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000
FXUS63 KLBF 011137
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TODAY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST DURING
PEAK HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TO LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LATER TODAY AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MORE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED WITH BETTER
WIND THREAT THAN RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY...AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 70S. THEN TONIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND RANGING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DOWN RIGHT HOT...WITH HIGHS AT
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS AT 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE. MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WARM UP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
STRONG PV ANOMALY PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC AIR
INVADE THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...AND ONLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS
AT KVTN EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THIS HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE
BASED ON SATELLITE AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. HAVE LEFT MVFR
CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR CONSISTENCY BUT FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CIGS AND BR IS WANING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH FROM
LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CHANCES DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION...SO NO MENTION OF -TSRA IN THE KLBF TAF FOR NOW.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KECK
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KLBF 011137
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TODAY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST DURING
PEAK HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TO LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LATER TODAY AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MORE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED WITH BETTER
WIND THREAT THAN RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY...AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 70S. THEN TONIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND RANGING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DOWN RIGHT HOT...WITH HIGHS AT
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS AT 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE. MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WARM UP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
STRONG PV ANOMALY PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC AIR
INVADE THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...AND ONLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS
AT KVTN EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THIS HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE
BASED ON SATELLITE AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. HAVE LEFT MVFR
CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR CONSISTENCY BUT FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CIGS AND BR IS WANING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH FROM
LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CHANCES DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION...SO NO MENTION OF -TSRA IN THE KLBF TAF FOR NOW.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KECK
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KLBF 011137
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TODAY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST DURING
PEAK HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TO LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LATER TODAY AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MORE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED WITH BETTER
WIND THREAT THAN RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY...AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 70S. THEN TONIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND RANGING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DOWN RIGHT HOT...WITH HIGHS AT
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS AT 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE. MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WARM UP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
STRONG PV ANOMALY PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC AIR
INVADE THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...AND ONLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS
AT KVTN EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THIS HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE
BASED ON SATELLITE AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. HAVE LEFT MVFR
CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR CONSISTENCY BUT FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CIGS AND BR IS WANING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH FROM
LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CHANCES DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION...SO NO MENTION OF -TSRA IN THE KLBF TAF FOR NOW.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KECK
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KLBF 011137
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TODAY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST DURING
PEAK HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TO LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LATER TODAY AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MORE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED WITH BETTER
WIND THREAT THAN RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY...AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 70S. THEN TONIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND RANGING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DOWN RIGHT HOT...WITH HIGHS AT
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS AT 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE. MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WARM UP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
STRONG PV ANOMALY PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC AIR
INVADE THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...AND ONLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS
AT KVTN EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THIS HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE
BASED ON SATELLITE AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. HAVE LEFT MVFR
CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR CONSISTENCY BUT FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CIGS AND BR IS WANING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH FROM
LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CHANCES DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION...SO NO MENTION OF -TSRA IN THE KLBF TAF FOR NOW.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KECK
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KOAX 011127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO ALONG A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT.
FORCING WAS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVG ALOFT ASSOC WITH RRQ OF UPPER
JET.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT VERY BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING THE NRN TIER
STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER THIS WEEK WITH A POS TILT LONGWAVE
TROF BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
FOUND MAINLY E/SE OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING COMBINATION OF PASSING VORT ENERGY AND
BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NEB. SUSPECT AREAL COVERAGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THUS WILL CONFINE
OVERNIGHT POPS TO THE NRN CWA. SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THEN
TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE ALONG 310-315K SFC
AND CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE FOCUSED.

WED/WED NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. GULF MOIST ADV INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS TIME WITH
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT GETTING PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COND PRES DEF WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO
OVERCOME TO ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT TO SATURATE OUT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THOSE PDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV UP TO THIS POINT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PHASE WITH MID LYR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH BOTH
GFS/ECM SHOWING GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT TO HELP INDUCE PCPN...HAVE
DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT POPS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SFC
HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND DISPLACE
THE FRONTAL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT
GFS/ECM QPF WITHIN CWA IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY FCST SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MESSY AVIATION FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED PAST KLNK AND WINDS
ARE AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THERE...SO LOW CEILINGS SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THERE. FRONT IS NEAR KOMA AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE VCNTY FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE A LITTLE. SOME LIGHT COULD OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO MID MORNING BUT DID NOT MENTION AT TAF
SITES WITH 12Z ISSUANCE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE KOFK TAF LATER
TODAY AND MAY NEED TO ADD -TSRA AFTER 22Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 011127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO ALONG A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT.
FORCING WAS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVG ALOFT ASSOC WITH RRQ OF UPPER
JET.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT VERY BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING THE NRN TIER
STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER THIS WEEK WITH A POS TILT LONGWAVE
TROF BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
FOUND MAINLY E/SE OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING COMBINATION OF PASSING VORT ENERGY AND
BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NEB. SUSPECT AREAL COVERAGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THUS WILL CONFINE
OVERNIGHT POPS TO THE NRN CWA. SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THEN
TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE ALONG 310-315K SFC
AND CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE FOCUSED.

WED/WED NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. GULF MOIST ADV INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS TIME WITH
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT GETTING PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COND PRES DEF WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO
OVERCOME TO ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT TO SATURATE OUT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THOSE PDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV UP TO THIS POINT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PHASE WITH MID LYR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH BOTH
GFS/ECM SHOWING GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT TO HELP INDUCE PCPN...HAVE
DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT POPS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SFC
HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND DISPLACE
THE FRONTAL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT
GFS/ECM QPF WITHIN CWA IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY FCST SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MESSY AVIATION FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED PAST KLNK AND WINDS
ARE AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THERE...SO LOW CEILINGS SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THERE. FRONT IS NEAR KOMA AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE VCNTY FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE A LITTLE. SOME LIGHT COULD OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO MID MORNING BUT DID NOT MENTION AT TAF
SITES WITH 12Z ISSUANCE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE KOFK TAF LATER
TODAY AND MAY NEED TO ADD -TSRA AFTER 22Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 011127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO ALONG A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT.
FORCING WAS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVG ALOFT ASSOC WITH RRQ OF UPPER
JET.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT VERY BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING THE NRN TIER
STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER THIS WEEK WITH A POS TILT LONGWAVE
TROF BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
FOUND MAINLY E/SE OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING COMBINATION OF PASSING VORT ENERGY AND
BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NEB. SUSPECT AREAL COVERAGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THUS WILL CONFINE
OVERNIGHT POPS TO THE NRN CWA. SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THEN
TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE ALONG 310-315K SFC
AND CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE FOCUSED.

WED/WED NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. GULF MOIST ADV INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS TIME WITH
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT GETTING PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COND PRES DEF WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO
OVERCOME TO ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT TO SATURATE OUT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THOSE PDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV UP TO THIS POINT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PHASE WITH MID LYR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH BOTH
GFS/ECM SHOWING GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT TO HELP INDUCE PCPN...HAVE
DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT POPS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SFC
HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND DISPLACE
THE FRONTAL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT
GFS/ECM QPF WITHIN CWA IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY FCST SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MESSY AVIATION FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED PAST KLNK AND WINDS
ARE AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THERE...SO LOW CEILINGS SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THERE. FRONT IS NEAR KOMA AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE VCNTY FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE A LITTLE. SOME LIGHT COULD OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO MID MORNING BUT DID NOT MENTION AT TAF
SITES WITH 12Z ISSUANCE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE KOFK TAF LATER
TODAY AND MAY NEED TO ADD -TSRA AFTER 22Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 011127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO ALONG A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT.
FORCING WAS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVG ALOFT ASSOC WITH RRQ OF UPPER
JET.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT VERY BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING THE NRN TIER
STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER THIS WEEK WITH A POS TILT LONGWAVE
TROF BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
FOUND MAINLY E/SE OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING COMBINATION OF PASSING VORT ENERGY AND
BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NEB. SUSPECT AREAL COVERAGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THUS WILL CONFINE
OVERNIGHT POPS TO THE NRN CWA. SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THEN
TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE ALONG 310-315K SFC
AND CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE FOCUSED.

WED/WED NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. GULF MOIST ADV INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS TIME WITH
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT GETTING PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COND PRES DEF WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO
OVERCOME TO ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT TO SATURATE OUT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THOSE PDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV UP TO THIS POINT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PHASE WITH MID LYR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH BOTH
GFS/ECM SHOWING GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT TO HELP INDUCE PCPN...HAVE
DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT POPS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SFC
HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND DISPLACE
THE FRONTAL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT
GFS/ECM QPF WITHIN CWA IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY FCST SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MESSY AVIATION FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED PAST KLNK AND WINDS
ARE AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THERE...SO LOW CEILINGS SHOULD STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THERE. FRONT IS NEAR KOMA AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE VCNTY FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE A LITTLE. SOME LIGHT COULD OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO MID MORNING BUT DID NOT MENTION AT TAF
SITES WITH 12Z ISSUANCE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE KOFK TAF LATER
TODAY AND MAY NEED TO ADD -TSRA AFTER 22Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGID 011051
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW STRONG THESE STORM MAY BE.

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTER WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC...WITH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN FLOW. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
APPROACH 100 KTS. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME QPF
EITHER/BOTH AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND
EAST TO KEEP US FROM GETTING IN ON ANY REDEVELOPMENT.

WE WILL BE IN A COOLER AND DRIER REGIME BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A COUPLE OF
MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS COMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH THE FIRST
PERTURBATION IN THE AFTERNOON PERHAPS DROPPING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-CITIES. THEN LATE
EVENING ANOTHER PERTURBATION FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH COULD CLIP ARE
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SHEAR...HOWEVER WITH 40 TO 50 KTS LIKELY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED...BUT HARDLY NON-EXISTENT. 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR POSSIBLY
A LITTLE MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS COMBINATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENTERTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST A STRONG STORM OR TWO IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS FARTHER NORTH IN THE EVENING. WOULD NOT BE
ALL THAT SURPRISING TO GET A 50 MPH WIND GUST AND/OR NICKEL SIZE
HAIL FROM A STORM. THIS IS ALL ASSUMING THAT THE CAP COULD BE
BROKEN...WHICH LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY.

USED BCCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY...WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS SEEMS TO WORK WELL THE FOLLOWING
DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...PERHAPS NUDGING DOWN SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING BEING ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NWRLY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECTING WINDS TO START OUT THE DAY ON THE LIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY VARIABLE SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...OVERALL NOT EXPECTING
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUING.  THE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BEING SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY ARND 10 MPH. A REBOUND IN
TEMPS IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 80S CWA-
WIDE.

ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ADDITION OF SOME LOW POPS TO ROUGHLY THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LAST NIGHT A FEW MODELS HAD HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECTING THIS AREA...AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SLIDES THOUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS A ROUGHLY 30KT LLJ NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THAT TREND
REMAINS IN THOSE MODELS...AND OTHERS TO VARYING DEGREES ARE ALSO
SHOWING THAT POTENTIAL...SO INSERTED SOME 20-30 POPS...MAINLY FOR
THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THAT DISTURBANCE SLIDES OFF
TO THE EAST AND MODELS SHOW WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS
MORE CAPPED OFF. EXPECTING ANOTHER REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR WED...WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 90S.

AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...AND ESP THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE A RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS SHOWING A TRANSITION IN THE UPPER LEVEL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE ROCKIES. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURS DRY...AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO SLIDE EAST /WHAT IS AFFECTING US IS THE
SRN EDGE OF A TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
CANADA/...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO SETTING UP
ACROSS THE CWA. THINKING IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 00Z AND AFTER...BUT WILL SEE HOW MODELS
TREND...MAY END UP NEEDING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH CURRENT
MODELS SHOW OCCURRING ROUGHLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA...BEFORE SLIDING EAST DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOWER AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...AS MODELS DIFFER WITH WHERE THE
FRONT ULTIMATELY ENDS UP...AND WHETHER IT EVER SHIFTS BACK NORTH
ENOUGH TO AGAIN AFFECT THE CWA.  KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME...GENERALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS
MAINLY THE GFS IS SHOWING THAT BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND CLOSER TO
THE AREA...AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE PRECIP CHANCES.  THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE FRONT/PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS MORE PERIODS DRY.
WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND.

THERE IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAKES THURSDAYS HIGH
FORECAST TRICKY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.  CURRENTLY IT RANGES
FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE...WITH TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

I TOOK OUT MVFR VISIBILITY AS THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNS OF
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY. ALSO...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 011051
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW STRONG THESE STORM MAY BE.

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTER WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC...WITH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN FLOW. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
APPROACH 100 KTS. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME QPF
EITHER/BOTH AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND
EAST TO KEEP US FROM GETTING IN ON ANY REDEVELOPMENT.

WE WILL BE IN A COOLER AND DRIER REGIME BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A COUPLE OF
MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS COMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH THE FIRST
PERTURBATION IN THE AFTERNOON PERHAPS DROPPING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-CITIES. THEN LATE
EVENING ANOTHER PERTURBATION FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH COULD CLIP ARE
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SHEAR...HOWEVER WITH 40 TO 50 KTS LIKELY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED...BUT HARDLY NON-EXISTENT. 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR POSSIBLY
A LITTLE MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS COMBINATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENTERTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST A STRONG STORM OR TWO IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS FARTHER NORTH IN THE EVENING. WOULD NOT BE
ALL THAT SURPRISING TO GET A 50 MPH WIND GUST AND/OR NICKEL SIZE
HAIL FROM A STORM. THIS IS ALL ASSUMING THAT THE CAP COULD BE
BROKEN...WHICH LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY.

USED BCCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY...WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS SEEMS TO WORK WELL THE FOLLOWING
DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...PERHAPS NUDGING DOWN SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING BEING ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NWRLY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECTING WINDS TO START OUT THE DAY ON THE LIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY VARIABLE SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...OVERALL NOT EXPECTING
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUING.  THE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BEING SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY ARND 10 MPH. A REBOUND IN
TEMPS IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 80S CWA-
WIDE.

ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ADDITION OF SOME LOW POPS TO ROUGHLY THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LAST NIGHT A FEW MODELS HAD HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECTING THIS AREA...AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SLIDES THOUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS A ROUGHLY 30KT LLJ NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THAT TREND
REMAINS IN THOSE MODELS...AND OTHERS TO VARYING DEGREES ARE ALSO
SHOWING THAT POTENTIAL...SO INSERTED SOME 20-30 POPS...MAINLY FOR
THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THAT DISTURBANCE SLIDES OFF
TO THE EAST AND MODELS SHOW WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS
MORE CAPPED OFF. EXPECTING ANOTHER REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR WED...WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 90S.

AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...AND ESP THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE A RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS SHOWING A TRANSITION IN THE UPPER LEVEL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE ROCKIES. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURS DRY...AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO SLIDE EAST /WHAT IS AFFECTING US IS THE
SRN EDGE OF A TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
CANADA/...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO SETTING UP
ACROSS THE CWA. THINKING IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 00Z AND AFTER...BUT WILL SEE HOW MODELS
TREND...MAY END UP NEEDING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH CURRENT
MODELS SHOW OCCURRING ROUGHLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA...BEFORE SLIDING EAST DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOWER AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...AS MODELS DIFFER WITH WHERE THE
FRONT ULTIMATELY ENDS UP...AND WHETHER IT EVER SHIFTS BACK NORTH
ENOUGH TO AGAIN AFFECT THE CWA.  KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME...GENERALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS
MAINLY THE GFS IS SHOWING THAT BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND CLOSER TO
THE AREA...AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE PRECIP CHANCES.  THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE FRONT/PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS MORE PERIODS DRY.
WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND.

THERE IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAKES THURSDAYS HIGH
FORECAST TRICKY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.  CURRENTLY IT RANGES
FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE...WITH TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

I TOOK OUT MVFR VISIBILITY AS THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNS OF
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY. ALSO...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 011051
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW STRONG THESE STORM MAY BE.

