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000
FXUS63 KGID 200859
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARE CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...EXPECT A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
FIRE ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS FRONT AS IT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...THUS FAR...RADAR IS INDICATING THAT THESE STORMS ARE
REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LIKELY ONLY SOME DIME TO
PENNY SIZED HAIL IN THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED CELLS.

ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FADE...AND FOR
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS VALUES. THAT SAID...A
STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD USHER IN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT SCOPE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

OTHER THAN SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS
FRONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH...TO NEAR 60 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING THE
MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS..SETUP BETWEEN A TROUGH AXIS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WRN TX N/NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. TO THE WEST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS SITS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL COME TO PLAY A
BIGGER ROLE AS WE GET INTO THE WORK WEEK. SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO
BE A PRETTY NICE SEPTEMBER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN PLAYER
AT THE SURFACE BEING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE IN
DURING THE DAY...BRINGING A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...WITH
FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S.
AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH MODELS SHOWING THAT WRN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING FURTHER
INTO THE ROCKIES...SHOVING THE RIDGE AXIS ONTO THE PLAINS.  SHOULD
START TO SEE SRLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT SFC HIGH
SLIDING EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS LOOK TOWARD THE
EARLY/MID PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH THE MAIN LOW HAVING MOVED INTO THE WY/ID AREA. KEPT
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY...BUT LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...WHICH BY EVENING SHOULD BE MORE
CENTERED OVER WY...AND CONTINUED THE LOW POPS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...AS THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE WEST. WILL SEE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER ERN WY/CO.

AT THIS POINT IN TIME...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING ROUGHLY THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME AS BEING THE ONE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THOSE
PERIODS. MODELS SHOW THE LOW SHIFTING E/EN INTO THE SD AREA BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH SOME HINTING AT SOME WEAKENING TO MORE OF AN
OPEN TROUGH /NOT ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS/.  THE MAIN PUSH OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS /AS MODELS SHOW THE LOW CONTINUING
TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH/ THROUGH THE AREA COMES TUES NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...WITH POPS TRENDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST.

LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY AS WE GET INTO THE THURS/FRI PERIOD...WITH
MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME HINT AT
ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WHILE OTHERS SHOWING NOT MUCH OF
ANYTHING GOING ON. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS INTO THURS...BUT
LEFT PRECIP MENTION OUT FOR FRIDAY. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND OVER
THE COMING DAYS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RESULTING CLOUDS/PRECIP GOING TO PLAY A BIG
ROLE. HAVE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S IN FOR MON/TUE...WITH THE CHANCE FOR
A REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO 80 BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINAL DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MARKED MAINLY BY A WIND SHIFT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 12KTS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL...AND INCLUDED ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND DID NOT
MENTION A VCSH OR VCTS WITH ITS PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...COULD SEE SOME WIND SHEAR AS EVIDENT IN VAD WIND PROFILE
FROM RADAR RIGHT NOW...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER DAY BREAK.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 200859
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARE CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...EXPECT A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
FIRE ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS FRONT AS IT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...THUS FAR...RADAR IS INDICATING THAT THESE STORMS ARE
REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LIKELY ONLY SOME DIME TO
PENNY SIZED HAIL IN THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED CELLS.

ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FADE...AND FOR
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS VALUES. THAT SAID...A
STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD USHER IN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT SCOPE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

OTHER THAN SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS
FRONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH...TO NEAR 60 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING THE
MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS..SETUP BETWEEN A TROUGH AXIS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WRN TX N/NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. TO THE WEST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS SITS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL COME TO PLAY A
BIGGER ROLE AS WE GET INTO THE WORK WEEK. SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO
BE A PRETTY NICE SEPTEMBER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN PLAYER
AT THE SURFACE BEING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE IN
DURING THE DAY...BRINGING A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...WITH
FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S.
AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH MODELS SHOWING THAT WRN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING FURTHER
INTO THE ROCKIES...SHOVING THE RIDGE AXIS ONTO THE PLAINS.  SHOULD
START TO SEE SRLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT SFC HIGH
SLIDING EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS LOOK TOWARD THE
EARLY/MID PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH THE MAIN LOW HAVING MOVED INTO THE WY/ID AREA. KEPT
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY...BUT LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...WHICH BY EVENING SHOULD BE MORE
CENTERED OVER WY...AND CONTINUED THE LOW POPS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...AS THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE WEST. WILL SEE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER ERN WY/CO.

AT THIS POINT IN TIME...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING ROUGHLY THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME AS BEING THE ONE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THOSE
PERIODS. MODELS SHOW THE LOW SHIFTING E/EN INTO THE SD AREA BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH SOME HINTING AT SOME WEAKENING TO MORE OF AN
OPEN TROUGH /NOT ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS/.  THE MAIN PUSH OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS /AS MODELS SHOW THE LOW CONTINUING
TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH/ THROUGH THE AREA COMES TUES NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...WITH POPS TRENDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST.

LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY AS WE GET INTO THE THURS/FRI PERIOD...WITH
MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME HINT AT
ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WHILE OTHERS SHOWING NOT MUCH OF
ANYTHING GOING ON. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS INTO THURS...BUT
LEFT PRECIP MENTION OUT FOR FRIDAY. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND OVER
THE COMING DAYS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RESULTING CLOUDS/PRECIP GOING TO PLAY A BIG
ROLE. HAVE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S IN FOR MON/TUE...WITH THE CHANCE FOR
A REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO 80 BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINAL DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MARKED MAINLY BY A WIND SHIFT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 12KTS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL...AND INCLUDED ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND DID NOT
MENTION A VCSH OR VCTS WITH ITS PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...COULD SEE SOME WIND SHEAR AS EVIDENT IN VAD WIND PROFILE
FROM RADAR RIGHT NOW...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER DAY BREAK.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 200859
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARE CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...EXPECT A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
FIRE ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS FRONT AS IT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...THUS FAR...RADAR IS INDICATING THAT THESE STORMS ARE
REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LIKELY ONLY SOME DIME TO
PENNY SIZED HAIL IN THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED CELLS.

ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FADE...AND FOR
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS VALUES. THAT SAID...A
STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD USHER IN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT SCOPE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

OTHER THAN SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS
FRONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH...TO NEAR 60 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING THE
MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS..SETUP BETWEEN A TROUGH AXIS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WRN TX N/NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. TO THE WEST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS SITS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL COME TO PLAY A
BIGGER ROLE AS WE GET INTO THE WORK WEEK. SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO
BE A PRETTY NICE SEPTEMBER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN PLAYER
AT THE SURFACE BEING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE IN
DURING THE DAY...BRINGING A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...WITH
FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S.
AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH MODELS SHOWING THAT WRN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING FURTHER
INTO THE ROCKIES...SHOVING THE RIDGE AXIS ONTO THE PLAINS.  SHOULD
START TO SEE SRLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT SFC HIGH
SLIDING EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS LOOK TOWARD THE
EARLY/MID PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH THE MAIN LOW HAVING MOVED INTO THE WY/ID AREA. KEPT
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY...BUT LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...WHICH BY EVENING SHOULD BE MORE
CENTERED OVER WY...AND CONTINUED THE LOW POPS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...AS THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE WEST. WILL SEE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER ERN WY/CO.

AT THIS POINT IN TIME...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING ROUGHLY THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME AS BEING THE ONE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THOSE
PERIODS. MODELS SHOW THE LOW SHIFTING E/EN INTO THE SD AREA BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH SOME HINTING AT SOME WEAKENING TO MORE OF AN
OPEN TROUGH /NOT ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS/.  THE MAIN PUSH OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS /AS MODELS SHOW THE LOW CONTINUING
TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH/ THROUGH THE AREA COMES TUES NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...WITH POPS TRENDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST.

LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY AS WE GET INTO THE THURS/FRI PERIOD...WITH
MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME HINT AT
ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WHILE OTHERS SHOWING NOT MUCH OF
ANYTHING GOING ON. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS INTO THURS...BUT
LEFT PRECIP MENTION OUT FOR FRIDAY. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND OVER
THE COMING DAYS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RESULTING CLOUDS/PRECIP GOING TO PLAY A BIG
ROLE. HAVE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S IN FOR MON/TUE...WITH THE CHANCE FOR
A REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO 80 BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINAL DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MARKED MAINLY BY A WIND SHIFT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 12KTS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL...AND INCLUDED ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND DID NOT
MENTION A VCSH OR VCTS WITH ITS PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...COULD SEE SOME WIND SHEAR AS EVIDENT IN VAD WIND PROFILE
FROM RADAR RIGHT NOW...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER DAY BREAK.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 200859
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ARE CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...EXPECT A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
FIRE ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS FRONT AS IT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH...THUS FAR...RADAR IS INDICATING THAT THESE STORMS ARE
REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LIKELY ONLY SOME DIME TO
PENNY SIZED HAIL IN THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED CELLS.

ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FADE...AND FOR
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS VALUES. THAT SAID...A
STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD USHER IN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT SCOPE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

OTHER THAN SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS
FRONT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH...TO NEAR 60 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING THE
MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS..SETUP BETWEEN A TROUGH AXIS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WRN TX N/NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. TO THE WEST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS SITS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL COME TO PLAY A
BIGGER ROLE AS WE GET INTO THE WORK WEEK. SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO
BE A PRETTY NICE SEPTEMBER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN PLAYER
AT THE SURFACE BEING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE IN
DURING THE DAY...BRINGING A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...WITH
FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S.
AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH MODELS SHOWING THAT WRN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING FURTHER
INTO THE ROCKIES...SHOVING THE RIDGE AXIS ONTO THE PLAINS.  SHOULD
START TO SEE SRLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT SFC HIGH
SLIDING EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS LOOK TOWARD THE
EARLY/MID PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH THE MAIN LOW HAVING MOVED INTO THE WY/ID AREA. KEPT
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY...BUT LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...WHICH BY EVENING SHOULD BE MORE
CENTERED OVER WY...AND CONTINUED THE LOW POPS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...AS THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE WEST. WILL SEE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER ERN WY/CO.

AT THIS POINT IN TIME...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING ROUGHLY THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME AS BEING THE ONE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THOSE
PERIODS. MODELS SHOW THE LOW SHIFTING E/EN INTO THE SD AREA BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY...WITH SOME HINTING AT SOME WEAKENING TO MORE OF AN
OPEN TROUGH /NOT ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS/.  THE MAIN PUSH OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS /AS MODELS SHOW THE LOW CONTINUING
TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH/ THROUGH THE AREA COMES TUES NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...WITH POPS TRENDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST.

LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY AS WE GET INTO THE THURS/FRI PERIOD...WITH
MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT...THERE IS SOME HINT AT
ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WHILE OTHERS SHOWING NOT MUCH OF
ANYTHING GOING ON. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS INTO THURS...BUT
LEFT PRECIP MENTION OUT FOR FRIDAY. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND OVER
THE COMING DAYS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RESULTING CLOUDS/PRECIP GOING TO PLAY A BIG
ROLE. HAVE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S IN FOR MON/TUE...WITH THE CHANCE FOR
A REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO 80 BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINAL DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MARKED MAINLY BY A WIND SHIFT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 12KTS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL...AND INCLUDED ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND DID NOT
MENTION A VCSH OR VCTS WITH ITS PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...COULD SEE SOME WIND SHEAR AS EVIDENT IN VAD WIND PROFILE
FROM RADAR RIGHT NOW...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER DAY BREAK.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLBF 200824
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
324 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS SRN SD THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NCNTL NEB 12Z-15Z PRODUCING
SPRINKLES FOR THE MOST PART. THE HIGH CEILINGS SHOWN BY THE SFC OBS
SUPPORT THIS BUT PHILLIP SD PICKED UP 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN AT 06Z-07Z.
THE RAP13 MODEL APPEARS TOO BULLISH SHOWING WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS
THE FCST AREA VS THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER SHOWN IN THE
MODEL.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY FOLLOWS THE WARM SIDE OF A MULTIMODEL
ENSEMBLE FOR HIGHS 80 TO 85 WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE NAM AND ECM
GUIDANCE. THE MAV GUIDANCE WAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER BUT THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS COOLING AT 700 MB WHICH WOULD MORE LIKELY SUPPORT 80
TO 85 FOR HIGHS. THE WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ERN WY BUILDS
IN TODAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER PUSH OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE
THIS AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH AND ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. THIS HIGH IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL BE PULLED INTO THE FCST
AREA AS A DISTURBANCE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.

THE STRONG PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT FORCING
LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY MORNING. THE 00Z ECM
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW OF 38 AT PINE RIDGE WHICH IS 6 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE 00Z ECM MODEL RUN ONE DAY AGO. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NWRN NEB BY 12Z SUNDAY WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT THE ECM FORECAST. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING CONTINUE
FARTHER SOUTH FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SO CAL
WILL DRIFT NEWD THANKS TO BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS WRN CANADA
BEHIND EXITING NRN PLAINS UPPER PV ANOMALY. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEAK NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE SRN END
OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL SERVE TO DEVELOP A LEE TROF ACROSS ERN
CO/ERN WY. AS SFC HIGH SLIDES/REFORMS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS 2 SD ABOVE AVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS DEPICTED BY
19/12Z NAEFS. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO BE
MEAGER AT BEST AND DISTRIBUTED IN A NARROW REGION VERTICALLY. AS
SUCH WILL MAINLY WORD PRECIP AS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIP
AND LIKELY WILL BE HELD DOWN ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN THE SANDHILLS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL DETAILS OF THE
FCST AS MEANDERING UPPER LOW IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE MID RANGE
MODELS. MODELS KEEP IT IN THE NRN PLAINS REGION BUT ECMWF HAS IT IN
A WEAKENED STATE...WHILE THE GEM DROPS AN UPPER PV ANOMALY AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WHICH
CAUSES IT TO SLIDE BACK TO THE SW. GFS IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR...BUT HAS
MUCH WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY. AS ALL THIS
DEVELOPS...MORE SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WRN STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS MENTIONED...AND WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT BEST
FORCING TO OCCUR ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE MEANERING UPPER LOW WHICH
SUGGESTS BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF
THE STATE. AGAIN HOWEVER...IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THE LOW ENDS UP.
STRONG...MOIST FLOW CONTINUES HOWEVER...WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES AROUND
THE 1 INCH RANGE OR SLIGHTLY BETTER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY WHICH MAY BE
REALIZED IF SUNSHINE PREVAILS. END RESULT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOCATIONS MAY BE DETERMINED BY
RESULTANT BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION IN WEAK FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ITS TIME DEVELOPING IN THE LBF CWA THIS EVENING
BUT HAS NOW INITIATED IN ISOLD FASHION AS COLD FRONT BEGINNS TO
OVERTAKE SFC TROUGH AND HENCE DEEPER LIFT IN A REGION OF DECENT MID
LEVEL LASPE RATES. ISOLD TSRA IN WRN MCPHERSON COUNTY LOOKS TO TRACK
CLOSE TO KLBF IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN
LATEST ISSUANCE. SHORT RANGE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVING A HARD
TIME CAPTURING ACTUAL DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING...HRRR HAS WANTED TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE ENTIRE COLD FRONT EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...AND IR SAT PICS INDICATE CLOUD TOPS COOLING ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY. BELIEVE THE LARGER SCALE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
SOUTH AND EAST OF KLBF TAF SITE AND THERFORE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA
MENTION THROUGH 08Z. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF KVTN.
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE HELP OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SO ONCE CLOUD DEBRIS CLEARS MAINLY SKC WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL PICK ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 17-18Z SAT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 200824
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
324 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS SRN SD THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NCNTL NEB 12Z-15Z PRODUCING
SPRINKLES FOR THE MOST PART. THE HIGH CEILINGS SHOWN BY THE SFC OBS
SUPPORT THIS BUT PHILLIP SD PICKED UP 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN AT 06Z-07Z.
THE RAP13 MODEL APPEARS TOO BULLISH SHOWING WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS
THE FCST AREA VS THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER SHOWN IN THE
MODEL.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY FOLLOWS THE WARM SIDE OF A MULTIMODEL
ENSEMBLE FOR HIGHS 80 TO 85 WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE NAM AND ECM
GUIDANCE. THE MAV GUIDANCE WAS A FEW DEGREES WARMER BUT THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS COOLING AT 700 MB WHICH WOULD MORE LIKELY SUPPORT 80
TO 85 FOR HIGHS. THE WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ERN WY BUILDS
IN TODAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER PUSH OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE
THIS AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH AND ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. THIS HIGH IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL BE PULLED INTO THE FCST
AREA AS A DISTURBANCE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.

THE STRONG PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT FORCING
LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY MORNING. THE 00Z ECM
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW OF 38 AT PINE RIDGE WHICH IS 6 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE 00Z ECM MODEL RUN ONE DAY AGO. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NWRN NEB BY 12Z SUNDAY WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT THE ECM FORECAST. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING CONTINUE
FARTHER SOUTH FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SO CAL
WILL DRIFT NEWD THANKS TO BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS WRN CANADA
BEHIND EXITING NRN PLAINS UPPER PV ANOMALY. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEAK NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE SRN END
OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL SERVE TO DEVELOP A LEE TROF ACROSS ERN
CO/ERN WY. AS SFC HIGH SLIDES/REFORMS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND WILL
TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS 2 SD ABOVE AVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS DEPICTED BY
19/12Z NAEFS. HOWEVER...CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO BE
MEAGER AT BEST AND DISTRIBUTED IN A NARROW REGION VERTICALLY. AS
SUCH WILL MAINLY WORD PRECIP AS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIP
AND LIKELY WILL BE HELD DOWN ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN THE SANDHILLS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL DETAILS OF THE
FCST AS MEANDERING UPPER LOW IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE MID RANGE
MODELS. MODELS KEEP IT IN THE NRN PLAINS REGION BUT ECMWF HAS IT IN
A WEAKENED STATE...WHILE THE GEM DROPS AN UPPER PV ANOMALY AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WHICH
CAUSES IT TO SLIDE BACK TO THE SW. GFS IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR...BUT HAS
MUCH WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY. AS ALL THIS
DEVELOPS...MORE SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WRN STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS MENTIONED...AND WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT BEST
FORCING TO OCCUR ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE MEANERING UPPER LOW WHICH
SUGGESTS BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF
THE STATE. AGAIN HOWEVER...IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THE LOW ENDS UP.
STRONG...MOIST FLOW CONTINUES HOWEVER...WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES AROUND
THE 1 INCH RANGE OR SLIGHTLY BETTER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY WHICH MAY BE
REALIZED IF SUNSHINE PREVAILS. END RESULT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOCATIONS MAY BE DETERMINED BY
RESULTANT BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION IN WEAK FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ITS TIME DEVELOPING IN THE LBF CWA THIS EVENING
BUT HAS NOW INITIATED IN ISOLD FASHION AS COLD FRONT BEGINNS TO
OVERTAKE SFC TROUGH AND HENCE DEEPER LIFT IN A REGION OF DECENT MID
LEVEL LASPE RATES. ISOLD TSRA IN WRN MCPHERSON COUNTY LOOKS TO TRACK
CLOSE TO KLBF IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN
LATEST ISSUANCE. SHORT RANGE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVING A HARD
TIME CAPTURING ACTUAL DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING...HRRR HAS WANTED TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE ENTIRE COLD FRONT EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...AND IR SAT PICS INDICATE CLOUD TOPS COOLING ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY. BELIEVE THE LARGER SCALE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
SOUTH AND EAST OF KLBF TAF SITE AND THERFORE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA
MENTION THROUGH 08Z. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF KVTN.
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE HELP OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SO ONCE CLOUD DEBRIS CLEARS MAINLY SKC WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL PICK ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 17-18Z SAT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...CDC





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KOAX 200811
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
311 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POPS THIS MORNING...

AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...CONFINED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 THUS FAR. OVERALL THIS AREA HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HAS MAINTAINED MOSTLY
WEAK UPDRAFTS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALTHOUGH LIFTED PARCEL LEVELS ARE AROUND 2000 METERS.
LOW LEVEL JET IS AROUND 50 KNOTS ON KOAX VWP BUT HAS VEERED TO THE
WSW. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO CONTINUED SUPPORT OF CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...AND
MOSTLY ELEVATED.

HOW LONG IT WILL LINGER...AND SPECIFICALLY WHERE...SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO THE VERTICAL MOTION CAUSING IT. THE VERTICAL MOTION IS
MOSTLY BEING ATTRIBUTED TO MODERATELY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MID LEVELS THAT IS OCCURRING ABOVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ANALYZED AT 07Z EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS IS FORECAST BY MOST SHORT TERM MODELS TO EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE ALL AREAS DRY BY 22Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT AREAS FROM INTERSTATE 80 NORTH TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING...
BUT KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON PROXIMITY TO
DECELERATING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ON-
GOING CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN THAT AREA.

