAVY THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS VERY SLOWLY BEEN SLIDING EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO
OUR CWA BY DAWN. AS LONG AS WE ARE OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE 18Z NAM AND A RUN OR TWO OF THE HRRR ARE NOW HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET AROUND HIGHWAY 281 OR A LITTLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
281. IF THESE STORMS FORM THEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LOW END SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND EVENT. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RATHER LOW TODAY DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
ONLY AROUND 30 KTS...WHICH IS WEAK TO MODEST AND CERTAINLY NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...GIVEN A FAIRLY
SIMILAR MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO LAST NIGHT BEING LOCATED OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH JUST A BIT LESS LIFT OUR PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL REALLY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN...BUT JUST LIKELY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE OTHER NIGHT. THE GROUND IS VERY SATURATED ACROSS
PRETTY MUCH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT
IN RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. AM MOST CONCERNED FOR THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z NAM.
OVERALL...THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN IS LOWER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE AREA WILL BE LESS AND IT IS HARD TO
PIN POINT EXACTLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MORE BROAD FAVORABLE ZONE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE CHANCES OF STORMS FRIDAY AND THEN CHANCES
OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AND TIMING OF MAJOR
FEATURES AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN GENERAL THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FORECAST TO MORPH FROM A CUTOFF LOW PATTERN BACK TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...SO OUT OF A HEAVY RAIN PATTERN AND BACK INTO A SEVERE WEATHER
TYPE REGIME.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAD BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND LEAVE DRY
WEATHER BEHIND. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
STORMS...BUT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING THE FIRST DRY AND
WARM DAY IN QUITE A WHILE. LOW CHANCES OF STORMS ARE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF STORMS FROM MID DAY SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING
IS MORE IMPRESSIVE. A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE THE TIMING AN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR ARE MORE COMMON FOR MAY THAN AUGUST. SO
THERE IS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. AS WITH ANY FORECAST OF CONVECTION SO MANY DAYS OUT THE
MODELS WILL LIKELY CHANGE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

AS FOR THE WORK WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL...MUCH
DRIER THAN THIS LAST WEEK...BUT HARD TO RULE OUT A HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
STILL WAFFLING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES SO WILL LEAVE
DRY OR LOW PROBABILITIES UNTIL OUR CONFIDENCE RISES MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SKY COVER
WILL REMAIN MID-HIGH LEVEL. DISCOUNTING FOG AND STRATUS ADVERTISED
BY THE NAM NUMERICAL MODEL. WE COULD GET A THUNDERSHOWER DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROUGH AXIS...BUT CHANCES
ARE FAIRLY LOW AND TIMING IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 290454
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1154 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE AS OF 19Z WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTRAL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

WE MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ACCOUNTING FOR THE
LINE OF STORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MULLEN THROUGH THEDFORD TO BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TONIGHT. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WOULD EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...A CU
FIELD HAD DEVELOPED IN A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SANDHILLS ZONE AS OF 19Z AS SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTE TO THE BUILD UP OF
SFC INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY AS THE MAIN
SURGE OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOSTLY PUSHED EAST OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONTINUED DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 10K FEET AND PWATS ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FASTER AS
MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POPS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH GUIDANCE. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO BL HEATING AND CAA ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE MID
TERM AND THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS JUST A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH DISTURBANCES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ECMWF HOLDS
A MUCH STRONGER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHEREAS GFS WEAKENS
THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS ALLOWING A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE EC KEEPS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE AREA
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COOL FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING MAY BE A BIT FAST AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. ONLY PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. BETTER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE RETAINED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE CUT BACK QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS AND
IS MAINLY FOR TIMING QUESTIONS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS COOL AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT LINGERS. WARM FRONT LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAD ENDED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
WITH COOL AIR COMING ACROSS BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT LATE TONIGHT TO
EARLY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
BR/FG IN VALLEYS AND IN AND AROUND WETLANDS. SINCE LBF IS ADJACENT
TO A WETLAND AND THE EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED FAIRLY UNIFORMLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOCALIZED FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FOR THE TIME BEING...THOUGH...WE WILL INCLUDE ONLY 3SM BCFG IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST FOR LBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 290454
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1154 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE AS OF 19Z WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTRAL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

WE MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ACCOUNTING FOR THE
LINE OF STORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MULLEN THROUGH THEDFORD TO BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TONIGHT. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WOULD EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...A CU
FIELD HAD DEVELOPED IN A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SANDHILLS ZONE AS OF 19Z AS SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTE TO THE BUILD UP OF
SFC INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY AS THE MAIN
SURGE OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOSTLY PUSHED EAST OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONTINUED DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 10K FEET AND PWATS ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FASTER AS
MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POPS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH GUIDANCE. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO BL HEATING AND CAA ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE MID
TERM AND THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS JUST A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH DISTURBANCES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ECMWF HOLDS
A MUCH STRONGER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHEREAS GFS WEAKENS
THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS ALLOWING A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE EC KEEPS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE AREA
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COOL FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING MAY BE A BIT FAST AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. ONLY PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. BETTER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE RETAINED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE CUT BACK QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS AND
IS MAINLY FOR TIMING QUESTIONS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS COOL AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT LINGERS. WARM FRONT LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAD ENDED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
WITH COOL AIR COMING ACROSS BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT LATE TONIGHT TO
EARLY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
BR/FG IN VALLEYS AND IN AND AROUND WETLANDS. SINCE LBF IS ADJACENT
TO A WETLAND AND THE EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED FAIRLY UNIFORMLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOCALIZED FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FOR THE TIME BEING...THOUGH...WE WILL INCLUDE ONLY 3SM BCFG IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST FOR LBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 290440
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTS TO SPIN OVER ERN CO.
THIS WILL CONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ACRS NEB/IA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WEAK SFC LO OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO ERN
NEB BY FRI. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS REMAINS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDCS THAT INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDC THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS 700-300 MB DPVA INCREASES ACRS THE CWA. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT
STILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE SEE A LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
CONTD FORCING AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND
WITH SOME SFC HEATING IN THE MRNG WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE
NRN AND ERN 2/3 OF THE FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEAR THE
SFC BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK EWD BY FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM WEST TO E BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON SAT
AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A
STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS NEB
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR SVR WX IN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT ONCE THE CDFNT
PASSES THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION AROUND OR DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WILL AFFECT KOFK
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND KOMA 08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 10-15Z...WITH
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLNK/KOMA 16-22Z. WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 290440
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTS TO SPIN OVER ERN CO.
THIS WILL CONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ACRS NEB/IA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WEAK SFC LO OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO ERN
NEB BY FRI. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS REMAINS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDCS THAT INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDC THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS 700-300 MB DPVA INCREASES ACRS THE CWA. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT
STILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE SEE A LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
CONTD FORCING AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND
WITH SOME SFC HEATING IN THE MRNG WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE
NRN AND ERN 2/3 OF THE FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEAR THE
SFC BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK EWD BY FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM WEST TO E BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON SAT
AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A
STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS NEB
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR SVR WX IN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT ONCE THE CDFNT
PASSES THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION AROUND OR DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WILL AFFECT KOFK
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND KOMA 08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 10-15Z...WITH
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLNK/KOMA 16-22Z. WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 290440
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTS TO SPIN OVER ERN CO.
THIS WILL CONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ACRS NEB/IA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WEAK SFC LO OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO ERN
NEB BY FRI. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS REMAINS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDCS THAT INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDC THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS 700-300 MB DPVA INCREASES ACRS THE CWA. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT
STILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE SEE A LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
CONTD FORCING AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND
WITH SOME SFC HEATING IN THE MRNG WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE
NRN AND ERN 2/3 OF THE FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEAR THE
SFC BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK EWD BY FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM WEST TO E BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON SAT
AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A
STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS NEB
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR SVR WX IN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT ONCE THE CDFNT
PASSES THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION AROUND OR DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WILL AFFECT KOFK
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND KOMA 08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 10-15Z...WITH
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLNK/KOMA 16-22Z. WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 290440
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTS TO SPIN OVER ERN CO.
THIS WILL CONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ACRS NEB/IA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WEAK SFC LO OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO ERN
NEB BY FRI. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS REMAINS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDCS THAT INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDC THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS 700-300 MB DPVA INCREASES ACRS THE CWA. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT
STILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE SEE A LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
CONTD FORCING AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND
WITH SOME SFC HEATING IN THE MRNG WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE
NRN AND ERN 2/3 OF THE FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEAR THE
SFC BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK EWD BY FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM WEST TO E BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON SAT
AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A
STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS NEB
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR SVR WX IN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT ONCE THE CDFNT
PASSES THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION AROUND OR DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WILL AFFECT KOFK
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...KLNK THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...AND KOMA 08-12Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES 10-15Z...WITH
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK. COULD ALSO SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLNK/KOMA 16-22Z. WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KLBF 282352
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
652 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE AS OF 19Z WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTRAL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

WE MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ACCOUNTING FOR THE
LINE OF STORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MULLEN THROUGH THEDFORD TO BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TONIGHT. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WOULD EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...A CU
FIELD HAD DEVELOPED IN A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SANDHILLS ZONE AS OF 19Z AS SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTE TO THE BUILD UP OF
SFC INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY AS THE MAIN
SURGE OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOSTLY PUSHED EAST OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONTINUED DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 10K FEET AND PWATS ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FASTER AS
MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POPS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH GUIDANCE. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO BL HEATING AND CAA ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE MID
TERM AND THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS JUST A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH DISTURBANCES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ECMWF HOLDS
A MUCH STRONGER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHEREAS GFS WEAKENS
THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS ALLOWING A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE EC KEEPS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE AREA
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COOL FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING MAY BE A BIT FAST AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. ONLY PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. BETTER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE RETAINED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE CUT BACK QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS AND
IS MAINLY FOR TIMING QUESTIONS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS COOL AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT LINGERS. WARM FRONT LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AFFECTING VTN AND ANW FROM 00Z TO 02Z AND ONL AFTER 04Z. THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR ANY REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL AFFECT ANY ONE LOCATION. AFTER 04Z...THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FOR THE AREA AROUND ONL AND
BUB.

ONE SHORT RANGE RAPID UPDATE FORECAST SHOWS SOME PATCHY LO STRATUS
EAST OF IEN-OGA AFTER 12Z...BUT OTHER FORECAST OUTPUT DOES NOT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 282352
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
652 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE AS OF 19Z WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTRAL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

WE MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ACCOUNTING FOR THE
LINE OF STORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MULLEN THROUGH THEDFORD TO BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TONIGHT. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WOULD EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...A CU
FIELD HAD DEVELOPED IN A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SANDHILLS ZONE AS OF 19Z AS SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTE TO THE BUILD UP OF
SFC INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY AS THE MAIN
SURGE OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOSTLY PUSHED EAST OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONTINUED DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 10K FEET AND PWATS ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FASTER AS
MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POPS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH GUIDANCE. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO BL HEATING AND CAA ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE MID
TERM AND THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS JUST A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH DISTURBANCES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ECMWF HOLDS
A MUCH STRONGER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHEREAS GFS WEAKENS
THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS ALLOWING A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE EC KEEPS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE AREA
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COOL FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING MAY BE A BIT FAST AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. ONLY PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. BETTER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE RETAINED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE CUT BACK QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS AND
IS MAINLY FOR TIMING QUESTIONS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS COOL AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT LINGERS. WARM FRONT LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AFFECTING VTN AND ANW FROM 00Z TO 02Z AND ONL AFTER 04Z. THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR ANY REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL AFFECT ANY ONE LOCATION. AFTER 04Z...THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FOR THE AREA AROUND ONL AND
BUB.

ONE SHORT RANGE RAPID UPDATE FORECAST SHOWS SOME PATCHY LO STRATUS
EAST OF IEN-OGA AFTER 12Z...BUT OTHER FORECAST OUTPUT DOES NOT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 282352
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
652 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE AS OF 19Z WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTRAL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

WE MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ACCOUNTING FOR THE
LINE OF STORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MULLEN THROUGH THEDFORD TO BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TONIGHT. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WOULD EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...A CU
FIELD HAD DEVELOPED IN A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SANDHILLS ZONE AS OF 19Z AS SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTE TO THE BUILD UP OF
SFC INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY AS THE MAIN
SURGE OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOSTLY PUSHED EAST OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONTINUED DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 10K FEET AND PWATS ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FASTER AS
MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POPS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH GUIDANCE. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO BL HEATING AND CAA ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE MID
TERM AND THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS JUST A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH DISTURBANCES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ECMWF HOLDS
A MUCH STRONGER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHEREAS GFS WEAKENS
THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS ALLOWING A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE EC KEEPS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE AREA
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COOL FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING MAY BE A BIT FAST AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. ONLY PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. BETTER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE RETAINED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE CUT BACK QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS AND
IS MAINLY FOR TIMING QUESTIONS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS COOL AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT LINGERS. WARM FRONT LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AFFECTING VTN AND ANW FROM 00Z TO 02Z AND ONL AFTER 04Z. THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR ANY REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL AFFECT ANY ONE LOCATION. AFTER 04Z...THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FOR THE AREA AROUND ONL AND
BUB.

ONE SHORT RANGE RAPID UPDATE FORECAST SHOWS SOME PATCHY LO STRATUS
EAST OF IEN-OGA AFTER 12Z...BUT OTHER FORECAST OUTPUT DOES NOT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 282352
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
652 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE AS OF 19Z WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTRAL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

WE MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ACCOUNTING FOR THE
LINE OF STORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MULLEN THROUGH THEDFORD TO BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TONIGHT. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WOULD EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...A CU
FIELD HAD DEVELOPED IN A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SANDHILLS ZONE AS OF 19Z AS SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTE TO THE BUILD UP OF
SFC INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY AS THE MAIN
SURGE OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOSTLY PUSHED EAST OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONTINUED DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 10K FEET AND PWATS ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FASTER AS
MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POPS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH GUIDANCE. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO BL HEATING AND CAA ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE MID
TERM AND THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS JUST A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH DISTURBANCES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ECMWF HOLDS
A MUCH STRONGER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHEREAS GFS WEAKENS
THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS ALLOWING A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE EC KEEPS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE AREA
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COOL FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING MAY BE A BIT FAST AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. ONLY PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. BETTER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE RETAINED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE CUT BACK QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS AND
IS MAINLY FOR TIMING QUESTIONS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS COOL AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT LINGERS. WARM FRONT LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AFFECTING VTN AND ANW FROM 00Z TO 02Z AND ONL AFTER 04Z. THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR ANY REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL AFFECT ANY ONE LOCATION. AFTER 04Z...THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FOR THE AREA AROUND ONL AND
BUB.

