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000
FXUS63 KOAX 291105
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
605 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. REGION COMES
UNDER MORE DOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY WITH ALL THREE MODELS
TRYING TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT POP AT THIS TIME AS MODELS LACK CONSISTENCY
IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

REGION REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PERIODIC CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO IN THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291105
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
605 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. REGION COMES
UNDER MORE DOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY WITH ALL THREE MODELS
TRYING TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT POP AT THIS TIME AS MODELS LACK CONSISTENCY
IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

REGION REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PERIODIC CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO IN THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291105
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
605 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. REGION COMES
UNDER MORE DOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY WITH ALL THREE MODELS
TRYING TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT POP AT THIS TIME AS MODELS LACK CONSISTENCY
IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

REGION REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PERIODIC CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO IN THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291105
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
605 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. REGION COMES
UNDER MORE DOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY WITH ALL THREE MODELS
TRYING TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT POP AT THIS TIME AS MODELS LACK CONSISTENCY
IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

REGION REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PERIODIC CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO IN THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



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000
FXUS63 KLBF 291057
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
557 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED THAT THE FRONT HAD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS MISSOURI...KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND
COLORADO. THERE WAS ALSO A BOUNDARY INDICATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
FROM A CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE HIGH
PLAINS WHEN THE WEAK FRONT PRESSES NORTH FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING
AND STALLS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOISTURE
BEGINS RETURNING TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND TO THE
SANDHILLS. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FRONT CONTINUES OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE NEWS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WESTERN RIDGE DOES AMPLIFLY ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
A SLIGHT PUSH UP OF TEMPS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS GO FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 80S TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GUIDANCE DROPPING
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CONCERN INITIALLY WITH MOISTURE AS
PWATS ONLY NEAR 1 INCH...WHICH IS LOW FOR THE FIRST OF AUGUST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WHICH IS NOT
THAT FAR SOUTH...AND PWATS RETURN TO 1.50 INCHES OR HIGHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR POPS THURSDAY...AND WILL CONFINE TO FAR
SW ZONES WHERE MOISTURE RETURN IS BEST. FRIDAY STILL DOES NOT
LOOK GREAT BUT BETTER DYNAMICS UPSTAIRS AND WITH COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...MAY BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE CAP. BETTER CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH STILL WILL FOCUS ON MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING OF
THE WAVES. GENERALLY THE BEST TIME WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIND WILL BE LIGHT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
260-280 AT 10-14KT IN THE NORTH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER


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000
FXUS63 KGID 290900
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NEB ZONES)...THIS SHOULD
BE A PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED
EXPECTATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY PLEASANT
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A SOMEWHAT CLOUDIER DAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...THINGS GET A BIT TRICKIER SOUTHWARD
INTO KS ZONES (ESPECIALLY OUR BOTTOM-MOST 3 COUNTIES)...AS THERE
ARE SOME MODELS (FOR EXAMPLE THE GFS) SUGGESTING THAT THIS AREA
WILL BE BRUSHED BY THE FAR NORTHERN EDGES OF SOMEWHAT BETTER
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...OTHER
MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM 4KM WRF/ARW RUNS
(INCLUDING THE OFTEN-RELIABLE NSSL WRF) ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
THESE MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALBEIT A RATHER CLOSE CALL. TO MAKE A LONG STORY
SHORTER...CONSIDERED ADDING A FORMAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF OUR KS COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE MIXED MESSAGES IN THE MODEL WORLD...AND
ALSO CONSIDERING THAT WE HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A "DRY"
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST CWA-WIDE THESE PAST FEW
DAYS...OPTED TO TAKE A "MIDDLE GROUND" APPROACH FOR NOW BY SIMPLY
INSERTING A "SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES" INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE INTENDED MESSAGE HERE IS THAT ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY PRECIP CHANCES...THE SPRINKLE MENTION BETTER IMPLIES THAT
CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY "ZERO" EITHER. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS JUST IN CASE PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY NEED BEEFED UP A
BIT IN THIS TRICKY SOUTHERN AREA.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM: WE ARE ALREADY
IN THE MIDST OF A "CLOSE CALL" REGARDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...AS A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED AXIS OF
SHOWERS /NON-SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST-CENTRAL KS IS
JUST BARELY REMAINING OUTSIDE OUR CWA FOR THE MOST PART. THIS
CONVECTION IS FOCUSED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL KS...AND IS
LARGELY TIED TO AN AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS CONVECTION IS ALIGNED ALMOST PERFECTLY WITH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF A VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD-SINKING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AXIS...WHICH CLEARED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE OF
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND THE LATEST MODEL
DATA DEPICT LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND
THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR DODGE
CITY. WHILE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A LARGELY
CLEAR NIGHT THUS FAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AT LEAST A THIN VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS IS INCREASINGLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST KS CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...THINGS ARE LARGELY
PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN REACH OF
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT/MAINLY NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS...COMBINED WITH THE WELCOMED PRESENCE OF NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE-JULY NORMALS IN MOST
AREAS...AND ULTIMATELY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTHWEST...NEAR 60 CENTRAL AND MID-60S SOUTH.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH 7AM): OTHER THAN A CONTINUED GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LITTLE
CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT IT APPEARS
THAT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
BARELY MISS OUT ON THE CENTRAL-NORTHEAST KS CONVECTION...WILL BE
REMOVING THE PREVIOUSLY-EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
IN OUR FAR SOUTH FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): SEE THE OPENING PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR THE BASIC
REASONING BEHIND INTRODUCING SPRINKLE POTENTIAL INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHERN CWA IN KS. HOWEVER...BARRING AN UNEXPECTED NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS...PLAN
ON MAINTAINING A THUNDERSTORM-FREE FORECAST GOING FORWARD INTO THE
OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD. AGAIN...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA (ESSENTIALLY NEB ZONES)...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH ENOUGH IN A
DRY DAY TO PRECLUDE EVEN A SPRINKLE MENTION. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS ACTUALLY DO TRY TO DROP A FEW
SPRINKLES OUT OF AN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...BUT WILL
LARGELY IGNORE THIS FOR NOW WITH VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER
MODELS AND GIVEN THAT THIS LIMITED MOISTURE IS LARGELY AT/ABOVE
600MB. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS OVERHEAD...WITH HINTS OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST KS ONE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS OVER KS SHOULD LARGELY STALL OUT
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN A WEST-T0-EAST FASHION. ALTHOUGH DO NOT
HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...BEEFED UP SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES SOLIDLY INTO PARTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST AREAS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...AND THERE COULD EASILY BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY TOO...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE(S) PASSING
THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EASTWARD
OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...PROMOTING NOT ONLY LIGHT BREEZES THAT
WILL LARGELY AVERAGE UNDER 10 MPH...BUT ALSO A GRADUALLY VARYING
DIRECTION AS MANY PLACES SEE A TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF INCREASING CLOUDS HOLD THINGS BACK A TOUCH AND DID
DROP SOME AREAS (INCLUDING TRI-CITIES) 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT OVERALL STILL CALLING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO TOP
OUT IN THE 82-85 RANGE...WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE
LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AGAIN...SEE OPENING PARAGRAPH FOR FURTHER
INSIGHT INTO THE DECISION TO ADD SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY INTO PARTS
OF KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH MODEL DISCREPANCY CONTINUES REGARDING
NORTHERN KS PRECIP POTENTIAL...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE VERY
LATEST 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOW KEEPING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA (MUCH THE SAME PLACEMENT AS THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT...FLOW OVER THE CWA
STARTS TO TURN EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY...IN RESPONSE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE STARTING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT.
WHILE FAIRLY SUBTLE LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE "SOME" COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN VOID OF
EVEN SPRINKLES...WITH A LIKELY DECREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AS WELL FROM THE DAYTIME...THUS PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE IN THE PRESENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...BUT LIKELY
TAKING ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY AND/OR WESTERLY COMPONENT. ALL IN
ALL...LOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MAY END UP BEING VERY
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM MOST
PLACES VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MOST OF THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 58-63 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER A VERY NICE WEDNESDAY WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT MONDAY...BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER COOL DOWN NEXT TUESDAY. WE DO
HAVE SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING PRECIPITATION
IS NOT THAT HIGH ON ANY GIVEN DAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW MORE CHANCES OF
RAIN THEREAFTER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM THEIR LOW POINT IN THE LOWER 50S
TODAY...TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE MID 60S BY FRIDAY.
THE SFC WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM THINGS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
WEST AND SET UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN OUR AREA THERE WILL BE
AN AREA OF WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BASED ON THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND CONVECTION
WOULD LIKELY BE VERY HIT AND MISS WITH MOST FOLKS LIKELY MISSING OUT
ON IT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND US A
FEW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ONE SUCH
SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL THROW SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. OVERALL...AT LEAST THE WAY IT LOOK RIGHT NOW...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT LESS THAN 50/50. WE SHOULD BE IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES ON SUNDAY SO CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY
GOOD FOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE PICTURE ON MONDAY BUT
FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION OF HAVING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE GENERAL
AREA FROM THIS UPPER WAVE...WILL CALL FOR CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...OR GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THIS FAR OUT GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND OF ALL MODELS...WHICH GIVES US A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 290900
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NEB ZONES)...THIS SHOULD
BE A PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED
EXPECTATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY PLEASANT
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A SOMEWHAT CLOUDIER DAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...THINGS GET A BIT TRICKIER SOUTHWARD
INTO KS ZONES (ESPECIALLY OUR BOTTOM-MOST 3 COUNTIES)...AS THERE
ARE SOME MODELS (FOR EXAMPLE THE GFS) SUGGESTING THAT THIS AREA
WILL BE BRUSHED BY THE FAR NORTHERN EDGES OF SOMEWHAT BETTER
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...OTHER
MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM 4KM WRF/ARW RUNS
(INCLUDING THE OFTEN-RELIABLE NSSL WRF) ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
THESE MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...ALBEIT A RATHER CLOSE CALL. TO MAKE A LONG STORY
SHORTER...CONSIDERED ADDING A FORMAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF OUR KS COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE MIXED MESSAGES IN THE MODEL WORLD...AND
ALSO CONSIDERING THAT WE HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A "DRY"
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST CWA-WIDE THESE PAST FEW
DAYS...OPTED TO TAKE A "MIDDLE GROUND" APPROACH FOR NOW BY SIMPLY
INSERTING A "SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES" INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE INTENDED MESSAGE HERE IS THAT ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY PRECIP CHANCES...THE SPRINKLE MENTION BETTER IMPLIES THAT
CHANCES ARE NOT TRULY "ZERO" EITHER. OBVIOUSLY THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS JUST IN CASE PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY NEED BEEFED UP A
BIT IN THIS TRICKY SOUTHERN AREA.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM: WE ARE ALREADY
IN THE MIDST OF A "CLOSE CALL" REGARDING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...AS A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED AXIS OF
SHOWERS /NON-SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST-CENTRAL KS IS
JUST BARELY REMAINING OUTSIDE OUR CWA FOR THE MOST PART. THIS
CONVECTION IS FOCUSED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD
FRONT POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL KS...AND IS
LARGELY TIED TO AN AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS CONVECTION IS ALIGNED ALMOST PERFECTLY WITH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF A VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD-SINKING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AXIS...WHICH CLEARED THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN THE BIGGER PICTURE OF
THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND THE LATEST MODEL
DATA DEPICT LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AS THE LOCAL REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND
THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR DODGE
CITY. WHILE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A LARGELY
CLEAR NIGHT THUS FAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AT LEAST A THIN VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS IS INCREASINGLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST KS CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...THINGS ARE LARGELY
PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN REACH OF
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT/MAINLY NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS...COMBINED WITH THE WELCOMED PRESENCE OF NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE-JULY NORMALS IN MOST
AREAS...AND ULTIMATELY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTHWEST...NEAR 60 CENTRAL AND MID-60S SOUTH.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH 7AM): OTHER THAN A CONTINUED GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LITTLE
CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT IT APPEARS
THAT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
BARELY MISS OUT ON THE CENTRAL-NORTHEAST KS CONVECTION...WILL BE
REMOVING THE PREVIOUSLY-EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
IN OUR FAR SOUTH FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

TODAY (7AM-7PM): SEE THE OPENING PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR THE BASIC
REASONING BEHIND INTRODUCING SPRINKLE POTENTIAL INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHERN CWA IN KS. HOWEVER...BARRING AN UNEXPECTED NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS...PLAN
ON MAINTAINING A THUNDERSTORM-FREE FORECAST GOING FORWARD INTO THE
OFFICIAL DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD. AGAIN...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA (ESSENTIALLY NEB ZONES)...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH ENOUGH IN A
DRY DAY TO PRECLUDE EVEN A SPRINKLE MENTION. THAT BEING SAID
THOUGH...THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS ACTUALLY DO TRY TO DROP A FEW
SPRINKLES OUT OF AN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...BUT WILL
LARGELY IGNORE THIS FOR NOW WITH VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER
MODELS AND GIVEN THAT THIS LIMITED MOISTURE IS LARGELY AT/ABOVE
600MB. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...SEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS OVERHEAD...WITH HINTS OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST KS ONE. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS OVER KS SHOULD LARGELY STALL OUT
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA IN A WEST-T0-EAST FASHION. ALTHOUGH DO NOT
HAVE A GREAT FEEL FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...BEEFED UP SKY COVER
PERCENTAGES SOLIDLY INTO PARTLY CLOUDY TERRITORY MOST AREAS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...AND THERE COULD EASILY BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY TOO...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN DEPICTING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE(S) PASSING
THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EASTWARD
OVER THE HEART OF THE CWA...PROMOTING NOT ONLY LIGHT BREEZES THAT
WILL LARGELY AVERAGE UNDER 10 MPH...BUT ALSO A GRADUALLY VARYING
DIRECTION AS MANY PLACES SEE A TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF INCREASING CLOUDS HOLD THINGS BACK A TOUCH AND DID
DROP SOME AREAS (INCLUDING TRI-CITIES) 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT OVERALL STILL CALLING FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO TOP
OUT IN THE 82-85 RANGE...WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE
LATE JULY DAY.

TONIGHT (7PM-7AM): AGAIN...SEE OPENING PARAGRAPH FOR FURTHER
INSIGHT INTO THE DECISION TO ADD SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY INTO PARTS
OF KS ZONES. ALTHOUGH MODEL DISCREPANCY CONTINUES REGARDING
NORTHERN KS PRECIP POTENTIAL...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE VERY
LATEST 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOW KEEPING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA (MUCH THE SAME PLACEMENT AS THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS TONIGHT...FLOW OVER THE CWA
STARTS TO TURN EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY...IN RESPONSE TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE STARTING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD A BIT.
WHILE FAIRLY SUBTLE LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE "SOME" COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN VOID OF
EVEN SPRINKLES...WITH A LIKELY DECREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AS WELL FROM THE DAYTIME...THUS PROMOTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE IN THE PRESENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...BUT LIKELY
TAKING ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY AND/OR WESTERLY COMPONENT. ALL IN
ALL...LOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MAY END UP BEING VERY
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL AIM MOST
PLACES VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MOST OF THE CWA BOTTOMING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 58-63 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AFTER A VERY NICE WEDNESDAY WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT MONDAY...BEFORE PERHAPS ANOTHER COOL DOWN NEXT TUESDAY. WE DO
HAVE SEVERAL RAIN CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING PRECIPITATION
IS NOT THAT HIGH ON ANY GIVEN DAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY END UP
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW MORE CHANCES OF
RAIN THEREAFTER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM THEIR LOW POINT IN THE LOWER 50S
TODAY...TO AROUND 60 ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE MID 60S BY FRIDAY.
THE SFC WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM THINGS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
WEST AND SET UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN OUR AREA THERE WILL BE
AN AREA OF WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD POP A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BASED ON THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND CONVECTION
WOULD LIKELY BE VERY HIT AND MISS WITH MOST FOLKS LIKELY MISSING OUT
ON IT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND US A
FEW SHORTWAVES AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ONE SUCH
SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL THROW SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. OVERALL...AT LEAST THE WAY IT LOOK RIGHT NOW...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LOW AT LESS THAN 50/50. WE SHOULD BE IN
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES ON SUNDAY SO CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY
GOOD FOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE PICTURE ON MONDAY BUT
FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. GIVEN
THE EXPECTATION OF HAVING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE GENERAL
AREA FROM THIS UPPER WAVE...WILL CALL FOR CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH...OR GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THIS FAR OUT GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND OF ALL MODELS...WHICH GIVES US A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KLBF 290846
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED THAT THE FRONT HAD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS MISSOURI...KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND
COLORADO. THERE WAS ALSO A BOUNDARY INDICATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
FROM A CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE HIGH
PLAINS WHEN THE WEAK FRONT PRESSES NORTH FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING
AND STALLS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOISTURE
BEGINS RETURNING TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND TO THE
SANDHILLS. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FRONT CONTINUES OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE NEWS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WESTERN RIDGE DOES AMPLIFLY ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
A SLIGHT PUSH UP OF TEMPS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS GO FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 80S TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GUIDANCE DROPPING
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CONCERN INITIALLY WITH MOISTURE AS
PWATS ONLY NEAR 1 INCH...WHICH IS LOW FOR THE FIRST OF AUGUST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WHICH IS NOT
THAT FAR SOUTH...AND PWATS RETURN TO 1.50 INCHES OR HIGHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR POPS THURSDAY...AND WILL CONFINE TO FAR
SW ZONES WHERE MOISTURE RETURN IS BEST. FRIDAY STILL DOES NOT
LOOK GREAT BUT BETTER DYNAMICS UPSTAIRS AND WITH COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...MAY BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE CAP. BETTER CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH STILL WILL FOCUS ON MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING OF
THE WAVES. GENERALLY THE BEST TIME WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR



000
FXUS63 KLBF 290846
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED THAT THE FRONT HAD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS MISSOURI...KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND
COLORADO. THERE WAS ALSO A BOUNDARY INDICATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
FROM A CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE HIGH
PLAINS WHEN THE WEAK FRONT PRESSES NORTH FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING
AND STALLS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOISTURE
BEGINS RETURNING TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND TO THE
SANDHILLS. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FRONT CONTINUES OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE NEWS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WESTERN RIDGE DOES AMPLIFLY ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
A SLIGHT PUSH UP OF TEMPS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS GO FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 80S TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GUIDANCE DROPPING
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CONCERN INITIALLY WITH MOISTURE AS
PWATS ONLY NEAR 1 INCH...WHICH IS LOW FOR THE FIRST OF AUGUST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE...WHICH IS NOT
THAT FAR SOUTH...AND PWATS RETURN TO 1.50 INCHES OR HIGHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR POPS THURSDAY...AND WILL CONFINE TO FAR
SW ZONES WHERE MOISTURE RETURN IS BEST. FRIDAY STILL DOES NOT
LOOK GREAT BUT BETTER DYNAMICS UPSTAIRS AND WITH COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...MAY BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE CAP. BETTER CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH STILL WILL FOCUS ON MODEL BLEND FOR TIMING OF
THE WAVES. GENERALLY THE BEST TIME WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH IN THE EAST. REGION COMES
UNDER MORE DOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY WITH ALL THREE MODELS
TRYING TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT POP AT THIS TIME AS MODELS LACK CONSISTENCY
IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

REGION REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PERIODIC CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO IN THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KGID 290536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 290536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 290536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 290536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 290536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 290536
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOULD BE A CONSIDERABLY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" UPCOMING 24 HOURS IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT.
FIRST OFF...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY VERY HIGH IN VFR CEILING...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD COULD FEATURE SOME CONSIDERABLE
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. VISIBILITY-WISE...CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
RATHER HIGH IN VFR...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE THE SLIMMEST
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT HAZE...SO AT LEAST HINTED AT THIS WITH A "6SM BR" MENTION.
AS FOR SURFACE WIND...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SPEEDS AT/BELOW 6KT...AND WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION...DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE IN
NATURE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KLBF 290453
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1153 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  LOW TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES TD/S REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST...MORNING LOWS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORNING LOWS AT KLBF
NEAR 50F...WHICH IS A DEGREE ABOVE THE RECORD LOW OF 49.  BUT AT
THIS TIME WE FEEL THE RECORD IS SAFE AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS OF
LATE HAS HAD TROUBLE COMPENSATING FOR THE INCREASED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WE/VE SEEN.  THUS HEDGED OUR LOWS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR MOST PLACES...WHICH SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY IN THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HIGHS
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES...WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID 80S.  THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE...LIMITING ANY THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER IF A ROUGE STORM WERE TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLE WHERE INCREASING
THETA BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.  AS OF NOW CHANCES FOR
AN STORM IS LESS THAN 10%...SO WILL FORGO ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A CHECK ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST
OTHERWISE BUT GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE
IN ACROSS A SMATTERING OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB.

THE WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS FRIDAY MAY HOLD HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN NEB WITH NEAR 90 SOUTH. UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 WILL HOLD ALL AREAS FOR THURSDAY.

K INDICES IN BOTH MODELS SURGE INTO THE 40S DURING THE PEAK AFTN
HEATING PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST POPS
ARE ISOLATED. MOISTURE IN THE NAM INCREASES SMARTLY FRIDAY WITH
AMBIENT PWAT OF 1.33 INCHES. IF THE NAM IS NOT TOO FAST WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN PROCESS THEN ISOLD POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THE
MINIMUM. IN FACT...THE 2500J/KG MLCAPE...BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT
CALCULATED TO 450 MB AND H700MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10C WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SO WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT THE DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM SPC TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE DESERT SW AND THEN AMPLIFY NORTH INTO
THE ROCKIES. THIS PLACES THE FCST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GFS AND ECM BOTH PIN THE STRONGEST HEATING AT 700MB ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND WRN REACHES OF CNTL HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTING A WEAK
CAP...LESS THAN 14C...WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE POP
FORECAST IS ISOLATED GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FORCING ALOFT AND PWAT
AROUND 1 INCH. WEAK COLD FRONTS APPEAR TO BE BACKING INTO THE FCST
AREA IN THE GFS AND ECM MODELS PREVENTING GREATER MOISTURE RETURN.

SUNDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST
A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. OTHERWISE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 APPEAR
TO BE THE OPERATIVE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE
TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...TAYLOR




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290452
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND AROUND 108 IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S
AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF 2500+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY UNDER
AN ERODING CAP AND AROUND 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS AS PWATS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
1.9 TO 1.8 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290452
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND AROUND 108 IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S
AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF 2500+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY UNDER
AN ERODING CAP AND AROUND 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS AS PWATS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
1.9 TO 1.8 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 290452
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND AROUND 108 IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S
AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF 2500+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY UNDER
AN ERODING CAP AND AROUND 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS AS PWATS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
1.9 TO 1.8 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 290015
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
715 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  LOW TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES TD/S REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST...MORNING LOWS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORNING LOWS AT KLBF
NEAR 50F...WHICH IS A DEGREE ABOVE THE RECORD LOW OF 49.  BUT AT
THIS TIME WE FEEL THE RECORD IS SAFE AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS OF
LATE HAS HAD TROUBLE COMPENSATING FOR THE INCREASED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WE/VE SEEN.  THUS HEDGED OUR LOWS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR MOST PLACES...WHICH SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY IN THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HIGHS
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES...WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID 80S.  THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE...LIMITING ANY THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER IF A ROUGE STORM WERE TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLE WHERE INCREASING
THETA BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.  AS OF NOW CHANCES FOR
AN STORM IS LESS THAN 10%...SO WILL FORGO ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A CHECK ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST
OTHERWISE BUT GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE
IN ACROSS A SMATTERING OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB.

THE WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS FRIDAY MAY HOLD HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN NEB WITH NEAR 90 SOUTH. UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 WILL HOLD ALL AREAS FOR THURSDAY.

K INDICES IN BOTH MODELS SURGE INTO THE 40S DURING THE PEAK AFTN
HEATING PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST POPS
ARE ISOLATED. MOISTURE IN THE NAM INCREASES SMARTLY FRIDAY WITH
AMBIENT PWAT OF 1.33 INCHES. IF THE NAM IS NOT TOO FAST WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN PROCESS THEN ISOLD POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THE
MINIMUM. IN FACT...THE 2500J/KG MLCAPE...BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT
CALCULATED TO 450 MB AND H700MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10C WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SO WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT THE DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM SPC TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE DESERT SW AND THEN AMPLIFY NORTH INTO
THE ROCKIES. THIS PLACES THE FCST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GFS AND ECM BOTH PIN THE STRONGEST HEATING AT 700MB ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND WRN REACHES OF CNTL HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTING A WEAK
CAP...LESS THAN 14C...WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE POP
FORECAST IS ISOLATED GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FORCING ALOFT AND PWAT
AROUND 1 INCH. WEAK COLD FRONTS APPEAR TO BE BACKING INTO THE FCST
AREA IN THE GFS AND ECM MODELS PREVENTING GREATER MOISTURE RETURN.

SUNDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST
A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. OTHERWISE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 APPEAR
TO BE THE OPERATIVE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS 15
KTS OR LESS AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...TAYLOR



000
FXUS63 KLBF 290015
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
715 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  LOW TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES TD/S REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST...MORNING LOWS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORNING LOWS AT KLBF
NEAR 50F...WHICH IS A DEGREE ABOVE THE RECORD LOW OF 49.  BUT AT
THIS TIME WE FEEL THE RECORD IS SAFE AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS OF
LATE HAS HAD TROUBLE COMPENSATING FOR THE INCREASED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WE/VE SEEN.  THUS HEDGED OUR LOWS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR MOST PLACES...WHICH SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY IN THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HIGHS
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES...WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID 80S.  THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE...LIMITING ANY THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER IF A ROUGE STORM WERE TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLE WHERE INCREASING
THETA BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.  AS OF NOW CHANCES FOR
AN STORM IS LESS THAN 10%...SO WILL FORGO ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A CHECK ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST
OTHERWISE BUT GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE
IN ACROSS A SMATTERING OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB.

THE WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS FRIDAY MAY HOLD HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN NEB WITH NEAR 90 SOUTH. UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 WILL HOLD ALL AREAS FOR THURSDAY.

K INDICES IN BOTH MODELS SURGE INTO THE 40S DURING THE PEAK AFTN
HEATING PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST POPS
ARE ISOLATED. MOISTURE IN THE NAM INCREASES SMARTLY FRIDAY WITH
AMBIENT PWAT OF 1.33 INCHES. IF THE NAM IS NOT TOO FAST WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN PROCESS THEN ISOLD POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THE
MINIMUM. IN FACT...THE 2500J/KG MLCAPE...BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT
CALCULATED TO 450 MB AND H700MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10C WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SO WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT THE DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM SPC TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE DESERT SW AND THEN AMPLIFY NORTH INTO
THE ROCKIES. THIS PLACES THE FCST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GFS AND ECM BOTH PIN THE STRONGEST HEATING AT 700MB ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND WRN REACHES OF CNTL HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTING A WEAK
CAP...LESS THAN 14C...WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE POP
FORECAST IS ISOLATED GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FORCING ALOFT AND PWAT
AROUND 1 INCH. WEAK COLD FRONTS APPEAR TO BE BACKING INTO THE FCST
AREA IN THE GFS AND ECM MODELS PREVENTING GREATER MOISTURE RETURN.

SUNDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST
A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. OTHERWISE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 APPEAR
TO BE THE OPERATIVE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS 15
KTS OR LESS AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...TAYLOR




000
FXUS63 KLBF 290015
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
715 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  LOW TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES TD/S REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST...MORNING LOWS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORNING LOWS AT KLBF
NEAR 50F...WHICH IS A DEGREE ABOVE THE RECORD LOW OF 49.  BUT AT
THIS TIME WE FEEL THE RECORD IS SAFE AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS OF
LATE HAS HAD TROUBLE COMPENSATING FOR THE INCREASED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WE/VE SEEN.  THUS HEDGED OUR LOWS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR MOST PLACES...WHICH SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY IN THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HIGHS
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES...WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID 80S.  THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE...LIMITING ANY THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER IF A ROUGE STORM WERE TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLE WHERE INCREASING
THETA BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.  AS OF NOW CHANCES FOR
AN STORM IS LESS THAN 10%...SO WILL FORGO ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A CHECK ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST
OTHERWISE BUT GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE
IN ACROSS A SMATTERING OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB.

THE WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS FRIDAY MAY HOLD HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN NEB WITH NEAR 90 SOUTH. UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 WILL HOLD ALL AREAS FOR THURSDAY.

K INDICES IN BOTH MODELS SURGE INTO THE 40S DURING THE PEAK AFTN
HEATING PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST POPS
ARE ISOLATED. MOISTURE IN THE NAM INCREASES SMARTLY FRIDAY WITH
AMBIENT PWAT OF 1.33 INCHES. IF THE NAM IS NOT TOO FAST WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN PROCESS THEN ISOLD POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THE
MINIMUM. IN FACT...THE 2500J/KG MLCAPE...BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT
CALCULATED TO 450 MB AND H700MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10C WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SO WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT THE DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM SPC TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE DESERT SW AND THEN AMPLIFY NORTH INTO
THE ROCKIES. THIS PLACES THE FCST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GFS AND ECM BOTH PIN THE STRONGEST HEATING AT 700MB ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND WRN REACHES OF CNTL HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTING A WEAK
CAP...LESS THAN 14C...WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE POP
FORECAST IS ISOLATED GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FORCING ALOFT AND PWAT
AROUND 1 INCH. WEAK COLD FRONTS APPEAR TO BE BACKING INTO THE FCST
AREA IN THE GFS AND ECM MODELS PREVENTING GREATER MOISTURE RETURN.

SUNDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST
A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. OTHERWISE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 APPEAR
TO BE THE OPERATIVE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS 15
KTS OR LESS AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...TAYLOR




000
FXUS63 KGID 282318
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
618 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN INCREASINGLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY
OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 282318
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
618 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN INCREASINGLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY
OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 282318
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
618 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN INCREASINGLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY
OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 282315
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND AROUND 108 IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S
AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF 2500+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY UNDER
AN ERODING CAP AND AROUND 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS AS PWATS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
1.9 TO 1.8 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC COLD FRONT IS
THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 06Z THROUGH
TOMORROW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282315
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND AROUND 108 IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S
AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF 2500+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY UNDER
AN ERODING CAP AND AROUND 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS AS PWATS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
1.9 TO 1.8 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC COLD FRONT IS
THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AFTER 06Z THROUGH
TOMORROW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KGID 282028
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...A PASSING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINAL AREAS AS OF MIDDAY.
EXPECTING THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.
NOT EXPECTING THE MVFR BASES AT KGRI AS OF 17Z TO STICK AROUND
LONG. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED...REMAINING
NORTHERLY. AS THE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...POTENTIAL
WILL BE THERE FOR TO BE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 282028
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...A PASSING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINAL AREAS AS OF MIDDAY.
EXPECTING THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.
NOT EXPECTING THE MVFR BASES AT KGRI AS OF 17Z TO STICK AROUND
LONG. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED...REMAINING
NORTHERLY. AS THE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...POTENTIAL
WILL BE THERE FOR TO BE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282028
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND AROUND 108 IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S
AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF 2500+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY UNDER
AN ERODING CAP AND AROUND 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS AS PWATS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
1.9 TO 1.8 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282028
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND AROUND 108 IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S
AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF 2500+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY UNDER
AN ERODING CAP AND AROUND 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS AS PWATS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
1.9 TO 1.8 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KGID 282028
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...A PASSING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINAL AREAS AS OF MIDDAY.
EXPECTING THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.
NOT EXPECTING THE MVFR BASES AT KGRI AS OF 17Z TO STICK AROUND
LONG. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED...REMAINING
NORTHERLY. AS THE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...POTENTIAL
WILL BE THERE FOR TO BE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282028
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND AROUND 108 IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S
AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF 2500+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY UNDER
AN ERODING CAP AND AROUND 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS AS PWATS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
1.9 TO 1.8 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282028
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND AROUND 108 IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S
AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF 2500+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY UNDER
AN ERODING CAP AND AROUND 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS AS PWATS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
1.9 TO 1.8 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KGID 282028
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...A PASSING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINAL AREAS AS OF MIDDAY.
EXPECTING THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.
NOT EXPECTING THE MVFR BASES AT KGRI AS OF 17Z TO STICK AROUND
LONG. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED...REMAINING
NORTHERLY. AS THE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...POTENTIAL
WILL BE THERE FOR TO BE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282028
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND AROUND 108 IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S
AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF 2500+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY UNDER
AN ERODING CAP AND AROUND 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS AS PWATS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
1.9 TO 1.8 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282028
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND AROUND 108 IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S
AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF 2500+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY UNDER
AN ERODING CAP AND AROUND 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS AS PWATS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
1.9 TO 1.8 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282028
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND AROUND 108 IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S
AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF 2500+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY UNDER
AN ERODING CAP AND AROUND 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS AS PWATS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
1.9 TO 1.8 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KGID 282028
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...A PASSING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINAL AREAS AS OF MIDDAY.
EXPECTING THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.
NOT EXPECTING THE MVFR BASES AT KGRI AS OF 17Z TO STICK AROUND
LONG. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED...REMAINING
NORTHERLY. AS THE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...POTENTIAL
WILL BE THERE FOR TO BE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 282028
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...A PASSING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINAL AREAS AS OF MIDDAY.
EXPECTING THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.
NOT EXPECTING THE MVFR BASES AT KGRI AS OF 17Z TO STICK AROUND
LONG. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED...REMAINING
NORTHERLY. AS THE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...POTENTIAL
WILL BE THERE FOR TO BE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282028
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND AROUND 108 IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S
AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF 2500+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY UNDER
AN ERODING CAP AND AROUND 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS AS PWATS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
1.9 TO 1.8 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KGID 282028
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OBVIOUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FOR
OUR AREA...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
NEAR THE MN/ND/CANADA BORDER. A LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE REST OF THE DAY HAS BEEN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...WHEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
/AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS TO THE SOUTH/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINGERING WEAKER 700MB BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...WITH 3 PM OBS SHOWING ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE CORNER
HAVING WINDS SWITCHED TO THE N/NW. THE MORE PLEASANT DEWPOINTS
HAVE LAGGED BUT ARE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY PUSH IN...AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE N/NW TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THAT FAR SE CORNER.

BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY
OF THAT MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN A CHANGING IN THE THINKING THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NEAR THE MAIN SFC FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA BOUNDARY...BUT SOME
STILL SHOW PORTIONS OF OUR NC KS COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED...SO
WASNT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS. INTO TO
TOMORROW...THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CANADA...WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SFC FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND KEPT THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST IN PLACE...THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARY.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE...THANKS TO
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN AND DROPPING DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH
TO MID 60S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A NICE
DAY...DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE
NW...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN AND
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AGAIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE AND BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. H85 TEMPS WILL INCREASE
RISING ROUGHLY 5C FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING
THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS AND HOLDING THERE FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS WILL RETURN MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO A WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TOWARDS DAY 7 WITH COOLER
BACKING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE EAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAMES ARE NOT OVERLY PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT
THIS BEING SAID CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO EITHER. LOW POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN/WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS
WEEK AND CHANCES EXIST INTERMITTENTLY AS PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE
RIDGE AND CROSS THE PLAINS. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THESE WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT AND
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS MAY CHANGE AND DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS
THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...A PASSING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINAL AREAS AS OF MIDDAY.
EXPECTING THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.
NOT EXPECTING THE MVFR BASES AT KGRI AS OF 17Z TO STICK AROUND
LONG. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED...REMAINING
NORTHERLY. AS THE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...POTENTIAL
WILL BE THERE FOR TO BE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KOAX 282028
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN HOT AND HUMID...WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND AROUND 108 IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 80S
AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT WHERE
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL BE AIDED BY AN AXIS OF 2500+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY UNDER
AN ERODING CAP AND AROUND 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EVENING STORMS AS PWATS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
1.9 TO 1.8 RANGE. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER IF A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP...EVENTUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KLBF 282004
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
304 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  LOW TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES TD/S REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST...MORNING LOWS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORNING LOWS AT KLBF
NEAR 50F...WHICH IS A DEGREE ABOVE THE RECORD LOW OF 49.  BUT AT
THIS TIME WE FEEL THE RECORD IS SAFE AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS OF
LATE HAS HAD TROUBLE COMPENSATING FOR THE INCREASED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WE/VE SEEN.  THUS HEDGED OUR LOWS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR MOST PLACES...WHICH SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY IN THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HIGHS
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES...WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID 80S.  THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE...LIMITING ANY THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER IF A ROUGE STORM WERE TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLE WHERE INCREASING
THETA BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.  AS OF NOW CHANCES FOR
AN STORM IS LESS THAN 10%...SO WILL FORGO ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES FOR ISOLATED AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A CHECK ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE BUT
GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE IN ACROSS A
SMATTERING OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB.

THE WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS FRIDAY MAY HOLD HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN NEB WITH NEAR 90 SOUTH. UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 WILL HOLD ALL AREAS FOR THURSDAY.

K INDICES IN BOTH MODELS SURGE INTO THE 40S DURING THE PEAK AFTN
HEATING PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST POPS
ARE ISOLATED. MOISTURE IN THE NAM INCREASES SMARTLY FRIDAY WITH
AMBIENT PWAT OF 1.33 INCHES. IF THE NAM IS NOT TOO FAST WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN PROCESS THEN ISOLD POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THE
MINIMUM. IN FACT...THE 2500J/KG MLCAPE...BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT
CALCULATED TO 450 MB AND H700MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10C WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SO WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT THE DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM SPC TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE DESERT SW AND THEN AMPLIFY NORTH INTO
THE ROCKIES. THIS PLACES THE FCST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GFS AND ECM BOTH PIN THE STRONGEST HEATING AT 700MB ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND WRN REACHES OF CNTL HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTING A WEAK
CAP...LESS THAN 14C...WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE POP
FORECAST IS ISOLATED GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FORCING ALOFT AND PWAT
AROUND 1 INCH. WEAK COLD FRONTS APPEAR TO BE BACKING INTO THE FCST
AREA IN THE GFS AND ECM MODELS PREVENTING GREATER MOISTURE RETURN.

SUNDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST
A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. OTHERWISE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 APPEAR
TO BE THE OPERATIVE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT WEAKENING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JACOBS




000
FXUS63 KLBF 282004
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
304 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  LOW TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES TD/S REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST...MORNING LOWS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORNING LOWS AT KLBF
NEAR 50F...WHICH IS A DEGREE ABOVE THE RECORD LOW OF 49.  BUT AT
THIS TIME WE FEEL THE RECORD IS SAFE AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS OF
LATE HAS HAD TROUBLE COMPENSATING FOR THE INCREASED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WE/VE SEEN.  THUS HEDGED OUR LOWS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR MOST PLACES...WHICH SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY IN THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HIGHS
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES...WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID 80S.  THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE...LIMITING ANY THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER IF A ROUGE STORM WERE TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLE WHERE INCREASING
THETA BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.  AS OF NOW CHANCES FOR
AN STORM IS LESS THAN 10%...SO WILL FORGO ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES FOR ISOLATED AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A CHECK ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE BUT
GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE IN ACROSS A
SMATTERING OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB.

THE WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS FRIDAY MAY HOLD HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN NEB WITH NEAR 90 SOUTH. UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 WILL HOLD ALL AREAS FOR THURSDAY.

K INDICES IN BOTH MODELS SURGE INTO THE 40S DURING THE PEAK AFTN
HEATING PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST POPS
ARE ISOLATED. MOISTURE IN THE NAM INCREASES SMARTLY FRIDAY WITH
AMBIENT PWAT OF 1.33 INCHES. IF THE NAM IS NOT TOO FAST WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN PROCESS THEN ISOLD POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THE
MINIMUM. IN FACT...THE 2500J/KG MLCAPE...BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT
CALCULATED TO 450 MB AND H700MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10C WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SO WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT THE DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM SPC TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE DESERT SW AND THEN AMPLIFY NORTH INTO
THE ROCKIES. THIS PLACES THE FCST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GFS AND ECM BOTH PIN THE STRONGEST HEATING AT 700MB ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND WRN REACHES OF CNTL HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTING A WEAK
CAP...LESS THAN 14C...WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE POP
FORECAST IS ISOLATED GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FORCING ALOFT AND PWAT
AROUND 1 INCH. WEAK COLD FRONTS APPEAR TO BE BACKING INTO THE FCST
AREA IN THE GFS AND ECM MODELS PREVENTING GREATER MOISTURE RETURN.

SUNDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST
A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. OTHERWISE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 APPEAR
TO BE THE OPERATIVE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT WEAKENING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JACOBS




000
FXUS63 KLBF 282004
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
304 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  LOW TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES TD/S REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST...MORNING LOWS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORNING LOWS AT KLBF
NEAR 50F...WHICH IS A DEGREE ABOVE THE RECORD LOW OF 49.  BUT AT
THIS TIME WE FEEL THE RECORD IS SAFE AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS OF
LATE HAS HAD TROUBLE COMPENSATING FOR THE INCREASED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WE/VE SEEN.  THUS HEDGED OUR LOWS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR MOST PLACES...WHICH SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY IN THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HIGHS
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES...WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID 80S.  THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE...LIMITING ANY THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER IF A ROUGE STORM WERE TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLE WHERE INCREASING
THETA BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.  AS OF NOW CHANCES FOR
AN STORM IS LESS THAN 10%...SO WILL FORGO ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES FOR ISOLATED AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A CHECK ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE BUT
GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE IN ACROSS A
SMATTERING OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB.

THE WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS FRIDAY MAY HOLD HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN NEB WITH NEAR 90 SOUTH. UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 WILL HOLD ALL AREAS FOR THURSDAY.

K INDICES IN BOTH MODELS SURGE INTO THE 40S DURING THE PEAK AFTN
HEATING PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST POPS
ARE ISOLATED. MOISTURE IN THE NAM INCREASES SMARTLY FRIDAY WITH
AMBIENT PWAT OF 1.33 INCHES. IF THE NAM IS NOT TOO FAST WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN PROCESS THEN ISOLD POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THE
MINIMUM. IN FACT...THE 2500J/KG MLCAPE...BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT
CALCULATED TO 450 MB AND H700MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10C WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SO WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT THE DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM SPC TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE DESERT SW AND THEN AMPLIFY NORTH INTO
THE ROCKIES. THIS PLACES THE FCST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GFS AND ECM BOTH PIN THE STRONGEST HEATING AT 700MB ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND WRN REACHES OF CNTL HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTING A WEAK
CAP...LESS THAN 14C...WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE POP
FORECAST IS ISOLATED GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FORCING ALOFT AND PWAT
AROUND 1 INCH. WEAK COLD FRONTS APPEAR TO BE BACKING INTO THE FCST
AREA IN THE GFS AND ECM MODELS PREVENTING GREATER MOISTURE RETURN.

SUNDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST
A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. OTHERWISE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 APPEAR
TO BE THE OPERATIVE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT WEAKENING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JACOBS




000
FXUS63 KLBF 282004
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
304 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  LOW TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL...AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES TD/S REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST...MORNING LOWS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORNING LOWS AT KLBF
NEAR 50F...WHICH IS A DEGREE ABOVE THE RECORD LOW OF 49.  BUT AT
THIS TIME WE FEEL THE RECORD IS SAFE AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS OF
LATE HAS HAD TROUBLE COMPENSATING FOR THE INCREASED LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WE/VE SEEN.  THUS HEDGED OUR LOWS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR MOST PLACES...WHICH SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY IN THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HIGHS
WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES...WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID 80S.  THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE...LIMITING ANY THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER IF A ROUGE STORM WERE TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLE WHERE INCREASING
THETA BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.  AS OF NOW CHANCES FOR
AN STORM IS LESS THAN 10%...SO WILL FORGO ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES FOR ISOLATED AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A CHECK ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE BUT
GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE IN ACROSS A
SMATTERING OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB.

THE WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS FRIDAY MAY HOLD HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN NEB WITH NEAR 90 SOUTH. UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 WILL HOLD ALL AREAS FOR THURSDAY.

K INDICES IN BOTH MODELS SURGE INTO THE 40S DURING THE PEAK AFTN
HEATING PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST POPS
ARE ISOLATED. MOISTURE IN THE NAM INCREASES SMARTLY FRIDAY WITH
AMBIENT PWAT OF 1.33 INCHES. IF THE NAM IS NOT TOO FAST WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN PROCESS THEN ISOLD POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THE
MINIMUM. IN FACT...THE 2500J/KG MLCAPE...BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT
CALCULATED TO 450 MB AND H700MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10C WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SO WE WILL BE
LOOKING AT THE DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM SPC TONIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE DESERT SW AND THEN AMPLIFY NORTH INTO
THE ROCKIES. THIS PLACES THE FCST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GFS AND ECM BOTH PIN THE STRONGEST HEATING AT 700MB ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND WRN REACHES OF CNTL HIGH PLAINS SUGGESTING A WEAK
CAP...LESS THAN 14C...WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE POP
FORECAST IS ISOLATED GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN FORCING ALOFT AND PWAT
AROUND 1 INCH. WEAK COLD FRONTS APPEAR TO BE BACKING INTO THE FCST
AREA IN THE GFS AND ECM MODELS PREVENTING GREATER MOISTURE RETURN.

SUNDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST
A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. OTHERWISE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 APPEAR
TO BE THE OPERATIVE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT WEAKENING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JACOBS




000
FXUS63 KLBF 281736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT WEAKENING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
CLIMATE...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 281736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT WEAKENING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
CLIMATE...MASEK



000
FXUS63 KLBF 281736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT WEAKENING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
CLIMATE...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 281736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT WEAKENING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS
CLIMATE...MASEK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 281735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWING STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWING STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KOAX 281735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWING STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KOAX 281735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWING STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KOAX 281735
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWING STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KGID 281716
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MESSAGE/HIGHLIGHT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL INVASION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MORE-NOTICEABLY DRIER/LESS-HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE MUCH-MORE UNCERTAIN
ELEMENT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS (AND FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ONLY THE
NEXT 6-9 HOURS) INVOLVES HOW MUCH (HOW LITTLE?) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...AND WHETHER AT
LEAST A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE YET THIS
MORNING...AND ALSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED SURFACE COLD NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA.

STARTING WITH A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW:
AS OF THIS WRITING AT 240 AM...LITERALLY THE ENTIRE CWA STILL HAS
REMAINED VOID OF ALL CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...DESPITE
THE OVER-AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTION OF VARIOUS MODELS THAT "SOMETHING"
SHOULD HAVE FORMED BY NOW. AS TOUCHED ON IN THE 1250 AM UPDATE
DISCUSSION...LIKELY THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTORS THUS FAR HAVE
BEEN A COMBINATION OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING EVIDENCED BY
700MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...ALONG WITH A LACK OF LARGER SCALE
CONVERGENCE/FORCING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB HAS ALLOWED A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THUS FAR TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE CWA. ALL THIS BEING SAID...LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS COULD FINALLY
START FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. IN ADDITION...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT AT LEAST AS SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (ACCAS) IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...POSSIBLY INDICATIVE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WELL- REMOVED FROM
THE ONGOING NORTHERN NEB CONVECTION. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW CHURNING OVER NORTHEAST MT...WITH THE LOCAL AREA RESIDING
ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRIMARY FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME
THOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS OF A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE WORKING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW- ALOFT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW AND A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE OK AREA TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
ENTIRE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NEB. AS A RESULT...BREEZES THUS FAR TONIGHT HAVE
AVERAGED AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20+ MPH FROM
THE SOUTH...HELPING KEEP TEMPS WELL UP A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 80 THUS FAR. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A MODEST DROP SHOULD STILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO DROP BELOW THE MID-70S FOR ACTUAL LOWS THIS MORNING.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST...

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH AROUND 7AM): ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) REMAIN UNDER "LIKELY" LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AM
EXPECTING AT LEAST "SOME" SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE
WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA OVER THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FORCING STARTS TO
IMPINGE ON THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COULD SEE ONGOING
NORTHERN NEB ACTIVITY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
ALSO SEE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
SEASONABLY STRONG 45-55KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH 20-40 POPS CWA-WIDE THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HIGHEST IN THE NORTH. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO
BE A HINDRANCE TO THINGS GETTING GOING...BUT EVEN THUS-FAR LESS
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE USUALLY-RELIABLE 4KM NSSL WRF DEPICT
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST. AS FOR ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT "ZERO"
GIVEN THAT ELEVATED CAPE IS AVERAGING UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT IS
ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR. BARRING ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT THAT
GENERATES A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING "SHOULD" BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE.

DAYTIME HOURS (GENERALLY 7AM-7PM): OBVIOUSLY WHATEVER DOES (OR
DOESN`T) GET GOING DURING THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WILL AFFECT WHAT
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY HAS IN STORE. AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT HAND...HAVE ONLY 20-30 POPS GOING FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING (HIGHEST EAST)...WITH THESE FAIRLY
LOW CHANCES THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATER IN
THE MORNING IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST-TO-EAST AS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
MOVES IN ALOFT. OF COURSE...THESE POPS MAY NEED RAISED
CONSIDERABLY IN SOME AREAS IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOWS ITS HAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE CWA VOID OF SHOWER/STORM MENTION...WHILE LEAVING 20-30 POPS
GOING WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE. AS FOR ANY THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WHILE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT MAINLY IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THINK
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY FEATURE A LULL IN STRONG-
SEVERE STORM PROSPECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. BY LATE IN THE DAY HOWEVER...A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES
MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA COULD POTENTIALLY FIND THEMSELVES
ON THE FRINGES OF AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
THAT SHOULD "MAINLY" MISS THE CWA JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING 20-30 POPS ONLY
SOUTHEAST OF A GENEVA-PLAINVILLE LINE...OR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
1/4 OF THE CWA. WITH INSTABILITY VALUES LIKELY UPWARDS OF 2000
J/KG AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING INTO AT
LEAST THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THIS POTENTIALLY BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
COULD EASILY PRODUCE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. AGREE
WITH SPC THOUGH IN KEEPING SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA ONLY IN A
MARGINAL RISK ZONE...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOCUSED FARTHER
EAST...DEEPER INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. SPEAKING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...FOR THOSE NOT BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION
TODAY...IT IS CLEARLY THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS IT STEADILY
INVADES THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...ITS PASSAGE MARKED BY A FEW HOURS OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS
SUSTAINED AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT TRULY
A "COOL" DAY BY ANY MEANS...HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MOST OF THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 RISING HIGHER INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND EVEN MID
90S IN THE MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA WHERE THE FRONT REACHES LAST.
IN FACT...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
OR JUST OVER 100 IN THE MITCHELL/OSBORNE COUNTIES AREA...WHICH
ALTHOUGH A TOUCH SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA DOES AT LEAST
NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL INVADE THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 40S IN SOME
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHILE 60S HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT: (GENERALLY 7PM-7AM WEDNESDAY): BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS
AND BEYOND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
SHOWER/STORM-FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST
IN CASE SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGERS OR DEVELOPS IN THAT
AREA. IN THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE...THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DECREASES AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ZONE STALLS OUT VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT AS IT BECOMES MORE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS (SUCH AS THE 6Z NAM)
SUGGEST THAT EVEN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN KS SHOULD BE VOID OF
CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...IT COULD BE A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND
THUS HAVE OPTED TO JUST BROAD-BRUSH A LOW POP THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LATE-NIGHT PERIOD...BUT ONLY WITHIN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
ROOKS/OSBORNE/MITCHELL. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...WOULD BE RATHER SURPRISED IF ANY LEGITIMATE SEVERE
THREAT EXISTED BEYOND MIDNIGHT OR SO. MEANWHILE...FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA THAT SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS/STORMS
TONIGHT...A SEASONABLY COOL AND LESS-HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE. IN
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT NORTH BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING 5-8
MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE
LOW TEMPS AIMED FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S THROUGH ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.
THIS REPRESENTS A MINOR...GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREE DOWNWARD NUDGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...BUT RAISED
THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS IT IS DIFFICULT
TO REALLY TANK DEWPOINTS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER MORE PLEASANT DAYS OF THE WEEK
WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER BEHIND THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP TO AROUND NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH OUR TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE FIRST SLIGHT POPS WORKING BACK
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCE IS
VERY SLIGHT AND WAS ONLY HINTED AT IN A FEW MODELS. AFTER HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE
CLIMBING BACK UP ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
THE WEST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST GIVING US
A TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED...WE WILL STILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE AND CAPABLE OF CATCHING RIDGE RUNNING SHORT WAVES AND
POSSIBLE MCS EVENTS. FORECAST MODELS STRUGGLE WITH ACCURATELY
DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO OUT
AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOW. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY BIG SYSTEMS
COMING THROUGH AND THUS WILL JUST CARRY THE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT POPS
IN PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED WHEN A FEW MODELS POSSIBLY BRING WEAK
TROUGHS THROUGH OUR AREA. OVERALL...THIS IS A PRETTY NORMAL PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT RATHER NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...A PASSING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINAL AREAS AS OF MIDDAY.
EXPECTING THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.
NOT EXPECTING THE MVFR BASES AT KGRI AS OF 17Z TO STICK AROUND
LONG. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED...REMAINING
NORTHERLY. AS THE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...POTENTIAL
WILL BE THERE FOR TO BE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KGID 281716
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MESSAGE/HIGHLIGHT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL INVASION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MORE-NOTICEABLY DRIER/LESS-HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE MUCH-MORE UNCERTAIN
ELEMENT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS (AND FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ONLY THE
NEXT 6-9 HOURS) INVOLVES HOW MUCH (HOW LITTLE?) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...AND WHETHER AT
LEAST A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE YET THIS
MORNING...AND ALSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED SURFACE COLD NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA.

STARTING WITH A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW:
AS OF THIS WRITING AT 240 AM...LITERALLY THE ENTIRE CWA STILL HAS
REMAINED VOID OF ALL CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...DESPITE
THE OVER-AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTION OF VARIOUS MODELS THAT "SOMETHING"
SHOULD HAVE FORMED BY NOW. AS TOUCHED ON IN THE 1250 AM UPDATE
DISCUSSION...LIKELY THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTORS THUS FAR HAVE
BEEN A COMBINATION OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING EVIDENCED BY
700MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...ALONG WITH A LACK OF LARGER SCALE
CONVERGENCE/FORCING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB HAS ALLOWED A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THUS FAR TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE CWA. ALL THIS BEING SAID...LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS COULD FINALLY
START FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. IN ADDITION...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT AT LEAST AS SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (ACCAS) IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...POSSIBLY INDICATIVE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WELL- REMOVED FROM
THE ONGOING NORTHERN NEB CONVECTION. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW CHURNING OVER NORTHEAST MT...WITH THE LOCAL AREA RESIDING
ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRIMARY FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME
THOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS OF A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE WORKING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW- ALOFT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW AND A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE OK AREA TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
ENTIRE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NEB. AS A RESULT...BREEZES THUS FAR TONIGHT HAVE
AVERAGED AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20+ MPH FROM
THE SOUTH...HELPING KEEP TEMPS WELL UP A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 80 THUS FAR. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A MODEST DROP SHOULD STILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO DROP BELOW THE MID-70S FOR ACTUAL LOWS THIS MORNING.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST...

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH AROUND 7AM): ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) REMAIN UNDER "LIKELY" LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AM
EXPECTING AT LEAST "SOME" SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE
WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA OVER THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FORCING STARTS TO
IMPINGE ON THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COULD SEE ONGOING
NORTHERN NEB ACTIVITY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
ALSO SEE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
SEASONABLY STRONG 45-55KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH 20-40 POPS CWA-WIDE THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HIGHEST IN THE NORTH. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO
BE A HINDRANCE TO THINGS GETTING GOING...BUT EVEN THUS-FAR LESS
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE USUALLY-RELIABLE 4KM NSSL WRF DEPICT
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST. AS FOR ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT "ZERO"
GIVEN THAT ELEVATED CAPE IS AVERAGING UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT IS
ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR. BARRING ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT THAT
GENERATES A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING "SHOULD" BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE.

DAYTIME HOURS (GENERALLY 7AM-7PM): OBVIOUSLY WHATEVER DOES (OR
DOESN`T) GET GOING DURING THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WILL AFFECT WHAT
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY HAS IN STORE. AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT HAND...HAVE ONLY 20-30 POPS GOING FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING (HIGHEST EAST)...WITH THESE FAIRLY
LOW CHANCES THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATER IN
THE MORNING IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST-TO-EAST AS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
MOVES IN ALOFT. OF COURSE...THESE POPS MAY NEED RAISED
CONSIDERABLY IN SOME AREAS IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOWS ITS HAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE CWA VOID OF SHOWER/STORM MENTION...WHILE LEAVING 20-30 POPS
GOING WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE. AS FOR ANY THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WHILE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT MAINLY IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THINK
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY FEATURE A LULL IN STRONG-
SEVERE STORM PROSPECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. BY LATE IN THE DAY HOWEVER...A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES
MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA COULD POTENTIALLY FIND THEMSELVES
ON THE FRINGES OF AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
THAT SHOULD "MAINLY" MISS THE CWA JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING 20-30 POPS ONLY
SOUTHEAST OF A GENEVA-PLAINVILLE LINE...OR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
1/4 OF THE CWA. WITH INSTABILITY VALUES LIKELY UPWARDS OF 2000
J/KG AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING INTO AT
LEAST THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THIS POTENTIALLY BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
COULD EASILY PRODUCE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. AGREE
WITH SPC THOUGH IN KEEPING SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA ONLY IN A
MARGINAL RISK ZONE...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOCUSED FARTHER
EAST...DEEPER INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. SPEAKING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...FOR THOSE NOT BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION
TODAY...IT IS CLEARLY THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS IT STEADILY
INVADES THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...ITS PASSAGE MARKED BY A FEW HOURS OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS
SUSTAINED AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT TRULY
A "COOL" DAY BY ANY MEANS...HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MOST OF THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 RISING HIGHER INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND EVEN MID
90S IN THE MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA WHERE THE FRONT REACHES LAST.
IN FACT...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
OR JUST OVER 100 IN THE MITCHELL/OSBORNE COUNTIES AREA...WHICH
ALTHOUGH A TOUCH SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA DOES AT LEAST
NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL INVADE THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 40S IN SOME
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHILE 60S HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT: (GENERALLY 7PM-7AM WEDNESDAY): BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS
AND BEYOND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
SHOWER/STORM-FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST
IN CASE SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGERS OR DEVELOPS IN THAT
AREA. IN THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE...THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DECREASES AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ZONE STALLS OUT VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT AS IT BECOMES MORE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS (SUCH AS THE 6Z NAM)
SUGGEST THAT EVEN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN KS SHOULD BE VOID OF
CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...IT COULD BE A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND
THUS HAVE OPTED TO JUST BROAD-BRUSH A LOW POP THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LATE-NIGHT PERIOD...BUT ONLY WITHIN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
ROOKS/OSBORNE/MITCHELL. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...WOULD BE RATHER SURPRISED IF ANY LEGITIMATE SEVERE
THREAT EXISTED BEYOND MIDNIGHT OR SO. MEANWHILE...FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA THAT SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS/STORMS
TONIGHT...A SEASONABLY COOL AND LESS-HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE. IN
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT NORTH BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING 5-8
MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE
LOW TEMPS AIMED FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S THROUGH ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.
THIS REPRESENTS A MINOR...GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREE DOWNWARD NUDGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...BUT RAISED
THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS IT IS DIFFICULT
TO REALLY TANK DEWPOINTS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER MORE PLEASANT DAYS OF THE WEEK
WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER BEHIND THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP TO AROUND NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH OUR TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE FIRST SLIGHT POPS WORKING BACK
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCE IS
VERY SLIGHT AND WAS ONLY HINTED AT IN A FEW MODELS. AFTER HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE
CLIMBING BACK UP ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
THE WEST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST GIVING US
A TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED...WE WILL STILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE AND CAPABLE OF CATCHING RIDGE RUNNING SHORT WAVES AND
POSSIBLE MCS EVENTS. FORECAST MODELS STRUGGLE WITH ACCURATELY
DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO OUT
AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOW. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY BIG SYSTEMS
COMING THROUGH AND THUS WILL JUST CARRY THE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT POPS
IN PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED WHEN A FEW MODELS POSSIBLY BRING WEAK
TROUGHS THROUGH OUR AREA. OVERALL...THIS IS A PRETTY NORMAL PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT RATHER NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...A PASSING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINAL AREAS AS OF MIDDAY.
EXPECTING THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.
NOT EXPECTING THE MVFR BASES AT KGRI AS OF 17Z TO STICK AROUND
LONG. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED...REMAINING
NORTHERLY. AS THE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...POTENTIAL
WILL BE THERE FOR TO BE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 281205
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WELL AS IT TURNED OUT...AND AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE ACTUAL
AMOUNT OF SHOWER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING WAS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN "NOTHING" AND THE
"WIDESPREAD" ACTIVITY SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT TERM MODELS. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS REMAINED DRY
THUS FAR...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS
AFFECTING THE HAMILTON/POLK/YORK COUNTY AREA IN THE EAST. OTHER
THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF 60 PERCENT "LIKELY" POPS FOR THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN THE POLK COUNTY AREA...KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING...WHILE MAINTAINING THE
GRADUAL WEST-TO-EAST DECREASE IN HAVING ANY PRECIP CHANCE
WHATSOEVER. DESPITE DECENT ELEVATED CAPE...NO STORMS THUS FAR HAVE
THREATENED SEVERE LEVELS...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY BECOMING
MORE UNLIKELY THAT THEY WILL...WILL HANG ONTO THE MARGINALLY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO PRODUCT FOR THE TIME BEING JUST IN
CASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MESSAGE/HIGHLIGHT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL INVASION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MORE-NOTICEABLY DRIER/LESS-HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE MUCH-MORE UNCERTAIN
ELEMENT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS (AND FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ONLY THE
NEXT 6-9 HOURS) INVOLVES HOW MUCH (HOW LITTLE?) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...AND WHETHER AT
LEAST A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE YET THIS
MORNING...AND ALSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED SURFACE COLD NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA.

STARTING WITH A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW:
AS OF THIS WRITING AT 240 AM...LITERALLY THE ENTIRE CWA STILL HAS
REMAINED VOID OF ALL CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...DESPITE
THE OVER-AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTION OF VARIOUS MODELS THAT "SOMETHING"
SHOULD HAVE FORMED BY NOW. AS TOUCHED ON IN THE 1250 AM UPDATE
DISCUSSION...LIKELY THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTORS THUS FAR HAVE
BEEN A COMBINATION OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING EVIDENCED BY
700MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...ALONG WITH A LACK OF LARGER SCALE
CONVERGENCE/FORCING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB HAS ALLOWED A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THUS FAR TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE CWA. ALL THIS BEING SAID...LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS COULD FINALLY
START FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. IN ADDITION...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT AT LEAST AS SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (ACCAS) IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...POSSIBLY INDICATIVE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WELL- REMOVED FROM
THE ONGOING NORTHERN NEB CONVECTION. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW CHURNING OVER NORTHEAST MT...WITH THE LOCAL AREA RESIDING
ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRIMARY FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME
THOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS OF A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE WORKING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW- ALOFT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW AND A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE OK AREA TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
ENTIRE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NEB. AS A RESULT...BREEZES THUS FAR TONIGHT HAVE
AVERAGED AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20+ MPH FROM
THE SOUTH...HELPING KEEP TEMPS WELL UP A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 80 THUS FAR. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A MODEST DROP SHOULD STILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO DROP BELOW THE MID-70S FOR ACTUAL LOWS THIS MORNING.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST...

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH AROUND 7AM): ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) REMAIN UNDER "LIKELY" LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AM
EXPECTING AT LEAST "SOME" SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE
WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA OVER THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FORCING STARTS TO
IMPINGE ON THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COULD SEE ONGOING
NORTHERN NEB ACTIVITY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
ALSO SEE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
SEASONABLY STRONG 45-55KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH 20-40 POPS CWA-WIDE THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HIGHEST IN THE NORTH. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO
BE A HINDRANCE TO THINGS GETTING GOING...BUT EVEN THUS-FAR LESS
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE USUALLY-RELIABLE 4KM NSSL WRF DEPICT
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST. AS FOR ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT "ZERO"
GIVEN THAT ELEVATED CAPE IS AVERAGING UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT IS
ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR. BARRING ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT THAT
GENERATES A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING "SHOULD" BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE.

DAYTIME HOURS (GENERALLY 7AM-7PM): OBVIOUSLY WHATEVER DOES (OR
DOESN`T) GET GOING DURING THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WILL AFFECT WHAT
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY HAS IN STORE. AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT HAND...HAVE ONLY 20-30 POPS GOING FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING (HIGHEST EAST)...WITH THESE FAIRLY
LOW CHANCES THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATER IN
THE MORNING IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST-TO-EAST AS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
MOVES IN ALOFT. OF COURSE...THESE POPS MAY NEED RAISED
CONSIDERABLY IN SOME AREAS IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOWS ITS HAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE CWA VOID OF SHOWER/STORM MENTION...WHILE LEAVING 20-30 POPS
GOING WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE. AS FOR ANY THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WHILE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT MAINLY IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THINK
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY FEATURE A LULL IN STRONG-
SEVERE STORM PROSPECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. BY LATE IN THE DAY HOWEVER...A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES
MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA COULD POTENTIALLY FIND THEMSELVES
ON THE FRINGES OF AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
THAT SHOULD "MAINLY" MISS THE CWA JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING 20-30 POPS ONLY
SOUTHEAST OF A GENEVA-PLAINVILLE LINE...OR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
1/4 OF THE CWA. WITH INSTABILITY VALUES LIKELY UPWARDS OF 2000
J/KG AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING INTO AT
LEAST THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THIS POTENTIALLY BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
COULD EASILY PRODUCE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. AGREE
WITH SPC THOUGH IN KEEPING SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA ONLY IN A
MARGINAL RISK ZONE...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOCUSED FARTHER
EAST...DEEPER INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. SPEAKING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...FOR THOSE NOT BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION
TODAY...IT IS CLEARLY THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS IT STEADILY
INVADES THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...ITS PASSAGE MARKED BY A FEW HOURS OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS
SUSTAINED AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT TRULY
A "COOL" DAY BY ANY MEANS...HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MOST OF THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 RISING HIGHER INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND EVEN MID
90S IN THE MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA WHERE THE FRONT REACHES LAST.
IN FACT...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
OR JUST OVER 100 IN THE MITCHELL/OSBORNE COUNTIES AREA...WHICH
ALTHOUGH A TOUCH SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA DOES AT LEAST
NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL INVADE THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 40S IN SOME
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHILE 60S HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT: (GENERALLY 7PM-7AM WEDNESDAY): BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS
AND BEYOND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
SHOWER/STORM-FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST
IN CASE SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGERS OR DEVELOPS IN THAT
AREA. IN THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE...THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DECREASES AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ZONE STALLS OUT VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT AS IT BECOMES MORE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS (SUCH AS THE 6Z NAM)
SUGGEST THAT EVEN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN KS SHOULD BE VOID OF
CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...IT COULD BE A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND
THUS HAVE OPTED TO JUST BROAD-BRUSH A LOW POP THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LATE-NIGHT PERIOD...BUT ONLY WITHIN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
ROOKS/OSBORNE/MITCHELL. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...WOULD BE RATHER SURPRISED IF ANY LEGITIMATE SEVERE
THREAT EXISTED BEYOND MIDNIGHT OR SO. MEANWHILE...FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA THAT SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS/STORMS
TONIGHT...A SEASONABLY COOL AND LESS-HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE. IN
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT NORTH BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING 5-8
MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE
LOW TEMPS AIMED FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S THROUGH ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.
THIS REPRESENTS A MINOR...GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREE DOWNWARD NUDGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...BUT RAISED
THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS IT IS DIFFICULT
TO REALLY TANK DEWPOINTS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER MORE PLEASANT DAYS OF THE WEEK
WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER BEHIND THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP TO AROUND NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH OUR TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE FIRST SLIGHT POPS WORKING BACK
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCE IS
VERY SLIGHT AND WAS ONLY HINTED AT IN A FEW MODELS. AFTER HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE
CLIMBING BACK UP ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
THE WEST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST GIVING US
A TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED...WE WILL STILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE AND CAPABLE OF CATCHING RIDGE RUNNING SHORT WAVES AND
POSSIBLE MCS EVENTS. FORECAST MODELS STRUGGLE WITH ACCURATELY
DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO OUT
AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOW. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY BIG SYSTEMS
COMING THROUGH AND THUS WILL JUST CARRY THE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT POPS
IN PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED WHEN A FEW MODELS POSSIBLY BRING WEAK
TROUGHS THROUGH OUR AREA. OVERALL...THIS IS A PRETTY NORMAL PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT RATHER NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE STILL A FEW CAVEATS AND/OR ISSUES
TO CONSIDER DURING THE PERIOD. STARTING OFF WITH THESE FIRST 2-4
HOURS OR SO...THE TWO PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO THE CONTINUANCE OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) STRONG ENOUGH FOR TAF MENTION AT KGRI. AS FOR
THE STORM CHANCES...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY FOCUS BEFORE 16Z...AND
GIVEN THE VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OUT THERE AT THIS TIME WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION FOR NOW. ON
ANOTHER NOTE...WILL MAINTAIN 1 MORE HOUR OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) MENTION AT KGRI...BUT LLWS MAGNITUDE SHOULD QUICKLY DROP
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THEREAFTER. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
PASSAGE OF SEASONABLY-STRONG COLD FRONT (BY JULY STANDARDS)...AS
THE LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITION RATHER
ABRUPTLY TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH GUST
POTENTIAL INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE. THIS NORTHERLY DIRECTION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NEAR/BELOW 10KT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE NIGHT. LASTLY...THERE APPEARS
TO BE AT LEAST A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGH-END
MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CEILING DURING THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN OPTIMISTICALLY TOWARD THE
LOWER-END VFR SCENARIO...BUT THIS WILL NEED MONITORED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 281205
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WELL AS IT TURNED OUT...AND AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE ACTUAL
AMOUNT OF SHOWER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING WAS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN "NOTHING" AND THE
"WIDESPREAD" ACTIVITY SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT TERM MODELS. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS REMAINED DRY
THUS FAR...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS
AFFECTING THE HAMILTON/POLK/YORK COUNTY AREA IN THE EAST. OTHER
THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF 60 PERCENT "LIKELY" POPS FOR THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN THE POLK COUNTY AREA...KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING...WHILE MAINTAINING THE
GRADUAL WEST-TO-EAST DECREASE IN HAVING ANY PRECIP CHANCE
WHATSOEVER. DESPITE DECENT ELEVATED CAPE...NO STORMS THUS FAR HAVE
THREATENED SEVERE LEVELS...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY BECOMING
MORE UNLIKELY THAT THEY WILL...WILL HANG ONTO THE MARGINALLY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO PRODUCT FOR THE TIME BEING JUST IN
CASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MESSAGE/HIGHLIGHT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL INVASION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MORE-NOTICEABLY DRIER/LESS-HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE MUCH-MORE UNCERTAIN
ELEMENT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS (AND FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ONLY THE
NEXT 6-9 HOURS) INVOLVES HOW MUCH (HOW LITTLE?) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...AND WHETHER AT
LEAST A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE YET THIS
MORNING...AND ALSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED SURFACE COLD NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA.

STARTING WITH A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW:
AS OF THIS WRITING AT 240 AM...LITERALLY THE ENTIRE CWA STILL HAS
REMAINED VOID OF ALL CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...DESPITE
THE OVER-AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTION OF VARIOUS MODELS THAT "SOMETHING"
SHOULD HAVE FORMED BY NOW. AS TOUCHED ON IN THE 1250 AM UPDATE
DISCUSSION...LIKELY THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTORS THUS FAR HAVE
BEEN A COMBINATION OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING EVIDENCED BY
700MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...ALONG WITH A LACK OF LARGER SCALE
CONVERGENCE/FORCING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB HAS ALLOWED A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THUS FAR TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE CWA. ALL THIS BEING SAID...LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS COULD FINALLY
START FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. IN ADDITION...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT AT LEAST AS SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (ACCAS) IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...POSSIBLY INDICATIVE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WELL- REMOVED FROM
THE ONGOING NORTHERN NEB CONVECTION. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW CHURNING OVER NORTHEAST MT...WITH THE LOCAL AREA RESIDING
ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRIMARY FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME
THOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS OF A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE WORKING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW- ALOFT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW AND A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE OK AREA TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
ENTIRE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NEB. AS A RESULT...BREEZES THUS FAR TONIGHT HAVE
AVERAGED AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20+ MPH FROM
THE SOUTH...HELPING KEEP TEMPS WELL UP A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 80 THUS FAR. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A MODEST DROP SHOULD STILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO DROP BELOW THE MID-70S FOR ACTUAL LOWS THIS MORNING.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST...

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH AROUND 7AM): ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) REMAIN UNDER "LIKELY" LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AM
EXPECTING AT LEAST "SOME" SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE
WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA OVER THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FORCING STARTS TO
IMPINGE ON THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COULD SEE ONGOING
NORTHERN NEB ACTIVITY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
ALSO SEE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
SEASONABLY STRONG 45-55KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH 20-40 POPS CWA-WIDE THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HIGHEST IN THE NORTH. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO
BE A HINDRANCE TO THINGS GETTING GOING...BUT EVEN THUS-FAR LESS
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE USUALLY-RELIABLE 4KM NSSL WRF DEPICT
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST. AS FOR ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT "ZERO"
GIVEN THAT ELEVATED CAPE IS AVERAGING UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT IS
ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR. BARRING ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT THAT
GENERATES A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING "SHOULD" BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE.

DAYTIME HOURS (GENERALLY 7AM-7PM): OBVIOUSLY WHATEVER DOES (OR
DOESN`T) GET GOING DURING THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WILL AFFECT WHAT
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY HAS IN STORE. AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT HAND...HAVE ONLY 20-30 POPS GOING FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING (HIGHEST EAST)...WITH THESE FAIRLY
LOW CHANCES THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATER IN
THE MORNING IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST-TO-EAST AS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
MOVES IN ALOFT. OF COURSE...THESE POPS MAY NEED RAISED
CONSIDERABLY IN SOME AREAS IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOWS ITS HAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE CWA VOID OF SHOWER/STORM MENTION...WHILE LEAVING 20-30 POPS
GOING WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE. AS FOR ANY THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WHILE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT MAINLY IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THINK
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY FEATURE A LULL IN STRONG-
SEVERE STORM PROSPECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. BY LATE IN THE DAY HOWEVER...A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES
MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA COULD POTENTIALLY FIND THEMSELVES
ON THE FRINGES OF AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
THAT SHOULD "MAINLY" MISS THE CWA JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING 20-30 POPS ONLY
SOUTHEAST OF A GENEVA-PLAINVILLE LINE...OR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
1/4 OF THE CWA. WITH INSTABILITY VALUES LIKELY UPWARDS OF 2000
J/KG AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING INTO AT
LEAST THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THIS POTENTIALLY BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
COULD EASILY PRODUCE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. AGREE
WITH SPC THOUGH IN KEEPING SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA ONLY IN A
MARGINAL RISK ZONE...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOCUSED FARTHER
EAST...DEEPER INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. SPEAKING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...FOR THOSE NOT BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION
TODAY...IT IS CLEARLY THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS IT STEADILY
INVADES THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...ITS PASSAGE MARKED BY A FEW HOURS OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS
SUSTAINED AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT TRULY
A "COOL" DAY BY ANY MEANS...HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MOST OF THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 RISING HIGHER INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND EVEN MID
90S IN THE MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA WHERE THE FRONT REACHES LAST.
IN FACT...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
OR JUST OVER 100 IN THE MITCHELL/OSBORNE COUNTIES AREA...WHICH
ALTHOUGH A TOUCH SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA DOES AT LEAST
NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL INVADE THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 40S IN SOME
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHILE 60S HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT: (GENERALLY 7PM-7AM WEDNESDAY): BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS
AND BEYOND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
SHOWER/STORM-FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST
IN CASE SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGERS OR DEVELOPS IN THAT
AREA. IN THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE...THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DECREASES AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ZONE STALLS OUT VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT AS IT BECOMES MORE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS (SUCH AS THE 6Z NAM)
SUGGEST THAT EVEN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN KS SHOULD BE VOID OF
CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...IT COULD BE A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND
THUS HAVE OPTED TO JUST BROAD-BRUSH A LOW POP THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LATE-NIGHT PERIOD...BUT ONLY WITHIN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
ROOKS/OSBORNE/MITCHELL. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...WOULD BE RATHER SURPRISED IF ANY LEGITIMATE SEVERE
THREAT EXISTED BEYOND MIDNIGHT OR SO. MEANWHILE...FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA THAT SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS/STORMS
TONIGHT...A SEASONABLY COOL AND LESS-HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE. IN
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT NORTH BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING 5-8
MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE
LOW TEMPS AIMED FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S THROUGH ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.
THIS REPRESENTS A MINOR...GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREE DOWNWARD NUDGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...BUT RAISED
THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS IT IS DIFFICULT
TO REALLY TANK DEWPOINTS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER MORE PLEASANT DAYS OF THE WEEK
WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER BEHIND THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP TO AROUND NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH OUR TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE FIRST SLIGHT POPS WORKING BACK
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCE IS
VERY SLIGHT AND WAS ONLY HINTED AT IN A FEW MODELS. AFTER HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE
CLIMBING BACK UP ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
THE WEST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST GIVING US
A TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED...WE WILL STILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE AND CAPABLE OF CATCHING RIDGE RUNNING SHORT WAVES AND
POSSIBLE MCS EVENTS. FORECAST MODELS STRUGGLE WITH ACCURATELY
DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO OUT
AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOW. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY BIG SYSTEMS
COMING THROUGH AND THUS WILL JUST CARRY THE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT POPS
IN PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED WHEN A FEW MODELS POSSIBLY BRING WEAK
TROUGHS THROUGH OUR AREA. OVERALL...THIS IS A PRETTY NORMAL PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT RATHER NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE STILL A FEW CAVEATS AND/OR ISSUES
TO CONSIDER DURING THE PERIOD. STARTING OFF WITH THESE FIRST 2-4
HOURS OR SO...THE TWO PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO THE CONTINUANCE OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) STRONG ENOUGH FOR TAF MENTION AT KGRI. AS FOR
THE STORM CHANCES...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY FOCUS BEFORE 16Z...AND
GIVEN THE VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OUT THERE AT THIS TIME WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION FOR NOW. ON
ANOTHER NOTE...WILL MAINTAIN 1 MORE HOUR OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) MENTION AT KGRI...BUT LLWS MAGNITUDE SHOULD QUICKLY DROP
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THEREAFTER. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
PASSAGE OF SEASONABLY-STRONG COLD FRONT (BY JULY STANDARDS)...AS
THE LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITION RATHER
ABRUPTLY TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH GUST
POTENTIAL INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE. THIS NORTHERLY DIRECTION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NEAR/BELOW 10KT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE NIGHT. LASTLY...THERE APPEARS
TO BE AT LEAST A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGH-END
MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CEILING DURING THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN OPTIMISTICALLY TOWARD THE
LOWER-END VFR SCENARIO...BUT THIS WILL NEED MONITORED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 281205
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WELL AS IT TURNED OUT...AND AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE ACTUAL
AMOUNT OF SHOWER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING WAS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN "NOTHING" AND THE
"WIDESPREAD" ACTIVITY SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT TERM MODELS. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS REMAINED DRY
THUS FAR...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS
AFFECTING THE HAMILTON/POLK/YORK COUNTY AREA IN THE EAST. OTHER
THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF 60 PERCENT "LIKELY" POPS FOR THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN THE POLK COUNTY AREA...KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING...WHILE MAINTAINING THE
GRADUAL WEST-TO-EAST DECREASE IN HAVING ANY PRECIP CHANCE
WHATSOEVER. DESPITE DECENT ELEVATED CAPE...NO STORMS THUS FAR HAVE
THREATENED SEVERE LEVELS...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY BECOMING
MORE UNLIKELY THAT THEY WILL...WILL HANG ONTO THE MARGINALLY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO PRODUCT FOR THE TIME BEING JUST IN
CASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MESSAGE/HIGHLIGHT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL INVASION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MORE-NOTICEABLY DRIER/LESS-HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE MUCH-MORE UNCERTAIN
ELEMENT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS (AND FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ONLY THE
NEXT 6-9 HOURS) INVOLVES HOW MUCH (HOW LITTLE?) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...AND WHETHER AT
LEAST A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE YET THIS
MORNING...AND ALSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED SURFACE COLD NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA.

STARTING WITH A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW:
AS OF THIS WRITING AT 240 AM...LITERALLY THE ENTIRE CWA STILL HAS
REMAINED VOID OF ALL CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...DESPITE
THE OVER-AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTION OF VARIOUS MODELS THAT "SOMETHING"
SHOULD HAVE FORMED BY NOW. AS TOUCHED ON IN THE 1250 AM UPDATE
DISCUSSION...LIKELY THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTORS THUS FAR HAVE
BEEN A COMBINATION OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING EVIDENCED BY
700MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...ALONG WITH A LACK OF LARGER SCALE
CONVERGENCE/FORCING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB HAS ALLOWED A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THUS FAR TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE CWA. ALL THIS BEING SAID...LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS COULD FINALLY
START FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. IN ADDITION...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT AT LEAST AS SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (ACCAS) IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...POSSIBLY INDICATIVE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WELL- REMOVED FROM
THE ONGOING NORTHERN NEB CONVECTION. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW CHURNING OVER NORTHEAST MT...WITH THE LOCAL AREA RESIDING
ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRIMARY FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME
THOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS OF A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE WORKING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW- ALOFT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW AND A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE OK AREA TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
ENTIRE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NEB. AS A RESULT...BREEZES THUS FAR TONIGHT HAVE
AVERAGED AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20+ MPH FROM
THE SOUTH...HELPING KEEP TEMPS WELL UP A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 80 THUS FAR. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A MODEST DROP SHOULD STILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO DROP BELOW THE MID-70S FOR ACTUAL LOWS THIS MORNING.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST...

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH AROUND 7AM): ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) REMAIN UNDER "LIKELY" LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AM
EXPECTING AT LEAST "SOME" SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE
WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA OVER THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FORCING STARTS TO
IMPINGE ON THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COULD SEE ONGOING
NORTHERN NEB ACTIVITY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
ALSO SEE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
SEASONABLY STRONG 45-55KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH 20-40 POPS CWA-WIDE THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HIGHEST IN THE NORTH. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO
BE A HINDRANCE TO THINGS GETTING GOING...BUT EVEN THUS-FAR LESS
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE USUALLY-RELIABLE 4KM NSSL WRF DEPICT
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST. AS FOR ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT "ZERO"
GIVEN THAT ELEVATED CAPE IS AVERAGING UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT IS
ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR. BARRING ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT THAT
GENERATES A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING "SHOULD" BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE.

DAYTIME HOURS (GENERALLY 7AM-7PM): OBVIOUSLY WHATEVER DOES (OR
DOESN`T) GET GOING DURING THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WILL AFFECT WHAT
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY HAS IN STORE. AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT HAND...HAVE ONLY 20-30 POPS GOING FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING (HIGHEST EAST)...WITH THESE FAIRLY
LOW CHANCES THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATER IN
THE MORNING IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST-TO-EAST AS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
MOVES IN ALOFT. OF COURSE...THESE POPS MAY NEED RAISED
CONSIDERABLY IN SOME AREAS IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOWS ITS HAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE CWA VOID OF SHOWER/STORM MENTION...WHILE LEAVING 20-30 POPS
GOING WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE. AS FOR ANY THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WHILE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT MAINLY IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THINK
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY FEATURE A LULL IN STRONG-
SEVERE STORM PROSPECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. BY LATE IN THE DAY HOWEVER...A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES
MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA COULD POTENTIALLY FIND THEMSELVES
ON THE FRINGES OF AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
THAT SHOULD "MAINLY" MISS THE CWA JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING 20-30 POPS ONLY
SOUTHEAST OF A GENEVA-PLAINVILLE LINE...OR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
1/4 OF THE CWA. WITH INSTABILITY VALUES LIKELY UPWARDS OF 2000
J/KG AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING INTO AT
LEAST THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THIS POTENTIALLY BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
COULD EASILY PRODUCE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. AGREE
WITH SPC THOUGH IN KEEPING SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA ONLY IN A
MARGINAL RISK ZONE...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOCUSED FARTHER
EAST...DEEPER INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. SPEAKING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...FOR THOSE NOT BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION
TODAY...IT IS CLEARLY THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS IT STEADILY
INVADES THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...ITS PASSAGE MARKED BY A FEW HOURS OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS
SUSTAINED AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT TRULY
A "COOL" DAY BY ANY MEANS...HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MOST OF THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 RISING HIGHER INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND EVEN MID
90S IN THE MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA WHERE THE FRONT REACHES LAST.
IN FACT...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
OR JUST OVER 100 IN THE MITCHELL/OSBORNE COUNTIES AREA...WHICH
ALTHOUGH A TOUCH SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA DOES AT LEAST
NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL INVADE THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 40S IN SOME
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHILE 60S HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT: (GENERALLY 7PM-7AM WEDNESDAY): BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS
AND BEYOND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
SHOWER/STORM-FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST
IN CASE SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGERS OR DEVELOPS IN THAT
AREA. IN THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE...THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DECREASES AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ZONE STALLS OUT VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT AS IT BECOMES MORE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS (SUCH AS THE 6Z NAM)
SUGGEST THAT EVEN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN KS SHOULD BE VOID OF
CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...IT COULD BE A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND
THUS HAVE OPTED TO JUST BROAD-BRUSH A LOW POP THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LATE-NIGHT PERIOD...BUT ONLY WITHIN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
ROOKS/OSBORNE/MITCHELL. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...WOULD BE RATHER SURPRISED IF ANY LEGITIMATE SEVERE
THREAT EXISTED BEYOND MIDNIGHT OR SO. MEANWHILE...FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA THAT SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS/STORMS
TONIGHT...A SEASONABLY COOL AND LESS-HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE. IN
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT NORTH BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING 5-8
MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE
LOW TEMPS AIMED FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S THROUGH ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.
THIS REPRESENTS A MINOR...GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREE DOWNWARD NUDGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...BUT RAISED
THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS IT IS DIFFICULT
TO REALLY TANK DEWPOINTS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER MORE PLEASANT DAYS OF THE WEEK
WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER BEHIND THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP TO AROUND NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH OUR TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE FIRST SLIGHT POPS WORKING BACK
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCE IS
VERY SLIGHT AND WAS ONLY HINTED AT IN A FEW MODELS. AFTER HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE
CLIMBING BACK UP ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
THE WEST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST GIVING US
A TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED...WE WILL STILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE AND CAPABLE OF CATCHING RIDGE RUNNING SHORT WAVES AND
POSSIBLE MCS EVENTS. FORECAST MODELS STRUGGLE WITH ACCURATELY
DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO OUT
AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOW. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY BIG SYSTEMS
COMING THROUGH AND THUS WILL JUST CARRY THE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT POPS
IN PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED WHEN A FEW MODELS POSSIBLY BRING WEAK
TROUGHS THROUGH OUR AREA. OVERALL...THIS IS A PRETTY NORMAL PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT RATHER NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE STILL A FEW CAVEATS AND/OR ISSUES
TO CONSIDER DURING THE PERIOD. STARTING OFF WITH THESE FIRST 2-4
HOURS OR SO...THE TWO PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO THE CONTINUANCE OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) STRONG ENOUGH FOR TAF MENTION AT KGRI. AS FOR
THE STORM CHANCES...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY FOCUS BEFORE 16Z...AND
GIVEN THE VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OUT THERE AT THIS TIME WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION FOR NOW. ON
ANOTHER NOTE...WILL MAINTAIN 1 MORE HOUR OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) MENTION AT KGRI...BUT LLWS MAGNITUDE SHOULD QUICKLY DROP
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THEREAFTER. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
PASSAGE OF SEASONABLY-STRONG COLD FRONT (BY JULY STANDARDS)...AS
THE LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITION RATHER
ABRUPTLY TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH GUST
POTENTIAL INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE. THIS NORTHERLY DIRECTION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NEAR/BELOW 10KT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE NIGHT. LASTLY...THERE APPEARS
TO BE AT LEAST A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGH-END
MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CEILING DURING THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN OPTIMISTICALLY TOWARD THE
LOWER-END VFR SCENARIO...BUT THIS WILL NEED MONITORED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 281205
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WELL AS IT TURNED OUT...AND AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE ACTUAL
AMOUNT OF SHOWER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING WAS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN "NOTHING" AND THE
"WIDESPREAD" ACTIVITY SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT TERM MODELS. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS REMAINED DRY
THUS FAR...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS
AFFECTING THE HAMILTON/POLK/YORK COUNTY AREA IN THE EAST. OTHER
THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF 60 PERCENT "LIKELY" POPS FOR THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN THE POLK COUNTY AREA...KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING...WHILE MAINTAINING THE
GRADUAL WEST-TO-EAST DECREASE IN HAVING ANY PRECIP CHANCE
WHATSOEVER. DESPITE DECENT ELEVATED CAPE...NO STORMS THUS FAR HAVE
THREATENED SEVERE LEVELS...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY BECOMING
MORE UNLIKELY THAT THEY WILL...WILL HANG ONTO THE MARGINALLY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO PRODUCT FOR THE TIME BEING JUST IN
CASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MESSAGE/HIGHLIGHT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL INVASION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MORE-NOTICEABLY DRIER/LESS-HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE MUCH-MORE UNCERTAIN
ELEMENT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS (AND FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ONLY THE
NEXT 6-9 HOURS) INVOLVES HOW MUCH (HOW LITTLE?) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...AND WHETHER AT
LEAST A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE YET THIS
MORNING...AND ALSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED SURFACE COLD NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA.

STARTING WITH A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW:
AS OF THIS WRITING AT 240 AM...LITERALLY THE ENTIRE CWA STILL HAS
REMAINED VOID OF ALL CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...DESPITE
THE OVER-AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTION OF VARIOUS MODELS THAT "SOMETHING"
SHOULD HAVE FORMED BY NOW. AS TOUCHED ON IN THE 1250 AM UPDATE
DISCUSSION...LIKELY THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTORS THUS FAR HAVE
BEEN A COMBINATION OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING EVIDENCED BY
700MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...ALONG WITH A LACK OF LARGER SCALE
CONVERGENCE/FORCING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB HAS ALLOWED A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THUS FAR TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE CWA. ALL THIS BEING SAID...LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS COULD FINALLY
START FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. IN ADDITION...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT AT LEAST AS SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (ACCAS) IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...POSSIBLY INDICATIVE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WELL- REMOVED FROM
THE ONGOING NORTHERN NEB CONVECTION. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW CHURNING OVER NORTHEAST MT...WITH THE LOCAL AREA RESIDING
ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRIMARY FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME
THOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS OF A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE WORKING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW- ALOFT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW AND A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE OK AREA TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
ENTIRE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NEB. AS A RESULT...BREEZES THUS FAR TONIGHT HAVE
AVERAGED AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20+ MPH FROM
THE SOUTH...HELPING KEEP TEMPS WELL UP A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 80 THUS FAR. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A MODEST DROP SHOULD STILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO DROP BELOW THE MID-70S FOR ACTUAL LOWS THIS MORNING.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST...

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH AROUND 7AM): ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) REMAIN UNDER "LIKELY" LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AM
EXPECTING AT LEAST "SOME" SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE
WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA OVER THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FORCING STARTS TO
IMPINGE ON THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COULD SEE ONGOING
NORTHERN NEB ACTIVITY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
ALSO SEE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
SEASONABLY STRONG 45-55KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH 20-40 POPS CWA-WIDE THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HIGHEST IN THE NORTH. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO
BE A HINDRANCE TO THINGS GETTING GOING...BUT EVEN THUS-FAR LESS
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE USUALLY-RELIABLE 4KM NSSL WRF DEPICT
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST. AS FOR ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT "ZERO"
GIVEN THAT ELEVATED CAPE IS AVERAGING UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT IS
ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR. BARRING ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT THAT
GENERATES A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING "SHOULD" BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE.

DAYTIME HOURS (GENERALLY 7AM-7PM): OBVIOUSLY WHATEVER DOES (OR
DOESN`T) GET GOING DURING THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WILL AFFECT WHAT
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY HAS IN STORE. AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT HAND...HAVE ONLY 20-30 POPS GOING FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING (HIGHEST EAST)...WITH THESE FAIRLY
LOW CHANCES THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATER IN
THE MORNING IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST-TO-EAST AS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
MOVES IN ALOFT. OF COURSE...THESE POPS MAY NEED RAISED
CONSIDERABLY IN SOME AREAS IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOWS ITS HAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE CWA VOID OF SHOWER/STORM MENTION...WHILE LEAVING 20-30 POPS
GOING WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE. AS FOR ANY THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WHILE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT MAINLY IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THINK
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY FEATURE A LULL IN STRONG-
SEVERE STORM PROSPECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. BY LATE IN THE DAY HOWEVER...A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES
MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA COULD POTENTIALLY FIND THEMSELVES
ON THE FRINGES OF AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
THAT SHOULD "MAINLY" MISS THE CWA JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING 20-30 POPS ONLY
SOUTHEAST OF A GENEVA-PLAINVILLE LINE...OR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
1/4 OF THE CWA. WITH INSTABILITY VALUES LIKELY UPWARDS OF 2000
J/KG AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING INTO AT
LEAST THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THIS POTENTIALLY BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
COULD EASILY PRODUCE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. AGREE
WITH SPC THOUGH IN KEEPING SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA ONLY IN A
MARGINAL RISK ZONE...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOCUSED FARTHER
EAST...DEEPER INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. SPEAKING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...FOR THOSE NOT BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION
TODAY...IT IS CLEARLY THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS IT STEADILY
INVADES THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...ITS PASSAGE MARKED BY A FEW HOURS OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS
SUSTAINED AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT TRULY
A "COOL" DAY BY ANY MEANS...HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MOST OF THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 RISING HIGHER INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND EVEN MID
90S IN THE MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA WHERE THE FRONT REACHES LAST.
IN FACT...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
OR JUST OVER 100 IN THE MITCHELL/OSBORNE COUNTIES AREA...WHICH
ALTHOUGH A TOUCH SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA DOES AT LEAST
NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL INVADE THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 40S IN SOME
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHILE 60S HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT: (GENERALLY 7PM-7AM WEDNESDAY): BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS
AND BEYOND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
SHOWER/STORM-FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST
IN CASE SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGERS OR DEVELOPS IN THAT
AREA. IN THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE...THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DECREASES AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ZONE STALLS OUT VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT AS IT BECOMES MORE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS (SUCH AS THE 6Z NAM)
SUGGEST THAT EVEN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN KS SHOULD BE VOID OF
CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...IT COULD BE A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND
THUS HAVE OPTED TO JUST BROAD-BRUSH A LOW POP THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LATE-NIGHT PERIOD...BUT ONLY WITHIN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
ROOKS/OSBORNE/MITCHELL. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...WOULD BE RATHER SURPRISED IF ANY LEGITIMATE SEVERE
THREAT EXISTED BEYOND MIDNIGHT OR SO. MEANWHILE...FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA THAT SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS/STORMS
TONIGHT...A SEASONABLY COOL AND LESS-HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE. IN
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT NORTH BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING 5-8
MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE
LOW TEMPS AIMED FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S THROUGH ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.
THIS REPRESENTS A MINOR...GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREE DOWNWARD NUDGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...BUT RAISED
THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS IT IS DIFFICULT
TO REALLY TANK DEWPOINTS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER MORE PLEASANT DAYS OF THE WEEK
WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER BEHIND THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP TO AROUND NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH OUR TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE FIRST SLIGHT POPS WORKING BACK
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCE IS
VERY SLIGHT AND WAS ONLY HINTED AT IN A FEW MODELS. AFTER HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE
CLIMBING BACK UP ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
THE WEST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST GIVING US
A TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED...WE WILL STILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE AND CAPABLE OF CATCHING RIDGE RUNNING SHORT WAVES AND
POSSIBLE MCS EVENTS. FORECAST MODELS STRUGGLE WITH ACCURATELY
DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO OUT
AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOW. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY BIG SYSTEMS
COMING THROUGH AND THUS WILL JUST CARRY THE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT POPS
IN PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED WHEN A FEW MODELS POSSIBLY BRING WEAK
TROUGHS THROUGH OUR AREA. OVERALL...THIS IS A PRETTY NORMAL PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT RATHER NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE STILL A FEW CAVEATS AND/OR ISSUES
TO CONSIDER DURING THE PERIOD. STARTING OFF WITH THESE FIRST 2-4
HOURS OR SO...THE TWO PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO THE CONTINUANCE OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) STRONG ENOUGH FOR TAF MENTION AT KGRI. AS FOR
THE STORM CHANCES...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY FOCUS BEFORE 16Z...AND
GIVEN THE VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OUT THERE AT THIS TIME WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION FOR NOW. ON
ANOTHER NOTE...WILL MAINTAIN 1 MORE HOUR OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) MENTION AT KGRI...BUT LLWS MAGNITUDE SHOULD QUICKLY DROP
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THEREAFTER. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
PASSAGE OF SEASONABLY-STRONG COLD FRONT (BY JULY STANDARDS)...AS
THE LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITION RATHER
ABRUPTLY TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH GUST
POTENTIAL INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE. THIS NORTHERLY DIRECTION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NEAR/BELOW 10KT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE NIGHT. LASTLY...THERE APPEARS
TO BE AT LEAST A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGH-END
MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CEILING DURING THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN OPTIMISTICALLY TOWARD THE
LOWER-END VFR SCENARIO...BUT THIS WILL NEED MONITORED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 281205
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WELL AS IT TURNED OUT...AND AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE ACTUAL
AMOUNT OF SHOWER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE NIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING WAS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN "NOTHING" AND THE
"WIDESPREAD" ACTIVITY SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT TERM MODELS. FOR THE
MOST PART THOUGH...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS REMAINED DRY
THUS FAR...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS
AFFECTING THE HAMILTON/POLK/YORK COUNTY AREA IN THE EAST. OTHER
THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF 60 PERCENT "LIKELY" POPS FOR THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN THE POLK COUNTY AREA...KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING...WHILE MAINTAINING THE
GRADUAL WEST-TO-EAST DECREASE IN HAVING ANY PRECIP CHANCE
WHATSOEVER. DESPITE DECENT ELEVATED CAPE...NO STORMS THUS FAR HAVE
THREATENED SEVERE LEVELS...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY BECOMING
MORE UNLIKELY THAT THEY WILL...WILL HANG ONTO THE MARGINALLY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO PRODUCT FOR THE TIME BEING JUST IN
CASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MESSAGE/HIGHLIGHT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL INVASION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MORE-NOTICEABLY DRIER/LESS-HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE MUCH-MORE UNCERTAIN
ELEMENT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS (AND FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ONLY THE
NEXT 6-9 HOURS) INVOLVES HOW MUCH (HOW LITTLE?) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...AND WHETHER AT
LEAST A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE YET THIS
MORNING...AND ALSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED SURFACE COLD NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA.

STARTING WITH A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW:
AS OF THIS WRITING AT 240 AM...LITERALLY THE ENTIRE CWA STILL HAS
REMAINED VOID OF ALL CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...DESPITE
THE OVER-AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTION OF VARIOUS MODELS THAT "SOMETHING"
SHOULD HAVE FORMED BY NOW. AS TOUCHED ON IN THE 1250 AM UPDATE
DISCUSSION...LIKELY THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTORS THUS FAR HAVE
BEEN A COMBINATION OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING EVIDENCED BY
700MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...ALONG WITH A LACK OF LARGER SCALE
CONVERGENCE/FORCING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB HAS ALLOWED A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THUS FAR TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE CWA. ALL THIS BEING SAID...LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS COULD FINALLY
START FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. IN ADDITION...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT AT LEAST AS SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (ACCAS) IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...POSSIBLY INDICATIVE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WELL- REMOVED FROM
THE ONGOING NORTHERN NEB CONVECTION. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW CHURNING OVER NORTHEAST MT...WITH THE LOCAL AREA RESIDING
ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRIMARY FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME
THOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS OF A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE WORKING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW- ALOFT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW AND A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE OK AREA TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
ENTIRE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NEB. AS A RESULT...BREEZES THUS FAR TONIGHT HAVE
AVERAGED AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20+ MPH FROM
THE SOUTH...HELPING KEEP TEMPS WELL UP A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 80 THUS FAR. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A MODEST DROP SHOULD STILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO DROP BELOW THE MID-70S FOR ACTUAL LOWS THIS MORNING.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST...

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH AROUND 7AM): ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) REMAIN UNDER "LIKELY" LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AM
EXPECTING AT LEAST "SOME" SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE
WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA OVER THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FORCING STARTS TO
IMPINGE ON THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COULD SEE ONGOING
NORTHERN NEB ACTIVITY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
ALSO SEE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
SEASONABLY STRONG 45-55KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH 20-40 POPS CWA-WIDE THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HIGHEST IN THE NORTH. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO
BE A HINDRANCE TO THINGS GETTING GOING...BUT EVEN THUS-FAR LESS
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE USUALLY-RELIABLE 4KM NSSL WRF DEPICT
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST. AS FOR ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT "ZERO"
GIVEN THAT ELEVATED CAPE IS AVERAGING UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT IS
ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR. BARRING ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT THAT
GENERATES A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING "SHOULD" BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE.

DAYTIME HOURS (GENERALLY 7AM-7PM): OBVIOUSLY WHATEVER DOES (OR
DOESN`T) GET GOING DURING THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WILL AFFECT WHAT
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY HAS IN STORE. AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT HAND...HAVE ONLY 20-30 POPS GOING FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING (HIGHEST EAST)...WITH THESE FAIRLY
LOW CHANCES THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATER IN
THE MORNING IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST-TO-EAST AS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
MOVES IN ALOFT. OF COURSE...THESE POPS MAY NEED RAISED
CONSIDERABLY IN SOME AREAS IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOWS ITS HAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE CWA VOID OF SHOWER/STORM MENTION...WHILE LEAVING 20-30 POPS
GOING WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE. AS FOR ANY THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WHILE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT MAINLY IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THINK
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY FEATURE A LULL IN STRONG-
SEVERE STORM PROSPECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. BY LATE IN THE DAY HOWEVER...A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES
MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA COULD POTENTIALLY FIND THEMSELVES
ON THE FRINGES OF AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
THAT SHOULD "MAINLY" MISS THE CWA JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING 20-30 POPS ONLY
SOUTHEAST OF A GENEVA-PLAINVILLE LINE...OR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
1/4 OF THE CWA. WITH INSTABILITY VALUES LIKELY UPWARDS OF 2000
J/KG AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING INTO AT
LEAST THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THIS POTENTIALLY BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
COULD EASILY PRODUCE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. AGREE
WITH SPC THOUGH IN KEEPING SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA ONLY IN A
MARGINAL RISK ZONE...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOCUSED FARTHER
EAST...DEEPER INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. SPEAKING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...FOR THOSE NOT BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION
TODAY...IT IS CLEARLY THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS IT STEADILY
INVADES THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...ITS PASSAGE MARKED BY A FEW HOURS OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS
SUSTAINED AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT TRULY
A "COOL" DAY BY ANY MEANS...HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MOST OF THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 RISING HIGHER INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND EVEN MID
90S IN THE MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA WHERE THE FRONT REACHES LAST.
IN FACT...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
OR JUST OVER 100 IN THE MITCHELL/OSBORNE COUNTIES AREA...WHICH
ALTHOUGH A TOUCH SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA DOES AT LEAST
NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL INVADE THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 40S IN SOME
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHILE 60S HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT: (GENERALLY 7PM-7AM WEDNESDAY): BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS
AND BEYOND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
SHOWER/STORM-FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST
IN CASE SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGERS OR DEVELOPS IN THAT
AREA. IN THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE...THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DECREASES AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ZONE STALLS OUT VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT AS IT BECOMES MORE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS (SUCH AS THE 6Z NAM)
SUGGEST THAT EVEN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN KS SHOULD BE VOID OF
CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...IT COULD BE A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND
THUS HAVE OPTED TO JUST BROAD-BRUSH A LOW POP THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LATE-NIGHT PERIOD...BUT ONLY WITHIN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
ROOKS/OSBORNE/MITCHELL. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...WOULD BE RATHER SURPRISED IF ANY LEGITIMATE SEVERE
THREAT EXISTED BEYOND MIDNIGHT OR SO. MEANWHILE...FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA THAT SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS/STORMS
TONIGHT...A SEASONABLY COOL AND LESS-HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE. IN
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT NORTH BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING 5-8
MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE
LOW TEMPS AIMED FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S THROUGH ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.
THIS REPRESENTS A MINOR...GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREE DOWNWARD NUDGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...BUT RAISED
THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS IT IS DIFFICULT
TO REALLY TANK DEWPOINTS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER MORE PLEASANT DAYS OF THE WEEK
WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER BEHIND THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP TO AROUND NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH OUR TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE FIRST SLIGHT POPS WORKING BACK
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCE IS
VERY SLIGHT AND WAS ONLY HINTED AT IN A FEW MODELS. AFTER HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE
CLIMBING BACK UP ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
THE WEST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST GIVING US
A TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED...WE WILL STILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE AND CAPABLE OF CATCHING RIDGE RUNNING SHORT WAVES AND
POSSIBLE MCS EVENTS. FORECAST MODELS STRUGGLE WITH ACCURATELY
DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO OUT
AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOW. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY BIG SYSTEMS
COMING THROUGH AND THUS WILL JUST CARRY THE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT POPS
IN PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED WHEN A FEW MODELS POSSIBLY BRING WEAK
TROUGHS THROUGH OUR AREA. OVERALL...THIS IS A PRETTY NORMAL PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT RATHER NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE STILL A FEW CAVEATS AND/OR ISSUES
TO CONSIDER DURING THE PERIOD. STARTING OFF WITH THESE FIRST 2-4
HOURS OR SO...THE TWO PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO THE CONTINUANCE OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) STRONG ENOUGH FOR TAF MENTION AT KGRI. AS FOR
THE STORM CHANCES...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY FOCUS BEFORE 16Z...AND
GIVEN THE VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE OUT THERE AT THIS TIME WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION FOR NOW. ON
ANOTHER NOTE...WILL MAINTAIN 1 MORE HOUR OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) MENTION AT KGRI...BUT LLWS MAGNITUDE SHOULD QUICKLY DROP
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS THEREAFTER. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
PASSAGE OF SEASONABLY-STRONG COLD FRONT (BY JULY STANDARDS)...AS
THE LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITION RATHER
ABRUPTLY TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH GUST
POTENTIAL INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE. THIS NORTHERLY DIRECTION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO NEAR/BELOW 10KT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE NIGHT. LASTLY...THERE APPEARS
TO BE AT LEAST A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGH-END
MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CEILING DURING THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN OPTIMISTICALLY TOWARD THE
LOWER-END VFR SCENARIO...BUT THIS WILL NEED MONITORED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 281115
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH WIND 320-360 INCREASINS TO
12-14G18-24KT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
CLIMATE...MASEK



000
FXUS63 KLBF 281115
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH WIND 320-360 INCREASINS TO
12-14G18-24KT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
CLIMATE...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 281115
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH WIND 320-360 INCREASINS TO
12-14G18-24KT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
CLIMATE...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 281115
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH WIND 320-360 INCREASINS TO
12-14G18-24KT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
CLIMATE...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 281115
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH WIND 320-360 INCREASINS TO
12-14G18-24KT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
CLIMATE...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 281115
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH WIND 320-360 INCREASINS TO
12-14G18-24KT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER
CLIMATE...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281113
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
613 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWING STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED TSRA CONTINUE MAINLY FROM NORTH OF KOMA TO NORTHWEST OF
KLNK. ACTIVITY MAY HANG AROUND INTO MID MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING
AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE QUESTION THEN
BECOMES HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATER AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE TSRA FOR
LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL JUST HAVE A PROB GROUP FOR -SHRA. FORECASTS
WILL NEED ADJUSTMENT LATER AS THINGS EVOLVE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AT KOFK BY AROUND MID DAY AND THEN FOR KOMA AND KLNK BY
EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 281113
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
613 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWING STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED TSRA CONTINUE MAINLY FROM NORTH OF KOMA TO NORTHWEST OF
KLNK. ACTIVITY MAY HANG AROUND INTO MID MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING
AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE QUESTION THEN
BECOMES HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATER AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE TSRA FOR
LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL JUST HAVE A PROB GROUP FOR -SHRA. FORECASTS
WILL NEED ADJUSTMENT LATER AS THINGS EVOLVE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AT KOFK BY AROUND MID DAY AND THEN FOR KOMA AND KLNK BY
EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KGID 280848
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MESSAGE/HIGHLIGHT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL INVASION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MORE-NOTICEABLY DRIER/LESS-HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE MUCH-MORE UNCERTAIN
ELEMENT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS (AND FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ONLY THE
NEXT 6-9 HOURS) INVOLVES HOW MUCH (HOW LITTLE?) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...AND WHETHER AT
LEAST A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE YET THIS
MORNING...AND ALSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED SURFACE COLD NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA.

STARTING WITH A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW:
AS OF THIS WRITING AT 240 AM...LITERALLY THE ENTIRE CWA STILL HAS
REMAINED VOID OF ALL CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...DESPITE
THE OVER-AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTION OF VARIOUS MODELS THAT "SOMETHING"
SHOULD HAVE FORMED BY NOW. AS TOUCHED ON IN THE 1250 AM UPDATE
DISCUSSION...LIKELY THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTORS THUS FAR HAVE
BEEN A COMBINATION OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING EVIDENCED BY
700MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...ALONG WITH A LACK OF LARGER SCALE
CONVERGENCE/FORCING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB HAS ALLOWED A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THUS FAR TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE CWA. ALL THIS BEING SAID...LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS COULD FINALLY
START FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. IN ADDITION...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT AT LEAST AS SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (ACCAS) IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...POSSIBLY INDICATIVE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WELL- REMOVED FROM
THE ONGOING NORTHERN NEB CONVECTION. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW CHURNING OVER NORTHEAST MT...WITH THE LOCAL AREA RESIDING
ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRIMARY FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME
THOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS OF A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE WORKING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW- ALOFT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW AND A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE OK AREA TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
ENTIRE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NEB. AS A RESULT...BREEZES THUS FAR TONIGHT HAVE
AVERAGED AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20+ MPH FROM
THE SOUTH...HELPING KEEP TEMPS WELL UP A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 80 THUS FAR. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A MODEST DROP SHOULD STILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO DROP BELOW THE MID-70S FOR ACTUAL LOWS THIS MORNING.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST...

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH AROUND 7AM): ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) REMAIN UNDER "LIKELY" LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AM
EXPECTING AT LEAST "SOME" SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE
WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA OVER THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FORCING STARTS TO
IMPINGE ON THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COULD SEE ONGOING
NORTHERN NEB ACTIVITY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
ALSO SEE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
SEASONABLY STRONG 45-55KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH 20-40 POPS CWA-WIDE THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HIGHEST IN THE NORTH. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO
BE A HINDRANCE TO THINGS GETTING GOING...BUT EVEN THUS-FAR LESS
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE USUALLY-RELIABLE 4KM NSSL WRF DEPICT
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST. AS FOR ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT "ZERO"
GIVEN THAT ELEVATED CAPE IS AVERAGING UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT IS
ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR. BARRING ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT THAT
GENERATES A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING "SHOULD" BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE.

DAYTIME HOURS (GENERALLY 7AM-7PM): OBVIOUSLY WHATEVER DOES (OR
DOESN`T) GET GOING DURING THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WILL AFFECT WHAT
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY HAS IN STORE. AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT HAND...HAVE ONLY 20-30 POPS GOING FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING (HIGHEST EAST)...WITH THESE FAIRLY
LOW CHANCES THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATER IN
THE MORNING IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST-TO-EAST AS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
MOVES IN ALOFT. OF COURSE...THESE POPS MAY NEED RAISED
CONSIDERABLY IN SOME AREAS IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOWS ITS HAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE CWA VOID OF SHOWER/STORM MENTION...WHILE LEAVING 20-30 POPS
GOING WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE. AS FOR ANY THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WHILE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT MAINLY IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THINK
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY FEATURE A LULL IN STRONG-
SEVERE STORM PROSPECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. BY LATE IN THE DAY HOWEVER...A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES
MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA COULD POTENTIALLY FIND THEMSELVES
ON THE FRINGES OF AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
THAT SHOULD "MAINLY" MISS THE CWA JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING 20-30 POPS ONLY
SOUTHEAST OF A GENEVA-PLAINVILLE LINE...OR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
1/4 OF THE CWA. WITH INSTABILITY VALUES LIKELY UPWARDS OF 2000
J/KG AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING INTO AT
LEAST THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THIS POTENTIALLY BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
COULD EASILY PRODUCE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. AGREE
WITH SPC THOUGH IN KEEPING SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA ONLY IN A
MARGINAL RISK ZONE...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOCUSED FARTHER
EAST...DEEPER INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. SPEAKING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...FOR THOSE NOT BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION
TODAY...IT IS CLEARLY THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS IT STEADILY
INVADES THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...ITS PASSAGE MARKED BY A FEW HOURS OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS
SUSTAINED AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT TRULY
A "COOL" DAY BY ANY MEANS...HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MOST OF THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 RISING HIGHER INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND EVEN MID
90S IN THE MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA WHERE THE FRONT REACHES LAST.
IN FACT...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
OR JUST OVER 100 IN THE MITCHELL/OSBORNE COUNTIES AREA...WHICH
ALTHOUGH A TOUCH SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA DOES AT LEAST
NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL INVADE THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 40S IN SOME
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHILE 60S HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT: (GENERALLY 7PM-7AM WEDNESDAY): BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS
AND BEYOND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
SHOWER/STORM-FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST
IN CASE SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGERS OR DEVELOPS IN THAT
AREA. IN THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE...THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DECREASES AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ZONE STALLS OUT VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT AS IT BECOMES MORE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS (SUCH AS THE 6Z NAM)
SUGGEST THAT EVEN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN KS SHOULD BE VOID OF
CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...IT COULD BE A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND
THUS HAVE OPTED TO JUST BROAD-BRUSH A LOW POP THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LATE-NIGHT PERIOD...BUT ONLY WITHIN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
ROOKS/OSBORNE/MITCHELL. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...WOULD BE RATHER SURPRISED IF ANY LEGITIMATE SEVERE
THREAT EXISTED BEYOND MIDNIGHT OR SO. MEANWHILE...FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA THAT SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS/STORMS
TONIGHT...A SEASONABLY COOL AND LESS-HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE. IN
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT NORTH BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING 5-8
MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE
LOW TEMPS AIMED FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S THROUGH ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.
THIS REPRESENTS A MINOR...GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREE DOWNWARD NUDGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...BUT RAISED
THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS IT IS DIFFICULT
TO REALLY TANK DEWPOINTS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER MORE PLEASANT DAYS OF THE WEEK
WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER BEHIND THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP TO AROUND NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH OUR TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE FIRST SLIGHT POPS WORKING BACK
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCE IS
VERY SLIGHT AND WAS ONLY HINTED AT IN A FEW MODELS. AFTER HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE
CLIMBING BACK UP ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
THE WEST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST GIVING US
A TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED...WE WILL STILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE AND CAPABLE OF CATCHING RIDGE RUNNING SHORT WAVES AND
POSSIBLE MCS EVENTS. FORECAST MODELS STRUGGLE WITH ACCURATELY
DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO OUT
AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOW. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY BIG SYSTEMS
COMING THROUGH AND THUS WILL JUST CARRY THE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT POPS
IN PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED WHEN A FEW MODELS POSSIBLY BRING WEAK
TROUGHS THROUGH OUR AREA. OVERALL...THIS IS A PRETTY NORMAL PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT RATHER NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE AT LEAST FOUR CAVEATS AND/OR
ISSUES TO CONSIDER DURING THE PERIOD. STARTING OFF WITH THESE
FIRST 6-9 HOURS OR SO...THE TWO PRIMARY ISSUES INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO THE CONTINUANCE
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) STRONG ENOUGH FOR TAF MENTION. AS
FOR THE STORM CHANCES...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE
08Z-13Z TIME FRAME...AND GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT
THE TERMINALS IS STILL RATHER SHAKY...HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION FOR NOW. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...AT LEAST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN/SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY MUCH HIGHER IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z...THANKS TO A ROUGHLY
30-35KT DIFFERENCE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND
ROUGHLY 1500 FT AGL...WHERE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THAT LEVEL
SHOULD MAX OUT ROUGHLY 45KT. GETTING INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LINGERING ROGUE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW FOR EVEN A
VCTS MENTION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE PASSAGE OF SEASONABLY-
STRONG COLD FRONT (BY JULY STANDARDS)...AS THE SOUTHERLY BREEZES
EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITION RATHER ABRUPTLY TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH GUST POTENTIAL INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE. THIS NORTHERLY DIRECTION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO
NEAR/BELOW 10KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LAST BUT NOT
LEAST...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CEILING DURING THE
DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
OPTIMISTICALLY TOWARD THE LOWER-END VFR SCENARIO...BUT THIS WILL
NEED MONITORED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 280848
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MESSAGE/HIGHLIGHT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL INVASION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MORE-NOTICEABLY DRIER/LESS-HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE MUCH-MORE UNCERTAIN
ELEMENT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS (AND FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ONLY THE
NEXT 6-9 HOURS) INVOLVES HOW MUCH (HOW LITTLE?) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...AND WHETHER AT
LEAST A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE YET THIS
MORNING...AND ALSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED SURFACE COLD NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA.

STARTING WITH A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW:
AS OF THIS WRITING AT 240 AM...LITERALLY THE ENTIRE CWA STILL HAS
REMAINED VOID OF ALL CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...DESPITE
THE OVER-AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTION OF VARIOUS MODELS THAT "SOMETHING"
SHOULD HAVE FORMED BY NOW. AS TOUCHED ON IN THE 1250 AM UPDATE
DISCUSSION...LIKELY THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTORS THUS FAR HAVE
BEEN A COMBINATION OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING EVIDENCED BY
700MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...ALONG WITH A LACK OF LARGER SCALE
CONVERGENCE/FORCING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB HAS ALLOWED A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THUS FAR TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE CWA. ALL THIS BEING SAID...LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS COULD FINALLY
START FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. IN ADDITION...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT AT LEAST AS SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (ACCAS) IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...POSSIBLY INDICATIVE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WELL- REMOVED FROM
THE ONGOING NORTHERN NEB CONVECTION. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW CHURNING OVER NORTHEAST MT...WITH THE LOCAL AREA RESIDING
ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRIMARY FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME
THOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS OF A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE WORKING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW- ALOFT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW AND A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE OK AREA TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
ENTIRE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NEB. AS A RESULT...BREEZES THUS FAR TONIGHT HAVE
AVERAGED AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20+ MPH FROM
THE SOUTH...HELPING KEEP TEMPS WELL UP A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 80 THUS FAR. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A MODEST DROP SHOULD STILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO DROP BELOW THE MID-70S FOR ACTUAL LOWS THIS MORNING.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST...

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH AROUND 7AM): ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) REMAIN UNDER "LIKELY" LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AM
EXPECTING AT LEAST "SOME" SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE
WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA OVER THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FORCING STARTS TO
IMPINGE ON THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COULD SEE ONGOING
NORTHERN NEB ACTIVITY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
ALSO SEE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
SEASONABLY STRONG 45-55KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH 20-40 POPS CWA-WIDE THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HIGHEST IN THE NORTH. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO
BE A HINDRANCE TO THINGS GETTING GOING...BUT EVEN THUS-FAR LESS
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE USUALLY-RELIABLE 4KM NSSL WRF DEPICT
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST. AS FOR ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT "ZERO"
GIVEN THAT ELEVATED CAPE IS AVERAGING UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT IS
ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR. BARRING ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT THAT
GENERATES A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING "SHOULD" BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE.

DAYTIME HOURS (GENERALLY 7AM-7PM): OBVIOUSLY WHATEVER DOES (OR
DOESN`T) GET GOING DURING THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WILL AFFECT WHAT
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY HAS IN STORE. AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT HAND...HAVE ONLY 20-30 POPS GOING FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING (HIGHEST EAST)...WITH THESE FAIRLY
LOW CHANCES THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATER IN
THE MORNING IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST-TO-EAST AS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
MOVES IN ALOFT. OF COURSE...THESE POPS MAY NEED RAISED
CONSIDERABLY IN SOME AREAS IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOWS ITS HAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE CWA VOID OF SHOWER/STORM MENTION...WHILE LEAVING 20-30 POPS
GOING WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE. AS FOR ANY THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WHILE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT MAINLY IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THINK
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY FEATURE A LULL IN STRONG-
SEVERE STORM PROSPECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. BY LATE IN THE DAY HOWEVER...A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES
MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA COULD POTENTIALLY FIND THEMSELVES
ON THE FRINGES OF AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
THAT SHOULD "MAINLY" MISS THE CWA JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING 20-30 POPS ONLY
SOUTHEAST OF A GENEVA-PLAINVILLE LINE...OR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
1/4 OF THE CWA. WITH INSTABILITY VALUES LIKELY UPWARDS OF 2000
J/KG AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING INTO AT
LEAST THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THIS POTENTIALLY BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
COULD EASILY PRODUCE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. AGREE
WITH SPC THOUGH IN KEEPING SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA ONLY IN A
MARGINAL RISK ZONE...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOCUSED FARTHER
EAST...DEEPER INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. SPEAKING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...FOR THOSE NOT BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION
TODAY...IT IS CLEARLY THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS IT STEADILY
INVADES THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...ITS PASSAGE MARKED BY A FEW HOURS OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS
SUSTAINED AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT TRULY
A "COOL" DAY BY ANY MEANS...HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MOST OF THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 RISING HIGHER INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND EVEN MID
90S IN THE MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA WHERE THE FRONT REACHES LAST.
IN FACT...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
OR JUST OVER 100 IN THE MITCHELL/OSBORNE COUNTIES AREA...WHICH
ALTHOUGH A TOUCH SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA DOES AT LEAST
NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL INVADE THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 40S IN SOME
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHILE 60S HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT: (GENERALLY 7PM-7AM WEDNESDAY): BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS
AND BEYOND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
SHOWER/STORM-FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST
IN CASE SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGERS OR DEVELOPS IN THAT
AREA. IN THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE...THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DECREASES AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ZONE STALLS OUT VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT AS IT BECOMES MORE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS (SUCH AS THE 6Z NAM)
SUGGEST THAT EVEN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN KS SHOULD BE VOID OF
CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...IT COULD BE A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND
THUS HAVE OPTED TO JUST BROAD-BRUSH A LOW POP THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LATE-NIGHT PERIOD...BUT ONLY WITHIN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
ROOKS/OSBORNE/MITCHELL. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...WOULD BE RATHER SURPRISED IF ANY LEGITIMATE SEVERE
THREAT EXISTED BEYOND MIDNIGHT OR SO. MEANWHILE...FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA THAT SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS/STORMS
TONIGHT...A SEASONABLY COOL AND LESS-HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE. IN
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT NORTH BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING 5-8
MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE
LOW TEMPS AIMED FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S THROUGH ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.
THIS REPRESENTS A MINOR...GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREE DOWNWARD NUDGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...BUT RAISED
THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS IT IS DIFFICULT
TO REALLY TANK DEWPOINTS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER MORE PLEASANT DAYS OF THE WEEK
WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER BEHIND THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP TO AROUND NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH OUR TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE FIRST SLIGHT POPS WORKING BACK
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCE IS
VERY SLIGHT AND WAS ONLY HINTED AT IN A FEW MODELS. AFTER HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE
CLIMBING BACK UP ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
THE WEST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST GIVING US
A TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED...WE WILL STILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE AND CAPABLE OF CATCHING RIDGE RUNNING SHORT WAVES AND
POSSIBLE MCS EVENTS. FORECAST MODELS STRUGGLE WITH ACCURATELY
DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO OUT
AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOW. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY BIG SYSTEMS
COMING THROUGH AND THUS WILL JUST CARRY THE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT POPS
IN PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED WHEN A FEW MODELS POSSIBLY BRING WEAK
TROUGHS THROUGH OUR AREA. OVERALL...THIS IS A PRETTY NORMAL PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT RATHER NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE AT LEAST FOUR CAVEATS AND/OR
ISSUES TO CONSIDER DURING THE PERIOD. STARTING OFF WITH THESE
FIRST 6-9 HOURS OR SO...THE TWO PRIMARY ISSUES INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO THE CONTINUANCE
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) STRONG ENOUGH FOR TAF MENTION. AS
FOR THE STORM CHANCES...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE
08Z-13Z TIME FRAME...AND GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT
THE TERMINALS IS STILL RATHER SHAKY...HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION FOR NOW. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...AT LEAST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN/SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY MUCH HIGHER IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z...THANKS TO A ROUGHLY
30-35KT DIFFERENCE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND
ROUGHLY 1500 FT AGL...WHERE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THAT LEVEL
SHOULD MAX OUT ROUGHLY 45KT. GETTING INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LINGERING ROGUE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW FOR EVEN A
VCTS MENTION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE PASSAGE OF SEASONABLY-
STRONG COLD FRONT (BY JULY STANDARDS)...AS THE SOUTHERLY BREEZES
EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITION RATHER ABRUPTLY TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH GUST POTENTIAL INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE. THIS NORTHERLY DIRECTION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO
NEAR/BELOW 10KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LAST BUT NOT
LEAST...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CEILING DURING THE
DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
OPTIMISTICALLY TOWARD THE LOWER-END VFR SCENARIO...BUT THIS WILL
NEED MONITORED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 280848
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MESSAGE/HIGHLIGHT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL INVASION OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MORE-NOTICEABLY DRIER/LESS-HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE MUCH-MORE UNCERTAIN
ELEMENT OF THESE NEXT 24 HOURS (AND FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ONLY THE
NEXT 6-9 HOURS) INVOLVES HOW MUCH (HOW LITTLE?) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE CWA...AND WHETHER AT
LEAST A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE YET THIS
MORNING...AND ALSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED SURFACE COLD NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA.

STARTING WITH A LOOK AT THE HERE AND NOW:
AS OF THIS WRITING AT 240 AM...LITERALLY THE ENTIRE CWA STILL HAS
REMAINED VOID OF ALL CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...DESPITE
THE OVER-AGGRESSIVE SUGGESTION OF VARIOUS MODELS THAT "SOMETHING"
SHOULD HAVE FORMED BY NOW. AS TOUCHED ON IN THE 1250 AM UPDATE
DISCUSSION...LIKELY THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTORS THUS FAR HAVE
BEEN A COMBINATION OF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING EVIDENCED BY
700MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...ALONG WITH A LACK OF LARGER SCALE
CONVERGENCE/FORCING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEB HAS ALLOWED A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THUS FAR TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS
OUTSIDE THE CWA. ALL THIS BEING SAID...LATEST FEW RADAR SCANS
SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS COULD FINALLY
START FLIRTING WITH THE NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. IN ADDITION...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THAT AT LEAST AS SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (ACCAS) IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...POSSIBLY INDICATIVE
OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WELL- REMOVED FROM
THE ONGOING NORTHERN NEB CONVECTION. IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW CHURNING OVER NORTHEAST MT...WITH THE LOCAL AREA RESIDING
ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRIMARY FEATURE. CLOSER TO HOME
THOUGH...THERE ARE HINTS OF A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE WORKING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW- ALOFT SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW AND A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE OK AREA TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
ENTIRE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN NEB. AS A RESULT...BREEZES THUS FAR TONIGHT HAVE
AVERAGED AT LEAST 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20+ MPH FROM
THE SOUTH...HELPING KEEP TEMPS WELL UP A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 80 THUS FAR. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A MODEST DROP SHOULD STILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE
TO DROP BELOW THE MID-70S FOR ACTUAL LOWS THIS MORNING.

NOW TURNING TO THE FORWARD-LOOKING FORECAST...

EARLY THIS MORNING (THROUGH AROUND 7AM): ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
(POPS) REMAIN UNDER "LIKELY" LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AM
EXPECTING AT LEAST "SOME" SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE
WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA OVER THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FORCING STARTS TO
IMPINGE ON THE CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...COULD SEE ONGOING
NORTHERN NEB ACTIVITY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND COULD
ALSO SEE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
SEASONABLY STRONG 45-55KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH 20-40 POPS CWA-WIDE THESE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HIGHEST IN THE NORTH. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO
BE A HINDRANCE TO THINGS GETTING GOING...BUT EVEN THUS-FAR LESS
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE USUALLY-RELIABLE 4KM NSSL WRF DEPICT
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST. AS FOR ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT "ZERO"
GIVEN THAT ELEVATED CAPE IS AVERAGING UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT IS
ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR. BARRING ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT THAT
GENERATES A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL...THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING "SHOULD" BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE.

DAYTIME HOURS (GENERALLY 7AM-7PM): OBVIOUSLY WHATEVER DOES (OR
DOESN`T) GET GOING DURING THESE NEXT 2-4 HOURS WILL AFFECT WHAT
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY HAS IN STORE. AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT HAND...HAVE ONLY 20-30 POPS GOING FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING (HIGHEST EAST)...WITH THESE FAIRLY
LOW CHANCES THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATER IN
THE MORNING IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST-TO-EAST AS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR GRADUALLY
MOVES IN ALOFT. OF COURSE...THESE POPS MAY NEED RAISED
CONSIDERABLY IN SOME AREAS IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOWS ITS HAND. BY THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE CWA VOID OF SHOWER/STORM MENTION...WHILE LEAVING 20-30 POPS
GOING WITHIN MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE. AS FOR ANY THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WHILE ISOLATED SMALL HAIL IS ALMOST
IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT MAINLY IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THINK
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY WILL PROBABLY FEATURE A LULL IN STRONG-
SEVERE STORM PROSPECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. BY LATE IN THE DAY HOWEVER...A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES
MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA COULD POTENTIALLY FIND THEMSELVES
ON THE FRINGES OF AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
THAT SHOULD "MAINLY" MISS THE CWA JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING AS WELL. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING 20-30 POPS ONLY
SOUTHEAST OF A GENEVA-PLAINVILLE LINE...OR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
1/4 OF THE CWA. WITH INSTABILITY VALUES LIKELY UPWARDS OF 2000
J/KG AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING INTO AT
LEAST THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THIS POTENTIALLY BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
COULD EASILY PRODUCE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. AGREE
WITH SPC THOUGH IN KEEPING SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA ONLY IN A
MARGINAL RISK ZONE...WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOCUSED FARTHER
EAST...DEEPER INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. SPEAKING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...FOR THOSE NOT BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION
TODAY...IT IS CLEARLY THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS IT STEADILY
INVADES THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY...ITS PASSAGE MARKED BY A FEW HOURS OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS
SUSTAINED AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT TRULY
A "COOL" DAY BY ANY MEANS...HAVE AIMED FOR HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MID 80S IN MOST OF THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA...WITH THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 RISING HIGHER INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...AND EVEN MID
90S IN THE MITCHELL COUNTY KS AREA WHERE THE FRONT REACHES LAST.
IN FACT...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
OR JUST OVER 100 IN THE MITCHELL/OSBORNE COUNTIES AREA...WHICH
ALTHOUGH A TOUCH SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA DOES AT LEAST
NECESSITATE A MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL INVADE THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER 40S IN SOME
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHILE 60S HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT: (GENERALLY 7PM-7AM WEDNESDAY): BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS
AND BEYOND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
SHOWER/STORM-FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST
IN CASE SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGERS OR DEVELOPS IN THAT
AREA. IN THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE...THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW DECREASES AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ZONE STALLS OUT VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT AS IT BECOMES MORE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS (SUCH AS THE 6Z NAM)
SUGGEST THAT EVEN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN KS SHOULD BE VOID OF
CONVECTION BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...IT COULD BE A VERY CLOSE CALL...AND
THUS HAVE OPTED TO JUST BROAD-BRUSH A LOW POP THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LATE-NIGHT PERIOD...BUT ONLY WITHIN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF
ROOKS/OSBORNE/MITCHELL. ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...WOULD BE RATHER SURPRISED IF ANY LEGITIMATE SEVERE
THREAT EXISTED BEYOND MIDNIGHT OR SO. MEANWHILE...FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA THAT SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS/STORMS
TONIGHT...A SEASONABLY COOL AND LESS-HUMID NIGHT IS IN STORE. IN
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT NORTH BREEZES GENERALLY ONLY AVERAGING 5-8
MPH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE
LOW TEMPS AIMED FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S THROUGH ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.
THIS REPRESENTS A MINOR...GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREE DOWNWARD NUDGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...BUT RAISED
THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS IT IS DIFFICULT
TO REALLY TANK DEWPOINTS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER MORE PLEASANT DAYS OF THE WEEK
WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER BEHIND THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WE WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP TO AROUND NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH OUR TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE FIRST SLIGHT POPS WORKING BACK
INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCE IS
VERY SLIGHT AND WAS ONLY HINTED AT IN A FEW MODELS. AFTER HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S WITH LOW DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE
CLIMBING BACK UP ON THURSDAY AND HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO
THE WEST AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST GIVING US
A TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED...WE WILL STILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE AND CAPABLE OF CATCHING RIDGE RUNNING SHORT WAVES AND
POSSIBLE MCS EVENTS. FORECAST MODELS STRUGGLE WITH ACCURATELY
DEPICTING NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO OUT
AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND IS STILL
LOW. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY BIG SYSTEMS
COMING THROUGH AND THUS WILL JUST CARRY THE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT POPS
IN PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED WHEN A FEW MODELS POSSIBLY BRING WEAK
TROUGHS THROUGH OUR AREA. OVERALL...THIS IS A PRETTY NORMAL PATTERN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WE CAN ALSO EXPECT RATHER NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE AT LEAST FOUR CAVEATS AND/OR
ISSUES TO CONSIDER DURING THE PERIOD. STARTING OFF WITH THESE
FIRST 6-9 HOURS OR SO...THE TWO PRIMARY ISSUES INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO THE CONTINUANCE
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) STRONG ENOUGH FOR TAF MENTION. AS
FOR THE STORM CHANCES...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE
08Z-13Z TIME FRAME...AND GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT
THE TERMINALS IS STILL RATHER SHAKY...HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION FOR NOW. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...AT LEAST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN/SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY MUCH HIGHER IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z...THANKS TO A ROUGHLY
30-35KT DIFFERENCE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND
ROUGHLY 1500 FT AGL...WHERE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THAT LEVEL
SHOULD MAX OUT ROUGHLY 45KT. GETTING INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LINGERING ROGUE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW FOR EVEN A
VCTS MENTION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE PASSAGE OF SEASONABLY-
STRONG COLD FRONT (BY JULY STANDARDS)...AS THE SOUTHERLY BREEZES
EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITION RATHER ABRUPTLY TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH GUST POTENTIAL INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE. THIS NORTHERLY DIRECTION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO
NEAR/BELOW 10KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LAST BUT NOT
LEAST...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CEILING DURING THE
DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
OPTIMISTICALLY TOWARD THE LOWER-END VFR SCENARIO...BUT THIS WILL
NEED MONITORED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 280841
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN BETWEEN VTN AND LBF...AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT THEY WILL IMPACT EITHER ONE OF THE TAF SITES. SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION FOR TSTMS AT THE TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCAL GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
CLIMATE...MASEK



000
FXUS63 KLBF 280841
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN BETWEEN VTN AND LBF...AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT THEY WILL IMPACT EITHER ONE OF THE TAF SITES. SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION FOR TSTMS AT THE TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCAL GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
CLIMATE...MASEK



000
FXUS63 KLBF 280841
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN BETWEEN VTN AND LBF...AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT THEY WILL IMPACT EITHER ONE OF THE TAF SITES. SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION FOR TSTMS AT THE TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCAL GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
CLIMATE...MASEK



000
FXUS63 KLBF 280841
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN BETWEEN VTN AND LBF...AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT THEY WILL IMPACT EITHER ONE OF THE TAF SITES. SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION FOR TSTMS AT THE TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCAL GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
CLIMATE...MASEK



000
FXUS63 KLBF 280841
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ON THE 07Z MSL PLOT...TEMPERATURE...PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS
SHOWED THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FIELDS COULD BE A LITTLE DECEIVING DUE
TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXTENDING TO A DEVELOPING
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THE UPPER WIND FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED A DEEPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT GOING THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO
PROBABILITY. THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN HIGH THAT MOVES IN WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA AS WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND THE SKY CLEARS. THAT TRANSLATES TO
LOWS TONIGHT POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND LOWER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE AND 50 TO 55 IN
MOST OF THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOWER TEMPERATURES
(POSSIBLY 45 TO 50) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
OTHER LOW AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING...WEDNESDAY WILL WARM NICELY
BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHT NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS KS/OK. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING DEW POINTS ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR
JULY...40S TO AROUND 50. RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

WED NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE CWA AND
RETURN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO BL MOISTURE AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MOST AREAS IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...HOWEVER IF MOISTURE IS SLOWER THAN MODELS EXPECT
TEMPS MAY RIVAL THOSE OF TONIGHT.

THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A RETURN
OF MORE MOISTURE. FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO RIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FEW CHANCES HERE AND THERE FOR THEM TO
PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. THUS WILL HAVE A FEW PERIODS WITH LOW
POPS...DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

FOR THE WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EXPANSION WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR THE AREA. MORE AREAS LIKELY TO
REACH ABOVE 90. STILL SEEING SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF ON AND OFF POPS. NOT
GOING TO BE A WASH OF A WEEKEND...BUT WITH EACH PASSING WAVE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN BETWEEN VTN AND LBF...AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT THEY WILL IMPACT EITHER ONE OF THE TAF SITES. SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION FOR TSTMS AT THE TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCAL GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT AT/BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS COULD BE CLOSE...ESPECIALLY AT NORTH PLATTE AND
IMPERIAL WHERE THE RECORDS ARE WARMER. RECORD LOWS FOR THE
CLIMATE SITES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...JULY 29...ARE...
NORTH PLATTE...49...1971/1892.
VALENTINE...42...1971.
BROKEN BOW...45...1994.
IMPERIAL...50...1923/1906/1900.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
CLIMATE...MASEK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 280800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWINFG STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING. DID PUSH BACK THE TIMING AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SLOWER PROGRESSION. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
TURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20-22Z...WHICH
COULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KOMA AND KLNK. DID ADD A PROB30
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 280800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWINFG STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING. DID PUSH BACK THE TIMING AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SLOWER PROGRESSION. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
TURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20-22Z...WHICH
COULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KOMA AND KLNK. DID ADD A PROB30
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWINFG STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING. DID PUSH BACK THE TIMING AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SLOWER PROGRESSION. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
TURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20-22Z...WHICH
COULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KOMA AND KLNK. DID ADD A PROB30
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 280800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWINFG STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING. DID PUSH BACK THE TIMING AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SLOWER PROGRESSION. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
TURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20-22Z...WHICH
COULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KOMA AND KLNK. DID ADD A PROB30
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KGID 280551
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1251 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS BY THE TIME OF THE
MAIN MORNING DISCUSSION ISSUANCE AROUND ROUGHLY 4 AM...BUT AT
LEAST TO STATE THE OBVIOUS FOR NOW...AS OF 0530Z/1230 AM...THE
ENTIRE CWA HAS THUS FAR REMAINED STORM-FREE TONIGHT WITH ALL
ONGOING STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINING 50-100 MILES NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA IN THE SANDHILLS. IN SHORT...VARIOUS MODELS SUCH AS THE
LATEST RAP13 HAVE CERTAINLY STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES SO
FAR TONIGHT...INITIATING THINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TOO EARLY AND
TOO AGGRESSIVELY. CERTAINLY TWO LIMITING FACTORS THUS FAR HAVE
LIKELY BEEN 1) RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS EVIDENT BY 700MB VALUES
IN THE 13-15C RANGE AND 2) LACK OF LARGE-SCALE LOW-MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A STOUT 850MB LOW LEVEL
JET OVERHEAD (40-50KT) THERE IS THUS FAR LITTLE TO NO SPEED
CONVERGENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON THOUGH INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...AND IT REMAINS QUITE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY
AFTER 08Z/3AM) THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THEN EXPAND EAST
AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHILE RATHER WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...SAW NO REASON TO REDUCE THE GOING
20-40 POPS ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...KEEPING THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTH. AS FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST STORMS
SHOULD BE RATHER ELEVATED...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR PRIMARILY SEVERE HAIL...GIVEN MUCAPE UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF GENERALLY 20-30KT. A SEVERE WIND THREAT WOULD SEEMINGLY BE LESS
LIKELY...UNLESS AN ORGANIZED SURGING COLD POOL CAN GET GOING. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH (OR HOW LITTLE?) CONVECTION
DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA DURING THESE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE AREA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SRN CONUS WHILE A
STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SITTING
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
RAIN TO MAINLY WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HAVE BEEN DRY ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN THIS
MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...BUT AS THE DAY AS PASSED
AND THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE PLAINS...LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN MORE
SRLY FLOW...WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE.

KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND INCREASING
LARGER SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH
A HEALTHY LLJ DEVELOPING /MODELS GENERALLY ARND 50KTS/ WILL HELP
DRIVE THESE CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LLJ SETS UP AND WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...SOME SHOW
ACTIVITY PLOWING RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS SHOW
THE NWRN THIRD OR SO WITH THE BEST CHANCES...AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. KEPT THE 50 POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT LEFT 20 TO 40 POPS
ELSEWHERE...WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
COMING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY/DEEPER LAYER SHEAR COMBO KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A CONCERN...WITH THE
CWA SITTING IN THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS. WIND/HAIL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...AND AT 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA.
AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY
E/SE...AND MODELS ARE NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
FRONT AT 12Z ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. BECAUSE THIS FRONT
HAS A BETTER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSH FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA. BY
18Z MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ALREADY OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
THIS FRONT WILL START TO USHER IN MUCH WELCOME DRIER DEWPOINTS
FROM NW/SE...THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD DROP IS LIKELY JUST AFTER
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD/...AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE.

KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS /THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE WONT BE ANY POST
12Z/...BUT ONCE THAT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST...ANY POPS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN AREAS.
ACTUALLY TRIMMED A LITTLE BIT MORE OFF THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
INHERITED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
FAR ENOUGH SE LIKE SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THOSE POPS COULD BE
REMOVED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR SYNOPTIC WEATHER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES THAT WILL
BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK
GIVING US WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY AND WILL ALLOW LOW-
AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TO POTENTIALLY GIVE US A SMALL SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE LONG
TERM...WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OTHERS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TUESDAY
NIGHT ROLLS AROUND. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WE MAY GET IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THEM MID 80S...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES.

BY THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW RETURNS AND A STEADY RISE IN DEWPOINTS
WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIZABLE
WAVES IN THE FORECAST TO GIVE US ANYTHING MORE THAN A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NOTHING PARTICULARLY STANDS OUT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE AT LEAST FOUR CAVEATS AND/OR
ISSUES TO CONSIDER DURING THE PERIOD. STARTING OFF WITH THESE
FIRST 6-9 HOURS OR SO...THE TWO PRIMARY ISSUES INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO THE CONTINUANCE
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) STRONG ENOUGH FOR TAF MENTION. AS
FOR THE STORM CHANCES...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE
08Z-13Z TIME FRAME...AND GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT
THE TERMINALS IS STILL RATHER SHAKY...HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION FOR NOW. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...AT LEAST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN/SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY MUCH HIGHER IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z...THANKS TO A ROUGHLY
30-35KT DIFFERENCE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND
ROUGHLY 1500 FT AGL...WHERE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THAT LEVEL
SHOULD MAX OUT ROUGHLY 45KT. GETTING INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LINGERING ROGUE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW FOR EVEN A
VCTS MENTION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE PASSAGE OF SEASONABLY-
STRONG COLD FRONT (BY JULY STANDARDS)...AS THE SOUTHERLY BREEZES
EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITION RATHER ABRUPTLY TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH GUST POTENTIAL INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE. THIS NORTHERLY DIRECTION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO
NEAR/BELOW 10KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LAST BUT NOT
LEAST...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CEILING DURING THE
DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
OPTIMISTICALLY TOWARD THE LOWER-END VFR SCENARIO...BUT THIS WILL
NEED MONITORED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 280551
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1251 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS BY THE TIME OF THE
MAIN MORNING DISCUSSION ISSUANCE AROUND ROUGHLY 4 AM...BUT AT
LEAST TO STATE THE OBVIOUS FOR NOW...AS OF 0530Z/1230 AM...THE
ENTIRE CWA HAS THUS FAR REMAINED STORM-FREE TONIGHT WITH ALL
ONGOING STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINING 50-100 MILES NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA IN THE SANDHILLS. IN SHORT...VARIOUS MODELS SUCH AS THE
LATEST RAP13 HAVE CERTAINLY STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES SO
FAR TONIGHT...INITIATING THINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TOO EARLY AND
TOO AGGRESSIVELY. CERTAINLY TWO LIMITING FACTORS THUS FAR HAVE
LIKELY BEEN 1) RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS EVIDENT BY 700MB VALUES
IN THE 13-15C RANGE AND 2) LACK OF LARGE-SCALE LOW-MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A STOUT 850MB LOW LEVEL
JET OVERHEAD (40-50KT) THERE IS THUS FAR LITTLE TO NO SPEED
CONVERGENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON THOUGH INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...AND IT REMAINS QUITE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY
AFTER 08Z/3AM) THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THEN EXPAND EAST
AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHILE RATHER WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...SAW NO REASON TO REDUCE THE GOING
20-40 POPS ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...KEEPING THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTH. AS FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST STORMS
SHOULD BE RATHER ELEVATED...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR PRIMARILY SEVERE HAIL...GIVEN MUCAPE UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF GENERALLY 20-30KT. A SEVERE WIND THREAT WOULD SEEMINGLY BE LESS
LIKELY...UNLESS AN ORGANIZED SURGING COLD POOL CAN GET GOING. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH (OR HOW LITTLE?) CONVECTION
DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA DURING THESE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE AREA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SRN CONUS WHILE A
STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SITTING
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
RAIN TO MAINLY WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HAVE BEEN DRY ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN THIS
MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...BUT AS THE DAY AS PASSED
AND THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE PLAINS...LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN MORE
SRLY FLOW...WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE.

KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND INCREASING
LARGER SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH
A HEALTHY LLJ DEVELOPING /MODELS GENERALLY ARND 50KTS/ WILL HELP
DRIVE THESE CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LLJ SETS UP AND WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...SOME SHOW
ACTIVITY PLOWING RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS SHOW
THE NWRN THIRD OR SO WITH THE BEST CHANCES...AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. KEPT THE 50 POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT LEFT 20 TO 40 POPS
ELSEWHERE...WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
COMING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY/DEEPER LAYER SHEAR COMBO KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A CONCERN...WITH THE
CWA SITTING IN THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS. WIND/HAIL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...AND AT 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA.
AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY
E/SE...AND MODELS ARE NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
FRONT AT 12Z ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. BECAUSE THIS FRONT
HAS A BETTER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSH FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA. BY
18Z MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ALREADY OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
THIS FRONT WILL START TO USHER IN MUCH WELCOME DRIER DEWPOINTS
FROM NW/SE...THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD DROP IS LIKELY JUST AFTER
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD/...AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE.

KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS /THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE WONT BE ANY POST
12Z/...BUT ONCE THAT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST...ANY POPS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN AREAS.
ACTUALLY TRIMMED A LITTLE BIT MORE OFF THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
INHERITED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
FAR ENOUGH SE LIKE SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THOSE POPS COULD BE
REMOVED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR SYNOPTIC WEATHER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES THAT WILL
BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK
GIVING US WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY AND WILL ALLOW LOW-
AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TO POTENTIALLY GIVE US A SMALL SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE LONG
TERM...WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OTHERS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TUESDAY
NIGHT ROLLS AROUND. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WE MAY GET IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THEM MID 80S...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES.

BY THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW RETURNS AND A STEADY RISE IN DEWPOINTS
WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIZABLE
WAVES IN THE FORECAST TO GIVE US ANYTHING MORE THAN A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NOTHING PARTICULARLY STANDS OUT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE AT LEAST FOUR CAVEATS AND/OR
ISSUES TO CONSIDER DURING THE PERIOD. STARTING OFF WITH THESE
FIRST 6-9 HOURS OR SO...THE TWO PRIMARY ISSUES INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO THE CONTINUANCE
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) STRONG ENOUGH FOR TAF MENTION. AS
FOR THE STORM CHANCES...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE
08Z-13Z TIME FRAME...AND GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT
THE TERMINALS IS STILL RATHER SHAKY...HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION FOR NOW. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...AT LEAST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN/SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY MUCH HIGHER IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z...THANKS TO A ROUGHLY
30-35KT DIFFERENCE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND
ROUGHLY 1500 FT AGL...WHERE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THAT LEVEL
SHOULD MAX OUT ROUGHLY 45KT. GETTING INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LINGERING ROGUE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW FOR EVEN A
VCTS MENTION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE PASSAGE OF SEASONABLY-
STRONG COLD FRONT (BY JULY STANDARDS)...AS THE SOUTHERLY BREEZES
EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITION RATHER ABRUPTLY TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH GUST POTENTIAL INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE. THIS NORTHERLY DIRECTION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO
NEAR/BELOW 10KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LAST BUT NOT
LEAST...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CEILING DURING THE
DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
OPTIMISTICALLY TOWARD THE LOWER-END VFR SCENARIO...BUT THIS WILL
NEED MONITORED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 280551
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1251 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS BY THE TIME OF THE
MAIN MORNING DISCUSSION ISSUANCE AROUND ROUGHLY 4 AM...BUT AT
LEAST TO STATE THE OBVIOUS FOR NOW...AS OF 0530Z/1230 AM...THE
ENTIRE CWA HAS THUS FAR REMAINED STORM-FREE TONIGHT WITH ALL
ONGOING STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINING 50-100 MILES NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA IN THE SANDHILLS. IN SHORT...VARIOUS MODELS SUCH AS THE
LATEST RAP13 HAVE CERTAINLY STRUGGLED WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES SO
FAR TONIGHT...INITIATING THINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TOO EARLY AND
TOO AGGRESSIVELY. CERTAINLY TWO LIMITING FACTORS THUS FAR HAVE
LIKELY BEEN 1) RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS EVIDENT BY 700MB VALUES
IN THE 13-15C RANGE AND 2) LACK OF LARGE-SCALE LOW-MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A STOUT 850MB LOW LEVEL
JET OVERHEAD (40-50KT) THERE IS THUS FAR LITTLE TO NO SPEED
CONVERGENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON THOUGH INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...AND IT REMAINS QUITE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY
AFTER 08Z/3AM) THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NORTHWEST CWA AND THEN EXPAND EAST
AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHILE RATHER WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...SAW NO REASON TO REDUCE THE GOING
20-40 POPS ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...KEEPING THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTH. AS FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST STORMS
SHOULD BE RATHER ELEVATED...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR PRIMARILY SEVERE HAIL...GIVEN MUCAPE UP TO AROUND 2000
J/KG IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF GENERALLY 20-30KT. A SEVERE WIND THREAT WOULD SEEMINGLY BE LESS
LIKELY...UNLESS AN ORGANIZED SURGING COLD POOL CAN GET GOING. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH (OR HOW LITTLE?) CONVECTION
DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA DURING THESE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE AREA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SRN CONUS WHILE A
STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SITTING
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
RAIN TO MAINLY WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HAVE BEEN DRY ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN THIS
MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...BUT AS THE DAY AS PASSED
AND THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE PLAINS...LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN MORE
SRLY FLOW...WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE.

KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND INCREASING
LARGER SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH
A HEALTHY LLJ DEVELOPING /MODELS GENERALLY ARND 50KTS/ WILL HELP
DRIVE THESE CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LLJ SETS UP AND WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...SOME SHOW
ACTIVITY PLOWING RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS SHOW
THE NWRN THIRD OR SO WITH THE BEST CHANCES...AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. KEPT THE 50 POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT LEFT 20 TO 40 POPS
ELSEWHERE...WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
COMING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY/DEEPER LAYER SHEAR COMBO KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A CONCERN...WITH THE
CWA SITTING IN THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS. WIND/HAIL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...AND AT 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA.
AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY
E/SE...AND MODELS ARE NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
FRONT AT 12Z ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. BECAUSE THIS FRONT
HAS A BETTER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSH FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA. BY
18Z MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ALREADY OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
THIS FRONT WILL START TO USHER IN MUCH WELCOME DRIER DEWPOINTS
FROM NW/SE...THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD DROP IS LIKELY JUST AFTER
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD/...AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE.

KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS /THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE WONT BE ANY POST
12Z/...BUT ONCE THAT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST...ANY POPS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN AREAS.
ACTUALLY TRIMMED A LITTLE BIT MORE OFF THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
INHERITED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
FAR ENOUGH SE LIKE SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THOSE POPS COULD BE
REMOVED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR SYNOPTIC WEATHER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES THAT WILL
BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK
GIVING US WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY AND WILL ALLOW LOW-
AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TO POTENTIALLY GIVE US A SMALL SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE LONG
TERM...WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OTHERS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TUESDAY
NIGHT ROLLS AROUND. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WE MAY GET IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THEM MID 80S...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES.

BY THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW RETURNS AND A STEADY RISE IN DEWPOINTS
WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIZABLE
WAVES IN THE FORECAST TO GIVE US ANYTHING MORE THAN A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NOTHING PARTICULARLY STANDS OUT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ALTHOUGH VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE AT LEAST FOUR CAVEATS AND/OR
ISSUES TO CONSIDER DURING THE PERIOD. STARTING OFF WITH THESE
FIRST 6-9 HOURS OR SO...THE TWO PRIMARY ISSUES INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO THE CONTINUANCE
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) STRONG ENOUGH FOR TAF MENTION. AS
FOR THE STORM CHANCES...THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE
08Z-13Z TIME FRAME...AND GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT
THE TERMINALS IS STILL RATHER SHAKY...HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION FOR NOW. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...AT LEAST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN/SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY MUCH HIGHER IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z...THANKS TO A ROUGHLY
30-35KT DIFFERENCE IN SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND
ROUGHLY 1500 FT AGL...WHERE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THAT LEVEL
SHOULD MAX OUT ROUGHLY 45KT. GETTING INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LINGERING ROGUE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW FOR EVEN A
VCTS MENTION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE PASSAGE OF SEASONABLY-
STRONG COLD FRONT (BY JULY STANDARDS)...AS THE SOUTHERLY BREEZES
EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITION RATHER ABRUPTLY TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH GUST POTENTIAL INTO THE 20-25KT
RANGE. THIS NORTHERLY DIRECTION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO
NEAR/BELOW 10KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LAST BUT NOT
LEAST...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CEILING DURING THE
DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
OPTIMISTICALLY TOWARD THE LOWER-END VFR SCENARIO...BUT THIS WILL
NEED MONITORED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KOAX 280442
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR
AREA. STORMS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS TO I80 BY 10-12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING. DID PUSH BACK THE TIMING AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SLOWER PROGRESSION. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
TURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20-22Z...WHICH
COULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KOMA AND KLNK. DID ADD A PROB30
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280442
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR
AREA. STORMS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS TO I80 BY 10-12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING. DID PUSH BACK THE TIMING AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SLOWER PROGRESSION. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
TURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20-22Z...WHICH
COULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KOMA AND KLNK. DID ADD A PROB30
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280442
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR
AREA. STORMS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS TO I80 BY 10-12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING. DID PUSH BACK THE TIMING AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SLOWER PROGRESSION. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
TURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20-22Z...WHICH
COULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KOMA AND KLNK. DID ADD A PROB30
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280442
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR
AREA. STORMS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS TO I80 BY 10-12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING. DID PUSH BACK THE TIMING AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SLOWER PROGRESSION. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
TURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20-22Z...WHICH
COULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KOMA AND KLNK. DID ADD A PROB30
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280442
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR
AREA. STORMS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS TO I80 BY 10-12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING. DID PUSH BACK THE TIMING AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SLOWER PROGRESSION. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
TURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20-22Z...WHICH
COULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KOMA AND KLNK. DID ADD A PROB30
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280442
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR
AREA. STORMS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS TO I80 BY 10-12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING. DID PUSH BACK THE TIMING AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SLOWER PROGRESSION. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
TURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20-22Z...WHICH
COULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KOMA AND KLNK. DID ADD A PROB30
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280442
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR
AREA. STORMS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS TO I80 BY 10-12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING. DID PUSH BACK THE TIMING AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SLOWER PROGRESSION. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
TURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20-22Z...WHICH
COULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KOMA AND KLNK. DID ADD A PROB30
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280442
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR
AREA. STORMS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS TO I80 BY 10-12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING. DID PUSH BACK THE TIMING AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SLOWER PROGRESSION. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
TURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20-22Z...WHICH
COULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KOMA AND KLNK. DID ADD A PROB30
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 280439
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  A SECONDARY CONCERN
IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER...AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
ONE WOULD HOPE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS.  THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE LATEST RAP AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE TWO FAVORED
AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FIRST IS ALONG A DRYLINE PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.  CURIOUS
HOWEVER AS TO WHY THE MODEL IS SO AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXTEND OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT ON
FURTHER INVESTIGATION...THE MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LINE OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.
REGARDLESS THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS YIELDING
SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRI-
STATE REGION.  INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANT...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING.  STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE INITIALLY...BUT AS
A LLJ STRENGTHENS...CELLS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A EAST NORTHEAST
PROPAGATING MCS.  AM CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS
POINT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR RECORD PWATS AT KLBF BEFORE STORM
INITIATION...AND STORM MOTIONS OF 15KTS OR SO.  IF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MATERIALIZES LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 11K
FEET.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST
UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
LINE/THETA GRADIENT MIXES EAST.  HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING TODAY...AND GIVEN NO OTHER
DISCERNABLE FEATURES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON ARE IN
QUESTION.  THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE FIXED ON A SOLUTION HOWEVER OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S/ SPREADING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
SOLUTION EARLY...AND DID WELL WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...SO WILL
HEAVILY CONSIDER THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING AS OF NOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS
INDICATED ABOVE...STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY ACROSS ZONES 204 AND 210...AS READINGS ARE SHOWN TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT.  FUELS HOWEVER ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE
GROWTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...CLEAR SKIES...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
40S ERN PNHDL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 85...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO ABOUT 25
PERCENT.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEBR
ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 THURSDAY THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A
HUDSON BAY LOW PERSISTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN BETWEEN VTN AND LBF...AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THEY WILL IMPACT EITHER ONE OF THE TAF
SITES. SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION FOR TSTMS AT THE
TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH LOCAL GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR




000
FXUS63 KLBF 280439
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  A SECONDARY CONCERN
IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER...AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
ONE WOULD HOPE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS.  THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE LATEST RAP AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE TWO FAVORED
AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FIRST IS ALONG A DRYLINE PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.  CURIOUS
HOWEVER AS TO WHY THE MODEL IS SO AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXTEND OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT ON
FURTHER INVESTIGATION...THE MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LINE OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.
REGARDLESS THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS YIELDING
SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRI-
STATE REGION.  INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANT...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING.  STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE INITIALLY...BUT AS
A LLJ STRENGTHENS...CELLS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A EAST NORTHEAST
PROPAGATING MCS.  AM CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS
POINT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR RECORD PWATS AT KLBF BEFORE STORM
INITIATION...AND STORM MOTIONS OF 15KTS OR SO.  IF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MATERIALIZES LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 11K
FEET.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST
UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
LINE/THETA GRADIENT MIXES EAST.  HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING TODAY...AND GIVEN NO OTHER
DISCERNABLE FEATURES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON ARE IN
QUESTION.  THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE FIXED ON A SOLUTION HOWEVER OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S/ SPREADING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
SOLUTION EARLY...AND DID WELL WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...SO WILL
HEAVILY CONSIDER THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING AS OF NOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS
INDICATED ABOVE...STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY ACROSS ZONES 204 AND 210...AS READINGS ARE SHOWN TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT.  FUELS HOWEVER ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE
GROWTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...CLEAR SKIES...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
40S ERN PNHDL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 85...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO ABOUT 25
PERCENT.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEBR
ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 THURSDAY THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A
HUDSON BAY LOW PERSISTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN BETWEEN VTN AND LBF...AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THEY WILL IMPACT EITHER ONE OF THE TAF
SITES. SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION FOR TSTMS AT THE
TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH LOCAL GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR



000
FXUS63 KOAX 280302
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1002 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR
AREA. STORMS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS TO I80 BY 10-12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280302
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1002 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR
AREA. STORMS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS TO I80 BY 10-12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280302
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1002 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR
AREA. STORMS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS TO I80 BY 10-12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 280302
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1002 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR
AREA. STORMS SHOULD MAKE PROGRESS TO I80 BY 10-12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 272359
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  A SECONDARY CONCERN
IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER...AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
ONE WOULD HOPE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS.  THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE LATEST RAP AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE TWO FAVORED
AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FIRST IS ALONG A DRYLINE PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.  CURIOUS
HOWEVER AS TO WHY THE MODEL IS SO AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXTEND OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT ON
FURTHER INVESTIGATION...THE MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LINE OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.
REGARDLESS THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS YIELDING
SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRI-
STATE REGION.  INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANT...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING.  STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE INITIALLY...BUT AS
A LLJ STRENGTHENS...CELLS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A EAST NORTHEAST
PROPAGATING MCS.  AM CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS
POINT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR RECORD PWATS AT KLBF BEFORE STORM
INITIATION...AND STORM MOTIONS OF 15KTS OR SO.  IF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MATERIALIZES LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 11K
FEET.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST
UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
LINE/THETA GRADIENT MIXES EAST.  HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING TODAY...AND GIVEN NO OTHER
DISCERNABLE FEATURES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON ARE IN
QUESTION.  THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE FIXED ON A SOLUTION HOWEVER OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S/ SPREADING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
SOLUTION EARLY...AND DID WELL WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...SO WILL
HEAVILY CONSIDER THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING AS OF NOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS
INDICATED ABOVE...STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY ACROSS ZONES 204 AND 210...AS READINGS ARE SHOWN TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT.  FUELS HOWEVER ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE
GROWTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...CLEAR SKIES...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
40S ERN PNHDL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 85...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO ABOUT 25
PERCENT.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEBR
ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 THURSDAY THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A
HUDSON BAY LOW PERSISTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS LINE WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF STORMS FROM THE NORTH PLATTE TAF. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR




000
FXUS63 KLBF 272359
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  A SECONDARY CONCERN
IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER...AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
ONE WOULD HOPE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS.  THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE LATEST RAP AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE TWO FAVORED
AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FIRST IS ALONG A DRYLINE PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.  CURIOUS
HOWEVER AS TO WHY THE MODEL IS SO AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXTEND OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT ON
FURTHER INVESTIGATION...THE MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LINE OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.
REGARDLESS THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS YIELDING
SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRI-
STATE REGION.  INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANT...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING.  STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE INITIALLY...BUT AS
A LLJ STRENGTHENS...CELLS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A EAST NORTHEAST
PROPAGATING MCS.  AM CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS
POINT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR RECORD PWATS AT KLBF BEFORE STORM
INITIATION...AND STORM MOTIONS OF 15KTS OR SO.  IF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MATERIALIZES LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 11K
FEET.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST
UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
LINE/THETA GRADIENT MIXES EAST.  HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING TODAY...AND GIVEN NO OTHER
DISCERNABLE FEATURES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON ARE IN
QUESTION.  THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE FIXED ON A SOLUTION HOWEVER OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S/ SPREADING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
SOLUTION EARLY...AND DID WELL WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...SO WILL
HEAVILY CONSIDER THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING AS OF NOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS
INDICATED ABOVE...STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY ACROSS ZONES 204 AND 210...AS READINGS ARE SHOWN TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT.  FUELS HOWEVER ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE
GROWTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...CLEAR SKIES...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
40S ERN PNHDL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 85...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO ABOUT 25
PERCENT.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEBR
ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 THURSDAY THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A
HUDSON BAY LOW PERSISTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS LINE WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF STORMS FROM THE NORTH PLATTE TAF. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR




000
FXUS63 KLBF 272359
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  A SECONDARY CONCERN
IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER...AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
ONE WOULD HOPE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS.  THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE LATEST RAP AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE TWO FAVORED
AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FIRST IS ALONG A DRYLINE PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.  CURIOUS
HOWEVER AS TO WHY THE MODEL IS SO AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXTEND OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT ON
FURTHER INVESTIGATION...THE MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LINE OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.
REGARDLESS THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS YIELDING
SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRI-
STATE REGION.  INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANT...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING.  STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE INITIALLY...BUT AS
A LLJ STRENGTHENS...CELLS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A EAST NORTHEAST
PROPAGATING MCS.  AM CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS
POINT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR RECORD PWATS AT KLBF BEFORE STORM
INITIATION...AND STORM MOTIONS OF 15KTS OR SO.  IF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MATERIALIZES LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 11K
FEET.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST
UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
LINE/THETA GRADIENT MIXES EAST.  HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING TODAY...AND GIVEN NO OTHER
DISCERNABLE FEATURES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON ARE IN
QUESTION.  THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE FIXED ON A SOLUTION HOWEVER OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S/ SPREADING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
SOLUTION EARLY...AND DID WELL WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...SO WILL
HEAVILY CONSIDER THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING AS OF NOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS
INDICATED ABOVE...STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY ACROSS ZONES 204 AND 210...AS READINGS ARE SHOWN TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT.  FUELS HOWEVER ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE
GROWTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...CLEAR SKIES...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
40S ERN PNHDL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 85...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO ABOUT 25
PERCENT.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEBR
ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 THURSDAY THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A
HUDSON BAY LOW PERSISTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS LINE WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF STORMS FROM THE NORTH PLATTE TAF. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR




000
FXUS63 KLBF 272359
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  A SECONDARY CONCERN
IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER...AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
ONE WOULD HOPE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS.  THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE LATEST RAP AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE TWO FAVORED
AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FIRST IS ALONG A DRYLINE PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.  CURIOUS
HOWEVER AS TO WHY THE MODEL IS SO AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXTEND OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT ON
FURTHER INVESTIGATION...THE MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LINE OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.
REGARDLESS THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS YIELDING
SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRI-
STATE REGION.  INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANT...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING.  STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE INITIALLY...BUT AS
A LLJ STRENGTHENS...CELLS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A EAST NORTHEAST
PROPAGATING MCS.  AM CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS
POINT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR RECORD PWATS AT KLBF BEFORE STORM
INITIATION...AND STORM MOTIONS OF 15KTS OR SO.  IF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MATERIALIZES LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 11K
FEET.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST
UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
LINE/THETA GRADIENT MIXES EAST.  HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING TODAY...AND GIVEN NO OTHER
DISCERNABLE FEATURES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON ARE IN
QUESTION.  THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE FIXED ON A SOLUTION HOWEVER OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S/ SPREADING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
SOLUTION EARLY...AND DID WELL WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...SO WILL
HEAVILY CONSIDER THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING AS OF NOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS
INDICATED ABOVE...STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY ACROSS ZONES 204 AND 210...AS READINGS ARE SHOWN TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT.  FUELS HOWEVER ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE
GROWTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...CLEAR SKIES...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
40S ERN PNHDL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 85...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO ABOUT 25
PERCENT.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEBR
ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 THURSDAY THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A
HUDSON BAY LOW PERSISTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS LINE WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF STORMS FROM THE NORTH PLATTE TAF. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR




000
FXUS63 KGID 272348
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
648 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE AREA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SRN CONUS WHILE A
STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SITTING
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
RAIN TO MAINLY WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HAVE BEEN DRY ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN THIS
MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...BUT AS THE DAY AS PASSED
AND THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE PLAINS...LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN MORE
SRLY FLOW...WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE.

KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND INCREASING
LARGER SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH
A HEALTHY LLJ DEVELOPING /MODELS GENERALLY ARND 50KTS/ WILL HELP
DRIVE THESE CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LLJ SETS UP AND WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...SOME SHOW
ACTIVITY PLOWING RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS SHOW
THE NWRN THIRD OR SO WITH THE BEST CHANCES...AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. KEPT THE 50 POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT LEFT 20 TO 40 POPS
ELSEWHERE...WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
COMING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY/DEEPER LAYER SHEAR COMBO KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A CONCERN...WITH THE
CWA SITTING IN THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS. WIND/HAIL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...AND AT 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA.
AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY
E/SE...AND MODELS ARE NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
FRONT AT 12Z ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. BECAUSE THIS FRONT
HAS A BETTER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSH FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA. BY
18Z MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ALREADY OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
THIS FRONT WILL START TO USHER IN MUCH WELCOME DRIER DEWPOINTS
FROM NW/SE...THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD DROP IS LIKELY JUST AFTER
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD/...AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE.

KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS /THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE WONT BE ANY POST
12Z/...BUT ONCE THAT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST...ANY POPS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN AREAS.
ACTUALLY TRIMMED A LITTLE BIT MORE OFF THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
INHERITED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
FAR ENOUGH SE LIKE SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THOSE POPS COULD BE
REMOVED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR SYNOPTIC WEATHER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES THAT WILL
BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK
GIVING US WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY AND WILL ALLOW LOW-
AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TO POTENTIALLY GIVE US A SMALL SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE LONG
TERM...WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OTHERS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TUESDAY
NIGHT ROLLS AROUND. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WE MAY GET IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THEM MID 80S...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES.

BY THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW RETURNS AND A STEADY RISE IN DEWPOINTS
WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIZABLE
WAVES IN THE FORECAST TO GIVE US ANYTHING MORE THAN A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NOTHING PARTICULARLY STANDS OUT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS FAIRLY
LOW...SO KEPT A VCTS IN AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IS
FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER...SO EXPECT WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE IN THE
LOWEST 1500 FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND SUNSET...BASED ON LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 272348
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
648 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE AREA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SRN CONUS WHILE A
STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SITTING
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
RAIN TO MAINLY WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HAVE BEEN DRY ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN THIS
MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...BUT AS THE DAY AS PASSED
AND THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE PLAINS...LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN MORE
SRLY FLOW...WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE.

KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND INCREASING
LARGER SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH
A HEALTHY LLJ DEVELOPING /MODELS GENERALLY ARND 50KTS/ WILL HELP
DRIVE THESE CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LLJ SETS UP AND WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...SOME SHOW
ACTIVITY PLOWING RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS SHOW
THE NWRN THIRD OR SO WITH THE BEST CHANCES...AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. KEPT THE 50 POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT LEFT 20 TO 40 POPS
ELSEWHERE...WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
COMING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY/DEEPER LAYER SHEAR COMBO KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A CONCERN...WITH THE
CWA SITTING IN THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS. WIND/HAIL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...AND AT 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA.
AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY
E/SE...AND MODELS ARE NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
FRONT AT 12Z ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. BECAUSE THIS FRONT
HAS A BETTER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSH FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA. BY
18Z MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ALREADY OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
THIS FRONT WILL START TO USHER IN MUCH WELCOME DRIER DEWPOINTS
FROM NW/SE...THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD DROP IS LIKELY JUST AFTER
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD/...AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE.

KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS /THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE WONT BE ANY POST
12Z/...BUT ONCE THAT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST...ANY POPS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN AREAS.
ACTUALLY TRIMMED A LITTLE BIT MORE OFF THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
INHERITED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
FAR ENOUGH SE LIKE SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THOSE POPS COULD BE
REMOVED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR SYNOPTIC WEATHER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES THAT WILL
BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK
GIVING US WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY AND WILL ALLOW LOW-
AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TO POTENTIALLY GIVE US A SMALL SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE LONG
TERM...WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OTHERS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TUESDAY
NIGHT ROLLS AROUND. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WE MAY GET IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THEM MID 80S...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES.

BY THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW RETURNS AND A STEADY RISE IN DEWPOINTS
WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIZABLE
WAVES IN THE FORECAST TO GIVE US ANYTHING MORE THAN A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NOTHING PARTICULARLY STANDS OUT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS FAIRLY
LOW...SO KEPT A VCTS IN AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IS
FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER...SO EXPECT WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE IN THE
LOWEST 1500 FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND SUNSET...BASED ON LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 272348
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
648 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE AREA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SRN CONUS WHILE A
STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SITTING
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
RAIN TO MAINLY WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HAVE BEEN DRY ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN THIS
MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...BUT AS THE DAY AS PASSED
AND THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE PLAINS...LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN MORE
SRLY FLOW...WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE.

KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND INCREASING
LARGER SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH
A HEALTHY LLJ DEVELOPING /MODELS GENERALLY ARND 50KTS/ WILL HELP
DRIVE THESE CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LLJ SETS UP AND WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...SOME SHOW
ACTIVITY PLOWING RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS SHOW
THE NWRN THIRD OR SO WITH THE BEST CHANCES...AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. KEPT THE 50 POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT LEFT 20 TO 40 POPS
ELSEWHERE...WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
COMING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY/DEEPER LAYER SHEAR COMBO KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A CONCERN...WITH THE
CWA SITTING IN THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS. WIND/HAIL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...AND AT 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA.
AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY
E/SE...AND MODELS ARE NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
FRONT AT 12Z ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. BECAUSE THIS FRONT
HAS A BETTER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSH FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA. BY
18Z MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ALREADY OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
THIS FRONT WILL START TO USHER IN MUCH WELCOME DRIER DEWPOINTS
FROM NW/SE...THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD DROP IS LIKELY JUST AFTER
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD/...AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE.

KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS /THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE WONT BE ANY POST
12Z/...BUT ONCE THAT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST...ANY POPS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN AREAS.
ACTUALLY TRIMMED A LITTLE BIT MORE OFF THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
INHERITED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
FAR ENOUGH SE LIKE SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THOSE POPS COULD BE
REMOVED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR SYNOPTIC WEATHER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES THAT WILL
BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK
GIVING US WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY AND WILL ALLOW LOW-
AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TO POTENTIALLY GIVE US A SMALL SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE LONG
TERM...WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OTHERS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TUESDAY
NIGHT ROLLS AROUND. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WE MAY GET IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THEM MID 80S...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES.

BY THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW RETURNS AND A STEADY RISE IN DEWPOINTS
WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIZABLE
WAVES IN THE FORECAST TO GIVE US ANYTHING MORE THAN A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NOTHING PARTICULARLY STANDS OUT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS FAIRLY
LOW...SO KEPT A VCTS IN AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IS
FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER...SO EXPECT WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE IN THE
LOWEST 1500 FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND SUNSET...BASED ON LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 272348
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
648 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE AREA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SRN CONUS WHILE A
STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SITTING
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
RAIN TO MAINLY WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HAVE BEEN DRY ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN THIS
MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...BUT AS THE DAY AS PASSED
AND THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE PLAINS...LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN MORE
SRLY FLOW...WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE.

KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND INCREASING
LARGER SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH
A HEALTHY LLJ DEVELOPING /MODELS GENERALLY ARND 50KTS/ WILL HELP
DRIVE THESE CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LLJ SETS UP AND WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...SOME SHOW
ACTIVITY PLOWING RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS SHOW
THE NWRN THIRD OR SO WITH THE BEST CHANCES...AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. KEPT THE 50 POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT LEFT 20 TO 40 POPS
ELSEWHERE...WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
COMING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY/DEEPER LAYER SHEAR COMBO KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A CONCERN...WITH THE
CWA SITTING IN THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS. WIND/HAIL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...AND AT 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA.
AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY
E/SE...AND MODELS ARE NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
FRONT AT 12Z ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. BECAUSE THIS FRONT
HAS A BETTER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSH FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA. BY
18Z MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ALREADY OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
THIS FRONT WILL START TO USHER IN MUCH WELCOME DRIER DEWPOINTS
FROM NW/SE...THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD DROP IS LIKELY JUST AFTER
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD/...AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE.

KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS /THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE WONT BE ANY POST
12Z/...BUT ONCE THAT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST...ANY POPS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN AREAS.
ACTUALLY TRIMMED A LITTLE BIT MORE OFF THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
INHERITED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
FAR ENOUGH SE LIKE SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THOSE POPS COULD BE
REMOVED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR SYNOPTIC WEATHER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES THAT WILL
BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK
GIVING US WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY AND WILL ALLOW LOW-
AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TO POTENTIALLY GIVE US A SMALL SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE LONG
TERM...WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OTHERS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TUESDAY
NIGHT ROLLS AROUND. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WE MAY GET IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THEM MID 80S...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES.

BY THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW RETURNS AND A STEADY RISE IN DEWPOINTS
WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIZABLE
WAVES IN THE FORECAST TO GIVE US ANYTHING MORE THAN A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NOTHING PARTICULARLY STANDS OUT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS FAIRLY
LOW...SO KEPT A VCTS IN AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IS
FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER...SO EXPECT WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE IN THE
LOWEST 1500 FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND SUNSET...BASED ON LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 272348
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
648 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE AREA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SRN CONUS WHILE A
STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SITTING
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
RAIN TO MAINLY WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HAVE BEEN DRY ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN THIS
MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...BUT AS THE DAY AS PASSED
AND THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE PLAINS...LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN MORE
SRLY FLOW...WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE.

KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND INCREASING
LARGER SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH
A HEALTHY LLJ DEVELOPING /MODELS GENERALLY ARND 50KTS/ WILL HELP
DRIVE THESE CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LLJ SETS UP AND WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...SOME SHOW
ACTIVITY PLOWING RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS SHOW
THE NWRN THIRD OR SO WITH THE BEST CHANCES...AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. KEPT THE 50 POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT LEFT 20 TO 40 POPS
ELSEWHERE...WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
COMING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY/DEEPER LAYER SHEAR COMBO KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A CONCERN...WITH THE
CWA SITTING IN THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS. WIND/HAIL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...AND AT 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA.
AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY
E/SE...AND MODELS ARE NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
FRONT AT 12Z ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. BECAUSE THIS FRONT
HAS A BETTER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSH FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA. BY
18Z MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ALREADY OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
THIS FRONT WILL START TO USHER IN MUCH WELCOME DRIER DEWPOINTS
FROM NW/SE...THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD DROP IS LIKELY JUST AFTER
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD/...AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE.

KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS /THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE WONT BE ANY POST
12Z/...BUT ONCE THAT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST...ANY POPS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN AREAS.
ACTUALLY TRIMMED A LITTLE BIT MORE OFF THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
INHERITED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
FAR ENOUGH SE LIKE SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THOSE POPS COULD BE
REMOVED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR SYNOPTIC WEATHER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES THAT WILL
BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK
GIVING US WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY AND WILL ALLOW LOW-
AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TO POTENTIALLY GIVE US A SMALL SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE LONG
TERM...WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OTHERS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TUESDAY
NIGHT ROLLS AROUND. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WE MAY GET IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THEM MID 80S...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES.

BY THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW RETURNS AND A STEADY RISE IN DEWPOINTS
WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIZABLE
WAVES IN THE FORECAST TO GIVE US ANYTHING MORE THAN A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NOTHING PARTICULARLY STANDS OUT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS FAIRLY
LOW...SO KEPT A VCTS IN AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IS
FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER...SO EXPECT WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE IN THE
LOWEST 1500 FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND SUNSET...BASED ON LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 272348
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
648 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE AREA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SRN CONUS WHILE A
STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SITTING
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
RAIN TO MAINLY WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HAVE BEEN DRY ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN THIS
MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...BUT AS THE DAY AS PASSED
AND THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE PLAINS...LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN MORE
SRLY FLOW...WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE.

KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND INCREASING
LARGER SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH
A HEALTHY LLJ DEVELOPING /MODELS GENERALLY ARND 50KTS/ WILL HELP
DRIVE THESE CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LLJ SETS UP AND WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...SOME SHOW
ACTIVITY PLOWING RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS SHOW
THE NWRN THIRD OR SO WITH THE BEST CHANCES...AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. KEPT THE 50 POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT LEFT 20 TO 40 POPS
ELSEWHERE...WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
COMING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY/DEEPER LAYER SHEAR COMBO KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A CONCERN...WITH THE
CWA SITTING IN THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS. WIND/HAIL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...AND AT 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA.
AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY
E/SE...AND MODELS ARE NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
FRONT AT 12Z ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. BECAUSE THIS FRONT
HAS A BETTER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSH FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA. BY
18Z MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ALREADY OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
THIS FRONT WILL START TO USHER IN MUCH WELCOME DRIER DEWPOINTS
FROM NW/SE...THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD DROP IS LIKELY JUST AFTER
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD/...AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE.

KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS /THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE WONT BE ANY POST
12Z/...BUT ONCE THAT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST...ANY POPS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN AREAS.
ACTUALLY TRIMMED A LITTLE BIT MORE OFF THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
INHERITED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
FAR ENOUGH SE LIKE SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THOSE POPS COULD BE
REMOVED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR SYNOPTIC WEATHER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES THAT WILL
BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK
GIVING US WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY AND WILL ALLOW LOW-
AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TO POTENTIALLY GIVE US A SMALL SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE LONG
TERM...WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OTHERS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TUESDAY
NIGHT ROLLS AROUND. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WE MAY GET IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THEM MID 80S...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES.

BY THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW RETURNS AND A STEADY RISE IN DEWPOINTS
WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIZABLE
WAVES IN THE FORECAST TO GIVE US ANYTHING MORE THAN A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NOTHING PARTICULARLY STANDS OUT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS FAIRLY
LOW...SO KEPT A VCTS IN AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IS
FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER...SO EXPECT WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE IN THE
LOWEST 1500 FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND SUNSET...BASED ON LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KOAX 272308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 272308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 272308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 272308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 272308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 272308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PASSING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 06Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK TOWARD SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 272031
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
331 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  A SECONDARY CONCERN
IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER...AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
ONE WOULD HOPE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS.  THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE LATEST RAP AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE TWO FAVORED
AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FIRST IS ALONG A DRYLINE PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.  CURIOUS
HOWEVER AS TO WHY THE MODEL IS SO AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXTEND OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT ON
FURTHER INVESTIGATION...THE MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LINE OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.
REGARDLESS THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS YIELDING
SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRI-
STATE REGION.  INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANT...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING.  STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE INITIALLY...BUT AS
A LLJ STRENGTHENS...CELLS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A EAST NORTHEAST
PROPAGATING MCS.  AM CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS
POINT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR RECORD PWATS AT KLBF BEFORE STORM
INITIATION...AND STORM MOTIONS OF 15KTS OR SO.  IF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MATERIALIZES LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 11K
FEET.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST
UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
LINE/THETA GRADIENT MIXES EAST.  HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING TODAY...AND GIVEN NO OTHER
DISCERNABLE FEATURES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON ARE IN
QUESTION.  THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE FIXED ON A SOLUTION HOWEVER OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S/ SPREADING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
SOLUTION EARLY...AND DID WELL WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...SO WILL
HEAVILY CONSIDER THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING AS OF NOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS
INDICATED ABOVE...STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY ACROSS ZONES 204 AND 210...AS READINGS ARE SHOWN TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT.  FUELS HOWEVER ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE
GROWTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...CLEAR SKIES...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
40S ERN PNHDL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 85...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO ABOUT 25
PERCENT.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEBR
ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 THURSDAY THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A
HUDSON BAY LOW PERSISTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE AVIATION FORECAST...WE
ANTICIPATED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE
SIDE...FORMING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT STORM
INITIATION WILL OCCUR IN TWO FAVORED AREAS...OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THEN STORMS ARE SHOWN TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
BOTH KLBF AND KVTN. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
OF THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN. OTHERWISE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
IFR /OR LOWER/ VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING FOR A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS



000
FXUS63 KLBF 272031
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
331 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  A SECONDARY CONCERN
IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER...AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
ONE WOULD HOPE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS.  THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE LATEST RAP AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE TWO FAVORED
AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FIRST IS ALONG A DRYLINE PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.  CURIOUS
HOWEVER AS TO WHY THE MODEL IS SO AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXTEND OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT ON
FURTHER INVESTIGATION...THE MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LINE OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.
REGARDLESS THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS YIELDING
SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRI-
STATE REGION.  INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANT...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING.  STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE INITIALLY...BUT AS
A LLJ STRENGTHENS...CELLS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A EAST NORTHEAST
PROPAGATING MCS.  AM CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS
POINT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR RECORD PWATS AT KLBF BEFORE STORM
INITIATION...AND STORM MOTIONS OF 15KTS OR SO.  IF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MATERIALIZES LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 11K
FEET.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST
UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
LINE/THETA GRADIENT MIXES EAST.  HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING TODAY...AND GIVEN NO OTHER
DISCERNABLE FEATURES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON ARE IN
QUESTION.  THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE FIXED ON A SOLUTION HOWEVER OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S/ SPREADING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
SOLUTION EARLY...AND DID WELL WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...SO WILL
HEAVILY CONSIDER THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING AS OF NOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS
INDICATED ABOVE...STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY ACROSS ZONES 204 AND 210...AS READINGS ARE SHOWN TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT.  FUELS HOWEVER ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE
GROWTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...CLEAR SKIES...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
40S ERN PNHDL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 85...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO ABOUT 25
PERCENT.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEBR
ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 THURSDAY THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A
HUDSON BAY LOW PERSISTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE AVIATION FORECAST...WE
ANTICIPATED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE
SIDE...FORMING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT STORM
INITIATION WILL OCCUR IN TWO FAVORED AREAS...OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THEN STORMS ARE SHOWN TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
BOTH KLBF AND KVTN. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
OF THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN. OTHERWISE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
IFR /OR LOWER/ VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING FOR A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS



000
FXUS63 KLBF 272031
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
331 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  A SECONDARY CONCERN
IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER...AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
ONE WOULD HOPE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS.  THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE LATEST RAP AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE TWO FAVORED
AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FIRST IS ALONG A DRYLINE PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.  CURIOUS
HOWEVER AS TO WHY THE MODEL IS SO AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXTEND OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT ON
FURTHER INVESTIGATION...THE MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LINE OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.
REGARDLESS THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS YIELDING
SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRI-
STATE REGION.  INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANT...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING.  STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE INITIALLY...BUT AS
A LLJ STRENGTHENS...CELLS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A EAST NORTHEAST
PROPAGATING MCS.  AM CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS
POINT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR RECORD PWATS AT KLBF BEFORE STORM
INITIATION...AND STORM MOTIONS OF 15KTS OR SO.  IF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MATERIALIZES LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 11K
FEET.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST
UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
LINE/THETA GRADIENT MIXES EAST.  HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING TODAY...AND GIVEN NO OTHER
DISCERNABLE FEATURES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON ARE IN
QUESTION.  THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE FIXED ON A SOLUTION HOWEVER OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S/ SPREADING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
SOLUTION EARLY...AND DID WELL WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...SO WILL
HEAVILY CONSIDER THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING AS OF NOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS
INDICATED ABOVE...STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY ACROSS ZONES 204 AND 210...AS READINGS ARE SHOWN TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT.  FUELS HOWEVER ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE
GROWTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...CLEAR SKIES...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
40S ERN PNHDL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 85...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO ABOUT 25
PERCENT.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEBR
ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 THURSDAY THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A
HUDSON BAY LOW PERSISTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE AVIATION FORECAST...WE
ANTICIPATED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE
SIDE...FORMING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT STORM
INITIATION WILL OCCUR IN TWO FAVORED AREAS...OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THEN STORMS ARE SHOWN TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
BOTH KLBF AND KVTN. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
OF THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN. OTHERWISE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
IFR /OR LOWER/ VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING FOR A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS




000
FXUS63 KLBF 272031
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
331 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  A SECONDARY CONCERN
IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER...AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
ONE WOULD HOPE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS.  THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE LATEST RAP AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE TWO FAVORED
AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FIRST IS ALONG A DRYLINE PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.  CURIOUS
HOWEVER AS TO WHY THE MODEL IS SO AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXTEND OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT ON
FURTHER INVESTIGATION...THE MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LINE OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.
REGARDLESS THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS YIELDING
SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRI-
STATE REGION.  INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANT...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING.  STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE INITIALLY...BUT AS
A LLJ STRENGTHENS...CELLS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A EAST NORTHEAST
PROPAGATING MCS.  AM CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS
POINT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR RECORD PWATS AT KLBF BEFORE STORM
INITIATION...AND STORM MOTIONS OF 15KTS OR SO.  IF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MATERIALIZES LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 11K
FEET.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST
UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
LINE/THETA GRADIENT MIXES EAST.  HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING TODAY...AND GIVEN NO OTHER
DISCERNABLE FEATURES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON ARE IN
QUESTION.  THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE FIXED ON A SOLUTION HOWEVER OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S/ SPREADING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
SOLUTION EARLY...AND DID WELL WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...SO WILL
HEAVILY CONSIDER THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING AS OF NOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS
INDICATED ABOVE...STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY ACROSS ZONES 204 AND 210...AS READINGS ARE SHOWN TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT.  FUELS HOWEVER ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE
GROWTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...CLEAR SKIES...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
40S ERN PNHDL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 85...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO ABOUT 25
PERCENT.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEBR
ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 THURSDAY THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A
HUDSON BAY LOW PERSISTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE AVIATION FORECAST...WE
ANTICIPATED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE
SIDE...FORMING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT STORM
INITIATION WILL OCCUR IN TWO FAVORED AREAS...OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THEN STORMS ARE SHOWN TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
BOTH KLBF AND KVTN. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
OF THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN. OTHERWISE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
IFR /OR LOWER/ VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING FOR A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS




000
FXUS63 KOAX 272014
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SITES SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF PRECIPITATION OR LOWERED CEILINGS/VIS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
TONIGHT TO THE AREAS OF KOFK/KOMA AT LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE...BUT DID MAKE A BEST GUESS FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS TO AFFECT KOFK/KOMA JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. LEFT
KLNK DRY FOR NOW WITH EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ITS VICINITY. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
KOFK BY MID/LATE MORNING AND SHOULD JUST START TO AFFECT KLNK/KOMA
BY THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KOAX 272014
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE HELP
OF A 40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW STORMS PUSHING
THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUT HUMID WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SW IOWA...WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS SHOULD
BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE AIR TO THE ENTIRE CWA. UNDER THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SITES SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF PRECIPITATION OR LOWERED CEILINGS/VIS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
TONIGHT TO THE AREAS OF KOFK/KOMA AT LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE...BUT DID MAKE A BEST GUESS FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS TO AFFECT KOFK/KOMA JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. LEFT
KLNK DRY FOR NOW WITH EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ITS VICINITY. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
KOFK BY MID/LATE MORNING AND SHOULD JUST START TO AFFECT KLNK/KOMA
BY THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KGID 272013
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
313 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE AREA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SRN CONUS WHILE A
STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SITTING
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
RAIN TO MAINLY WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HAVE BEEN DRY ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN THIS
MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...BUT AS THE DAY AS PASSED
AND THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE PLAINS...LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN MORE
SRLY FLOW...WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE.

KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND INCREASING
LARGER SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH
A HEALTHY LLJ DEVELOPING /MODELS GENERALLY ARND 50KTS/ WILL HELP
DRIVE THESE CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LLJ SETS UP AND WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...SOME SHOW
ACTIVITY PLOWING RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS SHOW
THE NWRN THIRD OR SO WITH THE BEST CHANCES...AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. KEPT THE 50 POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT LEFT 20 TO 40 POPS
ELSEWHERE...WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
COMING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY/DEEPER LAYER SHEAR COMBO KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A CONCERN...WITH THE
CWA SITTING IN THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS. WIND/HAIL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...AND AT 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA.
AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY
E/SE...AND MODELS ARE NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
FRONT AT 12Z ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. BECAUSE THIS FRONT
HAS A BETTER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSH FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA. BY
18Z MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ALREADY OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
THIS FRONT WILL START TO USHER IN MUCH WELCOME DRIER DEWPOINTS
FROM NW/SE...THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD DROP IS LIKELY JUST AFTER
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD/...AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE.

KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS /THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE WONT BE ANY POST
12Z/...BUT ONCE THAT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST...ANY POPS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN AREAS.
ACTUALLY TRIMMED A LITTLE BIT MORE OFF THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
INHERITED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
FAR ENOUGH SE LIKE SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THOSE POPS COULD BE
REMOVED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR SYNOPTIC WEATHER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES THAT WILL
BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK
GIVING US WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY AND WILL ALLOW LOW-
AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TO POTENTIALLY GIVE US A SMALL SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE LONG
TERM...WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OTHERS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TUESDAY
NIGHT ROLLS AROUND. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WE MAY GET IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THEM MID 80S...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES.

BY THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW RETURNS AND A STEADY RISE IN DEWPOINTS
WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIZABLE
WAVES IN THE FORECAST TO GIVE US ANYTHING MORE THAN A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NOTHING PARTICULARLY STANDS OUT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING CLOUD BASES
TO REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO MORE THAN A
VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT. EXPECTING GUSTY SRLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE ON INTO THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFF TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. EVEN THOUGH GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A GOOD LLJ
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...AND KEPT THE LLWS MENTION GOING AT BOTH
TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 272013
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
313 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE AREA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SRN CONUS WHILE A
STORM SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. SITTING
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
RAIN TO MAINLY WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF THE OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS KEEPING THINGS CAPPED...THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HAVE BEEN DRY ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAKER PATTERN THIS
MORNING BROUGHT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...BUT AS THE DAY AS PASSED
AND THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE PLAINS...LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN MORE
SRLY FLOW...WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE.

KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND INCREASING
LARGER SCALE LIFT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE WEST...ALONG WITH
A HEALTHY LLJ DEVELOPING /MODELS GENERALLY ARND 50KTS/ WILL HELP
DRIVE THESE CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH WHERE THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE LLJ SETS UP AND WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...SOME SHOW
ACTIVITY PLOWING RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA...WHILE OTHERS SHOW
THE NWRN THIRD OR SO WITH THE BEST CHANCES...AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. KEPT THE 50 POPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT LEFT 20 TO 40 POPS
ELSEWHERE...WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
COMING HOURS. THE INSTABILITY/DEEPER LAYER SHEAR COMBO KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A CONCERN...WITH THE
CWA SITTING IN THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS. WIND/HAIL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...AND AT 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA.
AN ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY
E/SE...AND MODELS ARE NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
FRONT AT 12Z ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. BECAUSE THIS FRONT
HAS A BETTER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSH FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MAKE GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA. BY
18Z MODELS SHOW THE FRONT ALREADY OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
THIS FRONT WILL START TO USHER IN MUCH WELCOME DRIER DEWPOINTS
FROM NW/SE...THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD DROP IS LIKELY JUST AFTER
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD/...AND FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NW TO LOWER 90S IN THE SE.

KEPT SOME 20-30 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS /THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST THERE WONT BE ANY POST
12Z/...BUT ONCE THAT PASSES OFF TO THE EAST...ANY POPS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN AREAS.
ACTUALLY TRIMMED A LITTLE BIT MORE OFF THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
INHERITED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND IF THE FRONT CAN PUSH
FAR ENOUGH SE LIKE SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THOSE POPS COULD BE
REMOVED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DETERMINING TIMING AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR SYNOPTIC WEATHER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES THAT WILL
BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEK
GIVING US WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER JET AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY AND WILL ALLOW LOW-
AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TO POTENTIALLY GIVE US A SMALL SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE LONG
TERM...WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING MUCH
HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER OTHERS...OTHER THAN PERHAPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE THETA-E ADVECTION IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TUESDAY
NIGHT ROLLS AROUND. MOST OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WE MAY GET IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THEM MID 80S...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLES.

BY THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW RETURNS AND A STEADY RISE IN DEWPOINTS
WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIZABLE
WAVES IN THE FORECAST TO GIVE US ANYTHING MORE THAN A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. NOTHING PARTICULARLY STANDS OUT
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING CLOUD BASES
TO REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO MORE THAN A
VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT. EXPECTING GUSTY SRLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE ON INTO THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFF TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. EVEN THOUGH GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A GOOD LLJ
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...AND KEPT THE LLWS MENTION GOING AT BOTH
TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KLBF 271752
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A FRONT FROM A LOW ALONG
THE WYOMING-MONTANA LINE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
THERE WAS ALSO A LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A COUPLE OF
BOUNDARIES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS INDICATED THAT THE DRY LINE WAS
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE MSAS INDICATED THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WAS
JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE. THE RADAR WIND PROFILES SHOWED A NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN THEDFORD AND RAPID CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FEEDING MOISTURE INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...THUS STRENGTHENING THE THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG THE DRY LINE. CONVERGENCE IN THE THETA-E GRADIENT WILL
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING INTO THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. THE RAP13 AND GFS40 APPEAR TO FAVOR A LATER ONSET.
LOOKING AT THE 0-2KM THETA-E PROJECTIONS FROM THE THREE...IT
APPEARS THAT THE LATER TIMING MAY BE APPROPRIATE. STILL...THE
NAM12 SOLUTION CASTS ENOUGH DOUBT THAT I HAVE ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TODAY. IN ANY CASE...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT MUCH LIKE IT DID
YESTERDAY WITH THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
CURRENT IDEA IS TO USE A 2/3 BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
THE OTHER MODELS AND GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE RAP13 AND THE
CANADIAN REGIONAL. ANYWAY...THE SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND 0-6M BULK SHEAR FOR
LARGE HAIL OVER THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE MARGINAL CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OR NEARLY EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT AND
NOW LOOKS LIKE BY TUESDAY MORNING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE EAST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NICE DRY JULY DAY WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S. DECIDED WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TO GO ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

MODELS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH VERY DRY /FOR JULY/ AIR TO WORK IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. DEW PTS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL THE CWA. SOME MODELS EVEN BRING SOME UPPER 30S INTO THE
PANHANDLE. WITH THE DRY AIR...MOS GUIDANCE IS TANKING TEMPS. SEE
NO REASON WITH THE LOW DEW PTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE...WHY THIS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BE REACHED. RECORD LOWS FOR
WED /29TH/ ARE FAIRLY WARM WITH MOST IN THE UPPER 40S. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE BL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM SOME LIMITED PACIFIC MOISTURE TO SEE HOW LOW WE COULD FALL
TO. FOR EXAMPLE THE RECORD LOW FOR NORTH PLATTE IS ONLY 49
DEGREES...WHICH IS POSSIBLE. BOTH THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE DROPS
THE LOW TO 50.

WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE COOL WITH LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND
DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AS MORE ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS. SFC FRONT STALLED OVER KS SO EXPECTING ANOTHER DRY
DAY.

THIS CHANGES AS WE GO TO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THE
ZONAL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SEVERAL CLIPPERS
/SHORT WAVES/ TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS.
ALSO GOING TO SEE SW/S WINDS DEVELOP AND HELP TO RETURN THE
MOISTURE. TIMING EACH PASSING WAVE IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR
OUT...BUT EACH WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE AVIATION FORECAST...WE
ANTICIPATED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE
SIDE...FORMING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT STORM
INITIATION WILL OCCUR IN TWO FAVORED AREAS...OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THEN STORMS ARE SHOWN TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
BOTH KLBF AND KVTN. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
OF THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN. OTHERWISE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
IFR /OR LOWER/ VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING FOR A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS



000
FXUS63 KLBF 271752
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A FRONT FROM A LOW ALONG
THE WYOMING-MONTANA LINE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
THERE WAS ALSO A LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A COUPLE OF
BOUNDARIES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS INDICATED THAT THE DRY LINE WAS
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE MSAS INDICATED THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WAS
JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE. THE RADAR WIND PROFILES SHOWED A NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN THEDFORD AND RAPID CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FEEDING MOISTURE INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...THUS STRENGTHENING THE THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG THE DRY LINE. CONVERGENCE IN THE THETA-E GRADIENT WILL
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING INTO THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. THE RAP13 AND GFS40 APPEAR TO FAVOR A LATER ONSET.
LOOKING AT THE 0-2KM THETA-E PROJECTIONS FROM THE THREE...IT
APPEARS THAT THE LATER TIMING MAY BE APPROPRIATE. STILL...THE
NAM12 SOLUTION CASTS ENOUGH DOUBT THAT I HAVE ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TODAY. IN ANY CASE...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT MUCH LIKE IT DID
YESTERDAY WITH THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
CURRENT IDEA IS TO USE A 2/3 BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
THE OTHER MODELS AND GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE RAP13 AND THE
CANADIAN REGIONAL. ANYWAY...THE SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND 0-6M BULK SHEAR FOR
LARGE HAIL OVER THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE MARGINAL CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OR NEARLY EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT AND
NOW LOOKS LIKE BY TUESDAY MORNING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE EAST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NICE DRY JULY DAY WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S. DECIDED WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TO GO ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

MODELS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH VERY DRY /FOR JULY/ AIR TO WORK IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. DEW PTS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL THE CWA. SOME MODELS EVEN BRING SOME UPPER 30S INTO THE
PANHANDLE. WITH THE DRY AIR...MOS GUIDANCE IS TANKING TEMPS. SEE
NO REASON WITH THE LOW DEW PTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE...WHY THIS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BE REACHED. RECORD LOWS FOR
WED /29TH/ ARE FAIRLY WARM WITH MOST IN THE UPPER 40S. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE BL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM SOME LIMITED PACIFIC MOISTURE TO SEE HOW LOW WE COULD FALL
TO. FOR EXAMPLE THE RECORD LOW FOR NORTH PLATTE IS ONLY 49
DEGREES...WHICH IS POSSIBLE. BOTH THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE DROPS
THE LOW TO 50.

WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE COOL WITH LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND
DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AS MORE ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS. SFC FRONT STALLED OVER KS SO EXPECTING ANOTHER DRY
DAY.

THIS CHANGES AS WE GO TO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THE
ZONAL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SEVERAL CLIPPERS
/SHORT WAVES/ TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS.
ALSO GOING TO SEE SW/S WINDS DEVELOP AND HELP TO RETURN THE
MOISTURE. TIMING EACH PASSING WAVE IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR
OUT...BUT EACH WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE AVIATION FORECAST...WE
ANTICIPATED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE
SIDE...FORMING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT STORM
INITIATION WILL OCCUR IN TWO FAVORED AREAS...OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THEN STORMS ARE SHOWN TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
BOTH KLBF AND KVTN. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
OF THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN. OTHERWISE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
IFR /OR LOWER/ VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING FOR A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS




000
FXUS63 KGID 271746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MORNING HOURS...
A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT
REMAIN OF THE EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS STILL HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND WILL
KEEP POPS LOW THIS MORNING AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE 06Z NAM AND HRRR
AND THE 00Z GFS AND NMM-WRF ALL SHOW THAT POTENTIAL OF WEAK
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH
THIS MCS DIEING OUT SO QUICKLY AND THE ATMOSPHERE SO WORKED OVER
BY THE MCS...AM NOT READY TO BUY INTO MUCH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SEE A DRY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY FORM WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR THE COLORADO STATE LINE
WITH KANSAS AND NEBRASKA THE SAME AS YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 7 PM. THE BIG ISSUE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE THE STIFLING HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
UNLIKE LAST EVENING...THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM A NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH AND A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT
FURTHER EAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND GIVE THUNDERSTORMS A
BETTER CHANCE OF KEEPING THEIR INTENSITY/SEVERITY UP AS THEY ENTER
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...BUT EASTERN ZONES WILL ALSO SEE
A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING IN ON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTION LATER
TONIGHT THANKS TO THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT/ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
JET. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WHEN THE STORMS ARE AT THEIR
STRONGEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...CERTAINLY THE MOST NOTICEABLE
WEATHER "HIGHLIGHT" OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD APPEARS TO BE A
SEASONABLY DECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHORT OF 90
AND THUS BRINGING A MULTI-DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT INDEX VALUES
BREACHING THE 100-105+ THRESHOLD OF CONCERN.

PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM-WISE: OUT OF THESE 11 DAY/NIGHT
FORECAST PERIODS...ONLY 1 (WEDNESDAY DAYTIME) MAINTAINS AN
OFFICIAL "DRY" FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA (ESPECIALLY
NEB ZONES) ACTUALLY STANDS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY
DURING THE ENTIRE TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY DAYTIME TIME FRAME.
GETTING FARTHER OUT IN TIME INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIODS...AS IS TYPICAL AT THIS TIME RANGE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...VARIOUS...MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPAND TO INCLUDE A GREATER PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...EVEN SOME OF THESE LOWER-END CHANCES ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY "IFFY" FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND IT`S WAY TOO EARLY
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THEM. PUT ANOTHER WAY...THERE ARE JUST NO
PARTICULAR TIME FRAMES THAT STAND OUT AS HAVING A TRULY HEALTHY
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AT THIS TIME...JUST LOTS OF LOWER-
END...UNCERTAIN CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER-WISE...CANNOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNT A MARGINAL RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FLIRTING
WITH MAINLY THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTATION OF A
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE INVASION OF INCREASINGLY-STABLE AIR BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT...AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK IN
KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN THE REGION
FOCUSED JUST TO OUR SOUTH/EAST. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD...A RETURN
OF AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR COULD BRING AT LEAST A
LIMITED CHANCE OF STRONG- SEVERE BACK INTO THE PICTURE POTENTIALLY
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...BUT WEAK FORCING ARGUES THAT
PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE TO EVEN BEGIN
OFFERING ANY DETAILS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE: AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE...PROBABLY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE OF THE WEEK (IN THIS CASE A MODEST
COOL-DOWN) ARRIVES RIGHT AWAY TUESDAY BEHIND A SEASONABLY-DECENT
COLD FRONT...AND HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN GENERALLY 1-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MID-80S IN MOST NEB ZONES...BUT ONE
MORE DAY OF 90-95 HEAT IN KS ZONES THANKS TO A LATER ARRIVAL OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. FROM WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...A FAIRLY STEADY
TEMPERATURE REGIME IS THEN EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN NEBRASKA
GRADUALLY RISING BACK FROM THE MID-80S TO AROUND 90...AS KS ZONES
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S-MID 90S. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...TUESDAY NIGHT
APPEARS TO BE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN CWA DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.

NOW TAKING A FAIRLY BRIEF CLOSER LOOK AT DAY-TO-DAY EXPECTATIONS
IN MAINLY 24-48 HOUR BLOCKS:

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...FROM A SYNOPTIC
FORCING PERSPECTIVE THIS IS THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THESE 6
DAYS...AS A SEASONABLY-STOUT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CHURNS
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TOWARD ONTARIO...AND IN TURN DRIVES A
DECENT (BY JULY STANDARDS) SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA...MARKED BY A NOTICEABLE INVASION OF 10-20 MPH NORTH
WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON A RAPID
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST DECLINE...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
MORNING CONVECTION MAINLY IN EASTERN ZONES...AND THEN AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON-NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THESE POPS...AND VERY POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH...AS THE LATEST 00Z 4KM
WRF NMM/ARW DEPICT ESSENTIALLY KEEPING ALL AFTERNOON STORM
POTENTIAL AT LEAST SLIGHTLY EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: AS THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DEPART NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA...A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL WEAKLY-FORCED PATTERN ARRIVES...AS THE LOCAL AREA RESIDES
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS DAY`S COLD
FRONT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT AND THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AREA-WIDE DURING THE DAY...AND FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT: DURING THESE 48 HOURS...FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE
RETROGRADES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. AS
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS...SO DOES AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY AND THUS MORE BROAD-BRUSHED LOW-END POPS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME: THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY FEATURES
ONLY A SMATTERING OF SLIGHT CHANCE 20 POPS WITHIN VARIOUS PARTS OF
THE CWA...AND PER THE LATEST ECMWF...EVEN THIS MAY BE
GENEROUS MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF LIMITED WEEKEND CONVECTION. CERTAINLY NOTHING TO
HANG ONE`S HAT ON YET IN WHAT SHOULD BE A
WEAKLY-FORCED...NORTHWEST-FLOW ALOFT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING CLOUD BASES
TO REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO MORE THAN A
VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT. EXPECTING GUSTY SRLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE ON INTO THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFF TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. EVEN THOUGH GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A GOOD LLJ
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...AND KEPT THE LLWS MENTION GOING AT BOTH
TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 271746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MORNING HOURS...
A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT
REMAIN OF THE EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL FORECAST MODELS STILL HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND WILL
KEEP POPS LOW THIS MORNING AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE 06Z NAM AND HRRR
AND THE 00Z GFS AND NMM-WRF ALL SHOW THAT POTENTIAL OF WEAK
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH
THIS MCS DIEING OUT SO QUICKLY AND THE ATMOSPHERE SO WORKED OVER
BY THE MCS...AM NOT READY TO BUY INTO MUCH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SEE A DRY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY FORM WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NEAR THE COLORADO STATE LINE
WITH KANSAS AND NEBRASKA THE SAME AS YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 7 PM. THE BIG ISSUE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE THE STIFLING HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
UNLIKE LAST EVENING...THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM A NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH AND A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT
FURTHER EAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND GIVE THUNDERSTORMS A
BETTER CHANCE OF KEEPING THEIR INTENSITY/SEVERITY UP AS THEY ENTER
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...BUT EASTERN ZONES WILL ALSO SEE
A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING IN ON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTION LATER
TONIGHT THANKS TO THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT/ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
JET. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WHEN THE STORMS ARE AT THEIR
STRONGEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...CERTAINLY THE MOST NOTICEABLE
WEATHER "HIGHLIGHT" OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD APPEARS TO BE A
SEASONABLY DECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHORT OF 90
AND THUS BRINGING A MULTI-DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT INDEX VALUES
BREACHING THE 100-105+ THRESHOLD OF CONCERN.

PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM-WISE: OUT OF THESE 11 DAY/NIGHT
FORECAST PERIODS...ONLY 1 (WEDNESDAY DAYTIME) MAINTAINS AN
OFFICIAL "DRY" FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA (ESPECIALLY
NEB ZONES) ACTUALLY STANDS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY
DURING THE ENTIRE TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY DAYTIME TIME FRAME.
GETTING FARTHER OUT IN TIME INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIODS...AS IS TYPICAL AT THIS TIME RANGE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...VARIOUS...MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPAND TO INCLUDE A GREATER PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...EVEN SOME OF THESE LOWER-END CHANCES ARE
LOOKING FAIRLY "IFFY" FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND IT`S WAY TOO EARLY
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THEM. PUT ANOTHER WAY...THERE ARE JUST NO
PARTICULAR TIME FRAMES THAT STAND OUT AS HAVING A TRULY HEALTHY
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AT THIS TIME...JUST LOTS OF LOWER-
END...UNCERTAIN CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER-WISE...CANNOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNT A MARGINAL RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FLIRTING
WITH MAINLY THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTATION OF A
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE INVASION OF INCREASINGLY-STABLE AIR BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT...AGREE WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK IN
KEEPING THE VAST MAJORITY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN THE REGION
FOCUSED JUST TO OUR SOUTH/EAST. FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD...A RETURN
OF AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR COULD BRING AT LEAST A
LIMITED CHANCE OF STRONG- SEVERE BACK INTO THE PICTURE POTENTIALLY
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...BUT WEAK FORCING ARGUES THAT
PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE TO EVEN BEGIN
OFFERING ANY DETAILS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE: AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE...PROBABLY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE OF THE WEEK (IN THIS CASE A MODEST
COOL-DOWN) ARRIVES RIGHT AWAY TUESDAY BEHIND A SEASONABLY-DECENT
COLD FRONT...AND HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN GENERALLY 1-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MID-80S IN MOST NEB ZONES...BUT ONE
MORE DAY OF 90-95 HEAT IN KS ZONES THANKS TO A LATER ARRIVAL OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. FROM WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...A FAIRLY STEADY
TEMPERATURE REGIME IS THEN EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN NEBRASKA
GRADUALLY RISING BACK FROM THE MID-80S TO AROUND 90...AS KS ZONES
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S-MID 90S. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...TUESDAY NIGHT
APPEARS TO BE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN CWA DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.

NOW TAKING A FAIRLY BRIEF CLOSER LOOK AT DAY-TO-DAY EXPECTATIONS
IN MAINLY 24-48 HOUR BLOCKS:

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...FROM A SYNOPTIC
FORCING PERSPECTIVE THIS IS THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THESE 6
DAYS...AS A SEASONABLY-STOUT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CHURNS
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TOWARD ONTARIO...AND IN TURN DRIVES A
DECENT (BY JULY STANDARDS) SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA...MARKED BY A NOTICEABLE INVASION OF 10-20 MPH NORTH
WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON A RAPID
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST DECLINE...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
MORNING CONVECTION MAINLY IN EASTERN ZONES...AND THEN AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON-NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THESE POPS...AND VERY POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH...AS THE LATEST 00Z 4KM
WRF NMM/ARW DEPICT ESSENTIALLY KEEPING ALL AFTERNOON STORM
POTENTIAL AT LEAST SLIGHTLY EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: AS THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DEPART NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA...A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL WEAKLY-FORCED PATTERN ARRIVES...AS THE LOCAL AREA RESIDES
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS DAY`S COLD
FRONT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT AND THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AREA-WIDE DURING THE DAY...AND FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT: DURING THESE 48 HOURS...FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE
RETROGRADES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. AS
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS...SO DOES AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY AND THUS MORE BROAD-BRUSHED LOW-END POPS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY DAYTIME: THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY FEATURES
ONLY A SMATTERING OF SLIGHT CHANCE 20 POPS WITHIN VARIOUS PARTS OF
THE CWA...AND PER THE LATEST ECMWF...EVEN THIS MAY BE
GENEROUS MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF LIMITED WEEKEND CONVECTION. CERTAINLY NOTHING TO
HANG ONE`S HAT ON YET IN WHAT SHOULD BE A
WEAKLY-FORCED...NORTHWEST-FLOW ALOFT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...THOUGH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...BUT EXPECTING CLOUD BASES
TO REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO MORE THAN A
VCTS MENTION AT THIS POINT. EXPECTING GUSTY SRLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE ON INTO THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OFF TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. EVEN THOUGH GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A GOOD LLJ
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...AND KEPT THE LLWS MENTION GOING AT BOTH
TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KOAX 271732
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH SAME GENERAL CONCERNS OF
TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING WITH IR LOOP SHOWING WARMING TOPS ACROSS NEBRASKA. LATEST
RAP DECREASES AND ENDS CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME LINGERING SLIGHT POPS FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING
THEN DRY BY LATE TUEDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT
HEAT INDEX EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON OVER THE AREA UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA STILL
FEELING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN GENERAL TRENDS FROM PAST RUNS AS UPPER
HIGH CENTER RETROGRADES WEST AND TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
CHANCE OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SITES SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF PRECIPITATION OR LOWERED CEILINGS/VIS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
TONIGHT TO THE AREAS OF KOFK/KOMA AT LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE...BUT DID MAKE A BEST GUESS FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS TO AFFECT KOFK/KOMA JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. LEFT
KLNK DRY FOR NOW WITH EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ITS VICINITY. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
KOFK BY MID/LATE MORNING AND SHOULD JUST START TO AFFECT KLNK/KOMA
BY THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 271732
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH SAME GENERAL CONCERNS OF
TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING WITH IR LOOP SHOWING WARMING TOPS ACROSS NEBRASKA. LATEST
RAP DECREASES AND ENDS CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME LINGERING SLIGHT POPS FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING
THEN DRY BY LATE TUEDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT
HEAT INDEX EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON OVER THE AREA UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA STILL
FEELING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN GENERAL TRENDS FROM PAST RUNS AS UPPER
HIGH CENTER RETROGRADES WEST AND TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
CHANCE OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SITES SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF PRECIPITATION OR LOWERED CEILINGS/VIS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
TONIGHT TO THE AREAS OF KOFK/KOMA AT LEAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING AND COVERAGE...BUT DID MAKE A BEST GUESS FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS TO AFFECT KOFK/KOMA JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. LEFT
KLNK DRY FOR NOW WITH EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ITS VICINITY. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
KOFK BY MID/LATE MORNING AND SHOULD JUST START TO AFFECT KLNK/KOMA
BY THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES



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