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000
FXUS63 KGID 310010
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
610 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...THE FIRST DECENT PRECIP EVENT IN WEEKS IS ON DECK AND HAS LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS SNOW AND HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH NW FLOW FROM CANADA
INTO THE ERN USA TROF...AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY CREEP E OF THE
REGION WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
OUR WX WILL BE THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 140 KT JET
ON THE TROPOPAUSE AND THE ASSOCIATED MASS ADJUSTMENTS.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS DEPARTING THE REGION AND WILL HEAD INTO
THE ERN USA WITH RETURN FLOW HERE IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SAG S AND CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. A
WEAK COLORADO LOW WILL ALSO ADVANCE E ACROSS KS SAT NIGHT AND WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR KS CITY AT DAWN SUN.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY AND MILD. TEMPS HAVE RISEN NICELY
DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER. SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
INVADING FROM THE SW. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS FROM GLD/DDC.

WHAT FOLLOWS BELOW ARE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS BASED ON
INTERPRETATION OF AVAILABLE FCST GUIDANCE. PLEASE ALLOW US ROOM
FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THEY WILL BE NECESSARY AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

TONIGHT: THE SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONT BLOSSOMING
INTO A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN AND EXPAND TO THE N. YOU SEE IT ON
RADAR. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT 3
PM...THE COLUMN EVENTUALLY SATURATES. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN S OF I-80.

THIS SHIELD OF PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY WAA/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE JET ENTRANCE REGION.

PRECIP-TYPE ALGORITHMS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST IT IS WARM
ENOUGH TO START AS RAIN...BUT WE HAVE SEEN MULTIPLE RUNS FROM THE
NAM AND ITS 4 KM NEST SUGGEST WETBULB COOLING WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THIS IS A CONCERN. GEARED THE FCST MORE
TOWARD SNOW AFTER 12 AM. IT WILL HAVE TO COME DOWN HARD TO
ACCUMULATE.

SAT: THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL HEAD INTO SE NEB/NE KS BUT SNOW
OR A R/S MIX PROBABLY LINGERS HERE INTO THE MORNING. DO WE GET A
BREAK OR DOES ITS W EDGE KEEP PRECIP GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON? WE
HAVE SEEN INDICATIONS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD COULD EXIT TO THE E
IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ON THIS. IF PRECIP DOES LINGER...
INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY DECREASE.

IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE TO SNOW...IT COULD/WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANOTHER PLAYER
IS PRECIP INTENSITY. IT COULD BE SNOW WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIP
ELEMENTS AND BE A R/S MIX OR RAIN OTHERWISE.

IF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT...HOW MUCH ACCUMULATES INTO
THE MORNING WHERE IT PERSISTS?

FOR NOW...WE HAVE A WIDESPREAD 1-2" IN THE FCST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2" FROM HWY 281 E OVER S-CNTRL NEB. HIGHER AMTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST: WE MAY BE INDICATING TOO MUCH PRECIP
POTENTIAL W AND N OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE AREAS MAY SEE VERY
LITTLE OUT OF THIS.

SAT NIGHT: THE APPROACHING TROF INDUCES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND A
COMMAHEAD BEGINS TO FORM SAT NIGHT. WITH THE MID-LVL LOW CROSSING
THE FCST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW
ACCUM WILL PROBABLY OCCUR N OF I-80 INTO THE SANDHILLS. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COOL THE COLUMN FOR SNOW.

BECOMING WINDY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA.

UNCERTAINTY: PLEASE KEEP IN MIND PART OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THIS IS ALWAYS AN AREA OF GREAT
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE THE CUT-OFF BETWEEN PRECIP-NO PRECIP IS SHARP.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS PRECIP TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE IS VERY MARGINAL
AND PRECIP TYPES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. WE ARE UNABLE TO PINPOINT IF
IT WILL SNOW...AND IF IT DOES HOW LONG IT WILL LAST. IF WE DO GET
AN AREA THAT CHANGES OVER TONIGHT AND SOMEHOW IT REMAINS INTO SAT
MORNING...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SWATH OF UP TO 4 INCHES
FOR PART OF THE FCST AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...GREATEST RISK WOULD BE
S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

PLEASE WATCH FOR FCST UPDATES AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARILY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH
MULTIPLE...QUICK PASSING...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAVING MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. AS A CONSEQUENCE...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATING AROUND NORMAL THANKS TO MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS BEING
STEERED ACROSS THE REGION.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO
BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY MID MORNING...WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUED
MENTION FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WHILE SOME CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...EVEN
SO...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER AND A VERY COLD AIRMASS
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT A COOL AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SPOTS.
ALONG WITH THESE COOL READINGS...EXPECT A FAIRLY STIFF
NORTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL BLUSTERY.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK SUNDAY EVENING
...AND WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED MONDAY MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...WHICH WILL MARK THE
COOLEST MORNING READINGS IN ABOUT 3 WEEKS. THEN...AS THIS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TO START
THE WEEK. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER TO HELP MODIFY
AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT...STILL THINK THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN USHER IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK. WHILE
NOT BITTERLY COLD...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. EVEN
THOUGH THIS COOLER AIRMASS SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL
MODELED...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE A LITTLE MORE IFFY AS THE
EC KEEPS ANY PRECIP MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE GFS IS
TRANSITIONING A LIGHT FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SNOW GIVEN BY MODEL BLEND DID NOT NEED TO BE TAMPERED
WITH FOR THE TIME BEING. WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD MARK A REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
UNSURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW...AND THIS
COULD DEPEND ON HOW HEAVY PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE. ANY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE SNOW...WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
BEING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND NOT EXPECTING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY ANY MEANS. LOWERING CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AT KEAR A GOOD COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE KGRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 310010
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
610 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...THE FIRST DECENT PRECIP EVENT IN WEEKS IS ON DECK AND HAS LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS SNOW AND HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH NW FLOW FROM CANADA
INTO THE ERN USA TROF...AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY CREEP E OF THE
REGION WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
OUR WX WILL BE THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 140 KT JET
ON THE TROPOPAUSE AND THE ASSOCIATED MASS ADJUSTMENTS.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS DEPARTING THE REGION AND WILL HEAD INTO
THE ERN USA WITH RETURN FLOW HERE IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SAG S AND CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. A
WEAK COLORADO LOW WILL ALSO ADVANCE E ACROSS KS SAT NIGHT AND WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR KS CITY AT DAWN SUN.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY AND MILD. TEMPS HAVE RISEN NICELY
DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER. SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
INVADING FROM THE SW. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS FROM GLD/DDC.

WHAT FOLLOWS BELOW ARE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS BASED ON
INTERPRETATION OF AVAILABLE FCST GUIDANCE. PLEASE ALLOW US ROOM
FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THEY WILL BE NECESSARY AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

TONIGHT: THE SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONT BLOSSOMING
INTO A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN AND EXPAND TO THE N. YOU SEE IT ON
RADAR. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT 3
PM...THE COLUMN EVENTUALLY SATURATES. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN S OF I-80.

THIS SHIELD OF PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY WAA/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE JET ENTRANCE REGION.

PRECIP-TYPE ALGORITHMS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST IT IS WARM
ENOUGH TO START AS RAIN...BUT WE HAVE SEEN MULTIPLE RUNS FROM THE
NAM AND ITS 4 KM NEST SUGGEST WETBULB COOLING WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THIS IS A CONCERN. GEARED THE FCST MORE
TOWARD SNOW AFTER 12 AM. IT WILL HAVE TO COME DOWN HARD TO
ACCUMULATE.

SAT: THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL HEAD INTO SE NEB/NE KS BUT SNOW
OR A R/S MIX PROBABLY LINGERS HERE INTO THE MORNING. DO WE GET A
BREAK OR DOES ITS W EDGE KEEP PRECIP GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON? WE
HAVE SEEN INDICATIONS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD COULD EXIT TO THE E
IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ON THIS. IF PRECIP DOES LINGER...
INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY DECREASE.

IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE TO SNOW...IT COULD/WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANOTHER PLAYER
IS PRECIP INTENSITY. IT COULD BE SNOW WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIP
ELEMENTS AND BE A R/S MIX OR RAIN OTHERWISE.

IF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT...HOW MUCH ACCUMULATES INTO
THE MORNING WHERE IT PERSISTS?

FOR NOW...WE HAVE A WIDESPREAD 1-2" IN THE FCST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2" FROM HWY 281 E OVER S-CNTRL NEB. HIGHER AMTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST: WE MAY BE INDICATING TOO MUCH PRECIP
POTENTIAL W AND N OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE AREAS MAY SEE VERY
LITTLE OUT OF THIS.

SAT NIGHT: THE APPROACHING TROF INDUCES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND A
COMMAHEAD BEGINS TO FORM SAT NIGHT. WITH THE MID-LVL LOW CROSSING
THE FCST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW
ACCUM WILL PROBABLY OCCUR N OF I-80 INTO THE SANDHILLS. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COOL THE COLUMN FOR SNOW.

BECOMING WINDY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA.

UNCERTAINTY: PLEASE KEEP IN MIND PART OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THIS IS ALWAYS AN AREA OF GREAT
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE THE CUT-OFF BETWEEN PRECIP-NO PRECIP IS SHARP.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS PRECIP TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE IS VERY MARGINAL
AND PRECIP TYPES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. WE ARE UNABLE TO PINPOINT IF
IT WILL SNOW...AND IF IT DOES HOW LONG IT WILL LAST. IF WE DO GET
AN AREA THAT CHANGES OVER TONIGHT AND SOMEHOW IT REMAINS INTO SAT
MORNING...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SWATH OF UP TO 4 INCHES
FOR PART OF THE FCST AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...GREATEST RISK WOULD BE
S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

PLEASE WATCH FOR FCST UPDATES AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARILY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH
MULTIPLE...QUICK PASSING...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAVING MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. AS A CONSEQUENCE...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATING AROUND NORMAL THANKS TO MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS BEING
STEERED ACROSS THE REGION.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO
BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY MID MORNING...WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUED
MENTION FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WHILE SOME CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...EVEN
SO...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER AND A VERY COLD AIRMASS
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT A COOL AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SPOTS.
ALONG WITH THESE COOL READINGS...EXPECT A FAIRLY STIFF
NORTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL BLUSTERY.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK SUNDAY EVENING
...AND WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED MONDAY MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...WHICH WILL MARK THE
COOLEST MORNING READINGS IN ABOUT 3 WEEKS. THEN...AS THIS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TO START
THE WEEK. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER TO HELP MODIFY
AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT...STILL THINK THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN USHER IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK. WHILE
NOT BITTERLY COLD...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. EVEN
THOUGH THIS COOLER AIRMASS SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL
MODELED...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE A LITTLE MORE IFFY AS THE
EC KEEPS ANY PRECIP MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE GFS IS
TRANSITIONING A LIGHT FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SNOW GIVEN BY MODEL BLEND DID NOT NEED TO BE TAMPERED
WITH FOR THE TIME BEING. WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD MARK A REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
UNSURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW...AND THIS
COULD DEPEND ON HOW HEAVY PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE. ANY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE SNOW...WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
BEING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND NOT EXPECTING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY ANY MEANS. LOWERING CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AT KEAR A GOOD COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE KGRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 310010
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
610 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...THE FIRST DECENT PRECIP EVENT IN WEEKS IS ON DECK AND HAS LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS SNOW AND HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH NW FLOW FROM CANADA
INTO THE ERN USA TROF...AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY CREEP E OF THE
REGION WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
OUR WX WILL BE THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 140 KT JET
ON THE TROPOPAUSE AND THE ASSOCIATED MASS ADJUSTMENTS.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS DEPARTING THE REGION AND WILL HEAD INTO
THE ERN USA WITH RETURN FLOW HERE IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SAG S AND CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. A
WEAK COLORADO LOW WILL ALSO ADVANCE E ACROSS KS SAT NIGHT AND WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR KS CITY AT DAWN SUN.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY AND MILD. TEMPS HAVE RISEN NICELY
DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER. SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
INVADING FROM THE SW. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS FROM GLD/DDC.

WHAT FOLLOWS BELOW ARE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS BASED ON
INTERPRETATION OF AVAILABLE FCST GUIDANCE. PLEASE ALLOW US ROOM
FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THEY WILL BE NECESSARY AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

TONIGHT: THE SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONT BLOSSOMING
INTO A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN AND EXPAND TO THE N. YOU SEE IT ON
RADAR. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT 3
PM...THE COLUMN EVENTUALLY SATURATES. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN S OF I-80.

THIS SHIELD OF PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY WAA/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE JET ENTRANCE REGION.

PRECIP-TYPE ALGORITHMS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST IT IS WARM
ENOUGH TO START AS RAIN...BUT WE HAVE SEEN MULTIPLE RUNS FROM THE
NAM AND ITS 4 KM NEST SUGGEST WETBULB COOLING WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THIS IS A CONCERN. GEARED THE FCST MORE
TOWARD SNOW AFTER 12 AM. IT WILL HAVE TO COME DOWN HARD TO
ACCUMULATE.

SAT: THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL HEAD INTO SE NEB/NE KS BUT SNOW
OR A R/S MIX PROBABLY LINGERS HERE INTO THE MORNING. DO WE GET A
BREAK OR DOES ITS W EDGE KEEP PRECIP GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON? WE
HAVE SEEN INDICATIONS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD COULD EXIT TO THE E
IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ON THIS. IF PRECIP DOES LINGER...
INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY DECREASE.

IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE TO SNOW...IT COULD/WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANOTHER PLAYER
IS PRECIP INTENSITY. IT COULD BE SNOW WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIP
ELEMENTS AND BE A R/S MIX OR RAIN OTHERWISE.

IF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT...HOW MUCH ACCUMULATES INTO
THE MORNING WHERE IT PERSISTS?

FOR NOW...WE HAVE A WIDESPREAD 1-2" IN THE FCST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2" FROM HWY 281 E OVER S-CNTRL NEB. HIGHER AMTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST: WE MAY BE INDICATING TOO MUCH PRECIP
POTENTIAL W AND N OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE AREAS MAY SEE VERY
LITTLE OUT OF THIS.

SAT NIGHT: THE APPROACHING TROF INDUCES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND A
COMMAHEAD BEGINS TO FORM SAT NIGHT. WITH THE MID-LVL LOW CROSSING
THE FCST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW
ACCUM WILL PROBABLY OCCUR N OF I-80 INTO THE SANDHILLS. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COOL THE COLUMN FOR SNOW.

BECOMING WINDY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA.

UNCERTAINTY: PLEASE KEEP IN MIND PART OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THIS IS ALWAYS AN AREA OF GREAT
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE THE CUT-OFF BETWEEN PRECIP-NO PRECIP IS SHARP.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS PRECIP TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE IS VERY MARGINAL
AND PRECIP TYPES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. WE ARE UNABLE TO PINPOINT IF
IT WILL SNOW...AND IF IT DOES HOW LONG IT WILL LAST. IF WE DO GET
AN AREA THAT CHANGES OVER TONIGHT AND SOMEHOW IT REMAINS INTO SAT
MORNING...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SWATH OF UP TO 4 INCHES
FOR PART OF THE FCST AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...GREATEST RISK WOULD BE
S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

PLEASE WATCH FOR FCST UPDATES AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARILY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH
MULTIPLE...QUICK PASSING...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAVING MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. AS A CONSEQUENCE...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATING AROUND NORMAL THANKS TO MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS BEING
STEERED ACROSS THE REGION.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO
BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY MID MORNING...WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUED
MENTION FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WHILE SOME CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...EVEN
SO...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER AND A VERY COLD AIRMASS
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT A COOL AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SPOTS.
ALONG WITH THESE COOL READINGS...EXPECT A FAIRLY STIFF
NORTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL BLUSTERY.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK SUNDAY EVENING
...AND WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED MONDAY MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...WHICH WILL MARK THE
COOLEST MORNING READINGS IN ABOUT 3 WEEKS. THEN...AS THIS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TO START
THE WEEK. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER TO HELP MODIFY
AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT...STILL THINK THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN USHER IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK. WHILE
NOT BITTERLY COLD...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. EVEN
THOUGH THIS COOLER AIRMASS SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL
MODELED...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE A LITTLE MORE IFFY AS THE
EC KEEPS ANY PRECIP MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE GFS IS
TRANSITIONING A LIGHT FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SNOW GIVEN BY MODEL BLEND DID NOT NEED TO BE TAMPERED
WITH FOR THE TIME BEING. WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD MARK A REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
UNSURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW...AND THIS
COULD DEPEND ON HOW HEAVY PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE. ANY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE SNOW...WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
BEING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND NOT EXPECTING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY ANY MEANS. LOWERING CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AT KEAR A GOOD COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE KGRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 310010
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
610 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...THE FIRST DECENT PRECIP EVENT IN WEEKS IS ON DECK AND HAS LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS SNOW AND HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH NW FLOW FROM CANADA
INTO THE ERN USA TROF...AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY CREEP E OF THE
REGION WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
OUR WX WILL BE THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 140 KT JET
ON THE TROPOPAUSE AND THE ASSOCIATED MASS ADJUSTMENTS.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS DEPARTING THE REGION AND WILL HEAD INTO
THE ERN USA WITH RETURN FLOW HERE IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SAG S AND CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. A
WEAK COLORADO LOW WILL ALSO ADVANCE E ACROSS KS SAT NIGHT AND WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR KS CITY AT DAWN SUN.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY AND MILD. TEMPS HAVE RISEN NICELY
DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER. SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
INVADING FROM THE SW. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS FROM GLD/DDC.

WHAT FOLLOWS BELOW ARE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS BASED ON
INTERPRETATION OF AVAILABLE FCST GUIDANCE. PLEASE ALLOW US ROOM
FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THEY WILL BE NECESSARY AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

TONIGHT: THE SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONT BLOSSOMING
INTO A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN AND EXPAND TO THE N. YOU SEE IT ON
RADAR. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT 3
PM...THE COLUMN EVENTUALLY SATURATES. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN S OF I-80.

THIS SHIELD OF PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY WAA/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE JET ENTRANCE REGION.

PRECIP-TYPE ALGORITHMS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST IT IS WARM
ENOUGH TO START AS RAIN...BUT WE HAVE SEEN MULTIPLE RUNS FROM THE
NAM AND ITS 4 KM NEST SUGGEST WETBULB COOLING WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THIS IS A CONCERN. GEARED THE FCST MORE
TOWARD SNOW AFTER 12 AM. IT WILL HAVE TO COME DOWN HARD TO
ACCUMULATE.

SAT: THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL HEAD INTO SE NEB/NE KS BUT SNOW
OR A R/S MIX PROBABLY LINGERS HERE INTO THE MORNING. DO WE GET A
BREAK OR DOES ITS W EDGE KEEP PRECIP GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON? WE
HAVE SEEN INDICATIONS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD COULD EXIT TO THE E
IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ON THIS. IF PRECIP DOES LINGER...
INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY DECREASE.

IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE TO SNOW...IT COULD/WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANOTHER PLAYER
IS PRECIP INTENSITY. IT COULD BE SNOW WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIP
ELEMENTS AND BE A R/S MIX OR RAIN OTHERWISE.

IF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT...HOW MUCH ACCUMULATES INTO
THE MORNING WHERE IT PERSISTS?

FOR NOW...WE HAVE A WIDESPREAD 1-2" IN THE FCST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2" FROM HWY 281 E OVER S-CNTRL NEB. HIGHER AMTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST: WE MAY BE INDICATING TOO MUCH PRECIP
POTENTIAL W AND N OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE AREAS MAY SEE VERY
LITTLE OUT OF THIS.

SAT NIGHT: THE APPROACHING TROF INDUCES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND A
COMMAHEAD BEGINS TO FORM SAT NIGHT. WITH THE MID-LVL LOW CROSSING
THE FCST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW
ACCUM WILL PROBABLY OCCUR N OF I-80 INTO THE SANDHILLS. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COOL THE COLUMN FOR SNOW.

BECOMING WINDY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA.

UNCERTAINTY: PLEASE KEEP IN MIND PART OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THIS IS ALWAYS AN AREA OF GREAT
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE THE CUT-OFF BETWEEN PRECIP-NO PRECIP IS SHARP.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS PRECIP TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE IS VERY MARGINAL
AND PRECIP TYPES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. WE ARE UNABLE TO PINPOINT IF
IT WILL SNOW...AND IF IT DOES HOW LONG IT WILL LAST. IF WE DO GET
AN AREA THAT CHANGES OVER TONIGHT AND SOMEHOW IT REMAINS INTO SAT
MORNING...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SWATH OF UP TO 4 INCHES
FOR PART OF THE FCST AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...GREATEST RISK WOULD BE
S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

PLEASE WATCH FOR FCST UPDATES AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARILY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH
MULTIPLE...QUICK PASSING...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAVING MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. AS A CONSEQUENCE...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATING AROUND NORMAL THANKS TO MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS BEING
STEERED ACROSS THE REGION.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO
BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY MID MORNING...WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUED
MENTION FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WHILE SOME CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...EVEN
SO...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER AND A VERY COLD AIRMASS
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT A COOL AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SPOTS.
ALONG WITH THESE COOL READINGS...EXPECT A FAIRLY STIFF
NORTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL BLUSTERY.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK SUNDAY EVENING
...AND WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED MONDAY MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...WHICH WILL MARK THE
COOLEST MORNING READINGS IN ABOUT 3 WEEKS. THEN...AS THIS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TO START
THE WEEK. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER TO HELP MODIFY
AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT...STILL THINK THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN USHER IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK. WHILE
NOT BITTERLY COLD...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. EVEN
THOUGH THIS COOLER AIRMASS SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL
MODELED...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE A LITTLE MORE IFFY AS THE
EC KEEPS ANY PRECIP MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE GFS IS
TRANSITIONING A LIGHT FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SNOW GIVEN BY MODEL BLEND DID NOT NEED TO BE TAMPERED
WITH FOR THE TIME BEING. WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD MARK A REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
UNSURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPE BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW...AND THIS
COULD DEPEND ON HOW HEAVY PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE. ANY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE SNOW...WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
BEING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND NOT EXPECTING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY ANY MEANS. LOWERING CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AT KEAR A GOOD COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE KGRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLBF 302328
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
528 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MISS RVR VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
LOCALLY SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A GOOD FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BRING DRAWN NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN DENSE CIRRUS STRATUS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WAS LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY MANAGED TO WARM TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SLOWLY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS KS/SRN NEB. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY LAYER WHICH WILL LIMIT
PRECIP INITIALLY FROM REACHING THE GROUND. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEST FROM
285K TO 295K AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS. MARGINAL LIFT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW AND DELAYED PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP TOTALS BEING ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. THIS IS WHY THE FORECAST REMAINS CHANCE POPS.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...WHICH MODELS SHOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT. 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND ZERO BY MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY. TEMPS
REMAIN MILD TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOULD FALL ONLY INTO THE
20S...MAYBE HOLDING CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE
MORNING. WHILE GENERALLY SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY P TYPE...WHILE
TEMPS WARM ABOVE 35 DEGREES COULD SEE SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR
EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD TO ALL RAIN. BY LATE AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS TO
-2C OR COLDER AND TEMPS SHOULD BE FALLING AT THE SURFACE...THUS
EVENTUALLY THE THREAT FOR A MIX IS ELIMINATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME WEAK ELEVATED ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN THE 285-300K LAYER OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA ALONG WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...THE LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK. THE
FORECAST SOUNDING LOCATED NEAR ONEILL INDICATES A SATURATED
ISOTHERMAL LAYER 850-700MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -10C TO -8C. THE
GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE 1200M THICK DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SUPER- SATURATED (WITH RESPECT TO ICE) AND HAS UPWARD MOTION OF
2-6 MICROBARS/SEC. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIO OF 10:1 INITIALLY AND 14:1 BY 06Z. SINCE THE
FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY SMALL...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
IS NOT BIG AND A 12-13:1 RATIO WOULD WORK FOR THE 12 HOUR PERIOD
00-12Z. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WOULD THEN SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF AN INCH OR TWO. HOWEVER...A CROSS-SECTION OF EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND THETA-E INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THAT IS SUPPORTED
BY THE NEARLY PSEUDO-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SIGNALED IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY
TO THE EAST AND END BY 12Z.

IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE FRONT-RELATIVE LIFT
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THAT SHIFT INDICATED IN THE MODELS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A FRONT SLIDES SOUTH...SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT IN THE
290-300K LAYER SETS THINGS UP FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE FRONT STALLS OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD LIFT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AT THAT TIME RANGE...IT
IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION OR EVEN THE PHASE. LOOKING AT THE GFS, GEM AND
ECM...THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY WARM ADVECTION OVER A
SHALLOW-SLOPED FRONT. A CROSS-SECTION OF WIND AND AGEOSTROPHIC
VERTICAL CIRCULATION IS SIGNALING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 291-306K LAYER WITH NEGATIVE TO ZERO THETA-E
LAPSE RATES (NEUTRAL TO FOLDED THETA-E).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MOISTURE FROM SWRN U.S RESULTING IN DENSE CIRRUS THIS EVENING. A
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE DRY LOWER LEVELS THIS
EVENING INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN JUST MID AND HIGH VFR CLOUDS.
OVERNIGHT SOME WEAK LIFT WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY EXPECT
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND SOUTH OF THE KLBF TERMINAL PRIOR TO 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS. WHILE NO PRECIP IN THE KVTN TAF...IFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 302328
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
528 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MISS RVR VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
LOCALLY SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A GOOD FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BRING DRAWN NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN DENSE CIRRUS STRATUS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WAS LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY MANAGED TO WARM TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SLOWLY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS KS/SRN NEB. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY LAYER WHICH WILL LIMIT
PRECIP INITIALLY FROM REACHING THE GROUND. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEST FROM
285K TO 295K AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS. MARGINAL LIFT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW AND DELAYED PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP TOTALS BEING ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. THIS IS WHY THE FORECAST REMAINS CHANCE POPS.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...WHICH MODELS SHOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT. 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND ZERO BY MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY. TEMPS
REMAIN MILD TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOULD FALL ONLY INTO THE
20S...MAYBE HOLDING CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE
MORNING. WHILE GENERALLY SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY P TYPE...WHILE
TEMPS WARM ABOVE 35 DEGREES COULD SEE SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR
EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD TO ALL RAIN. BY LATE AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS TO
-2C OR COLDER AND TEMPS SHOULD BE FALLING AT THE SURFACE...THUS
EVENTUALLY THE THREAT FOR A MIX IS ELIMINATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME WEAK ELEVATED ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN THE 285-300K LAYER OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA ALONG WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...THE LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK. THE
FORECAST SOUNDING LOCATED NEAR ONEILL INDICATES A SATURATED
ISOTHERMAL LAYER 850-700MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -10C TO -8C. THE
GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE 1200M THICK DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SUPER- SATURATED (WITH RESPECT TO ICE) AND HAS UPWARD MOTION OF
2-6 MICROBARS/SEC. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIO OF 10:1 INITIALLY AND 14:1 BY 06Z. SINCE THE
FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY SMALL...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
IS NOT BIG AND A 12-13:1 RATIO WOULD WORK FOR THE 12 HOUR PERIOD
00-12Z. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WOULD THEN SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF AN INCH OR TWO. HOWEVER...A CROSS-SECTION OF EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND THETA-E INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THAT IS SUPPORTED
BY THE NEARLY PSEUDO-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SIGNALED IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY
TO THE EAST AND END BY 12Z.

IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE FRONT-RELATIVE LIFT
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THAT SHIFT INDICATED IN THE MODELS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A FRONT SLIDES SOUTH...SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT IN THE
290-300K LAYER SETS THINGS UP FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE FRONT STALLS OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD LIFT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AT THAT TIME RANGE...IT
IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION OR EVEN THE PHASE. LOOKING AT THE GFS, GEM AND
ECM...THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY WARM ADVECTION OVER A
SHALLOW-SLOPED FRONT. A CROSS-SECTION OF WIND AND AGEOSTROPHIC
VERTICAL CIRCULATION IS SIGNALING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 291-306K LAYER WITH NEGATIVE TO ZERO THETA-E
LAPSE RATES (NEUTRAL TO FOLDED THETA-E).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MOISTURE FROM SWRN U.S RESULTING IN DENSE CIRRUS THIS EVENING. A
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE DRY LOWER LEVELS THIS
EVENING INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN JUST MID AND HIGH VFR CLOUDS.
OVERNIGHT SOME WEAK LIFT WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY EXPECT
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND SOUTH OF THE KLBF TERMINAL PRIOR TO 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS. WHILE NO PRECIP IN THE KVTN TAF...IFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 302328
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
528 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MISS RVR VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
LOCALLY SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A GOOD FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BRING DRAWN NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN DENSE CIRRUS STRATUS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WAS LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY MANAGED TO WARM TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SLOWLY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS KS/SRN NEB. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY LAYER WHICH WILL LIMIT
PRECIP INITIALLY FROM REACHING THE GROUND. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEST FROM
285K TO 295K AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS. MARGINAL LIFT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW AND DELAYED PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP TOTALS BEING ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. THIS IS WHY THE FORECAST REMAINS CHANCE POPS.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...WHICH MODELS SHOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT. 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND ZERO BY MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY. TEMPS
REMAIN MILD TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOULD FALL ONLY INTO THE
20S...MAYBE HOLDING CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE
MORNING. WHILE GENERALLY SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY P TYPE...WHILE
TEMPS WARM ABOVE 35 DEGREES COULD SEE SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR
EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD TO ALL RAIN. BY LATE AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS TO
-2C OR COLDER AND TEMPS SHOULD BE FALLING AT THE SURFACE...THUS
EVENTUALLY THE THREAT FOR A MIX IS ELIMINATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME WEAK ELEVATED ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN THE 285-300K LAYER OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA ALONG WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...THE LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK. THE
FORECAST SOUNDING LOCATED NEAR ONEILL INDICATES A SATURATED
ISOTHERMAL LAYER 850-700MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -10C TO -8C. THE
GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE 1200M THICK DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SUPER- SATURATED (WITH RESPECT TO ICE) AND HAS UPWARD MOTION OF
2-6 MICROBARS/SEC. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIO OF 10:1 INITIALLY AND 14:1 BY 06Z. SINCE THE
FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY SMALL...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
IS NOT BIG AND A 12-13:1 RATIO WOULD WORK FOR THE 12 HOUR PERIOD
00-12Z. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WOULD THEN SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF AN INCH OR TWO. HOWEVER...A CROSS-SECTION OF EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND THETA-E INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THAT IS SUPPORTED
BY THE NEARLY PSEUDO-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SIGNALED IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY
TO THE EAST AND END BY 12Z.

IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE FRONT-RELATIVE LIFT
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THAT SHIFT INDICATED IN THE MODELS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A FRONT SLIDES SOUTH...SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT IN THE
290-300K LAYER SETS THINGS UP FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE FRONT STALLS OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD LIFT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AT THAT TIME RANGE...IT
IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION OR EVEN THE PHASE. LOOKING AT THE GFS, GEM AND
ECM...THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY WARM ADVECTION OVER A
SHALLOW-SLOPED FRONT. A CROSS-SECTION OF WIND AND AGEOSTROPHIC
VERTICAL CIRCULATION IS SIGNALING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 291-306K LAYER WITH NEGATIVE TO ZERO THETA-E
LAPSE RATES (NEUTRAL TO FOLDED THETA-E).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MOISTURE FROM SWRN U.S RESULTING IN DENSE CIRRUS THIS EVENING. A
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE DRY LOWER LEVELS THIS
EVENING INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN JUST MID AND HIGH VFR CLOUDS.
OVERNIGHT SOME WEAK LIFT WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY EXPECT
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND SOUTH OF THE KLBF TERMINAL PRIOR TO 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS. WHILE NO PRECIP IN THE KVTN TAF...IFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 302328
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
528 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MISS RVR VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
LOCALLY SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A GOOD FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BRING DRAWN NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN DENSE CIRRUS STRATUS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WAS LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY MANAGED TO WARM TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SLOWLY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS KS/SRN NEB. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY LAYER WHICH WILL LIMIT
PRECIP INITIALLY FROM REACHING THE GROUND. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEST FROM
285K TO 295K AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS. MARGINAL LIFT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW AND DELAYED PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP TOTALS BEING ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. THIS IS WHY THE FORECAST REMAINS CHANCE POPS.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...WHICH MODELS SHOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT. 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND ZERO BY MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY. TEMPS
REMAIN MILD TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOULD FALL ONLY INTO THE
20S...MAYBE HOLDING CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE
MORNING. WHILE GENERALLY SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY P TYPE...WHILE
TEMPS WARM ABOVE 35 DEGREES COULD SEE SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR
EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD TO ALL RAIN. BY LATE AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS TO
-2C OR COLDER AND TEMPS SHOULD BE FALLING AT THE SURFACE...THUS
EVENTUALLY THE THREAT FOR A MIX IS ELIMINATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME WEAK ELEVATED ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN THE 285-300K LAYER OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA ALONG WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...THE LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK. THE
FORECAST SOUNDING LOCATED NEAR ONEILL INDICATES A SATURATED
ISOTHERMAL LAYER 850-700MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -10C TO -8C. THE
GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE 1200M THICK DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SUPER- SATURATED (WITH RESPECT TO ICE) AND HAS UPWARD MOTION OF
2-6 MICROBARS/SEC. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIO OF 10:1 INITIALLY AND 14:1 BY 06Z. SINCE THE
FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY SMALL...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
IS NOT BIG AND A 12-13:1 RATIO WOULD WORK FOR THE 12 HOUR PERIOD
00-12Z. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WOULD THEN SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF AN INCH OR TWO. HOWEVER...A CROSS-SECTION OF EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND THETA-E INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THAT IS SUPPORTED
BY THE NEARLY PSEUDO-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SIGNALED IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY
TO THE EAST AND END BY 12Z.

IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE FRONT-RELATIVE LIFT
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THAT SHIFT INDICATED IN THE MODELS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A FRONT SLIDES SOUTH...SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT IN THE
290-300K LAYER SETS THINGS UP FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE FRONT STALLS OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD LIFT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AT THAT TIME RANGE...IT
IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION OR EVEN THE PHASE. LOOKING AT THE GFS, GEM AND
ECM...THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY WARM ADVECTION OVER A
SHALLOW-SLOPED FRONT. A CROSS-SECTION OF WIND AND AGEOSTROPHIC
VERTICAL CIRCULATION IS SIGNALING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 291-306K LAYER WITH NEGATIVE TO ZERO THETA-E
LAPSE RATES (NEUTRAL TO FOLDED THETA-E).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MOISTURE FROM SWRN U.S RESULTING IN DENSE CIRRUS THIS EVENING. A
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE DRY LOWER LEVELS THIS
EVENING INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN JUST MID AND HIGH VFR CLOUDS.
OVERNIGHT SOME WEAK LIFT WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY EXPECT
PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND SOUTH OF THE KLBF TERMINAL PRIOR TO 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS. WHILE NO PRECIP IN THE KVTN TAF...IFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER 15Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








  [top]

000
FXUS63 KOAX 302326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
526 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PCPN TYPE AND PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. PCPN SHOULD TURN
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND LATEST RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER REGION EARLY THIS
AFTN. THIS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THIS TROUGH THOUGH AND
MOVE UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER...WITH
LIGHT PCPN PROBABLY MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE 12Z.
HAVE LOWS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE
PCPN TYPE MAY BE A MIX LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

DID MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SNOW AMOUNTS...MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT IF WE GET
ANY ACCUMULATIONS...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHTER. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL APPEARED TOO COLD...AND WENT CLOSER TO A
BLEND OF SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE SREF. NORTH
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS THE
COLUMN COOLS...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW AND WILL START TO
ACCUMULATE. A SEPARATE SYSTEM WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING GOOD LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. IT APPEARS ANOTHER LOBE OF LIFT WILL DROP
DOWN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT SOME
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW GOING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE COLD WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING WINDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WE MAY SEE SOME BELOW
ZERO NUMBERS FROM HARTINGTON AND WAYNE TOWARD TEKAMAH AND HARLAN.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. COULD NOT ARGUE WITH THAT TOO MUCH SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW AND WILL FINE TUNE THAT
LATER. MEASURABLE LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN IOWA MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME MILDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT FOR HIGHS. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SEEMS POSSIBLE BASED ON THE PATTERN...PLUS BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A BIT OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THEN
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS BECOME MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
INITIALLY...THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN IN THE KLNK AREA BY
10Z...AND 14-15Z AT KOMA/KOFK. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE BY 20-21Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN/MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 302326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
526 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PCPN TYPE AND PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. PCPN SHOULD TURN
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND LATEST RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER REGION EARLY THIS
AFTN. THIS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THIS TROUGH THOUGH AND
MOVE UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER...WITH
LIGHT PCPN PROBABLY MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE 12Z.
HAVE LOWS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE
PCPN TYPE MAY BE A MIX LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

DID MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SNOW AMOUNTS...MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT IF WE GET
ANY ACCUMULATIONS...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHTER. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL APPEARED TOO COLD...AND WENT CLOSER TO A
BLEND OF SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE SREF. NORTH
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS THE
COLUMN COOLS...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW AND WILL START TO
ACCUMULATE. A SEPARATE SYSTEM WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING GOOD LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. IT APPEARS ANOTHER LOBE OF LIFT WILL DROP
DOWN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT SOME
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW GOING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE COLD WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING WINDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WE MAY SEE SOME BELOW
ZERO NUMBERS FROM HARTINGTON AND WAYNE TOWARD TEKAMAH AND HARLAN.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. COULD NOT ARGUE WITH THAT TOO MUCH SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW AND WILL FINE TUNE THAT
LATER. MEASURABLE LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN IOWA MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME MILDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT FOR HIGHS. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SEEMS POSSIBLE BASED ON THE PATTERN...PLUS BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A BIT OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THEN
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS BECOME MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
INITIALLY...THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN IN THE KLNK AREA BY
10Z...AND 14-15Z AT KOMA/KOFK. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE BY 20-21Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN/MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 302132
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...THE FIRST DECENT PRECIP EVENT IN WEEKS IS ON DECK AND HAS LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS SNOW AND HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH NW FLOW FROM CANADA
INTO THE ERN USA TROF...AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY CREEP E OF THE
REGION WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
OUR WX WILL BE THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 140 KT JET
ON THE TROPOPAUSE AND THE ASSOCIATED MASS ADJUSTMENTS.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS DEPARTING THE REGION AND WILL HEAD INTO
THE ERN USA WITH RETURN FLOW HERE IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SAG S AND CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. A
WEAK COLORADO LOW WILL ALSO ADVANCE E ACROSS KS SAT NIGHT AND WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR KS CITY AT DAWN SUN.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY AND MILD. TEMPS HAVE RISEN NICELY
DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER. SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
INVADING FROM THE SW. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS FROM GLD/DDC.

WHAT FOLLOWS BELOW ARE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS BASED ON
INTERPRETATION OF AVAILABLE FCST GUIDANCE. PLEASE ALLOW US ROOM
FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THEY WILL BE NECESSARY AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

TONIGHT: THE SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONT BLOSSOMING
INTO A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN AND EXPAND TO THE N. YOU SEE IT ON
RADAR. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT 3
PM...THE COLUMN EVENTUALLY SATURATES. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN S OF I-80.

THIS SHIELD OF PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY WAA/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE JET ENTRANCE REGION.

PRECIP-TYPE ALGORITHMS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST IT IS WARM
ENOUGH TO START AS RAIN...BUT WE HAVE SEEN MULTIPLE RUNS FROM THE
NAM AND ITS 4 KM NEST SUGGEST WETBULB COOLING WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THIS IS A CONCERN. GEARED THE FCST MORE
TOWARD SNOW AFTER 12 AM. IT WILL HAVE TO COME DOWN HARD TO
ACCUMULATE.

SAT: THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL HEAD INTO SE NEB/NE KS BUT SNOW
OR A R/S MIX PROBABLY LINGERS HERE INTO THE MORNING. DO WE GET A
BREAK OR DOES ITS W EDGE KEEP PRECIP GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON? WE
HAVE SEEN INDICATIONS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD COULD EXIT TO THE E
IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ON THIS. IF PRECIP DOES LINGER...
INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY DECREASE.

IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE TO SNOW...IT COULD/WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANOTHER PLAYER
IS PRECIP INTENSITY. IT COULD BE SNOW WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIP
ELEMENTS AND BE A R/S MIX OR RAIN OTHERWISE.

IF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT...HOW MUCH ACCUMULATES INTO
THE MORNING WHERE IT PERSISTS?

FOR NOW...WE HAVE A WIDESPREAD 1-2" IN THE FCST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2" FROM HWY 281 E OVER S-CNTRL NEB. HIGHER AMTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST: WE MAY BE INDICATING TOO MUCH PRECIP
POTENTIAL W AND N OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE AREAS MAY SEE VERY
LITTLE OUT OF THIS.

SAT NIGHT: THE APPROACHING TROF INDUCES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND A
COMMAHEAD BEGINS TO FORM SAT NIGHT. WITH THE MID-LVL LOW CROSSING
THE FCST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW
ACCUM WILL PROBABLY OCCUR N OF I-80 INTO THE SANDHILLS. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COOL THE COLUMN FOR SNOW.

BECOMING WINDY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA.

UNCERTAINTY: PLEASE KEEP IN MIND PART OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THIS IS ALWAYS AN AREA OF GREAT
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE THE CUT-OFF BETWEEN PRECIP-NO PRECIP IS SHARP.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS PRECIP TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE IS VERY MARGINAL
AND PRECIP TYPES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. WE ARE UNABLE TO PINPOINT IF
IT WILL SNOW...AND IF IT DOES HOW LONG IT WILL LAST. IF WE DO GET
AN AREA THAT CHANGES OVER TONIGHT AND SOMEHOW IT REMAINS INTO SAT
MORNING...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SWATH OF UP TO 4 INCHES
FOR PART OF THE FCST AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...GREATEST RISK WOULD BE
S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

PLEASE WATCH FOR FCST UPDATES AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARILY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH
MULTIPLE...QUICK PASSING...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAVING MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. AS A CONSEQUENCE...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATING AROUND NORMAL THANKS TO MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS BEING
STEERED ACROSS THE REGION.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO
BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY MID MORNING...WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUED
MENTION FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WHILE SOME CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...EVEN
SO...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER AND A VERY COLD AIRMASS
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT A COOL AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SPOTS.
ALONG WITH THESE COOL READINGS...EXPECT A FAIRLY STIFF
NORTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL BLUSTERY.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK SUNDAY EVENING
...AND WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED MONDAY MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...WHICH WILL MARK THE
COOLEST MORNING READINGS IN ABOUT 3 WEEKS. THEN...AS THIS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TO START
THE WEEK. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER TO HELP MODIFY
AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT...STILL THINK THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN USHER IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK. WHILE
NOT BITTERLY COLD...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. EVEN
THOUGH THIS COOLER AIRMASS SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL
MODELED...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE A LITTLE MORE IFFY AS THE
EC KEEPS ANY PRECIP MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE GFS IS
TRANSITIONING A LIGHT FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SNOW GIVEN BY MODEL BLEND DID NOT NEED TO BE TAMPERED
WITH FOR THE TIME BEING. WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD MARK A REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC 20K FT.
MULTI-LAYERED CIGS WILL INVADE FROM THE SW 7-12K FT. S WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL DESCEND TO AROUND 5K FT WITH PATCHY
-RA MOVING IN. CONDS SHOULD DECAY TO MVFR AS STEADIER -RA LIFTS N.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RA TO CHANGE OVER TO IFR SNOW PRIOR TO 12Z.
S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE N EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OCCURS. ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
TYPE OF PRECIP.

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN. S WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS. SN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE BACK TO
RA AFTER 16Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 302132
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...THE FIRST DECENT PRECIP EVENT IN WEEKS IS ON DECK AND HAS LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS SNOW AND HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH NW FLOW FROM CANADA
INTO THE ERN USA TROF...AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY CREEP E OF THE
REGION WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
OUR WX WILL BE THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 140 KT JET
ON THE TROPOPAUSE AND THE ASSOCIATED MASS ADJUSTMENTS.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS DEPARTING THE REGION AND WILL HEAD INTO
THE ERN USA WITH RETURN FLOW HERE IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SAG S AND CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. A
WEAK COLORADO LOW WILL ALSO ADVANCE E ACROSS KS SAT NIGHT AND WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR KS CITY AT DAWN SUN.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY AND MILD. TEMPS HAVE RISEN NICELY
DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER. SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
INVADING FROM THE SW. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS FROM GLD/DDC.

WHAT FOLLOWS BELOW ARE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS BASED ON
INTERPRETATION OF AVAILABLE FCST GUIDANCE. PLEASE ALLOW US ROOM
FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THEY WILL BE NECESSARY AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

TONIGHT: THE SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONT BLOSSOMING
INTO A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN AND EXPAND TO THE N. YOU SEE IT ON
RADAR. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT 3
PM...THE COLUMN EVENTUALLY SATURATES. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN S OF I-80.

THIS SHIELD OF PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY WAA/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE JET ENTRANCE REGION.

PRECIP-TYPE ALGORITHMS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST IT IS WARM
ENOUGH TO START AS RAIN...BUT WE HAVE SEEN MULTIPLE RUNS FROM THE
NAM AND ITS 4 KM NEST SUGGEST WETBULB COOLING WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THIS IS A CONCERN. GEARED THE FCST MORE
TOWARD SNOW AFTER 12 AM. IT WILL HAVE TO COME DOWN HARD TO
ACCUMULATE.

SAT: THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL HEAD INTO SE NEB/NE KS BUT SNOW
OR A R/S MIX PROBABLY LINGERS HERE INTO THE MORNING. DO WE GET A
BREAK OR DOES ITS W EDGE KEEP PRECIP GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON? WE
HAVE SEEN INDICATIONS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD COULD EXIT TO THE E
IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ON THIS. IF PRECIP DOES LINGER...
INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY DECREASE.

IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE TO SNOW...IT COULD/WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANOTHER PLAYER
IS PRECIP INTENSITY. IT COULD BE SNOW WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIP
ELEMENTS AND BE A R/S MIX OR RAIN OTHERWISE.

IF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT...HOW MUCH ACCUMULATES INTO
THE MORNING WHERE IT PERSISTS?

FOR NOW...WE HAVE A WIDESPREAD 1-2" IN THE FCST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2" FROM HWY 281 E OVER S-CNTRL NEB. HIGHER AMTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST: WE MAY BE INDICATING TOO MUCH PRECIP
POTENTIAL W AND N OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE AREAS MAY SEE VERY
LITTLE OUT OF THIS.

SAT NIGHT: THE APPROACHING TROF INDUCES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND A
COMMAHEAD BEGINS TO FORM SAT NIGHT. WITH THE MID-LVL LOW CROSSING
THE FCST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW
ACCUM WILL PROBABLY OCCUR N OF I-80 INTO THE SANDHILLS. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COOL THE COLUMN FOR SNOW.

BECOMING WINDY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA.

UNCERTAINTY: PLEASE KEEP IN MIND PART OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THIS IS ALWAYS AN AREA OF GREAT
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE THE CUT-OFF BETWEEN PRECIP-NO PRECIP IS SHARP.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS PRECIP TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE IS VERY MARGINAL
AND PRECIP TYPES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. WE ARE UNABLE TO PINPOINT IF
IT WILL SNOW...AND IF IT DOES HOW LONG IT WILL LAST. IF WE DO GET
AN AREA THAT CHANGES OVER TONIGHT AND SOMEHOW IT REMAINS INTO SAT
MORNING...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SWATH OF UP TO 4 INCHES
FOR PART OF THE FCST AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...GREATEST RISK WOULD BE
S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

PLEASE WATCH FOR FCST UPDATES AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARILY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH
MULTIPLE...QUICK PASSING...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAVING MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. AS A CONSEQUENCE...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATING AROUND NORMAL THANKS TO MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS BEING
STEERED ACROSS THE REGION.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO
BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY MID MORNING...WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUED
MENTION FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WHILE SOME CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...EVEN
SO...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER AND A VERY COLD AIRMASS
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT A COOL AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SPOTS.
ALONG WITH THESE COOL READINGS...EXPECT A FAIRLY STIFF
NORTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL BLUSTERY.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK SUNDAY EVENING
...AND WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED MONDAY MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...WHICH WILL MARK THE
COOLEST MORNING READINGS IN ABOUT 3 WEEKS. THEN...AS THIS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TO START
THE WEEK. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER TO HELP MODIFY
AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT...STILL THINK THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN USHER IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK. WHILE
NOT BITTERLY COLD...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. EVEN
THOUGH THIS COOLER AIRMASS SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL
MODELED...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE A LITTLE MORE IFFY AS THE
EC KEEPS ANY PRECIP MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE GFS IS
TRANSITIONING A LIGHT FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SNOW GIVEN BY MODEL BLEND DID NOT NEED TO BE TAMPERED
WITH FOR THE TIME BEING. WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD MARK A REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC 20K FT.
MULTI-LAYERED CIGS WILL INVADE FROM THE SW 7-12K FT. S WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL DESCEND TO AROUND 5K FT WITH PATCHY
-RA MOVING IN. CONDS SHOULD DECAY TO MVFR AS STEADIER -RA LIFTS N.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RA TO CHANGE OVER TO IFR SNOW PRIOR TO 12Z.
S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE N EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OCCURS. ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
TYPE OF PRECIP.

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN. S WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS. SN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE BACK TO
RA AFTER 16Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 302132
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...THE FIRST DECENT PRECIP EVENT IN WEEKS IS ON DECK AND HAS LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS SNOW AND HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH NW FLOW FROM CANADA
INTO THE ERN USA TROF...AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY CREEP E OF THE
REGION WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
OUR WX WILL BE THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 140 KT JET
ON THE TROPOPAUSE AND THE ASSOCIATED MASS ADJUSTMENTS.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS DEPARTING THE REGION AND WILL HEAD INTO
THE ERN USA WITH RETURN FLOW HERE IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SAG S AND CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. A
WEAK COLORADO LOW WILL ALSO ADVANCE E ACROSS KS SAT NIGHT AND WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR KS CITY AT DAWN SUN.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY AND MILD. TEMPS HAVE RISEN NICELY
DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER. SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
INVADING FROM THE SW. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS FROM GLD/DDC.

WHAT FOLLOWS BELOW ARE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS BASED ON
INTERPRETATION OF AVAILABLE FCST GUIDANCE. PLEASE ALLOW US ROOM
FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THEY WILL BE NECESSARY AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

TONIGHT: THE SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONT BLOSSOMING
INTO A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN AND EXPAND TO THE N. YOU SEE IT ON
RADAR. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT 3
PM...THE COLUMN EVENTUALLY SATURATES. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN S OF I-80.

THIS SHIELD OF PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY WAA/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE JET ENTRANCE REGION.

PRECIP-TYPE ALGORITHMS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST IT IS WARM
ENOUGH TO START AS RAIN...BUT WE HAVE SEEN MULTIPLE RUNS FROM THE
NAM AND ITS 4 KM NEST SUGGEST WETBULB COOLING WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THIS IS A CONCERN. GEARED THE FCST MORE
TOWARD SNOW AFTER 12 AM. IT WILL HAVE TO COME DOWN HARD TO
ACCUMULATE.

SAT: THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL HEAD INTO SE NEB/NE KS BUT SNOW
OR A R/S MIX PROBABLY LINGERS HERE INTO THE MORNING. DO WE GET A
BREAK OR DOES ITS W EDGE KEEP PRECIP GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON? WE
HAVE SEEN INDICATIONS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD COULD EXIT TO THE E
IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ON THIS. IF PRECIP DOES LINGER...
INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY DECREASE.

IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE TO SNOW...IT COULD/WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANOTHER PLAYER
IS PRECIP INTENSITY. IT COULD BE SNOW WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIP
ELEMENTS AND BE A R/S MIX OR RAIN OTHERWISE.

IF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT...HOW MUCH ACCUMULATES INTO
THE MORNING WHERE IT PERSISTS?

FOR NOW...WE HAVE A WIDESPREAD 1-2" IN THE FCST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2" FROM HWY 281 E OVER S-CNTRL NEB. HIGHER AMTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST: WE MAY BE INDICATING TOO MUCH PRECIP
POTENTIAL W AND N OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE AREAS MAY SEE VERY
LITTLE OUT OF THIS.

SAT NIGHT: THE APPROACHING TROF INDUCES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND A
COMMAHEAD BEGINS TO FORM SAT NIGHT. WITH THE MID-LVL LOW CROSSING
THE FCST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW
ACCUM WILL PROBABLY OCCUR N OF I-80 INTO THE SANDHILLS. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COOL THE COLUMN FOR SNOW.

BECOMING WINDY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA.

UNCERTAINTY: PLEASE KEEP IN MIND PART OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THIS IS ALWAYS AN AREA OF GREAT
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE THE CUT-OFF BETWEEN PRECIP-NO PRECIP IS SHARP.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS PRECIP TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE IS VERY MARGINAL
AND PRECIP TYPES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. WE ARE UNABLE TO PINPOINT IF
IT WILL SNOW...AND IF IT DOES HOW LONG IT WILL LAST. IF WE DO GET
AN AREA THAT CHANGES OVER TONIGHT AND SOMEHOW IT REMAINS INTO SAT
MORNING...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SWATH OF UP TO 4 INCHES
FOR PART OF THE FCST AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...GREATEST RISK WOULD BE
S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

PLEASE WATCH FOR FCST UPDATES AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARILY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH
MULTIPLE...QUICK PASSING...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAVING MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. AS A CONSEQUENCE...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATING AROUND NORMAL THANKS TO MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS BEING
STEERED ACROSS THE REGION.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO
BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY MID MORNING...WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUED
MENTION FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WHILE SOME CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...EVEN
SO...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER AND A VERY COLD AIRMASS
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT A COOL AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SPOTS.
ALONG WITH THESE COOL READINGS...EXPECT A FAIRLY STIFF
NORTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL BLUSTERY.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK SUNDAY EVENING
...AND WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED MONDAY MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...WHICH WILL MARK THE
COOLEST MORNING READINGS IN ABOUT 3 WEEKS. THEN...AS THIS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TO START
THE WEEK. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER TO HELP MODIFY
AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT...STILL THINK THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN USHER IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK. WHILE
NOT BITTERLY COLD...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. EVEN
THOUGH THIS COOLER AIRMASS SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL
MODELED...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE A LITTLE MORE IFFY AS THE
EC KEEPS ANY PRECIP MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE GFS IS
TRANSITIONING A LIGHT FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SNOW GIVEN BY MODEL BLEND DID NOT NEED TO BE TAMPERED
WITH FOR THE TIME BEING. WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD MARK A REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC 20K FT.
MULTI-LAYERED CIGS WILL INVADE FROM THE SW 7-12K FT. S WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL DESCEND TO AROUND 5K FT WITH PATCHY
-RA MOVING IN. CONDS SHOULD DECAY TO MVFR AS STEADIER -RA LIFTS N.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RA TO CHANGE OVER TO IFR SNOW PRIOR TO 12Z.
S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE N EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OCCURS. ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
TYPE OF PRECIP.

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN. S WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS. SN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE BACK TO
RA AFTER 16Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 302132
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...THE FIRST DECENT PRECIP EVENT IN WEEKS IS ON DECK AND HAS LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS SNOW AND HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW WAS OVER THE CONUS WITH NW FLOW FROM CANADA
INTO THE ERN USA TROF...AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY CREEP E OF THE
REGION WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW SAT NIGHT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
OUR WX WILL BE THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 140 KT JET
ON THE TROPOPAUSE AND THE ASSOCIATED MASS ADJUSTMENTS.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WAS DEPARTING THE REGION AND WILL HEAD INTO
THE ERN USA WITH RETURN FLOW HERE IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE...AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SAG S AND CROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. A
WEAK COLORADO LOW WILL ALSO ADVANCE E ACROSS KS SAT NIGHT AND WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR KS CITY AT DAWN SUN.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: CLOUDY AND MILD. TEMPS HAVE RISEN NICELY
DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER. SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
INVADING FROM THE SW. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS FROM GLD/DDC.

WHAT FOLLOWS BELOW ARE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS BASED ON
INTERPRETATION OF AVAILABLE FCST GUIDANCE. PLEASE ALLOW US ROOM
FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS THEY WILL BE NECESSARY AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

TONIGHT: THE SPRINKLES/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONT BLOSSOMING
INTO A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN AND EXPAND TO THE N. YOU SEE IT ON
RADAR. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT 3
PM...THE COLUMN EVENTUALLY SATURATES. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN S OF I-80.

THIS SHIELD OF PRECIP IS DRIVEN BY WAA/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE JET ENTRANCE REGION.

PRECIP-TYPE ALGORITHMS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST IT IS WARM
ENOUGH TO START AS RAIN...BUT WE HAVE SEEN MULTIPLE RUNS FROM THE
NAM AND ITS 4 KM NEST SUGGEST WETBULB COOLING WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THIS IS A CONCERN. GEARED THE FCST MORE
TOWARD SNOW AFTER 12 AM. IT WILL HAVE TO COME DOWN HARD TO
ACCUMULATE.

SAT: THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL HEAD INTO SE NEB/NE KS BUT SNOW
OR A R/S MIX PROBABLY LINGERS HERE INTO THE MORNING. DO WE GET A
BREAK OR DOES ITS W EDGE KEEP PRECIP GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON? WE
HAVE SEEN INDICATIONS THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD COULD EXIT TO THE E
IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ON THIS. IF PRECIP DOES LINGER...
INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY DECREASE.

IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE TO SNOW...IT COULD/WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANOTHER PLAYER
IS PRECIP INTENSITY. IT COULD BE SNOW WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIP
ELEMENTS AND BE A R/S MIX OR RAIN OTHERWISE.

IF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT...HOW MUCH ACCUMULATES INTO
THE MORNING WHERE IT PERSISTS?

FOR NOW...WE HAVE A WIDESPREAD 1-2" IN THE FCST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 2" FROM HWY 281 E OVER S-CNTRL NEB. HIGHER AMTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST: WE MAY BE INDICATING TOO MUCH PRECIP
POTENTIAL W AND N OF THE TRI-CITIES. THESE AREAS MAY SEE VERY
LITTLE OUT OF THIS.

SAT NIGHT: THE APPROACHING TROF INDUCES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND A
COMMAHEAD BEGINS TO FORM SAT NIGHT. WITH THE MID-LVL LOW CROSSING
THE FCST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW
ACCUM WILL PROBABLY OCCUR N OF I-80 INTO THE SANDHILLS. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COOL THE COLUMN FOR SNOW.

BECOMING WINDY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A BURST OF STRONG CAA.

UNCERTAINTY: PLEASE KEEP IN MIND PART OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE ON
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THIS IS ALWAYS AN AREA OF GREAT
UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE THE CUT-OFF BETWEEN PRECIP-NO PRECIP IS SHARP.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS PRECIP TYPE. THE TEMP PROFILE IS VERY MARGINAL
AND PRECIP TYPES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. WE ARE UNABLE TO PINPOINT IF
IT WILL SNOW...AND IF IT DOES HOW LONG IT WILL LAST. IF WE DO GET
AN AREA THAT CHANGES OVER TONIGHT AND SOMEHOW IT REMAINS INTO SAT
MORNING...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A SWATH OF UP TO 4 INCHES
FOR PART OF THE FCST AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...GREATEST RISK WOULD BE
S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

PLEASE WATCH FOR FCST UPDATES AND UPDATES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AS THIS
EVENT UNFOLDS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARILY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH
MULTIPLE...QUICK PASSING...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAVING MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. AS A CONSEQUENCE...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATING AROUND NORMAL THANKS TO MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS BEING
STEERED ACROSS THE REGION.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO
BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY MID MORNING...WITH ENOUGH FORCING TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUED
MENTION FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WHILE SOME CLEARING SHOULD BE NOTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...EVEN
SO...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER AND A VERY COLD AIRMASS
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT A COOL AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SPOTS.
ALONG WITH THESE COOL READINGS...EXPECT A FAIRLY STIFF
NORTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL BLUSTERY.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK SUNDAY EVENING
...AND WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WENT
AHEAD AND LOWERED MONDAY MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...WHICH WILL MARK THE
COOLEST MORNING READINGS IN ABOUT 3 WEEKS. THEN...AS THIS SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TO START
THE WEEK. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER TO HELP MODIFY
AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT...STILL THINK THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING...WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 50S AND LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE THEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING THE NEXT
COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN USHER IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK. WHILE
NOT BITTERLY COLD...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. EVEN
THOUGH THIS COOLER AIRMASS SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL
MODELED...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE A LITTLE MORE IFFY AS THE
EC KEEPS ANY PRECIP MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE GFS IS
TRANSITIONING A LIGHT FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SNOW GIVEN BY MODEL BLEND DID NOT NEED TO BE TAMPERED
WITH FOR THE TIME BEING. WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD MARK A REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC 20K FT.
MULTI-LAYERED CIGS WILL INVADE FROM THE SW 7-12K FT. S WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL DESCEND TO AROUND 5K FT WITH PATCHY
-RA MOVING IN. CONDS SHOULD DECAY TO MVFR AS STEADIER -RA LIFTS N.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RA TO CHANGE OVER TO IFR SNOW PRIOR TO 12Z.
S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE N EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OCCURS. ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
TYPE OF PRECIP.

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN. S WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS. SN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE BACK TO
RA AFTER 16Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KLBF 302130
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MISS RVR VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
LOCALLY SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A GOOD FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BRING DRAWN NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...RESULTING IN DENSE CIRRUS STRATUS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WAS LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY MANAGED TO WARM TO AROUND 50 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SLOWLY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS KS/SRN NEB. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY LAYER WHICH WILL LIMIT
PRECIP INITIALLY FROM REACHING THE GROUND. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEST FROM
285K TO 295K AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS. MARGINAL LIFT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW AND DELAYED PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP TOTALS BEING ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. THIS IS WHY THE FORECAST REMAINS CHANCE POPS.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TYPE. COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH...WHICH MODELS SHOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT. 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND ZERO BY MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY. TEMPS
REMAIN MILD TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOULD FALL ONLY INTO THE
20S...MAYBE HOLDING CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE
MORNING. WHILE GENERALLY SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY P TYPE...WHILE
TEMPS WARM ABOVE 35 DEGREES COULD SEE SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR
EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD TO ALL RAIN. BY LATE AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS TO
-2C OR COLDER AND TEMPS SHOULD BE FALLING AT THE SURFACE...THUS
EVENTUALLY THE THREAT FOR A MIX IS ELIMINATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME WEAK ELEVATED ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN THE 285-300K LAYER OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA ALONG WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...THE LIFT
WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK. THE
FORECAST SOUNDING LOCATED NEAR ONEILL INDICATES A SATURATED
ISOTHERMAL LAYER 850-700MB WITH A TEMPERATURE OF -10C TO -8C. THE
GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE 1200M THICK DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SUPER- SATURATED (WITH RESPECT TO ICE) AND HAS UPWARD MOTION OF
2-6 MICROBARS/SEC. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIO OF 10:1 INITIALLY AND 14:1 BY 06Z. SINCE THE
FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY SMALL...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
IS NOT BIG AND A 12-13:1 RATIO WOULD WORK FOR THE 12 HOUR PERIOD
00-12Z. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WOULD THEN SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF AN INCH OR TWO. HOWEVER...A CROSS-SECTION OF EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND THETA-E INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THAT IS SUPPORTED
BY THE NEARLY PSEUDO-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SIGNALED IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY
TO THE EAST AND END BY 12Z.

IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE FRONT-RELATIVE LIFT
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THAT SHIFT INDICATED IN THE MODELS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A FRONT SLIDES SOUTH...SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT IN THE
290-300K LAYER SETS THINGS UP FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE FRONT STALLS OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD LIFT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AT THAT TIME RANGE...IT
IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION OR EVEN THE PHASE. LOOKING AT THE GFS, GEM AND
ECM...THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY WARM ADVECTION OVER A
SHALLOW-SLOPED FRONT. A CROSS-SECTION OF WIND AND AGEOSTROPHIC
VERTICAL CIRCULATION IS SIGNALING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 291-306K LAYER WITH NEGATIVE TO ZERO THETA-E
LAPSE RATES (NEUTRAL TO FOLDED THETA-E).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PACIFIC MOISTURE RESULTING IN DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD TODAY. A LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE DRY LOWER LEVELS
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN JUST MID AND HIGH VFR CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT
SOME WEAK LIFT WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY EXPECT PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND. WARM TEMPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SFC TEMPS IN
THE 30S WILL RESULT IN RAIN...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING AND CHANGE TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR NW NEB...INCLUDING
KVTN...AND EXPECT NO PRECIP THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KOAX 302110
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PCPN TYPE AND PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. PCPN SHOULD TURN
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND LATEST RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER REGION EARLY THIS
AFTN. THIS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THIS TROUGH THOUGH AND
MOVE UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER...WITH
LIGHT PCPN PROBABLY MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE 12Z.
HAVE LOWS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE
PCPN TYPE MAY BE A MIX LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

DID MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SNOW AMOUNTS...MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT IF WE GET
ANY ACCUMULATIONS...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHTER. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL APPEARED TOO COLD...AND WENT CLOSER TO A
BLEND OF SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE SREF. NORTH
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS THE
COLUMN COOLS...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW AND WILL START TO
ACCUMULATE. A SEPARATE SYSTEM WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING GOOD LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. IT APPEARS ANOTHER LOBE OF LIFT WILL DROP
DOWN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT SOME
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW GOING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE COLD WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING WINDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WE MAY SEE SOME BELOW
ZERO NUMBERS FROM HARTINGTON AND WAYNE TOWARD TEKAMAH AND HARLAN.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. COULD NOT ARGUE WITH THAT TOO MUCH SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW AND WILL FINE TUNE THAT
LATER. MEASURABLE LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN IOWA MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME MILDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT FOR HIGHS. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SEEMS POSSIBLE BASED ON THE PATTERN...PLUS BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A BIT OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THEN
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD
THE END OF THIS CYCLE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHEAST BEFORE 12Z.
PCPN SHOULD MOVE INTO KLNK FIRST AROUND 13-18Z....WITH KOMA
FOLLOWING AROUND 16-18Z. PCPN TYPE THROUGH 18Z SHOULD MAINLY BE
-RA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/TONIGHT...KERN
SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302110
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PCPN TYPE AND PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. PCPN SHOULD TURN
TO MOSTLY SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND LATEST RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOWED A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER REGION EARLY THIS
AFTN. THIS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THIS TROUGH THOUGH AND
MOVE UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER...WITH
LIGHT PCPN PROBABLY MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE 12Z.
HAVE LOWS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE
PCPN TYPE MAY BE A MIX LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

DID MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SNOW AMOUNTS...MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY...IT APPEARS THAT IF WE GET
ANY ACCUMULATIONS...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON BUT AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHTER. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL APPEARED TOO COLD...AND WENT CLOSER TO A
BLEND OF SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE SREF. NORTH
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS THE
COLUMN COOLS...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW AND WILL START TO
ACCUMULATE. A SEPARATE SYSTEM WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING GOOD LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. IT APPEARS ANOTHER LOBE OF LIFT WILL DROP
DOWN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT SOME
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW GOING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE COLD WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING WINDS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WE MAY SEE SOME BELOW
ZERO NUMBERS FROM HARTINGTON AND WAYNE TOWARD TEKAMAH AND HARLAN.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY
AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. COULD NOT ARGUE WITH THAT TOO MUCH SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW AND WILL FINE TUNE THAT
LATER. MEASURABLE LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN IOWA MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SOME MILDER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT FOR HIGHS. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SEEMS POSSIBLE BASED ON THE PATTERN...PLUS BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A BIT OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THEN
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD
THE END OF THIS CYCLE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHEAST BEFORE 12Z.
PCPN SHOULD MOVE INTO KLNK FIRST AROUND 13-18Z....WITH KOMA
FOLLOWING AROUND 16-18Z. PCPN TYPE THROUGH 18Z SHOULD MAINLY BE
-RA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/TONIGHT...KERN
SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 301817
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1217 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CONCERN ABOUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD /ALONG THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/ AHEAD OF A LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE FIELD RESULTING IN A
SOLID CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD. 12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTED FORECAST MAX OF
52 DEGREES AND WITH THE CIRRUS WOULD NOT EXPECT TO MIX AND REACH
THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING 850 TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO REACH LOWER 50S FOR
MOST AREAS. THUS WILL LET RIDE THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS
TODAY AND SATELLITE INDICATES OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND
INCREASED ACROSS ALL AREAS TONIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY BUT JUST 20S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE LIFTING
INTO SCNTL NEB BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE...LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS SNOW COULD DEVELOP
BY MORNING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE PTYPE
RAIN VS SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE QUITE MARGINAL FOR SNOW
GROWTH WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AND H800MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS IT STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES. LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE CHANCE WILL BEGIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. LIFT IS MARGINAL AT BEST...AND AS
MENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. A 120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL DIVE FROM MONTANA TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO STRENGTHENS SOME. AS A RESULT...SNOW COULD
INCREASE FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DOWNGLIDE TAKES OVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT FOR THESE
AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ABOVE SCENARIO. IF ALL COMES
TOGETHER...THEN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. AM HESITANT AT THIS POINT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS OR
INCREASE SNOW TOTALS MUCH...AS THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY HAS
PROVEN TO BE QUITE FICKLE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WILL WATCH THE
MODEL RUNS CLOSELY TODAY AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY...AS A BATCH OF FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PULLED SOUTH INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL
MONDAY...WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR RUSHING IN TO TAKE THE PLACE OF
SUNDAY/S ARCTIC AIR. THIS MILDER AIR APPEARS TO LAST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES SOUTH WEDNESDAY. THIS
APPEARS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES
SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND BEGINS TO BUILD EAST
INTO OUR REGION BY WEEKS END. THIS WOULD BRING WITH IT SOME
POTENTIALLY VERY MILD AIR ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PACIFIC MOISTURE RESULTING IN DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD TODAY. A LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE DRY LOWER LEVELS
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN JUST MID AND HIGH VFR CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT
SOME WEAK LIFT WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY EXPECT PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND. WARM TEMPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SFC TEMPS IN
THE 30S WILL RESULT IN RAIN...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING AND CHANGE TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR NW NEB...INCLUDING
KVTN...AND EXPECT NO PRECIP THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 301817
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1217 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CONCERN ABOUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD /ALONG THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/ AHEAD OF A LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE FIELD RESULTING IN A
SOLID CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD. 12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTED FORECAST MAX OF
52 DEGREES AND WITH THE CIRRUS WOULD NOT EXPECT TO MIX AND REACH
THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING 850 TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO REACH LOWER 50S FOR
MOST AREAS. THUS WILL LET RIDE THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS
TODAY AND SATELLITE INDICATES OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND
INCREASED ACROSS ALL AREAS TONIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY BUT JUST 20S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE LIFTING
INTO SCNTL NEB BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE...LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS SNOW COULD DEVELOP
BY MORNING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE PTYPE
RAIN VS SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE QUITE MARGINAL FOR SNOW
GROWTH WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AND H800MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS IT STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES. LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE CHANCE WILL BEGIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. LIFT IS MARGINAL AT BEST...AND AS
MENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. A 120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL DIVE FROM MONTANA TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO STRENGTHENS SOME. AS A RESULT...SNOW COULD
INCREASE FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DOWNGLIDE TAKES OVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT FOR THESE
AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ABOVE SCENARIO. IF ALL COMES
TOGETHER...THEN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. AM HESITANT AT THIS POINT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS OR
INCREASE SNOW TOTALS MUCH...AS THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY HAS
PROVEN TO BE QUITE FICKLE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WILL WATCH THE
MODEL RUNS CLOSELY TODAY AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY...AS A BATCH OF FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PULLED SOUTH INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL
MONDAY...WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR RUSHING IN TO TAKE THE PLACE OF
SUNDAY/S ARCTIC AIR. THIS MILDER AIR APPEARS TO LAST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES SOUTH WEDNESDAY. THIS
APPEARS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES
SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND BEGINS TO BUILD EAST
INTO OUR REGION BY WEEKS END. THIS WOULD BRING WITH IT SOME
POTENTIALLY VERY MILD AIR ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PACIFIC MOISTURE RESULTING IN DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD TODAY. A LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE DRY LOWER LEVELS
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN JUST MID AND HIGH VFR CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT
SOME WEAK LIFT WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY EXPECT PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND. WARM TEMPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SFC TEMPS IN
THE 30S WILL RESULT IN RAIN...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING AND CHANGE TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR NW NEB...INCLUDING
KVTN...AND EXPECT NO PRECIP THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK






000
FXUS63 KGID 301809
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TEMPS CLIMBING NICELY DESPITE THICK CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD. MID-LVL
ALTOCU WILL BE INVADING FROM THE SW AND WILL SLOW DOWN THE CLIMB.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO TEMP CURVES. SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM SW OF THE TRI-CITIES...COMING UP FROM THE SW.
CLOSEST WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR ARE STILL OVER SE COLORADO.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

IT IS A COLD START...ESPECIALLY WITH TEENS E OF HWY 281. SATELLITE
SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL THICK CLOUD SHIELD OVERTAKING THE AREA. SO
CANNOT SEE ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPS BEING REACHED. SO HIGHS WERE
TRIMMED 3-5F. FCST CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO BOOSTED QUITE A BIT. HIGH
TEMPS ALWAYS END UP COLDER THAN EXPECTED WHEN CLOUDS INCREASE THE
FOLLOWING DAY AFTER A NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

QUIET CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION AND A RIDGE AXIS SET UP FROM TX INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AIDING IN THAT
RIDGE AXIS BEING IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWA...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SIDE. ALONG WITH NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT...TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...BUT EVEN BY 00Z
THIS EVENING IS STILL LOCATED OVER SRN CA. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOKS TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE W/SW SIDE OF
THE AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ALSO STARTING TO
INCREASE. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WE APPROACH
00Z...AND EVEN THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS...DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SPRINKLES. AT THE SFC...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE WITH TIME...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER CO. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
IN THE EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP...AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THAT
LEAD MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AREA. THERE REMAIN EVEN NOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH/PASS MIDNIGHT...AND THE
FORECAST POPS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITHOUT A NOTABLE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REACH DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING...AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY COLD EITHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH LIQUID DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH
RA/SN MENTIONED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO RESULT IN MINIMAL/IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.

SATURDAY...RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW
TO ACCUMULATE. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS FORECAST TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. OMEGA VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL
AND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT RATHER
PERSISTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH
MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT MOST
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE WARM LAYER WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT. AREAS THAT STAY SNOW...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES WILL LIKELY STILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
FREEZING CAUSING THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND REALLY DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING SNOW WITH
PERHAPS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES EAST AND COMES TO
AN END FOR OUR AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PRESS EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN
CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL MOVING THROUGH THIS IS WHEN WE WILL LIKELY
SEE MOST OF OUR MEAGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
WILL ESSENTIALLY COMPRISE OF THE LARGELY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTH WEST THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SATURDAY
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDER AIR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING. THIS COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SO
THAT ANY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW LEFT TO FALL BY THIS POINT IN
TIME AND THUS HAVE OVERALL LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS WINTER
STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAKING SUNDAY
LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 50S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS CANADIAN CLIPPER. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER IT WILL LIKELY BE NOTICEABLY
COLDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER NAIL
DOWN THE DETAILS ONCE WE GET A BIT CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC 20K FT.
MULTI-LAYERED CIGS WILL INVADE FROM THE SW 7-12K FT. S WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL DESCEND TO AROUND 5K FT WITH PATCHY
-RA MOVING IN. CONDS SHOULD DECAY TO MVFR AS STEADIER -RA LIFTS N.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RA TO CHANGE OVER TO IFR SNOW PRIOR TO 12Z.
S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE N EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OCCURS. ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
TYPE OF PRECIP.

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN. S WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS. SN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE BACK TO
RA AFTER 16Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 301809
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TEMPS CLIMBING NICELY DESPITE THICK CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD. MID-LVL
ALTOCU WILL BE INVADING FROM THE SW AND WILL SLOW DOWN THE CLIMB.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO TEMP CURVES. SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM SW OF THE TRI-CITIES...COMING UP FROM THE SW.
CLOSEST WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR ARE STILL OVER SE COLORADO.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

IT IS A COLD START...ESPECIALLY WITH TEENS E OF HWY 281. SATELLITE
SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL THICK CLOUD SHIELD OVERTAKING THE AREA. SO
CANNOT SEE ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPS BEING REACHED. SO HIGHS WERE
TRIMMED 3-5F. FCST CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO BOOSTED QUITE A BIT. HIGH
TEMPS ALWAYS END UP COLDER THAN EXPECTED WHEN CLOUDS INCREASE THE
FOLLOWING DAY AFTER A NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

QUIET CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION AND A RIDGE AXIS SET UP FROM TX INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AIDING IN THAT
RIDGE AXIS BEING IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWA...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SIDE. ALONG WITH NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT...TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...BUT EVEN BY 00Z
THIS EVENING IS STILL LOCATED OVER SRN CA. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOKS TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE W/SW SIDE OF
THE AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ALSO STARTING TO
INCREASE. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WE APPROACH
00Z...AND EVEN THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS...DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SPRINKLES. AT THE SFC...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE WITH TIME...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER CO. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
IN THE EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP...AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THAT
LEAD MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AREA. THERE REMAIN EVEN NOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH/PASS MIDNIGHT...AND THE
FORECAST POPS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITHOUT A NOTABLE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REACH DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING...AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY COLD EITHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH LIQUID DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH
RA/SN MENTIONED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO RESULT IN MINIMAL/IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.

SATURDAY...RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW
TO ACCUMULATE. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS FORECAST TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. OMEGA VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL
AND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT RATHER
PERSISTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH
MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT MOST
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE WARM LAYER WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT. AREAS THAT STAY SNOW...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES WILL LIKELY STILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
FREEZING CAUSING THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND REALLY DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING SNOW WITH
PERHAPS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES EAST AND COMES TO
AN END FOR OUR AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PRESS EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN
CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL MOVING THROUGH THIS IS WHEN WE WILL LIKELY
SEE MOST OF OUR MEAGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
WILL ESSENTIALLY COMPRISE OF THE LARGELY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTH WEST THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SATURDAY
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDER AIR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING. THIS COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SO
THAT ANY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW LEFT TO FALL BY THIS POINT IN
TIME AND THUS HAVE OVERALL LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS WINTER
STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAKING SUNDAY
LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 50S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS CANADIAN CLIPPER. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER IT WILL LIKELY BE NOTICEABLY
COLDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER NAIL
DOWN THE DETAILS ONCE WE GET A BIT CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC 20K FT.
MULTI-LAYERED CIGS WILL INVADE FROM THE SW 7-12K FT. S WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL DESCEND TO AROUND 5K FT WITH PATCHY
-RA MOVING IN. CONDS SHOULD DECAY TO MVFR AS STEADIER -RA LIFTS N.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RA TO CHANGE OVER TO IFR SNOW PRIOR TO 12Z.
S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE N EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD OCCURS. ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
TYPE OF PRECIP.

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN. S WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS. SN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE BACK TO
RA AFTER 16Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KOAX 301744
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1144 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL DEAL WITH IMPACT OF SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS AS AREA SITS
BETWEEN ADVANCING COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AND EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LOOK
TO BE THE MAIN AREA TO RECEIVE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP...MAINLY
LIQUID...IN OUR AREA. INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAINLY RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TEMPS STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
WHERE DEEPER LAYER OF COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
NORTH.

CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE SOUTH EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR SINKS DEEPER SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENT
OF SNOWFALL IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHICH WILL PUSH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM EASTWARD. CURRENT MODELS MOVE FEATURE
QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIMITS TIME OF MAX SNOWFALL TO
A SHORT PERIOD AROUND MIDNIGHT AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SNOWFALL IN 1-2 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW LINGERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES UP
AND DOWN AS ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM AND COLD ADVECTION MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD
THE END OF THIS CYCLE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHEAST BEFORE 12Z.
PCPN SHOULD MOVE INTO KLNK FIRST AROUND 13-18Z....WITH KOMA
FOLLWOING AROUND 16-18Z. PCPN TYPE THROUGH 18Z SHOULD MAINLY BE
-RA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 301744
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1144 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL DEAL WITH IMPACT OF SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS AS AREA SITS
BETWEEN ADVANCING COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AND EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LOOK
TO BE THE MAIN AREA TO RECEIVE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP...MAINLY
LIQUID...IN OUR AREA. INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAINLY RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TEMPS STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
WHERE DEEPER LAYER OF COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
NORTH.

CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE SOUTH EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR SINKS DEEPER SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENT
OF SNOWFALL IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHICH WILL PUSH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM EASTWARD. CURRENT MODELS MOVE FEATURE
QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIMITS TIME OF MAX SNOWFALL TO
A SHORT PERIOD AROUND MIDNIGHT AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SNOWFALL IN 1-2 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW LINGERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES UP
AND DOWN AS ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM AND COLD ADVECTION MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD
THE END OF THIS CYCLE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHEAST BEFORE 12Z.
PCPN SHOULD MOVE INTO KLNK FIRST AROUND 13-18Z....WITH KOMA
FOLLWOING AROUND 16-18Z. PCPN TYPE THROUGH 18Z SHOULD MAINLY BE
-RA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KGID 301354
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
754 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

IT IS A COLD START...ESPECIALLY WITH TEENS E OF HWY 281. SATELLITE
SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL THICK CLOUD SHIELD OVERTAKING THE AREA. SO
CANNOT SEE ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPS BEING REACHED. SO HIGHS WERE
TRIMMED 3-5F. FCST CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO BOOSTED QUITE A BIT. HIGH
TEMPS ALWAYS END UP COLDER THAN EXPECTED WHEN CLOUDS INCREASE THE
FOLLOWING DAY AFTER A NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

QUIET CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION AND A RIDGE AXIS SET UP FROM TX INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AIDING IN THAT
RIDGE AXIS BEING IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWA...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SIDE. ALONG WITH NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT...TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...BUT EVEN BY 00Z
THIS EVENING IS STILL LOCATED OVER SRN CA. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOKS TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE W/SW SIDE OF
THE AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ALSO STARTING TO
INCREASE. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WE APPROACH
00Z...AND EVEN THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS...DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SPRINKLES. AT THE SFC...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE WITH TIME...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER CO. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
IN THE EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP...AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THAT
LEAD MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AREA. THERE REMAIN EVEN NOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH/PASS MIDNIGHT...AND THE
FORECAST POPS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITHOUT A NOTABLE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REACH DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING...AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY COLD EITHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH LIQUID DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH
RA/SN MENTIONED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO RESULT IN MINIMAL/IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.

SATURDAY...RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW
TO ACCUMULATE. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS FORECAST TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. OMEGA VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL
AND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT RATHER
PERSISTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH
MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT MOST
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE WARM LAYER WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT. AREAS THAT STAY SNOW...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES WILL LIKELY STILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
FREEZING CAUSING THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND REALLY DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING SNOW WITH
PERHAPS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES EAST AND COMES TO
AN END FOR OUR AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PRESS EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN
CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL MOVING THROUGH THIS IS WHEN WE WILL LIKELY
SEE MOST OF OUR MEAGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
WILL ESSENTIALLY COMPRISE OF THE LARGELY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTH WEST THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SATURDAY
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDER AIR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING. THIS COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SO
THAT ANY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW LEFT TO FALL BY THIS POINT IN
TIME AND THUS HAVE OVERALL LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS WINTER
STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAKING SUNDAY
LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 50S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS CANADIAN CLIPPER. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER IT WILL LIKELY BE NOTICEABLY
COLDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER NAIL
DOWN THE DETAILS ONCE WE GET A BIT CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SAT MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES TOWARD THE
END...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS REMAIN QUIET...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CHANCE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING...AND ADDED IT ALONG WITH A MENTION
OF -RASN IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE THIS MORNING...BUT ARE STARTING TO MAKE THAT
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL REMAIN THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KGID 301354
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
754 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

IT IS A COLD START...ESPECIALLY WITH TEENS E OF HWY 281. SATELLITE
SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL THICK CLOUD SHIELD OVERTAKING THE AREA. SO
CANNOT SEE ADVERTISED HIGH TEMPS BEING REACHED. SO HIGHS WERE
TRIMMED 3-5F. FCST CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO BOOSTED QUITE A BIT. HIGH
TEMPS ALWAYS END UP COLDER THAN EXPECTED WHEN CLOUDS INCREASE THE
FOLLOWING DAY AFTER A NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

QUIET CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION AND A RIDGE AXIS SET UP FROM TX INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AIDING IN THAT
RIDGE AXIS BEING IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWA...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SIDE. ALONG WITH NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT...TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...BUT EVEN BY 00Z
THIS EVENING IS STILL LOCATED OVER SRN CA. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOKS TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE W/SW SIDE OF
THE AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ALSO STARTING TO
INCREASE. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WE APPROACH
00Z...AND EVEN THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS...DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SPRINKLES. AT THE SFC...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE WITH TIME...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER CO. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
IN THE EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP...AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THAT
LEAD MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AREA. THERE REMAIN EVEN NOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH/PASS MIDNIGHT...AND THE
FORECAST POPS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITHOUT A NOTABLE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REACH DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING...AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY COLD EITHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH LIQUID DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH
RA/SN MENTIONED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO RESULT IN MINIMAL/IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.

SATURDAY...RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW
TO ACCUMULATE. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS FORECAST TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. OMEGA VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL
AND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT RATHER
PERSISTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH
MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT MOST
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE WARM LAYER WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT. AREAS THAT STAY SNOW...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES WILL LIKELY STILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
FREEZING CAUSING THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND REALLY DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING SNOW WITH
PERHAPS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES EAST AND COMES TO
AN END FOR OUR AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PRESS EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN
CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL MOVING THROUGH THIS IS WHEN WE WILL LIKELY
SEE MOST OF OUR MEAGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
WILL ESSENTIALLY COMPRISE OF THE LARGELY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTH WEST THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SATURDAY
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDER AIR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING. THIS COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SO
THAT ANY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW LEFT TO FALL BY THIS POINT IN
TIME AND THUS HAVE OVERALL LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS WINTER
STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAKING SUNDAY
LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 50S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS CANADIAN CLIPPER. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER IT WILL LIKELY BE NOTICEABLY
COLDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER NAIL
DOWN THE DETAILS ONCE WE GET A BIT CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SAT MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES TOWARD THE
END...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS REMAIN QUIET...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CHANCE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING...AND ADDED IT ALONG WITH A MENTION
OF -RASN IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE THIS MORNING...BUT ARE STARTING TO MAKE THAT
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL REMAIN THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 301142
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
542 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

QUIET CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION AND A RIDGE AXIS SET UP FROM TX INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AIDING IN THAT
RIDGE AXIS BEING IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWA...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SIDE. ALONG WITH NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT...TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...BUT EVEN BY 00Z
THIS EVENING IS STILL LOCATED OVER SRN CA. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOKS TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE W/SW SIDE OF
THE AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ALSO STARTING TO
INCREASE. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WE APPROACH
00Z...AND EVEN THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS...DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SPRINKLES. AT THE SFC...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE WITH TIME...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER CO. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
IN THE EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP...AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THAT
LEAD MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AREA. THERE REMAIN EVEN NOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH/PASS MIDNIGHT...AND THE
FORECAST POPS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITHOUT A NOTABLE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REACH DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING...AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY COLD EITHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH LIQUID DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH
RA/SN MENTIONED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO RESULT IN MINIMAL/IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.

SATURDAY...RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW
TO ACCUMULATE. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS FORECAST TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. OMEGA VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL
AND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT RATHER
PERSISTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH
MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT MOST
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE WARM LAYER WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT. AREAS THAT STAY SNOW...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES WILL LIKELY STILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
FREEZING CAUSING THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND REALLY DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING SNOW WITH
PERHAPS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES EAST AND COMES TO
AN END FOR OUR AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PRESS EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN
CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL MOVING THROUGH THIS IS WHEN WE WILL LIKELY
SEE MOST OF OUR MEAGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
WILL ESSENTIALLY COMPRISE OF THE LARGELY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTH WEST THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SATURDAY
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDER AIR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING. THIS COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SO
THAT ANY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW LEFT TO FALL BY THIS POINT IN
TIME AND THUS HAVE OVERALL LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS WINTER
STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAKING SUNDAY
LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 50S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS CANADIAN CLIPPER. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER IT WILL LIKELY BE NOTICEABLY
COLDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER NAIL
DOWN THE DETAILS ONCE WE GET A BIT CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES TOWARD THE
END...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS REMAIN QUIET...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CHANCE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING...AND ADDED IT ALONG WITH A MENTION
OF -RASN IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE THIS MORNING...BUT ARE STARTING TO MAKE THAT
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL REMAIN THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KGID 301142
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
542 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

QUIET CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION AND A RIDGE AXIS SET UP FROM TX INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AIDING IN THAT
RIDGE AXIS BEING IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWA...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SIDE. ALONG WITH NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT...TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...BUT EVEN BY 00Z
THIS EVENING IS STILL LOCATED OVER SRN CA. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOKS TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE W/SW SIDE OF
THE AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ALSO STARTING TO
INCREASE. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WE APPROACH
00Z...AND EVEN THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS...DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SPRINKLES. AT THE SFC...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE WITH TIME...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER CO. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
IN THE EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP...AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THAT
LEAD MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AREA. THERE REMAIN EVEN NOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH/PASS MIDNIGHT...AND THE
FORECAST POPS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITHOUT A NOTABLE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REACH DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING...AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY COLD EITHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH LIQUID DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH
RA/SN MENTIONED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO RESULT IN MINIMAL/IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.

SATURDAY...RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW
TO ACCUMULATE. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS FORECAST TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. OMEGA VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL
AND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT RATHER
PERSISTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH
MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT MOST
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE WARM LAYER WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT. AREAS THAT STAY SNOW...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES WILL LIKELY STILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
FREEZING CAUSING THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND REALLY DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING SNOW WITH
PERHAPS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES EAST AND COMES TO
AN END FOR OUR AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PRESS EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN
CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL MOVING THROUGH THIS IS WHEN WE WILL LIKELY
SEE MOST OF OUR MEAGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
WILL ESSENTIALLY COMPRISE OF THE LARGELY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTH WEST THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SATURDAY
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDER AIR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING. THIS COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SO
THAT ANY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW LEFT TO FALL BY THIS POINT IN
TIME AND THUS HAVE OVERALL LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS WINTER
STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAKING SUNDAY
LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 50S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS CANADIAN CLIPPER. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER IT WILL LIKELY BE NOTICEABLY
COLDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER NAIL
DOWN THE DETAILS ONCE WE GET A BIT CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES TOWARD THE
END...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS REMAIN QUIET...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CHANCE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING...AND ADDED IT ALONG WITH A MENTION
OF -RASN IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE THIS MORNING...BUT ARE STARTING TO MAKE THAT
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL REMAIN THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301126
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
526 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL DEAL WITH IMPACT OF SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS AS AREA SITS
BETWEEN ADVANCING COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AND EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LOOK
TO BE THE MAIN AREA TO RECEIVE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP...MAINLY
LIQUID...IN OUR AREA. INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAINLY RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TEMPS STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
WHERE DEEPER LAYER OF COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
NORTH.

CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE SOUTH EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR SINKS DEEPER SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENT
OF SNOWFALL IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHICH WILL PUSH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM EASTWARD. CURRENT MODELS MOVE FEATURE
QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIMITS TIME OF MAX SNOWFALL TO
A SHORT PERIOD AROUND MIDNIGHT AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SNOWFALL IN 1-2 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW LINGERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES UP
AND DOWN AS ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM AND COLD ADVECTION MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z...BUT ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
MVFR CIGS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD REACH KLNK BY 12Z...BUT THIS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS EARLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 20KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 301126
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
526 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL DEAL WITH IMPACT OF SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS AS AREA SITS
BETWEEN ADVANCING COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AND EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LOOK
TO BE THE MAIN AREA TO RECEIVE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP...MAINLY
LIQUID...IN OUR AREA. INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAINLY RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TEMPS STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
WHERE DEEPER LAYER OF COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
NORTH.

CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE SOUTH EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR SINKS DEEPER SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENT
OF SNOWFALL IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHICH WILL PUSH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM EASTWARD. CURRENT MODELS MOVE FEATURE
QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIMITS TIME OF MAX SNOWFALL TO
A SHORT PERIOD AROUND MIDNIGHT AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SNOWFALL IN 1-2 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW LINGERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES UP
AND DOWN AS ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM AND COLD ADVECTION MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z...BUT ONLY AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
MVFR CIGS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD REACH KLNK BY 12Z...BUT THIS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS EARLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 20KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 301121 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
521 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS
TODAY AND SATELLITE INDICATES OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND
INCREASED ACROSS ALL AREAS TONIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY BUT JUST 20S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE LIFTING
INTO SCNTL NEB BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE...LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS SNOW COULD DEVELOP
BY MORNING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE PTYPE
RAIN VS SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE QUITE MARGINAL FOR SNOW
GROWTH WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AND H800MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS IT STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES. LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE CHANCE WILL BEGIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. LIFT IS MARGINAL AT BEST...AND AS
MENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. A 120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL DIVE FROM MONTANA TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO STRENGTHENS SOME. AS A RESULT...SNOW COULD
INCREASE FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DOWNGLIDE TAKES OVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT FOR THESE
AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ABOVE SCENARIO. IF ALL COMES
TOGETHER...THEN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. AM HESITANT AT THIS POINT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS OR
INCREASE SNOW TOTALS MUCH...AS THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY HAS
PROVEN TO BE QUITE FICKLE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WILL WATCH THE
MODEL RUNS CLOSELY TODAY AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY...AS A BATCH OF FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PULLED SOUTH INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL
MONDAY...WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR RUSHING IN TO TAKE THE PLACE OF
SUNDAY/S ARCTIC AIR. THIS MILDER AIR APPEARS TO LAST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES SOUTH WEDNESDAY. THIS
APPEARS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES
SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND BEGINS TO BUILD EAST
INTO OUR REGION BY WEEKS END. THIS WOULD BRING WITH IT SOME
POTENTIALLY VERY MILD AIR ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH 09Z. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE WRN AND NCNTL NEB.

AFTER 09Z...THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A WEAK ARCTIC BOUNDARY
FRONT WILL DROP INTO NRN NEB PERHAPS PRODUCING MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VSBY IN FOG. SOUTH...THE NAM SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS RAIN OR SNOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KGID 301015
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

QUIET CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION AND A RIDGE AXIS SET UP FROM TX INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AIDING IN THAT
RIDGE AXIS BEING IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWA...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SIDE. ALONG WITH NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT...TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...BUT EVEN BY 00Z
THIS EVENING IS STILL LOCATED OVER SRN CA. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOKS TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE W/SW SIDE OF
THE AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ALSO STARTING TO
INCREASE. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WE APPROACH
00Z...AND EVEN THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS...DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SPRINKLES. AT THE SFC...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE WITH TIME...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER CO. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
IN THE EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP...AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THAT
LEAD MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AREA. THERE REMAIN EVEN NOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH/PASS MIDNIGHT...AND THE
FORECAST POPS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITHOUT A NOTABLE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REACH DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING...AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY COLD EITHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH LIQUID DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH
RA/SN MENTIONED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO RESULT IN MINIMAL/IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.

SATURDAY...RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW
TO ACCUMULATE. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS FORECAST TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. OMEGA VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL
AND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT RATHER
PERSISTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH
MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT MOST
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE WARM LAYER WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT. AREAS THAT STAY SNOW...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES WILL LIKELY STILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
FREEZING CAUSING THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND REALLY DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING SNOW WITH
PERHAPS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES EAST AND COMES TO
AN END FOR OUR AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PRESS EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN
CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL MOVING THROUGH THIS IS WHEN WE WILL LIKELY
SEE MOST OF OUR MEAGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
WILL ESSENTIALLY COMPRISE OF THE LARGELY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTH WEST THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SATURDAY
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDER AIR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING. THIS COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SO
THAT ANY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW LEFT TO FALL BY THIS POINT IN
TIME AND THUS HAVE OVERALL LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS WINTER
STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAKING SUNDAY
LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 50S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS CANADIAN CLIPPER. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER IT WILL LIKELY BE NOTICEABLY
COLDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER NAIL
DOWN THE DETAILS ONCE WE GET A BIT CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT...PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF...BUT DO HAVE
LOWER CLOUDS WORKING IN. UNTIL THEN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 301015
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

QUIET CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION AND A RIDGE AXIS SET UP FROM TX INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AIDING IN THAT
RIDGE AXIS BEING IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWA...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SIDE. ALONG WITH NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT...TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...BUT EVEN BY 00Z
THIS EVENING IS STILL LOCATED OVER SRN CA. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOKS TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE W/SW SIDE OF
THE AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ALSO STARTING TO
INCREASE. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WE APPROACH
00Z...AND EVEN THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS...DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SPRINKLES. AT THE SFC...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE WITH TIME...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER CO. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
IN THE EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP...AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THAT
LEAD MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AREA. THERE REMAIN EVEN NOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH/PASS MIDNIGHT...AND THE
FORECAST POPS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITHOUT A NOTABLE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REACH DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING...AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY COLD EITHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH LIQUID DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH
RA/SN MENTIONED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO RESULT IN MINIMAL/IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.

SATURDAY...RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW
TO ACCUMULATE. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS FORECAST TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. OMEGA VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL
AND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT RATHER
PERSISTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH
MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT MOST
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE WARM LAYER WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT. AREAS THAT STAY SNOW...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES WILL LIKELY STILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
FREEZING CAUSING THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND REALLY DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING SNOW WITH
PERHAPS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES EAST AND COMES TO
AN END FOR OUR AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PRESS EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN
CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL MOVING THROUGH THIS IS WHEN WE WILL LIKELY
SEE MOST OF OUR MEAGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
WILL ESSENTIALLY COMPRISE OF THE LARGELY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTH WEST THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SATURDAY
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDER AIR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING. THIS COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SO
THAT ANY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW LEFT TO FALL BY THIS POINT IN
TIME AND THUS HAVE OVERALL LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS WINTER
STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAKING SUNDAY
LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 50S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS CANADIAN CLIPPER. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER IT WILL LIKELY BE NOTICEABLY
COLDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER NAIL
DOWN THE DETAILS ONCE WE GET A BIT CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT...PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF...BUT DO HAVE
LOWER CLOUDS WORKING IN. UNTIL THEN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 301015
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

QUIET CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION AND A RIDGE AXIS SET UP FROM TX INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AIDING IN THAT
RIDGE AXIS BEING IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWA...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SIDE. ALONG WITH NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT...TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...BUT EVEN BY 00Z
THIS EVENING IS STILL LOCATED OVER SRN CA. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOKS TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE W/SW SIDE OF
THE AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ALSO STARTING TO
INCREASE. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WE APPROACH
00Z...AND EVEN THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS...DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SPRINKLES. AT THE SFC...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE WITH TIME...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER CO. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
IN THE EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP...AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THAT
LEAD MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AREA. THERE REMAIN EVEN NOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH/PASS MIDNIGHT...AND THE
FORECAST POPS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITHOUT A NOTABLE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REACH DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING...AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY COLD EITHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH LIQUID DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH
RA/SN MENTIONED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO RESULT IN MINIMAL/IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.

SATURDAY...RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW
TO ACCUMULATE. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS FORECAST TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. OMEGA VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL
AND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT RATHER
PERSISTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH
MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT MOST
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE WARM LAYER WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT. AREAS THAT STAY SNOW...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES WILL LIKELY STILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
FREEZING CAUSING THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND REALLY DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING SNOW WITH
PERHAPS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES EAST AND COMES TO
AN END FOR OUR AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PRESS EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN
CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL MOVING THROUGH THIS IS WHEN WE WILL LIKELY
SEE MOST OF OUR MEAGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
WILL ESSENTIALLY COMPRISE OF THE LARGELY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTH WEST THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SATURDAY
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDER AIR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING. THIS COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SO
THAT ANY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW LEFT TO FALL BY THIS POINT IN
TIME AND THUS HAVE OVERALL LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS WINTER
STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAKING SUNDAY
LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 50S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS CANADIAN CLIPPER. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER IT WILL LIKELY BE NOTICEABLY
COLDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER NAIL
DOWN THE DETAILS ONCE WE GET A BIT CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT...PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF...BUT DO HAVE
LOWER CLOUDS WORKING IN. UNTIL THEN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 301015
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

QUIET CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION AND A RIDGE AXIS SET UP FROM TX INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AIDING IN THAT
RIDGE AXIS BEING IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWA...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SIDE. ALONG WITH NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT...TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...BUT EVEN BY 00Z
THIS EVENING IS STILL LOCATED OVER SRN CA. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOKS TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE W/SW SIDE OF
THE AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ALSO STARTING TO
INCREASE. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WE APPROACH
00Z...AND EVEN THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS...DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SPRINKLES. AT THE SFC...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE WITH TIME...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER CO. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
IN THE EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP...AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THAT
LEAD MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AREA. THERE REMAIN EVEN NOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH/PASS MIDNIGHT...AND THE
FORECAST POPS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITHOUT A NOTABLE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REACH DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING...AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY COLD EITHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH LIQUID DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH
RA/SN MENTIONED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO RESULT IN MINIMAL/IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.

SATURDAY...RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW
TO ACCUMULATE. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS FORECAST TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. OMEGA VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL
AND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT RATHER
PERSISTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH
MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT MOST
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE WARM LAYER WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT. AREAS THAT STAY SNOW...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES WILL LIKELY STILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
FREEZING CAUSING THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND REALLY DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING SNOW WITH
PERHAPS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES EAST AND COMES TO
AN END FOR OUR AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PRESS EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN
CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL MOVING THROUGH THIS IS WHEN WE WILL LIKELY
SEE MOST OF OUR MEAGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
WILL ESSENTIALLY COMPRISE OF THE LARGELY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTH WEST THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SATURDAY
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDER AIR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING. THIS COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SO
THAT ANY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW LEFT TO FALL BY THIS POINT IN
TIME AND THUS HAVE OVERALL LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS WINTER
STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAKING SUNDAY
LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 50S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS CANADIAN CLIPPER. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER IT WILL LIKELY BE NOTICEABLY
COLDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER NAIL
DOWN THE DETAILS ONCE WE GET A BIT CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT...PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF...BUT DO HAVE
LOWER CLOUDS WORKING IN. UNTIL THEN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300954
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS
TODAY AND SATELLITE INDICATES OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND
INCREASED ACROSS ALL AREAS TONIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY BUT JUST 20S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE LIFTING
INTO SCNTL NEB BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE...LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS SNOW COULD DEVELOP
BY MORNING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE PTYPE
RAIN VS SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE QUITE MARGINAL FOR SNOW
GROWTH WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AND H800MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS IT STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES. LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE CHANCE WILL BEGIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. LIFT IS MARGINAL AT BEST...AND AS
MENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. A 120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL DIVE FROM MONTANA TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO STRENGTHENS SOME. AS A RESULT...SNOW COULD
INCREASE FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DOWNGLIDE TAKES OVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT FOR THESE
AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ABOVE SCENARIO. IF ALL COMES
TOGETHER...THEN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. AM HESITANT AT THIS POINT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS OR
INCREASE SNOW TOTALS MUCH...AS THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY HAS
PROVEN TO BE QUITE FICKLE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WILL WATCH THE
MODEL RUNS CLOSELY TODAY AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY...AS A BATCH OF FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PULLED SOUTH INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL
MONDAY...WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR RUSHING IN TO TAKE THE PLACE OF
SUNDAY/S ARCTIC AIR. THIS MILDER AIR APPEARS TO LAST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES SOUTH WEDNESDAY. THIS
APPEARS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES
SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND BEGINS TO BUILD EAST
INTO OUR REGION BY WEEKS END. THIS WOULD BRING WITH IT SOME
POTENTIALLY VERY MILD AIR ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 12G18KT
AFTER 18Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CIGS NEAR BKN060 AT KLBF AFTER
00Z/31ST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300954
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS
TODAY AND SATELLITE INDICATES OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND
INCREASED ACROSS ALL AREAS TONIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY BUT JUST 20S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE LIFTING
INTO SCNTL NEB BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE...LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS SNOW COULD DEVELOP
BY MORNING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE PTYPE
RAIN VS SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE QUITE MARGINAL FOR SNOW
GROWTH WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AND H800MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS IT STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES. LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE CHANCE WILL BEGIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. LIFT IS MARGINAL AT BEST...AND AS
MENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. A 120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL DIVE FROM MONTANA TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO STRENGTHENS SOME. AS A RESULT...SNOW COULD
INCREASE FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DOWNGLIDE TAKES OVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT FOR THESE
AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ABOVE SCENARIO. IF ALL COMES
TOGETHER...THEN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. AM HESITANT AT THIS POINT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS OR
INCREASE SNOW TOTALS MUCH...AS THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY HAS
PROVEN TO BE QUITE FICKLE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WILL WATCH THE
MODEL RUNS CLOSELY TODAY AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY...AS A BATCH OF FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PULLED SOUTH INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL
MONDAY...WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR RUSHING IN TO TAKE THE PLACE OF
SUNDAY/S ARCTIC AIR. THIS MILDER AIR APPEARS TO LAST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES SOUTH WEDNESDAY. THIS
APPEARS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES
SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND BEGINS TO BUILD EAST
INTO OUR REGION BY WEEKS END. THIS WOULD BRING WITH IT SOME
POTENTIALLY VERY MILD AIR ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 12G18KT
AFTER 18Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CIGS NEAR BKN060 AT KLBF AFTER
00Z/31ST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 300913
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
313 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL DEAL WITH IMPACT OF SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS AS AREA SITS
BETWEEN ADVANCING COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AND EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LOOK
TO BE THE MAIN AREA TO RECEIVE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP...MAINLY
LIQUID...IN OUR AREA. INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAINLY RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TEMPS STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
WHERE DEEPER LAYER OF COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
NORTH.

CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE SOUTH EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR SINKS DEEPER SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENT
OF SNOWFALL IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHICH WILL PUSH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM EASTWARD. CURRENT MODELS MOVE FEATURE
QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIMITS TIME OF MAX SNOWFALL TO
A SHORT PERIOD AROUND MIDNIGHT AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SNOWFALL IN 1-2 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW LINGERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES UP
AND DOWN AS ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM AND COLD ADVECTION MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE BAND OF LOW CLOUDS HAS THINNED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A
FEW SCT FL025 LEFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY
LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG OR HAZE. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE A LITTLE MORE
MIXED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT DROP OFF AT KOFK AND KLNK SO
MAY NEED TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY AT
10 TO 15KT AND A LITTLE STRONG WIND GUSTS AT KOFK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 300913
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
313 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL DEAL WITH IMPACT OF SOUTHWEST
SYSTEM COMING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS AS AREA SITS
BETWEEN ADVANCING COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AND EASTWARD TRACK OF
THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LOOK
TO BE THE MAIN AREA TO RECEIVE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP...MAINLY
LIQUID...IN OUR AREA. INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WITH GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAINLY RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE TEMPS STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
WHERE DEEPER LAYER OF COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME DUE TO ABOVE
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
NORTH.

CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE SOUTH EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR SINKS DEEPER SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENT
OF SNOWFALL IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHICH WILL PUSH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM EASTWARD. CURRENT MODELS MOVE FEATURE
QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIMITS TIME OF MAX SNOWFALL TO
A SHORT PERIOD AROUND MIDNIGHT AS BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SNOWFALL IN 1-2 INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW LINGERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES UP
AND DOWN AS ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM AND COLD ADVECTION MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE BAND OF LOW CLOUDS HAS THINNED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A
FEW SCT FL025 LEFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY
LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG OR HAZE. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE A LITTLE MORE
MIXED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT DROP OFF AT KOFK AND KLNK SO
MAY NEED TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY AT
10 TO 15KT AND A LITTLE STRONG WIND GUSTS AT KOFK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300543
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1143 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET AND DRY...WITH THE WEATHER
TURNING MORE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A 1034MB SURFACE HIGH WAS BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THRU LAST NIGHT.  WINDS REMAIN
STEADY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTN BUT AS THE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO RELAX WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH.

IN THE COLDER AIRMASS AND WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WE ARE LOOKING FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
READINGS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  THESE TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY
CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SET UP W/E EARLY FRIDAY.  A WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT IN DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPS ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE WARMER
AIRMASS VS INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN WITH THE WESTERN
SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER INLAND IN THE SW CONUS.  HAVE RAISED TEMPS
ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW MANY AREAS WILL REACH
THE 50S...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR WARMER READINGS IF CLOUD
COVER IS NOT AS THICK OR IF WE MIX DEEPER THAN WHAT CURRENT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RIGHT OFF THE TOP...THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORECAST FOCUS WAS SPENT
ON THE PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL/TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR ONLY BEING 2-3 DAYS
AWAY...THIS WEEKEND PRECIP EVENT IS STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WE CAN AT LEAST SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS GONE UP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS...BUT VERY GENERALLY THE LATEST
"OFFICIAL" SNOWFALL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF FAIRLY
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS...WITH EASTERN COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
FAVORED TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE AND WESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARD THE LOW END. HOPEFULLY THESE NEXT 24 HOURS PAINT A MORE
CONSISTENT SCENARIO IN THE MODEL WORLD...SO THAT WE CAN HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY THE TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVES.
ALAS...WE ARE JUST NOT TO THAT POINT YET...AS THIS ULTIMATELY
HINGES ON A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY. PROBABLY THE MOST BASIC/PARAMOUNT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME IS:

- HOW WILL THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE PLAY OUT WITH THE NEAR-TO-ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY? IF THE WARMER LOW-
LEVELS WIN OUT...IT MAY BE UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING THAT ANY
NOTICEABLE ACCUMULATION TAKES PLACE.

FOR NOW THOUGH...UNLESS SNOW AMOUNTS TREND UPWARD AND/OR THIS
SYSTEM ENDS UP THROWING A CURVEBALL SUCH AS FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO
THE MIX...AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR WORTHY OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AT LEAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH STEADY
NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE FAIRLY WET/SLUSHY
NATURE OF SNOW SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS. OF
COURSE ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE SOME
MUCH-NEEDED LIQUID EQUIVALENT ON THE ORDER OF GENERALLY O.10 TO
0.30 INCH TO MANY PLACES.

BESIDES THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION-MAKER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY TIME FRAME REMAINS VOID OF ANY
PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE CONTINUING SOLE EXCEPTION OF A LOW-
CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME WITHIN
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME HINTS
FROM THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/GEM THAT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY
EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW THE DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST ONLY PEGGED TUESDAY DAYTIME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WITH THE BLATANT EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY (WHICH
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY SEEN AROUND HERE IN 4 WEEKS!)...THE
OVERALL THEME THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT READINGS SHOULD
GENERALLY AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM...WITH HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S RANGE...WITH SOME
EXCEPTIONS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. MOST NOTABLY...HIGHS FOR
MONDAY WERE RAISED 4-5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS MONDAY
HAS NOW TRENDED ROUGHLY 12 DEGREES MILDER THAN IT APPEARED 36
HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE ANY APPRECIABLE NEW SNOW COVER
COULD MODULATE THIS A BIT. GETTING BACK TO SUNDAY...THIS LOOKS TO
BE A LEGITIMATELY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S COMBINING
WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH TO BRING WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 5-15 RANGE.

NOW FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL/FORECAST DETAILS IN 12-24 HOURS
BLOCKS...

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE...THE PREDOMINANT
IF NOT ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE PLAIN LIQUID
RAIN...AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE EMANATING OUT OF
LARGE/SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA AREA. WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS SHOULD REALLY STRUGGLE TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD FOCUS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND THE HIGHEST 60-70 POPS
WERE FOCUSED OVER KS ZONES. BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT...A BIT OF SNOW
COULD TRY MIXING IN POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE
REALLY TRIED TO DOWNPLAY SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...UNLESS LATER SHIFTS END UP EXTENDING
MEASURABLE SNOW CHANCES PAST SUNRISE SUNDAY (WHICH IS
POSSIBLE)...THIS IS THE MAIN 24 HOURS OF CONCERN. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE FOCUSED MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS OVER AND NEAR THE CWA AND NO SHORTAGE OF
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE HEADS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE COLDER/DRIER LOW
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD ULTIMATELY SET
UP A "WALL" OF SORTS TO THE NORTH EDGE OF PRECIP
POTENTIAL...EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX
WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE COURSE OF THESE
24 HOURS. ITS A TOUGH CALL HOW MUCH SLUSHY SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE
DURING THE DAY...AS HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MID 30S MOST
AREAS TO NEAR-40 FAR SOUTH...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THE COOLING ALOFT
COULD OVERCOME THIS TO SOME DEGREE. NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET INTO THE
NIGHT WOULD THEN BE THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION THAT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING...AS COLDER AIR
POURS IN.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THINGS SHOULD LARGELY BE
WINDING DOWN BY SUNRISE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES BY AND
COLD LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...FELT BETTER AT
LEAST INTRODUCING A CHANCE OF NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES TO SUNDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LINGERING SNOW AND/OR A SLOWER
SYSTEM DEPARTURE. THIS WILL NEED WATCHED CLOSELY. AT OUTLINED
ABOVE...THIS IS ALMOST ASSUREDLY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
SURPRISINGLY QUICK TURN AROUND OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTHERLY IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A 10-DEGREE BOOST IN HIGHS VERSUS
SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT MONDAY NIGHT BEARS
WATCHING.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW
IN NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS AIMED MID 30S
NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED 2-4 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH AS THE ECMWF SHOWS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH...BUT HAVE ALL AREAS SOMEWHERE
IN THE 30S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME...FOR BEING A WEEK OUT...CONFIDENCE REASONABLY
HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE
LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT...PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF...BUT DO HAVE
LOWER CLOUDS WORKING IN. UNTIL THEN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KGID 300543
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1143 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET AND DRY...WITH THE WEATHER
TURNING MORE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A 1034MB SURFACE HIGH WAS BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THRU LAST NIGHT.  WINDS REMAIN
STEADY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTN BUT AS THE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO RELAX WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH.

IN THE COLDER AIRMASS AND WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WE ARE LOOKING FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
READINGS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  THESE TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY
CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SET UP W/E EARLY FRIDAY.  A WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT IN DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPS ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE WARMER
AIRMASS VS INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN WITH THE WESTERN
SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER INLAND IN THE SW CONUS.  HAVE RAISED TEMPS
ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW MANY AREAS WILL REACH
THE 50S...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR WARMER READINGS IF CLOUD
COVER IS NOT AS THICK OR IF WE MIX DEEPER THAN WHAT CURRENT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RIGHT OFF THE TOP...THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORECAST FOCUS WAS SPENT
ON THE PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL/TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR ONLY BEING 2-3 DAYS
AWAY...THIS WEEKEND PRECIP EVENT IS STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WE CAN AT LEAST SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS GONE UP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS...BUT VERY GENERALLY THE LATEST
"OFFICIAL" SNOWFALL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF FAIRLY
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS...WITH EASTERN COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
FAVORED TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE AND WESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARD THE LOW END. HOPEFULLY THESE NEXT 24 HOURS PAINT A MORE
CONSISTENT SCENARIO IN THE MODEL WORLD...SO THAT WE CAN HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY THE TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVES.
ALAS...WE ARE JUST NOT TO THAT POINT YET...AS THIS ULTIMATELY
HINGES ON A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY. PROBABLY THE MOST BASIC/PARAMOUNT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME IS:

- HOW WILL THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE PLAY OUT WITH THE NEAR-TO-ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY? IF THE WARMER LOW-
LEVELS WIN OUT...IT MAY BE UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING THAT ANY
NOTICEABLE ACCUMULATION TAKES PLACE.

FOR NOW THOUGH...UNLESS SNOW AMOUNTS TREND UPWARD AND/OR THIS
SYSTEM ENDS UP THROWING A CURVEBALL SUCH AS FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO
THE MIX...AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR WORTHY OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AT LEAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH STEADY
NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE FAIRLY WET/SLUSHY
NATURE OF SNOW SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS. OF
COURSE ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE SOME
MUCH-NEEDED LIQUID EQUIVALENT ON THE ORDER OF GENERALLY O.10 TO
0.30 INCH TO MANY PLACES.

BESIDES THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION-MAKER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY TIME FRAME REMAINS VOID OF ANY
PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE CONTINUING SOLE EXCEPTION OF A LOW-
CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME WITHIN
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME HINTS
FROM THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/GEM THAT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY
EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW THE DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST ONLY PEGGED TUESDAY DAYTIME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WITH THE BLATANT EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY (WHICH
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY SEEN AROUND HERE IN 4 WEEKS!)...THE
OVERALL THEME THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT READINGS SHOULD
GENERALLY AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM...WITH HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S RANGE...WITH SOME
EXCEPTIONS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. MOST NOTABLY...HIGHS FOR
MONDAY WERE RAISED 4-5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS MONDAY
HAS NOW TRENDED ROUGHLY 12 DEGREES MILDER THAN IT APPEARED 36
HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE ANY APPRECIABLE NEW SNOW COVER
COULD MODULATE THIS A BIT. GETTING BACK TO SUNDAY...THIS LOOKS TO
BE A LEGITIMATELY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S COMBINING
WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH TO BRING WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 5-15 RANGE.

NOW FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL/FORECAST DETAILS IN 12-24 HOURS
BLOCKS...

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE...THE PREDOMINANT
IF NOT ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE PLAIN LIQUID
RAIN...AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE EMANATING OUT OF
LARGE/SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA AREA. WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS SHOULD REALLY STRUGGLE TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD FOCUS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND THE HIGHEST 60-70 POPS
WERE FOCUSED OVER KS ZONES. BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT...A BIT OF SNOW
COULD TRY MIXING IN POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE
REALLY TRIED TO DOWNPLAY SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...UNLESS LATER SHIFTS END UP EXTENDING
MEASURABLE SNOW CHANCES PAST SUNRISE SUNDAY (WHICH IS
POSSIBLE)...THIS IS THE MAIN 24 HOURS OF CONCERN. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE FOCUSED MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS OVER AND NEAR THE CWA AND NO SHORTAGE OF
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE HEADS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE COLDER/DRIER LOW
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD ULTIMATELY SET
UP A "WALL" OF SORTS TO THE NORTH EDGE OF PRECIP
POTENTIAL...EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX
WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE COURSE OF THESE
24 HOURS. ITS A TOUGH CALL HOW MUCH SLUSHY SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE
DURING THE DAY...AS HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MID 30S MOST
AREAS TO NEAR-40 FAR SOUTH...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THE COOLING ALOFT
COULD OVERCOME THIS TO SOME DEGREE. NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET INTO THE
NIGHT WOULD THEN BE THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION THAT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING...AS COLDER AIR
POURS IN.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THINGS SHOULD LARGELY BE
WINDING DOWN BY SUNRISE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES BY AND
COLD LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...FELT BETTER AT
LEAST INTRODUCING A CHANCE OF NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES TO SUNDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LINGERING SNOW AND/OR A SLOWER
SYSTEM DEPARTURE. THIS WILL NEED WATCHED CLOSELY. AT OUTLINED
ABOVE...THIS IS ALMOST ASSUREDLY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
SURPRISINGLY QUICK TURN AROUND OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTHERLY IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A 10-DEGREE BOOST IN HIGHS VERSUS
SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT MONDAY NIGHT BEARS
WATCHING.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW
IN NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS AIMED MID 30S
NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED 2-4 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH AS THE ECMWF SHOWS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH...BUT HAVE ALL AREAS SOMEWHERE
IN THE 30S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME...FOR BEING A WEEK OUT...CONFIDENCE REASONABLY
HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE
LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT...PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF...BUT DO HAVE
LOWER CLOUDS WORKING IN. UNTIL THEN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH ANY CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND MORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300542
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
IN THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE SETTLED SOMEWHAT AND NOW SUGGEST AT
LEAST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NORTH
WINDS DECREASING AND EVEN SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WAS STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE AT 3 PM
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. EXPECT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AT LEAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER BASED ON 925 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS. IF CLOUDS CAN AT LEAST SCATTER OUT LATER
TONIGHT AS EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GET INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S.

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SINKING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME COOLER
AIR THERE...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NEAR
OR ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WOULD BE ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THAT PERIOD. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLDER AIR. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CAN DROP BELOW FREEZING...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN.

BEST DYNAMICS WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY...BUT USING A
COMBINATION OF RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF...GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO COLD AND THUS SEEMED TO
PRODUCE TOO MUCH SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
DARKNESS SETS IN...PCPN SHOULD TREND TOWARD ALL SNOW. A MODEST
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD TRACK OVER OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY
IN THE EVENING. DETAILS ON PCPN TYPE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR ACTUAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY LIFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN CASE THE SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CURRENT THINKING ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...
AND THE KEY WORD IS POTENTIAL...IS FOR AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 3 TO 4 INCHES NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. THESE WOULD BE
TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR THE WHOLE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
FOR SUNDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A BRIEF AND SMALL WARMUP MAY OCCUR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH...BUT IN GENERAL THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST POTENTIAL IS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. AMOUNTS WOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS THE WAY THINGS LOOK
RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE BAND OF LOW CLOUDS HAS THINNED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A
FEW SCT FL025 LEFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY
LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG OR HAZE. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE A LITTLE MORE
MIXED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT DROP OFF AT KOFK AND KLNK SO
MAY NEED TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY AT
10 TO 15KT AND A LITTLE STRONG WIND GUSTS AT KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 300542
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
IN THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE SETTLED SOMEWHAT AND NOW SUGGEST AT
LEAST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NORTH
WINDS DECREASING AND EVEN SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WAS STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE AT 3 PM
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. EXPECT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AT LEAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER BASED ON 925 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS. IF CLOUDS CAN AT LEAST SCATTER OUT LATER
TONIGHT AS EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GET INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S.

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SINKING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME COOLER
AIR THERE...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NEAR
OR ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WOULD BE ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THAT PERIOD. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLDER AIR. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CAN DROP BELOW FREEZING...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN.

BEST DYNAMICS WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY...BUT USING A
COMBINATION OF RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF...GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO COLD AND THUS SEEMED TO
PRODUCE TOO MUCH SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
DARKNESS SETS IN...PCPN SHOULD TREND TOWARD ALL SNOW. A MODEST
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD TRACK OVER OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY
IN THE EVENING. DETAILS ON PCPN TYPE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR ACTUAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY LIFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN CASE THE SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CURRENT THINKING ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...
AND THE KEY WORD IS POTENTIAL...IS FOR AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 3 TO 4 INCHES NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. THESE WOULD BE
TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR THE WHOLE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
FOR SUNDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A BRIEF AND SMALL WARMUP MAY OCCUR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH...BUT IN GENERAL THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST POTENTIAL IS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. AMOUNTS WOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS THE WAY THINGS LOOK
RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE BAND OF LOW CLOUDS HAS THINNED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A
FEW SCT FL025 LEFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY
LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG OR HAZE. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE A LITTLE MORE
MIXED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT DROP OFF AT KOFK AND KLNK SO
MAY NEED TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY AT
10 TO 15KT AND A LITTLE STRONG WIND GUSTS AT KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 300542
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
IN THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE SETTLED SOMEWHAT AND NOW SUGGEST AT
LEAST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NORTH
WINDS DECREASING AND EVEN SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WAS STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE AT 3 PM
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. EXPECT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AT LEAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER BASED ON 925 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS. IF CLOUDS CAN AT LEAST SCATTER OUT LATER
TONIGHT AS EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GET INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S.

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SINKING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME COOLER
AIR THERE...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NEAR
OR ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WOULD BE ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THAT PERIOD. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLDER AIR. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CAN DROP BELOW FREEZING...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN.

BEST DYNAMICS WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY...BUT USING A
COMBINATION OF RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF...GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO COLD AND THUS SEEMED TO
PRODUCE TOO MUCH SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
DARKNESS SETS IN...PCPN SHOULD TREND TOWARD ALL SNOW. A MODEST
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD TRACK OVER OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY
IN THE EVENING. DETAILS ON PCPN TYPE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR ACTUAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY LIFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN CASE THE SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CURRENT THINKING ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...
AND THE KEY WORD IS POTENTIAL...IS FOR AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 3 TO 4 INCHES NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. THESE WOULD BE
TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR THE WHOLE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
FOR SUNDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A BRIEF AND SMALL WARMUP MAY OCCUR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH...BUT IN GENERAL THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST POTENTIAL IS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. AMOUNTS WOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS THE WAY THINGS LOOK
RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE BAND OF LOW CLOUDS HAS THINNED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A
FEW SCT FL025 LEFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY
LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG OR HAZE. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE A LITTLE MORE
MIXED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT DROP OFF AT KOFK AND KLNK SO
MAY NEED TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY AT
10 TO 15KT AND A LITTLE STRONG WIND GUSTS AT KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 300542
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
IN THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE SETTLED SOMEWHAT AND NOW SUGGEST AT
LEAST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NORTH
WINDS DECREASING AND EVEN SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WAS STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE AT 3 PM
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. EXPECT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AT LEAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER BASED ON 925 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS. IF CLOUDS CAN AT LEAST SCATTER OUT LATER
TONIGHT AS EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GET INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S.

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SINKING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME COOLER
AIR THERE...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NEAR
OR ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WOULD BE ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THAT PERIOD. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLDER AIR. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CAN DROP BELOW FREEZING...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN.

BEST DYNAMICS WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY...BUT USING A
COMBINATION OF RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF...GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO COLD AND THUS SEEMED TO
PRODUCE TOO MUCH SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
DARKNESS SETS IN...PCPN SHOULD TREND TOWARD ALL SNOW. A MODEST
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD TRACK OVER OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY
IN THE EVENING. DETAILS ON PCPN TYPE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR ACTUAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY LIFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN CASE THE SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CURRENT THINKING ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...
AND THE KEY WORD IS POTENTIAL...IS FOR AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 3 TO 4 INCHES NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. THESE WOULD BE
TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR THE WHOLE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
FOR SUNDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A BRIEF AND SMALL WARMUP MAY OCCUR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH...BUT IN GENERAL THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST POTENTIAL IS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. AMOUNTS WOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS THE WAY THINGS LOOK
RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE BAND OF LOW CLOUDS HAS THINNED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST A
FEW SCT FL025 LEFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY
LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG OR HAZE. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE A LITTLE MORE
MIXED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT DROP OFF AT KOFK AND KLNK SO
MAY NEED TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY AT
10 TO 15KT AND A LITTLE STRONG WIND GUSTS AT KOFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KLBF 300535
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1135 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SWATH OF DRY AIR
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY...CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DECENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN FROM THE WEST. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT REMAINED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SUBSIDING IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
HEAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING BY 4-7 DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING IN MOST AREAS. THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO DECOUPLE EASILY AND THUS EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE AIR SETTLES. SO DID GO A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH STAYED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TOO COLD WITH LOWS
NEARING 10F FOR SOME AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MIGRATING
ONSHORE...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO START PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS SO WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED...SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THINKING THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY THIN
INITIALLY...THEN THICKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO NOT ANTICIPATING
THEM TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. WENT A BIT
WARMER FOR HIGHS AS HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCUR DECENT MIXING...LIKELY ABOVE 850MB.
THIS WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A FRONT COMING INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BEGIN PICKING UP MOISTURE APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80. IN THAT AREA...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT GAINS ENHANCEMENT FROM FRONTOGENESIS AND MARGINAL STABILITY TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT. ALTHOUGH SATURATED AIR IS LIFTED INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 0C...THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...WE THINK THAT PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. ALSO...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT
BECOMES MANIFEST WITH ENHANCEMENT ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET STREAK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO VERY EARLY SUNDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOIST
AIR LIFTING UP OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LIFT IN
THE 290-300K LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
LIFT AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 12G18KT
AFTER 18Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CIGS NEAR BKN060 AT KLBF AFTER
00Z/31ST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 300535
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1135 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SWATH OF DRY AIR
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY...CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DECENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN FROM THE WEST. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT REMAINED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SUBSIDING IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
HEAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING BY 4-7 DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING IN MOST AREAS. THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO DECOUPLE EASILY AND THUS EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE AIR SETTLES. SO DID GO A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH STAYED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TOO COLD WITH LOWS
NEARING 10F FOR SOME AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MIGRATING
ONSHORE...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO START PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS SO WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED...SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THINKING THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY THIN
INITIALLY...THEN THICKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO NOT ANTICIPATING
THEM TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. WENT A BIT
WARMER FOR HIGHS AS HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCUR DECENT MIXING...LIKELY ABOVE 850MB.
THIS WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A FRONT COMING INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BEGIN PICKING UP MOISTURE APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80. IN THAT AREA...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT GAINS ENHANCEMENT FROM FRONTOGENESIS AND MARGINAL STABILITY TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT. ALTHOUGH SATURATED AIR IS LIFTED INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 0C...THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...WE THINK THAT PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. ALSO...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT
BECOMES MANIFEST WITH ENHANCEMENT ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET STREAK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO VERY EARLY SUNDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOIST
AIR LIFTING UP OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LIFT IN
THE 290-300K LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
LIFT AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 12G18KT
AFTER 18Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CIGS NEAR BKN060 AT KLBF AFTER
00Z/31ST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 300535
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1135 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SWATH OF DRY AIR
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY...CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DECENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN FROM THE WEST. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT REMAINED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SUBSIDING IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
HEAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING BY 4-7 DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING IN MOST AREAS. THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO DECOUPLE EASILY AND THUS EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE AIR SETTLES. SO DID GO A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH STAYED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TOO COLD WITH LOWS
NEARING 10F FOR SOME AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MIGRATING
ONSHORE...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO START PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS SO WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED...SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THINKING THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY THIN
INITIALLY...THEN THICKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO NOT ANTICIPATING
THEM TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. WENT A BIT
WARMER FOR HIGHS AS HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCUR DECENT MIXING...LIKELY ABOVE 850MB.
THIS WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A FRONT COMING INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BEGIN PICKING UP MOISTURE APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80. IN THAT AREA...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT GAINS ENHANCEMENT FROM FRONTOGENESIS AND MARGINAL STABILITY TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT. ALTHOUGH SATURATED AIR IS LIFTED INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 0C...THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...WE THINK THAT PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. ALSO...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT
BECOMES MANIFEST WITH ENHANCEMENT ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET STREAK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO VERY EARLY SUNDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOIST
AIR LIFTING UP OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LIFT IN
THE 290-300K LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
LIFT AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 12G18KT
AFTER 18Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CIGS NEAR BKN060 AT KLBF AFTER
00Z/31ST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 300535
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1135 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SWATH OF DRY AIR
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY...CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DECENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN FROM THE WEST. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT REMAINED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SUBSIDING IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
HEAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING BY 4-7 DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING IN MOST AREAS. THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO DECOUPLE EASILY AND THUS EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE AIR SETTLES. SO DID GO A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH STAYED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TOO COLD WITH LOWS
NEARING 10F FOR SOME AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MIGRATING
ONSHORE...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO START PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS SO WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED...SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THINKING THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY THIN
INITIALLY...THEN THICKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO NOT ANTICIPATING
THEM TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. WENT A BIT
WARMER FOR HIGHS AS HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCUR DECENT MIXING...LIKELY ABOVE 850MB.
THIS WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A FRONT COMING INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BEGIN PICKING UP MOISTURE APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80. IN THAT AREA...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT GAINS ENHANCEMENT FROM FRONTOGENESIS AND MARGINAL STABILITY TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT. ALTHOUGH SATURATED AIR IS LIFTED INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 0C...THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...WE THINK THAT PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. ALSO...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT
BECOMES MANIFEST WITH ENHANCEMENT ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET STREAK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO VERY EARLY SUNDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOIST
AIR LIFTING UP OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LIFT IN
THE 290-300K LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
LIFT AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 12G18KT
AFTER 18Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CIGS NEAR BKN060 AT KLBF AFTER
00Z/31ST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KGID 292359
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
559 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET AND DRY...WITH THE WEATHER
TURNING MORE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A 1034MB SURFACE HIGH WAS BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THRU LAST NIGHT.  WINDS REMAIN
STEADY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTN BUT AS THE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO RELAX WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH.

IN THE COLDER AIRMASS AND WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WE ARE LOOKING FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
READINGS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  THESE TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY
CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SET UP W/E EARLY FRIDAY.  A WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT IN DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPS ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE WARMER
AIRMASS VS INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN WITH THE WESTERN
SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER INLAND IN THE SW CONUS.  HAVE RAISED TEMPS
ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW MANY AREAS WILL REACH
THE 50S...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR WARMER READINGS IF CLOUD
COVER IS NOT AS THICK OR IF WE MIX DEEPER THAN WHAT CURRENT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RIGHT OFF THE TOP...THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORECAST FOCUS WAS SPENT
ON THE PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL/TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR ONLY BEING 2-3 DAYS
AWAY...THIS WEEKEND PRECIP EVENT IS STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WE CAN AT LEAST SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS GONE UP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS...BUT VERY GENERALLY THE LATEST
"OFFICIAL" SNOWFALL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF FAIRLY
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS...WITH EASTERN COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
FAVORED TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE AND WESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARD THE LOW END. HOPEFULLY THESE NEXT 24 HOURS PAINT A MORE
CONSISTENT SCENARIO IN THE MODEL WORLD...SO THAT WE CAN HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY THE TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVES.
ALAS...WE ARE JUST NOT TO THAT POINT YET...AS THIS ULTIMATELY
HINGES ON A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY. PROBABLY THE MOST BASIC/PARAMOUNT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME IS:

- HOW WILL THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE PLAY OUT WITH THE NEAR-TO-ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY? IF THE WARMER LOW-
LEVELS WIN OUT...IT MAY BE UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING THAT ANY
NOTICEABLE ACCUMULATION TAKES PLACE.

FOR NOW THOUGH...UNLESS SNOW AMOUNTS TREND UPWARD AND/OR THIS
SYSTEM ENDS UP THROWING A CURVEBALL SUCH AS FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO
THE MIX...AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR WORTHY OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AT LEAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH STEADY
NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE FAIRLY WET/SLUSHY
NATURE OF SNOW SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS. OF
COURSE ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE SOME
MUCH-NEEDED LIQUID EQUIVALENT ON THE ORDER OF GENERALLY O.10 TO
0.30 INCH TO MANY PLACES.

BESIDES THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION-MAKER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY TIME FRAME REMAINS VOID OF ANY
PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE CONTINUING SOLE EXCEPTION OF A LOW-
CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME WITHIN
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME HINTS
FROM THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/GEM THAT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY
EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW THE DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST ONLY PEGGED TUESDAY DAYTIME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WITH THE BLATANT EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY (WHICH
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY SEEN AROUND HERE IN 4 WEEKS!)...THE
OVERALL THEME THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT READINGS SHOULD
GENERALLY AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM...WITH HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S RANGE...WITH SOME
EXCEPTIONS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. MOST NOTABLY...HIGHS FOR
MONDAY WERE RAISED 4-5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS MONDAY
HAS NOW TRENDED ROUGHLY 12 DEGREES MILDER THAN IT APPEARED 36
HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE ANY APPRECIABLE NEW SNOW COVER
COULD MODULATE THIS A BIT. GETTING BACK TO SUNDAY...THIS LOOKS TO
BE A LEGITIMATELY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S COMBINING
WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH TO BRING WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 5-15 RANGE.

NOW FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL/FORECAST DETAILS IN 12-24 HOURS
BLOCKS...

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE...THE PREDOMINANT
IF NOT ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE PLAIN LIQUID
RAIN...AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE EMANATING OUT OF
LARGE/SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA AREA. WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS SHOULD REALLY STRUGGLE TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD FOCUS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND THE HIGHEST 60-70 POPS
WERE FOCUSED OVER KS ZONES. BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT...A BIT OF SNOW
COULD TRY MIXING IN POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE
REALLY TRIED TO DOWNPLAY SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...UNLESS LATER SHIFTS END UP EXTENDING
MEASURABLE SNOW CHANCES PAST SUNRISE SUNDAY (WHICH IS
POSSIBLE)...THIS IS THE MAIN 24 HOURS OF CONCERN. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE FOCUSED MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS OVER AND NEAR THE CWA AND NO SHORTAGE OF
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE HEADS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE COLDER/DRIER LOW
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD ULTIMATELY SET
UP A "WALL" OF SORTS TO THE NORTH EDGE OF PRECIP
POTENTIAL...EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX
WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE COURSE OF THESE
24 HOURS. ITS A TOUGH CALL HOW MUCH SLUSHY SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE
DURING THE DAY...AS HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MID 30S MOST
AREAS TO NEAR-40 FAR SOUTH...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THE COOLING ALOFT
COULD OVERCOME THIS TO SOME DEGREE. NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET INTO THE
NIGHT WOULD THEN BE THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION THAT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING...AS COLDER AIR
POURS IN.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THINGS SHOULD LARGELY BE
WINDING DOWN BY SUNRISE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES BY AND
COLD LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...FELT BETTER AT
LEAST INTRODUCING A CHANCE OF NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES TO SUNDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LINGERING SNOW AND/OR A SLOWER
SYSTEM DEPARTURE. THIS WILL NEED WATCHED CLOSELY. AT OUTLINED
ABOVE...THIS IS ALMOST ASSUREDLY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
SURPRISINGLY QUICK TURN AROUND OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTHERLY IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A 10-DEGREE BOOST IN HIGHS VERSUS
SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT MONDAY NIGHT BEARS
WATCHING.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW
IN NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS AIMED MID 30S
NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED 2-4 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH AS THE ECMWF SHOWS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH...BUT HAVE ALL AREAS SOMEWHERE
IN THE 30S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME...FOR BEING A WEEK OUT...CONFIDENCE REASONABLY
HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE
LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIND WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST. NORTH WIND WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH. WIND WILL GUST
A BIT FRIDAY WITH INCREASED MIXING AS MID-LEVEL SKY COVER
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 292359
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
559 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET AND DRY...WITH THE WEATHER
TURNING MORE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A 1034MB SURFACE HIGH WAS BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THRU LAST NIGHT.  WINDS REMAIN
STEADY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTN BUT AS THE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO RELAX WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH.

IN THE COLDER AIRMASS AND WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WE ARE LOOKING FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
READINGS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  THESE TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY
CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SET UP W/E EARLY FRIDAY.  A WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT IN DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPS ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE WARMER
AIRMASS VS INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN WITH THE WESTERN
SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER INLAND IN THE SW CONUS.  HAVE RAISED TEMPS
ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW MANY AREAS WILL REACH
THE 50S...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR WARMER READINGS IF CLOUD
COVER IS NOT AS THICK OR IF WE MIX DEEPER THAN WHAT CURRENT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RIGHT OFF THE TOP...THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORECAST FOCUS WAS SPENT
ON THE PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL/TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR ONLY BEING 2-3 DAYS
AWAY...THIS WEEKEND PRECIP EVENT IS STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WE CAN AT LEAST SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS GONE UP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS...BUT VERY GENERALLY THE LATEST
"OFFICIAL" SNOWFALL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF FAIRLY
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS...WITH EASTERN COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
FAVORED TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE AND WESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARD THE LOW END. HOPEFULLY THESE NEXT 24 HOURS PAINT A MORE
CONSISTENT SCENARIO IN THE MODEL WORLD...SO THAT WE CAN HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY THE TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVES.
ALAS...WE ARE JUST NOT TO THAT POINT YET...AS THIS ULTIMATELY
HINGES ON A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY. PROBABLY THE MOST BASIC/PARAMOUNT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME IS:

- HOW WILL THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE PLAY OUT WITH THE NEAR-TO-ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY? IF THE WARMER LOW-
LEVELS WIN OUT...IT MAY BE UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING THAT ANY
NOTICEABLE ACCUMULATION TAKES PLACE.

FOR NOW THOUGH...UNLESS SNOW AMOUNTS TREND UPWARD AND/OR THIS
SYSTEM ENDS UP THROWING A CURVEBALL SUCH AS FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO
THE MIX...AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR WORTHY OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AT LEAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH STEADY
NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE FAIRLY WET/SLUSHY
NATURE OF SNOW SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS. OF
COURSE ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE SOME
MUCH-NEEDED LIQUID EQUIVALENT ON THE ORDER OF GENERALLY O.10 TO
0.30 INCH TO MANY PLACES.

BESIDES THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION-MAKER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY TIME FRAME REMAINS VOID OF ANY
PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE CONTINUING SOLE EXCEPTION OF A LOW-
CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME WITHIN
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME HINTS
FROM THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/GEM THAT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY
EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW THE DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST ONLY PEGGED TUESDAY DAYTIME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WITH THE BLATANT EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY (WHICH
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY SEEN AROUND HERE IN 4 WEEKS!)...THE
OVERALL THEME THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT READINGS SHOULD
GENERALLY AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM...WITH HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S RANGE...WITH SOME
EXCEPTIONS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. MOST NOTABLY...HIGHS FOR
MONDAY WERE RAISED 4-5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS MONDAY
HAS NOW TRENDED ROUGHLY 12 DEGREES MILDER THAN IT APPEARED 36
HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE ANY APPRECIABLE NEW SNOW COVER
COULD MODULATE THIS A BIT. GETTING BACK TO SUNDAY...THIS LOOKS TO
BE A LEGITIMATELY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S COMBINING
WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH TO BRING WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 5-15 RANGE.

NOW FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL/FORECAST DETAILS IN 12-24 HOURS
BLOCKS...

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE...THE PREDOMINANT
IF NOT ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE PLAIN LIQUID
RAIN...AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE EMANATING OUT OF
LARGE/SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA AREA. WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS SHOULD REALLY STRUGGLE TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD FOCUS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND THE HIGHEST 60-70 POPS
WERE FOCUSED OVER KS ZONES. BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT...A BIT OF SNOW
COULD TRY MIXING IN POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE
REALLY TRIED TO DOWNPLAY SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...UNLESS LATER SHIFTS END UP EXTENDING
MEASURABLE SNOW CHANCES PAST SUNRISE SUNDAY (WHICH IS
POSSIBLE)...THIS IS THE MAIN 24 HOURS OF CONCERN. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE FOCUSED MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS OVER AND NEAR THE CWA AND NO SHORTAGE OF
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE HEADS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE COLDER/DRIER LOW
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD ULTIMATELY SET
UP A "WALL" OF SORTS TO THE NORTH EDGE OF PRECIP
POTENTIAL...EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX
WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE COURSE OF THESE
24 HOURS. ITS A TOUGH CALL HOW MUCH SLUSHY SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE
DURING THE DAY...AS HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MID 30S MOST
AREAS TO NEAR-40 FAR SOUTH...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THE COOLING ALOFT
COULD OVERCOME THIS TO SOME DEGREE. NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET INTO THE
NIGHT WOULD THEN BE THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION THAT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING...AS COLDER AIR
POURS IN.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THINGS SHOULD LARGELY BE
WINDING DOWN BY SUNRISE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES BY AND
COLD LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...FELT BETTER AT
LEAST INTRODUCING A CHANCE OF NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES TO SUNDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LINGERING SNOW AND/OR A SLOWER
SYSTEM DEPARTURE. THIS WILL NEED WATCHED CLOSELY. AT OUTLINED
ABOVE...THIS IS ALMOST ASSUREDLY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
SURPRISINGLY QUICK TURN AROUND OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTHERLY IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A 10-DEGREE BOOST IN HIGHS VERSUS
SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT MONDAY NIGHT BEARS
WATCHING.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW
IN NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS AIMED MID 30S
NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED 2-4 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH AS THE ECMWF SHOWS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH...BUT HAVE ALL AREAS SOMEWHERE
IN THE 30S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME...FOR BEING A WEEK OUT...CONFIDENCE REASONABLY
HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE
LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIND WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST. NORTH WIND WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH. WIND WILL GUST
A BIT FRIDAY WITH INCREASED MIXING AS MID-LEVEL SKY COVER
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 292359
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
559 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET AND DRY...WITH THE WEATHER
TURNING MORE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A 1034MB SURFACE HIGH WAS BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THRU LAST NIGHT.  WINDS REMAIN
STEADY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTN BUT AS THE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO RELAX WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH.

IN THE COLDER AIRMASS AND WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WE ARE LOOKING FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
READINGS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  THESE TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY
CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SET UP W/E EARLY FRIDAY.  A WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT IN DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPS ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE WARMER
AIRMASS VS INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN WITH THE WESTERN
SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER INLAND IN THE SW CONUS.  HAVE RAISED TEMPS
ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW MANY AREAS WILL REACH
THE 50S...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR WARMER READINGS IF CLOUD
COVER IS NOT AS THICK OR IF WE MIX DEEPER THAN WHAT CURRENT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RIGHT OFF THE TOP...THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORECAST FOCUS WAS SPENT
ON THE PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL/TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR ONLY BEING 2-3 DAYS
AWAY...THIS WEEKEND PRECIP EVENT IS STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WE CAN AT LEAST SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS GONE UP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS...BUT VERY GENERALLY THE LATEST
"OFFICIAL" SNOWFALL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF FAIRLY
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS...WITH EASTERN COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
FAVORED TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE AND WESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARD THE LOW END. HOPEFULLY THESE NEXT 24 HOURS PAINT A MORE
CONSISTENT SCENARIO IN THE MODEL WORLD...SO THAT WE CAN HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY THE TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVES.
ALAS...WE ARE JUST NOT TO THAT POINT YET...AS THIS ULTIMATELY
HINGES ON A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY. PROBABLY THE MOST BASIC/PARAMOUNT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME IS:

- HOW WILL THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE PLAY OUT WITH THE NEAR-TO-ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY? IF THE WARMER LOW-
LEVELS WIN OUT...IT MAY BE UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING THAT ANY
NOTICEABLE ACCUMULATION TAKES PLACE.

FOR NOW THOUGH...UNLESS SNOW AMOUNTS TREND UPWARD AND/OR THIS
SYSTEM ENDS UP THROWING A CURVEBALL SUCH AS FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO
THE MIX...AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR WORTHY OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AT LEAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH STEADY
NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE FAIRLY WET/SLUSHY
NATURE OF SNOW SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS. OF
COURSE ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE SOME
MUCH-NEEDED LIQUID EQUIVALENT ON THE ORDER OF GENERALLY O.10 TO
0.30 INCH TO MANY PLACES.

BESIDES THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION-MAKER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY TIME FRAME REMAINS VOID OF ANY
PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE CONTINUING SOLE EXCEPTION OF A LOW-
CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME WITHIN
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME HINTS
FROM THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/GEM THAT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY
EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW THE DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST ONLY PEGGED TUESDAY DAYTIME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WITH THE BLATANT EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY (WHICH
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY SEEN AROUND HERE IN 4 WEEKS!)...THE
OVERALL THEME THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT READINGS SHOULD
GENERALLY AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM...WITH HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S RANGE...WITH SOME
EXCEPTIONS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. MOST NOTABLY...HIGHS FOR
MONDAY WERE RAISED 4-5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS MONDAY
HAS NOW TRENDED ROUGHLY 12 DEGREES MILDER THAN IT APPEARED 36
HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE ANY APPRECIABLE NEW SNOW COVER
COULD MODULATE THIS A BIT. GETTING BACK TO SUNDAY...THIS LOOKS TO
BE A LEGITIMATELY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S COMBINING
WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH TO BRING WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 5-15 RANGE.

NOW FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL/FORECAST DETAILS IN 12-24 HOURS
BLOCKS...

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE...THE PREDOMINANT
IF NOT ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE PLAIN LIQUID
RAIN...AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE EMANATING OUT OF
LARGE/SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA AREA. WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS SHOULD REALLY STRUGGLE TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD FOCUS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND THE HIGHEST 60-70 POPS
WERE FOCUSED OVER KS ZONES. BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT...A BIT OF SNOW
COULD TRY MIXING IN POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE
REALLY TRIED TO DOWNPLAY SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...UNLESS LATER SHIFTS END UP EXTENDING
MEASURABLE SNOW CHANCES PAST SUNRISE SUNDAY (WHICH IS
POSSIBLE)...THIS IS THE MAIN 24 HOURS OF CONCERN. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE FOCUSED MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS OVER AND NEAR THE CWA AND NO SHORTAGE OF
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE HEADS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE COLDER/DRIER LOW
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD ULTIMATELY SET
UP A "WALL" OF SORTS TO THE NORTH EDGE OF PRECIP
POTENTIAL...EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX
WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE COURSE OF THESE
24 HOURS. ITS A TOUGH CALL HOW MUCH SLUSHY SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE
DURING THE DAY...AS HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MID 30S MOST
AREAS TO NEAR-40 FAR SOUTH...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THE COOLING ALOFT
COULD OVERCOME THIS TO SOME DEGREE. NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET INTO THE
NIGHT WOULD THEN BE THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION THAT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING...AS COLDER AIR
POURS IN.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THINGS SHOULD LARGELY BE
WINDING DOWN BY SUNRISE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES BY AND
COLD LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...FELT BETTER AT
LEAST INTRODUCING A CHANCE OF NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES TO SUNDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LINGERING SNOW AND/OR A SLOWER
SYSTEM DEPARTURE. THIS WILL NEED WATCHED CLOSELY. AT OUTLINED
ABOVE...THIS IS ALMOST ASSUREDLY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
SURPRISINGLY QUICK TURN AROUND OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTHERLY IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A 10-DEGREE BOOST IN HIGHS VERSUS
SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT MONDAY NIGHT BEARS
WATCHING.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW
IN NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS AIMED MID 30S
NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED 2-4 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH AS THE ECMWF SHOWS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH...BUT HAVE ALL AREAS SOMEWHERE
IN THE 30S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME...FOR BEING A WEEK OUT...CONFIDENCE REASONABLY
HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE
LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIND WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST. NORTH WIND WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH. WIND WILL GUST
A BIT FRIDAY WITH INCREASED MIXING AS MID-LEVEL SKY COVER
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 292359
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
559 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET AND DRY...WITH THE WEATHER
TURNING MORE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A 1034MB SURFACE HIGH WAS BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THRU LAST NIGHT.  WINDS REMAIN
STEADY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTN BUT AS THE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO RELAX WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH.

IN THE COLDER AIRMASS AND WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WE ARE LOOKING FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
READINGS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  THESE TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY
CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SET UP W/E EARLY FRIDAY.  A WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT IN DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPS ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE WARMER
AIRMASS VS INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN WITH THE WESTERN
SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER INLAND IN THE SW CONUS.  HAVE RAISED TEMPS
ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW MANY AREAS WILL REACH
THE 50S...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR WARMER READINGS IF CLOUD
COVER IS NOT AS THICK OR IF WE MIX DEEPER THAN WHAT CURRENT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RIGHT OFF THE TOP...THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORECAST FOCUS WAS SPENT
ON THE PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL/TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR ONLY BEING 2-3 DAYS
AWAY...THIS WEEKEND PRECIP EVENT IS STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WE CAN AT LEAST SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS GONE UP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS...BUT VERY GENERALLY THE LATEST
"OFFICIAL" SNOWFALL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF FAIRLY
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS...WITH EASTERN COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
FAVORED TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE AND WESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARD THE LOW END. HOPEFULLY THESE NEXT 24 HOURS PAINT A MORE
CONSISTENT SCENARIO IN THE MODEL WORLD...SO THAT WE CAN HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY THE TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVES.
ALAS...WE ARE JUST NOT TO THAT POINT YET...AS THIS ULTIMATELY
HINGES ON A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY. PROBABLY THE MOST BASIC/PARAMOUNT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME IS:

- HOW WILL THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE PLAY OUT WITH THE NEAR-TO-ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY? IF THE WARMER LOW-
LEVELS WIN OUT...IT MAY BE UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING THAT ANY
NOTICEABLE ACCUMULATION TAKES PLACE.

FOR NOW THOUGH...UNLESS SNOW AMOUNTS TREND UPWARD AND/OR THIS
SYSTEM ENDS UP THROWING A CURVEBALL SUCH AS FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO
THE MIX...AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR WORTHY OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AT LEAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH STEADY
NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE FAIRLY WET/SLUSHY
NATURE OF SNOW SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS. OF
COURSE ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE SOME
MUCH-NEEDED LIQUID EQUIVALENT ON THE ORDER OF GENERALLY O.10 TO
0.30 INCH TO MANY PLACES.

BESIDES THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION-MAKER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY TIME FRAME REMAINS VOID OF ANY
PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE CONTINUING SOLE EXCEPTION OF A LOW-
CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME WITHIN
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME HINTS
FROM THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/GEM THAT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY
EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW THE DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST ONLY PEGGED TUESDAY DAYTIME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WITH THE BLATANT EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY (WHICH
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY SEEN AROUND HERE IN 4 WEEKS!)...THE
OVERALL THEME THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT READINGS SHOULD
GENERALLY AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM...WITH HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S RANGE...WITH SOME
EXCEPTIONS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. MOST NOTABLY...HIGHS FOR
MONDAY WERE RAISED 4-5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS MONDAY
HAS NOW TRENDED ROUGHLY 12 DEGREES MILDER THAN IT APPEARED 36
HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE ANY APPRECIABLE NEW SNOW COVER
COULD MODULATE THIS A BIT. GETTING BACK TO SUNDAY...THIS LOOKS TO
BE A LEGITIMATELY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S COMBINING
WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH TO BRING WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 5-15 RANGE.

NOW FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL/FORECAST DETAILS IN 12-24 HOURS
BLOCKS...

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE...THE PREDOMINANT
IF NOT ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE PLAIN LIQUID
RAIN...AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE EMANATING OUT OF
LARGE/SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA AREA. WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS SHOULD REALLY STRUGGLE TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD FOCUS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND THE HIGHEST 60-70 POPS
WERE FOCUSED OVER KS ZONES. BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT...A BIT OF SNOW
COULD TRY MIXING IN POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE
REALLY TRIED TO DOWNPLAY SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...UNLESS LATER SHIFTS END UP EXTENDING
MEASURABLE SNOW CHANCES PAST SUNRISE SUNDAY (WHICH IS
POSSIBLE)...THIS IS THE MAIN 24 HOURS OF CONCERN. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE FOCUSED MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS OVER AND NEAR THE CWA AND NO SHORTAGE OF
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE HEADS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE COLDER/DRIER LOW
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD ULTIMATELY SET
UP A "WALL" OF SORTS TO THE NORTH EDGE OF PRECIP
POTENTIAL...EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX
WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE COURSE OF THESE
24 HOURS. ITS A TOUGH CALL HOW MUCH SLUSHY SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE
DURING THE DAY...AS HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MID 30S MOST
AREAS TO NEAR-40 FAR SOUTH...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THE COOLING ALOFT
COULD OVERCOME THIS TO SOME DEGREE. NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET INTO THE
NIGHT WOULD THEN BE THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION THAT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING...AS COLDER AIR
POURS IN.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THINGS SHOULD LARGELY BE
WINDING DOWN BY SUNRISE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES BY AND
COLD LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...FELT BETTER AT
LEAST INTRODUCING A CHANCE OF NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES TO SUNDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LINGERING SNOW AND/OR A SLOWER
SYSTEM DEPARTURE. THIS WILL NEED WATCHED CLOSELY. AT OUTLINED
ABOVE...THIS IS ALMOST ASSUREDLY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
SURPRISINGLY QUICK TURN AROUND OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTHERLY IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A 10-DEGREE BOOST IN HIGHS VERSUS
SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT MONDAY NIGHT BEARS
WATCHING.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW
IN NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS AIMED MID 30S
NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED 2-4 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH AS THE ECMWF SHOWS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH...BUT HAVE ALL AREAS SOMEWHERE
IN THE 30S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME...FOR BEING A WEEK OUT...CONFIDENCE REASONABLY
HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE
LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIND WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST. NORTH WIND WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH. WIND WILL GUST
A BIT FRIDAY WITH INCREASED MIXING AS MID-LEVEL SKY COVER
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 292345
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
545 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SWATH OF DRY AIR
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY...CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DECENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN FROM THE WEST. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT REMAINED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SUBSIDING IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
HEAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING BY 4-7 DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING IN MOST AREAS. THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO DECOUPLE EASILY AND THUS EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE AIR SETTLES. SO DID GO A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH STAYED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TOO COLD WITH LOWS
NEARING 10F FOR SOME AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MIGRATING
ONSHORE...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO START PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS SO WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED...SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THINKING THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY THIN
INITIALLY...THEN THICKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO NOT ANTICIPATING
THEM TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. WENT A BIT
WARMER FOR HIGHS AS HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCUR DECENT MIXING...LIKELY ABOVE 850MB.
THIS WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A FRONT COMING INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BEGIN PICKING UP MOISTURE APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80. IN THAT AREA...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT GAINS ENHANCEMENT FROM FRONTOGENESIS AND MARGINAL STABILITY TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT. ALTHOUGH SATURATED AIR IS LIFTED INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 0C...THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...WE THINK THAT PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. ALSO...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT
BECOMES MANIFEST WITH ENHANCEMENT ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET STREAK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO VERY EARLY SUNDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOIST
AIR LIFTING UP OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LIFT IN
THE 290-300K LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
LIFT AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 12G18KT
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 292345
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
545 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SWATH OF DRY AIR
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY...CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DECENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN FROM THE WEST. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT REMAINED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SUBSIDING IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
HEAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING BY 4-7 DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING IN MOST AREAS. THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO DECOUPLE EASILY AND THUS EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE AIR SETTLES. SO DID GO A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH STAYED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TOO COLD WITH LOWS
NEARING 10F FOR SOME AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MIGRATING
ONSHORE...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO START PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS SO WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED...SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THINKING THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY THIN
INITIALLY...THEN THICKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO NOT ANTICIPATING
THEM TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. WENT A BIT
WARMER FOR HIGHS AS HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCUR DECENT MIXING...LIKELY ABOVE 850MB.
THIS WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A FRONT COMING INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BEGIN PICKING UP MOISTURE APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80. IN THAT AREA...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT GAINS ENHANCEMENT FROM FRONTOGENESIS AND MARGINAL STABILITY TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT. ALTHOUGH SATURATED AIR IS LIFTED INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 0C...THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...WE THINK THAT PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. ALSO...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT
BECOMES MANIFEST WITH ENHANCEMENT ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET STREAK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO VERY EARLY SUNDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOIST
AIR LIFTING UP OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LIFT IN
THE 290-300K LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
LIFT AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 12G18KT
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KOAX 292342
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
542 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
IN THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE SETTLED SOMEWHAT AND NOW SUGGEST AT
LEAST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NORTH
WINDS DECREASING AND EVEN SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WAS STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE AT 3 PM
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. EXPECT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AT LEAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER BASED ON 925 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS. IF CLOUDS CAN AT LEAST SCATTER OUT LATER
TONIGHT AS EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GET INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S.

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SINKING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME COOLER
AIR THERE...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NEAR
OR ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WOULD BE ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THAT PERIOD. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLDER AIR. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CAN DROP BELOW FREEZING...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN.

BEST DYNAMICS WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY...BUT USING A
COMBINATION OF RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF...GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO COLD AND THUS SEEMED TO
PRODUCE TOO MUCH SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
DARKNESS SETS IN...PCPN SHOULD TREND TOWARD ALL SNOW. A MODEST
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD TRACK OVER OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY
IN THE EVENING. DETAILS ON PCPN TYPE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR ACTUAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY LIFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN CASE THE SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CURRENT THINKING ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...
AND THE KEY WORD IS POTENTIAL...IS FOR AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 3 TO 4 INCHES NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. THESE WOULD BE
TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR THE WHOLE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
FOR SUNDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A BRIEF AND SMALL WARMUP MAY OCCUR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH...BUT IN GENERAL THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST POTENTIAL IS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. AMOUNTS WOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS THE WAY THINGS LOOK
RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR/VFR LOW CLOUDS ARE HUGGING THE MISSOURI RIVER AND THE RAP
MAINTAINS THIS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SCT-BKN FL035 AT KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING
AND MONITOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLACKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 292342
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
542 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
IN THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE SETTLED SOMEWHAT AND NOW SUGGEST AT
LEAST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NORTH
WINDS DECREASING AND EVEN SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WAS STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE AT 3 PM
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. EXPECT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AT LEAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER BASED ON 925 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS. IF CLOUDS CAN AT LEAST SCATTER OUT LATER
TONIGHT AS EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GET INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S.

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SINKING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME COOLER
AIR THERE...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NEAR
OR ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WOULD BE ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THAT PERIOD. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLDER AIR. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CAN DROP BELOW FREEZING...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN.

BEST DYNAMICS WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY...BUT USING A
COMBINATION OF RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF...GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO COLD AND THUS SEEMED TO
PRODUCE TOO MUCH SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
DARKNESS SETS IN...PCPN SHOULD TREND TOWARD ALL SNOW. A MODEST
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD TRACK OVER OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY
IN THE EVENING. DETAILS ON PCPN TYPE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR ACTUAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY LIFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN CASE THE SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CURRENT THINKING ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...
AND THE KEY WORD IS POTENTIAL...IS FOR AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 3 TO 4 INCHES NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. THESE WOULD BE
TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR THE WHOLE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
FOR SUNDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A BRIEF AND SMALL WARMUP MAY OCCUR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH...BUT IN GENERAL THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST POTENTIAL IS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. AMOUNTS WOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS THE WAY THINGS LOOK
RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR/VFR LOW CLOUDS ARE HUGGING THE MISSOURI RIVER AND THE RAP
MAINTAINS THIS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SCT-BKN FL035 AT KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING
AND MONITOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLACKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KGID 292212
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET AND DRY...WITH THE WEATHER
TURNING MORE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A 1034MB SURFACE HIGH WAS BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THRU LAST NIGHT.  WINDS REMAIN
STEADY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTN BUT AS THE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO RELAX WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH.

IN THE COLDER AIRMASS AND WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...WE ARE LOOKING FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE
READINGS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  THESE TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY
CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SET UP W/E EARLY FRIDAY.  A WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT IN DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPS ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE WARMER
AIRMASS VS INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN WITH THE WESTERN
SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER INLAND IN THE SW CONUS.  HAVE RAISED TEMPS
ONLY SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW MANY AREAS WILL REACH
THE 50S...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR WARMER READINGS IF CLOUD
COVER IS NOT AS THICK OR IF WE MIX DEEPER THAN WHAT CURRENT MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

RIGHT OFF THE TOP...THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORECAST FOCUS WAS SPENT
ON THE PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL/TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR ONLY BEING 2-3 DAYS
AWAY...THIS WEEKEND PRECIP EVENT IS STILL CARRYING A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE OVERALL TRENDS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WE CAN AT LEAST SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS GONE UP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS...BUT VERY GENERALLY THE LATEST
"OFFICIAL" SNOWFALL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF FAIRLY
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS...WITH EASTERN COUNTIES SLIGHTLY
FAVORED TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE AND WESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARD THE LOW END. HOPEFULLY THESE NEXT 24 HOURS PAINT A MORE
CONSISTENT SCENARIO IN THE MODEL WORLD...SO THAT WE CAN HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY THE TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARRIVES.
ALAS...WE ARE JUST NOT TO THAT POINT YET...AS THIS ULTIMATELY
HINGES ON A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY. PROBABLY THE MOST BASIC/PARAMOUNT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME IS:

- HOW WILL THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE PLAY OUT WITH THE NEAR-TO-ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY? IF THE WARMER LOW-
LEVELS WIN OUT...IT MAY BE UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING THAT ANY
NOTICEABLE ACCUMULATION TAKES PLACE.

FOR NOW THOUGH...UNLESS SNOW AMOUNTS TREND UPWARD AND/OR THIS
SYSTEM ENDS UP THROWING A CURVEBALL SUCH AS FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO
THE MIX...AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR WORTHY OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AT LEAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH STEADY
NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE FAIRLY WET/SLUSHY
NATURE OF SNOW SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS. OF
COURSE ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE SOME
MUCH-NEEDED LIQUID EQUIVALENT ON THE ORDER OF GENERALLY O.10 TO
0.30 INCH TO MANY PLACES.

BESIDES THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION-MAKER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY TIME FRAME REMAINS VOID OF ANY
PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE CONTINUING SOLE EXCEPTION OF A LOW-
CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME WITHIN
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME HINTS
FROM THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/GEM THAT SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP MAY
EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW THE DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED TO
INITIALIZE THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST ONLY PEGGED TUESDAY DAYTIME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...WITH THE BLATANT EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY (WHICH
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY SEEN AROUND HERE IN 4 WEEKS!)...THE
OVERALL THEME THROUGH THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT READINGS SHOULD
GENERALLY AVERAGE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM...WITH HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S RANGE...WITH SOME
EXCEPTIONS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. MOST NOTABLY...HIGHS FOR
MONDAY WERE RAISED 4-5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS MONDAY
HAS NOW TRENDED ROUGHLY 12 DEGREES MILDER THAN IT APPEARED 36
HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE ANY APPRECIABLE NEW SNOW COVER
COULD MODULATE THIS A BIT. GETTING BACK TO SUNDAY...THIS LOOKS TO
BE A LEGITIMATELY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S COMBINING
WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WIND AROUND 20 MPH TO BRING WIND CHILL VALUES
GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 5-15 RANGE.

NOW FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL/FORECAST DETAILS IN 12-24 HOURS
BLOCKS...

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE...THE PREDOMINANT
IF NOT ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE PLAIN LIQUID
RAIN...AS BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE EMANATING OUT OF
LARGE/SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA AREA. WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPS SHOULD REALLY STRUGGLE TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD FOCUS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND THE HIGHEST 60-70 POPS
WERE FOCUSED OVER KS ZONES. BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT...A BIT OF SNOW
COULD TRY MIXING IN POST-MIDNIGHT...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE
REALLY TRIED TO DOWNPLAY SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...UNLESS LATER SHIFTS END UP EXTENDING
MEASURABLE SNOW CHANCES PAST SUNRISE SUNDAY (WHICH IS
POSSIBLE)...THIS IS THE MAIN 24 HOURS OF CONCERN. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE FOCUSED MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS OVER AND NEAR THE CWA AND NO SHORTAGE OF
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE HEADS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE COLDER/DRIER LOW
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD ULTIMATELY SET
UP A "WALL" OF SORTS TO THE NORTH EDGE OF PRECIP
POTENTIAL...EXPECT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX
WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE COURSE OF THESE
24 HOURS. ITS A TOUGH CALL HOW MUCH SLUSHY SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE
DURING THE DAY...AS HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE MID 30S MOST
AREAS TO NEAR-40 FAR SOUTH...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THE COOLING ALOFT
COULD OVERCOME THIS TO SOME DEGREE. NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET INTO THE
NIGHT WOULD THEN BE THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION THAT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING...AS COLDER AIR
POURS IN.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THINGS SHOULD LARGELY BE
WINDING DOWN BY SUNRISE AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSES BY AND
COLD LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWARD...FELT BETTER AT
LEAST INTRODUCING A CHANCE OF NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES TO SUNDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LINGERING SNOW AND/OR A SLOWER
SYSTEM DEPARTURE. THIS WILL NEED WATCHED CLOSELY. AT OUTLINED
ABOVE...THIS IS ALMOST ASSUREDLY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
SURPRISINGLY QUICK TURN AROUND OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTHERLY IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A 10-DEGREE BOOST IN HIGHS VERSUS
SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT MONDAY NIGHT BEARS
WATCHING.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW
IN NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS AIMED MID 30S
NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED 2-4 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH AS THE ECMWF SHOWS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH...BUT HAVE ALL AREAS SOMEWHERE
IN THE 30S.

THURSDAY DAYTIME...FOR BEING A WEEK OUT...CONFIDENCE REASONABLY
HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE
LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE AND THEN WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY IN
RETURN FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER THIS AFTN THEN LIMITED CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED THRU 18Z FRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES
IN THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE SETTLED SOMEWHAT AND NOW SUGGEST AT
LEAST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NORTH
WINDS DECREASING AND EVEN SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WAS STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE AT 3 PM
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. EXPECT THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AT LEAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE. LATEST RUNS OF
THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER BASED ON 925 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS. IF CLOUDS CAN AT LEAST SCATTER OUT LATER
TONIGHT AS EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GET INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S.

MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SINKING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME COOLER
AIR THERE...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NEAR
OR ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WOULD BE ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THAT PERIOD. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLDER AIR. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CAN DROP BELOW FREEZING...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN.

BEST DYNAMICS WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY...BUT USING A
COMBINATION OF RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF...GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO COLD AND THUS SEEMED TO
PRODUCE TOO MUCH SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
DARKNESS SETS IN...PCPN SHOULD TREND TOWARD ALL SNOW. A MODEST
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD TRACK OVER OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY CONTINUE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY
IN THE EVENING. DETAILS ON PCPN TYPE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR ACTUAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY LIFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN CASE THE SYSTEM
SLOWS DOWN A BIT. CURRENT THINKING ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...
AND THE KEY WORD IS POTENTIAL...IS FOR AROUND 2 INCHES OR MORE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA...POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 3 TO 4 INCHES NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. THESE WOULD BE
TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR THE WHOLE EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER
FOR SUNDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A BRIEF AND SMALL WARMUP MAY OCCUR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH...BUT IN GENERAL THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST POTENTIAL IS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. AMOUNTS WOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS THE WAY THINGS LOOK
RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST SFC WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 292054
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
254 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SWATH OF DRY AIR
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY...CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DECENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN FROM THE WEST. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT REMAINED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SUBSIDING IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
HEAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING BY 4-7 DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING IN MOST AREAS. THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO DECOUPLE EASILY AND THUS EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE AIR SETTLES. SO DID GO A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH STAYED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TOO COLD WITH LOWS
NEARING 10F FOR SOME AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MIGRATING
ONSHORE...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO START PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS SO WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED...SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THINKING THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY THIN
INITIALLY...THEN THICKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO NOT ANTICIPATING
THEM TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. WENT A BIT
WARMER FOR HIGHS AS HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCUR DECENT MIXING...LIKELY ABOVE 850MB.
THIS WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A FRONT COMING INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BEGIN PICKING UP MOISTURE APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80. IN THAT AREA...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT GAINS ENHANCEMENT FROM FRONTOGENESIS AND MARGINAL STABILITY TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT. ALTHOUGH SATURATED AIR IS LIFTED INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 0C...THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...WE THINK THAT PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. ALSO...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT
BECOMES MANIFEST WITH ENHANCEMENT ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET STREAK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO VERY EARLY SUNDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOIST
AIR LIFTING UP OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LIFT IN
THE 290-300K LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
LIFT AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
DOES HAVE A TREND SHOWING CHANGING WIND CONDITIONS AS THE CURRENT
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH NEAR MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEAR SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BE VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
12KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 292054
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
254 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SWATH OF DRY AIR
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY...CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DECENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN FROM THE WEST. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT REMAINED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SUBSIDING IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
HEAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING BY 4-7 DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING IN MOST AREAS. THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO DECOUPLE EASILY AND THUS EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE AIR SETTLES. SO DID GO A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH STAYED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TOO COLD WITH LOWS
NEARING 10F FOR SOME AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MIGRATING
ONSHORE...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO START PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS SO WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED...SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THINKING THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY THIN
INITIALLY...THEN THICKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO NOT ANTICIPATING
THEM TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. WENT A BIT
WARMER FOR HIGHS AS HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCUR DECENT MIXING...LIKELY ABOVE 850MB.
THIS WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A FRONT COMING INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BEGIN PICKING UP MOISTURE APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80. IN THAT AREA...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT GAINS ENHANCEMENT FROM FRONTOGENESIS AND MARGINAL STABILITY TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT. ALTHOUGH SATURATED AIR IS LIFTED INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 0C...THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...WE THINK THAT PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. ALSO...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT
BECOMES MANIFEST WITH ENHANCEMENT ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET STREAK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO VERY EARLY SUNDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOIST
AIR LIFTING UP OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LIFT IN
THE 290-300K LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
LIFT AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
DOES HAVE A TREND SHOWING CHANGING WIND CONDITIONS AS THE CURRENT
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH NEAR MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEAR SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BE VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
12KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 291732
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR BUILDS IN ALOFT
AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. THE CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
WEST WARMING THOSE AREAS...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MIXING TO 850MB CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL
INCREASING THE ONGOING FORECAST OF NEAR 40 TO MID 40S STILL LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
DOES HAVE A TREND SHOWING CHANGING WIND CONDITIONS AS THE CURRENT
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH NEAR MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEAR SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BE VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
12KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 291732
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR BUILDS IN ALOFT
AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. THE CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
WEST WARMING THOSE AREAS...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MIXING TO 850MB CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL
INCREASING THE ONGOING FORECAST OF NEAR 40 TO MID 40S STILL LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
DOES HAVE A TREND SHOWING CHANGING WIND CONDITIONS AS THE CURRENT
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH NEAR MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEAR SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BE VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
12KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 291732
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR BUILDS IN ALOFT
AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. THE CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
WEST WARMING THOSE AREAS...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MIXING TO 850MB CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL
INCREASING THE ONGOING FORECAST OF NEAR 40 TO MID 40S STILL LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
DOES HAVE A TREND SHOWING CHANGING WIND CONDITIONS AS THE CURRENT
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH NEAR MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEAR SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BE VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
12KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 291732
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR BUILDS IN ALOFT
AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. THE CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
WEST WARMING THOSE AREAS...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MIXING TO 850MB CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL
INCREASING THE ONGOING FORECAST OF NEAR 40 TO MID 40S STILL LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
DOES HAVE A TREND SHOWING CHANGING WIND CONDITIONS AS THE CURRENT
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH NEAR MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEAR SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BE VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
12KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KOAX 291725
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALTHOUGH LATEST TREND
APPEARS TO BE A DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 12Z. WILL
ADD REMAINING SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION AT
7 AM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST ON FRIDAY.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY
FOR THE MOST PART. DRIER AIR COMING IN WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR
LOOKS TO LIMIT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH A SHARP CUTOFF
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. PRECIP LIKELY
TO START OFF AS LIQUID ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH UPPER BOUND NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER
OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COLDEST AIR HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SOME
MODERATION RETURNS AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. MORE COLD AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE CLIPPER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST SFC WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291725
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALTHOUGH LATEST TREND
APPEARS TO BE A DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 12Z. WILL
ADD REMAINING SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION AT
7 AM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST ON FRIDAY.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY
FOR THE MOST PART. DRIER AIR COMING IN WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR
LOOKS TO LIMIT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH A SHARP CUTOFF
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. PRECIP LIKELY
TO START OFF AS LIQUID ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH UPPER BOUND NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER
OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COLDEST AIR HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SOME
MODERATION RETURNS AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. MORE COLD AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE CLIPPER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST SFC WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291725
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALTHOUGH LATEST TREND
APPEARS TO BE A DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 12Z. WILL
ADD REMAINING SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION AT
7 AM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST ON FRIDAY.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY
FOR THE MOST PART. DRIER AIR COMING IN WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR
LOOKS TO LIMIT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH A SHARP CUTOFF
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. PRECIP LIKELY
TO START OFF AS LIQUID ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH UPPER BOUND NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER
OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COLDEST AIR HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SOME
MODERATION RETURNS AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. MORE COLD AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE CLIPPER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST SFC WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291725
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALTHOUGH LATEST TREND
APPEARS TO BE A DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 12Z. WILL
ADD REMAINING SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION AT
7 AM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST ON FRIDAY.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY
FOR THE MOST PART. DRIER AIR COMING IN WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR
LOOKS TO LIMIT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH A SHARP CUTOFF
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. PRECIP LIKELY
TO START OFF AS LIQUID ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH UPPER BOUND NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER
OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COLDEST AIR HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SOME
MODERATION RETURNS AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. MORE COLD AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE CLIPPER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST SFC WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KGID 291714
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1114 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE CWA
CURRENTLY SITTING IN BETWEEN TWO WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES...BUT
WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...NEITHER ARE/WILL BE
BRINGING ANY PRECIP TO THE AREA. THOUGH A TOUCH QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED...A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AN AREA EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT HELPS TO
KEEP NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER IS HELPING KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH RANGE AT 3 AM FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...REALLY OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA. NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY LIE WITH WIND SPEEDS AND HOW QUICKLY
THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DISSIPATES/SHIFTS OUT OF THE CWA.
AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON THE
TIGHTER SIDE THIS MORNING...BEFORE RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.
EVEN WITH THE RELAXING GRADIENT...EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE
GUSTY SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. CURRENT 20 TO 30/GUST
40 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SUSTAINED TO BE IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE/GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY THIS
EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LINGERING AROUND INTO TONIGHT...THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SWITCHING MORE
TO THE SOUTH AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOOKING AT SKY
COVER...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS STRATUS
AFFECTING ESP THE E/NERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY
MIDDAY...SO UPPED SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THAT. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. OBVIOUSLY THIS STRATUS STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED COULD AFFECT HIGHS TODAY...BUT AT THIS POINT
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S. STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...JUST NOT AS MUCH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS UNFORTUNATELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
NOT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER...ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS/LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. THE MAIN STORYLINE IS THAT WE WILL TRANSITION FROM OUR
RECENT RECORD WARMTH...TO A PATTERN THAT IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL JANUARY. THE SFC
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL HELP TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS ELEVATING OUR DEW POINTS AND POSSIBLY SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF NEVER REALLY EJECT THIS CUT OFF LOW OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT RATHER SINK IT FURTHER SOUTH YET INTO MEXICO WHERE
IT ESSENTIALLY DIES OUT. CONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF THE FORCING WILL
BE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND HENCE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS FAR NORTH AS
NEBRASKA...BUT THIS LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO WORK WITH THE MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...THIS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY NOT REALLY
GET GOING AND TAP THE BEST MOISTURE UNTIL IT IS EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. CONSEQUENTLY...AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT OUR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE WE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS (50 TO 70 PERCENT)...ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT AND MOST OF ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY MELT ON CONTACT
GIVEN SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE
STILL A GOOD DISTANCE APART CALLING FOR ANYWHERE FROM NO SNOW TO 3
TO 4 INCHES. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM...BUT AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
WORDING WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER
SYSTEMS (MAINLY DRY)...WITH COLD FRONTS SENDING REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THE CLIPPERS WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED SO IF WE SEE ANY SNOW...IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH. SUNDAY
COULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER WHEN
HIGHS MIGHT ONLY REACH THE MID 20S...OVER 40 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
THEN WEDNESDAY IS A BIG QUESTION MARK WITH WIDELY DIVERGENT
FORECAST MODELS. THE NEXT CLIPPER ACCORDING TO A FEW MODELS MAY
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR...BUT OUR SUPERBLEND OF MODELS IS
NOT REALLY REFLECTING THIS POSSIBILITY YET. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE RECORD WARMTH IS OVER FOR AT LEAST AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE AND THEN WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY IN
RETURN FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER THIS AFTN THEN LIMITED CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED THRU 18Z FRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 291714
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1114 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE CWA
CURRENTLY SITTING IN BETWEEN TWO WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES...BUT
WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...NEITHER ARE/WILL BE
BRINGING ANY PRECIP TO THE AREA. THOUGH A TOUCH QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED...A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AN AREA EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT HELPS TO
KEEP NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER IS HELPING KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH RANGE AT 3 AM FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...REALLY OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA. NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY LIE WITH WIND SPEEDS AND HOW QUICKLY
THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DISSIPATES/SHIFTS OUT OF THE CWA.
AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON THE
TIGHTER SIDE THIS MORNING...BEFORE RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.
EVEN WITH THE RELAXING GRADIENT...EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE
GUSTY SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. CURRENT 20 TO 30/GUST
40 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SUSTAINED TO BE IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE/GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY THIS
EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LINGERING AROUND INTO TONIGHT...THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SWITCHING MORE
TO THE SOUTH AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOOKING AT SKY
COVER...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS STRATUS
AFFECTING ESP THE E/NERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY
MIDDAY...SO UPPED SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THAT. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. OBVIOUSLY THIS STRATUS STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED COULD AFFECT HIGHS TODAY...BUT AT THIS POINT
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S. STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...JUST NOT AS MUCH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS UNFORTUNATELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
NOT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER...ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS/LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. THE MAIN STORYLINE IS THAT WE WILL TRANSITION FROM OUR
RECENT RECORD WARMTH...TO A PATTERN THAT IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL JANUARY. THE SFC
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL HELP TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS ELEVATING OUR DEW POINTS AND POSSIBLY SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF NEVER REALLY EJECT THIS CUT OFF LOW OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT RATHER SINK IT FURTHER SOUTH YET INTO MEXICO WHERE
IT ESSENTIALLY DIES OUT. CONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF THE FORCING WILL
BE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND HENCE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS FAR NORTH AS
NEBRASKA...BUT THIS LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO WORK WITH THE MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...THIS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY NOT REALLY
GET GOING AND TAP THE BEST MOISTURE UNTIL IT IS EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. CONSEQUENTLY...AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT OUR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE WE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS (50 TO 70 PERCENT)...ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT AND MOST OF ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY MELT ON CONTACT
GIVEN SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE
STILL A GOOD DISTANCE APART CALLING FOR ANYWHERE FROM NO SNOW TO 3
TO 4 INCHES. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM...BUT AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
WORDING WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER
SYSTEMS (MAINLY DRY)...WITH COLD FRONTS SENDING REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THE CLIPPERS WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED SO IF WE SEE ANY SNOW...IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH. SUNDAY
COULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER WHEN
HIGHS MIGHT ONLY REACH THE MID 20S...OVER 40 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
THEN WEDNESDAY IS A BIG QUESTION MARK WITH WIDELY DIVERGENT
FORECAST MODELS. THE NEXT CLIPPER ACCORDING TO A FEW MODELS MAY
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR...BUT OUR SUPERBLEND OF MODELS IS
NOT REALLY REFLECTING THIS POSSIBILITY YET. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE RECORD WARMTH IS OVER FOR AT LEAST AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE AND THEN WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY IN
RETURN FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER THIS AFTN THEN LIMITED CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED THRU 18Z FRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KGID 291136
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
536 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE CWA
CURRENTLY SITTING IN BETWEEN TWO WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES...BUT
WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...NEITHER ARE/WILL BE
BRINGING ANY PRECIP TO THE AREA. THOUGH A TOUCH QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED...A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AN AREA EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT HELPS TO
KEEP NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER IS HELPING KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH RANGE AT 3 AM FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...REALLY OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA. NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY LIE WITH WIND SPEEDS AND HOW QUICKLY
THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DISSIPATES/SHIFTS OUT OF THE CWA.
AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON THE
TIGHTER SIDE THIS MORNING...BEFORE RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.
EVEN WITH THE RELAXING GRADIENT...EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE
GUSTY SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. CURRENT 20 TO 30/GUST
40 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SUSTAINED TO BE IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE/GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY THIS
EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LINGERING AROUND INTO TONIGHT...THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SWITCHING MORE
TO THE SOUTH AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOOKING AT SKY
COVER...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS STRATUS
AFFECTING ESP THE E/NERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY
MIDDAY...SO UPPED SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THAT. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. OBVIOUSLY THIS STRATUS STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED COULD AFFECT HIGHS TODAY...BUT AT THIS POINT
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S. STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...JUST NOT AS MUCH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS UNFORTUNATELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
NOT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER...ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS/LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. THE MAIN STORYLINE IS THAT WE WILL TRANSITION FROM OUR
RECENT RECORD WARMTH...TO A PATTERN THAT IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL JANUARY. THE SFC
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL HELP TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS ELEVATING OUR DEW POINTS AND POSSIBLY SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF NEVER REALLY EJECT THIS CUT OFF LOW OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT RATHER SINK IT FURTHER SOUTH YET INTO MEXICO WHERE
IT ESSENTIALLY DIES OUT. CONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF THE FORCING WILL
BE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND HENCE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS FAR NORTH AS
NEBRASKA...BUT THIS LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO WORK WITH THE MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...THIS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY NOT REALLY
GET GOING AND TAP THE BEST MOISTURE UNTIL IT IS EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. CONSEQUENTLY...AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT OUR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE WE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS (50 TO 70 PERCENT)...ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT AND MOST OF ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY MELT ON CONTACT
GIVEN SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE
STILL A GOOD DISTANCE APART CALLING FOR ANYWHERE FROM NO SNOW TO 3
TO 4 INCHES. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM...BUT AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
WORDING WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER
SYSTEMS (MAINLY DRY)...WITH COLD FRONTS SENDING REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THE CLIPPERS WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED SO IF WE SEE ANY SNOW...IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH. SUNDAY
COULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER WHEN
HIGHS MIGHT ONLY REACH THE MID 20S...OVER 40 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
THEN WEDNESDAY IS A BIG QUESTION MARK WITH WIDELY DIVERGENT
FORECAST MODELS. THE NEXT CLIPPER ACCORDING TO A FEW MODELS MAY
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR...BUT OUR SUPERBLEND OF MODELS IS
NOT REALLY REFLECTING THIS POSSIBILITY YET. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE RECORD WARMTH IS OVER FOR AT LEAST AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIE WITH WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINAL AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE
LIGHT/VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT SPEEDS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE
15 TO 25 MPH/GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH RANGE AROUND MIDDAY. THE AREA OF
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS MAKING THE SKY FORECAST TRICKY...AS PATCHES
OF CLEAR SKIES ARE MOVING THROUGH...AND WHAT CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE
ARE VARYING WITHING A FEW HUNDRED FEET OF 3000FT/MVFR CRITERIA.
TRIED TO ADDRESS THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS PREVAILING
EVENTUALLY AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 291136
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
536 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE CWA
CURRENTLY SITTING IN BETWEEN TWO WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES...BUT
WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...NEITHER ARE/WILL BE
BRINGING ANY PRECIP TO THE AREA. THOUGH A TOUCH QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED...A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AN AREA EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT HELPS TO
KEEP NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER IS HELPING KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH RANGE AT 3 AM FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...REALLY OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA. NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY LIE WITH WIND SPEEDS AND HOW QUICKLY
THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DISSIPATES/SHIFTS OUT OF THE CWA.
AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON THE
TIGHTER SIDE THIS MORNING...BEFORE RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.
EVEN WITH THE RELAXING GRADIENT...EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE
GUSTY SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. CURRENT 20 TO 30/GUST
40 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SUSTAINED TO BE IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE/GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY THIS
EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LINGERING AROUND INTO TONIGHT...THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SWITCHING MORE
TO THE SOUTH AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOOKING AT SKY
COVER...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS STRATUS
AFFECTING ESP THE E/NERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY
MIDDAY...SO UPPED SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THAT. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. OBVIOUSLY THIS STRATUS STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED COULD AFFECT HIGHS TODAY...BUT AT THIS POINT
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S. STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...JUST NOT AS MUCH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS UNFORTUNATELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
NOT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER...ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS/LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. THE MAIN STORYLINE IS THAT WE WILL TRANSITION FROM OUR
RECENT RECORD WARMTH...TO A PATTERN THAT IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL JANUARY. THE SFC
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL HELP TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS ELEVATING OUR DEW POINTS AND POSSIBLY SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF NEVER REALLY EJECT THIS CUT OFF LOW OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT RATHER SINK IT FURTHER SOUTH YET INTO MEXICO WHERE
IT ESSENTIALLY DIES OUT. CONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF THE FORCING WILL
BE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND HENCE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS FAR NORTH AS
NEBRASKA...BUT THIS LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO WORK WITH THE MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...THIS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY NOT REALLY
GET GOING AND TAP THE BEST MOISTURE UNTIL IT IS EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. CONSEQUENTLY...AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT OUR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE WE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS (50 TO 70 PERCENT)...ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT AND MOST OF ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY MELT ON CONTACT
GIVEN SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE
STILL A GOOD DISTANCE APART CALLING FOR ANYWHERE FROM NO SNOW TO 3
TO 4 INCHES. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM...BUT AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
WORDING WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER
SYSTEMS (MAINLY DRY)...WITH COLD FRONTS SENDING REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THE CLIPPERS WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED SO IF WE SEE ANY SNOW...IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH. SUNDAY
COULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER WHEN
HIGHS MIGHT ONLY REACH THE MID 20S...OVER 40 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
THEN WEDNESDAY IS A BIG QUESTION MARK WITH WIDELY DIVERGENT
FORECAST MODELS. THE NEXT CLIPPER ACCORDING TO A FEW MODELS MAY
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR...BUT OUR SUPERBLEND OF MODELS IS
NOT REALLY REFLECTING THIS POSSIBILITY YET. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE RECORD WARMTH IS OVER FOR AT LEAST AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIE WITH WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINAL AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE
LIGHT/VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT SPEEDS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE
15 TO 25 MPH/GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH RANGE AROUND MIDDAY. THE AREA OF
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS MAKING THE SKY FORECAST TRICKY...AS PATCHES
OF CLEAR SKIES ARE MOVING THROUGH...AND WHAT CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE
ARE VARYING WITHING A FEW HUNDRED FEET OF 3000FT/MVFR CRITERIA.
TRIED TO ADDRESS THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS PREVAILING
EVENTUALLY AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KLBF 291129 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT TO VFR CIGS BEFORE
COMPLETELY ERODING AROUND 18Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 291129 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT TO VFR CIGS BEFORE
COMPLETELY ERODING AROUND 18Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 291129 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT TO VFR CIGS BEFORE
COMPLETELY ERODING AROUND 18Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 291129 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT TO VFR CIGS BEFORE
COMPLETELY ERODING AROUND 18Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KOAX 291115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
515 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALTHOUGH LATEST TREND
APPEARS TO BE A DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 12Z. WILL
ADD REMAINING SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION AT
7 AM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST ON FRIDAY.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY
FOR THE MOST PART. DRIER AIR COMING IN WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR
LOOKS TO LIMIT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH A SHARP CUTOFF
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. PRECIP LIKELY
TO START OFF AS LIQUID ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH UPPER BOUND NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER
OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COLDEST AIR HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SOME
MODERATION RETURNS AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. MORE COLD AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE CLIPPER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY
18-20Z. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 22 TO 32 KNOTS EARLY...WITH
GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 20-23Z...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
00-02Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015-030>034-
     042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
515 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALTHOUGH LATEST TREND
APPEARS TO BE A DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 12Z. WILL
ADD REMAINING SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION AT
7 AM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST ON FRIDAY.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY
FOR THE MOST PART. DRIER AIR COMING IN WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR
LOOKS TO LIMIT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH A SHARP CUTOFF
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. PRECIP LIKELY
TO START OFF AS LIQUID ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH UPPER BOUND NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER
OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COLDEST AIR HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SOME
MODERATION RETURNS AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. MORE COLD AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE CLIPPER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY
18-20Z. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 22 TO 32 KNOTS EARLY...WITH
GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 20-23Z...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
00-02Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015-030>034-
     042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
515 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALTHOUGH LATEST TREND
APPEARS TO BE A DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 12Z. WILL
ADD REMAINING SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION AT
7 AM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST ON FRIDAY.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY
FOR THE MOST PART. DRIER AIR COMING IN WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR
LOOKS TO LIMIT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH A SHARP CUTOFF
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. PRECIP LIKELY
TO START OFF AS LIQUID ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH UPPER BOUND NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER
OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COLDEST AIR HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SOME
MODERATION RETURNS AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. MORE COLD AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE CLIPPER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY
18-20Z. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 22 TO 32 KNOTS EARLY...WITH
GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 20-23Z...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
00-02Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015-030>034-
     042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
515 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALTHOUGH LATEST TREND
APPEARS TO BE A DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 12Z. WILL
ADD REMAINING SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION AT
7 AM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST ON FRIDAY.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY
FOR THE MOST PART. DRIER AIR COMING IN WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR
LOOKS TO LIMIT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH A SHARP CUTOFF
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. PRECIP LIKELY
TO START OFF AS LIQUID ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH UPPER BOUND NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER
OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COLDEST AIR HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SOME
MODERATION RETURNS AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. MORE COLD AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE CLIPPER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY
18-20Z. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 22 TO 32 KNOTS EARLY...WITH
GUSTS DIMINISHING BY 20-23Z...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
00-02Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015-030>034-
     042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 291010
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE CWA
CURRENTLY SITTING IN BETWEEN TWO WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES...BUT
WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...NEITHER ARE/WILL BE
BRINGING ANY PRECIP TO THE AREA. THOUGH A TOUCH QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED...A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AN AREA EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT HELPS TO
KEEP NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER IS HELPING KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH RANGE AT 3 AM FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...REALLY OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA. NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY LIE WITH WIND SPEEDS AND HOW QUICKLY
THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DISSIPATES/SHIFTS OUT OF THE CWA.
AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON THE
TIGHTER SIDE THIS MORNING...BEFORE RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.
EVEN WITH THE RELAXING GRADIENT...EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE
GUSTY SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. CURRENT 20 TO 30/GUST
40 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SUSTAINED TO BE IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE/GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY THIS
EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LINGERING AROUND INTO TONIGHT...THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SWITCHING MORE
TO THE SOUTH AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOOKING AT SKY
COVER...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS STRATUS
AFFECTING ESP THE E/NERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY
MIDDAY...SO UPPED SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THAT. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. OBVIOUSLY THIS STRATUS STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED COULD AFFECT HIGHS TODAY...BUT AT THIS POINT
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S. STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...JUST NOT AS MUCH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS UNFORTUNATELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
NOT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER...ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS/LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. THE MAIN STORYLINE IS THAT WE WILL TRANSITION FROM OUR
RECENT RECORD WARMTH...TO A PATTERN THAT IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL JANUARY. THE SFC
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL HELP TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS ELEVATING OUR DEW POINTS AND POSSIBLY SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF NEVER REALLY EJECT THIS CUT OFF LOW OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT RATHER SINK IT FURTHER SOUTH YET INTO MEXICO WHERE
IT ESSENTIALLY DIES OUT. CONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF THE FORCING WILL
BE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND HENCE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS FAR NORTH AS
NEBRASKA...BUT THIS LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO WORK WITH THE MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...THIS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY NOT REALLY
GET GOING AND TAP THE BEST MOISTURE UNTIL IT IS EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. CONSEQUENTLY...AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT OUR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE WE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS (50 TO 70 PERCENT)...ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT AND MOST OF ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY MELT ON CONTACT
GIVEN SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE
STILL A GOOD DISTANCE APART CALLING FOR ANYWHERE FROM NO SNOW TO 3
TO 4 INCHES. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM...BUT AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
WORDING WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER
SYSTEMS (MAINLY DRY)...WITH COLD FRONTS SENDING REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THE CLIPPERS WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED SO IF WE SEE ANY SNOW...IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH. SUNDAY
COULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER WHEN
HIGHS MIGHT ONLY REACH THE MID 20S...OVER 40 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
THEN WEDNESDAY IS A BIG QUESTION MARK WITH WIDELY DIVERGENT
FORECAST MODELS. THE NEXT CLIPPER ACCORDING TO A FEW MODELS MAY
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR...BUT OUR SUPERBLEND OF MODELS IS
NOT REALLY REFLECTING THIS POSSIBILITY YET. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE RECORD WARMTH IS OVER FOR AT LEAST AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VAST SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH MVFR
CEILINGS ALL NIGHT AND ALL MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE WE
SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK UP AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 291010
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE CWA
CURRENTLY SITTING IN BETWEEN TWO WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES...BUT
WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...NEITHER ARE/WILL BE
BRINGING ANY PRECIP TO THE AREA. THOUGH A TOUCH QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED...A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AN AREA EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT HELPS TO
KEEP NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER IS HELPING KEEP TEMPS UP...WHICH RANGE AT 3 AM FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LOOKING TO THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF
TODAY/TONIGHT...REALLY OVERALL THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA. NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY LIE WITH WIND SPEEDS AND HOW QUICKLY
THIS AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DISSIPATES/SHIFTS OUT OF THE CWA.
AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON THE
TIGHTER SIDE THIS MORNING...BEFORE RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.
EVEN WITH THE RELAXING GRADIENT...EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE
GUSTY SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. CURRENT 20 TO 30/GUST
40 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SUSTAINED TO BE IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE/GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY THIS
EVENING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LINGERING AROUND INTO TONIGHT...THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SWITCHING MORE
TO THE SOUTH AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE FRIDAY. LOOKING AT SKY
COVER...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS STRATUS
AFFECTING ESP THE E/NERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY
MIDDAY...SO UPPED SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THAT. ONCE IT DOES
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. OBVIOUSLY THIS STRATUS STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED COULD AFFECT HIGHS TODAY...BUT AT THIS POINT
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S. STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...JUST NOT AS MUCH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS UNFORTUNATELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
NOT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER...ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS/LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. THE MAIN STORYLINE IS THAT WE WILL TRANSITION FROM OUR
RECENT RECORD WARMTH...TO A PATTERN THAT IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL JANUARY. THE SFC
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL HELP TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS ELEVATING OUR DEW POINTS AND POSSIBLY SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF NEVER REALLY EJECT THIS CUT OFF LOW OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT RATHER SINK IT FURTHER SOUTH YET INTO MEXICO WHERE
IT ESSENTIALLY DIES OUT. CONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF THE FORCING WILL
BE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND HENCE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS FAR NORTH AS
NEBRASKA...BUT THIS LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO WORK WITH THE MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...THIS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY NOT REALLY
GET GOING AND TAP THE BEST MOISTURE UNTIL IT IS EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. CONSEQUENTLY...AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT OUR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE WE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS (50 TO 70 PERCENT)...ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY
BE LIGHT AND MOST OF ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY MELT ON CONTACT
GIVEN SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE
STILL A GOOD DISTANCE APART CALLING FOR ANYWHERE FROM NO SNOW TO 3
TO 4 INCHES. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM...BUT AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
WORDING WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE A SERIES OF CLIPPER
SYSTEMS (MAINLY DRY)...WITH COLD FRONTS SENDING REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THE CLIPPERS WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED SO IF WE SEE ANY SNOW...IT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH. SUNDAY
COULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FIRST CLIPPER WHEN
HIGHS MIGHT ONLY REACH THE MID 20S...OVER 40 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
THEN WEDNESDAY IS A BIG QUESTION MARK WITH WIDELY DIVERGENT
FORECAST MODELS. THE NEXT CLIPPER ACCORDING TO A FEW MODELS MAY
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR...BUT OUR SUPERBLEND OF MODELS IS
NOT REALLY REFLECTING THIS POSSIBILITY YET. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE RECORD WARMTH IS OVER FOR AT LEAST AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VAST SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH MVFR
CEILINGS ALL NIGHT AND ALL MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE WE
SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK UP AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KLBF 291000
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST PRIOR TO 12Z...THEN DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 291000
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST PRIOR TO 12Z...THEN DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 291000
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST PRIOR TO 12Z...THEN DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 291000
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST PRIOR TO 12Z...THEN DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290916
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD LAYER HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALTHOUGH LATEST TREND
APPEARS TO BE A DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 12Z. WILL
ADD REMAINING SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION AT
7 AM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING EAST ON FRIDAY.

NEXT FORECAST CONCERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY
FOR THE MOST PART. DRIER AIR COMING IN WITH NEXT BATCH OF COLD AIR
LOOKS TO LIMIT NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH A SHARP CUTOFF
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. PRECIP LIKELY
TO START OFF AS LIQUID ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BORDER AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH UPPER BOUND NEAR SOUTHERN BORDER
OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COLDEST AIR HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SOME
MODERATION RETURNS AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. MORE COLD AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE CLIPPER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SHOULD LAST INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30KTS WITH
GUSTS 30 TO 40KTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
THURSDAY AS THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE EAST...GENERALLY
DROPPING TO UNDER 15KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND UNDER 10KTS
THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015-030>034-
     042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KGID 290621
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1221 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT.  THE WEATHER
PATTERN WAS UNDERGOING CHANGES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RECORD JANUARY WARMTH OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.  ALREADY TODAY...GRAND ISLAND HAS SET A NEW RECORD
HIGH TEMP OF 67 DEGREES...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 63
DEGREES. AND TEMPS CAN STILL EDGE UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HASTINGS HAS TIED THEIR RECORD OF 69 DEGREES.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DROPPED TO THE LOW
20TH PERCENTILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO THRU THE AFTN.

TEMPS THIS AFTN ARE STARTING TO LEVEL OFF...AND MORE NOTICEABLY
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 03Z
BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THREE HOURS PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 6 MB BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH...WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER
BETWEEN 40 AND 45KTS.  WIND CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE LOOKING VERY
SIMILAR TO THE GUSTY WINDS FROM LAST SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED.  THE STEADY/GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR LOWS.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
RELAXES AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IN THE
POST FRONTAL COOLER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TO SUMMARIZE THESE 6-DAYS IN THE BEST WAY POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WE
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL A RETURN TO MORE-WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS...BY
THAT SAME TOKEN WE ARE NOT FORESEEING ANY KIND OF PROLONGED
STRETCH OF BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS EITHER. IN FACT...ONLY ONE OF
THESE 6 DAYS (SUNDAY) IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FEATURE HIGHS WELL
DOWN IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE...WHILE MOST OTHER DAYS ARE PREDOMINANTLY
30S/40S. ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF MODIFICATION BEING SO
FAR OUT IN TIME...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT HIGH TEMPS FOR BOTH
MONDAY-TUESDAY WERE GENERALLY RAISED 4-10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL WISE...CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. WHILE OUR PREVIOUS NIGHT
SHIFT AND THEIR CORRESPONDING 00Z MODELS NOTED INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLY SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE LATEST 12Z/18Z RUNS TODAY HAVE BACKED
OFF CONSIDERABLY ESPECIALLY WITHIN NEBRASKA ZONES...WHILE FOCUSING
MOST RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 12-24 HOURS TOO EARLY FOR US TO "OFFICIALLY
ADVERTISE" A SNOW FORECAST WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...VERY PRELIMINARY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT KS ZONES MAY BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH MOST OF NEBRASKA LOOKING AT
ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS POTENTIAL. AGAIN...PLEASE
REALIZE THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...AND DON/T BE
SURPRISED IF THE NEXT SUITE OF 00Z MODELS AGAIN TREND SOMEWHAT
BACK UPWARD WITH AMOUNTS/NORTHWARD IN TRACK A BIT. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WE CAN SAY THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A "MAJOR" SNOW
EVENT THIS WEEKEND.

CONTINUING WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM (THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD)...FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MUCH OF THE TIME
GIVEN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES/SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH
COULD ALSO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT...BUT DID GO WITH "ALL
SNOW" POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY 100 PERCENT COMFORTABLE WITH THE LATEST DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND PULLING OUT ALL SNOW MENTION FOR SUNDAY
DAYTIME...WENT AHEAD WITH IT FOR NOW...THUS FOCUSING ALL POPS
BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT IS
TOO SOON TO INTRODUCE ANY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TOO
AS IT DRAWS NEARER.

OTHER THAN THE FRIDAY EVENING-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...LEFT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD VOID OF ANY PRECIP POSSIBILITIES
WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. COULD THERE BE OTHER PERIODS NEXT
WEEK THAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED SLIGHT POPS? MAYBE...BUT ITS JUST
TOO SOON TO ADVERTISE ANY SUCH CHANCES YET WITH SUCH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

TURNING TO LIMITED FORECAST DETAILS NOW IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY/UNEVENTFUL WEATHER
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD START OUT QUITE CLEAR...BUT EVENTUALLY
REALIZE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSITION
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...RESULTING IN LIGHT
BREEZES THAT START OUT NORTHERLY BUT THEN TRANSITION TO EASTERLY-
SOUTHERLY. NUDGED DOWN LOW TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...AIMING MOST PLACES INTO THE 17-20 RANGE.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE CWA REMAINS IN
BETWEEN A SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING CANADA/THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. DURING THE DAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS TRY TO
BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE FAR SOUTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY BEEFED UP SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 5
MPH DURING THE DAY...AS GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THESE BREEZES SHOULD ENHANCE MIXING AND
RAISED HIGHS ABOUT 3 DEGREES ALL AREAS...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA
IN THE 43-48 RANGE. FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-
END 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND IF THE
LATEST MODELS ARE ONTO ANYTHING IT MAY MAINLY BE KS ZONES ONLY.
LEFT PRECIP TYPE AS ALL-RAIN PRE-MIDNIGHT...WHILE CALLING IT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS
REALLY LOW IN THE DETAILS HERE REGARDING PRECIP/SNOW POTENTIAL.
LEFT THE HIGHEST 50-70 POPS IN KS ZONES...WHILE KNOCKING DOWN POPS
FOR THE NEB CWA ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT
GETTING CARRIED AWAY YET IN CASE THINGS TREND UPWARD AGAIN. ALL IN
ALL THOUGH...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP SEEMS TO BE TRENDING SOUTH
OF OUR CWA...WITH MAYBE A SEPARATE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SKIRTING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD-DIVING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY
UPPER 30S-LOW 40S ALL AREAS.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES OPTED TO GO WITH THE DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL LONG TERM BLEND
AND KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEADY
NORTH BREEZES AROUND 20 MPH...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY...BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL IN
NORTHERN ZONES AS SOME PRECIP POSSIBLY TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHS WERE RAISED 6-7 DEGREES
MOST AREAS...NOW PUTTING MOST PLACES INTO THE 28-38 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIVER OF SLIGHT POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST ZONES A
ANOTHER NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVE MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS RAISED AN AVERAGE
OF 4-9 DEGREES...WITH MOST AREAS 35-45.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...DRY FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW ALTHOUGH
ESPECIALLY THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS SOME LIMITED PRECIP POTENTIAL.
HIGH TEMPS VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED 34-43 MOST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VAST SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH MVFR
CEILINGS ALL NIGHT AND ALL MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE WE
SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK UP AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 290621
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1221 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT.  THE WEATHER
PATTERN WAS UNDERGOING CHANGES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RECORD JANUARY WARMTH OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.  ALREADY TODAY...GRAND ISLAND HAS SET A NEW RECORD
HIGH TEMP OF 67 DEGREES...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 63
DEGREES. AND TEMPS CAN STILL EDGE UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HASTINGS HAS TIED THEIR RECORD OF 69 DEGREES.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DROPPED TO THE LOW
20TH PERCENTILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO THRU THE AFTN.

TEMPS THIS AFTN ARE STARTING TO LEVEL OFF...AND MORE NOTICEABLY
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 03Z
BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THREE HOURS PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 6 MB BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH...WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER
BETWEEN 40 AND 45KTS.  WIND CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE LOOKING VERY
SIMILAR TO THE GUSTY WINDS FROM LAST SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED.  THE STEADY/GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR LOWS.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
RELAXES AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IN THE
POST FRONTAL COOLER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TO SUMMARIZE THESE 6-DAYS IN THE BEST WAY POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WE
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL A RETURN TO MORE-WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS...BY
THAT SAME TOKEN WE ARE NOT FORESEEING ANY KIND OF PROLONGED
STRETCH OF BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS EITHER. IN FACT...ONLY ONE OF
THESE 6 DAYS (SUNDAY) IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FEATURE HIGHS WELL
DOWN IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE...WHILE MOST OTHER DAYS ARE PREDOMINANTLY
30S/40S. ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF MODIFICATION BEING SO
FAR OUT IN TIME...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT HIGH TEMPS FOR BOTH
MONDAY-TUESDAY WERE GENERALLY RAISED 4-10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL WISE...CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. WHILE OUR PREVIOUS NIGHT
SHIFT AND THEIR CORRESPONDING 00Z MODELS NOTED INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLY SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE LATEST 12Z/18Z RUNS TODAY HAVE BACKED
OFF CONSIDERABLY ESPECIALLY WITHIN NEBRASKA ZONES...WHILE FOCUSING
MOST RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 12-24 HOURS TOO EARLY FOR US TO "OFFICIALLY
ADVERTISE" A SNOW FORECAST WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...VERY PRELIMINARY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT KS ZONES MAY BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH MOST OF NEBRASKA LOOKING AT
ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS POTENTIAL. AGAIN...PLEASE
REALIZE THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...AND DON/T BE
SURPRISED IF THE NEXT SUITE OF 00Z MODELS AGAIN TREND SOMEWHAT
BACK UPWARD WITH AMOUNTS/NORTHWARD IN TRACK A BIT. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WE CAN SAY THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A "MAJOR" SNOW
EVENT THIS WEEKEND.

CONTINUING WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM (THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD)...FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MUCH OF THE TIME
GIVEN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES/SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH
COULD ALSO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT...BUT DID GO WITH "ALL
SNOW" POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY 100 PERCENT COMFORTABLE WITH THE LATEST DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND PULLING OUT ALL SNOW MENTION FOR SUNDAY
DAYTIME...WENT AHEAD WITH IT FOR NOW...THUS FOCUSING ALL POPS
BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT IS
TOO SOON TO INTRODUCE ANY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TOO
AS IT DRAWS NEARER.

OTHER THAN THE FRIDAY EVENING-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...LEFT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD VOID OF ANY PRECIP POSSIBILITIES
WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. COULD THERE BE OTHER PERIODS NEXT
WEEK THAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED SLIGHT POPS? MAYBE...BUT ITS JUST
TOO SOON TO ADVERTISE ANY SUCH CHANCES YET WITH SUCH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

TURNING TO LIMITED FORECAST DETAILS NOW IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY/UNEVENTFUL WEATHER
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD START OUT QUITE CLEAR...BUT EVENTUALLY
REALIZE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSITION
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...RESULTING IN LIGHT
BREEZES THAT START OUT NORTHERLY BUT THEN TRANSITION TO EASTERLY-
SOUTHERLY. NUDGED DOWN LOW TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...AIMING MOST PLACES INTO THE 17-20 RANGE.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE CWA REMAINS IN
BETWEEN A SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING CANADA/THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. DURING THE DAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS TRY TO
BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE FAR SOUTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY BEEFED UP SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 5
MPH DURING THE DAY...AS GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THESE BREEZES SHOULD ENHANCE MIXING AND
RAISED HIGHS ABOUT 3 DEGREES ALL AREAS...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA
IN THE 43-48 RANGE. FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-
END 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND IF THE
LATEST MODELS ARE ONTO ANYTHING IT MAY MAINLY BE KS ZONES ONLY.
LEFT PRECIP TYPE AS ALL-RAIN PRE-MIDNIGHT...WHILE CALLING IT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS
REALLY LOW IN THE DETAILS HERE REGARDING PRECIP/SNOW POTENTIAL.
LEFT THE HIGHEST 50-70 POPS IN KS ZONES...WHILE KNOCKING DOWN POPS
FOR THE NEB CWA ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT
GETTING CARRIED AWAY YET IN CASE THINGS TREND UPWARD AGAIN. ALL IN
ALL THOUGH...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP SEEMS TO BE TRENDING SOUTH
OF OUR CWA...WITH MAYBE A SEPARATE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SKIRTING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD-DIVING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY
UPPER 30S-LOW 40S ALL AREAS.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES OPTED TO GO WITH THE DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL LONG TERM BLEND
AND KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEADY
NORTH BREEZES AROUND 20 MPH...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY...BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL IN
NORTHERN ZONES AS SOME PRECIP POSSIBLY TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHS WERE RAISED 6-7 DEGREES
MOST AREAS...NOW PUTTING MOST PLACES INTO THE 28-38 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIVER OF SLIGHT POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST ZONES A
ANOTHER NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVE MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS RAISED AN AVERAGE
OF 4-9 DEGREES...WITH MOST AREAS 35-45.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...DRY FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW ALTHOUGH
ESPECIALLY THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS SOME LIMITED PRECIP POTENTIAL.
HIGH TEMPS VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED 34-43 MOST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VAST SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH MVFR
CEILINGS ALL NIGHT AND ALL MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE WE
SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK UP AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 290621
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1221 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT.  THE WEATHER
PATTERN WAS UNDERGOING CHANGES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RECORD JANUARY WARMTH OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.  ALREADY TODAY...GRAND ISLAND HAS SET A NEW RECORD
HIGH TEMP OF 67 DEGREES...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 63
DEGREES. AND TEMPS CAN STILL EDGE UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HASTINGS HAS TIED THEIR RECORD OF 69 DEGREES.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DROPPED TO THE LOW
20TH PERCENTILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO THRU THE AFTN.

TEMPS THIS AFTN ARE STARTING TO LEVEL OFF...AND MORE NOTICEABLY
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 03Z
BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THREE HOURS PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 6 MB BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH...WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER
BETWEEN 40 AND 45KTS.  WIND CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE LOOKING VERY
SIMILAR TO THE GUSTY WINDS FROM LAST SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED.  THE STEADY/GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR LOWS.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
RELAXES AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IN THE
POST FRONTAL COOLER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TO SUMMARIZE THESE 6-DAYS IN THE BEST WAY POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WE
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL A RETURN TO MORE-WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS...BY
THAT SAME TOKEN WE ARE NOT FORESEEING ANY KIND OF PROLONGED
STRETCH OF BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS EITHER. IN FACT...ONLY ONE OF
THESE 6 DAYS (SUNDAY) IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FEATURE HIGHS WELL
DOWN IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE...WHILE MOST OTHER DAYS ARE PREDOMINANTLY
30S/40S. ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF MODIFICATION BEING SO
FAR OUT IN TIME...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT HIGH TEMPS FOR BOTH
MONDAY-TUESDAY WERE GENERALLY RAISED 4-10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL WISE...CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. WHILE OUR PREVIOUS NIGHT
SHIFT AND THEIR CORRESPONDING 00Z MODELS NOTED INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLY SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE LATEST 12Z/18Z RUNS TODAY HAVE BACKED
OFF CONSIDERABLY ESPECIALLY WITHIN NEBRASKA ZONES...WHILE FOCUSING
MOST RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 12-24 HOURS TOO EARLY FOR US TO "OFFICIALLY
ADVERTISE" A SNOW FORECAST WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...VERY PRELIMINARY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT KS ZONES MAY BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH MOST OF NEBRASKA LOOKING AT
ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS POTENTIAL. AGAIN...PLEASE
REALIZE THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...AND DON/T BE
SURPRISED IF THE NEXT SUITE OF 00Z MODELS AGAIN TREND SOMEWHAT
BACK UPWARD WITH AMOUNTS/NORTHWARD IN TRACK A BIT. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WE CAN SAY THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A "MAJOR" SNOW
EVENT THIS WEEKEND.

CONTINUING WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM (THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD)...FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MUCH OF THE TIME
GIVEN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES/SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH
COULD ALSO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT...BUT DID GO WITH "ALL
SNOW" POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY 100 PERCENT COMFORTABLE WITH THE LATEST DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND PULLING OUT ALL SNOW MENTION FOR SUNDAY
DAYTIME...WENT AHEAD WITH IT FOR NOW...THUS FOCUSING ALL POPS
BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT IS
TOO SOON TO INTRODUCE ANY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TOO
AS IT DRAWS NEARER.

OTHER THAN THE FRIDAY EVENING-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...LEFT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD VOID OF ANY PRECIP POSSIBILITIES
WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. COULD THERE BE OTHER PERIODS NEXT
WEEK THAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED SLIGHT POPS? MAYBE...BUT ITS JUST
TOO SOON TO ADVERTISE ANY SUCH CHANCES YET WITH SUCH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

TURNING TO LIMITED FORECAST DETAILS NOW IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY/UNEVENTFUL WEATHER
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD START OUT QUITE CLEAR...BUT EVENTUALLY
REALIZE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSITION
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...RESULTING IN LIGHT
BREEZES THAT START OUT NORTHERLY BUT THEN TRANSITION TO EASTERLY-
SOUTHERLY. NUDGED DOWN LOW TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...AIMING MOST PLACES INTO THE 17-20 RANGE.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE CWA REMAINS IN
BETWEEN A SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING CANADA/THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. DURING THE DAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS TRY TO
BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE FAR SOUTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY BEEFED UP SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 5
MPH DURING THE DAY...AS GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THESE BREEZES SHOULD ENHANCE MIXING AND
RAISED HIGHS ABOUT 3 DEGREES ALL AREAS...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA
IN THE 43-48 RANGE. FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-
END 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND IF THE
LATEST MODELS ARE ONTO ANYTHING IT MAY MAINLY BE KS ZONES ONLY.
LEFT PRECIP TYPE AS ALL-RAIN PRE-MIDNIGHT...WHILE CALLING IT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS
REALLY LOW IN THE DETAILS HERE REGARDING PRECIP/SNOW POTENTIAL.
LEFT THE HIGHEST 50-70 POPS IN KS ZONES...WHILE KNOCKING DOWN POPS
FOR THE NEB CWA ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT
GETTING CARRIED AWAY YET IN CASE THINGS TREND UPWARD AGAIN. ALL IN
ALL THOUGH...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP SEEMS TO BE TRENDING SOUTH
OF OUR CWA...WITH MAYBE A SEPARATE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SKIRTING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD-DIVING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY
UPPER 30S-LOW 40S ALL AREAS.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES OPTED TO GO WITH THE DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL LONG TERM BLEND
AND KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEADY
NORTH BREEZES AROUND 20 MPH...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY...BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL IN
NORTHERN ZONES AS SOME PRECIP POSSIBLY TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHS WERE RAISED 6-7 DEGREES
MOST AREAS...NOW PUTTING MOST PLACES INTO THE 28-38 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIVER OF SLIGHT POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST ZONES A
ANOTHER NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVE MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS RAISED AN AVERAGE
OF 4-9 DEGREES...WITH MOST AREAS 35-45.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...DRY FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW ALTHOUGH
ESPECIALLY THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS SOME LIMITED PRECIP POTENTIAL.
HIGH TEMPS VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED 34-43 MOST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VAST SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH MVFR
CEILINGS ALL NIGHT AND ALL MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE WE
SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK UP AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 290621
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1221 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT.  THE WEATHER
PATTERN WAS UNDERGOING CHANGES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RECORD JANUARY WARMTH OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.  ALREADY TODAY...GRAND ISLAND HAS SET A NEW RECORD
HIGH TEMP OF 67 DEGREES...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 63
DEGREES. AND TEMPS CAN STILL EDGE UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HASTINGS HAS TIED THEIR RECORD OF 69 DEGREES.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DROPPED TO THE LOW
20TH PERCENTILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO THRU THE AFTN.

TEMPS THIS AFTN ARE STARTING TO LEVEL OFF...AND MORE NOTICEABLY
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 03Z
BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THREE HOURS PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 6 MB BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH...WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER
BETWEEN 40 AND 45KTS.  WIND CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE LOOKING VERY
SIMILAR TO THE GUSTY WINDS FROM LAST SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED.  THE STEADY/GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR LOWS.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
RELAXES AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IN THE
POST FRONTAL COOLER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TO SUMMARIZE THESE 6-DAYS IN THE BEST WAY POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WE
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL A RETURN TO MORE-WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS...BY
THAT SAME TOKEN WE ARE NOT FORESEEING ANY KIND OF PROLONGED
STRETCH OF BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS EITHER. IN FACT...ONLY ONE OF
THESE 6 DAYS (SUNDAY) IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FEATURE HIGHS WELL
DOWN IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE...WHILE MOST OTHER DAYS ARE PREDOMINANTLY
30S/40S. ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF MODIFICATION BEING SO
FAR OUT IN TIME...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT HIGH TEMPS FOR BOTH
MONDAY-TUESDAY WERE GENERALLY RAISED 4-10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL WISE...CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. WHILE OUR PREVIOUS NIGHT
SHIFT AND THEIR CORRESPONDING 00Z MODELS NOTED INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLY SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE LATEST 12Z/18Z RUNS TODAY HAVE BACKED
OFF CONSIDERABLY ESPECIALLY WITHIN NEBRASKA ZONES...WHILE FOCUSING
MOST RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 12-24 HOURS TOO EARLY FOR US TO "OFFICIALLY
ADVERTISE" A SNOW FORECAST WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...VERY PRELIMINARY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT KS ZONES MAY BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH MOST OF NEBRASKA LOOKING AT
ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS POTENTIAL. AGAIN...PLEASE
REALIZE THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...AND DON/T BE
SURPRISED IF THE NEXT SUITE OF 00Z MODELS AGAIN TREND SOMEWHAT
BACK UPWARD WITH AMOUNTS/NORTHWARD IN TRACK A BIT. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WE CAN SAY THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A "MAJOR" SNOW
EVENT THIS WEEKEND.

CONTINUING WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM (THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD)...FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MUCH OF THE TIME
GIVEN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES/SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH
COULD ALSO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT...BUT DID GO WITH "ALL
SNOW" POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY 100 PERCENT COMFORTABLE WITH THE LATEST DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND PULLING OUT ALL SNOW MENTION FOR SUNDAY
DAYTIME...WENT AHEAD WITH IT FOR NOW...THUS FOCUSING ALL POPS
BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT IS
TOO SOON TO INTRODUCE ANY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TOO
AS IT DRAWS NEARER.

OTHER THAN THE FRIDAY EVENING-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...LEFT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD VOID OF ANY PRECIP POSSIBILITIES
WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. COULD THERE BE OTHER PERIODS NEXT
WEEK THAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED SLIGHT POPS? MAYBE...BUT ITS JUST
TOO SOON TO ADVERTISE ANY SUCH CHANCES YET WITH SUCH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

TURNING TO LIMITED FORECAST DETAILS NOW IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY/UNEVENTFUL WEATHER
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD START OUT QUITE CLEAR...BUT EVENTUALLY
REALIZE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSITION
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...RESULTING IN LIGHT
BREEZES THAT START OUT NORTHERLY BUT THEN TRANSITION TO EASTERLY-
SOUTHERLY. NUDGED DOWN LOW TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...AIMING MOST PLACES INTO THE 17-20 RANGE.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE CWA REMAINS IN
BETWEEN A SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING CANADA/THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. DURING THE DAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS TRY TO
BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE FAR SOUTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY BEEFED UP SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 5
MPH DURING THE DAY...AS GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THESE BREEZES SHOULD ENHANCE MIXING AND
RAISED HIGHS ABOUT 3 DEGREES ALL AREAS...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA
IN THE 43-48 RANGE. FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-
END 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND IF THE
LATEST MODELS ARE ONTO ANYTHING IT MAY MAINLY BE KS ZONES ONLY.
LEFT PRECIP TYPE AS ALL-RAIN PRE-MIDNIGHT...WHILE CALLING IT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS
REALLY LOW IN THE DETAILS HERE REGARDING PRECIP/SNOW POTENTIAL.
LEFT THE HIGHEST 50-70 POPS IN KS ZONES...WHILE KNOCKING DOWN POPS
FOR THE NEB CWA ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT
GETTING CARRIED AWAY YET IN CASE THINGS TREND UPWARD AGAIN. ALL IN
ALL THOUGH...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP SEEMS TO BE TRENDING SOUTH
OF OUR CWA...WITH MAYBE A SEPARATE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SKIRTING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD-DIVING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY
UPPER 30S-LOW 40S ALL AREAS.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES OPTED TO GO WITH THE DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL LONG TERM BLEND
AND KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEADY
NORTH BREEZES AROUND 20 MPH...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY...BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL IN
NORTHERN ZONES AS SOME PRECIP POSSIBLY TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHS WERE RAISED 6-7 DEGREES
MOST AREAS...NOW PUTTING MOST PLACES INTO THE 28-38 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIVER OF SLIGHT POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST ZONES A
ANOTHER NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVE MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS RAISED AN AVERAGE
OF 4-9 DEGREES...WITH MOST AREAS 35-45.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...DRY FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW ALTHOUGH
ESPECIALLY THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS SOME LIMITED PRECIP POTENTIAL.
HIGH TEMPS VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED 34-43 MOST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A VAST SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH MVFR
CEILINGS ALL NIGHT AND ALL MORNING. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE WE
SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK UP AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 290554
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1154 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT.  THE WEATHER
PATTERN WAS UNDERGOING CHANGES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RECORD JANUARY WARMTH OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.  ALREADY TODAY...GRAND ISLAND HAS SET A NEW RECORD
HIGH TEMP OF 67 DEGREES...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 63
DEGREES. AND TEMPS CAN STILL EDGE UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HASTINGS HAS TIED THEIR RECORD OF 69 DEGREES.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DROPPED TO THE LOW
20TH PERCENTILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO THRU THE AFTN.

TEMPS THIS AFTN ARE STARTING TO LEVEL OFF...AND MORE NOTICEABLY
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 03Z
BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THREE HOURS PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 6 MB BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH...WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER
BETWEEN 40 AND 45KTS.  WIND CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE LOOKING VERY
SIMILAR TO THE GUSTY WINDS FROM LAST SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED.  THE STEADY/GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR LOWS.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
RELAXES AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IN THE
POST FRONTAL COOLER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TO SUMMARIZE THESE 6-DAYS IN THE BEST WAY POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WE
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL A RETURN TO MORE-WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS...BY
THAT SAME TOKEN WE ARE NOT FORESEEING ANY KIND OF PROLONGED
STRETCH OF BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS EITHER. IN FACT...ONLY ONE OF
THESE 6 DAYS (SUNDAY) IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FEATURE HIGHS WELL
DOWN IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE...WHILE MOST OTHER DAYS ARE PREDOMINANTLY
30S/40S. ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF MODIFICATION BEING SO
FAR OUT IN TIME...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT HIGH TEMPS FOR BOTH
MONDAY-TUESDAY WERE GENERALLY RAISED 4-10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL WISE...CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. WHILE OUR PREVIOUS NIGHT
SHIFT AND THEIR CORRESPONDING 00Z MODELS NOTED INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLY SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE LATEST 12Z/18Z RUNS TODAY HAVE BACKED
OFF CONSIDERABLY ESPECIALLY WITHIN NEBRASKA ZONES...WHILE FOCUSING
MOST RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 12-24 HOURS TOO EARLY FOR US TO "OFFICIALLY
ADVERTISE" A SNOW FORECAST WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...VERY PRELIMINARY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT KS ZONES MAY BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH MOST OF NEBRASKA LOOKING AT
ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS POTENTIAL. AGAIN...PLEASE
REALIZE THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...AND DON/T BE
SURPRISED IF THE NEXT SUITE OF 00Z MODELS AGAIN TREND SOMEWHAT
BACK UPWARD WITH AMOUNTS/NORTHWARD IN TRACK A BIT. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WE CAN SAY THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A "MAJOR" SNOW
EVENT THIS WEEKEND.

CONTINUING WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM (THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD)...FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MUCH OF THE TIME
GIVEN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES/SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH
COULD ALSO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT...BUT DID GO WITH "ALL
SNOW" POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY 100 PERCENT COMFORTABLE WITH THE LATEST DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND PULLING OUT ALL SNOW MENTION FOR SUNDAY
DAYTIME...WENT AHEAD WITH IT FOR NOW...THUS FOCUSING ALL POPS
BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT IS
TOO SOON TO INTRODUCE ANY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TOO
AS IT DRAWS NEARER.

OTHER THAN THE FRIDAY EVENING-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...LEFT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD VOID OF ANY PRECIP POSSIBILITIES
WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. COULD THERE BE OTHER PERIODS NEXT
WEEK THAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED SLIGHT POPS? MAYBE...BUT ITS JUST
TOO SOON TO ADVERTISE ANY SUCH CHANCES YET WITH SUCH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

TURNING TO LIMITED FORECAST DETAILS NOW IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY/UNEVENTFUL WEATHER
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD START OUT QUITE CLEAR...BUT EVENTUALLY
REALIZE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSITION
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...RESULTING IN LIGHT
BREEZES THAT START OUT NORTHERLY BUT THEN TRANSITION TO EASTERLY-
SOUTHERLY. NUDGED DOWN LOW TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...AIMING MOST PLACES INTO THE 17-20 RANGE.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE CWA REMAINS IN
BETWEEN A SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING CANADA/THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. DURING THE DAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS TRY TO
BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE FAR SOUTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY BEEFED UP SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 5
MPH DURING THE DAY...AS GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THESE BREEZES SHOULD ENHANCE MIXING AND
RAISED HIGHS ABOUT 3 DEGREES ALL AREAS...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA
IN THE 43-48 RANGE. FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-
END 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND IF THE
LATEST MODELS ARE ONTO ANYTHING IT MAY MAINLY BE KS ZONES ONLY.
LEFT PRECIP TYPE AS ALL-RAIN PRE-MIDNIGHT...WHILE CALLING IT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS
REALLY LOW IN THE DETAILS HERE REGARDING PRECIP/SNOW POTENTIAL.
LEFT THE HIGHEST 50-70 POPS IN KS ZONES...WHILE KNOCKING DOWN POPS
FOR THE NEB CWA ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT
GETTING CARRIED AWAY YET IN CASE THINGS TREND UPWARD AGAIN. ALL IN
ALL THOUGH...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP SEEMS TO BE TRENDING SOUTH
OF OUR CWA...WITH MAYBE A SEPARATE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SKIRTING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD-DIVING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY
UPPER 30S-LOW 40S ALL AREAS.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES OPTED TO GO WITH THE DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL LONG TERM BLEND
AND KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEADY
NORTH BREEZES AROUND 20 MPH...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY...BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL IN
NORTHERN ZONES AS SOME PRECIP POSSIBLY TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHS WERE RAISED 6-7 DEGREES
MOST AREAS...NOW PUTTING MOST PLACES INTO THE 28-38 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIVER OF SLIGHT POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST ZONES A
ANOTHER NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVE MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS RAISED AN AVERAGE
OF 4-9 DEGREES...WITH MOST AREAS 35-45.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...DRY FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW ALTHOUGH
ESPECIALLY THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS SOME LIMITED PRECIP POTENTIAL.
HIGH TEMPS VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED 34-43 MOST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS GUSTING
AT TIMES OVER 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE TAF WAS TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE NORTH...MVFR CEILINGS ARE KNOCKING
ON THE DOOR. TIME HEIGHTS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THOSE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING...AND HAVE VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 290554
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1154 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT.  THE WEATHER
PATTERN WAS UNDERGOING CHANGES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RECORD JANUARY WARMTH OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.  ALREADY TODAY...GRAND ISLAND HAS SET A NEW RECORD
HIGH TEMP OF 67 DEGREES...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 63
DEGREES. AND TEMPS CAN STILL EDGE UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HASTINGS HAS TIED THEIR RECORD OF 69 DEGREES.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DROPPED TO THE LOW
20TH PERCENTILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO THRU THE AFTN.

TEMPS THIS AFTN ARE STARTING TO LEVEL OFF...AND MORE NOTICEABLY
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 03Z
BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THREE HOURS PRESSURE RISES
AVERAGING 6 MB BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH...WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER
BETWEEN 40 AND 45KTS.  WIND CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE LOOKING VERY
SIMILAR TO THE GUSTY WINDS FROM LAST SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WERE OBSERVED.  THE STEADY/GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR LOWS.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
RELAXES AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IN THE
POST FRONTAL COOLER AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TO SUMMARIZE THESE 6-DAYS IN THE BEST WAY POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WE
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL A RETURN TO MORE-WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS...BY
THAT SAME TOKEN WE ARE NOT FORESEEING ANY KIND OF PROLONGED
STRETCH OF BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS EITHER. IN FACT...ONLY ONE OF
THESE 6 DAYS (SUNDAY) IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FEATURE HIGHS WELL
DOWN IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE...WHILE MOST OTHER DAYS ARE PREDOMINANTLY
30S/40S. ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF MODIFICATION BEING SO
FAR OUT IN TIME...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT HIGH TEMPS FOR BOTH
MONDAY-TUESDAY WERE GENERALLY RAISED 4-10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL WISE...CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. WHILE OUR PREVIOUS NIGHT
SHIFT AND THEIR CORRESPONDING 00Z MODELS NOTED INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLY SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THE LATEST 12Z/18Z RUNS TODAY HAVE BACKED
OFF CONSIDERABLY ESPECIALLY WITHIN NEBRASKA ZONES...WHILE FOCUSING
MOST RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 12-24 HOURS TOO EARLY FOR US TO "OFFICIALLY
ADVERTISE" A SNOW FORECAST WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...VERY PRELIMINARY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT KS ZONES MAY BE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH MOST OF NEBRASKA LOOKING AT
ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS POTENTIAL. AGAIN...PLEASE
REALIZE THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...AND DON/T BE
SURPRISED IF THE NEXT SUITE OF 00Z MODELS AGAIN TREND SOMEWHAT
BACK UPWARD WITH AMOUNTS/NORTHWARD IN TRACK A BIT. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WE CAN SAY THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A "MAJOR" SNOW
EVENT THIS WEEKEND.

CONTINUING WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM (THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD)...FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MUCH OF THE TIME
GIVEN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES/SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH
COULD ALSO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHAT...BUT DID GO WITH "ALL
SNOW" POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. ALTHOUGH
NOT NECESSARILY 100 PERCENT COMFORTABLE WITH THE LATEST DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND PULLING OUT ALL SNOW MENTION FOR SUNDAY
DAYTIME...WENT AHEAD WITH IT FOR NOW...THUS FOCUSING ALL POPS
BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT IS
TOO SOON TO INTRODUCE ANY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TOO
AS IT DRAWS NEARER.

OTHER THAN THE FRIDAY EVENING-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...LEFT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD VOID OF ANY PRECIP POSSIBILITIES
WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. COULD THERE BE OTHER PERIODS NEXT
WEEK THAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED SLIGHT POPS? MAYBE...BUT ITS JUST
TOO SOON TO ADVERTISE ANY SUCH CHANCES YET WITH SUCH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

TURNING TO LIMITED FORECAST DETAILS NOW IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY/UNEVENTFUL WEATHER
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD START OUT QUITE CLEAR...BUT EVENTUALLY
REALIZE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSITION
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...RESULTING IN LIGHT
BREEZES THAT START OUT NORTHERLY BUT THEN TRANSITION TO EASTERLY-
SOUTHERLY. NUDGED DOWN LOW TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...AIMING MOST PLACES INTO THE 17-20 RANGE.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE CWA REMAINS IN
BETWEEN A SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING CANADA/THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. DURING THE DAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS TRY TO
BRING LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE FAR SOUTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY BEEFED UP SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 5
MPH DURING THE DAY...AS GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THESE BREEZES SHOULD ENHANCE MIXING AND
RAISED HIGHS ABOUT 3 DEGREES ALL AREAS...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA
IN THE 43-48 RANGE. FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW-
END 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND IF THE
LATEST MODELS ARE ONTO ANYTHING IT MAY MAINLY BE KS ZONES ONLY.
LEFT PRECIP TYPE AS ALL-RAIN PRE-MIDNIGHT...WHILE CALLING IT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS
REALLY LOW IN THE DETAILS HERE REGARDING PRECIP/SNOW POTENTIAL.
LEFT THE HIGHEST 50-70 POPS IN KS ZONES...WHILE KNOCKING DOWN POPS
FOR THE NEB CWA ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT
GETTING CARRIED AWAY YET IN CASE THINGS TREND UPWARD AGAIN. ALL IN
ALL THOUGH...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP SEEMS TO BE TRENDING SOUTH
OF OUR CWA...WITH MAYBE A SEPARATE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SKIRTING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD-DIVING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPS...GENERALLY
UPPER 30S-LOW 40S ALL AREAS.

SUNDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES OPTED TO GO WITH THE DEFAULT MULTI-MODEL LONG TERM BLEND
AND KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEADY
NORTH BREEZES AROUND 20 MPH...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY...BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL IN
NORTHERN ZONES AS SOME PRECIP POSSIBLY TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS...HIGHS WERE RAISED 6-7 DEGREES
MOST AREAS...NOW PUTTING MOST PLACES INTO THE 28-38 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...KEPT IT DRY ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SLIVER OF SLIGHT POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST ZONES A
ANOTHER NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVE MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS RAISED AN AVERAGE
OF 4-9 DEGREES...WITH MOST AREAS 35-45.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...DRY FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW ALTHOUGH
ESPECIALLY THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS SOME LIMITED PRECIP POTENTIAL.
HIGH TEMPS VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED 34-43 MOST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS GUSTING
AT TIMES OVER 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE TAF WAS TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL
OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE NORTH...MVFR CEILINGS ARE KNOCKING
ON THE DOOR. TIME HEIGHTS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THOSE
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING...AND HAVE VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KOAX 290546
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 12Z AT 500 MB WERE AS HIGH
AS 100 METERS OVER WYOMING. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT SATURATED...BUT THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO WATCH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SINCE PCPN WILL BE FALLING AS LIQUID AND IF IT DROPS
BELOW FREEZING IT MAY CAUSE SOME VERY LIGHT SPOTTY ICING. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
TRACKS ACROSS IOWA AND INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER (GFS
SHOWS 925 MB WINDS UP TO AROUND 40 OR 45 KNOTS OVERNIGHT) WILL BE
THE MAIN REASONS FOR THE STRONG WINDS. THESE MAY NOT BE CONSTANTLY
AT ADVISORY NUMBERS ALL NIGHT...BUT FEEL AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA STARTING MID EVENING
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THEN SPREADING THAT SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.

THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY.
THESE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG IN THE MORNING BUT DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. WENT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S NORTH...LOWER AND MID 40S SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL BOOST HIGHS A BIT FOR FRIDAY...TO
THE LOWER AND MID 40S BUT EVEN WARMER READINGS APPEAR POSSIBLE
IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. DECIDED NOT TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS
TIME.

THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAVE CHANGED IN
REGARDS TO POSSIBLE PCPN AMOUNTS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS
ENSEMBLE AND THE 15Z SREF STILL INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW. FOR OUR AREA...IN GENERAL...EXPECT THAT THE MAIN
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ADJUSTED (IF NEEDED) AS WE GET CLOSER. THE
MODELS MAY DEVIATE MORE FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS VARIANCE WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO THE COMPLEX FLOW
THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...WHICH IS NOT A HIGH
DENSITY DATA AREA FOR UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS IN MOST CASES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS MAY HAVE LARGER IMPACTS IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA.

PCPN CHANGES WILL BE DECREASING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OUR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AS WELL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS BY NOON SUNDAY...THEN THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO IOWA
AND MISSOURI BY MONDAY MORNING.

SYSTEM AMPLIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE BASED ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN FOR SUNDAY...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WAVE SHOWN IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ON SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL EVEN BRIEFLY SHOWS
A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER ON
SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE WILL WILL BE MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THEN SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW GOING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SHOULD LAST INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30KTS WITH
GUSTS 30 TO 40KTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
THURSDAY AS THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE EAST...GENERALLY
DROPPING TO UNDER 15KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND UNDER 10KTS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ015-030>034-042>045-
     050>053-065>068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016>018.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290546
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

THE CHANCE OF PCPN ON THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 12Z AT 500 MB WERE AS HIGH
AS 100 METERS OVER WYOMING. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT SATURATED...BUT THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO WATCH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SINCE PCPN WILL BE FALLING AS LIQUID AND IF IT DROPS
BELOW FREEZING IT MAY CAUSE SOME VERY LIGHT SPOTTY ICING. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
TRACKS ACROSS IOWA AND INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS BY DAYBREAK.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER (GFS
SHOWS 925 MB WINDS UP TO AROUND 40 OR 45 KNOTS OVERNIGHT) WILL BE
THE MAIN REASONS FOR THE STRONG WINDS. THESE MAY NOT BE CONSTANTLY
AT ADVISORY NUMBERS ALL NIGHT...BUT FEEL AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA STARTING MID EVENING
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THEN SPREADING THAT SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.

THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY.
THESE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG IN THE MORNING BUT DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA
BY THURSDAY EVENING. WENT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S NORTH...LOWER AND MID 40S SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL BOOST HIGHS A BIT FOR FRIDAY...TO
THE LOWER AND MID 40S BUT EVEN WARMER READINGS APPEAR POSSIBLE
IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. DECIDED NOT TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS
TIME.

THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAVE CHANGED IN
REGARDS TO POSSIBLE PCPN AMOUNTS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS
ENSEMBLE AND THE 15Z SREF STILL INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW. FOR OUR AREA...IN GENERAL...EXPECT THAT THE MAIN
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ADJUSTED (IF NEEDED) AS WE GET CLOSER. THE
MODELS MAY DEVIATE MORE FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS VARIANCE WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO THE COMPLEX FLOW
THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...WHICH IS NOT A HIGH
DENSITY DATA AREA FOR UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS IN MOST CASES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS MAY HAVE LARGER IMPACTS IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA.

PCPN CHANGES WILL BE DECREASING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OUR
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AS WELL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS BY NOON SUNDAY...THEN THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO IOWA
AND MISSOURI BY MONDAY MORNING.

SYSTEM AMPLIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE BASED ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN FOR SUNDAY...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WAVE SHOWN IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ON SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL EVEN BRIEFLY SHOWS
A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER ON
SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE WILL WILL BE MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THEN SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW GOING FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SHOULD LAST INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30KTS WITH
GUSTS 30 TO 40KTS TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
THURSDAY AS THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE EAST...GENERALLY
DROPPING TO UNDER 15KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND UNDER 10KTS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ015-030>034-042>045-
     050>053-065>068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016>018.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KLBF 290521
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
PLAINS WITH THE AXIS OF THE DEEP TROUGH OUT EAST JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE COLD FRONT DIPPING DOWN
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WAS TIGHTENED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE ONGOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP TO
700MB FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS...THE DEEP MIXING BROUGHT GUSTS UP TO 43KTS TO THE SURFACE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH WINDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED FOR ALL
AREAS. THE DEEP MIXING ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED IN PLACES. WAS ALSO SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. HOWEVER WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
ANYTHING WAS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW LEVELS WERE VERY DRY
WITH CEILINGS AT 6-9K FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...BEING PUSHED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -2C TO -7C BY 18Z
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STAY HIGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
NOT BEGIN TO RELAX UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR DESPITE THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
KEPT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT IF WINDS DROP OFF AT ALL
THESE MAY BE TOO WARM AND MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS MAY DROP OFF
EARLIER. SEEING SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS BUILDING IN
AGAIN. THIS INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW 0C. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRENDED LOWS A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE COME IN SLOWER WITH A SFC HIGH SLIDING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS A LOW LEVEL JET STILL
DEVELOPS DURING THE PERIOD...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS TO BE
MORE TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY MIX DOWN WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SFC TEMPS BY SUNRISE ACROSS WESTERN SANDHILLS. SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE CA/MEXICAN BORDER. WEAK MID
LEVEL WAA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RESULT IN A MEAGER WARM UP FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

12Z GFS/NAM/EC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE ALL TRENDED MUCH DRIER ACROSS
NEBRASKA FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM
THE 00Z SOLUTIONS OF TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BLANKETED MOST OF THE AREA
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER STREAMS AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN STREAM PV MAX...ROBUST IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...IS NOW PROGGED TO BE QUICKER AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHEARS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS AND EC BOTH DROPPED
THEIR LAYER PWAT VALUES FOR LBF BY ALMOST HALF AN INCH ON SATURDAY.
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA...MAKING IT TOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY QPF. THE RESULT IS A
MUCH DRIER FORECAST...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY CUT OUT
POPS UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS WITHIN THE
TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERATING QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AT A PREMIUM AND ANY SNOWFALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE AS H85 TEMPS COOL TO -10C TO -16C ACROSS THE
CWA....KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REVERTS BACK
TO THE FAMILIAR WEST COAST RIDGE AND STRONG LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST PRIOR TO 12Z...THEN DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG










000
FXUS63 KLBF 290521
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
PLAINS WITH THE AXIS OF THE DEEP TROUGH OUT EAST JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE COLD FRONT DIPPING DOWN
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WAS TIGHTENED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE ONGOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP TO
700MB FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS...THE DEEP MIXING BROUGHT GUSTS UP TO 43KTS TO THE SURFACE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH WINDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED FOR ALL
AREAS. THE DEEP MIXING ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED IN PLACES. WAS ALSO SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. HOWEVER WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
ANYTHING WAS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW LEVELS WERE VERY DRY
WITH CEILINGS AT 6-9K FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...BEING PUSHED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -2C TO -7C BY 18Z
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STAY HIGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
NOT BEGIN TO RELAX UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR DESPITE THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
KEPT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT IF WINDS DROP OFF AT ALL
THESE MAY BE TOO WARM AND MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS MAY DROP OFF
EARLIER. SEEING SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS BUILDING IN
AGAIN. THIS INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW 0C. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRENDED LOWS A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE COME IN SLOWER WITH A SFC HIGH SLIDING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS A LOW LEVEL JET STILL
DEVELOPS DURING THE PERIOD...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS TO BE
MORE TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY MIX DOWN WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SFC TEMPS BY SUNRISE ACROSS WESTERN SANDHILLS. SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE CA/MEXICAN BORDER. WEAK MID
LEVEL WAA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RESULT IN A MEAGER WARM UP FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

12Z GFS/NAM/EC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE ALL TRENDED MUCH DRIER ACROSS
NEBRASKA FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM
THE 00Z SOLUTIONS OF TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BLANKETED MOST OF THE AREA
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER STREAMS AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN STREAM PV MAX...ROBUST IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...IS NOW PROGGED TO BE QUICKER AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHEARS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS AND EC BOTH DROPPED
THEIR LAYER PWAT VALUES FOR LBF BY ALMOST HALF AN INCH ON SATURDAY.
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA...MAKING IT TOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY QPF. THE RESULT IS A
MUCH DRIER FORECAST...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY CUT OUT
POPS UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS WITHIN THE
TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERATING QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AT A PREMIUM AND ANY SNOWFALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE AS H85 TEMPS COOL TO -10C TO -16C ACROSS THE
CWA....KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REVERTS BACK
TO THE FAMILIAR WEST COAST RIDGE AND STRONG LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST PRIOR TO 12Z...THEN DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG











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