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. PLEASANT WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE NICE AS WELL...
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SOUTH WINDS SETTING
UP MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...MAIN CHALLENGE IS POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY...AND A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE WESTERN US. REMARKABLE SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT
12Z TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW CIRCULATION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NEBRASKA BRINGING A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW RAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND KANSAS AT 12Z
TUE...THEN THE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED RAIN MOVES EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z TUESDAY AND 18Z WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUED
THE CHANCE POPS DURING THAT PERIOD...WITH LIKELY POPS TUESDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE DRASTICALLY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY. THE GFS SUGGESTS
A CONTINUATION OF THE WET PATTERN BY DROPPING THE UPPER LOW INTO
NEBRASKA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE LOW TO BE SHEARED OFF TO
THE EAST BY THE BROADER SCALE UPPER RIDGE FLOW...WHICH LOOKS MORE
REALISTIC. KEPT THE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WENT DRY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TSTMS ACROSS NERN NE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK. THESE MAY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT THESE INTO TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BE A BIT GUSTY SATURDAY AFTN.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 200811
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
311 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POPS THIS MORNING...

AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...CONFINED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 THUS FAR. OVERALL THIS AREA HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HAS MAINTAINED MOSTLY
WEAK UPDRAFTS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALTHOUGH LIFTED PARCEL LEVELS ARE AROUND 2000 METERS.
LOW LEVEL JET IS AROUND 50 KNOTS ON KOAX VWP BUT HAS VEERED TO THE
WSW. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO CONTINUED SUPPORT OF CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...AND
MOSTLY ELEVATED.

HOW LONG IT WILL LINGER...AND SPECIFICALLY WHERE...SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO THE VERTICAL MOTION CAUSING IT. THE VERTICAL MOTION IS
MOSTLY BEING ATTRIBUTED TO MODERATELY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MID LEVELS THAT IS OCCURRING ABOVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ANALYZED AT 07Z EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS IS FORECAST BY MOST SHORT TERM MODELS TO EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE ALL AREAS DRY BY 22Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT AREAS FROM INTERSTATE 80 NORTH TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING...
BUT KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON PROXIMITY TO
DECELERATING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ON-
GOING CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN THAT AREA.

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. PLEASANT WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE NICE AS WELL...
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SOUTH WINDS SETTING
UP MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...MAIN CHALLENGE IS POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY...AND A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE WESTERN US. REMARKABLE SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT
12Z TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW CIRCULATION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NEBRASKA BRINGING A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW RAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND KANSAS AT 12Z
TUE...THEN THE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED RAIN MOVES EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z TUESDAY AND 18Z WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUED
THE CHANCE POPS DURING THAT PERIOD...WITH LIKELY POPS TUESDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE DRASTICALLY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY. THE GFS SUGGESTS
A CONTINUATION OF THE WET PATTERN BY DROPPING THE UPPER LOW INTO
NEBRASKA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE LOW TO BE SHEARED OFF TO
THE EAST BY THE BROADER SCALE UPPER RIDGE FLOW...WHICH LOOKS MORE
REALISTIC. KEPT THE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WENT DRY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TSTMS ACROSS NERN NE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK. THESE MAY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT THESE INTO TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BE A BIT GUSTY SATURDAY AFTN.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 200811
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
311 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POPS THIS MORNING...

AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...CONFINED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 THUS FAR. OVERALL THIS AREA HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HAS MAINTAINED MOSTLY
WEAK UPDRAFTS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALTHOUGH LIFTED PARCEL LEVELS ARE AROUND 2000 METERS.
LOW LEVEL JET IS AROUND 50 KNOTS ON KOAX VWP BUT HAS VEERED TO THE
WSW. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO CONTINUED SUPPORT OF CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...AND
MOSTLY ELEVATED.

HOW LONG IT WILL LINGER...AND SPECIFICALLY WHERE...SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO THE VERTICAL MOTION CAUSING IT. THE VERTICAL MOTION IS
MOSTLY BEING ATTRIBUTED TO MODERATELY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MID LEVELS THAT IS OCCURRING ABOVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ANALYZED AT 07Z EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS IS FORECAST BY MOST SHORT TERM MODELS TO EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE ALL AREAS DRY BY 22Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT AREAS FROM INTERSTATE 80 NORTH TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING...
BUT KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON PROXIMITY TO
DECELERATING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ON-
GOING CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN THAT AREA.

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. PLEASANT WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE NICE AS WELL...
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SOUTH WINDS SETTING
UP MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...MAIN CHALLENGE IS POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY...AND A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE WESTERN US. REMARKABLE SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT
12Z TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW CIRCULATION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NEBRASKA BRINGING A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW RAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND KANSAS AT 12Z
TUE...THEN THE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED RAIN MOVES EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z TUESDAY AND 18Z WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUED
THE CHANCE POPS DURING THAT PERIOD...WITH LIKELY POPS TUESDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE DRASTICALLY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY. THE GFS SUGGESTS
A CONTINUATION OF THE WET PATTERN BY DROPPING THE UPPER LOW INTO
NEBRASKA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE LOW TO BE SHEARED OFF TO
THE EAST BY THE BROADER SCALE UPPER RIDGE FLOW...WHICH LOOKS MORE
REALISTIC. KEPT THE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WENT DRY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TSTMS ACROSS NERN NE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK. THESE MAY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT THESE INTO TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BE A BIT GUSTY SATURDAY AFTN.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 200811
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
311 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POPS THIS MORNING...

AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...CONFINED MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 THUS FAR. OVERALL THIS AREA HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED
SOUTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HAS MAINTAINED MOSTLY
WEAK UPDRAFTS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IS AROUND
1000 J/KG ALTHOUGH LIFTED PARCEL LEVELS ARE AROUND 2000 METERS.
LOW LEVEL JET IS AROUND 50 KNOTS ON KOAX VWP BUT HAS VEERED TO THE
WSW. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO CONTINUED SUPPORT OF CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...AND
MOSTLY ELEVATED.

HOW LONG IT WILL LINGER...AND SPECIFICALLY WHERE...SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO THE VERTICAL MOTION CAUSING IT. THE VERTICAL MOTION IS
MOSTLY BEING ATTRIBUTED TO MODERATELY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
MID LEVELS THAT IS OCCURRING ABOVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WAS
ANALYZED AT 07Z EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS IS FORECAST BY MOST SHORT TERM MODELS TO EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE ALL AREAS DRY BY 22Z. GENERALLY
EXPECT AREAS FROM INTERSTATE 80 NORTH TO BE DRY BY LATE MORNING...
BUT KEPT A SMALL CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON PROXIMITY TO
DECELERATING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ON-
GOING CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN THAT AREA.

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. PLEASANT WEATHER
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE NICE AS WELL...
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SOUTH WINDS SETTING
UP MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...MAIN CHALLENGE IS POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS MONDAY...AND A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE WESTERN US. REMARKABLE SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT
12Z TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW CIRCULATION NEAR THE BLACK HILLS AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NEBRASKA BRINGING A RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW RAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND KANSAS AT 12Z
TUE...THEN THE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED RAIN MOVES EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z TUESDAY AND 18Z WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUED
THE CHANCE POPS DURING THAT PERIOD...WITH LIKELY POPS TUESDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE DRASTICALLY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE DROPS CONSIDERABLY. THE GFS SUGGESTS
A CONTINUATION OF THE WET PATTERN BY DROPPING THE UPPER LOW INTO
NEBRASKA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE LOW TO BE SHEARED OFF TO
THE EAST BY THE BROADER SCALE UPPER RIDGE FLOW...WHICH LOOKS MORE
REALISTIC. KEPT THE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WENT DRY FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TSTMS ACROSS NERN NE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK. THESE MAY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT THESE INTO TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BE A BIT GUSTY SATURDAY AFTN.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NIETFELD
LONG TERM...NIETFELD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KGID 200559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE NRN USA. AN
EMBEDDED WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF WAS OVER MT/WY AND
PROGRESSING SE. THIS TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL PASS THRU HERE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING. NW FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: A CANADIAN COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THRU WY
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12AM-12PM. SW CANADA HIGH PRES WILL
PRESS INTO MT TOMORROW AND BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY/BREEZY AND HOT IN MANY AREAS /AT
LEAST 90F/. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS AT 2 PM AS THIS THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVER- PERFORMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE JUST HRS PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 6-7 PM.

GRI WILL HIT 90F BEFORE 5 PM. THIS IS THE HOTTEST TEMP SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT AT LEAST 90 WAS AUG 20TH.

TONIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION /WHEN AND
WHERE/. A CAP IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO
NE NEB. GENERALLY LOW/SPOTTY MODEL QPF SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED /IE - ISOLATED/ AND TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO
S- CNTRL NEB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE
OVER ERN NEB AND THE WRN END COULD BRUSH AREAS E OF HWY 281.

MUCAPE VIA THE 15Z SREF IS FCST NEAR 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GENERALLY 20-25 KTS...ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM
STRUCTURES. AT WORST THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT QUARTER SIZE HAIL
"IF" A SEVERE STORM CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SUPPORT ALOFT...TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AND DO MUCH. GENERALLY
DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAILERS ARE EXPECTED. SO WATCH FOR SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS.

USED WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE 3-BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE SOURCES OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS FOR LOW TEMPS. THIS WILL ACCT FOR A LITTLE EXTRA
RADIATING FROM LXN-ODX WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF.

SAT: OVERALL A NICE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ON-GOING IN
THE MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY.

WHILE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA...THE 850 MB FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NRN KS BORDER ALONG WITH RICH DEWPOINTS. SO
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM OR TWO PRIMARILY OVER N-CNTRL
KS. MLCAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
20-25 KTS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS VERY
LOW...CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND..TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. BEYOND MONDAY...A COOLER
WETTER REGIME WILL SETTLE IN AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC (THIS ECMWF SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND/RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS).
WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH THE
MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
EVENTUALLY IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH TIME (THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHCS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE LATTER TIME FRAMES/END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE
OF A SW FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION WITH SFC OR H85 FRONT. MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH. HAVE INSERTED LOW BUFFER POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BOUNDARY POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.

A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. IN
THE COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND IN INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN W/E. AS STATED EARLIER...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINAL DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MARKED MAINLY BY A WIND SHIFT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 12KTS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL...AND INCLUDED ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND DID NOT
MENTION A VCSH OR VCTS WITH ITS PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...COULD SEE SOME WIND SHEAR AS EVIDENT IN VAD WIND PROFILE
FROM RADAR RIGHT NOW...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER DAY BREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 200559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE NRN USA. AN
EMBEDDED WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF WAS OVER MT/WY AND
PROGRESSING SE. THIS TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL PASS THRU HERE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING. NW FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: A CANADIAN COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THRU WY
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12AM-12PM. SW CANADA HIGH PRES WILL
PRESS INTO MT TOMORROW AND BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY/BREEZY AND HOT IN MANY AREAS /AT
LEAST 90F/. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS AT 2 PM AS THIS THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVER- PERFORMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE JUST HRS PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 6-7 PM.

GRI WILL HIT 90F BEFORE 5 PM. THIS IS THE HOTTEST TEMP SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT AT LEAST 90 WAS AUG 20TH.

TONIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION /WHEN AND
WHERE/. A CAP IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO
NE NEB. GENERALLY LOW/SPOTTY MODEL QPF SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED /IE - ISOLATED/ AND TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO
S- CNTRL NEB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE
OVER ERN NEB AND THE WRN END COULD BRUSH AREAS E OF HWY 281.

MUCAPE VIA THE 15Z SREF IS FCST NEAR 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GENERALLY 20-25 KTS...ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM
STRUCTURES. AT WORST THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT QUARTER SIZE HAIL
"IF" A SEVERE STORM CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SUPPORT ALOFT...TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AND DO MUCH. GENERALLY
DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAILERS ARE EXPECTED. SO WATCH FOR SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS.

USED WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE 3-BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE SOURCES OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS FOR LOW TEMPS. THIS WILL ACCT FOR A LITTLE EXTRA
RADIATING FROM LXN-ODX WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF.

SAT: OVERALL A NICE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ON-GOING IN
THE MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY.

WHILE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA...THE 850 MB FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NRN KS BORDER ALONG WITH RICH DEWPOINTS. SO
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM OR TWO PRIMARILY OVER N-CNTRL
KS. MLCAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
20-25 KTS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS VERY
LOW...CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND..TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. BEYOND MONDAY...A COOLER
WETTER REGIME WILL SETTLE IN AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC (THIS ECMWF SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND/RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS).
WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH THE
MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
EVENTUALLY IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH TIME (THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHCS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE LATTER TIME FRAMES/END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE
OF A SW FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION WITH SFC OR H85 FRONT. MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH. HAVE INSERTED LOW BUFFER POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BOUNDARY POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.

A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. IN
THE COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND IN INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN W/E. AS STATED EARLIER...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINAL DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MARKED MAINLY BY A WIND SHIFT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 12KTS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MINIMAL...AND INCLUDED ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND DID NOT
MENTION A VCSH OR VCTS WITH ITS PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...COULD SEE SOME WIND SHEAR AS EVIDENT IN VAD WIND PROFILE
FROM RADAR RIGHT NOW...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER DAY BREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KLBF 200523 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1223 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AT H5 CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MUCH
OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. REMNANTS OF ODILLE IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
HURRICANE POLO SEEN IN IR JUST WEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA. RIDGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEAK TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY LOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALSO...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SURFACE LAPS AND GOES DERIVED PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW FAIRLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND DECENT MOISTURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY ONEILL...BROKEN BOW AND
AINSWORTH...SO WE WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE STORMS IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS HAVE THE
SURFACE FRONT AND A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY TO AID THEIR
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF/ALONG IT/S
PATH.  THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT...BUT THIS CAP IS SHOWN TO ERODE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AS FORCING INCREASES WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT.  ATTM...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES AND THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS...WHERE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND BULK SHEAR FOR STORMS...BUT AT THAT...CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD ONLY SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST.  DCAPE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF A STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT THIS
EVENING AS SFC TD/T SPREADS APPROACH 40F ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
SANDHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE ANY STORM SHOULD REMAIN WELL-BEHAVED.  THE
ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF A LLJ WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAWN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A PRODUCT OF BC GUIDANCE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT...LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO EASILY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN DRAINAGE PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE PLATTE RIVER
SYSTEM.  WE CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHWEST...TO NEAR 60S OVER THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
MID 50S  SEEM FINE FOR KLBF AND KVTN.

WITH POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS PRESENT SATURDAY AND H85 T/S IN SOME
CASES 5C OR COOLER THAN TODAY...HIGHS WILL COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES...CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A 7-10 DEGREE DROP FROM
TODAY...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS COMING WORK WEEK. COOL FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY WILL BE WELL INTO NORTHERN KANSAS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER NORTHWEST
BACK TOWARDS COOLER AIR. CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER NEBRASKA. FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM NEW MEXICO
TO WYOMING WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH TO THE
EAST WILL BRING STRONG STEADY SOUTH FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AS
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE DAKOTAS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 80 AND
DRY. QPF AMOUNTS MAY HAVE TO BE BOOSTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ITS TIME DEVELOPING IN THE LBF CWA THIS EVENING
BUT HAS NOW INITIATED IN ISOLD FASHION AS COLD FRONT BEGINNS TO
OVERTAKE SFC TROUGH AND HENCE DEEPER LIFT IN A REGION OF DECENT MID
LEVEL LASPE RATES. ISOLD TSRA IN WRN MCPHERSON COUNTY LOOKS TO TRACK
CLOSE TO KLBF IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN
LATEST ISSUANCE. SHORT RANGE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVING A HARD
TIME CAPTURING ACTUAL DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING...HRRR HAS WANTED TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE ENTIRE COLD FRONT EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...AND IR SAT PICS INDICATE CLOUD TOPS COOLING ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY. BELIEVE THE LARGER SCALE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
SOUTH AND EAST OF KLBF TAF SITE AND THERFORE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA
MENTION THROUGH 08Z. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF KVTN.
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE HELP OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SO ONCE CLOUD DEBRIS CLEARS MAINLY SKC WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL PICK ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 17-18Z SAT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 200523 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1223 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AT H5 CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MUCH
OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. REMNANTS OF ODILLE IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
HURRICANE POLO SEEN IN IR JUST WEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA. RIDGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEAK TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY LOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALSO...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SURFACE LAPS AND GOES DERIVED PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW FAIRLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND DECENT MOISTURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY ONEILL...BROKEN BOW AND
AINSWORTH...SO WE WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE STORMS IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS HAVE THE
SURFACE FRONT AND A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY TO AID THEIR
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF/ALONG IT/S
PATH.  THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT...BUT THIS CAP IS SHOWN TO ERODE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AS FORCING INCREASES WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT.  ATTM...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES AND THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS...WHERE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND BULK SHEAR FOR STORMS...BUT AT THAT...CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD ONLY SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST.  DCAPE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF A STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT THIS
EVENING AS SFC TD/T SPREADS APPROACH 40F ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
SANDHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE ANY STORM SHOULD REMAIN WELL-BEHAVED.  THE
ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF A LLJ WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAWN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A PRODUCT OF BC GUIDANCE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT...LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO EASILY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN DRAINAGE PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE PLATTE RIVER
SYSTEM.  WE CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHWEST...TO NEAR 60S OVER THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
MID 50S  SEEM FINE FOR KLBF AND KVTN.

WITH POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS PRESENT SATURDAY AND H85 T/S IN SOME
CASES 5C OR COOLER THAN TODAY...HIGHS WILL COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES...CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A 7-10 DEGREE DROP FROM
TODAY...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS COMING WORK WEEK. COOL FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY WILL BE WELL INTO NORTHERN KANSAS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER NORTHWEST
BACK TOWARDS COOLER AIR. CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER NEBRASKA. FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM NEW MEXICO
TO WYOMING WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH TO THE
EAST WILL BRING STRONG STEADY SOUTH FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AS
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE DAKOTAS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 80 AND
DRY. QPF AMOUNTS MAY HAVE TO BE BOOSTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ITS TIME DEVELOPING IN THE LBF CWA THIS EVENING
BUT HAS NOW INITIATED IN ISOLD FASHION AS COLD FRONT BEGINNS TO
OVERTAKE SFC TROUGH AND HENCE DEEPER LIFT IN A REGION OF DECENT MID
LEVEL LASPE RATES. ISOLD TSRA IN WRN MCPHERSON COUNTY LOOKS TO TRACK
CLOSE TO KLBF IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN
LATEST ISSUANCE. SHORT RANGE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAVING A HARD
TIME CAPTURING ACTUAL DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING...HRRR HAS WANTED TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE ENTIRE COLD FRONT EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...AND IR SAT PICS INDICATE CLOUD TOPS COOLING ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY. BELIEVE THE LARGER SCALE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
SOUTH AND EAST OF KLBF TAF SITE AND THERFORE ONLY INCLUDED TSRA
MENTION THROUGH 08Z. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF KVTN.
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE HELP OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SO ONCE CLOUD DEBRIS CLEARS MAINLY SKC WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL PICK ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 17-18Z SAT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KOAX 200444
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1144 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES WITH IT. FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 MOVING OUT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR LIKELY PRECIP APPEAR TO BE TONIGHT
ALONG/NORTH OF I80. PRECIP AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A SECONDARY REINFORCING COOL FRONT ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
REALLY NO MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT JUST A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW THAT`S CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE WEST COAST NOW WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE ROCKIES.
AFOREMENTIONED RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO FAIRLY MOIST
AREA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADVECT THAT NORTHWARD.
PRECIP CHANCE INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THIS UPPER
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BULK OF MOISTURE PUSHES
EAST BY THURSDAY...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REMAIN...AND BY THEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ENOUGH TO HAVE OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE BY NEXT FRIDAY TO GO DRY UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY
DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TSTMS ACROSS NERN NE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK. THESE MAY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT THESE INTO TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BE A BIT GUSTY SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 200444
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1144 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES WITH IT. FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 MOVING OUT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR LIKELY PRECIP APPEAR TO BE TONIGHT
ALONG/NORTH OF I80. PRECIP AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A SECONDARY REINFORCING COOL FRONT ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
REALLY NO MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT JUST A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW THAT`S CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE WEST COAST NOW WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE ROCKIES.
AFOREMENTIONED RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO FAIRLY MOIST
AREA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADVECT THAT NORTHWARD.
PRECIP CHANCE INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THIS UPPER
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BULK OF MOISTURE PUSHES
EAST BY THURSDAY...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REMAIN...AND BY THEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ENOUGH TO HAVE OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE BY NEXT FRIDAY TO GO DRY UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY
DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TSTMS ACROSS NERN NE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK. THESE MAY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT THESE INTO TAFS ATTM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BE A BIT GUSTY SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 200339
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1039 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AT H5 CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MUCH
OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. REMNANTS OF ODILLE IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
HURRICANE POLO SEEN IN IR JUST WEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA. RIDGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEAK TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY LOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALSO...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SURFACE LAPS AND GOES DERIVED PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW FAIRLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND DECENT MOISTURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY ONEILL...BROKEN BOW AND
AINSWORTH...SO WE WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE STORMS IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS HAVE THE
SURFACE FRONT AND A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY TO AID THEIR
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF/ALONG IT/S
PATH.  THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT...BUT THIS CAP IS SHOWN TO ERODE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AS FORCING INCREASES WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT.  ATTM...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES AND THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS...WHERE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND BULK SHEAR FOR STORMS...BUT AT THAT...CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD ONLY SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST.  DCAPE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF A STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT THIS
EVENING AS SFC TD/T SPREADS APPROACH 40F ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
SANDHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE ANY STORM SHOULD REMAIN WELL-BEHAVED.  THE
ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF A LLJ WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAWN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A PRODUCT OF BC GUIDANCE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT...LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO EASILY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN DRAINAGE PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE PLATTE RIVER
SYSTEM.  WE CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHWEST...TO NEAR 60S OVER THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
MID 50S  SEEM FINE FOR KLBF AND KVTN.

