Home > Products > State Listing > Nebraska Data
Latest:
 AFDLBF |  AFDGID |  AFDOAX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGID 280047
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
747 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

BACKED OFF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST...AND THEN RAMPED UP CHANCES MORE TOWARD
LATE OVERNIGHT...AS IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL TAKE AWHILE LONGER FOR
THE CONVECTION IN THE WEST TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT.  FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WIND COULD
ALSO GUST A BIT WITH SOME MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 280047
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
747 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

BACKED OFF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST...AND THEN RAMPED UP CHANCES MORE TOWARD
LATE OVERNIGHT...AS IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL TAKE AWHILE LONGER FOR
THE CONVECTION IN THE WEST TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT.  FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WIND COULD
ALSO GUST A BIT WITH SOME MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 280000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT.  FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WIND COULD
ALSO GUST A BIT WITH SOME MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 280000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT.  FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WIND COULD
ALSO GUST A BIT WITH SOME MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 280000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT.  FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WIND COULD
ALSO GUST A BIT WITH SOME MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 280000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT.  FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WIND COULD
ALSO GUST A BIT WITH SOME MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLBF 272339 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
639 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA ONGOING IN THE SW NEB PANHANDLE
NEAR WY BORDER AND ALSO IN NERN CO. THOSE IN THE NEB PANHANDLE ARE
MORE ORGANIZED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN
SERN WY. ISOLD WEAKER CONVECTION NOTED IN THE NRN PANHANDLE. FURTHER
SOUTH IN NERN CO IS WHERE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS AND BASED ON SPC
MESOANALYSIS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. DISCRETE SUPERCELL IN NERN CO IS MOVING
SLOWLY AND APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG WARM FRONT WHICH IS SLOWLY
MOVING NWD. NERN CO STORM IS ASSISTED BY WEAK PV ANOMALY BUT IN THE
AREA OF 3K SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AND ALONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
GRADIENT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO INCREASING ALONG BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO CO...AND MORE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WARM
FRONT IN KS. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND OTHER CAMS AND INCLUDING CAPS 20
MEMBER ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THESE TWO AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EWD AND WILL AFFECT THE WRN CAW THIS EVENING...THOUGH MOST SUGGEST A
WEAKENING TREND WITH THE STORMS THAT MOVE OUT OF THE PANHANDLE...AND
THE MORE ROBUST STORMS IN NERN CO SHOULD MOVE INTO NWRN KS AND BE
REINFORCED BY A DEVELOPING LLJ THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD MEAN
PROPAGATION VECTORS SHOULD BECOME MORE SERLY ORIENTED. MOISTURE HAS
BEEN POOLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN KS...AND KLBF HAS
GOTTEN TO 56 CURRENTLY.

ALTHOUGH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...PROJECTED
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN SWRN NEB...SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE
ROBUST PV ANOMALY WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY
LATER AFTERNOON. AS THIS UPPER FORCING ENHANCES THE LIFT ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL THETA GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY OVER WRN KS
AND INTO WRN NEBR...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY
AFTERNOON. GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH ITS PREFRONTAL TROF POSITION BY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DEVELOPS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MUCH FURTHER E
INTO CENTRAL AND NERN NEB BY THU AFTERNOON. THE NAM ON THE OTHER
HAND SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT IN NWRN KS AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBR
DURING THE EVENING. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATER FOR THE AREA TMRW...AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO
BE GREATER WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVENTUAL CAPE
BY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PW VALUES INCREASING
TO OVER AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PROJECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND THETA-E
INDICATES THAT WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
0-2KM THETA-E GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS. THE STRONG CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF NEBRASKA ZONES. HOWEVER...IT
SEEMS THAT...OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO ANYWAY...THE LOCAL AREA HAS
HAD MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL WITH BULK SHEAR SEEMINGLY NOT FAVORABLE.
AT TIMES...STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH 15-25KT BULK SHEAR HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING 1 INCH HAIL. THE PROJECTED SCENARIO
THURSDAY EVENING SHOWS A NARROW FINGER OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OF 2500-3500J/KG EXTENDING OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND
2000-3000J/KG 800MB BASED POTENTIAL WITH 15-25KT BULK SHEAR IN THE
0-6KM LAYER...BUT THE HODOGRAPH AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THOUGH
THERE ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WE
WILL NOT INCLUDE THE WORDING FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH COME ACROSS NEBRASKA FRIDAY WITH
875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF 0C TO -2C AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BRING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PUSHED AGAINST THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A
REPRIEVE IN THE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW
LEVEL THETA-E THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS GULF MOISTURE TRACES A SOMEWHAT
CIRCUITOUS TRAJECTORY FROM TEXAS ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A MORE
DIRECT TRAJECTORY DEVELOPING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES BETTER DEVELOPED WITH A SHARP THETA-E
GRADIENT...A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN APPROPRIATE POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE SREF AND OTHER MODELS SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR AND EVEN
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING 06Z-15Z TONIGHT CENTERED OVER NORTH PLATTE.
THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR/MVFR AROUND 18Z. THE SREF
SUGGEST FOG ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS BETWEEN KAIA AND KTIF ALSO.

OTHERWISE ISOLD/SCT TSTMS THIS EVENING SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE FCST AREA. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THEY REACH
HWY 183 AROUND 04Z-06Z WHEREIN THEY COULD INTENSIFY IN DEEPER
MOISTURE.

ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT WRN NEB 21Z-00Z THURSDAY. THE
NAM SUGGESTED STORM ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN WEST OF KVTN/KLBF
THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. FCST CREST
HEIGHT FOR LISCO IS HALF A FOOT LOWER WITH THIS MORNINGS FCST BASED
ON LESSER AMOUNTS OF WATER DUE TO RELEASES UPSTREAM...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST. PLEASE SEE FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES ITS RISE FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH
PLATTE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RISES DUE TO
RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO RECENTLY...PAIRED WITH
THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE ROCKIES. THE JULESBURG GAGE IS
SHOWING THE CREST HAS LIKELY PASSED THERE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE BASIN. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION
FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...JWS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 272339 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
639 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA ONGOING IN THE SW NEB PANHANDLE
NEAR WY BORDER AND ALSO IN NERN CO. THOSE IN THE NEB PANHANDLE ARE
MORE ORGANIZED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN
SERN WY. ISOLD WEAKER CONVECTION NOTED IN THE NRN PANHANDLE. FURTHER
SOUTH IN NERN CO IS WHERE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS AND BASED ON SPC
MESOANALYSIS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. DISCRETE SUPERCELL IN NERN CO IS MOVING
SLOWLY AND APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG WARM FRONT WHICH IS SLOWLY
MOVING NWD. NERN CO STORM IS ASSISTED BY WEAK PV ANOMALY BUT IN THE
AREA OF 3K SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AND ALONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
GRADIENT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO INCREASING ALONG BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO CO...AND MORE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WARM
FRONT IN KS. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND OTHER CAMS AND INCLUDING CAPS 20
MEMBER ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THESE TWO AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EWD AND WILL AFFECT THE WRN CAW THIS EVENING...THOUGH MOST SUGGEST A
WEAKENING TREND WITH THE STORMS THAT MOVE OUT OF THE PANHANDLE...AND
THE MORE ROBUST STORMS IN NERN CO SHOULD MOVE INTO NWRN KS AND BE
REINFORCED BY A DEVELOPING LLJ THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD MEAN
PROPAGATION VECTORS SHOULD BECOME MORE SERLY ORIENTED. MOISTURE HAS
BEEN POOLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN KS...AND KLBF HAS
GOTTEN TO 56 CURRENTLY.

ALTHOUGH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...PROJECTED
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN SWRN NEB...SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE
ROBUST PV ANOMALY WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY
LATER AFTERNOON. AS THIS UPPER FORCING ENHANCES THE LIFT ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL THETA GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY OVER WRN KS
AND INTO WRN NEBR...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY
AFTERNOON. GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH ITS PREFRONTAL TROF POSITION BY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DEVELOPS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MUCH FURTHER E
INTO CENTRAL AND NERN NEB BY THU AFTERNOON. THE NAM ON THE OTHER
HAND SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT IN NWRN KS AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBR
DURING THE EVENING. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATER FOR THE AREA TMRW...AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO
BE GREATER WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVENTUAL CAPE
BY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PW VALUES INCREASING
TO OVER AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PROJECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND THETA-E
INDICATES THAT WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
0-2KM THETA-E GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS. THE STRONG CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF NEBRASKA ZONES. HOWEVER...IT
SEEMS THAT...OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO ANYWAY...THE LOCAL AREA HAS
HAD MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL WITH BULK SHEAR SEEMINGLY NOT FAVORABLE.
AT TIMES...STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH 15-25KT BULK SHEAR HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING 1 INCH HAIL. THE PROJECTED SCENARIO
THURSDAY EVENING SHOWS A NARROW FINGER OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OF 2500-3500J/KG EXTENDING OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND
2000-3000J/KG 800MB BASED POTENTIAL WITH 15-25KT BULK SHEAR IN THE
0-6KM LAYER...BUT THE HODOGRAPH AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THOUGH
THERE ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WE
WILL NOT INCLUDE THE WORDING FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH COME ACROSS NEBRASKA FRIDAY WITH
875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF 0C TO -2C AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BRING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PUSHED AGAINST THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A
REPRIEVE IN THE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW
LEVEL THETA-E THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS GULF MOISTURE TRACES A SOMEWHAT
CIRCUITOUS TRAJECTORY FROM TEXAS ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A MORE
DIRECT TRAJECTORY DEVELOPING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES BETTER DEVELOPED WITH A SHARP THETA-E
GRADIENT...A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN APPROPRIATE POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE SREF AND OTHER MODELS SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR AND EVEN
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING 06Z-15Z TONIGHT CENTERED OVER NORTH PLATTE.
THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR/MVFR AROUND 18Z. THE SREF
SUGGEST FOG ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS BETWEEN KAIA AND KTIF ALSO.

OTHERWISE ISOLD/SCT TSTMS THIS EVENING SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE FCST AREA. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THEY REACH
HWY 183 AROUND 04Z-06Z WHEREIN THEY COULD INTENSIFY IN DEEPER
MOISTURE.

ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT WRN NEB 21Z-00Z THURSDAY. THE
NAM SUGGESTED STORM ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN WEST OF KVTN/KLBF
THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. FCST CREST
HEIGHT FOR LISCO IS HALF A FOOT LOWER WITH THIS MORNINGS FCST BASED
ON LESSER AMOUNTS OF WATER DUE TO RELEASES UPSTREAM...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST. PLEASE SEE FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES ITS RISE FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH
PLATTE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RISES DUE TO
RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO RECENTLY...PAIRED WITH
THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE ROCKIES. THE JULESBURG GAGE IS
SHOWING THE CREST HAS LIKELY PASSED THERE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE BASIN. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION
FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...JWS







000
FXUS63 KGID 272034
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
334 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT.  FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ALSO. THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE PRECIP TIMING. SOME
MODELS BRING IT IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND OTHERS BRING IT IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL BE
AROUND THE TAFS SITES AROUND 00Z AND WILL MOVE OUT WHICH ONLY A
FEW MODELS SHOW. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SECOND STRONGER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...BEDA



000
FXUS63 KGID 272034
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
334 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT.  FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ALSO. THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE PRECIP TIMING. SOME
MODELS BRING IT IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND OTHERS BRING IT IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL BE
AROUND THE TAFS SITES AROUND 00Z AND WILL MOVE OUT WHICH ONLY A
FEW MODELS SHOW. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SECOND STRONGER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...BEDA




000
FXUS63 KGID 272034
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
334 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT.  FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ALSO. THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE PRECIP TIMING. SOME
MODELS BRING IT IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND OTHERS BRING IT IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL BE
AROUND THE TAFS SITES AROUND 00Z AND WILL MOVE OUT WHICH ONLY A
FEW MODELS SHOW. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SECOND STRONGER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...BEDA



000
FXUS63 KGID 272034
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
334 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT.  FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ALSO. THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE PRECIP TIMING. SOME
MODELS BRING IT IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND OTHERS BRING IT IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL BE
AROUND THE TAFS SITES AROUND 00Z AND WILL MOVE OUT WHICH ONLY A
FEW MODELS SHOW. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SECOND STRONGER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...BEDA



000
FXUS63 KGID 272034
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
334 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT.  FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ALSO. THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE PRECIP TIMING. SOME
MODELS BRING IT IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND OTHERS BRING IT IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL BE
AROUND THE TAFS SITES AROUND 00Z AND WILL MOVE OUT WHICH ONLY A
FEW MODELS SHOW. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SECOND STRONGER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...BEDA



000
FXUS63 KGID 272034
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
334 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN INVOLVES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE WEST BUT DID
SEE AT 60 METER HEIGHT RISE OVER OMAHA. A CLOSED LOW WAS ALSO NOTED
NEAR THE WA/OR/ID BORDER. FINALLY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
ALSO SEEN MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHWEST NEB. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS PARKED
OVER US LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. AT 18Z RADAR SHOWED AN
AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...AS EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW
OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR BUT MOST IF NOT ALL SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN WEST.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT IS GOING TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS EXACTLY WHERE. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO EXAMINE BUT THE PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THEM. THE HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SEEM TO
INITIALIZE PRETTY WELL BUT DIVERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NMM
GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHILE
THE ARW KEEPS THING MAINLY IN KS. THE 14Z RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO
OVERDO PRECIP EARLY ON IN NEB AND THEN LATER THIS EVENING KEEPS
CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80 AND ACROSS KS. MEANWHILE THE 4KM WRF FROM
SPC GRADUALLY FIZZLES OUT THE SHOWERS/WEAK CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING NOW AND REDEVELOPS CONVECTION ACROSS KS THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT.  FINALLY THE 12Z RUN OF THE HOP WRF FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN REGARDS TO RAIN. WOULD LIKE TO COMPARE THIS TO
THE 15Z RUN BEFORE FINALIZING THE GRIDS. ONE ISSUE IS THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO BE THE SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVES. AM LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE POPS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL WAVES BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STAY
WEST OF US SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ALSO. THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE PRECIP TIMING. SOME
MODELS BRING IT IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND OTHERS BRING IT IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL BE
AROUND THE TAFS SITES AROUND 00Z AND WILL MOVE OUT WHICH ONLY A
FEW MODELS SHOW. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SECOND STRONGER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...BEDA



000
FXUS63 KLBF 272011
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
311 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA ONGOING IN THE SW NEB PANHANDLE
NEAR WY BORDER AND ALSO IN NERN CO. THOSE IN THE NEB PANHANDLE ARE
MORE ORGANIZED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN
SERN WY. ISOLD WEAKER CONVECTION NOTED IN THE NRN PANHANDLE. FURTHER
SOUTH IN NERN CO IS WHERE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS AND BASED ON SPC
MESOANALYSIS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. DISCRETE SUPERCELL IN NERN CO IS MOVING
SLOWLY AND APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG WARM FRONT WHICH IS SLOWLY
MOVING NWD. NERN CO STORM IS ASSISTED BY WEAK PV ANOMALY BUT IN THE
AREA OF 3K SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AND ALONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
GRADIENT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO INCREASING ALONG BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO CO...AND MORE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WARM
FRONT IN KS. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND OTHER CAMS AND INCLUDING CAPS 20
MEMBER ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THESE TWO AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EWD AND WILL AFFECT THE WRN CAW THIS EVENING...THOUGH MOST SUGGEST A
WEAKENING TREND WITH THE STORMS THAT MOVE OUT OF THE PANHANDLE...AND
THE MORE ROBUST STORMS IN NERN CO SHOULD MOVE INTO NWRN KS AND BE
REINFORCED BY A DEVELOPING LLJ THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD MEAN
PROPAGATION VECTORS SHOULD BECOME MORE SERLY ORIENTED. MOISTURE HAS
BEEN POOLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN KS...AND KLBF HAS
GOTTEN TO 56 CURRENTLY.

ALTHOUGH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...PROJECTED
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN SWRN NEB...SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE
ROBUST PV ANOMALY WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY
LATER AFTERNOON. AS THIS UPPER FORCING ENHANCES THE LIFT ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL THETA GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY OVER WRN KS
AND INTO WRN NEBR...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY
AFTERNOON. GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH ITS PREFRONTAL TROF POSITION BY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DEVELOPS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MUCH FURTHER E
INTO CENTRAL AND NERN NEB BY THU AFTERNOON. THE NAM ON THE OTHER
HAND SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT IN NWRN KS AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBR
DURING THE EVENING. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATER FOR THE AREA TMRW...AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO
BE GREATER WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVENTUAL CAPE
BY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PW VALUES INCREASING
TO OVER AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PROJECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND THETA-E
INDICATES THAT WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
0-2KM THETA-E GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS. THE STRONG CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF NEBRASKA ZONES. HOWEVER...IT
SEEMS THAT...OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO ANYWAY...THE LOCAL AREA HAS
HAD MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL WITH BULK SHEAR SEEMINGLY NOT FAVORABLE.
AT TIMES...STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH 15-25KT BULK SHEAR HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING 1 INCH HAIL. THE PROJECTED SCENARIO
THURSDAY EVENING SHOWS A NARROW FINGER OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OF 2500-3500J/KG EXTENDING OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND
2000-3000J/KG 800MB BASED POTENTIAL WITH 15-25KT BULK SHEAR IN THE
0-6KM LAYER...BUT THE HODOGRAPH AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THOUGH
THERE ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WE
WILL NOT INCLUDE THE WORDING FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH COME ACROSS NEBRASKA FRIDAY WITH
875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF 0C TO -2C AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BRING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PUSHED AGAINST THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A
REPRIEVE IN THE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW
LEVEL THETA-E THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS GULF MOISTURE TRACES A SOMEWHAT
CIRCUITOUS TRAJECTORY FROM TEXAS ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A MORE
DIRECT TRAJECTORY DEVELOPING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES BETTER DEVELOPED WITH A SHARP THETA-E
GRADIENT...A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN APPROPRIATE POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXTENT OF TSRA FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN
TAFS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

WEAK CONVECTION ONGOING OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND. SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
SURFACE BASED FORCING MECHANISMS ARE NOT WELL DEFINED CURRENTLY.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL TSRA CHANCES FOR TAF SITES IS BELOW
AVERAGE BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR THE KLBF TAF DURING THE 22Z TO 02Z
TIME FRAME. OPTED TO MENTION AS VCNTY TSRA FOR KVTN.

AFTER CONVECTION DECREASES OVERNIGHT NAM SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS THOUGH CIG/VSBY MORE PESSIMISTIC IN MET THAN MAV
GUIDANCE. SINCE THERE WAS NO MENTION BEFORE HAVE TRENDED CIGS TWD
IFR THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE TRENDED FURTHER DOWNWARD
IN LATER FCSTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. FCST CREST
HEIGHT FOR LISCO IS HALF A FOOT LOWER WITH THIS MORNINGS FCST BASED
ON LESSER AMOUNTS OF WATER DUE TO RELEASES UPSTREAM...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST. PLEASE SEE FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES ITS RISE FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH
PLATTE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RISES DUE TO
RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO RECENTLY...PAIRED WITH
THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE ROCKIES. THE JULESBURG GAGE IS
SHOWING THE CREST HAS LIKELY PASSED THERE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE BASIN. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION
FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JWS
HYDROLOGY...JWS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 272011
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
311 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA ONGOING IN THE SW NEB PANHANDLE
NEAR WY BORDER AND ALSO IN NERN CO. THOSE IN THE NEB PANHANDLE ARE
MORE ORGANIZED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN
SERN WY. ISOLD WEAKER CONVECTION NOTED IN THE NRN PANHANDLE. FURTHER
SOUTH IN NERN CO IS WHERE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS AND BASED ON SPC
MESOANALYSIS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. DISCRETE SUPERCELL IN NERN CO IS MOVING
SLOWLY AND APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG WARM FRONT WHICH IS SLOWLY
MOVING NWD. NERN CO STORM IS ASSISTED BY WEAK PV ANOMALY BUT IN THE
AREA OF 3K SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AND ALONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
GRADIENT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO INCREASING ALONG BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO CO...AND MORE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WARM
FRONT IN KS. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND OTHER CAMS AND INCLUDING CAPS 20
MEMBER ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THESE TWO AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EWD AND WILL AFFECT THE WRN CAW THIS EVENING...THOUGH MOST SUGGEST A
WEAKENING TREND WITH THE STORMS THAT MOVE OUT OF THE PANHANDLE...AND
THE MORE ROBUST STORMS IN NERN CO SHOULD MOVE INTO NWRN KS AND BE
REINFORCED BY A DEVELOPING LLJ THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD MEAN
PROPAGATION VECTORS SHOULD BECOME MORE SERLY ORIENTED. MOISTURE HAS
BEEN POOLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN KS...AND KLBF HAS
GOTTEN TO 56 CURRENTLY.