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTER WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC...WITH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN FLOW. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
APPROACH 100 KTS. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME QPF
EITHER/BOTH AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND
EAST TO KEEP US FROM GETTING IN ON ANY REDEVELOPMENT.

WE WILL BE IN A COOLER AND DRIER REGIME BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A COUPLE OF
MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS COMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH THE FIRST
PERTURBATION IN THE AFTERNOON PERHAPS DROPPING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-CITIES. THEN LATE
EVENING ANOTHER PERTURBATION FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH COULD CLIP ARE
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SHEAR...HOWEVER WITH 40 TO 50 KTS LIKELY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED...BUT HARDLY NON-EXISTENT. 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR POSSIBLY
A LITTLE MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS COMBINATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENTERTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST A STRONG STORM OR TWO IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS FARTHER NORTH IN THE EVENING. WOULD NOT BE
ALL THAT SURPRISING TO GET A 50 MPH WIND GUST AND/OR NICKEL SIZE
HAIL FROM A STORM. THIS IS ALL ASSUMING THAT THE CAP COULD BE
BROKEN...WHICH LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY.

USED BCCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY...WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS SEEMS TO WORK WELL THE FOLLOWING
DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...PERHAPS NUDGING DOWN SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING BEING ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NWRLY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECTING WINDS TO START OUT THE DAY ON THE LIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY VARIABLE SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...OVERALL NOT EXPECTING
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUING.  THE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BEING SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY ARND 10 MPH. A REBOUND IN
TEMPS IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 80S CWA-
WIDE.

ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ADDITION OF SOME LOW POPS TO ROUGHLY THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LAST NIGHT A FEW MODELS HAD HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECTING THIS AREA...AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SLIDES THOUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS A ROUGHLY 30KT LLJ NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THAT TREND
REMAINS IN THOSE MODELS...AND OTHERS TO VARYING DEGREES ARE ALSO
SHOWING THAT POTENTIAL...SO INSERTED SOME 20-30 POPS...MAINLY FOR
THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THAT DISTURBANCE SLIDES OFF
TO THE EAST AND MODELS SHOW WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS
MORE CAPPED OFF. EXPECTING ANOTHER REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR WED...WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 90S.

AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...AND ESP THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE A RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS SHOWING A TRANSITION IN THE UPPER LEVEL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE ROCKIES. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURS DRY...AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO SLIDE EAST /WHAT IS AFFECTING US IS THE
SRN EDGE OF A TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
CANADA/...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO SETTING UP
ACROSS THE CWA. THINKING IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 00Z AND AFTER...BUT WILL SEE HOW MODELS
TREND...MAY END UP NEEDING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH CURRENT
MODELS SHOW OCCURRING ROUGHLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA...BEFORE SLIDING EAST DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOWER AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...AS MODELS DIFFER WITH WHERE THE
FRONT ULTIMATELY ENDS UP...AND WHETHER IT EVER SHIFTS BACK NORTH
ENOUGH TO AGAIN AFFECT THE CWA.  KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME...GENERALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS
MAINLY THE GFS IS SHOWING THAT BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND CLOSER TO
THE AREA...AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE PRECIP CHANCES.  THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE FRONT/PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS MORE PERIODS DRY.
WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND.

THERE IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAKES THURSDAYS HIGH
FORECAST TRICKY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.  CURRENTLY IT RANGES
FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE...WITH TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

I TOOK OUT MVFR VISIBILITY AS THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNS OF
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY. ALSO...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 011051
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW STRONG THESE STORM MAY BE.

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTER WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC...WITH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN FLOW. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
APPROACH 100 KTS. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME QPF
EITHER/BOTH AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND
EAST TO KEEP US FROM GETTING IN ON ANY REDEVELOPMENT.

WE WILL BE IN A COOLER AND DRIER REGIME BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A COUPLE OF
MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS COMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH THE FIRST
PERTURBATION IN THE AFTERNOON PERHAPS DROPPING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-CITIES. THEN LATE
EVENING ANOTHER PERTURBATION FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH COULD CLIP ARE
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SHEAR...HOWEVER WITH 40 TO 50 KTS LIKELY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED...BUT HARDLY NON-EXISTENT. 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR POSSIBLY
A LITTLE MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS COMBINATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENTERTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST A STRONG STORM OR TWO IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS FARTHER NORTH IN THE EVENING. WOULD NOT BE
ALL THAT SURPRISING TO GET A 50 MPH WIND GUST AND/OR NICKEL SIZE
HAIL FROM A STORM. THIS IS ALL ASSUMING THAT THE CAP COULD BE
BROKEN...WHICH LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY.

USED BCCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY...WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS SEEMS TO WORK WELL THE FOLLOWING
DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...PERHAPS NUDGING DOWN SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING BEING ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NWRLY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECTING WINDS TO START OUT THE DAY ON THE LIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY VARIABLE SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...OVERALL NOT EXPECTING
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUING.  THE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BEING SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY ARND 10 MPH. A REBOUND IN
TEMPS IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 80S CWA-
WIDE.

ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ADDITION OF SOME LOW POPS TO ROUGHLY THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LAST NIGHT A FEW MODELS HAD HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECTING THIS AREA...AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SLIDES THOUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS A ROUGHLY 30KT LLJ NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THAT TREND
REMAINS IN THOSE MODELS...AND OTHERS TO VARYING DEGREES ARE ALSO
SHOWING THAT POTENTIAL...SO INSERTED SOME 20-30 POPS...MAINLY FOR
THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THAT DISTURBANCE SLIDES OFF
TO THE EAST AND MODELS SHOW WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS
MORE CAPPED OFF. EXPECTING ANOTHER REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR WED...WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 90S.

AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...AND ESP THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE A RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS SHOWING A TRANSITION IN THE UPPER LEVEL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE ROCKIES. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURS DRY...AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO SLIDE EAST /WHAT IS AFFECTING US IS THE
SRN EDGE OF A TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
CANADA/...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO SETTING UP
ACROSS THE CWA. THINKING IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 00Z AND AFTER...BUT WILL SEE HOW MODELS
TREND...MAY END UP NEEDING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH CURRENT
MODELS SHOW OCCURRING ROUGHLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA...BEFORE SLIDING EAST DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOWER AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...AS MODELS DIFFER WITH WHERE THE
FRONT ULTIMATELY ENDS UP...AND WHETHER IT EVER SHIFTS BACK NORTH
ENOUGH TO AGAIN AFFECT THE CWA.  KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME...GENERALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS
MAINLY THE GFS IS SHOWING THAT BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND CLOSER TO
THE AREA...AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE PRECIP CHANCES.  THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE FRONT/PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS MORE PERIODS DRY.
WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND.

THERE IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAKES THURSDAYS HIGH
FORECAST TRICKY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.  CURRENTLY IT RANGES
FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE...WITH TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

I TOOK OUT MVFR VISIBILITY AS THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNS OF
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY. ALSO...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 010919
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
419 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW STRONG THESE STORM MAY BE.

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTER WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC...WITH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN FLOW. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
APPROACH 100 KTS. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME QPF
EITHER/BOTH AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND
EAST TO KEEP US FROM GETTING IN ON ANY REDEVELOPMENT.

WE WILL BE IN A COOLER AND DRIER REGIME BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A COUPLE OF
MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS COMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH THE FIRST
PERTURBATION IN THE AFTERNOON PERHAPS DROPPING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-CITIES. THEN LATE
EVENING ANOTHER PERTURBATION FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH COULD CLIP ARE
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SHEAR...HOWEVER WITH 40 TO 50 KTS LIKELY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED...BUT HARDLY NON-EXISTENT. 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR POSSIBLY
A LITTLE MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS COMBINATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENTERTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST A STRONG STORM OR TWO IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS FARTHER NORTH IN THE EVENING. WOULD NOT BE
ALL THAT SURPRISING TO GET A 50 MPH WIND GUST AND/OR NICKEL SIZE
HAIL FROM A STORM. THIS IS ALL ASSUMING THAT THE CAP COULD BE
BROKEN...WHICH LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY.

USED BCCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY...WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS SEEMS TO WORK WELL THE FOLLOWING
DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...PERHAPS NUDGING DOWN SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING BEING ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NWRLY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECTING WINDS TO START OUT THE DAY ON THE LIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY VARIABLE SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...OVERALL NOT EXPECTING
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUING.  THE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BEING SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY ARND 10 MPH. A REBOUND IN
TEMPS IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 80S CWA-
WIDE.

ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ADDITION OF SOME LOW POPS TO ROUGHLY THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LAST NIGHT A FEW MODELS HAD HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECTING THIS AREA...AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SLIDES THOUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS A ROUGHLY 30KT LLJ NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THAT TREND
REMAINS IN THOSE MODELS...AND OTHERS TO VARYING DEGREES ARE ALSO
SHOWING THAT POTENTIAL...SO INSERTED SOME 20-30 POPS...MAINLY FOR
THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THAT DISTURBANCE SLIDES OFF
TO THE EAST AND MODELS SHOW WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS
MORE CAPPED OFF. EXPECTING ANOTHER REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR WED...WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 90S.

AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...AND ESP THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE A RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS SHOWING A TRANSITION IN THE UPPER LEVEL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE ROCKIES. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURS DRY...AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO SLIDE EAST /WHAT IS AFFECTING US IS THE
SRN EDGE OF A TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
CANADA/...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO SETTING UP
ACROSS THE CWA. THINKING IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 00Z AND AFTER...BUT WILL SEE HOW MODELS
TREND...MAY END UP NEEDING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH CURRENT
MODELS SHOW OCCURRING ROUGHLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA...BEFORE SLIDING EAST DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOWER AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...AS MODELS DIFFER WITH WHERE THE
FRONT ULTIMATELY ENDS UP...AND WHETHER IT EVER SHIFTS BACK NORTH
ENOUGH TO AGAIN AFFECT THE CWA.  KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME...GENERALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS
MAINLY THE GFS IS SHOWING THAT BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND CLOSER TO
THE AREA...AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE PRECIP CHANCES.  THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE FRONT/PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS MORE PERIODS DRY.
WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND.

THERE IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAKES THURSDAYS HIGH
FORECAST TRICKY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.  CURRENTLY IT RANGES
FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE...WITH TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WE COULD GET SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT TIME NEAR DAWN
WITH LIGHT WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RECENT RAIN WITHIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. ALSO...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD GIVE US A SHOT
AT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 010919
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
419 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW STRONG THESE STORM MAY BE.

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTER WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC...WITH SMALL
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN FLOW. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
APPROACH 100 KTS. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME QPF
EITHER/BOTH AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND
EAST TO KEEP US FROM GETTING IN ON ANY REDEVELOPMENT.

WE WILL BE IN A COOLER AND DRIER REGIME BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A COUPLE OF
MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS COMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH THE FIRST
PERTURBATION IN THE AFTERNOON PERHAPS DROPPING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-CITIES. THEN LATE
EVENING ANOTHER PERTURBATION FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH COULD CLIP ARE
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SHEAR...HOWEVER WITH 40 TO 50 KTS LIKELY. INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED...BUT HARDLY NON-EXISTENT. 1000 J/KG OF CAPE OR POSSIBLY
A LITTLE MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS COMBINATION WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENTERTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST A STRONG STORM OR TWO IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS FARTHER NORTH IN THE EVENING. WOULD NOT BE
ALL THAT SURPRISING TO GET A 50 MPH WIND GUST AND/OR NICKEL SIZE
HAIL FROM A STORM. THIS IS ALL ASSUMING THAT THE CAP COULD BE
BROKEN...WHICH LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY.

USED BCCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY...WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS SEEMS TO WORK WELL THE FOLLOWING
DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...PERHAPS NUDGING DOWN SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING BEING ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NWRLY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN CONUS AND A BROAD TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECTING WINDS TO START OUT THE DAY ON THE LIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY VARIABLE SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...OVERALL NOT EXPECTING
ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUING.  THE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BEING SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS...THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY ARND 10 MPH. A REBOUND IN
TEMPS IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 80S CWA-
WIDE.

ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ADDITION OF SOME LOW POPS TO ROUGHLY THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
LAST NIGHT A FEW MODELS HAD HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFFECTING THIS AREA...AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SLIDES THOUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS A ROUGHLY 30KT LLJ NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THAT TREND
REMAINS IN THOSE MODELS...AND OTHERS TO VARYING DEGREES ARE ALSO
SHOWING THAT POTENTIAL...SO INSERTED SOME 20-30 POPS...MAINLY FOR
THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THAT DISTURBANCE SLIDES OFF
TO THE EAST AND MODELS SHOW WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS
MORE CAPPED OFF. EXPECTING ANOTHER REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR WED...WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 90S.

AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...AND ESP THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE A RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS SHOWING A TRANSITION IN THE UPPER LEVEL TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW AND INTO
THE ROCKIES. KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURS DRY...AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO SLIDE EAST /WHAT IS AFFECTING US IS THE
SRN EDGE OF A TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
CANADA/...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO SETTING UP
ACROSS THE CWA. THINKING IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 00Z AND AFTER...BUT WILL SEE HOW MODELS
TREND...MAY END UP NEEDING POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...WHICH CURRENT
MODELS SHOW OCCURRING ROUGHLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA...BEFORE SLIDING EAST DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOWER AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...AS MODELS DIFFER WITH WHERE THE
FRONT ULTIMATELY ENDS UP...AND WHETHER IT EVER SHIFTS BACK NORTH
ENOUGH TO AGAIN AFFECT THE CWA.  KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME...GENERALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS
MAINLY THE GFS IS SHOWING THAT BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND CLOSER TO
THE AREA...AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE PRECIP CHANCES.  THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE FRONT/PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS MORE PERIODS DRY.
WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND.

THERE IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAKES THURSDAYS HIGH
FORECAST TRICKY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.  CURRENTLY IT RANGES
FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE...WITH TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WE COULD GET SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT TIME NEAR DAWN
WITH LIGHT WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RECENT RAIN WITHIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. ALSO...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD GIVE US A SHOT
AT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 010843
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
343 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TODAY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST DURING
PEAK HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TO LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LATER TODAY AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MORE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED WITH BETTER
WIND THREAT THAN RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY...AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 70S. THEN TONIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND RANGING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER EAST.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DOWN RIGHT HOT...WITH HIGHS AT
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS AT 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE. MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WARM UP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
STRONG PV ANOMALY PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC AIR
INVADE THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...AND ONLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR OR LOWER
STRATUS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KVTN AFTER 09Z. THE STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY MID MORNING. THEN AN
ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS BACK TO KVTN
AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KECK
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS/KECK






000
FXUS63 KLBF 010843
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
343 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TODAY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST DURING
PEAK HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TO LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LATER TODAY AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MORE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED WITH BETTER
WIND THREAT THAN RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY...AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 70S. THEN TONIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND RANGING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER EAST.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DOWN RIGHT HOT...WITH HIGHS AT
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS AT 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE. MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WARM UP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
STRONG PV ANOMALY PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC AIR
INVADE THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...AND ONLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR OR LOWER
STRATUS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KVTN AFTER 09Z. THE STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY MID MORNING. THEN AN
ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS BACK TO KVTN
AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KECK
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS/KECK







000
FXUS63 KOAX 010824
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO ALONG A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT.
FORCING WAS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVG ALOFT ASSOC WITH RRQ OF UPPER
JET.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT VERY BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING THE NRN TIER
STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER THIS WEEK WITH A POS TILT LONGWAVE
TROF BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
FOUND MAINLY E/SE OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING COMBINATION OF PASSING VORT ENERGY AND
BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NEB. SUSPECT AREAL COVERAGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THUS WILL CONFINE
OVERNIGHT POPS TO THE NRN CWA. SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THEN
TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE ALONG 310-315K SFC
AND CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE FOCUSED.

