Home > Products > State Listing > Nebraska Data
Latest:
 AFDLBF |  AFDGID |  AFDOAX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLBF 242340
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
640 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

H5 analysis from this morning had a closed low over central
Washington...with low amplitude ridging over the central and
northern plains.  A low amplitude trough encompassed much of New
England and eastern Canada.  Weak shortwaves are noted east of the
forecast area near the Missouri Valley...atop the northern periphery
of the northern plains ridge and one nearing central Colorado.  A
couple storms are beginning to develop over the front range and
south central Colorado Rockies...but otherwise very little activity
is noted.  At the surface a trough lies just east of the Rockies
with a warm front extending southeast from low pressure in the
western Dakotas through eastern Nebraska.  A cold front from the low
extends southwest across west central Wyoming into far northwest
SDak. Temperatures as of 2pm CDT range from the mid 80s at KONL...to
100F at KCDR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

It will be hot and humid ahead of an approaching trough moving off
the front range. Thunderstorms will initiate under the trough and
eventually work their way east this evening. Some of the storms
could have strong winds and some hail due to some decent
instability, especially at the mid levels that will be tapped once
we reach peak heating and dynamic support from the trough arrives.
Bulk shear looks weak however the low level jet kicking in should
help sustain the storms into the night time hours. Multicell
clusters look to be the most likely thunderstorm mode, especially by
the time the storms arrive into the eastern panhandle this evening,
and into central Nebraska tonight.

A dry cold front will move through from northwest to southeast very
early in the morning on Saturday, ushering in cooler temperatures,
in the 80s, and a rain free day for most. There could be a few
showers early over eastern portions of the forecast area but
redevlopment of showers or storms in the afternoon is not expected.
Northwest winds will be breezy behind the front with widespread
gusts over 20 mph common.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Beginning 00z Sunday.  The cold front will be east of the forecast
area to start off the extended with the showers and storms east
along the front.  Thus a dry forecast is anticipated into Sunday
evening.  Cooler Canadian high pressure will settle overhead Sunday
morning leading to lows mainly in the 50s...but a few upper 40s will
be possible over northwest Nebraska.  Isolated or scattered storms
will be possible Sunday evening across western portions of the cwa
as a disturbance lifts through the region.  The EC and Nam continues
to highlight the qpf chances...with the GFS now latching onto a
similar solution.  Will expand the coverage of chances to much of
the forecast area overnight with the development of a LLJ.  The
possibility of additional showers/storms will last into Monday as
the upper level pattern transitions from a westerly to northwesterly
component and additional disturbances pass through.  Convective
parameters only indicate a marginal threat of a strong or severe
storm with the better instability arriving to our south on Monday.

Beyond Monday the work week will remain active as the prevailing
northwest flow directs several disturbances through the region.  The
best shot at widespread qpf arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a nocturnal LLJ develops and a strong disturbance dives
southeast through the region.  Will maintain high end chance and low
end likely pops given by the blended procedure during that time
period.

Clouds would potentially play spoiler role for temperatures through
the work week...but at this point...seasonal to slightly above
average temperatures can be expected through the extended as most
days will see more sun than clouds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Vfr conditions forecast at the klbf and kvtn terminals the next 24
hrs. While there will be at least a slight chance for thunderstorms
tonight...latest models keep storm activity across the western
northwest sandhills and away for both terminals. A cold front will
move through kvtn and klbf after 14z saturday with gusty nw to ne
winds up to 24 kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

No snow remains below 10kft in the North and South Platte regions
and runoff season has effectively ended. The North Platte River at
North Platte and Lewellen have fallen below flood stage as releases
from Lake McConaughy continue to decrease. It is expected to remain
within action stage through at least early next week.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jacobs
SHORT TERM...Allen
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Roberg
HYDROLOGY...Allen



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGID 242339
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
639 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Been a quiet afternoon across the CWA today, with most locations
seeing plenty of sunshine. At the surface, gusty south-
southeasterly winds are in place across the area, sitting ahead of
low pressure over western SD and a trough axis draped south
along the High Plains. Sustained speeds have generally been around
15 MPH, with gusts near 25 MPH at times. No big surprises with
temps, with 3 pm obs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Aloft,
upper air and satellite data show generally zonal flow in place
across the region, with broad, flattened high pressure over the
south/southeastern CONUS. Embedded in this flow are weak shortwave
disturbances, with scattered activity over eastern KS and portions
of WY/CO. Looking at the rest of this afternoon/early evening,
possible that far southeastern portions of the CWA could get
clipped with some thunderstorms, but for the remainder of the CWA,
hi-res models show little (if anything?) occurring (SPC Meso page
showing mid level temps of 12- 14C). Later this evening/overnight,
the hi-res models go back and forth with how much thunderstorm
activity affects our area. No notable forcing aloft, but models do
continue to show a stronger southerly LLJ (40+ kts) nosing into
the region. At this point, overall coverage doesn`t look to be
widespread.

Looking at satellite imagery, the feature of interest for
Saturday/Saturday night currently spins over the Pac NW. There
hasn`t been any notable changes in models with the progression of
this upper level low, which continues pushing mainly east (a
touch northeast) tonight, ending up over the MT/Canada border by
12Z Sat. That E-NE trend continues Sat/Sat night, ending up over
southeastern Manitoba pre-dawn Sunday morning. Accompanying this
system will be a surface "cold" front (the main impact will be
with lower dpts and NWrly winds), which will be knocking on the
door of the NWrn CWA at 12Z Saturday. Hasn`t been a lot of change
in the most recent run of models with the timing of this front as
it moves through, but some ever-so-slight differences do remain.
This frontal boundary will be the focus for thunderstorm
development mid-late afternoon, though low chance PoPs remain in
the forecast prior to that (lingering from tonight). Main question
lies with whether the activity develops across central portions of
the CWA, or holds off a bit and affects mainly the southeastern
third or so of the CWA. Overall, adjustments to forecast PoPs were
minor, though did bump the southeast up 00- 03Z. The brunt of the
activity looks to exit to the south by midnight, but did continue
some lingering low pops from 06-12Z. Strong/severe thunderstorms
remain a concern, MLCAPE values pushing 2500 j/kg are possible,
and deeper layer shear is a bit better. Will keep HWO mention as
is with golf balls/60 MPH. As far as highs go for tomorrow, warmer
temps aloft/better mixing should result in mid/upper 90s in the
southeast, but further north behind the front will likely top out
in the lower/mid 80s. Will be dependent on the timing of the
front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

For Sunday and Sunday night, have dry conditions returning to the
forecast. Models are in good agreement at 12z Sunday, showing
zonal flow in the upper levels, sitting south of the main low
starting to move into Ontario. Not expecting much change in that
through the day and evening, but overnight, high pressure over the
western third of the CONUS will start to build a bit, resulting in
more northwesterly flow across the Central Plains. At the surface,
higher pressure builds in behind the Saturday`s frontal passage,
with models in decent agreement showing the front settling in over
central/southern KS. Thinking is that the better chances for any
precipitation will remain just south of the CWA during the day.
Easterly upslope flow looks to bring thunderstorms to the
Rockies/High Plains, with the question becoming whether or not any
of that activity makes it far enough east to affect our area. Most
models show things diminishing before it gets that far. Even with
the front passing through Saturday, not looking at a notable
airmass change, with highs on Sunday in the upper 80s.

Monday through Wednesday night is the time frame with the best
chances for showers/thunderstorms. There is good agreement among
models showing the upper level pattern and northwesterly flow
amplifying across the Central Plains as high pressure/ridging
builds further north into the Rockies. Driving precipitation
chances will be shortwave disturbances riding around the edge of
the ridge, so this far out, there remains some uncertainties with
exact timing/location. At this point, the overall best chance for
widespread precipitation looks to come Wednesday and Wednesday
night, with models showing a sizable MCS sliding through the
region. Prior to that, chances are more iffy, but cannot
completely rule any period out. Severe weather will be a concern,
difficult to pin down specifics at this point. Currently have the
forecast drying out for Thursday and Friday, but confidence in
that, especially for Friday, isn`t the highest.

As far as temperatures go, a cooler airmass aloft is shown by
models to build into the region, starting already Monday night
as a backdoor front is pushed south by a stronger wave moving
through the Great Lakes, and aided by a reinforcing push from the
disturbance Wednesday/Wed night. Wednesday may end up being the
coolest day of the period, depending on the timing of the
precipitation chances, with forecast highs in the mid 70s to mid
80s. Lower to mid 80s are in the forecast for Tues-Thur-Fri, with
warmer temps for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF Period.

For tonight there is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
after midnight but confidence is low so have held off on a VCTS
mention at this time. There is a chance for strong low level wind
shear to develop overnight associated with a strong low-level jet
stream. Wind speeds of 40-50 mph are possible at 1000ft before
eventually weakening into the morning hours.

The next focus is the timing of the front moving through the area
as winds switch from southerly to northerly between 17Z and 21Z.
There is also a chance for showers and thunderstorms to form along
the front but confidence of one hitting the terminal is low at
this time.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Eddy/Petr



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KOAX 242336
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
636 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The primary forecast concerns in the short term are the timing and
intensity of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.

The main features in the large scale pattern were a fairly
impressive trough over the Pacific Northwest and high heights across
the southern part of the CONUS. There was weak ridging from the
central plains up into Manitoba. A jet max of 110 knots at 300 mb
was noted from Oregon into far western Montana at 12z. Temperatures
at 500 mb were as cold as -23C with the closed low over Washington
state. Thermal ridge at 700 mb stretched from southern California up
into western South Dakota. Decent moisture was in place at 850 mb
and at the surface from Texas up into the eastern Dakotas.

The area of thicker cloud cover and spotty showers which moved over
parts of northeast Nebraska had lifted into northwest Iowa by mid
afternoon. The thunderstorms over northeast Kansas had been trying
to move into southeast Nebraska...but did not have much success
through early afternoon. Expect some isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the southeast half of the forecast
area tonight. Activity could also develop over the high plains and
move into the area later tonight.

Morning activity should decrease Saturday...with the atmosphere
becoming quite unstable in the afternoon. 12z GFS showed 0-500 meter
ML CAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg over all of southwest Iowa and
much of eastern Nebraska by mid afternoon (values should drop off
quickly though northwest of a line from about Columbus to Sioux
City. The most favorable combination of shear and instability for
organized severe storms will be from Minnesota into Wisconsin.
However...forecast soundings in our area look favorable for
hail...gusty winds and heavy rain. Precipitable water values should
exceed 2 inches at most locations in the afternoon and evening. The
moisture plume currently extending from Mexico up into Colorado
should be over our area Saturday afternoon and evening. We have rain
chances dropping off late Saturday night from northwest to
southeast...and that trend still looks good.

Rain chances look too low to mention from Sunday into Sunday
night...but did keep a slight chance of thunderstorms for parts of
the area on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Trends in this period remain about the same. Our area should be in
northwest flow at the start of the period...with a strong mid
tropospheric ridge centered over southern Utah. At least the first
few days in this period should have highs below normal...with highs
inching back to near or above normal by Friday. Impulses in the
northwest flow will be difficult to accurately time. For now...it
appears that a fairly strong disturbance will bring us a modest
chance for thunderstorms from Tuesday night into Wednesday night.
This could be a setup that would cause excessive rain and flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions outside of showers and thunderstorms through the
period. Small tsra chances tonight and Saturday morning with a
better chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
with the cold front. Included tsra mention at all three sites
after 17-21z. Brisk south winds 10 to 20kts decreasing to 10 to
14kts this evening. Did include LLWS at all three sites tonight
through early Saturday morning.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Zapotocny




000
FXUS63 KGID 242036
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
336 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Been a quiet afternoon across the CWA today, with most locations
seeing plenty of sunshine. At the surface, gusty south-
southeasterly winds are in place across the area, sitting ahead of
low pressure over western SD and a trough axis draped south
along the High Plains. Sustained speeds have generally been around
15 MPH, with gusts near 25 MPH at times. No big surprises with
temps, with 3 pm obs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Aloft,
upper air and satellite data show generally zonal flow in place
across the region, with broad, flattened high pressure over the
south/southeastern CONUS. Embedded in this flow are weak shortwave
disturbances, with scattered activity over eastern KS and portions
of WY/CO. Looking at the rest of this afternoon/early evening,
possible that far southeastern portions of the CWA could get
clipped with some thunderstorms, but for the remainder of the CWA,
hi-res models show little (if anything?) occurring (SPC Meso page
showing mid level temps of 12- 14C). Later this evening/overnight,
the hi-res models go back and forth with how much thunderstorm
activity affects our area. No notable forcing aloft, but models do
continue to show a stronger southerly LLJ (40+ kts) nosing into
the region. At this point, overall coverage doesn`t look to be
widespread.

Looking at satellite imagery, the feature of interest for
Saturday/Saturday night currently spins over the Pac NW. There
hasn`t been any notable changes in models with the progression of
this upper level low, which continues pushing mainly east (a
touch northeast) tonight, ending up over the MT/Canada border by
12Z Sat. That E-NE trend continues Sat/Sat night, ending up over
southeastern Manitoba pre-dawn Sunday morning. Accompanying this
system will be a surface "cold" front (the main impact will be
with lower dpts and NWrly winds), which will be knocking on the
door of the NWrn CWA at 12Z Saturday. Hasn`t been a lot of change
in the most recent run of models with the timing of this front as
it moves through, but some ever-so-slight differences do remain.
This frontal boundary will be the focus for thunderstorm
development mid-late afternoon, though low chance PoPs remain in
the forecast prior to that (lingering from tonight). Main question
lies with whether the activity develops across central portions of
the CWA, or holds off a bit and affects mainly the southeastern
third or so of the CWA. Overall, adjustments to forecast PoPs were
minor, though did bump the southeast up 00- 03Z. The brunt of the
activity looks to exit to the south by midnight, but did continue
some lingering low pops from 06-12Z. Strong/severe thunderstorms
remain a concern, MLCAPE values pushing 2500 j/kg are possible,
and deeper layer shear is a bit better. Will keep HWO mention as
is with golf balls/60 MPH. As far as highs go for tomorrow, warmer
temps aloft/better mixing should result in mid/upper 90s in the
southeast, but further north behind the front will likely top out
in the lower/mid 80s. Will be dependent on the timing of the
front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

For Sunday and Sunday night, have dry conditions returning to the
forecast. Models are in good agreement at 12z Sunday, showing
zonal flow in the upper levels, sitting south of the main low
starting to move into Ontario. Not expecting much change in that
through the day and evening, but overnight, high pressure over the
western third of the CONUS will start to build a bit, resulting in
more northwesterly flow across the Central Plains. At the surface,
higher pressure builds in behind the Saturday`s frontal passage,
with models in decent agreement showing the front settling in over
central/southern KS. Thinking is that the better chances for any
precipitation will remain just south of the CWA during the day.
Easterly upslope flow looks to bring thunderstorms to the
Rockies/High Plains, with the question becoming whether or not any
of that activity makes it far enough east to affect our area. Most
models show things diminishing before it gets that far. Even with
the front passing through Saturday, not looking at a notable
airmass change, with highs on Sunday in the upper 80s.

Monday through Wednesday night is the time frame with the best
chances for showers/thunderstorms. There is good agreement among
models showing the upper level pattern and northwesterly flow
amplifying across the Central Plains as high pressure/ridging
builds further north into the Rockies. Driving precipitation
chances will be shortwave disturbances riding around the edge of
the ridge, so this far out, there remains some uncertainties with
exact timing/location. At this point, the overall best chance for
widespread precipitation looks to come Wednesday and Wednesday
night, with models showing a sizable MCS sliding through the
region. Prior to that, chances are more iffy, but cannot
completely rule any period out. Severe weather will be a concern,
difficult to pin down specifics at this point. Currently have the
forecast drying out for Thursday and Friday, but confidence in
that, especially for Friday, isn`t the highest.

As far as temperatures go, a cooler airmass aloft is shown by
models to build into the region, starting already Monday night
as a backdoor front is pushed south by a stronger wave moving
through the Great Lakes, and aided by a reinforcing push from the
disturbance Wednesday/Wed night. Wednesday may end up being the
coolest day of the period, depending on the timing of the
precipitation chances, with forecast highs in the mid 70s to mid
80s. Lower to mid 80s are in the forecast for Tues-Thur-Fri, with
warmer temps for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Chances for
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for both terminal sites, main
change was to push back the timing of the VCTS mention, with most
models in good agreement keeping this afternoon/evening dry. A
stronger upper level disturbance and accompanying cold front will
start moving through the terminal areas right at/just after the
end of this TAF period. Winds remain southerly for this TAF, with
gusts near 20 MPH possible this afternoon.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KLBF 242022
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
322 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

H5 analysis from this morning had a closed low over central
Washington...with low amplitude ridging over the central and
northern plains.  A low amplitude trough encompassed much of New
England and eastern Canada.  Weak shortwaves are noted east of the
forecast area near the Missouri Valley...atop the northern periphery
of the northern plains ridge and one nearing central Colorado.  A
couple storms are beginning to develop over the front range and
south central Colorado Rockies...but otherwise very little activity
is noted.  At the surface a trough lies just east of the Rockies
with a warm front extending southeast from low pressure in the
western Dakotas through eastern Nebraska.  A cold front from the low
extends southwest across west central Wyoming into far northwest
SDak. Temperatures as of 2pm CDT range from the mid 80s at KONL...to
100F at KCDR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

It will be hot and humid ahead of an approaching trough moving off
the front range. Thunderstorms will initiate under the trough and
eventually work their way east this evening. Some of the storms
could have strong winds and some hail due to some decent
instability, especially at the mid levels that will be tapped once
we reach peak heating and dynamic support from the trough arrives.
Bulk shear looks weak however the low level jet kicking in should
help sustain the storms into the night time hours. Multicell
clusters look to be the most likely thunderstorm mode, especially by
the time the storms arrive into the eastern panhandle this evening,
and into central Nebraska tonight.

A dry cold front will move through from northwest to southeast very
early in the morning on Saturday, ushering in cooler temperatures,
in the 80s, and a rain free day for most. There could be a few
showers early over eastern portions of the forecast area but
redevlopment of showers or storms in the afternoon is not expected.
Northwest winds will be breezy behind the front with widespread
gusts over 20 mph common.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Beginning 00z Sunday.  The cold front will be east of the forecast
area to start off the extended with the showers and storms east
along the front.  Thus a dry forecast is anticipated into Sunday
evening.  Cooler Canadian high pressure will settle overhead Sunday
morning leading to lows mainly in the 50s...but a few upper 40s will
be possible over northwest Nebraska.  Isolated or scattered storms
will be possible Sunday evening across western portions of the cwa
as a disturbance lifts through the region.  The EC and Nam continues
to highlight the qpf chances...with the GFS now latching onto a
similar solution.  Will expand the coverage of chances to much of
the forecast area overnight with the development of a LLJ.  The
possibility of additional showers/storms will last into Monday as
the upper level pattern transitions from a westerly to northwesterly
component and additional disturbances pass through.  Convective
parameters only indicate a marginal threat of a strong or severe
storm with the better instability arriving to our south on Monday.

Beyond Monday the work week will remain active as the prevailing
northwest flow directs several disturbances through the region.  The
best shot at widespread qpf arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a nocturnal LLJ develops and a strong disturbance dives
southeast through the region.  Will maintain high end chance and low
end likely pops given by the blended procedure during that time
period.

Clouds would potentially play spoiler role for temperatures through
the work week...but at this point...seasonal to slightly above
average temperatures can be expected through the extended as most
days will see more sun than clouds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon across
western Nebraska and move into parts of north central and southwest
Nebraska this evening affecting both KVTN and KLBF terminals with
occasional MVFR conditions with thunderstorms. Winds will also
become gusty with the passing front after 12z and will shift from
the south to the north.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

No snow remains below 10kft in the North and South Platte regions
and runoff season has effectively ended. The North Platte River at
North Platte and Lewellen have fallen below flood stage as releases
from Lake McConaughy continue to decrease. It is expected to remain
within action stage through at least early next week.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jacobs
SHORT TERM...Allen
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Gomez
HYDROLOGY...Allen




000
FXUS63 KOAX 242005
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
305 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The primary forecast concerns in the short term are the timing and
intensity of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.

The main features in the large scale pattern were a fairly
impressive trough over the Pacific Northwest and high heights across
the southern part of the CONUS. There was weak ridging from the
central plains up into Manitoba. A jet max of 110 knots at 300 mb
was noted from Oregon into far western Montana at 12z. Temperatures
at 500 mb were as cold as -23C with the closed low over Washington
state. Thermal ridge at 700 mb stretched from southern California up
into western South Dakota. Decent moisture was in place at 850 mb
and at the surface from Texas up into the eastern Dakotas.

The area of thicker cloud cover and spotty showers which moved over
parts of northeast Nebraska had lifted into northwest Iowa by mid
afternoon. The thunderstorms over northeast Kansas had been trying
to move into southeast Nebraska...but did not have much success
through early afternoon. Expect some isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the southeast half of the forecast
area tonight. Activity could also develop over the high plains and
move into the area later tonight.

Morning activity should decrease Saturday...with the atmosphere
becoming quite unstable in the afternoon. 12z GFS showed 0-500 meter
ML CAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg over all of southwest Iowa and
much of eastern Nebraska by mid afternoon (values should drop off
quickly though northwest of a line from about Columbus to Sioux
City. The most favorable combination of shear and instability for
organized severe storms will be from Minnesota into Wisconsin.
However...forecast soundings in our area look favorable for
hail...gusty winds and heavy rain. Precipitable water values should
exceed 2 inches at most locations in the afternoon and evening. The
moisture plume currently extending from Mexico up into Colorado
should be over our area Saturday afternoon and evening. We have rain
chances dropping off late Saturday night from northwest to
southeast...and that trend still looks good.

Rain chances look too low to mention from Sunday into Sunday
night...but did keep a slight chance of thunderstorms for parts of
the area on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Trends in this period remain about the same. Our area should be in
northwest flow at the start of the period...with a strong mid
tropospheric ridge centered over southern Utah. At least the first
few days in this period should have highs below normal...with highs
inching back to near or above normal by Friday. Impulses in the
northwest flow will be difficult to accurately time. For now...it
appears that a fairly strong disturbance will bring us a modest
chance for thunderstorms from Tuesday night into Wednesday night.
This could be a setup that would cause excessive rain and flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Kern




000
FXUS63 KOAX 242005
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
305 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The primary forecast concerns in the short term are the timing and
intensity of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.

The main features in the large scale pattern were a fairly
impressive trough over the Pacific Northwest and high heights across
the southern part of the CONUS. There was weak ridging from the
central plains up into Manitoba. A jet max of 110 knots at 300 mb
was noted from Oregon into far western Montana at 12z. Temperatures
at 500 mb were as cold as -23C with the closed low over Washington
state. Thermal ridge at 700 mb stretched from southern California up
into western South Dakota. Decent moisture was in place at 850 mb
and at the surface from Texas up into the eastern Dakotas.

The area of thicker cloud cover and spotty showers which moved over
parts of northeast Nebraska had lifted into northwest Iowa by mid
afternoon. The thunderstorms over northeast Kansas had been trying
to move into southeast Nebraska...but did not have much success
through early afternoon. Expect some isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the southeast half of the forecast
area tonight. Activity could also develop over the high plains and
move into the area later tonight.

Morning activity should decrease Saturday...with the atmosphere
becoming quite unstable in the afternoon. 12z GFS showed 0-500 meter
ML CAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg over all of southwest Iowa and
much of eastern Nebraska by mid afternoon (values should drop off
quickly though northwest of a line from about Columbus to Sioux
City. The most favorable combination of shear and instability for
organized severe storms will be from Minnesota into Wisconsin.
However...forecast soundings in our area look favorable for
hail...gusty winds and heavy rain. Precipitable water values should
exceed 2 inches at most locations in the afternoon and evening. The
moisture plume currently extending from Mexico up into Colorado
should be over our area Saturday afternoon and evening. We have rain
chances dropping off late Saturday night from northwest to
southeast...and that trend still looks good.