ALTHOUGH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...PROJECTED
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN SWRN NEB...SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE
ROBUST PV ANOMALY WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY
LATER AFTERNOON. AS THIS UPPER FORCING ENHANCES THE LIFT ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL THETA GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY OVER WRN KS
AND INTO WRN NEBR...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY
AFTERNOON. GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH ITS PREFRONTAL TROF POSITION BY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DEVELOPS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MUCH FURTHER E
INTO CENTRAL AND NERN NEB BY THU AFTERNOON. THE NAM ON THE OTHER
HAND SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT IN NWRN KS AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBR
DURING THE EVENING. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATER FOR THE AREA TMRW...AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO
BE GREATER WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVENTUAL CAPE
BY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PW VALUES INCREASING
TO OVER AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PROJECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND THETA-E
INDICATES THAT WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
0-2KM THETA-E GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS. THE STRONG CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF NEBRASKA ZONES. HOWEVER...IT
SEEMS THAT...OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO ANYWAY...THE LOCAL AREA HAS
HAD MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL WITH BULK SHEAR SEEMINGLY NOT FAVORABLE.
AT TIMES...STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH 15-25KT BULK SHEAR HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING 1 INCH HAIL. THE PROJECTED SCENARIO
THURSDAY EVENING SHOWS A NARROW FINGER OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OF 2500-3500J/KG EXTENDING OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND
2000-3000J/KG 800MB BASED POTENTIAL WITH 15-25KT BULK SHEAR IN THE
0-6KM LAYER...BUT THE HODOGRAPH AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THOUGH
THERE ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WE
WILL NOT INCLUDE THE WORDING FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH COME ACROSS NEBRASKA FRIDAY WITH
875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF 0C TO -2C AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BRING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PUSHED AGAINST THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A
REPRIEVE IN THE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW
LEVEL THETA-E THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS GULF MOISTURE TRACES A SOMEWHAT
CIRCUITOUS TRAJECTORY FROM TEXAS ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A MORE
DIRECT TRAJECTORY DEVELOPING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES BETTER DEVELOPED WITH A SHARP THETA-E
GRADIENT...A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN APPROPRIATE POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXTENT OF TSRA FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN
TAFS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

WEAK CONVECTION ONGOING OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND. SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
SURFACE BASED FORCING MECHANISMS ARE NOT WELL DEFINED CURRENTLY.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL TSRA CHANCES FOR TAF SITES IS BELOW
AVERAGE BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR THE KLBF TAF DURING THE 22Z TO 02Z
TIME FRAME. OPTED TO MENTION AS VCNTY TSRA FOR KVTN.

AFTER CONVECTION DECREASES OVERNIGHT NAM SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS THOUGH CIG/VSBY MORE PESSIMISTIC IN MET THAN MAV
GUIDANCE. SINCE THERE WAS NO MENTION BEFORE HAVE TRENDED CIGS TWD
IFR THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE TRENDED FURTHER DOWNWARD
IN LATER FCSTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. FCST CREST
HEIGHT FOR LISCO IS HALF A FOOT LOWER WITH THIS MORNINGS FCST BASED
ON LESSER AMOUNTS OF WATER DUE TO RELEASES UPSTREAM...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST. PLEASE SEE FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES ITS RISE FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH
PLATTE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RISES DUE TO
RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO RECENTLY...PAIRED WITH
THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE ROCKIES. THE JULESBURG GAGE IS
SHOWING THE CREST HAS LIKELY PASSED THERE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE BASIN. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION
FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JWS
HYDROLOGY...JWS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 272011
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
311 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA ONGOING IN THE SW NEB PANHANDLE
NEAR WY BORDER AND ALSO IN NERN CO. THOSE IN THE NEB PANHANDLE ARE
MORE ORGANIZED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN
SERN WY. ISOLD WEAKER CONVECTION NOTED IN THE NRN PANHANDLE. FURTHER
SOUTH IN NERN CO IS WHERE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS AND BASED ON SPC
MESOANALYSIS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. DISCRETE SUPERCELL IN NERN CO IS MOVING
SLOWLY AND APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG WARM FRONT WHICH IS SLOWLY
MOVING NWD. NERN CO STORM IS ASSISTED BY WEAK PV ANOMALY BUT IN THE
AREA OF 3K SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AND ALONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
GRADIENT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO INCREASING ALONG BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO CO...AND MORE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WARM
FRONT IN KS. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND OTHER CAMS AND INCLUDING CAPS 20
MEMBER ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THESE TWO AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EWD AND WILL AFFECT THE WRN CAW THIS EVENING...THOUGH MOST SUGGEST A
WEAKENING TREND WITH THE STORMS THAT MOVE OUT OF THE PANHANDLE...AND
THE MORE ROBUST STORMS IN NERN CO SHOULD MOVE INTO NWRN KS AND BE
REINFORCED BY A DEVELOPING LLJ THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD MEAN
PROPAGATION VECTORS SHOULD BECOME MORE SERLY ORIENTED. MOISTURE HAS
BEEN POOLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN KS...AND KLBF HAS
GOTTEN TO 56 CURRENTLY.

ALTHOUGH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...PROJECTED
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN SWRN NEB...SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE
ROBUST PV ANOMALY WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY
LATER AFTERNOON. AS THIS UPPER FORCING ENHANCES THE LIFT ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL THETA GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY OVER WRN KS
AND INTO WRN NEBR...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY
AFTERNOON. GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH ITS PREFRONTAL TROF POSITION BY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DEVELOPS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MUCH FURTHER E
INTO CENTRAL AND NERN NEB BY THU AFTERNOON. THE NAM ON THE OTHER
HAND SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT IN NWRN KS AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBR
DURING THE EVENING. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATER FOR THE AREA TMRW...AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO
BE GREATER WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVENTUAL CAPE
BY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PW VALUES INCREASING
TO OVER AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PROJECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND THETA-E
INDICATES THAT WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
0-2KM THETA-E GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS. THE STRONG CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF NEBRASKA ZONES. HOWEVER...IT
SEEMS THAT...OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO ANYWAY...THE LOCAL AREA HAS
HAD MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL WITH BULK SHEAR SEEMINGLY NOT FAVORABLE.
AT TIMES...STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH 15-25KT BULK SHEAR HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING 1 INCH HAIL. THE PROJECTED SCENARIO
THURSDAY EVENING SHOWS A NARROW FINGER OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OF 2500-3500J/KG EXTENDING OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND
2000-3000J/KG 800MB BASED POTENTIAL WITH 15-25KT BULK SHEAR IN THE
0-6KM LAYER...BUT THE HODOGRAPH AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THOUGH
THERE ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WE
WILL NOT INCLUDE THE WORDING FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH COME ACROSS NEBRASKA FRIDAY WITH
875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF 0C TO -2C AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BRING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PUSHED AGAINST THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A
REPRIEVE IN THE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW
LEVEL THETA-E THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS GULF MOISTURE TRACES A SOMEWHAT
CIRCUITOUS TRAJECTORY FROM TEXAS ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A MORE
DIRECT TRAJECTORY DEVELOPING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES BETTER DEVELOPED WITH A SHARP THETA-E
GRADIENT...A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN APPROPRIATE POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXTENT OF TSRA FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN
TAFS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

WEAK CONVECTION ONGOING OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND. SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
SURFACE BASED FORCING MECHANISMS ARE NOT WELL DEFINED CURRENTLY.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL TSRA CHANCES FOR TAF SITES IS BELOW
AVERAGE BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR THE KLBF TAF DURING THE 22Z TO 02Z
TIME FRAME. OPTED TO MENTION AS VCNTY TSRA FOR KVTN.

AFTER CONVECTION DECREASES OVERNIGHT NAM SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS THOUGH CIG/VSBY MORE PESSIMISTIC IN MET THAN MAV
GUIDANCE. SINCE THERE WAS NO MENTION BEFORE HAVE TRENDED CIGS TWD
IFR THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE TRENDED FURTHER DOWNWARD
IN LATER FCSTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. FCST CREST
HEIGHT FOR LISCO IS HALF A FOOT LOWER WITH THIS MORNINGS FCST BASED
ON LESSER AMOUNTS OF WATER DUE TO RELEASES UPSTREAM...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST. PLEASE SEE FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES ITS RISE FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH
PLATTE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RISES DUE TO
RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO RECENTLY...PAIRED WITH
THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE ROCKIES. THE JULESBURG GAGE IS
SHOWING THE CREST HAS LIKELY PASSED THERE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE BASIN. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION
FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JWS
HYDROLOGY...JWS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 272011
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
311 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA ONGOING IN THE SW NEB PANHANDLE
NEAR WY BORDER AND ALSO IN NERN CO. THOSE IN THE NEB PANHANDLE ARE
MORE ORGANIZED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN
SERN WY. ISOLD WEAKER CONVECTION NOTED IN THE NRN PANHANDLE. FURTHER
SOUTH IN NERN CO IS WHERE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS AND BASED ON SPC
MESOANALYSIS HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. DISCRETE SUPERCELL IN NERN CO IS MOVING
SLOWLY AND APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG WARM FRONT WHICH IS SLOWLY
MOVING NWD. NERN CO STORM IS ASSISTED BY WEAK PV ANOMALY BUT IN THE
AREA OF 3K SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AND ALONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
GRADIENT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO INCREASING ALONG BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO CO...AND MORE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WARM
FRONT IN KS. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND OTHER CAMS AND INCLUDING CAPS 20
MEMBER ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THESE TWO AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EWD AND WILL AFFECT THE WRN CAW THIS EVENING...THOUGH MOST SUGGEST A
WEAKENING TREND WITH THE STORMS THAT MOVE OUT OF THE PANHANDLE...AND
THE MORE ROBUST STORMS IN NERN CO SHOULD MOVE INTO NWRN KS AND BE
REINFORCED BY A DEVELOPING LLJ THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD MEAN
PROPAGATION VECTORS SHOULD BECOME MORE SERLY ORIENTED. MOISTURE HAS
BEEN POOLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN KS...AND KLBF HAS
GOTTEN TO 56 CURRENTLY.

ALTHOUGH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...PROJECTED
CLEARING BY LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN SWRN NEB...SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A MORE
ROBUST PV ANOMALY WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY
LATER AFTERNOON. AS THIS UPPER FORCING ENHANCES THE LIFT ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL THETA GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY OVER WRN KS
AND INTO WRN NEBR...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY
AFTERNOON. GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH ITS PREFRONTAL TROF POSITION BY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DEVELOPS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MUCH FURTHER E
INTO CENTRAL AND NERN NEB BY THU AFTERNOON. THE NAM ON THE OTHER
HAND SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT IN NWRN KS AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBR
DURING THE EVENING. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATER FOR THE AREA TMRW...AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO
BE GREATER WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVENTUAL CAPE
BY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PW VALUES INCREASING
TO OVER AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...PROJECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND AND THETA-E
INDICATES THAT WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE
0-2KM THETA-E GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS. THE STRONG CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF NEBRASKA ZONES. HOWEVER...IT
SEEMS THAT...OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO ANYWAY...THE LOCAL AREA HAS
HAD MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL WITH BULK SHEAR SEEMINGLY NOT FAVORABLE.
AT TIMES...STRONG CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH 15-25KT BULK SHEAR HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING 1 INCH HAIL. THE PROJECTED SCENARIO
THURSDAY EVENING SHOWS A NARROW FINGER OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OF 2500-3500J/KG EXTENDING OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND
2000-3000J/KG 800MB BASED POTENTIAL WITH 15-25KT BULK SHEAR IN THE
0-6KM LAYER...BUT THE HODOGRAPH AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THOUGH
THERE ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WE
WILL NOT INCLUDE THE WORDING FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH COME ACROSS NEBRASKA FRIDAY WITH
875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF 0C TO -2C AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BRING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PUSHED AGAINST THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A
REPRIEVE IN THE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW
LEVEL THETA-E THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS GULF MOISTURE TRACES A SOMEWHAT
CIRCUITOUS TRAJECTORY FROM TEXAS ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A MORE
DIRECT TRAJECTORY DEVELOPING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES BETTER DEVELOPED WITH A SHARP THETA-E
GRADIENT...A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN APPROPRIATE POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXTENT OF TSRA FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN
TAFS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

WEAK CONVECTION ONGOING OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND. SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
SURFACE BASED FORCING MECHANISMS ARE NOT WELL DEFINED CURRENTLY.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL TSRA CHANCES FOR TAF SITES IS BELOW
AVERAGE BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR THE KLBF TAF DURING THE 22Z TO 02Z
TIME FRAME. OPTED TO MENTION AS VCNTY TSRA FOR KVTN.

AFTER CONVECTION DECREASES OVERNIGHT NAM SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS THOUGH CIG/VSBY MORE PESSIMISTIC IN MET THAN MAV
GUIDANCE. SINCE THERE WAS NO MENTION BEFORE HAVE TRENDED CIGS TWD
IFR THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE TRENDED FURTHER DOWNWARD
IN LATER FCSTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. FCST CREST
HEIGHT FOR LISCO IS HALF A FOOT LOWER WITH THIS MORNINGS FCST BASED
ON LESSER AMOUNTS OF WATER DUE TO RELEASES UPSTREAM...BUT
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST. PLEASE SEE FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES ITS RISE FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH
PLATTE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RISES DUE TO
RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO RECENTLY...PAIRED WITH
THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE ROCKIES. THE JULESBURG GAGE IS
SHOWING THE CREST HAS LIKELY PASSED THERE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE BASIN. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION
FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JWS
HYDROLOGY...JWS





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KOAX 271955 CCA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
MOST RECENT RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT TO EASTERN NEBRASKA MUCH BEFORE 06Z AS THE CURRENT
AIRMASS IS QUITE STABLE. DECIDED TO GO FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
NEAR-TERM FORECAST AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER AS THE FIRST OF TWO WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRACK
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE REALLY ISN`T A DRY
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...BUT DID LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAMPING THEM
UP AGAIN WHEN THE SECOND SHORTWAVE FINALLY TRACKS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. AS MENTIONED WE EXPECT A DRY
PERIOD OF WEATHER TO BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESURE TAKES HOLD AND 500MB HEIGHTS RISE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
TAKE A BIT OF DIP...THOUGH REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING...ALLOWING
SATURDAY MORNING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA STILL IN PLACE. THIS LULL IN PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY MID- WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
AS A RESULT THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASS THROUGH BRINGING RAIN BACK IN THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
LIKELY THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF IT MAKING IT TO THE TAF SITES...BUT SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING ON THU. CLOUD BASES WILL
CONT TO LOWER ON THU MORNING BUT SHOULD STAY AOA FL040 THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 271955 CCA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
MOST RECENT RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT TO EASTERN NEBRASKA MUCH BEFORE 06Z AS THE CURRENT
AIRMASS IS QUITE STABLE. DECIDED TO GO FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
NEAR-TERM FORECAST AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER AS THE FIRST OF TWO WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRACK
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE REALLY ISN`T A DRY
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...BUT DID LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAMPING THEM
UP AGAIN WHEN THE SECOND SHORTWAVE FINALLY TRACKS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. AS MENTIONED WE EXPECT A DRY
PERIOD OF WEATHER TO BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESURE TAKES HOLD AND 500MB HEIGHTS RISE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
TAKE A BIT OF DIP...THOUGH REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING...ALLOWING
SATURDAY MORNING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA STILL IN PLACE. THIS LULL IN PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY MID- WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
AS A RESULT THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASS THROUGH BRINGING RAIN BACK IN THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
LIKELY THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF IT MAKING IT TO THE TAF SITES...BUT SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING ON THU. CLOUD BASES WILL
CONT TO LOWER ON THU MORNING BUT SHOULD STAY AOA FL040 THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 271955
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
MOST RECENT RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT TO EASTERN NEBRASKA MUCH BEFORE 06Z AS THE CURRENT
AIRMASS IS QUITE STABLE. DECIDED TO GO FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
NEAR-TERM FORECAST AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER AS THE FIRST OF TWO WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRACK
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE REALLY ISN`T A DRY
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...BUT DID LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAMPING THEM
UP AGAIN WHEN THE SECOND SHORTWAVE FINALLY TRACKS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. AS MENTIONED WE EXPECT A DRY
PERIOD OF WEATHER TO BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESURE TAKES HOLD AND 500MB HEIGHTS RISE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
TAKE A BIT OF DIP...THOUGH REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING...ALLOWING
SATURDAY MORNING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA STILL IN PLACE. THIS LULL IN PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY MID- WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
AS A RESULT THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASS THROUGH BRINGING RAIN BACK IN THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
LIKELY THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF IT MAKING IT TO THE TAF SITES...BUT SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING ON THU. CLOUD BASES WILL
CONT TO LOWER ON THU MORNING BUT SHOULD STAY AOA FL040 THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 271955
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
MOST RECENT RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT TO EASTERN NEBRASKA MUCH BEFORE 06Z AS THE CURRENT
AIRMASS IS QUITE STABLE. DECIDED TO GO FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
NEAR-TERM FORECAST AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER AS THE FIRST OF TWO WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRACK
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE REALLY ISN`T A DRY
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...BUT DID LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAMPING THEM
UP AGAIN WHEN THE SECOND SHORTWAVE FINALLY TRACKS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. AS MENTIONED WE EXPECT A DRY
PERIOD OF WEATHER TO BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESURE TAKES HOLD AND 500MB HEIGHTS RISE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
TAKE A BIT OF DIP...THOUGH REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING...ALLOWING
SATURDAY MORNING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA STILL IN PLACE. THIS LULL IN PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY MID- WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
AS A RESULT THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASS THROUGH BRINGING RAIN BACK IN THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
LIKELY THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF IT MAKING IT TO THE TAF SITES...BUT SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING ON THU. CLOUD BASES WILL
CONT TO LOWER ON THU MORNING BUT SHOULD STAY AOA FL040 THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KLBF 271747
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE PRE FIRST PERIOD WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY PRE FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE HIGH OVER MCCOOK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. 30KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
JET MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THEN PUSHES
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCAPE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 JOULES/KG. BULK SHEAR FROM
20 TO 25KTS. OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
IN MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME
LOW 80S POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AS UPPER
JET MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER NIGHT WITH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
SEEING MOST ACTIVITY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EJECT TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES AND CAVEATS STILL EXIST THAT
WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE MODE AND STRENGTH. FIRST OFF
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS. 00Z NAM IS
ADVERTISING A STRONGER JET STREAK OF 50+ KTS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LEAD PV MAX TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME AND INCONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD PUSH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION EAST BY THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NOSE OF A VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS TAKES PLACE AND AMPLE INSOLATION OCCURS INTO
PEAK HEATING...STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED
BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE MORE THAN
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO OF CONCERN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. GFS/NAM CAMP ADVERTISING PWATS AOA 1.25 INCHES AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STRAIGHT
UP THE GREAT PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONGEAL. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...SO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES RICH MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
FRONT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW QPF OUTPUT OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEDGING TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY...WHICH DECREASES
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PV ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/QUEBEC...WHICH QUICKLY SHOVES COOL/DRY AIR SOUTH
INTO MUCH OF NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND NAM ARE NOT AS
BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP MOISTURE AND QPF
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE DAY IN A
ZONE A DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY HAS DECREASED
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES DEFLECT TO THE EAST AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. DID NOT MAKE MUCH
OF CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST POP FORECAST GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES...BUT DID MAKE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER A COOL
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS REESTABLISHED. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE INTRODUCED
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXTENT OF TSRA FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN
TAFS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

WEAK CONVECTION ONGOING OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP REACHING THE
GROUND. SHORT TERM AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
SURFACE BASED FORCING MECHANISMS ARE NOT WELL DEFINED CURRENTLY.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL TSRA CHANCES FOR TAF SITES IS BELOW
AVERAGE BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR THE KLBF TAF DURING THE 22Z TO 02Z
TIME FRAME. OPTED TO MENTION AS VCNTY TSRA FOR KVTN.

