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000
FXUS63 KGID 032320
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
620 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET WITH RISING
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL TRANSLATE TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IN THE PACIFIC. OUR REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A CONTINUATION OF
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE ADVECTING IN DRIER DPS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED DOWN LOW TEMPS
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
LIGHT WINDS...DEEPER MIXING IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY...JUST ABOVE
H85...WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WED NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WED NIGHT...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL N/NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING OVER
THE ROCKIES SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA. THROUGH THE REST OF THIS TIME
FRAME...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AS THE WRN LOW MOVES
ONTO THE SRN CA COAST...SET UP RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...STARTING OFF LIGHT/VARIABLE
WITH A WEAKER PATTERN IN PLACE...SRLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. FRIDAY MAY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT...WITH SPEEDS
ARND 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE AS A WARMER
AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH LOWER/MID 80S
FOR FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN
COMES UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THAT WRN UPPER LOW...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...MODEL REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE MAIN
SYSTEM HAVING SHIFTED A BIT EAST INTO ROUGHLY THE CA/NZ/AZ BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT WITH HOW FAR
EAST IT GETS. IS IT AS FAR AS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB...OR STILL MAINLY
OVER WY/CO...WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND. PART OF THE REASON FOR THE
SLOWER SHIFT IS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
AREA SWINGING S/SE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT AS WE GET
INTO SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL PUSH AND WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO...WILL START HEADING BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. HOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY /ALONG WITH DRY LINE
PLACEMENT/ MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WEATHER
ACROSS OUR CWA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TOO
MANY DETAILS YET TO BE IRONED OUT AT THIS POINT TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS WITH WHEN/WHERE...BUT IT IS A PERIOD TO MONITOR.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL ON GOING
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 70-80 FOR SAT AND MID 60S/LOW 70S FOR
SUN.

MON/TUES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS MODELS
SHOW THIS LOW AND THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT NOT EXACTLY
BEING ON THE SPEEDY SIDE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. POPS ARE
LOWER IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S/70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT



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000
FXUS63 KOAX 032255
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
555 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING INTO THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SLIDES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW AS MOISTURE LOOKS
EXTREMELY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND OVERHEAD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT SATURDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
BRINGING TSTM CHANCES ALONG WITH IT. MODELS PHASE THIS UPPER LOW
IN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY.
THIS IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE WITH THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK WHEREAS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...TURNING WINDS
TO NORTHERLY WITH GUST TO 20KT AFTER 15Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
FL050 POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 032033
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
333 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING INTO THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SLIDES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AROUND THE DEPARTING
HIGH ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW AS MOISTURE LOOKS
EXTREMELY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND OVERHEAD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT SATURDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH FORECAST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
BRINGING TSTM CHANCES ALONG WITH IT. MODELS PHASE THIS UPPER LOW
IN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY.
THIS IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE WITH THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK WHEREAS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATER TODAY THEN THIN OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE NORTH AFTER PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER



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000
FXUS63 KLBF 032027
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
327 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WARMING TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY.  A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG OVER THE SANDHILLS TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.  NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
LATEST NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT KLBF EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN ARTIFACT OF THE CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASED
BL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS/SNOW MELT.  NOT TOTALLY BUYING
INTO THE NAM AT THIS POINT...THUS NO FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR.  OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.  H85 T/S ARE SHOWN TO WARM SOME 2C OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THUS PROMOTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S CWA
WIDE.  SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE
SNOW REMAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.  WIDESPREAD FROST OR
FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT COLD PRONE EARLY VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS... WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND QUICKLY RETREAT EAST THURSDAY. WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 30KT TO 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL OPERATE THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE THURSDAY SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH UPPER
80S FRIDAY. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. FRIDAY
WOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO 13C-15C
AT 750MB...THE APPROXIMATE MIXING HEIGHT SHOWN BY THE GFS20 MODEL.
THE NAM MIXES TO 725MB WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING AS WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INCREASE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTN TSTMS ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG 700MB
CAP...10C...WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
FCST AREA AND UNDERCUT THE THERMAL RIDGE BELOW 700MB. SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH STRONG EAST WINDS.

THE MODELS THEN RESPOND BY BLOWING UP A MCS ACROSS NERN COLO
SATURDAY AFTN. THIS WOULD BE CARRIED NORTH INTO THE FCST AREA
SATURDAY EVENING. A 850MB WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH PART WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA. BY THIS TIME THE CAP HAS WEAKENED AND THE 850MB FRONT
COULD BE AN EXCELLENT FOCUS FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SWRN NEB FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE BACKING SATURDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
SEVERE WEATHER WINDOW SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH...THE GFS AND ECM MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD BE AN
EXCELLENT FOCUS FOR SFC BASED SEVERE TSTMS.

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEBRASKA SUNDAY. IF THE H850MB FRONT REMAINS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA AS INDICATED BY ALL MODELS THEN ADDITIONAL MOSTLY
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL AT THIS POINT. THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A WARM SECTOR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. THE GFS
INDICATES ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EITHER DEEP SOUTHERLY...GFS...OR
BACKED...ECM...WHICH SUPPORTS PULSE SEVERE HAIL.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING TSTM CHANCES MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE BEST RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COLD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. LATER FCSTS MAY
LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY BEING WHERE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE
IMPACTED BY FOG WOULD BE KLBF...BUT AT THAT...ONLY THE LATEST
NAM12 MODEL HINTS AT LOWERED CEILINGS. FOR THE FORECAST WILL
INCLUDE 4SM BR AT KLBF AFTER 1000Z WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT DROP LOWER
UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING CONVECTIVE RAINS WITH MODERATE RAINFALL FOR
THE WEEKEND.  THE RECENT RAINS LARGELY HAVE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
NEAR OR AT BANKFULL...ANY ADDITIONAL WATER WILL IMPACT THOSE LEVELS
FURTHER.  THE RIVER GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON
CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED AND IS
NOW DROPPING.  THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN IS NOW ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND IF NOT LATER.  ALL OTHER RIVERS GAUGES SHOWN READINGS BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JACOBS
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS




000
FXUS63 KGID 032017
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
317 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS REMAIN QUIET WITH RISING
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL TRANSLATE TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IN THE PACIFIC. OUR REGION WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A CONTINUATION OF
DRY/MILD CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE ADVECTING IN DRIER DPS TONIGHT AND TWEAKED DOWN LOW TEMPS
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
LIGHT WINDS...DEEPER MIXING IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY...JUST ABOVE
H85...WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WED NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WED NIGHT...SHOWING WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL N/NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT...WITH RIDGING OVER
THE ROCKIES SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA. THROUGH THE REST OF THIS TIME
FRAME...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AS THE WRN LOW MOVES
ONTO THE SRN CA COAST...SET UP RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...STARTING OFF LIGHT/VARIABLE
WITH A WEAKER PATTERN IN PLACE...SRLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION. FRIDAY MAY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT...WITH SPEEDS
ARND 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE AS A WARMER
AIR MASS BUILDS IN WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH LOWER/MID 80S
FOR FRIDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN
COMES UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THAT WRN UPPER LOW...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...MODEL REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE MAIN
SYSTEM HAVING SHIFTED A BIT EAST INTO ROUGHLY THE CA/NZ/AZ BORDER
AREA. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT CONTINUES...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER JUST A BIT WITH HOW FAR
EAST IT GETS. IS IT AS FAR AS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB...OR STILL MAINLY
OVER WY/CO...WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND. PART OF THE REASON FOR THE
SLOWER SHIFT IS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
AREA SWINGING S/SE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT AS WE GET
INTO SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL PUSH AND WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO...WILL START HEADING BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. HOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY /ALONG WITH DRY LINE
PLACEMENT/ MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN WEATHER
ACROSS OUR CWA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TOO
MANY DETAILS YET TO BE IRONED OUT AT THIS POINT TO GET INTO
SPECIFICS WITH WHEN/WHERE...BUT IT IS A PERIOD TO MONITOR.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL ON GOING
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 70-80 FOR SAT AND MID 60S/LOW 70S FOR
SUN.

MON/TUES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS MODELS
SHOW THIS LOW AND THE LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT NOT EXACTLY
BEING ON THE SPEEDY SIDE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. POPS ARE
LOWER IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S/70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 031742
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF WEATHER "CONCERNS" (MAINLY JUST PESKY
LIGHT RAIN IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FOG
IN THE NORTHWEST) WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD BE
A PRETTY QUIET TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD DOMINATED BY DRY
WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A CONTINUED CLIMB IN HIGH TEMPS...AND
FAIRLY LIGHT BREEZES. PER LONG TERM EARLY-MAY HIGH TEMP
AVERAGES...TODAY SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO "NORMAL" FOR THE DATE.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM:
THE NIGHT IS GENERALLY PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS
AGO...WITH MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING DRY WHILE AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED MAINLY TO OUR WEST...BUT STILL
BRUSHING INTO A FEW OF OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NAMELY
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS. HOWEVER...EVEN WELL EAST OF THIS MAIN LIGHT
RAIN BAND...A FEW ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SPRUNG UP AS FAR EAST
AS JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES. SKY COVER AT THIS HOUR IS SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE OVER THE CWA...BUT GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF IS
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHILE THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS VARIABILITY IN SKY COVER IS RESULTING
IN TRICKY HOURLY TEMP TRENDS...AS SOME CLEARER AREAS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED TO NEAR 40...WHILE CLOUDY AREAS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 40S. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY INDICATE OUR CURRENT RAIN-MAKER
IN THE FORM A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DROPPING DUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE JUST TO OUR WEST...A VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...PROMINENT FEATURES ARE HARD TO COME BY...AS BREEZES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT SPEEDS
MAINLY AT/BELOW 7 MPH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

EARLY THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY THROUGH SUNRISE):
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...MOST OF THE EXPECTED "WEATHER" DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TAKES PLACE DURING THESE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO. ANY
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF
AN ELWOOD-BELOIT LINE...ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE JUST IN CASE
MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR ARE CORRECT IN MAYBE BRINGING A FEW
ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE VICINITY OF KEARNEY/MINDEN/RED CLOUD.
AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES AFFECTED BY THIS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND 0.05" OR LESS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY START
CLEARING FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO INSERT A
GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" MENTION INTO THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
CWA FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A GREELEY-COZAD LINE...PER THE SUGGESTION OF MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR/RAP13. GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SURFACE TEMP-
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES AT THIS POINT. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
39-42 RANGE...AND THUS REMAIN "SAFE" FROM FROST CONCERNS.

DAYTIME HOURS (AFTER 7 AM):
BY THIS TIME THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE OVER WITH. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL
FORCING/SATURATION STILL LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD-DIVING DISTURBANCE FINALLY
DEPARTS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE 7-9 AM
TIME FRAME MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF MORNING SPRINKLE MENTION TO COVER THIS. ALSO AS
COVERED IN THE PRECEDING EARLY-MORNING SECTION...WILL LINGER SOME
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH AROUND 9 AM IN A FEW FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...BY AND LARGE...THIS SHOULD BE A PRETTY DARN
PLEASANT AND DRY DAY OVERALL. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STEADILY DEPART INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
/MID-SOUTH BY DAY`S END...ALLOWING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO RISE AS
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BECOMES OUR MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EVEN SO...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15
MPH...GENERALLY STRONGEST WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS
FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THINGS TO MAINLY AVERAGE "MOSTLY SUNNY"
ONCE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD FORESEE AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF "PARTLY CLOUDY" DUE TO A COMBO OF POSSIBLE
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR A BATCH
OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TEMP-
WISE...GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS/RESULTANT LIMITED MIXING
AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE EFFECT OF LINGERING MOIST GROUND...OPTED TO
PLAY A TOUCH CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUALLY NUDGED DOWN HIGHS 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN SO...HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO
THE 67-70 RANGE...WHICH WILL MARK THE MILDEST DAY IN A WEEK.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
BY THIS TIME THE ENTIRE CWA IS FIRMLY PLANTED UNDER THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE. MEANWHILE...OFF TO
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...A WAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST STATES COULD SPARK AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN IA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
THE GOING DRY FORECAST. IN FACT...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE
CLEAR...WITH FEW IF ANY ROGUE PASSING CLOUDS. AT THE
SURFACE...COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES LOW/TROUGH AND A RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD PROMOTE A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
HINTS OF A WEAK "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT EDGING INTO MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT STEADIER
LIGHT BREEZE...THINK THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE OF AN
EFFECT ON ENHANCING COOLING POTENTIAL. AIMED LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BOTTOMING OUT MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 41-44 RANGE. THAT
BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS
SNEAK A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY...TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY...AND THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR
PAST FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE TOO
FAR WEST FOR US TO SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR RAIN CHANCES GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE LARGER
UPPER LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...BUT GIVEN SHEAR AND WIND PROFILES CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. FOR THAT MATTER...CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY EITHER...AND WE
WILL ACTUALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THAT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IN STILL VERY LOW IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY GIVEN THE BIG UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIME OF YEAR...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 031742
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF WEATHER "CONCERNS" (MAINLY JUST PESKY
LIGHT RAIN IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FOG
IN THE NORTHWEST) WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD BE
A PRETTY QUIET TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD DOMINATED BY DRY
WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A CONTINUED CLIMB IN HIGH TEMPS...AND
FAIRLY LIGHT BREEZES. PER LONG TERM EARLY-MAY HIGH TEMP
AVERAGES...TODAY SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO "NORMAL" FOR THE DATE.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM:
THE NIGHT IS GENERALLY PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS
AGO...WITH MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING DRY WHILE AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED MAINLY TO OUR WEST...BUT STILL
BRUSHING INTO A FEW OF OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NAMELY
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS. HOWEVER...EVEN WELL EAST OF THIS MAIN LIGHT
RAIN BAND...A FEW ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SPRUNG UP AS FAR EAST
AS JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES. SKY COVER AT THIS HOUR IS SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE OVER THE CWA...BUT GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF IS
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHILE THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS VARIABILITY IN SKY COVER IS RESULTING
IN TRICKY HOURLY TEMP TRENDS...AS SOME CLEARER AREAS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED TO NEAR 40...WHILE CLOUDY AREAS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 40S. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY INDICATE OUR CURRENT RAIN-MAKER
IN THE FORM A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DROPPING DUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE JUST TO OUR WEST...A VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...PROMINENT FEATURES ARE HARD TO COME BY...AS BREEZES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT SPEEDS
MAINLY AT/BELOW 7 MPH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

EARLY THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY THROUGH SUNRISE):
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...MOST OF THE EXPECTED "WEATHER" DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TAKES PLACE DURING THESE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO. ANY
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF
AN ELWOOD-BELOIT LINE...ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE JUST IN CASE
MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR ARE CORRECT IN MAYBE BRINGING A FEW
ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE VICINITY OF KEARNEY/MINDEN/RED CLOUD.
AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES AFFECTED BY THIS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND 0.05" OR LESS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY START
CLEARING FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO INSERT A
GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" MENTION INTO THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
CWA FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A GREELEY-COZAD LINE...PER THE SUGGESTION OF MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR/RAP13. GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SURFACE TEMP-
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES AT THIS POINT. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
39-42 RANGE...AND THUS REMAIN "SAFE" FROM FROST CONCERNS.

DAYTIME HOURS (AFTER 7 AM):
BY THIS TIME THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE OVER WITH. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL
FORCING/SATURATION STILL LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD-DIVING DISTURBANCE FINALLY
DEPARTS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE 7-9 AM
TIME FRAME MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF MORNING SPRINKLE MENTION TO COVER THIS. ALSO AS
COVERED IN THE PRECEDING EARLY-MORNING SECTION...WILL LINGER SOME
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH AROUND 9 AM IN A FEW FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...BY AND LARGE...THIS SHOULD BE A PRETTY DARN
PLEASANT AND DRY DAY OVERALL. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STEADILY DEPART INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
/MID-SOUTH BY DAY`S END...ALLOWING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO RISE AS
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BECOMES OUR MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EVEN SO...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15
MPH...GENERALLY STRONGEST WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS
FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THINGS TO MAINLY AVERAGE "MOSTLY SUNNY"
ONCE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD FORESEE AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF "PARTLY CLOUDY" DUE TO A COMBO OF POSSIBLE
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR A BATCH
OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TEMP-
WISE...GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS/RESULTANT LIMITED MIXING
AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE EFFECT OF LINGERING MOIST GROUND...OPTED TO
PLAY A TOUCH CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUALLY NUDGED DOWN HIGHS 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN SO...HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO
THE 67-70 RANGE...WHICH WILL MARK THE MILDEST DAY IN A WEEK.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
BY THIS TIME THE ENTIRE CWA IS FIRMLY PLANTED UNDER THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE. MEANWHILE...OFF TO
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...A WAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST STATES COULD SPARK AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN IA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
THE GOING DRY FORECAST. IN FACT...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE
CLEAR...WITH FEW IF ANY ROGUE PASSING CLOUDS. AT THE
SURFACE...COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES LOW/TROUGH AND A RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD PROMOTE A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
HINTS OF A WEAK "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT EDGING INTO MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT STEADIER
LIGHT BREEZE...THINK THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE OF AN
EFFECT ON ENHANCING COOLING POTENTIAL. AIMED LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BOTTOMING OUT MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 41-44 RANGE. THAT
BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS
SNEAK A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY...TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY...AND THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR
PAST FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE TOO
FAR WEST FOR US TO SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR RAIN CHANCES GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE LARGER
UPPER LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...BUT GIVEN SHEAR AND WIND PROFILES CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. FOR THAT MATTER...CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY EITHER...AND WE
WILL ACTUALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THAT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IN STILL VERY LOW IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY GIVEN THE BIG UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIME OF YEAR...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 031710
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS. WILL LIKELY MAKE A FEW MORE CHANGES WITH
ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND 1 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.

VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH THE MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY. RIDGE AXIS IN THE WEST MEANWHILE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO
THE PLAINS REGION DURING THIS TIME. TREND TOWARD DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVING THE AREA A
CHANCE TO DRY OUT BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES FOR
MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING BEFORE
GETTING SQUEEZED AND FLATTENED BY SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW AND ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
QUITE WARM AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO SET UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS MOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA
BORDER ON SATURDAY THEN STALL IT IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM EJECTS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME BEFORE LIFTING OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN LATER TODAY THEN THIN OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE NORTH AFTER PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 031710
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH RADAR ECHOES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CAUSING SATURATION AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT BY 12Z WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIP
REMAINING. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. SO FAR
REPORTS FROM KIEN...KANW...AND KLBF OF REDUCED VISBY AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS. WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AND BL BEGINS TO MIX.

AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO EXPAND ONTO THE PLAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER TODAY WILL STILL
BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WEAK TROUGH BROUGHT A REINFORCING COOL POCKET
OF AIR. THE WARMER AIR IS NOTICED TONIGHT AS LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 40S EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTER PORTION OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN CONUS. BENEATH THE RIDGE...A PLUME OF WARM AIR
ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS 18 TO 22C/ WILL BE IN CONTROL. HAVE BOOSTED
HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO OR NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE AN END TO THE FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND...AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. AS FAR
AS EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AGREE WITH WPC THAT A WIDESPREAD .50
TO 1.00 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF THE GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT.
AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS
IMMEDIATE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY BEING WHERE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE
IMPACTED BY FOG WOULD BE KLBF...BUT AT THAT...ONLY THE LATEST
NAM12 MODEL HINTS AT LOWERED CEILINGS. FOR THE FORECAST WILL
INCLUDE 4SM BR AT KLBF AFTER 1000Z WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT DROP LOWER
UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER RECENT
RAINFALL IS STILL IMPACTING AREA RIVERS AND LOW AREAS. THE RIVER
GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED. ELSEWHERE RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...BUT ALL OTHER RIVER GAUGES SHOW READINGS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THIS COMING WEEKEND WE BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS SEEING STANDING WATER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS
HYDROLOGY...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 031139
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
639 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.

VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH THE MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY. RIDGE AXIS IN THE WEST MEANWHILE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO
THE PLAINS REGION DURING THIS TIME. TREND TOWARD DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVING THE AREA A
CHANCE TO DRY OUT BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES FOR
MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING BEFORE
GETTING SQUEEZED AND FLATTENED BY SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW AND ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
QUITE WARM AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO SET UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS MOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA
BORDER ON SATURDAY THEN STALL IT IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM EJECTS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME BEFORE LIFTING OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

11Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SOME
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
TRANSLATING FROM NE INTO KS. WHILE PATCHY FOG IS BEING OBSERVED
OVER PARTS OF E-CNTRL NE INTO SWRN IA THIS MORNING...WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. LIGHT
WLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NWLY TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 031139
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
639 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.

VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH THE MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY. RIDGE AXIS IN THE WEST MEANWHILE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO
THE PLAINS REGION DURING THIS TIME. TREND TOWARD DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVING THE AREA A
CHANCE TO DRY OUT BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES FOR
MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING BEFORE
GETTING SQUEEZED AND FLATTENED BY SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW AND ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
QUITE WARM AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO SET UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS MOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA
BORDER ON SATURDAY THEN STALL IT IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM EJECTS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME BEFORE LIFTING OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

11Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SOME
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
TRANSLATING FROM NE INTO KS. WHILE PATCHY FOG IS BEING OBSERVED
OVER PARTS OF E-CNTRL NE INTO SWRN IA THIS MORNING...WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. LIGHT
WLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NWLY TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MEAD




000
FXUS63 KGID 031136
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF WEATHER "CONCERNS" (MAINLY JUST PESKY
LIGHT RAIN IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FOG
IN THE NORTHWEST) WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD BE
A PRETTY QUIET TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD DOMINATED BY DRY
WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A CONTINUED CLIMB IN HIGH TEMPS...AND
FAIRLY LIGHT BREEZES. PER LONG TERM EARLY-MAY HIGH TEMP
AVERAGES...TODAY SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO "NORMAL" FOR THE DATE.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM:
THE NIGHT IS GENERALLY PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS
AGO...WITH MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING DRY WHILE AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED MAINLY TO OUR WEST...BUT STILL
BRUSHING INTO A FEW OF OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NAMELY
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS. HOWEVER...EVEN WELL EAST OF THIS MAIN LIGHT
RAIN BAND...A FEW ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SPRUNG UP AS FAR EAST
AS JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES. SKY COVER AT THIS HOUR IS SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE OVER THE CWA...BUT GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF IS
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHILE THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS VARIABILITY IN SKY COVER IS RESULTING
IN TRICKY HOURLY TEMP TRENDS...AS SOME CLEARER AREAS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED TO NEAR 40...WHILE CLOUDY AREAS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 40S. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY INDICATE OUR CURRENT RAIN-MAKER
IN THE FORM A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DROPPING DUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE JUST TO OUR WEST...A VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...PROMINENT FEATURES ARE HARD TO COME BY...AS BREEZES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT SPEEDS
MAINLY AT/BELOW 7 MPH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

EARLY THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY THROUGH SUNRISE):
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...MOST OF THE EXPECTED "WEATHER" DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TAKES PLACE DURING THESE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO. ANY
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF
AN ELWOOD-BELOIT LINE...ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE JUST IN CASE
MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR ARE CORRECT IN MAYBE BRINGING A FEW
ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE VICINITY OF KEARNEY/MINDEN/RED CLOUD.
AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES AFFECTED BY THIS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND 0.05" OR LESS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY START
CLEARING FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO INSERT A
GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" MENTION INTO THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
CWA FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A GREELEY-COZAD LINE...PER THE SUGGESTION OF MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR/RAP13. GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SURFACE TEMP-
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES AT THIS POINT. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
39-42 RANGE...AND THUS REMAIN "SAFE" FROM FROST CONCERNS.

DAYTIME HOURS (AFTER 7 AM):
BY THIS TIME THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE OVER WITH. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL
FORCING/SATURATION STILL LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD-DIVING DISTURBANCE FINALLY
DEPARTS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE 7-9 AM
TIME FRAME MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF MORNING SPRINKLE MENTION TO COVER THIS. ALSO AS
COVERED IN THE PRECEDING EARLY-MORNING SECTION...WILL LINGER SOME
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH AROUND 9 AM IN A FEW FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...BY AND LARGE...THIS SHOULD BE A PRETTY DARN
PLEASANT AND DRY DAY OVERALL. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STEADILY DEPART INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
/MID-SOUTH BY DAY`S END...ALLOWING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO RISE AS
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BECOMES OUR MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EVEN SO...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15
MPH...GENERALLY STRONGEST WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS
FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THINGS TO MAINLY AVERAGE "MOSTLY SUNNY"
ONCE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD FORESEE AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF "PARTLY CLOUDY" DUE TO A COMBO OF POSSIBLE
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR A BATCH
OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TEMP-
WISE...GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS/RESULTANT LIMITED MIXING
AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE EFFECT OF LINGERING MOIST GROUND...OPTED TO
PLAY A TOUCH CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUALLY NUDGED DOWN HIGHS 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN SO...HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO
THE 67-70 RANGE...WHICH WILL MARK THE MILDEST DAY IN A WEEK.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
BY THIS TIME THE ENTIRE CWA IS FIRMLY PLANTED UNDER THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE. MEANWHILE...OFF TO
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...A WAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST STATES COULD SPARK AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN IA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
THE GOING DRY FORECAST. IN FACT...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE
CLEAR...WITH FEW IF ANY ROGUE PASSING CLOUDS. AT THE
SURFACE...COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES LOW/TROUGH AND A RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD PROMOTE A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
HINTS OF A WEAK "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT EDGING INTO MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT STEADIER
LIGHT BREEZE...THINK THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE OF AN
EFFECT ON ENHANCING COOLING POTENTIAL. AIMED LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BOTTOMING OUT MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 41-44 RANGE. THAT
BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS
SNEAK A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY...TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY...AND THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR
PAST FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE TOO
FAR WEST FOR US TO SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR RAIN CHANCES GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE LARGER
UPPER LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...BUT GIVEN SHEAR AND WIND PROFILES CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. FOR THAT MATTER...CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY EITHER...AND WE
WILL ACTUALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THAT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IN STILL VERY LOW IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY GIVEN THE BIG UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIME OF YEAR...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUD
COVER AND ALMOST ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN. FURTHERMORE...SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING UNDER 12KT ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME AND EVEN UNDER 6KT
THROUGH MOST OF THESE FIRST 6 HOURS. THE OVERALL "STRONGEST"
BREEZES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...AVERAGING AROUND 11KT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 06Z...THERE COULD BE A
FEW HOURS OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)...BUT THIS
CURRENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO BE TAF-WORTHY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 031121
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH RADAR ECHOES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CAUSING SATURATION AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT BY 12Z WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIP
REMAINING. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. SO FAR
REPORTS FROM KIEN...KANW...AND KLBF OF REDUCED VISBY AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS. WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AND BL BEGINS TO MIX.

AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO EXPAND ONTO THE PLAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER TODAY WILL STILL
BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WEAK TROUGH BROUGHT A REINFORCING COOL POCKET
OF AIR. THE WARMER AIR IS NOTICED TONIGHT AS LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 40S EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTER PORTION OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN CONUS. BENEATH THE RIDGE...A PLUME OF WARM AIR
ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS 18 TO 22C/ WILL BE IN CONTROL. HAVE BOOSTED
HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO OR NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE AN END TO THE FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND...AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. AS FAR
AS EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AGREE WITH WPC THAT A WIDESPREAD .50
TO 1.00 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF THE GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT.
AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS
IMMEDIATE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION. EXPECT THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND RECENT SNOW MELT LOCATIONS TO SEE VSBY DOWN TO
AROUND A MILE...OR LESS. SO FAR VSBY HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND AND
EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE STABLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES TO A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
DURING THE DAY WHICH TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER RECENT
RAINFALL IS STILL IMPACTING AREA RIVERS AND LOW AREAS. THE RIVER
GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED. ELSEWHERE RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...BUT ALL OTHER RIVER GAUGES SHOW READINGS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THIS COMING WEEKEND WE BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS SEEING STANDING WATER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 031121
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH RADAR ECHOES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CAUSING SATURATION AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT BY 12Z WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIP
REMAINING. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. SO FAR
REPORTS FROM KIEN...KANW...AND KLBF OF REDUCED VISBY AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS. WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AND BL BEGINS TO MIX.

AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO EXPAND ONTO THE PLAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER TODAY WILL STILL
BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WEAK TROUGH BROUGHT A REINFORCING COOL POCKET
OF AIR. THE WARMER AIR IS NOTICED TONIGHT AS LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 40S EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTER PORTION OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN CONUS. BENEATH THE RIDGE...A PLUME OF WARM AIR
ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS 18 TO 22C/ WILL BE IN CONTROL. HAVE BOOSTED
HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO OR NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE AN END TO THE FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND...AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. AS FAR
AS EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AGREE WITH WPC THAT A WIDESPREAD .50
TO 1.00 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF THE GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT.
AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS
IMMEDIATE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION. EXPECT THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND RECENT SNOW MELT LOCATIONS TO SEE VSBY DOWN TO
AROUND A MILE...OR LESS. SO FAR VSBY HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND AND
EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE STABLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES TO A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
DURING THE DAY WHICH TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER RECENT
RAINFALL IS STILL IMPACTING AREA RIVERS AND LOW AREAS. THE RIVER
GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED. ELSEWHERE RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...BUT ALL OTHER RIVER GAUGES SHOW READINGS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THIS COMING WEEKEND WE BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS SEEING STANDING WATER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KGID 030910
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF WEATHER "CONCERNS" (MAINLY JUST PESKY
LIGHT RAIN IN THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FOG
IN THE NORTHWEST) WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD BE
A PRETTY QUIET TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD DOMINATED BY DRY
WEATHER/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A CONTINUED CLIMB IN HIGH TEMPS...AND
FAIRLY LIGHT BREEZES. PER LONG TERM EARLY-MAY HIGH TEMP
AVERAGES...TODAY SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO "NORMAL" FOR THE DATE.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 08Z/3AM:
THE NIGHT IS GENERALLY PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED 12-24 HOURS
AGO...WITH MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING DRY WHILE AN AREA OF STEADY
LIGHT RAIN HAS THUS FAR REMAINED MAINLY TO OUR WEST...BUT STILL
BRUSHING INTO A FEW OF OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NAMELY
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS. HOWEVER...EVEN WELL EAST OF THIS MAIN LIGHT
RAIN BAND...A FEW ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SPRUNG UP AS FAR EAST
AS JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTIES. SKY COVER AT THIS HOUR IS SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE OVER THE CWA...BUT GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF IS
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHILE THE NORTHEAST
HALF IS MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS VARIABILITY IN SKY COVER IS RESULTING
IN TRICKY HOURLY TEMP TRENDS...AS SOME CLEARER AREAS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED TO NEAR 40...WHILE CLOUDY AREAS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 40S. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY INDICATE OUR CURRENT RAIN-MAKER
IN THE FORM A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DROPPING DUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE JUST TO OUR WEST...A VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...PROMINENT FEATURES ARE HARD TO COME BY...AS BREEZES
ACROSS THE CWA ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT SPEEDS
MAINLY AT/BELOW 7 MPH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST WISE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

EARLY THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY THROUGH SUNRISE):
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...MOST OF THE EXPECTED "WEATHER" DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TAKES PLACE DURING THESE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO. ANY
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS SOUTHWEST OF
AN ELWOOD-BELOIT LINE...ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THIS LINE JUST IN CASE
MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR ARE CORRECT IN MAYBE BRINGING A FEW
ROGUE LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE VICINITY OF KEARNEY/MINDEN/RED CLOUD.
AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES AFFECTED BY THIS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOULD ONLY SEE AROUND 0.05" OR LESS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY START
CLEARING FROM NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT...OPTED TO INSERT A
GENERIC "PATCHY FOG" MENTION INTO THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
CWA FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A GREELEY-COZAD LINE...PER THE SUGGESTION OF MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR/RAP13. GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SURFACE TEMP-
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY
BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG ISSUES AT THIS POINT. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
39-42 RANGE...AND THUS REMAIN "SAFE" FROM FROST CONCERNS.

DAYTIME HOURS (AFTER 7 AM):
BY THIS TIME THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE OVER WITH. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MID LEVEL
FORCING/SATURATION STILL LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD-DIVING DISTURBANCE FINALLY
DEPARTS...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE 7-9 AM
TIME FRAME MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF MORNING SPRINKLE MENTION TO COVER THIS. ALSO AS
COVERED IN THE PRECEDING EARLY-MORNING SECTION...WILL LINGER SOME
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH AROUND 9 AM IN A FEW FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...BY AND LARGE...THIS SHOULD BE A PRETTY DARN
PLEASANT AND DRY DAY OVERALL. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STEADILY DEPART INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
/MID-SOUTH BY DAY`S END...ALLOWING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO RISE AS
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BECOMES OUR MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. EVEN SO...SUSTAINED
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15
MPH...GENERALLY STRONGEST WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS
FOR SKY COVER...EXPECT THINGS TO MAINLY AVERAGE "MOSTLY SUNNY"
ONCE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD FORESEE AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF "PARTLY CLOUDY" DUE TO A COMBO OF POSSIBLE
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR A BATCH
OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. TEMP-
WISE...GIVEN THE FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS/RESULTANT LIMITED MIXING
AND ALSO SOME POSSIBLE EFFECT OF LINGERING MOIST GROUND...OPTED TO
PLAY A TOUCH CONSERVATIVE AND ACTUALLY NUDGED DOWN HIGHS 1-2
DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN SO...HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO
THE 67-70 RANGE...WHICH WILL MARK THE MILDEST DAY IN A WEEK.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
BY THIS TIME THE ENTIRE CWA IS FIRMLY PLANTED UNDER THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE. MEANWHILE...OFF TO
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST...A WAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST STATES COULD SPARK AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
COULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN IA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
THE GOING DRY FORECAST. IN FACT...SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE
CLEAR...WITH FEW IF ANY ROGUE PASSING CLOUDS. AT THE
SURFACE...COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES LOW/TROUGH AND A RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED TO OUR WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD PROMOTE A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE OF 5-10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH EVEN
HINTS OF A WEAK "BACK DOOR" COLD FRONT EDGING INTO MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT STEADIER
LIGHT BREEZE...THINK THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE OF AN
EFFECT ON ENHANCING COOLING POTENTIAL. AIMED LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BOTTOMING OUT MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 41-44 RANGE. THAT
BEING SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS
SNEAK A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL VERY SLOWLY SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY...TO THE UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY...AND THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY DRY
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND OUR
PAST FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE TOO
FAR WEST FOR US TO SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR RAIN CHANCES GO UP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
VORT MAX ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE LARGER
UPPER LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...BUT GIVEN SHEAR AND WIND PROFILES CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. FOR THAT MATTER...CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY EITHER...AND WE
WILL ACTUALLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THAT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IN STILL VERY LOW IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY GIVEN THE BIG UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST AND
THE TIME OF YEAR...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS
UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK PREVAILING DURING THESE
FIRST 6 HOURS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF
THE TIME. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT MAINLY KEAR COULD CATCH
A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THIS LIGHT
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 25 MILES TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SO
WILL OMIT A FORMAL MENTION. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING UNDER 12KT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TIME AND EVEN UNDER 6KT THROUGH MOST OF THESE FIRST
12 HOURS. THE OVERALL "STRONGEST" BREEZES WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING AROUND 11KT FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 030852
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH RADAR ECHOES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CAUSING SATURATION AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT BY 12Z WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIP
REMAINING. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. SO FAR
REPORTS FROM KIEN...KANW...AND KLBF OF REDUCED VISBY AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS. WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AND BL BEGINS TO MIX.

AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO EXPAND ONTO THE PLAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER TODAY WILL STILL
BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WEAK TROUGH BROUGHT A REINFORCING COOL POCKET
OF AIR. THE WARMER AIR IS NOTICED TONIGHT AS LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 40S EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTER PORTION OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN CONUS. BENEATH THE RIDGE...A PLUME OF WARM AIR
ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS 18 TO 22C/ WILL BE IN CONTROL. HAVE BOOSTED
HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO OR NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE AN END TO THE FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND...AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. AS FAR
AS EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AGREE WITH WPC THAT A WIDESPREAD .50
TO 1.00 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF THE GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT.
AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS
IMMEDIATE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THR4OUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. VFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL ACCOMPANY  THE SHOWER. WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER RECENT
RAINFALL IS STILL IMPACTING AREA RIVERS AND LOW AREAS. THE RIVER
GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED. ELSEWHERE RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...BUT ALL OTHER RIVER GAUGES SHOW READINGS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THIS COMING WEEKEND WE BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS SEEING STANDING WATER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 030852
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH RADAR ECHOES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CAUSING SATURATION AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT BY 12Z WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIP
REMAINING. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. SO FAR
REPORTS FROM KIEN...KANW...AND KLBF OF REDUCED VISBY AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS. WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AND BL BEGINS TO MIX.

AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO EXPAND ONTO THE PLAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER TODAY WILL STILL
BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WEAK TROUGH BROUGHT A REINFORCING COOL POCKET
OF AIR. THE WARMER AIR IS NOTICED TONIGHT AS LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 40S EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTER PORTION OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN CONUS. BENEATH THE RIDGE...A PLUME OF WARM AIR
ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS 18 TO 22C/ WILL BE IN CONTROL. HAVE BOOSTED
HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO OR NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE AN END TO THE FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND...AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. AS FAR
AS EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AGREE WITH WPC THAT A WIDESPREAD .50
TO 1.00 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF THE GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT.
AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS
IMMEDIATE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THR4OUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. VFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL ACCOMPANY  THE SHOWER. WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER RECENT
RAINFALL IS STILL IMPACTING AREA RIVERS AND LOW AREAS. THE RIVER
GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED. ELSEWHERE RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...BUT ALL OTHER RIVER GAUGES SHOW READINGS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THIS COMING WEEKEND WE BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS SEEING STANDING WATER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 030750
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.

VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH THE MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY. RIDGE AXIS IN THE WEST MEANWHILE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO
THE PLAINS REGION DURING THIS TIME. TREND TOWARD DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVING THE AREA A
CHANCE TO DRY OUT BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES FOR
MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING BEFORE
GETTING SQUEEZED AND FLATTENED BY SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW AND ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
QUITE WARM AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO SET UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS MOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA
BORDER ON SATURDAY THEN STALL IT IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM EJECTS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME BEFORE LIFTING OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 030750
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.

VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH THE MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY. RIDGE AXIS IN THE WEST MEANWHILE BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO
THE PLAINS REGION DURING THIS TIME. TREND TOWARD DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVING THE AREA A
CHANCE TO DRY OUT BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES FOR
MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING BEFORE
GETTING SQUEEZED AND FLATTENED BY SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW AND ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
QUITE WARM AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO SET UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS MOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA
BORDER ON SATURDAY THEN STALL IT IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM EJECTS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME BEFORE LIFTING OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 030607
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
107 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A WELCOME
RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CANADA...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. AT
THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE STILL BELOW AVERAGE...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE WARMER THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS CONTINUING TO SLIDE BASICALLY DUE SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
BETWEEN 00-12Z TONIGHT...KEPT THUNDER MENTION OUT WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE MAIN CHANCES REMAIN ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY
183...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOSE CHANCES
ARENT THAT GREAT. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW
REMAINS DRY.

THE WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN...AND WEAKER WINDS...LOOKS TO REMAIN
THE STORY OVERNIGHT. WHILE WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEED EVEN INTO TOMORROW...TOPPING OUT AROUND
10-15 MPH. ONCE THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE SYSTEM PASSES...EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW...WITH A BUMP UP IN
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK...THEN
CHANCES FOR TSTMS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS OFF THE COAST IN THE PACIFIC AND TO THE EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF. THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL
MIGRATE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH A WARMER
AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION. MID LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...REACHING THE UPPER TEENS BY FRIDAY
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE
70S...NEARING 80F BY FRIDAY.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS BREAKS DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FM CANADA AND AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TRANSITIONS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN
SYSTEM AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN SFC LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONS ATTM AS WELL AS TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS. DETAILS OF THIS WILL
BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOK FOR RETURN OF SOME WET
WEATHER AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK PREVAILING DURING THESE
FIRST 6 HOURS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF
THE TIME. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT MAINLY KEAR COULD CATCH
A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THIS LIGHT
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 25 MILES TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SO
WILL OMIT A FORMAL MENTION. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING UNDER 12KT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TIME AND EVEN UNDER 6KT THROUGH MOST OF THESE FIRST
12 HOURS. THE OVERALL "STRONGEST" BREEZES WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING AROUND 11KT FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 030457 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1157 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MIDLEVEL FGEN...WHICH IS
SHOWN TO BEGIN OT IMPACT OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE 21-00Z
TIMEFRAME THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN IS
FAIRLY STRONG...BUT SUB CLOUD MOISTURE IS LACKING...AT LEAST
INITIALLY.  IT/LL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO GET SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE
FOR QPF...THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE
WAVE IS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE THREAT OF QPF SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA.  THERE STILL IS A HINT
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDER WORDING...ALBEIT ISOLATED
AT BEST. AFTER THE LOSS OF INSOLATION...SHOWERS OF RAIN SHOULD
PREVAIL.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A PRODUCT OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH INDICATES WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SUB FREEZING LOWS
WILL BE NW OF THE SNOW PACK /NORTHERN GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTY/
WHERE WEAK CAA...THE POSSIBILITY OF CLEARING SKIES LATE...AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR A SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...BUT AT
THAT...THE FORECAST LOWS ONLY SUGGEST 34F AT THE COOLEST.  WILL
MONITOR.

UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ON
TUESDAY...WITH WAA FROM THE WEST.  H85 T/S WILL WARM SOME 3-5C FROM
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NIL
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AMPLIFIED NRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH H85
TEMPS 11C- 17C...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH SOUTH
WINDS RETURNING AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

LONG RANGE...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED
DURING THIS TIME. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SWRN U.S FRIDAY TO THE
PLAINS REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 80 FRIDAY...THEN COOLER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THR4OUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. VFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL ACCIOMPANY THE SHOWER. WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AND SHOULD NOT CREATE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM WHAT IS ALREADY THERE. THE UPPER SECTION
OF THE ELKHORN RIVER CONTINUES TO SEE MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS.
THE GAUGE AT ATKINSON HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND IS JUST BELOW 8
FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET. OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH NO GAUGES ARE FLOODING OR FORECAST TO FLOOD AT
THIS TIME. MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
PONDING...AND GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE ON THE RISE. THIS WEEK IS
FORECAST DRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 030014
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
714 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MIDLEVEL FGEN...WHICH IS
SHOWN TO BEGIN OT IMPACT OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE 21-00Z
TIMEFRAME THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN IS
FAIRLY STRONG...BUT SUB CLOUD MOISTURE IS LACKING...AT LEAST
INITIALLY.  IT/LL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO GET SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE
FOR QPF...THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE
WAVE IS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE THREAT OF QPF SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA.  THERE STILL IS A HINT
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDER WORDING...ALBEIT ISOLATED
AT BEST. AFTER THE LOSS OF INSOLATION...SHOWERS OF RAIN SHOULD
PREVAIL.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A PRODUCT OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH INDICATES WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SUB FREEZING LOWS
WILL BE NW OF THE SNOW PACK /NORTHERN GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTY/
WHERE WEAK CAA...THE POSSIBILITY OF CLEARING SKIES LATE...AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR A SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...BUT AT
THAT...THE FORECAST LOWS ONLY SUGGEST 34F AT THE COOLEST.  WILL
MONITOR.

UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ON
TUESDAY...WITH WAA FROM THE WEST.  H85 T/S WILL WARM SOME 3-5C FROM
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NIL
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AMPLIFIED NRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH H85
TEMPS 11C- 17C...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH SOUTH
WINDS RETURNING AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

LONG RANGE...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED
DURING THIS TIME. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SWRN U.S FRIDAY TO THE
PLAINS REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 80 FRIDAY...THEN COOLER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AREAS OF RAINSHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RAINSHOWERS BRIEFLY DROPPING
VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR CATEGORIES. AFTER THE SHOWERS CLEARING
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN MVFR CATEGORIES ALONG WITH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS.
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AND SHOULD NOT CREATE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM WHAT IS ALREADY THERE. THE UPPER SECTION
OF THE ELKHORN RIVER CONTINUES TO SEE MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS.
THE GAUGE AT ATKINSON HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND IS JUST BELOW 8
FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET. OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH NO GAUGES ARE FLOODING OR FORECAST TO FLOOD AT
THIS TIME. MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
PONDING...AND GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE ON THE RISE. THIS WEEK IS
FORECAST DRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 022356
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
656 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IF ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL AFFECT OR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/METARS/WSR-88D...HEATING TODAY INTO
THE 60S HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A STRONG 90KT JET IS DIVING SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE
OF POCKETS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND
OMEGA INCREASES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 4KM
WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND TAKES THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MENTIONED
SPRINKLES FOR NOW AND EVENING SHIFT CAN ASSESS HOW THESE ARE
HOLDING TOGETHER.

TUESDAY...CLOUDS COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE
SOUTH...OTHERWISE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HEATING TO AROUND 70
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW CUMULUS TO RE-DEVELOP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...AFFECTING WISCONSIN.
THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. THERE IS BETTER H7
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS.  FOR NOW HAVE THE
CLOUDS MENTIONED AND CAN ADD POPS IF MOISTURE IS SUPPORTED FARTHER
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED ALONG WITH MORE RAIN LATER
THIS WEEKEND...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE TOPS THE
RIDGE AND COULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK QUITE MILD FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE MODELS...SO WILL BROADBRUSH CHANCE
POPS...AND REFINE AS THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE ON HIGHER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 022356
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
656 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IF ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL AFFECT OR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/METARS/WSR-88D...HEATING TODAY INTO
THE 60S HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A STRONG 90KT JET IS DIVING SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE
OF POCKETS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND
OMEGA INCREASES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 4KM
WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND TAKES THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MENTIONED
SPRINKLES FOR NOW AND EVENING SHIFT CAN ASSESS HOW THESE ARE
HOLDING TOGETHER.

TUESDAY...CLOUDS COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE
SOUTH...OTHERWISE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HEATING TO AROUND 70
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW CUMULUS TO RE-DEVELOP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...AFFECTING WISCONSIN.
THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. THERE IS BETTER H7
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS.  FOR NOW HAVE THE
CLOUDS MENTIONED AND CAN ADD POPS IF MOISTURE IS SUPPORTED FARTHER
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED ALONG WITH MORE RAIN LATER
THIS WEEKEND...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE TOPS THE
RIDGE AND COULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK QUITE MILD FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE MODELS...SO WILL BROADBRUSH CHANCE
POPS...AND REFINE AS THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE ON HIGHER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 022339
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
639 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A WELCOME
RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CANADA...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. AT
THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE STILL BELOW AVERAGE...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE WARMER THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS CONTINUING TO SLIDE BASICALLY DUE SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
BETWEEN 00-12Z TONIGHT...KEPT THUNDER MENTION OUT WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE MAIN CHANCES REMAIN ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY
183...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOSE CHANCES
ARENT THAT GREAT. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW
REMAINS DRY.

THE WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN...AND WEAKER WINDS...LOOKS TO REMAIN
THE STORY OVERNIGHT. WHILE WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEED EVEN INTO TOMORROW...TOPPING OUT AROUND
10-15 MPH. ONCE THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE SYSTEM PASSES...EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW...WITH A BUMP UP IN
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK...THEN
CHANCES FOR TSTMS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS OFF THE COAST IN THE PACIFIC AND TO THE EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF. THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL
MIGRATE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH A WARMER
AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION. MID LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...REACHING THE UPPER TEENS BY FRIDAY
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE
70S...NEARING 80F BY FRIDAY.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS BREAKS DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FM CANADA AND AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TRANSITIONS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN
SYSTEM AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN SFC LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONS ATTM AS WELL AS TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS. DETAILS OF THIS WILL
BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOK FOR RETURN OF SOME WET
WEATHER AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SD/NE BORDERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK NEAR 6KFT. BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE...EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10KTS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TUESDAY. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KOAX 022038
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
338 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IF ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL AFFECT OR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/METARS/WSR-88D...HEATING TODAY INTO
THE 60S HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A STRONG 90KT JET IS DIVING SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE
OF POCKETS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND
OMEGA INCREASES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 4KM
WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND TAKES THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MENTIONED
SPRINKLES FOR NOW AND EVENING SHIFT CAN ASSESS HOW THESE ARE
HOLDING TOGETHER.

TUESDAY...CLOUDS COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE
SOUTH...OTHERWISE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HEATING TO AROUND 70
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW CUMULUS TO RE-DEVELOP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...AFFECTING WISCONSIN.
THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. THERE IS BETTER H7
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS.  FOR NOW HAVE THE
CLOUDS MENTIONED AND CAN ADD POPS IF MOISTURE IS SUPPORTED FARTHER
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED ALONG WITH MORE RAIN LATER
THIS WEEKEND...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE TOPS THE
RIDGE AND COULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK QUITE MILD FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE MODELS...SO WILL BROADBRUSH CHANCE
POPS...AND REFINE AS THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE ON HIGHER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SCT-BKN DECK
AROUND FL050-060 IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND AN ISO SHRA CAN`T BE
RULED OUT IN THE AREA...BUT THE CHCS STILL APPEAR TO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAF SITE. A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THEN DECREASING ON TUE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KGID 022037
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A WELCOME
RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CANADA...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. AT
THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE STILL BELOW AVERAGE...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE WARMER THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS CONTINUING TO SLIDE BASICALLY DUE SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
BETWEEN 00-12Z TONIGHT...KEPT THUNDER MENTION OUT WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE MAIN CHANCES REMAIN ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY
183...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOSE CHANCES
ARENT THAT GREAT. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW
REMAINS DRY.

THE WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN...AND WEAKER WINDS...LOOKS TO REMAIN
THE STORY OVERNIGHT. WHILE WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEED EVEN INTO TOMORROW...TOPPING OUT AROUND
10-15 MPH. ONCE THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE SYSTEM PASSES...EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW...WITH A BUMP UP IN
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK...THEN
CHANCES FOR TSTMS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS OFF THE COAST IN THE PACIFIC AND TO THE EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF. THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL
MIGRATE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH A WARMER
AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION. MID LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...REACHING THE UPPER TEENS BY FRIDAY
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE
70S...NEARING 80F BY FRIDAY.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS BREAKS DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FM CANADA AND AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TRANSITIONS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN
SYSTEM AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN SFC LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONS ATTM AS WELL AS TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS. DETAILS OF THIS WILL
BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOK FOR RETURN OF SOME WET
WEATHER AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING USHERING IN MORE
NWRLY WINDS TO END THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 10KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 022037
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A WELCOME
RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CANADA...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. AT
THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE STILL BELOW AVERAGE...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE WARMER THAN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH 3 PM OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE
DAKOTAS CONTINUING TO SLIDE BASICALLY DUE SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
BETWEEN 00-12Z TONIGHT...KEPT THUNDER MENTION OUT WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE MAIN CHANCES REMAIN ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY
183...BUT WITHOUT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THOSE CHANCES
ARENT THAT GREAT. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW
REMAINS DRY.

THE WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN...AND WEAKER WINDS...LOOKS TO REMAIN
THE STORY OVERNIGHT. WHILE WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEED EVEN INTO TOMORROW...TOPPING OUT AROUND
10-15 MPH. ONCE THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE SYSTEM PASSES...EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW...WITH A BUMP UP IN
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK...THEN
CHANCES FOR TSTMS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS OFF THE COAST IN THE PACIFIC AND TO THE EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF. THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL
MIGRATE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH A WARMER
AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION. MID LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...REACHING THE UPPER TEENS BY FRIDAY
AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE
70S...NEARING 80F BY FRIDAY.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS BREAKS DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST FM CANADA AND AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TRANSITIONS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN
SYSTEM AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN SFC LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONS ATTM AS WELL AS TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS. DETAILS OF THIS WILL
BE RESOLVED AS THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOK FOR RETURN OF SOME WET
WEATHER AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING USHERING IN MORE
NWRLY WINDS TO END THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 10KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KLBF 021938
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
238 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MIDLEVEL FGEN...WHICH IS
SHOWN TO BEGIN OT IMPACT OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE 21-00Z
TIMEFRAME THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN IS
FAIRLY STRONG...BUT SUB CLOUD MOISTURE IS LACKING...AT LEAST
INITIALLY.  IT/LL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO GET SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE
FOR QPF...THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE
WAVE IS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE THREAT OF QPF SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA.  THERE STILL IS A HINT
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDER WORDING...ALBEIT ISOLATED
AT BEST. AFTER THE LOSS OF INSOLATION...SHOWERS OF RAIN SHOULD
PREVAIL.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A PRODUCT OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH INDICATES WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SUB FREEZING LOWS
WILL BE NW OF THE SNOW PACK /NORTHERN GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTY/
WHERE WEAK CAA...THE POSSIBILITY OF CLEARING SKIES LATE...AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR A SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...BUT AT
THAT...THE FORECAST LOWS ONLY SUGGEST 34F AT THE COOLEST.  WILL
MONITOR.

UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ON
TUESDAY...WITH WAA FROM THE WEST.  H85 T/S WILL WARM SOME 3-5C FROM
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NIL
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AMPLIFIED NRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH H85
TEMPS 11C- 17C...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH SOUTH
WINDS RETURNING AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

LONG RANGE...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED
DURING THIS TIME. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SWRN U.S FRIDAY TO THE
PLAINS REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 80 FRIDAY...THEN COOLER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 FOR BOTH KVTN AND
KLBF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE SKC THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. COULD LOCALLY SEE MVFR VSBY FROM
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH TIMING SHOULD BE BRIEF.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AND SHOULD NOT CREATE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM WHAT IS ALREADY THERE. THE UPPER SECTION
OF THE ELKHORN RIVER CONTINUES TO SEE MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS.
THE GAUGE AT ATKINSON HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND IS JUST BELOW 8
FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET. OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH NO GAUGES ARE FLOODING OR FORECAST TO FLOOD AT
THIS TIME. MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
PONDING...AND GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE ON THE RISE. THIS WEEK IS
FORECAST DRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 021938
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
238 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MIDLEVEL FGEN...WHICH IS
SHOWN TO BEGIN OT IMPACT OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE 21-00Z
TIMEFRAME THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN IS
FAIRLY STRONG...BUT SUB CLOUD MOISTURE IS LACKING...AT LEAST
INITIALLY.  IT/LL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO GET SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE
FOR QPF...THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE
WAVE IS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE THREAT OF QPF SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA.  THERE STILL IS A HINT
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDER WORDING...ALBEIT ISOLATED
AT BEST. AFTER THE LOSS OF INSOLATION...SHOWERS OF RAIN SHOULD
PREVAIL.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A PRODUCT OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH INDICATES WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SUB FREEZING LOWS
WILL BE NW OF THE SNOW PACK /NORTHERN GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTY/
WHERE WEAK CAA...THE POSSIBILITY OF CLEARING SKIES LATE...AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR A SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...BUT AT
THAT...THE FORECAST LOWS ONLY SUGGEST 34F AT THE COOLEST.  WILL
MONITOR.

UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ON
TUESDAY...WITH WAA FROM THE WEST.  H85 T/S WILL WARM SOME 3-5C FROM
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NIL
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AMPLIFIED NRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH H85
TEMPS 11C- 17C...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH SOUTH
WINDS RETURNING AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

LONG RANGE...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED
DURING THIS TIME. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SWRN U.S FRIDAY TO THE
PLAINS REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 80 FRIDAY...THEN COOLER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 FOR BOTH KVTN AND
KLBF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE SKC THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. COULD LOCALLY SEE MVFR VSBY FROM
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH TIMING SHOULD BE BRIEF.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AND SHOULD NOT CREATE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM WHAT IS ALREADY THERE. THE UPPER SECTION
OF THE ELKHORN RIVER CONTINUES TO SEE MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS.
THE GAUGE AT ATKINSON HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND IS JUST BELOW 8
FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET. OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH NO GAUGES ARE FLOODING OR FORECAST TO FLOOD AT
THIS TIME. MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
PONDING...AND GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE ON THE RISE. THIS WEEK IS
FORECAST DRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KGID 021741
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FROST ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OVERVIEW...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND ALLOWED
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...AFTER A COLD MORNING START AND SEVERAL COOL DAYS
WE WILL WARM UP NICELY THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING HIGHS
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. ALSO HAVING ONLY A LIGHT WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT TODAY. WE HAVE A LITTLE CLIPPER COMING
DOWN OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. MOST OF
ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IN OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES.

FROST ADVISORY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLEARLY BE IN THE FROST
FORMATION ZONE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 31 AND 36 IN THE
AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED THE FROST ADVISORY. WE WERE ALREADY
CALLING FOR FROST IN THESE AREAS DURING PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING IT IN OUR HWO PRODUCT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
THERE WAS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE CLOUDS WOULD CLEAR OUT
HURTING CONFIDENCE ON THE EARLIER FROST FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN
NOW THE PRETTY MUCH CERTAINTY OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ACTUAL FROST HEADLINE
SHOULD ANYONE BE WAITING FOR A HEADLINE TO ACT OR GETTING UP EARLY
TO CHECK ON SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

SHOWERS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS IS LACKING MOISTURE AND WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BASED ON MOST MAJOR FORECAST MODELS. MUCAPE VALUES
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT BETWEEN 50-100 J/KG IN OUR NORTHWEST. SO SURE
WE COULD HAVE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE
MONTH OF MAY THAT HARDLY SEEMS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND WILL JUST GO WITH THE MORE LIKELY
DOMINATE MODE OF RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN WE ARE ONLY CALLING FOR A
NARROW SLIVER OF GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES NEARER THE SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:
IN THE AFTERMATH OF A VERY WET/IN SOME PLACES RECORD-BREAKING
APRIL...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD BE JUST WHAT THE
DOCTOR (FARMER?) ORDERED TO MAKE SOME DECENT HEADWAY ON WARMING UP
AND DRYING OUT. THAT BEING SAID...FOR THOSE WHO REALLY WANTED A
LONGER-DURATION DRY PERIOD...WELL THAT MAY NOT BE IN THE
CARDS...AS NEXT WEEKEND ALREADY CONTAINS SOME HALFWAY DECENT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME
THAT WE HAVE KEPT THESE WEEKEND CHANCES (POPS) BELOW "LIKELY"
THRESHOLDS THOUGH. STICKING WITH THE WEEKEND PRECIP
CHANCES...AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) FOR SHYING
AWAY FROM INTRODUCING ANY FORMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREAS FOR
THIS DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME
RANGE...BUT EARLY INDICATIONS DO SUGGEST WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT`S HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THESE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF SPRING CHILL...BUT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR EARLY MAY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. ALONG THOSE LINES...WE ARE PLEASED TO REPORT
THAT EACH OF THESE 6 DAYS CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMAL...WITH MAINLY LOW 70S TUES-WED GIVING WAY TO THE
MID-70S/NEAR 80 RANGE THURS-SAT BEFORE POSSIBLY COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO 70 BY SUNDAY ASSUMING PRECIPITATION IS AROUND. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
FROST/FREEZE BEYOND THE ONGOING ONE...WITH LOWS HOLDING UP IN THE
40S ON TUES/WED NIGHTS AND THEN MAINLY 50S THURS-SAT NIGHTS. OF
COURSE...AS EVIDENCED JUST A FEW YEARS AGO...WE TRULY CANNOT START
"GUARANTEEING" WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS ON FROST/FREEZE UNTIL AT
LEAST AROUND MAY 20TH.

POSSIBLE HAZARDS THAT ARE INCLUDED OR MAY NEED INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID):

AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE ONLY HWO INCLUSION IS THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH NO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
SHOWING ANY "OBVIOUS" CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. PER LOCAL
POLICY...HAVE REFRAINED FROM TALKING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES BEYOND
DAY 3 WITHOUT BEING OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...WILL FINISH WITH SOME BRIEF DAY-
TO-DAY COMMENTS FOR THOSE INTERESTED:

TUESDAY DAYTIME: WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE CWA IS DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THERE ARE SOME
SUBTLE HINTS PER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/ECMWF THAT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY LINGER OUT OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE VERY FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AS THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE LOCAL AREA. THAT BEING
SAID...CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING PAST SUNRISE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" OUR GOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THIS SHOULD BE OUR
FIRST DAY OF NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN A WEEK! EVEN BEHIND A
PASSING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED AFTERNOON
BREEZES TO EXCEED 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT: EXPANSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES. DESPITE CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT BUT STEADY NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPS
UP INTO THE MID 40S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: DRY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY UNDER THE DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. DAYTIME WINDS COULD BE A
BIT BREEZY FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE
NORTH LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HWY 281.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: SHOULD STILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL START TO
INDUCE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES. TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY
BREACH 80 ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA BUT HAVE NOT AIMED
QUITE THIS WARM YET.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION...MODELS SUGGEST A
"LEAD WAVE" WILL RIDE UP TOWARD OUR AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...WE HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THIS
ENTIRE 24-HOUR PERIOD...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT LATER FORECASTS
MAY HAVE TO RE-CONSIDER ADDING SOME SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
BACK INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
FAR...FAR FROM CERTAIN...BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT BY DAY 6-7 STANDARDS IN LIFTING THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING UP INTO THE LOCAL CENTRAL
PLAINS AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT. IT`S STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY DAYTIME MIGHT END UP BEING LARGELY DRY...AND
THUS HAVE ONLY SLIGHT 20 POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THAT
DAY...BEFORE MODESTLY HIGHER...MAINLY 30-40 POPS ARRIVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING USHERING IN MORE
NWRLY WINDS TO END THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 10KTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

REGARDING THE INCREDIBLY WET LATTER HALF OF APRIL (RECORD-BREAKING
FOR SOME PLACES):

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE ISSUED A SERIES OF
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS (PNSGID) AND FACEBOOK/TWITTER POSTS
TO HIGHLIGHT SOME STATS REGARDING OUR NOW-FINISHED VERY WET APRIL.
AMONG OTHER THINGS...THIS WAS THE WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD AT
OFFICIAL NWS STATIONS AT KEARNEY...HOLDREGE AND SMITH CENTER. MOST
PLACES NEAR/WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR MEASURED ANYWHERE FROM
200-400 PERCENT OF NORMAL APRIL RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER TO THESE
AFOREMENTIONED PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 021741
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FROST ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OVERVIEW...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND ALLOWED
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...AFTER A COLD MORNING START AND SEVERAL COOL DAYS
WE WILL WARM UP NICELY THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING HIGHS
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. ALSO HAVING ONLY A LIGHT WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT TODAY. WE HAVE A LITTLE CLIPPER COMING
DOWN OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. MOST OF
ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IN OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES.

FROST ADVISORY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLEARLY BE IN THE FROST
FORMATION ZONE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 31 AND 36 IN THE
AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED THE FROST ADVISORY. WE WERE ALREADY
CALLING FOR FROST IN THESE AREAS DURING PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING IT IN OUR HWO PRODUCT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
THERE WAS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE CLOUDS WOULD CLEAR OUT
HURTING CONFIDENCE ON THE EARLIER FROST FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN
NOW THE PRETTY MUCH CERTAINTY OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ACTUAL FROST HEADLINE
SHOULD ANYONE BE WAITING FOR A HEADLINE TO ACT OR GETTING UP EARLY
TO CHECK ON SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

SHOWERS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS IS LACKING MOISTURE AND WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BASED ON MOST MAJOR FORECAST MODELS. MUCAPE VALUES
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT BETWEEN 50-100 J/KG IN OUR NORTHWEST. SO SURE
WE COULD HAVE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE
MONTH OF MAY THAT HARDLY SEEMS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND WILL JUST GO WITH THE MORE LIKELY
DOMINATE MODE OF RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN WE ARE ONLY CALLING FOR A
NARROW SLIVER OF GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES NEARER THE SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:
IN THE AFTERMATH OF A VERY WET/IN SOME PLACES RECORD-BREAKING
APRIL...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD BE JUST WHAT THE
DOCTOR (FARMER?) ORDERED TO MAKE SOME DECENT HEADWAY ON WARMING UP
AND DRYING OUT. THAT BEING SAID...FOR THOSE WHO REALLY WANTED A
LONGER-DURATION DRY PERIOD...WELL THAT MAY NOT BE IN THE
CARDS...AS NEXT WEEKEND ALREADY CONTAINS SOME HALFWAY DECENT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME
THAT WE HAVE KEPT THESE WEEKEND CHANCES (POPS) BELOW "LIKELY"
THRESHOLDS THOUGH. STICKING WITH THE WEEKEND PRECIP
CHANCES...AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) FOR SHYING
AWAY FROM INTRODUCING ANY FORMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREAS FOR
THIS DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME
RANGE...BUT EARLY INDICATIONS DO SUGGEST WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT`S HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THESE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF SPRING CHILL...BUT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR EARLY MAY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. ALONG THOSE LINES...WE ARE PLEASED TO REPORT
THAT EACH OF THESE 6 DAYS CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMAL...WITH MAINLY LOW 70S TUES-WED GIVING WAY TO THE
MID-70S/NEAR 80 RANGE THURS-SAT BEFORE POSSIBLY COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO 70 BY SUNDAY ASSUMING PRECIPITATION IS AROUND. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
FROST/FREEZE BEYOND THE ONGOING ONE...WITH LOWS HOLDING UP IN THE
40S ON TUES/WED NIGHTS AND THEN MAINLY 50S THURS-SAT NIGHTS. OF
COURSE...AS EVIDENCED JUST A FEW YEARS AGO...WE TRULY CANNOT START
"GUARANTEEING" WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS ON FROST/FREEZE UNTIL AT
LEAST AROUND MAY 20TH.

POSSIBLE HAZARDS THAT ARE INCLUDED OR MAY NEED INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID):

AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE ONLY HWO INCLUSION IS THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH NO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
SHOWING ANY "OBVIOUS" CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. PER LOCAL
POLICY...HAVE REFRAINED FROM TALKING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES BEYOND
DAY 3 WITHOUT BEING OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...WILL FINISH WITH SOME BRIEF DAY-
TO-DAY COMMENTS FOR THOSE INTERESTED:

TUESDAY DAYTIME: WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE CWA IS DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THERE ARE SOME
SUBTLE HINTS PER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/ECMWF THAT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY LINGER OUT OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE VERY FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AS THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE LOCAL AREA. THAT BEING
SAID...CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING PAST SUNRISE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" OUR GOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THIS SHOULD BE OUR
FIRST DAY OF NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN A WEEK! EVEN BEHIND A
PASSING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED AFTERNOON
BREEZES TO EXCEED 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT: EXPANSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES. DESPITE CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT BUT STEADY NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPS
UP INTO THE MID 40S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: DRY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY UNDER THE DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. DAYTIME WINDS COULD BE A
BIT BREEZY FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE
NORTH LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HWY 281.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: SHOULD STILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL START TO
INDUCE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES. TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY
BREACH 80 ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA BUT HAVE NOT AIMED
QUITE THIS WARM YET.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION...MODELS SUGGEST A
"LEAD WAVE" WILL RIDE UP TOWARD OUR AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...WE HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THIS
ENTIRE 24-HOUR PERIOD...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT LATER FORECASTS
MAY HAVE TO RE-CONSIDER ADDING SOME SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
BACK INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
FAR...FAR FROM CERTAIN...BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT BY DAY 6-7 STANDARDS IN LIFTING THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING UP INTO THE LOCAL CENTRAL
PLAINS AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT. IT`S STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY DAYTIME MIGHT END UP BEING LARGELY DRY...AND
THUS HAVE ONLY SLIGHT 20 POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THAT
DAY...BEFORE MODESTLY HIGHER...MAINLY 30-40 POPS ARRIVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING USHERING IN MORE
NWRLY WINDS TO END THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 10KTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

REGARDING THE INCREDIBLY WET LATTER HALF OF APRIL (RECORD-BREAKING
FOR SOME PLACES):

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE ISSUED A SERIES OF
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS (PNSGID) AND FACEBOOK/TWITTER POSTS
TO HIGHLIGHT SOME STATS REGARDING OUR NOW-FINISHED VERY WET APRIL.
AMONG OTHER THINGS...THIS WAS THE WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD AT
OFFICIAL NWS STATIONS AT KEARNEY...HOLDREGE AND SMITH CENTER. MOST
PLACES NEAR/WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR MEASURED ANYWHERE FROM
200-400 PERCENT OF NORMAL APRIL RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER TO THESE
AFOREMENTIONED PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 021718
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1218 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE THE PRIMARY WRINKLES IN OUR FORECAST FOR MORE SUN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM COLORADO SECTION OF TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SWING EAST TODAY...KICKED ALONG BY ANOTHER AND BIT STRONGER
WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BOTH OF THESE IMPULSES
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA...AND OVERNIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A
MAJORITY OF HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SPOTTY
SHOWERS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...SO OUR CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ON
TRACK.

OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OR CLOSE TO 70. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER CURRENT BAND OF STRATO CU
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. LOTS OF SUN TUESDAY AS
WELL WITH THE BENEFIT OF WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING
A PINCH OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT BRINING A BRIEF
STINT OF COOL ADVECTION...WHICH MAY KEEP HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS STILL ADVERTISED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER
PATTERN WILL BE BREAKING DOWN BEGINNING SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY AND KICKS MID ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW OUT TO
SEA. THIS ALLOWS RIDGE IN THE PLAINS TO FLATTEN A BIT AS IT DRIFTS
EAST...MAKING WAY FOR WESTERN LOW/TROUGH TO BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR
REGION. PRECISE DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS BREAKDOWN WILL BE
WORKED OUT WITH TIME...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL CERTAINLY ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW 80S LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SCT-BKN DECK
AROUND FL050-060 IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND AN ISO SHRA CAN`T BE
RULED OUT IN THE AREA...BUT THE CHCS STILL APPEAR TO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAF SITE. A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THEN DECREASING ON TUE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KGID 021359
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
859 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FROST ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OVERVIEW...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND ALLOWED
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...AFTER A COLD MORNING START AND SEVERAL COOL DAYS
WE WILL WARM UP NICELY THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING HIGHS
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. ALSO HAVING ONLY A LIGHT WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT TODAY. WE HAVE A LITTLE CLIPPER COMING
DOWN OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. MOST OF
ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IN OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES.

FROST ADVISORY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLEARLY BE IN THE FROST
FORMATION ZONE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 31 AND 36 IN THE
AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED THE FROST ADVISORY. WE WERE ALREADY
CALLING FOR FROST IN THESE AREAS DURING PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING IT IN OUR HWO PRODUCT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
THERE WAS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE CLOUDS WOULD CLEAR OUT
HURTING CONFIDENCE ON THE EARLIER FROST FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN
NOW THE PRETTY MUCH CERTAINTY OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ACTUAL FROST HEADLINE
SHOULD ANYONE BE WAITING FOR A HEADLINE TO ACT OR GETTING UP EARLY
TO CHECK ON SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

SHOWERS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS IS LACKING MOISTURE AND WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BASED ON MOST MAJOR FORECAST MODELS. MUCAPE VALUES
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT BETWEEN 50-100 J/KG IN OUR NORTHWEST. SO SURE
WE COULD HAVE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE
MONTH OF MAY THAT HARDLY SEEMS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND WILL JUST GO WITH THE MORE LIKELY
DOMINATE MODE OF RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN WE ARE ONLY CALLING FOR A
NARROW SLIVER OF GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES NEARER THE SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:
IN THE AFTERMATH OF A VERY WET/IN SOME PLACES RECORD-BREAKING
APRIL...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD BE JUST WHAT THE
DOCTOR (FARMER?) ORDERED TO MAKE SOME DECENT HEADWAY ON WARMING UP
AND DRYING OUT. THAT BEING SAID...FOR THOSE WHO REALLY WANTED A
LONGER-DURATION DRY PERIOD...WELL THAT MAY NOT BE IN THE
CARDS...AS NEXT WEEKEND ALREADY CONTAINS SOME HALFWAY DECENT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME
THAT WE HAVE KEPT THESE WEEKEND CHANCES (POPS) BELOW "LIKELY"
THRESHOLDS THOUGH. STICKING WITH THE WEEKEND PRECIP
CHANCES...AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) FOR SHYING
AWAY FROM INTRODUCING ANY FORMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREAS FOR
THIS DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME
RANGE...BUT EARLY INDICATIONS DO SUGGEST WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT`S HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THESE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF SPRING CHILL...BUT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR EARLY MAY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. ALONG THOSE LINES...WE ARE PLEASED TO REPORT
THAT EACH OF THESE 6 DAYS CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMAL...WITH MAINLY LOW 70S TUES-WED GIVING WAY TO THE
MID-70S/NEAR 80 RANGE THURS-SAT BEFORE POSSIBLY COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO 70 BY SUNDAY ASSUMING PRECIPITATION IS AROUND. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
FROST/FREEZE BEYOND THE ONGOING ONE...WITH LOWS HOLDING UP IN THE
40S ON TUES/WED NIGHTS AND THEN MAINLY 50S THURS-SAT NIGHTS. OF
COURSE...AS EVIDENCED JUST A FEW YEARS AGO...WE TRULY CANNOT START
"GUARANTEEING" WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS ON FROST/FREEZE UNTIL AT
LEAST AROUND MAY 20TH.

POSSIBLE HAZARDS THAT ARE INCLUDED OR MAY NEED INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID):

AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE ONLY HWO INCLUSION IS THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH NO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
SHOWING ANY "OBVIOUS" CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. PER LOCAL
POLICY...HAVE REFRAINED FROM TALKING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES BEYOND
DAY 3 WITHOUT BEING OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...WILL FINISH WITH SOME BRIEF DAY-
TO-DAY COMMENTS FOR THOSE INTERESTED:

TUESDAY DAYTIME: WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE CWA IS DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THERE ARE SOME
SUBTLE HINTS PER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/ECMWF THAT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY LINGER OUT OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE VERY FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AS THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE LOCAL AREA. THAT BEING
SAID...CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING PAST SUNRISE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" OUR GOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THIS SHOULD BE OUR
FIRST DAY OF NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN A WEEK! EVEN BEHIND A
PASSING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED AFTERNOON
BREEZES TO EXCEED 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT: EXPANSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES. DESPITE CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT BUT STEADY NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPS
UP INTO THE MID 40S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: DRY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY UNDER THE DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. DAYTIME WINDS COULD BE A
BIT BREEZY FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE
NORTH LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HWY 281.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: SHOULD STILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL START TO
INDUCE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES. TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY
BREACH 80 ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA BUT HAVE NOT AIMED
QUITE THIS WARM YET.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION...MODELS SUGGEST A
"LEAD WAVE" WILL RIDE UP TOWARD OUR AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...WE HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THIS
ENTIRE 24-HOUR PERIOD...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT LATER FORECASTS
MAY HAVE TO RE-CONSIDER ADDING SOME SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
BACK INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
FAR...FAR FROM CERTAIN...BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT BY DAY 6-7 STANDARDS IN LIFTING THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING UP INTO THE LOCAL CENTRAL
PLAINS AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT. IT`S STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY DAYTIME MIGHT END UP BEING LARGELY DRY...AND
THUS HAVE ONLY SLIGHT 20 POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THAT
DAY...BEFORE MODESTLY HIGHER...MAINLY 30-40 POPS ARRIVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE
WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND
THEN SWING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL FINALLY
A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD WITH FEW IF ANY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

REGARDING THE INCREDIBLY WET LATTER HALF OF APRIL (RECORD-BREAKING
FOR SOME PLACES):

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE ISSUED A SERIES OF
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS (PNSGID) AND FACEBOOK/TWITTER POSTS
TO HIGHLIGHT SOME STATS REGARDING OUR NOW-FINISHED VERY WET APRIL.
AMONG OTHER THINGS...THIS WAS THE WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD AT
OFFICIAL NWS STATIONS AT KEARNEY...HOLDREGE AND SMITH CENTER. MOST
PLACES NEAR/WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR MEASURED ANYWHERE FROM
200-400 PERCENT OF NORMAL APRIL RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER TO THESE
AFOREMENTIONED PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 021134
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
634 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE THE PRIMARY WRINKLES IN OUR FORECAST FOR MORE SUN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM COLORADO SECTION OF TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SWING EAST TODAY...KICKED ALONG BY ANOTHER AND BIT STRONGER
WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BOTH OF THESE IMPULSES
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA...AND OVERNIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A
MAJORITY OF HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SPOTTY
SHOWERS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...SO OUR CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ON
TRACK.

OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OR CLOSE TO 70. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER CURRENT BAND OF STRATO CU
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. LOTS OF SUN TUESDAY AS
WELL WITH THE BENEFIT OF WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING
A PINCH OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT BRINING A BRIEF
STINT OF COOL ADVECTION...WHICH MAY KEEP HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS STILL ADVERTISED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER
PATTERN WILL BE BREAKING DOWN BEGINNING SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY AND KICKS MID ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW OUT TO
SEA. THIS ALLOWS RIDGE IN THE PLAINS TO FLATTEN A BIT AS IT DRIFTS
EAST...MAKING WAY FOR WESTERN LOW/TROUGH TO BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR
REGION. PRECISE DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS BREAKDOWN WILL BE
WORKED OUT WITH TIME...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL CERTAINLY ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW 80S LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 021134
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
634 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE THE PRIMARY WRINKLES IN OUR FORECAST FOR MORE SUN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM COLORADO SECTION OF TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SWING EAST TODAY...KICKED ALONG BY ANOTHER AND BIT STRONGER
WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BOTH OF THESE IMPULSES
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA...AND OVERNIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A
MAJORITY OF HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SPOTTY
SHOWERS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...SO OUR CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ON
TRACK.

OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OR CLOSE TO 70. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER CURRENT BAND OF STRATO CU
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. LOTS OF SUN TUESDAY AS
WELL WITH THE BENEFIT OF WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING
A PINCH OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT BRINING A BRIEF
STINT OF COOL ADVECTION...WHICH MAY KEEP HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS STILL ADVERTISED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER
PATTERN WILL BE BREAKING DOWN BEGINNING SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY AND KICKS MID ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW OUT TO
SEA. THIS ALLOWS RIDGE IN THE PLAINS TO FLATTEN A BIT AS IT DRIFTS
EAST...MAKING WAY FOR WESTERN LOW/TROUGH TO BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR
REGION. PRECISE DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS BREAKDOWN WILL BE
WORKED OUT WITH TIME...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL CERTAINLY ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW 80S LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 021126
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CHILLY
TEMPS...WITH THE 3 AM OBS IN THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE QUICKLY DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S. THEN A SLOW CLIMB TO THE LOWER 60S AS
STEEP LAPSE RATE DEVELOP AND CLOUDS INCREASE. LIFT IS STRONG IN THE
MID LEVELS...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS NOT EXPECTING HIGH QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE SHOWERY IN NATURE. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME NEG LI AND A COUPLE
HUNDRED OF J/KG CAPE...THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER.

THE THUNDER THREAT LINGERS THIS EVENING THEN WITH THE LOSE OF
HEATING...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO DIMINISH. FORECAST
INCLUDES ONLY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME CLEARING TO SPREAD FROM
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE DRIFTS SOUTH AND WILL PLAY A BIG
PART INTO OVERNIGHT LOWS. HAVE USED A MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND WHICH IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY...TEMPS MAY NEED
TO BE DROPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... ABUNDANT DRY AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SITTING OVER THE PLAINS AND AN AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE RUNNING UP THE
ROCKIES... CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE
VERY LOW. MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO MAX TEMPS AS PREVIOUS FORECAST
REFLECTS WAA AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. IF ANYTHING... MAY
NEED TO WARM WED HIGHS A LITTLE WITH A BOUNDARY OVER THE
PANHANDLE... LEADING TO SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. HOWEVER...
WITH H85 FLOW ALMOST DUE NORTH... DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS WILL
BE MINIMAL.

LONG RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... EURO AND GFS ARE SHOWING
STRONGER WAA FOR THE REGION... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. H85
TEMPS ARE NOW PUSHING 20C WITH A THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS STILL ON TRACK LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. SFC HIGH SCOOTS EAST... OPENING UP THE GULF TRANSPORT. DEW
POINTS STILL TOPPING 50F THURSDAY AND APPROACHING 60F FRIDAY FOR
MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. KEPT THUNDER MENTION
FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR A POTENT LLJ. EURO FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE NOSE OF THE JET... CONCENTRATING MOST OF THE CONVERGENCE IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGH END CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND EURO PLACING THE SFC LOW NEAR KAKO
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
FA IS PLACED IN THE LEFT FRONT REGION OF A 100KT H3 JET. IN
ADDITION... GFS SHOWING MUCAPE AROUND 2000J/KG... LI AROUND -5...
AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40KTS... WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVER...
MORE SO IN THE GFS WITH IT STALLING OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EURO A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT BEING ABSORBED BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM BY LATE MONDAY. EITHER WAY... AT LEAST CHC POPS
SEEMS WARRANTED FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 FOR BOTH KVTN AND
KLBF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE SKC THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. COULD LOCALLY SEE MVFR VSBY FROM
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH TIMING SHOULD BE BRIEF.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LATER TODAY...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT CREATE ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM
WHAT IS ALREADY THERE. THE UPPER SECTION OF THE ELKHORN RIVER
CONTINUE TO SEE FLOODING CONDITIONS. THE GAUGE AT ATKINSON HAS
STARTED TO CREST JUST ABOVE 8.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET.
OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH NO GAUGES ARE FLOODING OR
FORECAST TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME. MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW SPOT
CONTINUE TO HAVE PONDING...AND GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE ON THE RISE.
AT LEAST THIS WEEK IS FAIRLY DRY...WITH NO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KGID 021013
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
513 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OVERVIEW...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND ALLOWED
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...AFTER A COLD MORNING START AND SEVERAL COOL DAYS
WE WILL WARM UP NICELY THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING HIGHS
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. ALSO HAVING ONLY A LIGHT WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT TODAY. WE HAVE A LITTLE CLIPPER COMING
DOWN OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. MOST OF
ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IN OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES.

FROST ADVISORY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLEARLY BE IN THE FROST
FORMATION ZONE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 31 AND 36 IN THE
AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED THE FROST ADVISORY. WE WERE ALREADY
CALLING FOR FROST IN THESE AREAS DURING PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING IT IN OUR HWO PRODUCT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
THERE WAS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE CLOUDS WOULD CLEAR OUT
HURTING CONFIDENCE ON THE EARLIER FROST FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN
NOW THE PRETTY MUCH CERTAINTY OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ACTUAL FROST HEADLINE
SHOULD ANYONE BE WAITING FOR A HEADLINE TO ACT OR GETTING UP EARLY
TO CHECK ON SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

SHOWERS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS IS LACKING MOISTURE AND WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BASED ON MOST MAJOR FORECAST MODELS. MUCAPE VALUES
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT BETWEEN 50-100 J/KG IN OUR NORTHWEST. SO SURE
WE COULD HAVE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE
MONTH OF MAY THAT HARDLY SEEMS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND WILL JUST GO WITH THE MORE LIKELY
DOMINATE MODE OF RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN WE ARE ONLY CALLING FOR A
NARROW SLIVER OF GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES NEARER THE SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:
IN THE AFTERMATH OF A VERY WET/IN SOME PLACES RECORD-BREAKING
APRIL...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD BE JUST WHAT THE
DOCTOR (FARMER?) ORDERED TO MAKE SOME DECENT HEADWAY ON WARMING UP
AND DRYING OUT. THAT BEING SAID...FOR THOSE WHO REALLY WANTED A
LONGER-DURATION DRY PERIOD...WELL THAT MAY NOT BE IN THE
CARDS...AS NEXT WEEKEND ALREADY CONTAINS SOME HALFWAY DECENT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME
THAT WE HAVE KEPT THESE WEEKEND CHANCES (POPS) BELOW "LIKELY"
THRESHOLDS THOUGH. STICKING WITH THE WEEKEND PRECIP
CHANCES...AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) FOR SHYING
AWAY FROM INTRODUCING ANY FORMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREAS FOR
THIS DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME
RANGE...BUT EARLY INDICATIONS DO SUGGEST WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT`S HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THESE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF SPRING CHILL...BUT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR EARLY MAY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. ALONG THOSE LINES...WE ARE PLEASED TO REPORT
THAT EACH OF THESE 6 DAYS CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMAL...WITH MAINLY LOW 70S TUES-WED GIVING WAY TO THE
MID-70S/NEAR 80 RANGE THURS-SAT BEFORE POSSIBLY COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO 70 BY SUNDAY ASSUMING PRECIPITATION IS AROUND. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
FROST/FREEZE BEYOND THE ONGOING ONE...WITH LOWS HOLDING UP IN THE
40S ON TUES/WED NIGHTS AND THEN MAINLY 50S THURS-SAT NIGHTS. OF
COURSE...AS EVIDENCED JUST A FEW YEARS AGO...WE TRULY CANNOT START
"GUARANTEEING" WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS ON FROST/FREEZE UNTIL AT
LEAST AROUND MAY 20TH.

POSSIBLE HAZARDS THAT ARE INCLUDED OR MAY NEED INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID):

AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE ONLY HWO INCLUSION IS THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH NO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
SHOWING ANY "OBVIOUS" CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. PER LOCAL
POLICY...HAVE REFRAINED FROM TALKING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES BEYOND
DAY 3 WITHOUT BEING OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...WILL FINISH WITH SOME BRIEF DAY-
TO-DAY COMMENTS FOR THOSE INTERESTED:

TUESDAY DAYTIME: WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE CWA IS DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THERE ARE SOME
SUBTLE HINTS PER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/ECMWF THAT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY LINGER OUT OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE VERY FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AS THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE LOCAL AREA. THAT BEING
SAID...CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING PAST SUNRISE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" OUR GOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THIS SHOULD BE OUR
FIRST DAY OF NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN A WEEK! EVEN BEHIND A
PASSING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED AFTERNOON
BREEZES TO EXCEED 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT: EXPANSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES. DESPITE CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT BUT STEADY NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPS
UP INTO THE MID 40S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: DRY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY UNDER THE DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. DAYTIME WINDS COULD BE A
BIT BREEZY FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE
NORTH LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HWY 281.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: SHOULD STILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL START TO
INDUCE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES. TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY
BREACH 80 ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA BUT HAVE NOT AIMED
QUITE THIS WARM YET.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION...MODELS SUGGEST A
"LEAD WAVE" WILL RIDE UP TOWARD OUR AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...WE HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THIS
ENTIRE 24-HOUR PERIOD...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT LATER FORECASTS
MAY HAVE TO RE-CONSIDER ADDING SOME SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
BACK INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
FAR...FAR FROM CERTAIN...BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT BY DAY 6-7 STANDARDS IN LIFTING THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING UP INTO THE LOCAL CENTRAL
PLAINS AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT. IT`S STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY DAYTIME MIGHT END UP BEING LARGELY DRY...AND
THUS HAVE ONLY SLIGHT 20 POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THAT
DAY...BEFORE MODESTLY HIGHER...MAINLY 30-40 POPS ARRIVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE
WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND
THEN SWING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL FINALLY
A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD WITH FEW IF ANY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

REGARDING THE INCREDIBLY WET LATTER HALF OF APRIL (RECORD-BREAKING
FOR SOME PLACES):

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE ISSUED A SERIES OF
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS (PNSGID) AND FACEBOOK/TWITTER POSTS
TO HIGHLIGHT SOME STATS REGARDING OUR NOW-FINISHED VERY WET APRIL.
AMONG OTHER THINGS...THIS WAS THE WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD AT
OFFICIAL NWS STATIONS AT KEARNEY...HOLDREGE AND SMITH CENTER. MOST
PLACES NEAR/WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR MEASURED ANYWHERE FROM
200-400 PERCENT OF NORMAL APRIL RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER TO THESE
AFOREMENTIONED PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046-
     047-060-061-072-073-082.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 021013
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
513 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OVERVIEW...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND ALLOWED
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...AFTER A COLD MORNING START AND SEVERAL COOL DAYS
WE WILL WARM UP NICELY THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING HIGHS
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. ALSO HAVING ONLY A LIGHT WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT TODAY. WE HAVE A LITTLE CLIPPER COMING
DOWN OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. MOST OF
ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IN OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES.

FROST ADVISORY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLEARLY BE IN THE FROST
FORMATION ZONE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 31 AND 36 IN THE
AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED THE FROST ADVISORY. WE WERE ALREADY
CALLING FOR FROST IN THESE AREAS DURING PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING IT IN OUR HWO PRODUCT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
THERE WAS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE CLOUDS WOULD CLEAR OUT
HURTING CONFIDENCE ON THE EARLIER FROST FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN
NOW THE PRETTY MUCH CERTAINTY OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ACTUAL FROST HEADLINE
SHOULD ANYONE BE WAITING FOR A HEADLINE TO ACT OR GETTING UP EARLY
TO CHECK ON SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

SHOWERS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS IS LACKING MOISTURE AND WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BASED ON MOST MAJOR FORECAST MODELS. MUCAPE VALUES
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT BETWEEN 50-100 J/KG IN OUR NORTHWEST. SO SURE
WE COULD HAVE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE
MONTH OF MAY THAT HARDLY SEEMS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND WILL JUST GO WITH THE MORE LIKELY
DOMINATE MODE OF RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN WE ARE ONLY CALLING FOR A
NARROW SLIVER OF GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES NEARER THE SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:
IN THE AFTERMATH OF A VERY WET/IN SOME PLACES RECORD-BREAKING
APRIL...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD BE JUST WHAT THE
DOCTOR (FARMER?) ORDERED TO MAKE SOME DECENT HEADWAY ON WARMING UP
AND DRYING OUT. THAT BEING SAID...FOR THOSE WHO REALLY WANTED A
LONGER-DURATION DRY PERIOD...WELL THAT MAY NOT BE IN THE
CARDS...AS NEXT WEEKEND ALREADY CONTAINS SOME HALFWAY DECENT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME
THAT WE HAVE KEPT THESE WEEKEND CHANCES (POPS) BELOW "LIKELY"
THRESHOLDS THOUGH. STICKING WITH THE WEEKEND PRECIP
CHANCES...AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) FOR SHYING
AWAY FROM INTRODUCING ANY FORMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREAS FOR
THIS DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME
RANGE...BUT EARLY INDICATIONS DO SUGGEST WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT`S HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THESE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF SPRING CHILL...BUT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR EARLY MAY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. ALONG THOSE LINES...WE ARE PLEASED TO REPORT
THAT EACH OF THESE 6 DAYS CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMAL...WITH MAINLY LOW 70S TUES-WED GIVING WAY TO THE
MID-70S/NEAR 80 RANGE THURS-SAT BEFORE POSSIBLY COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO 70 BY SUNDAY ASSUMING PRECIPITATION IS AROUND. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
FROST/FREEZE BEYOND THE ONGOING ONE...WITH LOWS HOLDING UP IN THE
40S ON TUES/WED NIGHTS AND THEN MAINLY 50S THURS-SAT NIGHTS. OF
COURSE...AS EVIDENCED JUST A FEW YEARS AGO...WE TRULY CANNOT START
"GUARANTEEING" WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS ON FROST/FREEZE UNTIL AT
LEAST AROUND MAY 20TH.

POSSIBLE HAZARDS THAT ARE INCLUDED OR MAY NEED INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID):

AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE ONLY HWO INCLUSION IS THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH NO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
SHOWING ANY "OBVIOUS" CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. PER LOCAL
POLICY...HAVE REFRAINED FROM TALKING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES BEYOND
DAY 3 WITHOUT BEING OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...WILL FINISH WITH SOME BRIEF DAY-
TO-DAY COMMENTS FOR THOSE INTERESTED:

TUESDAY DAYTIME: WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE CWA IS DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THERE ARE SOME
SUBTLE HINTS PER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/ECMWF THAT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY LINGER OUT OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE VERY FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AS THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE LOCAL AREA. THAT BEING
SAID...CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING PAST SUNRISE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" OUR GOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THIS SHOULD BE OUR
FIRST DAY OF NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN A WEEK! EVEN BEHIND A
PASSING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED AFTERNOON
BREEZES TO EXCEED 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT: EXPANSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES. DESPITE CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT BUT STEADY NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPS
UP INTO THE MID 40S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: DRY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY UNDER THE DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. DAYTIME WINDS COULD BE A
BIT BREEZY FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE
NORTH LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HWY 281.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: SHOULD STILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL START TO
INDUCE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES. TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY
BREACH 80 ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA BUT HAVE NOT AIMED
QUITE THIS WARM YET.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION...MODELS SUGGEST A
"LEAD WAVE" WILL RIDE UP TOWARD OUR AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...WE HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THIS
ENTIRE 24-HOUR PERIOD...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT LATER FORECASTS
MAY HAVE TO RE-CONSIDER ADDING SOME SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
BACK INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
FAR...FAR FROM CERTAIN...BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT BY DAY 6-7 STANDARDS IN LIFTING THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING UP INTO THE LOCAL CENTRAL
PLAINS AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT. IT`S STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY DAYTIME MIGHT END UP BEING LARGELY DRY...AND
THUS HAVE ONLY SLIGHT 20 POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THAT
DAY...BEFORE MODESTLY HIGHER...MAINLY 30-40 POPS ARRIVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE
WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND
THEN SWING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL FINALLY
A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD WITH FEW IF ANY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

REGARDING THE INCREDIBLY WET LATTER HALF OF APRIL (RECORD-BREAKING
FOR SOME PLACES):

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE ISSUED A SERIES OF
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS (PNSGID) AND FACEBOOK/TWITTER POSTS
TO HIGHLIGHT SOME STATS REGARDING OUR NOW-FINISHED VERY WET APRIL.
AMONG OTHER THINGS...THIS WAS THE WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD AT
OFFICIAL NWS STATIONS AT KEARNEY...HOLDREGE AND SMITH CENTER. MOST
PLACES NEAR/WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR MEASURED ANYWHERE FROM
200-400 PERCENT OF NORMAL APRIL RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER TO THESE
AFOREMENTIONED PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046-
     047-060-061-072-073-082.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 020949
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
449 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OVERVIEW...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND ALLOWED
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...AFTER A COLD MORNING START AND SEVERAL COOL DAYS
WE WILL WARM UP NICELY THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING HIGHS
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. ALSO HAVING ONLY A LIGHT WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT TODAY. WE HAVE A LITTLE CLIPPER COMING
DOWN OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. MOST OF
ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IN OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES.

FROST ADVISORY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLEARLY BE IN THE FROST
FORMATION ZONE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 31 AND 36 IN THE
AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED THE FROST ADVISORY. WE WERE ALREADY
CALLING FOR FROST IN THESE AREAS DURING PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING IT IN OUR HWO PRODUCT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
THERE WAS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE CLOUDS WOULD CLEAR OUT
HURTING CONFIDENCE ON THE EARLIER FROST FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN
NOW THE PRETTY MUCH CERTAINTY OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ACTUAL FROST HEADLINE
SHOULD ANYONE BE WAITING FOR A HEADLINE TO ACT OR GETTING UP EARLY
TO CHECK ON SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

SHOWERS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS IS LACKING MOISTURE AND WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BASED ON MOST MAJOR FORECAST MODELS. MUCAPE VALUES
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT BETWEEN 50-100 J/KG IN OUR NORTHWEST. SO SURE
WE COULD HAVE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE
MONTH OF MAY THAT HARDLY SEEMS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND WILL JUST GO WITH THE MORE LIKELY
DOMINATE MODE OF RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN WE ARE ONLY CALLING FOR A
NARROW SLIVER OF GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES NEARER THE SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:
IN THE AFTERMATH OF A VERY WET/IN SOME PLACES RECORD-BREAKING
APRIL...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD BE JUST WHAT THE
DOCTOR (FARMER?) ORDERED TO MAKE SOME DECENT HEADWAY ON WARMING UP
AND DRYING OUT. THAT BEING SAID...FOR THOSE WHO REALLY WANTED A
LONGER-DURATION DRY PERIOD...WELL THAT MAY NOT BE IN THE
CARDS...AS NEXT WEEKEND ALREADY CONTAINS SOME HALFWAY DECENT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME
THAT WE HAVE KEPT THESE WEEKEND CHANCES (POPS) BELOW "LIKELY"
THRESHOLDS THOUGH. STICKING WITH THE WEEKEND PRECIP
CHANCES...AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) FOR SHYING
AWAY FROM INTRODUCING ANY FORMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREAS FOR
THIS DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME
RANGE...BUT EARLY INDICATIONS DO SUGGEST WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT`S HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THESE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF SPRING CHILL...BUT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR EARLY MAY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. ALONG THOSE LINES...WE ARE PLEASED TO REPORT
THAT EACH OF THESE 6 DAYS CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMAL...WITH MAINLY LOW 70S TUES-WED GIVING WAY TO THE
MID-70S/NEAR 80 RANGE THURS-SAT BEFORE POSSIBLY COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO 70 BY SUNDAY ASSUMING PRECIPITATION IS AROUND. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
FROST/FREEZE BEYOND THE ONGOING ONE...WITH LOWS HOLDING UP IN THE
40S ON TUES/WED NIGHTS AND THEN MAINLY 50S THURS-SAT NIGHTS. OF
COURSE...AS EVIDENCED JUST A FEW YEARS AGO...WE TRULY CANNOT START
"GUARANTEEING" WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS ON FROST/FREEZE UNTIL AT
LEAST AROUND MAY 20TH.

POSSIBLE HAZARDS THAT ARE INCLUDED OR MAY NEED INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID):

AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE ONLY HWO INCLUSION IS THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH NO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
SHOWING ANY "OBVIOUS" CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. PER LOCAL
POLICY...HAVE REFRAINED FROM TALKING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES BEYOND
DAY 3 WITHOUT BEING OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...WILL FINISH WITH SOME BRIEF DAY-
TO-DAY COMMENTS FOR THOSE INTERESTED:

TUESDAY DAYTIME: WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE CWA IS DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THERE ARE SOME
SUBTLE HINTS PER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/ECMWF THAT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY LINGER OUT OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE VERY FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AS THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE LOCAL AREA. THAT BEING
SAID...CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING PAST SUNRISE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" OUR GOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THIS SHOULD BE OUR
FIRST DAY OF NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN A WEEK! EVEN BEHIND A
PASSING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED AFTERNOON
BREEZES TO EXCEED 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT: EXPANSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES. DESPITE CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT BUT STEADY NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPS
UP INTO THE MID 40S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: DRY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY UNDER THE DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. DAYTIME WINDS COULD BE A
BIT BREEZY FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE
NORTH LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HWY 281.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: SHOULD STILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL START TO
INDUCE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES. TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY
BREACH 80 ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA BUT HAVE NOT AIMED
QUITE THIS WARM YET.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION...MODELS SUGGEST A
"LEAD WAVE" WILL RIDE UP TOWARD OUR AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...WE HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THIS
ENTIRE 24-HOUR PERIOD...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT LATER FORECASTS
MAY HAVE TO RE-CONSIDER ADDING SOME SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
BACK INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
FAR...FAR FROM CERTAIN...BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT BY DAY 6-7 STANDARDS IN LIFTING THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING UP INTO THE LOCAL CENTRAL
PLAINS AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT. IT`S STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY DAYTIME MIGHT END UP BEING LARGELY DRY...AND
THUS HAVE ONLY SLIGHT 20 POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THAT
DAY...BEFORE MODESTLY HIGHER...MAINLY 30-40 POPS ARRIVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE
IS JUST THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WITH THIS TAF. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND OUT OF
THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND THEN SWING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

REGARDING THE INCREDIBLY WET LATTER HALF OF APRIL (RECORD-BREAKING
FOR SOME PLACES):

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE ISSUED A SERIES OF
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS (PNSGID) AND FACEBOOK/TWITTER POSTS
TO HIGHLIGHT SOME STATS REGARDING OUR NOW-FINISHED VERY WET APRIL.
AMONG OTHER THINGS...THIS WAS THE WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD AT
OFFICIAL NWS STATIONS AT KEARNEY...HOLDREGE AND SMITH CENTER. MOST
PLACES NEAR/WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR MEASURED ANYWHERE FROM
200-400 PERCENT OF NORMAL APRIL RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER TO THESE
AFOREMENTIONED PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046-
     047-060-061-072-073-082.

KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 020949
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
449 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OVERVIEW...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND ALLOWED
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...AFTER A COLD MORNING START AND SEVERAL COOL DAYS
WE WILL WARM UP NICELY THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING HIGHS
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. ALSO HAVING ONLY A LIGHT WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT TODAY. WE HAVE A LITTLE CLIPPER COMING
DOWN OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. MOST OF
ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IN OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES.

FROST ADVISORY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLEARLY BE IN THE FROST
FORMATION ZONE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 31 AND 36 IN THE
AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED THE FROST ADVISORY. WE WERE ALREADY
CALLING FOR FROST IN THESE AREAS DURING PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING IT IN OUR HWO PRODUCT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
THERE WAS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE CLOUDS WOULD CLEAR OUT
HURTING CONFIDENCE ON THE EARLIER FROST FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN
NOW THE PRETTY MUCH CERTAINTY OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ACTUAL FROST HEADLINE
SHOULD ANYONE BE WAITING FOR A HEADLINE TO ACT OR GETTING UP EARLY
TO CHECK ON SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

SHOWERS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS IS LACKING MOISTURE AND WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BASED ON MOST MAJOR FORECAST MODELS. MUCAPE VALUES
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT BETWEEN 50-100 J/KG IN OUR NORTHWEST. SO SURE
WE COULD HAVE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE
MONTH OF MAY THAT HARDLY SEEMS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND WILL JUST GO WITH THE MORE LIKELY
DOMINATE MODE OF RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN WE ARE ONLY CALLING FOR A
NARROW SLIVER OF GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES NEARER THE SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:
IN THE AFTERMATH OF A VERY WET/IN SOME PLACES RECORD-BREAKING
APRIL...THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD BE JUST WHAT THE
DOCTOR (FARMER?) ORDERED TO MAKE SOME DECENT HEADWAY ON WARMING UP
AND DRYING OUT. THAT BEING SAID...FOR THOSE WHO REALLY WANTED A
LONGER-DURATION DRY PERIOD...WELL THAT MAY NOT BE IN THE
CARDS...AS NEXT WEEKEND ALREADY CONTAINS SOME HALFWAY DECENT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME
THAT WE HAVE KEPT THESE WEEKEND CHANCES (POPS) BELOW "LIKELY"
THRESHOLDS THOUGH. STICKING WITH THE WEEKEND PRECIP
CHANCES...AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) FOR SHYING
AWAY FROM INTRODUCING ANY FORMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREAS FOR
THIS DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME
RANGE...BUT EARLY INDICATIONS DO SUGGEST WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT`S HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THESE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF SPRING CHILL...BUT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR EARLY MAY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. ALONG THOSE LINES...WE ARE PLEASED TO REPORT
THAT EACH OF THESE 6 DAYS CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS AT OR ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMAL...WITH MAINLY LOW 70S TUES-WED GIVING WAY TO THE
MID-70S/NEAR 80 RANGE THURS-SAT BEFORE POSSIBLY COOLING BACK
CLOSER TO 70 BY SUNDAY ASSUMING PRECIPITATION IS AROUND. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
FROST/FREEZE BEYOND THE ONGOING ONE...WITH LOWS HOLDING UP IN THE
40S ON TUES/WED NIGHTS AND THEN MAINLY 50S THURS-SAT NIGHTS. OF
COURSE...AS EVIDENCED JUST A FEW YEARS AGO...WE TRULY CANNOT START
"GUARANTEEING" WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS ON FROST/FREEZE UNTIL AT
LEAST AROUND MAY 20TH.

POSSIBLE HAZARDS THAT ARE INCLUDED OR MAY NEED INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID):

AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE ONLY HWO INCLUSION IS THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH NO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
SHOWING ANY "OBVIOUS" CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. PER LOCAL
POLICY...HAVE REFRAINED FROM TALKING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES BEYOND
DAY 3 WITHOUT BEING OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED...WILL FINISH WITH SOME BRIEF DAY-
TO-DAY COMMENTS FOR THOSE INTERESTED:

TUESDAY DAYTIME: WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE CWA IS DRY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THERE ARE SOME
SUBTLE HINTS PER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/ECMWF THAT A FEW ROGUE
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD POSSIBLY LINGER OUT OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE VERY FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AS THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE LOCAL AREA. THAT BEING
SAID...CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING PAST SUNRISE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY "RUINING" OUR GOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THIS SHOULD BE OUR
FIRST DAY OF NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN A WEEK! EVEN BEHIND A
PASSING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...DO NOT EXPECT SUSTAINED AFTERNOON
BREEZES TO EXCEED 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT: EXPANSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE ROCKIES. DESPITE CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT BUT STEADY NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPS
UP INTO THE MID 40S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: DRY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY UNDER THE DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT. DAYTIME WINDS COULD BE A
BIT BREEZY FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE
NORTH LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HWY 281.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: SHOULD STILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH A LARGE-
SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL START TO
INDUCE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE BREEZES. TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY
BREACH 80 ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA BUT HAVE NOT AIMED
QUITE THIS WARM YET.

FRIDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION...MODELS SUGGEST A
"LEAD WAVE" WILL RIDE UP TOWARD OUR AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...WE HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THIS
ENTIRE 24-HOUR PERIOD...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT LATER FORECASTS
MAY HAVE TO RE-CONSIDER ADDING SOME SMALL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
BACK INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH FORECAST
CONSISTENCY.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
FAR...FAR FROM CERTAIN...BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT BY DAY 6-7 STANDARDS IN LIFTING THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING UP INTO THE LOCAL CENTRAL
PLAINS AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT. IT`S STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY DAYTIME MIGHT END UP BEING LARGELY DRY...AND
THUS HAVE ONLY SLIGHT 20 POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THAT
DAY...BEFORE MODESTLY HIGHER...MAINLY 30-40 POPS ARRIVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE
IS JUST THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WITH THIS TAF. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND OUT OF
THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND THEN SWING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

REGARDING THE INCREDIBLY WET LATTER HALF OF APRIL (RECORD-BREAKING
FOR SOME PLACES):

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE ISSUED A SERIES OF
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS (PNSGID) AND FACEBOOK/TWITTER POSTS
TO HIGHLIGHT SOME STATS REGARDING OUR NOW-FINISHED VERY WET APRIL.
AMONG OTHER THINGS...THIS WAS THE WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD AT
OFFICIAL NWS STATIONS AT KEARNEY...HOLDREGE AND SMITH CENTER. MOST
PLACES NEAR/WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR MEASURED ANYWHERE FROM
200-400 PERCENT OF NORMAL APRIL RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER TO THESE
AFOREMENTIONED PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046-
     047-060-061-072-073-082.

KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 020918
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
418 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OVERVIEW...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND ALLOWED
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...AFTER A COLD MORNING START AND SEVERAL COOL DAYS
WE WILL WARM UP NICELY THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING HIGHS
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. ALSO HAVING ONLY A LIGHT WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT TODAY. WE HAVE A LITTLE CLIPPER COMING
DOWN OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. MOST OF
ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IN OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES.

FROST ADVISORY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLEARLY BE IN THE FROST
FORMATION ZONE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 31 AND 36 IN THE
AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED THE FROST ADVISORY. WE WERE ALREADY
CALLING FOR FROST IN THESE AREAS DURING PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING IT IN OUR HWO PRODUCT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
THERE WAS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE CLOUDS WOULD CLEAR OUT
HURTING CONFIDENCE ON THE EARLIER FROST FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN
NOW THE PRETTY MUCH CERTAINTY OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ACTUAL FROST HEADLINE
SHOULD ANYONE BE WAITING FOR A HEADLINE TO ACT OR GETTING UP EARLY
TO CHECK ON SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

SHOWERS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS IS LACKING MOISTURE AND WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BASED ON MOST MAJOR FORECAST MODELS. MUCAPE VALUES
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT BETWEEN 50-100 J/KG IN OUR NORTHWEST. SO SURE
WE COULD HAVE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE
MONTH OF MAY THAT HARDLY SEEMS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND WILL JUST GO WITH THE MORE LIKELY
DOMINATE MODE OF RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN WE ARE ONLY CALLING FOR A
NARROW SLIVER OF GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES NEARER THE SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS SECTION WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE
IS JUST THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WITH THIS TAF. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND OUT OF
THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND THEN SWING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046-
     047-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 020918
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
418 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OVERVIEW...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FROST ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT AND ALLOWED
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HOWEVER...AFTER A COLD MORNING START AND SEVERAL COOL DAYS
WE WILL WARM UP NICELY THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING HIGHS
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. ALSO HAVING ONLY A LIGHT WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT TODAY. WE HAVE A LITTLE CLIPPER COMING
DOWN OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. MOST OF
ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT IN OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES.

FROST ADVISORY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLEARLY BE IN THE FROST
FORMATION ZONE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 31 AND 36 IN THE
AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED THE FROST ADVISORY. WE WERE ALREADY
CALLING FOR FROST IN THESE AREAS DURING PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING IT IN OUR HWO PRODUCT AND ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
THERE WAS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE CLOUDS WOULD CLEAR OUT
HURTING CONFIDENCE ON THE EARLIER FROST FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN
NOW THE PRETTY MUCH CERTAINTY OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ACTUAL FROST HEADLINE
SHOULD ANYONE BE WAITING FOR A HEADLINE TO ACT OR GETTING UP EARLY
TO CHECK ON SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

SHOWERS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS IS LACKING MOISTURE AND WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BASED ON MOST MAJOR FORECAST MODELS. MUCAPE VALUES
SHOULD ONLY MAX OUT BETWEEN 50-100 J/KG IN OUR NORTHWEST. SO SURE
WE COULD HAVE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THAT IT IS THE
MONTH OF MAY THAT HARDLY SEEMS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND WILL JUST GO WITH THE MORE LIKELY
DOMINATE MODE OF RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN THEN WE ARE ONLY CALLING FOR A
NARROW SLIVER OF GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THESE FAR WESTERN ZONES NEARER THE SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS SECTION WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE
IS JUST THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WITH THIS TAF. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND OUT OF
THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND THEN SWING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046-
     047-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 020842
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CHILLY
TEMPS...WITH THE 3 AM OBS IN THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S. UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE QUICKLY DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TO
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S. THEN A SLOW CLIMB TO THE LOWER 60S AS
STEEP LAPSE RATE DEVELOP AND CLOUDS INCREASE. LIFT IS STRONG IN THE
MID LEVELS...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS NOT EXPECTING HIGH QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE SHOWERY IN NATURE. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME NEG LI AND A COUPLE
HUNDRED OF J/KG CAPE...THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER.

THE THUNDER THREAT LINGERS THIS EVENING THEN WITH THE LOSE OF
HEATING...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO DIMINISH. FORECAST
INCLUDES ONLY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME CLEARING TO SPREAD FROM
THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE DRIFTS SOUTH AND WILL PLAY A BIG
PART INTO OVERNIGHT LOWS. HAVE USED A MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND WHICH IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY...TEMPS MAY NEED
TO BE DROPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... ABUNDANT DRY AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A SURFACE HIGH
SITTING OVER THE PLAINS AND AN AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE RUNNING UP THE
ROCKIES... CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE
VERY LOW. MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO MAX TEMPS AS PREVIOUS FORECAST
REFLECTS WAA AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. IF ANYTHING... MAY
NEED TO WARM WED HIGHS A LITTLE WITH A BOUNDARY OVER THE
PANHANDLE... LEADING TO SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. HOWEVER...
WITH H85 FLOW ALMOST DUE NORTH... DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS WILL
BE MINIMAL.

LONG RANGE...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... EURO AND GFS ARE SHOWING
STRONGER WAA FOR THE REGION... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. H85
TEMPS ARE NOW PUSHING 20C WITH A THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS STILL ON TRACK LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. SFC HIGH SCOOTS EAST... OPENING UP THE GULF TRANSPORT. DEW
POINTS STILL TOPPING 50F THURSDAY AND APPROACHING 60F FRIDAY FOR
MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. KEPT THUNDER MENTION
FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR A POTENT LLJ. EURO FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE NOSE OF THE JET... CONCENTRATING MOST OF THE CONVERGENCE IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGH END CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND EURO PLACING THE SFC LOW NEAR KAKO
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE ACTIVE FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE
FA IS PLACED IN THE LEFT FRONT REGION OF A 100KT H3 JET. IN
ADDITION... GFS SHOWING MUCAPE AROUND 2000J/KG... LI AROUND -5...
AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40KTS... WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVER...
MORE SO IN THE GFS WITH IT STALLING OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EURO A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH IT BEING ABSORBED BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM BY LATE MONDAY. EITHER WAY... AT LEAST CHC POPS
SEEMS WARRANTED FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
NORTHERN NEBRASKA MIDDAY MONDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE
IS A THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAF FCSTS. CIGS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE FROM 5000 TO 7000 FT
AGL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN LATER TODAY...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT CREATE ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM
WHAT IS ALREADY THERE. THE UPPER SECTION OF THE ELKHORN RIVER
CONTINUE TO SEE FLOODING CONDITIONS. THE GAUGE AT ATKINSON HAS
STARTED TO CREST JUST ABOVE 8.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET.
OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH NO GAUGES ARE FLOODING OR
FORECAST TO FLOOD AT THIS TIME. MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW SPOT
CONTINUE TO HAVE PONDING...AND GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE ON THE RISE.
AT LEAST THIS WEEK IS FAIRLY DRY...WITH NO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...BUTTLER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 020815
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE THE PRIMARY WRINKLES IN OUR FORECAST FOR MORE SUN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM COLORADO SECTION OF TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SWING EAST TODAY...KICKED ALONG BY ANOTHER AND BIT STRONGER
WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BOTH OF THESE IMPULSES
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA...AND OVERNIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A
MAJORITY OF HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SPOTTY
SHOWERS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...SO OUR CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ON
TRACK.

OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OR CLOSE TO 70. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER CURRENT BAND OF STRATO CU
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. LOTS OF SUN TUESDAY AS
WELL WITH THE BENEFIT OF WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING
A PINCH OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT BRINING A BRIEF
STINT OF COOL ADVECTION...WHICH MAY KEEP HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS STILL ADVERTISED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER
PATTERN WILL BE BREAKING DOWN BEGINNING SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY AND KICKS MID ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW OUT TO
SEA. THIS ALLOWS RIDGE IN THE PLAINS TO FLATTEN A BIT AS IT DRIFTS
EAST...MAKING WAY FOR WESTERN LOW/TROUGH TO BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR
REGION. PRECISE DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS BREAKDOWN WILL BE
WORKED OUT WITH TIME...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL CERTAINLY ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW 80S LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MVFR CIGS HAVE
MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVNG AND A SC DECK AT
FL040-060 WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THIS
SHIFTS S AS WELL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MON WITH
SOME ISO SHRA POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TO LOW NEAR THE TAF
SITES TO INCLUDE CURRENTLY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KGID 020602
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
102 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

RETURNS ARE FINALLY GONE FROM THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AND SATELLITE
SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ARE NOT TO FAR FROM THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW ALREADY
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE LOW HAS MOVED WELL EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST...THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY SEE SOME
CLEARING THIS EVENING. WITH THE CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF. THE DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL
AROUND 40 BUT TO THE NORTHWEST THE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 30S AND
EVEN THE LOWER 30S. THERE IS A LITTLE QUESTION ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING AND HOW MUCH THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. NOW THAT WE ARE AT
THE FIRST OF MAY...WE NEED TO BE CONCERNED FOR FROST SINCE WE ARE
NOW INTO THE GROWING SEASON. AT THIS POINT HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE SOME LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND SEE JUST HOW FAST WE CLEAR OUT AND HOW
MUCH OF THE DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY THE CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. WITH THE
SUNSHINE WILL COME SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES. WE STILL WILL NOT BE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT SHOULD REACH AROUND 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE FINAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING US
FOR THE WEEKEND WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD IMPACTING THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND BY TUESDAY MORNING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE WAVE. THE CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE UNTIL MID-WEEK WHEN THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS. HIGHS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE IS
RELATIVELY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE
IS JUST THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WITH THIS TAF. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND OUT OF
THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND THEN SWING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 020602
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
102 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

RETURNS ARE FINALLY GONE FROM THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AND SATELLITE
SHOWS THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ARE NOT TO FAR FROM THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW ALREADY
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE LOW HAS MOVED WELL EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST...THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY SEE SOME
CLEARING THIS EVENING. WITH THE CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF. THE DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL
AROUND 40 BUT TO THE NORTHWEST THE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 30S AND
EVEN THE LOWER 30S. THERE IS A LITTLE QUESTION ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING AND HOW MUCH THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. NOW THAT WE ARE AT
THE FIRST OF MAY...WE NEED TO BE CONCERNED FOR FROST SINCE WE ARE
NOW INTO THE GROWING SEASON. AT THIS POINT HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE SOME LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND SEE JUST HOW FAST WE CLEAR OUT AND HOW
MUCH OF THE DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY THE CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. WITH THE
SUNSHINE WILL COME SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES. WE STILL WILL NOT BE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT SHOULD REACH AROUND 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE FINAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING US
FOR THE WEEKEND WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD IMPACTING THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND BY TUESDAY MORNING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE WAVE. THE CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE UNTIL MID-WEEK WHEN THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS. HIGHS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND EARLY
WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE IS
RELATIVELY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THERE
IS JUST THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WITH THIS TAF. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND OUT OF
THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND THEN SWING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY LATER
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 020448
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1148 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE
ENDING OF THE LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE...
CLOUDS...AND FOG OVERNIGHT...AND IF SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP AS
THREE SUBTLE WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF BUMPY STRATOCU
OVER THE AREA AND THE WSR-88D HAD A FEW ECHOES TOWARD DECATUR AND
LYONS. THE CLOSED H5 CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OVER CENTRAL IOWA.
TONIGHT...WE LOSE OUR LIFT AND HEATING...THUS THE MAIN AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST...HOWEVER A FEW SPRINKLES SHOULD LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE
ALREADY WORKING INTO THE NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPREADS ARE CLOSER...AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO THE WET GROUND...CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS.

MONDAY...THERE IS SOME H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH 100 TO 300
J/KG. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN AND THERE IS A POCKET OF WEAK LIFT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. INCLUDED LOW POPS IN FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE
DAY...AND SOME LOW POPS ADJACENT TO LBF/GID OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE AND SOME STRONG H7 WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THE MAIN LIFT TO THE EAST. MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME
POPS IF BETTER MOISTURE IS REALIZED...HOWEVER...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
DRY.

HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY...THEN 60S TO 70 FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
EACH DAY. TYPICAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND 70. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A WEAK
RIPPLE IN THE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MVFR CIGS HAVE
MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVNG AND A SC DECK AT
FL040-060 WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THIS
SHIFTS S AS WELL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MON WITH
SOME ISO SHRA POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TO LOW NEAR THE TAF
SITES TO INCLUDE CURRENTLY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THAT`S A WRAP FOR APRIL. APRIL 2016 WAS THE 11TH WETTEST ON RECORD
AT OMAHA, LINCOLN THE 15TH WETTEST, AND NORFOLK THE 10TH WETTEST
WITH 5.40/4.37/5.21 INCHES OF RAINFALL RESPECTIVELY. NORMAL IS
2.96/2.71/2.65 RESPECTIVELY.

FOR THE MONTH, TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A DEPARTURE OF
3.3 DEGREES AT OMAHA...3.5 DEGREE AT LINCOLN...AND 1.3 DEGREES AT
NORFOLK.

IN CASE YOU WERE WONDERING, HERE ARE THE SEASONAL SNOW TOTALS...
27.4 INCHES AT OMAHA (1 INCH ABOVE NORMAL), 20.5 INCHES AT LINCOLN
(5.4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL), AND 53.0 INCHES OF SNOW AT NORFOLK
(22.5 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL).

WOW...THAT IS A LOT OF SNOW AT NORFOLK. OF AVAILABLE DATA...THE
RECORD AT NORFOLK IS 86.1 INCHES IN 1984. THE LAST TIME NORFOLK
HAD OVER 50 INCHES OF SNOW WAS 2010 WITH 55 INCHES AND IN 1960
WITH 59 INCHES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...
CLIMATE...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 020448
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1148 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE
ENDING OF THE LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE...
CLOUDS...AND FOG OVERNIGHT...AND IF SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP AS
THREE SUBTLE WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF BUMPY STRATOCU
OVER THE AREA AND THE WSR-88D HAD A FEW ECHOES TOWARD DECATUR AND
LYONS. THE CLOSED H5 CIRCULATION WAS NOTED OVER CENTRAL IOWA.
TONIGHT...WE LOSE OUR LIFT AND HEATING...THUS THE MAIN AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST...HOWEVER A FEW SPRINKLES SHOULD LINGER
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ARE
ALREADY WORKING INTO THE NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUDS. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH WHERE
DEWPOINTS SPREADS ARE CLOSER...AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE DUE TO THE WET GROUND...CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS.

MONDAY...THERE IS SOME H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH 100 TO 300
J/KG. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN AND THERE IS A POCKET OF WEAK LIFT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. INCLUDED LOW POPS IN FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE
DAY...AND SOME LOW POPS ADJACENT TO LBF/GID OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE AND SOME STRONG H7 WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THE MAIN LIFT TO THE EAST. MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME
POPS IF BETTER MOISTURE IS REALIZED...HOWEVER...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
DRY.

HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY...THEN 60S TO 70 FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
EACH DAY. TYPICAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND 70. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A WEAK
RIPPLE IN THE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MVFR CIGS HAVE
MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVNG AND A SC DECK AT
FL040-060 WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THIS
SHIFTS S AS WELL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MON WITH
SOME ISO SHRA POSSIBLE...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TO LOW NEAR THE TAF
SITES TO INCLUDE CURRENTLY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THAT`S A WRAP FOR APRIL. APRIL 2016 WAS THE 11TH WETTEST ON RECORD
AT OMAHA, LINCOLN THE 15TH WETTEST, AND NORFOLK THE 10TH WETTEST
WITH 5.40/4.37/5.21 INCHES OF RAINFALL RESPECTIVELY. NORMAL IS
2.96/2.71/2.65 RESPECTIVELY.

FOR THE MONTH, TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A DEPARTURE OF
3.3 DEGREES AT OMAHA...3.5 DEGREE AT LINCOLN...AND 1.3 DEGREES AT
NORFOLK.

IN CASE YOU WERE WONDERING, HERE ARE THE SEASONAL SNOW TOTALS...
27.4 INCHES AT OMAHA (1 INCH ABOVE NORMAL), 20.5 INCHES AT LINCOLN
(5.4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL), AND 53.0 INCHES OF SNOW AT NORFOLK
(22.5 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL).

WOW...THAT IS A LOT OF SNOW AT NORFOLK. OF AVAILABLE DATA...THE
RECORD AT NORFOLK IS 86.1 INCHES IN 1984. THE LAST TIME NORFOLK
HAD OVER 50 INCHES OF SNOW WAS 2010 WITH 55 INCHES AND IN 1960
WITH 59 INCHES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...
CLIMATE...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 020446
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.  THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE APPROACH OF A
NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE THAT WILL SPREAD LIGHT QPF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

OVERNIGHT...SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE WINDS GO
LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD.  WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE...THE WEAK CU THAT DEVELOPED TODAY SHOULD BURN OFF LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  LOWS WERE DERIVED WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN
MIND...THE COLDEST READINGS OUT WEST...AND WARMER TO THE EAST. OTHER
SUB-FREEZING LOWS WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE PLATTE /NORTH AND
SOUTH/ RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND
TOPOGRAPHIC DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED.  WILL HANDLE THE FROST/THREAT WITH
AN SPS FOR AREAS WHERE MIN T/S ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35F..BUT
NOT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL SNOW THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY...H85 TEMPERATURES WARM SOME 5-6C ACROSS THE CWA...PROMOTING
HIGHS THAT WILL LARGELY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT WE FEEL THAT
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE WAA POTENTIAL AND THE SNOW PACK
WILL BE A FACTOR.

THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE AN AREA
OF MIDLEVEL FGEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THE
MODELS LARGELY KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SAVE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND LIFT IS SLIGHTLY LACKING.  ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
SANDHILLS...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT IS PRESENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MID RANGE...

MONDAY NIGHT...A DISTURBANCE IN NRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 30 PERCENT MOST
AREAS. MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE H75 TO H5 LAYER WITH THE LOWER
LEVEL FAIRLY DRY. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FCST TO BE LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH. INSTABILITY IS MODEST AT LESS THAN 300 J/KG AT
00Z TUESDAY WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AMPLIFIED NRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
DURING THIS PERIOD AS H85 TEMPS WARM TO 12C-15C BOTH DAYS. HIGHS
NEAR 70 TUESDAY WITH LOWER 70S WEST AND UPPER 60S NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNNY AND DRY BOTH DAYS.

LONG RANGE...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOSED LOW MIGRATES FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO BE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN RESPONSE TO ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE UPPER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY..THEN STILL WARM IN THE 60S
AND 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. BY MID MORNING MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
NORTHERN NEBRASKA MIDDAY MONDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE
IS A THREAT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAF FCSTS. CIGS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE FROM 5000 TO 7000 FT
AGL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE ELKHORN RIVER. THE RIVER GAGE AT ATKINSON CONTINUES TO RISE
CURRENTLY AT 7.8 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET. THE RIVER REACH IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. OTHER RIVERS INCLUDING THE NORTH PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND
PLATTE ARE ELEVATED AND ABOVE ACTION STAGE AT SOME LOCATIONS
INCLUDING LEWELLEN...ROSCOE...AND THE SOUTH PLATTE AT NORTH
PLATTE. NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR THESE RIVER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BUTTLER
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG




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