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000
FXUS63 KOAX 090010
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE ALLOWED WIND AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 6 PM. SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES...AND
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS AND IF ANY MVFR
CIGS WILL SKIRT THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. CONTINUE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 28KTS BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH...TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP IT TO THE
EAST OF KOMA...WHILE OTHERS...BRING IT INTO KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS.
FOR NOW WILL MENTIONS SOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGID 082347
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH HANGS ON OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER. THERE WILL BE A RATHER
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH LONGWAVE TROFS OVER THE E PAC AND
ERN N AMERICA...WITH A RIDGE OVER WRN N AMERICA. IT WILL REACH IS
PEAK AMPLITUDE TONIGHT-TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL
DEAMPLIFICATION. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW PAC THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL FORCE THE E PAC TROF
ONSHORE SAT AND IT`S FCST TO ARRIVE HERE SUN. THE PAST 2 EC/GFS/GEM
RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR SPREAD AND AGREE
WITH THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 12Z/7 AND 00Z/8 UKMET ARE ON THE
FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

SURFACE: THE STATIONARY FRONT (WRN END OF THE COLD ERN USA AIR MASS)
WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES TUE EVE. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
E INTO CNTRL NEB/KS TUE NIGHT AS A PAIR OF CLIPPERS DIVES SSE ALONG
IT. THE FIRST WILL RACE BY WED FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT THU NIGHT. WE
THEN SHOULD SEE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS BRIEFLY INFILTRATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS THE FRONT SURGES BACK S. ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN SAT. SUN
SOME TYPE OF WEAK LOW WILL FORM NEARBY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
TOO STABLE FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

A FEW DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG AND N OF I-80. MOISTURE
IS DECENT...BUT LIFT IS NOT AS FORCING IS NIL.

WED: CLEARING FROM THE W AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.

THU: CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN.

FRI: WE MAY NEED SOME FLURRIES IN THE FCST EVENTUALLY.

FRI NIGHT: CAA.

SAT: SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WE MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
EC MOS OFFER HIGHS OF 21F AND 20F AT GRI.

SUN: DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING FOR MUCH PRECIP. FORCING IS POTENT BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT.

TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT SAT WHICH IT LOOKING COLDER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL.

FOR WARM WX FANS...NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. WE
ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST PART OF WINTER (BASED ON THE
LONG-TERM AVERAGE). HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN WE WON`T SEE
PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LESS GUSTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 082347
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH HANGS ON OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER. THERE WILL BE A RATHER
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH LONGWAVE TROFS OVER THE E PAC AND
ERN N AMERICA...WITH A RIDGE OVER WRN N AMERICA. IT WILL REACH IS
PEAK AMPLITUDE TONIGHT-TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL
DEAMPLIFICATION. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW PAC THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL FORCE THE E PAC TROF
ONSHORE SAT AND IT`S FCST TO ARRIVE HERE SUN. THE PAST 2 EC/GFS/GEM
RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR SPREAD AND AGREE
WITH THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 12Z/7 AND 00Z/8 UKMET ARE ON THE
FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

SURFACE: THE STATIONARY FRONT (WRN END OF THE COLD ERN USA AIR MASS)
WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES TUE EVE. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
E INTO CNTRL NEB/KS TUE NIGHT AS A PAIR OF CLIPPERS DIVES SSE ALONG
IT. THE FIRST WILL RACE BY WED FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT THU NIGHT. WE
THEN SHOULD SEE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS BRIEFLY INFILTRATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS THE FRONT SURGES BACK S. ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN SAT. SUN
SOME TYPE OF WEAK LOW WILL FORM NEARBY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
TOO STABLE FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

A FEW DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG AND N OF I-80. MOISTURE
IS DECENT...BUT LIFT IS NOT AS FORCING IS NIL.

WED: CLEARING FROM THE W AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.

THU: CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN.

FRI: WE MAY NEED SOME FLURRIES IN THE FCST EVENTUALLY.

FRI NIGHT: CAA.

SAT: SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WE MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
EC MOS OFFER HIGHS OF 21F AND 20F AT GRI.

SUN: DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING FOR MUCH PRECIP. FORCING IS POTENT BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT.

TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT SAT WHICH IT LOOKING COLDER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL.

FOR WARM WX FANS...NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. WE
ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST PART OF WINTER (BASED ON THE
LONG-TERM AVERAGE). HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN WE WON`T SEE
PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
LESS GUSTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WITH GOOD
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KOAX 082332
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS AND IF ANY MVFR
CIGS WILL SKIRT THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. CONTINUE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 28KTS BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH...TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP IT TO THE
EAST OF KOMA...WHILE OTHERS...BRING IT INTO KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS.
FOR NOW WILL MENTIONS SOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 082332
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS AND IF ANY MVFR
CIGS WILL SKIRT THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. CONTINUE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 28KTS BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH...TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP IT TO THE
EAST OF KOMA...WHILE OTHERS...BRING IT INTO KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS.
FOR NOW WILL MENTIONS SOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 082332
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS AND IF ANY MVFR
CIGS WILL SKIRT THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA. CONTINUE WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 28KTS BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH...TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE MVFR CIGS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS KEEP IT TO THE
EAST OF KOMA...WHILE OTHERS...BRING IT INTO KOMA FOR A FEW HOURS.
FOR NOW WILL MENTIONS SOME MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLBF 082327 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
527 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WEST WHILE LARGE UPPER
LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
100M+ HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT H5 IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AS WELL. IR SAT PICS INDICATING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN THE TRANSITION ZONE AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN CONCERT. FURTHER
WEST...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN BC AND WEAK UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING WRN STATES RIDGE AS A PV ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH NRN
MEXICO INTO WRN TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP OFF WITH SUNSET AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAKENING ALREADY IN THE PANHANDLE. WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL LIFT COMES AHEAD OF NEXT PV
ANOMALY ROUNDING THE WRN STATES UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE AND THE
TEMPORARY FLATTENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW AND WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TMRW ACROSS THE N. SOME NEG EPV LOCATED IN THE
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODELS HINTING AT SHOWER-TYPE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ONCE SATURATION TAKES PLACES FROM TOP DOWN. WHILE
TEMPS DO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK BY AFTERNOON AT THE SFC...SOUNDING
PROFILES IN THE NRN FCST AREA SUGGESTS GOOD ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE
ACCRETION ZONE AND WET BULB STILL BELOW ZERO C.

TEMPS WILL BE SIGHTLY WARMER TMRW BUT TEMPERED BY THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT MENTIONED. WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE LIGHTER MAKING IT FEEL WARMER
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LOOKING AT A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST CROSS-SECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT...A LAYER OF WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE SEEN IN
THE 275-295K LAYER WHICH IS VERY STABLE. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP
OF THAT LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE -10C TO -14C WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
MIX OF CRYSTAL TYPES FALLING THROUGH AN ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE FORCING IS WEAK...IT COULD STILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

ON SUNDAY...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT
INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER SOURCE LAYER IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 0C. PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THE LAYER COULD BE EXPECTED
TO COOL THE LAYER TO BELOW 0C...BUT THE LOWEST LAYER WOULD STILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS THE LIKELY FORM OF PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL...AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED...WE
WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY LOW AT LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE THIN SLIVER OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWING ON THE WRN NORTH DAKOTA
RADARS WILL ADVANCE SOUTH TO NEAR KVTN BY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
INDICATED AS THIS HAPPENS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
20 ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS EAST OF CHERRY
COUNTY. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.

THE BEST GUESS FOR TUESDAY IS THAT THIS SNOW...WHICH IS ANCHORED
ON A STATIONARY FRONT...WOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AND THE
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NCNTL NEB WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY
2. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC



000
FXUS63 KLBF 082327 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
527 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WEST WHILE LARGE UPPER
LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
100M+ HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT H5 IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AS WELL. IR SAT PICS INDICATING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN THE TRANSITION ZONE AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN CONCERT. FURTHER
WEST...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN BC AND WEAK UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING WRN STATES RIDGE AS A PV ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH NRN
MEXICO INTO WRN TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP OFF WITH SUNSET AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAKENING ALREADY IN THE PANHANDLE. WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL LIFT COMES AHEAD OF NEXT PV
ANOMALY ROUNDING THE WRN STATES UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE AND THE
TEMPORARY FLATTENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW AND WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TMRW ACROSS THE N. SOME NEG EPV LOCATED IN THE
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODELS HINTING AT SHOWER-TYPE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ONCE SATURATION TAKES PLACES FROM TOP DOWN. WHILE
TEMPS DO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK BY AFTERNOON AT THE SFC...SOUNDING
PROFILES IN THE NRN FCST AREA SUGGESTS GOOD ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE
ACCRETION ZONE AND WET BULB STILL BELOW ZERO C.

TEMPS WILL BE SIGHTLY WARMER TMRW BUT TEMPERED BY THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT MENTIONED. WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE LIGHTER MAKING IT FEEL WARMER
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LOOKING AT A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST CROSS-SECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT...A LAYER OF WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE SEEN IN
THE 275-295K LAYER WHICH IS VERY STABLE. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP
OF THAT LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE -10C TO -14C WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
MIX OF CRYSTAL TYPES FALLING THROUGH AN ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE FORCING IS WEAK...IT COULD STILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

ON SUNDAY...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT
INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER SOURCE LAYER IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 0C. PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THE LAYER COULD BE EXPECTED
TO COOL THE LAYER TO BELOW 0C...BUT THE LOWEST LAYER WOULD STILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS THE LIKELY FORM OF PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL...AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED...WE
WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY LOW AT LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE THIN SLIVER OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWING ON THE WRN NORTH DAKOTA
RADARS WILL ADVANCE SOUTH TO NEAR KVTN BY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
INDICATED AS THIS HAPPENS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
20 ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS EAST OF CHERRY
COUNTY. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.

THE BEST GUESS FOR TUESDAY IS THAT THIS SNOW...WHICH IS ANCHORED
ON A STATIONARY FRONT...WOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AND THE
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NCNTL NEB WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY
2. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KLBF 082327 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
527 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WEST WHILE LARGE UPPER
LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
100M+ HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT H5 IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AS WELL. IR SAT PICS INDICATING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN THE TRANSITION ZONE AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN CONCERT. FURTHER
WEST...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN BC AND WEAK UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING WRN STATES RIDGE AS A PV ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH NRN
MEXICO INTO WRN TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP OFF WITH SUNSET AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAKENING ALREADY IN THE PANHANDLE. WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL LIFT COMES AHEAD OF NEXT PV
ANOMALY ROUNDING THE WRN STATES UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE AND THE
TEMPORARY FLATTENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW AND WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TMRW ACROSS THE N. SOME NEG EPV LOCATED IN THE
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODELS HINTING AT SHOWER-TYPE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ONCE SATURATION TAKES PLACES FROM TOP DOWN. WHILE
TEMPS DO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK BY AFTERNOON AT THE SFC...SOUNDING
PROFILES IN THE NRN FCST AREA SUGGESTS GOOD ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE
ACCRETION ZONE AND WET BULB STILL BELOW ZERO C.

TEMPS WILL BE SIGHTLY WARMER TMRW BUT TEMPERED BY THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT MENTIONED. WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE LIGHTER MAKING IT FEEL WARMER
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LOOKING AT A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST CROSS-SECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT...A LAYER OF WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE SEEN IN
THE 275-295K LAYER WHICH IS VERY STABLE. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP
OF THAT LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE -10C TO -14C WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
MIX OF CRYSTAL TYPES FALLING THROUGH AN ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE FORCING IS WEAK...IT COULD STILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

ON SUNDAY...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT
INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER SOURCE LAYER IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 0C. PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THE LAYER COULD BE EXPECTED
TO COOL THE LAYER TO BELOW 0C...BUT THE LOWEST LAYER WOULD STILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS THE LIKELY FORM OF PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL...AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED...WE
WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY LOW AT LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE THIN SLIVER OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWING ON THE WRN NORTH DAKOTA
RADARS WILL ADVANCE SOUTH TO NEAR KVTN BY MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE
INDICATED AS THIS HAPPENS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
20 ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS EAST OF CHERRY
COUNTY. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.

THE BEST GUESS FOR TUESDAY IS THAT THIS SNOW...WHICH IS ANCHORED
ON A STATIONARY FRONT...WOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AND THE
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NCNTL NEB WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY
2. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KOAX 082127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SOME MVFR CEILING SHOULD LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO DECREASE CLOUDS BELOW 5000
FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT DOES KEEP
MVFR CEILINGS WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO THAT IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH GUSTS ENDING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 082127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SOME MVFR CEILING SHOULD LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO DECREASE CLOUDS BELOW 5000
FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT DOES KEEP
MVFR CEILINGS WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO THAT IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH GUSTS ENDING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 082127
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SOME MVFR CEILING SHOULD LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO DECREASE CLOUDS BELOW 5000
FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT DOES KEEP
MVFR CEILINGS WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO THAT IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH GUSTS ENDING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KGID 082122
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH HANGS ON OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER. THERE WILL BE A RATHER
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S EAST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHWEST. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALOFT: NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH LONGWAVE TROFS OVER THE E PAC AND
ERN N AMERICA...WITH A RIDGE OVER WRN N AMERICA. IT WILL REACH IS
PEAK AMPLITUDE TONIGHT-TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL
DEAMPLIFICATION. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NW PAC THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL FORCE THE E PAC TROF
ONSHORE SAT AND IT`S FCST TO ARRIVE HERE SUN. THE PAST 2 EC/GFS/GEM
RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR SPREAD AND AGREE
WITH THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 12Z/7 AND 00Z/8 UKMET ARE ON THE
FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

SURFACE: THE STATIONARY FRONT (WRN END OF THE COLD ERN USA AIR MASS)
WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES TUE EVE. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
E INTO CNTRL NEB/KS TUE NIGHT AS A PAIR OF CLIPPERS DIVES SSE ALONG
IT. THE FIRST WILL RACE BY WED FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT THU NIGHT. WE
THEN SHOULD SEE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS BRIEFLY INFILTRATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS THE FRONT SURGES BACK S. ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN SAT. SUN
SOME TYPE OF WEAK LOW WILL FORM NEARBY...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE
TOO STABLE FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.


A FEW DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ALONG AND N OF I-80. MOISTURE
IS DECENT...BUT LIFT IS NOT AS FORCING IS NIL.

WED: CLEARING FROM THE W AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.

THU: CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN.

FRI: WE MAY NEED SOME FLURRIES IN THE FCST EVENTUALLY.

FRI NIGHT: CAA.

SAT: SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WE MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
EC MOS OFFER HIGHS OF 21F AND 20F AT GRI.

SUN: DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING FOR MUCH PRECIP. FORCING IS POTENT BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT.

TEMPS ARE BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT SAT WHICH IT LOOKING COLDER OR POSSIBLY
EVEN MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL.

FOR WARM WX FANS...NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. WE
ARE PAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST PART OF WINTER (BASED ON THE
LONG-TERM AVERAGE). HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT MEAN WE WON`T SEE
PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST IS RESULTING IN VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIE DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 082023
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
223 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WEST WHILE LARGE UPPER
LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
100M+ HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT H5 IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AS WELL. IR SAT PICS INDICATING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN THE TRANSITION ZONE AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN CONCERT. FURTHER
WEST...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN BC AND WEAK UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING WRN STATES RIDGE AS A PV ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH NRN
MEXICO INTO WRN TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP OFF WITH SUNSET AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAKENING ALREADY IN THE PANHANDLE. WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL LIFT COMES AHEAD OF NEXT PV
ANOMALY ROUNDING THE WRN STATES UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE AND THE
TEMPORARY FLATTENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW AND WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TMRW ACROSS THE N. SOME NEG EPV LOCATED IN THE
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODELS HINTING AT SHOWER-TYPE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ONCE SATURATION TAKES PLACES FROM TOP DOWN. WHILE
TEMPS DO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK BY AFTERNOON AT THE SFC...SOUNDING
PROFILES IN THE NRN FCST AREA SUGGESTS GOOD ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE
ACCRETION ZONE AND WET BULB STILL BELOW ZERO C.

TEMPS WILL BE SIGHTLY WARMER TMRW BUT TEMPERED BY THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT MENTIONED. WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE LIGHTER MAKING IT FEEL WARMER
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LOOKING AT A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST CROSS-SECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT...A LAYER OF WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE SEEN IN
THE 275-295K LAYER WHICH IS VERY STABLE. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP
OF THAT LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE -10C TO -14C WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
MIX OF CRYSTAL TYPES FALLING THROUGH AN ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE FORCING IS WEAK...IT COULD STILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

ON SUNDAY...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT
INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER SOURCE LAYER IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 0C. PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THE LAYER COULD BE EXPECTED
TO COOL THE LAYER TO BELOW 0C...BUT THE LOWEST LAYER WOULD STILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS THE LIKELY FORM OF PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL...AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED...WE
WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY LOW AT LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON BUT WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. MID LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF FRONTOGENESIS IS DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WRN SD AND INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB AND THIS
WILL PROGRESS EWD THIS AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH SLIDES SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AREA AND ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD...WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND TWD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE VTN TAF AS A
TEMPO GROUP AFTER 091200. HAVE LEFT OUT OF KLBF TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...STOPPKOTTE




000
FXUS63 KLBF 082023
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
223 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WEST WHILE LARGE UPPER
LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
100M+ HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT H5 IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AS WELL. IR SAT PICS INDICATING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN THE TRANSITION ZONE AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN CONCERT. FURTHER
WEST...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN BC AND WEAK UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING WRN STATES RIDGE AS A PV ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH NRN
MEXICO INTO WRN TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP OFF WITH SUNSET AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAKENING ALREADY IN THE PANHANDLE. WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL LIFT COMES AHEAD OF NEXT PV
ANOMALY ROUNDING THE WRN STATES UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE AND THE
TEMPORARY FLATTENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW AND WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TMRW ACROSS THE N. SOME NEG EPV LOCATED IN THE
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODELS HINTING AT SHOWER-TYPE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ONCE SATURATION TAKES PLACES FROM TOP DOWN. WHILE
TEMPS DO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK BY AFTERNOON AT THE SFC...SOUNDING
PROFILES IN THE NRN FCST AREA SUGGESTS GOOD ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE
ACCRETION ZONE AND WET BULB STILL BELOW ZERO C.

TEMPS WILL BE SIGHTLY WARMER TMRW BUT TEMPERED BY THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT MENTIONED. WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE LIGHTER MAKING IT FEEL WARMER
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LOOKING AT A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST CROSS-SECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT...A LAYER OF WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE SEEN IN
THE 275-295K LAYER WHICH IS VERY STABLE. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP
OF THAT LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE -10C TO -14C WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
MIX OF CRYSTAL TYPES FALLING THROUGH AN ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE FORCING IS WEAK...IT COULD STILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

ON SUNDAY...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT
INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER SOURCE LAYER IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 0C. PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THE LAYER COULD BE EXPECTED
TO COOL THE LAYER TO BELOW 0C...BUT THE LOWEST LAYER WOULD STILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS THE LIKELY FORM OF PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL...AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED...WE
WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY LOW AT LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON BUT WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. MID LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF FRONTOGENESIS IS DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WRN SD AND INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB AND THIS
WILL PROGRESS EWD THIS AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH SLIDES SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AREA AND ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD...WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND TWD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE VTN TAF AS A
TEMPO GROUP AFTER 091200. HAVE LEFT OUT OF KLBF TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...STOPPKOTTE



000
FXUS63 KLBF 082023
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
223 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WEST WHILE LARGE UPPER
LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
100M+ HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT H5 IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AS WELL. IR SAT PICS INDICATING MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN THE TRANSITION ZONE AS WELL AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN CONCERT. FURTHER
WEST...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN BC AND WEAK UPPER LOW
UNDERCUTTING WRN STATES RIDGE AS A PV ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH NRN
MEXICO INTO WRN TX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP OFF WITH SUNSET AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAKENING ALREADY IN THE PANHANDLE. WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL LIFT COMES AHEAD OF NEXT PV
ANOMALY ROUNDING THE WRN STATES UPPER RIDGE. THIS FEATURE AND THE
TEMPORARY FLATTENING OF THE WRN RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TMRW AND WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TMRW ACROSS THE N. SOME NEG EPV LOCATED IN THE
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODELS HINTING AT SHOWER-TYPE PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ONCE SATURATION TAKES PLACES FROM TOP DOWN. WHILE
TEMPS DO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK BY AFTERNOON AT THE SFC...SOUNDING
PROFILES IN THE NRN FCST AREA SUGGESTS GOOD ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE
ACCRETION ZONE AND WET BULB STILL BELOW ZERO C.

TEMPS WILL BE SIGHTLY WARMER TMRW BUT TEMPERED BY THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT MENTIONED. WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE LIGHTER MAKING IT FEEL WARMER
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LOOKING AT A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST CROSS-SECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT...A LAYER OF WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE SEEN IN
THE 275-295K LAYER WHICH IS VERY STABLE. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP
OF THAT LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE -10C TO -14C WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
MIX OF CRYSTAL TYPES FALLING THROUGH AN ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE FORCING IS WEAK...IT COULD STILL
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

ON SUNDAY...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT
INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LAYER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER SOURCE LAYER IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 0C. PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THE LAYER COULD BE EXPECTED
TO COOL THE LAYER TO BELOW 0C...BUT THE LOWEST LAYER WOULD STILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS THE LIKELY FORM OF PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FALL...AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED...WE
WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY LOW AT LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON BUT WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. MID LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF FRONTOGENESIS IS DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WRN SD AND INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB AND THIS
WILL PROGRESS EWD THIS AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH SLIDES SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AREA AND ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD...WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND TWD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE VTN TAF AS A
TEMPO GROUP AFTER 091200. HAVE LEFT OUT OF KLBF TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STOPPKOTTE
SHORT TERM...STOPPKOTTE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...STOPPKOTTE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 081805
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SENT OUT A MINOR UPDATE AS HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IN EASTERN NEBRASKA EXPIRED...BUT CONTINUES IN IOWA. WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES. EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY
AN HOUR TO AGREE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICE AND EXTENDED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR IOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. COVERAGE OF PCPN AND VISIBILITIES FROM OBSERVATIONS AND WEB
CAMS ARE WORSE IN IOWA THAN NEBRASKA. THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE
DIFFERENCE IN EXPIRATION TIME.

TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY YET TODAY BUT WILL SLIDE OFF MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. READINGS UPSTREAM IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WERE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
FLURRIES INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS DECREASE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SOME MVFR CEILING SHOULD LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT KOMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO DECREASE CLOUDS BELOW 5000
FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER THAT. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT DOES KEEP
MVFR CEILINGS WELL INTO THE EVENING...SO THAT IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH GUSTS ENDING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KGID 081759
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOW GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE
SOUTH AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS PICK UP
FOR AGAIN. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS AT 850MB ARE 45 TO 55 MPH DURING THE MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS AT 850MB GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE DURING THE MORNING THEN
LET UP SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AROUND SUNSET THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MUCH MORE RAPIDLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA SENDS A FEW WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL MOSTLY AMOUNT TO SOME CLOUDS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

TONIGHT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW IN AND OUT CLOUDS FROM THE
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN CURRENT
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY DRY...BUT SMALL WAVES COULD GIVE US SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME WITHIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A JET STREAK PASSES NEARBY...PROBABLY JUST TO
THE NORTHEAST. DRY MID-LEVELS COULD MEAN TROUBLE AS FAR AS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...BUT TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN
DOWN ANYTHING OTHER THAN FLURRIES FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A
GENERALLY SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE LONG TERM
UNFOLDS AND THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE. I DID BACK OFF
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES FROM THE INITIALIZED SUPERBLEND FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERING OUR STUBBORN SNOW FIELD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST IS RESULTING IN VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIE DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 081755
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1155 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AT H5 STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP EASTERN CONUS
RIDGE WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SEVE4RAL STRONG WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MODELS ON TRACK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT SOME WHERE ALONG A LINE FROM
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE TODAY. STILL STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE STRONG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND TO THE WEST BREEZY TODAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS DECREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND THEN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT
SOLAR INSOLATION AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN THE LOW 30S WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA. CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
PRECIPITATION. A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE AREA AS A WEAK
LEESIDE LOW FORMS AT THE SURFACE. A 250HPA JET STREAK ALSO MOVES
SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...PROVIDING SOME ENHANCED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO SHOW A FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE
STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE BEST FORCING IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO EXISTS...WITH THE HIGHEST RH GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRIMARILY THE NAM...ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY AND MOST OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STRINGENT ON
MOISTURE...BUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF SATURATION OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS AS IT SEEMED TO FOLLOW 00Z MODEL SUITE WELL. DID USE -
RASN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SFC TEMPS EXCEED 36F...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SUGGESTS ALL SNOW FROM THE TEMP PROFILE IN SOUNDINGS. THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS BELOW THE DGZ...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. MUCH OF THE FORCING EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER IN THE PANHANDLE. DRY AIR ALSO ENTRAINS INTO
THE MID LEVELS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL BY 18Z. LARGE MAX TEMP GRADIENT
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS 850HPA WAA AND WINDS SHOW WARMING AND DRYING
ACROSS THE WEST BUT H85 TEMPS STILL BELOW 0C AND REMNANT CLOUDS NEAR
KONL.

LONG RANGE...THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD NORTHWEST/QUASI ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY. LARGE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE ECE GUIDANCE IS ALMOST 20F
WARMER THAN MEX THURSDAY AND 20F COOLER ON SATURDAY. THE LATTER
ISSUE STEMS FROM ECM BRINGING THE HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THE GFS SWINGS IT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
EURO ALSO DIGS A TROUGH QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY REGIME. ALL IN ALL...WENT WITH STATUS QUO AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT COOLER GFS TEMPS ARE MORE BELIEVABLE THU/FRI
DUE TO REMNANT SNOW PACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON BUT WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. MID LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE FORM OF FRONTOGENESIS IS DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WRN SD AND INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB AND THIS
WILL PROGRESS EWD THIS AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS
UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH SLIDES SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AREA AND ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD...WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND TWD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE VTN TAF AS A
TEMPO GROUP AFTER 091200. HAVE LEFT OUT OF KLBF TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...STOPPKOTTE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 081543 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
943 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES. EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY
AN HOUR TO AGREE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICE AND EXTENDED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR IOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. COVERAGE OF PCPN AND VISIBILITIES FROM OBSERVATIONS AND WEB
CAMS ARE WORSE IN IOWA THAN NEBRASKA. THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE
DIFFERENCE IN EXPIRATION TIME.

TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY YET TODAY BUT WILL SLIDE OFF MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. READINGS UPSTREAM IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WERE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
FLURRIES INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS DECREASE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DECREASING A NOTCH AFTER SUNSET...THEN FINALLY LOSING
THE GUSTS WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 12-15KT AFTER AROUND 06-08Z.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-034-045-052-
     053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-
     030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KOAX 081543 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
943 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES. EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY
AN HOUR TO AGREE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICE AND EXTENDED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR IOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM.

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. COVERAGE OF PCPN AND VISIBILITIES FROM OBSERVATIONS AND WEB
CAMS ARE WORSE IN IOWA THAN NEBRASKA. THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE
DIFFERENCE IN EXPIRATION TIME.

TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY YET TODAY BUT WILL SLIDE OFF MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. READINGS UPSTREAM IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WERE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
FLURRIES INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS DECREASE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DECREASING A NOTCH AFTER SUNSET...THEN FINALLY LOSING
THE GUSTS WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 12-15KT AFTER AROUND 06-08Z.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-034-045-052-
     053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-
     030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KLBF 081154 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
554 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AT H5 STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP EASTERN CONUS
RIDGE WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SEVE4RAL STRONG WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MODELS ON TRACK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT SOME WHERE ALONG A LINE FROM
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE TODAY. STILL STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE STRONG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND TO THE WEST BREEZY TODAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS DECREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND THEN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT
SOLAR INSOLATION AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN THE LOW 30S WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA. CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
PRECIPITATION. A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE AREA AS A WEAK
LEESIDE LOW FORMS AT THE SURFACE. A 250HPA JET STREAK ALSO MOVES
SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...PROVIDING SOME ENHANCED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO SHOW A FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE
STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE BEST FORCING IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO EXISTS...WITH THE HIGHEST RH GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRIMARILY THE NAM...ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY AND MOST OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STRINGENT ON
MOISTURE...BUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF SATURATION OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS AS IT SEEMED TO FOLLOW 00Z MODEL SUITE WELL. DID USE -
RASN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SFC TEMPS EXCEED 36F...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SUGGESTS ALL SNOW FROM THE TEMP PROFILE IN SOUNDINGS. THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS BELOW THE DGZ...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. MUCH OF THE FORCING EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER IN THE PANHANDLE. DRY AIR ALSO ENTRAINS INTO
THE MID LEVELS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL BY 18Z. LARGE MAX TEMP GRADIENT
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS 850HPA WAA AND WINDS SHOW WARMING AND DRYING
ACROSS THE WEST BUT H85 TEMPS STILL BELOW 0C AND REMNANT CLOUDS NEAR
KONL.

LONG RANGE...THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD NORTHWEST/QUASI ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY. LARGE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE ECE GUIDANCE IS ALMOST 20F
WARMER THAN MEX THURSDAY AND 20F COOLER ON SATURDAY. THE LATTER
ISSUE STEMS FROM ECM BRINGING THE HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THE GFS SWINGS IT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
EURO ALSO DIGS A TROUGH QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY REGIME. ALL IN ALL...WENT WITH STATUS QUO AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT COOLER GFS TEMPS ARE MORE BELIEVABLE THU/FRI
DUE TO REMNANT SNOW PACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 081154 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
554 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AT H5 STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP EASTERN CONUS
RIDGE WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SEVE4RAL STRONG WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MODELS ON TRACK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT SOME WHERE ALONG A LINE FROM
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE TODAY. STILL STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE STRONG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND TO THE WEST BREEZY TODAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS DECREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND THEN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT
SOLAR INSOLATION AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN THE LOW 30S WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA. CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
PRECIPITATION. A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE AREA AS A WEAK
LEESIDE LOW FORMS AT THE SURFACE. A 250HPA JET STREAK ALSO MOVES
SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...PROVIDING SOME ENHANCED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO SHOW A FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE
STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE BEST FORCING IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO EXISTS...WITH THE HIGHEST RH GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRIMARILY THE NAM...ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY AND MOST OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STRINGENT ON
MOISTURE...BUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF SATURATION OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS AS IT SEEMED TO FOLLOW 00Z MODEL SUITE WELL. DID USE -
RASN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SFC TEMPS EXCEED 36F...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SUGGESTS ALL SNOW FROM THE TEMP PROFILE IN SOUNDINGS. THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS BELOW THE DGZ...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. MUCH OF THE FORCING EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER IN THE PANHANDLE. DRY AIR ALSO ENTRAINS INTO
THE MID LEVELS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL BY 18Z. LARGE MAX TEMP GRADIENT
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS 850HPA WAA AND WINDS SHOW WARMING AND DRYING
ACROSS THE WEST BUT H85 TEMPS STILL BELOW 0C AND REMNANT CLOUDS NEAR
KONL.

LONG RANGE...THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD NORTHWEST/QUASI ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY. LARGE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE ECE GUIDANCE IS ALMOST 20F
WARMER THAN MEX THURSDAY AND 20F COOLER ON SATURDAY. THE LATTER
ISSUE STEMS FROM ECM BRINGING THE HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THE GFS SWINGS IT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
EURO ALSO DIGS A TROUGH QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY REGIME. ALL IN ALL...WENT WITH STATUS QUO AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT COOLER GFS TEMPS ARE MORE BELIEVABLE THU/FRI
DUE TO REMNANT SNOW PACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...POWER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 081154 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
554 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AT H5 STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP EASTERN CONUS
RIDGE WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SEVE4RAL STRONG WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MODELS ON TRACK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT SOME WHERE ALONG A LINE FROM
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE TODAY. STILL STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE STRONG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND TO THE WEST BREEZY TODAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS DECREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND THEN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT
SOLAR INSOLATION AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN THE LOW 30S WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA. CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
PRECIPITATION. A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE AREA AS A WEAK
LEESIDE LOW FORMS AT THE SURFACE. A 250HPA JET STREAK ALSO MOVES
SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...PROVIDING SOME ENHANCED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO SHOW A FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE
STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE BEST FORCING IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO EXISTS...WITH THE HIGHEST RH GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRIMARILY THE NAM...ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY AND MOST OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STRINGENT ON
MOISTURE...BUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF SATURATION OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS AS IT SEEMED TO FOLLOW 00Z MODEL SUITE WELL. DID USE -
RASN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SFC TEMPS EXCEED 36F...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SUGGESTS ALL SNOW FROM THE TEMP PROFILE IN SOUNDINGS. THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS BELOW THE DGZ...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. MUCH OF THE FORCING EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER IN THE PANHANDLE. DRY AIR ALSO ENTRAINS INTO
THE MID LEVELS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL BY 18Z. LARGE MAX TEMP GRADIENT
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS 850HPA WAA AND WINDS SHOW WARMING AND DRYING
ACROSS THE WEST BUT H85 TEMPS STILL BELOW 0C AND REMNANT CLOUDS NEAR
KONL.

LONG RANGE...THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD NORTHWEST/QUASI ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY. LARGE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE ECE GUIDANCE IS ALMOST 20F
WARMER THAN MEX THURSDAY AND 20F COOLER ON SATURDAY. THE LATTER
ISSUE STEMS FROM ECM BRINGING THE HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THE GFS SWINGS IT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
EURO ALSO DIGS A TROUGH QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY REGIME. ALL IN ALL...WENT WITH STATUS QUO AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT COOLER GFS TEMPS ARE MORE BELIEVABLE THU/FRI
DUE TO REMNANT SNOW PACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 081142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
542 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DECREASING A NOTCH AFTER SUNSET...THEN FINALLY LOSING
THE GUSTS WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 12-15KT AFTER AROUND 06-08Z.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ015-034-045-052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 081142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
542 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DECREASING A NOTCH AFTER SUNSET...THEN FINALLY LOSING
THE GUSTS WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 12-15KT AFTER AROUND 06-08Z.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ015-034-045-052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 081142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
542 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DECREASING A NOTCH AFTER SUNSET...THEN FINALLY LOSING
THE GUSTS WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 12-15KT AFTER AROUND 06-08Z.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ015-034-045-052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 081142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
542 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DECREASING A NOTCH AFTER SUNSET...THEN FINALLY LOSING
THE GUSTS WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 12-15KT AFTER AROUND 06-08Z.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ015-034-045-052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 081142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
542 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF TODAY...WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DECREASING A NOTCH AFTER SUNSET...THEN FINALLY LOSING
THE GUSTS WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 12-15KT AFTER AROUND 06-08Z.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ015-034-045-052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KGID 081130
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
530 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOW GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE
SOUTH AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS PICK UP
FOR AGAIN. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS AT 850MB ARE 45 TO 55 MPH DURING THE MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS AT 850MB GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE DURING THE MORNING THEN
LET UP SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AROUND SUNSET THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MUCH MORE RAPIDLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA SENDS A FEW WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL MOSTLY AMOUNT TO SOME CLOUDS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

TONIGHT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW IN AND OUT CLOUDS FROM THE
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN CURRENT
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY DRY...BUT SMALL WAVES COULD GIVE US SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME WITHIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A JET STREAK PASSES NEARBY...PROBABLY JUST TO
THE NORTHEAST. DRY MID-LEVELS COULD MEAN TROUBLE AS FAR AS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...BUT TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN
DOWN ANYTHING OTHER THAN FLURRIES FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A
GENERALLY SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE LONG TERM
UNFOLDS AND THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE. I DID BACK OFF
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES FROM THE INITIALIZED SUPERBLEND FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERING OUR STUBBORN SNOW FIELD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THERE WILL BE SOME IN AND OUT CLOUDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
KGRI TERMINAL...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE WIND. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TODAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TOWARD SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 080959
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOW GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE
SOUTH AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS PICK UP
FOR AGAIN. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS AT 850MB ARE 45 TO 55 MPH DURING THE MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS AT 850MB GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE DURING THE MORNING THEN
LET UP SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. AROUND SUNSET THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MUCH MORE RAPIDLY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA SENDS A FEW WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL MOSTLY AMOUNT TO SOME CLOUDS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.

TONIGHT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW IN AND OUT CLOUDS FROM THE
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN CURRENT
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY DRY...BUT SMALL WAVES COULD GIVE US SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME WITHIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A JET STREAK PASSES NEARBY...PROBABLY JUST TO
THE NORTHEAST. DRY MID-LEVELS COULD MEAN TROUBLE AS FAR AS FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...BUT TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN
DOWN ANYTHING OTHER THAN FLURRIES FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A
GENERALLY SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE LONG TERM
UNFOLDS AND THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE. I DID BACK OFF
HIGHS UP TO 5 DEGREES FROM THE INITIALIZED SUPERBLEND FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERING OUR STUBBORN SNOW FIELD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT.
THERE ARE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW OF
THEM COULD PUSH WEST ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE KGRI TERMINAL...BUT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KOAX 080947
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
347 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY.

08/00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO TO MID-MS VALLEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE
NATION.  A 90-95 KT JET STREAK OBSERVED AT 500 MB FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM AGL
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NW-SE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS FROM
SERN SD/SWRN MN INTO NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.

CONSENSUS OF LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MID MORNING.  NONETHELESS...THE RECENT DUSTING OF SNOW
COUPLED WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...SO WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON.  OTHERWISE...09Z METAR DATA ACROSS THE
REGION INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH. WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX TODAY...THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
PROMOTE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING TODAY
AREAWIDE. AS SUCH...WE WILL TEMPORALLY EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 18Z TO 23Z. SPEAKING OF
MIXING...THIS PROCESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WHILE WE MAY SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM W-TO-E ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL OFFSET ANY DIABATIC WARMING WITH ONLY A SMALL
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S INTO MID WEEK...SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THAT AN INCREASE IN LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
COULD FOSTER A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL AND
PERHAPS NERN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...WHICH IS
THE WAY WE WILL LEAN AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  IN
GENERAL...THESE DATA INDICATE THE GRADUAL EWD SHIFT AND DE-
AMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH RE-INTENSIFIES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW IN THE MID-
LEVELS WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THIS FLOW REGIME.  WHILE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE
HIGH WITH THESE TRANSITORY SYSTEMS...THEY WILL AUGMENT THE LOCATION
OF THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  DETAILS IN THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL...AND AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS RATHER LOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL TEMPORARILY DAMPEN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...PRIOR TO TRACKING INTO
THE N-CNTRL U.S. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS MEAN
IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS IMPULSE WILL BE RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE IN
CHARACTER.  IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. CERTAINTY IN EITHER SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40KT RANGE WILL PERSIST AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KOMA THROUGH
MID MORNING...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...WITH
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. KOFK AND KLNK SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
THE BEST SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
AT THOSE SITES.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ015-034-045-052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 080902
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AT H5 STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP EASTERN CONUS
RIDGE WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SEVE4RAL STRONG WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MODELS ON TRACK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT SOME WHERE ALONG A LINE FROM
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE TODAY. STILL STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE STRONG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND TO THE WEST BREEZY TODAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS DECREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND THEN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT
SOLAR INSOLATION AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN THE LOW 30S WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA. CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
PRECIPITATION. A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE AREA AS A WEAK
LEESIDE LOW FORMS AT THE SURFACE. A 250HPA JET STREAK ALSO MOVES
SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...PROVIDING SOME ENHANCED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO SHOW A FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE
STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE BEST FORCING IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO EXISTS...WITH THE HIGHEST RH GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRIMARILY THE NAM...ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY AND MOST OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STRINGENT ON
MOISTURE...BUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF SATURATION OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS AS IT SEEMED TO FOLLOW 00Z MODEL SUITE WELL. DID USE -
RASN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SFC TEMPS EXCEED 36F...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SUGGESTS ALL SNOW FROM THE TEMP PROFILE IN SOUNDINGS. THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS BELOW THE DGZ...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. MUCH OF THE FORCING EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER IN THE PANHANDLE. DRY AIR ALSO ENTRAINS INTO
THE MID LEVELS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL BY 18Z. LARGE MAX TEMP GRADIENT
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS 850HPA WAA AND WINDS SHOW WARMING AND DRYING
ACROSS THE WEST BUT H85 TEMPS STILL BELOW 0C AND REMNANT CLOUDS NEAR
KONL.

LONG RANGE...THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD NORTHWEST/QUASI ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY. LARGE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE ECE GUIDANCE IS ALMOST 20F
WARMER THAN MEX THURSDAY AND 20F COOLER ON SATURDAY. THE LATTER
ISSUE STEMS FROM ECM BRINGING THE HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THE GFS SWINGS IT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
EURO ALSO DIGS A TROUGH QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY REGIME. ALL IN ALL...WENT WITH STATUS QUO AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT COOLER GFS TEMPS ARE MORE BELIEVABLE THU/FRI
DUE TO REMNANT SNOW PACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KVTN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
WINDS DECOUPLING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. AT KLBF...WINDS 31013G22KT
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO 32020G28KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO DECOUPLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 080902
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AT H5 STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP EASTERN CONUS
RIDGE WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SEVE4RAL STRONG WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MODELS ON TRACK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT SOME WHERE ALONG A LINE FROM
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE TODAY. STILL STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE STRONG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND TO THE WEST BREEZY TODAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS DECREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND THEN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT
SOLAR INSOLATION AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN THE LOW 30S WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA. CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
PRECIPITATION. A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE AREA AS A WEAK
LEESIDE LOW FORMS AT THE SURFACE. A 250HPA JET STREAK ALSO MOVES
SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...PROVIDING SOME ENHANCED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO SHOW A FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE
STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE BEST FORCING IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO EXISTS...WITH THE HIGHEST RH GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRIMARILY THE NAM...ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY AND MOST OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STRINGENT ON
MOISTURE...BUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF SATURATION OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS AS IT SEEMED TO FOLLOW 00Z MODEL SUITE WELL. DID USE -
RASN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SFC TEMPS EXCEED 36F...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SUGGESTS ALL SNOW FROM THE TEMP PROFILE IN SOUNDINGS. THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS BELOW THE DGZ...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. MUCH OF THE FORCING EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER IN THE PANHANDLE. DRY AIR ALSO ENTRAINS INTO
THE MID LEVELS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL BY 18Z. LARGE MAX TEMP GRADIENT
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS 850HPA WAA AND WINDS SHOW WARMING AND DRYING
ACROSS THE WEST BUT H85 TEMPS STILL BELOW 0C AND REMNANT CLOUDS NEAR
KONL.

LONG RANGE...THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD NORTHWEST/QUASI ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY. LARGE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE ECE GUIDANCE IS ALMOST 20F
WARMER THAN MEX THURSDAY AND 20F COOLER ON SATURDAY. THE LATTER
ISSUE STEMS FROM ECM BRINGING THE HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THE GFS SWINGS IT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
EURO ALSO DIGS A TROUGH QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY REGIME. ALL IN ALL...WENT WITH STATUS QUO AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT COOLER GFS TEMPS ARE MORE BELIEVABLE THU/FRI
DUE TO REMNANT SNOW PACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KVTN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
WINDS DECOUPLING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. AT KLBF...WINDS 31013G22KT
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO 32020G28KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO DECOUPLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...ROBERG



000
FXUS63 KLBF 080902
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AT H5 STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DEEP EASTERN CONUS
RIDGE WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SEVE4RAL STRONG WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MODELS ON TRACK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT SOME WHERE ALONG A LINE FROM
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE TODAY. STILL STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE STRONG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND TO THE WEST BREEZY TODAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS DECREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND THEN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT
SOLAR INSOLATION AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA IN THE LOW 30S WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA. CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MID RANGE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
PRECIPITATION. A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE AREA AS A WEAK
LEESIDE LOW FORMS AT THE SURFACE. A 250HPA JET STREAK ALSO MOVES
SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...PROVIDING SOME ENHANCED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO SHOW A FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE
STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE BEST FORCING IN OUR FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO EXISTS...WITH THE HIGHEST RH GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRIMARILY THE NAM...ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY AND MOST OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STRINGENT ON
MOISTURE...BUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF SATURATION OCCURS LATE TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS AS IT SEEMED TO FOLLOW 00Z MODEL SUITE WELL. DID USE -
RASN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SFC TEMPS EXCEED 36F...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SUGGESTS ALL SNOW FROM THE TEMP PROFILE IN SOUNDINGS. THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS BELOW THE DGZ...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. MUCH OF THE FORCING EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER IN THE PANHANDLE. DRY AIR ALSO ENTRAINS INTO
THE MID LEVELS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL BY 18Z. LARGE MAX TEMP GRADIENT
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS 850HPA WAA AND WINDS SHOW WARMING AND DRYING
ACROSS THE WEST BUT H85 TEMPS STILL BELOW 0C AND REMNANT CLOUDS NEAR
KONL.

LONG RANGE...THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO BROAD NORTHWEST/QUASI ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY. LARGE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AS THE ECE GUIDANCE IS ALMOST 20F
WARMER THAN MEX THURSDAY AND 20F COOLER ON SATURDAY. THE LATTER
ISSUE STEMS FROM ECM BRINGING THE HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THE GFS SWINGS IT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
EURO ALSO DIGS A TROUGH QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE OF A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY REGIME. ALL IN ALL...WENT WITH STATUS QUO AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT COOLER GFS TEMPS ARE MORE BELIEVABLE THU/FRI
DUE TO REMNANT SNOW PACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KVTN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
WINDS DECOUPLING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. AT KLBF...WINDS 31013G22KT
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO 32020G28KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO DECOUPLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 080528
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND FAR
EASTERN NEBRASKA AS VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A MILE OR LESS IN
SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM SNOWS LOOK LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH ANY
SNOWFALL WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. SEVERAL
IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY TOUCH
OFF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND A GOOD 7000FT LAYER OF SATURATED DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES WILL
PROVIDE A BACKDROP FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION. AMOUNTS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS HOWEVER. BUT EVEN WHEN THE SNOW IS NOT
FALLING...WILL STILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES THROUGH MONDAY.

100+ KNOT 300 MB WINDS EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN
INTO WYOMING AT 12Z ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DIGGING MID TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH. AT 500 MB...12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 160 METERS WERE
NOTED FROM MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -30 C OR COLDER. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS
NOTED AT BOTH 700 MB AND 850 MB FROM OUR AREA NORTHWEST INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z HAD
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF MINNESOTA AND
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO NEBRASKA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS WELL MIXED WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO
MID 40S. STRONGEST WINDS NOTED SO FAR HAVE MOSTLY BEEN IN WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...HAVE BEEN MOVING DOWN FROM PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. THESE COULD PRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR LOCALLY MORE BUT WOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AND EVEN
SOME VERY LOW CAPE VALUES...THUS THE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND PROBABLY FOR
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NOON MONDAY. FARTHER
SOUTH...WE STARTED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
WILL RUN THAT UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY NEED SOME
ADJUSTMENT THIS EVENING IF STRONG WINDS PUSH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST FASTER.

REGARDING THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...THERE WILL BE SOME...
ESPECIALLY DRIFTING SNOW. AT LEAST FOR NOW...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THAT WITH SPS PRODUCTS. WEB CAMS AND REPORTS UP TO THIS POINT
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS MAINLY DRIFTING...AND NOT BEING LOFTED
HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WILL STILL MENTION SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OUR PRODUCTS
THOUGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SNOW CHANCES DROPPING THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUR
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER MUCH...WITH HIGHS IN THE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THOSE PERIODS WITH BETTER FORCING STAYING TO
OUR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 30S IN SOME
OF OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO 20S IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. A MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
CANADA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH FROM HUDSON
BAY DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD WITH TIME...BUT REMAIN TO OUR WEST UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
OVERALL FLOW SHOULD BECOME LESS MERIDIONAL FROM WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY.

MODELS SHOW SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...BUT IN GENERAL DO NOT
AGREE ON TIMING OR LOCATIONS. WILL HOLD POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
NOW AND ADJUST WITH LATER FORECASTS. HIGHS IN THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S OR 30S...DEPENDING ON IF ANY LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR INTRUSIONS CAN PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...EXPECT SOME MODERATION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40KT RANGE WILL PERSIST AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KOMA THROUGH
MID MORNING...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...WITH
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. KOFK AND KLNK SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
THE BEST SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
AT THOSE SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ045-052-053-
     067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ051-065-066-
     078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-
     030>033-042>044-050.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ015-034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 080528
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND FAR
EASTERN NEBRASKA AS VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A MILE OR LESS IN
SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM SNOWS LOOK LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH ANY
SNOWFALL WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. SEVERAL
IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY TOUCH
OFF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND A GOOD 7000FT LAYER OF SATURATED DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES WILL
PROVIDE A BACKDROP FOR EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION. AMOUNTS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS HOWEVER. BUT EVEN WHEN THE SNOW IS NOT
FALLING...WILL STILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES THROUGH MONDAY.

100+ KNOT 300 MB WINDS EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN
INTO WYOMING AT 12Z ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DIGGING MID TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH. AT 500 MB...12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 160 METERS WERE
NOTED FROM MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -30 C OR COLDER. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS
NOTED AT BOTH 700 MB AND 850 MB FROM OUR AREA NORTHWEST INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z HAD
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF MINNESOTA AND
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO NEBRASKA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS WELL MIXED WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO
MID 40S. STRONGEST WINDS NOTED SO FAR HAVE MOSTLY BEEN IN WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...HAVE BEEN MOVING DOWN FROM PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. THESE COULD PRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR LOCALLY MORE BUT WOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AND EVEN
SOME VERY LOW CAPE VALUES...THUS THE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND PROBABLY FOR
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NOON MONDAY. FARTHER
SOUTH...WE STARTED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
WILL RUN THAT UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY NEED SOME
ADJUSTMENT THIS EVENING IF STRONG WINDS PUSH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST FASTER.

REGARDING THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...THERE WILL BE SOME...
ESPECIALLY DRIFTING SNOW. AT LEAST FOR NOW...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THAT WITH SPS PRODUCTS. WEB CAMS AND REPORTS UP TO THIS POINT
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS MAINLY DRIFTING...AND NOT BEING LOFTED
HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WILL STILL MENTION SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OUR PRODUCTS
THOUGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SNOW CHANCES DROPPING THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUR
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER MUCH...WITH HIGHS IN THE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THOSE PERIODS WITH BETTER FORCING STAYING TO
OUR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 30S IN SOME
OF OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO 20S IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. A MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
CANADA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH FROM HUDSON
BAY DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD WITH TIME...BUT REMAIN TO OUR WEST UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
OVERALL FLOW SHOULD BECOME LESS MERIDIONAL FROM WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY.

MODELS SHOW SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...BUT IN GENERAL DO NOT
AGREE ON TIMING OR LOCATIONS. WILL HOLD POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
NOW AND ADJUST WITH LATER FORECASTS. HIGHS IN THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S OR 30S...DEPENDING ON IF ANY LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR INTRUSIONS CAN PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...EXPECT SOME MODERATION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40KT RANGE WILL PERSIST AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KOMA THROUGH
MID MORNING...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...WITH
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. KOFK AND KLNK SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
THE BEST SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL...WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
AT THOSE SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ015-034-045-
     052-053-067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ045-052-053-
     067-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ051-065-066-
     078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-
     030>033-042>044-050.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ015-034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 080526
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE HIGH WINDS AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STOUT 120KT UPPER
JET...WITH UPWARDS OF 50+ KTS AT H85 THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST WINDS DOES BEGIN SHIFT EAST...SO A
GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY.  IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ON MONDAY ARE NOT AS
STEEP...THUS THE FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WIND
HEADLINES BEYOND 00Z TONIGHT.  CUSTER...MCPHERSON AND LOGAN COUNTIES
WERE ADDED TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON BASED OFF OF HIGH
WIND CRITERIA FROM KTIF AND KBBW.

AN AREA OF FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR QPF HAS PUSHED SOUTH
FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS NW NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK OMEGA IS
PRESENT IN THE DGZ...WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN.  SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AT BEST.  OF NOTE...KONL BRIEFLY DROPPED TO 3SM UNDER A
SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS UNTIL JUST BEYOND 06Z ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE TRENDED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO DECOUPLE WITH THE EXPECTED GUSTY
CONDITIONS.  FOR MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY AS CAA FUNNELS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS IN A VERY STABLE 275-295K LAYER OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE LAYER IS SATURATED...THE LIFT IS
IN THE -5C TO -10C LAYER AND THE ICE CRYSTALS WILL NOT BE DENDRITIC.
THE TEMPERATURE SLOT IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SUPER-
COOLED WATER AND THE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS TO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THAT SHOULD ALSO RESULT
IN A FAIRLY LOW SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO AND LITTLE...IF ANY...
ACCUMULATION.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST BREAKS DOWN...LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KVTN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
WINDS DECOUPLING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. AT KLBF...WINDS 31013G22KT
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO 32020G28KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO DECOUPLE AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KGID 080524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1124 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT.
THERE ARE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW OF
THEM COULD PUSH WEST ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE KGRI TERMINAL...BUT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 080524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1124 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT.
THERE ARE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW OF
THEM COULD PUSH WEST ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE KGRI TERMINAL...BUT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 080524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1124 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT.
THERE ARE A FEW LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW OF
THEM COULD PUSH WEST ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE KGRI TERMINAL...BUT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 072355
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
555 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
STIFF NORTHWESTERLY WIND CONTINUES AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE WINDS MAY RELAX 5-10 KTS NEAR THE GROUND OVERNIGHT...WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR 55 KTS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
WIND SHEAR. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME NEAR MVFR CLOUDS TO FILTER
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING...AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SKIES CLEAR DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND
08/14Z...GUSTING TO NEAR 35KTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 072355
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
555 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
STIFF NORTHWESTERLY WIND CONTINUES AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE WINDS MAY RELAX 5-10 KTS NEAR THE GROUND OVERNIGHT...WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR 55 KTS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
WIND SHEAR. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME NEAR MVFR CLOUDS TO FILTER
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING...AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SKIES CLEAR DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND
08/14Z...GUSTING TO NEAR 35KTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 072355
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
555 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
STIFF NORTHWESTERLY WIND CONTINUES AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
WHILE WINDS MAY RELAX 5-10 KTS NEAR THE GROUND OVERNIGHT...WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR 55 KTS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
WIND SHEAR. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SOME NEAR MVFR CLOUDS TO FILTER
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING...AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SKIES CLEAR DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND
08/14Z...GUSTING TO NEAR 35KTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KOAX 072344
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
544 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES THROUGH MONDAY.

100+ KNOT 300 MB WINDS EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN
INTO WYOMING AT 12Z ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DIGGING MID TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH. AT 500 MB...12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 160 METERS WERE
NOTED FROM MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -30 C OR COLDER. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS
NOTED AT BOTH 700 MB AND 850 MB FROM OUR AREA NORTHWEST INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z HAD
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF MINNESOTA AND
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO NEBRASKA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS WELL MIXED WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO
MID 40S. STRONGEST WINDS NOTED SO FAR HAVE MOSTLY BEEN IN WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...HAVE BEEN MOVING DOWN FROM PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. THESE COULD PRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR LOCALLY MORE BUT WOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AND EVEN
SOME VERY LOW CAPE VALUES...THUS THE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND PROBABLY FOR
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NOON MONDAY. FARTHER
SOUTH...WE STARTED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
WILL RUN THAT UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY NEED SOME
ADJUSTMENT THIS EVENING IF STRONG WINDS PUSH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST FASTER.

REGARDING THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...THERE WILL BE SOME...
ESPECIALLY DRIFTING SNOW. AT LEAST FOR NOW...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THAT WITH SPS PRODUCTS. WEB CAMS AND REPORTS UP TO THIS POINT
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS MAINLY DRIFTING...AND NOT BEING LOFTED
HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WILL STILL MENTION SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OUR PRODUCTS
THOUGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SNOW CHANCES DROPPING THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUR
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER MUCH...WITH HIGHS IN THE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THOSE PERIODS WITH BETTER FORCING STAYING TO
OUR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 30S IN SOME
OF OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO 20S IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. A MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
CANADA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH FROM HUDSON
BAY DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD WITH TIME...BUT REMAIN TO OUR WEST UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
OVERALL FLOW SHOULD BECOME LESS MERIDIONAL FROM WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY.

MODELS SHOW SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...BUT IN GENERAL DO NOT
AGREE ON TIMING OR LOCATIONS. WILL HOLD POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
NOW AND ADJUST WITH LATER FORECASTS. HIGHS IN THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S OR 30S...DEPENDING ON IF ANY LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR INTRUSIONS CAN PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...EXPECT SOME MODERATION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RULE THE TAF PERIOD AS NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS HOLD IN THE 25 TO 40 KT RANGE. A MID LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA COULD CAUSE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
06Z...WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED...HOWEVER BRIEF IFR VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR
NEAR FL040...BUT WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 06Z AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL
18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ045-051>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 072344
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
544 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES THROUGH MONDAY.

100+ KNOT 300 MB WINDS EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN
INTO WYOMING AT 12Z ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DIGGING MID TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH. AT 500 MB...12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 160 METERS WERE
NOTED FROM MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -30 C OR COLDER. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS
NOTED AT BOTH 700 MB AND 850 MB FROM OUR AREA NORTHWEST INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z HAD
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF MINNESOTA AND
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO NEBRASKA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS WELL MIXED WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO
MID 40S. STRONGEST WINDS NOTED SO FAR HAVE MOSTLY BEEN IN WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...HAVE BEEN MOVING DOWN FROM PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. THESE COULD PRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR LOCALLY MORE BUT WOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AND EVEN
SOME VERY LOW CAPE VALUES...THUS THE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND PROBABLY FOR
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NOON MONDAY. FARTHER
SOUTH...WE STARTED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
WILL RUN THAT UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY NEED SOME
ADJUSTMENT THIS EVENING IF STRONG WINDS PUSH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST FASTER.

REGARDING THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...THERE WILL BE SOME...
ESPECIALLY DRIFTING SNOW. AT LEAST FOR NOW...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THAT WITH SPS PRODUCTS. WEB CAMS AND REPORTS UP TO THIS POINT
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS MAINLY DRIFTING...AND NOT BEING LOFTED
HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WILL STILL MENTION SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OUR PRODUCTS
THOUGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SNOW CHANCES DROPPING THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUR
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER MUCH...WITH HIGHS IN THE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THOSE PERIODS WITH BETTER FORCING STAYING TO
OUR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 30S IN SOME
OF OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO 20S IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. A MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
CANADA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH FROM HUDSON
BAY DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD WITH TIME...BUT REMAIN TO OUR WEST UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
OVERALL FLOW SHOULD BECOME LESS MERIDIONAL FROM WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY.

MODELS SHOW SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...BUT IN GENERAL DO NOT
AGREE ON TIMING OR LOCATIONS. WILL HOLD POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
NOW AND ADJUST WITH LATER FORECASTS. HIGHS IN THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S OR 30S...DEPENDING ON IF ANY LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR INTRUSIONS CAN PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...EXPECT SOME MODERATION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RULE THE TAF PERIOD AS NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS HOLD IN THE 25 TO 40 KT RANGE. A MID LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA COULD CAUSE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
06Z...WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED...HOWEVER BRIEF IFR VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR
NEAR FL040...BUT WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 06Z AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL
18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ045-051>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 072335
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE HIGH WINDS AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STOUT 120KT UPPER
JET...WITH UPWARDS OF 50+ KTS AT H85 THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST WINDS DOES BEGIN SHIFT EAST...SO A
GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY.  IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ON MONDAY ARE NOT AS
STEEP...THUS THE FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WIND
HEADLINES BEYOND 00Z TONIGHT.  CUSTER...MCPHERSON AND LOGAN COUNTIES
WERE ADDED TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON BASED OFF OF HIGH
WIND CRITERIA FROM KTIF AND KBBW.

AN AREA OF FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR QPF HAS PUSHED SOUTH
FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS NW NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK OMEGA IS
PRESENT IN THE DGZ...WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN.  SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AT BEST.  OF NOTE...KONL BRIEFLY DROPPED TO 3SM UNDER A
SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS UNTIL JUST BEYOND 06Z ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE TRENDED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO DECOUPLE WITH THE EXPECTED GUSTY
CONDITIONS.  FOR MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY AS CAA FUNNELS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS IN A VERY STABLE 275-295K LAYER OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE LAYER IS SATURATED...THE LIFT IS
IN THE -5C TO -10C LAYER AND THE ICE CRYSTALS WILL NOT BE DENDRITIC.
THE TEMPERATURE SLOT IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SUPER-
COOLED WATER AND THE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS TO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THAT SHOULD ALSO RESULT
IN A FAIRLY LOW SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO AND LITTLE...IF ANY...
ACCUMULATION.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST BREAKS DOWN...LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WILL BE AN AVIATION CONCERN INTO THIS EVENING. WIND GUST TO
40 KTS WILL REMAIN POSIBLE AT THE KVTN TERMINAL UNTIL 02Z...WITH
GUSTS TO 32KTS OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. AT KLBF...WINDS NEAR
31017G25KT THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056-057-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 072335
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE HIGH WINDS AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STOUT 120KT UPPER
JET...WITH UPWARDS OF 50+ KTS AT H85 THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST WINDS DOES BEGIN SHIFT EAST...SO A
GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY.  IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ON MONDAY ARE NOT AS
STEEP...THUS THE FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WIND
HEADLINES BEYOND 00Z TONIGHT.  CUSTER...MCPHERSON AND LOGAN COUNTIES
WERE ADDED TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON BASED OFF OF HIGH
WIND CRITERIA FROM KTIF AND KBBW.

AN AREA OF FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR QPF HAS PUSHED SOUTH
FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS NW NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK OMEGA IS
PRESENT IN THE DGZ...WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN.  SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AT BEST.  OF NOTE...KONL BRIEFLY DROPPED TO 3SM UNDER A
SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS UNTIL JUST BEYOND 06Z ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE TRENDED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO DECOUPLE WITH THE EXPECTED GUSTY
CONDITIONS.  FOR MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY AS CAA FUNNELS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS IN A VERY STABLE 275-295K LAYER OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE LAYER IS SATURATED...THE LIFT IS
IN THE -5C TO -10C LAYER AND THE ICE CRYSTALS WILL NOT BE DENDRITIC.
THE TEMPERATURE SLOT IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SUPER-
COOLED WATER AND THE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS TO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THAT SHOULD ALSO RESULT
IN A FAIRLY LOW SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO AND LITTLE...IF ANY...
ACCUMULATION.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST BREAKS DOWN...LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WILL BE AN AVIATION CONCERN INTO THIS EVENING. WIND GUST TO
40 KTS WILL REMAIN POSIBLE AT THE KVTN TERMINAL UNTIL 02Z...WITH
GUSTS TO 32KTS OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. AT KLBF...WINDS NEAR
31017G25KT THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056-057-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 072335
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE HIGH WINDS AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STOUT 120KT UPPER
JET...WITH UPWARDS OF 50+ KTS AT H85 THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST WINDS DOES BEGIN SHIFT EAST...SO A
GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY.  IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ON MONDAY ARE NOT AS
STEEP...THUS THE FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WIND
HEADLINES BEYOND 00Z TONIGHT.  CUSTER...MCPHERSON AND LOGAN COUNTIES
WERE ADDED TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON BASED OFF OF HIGH
WIND CRITERIA FROM KTIF AND KBBW.

AN AREA OF FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR QPF HAS PUSHED SOUTH
FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS NW NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK OMEGA IS
PRESENT IN THE DGZ...WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN.  SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AT BEST.  OF NOTE...KONL BRIEFLY DROPPED TO 3SM UNDER A
SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS UNTIL JUST BEYOND 06Z ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE TRENDED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO DECOUPLE WITH THE EXPECTED GUSTY
CONDITIONS.  FOR MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY AS CAA FUNNELS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS IN A VERY STABLE 275-295K LAYER OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE LAYER IS SATURATED...THE LIFT IS
IN THE -5C TO -10C LAYER AND THE ICE CRYSTALS WILL NOT BE DENDRITIC.
THE TEMPERATURE SLOT IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SUPER-
COOLED WATER AND THE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS TO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THAT SHOULD ALSO RESULT
IN A FAIRLY LOW SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO AND LITTLE...IF ANY...
ACCUMULATION.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST BREAKS DOWN...LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WILL BE AN AVIATION CONCERN INTO THIS EVENING. WIND GUST TO
40 KTS WILL REMAIN POSIBLE AT THE KVTN TERMINAL UNTIL 02Z...WITH
GUSTS TO 32KTS OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY. AT KLBF...WINDS NEAR
31017G25KT THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056-057-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG



000
FXUS63 KGID 072210
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LEAVING CEILING AND WIND AS THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES.

WINDS: THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINDY PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 40KT...TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STILL FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER YET STRONG WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 50-55KT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT JUSTIFY A
FORMAL TAF MENTION. SOMETHING FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THOUGH.

CEILING: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGRI). VARIOUS MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...A LOW-END VFR CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT KGRI
BUT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS KEAR. THERE ARE ALSO
SUGGESTIONS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD DECK COULD LOWER INTO HIGH-END
MVFR TERRITORY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT THIS MVFR
POSSIBILITY WITH A "SCT025" MENTION. AGAIN...SOMETHING THE NEXT
FEW TAF CYCLES WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER COULD AFFECT MAINLY KGRI...HAVE OMITTED
ANY PRECIP MENTION AS BETTER CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FOCUS 50-100+ MILES TO THE EAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 072210
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LEAVING CEILING AND WIND AS THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES.

WINDS: THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINDY PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 40KT...TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STILL FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER YET STRONG WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 50-55KT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT JUSTIFY A
FORMAL TAF MENTION. SOMETHING FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THOUGH.

CEILING: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGRI). VARIOUS MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...A LOW-END VFR CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT KGRI
BUT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS KEAR. THERE ARE ALSO
SUGGESTIONS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD DECK COULD LOWER INTO HIGH-END
MVFR TERRITORY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT THIS MVFR
POSSIBILITY WITH A "SCT025" MENTION. AGAIN...SOMETHING THE NEXT
FEW TAF CYCLES WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER COULD AFFECT MAINLY KGRI...HAVE OMITTED
ANY PRECIP MENTION AS BETTER CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FOCUS 50-100+ MILES TO THE EAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 072210
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
COULD AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...CERTAINLY THE MAIN STORY FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH
THESE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AFTER DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE EXISTING SNOW COVER STILL BLANKETING MOST OF
THE CWA IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO EXTENSIVE BLOWING/DRIFTING GIVEN
SEVERAL RECENT FREEZE/RE-FREEZE CYCLES...BUT CERTAINLY AT LEAST
LIMITED/PATCHY BLOWING RIGHT NEAR GROUND-LEVEL IS LIKELY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CAUSE LIMITED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS. HOWEVER...ANY
BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT CURRENTLY SEEM WORTHY OF A FORMAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...WILL AGAIN REMIND
FOLKS THAT NWS HASTINGS AND SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED
30+/GUST 45+ WINDS FOR OVER ONE YEAR NOW DUE TO THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY COMMON. HOWEVER...AT LEAST WITHIN
COUNTIES NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN NEBRASKA...THIS AFTERNOON`S
WIND FITS THE DEFINITION OF WHAT WE USED TO CALL A "HIGH END
ADVISORY"...AND IN FACT A FEW AIRPORT SITES HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 40 MPH
(ORD/AURORA/HASTINGS FOR EXAMPLE)...AND HASTINGS EVEN REACHED A
ONE-TIME WARNING GUST OF 58 MPH JUST BEFORE 3 PM. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
ANY FURTHER INSTANCES OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE...WILL HOLD OFF AN
ISSUING ONE...AND INSTEAD CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE STRONG WIND
WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).

AS FOR THE BIG-PICTURE SCENE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS OF
2130Z/330PM...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CLEARLY INDICATE A POWERFUL BATCH OF NORTHWEST-FLOW ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...FEATURING VARIOUS MID
LEVEL VORT MAXES. ONE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST IA AND
ANOTHER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A MORE CHANNELED AREA OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK BLASTING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS LOCALLY...BETWEEN A STRONG
ROUGHLY 999 MILLIBAR LOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH WEAK-BUT-STEADY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING TO 800+ MILLIBARS AND THUS GOOD DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS PROMOTING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN A TOUCH OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN/NEAR THE EASTERN CWA...THUS PROMOTING
THE PASSING ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AT THIS TIME. TEMP-
WISE...READINGS ACTUALLY CLIMBED A TOUCH WARMER IN MOST AREAS
THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE CWA AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE LOW 40S WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-40S IN KS
ZONES.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY-TO-WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL EASE DOWN A BIT FROM THE
VALUES CURRENTLY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE PARENT VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
STREAK DIGGING ALONG ITS BACK SIDE WILL VERY SLOWLY START SLIDING
EAST TONIGHT. EVEN SO...PRIMARILY THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/4 OR
SO OF THE CWA WILL STILL REMAIN IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE UP TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE THAT BEING SAID...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
EAST OF THE CWA WITHIN FAR EASTERN NEB AND IA. AT THE
SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MIXING HEIGHT/EFFICIENCY SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT...THUS
ALLOWING SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO AVERAGE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. SKY COVER IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.
EVEN IN THE CLEAR AREAS...BREEZES SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
VERY FAR AND NUDGED UP LOWS ROUGHLY 3 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING
MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE MID 20S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: ANOTHER WINDY TO VERY WINDY DAY...BUT AT LEAST THE
RISK FOR LEGITIMATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE-MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO STEADILY RISE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS THE DEEP TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUED TO
DEPART WHILE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST
A BIT. WHILE THIS STILL LEAVES THE LOCAL REGION ALONG THE CORRIDOR
OF VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE TROUGH/RIDGE
INTERFACE...FORCING/MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP
UNLESS A FEW FLURRIES STILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN CWA FIRST THING
IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/DEEP MIXING
STARTS TO LET UP SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY COULD NEARLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH WINDS REALLY
RAMPING UP FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NUDGED UP
SPEEDS ROUGHLY 5 MPH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAYBE NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AT LEAST NOW ADVERTISING SOLID 25-35 MPH
SUSTAINED/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED HOWEVER TO SEE A FEW PLACES AGAIN FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS. FOR NOW THE WIND POTENTIAL IS AGAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SKY-COVER WISE...EXPECT THE DAY TO
START MAINLY CLOUDY EAST AND MAINLY CLEAR WEST...BUT THEN
GENERALLY AVERAGING PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEP MIXING...AGAIN SUSPECT HIGH TEMPS COULD RISE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE THE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVING IN ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TODAY...NOW HAVE THE NORTHEAST
1/2 OF THE CWA IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND SOUTHEAST HALF MID-UPPER
30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AND THUS KEEP THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER
REGIME. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY...WARMER SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST AND
NUMEROUS JET STREAKS WILL BE PRESENT THIS WEEK.

AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CERTAINLY NOT SEEING A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL GENERATE A TON OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE SUCH JET
STREAK IS PROMINENT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SPECIFICALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DAYTIME
WILL NEED SLIGHT POPS AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MENTION INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY UP TO 700 MB...ALTHOUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
SOMEWHAT DRY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT
RATHER THAN A LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS WELL...BEARS MONITORING. THE JET
STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE NOT EQUALLY LINED UP WELL IN THE CROSS
SECTION. THUS...WENT ONLY WITH SLIGHTS FOR NOW AND A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
DAYS THIS WEEK...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP A BIT FURTHER EAST
EACH DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO 40S AND
EVEN 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LEAVING CEILING AND WIND AS THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES.

WINDS: THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINDY PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 40KT...TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STILL FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER YET STRONG WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 50-55KT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT JUSTIFY A
FORMAL TAF MENTION. SOMETHING FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THOUGH.

CEILING: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGRI). VARIOUS MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...A LOW-END VFR CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT KGRI
BUT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS KEAR. THERE ARE ALSO
SUGGESTIONS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD DECK COULD LOWER INTO HIGH-END
MVFR TERRITORY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT THIS MVFR
POSSIBILITY WITH A "SCT025" MENTION. AGAIN...SOMETHING THE NEXT
FEW TAF CYCLES WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER COULD AFFECT MAINLY KGRI...HAVE OMITTED
ANY PRECIP MENTION AS BETTER CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FOCUS 50-100+ MILES TO THE EAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 072055
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES THROUGH MONDAY.

100+ KNOT 300 MB WINDS EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN
INTO WYOMING AT 12Z ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DIGGING MID TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH. AT 500 MB...12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 160 METERS WERE
NOTED FROM MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -30 C OR COLDER. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS
NOTED AT BOTH 700 MB AND 850 MB FROM OUR AREA NORTHWEST INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z HAD
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST TIP OF MINNESOTA AND
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO NEBRASKA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS WELL MIXED WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO
MID 40S. STRONGEST WINDS NOTED SO FAR HAVE MOSTLY BEEN IN WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...HAVE BEEN MOVING DOWN FROM PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. THESE COULD PRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR LOCALLY MORE BUT WOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AND EVEN
SOME VERY LOW CAPE VALUES...THUS THE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND PROBABLY FOR
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.

DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL NOON MONDAY. FARTHER
SOUTH...WE STARTED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
WILL RUN THAT UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY NEED SOME
ADJUSTMENT THIS EVENING IF STRONG WINDS PUSH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST FASTER.

REGARDING THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...THERE WILL BE SOME...
ESPECIALLY DRIFTING SNOW. AT LEAST FOR NOW...DECIDED TO HANDLE
THAT WITH SPS PRODUCTS. WEB CAMS AND REPORTS UP TO THIS POINT
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS MAINLY DRIFTING...AND NOT BEING LOFTED
HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. WILL STILL MENTION SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OUR PRODUCTS
THOUGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SNOW CHANCES DROPPING THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUR
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RECOVER MUCH...WITH HIGHS IN THE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

NO PCPN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THOSE PERIODS WITH BETTER FORCING STAYING TO
OUR WEST.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 30S IN SOME
OF OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO 20S IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. A MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
CANADA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH FROM HUDSON
BAY DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THAT RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD WITH TIME...BUT REMAIN TO OUR WEST UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
OVERALL FLOW SHOULD BECOME LESS MERIDIONAL FROM WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY.

MODELS SHOW SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...BUT IN GENERAL DO NOT
AGREE ON TIMING OR LOCATIONS. WILL HOLD POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
NOW AND ADJUST WITH LATER FORECASTS. HIGHS IN THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S OR 30S...DEPENDING ON IF ANY LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR INTRUSIONS CAN PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...EXPECT SOME MODERATION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EVENING HOURS...GUSTING CLOSE TO
50MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK. BY TONIGHT EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO MOVE IN AND WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR NEZ045-051>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...PEARSON




000
FXUS63 KLBF 072053
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE HIGH WINDS AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.  FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STOUT 120KT UPPER
JET...WITH UPWARDS OF 50+ KTS AT H85 THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST WINDS DOES BEGIN SHIFT EAST...SO A
GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY.  IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ON MONDAY ARE NOT AS
STEEP...THUS THE FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WIND
HEADLINES BEYOND 00Z TONIGHT.  CUSTER...MCPHERSON AND LOGAN COUNTIES
WERE ADDED TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON BASED OFF OF HIGH
WIND CRITERIA FROM KTIF AND KBBW.

AN AREA OF FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR QPF HAS PUSHED SOUTH
FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS NW NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK OMEGA IS
PRESENT IN THE DGZ...WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN.  SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AT BEST.  OF NOTE...KONL BRIEFLY DROPPED TO 3SM UNDER A
SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS UNTIL JUST BEYOND 06Z ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FAVORABLE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE TRENDED WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO DECOUPLE WITH THE EXPECTED GUSTY
CONDITIONS.  FOR MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
SUNDAY AS CAA FUNNELS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS IN A VERY STABLE 275-295K LAYER OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THOUGH THE LAYER IS SATURATED...THE LIFT IS
IN THE -5C TO -10C LAYER AND THE ICE CRYSTALS WILL NOT BE DENDRITIC.
THE TEMPERATURE SLOT IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SUPER-
COOLED WATER AND THE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS TO ACCUMULATE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THAT SHOULD ALSO RESULT
IN A FAIRLY LOW SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO AND LITTLE...IF ANY...
ACCUMULATION.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST BREAKS DOWN...LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 55KTS OR
GREATER FOR KVTN...KANW...AND KONL THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER...BUT
STILL IMPRESSIVE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH HOW THE WIND WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE 0C TEMPERATURES HAVE CREATED
A NICE CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK...BUT WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. IF
THIS OCCURS...SHORT FUSED UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED -RASN SHOWERS MAY SPREAD SW ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BRIEFLY. KONL WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE THE SHOWERS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056-057-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JACOBS




000
FXUS63 KOAX 071959
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
159 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS....SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LATER TODAY INTO
MONDAY.

00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WHICH ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ACTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM IS COMPRISED OF TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES: A
LEAD IMPULSE OVER MN WHICH WILL FORM A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
TRANSLATING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY BY
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS NOT MUCH BAROCLINICITY NOTED WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
THE MORE PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT /AND ASSOCIATED COLD
ADVECTION/ OCCURRING IN THE 850-500-MB LAYER. THIS COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL AID IN STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY WHICH
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGH MOMENTUM FLOW
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DATA FROM HIGHER-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR OVER NERN NEB THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH WILL SPREAD SEWD
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP INTO AT LEAST ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO AN INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS
POINT...WE WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE THE SITUATION...AND AN
EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY OR THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING BY EVENING. FLURRIES MAY PERSIST MONDAY ACROSS THE ERN
CWA...THOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN ECMWF/GFS/NAM GUIDANCE THAT A
N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP FROM CNTRL SD INTO
N-CNTRL NEB MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH LOW POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED IN SOME
OF OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING THE SLOW EWD SHIFT AND GRADUAL DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WRN U.S. RIDGE
WILL ALSO TEMPORARILY DE-AMPLIFY...YIELDING A MORE NWLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO MID-MS VALLEY. THE
MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALIGN IN SIMILAR
FASHION...FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID AND LOWER MO
VALLEY. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT...ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE LATITUDINAL
OSCILLATIONS IN THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...CASTING CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. IN GENERAL...WE CAN SAY THAT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL EXIST IN THE SWRN CWA WITH THE COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW-PROBABILITY CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EVENING HOURS...GUSTING CLOSE TO
50MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK. BY TONIGHT EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO MOVE IN AND WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...PEARSON




000
FXUS63 KGID 071841
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LEAVING CEILING AND WIND AS THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES.

WINDS: THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINDY PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 40KT...TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STILL FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER YET STRONG WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 50-55KT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT JUSTIFY A
FORMAL TAF MENTION. SOMETHING FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THOUGH.

CEILING: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGRI). VARIOUS MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...A LOW-END VFR CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT KGRI
BUT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS KEAR. THERE ARE ALSO
SUGGESTIONS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD DECK COULD LOWER INTO HIGH-END
MVFR TERRITORY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT THIS MVFR
POSSIBILITY WITH A "SCT025" MENTION. AGAIN...SOMETHING THE NEXT
FEW TAF CYCLES WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER COULD AFFECT MAINLY KGRI...HAVE OMITTED
ANY PRECIP MENTION AS BETTER CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FOCUS 50-100+ MILES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 071841
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LEAVING CEILING AND WIND AS THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES.

WINDS: THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINDY PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 40KT...TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STILL FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER YET STRONG WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 50-55KT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT JUSTIFY A
FORMAL TAF MENTION. SOMETHING FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THOUGH.

CEILING: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGRI). VARIOUS MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...A LOW-END VFR CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT KGRI
BUT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS KEAR. THERE ARE ALSO
SUGGESTIONS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD DECK COULD LOWER INTO HIGH-END
MVFR TERRITORY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT THIS MVFR
POSSIBILITY WITH A "SCT025" MENTION. AGAIN...SOMETHING THE NEXT
FEW TAF CYCLES WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER COULD AFFECT MAINLY KGRI...HAVE OMITTED
ANY PRECIP MENTION AS BETTER CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FOCUS 50-100+ MILES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 071841
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LEAVING CEILING AND WIND AS THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES.

WINDS: THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINDY PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 40KT...TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STILL FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER YET STRONG WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 50-55KT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT JUSTIFY A
FORMAL TAF MENTION. SOMETHING FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THOUGH.

CEILING: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGRI). VARIOUS MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...A LOW-END VFR CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT KGRI
BUT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS KEAR. THERE ARE ALSO
SUGGESTIONS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD DECK COULD LOWER INTO HIGH-END
MVFR TERRITORY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT THIS MVFR
POSSIBILITY WITH A "SCT025" MENTION. AGAIN...SOMETHING THE NEXT
FEW TAF CYCLES WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER COULD AFFECT MAINLY KGRI...HAVE OMITTED
ANY PRECIP MENTION AS BETTER CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FOCUS 50-100+ MILES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KLBF 071740
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1140 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG 995MB SURFACE LOW. CUTOFF LOW OVER ALABAMA. HIGH PRESSURE AT
H5 OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE HIGH WINDS. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER GFS SOLUTION. WESTERN NEBRASKA IS
IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG 250MB JET 130+ AND 850MB WINDS
50KTS TO 60KTS OVER HEAD ALL DAY. LAPSE RATES INDICATING WINDS ALOFT
WILL MIX DOWN WITH STRONG CAA AND FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES. HAVE
EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING SOUTH AND INCLUDED ALL OF THE EASTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH COUNTY AREAS PRONE TO BLOW. STRONG
UPPER SUPPORT ALL DAY. WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
HIGHS TODAY AROUND 35F. HAVE INCLUDED A SCHC RAIN SNOW MIX LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CHANGED TO SNOW AFTER 00Z AND
RAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT MAINLY HOLT BOYD AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH A
DUSTING. WITH THE STRONG WINDS TODAY OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD BE CONCERNS WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OBSERVATIONS AND DOR CAMERAS TODAY TO SEE THE EFFECT OF THE WINDS.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT MAY
HAVE TO EXPAND. WINDS WILL STAY AT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE CUT THE WARNING BACK
TO 00Z. LOWS IN THE TEENS WEST AND 20S NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WIND
AND PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAYS SYSTEM CONTINUES
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
850HPA WINDS AROUND 40 KTS IN THE PANHANDLE TO 50 KTS NORTH CENTRAL.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS SUNDAY WITH SFC TO 850 HPA
AROUND 6C/KM PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT
MIXING. ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
NOT EXPECTING A HIGH WIND EVENT. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY AS A 250HPA JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. INTRODUCED -RASN TUE AFTERNOON AND -SN TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500-700 HPA
FRONTOGENSIS AND A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT AS WELL...WITH THE BEST WINDOW GENERALLY
00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY. SATURATION AND OMEGA LIE WELL BELOW THE DGZ SO
ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S...NEAR CLIMO TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SLR WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION TO A
DUSTING AT MOST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY...WESTERN NEBRASKA IS PLACED IN
AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ECE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WAA
MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WHEREAS THE MEX GUIDANCE DELAYS IT
UNTIL THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES USE A GENERAL BLEND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON SNOW PACK EFFECT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ONE OF THE
MILDEST DAYS WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. THE ECM BRINGS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 55KTS OR
GREATER FOR KVTN...KANW...AND KONL THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER...BUT
STILL IMPRESSIVE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH HOW THE WIND WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE 0C TEMPERATURES HAVE CREATED
A NICE CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK...BUT WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. IF
THIS OCCURS...SHORT FUSED UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED -RASN SHOWERS MAY SPREAD SW ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BRIEFLY. KONL WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE THE SHOWERS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035-056-057-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...JACOBS




000
FXUS63 KLBF 071740
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1140 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG 995MB SURFACE LOW. CUTOFF LOW OVER ALABAMA. HIGH PRESSURE AT
H5 OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE HIGH WINDS. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER GFS SOLUTION. WESTERN NEBRASKA IS
IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG 250MB JET 130+ AND 850MB WINDS
50KTS TO 60KTS OVER HEAD ALL DAY. LAPSE RATES INDICATING WINDS ALOFT
WILL MIX DOWN WITH STRONG CAA AND FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES. HAVE
EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING SOUTH AND INCLUDED ALL OF THE EASTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH COUNTY AREAS PRONE TO BLOW. STRONG
UPPER SUPPORT ALL DAY. WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
HIGHS TODAY AROUND 35F. HAVE INCLUDED A SCHC RAIN SNOW MIX LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CHANGED TO SNOW AFTER 00Z AND
RAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT MAINLY HOLT BOYD AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH A
DUSTING. WITH THE STRONG WINDS TODAY OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD BE CONCERNS WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OBSERVATIONS AND DOR CAMERAS TODAY TO SEE THE EFFECT OF THE WINDS.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT MAY
HAVE TO EXPAND. WINDS WILL STAY AT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE CUT THE WARNING BACK
TO 00Z. LOWS IN THE TEENS WEST AND 20S NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WIND
AND PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAYS SYSTEM CONTINUES
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
850HPA WINDS AROUND 40 KTS IN THE PANHANDLE TO 50 KTS NORTH CENTRAL.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS SUNDAY WITH SFC TO 850 HPA
AROUND 6C/KM PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT
MIXING. ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
NOT EXPECTING A HIGH WIND EVENT. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY AS A 250HPA JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. INTRODUCED -RASN TUE AFTERNOON AND -SN TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500-700 HPA
FRONTOGENSIS AND A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT AS WELL...WITH THE BEST WINDOW GENERALLY
00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY. SATURATION AND OMEGA LIE WELL BELOW THE DGZ SO
ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S...NEAR CLIMO TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SLR WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION TO A
DUSTING AT MOST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY...WESTERN NEBRASKA IS PLACED IN
AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ECE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WAA
MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WHEREAS THE MEX GUIDANCE DELAYS IT
UNTIL THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES USE A GENERAL BLEND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON SNOW PACK EFFECT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ONE OF THE
MILDEST DAYS WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. THE ECM BRINGS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 55KTS OR
GREATER FOR KVTN...KANW...AND KONL THIS AFTERNOON. LESSER...BUT
STILL IMPRESSIVE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH HOW THE WIND WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE 0C TEMPERATURES HAVE CREATED
A NICE CRUST ON THE SNOWPACK...BUT WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. IF
THIS OCCURS...SHORT FUSED UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED -RASN SHOWERS MAY SPREAD SW ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BRIEFLY. KONL WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE THE SHOWERS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035-056-057-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...JACOBS




000
FXUS63 KGID 071152
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
552 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIND WILL BE THE BIG ISSUE TODAY. EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
UNTIL SURFACE WIND INCREASES ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS A NON-ISSUE. SNOW
PACK SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS FROM BLOWING MUCH MORE THAN 35 KTS.
SOME BLSN POSSIBLE...BUT SNOW ON THE GROUND IS QUITE HEAVY AND DO
NOT FORESEE VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW P6SM. SOME FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST...BUT THESE
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINAL AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 071152
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
552 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIND WILL BE THE BIG ISSUE TODAY. EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
UNTIL SURFACE WIND INCREASES ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS A NON-ISSUE. SNOW
PACK SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS FROM BLOWING MUCH MORE THAN 35 KTS.
SOME BLSN POSSIBLE...BUT SNOW ON THE GROUND IS QUITE HEAVY AND DO
NOT FORESEE VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW P6SM. SOME FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST...BUT THESE
SHOULD REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINAL AREAS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 071140 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
540 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG 995MB SURFACE LOW. CUTOFF LOW OVER ALABAMA. HIGH PRESSURE AT
H5 OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE HIGH WINDS. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER GFS SOLUTION. WESTERN NEBRASKA IS
IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG 250MB JET 130+ AND 850MB WINDS
50KTS TO 60KTS OVER HEAD ALL DAY. LAPSE RATES INDICATING WINDS ALOFT
WILL MIX DOWN WITH STRONG CAA AND FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES. HAVE
EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING SOUTH AND INCLUDED ALL OF THE EASTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH COUNTY AREAS PRONE TO BLOW. STRONG
UPPER SUPPORT ALL DAY. WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
HIGHS TODAY AROUND 35F. HAVE INCLUDED A SCHC RAIN SNOW MIX LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CHANGED TO SNOW AFTER 00Z AND
RAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT MAINLY HOLT BOYD AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH A
DUSTING. WITH THE STRONG WINDS TODAY OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD BE CONCERNS WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OBSERVATIONS AND DOR CAMERAS TODAY TO SEE THE EFFECT OF THE WINDS.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT MAY
HAVE TO EXPAND. WINDS WILL STAY AT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE CUT THE WARNING BACK
TO 00Z. LOWS IN THE TEENS WEST AND 20S NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WIND
AND PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAYS SYSTEM CONTINUES
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
850HPA WINDS AROUND 40 KTS IN THE PANHANDLE TO 50 KTS NORTH CENTRAL.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS SUNDAY WITH SFC TO 850 HPA
AROUND 6C/KM PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT
MIXING. ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
NOT EXPECTING A HIGH WIND EVENT. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY AS A 250HPA JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. INTRODUCED -RASN TUE AFTERNOON AND -SN TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500-700 HPA
FRONTOGENSIS AND A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT AS WELL...WITH THE BEST WINDOW GENERALLY
00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY. SATURATION AND OMEGA LIE WELL BELOW THE DGZ SO
ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S...NEAR CLIMO TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SLR WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION TO A
DUSTING AT MOST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY...WESTERN NEBRASKA IS PLACED IN
AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ECE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WAA
MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WHEREAS THE MEX GUIDANCE DELAYS IT
UNTIL THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES USE A GENERAL BLEND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON SNOW PACK EFFECT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ONE OF THE
MILDEST DAYS WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. THE ECM BRINGS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL CAUSE STRONG
WINDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SPREAD SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. WINDS AT 850MB WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 50 TO
60KTS. AT THE SURFACE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 50 OR 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KVTN.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUST TO 45 OR 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AT KLBF. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE VFR THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING FROM KANW TO KONL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035-056-057-
094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...POWER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 071140 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
540 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG 995MB SURFACE LOW. CUTOFF LOW OVER ALABAMA. HIGH PRESSURE AT
H5 OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE HIGH WINDS. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER GFS SOLUTION. WESTERN NEBRASKA IS
IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG 250MB JET 130+ AND 850MB WINDS
50KTS TO 60KTS OVER HEAD ALL DAY. LAPSE RATES INDICATING WINDS ALOFT
WILL MIX DOWN WITH STRONG CAA AND FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES. HAVE
EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING SOUTH AND INCLUDED ALL OF THE EASTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH COUNTY AREAS PRONE TO BLOW. STRONG
UPPER SUPPORT ALL DAY. WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
HIGHS TODAY AROUND 35F. HAVE INCLUDED A SCHC RAIN SNOW MIX LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CHANGED TO SNOW AFTER 00Z AND
RAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT MAINLY HOLT BOYD AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH A
DUSTING. WITH THE STRONG WINDS TODAY OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD BE CONCERNS WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OBSERVATIONS AND DOR CAMERAS TODAY TO SEE THE EFFECT OF THE WINDS.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT MAY
HAVE TO EXPAND. WINDS WILL STAY AT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE CUT THE WARNING BACK
TO 00Z. LOWS IN THE TEENS WEST AND 20S NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WIND
AND PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAYS SYSTEM CONTINUES
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
850HPA WINDS AROUND 40 KTS IN THE PANHANDLE TO 50 KTS NORTH CENTRAL.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS SUNDAY WITH SFC TO 850 HPA
AROUND 6C/KM PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT
MIXING. ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
NOT EXPECTING A HIGH WIND EVENT. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY AS A 250HPA JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. INTRODUCED -RASN TUE AFTERNOON AND -SN TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500-700 HPA
FRONTOGENSIS AND A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT AS WELL...WITH THE BEST WINDOW GENERALLY
00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY. SATURATION AND OMEGA LIE WELL BELOW THE DGZ SO
ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S...NEAR CLIMO TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SLR WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION TO A
DUSTING AT MOST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY...WESTERN NEBRASKA IS PLACED IN
AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ECE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WAA
MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WHEREAS THE MEX GUIDANCE DELAYS IT
UNTIL THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES USE A GENERAL BLEND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON SNOW PACK EFFECT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ONE OF THE
MILDEST DAYS WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. THE ECM BRINGS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WILL CAUSE STRONG
WINDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SPREAD SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. WINDS AT 850MB WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 50 TO
60KTS. AT THE SURFACE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 50 OR 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KVTN.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUST TO 45 OR 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AT KLBF. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE VFR THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING FROM KANW TO KONL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035-056-057-
094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 071132
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS....SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LATER TODAY INTO
MONDAY.

00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WHICH ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ACTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM IS COMPRISED OF TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES: A
LEAD IMPULSE OVER MN WHICH WILL FORM A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
TRANSLATING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY BY
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS NOT MUCH BAROCLINICITY NOTED WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
THE MORE PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT /AND ASSOCIATED COLD
ADVECTION/ OCCURRING IN THE 850-500-MB LAYER. THIS COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL AID IN STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY WHICH
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGH MOMENTUM FLOW
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DATA FROM HIGHER-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR OVER NERN NEB THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH WILL SPREAD SEWD
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP INTO AT LEAST ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO AN INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS
POINT...WE WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE THE SITUATION...AND AN
EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY OR THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING BY EVENING. FLURRIES MAY PERSIST MONDAY ACROSS THE ERN
CWA...THOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN ECMWF/GFS/NAM GUIDANCE THAT A
N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP FROM CNTRL SD INTO
N-CNTRL NEB MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH LOW POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED IN SOME
OF OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING THE SLOW EWD SHIFT AND GRADUAL DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WRN U.S. RIDGE
WILL ALSO TEMPORARILY DE-AMPLIFY...YIELDING A MORE NWLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO MID-MS VALLEY. THE
MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALIGN IN SIMILAR
FASHION...FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID AND LOWER MO
VALLEY. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT...ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE LATITUDINAL
OSCILLATIONS IN THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...CASTING CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. IN GENERAL...WE CAN SAY THAT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL EXIST IN THE SWRN CWA WITH THE COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW-PROBABILITY CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID-MORNING TO AROUND 20-25KT
GUSTING TO AROUND 30-35KT AT KOFK...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15-20KT AND
GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30KT AT KOMA/KLNK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE...POTENTIALLY INCREASING A TICK
OVERNIGHT. KOFK AND POSSIBLY KOMA MAY BE AFFECTED BY MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION. ALSO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
IN THE AREA OF KOFK/KOMA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR
NOW...BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
THAT SITES WILL BE AFFECTED ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 071132
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS....SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LATER TODAY INTO
MONDAY.

00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WHICH ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ACTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM IS COMPRISED OF TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES: A
LEAD IMPULSE OVER MN WHICH WILL FORM A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
TRANSLATING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY BY
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS NOT MUCH BAROCLINICITY NOTED WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
THE MORE PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT /AND ASSOCIATED COLD
ADVECTION/ OCCURRING IN THE 850-500-MB LAYER. THIS COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL AID IN STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY WHICH
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGH MOMENTUM FLOW
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DATA FROM HIGHER-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR OVER NERN NEB THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH WILL SPREAD SEWD
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP INTO AT LEAST ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO AN INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS
POINT...WE WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE THE SITUATION...AND AN
EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY OR THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING BY EVENING. FLURRIES MAY PERSIST MONDAY ACROSS THE ERN
CWA...THOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN ECMWF/GFS/NAM GUIDANCE THAT A
N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP FROM CNTRL SD INTO
N-CNTRL NEB MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH LOW POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED IN SOME
OF OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING THE SLOW EWD SHIFT AND GRADUAL DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WRN U.S. RIDGE
WILL ALSO TEMPORARILY DE-AMPLIFY...YIELDING A MORE NWLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO MID-MS VALLEY. THE
MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALIGN IN SIMILAR
FASHION...FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID AND LOWER MO
VALLEY. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT...ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE LATITUDINAL
OSCILLATIONS IN THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...CASTING CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. IN GENERAL...WE CAN SAY THAT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL EXIST IN THE SWRN CWA WITH THE COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW-PROBABILITY CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID-MORNING TO AROUND 20-25KT
GUSTING TO AROUND 30-35KT AT KOFK...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15-20KT AND
GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30KT AT KOMA/KLNK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE...POTENTIALLY INCREASING A TICK
OVERNIGHT. KOFK AND POSSIBLY KOMA MAY BE AFFECTED BY MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION. ALSO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
IN THE AREA OF KOFK/KOMA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR
NOW...BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
THAT SITES WILL BE AFFECTED ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KGID 071042
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. WIND PICKS UP BEHIND COLD FRONT AND COULD BLOW
SOME SNOW.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 071042
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. WIND PICKS UP BEHIND COLD FRONT AND COULD BLOW
SOME SNOW.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 071042
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. WIND PICKS UP BEHIND COLD FRONT AND COULD BLOW
SOME SNOW.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 070929
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG 995MB SURFACE LOW. CUTOFF LOW OVER ALABAMA. HIGH PRESSURE AT
H5 OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE HIGH WINDS. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER GFS SOLUTION. WESTERN NEBRASKA IS
IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG 250MB JET 130+ AND 850MB WINDS
50KTS TO 60KTS OVER HEAD ALL DAY. LAPSE RATES INDICATING WINDS ALOFT
WILL MIX DOWN WITH STRONG CAA AND FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES. HAVE
EXPANDED HIGH WIND WARNING SOUTH AND INCLUDED ALL OF THE EASTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH COUNTY AREAS PRONE TO BLOW. STRONG
UPPER SUPPORT ALL DAY. WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
HIGHS TODAY AROUND 35F. HAVE INCLUDED A SCHC RAIN SNOW MIX LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CHANGED TO SNOW AFTER 00Z AND
RAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT MAINLY HOLT BOYD AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH A
DUSTING. WITH THE STRONG WINDS TODAY OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
COULD BE CONCERNS WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OBSERVATIONS AND DOR CAMERAS TODAY TO SEE THE EFFECT OF THE WINDS.
HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT MAY
HAVE TO EXPAND. WINDS WILL STAY AT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE CUT THE WARNING BACK
TO 00Z. LOWS IN THE TEENS WEST AND 20S NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MID RANGE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WIND
AND PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAYS SYSTEM CONTINUES
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
850HPA WINDS AROUND 40 KTS IN THE PANHANDLE TO 50 KTS NORTH CENTRAL.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS SUNDAY WITH SFC TO 850 HPA
AROUND 6C/KM PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT
MIXING. ALSO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
NOT EXPECTING A HIGH WIND EVENT. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY AS A 250HPA JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. INTRODUCED -RASN TUE AFTERNOON AND -SN TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500-700 HPA
FRONTOGENSIS AND A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT AS WELL...WITH THE BEST WINDOW GENERALLY
00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY. SATURATION AND OMEGA LIE WELL BELOW THE DGZ SO
ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S...NEAR CLIMO TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SLR WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION TO A
DUSTING AT MOST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY...WESTERN NEBRASKA IS PLACED IN
AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ECE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH WAA
MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WHEREAS THE MEX GUIDANCE DELAYS IT
UNTIL THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES USE A GENERAL BLEND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON SNOW PACK EFFECT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ONE OF THE
MILDEST DAYS WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. THE ECM BRINGS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BECOME AN AVIATION
CONCERN AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30027G35KT BY 15Z
AND PEAK NEAR 30034G43KT AFTER 18Z AT KVTN. IN ADDITION...SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. WINDS AT KLBF SIMILAR PEAKING NEAR 30028G39KT AFTER
18Z. WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004>010-022>029-035-056-057-
094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...SNIVELY
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 070915
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS....SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LATER TODAY INTO
MONDAY.

00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WHICH ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ACTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM IS COMPRISED OF TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES: A
LEAD IMPULSE OVER MN WHICH WILL FORM A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
TRANSLATING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY BY
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS NOT MUCH BAROCLINICITY NOTED WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
THE MORE PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT /AND ASSOCIATED COLD
ADVECTION/ OCCURRING IN THE 850-500-MB LAYER. THIS COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL AID IN STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY WHICH
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGH MOMENTUM FLOW
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DATA FROM HIGHER-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR OVER NERN NEB THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH WILL SPREAD SEWD
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP INTO AT LEAST ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO AN INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS
POINT...WE WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE THE SITUATION...AND AN
EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY OR THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING BY EVENING. FLURRIES MAY PERSIST MONDAY ACROSS THE ERN
CWA...THOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN ECMWF/GFS/NAM GUIDANCE THAT A
N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP FROM CNTRL SD INTO
N-CNTRL NEB MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH LOW POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED IN SOME
OF OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING THE SLOW EWD SHIFT AND GRADUAL DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WRN U.S. RIDGE
WILL ALSO TEMPORARILY DE-AMPLIFY...YIELDING A MORE NWLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO MID-MS VALLEY. THE
MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALIGN IN SIMILAR
FASHION...FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID AND LOWER MO
VALLEY. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT...ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE LATITUDINAL
OSCILLATIONS IN THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...CASTING CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. IN GENERAL...WE CAN SAY THAT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL EXIST IN THE SWRN CWA WITH THE COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW-PROBABILITY CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST BY 15Z...AND BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT ARE EXPECTED AT KOFK
FROM 21Z ON. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST NEAR KOFK
AND KOMA AFTER 00Z...WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE TAF RIGHT
NOW.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 070915
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS....SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LATER TODAY INTO
MONDAY.

00Z 500-MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS WHICH ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ACTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM IS COMPRISED OF TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES: A
LEAD IMPULSE OVER MN WHICH WILL FORM A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
TRANSLATING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY BY
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS NOT MUCH BAROCLINICITY NOTED WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
THE MORE PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT /AND ASSOCIATED COLD
ADVECTION/ OCCURRING IN THE 850-500-MB LAYER. THIS COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL AID IN STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY WHICH
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGH MOMENTUM FLOW
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEW DATA FROM HIGHER-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR OVER NERN NEB THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
AREA. THE COLD ADVECTION AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH WILL SPREAD SEWD
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP INTO AT LEAST ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO AN INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS
POINT...WE WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT EVALUATE THE SITUATION...AND AN
EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY OR THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING BY EVENING. FLURRIES MAY PERSIST MONDAY ACROSS THE ERN
CWA...THOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN ECMWF/GFS/NAM GUIDANCE THAT A
N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP FROM CNTRL SD INTO
N-CNTRL NEB MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH LOW POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED IN SOME
OF OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING THE SLOW EWD SHIFT AND GRADUAL DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WRN U.S. RIDGE
WILL ALSO TEMPORARILY DE-AMPLIFY...YIELDING A MORE NWLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO MID-MS VALLEY. THE
MEAN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALIGN IN SIMILAR
FASHION...FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID AND LOWER MO
VALLEY. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT...ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE LATITUDINAL
OSCILLATIONS IN THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...CASTING CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. IN GENERAL...WE CAN SAY THAT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL EXIST IN THE SWRN CWA WITH THE COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A LOW-PROBABILITY CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST BY 15Z...AND BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT ARE EXPECTED AT KOFK
FROM 21Z ON. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST NEAR KOFK
AND KOMA AFTER 00Z...WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE TAF RIGHT
NOW.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KGID 070600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY (IF NOT THE ENTIRE) CWA WILL GET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHOUT SEEING ANY SNOW...THINGS DEFINITELY
REMAIN ON TRACK TO TAKE AN UNPLEASANT TURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WIND SPEEDS CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...WITH MUCH
OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS OF 45+ MPH...AND MAYBE EVEN
AROUND 55 MPH IN NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS MANY READING THIS PRODUCT HAVE KNOWN FOR WELL OVER 1 YEAR
KNOW...NWS HASTINGS (AND OTHER NEIGHBORING WEST/SOUTHWEST OFFICES)
NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED 30+ MPH/GUST 45+ MPH
EVENTS DUE TO THEM BEING FAIRLY COMMON CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUT
BACK IN THE ADVISORY DAYS THIS WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A "SLAM
DUNK" FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT BREACHING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 40+/GUST 58+ MPH...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
A CLOSE CALL ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW EFFICIENT MIXING PROVES TO
BE. ALSO AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL
BLOWING SNOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT PHYSICAL STATE AFTER VARIOUS
MELT/RE-FREEZE CYCLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SUPPOSE SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
EVERYTHING ALREADY MENTIONED...A FAIRLY TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
CONTINUES THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A BATTLE BETWEEN VARIOUS
FACTORS INCLUDING SNOW COVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING
ETC.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 21Z/3PM...OTHER THAN SOME
AREAS FALLING A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FROM
WHAT WAS FORECASTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALSO BECOMING A BIT
BREEZIER/GUSTIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT`S BEEN A FAIRLY DECENT
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING IN FROM
THE WEST. ACTUAL AFTERNOON HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM
35-42 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF
MORE LIKE 48-51 IN THE SNOW-FREE...MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA OF THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A VERY POSITIVELY-TILTED AREA
AREA OF RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT LURKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/ND REGION IS A "CLUSTER" (IF YOU
WILL) OF VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN OUR WIND
SITUATION COMING UP. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH AND A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOW IS
PROMOTING SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-15
(HIGHER GUSTS) IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW HIGHER EXCEPTIONS.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED PRECIP-FREE
WEATHER...ALONG WITH STAYING GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE FIRST/LEADING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY CHARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/WI...THUS KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...OUR AREA WILL FEEL A
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING...FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT DURING
THE NIGHT. EFFECTIVELY...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY FEATURE A
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
AT THE SURFACE...AM NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET VERY
STRONG...GENERALLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/BELOW 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THEY COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THIS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...AS
THERE WILL BE NOTABLY STRONG SURGE OF WINDS COMING IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 1000-3000 FT LAYER OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL RUN WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD-WISE...THE NIGHT AS A WHOLE SHOULD
AVERAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY...AS VARIOUS
BATCHES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERHEAD. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
AIMED INTO THE 24-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...THERE COULD
EASILY BE SOME RISING TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT TOO IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS KICK UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NEXT STRONG CLIPPER WAVE
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS
NEB/KS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...NOT ONLY WILL THE CWA LIE
WITHIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROCKIES HIGH AND A
DEEP/ROUGHLY 996 MILLIBAR LOW/ TRACKING THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA...BUT THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING LIKELY UP TO AROUND 800MB OR
SO...WITH MODELS INDICATING NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE 850MB LEVEL
AVERAGING AT LEAST 45-55 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ASSUREDLY PROMOTE
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS: JUST HOW STRONG WILL THEY GET? WITHOUT
EXTENSIVE REMAINING SNOW COVER...WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT (ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST/NORTH
CWA)...BUT VARIOUS MODELS SEEM TO BE TAKING THE SNOW COVER INTO
ACCOUNT AND KEEPING FULL BLOWN MIXING TO THE SURFACE FROM TAKING
PLACE. EVEN SO...NUDGED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM
AROUND 35 MPH/GUSTS 45-55 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND MORE SO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. AGAIN...THIS IS NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN MOST TRADITIONAL
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS SUGGEST...AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW
THAN ANYTHING. AS ALREADY DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR A
POSSIBLE "NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING" SITUATION...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT
IT TO FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT. IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...FORTUNATELY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FALLING SNOW WITH
THESE VERY STRONG WINDS...AS MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESIDE WITHIN IA/MN/FAR NORTHEAST NEB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF AN EXTENSIVE
BATCH OF LOW-MID CLOUDS INVADING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY
WITHIN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA DURING AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. AS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE OPENER...AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT BIG-TIME BLOWING SNOW ISSUE AFTER A FEW DAYS OF
DAYTIME MELTING...BUT AT LEAST WANTED TO HINT AT LOCALIZED/LIMITED
POTENTIAL WITH A "PATCHY BLOWING SNOW" MENTION. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS
ARE TRICKY AS DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...DEEP-
MIXING/STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT...WITH THE
EVER-PRESENT SNOW COVER OF COURSE A MITIGATING FACTOR AS WELL. IF
ANYTHING...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST
MOST PLACES...AIMING MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
KS ZONES MAINLY INTO THE 38-43 RANGE...EXCEPT 45-ISH IN SOUTHEAST
MITCHELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CRAZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GOING STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN A DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM (998MB) IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM (1038MB) OVER THE ROCKIES. ALOFT...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH FLOW BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
MONDAY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP MIXING WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER (850MB OR JUST ABOVE)
AVERAGING 50 TO 60KTS. THE STRONG WINDS AT H85 ARE NEARLY 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL
MIX AS DEEP AS MODELS SHOW WITH THE SNOW ON THE GROUND HOWEVER DO
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. LOOK FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON MONDAY MORE SO IN THE
EVENING TIME FRAME AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTERN LOW
MIGRATING FARTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN CWA IN INCREASING
LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH COLD FROPA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
NAM INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 25 TO 50 J/KG AND WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EAST BUFFERED WITH FLURRIES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER OR
NOT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS EITHER LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST AND
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT PCPN IN
WAA OVER THE LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE VS SNOW/FLURRIES DUE TO DENDRITIC MOISTURE LACKING.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ATTM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
JUST THE NAM SUGGESTING PCPN POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH SILENT POPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST IS ON THE
STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH WARMER SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN
RIDGE. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS HEADING TOWARD AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. WIND PICKS UP BEHIND COLD FRONT AND COULD BLOW
SOME SNOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 070600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY (IF NOT THE ENTIRE) CWA WILL GET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHOUT SEEING ANY SNOW...THINGS DEFINITELY
REMAIN ON TRACK TO TAKE AN UNPLEASANT TURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WIND SPEEDS CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...WITH MUCH
OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS OF 45+ MPH...AND MAYBE EVEN
AROUND 55 MPH IN NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS MANY READING THIS PRODUCT HAVE KNOWN FOR WELL OVER 1 YEAR
KNOW...NWS HASTINGS (AND OTHER NEIGHBORING WEST/SOUTHWEST OFFICES)
NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED 30+ MPH/GUST 45+ MPH
EVENTS DUE TO THEM BEING FAIRLY COMMON CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUT
BACK IN THE ADVISORY DAYS THIS WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A "SLAM
DUNK" FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT BREACHING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 40+/GUST 58+ MPH...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
A CLOSE CALL ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW EFFICIENT MIXING PROVES TO
BE. ALSO AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL
BLOWING SNOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT PHYSICAL STATE AFTER VARIOUS
MELT/RE-FREEZE CYCLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SUPPOSE SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
EVERYTHING ALREADY MENTIONED...A FAIRLY TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
CONTINUES THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A BATTLE BETWEEN VARIOUS
FACTORS INCLUDING SNOW COVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING
ETC.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 21Z/3PM...OTHER THAN SOME
AREAS FALLING A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FROM
WHAT WAS FORECASTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALSO BECOMING A BIT
BREEZIER/GUSTIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT`S BEEN A FAIRLY DECENT
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING IN FROM
THE WEST. ACTUAL AFTERNOON HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM
35-42 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF
MORE LIKE 48-51 IN THE SNOW-FREE...MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA OF THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A VERY POSITIVELY-TILTED AREA
AREA OF RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT LURKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/ND REGION IS A "CLUSTER" (IF YOU
WILL) OF VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN OUR WIND
SITUATION COMING UP. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH AND A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOW IS
PROMOTING SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-15
(HIGHER GUSTS) IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW HIGHER EXCEPTIONS.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED PRECIP-FREE
WEATHER...ALONG WITH STAYING GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE FIRST/LEADING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY CHARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/WI...THUS KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...OUR AREA WILL FEEL A
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING...FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT DURING
THE NIGHT. EFFECTIVELY...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY FEATURE A
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
AT THE SURFACE...AM NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET VERY
STRONG...GENERALLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/BELOW 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THEY COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THIS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...AS
THERE WILL BE NOTABLY STRONG SURGE OF WINDS COMING IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 1000-3000 FT LAYER OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL RUN WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD-WISE...THE NIGHT AS A WHOLE SHOULD
AVERAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY...AS VARIOUS
BATCHES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERHEAD. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
AIMED INTO THE 24-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...THERE COULD
EASILY BE SOME RISING TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT TOO IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS KICK UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NEXT STRONG CLIPPER WAVE
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS
NEB/KS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...NOT ONLY WILL THE CWA LIE
WITHIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROCKIES HIGH AND A
DEEP/ROUGHLY 996 MILLIBAR LOW/ TRACKING THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA...BUT THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING LIKELY UP TO AROUND 800MB OR
SO...WITH MODELS INDICATING NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE 850MB LEVEL
AVERAGING AT LEAST 45-55 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ASSUREDLY PROMOTE
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS: JUST HOW STRONG WILL THEY GET? WITHOUT
EXTENSIVE REMAINING SNOW COVER...WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT (ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST/NORTH
CWA)...BUT VARIOUS MODELS SEEM TO BE TAKING THE SNOW COVER INTO
ACCOUNT AND KEEPING FULL BLOWN MIXING TO THE SURFACE FROM TAKING
PLACE. EVEN SO...NUDGED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM
AROUND 35 MPH/GUSTS 45-55 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND MORE SO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. AGAIN...THIS IS NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN MOST TRADITIONAL
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS SUGGEST...AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW
THAN ANYTHING. AS ALREADY DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR A
POSSIBLE "NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING" SITUATION...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT
IT TO FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT. IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...FORTUNATELY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FALLING SNOW WITH
THESE VERY STRONG WINDS...AS MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESIDE WITHIN IA/MN/FAR NORTHEAST NEB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF AN EXTENSIVE
BATCH OF LOW-MID CLOUDS INVADING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY
WITHIN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA DURING AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. AS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE OPENER...AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT BIG-TIME BLOWING SNOW ISSUE AFTER A FEW DAYS OF
DAYTIME MELTING...BUT AT LEAST WANTED TO HINT AT LOCALIZED/LIMITED
POTENTIAL WITH A "PATCHY BLOWING SNOW" MENTION. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS
ARE TRICKY AS DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...DEEP-
MIXING/STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT...WITH THE
EVER-PRESENT SNOW COVER OF COURSE A MITIGATING FACTOR AS WELL. IF
ANYTHING...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST
MOST PLACES...AIMING MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
KS ZONES MAINLY INTO THE 38-43 RANGE...EXCEPT 45-ISH IN SOUTHEAST
MITCHELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CRAZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GOING STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN A DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM (998MB) IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM (1038MB) OVER THE ROCKIES. ALOFT...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH FLOW BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
MONDAY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP MIXING WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER (850MB OR JUST ABOVE)
AVERAGING 50 TO 60KTS. THE STRONG WINDS AT H85 ARE NEARLY 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL
MIX AS DEEP AS MODELS SHOW WITH THE SNOW ON THE GROUND HOWEVER DO
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. LOOK FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON MONDAY MORE SO IN THE
EVENING TIME FRAME AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTERN LOW
MIGRATING FARTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN CWA IN INCREASING
LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH COLD FROPA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
NAM INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 25 TO 50 J/KG AND WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EAST BUFFERED WITH FLURRIES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER OR
NOT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS EITHER LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST AND
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT PCPN IN
WAA OVER THE LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE VS SNOW/FLURRIES DUE TO DENDRITIC MOISTURE LACKING.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ATTM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
JUST THE NAM SUGGESTING PCPN POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH SILENT POPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST IS ON THE
STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH WARMER SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN
RIDGE. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS HEADING TOWARD AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. WIND PICKS UP BEHIND COLD FRONT AND COULD BLOW
SOME SNOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 070600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY (IF NOT THE ENTIRE) CWA WILL GET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHOUT SEEING ANY SNOW...THINGS DEFINITELY
REMAIN ON TRACK TO TAKE AN UNPLEASANT TURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WIND SPEEDS CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...WITH MUCH
OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS OF 45+ MPH...AND MAYBE EVEN
AROUND 55 MPH IN NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS MANY READING THIS PRODUCT HAVE KNOWN FOR WELL OVER 1 YEAR
KNOW...NWS HASTINGS (AND OTHER NEIGHBORING WEST/SOUTHWEST OFFICES)
NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED 30+ MPH/GUST 45+ MPH
EVENTS DUE TO THEM BEING FAIRLY COMMON CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUT
BACK IN THE ADVISORY DAYS THIS WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A "SLAM
DUNK" FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT BREACHING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 40+/GUST 58+ MPH...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
A CLOSE CALL ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW EFFICIENT MIXING PROVES TO
BE. ALSO AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL
BLOWING SNOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT PHYSICAL STATE AFTER VARIOUS
MELT/RE-FREEZE CYCLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SUPPOSE SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
EVERYTHING ALREADY MENTIONED...A FAIRLY TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
CONTINUES THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A BATTLE BETWEEN VARIOUS
FACTORS INCLUDING SNOW COVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING
ETC.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 21Z/3PM...OTHER THAN SOME
AREAS FALLING A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FROM
WHAT WAS FORECASTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALSO BECOMING A BIT
BREEZIER/GUSTIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT`S BEEN A FAIRLY DECENT
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING IN FROM
THE WEST. ACTUAL AFTERNOON HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM
35-42 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF
MORE LIKE 48-51 IN THE SNOW-FREE...MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA OF THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A VERY POSITIVELY-TILTED AREA
AREA OF RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT LURKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/ND REGION IS A "CLUSTER" (IF YOU
WILL) OF VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN OUR WIND
SITUATION COMING UP. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH AND A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOW IS
PROMOTING SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-15
(HIGHER GUSTS) IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW HIGHER EXCEPTIONS.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED PRECIP-FREE
WEATHER...ALONG WITH STAYING GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE FIRST/LEADING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY CHARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/WI...THUS KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...OUR AREA WILL FEEL A
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING...FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT DURING
THE NIGHT. EFFECTIVELY...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY FEATURE A
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
AT THE SURFACE...AM NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET VERY
STRONG...GENERALLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/BELOW 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THEY COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THIS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...AS
THERE WILL BE NOTABLY STRONG SURGE OF WINDS COMING IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 1000-3000 FT LAYER OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL RUN WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD-WISE...THE NIGHT AS A WHOLE SHOULD
AVERAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY...AS VARIOUS
BATCHES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERHEAD. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
AIMED INTO THE 24-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...THERE COULD
EASILY BE SOME RISING TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT TOO IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS KICK UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NEXT STRONG CLIPPER WAVE
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS
NEB/KS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...NOT ONLY WILL THE CWA LIE
WITHIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROCKIES HIGH AND A
DEEP/ROUGHLY 996 MILLIBAR LOW/ TRACKING THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA...BUT THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING LIKELY UP TO AROUND 800MB OR
SO...WITH MODELS INDICATING NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE 850MB LEVEL
AVERAGING AT LEAST 45-55 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ASSUREDLY PROMOTE
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS: JUST HOW STRONG WILL THEY GET? WITHOUT
EXTENSIVE REMAINING SNOW COVER...WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT (ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST/NORTH
CWA)...BUT VARIOUS MODELS SEEM TO BE TAKING THE SNOW COVER INTO
ACCOUNT AND KEEPING FULL BLOWN MIXING TO THE SURFACE FROM TAKING
PLACE. EVEN SO...NUDGED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM
AROUND 35 MPH/GUSTS 45-55 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND MORE SO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. AGAIN...THIS IS NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN MOST TRADITIONAL
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS SUGGEST...AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW
THAN ANYTHING. AS ALREADY DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR A
POSSIBLE "NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING" SITUATION...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT
IT TO FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT. IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...FORTUNATELY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FALLING SNOW WITH
THESE VERY STRONG WINDS...AS MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESIDE WITHIN IA/MN/FAR NORTHEAST NEB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF AN EXTENSIVE
BATCH OF LOW-MID CLOUDS INVADING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY
WITHIN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA DURING AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. AS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE OPENER...AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT BIG-TIME BLOWING SNOW ISSUE AFTER A FEW DAYS OF
DAYTIME MELTING...BUT AT LEAST WANTED TO HINT AT LOCALIZED/LIMITED
POTENTIAL WITH A "PATCHY BLOWING SNOW" MENTION. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS
ARE TRICKY AS DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...DEEP-
MIXING/STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT...WITH THE
EVER-PRESENT SNOW COVER OF COURSE A MITIGATING FACTOR AS WELL. IF
ANYTHING...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST
MOST PLACES...AIMING MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
KS ZONES MAINLY INTO THE 38-43 RANGE...EXCEPT 45-ISH IN SOUTHEAST
MITCHELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CRAZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GOING STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN A DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM (998MB) IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM (1038MB) OVER THE ROCKIES. ALOFT...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH FLOW BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
MONDAY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP MIXING WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER (850MB OR JUST ABOVE)
AVERAGING 50 TO 60KTS. THE STRONG WINDS AT H85 ARE NEARLY 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL
MIX AS DEEP AS MODELS SHOW WITH THE SNOW ON THE GROUND HOWEVER DO
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. LOOK FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON MONDAY MORE SO IN THE
EVENING TIME FRAME AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTERN LOW
MIGRATING FARTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN CWA IN INCREASING
LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH COLD FROPA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
NAM INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 25 TO 50 J/KG AND WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EAST BUFFERED WITH FLURRIES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER OR
NOT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS EITHER LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST AND
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT PCPN IN
WAA OVER THE LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE VS SNOW/FLURRIES DUE TO DENDRITIC MOISTURE LACKING.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ATTM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
JUST THE NAM SUGGESTING PCPN POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH SILENT POPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST IS ON THE
STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH WARMER SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN
RIDGE. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS HEADING TOWARD AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. WIND PICKS UP BEHIND COLD FRONT AND COULD BLOW
SOME SNOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 070600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY (IF NOT THE ENTIRE) CWA WILL GET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHOUT SEEING ANY SNOW...THINGS DEFINITELY
REMAIN ON TRACK TO TAKE AN UNPLEASANT TURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WIND SPEEDS CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...WITH MUCH
OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS OF 45+ MPH...AND MAYBE EVEN
AROUND 55 MPH IN NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS MANY READING THIS PRODUCT HAVE KNOWN FOR WELL OVER 1 YEAR
KNOW...NWS HASTINGS (AND OTHER NEIGHBORING WEST/SOUTHWEST OFFICES)
NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED 30+ MPH/GUST 45+ MPH
EVENTS DUE TO THEM BEING FAIRLY COMMON CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUT
BACK IN THE ADVISORY DAYS THIS WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A "SLAM
DUNK" FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT BREACHING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 40+/GUST 58+ MPH...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
A CLOSE CALL ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW EFFICIENT MIXING PROVES TO
BE. ALSO AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL
BLOWING SNOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT PHYSICAL STATE AFTER VARIOUS
MELT/RE-FREEZE CYCLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SUPPOSE SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
EVERYTHING ALREADY MENTIONED...A FAIRLY TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
CONTINUES THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A BATTLE BETWEEN VARIOUS
FACTORS INCLUDING SNOW COVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING
ETC.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 21Z/3PM...OTHER THAN SOME
AREAS FALLING A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FROM
WHAT WAS FORECASTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALSO BECOMING A BIT
BREEZIER/GUSTIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT`S BEEN A FAIRLY DECENT
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING IN FROM
THE WEST. ACTUAL AFTERNOON HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM
35-42 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF
MORE LIKE 48-51 IN THE SNOW-FREE...MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA OF THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A VERY POSITIVELY-TILTED AREA
AREA OF RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT LURKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/ND REGION IS A "CLUSTER" (IF YOU
WILL) OF VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN OUR WIND
SITUATION COMING UP. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH AND A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOW IS
PROMOTING SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-15
(HIGHER GUSTS) IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW HIGHER EXCEPTIONS.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED PRECIP-FREE
WEATHER...ALONG WITH STAYING GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE FIRST/LEADING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY CHARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/WI...THUS KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...OUR AREA WILL FEEL A
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING...FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT DURING
THE NIGHT. EFFECTIVELY...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY FEATURE A
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
AT THE SURFACE...AM NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET VERY
STRONG...GENERALLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/BELOW 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THEY COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THIS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...AS
THERE WILL BE NOTABLY STRONG SURGE OF WINDS COMING IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 1000-3000 FT LAYER OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL RUN WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD-WISE...THE NIGHT AS A WHOLE SHOULD
AVERAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY...AS VARIOUS
BATCHES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERHEAD. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
AIMED INTO THE 24-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...THERE COULD
EASILY BE SOME RISING TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT TOO IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS KICK UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NEXT STRONG CLIPPER WAVE
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS
NEB/KS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...NOT ONLY WILL THE CWA LIE
WITHIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROCKIES HIGH AND A
DEEP/ROUGHLY 996 MILLIBAR LOW/ TRACKING THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA...BUT THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING LIKELY UP TO AROUND 800MB OR
SO...WITH MODELS INDICATING NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE 850MB LEVEL
AVERAGING AT LEAST 45-55 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ASSUREDLY PROMOTE
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS: JUST HOW STRONG WILL THEY GET? WITHOUT
EXTENSIVE REMAINING SNOW COVER...WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT (ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST/NORTH
CWA)...BUT VARIOUS MODELS SEEM TO BE TAKING THE SNOW COVER INTO
ACCOUNT AND KEEPING FULL BLOWN MIXING TO THE SURFACE FROM TAKING
PLACE. EVEN SO...NUDGED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM
AROUND 35 MPH/GUSTS 45-55 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND MORE SO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. AGAIN...THIS IS NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN MOST TRADITIONAL
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS SUGGEST...AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW
THAN ANYTHING. AS ALREADY DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR A
POSSIBLE "NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING" SITUATION...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT
IT TO FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT. IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...FORTUNATELY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FALLING SNOW WITH
THESE VERY STRONG WINDS...AS MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESIDE WITHIN IA/MN/FAR NORTHEAST NEB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF AN EXTENSIVE
BATCH OF LOW-MID CLOUDS INVADING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY
WITHIN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA DURING AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. AS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE OPENER...AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT BIG-TIME BLOWING SNOW ISSUE AFTER A FEW DAYS OF
DAYTIME MELTING...BUT AT LEAST WANTED TO HINT AT LOCALIZED/LIMITED
POTENTIAL WITH A "PATCHY BLOWING SNOW" MENTION. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS
ARE TRICKY AS DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...DEEP-
MIXING/STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT...WITH THE
EVER-PRESENT SNOW COVER OF COURSE A MITIGATING FACTOR AS WELL. IF
ANYTHING...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST
MOST PLACES...AIMING MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
KS ZONES MAINLY INTO THE 38-43 RANGE...EXCEPT 45-ISH IN SOUTHEAST
MITCHELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CRAZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GOING STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN A DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM (998MB) IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM (1038MB) OVER THE ROCKIES. ALOFT...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH FLOW BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
MONDAY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP MIXING WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER (850MB OR JUST ABOVE)
AVERAGING 50 TO 60KTS. THE STRONG WINDS AT H85 ARE NEARLY 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL
MIX AS DEEP AS MODELS SHOW WITH THE SNOW ON THE GROUND HOWEVER DO
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. LOOK FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON MONDAY MORE SO IN THE
EVENING TIME FRAME AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTERN LOW
MIGRATING FARTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN CWA IN INCREASING
LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH COLD FROPA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
NAM INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 25 TO 50 J/KG AND WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EAST BUFFERED WITH FLURRIES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER OR
NOT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS EITHER LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST AND
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT PCPN IN
WAA OVER THE LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE VS SNOW/FLURRIES DUE TO DENDRITIC MOISTURE LACKING.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ATTM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
JUST THE NAM SUGGESTING PCPN POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH SILENT POPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST IS ON THE
STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH WARMER SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN
RIDGE. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS HEADING TOWARD AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. WIND PICKS UP BEHIND COLD FRONT AND COULD BLOW
SOME SNOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 070600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY (IF NOT THE ENTIRE) CWA WILL GET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHOUT SEEING ANY SNOW...THINGS DEFINITELY
REMAIN ON TRACK TO TAKE AN UNPLEASANT TURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WIND SPEEDS CRANK UP CONSIDERABLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...WITH MUCH
OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS OF 45+ MPH...AND MAYBE EVEN
AROUND 55 MPH IN NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.

AS MANY READING THIS PRODUCT HAVE KNOWN FOR WELL OVER 1 YEAR
KNOW...NWS HASTINGS (AND OTHER NEIGHBORING WEST/SOUTHWEST OFFICES)
NO LONGER ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SUSTAINED 30+ MPH/GUST 45+ MPH
EVENTS DUE TO THEM BEING FAIRLY COMMON CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BUT
BACK IN THE ADVISORY DAYS THIS WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A "SLAM
DUNK" FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
ALTHOUGH AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT BREACHING HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 40+/GUST 58+ MPH...THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
A CLOSE CALL ESPECIALLY WITHIN A FEW FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW EFFICIENT MIXING PROVES TO
BE. ALSO AM NOT OVERLY-CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL
BLOWING SNOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT PHYSICAL STATE AFTER VARIOUS
MELT/RE-FREEZE CYCLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SUPPOSE SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED
THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
EVERYTHING ALREADY MENTIONED...A FAIRLY TRICKY TEMP FORECAST
CONTINUES THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A BATTLE BETWEEN VARIOUS
FACTORS INCLUDING SNOW COVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION...DEEP MIXING
ETC.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 21Z/3PM...OTHER THAN SOME
AREAS FALLING A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FROM
WHAT WAS FORECASTED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALSO BECOMING A BIT
BREEZIER/GUSTIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT`S BEEN A FAIRLY DECENT
AFTERNOON DESPITE INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING IN FROM
THE WEST. ACTUAL AFTERNOON HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM
35-42 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...BUT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF
MORE LIKE 48-51 IN THE SNOW-FREE...MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA OF THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A VERY POSITIVELY-TILTED AREA
AREA OF RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT LURKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA/ND REGION IS A "CLUSTER" (IF YOU
WILL) OF VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER JET STREAK...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN OUR WIND
SITUATION COMING UP. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH AND A SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOW IS
PROMOTING SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OF GENERALLY 10-15
(HIGHER GUSTS) IN MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW HIGHER EXCEPTIONS.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY:

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED PRECIP-FREE
WEATHER...ALONG WITH STAYING GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
LAST NIGHT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE FIRST/LEADING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL MAINLY CHARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/WI...THUS KEEPING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...OUR AREA WILL FEEL A
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING...FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT DURING
THE NIGHT. EFFECTIVELY...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ONLY FEATURE A
TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.
AT THE SURFACE...AM NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET VERY
STRONG...GENERALLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR/BELOW 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THEY COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THIS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80...AS
THERE WILL BE NOTABLY STRONG SURGE OF WINDS COMING IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE 1000-3000 FT LAYER OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WILL RUN WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THESE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD-WISE...THE NIGHT AS A WHOLE SHOULD
AVERAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY...AS VARIOUS
BATCHES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERHEAD. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE
AIMED INTO THE 24-28 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...THERE COULD
EASILY BE SOME RISING TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT TOO IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS KICK UP STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE NEXT STRONG CLIPPER WAVE
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS
NEB/KS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...NOT ONLY WILL THE CWA LIE
WITHIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROCKIES HIGH AND A
DEEP/ROUGHLY 996 MILLIBAR LOW/ TRACKING THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA...BUT THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING LIKELY UP TO AROUND 800MB OR
SO...WITH MODELS INDICATING NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE 850MB LEVEL
AVERAGING AT LEAST 45-55 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ASSUREDLY PROMOTE
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION IS: JUST HOW STRONG WILL THEY GET? WITHOUT
EXTENSIVE REMAINING SNOW COVER...WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING EVENT (ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST/NORTH
CWA)...BUT VARIOUS MODELS SEEM TO BE TAKING THE SNOW COVER INTO
ACCOUNT AND KEEPING FULL BLOWN MIXING TO THE SURFACE FROM TAKING
PLACE. EVEN SO...NUDGED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGING FROM
AROUND 35 MPH/GUSTS 45-55 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND MORE SO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. AGAIN...THIS IS NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN MOST TRADITIONAL
MODELS/GUIDANCE SETS SUGGEST...AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW
THAN ANYTHING. AS ALREADY DISCUSSED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR A
POSSIBLE "NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING" SITUATION...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT
IT TO FALL SLIGHTLY SHORT. IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...FORTUNATELY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FALLING SNOW WITH
THESE VERY STRONG WINDS...AS MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESIDE WITHIN IA/MN/FAR NORTHEAST NEB DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF AN EXTENSIVE
BATCH OF LOW-MID CLOUDS INVADING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY
WITHIN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA DURING AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE
FORECAST. AS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE OPENER...AM NOT OVERLY-
CONCERNED ABOUT BIG-TIME BLOWING SNOW ISSUE AFTER A FEW DAYS OF
DAYTIME MELTING...BUT AT LEAST WANTED TO HINT AT LOCALIZED/LIMITED
POTENTIAL WITH A "PATCHY BLOWING SNOW" MENTION. TEMP-WISE...HIGHS
ARE TRICKY AS DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...DEEP-
MIXING/STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT...WITH THE
EVER-PRESENT SNOW COVER OF COURSE A MITIGATING FACTOR AS WELL. IF
ANYTHING...NUDGED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST
MOST PLACES...AIMING MOST NEB ZONES INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
KS ZONES MAINLY INTO THE 38-43 RANGE...EXCEPT 45-ISH IN SOUTHEAST
MITCHELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CRAZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GOING STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN A DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM (998MB) IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM (1038MB) OVER THE ROCKIES. ALOFT...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH FLOW BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY
MONDAY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEP MIXING WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER (850MB OR JUST ABOVE)
AVERAGING 50 TO 60KTS. THE STRONG WINDS AT H85 ARE NEARLY 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL
MIX AS DEEP AS MODELS SHOW WITH THE SNOW ON THE GROUND HOWEVER DO
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM TO THE EAST. LOOK FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON MONDAY MORE SO IN THE
EVENING TIME FRAME AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE EASTERN LOW
MIGRATING FARTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN CWA IN INCREASING
LIFT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH COLD FROPA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
NAM INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 25 TO 50 J/KG AND WILL GO WITH A COMBINATION
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR EAST BUFFERED WITH FLURRIES.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS RISE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHETHER OR
NOT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS EITHER LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST AND
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT PCPN IN
WAA OVER THE LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE VS SNOW/FLURRIES DUE TO DENDRITIC MOISTURE LACKING.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ATTM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
JUST THE NAM SUGGESTING PCPN POTENTIAL. WILL GO WITH SILENT POPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST IS ON THE
STRONG WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH WARMER SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN
RIDGE. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS HEADING TOWARD AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND DID NOT DEVIATE FROM INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. WIND PICKS UP BEHIND COLD FRONT AND COULD BLOW
SOME SNOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 070528
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WE ARE STILL MAINLY CONCERNED WITH STRONG WINDS AND AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

SEVERAL JET SEGMENTS OF OVER 100 KNOTS WERE NOTED ON THE 12Z 300 MB
CHART...BUT THE MAIN ONE OF CONCERN WAS PUNCHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
THAT HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS (ESTIMATED) AT UP TO 200 METERS THIS
MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA. RIDGING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. VARIABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE SPILLING DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 3 PM SHOWED WINDS MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LOCALLY...WHICH WITH SUNSHINE HAD HELPED BOOST TEMPS.
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WERE OCCURRING WHERE THE THICKER SNOWPACK
WAS IN PLACE. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...FALLS CITY HAD REACHED THE
UPPER 40S.

TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THAT WOULD TEND TO INHIBIT MUCH
FOG FORMATION. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT
CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
FROM FOG OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD...MOSTLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

SUNDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND WE GET DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY STARTING AT NOON SUNDAY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE SOME BLOWING
SNOW...BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH THERE WILL BE PRIOR TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS THAT SHOULD MOVE IN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS
UNCERTAIN. WARMING TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE PCPN MAY BE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...AT LEAST INITIALLY.
ONCE THE SNOW SHOWERS START...THERE THEN MAY BE ENOUGH WHERE WE
MAY NEED TO SWITCH THE HEADLINE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WE
DECIDED THERE WAS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO WAIT UNTIL LATER FOR A
WINTER PRODUCT HEADLINE.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW DECENT
LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. PCPN TYPE COULD INITIALLY BE
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT THAT SHOULD WET BULB/COOL AND TURN TO
LIGHT SNOW FAIRLY FAST. SOUNDINGS EVEN SHOW JUST A BIT OF CAPE. THE
WINDY PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...
THEN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE. BY 00Z TUESDAY...
THE AXIS OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO
SPREAD EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF PCPN
FOR TUESDAY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL MONITOR THAT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE KEPT THIS PERIOD GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT SOME LIGHT PCPN
DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500 MB PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
ARIZONA UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE SHOULD BE A TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE PATTERN ALOFT
SHOULD SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WARMING DOES NOT SEEM
GUARANTEED HERE LOCALLY. THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST AND THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN PARTS THE WARMEST.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD IN BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WEAKEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST BY 15Z...AND BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35KT ARE EXPECTED AT KOFK
FROM 21Z ON. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST NEAR KOFK
AND KOMA AFTER 00Z...WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE TAF RIGHT
NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044-050.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 070505
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1105 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR TONIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL TURN THE
WESTERLY WINDS SEEN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
BEFORE THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THESE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS WELL
MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TWO AREAS OF FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION: 1)THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW...AND 2)WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS.

FIRST TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN FOR BLOWING SNOW ON SUNDAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A SUFFICIENT SURFACE CRUST HAS BEEN BUILT UPON THE
SNOW PACK THAT RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. WITH THIS BEING SAID...DO BELIEVE THAT
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN SHELTERED FROM
DIRECT SUNLIGHT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS (IE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
SHADED BY TREES AND/OR BUILDINGS). IN ADDITION TO THOSE AREAS OF
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW WITHIN OUR REGION...AM CONCERNED WITH HOW
MUCH SNOW IS BLOWN IN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA FROM THE STATE OF
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL ABOVE FREEZING TODAY
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THE STATE OF THE SURFACE CRUST OF SNOW
IS STILL IN QUESTION. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THIS
REGION...SO ANY LOOSE SNOW WILL EASILY BE BLOWN INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.

THE SECOND CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. GIVEN PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8+ DEGREES PER KM UP TO
850MB DURING THE 18Z-00Z HOURS...AND MECHANICAL MIXING FROM THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...BELIEVE THAT SUFFICIENT MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS
BELIEF IS SUPPORTED BY THIS MORNINGS 12Z BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WHICH
SHOWS MIXING TO AT LEAST 850MB ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGH WIND CRITERIA APPEAR TO BE
CONFINED TO SHERIDAN...CHERRY...KEYA PAHA...BROWN...HOLT...BOYD AND
ROCK COUNTIES.  WILL UPGRADE THESE COUNTIES TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE OTHER COUNTIES THAT ARE CURRENTLY
COVERED IN A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS IS AS THERE REMAINS
SOME DOUBT THAT THESE COUNTIES WILL REACH HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. WFO LBF NO LONGER ISSUES WIND ADVISORIES...SO THE EVENING
SHIFT WILL DECIDE TO UPGRADE THOSE COUNTIES TO A WARNING...OR COVER
THEM WITH A SPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS IN THE 12Z GFS40
INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NAMELY BOYD AND HOLT COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z RUN... NEITHER
THE NAM12 NOR THE CANADIAN NH INDICATE ANY. LOOKING AT THE UPWARD
MOTION IN THE 285-295K LAYER...SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION IS INDICATED.
THIS GETS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE LOCAL PRESSURE DERIVATIVE ON THE
285K AND 290K SURFACES. SINCE THE LIFT IS WEAK AND OVER A VERY
LIMITED AREA AND TIME SEGMENT...WE WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY BELOW 20 PERCENT. CLOUDINESS AND SNOW COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT THE SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE ERODING FROM THE OUTER EDGES.

DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF EROSION OF THE SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE CAPPED INTO TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN BEYOND THAT. WITH
AFTERNOON WIND AT OR ABOVE 10KT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WARMER
UPPER TEMPERATURES WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. IN THAT CASE THEN...IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF LINE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S...EVEN WITH SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BECOME AN AVIATION
CONCERN AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30027G35KT BY 15Z
AND PEAK NEAR 30034G43KT AFTER 18Z AT KVTN. IN ADDITION...SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. WINDS AT KLBF SIMILAR PEAKING NEAR 30028G39KT AFTER
18Z. WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 8 PM CST /7 PM
MST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004>010-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS/MOLDAN
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 070505
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1105 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR TONIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL TURN THE
WESTERLY WINDS SEEN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
BEFORE THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THESE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS WELL
MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TWO AREAS OF FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION: 1)THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW...AND 2)WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS.

FIRST TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN FOR BLOWING SNOW ON SUNDAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A SUFFICIENT SURFACE CRUST HAS BEEN BUILT UPON THE
SNOW PACK THAT RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. WITH THIS BEING SAID...DO BELIEVE THAT
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN SHELTERED FROM
DIRECT SUNLIGHT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS (IE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
SHADED BY TREES AND/OR BUILDINGS). IN ADDITION TO THOSE AREAS OF
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW WITHIN OUR REGION...AM CONCERNED WITH HOW
MUCH SNOW IS BLOWN IN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA FROM THE STATE OF
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL ABOVE FREEZING TODAY
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THE STATE OF THE SURFACE CRUST OF SNOW
IS STILL IN QUESTION. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THIS
REGION...SO ANY LOOSE SNOW WILL EASILY BE BLOWN INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.

THE SECOND CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. GIVEN PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8+ DEGREES PER KM UP TO
850MB DURING THE 18Z-00Z HOURS...AND MECHANICAL MIXING FROM THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...BELIEVE THAT SUFFICIENT MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS
BELIEF IS SUPPORTED BY THIS MORNINGS 12Z BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WHICH
SHOWS MIXING TO AT LEAST 850MB ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGH WIND CRITERIA APPEAR TO BE
CONFINED TO SHERIDAN...CHERRY...KEYA PAHA...BROWN...HOLT...BOYD AND
ROCK COUNTIES.  WILL UPGRADE THESE COUNTIES TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE OTHER COUNTIES THAT ARE CURRENTLY
COVERED IN A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS IS AS THERE REMAINS
SOME DOUBT THAT THESE COUNTIES WILL REACH HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. WFO LBF NO LONGER ISSUES WIND ADVISORIES...SO THE EVENING
SHIFT WILL DECIDE TO UPGRADE THOSE COUNTIES TO A WARNING...OR COVER
THEM WITH A SPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS IN THE 12Z GFS40
INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NAMELY BOYD AND HOLT COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z RUN... NEITHER
THE NAM12 NOR THE CANADIAN NH INDICATE ANY. LOOKING AT THE UPWARD
MOTION IN THE 285-295K LAYER...SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION IS INDICATED.
THIS GETS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE LOCAL PRESSURE DERIVATIVE ON THE
285K AND 290K SURFACES. SINCE THE LIFT IS WEAK AND OVER A VERY
LIMITED AREA AND TIME SEGMENT...WE WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY BELOW 20 PERCENT. CLOUDINESS AND SNOW COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT THE SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE ERODING FROM THE OUTER EDGES.

DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF EROSION OF THE SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE CAPPED INTO TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN BEYOND THAT. WITH
AFTERNOON WIND AT OR ABOVE 10KT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WARMER
UPPER TEMPERATURES WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. IN THAT CASE THEN...IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF LINE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S...EVEN WITH SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BECOME AN AVIATION
CONCERN AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30027G35KT BY 15Z
AND PEAK NEAR 30034G43KT AFTER 18Z AT KVTN. IN ADDITION...SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. WINDS AT KLBF SIMILAR PEAKING NEAR 30028G39KT AFTER
18Z. WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 8 PM CST /7 PM
MST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004>010-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS/MOLDAN
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG



000
FXUS63 KLBF 070505
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1105 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR TONIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL TURN THE
WESTERLY WINDS SEEN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
BEFORE THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THESE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS WELL
MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO TWO AREAS OF FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION: 1)THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW...AND 2)WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS.

FIRST TO ADDRESS THE CONCERN FOR BLOWING SNOW ON SUNDAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A SUFFICIENT SURFACE CRUST HAS BEEN BUILT UPON THE
SNOW PACK THAT RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW. WITH THIS BEING SAID...DO BELIEVE THAT
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN SHELTERED FROM
DIRECT SUNLIGHT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS (IE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
SHADED BY TREES AND/OR BUILDINGS). IN ADDITION TO THOSE AREAS OF
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW WITHIN OUR REGION...AM CONCERNED WITH HOW
MUCH SNOW IS BLOWN IN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA FROM THE STATE OF
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WARMED WELL ABOVE FREEZING TODAY
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THE STATE OF THE SURFACE CRUST OF SNOW
IS STILL IN QUESTION. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS THIS
REGION...SO ANY LOOSE SNOW WILL EASILY BE BLOWN INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.

THE SECOND CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. GIVEN PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8+ DEGREES PER KM UP TO
850MB DURING THE 18Z-00Z HOURS...AND MECHANICAL MIXING FROM THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...BELIEVE THAT SUFFICIENT MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS
BELIEF IS SUPPORTED BY THIS MORNINGS 12Z BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WHICH
SHOWS MIXING TO AT LEAST 850MB ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGH WIND CRITERIA APPEAR TO BE
CONFINED TO SHERIDAN...CHERRY...KEYA PAHA...BROWN...HOLT...BOYD AND
ROCK COUNTIES.  WILL UPGRADE THESE COUNTIES TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE OTHER COUNTIES THAT ARE CURRENTLY
COVERED IN A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS IS AS THERE REMAINS
SOME DOUBT THAT THESE COUNTIES WILL REACH HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. WFO LBF NO LONGER ISSUES WIND ADVISORIES...SO THE EVENING
SHIFT WILL DECIDE TO UPGRADE THOSE COUNTIES TO A WARNING...OR COVER
THEM WITH A SPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS IN THE 12Z GFS40
INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NAMELY BOYD AND HOLT COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z RUN... NEITHER
THE NAM12 NOR THE CANADIAN NH INDICATE ANY. LOOKING AT THE UPWARD
MOTION IN THE 285-295K LAYER...SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION IS INDICATED.
THIS GETS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE LOCAL PRESSURE DERIVATIVE ON THE
285K AND 290K SURFACES. SINCE THE LIFT IS WEAK AND OVER A VERY
LIMITED AREA AND TIME SEGMENT...WE WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY BELOW 20 PERCENT. CLOUDINESS AND SNOW COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT THE SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE ERODING FROM THE OUTER EDGES.

DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF EROSION OF THE SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE CAPPED INTO TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN BEYOND THAT. WITH
AFTERNOON WIND AT OR ABOVE 10KT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WARMER
UPPER TEMPERATURES WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. IN THAT CASE THEN...IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF LINE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S...EVEN WITH SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...WINDS WILL BECOME AN AVIATION
CONCERN AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30027G35KT BY 15Z
AND PEAK NEAR 30034G43KT AFTER 18Z AT KVTN. IN ADDITION...SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. WINDS AT KLBF SIMILAR PEAKING NEAR 30028G39KT AFTER
18Z. WINDS AT BOTH SITES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 8 PM CST /7 PM
MST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ004>010-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS/MOLDAN
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG




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