AFTER CONVECTION DECREASES OVERNIGHT NAM SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS THOUGH CIG/VSBY MORE PESSIMISTIC IN MET THAN MAV
GUIDANCE. SINCE THERE WAS NO MENTION BEFORE HAVE TRENDED CIGS TWD
IFR THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE TRENDED FURTHER DOWNWARD
IN LATER FCSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES SLOW RISE WITH RELEASES UP STREAM. LAKE
MCCONAUGHY AT 81 PERCENT OF CAPACITY WILL HANDLE THIS FOR NOW. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER
THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE
ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK. HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME
FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT
BRADY. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JWS
HYDROLOGY...POWER






000
FXUS63 KOAX 271742
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A RARE DRY DAY WILL GRACE US WITH ITS PRESENCE...BEFORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK LOW HAD SLID
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ID/NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHEAST WA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE QUITE
WEAK...WITH SCANT AREAS OF 50+KT EVEN AT 300/250MB.  SURFACE HIGH AT
07Z WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.  HAVE SIGNFICANTLY SLOWED TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  MAIN
RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET...AND AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VERY
WELL COULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
WEAK IN THE CWA...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AIMED INTO CENTRAL
NEB...BUT DID KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR NOW.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME..WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH WEAK FEATURES...AND
WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY IMPEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION...THINK
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ABRUPT...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED THE EXIT OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND DRIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSECUTIVE DRY
DAYS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL US...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH HINT OF POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF IT MAKING IT TO THE TAF SITES...BUT SOME
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING ON THU. CLOUD BASES WILL
CONT TO LOWER ON THU MORNING BUT SHOULD STAY AOA FL040 THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KGID 271731
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1231 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH BUT REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE
WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES IN. HAVE KEPT THE
MORNING MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A FEW LOW POPS IN THE FAR WEST...THEN
BRING IT ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EAST IN
THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH A
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE THIS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL THEN BE IN
PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVERTAKES THE
REGION.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AS REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION THE NIGHT BEFORE ROLL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND
INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE IN
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS CROSSES THE
LOCAL AREA IN CONCERT WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCE ALREADY IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...STUCK WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THINK THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE A FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCE TO BE AN ACTIVE EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEST SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY
LARGE CAPE VALUES. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO AS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM
SPC NOW HAS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

THINGS DONT GET A WHOLE LOT CLEARER ON FRIDAY WHEN AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TYPICALLY...GOOD ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF A FRONT LEADS TO A WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GIVEN POTENTIALLY ONGOING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER...WAS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES THAN
OTHERWISE WOULD BE. EVENSO...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH AN ABRUPT END TO CONVECTION AS
MORE STABLE AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WEAK RIDGING TO SLIGHT ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST NEARS THE AREA MID WEEK. WITH ZONAL FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
PROGGED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NOTHING APPRECIABLE TO NOTE IN UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SUPERBLEND WAS GIVING EXTREMELY HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT FAR OUT...CAPPED THESE CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT FOR
THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A COUPLE OF MILD DAYS TO START THE
EXTENDED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MID WEEK AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ALSO. THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE PRECIP TIMING. SOME
MODELS BRING IT IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND OTHERS BRING IT IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL BE
AROUND THE TAFS SITES AROUND 00Z AND WILL MOVE OUT WHICH ONLY A
FEW MODELS SHOW. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SECOND STRONGER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BEDA




000
FXUS63 KGID 271731
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1231 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH BUT REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE
WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES IN. HAVE KEPT THE
MORNING MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A FEW LOW POPS IN THE FAR WEST...THEN
BRING IT ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EAST IN
THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH A
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE THIS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL THEN BE IN
PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVERTAKES THE
REGION.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AS REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION THE NIGHT BEFORE ROLL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND
INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE IN
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS CROSSES THE
LOCAL AREA IN CONCERT WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCE ALREADY IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...STUCK WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THINK THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE A FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCE TO BE AN ACTIVE EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEST SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY
LARGE CAPE VALUES. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO AS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM
SPC NOW HAS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

THINGS DONT GET A WHOLE LOT CLEARER ON FRIDAY WHEN AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TYPICALLY...GOOD ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF A FRONT LEADS TO A WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GIVEN POTENTIALLY ONGOING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER...WAS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES THAN
OTHERWISE WOULD BE. EVENSO...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH AN ABRUPT END TO CONVECTION AS
MORE STABLE AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WEAK RIDGING TO SLIGHT ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST NEARS THE AREA MID WEEK. WITH ZONAL FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
PROGGED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NOTHING APPRECIABLE TO NOTE IN UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SUPERBLEND WAS GIVING EXTREMELY HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT FAR OUT...CAPPED THESE CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT FOR
THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A COUPLE OF MILD DAYS TO START THE
EXTENDED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MID WEEK AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ALSO. THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE PRECIP TIMING. SOME
MODELS BRING IT IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND OTHERS BRING IT IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL BE
AROUND THE TAFS SITES AROUND 00Z AND WILL MOVE OUT WHICH ONLY A
FEW MODELS SHOW. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SECOND STRONGER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BEDA



000
FXUS63 KGID 271731
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1231 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH BUT REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE
WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES IN. HAVE KEPT THE
MORNING MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A FEW LOW POPS IN THE FAR WEST...THEN
BRING IT ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EAST IN
THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH A
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE THIS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL THEN BE IN
PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVERTAKES THE
REGION.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AS REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION THE NIGHT BEFORE ROLL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND
INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE IN
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS CROSSES THE
LOCAL AREA IN CONCERT WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCE ALREADY IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...STUCK WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THINK THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE A FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCE TO BE AN ACTIVE EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEST SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY
LARGE CAPE VALUES. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO AS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM
SPC NOW HAS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

THINGS DONT GET A WHOLE LOT CLEARER ON FRIDAY WHEN AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TYPICALLY...GOOD ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF A FRONT LEADS TO A WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GIVEN POTENTIALLY ONGOING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER...WAS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES THAN
OTHERWISE WOULD BE. EVENSO...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH AN ABRUPT END TO CONVECTION AS
MORE STABLE AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WEAK RIDGING TO SLIGHT ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST NEARS THE AREA MID WEEK. WITH ZONAL FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
PROGGED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NOTHING APPRECIABLE TO NOTE IN UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SUPERBLEND WAS GIVING EXTREMELY HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT FAR OUT...CAPPED THESE CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT FOR
THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A COUPLE OF MILD DAYS TO START THE
EXTENDED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MID WEEK AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ALSO. THE
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAFS WILL BE PRECIP TIMING. SOME
MODELS BRING IT IN AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND OTHERS BRING IT IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL BE
AROUND THE TAFS SITES AROUND 00Z AND WILL MOVE OUT WHICH ONLY A
FEW MODELS SHOW. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SECOND STRONGER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BEDA




000
FXUS63 KLBF 271205 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
705 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE PRE FIRST PERIOD WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY PRE FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE HIGH OVER MCCOOK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. 30KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
JET MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THEN PUSHES
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCAPE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 JOULES/KG. BULK SHEAR FROM
20 TO 25KTS. OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
IN MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME
LOW 80S POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AS UPPER
JET MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER NIGHT WITH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
SEEING MOST ACTIVITY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EJECT TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES AND CAVEATS STILL EXIST THAT
WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE MODE AND STRENGTH. FIRST OFF
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS. 00Z NAM IS
ADVERTISING A STRONGER JET STREAK OF 50+ KTS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LEAD PV MAX TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME AND INCONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD PUSH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION EAST BY THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NOSE OF A VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS TAKES PLACE AND AMPLE INSOLATION OCCURS INTO
PEAK HEATING...STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED
BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE MORE THAN
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO OF CONCERN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. GFS/NAM CAMP ADVERTISING PWATS AOA 1.25 INCHES AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STRAIGHT
UP THE GREAT PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONGEAL. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...SO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES RICH MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
FRONT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW QPF OUTPUT OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEDGING TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY...WHICH DECREASES
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PV ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/QUEBEC...WHICH QUICKLY SHOVES COOL/DRY AIR SOUTH
INTO MUCH OF NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND NAM ARE NOT AS
BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP MOISTURE AND QPF
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE DAY IN A
ZONE A DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY HAS DECREASED
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES DEFLECT TO THE EAST AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. DID NOT MAKE MUCH
OF CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST POP FORECAST GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES...BUT DID MAKE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER A COOL
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS REESTABLISHED. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE INTRODUCED
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. AREA IS MOVING EAST SLOWLY AT
AROUND 10KTS. SOME OF THIS MAY JUST BE VIRGA WITH PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY SEEN WITH ACCAS ALL QUADS FROM KLBF. ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES SLOW RISE WITH RELEASES UP STREAM. LAKE
MCCONAUGHY AT 80 PERCENT OF CAPACITY WILL HANDLE THIS FOR NOW. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER
THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE
ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK. HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME
FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT
BRADY. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 271205 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
705 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE PRE FIRST PERIOD WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY PRE FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE HIGH OVER MCCOOK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. 30KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
JET MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THEN PUSHES
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCAPE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 JOULES/KG. BULK SHEAR FROM
20 TO 25KTS. OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
IN MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME
LOW 80S POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AS UPPER
JET MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER NIGHT WITH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
SEEING MOST ACTIVITY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EJECT TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES AND CAVEATS STILL EXIST THAT
WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE MODE AND STRENGTH. FIRST OFF
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS. 00Z NAM IS
ADVERTISING A STRONGER JET STREAK OF 50+ KTS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LEAD PV MAX TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME AND INCONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD PUSH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION EAST BY THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NOSE OF A VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS TAKES PLACE AND AMPLE INSOLATION OCCURS INTO
PEAK HEATING...STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED
BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE MORE THAN
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO OF CONCERN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. GFS/NAM CAMP ADVERTISING PWATS AOA 1.25 INCHES AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STRAIGHT
UP THE GREAT PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONGEAL. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...SO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES RICH MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
FRONT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW QPF OUTPUT OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEDGING TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY...WHICH DECREASES
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PV ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/QUEBEC...WHICH QUICKLY SHOVES COOL/DRY AIR SOUTH
INTO MUCH OF NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND NAM ARE NOT AS
BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP MOISTURE AND QPF
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE DAY IN A
ZONE A DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY HAS DECREASED
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES DEFLECT TO THE EAST AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. DID NOT MAKE MUCH
OF CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST POP FORECAST GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES...BUT DID MAKE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER A COOL
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS REESTABLISHED. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE INTRODUCED
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. AREA IS MOVING EAST SLOWLY AT
AROUND 10KTS. SOME OF THIS MAY JUST BE VIRGA WITH PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY SEEN WITH ACCAS ALL QUADS FROM KLBF. ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES SLOW RISE WITH RELEASES UP STREAM. LAKE
MCCONAUGHY AT 80 PERCENT OF CAPACITY WILL HANDLE THIS FOR NOW. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER
THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE
ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK. HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME
FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT
BRADY. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 271205 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
705 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE PRE FIRST PERIOD WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY PRE FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE HIGH OVER MCCOOK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. 30KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
JET MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THEN PUSHES
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCAPE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 JOULES/KG. BULK SHEAR FROM
20 TO 25KTS. OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
IN MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME
LOW 80S POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AS UPPER
JET MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER NIGHT WITH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
SEEING MOST ACTIVITY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EJECT TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES AND CAVEATS STILL EXIST THAT
WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE MODE AND STRENGTH. FIRST OFF
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS. 00Z NAM IS
ADVERTISING A STRONGER JET STREAK OF 50+ KTS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LEAD PV MAX TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME AND INCONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD PUSH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION EAST BY THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NOSE OF A VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS TAKES PLACE AND AMPLE INSOLATION OCCURS INTO
PEAK HEATING...STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED
BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE MORE THAN
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO OF CONCERN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. GFS/NAM CAMP ADVERTISING PWATS AOA 1.25 INCHES AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STRAIGHT
UP THE GREAT PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONGEAL. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...SO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES RICH MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
FRONT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW QPF OUTPUT OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEDGING TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY...WHICH DECREASES
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PV ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/QUEBEC...WHICH QUICKLY SHOVES COOL/DRY AIR SOUTH
INTO MUCH OF NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND NAM ARE NOT AS
BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP MOISTURE AND QPF
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE DAY IN A
ZONE A DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY HAS DECREASED
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES DEFLECT TO THE EAST AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. DID NOT MAKE MUCH
OF CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST POP FORECAST GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES...BUT DID MAKE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER A COOL
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS REESTABLISHED. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE INTRODUCED
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. AREA IS MOVING EAST SLOWLY AT
AROUND 10KTS. SOME OF THIS MAY JUST BE VIRGA WITH PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY SEEN WITH ACCAS ALL QUADS FROM KLBF. ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES SLOW RISE WITH RELEASES UP STREAM. LAKE
MCCONAUGHY AT 80 PERCENT OF CAPACITY WILL HANDLE THIS FOR NOW. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER
THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE
ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK. HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME
FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT
BRADY. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 271205 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
705 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE PRE FIRST PERIOD WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR
EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY PRE FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE HIGH OVER MCCOOK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. 30KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
JET MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THEN PUSHES
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCAPE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 JOULES/KG. BULK SHEAR FROM
20 TO 25KTS. OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
IN MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME
LOW 80S POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AS UPPER
JET MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER NIGHT WITH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
SEEING MOST ACTIVITY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EJECT TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES AND CAVEATS STILL EXIST THAT
WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE MODE AND STRENGTH. FIRST OFF
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS. 00Z NAM IS
ADVERTISING A STRONGER JET STREAK OF 50+ KTS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LEAD PV MAX TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME AND INCONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD PUSH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION EAST BY THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NOSE OF A VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS TAKES PLACE AND AMPLE INSOLATION OCCURS INTO
PEAK HEATING...STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED
BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE MORE THAN
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO OF CONCERN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. GFS/NAM CAMP ADVERTISING PWATS AOA 1.25 INCHES AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STRAIGHT
UP THE GREAT PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONGEAL. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...SO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES RICH MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
FRONT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW QPF OUTPUT OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEDGING TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY...WHICH DECREASES
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PV ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/QUEBEC...WHICH QUICKLY SHOVES COOL/DRY AIR SOUTH
INTO MUCH OF NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND NAM ARE NOT AS
BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP MOISTURE AND QPF
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE DAY IN A
ZONE A DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY HAS DECREASED
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES DEFLECT TO THE EAST AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. DID NOT MAKE MUCH
OF CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST POP FORECAST GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES...BUT DID MAKE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER A COOL
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS REESTABLISHED. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE INTRODUCED
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. AREA IS MOVING EAST SLOWLY AT
AROUND 10KTS. SOME OF THIS MAY JUST BE VIRGA WITH PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY SEEN WITH ACCAS ALL QUADS FROM KLBF. ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES SLOW RISE WITH RELEASES UP STREAM. LAKE
MCCONAUGHY AT 80 PERCENT OF CAPACITY WILL HANDLE THIS FOR NOW. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER
THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE
ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK. HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME
FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT
BRADY. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 271145
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY PRE FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE HIGH OVER MCCOOK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. 30KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
JET MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THEN PUSHES
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCAPE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 JOULES/KG. BULK SHEAR FROM
20 TO 25KTS. OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
IN MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME
LOW 80S POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AS UPPER
JET MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER NIGHT WITH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
SEEING MOST ACTIVITY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EJECT TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES AND CAVEATS STILL EXIST THAT
WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE MODE AND STRENGTH. FIRST OFF
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS. 00Z NAM IS
ADVERTISING A STRONGER JET STREAK OF 50+ KTS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LEAD PV MAX TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME AND INCONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD PUSH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION EAST BY THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NOSE OF A VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS TAKES PLACE AND AMPLE INSOLATION OCCURS INTO
PEAK HEATING...STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED
BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE MORE THAN
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO OF CONCERN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. GFS/NAM CAMP ADVERTISING PWATS AOA 1.25 INCHES AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STRAIGHT
UP THE GREAT PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONGEAL. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...SO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES RICH MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
FRONT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW QPF OUTPUT OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEDGING TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY...WHICH DECREASES
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PV ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/QUEBEC...WHICH QUICKLY SHOVES COOL/DRY AIR SOUTH
INTO MUCH OF NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND NAM ARE NOT AS
BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP MOISTURE AND QPF
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE DAY IN A
ZONE A DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY HAS DECREASED
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES DEFLECT TO THE EAST AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. DID NOT MAKE MUCH
OF CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST POP FORECAST GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES...BUT DID MAKE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER A COOL
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS REESTABLISHED. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE INTRODUCED
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. AREA IS MOVING EAST SLOWLY AT
AROUND 10KTS. SOME OF THIS MAY JUST BE VIRGA WITH PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY SEEN WITH ACCAS ALL QUADS FROM KLBF. ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES SLOW RISE WITH RELEASES UP STREAM. LAKE
MCCONAUGHY AT 80 PERCENT OF CAPACITY WILL HANDLE THIS FOR NOW. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER
THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE
ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK. HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME
FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT
BRADY. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 271145
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY PRE FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE HIGH OVER MCCOOK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. 30KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
JET MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THEN PUSHES
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCAPE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 JOULES/KG. BULK SHEAR FROM
20 TO 25KTS. OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
IN MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME
LOW 80S POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AS UPPER
JET MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER NIGHT WITH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
SEEING MOST ACTIVITY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EJECT TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES AND CAVEATS STILL EXIST THAT
WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE MODE AND STRENGTH. FIRST OFF
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS. 00Z NAM IS
ADVERTISING A STRONGER JET STREAK OF 50+ KTS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LEAD PV MAX TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME AND INCONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD PUSH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION EAST BY THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NOSE OF A VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS TAKES PLACE AND AMPLE INSOLATION OCCURS INTO
PEAK HEATING...STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED
BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE MORE THAN
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO OF CONCERN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. GFS/NAM CAMP ADVERTISING PWATS AOA 1.25 INCHES AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STRAIGHT
UP THE GREAT PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONGEAL. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...SO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES RICH MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
FRONT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW QPF OUTPUT OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEDGING TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY...WHICH DECREASES
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PV ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/QUEBEC...WHICH QUICKLY SHOVES COOL/DRY AIR SOUTH
INTO MUCH OF NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND NAM ARE NOT AS
BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP MOISTURE AND QPF
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE DAY IN A
ZONE A DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY HAS DECREASED
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES DEFLECT TO THE EAST AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. DID NOT MAKE MUCH
OF CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST POP FORECAST GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES...BUT DID MAKE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER A COOL
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS REESTABLISHED. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE INTRODUCED
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. AREA IS MOVING EAST SLOWLY AT
AROUND 10KTS. SOME OF THIS MAY JUST BE VIRGA WITH PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY SEEN WITH ACCAS ALL QUADS FROM KLBF. ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES SLOW RISE WITH RELEASES UP STREAM. LAKE
MCCONAUGHY AT 80 PERCENT OF CAPACITY WILL HANDLE THIS FOR NOW. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER
THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE
ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK. HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME
FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT
BRADY. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 271145
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY PRE FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE HIGH OVER MCCOOK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. 30KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
JET MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THEN PUSHES
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCAPE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 JOULES/KG. BULK SHEAR FROM
20 TO 25KTS. OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
IN MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME
LOW 80S POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AS UPPER
JET MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER NIGHT WITH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
SEEING MOST ACTIVITY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EJECT TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES AND CAVEATS STILL EXIST THAT
WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE MODE AND STRENGTH. FIRST OFF
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS. 00Z NAM IS
ADVERTISING A STRONGER JET STREAK OF 50+ KTS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LEAD PV MAX TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME AND INCONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD PUSH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION EAST BY THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NOSE OF A VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS TAKES PLACE AND AMPLE INSOLATION OCCURS INTO
PEAK HEATING...STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED
BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE MORE THAN
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO OF CONCERN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. GFS/NAM CAMP ADVERTISING PWATS AOA 1.25 INCHES AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STRAIGHT
UP THE GREAT PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONGEAL. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...SO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES RICH MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
FRONT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW QPF OUTPUT OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEDGING TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY...WHICH DECREASES
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PV ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/QUEBEC...WHICH QUICKLY SHOVES COOL/DRY AIR SOUTH
INTO MUCH OF NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND NAM ARE NOT AS
BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP MOISTURE AND QPF
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE DAY IN A
ZONE A DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY HAS DECREASED
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES DEFLECT TO THE EAST AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. DID NOT MAKE MUCH
OF CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST POP FORECAST GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES...BUT DID MAKE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER A COOL
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS REESTABLISHED. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE INTRODUCED
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. AREA IS MOVING EAST SLOWLY AT
AROUND 10KTS. SOME OF THIS MAY JUST BE VIRGA WITH PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY SEEN WITH ACCAS ALL QUADS FROM KLBF. ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES SLOW RISE WITH RELEASES UP STREAM. LAKE
MCCONAUGHY AT 80 PERCENT OF CAPACITY WILL HANDLE THIS FOR NOW. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER
THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE
ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK. HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME
FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT
BRADY. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 271145
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY PRE FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE HIGH OVER MCCOOK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. 30KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
JET MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THEN PUSHES
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCAPE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 JOULES/KG. BULK SHEAR FROM
20 TO 25KTS. OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
IN MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME
LOW 80S POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AS UPPER
JET MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER NIGHT WITH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
SEEING MOST ACTIVITY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EJECT TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES AND CAVEATS STILL EXIST THAT
WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE MODE AND STRENGTH. FIRST OFF
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS. 00Z NAM IS
ADVERTISING A STRONGER JET STREAK OF 50+ KTS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LEAD PV MAX TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME AND INCONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD PUSH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION EAST BY THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NOSE OF A VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS TAKES PLACE AND AMPLE INSOLATION OCCURS INTO
PEAK HEATING...STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED
BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE MORE THAN
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO OF CONCERN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. GFS/NAM CAMP ADVERTISING PWATS AOA 1.25 INCHES AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STRAIGHT
UP THE GREAT PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONGEAL. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...SO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES RICH MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
FRONT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW QPF OUTPUT OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEDGING TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY...WHICH DECREASES
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PV ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/QUEBEC...WHICH QUICKLY SHOVES COOL/DRY AIR SOUTH
INTO MUCH OF NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND NAM ARE NOT AS
BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP MOISTURE AND QPF
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE DAY IN A
ZONE A DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY HAS DECREASED
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES DEFLECT TO THE EAST AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. DID NOT MAKE MUCH
OF CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST POP FORECAST GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES...BUT DID MAKE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER A COOL
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS REESTABLISHED. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE INTRODUCED
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. AREA IS MOVING EAST SLOWLY AT
AROUND 10KTS. SOME OF THIS MAY JUST BE VIRGA WITH PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY SEEN WITH ACCAS ALL QUADS FROM KLBF. ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES SLOW RISE WITH RELEASES UP STREAM. LAKE
MCCONAUGHY AT 80 PERCENT OF CAPACITY WILL HANDLE THIS FOR NOW. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER
THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE
ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK. HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME
FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT
BRADY. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...POWER