ONE SHORT RANGE RAPID UPDATE FORECAST SHOWS SOME PATCHY LO STRATUS
EAST OF IEN-OGA AFTER 12Z...BUT OTHER FORECAST OUTPUT DOES NOT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KGID 282344
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
644 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN
CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND OVERALL LESS HEAVY THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS VERY SLOWLY BEEN SLIDING EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO
OUR CWA BY DAWN. AS LONG AS WE ARE OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE 18Z NAM AND A RUN OR TWO OF THE HRRR ARE NOW HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET AROUND HIGHWAY 281 OR A LITTLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
281. IF THESE STORMS FORM THEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LOW END SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND EVENT. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RATHER LOW TODAY DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
ONLY AROUND 30 KTS...WHICH IS WEAK TO MODEST AND CERTAINLY NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...GIVEN A FAIRLY
SIMILAR MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO LAST NIGHT BEING LOCATED OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH JUST A BIT LESS LIFT OUR PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL REALLY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN...BUT JUST LIKELY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE OTHER NIGHT. THE GROUND IS VERY SATURATED ACROSS
PRETTY MUCH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT
IN RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. AM MOST CONCERNED FOR THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z NAM.
OVERALL...THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN IS LOWER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE AREA WILL BE LESS AND IT IS HARD TO
PIN POINT EXACTLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MORE BROAD FAVORABLE ZONE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE CHANCES OF STORMS FRIDAY AND THEN CHANCES
OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AND TIMING OF MAJOR
FEATURES AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN GENERAL THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FORECAST TO MORPH FROM A CUTOFF LOW PATTERN BACK TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...SO OUT OF A HEAVY RAIN PATTERN AND BACK INTO A SEVERE WEATHER
TYPE REGIME.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAD BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND LEAVE DRY
WEATHER BEHIND. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
STORMS...BUT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING THE FIRST DRY AND
WARM DAY IN QUITE A WHILE. LOW CHANCES OF STORMS ARE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF STORMS FROM MID DAY SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING
IS MORE IMPRESSIVE. A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE THE TIMING AN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR ARE MORE COMMON FOR MAY THAN AUGUST. SO
THERE IS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. AS WITH ANY FORECAST OF CONVECTION SO MANY DAYS OUT THE
MODELS WILL LIKELY CHANGE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

AS FOR THE WORK WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL...MUCH
DRIER THAN THIS LAST WEEK...BUT HARD TO RULE OUT A HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
STILL WAFFLING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES SO WILL LEAVE
DRY OR LOW PROBABILITIES UNTIL OUR CONFIDENCE RISES MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

QUITE AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THE
TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SEEMS TO KEEP MOST
OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER AT BAY. A WEAK SURFACE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA TOWARD FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SEEMINGLY SOME RISK FOR RAIN...BUT MOST
MODELS HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE IN THE KEAR/KGRI AREAS AND HAVE
OPTED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. AS TROUGH APPROACHES A
PERIOD LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP...PROBABLY CLOSER TO KGRI. EVENTUALLY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND LEAD
TO A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...MORITZ



000
FXUS63 KGID 282344
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
644 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN
CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND OVERALL LESS HEAVY THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS VERY SLOWLY BEEN SLIDING EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO
OUR CWA BY DAWN. AS LONG AS WE ARE OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE 18Z NAM AND A RUN OR TWO OF THE HRRR ARE NOW HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET AROUND HIGHWAY 281 OR A LITTLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
281. IF THESE STORMS FORM THEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LOW END SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND EVENT. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RATHER LOW TODAY DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
ONLY AROUND 30 KTS...WHICH IS WEAK TO MODEST AND CERTAINLY NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...GIVEN A FAIRLY
SIMILAR MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO LAST NIGHT BEING LOCATED OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH JUST A BIT LESS LIFT OUR PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL REALLY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN...BUT JUST LIKELY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE OTHER NIGHT. THE GROUND IS VERY SATURATED ACROSS
PRETTY MUCH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT
IN RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. AM MOST CONCERNED FOR THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z NAM.
OVERALL...THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN IS LOWER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE AREA WILL BE LESS AND IT IS HARD TO
PIN POINT EXACTLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MORE BROAD FAVORABLE ZONE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE CHANCES OF STORMS FRIDAY AND THEN CHANCES
OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AND TIMING OF MAJOR
FEATURES AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN GENERAL THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FORECAST TO MORPH FROM A CUTOFF LOW PATTERN BACK TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...SO OUT OF A HEAVY RAIN PATTERN AND BACK INTO A SEVERE WEATHER
TYPE REGIME.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAD BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND LEAVE DRY
WEATHER BEHIND. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
STORMS...BUT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING THE FIRST DRY AND
WARM DAY IN QUITE A WHILE. LOW CHANCES OF STORMS ARE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF STORMS FROM MID DAY SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING
IS MORE IMPRESSIVE. A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE THE TIMING AN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR ARE MORE COMMON FOR MAY THAN AUGUST. SO
THERE IS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. AS WITH ANY FORECAST OF CONVECTION SO MANY DAYS OUT THE
MODELS WILL LIKELY CHANGE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

AS FOR THE WORK WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL...MUCH
DRIER THAN THIS LAST WEEK...BUT HARD TO RULE OUT A HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
STILL WAFFLING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES SO WILL LEAVE
DRY OR LOW PROBABILITIES UNTIL OUR CONFIDENCE RISES MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

QUITE AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THE
TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SEEMS TO KEEP MOST
OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER AT BAY. A WEAK SURFACE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA TOWARD FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SEEMINGLY SOME RISK FOR RAIN...BUT MOST
MODELS HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE IN THE KEAR/KGRI AREAS AND HAVE
OPTED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. AS TROUGH APPROACHES A
PERIOD LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP...PROBABLY CLOSER TO KGRI. EVENTUALLY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SETTLE IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND LEAD
TO A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...MORITZ




000
FXUS63 KOAX 282311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTS TO SPIN OVER ERN CO.
THIS WILL CONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ACRS NEB/IA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WEAK SFC LO OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO ERN
NEB BY FRI. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS REMAINS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDCS THAT INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDC THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS 700-300 MB DPVA INCREASES ACRS THE CWA. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT
STILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE SEE A LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
CONTD FORCING AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND
WITH SOME SFC HEATING IN THE MRNG WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE
NRN AND ERN 2/3 OF THE FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEAR THE
SFC BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK EWD BY FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM WEST TO E BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON SAT
AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A
STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS NEB
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR SVR WX IN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT ONCE THE CDFNT
PASSES THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND
IMPACT ON TAF SITES IS THE MAIN PROBLEM. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AT KLNK 07-11Z AND KOMA 08-12Z. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS BECOME MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK. SHOULD
BE BACK TO MVFR BY 16Z...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT KOMA 16-22Z TOMORROW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTS TO SPIN OVER ERN CO.
THIS WILL CONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ACRS NEB/IA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WEAK SFC LO OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO ERN
NEB BY FRI. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS REMAINS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDCS THAT INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDC THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS 700-300 MB DPVA INCREASES ACRS THE CWA. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT
STILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE SEE A LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
CONTD FORCING AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND
WITH SOME SFC HEATING IN THE MRNG WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE
NRN AND ERN 2/3 OF THE FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEAR THE
SFC BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK EWD BY FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM WEST TO E BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON SAT
AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A
STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS NEB
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR SVR WX IN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT ONCE THE CDFNT
PASSES THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND
IMPACT ON TAF SITES IS THE MAIN PROBLEM. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AT KLNK 07-11Z AND KOMA 08-12Z. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS BECOME MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK. SHOULD
BE BACK TO MVFR BY 16Z...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT KOMA 16-22Z TOMORROW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KLBF 282307
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
607 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE AS OF 19Z WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTRAL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TONIGHT. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WOULD EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...A CU
FIELD HAD DEVELOPED IN A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SANDHILLS ZONE AS OF 19Z AS SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTE TO THE BUILD UP OF
SFC INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY AS THE MAIN
SURGE OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOSTLY PUSHED EAST OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONTINUED DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 10K FEET AND PWATS ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FASTER AS
MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POPS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH GUIDANCE. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO BL HEATING AND CAA ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE MID
TERM AND THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS JUST A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH DISTURBANCES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ECMWF HOLDS
A MUCH STRONGER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHEREAS GFS WEAKENS
THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS ALLOWING A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE EC KEEPS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE AREA
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COOL FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING MAY BE A BIT FAST AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. ONLY PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. BETTER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE RETAINED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE CUT BACK QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS AND
IS MAINLY FOR TIMING QUESTIONS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS COOL AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT LINGERS. WARM FRONT LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AFFECTING VTN AND ANW FROM 00Z TO 02Z AND ONL AFTER 04Z. THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR ANY REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL AFFECT ANY ONE LOCATION. AFTER 04Z...THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FOR THE AREA AROUND ONL AND
BUB.

ONE SHORT RANGE RAPID UPDATE FORECAST SHOWS SOME PATCHY LO STRATUS
EAST OF IEN-OGA AFTER 12Z...BUT OTHER FORECAST OUTPUT DOES NOT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 282307
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
607 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE AS OF 19Z WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTRAL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TONIGHT. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WOULD EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...A CU
FIELD HAD DEVELOPED IN A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SANDHILLS ZONE AS OF 19Z AS SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTE TO THE BUILD UP OF
SFC INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY AS THE MAIN
SURGE OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOSTLY PUSHED EAST OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONTINUED DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 10K FEET AND PWATS ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FASTER AS
MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POPS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH GUIDANCE. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO BL HEATING AND CAA ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE MID
TERM AND THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS JUST A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH DISTURBANCES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ECMWF HOLDS
A MUCH STRONGER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHEREAS GFS WEAKENS
THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS ALLOWING A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE EC KEEPS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE AREA
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COOL FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING MAY BE A BIT FAST AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. ONLY PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. BETTER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE RETAINED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE CUT BACK QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS AND
IS MAINLY FOR TIMING QUESTIONS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS COOL AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT LINGERS. WARM FRONT LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AFFECTING VTN AND ANW FROM 00Z TO 02Z AND ONL AFTER 04Z. THE REST OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COVERAGE TOO LOW FOR ANY REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL AFFECT ANY ONE LOCATION. AFTER 04Z...THE
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FOR THE AREA AROUND ONL AND
BUB.

ONE SHORT RANGE RAPID UPDATE FORECAST SHOWS SOME PATCHY LO STRATUS
EAST OF IEN-OGA AFTER 12Z...BUT OTHER FORECAST OUTPUT DOES NOT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KGID 282052
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
352 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN
CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND OVERALL LESS HEAVY THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS VERY SLOWLY BEEN SLIDING EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO
OUR CWA BY DAWN. AS LONG AS WE ARE OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE 18Z NAM AND A RUN OR TWO OF THE HRRR ARE NOW HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET AROUND HIGHWAY 281 OR A LITTLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
281. IF THESE STORMS FORM THEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LOW END SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND EVENT. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RATHER LOW TODAY DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
ONLY AROUND 30 KTS...WHICH IS WEAK TO MODEST AND CERTAINLY NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...GIVEN A FAIRLY
SIMILAR MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO LAST NIGHT BEING LOCATED OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH JUST A BIT LESS LIFT OUR PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL REALLY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN...BUT JUST LIKELY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE OTHER NIGHT. THE GROUND IS VERY SATURATED ACROSS
PRETTY MUCH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT
IN RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. AM MOST CONCERNED FOR THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z NAM.
OVERALL...THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN IS LOWER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE AREA WILL BE LESS AND IT IS HARD TO
PIN POINT EXACTLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MORE BROAD FAVORABLE ZONE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE CHANCES OF STORMS FRIDAY AND THEN CHANCES
OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AND TIMING OF MAJOR
FEATURES AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN GENERAL THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FORECAST TO MORPH FROM A CUTOFF LOW PATTERN BACK TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...SO OUT OF A HEAVY RAIN PATTERN AND BACK INTO A SEVERE WEATHER
TYPE REGIME.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAD BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND LEAVE DRY
WEATHER BEHIND. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
STORMS...BUT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING THE FIRST DRY AND
WARM DAY IN QUITE A WHILE. LOW CHANCES OF STORMS ARE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF STORMS FROM MID DAY SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING
IS MORE IMPRESSIVE. A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE THE TIMING AN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR ARE MORE COMMON FOR MAY THAN AUGUST. SO
THERE IS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. AS WITH ANY FORECAST OF CONVECTION SO MANY DAYS OUT THE
MODELS WILL LIKELY CHANGE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

AS FOR THE WORK WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL...MUCH
DRIER THAN THIS LAST WEEK...BUT HARD TO RULE OUT A HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
STILL WAFFLING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES SO WILL LEAVE
DRY OR LOW PROBABILITIES UNTIL OUR CONFIDENCE RISES MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THIS IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD WITH CEILINGS BOUNCING AROUND
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE COME
DOWN SOME WITH STORMS BEING LESS WIDESPREAD THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
WILL SEE A SFC TROUGH AXIS TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD BE RATHER
VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 282052
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
352 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN
CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND OVERALL LESS HEAVY THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS VERY SLOWLY BEEN SLIDING EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO
OUR CWA BY DAWN. AS LONG AS WE ARE OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE 18Z NAM AND A RUN OR TWO OF THE HRRR ARE NOW HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET AROUND HIGHWAY 281 OR A LITTLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
281. IF THESE STORMS FORM THEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LOW END SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND EVENT. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RATHER LOW TODAY DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
ONLY AROUND 30 KTS...WHICH IS WEAK TO MODEST AND CERTAINLY NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...GIVEN A FAIRLY
SIMILAR MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO LAST NIGHT BEING LOCATED OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH JUST A BIT LESS LIFT OUR PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL REALLY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN...BUT JUST LIKELY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE OTHER NIGHT. THE GROUND IS VERY SATURATED ACROSS
PRETTY MUCH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT
IN RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. AM MOST CONCERNED FOR THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z NAM.
OVERALL...THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN IS LOWER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE AREA WILL BE LESS AND IT IS HARD TO
PIN POINT EXACTLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MORE BROAD FAVORABLE ZONE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE CHANCES OF STORMS FRIDAY AND THEN CHANCES
OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AND TIMING OF MAJOR
FEATURES AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN GENERAL THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FORECAST TO MORPH FROM A CUTOFF LOW PATTERN BACK TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...SO OUT OF A HEAVY RAIN PATTERN AND BACK INTO A SEVERE WEATHER
TYPE REGIME.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAD BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND LEAVE DRY
WEATHER BEHIND. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
STORMS...BUT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING THE FIRST DRY AND
WARM DAY IN QUITE A WHILE. LOW CHANCES OF STORMS ARE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF STORMS FROM MID DAY SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING
IS MORE IMPRESSIVE. A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE THE TIMING AN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR ARE MORE COMMON FOR MAY THAN AUGUST. SO
THERE IS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. AS WITH ANY FORECAST OF CONVECTION SO MANY DAYS OUT THE
MODELS WILL LIKELY CHANGE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

AS FOR THE WORK WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL...MUCH
DRIER THAN THIS LAST WEEK...BUT HARD TO RULE OUT A HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
STILL WAFFLING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES SO WILL LEAVE
DRY OR LOW PROBABILITIES UNTIL OUR CONFIDENCE RISES MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THIS IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD WITH CEILINGS BOUNCING AROUND
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE COME
DOWN SOME WITH STORMS BEING LESS WIDESPREAD THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
WILL SEE A SFC TROUGH AXIS TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD BE RATHER
VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 282052
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
352 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN
CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND OVERALL LESS HEAVY THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS VERY SLOWLY BEEN SLIDING EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO
OUR CWA BY DAWN. AS LONG AS WE ARE OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE 18Z NAM AND A RUN OR TWO OF THE HRRR ARE NOW HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET AROUND HIGHWAY 281 OR A LITTLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
281. IF THESE STORMS FORM THEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LOW END SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND EVENT. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RATHER LOW TODAY DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
ONLY AROUND 30 KTS...WHICH IS WEAK TO MODEST AND CERTAINLY NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...GIVEN A FAIRLY
SIMILAR MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO LAST NIGHT BEING LOCATED OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH JUST A BIT LESS LIFT OUR PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL REALLY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN...BUT JUST LIKELY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE OTHER NIGHT. THE GROUND IS VERY SATURATED ACROSS
PRETTY MUCH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT
IN RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. AM MOST CONCERNED FOR THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z NAM.
OVERALL...THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN IS LOWER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE AREA WILL BE LESS AND IT IS HARD TO
PIN POINT EXACTLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MORE BROAD FAVORABLE ZONE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE CHANCES OF STORMS FRIDAY AND THEN CHANCES
OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AND TIMING OF MAJOR
FEATURES AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN GENERAL THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FORECAST TO MORPH FROM A CUTOFF LOW PATTERN BACK TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...SO OUT OF A HEAVY RAIN PATTERN AND BACK INTO A SEVERE WEATHER
TYPE REGIME.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAD BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND LEAVE DRY
WEATHER BEHIND. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
STORMS...BUT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING THE FIRST DRY AND
WARM DAY IN QUITE A WHILE. LOW CHANCES OF STORMS ARE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF STORMS FROM MID DAY SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING
IS MORE IMPRESSIVE. A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE THE TIMING AN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR ARE MORE COMMON FOR MAY THAN AUGUST. SO
THERE IS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. AS WITH ANY FORECAST OF CONVECTION SO MANY DAYS OUT THE
MODELS WILL LIKELY CHANGE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

