000
FXUS63 KGID 212359
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY WEATHER FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS...RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...AND ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY SURROUNDS THE
MISSOURI VALLEY MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR
AREA...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 500MB PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA
FROM KLBF AND KOAX. THE STRONGEST TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
IS ACTUALLY LOCATED WITHIN THE LOWEST ~8000FT AGL...WITH A WIND
NEAR 50KTS INDICATED BETWEEN 700 AND 800MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CLEARLY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL LOW NEARING THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS
OVER THE NORTHERN MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A
RESULT.

A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...WORKING IN CONCERT
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 800MB...HAS PROMOTED A FAIRLY
BREEZY DAY ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...HAVE PERIODICALLY HIT WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT BEING SAID...SUCH OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN
FLEETING AND NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT THE WIND SPEED FOR THESE LOCATIONS IS SO
MARGINAL WITH RESPECT TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST OUT OF OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND AN OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING SETTLES IN
OVER THE AREA HEADING INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FINALLY...A DECREASING LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A WEAKER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WOULD OTHERWISE PROVIDE A
SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING...BUT WITH CLOUD COVER ON THE DECREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER.
GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR CWA. WE HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED TO
SEE ANY SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA TODAY...BUT WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND AN INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IT SEEMS LOGICAL THAT WE OUGHT TO BE SOMEWHAT
WARMER DURING ON WEDNESDAY. AN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGING
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRYING
TO NOSE INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH IS A LITTLE ON THE COOLER
SIDE AND LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF
THAT WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. BY THURSDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTH. WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND
70 DEGREES.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE BATTERED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SPINNING
OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE WESTERN CONUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME
FRAME.

THE FIRST OF THE WAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THE MOISTURE INCREASES ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGH
PLAINS AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER WAVE
AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

BY SATURDAY A STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WITH WARMER
AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MUCAPES
APPROACH 4500 J/KG. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARM AIR HELPS TO
DESTABILIZE THINGS FURTHER AND MUCAPES OVER 5000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE A FEW MORE DIFFERENCES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GFS HAS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WEST THAN THE ECMWF DOES
AND HAS SOME STRONGER WAVES THAT MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. WITH THE
MODELS HAVING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THEY STILL HAVE SOME
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT IN
SOME LOWER POPS. IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE
TIME...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCES. THE OTHER CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
THE MODELS IS THAT THERE IS GENERALLY A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE CEILING HEIGHTS TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE
CURRENTLY VFR...BUT BARELY...AND UPSTREAM...CEILINGS DIP TO MVFR.
ANTICIPATE THAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY MVFR...BUT COULD BE VFR
AT TIMES. CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
WIND BEING A BIT GUSTY ONCE AGAIN...BUT NOT AS GUSTY AS TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

000
FXUS63 KOAX 212321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KOMA AND KLNK ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR
LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A
FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE OCCURING ACROSS THE KOMA AREA SO HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS. MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KOFK ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CATEGORIES AT ALL SITES IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.

KERN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE SHOWERS...CLOUDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...THEN THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY.

AT 12Z...THE H5 LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  PER THE UA MAPS...WARMER
AIR IS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.  THIS
WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE +8C TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AT ABR...HOWEVER IT
WAS ONLY +3C AT FSD.  AS A RESULT...THETA-E ADVECTION OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN AND THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS SD AND MN
WEDNESDAY.  THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND WILL TRY
TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINLY FOCUS CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH WITH ISOLD SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH AND MAINLY DRY
FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WITH
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY 46 TO 51 AND
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50 NEAR THE SD BORDER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S WITH DECREASING CLOUDCOVER.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE WEST COAST. WE WILL SEE MID
LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING THURSDAY
NIGHT TO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE 70S.

THERE WILL BE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO WAVES OF ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE CONVECTION WILL BE PERIODIC...SO EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILDER IN THE 70S AND 80S AND THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
A RAIN-FREE PERIODS AS WELL.

ZAPOTOCNY

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLBF 212305
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
605 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDS
INTO MONTANA...WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM 999MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH
IOWAS MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD INVOLVE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES BOTH TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 19Z WITH A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS ALSO
LOCATED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM
WAS PART OF A LARGER TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. COOL AIR ACCOMPANIED THIS SYSTEM AS 850MB WINDS
WERE MEASURED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM THE 21.12Z UPPER AIR DATA. THIS KEPT HIGHS TODAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ROTATED
AROUND THIS SYSTEM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEN MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BY 23.00Z SHOULD BE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...TO EVENTUALLY CLEAR SKIES AND BRING AN END TO THE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GOING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THESE SHOWERS WILL END EARLIER. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SLOWLY CLEARING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SO HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS TONIGHT WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER NOW
EXPECTED.

LOWS WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE TO THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE AND WINDS WILL STAY A BIT HIGHER.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WARMER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY 7-9 DEGREES...AND
WITH SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD GET HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WILL STAY QUITE
COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM BUT CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY ON. AS THE RIDGE SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING AND HOW COLD
THEY WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S. NORMAL FOR THE SEASON IS 48 AT
KLBF. NORMAL HIGH IS 76. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD CARRY WEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
THURSDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCHC T THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES. WITH MIXING AND CLOUD COVER WAA
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 50S OVER NIGHT. STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT THE GULF
OPEN AND WAVES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
DISCOUNTED COOLER TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED BY THE EC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. CIGS OF 2000 TO
4000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED CLOUDS AON 5000 FT AGL ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT MVFR CIGS RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000
FT AGL TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL RAISE
TO 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT THE KVTN TERMINAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VISBYS DOWN TO 4SM
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT AND MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CLB

000
FXUS63 KOAX 212037
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
337 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE SHOWERS...CLOUDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...THEN THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY.

AT 12Z...THE H5 LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  PER THE UA MAPS...WARMER
AIR IS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.  THIS
WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE +8C TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AT ABR...HOWEVER IT
WAS ONLY +3C AT FSD.  AS A RESULT...THETA-E ADVECTION OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN AND THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS SD AND MN
WEDNESDAY.  THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND WILL TRY
TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINLY FOCUS CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH WITH ISOLD SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH AND MAINLY DRY
FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER WITH
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY 46 TO 51 AND
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50 NEAR THE SD BORDER TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S WITH DECREASING CLOUDCOVER.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE WEST COAST. WE WILL SEE MID
LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING THURSDAY
NIGHT TO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE 70S.

THERE WILL BE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO WAVES OF ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE CONVECTION WILL BE PERIODIC...SO EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILDER IN THE 70S AND 80S AND THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT
A RAIN-FREE PERIODS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KOMA/KLNK...BUT LIKELY BECOMING MVFR BY 00-03Z...WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. KOFK WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 00-03Z...WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TAF SITE...THEN BECOMING IFR BY 06-09Z. WINDS WILL
BE WEST SOUTHWEST...THEN NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12 TO
15 KNOTS...GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 28 KNOTS THROUGH 23-01Z.

DEWALD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

ZAPOTOCNY

000
FXUS63 KLBF 212024
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDS
INTO MONTANA...WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM 999MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH
IOWAS MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013


FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD INVOLVE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES BOTH TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 19Z WITH A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS ALSO
LOCATED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM
WAS PART OF A LARGER TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. COOL AIR ACCOMPANIED THIS SYSTEM AS 850MB WINDS
WERE MEASURED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM THE 21.12Z UPPER AIR DATA. THIS KEPT HIGHS TODAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ROTATED
AROUND THIS SYSTEM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEN MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BY 23.00Z SHOULD BE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...TO EVENTUALLY CLEAR SKIES AND BRING AN END TO THE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GOING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THESE SHOWERS WILL END EARLIER. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SLOWLY CLEARING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SO HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS TONIGHT WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER NOW
EXPECTED.

LOWS WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE TO THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE AND WINDS WILL STAY A BIT HIGHER.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WARMER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY 7-9 DEGREES...AND
WITH SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD GET HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WILL STAY QUITE
COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM BUT CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY ON. AS THE RIDGE SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING AND HOW COLD
THEY WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S. NORMAL FOR THE SEASON IS 48 AT
KLBF. NORMAL HIGH IS 76. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD CARRY WEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
THURSDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCHC T THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES. WITH MIXING AND CLOUD COVER WAA
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 50S OVER NIGHT. STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT THE GULF
OPEN AND WAVES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
DISCOUNTED COOLER TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED BY THE EC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY TO STRONG AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
STAY A BIT HIGHER OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY IN AREAS EAST OF A KVTN TO KBBW LINE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK LIKELY OVER WESTERN INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...WHILE IFR CEILINGS AND
MAYBE SOME 4SM VISIBILITIES ARE LOOKING LIKELY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...BROOKS

000
FXUS63 KGID 212019
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
319 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS...RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...AND ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY SURROUNDS THE
MISSOURI VALLEY MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR
AREA...MAXING OUT AT AROUND 35KTS NEAR 500MB PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA
FROM KLBF AND KOAX. THE STRONGEST TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA
IS ACTUALLY LOCATED WITHIN THE LOWEST ~8000FT AGL...WITH A WIND
NEAR 50KTS INDICATED BETWEEN 700 AND 800MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CLEARLY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL LOW NEARING THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS
OVER THE NORTHERN MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A
RESULT.

A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT...WORKING IN CONCERT
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 800MB...HAS PROMOTED A FAIRLY
BREEZY DAY ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...HAVE PERIODICALLY HIT WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT BEING SAID...SUCH OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN
FLEETING AND NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT THE WIND SPEED FOR THESE LOCATIONS IS SO
MARGINAL WITH RESPECT TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH NOTHING IN THE WAY OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST OUT OF OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND AN OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING SETTLES IN
OVER THE AREA HEADING INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FINALLY...A DECREASING LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A WEAKER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WOULD OTHERWISE PROVIDE A
SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING...BUT WITH CLOUD COVER ON THE DECREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER.
GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH AN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR CWA. WE HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED TO
SEE ANY SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA TODAY...BUT WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND AN INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IT SEEMS LOGICAL THAT WE OUGHT TO BE SOMEWHAT
WARMER DURING ON WEDNESDAY. AN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGING
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS OUR CWA FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRYING
TO NOSE INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH IS A LITTLE ON THE COOLER
SIDE AND LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF
THAT WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. BY THURSDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTH. WITH SOME SUNSHINE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND
70 DEGREES.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE BATTERED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SPINNING
OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE WESTERN CONUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME
FRAME.

THE FIRST OF THE WAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE SOUTH WINDS THE MOISTURE INCREASES ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGH
PLAINS AND SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER WAVE
AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

BY SATURDAY A STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WITH WARMER
AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MUCAPES
APPROACH 4500 J/KG. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARM AIR HELPS TO
DESTABILIZE THINGS FURTHER AND MUCAPES OVER 5000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE A FEW MORE DIFFERENCES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GFS HAS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WEST THAN THE ECMWF DOES
AND HAS SOME STRONGER WAVES THAT MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. WITH THE
MODELS HAVING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THEY STILL HAVE SOME
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT IN
SOME LOWER POPS. IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE
TIME...BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCES. THE OTHER CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
THE MODELS IS THAT THERE IS GENERALLY A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST UNTIL 02Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE AT KGRI THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE
REALIZED STARTING THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY...THUS THE MVFR FORECAST 02Z ONWARD. THE SURFACE WIND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...SUSTAINED NEAR 19KTS AND GUSTING AROUND 27KTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 12KTS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT KGRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BRYANT

000
FXUS63 KLBF 211735
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING HAS ENHANCED
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEBRASKA...WITH WINDS NOW BLOWING AT 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TOWARDS 40 MPH IN PLACES. MODELS ARE
INDICATING WINDS WILL PEAK FROM NOW THROUGH AROUND 20Z...THEN AS
THE LOW SHIFTS EAST...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS
WELL. AFTERNOON MIXING...WITH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A DECREASING
TREND THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS THAT HAVE BRIEFLY
REACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THINKING THIS WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH...OR WITH LONG ENOUGH DURATION AND WILL BE RIGHT
AT THE LOWER THRESHOLD FOR A WIND ADVISORY IF LOCATIONS DO HIT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED AT 30 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE ON TREND...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST ARE ALSO ON TRACK AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SO NO CHANGES IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MORE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER
THE RADAR RETURNS ARE NOT NEARLY AS PROLIFIC AS THEY WERE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH TOTALS OF 1/10
OF AN INCH. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO
FILL AND WOBBLE SOUTH THROUGH SWRN MN AND NRN IA TODAY AND THEN OPEN
UP TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WOULD THEN PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 2 DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

WINDS CONTINUE STRONG TODAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30 MPH. THE RAP
IS SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR KVTN AND A BLEND OF THE MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE KEEPS THE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS AREA
WILL BE UNDER THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT THE RAP 500M
AGL WINDS ARE AROUND 26 KTS WHICH EQUATES TO 26 MPH AT THE SFC.
WINDS ARE ALSO FCST TO WEAKEN MID TO LATE AFTN.

VERY COOL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE CLOUDINESS AND COOL AIR
ALOFT. LOWER 50S TO MID 60S IS ALL WE WILL MANAGE AND LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 40S WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY...STILL SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
BECOME SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND VERY LITTLE LIFT INDICATED.
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND BE
LIGHTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
ALSO BUILD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. TIME SECTIONS
INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF FA...WHILE NORTHEAST
TO STAY OVERCAST. ONLY A MINOR CHANGE TO HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM
60-64 NCTRL TO 65-72 SOUTHWEST. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MAY RESULT IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR THURSDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO BRING INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. LOOKS
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST TO MOSTLY SUNNY EAST. WITH ABSENCE OF STRATUS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP MOST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
UPPER 60S...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST SIMILAR IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH UP THE HIGH PLAINS. PRONOUNCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA SUPPORTIVE OF 20-30
POPS SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF FA.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH H85
DEWPOINTS FROM 12-15C AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL...THE PRESENCE OF
A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS ACROSS THE REGION EACH NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S
FRIDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY TO STRONG AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
STAY A BIT HIGHER OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY IN AREAS EAST OF A KVTN TO KBBW LINE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK LIKELY OVER WESTERN INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...WHILE IFR CEILINGS AND
MAYBE SOME 4SM VISIBILITIES ARE LOOKING LIKELY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROOKS

000
FXUS63 KOAX 211732
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
DROPPED TEMPS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ALSO BROUGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CYCLONIC FLOW IS A LITTLE
STRONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KOMA/KLNK...BUT LIKELY BECOMING MVFR BY 00-03Z...WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. KOFK WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 00-03Z...WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TAF SITE...THEN BECOMING IFR BY 06-09Z. WINDS WILL
BE WEST SOUTHWEST...THEN NORTHWEST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12 TO
15 KNOTS...GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 28 KNOTS THROUGH 23-01Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW SPINS
NEARBY.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST SD/SOUTHEAST ND...WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FROM
NORTHERN CA THROUGH CENTRAL SASK.  UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK UP TO 95KT
EXTENDED FROM TX/OK PANHANDLES TO NORTHWEST MO. DEEP 850MB LOW WAS
CENTERED IN EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS/WESTERN OK...AND WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MN/NORTHERN WI/UP OF MI.  850MB DEWPOINTS
OF 8C+ COVERED THE BROAD AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...WITH DRIER AIR
ALSO INTO NEB/IA/NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST SD...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ALONG THE MO
RIVER VALLEY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE STABILITY
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND THINK CWA WILL AVOID SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  MAY SEE A SHOWER SKIRT THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS TOWARD
NORTHWEST IA...BUT THINK SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDER...AND HAVE KEPT PRECIP MENTION LIMITED TO SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK QUIET AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...WITH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ECMWF PROG INDICATES FRONT WOULD THEN
SAG SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...WHILE GFS HINTS AT FRONT LIFTING NORTH.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE ENOUGH TO
KICK UP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.  WOULD EXPECT A DRY PERIOD OR TWO AS
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOCUSING ON THE HIGH PLAINS AS WELL AS IN A CORRIDOR ALONG THE
FRONT.  MODEL BLENDS HAVE SPRAYED THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
CHANCE POPS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO PULL BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN
PERIODS THAT LOOK LESS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.  UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY...AS BEST FORCING FOR STORMS STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF HERE...BUT RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGING.

MAYES

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

DEWALD

000
FXUS63 KGID 211715
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY PLACED THE UPPER LOW CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND TRANSLATE SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH...OUR REGION WILL
SEE COLDER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
TODAY.  CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID/UPPER 50S IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AND IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THIS AFTN.  ALTHOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS AFTN WITH BETTER CHCS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN NEB IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW/DYNAMICS
WHILE FARTHER SOUTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER LLVLS.  NORMAL
HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S...AND WE WILL FALL SHORT
OF THIS TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FM NEAR 60F IN OUR NORTH TO NEAR
70F IN THE SOUTH.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW REACHES IOWA AND A WRAPAROUND
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COULD LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE WENT WITH SILENT POPS.  CLOUD COVER AND
STEADY WINDS TONIGHT SHLD HOLD LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THURSDAY AS
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
WEDNESDAY WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF MAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THURSDAY...
EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR
INSTABILITY TO BUILD. THIS BUILDING INSTABILITY SHOULD MARK A
RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY 80S EXPECTED OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WHILE THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATING THE CAP WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEVERAL THOUSAND
JOULES OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AT THIS POINT THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THE EUROPEAN
COMPUTER MODEL IS DEFINITELY A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP THAN
THE 00Z GFS ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT BOUNDARY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT EITHER WAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
AROUND BOTH DAYS...WITH THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST UNTIL 02Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE AT KGRI THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE
REALIZED STARTING THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY...THUS THE MVFR FORECAST 02Z ONWARD. THE SURFACE WIND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...SUSTAINED NEAR 19KTS AND GUSTING AROUND 27KTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 12KTS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT KGRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...BRYANT

000
FXUS63 KLBF 211520
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1020 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING HAS ENHANCED
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEBRASKA...WITH WINDS NOW BLOWING AT 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TOWARDS 40 MPH IN PLACES. MODELS ARE
INDICATING WINDS WILL PEAK FROM NOW THROUGH AROUND 20Z...THEN AS
THE LOW SHIFTS EAST...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS
WELL. AFTERNOON MIXING...WITH STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A DECREASING
TREND THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS THAT HAVE BRIEFLY
REACHED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THINKING THIS WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH...OR WITH LONG ENOUGH DURATION AND WILL BE RIGHT
AT THE LOWER THRESHOLD FOR A WIND ADVISORY IF LOCATIONS DO HIT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED AT 30 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE ON TREND...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST ARE ALSO ON TRACK AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SO NO CHANGES IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MORE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER
THE RADAR RETURNS ARE NOT NEARLY AS PROLIFIC AS THEY WERE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH TOTALS OF 1/10
OF AN INCH. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO
FILL AND WOBBLE SOUTH THROUGH SWRN MN AND NRN IA TODAY AND THEN OPEN
UP TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WOULD THEN PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 2 DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

WINDS CONTINUE STRONG TODAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30 MPH. THE RAP
IS SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR KVTN AND A BLEND OF THE MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE KEEPS THE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS AREA
WILL BE UNDER THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT THE RAP 500M
AGL WINDS ARE AROUND 26 KTS WHICH EQUATES TO 26 MPH AT THE SFC.
WINDS ARE ALSO FCST TO WEAKEN MID TO LATE AFTN.

VERY COOL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE CLOUDINESS AND COOL AIR
ALOFT. LOWER 50S TO MID 60S IS ALL WE WILL MANAGE AND LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 40S WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY...STILL SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
BECOME SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND VERY LITTLE LIFT INDICATED.
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND BE
LIGHTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
ALSO BUILD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. TIME SECTIONS
INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF FA...WHILE NORTHEAST
TO STAY OVERCAST. ONLY A MINOR CHANGE TO HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM
60-64 NCTRL TO 65-72 SOUTHWEST. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MAY RESULT IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR THURSDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO BRING INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. LOOKS
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST TO MOSTLY SUNNY EAST. WITH ABSENCE OF STRATUS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP MOST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
UPPER 60S...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST SIMILAR IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH UP THE HIGH PLAINS. PRONOUNCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA SUPPORTIVE OF 20-30
POPS SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF FA.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH H85
DEWPOINTS FROM 12-15C AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL...THE PRESENCE OF
A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS ACROSS THE REGION EACH NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S
FRIDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 TODAY
AND TONIGHT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2...GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CDC

000
FXUS63 KOAX 211130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
AT KOFK. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AT KLNK AND
KOMA AS SOME HEATING OCCURS...BUT CEILINGS AT KOFK WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE...DROPPING TO MVFR AT KOMA AND KLNK. SOME IFR CEILINGS AR
POSSIBLE AT KOFK...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. SOME OCCASIONAL -SHRA MAY
ALSO OCCUR AT KOFK THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT CHANCES WERE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF FOR NOW.

MILLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW SPINS
NEARBY.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST SD/SOUTHEAST ND...WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FROM
NORTHERN CA THROUGH CENTRAL SASK.  UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK UP TO 95KT
EXTENDED FROM TX/OK PANHANDLES TO NORTHWEST MO. DEEP 850MB LOW WAS
CENTERED IN EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS/WESTERN OK...AND WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MN/NORTHERN WI/UP OF MI.  850MB DEWPOINTS
OF 8C+ COVERED THE BROAD AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...WITH DRIER AIR
ALSO INTO NEB/IA/NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST SD...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ALONG THE MO
RIVER VALLEY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE STABILITY
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND THINK CWA WILL AVOID SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  MAY SEE A SHOWER SKIRT THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS TOWARD
NORTHWEST IA...BUT THINK SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDER...AND HAVE KEPT PRECIP MENTION LIMITED TO SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK QUIET AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...WITH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ECMWF PROG INDICATES FRONT WOULD THEN
SAG SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...WHILE GFS HINTS AT FRONT LIFTING NORTH.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE ENOUGH TO
KICK UP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.  WOULD EXPECT A DRY PERIOD OR TWO AS
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOCUSING ON THE HIGH PLAINS AS WELL AS IN A CORRIDOR ALONG THE
FRONT.  MODEL BLENDS HAVE SPRAYED THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
CHANCE POPS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO PULL BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN
PERIODS THAT LOOK LESS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.  UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY...AS BEST FORCING FOR STORMS STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF HERE...BUT RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGING.

MAYES

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLBF 211128 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MORE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER
THE RADAR RETURNS ARE NOT NEARLY AS PROLIFIC AS THEY WERE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH TOTALS OF 1/10
OF AN INCH. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO
FILL AND WOBBLE SOUTH THROUGH SWRN MN AND NRN IA TODAY AND THEN OPEN
UP TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WOULD THEN PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 2 DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

WINDS CONTINUE STRONG TODAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30 MPH. THE RAP
IS SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR KVTN AND A BLEND OF THE MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE KEEPS THE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS AREA
WILL BE UNDER THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT THE RAP 500M
AGL WINDS ARE AROUND 26 KTS WHICH EQUATES TO 26 MPH AT THE SFC.
WINDS ARE ALSO FCST TO WEAKEN MID TO LATE AFTN.

VERY COOL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE CLOUDINESS AND COOL AIR
ALOFT. LOWER 50S TO MID 60S IS ALL WE WILL MANAGE AND LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 40S WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY...STILL SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
BECOME SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND VERY LITTLE LIFT INDICATED.
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND BE
LIGHTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
ALSO BUILD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. TIME SECTIONS
INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF FA...WHILE NORTHEAST
TO STAY OVERCAST. ONLY A MINOR CHANGE TO HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM
60-64 NCTRL TO 65-72 SOUTHWEST. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MAY RESULT IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR THURSDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO BRING INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. LOOKS
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST TO MOSTLY SUNNY EAST. WITH ABSENCE OF STRATUS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP MOST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
UPPER 60S...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST SIMILAR IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH UP THE HIGH PLAINS. PRONOUNCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA SUPPORTIVE OF 20-30
POPS SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF FA.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH H85
DEWPOINTS FROM 12-15C AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL...THE PRESENCE OF
A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS ACROSS THE REGION EACH NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S
FRIDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 TODAY
AND TONIGHT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2...GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CDC

000
FXUS63 KGID 211121
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY PLACED THE UPPER LOW CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND TRANSLATE SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH...OUR REGION WILL
SEE COLDER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
TODAY.  CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID/UPPER 50S IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AND IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THIS AFTN.  ALTHOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS AFTN WITH BETTER CHCS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN NEB IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW/DYNAMICS
WHILE FARTHER SOUTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER LLVLS.  NORMAL
HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S...AND WE WILL FALL SHORT
OF THIS TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FM NEAR 60F IN OUR NORTH TO NEAR
70F IN THE SOUTH.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW REACHES IOWA AND A WRAPAROUND
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COULD LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE WENT WITH SILENT POPS.  CLOUD COVER AND
STEADY WINDS TONIGHT SHLD HOLD LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THURSDAY AS
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
WEDNESDAY WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF MAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THURSDAY...
EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR
INSTABILITY TO BUILD. THIS BUILDING INSTABILITY SHOULD MARK A
RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY 80S EXPECTED OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WHILE THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATING THE CAP WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEVERAL THOUSAND
JOULES OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AT THIS POINT THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THE EUROPEAN
COMPUTER MODEL IS DEFINITELY A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP THAN
THE 00Z GFS ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT BOUNDARY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT EITHER WAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
AROUND BOTH DAYS...WITH THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS
OVER GRI THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...BEDA

000
FXUS63 KGID 210957
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
457 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY PLACED THE UPPER LOW CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND TRANSLATE SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH...OUR REGION WILL
SEE COLDER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
TODAY.  CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID/UPPER 50S IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AND IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THIS AFTN.  ALTHOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS AFTN WITH BETTER CHCS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN NEB IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW/DYNAMICS
WHILE FARTHER SOUTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER LLVLS.  NORMAL
HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S...AND WE WILL FALL SHORT
OF THIS TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FM NEAR 60F IN OUR NORTH TO NEAR
70F IN THE SOUTH.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW REACHES IOWA AND A WRAPAROUND
SHOWER/SPRINKLE COULD LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE WENT WITH SILENT POPS.  CLOUD COVER AND
STEADY WINDS TONIGHT SHLD HOLD LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THURSDAY AS
A BIT MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
WEDNESDAY WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL FOR THE END OF MAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THURSDAY...
EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR
INSTABILITY TO BUILD. THIS BUILDING INSTABILITY SHOULD MARK A
RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY 80S EXPECTED OVER
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WHILE THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATING THE CAP WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH SEVERAL THOUSAND
JOULES OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AT THIS POINT THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THE EUROPEAN
COMPUTER MODEL IS DEFINITELY A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP THAN
THE 00Z GFS ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT BOUNDARY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT EITHER WAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
AROUND BOTH DAYS...WITH THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

CLOUD COVER WITH VARYING HEIGHTS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR WILL IMPACT
KGRI THRU THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. A
FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTN BUT CHCS ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF. WINDS WILL
BE STEADY FM THE W/NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...FAY

000
FXUS63 KLBF 210858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MORE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER
THE RADAR RETURNS ARE NOT NEARLY AS PROLIFIC AS THEY WERE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH TOTALS OF 1/10
OF AN INCH. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO
FILL AND WOBBLE SOUTH THROUGH SWRN MN AND NRN IA TODAY AND THEN OPEN
UP TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WOULD THEN PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 2 DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

WINDS CONTINUE STRONG TODAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30 MPH. THE RAP
IS SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR KVTN AND A BLEND OF THE MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE KEEPS THE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS AREA
WILL BE UNDER THE STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT THE RAP 500M
AGL WINDS ARE AROUND 26 KTS WHICH EQUATES TO 26 MPH AT THE SFC.
WINDS ARE ALSO FCST TO WEAKEN MID TO LATE AFTN.

VERY COOL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE CLOUDINESS AND COOL AIR
ALOFT. LOWER 50S TO MID 60S IS ALL WE WILL MANAGE AND LOWS TONIGHT
FALL INTO THE 40S WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY...STILL SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
BECOME SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND VERY LITTLE LIFT INDICATED.
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND BE
LIGHTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
ALSO BUILD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. TIME SECTIONS
INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF FA...WHILE NORTHEAST
TO STAY OVERCAST. ONLY A MINOR CHANGE TO HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM
60-64 NCTRL TO 65-72 SOUTHWEST. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MAY RESULT IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR THURSDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO BRING INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. LOOKS
PARTLY CLOUDY WEST TO MOSTLY SUNNY EAST. WITH ABSENCE OF STRATUS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP MOST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
UPPER 60S...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST SIMILAR IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH UP THE HIGH PLAINS. PRONOUNCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA SUPPORTIVE OF 20-30
POPS SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF FA.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH H85
DEWPOINTS FROM 12-15C AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL...THE PRESENCE OF
A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS ACROSS THE REGION EACH NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 70S
FRIDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AON 4000 FT AGL WILL BECOME BROKEN AT 3500 FT
AGL TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30
KTS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS TUESDAY
EVENING.

FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS OF 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO 3000 FT AGL LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO AROUND 12 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. GIVEN SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE MENTION WITH A PROB30 GROUP.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CDC

000
FXUS63 KOAX 210823
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW SPINS
NEARBY.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST SD/SOUTHEAST ND...WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FROM
NORTHERN CA THROUGH CENTRAL SASK.  UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK UP TO 95KT
EXTENDED FROM TX/OK PANHANDLES TO NORTHWEST MO. DEEP 850MB LOW WAS
CENTERED IN EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS/WESTERN OK...AND WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MN/NORTHERN WI/UP OF MI.  850MB DEWPOINTS
OF 8C+ COVERED THE BROAD AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...WITH DRIER AIR
ALSO INTO NEB/IA/NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST SD...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ALONG THE MO
RIVER VALLEY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE STABILITY
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND THINK CWA WILL AVOID SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE.  MAY SEE A SHOWER SKIRT THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS TOWARD
NORTHWEST IA...BUT THINK SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDER...AND HAVE KEPT PRECIP MENTION LIMITED TO SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK QUIET AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...WITH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ECMWF PROG INDICATES FRONT WOULD THEN
SAG SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...WHILE GFS HINTS AT FRONT LIFTING NORTH.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE ENOUGH TO
KICK UP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.  WOULD EXPECT A DRY PERIOD OR TWO AS
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOCUSING ON THE HIGH PLAINS AS WELL AS IN A CORRIDOR ALONG THE
FRONT.  MODEL BLENDS HAVE SPRAYED THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
CHANCE POPS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO PULL BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN
PERIODS THAT LOOK LESS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.  UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY...AS BEST FORCING FOR STORMS STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF HERE...BUT RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGING.

MAYES

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL SPREAD OVER ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LIKELY GOING FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR. A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT TOO SMALL OF A CHANCE
TO FEEL THE NEED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLBF 210524 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AT H5 RIDGING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CLOSED LOW
UNDERNEATH OVER THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE 999MB LOW OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A WARM FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT
FROM LOW SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS OVER THE PAST HOUR AND WILL CANCEL THE WIND
ADVISORY AT 6 PM CDT. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS...AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 25 MPH. A LINE
OF SHOWERS IS EXITING SWRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AROUND 7 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE IT STARTS PUSHING EAST. THIS
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM. FARTHER
SOUTH...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT A
MINIMUM. OVERALL...EXPECTING UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR
TWO EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING...AND WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURE WISE VERY COOL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 50S
TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LONG TERM MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN EC
BRINGS IN A COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH ALL OF THE
WAFFLING WITH THIS PRESENT SYSTEM 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE COME IN
CLOSER WITH THE EARLIER EC SOLUTIONS. CLOUDS CLEARING TUESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. HAVE GONE WITH COLDEST MAV GUIDANCE
FOR THE COOP STATIONS WITH +3C AT 850MB. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS DIMINISHING TO SPRINKLES. WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
AGAIN GONE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN
PLACE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. BULK SHEAR AT 40 TO 50KTS AND LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING COULD BE SEVERE WEATHER. GULF
OPENS WIDE AND FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND UPPER LOW SENDING STRONG WAVES THROUGH
WESTERN NEBRASKA THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CARRIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S SAT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AON 4000 FT AGL WILL BECOME BROKEN AT 3500 FT
AGL TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30
KTS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS TUESDAY
EVENING.

FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS OF 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO 3000 FT AGL LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO AROUND 12 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. GIVEN SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE MENTION WITH A PROB30 GROUP.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC

000
FXUS63 KGID 210453
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1153 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE AREA. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR EVEN SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SMALL LOBES OF ENERGY GET PUSHED INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CUMULUS THAT IS ACROSS THE AREA...AS SOME
OF THAT ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THE
SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN AREA THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THESE WILL BE SHOWERS...BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MUCAPE
AROUND 1200 J/KG. THIS COULD MAKE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IF THE
SHOWERS GET TO THE SOUTHEAST. DURING THE EVENING THE MUCAPE DROPS
OFF QUICKLY AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES NOT TOO
LONG AFTER SUNSET. DURING THE EVENING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALSO
DIMINISHES AND IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW AND THE LOBES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHT CHANCES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. ALSO
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

ANOTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THAT COOLER AIR IS
SPUN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD START OFF
DRY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BEGINS MOVING EAST...OUT OF OUR AREA. THE RESULTANT LACK
IN KINEMATIC FORCING AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT AS SEVERAL MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS BEGIN
EJECTING FROM A WESTERN-CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH. PERIODS OF
INCREASED DPVA AND MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION MAY BRING PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF
AN ~850MB JET STREAK MAY ALLOW FOR ENHANCED CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING POPS TO MOST ALL OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD AND
THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000J/KG...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30KTS...WILL OVERTAKE OUR AREA SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE APPARENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFT
PRODUCTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WILL GO AHEAD AND OUTLOOK
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO SATURDAY ONWARD.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SUGGESTS A SIMILAR HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE WILL BE REALIZED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND RESULTANT
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR WARMER WEATHER
TO FINISH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

CLOUD COVER WITH VARYING HEIGHTS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR WILL IMPACT
KGRI THRU THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. A
FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTN BUT CHCS ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF. WINDS WILL
BE STEADY FM THE W/NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY

000
FXUS63 KOAX 210343
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1043 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL SPREAD OVER ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LIKELY GOING FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR. A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT TOO SMALL OF A CHANCE
TO FEEL THE NEED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

KERN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL MAINLY BE SPORADIC
SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN
TEMPERATURES.

AT 12Z A SEASONABLY STRONG H30 JET WITH 80 TO 100KT WINDS DOVE
SOUTH THROUGH UTAH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AN RE-CURVES NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. THE FORECAST AREA IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE AREA OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THAT ELONGATES
BACK ACROSS COLORADO. THE H7 AND H85 WERE SIMILARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED. DECENT MOISTURE WAS NOTED PER THE 12Z KLBF RAOB TO 440MB
AND THE KOAX RAOBS TO 560MB.

BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE H5 LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
SAME LOCATION...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SEND SOME ENERGY AROUND
THE LOW. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 500-1000
J/KG. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE MAY BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN...THE
OPERATIONAL/EXPERIMENTAL MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME DRY AND
OTHERS GENERATING SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE
NAM/HRRR/RAP/HOPWRF ENSEMBLES/4KM WRF/GFS TEND TO FOCUS THE HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
COUNTIES OR IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ISOLD
ELSEWHERE...WITH A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN AND LOCAL PRECIP
AFTER SUNSET.

WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THUS A CLOUDY AND COOLER PERIOD WITH SOME CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. WE SEE A BREAK WITH
RIDGING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z
EURO IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WEATHER AND DRIES IT
OUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO...THE SAT AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
FORECAST WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADJUSTMENT AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

CZ
&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 202332
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
632 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY BUT CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK DROPS SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW
PATCHY IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO KOFK DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BUT THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THEY CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST. DO EXPECT A BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

KERN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL MAINLY BE SPORDIC
SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN
TEMPERATURES.

AT 12Z A SEASONABLY STRONG H30 JET WITH 80 TO 100KT WINDS DOVE
SOUTH THROUGH UTAH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AN RE-CURVES NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. THE FORECAST AREA IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE AREA OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THAT ELONGATES
BACK ACROSS COLORADO. THE H7 AND H85 WERE SIMILARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED. DECENT MOISTURE WAS NOTED PER THE 12Z KLBF RAOB TO 440MB
AND THE KOAX RAOBS TO 560MB.

BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE H5 LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
SAME LOCATION...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SEND SOME ENERGY AROUND
THE LOW. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 500-1000
J/KG. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE MAY BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN...THE
OPERATIONAL/EXPERIMENTAL MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME DRY AND
OTHERS GENERATING SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE
NAM/HRRR/RAP/HOPWRF ENSEMBLES/4KM WRF/GFS TEND TO FOCUS THE HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
COUNTIES OR IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ISOLD
ELSEWHERE...WITH A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN AND LOCAL PRECIP
AFTER SUNSET.

WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THUS A CLOUDY AND COOLER PERIOD WITH SOME CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. WE SEE A BREAK WITH
RIDGING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z
EURO IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WEATHER AND DRIES IT
OUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO...THE SAT AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
FORECAST WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADJUSTMENT AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGID 202316
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
616 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE AREA. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR EVEN SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SMALL LOBES OF ENERGY GET PUSHED INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CUMULUS THAT IS ACROSS THE AREA...AS SOME
OF THAT ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THE
SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN AREA THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THESE WILL BE SHOWERS...BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MUCAPE
AROUND 1200 J/KG. THIS COULD MAKE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IF THE
SHOWERS GET TO THE SOUTHEAST. DURING THE EVENING THE MUCAPE DROPS
OFF QUICKLY AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES NOT TOO
LONG AFTER SUNSET. DURING THE EVENING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALSO
DIMINISHES AND IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW AND THE LOBES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHT CHANCES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. ALSO
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

ANOTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THAT COOLER AIR IS
SPUN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD START OFF
DRY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BEGINS MOVING EAST...OUT OF OUR AREA. THE RESULTANT LACK
IN KINEMATIC FORCING AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT AS SEVERAL MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS BEGIN
EJECTING FROM A WESTERN-CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH. PERIODS OF
INCREASED DPVA AND MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION MAY BRING PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF
AN ~850MB JET STREAK MAY ALLOW FOR ENHANCED CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING POPS TO MOST ALL OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD AND
THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000J/KG...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30KTS...WILL OVERTAKE OUR AREA SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE APPARENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFT
PRODUCTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WILL GO AHEAD AND OUTLOOK
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO SATURDAY ONWARD.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SUGGESTS A SIMILAR HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE WILL BE REALIZED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND RESULTANT
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR WARMER WEATHER
TO FINISH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

KGRI WILL SEE INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER THRU THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
THE UNFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD
COVER INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THRU TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. FOR THE MOST
PART...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY BUT MAY DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE HIT OR MISS
AND DID NOT MENTION JUST YET.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY

000
FXUS63 KLBF 202307
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
607 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AT H5 RIDGING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CLOSED LOW
UNDERNEATH OVER THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE 999MB LOW OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A WARM FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT
FROM LOW SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS OVER THE PAST HOUR AND WILL CANCEL THE WIND
ADVISORY AT 6 PM CDT. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS...AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 25 MPH. A LINE
OF SHOWERS IS EXITING SWRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AROUND 7 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE IT STARTS PUSHING EAST. THIS
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM. FARTHER
SOUTH...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT A
MINIMUM. OVERALL...EXPECTING UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR
TWO EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING...AND WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURE WISE VERY COOL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 50S
TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LONG TERM MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN EC
BRINGS IN A COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH ALL OF THE
WAFFLING WITH THIS PRESENT SYSTEM 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE COME IN
CLOSER WITH THE EARLIER EC SOLUTIONS. CLOUDS CLEARING TUESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. HAVE GONE WITH COLDEST MAV GUIDANCE
FOR THE COOP STATIONS WITH +3C AT 850MB. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS DIMINISHING TO SPRINKLES. WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
AGAIN GONE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN
PLACE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. BULK SHEAR AT 40 TO 50KTS AND LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING COULD BE SEVERE WEATHER. GULF
OPENS WIDE AND FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND UPPER LOW SENDING STRONG WAVES THROUGH
WESTERN NEBRASKA THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CARRIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S SAT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ABUNDANT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT
BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS ON
TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED...WILL
HANDLE IT WITH A PROB 30 GROUP FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL AFTER 18Z
TUES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CLB

000
FXUS63 KGID 202051
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
351 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE AREA. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS OR EVEN SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SMALL LOBES OF ENERGY GET PUSHED INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CUMULUS THAT IS ACROSS THE AREA...AS SOME
OF THAT ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THE
SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN AREA THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THESE WILL BE SHOWERS...BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MUCAPE
AROUND 1200 J/KG. THIS COULD MAKE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IF THE
SHOWERS GET TO THE SOUTHEAST. DURING THE EVENING THE MUCAPE DROPS
OFF QUICKLY AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHES NOT TOO
LONG AFTER SUNSET. DURING THE EVENING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALSO
DIMINISHES AND IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW AND THE LOBES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE SLIGHT CHANCES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. ALSO
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

ANOTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THAT COOLER AIR IS
SPUN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
AROUND 50 DEGREES AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD START OFF
DRY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BEGINS MOVING EAST...OUT OF OUR AREA. THE RESULTANT LACK
IN KINEMATIC FORCING AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT AS SEVERAL MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS BEGIN
EJECTING FROM A WESTERN-CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH. PERIODS OF
INCREASED DPVA AND MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION MAY BRING PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF
AN ~850MB JET STREAK MAY ALLOW FOR ENHANCED CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY
PROVIDING POPS TO MOST ALL OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD AND
THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND EC BOTH SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000J/KG...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30KTS...WILL OVERTAKE OUR AREA SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE APPARENT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFT
PRODUCTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WILL GO AHEAD AND OUTLOOK
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO SATURDAY ONWARD.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SUGGESTS A SIMILAR HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE WILL BE REALIZED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND RESULTANT
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR WARMER WEATHER
TO FINISH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED WITH THE DAY TIME HEATING. AS THE
DAY TIME HEATING INCREASES THE INSTABILITY...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
AREA. HAVE KEPT VICINITY THUNDER FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB

000
FXUS63 KLBF 202041
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AT H5 RIDGING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CLOSED LOW
UNDERNEATH OVER THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE 999MB LOW OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A WARM FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT
FROM LOW SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE IT STARTS PUSHING EAST. THIS
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM. FARTHER
SOUTH...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT A
MINIMUM. OVERALL...EXPECTING UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR
TWO EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING...AND WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURE WISE VERY COOL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 50S
TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LONG TERM MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN EC
BRINGS IN A COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH ALL OF THE
WAFFLING WITH THIS PRESENT SYSTEM 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE COME IN
CLOSER WITH THE EARLIER EC SOLUTIONS. CLOUDS CLEARING TUESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. HAVE GONE WITH COLDEST MAV GUIDANCE
FOR THE COOP STATIONS WITH +3C AT 850MB. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS DIMINISHING TO SPRINKLES. WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
AGAIN GONE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN
PLACE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. BULK SHEAR AT 40 TO 50KTS AND LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING COULD BE SEVERE WEATHER. GULF
OPENS WIDE AND FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND UPPER LOW SENDING STRONG WAVES THROUGH
WESTERN NEBRASKA THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CARRIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S SAT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA...KEEPING LOW CEILINGS...SHOWERS...AND WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH... DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE MVFR FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS CEILINGS LIFTING TO JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004-022-023-035-
056>058.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...TAYLOR

000
FXUS63 KOAX 202040
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL MAINLY BE SPORDIC
SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN
TEMPERATURES.

AT 12Z A SEASONABLY STRONG H30 JET WITH 80 TO 100KT WINDS DOVE
SOUTH THROUGH UTAH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AN RE-CURVES NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. THE FORECAST AREA IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE AREA OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THAT ELONGATES
BACK ACROSS COLORADO. THE H7 AND H85 WERE SIMILARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED. DECENT MOISTURE WAS NOTED PER THE 12Z KLBF RAOB TO 440MB
AND THE KOAX RAOBS TO 560MB.

BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE H5 LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
SAME LOCATION...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SEND SOME ENERGY AROUND
THE LOW. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 500-1000
J/KG. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE MAY BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN...THE
OPERATIONAL/EXPERIMENTAL MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME DRY AND
OTHERS GENERATING SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE
NAM/HRRR/RAP/HOPWRF ENSEMBLES/4KM WRF/GFS TEND TO FOCUS THE HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
COUNTIES OR IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ISOLD
ELSEWHERE...WITH A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN AND LOCAL PRECIP
AFTER SUNSET.

WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THUS A CLOUDY AND COOLER PERIOD WITH SOME CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. WE SEE A BREAK WITH
RIDGING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z
EURO IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WEATHER AND DRIES IT
OUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO...THE SAT AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
FORECAST WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADJUSTMENT AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS NEAR FL050 IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS TO SOME AREAS. HOWEVER CHANCES AT TAF
SITES ARE RATHER SLIM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN...THEN CIGS NEAR FL040 WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN
NEBRASKA FROM THE NORTH. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEAR KOFK AFTER 06Z...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECAST
AT THE MOMENT.

DERGAN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

ZAPOTOCNY

000
FXUS63 KLBF 201727
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1227 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD EXIT SOUTH AND EAST BY
DAYLIGHT...MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM THEN
DROP A SECOND BATCH OF RAIN AND SHOWERS SOUTH OUT OF WRN SD THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTN. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PRESUMABLY CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH A WEAKENING TREND.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW IF THE RAP AND NAM ARE CORRECT.
NEITHER INDICATE ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM 750 MB ON UP AND THE
SFC BASED NAM THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY CHART IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

WINDS INCREASE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WEST WITH H850 WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KT. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
WERE THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH INCREASE TO AROUND
30 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO FILL.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF NAM...GEMREG AND ECM PLUS BIAS
CORRECTION FOR HIGHS AND THE 50S AND 60S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ON TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. A LOBE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DESPITE A MOIST PROFILE...LIFT WILL
BE VERY WEAK...MAINLY IN THE H850-H7 LAYER. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO
NEAR 50 PERCENT FOR SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY AND FROM 30-40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NCTRL WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SWRN NEBR
IN THE MORNING. REGARDING WINDS...STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST FROM
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBR...WHERE SUSTAINED WIND
WILL REACH NEAR 25KT AND GUST NEAR 35KT THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS
DUE TO DEEP MIX DOWN POTENTIAL WHERE UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST
WINDS EXTEND FROM THE SFC TO ABOVE 400 MB. THEREFORE A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF FORECAST WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK SIMILAR.
HIGHS WILL BE AFFECTED MOST BY CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS FROM 55-60
NCTRL TO NEAR 70 FAR SW.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NRN IOWA...STILL SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW SHOWERS TUES NIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO
BUILD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. CLEARING SKIES IN
THE WEST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO BRING COOLER LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEST TO NEAR 45 EAST. ONLY A MINOR
CHANGE TO HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM 62-66 NCTRL TO 67-73 SOUTH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH H85
DEWPOINTS FROM 12-15C AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRESENCE
OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS ACROSS THE REGION EACH NIGHT. HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THU-FRI WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA... KEEPING LOW CEILINGS... SHOWERS... AND WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH... DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE MVFR FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH PERHAPS CEILINGS LIFTING TO JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004-022-023-035-
056>058.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR

000
FXUS63 KGID 201720
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1220 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A FEW
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW AND AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE SEEN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH NEARLY
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING IN ORD SINCE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS
LATEST BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING TO PIVOT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

WHILE THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS BREAK IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED AS WEAK INSTABILITY WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK...AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
NOTICEABLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST
AND GOOD MIXING IS REALIZED.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...HOWEVER WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR NORTH...CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND KEPT SOME SMALL POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AN UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INITIALLY...THEN
SOME WARMING BUT ALSO INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES HEADING INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED PRIMARILY BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH IS CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS AND AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCE...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE QUITE SMALL...AND NON-EXISTENT IN NORTHERN KANSAS
REALLY. SUNSHINE WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ONE
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH NORTHERN REACHES BATTLING CLOUDS.

THURSDAYS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER MAP SAYS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL
PUSH OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT WILL GENERALLY KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
DRY FOR A SHORT WHILE...BUT NOT NECESSARILY RESULT IN THAT GREAT OF
WEATHER. AN EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THURSDAY WILL BACKDOOR LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW THE RIDGING
ALOFT. LITTLE CONCERNED THE FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO SUNNY SO TO
SPEAK...AND ON THE WARM SIDE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.
FINE TUNING WILL BE NEEDED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES IN THIS AREA.

AFTER THURSDAY...A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW BASICALLY OVERRIDES THE
COOLER REGIME NEAR THE SURFACE. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES CUT THROUGH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS REMAIN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THESE FEATURES CAUSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WON/T
RAIN THE WHOLE TIME BY ANY MEANS...BUT FRIDAY COULD BE PRETTY DAMP.
BASICALLY...LOTS OF 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THERE FOR THAT PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE IF MORE SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL FROM TIME-TO-TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED WITH THE DAY TIME HEATING. AS THE
DAY TIME HEATING INCREASES THE INSTABILITY...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
AREA. HAVE KEPT VICINITY THUNDER FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...JCB

000
FXUS63 KOAX 201716
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1216 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED
CAPE VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE LATE
TODAY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH MODERATE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40KT. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND RAP FORECAST SUGGEST THIS WILL BE SWEEPING
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA BEFORE 00Z. SO THE COMBINATION OF WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND A FOCUSING MECHANISM SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON
HEATING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 8C IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND MODEST TEMP-DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.

DERGAN

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS NEAR FL050 IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS TO SOME AREAS. HOWEVER CHANCES AT TAF
SITES ARE RATHER SLIM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN...THEN CIGS NEAR FL040 WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN
NEBRASKA FROM THE NORTH. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEAR KOFK AFTER 06Z...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FORECAST
AT THE MOMENT.

DERGAN
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE NEB AND ERN SD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
BROAD Q-G FORCING FOR ASCENT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND NE NEB EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONT IN NE NEB WITH MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA DRY THIS MORNING. SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER
THIS AREA OF THE CWA /SW IA AND SE NEB/ THAT WILL STEEPEN LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THIS AREA AND THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 400-600 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA. SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY SEEMS
UNLIKELY...BUT WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
SHEAR SOME HAIL SEEMS POSSIBLE IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN TAKE
PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE THE SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE SETUP FOR TUESDAY ISN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON
TSRA AS THE LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE GETS DISPLACED TO THE EAST
AS CAA MOVES THROUGH THE FA BEHIND A SFC CDFNT ON MON NIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUE/WED. WE MAY SEE
AN ISO SHOWER IN THE NRN FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT THESE
WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT EAST ON THU WITH DRY WEATHER
RETURNING...BUT THIS WILL ONLY BE FOR A SHORT TIME AS LONGER RANGE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN A TROUGH TO THE
WESTERN US WITH WAA TYPE PRECIP DEVELOPING STARTING ON FRI AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE RETURN FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AS WELL.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 201137
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
637 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.

A SWATH OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRUSH ANY OF THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD AT KOMA. THE LOWER CEILINGS
WILL BREAK BY MID-MORNING...WITH SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION AT
KOMA/KLNK FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY THUNDER
WITH THESE SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS HINT AT MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

MAYES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE NEB AND ERN SD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
BROAD Q-G FORCING FOR ASCENT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND NE NEB EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONT IN NE NEB WITH MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA DRY THIS MORNING. SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER
THIS AREA OF THE CWA /SW IA AND SE NEB/ THAT WILL STEEPEN LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THIS AREA AND THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 400-600 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA. SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY SEEMS
UNLIKELY...BUT WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
SHEAR SOME HAIL SEEMS POSSIBLE IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN TAKE
PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE THE SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE SETUP FOR TUESDAY ISN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON
TSRA AS THE LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE GETS DISPLACED TO THE EAST
AS CAA MOVES THROUGH THE FA BEHIND A SFC CDFNT ON MON NIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUE/WED. WE MAY SEE
AN ISO SHOWER IN THE NRN FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT THESE
WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT EAST ON THU WITH DRY WEATHER
RETURNING...BUT THIS WILL ONLY BE FOR A SHORT TIME AS LONGER RANGE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN A TROUGH TO THE
WESTERN US WITH WAA TYPE PRECIP DEVELOPING STARTING ON FRI AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE RETURN FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AS WELL.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99

000
FXUS63 KLBF 201122 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD EXIT SOUTH AND EAST BY
DAYLIGHT...MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM THEN
DROP A SECOND BATCH OF RAIN AND SHOWERS SOUTH OUT OF WRN SD THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTN. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PRESUMABLY CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH A WEAKENING TREND.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW IF THE RAP AND NAM ARE CORRECT.
NEITHER INDICATE ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM 750 MB ON UP AND THE
SFC BASED NAM THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY CHART IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

WINDS INCREASE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WEST WITH H850 WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KT. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
WERE THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH INCREASE TO AROUND
30 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO FILL.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF NAM...GEMREG AND ECM PLUS BIAS
CORRECTION FOR HIGHS AND THE 50S AND 60S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ON TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. A LOBE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DESPITE A MOIST PROFILE...LIFT WILL
BE VERY WEAK...MAINLY IN THE H850-H7 LAYER. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO
NEAR 50 PERCENT FOR SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY AND FROM 30-40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NCTRL WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SWRN NEBR
IN THE MORNING. REGARDING WINDS...STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST FROM
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBR...WHERE SUSTAINED WIND
WILL REACH NEAR 25KT AND GUST NEAR 35KT THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS
DUE TO DEEP MIX DOWN POTENTIAL WHERE UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST
WINDS EXTEND FROM THE SFC TO ABOVE 400 MB. THEREFORE A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF FORECAST WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK SIMILAR.
HIGHS WILL BE AFFECTED MOST BY CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS FROM 55-60
NCTRL TO NEAR 70 FAR SW.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NRN IOWA...STILL SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW SHOWERS TUES NIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO
BUILD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. CLEARING SKIES IN
THE WEST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO BRING COOLER LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEST TO NEAR 45 EAST. ONLY A MINOR
CHANGE TO HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM 62-66 NCTRL TO 67-73 SOUTH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH H85
DEWPOINTS FROM 12-15C AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRESENCE
OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS ACROSS THE REGION EACH NIGHT. HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THU-FRI WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MIXED VFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB. THE NAM
SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING. THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ACROSS NRN NEB. BEST
APPROACH WOULD BE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS TO AS CONDITIONS ARE
MOSTLY VFR AND LOOK SIGNS OF DETERIORATION BEFORE ASSIGNING MVFR
TO THE KVTN TAF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004-022-023-035-056>058.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CDC

000
FXUS63 KGID 201107
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
607 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A FEW
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW AND AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE SEEN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH NEARLY
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING IN ORD SINCE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS
LATEST BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING TO PIVOT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

WHILE THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS BREAK IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED AS WEAK INSTABILITY WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK...AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
NOTICEABLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST
AND GOOD MIXING IS REALIZED.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...HOWEVER WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR NORTH...CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND KEPT SOME SMALL POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AN UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INITIALLY...THEN
SOME WARMING BUT ALSO INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES HEADING INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED PRIMARILY BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH IS CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS AND AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCE...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE QUITE SMALL...AND NON-EXISTENT IN NORTHERN KANSAS
REALLY. SUNSHINE WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ONE
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH NORTHERN REACHES BATTLING CLOUDS.

THURSDAYS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER MAP SAYS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL
PUSH OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT WILL GENERALLY KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
DRY FOR A SHORT WHILE...BUT NOT NECESSARILY RESULT IN THAT GREAT OF
WEATHER. AN EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THURSDAY WILL BACKDOOR LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW THE RIDGING
ALOFT. LITTLE CONCERNED THE FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO SUNNY SO TO
SPEAK...AND ON THE WARM SIDE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.
FINE TUNING WILL BE NEEDED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES IN THIS AREA.

AFTER THURSDAY...A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW BASICALLY OVERRIDES THE
COOLER REGIME NEAR THE SURFACE. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES CUT THROUGH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS REMAIN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THESE FEATURES CAUSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WON/T
RAIN THE WHOLE TIME BY ANY MEANS...BUT FRIDAY COULD BE PRETTY DAMP.
BASICALLY...LOTS OF 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THERE FOR THAT PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE IF MORE SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL FROM TIME-TO-TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MID
LEVEL STRATUS DECK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT...WHICH COULD TRIGGER A VCTS LATER IN THE DAY AS
MEAGER INSTABILITY BUILDS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE SOME
AROUND SUNSET...BUT LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW TO
OUR NORTH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...SAR

000
FXUS63 KGID 200920
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A FEW
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW AND AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE SEEN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH NEARLY
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING IN ORD SINCE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS
LATEST BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING TO PIVOT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

WHILE THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS BREAK IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED AS WEAK INSTABILITY WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAK...AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
NOTICEABLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST
AND GOOD MIXING IS REALIZED.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...HOWEVER WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR NORTH...CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND KEPT SOME SMALL POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AN UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INITIALLY...THEN
SOME WARMING BUT ALSO INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES HEADING INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED PRIMARILY BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH IS CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS AND AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCE...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES ARE QUITE SMALL...AND NON-EXISTENT IN NORTHERN KANSAS
REALLY. SUNSHINE WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ONE
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH NORTHERN REACHES BATTLING CLOUDS.

THURSDAYS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER MAP SAYS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL
PUSH OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT WILL GENERALLY KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
DRY FOR A SHORT WHILE...BUT NOT NECESSARILY RESULT IN THAT GREAT OF
WEATHER. AN EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THURSDAY WILL BACKDOOR LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA...WHICH ESSENTIALLY WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW THE RIDGING
ALOFT. LITTLE CONCERNED THE FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO SUNNY SO TO
SPEAK...AND ON THE WARM SIDE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.
FINE TUNING WILL BE NEEDED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES IN THIS AREA.

AFTER THURSDAY...A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW BASICALLY OVERRIDES THE
COOLER REGIME NEAR THE SURFACE. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES CUT THROUGH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS REMAIN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THESE FEATURES CAUSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WON/T
RAIN THE WHOLE TIME BY ANY MEANS...BUT FRIDAY COULD BE PRETTY DAMP.
BASICALLY...LOTS OF 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THERE FOR THAT PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE IF MORE SUNSHINE CAN PREVAIL FROM TIME-TO-TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS WRAPPING AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH AND MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT
LIKELY WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOMEWHAT GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED AFT 20/14Z AS MIXING BEINGS. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AGAIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH A
WEAK CAP. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...KEPT MENTION TO A VCSH AFT
20/01Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...SAR

000
FXUS63 KLBF 200828
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD EXIT SOUTH AND EAST BY
DAYLIGHT...MID MORNING AT THE LATEST. THE RAP...HRRR AND NAM THEN
DROP A SECOND BATCH OF RAIN AND SHOWERS SOUTH OUT OF WRN SD THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTN. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD PRESUMABLY CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH A WEAKENING TREND.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW IF THE RAP AND NAM ARE CORRECT.
NEITHER INDICATE ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM 750 MB ON UP AND THE
SFC BASED NAM THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY CHART IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

WINDS INCREASE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WEST WITH H850 WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KT. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
WERE THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH INCREASE TO AROUND
30 MPH. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS BEGINS TO FILL.

TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF NAM...GEMREG AND ECM PLUS BIAS
CORRECTION FOR HIGHS AND THE 50S AND 60S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ON TUESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. A LOBE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DESPITE A MOIST PROFILE...LIFT WILL
BE VERY WEAK...MAINLY IN THE H850-H7 LAYER. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO
NEAR 50 PERCENT FOR SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY AND FROM 30-40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NCTRL WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SWRN NEBR
IN THE MORNING. REGARDING WINDS...STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST FROM
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBR...WHERE SUSTAINED WIND
WILL REACH NEAR 25KT AND GUST NEAR 35KT THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS
DUE TO DEEP MIX DOWN POTENTIAL WHERE UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST
WINDS EXTEND FROM THE SFC TO ABOVE 400 MB. THEREFORE A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF FORECAST WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK SIMILAR.
HIGHS WILL BE AFFECTED MOST BY CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS FROM 55-60
NCTRL TO NEAR 70 FAR SW.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NRN IOWA...STILL SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW SHOWERS TUES NIGHT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO
BUILD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. CLEARING SKIES IN
THE WEST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO BRING COOLER LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEST TO NEAR 45 EAST. ONLY A MINOR
CHANGE TO HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM 62-66 NCTRL TO 67-73 SOUTH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH H85
DEWPOINTS FROM 12-15C AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRESENCE
OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS ACROSS THE REGION EACH NIGHT. HIGHS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THU-FRI WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ONL-BBW-LBF BY 11Z.

AFTER 15Z...RAIN IS LIKELY TO DIP INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO
NEAR MHN...TIF AND ONL AS A STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EMBEDDED IN THE
RAIN AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004-022-023-035-056>058.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CDC

000
FXUS63 KOAX 200823
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE NEB AND ERN SD WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
BROAD Q-G FORCING FOR ASCENT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND NE NEB EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD CONT IN NE NEB WITH MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA DRY THIS MORNING. SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER
THIS AREA OF THE CWA /SW IA AND SE NEB/ THAT WILL STEEPING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THIS AREA AND THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 400-600 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN CWA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA. SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY SEEMS
UNLIKELY...BUT WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
SHEAR SOME HAIL SEEMS POSSIBLE IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN TAKE
PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE THE SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE SETUP FOR TUESDAY ISN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON
TSRA AS THE LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE GETS DISPLACED TO THE
EAST AS CAA MOVES THROUGH THE FA BEHIND A SFC CDFNT ON MON NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR TUE/WED. WE MAY
SEE AN ISO SHOWER IN THE NRN FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...BUT
THESE WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED.

THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT EAST ON THU WITH DRY WEATHER
RETURNING...BUT THIS WILL ONLY BE FOR A SHORT TIME AS LONGER RANGE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN A TROUGH TO THE
WESTERN US WITH WAA TYPE PRECIP DEVELOPING STARTING ON FRI AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE RETURN FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AS WELL.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

AN UPPER LOW FM NCNTRL NEBR INTO WRN SD WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND CIGS AT TIMES AROUND 1-2K FT AGL WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
SYSTEM TONIGHT...PROBABLY MAINLY JUST IMPACTING KOFK. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARED SURFACE WINDS ROTATING AROUND SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR TOWARD LNK AND OMA. HOWEVER...IF WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SOME FOG COULD FORM LATER
TONIGHT AT THOSE SITES. HEATING ON MONDAY COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. COVERAGE OF TSTMS MON AFTN
WAS UNCERTAIN AND ONLY A PROB30 IN SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED IN 06Z
FORECAST.

CHERMOK

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLBF 200702 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
202 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. H5 RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. H5 WAVE UNDERNEATH
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
TODAY. THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS SHOW H850 MB WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 45 KT AND THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THIS IN LINE WITH KUDX VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWING 40
TO 50 KT AT 07Z. MERRIMAN PROFILER IS OUT OF SERVICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEBRASKA TONIGHT TO SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA MONDAY. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...WHERE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT RESIDES. H85 WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE CONSIDERABLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MONDAY...WITH SPEEDS AT THE SFC NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLOW EXIT OF UPPER LOW FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. RAINSHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME WHAT
COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER. HYDROLOGY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AND WILL HAVE TO WATCHED. LOWS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTHWEST. SHARP RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S AND
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ONL-BBW-LBF BY 11Z.

AFTER 15Z...RAIN IS LIKELY TO DIP INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO
NEAR MHN...TIF AND ONL AS A STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EMBEDDED IN THE
RAIN AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ISSUED SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KEITH AND SOUTHERN GARDEN
COUNTIES AS UPPER LOW KEEPS A NARROW BAND OF RAIN OVER THE
COUNTIES WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM THUNDERSTORMS LAST
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PULLING SLOWLY EAST. SECONDARY ROADS ARE
MUDDY AND SOME HAVE WATER CROSSING THE ROAD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004-022-023-035-056>058.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...POWER

000
FXUS63 KGID 200557
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1257 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

WE ARE MONITORING RADAR.

PLEASE SEE THE 1113 AM AFD FOR OUR MORE EXTENSIVE THINKING ON THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTATIONS.

ALOFT: AN 85 KT ULJ ON THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE WAS EJECTING ONTO THE
SRN PLAINS WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SD.

SFC: A COOL FRONT BISECTED THE FCST AREA AT 19Z /ROUGHLY JUST W OF
HWY 281/. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE E THIS EVNG...
PUTTING THE FCST AREA IN THE COOL SECTOR OF THE CUT-OFF.

NOW THRU SUNSET: DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY. SO EXPECT SCT TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE WIND PROFILE IS BECOMING UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND 0-5 KM SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS. MLCAPE
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 1500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS OF MULTICELLS. OVERALL EXPECT A DECENT AMT OF SUB-
SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

WHILE TOR WW 181 IS IN EFFECT FROM GENEVA NEB-BELOIT KS...THIS IS
MAINLY TO COVER THE INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THAT IS LIKELY TO TAKE
THE FORM OF MARGINAL 1" HAIL AND G60 MPH. AS THE STORM STRENGTHEN
THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE FURTHER E.

TNGT: TSTMS WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FCST MAY BE A LITTLE
PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUDS. EXPECT M/CLEAR TO P/CLOUDY.

MON: A DECENT START TO THE DAY BUT UPR-LVL COLD POOL WILL RESULT IN
DESTABILIZATION AND ISOLATED AFTN SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

BREEZY W WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH AFTER 10 AM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
TO THE EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MUCAPE IS LITTLE TO NOTHING. IN ADDITION
DURING THIS TIME THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL SENDS SOME WEAK LOBES OF
ENERGY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA AND EXPECT THERE TO BE CLOUDS. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH AND THE CHANCES ARE MINIMAL.
THE COOLER AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHWEST
CONUS WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN BY THURSDAY. THE FIRST
WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WEAK WAVES
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEREFORE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THERE WILL BE. IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL OF THE TIME IN EVERY LOCATION...BUT HAVE
KEPT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND THERE IS
SOME WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS WRAPPING AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH AND MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT
LIKELY WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOMEWHAT GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED AFT 20/14Z AS MIXING BEINGS. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AGAIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH A
WEAK CAP. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...KEPT MENTION TO A VCSH AFT
20/01Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SAR

000
FXUS63 KLBF 200523 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1223 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. H5 RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. H5 WAVE UNDERNEATH
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEBRASKA TONIGHT TO SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA MONDAY. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...WHERE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT RESIDES. H85 WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE CONSIDERABLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MONDAY...WITH SPEEDS AT THE SFC NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLOW EXIT OF UPPER LOW FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. RAINSHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME WHAT
COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER. HYDROLOGY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AND WILL HAVE TO WATCHED. LOWS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTHWEST. SHARP RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S AND
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ONL-BBW-LBF BY 11Z.

AFTER 15Z...RAIN IS LIKELY TO DIP INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO
NEAR MHN...TIF AND ONL AS A STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EMBEDDED IN THE
RAIN AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ISSUED SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KEITH AND SOUTHERN GARDEN
COUNTIES AS UPPER LOW KEEPS A NARROW BAND OF RAIN OVER THE
COUNTIES WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM THUNDERSTORMS LAST
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PULLING SLOWLY EAST. SECONDARY ROADS ARE
MUDDY AND SOME HAVE WATER CROSSING THE ROAD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...POWER

000
FXUS63 KOAX 200428
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

AN UPPER LOW FM NCNTRL NEBR INTO WRN SD WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND CIGS AT TIMES AROUND 1-2K FT AGL WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
SYSTEM TONIGHT...PROBABLY MAINLY JUST IMPACTING KOFK. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARED SURFACE WINDS ROTATING AROUND SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR TOWARD LNK AND OMA. HOWEVER...IF WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SOME FOG COULD FORM LATER
TONIGHT AT THOSE SITES. HEATING ON MONDAY COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. COVERAGE OF TSTMS MON AFTN
WAS UNCERTAIN AND ONLY A PROB30 IN SHOWERS WERE MENTIONED IN 06Z
FORECAST.

CHERMOK
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THEN
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SLOW MOVING H5 LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...HAVE A COUPLE OF TORNADO WATCHES IN EFFECT
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA.

THE MORNING OAX SOUNDING...WE STILL HAD AROUND 1 INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.6C/KM.  AT
H300...THERE IS AN EXTENDED 90-110KT JET FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THIS JET IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS OKLAHOMA
TODAY AND CURVE NORTHEAST TO IOWA AND MINNESOTA TONIGHT...WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM NORTHEAST KS...THEN MISSOURI TO EASTERN IOWA
AND WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  THE H5 LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WY AND SD
WITH AREAS OF VORTICITY ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE LOW THRU
THE H5 FLOW. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING IS FORECAST TO
DUMBELL...AND ROTATE INTO NEBRASKA AND THEN NORTHEAST AGAIN INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THEN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PLAINS TODAY...THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY. AT H7/H8
THESE WERE NEARLY STACKED AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SD/ND BORDER WITH LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NEB/KS
BORDER.  THE CAPPING H7 TEMPERATURES WERE WELL TO THE SOUTH IN OK
AND SOUTHERN MO AND THE BELT OF STRONGER H85 45 TO 50 KT WINDS
STRETCHED FROM TEXAS TOWARD MISSOURI.  THE SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE
EXTENDED FROM TX ACROSS OK INTO KS WITH POCKETS IN NEBRASKA.

BY THE START OF THE EVENING PERIOD...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 1000-2500J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 55KTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...THE MOST UNSTABLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 2030Z. COMPLEX SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST AND ROTATING AROUND THE H5 LOWS. WE
HAVE ONE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NOW...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER MORE WITH TIME
.THEN DRYING OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER WITH SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY ROTATING BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MID
TROPOSPHERIC LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND WILL WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

DURING THE EXTENDED AS ANOTHER CYCLONE SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE PLAINS. THIS TOO IS
A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$