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000
FXUS63 KGID 180959
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
459 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A RIDGE
IS NOTED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...AND ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
EXISTS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA...AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
AXIS TRYING TO WORK INTO OUR AREA...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER
OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ONLY MAXING OUT AT AROUND 60KTS NEAR
29000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS...NORTH INTO
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AXIS. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER HOWEVER.
AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A TROUGH OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF
EASTERN COLORADO. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR
AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
RANGE...WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS BY 00Z SATURDAY...AND MORE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH OF
LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...WITH A CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE RESULTANT LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH AS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL
HELP PROMOTE A STRENGTHENING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...WITH MET/NAM AND MAV/GFS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND OF 18-24KTS...ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTS OF 25-30KTS...WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION THE STIFF WIND ACROSS OUR WEST
IN THE HWO.

SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO
THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 70S
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. CONTINUED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE A WARMER
NIGHT TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATURDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FROM AN OVERALL-PERSPECTIVE...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT TWO DISTINCT
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THE FIRST
ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT PRIMARILY CENTERED ON SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...AND THE SECOND
DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY TIME FRAME BUT ESPECIALLY
CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY-WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER SYSTEM
OBVIOUSLY CARRIES EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN THE FIRST ONE GIVEN
THAT ITS FARTHER OUT...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND CONSIST OF A NUMBER OF
LOW-AMPLITUDE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WHILE THE SECOND ONE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BARREL THROUGH IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE/MORE
DYNAMIC FASHION RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...STRONGER WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM
OVER THE WEEKEND.

IN TERMS OF FORECAST CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS...THE MAIN THING THAT
TRULY SEEMS TO STAND OUT IS THAT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR EASTER
SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE ON THE RISE AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO
HIGH- ND CHANCE 50 TO LOW-END LIKELY 60 TERRITORY...BUT FOR THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS PLEASE NOTE THIS DOES NOT NECESSARILY
EQUATE TO AN ALL-DAY RAIN OUT BY ANY MEANS...AND WE ARE STILL A
FEW DAYS AWAY FROM HAVING A HANDLE ON THE MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
MORNING VERSUS AFTERNOON POTENTIAL. SECONDLY...ANY MENTION OF
LOW-END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WAS PULLED FROM BOTH SATURDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...NOW FOCUSING SOLELY ON LATE-DAY POTENTIAL.

AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS/POTENTIAL HAZARDS DURING THIS
6-DAY TIME FRAME...THERE ARE AT LEAST A FEW PERIODS THAT COULD BE
CANDIDATES FOR APPROACHING OR MEETING WIND ADVISORY SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 30+ MPH. EARLY ON...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY
DAYTIME SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE MAINLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR SOUTHERLY SPEEDS THAT COULD FLIRT
WITH ADVISORY IF FORECAST WINDS TREND UP ANY FARTHER. THEN LATER
IN THE LONG TERM...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOUTHERLY WIND
SPEEDS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THEY ALSO COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME AN
ADVISORY CANDIDATE OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW. IN
ADDITION...A DRYLINE SETTING UP NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY COULD PROMOTE AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AS
LONG AS VEGETATIVE FUELS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FIRE GROWTH BY
THEN...BUT OF COURSE THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. LASTLY AND
OF LOWEST CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY...ALTHOUGH NOT REFLECTED IN ANY
FORECAST GRIDS YET WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS ESPECIALLY
IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT FOR A TIME IN PLACES THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL.

GETTING BACK INTO MORE METEOROLOGICAL SPECIFICS AND TAKING IT IN
24-48 HOUR BLOCKS...

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NUMBER 1 MAKES IT
INITIAL ARRIVAL. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FLOW WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE
MAIN NORTHERN/SOUTHERN JET BRANCHES...BUT THE FIRST BATCH OF LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK INTO THE LOCAL AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN PARENT WAVE STILL
HANGING BACK OVER CO/NM AT SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DAY WILL START OUT RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH...AND REMAIN SO ALL DAY IN SOUTHERN ZONES...WHILE IN
NORTHWEST AREAS A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SAG INTO THE AREA...TURNING BREEZES NORTHEASTERLY IN ITS
WAKE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ATTACHED TO A MODEST LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KS/CO BORDER. AS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES...DESPITE MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY...VARIOUS MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ANY WEAK MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE THE
CWA...BUT POSSIBLY BRUSHING PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD HOLD ANY LOCAL CONVECTION AT
BAY WELL INTO THE DAY...AND IN FACT SOME MODELS INCLUDING THE 00Z
4KM WRF-NMM SHOW LITTLE TO NOTHING HAPPENING EVEN LATER IN THE
DAY. HOWEVER...OTHERS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM STILL INSIST THAT A
LIKELY FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STORMS WILL BREAK OUT IN THE
4PM-7PM TIME FRAME WITHIN THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
HEART OF THE CWA...AND THUS THE CONTINUATION OF MODEST 30-40 POPS
TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. TURNING TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WHETHER ANYTHING HAPPENS BEFORE
THEN OR NOT...MAINLY DUE TO A MODEST NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL JET AS IT ACCELERATES INTO THE FAIRLY SHARP 850 MILLIBAR
FRONTAL ZONE. THUS HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY 60-70 POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT...BUT DID LOWER A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE KS CWA BELOW LIKELY TERRITORY AS MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOSELY TIED TO THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT FARTHER NORTH. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT A HIGH-END SEVERE
THREAT...BUT WITH THE LATEST NAM CALLING FOR GENERALLY 500-1000
J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST 25-30KT KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...COULD EASILY GET A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE...SLOW-MOVING STORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE THIS THINKING IN THE LOCAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...DESPITE THE OFFICIAL SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK STILL
SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY NOT EVEN ADVERTISING TOKEN 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES. DEPENDING ON HOW FOCUSED STORMS ARE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY COULD EVEN SEE SOME DECENT RAINS...BUT OBVIOUSLY THE
GROUND IS PRIMED TO HANDLE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WATER BEFORE HYDRO
ISSUES WOULD ARISE. TEMP-WISE...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HIGHS/LOWS...AIMING HIGHS FROM LOW 70S NORTHWEST TO LOW 80S
SOUTH...AND LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 50S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AS EARLIER MENTIONED THIS PERIOD SEEMS TO BE
TRENDING RAINIER/STORMIER...AT LEAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR
SOME PART OF THE DAY. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...THE FINAL AND
LARGEST PIECE OF THE SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL LUMBER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE MOST MODELS TRACK A FAIRLY
WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS KS IN SOME WEST-TO-EAST FASHION. ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK ESPECIALLY BY LATE-APRIL
STANDARDS...THE MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG AGAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A GENERAL UPTICK IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND MAYBE
EVEN STRONG MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE DAY
GOES ON...ESPECIALLY IN ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA...WHERE POPS WERE RAISED TO LOW-END LIKELY 60 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY FADES SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS
LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND POPS
WERE RAISED INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE IN MUCH OF THIS AREA BUT
KEPT BELOW LIKELY TERRITORY AT LEAST FOR NOW. TEMP-
WISE...CONFIDENCE IN SUNDAY HIGHS ARE SOMEWHAT LOW AS SO MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT BASED ON
A MODEL CONSENSUS NUDGED UP VALUES A FEW DEGREES BUT RANGING FROM
UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S IN KS ZONES.

MONDAY DAYTIME THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME...THIS 36-HOUR PERIOD WAS
LEFT VOID OF ANY PRECIP MENTION AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH
THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE IN FUTURE FORECASTS...AS A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF MID-UPPER RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEEKEND SYSTEM AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT...LARGER AND STRONGER ONE THAT REACH THE
WEST COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE...MONDAY COULD BE A BIT BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH...BUT
CHANGED HIGHS LITTLE WITH GENERALLY LOW 70S. MONDAY NIGHT THEN
FEATURES A PASSING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE WINDS PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS. HIGHS TUESDAY LOW-MID 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM NUMBER 2 BECOMES A
PLAYER AS WHAT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY ORGANIZED/LARGE SCALE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
STILL AN ABUNDANCE OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS
REGARDING HOW THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN...WITH THE LATEST ECMWF MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IN FACT AT LEAST 12-18 HOURS FASTER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...AND
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE WINDY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NEB/KS/CO BORDER
AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TURNS
DIRECTION MORE WESTERLY/NORTHERLY. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT IT CERTAINLY IS A
POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF MUCH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN SYSTEM NUMBER 1 HAS. AS FOR
POPS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HAVE A SMATTERING OF 20-30 POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA TUES NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WITH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEARING SOME WATCHING FOR A SURFACE-BASED SEVERE
THREAT OFF OF A NORTH- SOUTH DRYLINE. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS...BUT
LEFT POPS CAPPED AT ONLY 40 PERCENT FOR NOW. TEMP-WISE...WEDNESDAY
IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AND
HAVE UPPER 70S-LOW 80S ALL AREAS.

THURSDAY DAYTIME...KEPT MOST OF THE CWA VOID OF POPS BUT
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT 20S IN EASTERN ZONES MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM PER THE GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF
HOWEVER WOULD SUGGEST JUST DRY AND BREEZY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...POTENTIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING FAR ENOUGH TO BRING
FIRE CONCERNS INTO PLAY. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY UPPER 60S-LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PERIODIC CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID-MORNING FRIDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...INTENSIFYING TO AROUND 21KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 29KTS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~30KT JET STREAK JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE GRI AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY...BUT ANY RESULTANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE TAF. A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT GRI WILL OCCUR JUST BEYOND
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT GRI
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 180914
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
414 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A RIDGE
IS NOTED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE...AND ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
EXISTS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA...AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. DESPITE THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
AXIS TRYING TO WORK INTO OUR AREA...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER
OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ONLY MAXING OUT AT AROUND 60KTS NEAR
29000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS...NORTH INTO
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AXIS. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER HOWEVER.
AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A TROUGH OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF
EASTERN COLORADO. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR
AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
RANGE...WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS BY 00Z SATURDAY...AND MORE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGH OF
LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...WITH A CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE RESULTANT LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND SUCH AS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL
HELP PROMOTE A STRENGTHENING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...WITH MET/NAM AND MAV/GFS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND OF 18-24KTS...ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTS OF 25-30KTS...WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION THE STIFF WIND ACROSS OUR WEST
IN THE HWO.

SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO
THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 70S
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. CONTINUED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE A WARMER
NIGHT TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATURDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PERIODIC CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID-MORNING FRIDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...INTENSIFYING TO AROUND 21KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 29KTS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~30KT JET STREAK JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE GRI AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY...BUT ANY RESULTANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE TAF. A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT GRI WILL OCCUR JUST BEYOND
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT GRI
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT



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000
FXUS63 KLBF 180857
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A WEAK WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
FROM A LOW IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA...ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...THROUGH NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WAS A MINOR DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THE FRONT WITH 30-35F IN
NEBRASKA AND 25-30F IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

WARM ADVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING SOME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA THAT ARE MUCH WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY WITH
LOW TO MID 70S WELL WITHIN REACH. THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LEADING A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME PRETTY WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WIND 20 TO 30 MPH.

LATE TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA... SOME DECENT SYSTEM-RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS.
THIS CAN BE SEEN QUITE WELL ON THE 300K SURFACE AS THE LOWER
PRESSURES COME INTO THE NORTH AT A RATE OF 40MB PER 3 HOUR
INCREMENT. IT ALSO SHOWS UP WITH LOCAL PRESSURE DERIVATIVE OF ABOUT
3.5UB/S. ALSO...A CROSS SECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA GIVES
EVIDENCE OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 295-305K LAYER. IN THE
CROSS SECTION...THETA-E SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY AS WELL.  HOWEVER...
THE AIR IT ENCOUNTERS IS FAIRLY DRY AND THE SHOWERS WILL BE
ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

LOOKING AT SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. ALSO...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LINK UP WITH LOW PRESSURE
JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. THIS WILL DRAPE A COLD FRONT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
BY THE MODELS INDICATE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY FOR WHERE
THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NEEDED. THE FRONT IS
GENERALLY THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON SO THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH
BRINGS SOME LIFT OVER THE FRONT AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SO START TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES START TO
VEER TO THE EAST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...BUT THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY SO COULD CONTINUE TO GET SOME LIGHTER ACTIVITY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO EJECT
OUT OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE SLOWLY HEADED EAST. THAT
BEING SAID...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR THE FRONT TO SETUP JUST
FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST TO KEEP ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS FAIRLY LOW...THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THUNDER...ALTHOUGH
DID BACK OFF SOME AREAS TO ISOLATED MENTION STARTING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...WIND PROFILES ARE NOT SHOWING ENOUGH SHEAR
TO INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.

THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MANY AREAS AS HIGHS WILL REACH
THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM AT MID WEEK. THERE ARE CERTAINLY
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS AS THE
ECMWF/GFS/GEM/GFSENSEMBLE ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS. WHAT IS AGREED UP0N IS
THAT THE PRIMARY LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY
IMPACT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT ALSO TEMPERATURES. THERE IS
GOOD LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKING TO DEVELOP ON THE WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
FURTHER TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS OCCURRING OVER NEBRASKA...WHILE THE
GFS IS FURTHER EAST...WITH THIS SAME OUTCOME OVER MINNESOTA AND
IOWA. IF THE FRONT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...COULD
GET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO NEED TO
WATCH FOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WHEREVER THEY MAY FORM
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY DON/T
HAVE THE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO START MENTIONING THAT
POTENTIAL IN OUTLOOKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. BRISK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 15KTS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SOUTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING 25KTS SUSTAINED FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER







  [top]

000
FXUS63 KOAX 180802
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER HALF...AS WEST COAST SHORT WAVE
ENERGY INTERACTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE.

HOWEVER...BEFORE THEN TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO
SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING OVER PLAINS TODAY WILL PROVIDE
WARM ADVECTION AS NRN SECTION OF WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH BRINGS
FALLING PRESSURES OVER WRN PLAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FA...ESPECIALLY
BY AFTERNOON. THIS IN TURN SHOULD BRING AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
TO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS COULD RECOVER A
BIT TODAY...LOWERING THEM TOWARD GUIDANCE DID PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 30 PERCENT. PREV FORECAST TEMPS LOOKED
REASONABLE AND WERE SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS/MODEL GUIDANCE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COULD KICK OFF A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS
IN NWRN ZONES SATURDAY MORNING AS ANY ENERGY ON SRN SIDE OF NRN
STREAM TROUGH INTERACTS. HOWEVER...AS THAT TROUGH DEPARTS WOULD
SUSPECT BETTER CHANCES OF ANY CONVECTION WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE FEEDS
NORTH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SRN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH
REGION. BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS OF GFS/ECMWF...H85
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST THRU SAT AFTN COMPARED
TO LAST SATURDAY SO MAIN ACTION MAY WAIT FOR DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING. THUS ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A
DECREASED CHANCE MANY AREAS SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY FOCUSED AFT 06Z. BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT SERN ZONES AHEAD OF
WEAK BOUNDARY AS H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF IT.

SUNDAY BECOMES MORE TRICKY AS SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
EJECTING ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN PLAINS BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT
FA. WITH H85 TEMPS INITIALLY ANYWAY PRETTY MILD ANY BREAKS IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PROVIDE A QUICK BOOST INTO 70S WHILE AREAS
WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN COULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 60/MID 60S. IN
GENERAL FOCUSED COOLER TEMPS GENERALLY WHERE GFS/ECMWF FOCUSED QPF
AXIS ACROSS WRN ZONES AND ALSO BOOSTED POPS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY
PARTS OF THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

DEPARTING ENERGY EARLY MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SERN ZONES WITH SMALL
MOSTLY MORNING POPS MONDAY OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY MON AFTN THROUGH
TUESDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SINCE THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE AN ACTIVE
MID/LATE WEEK...REMOVED SMALL POPS WITH WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY.
BOOSTED READINGS A BIT ON WED AS THAT WILL BE SECOND DAY OF WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT THROUGH ALTHOUGH IF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD/LINGERS MUCH OF THE DAY THIS WOULD BE IN
ERROR. OTHERWISE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST/MODEL BLEND
TO TEMPS. DECENT RAIN/TSTM CHANCES RETURN IN LATE WED-THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY NEW DAY 7 PERIOD IF UPPER TROUGH CLOSES NW OF AREA
PER GFS INSTEAD OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. IN ANY
EVENT...LOOKS LIKE DECENT CHANCE MANY AREAS COULD SEE DECENT 7
DAY RAINFALL TOTALS WITH ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND+NEXT WED/THU
PERIODS.

&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY. GUSTS MAY REACH
25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY
IN THE EVENING...BUT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING. DID NOT MENTION THAT FOR NOW
BUT IT MAY BE NEED IN LATER TAFS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 180530
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KTS...WITH SOME
OF THIS WIND MIXING TO THE SURFACE...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT KICKS IN OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM AROUND 8C THIS EVENING TO 11C BY MORNING.
FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES REACHING
21C ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS AND 12C IN THE FAR EAST. GOOD MIXING
/ABOVE 700 MB WEST AND NEAR 800MB EAST/ WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WEST...AND NEAR 70 EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 500 METER
WIND SPEEDS NEARING 28 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 TO 27 MPH
AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING A WIND ADVISORY TO BE
NEEDED...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL PASS ALONG TO THE NEXT
SHIFT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS TENDS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH...KEEPING IT DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH 00Z. THE EC AND NAM TEND HAVE THE FRONT EVOLVING FASTER
AND KICKING OFF TO THE EAST OUT OF OUR CWA BEFORE INITIATION BEGINS.
TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS MODEL WITH THE EVOLVING LOW BEING STRETCHED
NORTHWARD AND REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. PRESTORM
ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THAT LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
ALSO FAVORABLE WITH 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. SUNDAY CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA
ALONG THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING US DRY UNTIL
TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENTER OUR CWA. HAVE BROUGHT
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. BRISK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 15KTS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SOUTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING 25KTS SUSTAINED FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KGID 180522
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1222 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

EXPECT A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...TO CROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER ANTICIPATED LOCALLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIODS.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COMBINED WITH LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD HELP KEEP UP
LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THIS MORNINGS UNSEASONABLY COLD
READINGS...ALBEIT STILL ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MID APRIL.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WILL ACT TO GENERATE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED A FEW DEGREES. THEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS
FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REALLY
TIGHTEN...AND FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
CONTEMPLATED A WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW...BUT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
COMING IN JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE WITH SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO OPTED FOR JUST A MENTION IN THE
HWO AND WILL LEAVE TO EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO DECIDE IF AN
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 25 MPH MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR A PRETTY WINDY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OTHER THAN WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO JUMP BACK UP ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW...AND UPPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

WEEKEND AND MID WEEK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HASNT SEEN MUCH CHANGE...MODELS
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN
PLACE NEAR THE GULF COAST AND OVER SRN CA...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LOW
SITS OVER THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS STARTS SLIDING EAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BUILD IN AS BOTH DISTURBANCES TO THE WEST
CREEP CLOSER. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH AXIS
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WITH SRLY WINDS REMAINING IN THE 15 TO
20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS.  BY 12Z SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED THROUGH THE SANDHILLS. AT THIS
POINT...ANY PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST...SO
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE.

THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS STILL LOOKING TO BE AN ACTIVE ONE...WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT BEING THE FEATURE OF INTEREST. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONT/CAN BORDER SLIDES EAST SAT...WHILE A PIECE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM IN THE
DESERT SW IS MOVING NE TOWARD THE REGION. THE PUSH FROM THE NRN
SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT FURTHER SE INTO THE
AREA...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA THAT IT WILL BE DRAPED FROM SW/NE
THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS STILL VARY A LITTLE WITH THE EXACT
DETAILS...THE NAM/SREF ARE A TOUCH FURTHER INTO THE CWA /THE
MID/SERN THIRD/...VS THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM WHICH HANG IT UP OVER THE
NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. FORECAST TIMING REMAINS A BLEND AT THIS
POINT...BUT ANY MODEL YOU LOOK AT SHOWS IT BEING A CONCERN. ADDED A
LITTLE MORE DETAIL TO TIMING OF PRECIP...TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT SAT
MORNING...AND TOTALLY REMOVED FROM 12-15Z. IF MODEL TRENDS
HOLD...DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ANYTHING PRIOR TO 18Z.  DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE BETTER CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODELS
TO OCCUR DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES THEN
IN THE EVENING POST 00Z AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES IN AND A S/SWRLY
LLJ INCREASES TO ARND 40-50KTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH INSTABILITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG /NAM SHOWING
VALUES CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG/. WHILE OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ISNT THE
GREATEST...ROUGHLY IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS /INSTABILITY TAPERS OFF SOME
OVERNIGHT/...AND HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT THAT MENTION IN THE HWO.

HAD THOUGHT 24 HRS AGO THAT FOR SUNDAY...PRECIP WOULD BE TAPERING
OFF DURING MORNING...WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RUNS HAVE CONTINUED A TREND FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF A SLOWER
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SO COULD BE MORE
PRECIP FOR YOUR EASTER. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BECAUSE IT WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW SATURDAY PLAYS
OUT...AND WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY ENDS UP. QUESTION WITH WHETHER IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY LIKE MANY
OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...WHICH COULD BE A FOCUS FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS...THOUGH THE
MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY /SHOULD/ BE JUST OFF TO THE E/SE OF THE
CWA. LOT OF DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT...FOR BOTH DAYS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...DID BUMP UP HIGHS ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD SEE BETTER MIXING WITH
GUSTY SRLY WINDS...FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NEAR ORD...TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS NC KS. SUNDAY IS COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60 TO NEAR 70.

KEPT THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK DRY...THOUGH SOME MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER EVEN INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST...CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY IN BETWEEN THIS
LATEST SYSTEM AND ANOTHER APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH A RIDGE
AXIS ONCE AGAIN SLIDING EAST ONTO AND THEN THROUGH THE PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO KEEP WINDS ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM THE
NORTH TO SERLY BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE AGAIN BECOMING
ORGANIZED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
S/SERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...AND TEMPS BY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S.

WED/THURS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE
CWA...BUT LOT OF QUESTIONS LINGER IN THIS DAY 6/7 TIMEFRAME. BY THE
TIME 12Z WED ROLLS AROUND...MODELS ARENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT
SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVING MOVED INTO THE PAC
NW REGION...WITH TROUGHING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WRN CONUS AND
SWRLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS.  THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSER TO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE THIS MAIN LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT COULD
BRING PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE CWA. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW
SIDE...UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES...FRONTAL POSITIONS
AND OTHER FEATURE DETAILS CAN BE WORKED OUT...BUT IT IS A PERIOD
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PERIODIC CLOUDS NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID-MORNING FRIDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...INTENSIFYING TO AROUND 21KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 29KTS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ~30KT JET STREAK JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE GRI AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY...BUT ANY RESULTANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE TAF. A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT GRI WILL OCCUR JUST BEYOND
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT GRI
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 180445
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER INITIALLY...THEN TRANSITIONING TO WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER REGION...WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS SECOND WAVE COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHEASTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN IA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
DEWPOINTS INITIALLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA...WEST
CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
 WILL BE DRY...BUT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL HELP
BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWEST ACROSS WESTERN  IOWA...AND A BIT HIGHER IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA... BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY EVENING. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
NEAR THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 21Z SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT PEAK HEATING WHEN A WEAK CAP
ERODES. INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT WIND SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH WEAKENING
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LOW...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANYTHING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE AREA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT KICKER TO PUSH IT OUT.
THE GFS IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF HOLDING ONTO CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS COULD BRING SOME GENEROUS RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND COULD POTENTIALLY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS. PRECIP DEFICITS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 2 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL...DESPITE THE GENEROUS RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND. HAVE COORDINATED
WITH MBRFC ON POTENTIAL RIVER FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...CONVECTIVE THREAT LINGERS INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD STILL A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE SOUTH OF I80 EARLY
MONDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THE ORIGINAL
STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN THE WESTERN US EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH COULD
AFFECT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND REINFORCING SHORT WAVE...COMBINED
WITH TYPICAL LOW LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE THROUGH AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT MID WEEK...BUT WAY TO FAR OUT
TO FIGURE OUT ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS. UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY. GUSTS MAY REACH
25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY
IN THE EVENING...BUT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING. DID NOT MENTION THAT FOR NOW
BUT IT MAY BE NEED IN LATER TAFS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 180018 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
718 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KTS...WITH SOME
OF THIS WIND MIXING TO THE SURFACE...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT KICKS IN OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM AROUND 8C THIS EVENING TO 11C BY MORNING.
FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES REACHING
21C ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS AND 12C IN THE FAR EAST. GOOD MIXING
/ABOVE 700 MB WEST AND NEAR 800MB EAST/ WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WEST...AND NEAR 70 EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 500 METER
WIND SPEEDS NEARING 28 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 TO 27 MPH
AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING A WIND ADVISORY TO BE
NEEDED...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL PASS ALONG TO THE NEXT
SHIFT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS TENDS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH...KEEPING IT DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH 00Z. THE EC AND NAM TEND HAVE THE FRONT EVOLVING FASTER
AND KICKING OFF TO THE EAST OUT OF OUR CWA BEFORE INITIATION BEGINS.
TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS MODEL WITH THE EVOLVING LOW BEING STRETCHED
NORTHWARD AND REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. PRESTORM
ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THAT LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
ALSO FAVORABLE WITH 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. SUNDAY CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA
ALONG THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING US DRY UNTIL
TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENTER OUR CWA. HAVE BROUGHT
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 CDT THU APR 17 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR MOVES EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. A LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY GUSTY FLOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 172310
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER INITIALLY...THEN TRANSITIONING TO WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER REGION...WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS SECOND WAVE COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHEASTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN IA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
DEWPOINTS INITIALLY WILL BE DRY...BUT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL HELP
BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWEST ACROSS WESTERN  IOWA...AND A BIT HIGHER IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA... BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY EVENING. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
NEAR THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 21Z SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT PEAK HEATING WHEN A WEAK CAP
ERODES. INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT WIND SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH WEAKENING
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LOW...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANYTHING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE AREA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT KICKER TO PUSH IT OUT.
THE GFS IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF HOLDING ONTO CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS COULD BRING SOME GENEROUS RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND COULD POTENTIALLY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS. PRECIP DEFICITS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 2 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL...DESPITE THE GENEROUS RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND. HAVE COORDINATED
WITH MBRFC ON POTENTIAL RIVER FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...CONVECTIVE THREAT LINGERS INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD STILL A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE SOUTH OF I80 EARLY
MONDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THE ORIGINAL
STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN THE WESTERN US EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH COULD
AFFECT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND REINFORCING SHORT WAVE...COMBINED
WITH TYPICAL LOW LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE THROUGH AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT MID WEEK...BUT WAY TO FAR OUT
TO FIGURE OUT ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS. UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY. GUSTS MAY REACH AROUND 25 KNOTS
BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KGID 172258
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
558 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

EXPECT A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...TO CROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER ANTICIPATED LOCALLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIODS.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COMBINED WITH LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD HELP KEEP UP
LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THIS MORNINGS UNSEASONABLY COLD
READINGS...ALBEIT STILL ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MID APRIL.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WILL ACT TO GENERATE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED A FEW DEGREES. THEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS
FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REALLY
TIGHTEN...AND FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
CONTEMPLATED A WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW...BUT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
COMING IN JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE WITH SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO OPTED FOR JUST A MENTION IN THE
HWO AND WILL LEAVE TO EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO DECIDE IF AN
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 25 MPH MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR A PRETTY WINDY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OTHER THAN WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO JUMP BACK UP ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW...AND UPPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

WEEKEND AND MID WEEK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HASNT SEEN MUCH CHANGE...MODELS
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN
PLACE NEAR THE GULF COAST AND OVER SRN CA...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LOW
SITS OVER THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS STARTS SLIDING EAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BUILD IN AS BOTH DISTURBANCES TO THE WEST
CREEP CLOSER. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH AXIS
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WITH SRLY WINDS REMAINING IN THE 15 TO
20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS.  BY 12Z SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED THROUGH THE SANDHILLS. AT THIS
POINT...ANY PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST...SO
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE.

THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS STILL LOOKING TO BE AN ACTIVE ONE...WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT BEING THE FEATURE OF INTEREST. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONT/CAN BORDER SLIDES EAST SAT...WHILE A PIECE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM IN THE
DESERT SW IS MOVING NE TOWARD THE REGION. THE PUSH FROM THE NRN
SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT FURTHER SE INTO THE
AREA...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA THAT IT WILL BE DRAPED FROM SW/NE
THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS STILL VARY A LITTLE WITH THE EXACT
DETAILS...THE NAM/SREF ARE A TOUCH FURTHER INTO THE CWA /THE
MID/SERN THIRD/...VS THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM WHICH HANG IT UP OVER THE
NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. FORECAST TIMING REMAINS A BLEND AT THIS
POINT...BUT ANY MODEL YOU LOOK AT SHOWS IT BEING A CONCERN. ADDED A
LITTLE MORE DETAIL TO TIMING OF PRECIP...TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT SAT
MORNING...AND TOTALLY REMOVED FROM 12-15Z. IF MODEL TRENDS
HOLD...DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ANYTHING PRIOR TO 18Z.  DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE BETTER CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODELS
TO OCCUR DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES THEN
IN THE EVENING POST 00Z AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES IN AND A S/SWRLY
LLJ INCREASES TO ARND 40-50KTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH INSTABILITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG /NAM SHOWING
VALUES CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG/. WHILE OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ISNT THE
GREATEST...ROUGHLY IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS /INSTABILITY TAPERS OFF SOME
OVERNIGHT/...AND HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT THAT MENTION IN THE HWO.

HAD THOUGHT 24 HRS AGO THAT FOR SUNDAY...PRECIP WOULD BE TAPERING
OFF DURING MORNING...WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RUNS HAVE CONTINUED A TREND FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF A SLOWER
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SO COULD BE MORE
PRECIP FOR YOUR EASTER. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BECAUSE IT WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW SATURDAY PLAYS
OUT...AND WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY ENDS UP. QUESTION WITH WHETHER IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY LIKE MANY
OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...WHICH COULD BE A FOCUS FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS...THOUGH THE
MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY /SHOULD/ BE JUST OFF TO THE E/SE OF THE
CWA. LOT OF DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT...FOR BOTH DAYS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...DID BUMP UP HIGHS ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD SEE BETTER MIXING WITH
GUSTY SRLY WINDS...FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NEAR ORD...TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS NC KS. SUNDAY IS COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60 TO NEAR 70.

KEPT THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK DRY...THOUGH SOME MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER EVEN INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST...CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY IN BETWEEN THIS
LATEST SYSTEM AND ANOTHER APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH A RIDGE
AXIS ONCE AGAIN SLIDING EAST ONTO AND THEN THROUGH THE PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO KEEP WINDS ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM THE
NORTH TO SERLY BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE AGAIN BECOMING
ORGANIZED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
S/SERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...AND TEMPS BY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S.

WED/THURS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE
CWA...BUT LOT OF QUESTIONS LINGER IN THIS DAY 6/7 TIMEFRAME. BY THE
TIME 12Z WED ROLLS AROUND...MODELS ARENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT
SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVING MOVED INTO THE PAC
NW REGION...WITH TROUGHING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WRN CONUS AND
SWRLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS.  THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSER TO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE THIS MAIN LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT COULD
BRING PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE CWA. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW
SIDE...UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES...FRONTAL POSITIONS
AND OTHER FEATURE DETAILS CAN BE WORKED OUT...BUT IT IS A PERIOD
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ONTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH WARMER AND WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST
TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ON FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 172101
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
401 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

EXPECT A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...TO CROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER ANTICIPATED LOCALLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIODS.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COMBINED WITH LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD HELP KEEP UP
LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THIS MORNINGS UNSEASONABLY COLD
READINGS...ALBEIT STILL ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MID APRIL.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WILL ACT TO GENERATE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED A FEW DEGREES. THEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS
FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REALLY
TIGHTEN...AND FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
CONTEMPLATED A WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW...BUT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
COMING IN JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE WITH SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO OPTED FOR JUST A MENTION IN THE
HWO AND WILL LEAVE TO EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO DECIDE IF AN
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 25 MPH MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR A PRETTY WINDY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OTHER THAN WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO JUMP BACK UP ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW...AND UPPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

WEEKEND AND MID WEEK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HASNT SEEN MUCH CHANGE...MODELS
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN
PLACE NEAR THE GULF COAST AND OVER SRN CA...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LOW
SITS OVER THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS STARTS SLIDING EAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BUILD IN AS BOTH DISTURBANCES TO THE WEST
CREEP CLOSER. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH AXIS
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WITH SRLY WINDS REMAINING IN THE 15 TO
20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS.  BY 12Z SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED THROUGH THE SANDHILLS. AT THIS
POINT...ANY PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST...SO
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE.

THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS STILL LOOKING TO BE AN ACTIVE ONE...WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT BEING THE FEATURE OF INTEREST. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONT/CAN BORDER SLIDES EAST SAT...WHILE A PIECE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM IN THE
DESERT SW IS MOVING NE TOWARD THE REGION. THE PUSH FROM THE NRN
SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT FURTHER SE INTO THE
AREA...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA THAT IT WILL BE DRAPED FROM SW/NE
THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS STILL VARY A LITTLE WITH THE EXACT
DETAILS...THE NAM/SREF ARE A TOUCH FURTHER INTO THE CWA /THE
MID/SERN THIRD/...VS THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM WHICH HANG IT UP OVER THE
NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. FORECAST TIMING REMAINS A BLEND AT THIS
POINT...BUT ANY MODEL YOU LOOK AT SHOWS IT BEING A CONCERN. ADDED A
LITTLE MORE DETAIL TO TIMING OF PRECIP...TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT SAT
MORNING...AND TOTALLY REMOVED FROM 12-15Z. IF MODEL TRENDS
HOLD...DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ANYTHING PRIOR TO 18Z.  DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE BETTER CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODELS
TO OCCUR DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES THEN
IN THE EVENING POST 00Z AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES IN AND A S/SWRLY
LLJ INCREASES TO ARND 40-50KTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH INSTABILITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG /NAM SHOWING
VALUES CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG/. WHILE OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ISNT THE
GREATEST...ROUGHLY IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS /INSTABILITY TAPERS OFF SOME
OVERNIGHT/...AND HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT THAT MENTION IN THE HWO.

HAD THOUGHT 24 HRS AGO THAT FOR SUNDAY...PRECIP WOULD BE TAPERING
OFF DURING MORNING...WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RUNS HAVE CONTINUED A TREND FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF A SLOWER
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SO COULD BE MORE
PRECIP FOR YOUR EASTER. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BECAUSE IT WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW SATURDAY PLAYS
OUT...AND WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY ENDS UP. QUESTION WITH WHETHER IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY LIKE MANY
OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...WHICH COULD BE A FOCUS FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS...THOUGH THE
MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY /SHOULD/ BE JUST OFF TO THE E/SE OF THE
CWA. LOT OF DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT...FOR BOTH DAYS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...DID BUMP UP HIGHS ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD SEE BETTER MIXING WITH
GUSTY SRLY WINDS...FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NEAR ORD...TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS NC KS. SUNDAY IS COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60 TO NEAR 70.

KEPT THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK DRY...THOUGH SOME MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER EVEN INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST...CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY IN BETWEEN THIS
LATEST SYSTEM AND ANOTHER APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH A RIDGE
AXIS ONCE AGAIN SLIDING EAST ONTO AND THEN THROUGH THE PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO KEEP WINDS ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM THE
NORTH TO SERLY BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE AGAIN BECOMING
ORGANIZED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
S/SERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...AND TEMPS BY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S.

WED/THURS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE
CWA...BUT LOT OF QUESTIONS LINGER IN THIS DAY 6/7 TIMEFRAME. BY THE
TIME 12Z WED ROLLS AROUND...MODELS ARENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT
SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVING MOVED INTO THE PAC
NW REGION...WITH TROUGHING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WRN CONUS AND
SWRLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS.  THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSER TO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE THIS MAIN LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT COULD
BRING PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE CWA. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW
SIDE...UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES...FRONTAL POSITIONS
AND OTHER FEATURE DETAILS CAN BE WORKED OUT...BUT IT IS A PERIOD
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING TO EVENTUALLY
SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER STREAM ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
OVERALL...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AS THIS MORNINGS STRATUS
HAS BURNED OFF NEAR THE TERMINAL.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KLBF 172034
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
334 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KTS...WITH SOME
OF THIS WIND MIXING TO THE SURFACE...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT KICKS IN OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM AROUND 8C THIS EVENING TO 11C BY MORNING.
FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES REACHING
21C ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS AND 12C IN THE FAR EAST. GOOD MIXING
/ABOVE 700 MB WEST AND NEAR 800MB EAST/ WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WEST...AND NEAR 70 EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 500 METER
WIND SPEEDS NEARING 28 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 TO 27 MPH
AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING A WIND ADVISORY TO BE
NEEDED...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL PASS ALONG TO THE NEXT
SHIFT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014


MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS TENDS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH...KEEPING IT DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH 00Z. THE EC AND NAM TEND HAVE THE FRONT EVOLVING FASTER
AND KICKING OFF TO THE EAST OUT OF OUR CWA BEFORE INITIATION BEGINS.
TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS MODEL WITH THE EVOLVING LOW BEING STRETCHED
NORTHWARD AND REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. PRESTORM
ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THAT LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
ALSO FAVORABLE WITH 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. SUNDAY CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA
ALONG THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING US DRY UNTIL
TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENTER OUR CWA. HAVE BROUGHT
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REFORM DURING THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE SCT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECASTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE
FURTHER TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THURSDAY...AND WILL GUST TO OVER 25 KTS BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...TAYLOR








000
FXUS63 KOAX 172012
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER INITIALLY...THEN TRANSITIONING TO WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER REGION...WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS SECOND WAVE COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHEASTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN IA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
DEWPOINTS INITIALLY WILL BE DRY...BUT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL HELP
BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWEST ACROSS WESTERN  IOWA...AND A BIT HIGHER IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA... BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY EVENING. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
NEAR THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 21Z SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT PEAK HEATING WHEN A WEAK CAP
ERODES. INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT WIND SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH WEAKENING
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LOW...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANYTHING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE AREA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT KICKER TO PUSH IT OUT.
THE GFS IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF HOLDING ONTO CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS COULD BRING SOME GENEROUS RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND COULD POTENTIALLY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS. PRECIP DEFICITS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 2 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL...DESPITE THE GENEROUS RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND. HAVE COORDINATED
WITH MBRFC ON POTENTIAL RIVER FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...CONVECTIVE THREAT LINGERS INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD STILL A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE SOUTH OF I80 EARLY
MONDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THE ORIGINAL
STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN THE WESTERN US EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH COULD
AFFECT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND REINFORCING SHORT WAVE...COMBINED
WITH TYPICAL LOW LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE THROUGH AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT MID WEEK...BUT WAY TO FAR OUT
TO FIGURE OUT ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS. UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...AS MVFR
STRATUS BANK CLEARS OUT OF KOMA/KLNK BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15G25KT BY MID-MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KLBF 171822
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
122 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAROCLINIC LEAF ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
DARKENING IN THE IMAGE INDICATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALIES
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH A BOUNDARY OR WEAK FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN WYOMING.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FOR TODAY...RETURN FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL GENERATE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WEAK BOUNDARY AS INDICATED BY THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 290-300K LAYER. WITH CONDENSATION
DEFICITS OF 45MB OR LOWER...SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A CROSS-SECTION OF THETA-E...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION INDICATES SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE 290-305K LAYER UNTIL AROUND 18Z. THEREFORE...
SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS WOULD BE APPROPRIATE...THOUGH THE COVERAGE
IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GET
ABOVE 0C IN THE 15-18Z PERIOD...THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR A
MIX.

AS THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE AND SOME SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

STARTING ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS WHILE THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALOFT NOW OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN MOVE ONLAND. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHILE THE SECOND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST
SLIGHTLY...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. SEVERAL SURFACE LOS WILL DEVELOP...BUT THE ONE WITH THE
MOST IMPACT LOCALLY WILL BE THE ONE OVER EASTERN WYOMING/WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY AND AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS LOOKING FOR A RATHER BREEZY AND WARM DAY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER ON FRIDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
RISING TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED MIXING OVER THE WESTERN AREAS UP TO
700-600MB AND TO 800MB OVER THE EASTERN HALF. WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS
THE WEST. DID WARM TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MAY NEED TO GO WARMER YET AS THE FORECAST REMAINS BELOW
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGHS FROM THE SOUNDINGS. AS FOR THE
WINDS...GRADIENT WINDS LOOK TO BE 20 TO 25KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER TOP OUT BETWEEN 30
AND 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME NO FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED AS ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTH TO KEEP VERY DRY AIR FROM TAKING
OVER...SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY NOW IS ONLY DROPPING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE.

THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE TEMPERATURES SHOULDN/T DROP TOO
FAR DUE WINDS STAYING BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A
QUESTION OF RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AIR
BEING LIFTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE
IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND JUST DON/T THINK THERE IS ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS QUESTIONABLE AS THE LAYER
BELOW 600MB IS VERY DRY. DIDN/T WANT TO ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THOUGH AS THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT
LIES. 17.00Z MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL NOT BE
LOCALLY. BECAUSE OF THIS...REDUCED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
ISOLATED AND ONCOMING SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
BRIEFLY BECOMING FAIRLY ZONAL. THEN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN A
BIT MORE AGAIN. THE MODELS AREN/T HANDLING THIS SYSTEM REAL WELL
AS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FROM ANY MODEL HAVE WAFFLED WITH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR INSTANCE...THE 17.00
RUNS ARE NOT NEAR AS DEEP WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
IMPACTS THE MOISTURE FLOW NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG DRY LINE WITH BOTH HAVING LESSER IMPACT
WITH THE CURRENT RUNS. THAT BEING SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK BUT THE TRAJECTORY RIGHT NOW WOULD
BRING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
COULD PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN THE DRY SLOT...LEADING TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REFORM DURING THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE SCT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECASTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE
FURTHER TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THURSDAY...AND WILL GUST TO OVER 25 KTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...TAYLOR





000
FXUS63 KGID 171608
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1108 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY ALSO INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND THEN
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...ONLY MAXING OUT AROUND 80KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
PROMOTING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. FINALLY...AN AREA OF
STRATUS...WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL...IS ALSO BEING INDICATED
ACROSS THE AREA BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

SUBTLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...AS DEPICTED PRIMARILY BY
THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALONG THE 305-310K SURFACES...WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STRATUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS INCREASING DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT AND MIXING COMMENCE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH CLOUDY SKIES IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
THROUGH 12Z...WITH CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MISS OUR
AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH. A RESULTANT LACK IN OMEGA ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT SUGGESTS DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INFILTRATION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SUGGESTS A
COOLER DAY WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 50S WILL
BE REALIZED THROUGH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD THEN PROMOTE WARMER CONDITIONS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CERTAINLY NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...AS IN
A VERY GENERAL SENSE WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH ONE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER- CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT TENDING TO MAINLY
FAVOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THEN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE RAIN CHANCE
POSSIBLE ARRIVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS STILL
OFFICIALLY REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS SECOND SYSTEM STILL
HAS PLENTY OF DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT...AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN ONE COULD BREAK OUT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY/TUES
NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS ALSO THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD SLOW ENOUGH TO DELAY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO MORE-SO WED NIGHT/THURS...WHICH IS STILL BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN OTHER WORDS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO PRECIP CHANCES ADVERTISED DURING THE MONDAY DAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME THIS IS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT
WAY...AND LIKEWISE THE SLIGHT POPS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE NOT GUARANTEED TO STAY IN PLACE. WITH THIS TYPICAL
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DAY 4-7 RANGE...WE ARE BETTER
OFF FOCUSING ON THE SHORTER-RANGE WEEKEND SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL
FOR MORE BENEFICIAL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO ITS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
A FEW STRONG STORMS. TEMP-WISE...THIS TIME FRAME AS A WHOLE LOOKS
TO AVERAGE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HIGH
TEMPS ON MOST DAYS AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR-80 RANGE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED HAZARDS...RIGHT OFF THE
BAT ON FRIDAY SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
UPWARD CLOSER TO ADVISORY-CRITERIA...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW KEPT
THEM AVERAGING ROUGHLY 5 MPH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT THIS
BEARS WATCHING. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DESPITE
THE WIND FRIDAY INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOMING OUT NO LOWER THAN THE 30-35
PERCENT...SAFELY ABOVE THE CRITICAL 20 PERCENT THRESHOLD.

DIVING INTO MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT ONE 24-48 HOUR
CHUNK AT A TIME...

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID-UPPER LEVEL STORY INVOLVES A GRADUAL
BUT VERY EVIDENT TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A PASSING RIDGE AXIS DURING THE DAY GIVES
WAY TO AN APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT THAT REACHES THE 4-CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...STEADY DAYTIME PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL CRANK UP THE BOTH
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
DAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ANOTHER 3-5
MPH...GENERALLY LOOKING AT SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO JUMP 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS VALUES...WITH MOST OF THE CWA TOPPING OUT
BETWEEN 70-73. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AT
GENERALLY SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALTHOUGH A SURFACE
TROUGH EDGES VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE...POTENTIALLY BRINGING LIGHTER BREEZES TO THAT AREA. KEPT
LOW TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...RIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES MOST
AREAS. DESPITE A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS RATHER MEAGER AND EVEN THOUGH THE 06Z NAM
ADVERTISED A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE OVERNIGHT THERE IS ALSO
CAPPING AND LACK OF CONVERGENCE...SO EXPECT ANY OVERNIGHT
SHOWER/STORM RISK TO STAY AT LEAST SLIGHTLY NORTH AND/OR WEST OF
THE CWA.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THINGS TURN MORE ACTIVE PRECIP-WISE AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LIKELY IN AT LEAST A FEW SMALLER PIECES
AS OPPOSED TO ONE COHESIVE STRONG WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA...TURNING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY IN ITS WAKE. AS FOR
THE DAYTIME HOURS...THERE ARE STILL A TON OF QUESTIONS REGARDING
PRECIP CHANCES...AND THUS FOR GOOD REASON POPS HAVE BEEN HELD NO
HIGHER THAN THE 30-40 RANGE DESPITE WHAT SOME MODEL QPF FIELDS
LOOK LIKE. FOR THE MORNING HOURS...CONFINED ONLY SLIGHT POPS TO
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...AND EVEN THIS COULD BE
PRETTY IFFY. THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z/4PM
AND QUITE POSSIBLY IN A RATHER NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THIS
FRONTAL ZONE LIES...AND THUS THE SOMEWHAT BROAD-BRUSHED POPS.
SHOULD DAYTIME STORMS FIRE...MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM SUGGEST AT
LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST...GIVEN 0-1KM MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER
OF 20-30KT...LIKELY YIELDING SLOW-MOVING STORMS WITH MAINLY A
HAIL/WIND THREAT. EVEN IF AFTERNOON STORMS FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES AND
INTERACTS ON THE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR 850MB. GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL
A FEW DAYS AWAY...OPTED TO LEAVE POPS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH NOTHING ABOVE 60 PERCENT QUITE YET. COULD EASILY
SEE A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY DECENT RAINFALL
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE
ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/10PM ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION IS IN FACT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. WAS A BIT SURPRISED TO NOT EVEN SEE A 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITY INTRODUCED BY SPC ON THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK...AND
UNLESS THINGS CHANGE QUITE A BIT IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS WOULD EXPECT
AT LEAST A 5 PERCENT SEVERE RISK ADDED 24 HOURS FROM NOW ON THE
DAY 2 OUTLOOK. TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING THAT HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT
OVERLY ABUNDANT...SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT RISE IN THE
WAKE OF A MILDER NIGHT...AND BUMPED UP HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES IN MANY
AREAS...RANGING FROM NEAR-70 FAR NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S/NEAR-80
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN MID-UPPER LEVEL
THEME DURING THIS 48-HOUR PERIOD PER CONSENSUS OF THE OOZ
ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE. THE NET RESULT IS THAT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS
WERE MAINTAINED FOR SUNDAY DAYTIME...WHICH FOR THOSE WITH PLANS
MEANS THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY COULD BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT A TRUE WASHOUT
EITHER. GIVEN THE SLOW SYSTEM DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY PER THE
ECMWF...INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT KEPT
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT DRY AT LEAST FOR NOW. TEMP-WISE...MADE LITTLE
CHANGE WITH SUNDAY MAINLY UPPER 60S AND MONDAY MAINLY LOW 70S.

FINALLY FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...AS MENTIONED
EARLIER OPTED TO STICK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PRECEDING FEW
PERIODS IN CASE SOME LEAD ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE NEXT WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH CAN SPARK SOME CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
STILL QUITE SKETCHY...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT A LARGE-
SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL SET UP IN SOME WAY/SHAPE/FORM BY
MID-WEEK...PUTTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN WARM AND POTENTIALLY
WINDY SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT. ALTHOUGH WAY TOO EARLY TO
SAY WHETHER THE LOCAL AREA SEES A LEGITIMATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE CALENDAR SUGGESTS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE.
TEMP-WISE...LEFT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY MID-UPPER 70S...BUT
NUDGED UP WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES INTO MAINLY THE 79-83 RANGE. ON
ONE LAST NOTE...THERE ARE NO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FORECAST DURING
THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...AND ALTHOUGH ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR
SURE WHETHER WE ARE DONE WITH FREEZE CONCERNS FOR THE
SEASON...CLIMATOLOGY DICTATES THAT THE PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER
FREEZE WILL BE GETTING INCREASINGLY LOW WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING TO EVENTUALLY
SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER STREAM ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
OVERALL...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AS THIS MORNINGS STRATUS
HAS BURNED OFF NEAR THE TERMINAL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KOAX 171552
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1052 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LATEST OBS SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE BNDRY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL KS INTO NRN
MO TO SFC LOW CENTERED IN NERN IA. ALSO...EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD
WAS ACCOMPANYING CAA FILTERING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE RAPID DISSIPATION BY LATE MORNING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM PDS IS POSSIBLE CONVECTION THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS ADVERTISE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NRN
PLAINS FRI NIGHT WILL INDUCE SFC LOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. BY 12Z
SAT...WELL ESTABLISHED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE AT THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. MODELS INDICATE BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN IN RESPONSE TO
FLOW ALOFT TURNING NEAR ZONAL. MATTER OF FACT...NAM/GFS INDICATE THE
BNDRY HOLDING TIGHT OVER THE CWA ALL THE WAY UNTIL LATE SUN. WITH
PWS AROUND 1.3"...LIKELY THAT GENEROUS CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
REALIZED ALONG/SOUTH IF I-80.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN DURING THE EXTENDED PDS
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN COMING NEXT WEEK. STRONG NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE WRN DAKOTAS WED
MORNING WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS.
MOIST WAA ENSUES THEN LEADING UP TO INTENSE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU
THURSDAY MORNING. AGAIN...GENEROUS ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
IN PLACE AT TIME OF COLD FROPA. APPEARS THAT DEEP LYR SHEAR/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY WED EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...AS MVFR
STRATUS BANK CLEARS OUT OF KOMA/KLNK BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15G25KT BY MID-MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KLBF 171142
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAROCLINIC LEAF ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
DARKENING IN THE IMAGE INDICATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALIES
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH A BOUNDARY OR WEAK FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN WYOMING.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FOR TODAY...RETURN FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL GENERATE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WEAK BOUNDARY AS INDICATED BY THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 290-300K LAYER. WITH CONDENSATION
DEFICITS OF 45MB OR LOWER...SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A CROSS-SECTION OF THETA-E...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION INDICATES SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE 290-305K LAYER UNTIL AROUND 18Z. THEREFORE...
SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS WOULD BE APPROPRIATE...THOUGH THE COVERAGE
IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GET
ABOVE 0C IN THE 15-18Z PERIOD...THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR A
MIX.

AS THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE AND SOME SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

STARTING ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS WHILE THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALOFT NOW OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN MOVE ONLAND. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHILE THE SECOND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST
SLIGHTLY...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. SEVERAL SURFACE LOS WILL DEVELOP...BUT THE ONE WITH THE
MOST IMPACT LOCALLY WILL BE THE ONE OVER EASTERN WYOMING/WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY AND AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS LOOKING FOR A RATHER BREEZY AND WARM DAY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER ON FRIDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
RISING TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED MIXING OVER THE WESTERN AREAS UP TO
700-600MB AND TO 800MB OVER THE EASTERN HALF. WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS
THE WEST. DID WARM TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MAY NEED TO GO WARMER YET AS THE FORECAST REMAINS BELOW
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGHS FROM THE SOUNDINGS. AS FOR THE
WINDS...GRADIENT WINDS LOOK TO BE 20 TO 25KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER TOP OUT BETWEEN 30
AND 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME NO FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED AS ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTH TO KEEP VERY DRY AIR FROM TAKING
OVER...SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY NOW IS ONLY DROPPING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE.

THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE TEMPERATURES SHOULDN/T DROP TOO
FAR DUE WINDS STAYING BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A
QUESTION OF RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AIR
BEING LIFTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE
IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND JUST DON/T THINK THERE IS ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS QUESTIONABLE AS THE LAYER
BELOW 600MB IS VERY DRY. DIDN/T WANT TO ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THOUGH AS THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT
LIES. 17.00Z MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL NOT BE
LOCALLY. BECAUSE OF THIS...REDUCED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
ISOLATED AND ONCOMING SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
BRIEFLY BECOMING FAIRLY ZONAL. THEN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN A
BIT MORE AGAIN. THE MODELS AREN/T HANDLING THIS SYSTEM REAL WELL
AS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FROM ANY MODEL HAVE WAFFLED WITH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR INSTANCE...THE 17.00
RUNS ARE NOT NEAR AS DEEP WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
IMPACTS THE MOISTURE FLOW NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG DRY LINE WITH BOTH HAVING LESSER IMPACT
WITH THE CURRENT RUNS. THAT BEING SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK BUT THE TRAJECTORY RIGHT NOW WOULD
BRING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
COULD PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN THE DRY SLOT...LEADING TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MARGINAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS WEST OF MRR-OGA-IML. CEILINGS
WILL LIFT ABOVE THE VISUAL THRESHOLDS BY 17Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KGID 171132
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
632 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY ALSO INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND THEN
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...ONLY MAXING OUT AROUND 80KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
PROMOTING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. FINALLY...AN AREA OF
STRATUS...WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL...IS ALSO BEING INDICATED
ACROSS THE AREA BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

SUBTLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...AS DEPICTED PRIMARILY BY
THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALONG THE 305-310K SURFACES...WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STRATUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS INCREASING DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT AND MIXING COMMENCE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH CLOUDY SKIES IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
THROUGH 12Z...WITH CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MISS OUR
AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH. A RESULTANT LACK IN OMEGA ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT SUGGESTS DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INFILTRATION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SUGGESTS A
COOLER DAY WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 50S WILL
BE REALIZED THROUGH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD THEN PROMOTE WARMER CONDITIONS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CERTAINLY NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...AS IN
A VERY GENERAL SENSE WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH ONE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER- CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT TENDING TO MAINLY
FAVOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THEN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE RAIN CHANCE
POSSIBLE ARRIVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS STILL
OFFICIALLY REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS SECOND SYSTEM STILL
HAS PLENTY OF DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT...AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN ONE COULD BREAK OUT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY/TUES
NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS ALSO THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD SLOW ENOUGH TO DELAY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO MORE-SO WED NIGHT/THURS...WHICH IS STILL BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN OTHER WORDS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO PRECIP CHANCES ADVERTISED DURING THE MONDAY DAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME THIS IS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT
WAY...AND LIKEWISE THE SLIGHT POPS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE NOT GUARANTEED TO STAY IN PLACE. WITH THIS TYPICAL
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DAY 4-7 RANGE...WE ARE BETTER
OFF FOCUSING ON THE SHORTER-RANGE WEEKEND SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL
FOR MORE BENEFICIAL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO ITS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
A FEW STRONG STORMS. TEMP-WISE...THIS TIME FRAME AS A WHOLE LOOKS
TO AVERAGE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HIGH
TEMPS ON MOST DAYS AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR-80 RANGE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED HAZARDS...RIGHT OFF THE
BAT ON FRIDAY SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
UPWARD CLOSER TO ADVISORY-CRITERIA...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW KEPT
THEM AVERAGING ROUGHLY 5 MPH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT THIS
BEARS WATCHING. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DESPITE
THE WIND FRIDAY INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOMING OUT NO LOWER THAN THE 30-35
PERCENT...SAFELY ABOVE THE CRITICAL 20 PERCENT THRESHOLD.

DIVING INTO MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT ONE 24-48 HOUR
CHUNK AT A TIME...

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID-UPPER LEVEL STORY INVOLVES A GRADUAL
BUT VERY EVIDENT TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A PASSING RIDGE AXIS DURING THE DAY GIVES
WAY TO AN APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT THAT REACHES THE 4-CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...STEADY DAYTIME PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL CRANK UP THE BOTH
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
DAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ANOTHER 3-5
MPH...GENERALLY LOOKING AT SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO JUMP 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS VALUES...WITH MOST OF THE CWA TOPPING OUT
BETWEEN 70-73. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AT
GENERALLY SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALTHOUGH A SURFACE
TROUGH EDGES VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE...POTENTIALLY BRINGING LIGHTER BREEZES TO THAT AREA. KEPT
LOW TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...RIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES MOST
AREAS. DESPITE A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS RATHER MEAGER AND EVEN THOUGH THE 06Z NAM
ADVERTISED A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE OVERNIGHT THERE IS ALSO
CAPPING AND LACK OF CONVERGENCE...SO EXPECT ANY OVERNIGHT
SHOWER/STORM RISK TO STAY AT LEAST SLIGHTLY NORTH AND/OR WEST OF
THE CWA.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THINGS TURN MORE ACTIVE PRECIP-WISE AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LIKELY IN AT LEAST A FEW SMALLER PIECES
AS OPPOSED TO ONE COHESIVE STRONG WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA...TURNING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY IN ITS WAKE. AS FOR
THE DAYTIME HOURS...THERE ARE STILL A TON OF QUESTIONS REGARDING
PRECIP CHANCES...AND THUS FOR GOOD REASON POPS HAVE BEEN HELD NO
HIGHER THAN THE 30-40 RANGE DESPITE WHAT SOME MODEL QPF FIELDS
LOOK LIKE. FOR THE MORNING HOURS...CONFINED ONLY SLIGHT POPS TO
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...AND EVEN THIS COULD BE
PRETTY IFFY. THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z/4PM
AND QUITE POSSIBLY IN A RATHER NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THIS
FRONTAL ZONE LIES...AND THUS THE SOMEWHAT BROAD-BRUSHED POPS.
SHOULD DAYTIME STORMS FIRE...MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM SUGGEST AT
LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST...GIVEN 0-1KM MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER
OF 20-30KT...LIKELY YIELDING SLOW-MOVING STORMS WITH MAINLY A
HAIL/WIND THREAT. EVEN IF AFTERNOON STORMS FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES AND
INTERACTS ON THE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR 850MB. GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL
A FEW DAYS AWAY...OPTED TO LEAVE POPS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH NOTHING ABOVE 60 PERCENT QUITE YET. COULD EASILY
SEE A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY DECENT RAINFALL
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE
ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/10PM ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION IS IN FACT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. WAS A BIT SURPRISED TO NOT EVEN SEE A 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITY INTRODUCED BY SPC ON THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK...AND
UNLESS THINGS CHANGE QUITE A BIT IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS WOULD EXPECT
AT LEAST A 5 PERCENT SEVERE RISK ADDED 24 HOURS FROM NOW ON THE
DAY 2 OUTLOOK. TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING THAT HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT
OVERLY ABUNDANT...SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT RISE IN THE
WAKE OF A MILDER NIGHT...AND BUMPED UP HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES IN MANY
AREAS...RANGING FROM NEAR-70 FAR NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S/NEAR-80
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN MID-UPPER LEVEL
THEME DURING THIS 48-HOUR PERIOD PER CONSENSUS OF THE OOZ
ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE. THE NET RESULT IS THAT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS
WERE MAINTAINED FOR SUNDAY DAYTIME...WHICH FOR THOSE WITH PLANS
MEANS THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY COULD BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT A TRUE WASHOUT
EITHER. GIVEN THE SLOW SYSTEM DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY PER THE
ECMWF...INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT KEPT
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT DRY AT LEAST FOR NOW. TEMP-WISE...MADE LITTLE
CHANGE WITH SUNDAY MAINLY UPPER 60S AND MONDAY MAINLY LOW 70S.

FINALLY FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...AS MENTIONED
EARLIER OPTED TO STICK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PRECEDING FEW
PERIODS IN CASE SOME LEAD ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE NEXT WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH CAN SPARK SOME CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
STILL QUITE SKETCHY...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT A LARGE-
SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL SET UP IN SOME WAY/SHAPE/FORM BY
MID-WEEK...PUTTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN WARM AND POTENTIALLY
WINDY SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT. ALTHOUGH WAY TOO EARLY TO
SAY WHETHER THE LOCAL AREA SEES A LEGITIMATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE CALENDAR SUGGESTS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE.
TEMP-WISE...LEFT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY MID-UPPER 70S...BUT
NUDGED UP WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES INTO MAINLY THE 79-83 RANGE. ON
ONE LAST NOTE...THERE ARE NO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FORECAST DURING
THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...AND ALTHOUGH ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR
SURE WHETHER WE ARE DONE WITH FREEZE CONCERNS FOR THE
SEASON...CLIMATOLOGY DICTATES THAT THE PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER
FREEZE WILL BE GETTING INCREASINGLY LOW WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z.

STRATUS...WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL...PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION AS OF 1130Z AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS WILL
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. INCREASING DIABATIC HEATING AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT AND MIXING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD
THEN PROMOTE DIMINISHMENT IN THIS STRATUS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL THROUGH 15Z...WITH PERIODIC
CLOUDS NEAR 12000FT AGL EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE TO START THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME SUSTAINED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 08KTS TO FINISH THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 171119
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LATEST OBS SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE BNDRY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL KS INTO NRN
MO TO SFC LOW CENTERED IN NERN IA. ALSO...EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD
WAS ACCOMPANYING CAA FILTERING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE RAPID DISSIPATION BY LATE MORNING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM PDS IS POSSIBLE CONVECTION THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS ADVERTISE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NRN
PLAINS FRI NIGHT WILL INDUCE SFC LOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. BY 12Z
SAT...WELL ESTABLISHED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE AT THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. MODELS INDICATE BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN IN RESPONSE TO
FLOW ALOFT TURNING NEAR ZONAL. MATTER OF FACT...NAM/GFS INDICATE THE
BNDRY HOLDING TIGHT OVER THE CWA ALL THE WAY UNTIL LATE SUN. WITH
PWS AROUND 1.3"...LIKELY THAT GENEROUS CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
REALIZED ALONG/SOUTH IF I-80.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN DURING THE EXTENDED PDS
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN COMING NEXT WEEK. STRONG NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE WRN DAKOTAS WED
MORNING WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS.
MOIST WAA ENSUES THEN LEADING UP TO INTENSE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU
THURSDAY MORNING. AGAIN...GENEROUS ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
IN PLACE AT TIME OF COLD FROPA. APPEARS THAT DEEP LYR SHEAR/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY WED EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 SITES WILL SCATTER AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH TODAY WITH SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE BRISK
NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KGID 170938
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
438 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY ALSO INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND THEN
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
HOWEVER...ONLY MAXING OUT AROUND 80KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 00Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
PROMOTING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. FINALLY...AN AREA OF
STRATUS...WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL...IS ALSO BEING INDICATED
ACROSS THE AREA BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

SUBTLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION...AS DEPICTED PRIMARILY BY
THE OPERATIONAL GFS ALONG THE 305-310K SURFACES...WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STRATUS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS INCREASING DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT AND MIXING COMMENCE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH CLOUDY SKIES IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
THROUGH 12Z...WITH CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MISS OUR
AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH. A RESULTANT LACK IN OMEGA ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT SUGGESTS DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INFILTRATION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS SUGGESTS A
COOLER DAY WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 50S WILL
BE REALIZED THROUGH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD THEN PROMOTE WARMER CONDITIONS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CERTAINLY NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...AS IN
A VERY GENERAL SENSE WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH ONE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER- CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT TENDING TO MAINLY
FAVOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THEN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE RAIN CHANCE
POSSIBLE ARRIVING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS STILL
OFFICIALLY REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS SECOND SYSTEM STILL
HAS PLENTY OF DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT...AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN ONE COULD BREAK OUT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY/TUES
NIGHT...WHILE THERE IS ALSO THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD SLOW ENOUGH TO DELAY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO MORE-SO WED NIGHT/THURS...WHICH IS STILL BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN OTHER WORDS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO PRECIP CHANCES ADVERTISED DURING THE MONDAY DAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME THIS IS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT
WAY...AND LIKEWISE THE SLIGHT POPS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE NOT GUARANTEED TO STAY IN PLACE. WITH THIS TYPICAL
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DAY 4-7 RANGE...WE ARE BETTER
OFF FOCUSING ON THE SHORTER-RANGE WEEKEND SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL
FOR MORE BENEFICIAL MOISTURE...BUT ALSO ITS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
A FEW STRONG STORMS. TEMP-WISE...THIS TIME FRAME AS A WHOLE LOOKS
TO AVERAGE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HIGH
TEMPS ON MOST DAYS AIMED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR-80 RANGE.

AS FOR POTENTIAL NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED HAZARDS...RIGHT OFF THE
BAT ON FRIDAY SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
UPWARD CLOSER TO ADVISORY-CRITERIA...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW KEPT
THEM AVERAGING ROUGHLY 5 MPH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT THIS
BEARS WATCHING. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...DESPITE
THE WIND FRIDAY INCREASING DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOMING OUT NO LOWER THAN THE 30-35
PERCENT...SAFELY ABOVE THE CRITICAL 20 PERCENT THRESHOLD.

DIVING INTO MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT ONE 24-48 HOUR
CHUNK AT A TIME...

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID-UPPER LEVEL STORY INVOLVES A GRADUAL
BUT VERY EVIDENT TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS A PASSING RIDGE AXIS DURING THE DAY GIVES
WAY TO AN APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT THAT REACHES THE 4-CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...STEADY DAYTIME PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL CRANK UP THE BOTH
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
DAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS ANOTHER 3-5
MPH...GENERALLY LOOKING AT SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO JUMP 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS VALUES...WITH MOST OF THE CWA TOPPING OUT
BETWEEN 70-73. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AT
GENERALLY SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALTHOUGH A SURFACE
TROUGH EDGES VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST EDGES OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE...POTENTIALLY BRINGING LIGHTER BREEZES TO THAT AREA. KEPT
LOW TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...RIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES MOST
AREAS. DESPITE A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS RATHER MEAGER AND EVEN THOUGH THE 06Z NAM
ADVERTISED A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE OVERNIGHT THERE IS ALSO
CAPPING AND LACK OF CONVERGENCE...SO EXPECT ANY OVERNIGHT
SHOWER/STORM RISK TO STAY AT LEAST SLIGHTLY NORTH AND/OR WEST OF
THE CWA.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THINGS TURN MORE ACTIVE PRECIP-WISE AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LIKELY IN AT LEAST A FEW SMALLER PIECES
AS OPPOSED TO ONE COHESIVE STRONG WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA...TURNING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY IN ITS WAKE. AS FOR
THE DAYTIME HOURS...THERE ARE STILL A TON OF QUESTIONS REGARDING
PRECIP CHANCES...AND THUS FOR GOOD REASON POPS HAVE BEEN HELD NO
HIGHER THAN THE 30-40 RANGE DESPITE WHAT SOME MODEL QPF FIELDS
LOOK LIKE. FOR THE MORNING HOURS...CONFINED ONLY SLIGHT POPS TO
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...AND EVEN THIS COULD BE
PRETTY IFFY. THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z/4PM
AND QUITE POSSIBLY IN A RATHER NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THIS
FRONTAL ZONE LIES...AND THUS THE SOMEWHAT BROAD-BRUSHED POPS.
SHOULD DAYTIME STORMS FIRE...MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM SUGGEST AT
LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST...GIVEN 0-1KM MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER
OF 20-30KT...LIKELY YIELDING SLOW-MOVING STORMS WITH MAINLY A
HAIL/WIND THREAT. EVEN IF AFTERNOON STORMS FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE...SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES AND
INTERACTS ON THE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR 850MB. GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL
A FEW DAYS AWAY...OPTED TO LEAVE POPS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH NOTHING ABOVE 60 PERCENT QUITE YET. COULD EASILY
SEE A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY DECENT RAINFALL
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE
ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/10PM ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION IS IN FACT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. WAS A BIT SURPRISED TO NOT EVEN SEE A 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBABILITY INTRODUCED BY SPC ON THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK...AND
UNLESS THINGS CHANGE QUITE A BIT IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS WOULD EXPECT
AT LEAST A 5 PERCENT SEVERE RISK ADDED 24 HOURS FROM NOW ON THE
DAY 2 OUTLOOK. TEMP-WISE...ASSUMING THAT HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT
OVERLY ABUNDANT...SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT RISE IN THE
WAKE OF A MILDER NIGHT...AND BUMPED UP HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES IN MANY
AREAS...RANGING FROM NEAR-70 FAR NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S/NEAR-80
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY DAYTIME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN MID-UPPER LEVEL
THEME DURING THIS 48-HOUR PERIOD PER CONSENSUS OF THE OOZ
ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE. THE NET RESULT IS THAT WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS
WERE MAINTAINED FOR SUNDAY DAYTIME...WHICH FOR THOSE WITH PLANS
MEANS THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY COULD BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT PROBABLY NOT A TRUE WASHOUT
EITHER. GIVEN THE SLOW SYSTEM DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY PER THE
ECMWF...INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT KEPT
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT DRY AT LEAST FOR NOW. TEMP-WISE...MADE LITTLE
CHANGE WITH SUNDAY MAINLY UPPER 60S AND MONDAY MAINLY LOW 70S.

FINALLY FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME-WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...AS MENTIONED
EARLIER OPTED TO STICK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PRECEDING FEW
PERIODS IN CASE SOME LEAD ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE NEXT WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH CAN SPARK SOME CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
STILL QUITE SKETCHY...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT A LARGE-
SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL SET UP IN SOME WAY/SHAPE/FORM BY
MID-WEEK...PUTTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN WARM AND POTENTIALLY
WINDY SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT. ALTHOUGH WAY TOO EARLY TO
SAY WHETHER THE LOCAL AREA SEES A LEGITIMATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE CALENDAR SUGGESTS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE.
TEMP-WISE...LEFT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY MID-UPPER 70S...BUT
NUDGED UP WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES INTO MAINLY THE 79-83 RANGE. ON
ONE LAST NOTE...THERE ARE NO SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FORECAST DURING
THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...AND ALTHOUGH ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR
SURE WHETHER WE ARE DONE WITH FREEZE CONCERNS FOR THE
SEASON...CLIMATOLOGY DICTATES THAT THE PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER
FREEZE WILL BE GETTING INCREASINGLY LOW WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

STRATUS...WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL...PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION AS OF 0530Z AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS WILL
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER SIX OR SO HOURS. INCREASING DIABATIC HEATING
AND RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT AND MIXING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD
THEN PROMOTE DIMINISHMENT IN THIS STRATUS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL THROUGH 12Z...WITH PERIODIC
CLOUDS NEAR 12000FT AGL EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNRISE. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BECOME SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 08KTS TO FINISH
THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT GRI
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 170853
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
353 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LATEST OBS SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE BNDRY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL KS INTO NRN
MO TO SFC LOW CENTERED IN NERN IA. ALSO...EXTENSIVE STRATUS SHIELD
WAS ACCOMPANYING CAA FILTERING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE RAPID DISSIPATION BY LATE MORNING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE NEAR TERM PDS IS POSSIBLE CONVECTION THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS ADVERTISE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NRN
PLAINS FRI NIGHT WILL INDUCE SFC LOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. BY 12Z
SAT...WELL ESTABLISHED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE AT THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BNDRY. MODELS INDICATE BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN IN RESPONSE TO
FLOW ALOFT TURNING NEAR ZONAL. MATTER OF FACT...NAM/GFS INDICATE THE
BNDRY HOLDING TIGHT OVER THE CWA ALL THE WAY UNTIL LATE SUN. WITH
PWS AROUND 1.3"...LIKELY THAT GENEROUS CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
REALIZED ALONG/SOUTH IF I-80.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN DURING THE EXTENDED PDS
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN COMING NEXT WEEK. STRONG NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE WRN DAKOTAS WED
MORNING WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS.
MOIST WAA ENSUES THEN LEADING UP TO INTENSE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU
THURSDAY MORNING. AGAIN...GENEROUS ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
IN PLACE AT TIME OF COLD FROPA. APPEARS THAT DEEP LYR SHEAR/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY WED EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MVFR CIGS FL015-025 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE
TOWARD 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BETWEEN
15-18Z. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY 15-20KTS
SUSTAINED GUSTS 20 TO 25KTS...GRADUALLY DROPPING TO UNDER
15KTS...THEN UNDER 12KTS AFTER 09Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 170845
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAROCLINIC LEAF ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
DARKENING IN THE IMAGE INDICATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALIES
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH A BOUNDARY OR WEAK FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN WYOMING.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FOR TODAY...RETURN FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL GENERATE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WEAK BOUNDARY AS INDICATED BY THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 290-300K LAYER. WITH CONDENSATION
DEFICITS OF 45MB OR LOWER...SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A CROSS-SECTION OF THETA-E...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION INDICATES SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE 290-305K LAYER UNTIL AROUND 18Z. THEREFORE...
SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS WOULD BE APPROPRIATE...THOUGH THE COVERAGE
IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GET
ABOVE 0C IN THE 15-18Z PERIOD...THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR A
MIX.

AS THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE AND SOME SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

STARTING ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS WHILE THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALOFT NOW OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN MOVE ONLAND. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHILE THE SECOND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST
SLIGHTLY...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. SEVERAL SURFACE LOS WILL DEVELOP...BUT THE ONE WITH THE
MOST IMPACT LOCALLY WILL BE THE ONE OVER EASTERN WYOMING/WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY AND AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS LOOKING FOR A RATHER BREEZY AND WARM DAY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER ON FRIDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
RISING TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED MIXING OVER THE WESTERN AREAS UP TO
700-600MB AND TO 800MB OVER THE EASTERN HALF. WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS
THE WEST. DID WARM TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MAY NEED TO GO WARMER YET AS THE FORECAST REMAINS BELOW
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGHS FROM THE SOUNDINGS. AS FOR THE
WINDS...GRADIENT WINDS LOOK TO BE 20 TO 25KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER TOP OUT BETWEEN 30
AND 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME NO FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED AS ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTH TO KEEP VERY DRY AIR FROM TAKING
OVER...SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY NOW IS ONLY DROPPING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE.

THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE TEMPERATURES SHOULDN/T DROP TOO
FAR DUE WINDS STAYING BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A
QUESTION OF RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AIR
BEING LIFTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE
IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND JUST DON/T THINK THERE IS ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS QUESTIONABLE AS THE LAYER
BELOW 600MB IS VERY DRY. DIDN/T WANT TO ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THOUGH AS THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT
LIES. 17.00Z MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL NOT BE
LOCALLY. BECAUSE OF THIS...REDUCED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
ISOLATED AND ONCOMING SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
BRIEFLY BECOMING FAIRLY ZONAL. THEN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN A
BIT MORE AGAIN. THE MODELS AREN/T HANDLING THIS SYSTEM REAL WELL
AS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FROM ANY MODEL HAVE WAFFLED WITH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR INSTANCE...THE 17.00
RUNS ARE NOT NEAR AS DEEP WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
IMPACTS THE MOISTURE FLOW NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG DRY LINE WITH BOTH HAVING LESSER IMPACT
WITH THE CURRENT RUNS. THAT BEING SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK BUT THE TRAJECTORY RIGHT NOW WOULD
BRING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
COULD PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN THE DRY SLOT...LEADING TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CEILINGS IN MVFR CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE INTO THE VFR
CATEGORIES AFTER 17/12Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW
20S. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL OCCUR AT TAF SITES AND HAVE LEFT TAFS DRY
FOR NOW.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KGID 170549
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1249 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OFF DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK
EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...INTO
WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AWAY FROM US WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE TO ALSO RAPIDLY
DECREASE AND THUS OUR WIND SPEEDS WILL DIE DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY...BUT COULD SHIFT CLOSER TO DUE NORTH BY DAWN.
TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD
TO CLOUD COVER. THE DECREASING WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OFF AND COLDER AIR IS ADVECTING IN BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER MAY ACT AS A BLANKET
HELPING TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR ALL NEBRASKA ZONES AND A FEW OF OUR
NORTHERN MOST KANSAS LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE AS UNIFORM
AS FORECAST THOUGH AS ANY AREAS THAT CAN CLEAR OUT BETTER MAY DIP
COLDER THAN OUR GOING FORECAST...WHILE AREAS THAT HOLD MORE CLOUDS
COULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN OUR FORECAST. NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 30S...SO WE ARE EXPECTING LOWS TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLER TOMORROW THAN
THEY WERE TODAY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO PLACE BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND AND THUS IT MIGHT ACTUALLY
FEEL NICER FOR MANY AREAS TOMORROW. THE LIGHT WIND WILL STILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTH IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THE WIND TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THAT WARMING RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
HIGH. NORMAL HIGHS ARE NOW IN THE MID 60S AND WE SHOULD BE WELL
SHORT OF THAT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS AROUND THE MID 50S. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
OFF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO LIE WITH WEEKEND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HASNT BEEN A LOT OF
CHANGES IN THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS...WITH THE START OF THE PERIOD
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH
RIDGING IN BETWEEN A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE SRN CA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...AS THIS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ONTO THE PLAINS...AND SHOULD BE RIGHT OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE...EXPECTING THERE TO BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION...THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
STILL LOOKING AT A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS FROM THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE...WITH HIGHS SITTING IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

MOST INTERESTING TIMEFRAME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKING TO
BE THIS WEEKEND...AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO
THE REGION. BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAVING TRANSITIONED TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WEST COAST LOW HAS MOVED INLAND...AND IS
ROUGHLY LOCATED OVER WRN AZ.  THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WHILE ALSO IS
AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CO/KS BORDER.  WHILE SOME SCATTERED PRECIP A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...CHANCES WILL BE
RAMPING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESP ALONG THAT
SFC FRONT AS THE LARGER SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVY QPF FIELDS ARE POST 00Z...WITH SOME INCREASE EXPECTED WITH THE
INCREASE OF THE LLJ. MODEL DEPICTED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
VARY...AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT CANT RULE
OUT SOME AT LEAST STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH AT THIS POINT LOOKS
TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. FOR EASTER
SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION...AND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN OVER
SERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY. NOT QUITE BUYING INTO THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
SHOWING A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY...THUS RESULTING IN MORE QPF AND A MUCH SLOWER DEPARTURE.
THE 12Z GFS/GEM KEEP THINGS OPEN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO KEPT
FORECAST TRENDED THAT WAY. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING RUNS TREND BEFORE
INSERTING ANOTHER PERIOD OF POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD THE UPCOMING START OF THE WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST FOR
MON/TUES REMAIN DRY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AND GRADUALLY
MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. MORE UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES IN THE
FORECAST AS WE GET TOWARD MIDWEEK...AS A NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO/DEVELOPS OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES
REGION. POSSIBLE A SHORTWAVE PIECE OF ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWA ON WED...AND HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THE ULTIMATE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP IN
THE AREA WILL OBVIOUSLY AFFECT THINGS THIS WEEKEND...ESP
SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S FOR
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MID 60S ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING
HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FOR
TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

STRATUS...WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL...PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION AS OF 0530Z AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS WILL
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER SIX OR SO HOURS. INCREASING DIABATIC HEATING
AND RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT AND MIXING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD
THEN PROMOTE DIMINISHMENT IN THIS STRATUS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL THROUGH 12Z...WITH PERIODIC
CLOUDS NEAR 12000FT AGL EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNRISE. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BECOME SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 08KTS TO FINISH
THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT GRI
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 170539
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MILD WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS NO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST
CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES WITH A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
TRANSITIONS INTO A LATE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOISTURE IS ELEVATED AND LIFT
IS MARGINAL. BEST LAPSE RATES TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS AND TEMP
THROUGH THE COLUMN IS BELOW ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
BEST LIFT AREA...NW CWA. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP HOLDING TOGETHER FOR THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES
DECREASE...HOWEVER THERE IS A POCKET OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 290K/295K
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ANY ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY...IN LIQUID
FORM...INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. TEMPS REBOUND
TOMORROW ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AND EXIT EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BELOW H850
MB...WAS INDICATED IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT AND MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM UP FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. 998MB LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER SWRN SD
BY FRIDAY EVENING DRAWING THE WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. A
CHECK WITH THE MODELS INDICATED LOW CHANCES FOR HIGH CLOUDS AS
HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS.

THE MODELS DID SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE. THIS CONVECTION...IF IT DEVELOPS...WOULD BE CARRIED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. K INDICES DURING THIS TIME ARE
25C OR LESS BUT THE NAM INDICATED 750MB CAPE UP TO 300 J/KG. POPS
ARE ISOLATED FRIDAY NIGHT EXCEPT NEAR PINE RIDGE.

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FCST AREA SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT WOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE A GOOD PORTION OF ANY
INSTABILITY EAST OF THE FCST AREA. IF THE FRONT IS WEAKER THAN SHOWN
BY THE MODELS THAN MORE CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP. AS IT STANDS
NOW...K INDICES REMAIN 25 TO 30C ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND TSTM CHANCES ARE ISOLATED.

FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25
MPH. THESE WINDS ARE PART OF A VERY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WHICH IS
TIMED TO MOVE OFF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS...WARM LOWS IN
THE 40S SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING AIDED BY A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES AT H850 FALL ABOUT 7C
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD COVER THE FCST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH AND LIFT INTO KS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
COULD ENERGIZE THE PACIFIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTL NEB SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS
BELIEVED THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
AND SKIES WOULD CLEAR BY AFTN ALL AREAS.

A DEEP UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...WILL MIGRATE
SOUTH AND BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN U.S. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DO SEVERAL THINGS. IT WILL FLUSH VERY WARM AIR OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL OPEN THE GULF AND BRING MOISTURE INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 AND IT WILL DEEPEN A SFC
LOW TO AROUND 985 MB OR LOWER BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
PRODUCING BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 35 KT AND ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.

THERE ARE WRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECM WOULD LIKE TO GENERATE
TSTMS LATE TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS
BELIEVED THE BEST FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECM STORMS COULD FIRE LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT THE FCST WILL HAVE TO WAIT ON DETAILS AS
INDICATED IN THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 4 THROUGH 8.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CEILINGS IN MVFR CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE INTO THE VFR
CATEGORIES AFTER 17/12Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW
20S. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL OCCUR AT TAF SITES AND HAVE LEFT TAFS DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 170451
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1151 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM BUT A FEW SITES MAY BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO
DECREASE THOUGH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DROPPED LOWS A FEW
DEGREES AND INCREASED CLOUDS SOUTH...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
TEMPS BEHIND IT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S WITH 30S NOT TOO FAR
AWAY. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT WILL TRIM BACK A FEW COUNTIES WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. IT`S ALSO WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL PROBABLY
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE
A FEW SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH 6PM.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
4 CORNERS REGION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...WHILE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST. OVERALL
POOR MIXING ON THURSDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT BETTER FORCING EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. RETURN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE AT PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FELT THE
NAM WAS TOO FAST WITH IT`S FRONT ARRIVING ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS TOO
SOON. WILL KEEP SATURDAY MORNING DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD I80. THERE IS SOME INSUPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBS WENT AHEAD
AND PUT OUT A WIND ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS. SOME WINDS ARE
SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUST OVER 40 MPH. ALSO LIGHT SHOWERS
OF RAIN AND SNOW NOTED NOW FROM KOFK TOWARD KSUX AND KTQE. SCT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK.
TABILITY...AND GIVEN SEASONAL TRENDS...THERE`S PROBABLY AT LEAST
A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK. MODEL DISCREPANCIES MANIFEST BY
SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH...BUT ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER...WHICH WOULD KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES WELL INTO SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPSTREAM KICKER...AM INCLINED TO GO
WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY...GFS
HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW OVERALL. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR TUE. THERE IS A WEAK
WAVE DEPICTED BY BOTH MODELS...THUS COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOMETHING DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM
BACK IN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MVFR CIGS FL015-025 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE
TOWARD 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BETWEEN
15-18Z. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY 15-20KTS
SUSTAINED GUSTS 20 TO 25KTS...GRADUALLY DROPPING TO UNDER
15KTS...THEN UNDER 12KTS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 170110 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
810 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM BUT A FEW SITES MAY BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO
DECREASE THOUGH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DROPPED LOWS A FEW
DEGREES AND INCREASED CLOUDS SOUTH...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
TEMPS BEHIND IT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S WITH 30S NOT TOO FAR
AWAY. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT WILL TRIM BACK A FEW COUNTIES WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. IT`S ALSO WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL PROBABLY
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE
A FEW SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH 6PM.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
4 CORNERS REGION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...WHILE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST. OVERALL
POOR MIXING ON THURSDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT BETTER FORCING EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. RETURN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE AT PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FELT THE
NAM WAS TOO FAST WITH IT`S FRONT ARRIVING ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS TOO
SOON. WILL KEEP SATURDAY MORNING DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD I80. THERE IS SOME INSUPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBS WENT AHEAD
AND PUT OUT A WIND ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS. SOME WINDS ARE
SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUST OVER 40 MPH. ALSO LIGHT SHOWERS
OF RAIN AND SNOW NOTED NOW FROM KOFK TOWARD KSUX AND KTQE. SCT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK.
TABILITY...AND GIVEN SEASONAL TRENDS...THERE`S PROBABLY AT LEAST
A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK. MODEL DISCREPANCIES MANIFEST BY
SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH...BUT ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER...WHICH WOULD KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES WELL INTO SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPSTREAM KICKER...AM INCLINED TO GO
WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY...GFS
HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW OVERALL. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR TUE. THERE IS A WEAK
WAVE DEPICTED BY BOTH MODELS...THUS COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOMETHING DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM
BACK IN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
04Z...THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK
TO BE PREVALENT THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 170014
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
714 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MILD WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS NO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST
CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES WITH A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
TRANSITIONS INTO A LATE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOISTURE IS ELEVATED AND LIFT
IS MARGINAL. BEST LAPSE RATES TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS AND TEMP
THROUGH THE COLUMN IS BELOW ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
BEST LIFT AREA...NW CWA. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP HOLDING TOGETHER FOR THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES
DECREASE...HOWEVER THERE IS A POCKET OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 290K/295K
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ANY ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY...IN LIQUID
FORM...INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. TEMPS REBOUND
TOMORROW ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AND EXIT EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BELOW H850
MB...WAS INDICATED IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT AND MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM UP FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. 998MB LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER SWRN SD
BY FRIDAY EVENING DRAWING THE WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. A
CHECK WITH THE MODELS INDICATED LOW CHANCES FOR HIGH CLOUDS AS
HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS.

THE MODELS DID SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE. THIS CONVECTION...IF IT DEVELOPS...WOULD BE CARRIED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. K INDICES DURING THIS TIME ARE
25C OR LESS BUT THE NAM INDICATED 750MB CAPE UP TO 300 J/KG. POPS
ARE ISOLATED FRIDAY NIGHT EXCEPT NEAR PINE RIDGE.

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FCST AREA SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT WOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE A GOOD PORTION OF ANY
INSTABILITY EAST OF THE FCST AREA. IF THE FRONT IS WEAKER THAN SHOWN
BY THE MODELS THAN MORE CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP. AS IT STANDS
NOW...K INDICES REMAIN 25 TO 30C ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND TSTM CHANCES ARE ISOLATED.

FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25
MPH. THESE WINDS ARE PART OF A VERY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WHICH IS
TIMED TO MOVE OFF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS...WARM LOWS IN
THE 40S SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING AIDED BY A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES AT H850 FALL ABOUT 7C
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD COVER THE FCST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH AND LIFT INTO KS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
COULD ENERGIZE THE PACIFIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTL NEB SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS
BELIEVED THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
AND SKIES WOULD CLEAR BY AFTN ALL AREAS.

A DEEP UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...WILL MIGRATE
SOUTH AND BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN U.S. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DO SEVERAL THINGS. IT WILL FLUSH VERY WARM AIR OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL OPEN THE GULF AND BRING MOISTURE INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 AND IT WILL DEEPEN A SFC
LOW TO AROUND 985 MB OR LOWER BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
PRODUCING BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 35 KT AND ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.

THERE ARE WRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECM WOULD LIKE TO GENERATE
TSTMS LATE TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS
BELIEVED THE BEST FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECM STORMS COULD FIRE LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT THE FCST WILL HAVE TO WAIT ON DETAILS AS
INDICATED IN THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 4 THROUGH 8.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CEILINGS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW 10 MPH. SOME MINOR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT FOG.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE
WEST WITH SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE FAR WEST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KGID 162339
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
639 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OFF DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK
EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...INTO
WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AWAY FROM US WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE TO ALSO RAPIDLY
DECREASE AND THUS OUR WIND SPEEDS WILL DIE DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY...BUT COULD SHIFT CLOSER TO DUE NORTH BY DAWN.
TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD
TO CLOUD COVER. THE DECREASING WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OFF AND COLDER AIR IS ADVECTING IN BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER MAY ACT AS A BLANKET
HELPING TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR ALL NEBRASKA ZONES AND A FEW OF OUR
NORTHERN MOST KANSAS LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE AS UNIFORM
AS FORECAST THOUGH AS ANY AREAS THAT CAN CLEAR OUT BETTER MAY DIP
COLDER THAN OUR GOING FORECAST...WHILE AREAS THAT HOLD MORE CLOUDS
COULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN OUR FORECAST. NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 30S...SO WE ARE EXPECTING LOWS TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLER TOMORROW THAN
THEY WERE TODAY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO PLACE BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND AND THUS IT MIGHT ACTUALLY
FEEL NICER FOR MANY AREAS TOMORROW. THE LIGHT WIND WILL STILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTH IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THE WIND TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THAT WARMING RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
HIGH. NORMAL HIGHS ARE NOW IN THE MID 60S AND WE SHOULD BE WELL
SHORT OF THAT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS AROUND THE MID 50S. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
OFF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO LIE WITH WEEKEND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HASNT BEEN A LOT OF
CHANGES IN THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS...WITH THE START OF THE PERIOD
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH
RIDGING IN BETWEEN A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE SRN CA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...AS THIS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ONTO THE PLAINS...AND SHOULD BE RIGHT OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE...EXPECTING THERE TO BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION...THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
STILL LOOKING AT A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS FROM THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE...WITH HIGHS SITTING IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

MOST INTERESTING TIMEFRAME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKING TO
BE THIS WEEKEND...AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO
THE REGION. BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAVING TRANSITIONED TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WEST COAST LOW HAS MOVED INLAND...AND IS
ROUGHLY LOCATED OVER WRN AZ.  THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WHILE ALSO IS
AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CO/KS BORDER.  WHILE SOME SCATTERED PRECIP A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...CHANCES WILL BE
RAMPING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESP ALONG THAT
SFC FRONT AS THE LARGER SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVY QPF FIELDS ARE POST 00Z...WITH SOME INCREASE EXPECTED WITH THE
INCREASE OF THE LLJ. MODEL DEPICTED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
VARY...AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT CANT RULE
OUT SOME AT LEAST STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH AT THIS POINT LOOKS
TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. FOR EASTER
SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION...AND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN OVER
SERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY. NOT QUITE BUYING INTO THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
SHOWING A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY...THUS RESULTING IN MORE QPF AND A MUCH SLOWER DEPARTURE.
THE 12Z GFS/GEM KEEP THINGS OPEN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO KEPT
FORECAST TRENDED THAT WAY. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING RUNS TREND BEFORE
INSERTING ANOTHER PERIOD OF POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD THE UPCOMING START OF THE WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST FOR
MON/TUES REMAIN DRY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AND GRADUALLY
MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. MORE UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES IN THE
FORECAST AS WE GET TOWARD MIDWEEK...AS A NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO/DEVELOPS OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES
REGION. POSSIBLE A SHORTWAVE PIECE OF ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWA ON WED...AND HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THE ULTIMATE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP IN
THE AREA WILL OBVIOUSLY AFFECT THINGS THIS WEEKEND...ESP
SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S FOR
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MID 60S ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING
HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FOR
TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MVFR CLOUDS ARE WORKING INTO THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND WILL
SETTLE IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CIGS RAISING DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE TRANSITIONING SE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 162335
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
635 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBS WENT AHEAD
AND PUT OUT A WIND ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS. SOME WINDS ARE
SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUST OVER 40 MPH. ALSO LIGHT SHOWERS
OF RAIN AND SNOW NOTED NOW FROM KOFK TOWARD KSUX AND KTQE. SCT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
TEMPS BEHIND IT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S WITH 30S NOT TOO FAR
AWAY. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT WILL TRIM BACK A FEW COUNTIES WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. IT`S ALSO WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL PROBABLY
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE
A FEW SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH 6PM.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
4 CORNERS REGION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...WHILE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST. OVERALL
POOR MIXING ON THURSDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT BETTER FORCING EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. RETURN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE AT PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FELT THE
NAM WAS TOO FAST WITH IT`S FRONT ARRIVING ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS TOO
SOON. WILL KEEP SATURDAY MORNING DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD I80. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY...AND GIVEN
SEASONAL TRENDS...THERE`S PROBABLY AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK. MODEL DISCREPANCIES MANIFEST BY SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS GFS IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH...BUT ECMWF IS
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER...WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES WELL INTO
SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY UPSTREAM KICKER...AM INCLINED TO GO WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY...GFS HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERALL. RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR TUE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED BY BOTH
MODELS...THUS COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOMETHING DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM BACK IN TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 04Z...THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK. MVFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE PREVALENT THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 162226
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
526 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBS WENT AHEAD
AND PUT OUT A WIND ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS. SOME WINDS ARE
SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUST OVER 40 MPH. ALSO LIGHT SHOWERS
OF RAIN AND SNOW NOTED NOW FROM KOFK TOWARD KSUX AND KTQE. SCT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
TEMPS BEHIND IT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S WITH 30S NOT TOO FAR
AWAY. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT WILL TRIM BACK A FEW COUNTIES WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. IT`S ALSO WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL PROBABLY
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE
A FEW SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH 6PM.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
4 CORNERS REGION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...WHILE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST. OVERALL
POOR MIXING ON THURSDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT BETTER FORCING EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. RETURN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE AT PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FELT THE
NAM WAS TOO FAST WITH IT`S FRONT ARRIVING ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS TOO
SOON. WILL KEEP SATURDAY MORNING DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD I80. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY...AND GIVEN
SEASONAL TRENDS...THERE`S PROBABLY AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK. MODEL DISCREPANCIES MANIFEST BY SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS GFS IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH...BUT ECMWF IS
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER...WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES WELL INTO
SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY UPSTREAM KICKER...AM INCLINED TO GO WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY...GFS HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERALL. RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR TUE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED BY BOTH
MODELS...THUS COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOMETHING DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM BACK IN TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CEILINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MVFR CEILING AT
KOFK...AND SCATTERED MENTION AT KOMA/KLNK...THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE KEPT SCATTERED MENTION UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...AS MODELS HOLD
ON TO MOISTURE AROUND 1500-2500FT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD CLEAR AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
VERY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND NOT QUITE AS GUSTY BEHIND. HAVE
SPEEDS SLACKENING TO AROUND 12-15KT AT ALL SITES LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN DECREASING FURTHER IN THE MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-053-
     067-068-090>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KLBF 162015
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MILD WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS NO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST
CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES WITH A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
TRANSITIONS INTO A LATE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOISTURE IS ELEVATED AND LIFT
IS MARGINAL. BEST LAPSE RATES TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS AND TEMP
THROUGH THE COLUMN IS BELOW ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
BEST LIFT AREA...NW CWA. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP HOLDING TOGETHER FOR THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES
DECREASE...HOWEVER THERE IS A POCKET OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 290K/295K
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ANY ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY...IN LIQUID
FORM...INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. TEMPS REBOUND
TOMORROW ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AND EXIT EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BELOW H850
MB...WAS INDICATED IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT AND MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM UP FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. 998MB LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER SWRN SD
BY FRIDAY EVENING DRAWING THE WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. A
CHECK WITH THE MODELS INDICATED LOW CHANCES FOR HIGH CLOUDS AS
HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS.

THE MODELS DID SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE. THIS CONVECTION...IF IT DEVELOPS...WOULD BE CARRIED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. K INDICES DURING THIS TIME ARE
25C OR LESS BUT THE NAM INDICATED 750MB CAPE UP TO 300 J/KG. POPS
ARE ISOLATED FRIDAY NIGHT EXCEPT NEAR PINE RIDGE.

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FCST AREA SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT WOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE A GOOD PORTION OF ANY
INSTABILITY EAST OF THE FCST AREA. IF THE FRONT IS WEAKER THAN SHOWN
BY THE MODELS THAN MORE CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP. AS IT STANDS
NOW...K INDICES REMAIN 25 TO 30C ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND TSTM CHANCES ARE ISOLATED.

FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25
MPH. THESE WINDS ARE PART OF A VERY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WHICH IS
TIMED TO MOVE OFF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS...WARM LOWS IN
THE 40S SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING AIDED BY A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES AT H850 FALL ABOUT 7C
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD COVER THE FCST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH AND LIFT INTO KS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
COULD ENERGIZE THE PACIFIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTL NEB SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS
BELIEVED THIS DISTURABANCE WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
AND SKIES WOULD CLEAR BY AFTN ALL AREAS.

A DEEP UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ALUETIANS...WILL MIGRATE
SOUTH AND BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN U.S. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DO SEVERAL THINGS. IT WILL FLUSH VERY WARM AIR OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL OPEN THE GULF AND BRING MOISTURE INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 AND IT WILL DEEPEN A SFC
LOW TO AROUND 985 MB OR LOWER BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
PRODUCING BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 35 KT AND ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.

THERE ARE WRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECM WOULD LIKE TO GENERATE
TSTMS LATE TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS
BELIEVED THE BEST FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECM STORMS COULD FIRE LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT THE FCST WILL HAVE TO WAIT ON DETAILS AS
INDICATED IN THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 4 THROUGH 8.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

COMPLEX WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 KTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME ISOLD/SCT RAIN SHOWERS DRIFTING SE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL/CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BEGINNING TO SEE
DRY AIR INFLUENCE AND RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OF THIS AREA OF PRECIP LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO GOING TO SEE SOME MVFR LOCALLY IFR
CIGS...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL NEB...INCLUDING KVTN...INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR
OVERNIGHT IS DIMINISHING AS THE LATEST NAM MODEL DOES HOLD THE
LOWER MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
AT THIS TIME EXPECT AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...MIXING WILL BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE SECOND WAVE...HOWEVER IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...WELL WEST OF THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KOAX 162012
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
TEMPS BEHIND IT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S WITH 30S NOT TOO FAR
AWAY. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT WILL TRIM BACK A FEW COUNTIES WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. IT`S ALSO WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL PROBABLY
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE
A FEW SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH 6PM.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
4 CORNERS REGION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...WHILE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST. OVERALL
POOR MIXING ON THURSDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT BETTER FORCING EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. RETURN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE AT PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FELT THE
NAM WAS TOO FAST WITH IT`S FRONT ARRIVING ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS TOO
SOON. WILL KEEP SATURDAY MORNING DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD I80. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY...AND GIVEN
SEASONAL TRENDS...THERE`S PROBABLY AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK. MODEL DISCREPANCIES MANIFEST BY SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS GFS IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH...BUT ECMWF IS
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER...WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES WELL INTO
SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY UPSTREAM KICKER...AM INCLINED TO GO WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY...GFS HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERALL. RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR TUE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED BY BOTH
MODELS...THUS COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOMETHING DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM BACK IN TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CEILINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MVFR CEILING AT
KOFK...AND SCATTERED MENTION AT KOMA/KLNK...THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE KEPT SCATTERED MENTION UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...AS MODELS HOLD
ON TO MOISTURE AROUND 1500-2500FT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD CLEAR AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
VERY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND NOT QUITE AS GUSTY BEHIND. HAVE
SPEEDS SLACKENING TO AROUND 12-15KT AT ALL SITES LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN DECREASING FURTHER IN THE MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-053-
     067-068-090>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-053-067-
     068-090>093.

  RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ051-065-
     066-078-088-089.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KGID 162003
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
303 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE STRONG WINDS OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OFF DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK
EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...INTO
WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AWAY FROM US WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE TO ALSO RAPIDLY
DECREASE AND THUS OUR WIND SPEEDS WILL DIE DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY...BUT COULD SHIFT CLOSER TO DUE NORTH BY DAWN.
TEMPERATURES ARE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD
TO CLOUD COVER. THE DECREASING WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OFF AND COLDER AIR IS ADVECTING IN BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER MAY ACT AS A BLANKET
HELPING TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO
ALLBLEND MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR ALL NEBRASKA ZONES AND A FEW OF OUR
NORTHERN MOST KANSAS LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE AS UNIFORM
AS FORECAST THOUGH AS ANY AREAS THAT CAN CLEAR OUT BETTER MAY DIP
COLDER THAN OUR GOING FORECAST...WHILE AREAS THAT HOLD MORE CLOUDS
COULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN OUR FORECAST. NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 30S...SO WE ARE EXPECTING LOWS TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLER TOMORROW THAN
THEY WERE TODAY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO PLACE BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND AND THUS IT MIGHT ACTUALLY
FEEL NICER FOR MANY AREAS TOMORROW. THE LIGHT WIND WILL STILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTH IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THE WIND TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND WE
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THAT WARMING RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
HIGH. NORMAL HIGHS ARE NOW IN THE MID 60S AND WE SHOULD BE WELL
SHORT OF THAT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS AROUND THE MID 50S. THE
LIGHT WIND WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
OFF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO LIE WITH WEEKEND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

LOOKING AT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HASNT BEEN A LOT OF
CHANGES IN THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS...WITH THE START OF THE PERIOD
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH
RIDGING IN BETWEEN A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE SRN CA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...AS THIS RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ONTO THE PLAINS...AND SHOULD BE RIGHT OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE...EXPECTING THERE TO BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION...THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
STILL LOOKING AT A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS FROM THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE...WITH HIGHS SITTING IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

MOST INTERESTING TIMEFRAME OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKING TO
BE THIS WEEKEND...AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO
THE REGION. BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAVING TRANSITIONED TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED WEST COAST LOW HAS MOVED INLAND...AND IS
ROUGHLY LOCATED OVER WRN AZ.  THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WHILE ALSO IS
AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF THE CO/KS BORDER.  WHILE SOME SCATTERED PRECIP A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...CHANCES WILL BE
RAMPING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESP ALONG THAT
SFC FRONT AS THE LARGER SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVY QPF FIELDS ARE POST 00Z...WITH SOME INCREASE EXPECTED WITH THE
INCREASE OF THE LLJ. MODEL DEPICTED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
VARY...AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT CANT RULE
OUT SOME AT LEAST STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH AT THIS POINT LOOKS
TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. FOR EASTER
SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION...AND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN OVER
SERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY. NOT QUITE BUYING INTO THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
SHOWING A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY...THUS RESULTING IN MORE QPF AND A MUCH SLOWER DEPARTURE.
THE 12Z GFS/GEM KEEP THINGS OPEN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO KEPT
FORECAST TRENDED THAT WAY. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING RUNS TREND BEFORE
INSERTING ANOTHER PERIOD OF POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD THE UPCOMING START OF THE WORK WEEK...THE FORECAST FOR
MON/TUES REMAIN DRY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AND GRADUALLY
MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. MORE UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES IN THE
FORECAST AS WE GET TOWARD MIDWEEK...AS A NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO/DEVELOPS OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES
REGION. POSSIBLE A SHORTWAVE PIECE OF ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWA ON WED...AND HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THE ULTIMATE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP IN
THE AREA WILL OBVIOUSLY AFFECT THINGS THIS WEEKEND...ESP
SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S FOR
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MID 60S ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING
HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FOR
TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

AS OF 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING THROUGH
KGRI AND THE WIND DIRECTION WAS SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY. THE
WIND WILL QUICKLY PICK UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO
OVER 30 KTS. THE WIND WILL REMAIN STRONG UNTIL AFTER SUNSET AND
THEN WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
WITH THE WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTH. A LOW
STRATO CUMULUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECT CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT WE SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS PRIOR
TO SUNSET. THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER EVEN FURTHER AFTER DARK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW THE CEILINGS WILL GO TONIGHT IS LOW. CAN
NOT RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THAT MVFR AND VFR
CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 161807
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
107 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER NORTH OF VALENTINE. THAT SYSTEM
HAD ORIGINATED IN SOUTHWEST CANADA OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW. FROM THE SURFACE LOW...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST UTAH. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT WAS
INDICATED WITH A WAVE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE FRONT
EXTENDING TO SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA. MUCH COLDER AIR WAS NORTH
OF THAT SECOND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

AS THE ALBERTA STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ON THROUGH NEBRASKA. A LOOK AT THE 295K AND 300K
THETA SURFACES SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS AND SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT (LOCAL
PRESSURE DERIVATIVE EXCEEDING 10UB/S). WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND DEGREE OF SATURATION IN THE NORTH...THAT IS THE AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES ON THROUGH
THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS ALSO
SHIFTS TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE THE MOISTURE AND LEVEL OF
SATURATION IS NOT REAL FAVORABLE. ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS CAN BE
DISCERNED IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE SECOND FRONT COMES INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THAT SHOULD LOSE ITS IMPETUS LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE THE TERMS BEGIN TO BALANCE.

IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
PRETTY WINDY WITH 20-30MPH SUSTAINED WIND GUSTING TO 35 LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND
BEGINS DECREASING. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE
RADIATION INVERSION WILL SET UP BEFORE LATE EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

REMNANT COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER NEBRASKA TO START THIS
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
BE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE DAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST BRINGING SUBSIDENT AIR INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH GOOD SUN THE SURFACE SHOULD WARM EFFICIENTLY AND
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SMALL POOL OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN 800MB AND 650MB AND WITH THE
LAPSE RATES EXPECTED...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE IN
THE MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...OR NOT COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO BE HIGH SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST SO ANY PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AS SNOW...BUT AS TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WARM...IT WILL
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. ALSO TO CONSIDER...SOME
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTH AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH COULD
HIGHLY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

AN ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF ALBERTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST EDGE MAY JUST CLIP THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SO DID ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE
DEW POINTS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD SO IF
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR AND BEGINS AS SNOW...IT SHOULD SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN BY 12Z.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN...WARMING
THE AIR AND KEEPING IT DRY. THEN ON SATURDAY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TWO
SYSTEMS CROSSING THE COUNTRY...THE FIRST BEING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH THE SECOND BEING AN TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE SPECIFICS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE...BUT THEY ALL ARE INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE LINKING UP. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...DO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL
TO VALENTINE...BUT JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FEATURES OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A DIFFERENT OUTCOME. SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY.
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW IT
BEING QUITE LIMITED SO JUST WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SLOW TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA.

WARM AND DRY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...WHERE FOCUS THEN MOVES TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER NICELY...BRINGING INCREASED
CONFIDENCE ON A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST
COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS SOLUTION COULD LEAD TO THE FIRST SEVERE EVENT OF
THE SEASON FOR THE LOCAL AREA AT MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

COMPLEX WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 KTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME ISOLD/SCT RAIN SHOWERS DRIFTING SE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL/CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BEGINNING TO SEE
DRY AIR INFLUENCE AND RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OF THIS AREA OF PRECIP LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO GOING TO SEE SOME MVFR LOCALLY IFR
CIGS...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL NEB...INCLUDING KVTN...INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR
OVERNIGHT IS DIMINISHING AS THE LATEST NAM MODEL DOES HOLD THE
LOWER MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
AT THIS TIME EXPECT AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...MIXING WILL BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE SECOND WAVE...HOWEVER IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...WELL WEST OF THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MASEK






000
FXUS63 KGID 161801
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SANDHILLS SW TO NEAR MCCOOK /ANW-LBF-
MCK-CBK/ AT 11Z.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS TO BETTER
DEPICT THE LULL APPROACHING WITH THE FRONTAL TROF. FCST DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO RUNNING ABOVE REALITY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PLUME OF
DWPTS IN THE TEENS OVER N-CNTRL KS. THE SHORT- TERM HIRES MODELS
HAD A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS. SO OBS WERE BLENDED WITH THIS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WITH ONLY A MINOR DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND A BIT WINDIER...

ALOFT: WNW FLOW ENCOMPASSED THE CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS ENTERING NEB/SD EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
BEHIND THIS EVENING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TONIGHT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN N AMERICA. THIS WILL FORCE
A PAIR OF PHASED TROFS /ONE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
THE OTHER OVER NV/ TO MOVE THRU HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SRN SD AND MOVING E WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW HEADS
FOR THE GREAT LAKES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S AND CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN EXTEND S...BUILDING
IN TONIGHT.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: BREEZY AND VERY MILD. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/GOTHENBURG-ORD/. WE DID SEE SPRINKLES AT ALLIANCE AROUND
07Z...BUT THE MID-LEVEL PATCHES OF REFLECTIVITY MOVING THRU THE
SANDHILLS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THEY MOVE E. SO THE FCST IS DRY.

TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL TROF EXITS
TO THE E. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE INFLUENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON.

CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE SPRINKLES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE FRONTAL INVERSION CASTS DOUBT
ON THIS POSSIBILITY. NOT SURE STRATOCU CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST...N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKES HIGH TEMPS DIFFICULT. USED HI-RES GEM
WHICH HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS.

WINDY AGAIN TODAY...WITH WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO NW AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST N AND W OF
THE TRI- CITIES. AN ISOLATED G40-45 IS POSSIBLE FROM ELWOOD-
LEXINGTON- GREELEY. WE NOTED THE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH AT BFF/AIA
OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT: DRY AND FAIRLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY S OF I-80. WINDS
SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 7 PM. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS
/CONSRAW/ AS IT KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR UNDER THICK CLOUD
COVER S OF I-80. LOWS PROBABLY END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL... ESPECIALLY UNDER THINNER CLOUDS TO THE N.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE TRENDING TOWARD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO A CHANCE
OF STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THURSDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRENDING FARTHER AND
FARTHER SOUTH. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE FREE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY OF
SOME FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL PERTURBATION TO THE
NORTH. I INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM MENTIONED IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FARTHER SOUTH...KEEPING LESS
CLOUD COVER AROUND.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN. I INCREASED
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS.  WE COULD GET SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT
FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE DRY IN LOWER LEVELS...SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE
THAN THIS.

SATURDAY COULD BE INTERESTING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES...KEEPING US WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HELPING TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE TRENDING HIGHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THINK IT
IS A PRUDENT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF STRONG STORMS BEING POSSIBLE IN
THE HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. I INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...BOTH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FROM ALLBLEND.
THERE IS INCREASING MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY THAT WE WILL GET
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND I WANT TO REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER CHANCES
OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS INDICATES THAT MUCAPES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN SATURDAY AND
HENCE...NOT INCLUDING THE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS FOR SUNDAY AS WE
SHOULD BE IN A POST-COLD FRONT REGIME BY THEN..

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US WARMER THAN
AVERAGE HIGHS AND DRY WEATHER. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE PLAUSIBLE
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WIND UP A BIT WARMER THAN THIS FOR THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

AS OF 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING THROUGH
KGRI AND THE WIND DIRECTION WAS SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY. THE
WIND WILL QUICKLY PICK UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO
OVER 30 KTS. THE WIND WILL REMAIN STRONG UNTIL AFTER SUNSET AND
THEN WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY
WITH THE WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTH. A LOW
STRATO CUMULUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
EXPECT CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT WE SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS PRIOR
TO SUNSET. THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER EVEN FURTHER AFTER DARK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW THE CEILINGS WILL GO TONIGHT IS LOW. CAN
NOT RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THAT MVFR AND VFR
CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 161742
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1242 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
IN NATURE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU. HOWEVER...PCPN CHANCES THRU THE NEAR TERM
PDS LOOK RATHER SMALL WITH FOCUS MORE OR LESS FOUND NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA.

FIRST ROUND COMES THIS AFTN OVER THE NRN CWA IN RELATION TO A SPUNKY
LITTLE VORT MAX CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS. STOUT LYR DIFFERENTIAL
DIVG/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL AID IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...BUT
FORCING WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
DYNAMIC FORCING THOUGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SMALL POPS
NORTH.

MEANWHILE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SD THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN THRU
THE DAY AS IT MIGRATES EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAGS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GFSLAMP METEOGRAMS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY MOVING
THRU THE OMA METRO DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS. BRUNT OF STRONG CAA
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

THUR NIGHT/FRI...PCPN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AND FOCUSED OVER THE
NRN CWA WHERE MODERATE QG FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. MAY EVEN
SEE MIX OF RA/SN PER BUFKIT. GIVEN WEAK MOISTURE...SMALL POPS
STILL BEST FIT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE TO SOME
DEGREE AS TO HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPSTREAM KICKER. THE 00Z ECMWF IS HOLDING
ONTO THIS TROUGH INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD BE THE
IMPETUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON.
AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING INCREASES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. THE 00Z GFS/GEM WOULD THEN SHIFT THIS FORCING/PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD CONTINUE
SOME THREAT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF
ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT WILL CONT WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITH THE PRECIP AND CAA ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
THE INCREASE FOR MON/TUE AS A WESTERN US RIDGE DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CEILINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MVFR CEILING AT
KOFK...AND SCATTERED MENTION AT KOMA/KLNK...THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE KEPT SCATTERED MENTION UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK...AS MODELS HOLD
ON TO MOISTURE AROUND 1500-2500FT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD CLEAR AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
VERY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND NOT QUITE AS GUSTY BEHIND. HAVE
SPEEDS SLACKENING TO AROUND 12-15KT AT ALL SITES LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN DECREASING FURTHER IN THE MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-051>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-053-067-
     068-090>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 161148
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
648 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
IN NATURE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU. HOWEVER...PCPN CHANCES THRU THE NEAR TERM
PDS LOOK RATHER SMALL WITH FOCUS MORE OR LESS FOUND NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA.

FIRST ROUND COMES THIS AFTN OVER THE NRN CWA IN RELATION TO A SPUNKY
LITTLE VORT MAX CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS. STOUT LYR DIFFERENTIAL
DIVG/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL AID IN SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...BUT
FORCING WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
DYNAMIC FORCING THOUGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SMALL POPS
NORTH.

MEANWHILE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SD THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN THRU
THE DAY AS IT MIGRATES EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DRAGS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. GFSLAMP METEOGRAMS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY MOVING
THRU THE OMA METRO DURING THE LATE AFTN HRS. BRUNT OF STRONG CAA
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

THUR NIGHT/FRI...PCPN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AND FOCUSED OVER THE
NRN CWA WHERE MODERATE QG FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. MAY EVEN
SEE MIX OF RA/SN PER BUFKIT. GIVEN WEAK MOISTURE...SMALL POPS
STILL BEST FIT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE TO SOME
DEGREE AS TO HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPSTREAM KICKER. THE 00Z ECMWF IS HOLDING
ONTO THIS TROUGH INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD BE THE
IMPETUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON.
AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING INCREASES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. THE 00Z GFS/GEM WOULD THEN SHIFT THIS FORCING/PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD CONTINUE
SOME THREAT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF
ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT WILL CONT WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITH THE PRECIP AND CAA ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
THE INCREASE FOR MON/TUE AS A WESTERN US RIDGE DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KOFK AROUND 19Z AND KOMA-
KLNK AROUND 21-22Z. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME SC MOVE INTO
KOFK ABOUT 19Z AFTER THE FRONT BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AN MVFR CIG
ATTM BUT THIS CAN`T BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE JUST MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE TO
ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE COMBINATION SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH ALONG WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ045-051>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ045-052-053-067-068-090>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
FIRE WEATHER...DEE




000
FXUS63 KGID 161137
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SANDHILLS SW TO NEAR MCCOOK /ANW-LBF-
MCK-CBK/ AT 11Z.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS TO BETTER
DEPICT THE LULL APPROACHING WITH THE FRONTAL TROF. FCST DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO RUNNING ABOVE REALITY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PLUME OF
DWPTS IN THE TEENS OVER N-CNTRL KS. THE SHORT- TERM HIRES MODELS
HAD A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS. SO OBS WERE BLENDED WITH THIS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WITH ONLY A MINOR DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND A BIT WINDIER...

ALOFT: WNW FLOW ENCOMPASSED THE CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS ENTERING NEB/SD EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
BEHIND THIS EVENING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TONIGHT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN N AMERICA. THIS WILL FORCE
A PAIR OF PHASED TROFS /ONE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
THE OTHER OVER NV/ TO MOVE THRU HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SRN SD AND MOVING E WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW HEADS
FOR THE GREAT LAKES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S AND CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN EXTEND S...BUILDING
IN TONIGHT.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: BREEZY AND VERY MILD. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/GOTHENBURG-ORD/. WE DID SEE SPRINKLES AT ALLIANCE AROUND
07Z...BUT THE MID-LEVEL PATCHES OF REFLECTIVITY MOVING THRU THE
SANDHILLS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THEY MOVE E. SO THE FCST IS DRY.

TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL TROF EXITS
TO THE E. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE INFLUENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON.

CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE SPRINKLES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE FRONTAL INVERSION CASTS DOUBT
ON THIS POSSIBILITY. NOT SURE STRATOCU CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST...N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKES HIGH TEMPS DIFFICULT. USED HI-RES GEM
WHICH HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS.

WINDY AGAIN TODAY...WITH WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO NW AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST N AND W OF
THE TRI- CITIES. AN ISOLATED G40-45 IS POSSIBLE FROM ELWOOD-
LEXINGTON- GREELEY. WE NOTED THE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH AT BFF/AIA
OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT: DRY AND FAIRLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY S OF I-80. WINDS
SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 7 PM. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS
/CONSRAW/ AS IT KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR UNDER THICK CLOUD
COVER S OF I-80. LOWS PROBABLY END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL... ESPECIALLY UNDER THINNER CLOUDS TO THE N.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE TRENDING TOWARD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO A CHANCE
OF STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THURSDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRENDING FARTHER AND
FARTHER SOUTH. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE FREE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY OF
SOME FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL PERTURBATION TO THE
NORTH. I INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM MENTIONED IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FARTHER SOUTH...KEEPING LEES
SKY COVER AROUND.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN. I INCREASED
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS.  WE COULD GET SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT
FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE DRY IN LOWER LEVELS...SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE
THAN THIS.

SATURDAY COULD BE INTERESTING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES...KEEPING US WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HELPING TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE TRENDING HIGHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THINK IT
IS A PRUDENT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF STRONG STORMS BEING POSSIBLE IN
THE HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. I INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...BOTH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FROM ALLBLEND.
THERE IS INCREASING MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY THAT WE WILL GET
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND I WANT TO REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER CHANCES
OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS INDICATES THAT MUCAPES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN SATURDAY AND
HENCE...NOT INCLUDING THE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS FOR SUNDAY AS WE
SHOULD BE IN A POST-COLD FRONT REGIME BY THEN..

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US WARMER THAN
AVERAGE HIGHS AND DRY WEATHER. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE PLAUSIBLE
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WIND UP A BIT WARMER THAN THIS FOR THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TODAY: LLWS CONTINUES THRU 14Z. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 15Z-16Z. VFR
MULTI- LAYERED MID- HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE...BUT SCT STRATOCU
WILL DEVELOP 4-5K FT 16Z-18Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPSTREAM
WINDS ARE VARIABLE. AFTER FROPA...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR. STRATOCU DISSIPATE LEAVING JUST BKN-OVC CIRRUS WHICH
WILL DESCEND FROM 25K TO 20K FT AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO 18K. WINDS
SUBSIDE BY 01Z AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 161137 CCA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SANDHILLS SW TO NEAR MCCOOK /ANW-LBF-
MCK-CBK/ AT 11Z.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS TO BETTER
DEPICT THE LULL APPROACHING WITH THE FRONTAL TROF. FCST DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO RUNNING ABOVE REALITY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PLUME OF
DWPTS IN THE TEENS OVER N-CNTRL KS. THE SHORT- TERM HIRES MODELS
HAD A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS. SO OBS WERE BLENDED WITH THIS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WITH ONLY A MINOR DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND A BIT WINDIER...

ALOFT: WNW FLOW ENCOMPASSED THE CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS ENTERING NEB/SD EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
BEHIND THIS EVENING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TONIGHT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN N AMERICA. THIS WILL FORCE
A PAIR OF PHASED TROFS /ONE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
THE OTHER OVER NV/ TO MOVE THRU HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SRN SD AND MOVING E WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW HEADS
FOR THE GREAT LAKES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S AND CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN EXTEND S...BUILDING
IN TONIGHT.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: BREEZY AND VERY MILD. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/GOTHENBURG-ORD/. WE DID SEE SPRINKLES AT ALLIANCE AROUND
07Z...BUT THE MID-LEVEL PATCHES OF REFLECTIVITY MOVING THRU THE
SANDHILLS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THEY MOVE E. SO THE FCST IS DRY.

TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL TROF EXITS
TO THE E. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE INFLUENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON.

CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE SPRINKLES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE FRONTAL INVERSION CASTS DOUBT
ON THIS POSSIBILITY. NOT SURE STRATOCU CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST...N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKES HIGH TEMPS DIFFICULT. USED HI-RES GEM
WHICH HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS.

WINDY AGAIN TODAY...WITH WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO NW AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST N AND W OF
THE TRI- CITIES. AN ISOLATED G40-45 IS POSSIBLE FROM ELWOOD-
LEXINGTON- GREELEY. WE NOTED THE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH AT BFF/AIA
OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT: DRY AND FAIRLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY S OF I-80. WINDS
SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 7 PM. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS
/CONSRAW/ AS IT KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR UNDER THICK CLOUD
COVER S OF I-80. LOWS PROBABLY END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL... ESPECIALLY UNDER THINNER CLOUDS TO THE N.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE TRENDING TOWARD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO A CHANCE
OF STRONG STORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THURSDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TRENDING FARTHER AND
FARTHER SOUTH. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE FREE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER WE DO HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY OF
SOME FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL PERTURBATION TO THE
NORTH. I INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM MENTIONED IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FARTHER SOUTH...KEEPING LESS
CLOUD COVER AROUND.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN. I INCREASED
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS.  WE COULD GET SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT
FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS
ARE QUITE DRY IN LOWER LEVELS...SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE
THAN THIS.

SATURDAY COULD BE INTERESTING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES...KEEPING US WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HELPING TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. AN APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE TRENDING HIGHER FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THINK IT
IS A PRUDENT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF STRONG STORMS BEING POSSIBLE IN
THE HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. I INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...BOTH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FROM ALLBLEND.
THERE IS INCREASING MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY THAT WE WILL GET
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND I WANT TO REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER CHANCES
OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS INDICATES THAT MUCAPES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN SATURDAY AND
HENCE...NOT INCLUDING THE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS FOR SUNDAY AS WE
SHOULD BE IN A POST-COLD FRONT REGIME BY THEN..

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL GIVE US WARMER THAN
AVERAGE HIGHS AND DRY WEATHER. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE PLAUSIBLE
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WIND UP A BIT WARMER THAN THIS FOR THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TODAY: LLWS CONTINUES THRU 14Z. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 15Z-16Z. VFR
MULTI- LAYERED MID- HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE...BUT SCT STRATOCU
WILL DEVELOP 4-5K FT 16Z-18Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPSTREAM
WINDS ARE VARIABLE. AFTER FROPA...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR. STRATOCU DISSIPATE LEAVING JUST BKN-OVC CIRRUS WHICH
WILL DESCEND FROM 25K TO 20K FT AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO 18K. WINDS
SUBSIDE BY 01Z AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KLBF 161123
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER NORTH OF VALENTINE. THAT SYSTEM
HAD ORIGINATED IN SOUTHWEST CANADA OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW. FROM THE SURFACE LOW...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST UTAH. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT WAS
INDICATED WITH A WAVE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE FRONT
EXTENDING TO SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA. MUCH COLDER AIR WAS NORTH
OF THAT SECOND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

AS THE ALBERTA STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ON THROUGH NEBRASKA. A LOOK AT THE 295K AND 300K
THETA SURFACES SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS AND SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT (LOCAL
PRESSURE DERIVATIVE EXCEEDING 10UB/S). WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND DEGREE OF SATURATION IN THE NORTH...THAT IS THE AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES ON THROUGH
THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS ALSO
SHIFTS TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE THE MOISTURE AND LEVEL OF
SATURATION IS NOT REAL FAVORABLE. ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS CAN BE
DISCERNED IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE SECOND FRONT COMES INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THAT SHOULD LOSE ITS IMPETUS LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE THE TERMS BEGIN TO BALANCE.

IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
PRETTY WINDY WITH 20-30MPH SUSTAINED WIND GUSTING TO 35 LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND
BEGINS DECREASING. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE
RADIATION INVERSION WILL SET UP BEFORE LATE EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

REMNANT COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER NEBRASKA TO START THIS
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
BE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE DAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST BRINGING SUBSIDENT AIR INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH GOOD SUN THE SURFACE SHOULD WARM EFFICIENTLY AND
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SMALL POOL OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN 800MB AND 650MB AND WITH THE
LAPSE RATES EXPECTED...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE IN
THE MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...OR NOT COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO BE HIGH SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST SO ANY PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AS SNOW...BUT AS TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WARM...IT WILL
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. ALSO TO CONSIDER...SOME
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTH AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH COULD
HIGHLY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

AN ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF ALBERTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST EDGE MAY JUST CLIP THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SO DID ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE
DEW POINTS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD SO IF
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR AND BEGINS AS SNOW...IT SHOULD SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN BY 12Z.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN...WARMING
THE AIR AND KEEPING IT DRY. THEN ON SATURDAY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TWO
SYSTEMS CROSSING THE COUNTRY...THE FIRST BEING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH THE SECOND BEING AN TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE SPECIFICS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE...BUT THEY ALL ARE INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE LINKING UP. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...DO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL
TO VALENTINE...BUT JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FEATURES OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A DIFFERENT OUTCOME. SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY.
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW IT
BEING QUITE LIMITED SO JUST WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SLOW TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA.

WARM AND DRY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...WHERE FOCUS THEN MOVES TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER NICELY...BRINGING INCREASED
CONFIDENCE ON A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST
COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS SOLUTION COULD LEAD TO THE FIRST SEVERE EVENT OF
THE SEASON FOR THE LOCAL AREA AT MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA-NEBRASKA BORDER WILL BRING
SOME 2000-3000 FEET CEILINGS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE VISUAL THRESHOLDS.

WIND IS A LITTLE MORE OF AN ISSUE WITH 340-020 AT 20-25G28-34KT
EXPECTED MOST OF TODAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER







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