WITH POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS PRESENT SATURDAY AND H85 T/S IN SOME
CASES 5C OR COOLER THAN TODAY...HIGHS WILL COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES...CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A 7-10 DEGREE DROP FROM
TODAY...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS COMING WORK WEEK. COOL FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY WILL BE WELL INTO NORTHERN KANSAS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER NORTHWEST
BACK TOWARDS COOLER AIR. CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER NEBRASKA. FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM NEW MEXICO
TO WYOMING WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH TO THE
EAST WILL BRING STRONG STEADY SOUTH FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AS
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE DAKOTAS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 80 AND
DRY. QPF AMOUNTS MAY HAVE TO BE BOOSTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERRUN A TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY/FRONT THOUGH THE PROBABILITY
OF A THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING AT ANY ONE LOCATION IN THE AREA IS
LOW...30 PERCENT OR LOWER. THE AIRPORTS THAT MAY HAVE THUNDER IN
THEIR VICINITY ARE BBW...LBF AND IML. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WITHIN A NARROW TIME WINDOW FROM
01Z TO 04Z. SHORT RANGE RAPID REFRESH MODELS ARE SHOWING A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND COMING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER 02Z. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE SOUTH OF A
BBW-LBF-OGA LINE. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...WE WILL INCLUDE VCTS IN
THE FORECAST FOR LBF FROM 02Z UNTIL 04Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 200339
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1039 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AT H5 CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MUCH
OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. REMNANTS OF ODILLE IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
HURRICANE POLO SEEN IN IR JUST WEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA. RIDGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEAK TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY LOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALSO...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SURFACE LAPS AND GOES DERIVED PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW FAIRLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND DECENT MOISTURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY ONEILL...BROKEN BOW AND
AINSWORTH...SO WE WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE STORMS IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS HAVE THE
SURFACE FRONT AND A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY TO AID THEIR
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF/ALONG IT/S
PATH.  THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT...BUT THIS CAP IS SHOWN TO ERODE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AS FORCING INCREASES WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT.  ATTM...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES AND THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS...WHERE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND BULK SHEAR FOR STORMS...BUT AT THAT...CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD ONLY SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST.  DCAPE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF A STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT THIS
EVENING AS SFC TD/T SPREADS APPROACH 40F ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
SANDHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE ANY STORM SHOULD REMAIN WELL-BEHAVED.  THE
ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF A LLJ WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAWN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A PRODUCT OF BC GUIDANCE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT...LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO EASILY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN DRAINAGE PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE PLATTE RIVER
SYSTEM.  WE CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHWEST...TO NEAR 60S OVER THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
MID 50S  SEEM FINE FOR KLBF AND KVTN.

WITH POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS PRESENT SATURDAY AND H85 T/S IN SOME
CASES 5C OR COOLER THAN TODAY...HIGHS WILL COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES...CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A 7-10 DEGREE DROP FROM
TODAY...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS COMING WORK WEEK. COOL FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY WILL BE WELL INTO NORTHERN KANSAS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER NORTHWEST
BACK TOWARDS COOLER AIR. CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER NEBRASKA. FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM NEW MEXICO
TO WYOMING WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH TO THE
EAST WILL BRING STRONG STEADY SOUTH FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AS
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE DAKOTAS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 80 AND
DRY. QPF AMOUNTS MAY HAVE TO BE BOOSTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERRUN A TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY/FRONT THOUGH THE PROBABILITY
OF A THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING AT ANY ONE LOCATION IN THE AREA IS
LOW...30 PERCENT OR LOWER. THE AIRPORTS THAT MAY HAVE THUNDER IN
THEIR VICINITY ARE BBW...LBF AND IML. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WITHIN A NARROW TIME WINDOW FROM
01Z TO 04Z. SHORT RANGE RAPID REFRESH MODELS ARE SHOWING A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND COMING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER 02Z. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE SOUTH OF A
BBW-LBF-OGA LINE. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...WE WILL INCLUDE VCTS IN
THE FORECAST FOR LBF FROM 02Z UNTIL 04Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 192330
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES WITH IT. FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 MOVING OUT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR LIKELY PRECIP APPEAR TO BE TONIGHT
ALONG/NORTH OF I80. PRECIP AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A SECONDARY REINFORCING COOL FRONT ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
REALLY NO MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT JUST A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW THAT`S CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE WEST COAST NOW WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE ROCKIES.
AFOREMENTIONED RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO FAIRLY MOIST
AREA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADVECT THAT NORTHWARD.
PRECIP CHANCE INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THIS UPPER
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BULK OF MOISTURE PUSHES
EAST BY THURSDAY...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REMAIN...AND BY THEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ENOUGH TO HAVE OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE BY NEXT FRIDAY TO GO DRY UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY
DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

EXPECT THAT PCPN WILL DEVELOP FIRST IN NERN NE AND AFFECT KOFK...
THEN DEVELOP SEWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK. CEILINGS AROUND
3000 FEET OR SO SEEM PSBL AND DID MENTION SOME VSBYS AROUND 4
MILES IN TSRA. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 192330
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES WITH IT. FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 MOVING OUT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR LIKELY PRECIP APPEAR TO BE TONIGHT
ALONG/NORTH OF I80. PRECIP AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A SECONDARY REINFORCING COOL FRONT ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
REALLY NO MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT JUST A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW THAT`S CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE WEST COAST NOW WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE ROCKIES.
AFOREMENTIONED RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO FAIRLY MOIST
AREA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADVECT THAT NORTHWARD.
PRECIP CHANCE INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THIS UPPER
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BULK OF MOISTURE PUSHES
EAST BY THURSDAY...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REMAIN...AND BY THEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ENOUGH TO HAVE OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE BY NEXT FRIDAY TO GO DRY UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY
DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

EXPECT THAT PCPN WILL DEVELOP FIRST IN NERN NE AND AFFECT KOFK...
THEN DEVELOP SEWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK. CEILINGS AROUND
3000 FEET OR SO SEEM PSBL AND DID MENTION SOME VSBYS AROUND 4
MILES IN TSRA. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 192330
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES WITH IT. FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 MOVING OUT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR LIKELY PRECIP APPEAR TO BE TONIGHT
ALONG/NORTH OF I80. PRECIP AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A SECONDARY REINFORCING COOL FRONT ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
REALLY NO MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT JUST A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW THAT`S CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE WEST COAST NOW WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE ROCKIES.
AFOREMENTIONED RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO FAIRLY MOIST
AREA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADVECT THAT NORTHWARD.
PRECIP CHANCE INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THIS UPPER
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BULK OF MOISTURE PUSHES
EAST BY THURSDAY...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REMAIN...AND BY THEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ENOUGH TO HAVE OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE BY NEXT FRIDAY TO GO DRY UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY
DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

EXPECT THAT PCPN WILL DEVELOP FIRST IN NERN NE AND AFFECT KOFK...
THEN DEVELOP SEWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK. CEILINGS AROUND
3000 FEET OR SO SEEM PSBL AND DID MENTION SOME VSBYS AROUND 4
MILES IN TSRA. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 192330
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES WITH IT. FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 MOVING OUT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR LIKELY PRECIP APPEAR TO BE TONIGHT
ALONG/NORTH OF I80. PRECIP AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A SECONDARY REINFORCING COOL FRONT ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
REALLY NO MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT JUST A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW THAT`S CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE WEST COAST NOW WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE ROCKIES.
AFOREMENTIONED RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO FAIRLY MOIST
AREA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADVECT THAT NORTHWARD.
PRECIP CHANCE INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THIS UPPER
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BULK OF MOISTURE PUSHES
EAST BY THURSDAY...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REMAIN...AND BY THEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ENOUGH TO HAVE OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE BY NEXT FRIDAY TO GO DRY UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY
DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

EXPECT THAT PCPN WILL DEVELOP FIRST IN NERN NE AND AFFECT KOFK...
THEN DEVELOP SEWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK. CEILINGS AROUND
3000 FEET OR SO SEEM PSBL AND DID MENTION SOME VSBYS AROUND 4
MILES IN TSRA. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
THE FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KGID 192323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE NRN USA. AN
EMBEDDED WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF WAS OVER MT/WY AND
PROGRESSING SE. THIS TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL PASS THRU HERE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING. NW FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: A CANADIAN COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THRU WY
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12AM-12PM. SW CANADA HIGH PRES WILL
PRESS INTO MT TOMORROW AND BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY/BREEZY AND HOT IN MANY AREAS /AT
LEAST 90F/. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS AT 2 PM AS THIS THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVER- PERFORMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE JUST HRS PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 6-7 PM.

GRI WILL HIT 90F BEFORE 5 PM. THIS IS THE HOTTEST TEMP SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT AT LEAST 90 WAS AUG 20TH.

TONIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION /WHEN AND
WHERE/. A CAP IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO
NE NEB. GENERALLY LOW/SPOTTY MODEL QPF SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED /IE - ISOLATED/ AND TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO
S- CNTRL NEB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE
OVER ERN NEB AND THE WRN END COULD BRUSH AREAS E OF HWY 281.

MUCAPE VIA THE 15Z SREF IS FCST NEAR 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GENERALLY 20-25 KTS...ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM
STRUCTURES. AT WORST THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT QUARTER SIZE HAIL
"IF" A SEVERE STORM CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SUPPORT ALOFT...TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AND DO MUCH. GENERALLY
DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAILERS ARE EXPECTED. SO WATCH FOR SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS.

USED WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE 3-BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE SOURCES OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS FOR LOW TEMPS. THIS WILL ACCT FOR A LITTLE EXTRA
RADIATING FROM LXN-ODX WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF.

SAT: OVERALL A NICE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ON-GOING IN
THE MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY.

WHILE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA...THE 850 MB FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NRN KS BORDER ALONG WITH RICH DEWPOINTS. SO
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM OR TWO PRIMARILY OVER N-CNTRL
KS. MLCAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
20-25 KTS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS VERY
LOW...CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND..TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. BEYOND MONDAY...A COOLER
WETTER REGIME WILL SETTLE IN AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC (THIS ECMWF SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND/RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS).
WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH THE
MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
EVENTUALLY IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH TIME (THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHCS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE LATTER TIME FRAMES/END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE
OF A SW FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION WITH SFC OR H85 FRONT. MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH. HAVE INSERTED LOW BUFFER POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BOUNDARY POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.

A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. IN
THE COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND IN INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN W/E. AS STATED EARLIER...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS A LOWER LAYER OF CLOUDS NEAR 7000FT
AGL...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY
OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO
THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST
PART THROUGH 03Z...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
18KTS. THE PASSAGE OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY WIND EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PRESENT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS IN BOTH TAFS 03-12Z AS A RESULT. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 192323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE NRN USA. AN
EMBEDDED WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF WAS OVER MT/WY AND
PROGRESSING SE. THIS TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL PASS THRU HERE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING. NW FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: A CANADIAN COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THRU WY
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12AM-12PM. SW CANADA HIGH PRES WILL
PRESS INTO MT TOMORROW AND BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY/BREEZY AND HOT IN MANY AREAS /AT
LEAST 90F/. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS AT 2 PM AS THIS THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVER- PERFORMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE JUST HRS PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 6-7 PM.

GRI WILL HIT 90F BEFORE 5 PM. THIS IS THE HOTTEST TEMP SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT AT LEAST 90 WAS AUG 20TH.

TONIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION /WHEN AND
WHERE/. A CAP IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO
NE NEB. GENERALLY LOW/SPOTTY MODEL QPF SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED /IE - ISOLATED/ AND TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO
S- CNTRL NEB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE
OVER ERN NEB AND THE WRN END COULD BRUSH AREAS E OF HWY 281.

MUCAPE VIA THE 15Z SREF IS FCST NEAR 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GENERALLY 20-25 KTS...ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM
STRUCTURES. AT WORST THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT QUARTER SIZE HAIL
"IF" A SEVERE STORM CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SUPPORT ALOFT...TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AND DO MUCH. GENERALLY
DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAILERS ARE EXPECTED. SO WATCH FOR SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS.

USED WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE 3-BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE SOURCES OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS FOR LOW TEMPS. THIS WILL ACCT FOR A LITTLE EXTRA
RADIATING FROM LXN-ODX WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF.

SAT: OVERALL A NICE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ON-GOING IN
THE MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY.

WHILE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA...THE 850 MB FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NRN KS BORDER ALONG WITH RICH DEWPOINTS. SO
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM OR TWO PRIMARILY OVER N-CNTRL
KS. MLCAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
20-25 KTS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS VERY
LOW...CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND..TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. BEYOND MONDAY...A COOLER
WETTER REGIME WILL SETTLE IN AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC (THIS ECMWF SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND/RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS).
WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH THE
MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
EVENTUALLY IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH TIME (THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHCS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE LATTER TIME FRAMES/END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE
OF A SW FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION WITH SFC OR H85 FRONT. MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH. HAVE INSERTED LOW BUFFER POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BOUNDARY POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.

A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. IN
THE COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND IN INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN W/E. AS STATED EARLIER...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS A LOWER LAYER OF CLOUDS NEAR 7000FT
AGL...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY
OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO
THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST
PART THROUGH 03Z...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
18KTS. THE PASSAGE OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY WIND EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PRESENT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS IN BOTH TAFS 03-12Z AS A RESULT. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 192323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE NRN USA. AN
EMBEDDED WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF WAS OVER MT/WY AND
PROGRESSING SE. THIS TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL PASS THRU HERE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING. NW FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: A CANADIAN COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THRU WY
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12AM-12PM. SW CANADA HIGH PRES WILL
PRESS INTO MT TOMORROW AND BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY/BREEZY AND HOT IN MANY AREAS /AT
LEAST 90F/. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS AT 2 PM AS THIS THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVER- PERFORMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE JUST HRS PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 6-7 PM.

GRI WILL HIT 90F BEFORE 5 PM. THIS IS THE HOTTEST TEMP SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT AT LEAST 90 WAS AUG 20TH.

TONIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION /WHEN AND
WHERE/. A CAP IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO
NE NEB. GENERALLY LOW/SPOTTY MODEL QPF SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED /IE - ISOLATED/ AND TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO
S- CNTRL NEB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE
OVER ERN NEB AND THE WRN END COULD BRUSH AREAS E OF HWY 281.

MUCAPE VIA THE 15Z SREF IS FCST NEAR 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GENERALLY 20-25 KTS...ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM
STRUCTURES. AT WORST THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT QUARTER SIZE HAIL
"IF" A SEVERE STORM CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SUPPORT ALOFT...TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AND DO MUCH. GENERALLY
DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAILERS ARE EXPECTED. SO WATCH FOR SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS.

USED WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE 3-BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE SOURCES OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS FOR LOW TEMPS. THIS WILL ACCT FOR A LITTLE EXTRA
RADIATING FROM LXN-ODX WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF.

SAT: OVERALL A NICE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ON-GOING IN
THE MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY.

WHILE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA...THE 850 MB FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NRN KS BORDER ALONG WITH RICH DEWPOINTS. SO
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM OR TWO PRIMARILY OVER N-CNTRL
KS. MLCAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
20-25 KTS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS VERY
LOW...CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND..TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. BEYOND MONDAY...A COOLER
WETTER REGIME WILL SETTLE IN AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC (THIS ECMWF SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND/RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS).
WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH THE
MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
EVENTUALLY IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH TIME (THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHCS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE LATTER TIME FRAMES/END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE
OF A SW FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION WITH SFC OR H85 FRONT. MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH. HAVE INSERTED LOW BUFFER POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BOUNDARY POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.

A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. IN
THE COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND IN INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN W/E. AS STATED EARLIER...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS A LOWER LAYER OF CLOUDS NEAR 7000FT
AGL...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY
OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO
THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST
PART THROUGH 03Z...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
18KTS. THE PASSAGE OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY WIND EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PRESENT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS IN BOTH TAFS 03-12Z AS A RESULT. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 192323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE NRN USA. AN
EMBEDDED WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF WAS OVER MT/WY AND
PROGRESSING SE. THIS TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL PASS THRU HERE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING. NW FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: A CANADIAN COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THRU WY
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12AM-12PM. SW CANADA HIGH PRES WILL
PRESS INTO MT TOMORROW AND BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY/BREEZY AND HOT IN MANY AREAS /AT
LEAST 90F/. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS AT 2 PM AS THIS THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVER- PERFORMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE JUST HRS PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 6-7 PM.

GRI WILL HIT 90F BEFORE 5 PM. THIS IS THE HOTTEST TEMP SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT AT LEAST 90 WAS AUG 20TH.

TONIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION /WHEN AND
WHERE/. A CAP IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO
NE NEB. GENERALLY LOW/SPOTTY MODEL QPF SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED /IE - ISOLATED/ AND TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO
S- CNTRL NEB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE
OVER ERN NEB AND THE WRN END COULD BRUSH AREAS E OF HWY 281.

MUCAPE VIA THE 15Z SREF IS FCST NEAR 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GENERALLY 20-25 KTS...ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM
STRUCTURES. AT WORST THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT QUARTER SIZE HAIL
"IF" A SEVERE STORM CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SUPPORT ALOFT...TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AND DO MUCH. GENERALLY
DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAILERS ARE EXPECTED. SO WATCH FOR SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS.

USED WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE 3-BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE SOURCES OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS FOR LOW TEMPS. THIS WILL ACCT FOR A LITTLE EXTRA
RADIATING FROM LXN-ODX WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF.

SAT: OVERALL A NICE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ON-GOING IN
THE MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY.

WHILE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA...THE 850 MB FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NRN KS BORDER ALONG WITH RICH DEWPOINTS. SO
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM OR TWO PRIMARILY OVER N-CNTRL
KS. MLCAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
20-25 KTS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS VERY
LOW...CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND..TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. BEYOND MONDAY...A COOLER
WETTER REGIME WILL SETTLE IN AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC (THIS ECMWF SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND/RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS).
WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH THE
MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
EVENTUALLY IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH TIME (THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHCS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE LATTER TIME FRAMES/END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE
OF A SW FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION WITH SFC OR H85 FRONT. MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH. HAVE INSERTED LOW BUFFER POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BOUNDARY POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.

A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. IN
THE COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND IN INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN W/E. AS STATED EARLIER...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS A LOWER LAYER OF CLOUDS NEAR 7000FT
AGL...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY
OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO
THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST
PART THROUGH 03Z...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
18KTS. THE PASSAGE OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY WIND EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~40KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PRESENT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS IN BOTH TAFS 03-12Z AS A RESULT. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 192321
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AT H5 CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MUCH
OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. REMNANTS OF ODILLE IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
HURRICANE POLO SEEN IN IR JUST WEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA. RIDGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEAK TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY LOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF/ALONG IT/S
PATH.  THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT...BUT THIS CAP IS SHOWN TO ERODE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AS FORCING INCREASES WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT.  ATTM...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES AND THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS...WHERE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND BULK SHEAR FOR STORMS...BUT AT THAT...CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD ONLY SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST.  DCAPE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF A STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT THIS
EVENING AS SFC TD/T SPREADS APPROACH 40F ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
SANDHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE ANY STORM SHOULD REMAIN WELL-BEHAVED.  THE
ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF A LLJ WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAWN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A PRODUCT OF BC GUIDANCE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT...LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO EASILY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN DRAINAGE PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE PLATTE RIVER
SYSTEM.  WE CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHWEST...TO NEAR 60S OVER THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
MID 50S  SEEM FINE FOR KLBF AND KVTN.