000
FXUS63 KGID 271123
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH BUT REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE
WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES IN. HAVE KEPT THE
MORNING MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A FEW LOW POPS IN THE FAR WEST...THEN
BRING IT ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EAST IN
THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH A
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE THIS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL THEN BE IN
PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVERTAKES THE
REGION.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AS REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION THE NIGHT BEFORE ROLL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND
INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE IN
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS CROSSES THE
LOCAL AREA IN CONCERT WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCE ALREADY IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...STUCK WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THINK THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE A FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCE TO BE AN ACTIVE EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEST SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY
LARGE CAPE VALUES. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO AS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM
SPC NOW HAS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

THINGS DONT GET A WHOLE LOT CLEARER ON FRIDAY WHEN AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TYPICALLY...GOOD ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF A FRONT LEADS TO A WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GIVEN POTENTIALLY ONGOING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER...WAS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES THAN
OTHERWISE WOULD BE. EVENSO...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH AN ABRUPT END TO CONVECTION AS
MORE STABLE AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WEAK RIDGING TO SLIGHT ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST NEARS THE AREA MID WEEK. WITH ZONAL FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
PROGGED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NOTHING APPRECIABLE TO NOTE IN UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SUPERBLEND WAS GIVING EXTREMELY HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT FAR OUT...CAPPED THESE CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT FOR
THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A COUPLE OF MILD DAYS TO START THE
EXTENDED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MID WEEK AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY COULD MOVE IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 271123
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH BUT REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE
WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES IN. HAVE KEPT THE
MORNING MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A FEW LOW POPS IN THE FAR WEST...THEN
BRING IT ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EAST IN
THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH A
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE THIS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL THEN BE IN
PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVERTAKES THE
REGION.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AS REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION THE NIGHT BEFORE ROLL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND
INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE IN
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS CROSSES THE
LOCAL AREA IN CONCERT WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCE ALREADY IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...STUCK WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THINK THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE A FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCE TO BE AN ACTIVE EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEST SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY
LARGE CAPE VALUES. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO AS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM
SPC NOW HAS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

THINGS DONT GET A WHOLE LOT CLEARER ON FRIDAY WHEN AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TYPICALLY...GOOD ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF A FRONT LEADS TO A WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GIVEN POTENTIALLY ONGOING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER...WAS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES THAN
OTHERWISE WOULD BE. EVENSO...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH AN ABRUPT END TO CONVECTION AS
MORE STABLE AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WEAK RIDGING TO SLIGHT ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST NEARS THE AREA MID WEEK. WITH ZONAL FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
PROGGED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NOTHING APPRECIABLE TO NOTE IN UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SUPERBLEND WAS GIVING EXTREMELY HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT FAR OUT...CAPPED THESE CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT FOR
THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A COUPLE OF MILD DAYS TO START THE
EXTENDED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MID WEEK AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY COULD MOVE IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KOAX 271121
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A RARE DRY DAY WILL GRACE US WITH ITS PRESENCE...BEFORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK LOW HAD SLID
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ID/NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHEAST WA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE QUITE
WEAK...WITH SCANT AREAS OF 50+KT EVEN AT 300/250MB.  SURFACE HIGH AT
07Z WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.  HAVE SIGNFICANTLY SLOWED TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  MAIN
RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET...AND AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VERY
WELL COULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
WEAK IN THE CWA...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AIMED INTO CENTRAL
NEB...BUT DID KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR NOW.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME..WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH WEAK FEATURES...AND
WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY IMPEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION...THINK
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ABRUPT...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED THE EXIT OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND DRIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSECUTIVE DRY
DAYS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL US...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH HINT OF POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT EAST ACROSS KOFK AND KLNK
OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES CAN
ADDRESS THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 271121
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A RARE DRY DAY WILL GRACE US WITH ITS PRESENCE...BEFORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK LOW HAD SLID
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ID/NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHEAST WA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE QUITE
WEAK...WITH SCANT AREAS OF 50+KT EVEN AT 300/250MB.  SURFACE HIGH AT
07Z WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.  HAVE SIGNFICANTLY SLOWED TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  MAIN
RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET...AND AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VERY
WELL COULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
WEAK IN THE CWA...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AIMED INTO CENTRAL
NEB...BUT DID KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR NOW.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME..WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH WEAK FEATURES...AND
WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY IMPEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION...THINK
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ABRUPT...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED THE EXIT OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND DRIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSECUTIVE DRY
DAYS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL US...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH HINT OF POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT EAST ACROSS KOFK AND KLNK
OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES CAN
ADDRESS THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 271121
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A RARE DRY DAY WILL GRACE US WITH ITS PRESENCE...BEFORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK LOW HAD SLID
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ID/NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHEAST WA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE QUITE
WEAK...WITH SCANT AREAS OF 50+KT EVEN AT 300/250MB.  SURFACE HIGH AT
07Z WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.  HAVE SIGNFICANTLY SLOWED TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  MAIN
RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET...AND AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VERY
WELL COULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
WEAK IN THE CWA...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AIMED INTO CENTRAL
NEB...BUT DID KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR NOW.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME..WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH WEAK FEATURES...AND
WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY IMPEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION...THINK
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ABRUPT...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED THE EXIT OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND DRIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSECUTIVE DRY
DAYS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL US...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH HINT OF POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT EAST ACROSS KOFK AND KLNK
OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES CAN
ADDRESS THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 271121
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A RARE DRY DAY WILL GRACE US WITH ITS PRESENCE...BEFORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK LOW HAD SLID
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ID/NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHEAST WA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE QUITE
WEAK...WITH SCANT AREAS OF 50+KT EVEN AT 300/250MB.  SURFACE HIGH AT
07Z WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.  HAVE SIGNFICANTLY SLOWED TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  MAIN
RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET...AND AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VERY
WELL COULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
WEAK IN THE CWA...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AIMED INTO CENTRAL
NEB...BUT DID KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR NOW.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME..WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH WEAK FEATURES...AND
WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY IMPEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION...THINK
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ABRUPT...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED THE EXIT OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND DRIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSECUTIVE DRY
DAYS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL US...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH HINT OF POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT EAST ACROSS KOFK AND KLNK
OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AND LATER TAF ISSUANCES CAN
ADDRESS THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KGID 270911
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
411 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH BUT REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE
WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES IN. HAVE KEPT THE
MORNING MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A FEW LOW POPS IN THE FAR WEST...THEN
BRING IT ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EAST IN
THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH A
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE THIS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL THEN BE IN
PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVERTAKES THE
REGION.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AS REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION THE NIGHT BEFORE ROLL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND
INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE IN
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS CROSSES THE
LOCAL AREA IN CONCERT WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCE ALREADY IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...STUCK WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THINK THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE A FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCE TO BE AN ACTIVE EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEST SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY
LARGE CAPE VALUES. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO AS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM
SPC NOW HAS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

THINGS DONT GET A WHOLE LOT CLEARER ON FRIDAY WHEN AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TYPICALLY...GOOD ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF A FRONT LEADS TO A WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GIVEN POTENTIALLY ONGOING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER...WAS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES THAN
OTHERWISE WOULD BE. EVENSO...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH AN ABRUPT END TO CONVECTION AS
MORE STABLE AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WEAK RIDGING TO SLIGHT ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST NEARS THE AREA MID WEEK. WITH ZONAL FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
PROGGED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NOTHING APPRECIABLE TO NOTE IN UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SUPERBLEND WAS GIVING EXTREMELY HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT FAR OUT...CAPPED THESE CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT FOR
THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A COUPLE OF MILD DAYS TO START THE
EXTENDED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MID WEEK AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOUR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 270911
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
411 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH BUT REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE
WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES IN. HAVE KEPT THE
MORNING MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A FEW LOW POPS IN THE FAR WEST...THEN
BRING IT ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EAST IN
THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH A
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE THIS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL THEN BE IN
PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVERTAKES THE
REGION.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AS REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION THE NIGHT BEFORE ROLL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND
INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE IN
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS CROSSES THE
LOCAL AREA IN CONCERT WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCE ALREADY IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...STUCK WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THINK THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE A FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCE TO BE AN ACTIVE EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEST SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY
LARGE CAPE VALUES. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO AS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM
SPC NOW HAS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

THINGS DONT GET A WHOLE LOT CLEARER ON FRIDAY WHEN AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TYPICALLY...GOOD ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF A FRONT LEADS TO A WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GIVEN POTENTIALLY ONGOING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER...WAS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES THAN
OTHERWISE WOULD BE. EVENSO...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH AN ABRUPT END TO CONVECTION AS
MORE STABLE AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WEAK RIDGING TO SLIGHT ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST NEARS THE AREA MID WEEK. WITH ZONAL FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
PROGGED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NOTHING APPRECIABLE TO NOTE IN UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SUPERBLEND WAS GIVING EXTREMELY HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT FAR OUT...CAPPED THESE CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT FOR
THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A COUPLE OF MILD DAYS TO START THE
EXTENDED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MID WEEK AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOUR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 270911
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
411 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH BUT REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE
WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES IN. HAVE KEPT THE
MORNING MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A FEW LOW POPS IN THE FAR WEST...THEN
BRING IT ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EAST IN
THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH A
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE THIS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL THEN BE IN
PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVERTAKES THE
REGION.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AS REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION THE NIGHT BEFORE ROLL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND
INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE IN
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS CROSSES THE
LOCAL AREA IN CONCERT WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCE ALREADY IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...STUCK WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THINK THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE A FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCE TO BE AN ACTIVE EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEST SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY
LARGE CAPE VALUES. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO AS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM
SPC NOW HAS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

THINGS DONT GET A WHOLE LOT CLEARER ON FRIDAY WHEN AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TYPICALLY...GOOD ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF A FRONT LEADS TO A WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GIVEN POTENTIALLY ONGOING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER...WAS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES THAN
OTHERWISE WOULD BE. EVENSO...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH AN ABRUPT END TO CONVECTION AS
MORE STABLE AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WEAK RIDGING TO SLIGHT ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST NEARS THE AREA MID WEEK. WITH ZONAL FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
PROGGED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NOTHING APPRECIABLE TO NOTE IN UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SUPERBLEND WAS GIVING EXTREMELY HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT FAR OUT...CAPPED THESE CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT FOR
THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A COUPLE OF MILD DAYS TO START THE
EXTENDED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MID WEEK AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOUR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 270911
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
411 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH BUT REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE
WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT MOVES IN. HAVE KEPT THE
MORNING MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A FEW LOW POPS IN THE FAR WEST...THEN
BRING IT ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EAST IN
THE EVENING. THE MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING
OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH A
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE THIS COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL THEN BE IN
PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVERTAKES THE
REGION.

STARTING OFF THURSDAY...EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AS REMNANTS FROM CONVECTION THE NIGHT BEFORE ROLL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING AND
INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE IN
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS CROSSES THE
LOCAL AREA IN CONCERT WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCE ALREADY IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...STUCK WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THINK THURSDAY EVENING WILL HAVE A FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCE TO BE AN ACTIVE EVENING...WITH SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODEST SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY
LARGE CAPE VALUES. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO AS THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM
SPC NOW HAS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

THINGS DONT GET A WHOLE LOT CLEARER ON FRIDAY WHEN AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TYPICALLY...GOOD ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION AHEAD OF A FRONT LEADS TO A WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GIVEN POTENTIALLY ONGOING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER...WAS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES THAN
OTHERWISE WOULD BE. EVENSO...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH AN ABRUPT END TO CONVECTION AS
MORE STABLE AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WEAK RIDGING TO SLIGHT ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST NEARS THE AREA MID WEEK. WITH ZONAL FLOW...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
PROGGED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH NOTHING APPRECIABLE TO NOTE IN UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. SUPERBLEND WAS GIVING EXTREMELY HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES THAT FAR OUT...CAPPED THESE CHANCES TO 40 PERCENT FOR
THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT A COUPLE OF MILD DAYS TO START THE
EXTENDED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MID WEEK AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ADVECTS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOUR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KLBF 270833
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY PRE FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE HIGH OVER MCCOOK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. 30KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
JET MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THEN PUSHES
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCAPE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 JOULES/KG. BULK SHEAR FROM
20 TO 25KTS. OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
IN MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME
LOW 80S POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AS UPPER
JET MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER NIGHT WITH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
SEEING MOST ACTIVITY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EJECT TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES AND CAVEATS STILL EXIST THAT
WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE MODE AND STRENGTH. FIRST OFF
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS. 00Z NAM IS
ADVERTISING A STRONGER JET STREAK OF 50+ KTS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LEAD PV MAX TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME AND INCONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD PUSH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION EAST BY THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NOSE OF A VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS TAKES PLACE AND AMPLE INSOLATION OCCURS INTO
PEAK HEATING...STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED
BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE MORE THAN
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO OF CONCERN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. GFS/NAM CAMP ADVERTISING PWATS AOA 1.25 INCHES AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STRAIGHT
UP THE GREAT PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONGEAL. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...SO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES RICH MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
FRONT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW QPF OUTPUT OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEDGING TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY...WHICH DECREASES
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PV ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/QUEBEC...WHICH QUICKLY SHOVES COOL/DRY AIR SOUTH
INTO MUCH OF NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND NAM ARE NOT AS
BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP MOISTURE AND QPF
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE DAY IN A
ZONE A DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY HAS DECREASED
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES DEFLECT TO THE EAST AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. DID NOT MAKE MUCH
OF CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST POP FORECAST GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES...BUT DID MAKE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER A COOL
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS REESTABLISHED. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE INTRODUCED
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
TEMPO FOR -TSRA FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS AFTER 17Z. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS TO 22KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES SLOW RISE WITH RELEASES UP STREAM. LAKE
MCCONAUGHY AT 80 PERCENT OF CAPACITY WILL HANDLE THIS FOR NOW. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER
THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE
ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK. HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME
FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT
BRADY. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 270833
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY PRE FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE HIGH OVER MCCOOK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. 30KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
JET MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THEN PUSHES
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCAPE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 JOULES/KG. BULK SHEAR FROM
20 TO 25KTS. OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
IN MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME
LOW 80S POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AS UPPER
JET MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER NIGHT WITH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
SEEING MOST ACTIVITY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EJECT TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES AND CAVEATS STILL EXIST THAT
WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE MODE AND STRENGTH. FIRST OFF
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS. 00Z NAM IS
ADVERTISING A STRONGER JET STREAK OF 50+ KTS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LEAD PV MAX TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME AND INCONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD PUSH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION EAST BY THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NOSE OF A VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS TAKES PLACE AND AMPLE INSOLATION OCCURS INTO
PEAK HEATING...STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED
BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE MORE THAN
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO OF CONCERN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. GFS/NAM CAMP ADVERTISING PWATS AOA 1.25 INCHES AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STRAIGHT
UP THE GREAT PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONGEAL. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...SO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES RICH MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
FRONT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW QPF OUTPUT OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEDGING TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY...WHICH DECREASES
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PV ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/QUEBEC...WHICH QUICKLY SHOVES COOL/DRY AIR SOUTH
INTO MUCH OF NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND NAM ARE NOT AS
BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP MOISTURE AND QPF
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE DAY IN A
ZONE A DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY HAS DECREASED
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES DEFLECT TO THE EAST AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. DID NOT MAKE MUCH
OF CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST POP FORECAST GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES...BUT DID MAKE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER A COOL
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS REESTABLISHED. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE INTRODUCED
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
TEMPO FOR -TSRA FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS AFTER 17Z. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS TO 22KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES SLOW RISE WITH RELEASES UP STREAM. LAKE
MCCONAUGHY AT 80 PERCENT OF CAPACITY WILL HANDLE THIS FOR NOW. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER
THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE
ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK. HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME
FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT
BRADY. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 270833
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY PRE FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SURFACE HIGH OVER MCCOOK EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. 30KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
JET MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THEN PUSHES
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCAPE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON APPROACHING 1500 TO 2000 JOULES/KG. BULK SHEAR FROM
20 TO 25KTS. OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
IN MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME
LOW 80S POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AS UPPER
JET MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS PUSH SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVER NIGHT WITH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
SEEING MOST ACTIVITY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO THE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EJECT TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES AND CAVEATS STILL EXIST THAT
WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE MODE AND STRENGTH. FIRST OFF
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS. 00Z NAM IS
ADVERTISING A STRONGER JET STREAK OF 50+ KTS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
LEAD PV MAX TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THIS IS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME AND INCONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD PUSH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION EAST BY THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NOSE OF A VEERING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS TAKES PLACE AND AMPLE INSOLATION OCCURS INTO
PEAK HEATING...STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED
BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE MORE THAN
ENOUGH ENERGY TO SUPPORT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO OF CONCERN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. GFS/NAM CAMP ADVERTISING PWATS AOA 1.25 INCHES AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO STRAIGHT
UP THE GREAT PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONGEAL. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...SO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY AS A 40+ KT LLJ PUSHES RICH MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE
FRONT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW QPF OUTPUT OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEDGING TOWARD THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY...WHICH DECREASES
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PV ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA/QUEBEC...WHICH QUICKLY SHOVES COOL/DRY AIR SOUTH
INTO MUCH OF NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE EC AND NAM ARE NOT AS
BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP MOISTURE AND QPF
AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE DAY IN A
ZONE A DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY HAS DECREASED
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES DEFLECT TO THE EAST AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. DID NOT MAKE MUCH
OF CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST POP FORECAST GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES...BUT DID MAKE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS. AFTER A COOL
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS REESTABLISHED. NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE INTRODUCED
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
TEMPO FOR -TSRA FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS AFTER 17Z. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS TO 22KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES SLOW RISE WITH RELEASES UP STREAM. LAKE
MCCONAUGHY AT 80 PERCENT OF CAPACITY WILL HANDLE THIS FOR NOW. THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER
THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE
ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK. HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME
FROM ROSCOE TO NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT
BRADY. CHECK WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...POWER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 270832
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A RARE DRY DAY WILL GRACE US WITH ITS PRESENCE...BEFORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK LOW HAD SLID
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ID/NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHEAST WA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE QUITE
WEAK...WITH SCANT AREAS OF 50+KT EVEN AT 300/250MB.  SURFACE HIGH AT
07Z WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.  HAVE SIGNFICANTLY SLOWED TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  MAIN
RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET...AND AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VERY
WELL COULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
WEAK IN THE CWA...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AIMED INTO CENTRAL
NEB...BUT DID KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR NOW.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME..WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH WEAK FEATURES...AND
WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY IMPEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION...THINK
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ABRUPT...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED THE EXIT OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND DRIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSECUTIVE DRY
DAYS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL US...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH HINT OF POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 270832
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A RARE DRY DAY WILL GRACE US WITH ITS PRESENCE...BEFORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK LOW HAD SLID
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ID/NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHEAST WA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE QUITE
WEAK...WITH SCANT AREAS OF 50+KT EVEN AT 300/250MB.  SURFACE HIGH AT
07Z WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.  HAVE SIGNFICANTLY SLOWED TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  MAIN
RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET...AND AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VERY
WELL COULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
WEAK IN THE CWA...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AIMED INTO CENTRAL
NEB...BUT DID KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR NOW.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME..WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH WEAK FEATURES...AND
WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY IMPEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION...THINK
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ABRUPT...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED THE EXIT OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND DRIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSECUTIVE DRY
DAYS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL US...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH HINT OF POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 270832
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A RARE DRY DAY WILL GRACE US WITH ITS PRESENCE...BEFORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK LOW HAD SLID
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ID/NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHEAST WA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE QUITE
WEAK...WITH SCANT AREAS OF 50+KT EVEN AT 300/250MB.  SURFACE HIGH AT
07Z WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.  HAVE SIGNFICANTLY SLOWED TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  MAIN
RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET...AND AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VERY
WELL COULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
WEAK IN THE CWA...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AIMED INTO CENTRAL
NEB...BUT DID KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR NOW.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME..WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH WEAK FEATURES...AND
WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY IMPEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION...THINK
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ABRUPT...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED THE EXIT OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND DRIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSECUTIVE DRY
DAYS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL US...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH HINT OF POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 270832
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A RARE DRY DAY WILL GRACE US WITH ITS PRESENCE...BEFORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK LOW HAD SLID
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ID/NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHEAST WA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE QUITE
WEAK...WITH SCANT AREAS OF 50+KT EVEN AT 300/250MB.  SURFACE HIGH AT
07Z WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.  HAVE SIGNFICANTLY SLOWED TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  MAIN
RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET...AND AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VERY
WELL COULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
WEAK IN THE CWA...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AIMED INTO CENTRAL
NEB...BUT DID KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR NOW.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME..WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH WEAK FEATURES...AND
WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY IMPEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION...THINK
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ABRUPT...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED THE EXIT OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND DRIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSECUTIVE DRY
DAYS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL US...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH HINT OF POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 270832
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A RARE DRY DAY WILL GRACE US WITH ITS PRESENCE...BEFORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO END THE WEEK.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK LOW HAD SLID
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ID/NORTHEAST OR/SOUTHEAST WA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE QUITE
WEAK...WITH SCANT AREAS OF 50+KT EVEN AT 300/250MB.  SURFACE HIGH AT
07Z WAS CENTERED IN CENTRAL NEB/CENTRAL KS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD COMBINE WITH SUNSHINE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES.  HAVE SIGNFICANTLY SLOWED TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  MAIN
RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET...AND AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER VERY
WELL COULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
WEAK IN THE CWA...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AIMED INTO CENTRAL
NEB...BUT DID KEEP THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR NOW.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME..WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES LIKELY
RIPPLING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH WEAK FEATURES...AND
WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY IMPEDED BY ONGOING CONVECTION...THINK
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ABRUPT...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED THE EXIT OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND DRIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSECUTIVE DRY
DAYS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL US...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH HINT OF POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT



000
FXUS63 KGID 270545
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1245 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS
NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. AS OF 18Z...THIS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT...A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR ENTIRE AREA.

STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND HRRR OF VERY
WEAK...AND ISOLATED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS REALLY HELD
TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING AND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME
SUN ARE SEEING RAPID...ALBEIT EXTREMELY SHALLOW...CU DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIKELY NO GREATER THAN
100-200J/KG...AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
01Z

LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A TRULY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO GO AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AGAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61.

SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF ~1000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~25KTS. SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...AND WILL PROVIDE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OVERALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STABLE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
AND VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

STARTING OUT THE MID TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/WAVES TO THE EAST AND THE WEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER...WEAKER AND BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK...THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

IT IS THIS WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL AIDE IN GENERATING MUCH OF
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPAWNED BY THIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WHILE STILL PRESENT DOES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LOWER SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.

THURSDAY IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COULD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS? AND WILL LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER HINDER
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON? THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AIDE IT. IF SUNSHINE CAN PEAK THROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST
MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WHILE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
A DRY LINE OF SORTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT GREAT ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN WITH 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. DO THINK THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THUS LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TOUCH
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

AS THE WAVE/TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL USHER IN A
COLDER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ONSET OF THE DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SUPERBLEND LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN EVEN FROM SUPERBLEND JUST TO REALLY HIT ON
THIS TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FINALLY DRIER DAYS SEEM TO BE IN STORE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOUR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 270545
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1245 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS
NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. AS OF 18Z...THIS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT...A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR ENTIRE AREA.

STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND HRRR OF VERY
WEAK...AND ISOLATED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS REALLY HELD
TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING AND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME
SUN ARE SEEING RAPID...ALBEIT EXTREMELY SHALLOW...CU DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIKELY NO GREATER THAN
100-200J/KG...AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
01Z

LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A TRULY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO GO AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AGAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61.

SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF ~1000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~25KTS. SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...AND WILL PROVIDE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OVERALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STABLE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
AND VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

STARTING OUT THE MID TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/WAVES TO THE EAST AND THE WEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER...WEAKER AND BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK...THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

IT IS THIS WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL AIDE IN GENERATING MUCH OF
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPAWNED BY THIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WHILE STILL PRESENT DOES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LOWER SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.

THURSDAY IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COULD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS? AND WILL LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER HINDER
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON? THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AIDE IT. IF SUNSHINE CAN PEAK THROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST
MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WHILE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
A DRY LINE OF SORTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT GREAT ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN WITH 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. DO THINK THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THUS LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TOUCH
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

AS THE WAVE/TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL USHER IN A
COLDER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ONSET OF THE DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SUPERBLEND LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN EVEN FROM SUPERBLEND JUST TO REALLY HIT ON
THIS TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FINALLY DRIER DAYS SEEM TO BE IN STORE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOUR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 270545
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1245 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS
NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. AS OF 18Z...THIS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT...A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR ENTIRE AREA.

STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND HRRR OF VERY
WEAK...AND ISOLATED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS REALLY HELD
TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING AND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME
SUN ARE SEEING RAPID...ALBEIT EXTREMELY SHALLOW...CU DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIKELY NO GREATER THAN
100-200J/KG...AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
01Z

LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A TRULY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO GO AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AGAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61.

SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF ~1000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~25KTS. SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...AND WILL PROVIDE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OVERALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STABLE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
AND VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

STARTING OUT THE MID TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/WAVES TO THE EAST AND THE WEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER...WEAKER AND BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK...THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

IT IS THIS WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL AIDE IN GENERATING MUCH OF
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPAWNED BY THIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WHILE STILL PRESENT DOES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LOWER SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.

THURSDAY IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COULD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS? AND WILL LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER HINDER
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON? THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AIDE IT. IF SUNSHINE CAN PEAK THROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST
MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WHILE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
A DRY LINE OF SORTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT GREAT ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN WITH 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. DO THINK THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THUS LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TOUCH
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

AS THE WAVE/TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL USHER IN A
COLDER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ONSET OF THE DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SUPERBLEND LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN EVEN FROM SUPERBLEND JUST TO REALLY HIT ON
THIS TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FINALLY DRIER DAYS SEEM TO BE IN STORE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOUR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 270545
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1245 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS
NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. AS OF 18Z...THIS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT...A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR ENTIRE AREA.

STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND HRRR OF VERY
WEAK...AND ISOLATED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS REALLY HELD
TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING AND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME
SUN ARE SEEING RAPID...ALBEIT EXTREMELY SHALLOW...CU DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIKELY NO GREATER THAN
100-200J/KG...AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
01Z

LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A TRULY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO GO AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AGAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61.

SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF ~1000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~25KTS. SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...AND WILL PROVIDE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OVERALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STABLE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
AND VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

STARTING OUT THE MID TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/WAVES TO THE EAST AND THE WEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER...WEAKER AND BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK...THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

IT IS THIS WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL AIDE IN GENERATING MUCH OF
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPAWNED BY THIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WHILE STILL PRESENT DOES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LOWER SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.

THURSDAY IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COULD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS? AND WILL LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER HINDER
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON? THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AIDE IT. IF SUNSHINE CAN PEAK THROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST
MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WHILE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
A DRY LINE OF SORTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT GREAT ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN WITH 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. DO THINK THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THUS LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TOUCH
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

AS THE WAVE/TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL USHER IN A
COLDER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ONSET OF THE DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SUPERBLEND LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN EVEN FROM SUPERBLEND JUST TO REALLY HIT ON
THIS TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FINALLY DRIER DAYS SEEM TO BE IN STORE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING THE
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING HOUR. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KLBF 270440
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1140 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND REPLACED BY HEIGHT
FALLS BY WED MID DAY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LARGE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PUNCTUATED BY A LARGE PV ANOMALY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY MOVING EAST AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN BAJA. WEAKER PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER ALSO SLIDING EAST AND WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED.

SPECIFICALLY AND CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLING IN OVER NRN
NEB WHILE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ALLOWING DAYTIME INSOLATION
TO QUICKLY GENERATE CU AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER NWRN IA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE LIMITING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE MAINLY SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND.
FURTHER WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND WEAK SFC HIGH AND FALLING HEIGHTS
LEADING TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH TERRAIN FEATURES. AGAIN THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT
AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY WED ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS OVER WESTERN NEB AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY WED. BECAUSE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING...INSTABILITY ON WED WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS SRLY FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY REACH STRONG
LEVELS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (APPROACHING 1.0
INCH) OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THE INSTABILITY...LIFTED
INDICES OF -2C TO -5C...WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE TRAJECTORY CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCH. THE 800MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -4C
TO -7C WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH 25-30KT BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 2500-3000J/KG
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THE UPDRAFT MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
STRONG UPDRAFT TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
MAY PRODUCE A ROTATING UPDRAFT. THEREFORE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEVERE SUPER CELL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

AS A COOL FRONT BACKS AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES UNTIL RETURN FLOW BRINGS THE
FRONT BACK EAST AND BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THAT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
TEMPO FOR -TSRA FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS AFTER 17Z. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS TO 22KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. PLEASE SEE
FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND
LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD MOST OF THE UPSTREAM RELEASES...AND THEREFORE
IMPACTS NOT AS APPARENT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL
OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN
THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CRESTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...JWS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 270440
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1140 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND REPLACED BY HEIGHT
FALLS BY WED MID DAY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LARGE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PUNCTUATED BY A LARGE PV ANOMALY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY MOVING EAST AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN BAJA. WEAKER PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER ALSO SLIDING EAST AND WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED.

SPECIFICALLY AND CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLING IN OVER NRN
NEB WHILE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ALLOWING DAYTIME INSOLATION
TO QUICKLY GENERATE CU AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER NWRN IA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE LIMITING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE MAINLY SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND.
FURTHER WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND WEAK SFC HIGH AND FALLING HEIGHTS
LEADING TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH TERRAIN FEATURES. AGAIN THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT
AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY WED ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS OVER WESTERN NEB AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY WED. BECAUSE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING...INSTABILITY ON WED WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS SRLY FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY REACH STRONG
LEVELS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (APPROACHING 1.0
INCH) OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THE INSTABILITY...LIFTED
INDICES OF -2C TO -5C...WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE TRAJECTORY CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCH. THE 800MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -4C
TO -7C WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH 25-30KT BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 2500-3000J/KG
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THE UPDRAFT MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
STRONG UPDRAFT TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
MAY PRODUCE A ROTATING UPDRAFT. THEREFORE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEVERE SUPER CELL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

AS A COOL FRONT BACKS AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES UNTIL RETURN FLOW BRINGS THE
FRONT BACK EAST AND BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THAT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
TEMPO FOR -TSRA FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS AFTER 17Z. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AFTER 17Z WITH GUSTS TO 22KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. PLEASE SEE
FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND
LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD MOST OF THE UPSTREAM RELEASES...AND THEREFORE
IMPACTS NOT AS APPARENT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL
OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN
THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CRESTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...JWS







000
FXUS63 KOAX 270416
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1116 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS
SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR
THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX
OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS
THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 270416
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1116 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS
SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR
THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX
OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS
THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270416
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1116 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS
SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR
THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX
OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS
THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 270416
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1116 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS
SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR
THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX
OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS
THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 270015
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND REPLACED BY HEIGHT
FALLS BY WED MID DAY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LARGE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PUNCTUATED BY A LARGE PV ANOMALY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY MOVING EAST AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN BAJA. WEAKER PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER ALSO SLIDING EAST AND WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED.

SPECIFICALLY AND CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLING IN OVER NRN
NEB WHILE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ALLOWING DAYTIME INSOLATION
TO QUICKLY GENERATE CU AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER NWRN IA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE LIMITING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE MAINLY SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND.
FURTHER WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND WEAK SFC HIGH AND FALLING HEIGHTS
LEADING TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH TERRAIN FEATURES. AGAIN THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT
AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY WED ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS OVER WESTERN NEB AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY WED. BECAUSE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING...INSTABILITY ON WED WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS SRLY FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY REACH STRONG
LEVELS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (APPROACHING 1.0
INCH) OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THE INSTABILITY...LIFTED
INDICES OF -2C TO -5C...WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE TRAJECTORY CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCH. THE 800MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -4C
TO -7C WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH 25-30KT BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 2500-3000J/KG
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THE UPDRAFT MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
STRONG UPDRAFT TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
MAY PRODUCE A ROTATING UPDRAFT. THEREFORE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEVERE SUPER CELL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

AS A COOL FRONT BACKS AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES UNTIL RETURN FLOW BRINGS THE
FRONT BACK EAST AND BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THAT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
TEMPO FOR -TSRA FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS AFTER 17Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. PLEASE SEE
FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND
LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD MOST OF THE UPSTREAM RELEASES...AND THEREFORE
IMPACTS NOT AS APPARENT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL
OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN
THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CRESTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 270015
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND REPLACED BY HEIGHT
FALLS BY WED MID DAY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LARGE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PUNCTUATED BY A LARGE PV ANOMALY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY MOVING EAST AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN BAJA. WEAKER PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER ALSO SLIDING EAST AND WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED.

SPECIFICALLY AND CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLING IN OVER NRN
NEB WHILE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ALLOWING DAYTIME INSOLATION
TO QUICKLY GENERATE CU AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER NWRN IA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE LIMITING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE MAINLY SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND.
FURTHER WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND WEAK SFC HIGH AND FALLING HEIGHTS
LEADING TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH TERRAIN FEATURES. AGAIN THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT
AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY WED ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS OVER WESTERN NEB AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY WED. BECAUSE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING...INSTABILITY ON WED WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS SRLY FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY REACH STRONG
LEVELS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (APPROACHING 1.0
INCH) OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THE INSTABILITY...LIFTED
INDICES OF -2C TO -5C...WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE TRAJECTORY CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCH. THE 800MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -4C
TO -7C WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH 25-30KT BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 2500-3000J/KG
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THE UPDRAFT MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
STRONG UPDRAFT TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
MAY PRODUCE A ROTATING UPDRAFT. THEREFORE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEVERE SUPER CELL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

AS A COOL FRONT BACKS AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES UNTIL RETURN FLOW BRINGS THE
FRONT BACK EAST AND BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THAT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
TEMPO FOR -TSRA FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS AFTER 17Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. PLEASE SEE
FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND
LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD MOST OF THE UPSTREAM RELEASES...AND THEREFORE
IMPACTS NOT AS APPARENT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL
OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN
THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CRESTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 270015
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND REPLACED BY HEIGHT
FALLS BY WED MID DAY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LARGE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PUNCTUATED BY A LARGE PV ANOMALY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY MOVING EAST AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN BAJA. WEAKER PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER ALSO SLIDING EAST AND WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED.

SPECIFICALLY AND CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLING IN OVER NRN
NEB WHILE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ALLOWING DAYTIME INSOLATION
TO QUICKLY GENERATE CU AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER NWRN IA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE LIMITING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE MAINLY SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND.
FURTHER WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND WEAK SFC HIGH AND FALLING HEIGHTS
LEADING TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH TERRAIN FEATURES. AGAIN THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT
AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY WED ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS OVER WESTERN NEB AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY WED. BECAUSE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING...INSTABILITY ON WED WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS SRLY FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY REACH STRONG
LEVELS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (APPROACHING 1.0
INCH) OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THE INSTABILITY...LIFTED
INDICES OF -2C TO -5C...WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE TRAJECTORY CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCH. THE 800MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -4C
TO -7C WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH 25-30KT BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 2500-3000J/KG
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THE UPDRAFT MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
STRONG UPDRAFT TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
MAY PRODUCE A ROTATING UPDRAFT. THEREFORE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEVERE SUPER CELL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

AS A COOL FRONT BACKS AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES UNTIL RETURN FLOW BRINGS THE
FRONT BACK EAST AND BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THAT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
TEMPO FOR -TSRA FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS AFTER 17Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. PLEASE SEE
FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND
LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD MOST OF THE UPSTREAM RELEASES...AND THEREFORE
IMPACTS NOT AS APPARENT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL
OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN
THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CRESTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 270015
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND REPLACED BY HEIGHT
FALLS BY WED MID DAY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LARGE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PUNCTUATED BY A LARGE PV ANOMALY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY MOVING EAST AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN BAJA. WEAKER PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER ALSO SLIDING EAST AND WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED.

SPECIFICALLY AND CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLING IN OVER NRN
NEB WHILE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ALLOWING DAYTIME INSOLATION
TO QUICKLY GENERATE CU AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER NWRN IA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE LIMITING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE MAINLY SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND.
FURTHER WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND WEAK SFC HIGH AND FALLING HEIGHTS
LEADING TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH TERRAIN FEATURES. AGAIN THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT
AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY WED ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS OVER WESTERN NEB AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY WED. BECAUSE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING...INSTABILITY ON WED WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS SRLY FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY REACH STRONG
LEVELS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (APPROACHING 1.0
INCH) OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THE INSTABILITY...LIFTED
INDICES OF -2C TO -5C...WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE TRAJECTORY CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCH. THE 800MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -4C
TO -7C WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH 25-30KT BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 2500-3000J/KG
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THE UPDRAFT MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
STRONG UPDRAFT TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
MAY PRODUCE A ROTATING UPDRAFT. THEREFORE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEVERE SUPER CELL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

AS A COOL FRONT BACKS AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES UNTIL RETURN FLOW BRINGS THE
FRONT BACK EAST AND BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THAT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
TEMPO FOR -TSRA FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS AFTER 17Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. PLEASE SEE
FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND
LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD MOST OF THE UPSTREAM RELEASES...AND THEREFORE
IMPACTS NOT AS APPARENT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL
OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN
THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CRESTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 270015
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND REPLACED BY HEIGHT
FALLS BY WED MID DAY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LARGE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PUNCTUATED BY A LARGE PV ANOMALY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY MOVING EAST AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN BAJA. WEAKER PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER ALSO SLIDING EAST AND WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED.

SPECIFICALLY AND CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLING IN OVER NRN
NEB WHILE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ALLOWING DAYTIME INSOLATION
TO QUICKLY GENERATE CU AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER NWRN IA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE LIMITING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE MAINLY SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND.
FURTHER WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND WEAK SFC HIGH AND FALLING HEIGHTS
LEADING TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH TERRAIN FEATURES. AGAIN THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT
AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY WED ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS OVER WESTERN NEB AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY WED. BECAUSE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING...INSTABILITY ON WED WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS SRLY FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY REACH STRONG
LEVELS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (APPROACHING 1.0
INCH) OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THE INSTABILITY...LIFTED
INDICES OF -2C TO -5C...WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE TRAJECTORY CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCH. THE 800MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -4C
TO -7C WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH 25-30KT BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 2500-3000J/KG
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THE UPDRAFT MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
STRONG UPDRAFT TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
MAY PRODUCE A ROTATING UPDRAFT. THEREFORE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEVERE SUPER CELL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

AS A COOL FRONT BACKS AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES UNTIL RETURN FLOW BRINGS THE
FRONT BACK EAST AND BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THAT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
TEMPO FOR -TSRA FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS AFTER 17Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. PLEASE SEE
FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND
LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD MOST OF THE UPSTREAM RELEASES...AND THEREFORE
IMPACTS NOT AS APPARENT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL
OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN
THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CRESTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 270015
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND REPLACED BY HEIGHT
FALLS BY WED MID DAY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LARGE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PUNCTUATED BY A LARGE PV ANOMALY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY MOVING EAST AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN BAJA. WEAKER PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER ALSO SLIDING EAST AND WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED.

SPECIFICALLY AND CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLING IN OVER NRN
NEB WHILE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ALLOWING DAYTIME INSOLATION
TO QUICKLY GENERATE CU AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER NWRN IA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE LIMITING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE MAINLY SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND.
FURTHER WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND WEAK SFC HIGH AND FALLING HEIGHTS
LEADING TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH TERRAIN FEATURES. AGAIN THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT
AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY WED ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS OVER WESTERN NEB AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY WED. BECAUSE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING...INSTABILITY ON WED WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS SRLY FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY REACH STRONG
LEVELS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (APPROACHING 1.0
INCH) OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THE INSTABILITY...LIFTED
INDICES OF -2C TO -5C...WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE TRAJECTORY CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCH. THE 800MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -4C
TO -7C WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH 25-30KT BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 2500-3000J/KG
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THE UPDRAFT MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
STRONG UPDRAFT TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
MAY PRODUCE A ROTATING UPDRAFT. THEREFORE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEVERE SUPER CELL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

AS A COOL FRONT BACKS AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES UNTIL RETURN FLOW BRINGS THE
FRONT BACK EAST AND BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THAT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
TEMPO FOR -TSRA FORECAST FOR THE TERMINALS AFTER 17Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. PLEASE SEE
FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND
LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD MOST OF THE UPSTREAM RELEASES...AND THEREFORE
IMPACTS NOT AS APPARENT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL
OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN
THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CRESTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...JWS








000
FXUS63 KGID 262358
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
658 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS
NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. AS OF 18Z...THIS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT...A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR ENTIRE AREA.

STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND HRRR OF VERY
WEAK...AND ISOLATED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS REALLY HELD
TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING AND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME
SUN ARE SEEING RAPID...ALBEIT EXTREMELY SHALLOW...CU DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIKELY NO GREATER THAN
100-200J/KG...AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
01Z

LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A TRULY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO GO AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AGAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61.

SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF ~1000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~25KTS. SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...AND WILL PROVIDE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OVERALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STABLE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
AND VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

STARTING OUT THE MID TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/WAVES TO THE EAST AND THE WEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER...WEAKER AND BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK...THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

IT IS THIS WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL AIDE IN GENERATING MUCH OF
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPAWNED BY THIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WHILE STILL PRESENT DOES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LOWER SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.

THURSDAY IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COULD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS? AND WILL LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER HINDER
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON? THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AIDE IT. IF SUNSHINE CAN PEAK THROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST
MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WHILE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
A DRY LINE OF SORTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT GREAT ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN WITH 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. DO THINK THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THUS LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TOUCH
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

AS THE WAVE/TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL USHER IN A
COLDER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ONSET OF THE DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SUPERBLEND LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN EVEN FROM SUPERBLEND JUST TO REALLY HIT ON
THIS TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FINALLY DRIER DAYS SEEM TO BE IN STORE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL RAMP UP JUST AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH BEFORE 00Z TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS/PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 262358
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
658 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS
NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. AS OF 18Z...THIS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT...A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR ENTIRE AREA.

STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND HRRR OF VERY
WEAK...AND ISOLATED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS REALLY HELD
TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING AND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME
SUN ARE SEEING RAPID...ALBEIT EXTREMELY SHALLOW...CU DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIKELY NO GREATER THAN
100-200J/KG...AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
01Z

LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A TRULY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO GO AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AGAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61.

SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF ~1000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~25KTS. SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...AND WILL PROVIDE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OVERALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STABLE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
AND VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

STARTING OUT THE MID TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/WAVES TO THE EAST AND THE WEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER...WEAKER AND BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK...THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

IT IS THIS WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL AIDE IN GENERATING MUCH OF
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPAWNED BY THIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WHILE STILL PRESENT DOES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LOWER SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.

THURSDAY IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COULD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS? AND WILL LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER HINDER
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON? THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AIDE IT. IF SUNSHINE CAN PEAK THROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST
MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WHILE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
A DRY LINE OF SORTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT GREAT ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN WITH 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. DO THINK THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THUS LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TOUCH
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

AS THE WAVE/TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL USHER IN A
COLDER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ONSET OF THE DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SUPERBLEND LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN EVEN FROM SUPERBLEND JUST TO REALLY HIT ON
THIS TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FINALLY DRIER DAYS SEEM TO BE IN STORE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL RAMP UP JUST AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH BEFORE 00Z TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS/PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 262358
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
658 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS
NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. AS OF 18Z...THIS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT...A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR ENTIRE AREA.

STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND HRRR OF VERY
WEAK...AND ISOLATED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS REALLY HELD
TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING AND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME
SUN ARE SEEING RAPID...ALBEIT EXTREMELY SHALLOW...CU DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIKELY NO GREATER THAN
100-200J/KG...AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
01Z

LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A TRULY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO GO AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AGAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61.

SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF ~1000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~25KTS. SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...AND WILL PROVIDE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OVERALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STABLE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
AND VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

STARTING OUT THE MID TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/WAVES TO THE EAST AND THE WEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER...WEAKER AND BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK...THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

IT IS THIS WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL AIDE IN GENERATING MUCH OF
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPAWNED BY THIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WHILE STILL PRESENT DOES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LOWER SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.

THURSDAY IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COULD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS? AND WILL LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER HINDER
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON? THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AIDE IT. IF SUNSHINE CAN PEAK THROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST
MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WHILE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
A DRY LINE OF SORTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT GREAT ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN WITH 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. DO THINK THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THUS LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TOUCH
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

AS THE WAVE/TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL USHER IN A
COLDER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ONSET OF THE DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SUPERBLEND LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN EVEN FROM SUPERBLEND JUST TO REALLY HIT ON
THIS TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FINALLY DRIER DAYS SEEM TO BE IN STORE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL RAMP UP JUST AFTER THE VALID TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH BEFORE 00Z TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS/PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS
SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR
THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX
OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS
THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AT START OF PERIOD
WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 262326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS
SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR
THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX
OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS
THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AT START OF PERIOD
WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS
SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR
THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX
OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS
THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AT START OF PERIOD
WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS
SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR
THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX
OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS
THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AT START OF PERIOD
WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262326
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS
SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR
THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX
OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS
THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS AT START OF PERIOD
WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 262033
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND REPLACED BY HEIGHT
FALLS BY WED MID DAY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LARGE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PUNCTUATED BY A LARGE PV ANOMALY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY MOVING EAST AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN BAJA. WEAKER PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER ALSO SLIDING EAST AND WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED.

SPECIFICALLY AND CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLING IN OVER NRN
NEB WHILE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ALLOWING DAYTIME INSOLATION
TO QUICKLY GENERATE CU AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER NWRN IA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE LIMITING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE MAINLY SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND.
FURTHER WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND WEAK SFC HIGH AND FALLING HEIGHTS
LEADING TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH TERRAIN FEATURES. AGAIN THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT
AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY WED ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS OVER WESTERN NEB AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY WED. BECAUSE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING...INSTABILITY ON WED WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS SRLY FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY REACH STRONG
LEVELS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (APPROACHING 1.0
INCH) OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THE INSTABILITY...LIFTED
INDICES OF -2C TO -5C...WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE TRAJECTORY CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCH. THE 800MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -4C
TO -7C WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH 25-30KT BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 2500-3000J/KG
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THE UPDRAFT MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
STRONG UPDRAFT TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
MAY PRODUCE A ROTATING UPDRAFT. THEREFORE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEVERE SUPER CELL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

AS A COOL FRONT BACKS AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES UNTIL RETURN FLOW BRINGS THE
FRONT BACK EAST AND BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THAT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KLBF AND KVTN FOR THE FCST PERIOD. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN THE
PANHANDLE. AS CLOUDS CLEAR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CU IS LIKELY AND
MAY PRODUCE SPRINKLES BUT UNDER TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING VERY
LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING. INCREASING
TSRA CHANCES IN THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN NEB DURING THE
MORNING WED SHOULD STAY EAST OF TAF SITES UNTIL BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. PLEASE SEE
FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND
LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD MOST OF THE UPSTREAM RELEASES...AND THEREFORE
IMPACTS NOT AS APPARENT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL
OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN
THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CRESTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JWS
HYDROLOGY...JWS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 262033
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND REPLACED BY HEIGHT
FALLS BY WED MID DAY ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LARGE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PUNCTUATED BY A LARGE PV ANOMALY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAC NW AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY MOVING EAST AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN BAJA. WEAKER PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER ALSO SLIDING EAST AND WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED.

SPECIFICALLY AND CLOSER TO HOME...WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLING IN OVER NRN
NEB WHILE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ALLOWING DAYTIME INSOLATION
TO QUICKLY GENERATE CU AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXITING UPPER LOW OVER NWRN IA. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
ALLOWING CLEARING SKIES AFTER DARK. LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE LIMITING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HENCE MAINLY SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND.
FURTHER WEST...UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND WEAK SFC HIGH AND FALLING HEIGHTS
LEADING TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH TERRAIN FEATURES. AGAIN THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT
AS THE NEXT PV ANOMALY MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY WED ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS OVER WESTERN NEB AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY WED. BECAUSE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING...INSTABILITY ON WED WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS SRLY FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY REACH STRONG
LEVELS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE TRAJECTORY FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY
LINE. THIS WILL HAVE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (APPROACHING 1.0
INCH) OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THE INSTABILITY...LIFTED
INDICES OF -2C TO -5C...WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE TRAJECTORY CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.5 INCH. THE 800MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -4C
TO -7C WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH 25-30KT BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 2500-3000J/KG
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THE UPDRAFT MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
STRONG UPDRAFT TO PERSIST. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
MAY PRODUCE A ROTATING UPDRAFT. THEREFORE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEVERE SUPER CELL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

AS A COOL FRONT BACKS AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES UNTIL RETURN FLOW BRINGS THE
FRONT BACK EAST AND BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THAT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KLBF AND KVTN FOR THE FCST PERIOD. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN THE
PANHANDLE. AS CLOUDS CLEAR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CU IS LIKELY AND
MAY PRODUCE SPRINKLES BUT UNDER TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING VERY
LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING. INCREASING
TSRA CHANCES IN THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN NEB DURING THE
MORNING WED SHOULD STAY EAST OF TAF SITES UNTIL BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER SLOWLY COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH
UPSTREAM RELEASES AND RAINFALL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. PLEASE SEE
FLOOD STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LISCO AND
LEWELLEN FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD MOST OF THE UPSTREAM RELEASES...AND THEREFORE
IMPACTS NOT AS APPARENT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.

THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL
OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN
THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND. SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CRESTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JWS
HYDROLOGY...JWS







000
FXUS63 KOAX 261956
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
256 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS
SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR
THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX
OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS
THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY CONT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT KOMA/KOFK BEFORE
BASES RISE TO AOA FL040. THIS VFR BKN DECK WILL LIKELY THEN CONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING
THIS EVNG. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTN DEVELOP FOR
KOMA/KLNK AS A WEAK FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261956
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
256 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS
SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR
THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX
OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS
THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY CONT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT KOMA/KOFK BEFORE
BASES RISE TO AOA FL040. THIS VFR BKN DECK WILL LIKELY THEN CONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING
THIS EVNG. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTN DEVELOP FOR
KOMA/KLNK AS A WEAK FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261956
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
256 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS
SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR
THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX
OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS
THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY CONT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT KOMA/KOFK BEFORE
BASES RISE TO AOA FL040. THIS VFR BKN DECK WILL LIKELY THEN CONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING
THIS EVNG. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTN DEVELOP FOR
KOMA/KLNK AS A WEAK FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261956
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
256 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS
SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR
THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX
OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS
THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY CONT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT KOMA/KOFK BEFORE
BASES RISE TO AOA FL040. THIS VFR BKN DECK WILL LIKELY THEN CONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING
THIS EVNG. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTN DEVELOP FOR
KOMA/KLNK AS A WEAK FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KGID 261953
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS
NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. AS OF 18Z...THIS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT...A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR ENTIRE AREA.

STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND HRRR OF VERY
WEAK...AND ISOLATED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS REALLY HELD
TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING AND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME
SUN ARE SEEING RAPID...ALBEIT EXTREMELY SHALLOW...CU DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIKELY NO GREATER THAN
100-200J/KG...AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
01Z

LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A TRULY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO GO AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AGAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61.

SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF ~1000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~25KTS. SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...AND WILL PROVIDE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OVERALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STABLE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
AND VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

STARTING OUT THE MID TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/WAVES TO THE EAST AND THE WEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER...WEAKER AND BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK...THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

IT IS THIS WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL AIDE IN GENERATING MUCH OF
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPAWNED BY THIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WHILE STILL PRESENT DOES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LOWER SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.

THURSDAY IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COULD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS? AND WILL LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER HINDER
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON? THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AIDE IT. IF SUNSHINE CAN PEAK THROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST
MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WHILE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
A DRY LINE OF SORTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT GREAT ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN WITH 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. DO THINK THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THUS LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TOUCH
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

AS THE WAVE/TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL USHER IN A
COLDER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ONSET OF THE DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SUPERBLEND LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN EVEN FROM SUPERBLEND JUST TO REALLY HIT ON
THIS TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FINALLY DRIER DAYS SEEM TO BE IN STORE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STRATUS...WITH CEILING GENERALLY IN THE 1000-3000FT AGL
RANGE...PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF
SITES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH BKN015 AT KGRI AND BKN025 AT
KEAR UNTIL 20Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES 20Z
ONWARD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 261953
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS
NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. AS OF 18Z...THIS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT...A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR ENTIRE AREA.

STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND HRRR OF VERY
WEAK...AND ISOLATED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS REALLY HELD
TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING AND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME
SUN ARE SEEING RAPID...ALBEIT EXTREMELY SHALLOW...CU DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIKELY NO GREATER THAN
100-200J/KG...AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
01Z

LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A TRULY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO GO AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AGAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61.

SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF ~1000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~25KTS. SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...AND WILL PROVIDE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OVERALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STABLE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
AND VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

STARTING OUT THE MID TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/WAVES TO THE EAST AND THE WEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER...WEAKER AND BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK...THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

IT IS THIS WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL AIDE IN GENERATING MUCH OF
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPAWNED BY THIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WHILE STILL PRESENT DOES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LOWER SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.

THURSDAY IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COULD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS? AND WILL LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER HINDER
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON? THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AIDE IT. IF SUNSHINE CAN PEAK THROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST
MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WHILE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
A DRY LINE OF SORTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT GREAT ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN WITH 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. DO THINK THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THUS LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TOUCH
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

AS THE WAVE/TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL USHER IN A
COLDER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ONSET OF THE DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SUPERBLEND LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN EVEN FROM SUPERBLEND JUST TO REALLY HIT ON
THIS TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FINALLY DRIER DAYS SEEM TO BE IN STORE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STRATUS...WITH CEILING GENERALLY IN THE 1000-3000FT AGL
RANGE...PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF
SITES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH BKN015 AT KGRI AND BKN025 AT
KEAR UNTIL 20Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES 20Z
ONWARD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 261953
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS
NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. AS OF 18Z...THIS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT...A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR ENTIRE AREA.

STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND HRRR OF VERY
WEAK...AND ISOLATED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS REALLY HELD
TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING AND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME
SUN ARE SEEING RAPID...ALBEIT EXTREMELY SHALLOW...CU DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIKELY NO GREATER THAN
100-200J/KG...AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
01Z

LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A TRULY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO GO AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AGAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61.

SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF ~1000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~25KTS. SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...AND WILL PROVIDE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OVERALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STABLE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
AND VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

STARTING OUT THE MID TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/WAVES TO THE EAST AND THE WEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER...WEAKER AND BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK...THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

IT IS THIS WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL AIDE IN GENERATING MUCH OF
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPAWNED BY THIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WHILE STILL PRESENT DOES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LOWER SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.

THURSDAY IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COULD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS? AND WILL LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER HINDER
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON? THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AIDE IT. IF SUNSHINE CAN PEAK THROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST
MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WHILE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
A DRY LINE OF SORTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT GREAT ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN WITH 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. DO THINK THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THUS LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TOUCH
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

AS THE WAVE/TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL USHER IN A
COLDER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ONSET OF THE DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SUPERBLEND LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN EVEN FROM SUPERBLEND JUST TO REALLY HIT ON
THIS TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FINALLY DRIER DAYS SEEM TO BE IN STORE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STRATUS...WITH CEILING GENERALLY IN THE 1000-3000FT AGL
RANGE...PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF
SITES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH BKN015 AT KGRI AND BKN025 AT
KEAR UNTIL 20Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES 20Z
ONWARD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 261953
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS
NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW. AS OF 18Z...THIS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT...A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR ENTIRE AREA.

STARTING WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN OVERALL LACK IN
OMEGA WOULD SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA.
THAT SAID...THERE ARE HINTS FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM AND HRRR OF VERY
WEAK...AND ISOLATED...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STRATUS REALLY HELD
TEMPERATURE READINGS DOWN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
STRATUS IS NOW DISSIPATING AND THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME
SUN ARE SEEING RAPID...ALBEIT EXTREMELY SHALLOW...CU DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIKELY NO GREATER THAN
100-200J/KG...AND FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SUGGEST THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
01Z

LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A TRULY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA
SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS BOTH SUGGEST INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61. THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK IN
OMEGA SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED...BUT
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO GO AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AGAIN...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
KODX...TO KGRI AND KK61.

SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF ~1000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP-
LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~25KTS. SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...AND WILL PROVIDE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST
PART TONIGHT. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-
LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT THERMAL ADVECTION...WORKING IN
CONCERT WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OVERALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STABLE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES.
NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ROUND OUT THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
AND VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

STARTING OUT THE MID TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN
FLANKED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/WAVES TO THE EAST AND THE WEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
FASTER...WEAKER AND BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK...THAN THE
GFS SOLUTION.

IT IS THIS WESTERN TROUGH WHICH WILL AIDE IN GENERATING MUCH OF
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPAWNED BY THIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WHILE STILL PRESENT DOES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND THUS LOWER SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL.

THURSDAY IS FAR MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DRY OUT
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COULD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LINGER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS? AND WILL LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER HINDER
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON? THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TO AIDE IT. IF SUNSHINE CAN PEAK THROUGH...MODELS SUGGEST
MU CAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3000 J/KG...WHILE DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
A DRY LINE OF SORTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SAID...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT GREAT ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUN WITH 15 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO
AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER. DO THINK THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL...THUS LOWERED TEMPS JUST A TOUCH
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.

AS THE WAVE/TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WILL USHER IN A
COLDER DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN IS AGAIN EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ONSET OF THE DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH SUPERBLEND LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN EVEN FROM SUPERBLEND JUST TO REALLY HIT ON
THIS TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FINALLY DRIER DAYS SEEM TO BE IN STORE...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AGAIN...WITH
HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STRATUS...WITH CEILING GENERALLY IN THE 1000-3000FT AGL
RANGE...PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF
SITES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH BKN015 AT KGRI AND BKN025 AT
KEAR UNTIL 20Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES 20Z
ONWARD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KLBF 261737
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1237 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON  CURRENT WEATHER WITH UPPER WAVE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS ISOLATED TRW MOVING NORTH WHEELER
HOLT COUNTIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OVER CHERRY
SHERIDAN COUNTIES MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS FAIRLY WELL HANDLED
IN THE NAM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS ITS SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT FORECAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. HAVE CUT TEMPERATURES BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVER NIGHT
TO THE WEST. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES APPROACHING WESTERN NEBRASKA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RETAINED SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. LOWS
TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...SHOVING THE RIDGE FROM TUESDAY TO
THE EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE CWA
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. FORCING
ALOFT APPEARS TO BE RATHER WEAK...SO THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIURNALLY
DRIVEN EVENT WITH STORMS CARRIED EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT BY A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN 300MB FLOW OF
ONLY 25 KTS. EXPECTING ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT
THIS TIME...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. LEE SIDE TROUGH PUSHES EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS
THE AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RECEIVES A LOW LEVEL FETCH FROM THE GULF
AND A STREAM OF MOISTURE ALOFT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISE PWATS APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES...WHICH WOULD BE PUSHING THE
UPPER LIMIT OF LOCAL CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN FROM THE ONSET OF CONVECTION
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS JUNCTURE. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKLY
FORCED/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...LEADING
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER FRIDAY AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTS COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/EC HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ADVERTISE A
QUIET BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND FOR THE SANDHILLS REGION
UNDERNEATH SYNOOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KLBF AND KVTN FOR THE FCST PERIOD. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN THE
PANHANDLE. AS CLOUDS CLEAR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CU IS LIKELY AND
MAY PRODUCE SPRINKLES BUT UNDER TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING VERY
LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING. INCREASING
TSRA CHANCES IN THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN NEB DURING THE
MORNING WED SHOULD STAY EAST OF TAF SITES UNTIL BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH UPSTREAM
RELEASES. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD
MOST OF THE UPSTREAM RELEASES. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING
UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME
WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JWS
HYDROLOGY...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 261737
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1237 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON  CURRENT WEATHER WITH UPPER WAVE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS ISOLATED TRW MOVING NORTH WHEELER
HOLT COUNTIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OVER CHERRY
SHERIDAN COUNTIES MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS FAIRLY WELL HANDLED
IN THE NAM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS ITS SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT FORECAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. HAVE CUT TEMPERATURES BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVER NIGHT
TO THE WEST. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES APPROACHING WESTERN NEBRASKA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RETAINED SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. LOWS
TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...SHOVING THE RIDGE FROM TUESDAY TO
THE EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE CWA
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. FORCING
ALOFT APPEARS TO BE RATHER WEAK...SO THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIURNALLY
DRIVEN EVENT WITH STORMS CARRIED EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT BY A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN 300MB FLOW OF
ONLY 25 KTS. EXPECTING ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT
THIS TIME...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. LEE SIDE TROUGH PUSHES EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS
THE AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RECEIVES A LOW LEVEL FETCH FROM THE GULF
AND A STREAM OF MOISTURE ALOFT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISE PWATS APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES...WHICH WOULD BE PUSHING THE
UPPER LIMIT OF LOCAL CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN FROM THE ONSET OF CONVECTION
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS JUNCTURE. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKLY
FORCED/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...LEADING
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER FRIDAY AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTS COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/EC HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ADVERTISE A
QUIET BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND FOR THE SANDHILLS REGION
UNDERNEATH SYNOOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KLBF AND KVTN FOR THE FCST PERIOD. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK UPSLOPE DEVELOPING IN THE
PANHANDLE. AS CLOUDS CLEAR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CU IS LIKELY AND
MAY PRODUCE SPRINKLES BUT UNDER TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING VERY
LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING. INCREASING
TSRA CHANCES IN THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN NEB DURING THE
MORNING WED SHOULD STAY EAST OF TAF SITES UNTIL BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD.



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH UPSTREAM
RELEASES. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD
MOST OF THE UPSTREAM RELEASES. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING
UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME
WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...JWS
HYDROLOGY...POWER







000
FXUS63 KGID 261734
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THERE TO BE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. WITH
THE TEMPERATURES WARMING...EXPECT CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST...BUT HAVE A LITTLE
WORRY THAT SOME OF THE CUMULUS COULD PRODUCE A SPRINKLE DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREA DRY TO START THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THIS DRY BREAK WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WITH YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN A 30-40KT LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THAT SAID...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY AND WITH
INSTABILITY SURGING ACROSS THE REGION AND LITTLE INHIBITION IN
PLACE...A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...AND ONCE AGAIN PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK BOTH DAYS...SO UNLESS
THERE IS A MAJOR CHANCE IN FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER DAY AND ISOLATED HAILERS AND
WINDS PRODUCERS SEEM LIKE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS EAST ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SHOULD
BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED THE PAST
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AS MORE STABLE
AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S...MAKING FOR A NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

STRATUS...WITH CEILING GENERALLY IN THE 1000-3000FT AGL
RANGE...PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF
SITES. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH BKN015 AT KGRI AND BKN025 AT
KEAR UNTIL 20Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES 20Z
ONWARD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS
NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261731
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING IN AND AROUND THE
CWA THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OPENING UP OVER CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
UPSTREAM LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN WA/SOUTHERN BC.  WEAK 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WERE RISING OVER THE CONUS. WEAK AND NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF 75-85KT WAS NOTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND INTO EASTERN NEB.  WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL
NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...8C+ DEWPOINTS
WERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25-35KT 850MB
FLOW.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST IA/EAST CENTRAL
NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SLOW WIND-DOWN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY.  LIKELY WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST IA...UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TAKE
OVER IN ITS WAKE.  HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HANGING AROUND.

ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT...WHICH SHOULD BE BY AROUND 00Z...QUIETER
WEATHER SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DO NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE LOW...AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE
ON THE MAX TEMPS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW=LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT...SO DID TREND POPS DOWNWARD.  POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY
UNDER CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  DID
INCREASE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE
OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STABILITY...WHICH MAY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THOSE PERIODS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
TROUGH PASSAGES THESE LAST FEW WEEKS...PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND
MURKY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOCUSED AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.  ECMWF
IS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND BOTH ECMWF/GFS BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY
NORTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS...SUSPECT SATURDAY
MIGHT BE A COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD UNDER RETURN FLOW...AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY CONT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT KOMA/KOFK BEFORE
BASES RISE TO AOA FL040. THIS VFR BKN DECK WILL LIKELY THEN CONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING
THIS EVNG. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTN DEVELOP FOR
KOMA/KLNK AS A WEAK FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261731
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING IN AND AROUND THE
CWA THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OPENING UP OVER CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
UPSTREAM LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN WA/SOUTHERN BC.  WEAK 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WERE RISING OVER THE CONUS. WEAK AND NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF 75-85KT WAS NOTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND INTO EASTERN NEB.  WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL
NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...8C+ DEWPOINTS
WERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25-35KT 850MB
FLOW.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST IA/EAST CENTRAL
NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SLOW WIND-DOWN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY.  LIKELY WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST IA...UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TAKE
OVER IN ITS WAKE.  HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HANGING AROUND.

ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT...WHICH SHOULD BE BY AROUND 00Z...QUIETER
WEATHER SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DO NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE LOW...AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE
ON THE MAX TEMPS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW=LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT...SO DID TREND POPS DOWNWARD.  POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY
UNDER CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  DID
INCREASE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE
OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STABILITY...WHICH MAY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THOSE PERIODS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
TROUGH PASSAGES THESE LAST FEW WEEKS...PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND
MURKY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOCUSED AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.  ECMWF
IS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND BOTH ECMWF/GFS BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY
NORTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS...SUSPECT SATURDAY
MIGHT BE A COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD UNDER RETURN FLOW...AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY CONT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT KOMA/KOFK BEFORE
BASES RISE TO AOA FL040. THIS VFR BKN DECK WILL LIKELY THEN CONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING
THIS EVNG. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTN DEVELOP FOR
KOMA/KLNK AS A WEAK FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261731
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING IN AND AROUND THE
CWA THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OPENING UP OVER CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
UPSTREAM LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN WA/SOUTHERN BC.  WEAK 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WERE RISING OVER THE CONUS. WEAK AND NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF 75-85KT WAS NOTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND INTO EASTERN NEB.  WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL
NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...8C+ DEWPOINTS
WERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25-35KT 850MB
FLOW.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST IA/EAST CENTRAL
NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SLOW WIND-DOWN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY.  LIKELY WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST IA...UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TAKE
OVER IN ITS WAKE.  HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HANGING AROUND.

ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT...WHICH SHOULD BE BY AROUND 00Z...QUIETER
WEATHER SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DO NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE LOW...AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE
ON THE MAX TEMPS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW=LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT...SO DID TREND POPS DOWNWARD.  POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY
UNDER CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  DID
INCREASE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE
OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STABILITY...WHICH MAY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THOSE PERIODS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
TROUGH PASSAGES THESE LAST FEW WEEKS...PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND
MURKY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOCUSED AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.  ECMWF
IS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND BOTH ECMWF/GFS BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY
NORTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS...SUSPECT SATURDAY
MIGHT BE A COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD UNDER RETURN FLOW...AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY CONT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT KOMA/KOFK BEFORE
BASES RISE TO AOA FL040. THIS VFR BKN DECK WILL LIKELY THEN CONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING
THIS EVNG. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTN DEVELOP FOR
KOMA/KLNK AS A WEAK FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261731
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING IN AND AROUND THE
CWA THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OPENING UP OVER CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
UPSTREAM LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN WA/SOUTHERN BC.  WEAK 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WERE RISING OVER THE CONUS. WEAK AND NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF 75-85KT WAS NOTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND INTO EASTERN NEB.  WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL
NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...8C+ DEWPOINTS
WERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25-35KT 850MB
FLOW.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST IA/EAST CENTRAL
NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SLOW WIND-DOWN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY.  LIKELY WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST IA...UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TAKE
OVER IN ITS WAKE.  HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HANGING AROUND.

ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT...WHICH SHOULD BE BY AROUND 00Z...QUIETER
WEATHER SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DO NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE LOW...AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE
ON THE MAX TEMPS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW=LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT...SO DID TREND POPS DOWNWARD.  POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY
UNDER CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  DID
INCREASE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE
OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STABILITY...WHICH MAY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THOSE PERIODS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
TROUGH PASSAGES THESE LAST FEW WEEKS...PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND
MURKY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOCUSED AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.  ECMWF
IS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND BOTH ECMWF/GFS BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY
NORTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS...SUSPECT SATURDAY
MIGHT BE A COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD UNDER RETURN FLOW...AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY CONT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT KOMA/KOFK BEFORE
BASES RISE TO AOA FL040. THIS VFR BKN DECK WILL LIKELY THEN CONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING
THIS EVNG. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTN DEVELOP FOR
KOMA/KLNK AS A WEAK FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KLBF 261151 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
651 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON  CURRENT WEATHER WITH UPPER WAVE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS ISOLATED TRW MOVING NORTH WHEELER
HOLT COUNTIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OVER CHERRY
SHERIDAN COUNTIES MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS FAIRLY WELL HANDLED
IN THE NAM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS ITS SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT FORECAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. HAVE CUT TEMPERATURES BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVER NIGHT
TO THE WEST. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES APPROACHING WESTERN NEBRASKA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RETAINED SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. LOWS
TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...SHOVING THE RIDGE FROM TUESDAY TO
THE EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE CWA
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. FORCING
ALOFT APPEARS TO BE RATHER WEAK...SO THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIURNALLY
DRIVEN EVENT WITH STORMS CARRIED EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT BY A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN 300MB FLOW OF
ONLY 25 KTS. EXPECTING ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT
THIS TIME...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. LEE SIDE TROUGH PUSHES EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS
THE AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RECEIVES A LOW LEVEL FETCH FROM THE GULF
AND A STREAM OF MOISTURE ALOFT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISE PWATS APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES...WHICH WOULD BE PUSHING THE
UPPER LIMIT OF LOCAL CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN FROM THE ONSET OF CONVECTION
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS JUNCTURE. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKLY
FORCED/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...LEADING
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER FRIDAY AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTS COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/EC HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ADVERTISE A
QUIET BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND FOR THE SANDHILLS REGION
UNDERNEATH SYNOOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS...STRATUS...WERE SCATTERED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KONL. CLOUDS WERE
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
BETWEEN KVTN AND KLBF. SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS COULD MOVE
THROUGH THESE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GOING
AT KVTN. NOT AS CERTAIN AT KLBF SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT LESS THAN 10KTS.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTER
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
THIS AFTERNOON THUNDER WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE EAST
WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH UPSTREAM
RELEASES. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD
MOST OF TE UPSTREAM RELEASES. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING
UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME
WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 261151 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
651 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON  CURRENT WEATHER WITH UPPER WAVE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS ISOLATED TRW MOVING NORTH WHEELER
HOLT COUNTIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OVER CHERRY
SHERIDAN COUNTIES MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS FAIRLY WELL HANDLED
IN THE NAM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS ITS SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT FORECAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. HAVE CUT TEMPERATURES BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVER NIGHT
TO THE WEST. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES APPROACHING WESTERN NEBRASKA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RETAINED SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. LOWS
TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...SHOVING THE RIDGE FROM TUESDAY TO
THE EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE CWA
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. FORCING
ALOFT APPEARS TO BE RATHER WEAK...SO THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIURNALLY
DRIVEN EVENT WITH STORMS CARRIED EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT BY A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN 300MB FLOW OF
ONLY 25 KTS. EXPECTING ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT
THIS TIME...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. LEE SIDE TROUGH PUSHES EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS
THE AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RECEIVES A LOW LEVEL FETCH FROM THE GULF
AND A STREAM OF MOISTURE ALOFT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISE PWATS APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES...WHICH WOULD BE PUSHING THE
UPPER LIMIT OF LOCAL CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN FROM THE ONSET OF CONVECTION
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS JUNCTURE. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKLY
FORCED/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...LEADING
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER FRIDAY AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTS COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/EC HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ADVERTISE A
QUIET BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND FOR THE SANDHILLS REGION
UNDERNEATH SYNOOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS...STRATUS...WERE SCATTERED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KONL. CLOUDS WERE
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
BETWEEN KVTN AND KLBF. SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS COULD MOVE
THROUGH THESE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GOING
AT KVTN. NOT AS CERTAIN AT KLBF SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT LESS THAN 10KTS.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTER
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
THIS AFTERNOON THUNDER WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE EAST
WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH UPSTREAM
RELEASES. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD
MOST OF TE UPSTREAM RELEASES. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING
UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME
WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...POWER






000
FXUS63 KOAX 261142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
642 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING IN AND AROUND THE
CWA THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OPENING UP OVER CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
UPSTREAM LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN WA/SOUTHERN BC.  WEAK 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WERE RISING OVER THE CONUS. WEAK AND NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF 75-85KT WAS NOTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND INTO EASTERN NEB.  WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL
NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...8C+ DEWPOINTS
WERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25-35KT 850MB
FLOW.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST IA/EAST CENTRAL
NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SLOW WIND-DOWN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY.  LIKELY WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST IA...UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TAKE
OVER IN ITS WAKE.  HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HANGING AROUND.

ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT...WHICH SHOULD BE BY AROUND 00Z...QUIETER
WEATHER SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DO NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE LOW...AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE
ON THE MAX TEMPS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW=LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT...SO DID TREND POPS DOWNWARD.  POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY
UNDER CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  DID
INCREASE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE
OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STABILITY...WHICH MAY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THOSE PERIODS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
TROUGH PASSAGES THESE LAST FEW WEEKS...PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND
MURKY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOCUSED AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.  ECMWF
IS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND BOTH ECMWF/GFS BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY
NORTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS...SUSPECT SATURDAY
MIGHT BE A COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD UNDER RETURN FLOW...AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE AS A LOW SPINS OVERHEAD. WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST AS NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE SPREADS EAST. SFC WINDS WILL BE COMING AROUND
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT OR
CLEAR BY LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
642 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING IN AND AROUND THE
CWA THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OPENING UP OVER CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
UPSTREAM LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN WA/SOUTHERN BC.  WEAK 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WERE RISING OVER THE CONUS. WEAK AND NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF 75-85KT WAS NOTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND INTO EASTERN NEB.  WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL
NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...8C+ DEWPOINTS
WERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25-35KT 850MB
FLOW.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST IA/EAST CENTRAL
NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SLOW WIND-DOWN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY.  LIKELY WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST IA...UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TAKE
OVER IN ITS WAKE.  HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HANGING AROUND.

ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT...WHICH SHOULD BE BY AROUND 00Z...QUIETER
WEATHER SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DO NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE LOW...AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE
ON THE MAX TEMPS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW=LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT...SO DID TREND POPS DOWNWARD.  POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY
UNDER CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  DID
INCREASE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE
OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STABILITY...WHICH MAY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THOSE PERIODS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
TROUGH PASSAGES THESE LAST FEW WEEKS...PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND
MURKY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOCUSED AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.  ECMWF
IS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND BOTH ECMWF/GFS BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY
NORTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS...SUSPECT SATURDAY
MIGHT BE A COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD UNDER RETURN FLOW...AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE AS A LOW SPINS OVERHEAD. WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST AS NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE SPREADS EAST. SFC WINDS WILL BE COMING AROUND
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT OR
CLEAR BY LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
642 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING IN AND AROUND THE
CWA THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OPENING UP OVER CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
UPSTREAM LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN WA/SOUTHERN BC.  WEAK 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WERE RISING OVER THE CONUS. WEAK AND NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF 75-85KT WAS NOTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND INTO EASTERN NEB.  WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL
NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...8C+ DEWPOINTS
WERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25-35KT 850MB
FLOW.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST IA/EAST CENTRAL
NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SLOW WIND-DOWN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY.  LIKELY WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST IA...UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TAKE
OVER IN ITS WAKE.  HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HANGING AROUND.

ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT...WHICH SHOULD BE BY AROUND 00Z...QUIETER
WEATHER SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DO NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE LOW...AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE
ON THE MAX TEMPS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW=LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT...SO DID TREND POPS DOWNWARD.  POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY
UNDER CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  DID
INCREASE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE
OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STABILITY...WHICH MAY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THOSE PERIODS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
TROUGH PASSAGES THESE LAST FEW WEEKS...PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND
MURKY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOCUSED AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.  ECMWF
IS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND BOTH ECMWF/GFS BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY
NORTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS...SUSPECT SATURDAY
MIGHT BE A COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD UNDER RETURN FLOW...AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE AS A LOW SPINS OVERHEAD. WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST AS NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE SPREADS EAST. SFC WINDS WILL BE COMING AROUND
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT OR
CLEAR BY LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
642 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING IN AND AROUND THE
CWA THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OPENING UP OVER CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
UPSTREAM LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN WA/SOUTHERN BC.  WEAK 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WERE RISING OVER THE CONUS. WEAK AND NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF 75-85KT WAS NOTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND INTO EASTERN NEB.  WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL
NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...8C+ DEWPOINTS
WERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25-35KT 850MB
FLOW.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST IA/EAST CENTRAL
NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SLOW WIND-DOWN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY.  LIKELY WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST IA...UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TAKE
OVER IN ITS WAKE.  HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HANGING AROUND.

ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT...WHICH SHOULD BE BY AROUND 00Z...QUIETER
WEATHER SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DO NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE LOW...AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE
ON THE MAX TEMPS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW=LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT...SO DID TREND POPS DOWNWARD.  POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY
UNDER CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  DID
INCREASE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE
OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STABILITY...WHICH MAY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THOSE PERIODS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
TROUGH PASSAGES THESE LAST FEW WEEKS...PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND
MURKY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOCUSED AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.  ECMWF
IS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND BOTH ECMWF/GFS BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY
NORTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS...SUSPECT SATURDAY
MIGHT BE A COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD UNDER RETURN FLOW...AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
CYCLE AS A LOW SPINS OVERHEAD. WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST AS NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE SPREADS EAST. SFC WINDS WILL BE COMING AROUND
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT OR
CLEAR BY LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KGID 261119
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THERE TO BE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. WITH
THE TEMPERATURES WARMING...EXPECT CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST...BUT HAVE A LITTLE
WORRY THAT SOME OF THE CUMULUS COULD PRODUCE A SPRINKLE DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREA DRY TO START THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THIS DRY BREAK WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WITH YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN A 30-40KT LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THAT SAID...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY AND WITH
INSTABILITY SURGING ACROSS THE REGION AND LITTLE INHIBITION IN
PLACE...A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...AND ONCE AGAIN PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK BOTH DAYS...SO UNLESS
THERE IS A MAJOR CHANCE IN FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER DAY AND ISOLATED HAILERS AND
WINDS PRODUCERS SEEM LIKE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS EAST ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SHOULD
BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED THE PAST
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AS MORE STABLE
AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S...MAKING FOR A NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT KEAR.
EXPECT THAT KGRI SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT AS THE SHOWERS MOVE
TOWARD THE TERMINAL COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR. SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AS THEY DO.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 261119
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THERE TO BE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. WITH
THE TEMPERATURES WARMING...EXPECT CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST...BUT HAVE A LITTLE
WORRY THAT SOME OF THE CUMULUS COULD PRODUCE A SPRINKLE DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREA DRY TO START THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THIS DRY BREAK WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WITH YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN A 30-40KT LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THAT SAID...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY AND WITH
INSTABILITY SURGING ACROSS THE REGION AND LITTLE INHIBITION IN
PLACE...A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...AND ONCE AGAIN PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK BOTH DAYS...SO UNLESS
THERE IS A MAJOR CHANCE IN FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER DAY AND ISOLATED HAILERS AND
WINDS PRODUCERS SEEM LIKE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS EAST ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SHOULD
BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED THE PAST
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AS MORE STABLE
AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S...MAKING FOR A NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT KEAR.
EXPECT THAT KGRI SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT AS THE SHOWERS MOVE
TOWARD THE TERMINAL COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR. SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AS THEY DO.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 261119
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THERE TO BE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. WITH
THE TEMPERATURES WARMING...EXPECT CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST...BUT HAVE A LITTLE
WORRY THAT SOME OF THE CUMULUS COULD PRODUCE A SPRINKLE DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREA DRY TO START THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THIS DRY BREAK WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WITH YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN A 30-40KT LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THAT SAID...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY AND WITH
INSTABILITY SURGING ACROSS THE REGION AND LITTLE INHIBITION IN
PLACE...A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...AND ONCE AGAIN PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK BOTH DAYS...SO UNLESS
THERE IS A MAJOR CHANCE IN FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER DAY AND ISOLATED HAILERS AND
WINDS PRODUCERS SEEM LIKE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS EAST ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SHOULD
BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED THE PAST
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AS MORE STABLE
AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S...MAKING FOR A NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT KEAR.
EXPECT THAT KGRI SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT AS THE SHOWERS MOVE
TOWARD THE TERMINAL COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR. SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AS THEY DO.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 261119
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THERE TO BE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. WITH
THE TEMPERATURES WARMING...EXPECT CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST...BUT HAVE A LITTLE
WORRY THAT SOME OF THE CUMULUS COULD PRODUCE A SPRINKLE DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREA DRY TO START THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THIS DRY BREAK WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WITH YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN A 30-40KT LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THAT SAID...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY AND WITH
INSTABILITY SURGING ACROSS THE REGION AND LITTLE INHIBITION IN
PLACE...A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...AND ONCE AGAIN PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK BOTH DAYS...SO UNLESS
THERE IS A MAJOR CHANCE IN FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER DAY AND ISOLATED HAILERS AND
WINDS PRODUCERS SEEM LIKE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS EAST ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SHOULD
BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED THE PAST
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AS MORE STABLE
AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S...MAKING FOR A NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT KEAR.
EXPECT THAT KGRI SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT AS THE SHOWERS MOVE
TOWARD THE TERMINAL COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR. SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AS THEY DO.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 261119
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THERE TO BE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. WITH
THE TEMPERATURES WARMING...EXPECT CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST...BUT HAVE A LITTLE
WORRY THAT SOME OF THE CUMULUS COULD PRODUCE A SPRINKLE DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREA DRY TO START THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THIS DRY BREAK WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WITH YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN A 30-40KT LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THAT SAID...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY AND WITH
INSTABILITY SURGING ACROSS THE REGION AND LITTLE INHIBITION IN
PLACE...A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...AND ONCE AGAIN PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK BOTH DAYS...SO UNLESS
THERE IS A MAJOR CHANCE IN FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER DAY AND ISOLATED HAILERS AND
WINDS PRODUCERS SEEM LIKE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS EAST ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SHOULD
BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED THE PAST
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AS MORE STABLE
AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S...MAKING FOR A NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT KEAR.
EXPECT THAT KGRI SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT AS THE SHOWERS MOVE
TOWARD THE TERMINAL COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR. SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE
AS THEY DO.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260858
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
358 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THERE TO BE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. WITH
THE TEMPERATURES WARMING...EXPECT CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST...BUT HAVE A LITTLE
WORRY THAT SOME OF THE CUMULUS COULD PRODUCE A SPRINKLE DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREA DRY TO START THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THIS DRY BREAK WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WITH YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN A 30-40KT LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THAT SAID...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY AND WITH
INSTABILITY SURGING ACROSS THE REGION AND LITTLE INHIBITION IN
PLACE...A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...AND ONCE AGAIN PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK BOTH DAYS...SO UNLESS
THERE IS A MAJOR CHANCE IN FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER DAY AND ISOLATED HAILERS AND
WINDS PRODUCERS SEEM LIKE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS EAST ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SHOULD
BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED THE PAST
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AS MORE STABLE
AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S...MAKING FOR A NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAY BREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR BUT THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 260858
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
358 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THERE TO BE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S. WITH
THE TEMPERATURES WARMING...EXPECT CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST...BUT HAVE A LITTLE
WORRY THAT SOME OF THE CUMULUS COULD PRODUCE A SPRINKLE DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREA DRY TO START THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THIS DRY BREAK WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...
HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WITH YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN A 30-40KT LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...HELPING TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THAT SAID...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY AND WITH
INSTABILITY SURGING ACROSS THE REGION AND LITTLE INHIBITION IN
PLACE...A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...AND ONCE AGAIN PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THAT SAID...SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY WEAK BOTH DAYS...SO UNLESS
THERE IS A MAJOR CHANCE IN FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER DAY AND ISOLATED HAILERS AND
WINDS PRODUCERS SEEM LIKE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS EAST ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH SHOULD
BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. WHILE NOT AS COOL AS THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED THE PAST
WEEK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AS MORE STABLE
AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S...MAKING FOR A NICE FINISH TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAY BREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR BUT THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KLBF 260832
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON  CURRENT WEATHER WITH UPPER WAVE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS ISOLATED TRW MOVING NORTH WHEELER
HOLT COUNTIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OVER CHERRY
SHERIDAN COUNTIES MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS FAIRLY WELL HANDLED
IN THE NAM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS ITS SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT FORECAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. HAVE CUT TEMPERATURES BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVER NIGHT
TO THE WEST. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES APPROACHING WESTERN NEBRASKA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RETAINED SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. LOWS
TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...SHOVING THE RIDGE FROM TUESDAY TO
THE EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE CWA
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. FORCING
ALOFT APPEARS TO BE RATHER WEAK...SO THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIURNALLY
DRIVEN EVENT WITH STORMS CARRIED EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT BY A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN 300MB FLOW OF
ONLY 25 KTS. EXPECTING ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT
THIS TIME...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. LEE SIDE TROUGH PUSHES EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS
THE AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RECEIVES A LOW LEVEL FETCH FROM THE GULF
AND A STREAM OF MOISTURE ALOFT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISE PWATS APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES...WHICH WOULD BE PUSHING THE
UPPER LIMIT OF LOCAL CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN FROM THE ONSET OF CONVECTION
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS JUNCTURE. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKLY
FORCED/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...LEADING
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER FRIDAY AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTS COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/EC HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ADVERTISE A
QUIET BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND FOR THE SANDHILLS REGION
UNDERNEATH SYNOOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT KLBF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 11Z...THEN FROM 11Z-14Z
5SM BR OVC015...AFTER 14Z...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY
16Z.

AT KVTN...MVFR CEILING TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...THEN 09Z-13Z 3SM
BR SCT009 OVC015. MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 13Z SHOULD BECOME VFR BY
15Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH UPSTREAM
RELEASES. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD
MOST OF TE UPSTREAM RELEASES. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING
UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME
WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 260832
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON  CURRENT WEATHER WITH UPPER WAVE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS ISOLATED TRW MOVING NORTH WHEELER
HOLT COUNTIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OVER CHERRY
SHERIDAN COUNTIES MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS FAIRLY WELL HANDLED
IN THE NAM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS ITS SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT FORECAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. HAVE CUT TEMPERATURES BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVER NIGHT
TO THE WEST. A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES APPROACHING WESTERN NEBRASKA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RETAINED SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. LOWS
TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...SHOVING THE RIDGE FROM TUESDAY TO
THE EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE CWA
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. FORCING
ALOFT APPEARS TO BE RATHER WEAK...SO THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DIURNALLY
DRIVEN EVENT WITH STORMS CARRIED EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT BY A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN 300MB FLOW OF
ONLY 25 KTS. EXPECTING ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT
THIS TIME...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. LEE SIDE TROUGH PUSHES EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT...DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AS
THE AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RECEIVES A LOW LEVEL FETCH FROM THE GULF
AND A STREAM OF MOISTURE ALOFT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISE PWATS APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES...WHICH WOULD BE PUSHING THE
UPPER LIMIT OF LOCAL CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN FROM THE ONSET OF CONVECTION
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS JUNCTURE. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKLY
FORCED/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...LEADING
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER FRIDAY AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTS COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY. LATEST RUNS OF
THE GFS/EC HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ADVERTISE A
QUIET BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND FOR THE SANDHILLS REGION
UNDERNEATH SYNOOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT KLBF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 11Z...THEN FROM 11Z-14Z
5SM BR OVC015...AFTER 14Z...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY
16Z.

AT KVTN...MVFR CEILING TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...THEN 09Z-13Z 3SM
BR SCT009 OVC015. MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 13Z SHOULD BECOME VFR BY
15Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NORTH PLATTE RIVER COMING UP AT LISCO AND LEWELLEN WITH UPSTREAM
RELEASES. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MCCONAUGHY SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD
MOST OF TE UPSTREAM RELEASES. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER WILL BE COMING
UP ONCE AGAIN WITH RAINFALL OVER THE BASIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
THE CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME
WHICH COULD BE HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHER WATER IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME FROM ROSCOE TO
NORTH PLATTE AND THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME AT BRADY. CHECK
WITH LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...POWER








000
FXUS63 KOAX 260805
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING IN AND AROUND THE
CWA THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OPENING UP OVER CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
UPSTREAM LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN WA/SOUTHERN BC.  WEAK 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WERE RISING OVER THE CONUS. WEAK AND NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF 75-85KT WAS NOTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND INTO EASTERN NEB.  WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL
NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...8C+ DEWPOINTS
WERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25-35KT 850MB
FLOW.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST IA/EAST CENTRAL
NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SLOW WIND-DOWN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY.  LIKELY WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST IA...UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TAKE
OVER IN ITS WAKE.  HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HANGING AROUND.

ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT...WHICH SHOULD BE BY AROUND 00Z...QUIETER
WEATHER SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DO NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE LOW...AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE
ON THE MAX TEMPS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW=LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT...SO DID TREND POPS DOWNWARD.  POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY
UNDER CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  DID
INCREASE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE
OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STABILITY...WHICH MAY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THOSE PERIODS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
TROUGH PASSAGES THESE LAST FEW WEEKS...PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND
MURKY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOCUSED AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.  ECMWF
IS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND BOTH ECMWF/GFS BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY
NORTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS...SUSPECT SATURDAY
MIGHT BE A COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD UNDER RETURN FLOW...AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION BUT A CHANCE
WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260805
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING IN AND AROUND THE
CWA THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OPENING UP OVER CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
UPSTREAM LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN WA/SOUTHERN BC.  WEAK 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WERE RISING OVER THE CONUS. WEAK AND NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF 75-85KT WAS NOTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND INTO EASTERN NEB.  WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL
NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...8C+ DEWPOINTS
WERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25-35KT 850MB
FLOW.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST IA/EAST CENTRAL
NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SLOW WIND-DOWN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY.  LIKELY WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST IA...UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TAKE
OVER IN ITS WAKE.  HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HANGING AROUND.

ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT...WHICH SHOULD BE BY AROUND 00Z...QUIETER
WEATHER SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DO NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE LOW...AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE
ON THE MAX TEMPS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW=LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT...SO DID TREND POPS DOWNWARD.  POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY
UNDER CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  DID
INCREASE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE
OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STABILITY...WHICH MAY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THOSE PERIODS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
TROUGH PASSAGES THESE LAST FEW WEEKS...PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND
MURKY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOCUSED AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.  ECMWF
IS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND BOTH ECMWF/GFS BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY
NORTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS...SUSPECT SATURDAY
MIGHT BE A COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD UNDER RETURN FLOW...AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION BUT A CHANCE
WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260805
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING IN AND AROUND THE
CWA THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OPENING UP OVER CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
UPSTREAM LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN WA/SOUTHERN BC.  WEAK 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WERE RISING OVER THE CONUS. WEAK AND NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF 75-85KT WAS NOTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND INTO EASTERN NEB.  WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL
NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...8C+ DEWPOINTS
WERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25-35KT 850MB
FLOW.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST IA/EAST CENTRAL
NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SLOW WIND-DOWN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY.  LIKELY WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST IA...UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TAKE
OVER IN ITS WAKE.  HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HANGING AROUND.

ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT...WHICH SHOULD BE BY AROUND 00Z...QUIETER
WEATHER SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DO NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE LOW...AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE
ON THE MAX TEMPS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW=LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT...SO DID TREND POPS DOWNWARD.  POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY
UNDER CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  DID
INCREASE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE
OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STABILITY...WHICH MAY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THOSE PERIODS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
TROUGH PASSAGES THESE LAST FEW WEEKS...PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND
MURKY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOCUSED AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.  ECMWF
IS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND BOTH ECMWF/GFS BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY
NORTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS...SUSPECT SATURDAY
MIGHT BE A COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD UNDER RETURN FLOW...AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION BUT A CHANCE
WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260805
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING IN AND AROUND THE
CWA THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OPENING UP OVER CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
UPSTREAM LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN WA/SOUTHERN BC.  WEAK 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WERE RISING OVER THE CONUS. WEAK AND NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF 75-85KT WAS NOTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND INTO EASTERN NEB.  WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL
NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...8C+ DEWPOINTS
WERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25-35KT 850MB
FLOW.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST IA/EAST CENTRAL
NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SLOW WIND-DOWN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY.  LIKELY WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST IA...UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TAKE
OVER IN ITS WAKE.  HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HANGING AROUND.

ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT...WHICH SHOULD BE BY AROUND 00Z...QUIETER
WEATHER SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DO NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE LOW...AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE
ON THE MAX TEMPS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW=LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT...SO DID TREND POPS DOWNWARD.  POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY
UNDER CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  DID
INCREASE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE
OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STABILITY...WHICH MAY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THOSE PERIODS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
TROUGH PASSAGES THESE LAST FEW WEEKS...PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND
MURKY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOCUSED AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.  ECMWF
IS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND BOTH ECMWF/GFS BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY
NORTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS...SUSPECT SATURDAY
MIGHT BE A COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD UNDER RETURN FLOW...AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION BUT A CHANCE
WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KGID 260518
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1218 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS THUNDERSTORM RISK THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
WILL TRY TO BRING ENERGY AND SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. FORECAST AREA HAS SEEN MID
CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
AND THUS INSTABILITY. 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT INSTABILITY HELD IN CHECK A BIT
BY THE CLOUDS. MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE JUST THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. TO THE WEST.. INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT IS NOW
SPAWNING A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
SLIDE EAST NORTHEAST.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT SHORT
TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT UNSETTLED IN JUST HOW THINGS
MIGHT PLAY OUT. ONE LIMITING FEATURE SEEMS TO BE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH IS QUITE WEAK. ANOTHER THING
HOLDING STORMS BACK IS ALL THE CLOUD COVER BUT A MORE
ROBUST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ISN/T THAT FAR AWAY.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE TWO AREA
TRY TO WORK EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING... WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE IF INSTABILITY CAN OVERCOME THE WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST/NORTHEAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DO
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
DAY TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SUNSHINE MAY RETURN MORE IN
EARNEST BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND HELP NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE ENTIRE MID
AND LONG TERM PERIOD. IN FACT...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL FOCUS ON WHAT DAYS/NIGHTS IF ANY MAY END UP BEING DRY...AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE PLAINS WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE WEST. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MID TERM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD HINDER OUR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST
EARLY ON. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...WENT
AHEAD AND PULLED POPS FROM THE MORNING HOURS TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
BASED ON NAM SOLUTION EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY...WITH ONLY
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING ANY CHANCE OF RAIN
BEFORE 0Z...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET INTO MORE DETAIL WITH
THIS.

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE LOW AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY IS DECENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 0 TO 6 KM IS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 20 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ACROSS KANSAS.
THUS...SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A LARGE OUTBREAK
IS NOT EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP LIFT ALIVE
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MIGRATES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. AGAIN SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOOKING POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS QUITE HIGH OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF BULK
SHEAR IN PLACE. THE GFS SOLUTION IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KTS...WHILE THE NAM
SEEMS A BIT OUT TO LUNCH WITH POCKETS OF NEARLY 40 TO 50 KTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER THESE DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY REGARDING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE VERSUS 16 TO 18 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY...BELIEVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
SLIGHTLY. BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK. THUS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAY BREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR BUT THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260518
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1218 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS THUNDERSTORM RISK THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
WILL TRY TO BRING ENERGY AND SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. FORECAST AREA HAS SEEN MID
CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
AND THUS INSTABILITY. 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE
FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT INSTABILITY HELD IN CHECK A BIT
BY THE CLOUDS. MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE JUST THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. TO THE WEST.. INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT IS NOW
SPAWNING A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY
SLIDE EAST NORTHEAST.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT SHORT
TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT UNSETTLED IN JUST HOW THINGS
MIGHT PLAY OUT. ONE LIMITING FEATURE SEEMS TO BE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH IS QUITE WEAK. ANOTHER THING
HOLDING STORMS BACK IS ALL THE CLOUD COVER BUT A MORE
ROBUST ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ISN/T THAT FAR AWAY.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A SCATTERING OF STORMS OVER THE TWO AREA
TRY TO WORK EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING... WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE IF INSTABILITY CAN OVERCOME THE WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS EAST/NORTHEAST...CLOSE ENOUGH
TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DO
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE
DAY TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SUNSHINE MAY RETURN MORE IN
EARNEST BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND HELP NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE ENTIRE MID
AND LONG TERM PERIOD. IN FACT...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL FOCUS ON WHAT DAYS/NIGHTS IF ANY MAY END UP BEING DRY...AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE PLAINS WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE WEST. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE MID TERM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD HINDER OUR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST
EARLY ON. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...WENT
AHEAD AND PULLED POPS FROM THE MORNING HOURS TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
BASED ON NAM SOLUTION EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY...WITH ONLY
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING ANY CHANCE OF RAIN
BEFORE 0Z...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET INTO MORE DETAIL WITH
THIS.

LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE LOW AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY IS DECENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 0 TO 6 KM IS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 20 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES ACROSS KANSAS.
THUS...SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A LARGE OUTBREAK
IS NOT EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP LIFT ALIVE
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MIGRATES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. AGAIN SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOOKING POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS QUITE HIGH OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF BULK
SHEAR IN PLACE. THE GFS SOLUTION IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KTS...WHILE THE NAM
SEEMS A BIT OUT TO LUNCH WITH POCKETS OF NEARLY 40 TO 50 KTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER THESE DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY REGARDING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE VERSUS 16 TO 18 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY...BELIEVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
SLIGHTLY. BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK. THUS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAY BREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR BUT THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS AROUND DAY BREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260436
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SURFACE LOW
WAS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER REGION BETWEEN KONL AND KANW...WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST...AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND
ALONG THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE SD
BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY IS
NOW APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...HOWEVER WIND SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THERE ALSO IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING AS
ENERGY MOVES UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS. SLIGHT RISK SEEMS ON TARGET AS
A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVES OVER THE REGION.
FAVORED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXTREMELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE DURING THE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT OVERALL TORNADO
THREAT SEEMS LOW. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 50 TO 70 PERCENT POPS
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

GOOD MODELS CONSENSUS THAT LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS WEEK WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF
THE SWRN STATES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.

ON TUESDAY...LINGERING PCPN ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CWA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTN HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK
THE REGION WITH PARTLY  CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE GOING FCST AS THE MAIN
FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS RELATIVELY SLOW UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF CROSSING THE CNTRL CONUS ALONG WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT DRIVING DEEP TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW PINNING
DOWN ANY MEANINGFUL POP DETAILS...OPT TO JUST MAINTAIN POPS THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THIS WEEK.

REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S. RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS ON TAP THEN NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION BUT A CHANCE
WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260436
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SURFACE LOW
WAS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER REGION BETWEEN KONL AND KANW...WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST...AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND
ALONG THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE SD
BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY IS
NOW APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...HOWEVER WIND SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THERE ALSO IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING AS
ENERGY MOVES UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS. SLIGHT RISK SEEMS ON TARGET AS
A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVES OVER THE REGION.
FAVORED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXTREMELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE DURING THE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT OVERALL TORNADO
THREAT SEEMS LOW. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 50 TO 70 PERCENT POPS
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

GOOD MODELS CONSENSUS THAT LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS WEEK WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF
THE SWRN STATES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.

ON TUESDAY...LINGERING PCPN ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CWA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTN HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK
THE REGION WITH PARTLY  CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE GOING FCST AS THE MAIN
FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS RELATIVELY SLOW UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF CROSSING THE CNTRL CONUS ALONG WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT DRIVING DEEP TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW PINNING
DOWN ANY MEANINGFUL POP DETAILS...OPT TO JUST MAINTAIN POPS THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THIS WEEK.

REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S. RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS ON TAP THEN NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION BUT A CHANCE
WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260436
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SURFACE LOW
WAS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER REGION BETWEEN KONL AND KANW...WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST...AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND
ALONG THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE SD
BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY IS
NOW APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...HOWEVER WIND SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THERE ALSO IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING AS
ENERGY MOVES UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS. SLIGHT RISK SEEMS ON TARGET AS
A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVES OVER THE REGION.
FAVORED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXTREMELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE DURING THE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT OVERALL TORNADO
THREAT SEEMS LOW. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 50 TO 70 PERCENT POPS
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

GOOD MODELS CONSENSUS THAT LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS WEEK WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF
THE SWRN STATES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.

ON TUESDAY...LINGERING PCPN ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CWA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTN HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK
THE REGION WITH PARTLY  CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE GOING FCST AS THE MAIN
FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS RELATIVELY SLOW UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF CROSSING THE CNTRL CONUS ALONG WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT DRIVING DEEP TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW PINNING
DOWN ANY MEANINGFUL POP DETAILS...OPT TO JUST MAINTAIN POPS THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THIS WEEK.

REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S. RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS ON TAP THEN NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION BUT A CHANCE
WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260436
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SURFACE LOW
WAS ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER REGION BETWEEN KONL AND KANW...WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST...AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND
ALONG THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE SD
BORDER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT TO
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY IS
NOW APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OF CAPE...HOWEVER WIND SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THERE ALSO IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING AS
ENERGY MOVES UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS. SLIGHT RISK SEEMS ON TARGET AS
A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVES OVER THE REGION.
FAVORED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXTREMELY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE DURING THE EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT OVERALL TORNADO
THREAT SEEMS LOW. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 50 TO 70 PERCENT POPS
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

GOOD MODELS CONSENSUS THAT LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS WEEK WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF
THE SWRN STATES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.

ON TUESDAY...LINGERING PCPN ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CWA WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTN HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL FINALLY BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS BACK
THE REGION WITH PARTLY  CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE GOING FCST AS THE MAIN
FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS RELATIVELY SLOW UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF CROSSING THE CNTRL CONUS ALONG WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT DRIVING DEEP TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW PINNING
DOWN ANY MEANINGFUL POP DETAILS...OPT TO JUST MAINTAIN POPS THRU THE
MAJORITY OF THIS WEEK.

REGARDING TEMPS...HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S. RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS ON TAP THEN NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION BUT A CHANCE
WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 260431
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
NORTHWEST DEFORMATION ZONE PRODUCING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW IS STRETCHED ALONG THE
EASTERN CWA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ALSO SEEING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH WITH COLD AIR ALOFT CREATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

BUSY AFTERNOON WITH RECENT RAINS CAUSING BOTH THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER
UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY AND THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER TO SEE A
TREND UPWARD IN FLOWS...SEE HYDRO SECTION.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST...AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTIVITY INCREASES. STILL WILL SEE SOME ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS IN THE WRAP AROUND. BL MOISTURE REMAINS RICH AND SOME
FOG OR STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

BY TOMORROW THE SFC HIGH WILL LIMIT PRECIP AS IT BRING SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION. THE LOWER LEVELS MAY BE DRYING...BUT RICH ELEVATED MOISTURE
IS RETAINED AS PWATS STILL 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHOWERS WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS WEAK SO PRIMARILY WILL BE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACCORDING TO THE NAM12 THIS MORNING...A NARROW PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ENHANCE THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY. WITH A
RESULTING 875MB BASED LIFTED INDEX OF -5C TO -8C IN THAT
GRADIENT...FAIRLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AT OR
ABOVE 0.75 INCH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND OVER THE SANDHILLS. USING A BLEND OF
MODELS...PRECIPITATION TOTALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 0..60-1.15 INCH. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALSO INCLUDE
3000-3500J/KG SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BUT IT IS RELEASED
QUICKLY AS STORMS DEVELOP. AFTER THE STORMS DEVELOP...THE HODOGRAPH
APPEARS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION BUT THE BULK SHEAR
WILL PROBABLY TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A PERSISTENT UPDRAFT. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT...AT THIS TIME...THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS OR VERY LARGE HAIL. THE UPDRAFTS COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. THE GFS40 SOLUTION IS
INDICATING A SIMILAR SITUATION BUT DEVELOPING THREE TO SIX HOURS
LATER.

A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT COMES ACROSS NEBRASKA FRIDAY. MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE FRONT WILL STOP THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE 300K AND 305K ISENTROPIC
SURFACES SHOWS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A LARGE PART OF NEBRASKA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TRY TO PIN THAT DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT KLBF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST UNTIL 11Z...THEN FROM 11Z-14Z
5SM BR OVC015...AFTER 14Z...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY
16Z.

AT KVTN...MVFR CEILING TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...THEN 09Z-13Z 3SM
BR SCT009 OVC015. MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 13Z SHOULD BECOME VFR BY
15Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RECENT VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...EASTERN WYOMING
AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA IS COMBINING WITH HIGH WATER FROM ABOVE
NORMAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT TO CREATE ELEVATED FLOWS ON THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY...THE SOUTH PLATTE
RIVER AND THE PLATTE RIVER.

FOR THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER...INCREASED RELEASED FROM WYOMING
RESERVOIRS DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND EXPECTED SNOW MELT
WILL RESULT IN AN SLOW INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE BELOW THE
RECORD FLOODING SEEM IN 2011. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...SOME WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RELEASES UPSTREAM AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AND PLATTE RIVER...THE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS
CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN THE RIVER. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER CALL FOR A SECOND CREST VERY
NEAR THE CREST WHICH OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MONTH. UNFORTUNATELY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN EVEN
HIGHER FLOWS. SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...MASEK








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities