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000
FXUS63 KLBF 230854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
NOTED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY
UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND
ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON ROAD CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA TO
44 AT NORTH PLATTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE FCST...TRENDED HIGHS
TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE TO FOG AND EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE
UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.

MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AREAS OF FOG WERE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND GENERALLY EAST
OF A NORTH PLATTE KLBF TO VALENTINE KVTN. HAVE INCLUDED FOG IN KLBF
TAF SITE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM KBBW TO KONL. LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DISSIPATING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038-059-071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB




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000
FXUS63 KOAX 230800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH
AND EAST AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z.

OTHERWISE...PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY AND QUITE MILD AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN BEGINS TO TURN COOLER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF MODELS. EURO AND GFS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUN FOR MON-TUE...BUT DIVERGE AGAIN AFTER
THAT WITH GFS MAINTAINING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE EURO
BECOMES ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
AS VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SLIDE EAST...AN EXPANDING AREA OF FOG WILL
SPREAD EAST AS WELL. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
LOW TO GO IN REGARDS TO CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT OUR TAF
SITES...HOWEVER LIGHT WIND AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
EVENING RAIN WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION. WILL LEAVE TO AMENDMENTS IF
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW IFR OR BECOME LIFR.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>032-042.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230640
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
140 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS AND GRIDS. DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO MID MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WRN NEBR PER EARLY AFTN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS KICKING OFF AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT 20Z...FM NEAR WAYNE TO JUST WEST THEN SW
OF COLUMBUS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COOL FRONT THAT
WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES...OR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH...E THROUGH
THE FA TONIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. PER
HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/HRRR CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE SPREAD FROM W
TO EAST THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING WITH SOME TRAILING
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR FRONT KEEPING POPS
IN FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES.
WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP AND ASSOCD CLOUDS MOVING INTO OR EVEN EAST
OF FAR SERN ZONES BY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND AREAS OF SUCH WERE MAINTAINED.

THE REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY. A TRAILING WAVE ON THURSDAY
COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND WITH WEAK WINDS...MIXING
COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD EITHER BE EARLY
...LINGERING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SE...OR ARRIVING LATER IN
THE AFTN WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. ALSO AIRMASS SEEMS WARM ENOUGH THAT
HIGHS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S SHOULD AT LEAST BE OBSERVED PER NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO NEAR 900 MB AT KOMA.

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH BULK OF SUCH WOULD APPEAR TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA WHICH COULD LIMIT
MAX TEMPS IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FRIDAY BEING QUITE MILD. SWRLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MID/LOWER CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH LITTLE OR NO COOL ADVECTION FRIDAY AS WAVE TRAVELS ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER MOST AREAS.

WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE AND N/NERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTN
SHOULD BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE REGION. STILL APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REACH AT LEAST LOWER 70S PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS NOT
MUCH MIXING WAS NEEDED TO REACH THAT LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY STRONG...COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE ON
SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND COULD KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR
SATURDAYS LEVEL. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FROM EARLIER
FORECAST/MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF FLOW TURNS MORE SWRLY OR EVEN
SRLY COULD SEE NEED FOR BOOSTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH NEXT TROUGH CROSSING
THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH 12Z RUNS GENERATED LITTLE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR FA. DID MENTION SLGT CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS APPARENT CURRENT SMALL CHANCE. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE FA...BUT COOL ADVECTION WAS
DELAYED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A LITTLE WARMER READINGS...SPCLY SE...ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
AS VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SLIDE EAST...AN EXPANDING AREA OF FOG WILL
SPREAD EAST AS WELL. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
LOW TO GO IN REGARDS TO CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT OUR TAF
SITES...HOWEVER LIGHT WIND AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
EVENING RAIN WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION. WILL LEAVE TO AMENDMENTS IF
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW IFR OR BECOME LIFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>032-042.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN



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000
FXUS63 KGID 230622
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
122 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...HAVE DEVOTED THE VAST MAJORITY OF ATTENTION SO
FAR ON THIS SHIFT TO ONGOING/IMMINENT FOG ISSUES. WILL OBVIOUSLY
PROVIDE MORE DETAIL ON THE MAIN FORECAST DISCUSSION LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ENOUGH EVIDENCE EXISTED FROM
A COMBINATION OF CURRENT OBS AND SHORT-TERM VISIBILITY MODEL PROGS
FROM THE RAP13/HRRR TO SUPPORT EXPANDING SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES
ONTO THE ORIGINAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED BACK AT 950 PM. AS A
RESULT...ONLY 4 COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KS AND 3 COUNTIES ALONG
HWY 81 IN THE FAR EASTERN NEB CWA REMAIN VOID OF A FORMAL FOG
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE KEEPING OUT A CLOSE EYE FOR
POSSIBLE FURTHER EXPANSION. IN ADDITION...TACKED 1 MORE HOUR ONTO
THE ADVISORY TO RUN IT THROUGH 10 AM...AND IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THIS MIGHT NOT BE LONG ENOUGH IN SOME PLACES.

THE BOTTOM LINE...FOLKS WITHIN MUCH OF THE CWA NEED TO BE PREPARED
FOR A FOGGY MORNING COMMUTE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

KUEX INDICATES THE RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR
THE MOST PART. THAT SAID...SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS
OF JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS
HOUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT ALSO MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE EXPANDING FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 1/4SM OR LOWER. RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A LIGHT SURFACE WIND AND
PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THE CURRENT ADVISORY REFLECTS THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.

A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.

SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.

SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.

SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.

MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.

WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...BY FAR THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE IS THE ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WITHIN THE AREA RESULTING IN LIFR/VLIFR
VISIBILITY AND CEILING. THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THESE
VERY POOR CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO IMPROVE EVEN WELL PAST
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND HAVE AIMED THINGS ON A MORE PESSIMISTIC
NOTE WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 16Z...AND EVEN
THEN AT LEAST AN MVFR CEILING HANGING TOUGH INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND MID-
MORNING IS ADMITTEDLY RATHER LOW. SURFACE BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>063-072>076-082>086.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 230539
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. DEW POINT SPREADS DROPPING QUICKLY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT WILL BE OCCURRING IN
AREAS OF DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW LYING RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AREAS OF FOG WERE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND GENERALLY EAST
OF A NORTH PLATTE KLBF TO VALENTINE KVTN. HAVE INCLUDED FOG IN KLBF
TAF SITE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM KBBW TO KONL. LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DISSIPATING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KOAX 230443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WRN NEBR PER EARLY AFTN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS KICKING OFF AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT 20Z...FM NEAR WAYNE TO JUST WEST THEN SW
OF COLUMBUS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COOL FRONT THAT
WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES...OR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH...E THROUGH
THE FA TONIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. PER
HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/HRRR CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE SPREAD FROM W
TO EAST THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING WITH SOME TRAILING
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR FRONT KEEPING POPS
IN FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES.
WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP AND ASSOCD CLOUDS MOVING INTO OR EVEN EAST
OF FAR SERN ZONES BY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND AREAS OF SUCH WERE MAINTAINED.

THE REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY. A TRAILING WAVE ON THURSDAY
COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND WITH WEAK WINDS...MIXING
COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD EITHER BE EARLY
...LINGERING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SE...OR ARRIVING LATER IN
THE AFTN WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. ALSO AIRMASS SEEMS WARM ENOUGH THAT
HIGHS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S SHOULD AT LEAST BE OBSERVED PER NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO NEAR 900 MB AT KOMA.

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH BULK OF SUCH WOULD APPEAR TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA WHICH COULD LIMIT
MAX TEMPS IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FRIDAY BEING QUITE MILD. SWRLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MID/LOWER CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH LITTLE OR NO COOL ADVECTION FRIDAY AS WAVE TRAVELS ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER MOST AREAS.

WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE AND N/NERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTN
SHOULD BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE REGION. STILL APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REACH AT LEAST LOWER 70S PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS NOT
MUCH MIXING WAS NEEDED TO REACH THAT LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY STRONG...COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE ON
SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND COULD KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR
SATURDAYS LEVEL. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FROM EARLIER
FORECAST/MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF FLOW TURNS MORE SWRLY OR EVEN
SRLY COULD SEE NEED FOR BOOSTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH NEXT TROUGH CROSSING
THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH 12Z RUNS GENERATED LITTLE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR FA. DID MENTION SLGT CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS APPARENT CURRENT SMALL CHANCE. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE FA...BUT COOL ADVECTION WAS
DELAYED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A LITTLE WARMER READINGS...SPCLY SE...ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
AS VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SLIDE EAST...AN EXPANDING AREA OF FOG WILL
SPREAD EAST AS WELL. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
LOW TO GO IN REGARDS TO CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT OUR TAF
SITES...HOWEVER LIGHT WIND AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
EVENING RAIN WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION. WILL LEAVE TO AMENDMENTS IF
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW IFR OR BECOME LIFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 230443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WRN NEBR PER EARLY AFTN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS KICKING OFF AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT 20Z...FM NEAR WAYNE TO JUST WEST THEN SW
OF COLUMBUS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COOL FRONT THAT
WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES...OR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH...E THROUGH
THE FA TONIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. PER
HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/HRRR CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE SPREAD FROM W
TO EAST THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING WITH SOME TRAILING
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR FRONT KEEPING POPS
IN FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES.
WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP AND ASSOCD CLOUDS MOVING INTO OR EVEN EAST
OF FAR SERN ZONES BY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND AREAS OF SUCH WERE MAINTAINED.

THE REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY. A TRAILING WAVE ON THURSDAY
COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND WITH WEAK WINDS...MIXING
COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD EITHER BE EARLY
...LINGERING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SE...OR ARRIVING LATER IN
THE AFTN WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. ALSO AIRMASS SEEMS WARM ENOUGH THAT
HIGHS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S SHOULD AT LEAST BE OBSERVED PER NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO NEAR 900 MB AT KOMA.

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH BULK OF SUCH WOULD APPEAR TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA WHICH COULD LIMIT
MAX TEMPS IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FRIDAY BEING QUITE MILD. SWRLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MID/LOWER CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH LITTLE OR NO COOL ADVECTION FRIDAY AS WAVE TRAVELS ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER MOST AREAS.

WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE AND N/NERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTN
SHOULD BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE REGION. STILL APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REACH AT LEAST LOWER 70S PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS NOT
MUCH MIXING WAS NEEDED TO REACH THAT LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY STRONG...COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE ON
SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND COULD KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR
SATURDAYS LEVEL. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FROM EARLIER
FORECAST/MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF FLOW TURNS MORE SWRLY OR EVEN
SRLY COULD SEE NEED FOR BOOSTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH NEXT TROUGH CROSSING
THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH 12Z RUNS GENERATED LITTLE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR FA. DID MENTION SLGT CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS APPARENT CURRENT SMALL CHANCE. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE FA...BUT COOL ADVECTION WAS
DELAYED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A LITTLE WARMER READINGS...SPCLY SE...ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
AS VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SLIDE EAST...AN EXPANDING AREA OF FOG WILL
SPREAD EAST AS WELL. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
LOW TO GO IN REGARDS TO CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT OUR TAF
SITES...HOWEVER LIGHT WIND AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
EVENING RAIN WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION. WILL LEAVE TO AMENDMENTS IF
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW IFR OR BECOME LIFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 230418 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1118 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. DEW POINT SPREADS DROPPING QUICKLY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT WILL BE OCCURRING IN
AREAS OF DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW LYING RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FEW SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 230418 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1118 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. DEW POINT SPREADS DROPPING QUICKLY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT WILL BE OCCURRING IN
AREAS OF DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW LYING RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FEW SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KGID 230305
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

KUEX INDICATES THE RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FOR
THE MOST PART. THAT SAID...SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS
OF JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS
HOUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT ALSO MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.

BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE EXPANDING FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281...HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 1/4SM OR LOWER. RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A LIGHT SURFACE WIND AND
PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND GIVEN THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT THE CURRENT ADVISORY REFLECTS THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.

A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.

SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.

SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.

SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.

MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.

WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

KUEX INDICATES PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF EAR AND GRI...AND
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A LOW CEILING...BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000FT AGL...WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS LOW CEILING WILL MOVE EAST OF GRI
BY 02Z...IF NOT A TOUCH SOONER AND NOTHING MORE THAN FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL ARE FORECAST AT GRI AFTER 02Z.
THE LOW CEILING HAS ALREADY CLEARED EAR AND FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL ARE EXPECTED AT EAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT GRI TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WILL CLEAR BY 02Z IF NOT SOONER. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
WILL NOT IMPACT EAR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION WILL HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES STARTING
06Z TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE COULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ONE
SET OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VISIBILITY RESTRICTION COULD DROP TO IFR
OR LOWER...PRIMARILY AT GRI. NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE
ONE SET OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED AND
AS A RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT BOTH TAF SITES
06-14Z...AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS CONTINUE TO EVALUATE. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
     047-061-062-073-074-083-084.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 222359 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FEW SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 222359 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FEW SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KGID 222341
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.

A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.

SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.

SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.

SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.

MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.

WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

KUEX INDICATES PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF EAR AND GRI...AND
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A LOW CEILING...BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000FT AGL...WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS LOW CEILING WILL MOVE EAST OF GRI
BY 02Z...IF NOT A TOUCH SOONER AND NOTHING MORE THAN FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL ARE FORECAST AT GRI AFTER 02Z.
THE LOW CEILING HAS ALREADY CLEARED EAR AND FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL ARE EXPECTED AT EAR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION TO AROUND 6SM WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT GRI TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND WILL CLEAR BY 02Z IF NOT SOONER. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
WILL NOT IMPACT EAR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION WILL HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES STARTING
06Z TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE COULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ONE
SET OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VISIBILITY RESTRICTION COULD DROP TO IFR
OR LOWER...PRIMARILY AT GRI. NOT READY TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE
ONE SET OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED AND
AS A RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT BOTH TAF SITES
06-14Z...AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS CONTINUE TO EVALUATE. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 222320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
620 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WRN NEBR PER EARLY AFTN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS KICKING OFF AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT 20Z...FM NEAR WAYNE TO JUST WEST THEN SW
OF COLUMBUS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COOL FRONT THAT
WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES...OR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH...E THROUGH
THE FA TONIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. PER
HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/HRRR CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE SPREAD FROM W
TO EAST THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING WITH SOME TRAILING
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR FRONT KEEPING POPS
IN FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES.
WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP AND ASSOCD CLOUDS MOVING INTO OR EVEN EAST
OF FAR SERN ZONES BY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND AREAS OF SUCH WERE MAINTAINED.

THE REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY. A TRAILING WAVE ON THURSDAY
COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND WITH WEAK WINDS...MIXING
COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD EITHER BE EARLY
...LINGERING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SE...OR ARRIVING LATER IN
THE AFTN WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. ALSO AIRMASS SEEMS WARM ENOUGH THAT
HIGHS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S SHOULD AT LEAST BE OBSERVED PER NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO NEAR 900 MB AT KOMA.

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH BULK OF SUCH WOULD APPEAR TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA WHICH COULD LIMIT
MAX TEMPS IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FRIDAY BEING QUITE MILD. SWRLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MID/LOWER CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH LITTLE OR NO COOL ADVECTION FRIDAY AS WAVE TRAVELS ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER MOST AREAS.

WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE AND N/NERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTN
SHOULD BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE REGION. STILL APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REACH AT LEAST LOWER 70S PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS NOT
MUCH MIXING WAS NEEDED TO REACH THAT LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY STRONG...COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE ON
SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND COULD KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR
SATURDAYS LEVEL. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FROM EARLIER
FORECAST/MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF FLOW TURNS MORE SWRLY OR EVEN
SRLY COULD SEE NEED FOR BOOSTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH NEXT TROUGH CROSSING
THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH 12Z RUNS GENERATED LITTLE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR FA. DID MENTION SLGT CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS APPARENT CURRENT SMALL CHANCE. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE FA...BUT COOL ADVECTION WAS
DELAYED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A LITTLE WARMER READINGS...SPCLY SE...ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF KOFK AND HAVE BEEN
ONGOING IN KLNK FOR A BIT. SHOWERS ARE JUST MOVING INTO KOMA AT
TAF ISSUANCE AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS OR SO. AFTER
THESE MOVE OUT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 222015
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH WRN NEBR PER EARLY AFTN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS KICKING OFF AN INCREASING CONVECTIVE BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT 20Z...FM NEAR WAYNE TO JUST WEST THEN SW
OF COLUMBUS. STRONGER ACTIVITY WAS IN ADVANCE OF A COOL FRONT THAT
WAS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES...OR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH...E THROUGH
THE FA TONIGHT AS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. PER
HIGHER RESOLUTION RUC/HRRR CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE SPREAD FROM W
TO EAST THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING WITH SOME TRAILING
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING NEAR FRONT KEEPING POPS
IN FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER AFTER INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES.
WITH ALL OF THE PRECIP AND ASSOCD CLOUDS MOVING INTO OR EVEN EAST
OF FAR SERN ZONES BY MORNING...CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND AREAS OF SUCH WERE MAINTAINED.

THE REST OF SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY. A TRAILING WAVE ON THURSDAY
COULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND WITH WEAK WINDS...MIXING
COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD EITHER BE EARLY
...LINGERING BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SE...OR ARRIVING LATER IN
THE AFTN WITH THIS NEXT WAVE. ALSO AIRMASS SEEMS WARM ENOUGH THAT
HIGHS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S SHOULD AT LEAST BE OBSERVED PER NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO NEAR 900 MB AT KOMA.

WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH BULK OF SUCH WOULD APPEAR TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS THE FA WHICH COULD LIMIT
MAX TEMPS IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FRIDAY BEING QUITE MILD. SWRLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MID/LOWER CLOUDS THU NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT
WITH LITTLE OR NO COOL ADVECTION FRIDAY AS WAVE TRAVELS ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS BETTER MOST AREAS.

WEAK COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE AND N/NERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTN
SHOULD BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE REGION. STILL APPEARS MOST
AREAS WILL REACH AT LEAST LOWER 70S PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS NOT
MUCH MIXING WAS NEEDED TO REACH THAT LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY STRONG...COOL ADVECTION BEHIND WAVE ON
SATURDAY LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AND COULD KEEP HIGHS ON SUNDAY NEAR
SATURDAYS LEVEL. LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FROM EARLIER
FORECAST/MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF FLOW TURNS MORE SWRLY OR EVEN
SRLY COULD SEE NEED FOR BOOSTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH NEXT TROUGH CROSSING
THE PLAINS MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BOTH 12Z RUNS GENERATED LITTLE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR FA. DID MENTION SLGT CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS APPARENT CURRENT SMALL CHANCE. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO THE FA...BUT COOL ADVECTION WAS
DELAYED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING A LITTLE WARMER READINGS...SPCLY SE...ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TIMING NARROW LINE OF SHRA APPROACHING ERN
NEB THIS AFTN. LOOKING AT SFC OBS OUT WEST WHERE FRONTAL BNDRY
HAS ALREADY PUSHED THRU...CIGS WITH PCPN ACTIVITY NEVER DROPPED
BELOW VFR. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT MOISTURE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
AS BNDRY PUSHES INTO ERN NEB TO ALLOW CIGS TO DROP INTO MVFR
RANGE DURING FROPA AT EACH TAF SITE. THEREFORE HAVE TEMPO GROUPS
IN PLACE FOR MVFR COND/-SHRA DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PD.
EXPECT CONDITIONS THEN TO IMPROVE TO VFR GENERALLY TWD 03Z THIS
EVENING. AT KOMA/KLNK...CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBYS BTWN 09Z-14Z THURS
MORNING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KLBF 222008
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
308 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS. AS OF 12 PM CDT...AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HWY 83 HAVE RETURNED TO VFR. PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND REMNANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS APPEAR TO BE SOUTH AND EAST
OF KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...DS







000
FXUS63 KGID 222000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
300 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
AS WELL. A SOLID LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MARCHING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE TIME FRAME IS LIMITED FOR
PRECIPITATION AS FLOW REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...HELPING THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST. SOME SOLUTIONS...SUCH AS THE NAM
AND HRRR...INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE CURRENT BAND/BANDS OF RAIN. THIS
WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST A
BIT...AND COULD LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO IN OUR EAST
SOUTHEAST.

A BIG CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BOTH THE SREF AND RAP
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE CWA IS IN FOR SOME FOG...AS THE
SKY CLEARS AND WIND BECOMES LIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE/COLD FRONT. WITH
MOST AREAS GETTING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TODAY...I HAVE DECIDED TO
HIT THE FOG WORDING QUITE A BIT HARDER...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY OF HALF MILE OR LESS. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HRRR VISIBILITY LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS
NUMERICAL MODEL HITS THE FOG FAIRLY HARD AS WELL...WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THURSDAY...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MILD...BUT I DID LOWER THEM A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED
ON BCCONSRAW...WHICH I TEND TO LIKE THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ALOFT: THE MEAN RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CNTRL USA THRU SUN...
UNTIL THE TROF OVER THE E PAC MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
THRU HERE MON AND WILL BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL WX MAKER. LOW-AMPLITUDE
WNW FLOW ARRIVE IN ITS WAKE TUE-WED.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WILL BE HEADING E ACROSS CANADA. ITS ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT WILL SLIP THRU HERE FRI NIGHT WITH NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN SAT. MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE W. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FCST ISSUE HERE /SEE BELOW/. THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH COOL HIGH PRES TO
FOLLOW TUE-WED.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

FRI: WARM SECTOR. WONDERFULLY WARM WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST. NO RECORDS THREATENED...BUT AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEM.

SAT: NOT AS WARM...BUT STILL A SOLID 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS. GEM/EC/GFS/NAM 2M TEMPS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN MEX MOS /BY 10F/. AND WITH NO ESSENTIALLY
NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED PER VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS...AM NOT SURE
WHY. SO THE DIFF WAS SPLIT INCORPORATING THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A
BIAS CORRECTION WHICH DID NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. ANYWAY YOU
SLICE IT...LIGHT WINDS AND STILL VERY NICE.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING: WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS THE EC/GFS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY BURST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT /K-INDEX 30 AND SHOWALTER
INDEX -1/ AS HIGHER 850 MB DEWPOINTS ADVECT BACK IN FROM THE S.

FOR WHAT IT/S WORTH 06Z/12Z GFS ARE OUTPUTTING SOME DRIBBLES OF
LIGHT QPF.

SUN: WE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPS. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING
BATCH OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE POCKETS OF COOLER 850 MB
TEMPS ARE THE HINT. BELIEVE WE MAY BE TOO WARM. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE TOO WARM BY AT LEAST 5F.

SUN NIGHT: COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PROBABLY DRY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
CAP.

MON: BREEZY AND COOLER IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. POSSIBLY A POST-
FRONTAL SHWR OR TWO. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

TUE: EVEN COOLER. TEMPS PROBABLY 5F BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL FCST SNAG TUE IS THE 00Z/12Z EC HAVE A MUCH
SHARPER/SHORTER WAVELENGTH TO THE UPPER TROF MOVING THRU. THEY
DIFFER ON LOCATION BUT THIS SUGGESTS A LOW COULD FORM ON THE FRONT S
AND E OF THE FCST AREA.

WED: DRY WITH TEMP RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
APPROACHING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT SIGNALS ARE NOT
STRONG.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 221822
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
122 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
DEFINITE CATEGORY WITHIN THE CORE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST. THE HRRR SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION QUITE
WELL...AND IS MY PREFERRED SHORT-TERM NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BY FAR THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE
FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST BRIEF MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST-
TO-EAST MAINLY FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING. WHILE THE
ENTIRE CWA STANDS AT LEAST A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...THE HIGHEST 70-80 PERCENT CHANCES CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
APPEAR TO FOCUS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF REALIZING A GENERAL
0.25-0.50 INCH AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXISTS. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS
LIKELY IN MOST AREAS...WANT TO EMPHASIZE TWO MAIN POINTS HERE FOR
THE PUBLIC MESSAGE: 1) THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN ALL DAY/ALL EVENING
RAIN- OUT...AS ANY GIVEN LOCATION SHOULD ROUGHLY OBSERVE ONLY A
2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. 2) FOLLOWING IN LINE
WITH POINT 1 ABOUT THIS NOT BEING AN ALL DAY EVENT...FOLKS FROM
THE TRI- CITIES EASTWARD PROBABLY WONT SEE A SINGLE DROP UNTIL
GENERALLY THE NOON-2PM TIME FRAME...AND THOSE COUNTIES IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA ALONG HIGHWAY 81 MAY VERY WELL BE WAITING ON RAIN
UNTIL AT LEAST THE 2-4 PM TIME FRAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES OUT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SECONDARY SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES
WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST PATCHY/POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG MIGHT
FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ITS WAKE.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...ALL HAS BEEN
QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS THE NEAREST RAIN STILL REMAINS
WELL OUT WEST IN THE PANHANDLE. FURTHERMORE...AS SUSPECTED HERE 24
HOURS AGO...DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS EVIDENCED BY FAIRLY
STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY IN THE 7-13 MPH RANGE HAS
APPARENTLY THWARTED ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST (MEANING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 2-3 MILES)...AND THUS THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PULLED. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...EVEN A
LOWER STRATUS DECK HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH ANY LIMITED SKY COVER AT THIS POINT CONSISTING OF ONLY
THE MID-HIGH VARIETY. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES REGION HIGH AND A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
CO IS DRIVING THE STEADY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BREEZES...WHICH ARE
WORKING TO KEEP TEMPS NOTICEABLY MILDER AND MORE UNIFORM THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 53-57 RANGE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT CHANGES
ARE UNDERWAY AS A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES DEPARTING EAST OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SMALL-SCALE
DISTURBANCES ARE STARTING TO ENTER THE FAR WESTERN NEB/KS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY PARENT
VORT MAX TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MT/CANADA
BORDER AREA.

FORECAST WISE...AND STARTING WITH THE INITIAL FEW HOURS THROUGH
14Z/9AM...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE VERY EASTERN EDGES OF A FEW SHOWERS COULD
BE IMPINGING ON THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. IN THE
MEANTIME...ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE IS MONITORING WHETHER OR NOT ANY
AT LEAST LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW STRATUS TRY TO FORM.

GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND AS TOUCHED ON AT
THE TOP...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
CWA FROM WEST-TO-EAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THIS IS A FAIRLY
CLASSIC...MODESTLY-STRONGLY FORCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE
ENTIRE BROAD TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PASS
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HELPING
TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING LINE OF SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND ACTUALLY INCREASED THESE WIND SPEEDS
SOMEWHAT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 15+ MPH AND GUSTS AT
LEAST 20-25 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
THEY TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE. AS ALSO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THINK THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REALIZE RAIN TOTALS NO MORE THAN
0.25-0.50 INCH...ALTHOUGH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY
PUSH A FEW SPOTS MAYBE EVEN CLOSER TO 1 INCH...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE A CONSIDERABLE EXCEPTION TO THE NORM. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...WHILE CERTAINLY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...THE PRESENCE OF MAYBE UP TO 400-600 J/KG OF MIXED-
LAYER CAPE PER THE 06Z NAM COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT A FEW CORES WITH
SMALL HAIL ESPECIALLY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TEMP-WISE...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT OVERLY-HIGH GIVEN THE VARIOUS OFFSETTING FACTORS INCLUDING
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT A RELATIVELY MILD START. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED THOUGH...OPTED TO NUDGE HIGHS UP 1-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST PLACES...GENERALLY AIMING FOR UPPER 60S-
LOW 70S WEST TO MAINLY MID 70S EAST.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...PER THE PREFERRED LOOK OF
VARIOUS HIGHER-RES MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW...BY 00Z/7PM THE VAST MAJORITY OF ONGOING
PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR/EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WITH MOST PLACES FARTHER WEST ALREADY DRYING OUT. AS
THE LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS
DEPARTURE...THE NARROW ZONE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
GRADUALLY DEPART AS WELL...AND BY 03Z/10PM...ONLY PLACES GENERALLY
EAST OF AN OSCEOLA-SUPERIOR-OSBORNE KS LINE CONTINUE TO CARRY A
20+ PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND HAVE ALL MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
WHATSOEVER OUT OF EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY 08Z/2AM...AND EVEN
THIS MAY BE GENEROUSLY LONG. IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING PRECIP...THE
MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...WITH THE LATEST NAM12 VISIBILITY PRODUCT
ACTUALLY SUGGESTING THAT FAIRLY LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD
MATERIALIZE. ALTHOUGH NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR FOG FORMATION BY ANY
MEANS (IT RARELY IS)...FELT THE FAVORABLE FACTORS OF CLEARING
SKIES OVER WET GROUND IN THE PRESENCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES LESS THAN 5 MPH WAS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GENERIC PATCHY FOG
MENTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO GET THE BALL ROLLING IN
CASE IT ULTIMATELY AMOUNTS TO SOMETHING IMPACTFUL. ONE POSSIBLE
FOG-MITIGATING FACTOR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LATE-NIGHT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 06Z NAM...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT OVERNIGHT SKIES TO AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUD BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRIMARY WAVE. MADE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...BLENDING VARIOUS
GUIDANCE/MODELS TO YIELD A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 FAR NORTHWEST TO LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S...WHILE HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE AT LEAST INTO THE 70S WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME LOWER 80S AROUND
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH JUST A LOW END CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY ALONG AND BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK VORT MAX ON
THURSDAY THAT WILL BE TRAILING THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT WILL
HAVE PASSED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SECONDARY
VORT MAX ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE LESS FORCING AND LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AND A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DRY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM DOES TRY TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
VERY WEAK RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FEATURE/SUBTLE TROUGH. AM NOT BUYING INTO THE
NAM POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS VERY HIGH AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY
LOCATED OVER THE AREA BY THAT POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ADDING TO THE NICE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST MODEL RUNS
HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN FROM 24HRS AGO...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY ON SUNDAY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST HIGHS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING OF THAT
FRONT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE TRACKED ACROSS...OR WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MEAN THAT
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH KANSAS ZONES MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER. THERE WILL BE
SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A GREAT CHANCE AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND AMOUNTS ALSO DO NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR VERY SIGNIFICANT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COOL DRY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
APPROACHING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT SIGNALS ARE NOT
STRONG.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 221801
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BY FAR THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE
FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST BRIEF MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST-
TO-EAST MAINLY FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING. WHILE THE
ENTIRE CWA STANDS AT LEAST A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...THE HIGHEST 70-80 PERCENT CHANCES CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
APPEAR TO FOCUS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF REALIZING A GENERAL
0.25-0.50 INCH AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXISTS. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS
LIKELY IN MOST AREAS...WANT TO EMPHASIZE TWO MAIN POINTS HERE FOR
THE PUBLIC MESSAGE: 1) THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN ALL DAY/ALL EVENING
RAIN- OUT...AS ANY GIVEN LOCATION SHOULD ROUGHLY OBSERVE ONLY A
2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. 2) FOLLOWING IN LINE
WITH POINT 1 ABOUT THIS NOT BEING AN ALL DAY EVENT...FOLKS FROM
THE TRI- CITIES EASTWARD PROBABLY WONT SEE A SINGLE DROP UNTIL
GENERALLY THE NOON-2PM TIME FRAME...AND THOSE COUNTIES IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA ALONG HIGHWAY 81 MAY VERY WELL BE WAITING ON RAIN
UNTIL AT LEAST THE 2-4 PM TIME FRAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES OUT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SECONDARY SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES
WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST PATCHY/POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG MIGHT
FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ITS WAKE.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...ALL HAS BEEN
QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS THE NEAREST RAIN STILL REMAINS
WELL OUT WEST IN THE PANHANDLE. FURTHERMORE...AS SUSPECTED HERE 24
HOURS AGO...DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS EVIDENCED BY FAIRLY
STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY IN THE 7-13 MPH RANGE HAS
APPARENTLY THWARTED ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST (MEANING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 2-3 MILES)...AND THUS THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PULLED. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...EVEN A
LOWER STRATUS DECK HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH ANY LIMITED SKY COVER AT THIS POINT CONSISTING OF ONLY
THE MID-HIGH VARIETY. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES REGION HIGH AND A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
CO IS DRIVING THE STEADY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BREEZES...WHICH ARE
WORKING TO KEEP TEMPS NOTICEABLY MILDER AND MORE UNIFORM THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 53-57 RANGE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT CHANGES
ARE UNDERWAY AS A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES DEPARTING EAST OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SMALL-SCALE
DISTURBANCES ARE STARTING TO ENTER THE FAR WESTERN NEB/KS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY PARENT
VORT MAX TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MT/CANADA
BORDER AREA.

FORECAST WISE...AND STARTING WITH THE INITIAL FEW HOURS THROUGH
14Z/9AM...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE VERY EASTERN EDGES OF A FEW SHOWERS COULD
BE IMPINGING ON THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. IN THE
MEANTIME...ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE IS MONITORING WHETHER OR NOT ANY
AT LEAST LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW STRATUS TRY TO FORM.

GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND AS TOUCHED ON AT
THE TOP...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
CWA FROM WEST-TO-EAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THIS IS A FAIRLY
CLASSIC...MODESTLY-STRONGLY FORCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE
ENTIRE BROAD TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PASS
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HELPING
TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING LINE OF SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND ACTUALLY INCREASED THESE WIND SPEEDS
SOMEWHAT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 15+ MPH AND GUSTS AT
LEAST 20-25 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
THEY TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE. AS ALSO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THINK THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REALIZE RAIN TOTALS NO MORE THAN
0.25-0.50 INCH...ALTHOUGH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY
PUSH A FEW SPOTS MAYBE EVEN CLOSER TO 1 INCH...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE A CONSIDERABLE EXCEPTION TO THE NORM. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...WHILE CERTAINLY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...THE PRESENCE OF MAYBE UP TO 400-600 J/KG OF MIXED-
LAYER CAPE PER THE 06Z NAM COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT A FEW CORES WITH
SMALL HAIL ESPECIALLY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TEMP-WISE...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT OVERLY-HIGH GIVEN THE VARIOUS OFFSETTING FACTORS INCLUDING
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT A RELATIVELY MILD START. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED THOUGH...OPTED TO NUDGE HIGHS UP 1-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST PLACES...GENERALLY AIMING FOR UPPER 60S-
LOW 70S WEST TO MAINLY MID 70S EAST.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...PER THE PREFERRED LOOK OF
VARIOUS HIGHER-RES MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW...BY 00Z/7PM THE VAST MAJORITY OF ONGOING
PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR/EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WITH MOST PLACES FARTHER WEST ALREADY DRYING OUT. AS
THE LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS
DEPARTURE...THE NARROW ZONE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
GRADUALLY DEPART AS WELL...AND BY 03Z/10PM...ONLY PLACES GENERALLY
EAST OF AN OSCEOLA-SUPERIOR-OSBORNE KS LINE CONTINUE TO CARRY A
20+ PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND HAVE ALL MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
WHATSOEVER OUT OF EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY 08Z/2AM...AND EVEN
THIS MAY BE GENEROUSLY LONG. IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING PRECIP...THE
MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...WITH THE LATEST NAM12 VISIBILITY PRODUCT
ACTUALLY SUGGESTING THAT FAIRLY LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD
MATERIALIZE. ALTHOUGH NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR FOG FORMATION BY ANY
MEANS (IT RARELY IS)...FELT THE FAVORABLE FACTORS OF CLEARING
SKIES OVER WET GROUND IN THE PRESENCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES LESS THAN 5 MPH WAS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GENERIC PATCHY FOG
MENTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO GET THE BALL ROLLING IN
CASE IT ULTIMATELY AMOUNTS TO SOMETHING IMPACTFUL. ONE POSSIBLE
FOG-MITIGATING FACTOR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LATE-NIGHT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 06Z NAM...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT OVERNIGHT SKIES TO AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUD BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRIMARY WAVE. MADE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...BLENDING VARIOUS
GUIDANCE/MODELS TO YIELD A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 FAR NORTHWEST TO LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S...WHILE HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE AT LEAST INTO THE 70S WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME LOWER 80S AROUND
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH JUST A LOW END CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY ALONG AND BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK VORT MAX ON
THURSDAY THAT WILL BE TRAILING THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT WILL
HAVE PASSED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SECONDARY
VORT MAX ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE LESS FORCING AND LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AND A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DRY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM DOES TRY TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
VERY WEAK RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FEATURE/SUBTLE TROUGH. AM NOT BUYING INTO THE
NAM POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS VERY HIGH AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY
LOCATED OVER THE AREA BY THAT POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ADDING TO THE NICE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST MODEL RUNS
HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN FROM 24HRS AGO...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY ON SUNDAY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST HIGHS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING OF THAT
FRONT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE TRACKED ACROSS...OR WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MEAN THAT
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH KANSAS ZONES MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER. THERE WILL BE
SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A GREAT CHANCE AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND AMOUNTS ALSO DO NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR VERY SIGNIFICANT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COOL DRY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
APPROACHING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT SIGNALS ARE NOT
STRONG.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 221801
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BY FAR THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE
FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST BRIEF MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST-
TO-EAST MAINLY FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING. WHILE THE
ENTIRE CWA STANDS AT LEAST A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...THE HIGHEST 70-80 PERCENT CHANCES CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
APPEAR TO FOCUS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF REALIZING A GENERAL
0.25-0.50 INCH AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXISTS. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS
LIKELY IN MOST AREAS...WANT TO EMPHASIZE TWO MAIN POINTS HERE FOR
THE PUBLIC MESSAGE: 1) THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN ALL DAY/ALL EVENING
RAIN- OUT...AS ANY GIVEN LOCATION SHOULD ROUGHLY OBSERVE ONLY A
2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. 2) FOLLOWING IN LINE
WITH POINT 1 ABOUT THIS NOT BEING AN ALL DAY EVENT...FOLKS FROM
THE TRI- CITIES EASTWARD PROBABLY WONT SEE A SINGLE DROP UNTIL
GENERALLY THE NOON-2PM TIME FRAME...AND THOSE COUNTIES IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA ALONG HIGHWAY 81 MAY VERY WELL BE WAITING ON RAIN
UNTIL AT LEAST THE 2-4 PM TIME FRAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES OUT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SECONDARY SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES
WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST PATCHY/POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG MIGHT
FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ITS WAKE.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...ALL HAS BEEN
QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS THE NEAREST RAIN STILL REMAINS
WELL OUT WEST IN THE PANHANDLE. FURTHERMORE...AS SUSPECTED HERE 24
HOURS AGO...DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS EVIDENCED BY FAIRLY
STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY IN THE 7-13 MPH RANGE HAS
APPARENTLY THWARTED ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST (MEANING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 2-3 MILES)...AND THUS THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PULLED. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...EVEN A
LOWER STRATUS DECK HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH ANY LIMITED SKY COVER AT THIS POINT CONSISTING OF ONLY
THE MID-HIGH VARIETY. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES REGION HIGH AND A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
CO IS DRIVING THE STEADY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BREEZES...WHICH ARE
WORKING TO KEEP TEMPS NOTICEABLY MILDER AND MORE UNIFORM THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 53-57 RANGE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT CHANGES
ARE UNDERWAY AS A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES DEPARTING EAST OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SMALL-SCALE
DISTURBANCES ARE STARTING TO ENTER THE FAR WESTERN NEB/KS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY PARENT
VORT MAX TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MT/CANADA
BORDER AREA.

FORECAST WISE...AND STARTING WITH THE INITIAL FEW HOURS THROUGH
14Z/9AM...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE VERY EASTERN EDGES OF A FEW SHOWERS COULD
BE IMPINGING ON THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. IN THE
MEANTIME...ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE IS MONITORING WHETHER OR NOT ANY
AT LEAST LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW STRATUS TRY TO FORM.

GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND AS TOUCHED ON AT
THE TOP...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
CWA FROM WEST-TO-EAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THIS IS A FAIRLY
CLASSIC...MODESTLY-STRONGLY FORCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE
ENTIRE BROAD TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PASS
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HELPING
TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING LINE OF SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND ACTUALLY INCREASED THESE WIND SPEEDS
SOMEWHAT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 15+ MPH AND GUSTS AT
LEAST 20-25 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
THEY TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE. AS ALSO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THINK THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REALIZE RAIN TOTALS NO MORE THAN
0.25-0.50 INCH...ALTHOUGH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY
PUSH A FEW SPOTS MAYBE EVEN CLOSER TO 1 INCH...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE A CONSIDERABLE EXCEPTION TO THE NORM. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...WHILE CERTAINLY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...THE PRESENCE OF MAYBE UP TO 400-600 J/KG OF MIXED-
LAYER CAPE PER THE 06Z NAM COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT A FEW CORES WITH
SMALL HAIL ESPECIALLY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TEMP-WISE...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT OVERLY-HIGH GIVEN THE VARIOUS OFFSETTING FACTORS INCLUDING
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT A RELATIVELY MILD START. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED THOUGH...OPTED TO NUDGE HIGHS UP 1-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST PLACES...GENERALLY AIMING FOR UPPER 60S-
LOW 70S WEST TO MAINLY MID 70S EAST.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...PER THE PREFERRED LOOK OF
VARIOUS HIGHER-RES MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW...BY 00Z/7PM THE VAST MAJORITY OF ONGOING
PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR/EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WITH MOST PLACES FARTHER WEST ALREADY DRYING OUT. AS
THE LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS
DEPARTURE...THE NARROW ZONE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
GRADUALLY DEPART AS WELL...AND BY 03Z/10PM...ONLY PLACES GENERALLY
EAST OF AN OSCEOLA-SUPERIOR-OSBORNE KS LINE CONTINUE TO CARRY A
20+ PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND HAVE ALL MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
WHATSOEVER OUT OF EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY 08Z/2AM...AND EVEN
THIS MAY BE GENEROUSLY LONG. IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING PRECIP...THE
MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...WITH THE LATEST NAM12 VISIBILITY PRODUCT
ACTUALLY SUGGESTING THAT FAIRLY LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD
MATERIALIZE. ALTHOUGH NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR FOG FORMATION BY ANY
MEANS (IT RARELY IS)...FELT THE FAVORABLE FACTORS OF CLEARING
SKIES OVER WET GROUND IN THE PRESENCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES LESS THAN 5 MPH WAS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GENERIC PATCHY FOG
MENTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO GET THE BALL ROLLING IN
CASE IT ULTIMATELY AMOUNTS TO SOMETHING IMPACTFUL. ONE POSSIBLE
FOG-MITIGATING FACTOR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LATE-NIGHT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 06Z NAM...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT OVERNIGHT SKIES TO AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUD BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRIMARY WAVE. MADE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...BLENDING VARIOUS
GUIDANCE/MODELS TO YIELD A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 FAR NORTHWEST TO LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S...WHILE HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE AT LEAST INTO THE 70S WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME LOWER 80S AROUND
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH JUST A LOW END CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY ALONG AND BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK VORT MAX ON
THURSDAY THAT WILL BE TRAILING THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT WILL
HAVE PASSED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SECONDARY
VORT MAX ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE LESS FORCING AND LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AND A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DRY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM DOES TRY TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
VERY WEAK RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FEATURE/SUBTLE TROUGH. AM NOT BUYING INTO THE
NAM POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS VERY HIGH AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY
LOCATED OVER THE AREA BY THAT POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ADDING TO THE NICE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST MODEL RUNS
HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN FROM 24HRS AGO...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY ON SUNDAY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST HIGHS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING OF THAT
FRONT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE TRACKED ACROSS...OR WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MEAN THAT
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH KANSAS ZONES MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER. THERE WILL BE
SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A GREAT CHANCE AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND AMOUNTS ALSO DO NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR VERY SIGNIFICANT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COOL DRY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
APPROACHING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT SIGNALS ARE NOT
STRONG.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 221743
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1243 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA
AT 07Z WITH RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. SHORT RANGE MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 18Z EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH POPS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING OVER EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH CLEARING FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE FRONT. FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN MOVE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. GFS GIVES THE AREA HIGHER
POPS AS IT STALLS FRONT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE EURO MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WITH LOWER POPS DURING THIS TIME. CONTINUED TO STAY GUIDANCE AT
THIS POINT AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TIMING NARROW LINE OF SHRA APPROACHING ERN
NEB THIS AFTN. LOOKING AT SFC OBS OUT WEST WHERE FRONTAL BNDRY
HAS ALREADY PUSHED THRU...CIGS WITH PCPN ACTIVITY NEVER DROPPED
BELOW VFR. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT MOISTURE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
AS BNDRY PUSHES INTO ERN NEB TO ALLOW CIGS TO DROP INTO MVFR
RANGE DURING FROPA AT EACH TAF SITE. THEREFORE HAVE TEMPO GROUPS
IN PLACE FOR MVFR COND/-SHRA DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PD.
EXPECT CONDITIONS THEN TO IMPROVE TO VFR GENERALLY TWD 03Z THIS
EVENING. AT KOMA/KLNK...CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBYS BTWN 09Z-14Z THURS
MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 221743
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1243 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA
AT 07Z WITH RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. SHORT RANGE MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 18Z EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH POPS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING OVER EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH CLEARING FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE FRONT. FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN MOVE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. GFS GIVES THE AREA HIGHER
POPS AS IT STALLS FRONT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE EURO MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WITH LOWER POPS DURING THIS TIME. CONTINUED TO STAY GUIDANCE AT
THIS POINT AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TIMING NARROW LINE OF SHRA APPROACHING ERN
NEB THIS AFTN. LOOKING AT SFC OBS OUT WEST WHERE FRONTAL BNDRY
HAS ALREADY PUSHED THRU...CIGS WITH PCPN ACTIVITY NEVER DROPPED
BELOW VFR. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT MOISTURE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
AS BNDRY PUSHES INTO ERN NEB TO ALLOW CIGS TO DROP INTO MVFR
RANGE DURING FROPA AT EACH TAF SITE. THEREFORE HAVE TEMPO GROUPS
IN PLACE FOR MVFR COND/-SHRA DURING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING PD.
EXPECT CONDITIONS THEN TO IMPROVE TO VFR GENERALLY TWD 03Z THIS
EVENING. AT KOMA/KLNK...CLEARING SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/MOIST LOW
LAYERS MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBYS BTWN 09Z-14Z THURS
MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KLBF 221722
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1222 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH A FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. IT ALSO SHOWED A PLUME OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH NEBRASKA TODAY...FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
300-308K LAYER LIFTS THE MOIST AIR INTO A LAYER OF FOLDED THETA-E
(306-315K). THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT...RAIN SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 20MM...THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW WILL BE ONLY
ABOUT THREE HOURS THUS LIMITING TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO 0.20
INCH OR LESS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS WHERE THE HIGHEST UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED. IN THE
SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE
EVEN 0.10 INCH. WITH THE BEST FORCING MOVING THROUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE WILL CAUSE CLEARING SKY THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER SUNDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UP UNTIL THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AS A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEP MIXING TRANSPORTS
WARM AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE POSSIBLE
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH MID
40S POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...NOTE A FEW LOWER 50S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH WILL PULL A HYBRID CANADIAN/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE LONG
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE WAFFLING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME.  THE COLD
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS FALLING FROM THE LOWER
40S MONDAY MORNING BACK BELOW 32F TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT AS WAS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUGGESTED TO BE LIGHT.
ATTM...THE BEST SHOT AT QPF SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS. AS OF 12 PM CDT...AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HWY 83 HAVE RETURNED TO VFR. PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND REMNANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS APPEAR TO BE SOUTH AND EAST
OF KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...DS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 221722
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1222 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH A FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. IT ALSO SHOWED A PLUME OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH NEBRASKA TODAY...FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
300-308K LAYER LIFTS THE MOIST AIR INTO A LAYER OF FOLDED THETA-E
(306-315K). THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT...RAIN SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 20MM...THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW WILL BE ONLY
ABOUT THREE HOURS THUS LIMITING TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO 0.20
INCH OR LESS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS WHERE THE HIGHEST UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED. IN THE
SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE
EVEN 0.10 INCH. WITH THE BEST FORCING MOVING THROUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE WILL CAUSE CLEARING SKY THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER SUNDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UP UNTIL THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AS A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEP MIXING TRANSPORTS
WARM AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE POSSIBLE
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH MID
40S POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...NOTE A FEW LOWER 50S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH WILL PULL A HYBRID CANADIAN/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE LONG
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE WAFFLING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME.  THE COLD
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS FALLING FROM THE LOWER
40S MONDAY MORNING BACK BELOW 32F TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT AS WAS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUGGESTED TO BE LIGHT.
ATTM...THE BEST SHOT AT QPF SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS. AS OF 12 PM CDT...AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HWY 83 HAVE RETURNED TO VFR. PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND REMNANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS APPEAR TO BE SOUTH AND EAST
OF KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...DS









000
FXUS63 KGID 221158
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
658 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BY FAR THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE
FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST BRIEF MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST-
TO-EAST MAINLY FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING. WHILE THE
ENTIRE CWA STANDS AT LEAST A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...THE HIGHEST 70-80 PERCENT CHANCES CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
APPEAR TO FOCUS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF REALIZING A GENERAL
0.25-0.50 INCH AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXISTS. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS
LIKELY IN MOST AREAS...WANT TO EMPHASIZE TWO MAIN POINTS HERE FOR
THE PUBLIC MESSAGE: 1) THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN ALL DAY/ALL EVENING
RAIN- OUT...AS ANY GIVEN LOCATION SHOULD ROUGHLY OBSERVE ONLY A
2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. 2) FOLLOWING IN LINE
WITH POINT 1 ABOUT THIS NOT BEING AN ALL DAY EVENT...FOLKS FROM
THE TRI- CITIES EASTWARD PROBABLY WONT SEE A SINGLE DROP UNTIL
GENERALLY THE NOON-2PM TIME FRAME...AND THOSE COUNTIES IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA ALONG HIGHWAY 81 MAY VERY WELL BE WAITING ON RAIN
UNTIL AT LEAST THE 2-4 PM TIME FRAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES OUT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SECONDARY SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES
WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST PATCHY/POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG MIGHT
FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ITS WAKE.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...ALL HAS BEEN
QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS THE NEAREST RAIN STILL REMAINS
WELL OUT WEST IN THE PANHANDLE. FURTHERMORE...AS SUSPECTED HERE 24
HOURS AGO...DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS EVIDENCED BY FAIRLY
STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY IN THE 7-13 MPH RANGE HAS
APPARENTLY THWARTED ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST (MEANING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 2-3 MILES)...AND THUS THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PULLED. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...EVEN A
LOWER STRATUS DECK HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH ANY LIMITED SKY COVER AT THIS POINT CONSISTING OF ONLY
THE MID-HIGH VARIETY. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES REGION HIGH AND A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
CO IS DRIVING THE STEADY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BREEZES...WHICH ARE
WORKING TO KEEP TEMPS NOTICEABLY MILDER AND MORE UNIFORM THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 53-57 RANGE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT CHANGES
ARE UNDERWAY AS A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES DEPARTING EAST OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SMALL-SCALE
DISTURBANCES ARE STARTING TO ENTER THE FAR WESTERN NEB/KS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY PARENT
VORT MAX TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MT/CANADA
BORDER AREA.

FORECAST WISE...AND STARTING WITH THE INITIAL FEW HOURS THROUGH
14Z/9AM...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE VERY EASTERN EDGES OF A FEW SHOWERS COULD
BE IMPINGING ON THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. IN THE
MEANTIME...ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE IS MONITORING WHETHER OR NOT ANY
AT LEAST LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW STRATUS TRY TO FORM.

GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND AS TOUCHED ON AT
THE TOP...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
CWA FROM WEST-TO-EAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THIS IS A FAIRLY
CLASSIC...MODESTLY-STRONGLY FORCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE
ENTIRE BROAD TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PASS
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HELPING
TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING LINE OF SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND ACTUALLY INCREASED THESE WIND SPEEDS
SOMEWHAT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 15+ MPH AND GUSTS AT
LEAST 20-25 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
THEY TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE. AS ALSO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THINK THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REALIZE RAIN TOTALS NO MORE THAN
0.25-0.50 INCH...ALTHOUGH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY
PUSH A FEW SPOTS MAYBE EVEN CLOSER TO 1 INCH...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE A CONSIDERABLE EXCEPTION TO THE NORM. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...WHILE CERTAINLY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...THE PRESENCE OF MAYBE UP TO 400-600 J/KG OF MIXED-
LAYER CAPE PER THE 06Z NAM COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT A FEW CORES WITH
SMALL HAIL ESPECIALLY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TEMP-WISE...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT OVERLY-HIGH GIVEN THE VARIOUS OFFSETTING FACTORS INCLUDING
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT A RELATIVELY MILD START. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED THOUGH...OPTED TO NUDGE HIGHS UP 1-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST PLACES...GENERALLY AIMING FOR UPPER 60S-
LOW 70S WEST TO MAINLY MID 70S EAST.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...PER THE PREFERRED LOOK OF
VARIOUS HIGHER-RES MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW...BY 00Z/7PM THE VAST MAJORITY OF ONGOING
PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR/EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WITH MOST PLACES FARTHER WEST ALREADY DRYING OUT. AS
THE LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS
DEPARTURE...THE NARROW ZONE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
GRADUALLY DEPART AS WELL...AND BY 03Z/10PM...ONLY PLACES GENERALLY
EAST OF AN OSCEOLA-SUPERIOR-OSBORNE KS LINE CONTINUE TO CARRY A
20+ PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND HAVE ALL MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
WHATSOEVER OUT OF EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY 08Z/2AM...AND EVEN
THIS MAY BE GENEROUSLY LONG. IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING PRECIP...THE
MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...WITH THE LATEST NAM12 VISIBILITY PRODUCT
ACTUALLY SUGGESTING THAT FAIRLY LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD
MATERIALIZE. ALTHOUGH NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR FOG FORMATION BY ANY
MEANS (IT RARELY IS)...FELT THE FAVORABLE FACTORS OF CLEARING
SKIES OVER WET GROUND IN THE PRESENCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES LESS THAN 5 MPH WAS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GENERIC PATCHY FOG
MENTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO GET THE BALL ROLLING IN
CASE IT ULTIMATELY AMOUNTS TO SOMETHING IMPACTFUL. ONE POSSIBLE
FOG-MITIGATING FACTOR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LATE-NIGHT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 06Z NAM...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT OVERNIGHT SKIES TO AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUD BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRIMARY WAVE. MADE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...BLENDING VARIOUS
GUIDANCE/MODELS TO YIELD A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 FAR NORTHWEST TO LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S...WHILE HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE AT LEAST INTO THE 70S WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME LOWER 80S AROUND
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH JUST A LOW END CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY ALONG AND BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK VORT MAX ON
THURSDAY THAT WILL BE TRAILING THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT WILL
HAVE PASSED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SECONDARY
VORT MAX ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE LESS FORCING AND LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AND A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DRY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM DOES TRY TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
VERY WEAK RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FEATURE/SUBTLE TROUGH. AM NOT BUYING INTO THE
NAM POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS VERY HIGH AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY
LOCATED OVER THE AREA BY THAT POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ADDING TO THE NICE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST MODEL RUNS
HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN FROM 24HRS AGO...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY ON SUNDAY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST HIGHS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING OF THAT
FRONT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE TRACKED ACROSS...OR WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MEAN THAT
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH KANSAS ZONES MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER. THERE WILL BE
SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A GREAT CHANCE AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND AMOUNTS ALSO DO NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR VERY SIGNIFICANT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COOL DRY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...BOTH VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE
ADVERTISED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TWO
CAVEATS WORTH MENTIONING. FOR ONE...A GENERALLY 2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY BRING AN MVFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY TO THE AREA. THEN DURING THE LATTER ONE-FOURTH
OF THE PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS AT
LEAST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN
PLENTY OF MIXED MESSAGES REGARDING ITS LIKELIHOOD/EXTEND...WILL
ONLY HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY FOR NOW WITH A LOW-END VFR
VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD MENTION. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SAME TIMING OF RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST BY CONFINING IT ALL TO THE 17Z-22Z TIME FRAME...BUT HAVE
INTRODUCED A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION WITH THE
PREVAILING SHOWERS. BACKING UP TO THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS THE OVERALL BULK SHEAR DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1200 FT AGL CONTINUES TO AVERAGE
AROUND 30KT THANKS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES THIS MORNING AROUND 12KT SHOULD PICK UP A LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST
20KT BEFORE VEERING MORE WESTERLY AND DIMINISHING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...LIGHT AND
GENERALLY VARIABLE BREEZES WILL BE IN THE PLACE...POTENTIALLY
PROVING FAVORABLE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 221110
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH A FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. IT ALSO SHOWED A PLUME OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH NEBRASKA TODAY...FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
300-308K LAYER LIFTS THE MOIST AIR INTO A LAYER OF FOLDED THETA-E
(306-315K). THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT...RAIN SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 20MM...THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW WILL BE ONLY
ABOUT THREE HOURS THUS LIMITING TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO 0.20
INCH OR LESS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS WHERE THE HIGHEST UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED. IN THE
SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE
EVEN 0.10 INCH. WITH THE BEST FORCING MOVING THROUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE WILL CAUSE CLEARING SKY THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER SUNDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UP UNTIL THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AS A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEP MIXING TRANSPORTS
WARM AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE POSSIBLE
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH MID
40S POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...NOTE A FEW LOWER 50S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH WILL PULL A HYBRID CANADIAN/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE LONG
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE WAFFLING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME.  THE COLD
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS FALLING FROM THE LOWER
40S MONDAY MORNING BACK BELOW 32F TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT AS WAS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUGGESTED TO BE LIGHT.
ATTM...THE BEST SHOT AT QPF SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

EXCEPT FOR WHEN RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA CEILINGS WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. IN THE BAND OF RAIN...CEILINGS OF 3000-4000 FEET
ARE LIKELY. VISIBILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3SM MOST AREAS THOUGH
SOME 2SM IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. AFTER 00Z...CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BECOME UNLIMITED.
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
BE LESS THAN 15KT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 221110
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA
AT 07Z WITH RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. SHORT RANGE MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 18Z EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH POPS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING OVER EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH CLEARING FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE FRONT. FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN MOVE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. GFS GIVES THE AREA HIGHER
POPS AS IT STALLS FRONT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE EURO MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WITH LOWER POPS DURING THIS TIME. CONTINUED TO STAY GUIDANCE AT
THIS POINT AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL PCPN MOVES IN THIS AFTN
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA AND/OR TSRA AS THEY AFFECT
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG APPEAR POSSIBLE AFTER THE PCPN MOVES OUT...WITH LIGHT WINDS.
IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH THAT FOR NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 221110
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH A FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. IT ALSO SHOWED A PLUME OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH NEBRASKA TODAY...FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
300-308K LAYER LIFTS THE MOIST AIR INTO A LAYER OF FOLDED THETA-E
(306-315K). THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT...RAIN SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 20MM...THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW WILL BE ONLY
ABOUT THREE HOURS THUS LIMITING TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO 0.20
INCH OR LESS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS WHERE THE HIGHEST UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED. IN THE
SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE
EVEN 0.10 INCH. WITH THE BEST FORCING MOVING THROUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE WILL CAUSE CLEARING SKY THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER SUNDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UP UNTIL THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AS A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEP MIXING TRANSPORTS
WARM AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE POSSIBLE
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH MID
40S POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...NOTE A FEW LOWER 50S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH WILL PULL A HYBRID CANADIAN/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE LONG
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE WAFFLING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME.  THE COLD
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS FALLING FROM THE LOWER
40S MONDAY MORNING BACK BELOW 32F TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT AS WAS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUGGESTED TO BE LIGHT.
ATTM...THE BEST SHOT AT QPF SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

EXCEPT FOR WHEN RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA CEILINGS WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. IN THE BAND OF RAIN...CEILINGS OF 3000-4000 FEET
ARE LIKELY. VISIBILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3SM MOST AREAS THOUGH
SOME 2SM IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. AFTER 00Z...CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BECOME UNLIMITED.
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
BE LESS THAN 15KT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 221110
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA
AT 07Z WITH RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. SHORT RANGE MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 18Z EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH POPS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING OVER EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH CLEARING FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE FRONT. FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN MOVE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. GFS GIVES THE AREA HIGHER
POPS AS IT STALLS FRONT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE EURO MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WITH LOWER POPS DURING THIS TIME. CONTINUED TO STAY GUIDANCE AT
THIS POINT AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL PCPN MOVES IN THIS AFTN
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA AND/OR TSRA AS THEY AFFECT
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG APPEAR POSSIBLE AFTER THE PCPN MOVES OUT...WITH LIGHT WINDS.
IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH THAT FOR NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KGID 220938
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BY FAR THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE
FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST BRIEF MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST-
TO-EAST MAINLY FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING. WHILE THE
ENTIRE CWA STANDS AT LEAST A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...THE HIGHEST 70-80 PERCENT CHANCES CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
APPEAR TO FOCUS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF REALIZING A GENERAL
0.25-0.50 INCH AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXISTS. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS
LIKELY IN MOST AREAS...WANT TO EMPHASIZE TWO MAIN POINTS HERE FOR
THE PUBLIC MESSAGE: 1) THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN ALL DAY/ALL EVENING
RAIN- OUT...AS ANY GIVEN LOCATION SHOULD ROUGHLY OBSERVE ONLY A
2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. 2) FOLLOWING IN LINE
WITH POINT 1 ABOUT THIS NOT BEING AN ALL DAY EVENT...FOLKS FROM
THE TRI- CITIES EASTWARD PROBABLY WONT SEE A SINGLE DROP UNTIL
GENERALLY THE NOON-2PM TIME FRAME...AND THOSE COUNTIES IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA ALONG HIGHWAY 81 MAY VERY WELL BE WAITING ON RAIN
UNTIL AT LEAST THE 2-4 PM TIME FRAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES OUT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SECONDARY SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES
WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST PATCHY/POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG MIGHT
FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ITS WAKE.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...ALL HAS BEEN
QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS THE NEAREST RAIN STILL REMAINS
WELL OUT WEST IN THE PANHANDLE. FURTHERMORE...AS SUSPECTED HERE 24
HOURS AGO...DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS EVIDENCED BY FAIRLY
STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY IN THE 7-13 MPH RANGE HAS
APPARENTLY THWARTED ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST (MEANING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 2-3 MILES)...AND THUS THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PULLED. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...EVEN A
LOWER STRATUS DECK HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH ANY LIMITED SKY COVER AT THIS POINT CONSISTING OF ONLY
THE MID-HIGH VARIETY. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES REGION HIGH AND A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
CO IS DRIVING THE STEADY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BREEZES...WHICH ARE
WORKING TO KEEP TEMPS NOTICEABLY MILDER AND MORE UNIFORM THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 53-57 RANGE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT CHANGES
ARE UNDERWAY AS A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES DEPARTING EAST OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SMALL-SCALE
DISTURBANCES ARE STARTING TO ENTER THE FAR WESTERN NEB/KS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY PARENT
VORT MAX TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MT/CANADA
BORDER AREA.

FORECAST WISE...AND STARTING WITH THE INITIAL FEW HOURS THROUGH
14Z/9AM...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE VERY EASTERN EDGES OF A FEW SHOWERS COULD
BE IMPINGING ON THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. IN THE
MEANTIME...ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE IS MONITORING WHETHER OR NOT ANY
AT LEAST LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW STRATUS TRY TO FORM.

GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND AS TOUCHED ON AT
THE TOP...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
CWA FROM WEST-TO-EAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THIS IS A FAIRLY
CLASSIC...MODESTLY-STRONGLY FORCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE
ENTIRE BROAD TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PASS
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HELPING
TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING LINE OF SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND ACTUALLY INCREASED THESE WIND SPEEDS
SOMEWHAT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 15+ MPH AND GUSTS AT
LEAST 20-25 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
THEY TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE. AS ALSO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THINK THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REALIZE RAIN TOTALS NO MORE THAN
0.25-0.50 INCH...ALTHOUGH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY
PUSH A FEW SPOTS MAYBE EVEN CLOSER TO 1 INCH...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE A CONSIDERABLE EXCEPTION TO THE NORM. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...WHILE CERTAINLY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...THE PRESENCE OF MAYBE UP TO 400-600 J/KG OF MIXED-
LAYER CAPE PER THE 06Z NAM COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT A FEW CORES WITH
SMALL HAIL ESPECIALLY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TEMP-WISE...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT OVERLY-HIGH GIVEN THE VARIOUS OFFSETTING FACTORS INCLUDING
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT A RELATIVELY MILD START. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED THOUGH...OPTED TO NUDGE HIGHS UP 1-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST PLACES...GENERALLY AIMING FOR UPPER 60S-
LOW 70S WEST TO MAINLY MID 70S EAST.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...PER THE PREFERRED LOOK OF
VARIOUS HIGHER-RES MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW...BY 00Z/7PM THE VAST MAJORITY OF ONGOING
PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR/EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WITH MOST PLACES FARTHER WEST ALREADY DRYING OUT. AS
THE LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS
DEPARTURE...THE NARROW ZONE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
GRADUALLY DEPART AS WELL...AND BY 03Z/10PM...ONLY PLACES GENERALLY
EAST OF AN OSCEOLA-SUPERIOR-OSBORNE KS LINE CONTINUE TO CARRY A
20+ PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND HAVE ALL MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
WHATSOEVER OUT OF EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY 08Z/2AM...AND EVEN
THIS MAY BE GENEROUSLY LONG. IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING PRECIP...THE
MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...WITH THE LATEST NAM12 VISIBILITY PRODUCT
ACTUALLY SUGGESTING THAT FAIRLY LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD
MATERIALIZE. ALTHOUGH NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR FOG FORMATION BY ANY
MEANS (IT RARELY IS)...FELT THE FAVORABLE FACTORS OF CLEARING
SKIES OVER WET GROUND IN THE PRESENCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES LESS THAN 5 MPH WAS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GENERIC PATCHY FOG
MENTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO GET THE BALL ROLLING IN
CASE IT ULTIMATELY AMOUNTS TO SOMETHING IMPACTFUL. ONE POSSIBLE
FOG-MITIGATING FACTOR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LATE-NIGHT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 06Z NAM...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT OVERNIGHT SKIES TO AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUD BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRIMARY WAVE. MADE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...BLENDING VARIOUS
GUIDANCE/MODELS TO YIELD A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 FAR NORTHWEST TO LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S...WHILE HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE AT LEAST INTO THE 70S WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME LOWER 80S AROUND
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH JUST A LOW END CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY ALONG AND BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK VORT MAX ON
THURSDAY THAT WILL BE TRAILING THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT WILL
HAVE PASSED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SECONDARY
VORT MAX ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE LESS FORCING AND LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AND A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DRY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM DOES TRY TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
VERY WEAK RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FEATURE/SUBTLE TROUGH. AM NOT BUYING INTO THE
NAM POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS VERY HIGH AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY
LOCATED OVER THE AREA BY THAT POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ADDING TO THE NICE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST MODEL RUNS
HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN FROM 24HRS AGO...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY ON SUNDAY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST HIGHS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING OF THAT
FRONT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE TRACKED ACROSS...OR WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MEAN THAT
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH KANSAS ZONES MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER. THERE WILL BE
SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A GREAT CHANCE AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND AMOUNTS ALSO DO NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR VERY SIGNIFICANT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COOL DRY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...BOTH VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE
TO BE ADVERTISED THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN
CAVEAT BEING AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF AN MVFR STRATUS
DECK MATERIALIZING SOMETIME AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE LINE OF
SHOWERS/MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEAKING OF THIS
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCES ALREADY HAD A
PREVAILING RAIN GROUP GOING...SO MAINTAINED THIS BUT ATTEMPTED TO
REFINE TIMING BY DELAYING THE ONSET A BIT AND CONFINING ALL
SHOWER POTENTIAL INTO THE 17-22Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS...OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME.
BACKING UP TO THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACTUALLY
EXTENDED IT THROUGH 15Z...AS THE OVERALL BULK SHEAR DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1200 FT AGL IS AVERAGING 30-35KT
THANKS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BREEZES EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 12KT SHOULD PICK UP A BIT LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING MORE WESTERLY AND
DIMINISHING BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES SHOULD BE IN PLACE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 220938
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BY FAR THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE
FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST BRIEF MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST-
TO-EAST MAINLY FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING. WHILE THE
ENTIRE CWA STANDS AT LEAST A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...THE HIGHEST 70-80 PERCENT CHANCES CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
APPEAR TO FOCUS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF REALIZING A GENERAL
0.25-0.50 INCH AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXISTS. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS
LIKELY IN MOST AREAS...WANT TO EMPHASIZE TWO MAIN POINTS HERE FOR
THE PUBLIC MESSAGE: 1) THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN ALL DAY/ALL EVENING
RAIN- OUT...AS ANY GIVEN LOCATION SHOULD ROUGHLY OBSERVE ONLY A
2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. 2) FOLLOWING IN LINE
WITH POINT 1 ABOUT THIS NOT BEING AN ALL DAY EVENT...FOLKS FROM
THE TRI- CITIES EASTWARD PROBABLY WONT SEE A SINGLE DROP UNTIL
GENERALLY THE NOON-2PM TIME FRAME...AND THOSE COUNTIES IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA ALONG HIGHWAY 81 MAY VERY WELL BE WAITING ON RAIN
UNTIL AT LEAST THE 2-4 PM TIME FRAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES OUT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SECONDARY SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES
WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST PATCHY/POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG MIGHT
FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ITS WAKE.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...ALL HAS BEEN
QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS THE NEAREST RAIN STILL REMAINS
WELL OUT WEST IN THE PANHANDLE. FURTHERMORE...AS SUSPECTED HERE 24
HOURS AGO...DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS EVIDENCED BY FAIRLY
STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY IN THE 7-13 MPH RANGE HAS
APPARENTLY THWARTED ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST (MEANING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 2-3 MILES)...AND THUS THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PULLED. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...EVEN A
LOWER STRATUS DECK HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH ANY LIMITED SKY COVER AT THIS POINT CONSISTING OF ONLY
THE MID-HIGH VARIETY. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES REGION HIGH AND A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
CO IS DRIVING THE STEADY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BREEZES...WHICH ARE
WORKING TO KEEP TEMPS NOTICEABLY MILDER AND MORE UNIFORM THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 53-57 RANGE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT CHANGES
ARE UNDERWAY AS A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES DEPARTING EAST OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SMALL-SCALE
DISTURBANCES ARE STARTING TO ENTER THE FAR WESTERN NEB/KS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY PARENT
VORT MAX TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MT/CANADA
BORDER AREA.

FORECAST WISE...AND STARTING WITH THE INITIAL FEW HOURS THROUGH
14Z/9AM...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE VERY EASTERN EDGES OF A FEW SHOWERS COULD
BE IMPINGING ON THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. IN THE
MEANTIME...ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE IS MONITORING WHETHER OR NOT ANY
AT LEAST LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW STRATUS TRY TO FORM.

GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND AS TOUCHED ON AT
THE TOP...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
CWA FROM WEST-TO-EAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THIS IS A FAIRLY
CLASSIC...MODESTLY-STRONGLY FORCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE
ENTIRE BROAD TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PASS
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HELPING
TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING LINE OF SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND ACTUALLY INCREASED THESE WIND SPEEDS
SOMEWHAT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 15+ MPH AND GUSTS AT
LEAST 20-25 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
THEY TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE. AS ALSO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THINK THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REALIZE RAIN TOTALS NO MORE THAN
0.25-0.50 INCH...ALTHOUGH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY
PUSH A FEW SPOTS MAYBE EVEN CLOSER TO 1 INCH...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE A CONSIDERABLE EXCEPTION TO THE NORM. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...WHILE CERTAINLY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...THE PRESENCE OF MAYBE UP TO 400-600 J/KG OF MIXED-
LAYER CAPE PER THE 06Z NAM COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT A FEW CORES WITH
SMALL HAIL ESPECIALLY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TEMP-WISE...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT OVERLY-HIGH GIVEN THE VARIOUS OFFSETTING FACTORS INCLUDING
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT A RELATIVELY MILD START. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED THOUGH...OPTED TO NUDGE HIGHS UP 1-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST PLACES...GENERALLY AIMING FOR UPPER 60S-
LOW 70S WEST TO MAINLY MID 70S EAST.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...PER THE PREFERRED LOOK OF
VARIOUS HIGHER-RES MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW...BY 00Z/7PM THE VAST MAJORITY OF ONGOING
PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR/EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WITH MOST PLACES FARTHER WEST ALREADY DRYING OUT. AS
THE LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS
DEPARTURE...THE NARROW ZONE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
GRADUALLY DEPART AS WELL...AND BY 03Z/10PM...ONLY PLACES GENERALLY
EAST OF AN OSCEOLA-SUPERIOR-OSBORNE KS LINE CONTINUE TO CARRY A
20+ PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND HAVE ALL MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
WHATSOEVER OUT OF EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY 08Z/2AM...AND EVEN
THIS MAY BE GENEROUSLY LONG. IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING PRECIP...THE
MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...WITH THE LATEST NAM12 VISIBILITY PRODUCT
ACTUALLY SUGGESTING THAT FAIRLY LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD
MATERIALIZE. ALTHOUGH NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR FOG FORMATION BY ANY
MEANS (IT RARELY IS)...FELT THE FAVORABLE FACTORS OF CLEARING
SKIES OVER WET GROUND IN THE PRESENCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES LESS THAN 5 MPH WAS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GENERIC PATCHY FOG
MENTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO GET THE BALL ROLLING IN
CASE IT ULTIMATELY AMOUNTS TO SOMETHING IMPACTFUL. ONE POSSIBLE
FOG-MITIGATING FACTOR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LATE-NIGHT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 06Z NAM...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT OVERNIGHT SKIES TO AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUD BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRIMARY WAVE. MADE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...BLENDING VARIOUS
GUIDANCE/MODELS TO YIELD A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 FAR NORTHWEST TO LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S...WHILE HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE AT LEAST INTO THE 70S WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME LOWER 80S AROUND
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH JUST A LOW END CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY ALONG AND BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK VORT MAX ON
THURSDAY THAT WILL BE TRAILING THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT WILL
HAVE PASSED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SECONDARY
VORT MAX ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE LESS FORCING AND LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AND A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DRY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM DOES TRY TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
VERY WEAK RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FEATURE/SUBTLE TROUGH. AM NOT BUYING INTO THE
NAM POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS VERY HIGH AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY
LOCATED OVER THE AREA BY THAT POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ADDING TO THE NICE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST MODEL RUNS
HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN FROM 24HRS AGO...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY ON SUNDAY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST HIGHS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING OF THAT
FRONT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE TRACKED ACROSS...OR WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MEAN THAT
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH KANSAS ZONES MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER. THERE WILL BE
SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A GREAT CHANCE AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND AMOUNTS ALSO DO NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR VERY SIGNIFICANT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COOL DRY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...BOTH VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE
TO BE ADVERTISED THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN
CAVEAT BEING AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF AN MVFR STRATUS
DECK MATERIALIZING SOMETIME AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE LINE OF
SHOWERS/MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEAKING OF THIS
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCES ALREADY HAD A
PREVAILING RAIN GROUP GOING...SO MAINTAINED THIS BUT ATTEMPTED TO
REFINE TIMING BY DELAYING THE ONSET A BIT AND CONFINING ALL
SHOWER POTENTIAL INTO THE 17-22Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS...OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME.
BACKING UP TO THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACTUALLY
EXTENDED IT THROUGH 15Z...AS THE OVERALL BULK SHEAR DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1200 FT AGL IS AVERAGING 30-35KT
THANKS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BREEZES EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 12KT SHOULD PICK UP A BIT LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING MORE WESTERLY AND
DIMINISHING BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES SHOULD BE IN PLACE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 220749
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH A FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. IT ALSO SHOWED A PLUME OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH NEBRASKA TODAY...FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
300-308K LAYER LIFTS THE MOIST AIR INTO A LAYER OF FOLDED THETA-E
(306-315K). THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT...RAIN SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 20MM...THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW WILL BE ONLY
ABOUT THREE HOURS THUS LIMITING TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO 0.20
INCH OR LESS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS WHERE THE HIGHEST UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED. IN THE
SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE
EVEN 0.10 INCH. WITH THE BEST FORCING MOVING THROUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE WILL CAUSE CLEARING SKY THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER SUNDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UP UNTIL THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AS A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEP MIXING TRANSPORTS
WARM AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE POSSIBLE
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH MID
40S POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...NOTE A FEW LOWER 50S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH WILL PULL A HYBRID CANADIAN/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE LONG
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE WAFFLING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME.  THE COLD
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS FALLING FROM THE LOWER
40S MONDAY MORNING BACK BELOW 32F TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT AS WAS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUGGESTED TO BE LIGHT.
ATTM...THE BEST SHOT AT QPF SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OUT OF WYOMING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA AND
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. FROPA EXPECTED AT KVTN KLBF
AROUND 22/15Z. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF TRW AT KVTN WITH EVENT
LOOKING MORE LIKE SHOWERS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND FROPA AT KVTN. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KOAX 220745
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA
AT 07Z WITH RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. SHORT RANGE MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 18Z EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH POPS INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING OVER EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH CLEARING FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE FRONT. FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN MOVE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND
TIMNG OF THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. GFS GIVES THE AREA HIGHER
POPS AS IT STALLS FRONT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE EURO MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN TAKING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WITH LOWER POPS DURING THIS TIME. CONTINUED TO STAY GUIDANCE AT
THIS POINT AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
BROKEN DECK AROUND 4-6K FEET AGL LIKELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KOFK
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT INTO
KOMA AND KLNK BY 00Z/THU. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KGID 220622
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
122 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...

AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...HAVE INHERITED PATCHY FOG WORDING
FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS...BUT
THIS TIME FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. ALSO AS WAS THE CASE 24 HOURS
AGO...CONFIDENCE IN REALIZING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WORTHY OF
INCLUSION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST (GENERALLY MEANING LESS THAN
2-3 MILES) IS WANING WITH TIME...AS STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES
WOULD APPEAR TO BE WORKING AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND ITS EVEN
BECOMING QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY APPRECIABLE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS
WILL BE ABLE TO FORM. AT ANY RATE...AT THE RISK OF DROPPING PATCHY
FOG MENTION TOO EARLY AND GETTING CAUGHT OFF GUARD LATER...HAVE
MAINTAINED THIS MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST BUT DELAYED ANY
ONSET UNTIL AFTER 09Z/4AM...AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS
CLOSER TO MAIN FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME IN A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO OTHER WEATHER
ELEMENTS...AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS
CWA-WIDE THROUGH SUNRISE AND LIKELY AT LEAST SHORTLY BEYOND. LOW
TEMPS THIS MORNING CURRENTLY APPEAR ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
52-56 RANGE MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UNSEASONABLY MILD FALL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
TODAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES.  IN STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS...MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE WITH DPS RISING INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.  IN FULL INSOLATION...TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WITH
THE INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE.  SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES AND SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  NAM
VSBY PROGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA AND SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK
WHEREAS SREF INDICATES THE LOWER VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281.  THIS BEING SAID WITH MODELS SUGGESTING STRATUS/FOG
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL AND WENT AHEAD WITH PATCHY FOG
WORDING.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STEADY THRU THE NIGHT...GENERALLY
AOA 10KTS AND EXPECT THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR TRENDS OF THIS.

THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 40KTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE NOSE OF
THE JET AXIS FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
PCPN DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY EDGE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA
MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MID/LATE MORNING IN PRESENCE OF STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH
PCPN BAND ORIENTED N/S. INSTABILITY IS ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND ONE INCH AND IN
GENERAL SOME QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...AND THIS IS OUR BEST CHC FOR RAIN FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL
DAYS.  HAVE SCALED BACK WEDNESDAY TEMPS DUE TO PCPN AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.  READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S NW/SE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REVOLVES AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BOTH ENDS OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY EAST...BRINGING A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...BUT ITS A WEAK FRONT SO NOT
LOOKING AT A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEEDS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LINE OF
MAINLY SHOWERS /A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE/ SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA...AND LOOKS TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WAS TO ADD MORE TIMING DETAILS...HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM 00-03Z...QUICKLY DROPPING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM 03-09Z...WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT FOR 09-12ZZ.

KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...BY
EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE WI/IL
AREA...CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST BEFORE BECOMING MORE PHASED INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE NERN CONUS AS WE
GET INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BY THE END
OF THE DAY THURSDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MORE
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...AS RIDGING IS TRYING TO BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT
SW/MEXICO AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WELL OF THE WEST COAST. THIS
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY AND SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST...WITH THE AXIS BEING CENTERED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST A DRY
ONE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE WEST COAST...INTO THE ROCKIES AND
EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STARTING TO TURN MORE SWRLY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO WORK THEIR WAY IN ON MONDAY...BUT
AS IS COMMON THIS FAR OUT...THERE ARE SOME TIMING/LOCATION
DIFFERENCES /THOUGH AT THIS TIME THEY ARE FAIRLY MINOR/ BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE INITIAL ONSET AND EVOLUTION. AT THIS TIME...KEPT
POPS CONFINED TO THE 12-00Z MONDAY PERIOD...BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SOME POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE MON EVENING/OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND.  BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE TUESDAY
DRY AT THIS POINT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...STILL
LOOKING AT A NICE PERIOD OF HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR /ROUGHLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S/...BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES IN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND...LOOKING AT A WARMING
TREND...WITH THURS HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S AND MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR FRI/SAT.  SUNDAYS NOT BAD EITHER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S...BEFORE THAT NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRINGS HIGHS BACK NEAR
AVERAGE IN THE NEAR 60 TO MID 60S RANGE FOR MON/TUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...BOTH VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE
TO BE ADVERTISED THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN
CAVEAT BEING AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF AN MVFR STRATUS
DECK MATERIALIZING SOMETIME AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE LINE OF
SHOWERS/MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEAKING OF THIS
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCES ALREADY HAD A
PREVAILING RAIN GROUP GOING...SO MAINTAINED THIS BUT ATTEMPTED TO
REFINE TIMING BY DELAYING THE ONSET A BIT AND CONFINING ALL
SHOWER POTENTIAL INTO THE 17-22Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS...OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME.
BACKING UP TO THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACTUALLY
EXTENDED IT THROUGH 15Z...AS THE OVERALL BULK SHEAR DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1200 FT AGL IS AVERAGING 30-35KT
THANKS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BREEZES EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 12KT SHOULD PICK UP A BIT LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING MORE WESTERLY AND
DIMINISHING BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES SHOULD BE IN PLACE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 220512
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1212 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
BE THE FORECAST FOCUS AS WE SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WITH THE
PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE...AS DEW
PT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SW INTO CENTRAL NEB.
WILL HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE FOR FOG AS TEMPS COOL OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL ON FOG...HOWEVER DID SEE SOME
ACROSS WESTERN KS LAST NIGHT WHICH CREPT INTO FAR SW NEB THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
EXPECT ANY FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. MEANWHILE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES INTO NW NEB...A BAND/BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT AROUND 100 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE POSITIVE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER...SO LOCALLY COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH SFC BASED CAPE
INCREASING DURING THE DAYTIME. ALSO SEEING NEG LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER.
SHEAR IS WEAK SO NOT EXPENDING ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RICH
BL MOISTURE KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...HOWEVER SOME CLEARING AND
BETTER MIXING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH HIGHS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH FOLLOWS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CNTL
CANADA WILL CIRCULATE WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS LIMITING VERTICAL MIXING TO
AROUND 800MB. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND MID
SINGLE DIGITS C.

TEMPERATURES AT AND BELOW 700MB WARM A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND DEEP
WESTERLY WIND FIELDS DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
CANADA DRAWS WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE
BEST GUESS ON HIGHS FRIDAY IS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE MEX INDICATE MID 80S AND THIS COULD VERY WELL VERIFY IF
DEEP MIXING TO 700MB IS ACHIEVED DURING THE BRIEF PEAK HEATING
PERIOD OF LATE FALL. THERE IS THE HINT OF SOME MORNING STRATUS IN
THE NAM EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHICH IS CUSTOMARY OF WEAK PACIFIC FRONTS
AND WINDS ARE WEAK AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE NAM SHOWS THIS MOISTURE BEING
SWEPT EAST BY AFTN AND HUMIDITY PLUMMETS TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT BY 21Z.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. H700MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 10C SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS
IN THE 80S. A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE
CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WHICH PRESUMABLY WOULD LIMIT MIXING TO 800 TO 750MB.

A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS ACTUALLY A LEAD WAVE FOR A DEEPER UPPER
LEVEL TROF PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACCORDING TO HPC AND THE ECM...1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

COOL WEATHER TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COLDEST
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OVERHEAD. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BUT NOTE THAT HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS TIME
OF YEAR OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OUT OF WYOMING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA AND
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. FROPA EXPECTED AT KVTN KLBF
AROUND 22/15Z. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF TRW AT KVTN WITH EVENT
LOOKING MORE LIKE SHOWERS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND FROPA AT KVTN. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 220512
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1212 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
BE THE FORECAST FOCUS AS WE SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WITH THE
PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE...AS DEW
PT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SW INTO CENTRAL NEB.
WILL HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE FOR FOG AS TEMPS COOL OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL ON FOG...HOWEVER DID SEE SOME
ACROSS WESTERN KS LAST NIGHT WHICH CREPT INTO FAR SW NEB THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
EXPECT ANY FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. MEANWHILE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES INTO NW NEB...A BAND/BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT AROUND 100 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE POSITIVE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER...SO LOCALLY COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH SFC BASED CAPE
INCREASING DURING THE DAYTIME. ALSO SEEING NEG LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER.
SHEAR IS WEAK SO NOT EXPENDING ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RICH
BL MOISTURE KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...HOWEVER SOME CLEARING AND
BETTER MIXING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH HIGHS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH FOLLOWS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CNTL
CANADA WILL CIRCULATE WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS LIMITING VERTICAL MIXING TO
AROUND 800MB. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND MID
SINGLE DIGITS C.

TEMPERATURES AT AND BELOW 700MB WARM A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND DEEP
WESTERLY WIND FIELDS DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
CANADA DRAWS WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE
BEST GUESS ON HIGHS FRIDAY IS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE MEX INDICATE MID 80S AND THIS COULD VERY WELL VERIFY IF
DEEP MIXING TO 700MB IS ACHIEVED DURING THE BRIEF PEAK HEATING
PERIOD OF LATE FALL. THERE IS THE HINT OF SOME MORNING STRATUS IN
THE NAM EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHICH IS CUSTOMARY OF WEAK PACIFIC FRONTS
AND WINDS ARE WEAK AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE NAM SHOWS THIS MOISTURE BEING
SWEPT EAST BY AFTN AND HUMIDITY PLUMMETS TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT BY 21Z.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. H700MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 10C SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS
IN THE 80S. A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE
CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WHICH PRESUMABLY WOULD LIMIT MIXING TO 800 TO 750MB.

A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS ACTUALLY A LEAD WAVE FOR A DEEPER UPPER
LEVEL TROF PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACCORDING TO HPC AND THE ECM...1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

COOL WEATHER TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COLDEST
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OVERHEAD. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BUT NOTE THAT HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS TIME
OF YEAR OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OUT OF WYOMING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA AND
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. FROPA EXPECTED AT KVTN KLBF
AROUND 22/15Z. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF TRW AT KVTN WITH EVENT
LOOKING MORE LIKE SHOWERS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND FROPA AT KVTN. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 220459
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1159 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THRU THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN STEADY...WITH LLVL
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THE LLVL JET
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 40KTS AND ORIENTS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. ALONG NOSE OF
THE JET AND IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER/SPRINKLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. FARTHER
WEST...A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT CLEAR CUT AND IS FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY MENTION ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PRECLUDE LOW VSBYS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP IN PRESENCE OF GOOD MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH BAND
OF PCPN ORIENTED N/S. INSTABILITY IS STILL LOOKING PRETTY
MEAGER...GENERALLY AROUND 300 J/KG AT BEST SO ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGE AROUND ONE INCH AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REVOLVES AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BOTH ENDS OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY EAST...BRINGING A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...BUT ITS A WEAK FRONT SO NOT
LOOKING AT A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEEDS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LINE OF
MAINLY SHOWERS /A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE/ SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA...AND LOOKS TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE HIGHER POPS REMAIN IN THE 00-
06Z TIME FRAME...WITH THINGS STARTING TO TREND DOWN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW QUICKLY
THINGS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA...AND KEPT SOME DECENT POPS GOING
ACROSS FAR SERN PORTIONS WELL INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE WITH THINGS DRYING OUT NEAR
SUNRISE...AND DECIDED TO PULL POPS POST 12Z THURSDAY.

KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...BY
EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE WI/IL
AREA...CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST BEFORE BECOMING MORE PHASED INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE NERN CONUS AS WE
GET INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BY THE END
OF THE DAY THURSDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MORE
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...AS RIDGING IS TRYING TO BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT
SW/MEXICO AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WELL OF THE WEST COAST. THIS
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY AND SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST...WITH THE AXIS BEING CENTERED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST A DRY
ONE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE WEST COAST...INTO THE ROCKIES AND
EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STARTING TO TURN MORE SWRLY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO WORK THEIR WAY IN ON MONDAY...BUT
AS IS COMMON THIS FAR OUT...THERE ARE SOME TIMING/LOCATION
DIFFERENCES /THOUGH AT THIS TIME THEY ARE FAIRLY MINOR/ BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE INITIAL ONSET AND EVOLUTION. AT THIS TIME...KEPT
POPS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 12-00Z MONDAY PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF THE CWA FOR THE MON
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE TUESDAY DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...STILL
LOOKING AT A NICE PERIOD OF HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR /ROUGHLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S/...BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES IN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND...LOOKING AT A WARMING
TREND...WITH THURS HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S AND MID/UPPER 70S FOR
FRI/SAT/SUN...BEFORE THAT NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRINGS HIGHS
BACK NEAR AVERAGE IN THE MID 50 TO MID 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR MON/TUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
BROKEN DECK AROUND 4-6K FEET AGL LIKELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KOFK
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT INTO
KOMA AND KLNK BY 00Z/THU. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 220459
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1159 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THRU THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN STEADY...WITH LLVL
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THE LLVL JET
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 40KTS AND ORIENTS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. ALONG NOSE OF
THE JET AND IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER/SPRINKLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. FARTHER
WEST...A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT CLEAR CUT AND IS FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY MENTION ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PRECLUDE LOW VSBYS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP IN PRESENCE OF GOOD MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH BAND
OF PCPN ORIENTED N/S. INSTABILITY IS STILL LOOKING PRETTY
MEAGER...GENERALLY AROUND 300 J/KG AT BEST SO ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGE AROUND ONE INCH AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REVOLVES AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BOTH ENDS OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY EAST...BRINGING A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...BUT ITS A WEAK FRONT SO NOT
LOOKING AT A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEEDS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LINE OF
MAINLY SHOWERS /A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE/ SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA...AND LOOKS TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE HIGHER POPS REMAIN IN THE 00-
06Z TIME FRAME...WITH THINGS STARTING TO TREND DOWN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW QUICKLY
THINGS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA...AND KEPT SOME DECENT POPS GOING
ACROSS FAR SERN PORTIONS WELL INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE WITH THINGS DRYING OUT NEAR
SUNRISE...AND DECIDED TO PULL POPS POST 12Z THURSDAY.

KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...BY
EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE WI/IL
AREA...CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST BEFORE BECOMING MORE PHASED INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE NERN CONUS AS WE
GET INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BY THE END
OF THE DAY THURSDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MORE
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...AS RIDGING IS TRYING TO BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT
SW/MEXICO AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WELL OF THE WEST COAST. THIS
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY AND SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST...WITH THE AXIS BEING CENTERED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST A DRY
ONE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE WEST COAST...INTO THE ROCKIES AND
EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STARTING TO TURN MORE SWRLY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO WORK THEIR WAY IN ON MONDAY...BUT
AS IS COMMON THIS FAR OUT...THERE ARE SOME TIMING/LOCATION
DIFFERENCES /THOUGH AT THIS TIME THEY ARE FAIRLY MINOR/ BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE INITIAL ONSET AND EVOLUTION. AT THIS TIME...KEPT
POPS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 12-00Z MONDAY PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF THE CWA FOR THE MON
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE TUESDAY DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...STILL
LOOKING AT A NICE PERIOD OF HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR /ROUGHLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S/...BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES IN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND...LOOKING AT A WARMING
TREND...WITH THURS HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S AND MID/UPPER 70S FOR
FRI/SAT/SUN...BEFORE THAT NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRINGS HIGHS
BACK NEAR AVERAGE IN THE MID 50 TO MID 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR MON/TUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
BROKEN DECK AROUND 4-6K FEET AGL LIKELY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THIS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KOFK
LATE WED AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT INTO
KOMA AND KLNK BY 00Z/THU. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KGID 220000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UNSEASONABLY MILD FALL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
TODAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES.  IN STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS...MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE WITH DPS RISING INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.  IN FULL INSOLATION...TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WITH
THE INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE.  SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES AND SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  NAM
VSBY PROGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA AND SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK
WHEREAS SREF INDICATES THE LOWER VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281.  THIS BEING SAID WITH MODELS SUGGESTING STRATUS/FOG
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL AND WENT AHEAD WITH PATCHY FOG
WORDING.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STEADY THRU THE NIGHT...GENERALLY
AOA 10KTS AND EXPECT THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR TRENDS OF THIS.

THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 40KTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE NOSE OF
THE JET AXIS FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
PCPN DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY EDGE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA
MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MID/LATE MORNING IN PRESENCE OF STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH
PCPN BAND ORIENTED N/S. INSTABILITY IS ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND ONE INCH AND IN
GENERAL SOME QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...AND THIS IS OUR BEST CHC FOR RAIN FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL
DAYS.  HAVE SCALED BACK WEDNESDAY TEMPS DUE TO PCPN AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.  READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S NW/SE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REVOLVES AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BOTH ENDS OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY EAST...BRINGING A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...BUT ITS A WEAK FRONT SO NOT
LOOKING AT A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEEDS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LINE OF
MAINLY SHOWERS /A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE/ SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA...AND LOOKS TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WAS TO ADD MORE TIMING DETAILS...HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM 00-03Z...QUICKLY DROPPING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM 03-09Z...WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT FOR 09-12ZZ.

KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...BY
EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE WI/IL
AREA...CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST BEFORE BECOMING MORE PHASED INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE NERN CONUS AS WE
GET INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BY THE END
OF THE DAY THURSDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MORE
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...AS RIDGING IS TRYING TO BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT
SW/MEXICO AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WELL OF THE WEST COAST. THIS
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY AND SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST...WITH THE AXIS BEING CENTERED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST A DRY
ONE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE WEST COAST...INTO THE ROCKIES AND
EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STARTING TO TURN MORE SWRLY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO WORK THEIR WAY IN ON MONDAY...BUT
AS IS COMMON THIS FAR OUT...THERE ARE SOME TIMING/LOCATION
DIFFERENCES /THOUGH AT THIS TIME THEY ARE FAIRLY MINOR/ BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE INITIAL ONSET AND EVOLUTION. AT THIS TIME...KEPT
POPS CONFINED TO THE 12-00Z MONDAY PERIOD...BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SOME POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE MON EVENING/OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND.  BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE TUESDAY
DRY AT THIS POINT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...STILL
LOOKING AT A NICE PERIOD OF HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR /ROUGHLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S/...BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES IN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND...LOOKING AT A WARMING
TREND...WITH THURS HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S AND MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR FRI/SAT.  SUNDAYS NOT BAD EITHER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S...BEFORE THAT NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRINGS HIGHS BACK NEAR
AVERAGE IN THE NEAR 60 TO MID 60S RANGE FOR MON/TUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME THUNDER.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 212351 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
651 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
BE THE FORECAST FOCUS AS WE SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WITH THE
PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE...AS DEW
PT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SW INTO CENTRAL NEB.
WILL HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE FOR FOG AS TEMPS COOL OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL ON FOG...HOWEVER DID SEE SOME
ACROSS WESTERN KS LAST NIGHT WHICH CREPT INTO FAR SW NEB THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
EXPECT ANY FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. MEANWHILE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES INTO NW NEB...A BAND/BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT AROUND 100 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE POSITIVE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER...SO LOCALLY COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH SFC BASED CAPE
INCREASING DURING THE DAYTIME. ALSO SEEING NEG LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER.
SHEAR IS WEAK SO NOT EXPENDING ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RICH
BL MOISTURE KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...HOWEVER SOME CLEARING AND
BETTER MIXING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH HIGHS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH FOLLOWS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CNTL
CANADA WILL CIRCULATE WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS LIMITING VERTICAL MIXING TO
AROUND 800MB. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND MID
SINGLE DIGITS C.

TEMPERATURES AT AND BELOW 700MB WARM A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND DEEP
WESTERLY WIND FIELDS DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
CANADA DRAWS WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE
BEST GUESS ON HIGHS FRIDAY IS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE MEX INDICATE MID 80S AND THIS COULD VERY WELL VERIFY IF
DEEP MIXING TO 700MB IS ACHIEVED DURING THE BRIEF PEAK HEATING
PERIOD OF LATE FALL. THERE IS THE HINT OF SOME MORNING STRATUS IN
THE NAM EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHICH IS CUSTOMARY OF WEAK PACIFIC FRONTS
AND WINDS ARE WEAK AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE NAM SHOWS THIS MOISTURE BEING
SWEPT EAST BY AFTN AND HUMIDITY PLUMMETS TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT BY 21Z.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. H700MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 10C SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS
IN THE 80S. A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE
CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WHICH PRESUMABLY WOULD LIMIT MIXING TO 800 TO 750MB.

A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS ACTUALLY A LEAD WAVE FOR A DEEPER UPPER
LEVEL TROF PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACCORDING TO HPC AND THE ECM...1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

COOL WEATHER TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COLDEST
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OVERHEAD. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BUT NOTE THAT HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS TIME
OF YEAR OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 212339
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
639 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THRU THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN STEADY...WITH LLVL
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THE LLVL JET
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 40KTS AND ORIENTS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. ALONG NOSE OF
THE JET AND IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER/SPRINKLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. FARTHER
WEST...A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT CLEAR CUT AND IS FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY MENTION ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PRECLUDE LOW VSBYS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP IN PRESENCE OF GOOD MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH BAND
OF PCPN ORIENTED N/S. INSTABILITY IS STILL LOOKING PRETTY
MEAGER...GENERALLY AROUND 300 J/KG AT BEST SO ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGE AROUND ONE INCH AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REVOLVES AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BOTH ENDS OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY EAST...BRINGING A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...BUT ITS A WEAK FRONT SO NOT
LOOKING AT A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEEDS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LINE OF
MAINLY SHOWERS /A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE/ SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA...AND LOOKS TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE HIGHER POPS REMAIN IN THE 00-
06Z TIME FRAME...WITH THINGS STARTING TO TREND DOWN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW QUICKLY
THINGS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA...AND KEPT SOME DECENT POPS GOING
ACROSS FAR SERN PORTIONS WELL INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE WITH THINGS DRYING OUT NEAR
SUNRISE...AND DECIDED TO PULL POPS POST 12Z THURSDAY.

KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...BY
EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE WI/IL
AREA...CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST BEFORE BECOMING MORE PHASED INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE NERN CONUS AS WE
GET INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BY THE END
OF THE DAY THURSDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MORE
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...AS RIDGING IS TRYING TO BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT
SW/MEXICO AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WELL OF THE WEST COAST. THIS
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY AND SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST...WITH THE AXIS BEING CENTERED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST A DRY
ONE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE WEST COAST...INTO THE ROCKIES AND
EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STARTING TO TURN MORE SWRLY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO WORK THEIR WAY IN ON MONDAY...BUT
AS IS COMMON THIS FAR OUT...THERE ARE SOME TIMING/LOCATION
DIFFERENCES /THOUGH AT THIS TIME THEY ARE FAIRLY MINOR/ BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE INITIAL ONSET AND EVOLUTION. AT THIS TIME...KEPT
POPS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 12-00Z MONDAY PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF THE CWA FOR THE MON
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE TUESDAY DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...STILL
LOOKING AT A NICE PERIOD OF HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR /ROUGHLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S/...BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES IN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND...LOOKING AT A WARMING
TREND...WITH THURS HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S AND MID/UPPER 70S FOR
FRI/SAT/SUN...BEFORE THAT NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRINGS HIGHS
BACK NEAR AVERAGE IN THE MID 50 TO MID 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR MON/TUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORFOLK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 212058
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
358 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING CHANGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIODS AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THRU THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS STATES
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN STEADY...WITH LLVL
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH.  THE LLVL JET
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 40KTS AND ORIENTS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. ALONG NOSE OF
THE JET AND IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER/SPRINKLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. FARTHER
WEST...A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT CLEAR CUT AND IS FOCUSED MORE SO ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME PATCHY MENTION ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS...BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PRECLUDE LOW VSBYS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP IN PRESENCE OF GOOD MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH BAND
OF PCPN ORIENTED N/S. INSTABILITY IS STILL LOOKING PRETTY
MEAGER...GENERALLY AROUND 300 J/KG AT BEST SO ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN THAT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGE AROUND ONE INCH AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND
THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REVOLVES AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BOTH ENDS OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY EAST...BRINGING A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...BUT ITS A WEAK FRONT SO NOT
LOOKING AT A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEEDS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LINE OF
MAINLY SHOWERS /A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE/ SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA...AND LOOKS TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE HIGHER POPS REMAIN IN THE 00-
06Z TIME FRAME...WITH THINGS STARTING TO TREND DOWN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW QUICKLY
THINGS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA...AND KEPT SOME DECENT POPS GOING
ACROSS FAR SERN PORTIONS WELL INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE WITH THINGS DRYING OUT NEAR
SUNRISE...AND DECIDED TO PULL POPS POST 12Z THURSDAY.

KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...BY
EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE WI/IL
AREA...CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST BEFORE BECOMING MORE PHASED INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE NERN CONUS AS WE
GET INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BY THE END
OF THE DAY THURSDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MORE
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...AS RIDGING IS TRYING TO BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT
SW/MEXICO AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WELL OF THE WEST COAST. THIS
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY AND SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST...WITH THE AXIS BEING CENTERED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST A DRY
ONE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE WEST COAST...INTO THE ROCKIES AND
EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STARTING TO TURN MORE SWRLY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO WORK THEIR WAY IN ON MONDAY...BUT
AS IS COMMON THIS FAR OUT...THERE ARE SOME TIMING/LOCATION
DIFFERENCES /THOUGH AT THIS TIME THEY ARE FAIRLY MINOR/ BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE INITIAL ONSET AND EVOLUTION. AT THIS TIME...KEPT
POPS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 12-00Z MONDAY PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF THE CWA FOR THE MON
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE TUESDAY DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...STILL
LOOKING AT A NICE PERIOD OF HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR /ROUGHLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S/...BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES IN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND...LOOKING AT A WARMING
TREND...WITH THURS HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S AND MID/UPPER 70S FOR
FRI/SAT/SUN...BEFORE THAT NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRINGS HIGHS
BACK NEAR AVERAGE IN THE MID 50 TO MID 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR MON/TUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HAVE KEPT CIGS GENERALLY AT VFR BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECT STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PRECLUDE LOWER VSBYS. CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE TOWARD THE LATTER TAF HOURS WITH BETTER CHCS
FOR PCPN JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 212052
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
352 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UNSEASONABLY MILD FALL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
TODAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES.  IN STEADY SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS...MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE WITH DPS RISING INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.  IN FULL INSOLATION...TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WITH
THE INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE.  SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES AND SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  NAM
VSBY PROGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA AND SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK
WHEREAS SREF INDICATES THE LOWER VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281.  THIS BEING SAID WITH MODELS SUGGESTING STRATUS/FOG
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL AND WENT AHEAD WITH PATCHY FOG
WORDING.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STEADY THRU THE NIGHT...GENERALLY
AOA 10KTS AND EXPECT THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR TRENDS OF THIS.

THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 40KTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE NOSE OF
THE JET AXIS FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
PCPN DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY EDGE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA
MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE TRANSLATING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MID/LATE MORNING IN PRESENCE OF STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH
PCPN BAND ORIENTED N/S. INSTABILITY IS ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND ONE INCH AND IN
GENERAL SOME QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...AND THIS IS OUR BEST CHC FOR RAIN FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL
DAYS.  HAVE SCALED BACK WEDNESDAY TEMPS DUE TO PCPN AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.  READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S NW/SE.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REVOLVES AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BOTH ENDS OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY EAST...BRINGING A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...BUT ITS A WEAK FRONT SO NOT
LOOKING AT A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEEDS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LINE OF
MAINLY SHOWERS /A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE/ SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA...AND LOOKS TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WAS TO ADD MORE TIMING DETAILS...HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM 00-03Z...QUICKLY DROPPING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM 03-09Z...WITH THE FORECAST DRYING OUT FOR 09-12ZZ.

KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...BY
EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE WI/IL
AREA...CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST BEFORE BECOMING MORE PHASED INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE NERN CONUS AS WE
GET INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...BY THE END
OF THE DAY THURSDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MORE
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST...AS RIDGING IS TRYING TO BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT
SW/MEXICO AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WELL OF THE WEST COAST. THIS
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY AND SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST...WITH THE AXIS BEING CENTERED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST A DRY
ONE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE WEST COAST...INTO THE ROCKIES AND
EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STARTING TO TURN MORE SWRLY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT THE BETTER LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO WORK THEIR WAY IN ON MONDAY...BUT
AS IS COMMON THIS FAR OUT...THERE ARE SOME TIMING/LOCATION
DIFFERENCES /THOUGH AT THIS TIME THEY ARE FAIRLY MINOR/ BETWEEN
MODELS WITH THE INITIAL ONSET AND EVOLUTION. AT THIS TIME...KEPT
POPS CONFINED TO THE 12-00Z MONDAY PERIOD...BUT ITS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SOME POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE MON EVENING/OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND.  BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE TUESDAY
DRY AT THIS POINT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...STILL
LOOKING AT A NICE PERIOD OF HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR /ROUGHLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S/...BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES IN
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND...LOOKING AT A WARMING
TREND...WITH THURS HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S AND MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR FRI/SAT.  SUNDAYS NOT BAD EITHER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S...BEFORE THAT NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BRINGS HIGHS BACK NEAR
AVERAGE IN THE NEAR 60 TO MID 60S RANGE FOR MON/TUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KTS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS TOWARD MORNING AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER DID NOT
REDUCE VSBYS MUCH DUE TO THE EXPECTED STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP TOWARD THE
LATTER TAF HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 212028
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
BE THE FORECAST FOCUS AS WE SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WITH THE
PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE...AS DEW
PT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SW INTO CENTRAL NEB.
WILL HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE FOR FOG AS TEMPS COOL OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL ON FOG...HOWEVER DID SEE SOME
ACROSS WESTERN KS LAST NIGHT WHICH CREPT INTO FAR SW NEB THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
EXPECT ANY FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. MEANWHILE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES INTO NW NEB...A BAND/BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT AROUND 100 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE POSITIVE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER...SO LOCALLY COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH SFC BASED CAPE
INCREASING DURING THE DAYTIME. ALSO SEEING NEG LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER.
SHEAR IS WEAK SO NOT EXPENDING ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RICH
BL MOISTURE KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...HOWEVER SOME CLEARING AND
BETTER MIXING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH HIGHS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH FOLLOWS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CNTL
CANADA WILL CIRCULATE WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS LIMITING VERTICAL MIXING TO
AROUND 800MB. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND MID
SINGLE DIGITS C.

TEMPERATURES AT AND BELOW 700MB WARM A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND DEEP
WESTERLY WIND FIELDS DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
CANADA DRAWS WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE
BEST GUESS ON HIGHS FRIDAY IS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE MEX INDICATE MID 80S AND THIS COULD VERY WELL VERIFY IF
DEEP MIXING TO 700MB IS ACHIEVED DURING THE BRIEF PEAK HEATING
PERIOD OF LATE FALL. THERE IS THE HINT OF SOME MORNING STRATUS IN
THE NAM EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHICH IS CUSTOMARY OF WEAK PACIFIC FRONTS
AND WINDS ARE WEAK AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE NAM SHOWS THIS MOISTURE BEING
SWEPT EAST BY AFTN AND HUMIDITY PLUMMETS TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT BY 21Z.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. H700MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 10C SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS
IN THE 80S. A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE
CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WHICH PRESUMABLY WOULD LIMIT MIXING TO 800 TO 750MB.

A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS ACTUALLY A LEAD WAVE FOR A DEEPER UPPER
LEVEL TROF PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACCORDING TO HPC AND THE ECM...1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

COOL WEATHER TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COLDEST
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OVERHEAD. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BUT NOTE THAT HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS TIME
OF YEAR OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TODAY WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING
OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT /LESS THAN
10KTS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IMPACT AT TERMINAL SIGHTS STILL
SEEING SOME UNCERTAINTY...THUS WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
SHRA...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MVR/IFR CIGS. THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 211807
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
107 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIRCRAFT WIND REPORTS SHOW THE TRAJECTORY
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL RADAR WIND
PROFILERS SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE 20-25MM IS INDICATED. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE
07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH DEEPENS...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WIND APPROACHING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 305-310K
(800-650MB) LAYER FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND 09Z AND THEN TOWARD
12Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION BY
09Z AT LEAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY IS LOWER IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND OTHER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. BLENDING THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEMREG...THE
NAM12...THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS. STILL...THE FORCING COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06Z NORTH.
WITH 875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN 0C...ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN WITH
ANOMALOUS WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
THEY HAVE MOVED TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AT 12Z THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS /BELOW 800MB/ THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING...WITH
OMEGA SIGNAL OF 5-10 UBAR/S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
STRONGEST OMEGA SIGNAL IS SEEN IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN IT
SUBSIDES EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAS SEEING REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH PICK BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SIGNAL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES IN THE MORNING FELT LIKE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...THE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA/INSTABILITY ALL INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL WOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY MOSTLY OCCUR WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OR JUST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
PUSH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES BEYOND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THINK ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT
SOONER.

LOOKING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL INDUCE THE GOOD STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE.
UNDER THE RIDGE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH CLOSER TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THURSDAY/S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS THE WARM AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN...BUT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C OVER
NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE DON/T SEE ANYTHING PROHIBITING THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ALSO...JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...LOOKED AT ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS
WHICH SHOWED 500MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING OF A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
THE INCREASED LIFT MOVING IN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. EITHER WAY...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHAT SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TODAY WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING
OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT /LESS THAN
10KTS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IMPACT AT TERMINAL SIGHTS STILL
SEEING SOME UNCERTAINTY...THUS WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
SHRA...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MVR/IFR CIGS. THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MASEK






000
FXUS63 KOAX 211725
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1225 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD AND TIMING OF SYSTEM COMING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
DID CHANGE TO A FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NAM...GFS AND EURO ALL
SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION IN PLACING PRECIP AXIS INTO CENTRAL
IOWA BY 12Z THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE PERIOD. LITTLE COOLING COMING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH UPPER RIDGE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE WEEKEND AND DRY WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
THE GFS AND EURO HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...APPEARS SOME LOW POPS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOULD TREND COOLER AFTER SUNDAY WITH
UPPER TROUGH IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HAVE KEPT CIGS GENERALLY AT VFR BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECT STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PRECLUDE LOWER VSBYS. CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE TOWARD THE LATTER TAF HOURS WITH BETTER CHCS
FOR PCPN JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 211711
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1211 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS DISCUSSED IN THE MAIN DIATRIBE BELOW...HOURLY TEMP TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A PAIN THIS MORNING AS MANY AIRPORT SITES CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE SEVERAL DEGREES IN A SHORT TIME IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY
SUBTLE COUPLING/DECOUPLING OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS LIGHT
BREEZES COME AND GO. IN GENERAL THOUGH...MOST OF THE CWA (WITH THE
INTERESTING EXCEPTION OF THE AIRPORT SENSORS AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS) HAVE BOTTOMED OUT A BIT COLDER THAN EXPECTED
SEVERAL HOURS AGO...AND ACTUAL LOWS FOR MOST OF THE CWA WILL
OFFICIALLY GO DOWN IN THE 38-45 RANGE MOST AREAS...AND EVEN AS
BRIEFLY COLD AS 36 AT ORD. OTHERWISE...AS WAS SUSPECTED ANY KIND
OF MENTIONABLE FOG HAS BEEN A NON-ISSUE LOCALLY...AND ALTHOUGH
PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING JUST TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER
IT BECOMES WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO APPRECIABLY AFFECT SKY COVER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUES/QUESTIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVE 1)
TO WHAT EXTENT (IF MUCH OF ANY) WILL A LOWER STRATUS DECK POSSIBLY
AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TODAY AND INTERRUPT
AN OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...2) TO WHAT EXTENT MIGHT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT BAY. THE SHORT ANSWER TO
NUMBER 1 IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS OPTIMISTICALLY GEARED
TOWARD A NO-WORSE-THAN- PARTLY CLOUDY DAY AS A WHOLE AND REGARDING
NUMBER 2...CAME VERY CLOSE TO TOSSING A GENERIC PATCHY FOG MENTION
INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT OPTED AGAINST IT FOR NOW
AND WILL GIVE NEXT FEW SHIFTS ANOTHER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
REASONS OUTLINED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A MILD AND DRY 24 HOURS (ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THIS EVENING) WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY BEING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AT 0830Z/330AM...SKIES ARE
ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE CWA-WIDE...WITH 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
INDICATING ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF STRATUS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN KS BUT STILL WELL-SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...08Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES THE CWA JUST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A BROAD RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY...BUT
WITH THIS RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO KEEP BREEZES IN
THE NEAR-CALM TO GENERALLY LESS-THAN-6 MPH FROM THE SOUTH VARIETY.
AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE CLEAR SKY/SLIGHTLY VARIABLE BREEZE
REGIMES...TEMPS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND RATHER RANDOMLY...WITH THE
LATEST OBS INDICATING A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 TO NEAR-50 ACROSS THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST HAVE EVEN
TOUCHED THE UPPER 30S. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...MOST PLACES
SHOULD END UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 39-46 RANGE BUT
WITH SOME WARMER EXCEPTIONS VERY POSSIBLE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCENE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS
THAT THE CWA STILL LIES UNDER A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH-
SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART OF THE NATION...ALTHOUGH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY-BUT-SURELY APPROACHING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE NV/ID BORDER AREA AND OBVIOUSLY WILL PLAY A
LARGER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR WED DAY-NIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
LONG TERM BELOW.

SWITCHING GEARS TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST AND STARTING WITH
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS HINTED IN THE UPDATE DISCUSSION A FEW
HOURS AGO HAVE OPTED TO OFFICIALLY PULL THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES (MAINLY KS)...AS CURRENT OBS AND
SHORT-TERM VSBY PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP13/HRRR STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT
ANY FOG WORTH MENTIONING SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST 50-75 MILES
SOUTH/ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS MORE
SO INTO THE MID-40S ARE FOCUSED.

GETTING PAST SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS...AS EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL
ACTUALLY BE SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY RETURNING TO
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AS
FORCING REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. THIS IS LARGELY IN PART BECAUSE THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE SLOWLY-
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS...AND EVEN BY DAY/S END THE MAIN WESTERN
CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ONLY PROGGED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
MT/WESTERN WY AREA. AT THE SURFACE TODAY...A GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A CLASSIC HIGH
PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOWARD MID-DAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BREEZES REALLY AMOUNT TO MUCH. ONCE THEY KICK
IN...SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND 15-20 MPH IN WESTERN ZONES WITH TYPICALLY HIGHER
GUSTS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH ABOVE SUSTAINED. AS EARLIER TOUCHED
ON...THE MAIN CAVEAT TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH SATURATION
WILL TAKE PLACE TO DRIVE AT LEAST A LOCALIZED ZONE OF PASSING
THICKER LOWER STRATUS INTO ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...OR
WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING WILL BE PRESENT TO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
STRATUS AS NO-WORSE-THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE. THERE ARE SOME MIXED
MESSAGES ON THIS...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW THE SKY COVER FORECAST
LEANS OPTIMISTIC ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA WITH
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER AT ALL ANTICIPATED THERE. BASED ON THE
CURRENT SKY COVER ASSUMPTIONS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING FOR GENERALLY MID-70S
MOST AREAS AND MAYBE SOME UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST (ASSUMING OF COURSE
THAT SKY COVER DOESN/T END UP BEING MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT). ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT MUGGY BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS TODAY ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-40S TO
MID-5OS RANGE (HIGHEST SOUTHWEST).

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...KEPT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VOID
OF ANY RAIN MENTION...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST POINT OUT THAT "SILENT"
5-10 PERCENT POPS ARE INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA POST-
MIDNIGHT AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGES OF A LOW-MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM
PRESENT IN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER THAT SUPPOSE A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS CANNOT BE 100 PERCENT RULED OUT. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY) STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT ANY LIMITED COVERAGE OF LATE
NIGHT RAIN WOULD FOCUS EITHER NORTHEAST AND/OR ESPECIALLY SLIGHTLY
WEST OF THE CWA WITHIN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB. IN THE LARGER
SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...THE LEADING EDGES OF IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING WAVE REACHES WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS
BY NIGHTS END...BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK LOCALLY AS
THE MAIN VORT MAX WITH THE SYSTEM STILL COMES NO CLOSER THAN
EASTERN MT/WY DURING THIS TIME. AS FOR SURFACE BREEZES
TONIGHT...THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MIXING INTO A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES FAIRLY STEADY MOST OF THE
NIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. THESE STEADY BREEZES ARGUE FAIRLY
CONVINCINGLY AGAINST SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES...BUT NEXT FEW SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING A TOKEN PATCHY FOG MENTION AS
NEIGHBORING OFFICES GLD/DDC HAVE ALREADY DONE IF IT APPEARS THE
NAM AND ASSOCIATED SREF/MET GUIDANCE VISIBILITY END UP BEING ONTO
SOMETHING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS-BASED MAV GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
DOWNPLAYS FOG POTENTIAL. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE LATEST 03Z SREF
PROBABILITY-OF-VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES PRODUCT IS ONLY MODESTLY-
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG. AT ANY RATE...EVEN IF FOG IS HELD TO A MINIMUM
AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THERE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT EITHER OF THE LOWER STRATUS AND/OR HIGHER CIRRUS
VARIETY. THE COMBO OF INCREASED MOISTURE...STEADY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSURES A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE ONGOING
ONE...AND ACTUALLY NUDGED UP FORECAST LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 1-3
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS IN MOST LOCATIONS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA
INTO THE 53-56 RANGE WHICH IS SOLIDLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AT LEAST INTO
THE 70S.

MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH A NOTABLE EXCEPTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE
AND SFC TROUGH TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE RAIN
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
FORM ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS. THE
FORCING WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL SLIDE
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A QUICK SEVERAL HOURS OF RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MORE WIDESPREAD BAND OF
GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND
CONSEQUENTLY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE OUT BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.50 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WE ARE CENTERED RIGHT BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80. THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS FRIDAY
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE A COLD FRONT LOCATED EITHER OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OR NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN COOLER
WEATHER POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE
PASSED SOUTHEAST OF US BY THAT TIME. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A
SUPERBLEND OF MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATES MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KTS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS TOWARD MORNING AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER DID NOT
REDUCE VSBYS MUCH DUE TO THE EXPECTED STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP TOWARD THE
LATTER TAF HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 211159
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS DISCUSSED IN THE MAIN DIATRIBE BELOW...HOURLY TEMP TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A PAIN THIS MORNING AS MANY AIRPORT SITES CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE SEVERAL DEGREES IN A SHORT TIME IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY
SUBTLE COUPLING/DECOUPLING OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS LIGHT
BREEZES COME AND GO. IN GENERAL THOUGH...MOST OF THE CWA (WITH THE
INTERESTING EXCEPTION OF THE AIRPORT SENSORS AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS) HAVE BOTTOMED OUT A BIT COLDER THAN EXPECTED
SEVERAL HOURS AGO...AND ACTUAL LOWS FOR MOST OF THE CWA WILL
OFFICIALLY GO DOWN IN THE 38-45 RANGE MOST AREAS...AND EVEN AS
BRIEFLY COLD AS 36 AT ORD. OTHERWISE...AS WAS SUSPECTED ANY KIND
OF MENTIONABLE FOG HAS BEEN A NON-ISSUE LOCALLY...AND ALTHOUGH
PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING JUST TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER
IT BECOMES WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO APPRECIABLY AFFECT SKY COVER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUES/QUESTIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVE 1)
TO WHAT EXTENT (IF MUCH OF ANY) WILL A LOWER STRATUS DECK POSSIBLY
AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TODAY AND INTERRUPT
AN OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...2) TO WHAT EXTENT MIGHT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT BAY. THE SHORT ANSWER TO
NUMBER 1 IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS OPTIMISTICALLY GEARED
TOWARD A NO-WORSE-THAN- PARTLY CLOUDY DAY AS A WHOLE AND REGARDING
NUMBER 2...CAME VERY CLOSE TO TOSSING A GENERIC PATCHY FOG MENTION
INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT OPTED AGAINST IT FOR NOW
AND WILL GIVE NEXT FEW SHIFTS ANOTHER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
REASONS OUTLINED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A MILD AND DRY 24 HOURS (ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THIS EVENING) WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY BEING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AT 0830Z/330AM...SKIES ARE
ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE CWA-WIDE...WITH 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
INDICATING ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF STRATUS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN KS BUT STILL WELL-SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...08Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES THE CWA JUST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A BROAD RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY...BUT
WITH THIS RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO KEEP BREEZES IN
THE NEAR-CALM TO GENERALLY LESS-THAN-6 MPH FROM THE SOUTH VARIETY.
AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE CLEAR SKY/SLIGHTLY VARIABLE BREEZE
REGIMES...TEMPS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND RATHER RANDOMLY...WITH THE
LATEST OBS INDICATING A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 TO NEAR-50 ACROSS THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST HAVE EVEN
TOUCHED THE UPPER 30S. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...MOST PLACES
SHOULD END UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 39-46 RANGE BUT
WITH SOME WARMER EXCEPTIONS VERY POSSIBLE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCENE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS
THAT THE CWA STILL LIES UNDER A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH-
SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART OF THE NATION...ALTHOUGH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY-BUT-SURELY APPROACHING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE NV/ID BORDER AREA AND OBVIOUSLY WILL PLAY A
LARGER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR WED DAY-NIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
LONG TERM BELOW.

SWITCHING GEARS TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST AND STARTING WITH
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS HINTED IN THE UPDATE DISCUSSION A FEW
HOURS AGO HAVE OPTED TO OFFICIALLY PULL THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES (MAINLY KS)...AS CURRENT OBS AND
SHORT-TERM VSBY PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP13/HRRR STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT
ANY FOG WORTH MENTIONING SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST 50-75 MILES
SOUTH/ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS MORE
SO INTO THE MID-40S ARE FOCUSED.

GETTING PAST SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS...AS EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL
ACTUALLY BE SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY RETURNING TO
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AS
FORCING REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. THIS IS LARGELY IN PART BECAUSE THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE SLOWLY-
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS...AND EVEN BY DAY/S END THE MAIN WESTERN
CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ONLY PROGGED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
MT/WESTERN WY AREA. AT THE SURFACE TODAY...A GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A CLASSIC HIGH
PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOWARD MID-DAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BREEZES REALLY AMOUNT TO MUCH. ONCE THEY KICK
IN...SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND 15-20 MPH IN WESTERN ZONES WITH TYPICALLY HIGHER
GUSTS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH ABOVE SUSTAINED. AS EARLIER TOUCHED
ON...THE MAIN CAVEAT TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH SATURATION
WILL TAKE PLACE TO DRIVE AT LEAST A LOCALIZED ZONE OF PASSING
THICKER LOWER STRATUS INTO ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...OR
WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING WILL BE PRESENT TO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
STRATUS AS NO-WORSE-THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE. THERE ARE SOME MIXED
MESSAGES ON THIS...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW THE SKY COVER FORECAST
LEANS OPTIMISTIC ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA WITH
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER AT ALL ANTICIPATED THERE. BASED ON THE
CURRENT SKY COVER ASSUMPTIONS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING FOR GENERALLY MID-70S
MOST AREAS AND MAYBE SOME UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST (ASSUMING OF COURSE
THAT SKY COVER DOESN/T END UP BEING MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT). ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT MUGGY BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS TODAY ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-40S TO
MID-5OS RANGE (HIGHEST SOUTHWEST).

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...KEPT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VOID
OF ANY RAIN MENTION...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST POINT OUT THAT "SILENT"
5-10 PERCENT POPS ARE INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA POST-
MIDNIGHT AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGES OF A LOW-MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM
PRESENT IN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER THAT SUPPOSE A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS CANNOT BE 100 PERCENT RULED OUT. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY) STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT ANY LIMITED COVERAGE OF LATE
NIGHT RAIN WOULD FOCUS EITHER NORTHEAST AND/OR ESPECIALLY SLIGHTLY
WEST OF THE CWA WITHIN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB. IN THE LARGER
SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...THE LEADING EDGES OF IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING WAVE REACHES WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS
BY NIGHTS END...BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK LOCALLY AS
THE MAIN VORT MAX WITH THE SYSTEM STILL COMES NO CLOSER THAN
EASTERN MT/WY DURING THIS TIME. AS FOR SURFACE BREEZES
TONIGHT...THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MIXING INTO A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES FAIRLY STEADY MOST OF THE
NIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. THESE STEADY BREEZES ARGUE FAIRLY
CONVINCINGLY AGAINST SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES...BUT NEXT FEW SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING A TOKEN PATCHY FOG MENTION AS
NEIGHBORING OFFICES GLD/DDC HAVE ALREADY DONE IF IT APPEARS THE
NAM AND ASSOCIATED SREF/MET GUIDANCE VISIBILITY END UP BEING ONTO
SOMETHING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS-BASED MAV GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
DOWNPLAYS FOG POTENTIAL. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE LATEST 03Z SREF
PROBABILITY-OF-VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES PRODUCT IS ONLY MODESTLY-
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG. AT ANY RATE...EVEN IF FOG IS HELD TO A MINIMUM
AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THERE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT EITHER OF THE LOWER STRATUS AND/OR HIGHER CIRRUS
VARIETY. THE COMBO OF INCREASED MOISTURE...STEADY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSURES A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE ONGOING
ONE...AND ACTUALLY NUDGED UP FORECAST LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 1-3
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS IN MOST LOCATIONS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA
INTO THE 53-56 RANGE WHICH IS SOLIDLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AT LEAST INTO
THE 70S.

MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH A NOTABLE EXCEPTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE
AND SFC TROUGH TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE RAIN
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
FORM ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS. THE
FORCING WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL SLIDE
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A QUICK SEVERAL HOURS OF RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MORE WIDESPREAD BAND OF
GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND
CONSEQUENTLY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE OUT BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.50 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WE ARE CENTERED RIGHT BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80. THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS FRIDAY
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE A COLD FRONT LOCATED EITHER OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OR NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN COOLER
WEATHER POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE
PASSED SOUTHEAST OF US BY THAT TIME. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A
SUPERBLEND OF MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATES MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS...VARIOUS QUESTION MARKS CROP UP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT...SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A LOW CEILING OF AT LEAST MVFR LEVEL COULD SETTLE IN ALONG WITH
MAYBE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL...WHILE OTHER MODEL/GUIDANCE
SETS ARE LESS BULLISH ON BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTIMISTIC BY ONLY
SUGGESTING A SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD MENTION AND A LOW-END VFR
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS COULD TREND MORE PESSIMISTIC IN LATER
FORECASTS. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERED INTRODUCING AT LEAST A 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER
06Z...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL BULK SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT IS CURRENTLY
ONLY EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30KT...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MARGINAL
FOR A FORMAL LLWS INCLUSION. AGAIN...LATER FORECASTS CAN TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THESE TRENDS. AS FOR SURFACE WIND TRENDS...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
BREEZY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGE AROUND 15KT
WITH GUSTS 20+KT...WITH THESE WINDS THEN DECREASING A BIT TONIGHT
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 12KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 211159
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS DISCUSSED IN THE MAIN DIATRIBE BELOW...HOURLY TEMP TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A PAIN THIS MORNING AS MANY AIRPORT SITES CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE SEVERAL DEGREES IN A SHORT TIME IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY
SUBTLE COUPLING/DECOUPLING OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS LIGHT
BREEZES COME AND GO. IN GENERAL THOUGH...MOST OF THE CWA (WITH THE
INTERESTING EXCEPTION OF THE AIRPORT SENSORS AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS) HAVE BOTTOMED OUT A BIT COLDER THAN EXPECTED
SEVERAL HOURS AGO...AND ACTUAL LOWS FOR MOST OF THE CWA WILL
OFFICIALLY GO DOWN IN THE 38-45 RANGE MOST AREAS...AND EVEN AS
BRIEFLY COLD AS 36 AT ORD. OTHERWISE...AS WAS SUSPECTED ANY KIND
OF MENTIONABLE FOG HAS BEEN A NON-ISSUE LOCALLY...AND ALTHOUGH
PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING JUST TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER
IT BECOMES WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO APPRECIABLY AFFECT SKY COVER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUES/QUESTIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVE 1)
TO WHAT EXTENT (IF MUCH OF ANY) WILL A LOWER STRATUS DECK POSSIBLY
AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TODAY AND INTERRUPT
AN OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...2) TO WHAT EXTENT MIGHT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT BAY. THE SHORT ANSWER TO
NUMBER 1 IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS OPTIMISTICALLY GEARED
TOWARD A NO-WORSE-THAN- PARTLY CLOUDY DAY AS A WHOLE AND REGARDING
NUMBER 2...CAME VERY CLOSE TO TOSSING A GENERIC PATCHY FOG MENTION
INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT OPTED AGAINST IT FOR NOW
AND WILL GIVE NEXT FEW SHIFTS ANOTHER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
REASONS OUTLINED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A MILD AND DRY 24 HOURS (ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THIS EVENING) WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY BEING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AT 0830Z/330AM...SKIES ARE
ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE CWA-WIDE...WITH 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
INDICATING ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF STRATUS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN KS BUT STILL WELL-SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...08Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES THE CWA JUST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A BROAD RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY...BUT
WITH THIS RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO KEEP BREEZES IN
THE NEAR-CALM TO GENERALLY LESS-THAN-6 MPH FROM THE SOUTH VARIETY.
AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE CLEAR SKY/SLIGHTLY VARIABLE BREEZE
REGIMES...TEMPS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND RATHER RANDOMLY...WITH THE
LATEST OBS INDICATING A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 TO NEAR-50 ACROSS THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST HAVE EVEN
TOUCHED THE UPPER 30S. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...MOST PLACES
SHOULD END UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 39-46 RANGE BUT
WITH SOME WARMER EXCEPTIONS VERY POSSIBLE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCENE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS
THAT THE CWA STILL LIES UNDER A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH-
SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART OF THE NATION...ALTHOUGH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY-BUT-SURELY APPROACHING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE NV/ID BORDER AREA AND OBVIOUSLY WILL PLAY A
LARGER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR WED DAY-NIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
LONG TERM BELOW.

SWITCHING GEARS TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST AND STARTING WITH
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS HINTED IN THE UPDATE DISCUSSION A FEW
HOURS AGO HAVE OPTED TO OFFICIALLY PULL THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES (MAINLY KS)...AS CURRENT OBS AND
SHORT-TERM VSBY PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP13/HRRR STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT
ANY FOG WORTH MENTIONING SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST 50-75 MILES
SOUTH/ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS MORE
SO INTO THE MID-40S ARE FOCUSED.

GETTING PAST SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS...AS EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL
ACTUALLY BE SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY RETURNING TO
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AS
FORCING REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. THIS IS LARGELY IN PART BECAUSE THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE SLOWLY-
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS...AND EVEN BY DAY/S END THE MAIN WESTERN
CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ONLY PROGGED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
MT/WESTERN WY AREA. AT THE SURFACE TODAY...A GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A CLASSIC HIGH
PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOWARD MID-DAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BREEZES REALLY AMOUNT TO MUCH. ONCE THEY KICK
IN...SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND 15-20 MPH IN WESTERN ZONES WITH TYPICALLY HIGHER
GUSTS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH ABOVE SUSTAINED. AS EARLIER TOUCHED
ON...THE MAIN CAVEAT TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH SATURATION
WILL TAKE PLACE TO DRIVE AT LEAST A LOCALIZED ZONE OF PASSING
THICKER LOWER STRATUS INTO ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...OR
WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING WILL BE PRESENT TO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
STRATUS AS NO-WORSE-THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE. THERE ARE SOME MIXED
MESSAGES ON THIS...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW THE SKY COVER FORECAST
LEANS OPTIMISTIC ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA WITH
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER AT ALL ANTICIPATED THERE. BASED ON THE
CURRENT SKY COVER ASSUMPTIONS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING FOR GENERALLY MID-70S
MOST AREAS AND MAYBE SOME UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST (ASSUMING OF COURSE
THAT SKY COVER DOESN/T END UP BEING MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT). ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT MUGGY BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS TODAY ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-40S TO
MID-5OS RANGE (HIGHEST SOUTHWEST).

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...KEPT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VOID
OF ANY RAIN MENTION...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST POINT OUT THAT "SILENT"
5-10 PERCENT POPS ARE INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA POST-
MIDNIGHT AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGES OF A LOW-MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM
PRESENT IN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER THAT SUPPOSE A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS CANNOT BE 100 PERCENT RULED OUT. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY) STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT ANY LIMITED COVERAGE OF LATE
NIGHT RAIN WOULD FOCUS EITHER NORTHEAST AND/OR ESPECIALLY SLIGHTLY
WEST OF THE CWA WITHIN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB. IN THE LARGER
SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...THE LEADING EDGES OF IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING WAVE REACHES WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS
BY NIGHTS END...BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK LOCALLY AS
THE MAIN VORT MAX WITH THE SYSTEM STILL COMES NO CLOSER THAN
EASTERN MT/WY DURING THIS TIME. AS FOR SURFACE BREEZES
TONIGHT...THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MIXING INTO A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES FAIRLY STEADY MOST OF THE
NIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. THESE STEADY BREEZES ARGUE FAIRLY
CONVINCINGLY AGAINST SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES...BUT NEXT FEW SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING A TOKEN PATCHY FOG MENTION AS
NEIGHBORING OFFICES GLD/DDC HAVE ALREADY DONE IF IT APPEARS THE
NAM AND ASSOCIATED SREF/MET GUIDANCE VISIBILITY END UP BEING ONTO
SOMETHING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS-BASED MAV GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
DOWNPLAYS FOG POTENTIAL. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE LATEST 03Z SREF
PROBABILITY-OF-VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES PRODUCT IS ONLY MODESTLY-
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG. AT ANY RATE...EVEN IF FOG IS HELD TO A MINIMUM
AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THERE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT EITHER OF THE LOWER STRATUS AND/OR HIGHER CIRRUS
VARIETY. THE COMBO OF INCREASED MOISTURE...STEADY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSURES A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE ONGOING
ONE...AND ACTUALLY NUDGED UP FORECAST LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 1-3
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS IN MOST LOCATIONS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA
INTO THE 53-56 RANGE WHICH IS SOLIDLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AT LEAST INTO
THE 70S.

MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH A NOTABLE EXCEPTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE
AND SFC TROUGH TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE RAIN
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
FORM ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS. THE
FORCING WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL SLIDE
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A QUICK SEVERAL HOURS OF RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MORE WIDESPREAD BAND OF
GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND
CONSEQUENTLY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE OUT BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.50 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WE ARE CENTERED RIGHT BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80. THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS FRIDAY
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE A COLD FRONT LOCATED EITHER OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OR NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN COOLER
WEATHER POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE
PASSED SOUTHEAST OF US BY THAT TIME. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A
SUPERBLEND OF MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATES MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS...VARIOUS QUESTION MARKS CROP UP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT...SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A LOW CEILING OF AT LEAST MVFR LEVEL COULD SETTLE IN ALONG WITH
MAYBE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL...WHILE OTHER MODEL/GUIDANCE
SETS ARE LESS BULLISH ON BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTIMISTIC BY ONLY
SUGGESTING A SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD MENTION AND A LOW-END VFR
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS COULD TREND MORE PESSIMISTIC IN LATER
FORECASTS. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERED INTRODUCING AT LEAST A 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER
06Z...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL BULK SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT IS CURRENTLY
ONLY EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30KT...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MARGINAL
FOR A FORMAL LLWS INCLUSION. AGAIN...LATER FORECASTS CAN TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THESE TRENDS. AS FOR SURFACE WIND TRENDS...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
BREEZY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGE AROUND 15KT
WITH GUSTS 20+KT...WITH THESE WINDS THEN DECREASING A BIT TONIGHT
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 12KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 211159
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS DISCUSSED IN THE MAIN DIATRIBE BELOW...HOURLY TEMP TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A PAIN THIS MORNING AS MANY AIRPORT SITES CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE SEVERAL DEGREES IN A SHORT TIME IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY
SUBTLE COUPLING/DECOUPLING OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS LIGHT
BREEZES COME AND GO. IN GENERAL THOUGH...MOST OF THE CWA (WITH THE
INTERESTING EXCEPTION OF THE AIRPORT SENSORS AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS) HAVE BOTTOMED OUT A BIT COLDER THAN EXPECTED
SEVERAL HOURS AGO...AND ACTUAL LOWS FOR MOST OF THE CWA WILL
OFFICIALLY GO DOWN IN THE 38-45 RANGE MOST AREAS...AND EVEN AS
BRIEFLY COLD AS 36 AT ORD. OTHERWISE...AS WAS SUSPECTED ANY KIND
OF MENTIONABLE FOG HAS BEEN A NON-ISSUE LOCALLY...AND ALTHOUGH
PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING JUST TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER
IT BECOMES WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO APPRECIABLY AFFECT SKY COVER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUES/QUESTIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVE 1)
TO WHAT EXTENT (IF MUCH OF ANY) WILL A LOWER STRATUS DECK POSSIBLY
AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TODAY AND INTERRUPT
AN OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...2) TO WHAT EXTENT MIGHT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT BAY. THE SHORT ANSWER TO
NUMBER 1 IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS OPTIMISTICALLY GEARED
TOWARD A NO-WORSE-THAN- PARTLY CLOUDY DAY AS A WHOLE AND REGARDING
NUMBER 2...CAME VERY CLOSE TO TOSSING A GENERIC PATCHY FOG MENTION
INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT OPTED AGAINST IT FOR NOW
AND WILL GIVE NEXT FEW SHIFTS ANOTHER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
REASONS OUTLINED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A MILD AND DRY 24 HOURS (ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THIS EVENING) WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY BEING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AT 0830Z/330AM...SKIES ARE
ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE CWA-WIDE...WITH 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
INDICATING ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF STRATUS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN KS BUT STILL WELL-SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...08Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES THE CWA JUST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A BROAD RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY...BUT
WITH THIS RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO KEEP BREEZES IN
THE NEAR-CALM TO GENERALLY LESS-THAN-6 MPH FROM THE SOUTH VARIETY.
AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE CLEAR SKY/SLIGHTLY VARIABLE BREEZE
REGIMES...TEMPS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND RATHER RANDOMLY...WITH THE
LATEST OBS INDICATING A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 TO NEAR-50 ACROSS THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST HAVE EVEN
TOUCHED THE UPPER 30S. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...MOST PLACES
SHOULD END UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 39-46 RANGE BUT
WITH SOME WARMER EXCEPTIONS VERY POSSIBLE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCENE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS
THAT THE CWA STILL LIES UNDER A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH-
SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART OF THE NATION...ALTHOUGH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY-BUT-SURELY APPROACHING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE NV/ID BORDER AREA AND OBVIOUSLY WILL PLAY A
LARGER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR WED DAY-NIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
LONG TERM BELOW.

SWITCHING GEARS TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST AND STARTING WITH
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS HINTED IN THE UPDATE DISCUSSION A FEW
HOURS AGO HAVE OPTED TO OFFICIALLY PULL THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES (MAINLY KS)...AS CURRENT OBS AND
SHORT-TERM VSBY PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP13/HRRR STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT
ANY FOG WORTH MENTIONING SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST 50-75 MILES
SOUTH/ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS MORE
SO INTO THE MID-40S ARE FOCUSED.

GETTING PAST SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS...AS EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL
ACTUALLY BE SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY RETURNING TO
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AS
FORCING REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. THIS IS LARGELY IN PART BECAUSE THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE SLOWLY-
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS...AND EVEN BY DAY/S END THE MAIN WESTERN
CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ONLY PROGGED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
MT/WESTERN WY AREA. AT THE SURFACE TODAY...A GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A CLASSIC HIGH
PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOWARD MID-DAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BREEZES REALLY AMOUNT TO MUCH. ONCE THEY KICK
IN...SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND 15-20 MPH IN WESTERN ZONES WITH TYPICALLY HIGHER
GUSTS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH ABOVE SUSTAINED. AS EARLIER TOUCHED
ON...THE MAIN CAVEAT TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH SATURATION
WILL TAKE PLACE TO DRIVE AT LEAST A LOCALIZED ZONE OF PASSING
THICKER LOWER STRATUS INTO ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...OR
WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING WILL BE PRESENT TO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
STRATUS AS NO-WORSE-THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE. THERE ARE SOME MIXED
MESSAGES ON THIS...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW THE SKY COVER FORECAST
LEANS OPTIMISTIC ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA WITH
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER AT ALL ANTICIPATED THERE. BASED ON THE
CURRENT SKY COVER ASSUMPTIONS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING FOR GENERALLY MID-70S
MOST AREAS AND MAYBE SOME UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST (ASSUMING OF COURSE
THAT SKY COVER DOESN/T END UP BEING MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT). ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT MUGGY BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS TODAY ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-40S TO
MID-5OS RANGE (HIGHEST SOUTHWEST).

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...KEPT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VOID
OF ANY RAIN MENTION...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST POINT OUT THAT "SILENT"
5-10 PERCENT POPS ARE INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA POST-
MIDNIGHT AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGES OF A LOW-MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM
PRESENT IN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER THAT SUPPOSE A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS CANNOT BE 100 PERCENT RULED OUT. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY) STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT ANY LIMITED COVERAGE OF LATE
NIGHT RAIN WOULD FOCUS EITHER NORTHEAST AND/OR ESPECIALLY SLIGHTLY
WEST OF THE CWA WITHIN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB. IN THE LARGER
SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...THE LEADING EDGES OF IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING WAVE REACHES WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS
BY NIGHTS END...BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK LOCALLY AS
THE MAIN VORT MAX WITH THE SYSTEM STILL COMES NO CLOSER THAN
EASTERN MT/WY DURING THIS TIME. AS FOR SURFACE BREEZES
TONIGHT...THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MIXING INTO A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES FAIRLY STEADY MOST OF THE
NIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. THESE STEADY BREEZES ARGUE FAIRLY
CONVINCINGLY AGAINST SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES...BUT NEXT FEW SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING A TOKEN PATCHY FOG MENTION AS
NEIGHBORING OFFICES GLD/DDC HAVE ALREADY DONE IF IT APPEARS THE
NAM AND ASSOCIATED SREF/MET GUIDANCE VISIBILITY END UP BEING ONTO
SOMETHING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS-BASED MAV GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
DOWNPLAYS FOG POTENTIAL. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE LATEST 03Z SREF
PROBABILITY-OF-VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES PRODUCT IS ONLY MODESTLY-
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG. AT ANY RATE...EVEN IF FOG IS HELD TO A MINIMUM
AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THERE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT EITHER OF THE LOWER STRATUS AND/OR HIGHER CIRRUS
VARIETY. THE COMBO OF INCREASED MOISTURE...STEADY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSURES A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE ONGOING
ONE...AND ACTUALLY NUDGED UP FORECAST LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 1-3
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS IN MOST LOCATIONS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA
INTO THE 53-56 RANGE WHICH IS SOLIDLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AT LEAST INTO
THE 70S.

MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH A NOTABLE EXCEPTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE
AND SFC TROUGH TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE RAIN
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
FORM ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS. THE
FORCING WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL SLIDE
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A QUICK SEVERAL HOURS OF RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MORE WIDESPREAD BAND OF
GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND
CONSEQUENTLY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE OUT BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.50 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WE ARE CENTERED RIGHT BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80. THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS FRIDAY
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE A COLD FRONT LOCATED EITHER OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OR NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN COOLER
WEATHER POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE
PASSED SOUTHEAST OF US BY THAT TIME. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A
SUPERBLEND OF MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATES MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS...VARIOUS QUESTION MARKS CROP UP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT...SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A LOW CEILING OF AT LEAST MVFR LEVEL COULD SETTLE IN ALONG WITH
MAYBE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL...WHILE OTHER MODEL/GUIDANCE
SETS ARE LESS BULLISH ON BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTIMISTIC BY ONLY
SUGGESTING A SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD MENTION AND A LOW-END VFR
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS COULD TREND MORE PESSIMISTIC IN LATER
FORECASTS. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERED INTRODUCING AT LEAST A 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER
06Z...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL BULK SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT IS CURRENTLY
ONLY EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30KT...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MARGINAL
FOR A FORMAL LLWS INCLUSION. AGAIN...LATER FORECASTS CAN TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THESE TRENDS. AS FOR SURFACE WIND TRENDS...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
BREEZY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGE AROUND 15KT
WITH GUSTS 20+KT...WITH THESE WINDS THEN DECREASING A BIT TONIGHT
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 12KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 211159
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS DISCUSSED IN THE MAIN DIATRIBE BELOW...HOURLY TEMP TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A PAIN THIS MORNING AS MANY AIRPORT SITES CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE SEVERAL DEGREES IN A SHORT TIME IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY
SUBTLE COUPLING/DECOUPLING OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS LIGHT
BREEZES COME AND GO. IN GENERAL THOUGH...MOST OF THE CWA (WITH THE
INTERESTING EXCEPTION OF THE AIRPORT SENSORS AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS) HAVE BOTTOMED OUT A BIT COLDER THAN EXPECTED
SEVERAL HOURS AGO...AND ACTUAL LOWS FOR MOST OF THE CWA WILL
OFFICIALLY GO DOWN IN THE 38-45 RANGE MOST AREAS...AND EVEN AS
BRIEFLY COLD AS 36 AT ORD. OTHERWISE...AS WAS SUSPECTED ANY KIND
OF MENTIONABLE FOG HAS BEEN A NON-ISSUE LOCALLY...AND ALTHOUGH
PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING JUST TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER
IT BECOMES WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO APPRECIABLY AFFECT SKY COVER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUES/QUESTIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVE 1)
TO WHAT EXTENT (IF MUCH OF ANY) WILL A LOWER STRATUS DECK POSSIBLY
AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TODAY AND INTERRUPT
AN OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...2) TO WHAT EXTENT MIGHT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT BAY. THE SHORT ANSWER TO
NUMBER 1 IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS OPTIMISTICALLY GEARED
TOWARD A NO-WORSE-THAN- PARTLY CLOUDY DAY AS A WHOLE AND REGARDING
NUMBER 2...CAME VERY CLOSE TO TOSSING A GENERIC PATCHY FOG MENTION
INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT OPTED AGAINST IT FOR NOW
AND WILL GIVE NEXT FEW SHIFTS ANOTHER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
REASONS OUTLINED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A MILD AND DRY 24 HOURS (ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THIS EVENING) WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY BEING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AT 0830Z/330AM...SKIES ARE
ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE CWA-WIDE...WITH 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
INDICATING ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF STRATUS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN KS BUT STILL WELL-SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...08Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES THE CWA JUST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A BROAD RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY...BUT
WITH THIS RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO KEEP BREEZES IN
THE NEAR-CALM TO GENERALLY LESS-THAN-6 MPH FROM THE SOUTH VARIETY.
AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE CLEAR SKY/SLIGHTLY VARIABLE BREEZE
REGIMES...TEMPS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND RATHER RANDOMLY...WITH THE
LATEST OBS INDICATING A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 TO NEAR-50 ACROSS THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST HAVE EVEN
TOUCHED THE UPPER 30S. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...MOST PLACES
SHOULD END UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 39-46 RANGE BUT
WITH SOME WARMER EXCEPTIONS VERY POSSIBLE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCENE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS
THAT THE CWA STILL LIES UNDER A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH-
SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART OF THE NATION...ALTHOUGH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY-BUT-SURELY APPROACHING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE NV/ID BORDER AREA AND OBVIOUSLY WILL PLAY A
LARGER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR WED DAY-NIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
LONG TERM BELOW.

SWITCHING GEARS TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST AND STARTING WITH
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS HINTED IN THE UPDATE DISCUSSION A FEW
HOURS AGO HAVE OPTED TO OFFICIALLY PULL THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES (MAINLY KS)...AS CURRENT OBS AND
SHORT-TERM VSBY PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP13/HRRR STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT
ANY FOG WORTH MENTIONING SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST 50-75 MILES
SOUTH/ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS MORE
SO INTO THE MID-40S ARE FOCUSED.

GETTING PAST SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS...AS EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL
ACTUALLY BE SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY RETURNING TO
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AS
FORCING REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. THIS IS LARGELY IN PART BECAUSE THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE SLOWLY-
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS...AND EVEN BY DAY/S END THE MAIN WESTERN
CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ONLY PROGGED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
MT/WESTERN WY AREA. AT THE SURFACE TODAY...A GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A CLASSIC HIGH
PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOWARD MID-DAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BREEZES REALLY AMOUNT TO MUCH. ONCE THEY KICK
IN...SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND 15-20 MPH IN WESTERN ZONES WITH TYPICALLY HIGHER
GUSTS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH ABOVE SUSTAINED. AS EARLIER TOUCHED
ON...THE MAIN CAVEAT TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH SATURATION
WILL TAKE PLACE TO DRIVE AT LEAST A LOCALIZED ZONE OF PASSING
THICKER LOWER STRATUS INTO ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...OR
WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING WILL BE PRESENT TO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
STRATUS AS NO-WORSE-THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE. THERE ARE SOME MIXED
MESSAGES ON THIS...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW THE SKY COVER FORECAST
LEANS OPTIMISTIC ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA WITH
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER AT ALL ANTICIPATED THERE. BASED ON THE
CURRENT SKY COVER ASSUMPTIONS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING FOR GENERALLY MID-70S
MOST AREAS AND MAYBE SOME UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST (ASSUMING OF COURSE
THAT SKY COVER DOESN/T END UP BEING MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT). ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT MUGGY BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS TODAY ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-40S TO
MID-5OS RANGE (HIGHEST SOUTHWEST).

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...KEPT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VOID
OF ANY RAIN MENTION...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST POINT OUT THAT "SILENT"
5-10 PERCENT POPS ARE INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA POST-
MIDNIGHT AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGES OF A LOW-MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM
PRESENT IN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER THAT SUPPOSE A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS CANNOT BE 100 PERCENT RULED OUT. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY) STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT ANY LIMITED COVERAGE OF LATE
NIGHT RAIN WOULD FOCUS EITHER NORTHEAST AND/OR ESPECIALLY SLIGHTLY
WEST OF THE CWA WITHIN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB. IN THE LARGER
SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...THE LEADING EDGES OF IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING WAVE REACHES WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS
BY NIGHTS END...BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK LOCALLY AS
THE MAIN VORT MAX WITH THE SYSTEM STILL COMES NO CLOSER THAN
EASTERN MT/WY DURING THIS TIME. AS FOR SURFACE BREEZES
TONIGHT...THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MIXING INTO A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES FAIRLY STEADY MOST OF THE
NIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. THESE STEADY BREEZES ARGUE FAIRLY
CONVINCINGLY AGAINST SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES...BUT NEXT FEW SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING A TOKEN PATCHY FOG MENTION AS
NEIGHBORING OFFICES GLD/DDC HAVE ALREADY DONE IF IT APPEARS THE
NAM AND ASSOCIATED SREF/MET GUIDANCE VISIBILITY END UP BEING ONTO
SOMETHING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS-BASED MAV GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
DOWNPLAYS FOG POTENTIAL. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE LATEST 03Z SREF
PROBABILITY-OF-VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES PRODUCT IS ONLY MODESTLY-
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG. AT ANY RATE...EVEN IF FOG IS HELD TO A MINIMUM
AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THERE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT EITHER OF THE LOWER STRATUS AND/OR HIGHER CIRRUS
VARIETY. THE COMBO OF INCREASED MOISTURE...STEADY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSURES A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE ONGOING
ONE...AND ACTUALLY NUDGED UP FORECAST LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 1-3
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS IN MOST LOCATIONS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA
INTO THE 53-56 RANGE WHICH IS SOLIDLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AT LEAST INTO
THE 70S.

MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH A NOTABLE EXCEPTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE
AND SFC TROUGH TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE RAIN
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
FORM ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS. THE
FORCING WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL SLIDE
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A QUICK SEVERAL HOURS OF RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MORE WIDESPREAD BAND OF
GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND
CONSEQUENTLY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE OUT BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.50 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WE ARE CENTERED RIGHT BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80. THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS FRIDAY
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE A COLD FRONT LOCATED EITHER OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OR NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN COOLER
WEATHER POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE
PASSED SOUTHEAST OF US BY THAT TIME. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A
SUPERBLEND OF MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATES MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS...VARIOUS QUESTION MARKS CROP UP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT...SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A LOW CEILING OF AT LEAST MVFR LEVEL COULD SETTLE IN ALONG WITH
MAYBE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL...WHILE OTHER MODEL/GUIDANCE
SETS ARE LESS BULLISH ON BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTIMISTIC BY ONLY
SUGGESTING A SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD MENTION AND A LOW-END VFR
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS COULD TREND MORE PESSIMISTIC IN LATER
FORECASTS. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERED INTRODUCING AT LEAST A 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER
06Z...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL BULK SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT IS CURRENTLY
ONLY EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30KT...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MARGINAL
FOR A FORMAL LLWS INCLUSION. AGAIN...LATER FORECASTS CAN TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THESE TRENDS. AS FOR SURFACE WIND TRENDS...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
BREEZY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGE AROUND 15KT
WITH GUSTS 20+KT...WITH THESE WINDS THEN DECREASING A BIT TONIGHT
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 12KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 211159
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS DISCUSSED IN THE MAIN DIATRIBE BELOW...HOURLY TEMP TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A PAIN THIS MORNING AS MANY AIRPORT SITES CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE SEVERAL DEGREES IN A SHORT TIME IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY
SUBTLE COUPLING/DECOUPLING OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS LIGHT
BREEZES COME AND GO. IN GENERAL THOUGH...MOST OF THE CWA (WITH THE
INTERESTING EXCEPTION OF THE AIRPORT SENSORS AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS) HAVE BOTTOMED OUT A BIT COLDER THAN EXPECTED
SEVERAL HOURS AGO...AND ACTUAL LOWS FOR MOST OF THE CWA WILL
OFFICIALLY GO DOWN IN THE 38-45 RANGE MOST AREAS...AND EVEN AS
BRIEFLY COLD AS 36 AT ORD. OTHERWISE...AS WAS SUSPECTED ANY KIND
OF MENTIONABLE FOG HAS BEEN A NON-ISSUE LOCALLY...AND ALTHOUGH
PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING JUST TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER
IT BECOMES WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO APPRECIABLY AFFECT SKY COVER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUES/QUESTIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVE 1)
TO WHAT EXTENT (IF MUCH OF ANY) WILL A LOWER STRATUS DECK POSSIBLY
AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TODAY AND INTERRUPT
AN OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...2) TO WHAT EXTENT MIGHT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT BAY. THE SHORT ANSWER TO
NUMBER 1 IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS OPTIMISTICALLY GEARED
TOWARD A NO-WORSE-THAN- PARTLY CLOUDY DAY AS A WHOLE AND REGARDING
NUMBER 2...CAME VERY CLOSE TO TOSSING A GENERIC PATCHY FOG MENTION
INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT OPTED AGAINST IT FOR NOW
AND WILL GIVE NEXT FEW SHIFTS ANOTHER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
REASONS OUTLINED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A MILD AND DRY 24 HOURS (ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THIS EVENING) WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY BEING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AT 0830Z/330AM...SKIES ARE
ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE CWA-WIDE...WITH 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
INDICATING ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF STRATUS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN KS BUT STILL WELL-SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...08Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES THE CWA JUST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A BROAD RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY...BUT
WITH THIS RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO KEEP BREEZES IN
THE NEAR-CALM TO GENERALLY LESS-THAN-6 MPH FROM THE SOUTH VARIETY.
AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE CLEAR SKY/SLIGHTLY VARIABLE BREEZE
REGIMES...TEMPS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND RATHER RANDOMLY...WITH THE
LATEST OBS INDICATING A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 TO NEAR-50 ACROSS THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST HAVE EVEN
TOUCHED THE UPPER 30S. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...MOST PLACES
SHOULD END UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 39-46 RANGE BUT
WITH SOME WARMER EXCEPTIONS VERY POSSIBLE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCENE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS
THAT THE CWA STILL LIES UNDER A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH-
SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART OF THE NATION...ALTHOUGH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY-BUT-SURELY APPROACHING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE NV/ID BORDER AREA AND OBVIOUSLY WILL PLAY A
LARGER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR WED DAY-NIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
LONG TERM BELOW.

SWITCHING GEARS TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST AND STARTING WITH
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS HINTED IN THE UPDATE DISCUSSION A FEW
HOURS AGO HAVE OPTED TO OFFICIALLY PULL THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES (MAINLY KS)...AS CURRENT OBS AND
SHORT-TERM VSBY PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP13/HRRR STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT
ANY FOG WORTH MENTIONING SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST 50-75 MILES
SOUTH/ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS MORE
SO INTO THE MID-40S ARE FOCUSED.

GETTING PAST SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS...AS EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL
ACTUALLY BE SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY RETURNING TO
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AS
FORCING REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. THIS IS LARGELY IN PART BECAUSE THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE SLOWLY-
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS...AND EVEN BY DAY/S END THE MAIN WESTERN
CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ONLY PROGGED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
MT/WESTERN WY AREA. AT THE SURFACE TODAY...A GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A CLASSIC HIGH
PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOWARD MID-DAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BREEZES REALLY AMOUNT TO MUCH. ONCE THEY KICK
IN...SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND 15-20 MPH IN WESTERN ZONES WITH TYPICALLY HIGHER
GUSTS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH ABOVE SUSTAINED. AS EARLIER TOUCHED
ON...THE MAIN CAVEAT TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH SATURATION
WILL TAKE PLACE TO DRIVE AT LEAST A LOCALIZED ZONE OF PASSING
THICKER LOWER STRATUS INTO ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...OR
WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING WILL BE PRESENT TO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
STRATUS AS NO-WORSE-THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE. THERE ARE SOME MIXED
MESSAGES ON THIS...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW THE SKY COVER FORECAST
LEANS OPTIMISTIC ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA WITH
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER AT ALL ANTICIPATED THERE. BASED ON THE
CURRENT SKY COVER ASSUMPTIONS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING FOR GENERALLY MID-70S
MOST AREAS AND MAYBE SOME UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST (ASSUMING OF COURSE
THAT SKY COVER DOESN/T END UP BEING MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT). ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT MUGGY BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS TODAY ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-40S TO
MID-5OS RANGE (HIGHEST SOUTHWEST).

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...KEPT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VOID
OF ANY RAIN MENTION...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST POINT OUT THAT "SILENT"
5-10 PERCENT POPS ARE INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA POST-
MIDNIGHT AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGES OF A LOW-MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM
PRESENT IN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER THAT SUPPOSE A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS CANNOT BE 100 PERCENT RULED OUT. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY) STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT ANY LIMITED COVERAGE OF LATE
NIGHT RAIN WOULD FOCUS EITHER NORTHEAST AND/OR ESPECIALLY SLIGHTLY
WEST OF THE CWA WITHIN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB. IN THE LARGER
SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...THE LEADING EDGES OF IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING WAVE REACHES WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS
BY NIGHTS END...BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK LOCALLY AS
THE MAIN VORT MAX WITH THE SYSTEM STILL COMES NO CLOSER THAN
EASTERN MT/WY DURING THIS TIME. AS FOR SURFACE BREEZES
TONIGHT...THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MIXING INTO A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES FAIRLY STEADY MOST OF THE
NIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. THESE STEADY BREEZES ARGUE FAIRLY
CONVINCINGLY AGAINST SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES...BUT NEXT FEW SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING A TOKEN PATCHY FOG MENTION AS
NEIGHBORING OFFICES GLD/DDC HAVE ALREADY DONE IF IT APPEARS THE
NAM AND ASSOCIATED SREF/MET GUIDANCE VISIBILITY END UP BEING ONTO
SOMETHING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS-BASED MAV GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
DOWNPLAYS FOG POTENTIAL. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE LATEST 03Z SREF
PROBABILITY-OF-VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES PRODUCT IS ONLY MODESTLY-
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG. AT ANY RATE...EVEN IF FOG IS HELD TO A MINIMUM
AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THERE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT EITHER OF THE LOWER STRATUS AND/OR HIGHER CIRRUS
VARIETY. THE COMBO OF INCREASED MOISTURE...STEADY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSURES A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE ONGOING
ONE...AND ACTUALLY NUDGED UP FORECAST LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 1-3
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS IN MOST LOCATIONS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA
INTO THE 53-56 RANGE WHICH IS SOLIDLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AT LEAST INTO
THE 70S.

MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH A NOTABLE EXCEPTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE
AND SFC TROUGH TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE RAIN
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
FORM ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS. THE
FORCING WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL SLIDE
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A QUICK SEVERAL HOURS OF RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MORE WIDESPREAD BAND OF
GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND
CONSEQUENTLY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE OUT BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.50 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WE ARE CENTERED RIGHT BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80. THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS FRIDAY
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE A COLD FRONT LOCATED EITHER OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OR NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN COOLER
WEATHER POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE
PASSED SOUTHEAST OF US BY THAT TIME. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A
SUPERBLEND OF MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATES MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS...VARIOUS QUESTION MARKS CROP UP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT...SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A LOW CEILING OF AT LEAST MVFR LEVEL COULD SETTLE IN ALONG WITH
MAYBE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL...WHILE OTHER MODEL/GUIDANCE
SETS ARE LESS BULLISH ON BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTIMISTIC BY ONLY
SUGGESTING A SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD MENTION AND A LOW-END VFR
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS COULD TREND MORE PESSIMISTIC IN LATER
FORECASTS. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERED INTRODUCING AT LEAST A 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER
06Z...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL BULK SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT IS CURRENTLY
ONLY EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30KT...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MARGINAL
FOR A FORMAL LLWS INCLUSION. AGAIN...LATER FORECASTS CAN TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THESE TRENDS. AS FOR SURFACE WIND TRENDS...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
BREEZY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGE AROUND 15KT
WITH GUSTS 20+KT...WITH THESE WINDS THEN DECREASING A BIT TONIGHT
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 12KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 211159
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS DISCUSSED IN THE MAIN DIATRIBE BELOW...HOURLY TEMP TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A PAIN THIS MORNING AS MANY AIRPORT SITES CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE SEVERAL DEGREES IN A SHORT TIME IN RESPONSE TO FAIRLY
SUBTLE COUPLING/DECOUPLING OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS LIGHT
BREEZES COME AND GO. IN GENERAL THOUGH...MOST OF THE CWA (WITH THE
INTERESTING EXCEPTION OF THE AIRPORT SENSORS AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS) HAVE BOTTOMED OUT A BIT COLDER THAN EXPECTED
SEVERAL HOURS AGO...AND ACTUAL LOWS FOR MOST OF THE CWA WILL
OFFICIALLY GO DOWN IN THE 38-45 RANGE MOST AREAS...AND EVEN AS
BRIEFLY COLD AS 36 AT ORD. OTHERWISE...AS WAS SUSPECTED ANY KIND
OF MENTIONABLE FOG HAS BEEN A NON-ISSUE LOCALLY...AND ALTHOUGH
PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING JUST TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER
IT BECOMES WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO APPRECIABLY AFFECT SKY COVER AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE PRIMARY ISSUES/QUESTIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVE 1)
TO WHAT EXTENT (IF MUCH OF ANY) WILL A LOWER STRATUS DECK POSSIBLY
AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TODAY AND INTERRUPT
AN OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...2) TO WHAT EXTENT MIGHT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES SHOULD KEEP
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT BAY. THE SHORT ANSWER TO
NUMBER 1 IS THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS OPTIMISTICALLY GEARED
TOWARD A NO-WORSE-THAN- PARTLY CLOUDY DAY AS A WHOLE AND REGARDING
NUMBER 2...CAME VERY CLOSE TO TOSSING A GENERIC PATCHY FOG MENTION
INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT OPTED AGAINST IT FOR NOW
AND WILL GIVE NEXT FEW SHIFTS ANOTHER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
REASONS OUTLINED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A MILD AND DRY 24 HOURS (ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THIS EVENING) WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY BEING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AT 0830Z/330AM...SKIES ARE
ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE CWA-WIDE...WITH 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
INDICATING ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF STRATUS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN KS BUT STILL WELL-SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...08Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES THE CWA JUST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A BROAD RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY...BUT
WITH THIS RIDGE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO KEEP BREEZES IN
THE NEAR-CALM TO GENERALLY LESS-THAN-6 MPH FROM THE SOUTH VARIETY.
AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE CLEAR SKY/SLIGHTLY VARIABLE BREEZE
REGIMES...TEMPS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND RATHER RANDOMLY...WITH THE
LATEST OBS INDICATING A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 TO NEAR-50 ACROSS THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST HAVE EVEN
TOUCHED THE UPPER 30S. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...MOST PLACES
SHOULD END UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 39-46 RANGE BUT
WITH SOME WARMER EXCEPTIONS VERY POSSIBLE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCENE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS
THAT THE CWA STILL LIES UNDER A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH-
SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART OF THE NATION...ALTHOUGH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY-BUT-SURELY APPROACHING THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE NV/ID BORDER AREA AND OBVIOUSLY WILL PLAY A
LARGER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR WED DAY-NIGHT AS DESCRIBED IN THE
LONG TERM BELOW.

SWITCHING GEARS TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST AND STARTING WITH
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS HINTED IN THE UPDATE DISCUSSION A FEW
HOURS AGO HAVE OPTED TO OFFICIALLY PULL THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES (MAINLY KS)...AS CURRENT OBS AND
SHORT-TERM VSBY PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP13/HRRR STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT
ANY FOG WORTH MENTIONING SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST 50-75 MILES
SOUTH/ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS MORE
SO INTO THE MID-40S ARE FOCUSED.

GETTING PAST SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS...AS EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL
ACTUALLY BE SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY RETURNING TO
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AS
FORCING REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. THIS IS LARGELY IN PART BECAUSE THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE SLOWLY-
DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS...AND EVEN BY DAY/S END THE MAIN WESTERN
CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ONLY PROGGED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
MT/WESTERN WY AREA. AT THE SURFACE TODAY...A GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A CLASSIC HIGH
PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOWARD MID-DAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BREEZES REALLY AMOUNT TO MUCH. ONCE THEY KICK
IN...SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND 15-20 MPH IN WESTERN ZONES WITH TYPICALLY HIGHER
GUSTS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH ABOVE SUSTAINED. AS EARLIER TOUCHED
ON...THE MAIN CAVEAT TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH SATURATION
WILL TAKE PLACE TO DRIVE AT LEAST A LOCALIZED ZONE OF PASSING
THICKER LOWER STRATUS INTO ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...OR
WHETHER ENOUGH MIXING WILL BE PRESENT TO KEEP ANY POTENTIAL
STRATUS AS NO-WORSE-THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE. THERE ARE SOME MIXED
MESSAGES ON THIS...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW THE SKY COVER FORECAST
LEANS OPTIMISTIC ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA WITH
VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER AT ALL ANTICIPATED THERE. BASED ON THE
CURRENT SKY COVER ASSUMPTIONS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING FOR GENERALLY MID-70S
MOST AREAS AND MAYBE SOME UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST (ASSUMING OF COURSE
THAT SKY COVER DOESN/T END UP BEING MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN
CURRENTLY THOUGHT). ALTHOUGH NOT ALL THAT MUGGY BY ANY
MEANS...DEWPOINTS TODAY ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-40S TO
MID-5OS RANGE (HIGHEST SOUTHWEST).

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...KEPT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VOID
OF ANY RAIN MENTION...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST POINT OUT THAT "SILENT"
5-10 PERCENT POPS ARE INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA POST-
MIDNIGHT AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGES OF A LOW-MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM
PRESENT IN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR LAYER THAT SUPPOSE A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS CANNOT BE 100 PERCENT RULED OUT. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...MODEL CONSENSUS (INCLUDING 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY) STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT ANY LIMITED COVERAGE OF LATE
NIGHT RAIN WOULD FOCUS EITHER NORTHEAST AND/OR ESPECIALLY SLIGHTLY
WEST OF THE CWA WITHIN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB. IN THE LARGER
SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...THE LEADING EDGES OF IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING WAVE REACHES WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS
BY NIGHTS END...BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK LOCALLY AS
THE MAIN VORT MAX WITH THE SYSTEM STILL COMES NO CLOSER THAN
EASTERN MT/WY DURING THIS TIME. AS FOR SURFACE BREEZES
TONIGHT...THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME LIMITED MIXING INTO A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES FAIRLY STEADY MOST OF THE
NIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. THESE STEADY BREEZES ARGUE FAIRLY
CONVINCINGLY AGAINST SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES...BUT NEXT FEW SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING A TOKEN PATCHY FOG MENTION AS
NEIGHBORING OFFICES GLD/DDC HAVE ALREADY DONE IF IT APPEARS THE
NAM AND ASSOCIATED SREF/MET GUIDANCE VISIBILITY END UP BEING ONTO
SOMETHING...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS-BASED MAV GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
DOWNPLAYS FOG POTENTIAL. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE LATEST 03Z SREF
PROBABILITY-OF-VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES PRODUCT IS ONLY MODESTLY-
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG. AT ANY RATE...EVEN IF FOG IS HELD TO A MINIMUM
AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THERE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT EITHER OF THE LOWER STRATUS AND/OR HIGHER CIRRUS
VARIETY. THE COMBO OF INCREASED MOISTURE...STEADY BREEZES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSURES A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE ONGOING
ONE...AND ACTUALLY NUDGED UP FORECAST LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 1-3
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS IN MOST LOCATIONS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA
INTO THE 53-56 RANGE WHICH IS SOLIDLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
60S...WHILE HIGHS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AT LEAST INTO
THE 70S.

MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH A NOTABLE EXCEPTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE
AND SFC TROUGH TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE RAIN
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
FORM ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS. THE
FORCING WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL SLIDE
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A QUICK SEVERAL HOURS OF RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
WITH MLCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MORE WIDESPREAD BAND OF
GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND
CONSEQUENTLY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE OUT BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.50 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE PLAINS RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WE ARE CENTERED RIGHT BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RESULTING IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80. THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS FRIDAY
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE A COLD FRONT LOCATED EITHER OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA OR NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN COOLER
WEATHER POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE
PASSED SOUTHEAST OF US BY THAT TIME. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT A
SUPERBLEND OF MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATES MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 12-18 HOURS OF THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS...VARIOUS QUESTION MARKS CROP UP LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TO MAKE A LONG STORY SHORT...SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A LOW CEILING OF AT LEAST MVFR LEVEL COULD SETTLE IN ALONG WITH
MAYBE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL...WHILE OTHER MODEL/GUIDANCE
SETS ARE LESS BULLISH ON BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTIMISTIC BY ONLY
SUGGESTING A SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD MENTION AND A LOW-END VFR
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS COULD TREND MORE PESSIMISTIC IN LATER
FORECASTS. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERED INTRODUCING AT LEAST A 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER
06Z...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL BULK SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT IS CURRENTLY
ONLY EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30KT...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MARGINAL
FOR A FORMAL LLWS INCLUSION. AGAIN...LATER FORECASTS CAN TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THESE TRENDS. AS FOR SURFACE WIND TRENDS...LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZES RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
BREEZY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGE AROUND 15KT
WITH GUSTS 20+KT...WITH THESE WINDS THEN DECREASING A BIT TONIGHT
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 12KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KLBF 211122
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIRCRAFT WIND REPORTS SHOW THE TRAJECTORY
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL RADAR WIND
PROFILERS SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE 20-25MM IS INDICATED. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE
07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH DEEPENS...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WIND APPROACHING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 305-310K
(800-650MB) LAYER FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND 09Z AND THEN TOWARD
12Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION BY
09Z AT LEAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY IS LOWER IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND OTHER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. BLENDING THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEMREG...THE
NAM12...THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS. STILL...THE FORCING COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06Z NORTH.
WITH 875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN 0C...ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN WITH
ANOMALOUS WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
THEY HAVE MOVED TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AT 12Z THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS /BELOW 800MB/ THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING...WITH
OMEGA SIGNAL OF 5-10 UBAR/S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
STRONGEST OMEGA SIGNAL IS SEEN IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN IT
SUBSIDES EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAS SEEING REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH PICK BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SIGNAL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES IN THE MORNING FELT LIKE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...THE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA/INSTABILITY ALL INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL WOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY MOSTLY OCCUR WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OR JUST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
PUSH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES BEYOND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THINK ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT
SOONER.

LOOKING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL INDUCE THE GOOD STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE.
UNDER THE RIDGE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH CLOSER TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THURSDAY/S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS THE WARM AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN...BUT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C OVER
NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE DON/T SEE ANYTHING PROHIBITING THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ALSO...JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...LOOKED AT ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS
WHICH SHOWED 500MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING OF A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
THE INCREASED LIFT MOVING IN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. EITHER WAY...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHAT SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE 5000 FEET OR HIGHER. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

MEANWHILE...WIND WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT LATE THIS MORNING AS IT
INCREASES TO 15KT OR GREATER. BY 18Z IN MOST AREAS...IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE 170-190 AT 15-18G22-28KT. OTHERWISE...FOR TODAY...YOU CAN
EXPECT CEILING AND VISIBILITY TO BE UNLIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 211122
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIRCRAFT WIND REPORTS SHOW THE TRAJECTORY
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL RADAR WIND
PROFILERS SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE 20-25MM IS INDICATED. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE
07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH DEEPENS...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WIND APPROACHING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 305-310K
(800-650MB) LAYER FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND 09Z AND THEN TOWARD
12Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION BY
09Z AT LEAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY IS LOWER IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND OTHER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. BLENDING THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEMREG...THE
NAM12...THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS. STILL...THE FORCING COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06Z NORTH.
WITH 875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN 0C...ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN WITH
ANOMALOUS WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
THEY HAVE MOVED TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AT 12Z THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS /BELOW 800MB/ THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING...WITH
OMEGA SIGNAL OF 5-10 UBAR/S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
STRONGEST OMEGA SIGNAL IS SEEN IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN IT
SUBSIDES EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAS SEEING REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH PICK BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SIGNAL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES IN THE MORNING FELT LIKE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...THE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA/INSTABILITY ALL INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL WOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY MOSTLY OCCUR WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OR JUST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
PUSH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES BEYOND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THINK ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT
SOONER.

LOOKING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL INDUCE THE GOOD STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE.
UNDER THE RIDGE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH CLOSER TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THURSDAY/S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS THE WARM AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN...BUT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C OVER
NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE DON/T SEE ANYTHING PROHIBITING THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ALSO...JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...LOOKED AT ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS
WHICH SHOWED 500MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING OF A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
THE INCREASED LIFT MOVING IN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. EITHER WAY...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHAT SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE 5000 FEET OR HIGHER. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

MEANWHILE...WIND WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT LATE THIS MORNING AS IT
INCREASES TO 15KT OR GREATER. BY 18Z IN MOST AREAS...IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE 170-190 AT 15-18G22-28KT. OTHERWISE...FOR TODAY...YOU CAN
EXPECT CEILING AND VISIBILITY TO BE UNLIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 211122
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIRCRAFT WIND REPORTS SHOW THE TRAJECTORY
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL RADAR WIND
PROFILERS SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE 20-25MM IS INDICATED. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE
07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH DEEPENS...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WIND APPROACHING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 305-310K
(800-650MB) LAYER FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND 09Z AND THEN TOWARD
12Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION BY
09Z AT LEAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY IS LOWER IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND OTHER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. BLENDING THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEMREG...THE
NAM12...THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS. STILL...THE FORCING COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06Z NORTH.
WITH 875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN 0C...ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN WITH
ANOMALOUS WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
THEY HAVE MOVED TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AT 12Z THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS /BELOW 800MB/ THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING...WITH
OMEGA SIGNAL OF 5-10 UBAR/S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
STRONGEST OMEGA SIGNAL IS SEEN IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN IT
SUBSIDES EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAS SEEING REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH PICK BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SIGNAL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES IN THE MORNING FELT LIKE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...THE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA/INSTABILITY ALL INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL WOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY MOSTLY OCCUR WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OR JUST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
PUSH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES BEYOND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THINK ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT
SOONER.

LOOKING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL INDUCE THE GOOD STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE.
UNDER THE RIDGE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH CLOSER TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THURSDAY/S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS THE WARM AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN...BUT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C OVER
NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE DON/T SEE ANYTHING PROHIBITING THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ALSO...JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...LOOKED AT ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS
WHICH SHOWED 500MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING OF A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
THE INCREASED LIFT MOVING IN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. EITHER WAY...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHAT SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE 5000 FEET OR HIGHER. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

MEANWHILE...WIND WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT LATE THIS MORNING AS IT
INCREASES TO 15KT OR GREATER. BY 18Z IN MOST AREAS...IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE 170-190 AT 15-18G22-28KT. OTHERWISE...FOR TODAY...YOU CAN
EXPECT CEILING AND VISIBILITY TO BE UNLIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 211122
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIRCRAFT WIND REPORTS SHOW THE TRAJECTORY
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL RADAR WIND
PROFILERS SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE 20-25MM IS INDICATED. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE
07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH DEEPENS...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WIND APPROACHING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 305-310K
(800-650MB) LAYER FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND 09Z AND THEN TOWARD
12Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION BY
09Z AT LEAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY IS LOWER IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND OTHER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. BLENDING THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEMREG...THE
NAM12...THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS. STILL...THE FORCING COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06Z NORTH.
WITH 875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN 0C...ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN WITH
ANOMALOUS WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
THEY HAVE MOVED TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AT 12Z THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS /BELOW 800MB/ THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING...WITH
OMEGA SIGNAL OF 5-10 UBAR/S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
STRONGEST OMEGA SIGNAL IS SEEN IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN IT
SUBSIDES EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAS SEEING REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH PICK BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SIGNAL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES IN THE MORNING FELT LIKE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...THE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA/INSTABILITY ALL INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL WOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY MOSTLY OCCUR WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OR JUST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
PUSH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES BEYOND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THINK ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT
SOONER.

LOOKING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL INDUCE THE GOOD STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE.
UNDER THE RIDGE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH CLOSER TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THURSDAY/S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS THE WARM AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN...BUT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C OVER
NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE DON/T SEE ANYTHING PROHIBITING THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ALSO...JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...LOOKED AT ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS
WHICH SHOWED 500MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING OF A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
THE INCREASED LIFT MOVING IN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. EITHER WAY...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHAT SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE 5000 FEET OR HIGHER. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

MEANWHILE...WIND WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT LATE THIS MORNING AS IT
INCREASES TO 15KT OR GREATER. BY 18Z IN MOST AREAS...IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE 170-190 AT 15-18G22-28KT. OTHERWISE...FOR TODAY...YOU CAN
EXPECT CEILING AND VISIBILITY TO BE UNLIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 211122
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIRCRAFT WIND REPORTS SHOW THE TRAJECTORY
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL RADAR WIND
PROFILERS SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE 20-25MM IS INDICATED. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE
07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH DEEPENS...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WIND APPROACHING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 305-310K
(800-650MB) LAYER FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND 09Z AND THEN TOWARD
12Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION BY
09Z AT LEAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY IS LOWER IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND OTHER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. BLENDING THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEMREG...THE
NAM12...THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS. STILL...THE FORCING COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06Z NORTH.
WITH 875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN 0C...ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN WITH
ANOMALOUS WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
THEY HAVE MOVED TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AT 12Z THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS /BELOW 800MB/ THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING...WITH
OMEGA SIGNAL OF 5-10 UBAR/S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
STRONGEST OMEGA SIGNAL IS SEEN IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN IT
SUBSIDES EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAS SEEING REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH PICK BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SIGNAL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES IN THE MORNING FELT LIKE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...THE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA/INSTABILITY ALL INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL WOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY MOSTLY OCCUR WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OR JUST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
PUSH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES BEYOND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THINK ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT
SOONER.

LOOKING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL INDUCE THE GOOD STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE.
UNDER THE RIDGE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH CLOSER TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THURSDAY/S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS THE WARM AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN...BUT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C OVER
NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE DON/T SEE ANYTHING PROHIBITING THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ALSO...JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...LOOKED AT ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS
WHICH SHOWED 500MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING OF A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
THE INCREASED LIFT MOVING IN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. EITHER WAY...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHAT SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE 5000 FEET OR HIGHER. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

MEANWHILE...WIND WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT LATE THIS MORNING AS IT
INCREASES TO 15KT OR GREATER. BY 18Z IN MOST AREAS...IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE 170-190 AT 15-18G22-28KT. OTHERWISE...FOR TODAY...YOU CAN
EXPECT CEILING AND VISIBILITY TO BE UNLIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KOAX 211115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD AND TIMING OF SYSTEM COMING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
DID CHANGE TO A FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NAM...GFS AND EURO ALL
SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION IN PLACING PRECIP AXIS INTO CENTRAL
IOWA BY 12Z THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE PERIOD. LITTLE COOLING COMING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH UPPER RIDGE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE WEEKEND AND DRY WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
THE GFS AND EURO HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...APPEARS SOME LOW POPS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOULD TREND COOLER AFTER SUNDAY WITH
UPPER TROUGH IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY JUST
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS IN THE 3000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BIT OF FOG AND ISOLD SHRA
OR TSRA...BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY FOG OR PCPN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 211115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD AND TIMING OF SYSTEM COMING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
DID CHANGE TO A FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NAM...GFS AND EURO ALL
SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION IN PLACING PRECIP AXIS INTO CENTRAL
IOWA BY 12Z THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE PERIOD. LITTLE COOLING COMING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH UPPER RIDGE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE WEEKEND AND DRY WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
THE GFS AND EURO HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...APPEARS SOME LOW POPS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOULD TREND COOLER AFTER SUNDAY WITH
UPPER TROUGH IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY JUST
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS IN THE 3000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BIT OF FOG AND ISOLD SHRA
OR TSRA...BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY FOG OR PCPN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 211115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD AND TIMING OF SYSTEM COMING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
DID CHANGE TO A FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NAM...GFS AND EURO ALL
SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION IN PLACING PRECIP AXIS INTO CENTRAL
IOWA BY 12Z THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE PERIOD. LITTLE COOLING COMING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH UPPER RIDGE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE WEEKEND AND DRY WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
THE GFS AND EURO HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...APPEARS SOME LOW POPS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOULD TREND COOLER AFTER SUNDAY WITH
UPPER TROUGH IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY JUST
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS IN THE 3000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BIT OF FOG AND ISOLD SHRA
OR TSRA...BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY FOG OR PCPN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 211115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD AND TIMING OF SYSTEM COMING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
DID CHANGE TO A FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NAM...GFS AND EURO ALL
SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION IN PLACING PRECIP AXIS INTO CENTRAL
IOWA BY 12Z THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE PERIOD. LITTLE COOLING COMING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH UPPER RIDGE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE WEEKEND AND DRY WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
THE GFS AND EURO HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...APPEARS SOME LOW POPS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOULD TREND COOLER AFTER SUNDAY WITH
UPPER TROUGH IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY JUST
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS IN THE 3000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BIT OF FOG AND ISOLD SHRA
OR TSRA...BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY FOG OR PCPN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




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