Rain chances look too low to mention from Sunday into Sunday
night...but did keep a slight chance of thunderstorms for parts of
the area on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Trends in this period remain about the same. Our area should be in
northwest flow at the start of the period...with a strong mid
tropospheric ridge centered over southern Utah. At least the first
few days in this period should have highs below normal...with highs
inching back to near or above normal by Friday. Impulses in the
northwest flow will be difficult to accurately time. For now...it
appears that a fairly strong disturbance will bring us a modest
chance for thunderstorms from Tuesday night into Wednesday night.
This could be a setup that would cause excessive rain and flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Kern




000
FXUS63 KLBF 241747
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1247 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

H5 analysis this evening had a closed low off the coast of
Washington state. Downstream of the closed low, a low amplitude
ridge was present from the western Dakotas into southern
Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. A low amplitude trough of low
pressure extended from southern Quebec south to New England.
Across the southern third of the CONUS, high pressure extended
from west Texas to Florida. Shortwave disturbances were present
on the northern periphery of the high over the central plains and
central and southern Rockies. A broad area of showers and
thunderstorms extended from central Kansas southwest to the
northeastern Texas panhandle. Further north across northeastern
Colorado, southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas,
thunderstorms from earlier this evening, have decayed overnight.
At the surface, low pressure was located over southeastern
Montana with a surface trough of low pressure extending south
into eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Skies overnight
were partly to mostly cloudy with 3 AM CDT temperatures ranging
from 66 at Imperial to 71 at North Platte and Thedford.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is
precipitation chances and the threat for thunderstorms late this
afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms will initiate later this
afternoon and early this evening along the surface trough in
eastern Wyoming, the western Nebraska panhandle and northeastern
Colorado as surface heating combines with the arrival of a decent
shortwave trough which will lift across the central rockies later
today. Convection will lift east into western and north central
Nebraska into the evening hours and is expected to sustain itself
thanks to an increasing low level jet later this evening and
abundant low level moisture and increased instability aloft. As
for the threat for severe storms this afternoon and evening.
Based on thunderstorm timing and location of highest deep layer
shear, strong to low end severe storms are possible in the
western half of the CWA. The severe threat will diminish east of
highway 83 as thunderstorm timing will be later and deep layer
shear weaker. Highs today will be in the 90s while lows tonight
will be in the upper 50s in the west to around 70 in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Cooler day on Saturday compared to Friday behind the cold front.
Widespread highs in the 80s. Could still see a few storms in the
eastern zones post frontal however higher chances are further
east along and ahead of the front. Canadian high pressure settles
overhead Saturday night with lows at or below normal with temps
bottoming out for most locations in the lower to mid 50s. High is
still in command for Sunday with a dry day expected, however will
have to monitor a disturbance the EC continues to advertise
moving across the area. Overnight a low level jet is anticipated
to spark a few isold showers, with support from the
EC/Canadian/GFS.

Active pattern to start the work week. Ridge remains across the
desert southwest with progressive northwest flow for the high
plains. Models are tracking several disturbances across the area
and expect on and off chance for showers. Timing is a still a
little uncertain however good model agreement with a stronger
wave tuesday night reinforced by a nocturnal low level jet and
will have high chance/likely pops, otherwise slight to low chance
pops.

Temps will be tricky as clouds will be a big player, however
generally not to far from seasonal temps with highs in the 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon across
western Nebraska and move into parts of north central and southwest
Nebraska this evening affecting both KVTN and KLBF terminals with
occasional MVFR conditions with thunderstorms. Winds will also
become gusty with the passing front after 12z and will shift from
the south to the north.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The flood warning was cancelled earlier this evening for the
North Platte river at Lewellen. River levels will remain elevated
along the North Platte river at Lewellen and North Platte,
however no additional flooding is expected at this time.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Gomez
HYDROLOGY...Buttler




000
FXUS63 KLBF 241747
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1247 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

H5 analysis this evening had a closed low off the coast of
Washington state. Downstream of the closed low, a low amplitude
ridge was present from the western Dakotas into southern
Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. A low amplitude trough of low
pressure extended from southern Quebec south to New England.
Across the southern third of the CONUS, high pressure extended
from west Texas to Florida. Shortwave disturbances were present
on the northern periphery of the high over the central plains and
central and southern Rockies. A broad area of showers and
thunderstorms extended from central Kansas southwest to the
northeastern Texas panhandle. Further north across northeastern
Colorado, southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas,
thunderstorms from earlier this evening, have decayed overnight.
At the surface, low pressure was located over southeastern
Montana with a surface trough of low pressure extending south
into eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Skies overnight
were partly to mostly cloudy with 3 AM CDT temperatures ranging
from 66 at Imperial to 71 at North Platte and Thedford.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is
precipitation chances and the threat for thunderstorms late this
afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms will initiate later this
afternoon and early this evening along the surface trough in
eastern Wyoming, the western Nebraska panhandle and northeastern
Colorado as surface heating combines with the arrival of a decent
shortwave trough which will lift across the central rockies later
today. Convection will lift east into western and north central
Nebraska into the evening hours and is expected to sustain itself
thanks to an increasing low level jet later this evening and
abundant low level moisture and increased instability aloft. As
for the threat for severe storms this afternoon and evening.
Based on thunderstorm timing and location of highest deep layer
shear, strong to low end severe storms are possible in the
western half of the CWA. The severe threat will diminish east of
highway 83 as thunderstorm timing will be later and deep layer
shear weaker. Highs today will be in the 90s while lows tonight
will be in the upper 50s in the west to around 70 in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Cooler day on Saturday compared to Friday behind the cold front.
Widespread highs in the 80s. Could still see a few storms in the
eastern zones post frontal however higher chances are further
east along and ahead of the front. Canadian high pressure settles
overhead Saturday night with lows at or below normal with temps
bottoming out for most locations in the lower to mid 50s. High is
still in command for Sunday with a dry day expected, however will
have to monitor a disturbance the EC continues to advertise
moving across the area. Overnight a low level jet is anticipated
to spark a few isold showers, with support from the
EC/Canadian/GFS.

Active pattern to start the work week. Ridge remains across the
desert southwest with progressive northwest flow for the high
plains. Models are tracking several disturbances across the area
and expect on and off chance for showers. Timing is a still a
little uncertain however good model agreement with a stronger
wave tuesday night reinforced by a nocturnal low level jet and
will have high chance/likely pops, otherwise slight to low chance
pops.

Temps will be tricky as clouds will be a big player, however
generally not to far from seasonal temps with highs in the 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon across
western Nebraska and move into parts of north central and southwest
Nebraska this evening affecting both KVTN and KLBF terminals with
occasional MVFR conditions with thunderstorms. Winds will also
become gusty with the passing front after 12z and will shift from
the south to the north.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The flood warning was cancelled earlier this evening for the
North Platte river at Lewellen. River levels will remain elevated
along the North Platte river at Lewellen and North Platte,
however no additional flooding is expected at this time.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Gomez
HYDROLOGY...Buttler




000
FXUS63 KOAX 241721
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1221 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

00z upper-air analysis revealed low-amplitude ridging from the
Canadian Prairie Provinces into the northern Plains, ahead of the
next short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast.
This ridge axis will shift east today into the upper Mississippi
Valley in response to the progression of the Pacific Northwest
short-wave trough into the northern Rockies. This upper-air
pattern evolution will promote the eastward development of a weak
surface low from eastern Montana into central North Dakota by this
evening while an associated Pacific front advances east across
the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, a baroclinic zone which has
become quasi-stationary across Kansas into the Ozarks will develop
north through the mid Missouri Valley today, eventually linking
with the Pacific front moving through South Dakota.

Low-level moisture will increase today in the vicinity of the
retreating warm front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates, yielding moderate afternoon instability over eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa. However, convergence will not be
particularly strong along the boundary owing to negligible large-
scale forcing for ascent. Moreover, there is some indication in
forecast soundings that weak capping centered around 750 mb may
persist through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. The upshot
is that thunderstorm development today is a bit more uncertain,
and as such, we will include only slight chance pops during the
afternoon.

Tonight, a 40-50 kt low-level jet will strengthen from the
central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, ahead of the
short-wave trough moving into the northern High Plains and the
Pacific front which will be advancing through the Dakotas and
western Nebraska. While isolated storms will remain possible, the
strongest moisture flux and low-level forcing for ascent will
remain to our north over the upper Mississippi Valley.

Saturday and Saturday night, the surface front will advance
southeast through the area with the passage of the short-wave
trough to our north along the International Border. Daytime
heating coupled with a moist boundary layer and modestly steep
lapse rates will promote moderate afternoon instability within the
warm sector where mlcape will approach 2000-2500+ J/kg.
Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity during the
afternoon as the front interacts with the increasingly unstable
air mass. While the strongest vertical shear will reside to our
north, the degree of instability will be supportive of a few strong
to marginally severe storms capable of locally damaging winds and
perhaps some hail. Thunderstorm chances will diminish from north
to south across the area late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night with the equatorward progression of the front.

Sunday, dry conditions are expected as a weak low-level ridge
axis develops through the mid Missouri Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A mid-level trough over Ontario at the onset of the extended
period will amplify over eastern North America with an upstream
ridge intensifying from the Four-Corners region into western
Canada. 00z medium-range guidance indicates a series of weak
perturbations cresting the ridge axis and subsequently translating
southeast through the northern and central Plains, resulting in a
chance of thunderstorms through the early to middle part of this
upcoming week. The best storm chances and potential for heavy
rainfall appear to be tied to an impulse which will track from
Montana into the mid Missouri Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This weather system will also draw a slightly cooler air mass into
the region around mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Kern




000
FXUS63 KOAX 241721
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1221 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

00z upper-air analysis revealed low-amplitude ridging from the
Canadian Prairie Provinces into the northern Plains, ahead of the
next short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast.
This ridge axis will shift east today into the upper Mississippi
Valley in response to the progression of the Pacific Northwest
short-wave trough into the northern Rockies. This upper-air
pattern evolution will promote the eastward development of a weak
surface low from eastern Montana into central North Dakota by this
evening while an associated Pacific front advances east across
the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, a baroclinic zone which has
become quasi-stationary across Kansas into the Ozarks will develop
north through the mid Missouri Valley today, eventually linking
with the Pacific front moving through South Dakota.

Low-level moisture will increase today in the vicinity of the
retreating warm front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates, yielding moderate afternoon instability over eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa. However, convergence will not be
particularly strong along the boundary owing to negligible large-
scale forcing for ascent. Moreover, there is some indication in
forecast soundings that weak capping centered around 750 mb may
persist through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. The upshot
is that thunderstorm development today is a bit more uncertain,
and as such, we will include only slight chance pops during the
afternoon.

Tonight, a 40-50 kt low-level jet will strengthen from the
central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, ahead of the
short-wave trough moving into the northern High Plains and the
Pacific front which will be advancing through the Dakotas and
western Nebraska. While isolated storms will remain possible, the
strongest moisture flux and low-level forcing for ascent will
remain to our north over the upper Mississippi Valley.

Saturday and Saturday night, the surface front will advance
southeast through the area with the passage of the short-wave
trough to our north along the International Border. Daytime
heating coupled with a moist boundary layer and modestly steep
lapse rates will promote moderate afternoon instability within the
warm sector where mlcape will approach 2000-2500+ J/kg.
Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity during the
afternoon as the front interacts with the increasingly unstable
air mass. While the strongest vertical shear will reside to our
north, the degree of instability will be supportive of a few strong
to marginally severe storms capable of locally damaging winds and
perhaps some hail. Thunderstorm chances will diminish from north
to south across the area late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night with the equatorward progression of the front.

Sunday, dry conditions are expected as a weak low-level ridge
axis develops through the mid Missouri Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A mid-level trough over Ontario at the onset of the extended
period will amplify over eastern North America with an upstream
ridge intensifying from the Four-Corners region into western
Canada. 00z medium-range guidance indicates a series of weak
perturbations cresting the ridge axis and subsequently translating
southeast through the northern and central Plains, resulting in a
chance of thunderstorms through the early to middle part of this
upcoming week. The best storm chances and potential for heavy
rainfall appear to be tied to an impulse which will track from
Montana into the mid Missouri Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This weather system will also draw a slightly cooler air mass into
the region around mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Kern




000
FXUS63 KGID 241711
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1211 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Biggest issue today will be when and if thunderstorms develop.
Current convection mostly south of the area in Kansas overnight, and
should stay mainly outside of the CWA according to most short-term
models. A warm front will traverse east across the CWA today, and
thunderstorms could fire near this boundary this afternoon as the
low-level lapse rate steepens and we arrive at or near convective
temperature. Kept highs largely the same from the previous forecast
in the lower to mid 90s for today. 700 mb temperatures are not
terribly warm, so I envision any cap potentially breaking in the
afternoon. It will be a bit more likely that thunderstorms would
occur toward the eastern CWA, if models are correct with the
timing of the warm front, but if it winds up being slower, then
pretty much any part of the CWA is fair game. Bulk shear will be
moderate, in the 25 to 30 kt range, and CAPE will probably max out
in excess of 2000 J/kg for at least some locations. With the
potential for a surface boundary nearby, we could have at least a
strong storm or two this afternoon/evening, but any storms should
dissipate or move east fairly early in the evening. There could be
some remnants of High Plains convection entering our western CWA
during the evening and making its way east, but there is little
support for severe convection into the overnight. Lows will likely
not drop below the 70s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Big Story: This has been a bone-dry month...especially E of Hwy 183.
Tue-Wed may offer the best chance of rain we`ve seen in a while...
but it could come with svr wx.

Aloft: A potent low will be traveling E along the US-Can border Sat
...embedded within the Westerlies. Subtropical high pres will cont
to dominate the Srn 1/3 of the USA. The low will move into Ontario
Sun. A broad Wrn ridge/Ern trof will develop by Mon with the
subtropical high retreating to the Desert SW. This pattern will
remain locked in for the rest of the week...putting the Cntrl Plains
in NW flow.

Surface: At daybreak Sat a weak Pac cool front will extend from the
Dakota`s SW across cntrl Neb into CO. This front will cross the area
mainly during the morning hrs...and will be exiting the Ern/Srn
fringes of the fcst area during peak heating. Weak high pres will
build over the region Sun. A second strong front of Canadian origin
will be sagging thru the Nrn USA. This front will drop thru the fcst
area Mon. Fairly strong high pres will then slide SE out of Canada
and into the Ern USA Tue-Fri. Meanwhile...the front will become
stationary from the Gulf Coast states NW across the Srn Plains to
the Front Range of the Rockies.

The past 3 EC runs fcst a shortwave trof to move onshore in the Pac
NW Mon...rounding the ridge Tue and then heading SE into the fcst
area Tue night. Once this trof passes...the front should be forced
deeper into the Srn USA.

Some daily details...

Sat: Weak cool frontal passage. The timing of its passage will
dictate tstm potential. Followed model/SREF consensus which allows
for a few tstms to develop E and S of Grand Island in the 3 pm-6 pm
time frame.

Tropospheric winds will be largely parallel to the front...
suggesting potential for storms to gradually form a thin line...
probably initiating over S-cntrl Neb and then building SW into Nrn
KS. Development of a line really depends on how many storms
initiate.

Given how far removed the area will be from the upr forcing...there
may only be a couple storms.

Temps 89-99F with dwpts 65-69F will result in substantial
instability with MLCAPE as high as 2500 J/kg. With the trof and
associated jet streak well N of the fcst area...weak winds aloft and
a unidirectional profile will create an environment of weak shear
around 20 kts immediately ahead of the front. This does not argue
for highly organized storm structures.

Used a 50-50 blend of the 18Z and 00Z consensus of model 2m temps
for highs. This heated temps up back close to 100F over Mitchell
County and cooled temps slightly from Lexington-Ord.

Sun: Looking dry...but not much of a cool-down. Areas from Lexington-
Ord will actually be warmer than Sat. N-cntrl KS won`t be quite as
hot...but still should see 90-92F. Very comfortable humidity as
dwpts drop far into the 50s.

Mon: Can`t rule out an isolated tstm or two with the frontal
passage.

Tue-Wed: Have potential to be convectively active with 1 or 2
opportunities for an MCS to move into parts of the fcst area. The
shortwave trof mentioned above will need to be watched.

Thu: Currently looks dry but with tstms remaining well W and S of
the fcst area.

Temps especially Tue-Wed will be dictated by MCS activity and cloud
cover. Bottom line is a break from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Chances for
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for both terminal sites, main
change was to push back the timing of the VCTS mention, with most
models in good agreement keeping this afternoon/evening dry. A
stronger upper level disturbance and accompanying cold front will
start moving through the terminal areas right at/just after the
end of this TAF period. Winds remain southerly for this TAF, with
gusts near 20 MPH possible this afternoon.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Halblaub
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KLBF 241208
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
708 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

H5 analysis this evening had a closed low off the coast of
Washington state. Downstream of the closed low, a low amplitude
ridge was present from the western Dakotas into southern
Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. A low amplitude trough of low
pressure extended from southern Quebec south to New England.
Across the southern third of the CONUS, high pressure extended
from west Texas to Florida. Shortwave disturbances were present
on the northern periphery of the high over the central plains and
central and southern Rockies. A broad area of showers and
thunderstorms extended from central Kansas southwest to the
northeastern Texas panhandle. Further north across northeastern
Colorado, southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas,
thunderstorms from earlier this evening, have decayed overnight.
At the surface, low pressure was located over southeastern
Montana with a surface trough of low pressure extending south
into eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Skies overnight
were partly to mostly cloudy with 3 AM CDT temperatures ranging
from 66 at Imperial to 71 at North Platte and Thedford.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is
precipitation chances and the threat for thunderstorms late this
afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms will initiate later this
afternoon and early this evening along the surface trough in
eastern Wyoming, the western Nebraska panhandle and northeastern
Colorado as surface heating combines with the arrival of a decent
shortwave trough which will lift across the central rockies later
today. Convection will lift east into western and north central
Nebraska into the evening hours and is expected to sustain itself
thanks to an increasing low level jet later this evening and
abundant low level moisture and increased instability aloft. As
for the threat for severe storms this afternoon and evening.
Based on thunderstorm timing and location of highest deep layer
shear, strong to low end severe storms are possible in the
western half of the CWA. The severe threat will diminish east of
highway 83 as thunderstorm timing will be later and deep layer
shear weaker. Highs today will be in the 90s while lows tonight
will be in the upper 50s in the west to around 70 in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Cooler day on Saturday compared to Friday behind the cold front.
Widespread highs in the 80s. Could still see a few storms in the
eastern zones post frontal however higher chances are further
east along and ahead of the front. Canadian high pressure settles
overhead Saturday night with lows at or below normal with temps
bottoming out for most locations in the lower to mid 50s. High is
still in command for Sunday with a dry day expected, however will
have to monitor a disturbance the EC continues to advertise
moving across the area. Overnight a low level jet is anticipated
to spark a few isold showers, with support from the
EC/Canadian/GFS.

Active pattern to start the work week. Ridge remains across the
desert southwest with progressive northwest flow for the high
plains. Models are tracking several disturbances across the area
and expect on and off chance for showers. Timing is a still a
little uncertain however good model agreement with a stronger
wave tuesday night reinforced by a nocturnal low level jet and
will have high chance/likely pops, otherwise slight to low chance
pops.

Temps will be tricky as clouds will be a big player, however
generally not to far from seasonal temps with highs in the 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 708 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

For the KLBF terminal, expect clear skies today with increasing
clouds and isolated thunderstorms possible after 02z Saturday.
Visibilities may drop down to 4 SM with any storms which impact
the terminal. CIGS of 5000 to 9000 FT AGL are likely this evening
with broken CIGS of 25000 FT AGL expected overnight. For the KVTN
terminal, expect clear skies today with increasing high clouds
tonight. Broken CIGS of 25000 FT AGL are expected tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The flood warning was cancelled earlier this evening for the
North Platte river at Lewellen. River levels will remain elevated
along the North Platte river at Lewellen and North Platte,
however no additional flooding is expected at this time.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Buttler
HYDROLOGY...Buttler




000
FXUS63 KLBF 241208
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
708 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

H5 analysis this evening had a closed low off the coast of
Washington state. Downstream of the closed low, a low amplitude
ridge was present from the western Dakotas into southern
Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. A low amplitude trough of low
pressure extended from southern Quebec south to New England.
Across the southern third of the CONUS, high pressure extended
from west Texas to Florida. Shortwave disturbances were present
on the northern periphery of the high over the central plains and
central and southern Rockies. A broad area of showers and
thunderstorms extended from central Kansas southwest to the
northeastern Texas panhandle. Further north across northeastern
Colorado, southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas,
thunderstorms from earlier this evening, have decayed overnight.
At the surface, low pressure was located over southeastern
Montana with a surface trough of low pressure extending south
into eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Skies overnight
were partly to mostly cloudy with 3 AM CDT temperatures ranging
from 66 at Imperial to 71 at North Platte and Thedford.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is
precipitation chances and the threat for thunderstorms late this
afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms will initiate later this
afternoon and early this evening along the surface trough in
eastern Wyoming, the western Nebraska panhandle and northeastern
Colorado as surface heating combines with the arrival of a decent
shortwave trough which will lift across the central rockies later
today. Convection will lift east into western and north central
Nebraska into the evening hours and is expected to sustain itself
thanks to an increasing low level jet later this evening and
abundant low level moisture and increased instability aloft. As
for the threat for severe storms this afternoon and evening.
Based on thunderstorm timing and location of highest deep layer
shear, strong to low end severe storms are possible in the
western half of the CWA. The severe threat will diminish east of
highway 83 as thunderstorm timing will be later and deep layer
shear weaker. Highs today will be in the 90s while lows tonight
will be in the upper 50s in the west to around 70 in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Cooler day on Saturday compared to Friday behind the cold front.
Widespread highs in the 80s. Could still see a few storms in the
eastern zones post frontal however higher chances are further
east along and ahead of the front. Canadian high pressure settles
overhead Saturday night with lows at or below normal with temps
bottoming out for most locations in the lower to mid 50s. High is
still in command for Sunday with a dry day expected, however will
have to monitor a disturbance the EC continues to advertise
moving across the area. Overnight a low level jet is anticipated
to spark a few isold showers, with support from the
EC/Canadian/GFS.

Active pattern to start the work week. Ridge remains across the
desert southwest with progressive northwest flow for the high
plains. Models are tracking several disturbances across the area
and expect on and off chance for showers. Timing is a still a
little uncertain however good model agreement with a stronger
wave tuesday night reinforced by a nocturnal low level jet and
will have high chance/likely pops, otherwise slight to low chance
pops.

Temps will be tricky as clouds will be a big player, however
generally not to far from seasonal temps with highs in the 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 708 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

For the KLBF terminal, expect clear skies today with increasing
clouds and isolated thunderstorms possible after 02z Saturday.
Visibilities may drop down to 4 SM with any storms which impact
the terminal. CIGS of 5000 to 9000 FT AGL are likely this evening
with broken CIGS of 25000 FT AGL expected overnight. For the KVTN
terminal, expect clear skies today with increasing high clouds
tonight. Broken CIGS of 25000 FT AGL are expected tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The flood warning was cancelled earlier this evening for the
North Platte river at Lewellen. River levels will remain elevated
along the North Platte river at Lewellen and North Platte,
however no additional flooding is expected at this time.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Buttler
HYDROLOGY...Buttler




000
FXUS63 KOAX 241109
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
609 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

00z upper-air analysis revealed low-amplitude ridging from the
Canadian Prairie Provinces into the northern Plains, ahead of the
next short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast.
This ridge axis will shift east today into the upper Mississippi
Valley in response to the progression of the Pacific Northwest
short-wave trough into the northern Rockies. This upper-air
pattern evolution will promote the eastward development of a weak
surface low from eastern Montana into central North Dakota by this
evening while an associated Pacific front advances east across
the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, a baroclinic zone which has
become quasi-stationary across Kansas into the Ozarks will develop
north through the mid Missouri Valley today, eventually linking
with the Pacific front moving through South Dakota.

Low-level moisture will increase today in the vicinity of the
retreating warm front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates, yielding moderate afternoon instability over eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa. However, convergence will not be
particularly strong along the boundary owing to negligible large-
scale forcing for ascent. Moreover, there is some indication in
forecast soundings that weak capping centered around 750 mb may
persist through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. The upshot
is that thunderstorm development today is a bit more uncertain,
and as such, we will include only slight chance pops during the
afternoon.

Tonight, a 40-50 kt low-level jet will strengthen from the
central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, ahead of the
short-wave trough moving into the northern High Plains and the
Pacific front which will be advancing through the Dakotas and
western Nebraska. While isolated storms will remain possible, the
strongest moisture flux and low-level forcing for ascent will
remain to our north over the upper Mississippi Valley.

Saturday and Saturday night, the surface front will advance
southeast through the area with the passage of the short-wave
trough to our north along the International Border. Daytime
heating coupled with a moist boundary layer and modestly steep
lapse rates will promote moderate afternoon instability within the
warm sector where mlcape will approach 2000-2500+ J/kg.
Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity during the
afternoon as the front interacts with the increasingly unstable
air mass. While the strongest vertical shear will reside to our
north, the degree of instability will be supportive of a few strong
to marginally severe storms capable of locally damaging winds and
perhaps some hail. Thunderstorm chances will diminish from north
to south across the area late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night with the equatorward progression of the front.