AS FOR THE WORK WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL...MUCH
DRIER THAN THIS LAST WEEK...BUT HARD TO RULE OUT A HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
STILL WAFFLING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES SO WILL LEAVE
DRY OR LOW PROBABILITIES UNTIL OUR CONFIDENCE RISES MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THIS IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD WITH CEILINGS BOUNCING AROUND
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE COME
DOWN SOME WITH STORMS BEING LESS WIDESPREAD THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
WILL SEE A SFC TROUGH AXIS TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD BE RATHER
VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 282052
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
352 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN
CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND OVERALL LESS HEAVY THAN WHAT WE SAW LAST
NIGHT. THE PRIMARY TRIGGERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS VERY SLOWLY BEEN SLIDING EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO
OUR CWA BY DAWN. AS LONG AS WE ARE OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS
WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE 18Z NAM AND A RUN OR TWO OF THE HRRR ARE NOW HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET AROUND HIGHWAY 281 OR A LITTLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
281. IF THESE STORMS FORM THEY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LOW END SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND EVENT. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RATHER LOW TODAY DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
ONLY AROUND 30 KTS...WHICH IS WEAK TO MODEST AND CERTAINLY NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...GIVEN A FAIRLY
SIMILAR MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO LAST NIGHT BEING LOCATED OUT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH JUST A BIT LESS LIFT OUR PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL REALLY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN...BUT JUST LIKELY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE OTHER NIGHT. THE GROUND IS VERY SATURATED ACROSS
PRETTY MUCH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT
IN RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. AM MOST CONCERNED FOR THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 BASED ON THE LATEST 18Z NAM.
OVERALL...THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN IS LOWER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE AREA WILL BE LESS AND IT IS HARD TO
PIN POINT EXACTLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MORE BROAD FAVORABLE ZONE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE CHANCES OF STORMS FRIDAY AND THEN CHANCES
OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AND TIMING OF MAJOR
FEATURES AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN GENERAL THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FORECAST TO MORPH FROM A CUTOFF LOW PATTERN BACK TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW...SO OUT OF A HEAVY RAIN PATTERN AND BACK INTO A SEVERE WEATHER
TYPE REGIME.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAD BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND LEAVE DRY
WEATHER BEHIND. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
STORMS...BUT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING THE FIRST DRY AND
WARM DAY IN QUITE A WHILE. LOW CHANCES OF STORMS ARE BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF STORMS FROM MID DAY SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING
IS MORE IMPRESSIVE. A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE THE TIMING AN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR ARE MORE COMMON FOR MAY THAN AUGUST. SO
THERE IS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. AS WITH ANY FORECAST OF CONVECTION SO MANY DAYS OUT THE
MODELS WILL LIKELY CHANGE...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.

AS FOR THE WORK WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL...MUCH
DRIER THAN THIS LAST WEEK...BUT HARD TO RULE OUT A HIT AND MISS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
STILL WAFFLING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES SO WILL LEAVE
DRY OR LOW PROBABILITIES UNTIL OUR CONFIDENCE RISES MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THIS IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD WITH CEILINGS BOUNCING AROUND
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE COME
DOWN SOME WITH STORMS BEING LESS WIDESPREAD THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
WILL SEE A SFC TROUGH AXIS TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD BE RATHER
VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282034
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTS TO SPIN OVER ERN CO.
THIS WILL CONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ACRS NEB/IA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WEAK SFC LO OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO ERN
NEB BY FRI. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS REMAINS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDCS THAT INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDC THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS 700-300 MB DPVA INCREASES ACRS THE CWA. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT
STILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE SEE A LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
CONTD FORCING AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND
WITH SOME SFC HEATING IN THE MRNG WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE
NRN AND ERN 2/3 OF THE FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEAR THE
SFC BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK EWD BY FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM WEST TO E BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON SAT
AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A
STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS NEB
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR SVR WX IN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT ONCE THE CDFNT
PASSES THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SO HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP OF -SHRA WITH AMENDMENTS NEEDED ONCE
THUNDER LOOKS IMMINENT. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 282003
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE AS OF 19Z WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTRAL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TONIGHT. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WOULD EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...A CU
FIELD HAD DEVELOPED IN A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SANDHILLS ZONE AS OF 19Z AS SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTE TO THE BUILD UP OF
SFC INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY AS THE MAIN
SURGE OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOSTLY PUSHED EAST OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONTINUED DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 10K FEET AND PWATS ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FASTER AS
MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POPS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH GUIDANCE. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO BL HEATING AND CAA ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE MID
TERM AND THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS JUST A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH DISTURBANCES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ECMWF HOLDS
A MUCH STRONGER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHEREAS GFS WEAKENS
THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS ALLOWING A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE EC KEEPS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE AREA
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COOL FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING MAY BE A BIT FAST AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. ONLY PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. BETTER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE RETAINED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE CUT BACK QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS AND
IS MAINLY FOR TIMING QUESTIONS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS COOL AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT LINGERS. WARM FRONT LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LOW CIGS AND SCATTERED TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN
AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF FOR PERIODS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME MOST ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAY PUSH VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE. VFR
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KLBF 282003
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE AS OF 19Z WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTRAL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TONIGHT. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WOULD EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...A CU
FIELD HAD DEVELOPED IN A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SANDHILLS ZONE AS OF 19Z AS SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTE TO THE BUILD UP OF
SFC INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY AS THE MAIN
SURGE OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOSTLY PUSHED EAST OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONTINUED DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 10K FEET AND PWATS ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FASTER AS
MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POPS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH GUIDANCE. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO BL HEATING AND CAA ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE MID
TERM AND THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS JUST A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH DISTURBANCES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ECMWF HOLDS
A MUCH STRONGER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHEREAS GFS WEAKENS
THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS ALLOWING A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE EC KEEPS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE AREA
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COOL FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING MAY BE A BIT FAST AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. ONLY PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. BETTER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE RETAINED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE CUT BACK QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS AND
IS MAINLY FOR TIMING QUESTIONS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS COOL AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT LINGERS. WARM FRONT LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LOW CIGS AND SCATTERED TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN
AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF FOR PERIODS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME MOST ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAY PUSH VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE. VFR
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KLBF 282003
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE AS OF 19Z WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTRAL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TONIGHT. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WOULD EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...A CU
FIELD HAD DEVELOPED IN A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SANDHILLS ZONE AS OF 19Z AS SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTE TO THE BUILD UP OF
SFC INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY AS THE MAIN
SURGE OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOSTLY PUSHED EAST OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONTINUED DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 10K FEET AND PWATS ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FASTER AS
MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POPS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH GUIDANCE. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO BL HEATING AND CAA ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE MID
TERM AND THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS JUST A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH DISTURBANCES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ECMWF HOLDS
A MUCH STRONGER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHEREAS GFS WEAKENS
THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS ALLOWING A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE EC KEEPS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE AREA
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COOL FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING MAY BE A BIT FAST AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. ONLY PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. BETTER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE RETAINED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE CUT BACK QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS AND
IS MAINLY FOR TIMING QUESTIONS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS COOL AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT LINGERS. WARM FRONT LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LOW CIGS AND SCATTERED TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN
AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF FOR PERIODS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME MOST ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAY PUSH VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE. VFR
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KLBF 282003
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE AS OF 19Z WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE AN ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTRAL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TONIGHT. MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WOULD EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. IN ADDITION...A CU
FIELD HAD DEVELOPED IN A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
SANDHILLS ZONE AS OF 19Z AS SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTE TO THE BUILD UP OF
SFC INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS YESTERDAY AS THE MAIN
SURGE OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOSTLY PUSHED EAST OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
CONTINUED DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 10K FEET AND PWATS ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FASTER AS
MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POPS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH GUIDANCE. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO BL HEATING AND CAA ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE MID
TERM AND THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS JUST A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH DISTURBANCES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ECMWF HOLDS
A MUCH STRONGER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHEREAS GFS WEAKENS
THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS ALLOWING A DEEP BROAD
TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE EC KEEPS MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE AREA
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COOL FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING MAY BE A BIT FAST AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. ONLY PACIFIC MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. BETTER CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE RETAINED MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE CUT BACK QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS AND
IS MAINLY FOR TIMING QUESTIONS. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS COOL AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT LINGERS. WARM FRONT LIFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LOW CIGS AND SCATTERED TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN
AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF FOR PERIODS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME MOST ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAY PUSH VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE. VFR
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KGID 281848
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
148 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS PREVENTING DESTABILIZATION AND MOST
FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR ALL AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

JUST UPDATED TO SLASH POPS WELL DOWN TO ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FRINGES (MAINLY EASTERN MITCHELL AND THAYER COUNTIES) WHERE LIKELY
POPS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES
OF A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF WEAK CONVECTION BISECTING KS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEB. THE BOTTOM LINE: ANY CHANCE OF POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE
TO WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE...AND EVEN THEN MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD START OFF
CONCENTRATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CWA UNDER THE HEART OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA
LATE AFTERNOON- EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UNFORTUNATELY RUNNING LATER THAN USUAL THIS MORNING DUE TO A
CHALLENGING NIGHT OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TIMING...THE POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF 1+ INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THESE
PAST 12 HOURS HAVE PROVEN TO BE THE MAIN SHOW SO FAR THIS WEEK.
THE ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE TRULY FALLEN WELL SHORT OF 1 INCH
OVERNIGHT HAVE MAINLY RESIDED WITHIN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
GREELEY/SHERMAN/VALLEY/ AND ALSO FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS IN/NEAR
MITCHELL COUNTY KANSAS. BY FAR THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF HEAVY...LIKELY
2-4+ INCH RAINFALL OVERNIGHT CONCENTRATED WITHIN A ROUGHLY 20 MILE
WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ROOKS/SOUTHERN PHILLIPS
COUNTY ON ONE END OF THE CWA...THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED
CLOUD-CLAY CENTER-SOUTHERN YORK/NORTHERN FILLMORE COUNTY AREA.
ALTHOUGH GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS OF FLOODING ARE VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS MORNING...POINT RIVER WARNINGS FOR AUTOMATED GAUGES CONTINUE
FOR THE BOW CREEK NORTH OF STOCKTON KS AND FOR THE LITTLE BLUER
RIVER NEAR DEWEESE ON THE NEB SIDE. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
WILL SHED CONSIDERABLY MORE LIGHT ON WHETHER MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-
LYING AREA/STREAM FLOODING MAY BE HAPPENING ACROSS THE AREA THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN FELL ON AREAS THAT HAD NOT OBSERVED NOTABLE AMOUNTS DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...KEPT IT INTACT/UNCHANGED THROUGH
15Z/10AM...AND ALTHOUGH MOST FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE OUT THERE
ARE LIKELY ALREADY ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...WANT TO GIVE DAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS TO DECIDE IF ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER
DAY/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH COULD EASILY DUMP ANOTHER QUICK INCH
OR SO IN SOME PLACES.

TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 10Z/5AM...FORTUNATELY THE BULK
OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEB...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1.6-2.0 INCH RANGE. PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA...THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE
WETNESS IS A SEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT STEADILY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CO/WY BORDER
AREA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A HEALTHY 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET HAVE RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RECENTLY
STEERING THE HEAVIEST RAINS OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA TO THE EAST.

FOR TODAY...AND STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...THE SLOW-MOVING
MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...WITH ITS AXIS
ALIGNED FROM FAR WESTERN KS TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY SUNSET.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
DAY GOES ON. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A ROGUE/SPOTTY SHOWER IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT ANY POINT TODAY...THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION BASED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-
NMM AND 4KM NSSL WRF IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND LIKELY RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THEN...AS LIKELY AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OUT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD FEATURE
AT LEAST A MODEST/SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK 20-25KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND STILL-FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGREE
WITH SPC IN ADVERTISING BASELINE 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON GETTING SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...WHICH GENERALLY
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS POINT DESPITE THE OTHER
LIMITING FACTORS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BIG PICTURE INVOLVES THE CONTINUED
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD
BE RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AT NIGHTS END. AGAIN...ITS
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK
STORM AT ANY POINT TONIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT A GRADUAL WEST-
TO-EAST DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WEAR ON. PER THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
DATA...THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD PROBABLY DRY OUT COMPLETELY
POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST 06Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
KEEPING A BIT GREATER COVERAGE GOING...SO THUS WHY AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH ANY
LIKELY 60+ POPS CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BY 10 PM OR SO.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...ASSUMING THAT TODAY FEATURES MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY DID...MOST AREAS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...AND AGAIN WENT WITH A FAIRLY STANDARD MULTI-
GUIDANCE/MODEL BLEND TO AIM MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
80S...WITH MID 80S MORE COMMON NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHTS LOWS...AIMING FOR LOW-MID 60S MOST
AREAS AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 50S MAINLY FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. I FAVOR
ENSEMBLES FROM SREF FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS LEADS TO A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF MOST MODELS
PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ENSEMBLES LAG THE TROUGH BEHIND A BIT...THEREFORE I AM
KEEPING HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
PARAMETERS REVEAL THAT WE COULD GET SOME STRONG STORMS...AS BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.

TRYING TO PICK A DRY PERIOD IS RATHER DIFFICULT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT SATURDAY DOES LOOK LARGELY DRY DURING THE DAY...AS WE
SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE PRIMARILY FROM SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...BEHIND THE TROUGH GOING THROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HOWEVER...BY VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE POOR SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING OF THAT
NATURE.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTRODUCING A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LOOKING VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SUPPORT EXPECTED. THE HWO IS ALREADY
STRONGLY WORDED AND AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS.

WE COULD GET ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK RATHER SLIM
AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUPPORT IN MID-LEVELS FOR
PARTICULARLY STRONG CONVECTION.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO
PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THIS IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD WITH CEILINGS BOUNCING AROUND
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE COME
DOWN SOME WITH STORMS BEING LESS WIDESPREAD THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
WILL SEE A SFC TROUGH AXIS TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD BE RATHER
VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 281848
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
148 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS PREVENTING DESTABILIZATION AND MOST
FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR ALL AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

JUST UPDATED TO SLASH POPS WELL DOWN TO ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FRINGES (MAINLY EASTERN MITCHELL AND THAYER COUNTIES) WHERE LIKELY
POPS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES
OF A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF WEAK CONVECTION BISECTING KS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEB. THE BOTTOM LINE: ANY CHANCE OF POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE
TO WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE...AND EVEN THEN MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD START OFF
CONCENTRATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CWA UNDER THE HEART OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA
LATE AFTERNOON- EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UNFORTUNATELY RUNNING LATER THAN USUAL THIS MORNING DUE TO A
CHALLENGING NIGHT OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TIMING...THE POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF 1+ INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THESE
PAST 12 HOURS HAVE PROVEN TO BE THE MAIN SHOW SO FAR THIS WEEK.
THE ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE TRULY FALLEN WELL SHORT OF 1 INCH
OVERNIGHT HAVE MAINLY RESIDED WITHIN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
GREELEY/SHERMAN/VALLEY/ AND ALSO FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS IN/NEAR
MITCHELL COUNTY KANSAS. BY FAR THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF HEAVY...LIKELY
2-4+ INCH RAINFALL OVERNIGHT CONCENTRATED WITHIN A ROUGHLY 20 MILE
WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ROOKS/SOUTHERN PHILLIPS
COUNTY ON ONE END OF THE CWA...THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED
CLOUD-CLAY CENTER-SOUTHERN YORK/NORTHERN FILLMORE COUNTY AREA.
ALTHOUGH GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS OF FLOODING ARE VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS MORNING...POINT RIVER WARNINGS FOR AUTOMATED GAUGES CONTINUE
FOR THE BOW CREEK NORTH OF STOCKTON KS AND FOR THE LITTLE BLUER
RIVER NEAR DEWEESE ON THE NEB SIDE. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
WILL SHED CONSIDERABLY MORE LIGHT ON WHETHER MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-
LYING AREA/STREAM FLOODING MAY BE HAPPENING ACROSS THE AREA THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN FELL ON AREAS THAT HAD NOT OBSERVED NOTABLE AMOUNTS DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...KEPT IT INTACT/UNCHANGED THROUGH
15Z/10AM...AND ALTHOUGH MOST FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE OUT THERE
ARE LIKELY ALREADY ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...WANT TO GIVE DAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS TO DECIDE IF ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER
DAY/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH COULD EASILY DUMP ANOTHER QUICK INCH
OR SO IN SOME PLACES.

TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 10Z/5AM...FORTUNATELY THE BULK
OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEB...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1.6-2.0 INCH RANGE. PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA...THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE
WETNESS IS A SEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT STEADILY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CO/WY BORDER
AREA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A HEALTHY 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET HAVE RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RECENTLY
STEERING THE HEAVIEST RAINS OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA TO THE EAST.

FOR TODAY...AND STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...THE SLOW-MOVING
MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...WITH ITS AXIS
ALIGNED FROM FAR WESTERN KS TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY SUNSET.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
DAY GOES ON. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A ROGUE/SPOTTY SHOWER IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT ANY POINT TODAY...THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION BASED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-
NMM AND 4KM NSSL WRF IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND LIKELY RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THEN...AS LIKELY AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OUT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD FEATURE
AT LEAST A MODEST/SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK 20-25KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND STILL-FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGREE
WITH SPC IN ADVERTISING BASELINE 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON GETTING SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...WHICH GENERALLY
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS POINT DESPITE THE OTHER
LIMITING FACTORS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BIG PICTURE INVOLVES THE CONTINUED
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD
BE RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AT NIGHTS END. AGAIN...ITS
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK
STORM AT ANY POINT TONIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT A GRADUAL WEST-
TO-EAST DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WEAR ON. PER THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
DATA...THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD PROBABLY DRY OUT COMPLETELY
POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST 06Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
KEEPING A BIT GREATER COVERAGE GOING...SO THUS WHY AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH ANY
LIKELY 60+ POPS CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BY 10 PM OR SO.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...ASSUMING THAT TODAY FEATURES MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY DID...MOST AREAS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...AND AGAIN WENT WITH A FAIRLY STANDARD MULTI-
GUIDANCE/MODEL BLEND TO AIM MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
80S...WITH MID 80S MORE COMMON NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHTS LOWS...AIMING FOR LOW-MID 60S MOST
AREAS AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 50S MAINLY FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. I FAVOR
ENSEMBLES FROM SREF FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS LEADS TO A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF MOST MODELS
PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ENSEMBLES LAG THE TROUGH BEHIND A BIT...THEREFORE I AM
KEEPING HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
PARAMETERS REVEAL THAT WE COULD GET SOME STRONG STORMS...AS BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.

TRYING TO PICK A DRY PERIOD IS RATHER DIFFICULT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT SATURDAY DOES LOOK LARGELY DRY DURING THE DAY...AS WE
SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE PRIMARILY FROM SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...BEHIND THE TROUGH GOING THROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HOWEVER...BY VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE POOR SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING OF THAT
NATURE.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTRODUCING A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LOOKING VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SUPPORT EXPECTED. THE HWO IS ALREADY
STRONGLY WORDED AND AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS.

WE COULD GET ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK RATHER SLIM
AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUPPORT IN MID-LEVELS FOR
PARTICULARLY STRONG CONVECTION.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO
PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THIS IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD WITH CEILINGS BOUNCING AROUND
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE COME
DOWN SOME WITH STORMS BEING LESS WIDESPREAD THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
WILL SEE A SFC TROUGH AXIS TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD BE RATHER
VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 281848
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
148 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS PREVENTING DESTABILIZATION AND MOST
FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR ALL AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

JUST UPDATED TO SLASH POPS WELL DOWN TO ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FRINGES (MAINLY EASTERN MITCHELL AND THAYER COUNTIES) WHERE LIKELY
POPS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES
OF A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF WEAK CONVECTION BISECTING KS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEB. THE BOTTOM LINE: ANY CHANCE OF POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE
TO WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE...AND EVEN THEN MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD START OFF
CONCENTRATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CWA UNDER THE HEART OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA
LATE AFTERNOON- EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UNFORTUNATELY RUNNING LATER THAN USUAL THIS MORNING DUE TO A
CHALLENGING NIGHT OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TIMING...THE POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF 1+ INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THESE
PAST 12 HOURS HAVE PROVEN TO BE THE MAIN SHOW SO FAR THIS WEEK.
THE ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE TRULY FALLEN WELL SHORT OF 1 INCH
OVERNIGHT HAVE MAINLY RESIDED WITHIN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
GREELEY/SHERMAN/VALLEY/ AND ALSO FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS IN/NEAR
MITCHELL COUNTY KANSAS. BY FAR THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF HEAVY...LIKELY
2-4+ INCH RAINFALL OVERNIGHT CONCENTRATED WITHIN A ROUGHLY 20 MILE
WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ROOKS/SOUTHERN PHILLIPS
COUNTY ON ONE END OF THE CWA...THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED
CLOUD-CLAY CENTER-SOUTHERN YORK/NORTHERN FILLMORE COUNTY AREA.
ALTHOUGH GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS OF FLOODING ARE VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS MORNING...POINT RIVER WARNINGS FOR AUTOMATED GAUGES CONTINUE
FOR THE BOW CREEK NORTH OF STOCKTON KS AND FOR THE LITTLE BLUER
RIVER NEAR DEWEESE ON THE NEB SIDE. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
WILL SHED CONSIDERABLY MORE LIGHT ON WHETHER MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-
LYING AREA/STREAM FLOODING MAY BE HAPPENING ACROSS THE AREA THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN FELL ON AREAS THAT HAD NOT OBSERVED NOTABLE AMOUNTS DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...KEPT IT INTACT/UNCHANGED THROUGH
15Z/10AM...AND ALTHOUGH MOST FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE OUT THERE
ARE LIKELY ALREADY ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...WANT TO GIVE DAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS TO DECIDE IF ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER
DAY/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH COULD EASILY DUMP ANOTHER QUICK INCH
OR SO IN SOME PLACES.

TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 10Z/5AM...FORTUNATELY THE BULK
OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEB...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1.6-2.0 INCH RANGE. PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA...THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE
WETNESS IS A SEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT STEADILY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CO/WY BORDER
AREA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A HEALTHY 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET HAVE RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RECENTLY
STEERING THE HEAVIEST RAINS OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA TO THE EAST.

FOR TODAY...AND STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...THE SLOW-MOVING
MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...WITH ITS AXIS
ALIGNED FROM FAR WESTERN KS TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY SUNSET.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
DAY GOES ON. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A ROGUE/SPOTTY SHOWER IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT ANY POINT TODAY...THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION BASED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-
NMM AND 4KM NSSL WRF IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND LIKELY RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THEN...AS LIKELY AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OUT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD FEATURE
AT LEAST A MODEST/SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK 20-25KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND STILL-FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGREE
WITH SPC IN ADVERTISING BASELINE 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON GETTING SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...WHICH GENERALLY
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS POINT DESPITE THE OTHER
LIMITING FACTORS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BIG PICTURE INVOLVES THE CONTINUED
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD
BE RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AT NIGHTS END. AGAIN...ITS
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK
STORM AT ANY POINT TONIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT A GRADUAL WEST-
TO-EAST DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WEAR ON. PER THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
DATA...THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD PROBABLY DRY OUT COMPLETELY
POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST 06Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
KEEPING A BIT GREATER COVERAGE GOING...SO THUS WHY AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH ANY
LIKELY 60+ POPS CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BY 10 PM OR SO.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...ASSUMING THAT TODAY FEATURES MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY DID...MOST AREAS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...AND AGAIN WENT WITH A FAIRLY STANDARD MULTI-
GUIDANCE/MODEL BLEND TO AIM MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
80S...WITH MID 80S MORE COMMON NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHTS LOWS...AIMING FOR LOW-MID 60S MOST
AREAS AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 50S MAINLY FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. I FAVOR
ENSEMBLES FROM SREF FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS LEADS TO A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF MOST MODELS
PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ENSEMBLES LAG THE TROUGH BEHIND A BIT...THEREFORE I AM
KEEPING HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
PARAMETERS REVEAL THAT WE COULD GET SOME STRONG STORMS...AS BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.

TRYING TO PICK A DRY PERIOD IS RATHER DIFFICULT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT SATURDAY DOES LOOK LARGELY DRY DURING THE DAY...AS WE
SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE PRIMARILY FROM SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...BEHIND THE TROUGH GOING THROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HOWEVER...BY VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE POOR SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING OF THAT
NATURE.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTRODUCING A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LOOKING VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SUPPORT EXPECTED. THE HWO IS ALREADY
STRONGLY WORDED AND AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS.

WE COULD GET ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK RATHER SLIM
AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUPPORT IN MID-LEVELS FOR
PARTICULARLY STRONG CONVECTION.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO
PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THIS IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD WITH CEILINGS BOUNCING AROUND
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE COME
DOWN SOME WITH STORMS BEING LESS WIDESPREAD THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
WILL SEE A SFC TROUGH AXIS TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD BE RATHER
VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 281848
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
148 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS PREVENTING DESTABILIZATION AND MOST
FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR ALL AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

JUST UPDATED TO SLASH POPS WELL DOWN TO ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FRINGES (MAINLY EASTERN MITCHELL AND THAYER COUNTIES) WHERE LIKELY
POPS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES
OF A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF WEAK CONVECTION BISECTING KS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEB. THE BOTTOM LINE: ANY CHANCE OF POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE
TO WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE...AND EVEN THEN MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD START OFF
CONCENTRATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CWA UNDER THE HEART OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA
LATE AFTERNOON- EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UNFORTUNATELY RUNNING LATER THAN USUAL THIS MORNING DUE TO A
CHALLENGING NIGHT OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TIMING...THE POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF 1+ INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THESE
PAST 12 HOURS HAVE PROVEN TO BE THE MAIN SHOW SO FAR THIS WEEK.
THE ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE TRULY FALLEN WELL SHORT OF 1 INCH
OVERNIGHT HAVE MAINLY RESIDED WITHIN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
GREELEY/SHERMAN/VALLEY/ AND ALSO FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS IN/NEAR
MITCHELL COUNTY KANSAS. BY FAR THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF HEAVY...LIKELY
2-4+ INCH RAINFALL OVERNIGHT CONCENTRATED WITHIN A ROUGHLY 20 MILE
WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ROOKS/SOUTHERN PHILLIPS
COUNTY ON ONE END OF THE CWA...THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED
CLOUD-CLAY CENTER-SOUTHERN YORK/NORTHERN FILLMORE COUNTY AREA.
ALTHOUGH GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS OF FLOODING ARE VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS MORNING...POINT RIVER WARNINGS FOR AUTOMATED GAUGES CONTINUE
FOR THE BOW CREEK NORTH OF STOCKTON KS AND FOR THE LITTLE BLUER
RIVER NEAR DEWEESE ON THE NEB SIDE. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
WILL SHED CONSIDERABLY MORE LIGHT ON WHETHER MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-
LYING AREA/STREAM FLOODING MAY BE HAPPENING ACROSS THE AREA THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN FELL ON AREAS THAT HAD NOT OBSERVED NOTABLE AMOUNTS DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...KEPT IT INTACT/UNCHANGED THROUGH
15Z/10AM...AND ALTHOUGH MOST FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE OUT THERE
ARE LIKELY ALREADY ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...WANT TO GIVE DAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS TO DECIDE IF ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER
DAY/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH COULD EASILY DUMP ANOTHER QUICK INCH
OR SO IN SOME PLACES.

TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 10Z/5AM...FORTUNATELY THE BULK
OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEB...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1.6-2.0 INCH RANGE. PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA...THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE
WETNESS IS A SEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT STEADILY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CO/WY BORDER
AREA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A HEALTHY 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET HAVE RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RECENTLY
STEERING THE HEAVIEST RAINS OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA TO THE EAST.

FOR TODAY...AND STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...THE SLOW-MOVING
MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...WITH ITS AXIS
ALIGNED FROM FAR WESTERN KS TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY SUNSET.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
DAY GOES ON. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A ROGUE/SPOTTY SHOWER IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT ANY POINT TODAY...THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION BASED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-
NMM AND 4KM NSSL WRF IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND LIKELY RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THEN...AS LIKELY AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OUT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD FEATURE
AT LEAST A MODEST/SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK 20-25KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND STILL-FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGREE
WITH SPC IN ADVERTISING BASELINE 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON GETTING SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...WHICH GENERALLY
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS POINT DESPITE THE OTHER
LIMITING FACTORS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BIG PICTURE INVOLVES THE CONTINUED
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD
BE RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AT NIGHTS END. AGAIN...ITS
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK
STORM AT ANY POINT TONIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT A GRADUAL WEST-
TO-EAST DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WEAR ON. PER THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
DATA...THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD PROBABLY DRY OUT COMPLETELY
POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST 06Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
KEEPING A BIT GREATER COVERAGE GOING...SO THUS WHY AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH ANY
LIKELY 60+ POPS CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BY 10 PM OR SO.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...ASSUMING THAT TODAY FEATURES MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY DID...MOST AREAS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...AND AGAIN WENT WITH A FAIRLY STANDARD MULTI-
GUIDANCE/MODEL BLEND TO AIM MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
80S...WITH MID 80S MORE COMMON NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHTS LOWS...AIMING FOR LOW-MID 60S MOST
AREAS AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 50S MAINLY FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. I FAVOR
ENSEMBLES FROM SREF FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS LEADS TO A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF MOST MODELS
PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ENSEMBLES LAG THE TROUGH BEHIND A BIT...THEREFORE I AM
KEEPING HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
PARAMETERS REVEAL THAT WE COULD GET SOME STRONG STORMS...AS BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.

TRYING TO PICK A DRY PERIOD IS RATHER DIFFICULT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT SATURDAY DOES LOOK LARGELY DRY DURING THE DAY...AS WE
SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE PRIMARILY FROM SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...BEHIND THE TROUGH GOING THROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HOWEVER...BY VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE POOR SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING OF THAT
NATURE.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTRODUCING A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LOOKING VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SUPPORT EXPECTED. THE HWO IS ALREADY
STRONGLY WORDED AND AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS.

WE COULD GET ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK RATHER SLIM
AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUPPORT IN MID-LEVELS FOR
PARTICULARLY STRONG CONVECTION.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO
PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THIS IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD WITH CEILINGS BOUNCING AROUND
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE COME
DOWN SOME WITH STORMS BEING LESS WIDESPREAD THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
WILL SEE A SFC TROUGH AXIS TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD BE RATHER
VARIABLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 281735
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A NICE CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO NEW
MEXICO. WV IMAGERY AS OF 07Z TONIGHT HAS THIS FEATURE SOUTHWEST
OF LARAMIE WYOMING. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER SWRN SD AS
WELL. OTHER H5 FEATURES NOTED OVER NOAM...INCLUDED STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SRN CA COAST AS WELL AS A DECENT NRN STREAM EXTENDING ACROSS
SRN CANADA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 07Z HAS A NICE PLUME OF SWRLY
MONSOON MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM SERN NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. FURTHER WEST...DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND AT PRESENT IS APPROACHING FAR SWRN NEBRASKA.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS EVENING. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE HEAVIEST OVER
PERKINS...KEITH AND ARTHUR COUNTIES WERE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RADAR
ESTIMATED RAINFALL OCCURRED. ATTM...THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVER
SWRN ARTHUR AND NORTHWESTERN KEITH COUNTY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF FAR WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN PERKINS COUNTY. A FLOOD ADVISORY
WAS IN EFFECT FOR PERKINS AND KEITH COUNTY AND WAS EXPIRED AT 330
AM CDT. AS OF 3 AM CDT...UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 60 AT OGALLALA TO 69 AT BROKEN BOW AND ONEILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RAIN
CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
TODAY IN THE EASTERN CWA. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WV IMAGERY ATTM
HAS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SWRN...THEN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
DRYING...ABUNDANT SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE SWRN US WITH PWATS OF
GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. WEST OF THIS
ROUTE...PWATS DROP TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES DUE TO THE MID LEVEL DRYING
PER WV IMAGERY. THIS WILL DECREASE PCPN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN
THE WESTERN CWA. DID NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE PCPN HOWEVER AS NO CAP
IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WE DO
SEE THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILL WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
INSTABILITY SHRAS BY LATE MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE EXISTS...AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. IN ADDITION TO
PCPN CHANCES IN THE EAST...THE THREAT FOR SHRAS WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS INTO
WRN NEBRASKA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A NICE AREA OF
DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON THE 310K AND
315K THETA SFC. THIS AREA WILL TRANSITION EAST THIS EVENING WITH
DECENT SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND THIS BAND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BY
12Z FRIDAY...MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A SMALL THREAT FOR PCPN
CONTINUES. AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ATTM...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THE
EXITING COLD POOL THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE SW
CONUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS FOCUSED. WITH THIS IN MIND
AND DUE TO A LACK OF PCPN IN MY EASTERN ZONES PER RADAR ESTIMATES
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IE...CUSTER...MOST OF
FRONTIER...WHEELER AND GARFIELD COUNTIES...WILL FORGO ANY FLOOD
WATCH FOR TODAY. TWO LOCATIONS THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE FLOODING ARE EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF EASTERN HOLT COUNTY WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALL TUESDAY NIGHT.
ATTM...THINKING HERE IS THAT SHORT TERM RAINFALL INTENSITIES IN
THESE AREAS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO FACILITATE ANY FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER WE MAY NEED SOME SORT OF SMALL STREAM ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS AS THEY ARE FULL OF HILLY TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THESE AREAS INTO THE MORNING HRS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE PUSHED
INTO CENTRAL KS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY FOR THE CWA...WITH
ONLY THE NAM STILL SHOWING LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. GENERAL THOUGH IS FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...HOWEVER WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. BY MIDDAY MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL AID IN WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS AND WILL KEEP CWA DRY. A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE DID WARM THINGS UP CLOSE TO
90...HOWEVER RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD DAMPEN THE QUICK RESPONSE OF
TEMPS...EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS KEPT HIGHS IN THE
80S. WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD HAVE SOME PACIFIC MONSOON MOISTURE TO
TAP. POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. EARLY ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACK IS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...THEN SHIFTS NORTHWARD. TIMING OF DISTURBANCES DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT AND WILL KEEP POPS LOW. HIGHS GENERALLY SEASONAL IN
THE 80S WHILE MILD LOWS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LOW CIGS AND SCATTERED TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN
AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF FOR PERIODS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME MOST ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAY PUSH VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE. VFR
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN





000
FXUS63 KLBF 281735
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A NICE CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO NEW
MEXICO. WV IMAGERY AS OF 07Z TONIGHT HAS THIS FEATURE SOUTHWEST
OF LARAMIE WYOMING. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER SWRN SD AS
WELL. OTHER H5 FEATURES NOTED OVER NOAM...INCLUDED STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SRN CA COAST AS WELL AS A DECENT NRN STREAM EXTENDING ACROSS
SRN CANADA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 07Z HAS A NICE PLUME OF SWRLY
MONSOON MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM SERN NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. FURTHER WEST...DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND AT PRESENT IS APPROACHING FAR SWRN NEBRASKA.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS EVENING. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE HEAVIEST OVER
PERKINS...KEITH AND ARTHUR COUNTIES WERE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RADAR
ESTIMATED RAINFALL OCCURRED. ATTM...THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVER
SWRN ARTHUR AND NORTHWESTERN KEITH COUNTY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF FAR WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN PERKINS COUNTY. A FLOOD ADVISORY
WAS IN EFFECT FOR PERKINS AND KEITH COUNTY AND WAS EXPIRED AT 330
AM CDT. AS OF 3 AM CDT...UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 60 AT OGALLALA TO 69 AT BROKEN BOW AND ONEILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RAIN
CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
TODAY IN THE EASTERN CWA. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WV IMAGERY ATTM
HAS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SWRN...THEN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
DRYING...ABUNDANT SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE SWRN US WITH PWATS OF
GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. WEST OF THIS
ROUTE...PWATS DROP TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES DUE TO THE MID LEVEL DRYING
PER WV IMAGERY. THIS WILL DECREASE PCPN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN
THE WESTERN CWA. DID NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE PCPN HOWEVER AS NO CAP
IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WE DO
SEE THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILL WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
INSTABILITY SHRAS BY LATE MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE EXISTS...AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. IN ADDITION TO
PCPN CHANCES IN THE EAST...THE THREAT FOR SHRAS WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS INTO
WRN NEBRASKA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A NICE AREA OF
DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON THE 310K AND
315K THETA SFC. THIS AREA WILL TRANSITION EAST THIS EVENING WITH
DECENT SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND THIS BAND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BY
12Z FRIDAY...MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A SMALL THREAT FOR PCPN
CONTINUES. AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ATTM...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THE
EXITING COLD POOL THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE SW
CONUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS FOCUSED. WITH THIS IN MIND
AND DUE TO A LACK OF PCPN IN MY EASTERN ZONES PER RADAR ESTIMATES
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IE...CUSTER...MOST OF
FRONTIER...WHEELER AND GARFIELD COUNTIES...WILL FORGO ANY FLOOD
WATCH FOR TODAY. TWO LOCATIONS THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE FLOODING ARE EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF EASTERN HOLT COUNTY WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALL TUESDAY NIGHT.
ATTM...THINKING HERE IS THAT SHORT TERM RAINFALL INTENSITIES IN
THESE AREAS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO FACILITATE ANY FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER WE MAY NEED SOME SORT OF SMALL STREAM ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS AS THEY ARE FULL OF HILLY TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THESE AREAS INTO THE MORNING HRS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE PUSHED
INTO CENTRAL KS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY FOR THE CWA...WITH
ONLY THE NAM STILL SHOWING LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. GENERAL THOUGH IS FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...HOWEVER WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. BY MIDDAY MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL AID IN WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS AND WILL KEEP CWA DRY. A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE DID WARM THINGS UP CLOSE TO
90...HOWEVER RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD DAMPEN THE QUICK RESPONSE OF
TEMPS...EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS KEPT HIGHS IN THE
80S. WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD HAVE SOME PACIFIC MONSOON MOISTURE TO
TAP. POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. EARLY ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACK IS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...THEN SHIFTS NORTHWARD. TIMING OF DISTURBANCES DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT AND WILL KEEP POPS LOW. HIGHS GENERALLY SEASONAL IN
THE 80S WHILE MILD LOWS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

LOW CIGS AND SCATTERED TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN
AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF FOR PERIODS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME MOST ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MAY PUSH VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE. VFR
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN






000
FXUS63 KOAX 281735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWPOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SO HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP OF -SHRA WITH AMENDMENTS NEEDED ONCE
THUNDER LOOKS IMMINENT. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWPOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SO HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP OF -SHRA WITH AMENDMENTS NEEDED ONCE
THUNDER LOOKS IMMINENT. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWPOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SO HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP OF -SHRA WITH AMENDMENTS NEEDED ONCE
THUNDER LOOKS IMMINENT. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWPOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
SO HAVE PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP OF -SHRA WITH AMENDMENTS NEEDED ONCE
THUNDER LOOKS IMMINENT. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KGID 281228
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
728 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

JUST UPDATED TO SLASH POPS WELL DOWN TO ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FRINGES (MAINLY EASTERN MITCHELL AND THAYER COUNTIES) WHERE LIKELY
POPS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES
OF A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF WEAK CONVECTION BISECTING KS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEB. THE BOTTOM LINE: ANY CHANCE OF POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE
TO WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE...AND EVEN THEN MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD START OFF
CONCENTRATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CWA UNDER THE HEART OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA
LATE AFTERNOON- EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UNFORTUNATELY RUNNING LATER THAN USUAL THIS MORNING DUE TO A
CHALLENGING NIGHT OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TIMING...THE POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF 1+ INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THESE
PAST 12 HOURS HAVE PROVEN TO BE THE MAIN SHOW SO FAR THIS WEEK.
THE ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE TRULY FALLEN WELL SHORT OF 1 INCH
OVERNIGHT HAVE MAINLY RESIDED WITHIN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
GREELEY/SHERMAN/VALLEY/ AND ALSO FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS IN/NEAR
MITCHELL COUNTY KANSAS. BY FAR THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF HEAVY...LIKELY
2-4+ INCH RAINFALL OVERNIGHT CONCENTRATED WITHIN A ROUGHLY 20 MILE
WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ROOKS/SOUTHERN PHILLIPS
COUNTY ON ONE END OF THE CWA...THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED
CLOUD-CLAY CENTER-SOUTHERN YORK/NORTHERN FILLMORE COUNTY AREA.
ALTHOUGH GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS OF FLOODING ARE VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS MORNING...POINT RIVER WARNINGS FOR AUTOMATED GAUGES CONTINUE
FOR THE BOW CREEK NORTH OF STOCKTON KS AND FOR THE LITTLE BLUER
RIVER NEAR DEWEESE ON THE NEB SIDE. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
WILL SHED CONSIDERABLY MORE LIGHT ON WHETHER MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-
LYING AREA/STREAM FLOODING MAY BE HAPPENING ACROSS THE AREA THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN FELL ON AREAS THAT HAD NOT OBSERVED NOTABLE AMOUNTS DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...KEPT IT INTACT/UNCHANGED THROUGH
15Z/10AM...AND ALTHOUGH MOST FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE OUT THERE
ARE LIKELY ALREADY ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...WANT TO GIVE DAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS TO DECIDE IF ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER
DAY/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH COULD EASILY DUMP ANOTHER QUICK INCH
OR SO IN SOME PLACES.

TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 10Z/5AM...FORTUNATELY THE BULK
OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEB...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1.6-2.0 INCH RANGE. PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA...THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE
WETNESS IS A SEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT STEADILY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CO/WY BORDER
AREA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A HEALTHY 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET HAVE RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RECENTLY
STEERING THE HEAVIEST RAINS OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA TO THE EAST.

FOR TODAY...AND STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...THE SLOW-MOVING
MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...WITH ITS AXIS
ALIGNED FROM FAR WESTERN KS TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY SUNSET.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
DAY GOES ON. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A ROGUE/SPOTTY SHOWER IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT ANY POINT TODAY...THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION BASED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-
NMM AND 4KM NSSL WRF IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND LIKELY RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THEN...AS LIKELY AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OUT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD FEATURE
AT LEAST A MODEST/SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK 20-25KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND STILL-FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGREE
WITH SPC IN ADVERTISING BASELINE 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON GETTING SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...WHICH GENERALLY
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS POINT DESPITE THE OTHER
LIMITING FACTORS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BIG PICTURE INVOLVES THE CONTINUED
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD
BE RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AT NIGHTS END. AGAIN...ITS
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK
STORM AT ANY POINT TONIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT A GRADUAL WEST-
TO-EAST DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WEAR ON. PER THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
DATA...THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD PROBABLY DRY OUT COMPLETELY
POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST 06Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
KEEPING A BIT GREATER COVERAGE GOING...SO THUS WHY AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH ANY
LIKELY 60+ POPS CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BY 10 PM OR SO.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...ASSUMING THAT TODAY FEATURES MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY DID...MOST AREAS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...AND AGAIN WENT WITH A FAIRLY STANDARD MULTI-
GUIDANCE/MODEL BLEND TO AIM MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
80S...WITH MID 80S MORE COMMON NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHTS LOWS...AIMING FOR LOW-MID 60S MOST
AREAS AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 50S MAINLY FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. I FAVOR
ENSEMBLES FROM SREF FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS LEADS TO A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF MOST MODELS
PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ENSEMBLES LAG THE TROUGH BEHIND A BIT...THEREFORE I AM
KEEPING HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
PARAMETERS REVEAL THAT WE COULD GET SOME STRONG STORMS...AS BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.

TRYING TO PICK A DRY PERIOD IS RATHER DIFFICULT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT SATURDAY DOES LOOK LARGELY DRY DURING THE DAY...AS WE
SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE PRIMARILY FROM SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...BEHIND THE TROUGH GOING THROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HOWEVER...BY VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE POOR SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING OF THAT
NATURE.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTRODUCING A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LOOKING VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SUPPORT EXPECTED. THE HWO IS ALREADY
STRONGLY WORDED AND AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS.

WE COULD GET ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK RATHER SLIM
AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUPPORT IN MID-LEVELS FOR
PARTICULARLY STRONG CONVECTION.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO
PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WITH CEILING...ESPECIALLY AT KGRI. THE RAIN
IS GENERALLY ON ITS WAY OUT AND SO ARE THE BROKEN CEILINGS AT 300
FT. THERE COULD BE SOME STRAY CEILINGS AT 300 FT LEFT BEHIND FROM
TIME TO TIME...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS LESS SKY COVER AND WE ARE
ENTERING A LULL IN CONVECTION UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP....WITH SOME POSSIBLY BEING SEVERE.
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...SO
VCTS IS USED FOR NOW...AND PERHAPS SOMETHING MORE NARROWED DOWN AS
TIME DRAWS NEARER TO THE PRODUCTION OF CONVECTION. WIND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-073>077-082>086.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 281228
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
728 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

JUST UPDATED TO SLASH POPS WELL DOWN TO ONLY 20 PERCENT SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FRINGES (MAINLY EASTERN MITCHELL AND THAYER COUNTIES) WHERE LIKELY
POPS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES
OF A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF WEAK CONVECTION BISECTING KS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEB. THE BOTTOM LINE: ANY CHANCE OF POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE
TO WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION TAKES
PLACE...AND EVEN THEN MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD START OFF
CONCENTRATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CWA UNDER THE HEART OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA
LATE AFTERNOON- EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UNFORTUNATELY RUNNING LATER THAN USUAL THIS MORNING DUE TO A
CHALLENGING NIGHT OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TIMING...THE POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF 1+ INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THESE
PAST 12 HOURS HAVE PROVEN TO BE THE MAIN SHOW SO FAR THIS WEEK.
THE ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE TRULY FALLEN WELL SHORT OF 1 INCH
OVERNIGHT HAVE MAINLY RESIDED WITHIN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
GREELEY/SHERMAN/VALLEY/ AND ALSO FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS IN/NEAR
MITCHELL COUNTY KANSAS. BY FAR THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF HEAVY...LIKELY
2-4+ INCH RAINFALL OVERNIGHT CONCENTRATED WITHIN A ROUGHLY 20 MILE
WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ROOKS/SOUTHERN PHILLIPS
COUNTY ON ONE END OF THE CWA...THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED
CLOUD-CLAY CENTER-SOUTHERN YORK/NORTHERN FILLMORE COUNTY AREA.
ALTHOUGH GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS OF FLOODING ARE VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS MORNING...POINT RIVER WARNINGS FOR AUTOMATED GAUGES CONTINUE
FOR THE BOW CREEK NORTH OF STOCKTON KS AND FOR THE LITTLE BLUER
RIVER NEAR DEWEESE ON THE NEB SIDE. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
WILL SHED CONSIDERABLY MORE LIGHT ON WHETHER MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-
LYING AREA/STREAM FLOODING MAY BE HAPPENING ACROSS THE AREA THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN FELL ON AREAS THAT HAD NOT OBSERVED NOTABLE AMOUNTS DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...KEPT IT INTACT/UNCHANGED THROUGH
15Z/10AM...AND ALTHOUGH MOST FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE OUT THERE
ARE LIKELY ALREADY ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...WANT TO GIVE DAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS TO DECIDE IF ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER
DAY/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH COULD EASILY DUMP ANOTHER QUICK INCH
OR SO IN SOME PLACES.

TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 10Z/5AM...FORTUNATELY THE BULK
OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEB...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1.6-2.0 INCH RANGE. PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA...THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE
WETNESS IS A SEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT STEADILY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CO/WY BORDER
AREA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A HEALTHY 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET HAVE RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RECENTLY
STEERING THE HEAVIEST RAINS OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA TO THE EAST.

FOR TODAY...AND STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...THE SLOW-MOVING
MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...WITH ITS AXIS
ALIGNED FROM FAR WESTERN KS TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY SUNSET.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
DAY GOES ON. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A ROGUE/SPOTTY SHOWER IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT ANY POINT TODAY...THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION BASED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-
NMM AND 4KM NSSL WRF IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND LIKELY RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THEN...AS LIKELY AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OUT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD FEATURE
AT LEAST A MODEST/SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK 20-25KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND STILL-FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGREE
WITH SPC IN ADVERTISING BASELINE 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON GETTING SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...WHICH GENERALLY
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS POINT DESPITE THE OTHER
LIMITING FACTORS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BIG PICTURE INVOLVES THE CONTINUED
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD
BE RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AT NIGHTS END. AGAIN...ITS
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK
STORM AT ANY POINT TONIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT A GRADUAL WEST-
TO-EAST DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WEAR ON. PER THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
DATA...THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD PROBABLY DRY OUT COMPLETELY
POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST 06Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
KEEPING A BIT GREATER COVERAGE GOING...SO THUS WHY AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH ANY
LIKELY 60+ POPS CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BY 10 PM OR SO.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...ASSUMING THAT TODAY FEATURES MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY DID...MOST AREAS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...AND AGAIN WENT WITH A FAIRLY STANDARD MULTI-
GUIDANCE/MODEL BLEND TO AIM MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
80S...WITH MID 80S MORE COMMON NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHTS LOWS...AIMING FOR LOW-MID 60S MOST
AREAS AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 50S MAINLY FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. I FAVOR
ENSEMBLES FROM SREF FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS LEADS TO A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF MOST MODELS
PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ENSEMBLES LAG THE TROUGH BEHIND A BIT...THEREFORE I AM
KEEPING HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
PARAMETERS REVEAL THAT WE COULD GET SOME STRONG STORMS...AS BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.

TRYING TO PICK A DRY PERIOD IS RATHER DIFFICULT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT SATURDAY DOES LOOK LARGELY DRY DURING THE DAY...AS WE
SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE PRIMARILY FROM SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...BEHIND THE TROUGH GOING THROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HOWEVER...BY VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE POOR SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING OF THAT
NATURE.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTRODUCING A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LOOKING VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SUPPORT EXPECTED. THE HWO IS ALREADY
STRONGLY WORDED AND AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS.

WE COULD GET ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK RATHER SLIM
AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUPPORT IN MID-LEVELS FOR
PARTICULARLY STRONG CONVECTION.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO
PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WITH CEILING...ESPECIALLY AT KGRI. THE RAIN
IS GENERALLY ON ITS WAY OUT AND SO ARE THE BROKEN CEILINGS AT 300
FT. THERE COULD BE SOME STRAY CEILINGS AT 300 FT LEFT BEHIND FROM
TIME TO TIME...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS LESS SKY COVER AND WE ARE
ENTERING A LULL IN CONVECTION UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP....WITH SOME POSSIBLY BEING SEVERE.
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...SO
VCTS IS USED FOR NOW...AND PERHAPS SOMETHING MORE NARROWED DOWN AS
TIME DRAWS NEARER TO THE PRODUCTION OF CONVECTION. WIND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-073>077-082>086.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 281158
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
658 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UNFORTUNATELY RUNNING LATER THAN USUAL THIS MORNING DUE TO A
CHALLENGING NIGHT OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TIMING...THE POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF 1+ INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THESE
PAST 12 HOURS HAVE PROVEN TO BE THE MAIN SHOW SO FAR THIS WEEK.
THE ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE TRULY FALLEN WELL SHORT OF 1 INCH
OVERNIGHT HAVE MAINLY RESIDED WITHIN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
GREELEY/SHERMAN/VALLEY/ AND ALSO FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS IN/NEAR
MITCHELL COUNTY KANSAS. BY FAR THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF HEAVY...LIKELY
2-4+ INCH RAINFALL OVERNIGHT CONCENTRATED WITHIN A ROUGHLY 20 MILE
WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ROOKS/SOUTHERN PHILLIPS
COUNTY ON ONE END OF THE CWA...THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED
CLOUD-CLAY CENTER-SOUTHERN YORK/NORTHERN FILLMORE COUNTY AREA.
ALTHOUGH GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS OF FLOODING ARE VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS MORNING...POINT RIVER WARNINGS FOR AUTOMATED GAUGES CONTINUE
FOR THE BOW CREEK NORTH OF STOCKTON KS AND FOR THE LITTLE BLUER
RIVER NEAR DEWEESE ON THE NEB SIDE. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
WILL SHED CONSIDERABLY MORE LIGHT ON WHETHER MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-
LYING AREA/STREAM FLOODING MAY BE HAPPENING ACROSS THE AREA THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN FELL ON AREAS THAT HAD NOT OBSERVED NOTABLE AMOUNTS DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...KEPT IT INTACT/UNCHANGED THROUGH
15Z/10AM...AND ALTHOUGH MOST FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE OUT THERE
ARE LIKELY ALREADY ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...WANT TO GIVE DAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS TO DECIDE IF ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER
DAY/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH COULD EASILY DUMP ANOTHER QUICK INCH
OR SO IN SOME PLACES.

TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 10Z/5AM...FORTUNATELY THE BULK
OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEB...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1.6-2.0 INCH RANGE. PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA...THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE
WETNESS IS A SEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT STEADILY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CO/WY BORDER
AREA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A HEALTHY 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET HAVE RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RECENTLY
STEERING THE HEAVIEST RAINS OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA TO THE EAST.

FOR TODAY...AND STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...THE SLOW-MOVING
MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...WITH ITS AXIS
ALIGNED FROM FAR WESTERN KS TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY SUNSET.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
DAY GOES ON. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A ROGUE/SPOTTY SHOWER IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT ANY POINT TODAY...THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION BASED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-
NMM AND 4KM NSSL WRF IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND LIKELY RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THEN...AS LIKELY AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OUT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD FEATURE
AT LEAST A MODEST/SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK 20-25KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND STILL-FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGREE
WITH SPC IN ADVERTISING BASELINE 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON GETTING SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...WHICH GENERALLY
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS POINT DESPITE THE OTHER
LIMITING FACTORS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BIG PICTURE INVOLVES THE CONTINUED
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD
BE RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AT NIGHTS END. AGAIN...ITS
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK
STORM AT ANY POINT TONIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT A GRADUAL WEST-
TO-EAST DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WEAR ON. PER THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
DATA...THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD PROBABLY DRY OUT COMPLETELY
POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST 06Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
KEEPING A BIT GREATER COVERAGE GOING...SO THUS WHY AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH ANY
LIKELY 60+ POPS CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BY 10 PM OR SO.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...ASSUMING THAT TODAY FEATURES MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY DID...MOST AREAS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...AND AGAIN WENT WITH A FAIRLY STANDARD MULTI-
GUIDANCE/MODEL BLEND TO AIM MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
80S...WITH MID 80S MORE COMMON NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHTS LOWS...AIMING FOR LOW-MID 60S MOST
AREAS AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 50S MAINLY FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. I FAVOR
ENSEMBLES FROM SREF FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS LEADS TO A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF MOST MODELS
PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ENSEMBLES LAG THE TROUGH BEHIND A BIT...THEREFORE I AM
KEEPING HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
PARAMETERS REVEAL THAT WE COULD GET SOME STRONG STORMS...AS BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.

TRYING TO PICK A DRY PERIOD IS RATHER DIFFICULT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT SATURDAY DOES LOOK LARGELY DRY DURING THE DAY...AS WE
SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE PRIMARILY FROM SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...BEHIND THE TROUGH GOING THROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HOWEVER...BY VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE POOR SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING OF THAT
NATURE.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTRODUCING A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LOOKING VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SUPPORT EXPECTED. THE HWO IS ALREADY
STRONGLY WORDED AND AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS.

WE COULD GET ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK RATHER SLIM
AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUPPORT IN MID-LEVELS FOR
PARTICULARLY STRONG CONVECTION.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO
PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WITH CEILING...ESPECIALLY AT KGRI. THE RAIN
IS GENERALLY ON ITS WAY OUT AND SO ARE THE BROKEN CEILINGS AT 300
FT. THERE COULD BE SOME STRAY CEILINGS AT 300 FT LEFT BEHIND FROM
TIME TO TIME...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS LESS SKY COVER AND WE ARE
ENTERING A LULL IN CONVECTION UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP....WITH SOME POSSIBLY BEING SEVERE.
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...SO
VCTS IS USED FOR NOW...AND PERHAPS SOMETHING MORE NARROWED DOWN AS
TIME DRAWS NEARER TO THE PRODUCTION OF CONVECTION. WIND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-073>077-082>086.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017-018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 281158
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
658 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UNFORTUNATELY RUNNING LATER THAN USUAL THIS MORNING DUE TO A
CHALLENGING NIGHT OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TIMING...THE POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF 1+ INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THESE
PAST 12 HOURS HAVE PROVEN TO BE THE MAIN SHOW SO FAR THIS WEEK.
THE ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE TRULY FALLEN WELL SHORT OF 1 INCH
OVERNIGHT HAVE MAINLY RESIDED WITHIN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
GREELEY/SHERMAN/VALLEY/ AND ALSO FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS IN/NEAR
MITCHELL COUNTY KANSAS. BY FAR THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF HEAVY...LIKELY
2-4+ INCH RAINFALL OVERNIGHT CONCENTRATED WITHIN A ROUGHLY 20 MILE
WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ROOKS/SOUTHERN PHILLIPS
COUNTY ON ONE END OF THE CWA...THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED
CLOUD-CLAY CENTER-SOUTHERN YORK/NORTHERN FILLMORE COUNTY AREA.
ALTHOUGH GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS OF FLOODING ARE VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS MORNING...POINT RIVER WARNINGS FOR AUTOMATED GAUGES CONTINUE
FOR THE BOW CREEK NORTH OF STOCKTON KS AND FOR THE LITTLE BLUER
RIVER NEAR DEWEESE ON THE NEB SIDE. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
WILL SHED CONSIDERABLY MORE LIGHT ON WHETHER MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-
LYING AREA/STREAM FLOODING MAY BE HAPPENING ACROSS THE AREA THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN FELL ON AREAS THAT HAD NOT OBSERVED NOTABLE AMOUNTS DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...KEPT IT INTACT/UNCHANGED THROUGH
15Z/10AM...AND ALTHOUGH MOST FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE OUT THERE
ARE LIKELY ALREADY ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...WANT TO GIVE DAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS TO DECIDE IF ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER
DAY/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH COULD EASILY DUMP ANOTHER QUICK INCH
OR SO IN SOME PLACES.

TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 10Z/5AM...FORTUNATELY THE BULK
OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEB...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1.6-2.0 INCH RANGE. PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA...THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE
WETNESS IS A SEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT STEADILY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CO/WY BORDER
AREA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A HEALTHY 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET HAVE RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RECENTLY
STEERING THE HEAVIEST RAINS OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA TO THE EAST.

FOR TODAY...AND STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...THE SLOW-MOVING
MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...WITH ITS AXIS
ALIGNED FROM FAR WESTERN KS TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY SUNSET.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
DAY GOES ON. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A ROGUE/SPOTTY SHOWER IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT ANY POINT TODAY...THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION BASED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-
NMM AND 4KM NSSL WRF IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND LIKELY RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THEN...AS LIKELY AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OUT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD FEATURE
AT LEAST A MODEST/SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK 20-25KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND STILL-FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGREE
WITH SPC IN ADVERTISING BASELINE 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON GETTING SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...WHICH GENERALLY
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS POINT DESPITE THE OTHER
LIMITING FACTORS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BIG PICTURE INVOLVES THE CONTINUED
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD
BE RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AT NIGHTS END. AGAIN...ITS
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK
STORM AT ANY POINT TONIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT A GRADUAL WEST-
TO-EAST DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WEAR ON. PER THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
DATA...THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD PROBABLY DRY OUT COMPLETELY
POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST 06Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
KEEPING A BIT GREATER COVERAGE GOING...SO THUS WHY AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH ANY
LIKELY 60+ POPS CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BY 10 PM OR SO.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...ASSUMING THAT TODAY FEATURES MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY DID...MOST AREAS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...AND AGAIN WENT WITH A FAIRLY STANDARD MULTI-
GUIDANCE/MODEL BLEND TO AIM MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
80S...WITH MID 80S MORE COMMON NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHTS LOWS...AIMING FOR LOW-MID 60S MOST
AREAS AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 50S MAINLY FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. I FAVOR
ENSEMBLES FROM SREF FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS LEADS TO A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF MOST MODELS
PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ENSEMBLES LAG THE TROUGH BEHIND A BIT...THEREFORE I AM
KEEPING HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
PARAMETERS REVEAL THAT WE COULD GET SOME STRONG STORMS...AS BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.

TRYING TO PICK A DRY PERIOD IS RATHER DIFFICULT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT SATURDAY DOES LOOK LARGELY DRY DURING THE DAY...AS WE
SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE PRIMARILY FROM SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...BEHIND THE TROUGH GOING THROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HOWEVER...BY VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE POOR SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING OF THAT
NATURE.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTRODUCING A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LOOKING VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SUPPORT EXPECTED. THE HWO IS ALREADY
STRONGLY WORDED AND AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS.

WE COULD GET ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK RATHER SLIM
AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUPPORT IN MID-LEVELS FOR
PARTICULARLY STRONG CONVECTION.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO
PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WITH CEILING...ESPECIALLY AT KGRI. THE RAIN
IS GENERALLY ON ITS WAY OUT AND SO ARE THE BROKEN CEILINGS AT 300
FT. THERE COULD BE SOME STRAY CEILINGS AT 300 FT LEFT BEHIND FROM
TIME TO TIME...BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS LESS SKY COVER AND WE ARE
ENTERING A LULL IN CONVECTION UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP....WITH SOME POSSIBLY BEING SEVERE.
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...SO
VCTS IS USED FOR NOW...AND PERHAPS SOMETHING MORE NARROWED DOWN AS
TIME DRAWS NEARER TO THE PRODUCTION OF CONVECTION. WIND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-073>077-082>086.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017-018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 281143
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
643 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWPOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE WILL FILL BACK IN ALONG THE KLNK TO KOMA
CORRIDOR. EXPECT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION. THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR A TIME AFTER 18Z...BUT MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL LIKELY
BUBBLE UP AFTER 20Z. THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. AFTER
00Z THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER
GENERALLY LOWERING CIGS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES. IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE LIKELY BY 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NEZ015-017-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281143
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
643 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWPOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE WILL FILL BACK IN ALONG THE KLNK TO KOMA
CORRIDOR. EXPECT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION. THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR A TIME AFTER 18Z...BUT MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL LIKELY
BUBBLE UP AFTER 20Z. THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. AFTER
00Z THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER
GENERALLY LOWERING CIGS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES. IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE LIKELY BY 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NEZ015-017-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281143
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
643 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWPOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE WILL FILL BACK IN ALONG THE KLNK TO KOMA
CORRIDOR. EXPECT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION. THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR A TIME AFTER 18Z...BUT MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL LIKELY
BUBBLE UP AFTER 20Z. THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. AFTER
00Z THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER
GENERALLY LOWERING CIGS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES. IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE LIKELY BY 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NEZ015-017-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281143
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
643 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ONGOING RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PWAT WITH NEARLY 1200J/KG
CAPE AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 4KM.  CLOUD BEARING FLOW WAS
AROUND 15KTS. INITIAL PWATS WERE OVERDONE ON THE 00Z
ANALYSIS...HOWEVER RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
PWATS TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES NEAR HEBRON.  THE 00Z 60KT H3 JET HAD
ROUNDED TO BASE OF THE TROF AND WAS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO.  THE H5 CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS.  A SWATH OF 6-8 DEG C H7
DEWPOINTS COINCIDED WITH THE MOIST PLUME ON THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT H85...12 TO 17 DEGREE C DEWPOINTS COVERED A
LARGE AREA OVER THE PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 05Z WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO TEXAS...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

AT 06Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OGALLALA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING TOWARD HEBRON TO NORTH
OF TOPEKA. THROUGH TODAY...THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN OPENING UP THE H5 WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE...THE 30-40KT LOW
LEVEL JETS VEERS AND INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL UVV AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MAX UVV OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z...WHICH THEN SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN IOWA BY 18Z. LIFT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
EFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL AND WITH INCREASING UVV/LOW LEVEL
JET CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REGARDING
HEADLINES...CLOUD BEARING WINDS DO INCREASE AND THIS IS A CONCERN
FOR PARTS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SO FAR RAINFALL RATES HAVE MAINLY
BEEN IN THE .5 TO 1 INCH AREA WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR RATES OVER CASS COUNTY. SHOULD BE GETTING INTO MAX LIFT
BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z.  CELL MERGERS AND STORM RE- DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS FORECAST
AND LOCALLY HIGHER 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  AS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTH...CAN BEGIN TO TRIM. WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUN WILL BE SEEN...BUT WARM AIRMASS AND AND ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW HIGHS IN THE 80S.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IS
FORECAST...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY...WITH A TRACE TO A HALF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A HALF TO 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...SO WILL WANT TO RE-ASSESS MOISTURE FOR ANY INSTABILITY
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND HIGH PWATS RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  HAVE A DRIER PERIOD FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE WILL FILL BACK IN ALONG THE KLNK TO KOMA
CORRIDOR. EXPECT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION. THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR A TIME AFTER 18Z...BUT MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL LIKELY
BUBBLE UP AFTER 20Z. THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. AFTER
00Z THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...HOWEVER
GENERALLY LOWERING CIGS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES. IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE LIKELY BY 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NEZ015-017-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 281129
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
629 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A NICE CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO NEW
MEXICO. WV IMAGERY AS OF 07Z TONIGHT HAS THIS FEATURE SOUTHWEST
OF LARAMIE WYOMING. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER SWRN SD AS
WELL. OTHER H5 FEATURES NOTED OVER NOAM...INCLUDED STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SRN CA COAST AS WELL AS A DECENT NRN STREAM EXTENDING ACROSS
SRN CANADA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 07Z HAS A NICE PLUME OF SWRLY
MONSOON MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM SERN NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. FURTHER WEST...DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND AT PRESENT IS APPROACHING FAR SWRN NEBRASKA.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS EVENING. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE HEAVIEST OVER
PERKINS...KEITH AND ARTHUR COUNTIES WERE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RADAR
ESTIMATED RAINFALL OCCURRED. ATTM...THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVER
SWRN ARTHUR AND NORTHWESTERN KEITH COUNTY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF FAR WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN PERKINS COUNTY. A FLOOD ADVISORY
WAS IN EFFECT FOR PERKINS AND KEITH COUNTY AND WAS EXPIRED AT 330
AM CDT. AS OF 3 AM CDT...UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 60 AT OGALLALA TO 69 AT BROKEN BOW AND ONEILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RAIN
CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
TODAY IN THE EASTERN CWA. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WV IMAGERY ATTM
HAS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SWRN...THEN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
DRYING...ABUNDANT SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE SWRN US WITH PWATS OF
GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. WEST OF THIS
ROUTE...PWATS DROP TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES DUE TO THE MID LEVEL DRYING
PER WV IMAGERY. THIS WILL DECREASE PCPN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN
THE WESTERN CWA. DID NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE PCPN HOWEVER AS NO CAP
IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WE DO
SEE THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILL WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
INSTABILITY SHRAS BY LATE MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE EXISTS...AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. IN ADDITION TO
PCPN CHANCES IN THE EAST...THE THREAT FOR SHRAS WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS INTO
WRN NEBRASKA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A NICE AREA OF
DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON THE 310K AND
315K THETA SFC. THIS AREA WILL TRANSITION EAST THIS EVENING WITH
DECENT SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND THIS BAND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BY
12Z FRIDAY...MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A SMALL THREAT FOR PCPN
CONTINUES. AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ATTM...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THE
EXITING COLD POOL THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE SW
CONUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS FOCUSED. WITH THIS IN MIND
AND DUE TO A LACK OF PCPN IN MY EASTERN ZONES PER RADAR ESTIMATES
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IE...CUSTER...MOST OF
FRONTIER...WHEELER AND GARFIELD COUNTIES...WILL FORGO ANY FLOOD
WATCH FOR TODAY. TWO LOCATIONS THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE FLOODING ARE EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF EASTERN HOLT COUNTY WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALL TUESDAY NIGHT.
ATTM...THINKING HERE IS THAT SHORT TERM RAINFALL INTENSITIES IN
THESE AREAS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO FACILITATE ANY FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER WE MAY NEED SOME SORT OF SMALL STREAM ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS AS THEY ARE FULL OF HILLY TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THESE AREAS INTO THE MORNING HRS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE PUSHED
INTO CENTRAL KS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY FOR THE CWA...WITH
ONLY THE NAM STILL SHOWING LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. GENERAL THOUGH IS FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...HOWEVER WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. BY MIDDAY MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL AID IN WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS AND WILL KEEP CWA DRY. A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE DID WARM THINGS UP CLOSE TO
90...HOWEVER RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD DAMPEN THE QUICK RESPONSE OF
TEMPS...EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS KEPT HIGHS IN THE
80S. WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD HAVE SOME PACIFIC MONSOON MOISTURE TO
TAP. POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. EARLY ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACK IS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...THEN SHIFTS NORTHWARD. TIMING OF DISTURBANCES DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT AND WILL KEEP POPS LOW. HIGHS GENERALLY SEASONAL IN
THE 80S WHILE MILD LOWS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
DURING THE 18Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AT THE KVTN TERMINAL AND FROM 21Z
TO 03Z AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. CIGS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP DOWN
TO 5000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. BY 12Z FRIDAY...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM
15000 TO 25000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB






000
FXUS63 KLBF 281129
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
629 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A NICE CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO NEW
MEXICO. WV IMAGERY AS OF 07Z TONIGHT HAS THIS FEATURE SOUTHWEST
OF LARAMIE WYOMING. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER SWRN SD AS
WELL. OTHER H5 FEATURES NOTED OVER NOAM...INCLUDED STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SRN CA COAST AS WELL AS A DECENT NRN STREAM EXTENDING ACROSS
SRN CANADA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 07Z HAS A NICE PLUME OF SWRLY
MONSOON MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM SERN NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. FURTHER WEST...DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND AT PRESENT IS APPROACHING FAR SWRN NEBRASKA.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS EVENING. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE HEAVIEST OVER
PERKINS...KEITH AND ARTHUR COUNTIES WERE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RADAR
ESTIMATED RAINFALL OCCURRED. ATTM...THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVER
SWRN ARTHUR AND NORTHWESTERN KEITH COUNTY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF FAR WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN PERKINS COUNTY. A FLOOD ADVISORY
WAS IN EFFECT FOR PERKINS AND KEITH COUNTY AND WAS EXPIRED AT 330
AM CDT. AS OF 3 AM CDT...UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 60 AT OGALLALA TO 69 AT BROKEN BOW AND ONEILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RAIN
CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
TODAY IN THE EASTERN CWA. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WV IMAGERY ATTM
HAS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SWRN...THEN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
DRYING...ABUNDANT SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE SWRN US WITH PWATS OF
GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. WEST OF THIS
ROUTE...PWATS DROP TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES DUE TO THE MID LEVEL DRYING
PER WV IMAGERY. THIS WILL DECREASE PCPN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN
THE WESTERN CWA. DID NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE PCPN HOWEVER AS NO CAP
IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WE DO
SEE THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILL WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
INSTABILITY SHRAS BY LATE MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE EXISTS...AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. IN ADDITION TO
PCPN CHANCES IN THE EAST...THE THREAT FOR SHRAS WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS INTO
WRN NEBRASKA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A NICE AREA OF
DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON THE 310K AND
315K THETA SFC. THIS AREA WILL TRANSITION EAST THIS EVENING WITH
DECENT SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND THIS BAND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BY
12Z FRIDAY...MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A SMALL THREAT FOR PCPN
CONTINUES. AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ATTM...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THE
EXITING COLD POOL THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE SW
CONUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS FOCUSED. WITH THIS IN MIND
AND DUE TO A LACK OF PCPN IN MY EASTERN ZONES PER RADAR ESTIMATES
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IE...CUSTER...MOST OF
FRONTIER...WHEELER AND GARFIELD COUNTIES...WILL FORGO ANY FLOOD
WATCH FOR TODAY. TWO LOCATIONS THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE FLOODING ARE EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF EASTERN HOLT COUNTY WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALL TUESDAY NIGHT.
ATTM...THINKING HERE IS THAT SHORT TERM RAINFALL INTENSITIES IN
THESE AREAS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO FACILITATE ANY FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER WE MAY NEED SOME SORT OF SMALL STREAM ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS AS THEY ARE FULL OF HILLY TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THESE AREAS INTO THE MORNING HRS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE PUSHED
INTO CENTRAL KS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY FOR THE CWA...WITH
ONLY THE NAM STILL SHOWING LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. GENERAL THOUGH IS FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...HOWEVER WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. BY MIDDAY MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL AID IN WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS AND WILL KEEP CWA DRY. A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE DID WARM THINGS UP CLOSE TO
90...HOWEVER RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD DAMPEN THE QUICK RESPONSE OF
TEMPS...EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS KEPT HIGHS IN THE
80S. WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD HAVE SOME PACIFIC MONSOON MOISTURE TO
TAP. POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. EARLY ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACK IS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...THEN SHIFTS NORTHWARD. TIMING OF DISTURBANCES DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT AND WILL KEEP POPS LOW. HIGHS GENERALLY SEASONAL IN
THE 80S WHILE MILD LOWS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
DURING THE 18Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AT THE KVTN TERMINAL AND FROM 21Z
TO 03Z AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. CIGS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP DOWN
TO 5000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. BY 12Z FRIDAY...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM
15000 TO 25000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB






000
FXUS63 KLBF 281129
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
629 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A NICE CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO NEW
MEXICO. WV IMAGERY AS OF 07Z TONIGHT HAS THIS FEATURE SOUTHWEST
OF LARAMIE WYOMING. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER SWRN SD AS
WELL. OTHER H5 FEATURES NOTED OVER NOAM...INCLUDED STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SRN CA COAST AS WELL AS A DECENT NRN STREAM EXTENDING ACROSS
SRN CANADA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 07Z HAS A NICE PLUME OF SWRLY
MONSOON MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM SERN NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. FURTHER WEST...DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND AT PRESENT IS APPROACHING FAR SWRN NEBRASKA.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS EVENING. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE HEAVIEST OVER
PERKINS...KEITH AND ARTHUR COUNTIES WERE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RADAR
ESTIMATED RAINFALL OCCURRED. ATTM...THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVER
SWRN ARTHUR AND NORTHWESTERN KEITH COUNTY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF FAR WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN PERKINS COUNTY. A FLOOD ADVISORY
WAS IN EFFECT FOR PERKINS AND KEITH COUNTY AND WAS EXPIRED AT 330
AM CDT. AS OF 3 AM CDT...UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 60 AT OGALLALA TO 69 AT BROKEN BOW AND ONEILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RAIN
CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
TODAY IN THE EASTERN CWA. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WV IMAGERY ATTM
HAS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SWRN...THEN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
DRYING...ABUNDANT SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE SWRN US WITH PWATS OF
GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. WEST OF THIS
ROUTE...PWATS DROP TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES DUE TO THE MID LEVEL DRYING
PER WV IMAGERY. THIS WILL DECREASE PCPN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN
THE WESTERN CWA. DID NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE PCPN HOWEVER AS NO CAP
IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WE DO
SEE THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILL WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
INSTABILITY SHRAS BY LATE MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE EXISTS...AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. IN ADDITION TO
PCPN CHANCES IN THE EAST...THE THREAT FOR SHRAS WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS INTO
WRN NEBRASKA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A NICE AREA OF
DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON THE 310K AND
315K THETA SFC. THIS AREA WILL TRANSITION EAST THIS EVENING WITH
DECENT SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND THIS BAND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BY
12Z FRIDAY...MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A SMALL THREAT FOR PCPN
CONTINUES. AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ATTM...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THE
EXITING COLD POOL THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE SW
CONUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS FOCUSED. WITH THIS IN MIND
AND DUE TO A LACK OF PCPN IN MY EASTERN ZONES PER RADAR ESTIMATES
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IE...CUSTER...MOST OF
FRONTIER...WHEELER AND GARFIELD COUNTIES...WILL FORGO ANY FLOOD
WATCH FOR TODAY. TWO LOCATIONS THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE FLOODING ARE EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF EASTERN HOLT COUNTY WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALL TUESDAY NIGHT.
ATTM...THINKING HERE IS THAT SHORT TERM RAINFALL INTENSITIES IN
THESE AREAS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO FACILITATE ANY FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER WE MAY NEED SOME SORT OF SMALL STREAM ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS AS THEY ARE FULL OF HILLY TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THESE AREAS INTO THE MORNING HRS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE PUSHED
INTO CENTRAL KS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY FOR THE CWA...WITH
ONLY THE NAM STILL SHOWING LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. GENERAL THOUGH IS FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...HOWEVER WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. BY MIDDAY MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL AID IN WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS AND WILL KEEP CWA DRY. A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE DID WARM THINGS UP CLOSE TO
90...HOWEVER RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD DAMPEN THE QUICK RESPONSE OF
TEMPS...EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS KEPT HIGHS IN THE
80S. WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD HAVE SOME PACIFIC MONSOON MOISTURE TO
TAP. POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. EARLY ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACK IS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...THEN SHIFTS NORTHWARD. TIMING OF DISTURBANCES DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT AND WILL KEEP POPS LOW. HIGHS GENERALLY SEASONAL IN
THE 80S WHILE MILD LOWS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
DURING THE 18Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AT THE KVTN TERMINAL AND FROM 21Z
TO 03Z AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. CIGS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP DOWN
TO 5000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. BY 12Z FRIDAY...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM
15000 TO 25000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB






000
FXUS63 KLBF 281129
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
629 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A NICE CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO NEW
MEXICO. WV IMAGERY AS OF 07Z TONIGHT HAS THIS FEATURE SOUTHWEST
OF LARAMIE WYOMING. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER SWRN SD AS
WELL. OTHER H5 FEATURES NOTED OVER NOAM...INCLUDED STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SRN CA COAST AS WELL AS A DECENT NRN STREAM EXTENDING ACROSS
SRN CANADA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 07Z HAS A NICE PLUME OF SWRLY
MONSOON MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM SERN NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. FURTHER WEST...DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND AT PRESENT IS APPROACHING FAR SWRN NEBRASKA.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS EVENING. RADAR ESTIMATES WERE HEAVIEST OVER
PERKINS...KEITH AND ARTHUR COUNTIES WERE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RADAR
ESTIMATED RAINFALL OCCURRED. ATTM...THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVER
SWRN ARTHUR AND NORTHWESTERN KEITH COUNTY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF FAR WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN PERKINS COUNTY. A FLOOD ADVISORY
WAS IN EFFECT FOR PERKINS AND KEITH COUNTY AND WAS EXPIRED AT 330
AM CDT. AS OF 3 AM CDT...UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 60 AT OGALLALA TO 69 AT BROKEN BOW AND ONEILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RAIN
CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY
TODAY IN THE EASTERN CWA. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WV IMAGERY ATTM
HAS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SWRN...THEN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. EAST OF THIS
DRYING...ABUNDANT SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE SWRN US WITH PWATS OF
GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. WEST OF THIS
ROUTE...PWATS DROP TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES DUE TO THE MID LEVEL DRYING
PER WV IMAGERY. THIS WILL DECREASE PCPN CHANCES THIS MORNING IN
THE WESTERN CWA. DID NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE PCPN HOWEVER AS NO CAP
IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WE DO
SEE THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY FILL WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
INSTABILITY SHRAS BY LATE MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE EXISTS...AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. IN ADDITION TO
PCPN CHANCES IN THE EAST...THE THREAT FOR SHRAS WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS INTO
WRN NEBRASKA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A NICE AREA OF
DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON THE 310K AND
315K THETA SFC. THIS AREA WILL TRANSITION EAST THIS EVENING WITH
DECENT SUBSIDENCE NOTED BEHIND THIS BAND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BY
12Z FRIDAY...MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A SMALL THREAT FOR PCPN
CONTINUES. AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ATTM...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THE
EXITING COLD POOL THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE SW
CONUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS FOCUSED. WITH THIS IN MIND
AND DUE TO A LACK OF PCPN IN MY EASTERN ZONES PER RADAR ESTIMATES
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IE...CUSTER...MOST OF
FRONTIER...WHEELER AND GARFIELD COUNTIES...WILL FORGO ANY FLOOD
WATCH FOR TODAY. TWO LOCATIONS THAT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE FLOODING ARE EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY...AS WELL AS PARTS
OF EASTERN HOLT COUNTY WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALL TUESDAY NIGHT.
ATTM...THINKING HERE IS THAT SHORT TERM RAINFALL INTENSITIES IN
THESE AREAS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO FACILITATE ANY FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER WE MAY NEED SOME SORT OF SMALL STREAM ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS AS THEY ARE FULL OF HILLY TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THESE AREAS INTO THE MORNING HRS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

BY FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE PUSHED
INTO CENTRAL KS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY FOR THE CWA...WITH
ONLY THE NAM STILL SHOWING LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. GENERAL THOUGH IS FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY...HOWEVER WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. BY MIDDAY MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL AID IN WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN IN THE DAKOTAS AND WILL KEEP CWA DRY. A SFC COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE DID WARM THINGS UP CLOSE TO
90...HOWEVER RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD DAMPEN THE QUICK RESPONSE OF
TEMPS...EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THUS KEPT HIGHS IN THE
80S. WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD HAVE SOME PACIFIC MONSOON MOISTURE TO
TAP. POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. EARLY ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACK IS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...THEN SHIFTS NORTHWARD. TIMING OF DISTURBANCES DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT AND WILL KEEP POPS LOW. HIGHS GENERALLY SEASONAL IN
THE 80S WHILE MILD LOWS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
DURING THE 18Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME AT THE KVTN TERMINAL AND FROM 21Z
TO 03Z AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. CIGS IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP DOWN
TO 5000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. BY 12Z FRIDAY...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM
15000 TO 25000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB






000
FXUS63 KGID 281045
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UNFORTUNATELY RUNNING LATER THAN USUAL THIS MORNING DUE TO A
CHALLENGING NIGHT OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TIMING...THE POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF 1+ INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THESE
PAST 12 HOURS HAVE PROVEN TO BE THE MAIN SHOW SO FAR THIS WEEK.
THE ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE TRULY FALLEN WELL SHORT OF 1 INCH
OVERNIGHT HAVE MAINLY RESIDED WITHIN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
GREELEY/SHERMAN/VALLEY/ AND ALSO FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS IN/NEAR
MITCHELL COUNTY KANSAS. BY FAR THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF HEAVY...LIKELY
2-4+ INCH RAINFALL OVERNIGHT CONCENTRATED WITHIN A ROUGHLY 20 MILE
WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ROOKS/SOUTHERN PHILLIPS
COUNTY ON ONE END OF THE CWA...THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED
CLOUD-CLAY CENTER-SOUTHERN YORK/NORTHERN FILLMORE COUNTY AREA.
ALTHOUGH GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS OF FLOODING ARE VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS MORNING...POINT RIVER WARNINGS FOR AUTOMATED GAUGES CONTINUE
FOR THE BOW CREEK NORTH OF STOCKTON KS AND FOR THE LITTLE BLUER
RIVER NEAR DEWEESE ON THE NEB SIDE. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
WILL SHED CONSIDERABLY MORE LIGHT ON WHETHER MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-
LYING AREA/STREAM FLOODING MAY BE HAPPENING ACROSS THE AREA THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN FELL ON AREAS THAT HAD NOT OBSERVED NOTABLE AMOUNTS DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...KEPT IT INTACT/UNCHANGED THROUGH
15Z/10AM...AND ALTHOUGH MOST FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE OUT THERE
ARE LIKELY ALREADY ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...WANT TO GIVE DAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS TO DECIDE IF ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER
DAY/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH COULD EASILY DUMP ANOTHER QUICK INCH
OR SO IN SOME PLACES.

TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 10Z/5AM...FORTUNATELY THE BULK
OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEB...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1.6-2.0 INCH RANGE. PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA...THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE
WETNESS IS A SEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT STEADILY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CO/WY BORDER
AREA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A HEALTHY 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET HAVE RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RECENTLY
STEERING THE HEAVIEST RAINS OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA TO THE EAST.

FOR TODAY...AND STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...THE SLOW-MOVING
MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...WITH ITS AXIS
ALIGNED FROM FAR WESTERN KS TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY SUNSET.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
DAY GOES ON. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A ROGUE/SPOTTY SHOWER IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT ANY POINT TODAY...THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION BASED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-
NMM AND 4KM NSSL WRF IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND LIKELY RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THEN...AS LIKELY AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OUT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD FEATURE
AT LEAST A MODEST/SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK 20-25KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND STILL-FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGREE
WITH SPC IN ADVERTISING BASELINE 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON GETTING SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...WHICH GENERALLY
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS POINT DESPITE THE OTHER
LIMITING FACTORS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BIG PICTURE INVOLVES THE CONTINUED
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD
BE RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AT NIGHTS END. AGAIN...ITS
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK
STORM AT ANY POINT TONIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT A GRADUAL WEST-
TO-EAST DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WEAR ON. PER THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
DATA...THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD PROBABLY DRY OUT COMPLETELY
POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST 06Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
KEEPING A BIT GREATER COVERAGE GOING...SO THUS WHY AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH ANY
LIKELY 60+ POPS CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BY 10 PM OR SO.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...ASSUMING THAT TODAY FEATURES MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY DID...MOST AREAS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...AND AGAIN WENT WITH A FAIRLY STANDARD MULTI-
GUIDANCE/MODEL BLEND TO AIM MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
80S...WITH MID 80S MORE COMMON NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHTS LOWS...AIMING FOR LOW-MID 60S MOST
AREAS AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 50S MAINLY FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. I FAVOR
ENSEMBLES FROM SREF FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS LEADS TO A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF MOST MODELS
PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ENSEMBLES LAG THE TROUGH BEHIND A BIT...THEREFORE I AM
KEEPING HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
PARAMETERS REVEAL THAT WE COULD GET SOME STRONG STORMS...AS BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.

TRYING TO PICK A DRY PERIOD IS RATHER DIFFICULT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT SATURDAY DOES LOOK LARGELY DRY DURING THE DAY...AS WE
SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE PRIMARILY FROM SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...BEHIND THE TROUGH GOING THROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HOWEVER...BY VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE POOR SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING OF THAT
NATURE.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTRODUCING A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LOOKING VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SUPPORT EXPECTED. THE HWO IS ALREADY
STRONGLY WORDED AND AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS.

WE COULD GET ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK RATHER SLIM
AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUPPORT IN MID-LEVELS FOR
PARTICULARLY STRONG CONVECTION.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO
PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THIS IS A RATHER DIFFICULT TAF PERIOD TO FORECAST. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE FOR THIS PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY IMPACTING BOTH
TERMINAL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS...OR
BASICALLY UNTIL WE CAN GET THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE KEARNEY
TAF SITE FIRST...WHILE THE GRAND ISLAND TAF SITE MAY BE IMPACTED
ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER. VISIBILITIES MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IN THE
CURRENT TAF...BUT WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAIN THE VISIBILITIES MAY BE
CLOSER TO MVFR. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN LATER THIS MORNING AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS. THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE
DIFFICULT PART OF THIS FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING SAID...I AM
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE
REACH PEAK HEATING. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TO MVFR OR IFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-073>077-082>086.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017-018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...GUERRERO




000
FXUS63 KGID 281045
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

UNFORTUNATELY RUNNING LATER THAN USUAL THIS MORNING DUE TO A
CHALLENGING NIGHT OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TIMING...THE POSSIBILITY
OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF 1+ INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...THESE
PAST 12 HOURS HAVE PROVEN TO BE THE MAIN SHOW SO FAR THIS WEEK.
THE ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE TRULY FALLEN WELL SHORT OF 1 INCH
OVERNIGHT HAVE MAINLY RESIDED WITHIN FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
GREELEY/SHERMAN/VALLEY/ AND ALSO FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS IN/NEAR
MITCHELL COUNTY KANSAS. BY FAR THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF HEAVY...LIKELY
2-4+ INCH RAINFALL OVERNIGHT CONCENTRATED WITHIN A ROUGHLY 20 MILE
WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ROOKS/SOUTHERN PHILLIPS
COUNTY ON ONE END OF THE CWA...THEN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED
CLOUD-CLAY CENTER-SOUTHERN YORK/NORTHERN FILLMORE COUNTY AREA.
ALTHOUGH GROUND-TRUTH REPORTS OF FLOODING ARE VERY LIMITED SO FAR
THIS MORNING...POINT RIVER WARNINGS FOR AUTOMATED GAUGES CONTINUE
FOR THE BOW CREEK NORTH OF STOCKTON KS AND FOR THE LITTLE BLUER
RIVER NEAR DEWEESE ON THE NEB SIDE. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
WILL SHED CONSIDERABLY MORE LIGHT ON WHETHER MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-
LYING AREA/STREAM FLOODING MAY BE HAPPENING ACROSS THE AREA THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN FELL ON AREAS THAT HAD NOT OBSERVED NOTABLE AMOUNTS DURING
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...KEPT IT INTACT/UNCHANGED THROUGH
15Z/10AM...AND ALTHOUGH MOST FLOODING ISSUES THAT ARE OUT THERE
ARE LIKELY ALREADY ATTRIBUTED TO RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...WANT TO GIVE DAY SHIFT A FEW HOURS TO DECIDE IF ANOTHER
POSSIBLE EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE WARRANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER
DAY/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH COULD EASILY DUMP ANOTHER QUICK INCH
OR SO IN SOME PLACES.

TURNING TO THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 10Z/5AM...FORTUNATELY THE BULK
OF STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEB...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE UP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1.6-2.0 INCH RANGE. PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA...THE LARGE-SCALE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE
WETNESS IS A SEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLOWLY BUT STEADILY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CO/WY BORDER
AREA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A HEALTHY 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET HAVE RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RECENTLY
STEERING THE HEAVIEST RAINS OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA TO THE EAST.

FOR TODAY...AND STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...THE SLOW-MOVING
MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...WITH ITS AXIS
ALIGNED FROM FAR WESTERN KS TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY SUNSET.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE
DAY GOES ON. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A ROGUE/SPOTTY SHOWER IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT ANY POINT TODAY...THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION BASED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 00Z 4KM WRF-
NMM AND 4KM NSSL WRF IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND LIKELY RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THEN...AS LIKELY AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OUT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND NEAR/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD FEATURE
AT LEAST A MODEST/SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF AROUND 2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE BUT FAIRLY WEAK 20-25KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND STILL-FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AGREE
WITH SPC IN ADVERTISING BASELINE 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. AGAIN...ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON GETTING SOME LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION...WHICH GENERALLY
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS POINT DESPITE THE OTHER
LIMITING FACTORS.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BIG PICTURE INVOLVES THE CONTINUED
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD
BE RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA AT NIGHTS END. AGAIN...ITS
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK
STORM AT ANY POINT TONIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT A GRADUAL WEST-
TO-EAST DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE AS THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WEAR ON. PER THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
DATA...THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD PROBABLY DRY OUT COMPLETELY
POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST 06Z GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
KEEPING A BIT GREATER COVERAGE GOING...SO THUS WHY AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH ANY
LIKELY 60+ POPS CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BY 10 PM OR SO.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...ASSUMING THAT TODAY FEATURES MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY DID...MOST AREAS SHOULD JUMP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...AND AGAIN WENT WITH A FAIRLY STANDARD MULTI-
GUIDANCE/MODEL BLEND TO AIM MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW
80S...WITH MID 80S MORE COMMON NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHTS LOWS...AIMING FOR LOW-MID 60S MOST
AREAS AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 50S MAINLY FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. I FAVOR
ENSEMBLES FROM SREF FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS LEADS TO A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL IN QUESTION. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF MOST MODELS
PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ENSEMBLES LAG THE TROUGH BEHIND A BIT...THEREFORE I AM
KEEPING HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
PARAMETERS REVEAL THAT WE COULD GET SOME STRONG STORMS...AS BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.

TRYING TO PICK A DRY PERIOD IS RATHER DIFFICULT WITH THIS
PATTERN...BUT SATURDAY DOES LOOK LARGELY DRY DURING THE DAY...AS WE
SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE PRIMARILY FROM SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...BEHIND THE TROUGH GOING THROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
HOWEVER...BY VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE POOR SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING OF THAT
NATURE.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTRODUCING A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LOOKING VERY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SUPPORT EXPECTED. THE HWO IS ALREADY
STRONGLY WORDED AND AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THIS.

WE COULD GET ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK RATHER SLIM
AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SUPPORT IN MID-LEVELS FOR
PARTICULARLY STRONG CONVECTION.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO
PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THIS IS A RATHER DIFFICULT TAF PERIOD TO FORECAST. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE FOR THIS PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY IMPACTING BOTH
TERMINAL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS...OR
BASICALLY UNTIL WE CAN GET THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO ROLL THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE KEARNEY
TAF SITE FIRST...WHILE THE GRAND ISLAND TAF SITE MAY BE IMPACTED
ABOUT AN HOUR LONGER. VISIBILITIES MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH IN THE
CURRENT TAF...BUT WITHIN THE HEAVIER RAIN THE VISIBILITIES MAY BE
CLOSER TO MVFR. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
BETWEEN LATER THIS MORNING AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS. THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE
DIFFICULT PART OF THIS FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING SAID...I AM
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE
REACH PEAK HEATING. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TO MVFR OR IFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-073>077-082>086.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017-018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...GUERRERO



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