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000
FXUS63 KGID 290524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THIS SERVES AS THE INITIAL DRAFT OF THIS SHIFT`S AFD.

BANDED MID-LVL CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS AND
WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT UNTIL BANDS OF -RA FORM.

TUE: WE KNOW FOR SURE THE MORNING WILL BE M/CLOUDY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
IMPROVEMENT THERE MAY BE IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE FGEN FORCING
FADE...I HAVE TO BELIEVE SKIES WILL TURN P/CLOUDY. SO WE`LL
INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT.

TONIGHT: ANVIL CIRRUS FROM MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WILL RESULT IN M/CLOUDY SKIES S OF HWY 6 AND P/CLOUDY TO THE N.

MORE LATER...


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS DEVELOPING AND LOWERING TO
6-7K FT. SOME VFR SPRINKLES OR -RA MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. E-ESE WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE: VFR MID-LEVELS CEILINGS /AND POSSIBLY SOME -RA IN THE AREA/
WILL END BY 15Z. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

TUE EVE THRU 06Z: PROBABLY VFR CIRRUS CEILINGS AROUND 20K FT FROM
TSTMS THAT SHOULD BE ON-GOING OVER NRN KS. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 290524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THIS SERVES AS THE INITIAL DRAFT OF THIS SHIFT`S AFD.

BANDED MID-LVL CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS AND
WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT UNTIL BANDS OF -RA FORM.

TUE: WE KNOW FOR SURE THE MORNING WILL BE M/CLOUDY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH
IMPROVEMENT THERE MAY BE IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE FGEN FORCING
FADE...I HAVE TO BELIEVE SKIES WILL TURN P/CLOUDY. SO WE`LL
INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT.

TONIGHT: ANVIL CIRRUS FROM MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WILL RESULT IN M/CLOUDY SKIES S OF HWY 6 AND P/CLOUDY TO THE N.

MORE LATER...


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR MID-LEVEL CEILINGS DEVELOPING AND LOWERING TO
6-7K FT. SOME VFR SPRINKLES OR -RA MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS
WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. E-ESE WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE: VFR MID-LEVELS CEILINGS /AND POSSIBLY SOME -RA IN THE AREA/
WILL END BY 15Z. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

TUE EVE THRU 06Z: PROBABLY VFR CIRRUS CEILINGS AROUND 20K FT FROM
TSTMS THAT SHOULD BE ON-GOING OVER NRN KS. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KOAX 290432
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF TAF SITES. THEN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT FL040 CAN BE EXCEPTED BETWEEN 15Z
AND 00Z WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290432
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF TAF SITES. THEN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT FL040 CAN BE EXCEPTED BETWEEN 15Z
AND 00Z WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290432
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF TAF SITES. THEN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT FL040 CAN BE EXCEPTED BETWEEN 15Z
AND 00Z WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290432
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF TAF SITES. THEN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT FL040 CAN BE EXCEPTED BETWEEN 15Z
AND 00Z WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KGID 290419
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST ISSUED A FAIRLY HEFTY UPDATE TO THRU 6 AM...MAINLY FOR
CLOUDS/POPS/WX/QPF. QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/GEM SHOW THEY
ARE MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH THE PRIOR 12Z/18Z RUNS WITH A
NARROW BAND OF FGEN-INDUCED LIGHT RAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH ON
SATELLITE... BUT THE LAST COUPLE IR IMAGES DO SHOW THE BEGINNING
FORMATION OF SOME DISCONTINUOUS BANDED CLOUD STRUCTURES FROM
CHERRY CTY SE FROM KEARNEY-HEBRON. WE DID NOTE SOME NEAR
SATURATION AROUND 700 MB ON THE 00Z UNR SOUNDING.

THE 02Z/03Z RAP AND THE 00Z HI-RES GEM DEVELOPED PRECIP TOO EARLY
/SEE THE 3 HR QPF ENDING AT 03Z/ AND THEY`RE PROBABLY TOO EARLY TO
DEVELOP PRECIP FROM 03Z-06Z. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE TREND IS
LEGIT THE TIMING IS JUST OFF. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR AND MAKE
FURTHER VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

4-PANEL FGEN PROCEDURE SHOWS SOME -EPV /WEAK INSTABILITY/ JUST
ABOVE THE FGEN. HOWEVER...IT`S DOUBTFUL THAT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. SO T HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AND HAS
ALLOWED FOR FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND DRIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM BRINGS
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST
OF THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE ONLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION AT MOST.
HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THERE TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME RULING OUT AN
INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE.

THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MORE MUCAPE AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE A LITTLE BETTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 7000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING
OBSERVED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE
TAF. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 290419
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST ISSUED A FAIRLY HEFTY UPDATE TO THRU 6 AM...MAINLY FOR
CLOUDS/POPS/WX/QPF. QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/GEM SHOW THEY
ARE MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH THE PRIOR 12Z/18Z RUNS WITH A
NARROW BAND OF FGEN-INDUCED LIGHT RAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH ON
SATELLITE... BUT THE LAST COUPLE IR IMAGES DO SHOW THE BEGINNING
FORMATION OF SOME DISCONTINUOUS BANDED CLOUD STRUCTURES FROM
CHERRY CTY SE FROM KEARNEY-HEBRON. WE DID NOTE SOME NEAR
SATURATION AROUND 700 MB ON THE 00Z UNR SOUNDING.

THE 02Z/03Z RAP AND THE 00Z HI-RES GEM DEVELOPED PRECIP TOO EARLY
/SEE THE 3 HR QPF ENDING AT 03Z/ AND THEY`RE PROBABLY TOO EARLY TO
DEVELOP PRECIP FROM 03Z-06Z. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE TREND IS
LEGIT THE TIMING IS JUST OFF. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR AND MAKE
FURTHER VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

4-PANEL FGEN PROCEDURE SHOWS SOME -EPV /WEAK INSTABILITY/ JUST
ABOVE THE FGEN. HOWEVER...IT`S DOUBTFUL THAT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. SO T HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AND HAS
ALLOWED FOR FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND DRIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM BRINGS
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST
OF THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE ONLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION AT MOST.
HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THERE TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME RULING OUT AN
INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE.

THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MORE MUCAPE AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE A LITTLE BETTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 7000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING
OBSERVED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE
TAF. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 290419
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST ISSUED A FAIRLY HEFTY UPDATE TO THRU 6 AM...MAINLY FOR
CLOUDS/POPS/WX/QPF. QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/GEM SHOW THEY
ARE MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH THE PRIOR 12Z/18Z RUNS WITH A
NARROW BAND OF FGEN-INDUCED LIGHT RAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH ON
SATELLITE... BUT THE LAST COUPLE IR IMAGES DO SHOW THE BEGINNING
FORMATION OF SOME DISCONTINUOUS BANDED CLOUD STRUCTURES FROM
CHERRY CTY SE FROM KEARNEY-HEBRON. WE DID NOTE SOME NEAR
SATURATION AROUND 700 MB ON THE 00Z UNR SOUNDING.

THE 02Z/03Z RAP AND THE 00Z HI-RES GEM DEVELOPED PRECIP TOO EARLY
/SEE THE 3 HR QPF ENDING AT 03Z/ AND THEY`RE PROBABLY TOO EARLY TO
DEVELOP PRECIP FROM 03Z-06Z. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE TREND IS
LEGIT THE TIMING IS JUST OFF. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR AND MAKE
FURTHER VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

4-PANEL FGEN PROCEDURE SHOWS SOME -EPV /WEAK INSTABILITY/ JUST
ABOVE THE FGEN. HOWEVER...IT`S DOUBTFUL THAT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. SO T HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AND HAS
ALLOWED FOR FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND DRIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM BRINGS
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST
OF THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE ONLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION AT MOST.
HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THERE TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME RULING OUT AN
INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE.

THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MORE MUCAPE AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE A LITTLE BETTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 7000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING
OBSERVED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE
TAF. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 290419
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST ISSUED A FAIRLY HEFTY UPDATE TO THRU 6 AM...MAINLY FOR
CLOUDS/POPS/WX/QPF. QUICK CHECK OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS/GEM SHOW THEY
ARE MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH THE PRIOR 12Z/18Z RUNS WITH A
NARROW BAND OF FGEN-INDUCED LIGHT RAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH ON
SATELLITE... BUT THE LAST COUPLE IR IMAGES DO SHOW THE BEGINNING
FORMATION OF SOME DISCONTINUOUS BANDED CLOUD STRUCTURES FROM
CHERRY CTY SE FROM KEARNEY-HEBRON. WE DID NOTE SOME NEAR
SATURATION AROUND 700 MB ON THE 00Z UNR SOUNDING.

THE 02Z/03Z RAP AND THE 00Z HI-RES GEM DEVELOPED PRECIP TOO EARLY
/SEE THE 3 HR QPF ENDING AT 03Z/ AND THEY`RE PROBABLY TOO EARLY TO
DEVELOP PRECIP FROM 03Z-06Z. HOWEVER...WE BELIEVE THE TREND IS
LEGIT THE TIMING IS JUST OFF. WE WILL CONT TO MONITOR AND MAKE
FURTHER VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

4-PANEL FGEN PROCEDURE SHOWS SOME -EPV /WEAK INSTABILITY/ JUST
ABOVE THE FGEN. HOWEVER...IT`S DOUBTFUL THAT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. SO T HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AND HAS
ALLOWED FOR FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND DRIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM BRINGS
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST
OF THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE ONLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION AT MOST.
HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THERE TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME RULING OUT AN
INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE.

THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MORE MUCAPE AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE A LITTLE BETTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 7000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING
OBSERVED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE
TAF. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLBF 290417 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1117 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A BKN-0VC040-070 DECK OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NWRN
KS...WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SANDHILLS. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
FOR A TIME...FROM ROUGHLY KAIA- KTIF-KBBW...FROM 09Z-15Z. STILL
EXPECT VFR IN THE RAIN AREA AND THIS FCST IS IN JEPARODY AS VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER ERN COLO...ERN WY AND WRN KS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 290417 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1117 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A BKN-0VC040-070 DECK OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NWRN
KS...WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SANDHILLS. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
FOR A TIME...FROM ROUGHLY KAIA- KTIF-KBBW...FROM 09Z-15Z. STILL
EXPECT VFR IN THE RAIN AREA AND THIS FCST IS IN JEPARODY AS VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER ERN COLO...ERN WY AND WRN KS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 282333
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
DEVELOPS A BKN-0VC040-070 DECK OF CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN NEB...WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
SANDHILLS. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME...FROM ROUGHLY KAIA-
KTIF-KBBW. STILL EXPECT VFR IN THE RAIN AREA...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED NEAR KTIF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 282333
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
DEVELOPS A BKN-0VC040-070 DECK OF CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN NEB...WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
SANDHILLS. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME...FROM ROUGHLY KAIA-
KTIF-KBBW. STILL EXPECT VFR IN THE RAIN AREA...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED NEAR KTIF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KGID 282326
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AND HAS
ALLOWED FOR FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND DRIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM BRINGS
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST
OF THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE ONLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION AT MOST.
HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THERE TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME RULING OUT AN
INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE.

THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MORE MUCAPE AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE A LITTLE BETTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 7000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING
OBSERVED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE
TAF. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 282326
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AND HAS
ALLOWED FOR FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND DRIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM BRINGS
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST
OF THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE ONLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION AT MOST.
HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THERE TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME RULING OUT AN
INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE.

THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MORE MUCAPE AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE A LITTLE BETTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 7000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT...BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING
OBSERVED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE
TAF. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 282316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL050 PREVAIL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL050 PREVAIL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL050 PREVAIL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL050 PREVAIL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KGID 281958
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
258 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AND HAS
ALLOWED FOR FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND DRIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THAT SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM BRINGS
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MOST
OF THE REST OF THE MODELS HAVE ONLY LIMITED PRECIPITATION AT MOST.
HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
THERE TO BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME RULING OUT AN
INFREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKE.

THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME MORE MUCAPE AND THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE A LITTLE BETTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES.  IN THIS
REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 80S...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES AS
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION IN UPSLOPE
FLOW...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE CONVECTION MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO SOME
DEGREE TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET AND GENERALLY OUR
SW CWA WILL BE THE BUFFER TO THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

MODELS CLOSE OFF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS KS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PCPN CONTINUING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...PCPN
CHCS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT IN FORECAST.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.  CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PCPN CHCS BUT CONFIDENCE IN PCPN IS NOT HIGH DUE
THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF WAVES.  OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE EASTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN/PUSH EASTWARD.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST AGAIN AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
ONTO THE PLAINS.  THERE ARE STILL NO CLEAR CUT CHCS FOR PCPN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KOAX 281945
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ALTHOUGH HEATING DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER ERN NEBR SHOULD DECREASE BY
EARLY EVENING...AN AREA OF A LITTLE THICKER LOW CLOUDS COULD
PERSIST THROUGH AND POSSIBLY EVEN AFTER SUNSET NEAR AND EAST OF
OMAHA. ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OVER FL030...A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTN AT ALL SITES AND THEN
THIS EVENING NEAR/E OF OMAHA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 281945
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM AS
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MODELS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
POP UP DURING AFTERNOON HEATING NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ASSIGN
POPS DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE EVENT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SAME GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BY THE GFS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. GFS MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY BE
OVERDONE AS ECMWF DRIER AND ALSO FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE
UPPER WAVE SO LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ALTHOUGH HEATING DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER ERN NEBR SHOULD DECREASE BY
EARLY EVENING...AN AREA OF A LITTLE THICKER LOW CLOUDS COULD
PERSIST THROUGH AND POSSIBLY EVEN AFTER SUNSET NEAR AND EAST OF
OMAHA. ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OVER FL030...A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTN AT ALL SITES AND THEN
THIS EVENING NEAR/E OF OMAHA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 281921
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
221 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 29/06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TO NEAR 12
KTS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF TERMINAL.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...DS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281921
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
221 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 29/06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TO NEAR 12
KTS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF TERMINAL.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...DS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281921
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
221 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 29/06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TO NEAR 12
KTS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF TERMINAL.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...DS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281921
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
221 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 29/06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TO NEAR 12
KTS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF TERMINAL.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...DS







000
FXUS63 KGID 281729
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING RISK OF PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDER LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REX BLOCK HAS ITS AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP
TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO LIE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH IS HELPING TO KEEP
DEW POINTS NOTICEABLY LOWER. JUDGING ON RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE...I WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF HI RES BIAS CORRECTED FOR
HIGHS TODAY AND NAM12BC. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE...BUT TONIGHT
COULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PLACING AT LEAST
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT
EVEN OUR NORTHEAST COULD GET IN ON SOME SPRINKLES. THUNDER IS
UNLIKELY...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET SOME
THUNDER IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE ADDITIONAL SKY COVER...I DID
RAISE LOWS A TAD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ALOFT: OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS THE MEAN PATTERN HAS BEEN A WRN USA
RIDGE/ERN USA TROF. THE MULTI-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS FROM THE EC/
GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE THIS PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU
NEXT SUN. THE LAST 3 GFS/EC/GEM/UKMET RUNS ARE ON BOARD AS WELL. SO
NW FLOW WILL CONT WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO DYNAMIC FORCING.

EFFECTS ON TEMPS/PRECIP: THIS WEEK WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS /SOME CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ WILL
ORBIT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW THIS WEEK. THIS
COMBINED WITH HEATING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE W...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DAILY
TSTM ACTIVITY W-SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH SEVERAL CYCLES OF MCS
ACTIVITY. MODEL QPF CLUSTERING CONTS TO SUGGEST THIS MCS ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK PRIMARILY FROM CO SE INTO WRN/SRN KS AND OK.

SURFACE: THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL FAR S OF ITS USUAL SUMMER
POSITION THIS WEEK...QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
BACK TO TX AND THEN BANKED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NRN PLAINS.

HAZARDS:

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: TOUGH TO GET A GOOD READ BUT IT`S LOOKING M/CLOUDY. SCATTERED
SHWRS/SPRINKLES? MAY BE ON-GOING AT DAWN AS REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGER. GFS/EC/NAM/GEM ALL FCST FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER TO WEAKEN AND MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE TO SETTLE IN. THIS
SHOULD CHOKE OFF THE SHWR ACTIVITY. I MAY HAVE OVERPLAYED THE
THUNDER IN A VERY MARGINAL SITUATION. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE TALL ENOUGH FOR MUCH ICE IN-CLOUD. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUD COVER.

WED: TEMPS PROBABLY COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS. ANOTHER M/CLOUDY DAY.
TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING FORENOON JUST SW OF THE FCST AREA.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE NRN FRINGE
OF SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD GRAZE N-CNTRL KS OR EXTREME S-CNTRL
NEB. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ON CLOUD COVER.

AT 50-50 BLEND OF THE 15Z/21Z SREF POPS GAVE ME 40-50% N AND W OF
THE TRI-CITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND SREF ARE ON THEIR OWN
WITH THIS POTENTIAL. OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ONLY YESTERDAY`S 12Z/GEM
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH LBF/OAX...THESE
POPS WERE REMOVED.

THU-SUN: CURRENTLY LOOKING DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE WITH TSTM
ACTIVITY REMAINING FAR TO THE W AND S.

ONCE WE GET BEYOND 10 DAYS /AUG 5/ THE EC/GFS/CFSV2 ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH A TROF FCST TO DEVELOP IN THE
W. THIS WILL INCREASE THE ODDS IN GETTING BENEFICIAL RAINS. WE WILL
CONT TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.

JULY: CLOSING OUT THIS MONTH WITH A COOL SPELL GUARANTEES THIS JULY
WILL GO DOWN AS COOLER THAN NORMAL. WE SAW A SUBSTANTIAL TURN-AROUND
FROM THE VERY WET JUNE. ONLY A COUPLE NARROW SWATHS WERE FORTUNATE
ENOUGH TO GET NORMAL RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WAS DRIER THAN
NORMAL...BARELY RECEIVING 50% OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 281729
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING RISK OF PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDER LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REX BLOCK HAS ITS AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP
TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO LIE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH IS HELPING TO KEEP
DEW POINTS NOTICEABLY LOWER. JUDGING ON RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE...I WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF HI RES BIAS CORRECTED FOR
HIGHS TODAY AND NAM12BC. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE...BUT TONIGHT
COULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PLACING AT LEAST
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT
EVEN OUR NORTHEAST COULD GET IN ON SOME SPRINKLES. THUNDER IS
UNLIKELY...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET SOME
THUNDER IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE ADDITIONAL SKY COVER...I DID
RAISE LOWS A TAD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ALOFT: OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS THE MEAN PATTERN HAS BEEN A WRN USA
RIDGE/ERN USA TROF. THE MULTI-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS FROM THE EC/
GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE THIS PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU
NEXT SUN. THE LAST 3 GFS/EC/GEM/UKMET RUNS ARE ON BOARD AS WELL. SO
NW FLOW WILL CONT WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO DYNAMIC FORCING.

EFFECTS ON TEMPS/PRECIP: THIS WEEK WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS /SOME CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ WILL
ORBIT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW THIS WEEK. THIS
COMBINED WITH HEATING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE W...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DAILY
TSTM ACTIVITY W-SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH SEVERAL CYCLES OF MCS
ACTIVITY. MODEL QPF CLUSTERING CONTS TO SUGGEST THIS MCS ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK PRIMARILY FROM CO SE INTO WRN/SRN KS AND OK.

SURFACE: THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL FAR S OF ITS USUAL SUMMER
POSITION THIS WEEK...QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
BACK TO TX AND THEN BANKED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NRN PLAINS.

HAZARDS:

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: TOUGH TO GET A GOOD READ BUT IT`S LOOKING M/CLOUDY. SCATTERED
SHWRS/SPRINKLES? MAY BE ON-GOING AT DAWN AS REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGER. GFS/EC/NAM/GEM ALL FCST FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER TO WEAKEN AND MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE TO SETTLE IN. THIS
SHOULD CHOKE OFF THE SHWR ACTIVITY. I MAY HAVE OVERPLAYED THE
THUNDER IN A VERY MARGINAL SITUATION. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE TALL ENOUGH FOR MUCH ICE IN-CLOUD. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUD COVER.

WED: TEMPS PROBABLY COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS. ANOTHER M/CLOUDY DAY.
TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING FORENOON JUST SW OF THE FCST AREA.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE NRN FRINGE
OF SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD GRAZE N-CNTRL KS OR EXTREME S-CNTRL
NEB. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ON CLOUD COVER.

AT 50-50 BLEND OF THE 15Z/21Z SREF POPS GAVE ME 40-50% N AND W OF
THE TRI-CITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND SREF ARE ON THEIR OWN
WITH THIS POTENTIAL. OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ONLY YESTERDAY`S 12Z/GEM
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH LBF/OAX...THESE
POPS WERE REMOVED.

THU-SUN: CURRENTLY LOOKING DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE WITH TSTM
ACTIVITY REMAINING FAR TO THE W AND S.

ONCE WE GET BEYOND 10 DAYS /AUG 5/ THE EC/GFS/CFSV2 ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH A TROF FCST TO DEVELOP IN THE
W. THIS WILL INCREASE THE ODDS IN GETTING BENEFICIAL RAINS. WE WILL
CONT TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.

JULY: CLOSING OUT THIS MONTH WITH A COOL SPELL GUARANTEES THIS JULY
WILL GO DOWN AS COOLER THAN NORMAL. WE SAW A SUBSTANTIAL TURN-AROUND
FROM THE VERY WET JUNE. ONLY A COUPLE NARROW SWATHS WERE FORTUNATE
ENOUGH TO GET NORMAL RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WAS DRIER THAN
NORMAL...BARELY RECEIVING 50% OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 281729
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING RISK OF PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDER LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REX BLOCK HAS ITS AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP
TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO LIE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH IS HELPING TO KEEP
DEW POINTS NOTICEABLY LOWER. JUDGING ON RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE...I WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF HI RES BIAS CORRECTED FOR
HIGHS TODAY AND NAM12BC. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE...BUT TONIGHT
COULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PLACING AT LEAST
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT
EVEN OUR NORTHEAST COULD GET IN ON SOME SPRINKLES. THUNDER IS
UNLIKELY...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET SOME
THUNDER IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE ADDITIONAL SKY COVER...I DID
RAISE LOWS A TAD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ALOFT: OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS THE MEAN PATTERN HAS BEEN A WRN USA
RIDGE/ERN USA TROF. THE MULTI-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS FROM THE EC/
GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE THIS PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU
NEXT SUN. THE LAST 3 GFS/EC/GEM/UKMET RUNS ARE ON BOARD AS WELL. SO
NW FLOW WILL CONT WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO DYNAMIC FORCING.

EFFECTS ON TEMPS/PRECIP: THIS WEEK WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS /SOME CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ WILL
ORBIT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW THIS WEEK. THIS
COMBINED WITH HEATING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE W...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DAILY
TSTM ACTIVITY W-SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH SEVERAL CYCLES OF MCS
ACTIVITY. MODEL QPF CLUSTERING CONTS TO SUGGEST THIS MCS ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK PRIMARILY FROM CO SE INTO WRN/SRN KS AND OK.

SURFACE: THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL FAR S OF ITS USUAL SUMMER
POSITION THIS WEEK...QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
BACK TO TX AND THEN BANKED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NRN PLAINS.

HAZARDS:

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: TOUGH TO GET A GOOD READ BUT IT`S LOOKING M/CLOUDY. SCATTERED
SHWRS/SPRINKLES? MAY BE ON-GOING AT DAWN AS REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGER. GFS/EC/NAM/GEM ALL FCST FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER TO WEAKEN AND MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE TO SETTLE IN. THIS
SHOULD CHOKE OFF THE SHWR ACTIVITY. I MAY HAVE OVERPLAYED THE
THUNDER IN A VERY MARGINAL SITUATION. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE TALL ENOUGH FOR MUCH ICE IN-CLOUD. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUD COVER.

WED: TEMPS PROBABLY COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS. ANOTHER M/CLOUDY DAY.
TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING FORENOON JUST SW OF THE FCST AREA.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE NRN FRINGE
OF SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD GRAZE N-CNTRL KS OR EXTREME S-CNTRL
NEB. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ON CLOUD COVER.

AT 50-50 BLEND OF THE 15Z/21Z SREF POPS GAVE ME 40-50% N AND W OF
THE TRI-CITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND SREF ARE ON THEIR OWN
WITH THIS POTENTIAL. OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ONLY YESTERDAY`S 12Z/GEM
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH LBF/OAX...THESE
POPS WERE REMOVED.

THU-SUN: CURRENTLY LOOKING DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE WITH TSTM
ACTIVITY REMAINING FAR TO THE W AND S.

ONCE WE GET BEYOND 10 DAYS /AUG 5/ THE EC/GFS/CFSV2 ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH A TROF FCST TO DEVELOP IN THE
W. THIS WILL INCREASE THE ODDS IN GETTING BENEFICIAL RAINS. WE WILL
CONT TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.

JULY: CLOSING OUT THIS MONTH WITH A COOL SPELL GUARANTEES THIS JULY
WILL GO DOWN AS COOLER THAN NORMAL. WE SAW A SUBSTANTIAL TURN-AROUND
FROM THE VERY WET JUNE. ONLY A COUPLE NARROW SWATHS WERE FORTUNATE
ENOUGH TO GET NORMAL RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WAS DRIER THAN
NORMAL...BARELY RECEIVING 50% OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 281729
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING RISK OF PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDER LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REX BLOCK HAS ITS AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP
TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO LIE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH IS HELPING TO KEEP
DEW POINTS NOTICEABLY LOWER. JUDGING ON RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE...I WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF HI RES BIAS CORRECTED FOR
HIGHS TODAY AND NAM12BC. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE...BUT TONIGHT
COULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PLACING AT LEAST
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT
EVEN OUR NORTHEAST COULD GET IN ON SOME SPRINKLES. THUNDER IS
UNLIKELY...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET SOME
THUNDER IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE ADDITIONAL SKY COVER...I DID
RAISE LOWS A TAD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ALOFT: OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS THE MEAN PATTERN HAS BEEN A WRN USA
RIDGE/ERN USA TROF. THE MULTI-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS FROM THE EC/
GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE THIS PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU
NEXT SUN. THE LAST 3 GFS/EC/GEM/UKMET RUNS ARE ON BOARD AS WELL. SO
NW FLOW WILL CONT WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO DYNAMIC FORCING.

EFFECTS ON TEMPS/PRECIP: THIS WEEK WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS /SOME CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ WILL
ORBIT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW THIS WEEK. THIS
COMBINED WITH HEATING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE W...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DAILY
TSTM ACTIVITY W-SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH SEVERAL CYCLES OF MCS
ACTIVITY. MODEL QPF CLUSTERING CONTS TO SUGGEST THIS MCS ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK PRIMARILY FROM CO SE INTO WRN/SRN KS AND OK.

SURFACE: THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL FAR S OF ITS USUAL SUMMER
POSITION THIS WEEK...QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
BACK TO TX AND THEN BANKED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NRN PLAINS.

HAZARDS:

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: TOUGH TO GET A GOOD READ BUT IT`S LOOKING M/CLOUDY. SCATTERED
SHWRS/SPRINKLES? MAY BE ON-GOING AT DAWN AS REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGER. GFS/EC/NAM/GEM ALL FCST FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER TO WEAKEN AND MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE TO SETTLE IN. THIS
SHOULD CHOKE OFF THE SHWR ACTIVITY. I MAY HAVE OVERPLAYED THE
THUNDER IN A VERY MARGINAL SITUATION. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE TALL ENOUGH FOR MUCH ICE IN-CLOUD. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUD COVER.

WED: TEMPS PROBABLY COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS. ANOTHER M/CLOUDY DAY.
TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING FORENOON JUST SW OF THE FCST AREA.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE NRN FRINGE
OF SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD GRAZE N-CNTRL KS OR EXTREME S-CNTRL
NEB. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ON CLOUD COVER.

AT 50-50 BLEND OF THE 15Z/21Z SREF POPS GAVE ME 40-50% N AND W OF
THE TRI-CITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND SREF ARE ON THEIR OWN
WITH THIS POTENTIAL. OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ONLY YESTERDAY`S 12Z/GEM
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH LBF/OAX...THESE
POPS WERE REMOVED.

THU-SUN: CURRENTLY LOOKING DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE WITH TSTM
ACTIVITY REMAINING FAR TO THE W AND S.

ONCE WE GET BEYOND 10 DAYS /AUG 5/ THE EC/GFS/CFSV2 ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH A TROF FCST TO DEVELOP IN THE
W. THIS WILL INCREASE THE ODDS IN GETTING BENEFICIAL RAINS. WE WILL
CONT TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.

JULY: CLOSING OUT THIS MONTH WITH A COOL SPELL GUARANTEES THIS JULY
WILL GO DOWN AS COOLER THAN NORMAL. WE SAW A SUBSTANTIAL TURN-AROUND
FROM THE VERY WET JUNE. ONLY A COUPLE NARROW SWATHS WERE FORTUNATE
ENOUGH TO GET NORMAL RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WAS DRIER THAN
NORMAL...BARELY RECEIVING 50% OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KLBF 281724
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST A COUPLE MINOR REVISIONS MADE TO THE FORECAST...ACCOUNTED FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO PUSHED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE AFTER 29/00Z WITH THE LATEST NAM
RUN AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHER VARIABLES
REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 29/06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TO NEAR 12
KTS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JACOBS/DS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...DS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281724
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST A COUPLE MINOR REVISIONS MADE TO THE FORECAST...ACCOUNTED FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO PUSHED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE AFTER 29/00Z WITH THE LATEST NAM
RUN AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHER VARIABLES
REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 29/06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TO NEAR 12
KTS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JACOBS/DS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...DS






000
FXUS63 KOAX 281715
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.

MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED
OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI.
A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS
TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE
WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING
IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL
THREE DAYS.

TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT
LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS
ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY
3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING
TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED
MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF
TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN
LATER FORECASTS.

THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE...
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL
CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ALTHOUGH HEATING DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER ERN NEBR SHOULD DECREASE BY
EARLY EVENING...AN AREA OF A LITTLE THICKER LOW CLOUDS COULD
PERSIST THROUGH AND POSSIBLY EVEN AFTER SUNSET NEAR AND EAST OF
OMAHA. ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OVER FL030...A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTN AT ALL SITES AND THEN
THIS EVENING NEAR/E OF OMAHA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 281715
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.

MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED
OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI.
A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS
TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE
WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING
IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL
THREE DAYS.

TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT
LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS
ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY
3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING
TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED
MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF
TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN
LATER FORECASTS.

THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE...
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL
CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ALTHOUGH HEATING DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER ERN NEBR SHOULD DECREASE BY
EARLY EVENING...AN AREA OF A LITTLE THICKER LOW CLOUDS COULD
PERSIST THROUGH AND POSSIBLY EVEN AFTER SUNSET NEAR AND EAST OF
OMAHA. ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OVER FL030...A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTN AT ALL SITES AND THEN
THIS EVENING NEAR/E OF OMAHA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 281502
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST A COUPLE MINOR REVISIONS MADE TO THE FORECAST...ACCOUNTED FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO PUSHED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE AFTER 29/00Z WITH THE LATEST NAM
RUN AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHER VARIABLES
REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KVTN
AND KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JACOBS/DS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281502
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST A COUPLE MINOR REVISIONS MADE TO THE FORECAST...ACCOUNTED FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO PUSHED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE AFTER 29/00Z WITH THE LATEST NAM
RUN AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHER VARIABLES
REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KVTN
AND KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JACOBS/DS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281502
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST A COUPLE MINOR REVISIONS MADE TO THE FORECAST...ACCOUNTED FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO PUSHED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE AFTER 29/00Z WITH THE LATEST NAM
RUN AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHER VARIABLES
REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KVTN
AND KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JACOBS/DS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281502
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST A COUPLE MINOR REVISIONS MADE TO THE FORECAST...ACCOUNTED FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO PUSHED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE AFTER 29/00Z WITH THE LATEST NAM
RUN AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHER VARIABLES
REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KVTN
AND KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JACOBS/DS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281159 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KVTN
AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281159 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KVTN
AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KOAX 281115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.

MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED
OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI.
A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS
TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE
WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING
IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL
THREE DAYS.

TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT
LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS
ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY
3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING
TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED
MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF
TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN
LATER FORECASTS.

THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE...
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL
CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KOAX 281115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.

MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED
OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI.
A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS
TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE
WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING
IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL
THREE DAYS.

TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT
LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS
ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY
3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING
TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED
MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF
TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN
LATER FORECASTS.

THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE...
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL
CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KGID 281001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING RISK OF PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDER LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REX BLOCK HAS ITS AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP
TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO LIE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH IS HELPING TO KEEP
DEW POINTS NOTICEABLY LOWER. JUDGING ON RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE...I WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF HI RES BIAS CORRECTED FOR
HIGHS TODAY AND NAM12BC. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE...BUT TONIGHT
COULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PLACING AT LEAST
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT
EVEN OUR NORTHEAST COULD GET IN ON SOME SPRINKLES. THUNDER IS
UNLIKELY...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET SOME
THUNDER IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE ADDITIONAL SKY COVER...I DID
RAISE LOWS A TAD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ALOFT: OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS THE MEAN PATTERN HAS BEEN A WRN USA
RIDGE/ERN USA TROF. THE MULTI-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS FROM THE EC/
GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE THIS PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU
NEXT SUN. THE LAST 3 GFS/EC/GEM/UKMET RUNS ARE ON BOARD AS WELL. SO
NW FLOW WILL CONT WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO DYNAMIC FORCING.

EFFECTS ON TEMPS/PRECIP: THIS WEEK WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS /SOME CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ WILL
ORBIT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW THIS WEEK. THIS
COMBINED WITH HEATING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE W...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DAILY
TSTM ACTIVITY W-SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH SEVERAL CYCLES OF MCS
ACTIVITY. MODEL QPF CLUSTERING CONTS TO SUGGEST THIS MCS ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK PRIMARILY FROM CO SE INTO WRN/SRN KS AND OK.

SURFACE: THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL FAR S OF ITS USUAL SUMMER
POSITION THIS WEEK...QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
BACK TO TX AND THEN BANKED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NRN PLAINS.

HAZARDS:

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: TOUGH TO GET A GOOD READ BUT IT`S LOOKING M/CLOUDY. SCATTERED
SHWRS/SPRINKLES? MAY BE ON-GOING AT DAWN AS REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGER. GFS/EC/NAM/GEM ALL FCST FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER TO WEAKEN AND MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE TO SETTLE IN. THIS
SHOULD CHOKE OFF THE SHWR ACTIVITY. I MAY HAVE OVERPLAYED THE
THUNDER IN A VERY MARGINAL SITUATION. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE TALL ENOUGH FOR MUCH ICE IN-CLOUD. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUD COVER.

WED: TEMPS PROBABLY COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS. ANOTHER M/CLOUDY DAY.
TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING FORENOON JUST SW OF THE FCST AREA.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE NRN FRINGE
OF SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD GRAZE N-CNTRL KS OR EXTREME S-CNTRL
NEB. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ON CLOUD COVER.

AT 50-50 BLEND OF THE 15Z/21Z SREF POPS GAVE ME 40-50% N AND W OF
THE TRI-CITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND SREF ARE ON THEIR OWN
WITH THIS POTENTIAL. OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ONLY YESTERDAY`S 12Z/GEM
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH LBF/OAX...THESE
POPS WERE REMOVED.

THU-SUN: CURRENTLY LOOKING DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE WITH TSTM
ACTIVITY REMAINING FAR TO THE W AND S.

ONCE WE GET BEYOND 10 DAYS /AUG 5/ THE EC/GFS/CFSV2 ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH A TROF FCST TO DEVELOP IN THE
W. THIS WILL INCREASE THE ODDS IN GETTING BENEFICIAL RAINS. WE WILL
CONT TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.

JULY: CLOSING OUT THIS MONTH WITH A COOL SPELL GUARANTEES THIS JULY
WILL GO DOWN AS COOLER THAN NORMAL. WE SAW A SUBSTANTIAL TURN-AROUND
FROM THE VERY WET JUNE. ONLY A COUPLE NARROW SWATHS WERE FORTUNATE
ENOUGH TO GET NORMAL RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WAS DRIER THAN
NORMAL...BARELY RECEIVING 50% OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD CAUSE SOME INCREASE OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MID-LEVELS COULD
ACTUALLY BECOME BROKEN FOR A TIME. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
SOME SPRINKLES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A NEW FM GROUP.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 281001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING RISK OF PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDER LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REX BLOCK HAS ITS AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP
TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO LIE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH IS HELPING TO KEEP
DEW POINTS NOTICEABLY LOWER. JUDGING ON RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE...I WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF HI RES BIAS CORRECTED FOR
HIGHS TODAY AND NAM12BC. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE...BUT TONIGHT
COULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PLACING AT LEAST
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT
EVEN OUR NORTHEAST COULD GET IN ON SOME SPRINKLES. THUNDER IS
UNLIKELY...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET SOME
THUNDER IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE ADDITIONAL SKY COVER...I DID
RAISE LOWS A TAD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ALOFT: OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS THE MEAN PATTERN HAS BEEN A WRN USA
RIDGE/ERN USA TROF. THE MULTI-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS FROM THE EC/
GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE THIS PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU
NEXT SUN. THE LAST 3 GFS/EC/GEM/UKMET RUNS ARE ON BOARD AS WELL. SO
NW FLOW WILL CONT WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO DYNAMIC FORCING.

EFFECTS ON TEMPS/PRECIP: THIS WEEK WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS /SOME CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ WILL
ORBIT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW THIS WEEK. THIS
COMBINED WITH HEATING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE W...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DAILY
TSTM ACTIVITY W-SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH SEVERAL CYCLES OF MCS
ACTIVITY. MODEL QPF CLUSTERING CONTS TO SUGGEST THIS MCS ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK PRIMARILY FROM CO SE INTO WRN/SRN KS AND OK.

SURFACE: THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL FAR S OF ITS USUAL SUMMER
POSITION THIS WEEK...QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
BACK TO TX AND THEN BANKED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NRN PLAINS.

HAZARDS:

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: TOUGH TO GET A GOOD READ BUT IT`S LOOKING M/CLOUDY. SCATTERED
SHWRS/SPRINKLES? MAY BE ON-GOING AT DAWN AS REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGER. GFS/EC/NAM/GEM ALL FCST FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER TO WEAKEN AND MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE TO SETTLE IN. THIS
SHOULD CHOKE OFF THE SHWR ACTIVITY. I MAY HAVE OVERPLAYED THE
THUNDER IN A VERY MARGINAL SITUATION. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE TALL ENOUGH FOR MUCH ICE IN-CLOUD. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUD COVER.

WED: TEMPS PROBABLY COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS. ANOTHER M/CLOUDY DAY.
TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING FORENOON JUST SW OF THE FCST AREA.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE NRN FRINGE
OF SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD GRAZE N-CNTRL KS OR EXTREME S-CNTRL
NEB. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ON CLOUD COVER.

AT 50-50 BLEND OF THE 15Z/21Z SREF POPS GAVE ME 40-50% N AND W OF
THE TRI-CITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND SREF ARE ON THEIR OWN
WITH THIS POTENTIAL. OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ONLY YESTERDAY`S 12Z/GEM
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH LBF/OAX...THESE
POPS WERE REMOVED.

THU-SUN: CURRENTLY LOOKING DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE WITH TSTM
ACTIVITY REMAINING FAR TO THE W AND S.

ONCE WE GET BEYOND 10 DAYS /AUG 5/ THE EC/GFS/CFSV2 ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH A TROF FCST TO DEVELOP IN THE
W. THIS WILL INCREASE THE ODDS IN GETTING BENEFICIAL RAINS. WE WILL
CONT TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.

JULY: CLOSING OUT THIS MONTH WITH A COOL SPELL GUARANTEES THIS JULY
WILL GO DOWN AS COOLER THAN NORMAL. WE SAW A SUBSTANTIAL TURN-AROUND
FROM THE VERY WET JUNE. ONLY A COUPLE NARROW SWATHS WERE FORTUNATE
ENOUGH TO GET NORMAL RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WAS DRIER THAN
NORMAL...BARELY RECEIVING 50% OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD CAUSE SOME INCREASE OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MID-LEVELS COULD
ACTUALLY BECOME BROKEN FOR A TIME. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
SOME SPRINKLES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A NEW FM GROUP.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 280839
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
339 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING RISK OF PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDER LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REX BLOCK HAS ITS AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP
TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO LIE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH IS HELPING TO KEEP
DEW POINTS NOTICEABLY LOWER. JUDGING ON RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE...I WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF HI RES BIAS CORRECTED FOR
HIGHS TODAY AND NAM12BC. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE...BUT TONIGHT
COULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PLACING AT LEAST
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT
EVEN OUR NORTHEAST COULD GET IN ON SOME SPRINKLES. THUNDER IS
UNLIKELY...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET SOME
THUNDER IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE ADDITIONAL SKY COVER...I DID
RAISE LOWS A TAD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ALOFT: OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS THE MEAN PATTERN HAS BEEN A WRN USA
RIDGE/ERN USA TROF. THE MULTI-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS FROM THE EC/
GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE THIS PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU
NEXT SUN. THE LAST 3 GFS/EC/GEM/UKMET RUNS ARE ON BOARD AS WELL. SO
NW FLOW WILL CONT WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO DYNAMIC FORCING.

EFFECTS ON TEMPS/PRECIP: THIS WEEK WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS /SOME CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ WILL
ORBIT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW THIS WEEK. THIS
COMBINED WITH HEATING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE W...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DAILY
TSTM ACTIVITY W-SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH SEVERAL CYCLES OF MCS
ACTIVITY. MODEL QPF CLUSTERING CONTS TO SUGGEST THIS MCS ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK PRIMARILY FROM CO SE INTO WRN/SRN KS AND OK.

SURFACE: THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL FAR S OF ITS USUAL SUMMER
POSITION THIS WEEK...QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
BACK TO TX AND THEN BANKED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NRN PLAINS.

HAZARDS:


THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: TOUGH TO GET A GOOD READ BUT IT`S LOOKING M/CLOUDY. SCATTERED
SHWRS/SPRINKLES? MAY BE ON-GOING AT DAWN AS REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGER. GFS/EC/NAM/GEM ALL FCST FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER TO WEAKEN AND MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE TO SETTLE IN. THIS
SHOULD CHOKE OFF THE SHWR ACTIVITY. I MAY HAVE OVERPLAYED THE
THUNDER IN A VERY MARGINAL SITUATION. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE TALL ENOUGH FOR MUCH ICE IN-CLOUD. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUD COVER.

WED: TEMPS PROBABLY COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS. ANOTHER M/CLOUDY DAY.
TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING FORENOON JUST SW OF THE FCST AREA.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE NRN FRINGE
OF SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD GRAZE N-CNTRL KS OR EXTREME S-CNTRL
NEB. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ON CLOUD COVER.

AT 50-50 BLEND OF THE 15Z/21Z SREF POPS GAVE ME 40-50% N AND W OF
THE TRI-CITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND SREF ARE ON THEIR OWN
WITH THIS POTENTIAL. OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ONLY YESTERDAY`S 12Z/GEM
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH LBF/OAX...THESE
POPS WERE REMOVED.

THU-SUN: CURRENTLY LOOKING DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE WITH TSTM
ACTIVITY REMAINING FAR TO THE W AND S.

ONCE WE GET BEYOND 10 DAYS /AUG 5/ THE EC/GFS/CFSV2 ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH A TROF FCST TO DEVELOP IN THE
W. THIS WILL INCREASE THE ODDS IN GETTING BENEFICIAL RAINS. WE WILL
CONT TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.

JULY: CLOSING OUT THIS MONTH WITH A COOL SPELL GUARANTEES THIS JULY
WILL GO DOWN AS COOLER THAN NORMAL. WE SAW A SUBSTANTIAL TURN-AROUND
FROM THE VERY WET JUNE. ONLY A COUPLE NARROW SWATHS WERE FORTUNATE
ENOUGH TO GET NORMAL RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WAS DRIER THAN
NORMAL...BARELY RECEIVING 50% OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD CAUSE SOME INCREASE OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 280839
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
339 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING RISK OF PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDER LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REX BLOCK HAS ITS AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AS A DEEP
TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO LIE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH IS HELPING TO KEEP
DEW POINTS NOTICEABLY LOWER. JUDGING ON RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE...I WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF HI RES BIAS CORRECTED FOR
HIGHS TODAY AND NAM12BC. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE...BUT TONIGHT
COULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PLACING AT LEAST
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT
EVEN OUR NORTHEAST COULD GET IN ON SOME SPRINKLES. THUNDER IS
UNLIKELY...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET SOME
THUNDER IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE ADDITIONAL SKY COVER...I DID
RAISE LOWS A TAD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

ALOFT: OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS THE MEAN PATTERN HAS BEEN A WRN USA
RIDGE/ERN USA TROF. THE MULTI-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS FROM THE EC/
GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE THIS PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU
NEXT SUN. THE LAST 3 GFS/EC/GEM/UKMET RUNS ARE ON BOARD AS WELL. SO
NW FLOW WILL CONT WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO DYNAMIC FORCING.

EFFECTS ON TEMPS/PRECIP: THIS WEEK WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS /SOME CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ WILL
ORBIT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW THIS WEEK. THIS
COMBINED WITH HEATING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO THE W...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DAILY
TSTM ACTIVITY W-SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH SEVERAL CYCLES OF MCS
ACTIVITY. MODEL QPF CLUSTERING CONTS TO SUGGEST THIS MCS ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK PRIMARILY FROM CO SE INTO WRN/SRN KS AND OK.

SURFACE: THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT WILL FAR S OF ITS USUAL SUMMER
POSITION THIS WEEK...QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
BACK TO TX AND THEN BANKED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NRN PLAINS.

HAZARDS:


THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: TOUGH TO GET A GOOD READ BUT IT`S LOOKING M/CLOUDY. SCATTERED
SHWRS/SPRINKLES? MAY BE ON-GOING AT DAWN AS REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY LINGER. GFS/EC/NAM/GEM ALL FCST FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-
700 MB LAYER TO WEAKEN AND MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE TO SETTLE IN. THIS
SHOULD CHOKE OFF THE SHWR ACTIVITY. I MAY HAVE OVERPLAYED THE
THUNDER IN A VERY MARGINAL SITUATION. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE TALL ENOUGH FOR MUCH ICE IN-CLOUD. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUD COVER.

WED: TEMPS PROBABLY COOLEST OVER N-CNTRL KS. ANOTHER M/CLOUDY DAY.
TSTM CLUSTERS WILL BE ON-GOING FORENOON JUST SW OF THE FCST AREA.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS CLOUD COVER...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE NRN FRINGE
OF SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD GRAZE N-CNTRL KS OR EXTREME S-CNTRL
NEB. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON HIGHS TEMPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ON CLOUD COVER.

AT 50-50 BLEND OF THE 15Z/21Z SREF POPS GAVE ME 40-50% N AND W OF
THE TRI-CITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND SREF ARE ON THEIR OWN
WITH THIS POTENTIAL. OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ONLY YESTERDAY`S 12Z/GEM
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH LBF/OAX...THESE
POPS WERE REMOVED.

THU-SUN: CURRENTLY LOOKING DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE WITH TSTM
ACTIVITY REMAINING FAR TO THE W AND S.

ONCE WE GET BEYOND 10 DAYS /AUG 5/ THE EC/GFS/CFSV2 ENSEMBLE MEANS
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH A TROF FCST TO DEVELOP IN THE
W. THIS WILL INCREASE THE ODDS IN GETTING BENEFICIAL RAINS. WE WILL
CONT TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.

JULY: CLOSING OUT THIS MONTH WITH A COOL SPELL GUARANTEES THIS JULY
WILL GO DOWN AS COOLER THAN NORMAL. WE SAW A SUBSTANTIAL TURN-AROUND
FROM THE VERY WET JUNE. ONLY A COUPLE NARROW SWATHS WERE FORTUNATE
ENOUGH TO GET NORMAL RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WAS DRIER THAN
NORMAL...BARELY RECEIVING 50% OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD CAUSE SOME INCREASE OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 280821
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN080 AFTER 12Z. &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER












000
FXUS63 KLBF 280821
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN080 AFTER 12Z. &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER












000
FXUS63 KLBF 280821
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN080 AFTER 12Z. &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER












000
FXUS63 KLBF 280821
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN080 AFTER 12Z. &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER












000
FXUS63 KOAX 280800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.

MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED
OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI.
A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS
TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE
WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING
IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL
THREE DAYS.

TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT
LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS
ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY
3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING
TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED
MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF
TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN
LATER FORECASTS.

THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE...
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL
CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AROUND 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD
NOT LAST LONG OR BE WIDESPREAD. THEN ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL050
AND NORTH WINDS NEAR 12KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 280606 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN080 AFTER 12Z. &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 280606 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN080 AFTER 12Z. &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 280606 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN080 AFTER 12Z. &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 280606 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN080 AFTER 12Z. &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KGID 280557
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1257 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THEREFORE THE MAIN FOCUS
IS ON TEMPERATURES.  THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NW FLOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SE FM THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND A COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH AFTN
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 80S WITH DPS IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT/MONDAY WITH COOLER
AIR BACKING INTO OUR REGION AND H85 TEMPS DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO.  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE TONIGHT AND THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
WHICH WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

HEADING INTO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS.  HAVE JUST INCREASED SKY GRIDS ATTM WITH MOISTURE
LACKING IN THE LOW LEVELS.  FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK...THE SFC
RIDGE WILL BUILDS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOR THOSE WHO PREFERRED TODAYS WEATHER OVER THE HOT/SULTRY
CONDITIONS THAT PEAKED BACK ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN THIS 6-DAY
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR YOU. IN A NUTSHELL...THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO 90+ DEGREE HIGHS FORECAST ANYWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST DAYS PROGGED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOW-MID 80S
NORTH TO MID-UPPER 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE MAINLY AIMED INTO
THE LOW-MID 60S MOST NIGHTS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S LIKELY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ZONES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE NET-RESULT
TEMP-WISE IS THIS 6-DAY PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/AVERAGE...ESSENTIALLY SEALING WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE A TOP-10 COOLEST JULY ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FOR
EXAMPLE...WITH SEVERAL DAYS LEFT TO GO TO DRAG THE AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT MORE...GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT IS ALREADY
SITTING ON ITS 17TH-COOLEST JULY ON RECORD OUT OF 119 YEARS.
ADDING TO THE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE NOT A FAN OF OPPRESSIVE
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY AVERAGE IN THE
MID-50S TO LOW-60S RANGE...WHICH IS PRETTY DARN COMFORTABLE BY
LATE-JULY/EARLY-AUGUST STANDARDS.

AS USUAL...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER IN THE TEMPERATURE SITUATION
THAN RAINFALL CHANCES. THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS THAT THERE ARE A
SMATTERING OF MAINLY LOW-END 20-30 POPS WITHIN VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY...WITH THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST (IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT THAT) CONCENTRATION OF
30-40 POPS WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES DURING THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND IS VOID OF ANY PRECIP-MENTION...BUT THIS MAY BE
NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THIS WAY FOR ALL AREAS...AS FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT POPS PER SOME MODELS. ON A
POSITIVE NOTE...SEVERAL MODELS AGREE THAT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE MEAGER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAKING STRONG STORMS
UNLIKELY THIS ENTIRE TIME...LET ALONE SEVERE STORMS...BARRING
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES. ON A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE NOTE...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE
AREA) LIKELY STRUGGLING TO SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE-
QUARTER INCH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN A WELL-
BELOW NORMAL MONTH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CWA WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY AUGUST. ALTHOUGH FAR FROM SLIPPING BACK
INTO A SERIOUS DROUGHT SITUATION IN THE NEAR-TERM...THE OBVIOUS
IMPACTS OF THE SURPLUS OF JUNE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FADE
AWAY.

BEFORE TAKING THINGS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS AND ADDING SOME
METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL: THE MOST BASIC THEME THOUGH OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD IS A PREVAILING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
PATTERN.

MONDAY NIGHT...ALREADY RIGHT OFF THE BAT HERE THERE IS SOME
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THE LATER NIGHT HOURS COULD BE
TRENDING TOWARD REALIZING SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MAYBE
EVEN A WEAK RUMBLE OF THUNDER. GIVEN THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION...OPTED TO TAKE A MIDDLE-GROUND
APPROACH FOR NOW AND ADD A GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
CWA-WIDE FOR LATER IN THE NIGHT...AND DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO
SEE IF A MEASURABLE POP MIGHT BE WARRANTED. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE LOCAL AREA LIES ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN A WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND AN EXPANSIVE
TROUGH THAT ENVELOPES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FROM AN ANCHORING
CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY. THE KEY
FOR ANY SPOTTY PRECIP WILL BE A ZONE OF SOMEWHAT-SUBTLE MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUCH AS EVIDENT AROUND 700 MILLIBARS AND ALSO THE
310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. MODEL-WISE...QPF FIELDS FROM THE 18Z
NAM/12Z ECMWF AND ALSO SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 12Z 4KM
WRF-NMM CERTAINLY SUPPORT THE TREND TOWARD SOME SPOTTY SHOWER
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 12Z GFS REMAINED DRY. AT
THE SURFACE...LIGHT GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SETUP DURING
THE NIGHT. TEMP-WISE...DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE...SHOULD SEE A DECENT COOL-DOWN AND MAKE LITTLE CHANGE AIMING
FROM MID-UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MEAN RIDGE AND TROUGH POSITIONS. EVEN IF WE MANAGE
TO GET THROUGH SUNRISE WITHOUT ANY SPOTTY PRECIP...THERE IS
CERTAINLY SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS ON TUESDAY MORNING IN
MOST AREAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL...AND
FOR 20-30 POPS IN MAINLY JUST THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
FOCUS FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT
20-30 POPS WITHIN MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVITY TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SLIDING EASTWARD...BUT TRENDED DOWN THESE POPS ABOUT 10
PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS. BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY 5-10 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LARGE SCALE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBO OF LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTERACTING WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
GOING ALONG AN AXIS FROM COLORADO THROUGH WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN
KS...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY ALONG THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THIS RAIN POTENTIAL...MEANING
THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH GETS IN...BUT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED IN OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES. TONED DOWN
POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL LEFT A
DECENT COVERAGE OF 30-40 POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND
A BIT LOWER AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AGAIN STATUS QUO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE LOOKING MAINLY DRY ALL AREAS...MAINTAINED SOME
VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY
AND EASTERN ZONES AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE MEAN RIDGE WEST AND MEAN TROUGH EAST. MAINLY PER THE
GFS ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT POPS TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE
FORECAST CYCLE IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. AT NIGHT...LEFT
DRY DESPITE THE GFS QPF SUGGESTING POPS MAY NEED ADDED AT A LATER
TIME.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME...AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT AT
LEAST SOUTHERN ZONES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SLIGHT POPS CONSIDERED
FOR SATURDAY. CERTAINLY PLENTY OF TIME FOR LIKELY ALTERATIONS
HERE. OTHERWISE...THE SAME LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THAT DEFINES THE
WHOLE WEEK GENERALLY REMAINS IN PLACE...HENCE RESULTING IN THE
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE
6-DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD CAUSE SOME INCREASE OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 280557
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1257 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THEREFORE THE MAIN FOCUS
IS ON TEMPERATURES.  THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NW FLOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SE FM THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND A COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH AFTN
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 80S WITH DPS IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT/MONDAY WITH COOLER
AIR BACKING INTO OUR REGION AND H85 TEMPS DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO.  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE TONIGHT AND THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
WHICH WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

HEADING INTO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS.  HAVE JUST INCREASED SKY GRIDS ATTM WITH MOISTURE
LACKING IN THE LOW LEVELS.  FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK...THE SFC
RIDGE WILL BUILDS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOR THOSE WHO PREFERRED TODAYS WEATHER OVER THE HOT/SULTRY
CONDITIONS THAT PEAKED BACK ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN THIS 6-DAY
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR YOU. IN A NUTSHELL...THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO 90+ DEGREE HIGHS FORECAST ANYWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST DAYS PROGGED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOW-MID 80S
NORTH TO MID-UPPER 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE MAINLY AIMED INTO
THE LOW-MID 60S MOST NIGHTS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S LIKELY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ZONES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE NET-RESULT
TEMP-WISE IS THIS 6-DAY PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/AVERAGE...ESSENTIALLY SEALING WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE A TOP-10 COOLEST JULY ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FOR
EXAMPLE...WITH SEVERAL DAYS LEFT TO GO TO DRAG THE AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT MORE...GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT IS ALREADY
SITTING ON ITS 17TH-COOLEST JULY ON RECORD OUT OF 119 YEARS.
ADDING TO THE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE NOT A FAN OF OPPRESSIVE
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY AVERAGE IN THE
MID-50S TO LOW-60S RANGE...WHICH IS PRETTY DARN COMFORTABLE BY
LATE-JULY/EARLY-AUGUST STANDARDS.

AS USUAL...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER IN THE TEMPERATURE SITUATION
THAN RAINFALL CHANCES. THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS THAT THERE ARE A
SMATTERING OF MAINLY LOW-END 20-30 POPS WITHIN VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY...WITH THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST (IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT THAT) CONCENTRATION OF
30-40 POPS WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES DURING THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND IS VOID OF ANY PRECIP-MENTION...BUT THIS MAY BE
NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THIS WAY FOR ALL AREAS...AS FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT POPS PER SOME MODELS. ON A
POSITIVE NOTE...SEVERAL MODELS AGREE THAT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE MEAGER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAKING STRONG STORMS
UNLIKELY THIS ENTIRE TIME...LET ALONE SEVERE STORMS...BARRING
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES. ON A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE NOTE...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE
AREA) LIKELY STRUGGLING TO SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE-
QUARTER INCH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN A WELL-
BELOW NORMAL MONTH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CWA WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY AUGUST. ALTHOUGH FAR FROM SLIPPING BACK
INTO A SERIOUS DROUGHT SITUATION IN THE NEAR-TERM...THE OBVIOUS
IMPACTS OF THE SURPLUS OF JUNE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FADE
AWAY.

BEFORE TAKING THINGS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS AND ADDING SOME
METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL: THE MOST BASIC THEME THOUGH OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD IS A PREVAILING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
PATTERN.

MONDAY NIGHT...ALREADY RIGHT OFF THE BAT HERE THERE IS SOME
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THE LATER NIGHT HOURS COULD BE
TRENDING TOWARD REALIZING SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MAYBE
EVEN A WEAK RUMBLE OF THUNDER. GIVEN THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION...OPTED TO TAKE A MIDDLE-GROUND
APPROACH FOR NOW AND ADD A GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
CWA-WIDE FOR LATER IN THE NIGHT...AND DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO
SEE IF A MEASURABLE POP MIGHT BE WARRANTED. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE LOCAL AREA LIES ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN A WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND AN EXPANSIVE
TROUGH THAT ENVELOPES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FROM AN ANCHORING
CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY. THE KEY
FOR ANY SPOTTY PRECIP WILL BE A ZONE OF SOMEWHAT-SUBTLE MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUCH AS EVIDENT AROUND 700 MILLIBARS AND ALSO THE
310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. MODEL-WISE...QPF FIELDS FROM THE 18Z
NAM/12Z ECMWF AND ALSO SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 12Z 4KM
WRF-NMM CERTAINLY SUPPORT THE TREND TOWARD SOME SPOTTY SHOWER
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 12Z GFS REMAINED DRY. AT
THE SURFACE...LIGHT GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SETUP DURING
THE NIGHT. TEMP-WISE...DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE...SHOULD SEE A DECENT COOL-DOWN AND MAKE LITTLE CHANGE AIMING
FROM MID-UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MEAN RIDGE AND TROUGH POSITIONS. EVEN IF WE MANAGE
TO GET THROUGH SUNRISE WITHOUT ANY SPOTTY PRECIP...THERE IS
CERTAINLY SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS ON TUESDAY MORNING IN
MOST AREAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL...AND
FOR 20-30 POPS IN MAINLY JUST THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
FOCUS FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT
20-30 POPS WITHIN MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVITY TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SLIDING EASTWARD...BUT TRENDED DOWN THESE POPS ABOUT 10
PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS. BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY 5-10 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LARGE SCALE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBO OF LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTERACTING WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
GOING ALONG AN AXIS FROM COLORADO THROUGH WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN
KS...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY ALONG THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THIS RAIN POTENTIAL...MEANING
THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH GETS IN...BUT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED IN OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES. TONED DOWN
POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL LEFT A
DECENT COVERAGE OF 30-40 POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND
A BIT LOWER AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AGAIN STATUS QUO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE LOOKING MAINLY DRY ALL AREAS...MAINTAINED SOME
VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY
AND EASTERN ZONES AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE MEAN RIDGE WEST AND MEAN TROUGH EAST. MAINLY PER THE
GFS ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT POPS TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE
FORECAST CYCLE IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. AT NIGHT...LEFT
DRY DESPITE THE GFS QPF SUGGESTING POPS MAY NEED ADDED AT A LATER
TIME.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME...AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT AT
LEAST SOUTHERN ZONES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SLIGHT POPS CONSIDERED
FOR SATURDAY. CERTAINLY PLENTY OF TIME FOR LIKELY ALTERATIONS
HERE. OTHERWISE...THE SAME LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THAT DEFINES THE
WHOLE WEEK GENERALLY REMAINS IN PLACE...HENCE RESULTING IN THE
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE
6-DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD CAUSE SOME INCREASE OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 280430
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY TONIGHT THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS TIME AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETS UP WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AT THIS TIME CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONFINED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE AREA.
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY RESULTS IN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY
DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AROUND 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG OR BE WIDESPREAD. THEN ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS
NEAR FL050 AND NORTH WINDS NEAR 12KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280430
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY TONIGHT THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS TIME AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETS UP WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AT THIS TIME CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONFINED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE AREA.
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY RESULTS IN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY
DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AROUND 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG OR BE WIDESPREAD. THEN ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS
NEAR FL050 AND NORTH WINDS NEAR 12KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 272342
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN070 AFTER 12Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 272342
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN070 AFTER 12Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 272342
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN070 AFTER 12Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 272342
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN070 AFTER 12Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KGID 272330
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THEREFORE THE MAIN FOCUS
IS ON TEMPERATURES.  THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NW FLOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SE FM THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND A COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH AFTN
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 80S WITH DPS IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT/MONDAY WITH COOLER
AIR BACKING INTO OUR REGION AND H85 TEMPS DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO.  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE TONIGHT AND THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
WHICH WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

HEADING INTO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS.  HAVE JUST INCREASED SKY GRIDS ATTM WITH MOISTURE
LACKING IN THE LOW LEVELS.  FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK...THE SFC
RIDGE WILL BUILDS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOR THOSE WHO PREFERRED TODAYS WEATHER OVER THE HOT/SULTRY
CONDITIONS THAT PEAKED BACK ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN THIS 6-DAY
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR YOU. IN A NUTSHELL...THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO 90+ DEGREE HIGHS FORECAST ANYWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST DAYS PROGGED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOW-MID 80S
NORTH TO MID-UPPER 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE MAINLY AIMED INTO
THE LOW-MID 60S MOST NIGHTS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S LIKELY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ZONES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE NET-RESULT
TEMP-WISE IS THIS 6-DAY PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/AVERAGE...ESSENTIALLY SEALING WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE A TOP-10 COOLEST JULY ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FOR
EXAMPLE...WITH SEVERAL DAYS LEFT TO GO TO DRAG THE AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT MORE...GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT IS ALREADY
SITTING ON ITS 17TH-COOLEST JULY ON RECORD OUT OF 119 YEARS.
ADDING TO THE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE NOT A FAN OF OPPRESSIVE
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY AVERAGE IN THE
MID-50S TO LOW-60S RANGE...WHICH IS PRETTY DARN COMFORTABLE BY
LATE-JULY/EARLY-AUGUST STANDARDS.

AS USUAL...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER IN THE TEMPERATURE SITUATION
THAN RAINFALL CHANCES. THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS THAT THERE ARE A
SMATTERING OF MAINLY LOW-END 20-30 POPS WITHIN VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY...WITH THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST (IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT THAT) CONCENTRATION OF
30-40 POPS WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES DURING THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND IS VOID OF ANY PRECIP-MENTION...BUT THIS MAY BE
NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THIS WAY FOR ALL AREAS...AS FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT POPS PER SOME MODELS. ON A
POSITIVE NOTE...SEVERAL MODELS AGREE THAT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE MEAGER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAKING STRONG STORMS
UNLIKELY THIS ENTIRE TIME...LET ALONE SEVERE STORMS...BARRING
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES. ON A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE NOTE...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE
AREA) LIKELY STRUGGLING TO SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE-
QUARTER INCH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN A WELL-
BELOW NORMAL MONTH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CWA WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY AUGUST. ALTHOUGH FAR FROM SLIPPING BACK
INTO A SERIOUS DROUGHT SITUATION IN THE NEAR-TERM...THE OBVIOUS
IMPACTS OF THE SURPLUS OF JUNE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FADE
AWAY.

BEFORE TAKING THINGS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS AND ADDING SOME
METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL: THE MOST BASIC THEME THOUGH OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD IS A PREVAILING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
PATTERN.

MONDAY NIGHT...ALREADY RIGHT OFF THE BAT HERE THERE IS SOME
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THE LATER NIGHT HOURS COULD BE
TRENDING TOWARD REALIZING SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MAYBE
EVEN A WEAK RUMBLE OF THUNDER. GIVEN THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION...OPTED TO TAKE A MIDDLE-GROUND
APPROACH FOR NOW AND ADD A GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
CWA-WIDE FOR LATER IN THE NIGHT...AND DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO
SEE IF A MEASURABLE POP MIGHT BE WARRANTED. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE LOCAL AREA LIES ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN A WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND AN EXPANSIVE
TROUGH THAT ENVELOPES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FROM AN ANCHORING
CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY. THE KEY
FOR ANY SPOTTY PRECIP WILL BE A ZONE OF SOMEWHAT-SUBTLE MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUCH AS EVIDENT AROUND 700 MILLIBARS AND ALSO THE
310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. MODEL-WISE...QPF FIELDS FROM THE 18Z
NAM/12Z ECMWF AND ALSO SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 12Z 4KM
WRF-NMM CERTAINLY SUPPORT THE TREND TOWARD SOME SPOTTY SHOWER
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 12Z GFS REMAINED DRY. AT
THE SURFACE...LIGHT GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SETUP DURING
THE NIGHT. TEMP-WISE...DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE...SHOULD SEE A DECENT COOL-DOWN AND MAKE LITTLE CHANGE AIMING
FROM MID-UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MEAN RIDGE AND TROUGH POSITIONS. EVEN IF WE MANAGE
TO GET THROUGH SUNRISE WITHOUT ANY SPOTTY PRECIP...THERE IS
CERTAINLY SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS ON TUESDAY MORNING IN
MOST AREAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL...AND
FOR 20-30 POPS IN MAINLY JUST THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
FOCUS FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT
20-30 POPS WITHIN MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVITY TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SLIDING EASTWARD...BUT TRENDED DOWN THESE POPS ABOUT 10
PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS. BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY 5-10 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LARGE SCALE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBO OF LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTERACTING WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
GOING ALONG AN AXIS FROM COLORADO THROUGH WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN
KS...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY ALONG THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THIS RAIN POTENTIAL...MEANING
THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH GETS IN...BUT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED IN OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES. TONED DOWN
POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL LEFT A
DECENT COVERAGE OF 30-40 POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND
A BIT LOWER AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AGAIN STATUS QUO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE LOOKING MAINLY DRY ALL AREAS...MAINTAINED SOME
VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY
AND EASTERN ZONES AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE MEAN RIDGE WEST AND MEAN TROUGH EAST. MAINLY PER THE
GFS ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT POPS TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE
FORECAST CYCLE IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. AT NIGHT...LEFT
DRY DESPITE THE GFS QPF SUGGESTING POPS MAY NEED ADDED AT A LATER
TIME.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME...AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT AT
LEAST SOUTHERN ZONES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SLIGHT POPS CONSIDERED
FOR SATURDAY. CERTAINLY PLENTY OF TIME FOR LIKELY ALTERATIONS
HERE. OTHERWISE...THE SAME LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THAT DEFINES THE
WHOLE WEEK GENERALLY REMAINS IN PLACE...HENCE RESULTING IN THE
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE
6-DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT NOTHING BELOW 8000FT AGL IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. A NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND...SUSTAINED AT AROUND
12KTS...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 07KTS...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 272330
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THEREFORE THE MAIN FOCUS
IS ON TEMPERATURES.  THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NW FLOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SE FM THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND A COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH AFTN
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 80S WITH DPS IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT/MONDAY WITH COOLER
AIR BACKING INTO OUR REGION AND H85 TEMPS DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO.  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE TONIGHT AND THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
WHICH WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

HEADING INTO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS.  HAVE JUST INCREASED SKY GRIDS ATTM WITH MOISTURE
LACKING IN THE LOW LEVELS.  FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK...THE SFC
RIDGE WILL BUILDS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOR THOSE WHO PREFERRED TODAYS WEATHER OVER THE HOT/SULTRY
CONDITIONS THAT PEAKED BACK ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN THIS 6-DAY
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR YOU. IN A NUTSHELL...THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO 90+ DEGREE HIGHS FORECAST ANYWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST DAYS PROGGED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOW-MID 80S
NORTH TO MID-UPPER 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE MAINLY AIMED INTO
THE LOW-MID 60S MOST NIGHTS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S LIKELY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ZONES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE NET-RESULT
TEMP-WISE IS THIS 6-DAY PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/AVERAGE...ESSENTIALLY SEALING WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE A TOP-10 COOLEST JULY ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FOR
EXAMPLE...WITH SEVERAL DAYS LEFT TO GO TO DRAG THE AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT MORE...GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT IS ALREADY
SITTING ON ITS 17TH-COOLEST JULY ON RECORD OUT OF 119 YEARS.
ADDING TO THE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE NOT A FAN OF OPPRESSIVE
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY AVERAGE IN THE
MID-50S TO LOW-60S RANGE...WHICH IS PRETTY DARN COMFORTABLE BY
LATE-JULY/EARLY-AUGUST STANDARDS.

AS USUAL...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER IN THE TEMPERATURE SITUATION
THAN RAINFALL CHANCES. THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS THAT THERE ARE A
SMATTERING OF MAINLY LOW-END 20-30 POPS WITHIN VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY...WITH THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST (IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT THAT) CONCENTRATION OF
30-40 POPS WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES DURING THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND IS VOID OF ANY PRECIP-MENTION...BUT THIS MAY BE
NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THIS WAY FOR ALL AREAS...AS FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT POPS PER SOME MODELS. ON A
POSITIVE NOTE...SEVERAL MODELS AGREE THAT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE MEAGER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAKING STRONG STORMS
UNLIKELY THIS ENTIRE TIME...LET ALONE SEVERE STORMS...BARRING
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES. ON A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE NOTE...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE
AREA) LIKELY STRUGGLING TO SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE-
QUARTER INCH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN A WELL-
BELOW NORMAL MONTH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CWA WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY AUGUST. ALTHOUGH FAR FROM SLIPPING BACK
INTO A SERIOUS DROUGHT SITUATION IN THE NEAR-TERM...THE OBVIOUS
IMPACTS OF THE SURPLUS OF JUNE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FADE
AWAY.

BEFORE TAKING THINGS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS AND ADDING SOME
METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL: THE MOST BASIC THEME THOUGH OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD IS A PREVAILING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
PATTERN.

MONDAY NIGHT...ALREADY RIGHT OFF THE BAT HERE THERE IS SOME
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THE LATER NIGHT HOURS COULD BE
TRENDING TOWARD REALIZING SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MAYBE
EVEN A WEAK RUMBLE OF THUNDER. GIVEN THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION...OPTED TO TAKE A MIDDLE-GROUND
APPROACH FOR NOW AND ADD A GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
CWA-WIDE FOR LATER IN THE NIGHT...AND DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO
SEE IF A MEASURABLE POP MIGHT BE WARRANTED. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE LOCAL AREA LIES ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN A WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND AN EXPANSIVE
TROUGH THAT ENVELOPES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FROM AN ANCHORING
CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY. THE KEY
FOR ANY SPOTTY PRECIP WILL BE A ZONE OF SOMEWHAT-SUBTLE MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUCH AS EVIDENT AROUND 700 MILLIBARS AND ALSO THE
310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. MODEL-WISE...QPF FIELDS FROM THE 18Z
NAM/12Z ECMWF AND ALSO SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 12Z 4KM
WRF-NMM CERTAINLY SUPPORT THE TREND TOWARD SOME SPOTTY SHOWER
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 12Z GFS REMAINED DRY. AT
THE SURFACE...LIGHT GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SETUP DURING
THE NIGHT. TEMP-WISE...DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE...SHOULD SEE A DECENT COOL-DOWN AND MAKE LITTLE CHANGE AIMING
FROM MID-UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MEAN RIDGE AND TROUGH POSITIONS. EVEN IF WE MANAGE
TO GET THROUGH SUNRISE WITHOUT ANY SPOTTY PRECIP...THERE IS
CERTAINLY SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS ON TUESDAY MORNING IN
MOST AREAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL...AND
FOR 20-30 POPS IN MAINLY JUST THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
FOCUS FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT
20-30 POPS WITHIN MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVITY TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SLIDING EASTWARD...BUT TRENDED DOWN THESE POPS ABOUT 10
PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS. BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY 5-10 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LARGE SCALE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBO OF LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTERACTING WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
GOING ALONG AN AXIS FROM COLORADO THROUGH WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN
KS...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY ALONG THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THIS RAIN POTENTIAL...MEANING
THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH GETS IN...BUT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED IN OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES. TONED DOWN
POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL LEFT A
DECENT COVERAGE OF 30-40 POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND
A BIT LOWER AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AGAIN STATUS QUO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE LOOKING MAINLY DRY ALL AREAS...MAINTAINED SOME
VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY
AND EASTERN ZONES AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE MEAN RIDGE WEST AND MEAN TROUGH EAST. MAINLY PER THE
GFS ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT POPS TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE
FORECAST CYCLE IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. AT NIGHT...LEFT
DRY DESPITE THE GFS QPF SUGGESTING POPS MAY NEED ADDED AT A LATER
TIME.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME...AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT AT
LEAST SOUTHERN ZONES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SLIGHT POPS CONSIDERED
FOR SATURDAY. CERTAINLY PLENTY OF TIME FOR LIKELY ALTERATIONS
HERE. OTHERWISE...THE SAME LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THAT DEFINES THE
WHOLE WEEK GENERALLY REMAINS IN PLACE...HENCE RESULTING IN THE
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE
6-DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT NOTHING BELOW 8000FT AGL IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. A NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND...SUSTAINED AT AROUND
12KTS...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 07KTS...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 272303
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
603 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY TONIGHT THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS TIME AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETS UP WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AT THIS TIME CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONFINED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE AREA.
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY RESULTS IN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY
DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10KT EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD...THEN AVERAGE ABOUT 12KT AFTER 15Z MONDAY. SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR FL050 ARE FORECAST MONDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KGID 272104
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
404 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THEREFORE THE MAIN FOCUS
IS ON TEMPERATURES.  THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NW FLOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SE FM THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND A COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH AFTN
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 80S WITH DPS IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT/MONDAY WITH COOLER
AIR BACKING INTO OUR REGION AND H85 TEMPS DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO.  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE TONIGHT AND THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
WHICH WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

HEADING INTO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS.  HAVE JUST INCREASED SKY GRIDS ATTM WITH MOISTURE
LACKING IN THE LOW LEVELS.  FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK...THE SFC
RIDGE WILL BUILDS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOR THOSE WHO PREFERRED TODAYS WEATHER OVER THE HOT/SULTRY
CONDITIONS THAT PEAKED BACK ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN THIS 6-DAY
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR YOU. IN A NUTSHELL...THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO 90+ DEGREE HIGHS FORECAST ANYWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST DAYS PROGGED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOW-MID 80S
NORTH TO MID-UPPER 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE MAINLY AIMED INTO
THE LOW-MID 60S MOST NIGHTS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S LIKELY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ZONES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE NET-RESULT
TEMP-WISE IS THIS 6-DAY PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/AVERAGE...ESSENTIALLY SEALING WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE A TOP-10 COOLEST JULY ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FOR
EXAMPLE...WITH SEVERAL DAYS LEFT TO GO TO DRAG THE AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT MORE...GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT IS ALREADY
SITTING ON ITS 17TH-COOLEST JULY ON RECORD OUT OF 119 YEARS.
ADDING TO THE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE NOT A FAN OF OPPRESSIVE
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY AVERAGE IN THE
MID-50S TO LOW-60S RANGE...WHICH IS PRETTY DARN COMFORTABLE BY
LATE-JULY/EARLY-AUGUST STANDARDS.

AS USUAL...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER IN THE TEMPERATURE SITUATION
THAN RAINFALL CHANCES. THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS THAT THERE ARE A
SMATTERING OF MAINLY LOW-END 20-30 POPS WITHIN VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY...WITH THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST (IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT THAT) CONCENTRATION OF
30-40 POPS WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES DURING THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND IS VOID OF ANY PRECIP-MENTION...BUT THIS MAY BE
NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THIS WAY FOR ALL AREAS...AS FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT POPS PER SOME MODELS. ON A
POSITIVE NOTE...SEVERAL MODELS AGREE THAT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE MEAGER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAKING STRONG STORMS
UNLIKELY THIS ENTIRE TIME...LET ALONE SEVERE STORMS...BARRING
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES. ON A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE NOTE...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE
AREA) LIKELY STRUGGLING TO SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE-
QUARTER INCH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN A WELL-
BELOW NORMAL MONTH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CWA WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY AUGUST. ALTHOUGH FAR FROM SLIPPING BACK
INTO A SERIOUS DROUGHT SITUATION IN THE NEAR-TERM...THE OBVIOUS
IMPACTS OF THE SURPLUS OF JUNE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FADE
AWAY.

BEFORE TAKING THINGS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS AND ADDING SOME
METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL: THE MOST BASIC THEME THOUGH OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD IS A PREVAILING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
PATTERN.

MONDAY NIGHT...ALREADY RIGHT OFF THE BAT HERE THERE IS SOME
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THE LATER NIGHT HOURS COULD BE
TRENDING TOWARD REALIZING SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MAYBE
EVEN A WEAK RUMBLE OF THUNDER. GIVEN THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION...OPTED TO TAKE A MIDDLE-GROUND
APPROACH FOR NOW AND ADD A GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
CWA-WIDE FOR LATER IN THE NIGHT...AND DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO
SEE IF A MEASURABLE POP MIGHT BE WARRANTED. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE LOCAL AREA LIES ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN A WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND AN EXPANSIVE
TROUGH THAT ENVELOPES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FROM AN ANCHORING
CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY. THE KEY
FOR ANY SPOTTY PRECIP WILL BE A ZONE OF SOMEWHAT-SUBTLE MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUCH AS EVIDENT AROUND 700 MILLIBARS AND ALSO THE
310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. MODEL-WISE...QPF FIELDS FROM THE 18Z
NAM/12Z ECMWF AND ALSO SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 12Z 4KM
WRF-NMM CERTAINLY SUPPORT THE TREND TOWARD SOME SPOTTY SHOWER
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 12Z GFS REMAINED DRY. AT
THE SURFACE...LIGHT GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SETUP DURING
THE NIGHT. TEMP-WISE...DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE...SHOULD SEE A DECENT COOL-DOWN AND MAKE LITTLE CHANGE AIMING
FROM MID-UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MEAN RIDGE AND TROUGH POSITIONS. EVEN IF WE MANAGE
TO GET THROUGH SUNRISE WITHOUT ANY SPOTTY PRECIP...THERE IS
CERTAINLY SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS ON TUESDAY MORNING IN
MOST AREAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL...AND
FOR 20-30 POPS IN MAINLY JUST THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
FOCUS FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT
20-30 POPS WITHIN MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVITY TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SLIDING EASTWARD...BUT TRENDED DOWN THESE POPS ABOUT 10
PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS. BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY 5-10 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LARGE SCALE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBO OF LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTERACTING WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
GOING ALONG AN AXIS FROM COLORADO THROUGH WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN
KS...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY ALONG THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THIS RAIN POTENTIAL...MEANING
THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH GETS IN...BUT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED IN OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES. TONED DOWN
POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL LEFT A
DECENT COVERAGE OF 30-40 POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND
A BIT LOWER AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AGAIN STATUS QUO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE LOOKING MAINLY DRY ALL AREAS...MAINTAINED SOME
VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY
AND EASTERN ZONES AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE MEAN RIDGE WEST AND MEAN TROUGH EAST. MAINLY PER THE
GFS ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT POPS TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE
FORECAST CYCLE IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. AT NIGHT...LEFT
DRY DESPITE THE GFS QPF SUGGESTING POPS MAY NEED ADDED AT A LATER
TIME.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME...AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT AT
LEAST SOUTHERN ZONES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SLIGHT POPS CONSIDERED
FOR SATURDAY. CERTAINLY PLENTY OF TIME FOR LIKELY ALTERATIONS
HERE. OTHERWISE...THE SAME LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THAT DEFINES THE
WHOLE WEEK GENERALLY REMAINS IN PLACE...HENCE RESULTING IN THE
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE
6-DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLING IN. WINDS WILL BE
FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH STEADY WINDS IN THE AFTN
DECREASING TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KGID 272104
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
404 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THEREFORE THE MAIN FOCUS
IS ON TEMPERATURES.  THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED NW FLOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SE FM THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND A COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH AFTN
TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 80S WITH DPS IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT/MONDAY WITH COOLER
AIR BACKING INTO OUR REGION AND H85 TEMPS DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO.  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RIDGE TONIGHT AND THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
WHICH WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

HEADING INTO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS.  HAVE JUST INCREASED SKY GRIDS ATTM WITH MOISTURE
LACKING IN THE LOW LEVELS.  FOR THE START OF THE WORKWEEK...THE SFC
RIDGE WILL BUILDS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY.  AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FOR THOSE WHO PREFERRED TODAYS WEATHER OVER THE HOT/SULTRY
CONDITIONS THAT PEAKED BACK ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THEN THIS 6-DAY
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR YOU. IN A NUTSHELL...THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO 90+ DEGREE HIGHS FORECAST ANYWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THIS
TIME...WITH MOST DAYS PROGGED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOW-MID 80S
NORTH TO MID-UPPER 80S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE MAINLY AIMED INTO
THE LOW-MID 60S MOST NIGHTS...WITH SOME UPPER 50S LIKELY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ZONES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE NET-RESULT
TEMP-WISE IS THIS 6-DAY PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/AVERAGE...ESSENTIALLY SEALING WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE A TOP-10 COOLEST JULY ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FOR
EXAMPLE...WITH SEVERAL DAYS LEFT TO GO TO DRAG THE AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT MORE...GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT IS ALREADY
SITTING ON ITS 17TH-COOLEST JULY ON RECORD OUT OF 119 YEARS.
ADDING TO THE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE NOT A FAN OF OPPRESSIVE
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY AVERAGE IN THE
MID-50S TO LOW-60S RANGE...WHICH IS PRETTY DARN COMFORTABLE BY
LATE-JULY/EARLY-AUGUST STANDARDS.

AS USUAL...CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER IN THE TEMPERATURE SITUATION
THAN RAINFALL CHANCES. THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS THAT THERE ARE A
SMATTERING OF MAINLY LOW-END 20-30 POPS WITHIN VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY...WITH THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST (IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT THAT) CONCENTRATION OF
30-40 POPS WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES DURING THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND IS VOID OF ANY PRECIP-MENTION...BUT THIS MAY BE
NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THIS WAY FOR ALL AREAS...AS FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT POPS PER SOME MODELS. ON A
POSITIVE NOTE...SEVERAL MODELS AGREE THAT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE MEAGER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAKING STRONG STORMS
UNLIKELY THIS ENTIRE TIME...LET ALONE SEVERE STORMS...BARRING
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES. ON A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE NOTE...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE
AREA) LIKELY STRUGGLING TO SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE-
QUARTER INCH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN A WELL-
BELOW NORMAL MONTH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CWA WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY AUGUST. ALTHOUGH FAR FROM SLIPPING BACK
INTO A SERIOUS DROUGHT SITUATION IN THE NEAR-TERM...THE OBVIOUS
IMPACTS OF THE SURPLUS OF JUNE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FADE
AWAY.

BEFORE TAKING THINGS IN 12-24 HOUR BLOCKS AND ADDING SOME
METEOROLOGICAL DETAIL: THE MOST BASIC THEME THOUGH OF THIS 6-DAY
PERIOD IS A PREVAILING EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
PATTERN.

MONDAY NIGHT...ALREADY RIGHT OFF THE BAT HERE THERE IS SOME
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THE LATER NIGHT HOURS COULD BE
TRENDING TOWARD REALIZING SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MAYBE
EVEN A WEAK RUMBLE OF THUNDER. GIVEN THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS VOID OF ANY RAIN MENTION...OPTED TO TAKE A MIDDLE-GROUND
APPROACH FOR NOW AND ADD A GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
CWA-WIDE FOR LATER IN THE NIGHT...AND DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS TO
SEE IF A MEASURABLE POP MIGHT BE WARRANTED. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE LOCAL AREA LIES ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN A WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND AN EXPANSIVE
TROUGH THAT ENVELOPES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FROM AN ANCHORING
CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HUDSON BAY. THE KEY
FOR ANY SPOTTY PRECIP WILL BE A ZONE OF SOMEWHAT-SUBTLE MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUCH AS EVIDENT AROUND 700 MILLIBARS AND ALSO THE
310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. MODEL-WISE...QPF FIELDS FROM THE 18Z
NAM/12Z ECMWF AND ALSO SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 12Z 4KM
WRF-NMM CERTAINLY SUPPORT THE TREND TOWARD SOME SPOTTY SHOWER
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 12Z GFS REMAINED DRY. AT
THE SURFACE...LIGHT GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES WILL SETUP DURING
THE NIGHT. TEMP-WISE...DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE...SHOULD SEE A DECENT COOL-DOWN AND MAKE LITTLE CHANGE AIMING
FROM MID-UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MEAN RIDGE AND TROUGH POSITIONS. EVEN IF WE MANAGE
TO GET THROUGH SUNRISE WITHOUT ANY SPOTTY PRECIP...THERE IS
CERTAINLY SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS ON TUESDAY MORNING IN
MOST AREAS AS A CONTINUATION OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL...AND
FOR 20-30 POPS IN MAINLY JUST THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
FOCUS FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...KEPT
20-30 POPS WITHIN MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVITY TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SLIDING EASTWARD...BUT TRENDED DOWN THESE POPS ABOUT 10
PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS. BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY 5-10 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LARGE SCALE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COMBO OF LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTERACTING WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
GOING ALONG AN AXIS FROM COLORADO THROUGH WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN
KS...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY ALONG THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THIS RAIN POTENTIAL...MEANING
THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH GETS IN...BUT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED IN OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS ZONES. TONED DOWN
POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL LEFT A
DECENT COVERAGE OF 30-40 POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND
A BIT LOWER AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...AGAIN STATUS QUO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE LOOKING MAINLY DRY ALL AREAS...MAINTAINED SOME
VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY
AND EASTERN ZONES AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE MEAN RIDGE WEST AND MEAN TROUGH EAST. MAINLY PER THE
GFS ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT POPS TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE
FORECAST CYCLE IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. AT NIGHT...LEFT
DRY DESPITE THE GFS QPF SUGGESTING POPS MAY NEED ADDED AT A LATER
TIME.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME...AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT AT
LEAST SOUTHERN ZONES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SLIGHT POPS CONSIDERED
FOR SATURDAY. CERTAINLY PLENTY OF TIME FOR LIKELY ALTERATIONS
HERE. OTHERWISE...THE SAME LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THAT DEFINES THE
WHOLE WEEK GENERALLY REMAINS IN PLACE...HENCE RESULTING IN THE
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE
6-DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLING IN. WINDS WILL BE
FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH STEADY WINDS IN THE AFTN
DECREASING TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 271930
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
230 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY TONIGHT THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS TIME AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETS UP WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AT THIS TIME CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONFINED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE AREA.
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY RESULTS IN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY
DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 28/18Z.
CUMULUS/STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTN AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD PROVIDE AN OCCASIONAL CEILING...BUT GENERALLY ABOVE FL040 AT
TAF SITES.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 271930
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
229 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 9K FEET. OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY WIND TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JACOBS










000
FXUS63 KOAX 271930
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
230 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY TONIGHT THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS TIME AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETS UP WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AT THIS TIME CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONFINED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE AREA.
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY RESULTS IN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES BUT EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY
DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 28/18Z.
CUMULUS/STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTN AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD PROVIDE AN OCCASIONAL CEILING...BUT GENERALLY ABOVE FL040 AT
TAF SITES.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KLBF 271929
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
229 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE
SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A
BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BC NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND UPPER 50S FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH BY
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE
HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC
DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.  WITH THAT BEING
SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS OR SO 6KM BULK
SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF STORMS
FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 9K FEET. OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY WIND TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 271929
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
229 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE
SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A
BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BC NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND UPPER 50S FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH BY
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE
HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC
DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.  WITH THAT BEING
SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS OR SO 6KM BULK
SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF STORMS
FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 9K FEET. OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY WIND TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JACOBS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 271745
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES FROM KCYS TO SOUTH OF KDDC TO KMCI. STORMS
FIRING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN
IN IR. SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
KEEPING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL SEND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND REORIENT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO
AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION OF SEEING A HIGH 70 NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH AND DRY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PLAGUED BY A STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION RETREATING
BACK WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MIDWEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN UP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS PLACED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY CENTERED
OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MOST DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE LOOKING TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT COOLER AIR
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING 5-10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA /NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...IT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SO WHILE IT MAY BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD NOT HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD SO THE
WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. ALSO...WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST IT
APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN AN AREA VOID OF HAVING ANY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THAT WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM BEING PULLED TOO FAR
WEST AND STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO...MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES
WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY COULD TRACK AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 27.00Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THESE PERIODS.

ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LAST
FEW FORECAST RUNS TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN
THIS AREA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO SIT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO INCREASE THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACKS
THROUGH THE DAY AND FOCUSES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO VEER
BACK TO THE EAST AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD GET SOME
ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 9K FEET. OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY WIND TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 271745
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES FROM KCYS TO SOUTH OF KDDC TO KMCI. STORMS
FIRING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN
IN IR. SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
KEEPING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL SEND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND REORIENT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO
AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION OF SEEING A HIGH 70 NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH AND DRY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PLAGUED BY A STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION RETREATING
BACK WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MIDWEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN UP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS PLACED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY CENTERED
OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MOST DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE LOOKING TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT COOLER AIR
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING 5-10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA /NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...IT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SO WHILE IT MAY BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD NOT HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD SO THE
WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. ALSO...WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST IT
APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN AN AREA VOID OF HAVING ANY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THAT WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM BEING PULLED TOO FAR
WEST AND STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO...MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES
WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY COULD TRACK AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 27.00Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THESE PERIODS.

ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LAST
FEW FORECAST RUNS TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN
THIS AREA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO SIT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO INCREASE THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACKS
THROUGH THE DAY AND FOCUSES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO VEER
BACK TO THE EAST AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD GET SOME
ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 9K FEET. OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY WIND TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 271745
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES FROM KCYS TO SOUTH OF KDDC TO KMCI. STORMS
FIRING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN
IN IR. SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
KEEPING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL SEND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND REORIENT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO
AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION OF SEEING A HIGH 70 NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH AND DRY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PLAGUED BY A STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION RETREATING
BACK WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MIDWEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN UP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS PLACED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY CENTERED
OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MOST DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE LOOKING TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT COOLER AIR
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING 5-10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA /NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...IT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SO WHILE IT MAY BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD NOT HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD SO THE
WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. ALSO...WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST IT
APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN AN AREA VOID OF HAVING ANY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THAT WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM BEING PULLED TOO FAR
WEST AND STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO...MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES
WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY COULD TRACK AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 27.00Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THESE PERIODS.

ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LAST
FEW FORECAST RUNS TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN
THIS AREA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO SIT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO INCREASE THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACKS
THROUGH THE DAY AND FOCUSES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO VEER
BACK TO THE EAST AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD GET SOME
ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 9K FEET. OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY WIND TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 271745
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES FROM KCYS TO SOUTH OF KDDC TO KMCI. STORMS
FIRING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN
IN IR. SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
KEEPING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL SEND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND REORIENT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO
AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION OF SEEING A HIGH 70 NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH AND DRY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PLAGUED BY A STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION RETREATING
BACK WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MIDWEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN UP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS PLACED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY CENTERED
OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MOST DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE LOOKING TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT COOLER AIR
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING 5-10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA /NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...IT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SO WHILE IT MAY BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD NOT HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD SO THE
WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. ALSO...WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST IT
APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN AN AREA VOID OF HAVING ANY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THAT WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM BEING PULLED TOO FAR
WEST AND STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO...MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES
WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY COULD TRACK AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 27.00Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THESE PERIODS.

ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LAST
FEW FORECAST RUNS TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN
THIS AREA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO SIT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO INCREASE THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACKS
THROUGH THE DAY AND FOCUSES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO VEER
BACK TO THE EAST AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD GET SOME
ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 9K FEET. OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY WIND TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KOAX 271708
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1208 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...WITH
PCPN CHANCES GENERALLY 14 PERCENT OR LESS.

CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB THAT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WAS OVER THE SERN CORNER OF  AT 00Z WITH AN 80-90 KNOT JET
STREAK AT 300 MB NOTED SOUTH OF THE LOW NEAR THE PD/SD BORDER.
MAX 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 70
METERS. WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE LOW
CONTINUED TO DROP SEWD AND WAS OVER NRN MN. A LITTLE KG LUNG WAS
NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COLD POCKET. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
ROCKIES...CHANGING OUR MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM W/NW TO MORE
NW/N. THIS WILL ALLOW SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEK.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BE GUSTY FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO LATE AFTN. SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BUT BE MOSTLY
SCT. THESE WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR...THEN
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE DKTS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY MAINLY FROM 80 TO 85 AND LOWS
TONIGHT 55 TO 60.

MONDAY...SOME 850 MB MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE NERN PART OF
THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK ML CAPE IN OUR AREA BUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR WEST AND TO OUR EAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE SHALLOW...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN. WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH PCPN CHANCES OFF TO
OUR WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS BRING SOME SHOWERS OR
TSTMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT FOR
NOW THIS APPEARED TO BE TOO FAR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN
CONTROL AND THE SURFACE AND THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OR LARGE SCALE FORCING IN OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND IN THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN OUR WRN/SWRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.

THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGESTED THAT SOME LOW POPS WERE
NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO FOLLOWED THAT TREND.
00Z ECMWF ALSO HINTED AT A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN FRIDAY. PATTERN OF
A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 28/18Z.
CUMULUS/STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTN AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD PROVIDE AN OCCASIONAL CEILING...BUT GENERALLY ABOVE FL040 AT
TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 271708
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1208 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...WITH
PCPN CHANCES GENERALLY 14 PERCENT OR LESS.

CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB THAT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WAS OVER THE SERN CORNER OF  AT 00Z WITH AN 80-90 KNOT JET
STREAK AT 300 MB NOTED SOUTH OF THE LOW NEAR THE PD/SD BORDER.
MAX 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 70
METERS. WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE LOW
CONTINUED TO DROP SEWD AND WAS OVER NRN MN. A LITTLE KG LUNG WAS
NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COLD POCKET. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
ROCKIES...CHANGING OUR MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM W/NW TO MORE
NW/N. THIS WILL ALLOW SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEK.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BE GUSTY FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO LATE AFTN. SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BUT BE MOSTLY
SCT. THESE WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR...THEN
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE DKTS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY MAINLY FROM 80 TO 85 AND LOWS
TONIGHT 55 TO 60.

MONDAY...SOME 850 MB MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE NERN PART OF
THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK ML CAPE IN OUR AREA BUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR WEST AND TO OUR EAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE SHALLOW...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN. WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH PCPN CHANCES OFF TO
OUR WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS BRING SOME SHOWERS OR
TSTMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT FOR
NOW THIS APPEARED TO BE TOO FAR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN
CONTROL AND THE SURFACE AND THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OR LARGE SCALE FORCING IN OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND IN THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN OUR WRN/SWRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.

THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGESTED THAT SOME LOW POPS WERE
NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO FOLLOWED THAT TREND.
00Z ECMWF ALSO HINTED AT A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN FRIDAY. PATTERN OF
A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 28/18Z.
CUMULUS/STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTN AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD PROVIDE AN OCCASIONAL CEILING...BUT GENERALLY ABOVE FL040 AT
TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KGID 271703
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1203 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPING INTO A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST...A SURFACE HIGH HAS BUILT
IN AND CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ENSURE DRY
WEATHER. USED BCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY AS THIS USUALLY PERFORMS
BETTER THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT CLOSER TO ALLBLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WENT A BIT
LOWER WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE 80S AND SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT. A
COUPLE OF SITES IN THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN TO 3 TO 6 MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE WITH A
FEW HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS LOOKING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH CONTINUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE NM/TX BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...AND IT
LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER AT THE SFC...CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECTING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE.  DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR N TO MID 80S
IN THE SW.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES START TO ARISE IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. NOT REALLY A OBVIOUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...BUT MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. KEPT THE POPS LOW WITH NOT ALL
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THOSE CHANCES.

TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CHANCES LOOK TO START
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT TIMING...SO POPS DURING THAT TIME
ARE PRETTY LOW.

AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES TO DIVERGE THE FURTHER IN TIME WE
GO AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS FAIRLY QUIET THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AFFECTING THE CWA IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT HUDSON BAY LOW
SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN
LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...NOT MUCH
CHANGE WITH THE CWA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THE WARMEST AIR MASS WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE COOLER AIR WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...THOUGH EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD A FEW UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLING IN. WINDS WILL BE
FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH STEADY WINDS IN THE AFTN
DECREASING TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 271703
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1203 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPING INTO A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST...A SURFACE HIGH HAS BUILT
IN AND CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ENSURE DRY
WEATHER. USED BCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY AS THIS USUALLY PERFORMS
BETTER THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT CLOSER TO ALLBLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WENT A BIT
LOWER WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE 80S AND SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT. A
COUPLE OF SITES IN THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN TO 3 TO 6 MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE WITH A
FEW HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS LOOKING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH CONTINUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE NM/TX BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...AND IT
LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER AT THE SFC...CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECTING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE.  DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR N TO MID 80S
IN THE SW.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES START TO ARISE IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. NOT REALLY A OBVIOUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...BUT MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. KEPT THE POPS LOW WITH NOT ALL
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THOSE CHANCES.

TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CHANCES LOOK TO START
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT TIMING...SO POPS DURING THAT TIME
ARE PRETTY LOW.

AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES TO DIVERGE THE FURTHER IN TIME WE
GO AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS FAIRLY QUIET THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AFFECTING THE CWA IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT HUDSON BAY LOW
SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN
LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...NOT MUCH
CHANGE WITH THE CWA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THE WARMEST AIR MASS WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE COOLER AIR WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...THOUGH EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD A FEW UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
MONDAY WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLING IN. WINDS WILL BE
FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH STEADY WINDS IN THE AFTN
DECREASING TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KLBF 271141 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
641 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES FROM KCYS TO SOUTH OF KDDC TO KMCI. STORMS
FIRING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN
IN IR. SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
KEEPING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL SEND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND REORIENT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO
AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION OF SEEING A HIGH 70 NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH AND DRY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PLAGUED BY A STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION RETREATING
BACK WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MIDWEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN UP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS PLACED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY CENTERED
OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MOST DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE LOOKING TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT COOLER AIR
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING 5-10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA /NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...IT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SO WHILE IT MAY BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD NOT HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD SO THE
WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. ALSO...WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST IT
APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN AN AREA VOID OF HAVING ANY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THAT WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM BEING PULLED TOO FAR
WEST AND STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO...MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES
WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY COULD TRACK AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 27.00Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THESE PERIODS.

ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LAST
FEW FORECAST RUNS TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN
THIS AREA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO SIT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO INCREASE THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACKS
THROUGH THE DAY AND FOCUSES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO VEER
BACK TO THE EAST AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD GET SOME
ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A STORM TO THE SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MOVES TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING TO 10 TO 20MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 271141 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
641 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES FROM KCYS TO SOUTH OF KDDC TO KMCI. STORMS
FIRING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN
IN IR. SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
KEEPING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL SEND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND REORIENT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO
AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION OF SEEING A HIGH 70 NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH AND DRY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PLAGUED BY A STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION RETREATING
BACK WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MIDWEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN UP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS PLACED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY CENTERED
OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MOST DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE LOOKING TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT COOLER AIR
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING 5-10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA /NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...IT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SO WHILE IT MAY BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD NOT HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD SO THE
WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. ALSO...WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST IT
APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN AN AREA VOID OF HAVING ANY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THAT WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM BEING PULLED TOO FAR
WEST AND STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO...MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES
WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY COULD TRACK AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 27.00Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THESE PERIODS.

ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LAST
FEW FORECAST RUNS TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN
THIS AREA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO SIT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO INCREASE THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACKS
THROUGH THE DAY AND FOCUSES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO VEER
BACK TO THE EAST AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD GET SOME
ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A STORM TO THE SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MOVES TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING TO 10 TO 20MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KOAX 271126
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...WITH
PCPN CHANCES GENERALLY 14 PERCENT OR LESS.

CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB THAT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WAS OVER THE SERN CORNER OF  AT 00Z WITH AN 80-90 KNOT JET
STREAK AT 300 MB NOTED SOUTH OF THE LOW NEAR THE PD/SD BORDER.
MAX 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 70
METERS. WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE LOW
CONTINUED TO DROP SEWD AND WAS OVER NRN MN. A LITTLE KG LUNG WAS
NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COLD POCKET. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
ROCKIES...CHANGING OUR MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM W/NW TO MORE
NW/N. THIS WILL ALLOW SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEK.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BE GUSTY FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO LATE AFTN. SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BUT BE MOSTLY
SCT. THESE WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR...THEN
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE DKTS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY MAINLY FROM 80 TO 85 AND LOWS
TONIGHT 55 TO 60.

MONDAY...SOME 850 MB MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE NERN PART OF
THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK ML CAPE IN OUR AREA BUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR WEST AND TO OUR EAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE SHALLOW...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN. WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH PCPN CHANCES OFF TO
OUR WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS BRING SOME SHOWERS OR
TSTMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT FOR
NOW THIS APPEARED TO BE TOO FAR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN
CONTROL AND THE SURFACE AND THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OR LARGE SCALE FORCING IN OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND IN THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN OUR WRN/SWRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.

THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGESTED THAT SOME LOW POPS WERE
NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO FOLLOWED THAT TREND.
00Z ECMWF ALSO HINTED AT A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN FRIDAY. PATTERN OF
A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KOAX 271126
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...WITH
PCPN CHANCES GENERALLY 14 PERCENT OR LESS.

CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB THAT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WAS OVER THE SERN CORNER OF  AT 00Z WITH AN 80-90 KNOT JET
STREAK AT 300 MB NOTED SOUTH OF THE LOW NEAR THE PD/SD BORDER.
MAX 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 70
METERS. WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE LOW
CONTINUED TO DROP SEWD AND WAS OVER NRN MN. A LITTLE KG LUNG WAS
NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COLD POCKET. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
ROCKIES...CHANGING OUR MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM W/NW TO MORE
NW/N. THIS WILL ALLOW SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEK.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BE GUSTY FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO LATE AFTN. SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BUT BE MOSTLY
SCT. THESE WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR...THEN
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE DKTS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY MAINLY FROM 80 TO 85 AND LOWS
TONIGHT 55 TO 60.

MONDAY...SOME 850 MB MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE NERN PART OF
THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK ML CAPE IN OUR AREA BUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR WEST AND TO OUR EAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE SHALLOW...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN. WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH PCPN CHANCES OFF TO
OUR WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS BRING SOME SHOWERS OR
TSTMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT FOR
NOW THIS APPEARED TO BE TOO FAR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN
CONTROL AND THE SURFACE AND THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OR LARGE SCALE FORCING IN OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND IN THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN OUR WRN/SWRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.

THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGESTED THAT SOME LOW POPS WERE
NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO FOLLOWED THAT TREND.
00Z ECMWF ALSO HINTED AT A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN FRIDAY. PATTERN OF
A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KGID 271044
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
544 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPING INTO A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST...A SURFACE HIGH HAS BUILT
IN AND CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ENSURE DRY
WEATHER. USED BCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY AS THIS USUALLY PERFORMS
BETTER THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT CLOSER TO ALLBLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WENT A BIT
LOWER WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE 80S AND SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT. A
COUPLE OF SITES IN THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN TO 3 TO 6 MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE WITH A
FEW HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS LOOKING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH CONTINUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE NM/TX BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...AND IT
LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER AT THE SFC...CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECTING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE.  DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR N TO MID 80S
IN THE SW.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES START TO ARISE IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. NOT REALLY A OBVIOUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...BUT MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. KEPT THE POPS LOW WITH NOT ALL
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THOSE CHANCES.

TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CHANCES LOOK TO START
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT TIMING...SO POPS DURING THAT TIME
ARE PRETTY LOW.

AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES TO DIVERGE THE FURTHER IN TIME WE
GO AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS FAIRLY QUIET THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AFFECTING THE CWA IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT HUDSON BAY LOW
SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN
LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...NOT MUCH
CHANGE WITH THE CWA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THE WARMEST AIR MASS WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE COOLER AIR WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...THOUGH EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD A FEW UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 271044
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
544 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPING INTO A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST...A SURFACE HIGH HAS BUILT
IN AND CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ENSURE DRY
WEATHER. USED BCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY AS THIS USUALLY PERFORMS
BETTER THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT CLOSER TO ALLBLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WENT A BIT
LOWER WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE 80S AND SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT. A
COUPLE OF SITES IN THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN TO 3 TO 6 MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE WITH A
FEW HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS LOOKING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH CONTINUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE NM/TX BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...AND IT
LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER AT THE SFC...CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECTING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE.  DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR N TO MID 80S
IN THE SW.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES START TO ARISE IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. NOT REALLY A OBVIOUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...BUT MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. KEPT THE POPS LOW WITH NOT ALL
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THOSE CHANCES.

TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CHANCES LOOK TO START
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT TIMING...SO POPS DURING THAT TIME
ARE PRETTY LOW.

AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES TO DIVERGE THE FURTHER IN TIME WE
GO AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS FAIRLY QUIET THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AFFECTING THE CWA IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT HUDSON BAY LOW
SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN
LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...NOT MUCH
CHANGE WITH THE CWA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THE WARMEST AIR MASS WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE COOLER AIR WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...THOUGH EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD A FEW UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 270947
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
447 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPING INTO A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST...A SURFACE HIGH HAS BUILT
IN AND CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ENSURE DRY
WEATHER. USED BCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY AS THIS USUALLY PERFORMS
BETTER THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT CLOSER TO ALLBLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WENT A BIT
LOWER WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE 80S AND SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT. A
COUPLE OF SITES IN THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN TO 3 TO 6 MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE WITH A
FEW HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS LOOKING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH CONTINUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE NM/TX BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...AND IT
LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER AT THE SFC...CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECTING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE.  DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR N TO MID 80S
IN THE SW.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES START TO ARISE IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. NOT REALLY A OBVIOUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...BUT MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. KEPT THE POPS LOW WITH NOT ALL
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THOSE CHANCES.

TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CHANCES LOOK TO START
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT TIMING...SO POPS DURING THAT TIME
ARE PRETTY LOW.

AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES TO DIVERGE THE FURTHER IN TIME WE
GO AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS FAIRLY QUIET THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AFFECTING THE CWA IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT HUDSON BAY LOW
SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN
LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...NOT MUCH
CHANGE WITH THE CWA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THE WARMEST AIR MASS WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE COOLER AIR WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...THOUGH EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD A FEW UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 270947
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
447 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPING INTO A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST...A SURFACE HIGH HAS BUILT
IN AND CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ENSURE DRY
WEATHER. USED BCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY AS THIS USUALLY PERFORMS
BETTER THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT CLOSER TO ALLBLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WENT A BIT
LOWER WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE 80S AND SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT. A
COUPLE OF SITES IN THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN TO 3 TO 6 MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE WITH A
FEW HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS LOOKING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH CONTINUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE NM/TX BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...AND IT
LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER AT THE SFC...CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECTING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE.  DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR N TO MID 80S
IN THE SW.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES START TO ARISE IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. NOT REALLY A OBVIOUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...BUT MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. KEPT THE POPS LOW WITH NOT ALL
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THOSE CHANCES.

TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CHANCES LOOK TO START
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT TIMING...SO POPS DURING THAT TIME
ARE PRETTY LOW.

AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES TO DIVERGE THE FURTHER IN TIME WE
GO AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS FAIRLY QUIET THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AFFECTING THE CWA IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT HUDSON BAY LOW
SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN
LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...NOT MUCH
CHANGE WITH THE CWA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THE WARMEST AIR MASS WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE COOLER AIR WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...THOUGH EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD A FEW UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 270947
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
447 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPING INTO A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST...A SURFACE HIGH HAS BUILT
IN AND CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ENSURE DRY
WEATHER. USED BCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY AS THIS USUALLY PERFORMS
BETTER THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT CLOSER TO ALLBLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WENT A BIT
LOWER WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE 80S AND SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT. A
COUPLE OF SITES IN THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN TO 3 TO 6 MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE WITH A
FEW HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS LOOKING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH CONTINUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE NM/TX BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...AND IT
LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER AT THE SFC...CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECTING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE.  DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR N TO MID 80S
IN THE SW.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES START TO ARISE IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. NOT REALLY A OBVIOUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...BUT MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. KEPT THE POPS LOW WITH NOT ALL
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THOSE CHANCES.

TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CHANCES LOOK TO START
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT TIMING...SO POPS DURING THAT TIME
ARE PRETTY LOW.

AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES TO DIVERGE THE FURTHER IN TIME WE
GO AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS FAIRLY QUIET THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AFFECTING THE CWA IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT HUDSON BAY LOW
SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN
LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...NOT MUCH
CHANGE WITH THE CWA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THE WARMEST AIR MASS WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE COOLER AIR WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...THOUGH EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD A FEW UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 270947
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
447 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPING INTO A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST...A SURFACE HIGH HAS BUILT
IN AND CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ENSURE DRY
WEATHER. USED BCONSRAW FOR HIGHS TODAY AS THIS USUALLY PERFORMS
BETTER THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WENT CLOSER TO ALLBLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WENT A BIT
LOWER WITH HIGHS TODAY MAINLY IN THE 80S AND SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT. A
COUPLE OF SITES IN THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN TO 3 TO 6 MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE WITH A
FEW HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

REALLY HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE MODELS LOOKING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH CONTINUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY AND RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE NM/TX BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...AND IT
LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN PLAYER AT THE SFC...CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. EXPECTING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
IN PLACE.  DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR N TO MID 80S
IN THE SW.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES START TO ARISE IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO THE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. NOT REALLY A OBVIOUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...BUT MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. KEPT THE POPS LOW WITH NOT ALL
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THOSE CHANCES.

TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CHANCES LOOK TO START
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT TIMING...SO POPS DURING THAT TIME
ARE PRETTY LOW.

AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS CONTINUES TO DIVERGE THE FURTHER IN TIME WE
GO AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS FAIRLY QUIET THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT...WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AFFECTING THE CWA IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT HUDSON BAY LOW
SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST REMAIN
LOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...NOT MUCH
CHANGE WITH THE CWA REMAINING IN BETWEEN THE WARMEST AIR MASS WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE COOLER AIR WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY IN THE LOWER/MID
60S...THOUGH EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD A FEW UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 270816
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
316 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES FROM KCYS TO SOUTH OF KDDC TO KMCI. STORMS
FIRING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN
IN IR. SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
KEEPING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL SEND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND REORIENT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO
AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION OF SEEING A HIGH 70 NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH AND DRY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PLAGUED BY A STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION RETREATING
BACK WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MIDWEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN UP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS PLACED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY CENTERED
OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MOST DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE LOOKING TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT COOLER AIR
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING 5-10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA /NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...IT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SO WHILE IT MAY BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD NOT HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD SO THE
WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. ALSO...WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST IT
APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN AN AREA VOID OF HAVING ANY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THAT WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM BEING PULLED TOO FAR
WEST AND STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO...MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES
WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY COULD TRACK AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 27.00Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THESE PERIODS.

ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LAST
FEW FORECAST RUNS TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN
THIS AREA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO SIT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO INCREASE THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACKS
THROUGH THE DAY AND FOCUSES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO VEER
BACK TO THE EAST AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD GET SOME
ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THE
NEXT 24 HRS. FEW-SCT250 OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ALSO MAY BE
FEW-SCT100 AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY MAINLY BELOW
12KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 34014G22KT FROM 17Z-24Z AT KVTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KOAX 270800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...WITH
PCPN CHANCES GENERALLY 14 PERCENT OR LESS.

CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB THAT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WAS OVER THE SERN CORNER OF MANITOBA AT 00Z WITH AN 80-90 KNOT
JET STREAK AT 300 MB NOTED SOUTH OF THE LOW NEAR THE ND/SD
BORDER. MAX 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE ESTIMATED AT
AROUND 70 METERS. WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT
THE LOW CONTINUED TO DROP SEWD AND WAS OVER NRN MN. A LITTLE CG
LTNG WAS NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COLD POCKET. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
ROCKIES...CHANGING OUR MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM W/NW TO MORE
NW/N. THIS WILL ALLOW SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEK.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BE GUSTY FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO LATE AFTN. SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BUT BE MOSTLY
SCT. THESE WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR...THEN
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE DKTS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY MAINLY FROM 80 TO 85 AND LOWS
TONIGHT 55 TO 60.

MONDAY...SOME 850 MB MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE NERN PART OF
THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK ML CAPE IN OUR AREA BUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR WEST AND TO OUR EAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE SHALLOW...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN. WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH PCPN CHANCES OFF TO
OUR WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS BRING SOME SHOWERS OR
TSTMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT FOR
NOW THIS APPEARED TO BE TOO FAR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN
CONTROL AND THE SURFACE AND THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OR LARGE SCALE FORCING IN OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND IN THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN OUR WRN/SWRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.

THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGESTED THAT SOME LOW POPS WERE
NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO FOLLOWED THAT TREND.
00Z ECMWF ALSO HINTED AT A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN FRIDAY. PATTERN OF
A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THEN CLEAR SKIES AND
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY 15Z THROUGH
00Z BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10KT AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 270800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...WITH
PCPN CHANCES GENERALLY 14 PERCENT OR LESS.

CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB THAT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WAS OVER THE SERN CORNER OF MANITOBA AT 00Z WITH AN 80-90 KNOT
JET STREAK AT 300 MB NOTED SOUTH OF THE LOW NEAR THE ND/SD
BORDER. MAX 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE ESTIMATED AT
AROUND 70 METERS. WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT
THE LOW CONTINUED TO DROP SEWD AND WAS OVER NRN MN. A LITTLE CG
LTNG WAS NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE COLD POCKET. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AND BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
ROCKIES...CHANGING OUR MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM W/NW TO MORE
NW/N. THIS WILL ALLOW SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
WEEK.

TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BE GUSTY FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO LATE AFTN. SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BUT BE MOSTLY
SCT. THESE WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR...THEN
DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE DKTS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY MAINLY FROM 80 TO 85 AND LOWS
TONIGHT 55 TO 60.

MONDAY...SOME 850 MB MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE NERN PART OF
THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK ML CAPE IN OUR AREA BUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR WEST AND TO OUR EAST. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE SHALLOW...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY PCPN. WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH PCPN CHANCES OFF TO
OUR WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS BRING SOME SHOWERS OR
TSTMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT FOR
NOW THIS APPEARED TO BE TOO FAR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN
CONTROL AND THE SURFACE AND THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE
WAY OR LARGE SCALE FORCING IN OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND IN THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN OUR WRN/SWRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.

THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGESTED THAT SOME LOW POPS WERE
NEEDED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO FOLLOWED THAT TREND.
00Z ECMWF ALSO HINTED AT A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN FRIDAY. PATTERN OF
A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THEN CLEAR SKIES AND
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY 15Z THROUGH
00Z BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10KT AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN




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