Sunday, dry conditions are expected as a weak low-level ridge
axis develops through the mid Missouri Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A mid-level trough over Ontario at the onset of the extended
period will amplify over eastern North America with an upstream
ridge intensifying from the Four-Corners region into western
Canada. 00z medium-range guidance indicates a series of weak
perturbations cresting the ridge axis and subsequently translating
southeast through the northern and central Plains, resulting in a
chance of thunderstorms through the early to middle part of this
upcoming week. The best storm chances and potential for heavy
rainfall appear to be tied to an impulse which will track from
Montana into the mid Missouri Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This weather system will also draw a slightly cooler air mass into
the region around mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 12Z Saturday)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle, with southeast
winds around 10-12kt. Some guidance hints at a potential for wind
shear tonight, but with inconsistent guidance, opted to leave it
out for now. Also left out any mention of showers or
thunderstorms, as any potential this afternoon would be widely
isolated, and cold frontal precipitation is not likely to reach
KOFK before 12Z.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Mayes




000
FXUS63 KOAX 241109
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
609 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

00z upper-air analysis revealed low-amplitude ridging from the
Canadian Prairie Provinces into the northern Plains, ahead of the
next short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast.
This ridge axis will shift east today into the upper Mississippi
Valley in response to the progression of the Pacific Northwest
short-wave trough into the northern Rockies. This upper-air
pattern evolution will promote the eastward development of a weak
surface low from eastern Montana into central North Dakota by this
evening while an associated Pacific front advances east across
the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, a baroclinic zone which has
become quasi-stationary across Kansas into the Ozarks will develop
north through the mid Missouri Valley today, eventually linking
with the Pacific front moving through South Dakota.

Low-level moisture will increase today in the vicinity of the
retreating warm front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates, yielding moderate afternoon instability over eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa. However, convergence will not be
particularly strong along the boundary owing to negligible large-
scale forcing for ascent. Moreover, there is some indication in
forecast soundings that weak capping centered around 750 mb may
persist through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. The upshot
is that thunderstorm development today is a bit more uncertain,
and as such, we will include only slight chance pops during the
afternoon.

Tonight, a 40-50 kt low-level jet will strengthen from the
central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, ahead of the
short-wave trough moving into the northern High Plains and the
Pacific front which will be advancing through the Dakotas and
western Nebraska. While isolated storms will remain possible, the
strongest moisture flux and low-level forcing for ascent will
remain to our north over the upper Mississippi Valley.

Saturday and Saturday night, the surface front will advance
southeast through the area with the passage of the short-wave
trough to our north along the International Border. Daytime
heating coupled with a moist boundary layer and modestly steep
lapse rates will promote moderate afternoon instability within the
warm sector where mlcape will approach 2000-2500+ J/kg.
Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity during the
afternoon as the front interacts with the increasingly unstable
air mass. While the strongest vertical shear will reside to our
north, the degree of instability will be supportive of a few strong
to marginally severe storms capable of locally damaging winds and
perhaps some hail. Thunderstorm chances will diminish from north
to south across the area late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night with the equatorward progression of the front.

Sunday, dry conditions are expected as a weak low-level ridge
axis develops through the mid Missouri Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A mid-level trough over Ontario at the onset of the extended
period will amplify over eastern North America with an upstream
ridge intensifying from the Four-Corners region into western
Canada. 00z medium-range guidance indicates a series of weak
perturbations cresting the ridge axis and subsequently translating
southeast through the northern and central Plains, resulting in a
chance of thunderstorms through the early to middle part of this
upcoming week. The best storm chances and potential for heavy
rainfall appear to be tied to an impulse which will track from
Montana into the mid Missouri Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This weather system will also draw a slightly cooler air mass into
the region around mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 12Z Saturday)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle, with southeast
winds around 10-12kt. Some guidance hints at a potential for wind
shear tonight, but with inconsistent guidance, opted to leave it
out for now. Also left out any mention of showers or
thunderstorms, as any potential this afternoon would be widely
isolated, and cold frontal precipitation is not likely to reach
KOFK before 12Z.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Mayes




000
FXUS63 KGID 241058
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
558 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Biggest issue today will be when and if thunderstorms develop.
Current convection mostly south of the area in Kansas overnight, and
should stay mainly outside of the CWA according to most short-term
models. A warm front will traverse east across the CWA today, and
thunderstorms could fire near this boundary this afternoon as the
low-level lapse rate steepens and we arrive at or near convective
temperature. Kept highs largely the same from the previous forecast
in the lower to mid 90s for today. 700 mb temperatures are not
terribly warm, so I envision any cap potentially breaking in the
afternoon. It will be a bit more likely that thunderstorms would
occur toward the eastern CWA, if models are correct with the
timing of the warm front, but if it winds up being slower, then
pretty much any part of the CWA is fair game. Bulk shear will be
moderate, in the 25 to 30 kt range, and CAPE will probably max out
in excess of 2000 J/kg for at least some locations. With the
potential for a surface boundary nearby, we could have at least a
strong storm or two this afternoon/evening, but any storms should
dissipate or move east fairly early in the evening. There could be
some remnants of High Plains convection entering our western CWA
during the evening and making its way east, but there is little
support for severe convection into the overnight. Lows will likely
not drop below the 70s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Big Story: This has been a bone-dry month...especially E of Hwy 183.
Tue-Wed may offer the best chance of rain we`ve seen in a while...
but it could come with svr wx.

Aloft: A potent low will be traveling E along the US-Can border Sat
...embedded within the Westerlies. Subtropical high pres will cont
to dominate the Srn 1/3 of the USA. The low will move into Ontario
Sun. A broad Wrn ridge/Ern trof will develop by Mon with the
subtropical high retreating to the Desert SW. This pattern will
remain locked in for the rest of the week...putting the Cntrl Plains
in NW flow.

Surface: At daybreak Sat a weak Pac cool front will extend from the
Dakota`s SW across cntrl Neb into CO. This front will cross the area
mainly during the morning hrs...and will be exiting the Ern/Srn
fringes of the fcst area during peak heating. Weak high pres will
build over the region Sun. A second strong front of Canadian origin
will be sagging thru the Nrn USA. This front will drop thru the fcst
area Mon. Fairly strong high pres will then slide SE out of Canada
and into the Ern USA Tue-Fri. Meanwhile...the front will become
stationary from the Gulf Coast states NW across the Srn Plains to
the Front Range of the Rockies.

The past 3 EC runs fcst a shortwave trof to move onshore in the Pac
NW Mon...rounding the ridge Tue and then heading SE into the fcst
area Tue night. Once this trof passes...the front should be forced
deeper into the Srn USA.

Some daily details...

Sat: Weak cool frontal passage. The timing of its passage will
dictate tstm potential. Followed model/SREF consensus which allows
for a few tstms to develop E and S of Grand Island in the 3 pm-6 pm
time frame.

Tropospheric winds will be largely parallel to the front...
suggesting potential for storms to gradually form a thin line...
probably initiating over S-cntrl Neb and then building SW into Nrn
KS. Development of a line really depends on how many storms
initiate.

Given how far removed the area will be from the upr forcing...there
may only be a couple storms.

Temps 89-99F with dwpts 65-69F will result in substantial
instability with MLCAPE as high as 2500 J/kg. With the trof and
associated jet streak well N of the fcst area...weak winds aloft and
a unidirectional profile will create an environment of weak shear
around 20 kts immediately ahead of the front. This does not argue
for highly organized storm structures.

Used a 50-50 blend of the 18Z and 00Z consensus of model 2m temps
for highs. This heated temps up back close to 100F over Mitchell
County and cooled temps slightly from Lexington-Ord.

Sun: Looking dry...but not much of a cool-down. Areas from Lexington-
Ord will actually be warmer than Sat. N-cntrl KS won`t be quite as
hot...but still should see 90-92F. Very comfortable humidity as
dwpts drop far into the 50s.

Mon: Can`t rule out an isolated tstm or two with the frontal
passage.

Tue-Wed: Have potential to be convectively active with 1 or 2
opportunities for an MCS to move into parts of the fcst area. The
shortwave trof mentioned above will need to be watched.

Thu: Currently looks dry but with tstms remaining well W and S of
the fcst area.

Temps especially Tue-Wed will be dictated by MCS activity and cloud
cover. Bottom line is a break from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Any thunderstorms this morning should remain well south in
Kansas. As a warm front moves east across the area today,
thunderstorms could fire along the boundary by afternoon. The warm
front should make its way far enough east to not be a factor
for much of the area. Kept VCTS in for late evening/overnight. We
could have LLWS issues tonight, but mostly just after 04Z
Saturday.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Halblaub
AVIATION...Heinlein




000
FXUS63 KGID 240907
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
407 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Biggest issue today will be when and if thunderstorms develop.
Current convection mostly south of the area in Kansas overnight, and
should stay mainly outside of the CWA according to most short-term
models. A warm front will traverse east across the CWA today, and
thunderstorms could fire near this boundary this afternoon as the
low-level lapse rate steepens and we arrive at or near convective
temperature. Kept highs largely the same from the previous forecast
in the lower to mid 90s for today. 700 mb temperatures are not
terribly warm, so I envision any cap potentially breaking in the
afternoon. It will be a bit more likely that thunderstorms would
occur toward the eastern CWA, if models are correct with the
timing of the warm front, but if it winds up being slower, then
pretty much any part of the CWA is fair game. Bulk shear will be
moderate, in the 25 to 30 kt range, and CAPE will probably max out
in excess of 2000 J/kg for at least some locations. With the
potential for a surface boundary nearby, we could have at least a
strong storm or two this afternoon/evening, but any storms should
dissipate or move east fairly early in the evening. There could be
some remnants of High Plains convection entering our western CWA
during the evening and making its way east, but there is little
support for severe convection into the overnight. Lows will likely
not drop below the 70s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Big Story: This has been a bone-dry month...especially E of Hwy 183.
Tue-Wed may offer the best chance of rain we`ve seen in a while...
but it could come with svr wx.

Aloft: A potent low will be traveling E along the US-Can border Sat
...embedded within the Westerlies. Subtropical high pres will cont
to dominate the Srn 1/3 of the USA. The low will move into Ontario
Sun. A broad Wrn ridge/Ern trof will develop by Mon with the
subtropical high retreating to the Desert SW. This pattern will
remain locked in for the rest of the week...putting the Cntrl Plains
in NW flow.

Surface: At daybreak Sat a weak Pac cool front will extend from the
Dakota`s SW across cntrl Neb into CO. This front will cross the area
mainly during the morning hrs...and will be exiting the Ern/Srn
fringes of the fcst area during peak heating. Weak high pres will
build over the region Sun. A second strong front of Canadian origin
will be sagging thru the Nrn USA. This front will drop thru the fcst
area Mon. Fairly strong high pres will then slide SE out of Canada
and into the Ern USA Tue-Fri. Meanwhile...the front will become
stationary from the Gulf Coast states NW across the Srn Plains to
the Front Range of the Rockies.

The past 3 EC runs fcst a shortwave trof to move onshore in the Pac
NW Mon...rounding the ridge Tue and then heading SE into the fcst
area Tue night. Once this trof passes...the front should be forced
deeper into the Srn USA.

Some daily details...

Sat: Weak cool frontal passage. The timing of its passage will
dictate tstm potential. Followed model/SREF consensus which allows
for a few tstms to develop E and S of Grand Island in the 3 pm-6 pm
time frame.

Tropospheric winds will be largely parallel to the front...
suggesting potential for storms to gradually form a thin line...
probably initiating over S-cntrl Neb and then building SW into Nrn
KS. Development of a line really depends on how many storms
initiate.

Given how far removed the area will be from the upr forcing...there
may only be a couple storms.

Temps 89-99F with dwpts 65-69F will result in substantial
instability with MLCAPE as high as 2500 J/kg. With the trof and
associated jet streak well N of the fcst area...weak winds aloft and
a unidirectional profile will create an environment of weak shear
around 20 kts immediately ahead of the front. This does not argue
for highly organized storm structures.

Used a 50-50 blend of the 18Z and 00Z consensus of model 2m temps
for highs. This heated temps up back close to 100F over Mitchell
County and cooled temps slightly from Lexington-Ord.

Sun: Looking dry...but not much of a cool-down. Areas from Lexington-
Ord will actually be warmer than Sat. N-cntrl KS won`t be quite as
hot...but still should see 90-92F. Very comfortable humidity as
dwpts drop far into the 50s.

Mon: Can`t rule out an isolated tstm or two with the frontal
passage.

Tue-Wed: Have potential to be convectively active with 1 or 2
opportunities for an MCS to move into parts of the fcst area. The
shortwave trof mentioned above will need to be watched.

Thu: Currently looks dry but with tstms remaining well W and S of
the fcst area.

Temps especially Tue-Wed will be dictated by MCS activity and cloud
cover. Bottom line is a break from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Any thunderstorms overnight should remain well south in Kansas. As
a warm front moves east across the area today, thunderstorms could
fire along the boundary by afternoon. The warm front should make
its way far enough east to not be a factor for KEAR, but could be
a factor for KGRI, but just barely. Kept VCTS in for the
afternoon, but more likely, any thunderstorm activity will fire
just east of KGRI. We could get close to having LLWS issues Friday
night, but mostly just after 06Z Saturday, beyond the scope of
this forecast.


&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Halblaub
AVIATION...Heinlein




000
FXUS63 KLBF 240843
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
343 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

H5 analysis this evening had a closed low off the coast of
Washington state. Downstream of the closed low, a low amplitude
ridge was present from the western Dakotas into southern
Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. A low amplitude trough of low
pressure extended from southern Quebec south to New England.
Across the southern third of the CONUS, high pressure extended
from west Texas to Florida. Shortwave disturbances were present
on the northern periphery of the high over the central plains and
central and southern Rockies. A broad area of showers and
thunderstorms extended from central Kansas southwest to the
northeastern Texas panhandle. Further north across northeastern
Colorado, southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas,
thunderstorms from earlier this evening, have decayed overnight.
At the surface, low pressure was located over southeastern
Montana with a surface trough of low pressure extending south
into eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Skies overnight
were partly to mostly cloudy with 3 AM CDT temperatures ranging
from 66 at Imperial to 71 at North Platte and Thedford.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is
precipitation chances and the threat for thunderstorms late this
afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms will initiate later this
afternoon and early this evening along the surface trough in
eastern Wyoming, the western Nebraska panhandle and northeastern
Colorado as surface heating combines with the arrival of a decent
shortwave trough which will lift across the central rockies later
today. Convection will lift east into western and north central
Nebraska into the evening hours and is expected to sustain itself
thanks to an increasing low level jet later this evening and
abundant low level moisture and increased instability aloft. As
for the threat for severe storms this afternoon and evening.
Based on thunderstorm timing and location of highest deep layer
shear, strong to low end severe storms are possible in the
western half of the CWA. The severe threat will diminish east of
highway 83 as thunderstorm timing will be later and deep layer
shear weaker. Highs today will be in the 90s while lows tonight
will be in the upper 50s in the west to around 70 in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Cooler day on Saturday compared to Friday behind the cold front.
Widespread highs in the 80s. Could still see a few storms in the
eastern zones post frontal however higher chances are further
east along and ahead of the front. Canadian high pressure settles
overhead Saturday night with lows at or below normal with temps
bottoming out for most locations in the lower to mid 50s. High is
still in command for Sunday with a dry day expected, however will
have to monitor a disturbance the EC continues to advertise
moving across the area. Overnight a low level jet is anticipated
to spark a few isold showers, with support from the
EC/Canadian/GFS.

Active pattern to start the work week. Ridge remains across the
desert southwest with progressive northwest flow for the high
plains. Models are tracking several disturbances across the area
and expect on and off chance for showers. Timing is a still a
little uncertain however good model agreement with a stronger
wave tuesday night reinforced by a nocturnal low level jet and
will have high chance/likely pops, otherwise slight to low chance
pops.

Temps will be tricky as clouds will be a big player, however
generally not to far from seasonal temps with highs in the 80s
and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(for the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at
1137 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms linger in southwest nebraska
mainly southwest of the klbf terminal. The activity should remain
outside the klbf vicinity. The next round of thunderstorms are
forecast to move into western Nebraska by early evening and may
affect the klbf terminal near and after 03z. Have introduced a
prob30 for 4sm tsra attm. Thunderstorms may also move into the
kvtn terminal by late friday evening, with confidence too low to
mention.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The flood warning was cancelled earlier this evening for the
North Platte river at Lewellen. River levels will remain elevated
along the North Platte river at Lewellen and North Platte,
however no additional flooding is expected at this time.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Roberg
HYDROLOGY...Buttler




000
FXUS63 KOAX 240811
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
311 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

00z upper-air analysis revealed low-amplitude ridging from the
Canadian Prairie Provinces into the northern Plains, ahead of the
next short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast.
This ridge axis will shift east today into the upper Mississippi
Valley in response to the progression of the Pacific Northwest
short-wave trough into the northern Rockies. This upper-air
pattern evolution will promote the eastward development of a weak
surface low from eastern Montana into central North Dakota by this
evening while an associated Pacific front advances east across
the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, a baroclinic zone which has
become quasi-stationary across Kansas into the Ozarks will develop
north through the mid Missouri Valley today, eventually linking
with the Pacific front moving through South Dakota.

Low-level moisture will increase today in the vicinity of the
retreating warm front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates, yielding moderate afternoon instability over eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa. However, convergence will not be
particularly strong along the boundary owing to negligible large-
scale forcing for ascent. Moreover, there is some indication in
forecast soundings that weak capping centered around 750 mb may
persist through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. The upshot
is that thunderstorm development today is a bit more uncertain,
and as such, we will include only slight chance pops during the
afternoon.

Tonight, a 40-50 kt low-level jet will strengthen from the
central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, ahead of the
short-wave trough moving into the northern High Plains and the
Pacific front which will be advancing through the Dakotas and
western Nebraska. While isolated storms will remain possible, the
strongest moisture flux and low-level forcing for ascent will
remain to our north over the upper Mississippi Valley.

Saturday and Saturday night, the surface front will advance
southeast through the area with the passage of the short-wave
trough to our north along the International Border. Daytime
heating coupled with a moist boundary layer and modestly steep
lapse rates will promote moderate afternoon instability within the
warm sector where mlcape will approach 2000-2500+ J/kg.
Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity during the
afternoon as the front interacts with the increasingly unstable
air mass. While the strongest vertical shear will reside to our
north, the degree of instability will be supportive of a few strong
to marginally severe storms capable of locally damaging winds and
perhaps some hail. Thunderstorm chances will diminish from north
to south across the area late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night with the equatorward progression of the front.

Sunday, dry conditions are expected as a weak low-level ridge
axis develops through the mid Missouri Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A mid-level trough over Ontario at the onset of the extended
period will amplify over eastern North America with an upstream
ridge intensifying from the Four-Corners region into western
Canada. 00z medium-range guidance indicates a series of weak
perturbations cresting the ridge axis and subsequently translating
southeast through the northern and central Plains, resulting in a
chance of thunderstorms through the early to middle part of this
upcoming week. The best storm chances and potential for heavy
rainfall appear to be tied to an impulse which will track from
Montana into the mid Missouri Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This weather system will also draw a slightly cooler air mass into
the region around mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions with increasing high clouds overnight. Low level
moisture will increase with south winds and with increasing theta-e
advection some isolated showers and thunderstorms will try to
develop Friday morning. Coverage too low to mention. A weak
shortwave combined with heating Friday afternoon and abundant
moisture may be enough for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening. The cap is weakest in southeast Nebraska and southwest
iowa...so may mention vcts around 00z to hint at potential tsra
development. Southeast winds increase Friday afternoon to 10 to
20kts.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Zapotocny




000
FXUS63 KOAX 240811
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
311 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

00z upper-air analysis revealed low-amplitude ridging from the
Canadian Prairie Provinces into the northern Plains, ahead of the
next short-wave trough moving onto the Pacific Northwest coast.
This ridge axis will shift east today into the upper Mississippi
Valley in response to the progression of the Pacific Northwest
short-wave trough into the northern Rockies. This upper-air
pattern evolution will promote the eastward development of a weak
surface low from eastern Montana into central North Dakota by this
evening while an associated Pacific front advances east across
the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, a baroclinic zone which has
become quasi-stationary across Kansas into the Ozarks will develop
north through the mid Missouri Valley today, eventually linking
with the Pacific front moving through South Dakota.

Low-level moisture will increase today in the vicinity of the
retreating warm front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates, yielding moderate afternoon instability over eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa. However, convergence will not be
particularly strong along the boundary owing to negligible large-
scale forcing for ascent. Moreover, there is some indication in
forecast soundings that weak capping centered around 750 mb may
persist through the peak of the diurnal heating cycle. The upshot
is that thunderstorm development today is a bit more uncertain,
and as such, we will include only slight chance pops during the
afternoon.

Tonight, a 40-50 kt low-level jet will strengthen from the
central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, ahead of the
short-wave trough moving into the northern High Plains and the
Pacific front which will be advancing through the Dakotas and
western Nebraska. While isolated storms will remain possible, the
strongest moisture flux and low-level forcing for ascent will
remain to our north over the upper Mississippi Valley.

Saturday and Saturday night, the surface front will advance
southeast through the area with the passage of the short-wave
trough to our north along the International Border. Daytime
heating coupled with a moist boundary layer and modestly steep
lapse rates will promote moderate afternoon instability within the
warm sector where mlcape will approach 2000-2500+ J/kg.
Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity during the
afternoon as the front interacts with the increasingly unstable
air mass. While the strongest vertical shear will reside to our
north, the degree of instability will be supportive of a few strong
to marginally severe storms capable of locally damaging winds and
perhaps some hail. Thunderstorm chances will diminish from north
to south across the area late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night with the equatorward progression of the front.

Sunday, dry conditions are expected as a weak low-level ridge
axis develops through the mid Missouri Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A mid-level trough over Ontario at the onset of the extended
period will amplify over eastern North America with an upstream
ridge intensifying from the Four-Corners region into western
Canada. 00z medium-range guidance indicates a series of weak
perturbations cresting the ridge axis and subsequently translating
southeast through the northern and central Plains, resulting in a
chance of thunderstorms through the early to middle part of this
upcoming week. The best storm chances and potential for heavy
rainfall appear to be tied to an impulse which will track from
Montana into the mid Missouri Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This weather system will also draw a slightly cooler air mass into
the region around mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions with increasing high clouds overnight. Low level
moisture will increase with south winds and with increasing theta-e
advection some isolated showers and thunderstorms will try to
develop Friday morning. Coverage too low to mention. A weak
shortwave combined with heating Friday afternoon and abundant
moisture may be enough for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening. The cap is weakest in southeast Nebraska and southwest
iowa...so may mention vcts around 00z to hint at potential tsra
development. Southeast winds increase Friday afternoon to 10 to
20kts.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Zapotocny




000
FXUS63 KGID 240549
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1249 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The primary concern through these next 72 hours or so involves
various chances for thunderstorms, and the possibility that at
least a few of them could become strong-to-severe. Before saying
another word, want to make it clear that confidence in the
likelihood/placement of thunderstorm chances (PoPs) is definitely
and unfortunately running lower-than-average, and as a result
PoPs have most certainly been held below 60+ percent "likely"
percentages through this entire time frame. As just one small
taste of the considerable uncertainty that riddles this
precipitation forecast, right away tonight, models such as the
latest 18z NAM keep our entire CWA high-and-dry, while models such
as the 12z GFS develop a suspiciously widespread amount of
convection.

Fortunately, confidence is running a bit higher in
other areas such as temperatures/winds, as each of the next 3 days
look to average a bit warmer than today with highs mainly in the
low-mid 90s, with the exception of Saturday when especially our
northwest zones are expected to be held down in the 80s behind a
passing cold front.

Taking a quick look at the current scene as of 330 PM:
Overall things have turned out largely as expected today, with a
mix of sun and at-times plentiful clouds, and fairly light
(generally 8-14 MPH) northerly/easterly breezes flowing clockwise
from a surface high centered over the eastern Dakotas/MN. With
seasonably comfortable dewpoints in the 50s, high temps will
"only" reach the mid 80s in most places, and more so upper 80s to
near-90 in KS zones. It has remained dry all day thus far, but a
fairly compact-but-strong complex of storms has tracked within a
few counties south of the CWA within central/southern KS, largely
associated with remnant mesoscale disturbance/MCV from the
overnight hours.

Now looking ahead forecast-wise, and keeping things on the brief
side:

This evening/tonight:
As mentioned in the opener, confidence in PoPs is fairly low.
Taking a compromise of some of the various extremes offered in the
models, have decided to confine any pre-midnight storm chances to
areas near/south of the state line, while bringing only small
chances north to roughly the I-80 corridor after midnight. Working
against convective development will be fairly weak forcing in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft, along with halfway decent
inhibition/capping even to elevated parcels (as noted by previous
overnight forecaster). However, there will be a weak-but-evident
low level jet and its associated moisture-advection developing
tonight, and besides there is always a possibility that convection
developing well to our west over the High Plains could possibly
survive eastward, especially into our southern zones. All in all,
don`t count on rain tonight, but it just cannot be completely
ruled out in most of the CWA. Low temps should average solidly 5+
degrees warmer than last night (especially in Neb zones), mainly
mid-upper 60s.

Friday daytime:
Odds are fairly high that most of the CWA sees a dry and warmer
day, but with at least one weak mid level disturbance expected to
cross the area, along with fairly weak capping (especially in
eastern zones), felt obligated to carry at least slight chances
CWA-wide through the day. If in fact any storms are able to pop
during the afternoon, a few severe storms are not completely out
of the question, and hence the SPC Day 2 Marginal risk. Confidence
is higher that it will be a warmer and breezier day as winds pick
up out of the south-southeast, with sustained speeds generally
15-20 MPH during the afternoon. Assuming that clouds aren`t
abundant, nudged up highs slightly from previous, aiming for
near-90 northeast to mid 90s southwest. Far southeast zones could
flirt with 100 heat index, but safely below advisory.

Friday night:
A somewhat stronger lead disturbance moves into the area, on the
southeast periphery of the larger/stronger shortwave trough
crossing the Northern Rockies. Again models vary on the thunder
chances, but due to the combo of activity developing overhead
and/or possibly moving in from the west, will go with modest 30-40
PoPs for now. Lows staying warm, up into the low and possibly mid
70s.

Saturday/Saturday night:
At the very least, a bit more confidence in rain chances here, as
the aforementioned stronger wave slices along the US-Canadian
border to our north, and pushes a fairly well-defined cold front
through the CWA during the day. Unlike the last frontal passage on
Wednesday, mid level temps appear cool enough to allow convective
development along/slightly behind the front. While models vary on
how much of the CWA is affected, at the very least, our
southern/eastern zones should see a halfway decent chance of
afternoon/evening storms, possibly developing into a slow-moving
line. It`s not a terribly impressive severe weather setup, but
given the expectation of roughly up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and around
30kt of deep layer shear, the SPC Day 3 Marginal risk for roughly
the southeast 2/3 of our CWA seems warranted. The cold front could
easily promote a 10-15 degree gradient in high temps, and am
aiming from mid 80s far northwest to mid 90s southeast.

Sunday daytime:
While it is entirely possible that this is a dry/storm-free day
behind the departing northern CONUS system (such as depicted by
the NAM), other models such as the ECMWF/GFS suggest that at least
our southern zones could see some limited thunderstorm development
given that the surface front and instability axis stalls out in
that area. Again, confidence low, but will run with some slight
PoPS mainly in KS zones for now. Temp-wise, yet another above-
average day with low-mid 90s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday daytime through Thursday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Primary forecast concern through the long term lies with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Models are in pretty good agreement at the start of the period
Monday morning, showing low amplitude northwesterly flow in place
across the region. Set up between troughing from low pressure over
the Hudson Bay area and high pressure over the desert southwest,
doesn`t look to be much change in that through the day. At the
surface, somewhere in the area is expected to be a warm frontal
boundary. Hard to have a lot of confidence this far out regarding
front location, but at this point models not in bad agreement
showing it draped through the southern half of the CWA. Continue to
carry 20-30 PoPs in the forecast for Mon/Mon night, but there are
some notable differences between models with the amount of precip
that develops across the area, with the GFS remaining on the most
aggressive side.

Overall, models not showing any notable changes in the pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday. This leaves the CWA potentially under the
influence of periodic upper level shortwave disturbances riding
around the edge of the ridging, keeping those thunderstorm chances
in place each day. How much of an impact those disturbances will
have on our area will be affected by the strength of the western
high/ridging, with recent runs showing our area kind of on the edge
of the better capping just to the west. Kept PoPs in the 20-50%
range, with the best chances currently being Tues night into Wed.
Instability/shear parameters keep the concern for strong/severe
weather in mind, but it`s just too early to try and nail down those
specifics.

As far as temperatures go, Monday is currently the warmest day of
the period, with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Cooler air building in from the north is shown by models to bring
mid/upper 80s for highs Tuesday, and lower/mid 80s for Wednesday.
Lows for most remain in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Any thunderstorms overnight should remain well south in Kansas. As
a warm front moves east across the area today, thunderstorms could
fire along the boundary by afternoon. The warm front should make
its way far enough east to not be a factor for KEAR, but could be
a factor for KGRI, but just barely. Kept VCTS in for the
afternoon, but more likely, any thunderstorm activity will fire
just east of KGRI. We could get close to having LLWS issues Friday
night, but mostly just after 06Z Saturday, beyond the scope of
this forecast.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pfannkuch
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Heinlein




000
FXUS63 KGID 240549
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1249 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The primary concern through these next 72 hours or so involves
various chances for thunderstorms, and the possibility that at
least a few of them could become strong-to-severe. Before saying
another word, want to make it clear that confidence in the
likelihood/placement of thunderstorm chances (PoPs) is definitely
and unfortunately running lower-than-average, and as a result
PoPs have most certainly been held below 60+ percent "likely"
percentages through this entire time frame. As just one small
taste of the considerable uncertainty that riddles this
precipitation forecast, right away tonight, models such as the
latest 18z NAM keep our entire CWA high-and-dry, while models such
as the 12z GFS develop a suspiciously widespread amount of
convection.

Fortunately, confidence is running a bit higher in
other areas such as temperatures/winds, as each of the next 3 days
look to average a bit warmer than today with highs mainly in the
low-mid 90s, with the exception of Saturday when especially our
northwest zones are expected to be held down in the 80s behind a
passing cold front.

Taking a quick look at the current scene as of 330 PM:
Overall things have turned out largely as expected today, with a
mix of sun and at-times plentiful clouds, and fairly light
(generally 8-14 MPH) northerly/easterly breezes flowing clockwise
from a surface high centered over the eastern Dakotas/MN. With
seasonably comfortable dewpoints in the 50s, high temps will
"only" reach the mid 80s in most places, and more so upper 80s to
near-90 in KS zones. It has remained dry all day thus far, but a
fairly compact-but-strong complex of storms has tracked within a
few counties south of the CWA within central/southern KS, largely
associated with remnant mesoscale disturbance/MCV from the
overnight hours.

Now looking ahead forecast-wise, and keeping things on the brief
side:

This evening/tonight:
As mentioned in the opener, confidence in PoPs is fairly low.
Taking a compromise of some of the various extremes offered in the
models, have decided to confine any pre-midnight storm chances to
areas near/south of the state line, while bringing only small
chances north to roughly the I-80 corridor after midnight. Working
against convective development will be fairly weak forcing in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft, along with halfway decent
inhibition/capping even to elevated parcels (as noted by previous
overnight forecaster). However, there will be a weak-but-evident
low level jet and its associated moisture-advection developing
tonight, and besides there is always a possibility that convection
developing well to our west over the High Plains could possibly
survive eastward, especially into our southern zones. All in all,
don`t count on rain tonight, but it just cannot be completely
ruled out in most of the CWA. Low temps should average solidly 5+
degrees warmer than last night (especially in Neb zones), mainly
mid-upper 60s.

Friday daytime:
Odds are fairly high that most of the CWA sees a dry and warmer
day, but with at least one weak mid level disturbance expected to
cross the area, along with fairly weak capping (especially in
eastern zones), felt obligated to carry at least slight chances
CWA-wide through the day. If in fact any storms are able to pop
during the afternoon, a few severe storms are not completely out
of the question, and hence the SPC Day 2 Marginal risk. Confidence
is higher that it will be a warmer and breezier day as winds pick
up out of the south-southeast, with sustained speeds generally
15-20 MPH during the afternoon. Assuming that clouds aren`t
abundant, nudged up highs slightly from previous, aiming for
near-90 northeast to mid 90s southwest. Far southeast zones could
flirt with 100 heat index, but safely below advisory.

Friday night:
A somewhat stronger lead disturbance moves into the area, on the
southeast periphery of the larger/stronger shortwave trough
crossing the Northern Rockies. Again models vary on the thunder
chances, but due to the combo of activity developing overhead
and/or possibly moving in from the west, will go with modest 30-40
PoPs for now. Lows staying warm, up into the low and possibly mid
70s.

Saturday/Saturday night:
At the very least, a bit more confidence in rain chances here, as
the aforementioned stronger wave slices along the US-Canadian
border to our north, and pushes a fairly well-defined cold front
through the CWA during the day. Unlike the last frontal passage on
Wednesday, mid level temps appear cool enough to allow convective
development along/slightly behind the front. While models vary on
how much of the CWA is affected, at the very least, our
southern/eastern zones should see a halfway decent chance of
afternoon/evening storms, possibly developing into a slow-moving
line. It`s not a terribly impressive severe weather setup, but
given the expectation of roughly up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and around
30kt of deep layer shear, the SPC Day 3 Marginal risk for roughly
the southeast 2/3 of our CWA seems warranted. The cold front could
easily promote a 10-15 degree gradient in high temps, and am
aiming from mid 80s far northwest to mid 90s southeast.

Sunday daytime:
While it is entirely possible that this is a dry/storm-free day
behind the departing northern CONUS system (such as depicted by
the NAM), other models such as the ECMWF/GFS suggest that at least
our southern zones could see some limited thunderstorm development
given that the surface front and instability axis stalls out in
that area. Again, confidence low, but will run with some slight
PoPS mainly in KS zones for now. Temp-wise, yet another above-
average day with low-mid 90s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday daytime through Thursday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Primary forecast concern through the long term lies with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Models are in pretty good agreement at the start of the period
Monday morning, showing low amplitude northwesterly flow in place
across the region. Set up between troughing from low pressure over
the Hudson Bay area and high pressure over the desert southwest,
doesn`t look to be much change in that through the day. At the
surface, somewhere in the area is expected to be a warm frontal
boundary. Hard to have a lot of confidence this far out regarding
front location, but at this point models not in bad agreement
showing it draped through the southern half of the CWA. Continue to
carry 20-30 PoPs in the forecast for Mon/Mon night, but there are
some notable differences between models with the amount of precip
that develops across the area, with the GFS remaining on the most
aggressive side.

Overall, models not showing any notable changes in the pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday. This leaves the CWA potentially under the
influence of periodic upper level shortwave disturbances riding
around the edge of the ridging, keeping those thunderstorm chances
in place each day. How much of an impact those disturbances will
have on our area will be affected by the strength of the western
high/ridging, with recent runs showing our area kind of on the edge
of the better capping just to the west. Kept PoPs in the 20-50%
range, with the best chances currently being Tues night into Wed.
Instability/shear parameters keep the concern for strong/severe
weather in mind, but it`s just too early to try and nail down those
specifics.

As far as temperatures go, Monday is currently the warmest day of
the period, with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Cooler air building in from the north is shown by models to bring
mid/upper 80s for highs Tuesday, and lower/mid 80s for Wednesday.
Lows for most remain in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Any thunderstorms overnight should remain well south in Kansas. As
a warm front moves east across the area today, thunderstorms could
fire along the boundary by afternoon. The warm front should make
its way far enough east to not be a factor for KEAR, but could be
a factor for KGRI, but just barely. Kept VCTS in for the
afternoon, but more likely, any thunderstorm activity will fire
just east of KGRI. We could get close to having LLWS issues Friday
night, but mostly just after 06Z Saturday, beyond the scope of
this forecast.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pfannkuch
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Heinlein




000
FXUS63 KOAX 240452
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1152 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Our 00z OAX sounding showed moisture around h5 with drier
conditions below h5 and 1.03 for pwat. Overnight...deeper moisture
will return across the forecast area with pwat increasing between
12Z and 18z to 1.75 pwat. Theta-e advection combined with
shortwave over southeast Wyoming moving toward the Missouri River
Valley could touch off a few elevated isolated storms later
tonight and Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Weak high pressure across the region has brought a stellar day to
the area, with temps in the 70s and lower 80s, and comfortable
humidity. There is an MCV moving through central KS this afternoon,
and any convection associated with that is expected to remain
south of the area. Looking aloft, there is a very weak subtle wave
moving through the central Rockies. This could reach the central
plains overnight, while a low level jet develops across the
region. The GFS has remained consistent in developing some
isolated convection on the nose of the jet mostly in southeast NE,
but other models remain. dry. Not confident that the upper wave
will be far enough east to provide the support, but will maintain
slight chance POPs late tonight after midnight.

The upper wave should be moving through the mid Missouri valley
through the day Friday. While the forcing is weak, it could be
enough to at least keep a small chance of storms going through the
day. Shear is not impressively strong at 25 to 30 knots but could
result in a few stronger storms in the afternoon and evening.

Weak height falls aloft combined with the strengthening low level
jet could keep precip chances in the area Friday night. This will
be ahead of a stronger cold front that moves into the area
Saturday. Cold front arrives into the heart of the area at peak
heating. Shear again isn`t overly strong at 25 to 30 knots, but
given instability, there will be an associated severe weather
threat that lingers into Saturday evening.

The front then continues to make slow progress southward and may
be south of the region by Sunday. It could also hang up just south
of the area, thus it may be close enough to keep lingering precip
chances along the NE/KS border through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Northwest flow prevails through the period. The previously mentioned
frontal boundary remains south of the area and probably just washes
out. Then it becomes trying to time any weak waves moving out of
the northern rockies. Small precip chances remain in the forecast,
although the best chance looks like Tuesday night into Wednesday
as a healthy MCS rolls across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions with increasing high clouds overnight. Low level
moisture will increase with south winds and with increasing theta-e
advection some isolated showers and thunderstorms will try to
develop Friday morning. Coverage too low to mention. A weak
shortwave combined with heating Friday afternoon and abundant
moisture may be enough for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening. The cap is weakest in southeast Nebraska and southwest
iowa...so may mention vcts around 00z to hint at potential tsra
development. Southeast winds increase Friday afternoon to 10 to
20kts.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Zapotocny
SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Zapotocny




000
FXUS63 KLBF 240437 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1137 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

H5 analysis from the 12z sounding revealed a broad ridge of high
pressure extending north from the Desert Southwest well into the
central Canadian Prairies.  Bookending the ridge are two notable
troughs...one just west of British Columbia...and the other centered
from New England north toward southeastern Nunavut.  A fairly robust
shortwave/pv max was noted near the Great Lakes as well.  Otherwise
current water vapor imagery shows a wide expanse of dry air from
Texas east through Georgia/Florida and the remains of a once
decaying mcs now re-intensifying over central Kansas.  Of interest
is a weak disturbance over the central Rockies which is sparking a
few thunderstorms along Front Range of CO/NM. Temperatures as of 3pm
range from the mid 70s over north central Nebraska...to the mid 80s
across our far southwest.  TD`s are generally in the mid 50s across
much of the cwa...with upper 50s across our southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is precipitation
chances tonight and again tomorrow night.

Moist southeast flow ahead of an approaching ridge will continue to
increase dew points and supply for the possibility of convection
tonight and into tomorrow. However, instability will be
significantly limited as you head toward central Nebraska underneath
a strong cap. Further west, thunderstorms are expected to initiate
late this afternoon into the early evening as a short wave moves
into eastern Wyoming and Colorado. These storms will track east
through the panhandle and will eventually fizzle out as they reach
central Nebraska. How far east they make it will be the question as
there is not a lot to sustain them with weak to marginal shear and
limited instability once you get closer to the surface high sliding
southeast out of the Dakotas. The best chance for a stronger storm
this evening will be along the southwestern periphery of the high
from about Ogallala to Curtis south and west.

Tomorrow, a warm front will lift across the area early in the
morning with another hot day expected. Highs should be into the 90s
with western zones in the mid to upper 90s. Late in the day a trough
will move off the high terrain and could be a focus for
thunderstorms but most of the day will be hot and dry until this
feature arrives.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Beginning 00z Saturday.  Main focus in the extended periods is on
the prospects of convection.  The aforementioned trough west of BC
will move inland and rapidly advance east across the northern
Rockies on Friday.  The latest guidance indicates the development of
thunderstorms from the central high plains north through the Dakotas
tomorrow with the activity spreading east onto the plains during the
evening hours.  The greatest forcing is well north of the cwa...but
the environment still favors a strong storm or two across sw
Nebraska and the eastern panhandle...with the potential of storms
lingering well into the overnight hours as a central plains LLJ
forms.  Will continue to only carry a 20-30% mention across the much
of the cwa through the overnight as there remains questions on
whether the cap will break or not. Convection chances will be tied
to a frontal boundary on Saturday...which will be east of the
forecast area during the afternoon.  Will maintain a slight chance
mention along our eastern border to account for the possibility of a
few post frontal showers/storms.  Otherwise temperatures will be
noticeably cooler...with highs largely in the 80s.  The upper ridge
will re-amplify across the west on Sunday but cool Canadian high
pressure over the Arrowhead of MN will help keep the warmest
readings to the west.  Highs will warm some Sunday...but only into
the upper 80s.  Will keep the forecast dry for Sunday...but will
need to monitor as the ecmwf shows a weak disturbance sparking off
more afternoon convection.

Next week the upper ridge anchors to the west of the forecast
area...leaving mainly northwest flow across the plains.  The models
are struggling with timing...but all indicate several disturbances
passing through the flow bring thunderstorms chances back to the
region.  Monday night through Wednesday has the best chances at this
point for storms...and with clouds impacting heating...highs should
stay in the 80s to lower 90s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(for the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at
1137 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms linger in southwest nebraska
mainly southwest of the klbf terminal. The activity should remain
outside the klbf vicinity. The next round of thunderstorms are
forecast to move into westrn Nebraska by early evening and may
affect the klbf terminal near and after 03z. Have introduced a
prob30 for 4sm tsra attm. Thunderstorms may also move into the
kvtn terminal by late friday evening, with confidence too low to
mention.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The North Platte River at Lewellen has finally fallen below flood
stage as releases upstream from Lake McConaughy continue to
decrease. It is expected to remain within action stage through at
least early next week.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jacobs
SHORT TERM...Allen
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Roberg
HYDROLOGY...Roberg




000
FXUS63 KLBF 240437 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1137 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

H5 analysis from the 12z sounding revealed a broad ridge of high
pressure extending north from the Desert Southwest well into the
central Canadian Prairies.  Bookending the ridge are two notable
troughs...one just west of British Columbia...and the other centered
from New England north toward southeastern Nunavut.  A fairly robust
shortwave/pv max was noted near the Great Lakes as well.  Otherwise
current water vapor imagery shows a wide expanse of dry air from
Texas east through Georgia/Florida and the remains of a once
decaying mcs now re-intensifying over central Kansas.  Of interest
is a weak disturbance over the central Rockies which is sparking a
few thunderstorms along Front Range of CO/NM. Temperatures as of 3pm
range from the mid 70s over north central Nebraska...to the mid 80s
across our far southwest.  TD`s are generally in the mid 50s across
much of the cwa...with upper 50s across our southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is precipitation
chances tonight and again tomorrow night.

Moist southeast flow ahead of an approaching ridge will continue to
increase dew points and supply for the possibility of convection
tonight and into tomorrow. However, instability will be
significantly limited as you head toward central Nebraska underneath
a strong cap. Further west, thunderstorms are expected to initiate
late this afternoon into the early evening as a short wave moves
into eastern Wyoming and Colorado. These storms will track east
through the panhandle and will eventually fizzle out as they reach
central Nebraska. How far east they make it will be the question as
there is not a lot to sustain them with weak to marginal shear and
limited instability once you get closer to the surface high sliding
southeast out of the Dakotas. The best chance for a stronger storm
this evening will be along the southwestern periphery of the high
from about Ogallala to Curtis south and west.

Tomorrow, a warm front will lift across the area early in the
morning with another hot day expected. Highs should be into the 90s
with western zones in the mid to upper 90s. Late in the day a trough
will move off the high terrain and could be a focus for
thunderstorms but most of the day will be hot and dry until this
feature arrives.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Beginning 00z Saturday.  Main focus in the extended periods is on
the prospects of convection.  The aforementioned trough west of BC
will move inland and rapidly advance east across the northern
Rockies on Friday.  The latest guidance indicates the development of
thunderstorms from the central high plains north through the Dakotas
tomorrow with the activity spreading east onto the plains during the
evening hours.  The greatest forcing is well north of the cwa...but
the environment still favors a strong storm or two across sw
Nebraska and the eastern panhandle...with the potential of storms
lingering well into the overnight hours as a central plains LLJ
forms.  Will continue to only carry a 20-30% mention across the much
of the cwa through the overnight as there remains questions on
whether the cap will break or not. Convection chances will be tied
to a frontal boundary on Saturday...which will be east of the
forecast area during the afternoon.  Will maintain a slight chance
mention along our eastern border to account for the possibility of a
few post frontal showers/storms.  Otherwise temperatures will be
noticeably cooler...with highs largely in the 80s.  The upper ridge
will re-amplify across the west on Sunday but cool Canadian high
pressure over the Arrowhead of MN will help keep the warmest
readings to the west.  Highs will warm some Sunday...but only into
the upper 80s.  Will keep the forecast dry for Sunday...but will
need to monitor as the ecmwf shows a weak disturbance sparking off
more afternoon convection.

Next week the upper ridge anchors to the west of the forecast
area...leaving mainly northwest flow across the plains.  The models
are struggling with timing...but all indicate several disturbances
passing through the flow bring thunderstorms chances back to the
region.  Monday night through Wednesday has the best chances at this
point for storms...and with clouds impacting heating...highs should
stay in the 80s to lower 90s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(for the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at
1137 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms linger in southwest nebraska
mainly southwest of the klbf terminal. The activity should remain
outside the klbf vicinity. The next round of thunderstorms are
forecast to move into westrn Nebraska by early evening and may
affect the klbf terminal near and after 03z. Have introduced a
prob30 for 4sm tsra attm. Thunderstorms may also move into the
kvtn terminal by late friday evening, with confidence too low to
mention.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The North Platte River at Lewellen has finally fallen below flood
stage as releases upstream from Lake McConaughy continue to
decrease. It is expected to remain within action stage through at
least early next week.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jacobs
SHORT TERM...Allen
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Roberg
HYDROLOGY...Roberg




000
FXUS63 KOAX 240323
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1023 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Our 00z OAX sounding showed moisture around h5 with drier
conditions below h5 and 1.03 for pwat. Overnight...deeper moisture
will return across the forecast area with pwat increasing between
12Z and 18z to 1.75 pwat. Theta-e advection combined with
shortwave over southeast Wyoming moving toward the Missouri River
Valley could touch off a few elevated isolated storms later
tonight and Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Weak high pressure across the region has brought a stellar day to
the area, with temps in the 70s and lower 80s, and comfortable
humidity. There is an MCV moving through central KS this afternoon,
and any convection associated with that is expected to remain
south of the area. Looking aloft, there is a very weak subtle wave
moving through the central Rockies. This could reach the central
plains overnight, while a low level jet develops across the
region. The GFS has remained consistent in developing some
isolated convection on the nose of the jet mostly in southeast NE,
but other models remain. dry. Not confident that the upper wave
will be far enough east to provide the support, but will maintain
slight chance POPs late tonight after midnight.

The upper wave should be moving through the mid Missouri valley
through the day Friday. While the forcing is weak, it could be
enough to at least keep a small chance of storms going through the
day. Shear is not impressively strong at 25 to 30 knots but could
result in a few stronger storms in the afternoon and evening.

Weak height falls aloft combined with the strengthening low level
jet could keep precip chances in the area Friday night. This will
be ahead of a stronger cold front that moves into the area
Saturday. Cold front arrives into the heart of the area at peak
heating. Shear again isn`t overly strong at 25 to 30 knots, but
given instability, there will be an associated severe weather
threat that lingers into Saturday evening.

The front then continues to make slow progress southward and may
be south of the region by Sunday. It could also hang up just south
of the area, thus it may be close enough to keep lingering precip
chances along the NE/KS border through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Northwest flow prevails through the period. The previously mentioned
frontal boundary remains south of the area and probably just washes
out. Then it becomes trying to time any weak waves moving out of
the northern rockies. Small precip chances remain in the forecast,
although the best chance looks like Tuesday night into Wednesday
as a healthy MCS rolls across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions with patchy clouds fl150-250 overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms will try to develop over parts of southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa Friday. It is uncertain how far north the
storms will make it...thus will not include them in the TAFs at
this time.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Zapotocny
SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Zapotocny




000
FXUS63 KGID 240010
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
710 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The primary concern through these next 72 hours or so involves
various chances for thunderstorms, and the possibility that at
least a few of them could become strong-to-severe. Before saying
another word, want to make it clear that confidence in the
likelihood/placement of thunderstorm chances (PoPs) is definitely
and unfortunately running lower-than-average, and as a result
PoPs have most certainly been held below 60+ percent "likely"
percentages through this entire time frame. As just one small
taste of the considerable uncertainty that riddles this
precipitation forecast, right away tonight, models such as the
latest 18z NAM keep our entire CWA high-and-dry, while models such
as the 12z GFS develop a suspiciously widespread amount of
convection.

Fortunately, confidence is running a bit higher in
other areas such as temperatures/winds, as each of the next 3 days
look to average a bit warmer than today with highs mainly in the
low-mid 90s, with the exception of Saturday when especially our
northwest zones are expected to be held down in the 80s behind a
passing cold front.

Taking a quick look at the current scene as of 330 PM:
Overall things have turned out largely as expected today, with a
mix of sun and at-times plentiful clouds, and fairly light
(generally 8-14 MPH) northerly/easterly breezes flowing clockwise
from a surface high centered over the eastern Dakotas/MN. With
seasonably comfortable dewpoints in the 50s, high temps will
"only" reach the mid 80s in most places, and more so upper 80s to
near-90 in KS zones. It has remained dry all day thus far, but a
fairly compact-but-strong complex of storms has tracked within a
few counties south of the CWA within central/southern KS, largely
associated with remnant mesoscale disturbance/MCV from the
overnight hours.

Now looking ahead forecast-wise, and keeping things on the brief
side:

This evening/tonight:
As mentioned in the opener, confidence in PoPs is fairly low.
Taking a compromise of some of the various extremes offered in the
models, have decided to confine any pre-midnight storm chances to
areas near/south of the state line, while bringing only small
chances north to roughly the I-80 corridor after midnight. Working
against convective development will be fairly weak forcing in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft, along with halfway decent
inhibition/capping even to elevated parcels (as noted by previous
overnight forecaster). However, there will be a weak-but-evident
low level jet and its associated moisture-advection developing
tonight, and besides there is always a possibility that convection
developing well to our west over the High Plains could possibly
survive eastward, especially into our southern zones. All in all,
don`t count on rain tonight, but it just cannot be completely
ruled out in most of the CWA. Low temps should average solidly 5+
degrees warmer than last night (especially in Neb zones), mainly
mid-upper 60s.

Friday daytime:
Odds are fairly high that most of the CWA sees a dry and warmer
day, but with at least one weak mid level disturbance expected to
cross the area, along with fairly weak capping (especially in
eastern zones), felt obligated to carry at least slight chances
CWA-wide through the day. If in fact any storms are able to pop
during the afternoon, a few severe storms are not completely out
of the question, and hence the SPC Day 2 Marginal risk. Confidence
is higher that it will be a warmer and breezier day as winds pick
up out of the south-southeast, with sustained speeds generally
15-20 MPH during the afternoon. Assuming that clouds aren`t
abundant, nudged up highs slightly from previous, aiming for
near-90 northeast to mid 90s southwest. Far southeast zones could
flirt with 100 heat index, but safely below advisory.

Friday night:
A somewhat stronger lead disturbance moves into the area, on the
southeast periphery of the larger/stronger shortwave trough
crossing the Northern Rockies. Again models vary on the thunder
chances, but due to the combo of activity developing overhead
and/or possibly moving in from the west, will go with modest 30-40
PoPs for now. Lows staying warm, up into the low and possibly mid
70s.

Saturday/Saturday night:
At the very least, a bit more confidence in rain chances here, as
the aforementioned stronger wave slices along the US-Canadian
border to our north, and pushes a fairly well-defined cold front
through the CWA during the day. Unlike the last frontal passage on
Wednesday, mid level temps appear cool enough to allow convective
development along/slightly behind the front. While models vary on
how much of the CWA is affected, at the very least, our
southern/eastern zones should see a halfway decent chance of
afternoon/evening storms, possibly developing into a slow-moving
line. It`s not a terribly impressive severe weather setup, but
given the expectation of roughly up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and around
30kt of deep layer shear, the SPC Day 3 Marginal risk for roughly
the southeast 2/3 of our CWA seems warranted. The cold front could
easily promote a 10-15 degree gradient in high temps, and am
aiming from mid 80s far northwest to mid 90s southeast.

Sunday daytime:
While it is entirely possible that this is a dry/storm-free day
behind the departing northern CONUS system (such as depicted by
the NAM), other models such as the ECMWF/GFS suggest that at least
our southern zones could see some limited thunderstorm development
given that the surface front and instability axis stalls out in
that area. Again, confidence low, but will run with some slight
PoPS mainly in KS zones for now. Temp-wise, yet another above-
average day with low-mid 90s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday daytime through Thursday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Primary forecast concern through the long term lies with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Models are in pretty good agreement at the start of the period
Monday morning, showing low amplitude northwesterly flow in place
across the region. Set up between troughing from low pressure over
the Hudson Bay area and high pressure over the desert southwest,
doesn`t look to be much change in that through the day. At the
surface, somewhere in the area is expected to be a warm frontal
boundary. Hard to have a lot of confidence this far out regarding
front location, but at this point models not in bad agreement
showing it draped through the southern half of the CWA. Continue to
carry 20-30 PoPs in the forecast for Mon/Mon night, but there are
some notable differences between models with the amount of precip
that develops across the area, with the GFS remaining on the most
aggressive side.

Overall, models not showing any notable changes in the pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday. This leaves the CWA potentially under the
influence of periodic upper level shortwave disturbances riding
around the edge of the ridging, keeping those thunderstorm chances
in place each day. How much of an impact those disturbances will
have on our area will be affected by the strength of the western
high/ridging, with recent runs showing our area kind of on the edge
of the better capping just to the west. Kept PoPs in the 20-50%
range, with the best chances currently being Tues night into Wed.
Instability/shear parameters keep the concern for strong/severe
weather in mind, but it`s just too early to try and nail down those
specifics.

As far as temperatures go, Monday is currently the warmest day of
the period, with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Cooler air building in from the north is shown by models to bring
mid/upper 80s for highs Tuesday, and lower/mid 80s for Wednesday.
Lows for most remain in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the rest of tonight
with generally light easterly winds.

Friday morning there is the possibility for brief MVFR ceilings as
clouds move into the area from the southeast overnight but have kept
VFR conditions for now with scattered clouds at 3500ft.

As we move into the day time on Friday winds will become southerly
and could be gusty at times. Speeds of 10-20mph and gusts near 30mph
are possible. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon but confidence is too low to mention it at this
time.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pfannkuch
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Billings Wright/Petr




000
FXUS63 KOAX 240002
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
702 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Weak high pressure across the region has brought a stellar day to
the area, with temps in the 70s and lower 80s, and comfortable
humidity. There is an MCV moving through central KS this afternoon,
and any convection associated with that is expected to remain
south of the area. Looking aloft, there is a very weak subtle wave
moving through the central Rockies. This could reach the central
plains overnight, while a low level jet develops across the
region. The GFS has remained consistent in developing some
isolated convection on the nose of the jet mostly in southeast NE,
but other models remain. dry. Not confident that the upper wave
will be far enough east to provide the support, but will maintain
slight chance POPs late tonight after midnight.

The upper wave should be moving through the mid Missouri valley
through the day Friday. While the forcing is weak, it could be
enough to at least keep a small chance of storms going through the
day. Shear is not impressively strong at 25 to 30 knots but could
result in a few stronger storms in the afternoon and evening.

Weak height falls aloft combined with the strengthening low level
jet could keep precip chances in the area Friday night. This will
be ahead of a stronger cold front that moves into the area
Saturday. Cold front arrives into the heart of the area at peak
heating. Shear again isn`t overly strong at 25 to 30 knots, but
given instability, there will be an associated severe weather
threat that lingers into Saturday evening.

The front then continues to make slow progress southward and may
be south of the region by Sunday. It could also hang up just south
of the area, thus it may be close enough to keep lingering precip
chances along the NE/KS border through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Northwest flow prevails through the period. The previously mentioned
frontal boundary remains south of the area and probably just washes
out. Then it becomes trying to time any weak waves moving out of
the northern rockies. Small precip chances remain in the forecast,
although the best chance looks like Tuesday night into Wednesday
as a healthy MCS rolls across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions with patchy clouds fl150-250 overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms will try to develop over parts of southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa Friday. It is uncertain how far north the
storms will make it...thus will not include them in the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Zapotocny




000
FXUS63 KLBF 232344
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
644 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

H5 analysis from the 12z sounding revealed a broad ridge of high
pressure extending north from the Desert Southwest well into the
central Canadian Prairies.  Bookending the ridge are two notable
troughs...one just west of British Columbia...and the other centered
from New England north toward southeastern Nunavut.  A fairly robust
shortwave/pv max was noted near the Great Lakes as well.  Otherwise
current water vapor imagery shows a wide expanse of dry air from
Texas east through Georgia/Florida and the remains of a once
decaying mcs now re-intensifying over central Kansas.  Of interest
is a weak disturbance over the central Rockies which is sparking a
few thunderstorms along Front Range of CO/NM. Temperatures as of 3pm
range from the mid 70s over north central Nebraska...to the mid 80s
across our far southwest.  TD`s are generally in the mid 50s across
much of the cwa...with upper 50s across our southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is precipitation
chances tonight and again tomorrow night.

Moist southeast flow ahead of an approaching ridge will continue to
increase dew points and supply for the possibility of convection
tonight and into tomorrow. However, instability will be
significantly limited as you head toward central Nebraska underneath
a strong cap. Further west, thunderstorms are expected to initiate
late this afternoon into the early evening as a short wave moves
into eastern Wyoming and Colorado. These storms will track east
through the panhandle and will eventually fizzle out as they reach
central Nebraska. How far east they make it will be the question as
there is not a lot to sustain them with weak to marginal shear and
limited instability once you get closer to the surface high sliding
southeast out of the Dakotas. The best chance for a stronger storm
this evening will be along the southwestern periphery of the high
from about Ogallala to Curtis south and west.

Tomorrow, a warm front will lift across the area early in the
morning with another hot day expected. Highs should be into the 90s
with western zones in the mid to upper 90s. Late in the day a trough
will move off the high terrain and could be a focus for
thunderstorms but most of the day will be hot and dry until this
feature arrives.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Beginning 00z Saturday.  Main focus in the extended periods is on
the prospects of convection.  The aforementioned trough west of BC
will move inland and rapidly advance east across the northern
Rockies on Friday.  The latest guidance indicates the development of
thunderstorms from the central high plains north through the Dakotas
tomorrow with the activity spreading east onto the plains during the
evening hours.  The greatest forcing is well north of the cwa...but
the environment still favors a strong storm or two across sw
Nebraska and the eastern panhandle...with the potential of storms
lingering well into the overnight hours as a central plains LLJ
forms.  Will continue to only carry a 20-30% mention across the much
of the cwa through the overnight as there remains questions on
whether the cap will break or not. Convection chances will be tied
to a frontal boundary on Saturday...which will be east of the
forecast area during the afternoon.  Will maintain a slight chance
mention along our eastern border to account for the possibility of a
few post frontal showers/storms.  Otherwise temperatures will be
noticeably cooler...with highs largely in the 80s.  The upper ridge
will re-amplify across the west on Sunday but cool Canadian high
pressure over the Arrowhead of MN will help keep the warmest
readings to the west.  Highs will warm some Sunday...but only into
the upper 80s.  Will keep the forecast dry for Sunday...but will
need to monitor as the ecmwf shows a weak disturbance sparking off
more afternoon convection.

Next week the upper ridge anchors to the west of the forecast
area...leaving mainly northwest flow across the plains.  The models
are struggling with timing...but all indicate several disturbances
passing through the flow bring thunderstorms chances back to the
region.  Monday night through Wednesday has the best chances at this
point for storms...and with clouds impacting heating...highs should
stay in the 80s to lower 90s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Vfr conditions for the klbf and kvtn terminals. Mainly some cirrus
blowoff overnight from evening storms in the western Nebraska
panhandle.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

No snow remains below 10kft in the North and South Platte regions
and runoff season has effectively ended. The North Platte River at
North Platte has finally fallen below flood stage as releases from
Lake McConaughy continue to decrease. It is expected to remain
within action stage through at least early next week. Minor flooding
is expected to continue along the North Platte river at Lewellen
into next week. River levels along the Platte river at Brady have
fallen below action stage.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jacobs
SHORT TERM...Allen
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Roberg
HYDROLOGY...Allen




000
FXUS63 KGID 232112
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
412 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The primary concern through these next 72 hours or so involves
various chances for thunderstorms, and the possibility that at
least a few of them could become strong-to-severe. Before saying
another word, want to make it clear that confidence in the
likelihood/placement of thunderstorm chances (PoPs) is definitely
and unfortunately running lower-than-average, and as a result
PoPs have most certainly been held below 60+ percent "likely"
percentages through this entire time frame. As just one small
taste of the considerable uncertainty that riddles this
precipitation forecast, right away tonight, models such as the
latest 18z NAM keep our entire CWA high-and-dry, while models such
as the 12z GFS develop a suspiciously widespread amount of
convection.

Fortunately, confidence is running a bit higher in
other areas such as temperatures/winds, as each of the next 3 days
look to average a bit warmer than today with highs mainly in the
low-mid 90s, with the exception of Saturday when especially our
northwest zones are expected to be held down in the 80s behind a
passing cold front.

Taking a quick look at the current scene as of 330 PM:
Overall things have turned out largely as expected today, with a
mix of sun and at-times plentiful clouds, and fairly light
(generally 8-14 MPH) northerly/easterly breezes flowing clockwise
from a surface high centered over the eastern Dakotas/MN. With
seasonably comfortable dewpoints in the 50s, high temps will
"only" reach the mid 80s in most places, and more so upper 80s to
near-90 in KS zones. It has remained dry all day thus far, but a
fairly compact-but-strong complex of storms has tracked within a
few counties south of the CWA within central/southern KS, largely
associated with remnant mesoscale disturbance/MCV from the
overnight hours.

Now looking ahead forecast-wise, and keeping things on the brief
side:

This evening/tonight:
As mentioned in the opener, confidence in PoPs is fairly low.
Taking a compromise of some of the various extremes offered in the
models, have decided to confine any pre-midnight storm chances to
areas near/south of the state line, while bringing only small
chances north to roughly the I-80 corridor after midnight. Working
against convective development will be fairly weak forcing in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft, along with halfway decent
inhibition/capping even to elevated parcels (as noted by previous
overnight forecaster). However, there will be a weak-but-evident
low level jet and its associated moisture-advection developing
tonight, and besides there is always a possibility that convection
developing well to our west over the High Plains could possibly
survive eastward, especially into our southern zones. All in all,
don`t count on rain tonight, but it just cannot be completely
ruled out in most of the CWA. Low temps should average solidly 5+
degrees warmer than last night (especially in Neb zones), mainly
mid-upper 60s.

Friday daytime:
Odds are fairly high that most of the CWA sees a dry and warmer
day, but with at least one weak mid level disturbance expected to
cross the area, along with fairly weak capping (especially in
eastern zones), felt obligated to carry at least slight chances
CWA-wide through the day. If in fact any storms are able to pop
during the afternoon, a few severe storms are not completely out
of the question, and hence the SPC Day 2 Marginal risk. Confidence
is higher that it will be a warmer and breezier day as winds pick
up out of the south-southeast, with sustained speeds generally
15-20 MPH during the afternoon. Assuming that clouds aren`t
abundant, nudged up highs slightly from previous, aiming for
near-90 northeast to mid 90s southwest. Far southeast zones could
flirt with 100 heat index, but safely below advisory.

Friday night:
A somewhat stronger lead disturbance moves into the area, on the
southeast periphery of the larger/stronger shortwave trough
crossing the Northern Rockies. Again models vary on the thunder
chances, but due to the combo of activity developing overhead
and/or possibly moving in from the west, will go with modest 30-40
PoPs for now. Lows staying warm, up into the low and possibly mid
70s.

Saturday/Saturday night:
At the very least, a bit more confidence in rain chances here, as
the aforementioned stronger wave slices along the US-Canadian
border to our north, and pushes a fairly well-defined cold front
through the CWA during the day. Unlike the last frontal passage on
Wednesday, mid level temps appear cool enough to allow convective
development along/slightly behind the front. While models vary on
how much of the CWA is affected, at the very least, our
southern/eastern zones should see a halfway decent chance of
afternoon/evening storms, possibly developing into a slow-moving
line. It`s not a terribly impressive severe weather setup, but
given the expectation of roughly up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and around
30kt of deep layer shear, the SPC Day 3 Marginal risk for roughly
the southeast 2/3 of our CWA seems warranted. The cold front could
easily promote a 10-15 degree gradient in high temps, and am
aiming from mid 80s far northwest to mid 90s southeast.

Sunday daytime:
While it is entirely possible that this is a dry/storm-free day
behind the departing northern CONUS system (such as depicted by
the NAM), other models such as the ECMWF/GFS suggest that at least
our southern zones could see some limited thunderstorm development
given that the surface front and instability axis stalls out in
that area. Again, confidence low, but will run with some slight
PoPS mainly in KS zones for now. Temp-wise, yet another above-
average day with low-mid 90s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday daytime through Thursday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Primary forecast concern through the long term lies with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Models are in pretty good agreement at the start of the period
Monday morning, showing low amplitude northwesterly flow in place
across the region. Set up between troughing from low pressure over
the Hudson Bay area and high pressure over the desert southwest,
doesn`t look to be much change in that through the day. At the
surface, somewhere in the area is expected to be a warm frontal
boundary. Hard to have a lot of confidence this far out regarding
front location, but at this point models not in bad agreement
showing it draped through the southern half of the CWA. Continue to
carry 20-30 PoPs in the forecast for Mon/Mon night, but there are
some notable differences between models with the amount of precip
that develops across the area, with the GFS remaining on the most
aggressive side.

Overall, models not showing any notable changes in the pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday. This leaves the CWA potentially under the
influence of periodic upper level shortwave disturbances riding
around the edge of the ridging, keeping those thunderstorm chances
in place each day. How much of an impact those disturbances will
have on our area will be affected by the strength of the western
high/ridging, with recent runs showing our area kind of on the edge
of the better capping just to the west. Kept PoPs in the 20-50%
range, with the best chances currently being Tues night into Wed.
Instability/shear parameters keep the concern for strong/severe
weather in mind, but it`s just too early to try and nail down those
specifics.

As far as temperatures go, Monday is currently the warmest day of
the period, with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Cooler air building in from the north is shown by models to bring
mid/upper 80s for highs Tuesday, and lower/mid 80s for Wednesday.
Lows for most remain in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Brief overview:
Confidence is fairly high in VFR visibility/ceiling through the
period, with the main question mark being whether thunderstorm
activity might become an issue mainly during the latter half.

Ceiling/visibility:
A few models are hinting at the possibility of a lower-end VFR
ceiling this evening or even a brief MVFR ceiling toward Friday
morning, but will officially stick with VFR for now.

Precipitation/thunderstorms:
Confidence is rather high in dry/storm-free conditions through the
first half of the period, but at least some hit-and-miss/isolated
activity is probably not out of the question during the latter
half. However, confidence in any such activity directly affecting
the terminals simply remains too low to even justify a "vicinity"
mention at this time.

Winds:
Surface winds will gradually veer from generally easterly this
afternoon to more southeasterly as the period goes on. Sustained
speeds the vast majority of the time should average under 12kt,
except for slightly higher speeds by late Friday morning/early
afternoon.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pfannkuch
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch




000
FXUS63 KGID 232112
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
412 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The primary concern through these next 72 hours or so involves
various chances for thunderstorms, and the possibility that at
least a few of them could become strong-to-severe. Before saying
another word, want to make it clear that confidence in the
likelihood/placement of thunderstorm chances (PoPs) is definitely
and unfortunately running lower-than-average, and as a result
PoPs have most certainly been held below 60+ percent "likely"
percentages through this entire time frame. As just one small
taste of the considerable uncertainty that riddles this
precipitation forecast, right away tonight, models such as the
latest 18z NAM keep our entire CWA high-and-dry, while models such
as the 12z GFS develop a suspiciously widespread amount of
convection.

Fortunately, confidence is running a bit higher in
other areas such as temperatures/winds, as each of the next 3 days
look to average a bit warmer than today with highs mainly in the
low-mid 90s, with the exception of Saturday when especially our
northwest zones are expected to be held down in the 80s behind a
passing cold front.

Taking a quick look at the current scene as of 330 PM:
Overall things have turned out largely as expected today, with a
mix of sun and at-times plentiful clouds, and fairly light
(generally 8-14 MPH) northerly/easterly breezes flowing clockwise
from a surface high centered over the eastern Dakotas/MN. With
seasonably comfortable dewpoints in the 50s, high temps will
"only" reach the mid 80s in most places, and more so upper 80s to
near-90 in KS zones. It has remained dry all day thus far, but a
fairly compact-but-strong complex of storms has tracked within a
few counties south of the CWA within central/southern KS, largely
associated with remnant mesoscale disturbance/MCV from the
overnight hours.

Now looking ahead forecast-wise, and keeping things on the brief
side:

This evening/tonight:
As mentioned in the opener, confidence in PoPs is fairly low.
Taking a compromise of some of the various extremes offered in the
models, have decided to confine any pre-midnight storm chances to
areas near/south of the state line, while bringing only small
chances north to roughly the I-80 corridor after midnight. Working
against convective development will be fairly weak forcing in the
quasi-zonal flow aloft, along with halfway decent
inhibition/capping even to elevated parcels (as noted by previous
overnight forecaster). However, there will be a weak-but-evident
low level jet and its associated moisture-advection developing
tonight, and besides there is always a possibility that convection
developing well to our west over the High Plains could possibly
survive eastward, especially into our southern zones. All in all,
don`t count on rain tonight, but it just cannot be completely
ruled out in most of the CWA. Low temps should average solidly 5+
degrees warmer than last night (especially in Neb zones), mainly
mid-upper 60s.

Friday daytime:
Odds are fairly high that most of the CWA sees a dry and warmer
day, but with at least one weak mid level disturbance expected to
cross the area, along with fairly weak capping (especially in
eastern zones), felt obligated to carry at least slight chances
CWA-wide through the day. If in fact any storms are able to pop
during the afternoon, a few severe storms are not completely out
of the question, and hence the SPC Day 2 Marginal risk. Confidence
is higher that it will be a warmer and breezier day as winds pick
up out of the south-southeast, with sustained speeds generally
15-20 MPH during the afternoon. Assuming that clouds aren`t
abundant, nudged up highs slightly from previous, aiming for
near-90 northeast to mid 90s southwest. Far southeast zones could
flirt with 100 heat index, but safely below advisory.

Friday night:
A somewhat stronger lead disturbance moves into the area, on the
southeast periphery of the larger/stronger shortwave trough
crossing the Northern Rockies. Again models vary on the thunder
chances, but due to the combo of activity developing overhead
and/or possibly moving in from the west, will go with modest 30-40
PoPs for now. Lows staying warm, up into the low and possibly mid
70s.

Saturday/Saturday night:
At the very least, a bit more confidence in rain chances here, as
the aforementioned stronger wave slices along the US-Canadian
border to our north, and pushes a fairly well-defined cold front
through the CWA during the day. Unlike the last frontal passage on
Wednesday, mid level temps appear cool enough to allow convective
development along/slightly behind the front. While models vary on
how much of the CWA is affected, at the very least, our
southern/eastern zones should see a halfway decent chance of
afternoon/evening storms, possibly developing into a slow-moving
line. It`s not a terribly impressive severe weather setup, but
given the expectation of roughly up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and around
30kt of deep layer shear, the SPC Day 3 Marginal risk for roughly
the southeast 2/3 of our CWA seems warranted. The cold front could
easily promote a 10-15 degree gradient in high temps, and am
aiming from mid 80s far northwest to mid 90s southeast.

Sunday daytime:
While it is entirely possible that this is a dry/storm-free day
behind the departing northern CONUS system (such as depicted by
the NAM), other models such as the ECMWF/GFS suggest that at least
our southern zones could see some limited thunderstorm development
given that the surface front and instability axis stalls out in
that area. Again, confidence low, but will run with some slight
PoPS mainly in KS zones for now. Temp-wise, yet another above-
average day with low-mid 90s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday daytime through Thursday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Primary forecast concern through the long term lies with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

Models are in pretty good agreement at the start of the period
Monday morning, showing low amplitude northwesterly flow in place
across the region. Set up between troughing from low pressure over
the Hudson Bay area and high pressure over the desert southwest,
doesn`t look to be much change in that through the day. At the
surface, somewhere in the area is expected to be a warm frontal
boundary. Hard to have a lot of confidence this far out regarding
front location, but at this point models not in bad agreement
showing it draped through the southern half of the CWA. Continue to
carry 20-30 PoPs in the forecast for Mon/Mon night, but there are
some notable differences between models with the amount of precip
that develops across the area, with the GFS remaining on the most
aggressive side.

Overall, models not showing any notable changes in the pattern for
Tuesday and Wednesday. This leaves the CWA potentially under the
influence of periodic upper level shortwave disturbances riding
around the edge of the ridging, keeping those thunderstorm chances
in place each day. How much of an impact those disturbances will
have on our area will be affected by the strength of the western
high/ridging, with recent runs showing our area kind of on the edge
of the better capping just to the west. Kept PoPs in the 20-50%
range, with the best chances currently being Tues night into Wed.
Instability/shear parameters keep the concern for strong/severe
weather in mind, but it`s just too early to try and nail down those
specifics.

As far as temperatures go, Monday is currently the warmest day of
the period, with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Cooler air building in from the north is shown by models to bring
mid/upper 80s for highs Tuesday, and lower/mid 80s for Wednesday.
Lows for most remain in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Brief overview:
Confidence is fairly high in VFR visibility/ceiling through the
period, with the main question mark being whether thunderstorm
activity might become an issue mainly during the latter half.

Ceiling/visibility:
A few models are hinting at the possibility of a lower-end VFR
ceiling this evening or even a brief MVFR ceiling toward Friday
morning, but will officially stick with VFR for now.

Precipitation/thunderstorms:
Confidence is rather high in dry/storm-free conditions through the
first half of the period, but at least some hit-and-miss/isolated
activity is probably not out of the question during the latter
half. However, confidence in any such activity directly affecting
the terminals simply remains too low to even justify a "vicinity"
mention at this time.

Winds:
Surface winds will gradually veer from generally easterly this
afternoon to more southeasterly as the period goes on. Sustained
speeds the vast majority of the time should average under 12kt,
except for slightly higher speeds by late Friday morning/early
afternoon.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pfannkuch
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch




000
FXUS63 KLBF 232033
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
333 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

H5 analysis from the 12z sounding revealed a broad ridge of high
pressure extending north from the Desert Southwest well into the
central Canadian Prairies.  Bookending the ridge are two notable
troughs...one just west of British Columbia...and the other centered
from New England north toward southeastern Nunavut.  A fairly robust
shortwave/pv max was noted near the Great Lakes as well.  Otherwise
current water vapor imagery shows a wide expanse of dry air from
Texas east through Georgia/Florida and the remains of a once
decaying mcs now re-intensifying over central Kansas.  Of interest
is a weak disturbance over the central Rockies which is sparking a
few thunderstorms along Front Range of CO/NM. Temperatures as of 3pm
range from the mid 70s over north central Nebraska...to the mid 80s
across our far southwest.  TD`s are generally in the mid 50s across
much of the cwa...with upper 50s across our southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is precipitation
chances tonight and again tomorrow night.

Moist southeast flow ahead of an approaching ridge will continue to
increase dew points and supply for the possibility of convection
tonight and into tomorrow. However, instability will be
significantly limited as you head toward central Nebraska underneath
a strong cap. Further west, thunderstorms are expected to initiate
late this afternoon into the early evening as a short wave moves
into eastern Wyoming and Colorado. These storms will track east
through the panhandle and will eventually fizzle out as they reach
central Nebraska. How far east they make it will be the question as
there is not a lot to sustain them with weak to marginal shear and
limited instability once you get closer to the surface high sliding
southeast out of the Dakotas. The best chance for a stronger storm
this evening will be along the southwestern periphery of the high
from about Ogallala to Curtis south and west.

Tomorrow, a warm front will lift across the area early in the
morning with another hot day expected. Highs should be into the 90s
with western zones in the mid to upper 90s. Late in the day a trough
will move off the high terrain and could be a focus for
thunderstorms but most of the day will be hot and dry until this
feature arrives.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Beginning 00z Saturday.  Main focus in the extended periods is on
the prospects of convection.  The aforementioned trough west of BC
will move inland and rapidly advance east across the northern
Rockies on Friday.  The latest guidance indicates the development of
thunderstorms from the central high plains north through the Dakotas
tomorrow with the activity spreading east onto the plains during the
evening hours.  The greatest forcing is well north of the cwa...but
the environment still favors a strong storm or two across sw
Nebraska and the eastern panhandle...with the potential of storms
lingering well into the overnight hours as a central plains LLJ
forms.  Will continue to only carry a 20-30% mention across the much
of the cwa through the overnight as there remains questions on
whether the cap will break or not. Convection chances will be tied
to a frontal boundary on Saturday...which will be east of the
forecast area during the afternoon.  Will maintain a slight chance
mention along our eastern border to account for the possibility of a
few post frontal showers/storms.  Otherwise temperatures will be
noticeably cooler...with highs largely in the 80s.  The upper ridge
will re-amplify across the west on Sunday but cool Canadian high
pressure over the Arrowhead of MN will help keep the warmest
readings to the west.  Highs will warm some Sunday...but only into
the upper 80s.  Will keep the forecast dry for Sunday...but will
need to monitor as the ecmwf shows a weak disturbance sparking off
more afternoon convection.

Next week the upper ridge anchors to the west of the forecast
area...leaving mainly northwest flow across the plains.  The models
are struggling with timing...but all indicate several disturbances
passing through the flow bring thunderstorms chances back to the
region.  Monday night through Wednesday has the best chances at this
point for storms...and with clouds impacting heating...highs should
stay in the 80s to lower 90s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Skies will remain mostly clear with VFR conditions persisting over
the next 24 hours. Winds will be breezy out of the southeast around
10kts. Have decided to keep showers and thunderstorms out of the TAF
at this time, as confidence in thunderstorms developing near
KLBF remains low, will continue to monitor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

No snow remains below 10kft in the North and South Platte regions
and runoff season has effectively ended. The North Platte River at
North Platte has finally fallen below flood stage as releases from
Lake McConaughy continue to decrease. It is expected to remain
within action stage through at least early next week. Minor flooding
is expected to continue along the North Platte river at Lewellen
into next week. River levels along the Platte river at Brady have
fallen below action stage.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jacobs
SHORT TERM...Allen
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Gomez
HYDROLOGY...Allen




000
FXUS63 KOAX 232004
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
304 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Weak high pressure across the region has brought a stellar day to
the area, with temps in the 70s and lower 80s, and comfortable
humidity. There is an MCV moving through central KS this afternoon,
and any convection associated with that is expected to remain
south of the area. Looking aloft, there is a very weak subtle wave
moving through the central Rockies. This could reach the central
plains overnight, while a low level jet develops across the
region. The GFS has remained consistent in developing some
isolated convection on the nose of the jet mostly in southeast NE,
but other models remain. dry. Not confident that the upper wave
will be far enough east to provide the support, but will maintain
slight chance POPs late tonight after midnight.

The upper wave should be moving through the mid Missouri valley
through the day Friday. While the forcing is weak, it could be
enough to at least keep a small chance of storms going through the
day. Shear is not impressively strong at 25 to 30 knots but could
result in a few stronger storms in the afternoon and evening.

Weak height falls aloft combined with the strengthening low level
jet could keep precip chances in the area Friday night. This will
be ahead of a stronger cold front that moves into the area
Saturday. Cold front arrives into the heart of the area at peak
heating. Shear again isn`t overly strong at 25 to 30 knots, but
given instability, there will be an associated severe weather
threat that lingers into Saturday evening.

The front then continues to make slow progress southward and may
be south of the region by Sunday. It could also hang up just south
of the area, thus it may be close enough to keep lingering precip
chances along the NE/KS border through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Northwest flow prevails through the period. The previously mentioned
frontal boundary remains south of the area and probably just washes
out. Then it becomes trying to time any weak waves moving out of
the northern rockies. Small precip chances remain in the forecast,
although the best chance looks like Tuesday night into Wednesday
as a healthy MCS rolls across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. There is an
increasing chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms late in
the TAF cycle so did add a PROB30 in KLNK and KOMA.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Kern




000
FXUS63 KGID 231755
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1255 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Aloft: Subtropical high pres was parked over the Srn 1/3 of the
CONUS with the main belt of Westerlies over the Nrn 1/3. A low
amplitude ridge extended from WY/MT N into Canada. A closed low
was just off the Pac NW. This low has been dropping SSE and will
move onshore into WA/OR tonight. This will force some modest
amplification as wavelengths shorten. The ridge will move over the
Nrn Plains tonight.

Surface: The weak cool front that moved thru yesterday morning
was over Srn KS into the OK/TX panhandles. Canadian high pres has
dropped into the Dakotas. This high will drift SE into the upr
Midwest. Meanwhile...this front will remain quasi-stationary
along the KS/OK border most of today...but begin lifting back N
across KS as a warm front tonight. This as lee cyclogenesis occurs
tonight over MT. The front should still be just S of the fcst
area by dawn Fri.

Today: Overall should average p/cloudy due to cloud debris from
yesterdays tstms upstream over CO. One small cluster of tstms has
cont`d thru the night over SW KS. High-res models with explicit
convection apparently are keying on outflow and the remnant
convectively-generated vort max associated with this cluster to
initiate other storms as early as midday over S-cntrl KS. There is
a slight chance the Nrn fringe of this activity could brush parts
of Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell counties...but it`s doubtful. Most of
the tstm activity will remain over Srn KS...close to the front and
vort max.

Tonight: More storms will fire W and S of the fcst area late this
afternoon and eve...and that will send more cloud debris into the
fcst area. So expect p-m/cloudy. Can`t rule out a little tstm
activity...mainly over S-cntrl KS.

The low-lvl moisture plume associated with the front will
gradually begin to advect NW back into the fcst area this
afternoon and tonight...with WAA intensifying as a 30 kt low-lvl
jet develops. Increasing 850 mb dwpts may still not be enough as
fcst soundings show substantial CIN will remain. But if saturation
occurs around 700 mb after 3 AM tonight...that could result in a
few elevated tstms with 1000 J/kg of CAPE available.

Deep layer shear (1-6 km) will be weak (around 20 kts) this
afternoon and weaken further to 10-15 kts tonight. That will
result in very slow storm movement and poor storm organization and
life times...limiting the svr threat.

Given this environment...we`ll run with hail up to the size of
nickels and gusts up to 50 mph associated with any tstms that
develop over N-cntrl KS late this afternoon/eve. Elsewhere...no
strong or svr tstms expected.

Fcst confidence: average thru tonight. Believe we are probably
too high with the probability of precip (PoP) thru tonight...
especially over S-cntrl Neb. This is the main weakness in this
fcst. The 00Z EC ensemble probabilities for at least .10" QPF in
24 hrs are greatest along and S of I-70. 03Z SREF probs have the
same idea.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

There could be some leftover convection on Friday morning from a
nocturnal MCS as some models continue to indicate this. Although
we will be mostly in the warm sector as a warm front will have
returned and probably moved east of most of the CWA, we could re-
fire along the boundary, especially east/northeast by Friday
afternoon/evening.

By Saturday, there is good agreement that a trough with a closed
low will travel from the northern Rocky Mountains into the
northern plains near the Canadian border. This will drag a cold
front into the CWA by Saturday afternoon/evening and with decent
bulk shear by late June standards, could give us a shot at some
severe weather, and an enhanced shot at some rain.

This front may hit a snag and could hang out just south/southeast
of the CWA for a few days and may actually move back north a bit,
and give us more chances of rain, which we definitely need. Also,
we will be within northwest flow with several probable
perturbations and jet streak induced rain chances to give us a
shot at rain for most of the extended forecast.

Temperatures will continue to be generally above normal until
early next week, but not as much above normal as temperatures have
recently been, with highs generally in the 80s/90s, and possibly
cooling off to near or slightly below normal in the lower/mid 80s
for Tuesday through Thursday, with an especially good shot of rain
coming Tuesday night as the nearly stationary boundary will be
nearby, along with a nearby upper level jet streak and developing
low-level jet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Brief overview:
Confidence is fairly high in VFR visibility/ceiling through the
period, with the main question mark being whether thunderstorm
activity might become an issue mainly during the latter half.

Ceiling/visibility:
A few models are hinting at the possibility of a lower-end VFR
ceiling this evening or even a brief MVFR ceiling toward Friday
morning, but will officially stick with VFR for now.

Precipitation/thunderstorms:
Confidence is rather high in dry/storm-free conditions through the
first half of the period, but at least some hit-and-miss/isolated
activity is probably not out of the question during the latter
half. However, confidence in any such activity directly affecting
the terminals simply remains too low to even justify a "vicinity"
mention at this time.

Winds:
Surface winds will gradually veer from generally easterly this
afternoon to more southeasterly as the period goes on. Sustained
speeds the vast majority of the time should average under 12kt,
except for slightly higher speeds by late Friday morning/early
afternoon.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Halblaub
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Pfannkuch




000
FXUS63 KLBF 231732
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1232 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had an elongated area of
high pressure extending from New Mexico east into the
southeastern states. Across the remainder of the CONUS an active
northern stream was present with a decent shortwave trough of low
pressure over northern Minnesota and a second trough over New
England. Further west, a closed low was present off the coast of
British Columbia. Across the high plains and intermountain west,
current wv imagery and IR satellite pics have a disturbance over
southern Colorado, northern New Mexico, extending east into the
far northern Texas panhandle, Oklahoma panhandle and southwestern
Kansas. Thunderstorms in association with this disturbance,
continue to drift to the north northeast over far southwestern
Kansas. These storms have decreased in coverage over the past
hour based on lightning data. At the surface, a frontal boundary
extended from northern Missouri, southwest to southwestern
Kansas, then north northwest across the front range of Colorado.
Skies were partly to mostly cloudy overnight as a veil of high
clouds has overspread western and north central Nebraska.
Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT ranged from 57 at North Platte to 62
at Imperial and O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is
precipitation chances late this afternoon and tonight. The
frontal boundary will remain anchored off to the west of the
forecast area this morning as high pressure drops southeast from
the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi valley. As this
feature tracks east of the Dakotas this afternoon, southerly
winds will begin to increase on the back side of the exiting high
which will force the frontal boundary east into the Nebraska
Panhandle and eastern Colorado. Low level moisture will increase
across eastern Colorado, western Kansas and the Nebraska
Panhandle INVOF of the front this afternoon. With surface heating
and the arrival of a shortwave trough this afternoon,
thunderstorms are expected to initiate off to the west of the
forecast area later this afternoon. Thunderstorms will track east
into the western and southwestern forecast area this evening,
weakening as they track to the east this evening. The latest NAM
and GFS solutions indicate a stable airmass east of a line from
Valentine to North Platte to Curtis. With this in mind, kept pops
for tonight generally west of this line as will dissipate as it
hits the stable airmass in the central and eastern forecast area.
As for the severe threat, it appears fairly limited ATTM as deep
layer shear is weak across the forecast area this evening.
However, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out across far
southwestern portions of the forecast area where SB CAPES top
2000 J/KG around 00z.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Warm front will lift across the area by Friday morning with a
warm day in store. Highs should be into the 90s with western
zones in the mid to upper 90s. Late in the day a trough will move
off the high terrain and could be a focus for thunderstorms. Warm
temps are aloft and could be enough to cap development so pops
remain low. A better chance for storms is with the cold front that
move across the area Friday night.

Cooler conditions on Saturday with highs in the 80s. Lingering
chance for storms along and post frontal due to steep lapse rate
in the far eastern zones. Severe parameters are weak over the CWA
with a better chance ahead of the front in eastern Nebraska were
the SPC has a marginal risk.

Sunday with sunny skies and high pressure, highs in the upper 80s
to around 90. Low level jet overnight might spark a storm or two
although confidence is low.

Next week the upper level ridge remains anchored over the desert
southwest. A few passing disturbances will bring a couple chances
for storms, although timing a little tricky this far out. Temps
also difficult as waves will bring clouds and could alter temps by
a couple of categories. The EC and the GFS are in agreement the
ridge although show some timing differences which will need to be
ironed out over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Skies will remain mostly clear with VFR conditions persisting over
the next 24 hours. Winds will be breezy out of the southeast around
10kts. Have decided to keep showers and thunderstorms out of the TAF
at this time, as confidence in thunderstorms developing near
KLBF remains low, will continue to monitor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Minor flooding is expected to continue along the North Platte
river at Lewellen into next week. Elevated river levels will
continue into next week along the North Platte river at North
Platte. River levels along the Platte river at Brady are expected
to fall below action stage on Friday.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Gomez
HYDROLOGY...Buttler




000
FXUS63 KOAX 231720
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1220 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Cooler and less humid weather today, then gradual increase in
temperatures, humidity and thunderstorm chances into Saturday, are
the primary concerns with this forecast.

Cold front had moved well south of eastern Nebraska and southwest
Iowa by this morning, stretching from south central Kansas into
northeast Missouri. Surface dew points in the 50s were spreading
south behind the front, and will cover all of our area for today.
Modest layer cooling was occurring as well, as high pressure was
ridging south from the Northern Plains into the Mid Missouri
Valley. That high is forecast to settle southeast into Minnesota
and Iowa today, maintaining a north or northeast surface wind
here. Cooling of lower atmosphere, scattered clouds, and light
northeast winds will lead to much cooler afternoon highs today
ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s across eastern Nebraska
and southwest Iowa.

Beyond today, overall weather pattern will promote increasing
temperatures, humidity and precipitation chances. Upper low is
forecast to swing onto the Pacific Northwest coast by Friday
morning, then progress east along the Canadian border to a southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba position by Saturday afternoon. Increasing
southwest mid level flow ahead of this system will induce lowering
surface pressures in the lee of the Rockies, which in turn will
promote moisture return in the Plains.

Precipitation chances will begin later tonight as isentropic upglide
commences over retreating southern Kansas frontal boundary. Focus
will initially be to our west this evening before shifting into
southeast Nebraska toward or after midnight. Continued theta-e
advection over boundary will bring precipitation chances across much
of the rest of eastern Nebraska and into southwest Iowa late tonight
and during the day Friday. Will likely see a respite in rain chances
later Friday afternoon and evening before strong warm advection
begins later Friday night ahead of cold front diving through central
South Dakota. While low level jet will focus better theta-e
convergence north of our area, northeast Nebraska could certainly
see elevated convection after 06Z Saturday.

Perhaps the best chance for thunderstorms, some potentially severe,
will be associated with cold front swinging through our area during
the day Saturday. Surging instability under cooling temperatures
aloft should lead to afternoon convection along and ahead of this
front, with GFS suggesting areas near and southeast of Interstate 80
are most at risk. Shear profiles are modest at best in our area,
favoring area farther north along front where forcing is
maximized. But instability and convergence along front should be
plenty for potential for at least isolated severe.

Temperatures will warm each day Friday and Saturday, ranging from
the 80s north to lower 90s south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Northwest flow aloft will develop in the central CONUS behind
exiting upper low moving north of the Great Lakes for much of the
longer term period. Saturday cold front should settle south and
west of eastern Nebraska, and will generally remain there through
the middle of next week given parallel steering flow. Impulses
riding through the northwest flow will bring occasional chances
for overrunning-type precipitation in eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa, with best chances with each favoring our southwest
CWA. Perhaps the strongest impulse is forecast Tuesday into
Wednesday by both the GFS and ECMWF, bringing our best chance for
widespread rain/thunder. Cooler temperatures are also on tap
during the period, with Sunday high close to 90 dropping back
toward 80 Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. There is an
increasing chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms late in
the TAF cycle so did add a PROB30 in KLNK and KOMA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 547 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The period of June 1-21 was the second warmest on record for
Omaha. Among the other years in the top 10 warmest for that
period, two of them went on to be among the top 10 warmest summers
(June through August), but ALL of them were in the warmest third
of climatology. Interestingly, none of them was among the top 10
warmest for July-August, though 5 of them were in the warmest
third of climatology and none was among the coldest third. So,
does a warm June foretell a warm summer? Probably at least one
that fits in the warm side of climatology, if not one of the
top warmest.

Of those years among the top 10 warmest for June 1-21, 5 were
among the driest third of climatology for the summer, and 2 were
top 10 driest, but 3 were in the wettest third, too.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dergan
LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...Kern
CLIMATE...Mayes




000
FXUS63 KLBF 231136
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had an elongated area of
high pressure extending from New Mexico east into the
southeastern states. Across the remainder of the CONUS an active
northern stream was present with a decent shortwave trough of low
pressure over northern Minnesota and a second trough over New
England. Further west, a closed low was present off the coast of
British Columbia. Across the high plains and intermountain west,
current wv imagery and IR satellite pics have a disturbance over
southern Colorado, northern New Mexico, extending east into the
far northern Texas panhandle, Oklahoma panhandle and southwestern
Kansas. Thunderstorms in association with this disturbance,
continue to drift to the north northeast over far southwestern
Kansas. These storms have decreased in coverage over the past
hour based on lightning data. At the surface, a frontal boundary
extended from northern Missouri, southwest to southwestern
Kansas, then north northwest across the front range of Colorado.
Skies were partly to mostly cloudy overnight as a veil of high
clouds has overspread western and north central Nebraska.
Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT ranged from 57 at North Platte to 62
at Imperial and O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is
precipitation chances late this afternoon and tonight. The
frontal boundary will remain anchored off to the west of the
forecast area this morning as high pressure drops southeast from
the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi valley. As this
feature tracks east of the Dakotas this afternoon, southerly
winds will begin to increase on the back side of the exiting high
which will force the frontal boundary east into the Nebraska
Panhandle and eastern Colorado. Low level moisture will increase
across eastern Colorado, western Kansas and the Nebraska
Panhandle INVOF of the front this afternoon. With surface heating
and the arrival of a shortwave trough this afternoon,
thunderstorms are expected to initiate off to the west of the
forecast area later this afternoon. Thunderstorms will track east
into the western and southwestern forecast area this evening,
weakening as they track to the east this evening. The latest NAM
and GFS solutions indicate a stable airmass east of a line from
Valentine to North Platte to Curtis. With this in mind, kept pops
for tonight generally west of this line as will dissipate as it
hits the stable airmass in the central and eastern forecast area.
As for the severe threat, it appears fairly limited ATTM as deep
layer shear is weak across the forecast area this evening.
However, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out across far
southwestern portions of the forecast area where SB CAPES top
2000 J/KG around 00z.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Warm front will lift across the area by Friday morning with a
warm day in store. Highs should be into the 90s with western
zones in the mid to upper 90s. Late in the day a trough will move
off the high terrain and could be a focus for thunderstorms. Warm
temps are aloft and could be enough to cap development so pops
remain low. A better chance for storms is with the cold front that
move across the area Friday night.

Cooler conditions on Saturday with highs in the 80s. Lingering
chance for storms along and post frontal due to steep lapse rate
in the far eastern zones. Severe parameters are weak over the CWA
with a better chance ahead of the front in eastern Nebraska were
the SPC has a marginal risk.

Sunday with sunny skies and high pressure, highs in the upper 80s
to around 90. Low level jet overnight might spark a storm or two
although confidence is low.

Next week the upper level ridge remains anchored over the desert
southwest. A few passing disturbances will bring a couple chances
for storms, although timing a little tricky this far out. Temps
also difficult as waves will bring clouds and could alter temps by
a couple of categories. The EC and the GFS are in agreement the
ridge although show some timing differences which will need to be
ironed out over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

For the KLBF terminal: High clouds are expected to persist today
with scattered CIGS at 25000 FT AGL. Clouds will increase this
evening with scattered to broken CIGS of 15000 FT AGL expected
after 03z Friday. There will be isolated thunderstorms across
southwestern Nebraska tonight. At this time the threat for
thunderstorms will be mainly south and southwest of the KLBF
terminal. For the KVTN terminal: Expect scattered CIGS around
25000 FT agl. Some broken CIGS of 25000 FT AGL are possible after
04Z Friday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Minor flooding is expected to continue along the North Platte
river at Lewellen into next week. Elevated river levels will
continue into next week along the North Platte river at North
Platte. River levels along the Platte river at Brady are expected
to fall below action stage on Friday.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Buttler
HYDROLOGY...Buttler




000
FXUS63 KLBF 231136
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had an elongated area of
high pressure extending from New Mexico east into the
southeastern states. Across the remainder of the CONUS an active
northern stream was present with a decent shortwave trough of low
pressure over northern Minnesota and a second trough over New
England. Further west, a closed low was present off the coast of
British Columbia. Across the high plains and intermountain west,
current wv imagery and IR satellite pics have a disturbance over
southern Colorado, northern New Mexico, extending east into the
far northern Texas panhandle, Oklahoma panhandle and southwestern
Kansas. Thunderstorms in association with this disturbance,
continue to drift to the north northeast over far southwestern
Kansas. These storms have decreased in coverage over the past
hour based on lightning data. At the surface, a frontal boundary
extended from northern Missouri, southwest to southwestern
Kansas, then north northwest across the front range of Colorado.
Skies were partly to mostly cloudy overnight as a veil of high
clouds has overspread western and north central Nebraska.
Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT ranged from 57 at North Platte to 62
at Imperial and O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is
precipitation chances late this afternoon and tonight. The
frontal boundary will remain anchored off to the west of the
forecast area this morning as high pressure drops southeast from
the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi valley. As this
feature tracks east of the Dakotas this afternoon, southerly
winds will begin to increase on the back side of the exiting high
which will force the frontal boundary east into the Nebraska
Panhandle and eastern Colorado. Low level moisture will increase
across eastern Colorado, western Kansas and the Nebraska
Panhandle INVOF of the front this afternoon. With surface heating
and the arrival of a shortwave trough this afternoon,
thunderstorms are expected to initiate off to the west of the
forecast area later this afternoon. Thunderstorms will track east
into the western and southwestern forecast area this evening,
weakening as they track to the east this evening. The latest NAM
and GFS solutions indicate a stable airmass east of a line from
Valentine to North Platte to Curtis. With this in mind, kept pops
for tonight generally west of this line as will dissipate as it
hits the stable airmass in the central and eastern forecast area.
As for the severe threat, it appears fairly limited ATTM as deep
layer shear is weak across the forecast area this evening.
However, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out across far
southwestern portions of the forecast area where SB CAPES top
2000 J/KG around 00z.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Warm front will lift across the area by Friday morning with a
warm day in store. Highs should be into the 90s with western
zones in the mid to upper 90s. Late in the day a trough will move
off the high terrain and could be a focus for thunderstorms. Warm
temps are aloft and could be enough to cap development so pops
remain low. A better chance for storms is with the cold front that
move across the area Friday night.

Cooler conditions on Saturday with highs in the 80s. Lingering
chance for storms along and post frontal due to steep lapse rate
in the far eastern zones. Severe parameters are weak over the CWA
with a better chance ahead of the front in eastern Nebraska were
the SPC has a marginal risk.

Sunday with sunny skies and high pressure, highs in the upper 80s
to around 90. Low level jet overnight might spark a storm or two
although confidence is low.

Next week the upper level ridge remains anchored over the desert
southwest. A few passing disturbances will bring a couple chances
for storms, although timing a little tricky this far out. Temps
also difficult as waves will bring clouds and could alter temps by
a couple of categories. The EC and the GFS are in agreement the
ridge although show some timing differences which will need to be
ironed out over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

For the KLBF terminal: High clouds are expected to persist today
with scattered CIGS at 25000 FT AGL. Clouds will increase this
evening with scattered to broken CIGS of 15000 FT AGL expected
after 03z Friday. There will be isolated thunderstorms across
southwestern Nebraska tonight. At this time the threat for
thunderstorms will be mainly south and southwest of the KLBF
terminal. For the KVTN terminal: Expect scattered CIGS around
25000 FT agl. Some broken CIGS of 25000 FT AGL are possible after
04Z Friday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Minor flooding is expected to continue along the North Platte
river at Lewellen into next week. Elevated river levels will
continue into next week along the North Platte river at North
Platte. River levels along the Platte river at Brady are expected
to fall below action stage on Friday.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Buttler
HYDROLOGY...Buttler




000
FXUS63 KOAX 231051
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
551 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Cooler and less humid weather today, then gradual increase in
temperatures, humidity and thunderstorm chances into Saturday, are
the primary concerns with this forecast.

Cold front had moved well south of eastern Nebraska and southwest
Iowa by this morning, stretching from south central Kansas into
northeast Missouri. Surface dew points in the 50s were spreading
south behind the front, and will cover all of our area for today.
Modest layer cooling was occurring as well, as high pressure was
ridging south from the Northern Plains into the Mid Missouri
Valley. That high is forecast to settle southeast into Minnesota
and Iowa today, maintaining a north or northeast surface wind
here. Cooling of lower atmosphere, scattered clouds, and light
northeast winds will lead to much cooler afternoon highs today
ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s across eastern Nebraska
and southwest Iowa.

Beyond today, overall weather pattern will promote increasing
temperatures, humidity and precipitation chances. Upper low is
forecast to swing onto the Pacific Northwest coast by Friday
morning, then progress east along the Canadian border to a southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba position by Saturday afternoon. Increasing
southwest mid level flow ahead of this system will induce lowering
surface pressures in the lee of the Rockies, which in turn will
promote moisture return in the Plains.

Precipitation chances will begin later tonight as isentropic upglide
commences over retreating southern Kansas frontal boundary. Focus
will initially be to our west this evening before shifting into
southeast Nebraska toward or after midnight. Continued theta-e
advection over boundary will bring precipitation chances across much
of the rest of eastern Nebraska and into southwest Iowa late tonight
and during the day Friday. Will likely see a respite in rain chances
later Friday afternoon and evening before strong warm advection
begins later Friday night ahead of cold front diving through central
South Dakota. While low level jet will focus better theta-e
convergence north of our area, northeast Nebraska could certainly
see elevated convection after 06Z Saturday.

Perhaps the best chance for thunderstorms, some potentially severe,
will be associated with cold front swinging through our area during
the day Saturday. Surging instability under cooling temperatures
aloft should lead to afternoon convection along and ahead of this
front, with GFS suggesting areas near and southeast of Interstate 80
are most at risk. Shear profiles are modest at best in our area,
favoring area farther north along front where forcing is
maximized. But instability and convergence along front should be
plenty for potential for at least isolated severe.

Temperatures will warm each day Friday and Saturday, ranging from
the 80s north to lower 90s south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Northwest flow aloft will develop in the central CONUS behind
exiting upper low moving north of the Great Lakes for much of the
longer term period. Saturday cold front should settle south and
west of eastern Nebraska, and will generally remain there through
the middle of next week given parallel steering flow. Impulses
riding through the northwest flow will bring occasional chances
for overrunning-type precipitation in eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa, with best chances with each favoring our southwest
CWA. Perhaps the strongest impulse is forecast Tuesday into
Wednesday by both the GFS and ECMWF, bringing our best chance for
widespread rain/thunder. Cooler temperatures are also on tap
during the period, with Sunday high close to 90 dropping back
toward 80 Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 12Z Friday)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle, with light and
variable winds and intermittent cirrus at around 25kft. Any
shower/thunderstorm activity moving into southeast NE is expected
to remain south of the TAF sites through 12Z Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 547 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The period of June 1-21 was the second warmest on record for
Omaha. Among the other years in the top 10 warmest for that
period, two of them went on to be among the top 10 warmest summers
(June through August), but ALL of them were in the warmest third
of climatology. Interestingly, none of them was among the top 10
warmest for July-August, though 5 of them were in the warmest
third of climatology and none was among the coldest third. So,
does a warm June foretell a warm summer? Probably at least one
that fits in the warm side of climatology, if not one of the
top warmest.

Of those years among the top 10 warmest for June 1-21, 5 were
among the driest third of climatology for the summer, and 2 were
top 10 driest, but 3 were in the wettest third, too.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dergan
LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...Mayes
CLIMATE...Mayes




000
FXUS63 KGID 231050
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
550 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Aloft: Subtropical high pres was parked over the Srn 1/3 of the
CONUS with the main belt of Westerlies over the Nrn 1/3. A low
amplitude ridge extended from WY/MT N into Canada. A closed low
was just off the Pac NW. This low has been dropping SSE and will
move onshore into WA/OR tonight. This will force some modest
amplification as wavelengths shorten. The ridge will move over the
Nrn Plains tonight.

Surface: The weak cool front that moved thru yesterday morning
was over Srn KS into the OK/TX panhandles. Canadian high pres has
dropped into the Dakotas. This high will drift SE into the upr
Midwest. Meanwhile...this front will remain quasi-stationary
along the KS/OK border most of today...but begin lifting back N
across KS as a warm front tonight. This as lee cyclogenesis occurs
tonight over MT. The front should still be just S of the fcst
area by dawn Fri.

Today: Overall should average p/cloudy due to cloud debris from
yesterdays tstms upstream over CO. One small cluster of tstms has
cont`d thru the night over SW KS. High-res models with explicit
convection apparently are keying on outflow and the remnant
convectively-generated vort max associated with this cluster to
initiate other storms as early as midday over S-cntrl KS. There is
a slight chance the Nrn fringe of this activity could brush parts
of Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell counties...but it`s doubtful. Most of
the tstm activity will remain over Srn KS...close to the front and
vort max.

Tonight: More storms will fire W and S of the fcst area late this
afternoon and eve...and that will send more cloud debris into the
fcst area. So expect p-m/cloudy. Can`t rule out a little tstm
activity...mainly over S-cntrl KS.

The low-lvl moisture plume associated with the front will
gradually begin to advect NW back into the fcst area this
afternoon and tonight...with WAA intensifying as a 30 kt low-lvl
jet develops. Increasing 850 mb dwpts may still not be enough as
fcst soundings show substantial CIN will remain. But if saturation
occurs around 700 mb after 3 AM tonight...that could result in a
few elevated tstms with 1000 J/kg of CAPE available.

Deep layer shear (1-6 km) will be weak (around 20 kts) this
afternoon and weaken further to 10-15 kts tonight. That will
result in very slow storm movement and poor storm organization and
life times...limiting the svr threat.

Given this environment...we`ll run with hail up to the size of
nickels and gusts up to 50 mph associated with any tstms that
develop over N-cntrl KS late this afternoon/eve. Elsewhere...no
strong or svr tstms expected.

Fcst confidence: average thru tonight. Believe we are probably
too high with the probability of precip (PoP) thru tonight...
especially over S-cntrl Neb. This is the main weakness in this
fcst. The 00Z EC ensemble probabilities for at least .10" QPF in
24 hrs are greatest along and S of I-70. 03Z SREF probs have the
same idea.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

There could be some leftover convection on Friday morning from a
nocturnal MCS as some models continue to indicate this. Although
we will be mostly in the warm sector as a warm front will have
returned and probably moved east of most of the CWA, we could re-
fire along the boundary, especially east/northeast by Friday
afternoon/evening.

By Saturday, there is good agreement that a trough with a closed
low will travel from the northern Rocky Mountains into the
northern plains near the Canadian border. This will drag a cold
front into the CWA by Saturday afternoon/evening and with decent
bulk shear by late June standards, could give us a shot at some
severe weather, and an enhanced shot at some rain.

This front may hit a snag and could hang out just south/southeast
of the CWA for a few days and may actually move back north a bit,
and give us more chances of rain, which we definitely need. Also,
we will be within northwest flow with several probable
perturbations and jet streak induced rain chances to give us a
shot at rain for most of the extended forecast.

Temperatures will continue to be generally above normal until
early next week, but not as much above normal as temperatures have
recently been, with highs generally in the 80s/90s, and possibly
cooling off to near or slightly below normal in the lower/mid 80s
for Tuesday through Thursday, with an especially good shot of rain
coming Tuesday night as the nearly stationary boundary will be
nearby, along with a nearby upper level jet streak and developing
low-level jet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Friday)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Significant Weather: None.

Today: VFR. Variable multi-layered SCT to occasionally BKN
altocu/cirrostratus above 15K ft. Winds gradually veer from NE-
SE 10 kts or less. Confidence: High

Tonight: Same as the daytime hrs. SE winds 10 kts or less.
Confidence: High

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Halblaub
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Halblaub




000
FXUS63 KGID 230938 CCA
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
438 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Aloft: Subtropical high pres was parked over the Srn 1/3 of the
CONUS with the main belt of Westerlies over the Nrn 1/3. A low
amplitude ridge extended from WY/MT N into Canada. A closed low
was just off the Pac NW. This low has been dropping SSE and will
move onshore into WA/OR tonight. This will force some modest
amplification as wavelengths shorten. The ridge will move over the
Nrn Plains tonight.

Surface: The weak cool front that moved thru yesterday morning
was over Srn KS into the OK/TX panhandles. Canadian high pres has
dropped into the Dakotas. This high will drift SE into the upr
Midwest. Meanwhile...this front will remain quasi-stationary
along the KS/OK border most of today...but begin lifting back N
across KS as a warm front tonight. This as lee cyclogenesis occurs
tonight over MT. The front should still be just S of the fcst
area by dawn Fri.


Today: Overall should average p/cloudy due to cloud debris from
yesterdays tstms upstream over CO. One small cluster of tstms has
cont`d thru the night over SW KS. High-res models with explicit
convection apparently are keying on outflow and the remnant
convectively-generated vort max associated with this cluster to
initiate other storms as early as midday over S-cntrl KS. There is
a slight chance the Nrn fringe of this activity could brush parts
of Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell counties...but it`s doubtful. Most of
the tstm activity will remain over Srn KS...close to the front and
vort max.

Tonight: More storms will fire W and S of the fcst area late this
afternoon and eve...and that will send more cloud debris into the
fcst area. So expect p-m/cloudy. Can`t rule out a little tstm
activity...mainly over S-cntrl KS.

The low-lvl moisture plume associated with the front will
gradually begin to advect NW back into the fcst area this
afternoon and tonight...with WAA intensifying as a 30 kt low-lvl
jet develops. Increasing 850 mb dwpts may still not be enough as
fcst soundings show substantial CIN will remain. But if saturation
occurs around 700 mb after 3 AM tonight...that could result in a
few elevated tstms with 1000 J/kg of CAPE available.

Deep layer shear (1-6 km) will be weak (around 20 kts) this
afternoon and weaken further to 10-15 kts tonight. That will
result in very slow storm movement and poor storm organization and
life times...limiting the svr threat.

Given this environment...we`ll run with hail up to the size of
nickels and gusts up to 50 mph associated with any tstms that
develop over N-cntrl KS late this afternoon/eve. Elsewhere...no
strong or svr tstms expected.

Fcst confidence: average thru tonight. Believe we are probably
too high with the probability of precip (PoP) thru tonight...
especially over S-cntrl Neb. This is the main weakness in this
fcst. The 00Z EC ensemble probabilities for at least .10" QPF in
24 hrs are greatest along and S of I-70. 03Z SREF probs have the
same idea.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

There could be some leftover convection on Friday morning from a
nocturnal MCS as some models continue to indicate this. Although
we will be mostly in the warm sector as a warm front will have
returned and probably moved east of most of the CWA, we could re-
fire along the boundary, especially east/northeast by Friday
afternoon/evening.

By Saturday, there is good agreement that a trough with a closed
low will travel from the northern Rocky Mountains into the
northern plains near the Canadian border. This will drag a cold
front into the CWA by Saturday afternoon/evening and with decent
bulk shear by late June standards, could give us a shot at some
severe weather, and an enhanced shot at some rain.

This front may hit a snag and could hang out just south/southeast
of the CWA for a few days and may actually move back north a bit,
and give us more chances of rain, which we definitely need. Also,
we will be within northwest flow with several probable
perturbations and jet streak induced rain chances to give us a
shot at rain for most of the extended forecast.

Temperatures will continue to be generally above normal until
early next week, but not as much above normal as temperatures have
recently been, with highs generally in the 80s/90s, and possibly
cooling off to near or slightly below normal in the lower/mid 80s
for Tuesday through Thursday, with an especially good shot of rain
coming Tuesday night as the nearly stationary boundary will be
nearby, along with a nearby upper level jet streak and developing
low-level jet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Significant Weather: None.

Rest of tonight: VFR with just some patchy cirrostratus around 20K
ft. Light N winds under 10 kts. Confidence: High

Thu: VFR. Variable multi-layered SCT to occasionally BKN altocu/
cirrostratus above 15K ft. Winds gradually veer from NE-SE 10 kts
or less. Confidence: High

Thu eve: Same as the daytime hrs. SE winds 10 kts or less.
Confidence: High

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Halblaub
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Halblaub




000
FXUS63 KGID 230907
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
407 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Aloft: Subtropical high pres was parked over the Srn 1/3 of the
CONUS with the main belt of Westerlies over the Nrn 1/3. A low
amplitude ridge extended from WY/MT N into Canada. A closed low
was just off the Pac NW. This low has been dropping SSE and will
move onshore into WA/OR tonight. This will force some modest
amplification as wavelengths shorten. The ridge will move over the
Nrn Plains tonight.

Surface: The weak cool front that moved thru yesterday morning
was over Srn KS into the OK/TX panhandles. Canadian high pres has
dropped into the Dakotas. This front will remain quasi-stationary
along the KS/OK border most of today...but begin lifting back N
across KS as a warm front tonight. The front should still be just
S of the fcst area by dawn Fri.

Fcst confidence is average. Believe we are probably too high with
the probability of precip (PoP) thru tonight...especially over S-
cntrl Neb. This is the main weakness in this fcst. The 00Z EC
ensemble probabilities for at least .10" QPF in 24 hrs are
greatest along and S of I-70. 03Z SREF probs have the same idea.

Today: Overall should average p/cloudy due to cloud debris from
yesterdays tstm upstream over CO. One small cluster of tstms has
cont`d thru the night over SW KS. High-res models with explicit
convection apparently are keying on outflow and the remnant
convectively-generated vort max associated with this cluster to
initiate other storms as early as midday over S-cntrl KS. There is
a slight chance the Nrn fringe of this activity could brush parts
of Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell county...but it`s doubtful. Most of the
tstm activity will remain over Srn KS...close to the front.

Tonight: More storms will fire W and S of the fcst area late this
afternoon and eve...and that will send more cloud debris into the
fcst area. So expect p-m/cloudy. Can`t rule out a little tstm
activity...mainly over S-cntrl KS.

The low-lvl moisture plume associated with the front will
gradually begin to advect NW back into the fcst area this
afternoon and tonight...with WAA intensifying as a 30 kt low-lvl
jet develops. Increasing 850 mb dwpts may still not be enough as
fcst soundings show substantial CIN will remain. But if saturation
occurs around 700 mb after 3 AM tonight...that could result in a
few elevated tstms with 1000 J/kg of CAPE available.

Deep layer shear (1-6 km) will be weak (around 20 kts) this
afternoon and weaken further to 10-15 kts tonight. That will
result in very slow storm movement and poor storm organization and
life times...limiting the svr threat.

Given this environment...we`ll run with hail up to the size of
nickels and gusts up to 50 mph associated with any tstms that
develop over N-cntrl KS late this afternoon/eve. Elsewhere...no
strong or svr tstms expected.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

There could be some leftover convection on Friday morning from a
nocturnal MCS as some models continue to indicate this. Although
we will be mostly in the warm sector as a warm front will have
returned and probably moved east of most of the CWA, we could re-
fire along the boundary, especially east/northeast by Friday
afternoon/evening.

By Saturday, there is good agreement that a trough with a closed
low will travel from the northern Rocky Mountains into the
northern plains near the Canadian border. This will drag a cold
front into the CWA by Saturday afternoon/evening and with decent
bulk shear by late June standards, could give us a shot at some
severe weather, and an enhanced shot at some rain.

This front may hit a snag and could hang out just south/southeast
of the CWA for a few days and may actually move back north a bit,
and give us more chances of rain, which we definitely need. Also,
we will be within northwest flow with several probable
perturbations and jet streak induced rain chances to give us a
shot at rain for most of the extended forecast.

Temperatures will continue to be generally above normal until
early next week, but not as much above normal as temperatures have
recently been, with highs generally in the 80s/90s, and possibly
cooling off to near or slightly below normal in the lower/mid 80s
for Tuesday through Thursday, with an especially good shot of rain
coming Tuesday night as the nearly stationary boundary will be
nearby, along with a nearby upper level jet streak and developing
low-level jet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Significant Weather: None.

Rest of tonight: VFR with just some patchy cirrostratus around 20K
ft. Light N winds under 10 kts. Confidence: High

Thu: VFR. Variable multi-layered SCT to occasionally BKN altocu/
cirrostratus above 15K ft. Winds gradually veer from NE-SE 10 kts
or less. Confidence: High

Thu eve: Same as the daytime hrs. SE winds 10 kts or less.
Confidence: High

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Halblaub
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Halblaub




000
FXUS63 KLBF 230859
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
359 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had an elongated area of
high pressure extending from New Mexico east into the
southeastern states. Across the remainder of the CONUS an active
northern stream was present with a decent shortwave trough of low
pressure over northern Minnesota and a second trough over New
England. Further west, a closed low was present off the coast of
British Columbia. Across the high plains and intermountain west,
current wv imagery and IR satellite pics have a disturbance over
southern Colorado, northern New Mexico, extending east into the
far northern Texas panhandle, Oklahoma panhandle and southwestern
Kansas. Thunderstorms in association with this disturbance,
continue to drift to the north northeast over far southwestern
Kansas. These storms have decreased in coverage over the past
hour based on lightning data. At the surface, a frontal boundary
extended from northern Missouri, southwest to southwestern
Kansas, then north northwest across the front range of Colorado.
Skies were partly to mostly cloudy overnight as a veil of high
clouds has overspread western and north central Nebraska.
Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT ranged from 57 at North Platte to 62
at Imperial and O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is
precipitation chances late this afternoon and tonight. The
frontal boundary will remain anchored off to the west of the
forecast area this morning as high pressure drops southeast from
the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi valley. As this
feature tracks east of the Dakotas this afternoon, southerly
winds will begin to increase on the back side of the exiting high
which will force the frontal boundary east into the Nebraska
Panhandle and eastern Colorado. Low level moisture will increase
across eastern Colorado, western Kansas and the Nebraska
Panhandle INVOF of the front this afternoon. With surface heating
and the arrival of a shortwave trough this afternoon,
thunderstorms are expected to initiate off to the west of the
forecast area later this afternoon. Thunderstorms will track east
into the western and southwestern forecast area this evening,
weakening as they track to the east this evening. The latest NAM
and GFS solutions indicate a stable airmass east of a line from
Valentine to North Platte to Curtis. With this in mind, kept pops
for tonight generally west of this line as will dissipate as it
hits the stable airmass in the central and eastern forecast area.
As for the severe threat, it appears fairly limited ATTM as deep
layer shear is weak across the forecast area this evening.
However, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out across far
southwestern portions of the forecast area where SB CAPES top
2000 J/KG around 00z.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Warm front will lift across the area by Friday morning with a
warm day in store. Highs should be into the 90s with western
zones in the mid to upper 90s. Late in the day a trough will move
off the high terrain and could be a focus for thunderstorms. Warm
temps are aloft and could be enough to cap development so pops
remain low. A better chance for storms is with the cold front that
move across the area Friday night.

Cooler conditions on Saturday with highs in the 80s. Lingering
chance for storms along and post frontal due to steep lapse rate
in the far eastern zones. Severe parameters are weak over the CWA
with a better chance ahead of the front in eastern Nebraska were
the SPC has a marginal risk.

Sunday with sunny skies and high pressure, highs in the upper 80s
to around 90. Low level jet overnight might spark a storm or two
although confidence is low.

Next week the upper level ridge remains anchored over the desert
southwest. A few passing disturbances will bring a couple chances
for storms, although timing a little tricky this far out. Temps
also difficult as waves will bring clouds and could alter temps by
a couple of categories. The EC and the GFS are in agreement the
ridge although show some timing differences which will need to be
ironed out over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Vfr conditions will continue at the klbf and kvtn terminals the
next 24 hrs. Mainly sct250 with light winds until 18z Thursday,
then winds increase to near 15014g21kt after 20z. Any
thunderstorms should dissipate before reaching the terminals
during the evening.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Minor flooding is expected to continue along the North Platte
river at Lewellen into next week. Elevated river levels will
continue into next week along the North Platte river at North
Platte. River levels along the Platte river at Brady are expected
to fall below action stage on Friday.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Roberg
HYDROLOGY...Buttler




000
FXUS63 KLBF 230859
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
359 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had an elongated area of
high pressure extending from New Mexico east into the
southeastern states. Across the remainder of the CONUS an active
northern stream was present with a decent shortwave trough of low
pressure over northern Minnesota and a second trough over New
England. Further west, a closed low was present off the coast of
British Columbia. Across the high plains and intermountain west,
current wv imagery and IR satellite pics have a disturbance over
southern Colorado, northern New Mexico, extending east into the
far northern Texas panhandle, Oklahoma panhandle and southwestern
Kansas. Thunderstorms in association with this disturbance,
continue to drift to the north northeast over far southwestern
Kansas. These storms have decreased in coverage over the past
hour based on lightning data. At the surface, a frontal boundary
extended from northern Missouri, southwest to southwestern
Kansas, then north northwest across the front range of Colorado.
Skies were partly to mostly cloudy overnight as a veil of high
clouds has overspread western and north central Nebraska.
Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT ranged from 57 at North Platte to 62
at Imperial and O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main forecast challenge over the next 24 hours is
precipitation chances late this afternoon and tonight. The
frontal boundary will remain anchored off to the west of the
forecast area this morning as high pressure drops southeast from
the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi valley. As this
feature tracks east of the Dakotas this afternoon, southerly
winds will begin to increase on the back side of the exiting high
which will force the frontal boundary east into the Nebraska
Panhandle and eastern Colorado. Low level moisture will increase
across eastern Colorado, western Kansas and the Nebraska
Panhandle INVOF of the front this afternoon. With surface heating
and the arrival of a shortwave trough this afternoon,
thunderstorms are expected to initiate off to the west of the
forecast area later this afternoon. Thunderstorms will track east
into the western and southwestern forecast area this evening,
weakening as they track to the east this evening. The latest NAM
and GFS solutions indicate a stable airmass east of a line from
Valentine to North Platte to Curtis. With this in mind, kept pops
for tonight generally west of this line as will dissipate as it
hits the stable airmass in the central and eastern forecast area.
As for the severe threat, it appears fairly limited ATTM as deep
layer shear is weak across the forecast area this evening.
However, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out across far
southwestern portions of the forecast area where SB CAPES top
2000 J/KG around 00z.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Warm front will lift across the area by Friday morning with a
warm day in store. Highs should be into the 90s with western
zones in the mid to upper 90s. Late in the day a trough will move
off the high terrain and could be a focus for thunderstorms. Warm
temps are aloft and could be enough to cap development so pops
remain low. A better chance for storms is with the cold front that
move across the area Friday night.

Cooler conditions on Saturday with highs in the 80s. Lingering
chance for storms along and post frontal due to steep lapse rate
in the far eastern zones. Severe parameters are weak over the CWA
with a better chance ahead of the front in eastern Nebraska were
the SPC has a marginal risk.

Sunday with sunny skies and high pressure, highs in the upper 80s
to around 90. Low level jet overnight might spark a storm or two
although confidence is low.

Next week the upper level ridge remains anchored over the desert
southwest. A few passing disturbances will bring a couple chances
for storms, although timing a little tricky this far out. Temps
also difficult as waves will bring clouds and could alter temps by
a couple of categories. The EC and the GFS are in agreement the
ridge although show some timing differences which will need to be
ironed out over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Vfr conditions will continue at the klbf and kvtn terminals the
next 24 hrs. Mainly sct250 with light winds until 18z Thursday,
then winds increase to near 15014g21kt after 20z. Any
thunderstorms should dissipate before reaching the terminals
during the evening.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Minor flooding is expected to continue along the North Platte
river at Lewellen into next week. Elevated river levels will
continue into next week along the North Platte river at North
Platte. River levels along the Platte river at Brady are expected
to fall below action stage on Friday.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Roberg
HYDROLOGY...Buttler




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230841
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
341 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Cooler and less humid weather today, then gradual increase in
temperatures, humidity and thunderstorm chances into Saturday, are
the primary concerns with this forecast.

Cold front had moved well south of eastern Nebraska and southwest
Iowa by this morning, stretching from south central Kansas into
northeast Missouri. Surface dew points in the 50s were spreading
south behind the front, and will cover all of our area for today.
Modest layer cooling was occurring as well, as high pressure was
ridging south from the Northern Plains into the Mid Missouri
Valley. That high is forecast to settle southeast into Minnesota
and Iowa today, maintaining a north or northeast surface wind
here. Cooling of lower atmosphere, scattered clouds, and light
northeast winds will lead to much cooler afternoon highs today
ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s across eastern Nebraska
and southwest Iowa.

Beyond today, overall weather pattern will promote increasing
temperatures, humidity and precipitation chances. Upper low is
forecast to swing onto the Pacific Northwest coast by Friday
morning, then progress east along the Canadian border to a southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba position by Saturday afternoon. Increasing
southwest mid level flow ahead of this system will induce lowering
surface pressures in the lee of the Rockies, which in turn will
promote moisture return in the Plains.

Precipitation chances will begin later tonight as isentropic upglide
commences over retreating southern Kansas frontal boundary. Focus
will initially be to our west this evening before shifting into
southeast Nebraska toward or after midnight. Continued theta-e
advection over boundary will bring precipitation chances across much
of the rest of eastern Nebraska and into southwest Iowa late tonight
and during the day Friday. Will likely see a respite in rain chances
later Friday afternoon and evening before strong warm advection
begins later Friday night ahead of cold front diving through central
South Dakota. While low level jet will focus better theta-e
convergence north of our area, northeast Nebraska could certainly
see elevated convection after 06Z Saturday.

Perhaps the best chance for thunderstorms, some potentially severe,
will be associated with cold front swinging through our area during
the day Saturday. Surging instability under cooling temperatures
aloft should lead to afternoon convection along and ahead of this
front, with GFS suggesting areas near and southeast of Interstate 80
are most at risk. Shear profiles are modest at best in our area,
favoring area farther north along front where forcing is
maximized. But instability and convergence along front should be
plenty for potential for at least isolated severe.

Temperatures will warm each day Friday and Saturday, ranging from
the 80s north to lower 90s south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Northwest flow aloft will develop in the central CONUS behind
exiting upper low moving north of the Great Lakes for much of the
longer term period. Saturday cold front should settle south and
west of eastern Nebraska, and will generally remain there through
the middle of next week given parallel steering flow. Impulses
riding through the northwest flow will bring occasional chances
for overrunning-type precipitation in eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa, with best chances with each favoring our southwest
CWA. Perhaps the strongest impulse is forecast Tuesday into
Wednesday by both the GFS and ECMWF, bringing our best chance for
widespread rain/thunder. Cooler temperatures are also on tap
during the period, with Sunday high close to 90 dropping back
toward 80 Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

VFR conditions through the TAF period.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dergan
LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...Zapotocny




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230841
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
341 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Cooler and less humid weather today, then gradual increase in
temperatures, humidity and thunderstorm chances into Saturday, are
the primary concerns with this forecast.

Cold front had moved well south of eastern Nebraska and southwest
Iowa by this morning, stretching from south central Kansas into
northeast Missouri. Surface dew points in the 50s were spreading
south behind the front, and will cover all of our area for today.
Modest layer cooling was occurring as well, as high pressure was
ridging south from the Northern Plains into the Mid Missouri
Valley. That high is forecast to settle southeast into Minnesota
and Iowa today, maintaining a north or northeast surface wind
here. Cooling of lower atmosphere, scattered clouds, and light
northeast winds will lead to much cooler afternoon highs today
ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s across eastern Nebraska
and southwest Iowa.

Beyond today, overall weather pattern will promote increasing
temperatures, humidity and precipitation chances. Upper low is
forecast to swing onto the Pacific Northwest coast by Friday
morning, then progress east along the Canadian border to a southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba position by Saturday afternoon. Increasing
southwest mid level flow ahead of this system will induce lowering
surface pressures in the lee of the Rockies, which in turn will
promote moisture return in the Plains.

Precipitation chances will begin later tonight as isentropic upglide
commences over retreating southern Kansas frontal boundary. Focus
will initially be to our west this evening before shifting into
southeast Nebraska toward or after midnight. Continued theta-e
advection over boundary will bring precipitation chances across much
of the rest of eastern Nebraska and into southwest Iowa late tonight
and during the day Friday. Will likely see a respite in rain chances
later Friday afternoon and evening before strong warm advection
begins later Friday night ahead of cold front diving through central
South Dakota. While low level jet will focus better theta-e
convergence north of our area, northeast Nebraska could certainly
see elevated convection after 06Z Saturday.

Perhaps the best chance for thunderstorms, some potentially severe,
will be associated with cold front swinging through our area during
the day Saturday. Surging instability under cooling temperatures
aloft should lead to afternoon convection along and ahead of this
front, with GFS suggesting areas near and southeast of Interstate 80
are most at risk. Shear profiles are modest at best in our area,
favoring area farther north along front where forcing is
maximized. But instability and convergence along front should be
plenty for potential for at least isolated severe.

Temperatures will warm each day Friday and Saturday, ranging from
the 80s north to lower 90s south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Northwest flow aloft will develop in the central CONUS behind
exiting upper low moving north of the Great Lakes for much of the
longer term period. Saturday cold front should settle south and
west of eastern Nebraska, and will generally remain there through
the middle of next week given parallel steering flow. Impulses
riding through the northwest flow will bring occasional chances
for overrunning-type precipitation in eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa, with best chances with each favoring our southwest
CWA. Perhaps the strongest impulse is forecast Tuesday into
Wednesday by both the GFS and ECMWF, bringing our best chance for
widespread rain/thunder. Cooler temperatures are also on tap
during the period, with Sunday high close to 90 dropping back
toward 80 Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

VFR conditions through the TAF period.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dergan
LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...Zapotocny




000
FXUS63 KGID 230543
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1243 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday daytime)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Been a dry but windy afternoon across the region today. In the upper
levels, generally zonal flow remains in place, with weak, broad
ridging affecting much of the southern CONUS. To the north, near the
ND/MN/Canadian border, satellite imagery shows a disturbance
continuing to push east. This system was the driver behind the
surface frontal boundary which has been pushing south today,
currently sits just south of the CWA. Behind the front, north-
northwesterly winds have been gusty, sustained speeds have been
anywhere from 15 to 25 MPH, while gusts of 25 to 30 MPH have been
common. Radar has been showing some returns this afternoon,
associated with a mid level boundary, but with drier air in the
lower levels, doubting that even sprinkles are making it to the
ground. And with good capping in place, hasn`t been much growth to
those returns. While not a notable air mass change, the front along
with clouds streaming in have kept temps in the 80s for much of the
area so far this afternoon. 3 pm obs ranging from 81 at HDE and 83
at ODX/LXN, to 99 at Beloit.

Kept the forecast through tonight dry, though across far southern
portions of the CWA, confidence isn`t as high. Will be dependent on
how much further south the main surface boundary can sag, as it will
be losing its push as that northern CONUS upper level disturbance
moves further east. Main focus will be along that surface/lower
level front, aided by an increasing LLJ (although it`s not overly
strong).

The dry forecast continues into tomorrow, but will depend
on whether anything actually develops/moves into our south, at least
during the morning. Further into the day tomorrow, and more into the
evening/overnight hours, precipitation chances do increase. Models
are in pretty good agreement showing an upper level shortwave
disturbance emerging onto the Central Plains. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the High Plains with the disturbance, and
across central KS along a surface warm front. Some question with
exactly how much will actually be affecting our CWA during the day,
could end up being not much, will depend on where that warm front
boundary settles tonight. A stronger LLJ nosing in from the south
will aid lift as the complex moves east, models vary with the
northward extent of activity. Best chances look to be near/south of
the NE/KS border. Potential is there a few storms could be on the
strong/marginally severe side, MLCAPE values possibly in the 1000-
1500 j/kg range, but overall shear is on the weaker side. Outside of
the thunderstorm chances, winds are expected to be east-
southeasterly across the CWA, with afternoon high temperatures in
the mid 80s to near 90.

Looking to Friday, slight chance PoPs remain in the forecast, but
confidence is not high, and debated pulling them completely. Could
have some lingering activity around from the slowly eastward
departing disturbance, but another weak shortwave is shown by models
to start working in from the west. With the differences still
lingering between models with timing and areal coverage (or lack
of), difficult to rule out any particular area. Those low chances
then continue into the evening/overnight hours, the overall forcing
is definitely on the weaker side, just can`t completely rule out at
least a few showers/storms around. Expecting a bit of a bump up in
high temperatures into the lower 90s. Winds have the potential to be
on the breezy side, switching back to the south ahead of low
pressure over the High Plains. Speeds of 15 to 20 MPH possible.

Late Friday night and through the day on Saturday, models are in
good agreement showing a stronger upper level low pressure system
working its way east long the MT/ND/Canadian border. Accompanying
this system will be another surface cold front, pushing south
through the Central Plains through the daytime hours. At this time,
model timing of the frontal boundary isn`t bad, orientated SW-NE and
roughly halfway through the CWA by midday and over the southeastern
corner by evening. This front will be the focus for thunderstorm
development, esp during the afternoon hours, and did bump up PoPs.
Still some time to iron out details, but potential for some
strong/severe thunderstorms will be there. Confidence is on the
lower side regarding temps with a daytime frontal passage, but
current forecast highs ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

This section focuses on the "long term" period (Days 4-7) for
which the forecast is primarily derived from a default
multi-model blend, with only limited forecaster modification.

The two-sentence summary:
This looks to be a fairly active time frame with several rain
chances and likely at least a few severe weather chances.
Temperature-wise, still averaging at least slightly above normal
as a whole (but not as hot as recently), and maybe even trending
toward slightly below-normal readings by the middle of next week
(maybe).

Precipitation/temperature overview of this 4-day stretch:
Again, it`s looking relatively "cooler" (compared to several
recent days) and also rather active/wetter, as literally each one
of these 8 day/night periods features at least small precip
chances (PoPs) within some/all of the CWA. From a purely rainfall
perspective, this is good news especially for much of the
central/southeast CWA that has been VERY dry so far this month
(places such as the Tri Cities, Superior, Beloit etc.). From a
very, very general standpoint, it would be surprising if most of
the CWA didn`t receive at least 1 inch of rain during this time
frame, but of course it`s far too soon to have high confidence in
timing/placement. As a result, PoPS have been held down no higher
than 20-40 percent for the time being. Very preliminarily, some of
the best/highest rain chances look to focus on Saturday
evening/night, Monday night and Tuesday night. Temperature-wise,
we are certainly not talking a major cool-down here, but compared
to lately, things seem to be trending in the right direction for
those growing weary of this considerably hotter-than-normal month
so far. More specifically, high temps in Nebraska zones are
expected to average more in the 80s (versus the 90s), with KS
zones averaging more in the upper 80s/low 90s (versus mid-90s or
higher). Don`t want to get hopes up too much, but very
preliminarily, the forecast for Day 7 (next Wednesday) currently
features (gasp!) slightly below normal highs in the low-mid 80s.

A few comments on severe thunderstorm potential:
Not too surprisingly given all the rain chances in the forecast,
there will probably be at least a few Marginal-to-Slight Risk type
of severe weather setups lurking in this time frame as things get
closer. Although it is clearly too early to get caught up in the
details, from a purely instability (CAPE)/deep-layer wind shear
combo, there could maybe even be a few fairly potent setups by
late-June standards. Unlike some recent days where convection was
held at bay by weak forcing and/or very warm mid level
temperatures under a dominant upper level ridge, most of this time
frame looks to feature seasonably modest-to possibly strong mid-
upper level flow from the west-northwest, as the CWA lies to the
northeast of the primary mid-upper ridge axis generally centered
over the Four Corners Region. Although it is too soon/there is too
much uncertainty to start pinpointing certain days/nights in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook product (HWOGID), to start with, we may
have to keep an eye on Saturday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Significant Weather: None.

Rest of tonight: VFR with just some patchy cirrostratus around 20K
ft. Light N winds under 10 kts. Confidence: High

Thu: VFR. Variable multi-layered SCT to occasionally BKN altocu/
cirrostratus above 15K ft. Winds gradually veer from NE-SE 10 kts
or less. Confidence: High

Thu eve: Same as the daytime hrs. SE winds 10 kts or less.
Confidence: High

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Halblaub




000
FXUS63 KLBF 230451
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1151 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

The river level this evening has dropped below flood stage on the
North Platte River at North Platte and is currently near 5.9
feet. Therefore the Flood Warning was cancelled. A Flood Warning
still continues on the North Platte River at Lewellen until
further notice.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Fairly quiet conditions across central Nebraska over the next couple
days. A large upper level ridge remains in place allowing surface
high pressure to expand across the region. This will keep us dry
through most of Thursday. A wave coming off the front ranges will
try to bring in some precipitation late Thursday. Current thinking,
though, is precipitation won`t arrive until Thursday evening. Only
included a slight chance of precipitation for the southwest counties
(Chase, Perkins, and Hayes) for late Thursday afternoon. For
temperatures...lows drop into the upper 50s for most locations, the
exception being the southern counties where lows only drop down into
the low 60s. Thursday highs rise into the upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Thursday night through Saturday...Storms are expected to form on the
Colorado front range around 21z Thursday. This activity is expected
to brush Southwest Nebraska Thursday evening and dissipate or move
east by 06z Thursday Night. Thereafter the forecast for
thunderstorms becomes complicated with no real model consensus shown
other than storm coverage is generally expected to be isolated.

It is believed the Colorado front range and Laramie ranges will be
the focus for thunderstorm development around 21z Friday. The models
continue to carry storms off the Laramie range and into the Nebraska
Panhandle. The NAM shows the storms dissipating mostly west of the
forecast area. This GFS shows a storm moving off the Cheyenne divide
and dissipating across Southwestern Nebraska Friday evening while
the ECM blows storms up Friday afternoon across Western Nebraska. So
there is little model consensus as to what will happen exactly. The
basic forecast limits thunderstorm development to isolated coverage
due to a strengthening cap shown by the models. This has been the
case over the past few days ever since the record heat wave
developed across the Southwestern U.S. last weekend.

A cold front will move through Western Nebraska Friday night and
North Central Nebraska. A strengthening thermal ridge at h700mb
ahead of this cold front is expected to limit storm development
Friday night. The models suggest thunderstorms could form
Saturday...generally across North Central Nebraska or east of the
forecast area across Eastern Nebraska.

The temperature forecast Friday follows a blend of guidance plus
bias correction for highs in the 90s. 80s are in place Saturday
using model blended data plus bias correction.

Saturday night through Wednesday...the GFS...its ensemble run and
the ECM continue to advertise...upslope sfc winds...zonal to
northwest flow aloft and showers and thunderstorms Monday night
through at least Tuesday. Rain chances are in place Wednesday also
POPs are limited to 40 percent for this forecast.

High pressure building into the region Saturday will become the
basis for return moisture which should be directed westward and
northwestward through the forecast area. The latest model guidance
indicates highs around 80 Tuesday and Wednesday which is consistent
with cool high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest.

Temperatures at 700mb remain 10C to 15C which could certainly limit
storm coverage. Nonetheless...the models suggest the best chance of
rain will generally be over Wrn Missouri...Kansas and
reaching into Wrn Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Vfr conditions will continue at the klbf and kvtn terminals the
next 24 hrs. Mainly sct250 with light winds until 18z Thursday,
then winds increase to near 15014g21kt after 20z. Any
thunderstorms should dissipate before reaching the terminals
during the evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

The river level this evening has dropped below flood stage on the
North Platte River at North Platte and is currently near 5.9
feet. Therefore the Flood Warning was cancelled. A Flood Warning
still continues for minor flooding on the North Platte River at
Lewellen until further notice. River levels along the South PLatte
river have fallen below action stage. Further downstream on the
mainstem Platte River, the stage fell below action stage this
evening at Maxwell and is falling to near action stage at Brady.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Roberg
HYDROLOGY...Roberg




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230449
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1149 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Cooler...drier air has allowed HIs to fall to 100 or less in the
heat advisory area...thus have cancelled the heat advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Cold front at 20z had nearly pushed through the entire forecast
area, but still needed to clear Falls City, which had reached 100.
A couple of sprinkles have tried to develop along the front, but
the cap has likely remained strong with mid level temps in the mid
to upper teens. Heat advisory is in effect for extreme southeast
NE until 9 pm. May be able to cancel this early, but for now, will
leave in place.

The cold front will continue to push southward tonight with high
pressure and slightly cooler and drier air moving across the area
for Thursday, along with dry weather continuing. Highs Thursday in
the mid 80s north to around 90 south, with dewpoints in the lower
60s.

The models still hint at a weak, subtle wave moving off the high
plains under the ridge Thursday night into Friday, and will
maintain 20-30 percent pops during this time. Temps Friday should
warm back into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Meanwhile, a stronger closed trough will be moving through the
northern Rockies Friday night into Saturday, which will push a
cold front into the region by Saturday evening. Ahead of the
front, only very weak forcing will exist across the region with
subtle height falls aloft. Thus couldn`t rule out a stray shower
or thunderstorm given warm and unstable conditions exist across
the Plains. A much better chance of storms comes later Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night as the cold front moves into the
area. Probably also a severe threat with the front as well given
timing and dynamics associated with the system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Thunderstorm chances ongoing at the beginning of the period with
front moving through. Front may be slow to clear the area though
giving a lingering chance of storms across the southern half of
the forecast area into Sunday. Front may be along the NE/KS
border region Sunday night before pushing a little further south
by Monday. By then, the region remains in a west northwest flow
aloft. Monday night through Wednesday could see a series of upper
level disturbances move out of the northern rockies leading to a
more active pattern for storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

VFR conditions through the TAF period.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Zapotocny
SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Zapotocny




000
FXUS63 KLBF 230351
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1051 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

The river level this evening has dropped below flood stage on the
North Platte River at North Platte and is currently near 5.9
feet. Therefore the Flood Warning was cancelled. A Flood Warning
still continues on the North Platte River at Lewellen until
further notice.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Fairly quiet conditions across central Nebraska over the next couple
days. A large upper level ridge remains in place allowing surface
high pressure to expand across the region. This will keep us dry
through most of Thursday. A wave coming off the front ranges will
try to bring in some precipitation late Thursday. Current thinking,
though, is precipitation won`t arrive until Thursday evening. Only
included a slight chance of precipitation for the southwest counties
(Chase, Perkins, and Hayes) for late Thursday afternoon. For
temperatures...lows drop into the upper 50s for most locations, the
exception being the southern counties where lows only drop down into
the low 60s. Thursday highs rise into the upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Thursday night through Saturday...Storms are expected to form on the
Colorado front range around 21z Thursday. This activity is expected
to brush Southwest Nebraska Thursday evening and dissipate or move
east by 06z Thursday Night. Thereafter the forecast for
thunderstorms becomes complicated with no real model consensus shown
other than storm coverage is generally expected to be isolated.

It is believed the Colorado front range and Laramie ranges will be
the focus for thunderstorm development around 21z Friday. The models
continue to carry storms off the Laramie range and into the Nebraska
Panhandle. The NAM shows the storms dissipating mostly west of the
forecast area. This GFS shows a storm moving off the Cheyenne divide
and dissipating across Southwestern Nebraska Friday evening while
the ECM blows storms up Friday afternoon across Western Nebraska. So
there is little model consensus as to what will happen exactly. The
basic forecast limits thunderstorm development to isolated coverage
due to a strengthening cap shown by the models. This has been the
case over the past few days ever since the record heat wave
developed across the Southwestern U.S. last weekend.

A cold front will move through Western Nebraska Friday night and
North Central Nebraska. A strengthening thermal ridge at h700mb
ahead of this cold front is expected to limit storm development
Friday night. The models suggest thunderstorms could form
Saturday...generally across North Central Nebraska or east of the
forecast area across Eastern Nebraska.

The temperature forecast Friday follows a blend of guidance plus
bias correction for highs in the 90s. 80s are in place Saturday
using model blended data plus bias correction.

Saturday night through Wednesday...the GFS...its ensemble run and
the ECM continue to advertise...upslope sfc winds...zonal to
northwest flow aloft and showers and thunderstorms Monday night
through at least Tuesday. Rain chances are in place Wednesday also
POPs are limited to 40 percent for this forecast.

High pressure building into the region Saturday will become the
basis for return moisture which should be directed westward and
northwestward through the forecast area. The latest model guidance
indicates highs around 80 Tuesday and Wednesday which is consistent
with cool high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest.

Temperatures at 700mb remain 10C to 15C which could certainly limit
storm coverage. Nonetheless...the models suggest the best chance of
rain will generally be over Wrn Missouri...Kansas and
reaching into Wrn Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Vfr conditions will continue at the klbf and kvtn terminals the
next 24 hrs. Mainly sct250 with light winds until 18z Thursday,
then winds increase to near 15014g21kt after 20z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

The river level this evening has dropped below flood stage on the
North Platte River at North Platte and is currently near 5.9
feet. Therefore the Flood Warning was cancelled. A Flood Warning
still continues for minor flooding on the North Platte River at
Lewellen until further notice. River levels along the South PLatte
river have fallen below action stage. Further downstream on the
mainstem Platte River, the stage fell below action stage this
evening at Maxwell and is falling to near action stage at Brady.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Roberg
HYDROLOGY...Roberg




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities