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000
FXUS63 KLBF 250004
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
704 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT (6 PM MDT).
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW AT MANY LOCATIONS...WITH A GRADUAL
RECOVERY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS HAD DECREASED TO LESS THAN 10 MPH
IN MOST LOCATIONS...SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THERE ARE TWO MAIN PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH...THE FIRST IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE SECOND WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS PUT NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY...AS MOST OF THE
DAY SAW SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE SUNSHINE...GOOD SURFACE WARMING...AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH MIXED VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY
WINDS TO THE SURFACE. RED FLAG WARNING IS VERIFYING NICELY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS MOST
PLACES HAVE CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...FREQUENT WINDS TO OR ABOVE 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

WEAK SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AGAIN TO AROUND
750-700MB ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO PROMOTE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...TO NEAR 80 ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
VERY DRY AGAIN SO LITTLE IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER...WITH PERHAPS
ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. MORE
DETAILS ARE IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...

A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION GOING INTO
THE EXTENDED THAT MAY LEAD TO THE WEATHER PATTERN SLOWING. THE GFS
SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO GOOD THAT MAY BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN
POPS IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE...THEN TEMPERATURES BEYOND TUESDAY.

SATURDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS
BY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEND MUCH WARMER AIR NORTH...
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR LINGERING FIRE
CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE 80S THEN BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST HOWEVER
INSTABILITY IS LOOKING BETTER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES
THAT COULD RESULT IN NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY THAT
COULD CREATE IMPACTS FOR VEGETATION BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT AT 6 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER THIS EVENING...SO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LESSENED AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

FOR FRIDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT DEWPOINTS WON/T
GET AS LOW. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS /TO 750MB/ FROM THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW MINIMUM VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES
WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS IN ALL LEVELS OF THE MIXED
LAYER STAY AT 10KTS OR LESS. IF AREAS ARE ABLE TO MIX HIGHER...TO
700MB OR ABOVE...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EXIST /UP TO 25KTS/.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW...LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER DANGER BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE MID 80S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME WINDS DON/T LOOK TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS SPEEDS OF 15 TO
20KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...ROBERG







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000
FXUS63 KGID 250000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A
LINE FROM ORD TO LEXINGTON TO CAMBRIDGE WHERE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND FUELS ARE FAVORABLE DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS/LACK OF RAINFALL.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DROPPING OFF BY EVENING.

ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART THE PLAINS TONIGHT
WITH HEIGHTS RISING INTO FRIDAY WITH SUBTLE RIDGING SETTLING ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT AND WITH GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS WE ARE LOOKING AT CHILLY TEMPS FOR LOWS...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S WHICH ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 17-18C WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP MIXING
ABOVE THIS LEVEL. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.  ALSO SOMETHING TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TO BE SNEAKY BREEZY DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND EDGES EASTWARD...ALONG WITH THE DEEP MIXING
PROGGED. HAVE INCREASED WINDS ON FRIDAY AND WE ARE EDGING CLOSER TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
PROGGED IN THE LOW 20TH PERCENTILE.  WILL HOLD OFF ON NEAR FIRE
WEATHER MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW WITH WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
MARGINAL AND WE STILL HAVE WET GROUND FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL BUT
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS PROVING TO MAKE FOR A VERY
COMPLEX...CHALLENGING FORECAST...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A FAIRLY CLASSIC...VERY
DEEP/DYNAMIC SPRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY SWINGING OUT OF
THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS IN A
VIGOROUS...NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION AND THEN STALLING
OUT/MEANDERING AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS THEREAFTER. AS A RESULT OF
THIS SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW HAS 9 CONSECUTIVE PERIODS
BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY THAT CONTAIN AT LEAST AT
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE
CWA. OF COURSE...ITS UNLIKELY THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON
ALL OF THESE DAYS/NIGHTS...SO THERE IS A LOT OF FINE-TUNING TO DO
HERE. TEMPERATURE-WISE...CONFIDENCE AS USUAL IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN WITH PRECIPITATION...AND WE CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT SATURDAY WILL NOW IN FACT BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THESE 6 WITH UPPER 70S-UPPER 80S...WHILE A DECENT COOL-DOWN
FEATURING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MID
50S-LOW 60S SETTLES IN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE
SLOW-MOVING UPPER SYSTEM KEEPS LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS TIME.

GETTING INTO HAZARDS POTENTIAL AND STARTING WITH THE PARAMOUNT
CONCERN OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THIS POSSIBILITY IS AS COMPLEX
AS ANY ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST. ON PAPER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS BY SPC ON BOTH SATURDAY (DAY 3) AND SUNDAY (DAY 4).
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE LATEST 12Z/18Z MODELS INCLUDING THE
NAM/ECMWF ARE QUITE HESITANT IN EVEN DEVELOPING ROBUST CONVECTION
WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...INSTEAD
FOCUSING THE MAIN THREAT AREA JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND/OR
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. THEN FOR
SUNDAY...THERE ARE INCREASING SIGNALS THAT A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD
SHUT DOWN ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE NORTH/NORTHEAST AREAS COULD
BE SETTING UP FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF BUT ACTIVE BOUT OF SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS SOME SORT OF EAST-WEST OR
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE
AREA...EXTENDING FROM A LIKELY VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE ORDER OF 983 MILLIBARS THAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA OR NEAR THE
NEB/KS/CO BORDER AT MID-DAY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME IS ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAY...ITS JUST TOO SOON YET TO
REALLY GAUGE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...AND AS A RESULT THINGS HAVE BEEN KEPT PRETTY VAGUE TO
THIS POINT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWO).
HOWEVER...FROM A PURELY SYNOPTIC PATTERN STANDPOINT...ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE A
PREDOMINANTLY HAIL/WIND THREAT...WHILE STORMS ON SUNDAY ALONG THE
WARM FRONT AND JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE DRYLINE COULD CARRY AT
LEAST SOME BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL. SO MUCH DEPENDS ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF BOUNDARIES...POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS
CONVECTION...ETC. AND ITS JUST TOO SOON TO SAY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

AS FOR OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS DURING THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...ANYTIME
THERE IS A SURFACE LOW IN THE REGION AS STRONG AS THE ONE SETTLING
IN THIS WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY PASSING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS USUALLY A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR AT LEAST ONE
ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND EVENT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30 MPH OR
HIGHER AND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. OF COURSE...MOST
MODELS/GUIDANCE DON/T START RAMPING UP WIND SPEEDS TO SOLIDLY
ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL THE DAY 2-3 TIME FRAME AT THE EARLIEST...SO
AS A RESULT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ONLY A LIMITED COVERAGE OF
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY
THAT OVER THE COMING DAYS SPEEDS WILL BE TRENDED UP EVEN MORE. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...THE HWO MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL
MAINLY DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST ON THE HAZARD FRONT...NOW THAT THE WEEKEND IS
TRENDING CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED A FEW DAYS AGO...AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER COULD ALSO COME INTO PLAY ON BOTH
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AFTERNOONS JUST BEHIND THE PROMINENT DRYLINE
EXPECTED TO SET UP IN/NEAR MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ALTHOUGH BOTH WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SUPPORT NEAR-
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL THREAT...HAVE REFRAINED FROM AN HWO MENTION
OF FIRE DANGER AT THIS TIME DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES ON
VEGETATIVE FUEL STATUS GIVEN THE RECENT...DECENT RAINFALL AND
SPRING GREEN-UP...AND WE MAY BE CHECKING WITH AREA FIRE MANAGERS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO GET A BETTER IDEA OF HOW FIRE-PRONE WE
REALLY MIGHT BE. AS FOR POTENTIAL FROST-FREEZE CONCERNS...THE
7-DAY FORECAST REMAINS VOID OF ANY OBVIOUS ISSUES...AT LEAST FOR
NOW...AS EVEN THE COOLEST NIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECAST INTO/NEAR THE UPPER 30S MAY HAVE TOO MUCH WIND
TO PROMOTE FROST FORMATION.

GETTING INTO SOME DETAILS IN GENERALLY 1-2 DAY BLOCKS...

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A DRY NIGHT...DESPITE
WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY RETURNING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA
ALONG A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS INSTABILITY APPEARS
CAPPED LOCALLY...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREAS FAVORED TO BE WELL
NORTH ACROSS SD AND POSSIBLY ALSO INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS WITH LOWS UPPER 40S-MID 50S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...THERE IS A
BOATLOAD OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER CONVECTION/POTENTIALLY SEVERE/
DEVELOPS OR NOT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS THAT THE POWERFUL VORT MAX IN THE BASE OF
THE PARENT 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN CAL
AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING...TO NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...SWINGING OUT IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION. THE
ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL CRANK UP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOCALLY...BUT WITH THE PRIMARY DRYLINE/INSTABILITY AXIS
LOOKING TO SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND WITH LARGE SCALE
FORCING NOT OVERLY STRONG...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING TO
HOLD LOCAL CONVECTION AT BAY. IF STORMS DO FORM...AS THE GFS
SUGGESTS DURING THE EVENING...SEVER POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE
WITH 1500 J/KG CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 40KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. TEMP-WISE SATURDAY...HIGHS WERE CHANGED LITTLE...BUT HAVE
SURE TRENDED UPWARD SINCE A FEW DAYS AGO...AIMED FROM UPPER 70S
NORTH TO MID-UPPER 80S SOUTH...AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE WARM
ENOUGH IN KS ZONES IF DRY AIR SURGES IN.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ALREADY ALSO COVERED THE VERY
DYNAMIC...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB IN SOME WAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEARBY. IN SOME WAYS...THIS COULD AT LEAST RESEMBLE A COLD-CORE
SEVERE WEATHER SETUP...AND AGAIN WILL REALLY HAVE TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LIKELY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED INSTABILITY
AXIS...THAT IS MOST FAVORED TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE ON HIGH TEMPS IS LOW...AS SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST
AREAS ESPECIALLY COULD END UP QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW NUDGED UP MOST AREAS INTO THE 72-75 RANGE.
ALTHOUGH ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY END BY EVENING AS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOOTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...HAVE LINGERED AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED AND POSSIBLY OVERDONE NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
RISK INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY DAYTIME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME
CONTINUES WITH A SMATTERING OF 20-50 POPS...WHICH SHOULD MAINLY BE
JUST RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE VERY SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WALLOW AROUND THE REGION AND EVEN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ONLY REACH A POSITION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
IA AREA. AS THE SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVES EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST ONE ROUND OF ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND COMES INTO
PLAY...LIKELY FAVORING TUESDAY. TEMPS ON BOTH OF THESE DAYS
CHANGED LITTLE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 60 MONDAY AND
GENERALLY MID 50S TUES.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH THURSDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN THE PLETHORA OF POPS ALREADY
IN THE FORECAST DECIDED TO LEAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY VOID OF
PRECIP CHANCES AT LEAST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH ITS NO GUARANTEE TO
STAY THAT WAY DEPENDING ON HOW SLOWLY THE SYSTEM DEPARTS ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPS PRELIMINARILY AIMED
ONLY INTO THE MID 50S-NEAR 60 EACH DAY...A TOUCH ON THE COOL SIDE
FOR THE OPENING OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

WIND WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE FRIDAY...WIND
GUSTS WILL RETURN...BUT PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS WINDY AS TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039-046-060-
     072-082.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



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000
FXUS63 KOAX 242343
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
643 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB CHART FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT
FALLS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. STRONGEST
FALLS WERE NOTED IN TWO AREAS...ONE OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND ANOTHER
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME PCPN...MAINLY LIGHT...HAS LINGERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 6 PM OR SO AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TONIGHTS
FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. SOME FOG MAY OCCUR DUE TO WET GROUND
FROM RECENT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS NORTHERN
ZONES AND MODEST WINDS SOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS FROM 75 TO 80. A LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
850 MB MOISTURE. BEST BET FOR ANY STORMS THOUGH APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS OR WESTERN MISSOURI. DECIDED TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS FOR
SATURDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES ARE BETTER SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW 850 MB DEWPOINTS RISING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES C OR MORE
BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG
(GFS) OR EVEN HIGHER FROM THE NAM (3500 J/KG). BELIEVE THE GFS IS
HANDLING THIS BETTER AND THAT THE NAM IS JUST TOO DRY WITH QPF
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE POPS FROM 30 TO 60 PERCENT DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT.

CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WILL STILL BE BACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AT 00Z SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER REGION BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY SEEMS A BIT
HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...BUT TIMING AND DETAILS ON THIS ARE STILL
TO BE WORKED OUT. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER
SUNDAY BUT STILL APPEAR ADEQUATE FOR MINI SUPERCELLS ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IT APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO CUT BACK RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA. PCPN MAY BE STILL ONGOING IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.

CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT WEEK IS
LOW...BUT IT DOES LOOK AT LEAST SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. DEEP MOISTURE
AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LACKING THOUGH...SO THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH. THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL AND MORE BLOCKY. TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY HIGHS...WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
PCPN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY 20 TO 50 PERCENT...AND HOPEFULLY ALL
OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 26/00Z. WINDS
SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS ERN NEBR. NORFOLK SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE OF A VARIABLE
DIRECTIONS LIKELY AT THAT SITE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 242320
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THERE ARE TWO MAIN PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH...THE FIRST IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE SECOND WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS PUT NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY...AS MOST OF THE
DAY SAW SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE SUNSHINE...GOOD SURFACE WARMING...AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH MIXED VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY
WINDS TO THE SURFACE. RED FLAG WARNING IS VERIFYING NICELY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS MOST
PLACES HAVE CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...FREQUENT WINDS TO OR ABOVE 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

WEAK SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AGAIN TO AROUND
750-700MB ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO PROMOTE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...TO NEAR 80 ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
VERY DRY AGAIN SO LITTLE IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER...WITH PERHAPS
ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. MORE
DETAILS ARE IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...

A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION GOING INTO
THE EXTENDED THAT MAY LEAD TO THE WEATHER PATTERN SLOWING. THE GFS
SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO GOOD THAT MAY BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN
POPS IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE...THEN TEMPERATURES BEYOND TUESDAY.

SATURDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS
BY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEND MUCH WARMER AIR NORTH...
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR LINGERING FIRE
CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE 80S THEN BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST HOWEVER
INSTABILITY IS LOOKING BETTER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES
THAT COULD RESULT IN NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY THAT
COULD CREATE IMPACTS FOR VEGETATION BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT AT 6 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER THIS EVENING...SO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LESSENED AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

FOR FRIDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT DEWPOINTS WON/T
GET AS LOW. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS /TO 750MB/ FROM THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW MINIMUM VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES
WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS IN ALL LEVELS OF THE MIXED
LAYER STAY AT 10KTS OR LESS. IF AREAS ARE ABLE TO MIX HIGHER...TO
700MB OR ABOVE...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EXIST /UP TO 25KTS/.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW...LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER DANGER BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE MID 80S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME WINDS DON/T LOOK TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS SPEEDS OF 15 TO
20KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KGID 242122
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
422 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A
LINE FROM ORD TO LEXINGTON TO CAMBRIDGE WHERE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND FUELS ARE FAVORABLE DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS/LACK OF RAINFALL.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DROPPING OFF BY EVENING.

ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART THE PLAINS TONIGHT
WITH HEIGHTS RISING INTO FRIDAY WITH SUBTLE RIDGING SETTLING ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT AND WITH GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS WE ARE LOOKING AT CHILLY TEMPS FOR LOWS...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S WHICH ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY SEASONAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS ARE
PROGGED AROUND 17-18C WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP MIXING
ABOVE THIS LEVEL. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.  ALSO SOMETHING TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TO BE SNEAKY BREEZY DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND EDGES EASTWARD...ALONG WITH THE DEEP MIXING
PROGGED. HAVE INCREASED WINDS ON FRIDAY AND WE ARE EDGING CLOSER TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
PROGGED IN THE LOW 20TH PERCENTILE.  WILL HOLD OFF ON NEAR FIRE
WEATHER MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW WITH WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
MARGINAL AND WE STILL HAVE WET GROUND FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL BUT
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS PROVING TO MAKE FOR A VERY
COMPLEX...CHALLENGING FORECAST...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A FAIRLY CLASSIC...VERY
DEEP/DYNAMIC SPRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY SWINGING OUT OF
THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS IN A
VIGOROUS...NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION AND THEN STALLING
OUT/MEANDERING AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS THEREAFTER. AS A RESULT OF
THIS SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW HAS 9 CONSECUTIVE PERIODS
BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY THAT CONTAIN AT LEAST AT
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE
CWA. OF COURSE...ITS UNLIKELY THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON
ALL OF THESE DAYS/NIGHTS...SO THERE IS A LOT OF FINE-TUNING TO DO
HERE. TEMPERATURE-WISE...CONFIDENCE AS USUAL IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN WITH PRECIPITATION...AND WE CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT SATURDAY WILL NOW IN FACT BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THESE 6 WITH UPPER 70S-UPPER 80S...WHILE A DECENT COOL-DOWN
FEATURING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MID
50S-LOW 60S SETTLES IN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE
SLOW-MOVING UPPER SYSTEM KEEPS LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS TIME.

GETTING INTO HAZARDS POTENTIAL AND STARTING WITH THE PARAMOUNT
CONCERN OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THIS POSSIBILITY IS AS COMPLEX
AS ANY ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST. ON PAPER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS BY SPC ON BOTH SATURDAY (DAY 3) AND SUNDAY (DAY 4).
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE LATEST 12Z/18Z MODELS INCLUDING THE
NAM/ECMWF ARE QUITE HESITANT IN EVEN DEVELOPING ROBUST CONVECTION
WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...INSTEAD
FOCUSING THE MAIN THREAT AREA JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND/OR
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. THEN FOR
SUNDAY...THERE ARE INCREASING SIGNALS THAT A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD
SHUT DOWN ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE NORTH/NORTHEAST AREAS COULD
BE SETTING UP FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF BUT ACTIVE BOUT OF SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS SOME SORT OF EAST-WEST OR
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE
AREA...EXTENDING FROM A LIKELY VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE ORDER OF 983 MILLIBARS THAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA OR NEAR THE
NEB/KS/CO BORDER AT MID-DAY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME IS ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAY...ITS JUST TOO SOON YET TO
REALLY GAUGE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...AND AS A RESULT THINGS HAVE BEEN KEPT PRETTY VAGUE TO
THIS POINT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWO).
HOWEVER...FROM A PURELY SYNOPTIC PATTERN STANDPOINT...ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE A
PREDOMINANTLY HAIL/WIND THREAT...WHILE STORMS ON SUNDAY ALONG THE
WARM FRONT AND JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE DRYLINE COULD CARRY AT
LEAST SOME BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL. SO MUCH DEPENDS ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF BOUNDARIES...POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF PREVIOUS
CONVECTION...ETC. AND ITS JUST TOO SOON TO SAY HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

AS FOR OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS DURING THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...ANYTIME
THERE IS A SURFACE LOW IN THE REGION AS STRONG AS THE ONE SETTLING
IN THIS WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY PASSING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THERE IS USUALLY A PRETTY GOOD BET FOR AT LEAST ONE
ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND EVENT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30 MPH OR
HIGHER AND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. OF COURSE...MOST
MODELS/GUIDANCE DON/T START RAMPING UP WIND SPEEDS TO SOLIDLY
ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL THE DAY 2-3 TIME FRAME AT THE EARLIEST...SO
AS A RESULT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ONLY A LIMITED COVERAGE OF
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY
THAT OVER THE COMING DAYS SPEEDS WILL BE TRENDED UP EVEN MORE. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...THE HWO MENTIONS STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND POTENTIAL
MAINLY DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME FRAME AND STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST ON THE HAZARD FRONT...NOW THAT THE WEEKEND IS
TRENDING CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED A FEW DAYS AGO...AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER COULD ALSO COME INTO PLAY ON BOTH
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AFTERNOONS JUST BEHIND THE PROMINENT DRYLINE
EXPECTED TO SET UP IN/NEAR MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ALTHOUGH BOTH WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SUPPORT NEAR-
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL THREAT...HAVE REFRAINED FROM AN HWO MENTION
OF FIRE DANGER AT THIS TIME DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES ON
VEGETATIVE FUEL STATUS GIVEN THE RECENT...DECENT RAINFALL AND
SPRING GREEN-UP...AND WE MAY BE CHECKING WITH AREA FIRE MANAGERS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO GET A BETTER IDEA OF HOW FIRE-PRONE WE
REALLY MIGHT BE. AS FOR POTENTIAL FROST-FREEZE CONCERNS...THE
7-DAY FORECAST REMAINS VOID OF ANY OBVIOUS ISSUES...AT LEAST FOR
NOW...AS EVEN THE COOLEST NIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS FORECAST INTO/NEAR THE UPPER 30S MAY HAVE TOO MUCH WIND
TO PROMOTE FROST FORMATION.

GETTING INTO SOME DETAILS IN GENERALLY 1-2 DAY BLOCKS...

FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A DRY NIGHT...DESPITE
WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY RETURNING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA
ALONG A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS INSTABILITY APPEARS
CAPPED LOCALLY...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREAS FAVORED TO BE WELL
NORTH ACROSS SD AND POSSIBLY ALSO INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS WITH LOWS UPPER 40S-MID 50S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...THERE IS A
BOATLOAD OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER CONVECTION/POTENTIALLY SEVERE/
DEVELOPS OR NOT. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS THAT THE POWERFUL VORT MAX IN THE BASE OF
THE PARENT 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN CAL
AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING...TO NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...SWINGING OUT IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION. THE
ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL CRANK UP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOCALLY...BUT WITH THE PRIMARY DRYLINE/INSTABILITY AXIS
LOOKING TO SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND WITH LARGE SCALE
FORCING NOT OVERLY STRONG...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING TO
HOLD LOCAL CONVECTION AT BAY. IF STORMS DO FORM...AS THE GFS
SUGGESTS DURING THE EVENING...SEVER POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE
WITH 1500 J/KG CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 40KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. TEMP-WISE SATURDAY...HIGHS WERE CHANGED LITTLE...BUT HAVE
SURE TRENDED UPWARD SINCE A FEW DAYS AGO...AIMED FROM UPPER 70S
NORTH TO MID-UPPER 80S SOUTH...AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE WARM
ENOUGH IN KS ZONES IF DRY AIR SURGES IN.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ALREADY ALSO COVERED THE VERY
DYNAMIC...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB IN SOME WAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NEARBY. IN SOME WAYS...THIS COULD AT LEAST RESEMBLE A COLD-CORE
SEVERE WEATHER SETUP...AND AGAIN WILL REALLY HAVE TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LIKELY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED INSTABILITY
AXIS...THAT IS MOST FAVORED TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. CONFIDENCE ON HIGH TEMPS IS LOW...AS SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST
AREAS ESPECIALLY COULD END UP QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW NUDGED UP MOST AREAS INTO THE 72-75 RANGE.
ALTHOUGH ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY END BY EVENING AS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOOTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...HAVE LINGERED AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED AND POSSIBLY OVERDONE NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
RISK INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY DAYTIME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME
CONTINUES WITH A SMATTERING OF 20-50 POPS...WHICH SHOULD MAINLY BE
JUST RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...THE VERY SLOW MOVING MID-UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WALLOW AROUND THE REGION AND EVEN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ONLY REACH A POSITION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
IA AREA. AS THE SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVES EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST ONE ROUND OF ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND COMES INTO
PLAY...LIKELY FAVORING TUESDAY. TEMPS ON BOTH OF THESE DAYS
CHANGED LITTLE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 60 MONDAY AND
GENERALLY MID 50S TUES.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME THROUGH THURSDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN THE PLETHORA OF POPS ALREADY
IN THE FORECAST DECIDED TO LEAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY VOID OF
PRECIP CHANCES AT LEAST FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH ITS NO GUARANTEE TO
STAY THAT WAY DEPENDING ON HOW SLOWLY THE SYSTEM DEPARTS ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH TEMPS PRELIMINARILY AIMED
ONLY INTO THE MID 50S-NEAR 60 EACH DAY...A TOUCH ON THE COOL SIDE
FOR THE OPENING OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OR CLOUD COVER
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE BY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION SW ON FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039-046-060-
     072-082.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 242112
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
412 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THERE ARE TWO MAIN PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH...THE FIRST IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE SECOND WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS PUT NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY...AS MOST OF THE
DAY SAW SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE SUNSHINE...GOOD SURFACE WARMING...AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH MIXED VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY
WINDS TO THE SURFACE. RED FLAG WARNING IS VERIFYING NICELY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS MOST
PLACES HAVE CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...FREQUENT WINDS TO OR ABOVE 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

WEAK SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AGAIN TO AROUND
750-700MB ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO PROMOTE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...TO NEAR 80 ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
VERY DRY AGAIN SO LITTLE IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER...WITH PERHAPS
ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. MORE
DETAILS ARE IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...

A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION GOING INTO
THE EXTENDED THAT MAY LEAD TO THE WEATHER PATTERN SLOWING. THE GFS
SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO GOOD THAT MAY BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN
POPS IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE...THEN TEMPERATURES BEYOND TUESDAY.

SATURDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS
BY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEND MUCH WARMER AIR NORTH...
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR LINGERING FIRE
CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE 80S THEN BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST HOWEVER
INSTABILITY IS LOOKING BETTER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES
THAT COULD RESULT IN NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY THAT
COULD CREATE IMPACTS FOR VEGETATION BY THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER THIS EVENING...SO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LESSENED AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

FOR FRIDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT DEWPOINTS WON/T
GET AS LOW. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS /TO 750MB/ FROM THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW MINIMUM VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES
WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS IN ALL LEVELS OF THE MIXED
LAYER STAY AT 10KTS OR LESS. IF AREAS ARE ABLE TO MIX HIGHER...TO
700MB OR ABOVE...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EXIST /UP TO 25KTS/.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW...LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER DANGER BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE MID 80S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME WINDS DON/T LOOK TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS SPEEDS OF 15 TO
20KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT
/6PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION....BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KOAX 242010
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE 500 MB CHART FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT
FALLS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. STRONGEST
FALLS WERE NOTED IN TWO AREAS...ONE OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND ANOTHER
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME PCPN...MAINLY LIGHT...HAS LINGERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 6 PM OR SO AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TONIGHTS
FORECAST. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. SOME FOG MAY OCCUR DUE TO WET GROUND
FROM RECENT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS NORTHERN
ZONES AND MODEST WINDS SOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS FROM 75 TO 80. A LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
850 MB MOISTURE. BEST BET FOR ANY STORMS THOUGH APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS OR WESTERN MISSOURI. DECIDED TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS FOR
SATURDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES ARE BETTER SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOW 850 MB DEWPOINTS RISING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES C OR MORE
BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG
(GFS) OR EVEN HIGHER FROM THE NAM (3500 J/KG). BELIEVE THE GFS IS
HANDLING THIS BETTER AND THAT THE NAM IS JUST TOO DRY WITH QPF
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE POPS FROM 30 TO 60 PERCENT DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT.

CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WILL STILL BE BACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AT 00Z SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER REGION BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT ON SUNDAY SEEMS A BIT
HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...BUT TIMING AND DETAILS ON THIS ARE STILL
TO BE WORKED OUT. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER
SUNDAY BUT STILL APPEAR ADEQUATE FOR MINI SUPERCELLS ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IT APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO CUT BACK RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA. PCPN MAY BE STILL ONGOING IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.

CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT WEEK IS
LOW...BUT IT DOES LOOK AT LEAST SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. DEEP MOISTURE
AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE LACKING THOUGH...SO THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH. THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL AND MORE BLOCKY. TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY HIGHS...WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
PCPN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY 20 TO 50 PERCENT...AND HOPEFULLY ALL
OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS...VARIABLE AT 10 TO 20KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 241816
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
116 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MORNING UPDATE HELD ON TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE MID-LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO WORK
IT/S WAY EAST OF THE AREA. MUCH DRIER AIR AND NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RAIN COMPLEX OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH RADAR LOOP SHOWING
TREND OF MORE EASTERLY MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST HOUR. COLD FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING
FOLLOWS BEHIND THE THE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND
MILD CONDITIONS.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY WITH
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
SOUTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE 80S IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS CUT OFF UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND TAKE THEIR TIME MOVING OUT OF
THE REGION. BROAD UPPER CIRCULATION DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH PRETTY COLD AIR GETTING PULLED INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS HOWEVER SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FROST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS...VARIABLE AT 10 TO 20KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KGID 241718
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1218 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY TODAY IN OUR W/NW
ZONES IN THE DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH
YESTERDAY. THESE WESTERN AREAS DID NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT AND FUELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER GROWTH. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING AND
GIVEN THE DRY...WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE WENT AHEAD WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM ORD TO LEXINGTON TO
CAMBRIDGE NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

CONTINUING TO SEE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WHICH BROUGHT
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO
DRIVE THIS PRECIPITATION THOUGH WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY
LEFT...WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING IT SHIFTING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA...WITH ALL BUT FAR ERN PORTIONS
HAVING SEEN THEIR WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE GOING TO LINGER ON FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE
HOURS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES EAST...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THINGS
DRYING OUT BY MID MORNING. THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS DRY...WITH SHORTWAVE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN...SET UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM AND ANOTHER MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST.

EXPECTING TO SEE DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...THOUGH DID SLOW THE
CLEARING DOWN A TOUCH...AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN DECK IS JUST
NOW GETTING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. THE NW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
MORNING. SHOULD SEE SPEEDS START TO DIMINISH DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL REMAINS GOOD...THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS TO TAP INTO STARTS TO GO AWAY. STILL GOING TO SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS WORK ITS WAY IN...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY. SAME GOES WITH HIGHS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
TODAYS CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WARM AND DRY FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A VERY LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR THOSE
THAT HAVE STARTED SPRING PLANTING AND ARE WATCHING OUT FOR
FROST...TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A TIME FRAME TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

FRIDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER...BUT EVEN THAT IS
A RATHER LIMITED CONCERN. THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF OUR CWA AND BELOW THE 25 MPH WIND GUST CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS. EASTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO NEAR 25 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
20 MPH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY AS A SFC LOW STRENGTHS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE LOW AS WE DO NOT START
ADVECTION APPRECIABLE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND ACROSS WESTERN ZONES MAY ONLY BE AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OF LITTLE CONCERN. THE AREAS OF STRONGEST
WIND ACROSS OUR EAST ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY SEEING RAIN AND WILL
LIKELY HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF 0.40 TO OVER 1.00 INCH BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...AM NOT OVERLY
ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT.

SATURDAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THE DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM WILL STILL BE WELL OFF TO OUR WEST. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AREAS IF THE CAP CAN BREAK...BUT THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...WITH EASTERN ZONES
CURRENTLY THE MORE FAVORED AREA.

SUNDAY...A VERY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH A DEEP
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL ENTER THE PLAINS. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND WHERE THE BOUNDARIES ALL SET UP
INCLUDING MOST ESPECIALLY THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL SET UP MAKING CONFIDENCE A BIT LOW. THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL
RUNS QUICKLY PUSH THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE THROUGH MOST OF OUR
AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A DRY SLOT AND NOT
MUCH PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR MAYBE OUR FAR NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN BY EVEN 6
HOURS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO CUT OFF AND
ESSENTIALLY STALL OUT OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT LEAST FAIR IF NOT
GOOD IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS CUT OFF LOW AND THUS WILL BE
CALLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN. WE
WILL BE GETTING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS WE GET INTO THE AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S MAY BE TOO WARM AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
US STUCK IN THE 40S WITH SOME MODELS EVEN INDICATING WIDESPREAD
COLD RAIN AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THIS LATE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PHASE THE STALLED LOW
OVER THE PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH
DUMBBELLS THE COLDER GREAT LAKES AIR INTO OUR REGION. WE MAY BE
TOO WARM WITH LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER. MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FROST/FREEZE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. A LOT WILL RIDE ON IF THE
GREAT LAKES SYSTEM CAN REALLY PHASE IN WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SYSTEM. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE -24C RANGE. INSTABILITY SHOWERS...NOT CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST...WOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OR CLOUD COVER
WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE BY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION SW ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

STILL LOOKING AT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
TEEN TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THANKS TO THE
COMBO OF TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S/NEAR 70 AND MANY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR RH VALUES
FALLING TO/BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS IS ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE OF
THE CWA...WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE AN AREA THAT MISSED OUT ON THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION LAST EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS EAST
OF THERE HAD NOTABLE RAINFALL...AND FORECAST DEWPOINTS FOR THE
MOST PART REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT. THE BIG QUESTION LIES WITH
WINDS. MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 AND GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...AS WE GET INTO THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WHEN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT THEIR
LOWEST...THOSE SAME MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SFC WINDS
TAPERING OFF LIKELY BELOW 20 MPH...AND WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER DIMINISHING ENOUGH THAT GETTING GUSTS AT/ABOVE 25 MPH
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAD CONSIDERED A HEADLINE FOR
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS...BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RH/WIND
COMBO BEING MET FOR 3HRS...HELD OFF. WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY
SHIFT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039-046-060-
     072-082.

KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY
FIRE WEATHER...ADO




000
FXUS63 KLBF 241700
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1200 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

UPDATED FORECAST FOR MAINLY FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS. BASED ON RAPID
CITYS UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL...LOWERED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. THE WINDS
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING ALSO. HOWEVER...WINDS
MAY DROP OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPDATED OTHER FIRE WEATHER
ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA INCLUDING HAINES...MIXING
HEIGHT...TRANSPORT WINDS...AND VENTILATION RATE/SMOKE DISPERSAL.
PUBLIC FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
LIGHTNING WAS AROUND 05Z. FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE
CLEARED FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. BIG WINNERS TONIGHT WERE GARFIELD
AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING FOR THE NEAR TERM.
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F DEGREES COOLER TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FROM THE PANHANDLE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS HAVE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY BUT CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS. FULL SUN EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. FRIDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 24/00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE STORM NORTH...WITH A NEARLY STACKED H5/H7
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED INVOF NORTHEAST COLORADO OR WESTERN
NEBRASKA AT 00Z MONDAY 28TH APRIL. GEFS ALSO CLUSTERING A AN H5
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SAME AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE GEFS
ALL INDICATE A VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW /NEAR 983MB/ IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA. THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WITH UNMODIFIED
RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
SPELLS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS. THE
CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS WILL BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT...THAT WILL
IMPACT SOME PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH TONIGHTS NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THIS DRY SLOT WOULD IMPACT PART OR ALL OF
THE NWS NORTH PLATTE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT
BEING SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVING NETWORK. THEREFORE AM
HESITANT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK IN FUTURE RUNS...THEN
WILL HAVE TO WARM HIGHS AND CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED FROM THIS
LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM. HOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES COULD
BE QUITE INTERESTING. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST 24/00Z ECMWF DUMBBELLS
A SECOND UPPER LOW WESTWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...EVENTUALLY MERGING
THE TWO SYSTEM TOGETHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SENDING A LARGE
SHIELD OF RAIN WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE
SCENARIO. FOR NOW...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL ALL PAN
OUT...AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS. GARFIELD...WHEELER
AND SOUTHERN HOLT COUNTIES RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION OVER NIGHT IN FIRE ZONE 209 BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THAT ZONE WAS TRACE AMOUNTS OR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH AT BEST. THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEBRASKA SAW A HUNDREDTH OR LESS OF
PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS YESTERDAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS
ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP BUT FUELS ARE STILL FAVORABLE. LOOKING TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE BORDER IN WYOMING VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
GUSTY TROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER. MINIMUM RH WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND MAY FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE DAY 1 STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A
CONCERN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH LOW RH BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
LIMITING FACTOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 241442
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
942 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

UPDATED FORECAST FOR MAINLY FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS. BASED ON RAPID
CITYS UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL...LOWERED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. THE WINDS
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING ALSO. HOWEVER...WINDS
MAY DROP OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPDATED OTHER FIRE WEATHER
ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA INCLUDING HAINES...MIXING
HEIGHT...TRANSPORT WINDS...AND VENTILATION RATE/SMOKE DISPERSAL.
PUBLIC FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
LIGHTNING WAS AROUND 05Z. FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE
CLEARED FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. BIG WINNERS TONIGHT WERE GARFIELD
AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING FOR THE NEAR TERM.
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F DEGREES COOLER TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FROM THE PANHANDLE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS HAVE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY BUT CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS. FULL SUN EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. FRIDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 24/00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE STORM NORTH...WITH A NEARLY STACKED H5/H7
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED INVOF NORTHEAST COLORADO OR WESTERN
NEBRASKA AT 00Z MONDAY 28TH APRIL. GEFS ALSO CLUSTERING A AN H5
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SAME AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE GEFS
ALL INDICATE A VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW /NEAR 983MB/ IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA. THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WITH UNMODIFIED
RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
SPELLS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS. THE
CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS WILL BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT...THAT WILL
IMPACT SOME PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH TONIGHTS NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THIS DRY SLOT WOULD IMPACT PART OR ALL OF
THE NWS NORTH PLATTE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT
BEING SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVING NETWORK. THEREFORE AM
HESITANT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK IN FUTURE RUNS...THEN
WILL HAVE TO WARM HIGHS AND CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED FROM THIS
LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM. HOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES COULD
BE QUITE INTERESTING. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST 24/00Z ECMWF DUMBBELLS
A SECOND UPPER LOW WESTWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...EVENTUALLY MERGING
THE TWO SYSTEM TOGETHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SENDING A LARGE
SHIELD OF RAIN WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE
SCENARIO. FOR NOW...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL ALL PAN
OUT...AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WEST OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KOGA P6SM SKC. SKIES WILL
CLEAR WEST OF A LINE FROM KONL TO KBBW THROUGH NOON CDT. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS. GARFIELD...WHEELER
AND SOUTHERN HOLT COUNTIES RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION OVER NIGHT IN FIRE ZONE 209 BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THAT ZONE WAS TRACE AMOUNTS OR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH AT BEST. THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEBRASKA SAW A HUNDREDTH OR LESS OF
PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS YESTERDAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS
ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP BUT FUELS ARE STILL FAVORABLE. LOOKING TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE BORDER IN WYOMING VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
GUSTY TROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER. MINIMUM RH WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND MAY FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE DAY 1 STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A
CONCERN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH LOW RH BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
LIMITING FACTOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...POWER







000
FXUS63 KGID 241137
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

CONTINUING TO SEE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WHICH BROUGHT
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO
DRIVE THIS PRECIPITATION THOUGH WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY
LEFT...WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING IT SHIFTING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA...WITH ALL BUT FAR ERN PORTIONS
HAVING SEEN THEIR WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE GOING TO LINGER ON FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE
HOURS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES EAST...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THINGS
DRYING OUT BY MID MORNING. THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS DRY...WITH SHORTWAVE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN...SET UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM AND ANOTHER MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST.

EXPECTING TO SEE DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...THOUGH DID SLOW THE
CLEARING DOWN A TOUCH...AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN DECK IS JUST
NOW GETTING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. THE NW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
MORNING. SHOULD SEE SPEEDS START TO DIMINISH DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL REMAINS GOOD...THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS TO TAP INTO STARTS TO GO AWAY. STILL GOING TO SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS WORK ITS WAY IN...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY. SAME GOES WITH HIGHS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
TODAYS CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WARM AND DRY FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A VERY LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR THOSE
THAT HAVE STARTED SPRING PLANTING AND ARE WATCHING OUT FOR
FROST...TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A TIME FRAME TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

FRIDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER...BUT EVEN THAT IS
A RATHER LIMITED CONCERN. THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF OUR CWA AND BELOW THE 25 MPH WIND GUST CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS. EASTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO NEAR 25 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
20 MPH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY AS A SFC LOW STRENGTHS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE LOW AS WE DO NOT START
ADVECTION APPRECIABLE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND ACROSS WESTERN ZONES MAY ONLY BE AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OF LITTLE CONCERN. THE AREAS OF STRONGEST
WIND ACROSS OUR EAST ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY SEEING RAIN AND WILL
LIKELY HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF 0.40 TO OVER 1.00 INCH BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...AM NOT OVERLY
ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT.

SATURDAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THE DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM WILL STILL BE WELL OFF TO OUR WEST. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AREAS IF THE CAP CAN BREAK...BUT THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...WITH EASTERN ZONES
CURRENTLY THE MORE FAVORED AREA.

SUNDAY...A VERY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH A DEEP
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL ENTER THE PLAINS. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND WHERE THE BOUNDARIES ALL SET UP
INCLUDING MOST ESPECIALLY THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL SET UP MAKING CONFIDENCE A BIT LOW. THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL
RUNS QUICKLY PUSH THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE THROUGH MOST OF OUR
AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A DRY SLOT AND NOT
MUCH PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR MAYBE OUR FAR NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN BY EVEN 6
HOURS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO CUT OFF AND
ESSENTIALLY STALL OUT OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT LEAST FAIR IF NOT
GOOD IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS CUT OFF LOW AND THUS WILL BE
CALLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN. WE
WILL BE GETTING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS WE GET INTO THE AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S MAY BE TOO WARM AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
US STUCK IN THE 40S WITH SOME MODELS EVEN INDICATING WIDESPREAD
COLD RAIN AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THIS LATE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PHASE THE STALLED LOW
OVER THE PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH
DUMBBELLS THE COLDER GREAT LAKES AIR INTO OUR REGION. WE MAY BE
TOO WARM WITH LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER. MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FROST/FREEZE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. A LOT WILL RIDE ON IF THE
GREAT LAKES SYSTEM CAN REALLY PHASE IN WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SYSTEM. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE -24C RANGE. INSTABILITY SHOWERS...NOT CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST...WOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

STILL SEEING A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS...BUT SHOULD ONLY LINGER AROUND FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THAT...VFR AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST...AND CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH WITH
TIME TODAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL...LEAVING BEHIND NWRLY WINDS...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING
THE DAY...SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS ARND 30 MPH
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

STILL LOOKING AT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
TEEN TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THANKS TO THE
COMBO OF TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S/NEAR 70 AND MANY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR RH VALUES
FALLING TO/BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS IS ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE OF
THE CWA...WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE AN AREA THAT MISSED OUT ON THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION LAST EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS EAST
OF THERE HAD NOTABLE RAINFALL...AND FORECAST DEWPOINTS FOR THE
MOST PART REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT. THE BIG QUESTION LIES WITH
WINDS. MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 AND GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...AS WE GET INTO THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WHEN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT THEIR
LOWEST...THOSE SAME MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SFC WINDS
TAPERING OFF LIKELY BELOW 20 MPH...AND WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER DIMINISHING ENOUGH THAT GETTING GUSTS AT/ABOVE 25 MPH
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAD CONSIDERED A HEADLINE FOR
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS...BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RH/WIND
COMBO BEING MET FOR 3HRS...HELD OFF. WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY
SHIFT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADO
FIRE WEATHER...ADO




000
FXUS63 KLBF 241127
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
LIGHTNING WAS AROUND 05Z. FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE
CLEARED FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. BIG WINNERS TONIGHT WERE GARFIELD
AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING FOR THE NEAR TERM.
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F DEGREES COOLER TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FROM THE PANHANDLE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS HAVE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY BUT CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS. FULL SUN EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. FRIDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 24/00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE STORM NORTH...WITH A NEARLY STACKED H5/H7
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED INVOF NORTHEAST COLORADO OR WESTERN
NEBRASKA AT 00Z MONDAY 28TH APRIL. GEFS ALSO CLUSTERING A AN H5
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SAME AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE GEFS
ALL INDICATE A VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW /NEAR 983MB/ IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA. THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WITH UNMODIFIED
RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
SPELLS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS. THE
CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS WILL BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT...THAT WILL
IMPACT SOME PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH TONIGHTS NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THIS DRY SLOT WOULD IMPACT PART OR ALL OF
THE NWS NORTH PLATTE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT
BEING SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVING NETWORK. THEREFORE AM
HESITANT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK IN FUTURE RUNS...THEN
WILL HAVE TO WARM HIGHS AND CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED FROM THIS
LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM. HOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES COULD
BE QUITE INTERESTING. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST 24/00Z ECMWF DUMBBELLS
A SECOND UPPER LOW WESTWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...EVENTUALLY MERGING
THE TWO SYSTEM TOGETHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SENDING A LARGE
SHIELD OF RAIN WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE
SCENARIO. FOR NOW...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL ALL PAN
OUT...AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WEST OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KOGA P6SM SKC. SKIES WILL
CLEAR WEST OF A LINE FROM KONL TO KBBW THROUGH NOON CDT. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS. GARFIELD...WHEELER
AND SOUTHERN HOLT COUNTIES RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION OVER NIGHT IN FIRE ZONE 209 BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THAT ZONE WAS TRACE AMOUNTS OR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH AT BEST. THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEBRASKA SAW A HUNDREDTH OR LESS OF
PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS YESTERDAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS
ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP BUT FUELS ARE STILL FAVORABLE. LOOKING TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE BORDER IN WYOMING VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
GUSTY TROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER. MINIMUM RH WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND MAY FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE DAY 1 STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A
CONCERN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH LOW RH BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
LIMITING FACTOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...POWER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 241119
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RAIN COMPLEX OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH RADAR LOOP SHOWING
TREND OF MORE EASTERLY MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST HOUR. COLD FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING
FOLLOWS BEHIND THE THE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND
MILD CONDITIONS.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY WITH
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
SOUTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE 80S IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS CUT OFF UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND TAKE THEIR TIME MOVING OUT OF
THE REGION. BROAD UPPER CIRCULATION DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH PRETTY COLD AIR GETTING PULLED INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS HOWEVER SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FROST.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE KLNK/KOMA AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
COULD ALSO BRING MVFR CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES. THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SHOULD NOT REACH THESE LOCATIONS. RAIN ENDS AT
KLNK BY 13-14Z AND KOMA BY 14-15Z. THEN NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
TO 15 TO 22 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 28 KNOTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT DIMINISH BY 00-01Z AND BECOME 6 KNOTS
OR LESS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 240929
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
429 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

CONTINUING TO SEE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WHICH BROUGHT
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO
DRIVE THIS PRECIPITATION THOUGH WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY
LEFT...WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING IT SHIFTING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA...WITH ALL BUT FAR ERN PORTIONS
HAVING SEEN THEIR WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE GOING TO LINGER ON FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE
HOURS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES EAST...AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THINGS
DRYING OUT BY MID MORNING. THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS DRY...WITH SHORTWAVE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN...SET UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM AND ANOTHER MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST.

EXPECTING TO SEE DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...THOUGH DID SLOW THE
CLEARING DOWN A TOUCH...AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN DECK IS JUST
NOW GETTING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. THE NW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
MORNING. SHOULD SEE SPEEDS START TO DIMINISH DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL REMAINS GOOD...THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS TO TAP INTO STARTS TO GO AWAY. STILL GOING TO SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS WORK ITS WAY IN...AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY. SAME GOES WITH HIGHS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING
TODAYS CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WARM AND DRY FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A VERY LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR THOSE
THAT HAVE STARTED SPRING PLANTING AND ARE WATCHING OUT FOR
FROST...TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A TIME FRAME TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

FRIDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER...BUT EVEN THAT IS
A RATHER LIMITED CONCERN. THE WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF OUR CWA AND BELOW THE 25 MPH WIND GUST CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS. EASTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO NEAR 25 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
20 MPH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY AS A SFC LOW STRENGTHS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE LOW AS WE DO NOT START
ADVECTION APPRECIABLE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE WIND ACROSS WESTERN ZONES MAY ONLY BE AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OF LITTLE CONCERN. THE AREAS OF STRONGEST
WIND ACROSS OUR EAST ON FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY SEEING RAIN AND WILL
LIKELY HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF 0.40 TO OVER 1.00 INCH BY
THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...AM NOT OVERLY
ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT.

SATURDAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THE DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM WILL STILL BE WELL OFF TO OUR WEST. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AREAS IF THE CAP CAN BREAK...BUT THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...WITH EASTERN ZONES
CURRENTLY THE MORE FAVORED AREA.

SUNDAY...A VERY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH A DEEP
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL ENTER THE PLAINS. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND WHERE THE BOUNDARIES ALL SET UP
INCLUDING MOST ESPECIALLY THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL SET UP MAKING CONFIDENCE A BIT LOW. THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL
RUNS QUICKLY PUSH THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE THROUGH MOST OF OUR
AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A DRY SLOT AND NOT
MUCH PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR MAYBE OUR FAR NORTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALL CHANGE IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN BY EVEN 6
HOURS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO CUT OFF AND
ESSENTIALLY STALL OUT OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT LEAST FAIR IF NOT
GOOD IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS CUT OFF LOW AND THUS WILL BE
CALLING FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN. WE
WILL BE GETTING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS WE GET INTO THE AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S MAY BE TOO WARM AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
US STUCK IN THE 40S WITH SOME MODELS EVEN INDICATING WIDESPREAD
COLD RAIN AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THIS LATE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PHASE THE STALLED LOW
OVER THE PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH
DUMBBELLS THE COLDER GREAT LAKES AIR INTO OUR REGION. WE MAY BE
TOO WARM WITH LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER. MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FROST/FREEZE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. A LOT WILL RIDE ON IF THE
GREAT LAKES SYSTEM CAN REALLY PHASE IN WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SYSTEM. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE -24C RANGE. INSTABILITY SHOWERS...NOT CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST...WOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. WE WILL SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OR SO...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ALSO USHER
IN A SFC COLD FRONT. AREA OBS BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
VFR/MVFR...AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TO HAPPEN OCCASIONALLY AS
THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. THE TERMINAL AREA IS SITTING RIGHT ON
THE EDGE OF THE FRONT NOW...AND WOULD EXPECT ANYTIME FOR WINDS TO
SWITCH OVER THE NW...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD /MAY BE MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD
THE END/. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST...AND ONCE IT
DOES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

STILL LOOKING AT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER
TEEN TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THANKS TO THE
COMBO OF TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S/NEAR 70 AND MANY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR RH VALUES
FALLING TO/BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS IS ACROSS THE FAR WRN FRINGE OF
THE CWA...WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE AN AREA THAT MISSED OUT ON THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION LAST EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS EAST
OF THERE HAD NOTABLE RAINFALL...AND FORECAST DEWPOINTS FOR THE
MOST PART REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT. THE BIG QUESTION LIES WITH
WINDS. MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 AND GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...AS WE GET INTO THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WHEN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT THEIR
LOWEST...THOSE SAME MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SFC WINDS
TAPERING OFF LIKELY BELOW 20 MPH...AND WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER DIMINISHING ENOUGH THAT GETTING GUSTS AT/ABOVE 25 MPH
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAD CONSIDERED A HEADLINE FOR
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS...BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RH/WIND
COMBO BEING MET FOR 3HRS...HELD OFF. WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY
SHIFT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADO
FIRE WEATHER...ADO




000
FXUS63 KLBF 240826
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
326 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
LIGHTNING WAS AROUND 05Z. FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE
CLEARED FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. BIG WINNERS TONIGHT WERE GARFIELD
AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING FOR THE NEAR TERM.
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F DEGREES COOLER TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FROM THE PANHANDLE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS HAVE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY BUT CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS. FULL SUN EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. FRIDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 24/00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE STORM NORTH...WITH A NEARLY STACKED H5/H7
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED INVOF NORTHEAST COLORADO OR WESTERN
NEBRASKA AT 00Z MONDAY 28TH APRIL. GEFS ALSO CLUSTERING A AN H5
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SAME AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE GEFS
ALL INDICATE A VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW /NEAR 983MB/ IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA. THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WITH UNMODIFIED
RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
SPELLS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS. THE
CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS WILL BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT...THAT WILL
IMPACT SOME PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH TONIGHTS NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THIS DRY SLOT WOULD IMPACT PART OR ALL OF
THE NWS NORTH PLATTE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT
BEING SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVING NETWORK. THEREFORE AM
HESITANT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK IN FUTURE RUNS...THEN
WILL HAVE TO WARM HIGHS AND CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED FROM THIS
LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM. HOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES COULD
BE QUITE INTERESTING. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST 24/00Z ECMWF DUMBBELLS
A SECOND UPPER LOW WESTWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...EVENTUALLY MERGING
THE TWO SYSTEM TOGETHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SENDING A LARGE
SHIELD OF RAIN WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE
SCENARIO. FOR NOW...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL ALL PAN
OUT...AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY AT KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z AT THE TERMINALS TO
31015G25KT THROUGH 23Z...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. MID
CLOUDINESS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...TO BECOME SKC AFTER
12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS. GARFIELD...WHEELER
AND SOUTHERN HOLT COUNTIES RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION OVER NIGHT IN FIRE ZONE 209 BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THAT ZONE WAS TRACE AMOUNTS OR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH AT BEST. THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEBRASKA SAW A HUNDREDTH OR LESS OF
PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS YESTERDAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS
ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP BUT FUELS ARE STILL FAVORABLE. LOOKING TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE BORDER IN WYOMING VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
GUSTY TROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER. MINIMUM RH WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND MAY FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE DAY 1 STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A
CONCERN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH LOW RH BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
LIMITING FACTOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...POWER





000
FXUS63 KOAX 240800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

RAIN COMPLEX OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH RADAR LOOP SHOWING
TREND OF MORE EASTERLY MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST HOUR. COLD FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLEARING
SKIES MOVING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING
FOLLOWS BEHIND THE THE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND
MILD CONDITIONS.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFYS OVER THE NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY WITH
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
SOUTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE 80S IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS CUT OFF UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND TAKE THEIR TIME MOVING OUT OF
THE REGION. BROAD UPPER CIRCULATION DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH PRETTY COLD AIR GETTING PULLED INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS HOWEVER SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FROST.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SHRA ACTIVITY WAS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREA COVERAGE OVER ERN
NEB PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. LIKELY THAT THE PCPN ACTIVITY WILL
ENDURE THOUGH AT LEAST 12Z THURS MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SETTLE IN BY LATE MORNING. HAVE
TEMPO GROUPS IN PLACE BUT MENTION NOTHING LESS THAN MVFR
CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THRU ERN NEB SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA TWD SUNRISE...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS PREVAILING WELL
INTO THURS AFTN.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KLBF 240550 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1250 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW SUNDAY. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE CNTL PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PRODUCE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVELY LARGE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY IN CANADA. THERE ARE
TWO MAIN PV ANOMALIES AMONGST THE TROUGH...THE FIRST HAD MOVED OUT
OF COLORADO AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE THE SECOND
WAS SEEN OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
HAD PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND AT 20Z WAS
ROUGHLY FROM K9V9 TO KBBW TO KMCK...THEN EXTENDING INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. HAVE BEEN SEEING CUMULUS ALONG THE FRONT IN KANSAS AND A
FEW CUMULUS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. JUST NOT GETTING ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT AT THE TIME TO BE GETTING PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP YET AS RADAR IS STILL QUIET ALONG THE FRONT. FURTHER TO THE
WEST OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...VERY NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IN THE TEENS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWING INCREASING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AS THAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY 00Z. THERE IS GOOD
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE AREA...SO WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES. THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. BY 06Z...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
STORMS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES END SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING SOME
STRONG WINDS...PRIMARILY TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE THE HIGHEST. COULD SEE AN HOUR OR SO OF SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE FAIRLY
SHORT LIVED...SO WILL NOT PUT ANY WIND HEADLINES OUT AT THIS TIME.

FOR THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FURTHER DISCUSSION ON FIRE
CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD WARMING DESPITE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 700MB...HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. IN ADDITION...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND DEEP MIXING...COULD GET SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WILL COALESCE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN PULLING A LATE SEASON ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA FRIDAY BUT DROP INTO NERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 990 MB OR PERHAPS DEEPER WILL SET UP ACROSS NERN COLO/ERN
WY/ERN MT SATURDAY POTENTIALLY SETTING UP A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GEM...NAM...ECM AND GFS ALL
SHOW 80S FOR HIGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FALLING TO 60S AND
70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
SOUTHWEST TO LOWER 60S NORTHEAST WHICH IS COOLER THAN ALL OF THE
MODEL FORECAST.

THE NAM AND THE ECM INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND LIGHT QPF SATURDAY AFTN SO ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB. A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLO.
THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE WEATHER FRIDAY IS VERY TRANQUIL. WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CNTL
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS NEARLY NEUTRAL WHICH SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO AROUND 985 MB ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A VERY DEEP 4 CORNERS UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS KS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW VERY STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUNDAY AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR GETTING DRAWN INTO
THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD SEND THE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO ERN NEB. HOWEVER THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE FCST AREA SUNDAY...COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SFC BASED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG CAPE...A WEAK CAP
AND 45 KT OF BULK SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SPC DAY 5 SEVERE OUTLOOK ACROSS NCNTL NEB.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH. H850MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KTS MONDAY AFTN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
STRONG WINDS COULD CONTINUE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY INTO MISSOURI.

THE RAIN CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND WRAP AROUND RAIN OR SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE RAIN COULD EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A 3 WAY
BLEND OF THE GEM...GFS AND ECM SUGGESTED AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
COVERING ALL OF THE FCST AREA BUT SOME MODELS WERE WETTER OR DRIER
IN THE SOUTHWEST VS THE NORTHEAST SO AMOUNTS WILL VARY. THE HPC FCST
PREDICTS 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 1 INCH IN THE
NORTHEAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL.

THE ECM STALLS THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS
PLACES THE FCST AREA IN NORTH WINDS AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S BUT A 3 WAY BLEND OF THE
GEM...GFS AND ECM INDICATED 70S AS THE WARM FRONT WOULD BE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR 60S SO AN
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WE
WILL BE WATCHING THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM AN ARCTIC
HIGH ACROSS CANADA WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40 TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY AT KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z AT THE TERMINALS TO
31015G25KT THROUGH 23Z...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. MID
CLOUDINESS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...TO BECOME SKC AFTER
12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEES DEEP MIXING
TO AROUND 700MB. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TODAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL DROP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN AROUND 15 PERCENT. WHAT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE
THE WINDS. THE GFS DOES HAVE WINDS OF 30KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...WHILE THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST WITH SPEEDS OF 20KTS. WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BELIEVE THE FASTER WIND SPEEDS WILL HAPPEN...BUT
WILL WAIT TO SEE IF MODELS GET ON BOARD WITH HIGHER WINDS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY FIRE HEADLINES. FOR FRIDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
LOW AGAIN...BUT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SO FIRE DANGER IS
NOT LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED. THEN LOOKING TO THE WEEKEND...A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...SO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KGID 240543
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1243 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...MOST STORMS IN THE CWA HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT
IN THE LAST 90-120 MINUTES...AS DIURNAL COOLING AND OUTFLOW-
DOMINANT MODE HAS RESULTED IN DECREASING OVERALL
INSTABILITY...WITH LATEST SPC HOURLY MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTING
MIXED LAYER CAPE IS DOWN INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER WITHIN MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST
HALF. THE EASTWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW MAINLY WITHIN 30 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF THE STATE LINE IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR GUSTS IN THE
50-60 MPH RANGE PER AN EARLIER OBSERVATION AT PHILLIPSBURG KS
AIRPORT...BUT SUSPECT MOST PEAK GUSTS ARE NOW HOLDING AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY INTO SUB-SEVERE RANGE MAINLY IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RIDE...BUT THE OBVIOUS REALITY IS THAT FOR MOST OF THE CWA THE
PRIMARY THREAT HAS PASSED.

AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE HAVE GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE BASED ON
A FEW GROUND-TRUTH/AUTOMATED MEASUREMENTS THAT RADAR-DERIVED
ESTIMATION SO FAR DURING THIS EVENT HAS LARGELY RUN AT LEAST
TWICE...IF NOT LOCALLY 3 TIMES HIGHER THAN REALITY EVEN PER THE
DUAL POL PRODUCTS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS...MAINLY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT HAIL CONTAMINATION. IN OTHER WORDS...ALTHOUGH MANY
AREAS WITHIN THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF STORMS HAVE LIKELY RECEIVED 1-2"
FROM THIS EVENT AND MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS CLOSER TO 3"...DO
NOT BELIEVE ANYBODY HAS RECEIVED 4+" AS SOME OF THE RADAR PRODUCTS
SUGGEST. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF
HIGHEST RAINFALL...WE STRONGLY SUSPECT THAT HYDRO ISSUES HAVE BEEN
HELD TO A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE REFRAINED FROM ANY FLOOD
ADVISORY/WARNING PRODUCTS THUS FAR. OF COURSE...WE WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING TO RECEIVE TRUE GROUND TRUTH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM DOZENS OF NWS COOPERATIVE
OBSERVER...COCORAHS...NERAIN ETC. OBSERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

JUST UPDATED FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO FINE-TUNE SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS A LITTLE BIT. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF AN EVENT ALONG A FOCUSED FRONTAL ZONE...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS HAVE CONCENTRATED WITHIN A
NARROW...GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 10-20 MILE WIDE SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR CUTTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA FROM
GENERALLY THE BEAVER CITY AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST...THROUGH THE
MINDEN AREA THROUGH THE DONIPHAN-HASTINGS AREA THROUGH THE POLK
COUNTY AREA. WITHIN THIS ZONE...THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF HAIL TO AT LEAST PENNY SIZE...AND ISOLATED TO AROUND GOLF BALL
SIZE OR SLIGHTLY LARGER. ALTHOUGH LIKELY OVERDONE AT LEAST
MODESTLY BY HAIL CONTAMINATION...SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FRANKLIN/PHELPS/HARLAN/KEARNEY COUNTY BORDER AREA HAVE LIKELY
PICKED UP 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE OUTSIDE THE MAIN CORRIDOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS STRUGGLED TO SEE A DROP OF RAIN THUS FAR.

BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN HIGHER RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR/RAP/4KM WRF-NMM...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN STORMS SHOULD
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT AS THIS OCCURS THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A GRADUAL EXPANSION IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS THE
MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH CONTINUES AS ORIGINALLY ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SO FAR EVENTS ARE
UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED WITH EARLY DAY CONVECTION IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA ALONG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY
LINE.  ALOFT...THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS WERE LOCATED IN WESTERN ND...NC NEB AND NW KANSAS.  MOISTURE
HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH DPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50F AND LATEST SPC MESO PAGE PLACES AN INSTABILITY AXIS OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
MODEL PROGS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500 J/KG EXTENDING
NORTH THRU NC KANSAS INTO SC NEB THIS EVENING...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS.  IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE WE
SEE STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTION WILL
BE TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE ENTIRE CONVECTIVE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE BOUNDARIES ADVANCE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT.  LARGE HAIL THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH STILL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS.  WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOKS
PROMISING WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH OR SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  NOT EXPECTING HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM GIVEN HOW DRY THINGS
HAVE BEEN.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID/UPPER WAVE MOVE
THROUGH.  THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY
12Z THURSDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST BEHIND.  THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
THINGS RAPIDLY DRY OUT BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

ALSO TONIGHT...THERE ARE GOOD PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF CURRENT WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED OR EXTENDED FOR THE
POST FRONTAL NW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

TO SUMMARIZE IN THE SHORTEST WAY POSSIBLE...THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENTIALLY RATHER ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN
AT VARIOUS POINTS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 1 OR 2 ROUNDS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR THE POTENTIALLY HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH THESE DETAILS
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE HAMMERED OUT IN COMING DAYS...THIS WEEKEND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WHICH HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC IN THE DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK...HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT AS WELL. TEMPERATURE-WISE...A GRADUAL FALL
IS ADVERTISED FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S/NEAR 80 DURING THE FRIDAY-
SATURDAY TIME FRAME TO ONLY THE 50S/NEAR-60 FROM MON-WED.

AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS OR POTENTIAL HAZARDS THAT COULD
ALSO END UP IN THE HWO EVENTUALLY BUT ARE NOT THERE YET...AND
GOING IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER: 1) WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. SEE
SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAIL ON THIS. 2)
GOING MUCH FARTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST...THERE ARE ALREADY DECENT
SIGNALS THAT STRONG WINDS POTENTIALLY NEAR-TO- MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 30+ MPH WILL DEVELOP OUT OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALREADY
HAS SUSTAINED SPEEDS WORTHY OF AN HWO MENTION...GIVEN THIS IS
STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY WILL OMIT FROM NOW AND WAIT UNTIL IT GETS A
BIT CLOSER IN TIME/CONFIDENCE GROWS.

GETTING INTO SOME ABBREVIATED DETAIL GIVEN ONGOING ACTIVE
WEATHER...AND TAKING IT MAINLY IN 36-48 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS 36 HOURS REMAINS
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS...AS A PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE MID-HIGH
LEVELS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE EVEN IN WIND DIRECTION FOR FRIDAY IS A BIT
LACKING...BUT TEMPERATURE-WISE...BUMPED UP BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS AND FRIDAY HIGHS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE/MODELS.

SATURDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST 1 ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT WE ARE A FEW DAYS AWAY FROM
GAINING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. FROM A LARGE-SCALE MID-
UPPER LEVEL PERSPECTIVE...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE TAKING A STRONG...AMPLIFIED
TROUGH FROM A POSITION CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAL COAST ON
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SWINGING IT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
THEN CLOSING IT OFF OVER KS OR VICINITY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...A POTENTIALLY RATHER
STRONG SURFACE LOW SHOULD WIND UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GENERALLY
ALONG THE KS/CO/NEB BORDER AREA...DRAWING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AND POSSIBLY SETTING UP A FAIRLY SHARP WARM FRONT. ONLY
HAVE SLIGHT 20 POPS ADVERTISED FOR SATURDAY...AS MANY MODELS SHOW
FORCING INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...BUT SHOULD
SOMETHING FIRE SEVERE IS POSSIBLE. POPS INCREASE INTO THE 30-50
RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING
INCREASES CONSIDERABLY. ACTUALLY...THE BIGGEST CHANGE OF ALL IN
THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST MAY BE FOR HIGH TEMPS BOTH SAT AND
SUN...AS THEY ARE NOW TRENDING QUITE A BIT WARMER. ALTHOUGH DID
NOT GET CARRIED AWAY GIVEN ITS STILL 3-4 DAYS OUT...RAISED HIGHS
BOTH OF THESE DAYS GENERALLY 3-6 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE LATEST NAM EVEN SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD 80S FOR
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS.

MONDAY DAYTIME THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME...LEFT A SMATTERING OF
20-40 POPS GOING AS THE NOW VERY DEEP LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE NO THUNDERSTORM MENTION BEYOND MONDAY...AS PRECIP
SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD GENERIC RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG WINDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE. TEMPS NOT
CHANGED VERY MUCH EITHER DAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING HEADS FARTHER EAST...BUT NOT NECESSARILY A GUARANTEE
TO STAY THIS WAY. HIGH TEMPS WED VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO
MID-UPPER 50S.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH HAVE NO LOW TEMPS IN THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY FORECAST
THAT COULD SUPPORT FROST FORMATION...WE ARE CURRENTLY STAYING JUST
BARELY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN SOME
AREAS...SO THIS MAY BARE WATCHING DEPENDING ON WHAT WIND SPEEDS
DO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OR SO...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE TERMINAL AREA...AND ALSO USHER
IN A SFC COLD FRONT. AREA OBS BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
VFR/MVFR...AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TO HAPPEN OCCASIONALLY AS
THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. THE TERMINAL AREA IS SITTING RIGHT ON
THE EDGE OF THE FRONT NOW...AND WOULD EXPECT ANYTIME FOR WINDS TO
SWITCH OVER THE NW...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD /MAY BE MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD
THE END/. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST...AND ONCE IT
DOES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ON THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY DURING THE MORNING HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES. IF
WE RECEIVE WIDESPREAD...AND GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS...FUEL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE IN KANSAS. OFFICIALLY FUELS
REMAIN FAVORABLE IN NEBRASKA EVEN IF WE RECEIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT.
CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP NEAR OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 WITH NEAR
CRITICAL RH FARTHER EAST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH OF WINDS
IN THE LATTER AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER
WATCH ATTM...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS RISEN THAT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT
NEAR-CRITICAL RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...THE
CO-LOCATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS OF AT LEAST 15/20 MPH ARE
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AS EVEN TWO DAYS AWAY MODELS SUCH AS THE
NAM/GFS ARE UNUSUALLY OUT OF SYNC ON WIND SPEED AND EVEN
DIRECTION. NOT TO MENTION...THOSE AREAS THAT SEE APPRECIABLE RAIN
DURING THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS COULD HAVE FIRE DANGER MITIGATED
THESE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADO
FIRE WEATHER...FAY/PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 240445
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 12Z SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. STRONGEST 300 MB
WINDS WERE AROUND 120 KNOTS WITH A JETSTREAK MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH A MAX OF AROUND 130 METERS IN WESTERN WYOMING.
THERMAL RIDGE AT 700 MB WAS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT 850
MB...A NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE WAS SURGING NORTH INTO NEBRASKA
THAT ORIGINATES IN TEXAS.

AS OF 2 PM...CAP WAS WEAKENING TO OUR WEST AND STORMS SHOULD START TO
FIRE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. IT APPEARS THAT
THE HEAVIEST PCPN TONIGHT WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECT STORMS INITIALLY TO STAY MAINLY FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN PUSH EASTWARD. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD STAY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DEFINED
BY LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH LOOKS GOOD AND DOES AFFECT
PARTS OF OUR AREA. THE HIGHEST THREAT THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR... WITH AMOUNTS
OVER ONE INCH... AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.50 INCHES. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WEST OF
HIGHWAY 81 TO MID 50S NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER.

THURSDAY...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER IN OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE
MORNING BUT THE AFTN SHOULD BE DRY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP. JUST LOW LOW THEY DROP WILL BE
IMPORTANT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WE DO EXPECT VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. IF HEAVY RAIN DOES
NOT OCCUR AND DEWPOINTS END UP LOWER...EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS
POSSIBLE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN LOOK AT THAT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 60S OR AROUND 70.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS PCPN CHANCES WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 PERCENT. SOME
STORMS MAY FIRE UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER
EASTERN KANSAS OR POSSIBLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AS
HINTED AT BY THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON TSTM
CHANCES UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AND INSTABLILITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGH POPS UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THINGS ARE SIMILAR IN THIS PERIOD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD...WE EXPECT A TROUGH AT 500 MB TO BE OVER
THE ROCKIES...WITH TENDENCY FOR A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

THE 12Z CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GFS. THAT TREND ALSO CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...
WHEN A CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER. EVEN AROUND THE WHOLE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THINGS. SO...WILL INTRODUCE SMALL PCPN CHANCES
FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN HOLD ONTO
POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
WE SHOULD DRY CONDITIONS...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SHRA ACTIVITY WAS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREA COVERAGE OVER ERN
NEB PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. LIKELY THAT THE PCPN ACTIVITY WILL
ENDURE THOUGH AT LEAST 12Z THURS MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SETTLE IN BY LATE MORNING. HAVE
TEMPO GROUPS IN PLACE BUT MENTION NOTHING LESS THAN MVFR
CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THRU ERN NEB SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA TWD SUNRISE...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS PREVAILING WELL
INTO THURS AFTN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KGID 240204
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
904 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AS ANTICIPATED...MOST STORMS IN THE CWA HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT
IN THE LAST 90-120 MINUTES...AS DIURNAL COOLING AND OUTFLOW-
DOMINANT MODE HAS RESULTED IN DECREASING OVERALL
INSTABILITY...WITH LATEST SPC HOURLY MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTING
MIXED LAYER CAPE IS DOWN INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER WITHIN MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST
HALF. THE EASTWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW MAINLY WITHIN 30 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF THE STATE LINE IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR GUSTS IN THE
50-60 MPH RANGE PER AN EARLIER OBSERVATION AT PHILLIPSBURG KS
AIRPORT...BUT SUSPECT MOST PEAK GUSTS ARE NOW HOLDING AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY INTO SUB-SEVERE RANGE MAINLY IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE. AT
LEAST FOR NOW...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
RIDE...BUT THE OBVIOUS REALITY IS THAT FOR MOST OF THE CWA THE
PRIMARY THREAT HAS PASSED.

AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE HAVE GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE BASED ON
A FEW GROUND-TRUTH/AUTOMATED MEASUREMENTS THAT RADAR-DERIVED
ESTIMATION SO FAR DURING THIS EVENT HAS LARGELY RUN AT LEAST
TWICE...IF NOT LOCALLY 3 TIMES HIGHER THAN REALITY EVEN PER THE
DUAL POL PRODUCTS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS...MAINLY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT HAIL CONTAMINATION. IN OTHER WORDS...ALTHOUGH MANY
AREAS WITHIN THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF STORMS HAVE LIKELY RECEIVED 1-2"
FROM THIS EVENT AND MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS CLOSER TO 3"...DO
NOT BELIEVE ANYBODY HAS RECEIVED 4+" AS SOME OF THE RADAR PRODUCTS
SUGGEST. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WITHIN THE AREA OF
HIGHEST RAINFALL...WE STRONGLY SUSPECT THAT HYDRO ISSUES HAVE BEEN
HELD TO A MINIMUM...AND THUS HAVE REFRAINED FROM ANY FLOOD
ADVISORY/WARNING PRODUCTS THUS FAR. OF COURSE...WE WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING TO RECEIVE TRUE GROUND TRUTH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM DOZENS OF NWS COOPERATIVE
OBSERVER...COCORAHS...NERAIN ETC. OBSERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

JUST UPDATED FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO FINE-TUNE SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS A LITTLE BIT. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF AN EVENT ALONG A FOCUSED FRONTAL ZONE...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS HAVE CONCENTRATED WITHIN A
NARROW...GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 10-20 MILE WIDE SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR CUTTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA FROM
GENERALLY THE BEAVER CITY AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST...THROUGH THE
MINDEN AREA THROUGH THE DONIPHAN-HASTINGS AREA THROUGH THE POLK
COUNTY AREA. WITHIN THIS ZONE...THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF HAIL TO AT LEAST PENNY SIZE...AND ISOLATED TO AROUND GOLF BALL
SIZE OR SLIGHTLY LARGER. ALTHOUGH LIKELY OVERDONE AT LEAST
MODESTLY BY HAIL CONTAMINATION...SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FRANKLIN/PHELPS/HARLAN/KEARNEY COUNTY BORDER AREA HAVE LIKELY
PICKED UP 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE OUTSIDE THE MAIN CORRIDOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS STRUGGLED TO SEE A DROP OF RAIN THUS FAR.

BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN HIGHER RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR/RAP/4KM WRF-NMM...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN STORMS SHOULD
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT AS THIS OCCURS THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A GRADUAL EXPANSION IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS THE
MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH CONTINUES AS ORIGINALLY ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SO FAR EVENTS ARE
UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED WITH EARLY DAY CONVECTION IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA ALONG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY
LINE.  ALOFT...THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS WERE LOCATED IN WESTERN ND...NC NEB AND NW KANSAS.  MOISTURE
HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH DPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50F AND LATEST SPC MESO PAGE PLACES AN INSTABILITY AXIS OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
MODEL PROGS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500 J/KG EXTENDING
NORTH THRU NC KANSAS INTO SC NEB THIS EVENING...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS.  IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE WE
SEE STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTION WILL
BE TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE ENTIRE CONVECTIVE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE BOUNDARIES ADVANCE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT.  LARGE HAIL THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH STILL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS.  WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOKS
PROMISING WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH OR SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  NOT EXPECTING HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM GIVEN HOW DRY THINGS
HAVE BEEN.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID/UPPER WAVE MOVE
THROUGH.  THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY
12Z THURSDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST BEHIND.  THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
THINGS RAPIDLY DRY OUT BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

ALSO TONIGHT...THERE ARE GOOD PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF CURRENT WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED OR EXTENDED FOR THE
POST FRONTAL NW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

TO SUMMARIZE IN THE SHORTEST WAY POSSIBLE...THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENTIALLY RATHER ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN
AT VARIOUS POINTS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 1 OR 2 ROUNDS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR THE POTENTIALLY HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH THESE DETAILS
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE HAMMERED OUT IN COMING DAYS...THIS WEEKEND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WHICH HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC IN THE DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK...HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT AS WELL. TEMPERATURE-WISE...A GRADUAL FALL
IS ADVERTISED FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S/NEAR 80 DURING THE FRIDAY-
SATURDAY TIME FRAME TO ONLY THE 50S/NEAR-60 FROM MON-WED.

AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS OR POTENTIAL HAZARDS THAT COULD
ALSO END UP IN THE HWO EVENTUALLY BUT ARE NOT THERE YET...AND
GOING IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER: 1) WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. SEE
SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAIL ON THIS. 2)
GOING MUCH FARTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST...THERE ARE ALREADY DECENT
SIGNALS THAT STRONG WINDS POTENTIALLY NEAR-TO- MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 30+ MPH WILL DEVELOP OUT OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALREADY
HAS SUSTAINED SPEEDS WORTHY OF AN HWO MENTION...GIVEN THIS IS
STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY WILL OMIT FROM NOW AND WAIT UNTIL IT GETS A
BIT CLOSER IN TIME/CONFIDENCE GROWS.

GETTING INTO SOME ABBREVIATED DETAIL GIVEN ONGOING ACTIVE
WEATHER...AND TAKING IT MAINLY IN 36-48 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS 36 HOURS REMAINS
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS...AS A PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE MID-HIGH
LEVELS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE EVEN IN WIND DIRECTION FOR FRIDAY IS A BIT
LACKING...BUT TEMPERATURE-WISE...BUMPED UP BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS AND FRIDAY HIGHS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE/MODELS.

SATURDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST 1 ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT WE ARE A FEW DAYS AWAY FROM
GAINING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. FROM A LARGE-SCALE MID-
UPPER LEVEL PERSPECTIVE...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE TAKING A STRONG...AMPLIFIED
TROUGH FROM A POSITION CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAL COAST ON
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SWINGING IT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
THEN CLOSING IT OFF OVER KS OR VICINITY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...A POTENTIALLY RATHER
STRONG SURFACE LOW SHOULD WIND UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GENERALLY
ALONG THE KS/CO/NEB BORDER AREA...DRAWING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AND POSSIBLY SETTING UP A FAIRLY SHARP WARM FRONT. ONLY
HAVE SLIGHT 20 POPS ADVERTISED FOR SATURDAY...AS MANY MODELS SHOW
FORCING INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...BUT SHOULD
SOMETHING FIRE SEVERE IS POSSIBLE. POPS INCREASE INTO THE 30-50
RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING
INCREASES CONSIDERABLY. ACTUALLY...THE BIGGEST CHANGE OF ALL IN
THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST MAY BE FOR HIGH TEMPS BOTH SAT AND
SUN...AS THEY ARE NOW TRENDING QUITE A BIT WARMER. ALTHOUGH DID
NOT GET CARRIED AWAY GIVEN ITS STILL 3-4 DAYS OUT...RAISED HIGHS
BOTH OF THESE DAYS GENERALLY 3-6 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE LATEST NAM EVEN SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD 80S FOR
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS.

MONDAY DAYTIME THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME...LEFT A SMATTERING OF
20-40 POPS GOING AS THE NOW VERY DEEP LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE NO THUNDERSTORM MENTION BEYOND MONDAY...AS PRECIP
SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD GENERIC RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG WINDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE. TEMPS NOT
CHANGED VERY MUCH EITHER DAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING HEADS FARTHER EAST...BUT NOT NECESSARILY A GUARANTEE
TO STAY THIS WAY. HIGH TEMPS WED VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO
MID-UPPER 50S.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH HAVE NO LOW TEMPS IN THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY FORECAST
THAT COULD SUPPORT FROST FORMATION...WE ARE CURRENTLY STAYING JUST
BARELY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN SOME
AREAS...SO THIS MAY BARE WATCHING DEPENDING ON WHAT WIND SPEEDS
DO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE VAST MAJORITY OF AVIATION ISSUES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE FIRST 5-9 HOURS AS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TRACKS NEAR...AND AT TIMES DIRECTLY
OVER KGRI...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
HAVE RUN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE INITIAL 4 HOURS TO CAPTURE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...WITH ONLY A VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM MENTION THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES/AMENDMENTS MAY VERY WELL EXTEND TEMPO/PREVAILING GROUPS
FARTHER OUT IN TIME. HAVE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 10-11Z ON
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE THURSDAY DAYTIME HOURS. WIND-WISE...KGRI
WILL BE PRONE TO POTENTIALLY ERRATIC/VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUST
POTENTIAL TO OVER 30KT DURING THESE FIRST FEW HOURS IN
CONVECTION...BUT BY LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT A PREVAILING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL TAKE OVER BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AVERAGING AT LEAST
15-20KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 24-30KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ON THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY DURING THE MORNING HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES. IF
WE RECEIVE WIDESPREAD...AND GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS...FUEL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE IN KANSAS. OFFICIALLY FUELS
REMAIN FAVORABLE IN NEBRASKA EVEN IF WE RECEIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT.
CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP NEAR OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 WITH NEAR
CRITICAL RH FARTHER EAST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH OF WINDS
IN THE LATTER AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER
WATCH ATTM...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS RISEN THAT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT
NEAR-CRITICAL RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...THE
CO-LOCATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS OF AT LEAST 15/20 MPH ARE
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AS EVEN TWO DAYS AWAY MODELS SUCH AS THE
NAM/GFS ARE UNUSUALLY OUT OF SYNC ON WIND SPEED AND EVEN
DIRECTION. NOT TO MENTION...THOSE AREAS THAT SEE APPRECIABLE RAIN
DURING THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS COULD HAVE FIRE DANGER MITIGATED
THESE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...FAY/PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 240025
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
725 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

JUST UPDATED FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO FINE-TUNE SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS A LITTLE BIT. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF AN EVENT ALONG A FOCUSED FRONTAL ZONE...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS HAVE CONCENTRATED WITHIN A
NARROW...GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 10-20 MILE WIDE SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR CUTTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA FROM
GENERALLY THE BEAVER CITY AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST...THROUGH THE
MINDEN AREA THROUGH THE DONIPHAN-HASTINGS AREA THROUGH THE POLK
COUNTY AREA. WITHIN THIS ZONE...THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF HAIL TO AT LEAST PENNY SIZE...AND ISOLATED TO AROUND GOLF BALL
SIZE OR SLIGHTLY LARGER. ALTHOUGH LIKELY OVERDONE AT LEAST
MODESTLY BY HAIL CONTAMINATION...SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FRANKLIN/PHELPS/HARLAN/KEARNEY COUNTY BORDER AREA HAVE LIKELY
PICKED UP 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE OUTSIDE THE MAIN CORRIDOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAS STRUGGLED TO SEE A DROP OF RAIN THUS FAR.

BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN HIGHER RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR/RAP/4KM WRF-NMM...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN STORMS SHOULD
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT AS THIS OCCURS THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE A GRADUAL EXPANSION IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS THE
MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH CONTINUES AS ORIGINALLY ISSUED FOR ENTIRE CWA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SO FAR EVENTS ARE
UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED WITH EARLY DAY CONVECTION IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA ALONG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY
LINE.  ALOFT...THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS WERE LOCATED IN WESTERN ND...NC NEB AND NW KANSAS.  MOISTURE
HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH DPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50F AND LATEST SPC MESO PAGE PLACES AN INSTABILITY AXIS OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
MODEL PROGS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500 J/KG EXTENDING
NORTH THRU NC KANSAS INTO SC NEB THIS EVENING...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS.  IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE WE
SEE STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTION WILL
BE TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE ENTIRE CONVECTIVE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE BOUNDARIES ADVANCE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT.  LARGE HAIL THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH STILL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS.  WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOKS
PROMISING WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH OR SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  NOT EXPECTING HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM GIVEN HOW DRY THINGS
HAVE BEEN.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID/UPPER WAVE MOVE
THROUGH.  THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY
12Z THURSDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST BEHIND.  THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
THINGS RAPIDLY DRY OUT BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

ALSO TONIGHT...THERE ARE GOOD PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF CURRENT WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED OR EXTENDED FOR THE
POST FRONTAL NW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

TO SUMMARIZE IN THE SHORTEST WAY POSSIBLE...THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENTIALLY RATHER ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN
AT VARIOUS POINTS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 1 OR 2 ROUNDS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR THE POTENTIALLY HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH THESE DETAILS
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE HAMMERED OUT IN COMING DAYS...THIS WEEKEND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WHICH HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC IN THE DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK...HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT AS WELL. TEMPERATURE-WISE...A GRADUAL FALL
IS ADVERTISED FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S/NEAR 80 DURING THE FRIDAY-
SATURDAY TIME FRAME TO ONLY THE 50S/NEAR-60 FROM MON-WED.

AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS OR POTENTIAL HAZARDS THAT COULD
ALSO END UP IN THE HWO EVENTUALLY BUT ARE NOT THERE YET...AND
GOING IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER: 1) WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. SEE
SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAIL ON THIS. 2)
GOING MUCH FARTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST...THERE ARE ALREADY DECENT
SIGNALS THAT STRONG WINDS POTENTIALLY NEAR-TO- MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 30+ MPH WILL DEVELOP OUT OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALREADY
HAS SUSTAINED SPEEDS WORTHY OF AN HWO MENTION...GIVEN THIS IS
STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY WILL OMIT FROM NOW AND WAIT UNTIL IT GETS A
BIT CLOSER IN TIME/CONFIDENCE GROWS.

GETTING INTO SOME ABBREVIATED DETAIL GIVEN ONGOING ACTIVE
WEATHER...AND TAKING IT MAINLY IN 36-48 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS 36 HOURS REMAINS
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS...AS A PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE MID-HIGH
LEVELS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE EVEN IN WIND DIRECTION FOR FRIDAY IS A BIT
LACKING...BUT TEMPERATURE-WISE...BUMPED UP BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS AND FRIDAY HIGHS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE/MODELS.

SATURDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST 1 ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT WE ARE A FEW DAYS AWAY FROM
GAINING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. FROM A LARGE-SCALE MID-
UPPER LEVEL PERSPECTIVE...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE TAKING A STRONG...AMPLIFIED
TROUGH FROM A POSITION CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAL COAST ON
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SWINGING IT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
THEN CLOSING IT OFF OVER KS OR VICINITY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...A POTENTIALLY RATHER
STRONG SURFACE LOW SHOULD WIND UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GENERALLY
ALONG THE KS/CO/NEB BORDER AREA...DRAWING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AND POSSIBLY SETTING UP A FAIRLY SHARP WARM FRONT. ONLY
HAVE SLIGHT 20 POPS ADVERTISED FOR SATURDAY...AS MANY MODELS SHOW
FORCING INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...BUT SHOULD
SOMETHING FIRE SEVERE IS POSSIBLE. POPS INCREASE INTO THE 30-50
RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING
INCREASES CONSIDERABLY. ACTUALLY...THE BIGGEST CHANGE OF ALL IN
THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST MAY BE FOR HIGH TEMPS BOTH SAT AND
SUN...AS THEY ARE NOW TRENDING QUITE A BIT WARMER. ALTHOUGH DID
NOT GET CARRIED AWAY GIVEN ITS STILL 3-4 DAYS OUT...RAISED HIGHS
BOTH OF THESE DAYS GENERALLY 3-6 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE LATEST NAM EVEN SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD 80S FOR
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS.

MONDAY DAYTIME THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME...LEFT A SMATTERING OF
20-40 POPS GOING AS THE NOW VERY DEEP LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE NO THUNDERSTORM MENTION BEYOND MONDAY...AS PRECIP
SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD GENERIC RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG WINDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE. TEMPS NOT
CHANGED VERY MUCH EITHER DAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING HEADS FARTHER EAST...BUT NOT NECESSARILY A GUARANTEE
TO STAY THIS WAY. HIGH TEMPS WED VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO
MID-UPPER 50S.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH HAVE NO LOW TEMPS IN THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY FORECAST
THAT COULD SUPPORT FROST FORMATION...WE ARE CURRENTLY STAYING JUST
BARELY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN SOME
AREAS...SO THIS MAY BARE WATCHING DEPENDING ON WHAT WIND SPEEDS
DO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE VAST MAJORITY OF AVIATION ISSUES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE FIRST 5-9 HOURS AS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TRACKS NEAR...AND AT TIMES DIRECTLY
OVER KGRI...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
HAVE RUN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE INITIAL 4 HOURS TO CAPTURE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...WITH ONLY A VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM MENTION THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES/AMENDMENTS MAY VERY WELL EXTEND TEMPO/PREVAILING GROUPS
FARTHER OUT IN TIME. HAVE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 10-11Z ON
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE THURSDAY DAYTIME HOURS. WIND-WISE...KGRI
WILL BE PRONE TO POTENTIALLY ERRATIC/VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUST
POTENTIAL TO OVER 30KT DURING THESE FIRST FEW HOURS IN
CONVECTION...BUT BY LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT A PREVAILING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL TAKE OVER BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AVERAGING AT LEAST
15-20KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 24-30KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ON THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY DURING THE MORNING HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES. IF
WE RECEIVE WIDESPREAD...AND GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS...FUEL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE IN KANSAS. OFFICIALLY FUELS
REMAIN FAVORABLE IN NEBRASKA EVEN IF WE RECEIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT.
CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP NEAR OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 WITH NEAR
CRITICAL RH FARTHER EAST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH OF WINDS
IN THE LATTER AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER
WATCH ATTM...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS RISEN THAT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT
NEAR-CRITICAL RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...THE
CO-LOCATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS OF AT LEAST 15/20 MPH ARE
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AS EVEN TWO DAYS AWAY MODELS SUCH AS THE
NAM/GFS ARE UNUSUALLY OUT OF SYNC ON WIND SPEED AND EVEN
DIRECTION. NOT TO MENTION...THOSE AREAS THAT SEE APPRECIABLE RAIN
DURING THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS COULD HAVE FIRE DANGER MITIGATED
THESE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ040-041-047>049-
     061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...FAY/PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 240008
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
708 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW SUNDAY. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE CNTL PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PRODUCE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVELY LARGE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY IN CANADA. THERE ARE
TWO MAIN PV ANOMALIES AMONGST THE TROUGH...THE FIRST HAD MOVED OUT
OF COLORADO AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE THE SECOND
WAS SEEN OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
HAD PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND AT 20Z WAS
ROUGHLY FROM K9V9 TO KBBW TO KMCK...THEN EXTENDING INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. HAVE BEEN SEEING CUMULUS ALONG THE FRONT IN KANSAS AND A
FEW CUMULUS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. JUST NOT GETTING ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT AT THE TIME TO BE GETTING PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP YET AS RADAR IS STILL QUIET ALONG THE FRONT. FURTHER TO THE
WEST OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...VERY NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IN THE TEENS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWING INCREASING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AS THAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY 00Z. THERE IS GOOD
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE AREA...SO WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES. THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. BY 06Z...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
STORMS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES END SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING SOME
STRONG WINDS...PRIMARILY TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE THE HIGHEST. COULD SEE AN HOUR OR SO OF SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE FAIRLY
SHORT LIVED...SO WILL NOT PUT ANY WIND HEADLINES OUT AT THIS TIME.

FOR THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FURTHER DISCUSSION ON FIRE
CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD WARMING DESPITE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 700MB...HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. IN ADDITION...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND DEEP MIXING...COULD GET SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WILL COALESCE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN PULLING A LATE SEASON ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA FRIDAY BUT DROP INTO NERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 990 MB OR PERHAPS DEEPER WILL SET UP ACROSS NERN COLO/ERN
WY/ERN MT SATURDAY POTENTIALLY SETTING UP A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GEM...NAM...ECM AND GFS ALL
SHOW 80S FOR HIGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FALLING TO 60S AND
70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
SOUTHWEST TO LOWER 60S NORTHEAST WHICH IS COOLER THAN ALL OF THE
MODEL FORECAST.

THE NAM AND THE ECM INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND LIGHT QPF SATURDAY AFTN SO ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB. A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLO.
THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE WEATHER FRIDAY IS VERY TRANQUIL. WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CNTL
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS NEARLY NEUTRAL WHICH SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO AROUND 985 MB ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A VERY DEEP 4 CORNERS UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS KS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW VERY STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUNDAY AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR GETTING DRAWN INTO
THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD SEND THE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO ERN NEB. HOWEVER THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE FCST AREA SUNDAY...COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SFC BASED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG CAPE...A WEAK CAP
AND 45 KT OF BULK SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SPC DAY 5 SEVERE OUTLOOK ACROSS NCNTL NEB.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH. H850MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KTS MONDAY AFTN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
STRONG WINDS COULD CONTINUE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY INTO MISSOURI.

THE RAIN CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND WRAP AROUND RAIN OR SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE RAIN COULD EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A 3 WAY
BLEND OF THE GEM...GFS AND ECM SUGGESTED AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
COVERING ALL OF THE FCST AREA BUT SOME MODELS WERE WETTER OR DRIER
IN THE SOUTHWEST VS THE NORTHEAST SO AMOUNTS WILL VARY. THE HPC FCST
PREDICTS 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 1 INCH IN THE
NORTHEAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL.

THE ECM STALLS THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS
PLACES THE FCST AREA IN NORTH WINDS AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S BUT A 3 WAY BLEND OF THE
GEM...GFS AND ECM INDICATED 70S AS THE WARM FRONT WOULD BE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR 60S SO AN
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WE
WILL BE WATCHING THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM AN ARCTIC
HIGH ACROSS CANADA WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40 TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO KLBF AND KVTN THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
UNLIKELY HOWEVER. SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER 06Z. WINDS
NEAR 33015G25KT TO DIMINISH LATE EVENING...THEN INCREASE BY
15Z/24TH TO 31017G26KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEES DEEP MIXING
TO AROUND 700MB. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TODAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL DROP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN AROUND 15 PERCENT. WHAT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE
THE WINDS. THE GFS DOES HAVE WINDS OF 30KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...WHILE THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST WITH SPEEDS OF 20KTS. WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BELIEVE THE FASTER WIND SPEEDS WILL HAPPEN...BUT
WILL WAIT TO SEE IF MODELS GET ON BOARD WITH HIGHER WINDS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY FIRE HEADLINES. FOR FRIDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
LOW AGAIN...BUT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SO FIRE DANGER IS
NOT LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED. THEN LOOKING TO THE WEEKEND...A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...SO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KGID 232127
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
427 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SO FAR EVENTS ARE
UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED WITH EARLY DAY CONVECTION IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA ALONG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND DRY
LINE.  ALOFT...THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS WERE LOCATED IN WESTERN ND...NC NEB AND NW KANSAS.  MOISTURE
HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH DPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50F AND LATEST SPC MESO PAGE PLACES AN INSTABILITY AXIS OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
MODEL PROGS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500 J/KG EXTENDING
NORTH THRU NC KANSAS INTO SC NEB THIS EVENING...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS.  IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE WE
SEE STORMS FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTION WILL
BE TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE ENTIRE CONVECTIVE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE BOUNDARIES ADVANCE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT.  LARGE HAIL THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH STILL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS.  WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOKS
PROMISING WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH OR SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  NOT EXPECTING HYDRO CONCERNS ATTM GIVEN HOW DRY THINGS
HAVE BEEN.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID/UPPER WAVE MOVE
THROUGH.  THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY
12Z THURSDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST BEHIND.  THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
THINGS RAPIDLY DRY OUT BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

ALSO TONIGHT...THERE ARE GOOD PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS AND WILL MONITOR TO SEE
IF CURRENT WIND ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED OR EXTENDED FOR THE
POST FRONTAL NW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

TO SUMMARIZE IN THE SHORTEST WAY POSSIBLE...THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENTIALLY RATHER ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN
AT VARIOUS POINTS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 1 OR 2 ROUNDS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH STILL SUBJECT TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR THE POTENTIALLY HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH THESE DETAILS
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE HAMMERED OUT IN COMING DAYS...THIS WEEKEND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WHICH HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC IN THE DAY
4-8 OUTLOOK...HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT AS WELL. TEMPERATURE-WISE...A GRADUAL FALL
IS ADVERTISED FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S/NEAR 80 DURING THE FRIDAY-
SATURDAY TIME FRAME TO ONLY THE 50S/NEAR-60 FROM MON-WED.

AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS OR POTENTIAL HAZARDS THAT COULD
ALSO END UP IN THE HWO EVENTUALLY BUT ARE NOT THERE YET...AND
GOING IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER: 1) WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. SEE
SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAIL ON THIS. 2)
GOING MUCH FARTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST...THERE ARE ALREADY DECENT
SIGNALS THAT STRONG WINDS POTENTIALLY NEAR-TO- MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 30+ MPH WILL DEVELOP OUT OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALREADY
HAS SUSTAINED SPEEDS WORTHY OF AN HWO MENTION...GIVEN THIS IS
STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY WILL OMIT FROM NOW AND WAIT UNTIL IT GETS A
BIT CLOSER IN TIME/CONFIDENCE GROWS.

GETTING INTO SOME ABBREVIATED DETAIL GIVEN ONGOING ACTIVE
WEATHER...AND TAKING IT MAINLY IN 36-48 HOUR BLOCKS...

THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS 36 HOURS REMAINS
RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS...AS A PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE MID-HIGH
LEVELS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE EVEN IN WIND DIRECTION FOR FRIDAY IS A BIT
LACKING...BUT TEMPERATURE-WISE...BUMPED UP BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS AND FRIDAY HIGHS GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE/MODELS.

SATURDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST 1 ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT WE ARE A FEW DAYS AWAY FROM
GAINING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. FROM A LARGE-SCALE MID-
UPPER LEVEL PERSPECTIVE...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TIME RANGE TAKING A STRONG...AMPLIFIED
TROUGH FROM A POSITION CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAL COAST ON
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SWINGING IT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
THEN CLOSING IT OFF OVER KS OR VICINITY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...A POTENTIALLY RATHER
STRONG SURFACE LOW SHOULD WIND UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GENERALLY
ALONG THE KS/CO/NEB BORDER AREA...DRAWING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA AND POSSIBLY SETTING UP A FAIRLY SHARP WARM FRONT. ONLY
HAVE SLIGHT 20 POPS ADVERTISED FOR SATURDAY...AS MANY MODELS SHOW
FORCING INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...BUT SHOULD
SOMETHING FIRE SEVERE IS POSSIBLE. POPS INCREASE INTO THE 30-50
RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING
INCREASES CONSIDERABLY. ACTUALLY...THE BIGGEST CHANGE OF ALL IN
THE ENTIRE 7-DAY FORECAST MAY BE FOR HIGH TEMPS BOTH SAT AND
SUN...AS THEY ARE NOW TRENDING QUITE A BIT WARMER. ALTHOUGH DID
NOT GET CARRIED AWAY GIVEN ITS STILL 3-4 DAYS OUT...RAISED HIGHS
BOTH OF THESE DAYS GENERALLY 3-6 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE LATEST NAM EVEN SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD 80S FOR
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS.

MONDAY DAYTIME THROUGH TUESDAY DAYTIME...LEFT A SMATTERING OF
20-40 POPS GOING AS THE NOW VERY DEEP LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE NO THUNDERSTORM MENTION BEYOND MONDAY...AS PRECIP
SHOULD TREND MORE TOWARD GENERIC RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STRONG WINDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE. TEMPS NOT
CHANGED VERY MUCH EITHER DAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING HEADS FARTHER EAST...BUT NOT NECESSARILY A GUARANTEE
TO STAY THIS WAY. HIGH TEMPS WED VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO
MID-UPPER 50S.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH HAVE NO LOW TEMPS IN THE OFFICIAL 7-DAY FORECAST
THAT COULD SUPPORT FROST FORMATION...WE ARE CURRENTLY STAYING JUST
BARELY ABOVE FROST THRESHOLDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN SOME
AREAS...SO THIS MAY BARE WATCHING DEPENDING ON WHAT WIND SPEEDS
DO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 25KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEST OF THE TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION
REACHING KGRI TOWARD THE EVENING. TSTMS THEN REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GENERALLY THROUGH 07Z. WINDS SWITCH
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND PCPN CHCS DECREASE BY
MORNING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEM MOVE PAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ON THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY DURING THE MORNING HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES. IF
WE RECEIVE WIDESPREAD...AND GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS...FUEL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE IN KANSAS. OFFICIALLY FUELS
REMAIN FAVORABLE IN NEBRASKA EVEN IF WE RECEIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT.
CURRENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP NEAR OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 WITH NEAR
CRITICAL RH FARTHER EAST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH OF WINDS
IN THE LATTER AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE WEATHER
WATCH ATTM...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE HAS RISEN THAT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT
NEAR-CRITICAL RANGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...THE
CO-LOCATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS OF AT LEAST 15/20 MPH ARE
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AS EVEN TWO DAYS AWAY MODELS SUCH AS THE
NAM/GFS ARE UNUSUALLY OUT OF SYNC ON WIND SPEED AND EVEN
DIRECTION. NOT TO MENTION...THOSE AREAS THAT SEE APPRECIABLE RAIN
DURING THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS COULD HAVE FIRE DANGER MITIGATED
THESE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ040-041-047>049-
     061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY
FIRE WEATHER...FAY/PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 232044
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
344 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW SUNDAY. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE CNTL PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PRODUCE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVELY LARGE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY IN CANADA. THERE ARE
TWO MAIN PV ANOMALIES AMONGST THE TROUGH...THE FIRST HAD MOVED OUT
OF COLORADO AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE THE SECOND
WAS SEEN OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
HAD PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND AT 20Z WAS
ROUGHLY FROM K9V9 TO KBBW TO KMCK...THEN EXTENDING INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. HAVE BEEN SEEING CUMULUS ALONG THE FRONT IN KANSAS AND A
FEW CUMULUS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. JUST NOT GETTING ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT AT THE TIME TO BE GETTING PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP YET AS RADAR IS STILL QUIET ALONG THE FRONT. FURTHER TO THE
WEST OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...VERY NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IN THE TEENS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWING INCREASING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AS THAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY 00Z. THERE IS GOOD
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE AREA...SO WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES. THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. BY 06Z...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
STORMS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES END SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING SOME
STRONG WINDS...PRIMARILY TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE THE HIGHEST. COULD SEE AN HOUR OR SO OF SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE FAIRLY
SHORT LIVED...SO WILL NOT PUT ANY WIND HEADLINES OUT AT THIS TIME.

FOR THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FURTHER DISCUSSION ON FIRE
CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD WARMING DESPITE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 700MB...HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. IN ADDITION...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND DEEP MIXING...COULD GET SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WILL COALESCE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN PULLING A LATE SEASON ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA FRIDAY BUT DROP INTO NERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 990 MB OR PERHAPS DEEPER WILL SET UP ACROSS NERN COLO/ERN
WY/ERN MT SATURDAY POTENTIALLY SETTING UP A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GEM...NAM...ECM AND GFS ALL
SHOW 80S FOR HIGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FALLING TO 60S AND
70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
SOUTHWEST TO LOWER 60S NORTHEAST WHICH IS COOLER THAN ALL OF THE
MODEL FORECAST.

THE NAM AND THE ECM INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND LIGHT QPF SATURDAY AFTN SO ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB. A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLO.
THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE WEATHER FRIDAY IS VERY TRANQUIL. WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CNTL
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS NEARLY NEUTRAL WHICH SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO AROUND 985 MB ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A VERY DEEP 4 CORNERS UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS KS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW VERY STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUNDAY AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR GETTING DRAWN INTO
THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD SEND THE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO ERN NEB. HOWEVER THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE FCST AREA SUNDAY...COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SFC BASED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG CAPE...A WEAK CAP
AND 45 KT OF BULK SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SPC DAY 5 SEVERE OUTLOOK ACROSS NCNTL NEB.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH. H850MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KTS MONDAY AFTN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
STRONG WINDS COULD CONTINUE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY INTO MISSOURI.

THE RAIN CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND WRAP AROUND RAIN OR SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE RAIN COULD EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A 3 WAY
BLEND OF THE GEM...GFS AND ECM SUGGESTED AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
COVERING ALL OF THE FCST AREA BUT SOME MODELS WERE WETTER OR DRIER
IN THE SOUTHWEST VS THE NORTHEAST SO AMOUNTS WILL VARY. THE HPC FCST
PREDICTS 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 1 INCH IN THE
NORTHEAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL.

THE ECM STALLS THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS
PLACES THE FCST AREA IN NORTH WINDS AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S BUT A 3 WAY BLEND OF THE
GEM...GFS AND ECM INDICATED 70S AS THE WARM FRONT WOULD BE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR 60S SO AN
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WE
WILL BE WATCHING THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM AN ARCTIC
HIGH ACROSS CANADA WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40 TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WIND CONCERNS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM KIML TO KLBF TO KANW...WHILE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE A HIGHER THREAT EAST OF THIS LINE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GET A
REPRIEVE AFTER 06Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS MIXING THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO
RETURN. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LOCALLY...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. BUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. UNLESS A LOCATION SEES
A PASSING SHOWER OR STORMS TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEES DEEP MIXING
TO AROUND 700MB. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TODAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL DROP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN AROUND 15 PERCENT. WHAT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE
THE WINDS. THE GFS DOES HAVE WINDS OF 30KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...WHILE THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST WITH SPEEDS OF 20KTS. WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BELIEVE THE FASTER WIND SPEEDS WILL HAPPEN...BUT
WILL WAIT TO SEE IF MODELS GET ON BOARD WITH HIGHER WINDS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY FIRE HEADLINES. FOR FRIDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
LOW AGAIN...BUT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SO FIRE DANGER IS
NOT LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED. THEN LOOKING TO THE WEEKEND...A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...SO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KOAX 231945
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 12Z SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. STRONGEST 300 MB
WINDS WERE AROUND 120 KNOTS WITH A JETSTREAK MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH A MAX OF AROUND 130 METERS IN WESTERN WYOMING.
THERMAL RIDGE AT 700 MB WAS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT 850
MB...A NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE WAS SURGING NORTH INTO NEBRASKA
THAT ORIGINATES IN TEXAS.

AS OF 2 PM...CAP WAS WEAKENING TO OUR WEST AND STORMS SHOULD START TO
FIRE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. IT APPEARS THAT
THE HEAVIEST PCPN TONIGHT WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECT STORMS INITIALLY TO STAY MAINLY FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN PUSH EASTWARD. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD STAY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DEFINED
BY LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH LOOKS GOOD AND DOES AFFECT
PARTS OF OUR AREA. THE HIGHEST THREAT THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR... WITH AMOUNTS
OVER ONE INCH... AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.50 INCHES. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WEST OF
HIGHWAY 81 TO MID 50S NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER.

THURSDAY...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER IN OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE
MORNING BUT THE AFTN SHOULD BE DRY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP. JUST LOW LOW THEY DROP WILL BE
IMPORTANT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WE DO EXPECT VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. IF HEAVY RAIN DOES
NOT OCCUR AND DEWPOINTS END UP LOWER...EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS
POSSIBLE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN LOOK AT THAT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 60S OR AROUND 70.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS PCPN CHANCES WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 PERCENT. SOME
STORMS MAY FIRE UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER
EASTERN KANSAS OR POSSIBLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AS
HINTED AT BY THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON TSTM
CHANCES UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AND INSTABLILITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGH POPS UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THINGS ARE SIMILAR IN THIS PERIOD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD...WE EXPECT A TROUGH AT 500 MB TO BE OVER
THE ROCKIES...WITH TENDENCY FOR A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

THE 12Z CANADIAN AND ECWMF MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GFS. THAT TREND ALSO CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...
WHEN A CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER. EVEN AROUND THE WHOLE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THINGS. SO...WILL INTRODUCE SMALL PCPN CHANCES
FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN HOLD ONTO
POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
WE SHOULD DRY CONDITIONS...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WILL ADD VCTS OR TSRA AS NEEDED...DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS. TSRA POTENTIAL
INCREASES AT KOFK AFTER 00Z AND AT KLNK AND KOMA DURING THE
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK
FOR DETERIORATING MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z.SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 26KTS SUSTAINED
DECREASING AFTER 00Z... AND BECOMING NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-053-067-
     068-090>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 231729
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS
FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS
A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN
WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO
60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG
WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM
VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST
WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET
MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM
BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3
HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME
CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE
30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A
RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS
ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IN THE NAM.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN
ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN
A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION
OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL
OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR.
WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST
YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR
VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A
STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT
SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WIND CONCERNS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM KIML TO KLBF TO KANW...WHILE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE A HIGHER THREAT EAST OF THIS LINE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GET A
REPRIEVE AFTER 06Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS MIXING THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO
RETURN. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LOCALLY...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. BUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. UNLESS A LOCATION SEES
A PASSING SHOWER OR STORMS TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

CLOSELY WATCHING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS /FIRE ZONE 204/ FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT...NOW
LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO /WEST OF KHEQ/ NORTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA /NEAR KPHP/.
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO
700MB AND BELIEVE WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND DEWPOINTS A BIT
DRIER THAN HAD BEEN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. USING A MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINT...SOME PLACES COULD SEE VALUES DOWN NEAR 20F OR EVEN THE
LOW TEENS. THE FORECAST DOESN/T GO THIS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN THE COMING HOURS IF BY CHANCE A SHORT
FUSED RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KGID 231726
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1226 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION COMING UNDER INCREASINGLY
SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
SLIDING EAST...SET UP BETWEEN AN ARE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST COAST AND A TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN WRN
TROUGH...WORKING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO
AN INCREASED LLJ...HAS RESULTED IN SOME PRETTY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY AFFECTING THE NERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA...THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HERE AND
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT IT THUNDERSTORMS WONT
BE WIDESPREAD. AT THE SURFACE...THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE...AS THE
CWA SITS WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. SERLY WINDS ARE GENERALLY RANGING FROM 10 TO
20 MPH /FEW CLOSER TO 25 MPH/...AND GUSTING AT TIMES BETWEEN 25
AND 30 MPH.

THE MAIN STORY WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THAT AREA OF SCT PRECIP SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST...AND BY MID/LATE MORNING...MOST OF THE CWA LOOKS TO
BE DRY. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE HRRR/RAP/4KM WRF SUGGEST IT
MAY BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES WITH THE MODELS IN THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. STILL EXPECTING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH /ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SWRN CANADA/ TO CONTINUE SWING
EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND SET UP OVER SERN CO/SWRN
KS BY MID AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH
INTO WRN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE A
DRYLINE IS DEVELOPING FROM WRN KS INTO WRN TX. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STILL EXPECTING TO SEE A BREEZY/WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
CWA...AND WHILE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS/GUIDANCE
WITH HOW STRONG WINDS WILL GET...AM KEEPING THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY AS IS.

FOR OUR CWA...THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAYBE A FEW SLIGHT
VARIANCES...BUT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING INITIATION
OCCURRING OVER THE W/NWRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA MID/LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...MAYBE CLOSER TO 00Z IF YOU BELIEVE
SOME MODELS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND HIGHER
POPS ARRIVE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 00Z...WITH THE
MAIN TIME FRAME LOOKING TO BE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH MODELS
THEN SHOWING A GOOD PUSH EAST THROUGH. SOME SUGGEST AFTER 09Z
THERE ISNT MUCH LEFT AROUND IN OUR CWA...WE WILL SEE IF IT REALLY
MOVES OUT THAT QUICKLY.

ONE QUESTION THAT HAS BEEN ARND THE PAST FEW DAYS AND REMAINS EVEN
NOW IS WITH THE DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 24 HRS AGO...THOUGHT
THAT DEWPOINTS WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 40S OR SO BY
NOW...BUT THEY ARENT. 4 AM OBS ARE SHOWING LOW/MID 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH AN OB OR TWO CLOSER TO 40. LOOKING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA..DEWPOINTS DONT HIT 50 UNTIL YOU GET TO THE SRN
HALF OF OK. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE GOOD SRLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME WORK TO DO TO
GET THOSE INCREASED DEWPOINTS THIS FAR NORTH. STILL HAVE SOME
LOWER/MID 50S MAKING THEIR WAY INTO MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...WITH
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE LUCKY TO HIT 50.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE HIGHS FOR TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID
70S EAST TO LOWER 80S SW. MODELS STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...BUT THATS GOING TO
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS UP HERE. FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...AND WE REMAIN OUTLOOKED BY
SPC...WITH THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA. AGREE
WITH THE ASSESSMENT THAT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY...AND WILL
KEEP MENTION GOING IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

PRECEDED BY 2 OR 3 REASONABLY NICE DAYS...THE MAIN STORY IN THE
EXTENDED IS THE EMERGENCE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ONTO
THE PLAINS SUNDAY... AND THE SUBSEQUENT COOLING TREND AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

INITIALLY...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE PRETTY NICE DAYS FOR THE
MOST PART AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DESPITE COOLING AFTER
THE FRONT AND RAIN THANKS TO DOWN SLOPING WEST NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE MAIN ISSUE THURSDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TANK FURTHER
THAN CURRENT FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE MONDAY. GOOD MIXING WILL PUSH
WINDS INTO THE 20 MPH RANGE...AND WHEN COMBINED LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT TEETERS ON THE EDGE AND NOT
COMPLETELY CERTAIN.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLINKS INTO THE
AREA AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY. HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPERATURES A
GOOD 5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREA
BEING IN THE DEAD CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SATURDAY IS A
DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MORE CLOUDS LIKELY AS MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL A
BIT COOLER DESPITE TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS IN THERE.

THE CRUX OF FORECAST IS REALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO DOUBT A
LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS IT IS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW. IT WILL HANG
AROUND IN THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BY LATE SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN FURTHEST
NORTH...BUT SHIFTING SOUTH A BIT WITH THE 00Z RUN CLOSER TO THE
GFS/CANADIAN. THE POSITION IS IN IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT DOES
TRANSLATE FURTHER NORTH...MUCH OF THE FORECAST WILL EXPERIENCE
MORE OF DRY SLOT AND LESS PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IF
THE LOW IS FURTHER THE FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
AND THE FORECAST AREA MAY RECEIVE MORE NEEDED RAIN. POSITIONING
WILL ALSO IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE REGIME AND WHEN WE COOL DOWN MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE GIVEN EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT. THE FORECAST REFLECTS
30-40 PERCENT AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 25KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEST OF THE TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION
REACHING KGRI TOWARD THE EVENING. TSTMS THEN REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GENERALLY THROUGH 07Z. WINDS SWITCH
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND PCPN CHCS DECREASE BY
MORNING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEM MOVE PAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ040-041-047>049-
     061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 231641
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1141 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY AND EXTENDED
THE MORNING PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING HAD AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...HOWEVER MOST OF THE RH WAS H7 OR ABOVE. THE
15Z SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AROUND KEARNEY
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MUCH HIGHER 50S AND 60S DEWPOINTS
STREAMING NORTHWARD. THE SHOWERS AND ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WAS WITH THE FIRST AREA OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE...A
SHORTWAVE...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE H85 JET WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD WITH THE
50KT H85 MAX OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER BY 21Z.

THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING FETCH OF MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE.

THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS TREND AND THE
TREND THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 23Z AND THIS WOULD MOVE TOWARD THE
ALBION...COLUMBUS AREAS WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD DURING
THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SPOTTY SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SINCE
MIDNIGHT IN AREA OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEPICTED BY MODELS AND
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH. INSTABILITY RATHER LIMITED
THIS MORNING SO EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WORKING EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING.

MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. A PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE
FRONT. IN ADDITION...AN AXIS OF HIGH PW WILL BE IN PLACE FROM
TEXAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE
AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MID MORNING
TO MIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR
THURSDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT.

WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH REGION BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER THE EAST COAST AND WEST
COAST. WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE WEST COAST TROUGH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REGION FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO 00Z RUNS SHOW SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS IN LINGERING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
NATION DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WILL ADD VCTS OR TSRA AS NEEDED...DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS. TSRA POTENTIAL
INCREASES AT KOFK AFTER 00Z AND AT KLNK AND KOMA DURING THE
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK
FOR DETERIORATING MVFR CIGS WITH THE PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z.SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 26KTS SUSTAINED
DECREASING AFTER 00Z... AND BECOMING NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ045-052-053-067-
     068-090>093.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-
     080-090-091.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 231507
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1007 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS
FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS
A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN
WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO
60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG
WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM
VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST
WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET
MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM
BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3
HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME
CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE
30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A
RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS
ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IN THE NAM.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN
ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN
A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION
OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL
OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR.
WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST
YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR
VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A
STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT
SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AON 20000 FT AGL. BY 20Z CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FT AGL AS THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF KLBF FROM 20Z
THROUGH 02Z THURSDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS
RANGING FROM 12000 TO 15000 FT AGL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

CLOSELY WATCHING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS /FIRE ZONE 204/ FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT...NOW
LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO /WEST OF KHEQ/ NORTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA /NEAR KPHP/.
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO
700MB AND BELIEVE WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND DEWPOINTS A BIT
DRIER THAN HAD BEEN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. USING A MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINT...SOME PLACES COULD SEE VALUES DOWN NEAR 20F OR EVEN THE
LOW TEENS. THE FORECAST DOESN/T GO THIS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN THE COMING HOURS IF BY CHANCE A SHORT
FUSED RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 231133
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
633 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS
FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS
A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN
WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO
60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG
WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM
VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST
WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET
MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM
BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3
HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME
CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE
30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A
RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS
ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IN THE NAM.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN
ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN
A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION
OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL
OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR.
WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST
YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR
VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A
STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT
SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AON 20000 FT AGL. BY 20Z CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FT AGL AS THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF KLBF FROM 20Z
THROUGH 02Z THURSDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS
RANGING FROM 12000 TO 15000 FT AGL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KOAX 231132
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
632 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SPOTTY SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SINCE
MIDNIGHT IN AREA OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEPICTED BY MODELS AND
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH. INSTABILITY RATHER LIMITED
THIS MORNING SO EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WORKING EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING.

MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. A PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE
FRONT. IN ADDITION...AN AXIS OF HIGH PW WILL BE IN PLACE FROM
TEXAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE
AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MID MORNING
TO MIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR
THURSDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT.

WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH REGION BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER THE EAST COAST AND WEST
COAST. WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE WEST COAST TROUGH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REGION FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO 00Z RUNS SHOW SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS IN LINGERING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
NATION DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VFR CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH AFFECTING
TAF SITES INITIALLY...BUT SHOULD END AT KLNK BEFORE 14Z AND KOMA
BY 15Z. THEN WINDS BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY SPEEDS AT 23 TO 26 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 30S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AND A SHARP WIND SHIFT.
STORMS AT KOFK BY 23Z WITH COLD FRONT IN BY 03Z. STORMS AFFECTING
KLNK BY 03Z WITH FRONT ARRIVAL BY 07Z. STORMS AFFECTING KOMA BY
06Z WITH FRONT ARRIVAL BY 10Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-
     088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 231110
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
610 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION COMING UNDER INCREASINGLY
SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
SLIDING EAST...SET UP BETWEEN AN ARE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST COAST AND A TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN WRN
TROUGH...WORKING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO
AN INCREASED LLJ...HAS RESULTED IN SOME PRETTY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY AFFECTING THE NERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA...THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HERE AND
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT IT THUNDERSTORMS WONT
BE WIDESPREAD. AT THE SURFACE...THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE...AS THE
CWA SITS WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. SERLY WINDS ARE GENERALLY RANGING FROM 10 TO
20 MPH /FEW CLOSER TO 25 MPH/...AND GUSTING AT TIMES BETWEEN 25
AND 30 MPH.

THE MAIN STORY WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THAT AREA OF SCT PRECIP SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST...AND BY MID/LATE MORNING...MOST OF THE CWA LOOKS TO
BE DRY. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE HRRR/RAP/4KM WRF SUGGEST IT
MAY BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES WITH THE MODELS IN THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. STILL EXPECTING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH /ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SWRN CANADA/ TO CONTINUE SWING
EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND SET UP OVER SERN CO/SWRN
KS BY MID AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH
INTO WRN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE A
DRYLINE IS DEVELOPING FROM WRN KS INTO WRN TX. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STILL EXPECTING TO SEE A BREEZY/WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
CWA...AND WHILE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS/GUIDANCE
WITH HOW STRONG WINDS WILL GET...AM KEEPING THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY AS IS.

FOR OUR CWA...THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAYBE A FEW SLIGHT
VARIANCES...BUT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING INITIATION
OCCURRING OVER THE W/NWRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA MID/LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...MAYBE CLOSER TO 00Z IF YOU BELIEVE
SOME MODELS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND HIGHER
POPS ARRIVE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 00Z...WITH THE
MAIN TIME FRAME LOOKING TO BE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH MODELS
THEN SHOWING A GOOD PUSH EAST THROUGH. SOME SUGGEST AFTER 09Z
THERE ISNT MUCH LEFT AROUND IN OUR CWA...WE WILL SEE IF IT REALLY
MOVES OUT THAT QUICKLY.

ONE QUESTION THAT HAS BEEN ARND THE PAST FEW DAYS AND REMAINS EVEN
NOW IS WITH THE DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 24 HRS AGO...THOUGHT
THAT DEWPOINTS WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 40S OR SO BY
NOW...BUT THEY ARENT. 4 AM OBS ARE SHOWING LOW/MID 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH AN OB OR TWO CLOSER TO 40. LOOKING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA..DEWPOINTS DONT HIT 50 UNTIL YOU GET TO THE SRN
HALF OF OK. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE GOOD SRLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME WORK TO DO TO
GET THOSE INCREASED DEWPOINTS THIS FAR NORTH. STILL HAVE SOME
LOWER/MID 50S MAKING THEIR WAY INTO MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...WITH
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE LUCKY TO HIT 50.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE HIGHS FOR TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID
70S EAST TO LOWER 80S SW. MODELS STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...BUT THATS GOING TO
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS UP HERE. FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...AND WE REMAIN OUTLOOKED BY
SPC...WITH THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA. AGREE
WITH THE ASSESSMENT THAT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY...AND WILL
KEEP MENTION GOING IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

PRECEDED BY 2 OR 3 REASONABLY NICE DAYS...THE MAIN STORY IN THE
EXTENDED IS THE EMERGENCE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ONTO
THE PLAINS SUNDAY... AND THE SUBSEQUENT COOLING TREND AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

INITIALLY...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE PRETTY NICE DAYS FOR THE
MOST PART AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DESPITE COOLING AFTER
THE FRONT AND RAIN THANKS TO DOWN SLOPING WEST NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE MAIN ISSUE THURSDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TANK FURTHER
THAN CURRENT FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE MONDAY. GOOD MIXING WILL PUSH
WINDS INTO THE 20 MPH RANGE...AND WHEN COMBINED LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT TEETERS ON THE EDGE AND NOT
COMPLETELY CERTAIN.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLINKS INTO THE
AREA AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY. HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPERATURES A
GOOD 5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREA
BEING IN THE DEAD CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SATURDAY IS A
DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MORE CLOUDS LIKELY AS MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL A
BIT COOLER DESPITE TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS IN THERE.

THE CRUX OF FORECAST IS REALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO DOUBT A
LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS IT IS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW. IT WILL HANG
AROUND IN THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BY LATE SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN FURTHEST
NORTH...BUT SHIFTING SOUTH A BIT WITH THE 00Z RUN CLOSER TO THE
GFS/CANADIAN. THE POSITION IS IN IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT DOES
TRANSLATE FURTHER NORTH...MUCH OF THE FORECAST WILL EXPERIENCE
MORE OF DRY SLOT AND LESS PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IF
THE LOW IS FURTHER THE FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
AND THE FORECAST AREA MAY RECEIVE MORE NEEDED RAIN. POSITIONING
WILL ALSO IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE REGIME AND WHEN WE COOL DOWN MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE GIVEN EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT. THE FORECAST REFLECTS
30-40 PERCENT AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERNS REMAINING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HAD
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER MOVE THROUGH IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EAST...AND AM CURRENTLY
NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DIDNT CHANGE THE TIMING...STILL LOOKING AT LATE AFTERNOON FOR
ACTIVITY TO POTENTIAL MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL AREA...AND WILL KEEP
MENTION GOING WITH VCTS UNTIL THINGS ACTUALLY DEVELOP AND CAN GET
A BETTER IDEA OF TIMING/LOCATION. THINKING ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE
OFF TO THE EAST SOMEWHERE ARND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A MAJORITY
OF THE PERIOD WILL HAVE GUSTY S/SE WINDS...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINAL AREA THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A SWITCH NW WINDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ040-041-047>049-
     061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...ADO




000
FXUS63 KGID 230912
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
412 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION COMING UNDER INCREASINGLY
SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
SLIDING EAST...SET UP BETWEEN AN ARE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST COAST AND A TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN WRN
TROUGH...WORKING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO
AN INCREASED LLJ...HAS RESULTED IN SOME PRETTY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY AFFECTING THE NERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA...THERE ARE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HERE AND
THERE...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT IT THUNDERSTORMS WONT
BE WIDESPREAD. AT THE SURFACE...THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE...AS THE
CWA SITS WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. SERLY WINDS ARE GENERALLY RANGING FROM 10 TO
20 MPH /FEW CLOSER TO 25 MPH/...AND GUSTING AT TIMES BETWEEN 25
AND 30 MPH.

THE MAIN STORY WITH THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THAT AREA OF SCT PRECIP SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST...AND BY MID/LATE MORNING...MOST OF THE CWA LOOKS TO
BE DRY. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE HRRR/RAP/4KM WRF SUGGEST IT
MAY BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THERE REALLY
HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES WITH THE MODELS IN THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. STILL EXPECTING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH /ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SWRN CANADA/ TO CONTINUE SWING
EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND SET UP OVER SERN CO/SWRN
KS BY MID AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH
INTO WRN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE A
DRYLINE IS DEVELOPING FROM WRN KS INTO WRN TX. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STILL EXPECTING TO SEE A BREEZY/WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
CWA...AND WHILE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS/GUIDANCE
WITH HOW STRONG WINDS WILL GET...AM KEEPING THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY AS IS.

FOR OUR CWA...THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MAYBE A FEW SLIGHT
VARIANCES...BUT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING INITIATION
OCCURRING OVER THE W/NWRN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA MID/LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...MAYBE CLOSER TO 00Z IF YOU BELIEVE
SOME MODELS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND HIGHER
POPS ARRIVE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 00Z...WITH THE
MAIN TIME FRAME LOOKING TO BE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH MODELS
THEN SHOWING A GOOD PUSH EAST THROUGH. SOME SUGGEST AFTER 09Z
THERE ISNT MUCH LEFT AROUND IN OUR CWA...WE WILL SEE IF IT REALLY
MOVES OUT THAT QUICKLY.

ONE QUESTION THAT HAS BEEN ARND THE PAST FEW DAYS AND REMAINS EVEN
NOW IS WITH THE DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 24 HRS AGO...THOUGHT
THAT DEWPOINTS WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 40S OR SO BY
NOW...BUT THEY ARENT. 4 AM OBS ARE SHOWING LOW/MID 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA...WITH AN OB OR TWO CLOSER TO 40. LOOKING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA..DEWPOINTS DONT HIT 50 UNTIL YOU GET TO THE SRN
HALF OF OK. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE GOOD SRLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME WORK TO DO TO
GET THOSE INCREASED DEWPOINTS THIS FAR NORTH. STILL HAVE SOME
LOWER/MID 50S MAKING THEIR WAY INTO MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...WITH
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE LUCKY TO HIT 50.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE HIGHS FOR TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID
70S EAST TO LOWER 80S SW. MODELS STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...BUT THATS GOING TO
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS UP HERE. FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...AND WE REMAIN OUTLOOKED BY
SPC...WITH THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA. AGREE
WITH THE ASSESSMENT THAT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY...AND WILL
KEEP MENTION GOING IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

PRECEDED BY 2 OR 3 REASONABLY NICE DAYS...THE MAIN STORY IN THE
EXTENDED IS THE EMERGENCE OF A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ONTO
THE PLAINS SUNDAY... AND THE SUBSEQUENT COOLING TREND AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

INITIALLY...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE PRETTY NICE DAYS FOR THE
MOST PART AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE AREA. ON
THURSDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DESPITE COOLING AFTER
THE FRONT AND RAIN THANKS TO DOWN SLOPING WEST NORTHWEST WINDS.
THE MAIN ISSUE THURSDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TANK FURTHER
THAN CURRENT FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE MONDAY. GOOD MIXING WILL PUSH
WINDS INTO THE 20 MPH RANGE...AND WHEN COMBINED LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT TEETERS ON THE EDGE AND NOT
COMPLETELY CERTAIN.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLINKS INTO THE
AREA AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY. HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPERATURES A
GOOD 5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREA
BEING IN THE DEAD CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SATURDAY IS A
DAY OF TRANSITION WITH MORE CLOUDS LIKELY AS MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL A
BIT COOLER DESPITE TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS IN THERE.

THE CRUX OF FORECAST IS REALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO DOUBT A
LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS IT IS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW. IT WILL HANG
AROUND IN THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BY LATE SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN FURTHEST
NORTH...BUT SHIFTING SOUTH A BIT WITH THE 00Z RUN CLOSER TO THE
GFS/CANADIAN. THE POSITION IS IN IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT DOES
TRANSLATE FURTHER NORTH...MUCH OF THE FORECAST WILL EXPERIENCE
MORE OF DRY SLOT AND LESS PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IF
THE LOW IS FURTHER THE FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
AND THE FORECAST AREA MAY RECEIVE MORE NEEDED RAIN. POSITIONING
WILL ALSO IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE REGIME AND WHEN WE COOL DOWN MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE GIVEN EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT. THE FORECAST REFLECTS
30-40 PERCENT AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY GOING IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
IT REMAINING THAT WAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS NOT THE
HIGHEST...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PRECIP/THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN SOME RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
POINT...WITH THERE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION
OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP THE VCTS MENTION GOING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN...AS IT WILL BE A BREEZY/WINDY
TAF PERIOD. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING...SPEEDS
WILL TAPER OFF A BIT...BUT THEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ040-041-047>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...ADO




000
FXUS63 KLBF 230901
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
401 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS
FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS
A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN
WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO
60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG
WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM
VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST
WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET
MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM
BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3
HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME
CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE
30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A
RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS
ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IN THE NAM.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN
ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN
A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION
OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL
OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR.
WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST
YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR
VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A
STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT
SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2014

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 20 HOURS AT THE TAF
SITES AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
CHANCE IS RATHER LOW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IN THE VICINITY OF KLBF EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT TS MENTION AT KLBF
UNTIL MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL LOCATION/TIMING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG





000
FXUS63 KOAX 230801
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
301 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SPOTTY SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SINCE
MIDNIGHT IN AREA OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEPICTED BY MODELS AND
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH. INSTABILITY RATHER LIMITED
THIS MORNING SO EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WORKING EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING.

MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. A PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE
FRONT. IN ADDITION...AN AXIS OF HIGH PW WILL BE IN PLACE FROM
TEXAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE
AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MID MORNING
TO MIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR
THURSDAY AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT.

WEAKER SURFACE PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH REGION BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER THE EAST COAST AND WEST
COAST. WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE WEST COAST TROUGH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REGION FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO 00Z RUNS SHOW SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS IN LINGERING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
NATION DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SFC PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ACROSS ERN NEB...BUT LLWS WILL
REMAIN AN ISSUE THRU ABOUT 12Z WED MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING AREA OF -TSRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AREA WILL
MOVE THRU ERN NEB LATER THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR OCCASIONAL -TSRA/MVFR COND.

SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS ERN NEB TODAY WITH SLY WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 30KT.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WED EVENING THEN WHEN NEXT ROUND OF TSRA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH TEMPO GROUPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN MODELS HAVE BEEN
QUITE CONSISTENT ADVERTISING THIS STORM SYSTEM.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-
     088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KGID 230524
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED RIDGING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR HAS BEEN WORKING
EASTWARD AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S/70S AIDED BY
GOOD MIXING IN A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE MO RIVER AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES. SO FAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
BEEN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
WILL MONITOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE SFC
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH
REACH THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
STEADY/GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 50KTS TONIGHT
AND IN WAA REGIME WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THIS TO SOME DEGREE INDICATING THAT THE POTENTIAL IS MORE ISOLATED
AND CONFINED MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR CWA...MORE
IN LINE ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY
WHERE CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY FORM AS IT WILL BE HIT OR MISS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED TO SMALL CHC POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EDGES CLOSER TO THE PLAINS. THE FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KS.
HAVE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH SFC DPS RISING TO AROUND 50F OR
IN THE LOW 50S...AND INSTABILITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1000 AND
1500 J/KG IN THE AFTN. AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ADVANCING SE ACROSS NEB AND THE
DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON 12Z WRF MODEL TIMING...CONVECTIVE INITIATION
FAVORS THE 22Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING BY 00Z. SHEAR PROGS ARE AROUND 30KTS...AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/FOCUS ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL/QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE THE ONLY CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS
WILL BE VERY STRONG/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING INITIALLY CLOSE TO H85 IN THE MORNING AND
DEEPENING TO H7 OR JUST ABOVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY DURING THE DAY. HOW
FAR WEST TO GO WITH HEADLINE IS TRICKY AS WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES IN...BUT DECIDED TO BUFFER A ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE
WEST IN CASE THINGS SLOW DOWN...AND END TIMING OF HEADLINE CAN BE
ADJUSTED/CANCELLED EARLIER THAN OUR EASTERN AREAS. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING...3HR PRESSURE RISES ARE GREATER THAN
5MB SO STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...JUST BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MUCAPE IS BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND DECREASES BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE EVENING HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE SUN WILL COME OUT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE AROUND
70 DEGREES. THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY THEN STARTS TO CIRCLE THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A DRY SLOT THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD WHERE THERE WAS
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME AND HAVE LOWERED POPS JUST A
LITTLE. AS THE LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND AND BACK INTO THE AREA.
THE MODELS BRING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT
THE TREND HAS BEEN A LITTLE WARMER SO EVEN THOUGH THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND ZERO DEG C GET NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE KEPT JUST RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW BRINGS IN COLDER AIR FOR MONDAY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND PULLS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY GOING IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
IT REMAINING THAT WAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS NOT THE
HIGHEST...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PRECIP/THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN SOME RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
POINT...WITH THERE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION
OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP THE VCTS MENTION GOING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN...AS IT WILL BE A BREEZY/WINDY
TAF PERIOD. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING...SPEEDS
WILL TAPER OFF A BIT...BUT THEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ040-041-047>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADO




000
FXUS63 KLBF 230502
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1202 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATE INCLUDED FRESHENING UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. LATE
TONIGHT...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY INCREASING IN THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE LATEST RAP HAS
400-700 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE NORTHEAST LATE. WILL WAIT FOR
LATEST NAM BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO PRECIP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM  CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. A GOOD FETCH OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SEEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS BROUGHT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRETY
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH FREQUENT SPEEDS OF 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW BROUGHT WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE DEW POINTS INCREASED INTO THE 40S IN PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN DEW POINTS...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR...CLOUD BASES WERE
AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED AREAS
OVER THE PANHANDLE HAD BUILT UP TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE. WITH SUFFICIENT
LIFT ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...AND WILL SLOWLY MAKE
AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THIS EVENING.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOME INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH...WITH 100-200 J/KG. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THE ONE THING TO
WATCH WILL BE IF THE INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ACROSS THE AREA...DON/T THINK THE LLJ WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AND DON/T EXPECT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STAYS TIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TONIGHT...SO LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL STAY STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH BY 18Z LOOKS TO BE
ROUGHLY FROM KMCK TO KONL. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WHEN
WINDS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD OF THE HIGHEST WINDS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
06Z TO 15Z...BUT WITH IT BEING IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
NOT SUBSIDENT AIR...AND ALSO IT BEING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DON/T
KNOW IF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.

THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
DEW POINTS RISING UP AROUND 50 OR HIGHER. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT WILL DEPEND WHAT AREAS SEE RAINFALL. DID PUSH CHANCES EAST
SLIGHTLY...BUT THINK THE STORMS MAY SKIRT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHEREVER STORMS DO FORM...THEY WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO EVEN SEVERE AS STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LEVEL SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS QUITE DYNAMIC. WILL BE
WATCHING THESE CHANCES CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INITIAL UPPER PV ANOMALY ROTATING ACROSS MT THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY...BUT AS
THE NEXT ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EWD IT WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WED NIGHT...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN KS SWD INTO
WEST TX. BY WED NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE LBF CWA
AND WILL TREND THE PRECIP CHCS EWD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN DRY
WHICH THE CURRENT GFCST HAS HANDLED WELL.

UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS TRANSITORY
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS REMAINING. THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP IN TO THE TEENS IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DESPITE
THE AREA NEING IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TEMPS WILL REACH ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS UNDER FULL SUN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
PLAINS.

NEXT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER CA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODEL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS TO HOW THIS NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER EVOLVES. THE 22.12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM THE 22.00Z RUN...MOVING THE WARM FRONT
MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LATEST RUN...LOCATED OVER NRN NEB INTO
SRM SD. THE POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE WITH
THE SYSTEM EVOLVING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME AS ALL
MODELS DO...THE LEAD UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT INITIALLY AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD LOWER LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BOTH AMOUNT AND TYPE OF SEVERE...RESTS HEAVILY WITH THE
POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT. GFS POSITIONS THE WARM FRONT IN
KS...FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND SIMILAR TO THE 22.12Z RUN OF
THE CANADIAN MODEL. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DETAILS OF WHICH WILL HAVE TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO CUT OFF
THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND REDEVELOP IT ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN SOME FASHION...BUT AGAIN TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
UNSETTLED...COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP...INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE POSITION DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
COLDER. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2014

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 20 HOURS AT THE TAF
SITES AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
CHANCE IS RATHER LOW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IN THE VICINITY OF KLBF EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT TS MENTION AT KLBF
UNTIL MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL LOCATION/TIMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 433 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL HEIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AS DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 PERCENT WITH WINDS BLOWING AT 15 TO 25
MPH. THEN ON THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
DEW POINTS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S WILL EQUATE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO NEAR 15
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO HOW STRONG THEY WILL GET. BOTH DAYS ARE
LOOKING TO HAVE NEAR HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT MAY STAY
JUST UNDER CRITICAL LEVELS. WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING THIS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KOAX 230501
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1201 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CENTERED AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH
IMPRESSIVE 130M HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND AHEAD OF IT...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. AHEAD OF ALL OF
THIS...STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING BOTH WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. AN FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING UP UNDER THE ACCAS FIELD OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THIS BUT WITH LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE AREA JUST YET...THINK THESE WILL FADE AS
THEY APPROACH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS THIS EVENING. NOCTURNAL 850MB
WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KTS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP ADVECT +8 TO +10C DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING TSTM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE STRENGTHENING LLVL JET. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD
NOW AND THE APPROACHING HIGH PLAINS LOW WILL BRING QUITE GUSTY
WINDS TO THE AREA WED MORNING AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR WEST AND NORTH FROM 15-21Z.

EXPECT A LULL IN TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL BE ENTERING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THU WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME WITH BULK 0-6KM
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50KTS. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. PW`S BY EARLY EVENING DO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.50" SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH CENTRAL NEB BY 12Z
THURSDAY WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT WELL INTO IOWA BY THAT TIME.
LINGERING POST FRONTAL PCPN IS QUITE POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE MORNING.

BROAD/WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE TO SOME
DEGREE AS TO HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPSTREAM KICKER. THE 00Z ECMWF IS HOLDING
ONTO THIS TROUGH INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD BE THE
IMPETUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON.
AS LARGER-SCALE FORCING INCREASES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. THE 00Z GFS/GEM WOULD THEN SHIFT THIS FORCING/PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD CONTINUE
SOME THREAT INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF
ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION...GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT WILL CONT WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITH THE PRECIP AND CAA ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
THE INCREASE FOR MON/TUE AS A WESTERN US RIDGE DEVELOPS EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SFC PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ACROSS ERN NEB...BUT LLWS WILL
REMAIN AN ISSUE THRU ABOUT 12Z WED MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING AREA OF -TSRA ACTIVITY CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AREA WILL
MOVE THRU ERN NEB LATER THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR OCCASIONAL -TSRA/MVFR COND.

SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS ERN NEB TODAY WITH SLY WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 30KT.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO WED EVENING THEN WHEN NEXT ROUND OF TSRA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH TEMPO GROUPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN MODELS HAVE BEEN
QUITE CONSISTENT ADVERTISING THIS STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KLBF 230124
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
824 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATE INCLUDED FRESHENING UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. LATE
TONIGHT...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY INCREASING IN THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE LATEST RAP HAS
400-700 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE NORTHEAST LATE. WILL WAIT FOR
LATEST NAM BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO PRECIP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM  CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. A GOOD FETCH OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SEEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS BROUGHT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRETY
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH FREQUENT SPEEDS OF 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW BROUGHT WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE DEW POINTS INCREASED INTO THE 40S IN PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN DEW POINTS...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR...CLOUD BASES WERE
AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED AREAS
OVER THE PANHANDLE HAD BUILT UP TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE. WITH SUFFICIENT
LIFT ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...AND WILL SLOWLY MAKE
AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THIS EVENING.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOME INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH...WITH 100-200 J/KG. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THE ONE THING TO
WATCH WILL BE IF THE INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ACROSS THE AREA...DON/T THINK THE LLJ WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AND DON/T EXPECT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STAYS TIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TONIGHT...SO LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL STAY STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH BY 18Z LOOKS TO BE
ROUGHLY FROM KMCK TO KONL. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WHEN
WINDS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD OF THE HIGHEST WINDS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
06Z TO 15Z...BUT WITH IT BEING IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
NOT SUBSIDENT AIR...AND ALSO IT BEING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DON/T
KNOW IF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.

THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
DEW POINTS RISING UP AROUND 50 OR HIGHER. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT WILL DEPEND WHAT AREAS SEE RAINFALL. DID PUSH CHANCES EAST
SLIGHTLY...BUT THINK THE STORMS MAY SKIRT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHEREVER STORMS DO FORM...THEY WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO EVEN SEVERE AS STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LEVEL SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS QUITE DYNAMIC. WILL BE
WATCHING THESE CHANCES CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INITIAL UPPER PV ANOMALY ROTATING ACROSS MT THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY...BUT AS
THE NEXT ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EWD IT WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WED NIGHT...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN KS SWD INTO
WEST TX. BY WED NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE LBF CWA
AND WILL TREND THE PRECIP CHCS EWD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN DRY
WHICH THE CURRENT GFCST HAS HANDLED WELL.

UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS TRANSITORY
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS REMAINING. THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP IN TO THE TEENS IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DESPITE
THE AREA NEING IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TEMPS WILL REACH ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS UNDER FULL SUN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
PLAINS.

NEXT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER CA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODEL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS TO HOW THIS NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER EVOLVES. THE 22.12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM THE 22.00Z RUN...MOVING THE WARM FRONT
MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LATEST RUN...LOCATED OVER NRN NEB INTO
SRM SD. THE POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE WITH
THE SYSTEM EVOLVING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME AS ALL
MODELS DO...THE LEAD UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT INITIALLY AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD LOWER LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BOTH AMOUNT AND TYPE OF SEVERE...RESTS HEAVILY WITH THE
POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT. GFS POSITIONS THE WARM FRONT IN
KS...FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND SIMILAR TO THE 22.12Z RUN OF
THE CANADIAN MODEL. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DETAILS OF WHICH WILL HAVE TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO CUT OFF
THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND REDEVELOP IT ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN SOME FASHION...BUT AGAIN TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
UNSETTLED...COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP...INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE POSITION DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
COLDER. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LATEST TAF ISSUANCE HIGHLIGHTS WINDS PRIMARILY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AT THE TERMINALS...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT
BELIEVE LIKELIHOOD OF A TS NEAR A TERMINAL IS VERY LOW.
TOMORROW....A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP OUT
OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF KLBF AND KVTN BY
THE TIME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AT KLBF TO FAVOR A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE TERMINAL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE
LOOKING CLOSELY AT THE NEW MODEL DATA THIS EVENING FOR FRONT
TIMING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 433 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL HEIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AS DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 PERCENT WITH WINDS BLOWING AT 15 TO 25
MPH. THEN ON THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
DEW POINTS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S WILL EQUATE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO NEAR 15
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO HOW STRONG THEY WILL GET. BOTH DAYS ARE
LOOKING TO HAVE NEAR HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT MAY STAY
JUST UNDER CRITICAL LEVELS. WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING THIS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KGID 230122
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
822 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED RIDGING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR HAS BEEN WORKING
EASTWARD AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S/70S AIDED BY
GOOD MIXING IN A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE MO RIVER AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES. SO FAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
BEEN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
WILL MONITOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE SFC
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH
REACH THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
STEADY/GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS TO 50KTS TONIGHT
AND IN WAA REGIME WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THIS TO SOME DEGREE INDICATING THAT THE POTENTIAL IS MORE ISOLATED
AND CONFINED MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF OUR CWA...MORE
IN LINE ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY
WHERE CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY FORM AS IT WILL BE HIT OR MISS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED TO SMALL CHC POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE FORECAST TURNS MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EDGES CLOSER TO THE PLAINS. THE FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN KS.
HAVE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH SFC DPS RISING TO AROUND 50F OR
IN THE LOW 50S...AND INSTABILITY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1000 AND
1500 J/KG IN THE AFTN. AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ADVANCING SE ACROSS NEB AND THE
DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON 12Z WRF MODEL TIMING...CONVECTIVE INITIATION
FAVORS THE 22Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING BY 00Z. SHEAR PROGS ARE AROUND 30KTS...AND
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT/FOCUS ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL/QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE THE ONLY CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS
WILL BE VERY STRONG/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING INITIALLY CLOSE TO H85 IN THE MORNING AND
DEEPENING TO H7 OR JUST ABOVE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY DURING THE DAY. HOW
FAR WEST TO GO WITH HEADLINE IS TRICKY AS WINDS WILL DECREASE AS
BOUNDARY MOVES IN...BUT DECIDED TO BUFFER A ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE
WEST IN CASE THINGS SLOW DOWN...AND END TIMING OF HEADLINE CAN BE
ADJUSTED/CANCELLED EARLIER THAN OUR EASTERN AREAS. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING...3HR PRESSURE RISES ARE GREATER THAN
5MB SO STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...JUST BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND TEMPERATURES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MUCAPE IS BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND DECREASES BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE EVENING HOURS.

BY THURSDAY MORNING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE SUN WILL COME OUT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT SHOULD STILL BE AROUND
70 DEGREES. THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY THEN STARTS TO CIRCLE THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A DRY SLOT THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD WHERE THERE WAS
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME AND HAVE LOWERED POPS JUST A
LITTLE. AS THE LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND AND BACK INTO THE AREA.
THE MODELS BRING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT
THE TREND HAS BEEN A LITTLE WARMER SO EVEN THOUGH THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND ZERO DEG C GET NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE KEPT JUST RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW BRINGS IN COLDER AIR FOR MONDAY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND PULLS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST. A STEADY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A SHORT LULL DURING THE EARLY EVENING WHEN WIND IS
NEAR 15 KTS OR SO...BUT IF THIS HAPPENS...GUSTINESS WILL RETURN IN
SHORT ORDER AS A PROMINENT LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE TERMINAL. BY OVERNIGHT...WINDS NEAR 1500 FT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTIONING LLWS...DESPITE THE
FAIRLY GUSTY SURFACE WIND. THIS WILL DECREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WIND WILL BE QUITE GUSTY DURING THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BE JUST AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS FORECAST...BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME DEVELOPMENT JUST BEFORE THE END OF THIS
FORECAST...SO VCTS WAS INCLUDED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




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