WITH POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS PRESENT SATURDAY AND H85 T/S IN SOME
CASES 5C OR COOLER THAN TODAY...HIGHS WILL COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES...CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A 7-10 DEGREE DROP FROM
TODAY...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS COMING WORK WEEK. COOL FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY WILL BE WELL INTO NORTHERN KANSAS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER NORTHWEST
BACK TOWARDS COOLER AIR. CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER NEBRASKA. FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM NEW MEXICO
TO WYOMING WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH TO THE
EAST WILL BRING STRONG STEADY SOUTH FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AS
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE DAKOTAS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 80 AND
DRY. QPF AMOUNTS MAY HAVE TO BE BOOSTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERRUN A TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY/FRONT THOUGH THE PROBABILITY
OF A THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING AT ANY ONE LOCATION IN THE AREA IS
LOW...30 PERCENT OR LOWER. THE AIRPORTS THAT MAY HAVE THUNDER IN
THEIR VICINITY ARE BBW...LBF AND IML. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WITHIN A NARROW TIME WINDOW FROM
01Z TO 04Z. SHORT RANGE RAPID REFRESH MODELS ARE SHOWING A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND COMING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER 02Z. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE SOUTH OF A
BBW-LBF-OGA LINE. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...WE WILL INCLUDE VCTS IN
THE FORECAST FOR LBF FROM 02Z UNTIL 04Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KOAX 192000
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES WITH IT. FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 MOVING OUT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR LIKELY PRECIP APPEAR TO BE TONIGHT
ALONG/NORTH OF I80. PRECIP AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A SECONDARY REINFORCING COOL FRONT ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
REALLY NO MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT JUST A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW THAT`S CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE WEST COAST NOW WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE ROCKIES.
AFOREMENTIONED RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO FAIRLY MOIST
AREA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADVECT THAT NORTHWARD.
PRECIP CHANCE INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THIS UPPER
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BULK OF MOISTURE PUSHES
EAST BY THURSDAY...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REMAIN...AND BY THEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ENOUGH TO HAVE OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE BY NEXT FRIDAY TO GO DRY UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY
DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 15
TO 20KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 25 TO 30KTS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY
BE NEAR KOFK BY 02-04Z...AND INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT THE
TAF SITES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT DOES
SLOW DOWN...HOWEVER THE FORCING WEAKENS...SO DO NOT HAVE A MENTION
AFTER 11Z AT KLNK/KOMA.  COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTING DEPENDING ON HOW IT EVOLVES. THE SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN
AS THE WIND SHIFT APPROACHES THEN EVENTUALLY TURNS TO THE NW
6-12KTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 192000
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES WITH IT. FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH PRECIP ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 MOVING OUT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR LIKELY PRECIP APPEAR TO BE TONIGHT
ALONG/NORTH OF I80. PRECIP AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A SECONDARY REINFORCING COOL FRONT ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
REALLY NO MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT JUST A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW THAT`S CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE WEST COAST NOW WILL EVENTUALLY CROSS THE ROCKIES.
AFOREMENTIONED RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO FAIRLY MOIST
AREA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADVECT THAT NORTHWARD.
PRECIP CHANCE INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THIS UPPER
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BULK OF MOISTURE PUSHES
EAST BY THURSDAY...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REMAIN...AND BY THEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ENOUGH TO HAVE OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE BY NEXT FRIDAY TO GO DRY UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY
DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 15
TO 20KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 25 TO 30KTS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY
BE NEAR KOFK BY 02-04Z...AND INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT THE
TAF SITES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT DOES
SLOW DOWN...HOWEVER THE FORCING WEAKENS...SO DO NOT HAVE A MENTION
AFTER 11Z AT KLNK/KOMA.  COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTING DEPENDING ON HOW IT EVOLVES. THE SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN
AS THE WIND SHIFT APPROACHES THEN EVENTUALLY TURNS TO THE NW
6-12KTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 191951
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
251 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AT H5 CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MUCH
OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. REMNANTS OF ODILLE IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
HURRICANE POLO SEEN IN IR JUST WEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA. RIDGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEAK TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY LOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF/ALONG IT/S
PATH.  THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT...BUT THIS CAP IS SHOWN TO ERODE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AS FORCING INCREASES WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT.  ATTM...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES AND THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS...WHERE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND BULK SHEAR FOR STORMS...BUT AT THAT...CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD ONLY SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST.  DCAPE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF A STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT THIS
EVENING AS SFC TD/T SPREADS APPROACH 40F ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
SANDHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE ANY STORM SHOULD REMAIN WELL-BEHAVED.  THE
ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF A LLJ WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAWN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A PRODUCT OF BC GUIDANCE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT...LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO EASILY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN DRAINAGE PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE PLATTE RIVER
SYSTEM.  WE CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHWEST...TO NEAR 60S OVER THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
MID 50S  SEEM FINE FOR KLBF AND KVTN.

WITH POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS PRESENT SATURDAY AND H85 T/S IN SOME
CASES 5C OR COOLER THAN TODAY...HIGHS WILL COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES...CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A 7-10 DEGREE DROP FROM
TODAY...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS COMING WORK WEEK. COOL FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY WILL BE WELL INTO NORTHERN KANSAS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER NORTHWEST
BACK TOWARDS COOLER AIR. CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER NEBRASKA. FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM NEW MEXICO
TO WYOMING WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH TO THE
EAST WILL BRING STRONG STEADY SOUTH FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AS
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE DAKOTAS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 80 AND
DRY. QPF AMOUNTS MAY HAVE TO BE BOOSTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING AT BOTH KLBF AND
KVTN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT IT WAS BEST TO USE A PERSISTENCE
/FROM PREVIOUS TAF/ FORECAST APPROACH AND RELY HEAVILY ON THE THE
NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS OUTPUT. THE CAM MODELS DO
INDICATE STORMS BREACHING A STOUT CAP EARLY THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE KLBF TERMINAL...BUT REMAINING
EAST AND SOUTH OF KVTN. CURRENTLY QUESTIONING THIS HOWEVER AS THE
BEST FOCUS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN
THE PROB 30 GROUP FOR THIS EVENING AT KLBF. OTHERWISE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THEREAFTER WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JACOBS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 191951
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
251 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AT H5 CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MUCH
OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. REMNANTS OF ODILLE IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
HURRICANE POLO SEEN IN IR JUST WEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA. RIDGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEAK TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY LOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF/ALONG IT/S
PATH.  THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT...BUT THIS CAP IS SHOWN TO ERODE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AS FORCING INCREASES WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT.  ATTM...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES AND THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS...WHERE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND BULK SHEAR FOR STORMS...BUT AT THAT...CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD ONLY SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST.  DCAPE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF A STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT THIS
EVENING AS SFC TD/T SPREADS APPROACH 40F ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
SANDHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE ANY STORM SHOULD REMAIN WELL-BEHAVED.  THE
ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF A LLJ WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAWN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A PRODUCT OF BC GUIDANCE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT...LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO EASILY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN DRAINAGE PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE PLATTE RIVER
SYSTEM.  WE CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHWEST...TO NEAR 60S OVER THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
MID 50S  SEEM FINE FOR KLBF AND KVTN.

WITH POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS PRESENT SATURDAY AND H85 T/S IN SOME
CASES 5C OR COOLER THAN TODAY...HIGHS WILL COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES...CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A 7-10 DEGREE DROP FROM
TODAY...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS COMING WORK WEEK. COOL FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY WILL BE WELL INTO NORTHERN KANSAS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER NORTHWEST
BACK TOWARDS COOLER AIR. CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER NEBRASKA. FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM NEW MEXICO
TO WYOMING WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH TO THE
EAST WILL BRING STRONG STEADY SOUTH FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AS
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE DAKOTAS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 80 AND
DRY. QPF AMOUNTS MAY HAVE TO BE BOOSTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING AT BOTH KLBF AND
KVTN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT IT WAS BEST TO USE A PERSISTENCE
/FROM PREVIOUS TAF/ FORECAST APPROACH AND RELY HEAVILY ON THE THE
NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS OUTPUT. THE CAM MODELS DO
INDICATE STORMS BREACHING A STOUT CAP EARLY THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE KLBF TERMINAL...BUT REMAINING
EAST AND SOUTH OF KVTN. CURRENTLY QUESTIONING THIS HOWEVER AS THE
BEST FOCUS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN
THE PROB 30 GROUP FOR THIS EVENING AT KLBF. OTHERWISE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THEREAFTER WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KGID 191950
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...HOTTEST DAY SINCE AUG 20TH TODAY AND A COOL FRONT WILL SLIP
THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW TSTMS THEN COOLER
TOMORROW AND MUCH COOLER BEGINNING SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE NRN USA. AN
EMBEDDED WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF WAS OVER MT/WY AND
PROGRESSING SE. THIS TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL PASS THRU HERE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING. NW FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: A CANADIAN COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THRU WY
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12AM-12PM. SW CANADA HIGH PRES WILL
PRESS INTO MT TOMORROW AND BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY/BREEZY AND HOT IN MANY AREAS /AT
LEAST 90F/. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS AT 2 PM AS THIS THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVER- PERFORMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE JUST HRS PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 6-7 PM.

GRI WILL HIT 90F BEFORE 5 PM. THIS IS THE HOTTEST TEMP SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT AT LEAST 90 WAS AUG 20TH.

TONIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION /WHEN AND
WHERE/. A CAP IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO
NE NEB. GENERALLY LOW/SPOTTY MODEL QPF SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED /IE - ISOLATED/ AND TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO
S- CNTRL NEB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE
OVER ERN NEB AND THE WRN END COULD BRUSH AREAS E OF HWY 281.

MUCAPE VIA THE 15Z SREF IS FCST NEAR 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GENERALLY 20-25 KTS...ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM
STRUCTURES. AT WORST THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT QUARTER SIZE HAIL
"IF" A SEVERE STORM CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SUPPORT ALOFT...TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AND DO MUCH. GENERALLY
DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAILERS ARE EXPECTED. SO WATCH FOR SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS.

USED WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE 3-BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE SOURCES OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS FOR LOW TEMPS. THIS WILL ACCT FOR A LITTLE EXTRA
RADIATING FROM LXN-ODX WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF.

SAT: OVERALL A NICE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ON-GOING IN
THE MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY.

WHILE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA...THE 850 MB FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NRN KS BORDER ALONG WITH RICH DEWPOINTS. SO
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM OR TWO PRIMARILY OVER N-CNTRL
KS. MLCAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
20-25 KTS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS VERY
LOW...CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND..TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. BEYOND MONDAY...A COOLER
WETTER REGIME WILL SETTLE IN AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC (THIS ECMWF SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND/RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS).
WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH THE
MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
EVENTUALLY IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH TIME (THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHCS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE LATTER TIME FRAMES/END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE
OF A SW FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION WITH SFC OR H85 FRONT. MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH. HAVE INSERTED LOW BUFFER POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BOUNDARY POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.

A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. IN
THE COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND IN INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN W/E. AS STATED EARLIER...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SOME SPREADS OF CIRRUS. S-SSW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUST UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDING 23Z-00Z. SSW WINDS WILL
AVERAGE JUST UNDER 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT TO SW. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF A TEMPO TSTM 04Z-10Z WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
PROBABILITY NO HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO
JUST 6K FT SCT CLOUDS /CB/ WAS INDICATED. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS TO
NNW UNDER 10 KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS LIKELY
JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 191950
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...HOTTEST DAY SINCE AUG 20TH TODAY AND A COOL FRONT WILL SLIP
THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW TSTMS THEN COOLER
TOMORROW AND MUCH COOLER BEGINNING SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE NRN USA. AN
EMBEDDED WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF WAS OVER MT/WY AND
PROGRESSING SE. THIS TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL PASS THRU HERE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING. NW FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: A CANADIAN COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THRU WY
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12AM-12PM. SW CANADA HIGH PRES WILL
PRESS INTO MT TOMORROW AND BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY/BREEZY AND HOT IN MANY AREAS /AT
LEAST 90F/. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS AT 2 PM AS THIS THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVER- PERFORMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE JUST HRS PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 6-7 PM.

GRI WILL HIT 90F BEFORE 5 PM. THIS IS THE HOTTEST TEMP SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT AT LEAST 90 WAS AUG 20TH.

TONIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION /WHEN AND
WHERE/. A CAP IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO
NE NEB. GENERALLY LOW/SPOTTY MODEL QPF SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED /IE - ISOLATED/ AND TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO
S- CNTRL NEB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE
OVER ERN NEB AND THE WRN END COULD BRUSH AREAS E OF HWY 281.

MUCAPE VIA THE 15Z SREF IS FCST NEAR 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GENERALLY 20-25 KTS...ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM
STRUCTURES. AT WORST THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT QUARTER SIZE HAIL
"IF" A SEVERE STORM CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SUPPORT ALOFT...TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AND DO MUCH. GENERALLY
DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAILERS ARE EXPECTED. SO WATCH FOR SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS.

USED WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE 3-BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE SOURCES OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS FOR LOW TEMPS. THIS WILL ACCT FOR A LITTLE EXTRA
RADIATING FROM LXN-ODX WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF.

SAT: OVERALL A NICE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ON-GOING IN
THE MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY.

WHILE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA...THE 850 MB FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NRN KS BORDER ALONG WITH RICH DEWPOINTS. SO
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM OR TWO PRIMARILY OVER N-CNTRL
KS. MLCAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
20-25 KTS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS VERY
LOW...CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND..TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. BEYOND MONDAY...A COOLER
WETTER REGIME WILL SETTLE IN AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC (THIS ECMWF SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND/RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS).
WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH THE
MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
EVENTUALLY IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH TIME (THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHCS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE LATTER TIME FRAMES/END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE
OF A SW FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION WITH SFC OR H85 FRONT. MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH. HAVE INSERTED LOW BUFFER POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BOUNDARY POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.

A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. IN
THE COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND IN INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN W/E. AS STATED EARLIER...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SOME SPREADS OF CIRRUS. S-SSW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUST UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDING 23Z-00Z. SSW WINDS WILL
AVERAGE JUST UNDER 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT TO SW. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF A TEMPO TSTM 04Z-10Z WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
PROBABILITY NO HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO
JUST 6K FT SCT CLOUDS /CB/ WAS INDICATED. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS TO
NNW UNDER 10 KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS LIKELY
JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 191950
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...HOTTEST DAY SINCE AUG 20TH TODAY AND A COOL FRONT WILL SLIP
THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW TSTMS THEN COOLER
TOMORROW AND MUCH COOLER BEGINNING SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE NRN USA. AN
EMBEDDED WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF WAS OVER MT/WY AND
PROGRESSING SE. THIS TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL PASS THRU HERE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING. NW FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: A CANADIAN COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THRU WY
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12AM-12PM. SW CANADA HIGH PRES WILL
PRESS INTO MT TOMORROW AND BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY/BREEZY AND HOT IN MANY AREAS /AT
LEAST 90F/. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS AT 2 PM AS THIS THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVER- PERFORMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE JUST HRS PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 6-7 PM.

GRI WILL HIT 90F BEFORE 5 PM. THIS IS THE HOTTEST TEMP SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT AT LEAST 90 WAS AUG 20TH.

TONIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION /WHEN AND
WHERE/. A CAP IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO
NE NEB. GENERALLY LOW/SPOTTY MODEL QPF SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED /IE - ISOLATED/ AND TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO
S- CNTRL NEB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE
OVER ERN NEB AND THE WRN END COULD BRUSH AREAS E OF HWY 281.

MUCAPE VIA THE 15Z SREF IS FCST NEAR 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GENERALLY 20-25 KTS...ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM
STRUCTURES. AT WORST THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT QUARTER SIZE HAIL
"IF" A SEVERE STORM CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SUPPORT ALOFT...TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AND DO MUCH. GENERALLY
DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAILERS ARE EXPECTED. SO WATCH FOR SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS.

USED WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE 3-BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE SOURCES OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS FOR LOW TEMPS. THIS WILL ACCT FOR A LITTLE EXTRA
RADIATING FROM LXN-ODX WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF.

SAT: OVERALL A NICE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ON-GOING IN
THE MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY.

WHILE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA...THE 850 MB FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NRN KS BORDER ALONG WITH RICH DEWPOINTS. SO
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM OR TWO PRIMARILY OVER N-CNTRL
KS. MLCAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
20-25 KTS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS VERY
LOW...CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND..TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. BEYOND MONDAY...A COOLER
WETTER REGIME WILL SETTLE IN AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC (THIS ECMWF SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND/RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS).
WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH THE
MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
EVENTUALLY IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH TIME (THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHCS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE LATTER TIME FRAMES/END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE
OF A SW FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION WITH SFC OR H85 FRONT. MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH. HAVE INSERTED LOW BUFFER POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BOUNDARY POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.

A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. IN
THE COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND IN INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN W/E. AS STATED EARLIER...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SOME SPREADS OF CIRRUS. S-SSW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUST UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDING 23Z-00Z. SSW WINDS WILL
AVERAGE JUST UNDER 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT TO SW. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF A TEMPO TSTM 04Z-10Z WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
PROBABILITY NO HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO
JUST 6K FT SCT CLOUDS /CB/ WAS INDICATED. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS TO
NNW UNDER 10 KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS LIKELY
JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 191950
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...HOTTEST DAY SINCE AUG 20TH TODAY AND A COOL FRONT WILL SLIP
THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW TSTMS THEN COOLER
TOMORROW AND MUCH COOLER BEGINNING SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALOFT: THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER THE NRN USA. AN
EMBEDDED WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF WAS OVER MT/WY AND
PROGRESSING SE. THIS TAIL END OF THIS TROF WILL PASS THRU HERE
TONIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING. NW FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD TOMORROW IN ITS WAKE.

SURFACE: A CANADIAN COOL FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE DAKOTAS THRU WY
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FRONT WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND
CROSS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 12AM-12PM. SW CANADA HIGH PRES WILL
PRESS INTO MT TOMORROW AND BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY/BREEZY AND HOT IN MANY AREAS /AT
LEAST 90F/. HAD TO RAISE HIGHS AT 2 PM AS THIS THERMAL RIDGE IS
OVER- PERFORMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE JUST HRS PRIOR TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 6-7 PM.

GRI WILL HIT 90F BEFORE 5 PM. THIS IS THE HOTTEST TEMP SO FAR THIS
MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT AT LEAST 90 WAS AUG 20TH.

TONIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION /WHEN AND
WHERE/. A CAP IS IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE SANDHILLS INTO
NE NEB. GENERALLY LOW/SPOTTY MODEL QPF SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED /IE - ISOLATED/ AND TSTMS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE INTO
S- CNTRL NEB UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS WITH
EXPLICIT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE
OVER ERN NEB AND THE WRN END COULD BRUSH AREAS E OF HWY 281.

MUCAPE VIA THE 15Z SREF IS FCST NEAR 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE GENERALLY 20-25 KTS...ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL STORM
STRUCTURES. AT WORST THIS WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT QUARTER SIZE HAIL
"IF" A SEVERE STORM CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
SUPPORT ALOFT...TSTMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM AND DO MUCH. GENERALLY
DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAILERS ARE EXPECTED. SO WATCH FOR SPECIAL WX
STATEMENTS.

USED WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE 3-BEST VERIFYING GUIDANCE SOURCES OVER
THE LAST 30 DAYS FOR LOW TEMPS. THIS WILL ACCT FOR A LITTLE EXTRA
RADIATING FROM LXN-ODX WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITHIN THE
FRONTAL TROF.

SAT: OVERALL A NICE DAY AND DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE N. NOT
QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ON-GOING IN
THE MORNING...BUT THE LACK OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN THE USUAL
DIURNAL MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY.

WHILE THE SFC FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA...THE 850 MB FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE NRN KS BORDER ALONG WITH RICH DEWPOINTS. SO
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TSTM OR TWO PRIMARILY OVER N-CNTRL
KS. MLCAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
20-25 KTS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS VERY
LOW...CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND..TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK. BEYOND MONDAY...A COOLER
WETTER REGIME WILL SETTLE IN AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND
WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE KICKED OUT AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC (THIS ECMWF SCENARIO WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND/RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS).
WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WITH THE
MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
EVENTUALLY IS DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN TROUGH WITH TIME (THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LONGER DURATION FOR PCPN CHCS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE WENT WITH ENSEMBLE
APPROACH FOR THE LATTER TIME FRAMES/END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE
OF A SW FLOW ALOFT OR RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHES SOUTH
TONIGHT/SATURDAY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION WITH SFC OR H85 FRONT. MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...JUST
CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A STORM UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH. HAVE INSERTED LOW BUFFER POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BOUNDARY POSITION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM IN PRESENCE OF
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT SHEAR IS WEAK.

A 1024MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. IN
THE COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC DPS DROP INTO THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD AGAIN. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND IN INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN W/E. AS STATED EARLIER...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW
DAYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK WITH TEMPS TRENDING BACK UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SOME SPREADS OF CIRRUS. S-SSW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUST UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDING 23Z-00Z. SSW WINDS WILL
AVERAGE JUST UNDER 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT TO SW. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF A TEMPO TSTM 04Z-10Z WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
PROBABILITY NO HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO
JUST 6K FT SCT CLOUDS /CB/ WAS INDICATED. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS TO
NNW UNDER 10 KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS LIKELY
JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 191859
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
159 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS MOST PLACES. GRI IS PRETTY
MUCH GUARANTEED TO HIT 90F. THIS WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY SO FAR
THIS MONTH. THE LAST TIME GRI HIT 90 WAS AUG 20TH.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

I DID END UP RAISING HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGS ALONG THE NEB HWY
283 CORRIDOR JUST SO THE FCST EXPLICITLY STATES HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S. 91 IS NOW FCST AT EAR. BASED ON THIS...DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO
NUDGED LOWER DUE TO DEEPER MIXING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS HAS
BEEN FOR SKYCOVER...TO DECREASE TO NEARLY CLEAR ALONG AND W OF HWY
281 AND TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS IN THE STRATUS BETWEEN 281 AND HWY
81. TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BANK OF STRATUS
DISSIPATING/MIXING OUT AND THE FCST WAS ADJUSTED TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TIMING.

OVERALL...A VERY WARM/BRZY DAY. THIS WILL BE WARMEST DAY SINCE SEP
8TH. AFTER DIAGNOSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SEE NO REASON TO MODIFY
THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE 4AM FCST. THE WARM NOSE AT 840 MB AT LBF
WAS 25C! SO AREAS W OF HWY 283 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 90F
THIS AFTERNOON.

88D VELOCITY DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL. THE EXPANDING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY NOT TAP INTO THIS BEFORE SPEEDS COME
DOWN...BUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN GUSTING 20-30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SOME SPREADS OF CIRRUS. S-SSW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUST UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDING 23Z-00Z. SSW WINDS WILL
AVERAGE JUST UNDER 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT TO SW. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF A TEMPO TSTM 04Z-10Z WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
PROBABILITY NO HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO
JUST 6K FT SCT CLOUDS /CB/ WAS INDICATED. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS TO
NNW UNDER 10 KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS LIKELY
JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 191750
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

I DID END UP RAISING HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGS ALONG THE NEB HWY
283 CORRIDOR JUST SO THE FCST EXPLICITLY STATES HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S. 91 IS NOW FCST AT EAR. BASED ON THIS...DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO
NUDGED LOWER DUE TO DEEPER MIXING.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS HAS
BEEN FOR SKYCOVER...TO DECREASE TO NEARLY CLEAR ALONG AND W OF HWY
281 AND TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS IN THE STRATUS BETWEEN 281 AND HWY
81. TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BANK OF STRATUS
DISSIPATING/MIXING OUT AND THE FCST WAS ADJUSTED TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TIMING.

OVERALL...A VERY WARM/BRZY DAY. THIS WILL BE WARMEST DAY SINCE SEP
8TH. AFTER DIAGNOSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SEE NO REASON TO MODIFY
THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE 4AM FCST. THE WARM NOSE AT 840 MB AT LBF
WAS 25C! SO AREAS W OF HWY 283 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 90F
THIS AFTERNOON.

88D VELOCITY DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL. THE EXPANDING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY NOT TAP INTO THIS BEFORE SPEEDS COME
DOWN...BUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN GUSTING 20-30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SOME SPREADS OF CIRRUS. S-SSW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUST UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDING 23Z-00Z. SSW WINDS WILL
AVERAGE JUST UNDER 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT TO SW. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF A TEMPO TSTM 04Z-10Z WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
PROBABILITY NO HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO
JUST 6K FT SCT CLOUDS /CB/ WAS INDICATED. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS TO
NNW UNDER 10 KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS LIKELY
JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 191750
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

I DID END UP RAISING HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGS ALONG THE NEB HWY
283 CORRIDOR JUST SO THE FCST EXPLICITLY STATES HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S. 91 IS NOW FCST AT EAR. BASED ON THIS...DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO
NUDGED LOWER DUE TO DEEPER MIXING.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS HAS
BEEN FOR SKYCOVER...TO DECREASE TO NEARLY CLEAR ALONG AND W OF HWY
281 AND TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS IN THE STRATUS BETWEEN 281 AND HWY
81. TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BANK OF STRATUS
DISSIPATING/MIXING OUT AND THE FCST WAS ADJUSTED TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TIMING.

OVERALL...A VERY WARM/BRZY DAY. THIS WILL BE WARMEST DAY SINCE SEP
8TH. AFTER DIAGNOSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SEE NO REASON TO MODIFY
THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE 4AM FCST. THE WARM NOSE AT 840 MB AT LBF
WAS 25C! SO AREAS W OF HWY 283 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 90F
THIS AFTERNOON.

88D VELOCITY DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL. THE EXPANDING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY NOT TAP INTO THIS BEFORE SPEEDS COME
DOWN...BUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN GUSTING 20-30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SOME SPREADS OF CIRRUS. S-SSW WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY. ONE-TIME PEAK GUST UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME GUSTINESS ENDING 23Z-00Z. SSW WINDS WILL
AVERAGE JUST UNDER 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT TO SW. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF A TEMPO TSTM 04Z-10Z WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
PROBABILITY NO HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO
JUST 6K FT SCT CLOUDS /CB/ WAS INDICATED. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS TO
NNW UNDER 10 KTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS LIKELY
JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KOAX 191742
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1242 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAKE SOME TWEAKS WITH MORNING UPDATES MAINLY FOR THE VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS
AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS IS MOVING OUT WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 80S WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SASK SOUTHWEST TO NV. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ALLOW FOR THE
COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY EXTNDG FROM CNTRL ND INTO WRN SD/ TO ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WE WILL SEE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXIT TO THE E BY MID MORNING
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE PRETTY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE MAY SEE SOME PRETTY
HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE 850 MB THERMAL AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB. WE HAVE INCREASE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR PARTS OF
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ERN NEB AND LOWER TO MID 80S OVER WRN IA. THE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDCD SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE HAD ADVECTED
NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH MIXING RATIOS OF +10 G/KG AT LEAST
TO KTOP. AS THE TROUGH NEARS TODAY AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES FROM THE WEST WE SHOULD SEE A WELL-DEVELOPED EML
OVERSPREAD THIS MOISTURE AND LEAD TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA BY LATE AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG. THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OR ANY
DVPA...AS WELL AS THE STRONG EML...WILL KEEP THE FA CAPPED THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. MODELS DO INDICATE THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE THIS
EVENING THOUGH AS HEIGHT FALLS MOV INTO ERN NEB/SD ALLOWING FOR A
WEAKENING OF THE EML AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE INCOMING
FRONT...WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR CI. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
WILL BE JUST BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME
FROM AROUND NELIGH TO WAYNE AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THEY WORK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH REMNANT OF ANY WEAK
MCS REACHING THE IA/MO BORDER AROUND 12Z SAT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND 25 TO 30
KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WE COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
INITIATION.

THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SAT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION LATE SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS ERN KS/MO. WITH THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WE DID INCREASE HIGHS A TOUCH SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE CWA ON SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH HIGHS/LOWS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER THAT ENDS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MON TIME FRAME OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AFTER THAT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
TO THE REGION MAINLY ON TUE. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS TROUGH IS
LIMITED THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE CUT-OFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES THAT WILL BE RETREATING NWD INTO CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP AND COVERAGE
IS LIMITED AND WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WITH SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 15
TO 20KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 25 TO 30KTS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY
BE NEAR KOFK BY 02-04Z...AND INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT THE
TAF SITES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT DOES
SLOW DOWN...HOWEVER THE FORCING WEAKENS...SO DO NOT HAVE A MENTION
AFTER 11Z AT KLNK/KOMA.  COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTING DEPENDING ON HOW IT EVOLVES. THE SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN
AS THE WIND SHIFT APPROACHES THEN EVENTUALLY TURNS TO THE NW
6-12KTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 191742
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1242 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAKE SOME TWEAKS WITH MORNING UPDATES MAINLY FOR THE VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS
AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS IS MOVING OUT WITH THE WARM
FRONT AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 80S WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SASK SOUTHWEST TO NV. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ALLOW FOR THE
COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY EXTNDG FROM CNTRL ND INTO WRN SD/ TO ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WE WILL SEE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXIT TO THE E BY MID MORNING
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE PRETTY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE MAY SEE SOME PRETTY
HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE 850 MB THERMAL AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB. WE HAVE INCREASE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR PARTS OF
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ERN NEB AND LOWER TO MID 80S OVER WRN IA. THE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDCD SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE HAD ADVECTED
NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH MIXING RATIOS OF +10 G/KG AT LEAST
TO KTOP. AS THE TROUGH NEARS TODAY AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES FROM THE WEST WE SHOULD SEE A WELL-DEVELOPED EML
OVERSPREAD THIS MOISTURE AND LEAD TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA BY LATE AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG. THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OR ANY
DVPA...AS WELL AS THE STRONG EML...WILL KEEP THE FA CAPPED THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. MODELS DO INDICATE THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE THIS
EVENING THOUGH AS HEIGHT FALLS MOV INTO ERN NEB/SD ALLOWING FOR A
WEAKENING OF THE EML AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE INCOMING
FRONT...WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR CI. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
WILL BE JUST BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME
FROM AROUND NELIGH TO WAYNE AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THEY WORK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH REMNANT OF ANY WEAK
MCS REACHING THE IA/MO BORDER AROUND 12Z SAT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND 25 TO 30
KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WE COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
INITIATION.

THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SAT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION LATE SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS ERN KS/MO. WITH THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WE DID INCREASE HIGHS A TOUCH SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE CWA ON SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH HIGHS/LOWS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER THAT ENDS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MON TIME FRAME OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AFTER THAT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
TO THE REGION MAINLY ON TUE. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS TROUGH IS
LIMITED THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE CUT-OFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES THAT WILL BE RETREATING NWD INTO CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP AND COVERAGE
IS LIMITED AND WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WITH SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 15
TO 20KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 25 TO 30KTS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY
BE NEAR KOFK BY 02-04Z...AND INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT THE
TAF SITES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT DOES
SLOW DOWN...HOWEVER THE FORCING WEAKENS...SO DO NOT HAVE A MENTION
AFTER 11Z AT KLNK/KOMA.  COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTING DEPENDING ON HOW IT EVOLVES. THE SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN
AS THE WIND SHIFT APPROACHES THEN EVENTUALLY TURNS TO THE NW
6-12KTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KLBF 191741
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1241 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SERN WY INTO NERN CO. ANOTHER
OVERNIGHT OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. THE COVERAGE OF STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE ONLY AREAS WITH VSBYS 1/2SM OR LESS WERE AT LBF AND
MCK AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES WERE MILD WITH LOW TO MID 60S COMMON
ACROSS NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS
FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...OGA AND IML
TO REACH THE LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM
85 TO 90. THERE WILL BE WEAK LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY
SOME BRIEF TOWERING CUMULUS POSSIBLE.

BY EARLY EVENING...THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE COOL FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WEAK COOLING ALOFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK LIFT INDICATED INVOF THE FRONT TO BREAK A
WEAKENING CAP AS FRONT/AND INCREASING LLJ CONTINUES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20 KTS WITH 0-3KM CAPES RANGE TO 500-750 J/KG.
CHANCES FOR ANY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IS LOW AND PROBABLY
CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING ONEILL AND BARTLETT. WHILE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS THIS
EVENING...LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ZONES MID EVENING...MOVES TO THE SERN ZONES BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING STORM CHANCES TO END. DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT SUPPORT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S FAR EAST AND SERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER. BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. WHILE THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST...THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A SFC HIGH WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS FROM THE MONTANA TO EASTERN NEB. THE COOL HIGH WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS TRENDING DOWN FOR SUNDAY...AND EXPECT SHOWERS FROM
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS.

BY MONDAY EYE WILL BE FOCUSED ON A CLOSED LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH...AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MAKE A
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PWATS INCREASE LATE MONDAY TO 2SD ABOVE SEPTEMBER
NORMS. PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING BETTER...AND CONTINUE TO TREND POPS
UP WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS MID WEEK...RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
HELP TO BRING A BRIEF WARM UP AS IT THEN DRIFTS EAST TO END THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING AT BOTH KLBF AND
KVTN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT IT WAS BEST TO USE A PERSISTENCE
/FROM PREVIOUS TAF/ FORECAST APPROACH AND RELY HEAVILY ON THE THE
NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS OUTPUT. THE CAM MODELS DO
INDICATE STORMS BREACHING A STOUT CAP EARLY THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE KLBF TERMINAL...BUT REMAINING
EAST AND SOUTH OF KVTN. CURRENTLY QUESTIONING THIS HOWEVER AS THE
BEST FOCUS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN
THE PROB 30 GROUP FOR THIS EVENING AT KLBF. OTHERWISE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THEREAFTER WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 191741
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1241 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SERN WY INTO NERN CO. ANOTHER
OVERNIGHT OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. THE COVERAGE OF STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE ONLY AREAS WITH VSBYS 1/2SM OR LESS WERE AT LBF AND
MCK AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES WERE MILD WITH LOW TO MID 60S COMMON
ACROSS NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS
FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...OGA AND IML
TO REACH THE LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM
85 TO 90. THERE WILL BE WEAK LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY
SOME BRIEF TOWERING CUMULUS POSSIBLE.

BY EARLY EVENING...THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE COOL FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WEAK COOLING ALOFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK LIFT INDICATED INVOF THE FRONT TO BREAK A
WEAKENING CAP AS FRONT/AND INCREASING LLJ CONTINUES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20 KTS WITH 0-3KM CAPES RANGE TO 500-750 J/KG.
CHANCES FOR ANY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IS LOW AND PROBABLY
CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING ONEILL AND BARTLETT. WHILE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS THIS
EVENING...LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ZONES MID EVENING...MOVES TO THE SERN ZONES BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING STORM CHANCES TO END. DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT SUPPORT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S FAR EAST AND SERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER. BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. WHILE THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST...THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A SFC HIGH WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS FROM THE MONTANA TO EASTERN NEB. THE COOL HIGH WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS TRENDING DOWN FOR SUNDAY...AND EXPECT SHOWERS FROM
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS.

BY MONDAY EYE WILL BE FOCUSED ON A CLOSED LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH...AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MAKE A
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PWATS INCREASE LATE MONDAY TO 2SD ABOVE SEPTEMBER
NORMS. PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING BETTER...AND CONTINUE TO TREND POPS
UP WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS MID WEEK...RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
HELP TO BRING A BRIEF WARM UP AS IT THEN DRIFTS EAST TO END THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING AT BOTH KLBF AND
KVTN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT IT WAS BEST TO USE A PERSISTENCE
/FROM PREVIOUS TAF/ FORECAST APPROACH AND RELY HEAVILY ON THE THE
NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS OUTPUT. THE CAM MODELS DO
INDICATE STORMS BREACHING A STOUT CAP EARLY THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE KLBF TERMINAL...BUT REMAINING
EAST AND SOUTH OF KVTN. CURRENTLY QUESTIONING THIS HOWEVER AS THE
BEST FOCUS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN
THE PROB 30 GROUP FOR THIS EVENING AT KLBF. OTHERWISE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THEREAFTER WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KGID 191434
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS HAS
BEEN FOR SKYCOVER...TO DECREASE TO NEARLY CLEAR ALONG AND W OF HWY
281 AND TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS IN THE STRATUS BETWEEN 281 AND HWY
81. TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BANK OF STRATUS
DISSIPATING/MIXING OUT AND THE FCST WAS ADJUSTED TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TIMING.

OVERALL...A VERY WARM/BRZY DAY. THIS WILL BE WARMEST DAY SINCE SEP
8TH. AFTER DIAGNOSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SEE NO REASON TO MODIFY
THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE 4AM FCST. THE WARM NOSE AT 840 MB AT LBF
WAS 25C! SO AREAS W OF HWY 283 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 90F
THIS AFTERNOON.

88D VELOCITY DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL. THE EXPANDING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY NOT TAP INTO THIS BEFORE SPEEDS COME
DOWN...BUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN GUSTING 20-30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...NOT RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID TIME OF THE TAFS WHEN THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 191434
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS HAS
BEEN FOR SKYCOVER...TO DECREASE TO NEARLY CLEAR ALONG AND W OF HWY
281 AND TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS IN THE STRATUS BETWEEN 281 AND HWY
81. TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BANK OF STRATUS
DISSIPATING/MIXING OUT AND THE FCST WAS ADJUSTED TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TIMING.

OVERALL...A VERY WARM/BRZY DAY. THIS WILL BE WARMEST DAY SINCE SEP
8TH. AFTER DIAGNOSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SEE NO REASON TO MODIFY
THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE 4AM FCST. THE WARM NOSE AT 840 MB AT LBF
WAS 25C! SO AREAS W OF HWY 283 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 90F
THIS AFTERNOON.

88D VELOCITY DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL. THE EXPANDING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY NOT TAP INTO THIS BEFORE SPEEDS COME
DOWN...BUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN GUSTING 20-30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...NOT RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID TIME OF THE TAFS WHEN THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 191434
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS HAS
BEEN FOR SKYCOVER...TO DECREASE TO NEARLY CLEAR ALONG AND W OF HWY
281 AND TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS IN THE STRATUS BETWEEN 281 AND HWY
81. TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BANK OF STRATUS
DISSIPATING/MIXING OUT AND THE FCST WAS ADJUSTED TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TIMING.

OVERALL...A VERY WARM/BRZY DAY. THIS WILL BE WARMEST DAY SINCE SEP
8TH. AFTER DIAGNOSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SEE NO REASON TO MODIFY
THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE 4AM FCST. THE WARM NOSE AT 840 MB AT LBF
WAS 25C! SO AREAS W OF HWY 283 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 90F
THIS AFTERNOON.

88D VELOCITY DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL. THE EXPANDING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY NOT TAP INTO THIS BEFORE SPEEDS COME
DOWN...BUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN GUSTING 20-30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...NOT RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID TIME OF THE TAFS WHEN THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 191434
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS HAS
BEEN FOR SKYCOVER...TO DECREASE TO NEARLY CLEAR ALONG AND W OF HWY
281 AND TO ADJUST FOR TRENDS IN THE STRATUS BETWEEN 281 AND HWY
81. TRENDS IN VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BANK OF STRATUS
DISSIPATING/MIXING OUT AND THE FCST WAS ADJUSTED TO BETTER HANDLE
THE TIMING.

OVERALL...A VERY WARM/BRZY DAY. THIS WILL BE WARMEST DAY SINCE SEP
8TH. AFTER DIAGNOSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SEE NO REASON TO MODIFY
THE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE 4AM FCST. THE WARM NOSE AT 840 MB AT LBF
WAS 25C! SO AREAS W OF HWY 283 SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING 90F
THIS AFTERNOON.

88D VELOCITY DATA SHOW 35 KTS AT 1000 FT AGL. THE EXPANDING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY NOT TAP INTO THIS BEFORE SPEEDS COME
DOWN...BUT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN GUSTING 20-30
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...NOT RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID TIME OF THE TAFS WHEN THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KLBF 191150
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
650 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SERN WY INTO NERN CO. ANOTHER
OVERNIGHT OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. THE COVERAGE OF STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE ONLY AREAS WITH VSBYS 1/2SM OR LESS WERE AT LBF AND
MCK AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES WERE MILD WITH LOW TO MID 60S COMMON
ACROSS NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS
FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...OGA AND IML
TO REACH THE LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM
85 TO 90. THERE WILL BE WEAK LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY
SOME BRIEF TOWERING CUMULUS POSSIBLE.

BY EARLY EVENING...THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE COOL FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WEAK COOLING ALOFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK LIFT INDICATED INVOF THE FRONT TO BREAK A
WEAKENING CAP AS FRONT/AND INCREASING LLJ CONTINUES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20 KTS WITH 0-3KM CAPES RANGE TO 500-750 J/KG.
CHANCES FOR ANY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IS LOW AND PROBABLY
CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING ONEILL AND BARTLETT. WHILE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS THIS
EVENING...LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ZONES MID EVENING...MOVES TO THE SERN ZONES BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING STORM CHANCES TO END. DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT SUPPORT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S FAR EAST AND SERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER. BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. WHILE THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST...THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A SFC HIGH WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS FROM THE MONTANA TO EASTERN NEB. THE COOL HIGH WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS TRENDING DOWN FOR SUNDAY...AND EXPECT SHOWERS FROM
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS.

BY MONDAY EYE WILL BE FOCUSED ON A CLOSED LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH...AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MAKE A
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PWATS INCREASE LATE MONDAY TO 2SD ABOVE SEPTEMBER
NORMS. PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING BETTER...AND CONTINUE TO TREND POPS
UP WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS MID WEEK...RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
HELP TO BRING A BRIEF WARM UP AS IT THEN DRIFTS EAST TO END THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FOG HAS DISPERSED FROM THE KLBF TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS FOREAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A PROB30 FOR -TSRA INTRODUCED
FROM 03Z-07Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT KVTN VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 191150
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
650 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SERN WY INTO NERN CO. ANOTHER
OVERNIGHT OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. THE COVERAGE OF STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE ONLY AREAS WITH VSBYS 1/2SM OR LESS WERE AT LBF AND
MCK AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES WERE MILD WITH LOW TO MID 60S COMMON
ACROSS NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS
FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...OGA AND IML
TO REACH THE LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM
85 TO 90. THERE WILL BE WEAK LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY
SOME BRIEF TOWERING CUMULUS POSSIBLE.

BY EARLY EVENING...THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE COOL FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WEAK COOLING ALOFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK LIFT INDICATED INVOF THE FRONT TO BREAK A
WEAKENING CAP AS FRONT/AND INCREASING LLJ CONTINUES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20 KTS WITH 0-3KM CAPES RANGE TO 500-750 J/KG.
CHANCES FOR ANY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IS LOW AND PROBABLY
CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING ONEILL AND BARTLETT. WHILE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS THIS
EVENING...LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ZONES MID EVENING...MOVES TO THE SERN ZONES BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING STORM CHANCES TO END. DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT SUPPORT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S FAR EAST AND SERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER. BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. WHILE THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST...THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A SFC HIGH WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS FROM THE MONTANA TO EASTERN NEB. THE COOL HIGH WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS TRENDING DOWN FOR SUNDAY...AND EXPECT SHOWERS FROM
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS.

BY MONDAY EYE WILL BE FOCUSED ON A CLOSED LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH...AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MAKE A
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PWATS INCREASE LATE MONDAY TO 2SD ABOVE SEPTEMBER
NORMS. PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING BETTER...AND CONTINUE TO TREND POPS
UP WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS MID WEEK...RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
HELP TO BRING A BRIEF WARM UP AS IT THEN DRIFTS EAST TO END THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FOG HAS DISPERSED FROM THE KLBF TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS FOREAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A PROB30 FOR -TSRA INTRODUCED
FROM 03Z-07Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT KVTN VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KOAX 191127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SASK SOUTHWEST TO NV. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ALLOW FOR THE
COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY EXTNDG FROM CNTRL ND INTO WRN SD/ TO ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WE WILL SEE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXIT TO THE E BY MID MORNING
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE PRETTY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE MAY SEE SOME PRETTY
HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE 850 MB THERMAL AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB. WE HAVE INCREASE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR PARTS OF
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ERN NEB AND LOWER TO MID 80S OVER WRN IA. THE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDCD SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE HAD ADVECTED
NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH MIXING RATIOS OF +10 G/KG AT LEAST
TO KTOP. AS THE TROUGH NEARS TODAY AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES FROM THE WEST WE SHOULD SEE A WELL-DEVELOPED EML
OVERSPREAD THIS MOISTURE AND LEAD TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA BY LATE AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG. THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OR ANY
DVPA...AS WELL AS THE STRONG EML...WILL KEEP THE FA CAPPED THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. MODELS DO INDICATE THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE THIS
EVENING THOUGH AS HEIGHT FALLS MOV INTO ERN NEB/SD ALLOWING FOR A
WEAKENING OF THE EML AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE INCOMING
FRONT...WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR CI. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
WILL BE JUST BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME
FROM AROUND NELIGH TO WAYNE AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THEY WORK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH REMNANT OF ANY WEAK
MCS REACHING THE IA/MO BORDER AROUND 12Z SAT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND 25 TO 30
KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WE COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
INITIATION.

THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SAT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION LATE SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS ERN KS/MO. WITH THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WE DID INCREASE HIGHS A TOUCH SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE CWA ON SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH HIGHS/LOWS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER THAT ENDS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MON TIME FRAME OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AFTER THAT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
TO THE REGION MAINLY ON TUE. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS TROUGH IS
LIMITED THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE CUT-OFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES THAT WILL BE RETREATING NWD INTO CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP AND COVERAGE
IS LIMITED AND WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WITH SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS INCLUDE... MORNING STRATUS... GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS... THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

EXTENSIVE AREA OF IFR STRATUS COVERED MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN QUICKLY ERODING SINCE 10Z
DUE TO SOUTH WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING. AT THE
CURRENT RATE...MOST OF THE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA BY 17Z. THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO NEAR
25 KNOTS AT TIMES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...WE DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. KOFK COULD BE
IMPACTED AS EARLY AS 03Z...WITH KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...NIETFELD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 191127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SASK SOUTHWEST TO NV. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ALLOW FOR THE
COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY EXTNDG FROM CNTRL ND INTO WRN SD/ TO ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WE WILL SEE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXIT TO THE E BY MID MORNING
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE PRETTY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE MAY SEE SOME PRETTY
HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE 850 MB THERMAL AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB. WE HAVE INCREASE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR PARTS OF
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ERN NEB AND LOWER TO MID 80S OVER WRN IA. THE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDCD SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE HAD ADVECTED
NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH MIXING RATIOS OF +10 G/KG AT LEAST
TO KTOP. AS THE TROUGH NEARS TODAY AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES FROM THE WEST WE SHOULD SEE A WELL-DEVELOPED EML
OVERSPREAD THIS MOISTURE AND LEAD TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA BY LATE AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG. THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OR ANY
DVPA...AS WELL AS THE STRONG EML...WILL KEEP THE FA CAPPED THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. MODELS DO INDICATE THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE THIS
EVENING THOUGH AS HEIGHT FALLS MOV INTO ERN NEB/SD ALLOWING FOR A
WEAKENING OF THE EML AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE INCOMING
FRONT...WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR CI. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
WILL BE JUST BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME
FROM AROUND NELIGH TO WAYNE AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THEY WORK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH REMNANT OF ANY WEAK
MCS REACHING THE IA/MO BORDER AROUND 12Z SAT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND 25 TO 30
KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WE COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
INITIATION.

THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SAT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION LATE SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS ERN KS/MO. WITH THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WE DID INCREASE HIGHS A TOUCH SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE CWA ON SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH HIGHS/LOWS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER THAT ENDS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MON TIME FRAME OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AFTER THAT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
TO THE REGION MAINLY ON TUE. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS TROUGH IS
LIMITED THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE CUT-OFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES THAT WILL BE RETREATING NWD INTO CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP AND COVERAGE
IS LIMITED AND WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WITH SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS INCLUDE... MORNING STRATUS... GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS... THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

EXTENSIVE AREA OF IFR STRATUS COVERED MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN QUICKLY ERODING SINCE 10Z
DUE TO SOUTH WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING. AT THE
CURRENT RATE...MOST OF THE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA BY 17Z. THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO NEAR
25 KNOTS AT TIMES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...WE DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. KOFK COULD BE
IMPACTED AS EARLY AS 03Z...WITH KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...NIETFELD




000
FXUS63 KGID 191056
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
556 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...NOT RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID TIME OF THE TAFS WHEN THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 191056
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
556 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...NOT RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID TIME OF THE TAFS WHEN THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 191056
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
556 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...NOT RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID TIME OF THE TAFS WHEN THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 191056
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
556 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...NOT RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID TIME OF THE TAFS WHEN THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 190920
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOTS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILE FROM RADAR AT THIS
TIME...THINK THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 50KTS AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. AM A LITTLE WORRIED EXPANSIVE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
WHICH IS INDICATING WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ONCE THIS STRATUS LIFTS AND SCATTERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING AND DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 190920
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOTS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILE FROM RADAR AT THIS
TIME...THINK THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 50KTS AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. AM A LITTLE WORRIED EXPANSIVE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
WHICH IS INDICATING WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ONCE THIS STRATUS LIFTS AND SCATTERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING AND DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 190920
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOTS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILE FROM RADAR AT THIS
TIME...THINK THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 50KTS AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. AM A LITTLE WORRIED EXPANSIVE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
WHICH IS INDICATING WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ONCE THIS STRATUS LIFTS AND SCATTERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING AND DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 190920
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND A RELATIVELY
WARM...SUNNY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS SOARING INTO THE MID 20S IN A THERMAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEE NO PROBLEM FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED...IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...MAIN STORY TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONT ALONG WITH A BRIEF RETURN
TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO COME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHEN
SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD TAP INTO THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN...IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO RAPIDLY GROW
AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WITH CLOUDS...ELEVATED DEW
POINTS...AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO
BE RATHER MILD...RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS RIDGING EXTENDS NW FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE PAC NW AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE N/NW. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OR SO CENTERS
AROUND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS ISNT TOO
BAD...SHOWING IT THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA ARND MIDDAY...AND
SHIFTING JUST OUTSIDE THE S/SERN FRINGE BY EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF
THE CWA...BUT THE SFC FRONT WILL HELP ADD A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TAPER
BACK THE QPF VALUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...PREVIOUS RUNS WERE
SHOWING THERE BEING A BETTER TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SRN CONUS.
BECAUSE OF THIS WAS NOT GOING TO RAISE POPS...FELT THE INHERITED 20
TO 30 POPS HANDLED THE SITUATION WELL.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6
REMAIN THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW LONG THOSE CHANCES
WILL LINGER. GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT ENDS
UP BY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT THE POPS GOING THROUGH THE
AFTER IN THE SOUTH...WITH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY...BUT IT
MAY BE CLOSE FOR ESP THOSE SRN 3 COUNTIES OF NC KS.

THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SUN/SUN NIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SW COAST FINALLY MAKE A PUSH FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE NW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LOOKS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MORE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES...FOR SAT...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES ALWAYS MAKE THINGS
TRICKY SO CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST...BUT CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR LOWER/MID 80S. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY...WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS WITH TIME...AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY/MID WORK WEEK PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. MODELS SHOW THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WRN CONUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST...PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF THE CWA...AND BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW IS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER
NRN WY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE
FOR MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES COME DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS/INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED/THUR AS MODELS SHOW A SECOND
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE THIS FAR OUT...NOT EXPECTING DAYS OF NON STOP
PRECIPITATION...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD. WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
CONFIDENCE ISNT THE HIGHEST IN POPS...SAME GOES FOR TEMPS. THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER REALIZED WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG PART
IN TEMPS...AND AT THIS POINT MADE NO CHANGES TO ALLBLEND.  HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S MON THRU THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOTS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILE FROM RADAR AT THIS
TIME...THINK THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 50KTS AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. AM A LITTLE WORRIED EXPANSIVE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
WHICH IS INDICATING WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ONCE THIS STRATUS LIFTS AND SCATTERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING AND DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KLBF 190900
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SERN WY INTO NERN CO. ANOTHER
OVERNIGHT OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. THE COVERAGE OF STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE ONLY AREAS WITH VSBYS 1/2SM OR LESS WERE AT LBF AND
MCK AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES WERE MILD WITH LOW TO MID 60S COMMON
ACROSS NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS
FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...OGA AND IML
TO REACH THE LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM
85 TO 90. THERE WILL BE WEAK LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY
SOME BRIEF TOWERING CUMULUS POSSIBLE.

BY EARLY EVENING...THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE COOL FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WEAK COOLING ALOFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK LIFT INDICATED INVOF THE FRONT TO BREAK A
WEAKENING CAP AS FRONT/AND INCREASING LLJ CONTINUES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20 KTS WITH 0-3KM CAPES RANGE TO 500-750 J/KG.
CHANCES FOR ANY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IS LOW AND PROBABLY
CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING ONEILL AND BARTLETT. WHILE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS THIS
EVENING...LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ZONES MID EVENING...MOVES TO THE SERN ZONES BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING STORM CHANCES TO END. DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT SUPPORT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S FAR EAST AND SERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER. BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. WHILE THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST...THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A SFC HIGH WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS FROM THE MONTANA TO EASTERN NEB. THE COOL HIGH WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS TRENDING DOWN FOR SUNDAY...AND EXPECT SHOWERS FROM
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS.

BY MONDAY EYE WILL BE FOCUSED ON A CLOSED LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH...AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MAKE A
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PWATS INCREASE LATE MONDAY TO 2SD ABOVE SEPTEMBER
NORMS. PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING BETTER...AND CONTINUE TO TREND POPS
UP WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS MID WEEK...RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
HELP TO BRING A BRIEF WARM UP AS IT THEN DRIFTS EAST TO END THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AREAS OF FOG/MIST ARE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INCLUDING THE AREAS BOUNDED BY BBW-OGA-MCK-LXN-BBW. WITH LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND...THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT FOG/MIST WILL
NOT CONTINUE FORMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WHICH
INCLUDES THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST OF LBF...THROUGH LBF TO OGA AND
EXTENDS TO IML. AS A RESULT...WE WILL INCLUDE 1SM BRFG IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST FOR LBF AFTER 10Z. FOG/MIST IS LIKELY TO LIFT
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY
OVER MOST AREAS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 190900
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SERN WY INTO NERN CO. ANOTHER
OVERNIGHT OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. THE COVERAGE OF STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE ONLY AREAS WITH VSBYS 1/2SM OR LESS WERE AT LBF AND
MCK AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES WERE MILD WITH LOW TO MID 60S COMMON
ACROSS NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS
FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...OGA AND IML
TO REACH THE LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM
85 TO 90. THERE WILL BE WEAK LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY
SOME BRIEF TOWERING CUMULUS POSSIBLE.

BY EARLY EVENING...THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE COOL FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WEAK COOLING ALOFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK LIFT INDICATED INVOF THE FRONT TO BREAK A
WEAKENING CAP AS FRONT/AND INCREASING LLJ CONTINUES. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20 KTS WITH 0-3KM CAPES RANGE TO 500-750 J/KG.
CHANCES FOR ANY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IS LOW AND PROBABLY
CONFINED TO EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING ONEILL AND BARTLETT. WHILE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL AREAS THIS
EVENING...LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ZONES MID EVENING...MOVES TO THE SERN ZONES BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FAR SERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING STORM CHANCES TO END. DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT SUPPORT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S FAR EAST AND SERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST SATURDAY...STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE NEB/KS BORDER. BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. WHILE THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST...THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A SFC HIGH WILL DIVE ESE
ACROSS FROM THE MONTANA TO EASTERN NEB. THE COOL HIGH WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS TRENDING DOWN FOR SUNDAY...AND EXPECT SHOWERS FROM
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE SOME CLOUDS.

BY MONDAY EYE WILL BE FOCUSED ON A CLOSED LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH...AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MAKE A
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PWATS INCREASE LATE MONDAY TO 2SD ABOVE SEPTEMBER
NORMS. PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING BETTER...AND CONTINUE TO TREND POPS
UP WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS MID WEEK...RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
HELP TO BRING A BRIEF WARM UP AS IT THEN DRIFTS EAST TO END THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AREAS OF FOG/MIST ARE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INCLUDING THE AREAS BOUNDED BY BBW-OGA-MCK-LXN-BBW. WITH LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND...THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT FOG/MIST WILL
NOT CONTINUE FORMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WHICH
INCLUDES THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST OF LBF...THROUGH LBF TO OGA AND
EXTENDS TO IML. AS A RESULT...WE WILL INCLUDE 1SM BRFG IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST FOR LBF AFTER 10Z. FOG/MIST IS LIKELY TO LIFT
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY
OVER MOST AREAS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KOAX 190852
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
352 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SASK SOUTHWEST TO NV. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ALLOW FOR THE
COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY EXTNDG FROM CNTRL ND INTO WRN SD/ TO ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WE WILL SEE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXIT TO THE E BY MID MORNING
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE PRETTY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE MAY SEE SOME PRETTY
HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE 850 MB THERMAL AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB. WE HAVE INCREASE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR PARTS OF
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ERN NEB AND LOWER TO MID 80S OVER WRN IA. THE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDCD SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE HAD ADVECTED
NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH MIXING RATIOS OF +10 G/KG AT LEAST
TO KTOP. AS THE TROUGH NEARS TODAY AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES FROM THE WEST WE SHOULD SEE A WELL-DEVELOPED EML
OVERSPREAD THIS MOISTURE AND LEAD TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA BY LATE AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG. THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OR ANY
DVPA...AS WELL AS THE STRONG EML...WILL KEEP THE FA CAPPED THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. MODELS DO INDICATE THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE THIS
EVENING THOUGH AS HEIGHT FALLS MOV INTO ERN NEB/SD ALLOWING FOR A
WEAKENING OF THE EML AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE INCOMING
FRONT...WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR CI. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
WILL BE JUST BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME
FROM AROUND NELIGH TO WAYNE AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THEY WORK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH REMNANT OF ANY WEAK
MCS REACHING THE IA/MO BORDER AROUND 12Z SAT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND 25 TO 30
KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WE COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
INITIATION.

THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SAT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION LATE SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS ERN KS/MO. WITH THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WE DID INCREASE HIGHS A TOUCH SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE CWA ON SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH HIGHS/LOWS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER THAT ENDS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MON TIME FRAME OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AFTER THAT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
TO THE REGION MAINLY ON TUE. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS TROUGH IS
LIMITED THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE CUT-OFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES THAT WILL BE RETREATING NWD INTO CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP AND COVERAGE
IS LIMITED AND WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WITH SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR/IFR STRATUS WAS OVERSPREADING ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. CIGS
BETWEEN FL006 TO FL012 SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO 5SM AT TIMES. THEN SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AFTER 15Z WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 190852
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
352 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SASK SOUTHWEST TO NV. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ALLOW FOR THE
COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY EXTNDG FROM CNTRL ND INTO WRN SD/ TO ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WE WILL SEE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXIT TO THE E BY MID MORNING
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE PRETTY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE MAY SEE SOME PRETTY
HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE 850 MB THERMAL AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB. WE HAVE INCREASE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR PARTS OF
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ERN NEB AND LOWER TO MID 80S OVER WRN IA. THE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDCD SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE HAD ADVECTED
NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH MIXING RATIOS OF +10 G/KG AT LEAST
TO KTOP. AS THE TROUGH NEARS TODAY AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES FROM THE WEST WE SHOULD SEE A WELL-DEVELOPED EML
OVERSPREAD THIS MOISTURE AND LEAD TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA BY LATE AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG. THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OR ANY
DVPA...AS WELL AS THE STRONG EML...WILL KEEP THE FA CAPPED THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. MODELS DO INDICATE THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE THIS
EVENING THOUGH AS HEIGHT FALLS MOV INTO ERN NEB/SD ALLOWING FOR A
WEAKENING OF THE EML AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE INCOMING
FRONT...WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR CI. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
WILL BE JUST BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME
FROM AROUND NELIGH TO WAYNE AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THEY WORK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH REMNANT OF ANY WEAK
MCS REACHING THE IA/MO BORDER AROUND 12Z SAT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND 25 TO 30
KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WE COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
INITIATION.

THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SAT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION LATE SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS ERN KS/MO. WITH THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WE DID INCREASE HIGHS A TOUCH SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE CWA ON SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH HIGHS/LOWS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER THAT ENDS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MON TIME FRAME OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AFTER THAT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
TO THE REGION MAINLY ON TUE. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS TROUGH IS
LIMITED THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE CUT-OFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES THAT WILL BE RETREATING NWD INTO CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP AND COVERAGE
IS LIMITED AND WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WITH SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR/IFR STRATUS WAS OVERSPREADING ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. CIGS
BETWEEN FL006 TO FL012 SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO 5SM AT TIMES. THEN SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AFTER 15Z WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 190852
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
352 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SASK SOUTHWEST TO NV. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ALLOW FOR THE
COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY EXTNDG FROM CNTRL ND INTO WRN SD/ TO ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WE WILL SEE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXIT TO THE E BY MID MORNING
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE PRETTY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE MAY SEE SOME PRETTY
HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE 850 MB THERMAL AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB. WE HAVE INCREASE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR PARTS OF
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ERN NEB AND LOWER TO MID 80S OVER WRN IA. THE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDCD SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE HAD ADVECTED
NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH MIXING RATIOS OF +10 G/KG AT LEAST
TO KTOP. AS THE TROUGH NEARS TODAY AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES FROM THE WEST WE SHOULD SEE A WELL-DEVELOPED EML
OVERSPREAD THIS MOISTURE AND LEAD TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA BY LATE AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG. THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OR ANY
DVPA...AS WELL AS THE STRONG EML...WILL KEEP THE FA CAPPED THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. MODELS DO INDICATE THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE THIS
EVENING THOUGH AS HEIGHT FALLS MOV INTO ERN NEB/SD ALLOWING FOR A
WEAKENING OF THE EML AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE INCOMING
FRONT...WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR CI. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
WILL BE JUST BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME
FROM AROUND NELIGH TO WAYNE AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THEY WORK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH REMNANT OF ANY WEAK
MCS REACHING THE IA/MO BORDER AROUND 12Z SAT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND 25 TO 30
KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WE COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
INITIATION.

THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SAT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION LATE SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS ERN KS/MO. WITH THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WE DID INCREASE HIGHS A TOUCH SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE CWA ON SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH HIGHS/LOWS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER THAT ENDS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MON TIME FRAME OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AFTER THAT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
TO THE REGION MAINLY ON TUE. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS TROUGH IS
LIMITED THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE CUT-OFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES THAT WILL BE RETREATING NWD INTO CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP AND COVERAGE
IS LIMITED AND WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WITH SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR/IFR STRATUS WAS OVERSPREADING ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. CIGS
BETWEEN FL006 TO FL012 SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO 5SM AT TIMES. THEN SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AFTER 15Z WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 190852
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
352 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SASK SOUTHWEST TO NV. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ALLOW FOR THE
COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY EXTNDG FROM CNTRL ND INTO WRN SD/ TO ADVANCE
TO NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WE WILL SEE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXIT TO THE E BY MID MORNING
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE PRETTY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND
WITH DEEP MIXING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE MAY SEE SOME PRETTY
HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE 850 MB THERMAL AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB. WE HAVE INCREASE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR PARTS OF
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ERN NEB AND LOWER TO MID 80S OVER WRN IA. THE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDCD SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE HAD ADVECTED
NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH MIXING RATIOS OF +10 G/KG AT LEAST
TO KTOP. AS THE TROUGH NEARS TODAY AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES FROM THE WEST WE SHOULD SEE A WELL-DEVELOPED EML
OVERSPREAD THIS MOISTURE AND LEAD TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA BY LATE AFTN WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG. THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OR ANY
DVPA...AS WELL AS THE STRONG EML...WILL KEEP THE FA CAPPED THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. MODELS DO INDICATE THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE THIS
EVENING THOUGH AS HEIGHT FALLS MOV INTO ERN NEB/SD ALLOWING FOR A
WEAKENING OF THE EML AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE INCOMING
FRONT...WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR CI. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
WILL BE JUST BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME
FROM AROUND NELIGH TO WAYNE AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THEY WORK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH REMNANT OF ANY WEAK
MCS REACHING THE IA/MO BORDER AROUND 12Z SAT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND 25 TO 30
KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WE COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
INITIATION.

THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
DAY ON SAT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION LATE SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS ERN KS/MO. WITH THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WE DID INCREASE HIGHS A TOUCH SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE CWA ON SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH HIGHS/LOWS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER THAT ENDS THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MON TIME FRAME OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AFTER THAT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
TO THE REGION MAINLY ON TUE. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS TROUGH IS
LIMITED THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE CUT-OFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES THAT WILL BE RETREATING NWD INTO CANADA THROUGH
THE WEEK. THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP AND COVERAGE
IS LIMITED AND WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE WITH SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR/IFR STRATUS WAS OVERSPREADING ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. CIGS
BETWEEN FL006 TO FL012 SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO 5SM AT TIMES. THEN SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AFTER 15Z WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KGID 190559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN AND
NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN DAWSON COUNTY. WIND SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER
DEVELOPS...SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOTS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILE FROM RADAR AT THIS
TIME...THINK THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 50KTS AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. AM A LITTLE WORRIED EXPANSIVE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
WHICH IS INDICATING WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ONCE THIS STRATUS LIFTS AND SCATTERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING AND DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 190559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN AND
NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN DAWSON COUNTY. WIND SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER
DEVELOPS...SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOTS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILE FROM RADAR AT THIS
TIME...THINK THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 50KTS AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. AM A LITTLE WORRIED EXPANSIVE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
WHICH IS INDICATING WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ONCE THIS STRATUS LIFTS AND SCATTERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING AND DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 190559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN AND
NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN DAWSON COUNTY. WIND SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER
DEVELOPS...SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOTS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILE FROM RADAR AT THIS
TIME...THINK THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 50KTS AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. AM A LITTLE WORRIED EXPANSIVE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
WHICH IS INDICATING WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ONCE THIS STRATUS LIFTS AND SCATTERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING AND DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 190559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN AND
NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN DAWSON COUNTY. WIND SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER
DEVELOPS...SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOTS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WHILE SOME
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILE FROM RADAR AT THIS
TIME...THINK THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO NEAR 50KTS AS WE APPROACH
DAYBREAK. AM A LITTLE WORRIED EXPANSIVE STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
WHICH IS INDICATING WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. ONCE THIS STRATUS LIFTS AND SCATTERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING AND DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KOAX 190452
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AS LOW LEVEL JET RIDES OVER WARM FRONT.

WITH WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
OVERHEAD...WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE PROGRESS SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT. MUCH
OF THE AREA COULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA SEEING BEST CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON. AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER INTO THE
EVENING WITH COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS BY THEN.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THEN A
SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST BY GFS/ECMWF TO WANDER INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY...THEN
MORE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75 FOR
HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER IS NOT
EXPECTED EACH DAY...GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAKNESS IN MID
LEVEL FLOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR OFF-AND-ON
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR/IFR STRATUS WAS OVERSPREADING ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. CIGS
BETWEEN FL006 TO FL012 SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO 5SM AT TIMES. THEN SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AFTER 15Z WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 190452
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AS LOW LEVEL JET RIDES OVER WARM FRONT.

WITH WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
OVERHEAD...WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE PROGRESS SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT. MUCH
OF THE AREA COULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA SEEING BEST CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON. AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER INTO THE
EVENING WITH COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS BY THEN.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THEN A
SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST BY GFS/ECMWF TO WANDER INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY...THEN
MORE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75 FOR
HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER IS NOT
EXPECTED EACH DAY...GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAKNESS IN MID
LEVEL FLOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR OFF-AND-ON
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR/IFR STRATUS WAS OVERSPREADING ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. CIGS
BETWEEN FL006 TO FL012 SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO 5SM AT TIMES. THEN SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AFTER 15Z WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 190442
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1142 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AT H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH ALONG
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER IDAHO
AND MONTANA AS SEEN IN IR AND RADAR. REMAINS OF ODILLE UNDER THE
ROCKIES RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED
RADAR RETURNS FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

INFRA-RED GOES IMAGERY WAS SHOWING PATCHES OF FOG IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. WITH CLEAR SKY LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND...THERE IS NO
COMPELLING REASON TO EXPECT IT NOT TO CONTINUE IN THE VALLEYS.
THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...
DECOUPLING IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY SHOULD KEEP IT EAST-SOUTHEAST.
SO...WE HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN H850 MB WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...H850 MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS...AS WARMER AND DRIER AT
THAT LEVEL RUSH INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK
TO HANG TOUGH AND EVEN EXPAND THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP IN THE 10 MPH RANGE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK WARM UP...WITH AREAS FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH PLATTE NEARING 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OR HINDER DEVELOPMENT
ALTOGETHER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. MID TERM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN ENERGY WITH
SYSTEM IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MID LEVEL FORCING OVER
NEBRASKA FAIRLY WEAK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HAVE RETAINED CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN AND COOLS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DRY FOR NOW. CLOSED
CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM MEANDERS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MOST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AREAS OF FOG/MIST ARE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INCLUDING THE AREAS BOUNDED BY BBW-OGA-MCK-LXN-BBW. WITH LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND...THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT FOG/MIST WILL
NOT CONTINUE FORMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WHICH
INCLUDES THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST OF LBF...THROUGH LBF TO OGA AND
EXTENDS TO IML. AS A RESULT...WE WILL INCLUDE 1SM BRFG IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST FOR LBF AFTER 10Z. FOG/MIST IS LIKELY TO LIFT
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY
OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 190350
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1050 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AT H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH ALONG
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER IDAHO
AND MONTANA AS SEEN IN IR AND RADAR. REMAINS OF ODILLE UNDER THE
ROCKIES RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED
RADAR RETURNS FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

INFRA-RED GOES IMAGERY WAS SHOWING PATCHES OF FOG IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. WITH CLEAR SKY LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND...THERE IS NO
COMPELLING REASON TO EXPECT IT NOT TO CONTINUE IN THE VALLEYS.
THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...
DECOUPLING IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY SHOULD KEEP IT EAST-SOUTHEAST.
SO...WE HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN H850 MB WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...H850 MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS...AS WARMER AND DRIER AT
THAT LEVEL RUSH INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK
TO HANG TOUGH AND EVEN EXPAND THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP IN THE 10 MPH RANGE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK WARM UP...WITH AREAS FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH PLATTE NEARING 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OR HINDER DEVELOPMENT
ALTOGETHER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. MID TERM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN ENERGY WITH
SYSTEM IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MID LEVEL FORCING OVER
NEBRASKA FAIRLY WEAK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HAVE RETAINED CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN AND COOLS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DRY FOR NOW. CLOSED
CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM MEANDERS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MOST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED AT 1049 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

STRATUS IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AS WIND
DIMINISHES AND THE SKY CLEARS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING VISIBILITY. THE VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 1SM OR
LESS TO 4SM IN PATCHY FOG/MIST. FOG WILL LIFT RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KGID 190322
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1022 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN AND
NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN DAWSON COUNTY. WIND SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER
DEVELOPS...SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WIND SHEAR IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE
GIVING US SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...BUT VARYING DEGREES. I OPTED
FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC SCATTERED.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 190322
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1022 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN AND
NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN DAWSON COUNTY. WIND SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER
DEVELOPS...SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WIND SHEAR IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE
GIVING US SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...BUT VARYING DEGREES. I OPTED
FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC SCATTERED.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 190322
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1022 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN AND
NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN DAWSON COUNTY. WIND SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER
DEVELOPS...SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WIND SHEAR IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE
GIVING US SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...BUT VARYING DEGREES. I OPTED
FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC SCATTERED.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 190322
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1022 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN AND
NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY IN DAWSON COUNTY. WIND SHOULD
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER
DEVELOPS...SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WIND SHEAR IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE
GIVING US SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...BUT VARYING DEGREES. I OPTED
FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC SCATTERED.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 190030
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
730 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AS LOW LEVEL JET RIDES OVER WARM FRONT.

WITH WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
OVERHEAD...WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE PROGRESS SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT. MUCH
OF THE AREA COULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA SEEING BEST CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON. AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER INTO THE
EVENING WITH COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS BY THEN.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THEN A
SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST BY GFS/ECMWF TO WANDER INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY...THEN
MORE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75 FOR
HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER IS NOT
EXPECTED EACH DAY...GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAKNESS IN MID
LEVEL FLOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR OFF-AND-ON
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12KT DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
NEAR 15KT OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS
IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL SPREAD NORTH AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...AND WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL EASTERN NEBRASKA
TAF SITES. EXPECT CIGS NEAR FL015 BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AFTER
15Z...CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND LIFT TO FL040 WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 190030
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
730 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AS LOW LEVEL JET RIDES OVER WARM FRONT.

WITH WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
OVERHEAD...WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE PROGRESS SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT. MUCH
OF THE AREA COULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA SEEING BEST CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON. AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER INTO THE
EVENING WITH COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS BY THEN.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THEN A
SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST BY GFS/ECMWF TO WANDER INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY...THEN
MORE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 70 AND 75 FOR
HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDER IS NOT
EXPECTED EACH DAY...GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILES AND WEAKNESS IN MID
LEVEL FLOW...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR OFF-AND-ON
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12KT DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
NEAR 15KT OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS
IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL SPREAD NORTH AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...AND WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL EASTERN NEBRASKA
TAF SITES. EXPECT CIGS NEAR FL015 BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AFTER
15Z...CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AND LIFT TO FL040 WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KGID 190000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WIND SHEAR IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE
GIVING US SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...BUT VARYING DEGREES. I OPTED
FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC SCATTERED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 190000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WIND SHEAR IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE
GIVING US SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS...BUT VARYING DEGREES. I OPTED
FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC SCATTERED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 182324
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
624 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AT H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH ALONG
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER IDAHO
AND MONTANA AS SEEN IN IR AND RADAR. REMAINS OF ODILLE UNDER THE
ROCKIES RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED
RADAR RETURNS FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN H850 MB WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...H850 MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS...AS WARMER AND DRIER AT
THAT LEVEL RUSH INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK
TO HANG TOUGH AND EVEN EXPAND THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP IN THE 10 MPH RANGE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK WARM UP...WITH AREAS FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH PLATTE NEARING 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OR HINDER DEVELOPMENT
ALTOGETHER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. MID TERM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN ENERGY WITH
SYSTEM IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MID LEVEL FORCING OVER
NEBRASKA FAIRLY WEAK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HAVE RETAINED CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN AND COOLS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DRY FOR NOW. CLOSED
CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM MEANDERS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MOST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT IS AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTRUMENT OR
LOW INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS ARE THAT THE
MARGINAL CEILINGS NOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
LOWER THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WHEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION BECOMES
180-200 VERSUS THE 130-160 DIRECTION OVER THE AREA NOW. AROUND THAT
TIME...THE STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES. HOWEVER...ALONG THE EDGES OF THE STRATUS...THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG IS FAIRLY HIGH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. WE ARE
THINKING THAT...BY ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z...VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AFTER FLIRTING BRIEFLY WITH VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 1SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 182324
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
624 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AT H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH ALONG
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER IDAHO
AND MONTANA AS SEEN IN IR AND RADAR. REMAINS OF ODILLE UNDER THE
ROCKIES RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED
RADAR RETURNS FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN H850 MB WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...H850 MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS...AS WARMER AND DRIER AT
THAT LEVEL RUSH INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK
TO HANG TOUGH AND EVEN EXPAND THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP IN THE 10 MPH RANGE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK WARM UP...WITH AREAS FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH PLATTE NEARING 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OR HINDER DEVELOPMENT
ALTOGETHER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. MID TERM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN ENERGY WITH
SYSTEM IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MID LEVEL FORCING OVER
NEBRASKA FAIRLY WEAK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HAVE RETAINED CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN AND COOLS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DRY FOR NOW. CLOSED
CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM MEANDERS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MOST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT IS AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTRUMENT OR
LOW INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS ARE THAT THE
MARGINAL CEILINGS NOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
LOWER THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WHEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION BECOMES
180-200 VERSUS THE 130-160 DIRECTION OVER THE AREA NOW. AROUND THAT
TIME...THE STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES. HOWEVER...ALONG THE EDGES OF THE STRATUS...THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG IS FAIRLY HIGH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. WE ARE
THINKING THAT...BY ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z...VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AFTER FLIRTING BRIEFLY WITH VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 1SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 182008
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
308 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AT H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH ALONG
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER IDAHO
AND MONTANA AS SEEN IN IR AND RADAR. REMAINS OF ODILLE UNDER THE
ROCKIES RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED
RADAR RETURNS FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN H850 MB WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...H850 MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS...AS WARMER AND DRIER AT
THAT LEVEL RUSH INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK
TO HANG TOUGH AND EVEN EXPAND THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP IN THE 10 MPH RANGE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK WARM UP...WITH AREAS FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH PLATTE NEARING 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OR HINDER DEVELOPMENT
ALTOGETHER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. MID TERM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN ENERGY WITH
SYSTEM IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MID LEVEL FORCING OVER
NEBRASKA FAIRLY WEAK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HAVE RETAINED CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN AND COOLS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DRY FOR NOW. CLOSED
CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM MEANDERS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MOST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR AND LOCAL IFR WILL PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS IN
SPOTS. AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BECOME SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION.




&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KGID 181931
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
231 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER...KEAR WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CEILING TO BE BROKEN AROUND 2000 FT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KGRI WILL MISS OUT ON THESE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...GUERRERO




000
FXUS63 KGID 181931
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
231 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER...KEAR WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CEILING TO BE BROKEN AROUND 2000 FT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KGRI WILL MISS OUT ON THESE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...GUERRERO




000
FXUS63 KGID 181931
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
231 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER...KEAR WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CEILING TO BE BROKEN AROUND 2000 FT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KGRI WILL MISS OUT ON THESE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...GUERRERO




000
FXUS63 KGID 181931
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
231 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. BIG STORY WILL BE
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
THE WARMER WEATHER TOMORROW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
REMNANTS FROM ODILE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AS WE WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY CALM WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z AND
04Z...AND ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY REASONABLE DURATION OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. NOT GOING TO MENTION ANY FOG WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BASICALLY INCREASE IN RELATION TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AVIATION AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE TOMORROW AS WELL...WHEN A NOTICEABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEEP MIXING AS INDICATED BY THE NAM. WE ARE LOOKING AT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-2O MPH ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO EASE UP AROUND 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING.

WE WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A HIGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE HAD
IN ABOUT 10 DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRI-CITES WHICH HAVE NOT HIT
THE MID 80S SINCE SEPTEMBER 9TH. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TRI-CITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ALOFT: LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY FRI EVENING DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
WRN N AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND THEN ADVANCE INTO CNTRL N AMERICA MON-
TUE AND THEN TO THE E WED-FRI. THE TROF CURRENTLY OFF CA WILL CLOSE
WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS
TROF /CURRENTLY MOVING THRU WA-OR/ WILL MOVE THRU HERE 12AM-12PM
SAT. BY 00Z/TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE LOW OVER WY AND THEN
INTO SD/NEB TUE-WED. THIS IS FURTHER N THAN 24 HRS AGO. BY WED OF
NEXT WEEK THE NE PACIFIC TROF WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.
MODELS ARE AT ODDS ON HOW THIS EVOLVES.

SURFACE: BY SUNSET FRI THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU
THE WILL BE OVER ND/SD/WY AT 7 PM/FRI. THIS FRONT WILL SAG THRU THE
FCST AREA AND WILL BE JUST S AND E BY 1 PM/SAT. CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN BEHIND...SLIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS SUN...THE MIDWEST
MON-TUE...AND THE ERN USA WED-THU.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE A COUPLE TSTMS DEVELOP NW-N-NE OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THEM SAGGING SE INTO S-CNTRL NEB. VERY LIMITED
QPF AND LOW SREF PROBABILITIES FOR .01" ALL SUGGEST VERY LIMITED
TSTM COVERAGE.

SAT: A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER S OF HWY 6 WITH THE "BEST" CHANCE
OVER N-CNTRL KS. STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVERALL. THE
FRONT WILL BE THRU BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MEANING THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE S AND E OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS
WILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUN: VERY VERY NICE. GET OUT AND ENJOY IT. SUNNY/NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

MON: THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT COULD MEANDER E INTO THE
FCST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT
CONTINUED WAA/MOISTENING COULD MAINTAIN TSTMS DURING THE DAY OVER
THE PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS.

TUE-WED: SAME SCENARIO. RETURN FLOW/LLJ/SUSTAINED WAA AND RICH
MOISTURE INCREASING. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. SO
SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW.

TEMPS LOOK QUITE COOL BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER...KEAR WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CEILING TO BE BROKEN AROUND 2000 FT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KGRI WILL MISS OUT ON THESE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...GUERRERO




000
FXUS63 KLBF 181804
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
104 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO
NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING FROM NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEBR AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA REPORTING MAINLY LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
AT THE KBBW ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WHILE LOW
VISIBILITY OF 1/4-1/2SM AT KBBW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3-5 SM OR
HIGHER. AREAS TO PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 15Z.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A NEARLY
SATURATED H9-H85 LAYER PRESENT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO EXIT MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE BY 18Z...WHILE
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE NAM AND
06Z RAP MODEL. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS WITH MUCH
HIGHER MOS GUIDANCE. USING 00Z SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BLENDED WITH
THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE TO REFLECT COOLER HIGHS. WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS ACROSS WRN TIER OF COUNTIES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
ATTAINABLE. MID 70S FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SERN
ZONES. ALSO INCREASED PERCENT SKY COVER TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 25C. THIS
WILL CAUSE LINGERING STRATUS THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AND DISPERSE AFTER 06Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS RANGING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLE WARM DAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW
S DAKOTA ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WYOMING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
SHOULD MIX OUT ANY BL MOISTURE FOG/STRATUS. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
20S C AND MOS GUIDANCE WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S.
SHOULD SEE SOME A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
SO KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE. COLD FRONT WILL WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
MILD OVERNIGHT.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST
IN THE MORNING. SOME SUN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS REBOUND TO
AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TO SLOWLY TREND DOWN THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...HOWEVER
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP WEST OF THE CWA.

NEXT WEEK THE HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING A RETURN OF MORE MOISTURE. A DISTURBANCE SHOULD RIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH 850 TEMPS ON THE
RISE...CLOUDS /ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE/ LIKELY TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM JUMPING UP TO MUCH. GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEASONAL MID
70S...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR AND LOCAL IFR WILL PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS IN
SPOTS. AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BECOME SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR







000
FXUS63 KLBF 181804
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
104 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO
NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING FROM NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEBR AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA REPORTING MAINLY LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
AT THE KBBW ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WHILE LOW
VISIBILITY OF 1/4-1/2SM AT KBBW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3-5 SM OR
HIGHER. AREAS TO PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 15Z.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A NEARLY
SATURATED H9-H85 LAYER PRESENT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO EXIT MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE BY 18Z...WHILE
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE NAM AND
06Z RAP MODEL. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS WITH MUCH
HIGHER MOS GUIDANCE. USING 00Z SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BLENDED WITH
THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE TO REFLECT COOLER HIGHS. WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS ACROSS WRN TIER OF COUNTIES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
ATTAINABLE. MID 70S FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SERN
ZONES. ALSO INCREASED PERCENT SKY COVER TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 25C. THIS
WILL CAUSE LINGERING STRATUS THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AND DISPERSE AFTER 06Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS RANGING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLE WARM DAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW
S DAKOTA ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WYOMING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
SHOULD MIX OUT ANY BL MOISTURE FOG/STRATUS. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
20S C AND MOS GUIDANCE WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S.
SHOULD SEE SOME A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
SO KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE. COLD FRONT WILL WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
MILD OVERNIGHT.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST
IN THE MORNING. SOME SUN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS REBOUND TO
AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TO SLOWLY TREND DOWN THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...HOWEVER
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP WEST OF THE CWA.

NEXT WEEK THE HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING A RETURN OF MORE MOISTURE. A DISTURBANCE SHOULD RIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH 850 TEMPS ON THE
RISE...CLOUDS /ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE/ LIKELY TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM JUMPING UP TO MUCH. GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEASONAL MID
70S...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR AND LOCAL IFR WILL PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS IN
SPOTS. AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BECOME SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR






000
FXUS63 KGID 181753
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS OUR NC KS COUNTIES EARLIER TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND A BIT OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY BOUNDARY AFFECT
THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
THE RESULT IS E/SERLY WINDS...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SO WINDS ARE LIGHT...IF NOT CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS DISCUSSED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...FOG AND
STRATUS IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MANY AUTOMATED SITES ARE DROPPING NEAR OR TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE...AND LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE...SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS FOR LOCATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF STRATUS.

THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SE
OF THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM THIS MORNING...KEPT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IS SET UP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION...A FEW MODELS TRY TO DEPICT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASED
LLJ SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
HAPPENING TO INSERT A POP AT THIS POINT.

AT THE SFC...EXPECTING TO SEE A TRANSITION IN WINDS FROM EASTERLY
TO MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING
UP OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE E/SE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
SPEEDS...WHICH LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HOW
QUICKLY THIS MORNINGS FOG AND STRATUS LIFTS MAKES THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY ONE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN HIGH SIN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOWER/MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SWRN CORNER.
THOSE CLOUD/FOG TRENDS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
CLOSELY MONITOR...AND POTENTIALLY MAY NEED TO ADJUST FORECAST
HIGHS. FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT FALL IN TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WHAT LOOKED LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY A FEW DAYS AGO.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. AS THIS COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO BE
REALIZED...WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE...AS THERE WILL BE JUST OVER 1000 JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 70S TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
DURING THE WORKWEEK...THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT
SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA TO
REMAIN DRY BASES ON CURRENT GUIDANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER...KEAR WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CEILING TO BE BROKEN AROUND 2000 FT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KGRI WILL MISS OUT ON THESE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...GUERRERO




000
FXUS63 KGID 181753
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS OUR NC KS COUNTIES EARLIER TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND A BIT OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY BOUNDARY AFFECT
THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
THE RESULT IS E/SERLY WINDS...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SO WINDS ARE LIGHT...IF NOT CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS DISCUSSED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...FOG AND
STRATUS IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MANY AUTOMATED SITES ARE DROPPING NEAR OR TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE...AND LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE...SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS FOR LOCATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF STRATUS.

THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SE
OF THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM THIS MORNING...KEPT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IS SET UP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION...A FEW MODELS TRY TO DEPICT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASED
LLJ SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
HAPPENING TO INSERT A POP AT THIS POINT.

AT THE SFC...EXPECTING TO SEE A TRANSITION IN WINDS FROM EASTERLY
TO MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING
UP OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE E/SE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
SPEEDS...WHICH LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HOW
QUICKLY THIS MORNINGS FOG AND STRATUS LIFTS MAKES THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY ONE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN HIGH SIN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOWER/MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SWRN CORNER.
THOSE CLOUD/FOG TRENDS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
CLOSELY MONITOR...AND POTENTIALLY MAY NEED TO ADJUST FORECAST
HIGHS. FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT FALL IN TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WHAT LOOKED LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY A FEW DAYS AGO.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. AS THIS COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO BE
REALIZED...WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE...AS THERE WILL BE JUST OVER 1000 JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 70S TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
DURING THE WORKWEEK...THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT
SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA TO
REMAIN DRY BASES ON CURRENT GUIDANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER...KEAR WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CEILING TO BE BROKEN AROUND 2000 FT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KGRI WILL MISS OUT ON THESE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...GUERRERO




000
FXUS63 KGID 181753
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS OUR NC KS COUNTIES EARLIER TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND A BIT OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY BOUNDARY AFFECT
THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
THE RESULT IS E/SERLY WINDS...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SO WINDS ARE LIGHT...IF NOT CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS DISCUSSED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...FOG AND
STRATUS IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MANY AUTOMATED SITES ARE DROPPING NEAR OR TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE...AND LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE...SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS FOR LOCATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF STRATUS.

THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SE
OF THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM THIS MORNING...KEPT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IS SET UP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION...A FEW MODELS TRY TO DEPICT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASED
LLJ SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
HAPPENING TO INSERT A POP AT THIS POINT.

AT THE SFC...EXPECTING TO SEE A TRANSITION IN WINDS FROM EASTERLY
TO MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING
UP OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE E/SE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
SPEEDS...WHICH LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HOW
QUICKLY THIS MORNINGS FOG AND STRATUS LIFTS MAKES THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY ONE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN HIGH SIN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOWER/MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SWRN CORNER.
THOSE CLOUD/FOG TRENDS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
CLOSELY MONITOR...AND POTENTIALLY MAY NEED TO ADJUST FORECAST
HIGHS. FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT FALL IN TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WHAT LOOKED LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY A FEW DAYS AGO.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. AS THIS COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO BE
REALIZED...WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE...AS THERE WILL BE JUST OVER 1000 JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 70S TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
DURING THE WORKWEEK...THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT
SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA TO
REMAIN DRY BASES ON CURRENT GUIDANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER...KEAR WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CEILING TO BE BROKEN AROUND 2000 FT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KGRI WILL MISS OUT ON THESE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...GUERRERO




000
FXUS63 KGID 181753
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS OUR NC KS COUNTIES EARLIER TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND A BIT OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY BOUNDARY AFFECT
THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
THE RESULT IS E/SERLY WINDS...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SO WINDS ARE LIGHT...IF NOT CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS DISCUSSED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...FOG AND
STRATUS IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MANY AUTOMATED SITES ARE DROPPING NEAR OR TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE...AND LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE...SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS FOR LOCATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF STRATUS.

THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SE
OF THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM THIS MORNING...KEPT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IS SET UP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION...A FEW MODELS TRY TO DEPICT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASED
LLJ SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
HAPPENING TO INSERT A POP AT THIS POINT.

AT THE SFC...EXPECTING TO SEE A TRANSITION IN WINDS FROM EASTERLY
TO MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING
UP OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE E/SE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
SPEEDS...WHICH LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HOW
QUICKLY THIS MORNINGS FOG AND STRATUS LIFTS MAKES THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY ONE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN HIGH SIN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOWER/MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SWRN CORNER.
THOSE CLOUD/FOG TRENDS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
CLOSELY MONITOR...AND POTENTIALLY MAY NEED TO ADJUST FORECAST
HIGHS. FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT FALL IN TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WHAT LOOKED LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY A FEW DAYS AGO.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. AS THIS COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO BE
REALIZED...WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE...AS THERE WILL BE JUST OVER 1000 JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 70S TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
DURING THE WORKWEEK...THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT
SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA TO
REMAIN DRY BASES ON CURRENT GUIDANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER...KEAR WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CEILING TO BE BROKEN AROUND 2000 FT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KGRI WILL MISS OUT ON THESE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...GUERRERO




000
FXUS63 KOAX 181732
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OF THESE SUBTLE
WAVES...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND US...EXCEPT
TO THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNRISE IS LOW AS TO HOW MUCH FOG
WE WILL SEE...BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ON US FROM THE
OUTER EDGES.  CLOSE TEMP/DEW POINT  SPREADS AND WEAK EASTERLY SFC
FLOW SHOULD WARRANT AT LEAST A PATCHY MENTION IN ALL AREAS THROUGH
SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS CLOSELY AND MAKE ANY LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AIDED BY A 35-40KT LLVL JET. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AROUND THE 301K SFC IS MAXIMIZED AND HAVE CONTINUED SMALL POPS FOR
THIS.

WE WILL HAVE A WARM START TO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S. FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME
TEMPS EASILY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AHEAD OF A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN AVN ISSUE IS POSSIBLE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING.
CURRENT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING BOTH KOFK/KOMA DROPPING INTO IFR
TERRITORY SOMETIME BTWN 10Z-12Z...AND KLNK TO MVFR CONDITIONS.
OVERALL THOUGH...HAVE NOT BEEN TOO IMPRESSED LATELY WITH MODEL
TEMP/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS THE LAST COUPLE MORNINGS.
HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY DISREGARD WORSENING FLIGHT CAT...SO HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE EARLY MORNING TEMPO GROUPS/MVFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 181732
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OF THESE SUBTLE
WAVES...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND US...EXCEPT
TO THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNRISE IS LOW AS TO HOW MUCH FOG
WE WILL SEE...BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ON US FROM THE
OUTER EDGES.  CLOSE TEMP/DEW POINT  SPREADS AND WEAK EASTERLY SFC
FLOW SHOULD WARRANT AT LEAST A PATCHY MENTION IN ALL AREAS THROUGH
SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS CLOSELY AND MAKE ANY LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AIDED BY A 35-40KT LLVL JET. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AROUND THE 301K SFC IS MAXIMIZED AND HAVE CONTINUED SMALL POPS FOR
THIS.

WE WILL HAVE A WARM START TO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S. FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME
TEMPS EASILY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AHEAD OF A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN AVN ISSUE IS POSSIBLE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING.
CURRENT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING BOTH KOFK/KOMA DROPPING INTO IFR
TERRITORY SOMETIME BTWN 10Z-12Z...AND KLNK TO MVFR CONDITIONS.
OVERALL THOUGH...HAVE NOT BEEN TOO IMPRESSED LATELY WITH MODEL
TEMP/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS THE LAST COUPLE MORNINGS.
HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY DISREGARD WORSENING FLIGHT CAT...SO HAVE
OPTED TO INCLUDE EARLY MORNING TEMPO GROUPS/MVFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KLBF 181200
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
700 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO
NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING FROM NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEBR AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA REPORTING MAINLY LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
AT THE KBBW ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WHILE LOW
VISIBILITY OF 1/4-1/2SM AT KBBW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3-5 SM OR
HIGHER. AREAS TO PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 15Z.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A NEARLY
SATURATED H9-H85 LAYER PRESENT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO EXIT MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE BY 18Z...WHILE
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE NAM AND
06Z RAP MODEL. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS WITH MUCH
HIGHER MOS GUIDANCE. USING 00Z SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BLENDED WITH
THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE TO REFLECT COOLER HIGHS. WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS ACROSS WRN TIER OF COUNTIES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
ATTAINABLE. MID 70S FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SERN
ZONES. ALSO INCREASED PERCENT SKY COVER TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 25C. THIS
WILL CAUSE LINGERING STRATUS THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AND DISPERSE AFTER 06Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS RANGING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLE WARM DAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW
S DAKOTA ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WYOMING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
SHOULD MIX OUT ANY BL MOISTURE FOG/STRATUS. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
20S C AND MOS GUIDANCE WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S.
SHOULD SEE SOME A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
SO KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE. COLD FRONT WILL WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
MILD OVERNIGHT.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST
IN THE MORNING. SOME SUN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS REBOUND TO
AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TO SLOWLY TREND DOWN THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...HOWEVER
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP WEST OF THE CWA.

NEXT WEEK THE HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING A RETURN OF MORE MOISTURE. A DISTURBANCE SHOULD RIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH 850 TEMPS ON THE
RISE...CLOUDS /ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE/ LIKELY TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM JUMPING UP TO MUCH. GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEASONAL MID
70S...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KLBF SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER 15Z. STRTUS
AND FOG HAS ALSO MOVED INTO KVTN PRIOR TO 12Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. A RETURN TO IFR IS POSSIBLE BY 03Z
19TH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 181200
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
700 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO
NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING FROM NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEBR AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA REPORTING MAINLY LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
AT THE KBBW ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WHILE LOW
VISIBILITY OF 1/4-1/2SM AT KBBW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3-5 SM OR
HIGHER. AREAS TO PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 15Z.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A NEARLY
SATURATED H9-H85 LAYER PRESENT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO EXIT MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE BY 18Z...WHILE
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE NAM AND
06Z RAP MODEL. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS WITH MUCH
HIGHER MOS GUIDANCE. USING 00Z SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BLENDED WITH
THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE TO REFLECT COOLER HIGHS. WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS ACROSS WRN TIER OF COUNTIES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
ATTAINABLE. MID 70S FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SERN
ZONES. ALSO INCREASED PERCENT SKY COVER TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 25C. THIS
WILL CAUSE LINGERING STRATUS THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AND DISPERSE AFTER 06Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS RANGING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLE WARM DAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW
S DAKOTA ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WYOMING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
SHOULD MIX OUT ANY BL MOISTURE FOG/STRATUS. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
20S C AND MOS GUIDANCE WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S.
SHOULD SEE SOME A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
SO KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE. COLD FRONT WILL WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
MILD OVERNIGHT.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST
IN THE MORNING. SOME SUN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS REBOUND TO
AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TO SLOWLY TREND DOWN THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...HOWEVER
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP WEST OF THE CWA.

NEXT WEEK THE HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING A RETURN OF MORE MOISTURE. A DISTURBANCE SHOULD RIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH 850 TEMPS ON THE
RISE...CLOUDS /ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE/ LIKELY TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM JUMPING UP TO MUCH. GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEASONAL MID
70S...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KLBF SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER 15Z. STRTUS
AND FOG HAS ALSO MOVED INTO KVTN PRIOR TO 12Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. A RETURN TO IFR IS POSSIBLE BY 03Z
19TH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KOAX 181124
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OF THESE SUBTLE
WAVES...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND US...EXCEPT
TO THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNRISE IS LOW AS TO HOW MUCH FOG
WE WILL SEE...BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ON US FROM THE
OUTER EDGES.  CLOSE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND WEAK EASTERLY SFC
FLOW SHOULD WARRANT AT LEAST A PATCHY MENTION IN ALL AREAS THROUGH
SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS CLOSELY AND MAKE ANY LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AIDED BY A 35-40KT LLVL JET. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AROUND THE 301K SFC IS MAXIMIZED AND HAVE CONTINUED SMALL POPS FOR
THIS.

WE WILL HAVE A WARM START TO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S. FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME
TEMPS EASILY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AHEAD OF A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAD ADVANCED NORTHWARD
ACROSS KLNK AND WERE NEAR BOTH KOMA AND KOFK AS OF 1120Z. VSBYS
UPSTREAM FROM KOMA RANGE FROM 1/4 MILE TO 7 MILES. DID NOT
MENTION ANY -DZ BUT THERE MAY BE SOME AROUND WITH THE FOG. WE
DO EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 181124
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OF THESE SUBTLE
WAVES...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND US...EXCEPT
TO THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNRISE IS LOW AS TO HOW MUCH FOG
WE WILL SEE...BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ON US FROM THE
OUTER EDGES.  CLOSE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND WEAK EASTERLY SFC
FLOW SHOULD WARRANT AT LEAST A PATCHY MENTION IN ALL AREAS THROUGH
SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS CLOSELY AND MAKE ANY LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AIDED BY A 35-40KT LLVL JET. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AROUND THE 301K SFC IS MAXIMIZED AND HAVE CONTINUED SMALL POPS FOR
THIS.

WE WILL HAVE A WARM START TO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S. FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME
TEMPS EASILY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AHEAD OF A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAD ADVANCED NORTHWARD
ACROSS KLNK AND WERE NEAR BOTH KOMA AND KOFK AS OF 1120Z. VSBYS
UPSTREAM FROM KOMA RANGE FROM 1/4 MILE TO 7 MILES. DID NOT
MENTION ANY -DZ BUT THERE MAY BE SOME AROUND WITH THE FOG. WE
DO EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KGID 181049
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
549 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS OUR NC KS COUNTIES EARLIER TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND A BIT OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY BOUNDARY AFFECT
THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
THE RESULT IS E/SERLY WINDS...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SO WINDS ARE LIGHT...IF NOT CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS DISCUSSED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...FOG AND
STRATUS IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MANY AUTOMATED SITES ARE DROPPING NEAR OR TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE...AND LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE...SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS FOR LOCATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF STRATUS.

THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SE
OF THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM THIS MORNING...KEPT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IS SET UP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION...A FEW MODELS TRY TO DEPICT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASED
LLJ SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
HAPPENING TO INSERT A POP AT THIS POINT.

AT THE SFC...EXPECTING TO SEE A TRANSITION IN WINDS FROM EASTERLY
TO MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING
UP OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE E/SE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
SPEEDS...WHICH LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HOW
QUICKLY THIS MORNINGS FOG AND STRATUS LIFTS MAKES THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY ONE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN HIGH SIN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOWER/MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SWRN CORNER.
THOSE CLOUD/FOG TRENDS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
CLOSELY MONITOR...AND POTENTIALLY MAY NEED TO ADJUST FORECAST
HIGHS. FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT FALL IN TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WHAT LOOKED LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY A FEW DAYS AGO.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. AS THIS COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO BE
REALIZED...WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE...AS THERE WILL BE JUST OVER 1000 JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 70S TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
DURING THE WORKWEEK...THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT
SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA TO
REMAIN DRY BASES ON CURRENT GUIDANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS IN THE UPCOMING
HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG HAVE EXPANDED
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND HAS RESULTED IN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINAL AREAS. HIRES/SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND KEPT
THOSE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THERE AT LEAST ON A TEMPO BASIS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING...AND HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH LATER
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY...WITH SPEEDS NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KGID 181049
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
549 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS OUR NC KS COUNTIES EARLIER TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND A BIT OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY BOUNDARY AFFECT
THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
THE RESULT IS E/SERLY WINDS...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SO WINDS ARE LIGHT...IF NOT CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS DISCUSSED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...FOG AND
STRATUS IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MANY AUTOMATED SITES ARE DROPPING NEAR OR TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE...AND LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE...SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS FOR LOCATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF STRATUS.

THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SE
OF THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM THIS MORNING...KEPT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IS SET UP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION...A FEW MODELS TRY TO DEPICT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASED
LLJ SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
HAPPENING TO INSERT A POP AT THIS POINT.

AT THE SFC...EXPECTING TO SEE A TRANSITION IN WINDS FROM EASTERLY
TO MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING
UP OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE E/SE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
SPEEDS...WHICH LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HOW
QUICKLY THIS MORNINGS FOG AND STRATUS LIFTS MAKES THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY ONE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN HIGH SIN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOWER/MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SWRN CORNER.
THOSE CLOUD/FOG TRENDS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
CLOSELY MONITOR...AND POTENTIALLY MAY NEED TO ADJUST FORECAST
HIGHS. FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT FALL IN TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WHAT LOOKED LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY A FEW DAYS AGO.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. AS THIS COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO BE
REALIZED...WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE...AS THERE WILL BE JUST OVER 1000 JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 70S TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
DURING THE WORKWEEK...THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT
SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA TO
REMAIN DRY BASES ON CURRENT GUIDANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS IN THE UPCOMING
HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG HAVE EXPANDED
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND HAS RESULTED IN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINAL AREAS. HIRES/SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND KEPT
THOSE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THERE AT LEAST ON A TEMPO BASIS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING...AND HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH LATER
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY...WITH SPEEDS NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP




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