WED/WED NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. GULF MOIST ADV INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS TIME WITH
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT GETTING PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COND PRES DEF WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO
OVERCOME TO ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT TO SATURATE OUT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THOSE PDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV UP TO THIS POINT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PHASE WITH MID LYR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH BOTH
GFS/ECM SHOWING GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT TO HELP INDUCE PCPN...HAVE
DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT POPS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SFC
HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND DISPLACE
THE FRONTAL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT
GFS/ECM QPF WITHIN CWA IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY FCST SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF
SITES. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z. THEN EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10KT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 010824
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS FINALLY PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO ALONG A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT.
FORCING WAS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVG ALOFT ASSOC WITH RRQ OF UPPER
JET.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT VERY BROAD UPPER TROF COVERING THE NRN TIER
STATES THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS BEFORE REAMPLIFYING LATER THIS WEEK WITH A POS TILT LONGWAVE
TROF BECOMING SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ALSO
IN AGREEMENT BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
FOUND MAINLY E/SE OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING COMBINATION OF PASSING VORT ENERGY AND
BNDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE ENOUGH FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NEB. SUSPECT AREAL COVERAGE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THUS WILL CONFINE
OVERNIGHT POPS TO THE NRN CWA. SIMILAR SITUATION SETTING UP THEN
TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ADV/UPGLIDE ALONG 310-315K SFC
AND CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL BE FOCUSED.

WED/WED NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE POTENT PAC NW SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST AND INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. GULF MOIST ADV INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS TIME WITH
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT GETTING PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WED NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COND PRES DEF WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH TO
OVERCOME TO ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT TO SATURATE OUT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THOSE PDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADV UP TO THIS POINT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT TO PHASE WITH MID LYR
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH BOTH
GFS/ECM SHOWING GOOD AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT TO HELP INDUCE PCPN...HAVE
DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT POPS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SFC
HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD SWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND DISPLACE
THE FRONTAL BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...SUSPECT
GFS/ECM QPF WITHIN CWA IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY FCST SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF
SITES. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z. THEN EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10KT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 010644
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
144 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH SPANNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY
PUSHING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING. THERE WAS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND WAS FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND UP INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AND WITH SOME SHOWERS...AND COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY JUMP UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE WEST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPINGS THROUGH
THE 50S IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
SEEN IN THE FAR EASTERN NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OTHERWISE CLEARING
ACROSS THE WEST. AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH DAYBREAK IN THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST UPDATED TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY OVER WYOMING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
AREA EASTWARD AND SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING.
CAPE VALUES AT MID AFTERNOON ARE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE...SO IF
CONVECTION CAN GET A HOLD OF SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GET SOME MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GOING ON. ALSO...THERE IS
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...40-50 KTS SO THINKING THERE
COULD BE SOME BRIEF STRONGER STORMS /MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE/ BUT DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCES FOR LONG-LASTING
SUPER-CELLULAR STORMS DUE TO THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND AS WINDS DIE DOWN...LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS A
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING WOULD BRING THE SHORTWAVE
FROM WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA AFTER 18Z...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT...WITH A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION TO SUPPORT STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT. CAPE ISN/T SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS SOME THERE...AND WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY...BUT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 16C-18C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FOR MONDAY EVENING...20 TO 30 POPS CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST
FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST. ENDED POPS AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA...LOWS
WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 ONL TO NEAR 88 AT IML.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA AND THE PAC
NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS HUDSON BAY CANADA...THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE
ECMWF...GEM...12Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WILL BRING A COOLDOWN
THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NCTRL TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH...FOLLOWED
BY LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR OR LOWER
STRATUS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KVTN AFTER 09Z. THE STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY MID MORNING. THEN AN
ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS BACK TO KVTN
AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KECK
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS/KECK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 010644
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
144 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH SPANNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY
PUSHING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING. THERE WAS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND WAS FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND UP INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AND WITH SOME SHOWERS...AND COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY JUMP UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE WEST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPINGS THROUGH
THE 50S IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
SEEN IN THE FAR EASTERN NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OTHERWISE CLEARING
ACROSS THE WEST. AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH DAYBREAK IN THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST UPDATED TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY OVER WYOMING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
AREA EASTWARD AND SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING.
CAPE VALUES AT MID AFTERNOON ARE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE...SO IF
CONVECTION CAN GET A HOLD OF SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GET SOME MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GOING ON. ALSO...THERE IS
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...40-50 KTS SO THINKING THERE
COULD BE SOME BRIEF STRONGER STORMS /MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE/ BUT DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCES FOR LONG-LASTING
SUPER-CELLULAR STORMS DUE TO THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND AS WINDS DIE DOWN...LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS A
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING WOULD BRING THE SHORTWAVE
FROM WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA AFTER 18Z...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT...WITH A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION TO SUPPORT STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT. CAPE ISN/T SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS SOME THERE...AND WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY...BUT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 16C-18C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FOR MONDAY EVENING...20 TO 30 POPS CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST
FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST. ENDED POPS AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA...LOWS
WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 ONL TO NEAR 88 AT IML.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA AND THE PAC
NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS HUDSON BAY CANADA...THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE
ECMWF...GEM...12Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WILL BRING A COOLDOWN
THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NCTRL TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH...FOLLOWED
BY LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR OR LOWER
STRATUS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KVTN AFTER 09Z. THE STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY MID MORNING. THEN AN
ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS BACK TO KVTN
AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KECK
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS/KECK








000
FXUS63 KGID 010559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST MUCAPE
HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A CAP
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

LATE TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL SEE VARYING WEATHER FROM COOL/WARM AND
WET/DRY. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH A JET STREAK AND AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAKER...RANGING
FROM JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UP TO
POSSIBILITY AROUND 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURE TREND UP ON TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.  THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
40 TO 50KTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE JET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
ZONES...BUT WITH ACTIVITY ON THE EDGE OF OUR CWA PLAN TO JUST GO
WITH SILENT POPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION AND THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
HEIGHT RISES/RIDGING EXPANDING NORTH.  DAYTIME TEMPS CONTINUE TO
WARM IN THIS REGIME WITH H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 20S
CELSIUS AND RESULTANT AFTN TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S TO
MID 90S.  ANOTHER COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL NOT
DEVIATE FROM THE EXTENDED INIT AND CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHCS FOR
STORMS RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SETTLE
FROM EASTERN NEB TO WESTERN KS ON FRIDAY WITH FRONT FOCUSING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.  WITH TIME THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS A COOL 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  IN THE
COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPS WILL TREND MORE FALL LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AVERAGING IN THE 70S AND LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WE COULD GET SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT TIME NEAR DAWN
WITH LIGHT WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RECENT RAIN WITHIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. ALSO...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD GIVE US A SHOT
AT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 010559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST MUCAPE
HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A CAP
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

LATE TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL SEE VARYING WEATHER FROM COOL/WARM AND
WET/DRY. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH A JET STREAK AND AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAKER...RANGING
FROM JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UP TO
POSSIBILITY AROUND 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURE TREND UP ON TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.  THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
40 TO 50KTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE JET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
ZONES...BUT WITH ACTIVITY ON THE EDGE OF OUR CWA PLAN TO JUST GO
WITH SILENT POPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION AND THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
HEIGHT RISES/RIDGING EXPANDING NORTH.  DAYTIME TEMPS CONTINUE TO
WARM IN THIS REGIME WITH H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 20S
CELSIUS AND RESULTANT AFTN TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S TO
MID 90S.  ANOTHER COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL NOT
DEVIATE FROM THE EXTENDED INIT AND CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHCS FOR
STORMS RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SETTLE
FROM EASTERN NEB TO WESTERN KS ON FRIDAY WITH FRONT FOCUSING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.  WITH TIME THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS A COOL 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  IN THE
COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPS WILL TREND MORE FALL LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AVERAGING IN THE 70S AND LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WE COULD GET SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT TIME NEAR DAWN
WITH LIGHT WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RECENT RAIN WITHIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. ALSO...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD GIVE US A SHOT
AT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 010523
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH SPANNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY
PUSHING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING. THERE WAS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND WAS FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND UP INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AND WITH SOME SHOWERS...AND COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY JUMP UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY OVER WYOMING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
AREA EASTWARD AND SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING.
CAPE VALUES AT MID AFTERNOON ARE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE...SO IF
CONVECTION CAN GET A HOLD OF SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GET SOME MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GOING ON. ALSO...THERE IS
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...40-50 KTS SO THINKING THERE
COULD BE SOME BRIEF STRONGER STORMS /MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE/ BUT DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCES FOR LONG-LASTING
SUPER-CELLULAR STORMS DUE TO THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND AS WINDS DIE DOWN...LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS A
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING WOULD BRING THE SHORTWAVE
FROM WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA AFTER 18Z...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT...WITH A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION TO SUPPORT STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT. CAPE ISN/T SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS SOME THERE...AND WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY...BUT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 16C-18C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FOR MONDAY EVENING...20 TO 30 POPS CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST
FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST. ENDED POPS AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA...LOWS
WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 ONL TO NEAR 88 AT IML.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA AND THE PAC
NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS HUDSON BAY CANADA...THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE
ECMWF...GEM...12Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WILL BRING A COOLDOWN
THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NCTRL TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH...FOLLOWED
BY LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR OR LOWER
STRATUS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KVTN AFTER 09Z. THE STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY MID MORNING. THEN AN
ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS BACK TO KVTN
AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS/KECK









000
FXUS63 KOAX 010443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS WANED ACROSS OUR CWA AS LINE OF STORMS
HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OVERRUNNING REGIME UNDER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE PLAINS. ONE WAVE IN THIS FLOW WAS TRIGGERING STORMS
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA NOW...AND HRRR/RAP MODELS INDICATE THOSE WOULD
APPROACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA NEAR 06Z THEN SWEEP SOUTHEAST. SEVERE
STORMS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF
SITES. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z. THEN EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10KT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 010221
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
921 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS WANED ACROSS OUR CWA AS LINE OF STORMS
HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OVERRUNNING REGIME UNDER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE PLAINS. ONE WAVE IN THIS FLOW WAS TRIGGERING STORMS
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA NOW...AND HRRR/RAP MODELS INDICATE THOSE WOULD
APPROACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA NEAR 06Z THEN SWEEP SOUTHEAST. SEVERE
STORMS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 010221
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
921 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS WANED ACROSS OUR CWA AS LINE OF STORMS
HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OVERRUNNING REGIME UNDER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE PLAINS. ONE WAVE IN THIS FLOW WAS TRIGGERING STORMS
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA NOW...AND HRRR/RAP MODELS INDICATE THOSE WOULD
APPROACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA NEAR 06Z THEN SWEEP SOUTHEAST. SEVERE
STORMS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 312334
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
634 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH SPANNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY
PUSHING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING. THERE WAS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND WAS FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND UP INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AND WITH SOME SHOWERS...AND COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY JUMP UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY OVER WYOMING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
AREA EASTWARD AND SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING.
CAPE VALUES AT MID AFTERNOON ARE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE...SO IF
CONVECTION CAN GET A HOLD OF SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GET SOME MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GOING ON. ALSO...THERE IS
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...40-50 KTS SO THINKING THERE
COULD BE SOME BRIEF STRONGER STORMS /MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE/ BUT DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCES FOR LONG-LASTING
SUPER-CELLULAR STORMS DUE TO THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND AS WINDS DIE DOWN...LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS A
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING WOULD BRING THE SHORTWAVE
FROM WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA AFTER 18Z...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT...WITH A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION TO SUPPORT STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT. CAPE ISN/T SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS SOME THERE...AND WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY...BUT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 16C-18C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FOR MONDAY EVENING...20 TO 30 POPS CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST
FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST. ENDED POPS AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA...LOWS
WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 ONL TO NEAR 88 AT IML.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA AND THE PAC
NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS HUDSON BAY CANADA...THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE
ECMWF...GEM...12Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WILL BRING A COOLDOWN
THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NCTRL TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH...FOLLOWED
BY LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
01/06Z. THE SKY WILL CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF OVERNIGHT...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FARTHER NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS...INCLUDING KVTN. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS/DS








000
FXUS63 KGID 312323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST MUCAPE
HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A CAP
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

LATE TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL SEE VARYING WEATHER FROM COOL/WARM AND
WET/DRY. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH A JET STREAK AND AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAKER...RANGING
FROM JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UP TO
POSSIBILITY AROUND 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURE TREND UP ON TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.  THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
40 TO 50KTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE JET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
ZONES...BUT WITH ACTIVITY ON THE EDGE OF OUR CWA PLAN TO JUST GO
WITH SILENT POPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION AND THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
HEIGHT RISES/RIDGING EXPANDING NORTH.  DAYTIME TEMPS CONTINUE TO
WARM IN THIS REGIME WITH H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 20S
CELSIUS AND RESULTANT AFTN TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S TO
MID 90S.  ANOTHER COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL NOT
DEVIATE FROM THE EXTENDED INIT AND CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHCS FOR
STORMS RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SETTLE
FROM EASTERN NEB TO WESTERN KS ON FRIDAY WITH FRONT FOCUSING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.  WITH TIME THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS A COOL 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  IN THE
COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPS WILL TREND MORE FALL LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AVERAGING IN THE 70S AND LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL AREA AND
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THERE IS A LITTLE
CHANCE THAT IT COULD REDEVELOP LATER...BUT NOT SURE ENOUGH TO PUT
IT INTO THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 312323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST MUCAPE
HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A CAP
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

LATE TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL SEE VARYING WEATHER FROM COOL/WARM AND
WET/DRY. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH A JET STREAK AND AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAKER...RANGING
FROM JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UP TO
POSSIBILITY AROUND 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURE TREND UP ON TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.  THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
40 TO 50KTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE JET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
ZONES...BUT WITH ACTIVITY ON THE EDGE OF OUR CWA PLAN TO JUST GO
WITH SILENT POPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION AND THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
HEIGHT RISES/RIDGING EXPANDING NORTH.  DAYTIME TEMPS CONTINUE TO
WARM IN THIS REGIME WITH H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 20S
CELSIUS AND RESULTANT AFTN TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S TO
MID 90S.  ANOTHER COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL NOT
DEVIATE FROM THE EXTENDED INIT AND CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHCS FOR
STORMS RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SETTLE
FROM EASTERN NEB TO WESTERN KS ON FRIDAY WITH FRONT FOCUSING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.  WITH TIME THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS A COOL 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  IN THE
COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPS WILL TREND MORE FALL LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AVERAGING IN THE 70S AND LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL AREA AND
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THERE IS A LITTLE
CHANCE THAT IT COULD REDEVELOP LATER...BUT NOT SURE ENOUGH TO PUT
IT INTO THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KLBF 312054
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH SPANNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY
PUSHING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING. THERE WAS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND WAS FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND UP INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AND WITH SOME SHOWERS...AND COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY JUMP UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY OVER WYOMING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
AREA EASTWARD AND SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING.
CAPE VALUES AT MID AFTERNOON ARE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE...SO IF
CONVECTION CAN GET A HOLD OF SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GET SOME MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GOING ON. ALSO...THERE IS
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...40-50 KTS SO THINKING THERE
COULD BE SOME BRIEF STRONGER STORMS /MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE/ BUT DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCES FOR LONG-LASTING
SUPER-CELLULAR STORMS DUE TO THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND AS WINDS DIE DOWN...LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS A
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING WOULD BRING THE SHORTWAVE
FROM WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA AFTER 18Z...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT...WITH A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION TO SUPPORT STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT. CAPE ISN/T SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS SOME THERE...AND WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY...BUT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 16C-18C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FOR MONDAY EVENING...20 TO 30 POPS CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST
FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST. ENDED POPS AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA...LOWS
WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 ONL TO NEAR 88 AT IML.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA AND THE PAC
NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS HUDSON BAY CANADA...THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE
ECMWF...GEM...12Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WILL BRING A COOLDOWN
THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NCTRL TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH...FOLLOWED
BY LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS TIMING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING AND THROUGH MOST AREAS BY 06Z. THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED A MVFR CEILING AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS...BUT THAT
MAY BE TOO HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE CATEGORY SHOULD BE
DROPPED TO IFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 312054
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH SPANNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY
PUSHING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING. THERE WAS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND WAS FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND UP INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AND WITH SOME SHOWERS...AND COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY JUMP UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY OVER WYOMING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
AREA EASTWARD AND SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING.
CAPE VALUES AT MID AFTERNOON ARE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE...SO IF
CONVECTION CAN GET A HOLD OF SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GET SOME MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GOING ON. ALSO...THERE IS
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...40-50 KTS SO THINKING THERE
COULD BE SOME BRIEF STRONGER STORMS /MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE/ BUT DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCES FOR LONG-LASTING
SUPER-CELLULAR STORMS DUE TO THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND AS WINDS DIE DOWN...LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS A
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING WOULD BRING THE SHORTWAVE
FROM WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA AFTER 18Z...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT...WITH A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION TO SUPPORT STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT. CAPE ISN/T SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS SOME THERE...AND WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY...BUT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 16C-18C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FOR MONDAY EVENING...20 TO 30 POPS CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST
FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST. ENDED POPS AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA...LOWS
WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 ONL TO NEAR 88 AT IML.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA AND THE PAC
NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS HUDSON BAY CANADA...THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE
ECMWF...GEM...12Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WILL BRING A COOLDOWN
THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NCTRL TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH...FOLLOWED
BY LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS TIMING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING AND THROUGH MOST AREAS BY 06Z. THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED A MVFR CEILING AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS...BUT THAT
MAY BE TOO HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE CATEGORY SHOULD BE
DROPPED TO IFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KGID 312001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
301 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST MUCAPE
HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A CAP
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

LATE TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL SEE VARYING WEATHER FROM COOL/WARM AND
WET/DRY. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH A JET STREAK AND AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAKER...RANGING
FROM JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UP TO
POSSIBILITY AROUND 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURE TREND UP ON TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.  THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
40 TO 50KTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE JET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
ZONES...BUT WITH ACTIVITY ON THE EDGE OF OUR CWA PLAN TO JUST GO
WITH SILENT POPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION AND THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
HEIGHT RISES/RIDGING EXPANDING NORTH.  DAYTIME TEMPS CONTINUE TO
WARM IN THIS REGIME WITH H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 20S
CELSIUS AND RESULTANT AFTN TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S TO
MID 90S.  ANOTHER COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL NOT
DEVIATE FROM THE EXTENDED INIT AND CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHCS FOR
STORMS RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SETTLE
FROM EASTERN NEB TO WESTERN KS ON FRIDAY WITH FRONT FOCUSING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.  WITH TIME THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS A COOL 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  IN THE
COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPS WILL TREND MORE FALL LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AVERAGING IN THE 70S AND LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 312001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
301 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST MUCAPE
HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A CAP
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

LATE TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL SEE VARYING WEATHER FROM COOL/WARM AND
WET/DRY. BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH A JET STREAK AND AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS
THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAKER...RANGING
FROM JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IN OUR WESTERN ZONES UP TO
POSSIBILITY AROUND 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURE TREND UP ON TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.  THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
40 TO 50KTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE JET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
ZONES...BUT WITH ACTIVITY ON THE EDGE OF OUR CWA PLAN TO JUST GO
WITH SILENT POPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION AND THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
HEIGHT RISES/RIDGING EXPANDING NORTH.  DAYTIME TEMPS CONTINUE TO
WARM IN THIS REGIME WITH H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 20S
CELSIUS AND RESULTANT AFTN TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S TO
MID 90S.  ANOTHER COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL NOT
DEVIATE FROM THE EXTENDED INIT AND CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHCS FOR
STORMS RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SETTLE
FROM EASTERN NEB TO WESTERN KS ON FRIDAY WITH FRONT FOCUSING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.  WITH TIME THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS A COOL 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH FM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  IN THE
COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS TEMPS WILL TREND MORE FALL LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AVERAGING IN THE 70S AND LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KOAX 311946
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 311946
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 311946
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 311946
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY 06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
SOME CHANCE OF MORE CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH BUILDS A BIT TO THE NORTH. SOME SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FAR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH POPS
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE AREA AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KLBF 311824
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
124 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HAVE BEEN SEEING CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP SLIGHTLY BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BEHIND FROM FORECAST
HOURLY TEMPERATURES DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. STARTING TO SEE A BIT OF
TOWERING AND CUMULONIMBUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REALLY ISN/T MUCH
FOR INSTABILITY THOUGH SO THINKING STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE CHANCES YET
TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA AND JUST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY NOT ANTICIPATING A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE PV ANOMALY IS STILL OUT OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND SO
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
CLOSER. THERE IS A LOT OF SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT SO IF A FEW
STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED CAN/T DISCOUNT GETTING
A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING.
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS PROMPTED
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OUT
OF WYOMING. SEVERE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY LOCATION
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS
MORNING WITH THE HELP OF OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY. ONE
CONCERN IN THE LOCAL AREA IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS WHICH WILL
PROGRESS EAST AND SHOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
18Z. THIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL
STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS TIMING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING AND THROUGH MOST AREAS BY 06Z. THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED A MVFR CEILING AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS...BUT THAT
MAY BE TOO HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE CATEGORY SHOULD BE
DROPPED TO IFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 311824
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
124 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HAVE BEEN SEEING CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP SLIGHTLY BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BEHIND FROM FORECAST
HOURLY TEMPERATURES DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. STARTING TO SEE A BIT OF
TOWERING AND CUMULONIMBUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REALLY ISN/T MUCH
FOR INSTABILITY THOUGH SO THINKING STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE CHANCES YET
TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA AND JUST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY NOT ANTICIPATING A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE PV ANOMALY IS STILL OUT OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND SO
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
CLOSER. THERE IS A LOT OF SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT SO IF A FEW
STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED CAN/T DISCOUNT GETTING
A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING.
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS PROMPTED
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OUT
OF WYOMING. SEVERE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY LOCATION
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS
MORNING WITH THE HELP OF OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY. ONE
CONCERN IN THE LOCAL AREA IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS WHICH WILL
PROGRESS EAST AND SHOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
18Z. THIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL
STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS TIMING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING AND THROUGH MOST AREAS BY 06Z. THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED A MVFR CEILING AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS...BUT THAT
MAY BE TOO HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE CATEGORY SHOULD BE
DROPPED TO IFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KGID 311725
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WE ALSO COULD EASILY
GET CAPES OF OVER 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD REALLY START BLOWING UP
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 50 KTS...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN
THE AREA. THE MORE SUN WE GET EARLY ON...THE MORE SEVERE WEATHER WE
WILL WIND UP WITH. THIS IS A SITUATION MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE...RATHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER...AS VERY LARGE HAIL
AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA AS THIS
COLD FRONT RAKES EAST. WE CAN ANTICIPATE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY MERGING INTO A LINEAR SQUALL LINE.

THE WEAK MORNING CONVECTION THIS MORNING CONCENTRATED MORE IN OUR
SOUTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY WANE AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

I LIKE THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WE SHOULD REALLY HEAT
UP RATHER WELL WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WOULD DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS WELL. WENT
WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE
INCREASED LIFT THE MAIN DISTURBANCE HAVING SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE. AT THE
SURFACE...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH THE CWA...WITH NRLY WINDS USHERED IN BEHIND.  THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...WILL BE SEEING HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE W/NW...BRINGING DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS. A COOLER AIRMASS
ACCOMPANYING THIS HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A PRETTY
NICE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

CONTINUING THE LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS PRETTY LOW. NOT ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT...BUT A FEW CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CWA AS ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT...SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH IS LOOKING TO BE ZONAL ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CONUS ESP TUES AND WED...AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST IS LOWER DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...BUT SOME ARE
SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE SERN THIRD OR SO
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERS ARE DRY. AT THIS POINT AM KEEPING
THE DRY FORECAST GOING UNLESS THE REST OF THE MODELS TREND TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTION. AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A WRN CONUS
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...EXPECTING HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID
90S BY WEDNESDAY.

THAT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION LOOKS TO BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT
THE CWA...AND MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS JUST IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AT
THIS POINT...STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT DETAILS AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A SFC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE CHANCES
MAY BRING A COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 311725
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WE ALSO COULD EASILY
GET CAPES OF OVER 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD REALLY START BLOWING UP
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 50 KTS...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN
THE AREA. THE MORE SUN WE GET EARLY ON...THE MORE SEVERE WEATHER WE
WILL WIND UP WITH. THIS IS A SITUATION MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE...RATHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER...AS VERY LARGE HAIL
AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA AS THIS
COLD FRONT RAKES EAST. WE CAN ANTICIPATE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY MERGING INTO A LINEAR SQUALL LINE.

THE WEAK MORNING CONVECTION THIS MORNING CONCENTRATED MORE IN OUR
SOUTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY WANE AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

I LIKE THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WE SHOULD REALLY HEAT
UP RATHER WELL WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WOULD DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS WELL. WENT
WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE
INCREASED LIFT THE MAIN DISTURBANCE HAVING SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE. AT THE
SURFACE...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH THE CWA...WITH NRLY WINDS USHERED IN BEHIND.  THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...WILL BE SEEING HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE W/NW...BRINGING DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS. A COOLER AIRMASS
ACCOMPANYING THIS HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A PRETTY
NICE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

CONTINUING THE LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS PRETTY LOW. NOT ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT...BUT A FEW CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CWA AS ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT...SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH IS LOOKING TO BE ZONAL ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CONUS ESP TUES AND WED...AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST IS LOWER DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...BUT SOME ARE
SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE SERN THIRD OR SO
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERS ARE DRY. AT THIS POINT AM KEEPING
THE DRY FORECAST GOING UNLESS THE REST OF THE MODELS TREND TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTION. AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A WRN CONUS
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...EXPECTING HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID
90S BY WEDNESDAY.

THAT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION LOOKS TO BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT
THE CWA...AND MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS JUST IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AT
THIS POINT...STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT DETAILS AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A SFC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE CHANCES
MAY BRING A COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KOAX 311712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A GENERALLY WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING ALONG MO RIVER SHOULD
EXIT KOMA TAF SITE SHORTLY AFTER VALID START TIME WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING EASTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...CLOUDS COULD FILL IN QUICKLY. TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT STILL LIKELY THIS AFTN AS TROUGH/FRONT APPROACH.
ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT COULD BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY WITH LAG IN HEATING
DUE TO MORNING/MIDDAY CLOUDS...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL EXPECTED
TOWARD 00Z. HOWEVER...AXIS OF STRONGEST COULD BE SE OF KOFK...SO
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION WERE RESERVED FOR KOMA AND
KLNK. BESIDES THE STRONG WIND GUSTS...STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN
HAIL WHICH WAS NOT INCLUDED IN TAF FORECASTS. STORMS COULD LINGER
BEHIND FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO BE LESS THAN EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY. LOW
CLOUDS WERE ALSO EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO LABOR DAY MORNING...AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WERE
INCLUDED AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 311712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A GENERALLY WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING ALONG MO RIVER SHOULD
EXIT KOMA TAF SITE SHORTLY AFTER VALID START TIME WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING EASTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...CLOUDS COULD FILL IN QUICKLY. TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT STILL LIKELY THIS AFTN AS TROUGH/FRONT APPROACH.
ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT COULD BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY WITH LAG IN HEATING
DUE TO MORNING/MIDDAY CLOUDS...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL EXPECTED
TOWARD 00Z. HOWEVER...AXIS OF STRONGEST COULD BE SE OF KOFK...SO
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION WERE RESERVED FOR KOMA AND
KLNK. BESIDES THE STRONG WIND GUSTS...STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN
HAIL WHICH WAS NOT INCLUDED IN TAF FORECASTS. STORMS COULD LINGER
BEHIND FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO BE LESS THAN EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY. LOW
CLOUDS WERE ALSO EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO LABOR DAY MORNING...AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WERE
INCLUDED AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 311712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A GENERALLY WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING ALONG MO RIVER SHOULD
EXIT KOMA TAF SITE SHORTLY AFTER VALID START TIME WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING EASTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...CLOUDS COULD FILL IN QUICKLY. TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT STILL LIKELY THIS AFTN AS TROUGH/FRONT APPROACH.
ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT COULD BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY WITH LAG IN HEATING
DUE TO MORNING/MIDDAY CLOUDS...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL EXPECTED
TOWARD 00Z. HOWEVER...AXIS OF STRONGEST COULD BE SE OF KOFK...SO
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION WERE RESERVED FOR KOMA AND
KLNK. BESIDES THE STRONG WIND GUSTS...STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN
HAIL WHICH WAS NOT INCLUDED IN TAF FORECASTS. STORMS COULD LINGER
BEHIND FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO BE LESS THAN EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY. LOW
CLOUDS WERE ALSO EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO LABOR DAY MORNING...AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WERE
INCLUDED AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 311712
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A GENERALLY WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING ALONG MO RIVER SHOULD
EXIT KOMA TAF SITE SHORTLY AFTER VALID START TIME WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING EASTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...CLOUDS COULD FILL IN QUICKLY. TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT STILL LIKELY THIS AFTN AS TROUGH/FRONT APPROACH.
ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT COULD BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY WITH LAG IN HEATING
DUE TO MORNING/MIDDAY CLOUDS...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL EXPECTED
TOWARD 00Z. HOWEVER...AXIS OF STRONGEST COULD BE SE OF KOFK...SO
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION WERE RESERVED FOR KOMA AND
KLNK. BESIDES THE STRONG WIND GUSTS...STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN
HAIL WHICH WAS NOT INCLUDED IN TAF FORECASTS. STORMS COULD LINGER
BEHIND FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TO BE LESS THAN EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY. LOW
CLOUDS WERE ALSO EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO LABOR DAY MORNING...AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WERE
INCLUDED AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 311436 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING.
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS PROMPTED
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OUT
OF WYOMING. SEVERE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY LOCATION
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS
MORNING WITH THE HELP OF OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY. ONE
CONCERN IN THE LOCAL AREA IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS WHICH WILL
PROGRESS EAST AND SHOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
18Z. THIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL
STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION EVOLVING SIMILAR THIS MORNING SO FAR TO THE WAY HIRES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AS NEXT CLUSTER EMERGES
FROM ERN WY AND MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSRA ARE FORMING IN THE WAA ZONE AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND
MORE IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY SERVE TO STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AND DISRUPT SFC
BASED CONVECTION HERE IN WRN AND NC NEB...AND MAY PUSH THIS
FURTHER EAST. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD
AND THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE CAPE ALOFT TO PROMOTE HAIL GROWTH.
THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO KLBF TAF SITE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT IN NC NEBRASKA THIS EVENING SO HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING
GROUP FOR KVTN FOR TSRA THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF
ACTUAL COVERAGE OF STORMS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 311436 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING.
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS PROMPTED
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OUT
OF WYOMING. SEVERE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY LOCATION
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS
MORNING WITH THE HELP OF OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY. ONE
CONCERN IN THE LOCAL AREA IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS WHICH WILL
PROGRESS EAST AND SHOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
18Z. THIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL
STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION EVOLVING SIMILAR THIS MORNING SO FAR TO THE WAY HIRES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AS NEXT CLUSTER EMERGES
FROM ERN WY AND MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSRA ARE FORMING IN THE WAA ZONE AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND
MORE IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY SERVE TO STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AND DISRUPT SFC
BASED CONVECTION HERE IN WRN AND NC NEB...AND MAY PUSH THIS
FURTHER EAST. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD
AND THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE CAPE ALOFT TO PROMOTE HAIL GROWTH.
THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO KLBF TAF SITE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT IN NC NEBRASKA THIS EVENING SO HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING
GROUP FOR KVTN FOR TSRA THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF
ACTUAL COVERAGE OF STORMS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 311436 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING.
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS PROMPTED
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OUT
OF WYOMING. SEVERE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY LOCATION
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS
MORNING WITH THE HELP OF OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY. ONE
CONCERN IN THE LOCAL AREA IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS WHICH WILL
PROGRESS EAST AND SHOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
18Z. THIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL
STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION EVOLVING SIMILAR THIS MORNING SO FAR TO THE WAY HIRES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AS NEXT CLUSTER EMERGES
FROM ERN WY AND MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSRA ARE FORMING IN THE WAA ZONE AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND
MORE IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY SERVE TO STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AND DISRUPT SFC
BASED CONVECTION HERE IN WRN AND NC NEB...AND MAY PUSH THIS
FURTHER EAST. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD
AND THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE CAPE ALOFT TO PROMOTE HAIL GROWTH.
THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO KLBF TAF SITE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT IN NC NEBRASKA THIS EVENING SO HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING
GROUP FOR KVTN FOR TSRA THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF
ACTUAL COVERAGE OF STORMS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 311436 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING.
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS PROMPTED
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OUT
OF WYOMING. SEVERE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY LOCATION
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS
MORNING WITH THE HELP OF OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY. ONE
CONCERN IN THE LOCAL AREA IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS WHICH WILL
PROGRESS EAST AND SHOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
18Z. THIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL
STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION EVOLVING SIMILAR THIS MORNING SO FAR TO THE WAY HIRES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AS NEXT CLUSTER EMERGES
FROM ERN WY AND MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSRA ARE FORMING IN THE WAA ZONE AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND
MORE IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY SERVE TO STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AND DISRUPT SFC
BASED CONVECTION HERE IN WRN AND NC NEB...AND MAY PUSH THIS
FURTHER EAST. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD
AND THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE CAPE ALOFT TO PROMOTE HAIL GROWTH.
THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO KLBF TAF SITE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT IN NC NEBRASKA THIS EVENING SO HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING
GROUP FOR KVTN FOR TSRA THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF
ACTUAL COVERAGE OF STORMS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 311152
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
652 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION EVOLVING SIMILAR THIS MORNING SO FAR TO THE WAY HIRES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AS NEXT CLUSTER EMERGES
FROM ERN WY AND MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSRA ARE FORMING IN THE WAA ZONE AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND
MORE IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY SERVE TO STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AND DISRUPT SFC
BASED CONVECTION HERE IN WRN AND NC NEB...AND MAY PUSH THIS
FURTHER EAST. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD
AND THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE CAPE ALOFT TO PROMOTE HAIL GROWTH.
THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO KLBF TAF SITE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT IN NC NEBRASKA THIS EVENING SO HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING
GROUP FOR KVTN FOR TSRA THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF
ACTUAL COVERAGE OF STORMS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 311152
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
652 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION EVOLVING SIMILAR THIS MORNING SO FAR TO THE WAY HIRES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AS NEXT CLUSTER EMERGES
FROM ERN WY AND MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSRA ARE FORMING IN THE WAA ZONE AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND
MORE IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY SERVE TO STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AND DISRUPT SFC
BASED CONVECTION HERE IN WRN AND NC NEB...AND MAY PUSH THIS
FURTHER EAST. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD
AND THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE CAPE ALOFT TO PROMOTE HAIL GROWTH.
THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO KLBF TAF SITE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT IN NC NEBRASKA THIS EVENING SO HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING
GROUP FOR KVTN FOR TSRA THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF
ACTUAL COVERAGE OF STORMS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS







000
FXUS63 KOAX 311130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AVN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS REVOLVING
AROUND STRONG/SEVERE +TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS ERN NEB. EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE THIS
AFTN AS FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES TAF SITES WITH DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AT KOFK BY LATE AFTN...AND EARLY
EVENING AT KOMA/KLNK. EXPECT STORMS THEN TO ORGANIZE INTO MCS AND
QUICKLY PUSH INTO WRN IA SHORTLY AFTN 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KOAX 311130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AVN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS REVOLVING
AROUND STRONG/SEVERE +TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS ERN NEB. EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE THIS
AFTN AS FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES TAF SITES WITH DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AT KOFK BY LATE AFTN...AND EARLY
EVENING AT KOMA/KLNK. EXPECT STORMS THEN TO ORGANIZE INTO MCS AND
QUICKLY PUSH INTO WRN IA SHORTLY AFTN 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KGID 311048
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WE ALSO COULD EASILY
GET CAPES OF OVER 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD REALLY START BLOWING UP
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 50 KTS...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN
THE AREA. THE MORE SUN WE GET EARLY ON...THE MORE SEVERE WEATHER WE
WILL WIND UP WITH. THIS IS A SITUATION MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE...RATHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER...AS VERY LARGE HAIL
AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA AS THIS
COLD FRONT RAKES EAST. WE CAN ANTICIPATE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY MERGING INTO A LINEAR SQUALL LINE.

THE WEAK MORNING CONVECTION THIS MORNING CONCENTRATED MORE IN OUR
SOUTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY WANE AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

I LIKE THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WE SHOULD REALLY HEAT
UP RATHER WELL WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WOULD DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS WELL. WENT
WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE
INCREASED LIFT THE MAIN DISTURBANCE HAVING SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE. AT THE
SURFACE...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH THE CWA...WITH NRLY WINDS USHERED IN BEHIND.  THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...WILL BE SEEING HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE W/NW...BRINGING DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS. A COOLER AIRMASS
ACCOMPANYING THIS HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A PRETTY
NICE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

CONTINUING THE LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS PRETTY LOW. NOT ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT...BUT A FEW CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CWA AS ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT...SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH IS LOOKING TO BE ZONAL ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CONUS ESP TUES AND WED...AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST IS LOWER DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...BUT SOME ARE
SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE SERN THIRD OR SO
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERS ARE DRY. AT THIS POINT AM KEEPING
THE DRY FORECAST GOING UNLESS THE REST OF THE MODELS TREND TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTION. AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A WRN CONUS
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...EXPECTING HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID
90S BY WEDNESDAY.

THAT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION LOOKS TO BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT
THE CWA...AND MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS JUST IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AT
THIS POINT...STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT DETAILS AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A SFC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE CHANCES
MAY BRING A COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHOULD
ALLEVIATE ONCE THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST THIS MORNING.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A THUNDERSHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH...POTENTIALLY FROM AFTERNOON
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z TO CONVEY THIS
CONFIDENCE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 311048
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WE ALSO COULD EASILY
GET CAPES OF OVER 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD REALLY START BLOWING UP
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 50 KTS...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN
THE AREA. THE MORE SUN WE GET EARLY ON...THE MORE SEVERE WEATHER WE
WILL WIND UP WITH. THIS IS A SITUATION MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE...RATHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER...AS VERY LARGE HAIL
AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA AS THIS
COLD FRONT RAKES EAST. WE CAN ANTICIPATE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY MERGING INTO A LINEAR SQUALL LINE.

THE WEAK MORNING CONVECTION THIS MORNING CONCENTRATED MORE IN OUR
SOUTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY WANE AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

I LIKE THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WE SHOULD REALLY HEAT
UP RATHER WELL WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WOULD DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS WELL. WENT
WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE
INCREASED LIFT THE MAIN DISTURBANCE HAVING SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE. AT THE
SURFACE...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH THE CWA...WITH NRLY WINDS USHERED IN BEHIND.  THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...WILL BE SEEING HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE W/NW...BRINGING DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS. A COOLER AIRMASS
ACCOMPANYING THIS HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A PRETTY
NICE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

CONTINUING THE LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS PRETTY LOW. NOT ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT...BUT A FEW CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CWA AS ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT...SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH IS LOOKING TO BE ZONAL ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CONUS ESP TUES AND WED...AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST IS LOWER DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...BUT SOME ARE
SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE SERN THIRD OR SO
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERS ARE DRY. AT THIS POINT AM KEEPING
THE DRY FORECAST GOING UNLESS THE REST OF THE MODELS TREND TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTION. AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A WRN CONUS
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...EXPECTING HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID
90S BY WEDNESDAY.

THAT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION LOOKS TO BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT
THE CWA...AND MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS JUST IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AT
THIS POINT...STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT DETAILS AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A SFC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE CHANCES
MAY BRING A COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHOULD
ALLEVIATE ONCE THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST THIS MORNING.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A THUNDERSHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH...POTENTIALLY FROM AFTERNOON
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z TO CONVEY THIS
CONFIDENCE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 311048
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WE ALSO COULD EASILY
GET CAPES OF OVER 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD REALLY START BLOWING UP
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 50 KTS...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN
THE AREA. THE MORE SUN WE GET EARLY ON...THE MORE SEVERE WEATHER WE
WILL WIND UP WITH. THIS IS A SITUATION MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE...RATHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER...AS VERY LARGE HAIL
AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA AS THIS
COLD FRONT RAKES EAST. WE CAN ANTICIPATE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY MERGING INTO A LINEAR SQUALL LINE.

THE WEAK MORNING CONVECTION THIS MORNING CONCENTRATED MORE IN OUR
SOUTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY WANE AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

I LIKE THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WE SHOULD REALLY HEAT
UP RATHER WELL WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WOULD DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS WELL. WENT
WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE
INCREASED LIFT THE MAIN DISTURBANCE HAVING SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE. AT THE
SURFACE...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH THE CWA...WITH NRLY WINDS USHERED IN BEHIND.  THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...WILL BE SEEING HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE W/NW...BRINGING DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS. A COOLER AIRMASS
ACCOMPANYING THIS HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A PRETTY
NICE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

CONTINUING THE LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS PRETTY LOW. NOT ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT...BUT A FEW CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CWA AS ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT...SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH IS LOOKING TO BE ZONAL ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CONUS ESP TUES AND WED...AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST IS LOWER DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...BUT SOME ARE
SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE SERN THIRD OR SO
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERS ARE DRY. AT THIS POINT AM KEEPING
THE DRY FORECAST GOING UNLESS THE REST OF THE MODELS TREND TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTION. AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A WRN CONUS
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...EXPECTING HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID
90S BY WEDNESDAY.

THAT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION LOOKS TO BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT
THE CWA...AND MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS JUST IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AT
THIS POINT...STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT DETAILS AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A SFC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE CHANCES
MAY BRING A COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHOULD
ALLEVIATE ONCE THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST THIS MORNING.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A THUNDERSHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH...POTENTIALLY FROM AFTERNOON
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z TO CONVEY THIS
CONFIDENCE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 311048
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WE ALSO COULD EASILY
GET CAPES OF OVER 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD REALLY START BLOWING UP
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 50 KTS...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN
THE AREA. THE MORE SUN WE GET EARLY ON...THE MORE SEVERE WEATHER WE
WILL WIND UP WITH. THIS IS A SITUATION MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE...RATHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER...AS VERY LARGE HAIL
AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA AS THIS
COLD FRONT RAKES EAST. WE CAN ANTICIPATE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY MERGING INTO A LINEAR SQUALL LINE.

THE WEAK MORNING CONVECTION THIS MORNING CONCENTRATED MORE IN OUR
SOUTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY WANE AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

I LIKE THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WE SHOULD REALLY HEAT
UP RATHER WELL WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WOULD DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS WELL. WENT
WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE
INCREASED LIFT THE MAIN DISTURBANCE HAVING SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE. AT THE
SURFACE...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH THE CWA...WITH NRLY WINDS USHERED IN BEHIND.  THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...WILL BE SEEING HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE W/NW...BRINGING DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS. A COOLER AIRMASS
ACCOMPANYING THIS HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A PRETTY
NICE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

CONTINUING THE LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS PRETTY LOW. NOT ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT...BUT A FEW CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CWA AS ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT...SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH IS LOOKING TO BE ZONAL ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CONUS ESP TUES AND WED...AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST IS LOWER DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...BUT SOME ARE
SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE SERN THIRD OR SO
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERS ARE DRY. AT THIS POINT AM KEEPING
THE DRY FORECAST GOING UNLESS THE REST OF THE MODELS TREND TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTION. AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A WRN CONUS
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...EXPECTING HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID
90S BY WEDNESDAY.

THAT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION LOOKS TO BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT
THE CWA...AND MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS JUST IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AT
THIS POINT...STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT DETAILS AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A SFC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE CHANCES
MAY BRING A COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHOULD
ALLEVIATE ONCE THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST THIS MORNING.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A THUNDERSHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH...POTENTIALLY FROM AFTERNOON
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z TO CONVEY THIS
CONFIDENCE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 310945
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
445 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WE ALSO COULD EASILY
GET CAPES OF OVER 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD REALLY START BLOWING UP
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 50 KTS...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN
THE AREA. THE MORE SUN WE GET EARLY ON...THE MORE SEVERE WEATHER WE
WILL WIND UP WITH. THIS IS A SITUATION MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE...RATHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER...AS VERY LARGE HAIL
AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA AS THIS
COLD FRONT RAKES EAST. WE CAN ANTICIPATE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY MERGING INTO A LINEAR SQUALL LINE.

THE WEAK MORNING CONVECTION THIS MORNING CONCENTRATED MORE IN OUR
SOUTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY WANE AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

I LIKE THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WE SHOULD REALLY HEAT
UP RATHER WELL WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WOULD DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS WELL. WENT
WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE
INCREASED LIFT THE MAIN DISTURBANCE HAVING SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE. AT THE
SURFACE...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH THE CWA...WITH NRLY WINDS USHERED IN BEHIND.  THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...WILL BE SEEING HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE W/NW...BRINGING DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS. A COOLER AIRMASS
ACCOMPANYING THIS HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A PRETTY
NICE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

CONTINUING THE LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS PRETTY LOW. NOT ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT...BUT A FEW CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CWA AS ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT...SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH IS LOOKING TO BE ZONAL ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CONUS ESP TUES AND WED...AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST IS LOWER DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...BUT SOME ARE
SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE SERN THIRD OR SO
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERS ARE DRY. AT THIS POINT AM KEEPING
THE DRY FORECAST GOING UNLESS THE REST OF THE MODELS TREND TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTION. AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A WRN CONUS
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...EXPECTING HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID
90S BY WEDNESDAY.

THAT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION LOOKS TO BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT
THE CWA...AND MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS JUST IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AT
THIS POINT...STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT DETAILS AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A SFC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE CHANCES
MAY BRING A COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHOULD
ALLEVIATE ONCE THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE SHOT AT A THUNDERSHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH...POTENTIALLY FROM AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z TO CONVEY THIS CONFIDENCE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 310945
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
445 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ADVANCES EAST AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WE ALSO COULD EASILY
GET CAPES OF OVER 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD REALLY START BLOWING UP
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE RANGE OF 50 TO 50 KTS...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN
THE AREA. THE MORE SUN WE GET EARLY ON...THE MORE SEVERE WEATHER WE
WILL WIND UP WITH. THIS IS A SITUATION MORE TYPICAL OF JUNE...RATHER
THAN THE DAY BEFORE THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER...AS VERY LARGE HAIL
AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA AS THIS
COLD FRONT RAKES EAST. WE CAN ANTICIPATE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY MERGING INTO A LINEAR SQUALL LINE.

THE WEAK MORNING CONVECTION THIS MORNING CONCENTRATED MORE IN OUR
SOUTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY WANE AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

I LIKE THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WE SHOULD REALLY HEAT
UP RATHER WELL WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WOULD DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AS WELL. WENT
WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS CANADA. EXPECTING DRY
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE
INCREASED LIFT THE MAIN DISTURBANCE HAVING SHIFTED JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE. AT THE
SURFACE...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH THE CWA...WITH NRLY WINDS USHERED IN BEHIND.  THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...WILL BE SEEING HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE W/NW...BRINGING DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS. A COOLER AIRMASS
ACCOMPANYING THIS HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A PRETTY
NICE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

CONTINUING THE LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS PRETTY LOW. NOT ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT...BUT A FEW CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CWA AS ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS
POINT...SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WHICH IS LOOKING TO BE ZONAL ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE CONUS ESP TUES AND WED...AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE SRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST IS LOWER DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS...BUT SOME ARE
SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE SERN THIRD OR SO
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERS ARE DRY. AT THIS POINT AM KEEPING
THE DRY FORECAST GOING UNLESS THE REST OF THE MODELS TREND TOWARD
THE WETTER SOLUTION. AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A WRN CONUS
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...EXPECTING HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER/MID
90S BY WEDNESDAY.

THAT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION LOOKS TO BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT
THE CWA...AND MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS JUST IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AT
THIS POINT...STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT DETAILS AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A SFC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE CHANCES
MAY BRING A COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHOULD
ALLEVIATE ONCE THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE SHOT AT A THUNDERSHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH...POTENTIALLY FROM AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z TO CONVEY THIS CONFIDENCE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 310840
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORS...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 310840
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORS...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 310840
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORS...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 310840
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TSTMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS. WE WILL
MAY ALSO NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT LATER TODAY.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING HAD THE FOLLOWING MAIN FEATURES
OF INTEREST. AT 300 MB A JET SEGMENT OF AROUND 105 KNOTS WAS NEAR
THE CA/OR BORDER AND ANOTHER WAS JUST OFF SHORE. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS WERE NOTED AT 500 MB WITHIN THE TROUGH
OVER THE URN AND CONTROL ROCKIES. RIDGE AT 700 MB STRETCHED FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. 700 MB AND
850 MB MOISTURE WAS A BIT LACKING IN THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z
KOAX SOUNDING ONLY HAVING 0.91 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY.
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY/MID AFTN IN NCTRL NE
AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN NE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN.
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY MAY BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY
NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 65-70
DEGREE RANGE WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD ML CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/GAG. MODELS FCST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS
MAY INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT DISCRETE THEN FORM INTO CLUSTERS AND/OR
LINEAR STRUCTURES DURING THE EVENING. TORNADO RISK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED NEAR ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...BUT THE LACK OF A
WARM FRONT IN OUR AREA MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE HIGHEST FROM 6 PM TO 2 AM. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 60S...COOLEST NORTHWEST/WARMEST SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI THROUGH SERN IA AND THEN
INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z MONDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER IN SERN NE AND
SWRN IA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY MOVING SEWD FROM THE DKTS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NERN NE MONDAY
NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING THERE IN THE EVENING AND SPREAD
THEM TO ALL OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE
AREA BUT SLIDE SEW DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND HELP PUSH HIGHS TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THINKING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THIS PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NRN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM CANADA TO NRN CA BY THURSDAY.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DECIDED TO KEEP ABOUT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW IN THOSE
PERIODS.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORS...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 310839
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION WHICH IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND
EVIDENT ON RADAR. MOST OF THE TSRA IS EAST OF THE KVTN AREA BUT
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. FURTHER SOUTH TSRA MAY STAY
NORTH OF KLBF BUT UNCERTAINTY HAS PROMPTED A VCTS GROUP THERE AS
SHRA LAGGING AND MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WITH LLJ IN PLACE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WOULD PASS THE AREA BY 09-10Z OR SO BUT
A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPPING SEWD FROM WRN SD MAY INTERACT
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS.

LATER TODAY...TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL
IN UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR KVTN AREA PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING AND THEREFORE BELIEVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
TSRA WILL BE IN THE KLBF TAF SITE AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE AREA THIS FAR WEST IS LACKING BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 310839
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION WHICH IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND
EVIDENT ON RADAR. MOST OF THE TSRA IS EAST OF THE KVTN AREA BUT
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. FURTHER SOUTH TSRA MAY STAY
NORTH OF KLBF BUT UNCERTAINTY HAS PROMPTED A VCTS GROUP THERE AS
SHRA LAGGING AND MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WITH LLJ IN PLACE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WOULD PASS THE AREA BY 09-10Z OR SO BUT
A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPPING SEWD FROM WRN SD MAY INTERACT
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS.

LATER TODAY...TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL
IN UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR KVTN AREA PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING AND THEREFORE BELIEVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
TSRA WILL BE IN THE KLBF TAF SITE AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE AREA THIS FAR WEST IS LACKING BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 310839
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION WHICH IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND
EVIDENT ON RADAR. MOST OF THE TSRA IS EAST OF THE KVTN AREA BUT
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. FURTHER SOUTH TSRA MAY STAY
NORTH OF KLBF BUT UNCERTAINTY HAS PROMPTED A VCTS GROUP THERE AS
SHRA LAGGING AND MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WITH LLJ IN PLACE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WOULD PASS THE AREA BY 09-10Z OR SO BUT
A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPPING SEWD FROM WRN SD MAY INTERACT
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS.

LATER TODAY...TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL
IN UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR KVTN AREA PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING AND THEREFORE BELIEVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
TSRA WILL BE IN THE KLBF TAF SITE AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE AREA THIS FAR WEST IS LACKING BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 310839
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION WHICH IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND
EVIDENT ON RADAR. MOST OF THE TSRA IS EAST OF THE KVTN AREA BUT
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. FURTHER SOUTH TSRA MAY STAY
NORTH OF KLBF BUT UNCERTAINTY HAS PROMPTED A VCTS GROUP THERE AS
SHRA LAGGING AND MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WITH LLJ IN PLACE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WOULD PASS THE AREA BY 09-10Z OR SO BUT
A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPPING SEWD FROM WRN SD MAY INTERACT
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS.

LATER TODAY...TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL
IN UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR KVTN AREA PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING AND THEREFORE BELIEVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
TSRA WILL BE IN THE KLBF TAF SITE AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE AREA THIS FAR WEST IS LACKING BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS









000
FXUS63 KGID 310651
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
151 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS LIGHT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS ARE TURNING
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 MPH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND MAYBE CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO AREA AND THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5000 J/KG. THE LATEST WRF
RUN HAS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND ALL
OF THE MODELS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TIMING
THE INITIAL ONSET HAS A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY...BUT LOOKS LIKE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND MUCH OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT
AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THERE WILL BE A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING IN THE
EAST. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST
THUS THE DRY WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST AS WELL AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEAST NEB...TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO CREATING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER OUR CWA ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG
DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE NW WINDS...DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A DRY LABOR DAY IS FORECAST DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST GFS DOES GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS IT BRINGS
ANOTHER WEEK WAVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
FEATURE BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS SLIGHT CHANCE GOING AND MAY
LEAVE THIS IN FOR NOW.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES ARE
SLATED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. COULD BE A WEAK PERTURBATION OR TWO
THAT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD PROVIDE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN
BUT NOTHING OF NOTE AT THIS TIME.  LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN BUILDING THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH WHILE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS PLACES US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND WITH ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT
LAYING OUT AND STALLING OVER THE AREA AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...EXPECT OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHOULD
ALLEVIATE ONCE THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE SHOT AT A THUNDERSHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH...POTENTIALLY FROM AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z TO CONVEY THIS CONFIDENCE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 310651
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
151 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS LIGHT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS ARE TURNING
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 MPH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND MAYBE CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO AREA AND THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5000 J/KG. THE LATEST WRF
RUN HAS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND ALL
OF THE MODELS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TIMING
THE INITIAL ONSET HAS A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY...BUT LOOKS LIKE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND MUCH OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT
AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THERE WILL BE A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING IN THE
EAST. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST
THUS THE DRY WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST AS WELL AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEAST NEB...TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO CREATING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER OUR CWA ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG
DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE NW WINDS...DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A DRY LABOR DAY IS FORECAST DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST GFS DOES GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS IT BRINGS
ANOTHER WEEK WAVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
FEATURE BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS SLIGHT CHANCE GOING AND MAY
LEAVE THIS IN FOR NOW.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES ARE
SLATED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. COULD BE A WEAK PERTURBATION OR TWO
THAT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD PROVIDE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN
BUT NOTHING OF NOTE AT THIS TIME.  LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN BUILDING THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH WHILE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS PLACES US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND WITH ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT
LAYING OUT AND STALLING OVER THE AREA AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...EXPECT OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHOULD
ALLEVIATE ONCE THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE SHOT AT A THUNDERSHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH...POTENTIALLY FROM AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z TO CONVEY THIS CONFIDENCE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 310540
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

CLOSER TO THE SANDHILLS REGION SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES OVER
THE CWA WERE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. A LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY AND THE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND
TRACK EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF A COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF A LBF TO ANW LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
STOUT EML WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPED TO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8 C/KM STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE UPON INITIATION
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORM UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.

WEST OF THE COLD FRONT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY SINCE
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY EVENING CAPES FROM 1500-2500
J/KG AVBL ABOVE 700MB. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HIGH AS 45-55
KTS...THIS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW AS A FAIRLY STRONG PV
ANOMALY THROUGH NERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AND
FAVOR THE SLOW NAM MODEL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WRN
NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RUNNING 20
TO 30 POPS NORTHEAST FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 NCTRL TO NEAR 85 SOUTHWEST.


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING NEAR 90. UPPER
FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND ALSO THE WEST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE THE FAST
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z THU...WHILE THE GFS SLOWEST
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO
SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST...WITH 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION WHICH IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND
EVIDENT ON RADAR. MOST OF THE TSRA IS EAST OF THE KVTN AREA BUT
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. FURTHER SOUTH TSRA MAY STAY
NORTH OF KLBF BUT UNCERTAINTY HAS PROMPTED A VCTS GROUP THERE AS
SHRA LAGGING AND MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WITH LLJ IN PLACE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WOULD PASS THE AREA BY 09-10Z OR SO BUT
A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPPING SEWD FROM WRN SD MAY INTERACT
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS.

LATER TODAY...TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL
IN UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR KVTN AREA PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING AND THEREFORE BELIEVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
TSRA WILL BE IN THE KLBF TAF SITE AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE AREA THIS FAR WEST IS LACKING BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JWS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 310540
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

CLOSER TO THE SANDHILLS REGION SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES OVER
THE CWA WERE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. A LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY AND THE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND
TRACK EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF A COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF A LBF TO ANW LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
STOUT EML WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPED TO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8 C/KM STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE UPON INITIATION
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORM UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.

WEST OF THE COLD FRONT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY SINCE
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY EVENING CAPES FROM 1500-2500
J/KG AVBL ABOVE 700MB. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HIGH AS 45-55
KTS...THIS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW AS A FAIRLY STRONG PV
ANOMALY THROUGH NERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AND
FAVOR THE SLOW NAM MODEL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WRN
NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RUNNING 20
TO 30 POPS NORTHEAST FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 NCTRL TO NEAR 85 SOUTHWEST.


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING NEAR 90. UPPER
FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND ALSO THE WEST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE THE FAST
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z THU...WHILE THE GFS SLOWEST
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO
SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST...WITH 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION WHICH IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND
EVIDENT ON RADAR. MOST OF THE TSRA IS EAST OF THE KVTN AREA BUT
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. FURTHER SOUTH TSRA MAY STAY
NORTH OF KLBF BUT UNCERTAINTY HAS PROMPTED A VCTS GROUP THERE AS
SHRA LAGGING AND MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WITH LLJ IN PLACE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WOULD PASS THE AREA BY 09-10Z OR SO BUT
A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPPING SEWD FROM WRN SD MAY INTERACT
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS.

LATER TODAY...TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL
IN UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR KVTN AREA PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING AND THEREFORE BELIEVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
TSRA WILL BE IN THE KLBF TAF SITE AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE AREA THIS FAR WEST IS LACKING BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JWS







000
FXUS63 KOAX 310447
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 310447
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY 09Z TO 15Z AT
ALL TAF SITES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP TO 40 TO
50KT RANGE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO FIRE ALONG THAT FRONT AFTER 21Z...MOST LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KOFK AREA. STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH KOMA AND
KLNK TAF SITES AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KGID 302346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
646 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS LIGHT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS ARE TURNING
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 MPH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND MAYBE CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO AREA AND THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5000 J/KG. THE LATEST WRF
RUN HAS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND ALL
OF THE MODELS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TIMING
THE INITIAL ONSET HAS A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY...BUT LOOKS LIKE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND MUCH OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT
AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THERE WILL BE A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING IN THE
EAST. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST
THUS THE DRY WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST AS WELL AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEAST NEB...TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO CREATING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER OUR CWA ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG
DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE NW WINDS...DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A DRY LABOR DAY IS FORECAST DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST GFS DOES GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS IT BRINGS
ANOTHER WEEK WAVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
FEATURE BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS SLIGHT CHANCE GOING AND MAY
LEAVE THIS IN FOR NOW.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES ARE
SLATED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. COULD BE A WEAK PERTURBATION OR TWO
THAT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD PROVIDE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN
BUT NOTHING OF NOTE AT THIS TIME.  LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN BUILDING THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH WHILE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS PLACES US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND WITH ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT
LAYING OUT AND STALLING OVER THE AREA AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...EXPECT OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE
IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.

A SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT THE APPROACH OF A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~45KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN BOTH TAFS 05-14Z. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF
SITES 09-23Z...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY
BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH
TAF SITES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING AT 23Z SUNDAY AND
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH VCTS STARTING AT 23Z IN BOTH TAFS.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST AT EITHER TAF
SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 302346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
646 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS LIGHT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS ARE TURNING
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 MPH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND MAYBE CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO AREA AND THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5000 J/KG. THE LATEST WRF
RUN HAS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND ALL
OF THE MODELS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TIMING
THE INITIAL ONSET HAS A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY...BUT LOOKS LIKE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND MUCH OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT
AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THERE WILL BE A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING IN THE
EAST. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST
THUS THE DRY WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST AS WELL AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEAST NEB...TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO CREATING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER OUR CWA ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG
DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE NW WINDS...DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A DRY LABOR DAY IS FORECAST DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST GFS DOES GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS IT BRINGS
ANOTHER WEEK WAVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
FEATURE BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS SLIGHT CHANCE GOING AND MAY
LEAVE THIS IN FOR NOW.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES ARE
SLATED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. COULD BE A WEAK PERTURBATION OR TWO
THAT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD PROVIDE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN
BUT NOTHING OF NOTE AT THIS TIME.  LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN BUILDING THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH WHILE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS PLACES US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND WITH ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT
LAYING OUT AND STALLING OVER THE AREA AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...EXPECT OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE
IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.

A SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT THE APPROACH OF A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~45KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN BOTH TAFS 05-14Z. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF
SITES 09-23Z...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY
BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH
TAF SITES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING AT 23Z SUNDAY AND
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH VCTS STARTING AT 23Z IN BOTH TAFS.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST AT EITHER TAF
SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 302346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
646 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS LIGHT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS ARE TURNING
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 MPH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND MAYBE CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO AREA AND THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5000 J/KG. THE LATEST WRF
RUN HAS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND ALL
OF THE MODELS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TIMING
THE INITIAL ONSET HAS A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY...BUT LOOKS LIKE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND MUCH OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT
AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THERE WILL BE A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING IN THE
EAST. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST
THUS THE DRY WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST AS WELL AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEAST NEB...TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO CREATING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER OUR CWA ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG
DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE NW WINDS...DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A DRY LABOR DAY IS FORECAST DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST GFS DOES GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS IT BRINGS
ANOTHER WEEK WAVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
FEATURE BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS SLIGHT CHANCE GOING AND MAY
LEAVE THIS IN FOR NOW.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES ARE
SLATED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. COULD BE A WEAK PERTURBATION OR TWO
THAT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD PROVIDE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN
BUT NOTHING OF NOTE AT THIS TIME.  LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN BUILDING THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH WHILE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS PLACES US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND WITH ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT
LAYING OUT AND STALLING OVER THE AREA AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...EXPECT OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE
IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.

A SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT THE APPROACH OF A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~45KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN BOTH TAFS 05-14Z. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF
SITES 09-23Z...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY
BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH
TAF SITES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING AT 23Z SUNDAY AND
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH VCTS STARTING AT 23Z IN BOTH TAFS.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST AT EITHER TAF
SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 302346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
646 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS LIGHT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS ARE TURNING
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 MPH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND MAYBE CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO AREA AND THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5000 J/KG. THE LATEST WRF
RUN HAS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND ALL
OF THE MODELS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TIMING
THE INITIAL ONSET HAS A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY...BUT LOOKS LIKE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND MUCH OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT
AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THERE WILL BE A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING IN THE
EAST. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST
THUS THE DRY WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST AS WELL AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEAST NEB...TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO CREATING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER OUR CWA ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG
DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE NW WINDS...DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A DRY LABOR DAY IS FORECAST DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST GFS DOES GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS IT BRINGS
ANOTHER WEEK WAVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
FEATURE BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS SLIGHT CHANCE GOING AND MAY
LEAVE THIS IN FOR NOW.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES ARE
SLATED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. COULD BE A WEAK PERTURBATION OR TWO
THAT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD PROVIDE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN
BUT NOTHING OF NOTE AT THIS TIME.  LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN BUILDING THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH WHILE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS PLACES US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND WITH ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT
LAYING OUT AND STALLING OVER THE AREA AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...EXPECT OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE
IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.

A SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT THE APPROACH OF A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~45KT JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN BOTH TAFS 05-14Z. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF
SITES 09-23Z...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY
BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH
TAF SITES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING AT 23Z SUNDAY AND
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH VCTS STARTING AT 23Z IN BOTH TAFS.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST AT EITHER TAF
SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302338
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AFTER 06Z COULD DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KOFK. THEN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOSE TO TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 302338
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AFTER 06Z COULD DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KOFK. THEN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOSE TO TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 302338
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AFTER 06Z COULD DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KOFK. THEN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOSE TO TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 302338
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AFTER 06Z COULD DRIFT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KOFK. THEN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOSE TO TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 302309
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
609 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

CLOSER TO THE SANDHILLS REGION SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES OVER
THE CWA WERE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. A LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY AND THE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND
TRACK EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF A COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF A LBF TO ANW LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
STOUT EML WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPED TO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8 C/KM STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE UPON INITIATION
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORM UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.

WEST OF THE COLD FRONT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY SINCE
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY EVENING CAPES FROM 1500-2500
J/KG AVBL ABOVE 700MB. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HIGH AS 45-55
KTS...THIS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW AS A FAIRLY STRONG PV
ANOMALY THROUGH NERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AND
FAVOR THE SLOW NAM MODEL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WRN
NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RUNNING 20
TO 30 POPS NORTHEAST FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 NCTRL TO NEAR 85 SOUTHWEST.


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING NEAR 90. UPPER
FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND ALSO THE WEST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE THE FAST
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z THU...WHILE THE GFS SLOWEST
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO
SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST...WITH 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WITH A SURFACE FRONT STALLED ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING AND AN UPPER SYSTEM COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
NEBRASKA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA IS LIMITED...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE SOME THIS EVENING
WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT APPEARS
THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND TS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED
IN THE FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CEILING
AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 302309
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
609 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

CLOSER TO THE SANDHILLS REGION SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES OVER
THE CWA WERE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. A LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY AND THE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND
TRACK EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF A COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF A LBF TO ANW LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
STOUT EML WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPED TO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8 C/KM STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE UPON INITIATION
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORM UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.

WEST OF THE COLD FRONT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY SINCE
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY EVENING CAPES FROM 1500-2500
J/KG AVBL ABOVE 700MB. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HIGH AS 45-55
KTS...THIS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW AS A FAIRLY STRONG PV
ANOMALY THROUGH NERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AND
FAVOR THE SLOW NAM MODEL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WRN
NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RUNNING 20
TO 30 POPS NORTHEAST FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 NCTRL TO NEAR 85 SOUTHWEST.


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING NEAR 90. UPPER
FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND ALSO THE WEST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE THE FAST
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z THU...WHILE THE GFS SLOWEST
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO
SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST...WITH 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WITH A SURFACE FRONT STALLED ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING AND AN UPPER SYSTEM COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
NEBRASKA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA IS LIMITED...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE SOME THIS EVENING
WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT APPEARS
THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND TS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED
IN THE FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CEILING
AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 302046
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

CLOSER TO THE SANDHILLS REGION SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES OVER
THE CWA WERE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. A LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY AND THE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND
TRACK EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF A COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF A LBF TO ANW LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
STOUT EML WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPED TO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8 C/KM STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE UPON INITIATION
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORM UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.

WEST OF THE COLD FRONT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY SINCE
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY EVENING CAPES FROM 1500-2500
J/KG AVBL ABOVE 700MB. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HIGH AS 45-55
KTS...THIS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW AS A FAIRLY STRONG PV
ANOMALY THROUGH NERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AND
FAVOR THE SLOW NAM MODEL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WRN
NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RUNNING 20
TO 30 POPS NORTHEAST FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 NCTRL TO NEAR 85 SOUTHWEST.


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING NEAR 90. UPPER
FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND ALSO THE WEST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE THE FAST
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z THU...WHILE THE GFS SLOWEST
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO
SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST...WITH 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER
LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DO NOT
WARRANT ANY MENTION OF -TS RA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...SWITCHING THE
WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MARTIN










000
FXUS63 KLBF 302046
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

CLOSER TO THE SANDHILLS REGION SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES OVER
THE CWA WERE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. A LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY AND THE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND
TRACK EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF A COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF A LBF TO ANW LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
STOUT EML WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPED TO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8 C/KM STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE UPON INITIATION
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORM UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.

WEST OF THE COLD FRONT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY SINCE
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY EVENING CAPES FROM 1500-2500
J/KG AVBL ABOVE 700MB. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HIGH AS 45-55
KTS...THIS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW AS A FAIRLY STRONG PV
ANOMALY THROUGH NERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AND
FAVOR THE SLOW NAM MODEL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WRN
NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RUNNING 20
TO 30 POPS NORTHEAST FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 NCTRL TO NEAR 85 SOUTHWEST.


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING NEAR 90. UPPER
FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND ALSO THE WEST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE THE FAST
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z THU...WHILE THE GFS SLOWEST
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO
SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST...WITH 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER
LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DO NOT
WARRANT ANY MENTION OF -TS RA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...SWITCHING THE
WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MARTIN










000
FXUS63 KLBF 302046
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

CLOSER TO THE SANDHILLS REGION SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES OVER
THE CWA WERE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. A LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY AND THE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND
TRACK EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF A COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF A LBF TO ANW LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
STOUT EML WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPED TO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8 C/KM STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE UPON INITIATION
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORM UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.

WEST OF THE COLD FRONT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY SINCE
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY EVENING CAPES FROM 1500-2500
J/KG AVBL ABOVE 700MB. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HIGH AS 45-55
KTS...THIS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW AS A FAIRLY STRONG PV
ANOMALY THROUGH NERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AND
FAVOR THE SLOW NAM MODEL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WRN
NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RUNNING 20
TO 30 POPS NORTHEAST FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 NCTRL TO NEAR 85 SOUTHWEST.


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING NEAR 90. UPPER
FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND ALSO THE WEST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE THE FAST
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z THU...WHILE THE GFS SLOWEST
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO
SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST...WITH 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER
LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DO NOT
WARRANT ANY MENTION OF -TS RA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...SWITCHING THE
WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MARTIN










000
FXUS63 KLBF 302046
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

CLOSER TO THE SANDHILLS REGION SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES OVER
THE CWA WERE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. A LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY AND THE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND
TRACK EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF A COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF A LBF TO ANW LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
STOUT EML WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPED TO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8 C/KM STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE UPON INITIATION
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORM UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.

WEST OF THE COLD FRONT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY SINCE
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY EVENING CAPES FROM 1500-2500
J/KG AVBL ABOVE 700MB. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HIGH AS 45-55
KTS...THIS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW AS A FAIRLY STRONG PV
ANOMALY THROUGH NERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AND
FAVOR THE SLOW NAM MODEL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WRN
NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RUNNING 20
TO 30 POPS NORTHEAST FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 NCTRL TO NEAR 85 SOUTHWEST.


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING NEAR 90. UPPER
FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND ALSO THE WEST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE THE FAST
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z THU...WHILE THE GFS SLOWEST
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO
SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST...WITH 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER
LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DO NOT
WARRANT ANY MENTION OF -TS RA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...SWITCHING THE
WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MARTIN










000
FXUS63 KGID 302022
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH
IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS ARE TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
STILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SHOULD BE AROUND 10 MPH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MAYBE CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THESE STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE AND THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO AREA AND THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5000 J/KG. THE LATEST WRF
RUN HAS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND ALL
OF THE MODELS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TIMING
THE INITIAL ONSET HAS A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY...BUT LOOKS LIKE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND MUCH OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT
AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THERE WILL BE A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING IN THE
EAST. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST
THUS THE DRY WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST AS WELL AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEAST NEB...TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO CREATING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER OUR CWA ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG
DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE NW WINDS...DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A DRY LABOR DAY IS FORECAST DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST GFS DOES GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS IT BRINGS
ANOTHER WEEK WAVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
FEATURE BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS SLIGHT CHANCE GOING AND MAY
LEAVE THIS IN FOR NOW.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES ARE
SLATED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. COULD BE A WEAK PERTURBATION OR TWO
THAT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD PROVIDE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN
BUT NOTHING OF NOTE AT THIS TIME.  LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN BUILDING THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH WHILE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS PLACES US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND WITH ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT
LAYING OUT AND STALLING OVER THE AREA AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...EXPECT OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD...BUT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 302022
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH
IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS ARE TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
STILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SHOULD BE AROUND 10 MPH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MAYBE CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THESE STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE AND THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO AREA AND THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5000 J/KG. THE LATEST WRF
RUN HAS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND ALL
OF THE MODELS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TIMING
THE INITIAL ONSET HAS A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY...BUT LOOKS LIKE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND MUCH OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT
AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THERE WILL BE A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING IN THE
EAST. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST
THUS THE DRY WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST AS WELL AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEAST NEB...TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO CREATING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER OUR CWA ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG
DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE NW WINDS...DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A DRY LABOR DAY IS FORECAST DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST GFS DOES GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS IT BRINGS
ANOTHER WEEK WAVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
FEATURE BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS SLIGHT CHANCE GOING AND MAY
LEAVE THIS IN FOR NOW.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES ARE
SLATED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. COULD BE A WEAK PERTURBATION OR TWO
THAT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD PROVIDE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN
BUT NOTHING OF NOTE AT THIS TIME.  LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN BUILDING THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH WHILE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS PLACES US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND WITH ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT
LAYING OUT AND STALLING OVER THE AREA AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...EXPECT OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD...BUT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 302022
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH
IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS ARE TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
STILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SHOULD BE AROUND 10 MPH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MAYBE CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THESE STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE AND THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO AREA AND THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5000 J/KG. THE LATEST WRF
RUN HAS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND ALL
OF THE MODELS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TIMING
THE INITIAL ONSET HAS A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY...BUT LOOKS LIKE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND MUCH OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT
AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THERE WILL BE A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING IN THE
EAST. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST
THUS THE DRY WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST AS WELL AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEAST NEB...TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO CREATING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER OUR CWA ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG
DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE NW WINDS...DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A DRY LABOR DAY IS FORECAST DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST GFS DOES GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS IT BRINGS
ANOTHER WEEK WAVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
FEATURE BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS SLIGHT CHANCE GOING AND MAY
LEAVE THIS IN FOR NOW.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES ARE
SLATED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. COULD BE A WEAK PERTURBATION OR TWO
THAT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD PROVIDE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN
BUT NOTHING OF NOTE AT THIS TIME.  LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN BUILDING THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH WHILE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS PLACES US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND WITH ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT
LAYING OUT AND STALLING OVER THE AREA AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...EXPECT OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD...BUT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 302022
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH
IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS ARE TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
STILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SHOULD BE AROUND 10 MPH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MAYBE CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING THESE STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE AND THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO AREA AND THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5000 J/KG. THE LATEST WRF
RUN HAS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND ALL
OF THE MODELS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TIMING
THE INITIAL ONSET HAS A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY...BUT LOOKS LIKE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND MUCH OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT
AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THERE WILL BE A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING IN THE
EAST. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST
THUS THE DRY WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST AS WELL AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEAST NEB...TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO CREATING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER OUR CWA ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG
DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE NW WINDS...DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A DRY LABOR DAY IS FORECAST DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST GFS DOES GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS IT BRINGS
ANOTHER WEEK WAVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
FEATURE BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS SLIGHT CHANCE GOING AND MAY
LEAVE THIS IN FOR NOW.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES ARE
SLATED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. COULD BE A WEAK PERTURBATION OR TWO
THAT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD PROVIDE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN
BUT NOTHING OF NOTE AT THIS TIME.  LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN BUILDING THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH WHILE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS PLACES US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND WITH ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT
LAYING OUT AND STALLING OVER THE AREA AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...EXPECT OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD...BUT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KOAX 302008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS LAYER FINALLY BREAKING UP AT KOMA AT START OF FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 302008
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHORT TERM REMAINS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE ROCKIES TODAY PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 12Z UA INDICATING LARGE AREA OF 50M HGT FALLS
AT H5 FM OR/WA INTO MT. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH/S APPROACH
...LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE COULD KICK OFF MAINLY ISOLD/HIGH BASED TSTMS LATE. MODEL
TREND...SPCLY ECMWF...HAS BEEN TO EITHER DELAY SLIGHTLY OR MOSTLY
IGNORE. BUT SOME SMALL POPS STILL SEEMED WARRANTED...BUT THEY
WERE DELAYED JUST A BIT AND TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE SUNDAY MORNING.
LITTLE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT.

FALLING HEIGHTS AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD ERODE CAP
SUNDAY AFTN...THINKING 21Z ISH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
EXISTED ON WHERE MAIN INITIATION WOULD TAKE PLACE. EITHER NERN
NEBR/NW IA PER NAM OR ECNTRL NEB/SW IA PER ECMWF. GFS WAS MORE OF
A COMPROMISE. HOWEVER...JET AND FALLING HGTS COULD INCREASE
COVERAGE BEHIND MAIN INITIATION AREA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING...WHERE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS COULD ACT AS FOCUS ON WHERE HEAVIEST
PRECIP EVENTUALLY OCCURS. FOR THIS REASON NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED JUST YET...BUT HEAVY RAIN MENTION WILL BE CARRIED
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN ZONES IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HRS
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG FRONT
PER NAM...WITH A LITTLE LESS THAN THAT FROM GFS. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 40 KTS+ MOST AREAS...SEVERE THREAT ALSO
PERSISTS WITH HP SUPERCELLS A DECENT BET PER SWODY2.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING SWRLY SERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD SUSPECT
EVENTUAL COLD POOL COULD FORCE BULK OF MCS E OF FA BY DAYBREAK.

WITH TROUGHY NATURE TO UPPER FLOW ON LABOR DAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES AND COULD ALREADY GENERATE
AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WRN ZONES AT LEAST. IF TRENDS WOULD
PERSIST COULD FORESEE NEED TO INCLUDE PCPN IN LATER FORECASTS
LABOR DAY AFTN BUT FOR NOW LEFT IT DRY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
A LOT OF THE MOISTURE CLEARED OUT BY SUN EVENING/S MCS...ACTIVITY
COMING ACROSS THE FA WITH THE WAVE MON NGT SHOULD BE WEAKENING
WITH COVERAGE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH.  THUS ONLY SLGT CHC/LOW END
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. TUE APPEARS DRY FOR NOW. COOLER MAX
TEMPS FOR LABOR DAY/TUESDAY LOOKED GOOD WITH NO SIG CHANGES OR
VARIANCE FROM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS WERE KEPT DRY...SUPPORTED BY 12Z GFS
AND FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. A WARMING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE. IT
WAS NOTED HOWEVER THAT ECMWF WAS QUICKER IN DRIVING A FRONT INTO
FA THURSDAY AS WAVE TRACKS ACROSS SRN CANADA...ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP
WAS GENERATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. WHICH A CASE COULD BE MADE
WITH EARLIER DAY TIMING OF FRONT AND HIGH UPPER HGTS INITIALLY.
TSTM CHANCES THEN WERE MAINTAINED FRIDAY AND ADDED TO THE NEW DAY
7 AS FRONT LINGERS IN AREA AND/OR ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES TRACK
ACROSS PLAINS.

WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER/TSTM THREAT...AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD COOL AND A GENERAL MEX/ECE
BLEND WAS MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS LAYER FINALLY BREAKING UP AT KOMA AT START OF FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301816
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
116 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS LAYER FINALLY BREAKING UP AT KOMA AT START OF FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 301816
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
116 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRATUS LAYER FINALLY BREAKING UP AT KOMA AT START OF FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 301736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SW NEB THROUGH SUNRISE WHILE STRATUS CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ERN SD. RAP LOW LEVEL RH PROGS WOULD SUGGEST THE
STRATUS WILL SAG TO NEAR THE NIOBRARA VALLEY BY 12-15Z OR SO AND THE
HRRR HAS LOW CLOUDS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR
THAT. PREVIOUS FCST HAD MENTION OF FOG ALSO IN THE NERN ZONES AS A
RESULT OF PREVIOUS 24 HR RAINFALL AND BELIEVE THAT THIS WOULD ALSO
BE ALONG THE FRINGE OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH IS A TYPICAL EVOLUTION
ANYWAY. SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG AS IT WAS...MORE PATCHY TWD
THE SWRN PORTION OF THE AREA...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. ON THE LARGER SCALE...A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE NRN STREAM REMAINS
ACTIVE...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.
NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A LEAD PV
ANOMALY MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN SD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF SRLY WINDS AND
DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE /WHICH WILL BE RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE DAY/
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL EXIST. THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT RETREATS DURING THE DAY...BUT DEEP LAYER
LIFT DOES NOT LOOK EVIDENT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CREEP A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE...MOST
NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LEAD PV ANOMALY /WHICH IS BEST DEFINED INITIALLY
BY 30.00Z GFS/ WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE POSITION.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IS WEAK INITIALLY BUT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA WHICH WILL MOVE EWD SAT EVE...THOUGH
LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS SUGGESTED BY WRN FCST SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PLAINS NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPS THROUGH SAT EVE WHICH WILL ADVECT
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSRA INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA LATE EVE AND EARLY MORNING. NAM/GEM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS THOUGH HIRES CAMS ARE NOT SO EAGER TO DEVELOP
PRECIP. GRIDS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSRA MENTION...PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48 TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE PATTERN DOES SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR EAST OF A KLBF TO KANW LINE WHERE THERMAL
ADVECTION IS SHOWN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. THE GFS...NAM...AND EC ALL SHOW CONVECTION FIRING IN
THIS AREA...SO GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF NOT ONLY THE FINER
DETAILS BUT ALSO THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...FELT THAT CONFIDENCE
WAS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY/S INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EAST /EAST OF A MAYWOOD TO NAPER LINE/...WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS
/40-50%/ FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANW TO KLBF LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...SO STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY REMOVED OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 06Z MONDAY. SFC TD/S ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS OUR EAST AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEP
LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH PROMOTE SB POTENTIAL ENERGY
IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG...ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE ANTICIPATED. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE MODELS PEGGING UPWARDS OF 40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD QUICKLY
CONGEAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
BAND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND INTO THE
EVENING.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE
TIMING OF THE EXITING TROUGH...MOST NOTABLY...THE EC RETAINS A PIECE
OF ENERGY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT BRINGS IT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE EC GENERATES LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  THE GFS IN COMPARISON IS DRY AND LACKS
MUCH OF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THIS ADDITIONAL TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD AND SCALED BACK
POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
MENTION GOING.

BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY...THE CR ALLBLEND PROCEDURE PROJECTED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND THERE ARE NO ARGUMENTS
HERE AS AN OVERALL LACK OF OMEGA WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTS NORTH AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
CONUS.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING
OFF THIS SOLUTION A BIT...FOCUSING THE BEST POTENTIAL WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA.  WILL KEEP THE PROCEDURE UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VIOLENT TEMPERATURE CHANGES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO COME MID-WEEK...AS HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.  OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST DAYS.  LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S SEEM TO BE THE NORM
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER
LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DO NOT
WARRANT ANY MENTION OF -TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...SWITCHING THE
WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MARTIN






000
FXUS63 KLBF 301736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SW NEB THROUGH SUNRISE WHILE STRATUS CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ERN SD. RAP LOW LEVEL RH PROGS WOULD SUGGEST THE
STRATUS WILL SAG TO NEAR THE NIOBRARA VALLEY BY 12-15Z OR SO AND THE
HRRR HAS LOW CLOUDS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR
THAT. PREVIOUS FCST HAD MENTION OF FOG ALSO IN THE NERN ZONES AS A
RESULT OF PREVIOUS 24 HR RAINFALL AND BELIEVE THAT THIS WOULD ALSO
BE ALONG THE FRINGE OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH IS A TYPICAL EVOLUTION
ANYWAY. SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG AS IT WAS...MORE PATCHY TWD
THE SWRN PORTION OF THE AREA...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. ON THE LARGER SCALE...A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE NRN STREAM REMAINS
ACTIVE...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.
NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A LEAD PV
ANOMALY MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN SD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF SRLY WINDS AND
DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE /WHICH WILL BE RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE DAY/
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL EXIST. THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT RETREATS DURING THE DAY...BUT DEEP LAYER
LIFT DOES NOT LOOK EVIDENT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CREEP A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE...MOST
NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LEAD PV ANOMALY /WHICH IS BEST DEFINED INITIALLY
BY 30.00Z GFS/ WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE POSITION.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IS WEAK INITIALLY BUT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA WHICH WILL MOVE EWD SAT EVE...THOUGH
LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS SUGGESTED BY WRN FCST SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PLAINS NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPS THROUGH SAT EVE WHICH WILL ADVECT
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSRA INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA LATE EVE AND EARLY MORNING. NAM/GEM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS THOUGH HIRES CAMS ARE NOT SO EAGER TO DEVELOP
PRECIP. GRIDS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSRA MENTION...PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48 TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE PATTERN DOES SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR EAST OF A KLBF TO KANW LINE WHERE THERMAL
ADVECTION IS SHOWN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. THE GFS...NAM...AND EC ALL SHOW CONVECTION FIRING IN
THIS AREA...SO GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF NOT ONLY THE FINER
DETAILS BUT ALSO THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...FELT THAT CONFIDENCE
WAS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY/S INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EAST /EAST OF A MAYWOOD TO NAPER LINE/...WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS
/40-50%/ FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANW TO KLBF LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...SO STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY REMOVED OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 06Z MONDAY. SFC TD/S ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS OUR EAST AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEP
LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH PROMOTE SB POTENTIAL ENERGY
IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG...ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE ANTICIPATED. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE MODELS PEGGING UPWARDS OF 40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD QUICKLY
CONGEAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
BAND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND INTO THE
EVENING.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE
TIMING OF THE EXITING TROUGH...MOST NOTABLY...THE EC RETAINS A PIECE
OF ENERGY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT BRINGS IT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE EC GENERATES LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  THE GFS IN COMPARISON IS DRY AND LACKS
MUCH OF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THIS ADDITIONAL TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD AND SCALED BACK
POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
MENTION GOING.

BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY...THE CR ALLBLEND PROCEDURE PROJECTED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND THERE ARE NO ARGUMENTS
HERE AS AN OVERALL LACK OF OMEGA WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTS NORTH AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
CONUS.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING
OFF THIS SOLUTION A BIT...FOCUSING THE BEST POTENTIAL WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA.  WILL KEEP THE PROCEDURE UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VIOLENT TEMPERATURE CHANGES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO COME MID-WEEK...AS HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.  OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST DAYS.  LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S SEEM TO BE THE NORM
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER
LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DO NOT
WARRANT ANY MENTION OF -TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...SWITCHING THE
WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KGID 301725
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SHORT TERM IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. TODAY WE WILL BE IN
A REGION OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP US DRY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH IS STILL STATIONARY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. WE COULD GET SOME PATCHY FOG NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING AS RECENT RAIN OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND CALM WIND ALONG WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NOT MUCH
REDUCTION AND VISIBILITY HAS OCCURRED YET...BUT COULD VERY WELL DO
SO TOWARD SUNRISE.

AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES...THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENTER OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT AND BRING IN SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION TYPE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WEAK AS WELL. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY.

I KEPT SATURDAY HIGHS AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...LEANING MORE TOWARD CONSRAW FOR LOWS SATURDAY
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

EXPECTING AN ACTIVE PATTERN RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING TO SEE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...AS A TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE CWA IS PRIMARILY
INFLUENCED BY A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. KEPT THE INHERITED SMALL POPS
GOING DURING THE MORNING...WHILE MODELS ARENT IT TOTAL
AGREEMENT...SOME STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...THANKS TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND TO INCREASED LIFT
VIA A STRONGER LLJ IN PLACE.

SHOULD ACTIVITY AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING IT TO BE SEVERE...AND EXPECT IT TO SHIFT EAST AND TAPER
OFF WITH TIME AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. THINKING THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE LENGTH OF THE BREAK DEPENDS ON THE MODEL.
VARY FROM THINGS HOLDING OFF WELL INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
THANKS AT LEAST IN PART TO WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS HELPING KEEP
THINGS CAPPED...WHILE OTHERS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THINGS TO FIRE A
LITTLE SOONER DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS AND ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY IN
FROM THE WEST.  DECIDED TO KEEP THE 20-30 POPS GOING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...THEN RAMPING THEM UP INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE PRIOR
TO 00Z. CONTINUED THE THINKING IN THE GRIDS THAT THE BEST CHANCES
WILL COME DURING THE EVENING HOURS POST-00Z...AND THE LIKELY POPS
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM PASSAGE...AND HAVE
POPS TAPERING BACK QUICKLY 06-12Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY.

HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THINKING IN REGARD TO
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AND THE CWA REMAINS IN THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK AREA FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE STARTING TO JUST CREEP INTO FAR NW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...AND NOT NECESSARILY MAKING A NOTABLE EASTWARD SHIFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...IT MAKES MORE PROGRESS WITH THE BETTER PUSH
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPS IN THE 80S/LOWER 90S
EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING INSTABILITY NOT BEING MUCH OF A CONCERN ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...WITH SOME /MAINLY THE NAM/ SHOWING SOME
HEFTY MUCAPE VALUES...AND SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS BETTER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN LATELY.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE TORNADIC THREAT...ESP FOR ANY STORMS THAT ARE MORE DISCRETE
BEFORE MORE OF A LINEAR MODE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SFC FRONT.

AS MENTIONED...THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE FORECAST FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
REMAINS A DRY ONE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE REGION
CONTINUING BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING...BUT THE BETTER LIFT HAS SHIFTED EAST. THE SFC COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED THE CWA TO THE E/SE NEAR SUNRISE...WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE DAY AND BRINGING DIMINISHING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. A COOLER AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING THAT HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER/MID 80S WITH DPTS IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST.  KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY THE ECMWF
/TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM/ STILL SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
WAVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN ITS
OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH. OTHERWISE...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL POPS RETURNING THUR NIGHT/FRIDAY.
TEMPS LOOK TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 80S/90S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD...BUT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 301725
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SHORT TERM IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. TODAY WE WILL BE IN
A REGION OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP US DRY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH IS STILL STATIONARY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. WE COULD GET SOME PATCHY FOG NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING AS RECENT RAIN OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND CALM WIND ALONG WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NOT MUCH
REDUCTION AND VISIBILITY HAS OCCURRED YET...BUT COULD VERY WELL DO
SO TOWARD SUNRISE.

AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES...THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENTER OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT AND BRING IN SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION TYPE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WEAK AS WELL. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY.

I KEPT SATURDAY HIGHS AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...LEANING MORE TOWARD CONSRAW FOR LOWS SATURDAY
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

EXPECTING AN ACTIVE PATTERN RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING TO SEE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...AS A TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE CWA IS PRIMARILY
INFLUENCED BY A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. KEPT THE INHERITED SMALL POPS
GOING DURING THE MORNING...WHILE MODELS ARENT IT TOTAL
AGREEMENT...SOME STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...THANKS TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND TO INCREASED LIFT
VIA A STRONGER LLJ IN PLACE.

SHOULD ACTIVITY AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING IT TO BE SEVERE...AND EXPECT IT TO SHIFT EAST AND TAPER
OFF WITH TIME AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. THINKING THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE LENGTH OF THE BREAK DEPENDS ON THE MODEL.
VARY FROM THINGS HOLDING OFF WELL INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
THANKS AT LEAST IN PART TO WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS HELPING KEEP
THINGS CAPPED...WHILE OTHERS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THINGS TO FIRE A
LITTLE SOONER DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS AND ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY IN
FROM THE WEST.  DECIDED TO KEEP THE 20-30 POPS GOING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...THEN RAMPING THEM UP INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE PRIOR
TO 00Z. CONTINUED THE THINKING IN THE GRIDS THAT THE BEST CHANCES
WILL COME DURING THE EVENING HOURS POST-00Z...AND THE LIKELY POPS
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM PASSAGE...AND HAVE
POPS TAPERING BACK QUICKLY 06-12Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY.

HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THINKING IN REGARD TO
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AND THE CWA REMAINS IN THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK AREA FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE STARTING TO JUST CREEP INTO FAR NW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...AND NOT NECESSARILY MAKING A NOTABLE EASTWARD SHIFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...IT MAKES MORE PROGRESS WITH THE BETTER PUSH
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPS IN THE 80S/LOWER 90S
EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING INSTABILITY NOT BEING MUCH OF A CONCERN ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...WITH SOME /MAINLY THE NAM/ SHOWING SOME
HEFTY MUCAPE VALUES...AND SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS BETTER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN LATELY.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE TORNADIC THREAT...ESP FOR ANY STORMS THAT ARE MORE DISCRETE
BEFORE MORE OF A LINEAR MODE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SFC FRONT.

AS MENTIONED...THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE FORECAST FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
REMAINS A DRY ONE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE REGION
CONTINUING BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING...BUT THE BETTER LIFT HAS SHIFTED EAST. THE SFC COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED THE CWA TO THE E/SE NEAR SUNRISE...WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE DAY AND BRINGING DIMINISHING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. A COOLER AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING THAT HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER/MID 80S WITH DPTS IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST.  KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY THE ECMWF
/TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM/ STILL SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
WAVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN ITS
OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH. OTHERWISE...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL POPS RETURNING THUR NIGHT/FRIDAY.
TEMPS LOOK TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 80S/90S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD...BUT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...JCB




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