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000
FXUS63 KLBF 261158 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
658 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING AS SEEN ON KLNX 88D.
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS BREAKING UP TO THE WEST...FROM THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE IN THE RING OF FIRE. NEAR TERM MODELS HRR AND
WRF...LINGER RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
MORNING. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS VALENTINE TO BURWELL AND
EAST BUT AM NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO LOOKING AT
EASTWARD TREND ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 80S. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SANDHILLS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE WAS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
COOL YESTERDAY. COOL FRONT TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RING OF
FIRE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER
NIGHT. HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AT 12Z SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PLACING THE LOW
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE TROUGH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WHICH FURTHER AMPLIFIES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST BUILDS THROUGH
MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS PARTICULAR UPPER LOW THEN
GETS INGESTED INTO THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC.
MODELS STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH COOLER
AIR TO THE EAST AND HOT AIR TO THE WEST THE PLAINS WILL AREA
BISECTING THESE AIR-MASSES AND COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES VARYING
BY DAY AS MINOR SHIFTS IN THE PATTERN MAY ADJUST THE LOCATIONS OF
THE WARMER VERSUS COOLER AIR.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AT 850MB RANGING FROM 15C TO 22C ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WHICH LEADS TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. THESE NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO AIR-
MASSES...KEEPING THE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WELL TO THE
EAST AND THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WON/T BE INCREDIBLY DRY SO
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO STAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE LOWS WILL BE NEAR THE NORMAL VALUES OF UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

THE BIGGER QUESTION OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE
ARE MANY DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...IF USING A BLEND OF THE
MODELS...WOULD GET A FORECAST LITTERED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH EACH PERIOD. THERE IS CONCERN THAT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST
AS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHILE SHORTWAVES ADVANCING OVER THE RIDGE
MAY TAKE A PATH WEST OF THE AREA...FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A DRY FORECAST
THROUGHOUT. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THAT OCCURRING THOUGH SO EVEN
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF BETTER CHANCES...FEEL THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST ONE OR TWO DAYS WITH A NEED FOR A MENTION FOR
RAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SO HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THOSE THREE DAYS RATHER
THAN ON EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD. SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 35 TO 45KTS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VALUES LESS
THAN 1K J/KG. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...DON/T ANTICIPATE SEVERE STORMS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KBUB. VLIFR
CONDITIONS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE MORNING. A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AND AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE. CLEARING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 261158 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
658 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING AS SEEN ON KLNX 88D.
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS BREAKING UP TO THE WEST...FROM THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE IN THE RING OF FIRE. NEAR TERM MODELS HRR AND
WRF...LINGER RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
MORNING. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS VALENTINE TO BURWELL AND
EAST BUT AM NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO LOOKING AT
EASTWARD TREND ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 80S. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SANDHILLS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE WAS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
COOL YESTERDAY. COOL FRONT TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RING OF
FIRE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER
NIGHT. HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AT 12Z SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PLACING THE LOW
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE TROUGH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WHICH FURTHER AMPLIFIES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST BUILDS THROUGH
MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS PARTICULAR UPPER LOW THEN
GETS INGESTED INTO THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC.
MODELS STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH COOLER
AIR TO THE EAST AND HOT AIR TO THE WEST THE PLAINS WILL AREA
BISECTING THESE AIR-MASSES AND COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES VARYING
BY DAY AS MINOR SHIFTS IN THE PATTERN MAY ADJUST THE LOCATIONS OF
THE WARMER VERSUS COOLER AIR.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AT 850MB RANGING FROM 15C TO 22C ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WHICH LEADS TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. THESE NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO AIR-
MASSES...KEEPING THE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WELL TO THE
EAST AND THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WON/T BE INCREDIBLY DRY SO
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO STAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE LOWS WILL BE NEAR THE NORMAL VALUES OF UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

THE BIGGER QUESTION OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE
ARE MANY DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...IF USING A BLEND OF THE
MODELS...WOULD GET A FORECAST LITTERED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH EACH PERIOD. THERE IS CONCERN THAT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST
AS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHILE SHORTWAVES ADVANCING OVER THE RIDGE
MAY TAKE A PATH WEST OF THE AREA...FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A DRY FORECAST
THROUGHOUT. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THAT OCCURRING THOUGH SO EVEN
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF BETTER CHANCES...FEEL THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST ONE OR TWO DAYS WITH A NEED FOR A MENTION FOR
RAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SO HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THOSE THREE DAYS RATHER
THAN ON EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD. SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 35 TO 45KTS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VALUES LESS
THAN 1K J/KG. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...DON/T ANTICIPATE SEVERE STORMS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KBUB. VLIFR
CONDITIONS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE MORNING. A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AND AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE. CLEARING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KOAX 261123
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
623 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WE EXPECT ONE MORE WARM/HOT DAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
DOMINATE THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES ARE STILL THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD.

PRIMARY FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...90 KNOT WINDS WERE NOTED FROM THE WY/MT
BORDER ACROSS NRN SD. AT 500 MB...A CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE A LOT LESS THAN WHAT
THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ONLY AROUND 40 METERS MAX JUST EAST OF THE
LOW. A BROAD RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE NM/TX
BORDER. VERY WARM AIR WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB WITH TEMPS OF
17 DEGREES C AT KLBF AND KOAX.

ISOLATED STORMS OCCURRED ABOVE THE CAP AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...
BUT COVERAGE WAS LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MEASURABLE PCPN DID
OCCUR AT KOFK. TWO TSTM COMPLEXES WERE NOTED AT 08Z...ONE OVER
CNTRL SD AND THE OTHER MOVING EWD ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER.

CONFIDENCE IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY...EVEN WITH MANY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
THE SD CONVECTION SHOULD TO DEVELOP SEWD TODAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND HEIGHTS DECREASE. THE KS STORMS
MAY ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SOME SUPPORT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE SPC DAY 1 OTLK SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A SLGT
RISK FOR PARTS OF SERN NE AND SWRN IA. THAT WOULD BE MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH.

SOME STORMS SHOULD END IN OUR SRN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS WELL...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IN CONTROL AND LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR PCPN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
MONDAY JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HEATING....SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THAT. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 80 TO 85.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE 500 MB PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
STRONG TROUGH FROM QUEBEC DOWN INTO THE ERN UNITED STATES AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING DOWN
IN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY SGFNT
SHORTWAVES AND 850 MB MOISTURE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW. SO...KEPT
PCPN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND MAINLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THESE CHANCES ARE ALSO MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD. NOTE...HAVE OPTED
TO REMOVE TEMPO GROUPS FROM TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. AT THIS POINT
SUSPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER ERN NEB THIS AFTN
ALONG SWD BOUND FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BE ISOLD IN NATURE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261123
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
623 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WE EXPECT ONE MORE WARM/HOT DAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
DOMINATE THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES ARE STILL THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD.

PRIMARY FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...90 KNOT WINDS WERE NOTED FROM THE WY/MT
BORDER ACROSS NRN SD. AT 500 MB...A CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE A LOT LESS THAN WHAT
THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ONLY AROUND 40 METERS MAX JUST EAST OF THE
LOW. A BROAD RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE NM/TX
BORDER. VERY WARM AIR WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB WITH TEMPS OF
17 DEGREES C AT KLBF AND KOAX.

ISOLATED STORMS OCCURRED ABOVE THE CAP AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...
BUT COVERAGE WAS LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MEASURABLE PCPN DID
OCCUR AT KOFK. TWO TSTM COMPLEXES WERE NOTED AT 08Z...ONE OVER
CNTRL SD AND THE OTHER MOVING EWD ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER.

CONFIDENCE IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY...EVEN WITH MANY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
THE SD CONVECTION SHOULD TO DEVELOP SEWD TODAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND HEIGHTS DECREASE. THE KS STORMS
MAY ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SOME SUPPORT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE SPC DAY 1 OTLK SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A SLGT
RISK FOR PARTS OF SERN NE AND SWRN IA. THAT WOULD BE MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH.

SOME STORMS SHOULD END IN OUR SRN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS WELL...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IN CONTROL AND LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR PCPN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
MONDAY JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HEATING....SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THAT. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 80 TO 85.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE 500 MB PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
STRONG TROUGH FROM QUEBEC DOWN INTO THE ERN UNITED STATES AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING DOWN
IN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY SGFNT
SHORTWAVES AND 850 MB MOISTURE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW. SO...KEPT
PCPN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND MAINLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THESE CHANCES ARE ALSO MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD. NOTE...HAVE OPTED
TO REMOVE TEMPO GROUPS FROM TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. AT THIS POINT
SUSPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER ERN NEB THIS AFTN
ALONG SWD BOUND FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BE ISOLD IN NATURE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261123
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
623 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WE EXPECT ONE MORE WARM/HOT DAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
DOMINATE THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES ARE STILL THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD.

PRIMARY FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...90 KNOT WINDS WERE NOTED FROM THE WY/MT
BORDER ACROSS NRN SD. AT 500 MB...A CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE A LOT LESS THAN WHAT
THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ONLY AROUND 40 METERS MAX JUST EAST OF THE
LOW. A BROAD RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE NM/TX
BORDER. VERY WARM AIR WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB WITH TEMPS OF
17 DEGREES C AT KLBF AND KOAX.

ISOLATED STORMS OCCURRED ABOVE THE CAP AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...
BUT COVERAGE WAS LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MEASURABLE PCPN DID
OCCUR AT KOFK. TWO TSTM COMPLEXES WERE NOTED AT 08Z...ONE OVER
CNTRL SD AND THE OTHER MOVING EWD ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER.

CONFIDENCE IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY...EVEN WITH MANY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
THE SD CONVECTION SHOULD TO DEVELOP SEWD TODAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND HEIGHTS DECREASE. THE KS STORMS
MAY ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SOME SUPPORT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE SPC DAY 1 OTLK SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A SLGT
RISK FOR PARTS OF SERN NE AND SWRN IA. THAT WOULD BE MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH.

SOME STORMS SHOULD END IN OUR SRN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS WELL...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IN CONTROL AND LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR PCPN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
MONDAY JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HEATING....SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THAT. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 80 TO 85.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE 500 MB PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
STRONG TROUGH FROM QUEBEC DOWN INTO THE ERN UNITED STATES AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING DOWN
IN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY SGFNT
SHORTWAVES AND 850 MB MOISTURE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW. SO...KEPT
PCPN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND MAINLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THESE CHANCES ARE ALSO MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD. NOTE...HAVE OPTED
TO REMOVE TEMPO GROUPS FROM TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. AT THIS POINT
SUSPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER ERN NEB THIS AFTN
ALONG SWD BOUND FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BE ISOLD IN NATURE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261123
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
623 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WE EXPECT ONE MORE WARM/HOT DAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
DOMINATE THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES ARE STILL THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD.

PRIMARY FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...90 KNOT WINDS WERE NOTED FROM THE WY/MT
BORDER ACROSS NRN SD. AT 500 MB...A CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE A LOT LESS THAN WHAT
THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ONLY AROUND 40 METERS MAX JUST EAST OF THE
LOW. A BROAD RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE NM/TX
BORDER. VERY WARM AIR WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB WITH TEMPS OF
17 DEGREES C AT KLBF AND KOAX.

ISOLATED STORMS OCCURRED ABOVE THE CAP AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...
BUT COVERAGE WAS LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MEASURABLE PCPN DID
OCCUR AT KOFK. TWO TSTM COMPLEXES WERE NOTED AT 08Z...ONE OVER
CNTRL SD AND THE OTHER MOVING EWD ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER.

CONFIDENCE IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY...EVEN WITH MANY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
THE SD CONVECTION SHOULD TO DEVELOP SEWD TODAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND HEIGHTS DECREASE. THE KS STORMS
MAY ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SOME SUPPORT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE SPC DAY 1 OTLK SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A SLGT
RISK FOR PARTS OF SERN NE AND SWRN IA. THAT WOULD BE MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH.

SOME STORMS SHOULD END IN OUR SRN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS WELL...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IN CONTROL AND LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR PCPN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
MONDAY JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HEATING....SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THAT. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 80 TO 85.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE 500 MB PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
STRONG TROUGH FROM QUEBEC DOWN INTO THE ERN UNITED STATES AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING DOWN
IN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY SGFNT
SHORTWAVES AND 850 MB MOISTURE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW. SO...KEPT
PCPN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND MAINLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THESE CHANCES ARE ALSO MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD. NOTE...HAVE OPTED
TO REMOVE TEMPO GROUPS FROM TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. AT THIS POINT
SUSPECT THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER ERN NEB THIS AFTN
ALONG SWD BOUND FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BE ISOLD IN NATURE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGID 261052 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
552 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND  EVENING.

SOME PATCHY FOG EXISTS THIS MORNING AS THE AIR IS QUITE SOUPY WITH
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ALSO THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BOTH SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GIVING US ONE MORE DAY OF HOT WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO GIVE US A HEALTHY CAP. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL HANG OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA TODAY...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL
EXACTLY WHERE IT IS AS IT WAS DISRUPTED FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
REMNANTS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MOIST DAY...ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
WAY SOUTH AND COULD HELP SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. A HEALTHY CAP IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
STALLED FRONT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE
SHOULD BE A PUSH OF DRIER AIR TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...HELPING
TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE NORTH...AND ULTIMATELY
INTRODUCE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WE WILL HAVE
ADEQUATE SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NORTH...BUT THE CAP WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO BUST COMPLETELY THROUGH. I WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. IF BY CHANCE A STORM BREAKS COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE CAP...THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

EXPECTING TO SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND SRN PLAINS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SLIDING SE FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF KS. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY...THE MAIN LOW CONTINUES PUSHING SE...AND
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY..AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA EXTENDS THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN CANADA. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL NOTABLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED EVEN AS WE GET INTO MON/MON NIGHT...AND THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES.  SUN AND MON BOTH LOOK TO BE PLEASANT DAYS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES THE
PRIMARY PLAYER IN THE SFC PATTERN. THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE DAY
ON SUN MAY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...BUT WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  BY
SUN EVENING THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...BUT BY MON EVENING HAS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN...AND
AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS WELL INTO THE 90S/100S...HIGHS ON SUN ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOWER/MID 80S FOR
MON.

LOOKING AT THE MID/LATE WORK WEEK PERIOD...MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES
IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BY THE TIME
TUES MORNING ROLLS AROUND...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  THE
ERN HALF IS DOMINATED BY TROUGHING RESULTING FROM A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE HUDSON BAY AREA...WITH RIDGING COVERING THE
WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE CWA SITS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS SHOWING
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO WORK THEIR WAY SE
THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY OF THESE CHANCES IS LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS...SO ITS HARD TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT A PARTICULAR
PERIOD AT THIS POINT. KEPT POPS LOW...DONT WANT TO GIVE THE
IMPRESSION OF A MULTI-DAY PRECIP EVENTS. LIKELY WILL SEE POPS
REMOVED FROM AT LEAST A FEW OF THE PERIODS AS IT GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.  GENERALLY NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK DUE
TO THE CWA SITTING BETWEEN THE WRN WARM/ERN COOL AIR MASSES.  LOWER
80S FORECAST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH MID 80S FURTHER
S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AS DEW POINT DEPRESSION REMAINS LOW...THERE WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND STRATUS IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH HOW LONG THE RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER AND HOW SEVERE
THEY WILL WIND UP BEING...AS THIS IS WIDELY VARIABLE ACROSS SHORT
DISTANCES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEYOND THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EITHER WELL SOUTH OR WELL NORTH OF
THE TERMINALS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 261052 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
552 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND  EVENING.

SOME PATCHY FOG EXISTS THIS MORNING AS THE AIR IS QUITE SOUPY WITH
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ALSO THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BOTH SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GIVING US ONE MORE DAY OF HOT WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO GIVE US A HEALTHY CAP. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL HANG OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA TODAY...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL
EXACTLY WHERE IT IS AS IT WAS DISRUPTED FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
REMNANTS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MOIST DAY...ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
WAY SOUTH AND COULD HELP SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. A HEALTHY CAP IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
STALLED FRONT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE
SHOULD BE A PUSH OF DRIER AIR TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...HELPING
TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE NORTH...AND ULTIMATELY
INTRODUCE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WE WILL HAVE
ADEQUATE SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NORTH...BUT THE CAP WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO BUST COMPLETELY THROUGH. I WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. IF BY CHANCE A STORM BREAKS COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE CAP...THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

EXPECTING TO SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND SRN PLAINS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SLIDING SE FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF KS. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY...THE MAIN LOW CONTINUES PUSHING SE...AND
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY..AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA EXTENDS THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN CANADA. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL NOTABLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED EVEN AS WE GET INTO MON/MON NIGHT...AND THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES.  SUN AND MON BOTH LOOK TO BE PLEASANT DAYS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES THE
PRIMARY PLAYER IN THE SFC PATTERN. THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE DAY
ON SUN MAY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...BUT WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  BY
SUN EVENING THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...BUT BY MON EVENING HAS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN...AND
AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS WELL INTO THE 90S/100S...HIGHS ON SUN ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOWER/MID 80S FOR
MON.

LOOKING AT THE MID/LATE WORK WEEK PERIOD...MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES
IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BY THE TIME
TUES MORNING ROLLS AROUND...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  THE
ERN HALF IS DOMINATED BY TROUGHING RESULTING FROM A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE HUDSON BAY AREA...WITH RIDGING COVERING THE
WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE CWA SITS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS SHOWING
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO WORK THEIR WAY SE
THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY OF THESE CHANCES IS LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS...SO ITS HARD TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT A PARTICULAR
PERIOD AT THIS POINT. KEPT POPS LOW...DONT WANT TO GIVE THE
IMPRESSION OF A MULTI-DAY PRECIP EVENTS. LIKELY WILL SEE POPS
REMOVED FROM AT LEAST A FEW OF THE PERIODS AS IT GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.  GENERALLY NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK DUE
TO THE CWA SITTING BETWEEN THE WRN WARM/ERN COOL AIR MASSES.  LOWER
80S FORECAST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH MID 80S FURTHER
S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AS DEW POINT DEPRESSION REMAINS LOW...THERE WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND STRATUS IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH HOW LONG THE RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER AND HOW SEVERE
THEY WILL WIND UP BEING...AS THIS IS WIDELY VARIABLE ACROSS SHORT
DISTANCES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEYOND THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EITHER WELL SOUTH OR WELL NORTH OF
THE TERMINALS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 261052
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
552 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND  EVENING.

SOME PATCHY FOG EXISTS THIS MORNING AS THE AIR IS QUITE SOUPY WITH
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ALSO THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BOTH SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GIVING US ONE MORE DAY OF HOT WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO GIVE US A HEALTHY CAP. A NEARLY STATIONARY WILL HANG OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA TODAY...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE
IT IS AS IT WAS DISRUPTED FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REMNANTS IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MOIST DAY...ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH AND COULD HELP SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. A HEALTHY CAP IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
STALLED FRONT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE
SHOULD BE A PUSH OF DRIER AIR TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...HELPING
TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE NORTH...AND ULTIMATELY
INTRODUCE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WE WILL HAVE
ADEQUATE SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NORTH...BUT THE CAP WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO BUST COMPLETELY THROUGH. I WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. IF BY CHANCE A STORM BREAKS COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE CAP...THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

EXPECTING TO SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND SRN PLAINS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SLIDING SE FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF KS. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY...THE MAIN LOW CONTINUES PUSHING SE...AND
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY..AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA EXTENDS THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN CANADA. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL NOTABLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED EVEN AS WE GET INTO MON/MON NIGHT...AND THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES.  SUN AND MON BOTH LOOK TO BE PLEASANT DAYS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES THE
PRIMARY PLAYER IN THE SFC PATTERN. THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE DAY
ON SUN MAY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...BUT WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  BY
SUN EVENING THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...BUT BY MON EVENING HAS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN...AND
AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS WELL INTO THE 90S/100S...HIGHS ON SUN ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOWER/MID 80S FOR
MON.

LOOKING AT THE MID/LATE WORK WEEK PERIOD...MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES
IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BY THE TIME
TUES MORNING ROLLS AROUND...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  THE
ERN HALF IS DOMINATED BY TROUGHING RESULTING FROM A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE HUDSON BAY AREA...WITH RIDGING COVERING THE
WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE CWA SITS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS SHOWING
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO WORK THEIR WAY SE
THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY OF THESE CHANCES IS LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS...SO ITS HARD TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT A PARTICULAR
PERIOD AT THIS POINT. KEPT POPS LOW...DONT WANT TO GIVE THE
IMPRESSION OF A MULTI-DAY PRECIP EVENTS. LIKELY WILL SEE POPS
REMOVED FROM AT LEAST A FEW OF THE PERIODS AS IT GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.  GENERALLY NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK DUE
TO THE CWA SITTING BETWEEN THE WRN WARM/ERN COOL AIR MASSES.  LOWER
80S FORECAST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH MID 80S FURTHER
S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AS DEW POINT DEPRESSION REMAINS LOW...THERE WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND STRATUS IN THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH HOW LONG THE RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER AND HOW SEVERE
THEY WILL WIND UP BEING...AS THIS IS WIDELY VARIABLE ACROSS SHORT
DISTANCES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEYOND THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EITHER WELL SOUTH OR WELL NORTH OF
THE TERMINALS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 261013
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND  EVENING.

SOME PATCHY FOG EXISTS THIS MORNING AS THE AIR IS QUITE SOUPY WITH
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ALSO THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BOTH SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GIVING US ONE MORE DAY OF HOT WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO GIVE US A HEALTHY CAP. A NEARLY STATIONARY WILL HANG OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA TODAY...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE
IT IS AS IT WAS DISRUPTED FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REMNANTS IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MOIST DAY...ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH AND COULD HELP SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. A HEALTHY CAP IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
STALLED FRONT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE
SHOULD BE A PUSH OF DRIER AIR TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...HELPING
TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE NORTH...AND ULTIMATELY
INTRODUCE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WE WILL HAVE
ADEQUATE SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NORTH...BUT THE CAP WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO BUST COMPLETELY THROUGH. I WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. IF BY CHANCE A STORM BREAKS COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE CAP...THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

EXPECTING TO SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND SRN PLAINS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SLIDING SE FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF KS. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY...THE MAIN LOW CONTINUES PUSHING SE...AND
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY..AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA EXTENDS THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN CANADA. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL NOTABLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED EVEN AS WE GET INTO MON/MON NIGHT...AND THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES.  SUN AND MON BOTH LOOK TO BE PLEASANT DAYS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES THE
PRIMARY PLAYER IN THE SFC PATTERN. THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE DAY
ON SUN MAY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...BUT WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  BY
SUN EVENING THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...BUT BY MON EVENING HAS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN...AND
AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS WELL INTO THE 90S/100S...HIGHS ON SUN ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOWER/MID 80S FOR
MON.

LOOKING AT THE MID/LATE WORK WEEK PERIOD...MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES
IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BY THE TIME
TUES MORNING ROLLS AROUND...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  THE
ERN HALF IS DOMINATED BY TROUGHING RESULTING FROM A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE HUDSON BAY AREA...WITH RIDGING COVERING THE
WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE CWA SITS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS SHOWING
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO WORK THEIR WAY SE
THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY OF THESE CHANCES IS LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS...SO ITS HARD TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT A PARTICULAR
PERIOD AT THIS POINT. KEPT POPS LOW...DONT WANT TO GIVE THE
IMPRESSION OF A MULTI-DAY PRECIP EVENTS. LIKELY WILL SEE POPS
REMOVED FROM AT LEAST A FEW OF THE PERIODS AS IT GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.  GENERALLY NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK DUE
TO THE CWA SITTING BETWEEN THE WRN WARM/ERN COOL AIR MASSES.  LOWER
80S FORECAST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH MID 80S FURTHER
S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AS DEW POINT DEPRESSION BECOMES SMALLER...THERE COULD BE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 261013
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND  EVENING.

SOME PATCHY FOG EXISTS THIS MORNING AS THE AIR IS QUITE SOUPY WITH
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ALSO THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BOTH SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GIVING US ONE MORE DAY OF HOT WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO GIVE US A HEALTHY CAP. A NEARLY STATIONARY WILL HANG OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CWA TODAY...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE
IT IS AS IT WAS DISRUPTED FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REMNANTS IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MOIST DAY...ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH AND COULD HELP SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. A HEALTHY CAP IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
STALLED FRONT BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE
SHOULD BE A PUSH OF DRIER AIR TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...HELPING
TO SHUT OFF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE NORTH...AND ULTIMATELY
INTRODUCE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WE WILL HAVE
ADEQUATE SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NORTH...BUT THE CAP WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO BUST COMPLETELY THROUGH. I WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO. IF BY CHANCE A STORM BREAKS COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE CAP...THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

EXPECTING TO SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND SRN PLAINS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SLIDING SE FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING INTO CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF KS. THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY...THE MAIN LOW CONTINUES PUSHING SE...AND
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY..AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA EXTENDS THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN CANADA. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH NO ADDITIONAL NOTABLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED EVEN AS WE GET INTO MON/MON NIGHT...AND THE DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES.  SUN AND MON BOTH LOOK TO BE PLEASANT DAYS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES THE
PRIMARY PLAYER IN THE SFC PATTERN. THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE DAY
ON SUN MAY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...BUT WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  BY
SUN EVENING THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...BUT BY MON EVENING HAS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN...AND
AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS WELL INTO THE 90S/100S...HIGHS ON SUN ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOWER/MID 80S FOR
MON.

LOOKING AT THE MID/LATE WORK WEEK PERIOD...MORE UNCERTAINTY ARISES
IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BY THE TIME
TUES MORNING ROLLS AROUND...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  THE
ERN HALF IS DOMINATED BY TROUGHING RESULTING FROM A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE HUDSON BAY AREA...WITH RIDGING COVERING THE
WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE CWA SITS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS SHOWING
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO WORK THEIR WAY SE
THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY OF THESE CHANCES IS LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS...SO ITS HARD TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT A PARTICULAR
PERIOD AT THIS POINT. KEPT POPS LOW...DONT WANT TO GIVE THE
IMPRESSION OF A MULTI-DAY PRECIP EVENTS. LIKELY WILL SEE POPS
REMOVED FROM AT LEAST A FEW OF THE PERIODS AS IT GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.  GENERALLY NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK DUE
TO THE CWA SITTING BETWEEN THE WRN WARM/ERN COOL AIR MASSES.  LOWER
80S FORECAST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH MID 80S FURTHER
S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AS DEW POINT DEPRESSION BECOMES SMALLER...THERE COULD BE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 260827
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
327 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING AS SEEN ON KLNX 88D.
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS BREAKING UP TO THE WEST...FROM THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE IN THE RING OF FIRE. NEAR TERM MODELS HRR AND
WRF...LINGER RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
MORNING. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS VALENTINE TO BURWELL AND
EAST BUT AM NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO LOOKING AT
EASTWARD TREND ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 80S. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SANDHILLS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE WAS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
COOL YESTERDAY. COOL FRONT TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RING OF
FIRE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER
NIGHT. HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AT 12Z SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PLACING THE LOW
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE TROUGH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WHICH FURTHER AMPLIFIES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST BUILDS THROUGH
MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS PARTICULAR UPPER LOW THEN
GETS INGESTED INTO THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC.
MODELS STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH COOLER
AIR TO THE EAST AND HOT AIR TO THE WEST THE PLAINS WILL AREA
BISECTING THESE AIR-MASSES AND COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES VARYING
BY DAY AS MINOR SHIFTS IN THE PATTERN MAY ADJUST THE LOCATIONS OF
THE WARMER VERSUS COOLER AIR.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AT 850MB RANGING FROM 15C TO 22C ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WHICH LEADS TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. THESE NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO AIR-
MASSES...KEEPING THE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WELL TO THE
EAST AND THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WON/T BE INCREDIBLY DRY SO
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO STAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE LOWS WILL BE NEAR THE NORMAL VALUES OF UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

THE BIGGER QUESTION OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE
ARE MANY DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...IF USING A BLEND OF THE
MODELS...WOULD GET A FORECAST LITTERED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH EACH PERIOD. THERE IS CONCERN THAT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST
AS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHILE SHORTWAVES ADVANCING OVER THE RIDGE
MAY TAKE A PATH WEST OF THE AREA...FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A DRY FORECAST
THROUGHOUT. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THAT OCCURRING THOUGH SO EVEN
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF BETTER CHANCES...FEEL THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST ONE OR TWO DAYS WITH A NEED FOR A MENTION FOR
RAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SO HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THOSE THREE DAYS RATHER
THAN ON EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD. SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 35 TO 45KTS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VALUES LESS
THAN 1K J/KG. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...DON/T ANTICIPATE SEVERE STORMS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KBF AND KVTN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS NEAR 17Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG











000
FXUS63 KLBF 260827
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
327 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING AS SEEN ON KLNX 88D.
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS BREAKING UP TO THE WEST...FROM THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE IN THE RING OF FIRE. NEAR TERM MODELS HRR AND
WRF...LINGER RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
MORNING. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS VALENTINE TO BURWELL AND
EAST BUT AM NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO LOOKING AT
EASTWARD TREND ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 80S. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SANDHILLS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE WAS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
COOL YESTERDAY. COOL FRONT TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RING OF
FIRE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER
NIGHT. HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AT 12Z SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PLACING THE LOW
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE TROUGH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WHICH FURTHER AMPLIFIES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST BUILDS THROUGH
MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS PARTICULAR UPPER LOW THEN
GETS INGESTED INTO THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC.
MODELS STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH COOLER
AIR TO THE EAST AND HOT AIR TO THE WEST THE PLAINS WILL AREA
BISECTING THESE AIR-MASSES AND COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES VARYING
BY DAY AS MINOR SHIFTS IN THE PATTERN MAY ADJUST THE LOCATIONS OF
THE WARMER VERSUS COOLER AIR.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AT 850MB RANGING FROM 15C TO 22C ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WHICH LEADS TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. THESE NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO AIR-
MASSES...KEEPING THE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WELL TO THE
EAST AND THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WON/T BE INCREDIBLY DRY SO
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO STAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE LOWS WILL BE NEAR THE NORMAL VALUES OF UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

THE BIGGER QUESTION OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE
ARE MANY DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...IF USING A BLEND OF THE
MODELS...WOULD GET A FORECAST LITTERED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH EACH PERIOD. THERE IS CONCERN THAT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST
AS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHILE SHORTWAVES ADVANCING OVER THE RIDGE
MAY TAKE A PATH WEST OF THE AREA...FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A DRY FORECAST
THROUGHOUT. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THAT OCCURRING THOUGH SO EVEN
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF BETTER CHANCES...FEEL THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST ONE OR TWO DAYS WITH A NEED FOR A MENTION FOR
RAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SO HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THOSE THREE DAYS RATHER
THAN ON EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD. SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 35 TO 45KTS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VALUES LESS
THAN 1K J/KG. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...DON/T ANTICIPATE SEVERE STORMS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KBF AND KVTN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS NEAR 17Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG











000
FXUS63 KLBF 260827
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
327 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING AS SEEN ON KLNX 88D.
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS BREAKING UP TO THE WEST...FROM THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE IN THE RING OF FIRE. NEAR TERM MODELS HRR AND
WRF...LINGER RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
MORNING. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS VALENTINE TO BURWELL AND
EAST BUT AM NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO LOOKING AT
EASTWARD TREND ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 80S. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SANDHILLS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE WAS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
COOL YESTERDAY. COOL FRONT TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RING OF
FIRE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER
NIGHT. HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AT 12Z SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PLACING THE LOW
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE TROUGH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WHICH FURTHER AMPLIFIES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST BUILDS THROUGH
MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS PARTICULAR UPPER LOW THEN
GETS INGESTED INTO THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC.
MODELS STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH COOLER
AIR TO THE EAST AND HOT AIR TO THE WEST THE PLAINS WILL AREA
BISECTING THESE AIR-MASSES AND COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES VARYING
BY DAY AS MINOR SHIFTS IN THE PATTERN MAY ADJUST THE LOCATIONS OF
THE WARMER VERSUS COOLER AIR.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AT 850MB RANGING FROM 15C TO 22C ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WHICH LEADS TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. THESE NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO AIR-
MASSES...KEEPING THE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WELL TO THE
EAST AND THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WON/T BE INCREDIBLY DRY SO
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO STAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE LOWS WILL BE NEAR THE NORMAL VALUES OF UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

THE BIGGER QUESTION OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE
ARE MANY DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...IF USING A BLEND OF THE
MODELS...WOULD GET A FORECAST LITTERED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH EACH PERIOD. THERE IS CONCERN THAT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST
AS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHILE SHORTWAVES ADVANCING OVER THE RIDGE
MAY TAKE A PATH WEST OF THE AREA...FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A DRY FORECAST
THROUGHOUT. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THAT OCCURRING THOUGH SO EVEN
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF BETTER CHANCES...FEEL THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST ONE OR TWO DAYS WITH A NEED FOR A MENTION FOR
RAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SO HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THOSE THREE DAYS RATHER
THAN ON EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD. SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 35 TO 45KTS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VALUES LESS
THAN 1K J/KG. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...DON/T ANTICIPATE SEVERE STORMS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KBF AND KVTN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS NEAR 17Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG











000
FXUS63 KLBF 260827
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
327 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING AS SEEN ON KLNX 88D.
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS BREAKING UP TO THE WEST...FROM THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE IN THE RING OF FIRE. NEAR TERM MODELS HRR AND
WRF...LINGER RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
MORNING. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS VALENTINE TO BURWELL AND
EAST BUT AM NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO LOOKING AT
EASTWARD TREND ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 80S. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SANDHILLS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE WAS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO
COOL YESTERDAY. COOL FRONT TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF RING OF
FIRE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER
NIGHT. HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AT 12Z SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PLACING THE LOW
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE TROUGH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WHICH FURTHER AMPLIFIES THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST BUILDS THROUGH
MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS PARTICULAR UPPER LOW THEN
GETS INGESTED INTO THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC.
MODELS STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH COOLER
AIR TO THE EAST AND HOT AIR TO THE WEST THE PLAINS WILL AREA
BISECTING THESE AIR-MASSES AND COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES VARYING
BY DAY AS MINOR SHIFTS IN THE PATTERN MAY ADJUST THE LOCATIONS OF
THE WARMER VERSUS COOLER AIR.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES AT 850MB RANGING FROM 15C TO 22C ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WHICH LEADS TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. THESE NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO AIR-
MASSES...KEEPING THE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WELL TO THE
EAST AND THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WON/T BE INCREDIBLY DRY SO
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO STAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE LOWS WILL BE NEAR THE NORMAL VALUES OF UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

THE BIGGER QUESTION OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE
ARE MANY DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THESE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...IF USING A BLEND OF THE
MODELS...WOULD GET A FORECAST LITTERED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH EACH PERIOD. THERE IS CONCERN THAT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST
AS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHILE SHORTWAVES ADVANCING OVER THE RIDGE
MAY TAKE A PATH WEST OF THE AREA...FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR A DRY FORECAST
THROUGHOUT. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THAT OCCURRING THOUGH SO EVEN
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF BETTER CHANCES...FEEL THAT THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST ONE OR TWO DAYS WITH A NEED FOR A MENTION FOR
RAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SO HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THOSE THREE DAYS RATHER
THAN ON EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD. SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 35 TO 45KTS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VALUES LESS
THAN 1K J/KG. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...DON/T ANTICIPATE SEVERE STORMS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KBF AND KVTN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS NEAR 17Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG











000
FXUS63 KOAX 260820
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WE EXPECT ONE MORE WARM/HOT DAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
DOMINATE THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES ARE STILL THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD.

PRIMARY FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...90 KNOT WINDS WERE NOTED FROM THE WY/MT
BORDER ACROSS NRN SD. AT 500 MB...A CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE A LOT LESS THAN WHAT
THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ONLY AROUND 40 METERS MAX JUST EAST OF THE
LOW. A BROAD RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE NM/TX
BORDER. VERY WARM AIR WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB WITH TEMPS OF
17 DEGREES C AT KLBF AND KOAX.

ISOLATED STORMS OCCURRED ABOVE THE CAP AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...
BUT COVERAGE WAS LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MEASURABLE PCPN DID
OCCUR AT KOFK. TWO TSTM COMPLEXES WERE NOTED AT 08Z...ONE OVER
CNTRL SD AND THE OTHER MOVING EWD ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER.

CONFIDENCE IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY...EVEN WITH MANY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
THE SD CONVECTION SHOULD TO DEVELOP SEWD TODAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND HEIGHTS DECREASE. THE KS STORMS
MAY ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SOME SUPPORT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE SPC DAY 1 OTLK SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A SLGT
RISK FOR PARTS OF SERN NE AND SWRN IA. THAT WOULD BE MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH.

SOME STORMS SHOULD END IN OUR SRN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS WELL...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IN CONTROL AND LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR PCPN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
MONDAY JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HEATING....SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THAT. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 80 TO 85.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE 500 MB PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
STRONG TROUGH FROM QUEBEC DOWN INTO THE ERN UNITED STATES AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING DOWN
IN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY SGFNT
SHORTWAVES AND 850 MB MOISTURE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW. SO...KEPT
PCPN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND MAINLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THESE CHANCES ARE ALSO MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG AT ALL SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO WORK INTO KOMA DURING THIS
TIME AS LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS DRAG MOISTURE FROM NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWER IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD MISS TAF SITES.
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND COULD AFFECT TAF SITES BEGINNING NEAR 18Z AT KOFK
BEFORE EXITING SOUTH OF KOMA/KLNK BY 02Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260820
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WE EXPECT ONE MORE WARM/HOT DAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
DOMINATE THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES ARE STILL THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD.

PRIMARY FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...90 KNOT WINDS WERE NOTED FROM THE WY/MT
BORDER ACROSS NRN SD. AT 500 MB...A CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE A LOT LESS THAN WHAT
THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ONLY AROUND 40 METERS MAX JUST EAST OF THE
LOW. A BROAD RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE NM/TX
BORDER. VERY WARM AIR WAS STILL IN PLACE AT 700 MB WITH TEMPS OF
17 DEGREES C AT KLBF AND KOAX.

ISOLATED STORMS OCCURRED ABOVE THE CAP AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...
BUT COVERAGE WAS LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MEASURABLE PCPN DID
OCCUR AT KOFK. TWO TSTM COMPLEXES WERE NOTED AT 08Z...ONE OVER
CNTRL SD AND THE OTHER MOVING EWD ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER.

CONFIDENCE IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY...EVEN WITH MANY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
THE SD CONVECTION SHOULD TO DEVELOP SEWD TODAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND HEIGHTS DECREASE. THE KS STORMS
MAY ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SOME SUPPORT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE SPC DAY 1 OTLK SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH A SLGT
RISK FOR PARTS OF SERN NE AND SWRN IA. THAT WOULD BE MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH.

SOME STORMS SHOULD END IN OUR SRN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS WELL...
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTH.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IN CONTROL AND LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR PCPN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
MONDAY JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HEATING....SO WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THAT. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY 80 TO 85.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE 500 MB PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
STRONG TROUGH FROM QUEBEC DOWN INTO THE ERN UNITED STATES AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING DOWN
IN MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY SGFNT
SHORTWAVES AND 850 MB MOISTURE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW. SO...KEPT
PCPN CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND MAINLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THESE CHANCES ARE ALSO MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG AT ALL SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO WORK INTO KOMA DURING THIS
TIME AS LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS DRAG MOISTURE FROM NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWER IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD MISS TAF SITES.
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND COULD AFFECT TAF SITES BEGINNING NEAR 18Z AT KOFK
BEFORE EXITING SOUTH OF KOMA/KLNK BY 02Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 260603 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
103 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE BEING ENJOYED ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HUMIDITY
REMAINS RATHER HIGH THOUGH...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR THE MOST PART...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE ANY STORM THAT CAN SURVIVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. MODELS STRUGGLING ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...WITH SOME HAVING THE BOUNDARY UP IN
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW WITH THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN PARTS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN
FACT...IT IS MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS PICKING UP RETURN
MOISTURE AS FLOW COMES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME...A
THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS IN NEW MEXICO...COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.25 INCH. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONT COMES THROUGH AND...WITH SYSTEM-RELATIVE
LIFT...PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -1C TO -3C...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ON
THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION APPROPRIATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT KLBF AND KVTN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS THE TERMINALS AFTER 17Z...WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTH AT 10-15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 260603 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
103 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE BEING ENJOYED ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HUMIDITY
REMAINS RATHER HIGH THOUGH...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR THE MOST PART...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE ANY STORM THAT CAN SURVIVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. MODELS STRUGGLING ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...WITH SOME HAVING THE BOUNDARY UP IN
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW WITH THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN PARTS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN
FACT...IT IS MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS PICKING UP RETURN
MOISTURE AS FLOW COMES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME...A
THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS IN NEW MEXICO...COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.25 INCH. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONT COMES THROUGH AND...WITH SYSTEM-RELATIVE
LIFT...PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -1C TO -3C...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ON
THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION APPROPRIATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT KLBF AND KVTN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS THE TERMINALS AFTER 17Z...WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTH AT 10-15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KGID 260600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ALOFT: A CLASSIC SUMMER PATTERN. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES WAS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE WESTERLIES ZONAL OVER THE NRN USA. A LOW
WAS OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SE TONIGHT-TOMORROW
AND WHILE IT WILL BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS IT
WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE FCST AREA THRU THE SHORT-TERM.
HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE ANOTHER COMFORTABLY
COOL/LESS HUMID AIR MASS AND SCOTT HAS THE DETAILS BELOW.

SURFACE: THE INITIAL WEAK COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SASKATCHEWAN LOW WAS ADVANCING SE THRU THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER TONIGHT. FOR WHAT
IT`S WORTH THE 09Z SREF TAKES THE FRONT DEEPER INTO KS THAN THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL OTHER GUIDANCE (ROUGHLY TOP-RSL-DDC). A MUCH
STRONGER COOL FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO NRN NEB TOMORROW. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.

IF YOU`RE NOT A FAN OF THE HEAT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY. THE DWPT AT
CHADRON WAS 40F AT 2 PM!

RAIN: 09Z SREF QPF SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR .01 QPF IN 3 HRS AND
PROBABILITIES FOR .01 IN 12 HRS SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE LITTLE CHANCE
OF TSTMS THRU 6 PM SAT. THAT DOESNT MEAN THE CHANCE IS ZERO. A FEW
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CNTRL KS THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF CO/WY WITH THE MEAN FLOW TAKING THEM INTO
SD AND NRN NEB. THIS COULD POSE FCST COMPLICATIONS FOR TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY WITH WISPS OF CIRRUS. HOT!
ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT IN A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

WE CANCELLED 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY
AT 205 PM. THE WEAK COOL FRONT WAS PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS AND
THEREFORE THE HEAT INDEX. THE REST OF THE ADVISORY CONTS AS
POSTED.

TONIGHT: BLOW-OFF/CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
CO/WY WILL STREAM INTO THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A P/CLOUDY
NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD ONE WITH LOWS 69-75F WHICH IS ROUGHLY 7F
ABOVE NORMAL.

SAT: THE EFFECTS OF THE TSTMS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS NRN NEB ARE A
WILD CARD. THERE IS POTENTIAL THE SRN FRINGE COULD BRUSH THE NRN
FCST AREA FROM ORD-FULLERTON-OSCEOLA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO
SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S INTO THE FCST AREA. THESE REMNANT COLD
POOLS CAN EXHIBIT STRANGE BEHAVIOR WHEN THERE`S NO PROGRESSIVE
TROF ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAR FROM CONFIDENT...BUT DECIDED TO
EXPAND A LOW CHANCE OF A TSTM TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AFTER 4 PM.

A SUBSTANTIAL CAP IS IN PLACE WITH NO COOLING ALOFT EXPECTED. TSTM
INITIATION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ODDS CERTAINLY FAVOR A DRY
FCST. LFC HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 10K FT. SO IT`S GOING TO TAKE A
LOT. HOWEVER...SHOULD ISOLATED TSTMS SOMEHOW MANAGE TO FORM...
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. DUE TO THE THREAT
OF TSTMS BEING SO LIMITED...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED 1" HAIL IN THE
HWO...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THE SIZE OF HAIL WOULD PROBABLY BE
MUCH LARGER. SREF MEAN MLCAPE IS 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
40-50 KTS.

ANOTHER HOT DAY OF 100+ FOR MOST OF N-CNTRL KS. HIGHS WERE NUDGED
DOWN N OF I-80 WHERE CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT HEATING FOR PART OF THE
DAY.

GUIDANCE DWPTS WERE PROBABLY 10F TOO HIGH S AND W OF SMITH CENTER.
SO THEY WERE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

HEAT: THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY E OF A
LINE FROM FROM GENEVA NEB-OSBORNE KS. NRN/PHG/HLC ARE ALL IN THE
UPR 50S AT 3 PM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH TUESDAY. STARTING
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THUS ALLOWING FOR MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

ALTHOUGH A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT 00Z SUNDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA ALONG THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED CLOSER TO 850MB OR 800MB. THIS
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION COULD ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
DYNAMICS WHICH ALSO BE MOVING OVER THE AREA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA 00-06Z SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS
OUR AREA POST-FROPA...INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
COULD STILL HELP PROMOTE SOME RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1000-3000J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY IN EXISTENCE
AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ALL...THIS WILL GO AHEAD AND OUTLOOK THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF ~50KT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL SET UP AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RESULTANT DIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER VARIOUS
POINTS ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND ALLBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING POPS TO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST
PART.

LITTLE...IF ANY...CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY
DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AS DEW POINT DEPRESSION BECOMES SMALLER...THERE COULD BE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 260600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ALOFT: A CLASSIC SUMMER PATTERN. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES WAS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE WESTERLIES ZONAL OVER THE NRN USA. A LOW
WAS OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SE TONIGHT-TOMORROW
AND WHILE IT WILL BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS IT
WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE FCST AREA THRU THE SHORT-TERM.
HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE ANOTHER COMFORTABLY
COOL/LESS HUMID AIR MASS AND SCOTT HAS THE DETAILS BELOW.

SURFACE: THE INITIAL WEAK COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SASKATCHEWAN LOW WAS ADVANCING SE THRU THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER TONIGHT. FOR WHAT
IT`S WORTH THE 09Z SREF TAKES THE FRONT DEEPER INTO KS THAN THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL OTHER GUIDANCE (ROUGHLY TOP-RSL-DDC). A MUCH
STRONGER COOL FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO NRN NEB TOMORROW. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.

IF YOU`RE NOT A FAN OF THE HEAT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY. THE DWPT AT
CHADRON WAS 40F AT 2 PM!

RAIN: 09Z SREF QPF SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR .01 QPF IN 3 HRS AND
PROBABILITIES FOR .01 IN 12 HRS SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE LITTLE CHANCE
OF TSTMS THRU 6 PM SAT. THAT DOESNT MEAN THE CHANCE IS ZERO. A FEW
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CNTRL KS THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF CO/WY WITH THE MEAN FLOW TAKING THEM INTO
SD AND NRN NEB. THIS COULD POSE FCST COMPLICATIONS FOR TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY WITH WISPS OF CIRRUS. HOT!
ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT IN A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

WE CANCELLED 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY
AT 205 PM. THE WEAK COOL FRONT WAS PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS AND
THEREFORE THE HEAT INDEX. THE REST OF THE ADVISORY CONTS AS
POSTED.

TONIGHT: BLOW-OFF/CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
CO/WY WILL STREAM INTO THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A P/CLOUDY
NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD ONE WITH LOWS 69-75F WHICH IS ROUGHLY 7F
ABOVE NORMAL.

SAT: THE EFFECTS OF THE TSTMS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS NRN NEB ARE A
WILD CARD. THERE IS POTENTIAL THE SRN FRINGE COULD BRUSH THE NRN
FCST AREA FROM ORD-FULLERTON-OSCEOLA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO
SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S INTO THE FCST AREA. THESE REMNANT COLD
POOLS CAN EXHIBIT STRANGE BEHAVIOR WHEN THERE`S NO PROGRESSIVE
TROF ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAR FROM CONFIDENT...BUT DECIDED TO
EXPAND A LOW CHANCE OF A TSTM TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AFTER 4 PM.

A SUBSTANTIAL CAP IS IN PLACE WITH NO COOLING ALOFT EXPECTED. TSTM
INITIATION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ODDS CERTAINLY FAVOR A DRY
FCST. LFC HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 10K FT. SO IT`S GOING TO TAKE A
LOT. HOWEVER...SHOULD ISOLATED TSTMS SOMEHOW MANAGE TO FORM...
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. DUE TO THE THREAT
OF TSTMS BEING SO LIMITED...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED 1" HAIL IN THE
HWO...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THE SIZE OF HAIL WOULD PROBABLY BE
MUCH LARGER. SREF MEAN MLCAPE IS 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
40-50 KTS.

ANOTHER HOT DAY OF 100+ FOR MOST OF N-CNTRL KS. HIGHS WERE NUDGED
DOWN N OF I-80 WHERE CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT HEATING FOR PART OF THE
DAY.

GUIDANCE DWPTS WERE PROBABLY 10F TOO HIGH S AND W OF SMITH CENTER.
SO THEY WERE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

HEAT: THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY E OF A
LINE FROM FROM GENEVA NEB-OSBORNE KS. NRN/PHG/HLC ARE ALL IN THE
UPR 50S AT 3 PM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH TUESDAY. STARTING
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THUS ALLOWING FOR MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

ALTHOUGH A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT 00Z SUNDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA ALONG THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED CLOSER TO 850MB OR 800MB. THIS
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION COULD ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
DYNAMICS WHICH ALSO BE MOVING OVER THE AREA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA 00-06Z SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS
OUR AREA POST-FROPA...INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
COULD STILL HELP PROMOTE SOME RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1000-3000J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY IN EXISTENCE
AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ALL...THIS WILL GO AHEAD AND OUTLOOK THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF ~50KT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL SET UP AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RESULTANT DIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER VARIOUS
POINTS ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND ALLBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING POPS TO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST
PART.

LITTLE...IF ANY...CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY
DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AS DEW POINT DEPRESSION BECOMES SMALLER...THERE COULD BE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ON SATURDAY...IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN ITS CHANGE FOR
THE COOLER.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER WRN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH MORNING UA/SOUNDINGS INDICATED A WELL
MIXED DRY LAYER OVER PLAINS. THIS CAPPING LAYER EXTENDED AS LOW AS
H85 PER OAX AND LBF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND COULD ACT TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ALONG WEAKENING COOL FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING ACROSS
WCNTRL ZONES AT 19Z. THIS BOUNDARY WAS FORECAST TO STALL AS MORE
JET ENERGY ROTATES ON SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW AND IT APPEARS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG FRONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DID LEAVE IN SLGT CHC POPS FAR SRN ZONES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING EITHER DUE TO WEAK COOL FRONT IN SE NEBR OR
NEAR EARLIER OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT IN SW IA. THAT SAID...ANY
PRECIP OVER THE FA MAY WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS
DRIER PUSH/SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOVED SOUTH AS UPPER LOW BEGINS
TURNING SOUTHEAST. STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WILL BE A MORNING
ROUND NEAR OR MOSTLY N OF NRN ZONES FOLLOWED BY AFTN DEVELOPMENT
IN SERN NEBR/SWRN IA AS REINFORCING BOUNDARY IS SHOVED SOUTH...OR
WHETHER MORNING ACTIVITY WILL JUST CONTINUE BUBBLING SEWD THRU THE
DAY WITH SOME LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN DECREASE. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED IDEA OF SPREADING POPS SEWD DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH ANY ACTIVITY BY EVENING CONCENTRATED NEAR
BUT MOSTLY SE OF OMAHA AND LINCOLN. STILL ONE MORE HOT DAY
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FA...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PROBABLY
REACHING NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 100 CNTRL/S. NO EXTENSION OF HEAT
ADVISORY WAS MADE AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CLOUDS/PRECIP FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...COULD SEE SRN ZONES MAX TEMPS+APPARENT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN GOING FORECAST.

WOULD SUSPECT TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIT SERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST OF READINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. MADE LITTLE OR NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EXTENDED BEGINS AND PROBABLY CONTINUES COOLER THAN NORMAL AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCKS INTO PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUS WILL KEEP TRENDS OF LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY 80-85. QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER OR NOT ANY DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SE IN UPPER FLOW CAN ASSIST IN SPREADING PERIODS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION IN UPSLOPE FLOW EAST ACROSS FA OR IF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT.
MOISTURE MAY BE MAIN DETERRENT AS SFC DWPTS LOWER TO 50S/LOWER
60S WITH A SIMILAR DROP IN H85 DWPTS WILL PREVAIL. FOR
CONTINUITIES SAKE LEFT IN SMALL POPS TUE NIGHT WEST...KEPT WED
DRY AND THEN MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST MODEL BLEND FOR
THURSDAY...WHICH INSERTED SMALL POPS MOST AREAS. FRIDAY WAS KEPT DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG AT ALL SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO WORK INTO KOMA DURING THIS
TIME AS LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS DRAG MOISTURE FROM NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWER IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD MISS TAF SITES.
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND COULD AFFECT TAF SITES BEGINNING NEAR 18Z AT KOFK
BEFORE EXITING SOUTH OF KOMA/KLNK BY 02Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ON SATURDAY...IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN ITS CHANGE FOR
THE COOLER.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER WRN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH MORNING UA/SOUNDINGS INDICATED A WELL
MIXED DRY LAYER OVER PLAINS. THIS CAPPING LAYER EXTENDED AS LOW AS
H85 PER OAX AND LBF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND COULD ACT TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ALONG WEAKENING COOL FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING ACROSS
WCNTRL ZONES AT 19Z. THIS BOUNDARY WAS FORECAST TO STALL AS MORE
JET ENERGY ROTATES ON SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW AND IT APPEARS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG FRONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DID LEAVE IN SLGT CHC POPS FAR SRN ZONES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING EITHER DUE TO WEAK COOL FRONT IN SE NEBR OR
NEAR EARLIER OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT IN SW IA. THAT SAID...ANY
PRECIP OVER THE FA MAY WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS
DRIER PUSH/SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOVED SOUTH AS UPPER LOW BEGINS
TURNING SOUTHEAST. STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WILL BE A MORNING
ROUND NEAR OR MOSTLY N OF NRN ZONES FOLLOWED BY AFTN DEVELOPMENT
IN SERN NEBR/SWRN IA AS REINFORCING BOUNDARY IS SHOVED SOUTH...OR
WHETHER MORNING ACTIVITY WILL JUST CONTINUE BUBBLING SEWD THRU THE
DAY WITH SOME LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN DECREASE. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED IDEA OF SPREADING POPS SEWD DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH ANY ACTIVITY BY EVENING CONCENTRATED NEAR
BUT MOSTLY SE OF OMAHA AND LINCOLN. STILL ONE MORE HOT DAY
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FA...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PROBABLY
REACHING NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 100 CNTRL/S. NO EXTENSION OF HEAT
ADVISORY WAS MADE AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CLOUDS/PRECIP FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...COULD SEE SRN ZONES MAX TEMPS+APPARENT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN GOING FORECAST.

WOULD SUSPECT TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIT SERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST OF READINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. MADE LITTLE OR NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EXTENDED BEGINS AND PROBABLY CONTINUES COOLER THAN NORMAL AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCKS INTO PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUS WILL KEEP TRENDS OF LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY 80-85. QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER OR NOT ANY DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SE IN UPPER FLOW CAN ASSIST IN SPREADING PERIODS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION IN UPSLOPE FLOW EAST ACROSS FA OR IF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT.
MOISTURE MAY BE MAIN DETERRENT AS SFC DWPTS LOWER TO 50S/LOWER
60S WITH A SIMILAR DROP IN H85 DWPTS WILL PREVAIL. FOR
CONTINUITIES SAKE LEFT IN SMALL POPS TUE NIGHT WEST...KEPT WED
DRY AND THEN MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST MODEL BLEND FOR
THURSDAY...WHICH INSERTED SMALL POPS MOST AREAS. FRIDAY WAS KEPT DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR FOG AT ALL SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO WORK INTO KOMA DURING THIS
TIME AS LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS DRAG MOISTURE FROM NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWER IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL ALSO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD MISS TAF SITES.
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND COULD AFFECT TAF SITES BEGINNING NEAR 18Z AT KOFK
BEFORE EXITING SOUTH OF KOMA/KLNK BY 02Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 252343
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
643 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE BEING ENJOYED ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HUMIDITY
REMAINS RATHER HIGH THOUGH...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR THE MOST PART...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE ANY STORM THAT CAN SURVIVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. MODELS STRUGGLING ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...WITH SOME HAVING THE BOUNDARY UP IN
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW WITH THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN PARTS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN
FACT...IT IS MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS PICKING UP RETURN
MOISTURE AS FLOW COMES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME...A
THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS IN NEW MEXICO...COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.25 INCH. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONT COMES THROUGH AND...WITH SYSTEM-RELATIVE
LIFT...PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -1C TO -3C...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ON
THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION APPROPRIATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KBF AND KVTN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS NEAR 17Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 252343
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
643 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE BEING ENJOYED ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HUMIDITY
REMAINS RATHER HIGH THOUGH...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR THE MOST PART...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE ANY STORM THAT CAN SURVIVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. MODELS STRUGGLING ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...WITH SOME HAVING THE BOUNDARY UP IN
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW WITH THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN PARTS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN
FACT...IT IS MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS PICKING UP RETURN
MOISTURE AS FLOW COMES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME...A
THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS IN NEW MEXICO...COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.25 INCH. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONT COMES THROUGH AND...WITH SYSTEM-RELATIVE
LIFT...PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -1C TO -3C...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ON
THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION APPROPRIATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KBF AND KVTN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS NEAR 17Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 252343
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
643 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE BEING ENJOYED ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HUMIDITY
REMAINS RATHER HIGH THOUGH...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR THE MOST PART...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE ANY STORM THAT CAN SURVIVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. MODELS STRUGGLING ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...WITH SOME HAVING THE BOUNDARY UP IN
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW WITH THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN PARTS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN
FACT...IT IS MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS PICKING UP RETURN
MOISTURE AS FLOW COMES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME...A
THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS IN NEW MEXICO...COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.25 INCH. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONT COMES THROUGH AND...WITH SYSTEM-RELATIVE
LIFT...PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -1C TO -3C...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ON
THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION APPROPRIATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KBF AND KVTN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS NEAR 17Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 252343
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
643 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE BEING ENJOYED ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HUMIDITY
REMAINS RATHER HIGH THOUGH...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR THE MOST PART...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE ANY STORM THAT CAN SURVIVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. MODELS STRUGGLING ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...WITH SOME HAVING THE BOUNDARY UP IN
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW WITH THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN PARTS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN
FACT...IT IS MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS PICKING UP RETURN
MOISTURE AS FLOW COMES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME...A
THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS IN NEW MEXICO...COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.25 INCH. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONT COMES THROUGH AND...WITH SYSTEM-RELATIVE
LIFT...PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -1C TO -3C...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ON
THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION APPROPRIATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KBF AND KVTN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS NEAR 17Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KOAX 252316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ON SATURDAY...IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN ITS CHANGE FOR
THE COOLER.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER WRN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH MORNING UA/SOUNDINGS INDICATED A WELL
MIXED DRY LAYER OVER PLAINS. THIS CAPPING LAYER EXTENDED AS LOW AS
H85 PER OAX AND LBF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND COULD ACT TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ALONG WEAKENING COOL FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING ACROSS
WCNTRL ZONES AT 19Z. THIS BOUNDARY WAS FORECAST TO STALL AS MORE
JET ENERGY ROTATES ON SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW AND IT APPEARS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG FRONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DID LEAVE IN SLGT CHC POPS FAR SRN ZONES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING EITHER DUE TO WEAK COOL FRONT IN SE NEBR OR
NEAR EARLIER OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT IN SW IA. THAT SAID...ANY
PRECIP OVER THE FA MAY WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS
DRIER PUSH/SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOVED SOUTH AS UPPER LOW BEGINS
TURNING SOUTHEAST. STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WILL BE A MORNING
ROUND NEAR OR MOSTLY N OF NRN ZONES FOLLOWED BY AFTN DEVELOPMENT
IN SERN NEBR/SWRN IA AS REINFORCING BOUNDARY IS SHOVED SOUTH...OR
WHETHER MORNING ACTIVITY WILL JUST CONTINUE BUBBLING SEWD THRU THE
DAY WITH SOME LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN DECREASE. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED IDEA OF SPREADING POPS SEWD DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH ANY ACTIVITY BY EVENING CONCENTRATED NEAR
BUT MOSTLY SE OF OMAHA AND LINCOLN. STILL ONE MORE HOT DAY
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FA...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PROBABLY
REACHING NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 100 CNTRL/S. NO EXTENSION OF HEAT
ADVISORY WAS MADE AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CLOUDS/PRECIP FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...COULD SEE SRN ZONES MAX TEMPS+APPARENT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN GOING FORECAST.

WOULD SUSPECT TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIT SERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST OF READINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. MADE LITTLE OR NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EXTENDED BEGINS AND PROBABLY CONTINUES COOLER THAN NORMAL AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCKS INTO PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUS WILL KEEP TRENDS OF LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY 80-85. QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER OR NOT ANY DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SE IN UPPER FLOW CAN ASSIST IN SPREADING PERIODS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION IN UPSLOPE FLOW EAST ACROSS FA OR IF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT.
MOISTURE MAY BE MAIN DETERRENT AS SFC DWPTS LOWER TO 50S/LOWER
60S WITH A SIMILAR DROP IN H85 DWPTS WILL PREVAIL. FOR
CONTINUITIES SAKE LEFT IN SMALL POPS TUE NIGHT WEST...KEPT WED
DRY AND THEN MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST MODEL BLEND FOR
THURSDAY...WHICH INSERTED SMALL POPS MOST AREAS. FRIDAY WAS KEPT DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY
WORK INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND COULD
AFFECT KOFK AROUND 18Z AND KOMA/KLNK AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 252316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ON SATURDAY...IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN ITS CHANGE FOR
THE COOLER.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER WRN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH MORNING UA/SOUNDINGS INDICATED A WELL
MIXED DRY LAYER OVER PLAINS. THIS CAPPING LAYER EXTENDED AS LOW AS
H85 PER OAX AND LBF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND COULD ACT TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ALONG WEAKENING COOL FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING ACROSS
WCNTRL ZONES AT 19Z. THIS BOUNDARY WAS FORECAST TO STALL AS MORE
JET ENERGY ROTATES ON SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW AND IT APPEARS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG FRONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DID LEAVE IN SLGT CHC POPS FAR SRN ZONES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING EITHER DUE TO WEAK COOL FRONT IN SE NEBR OR
NEAR EARLIER OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT IN SW IA. THAT SAID...ANY
PRECIP OVER THE FA MAY WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS
DRIER PUSH/SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOVED SOUTH AS UPPER LOW BEGINS
TURNING SOUTHEAST. STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WILL BE A MORNING
ROUND NEAR OR MOSTLY N OF NRN ZONES FOLLOWED BY AFTN DEVELOPMENT
IN SERN NEBR/SWRN IA AS REINFORCING BOUNDARY IS SHOVED SOUTH...OR
WHETHER MORNING ACTIVITY WILL JUST CONTINUE BUBBLING SEWD THRU THE
DAY WITH SOME LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN DECREASE. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED IDEA OF SPREADING POPS SEWD DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH ANY ACTIVITY BY EVENING CONCENTRATED NEAR
BUT MOSTLY SE OF OMAHA AND LINCOLN. STILL ONE MORE HOT DAY
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FA...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PROBABLY
REACHING NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 100 CNTRL/S. NO EXTENSION OF HEAT
ADVISORY WAS MADE AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CLOUDS/PRECIP FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...COULD SEE SRN ZONES MAX TEMPS+APPARENT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN GOING FORECAST.

WOULD SUSPECT TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIT SERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST OF READINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. MADE LITTLE OR NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EXTENDED BEGINS AND PROBABLY CONTINUES COOLER THAN NORMAL AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCKS INTO PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUS WILL KEEP TRENDS OF LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY 80-85. QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER OR NOT ANY DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SE IN UPPER FLOW CAN ASSIST IN SPREADING PERIODS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION IN UPSLOPE FLOW EAST ACROSS FA OR IF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT.
MOISTURE MAY BE MAIN DETERRENT AS SFC DWPTS LOWER TO 50S/LOWER
60S WITH A SIMILAR DROP IN H85 DWPTS WILL PREVAIL. FOR
CONTINUITIES SAKE LEFT IN SMALL POPS TUE NIGHT WEST...KEPT WED
DRY AND THEN MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST MODEL BLEND FOR
THURSDAY...WHICH INSERTED SMALL POPS MOST AREAS. FRIDAY WAS KEPT DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY
WORK INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND COULD
AFFECT KOFK AROUND 18Z AND KOMA/KLNK AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KGID 252314
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
614 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ALOFT: A CLASSIC SUMMER PATTERN. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES WAS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE WESTERLIES ZONAL OVER THE NRN USA. A LOW
WAS OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SE TONIGHT-TOMORROW
AND WHILE IT WILL BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS IT
WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE FCST AREA THRU THE SHORT-TERM.
HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE ANOTHER COMFORTABLY
COOL/LESS HUMID AIR MASS AND SCOTT HAS THE DETAILS BELOW.

SURFACE: THE INITIAL WEAK COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SASKATCHEWAN LOW WAS ADVANCING SE THRU THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER TONIGHT. FOR WHAT
IT`S WORTH THE 09Z SREF TAKES THE FRONT DEEPER INTO KS THAN THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL OTHER GUIDANCE (ROUGHLY TOP-RSL-DDC). A MUCH
STRONGER COOL FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO NRN NEB TOMORROW. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.

IF YOU`RE NOT A FAN OF THE HEAT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY. THE DWPT AT
CHADRON WAS 40F AT 2 PM!

RAIN: 09Z SREF QPF SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR .01 QPF IN 3 HRS AND
PROBABILITIES FOR .01 IN 12 HRS SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE LITTLE CHANCE
OF TSTMS THRU 6 PM SAT. THAT DOESNT MEAN THE CHANCE IS ZERO. A FEW
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CNTRL KS THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF CO/WY WITH THE MEAN FLOW TAKING THEM INTO
SD AND NRN NEB. THIS COULD POSE FCST COMPLICATIONS FOR TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY WITH WISPS OF CIRRUS. HOT!
ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT IN A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

WE CANCELLED 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY
AT 205 PM. THE WEAK COOL FRONT WAS PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS AND
THEREFORE THE HEAT INDEX. THE REST OF THE ADVISORY CONTS AS
POSTED.

TONIGHT: BLOW-OFF/CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
CO/WY WILL STREAM INTO THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A P/CLOUDY
NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD ONE WITH LOWS 69-75F WHICH IS ROUGHLY 7F
ABOVE NORMAL.

SAT: THE EFFECTS OF THE TSTMS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS NRN NEB ARE A
WILD CARD. THERE IS POTENTIAL THE SRN FRINGE COULD BRUSH THE NRN
FCST AREA FROM ORD-FULLERTON-OSCEOLA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO
SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S INTO THE FCST AREA. THESE REMNANT COLD
POOLS CAN EXHIBIT STRANGE BEHAVIOR WHEN THERE`S NO PROGRESSIVE
TROF ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAR FROM CONFIDENT...BUT DECIDED TO
EXPAND A LOW CHANCE OF A TSTM TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AFTER 4 PM.

A SUBSTANTIAL CAP IS IN PLACE WITH NO COOLING ALOFT EXPECTED. TSTM
INITIATION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ODDS CERTAINLY FAVOR A DRY
FCST. LFC HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 10K FT. SO IT`S GOING TO TAKE A
LOT. HOWEVER...SHOULD ISOLATED TSTMS SOMEHOW MANAGE TO FORM...
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. DUE TO THE THREAT
OF TSTMS BEING SO LIMITED...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED 1" HAIL IN THE
HWO...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THE SIZE OF HAIL WOULD PROBABLY BE
MUCH LARGER. SREF MEAN MLCAPE IS 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
40-50 KTS.

ANOTHER HOT DAY OF 100+ FOR MOST OF N-CNTRL KS. HIGHS WERE NUDGED
DOWN N OF I-80 WHERE CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT HEATING FOR PART OF THE
DAY.

GUIDANCE DWPTS WERE PROBABLY 10F TOO HIGH S AND W OF SMITH CENTER.
SO THEY WERE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

HEAT: THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY E OF A
LINE FROM FROM GENEVA NEB-OSBORNE KS. NRN/PHG/HLC ARE ALL IN THE
UPR 50S AT 3 PM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH TUESDAY. STARTING
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THUS ALLOWING FOR MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

ALTHOUGH A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT 00Z SUNDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA ALONG THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED CLOSER TO 850MB OR 800MB. THIS
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION COULD ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
DYNAMICS WHICH ALSO BE MOVING OVER THE AREA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA 00-06Z SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS
OUR AREA POST-FROPA...INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
COULD STILL HELP PROMOTE SOME RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1000-3000J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY IN EXISTENCE
AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ALL...THIS WILL GO AHEAD AND OUTLOOK THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF ~50KT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL SET UP AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RESULTANT DIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER VARIOUS
POINTS ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND ALLBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING POPS TO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST
PART.

LITTLE...IF ANY...CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY
DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. DEVELOPMENT
COULD HINGE ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEB PANHANDLE AND NW KANSAS WORK IN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-077-
     085>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...EWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 252314
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
614 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ALOFT: A CLASSIC SUMMER PATTERN. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES WAS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE WESTERLIES ZONAL OVER THE NRN USA. A LOW
WAS OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SE TONIGHT-TOMORROW
AND WHILE IT WILL BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS IT
WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE FCST AREA THRU THE SHORT-TERM.
HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE ANOTHER COMFORTABLY
COOL/LESS HUMID AIR MASS AND SCOTT HAS THE DETAILS BELOW.

SURFACE: THE INITIAL WEAK COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SASKATCHEWAN LOW WAS ADVANCING SE THRU THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER TONIGHT. FOR WHAT
IT`S WORTH THE 09Z SREF TAKES THE FRONT DEEPER INTO KS THAN THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL OTHER GUIDANCE (ROUGHLY TOP-RSL-DDC). A MUCH
STRONGER COOL FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO NRN NEB TOMORROW. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.

IF YOU`RE NOT A FAN OF THE HEAT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY. THE DWPT AT
CHADRON WAS 40F AT 2 PM!

RAIN: 09Z SREF QPF SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR .01 QPF IN 3 HRS AND
PROBABILITIES FOR .01 IN 12 HRS SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE LITTLE CHANCE
OF TSTMS THRU 6 PM SAT. THAT DOESNT MEAN THE CHANCE IS ZERO. A FEW
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CNTRL KS THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF CO/WY WITH THE MEAN FLOW TAKING THEM INTO
SD AND NRN NEB. THIS COULD POSE FCST COMPLICATIONS FOR TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY WITH WISPS OF CIRRUS. HOT!
ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT IN A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

WE CANCELLED 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY
AT 205 PM. THE WEAK COOL FRONT WAS PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS AND
THEREFORE THE HEAT INDEX. THE REST OF THE ADVISORY CONTS AS
POSTED.

TONIGHT: BLOW-OFF/CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
CO/WY WILL STREAM INTO THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A P/CLOUDY
NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD ONE WITH LOWS 69-75F WHICH IS ROUGHLY 7F
ABOVE NORMAL.

SAT: THE EFFECTS OF THE TSTMS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS NRN NEB ARE A
WILD CARD. THERE IS POTENTIAL THE SRN FRINGE COULD BRUSH THE NRN
FCST AREA FROM ORD-FULLERTON-OSCEOLA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO
SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S INTO THE FCST AREA. THESE REMNANT COLD
POOLS CAN EXHIBIT STRANGE BEHAVIOR WHEN THERE`S NO PROGRESSIVE
TROF ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAR FROM CONFIDENT...BUT DECIDED TO
EXPAND A LOW CHANCE OF A TSTM TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AFTER 4 PM.

A SUBSTANTIAL CAP IS IN PLACE WITH NO COOLING ALOFT EXPECTED. TSTM
INITIATION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ODDS CERTAINLY FAVOR A DRY
FCST. LFC HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 10K FT. SO IT`S GOING TO TAKE A
LOT. HOWEVER...SHOULD ISOLATED TSTMS SOMEHOW MANAGE TO FORM...
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. DUE TO THE THREAT
OF TSTMS BEING SO LIMITED...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED 1" HAIL IN THE
HWO...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THE SIZE OF HAIL WOULD PROBABLY BE
MUCH LARGER. SREF MEAN MLCAPE IS 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
40-50 KTS.

ANOTHER HOT DAY OF 100+ FOR MOST OF N-CNTRL KS. HIGHS WERE NUDGED
DOWN N OF I-80 WHERE CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT HEATING FOR PART OF THE
DAY.

GUIDANCE DWPTS WERE PROBABLY 10F TOO HIGH S AND W OF SMITH CENTER.
SO THEY WERE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

HEAT: THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY E OF A
LINE FROM FROM GENEVA NEB-OSBORNE KS. NRN/PHG/HLC ARE ALL IN THE
UPR 50S AT 3 PM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH TUESDAY. STARTING
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THUS ALLOWING FOR MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

ALTHOUGH A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT 00Z SUNDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA ALONG THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED CLOSER TO 850MB OR 800MB. THIS
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION COULD ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
DYNAMICS WHICH ALSO BE MOVING OVER THE AREA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA 00-06Z SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS
OUR AREA POST-FROPA...INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
COULD STILL HELP PROMOTE SOME RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1000-3000J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY IN EXISTENCE
AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ALL...THIS WILL GO AHEAD AND OUTLOOK THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF ~50KT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL SET UP AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RESULTANT DIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER VARIOUS
POINTS ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND ALLBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING POPS TO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST
PART.

LITTLE...IF ANY...CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY
DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. DEVELOPMENT
COULD HINGE ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEB PANHANDLE AND NW KANSAS WORK IN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-077-
     085>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...EWALD



000
FXUS63 KGID 252040
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTS THRU TOMORROW FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL COOL-DOWN NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS WE WILL
CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL JULY...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ALOFT: A CLASSIC SUMMER PATTERN. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES WAS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE WESTERLIES ZONAL OVER THE NRN USA. A LOW
WAS OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SE TONIGHT-TOMORROW
AND WHILE IT WILL BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS IT
WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE FCST AREA THRU THE SHORT-TERM.
HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE ANOTHER COMFORTABLY
COOL/LESS HUMID AIR MASS AND SCOTT HAS THE DETAILS BELOW.

SURFACE: THE INITIAL WEAK COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SASKATCHEWAN LOW WAS ADVANCING SE THRU THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER TONIGHT. FOR WHAT
IT`S WORTH THE 09Z SREF TAKES THE FRONT DEEPER INTO KS THAN THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL OTHER GUIDANCE (ROUGHLY TOP-RSL-DDC). A MUCH
STRONGER COOL FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO NRN NEB TOMORROW. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.

IF YOU`RE NOT A FAN OF THE HEAT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY. THE DWPT AT
CHADRON WAS 40F AT 2 PM!

RAIN: 09Z SREF QPF SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR .01 QPF IN 3 HRS AND
PROBABILITIES FOR .01 IN 12 HRS SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE LITTLE CHANCE
OF TSTMS THRU 6 PM SAT. THAT DOESNT MEAN THE CHANCE IS ZERO. A FEW
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CNTRL KS THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF CO/WY WITH THE MEAN FLOW TAKING THEM INTO
SD AND NRN NEB. THIS COULD POSE FCST COMPLICATIONS FOR TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY WITH WISPS OF CIRRUS. HOT!
ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT IN A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

WE CANCELLED 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY
AT 205 PM. THE WEAK COOL FRONT WAS PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS AND
THEREFORE THE HEAT INDEX. THE REST OF THE ADVISORY CONTS AS
POSTED.

TONIGHT: BLOW-OFF/CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
CO/WY WILL STREAM INTO THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A P/CLOUDY
NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD ONE WITH LOWS 69-75F WHICH IS ROUGHLY 7F
ABOVE NORMAL.

SAT: THE EFFECTS OF THE TSTMS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS NRN NEB ARE A
WILD CARD. THERE IS POTENTIAL THE SRN FRINGE COULD BRUSH THE NRN
FCST AREA FROM ORD-FULLERTON-OSCEOLA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO
SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S INTO THE FCST AREA. THESE REMNANT COLD
POOLS CAN EXHIBIT STRANGE BEHAVIOR WHEN THERE`S NO PROGRESSIVE
TROF ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAR FROM CONFIDENT...BUT DECIDED TO
EXPAND A LOW CHANCE OF A TSTM TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AFTER 4 PM.

A SUBSTANTIAL CAP IS IN PLACE WITH NO COOLING ALOFT EXPECTED. TSTM
INITIATION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ODDS CERTAINLY FAVOR A DRY
FCST. LFC HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 10K FT. SO IT`S GOING TO TAKE A
LOT. HOWEVER...SHOULD ISOLATED TSTMS SOMEHOW MANAGE TO FORM...
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. DUE TO THE THREAT
OF TSTMS BEING SO LIMITED...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED 1" HAIL IN THE
HWO...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THE SIZE OF HAIL WOULD PROBABLY BE
MUCH LARGER. SREF MEAN MLCAPE IS 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
40-50 KTS.

ANOTHER HOT DAY OF 100+ FOR MOST OF N-CNTRL KS. HIGHS WERE NUDGED
DOWN N OF I-80 WHERE CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT HEATING FOR PART OF THE
DAY.

GUIDANCE DWPTS WERE PROBABLY 10F TOO HIGH S AND W OF SMITH CENTER.
SO THEY WERE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

HEAT: THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY E OF A
LINE FROM FROM GENEVA NEB-OSBORNE KS. NRN/PHG/HLC ARE ALL IN THE
UPR 50S AT 3 PM.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH TUESDAY. STARTING
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THUS ALLOWING FOR MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

ALTHOUGH A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT 00Z SUNDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA ALONG THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED CLOSER TO 850MB OR 800MB. THIS
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION COULD ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
DYNAMICS WHICH ALSO BE MOVING OVER THE AREA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA 00-06Z SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS
OUR AREA POST-FROPA...INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
COULD STILL HELP PROMOTE SOME RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1000-3000J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY IN EXISTENCE
AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ALL...THIS WILL GO AHEAD AND OUTLOOK THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF ~50KT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL SET UP AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RESULTANT DIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER VARIOUS
POINTS ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND ALLBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING POPS TO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST
PART.

LITTLE...IF ANY...CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY
DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH NW SUBSIDING BELOW 10 KTS. EXCELLENT FOR
AERIAL APPLICATION ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL INVADE ABOVE 15K
FT...BLOW-OFF FROM UPSTREAM TSRA. NW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NE.

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. NE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-077-
     085>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 252040
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTS THRU TOMORROW FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL COOL-DOWN NEXT WEEK WHICH MEANS WE WILL
CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A COOLER THAN NORMAL JULY...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ALOFT: A CLASSIC SUMMER PATTERN. SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES WAS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE WESTERLIES ZONAL OVER THE NRN USA. A LOW
WAS OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE SE TONIGHT-TOMORROW
AND WHILE IT WILL BEGIN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS IT
WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE FCST AREA THRU THE SHORT-TERM.
HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE ANOTHER COMFORTABLY
COOL/LESS HUMID AIR MASS AND SCOTT HAS THE DETAILS BELOW.

SURFACE: THE INITIAL WEAK COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SASKATCHEWAN LOW WAS ADVANCING SE THRU THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER TONIGHT. FOR WHAT
IT`S WORTH THE 09Z SREF TAKES THE FRONT DEEPER INTO KS THAN THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL OTHER GUIDANCE (ROUGHLY TOP-RSL-DDC). A MUCH
STRONGER COOL FRONT WILL BEGIN SAGGING INTO NRN NEB TOMORROW. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.

IF YOU`RE NOT A FAN OF THE HEAT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY. THE DWPT AT
CHADRON WAS 40F AT 2 PM!

RAIN: 09Z SREF QPF SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR .01 QPF IN 3 HRS AND
PROBABILITIES FOR .01 IN 12 HRS SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE LITTLE CHANCE
OF TSTMS THRU 6 PM SAT. THAT DOESNT MEAN THE CHANCE IS ZERO. A FEW
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CNTRL KS THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS OF CO/WY WITH THE MEAN FLOW TAKING THEM INTO
SD AND NRN NEB. THIS COULD POSE FCST COMPLICATIONS FOR TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SUNNY WITH WISPS OF CIRRUS. HOT!
ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT IN A PRE-
FRONTAL TROF.

WE CANCELLED 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY
AT 205 PM. THE WEAK COOL FRONT WAS PUTTING A CAP ON TEMPS AND
THEREFORE THE HEAT INDEX. THE REST OF THE ADVISORY CONTS AS
POSTED.

TONIGHT: BLOW-OFF/CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
CO/WY WILL STREAM INTO THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A P/CLOUDY
NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD ONE WITH LOWS 69-75F WHICH IS ROUGHLY 7F
ABOVE NORMAL.

SAT: THE EFFECTS OF THE TSTMS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS NRN NEB ARE A
WILD CARD. THERE IS POTENTIAL THE SRN FRINGE COULD BRUSH THE NRN
FCST AREA FROM ORD-FULLERTON-OSCEOLA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO
SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S INTO THE FCST AREA. THESE REMNANT COLD
POOLS CAN EXHIBIT STRANGE BEHAVIOR WHEN THERE`S NO PROGRESSIVE
TROF ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAR FROM CONFIDENT...BUT DECIDED TO
EXPAND A LOW CHANCE OF A TSTM TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AFTER 4 PM.

A SUBSTANTIAL CAP IS IN PLACE WITH NO COOLING ALOFT EXPECTED. TSTM
INITIATION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ODDS CERTAINLY FAVOR A DRY
FCST. LFC HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 10K FT. SO IT`S GOING TO TAKE A
LOT. HOWEVER...SHOULD ISOLATED TSTMS SOMEHOW MANAGE TO FORM...
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. DUE TO THE THREAT
OF TSTMS BEING SO LIMITED...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED 1" HAIL IN THE
HWO...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THE SIZE OF HAIL WOULD PROBABLY BE
MUCH LARGER. SREF MEAN MLCAPE IS 4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
40-50 KTS.

ANOTHER HOT DAY OF 100+ FOR MOST OF N-CNTRL KS. HIGHS WERE NUDGED
DOWN N OF I-80 WHERE CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT HEATING FOR PART OF THE
DAY.

GUIDANCE DWPTS WERE PROBABLY 10F TOO HIGH S AND W OF SMITH CENTER.
SO THEY WERE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

HEAT: THE NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY E OF A
LINE FROM FROM GENEVA NEB-OSBORNE KS. NRN/PHG/HLC ARE ALL IN THE
UPR 50S AT 3 PM.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD
AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH TUESDAY. STARTING
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THUS ALLOWING FOR MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

ALTHOUGH A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT 00Z SUNDAY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA ALONG THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED CLOSER TO 850MB OR 800MB. THIS
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION COULD ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE AND ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
DYNAMICS WHICH ALSO BE MOVING OVER THE AREA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA 00-06Z SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS
OUR AREA POST-FROPA...INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
COULD STILL HELP PROMOTE SOME RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1000-3000J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY IN EXISTENCE
AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. GIVEN ALL...THIS WILL GO AHEAD AND OUTLOOK THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD THEN PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF ~50KT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK WILL SET UP AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RESULTANT DIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER VARIOUS
POINTS ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND ALLBLEND
RESPONDED BY PROVIDING POPS TO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST
PART.

LITTLE...IF ANY...CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY
DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH NW SUBSIDING BELOW 10 KTS. EXCELLENT FOR
AERIAL APPLICATION ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL INVADE ABOVE 15K
FT...BLOW-OFF FROM UPSTREAM TSRA. NW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NE.

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. NE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-077-
     085>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KLBF 252005
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
305 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE BEING ENJOYED ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HUMIDITY
REMAINS RATHER HIGH THOUGH...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR THE MOST PART...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE ANY STORM THAT CAN SURVIVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. MODELS STRUGGLING ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...WITH SOME HAVING THE BOUNDARY UP IN
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW WITH THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN PARTS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN
FACT...IT IS MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS PICKING UP RETURN
MOISTURE AS FLOW COMES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME...A
THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS IN NEW MEXICO...COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.25 INCH. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONT COMES THROUGH AND...WITH SYSTEM-RELATIVE
LIFT...PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -1C TO -3C...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ON
THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION APPROPRIATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED...NO MENTION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON TO EAST TONIGHT AND THEN BACK TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TAYLOR






000
FXUS63 KLBF 252005
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
305 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE BEING ENJOYED ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HUMIDITY
REMAINS RATHER HIGH THOUGH...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR THE MOST PART...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE ANY STORM THAT CAN SURVIVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. MODELS STRUGGLING ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...WITH SOME HAVING THE BOUNDARY UP IN
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW WITH THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN PARTS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN
FACT...IT IS MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS PICKING UP RETURN
MOISTURE AS FLOW COMES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME...A
THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS IN NEW MEXICO...COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.25 INCH. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONT COMES THROUGH AND...WITH SYSTEM-RELATIVE
LIFT...PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -1C TO -3C...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ON
THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION APPROPRIATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED...NO MENTION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON TO EAST TONIGHT AND THEN BACK TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TAYLOR







000
FXUS63 KOAX 251957
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ON SATURDAY...IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN ITS CHANGE FOR
THE COOLER.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER WRN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH MORNING UA/SOUNDINGS INDICATED A WELL
MIXED DRY LAYER OVER PLAINS. THIS CAPPING LAYER EXTENDED AS LOW AS
H85 PER OAX AND LBF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND COULD ACT TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ALONG WEAKENING COOL FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING ACROSS
WCNTRL ZONES AT 19Z. THIS BOUNDARY WAS FORECAST TO STALL AS MORE
JET ENERGY ROTATES ON SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW AND IT APPEARS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG FRONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DID LEAVE IN SLGT CHC POPS FAR SRN ZONES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING EITHER DUE TO WEAK COOL FRONT IN SE NEBR OR
NEAR EARLIER OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT IN SW IA. THAT SAID...ANY
PRECIP OVER THE FA MAY WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS
DRIER PUSH/SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOVED SOUTH AS UPPER LOW BEGINS
TURNING SOUTHEAST. STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WILL BE A MORNING
ROUND NEAR OR MOSTLY N OF NRN ZONES FOLLOWED BY AFTN DEVELOPMENT
IN SERN NEBR/SWRN IA AS REINFORCING BOUNDARY IS SHOVED SOUTH...OR
WHETHER MORNING ACTIVITY WILL JUST CONTINUE BUBBLING SEWD THRU THE
DAY WITH SOME LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN DECREASE. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED IDEA OF SPREADING POPS SEWD DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH ANY ACTIVITY BY EVENING CONCENTRATED NEAR
BUT MOSTLY SE OF OMAHA AND LINCOLN. STILL ONE MORE HOT DAY
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FA...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PROBABLY
REACHING NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 100 CNTRL/S. NO EXTENSION OF HEAT
ADVISORY WAS MADE AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CLOUDS/PRECIP FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...COULD SEE SRN ZONES MAX TEMPS+APPARENT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN GOING FORECAST.

WOULD SUSPECT TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIT SERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST OF READINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. MADE LITTLE OR NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EXTENDED BEGINS AND PROBABLY CONTINUES COOLER THAN NORMAL AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCKS INTO PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUS WILL KEEP TRENDS OF LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY 80-85. QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER OR NOT ANY DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SE IN UPPER FLOW CAN ASSIST IN SPREADING PERIODS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION IN UPSLOPE FLOW EAST ACROSS FA OR IF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT.
MOISTURE MAY BE MAIN DETERRENT AS SFC DWPTS LOWER TO 50S/LOWER
60S WITH A SIMILAR DROP IN H85 DWPTS WILL PREVAIL. FOR
CONTINUITIES SAKE LEFT IN SMALL POPS TUE NIGHT WEST...KEPT WED
DRY AND THEN MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST MODEL BLEND FOR
THURSDAY...WHICH INSERTED SMALL POPS MOST AREAS. FRIDAY WAS KEPT DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AT 18Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS STILL IN
PLACE AT KOMA. WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH 03Z THEN STALL NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER AREA.
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT KOFK AFTER 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM AREAS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251957
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ON SATURDAY...IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN ITS CHANGE FOR
THE COOLER.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER WRN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH MORNING UA/SOUNDINGS INDICATED A WELL
MIXED DRY LAYER OVER PLAINS. THIS CAPPING LAYER EXTENDED AS LOW AS
H85 PER OAX AND LBF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND COULD ACT TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ALONG WEAKENING COOL FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING ACROSS
WCNTRL ZONES AT 19Z. THIS BOUNDARY WAS FORECAST TO STALL AS MORE
JET ENERGY ROTATES ON SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW AND IT APPEARS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG FRONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DID LEAVE IN SLGT CHC POPS FAR SRN ZONES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING EITHER DUE TO WEAK COOL FRONT IN SE NEBR OR
NEAR EARLIER OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT IN SW IA. THAT SAID...ANY
PRECIP OVER THE FA MAY WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS
DRIER PUSH/SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOVED SOUTH AS UPPER LOW BEGINS
TURNING SOUTHEAST. STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WILL BE A MORNING
ROUND NEAR OR MOSTLY N OF NRN ZONES FOLLOWED BY AFTN DEVELOPMENT
IN SERN NEBR/SWRN IA AS REINFORCING BOUNDARY IS SHOVED SOUTH...OR
WHETHER MORNING ACTIVITY WILL JUST CONTINUE BUBBLING SEWD THRU THE
DAY WITH SOME LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN DECREASE. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED IDEA OF SPREADING POPS SEWD DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH ANY ACTIVITY BY EVENING CONCENTRATED NEAR
BUT MOSTLY SE OF OMAHA AND LINCOLN. STILL ONE MORE HOT DAY
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FA...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PROBABLY
REACHING NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 100 CNTRL/S. NO EXTENSION OF HEAT
ADVISORY WAS MADE AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CLOUDS/PRECIP FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...COULD SEE SRN ZONES MAX TEMPS+APPARENT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN GOING FORECAST.

WOULD SUSPECT TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIT SERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST OF READINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. MADE LITTLE OR NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EXTENDED BEGINS AND PROBABLY CONTINUES COOLER THAN NORMAL AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCKS INTO PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUS WILL KEEP TRENDS OF LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY 80-85. QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER OR NOT ANY DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SE IN UPPER FLOW CAN ASSIST IN SPREADING PERIODS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION IN UPSLOPE FLOW EAST ACROSS FA OR IF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT.
MOISTURE MAY BE MAIN DETERRENT AS SFC DWPTS LOWER TO 50S/LOWER
60S WITH A SIMILAR DROP IN H85 DWPTS WILL PREVAIL. FOR
CONTINUITIES SAKE LEFT IN SMALL POPS TUE NIGHT WEST...KEPT WED
DRY AND THEN MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST MODEL BLEND FOR
THURSDAY...WHICH INSERTED SMALL POPS MOST AREAS. FRIDAY WAS KEPT DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AT 18Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS STILL IN
PLACE AT KOMA. WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH 03Z THEN STALL NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER AREA.
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT KOFK AFTER 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM AREAS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251957
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ON SATURDAY...IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN ITS CHANGE FOR
THE COOLER.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER WRN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH MORNING UA/SOUNDINGS INDICATED A WELL
MIXED DRY LAYER OVER PLAINS. THIS CAPPING LAYER EXTENDED AS LOW AS
H85 PER OAX AND LBF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND COULD ACT TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ALONG WEAKENING COOL FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING ACROSS
WCNTRL ZONES AT 19Z. THIS BOUNDARY WAS FORECAST TO STALL AS MORE
JET ENERGY ROTATES ON SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW AND IT APPEARS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG FRONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DID LEAVE IN SLGT CHC POPS FAR SRN ZONES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING EITHER DUE TO WEAK COOL FRONT IN SE NEBR OR
NEAR EARLIER OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT IN SW IA. THAT SAID...ANY
PRECIP OVER THE FA MAY WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS
DRIER PUSH/SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOVED SOUTH AS UPPER LOW BEGINS
TURNING SOUTHEAST. STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WILL BE A MORNING
ROUND NEAR OR MOSTLY N OF NRN ZONES FOLLOWED BY AFTN DEVELOPMENT
IN SERN NEBR/SWRN IA AS REINFORCING BOUNDARY IS SHOVED SOUTH...OR
WHETHER MORNING ACTIVITY WILL JUST CONTINUE BUBBLING SEWD THRU THE
DAY WITH SOME LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN DECREASE. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED IDEA OF SPREADING POPS SEWD DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH ANY ACTIVITY BY EVENING CONCENTRATED NEAR
BUT MOSTLY SE OF OMAHA AND LINCOLN. STILL ONE MORE HOT DAY
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FA...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PROBABLY
REACHING NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 100 CNTRL/S. NO EXTENSION OF HEAT
ADVISORY WAS MADE AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CLOUDS/PRECIP FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...COULD SEE SRN ZONES MAX TEMPS+APPARENT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN GOING FORECAST.

WOULD SUSPECT TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIT SERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST OF READINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. MADE LITTLE OR NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EXTENDED BEGINS AND PROBABLY CONTINUES COOLER THAN NORMAL AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCKS INTO PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUS WILL KEEP TRENDS OF LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY 80-85. QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER OR NOT ANY DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SE IN UPPER FLOW CAN ASSIST IN SPREADING PERIODS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION IN UPSLOPE FLOW EAST ACROSS FA OR IF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT.
MOISTURE MAY BE MAIN DETERRENT AS SFC DWPTS LOWER TO 50S/LOWER
60S WITH A SIMILAR DROP IN H85 DWPTS WILL PREVAIL. FOR
CONTINUITIES SAKE LEFT IN SMALL POPS TUE NIGHT WEST...KEPT WED
DRY AND THEN MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST MODEL BLEND FOR
THURSDAY...WHICH INSERTED SMALL POPS MOST AREAS. FRIDAY WAS KEPT DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AT 18Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS STILL IN
PLACE AT KOMA. WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH 03Z THEN STALL NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER AREA.
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT KOFK AFTER 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM AREAS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251957
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY ON SATURDAY...IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN ITS CHANGE FOR
THE COOLER.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER WRN
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH MORNING UA/SOUNDINGS INDICATED A WELL
MIXED DRY LAYER OVER PLAINS. THIS CAPPING LAYER EXTENDED AS LOW AS
H85 PER OAX AND LBF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND COULD ACT TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ALONG WEAKENING COOL FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING ACROSS
WCNTRL ZONES AT 19Z. THIS BOUNDARY WAS FORECAST TO STALL AS MORE
JET ENERGY ROTATES ON SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW AND IT APPEARS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG FRONT THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...DID LEAVE IN SLGT CHC POPS FAR SRN ZONES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING EITHER DUE TO WEAK COOL FRONT IN SE NEBR OR
NEAR EARLIER OUTFLOW REINFORCED WARM FRONT IN SW IA. THAT SAID...ANY
PRECIP OVER THE FA MAY WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS
DRIER PUSH/SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOVED SOUTH AS UPPER LOW BEGINS
TURNING SOUTHEAST. STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WILL BE A MORNING
ROUND NEAR OR MOSTLY N OF NRN ZONES FOLLOWED BY AFTN DEVELOPMENT
IN SERN NEBR/SWRN IA AS REINFORCING BOUNDARY IS SHOVED SOUTH...OR
WHETHER MORNING ACTIVITY WILL JUST CONTINUE BUBBLING SEWD THRU THE
DAY WITH SOME LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN DECREASE. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED IDEA OF SPREADING POPS SEWD DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH ANY ACTIVITY BY EVENING CONCENTRATED NEAR
BUT MOSTLY SE OF OMAHA AND LINCOLN. STILL ONE MORE HOT DAY
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FA...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PROBABLY
REACHING NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 100 CNTRL/S. NO EXTENSION OF HEAT
ADVISORY WAS MADE AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CLOUDS/PRECIP FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...COULD SEE SRN ZONES MAX TEMPS+APPARENT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN GOING FORECAST.

WOULD SUSPECT TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIT SERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST OF READINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. MADE LITTLE OR NO
CHANGES TO TEMPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

EXTENDED BEGINS AND PROBABLY CONTINUES COOLER THAN NORMAL AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCKS INTO PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUS WILL KEEP TRENDS OF LOWS MOSTLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY 80-85. QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER OR NOT ANY DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SE IN UPPER FLOW CAN ASSIST IN SPREADING PERIODS OF HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION IN UPSLOPE FLOW EAST ACROSS FA OR IF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT.
MOISTURE MAY BE MAIN DETERRENT AS SFC DWPTS LOWER TO 50S/LOWER
60S WITH A SIMILAR DROP IN H85 DWPTS WILL PREVAIL. FOR
CONTINUITIES SAKE LEFT IN SMALL POPS TUE NIGHT WEST...KEPT WED
DRY AND THEN MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST MODEL BLEND FOR
THURSDAY...WHICH INSERTED SMALL POPS MOST AREAS. FRIDAY WAS KEPT DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AT 18Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS STILL IN
PLACE AT KOMA. WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH 03Z THEN STALL NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER AREA.
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT KOFK AFTER 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM AREAS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251820
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
120 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS. WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY GOING SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT FORMED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONTINUED TO ROLL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH 40-60 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 1 KM AGL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS GENERALLY ROOTED ABOVE
THE IMPRESSIVE CAP BELOW 750 MB FROM 00Z KOAX SOUNDING. A FEW THINGS
NOTED FROM THAT SOUNDING...700-500 MB LAPSE RATE WAS 7.8 DEGREES C
PER KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.38 INCHES. THIS MORNING WAS A
PERFECT EXAMPLE OF HOW WE CAN GET OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EVEN WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 14-15 DEGREES C. CASES LIKE THIS THOUGH ARE
VERY HARD TO PREDICT OVER ABOUT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE.

MAIN FEATURES NOTED FROM 00Z UPPER AIR PLOT AT 500 MB WERE THE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND THE RIDGE THAT STRETCHED FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. VERY
IMPRESSIVE 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS...ESTIMATED AT UP TO 140 METERS...
WERE NEAR THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO COLORADO.

THE CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN OPEN UP A BIT AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS WILL WOBBLE A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
EXTENSION OF THAT HIGH THOUGH WILL BUILD UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH SUNDAY AS TROUGHS DIG OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...PUTTING OUR AREA IN MODEST TO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW.

TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA WITH WARM MILD LEVELS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING
TO GET SOME ISOLATED STORMS GOING BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR STORMS TO
AGAIN ROLL EASTWARD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. THAT ACTIVITY WOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING
A STELLAR JOB WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECENT SREF
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN SOME WEAK 700-500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
TONIGHT...THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH ANYTHING...BUT WILL KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MAINLY 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. SPC DAY 2 OTLK
DOES HAVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK (I THINK
MOSTLY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING) AND FOR NOW THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS
TODAY...GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER. BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT
FRI JUL 25 2014

WE STILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. PCPN CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK SMALL...WITH ONLY FAIR MODEL
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO GET TSTMS GOING.
THE 500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY A BIT AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AT 18Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS STILL IN
PLACE AT KOMA. WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH 03Z THEN STALL NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER AREA.
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY IMPACT KOFK AFTER 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM AREAS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 251801
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
101 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL FRONT JUST ENTERING THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AND LAPS DATA SURFACE
TROUGH JUST OVER NORTH PLATTE. COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THE MORNING. BROAD LIFT WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE DAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH. HIGHS SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TD`S IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS WITH LOW 60S FROM ONEILL TO NORTH PLATTE AND
EAST. IR HAS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO
AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY. MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT
AND HAVE MOST PLACES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. UPPER RIDGE HAS FORECAST AREA IN FAST ZONAL FLOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS OVER NIGHT. CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OVER NIGHT.
HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS
MOVING THROUGH. LOWS GENERALLY 60 TO 65 OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL STILL CAUSE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER N
CENTRAL NEB EARLY IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...MAYBE 90.
SW NEBRASKA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S.

COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO DIVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A TREND DOWNWARD OF TEMPS. HIGHS FOR SUN IN THE
LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL ALSO USHER IN
DRIER AIR SO FORECAST IS DRY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE
50S...WHILE MONDAY HIGHS ONLY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE MID TO LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. THIS WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST...INITIALLY OUT WEST...THEN SPREADING EAST. AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...HEIGHTS WILL RISE. A SLOW WARM
UP IS EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A
FEW DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THE NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED...NO MENTION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON TO EAST TONIGHT AND THEN BACK TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR






000
FXUS63 KGID 251730
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FCST CONTS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED AS OF 1230P.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
KEEP TEMPS/DWPTS ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED CURVES.

IT WAS A VERY WARM START AND THAT IS USUALLY A GOOD PLATFORM FOR
HITTING 100+. BOTH GRI AND HSI WERE AMONG THE TOP 5 WARMEST LOWS
ON RECORD FOR JUL 25TH.

THE SFC LOW WAS JUST N OF ODX AT 14Z WITH A TROF EXTENDING SW INTO
WRN KS. THE COOL FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SE THRU THE PANHANDLE AND
SANDHILLS. THIS DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. THE 14Z CONSENSUS OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH OUR CURRENT FCST. SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CHANGES
YET.

100+ WILL OCCUR ALONG AND S OF A LINE STOCKTON KS-SMITH CTR-HEBRON
NEB.

WE ARE NOTING MVFR STRATUS OVER SD ERODING AS IT DROPS INTO THE
SANDHILLS. THIS COULD BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR AVIATION/SKY
FCSTS TONIGHT. WE WILL CONT TO INTERROGATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
GIVING US PLENTY OF WARM WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US A
HEALTHY CAP. A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
...WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A BIT TRICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND
ALSO SOME MOISTURE POOLING AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A SCENARIO OF
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS.
HOWEVER...WE COULD GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HARDLY IN
AGREEMENT. WENT CLOSER WITH CONSRAW FOR HIGHS AND ALLBLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CENTERED OVER NM/NRN TX/OK...WITH RIDGE
FLATTENED THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CANADA. OUR GENERAL AREA IS SET UP IN BETWEEN THIS TWO
SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE /OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/ MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME QUESTION
REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER NRN PORTIONS /CONCERNED ABT BETTER CAPPING FURTHER SOUTH/...SO
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH ARE PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING
THE LACK OF GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS.

SHOULD THINGS AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT THERE
WOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKS ITS
WAY IN.  THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENDING UP ROUGHLY OVER NRN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BY THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD HELP TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UNFORTUNATELY PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING...OTHERS KEEPING IT CONFINED TO N/NERN PORTIONS /ON THE
EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING...SO AGAIN KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
CANT RULE OUT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN
CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

MORE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE REGION
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH MODELS
SHOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN REMOVING
THEM FROM ANY PARTICULAR ONE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THAT TIME GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...SATURDAY IS TRICKY WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND WARMER AIR ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHILE COOLER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT IN BEHIND MAKES
THINGS DIFFICULT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR 90 IN THE NORTH
WITH NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTH...BUT ANY CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.  ONCE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE CWA IS
SET UP BETWEEN THE COOLEST AIR CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
AND THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CONUS. THIS
LOOKS TO RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MON/TUE HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH NW SUBSIDING BELOW 10 KTS. EXCELLENT FOR
AERIAL APPLICATION ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL INVADE ABOVE 15K
FT...BLOW-OFF FROM UPSTREAM TSRA. NW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NE.

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. NE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ063-064-074>077-
     083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 251730
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FCST CONTS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED AS OF 1230P.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
KEEP TEMPS/DWPTS ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED CURVES.

IT WAS A VERY WARM START AND THAT IS USUALLY A GOOD PLATFORM FOR
HITTING 100+. BOTH GRI AND HSI WERE AMONG THE TOP 5 WARMEST LOWS
ON RECORD FOR JUL 25TH.

THE SFC LOW WAS JUST N OF ODX AT 14Z WITH A TROF EXTENDING SW INTO
WRN KS. THE COOL FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SE THRU THE PANHANDLE AND
SANDHILLS. THIS DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. THE 14Z CONSENSUS OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH OUR CURRENT FCST. SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CHANGES
YET.

100+ WILL OCCUR ALONG AND S OF A LINE STOCKTON KS-SMITH CTR-HEBRON
NEB.

WE ARE NOTING MVFR STRATUS OVER SD ERODING AS IT DROPS INTO THE
SANDHILLS. THIS COULD BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR AVIATION/SKY
FCSTS TONIGHT. WE WILL CONT TO INTERROGATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
GIVING US PLENTY OF WARM WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US A
HEALTHY CAP. A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
...WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A BIT TRICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND
ALSO SOME MOISTURE POOLING AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A SCENARIO OF
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS.
HOWEVER...WE COULD GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HARDLY IN
AGREEMENT. WENT CLOSER WITH CONSRAW FOR HIGHS AND ALLBLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CENTERED OVER NM/NRN TX/OK...WITH RIDGE
FLATTENED THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CANADA. OUR GENERAL AREA IS SET UP IN BETWEEN THIS TWO
SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE /OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/ MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME QUESTION
REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER NRN PORTIONS /CONCERNED ABT BETTER CAPPING FURTHER SOUTH/...SO
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH ARE PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING
THE LACK OF GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS.

SHOULD THINGS AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT THERE
WOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKS ITS
WAY IN.  THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENDING UP ROUGHLY OVER NRN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BY THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD HELP TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UNFORTUNATELY PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING...OTHERS KEEPING IT CONFINED TO N/NERN PORTIONS /ON THE
EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING...SO AGAIN KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
CANT RULE OUT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN
CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

MORE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE REGION
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH MODELS
SHOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN REMOVING
THEM FROM ANY PARTICULAR ONE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THAT TIME GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...SATURDAY IS TRICKY WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND WARMER AIR ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHILE COOLER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT IN BEHIND MAKES
THINGS DIFFICULT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR 90 IN THE NORTH
WITH NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTH...BUT ANY CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.  ONCE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE CWA IS
SET UP BETWEEN THE COOLEST AIR CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
AND THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CONUS. THIS
LOOKS TO RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MON/TUE HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH NW SUBSIDING BELOW 10 KTS. EXCELLENT FOR
AERIAL APPLICATION ACTIVITIES.

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL INVADE ABOVE 15K
FT...BLOW-OFF FROM UPSTREAM TSRA. NW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NE.

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. NE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ063-064-074>077-
     083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251521
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1021 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
KEEP TEMPS/DWPTS ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED CURVES.

IT WAS A VERY WARM START AND THAT IS USUALLY A GOOD PLATFORM FOR
HITTING 100+. BOTH GRI AND HSI WERE AMONG THE TOP 5 WARMEST LOWS
ON RECORD FOR JUL 25TH.

THE SFC LOW WAS JUST N OF ODX AT 14Z WITH A TROF EXTENDING SW INTO
WRN KS. THE COOL FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SE THRU THE PANHANDLE AND
SANDHILLS. THIS DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. THE 14Z CONSENSUS OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH OUR CURRENT FCST. SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CHANGES
YET.

100+ WILL OCCUR ALONG AND S OF A LINE STOCKTON KS-SMITH CTR-HEBRON
NEB.

WE ARE NOTING MVFR STRATUS OVER SD ERODING AS IT DROPS INTO THE
SANDHILLS. THIS COULD BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR AVIATION/SKY
FCSTS TONIGHT. WE WILL CONT TO INTERROGATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
GIVING US PLENTY OF WARM WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US A
HEALTHY CAP. A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
...WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A BIT TRICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND
ALSO SOME MOISTURE POOLING AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A SCENARIO OF
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS.
HOWEVER...WE COULD GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HARDLY IN
AGREEMENT. WENT CLOSER WITH CONSRAW FOR HIGHS AND ALLBLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CENTERED OVER NM/NRN TX/OK...WITH RIDGE
FLATTENED THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CANADA. OUR GENERAL AREA IS SET UP IN BETWEEN THIS TWO
SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE /OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/ MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME QUESTION
REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER NRN PORTIONS /CONCERNED ABT BETTER CAPPING FURTHER SOUTH/...SO
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH ARE PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING
THE LACK OF GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS.

SHOULD THINGS AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT THERE
WOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKS ITS
WAY IN.  THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENDING UP ROUGHLY OVER NRN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BY THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD HELP TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UNFORTUNATELY PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING...OTHERS KEEPING IT CONFINED TO N/NERN PORTIONS /ON THE
EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING...SO AGAIN KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
CANT RULE OUT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN
CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

MORE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE REGION
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH MODELS
SHOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN REMOVING
THEM FROM ANY PARTICULAR ONE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THAT TIME GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...SATURDAY IS TRICKY WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND WARMER AIR ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHILE COOLER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT IN BEHIND MAKES
THINGS DIFFICULT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR 90 IN THE NORTH
WITH NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTH...BUT ANY CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.  ONCE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE CWA IS
SET UP BETWEEN THE COOLEST AIR CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
AND THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CONUS. THIS
LOOKS TO RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MON/TUE HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 15Z TAFS THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE GRI/EAR TAFS WERE AMENDED AT 1515Z TO REMOVE LATE MORNING
GUSTINESS. THE SURFACE LOW IS JUST N OF ODX AND THE PRES GRADIENT
IS WEAK. THERE IS A WSHFT THAT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS...FROM SW TO NW. THERE ARE SOME DECENT PRES RISES
BEHIND THIS WSHFT. ALL FCST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TO BELOW 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BBW/TIF/VTN ARE ALL
GUSTING 21-27 KTS AT 15Z. SO WE MAY NEED TO PUT GUSTY WINDS BACK
INTO THE TAFS AT 18Z. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR. THIS WOULD BE A
PROBLEM FOR AERIAL APPLICATION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ063-064-074>077-
     083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 251521
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1021 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
KEEP TEMPS/DWPTS ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED CURVES.

IT WAS A VERY WARM START AND THAT IS USUALLY A GOOD PLATFORM FOR
HITTING 100+. BOTH GRI AND HSI WERE AMONG THE TOP 5 WARMEST LOWS
ON RECORD FOR JUL 25TH.

THE SFC LOW WAS JUST N OF ODX AT 14Z WITH A TROF EXTENDING SW INTO
WRN KS. THE COOL FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SE THRU THE PANHANDLE AND
SANDHILLS. THIS DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. THE 14Z CONSENSUS OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH OUR CURRENT FCST. SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CHANGES
YET.

100+ WILL OCCUR ALONG AND S OF A LINE STOCKTON KS-SMITH CTR-HEBRON
NEB.

WE ARE NOTING MVFR STRATUS OVER SD ERODING AS IT DROPS INTO THE
SANDHILLS. THIS COULD BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR AVIATION/SKY
FCSTS TONIGHT. WE WILL CONT TO INTERROGATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
GIVING US PLENTY OF WARM WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US A
HEALTHY CAP. A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
...WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A BIT TRICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND
ALSO SOME MOISTURE POOLING AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A SCENARIO OF
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS.
HOWEVER...WE COULD GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HARDLY IN
AGREEMENT. WENT CLOSER WITH CONSRAW FOR HIGHS AND ALLBLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CENTERED OVER NM/NRN TX/OK...WITH RIDGE
FLATTENED THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CANADA. OUR GENERAL AREA IS SET UP IN BETWEEN THIS TWO
SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE /OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/ MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME QUESTION
REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER NRN PORTIONS /CONCERNED ABT BETTER CAPPING FURTHER SOUTH/...SO
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH ARE PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING
THE LACK OF GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS.

SHOULD THINGS AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT THERE
WOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKS ITS
WAY IN.  THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENDING UP ROUGHLY OVER NRN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BY THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD HELP TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UNFORTUNATELY PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING...OTHERS KEEPING IT CONFINED TO N/NERN PORTIONS /ON THE
EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING...SO AGAIN KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
CANT RULE OUT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN
CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

MORE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE REGION
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH MODELS
SHOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN REMOVING
THEM FROM ANY PARTICULAR ONE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THAT TIME GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...SATURDAY IS TRICKY WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND WARMER AIR ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHILE COOLER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT IN BEHIND MAKES
THINGS DIFFICULT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR 90 IN THE NORTH
WITH NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTH...BUT ANY CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.  ONCE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE CWA IS
SET UP BETWEEN THE COOLEST AIR CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
AND THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CONUS. THIS
LOOKS TO RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MON/TUE HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 15Z TAFS THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE GRI/EAR TAFS WERE AMENDED AT 1515Z TO REMOVE LATE MORNING
GUSTINESS. THE SURFACE LOW IS JUST N OF ODX AND THE PRES GRADIENT
IS WEAK. THERE IS A WSHFT THAT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS...FROM SW TO NW. THERE ARE SOME DECENT PRES RISES
BEHIND THIS WSHFT. ALL FCST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TO BELOW 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BBW/TIF/VTN ARE ALL
GUSTING 21-27 KTS AT 15Z. SO WE MAY NEED TO PUT GUSTY WINDS BACK
INTO THE TAFS AT 18Z. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR. THIS WOULD BE A
PROBLEM FOR AERIAL APPLICATION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ063-064-074>077-
     083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251505
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1005 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
KEEP TEMPS/DWPTS ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED CURVES.

IT WAS A VERY WARM START AND THAT IS USUALLY A GOOD PLATFORM FOR
HITTING 100+. BOTH GRI AND HSI WERE AMONG THE TOP 5 WARMEST LOWS
ON RECORD FOR JUL 25TH.

THE SFC LOW WAS JUST N OF ODX AT 14Z WITH A TROF EXTENDING SW INTO
WRN KS. THE COOL FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SE THRU THE PANHANDLE AND
SANDHILLS. THIS DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. THE 14Z CONSENSUS OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH OUR CURRENT FCST. SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CHANGES
YET.

100+ WILL OCCUR ALONG AND S OF A LINE STOCKTON KS-SMITH CTR-HEBRON
NEB.

WE ARE NOTING MVFR STRATUS OVER SD ERODING AS IT DROPS INTO THE
SANDHILLS. THIS COULD BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR AVIATION/SKY
FCSTS TONIGHT. WE WILL CONT TO INTERROGATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
GIVING US PLENTY OF WARM WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US A
HEALTHY CAP. A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
...WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A BIT TRICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND
ALSO SOME MOISTURE POOLING AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A SCENARIO OF
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS.
HOWEVER...WE COULD GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HARDLY IN
AGREEMENT. WENT CLOSER WITH CONSRAW FOR HIGHS AND ALLBLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CENTERED OVER NM/NRN TX/OK...WITH RIDGE
FLATTENED THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CANADA. OUR GENERAL AREA IS SET UP IN BETWEEN THIS TWO
SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE /OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/ MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME QUESTION
REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER NRN PORTIONS /CONCERNED ABT BETTER CAPPING FURTHER SOUTH/...SO
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH ARE PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING
THE LACK OF GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS.

SHOULD THINGS AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT THERE
WOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKS ITS
WAY IN.  THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENDING UP ROUGHLY OVER NRN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BY THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD HELP TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UNFORTUNATELY PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING...OTHERS KEEPING IT CONFINED TO N/NERN PORTIONS /ON THE
EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING...SO AGAIN KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
CANT RULE OUT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN
CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

MORE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE REGION
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH MODELS
SHOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN REMOVING
THEM FROM ANY PARTICULAR ONE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THAT TIME GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...SATURDAY IS TRICKY WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND WARMER AIR ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHILE COOLER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT IN BEHIND MAKES
THINGS DIFFICULT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR 90 IN THE NORTH
WITH NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTH...BUT ANY CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.  ONCE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE CWA IS
SET UP BETWEEN THE COOLEST AIR CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
AND THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CONUS. THIS
LOOKS TO RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MON/TUE HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WIND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ063-064-074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 251505
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1005 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
KEEP TEMPS/DWPTS ON TRACK WITH OBSERVED CURVES.

IT WAS A VERY WARM START AND THAT IS USUALLY A GOOD PLATFORM FOR
HITTING 100+. BOTH GRI AND HSI WERE AMONG THE TOP 5 WARMEST LOWS
ON RECORD FOR JUL 25TH.

THE SFC LOW WAS JUST N OF ODX AT 14Z WITH A TROF EXTENDING SW INTO
WRN KS. THE COOL FRONT WAS PROGRESSING SE THRU THE PANHANDLE AND
SANDHILLS. THIS DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. THE 14Z CONSENSUS OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH OUR CURRENT FCST. SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CHANGES
YET.

100+ WILL OCCUR ALONG AND S OF A LINE STOCKTON KS-SMITH CTR-HEBRON
NEB.

WE ARE NOTING MVFR STRATUS OVER SD ERODING AS IT DROPS INTO THE
SANDHILLS. THIS COULD BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR AVIATION/SKY
FCSTS TONIGHT. WE WILL CONT TO INTERROGATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
GIVING US PLENTY OF WARM WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US A
HEALTHY CAP. A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY
...WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A BIT TRICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND
ALSO SOME MOISTURE POOLING AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A SCENARIO OF
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS.
HOWEVER...WE COULD GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HARDLY IN
AGREEMENT. WENT CLOSER WITH CONSRAW FOR HIGHS AND ALLBLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CENTERED OVER NM/NRN TX/OK...WITH RIDGE
FLATTENED THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CANADA. OUR GENERAL AREA IS SET UP IN BETWEEN THIS TWO
SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE /OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/ MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME QUESTION
REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER NRN PORTIONS /CONCERNED ABT BETTER CAPPING FURTHER SOUTH/...SO
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH ARE PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING
THE LACK OF GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS.

SHOULD THINGS AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT THERE
WOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKS ITS
WAY IN.  THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENDING UP ROUGHLY OVER NRN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BY THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD HELP TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UNFORTUNATELY PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING...OTHERS KEEPING IT CONFINED TO N/NERN PORTIONS /ON THE
EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING...SO AGAIN KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
CANT RULE OUT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN
CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

MORE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE REGION
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH MODELS
SHOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN REMOVING
THEM FROM ANY PARTICULAR ONE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THAT TIME GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...SATURDAY IS TRICKY WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND WARMER AIR ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHILE COOLER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT IN BEHIND MAKES
THINGS DIFFICULT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR 90 IN THE NORTH
WITH NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTH...BUT ANY CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.  ONCE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE CWA IS
SET UP BETWEEN THE COOLEST AIR CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
AND THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CONUS. THIS
LOOKS TO RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MON/TUE HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WIND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ063-064-074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 251137 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL FRONT JUST ENTERING THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AND LAPS DATA SURFACE
TROUGH JUST OVER NORTH PLATTE. COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THE MORNING. BROAD LIFT WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE DAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH. HIGHS SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TD`S IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS WITH LOW 60S FROM ONEILL TO NORTH PLATTE AND
EAST. IR HAS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO
AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY. MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT
AND HAVE MOST PLACES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. UPPER RIDGE HAS FORECAST AREA IN FAST ZONAL FLOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS OVER NIGHT. CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OVER NIGHT.
HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS
MOVING THROUGH. LOWS GENERALLY 60 TO 65 OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL STILL CAUSE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER N
CENTRAL NEB EARLY IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...MAYBE 90.
SW NEBRASKA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S.

COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO DIVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A TREND DOWNWARD OF TEMPS. HIGHS FOR SUN IN THE
LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL ALSO USHER IN
DRIER AIR SO FORECAST IS DRY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE
50S...WHILE MONDAY HIGHS ONLY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE MID TO LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. THIS WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST...INITIALLY OUT WEST...THEN SPREADING EAST. AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...HEIGHTS WILL RISE. A SLOW WARM
UP IS EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A
FEW DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THE NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE FEW THROUGH THE DAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
OVER NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THEY WILL BE CARRIED AT EITHER KVTN OR
KLBF AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 251137 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL FRONT JUST ENTERING THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AND LAPS DATA SURFACE
TROUGH JUST OVER NORTH PLATTE. COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THE MORNING. BROAD LIFT WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE DAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH. HIGHS SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TD`S IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS WITH LOW 60S FROM ONEILL TO NORTH PLATTE AND
EAST. IR HAS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO
AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY. MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT
AND HAVE MOST PLACES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. UPPER RIDGE HAS FORECAST AREA IN FAST ZONAL FLOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS OVER NIGHT. CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OVER NIGHT.
HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS
MOVING THROUGH. LOWS GENERALLY 60 TO 65 OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL STILL CAUSE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER N
CENTRAL NEB EARLY IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...MAYBE 90.
SW NEBRASKA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S.

COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO DIVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A TREND DOWNWARD OF TEMPS. HIGHS FOR SUN IN THE
LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL ALSO USHER IN
DRIER AIR SO FORECAST IS DRY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE
50S...WHILE MONDAY HIGHS ONLY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE MID TO LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. THIS WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST...INITIALLY OUT WEST...THEN SPREADING EAST. AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...HEIGHTS WILL RISE. A SLOW WARM
UP IS EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A
FEW DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THE NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE FEW THROUGH THE DAY AND
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
OVER NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THEY WILL BE CARRIED AT EITHER KVTN OR
KLBF AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 251130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS. WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY GOING SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT FORMED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONTINUED TO ROLL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH 40-60 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 1 KM AGL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS GENERALLY ROOTED ABOVE
THE IMPRESSIVE CAP BELOW 750 MB FROM 00Z KOAX SOUNDING. A FEW THINGS
NOTED FROM THAT SOUNDING...700-500 MB LAPSE RATE WAS 7.8 DEGREES C
PER KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.38 INCHES. THIS MORNING WAS A
PERFECT EXAMPLE OF HOW WE CAN GET OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EVEN WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 14-15 DEGREES C. CASES LIKE THIS THOUGH ARE
VERY HARD TO PREDICT OVER ABOUT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE.

MAIN FEATURES NOTED FROM 00Z UPPER AIR PLOT AT 500 MB WERE THE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND THE RIDGE THAT STRETCHED FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. VERY
IMPRESSIVE 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS...ESTIMATED AT UP TO 140 METERS...
WERE NEAR THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO COLORADO.

THE CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN OPEN UP A BIT AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS WILL WOBBLE A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
EXTENSION OF THAT HIGH THOUGH WILL BUILD UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH SUNDAY AS TROUGHS DIG OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...PUTTING OUR AREA IN MODEST TO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW.

TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA WITH WARM MILD LEVELS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING
TO GET SOME ISOLATED STORMS GOING BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR STORMS TO
AGAIN ROLL EASTWARD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. THAT ACTIVITY WOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING
A STELLAR JOB WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECENT SREF
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN SOME WEAK 700-500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
TONIGHT...THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH ANYTHING...BUT WILL KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MAINLY 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. SPC DAY 2 OTLK
DOES HAVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK (I THINK
MOSTLY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING) AND FOR NOW THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS
TODAY...GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER. BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT
FRI JUL 25 2014

WE STILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. PCPN CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK SMALL...WITH ONLY FAIR MODEL
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO GET TSTMS GOING.
THE 500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY A BIT AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS. WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY GOING SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT FORMED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONTINUED TO ROLL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH 40-60 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 1 KM AGL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS GENERALLY ROOTED ABOVE
THE IMPRESSIVE CAP BELOW 750 MB FROM 00Z KOAX SOUNDING. A FEW THINGS
NOTED FROM THAT SOUNDING...700-500 MB LAPSE RATE WAS 7.8 DEGREES C
PER KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.38 INCHES. THIS MORNING WAS A
PERFECT EXAMPLE OF HOW WE CAN GET OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EVEN WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 14-15 DEGREES C. CASES LIKE THIS THOUGH ARE
VERY HARD TO PREDICT OVER ABOUT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE.

MAIN FEATURES NOTED FROM 00Z UPPER AIR PLOT AT 500 MB WERE THE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND THE RIDGE THAT STRETCHED FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. VERY
IMPRESSIVE 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS...ESTIMATED AT UP TO 140 METERS...
WERE NEAR THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO COLORADO.

THE CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN OPEN UP A BIT AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS WILL WOBBLE A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
EXTENSION OF THAT HIGH THOUGH WILL BUILD UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH SUNDAY AS TROUGHS DIG OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...PUTTING OUR AREA IN MODEST TO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW.

TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA WITH WARM MILD LEVELS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING
TO GET SOME ISOLATED STORMS GOING BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR STORMS TO
AGAIN ROLL EASTWARD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. THAT ACTIVITY WOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING
A STELLAR JOB WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECENT SREF
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN SOME WEAK 700-500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
TONIGHT...THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH ANYTHING...BUT WILL KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MAINLY 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. SPC DAY 2 OTLK
DOES HAVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK (I THINK
MOSTLY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING) AND FOR NOW THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS
TODAY...GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER. BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT
FRI JUL 25 2014

WE STILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. PCPN CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK SMALL...WITH ONLY FAIR MODEL
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO GET TSTMS GOING.
THE 500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY A BIT AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KGID 251046
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GIVING US PLENTY OF WARM WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE
US A HEALTHY CAP. A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA
TODAY...WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A BIT TRICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND
ALSO SOME MOISTURE POOLING AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A SCENARIO OF
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS. HOWEVER...WE
COULD GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HARDLY IN AGREEMENT. WENT
CLOSER WITH CONSRAW FOR HIGHS AND ALLBLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CENTERED OVER NM/NRN TX/OK...WITH RIDGE
FLATTENED THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CANADA. OUR GENERAL AREA IS SET UP IN BETWEEN THIS TWO
SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE /OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/ MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME QUESTION
REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER NRN PORTIONS /CONCERNED ABT BETTER CAPPING FURTHER SOUTH/...SO
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH ARE PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING
THE LACK OF GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS.

SHOULD THINGS AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT THERE
WOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKS ITS
WAY IN.  THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENDING UP ROUGHLY OVER NRN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BY THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD HELP TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UNFORTUNATELY PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING...OTHERS KEEPING IT CONFINED TO N/NERN PORTIONS /ON THE
EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING...SO AGAIN KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
CANT RULE OUT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN
CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

MORE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE REGION
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH MODELS
SHOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN REMOVING
THEM FROM ANY PARTICULAR ONE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THAT TIME GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...SATURDAY IS TRICKY WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND WARMER AIR ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHILE COOLER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT IN BEHIND MAKES
THINGS DIFFICULT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR 90 IN THE NORTH
WITH NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTH...BUT ANY CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.  ONCE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE CWA IS
SET UP BETWEEN THE COOLEST AIR CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
AND THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CONUS. THIS
LOOKS TO RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MON/TUE HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WIND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ063-064-074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 251046
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GIVING US PLENTY OF WARM WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE
US A HEALTHY CAP. A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA
TODAY...WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A BIT TRICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND
ALSO SOME MOISTURE POOLING AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A SCENARIO OF
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS. HOWEVER...WE
COULD GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HARDLY IN AGREEMENT. WENT
CLOSER WITH CONSRAW FOR HIGHS AND ALLBLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CENTERED OVER NM/NRN TX/OK...WITH RIDGE
FLATTENED THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CANADA. OUR GENERAL AREA IS SET UP IN BETWEEN THIS TWO
SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE /OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/ MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME QUESTION
REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER NRN PORTIONS /CONCERNED ABT BETTER CAPPING FURTHER SOUTH/...SO
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH ARE PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING
THE LACK OF GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS.

SHOULD THINGS AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT THERE
WOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKS ITS
WAY IN.  THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENDING UP ROUGHLY OVER NRN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BY THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD HELP TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UNFORTUNATELY PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING...OTHERS KEEPING IT CONFINED TO N/NERN PORTIONS /ON THE
EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING...SO AGAIN KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
CANT RULE OUT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN
CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

MORE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE REGION
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH MODELS
SHOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN REMOVING
THEM FROM ANY PARTICULAR ONE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THAT TIME GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...SATURDAY IS TRICKY WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND WARMER AIR ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHILE COOLER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT IN BEHIND MAKES
THINGS DIFFICULT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR 90 IN THE NORTH
WITH NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTH...BUT ANY CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.  ONCE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE CWA IS
SET UP BETWEEN THE COOLEST AIR CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
AND THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CONUS. THIS
LOOKS TO RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MON/TUE HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WIND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ063-064-074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 251046
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GIVING US PLENTY OF WARM WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE
US A HEALTHY CAP. A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA
TODAY...WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A BIT TRICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND
ALSO SOME MOISTURE POOLING AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A SCENARIO OF
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS. HOWEVER...WE
COULD GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HARDLY IN AGREEMENT. WENT
CLOSER WITH CONSRAW FOR HIGHS AND ALLBLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CENTERED OVER NM/NRN TX/OK...WITH RIDGE
FLATTENED THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CANADA. OUR GENERAL AREA IS SET UP IN BETWEEN THIS TWO
SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE /OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/ MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME QUESTION
REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER NRN PORTIONS /CONCERNED ABT BETTER CAPPING FURTHER SOUTH/...SO
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH ARE PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING
THE LACK OF GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS.

SHOULD THINGS AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT THERE
WOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKS ITS
WAY IN.  THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENDING UP ROUGHLY OVER NRN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BY THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD HELP TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UNFORTUNATELY PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING...OTHERS KEEPING IT CONFINED TO N/NERN PORTIONS /ON THE
EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING...SO AGAIN KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
CANT RULE OUT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN
CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

MORE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE REGION
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH MODELS
SHOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN REMOVING
THEM FROM ANY PARTICULAR ONE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THAT TIME GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...SATURDAY IS TRICKY WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND WARMER AIR ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHILE COOLER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT IN BEHIND MAKES
THINGS DIFFICULT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR 90 IN THE NORTH
WITH NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTH...BUT ANY CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.  ONCE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE CWA IS
SET UP BETWEEN THE COOLEST AIR CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
AND THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CONUS. THIS
LOOKS TO RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MON/TUE HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WIND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ063-064-074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 251046
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GIVING US PLENTY OF WARM WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE
US A HEALTHY CAP. A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA
TODAY...WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A BIT TRICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND
ALSO SOME MOISTURE POOLING AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A SCENARIO OF
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS. HOWEVER...WE
COULD GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HARDLY IN AGREEMENT. WENT
CLOSER WITH CONSRAW FOR HIGHS AND ALLBLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CENTERED OVER NM/NRN TX/OK...WITH RIDGE
FLATTENED THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CANADA. OUR GENERAL AREA IS SET UP IN BETWEEN THIS TWO
SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE /OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/ MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME QUESTION
REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER NRN PORTIONS /CONCERNED ABT BETTER CAPPING FURTHER SOUTH/...SO
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH ARE PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING
THE LACK OF GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS.

SHOULD THINGS AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT THERE
WOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKS ITS
WAY IN.  THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENDING UP ROUGHLY OVER NRN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BY THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD HELP TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UNFORTUNATELY PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING...OTHERS KEEPING IT CONFINED TO N/NERN PORTIONS /ON THE
EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING...SO AGAIN KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
CANT RULE OUT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN
CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

MORE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE REGION
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH MODELS
SHOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN REMOVING
THEM FROM ANY PARTICULAR ONE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THAT TIME GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...SATURDAY IS TRICKY WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND WARMER AIR ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHILE COOLER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT IN BEHIND MAKES
THINGS DIFFICULT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR 90 IN THE NORTH
WITH NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTH...BUT ANY CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.  ONCE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE CWA IS
SET UP BETWEEN THE COOLEST AIR CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
AND THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CONUS. THIS
LOOKS TO RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MON/TUE HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALSO...WIND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...CLOSER TO THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ063-064-074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 250924
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
424 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GIVING US PLENTY OF WARM WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE
US A HEALTHY CAP. A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA
TODAY...WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A BIT TRICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND
ALSO SOME MOISTURE POOLING AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A SCENARIO OF
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS. HOWEVER...WE
COULD GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HARDLY IN AGREEMENT. WENT
CLOSER WITH CONSRAW FOR HIGHS AND ALLBLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CENTERED OVER NM/NRN TX/OK...WITH RIDGE
FLATTENED THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CANADA. OUR GENERAL AREA IS SET UP IN BETWEEN THIS TWO
SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE /OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/ MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME QUESTION
REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER NRN PORTIONS /CONCERNED ABT BETTER CAPPING FURTHER SOUTH/...SO
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH ARE PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING
THE LACK OF GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS.

SHOULD THINGS AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT THERE
WOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKS ITS
WAY IN.  THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENDING UP ROUGHLY OVER NRN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BY THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD HELP TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UNFORTUNATELY PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING...OTHERS KEEPING IT CONFINED TO N/NERN PORTIONS /ON THE
EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING...SO AGAIN KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
CANT RULE OUT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN
CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

MORE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE REGION
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH MODELS
SHOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN REMOVING
THEM FROM ANY PARTICULAR ONE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THAT TIME GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...SATURDAY IS TRICKY WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND WARMER AIR ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHILE COOLER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT IN BEHIND MAKES
THINGS DIFFICULT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR 90 IN THE NORTH
WITH NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTH...BUT ANY CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.  ONCE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE CWA IS
SET UP BETWEEN THE COOLEST AIR CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
AND THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CONUS. THIS
LOOKS TO RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MON/TUE HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...WIND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND MOSTLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ063-064-074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 250924
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
424 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX TODAY...AND ALSO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GIVING US PLENTY OF WARM WEATHER AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE
US A HEALTHY CAP. A COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA
TODAY...WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A BIT TRICKY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY AND
ALSO SOME MOISTURE POOLING AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A SCENARIO OF
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN A BIT...BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS. HOWEVER...WE
COULD GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...SO I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE HARDLY IN AGREEMENT. WENT
CLOSER WITH CONSRAW FOR HIGHS AND ALLBLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CENTERED OVER NM/NRN TX/OK...WITH RIDGE
FLATTENED THANKS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CANADA. OUR GENERAL AREA IS SET UP IN BETWEEN THIS TWO
SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...MAINLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE /OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/ MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...AND SOME QUESTION
REMAINS WITH WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAINLY
OVER NRN PORTIONS /CONCERNED ABT BETTER CAPPING FURTHER SOUTH/...SO
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST...WHICH ARE PRETTY LOW CONSIDERING
THE LACK OF GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS.

SHOULD THINGS AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT THERE
WOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKS ITS
WAY IN.  THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
SHOWN BY MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENDING UP ROUGHLY OVER NRN MN BY 12Z
SUNDAY.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BY THIS SYSTEM...AND WOULD HELP TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UNFORTUNATELY PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING...OTHERS KEEPING IT CONFINED TO N/NERN PORTIONS /ON THE
EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING...SO AGAIN KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
CANT RULE OUT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN
CANADA...PUTTING OUR AREA BACK IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NO NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

MORE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE REGION
REMAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH MODELS
SHOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH AND BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN REMOVING
THEM FROM ANY PARTICULAR ONE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT...BUT WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS THAT TIME GETS CLOSER AND
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...SATURDAY IS TRICKY WITH A DAYTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL AND WARMER AIR ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHILE COOLER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT IN BEHIND MAKES
THINGS DIFFICULT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR 90 IN THE NORTH
WITH NEAR 100 IN THE SOUTH...BUT ANY CHANGES IN MODEL TIMING WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.  ONCE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM/FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE CWA IS
SET UP BETWEEN THE COOLEST AIR CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
AND THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CONUS. THIS
LOOKS TO RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MON/TUE HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...WIND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND MOSTLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ063-064-074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 250848
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

..SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL FRONT JUST ENTERING THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AND LAPS DATA SURFACE
TROUGH JUST OVER NORTH PLATTE. COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THE MORNING. BROAD LIFT WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE DAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH. HIGHS SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TD`S IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS WITH LOW 60S FROM ONEILL TO NORTH PLATTE AND
EAST. IR HAS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO
AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY. MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT
AND HAVE MOST PLACES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. UPPER RIDGE HAS FORECAST AREA IN FAST ZONAL FLOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS OVER NIGHT. CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OVER NIGHT.
HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS
MOVING THROUGH. LOWS GENERALLY 60 TO 65 OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL STILL CAUSE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER N
CENTRAL NEB EARLY IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...MAYBE 90.
SW NEBRASKA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S.

COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO DIVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A TREND DOWNWARD OF TEMPS. HIGHS FOR SUN IN THE
LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL ALSO USHER IN
DRIER AIR SO FORECAST IS DRY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE
50S...WHILE MONDAY HIGHS ONLY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE MID TO LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. THIS WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST...INITIALLY OUT WEST...THEN SPREADING EAST. AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...HEIGHTS WILL RISE. A SLOW WARM
UP IS EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A
FEW DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THE NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS KVTN BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z AND KLBF
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
NEAR 32014G21KT THEN VEER NORTH AND DIMINISH AFTER 18Z TO AOB
12KT. ONLY A FEW CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTN FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 250848
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

..SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL FRONT JUST ENTERING THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS AND LAPS DATA SURFACE
TROUGH JUST OVER NORTH PLATTE. COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THE MORNING. BROAD LIFT WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE DAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH. HIGHS SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST AREAS. WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TD`S IN THE 40S AND 50S OVER THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS WITH LOW 60S FROM ONEILL TO NORTH PLATTE AND
EAST. IR HAS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO
AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY. MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT
AND HAVE MOST PLACES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. UPPER RIDGE HAS FORECAST AREA IN FAST ZONAL FLOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS OVER NIGHT. CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
CONTINUING OVER THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 OVER NIGHT.
HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS
MOVING THROUGH. LOWS GENERALLY 60 TO 65 OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL STILL CAUSE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER N
CENTRAL NEB EARLY IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...MAYBE 90.
SW NEBRASKA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S.

COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO DIVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A TREND DOWNWARD OF TEMPS. HIGHS FOR SUN IN THE
LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL ALSO USHER IN
DRIER AIR SO FORECAST IS DRY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE
50S...WHILE MONDAY HIGHS ONLY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE MID TO LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. THIS WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST...INITIALLY OUT WEST...THEN SPREADING EAST. AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...HEIGHTS WILL RISE. A SLOW WARM
UP IS EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. A
FEW DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THE NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS KVTN BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z AND KLBF
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
NEAR 32014G21KT THEN VEER NORTH AND DIMINISH AFTER 18Z TO AOB
12KT. ONLY A FEW CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTN FRIDAY...THEN
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KOAX 250830
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS. WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY GOING SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT FORMED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONTINUED TO ROLL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH 40-60 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 1 KM AGL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS GENERALLY ROOTED ABOVE
THE IMPRESSIVE CAP BELOW 750 MB FROM 00Z KOAX SOUNDING. A FEW THINGS
NOTED FROM THAT SOUNDING...700-500 MB LAPSE RATE WAS 7.8 DEGREES C
PER KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.38 INCHES. THIS MORNING WAS A
PERFECT EXAMPLE OF HOW WE CAN GET OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EVEN WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 14-15 DEGREES C. CASES LIKE THIS THOUGH ARE
VERY HARD TO PREDICT OVER ABOUT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE.

MAIN FEATURES NOTED FROM 00Z UPPER AIR PLOT AT 500 MB WERE THE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND THE RIDGE THAT STRETCHED FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. VERY
IMPRESSIVE 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS...ESTIMATED AT UP TO 140 METERS...
WERE NEAR THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO COLORADO.

THE CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN OPEN UP A BIT AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS WILL WOBBLE A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
EXTENSION OF THAT HIGH THOUGH WILL BUILD UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH SUNDAY AS TR
OUGHS DIG OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...PUTTING OUR AREA IN MODEST TO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW.

TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA WITH WARM MILD LEVELS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE
105 TO 110 RANGE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING
TO GET SOME ISOLATED STORMS GOING BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR STORMS TO
AGAIN ROLL EASTWARD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. THAT ACTIVITY WOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING
A STELLAR JOB WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT THIS IS
TO BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECENT SREF
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN SOME WEAK 700-500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
TONIGHT...THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH ANYTHING...BUT WILL KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MAINLY 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. SPC DAY 2 OTLK
DOES HAVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK (I THINK
MOSTLY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING) AND FOR NOW THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS
TODAY...GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER. BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDA
Y NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WE STILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. PCPN CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK SMALL...WITH ONLY FAIR MODEL
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO GET TSTMS GOING.
THE 500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY A BIT AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIALLY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 12 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6-8Z AT KOFK AND 7-09Z AT KLNK AND 8-10Z
AT KOMA. BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO MAKE THEIR WAY TO THOSE SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD/GROSS




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250830
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS. WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY GOING SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT FORMED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONTINUED TO ROLL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH 40-60 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 1 KM AGL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS GENERALLY ROOTED ABOVE
THE IMPRESSIVE CAP BELOW 750 MB FROM 00Z KOAX SOUNDING. A FEW THINGS
NOTED FROM THAT SOUNDING...700-500 MB LAPSE RATE WAS 7.8 DEGREES C
PER KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.38 INCHES. THIS MORNING WAS A
PERFECT EXAMPLE OF HOW WE CAN GET OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EVEN WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 14-15 DEGREES C. CASES LIKE THIS THOUGH ARE
VERY HARD TO PREDICT OVER ABOUT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE.

MAIN FEATURES NOTED FROM 00Z UPPER AIR PLOT AT 500 MB WERE THE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND THE RIDGE THAT STRETCHED FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. VERY
IMPRESSIVE 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS...ESTIMATED AT UP TO 140 METERS...
WERE NEAR THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO COLORADO.

THE CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN OPEN UP A BIT AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS WILL WOBBLE A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
EXTENSION OF THAT HIGH THOUGH WILL BUILD UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH SUNDAY AS TR
OUGHS DIG OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...PUTTING OUR AREA IN MODEST TO STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW.

TODAY...CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES. THIS
LEAVES OUR AREA WITH WARM MILD LEVELS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE
105 TO 110 RANGE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING
TO GET SOME ISOLATED STORMS GOING BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. OTHERWISE...WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR STORMS TO
AGAIN ROLL EASTWARD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. THAT ACTIVITY WOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING
A STELLAR JOB WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT THIS IS
TO BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECENT SREF
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN SOME WEAK 700-500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
TONIGHT...THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH ANYTHING...BUT WILL KEEP SOME 20-40 POPS IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MAINLY 20 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. SPC DAY 2 OTLK
DOES HAVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK (I THINK
MOSTLY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING) AND FOR NOW THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS
TODAY...GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES COOLER. BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDA
Y NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WE STILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. PCPN CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK SMALL...WITH ONLY FAIR MODEL
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO GET TSTMS GOING.
THE 500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY A BIT AS THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIALLY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 12 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6-8Z AT KOFK AND 7-09Z AT KLNK AND 8-10Z
AT KOMA. BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO MAKE THEIR WAY TO THOSE SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ065>068-078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD/GROSS



000
FXUS63 KGID 250600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD. 12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
IN ADDITION TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A STOUT MID LEVEL WARM POCKET OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD WHICH WOULD
TYPICALLY CAP OFF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS BEING
SAID...AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF
A WEAK VORT MAX. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION HOLDING ON AND SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE LATER
EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAT TOMORROW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 100
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE KANSAS COUNTIES WITH UPPER 90S SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...WE
SHOULD APPROACH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105+ RANGE. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND ALL THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE FOR
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 60S FOR LOWS.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS PUT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS PCPN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...WILL LEAVE THESE CHANCES IN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...WIND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND MOSTLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ063-064-074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 250600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD. 12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
IN ADDITION TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A STOUT MID LEVEL WARM POCKET OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD WHICH WOULD
TYPICALLY CAP OFF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS BEING
SAID...AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF
A WEAK VORT MAX. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION HOLDING ON AND SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE LATER
EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAT TOMORROW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 100
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE KANSAS COUNTIES WITH UPPER 90S SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...WE
SHOULD APPROACH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105+ RANGE. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND ALL THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE FOR
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 60S FOR LOWS.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS PUT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS PCPN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...WILL LEAVE THESE CHANCES IN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN IS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...WIND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND MOSTLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ063-064-074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 250545 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL MAINTAIN 65
TO 70F DEW POINTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SUTHERLAND TO CURTIS
LINE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED OVER 100F WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE CAPPING INVERSION. IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES NEARING 3500 J/KG AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR
NEAR 35 KTS. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR
EVEN SEVERE. AGAIN THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL AS A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION MUST BE OVERCOME FIRST.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN AN ISOLATED FASHION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING. THESE STORMS ARE HIGH
BASED IN A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT TO THE WEST OF THE DRY
LINE. AIDED BY THE WEAK SHORTWAVE...THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK EAST
INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND UNORGANIZED AS THE AREA
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A BIT OF COOLING TO THE AREA FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THE DRY LINE CROSSES THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND COULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS IT COMES
ACROSS THOUGH COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED.

THE DRY LINE PRESSES THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...THE
MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO
MORE THAN 1.25 INCHES...SO MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EAST OF VALENTINE-NORTH PLATTE. SINCE THE DRY LINE BULGE IS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY IS NOT
STRONG AND SEVERE WEATHER WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED.

AFTER THE DRY LINE STALLS ON ABOUT A VALENTINE-NORTH PLATTE LINE...
THE INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR...AT 40-50KT IS FAVORABLE AND SURFACE-BASED
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENERGY EXCEEDS 5000J/KG. THE WINDOW FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NARROW...LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
THE FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH.

AFTER THE FRONT...COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND RETURN FLOW BRINGS
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE
WOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS KVTN BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z AND KLBF
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR
32014G21KT THEN VEER NORTH AND DIMINISH AFTER 18Z TO AOB 12KT. ONLY
A FEW CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTN FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 250545 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL MAINTAIN 65
TO 70F DEW POINTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SUTHERLAND TO CURTIS
LINE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED OVER 100F WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE CAPPING INVERSION. IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES NEARING 3500 J/KG AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR
NEAR 35 KTS. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR
EVEN SEVERE. AGAIN THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL AS A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION MUST BE OVERCOME FIRST.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN AN ISOLATED FASHION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING. THESE STORMS ARE HIGH
BASED IN A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT TO THE WEST OF THE DRY
LINE. AIDED BY THE WEAK SHORTWAVE...THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK EAST
INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND UNORGANIZED AS THE AREA
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A BIT OF COOLING TO THE AREA FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THE DRY LINE CROSSES THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND COULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS IT COMES
ACROSS THOUGH COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED.

THE DRY LINE PRESSES THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...THE
MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO
MORE THAN 1.25 INCHES...SO MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EAST OF VALENTINE-NORTH PLATTE. SINCE THE DRY LINE BULGE IS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY IS NOT
STRONG AND SEVERE WEATHER WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED.

AFTER THE DRY LINE STALLS ON ABOUT A VALENTINE-NORTH PLATTE LINE...
THE INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR...AT 40-50KT IS FAVORABLE AND SURFACE-BASED
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENERGY EXCEEDS 5000J/KG. THE WINDOW FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NARROW...LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
THE FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH.

AFTER THE FRONT...COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND RETURN FLOW BRINGS
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE
WOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS KVTN BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z AND KLBF
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR
32014G21KT THEN VEER NORTH AND DIMINISH AFTER 18Z TO AOB 12KT. ONLY
A FEW CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTN FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 250545 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL MAINTAIN 65
TO 70F DEW POINTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SUTHERLAND TO CURTIS
LINE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED OVER 100F WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE CAPPING INVERSION. IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES NEARING 3500 J/KG AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR
NEAR 35 KTS. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR
EVEN SEVERE. AGAIN THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL AS A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION MUST BE OVERCOME FIRST.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN AN ISOLATED FASHION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING. THESE STORMS ARE HIGH
BASED IN A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT TO THE WEST OF THE DRY
LINE. AIDED BY THE WEAK SHORTWAVE...THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK EAST
INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND UNORGANIZED AS THE AREA
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A BIT OF COOLING TO THE AREA FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THE DRY LINE CROSSES THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND COULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS IT COMES
ACROSS THOUGH COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED.

THE DRY LINE PRESSES THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...THE
MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO
MORE THAN 1.25 INCHES...SO MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EAST OF VALENTINE-NORTH PLATTE. SINCE THE DRY LINE BULGE IS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY IS NOT
STRONG AND SEVERE WEATHER WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED.

AFTER THE DRY LINE STALLS ON ABOUT A VALENTINE-NORTH PLATTE LINE...
THE INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR...AT 40-50KT IS FAVORABLE AND SURFACE-BASED
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENERGY EXCEEDS 5000J/KG. THE WINDOW FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NARROW...LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
THE FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH.

AFTER THE FRONT...COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND RETURN FLOW BRINGS
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE
WOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS KVTN BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z AND KLBF
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR
32014G21KT THEN VEER NORTH AND DIMINISH AFTER 18Z TO AOB 12KT. ONLY
A FEW CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTN FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 250545 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL MAINTAIN 65
TO 70F DEW POINTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SUTHERLAND TO CURTIS
LINE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED OVER 100F WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE CAPPING INVERSION. IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES NEARING 3500 J/KG AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR
NEAR 35 KTS. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR
EVEN SEVERE. AGAIN THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL AS A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION MUST BE OVERCOME FIRST.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN AN ISOLATED FASHION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING. THESE STORMS ARE HIGH
BASED IN A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT TO THE WEST OF THE DRY
LINE. AIDED BY THE WEAK SHORTWAVE...THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK EAST
INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND UNORGANIZED AS THE AREA
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A BIT OF COOLING TO THE AREA FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THE DRY LINE CROSSES THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND COULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS IT COMES
ACROSS THOUGH COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED.

THE DRY LINE PRESSES THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...THE
MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO
MORE THAN 1.25 INCHES...SO MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EAST OF VALENTINE-NORTH PLATTE. SINCE THE DRY LINE BULGE IS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY IS NOT
STRONG AND SEVERE WEATHER WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED.

AFTER THE DRY LINE STALLS ON ABOUT A VALENTINE-NORTH PLATTE LINE...
THE INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR...AT 40-50KT IS FAVORABLE AND SURFACE-BASED
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENERGY EXCEEDS 5000J/KG. THE WINDOW FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NARROW...LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
THE FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH.

AFTER THE FRONT...COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND RETURN FLOW BRINGS
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE
WOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS KVTN BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z AND KLBF
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR
32014G21KT THEN VEER NORTH AND DIMINISH AFTER 18Z TO AOB 12KT. ONLY
A FEW CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTN FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 250430
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SEEMS
TO MAINTAINING ITSELF BASED ON RADAR/LIGHTNING/SATELLITE TRENDS...
AND COULD VERY WELL CONTINUE ROLL EAST SOUTHEAST AS IT REMAINS
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL MOIST JET AXIS TONIGHT. MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL
RUNS SEEM TO CAPTURE THIS TREND WELL...THUS THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO AT LEAST INCLUDE SOME CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL LIE ALONG THE
PLATTE RIVER BASIN. FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND 15000 FEET AND WET
BULB ZERO LEVELS AROUND 11600 FEET. THUS LARGE HAIL WILL BE HARD
TO ACHIEVE...BUT SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
30 TO 45 MPH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE IN.

A COUPLE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WERE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
KSUX AREA...AND THIS MAY BE THE PRECURSOR TO ACTIVITY THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA...BUT THE WESTERN EDGE COULD ALSO CLIP
OUR COUNTIES IN WESTERN IOWA AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ALTHOUGH 00Z OMAHA SOUNDING AND SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATED A
FORMIDABLE CAP/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FA...ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DEVELOP TOWARD NWRN ZONES
SHORTLY BEFORE 02Z. RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY
TOWARD ALBION BY 03-04Z. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCLUDE POPS AS
FAR EAST AS LINCOLN TO NEAR FREMONT THROUGH 07Z BEFORE PRECIP
POSSIBLY SHUTS OFF DUE TO ITS FARTHER EAST REMOVAL OF ITS ELEVATED
ROOTS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND SOME SHORT RANGE
MODELS BROUGHT AN MCS ACROSS LINCOLN/OMAHA TONIGHT. SECOND AREA
WHERE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER WOULD NEAR EDGE OF WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT/CAP...ACROSS FAR ERN ZONES. NO MENTION WAS MADE THERE
JUST YET. NEEDLESS TO SAY...RADAR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS FORECAST IS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
EDGE OF THE INCREASING CAP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CONT TO AFFECT
A SMALL PORTION OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES TO STRONG FOR OUR CWA.
OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GET GOING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOWER 100S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR CI. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WANT TO TRY AND MAKE IT INTO NE NEB
LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE FEEL THIS APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN
THE INCREASE CAP AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF DEEP MIXING. THUS IT SHOULD
BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT WARM NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE CDFNT TIMING FOR
FRI AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE EC/GEM OF YESTERDAY. THUS HIGHS IN THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN CAPPED OVER THE FA GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING MOISTURE LOCKED INTO THE FA.
TSRA MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRI AFTN AND ATTEMPT TO ROLL ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL
CAP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER NRN NEB/SRN SD FRI NIGHT. THE
NAM/EC ARE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS PATTERN AS THE GFS SCOURS OUT
MORE OF THE MOISTURE POST FRONTAL. CURRENTLY WE PREFER MORE THE
EC/NAM LOOK TO THE PATTERN AND WILL CONT WITH SOME POPS AFTER 09Z
FRI NIGHT. SOME CONVECTION MAY TRY AND LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SAT
OR REGENERATE GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGH
SLIDING SEWD THROUGH THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES FAVOR SOME CONVECTION ON
SAT...EITHER A CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE AFTN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT AN ISO SVR THREAT IF THIS
PATTERN ENDS UP DEVELOPING. ONCE THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA ON SAT EVENING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO END
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL APPEARS QUIET WITH SEASONABLY
COOL AIR IN PLACE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY FOR MON/TUE BEFORE TEMPERATURES
START TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY
MID WEEK WE WILL CONT TO MENTION THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIALLY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 12 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6-8Z AT KOFK AND 7-09Z AT KLNK AND 8-10Z
AT KOMA. BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO MAKE THEIR WAY TO THOSE SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD/GROSS



000
FXUS63 KOAX 250430
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SEEMS
TO MAINTAINING ITSELF BASED ON RADAR/LIGHTNING/SATELLITE TRENDS...
AND COULD VERY WELL CONTINUE ROLL EAST SOUTHEAST AS IT REMAINS
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL MOIST JET AXIS TONIGHT. MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL
RUNS SEEM TO CAPTURE THIS TREND WELL...THUS THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO AT LEAST INCLUDE SOME CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL LIE ALONG THE
PLATTE RIVER BASIN. FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND 15000 FEET AND WET
BULB ZERO LEVELS AROUND 11600 FEET. THUS LARGE HAIL WILL BE HARD
TO ACHIEVE...BUT SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
30 TO 45 MPH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE IN.

A COUPLE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WERE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
KSUX AREA...AND THIS MAY BE THE PRECURSOR TO ACTIVITY THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA...BUT THE WESTERN EDGE COULD ALSO CLIP
OUR COUNTIES IN WESTERN IOWA AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ALTHOUGH 00Z OMAHA SOUNDING AND SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATED A
FORMIDABLE CAP/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FA...ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DEVELOP TOWARD NWRN ZONES
SHORTLY BEFORE 02Z. RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY
TOWARD ALBION BY 03-04Z. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCLUDE POPS AS
FAR EAST AS LINCOLN TO NEAR FREMONT THROUGH 07Z BEFORE PRECIP
POSSIBLY SHUTS OFF DUE TO ITS FARTHER EAST REMOVAL OF ITS ELEVATED
ROOTS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND SOME SHORT RANGE
MODELS BROUGHT AN MCS ACROSS LINCOLN/OMAHA TONIGHT. SECOND AREA
WHERE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER WOULD NEAR EDGE OF WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT/CAP...ACROSS FAR ERN ZONES. NO MENTION WAS MADE THERE
JUST YET. NEEDLESS TO SAY...RADAR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS FORECAST IS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
EDGE OF THE INCREASING CAP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CONT TO AFFECT
A SMALL PORTION OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES TO STRONG FOR OUR CWA.
OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GET GOING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOWER 100S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR CI. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WANT TO TRY AND MAKE IT INTO NE NEB
LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE FEEL THIS APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN
THE INCREASE CAP AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF DEEP MIXING. THUS IT SHOULD
BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT WARM NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE CDFNT TIMING FOR
FRI AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE EC/GEM OF YESTERDAY. THUS HIGHS IN THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN CAPPED OVER THE FA GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING MOISTURE LOCKED INTO THE FA.
TSRA MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRI AFTN AND ATTEMPT TO ROLL ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL
CAP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER NRN NEB/SRN SD FRI NIGHT. THE
NAM/EC ARE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS PATTERN AS THE GFS SCOURS OUT
MORE OF THE MOISTURE POST FRONTAL. CURRENTLY WE PREFER MORE THE
EC/NAM LOOK TO THE PATTERN AND WILL CONT WITH SOME POPS AFTER 09Z
FRI NIGHT. SOME CONVECTION MAY TRY AND LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SAT
OR REGENERATE GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGH
SLIDING SEWD THROUGH THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES FAVOR SOME CONVECTION ON
SAT...EITHER A CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE AFTN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT AN ISO SVR THREAT IF THIS
PATTERN ENDS UP DEVELOPING. ONCE THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA ON SAT EVENING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO END
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL APPEARS QUIET WITH SEASONABLY
COOL AIR IN PLACE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY FOR MON/TUE BEFORE TEMPERATURES
START TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY
MID WEEK WE WILL CONT TO MENTION THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIALLY...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 12 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6-8Z AT KOFK AND 7-09Z AT KLNK AND 8-10Z
AT KOMA. BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO MAKE THEIR WAY TO THOSE SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD/GROSS




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250155
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
855 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ALTHOUGH 00Z OMAHA SOUNDING AND SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATED A
FORMIDABLE CAP/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FA...ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DEVELOP TOWARD NWRN ZONES
SHORTLY BEFORE 02Z. RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY
TOWARD ALBION BY 03-04Z. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCLUDE POPS AS
FAR EAST AS LINCOLN TO NEAR FREMONT THROUGH 07Z BEFORE PRECIP
POSSIBLY SHUTS OFF DUE TO ITS FARTHER EAST REMOVAL OF ITS ELEVATED
ROOTS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND SOME SHORT RANGE
MODELS BROUGHT AN MCS ACROSS LINCOLN/OMAHA TONIGHT. SECOND AREA
WHERE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER WOULD NEAR EDGE OF WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT/CAP...ACROSS FAR ERN ZONES. NO MENTION WAS MADE THERE
JUST YET. NEEDLESS TO SAY...RADAR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS FORECAST IS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
EDGE OF THE INCREASING CAP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CONT TO AFFECT
A SMALL PORTION OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES TO STRONG FOR OUR CWA.
OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GET GOING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOWER 100S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR CI. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WANT TO TRY AND MAKE IT INTO NE NEB
LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE FEEL THIS APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN
THE INCREASE CAP AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF DEEP MIXING. THUS IT SHOULD
BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT WARM NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE CDFNT TIMING FOR
FRI AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE EC/GEM OF YESTERDAY. THUS HIGHS IN THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN CAPPED OVER THE FA GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING MOISTURE LOCKED INTO THE FA.
TSRA MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRI AFTN AND ATTEMPT TO ROLL ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL
CAP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER NRN NEB/SRN SD FRI NIGHT. THE
NAM/EC ARE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS PATTERN AS THE GFS SCOURS OUT
MORE OF THE MOISTURE POST FRONTAL. CURRENTLY WE PREFER MORE THE
EC/NAM LOOK TO THE PATTERN AND WILL CONT WITH SOME POPS AFTER 09Z
FRI NIGHT. SOME CONVECTION MAY TRY AND LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SAT
OR REGENERATE GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGH
SLIDING SEWD THROUGH THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES FAVOR SOME CONVECTION ON
SAT...EITHER A CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE AFTN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT AN ISO SVR THREAT IF THIS
PATTERN ENDS UP DEVELOPING. ONCE THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA ON SAT EVENING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO END
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL APPEARS QUIET WITH SEASONABLY
COOL AIR IN PLACE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY FOR MON/TUE BEFORE TEMPERATURES
START TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY
MID WEEK WE WILL CONT TO MENTION THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUES. WINDS INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 170-150 DEGREES AT
14-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. GUSTS DROP OFF
BY 02Z...BUT WINDS REMAIN AROUND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
SLOWLY VEER TO WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 210 DEGREES BY 13-15Z...AND
THEN 240-270 DEGREES BY 17-19Z...AND THEN 300-330 DEGREES BY
20-24Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CHERMOK
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 250155
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
855 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ALTHOUGH 00Z OMAHA SOUNDING AND SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATED A
FORMIDABLE CAP/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FA...ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DEVELOP TOWARD NWRN ZONES
SHORTLY BEFORE 02Z. RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY
TOWARD ALBION BY 03-04Z. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO INCLUDE POPS AS
FAR EAST AS LINCOLN TO NEAR FREMONT THROUGH 07Z BEFORE PRECIP
POSSIBLY SHUTS OFF DUE TO ITS FARTHER EAST REMOVAL OF ITS ELEVATED
ROOTS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND SOME SHORT RANGE
MODELS BROUGHT AN MCS ACROSS LINCOLN/OMAHA TONIGHT. SECOND AREA
WHERE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER WOULD NEAR EDGE OF WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT/CAP...ACROSS FAR ERN ZONES. NO MENTION WAS MADE THERE
JUST YET. NEEDLESS TO SAY...RADAR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS FORECAST IS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
EDGE OF THE INCREASING CAP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CONT TO AFFECT
A SMALL PORTION OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES TO STRONG FOR OUR CWA.
OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GET GOING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOWER 100S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR CI. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WANT TO TRY AND MAKE IT INTO NE NEB
LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE FEEL THIS APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN
THE INCREASE CAP AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF DEEP MIXING. THUS IT SHOULD
BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT WARM NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE CDFNT TIMING FOR
FRI AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE EC/GEM OF YESTERDAY. THUS HIGHS IN THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN CAPPED OVER THE FA GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING MOISTURE LOCKED INTO THE FA.
TSRA MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRI AFTN AND ATTEMPT TO ROLL ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL
CAP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER NRN NEB/SRN SD FRI NIGHT. THE
NAM/EC ARE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS PATTERN AS THE GFS SCOURS OUT
MORE OF THE MOISTURE POST FRONTAL. CURRENTLY WE PREFER MORE THE
EC/NAM LOOK TO THE PATTERN AND WILL CONT WITH SOME POPS AFTER 09Z
FRI NIGHT. SOME CONVECTION MAY TRY AND LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SAT
OR REGENERATE GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGH
SLIDING SEWD THROUGH THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES FAVOR SOME CONVECTION ON
SAT...EITHER A CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE AFTN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT AN ISO SVR THREAT IF THIS
PATTERN ENDS UP DEVELOPING. ONCE THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA ON SAT EVENING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO END
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL APPEARS QUIET WITH SEASONABLY
COOL AIR IN PLACE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY FOR MON/TUE BEFORE TEMPERATURES
START TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY
MID WEEK WE WILL CONT TO MENTION THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUES. WINDS INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 170-150 DEGREES AT
14-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. GUSTS DROP OFF
BY 02Z...BUT WINDS REMAIN AROUND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
SLOWLY VEER TO WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 210 DEGREES BY 13-15Z...AND
THEN 240-270 DEGREES BY 17-19Z...AND THEN 300-330 DEGREES BY
20-24Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CHERMOK
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KLBF 242337
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL MAINTAIN 65
TO 70F DEW POINTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SUTHERLAND TO CURTIS
LINE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED OVER 100F WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE CAPPING INVERSION. IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES NEARING 3500 J/KG AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR
NEAR 35 KTS. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR
EVEN SEVERE. AGAIN THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL AS A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION MUST BE OVERCOME FIRST.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN AN ISOLATED FASHION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING. THESE STORMS ARE HIGH
BASED IN A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT TO THE WEST OF THE DRY
LINE. AIDED BY THE WEAK SHORTWAVE...THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK EAST
INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND UNORGANIZED AS THE AREA
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A BIT OF COOLING TO THE AREA FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THE DRY LINE CROSSES THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND COULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS IT COMES
ACROSS THOUGH COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED.

THE DRY LINE PRESSES THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...THE
MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO
MORE THAN 1.25 INCHES...SO MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EAST OF VALENTINE-NORTH PLATTE. SINCE THE DRY LINE BULGE IS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY IS NOT
STRONG AND SEVERE WEATHER WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED.

AFTER THE DRY LINE STALLS ON ABOUT A VALENTINE-NORTH PLATTE LINE...
THE INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR...AT 40-50KT IS FAVORABLE AND SURFACE-BASED
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENERGY EXCEEDS 5000J/KG. THE WINDOW FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NARROW...LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
THE FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH.

AFTER THE FRONT...COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND RETURN FLOW BRINGS
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE
WOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT NO
MENTION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RULE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KGID 242321
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD. 12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
IN ADDITION TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A STOUT MID LEVEL WARM POCKET OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD WHICH WOULD
TYPICALLY CAP OFF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS BEING
SAID...AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF
A WEAK VORT MAX. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION HOLDING ON AND SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE LATER
EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAT TOMORROW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 100
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE KANSAS COUNTIES WITH UPPER 90S SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...WE
SHOULD APPROACH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105+ RANGE. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND ALL THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE FOR
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 60S FOR LOWS.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS PUT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS PCPN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...WILL LEAVE THESE CHANCES IN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE A FEW TSTMS IN
WESTERN NEB BUT CHANCE OF THEM MAKING IT INTO THE TERMINAL AREA
ARE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS A WIND SHIFT WHICH
SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 14-15Z IN THE EAR AND GRI AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ063-064-
     074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...EWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 242321
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD. 12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
IN ADDITION TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A STOUT MID LEVEL WARM POCKET OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD WHICH WOULD
TYPICALLY CAP OFF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS BEING
SAID...AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF
A WEAK VORT MAX. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION HOLDING ON AND SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE LATER
EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAT TOMORROW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 100
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE KANSAS COUNTIES WITH UPPER 90S SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...WE
SHOULD APPROACH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105+ RANGE. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND ALL THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE FOR
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 60S FOR LOWS.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS PUT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS PCPN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...WILL LEAVE THESE CHANCES IN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE A FEW TSTMS IN
WESTERN NEB BUT CHANCE OF THEM MAKING IT INTO THE TERMINAL AREA
ARE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS A WIND SHIFT WHICH
SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 14-15Z IN THE EAR AND GRI AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ063-064-
     074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...EWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 242316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS FORECAST IS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
EDGE OF THE INCREASING CAP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CONT TO AFFECT
A SMALL PORTION OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES TO STRONG FOR OUR CWA.
OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GET GOING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOWER 100S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR CI. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WANT TO TRY AND MAKE IT INTO NE NEB
LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE FEEL THIS APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN
THE INCREASE CAP AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF DEEP MIXING. THUS IT SHOULD
BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT WARM NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE CDFNT TIMING FOR
FRI AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE EC/GEM OF YESTERDAY. THUS HIGHS IN THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN CAPPED OVER THE FA GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING MOISTURE LOCKED INTO THE FA.
TSRA MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRI AFTN AND ATTEMPT TO ROLL ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL
CAP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER NRN NEB/SRN SD FRI NIGHT. THE
NAM/EC ARE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS PATTERN AS THE GFS SCOURS OUT
MORE OF THE MOISTURE POST FRONTAL. CURRENTLY WE PREFER MORE THE
EC/NAM LOOK TO THE PATTERN AND WILL CONT WITH SOME POPS AFTER 09Z
FRI NIGHT. SOME CONVECTION MAY TRY AND LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SAT
OR REGENERATE GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGH
SLIDING SEWD THROUGH THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES FAVOR SOME CONVECTION ON
SAT...EITHER A CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE AFTN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT AN ISO SVR THREAT IF THIS
PATTERN ENDS UP DEVELOPING. ONCE THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA ON SAT EVENING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO END
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL APPEARS QUIET WITH SEASONABLY
COOL AIR IN PLACE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY FOR MON/TUE BEFORE TEMPERATURES
START TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY
MID WEEK WE WILL CONT TO MENTION THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUES. WINDS INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 170-150 DEGREES AT
14-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. GUSTS DROP OFF
BY 02Z...BUT WINDS REMAIN AROUND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
SLOWLY VEER TO WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 210 DEGREES BY 13-15Z...AND
THEN 240-270 DEGREES BY 17-19Z...AND THEN 300-330 DEGREES BY
20-24Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 242316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS FORECAST IS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
EDGE OF THE INCREASING CAP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CONT TO AFFECT
A SMALL PORTION OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES TO STRONG FOR OUR CWA.
OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GET GOING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOWER 100S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR CI. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WANT TO TRY AND MAKE IT INTO NE NEB
LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE FEEL THIS APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN
THE INCREASE CAP AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF DEEP MIXING. THUS IT SHOULD
BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT WARM NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE CDFNT TIMING FOR
FRI AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE EC/GEM OF YESTERDAY. THUS HIGHS IN THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN CAPPED OVER THE FA GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING MOISTURE LOCKED INTO THE FA.
TSRA MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRI AFTN AND ATTEMPT TO ROLL ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL
CAP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER NRN NEB/SRN SD FRI NIGHT. THE
NAM/EC ARE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS PATTERN AS THE GFS SCOURS OUT
MORE OF THE MOISTURE POST FRONTAL. CURRENTLY WE PREFER MORE THE
EC/NAM LOOK TO THE PATTERN AND WILL CONT WITH SOME POPS AFTER 09Z
FRI NIGHT. SOME CONVECTION MAY TRY AND LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SAT
OR REGENERATE GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGH
SLIDING SEWD THROUGH THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES FAVOR SOME CONVECTION ON
SAT...EITHER A CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE AFTN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT AN ISO SVR THREAT IF THIS
PATTERN ENDS UP DEVELOPING. ONCE THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA ON SAT EVENING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO END
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL APPEARS QUIET WITH SEASONABLY
COOL AIR IN PLACE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY FOR MON/TUE BEFORE TEMPERATURES
START TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY
MID WEEK WE WILL CONT TO MENTION THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUES. WINDS INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 170-150 DEGREES AT
14-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. GUSTS DROP OFF
BY 02Z...BUT WINDS REMAIN AROUND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
SLOWLY VEER TO WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 210 DEGREES BY 13-15Z...AND
THEN 240-270 DEGREES BY 17-19Z...AND THEN 300-330 DEGREES BY
20-24Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 242316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS FORECAST IS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
EDGE OF THE INCREASING CAP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CONT TO AFFECT
A SMALL PORTION OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES TO STRONG FOR OUR CWA.
OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GET GOING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOWER 100S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR CI. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WANT TO TRY AND MAKE IT INTO NE NEB
LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE FEEL THIS APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN
THE INCREASE CAP AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF DEEP MIXING. THUS IT SHOULD
BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT WARM NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE CDFNT TIMING FOR
FRI AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE EC/GEM OF YESTERDAY. THUS HIGHS IN THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN CAPPED OVER THE FA GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING MOISTURE LOCKED INTO THE FA.
TSRA MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRI AFTN AND ATTEMPT TO ROLL ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL
CAP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER NRN NEB/SRN SD FRI NIGHT. THE
NAM/EC ARE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS PATTERN AS THE GFS SCOURS OUT
MORE OF THE MOISTURE POST FRONTAL. CURRENTLY WE PREFER MORE THE
EC/NAM LOOK TO THE PATTERN AND WILL CONT WITH SOME POPS AFTER 09Z
FRI NIGHT. SOME CONVECTION MAY TRY AND LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SAT
OR REGENERATE GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGH
SLIDING SEWD THROUGH THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES FAVOR SOME CONVECTION ON
SAT...EITHER A CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE AFTN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT AN ISO SVR THREAT IF THIS
PATTERN ENDS UP DEVELOPING. ONCE THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA ON SAT EVENING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO END
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL APPEARS QUIET WITH SEASONABLY
COOL AIR IN PLACE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY FOR MON/TUE BEFORE TEMPERATURES
START TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY
MID WEEK WE WILL CONT TO MENTION THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUES. WINDS INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 170-150 DEGREES AT
14-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. GUSTS DROP OFF
BY 02Z...BUT WINDS REMAIN AROUND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
SLOWLY VEER TO WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 210 DEGREES BY 13-15Z...AND
THEN 240-270 DEGREES BY 17-19Z...AND THEN 300-330 DEGREES BY
20-24Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 242316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS FORECAST IS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
EDGE OF THE INCREASING CAP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CONT TO AFFECT
A SMALL PORTION OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES TO STRONG FOR OUR CWA.
OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GET GOING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOWER 100S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR CI. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WANT TO TRY AND MAKE IT INTO NE NEB
LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE FEEL THIS APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN
THE INCREASE CAP AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF DEEP MIXING. THUS IT SHOULD
BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT WARM NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE CDFNT TIMING FOR
FRI AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE EC/GEM OF YESTERDAY. THUS HIGHS IN THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN CAPPED OVER THE FA GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING MOISTURE LOCKED INTO THE FA.
TSRA MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRI AFTN AND ATTEMPT TO ROLL ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL
CAP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER NRN NEB/SRN SD FRI NIGHT. THE
NAM/EC ARE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS PATTERN AS THE GFS SCOURS OUT
MORE OF THE MOISTURE POST FRONTAL. CURRENTLY WE PREFER MORE THE
EC/NAM LOOK TO THE PATTERN AND WILL CONT WITH SOME POPS AFTER 09Z
FRI NIGHT. SOME CONVECTION MAY TRY AND LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SAT
OR REGENERATE GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGH
SLIDING SEWD THROUGH THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES FAVOR SOME CONVECTION ON
SAT...EITHER A CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE AFTN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT AN ISO SVR THREAT IF THIS
PATTERN ENDS UP DEVELOPING. ONCE THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA ON SAT EVENING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO END
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL APPEARS QUIET WITH SEASONABLY
COOL AIR IN PLACE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY FOR MON/TUE BEFORE TEMPERATURES
START TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY
MID WEEK WE WILL CONT TO MENTION THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUES. WINDS INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 170-150 DEGREES AT
14-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. GUSTS DROP OFF
BY 02Z...BUT WINDS REMAIN AROUND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
SLOWLY VEER TO WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 210 DEGREES BY 13-15Z...AND
THEN 240-270 DEGREES BY 17-19Z...AND THEN 300-330 DEGREES BY
20-24Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 242038
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
338 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS FORECAST IS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
EDGE OF THE INCREASING CAP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CONT TO AFFECT
A SMALL PORTION OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES TO STRONG FOR OUR CWA.
OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GET GOING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOWER 100S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR CI. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WANT TO TRY AND MAKE IT INTO NE NEB
LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE FEEL THIS APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN
THE INCREASE CAP AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF DEEP MIXING. THUS IT SHOULD
BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT WARM NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE CDFNT TIMING FOR
FRI AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE EC/GEM OF YESTERDAY. THUS HIGHS IN THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN CAPPED OVER THE FA GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING MOISTURE LOCKED INTO THE FA.
TSRA MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRI AFTN AND ATTEMPT TO ROLL ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL
CAP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER NRN NEB/SRN SD FRI NIGHT. THE
NAM/EC ARE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS PATTERN AS THE GFS SCOURS OUT
MORE OF THE MOISTURE POST FRONTAL. CURRENTLY WE PREFER MORE THE
EC/NAM LOOK TO THE PATTERN AND WILL CONT WITH SOME POPS AFTER 09Z
FRI NIGHT. SOME CONVECTION MAY TRY AND LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SAT
OR REGENERATE GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGH
SLIDING SEWD THROUGH THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES FAVOR SOME CONVECTION ON
SAT...EITHER A CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE AFTN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT AN ISO SVR THREAT IF THIS
PATTERN ENDS UP DEVELOPING. ONCE THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA ON SAT EVENING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO END
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL APPEARS QUIET WITH SEASONABLY
COOL AIR IN PLACE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY FOR MON/TUE BEFORE TEMPERATURES
START TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY
MID WEEK WE WILL CONT TO MENTION THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KOFK AND KLNK THRU THE FCST PD.

AT KOMA THOUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PUSHING EWD OVER ERN NEB
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOMETIME TWD 06Z
TONIGHT. WITH STORM INITIATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF
BOTH KOFK/KLNK...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPO OR PROB30
GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

FOR KOMA...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT MAINLY BTWN 06Z-12Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 242038
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
338 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS FORECAST IS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
EDGE OF THE INCREASING CAP THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CONT TO AFFECT
A SMALL PORTION OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES TO STRONG FOR OUR CWA.
OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GET GOING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE LOWER 100S...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR CI. SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY WANT TO TRY AND MAKE IT INTO NE NEB
LATE THIS EVENING BUT WE FEEL THIS APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN
THE INCREASE CAP AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF DEEP MIXING. THUS IT SHOULD
BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT WARM NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE CDFNT TIMING FOR
FRI AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE EC/GEM OF YESTERDAY. THUS HIGHS IN THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN CAPPED OVER THE FA GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TURNING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING MOISTURE LOCKED INTO THE FA.
TSRA MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRI AFTN AND ATTEMPT TO ROLL ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL
CAP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER NRN NEB/SRN SD FRI NIGHT. THE
NAM/EC ARE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS PATTERN AS THE GFS SCOURS OUT
MORE OF THE MOISTURE POST FRONTAL. CURRENTLY WE PREFER MORE THE
EC/NAM LOOK TO THE PATTERN AND WILL CONT WITH SOME POPS AFTER 09Z
FRI NIGHT. SOME CONVECTION MAY TRY AND LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SAT
OR REGENERATE GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGH
SLIDING SEWD THROUGH THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES FAVOR SOME CONVECTION ON
SAT...EITHER A CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE AFTN. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT AN ISO SVR THREAT IF THIS
PATTERN ENDS UP DEVELOPING. ONCE THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA ON SAT EVENING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO END
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVS INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL APPEARS QUIET WITH SEASONABLY
COOL AIR IN PLACE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY FOR MON/TUE BEFORE TEMPERATURES
START TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY
MID WEEK WE WILL CONT TO MENTION THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KOFK AND KLNK THRU THE FCST PD.

AT KOMA THOUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PUSHING EWD OVER ERN NEB
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOMETIME TWD 06Z
TONIGHT. WITH STORM INITIATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF
BOTH KOFK/KLNK...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPO OR PROB30
GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

FOR KOMA...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT MAINLY BTWN 06Z-12Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ079-080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KGID 242038
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
338 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD. 12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
IN ADDITION TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A STOUT MID LEVEL WARM POCKET OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD WHICH WOULD
TYPICALLY CAP OFF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS BEING
SAID...AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF
A WEAK VORT MAX. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION HOLDING ON AND SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE LATER
EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAT TOMORROW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 100
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE KANSAS COUNTIES WITH UPPER 90S SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...WE
SHOULD APPROACH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105+ RANGE. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND ALL THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE FOR
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 60S FOR LOWS.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS PUT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS PCPN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...WILL LEAVE THESE CHANCES IN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ063-064-
     074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KGID 242038
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
338 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD. 12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
IN ADDITION TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A STOUT MID LEVEL WARM POCKET OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD WHICH WOULD
TYPICALLY CAP OFF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS BEING
SAID...AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF
A WEAK VORT MAX. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION HOLDING ON AND SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE LATER
EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAT TOMORROW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 100
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE KANSAS COUNTIES WITH UPPER 90S SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...WE
SHOULD APPROACH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105+ RANGE. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND ALL THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE FOR
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 60S FOR LOWS.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS PUT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS PCPN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...WILL LEAVE THESE CHANCES IN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ063-064-
     074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KGID 242038
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
338 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD. 12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
IN ADDITION TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A STOUT MID LEVEL WARM POCKET OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD WHICH WOULD
TYPICALLY CAP OFF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS BEING
SAID...AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF
A WEAK VORT MAX. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION HOLDING ON AND SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE LATER
EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAT TOMORROW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 100
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE KANSAS COUNTIES WITH UPPER 90S SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...WE
SHOULD APPROACH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105+ RANGE. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND ALL THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE FOR
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 60S FOR LOWS.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS PUT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS PCPN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...WILL LEAVE THESE CHANCES IN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ063-064-
     074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KGID 242038
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
338 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD. 12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
IN ADDITION TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A STOUT MID LEVEL WARM POCKET OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD WHICH WOULD
TYPICALLY CAP OFF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS BEING
SAID...AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF
A WEAK VORT MAX. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION HOLDING ON AND SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE LATER
EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAT TOMORROW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 100
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE KANSAS COUNTIES WITH UPPER 90S SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...WE
SHOULD APPROACH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105+ RANGE. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND ALL THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE FOR
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 60S FOR LOWS.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS PUT AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS PCPN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...WILL LEAVE THESE CHANCES IN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ063-064-
     074>077-083>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KLBF 242006
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
306 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL MAINTAIN 65
TO 70F DEW POINTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SUTHERLAND TO CURTIS
LINE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED OVER 100F WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE CAPPING INVERSION. IT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES NEARING 3500 J/KG AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR
NEAR 35 KTS. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR
EVEN SEVERE. AGAIN THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL AS A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION MUST BE OVERCOME FIRST.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING IN AN ISOLATED FASHION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING. THESE STORMS ARE HIGH
BASED IN A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT TO THE WEST OF THE DRY
LINE. AIDED BY THE WEAK SHORTWAVE...THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK EAST
INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND UNORGANIZED AS THE AREA
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A BIT OF COOLING TO THE AREA FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THE DRY LINE CROSSES THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND COULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS IT COMES
ACROSS THOUGH COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED.

THE DRY LINE PRESSES THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...THE
MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO
MORE THAN 1.25 INCHES...SO MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EAST OF VALENTINE-NORTH PLATTE. SINCE THE DRY LINE BULGE IS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY IS NOT
STRONG AND SEVERE WEATHER WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED.

AFTER THE DRY LINE STALLS ON ABOUT A VALENTINE-NORTH PLATTE LINE...
THE INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR...AT 40-50KT IS FAVORABLE AND SURFACE-BASED
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENERGY EXCEEDS 5000J/KG. THE WINDOW FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NARROW...LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
THE FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH.

AFTER THE FRONT...COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MONDAY
EVENING AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND RETURN FLOW BRINGS
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE
WOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT NO MENTION
WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO RULE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND LOCALLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTH.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TAYLOR







000
FXUS63 KLBF 241811
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
111 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE DRY LINE BULGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE
DRY LINE WILL MAINTAIN 65 TO 70F DEW POINTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SUTHERLAND TO CURTIS LINE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST
OF THIS LINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OVER 100F WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY
LINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION. IT WILL BE
VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES
NEARING 3500 J/KG...AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS. IF A STORM
CAN DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. AGAIN
THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL AS A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION MUST BE
OVERCOME FIRST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AT 07Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHICH EXTENDED
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORIES IN CANADA. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE...TROUGHING WAS IN PLACE OVER BOTH
COASTS...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WERE PROGRESSING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH HAS SPARKED
CONVECTION FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. IS HARD TO PICK OUT...BUT IS SUGGESTION OF A
SUBTLE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WITH
SATELLITE SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AT THE CURRENT TIME. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /15-19C ACCORDING TO 24.00Z RAOBS/ WERE SEEN
UNDER THE RIDGE. UNDER THE NORTHWEST UPPER LOW...THIS CHANGES
DRAMATICALLY WITH 700MB READINGS BELOW 0C. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE SEEN ACROSS NEBRASKA AS HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA
THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

WILL BE WATCHING NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED INTO THE DAKOTAS IS FORECAST TO
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT A HIGHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN LOCATIONS EAST OF
A LINE FROM SPRINGVIEW TO BURWELL...WHICH IS WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO END BY 18Z. STORMS WILL BE
ELEVATED...AND CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS 30 TO 40KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SO CAN/T RULE OUT A PULSEY STRONG STORM...BUT
DON/T ANTICIPATE SEVERE ACTIVITY AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THE 24.00Z SOUNDING FROM KLBF HAD A 700MB TEMPERATURE OF
13C...WITH THE MODELS INCREASING THAT TO 17C BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHS RISING ABOVE 100F FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM IS SIMILAR WHILE THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WON/T GO THAT WARM WITH
HIGHS TODAY. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY GET
TO 100-102 BUT THE MODEL OUTPUTS OF 105-107 DEGREE READINGS DON/T
LOOK LIKELY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUSH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR STORMS. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...EVEN WITH THE
INCREASED LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH DEVELOPING
CONVECTION DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT SO DON/T ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF STORMS BEGINNING IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND PEAK
HEATING...WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORMS SHOULD BE DONE AFTER 06Z AS THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE DOWN CLOSER TO 90 ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB...WITH UNCERTAIN FOR SW NEB. WITH THE FRONT LIKELY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...A BRIEF SPIKE
IN TEMPS IS POSSIBLE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST IS
CONSERVATIVE IN THE MID 90S...WHICH IS BELOW THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO WARM.

FRIDAY NIGHT A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD AID
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD PUSH THE ACTIVITY ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. MODELS FAVOR NORTH CENTRAL...AND WILL RETAIN HIGHER POPS
THERE. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS MILD...IN
THE MID 60S FOR MOST.

SATURDAY SOME LINGER SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL IN THE
MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO REBUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS A LITTLE
COOLER...IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST. A CANADIAN
SFC HIGH WILL DIP ACROSS THE PLAINS CREATING COOL TEMPS OVERHEAD
AND TO THE EAST...WITH WARM TEMPS TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD BRING A FEW DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
MOISTURE MARGINAL INITIALLY. WILL GO DRY UNTIL HIGH SLIDES TO THE
SE AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
WEST...SPREADING NE FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL INFLUENCED BY THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT NO MENTION
WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO RULE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND LOCALLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR






000
FXUS63 KOAX 241751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD.

PATTERN AT 500 MB AT 00Z FEATURED A CLOSED LOW JUST OF THE COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN ANTICYCLONE WITH A CENTER AROUND 599
DM OVER COLORADO AND A TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL. THE HIGH OVER COLORADO WILL PUSH DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z SUNDAY.

WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MODERATE ELEVATED MOISTURE JUST TO OUR WEST
(6 DEGREE 700 MB DEWPOINTS NOTED AT BOTH KLBF AND KABR) ALONG WITH
SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. RECENT HOURLY SHORT RANGE MODELS...
HRRR AND RAP13...DEVELOP CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND 12Z OR SO. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN
BUT WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THERE WERE NOT ANY RADAR ECHOES IN
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 330 AM...BUT THERE WERE SOME CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 9500 FEET. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AMEND GRIDS/FORECAST PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

EXPECT MOST HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY...WARMEST WEST AND COOLEST
EAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A COMBINED RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

DRIER MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT IN
OUR AREA. 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 14-16 DEGREE C
RANGE SO CHANCES SEEM LOW. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...IN CASE ANY STORMS THAT FORM
TO THE WEST DRIFT EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

DECIDED TO KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVEN THOUGH A FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM...SO EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO
STAY CAPPED. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S NORTH
AND 95 TO 100 SOUTH. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 100 TO 105 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
FOR THAT AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN TRY TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 81 AND KEPT THAT THINKING. 00Z NAM MODEL MAY HAVE
BEEN A BIT OVERDONE WITH PCPN SATURDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE SOME 20
TO 30 PERCENT POPS MOST AREAS. SOME LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE
PRESENT BASED ON RECENT NAM AND GFS RUNS. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
SHIFT SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY SHOULD VARY FROM MID 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

OUR AREA WILL GENERALLY BE IN MODEST NORTHWEST MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
FOR DAYS 3 TO 7. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK MINIMAL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN...SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR
NOW. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...PCPN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE. HAVE ADDED SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KOFK AND KLNK THRU THE FCST PD.

AT KOMA THOUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PUSHING EWD OVER ERN NEB
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOMETIME TWD 06Z
TONIGHT. WITH STORM INITIATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF
BOTH KOFK/KLNK...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPO OR PROB30
GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

FOR KOMA...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT MAINLY BTWN 06Z-12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KOAX 241751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD.

PATTERN AT 500 MB AT 00Z FEATURED A CLOSED LOW JUST OF THE COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN ANTICYCLONE WITH A CENTER AROUND 599
DM OVER COLORADO AND A TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL. THE HIGH OVER COLORADO WILL PUSH DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z SUNDAY.

WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MODERATE ELEVATED MOISTURE JUST TO OUR WEST
(6 DEGREE 700 MB DEWPOINTS NOTED AT BOTH KLBF AND KABR) ALONG WITH
SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. RECENT HOURLY SHORT RANGE MODELS...
HRRR AND RAP13...DEVELOP CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND 12Z OR SO. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN
BUT WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THERE WERE NOT ANY RADAR ECHOES IN
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 330 AM...BUT THERE WERE SOME CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 9500 FEET. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AMEND GRIDS/FORECAST PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

EXPECT MOST HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY...WARMEST WEST AND COOLEST
EAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A COMBINED RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

DRIER MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT IN
OUR AREA. 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 14-16 DEGREE C
RANGE SO CHANCES SEEM LOW. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...IN CASE ANY STORMS THAT FORM
TO THE WEST DRIFT EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

DECIDED TO KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVEN THOUGH A FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM...SO EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO
STAY CAPPED. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S NORTH
AND 95 TO 100 SOUTH. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 100 TO 105 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
FOR THAT AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN TRY TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 81 AND KEPT THAT THINKING. 00Z NAM MODEL MAY HAVE
BEEN A BIT OVERDONE WITH PCPN SATURDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE SOME 20
TO 30 PERCENT POPS MOST AREAS. SOME LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE
PRESENT BASED ON RECENT NAM AND GFS RUNS. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
SHIFT SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY SHOULD VARY FROM MID 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

OUR AREA WILL GENERALLY BE IN MODEST NORTHWEST MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
FOR DAYS 3 TO 7. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK MINIMAL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN...SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR
NOW. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...PCPN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE. HAVE ADDED SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KOFK AND KLNK THRU THE FCST PD.

AT KOMA THOUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PUSHING EWD OVER ERN NEB
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOMETIME TWD 06Z
TONIGHT. WITH STORM INITIATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF
BOTH KOFK/KLNK...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPO OR PROB30
GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

FOR KOMA...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT MAINLY BTWN 06Z-12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KOAX 241751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD.

PATTERN AT 500 MB AT 00Z FEATURED A CLOSED LOW JUST OF THE COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN ANTICYCLONE WITH A CENTER AROUND 599
DM OVER COLORADO AND A TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL. THE HIGH OVER COLORADO WILL PUSH DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z SUNDAY.

WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MODERATE ELEVATED MOISTURE JUST TO OUR WEST
(6 DEGREE 700 MB DEWPOINTS NOTED AT BOTH KLBF AND KABR) ALONG WITH
SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. RECENT HOURLY SHORT RANGE MODELS...
HRRR AND RAP13...DEVELOP CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND 12Z OR SO. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN
BUT WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THERE WERE NOT ANY RADAR ECHOES IN
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 330 AM...BUT THERE WERE SOME CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 9500 FEET. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AMEND GRIDS/FORECAST PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

EXPECT MOST HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY...WARMEST WEST AND COOLEST
EAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A COMBINED RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

DRIER MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT IN
OUR AREA. 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 14-16 DEGREE C
RANGE SO CHANCES SEEM LOW. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...IN CASE ANY STORMS THAT FORM
TO THE WEST DRIFT EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

DECIDED TO KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVEN THOUGH A FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM...SO EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO
STAY CAPPED. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S NORTH
AND 95 TO 100 SOUTH. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 100 TO 105 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
FOR THAT AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN TRY TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 81 AND KEPT THAT THINKING. 00Z NAM MODEL MAY HAVE
BEEN A BIT OVERDONE WITH PCPN SATURDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE SOME 20
TO 30 PERCENT POPS MOST AREAS. SOME LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE
PRESENT BASED ON RECENT NAM AND GFS RUNS. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
SHIFT SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY SHOULD VARY FROM MID 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

OUR AREA WILL GENERALLY BE IN MODEST NORTHWEST MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
FOR DAYS 3 TO 7. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK MINIMAL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN...SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR
NOW. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...PCPN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE. HAVE ADDED SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KOFK AND KLNK THRU THE FCST PD.

AT KOMA THOUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PUSHING EWD OVER ERN NEB
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOMETIME TWD 06Z
TONIGHT. WITH STORM INITIATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF
BOTH KOFK/KLNK...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPO OR PROB30
GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

FOR KOMA...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT MAINLY BTWN 06Z-12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KOAX 241751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1251 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD.

PATTERN AT 500 MB AT 00Z FEATURED A CLOSED LOW JUST OF THE COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN ANTICYCLONE WITH A CENTER AROUND 599
DM OVER COLORADO AND A TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL. THE HIGH OVER COLORADO WILL PUSH DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z SUNDAY.

WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MODERATE ELEVATED MOISTURE JUST TO OUR WEST
(6 DEGREE 700 MB DEWPOINTS NOTED AT BOTH KLBF AND KABR) ALONG WITH
SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. RECENT HOURLY SHORT RANGE MODELS...
HRRR AND RAP13...DEVELOP CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY
AROUND 12Z OR SO. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN
BUT WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THERE WERE NOT ANY RADAR ECHOES IN
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF 330 AM...BUT THERE WERE SOME CLOUDS
WITH BASES AROUND 9500 FEET. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AMEND GRIDS/FORECAST PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

EXPECT MOST HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY...WARMEST WEST AND COOLEST
EAST. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A COMBINED RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

DRIER MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT IN
OUR AREA. 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 14-16 DEGREE C
RANGE SO CHANCES SEEM LOW. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...IN CASE ANY STORMS THAT FORM
TO THE WEST DRIFT EAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

DECIDED TO KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVEN THOUGH A FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM...SO EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO
STAY CAPPED. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S NORTH
AND 95 TO 100 SOUTH. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 100 TO 105 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
FOR THAT AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN TRY TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 81 AND KEPT THAT THINKING. 00Z NAM MODEL MAY HAVE
BEEN A BIT OVERDONE WITH PCPN SATURDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE SOME 20
TO 30 PERCENT POPS MOST AREAS. SOME LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE
PRESENT BASED ON RECENT NAM AND GFS RUNS. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
SHIFT SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SATURDAY SHOULD VARY FROM MID 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

OUR AREA WILL GENERALLY BE IN MODEST NORTHWEST MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
FOR DAYS 3 TO 7. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHANCES FOR PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK MINIMAL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN...SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR
NOW. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...PCPN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE. HAVE ADDED SOME 20-30 PERCENT POPS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KOFK AND KLNK THRU THE FCST PD.

AT KOMA THOUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PUSHING EWD OVER ERN NEB
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOMETIME TWD 06Z
TONIGHT. WITH STORM INITIATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR JUST EAST OF
BOTH KOFK/KLNK...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPO OR PROB30
GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

FOR KOMA...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT MAINLY BTWN 06Z-12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KGID 241738
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW A CONTINUED AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND WRN THIRDS OF THE CONUS...WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER CO/NM...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE PAC NW WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER MN/WI. THE RESULTING WINDS ARE S/SERLY...BUT WITH A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT THE SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE.

THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS TODAY...MAIN QUESTIONS IS
WHETHER THE CWA WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. EVEN AT THIS POINT
MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES...BUT HIRES/SHORT TERM MODELS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF MAINLY THE NERN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA
BEING AFFECTED...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDES THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE AND AN INCREASED LLJ LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SWRN SD...AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE 20- 30 PERCENT RANGE...AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THERE IS ALSO THE SUGGESTION THE CWA WONT
SEE ANYTHING.

SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE CWA THIS MORNING...IT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY. LEFT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DRY...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG A SFC
BOUNDARY AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE
MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA PRIOR TO 00Z...WITH SOME QUESTION BETWEEN MODELS WITH
JUST HOW FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL GET. KEPT THE LOW CHANCE POPS
GOING ACROSS WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 00-06Z WITH
THE HOURS FOLLOWING DRY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT HIGH.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE W/NW OF THE
CWA...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. SRLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING INCREASED TEMPS ALOFT...WITH A BUMP UP IN
HIGHS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN
THE FAR EAST TO MID/UPPER 90S IN THE W/SW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY.

A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM. THERE IS SOME HIGH BASE CONVECTION THAT COULD
DEVELOP WITH A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
CWA AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST. WE SHOULD BE CAPPED AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TO DETERMINE AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH. IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE THIS COULD BE A SLEEPER FOR VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE PEAK HEATING OF THE
DAY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CAN CLEAR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE 100 WITH
THE HELP OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NOSE FOCUSED
NORTH OF THE CWA. I INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR A STRONG STORM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT FOCUSED NORTH...POSSIBLY HELPING TO SUPPORT EARLIER
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER WEST EARLIER
IN THE DAY. THIS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH A
STRONG CAP EXPECTED...THIS SHOULD DIE OUT IN THE MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE CWA BY
THEN...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL AT SOME POINT. THE STRONG CAP
WOULD DETER CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL EVENING...AND BY
THIS TIME...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP
CONVECTION FOCUSED EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEVERE...BUT AGAIN...THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
WEST/NORTHWEST TO KEEP US OUT OF THIS AREA. MOST NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE WELL CLEARED OUR CWA
BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CAPPING WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CREEP INTO THE WEST/SOUTHWESTERN CWA
BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND CREEP EAST FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.

WE WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES OUT OF CANADA. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACE
US WELL WEST OF THE MAIN THRUST OF COLDER AIR...MUCH LIKE THE LAST
TIME THIS HAPPENED EARLIER IN THE MONTH. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO
BE LOWERED A BIT AS LONG RANGE NUMERICAL MODELS TEND TO RELY MORE
ON CLIMATOLOGY IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KLBF 241634
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1134 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE DRY LINE BULGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE
DRY LINE WILL MAINTAIN 65 TO 70F DEW POINTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SUTHERLAND TO CURTIS LINE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST
OF THIS LINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OVER 100F WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY
LINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION. IT WILL BE
VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES
NEARING 3500 J/KG...AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS. IF A STORM
CAN DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. AGAIN
THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL AS A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION MUST BE
OVERCOME FIRST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AT 07Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHICH EXTENDED
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORIES IN CANADA. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE...TROUGHING WAS IN PLACE OVER BOTH
COASTS...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WERE PROGRESSING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH HAS SPARKED
CONVECTION FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. IS HARD TO PICK OUT...BUT IS SUGGESTION OF A
SUBTLE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WITH
SATELLITE SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AT THE CURRENT TIME. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /15-19C ACCORDING TO 24.00Z RAOBS/ WERE SEEN
UNDER THE RIDGE. UNDER THE NORTHWEST UPPER LOW...THIS CHANGES
DRAMATICALLY WITH 700MB READINGS BELOW 0C. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE SEEN ACROSS NEBRASKA AS HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA
THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

WILL BE WATCHING NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED INTO THE DAKOTAS IS FORECAST TO
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT A HIGHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN LOCATIONS EAST OF
A LINE FROM SPRINGVIEW TO BURWELL...WHICH IS WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO END BY 18Z. STORMS WILL BE
ELEVATED...AND CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS 30 TO 40KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SO CAN/T RULE OUT A PULSEY STRONG STORM...BUT
DON/T ANTICIPATE SEVERE ACTIVITY AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THE 24.00Z SOUNDING FROM KLBF HAD A 700MB TEMPERATURE OF
13C...WITH THE MODELS INCREASING THAT TO 17C BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHS RISING ABOVE 100F FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM IS SIMILAR WHILE THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WON/T GO THAT WARM WITH
HIGHS TODAY. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY GET
TO 100-102 BUT THE MODEL OUTPUTS OF 105-107 DEGREE READINGS DON/T
LOOK LIKELY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUSH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR STORMS. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...EVEN WITH THE
INCREASED LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH DEVELOPING
CONVECTION DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT SO DON/T ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF STORMS BEGINNING IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND PEAK
HEATING...WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORMS SHOULD BE DONE AFTER 06Z AS THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE DOWN CLOSER TO 90 ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB...WITH UNCERTAIN FOR SW NEB. WITH THE FRONT LIKELY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...A BRIEF SPIKE
IN TEMPS IS POSSIBLE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST IS
CONSERVATIVE IN THE MID 90S...WHICH IS BELOW THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO WARM.

FRIDAY NIGHT A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD AID
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD PUSH THE ACTIVITY ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. MODELS FAVOR NORTH CENTRAL...AND WILL RETAIN HIGHER POPS
THERE. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS MILD...IN
THE MID 60S FOR MOST.

SATURDAY SOME LINGER SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL IN THE
MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO REBUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS A LITTLE
COOLER...IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST. A CANADIAN
SFC HIGH WILL DIP ACROSS THE PLAINS CREATING COOL TEMPS OVERHEAD
AND TO THE EAST...WITH WARM TEMPS TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD BRING A FEW DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
MOISTURE MARGINAL INITIALLY. WILL GO DRY UNTIL HIGH SLIDES TO THE
SE AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
WEST...SPREADING NE FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL INFLUENCED BY THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AT 20
TO 25KTS AT TIMES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE SO NO MENTION HAS
BEEN ADDED TO EITHER KLBF OR KVTN TERMINAL LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY 25.12Z.
UNLESS A STORM PASSES...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 241634
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1134 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE DRY LINE BULGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE
DRY LINE WILL MAINTAIN 65 TO 70F DEW POINTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SUTHERLAND TO CURTIS LINE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST
OF THIS LINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OVER 100F WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY
LINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION. IT WILL BE
VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES
NEARING 3500 J/KG...AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS. IF A STORM
CAN DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. AGAIN
THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL AS A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION MUST BE
OVERCOME FIRST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AT 07Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHICH EXTENDED
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORIES IN CANADA. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE...TROUGHING WAS IN PLACE OVER BOTH
COASTS...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WERE PROGRESSING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH HAS SPARKED
CONVECTION FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. IS HARD TO PICK OUT...BUT IS SUGGESTION OF A
SUBTLE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WITH
SATELLITE SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AT THE CURRENT TIME. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /15-19C ACCORDING TO 24.00Z RAOBS/ WERE SEEN
UNDER THE RIDGE. UNDER THE NORTHWEST UPPER LOW...THIS CHANGES
DRAMATICALLY WITH 700MB READINGS BELOW 0C. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE SEEN ACROSS NEBRASKA AS HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA
THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

WILL BE WATCHING NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED INTO THE DAKOTAS IS FORECAST TO
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT A HIGHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN LOCATIONS EAST OF
A LINE FROM SPRINGVIEW TO BURWELL...WHICH IS WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO END BY 18Z. STORMS WILL BE
ELEVATED...AND CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS 30 TO 40KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SO CAN/T RULE OUT A PULSEY STRONG STORM...BUT
DON/T ANTICIPATE SEVERE ACTIVITY AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THE 24.00Z SOUNDING FROM KLBF HAD A 700MB TEMPERATURE OF
13C...WITH THE MODELS INCREASING THAT TO 17C BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHS RISING ABOVE 100F FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM IS SIMILAR WHILE THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WON/T GO THAT WARM WITH
HIGHS TODAY. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY GET
TO 100-102 BUT THE MODEL OUTPUTS OF 105-107 DEGREE READINGS DON/T
LOOK LIKELY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUSH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR STORMS. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...EVEN WITH THE
INCREASED LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH DEVELOPING
CONVECTION DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT SO DON/T ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF STORMS BEGINNING IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND PEAK
HEATING...WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORMS SHOULD BE DONE AFTER 06Z AS THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE DOWN CLOSER TO 90 ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB...WITH UNCERTAIN FOR SW NEB. WITH THE FRONT LIKELY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...A BRIEF SPIKE
IN TEMPS IS POSSIBLE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST IS
CONSERVATIVE IN THE MID 90S...WHICH IS BELOW THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO WARM.

FRIDAY NIGHT A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD AID
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD PUSH THE ACTIVITY ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. MODELS FAVOR NORTH CENTRAL...AND WILL RETAIN HIGHER POPS
THERE. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS MILD...IN
THE MID 60S FOR MOST.

SATURDAY SOME LINGER SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL IN THE
MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO REBUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS A LITTLE
COOLER...IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST. A CANADIAN
SFC HIGH WILL DIP ACROSS THE PLAINS CREATING COOL TEMPS OVERHEAD
AND TO THE EAST...WITH WARM TEMPS TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD BRING A FEW DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
MOISTURE MARGINAL INITIALLY. WILL GO DRY UNTIL HIGH SLIDES TO THE
SE AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
WEST...SPREADING NE FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL INFLUENCED BY THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AT 20
TO 25KTS AT TIMES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE SO NO MENTION HAS
BEEN ADDED TO EITHER KLBF OR KVTN TERMINAL LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY 25.12Z.
UNLESS A STORM PASSES...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 241634
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1134 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE DRY LINE BULGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE
DRY LINE WILL MAINTAIN 65 TO 70F DEW POINTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SUTHERLAND TO CURTIS LINE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST
OF THIS LINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OVER 100F WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY
LINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION. IT WILL BE
VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES
NEARING 3500 J/KG...AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS. IF A STORM
CAN DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. AGAIN
THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL AS A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION MUST BE
OVERCOME FIRST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AT 07Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHICH EXTENDED
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORIES IN CANADA. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE...TROUGHING WAS IN PLACE OVER BOTH
COASTS...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WERE PROGRESSING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH HAS SPARKED
CONVECTION FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. IS HARD TO PICK OUT...BUT IS SUGGESTION OF A
SUBTLE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WITH
SATELLITE SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AT THE CURRENT TIME. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /15-19C ACCORDING TO 24.00Z RAOBS/ WERE SEEN
UNDER THE RIDGE. UNDER THE NORTHWEST UPPER LOW...THIS CHANGES
DRAMATICALLY WITH 700MB READINGS BELOW 0C. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE SEEN ACROSS NEBRASKA AS HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA
THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

WILL BE WATCHING NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED INTO THE DAKOTAS IS FORECAST TO
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT A HIGHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN LOCATIONS EAST OF
A LINE FROM SPRINGVIEW TO BURWELL...WHICH IS WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO END BY 18Z. STORMS WILL BE
ELEVATED...AND CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS 30 TO 40KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SO CAN/T RULE OUT A PULSEY STRONG STORM...BUT
DON/T ANTICIPATE SEVERE ACTIVITY AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THE 24.00Z SOUNDING FROM KLBF HAD A 700MB TEMPERATURE OF
13C...WITH THE MODELS INCREASING THAT TO 17C BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHS RISING ABOVE 100F FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM IS SIMILAR WHILE THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WON/T GO THAT WARM WITH
HIGHS TODAY. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY GET
TO 100-102 BUT THE MODEL OUTPUTS OF 105-107 DEGREE READINGS DON/T
LOOK LIKELY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUSH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR STORMS. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...EVEN WITH THE
INCREASED LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH DEVELOPING
CONVECTION DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT SO DON/T ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF STORMS BEGINNING IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND PEAK
HEATING...WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORMS SHOULD BE DONE AFTER 06Z AS THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE DOWN CLOSER TO 90 ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB...WITH UNCERTAIN FOR SW NEB. WITH THE FRONT LIKELY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...A BRIEF SPIKE
IN TEMPS IS POSSIBLE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST IS
CONSERVATIVE IN THE MID 90S...WHICH IS BELOW THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO WARM.

FRIDAY NIGHT A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD AID
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD PUSH THE ACTIVITY ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. MODELS FAVOR NORTH CENTRAL...AND WILL RETAIN HIGHER POPS
THERE. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS MILD...IN
THE MID 60S FOR MOST.

SATURDAY SOME LINGER SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL IN THE
MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO REBUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS A LITTLE
COOLER...IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST. A CANADIAN
SFC HIGH WILL DIP ACROSS THE PLAINS CREATING COOL TEMPS OVERHEAD
AND TO THE EAST...WITH WARM TEMPS TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD BRING A FEW DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
MOISTURE MARGINAL INITIALLY. WILL GO DRY UNTIL HIGH SLIDES TO THE
SE AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
WEST...SPREADING NE FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL INFLUENCED BY THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AT 20
TO 25KTS AT TIMES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE SO NO MENTION HAS
BEEN ADDED TO EITHER KLBF OR KVTN TERMINAL LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY 25.12Z.
UNLESS A STORM PASSES...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 241634
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1134 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE DRY LINE BULGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE
DRY LINE WILL MAINTAIN 65 TO 70F DEW POINTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SUTHERLAND TO CURTIS LINE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST
OF THIS LINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH OVER 100F WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY
LINE COULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION. IT WILL BE
VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES
NEARING 3500 J/KG...AND 0 TO 6KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS. IF A STORM
CAN DEVELOP IT COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. AGAIN
THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL AS A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION MUST BE
OVERCOME FIRST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AT 07Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHICH EXTENDED
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE NORTHERN TERRITORIES IN CANADA. ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE...TROUGHING WAS IN PLACE OVER BOTH
COASTS...WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WERE PROGRESSING OVER THE RIDGE WHICH HAS SPARKED
CONVECTION FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO WYOMING AND SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. IS HARD TO PICK OUT...BUT IS SUGGESTION OF A
SUBTLE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WITH
SATELLITE SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER DOWNSTREAM INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AT THE CURRENT TIME. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /15-19C ACCORDING TO 24.00Z RAOBS/ WERE SEEN
UNDER THE RIDGE. UNDER THE NORTHWEST UPPER LOW...THIS CHANGES
DRAMATICALLY WITH 700MB READINGS BELOW 0C. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE SEEN ACROSS NEBRASKA AS HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA
THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

WILL BE WATCHING NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED INTO THE DAKOTAS IS FORECAST TO
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT A HIGHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN LOCATIONS EAST OF
A LINE FROM SPRINGVIEW TO BURWELL...WHICH IS WHERE THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO END BY 18Z. STORMS WILL BE
ELEVATED...AND CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS 30 TO 40KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SO CAN/T RULE OUT A PULSEY STRONG STORM...BUT
DON/T ANTICIPATE SEVERE ACTIVITY AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THE 24.00Z SOUNDING FROM KLBF HAD A 700MB TEMPERATURE OF
13C...WITH THE MODELS INCREASING THAT TO 17C BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHS RISING ABOVE 100F FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM IS SIMILAR WHILE THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WON/T GO THAT WARM WITH
HIGHS TODAY. THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY GET
TO 100-102 BUT THE MODEL OUTPUTS OF 105-107 DEGREE READINGS DON/T
LOOK LIKELY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUSH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR STORMS. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...EVEN WITH THE
INCREASED LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH DEVELOPING
CONVECTION DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT SO DON/T ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF STORMS BEGINNING IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND PEAK
HEATING...WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
STORMS SHOULD BE DONE AFTER 06Z AS THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE DOWN CLOSER TO 90 ACROSS NORTHERN
NEB...WITH UNCERTAIN FOR SW NEB. WITH THE FRONT LIKELY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...A BRIEF SPIKE
IN TEMPS IS POSSIBLE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST IS
CONSERVATIVE IN THE MID 90S...WHICH IS BELOW THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING TOO WARM.

FRIDAY NIGHT A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD AID
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD PUSH THE ACTIVITY ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. MODELS FAVOR NORTH CENTRAL...AND WILL RETAIN HIGHER POPS
THERE. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS MILD...IN
THE MID 60S FOR MOST.

SATURDAY SOME LINGER SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL IN THE
MORNING...WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO REBUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS A LITTLE
COOLER...IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST. A CANADIAN
SFC HIGH WILL DIP ACROSS THE PLAINS CREATING COOL TEMPS OVERHEAD
AND TO THE EAST...WITH WARM TEMPS TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD BRING A FEW DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
MOISTURE MARGINAL INITIALLY. WILL GO DRY UNTIL HIGH SLIDES TO THE
SE AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
WEST...SPREADING NE FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL INFLUENCED BY THE COOL
CANADIAN HIGH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY...WITH GUSTS AT 20
TO 25KTS AT TIMES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE SO NO MENTION HAS
BEEN ADDED TO EITHER KLBF OR KVTN TERMINAL LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY 25.12Z.
UNLESS A STORM PASSES...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS







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