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000
FXUS63 KGID 262330
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
530 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
UPPER AIR/SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AS
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING LINGERS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. OUTSIDE OF SOME CU AFFECTING FAR
NE/SW FRINGES OF THE CWA...SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE CWA IS HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NC CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
HAS KEPT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH...AND THEY HAVE BEEN ON THE GUSTY
SIDE...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS PEAKING
AROUND 25 MPH. AS EXPECTED...TEMPS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 3 PM TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TONIGHT/TOMORROW...HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE MODELS...STILL SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHING S/SE THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN BARELY OFF TO THE W/SW OF THE CWA AS WE
GET INTO THE EARLY MORNING/DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...SO HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY.

EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH THAT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TO THE N/NW EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTH. BY MIDNIGHT MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STARTING TO
MOVE IN THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA...AND AT 12Z IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE/IA BORDER. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE IF NOT
COMPLETELY CALM...ESP ACROSS NRN/ERN PORTION...AND WITH NOT A LOT
OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ARE EXPECTED. THE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM DROPPING BELOW 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. FURTHER
SW...MODELS SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS...AND
WITH NOT SITTING WITH THE CALM WINDS HAVE THEIR LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH OR
EVEN COME TO AN END.

NOT EXPECTING A BIG BREAK BECAUSE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE STARTS
MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION AND THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WARM UP. THE GFS IS MUCH
WARMER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. THEN LATER
MONDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY...BUT
PUT IN A LITTLE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THEN
BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR COMES BACK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AGAIN AND SO THERE COULD BE
SOME RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH SOME DIFFERENCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THROUGH AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE ECMWF
HAS THE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE GFS MOVES THE PRECIPITATION IN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS...HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BUT STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. CLODUS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY...AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 262330
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
530 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
UPPER AIR/SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AS
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING LINGERS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. OUTSIDE OF SOME CU AFFECTING FAR
NE/SW FRINGES OF THE CWA...SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE CWA IS HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NC CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
HAS KEPT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH...AND THEY HAVE BEEN ON THE GUSTY
SIDE...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS PEAKING
AROUND 25 MPH. AS EXPECTED...TEMPS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 3 PM TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TONIGHT/TOMORROW...HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE MODELS...STILL SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHING S/SE THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN BARELY OFF TO THE W/SW OF THE CWA AS WE
GET INTO THE EARLY MORNING/DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...SO HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY.

EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH THAT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TO THE N/NW EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTH. BY MIDNIGHT MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STARTING TO
MOVE IN THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA...AND AT 12Z IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE/IA BORDER. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE IF NOT
COMPLETELY CALM...ESP ACROSS NRN/ERN PORTION...AND WITH NOT A LOT
OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ARE EXPECTED. THE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM DROPPING BELOW 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. FURTHER
SW...MODELS SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS...AND
WITH NOT SITTING WITH THE CALM WINDS HAVE THEIR LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH OR
EVEN COME TO AN END.

NOT EXPECTING A BIG BREAK BECAUSE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE STARTS
MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION AND THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WARM UP. THE GFS IS MUCH
WARMER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. THEN LATER
MONDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY...BUT
PUT IN A LITTLE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THEN
BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR COMES BACK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AGAIN AND SO THERE COULD BE
SOME RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH SOME DIFFERENCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THROUGH AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE ECMWF
HAS THE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE GFS MOVES THE PRECIPITATION IN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS...HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BUT STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. CLODUS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY...AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KOAX 262320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THEN BECOME
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THEN BECOME
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THEN BECOME
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 262320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THEN BECOME
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLBF 262319 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
519 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND FROM NORTH
TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL BE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM WESTERN TEXAS
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
WILL BE WARMEST WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST -20C 850MB AIR WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL WILL REMAIN AT -15C TO -18C SO
EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THESE AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL OBSERVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO A STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. MOST OF THIS AREA
SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP BELOW ZERO. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT WIND
CHILLS...THOUGH EVEN A FEW KTS OF WIND WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY HAVE SEEN A FEW FLURRIES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WEST OF A
LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO IMPERIAL. THINK THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE SMALL THOUGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA...WITH INCREASING WINDS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DAYTIME
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO NEAR
800MB IN SOME LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD BE THE MAXIMUM MIXING
HEIGHT WITH MANY AREAS NOT MIXING QUITE TO THAT LEVEL. THERE WILL BE
WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING IN THOSE LEVELS WITH MANY PLACES SEEING
RISES IN TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 8 DEGREES. SO DO EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 20S
SO REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...MIDDLE PERIODS /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE CENTER OF
500HPA LOW PRESSURE NEAR KLAX BY 00Z MONDAY. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE TROUGH RESULTS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

DID NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES MUCH EXCEPT TRENDED A LITTLE BIT TOWARD
MAV GUIDANCE. KEPT FRIDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS...NAM...AND EURO PLACE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A
250HPA JET ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
WERE QUITE MESSY. THE NAM KEEPS THE AREA MAINLY DRY WHEREAS THE EURO
AND GFS BRING BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. OVERALL...TRENDED POPS DOWN A LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AT KLBF...NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 800HPA EXCEPT
BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY HYDROMETEORS FORMED IN THE MOIST MID
LAYER WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. ON THE
CONTRARY...GFS BRINGS THE MOIST LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE EARLY
SATURDAY AND KEEPS THE COLUMN SATURATED FOR A LONGER PERIOD INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. CANNOT IGNORE THE STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SIGNAL
IN THE GFS...MOST EVIDENT AT 295K...AND MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REMOVED POPS EXCEPT FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY SUNDAY 12Z AS THE GFS DRIES THE
COLUMN CONSIDERABLY.

...EXTENDED PERIOD /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE AXIS DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 00Z THURSDAY. ONE 250HPA JET STREAK FORMS
SUNDAY EVENING AND STRETCHES ROUGHLY FROM BROKEN BOW TO
DETROIT...PLACING WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE...QUICKLY SATURATING
THE COLUMN MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
MONDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS BRINGS ABOVE
FREEZING 850HPA TEMPS NORTH TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THE EURO IS DELAYED ABOUT 12 HOURS AND KEEPS 850HPA TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COOLER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAX SURFACE TEMPS
BUMPED UP A LITTLE MONDAY WITH MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 30S NORTH.
KEPT PTYPE AS SNOW FOR NOW...BUT A PERIOD OF FZRA AND EVENTUALLY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE SECOND 250HPA JET STREAK ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO STAY JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IF PTYPE REMAINS ALL SNOW...NOT TOO CONCERNED FOR
ACCUMULATION. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIFT...BUT THE
OVERALL TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS TOO WARM AND THE DGZ DOES NOT STAY
SATURATED FOR LONG. TUESDAY...BOTH MODELS BRING A QUICK COOLDOWN AT
850HPA AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND AM MORE CONFIDENT WITH
LIGHT SNOW BEING THE MAIN PTYPE. THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT.
THIS TIME AROUND...MUCH COLDER AIR IS PRESENT AND THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...PLACING THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
ABOVE IT. AGAIN...EXPECTING ANY SNOW TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH
RELATIVELY LOW RATIOS. NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES THURSDAY...BRINGING A
LULL IN THE SNOW BUT CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 61 OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BANK OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
KONL WILL TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP
AND NAM APPEAR TO MAINTAIN THESE CIGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY
AND THEN MIX THEM OUT.

A BANK OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS ERN COLO IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 262319 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
519 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND FROM NORTH
TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL BE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM WESTERN TEXAS
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
WILL BE WARMEST WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST -20C 850MB AIR WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL WILL REMAIN AT -15C TO -18C SO
EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THESE AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL OBSERVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO A STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. MOST OF THIS AREA
SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP BELOW ZERO. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT WIND
CHILLS...THOUGH EVEN A FEW KTS OF WIND WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY HAVE SEEN A FEW FLURRIES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WEST OF A
LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO IMPERIAL. THINK THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE SMALL THOUGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA...WITH INCREASING WINDS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DAYTIME
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO NEAR
800MB IN SOME LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD BE THE MAXIMUM MIXING
HEIGHT WITH MANY AREAS NOT MIXING QUITE TO THAT LEVEL. THERE WILL BE
WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING IN THOSE LEVELS WITH MANY PLACES SEEING
RISES IN TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 8 DEGREES. SO DO EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 20S
SO REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...MIDDLE PERIODS /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE CENTER OF
500HPA LOW PRESSURE NEAR KLAX BY 00Z MONDAY. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE TROUGH RESULTS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

DID NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES MUCH EXCEPT TRENDED A LITTLE BIT TOWARD
MAV GUIDANCE. KEPT FRIDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS...NAM...AND EURO PLACE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A
250HPA JET ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
WERE QUITE MESSY. THE NAM KEEPS THE AREA MAINLY DRY WHEREAS THE EURO
AND GFS BRING BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. OVERALL...TRENDED POPS DOWN A LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AT KLBF...NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 800HPA EXCEPT
BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY HYDROMETEORS FORMED IN THE MOIST MID
LAYER WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. ON THE
CONTRARY...GFS BRINGS THE MOIST LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE EARLY
SATURDAY AND KEEPS THE COLUMN SATURATED FOR A LONGER PERIOD INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. CANNOT IGNORE THE STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SIGNAL
IN THE GFS...MOST EVIDENT AT 295K...AND MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REMOVED POPS EXCEPT FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY SUNDAY 12Z AS THE GFS DRIES THE
COLUMN CONSIDERABLY.

...EXTENDED PERIOD /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE AXIS DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 00Z THURSDAY. ONE 250HPA JET STREAK FORMS
SUNDAY EVENING AND STRETCHES ROUGHLY FROM BROKEN BOW TO
DETROIT...PLACING WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE...QUICKLY SATURATING
THE COLUMN MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
MONDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS BRINGS ABOVE
FREEZING 850HPA TEMPS NORTH TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THE EURO IS DELAYED ABOUT 12 HOURS AND KEEPS 850HPA TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COOLER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAX SURFACE TEMPS
BUMPED UP A LITTLE MONDAY WITH MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 30S NORTH.
KEPT PTYPE AS SNOW FOR NOW...BUT A PERIOD OF FZRA AND EVENTUALLY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE SECOND 250HPA JET STREAK ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO STAY JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IF PTYPE REMAINS ALL SNOW...NOT TOO CONCERNED FOR
ACCUMULATION. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIFT...BUT THE
OVERALL TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS TOO WARM AND THE DGZ DOES NOT STAY
SATURATED FOR LONG. TUESDAY...BOTH MODELS BRING A QUICK COOLDOWN AT
850HPA AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND AM MORE CONFIDENT WITH
LIGHT SNOW BEING THE MAIN PTYPE. THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT.
THIS TIME AROUND...MUCH COLDER AIR IS PRESENT AND THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...PLACING THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
ABOVE IT. AGAIN...EXPECTING ANY SNOW TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH
RELATIVELY LOW RATIOS. NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES THURSDAY...BRINGING A
LULL IN THE SNOW BUT CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 61 OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BANK OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
KONL WILL TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP
AND NAM APPEAR TO MAINTAIN THESE CIGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY
AND THEN MIX THEM OUT.

A BANK OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS ERN COLO IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 262319 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
519 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND FROM NORTH
TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL BE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM WESTERN TEXAS
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
WILL BE WARMEST WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST -20C 850MB AIR WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL WILL REMAIN AT -15C TO -18C SO
EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THESE AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL OBSERVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO A STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. MOST OF THIS AREA
SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP BELOW ZERO. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT WIND
CHILLS...THOUGH EVEN A FEW KTS OF WIND WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY HAVE SEEN A FEW FLURRIES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WEST OF A
LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO IMPERIAL. THINK THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE SMALL THOUGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA...WITH INCREASING WINDS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DAYTIME
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO NEAR
800MB IN SOME LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD BE THE MAXIMUM MIXING
HEIGHT WITH MANY AREAS NOT MIXING QUITE TO THAT LEVEL. THERE WILL BE
WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING IN THOSE LEVELS WITH MANY PLACES SEEING
RISES IN TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 8 DEGREES. SO DO EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 20S
SO REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...MIDDLE PERIODS /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE CENTER OF
500HPA LOW PRESSURE NEAR KLAX BY 00Z MONDAY. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE TROUGH RESULTS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

DID NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES MUCH EXCEPT TRENDED A LITTLE BIT TOWARD
MAV GUIDANCE. KEPT FRIDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS...NAM...AND EURO PLACE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A
250HPA JET ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
WERE QUITE MESSY. THE NAM KEEPS THE AREA MAINLY DRY WHEREAS THE EURO
AND GFS BRING BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. OVERALL...TRENDED POPS DOWN A LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AT KLBF...NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 800HPA EXCEPT
BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY HYDROMETEORS FORMED IN THE MOIST MID
LAYER WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. ON THE
CONTRARY...GFS BRINGS THE MOIST LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE EARLY
SATURDAY AND KEEPS THE COLUMN SATURATED FOR A LONGER PERIOD INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. CANNOT IGNORE THE STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SIGNAL
IN THE GFS...MOST EVIDENT AT 295K...AND MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REMOVED POPS EXCEPT FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY SUNDAY 12Z AS THE GFS DRIES THE
COLUMN CONSIDERABLY.

...EXTENDED PERIOD /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE AXIS DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 00Z THURSDAY. ONE 250HPA JET STREAK FORMS
SUNDAY EVENING AND STRETCHES ROUGHLY FROM BROKEN BOW TO
DETROIT...PLACING WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE...QUICKLY SATURATING
THE COLUMN MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
MONDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS BRINGS ABOVE
FREEZING 850HPA TEMPS NORTH TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THE EURO IS DELAYED ABOUT 12 HOURS AND KEEPS 850HPA TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COOLER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAX SURFACE TEMPS
BUMPED UP A LITTLE MONDAY WITH MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 30S NORTH.
KEPT PTYPE AS SNOW FOR NOW...BUT A PERIOD OF FZRA AND EVENTUALLY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE SECOND 250HPA JET STREAK ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO STAY JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IF PTYPE REMAINS ALL SNOW...NOT TOO CONCERNED FOR
ACCUMULATION. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIFT...BUT THE
OVERALL TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS TOO WARM AND THE DGZ DOES NOT STAY
SATURATED FOR LONG. TUESDAY...BOTH MODELS BRING A QUICK COOLDOWN AT
850HPA AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND AM MORE CONFIDENT WITH
LIGHT SNOW BEING THE MAIN PTYPE. THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT.
THIS TIME AROUND...MUCH COLDER AIR IS PRESENT AND THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...PLACING THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
ABOVE IT. AGAIN...EXPECTING ANY SNOW TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH
RELATIVELY LOW RATIOS. NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES THURSDAY...BRINGING A
LULL IN THE SNOW BUT CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 61 OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BANK OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
KONL WILL TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP
AND NAM APPEAR TO MAINTAIN THESE CIGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY
AND THEN MIX THEM OUT.

A BANK OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS ERN COLO IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 262319 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
519 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND FROM NORTH
TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL BE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM WESTERN TEXAS
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
WILL BE WARMEST WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST -20C 850MB AIR WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL WILL REMAIN AT -15C TO -18C SO
EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THESE AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL OBSERVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO A STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. MOST OF THIS AREA
SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP BELOW ZERO. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT WIND
CHILLS...THOUGH EVEN A FEW KTS OF WIND WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY HAVE SEEN A FEW FLURRIES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WEST OF A
LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO IMPERIAL. THINK THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE SMALL THOUGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA...WITH INCREASING WINDS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DAYTIME
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO NEAR
800MB IN SOME LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD BE THE MAXIMUM MIXING
HEIGHT WITH MANY AREAS NOT MIXING QUITE TO THAT LEVEL. THERE WILL BE
WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING IN THOSE LEVELS WITH MANY PLACES SEEING
RISES IN TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 8 DEGREES. SO DO EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 20S
SO REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...MIDDLE PERIODS /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE CENTER OF
500HPA LOW PRESSURE NEAR KLAX BY 00Z MONDAY. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE TROUGH RESULTS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

DID NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES MUCH EXCEPT TRENDED A LITTLE BIT TOWARD
MAV GUIDANCE. KEPT FRIDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS...NAM...AND EURO PLACE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A
250HPA JET ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
WERE QUITE MESSY. THE NAM KEEPS THE AREA MAINLY DRY WHEREAS THE EURO
AND GFS BRING BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. OVERALL...TRENDED POPS DOWN A LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AT KLBF...NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 800HPA EXCEPT
BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY HYDROMETEORS FORMED IN THE MOIST MID
LAYER WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. ON THE
CONTRARY...GFS BRINGS THE MOIST LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE EARLY
SATURDAY AND KEEPS THE COLUMN SATURATED FOR A LONGER PERIOD INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. CANNOT IGNORE THE STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SIGNAL
IN THE GFS...MOST EVIDENT AT 295K...AND MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REMOVED POPS EXCEPT FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY SUNDAY 12Z AS THE GFS DRIES THE
COLUMN CONSIDERABLY.

...EXTENDED PERIOD /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE AXIS DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 00Z THURSDAY. ONE 250HPA JET STREAK FORMS
SUNDAY EVENING AND STRETCHES ROUGHLY FROM BROKEN BOW TO
DETROIT...PLACING WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE...QUICKLY SATURATING
THE COLUMN MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
MONDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS BRINGS ABOVE
FREEZING 850HPA TEMPS NORTH TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THE EURO IS DELAYED ABOUT 12 HOURS AND KEEPS 850HPA TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COOLER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAX SURFACE TEMPS
BUMPED UP A LITTLE MONDAY WITH MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 30S NORTH.
KEPT PTYPE AS SNOW FOR NOW...BUT A PERIOD OF FZRA AND EVENTUALLY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE SECOND 250HPA JET STREAK ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO STAY JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IF PTYPE REMAINS ALL SNOW...NOT TOO CONCERNED FOR
ACCUMULATION. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIFT...BUT THE
OVERALL TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS TOO WARM AND THE DGZ DOES NOT STAY
SATURATED FOR LONG. TUESDAY...BOTH MODELS BRING A QUICK COOLDOWN AT
850HPA AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND AM MORE CONFIDENT WITH
LIGHT SNOW BEING THE MAIN PTYPE. THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT.
THIS TIME AROUND...MUCH COLDER AIR IS PRESENT AND THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...PLACING THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
ABOVE IT. AGAIN...EXPECTING ANY SNOW TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH
RELATIVELY LOW RATIOS. NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES THURSDAY...BRINGING A
LULL IN THE SNOW BUT CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 61 OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BANK OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
KONL WILL TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP
AND NAM APPEAR TO MAINTAIN THESE CIGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY
AND THEN MIX THEM OUT.

A BANK OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS ERN COLO IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KGID 262137
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
337 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
UPPER AIR/SATELLITE DATA SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AS
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING LINGERS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. OUTSIDE OF SOME CU AFFECTING FAR
NE/SW FRINGES OF THE CWA...SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE CWA IS HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE NC CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS
HAS KEPT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH...AND THEY HAVE BEEN ON THE GUSTY
SIDE...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS PEAKING
AROUND 25 MPH. AS EXPECTED...TEMPS HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 3 PM TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TONIGHT/TOMORROW...HASNT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE MODELS...STILL SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHING S/SE THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN BARELY OFF TO THE W/SW OF THE CWA AS WE
GET INTO THE EARLY MORNING/DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...SO HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY.

EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH THAT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TO THE N/NW EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTH. BY MIDNIGHT MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH STARTING TO
MOVE IN THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA...AND AT 12Z IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE/IA BORDER. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE IF NOT
COMPLETELY CALM...ESP ACROSS NRN/ERN PORTION...AND WITH NOT A LOT
OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ARE EXPECTED. THE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM DROPPING BELOW 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. FURTHER
SW...MODELS SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS...AND
WITH NOT SITTING WITH THE CALM WINDS HAVE THEIR LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH OR
EVEN COME TO AN END.

NOT EXPECTING A BIG BREAK BECAUSE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE STARTS
MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION AND THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WARM UP. THE GFS IS MUCH
WARMER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. THEN LATER
MONDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY...BUT
PUT IN A LITTLE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...THEN
BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR COMES BACK IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AGAIN AND SO THERE COULD BE
SOME RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH SOME DIFFERENCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THROUGH AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE ECMWF
HAS THE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE GFS MOVES THE PRECIPITATION IN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS...HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BUT STILL
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CU TRYING TO
DRIFT SOUTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE A NOTABLE IMPACT AT
EITHER TERMINAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING WINDS NORTHERLY AND AT
TIMES GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
E/SE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KLBF 262136
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND FROM NORTH
TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL BE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM WESTERN TEXAS
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
WILL BE WARMEST WHERE THE CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST -20C 850MB AIR WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL WILL REMAIN AT -15C TO -18C SO
EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THESE AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL OBSERVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO A STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. MOST OF THIS AREA
SHOULD SEE LOWS DROP BELOW ZERO. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT WIND
CHILLS...THOUGH EVEN A FEW KTS OF WIND WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY HAVE SEEN A FEW FLURRIES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WEST OF A
LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO IMPERIAL. THINK THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE SMALL THOUGH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA...WITH INCREASING WINDS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DAYTIME
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO NEAR
800MB IN SOME LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THAT SHOULD BE THE MAXIMUM MIXING
HEIGHT WITH MANY AREAS NOT MIXING QUITE TO THAT LEVEL. THERE WILL BE
WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING IN THOSE LEVELS WITH MANY PLACES SEEING
RISES IN TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 8 DEGREES. SO DO EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 20S
SO REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...MIDDLE PERIODS /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE CENTER OF
500HPA LOW PRESSURE NEAR KLAX BY 00Z MONDAY. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE TROUGH RESULTS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

DID NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES MUCH EXCEPT TRENDED A LITTLE BIT TOWARD
MAV GUIDANCE. KEPT FRIDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS...NAM...AND EURO PLACE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A
250HPA JET ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION SIGNALS
WERE QUITE MESSY. THE NAM KEEPS THE AREA MAINLY DRY WHEREAS THE EURO
AND GFS BRING BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. OVERALL...TRENDED POPS DOWN A LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. AT KLBF...NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 800HPA EXCEPT
BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY HYDROMETEORS FORMED IN THE MOIST MID
LAYER WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. ON THE
CONTRARY...GFS BRINGS THE MOIST LAYER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE EARLY
SATURDAY AND KEEPS THE COLUMN SATURATED FOR A LONGER PERIOD INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. CANNOT IGNORE THE STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SIGNAL
IN THE GFS...MOST EVIDENT AT 295K...AND MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. REMOVED POPS EXCEPT FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY SUNDAY 12Z AS THE GFS DRIES THE
COLUMN CONSIDERABLY.

...EXTENDED PERIOD /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE AXIS DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 00Z THURSDAY. ONE 250HPA JET STREAK FORMS
SUNDAY EVENING AND STRETCHES ROUGHLY FROM BROKEN BOW TO
DETROIT...PLACING WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE...QUICKLY SATURATING
THE COLUMN MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
MONDAY AS WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS BRINGS ABOVE
FREEZING 850HPA TEMPS NORTH TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THE EURO IS DELAYED ABOUT 12 HOURS AND KEEPS 850HPA TEMPS
ABOUT 5C COOLER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAX SURFACE TEMPS
BUMPED UP A LITTLE MONDAY WITH MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 30S NORTH.
KEPT PTYPE AS SNOW FOR NOW...BUT A PERIOD OF FZRA AND EVENTUALLY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE SECOND 250HPA JET STREAK ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE BEST ENERGY APPEARS TO STAY JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IF PTYPE REMAINS ALL SNOW...NOT TOO CONCERNED FOR
ACCUMULATION. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIFT...BUT THE
OVERALL TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS TOO WARM AND THE DGZ DOES NOT STAY
SATURATED FOR LONG. TUESDAY...BOTH MODELS BRING A QUICK COOLDOWN AT
850HPA AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND AM MORE CONFIDENT WITH
LIGHT SNOW BEING THE MAIN PTYPE. THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT.
THIS TIME AROUND...MUCH COLDER AIR IS PRESENT AND THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...PLACING THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
ABOVE IT. AGAIN...EXPECTING ANY SNOW TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH
RELATIVELY LOW RATIOS. NORTHWEST FLOW RESUMES THURSDAY...BRINGING A
LULL IN THE SNOW BUT CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND
DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 27.12Z. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY VFR AS THE LOW
LEVELS STAY DRY. DO EXPECT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BEGIN TO MIX BY
LATE MORNING SO COULD SEE INCREASING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WEST OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KOAX 262040
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
240 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BRISK NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z WITH A
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL020
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT COULD BRIEFLY GO BROKEN FOR A TIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 262040
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
240 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CU
FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES...BUT NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A WEAK RETURN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS BUT DRY.

A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
BEGIN TO EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. STILL THINKING WE`LL SEE
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY AND LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO BE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WITH
POPS DIMINISHING AS YOU HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE NE/SD BORDER
REGION...IN FACT THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR
NORTH. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WITH THIS EVENT EITHER.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG I80...AND 2 TO 4
INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. SNOW TAPERS OFF AND ENDS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TIMING OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF TILL
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD RESULT IN MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
THE OVERALL TIMING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THUS...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING
OF PRECIP...PRECIP TYPE...AND TRANSITION BACK TO COLD CANADIAN AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BRISK NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z WITH A
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL020
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT COULD BRIEFLY GO BROKEN FOR A TIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 261849
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NERN MT INTO ERN
NEBR...CNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS RESULTING IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
RANGING FROM 0 AT ONL TO 15 AT OGA AND 16 AT IML WHERE OVERCAST
SKIES PERSIST. THERE REMAINS A FEW FLURRIES IN PARTS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...EVEN THE FLURRIES ARE BECOMING LESS COMMON.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE PRIOR FORECAST CURVE AND AS
LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED ALREADY BY LATE
MORNING...THINKING ADDITIONAL WARMING POTENTIAL TODAY MAY BE
LIMITED. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARMING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT EVEN WITH THE GOOD MIXING...DON/T THINK
IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RISE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE NEEDED 5-10
DEGREES TO REACH THE PRIOR FORECAST HIGHS. SO HAVE DROPPED HIGHS
BY A FEW DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH A FEW 20S OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED AT KSNY AND
WITH SOME OMEGA BEING INDICTATED INTO THE PANHANDLE WHERE THERE
WAS A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.
DON/T THINK ANY SNOW WOULD AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT DID ADD FLURRIES
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...H85 TEMPS
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR -21C AT ONL TO ABOUT -12C AT OGA AND IML.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY FROM 13 AT ONL TO 20 AT LBF AND OGA AND 21 AT
IML. THESE HIGHS ARE FROM 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WENT  NEAR
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
NEAR AND EAST OF A GORDON THROUGH NORTH PLATTE LINE TODAY...TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
ABOUT THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING NORTH PLATTE AND
ARTHUR WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES NEAR 7 BELOW ARE FORECAST NEAR AND EAST OF VALENTINE
THROUGH BROKEN BOW. THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRESENCE OF
SERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE SERN
PNHDL INTO SWRN NEBR. WENT ABOVE BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHEAST...MAINLY
DICTATED BY THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ALL AREAS AND THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST INCLUDING
WESTERN DEUEL AND WESTERN CHASE COUNTY AS H7 AND H5 TROUGHS KICK
EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW RECYCLES
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
RAISING LOWS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES/PV ANOMALIES WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND DIVE
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THE TROUGH IS RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES HELPING TO DIG THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE
TROUGH SENDS SEVERAL STRONGER JET SEGMENTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS INSTEAD OF EMERGING ALL AT ONCE. AS THESE JET SEGMENTS MOVE
THROUGH...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED FOR A TIME...AND THEN WANE UNTIL
THE NEXT SURGE. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION/SNOW ACROSS
KANSAS AND COLORADO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN
QPF...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AREA OF KANSAS.
OVERALL THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SNOW CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. AT THIS TIME THINKING 2 TO 4
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MAYBE AN INCH OR SO IN THE I-80
CORRIDOR...AND LESS THAN AN INCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS EVENT
IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD MEAN
MORE SNOW FOR OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...ARCTIC AIR WILL NEVER FULLY SCOUR OUT OF
THE AREA THOUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODIFY SOMEWHAT HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S. BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
IS CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND
DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 27.12Z. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY VFR AS THE LOW
LEVELS STAY DRY. DO EXPECT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BEGIN TO MIX BY
LATE MORNING SO COULD SEE INCREASING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WEST OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 261849
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1249 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NERN MT INTO ERN
NEBR...CNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS RESULTING IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
RANGING FROM 0 AT ONL TO 15 AT OGA AND 16 AT IML WHERE OVERCAST
SKIES PERSIST. THERE REMAINS A FEW FLURRIES IN PARTS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...EVEN THE FLURRIES ARE BECOMING LESS COMMON.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE PRIOR FORECAST CURVE AND AS
LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED ALREADY BY LATE
MORNING...THINKING ADDITIONAL WARMING POTENTIAL TODAY MAY BE
LIMITED. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARMING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT EVEN WITH THE GOOD MIXING...DON/T THINK
IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RISE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE NEEDED 5-10
DEGREES TO REACH THE PRIOR FORECAST HIGHS. SO HAVE DROPPED HIGHS
BY A FEW DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH A FEW 20S OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...LIGHT SNOW WAS BEING REPORTED AT KSNY AND
WITH SOME OMEGA BEING INDICTATED INTO THE PANHANDLE WHERE THERE
WAS A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.
DON/T THINK ANY SNOW WOULD AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT DID ADD FLURRIES
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...H85 TEMPS
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR -21C AT ONL TO ABOUT -12C AT OGA AND IML.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY FROM 13 AT ONL TO 20 AT LBF AND OGA AND 21 AT
IML. THESE HIGHS ARE FROM 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WENT  NEAR
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
NEAR AND EAST OF A GORDON THROUGH NORTH PLATTE LINE TODAY...TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
ABOUT THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING NORTH PLATTE AND
ARTHUR WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES NEAR 7 BELOW ARE FORECAST NEAR AND EAST OF VALENTINE
THROUGH BROKEN BOW. THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRESENCE OF
SERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE SERN
PNHDL INTO SWRN NEBR. WENT ABOVE BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHEAST...MAINLY
DICTATED BY THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ALL AREAS AND THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST INCLUDING
WESTERN DEUEL AND WESTERN CHASE COUNTY AS H7 AND H5 TROUGHS KICK
EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW RECYCLES
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
RAISING LOWS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES/PV ANOMALIES WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND DIVE
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THE TROUGH IS RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES HELPING TO DIG THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE
TROUGH SENDS SEVERAL STRONGER JET SEGMENTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS INSTEAD OF EMERGING ALL AT ONCE. AS THESE JET SEGMENTS MOVE
THROUGH...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED FOR A TIME...AND THEN WANE UNTIL
THE NEXT SURGE. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION/SNOW ACROSS
KANSAS AND COLORADO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN
QPF...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AREA OF KANSAS.
OVERALL THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SNOW CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. AT THIS TIME THINKING 2 TO 4
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MAYBE AN INCH OR SO IN THE I-80
CORRIDOR...AND LESS THAN AN INCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS EVENT
IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD MEAN
MORE SNOW FOR OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...ARCTIC AIR WILL NEVER FULLY SCOUR OUT OF
THE AREA THOUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODIFY SOMEWHAT HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S. BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
IS CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND
DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AT 27.12Z. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY VFR AS THE LOW
LEVELS STAY DRY. DO EXPECT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BEGIN TO MIX BY
LATE MORNING SO COULD SEE INCREASING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WEST OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KGID 261733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CU TRYING TO
DRIFT SOUTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE A NOTABLE IMPACT AT
EITHER TERMINAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING WINDS NORTHERLY AND AT
TIMES GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
E/SE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 261733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CU TRYING TO
DRIFT SOUTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE A NOTABLE IMPACT AT
EITHER TERMINAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING WINDS NORTHERLY AND AT
TIMES GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
E/SE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KGID 261733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CU TRYING TO
DRIFT SOUTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE A NOTABLE IMPACT AT
EITHER TERMINAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING WINDS NORTHERLY AND AT
TIMES GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD...AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE
E/SE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261721
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1121 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BRISK NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z WITH A
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL020
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT COULD BRIEFLY GO BROKEN FOR A TIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261721
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1121 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BRISK NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z WITH A
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL020
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT COULD BRIEFLY GO BROKEN FOR A TIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261721
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1121 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BRISK NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z WITH A
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10KT BY 02Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR FL020
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z...BUT COULD BRIEFLY GO BROKEN FOR A TIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 261149
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
549 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NERN MT INTO ERN
NEBR...CNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS RESULTING IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
RANGING FROM 0 AT ONL TO 15 AT OGA AND 16 AT IML WHERE OVERCAST
SKIES PERSIST. THERE REMAINS A FEW FLURRIES IN PARTS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...EVEN THE FLURRIES ARE BECOMING LESS COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...H85 TEMPS
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR -21C AT ONL TO ABOUT -12C AT OGA AND IML.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY FROM 13 AT ONL TO 20 AT LBF AND OGA AND 21 AT
IML. THESE HIGHS ARE FROM 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WENT  NEAR
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
NEAR AND EAST OF A GORDON THROUGH NORTH PLATTE LINE TODAY...TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
ABOUT THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING NORTH PLATTE AND
ARTHUR WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES NEAR 7 BELOW ARE FORECAST NEAR AND EAST OF VALENTINE
THROUGH BROKEN BOW. THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRESENCE OF
SERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE SERN
PNHDL INTO SWRN NEBR. WENT ABOVE BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHEAST...MAINLY
DICTATED BY THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ALL AREAS AND THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST INCLUDING
WESTERN DEUEL AND WESTERN CHASE COUNTY AS H7 AND H5 TROUGHS KICK
EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW RECYCLES
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
RAISING LOWS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES/PV ANOMALIES WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND DIVE
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THE TROUGH IS RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES HELPING TO DIG THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE
TROUGH SENDS SEVERAL STRONGER JET SEGMENTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS INSTEAD OF EMERGING ALL AT ONCE. AS THESE JET SEGMENTS MOVE
THROUGH...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED FOR A TIME...AND THEN WANE UNTIL
THE NEXT SURGE. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION/SNOW ACROSS
KANSAS AND COLORADO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN
QPF...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AREA OF KANSAS.
OVERALL THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SNOW CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. AT THIS TIME THINKING 2 TO 4
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MAYBE AN INCH OR SO IN THE I-80
CORRIDOR...AND LESS THAN AN INCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS EVENT
IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD MEAN
MORE SNOW FOR OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...ARCTIC AIR WILL NEVER FULLY SCOUR OUT OF
THE AREA THOUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODIFY SOMEWHAT HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S. BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
IS CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS. CURRENT FEW-SCT035 AT KLBF AND KVTN WILL LINGER INTO
THIS MORNING...WITH SKC INTO THIS AFTERNOON EVENING. AT
KLBF...INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR 10K FEET IS FORECAST
AFTER 10Z/27TH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 261149
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
549 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NERN MT INTO ERN
NEBR...CNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS RESULTING IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
RANGING FROM 0 AT ONL TO 15 AT OGA AND 16 AT IML WHERE OVERCAST
SKIES PERSIST. THERE REMAINS A FEW FLURRIES IN PARTS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...EVEN THE FLURRIES ARE BECOMING LESS COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...H85 TEMPS
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR -21C AT ONL TO ABOUT -12C AT OGA AND IML.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY FROM 13 AT ONL TO 20 AT LBF AND OGA AND 21 AT
IML. THESE HIGHS ARE FROM 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WENT  NEAR
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
NEAR AND EAST OF A GORDON THROUGH NORTH PLATTE LINE TODAY...TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
ABOUT THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING NORTH PLATTE AND
ARTHUR WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES NEAR 7 BELOW ARE FORECAST NEAR AND EAST OF VALENTINE
THROUGH BROKEN BOW. THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRESENCE OF
SERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE SERN
PNHDL INTO SWRN NEBR. WENT ABOVE BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHEAST...MAINLY
DICTATED BY THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ALL AREAS AND THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST INCLUDING
WESTERN DEUEL AND WESTERN CHASE COUNTY AS H7 AND H5 TROUGHS KICK
EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW RECYCLES
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
RAISING LOWS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES/PV ANOMALIES WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND DIVE
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THE TROUGH IS RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES HELPING TO DIG THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE
TROUGH SENDS SEVERAL STRONGER JET SEGMENTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS INSTEAD OF EMERGING ALL AT ONCE. AS THESE JET SEGMENTS MOVE
THROUGH...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED FOR A TIME...AND THEN WANE UNTIL
THE NEXT SURGE. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION/SNOW ACROSS
KANSAS AND COLORADO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN
QPF...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AREA OF KANSAS.
OVERALL THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SNOW CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. AT THIS TIME THINKING 2 TO 4
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MAYBE AN INCH OR SO IN THE I-80
CORRIDOR...AND LESS THAN AN INCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS EVENT
IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD MEAN
MORE SNOW FOR OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...ARCTIC AIR WILL NEVER FULLY SCOUR OUT OF
THE AREA THOUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODIFY SOMEWHAT HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S. BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
IS CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS. CURRENT FEW-SCT035 AT KLBF AND KVTN WILL LINGER INTO
THIS MORNING...WITH SKC INTO THIS AFTERNOON EVENING. AT
KLBF...INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR 10K FEET IS FORECAST
AFTER 10Z/27TH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 261149
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
549 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NERN MT INTO ERN
NEBR...CNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS RESULTING IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
RANGING FROM 0 AT ONL TO 15 AT OGA AND 16 AT IML WHERE OVERCAST
SKIES PERSIST. THERE REMAINS A FEW FLURRIES IN PARTS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...EVEN THE FLURRIES ARE BECOMING LESS COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...H85 TEMPS
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR -21C AT ONL TO ABOUT -12C AT OGA AND IML.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY FROM 13 AT ONL TO 20 AT LBF AND OGA AND 21 AT
IML. THESE HIGHS ARE FROM 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WENT  NEAR
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
NEAR AND EAST OF A GORDON THROUGH NORTH PLATTE LINE TODAY...TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
ABOUT THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING NORTH PLATTE AND
ARTHUR WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES NEAR 7 BELOW ARE FORECAST NEAR AND EAST OF VALENTINE
THROUGH BROKEN BOW. THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRESENCE OF
SERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE SERN
PNHDL INTO SWRN NEBR. WENT ABOVE BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHEAST...MAINLY
DICTATED BY THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ALL AREAS AND THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST INCLUDING
WESTERN DEUEL AND WESTERN CHASE COUNTY AS H7 AND H5 TROUGHS KICK
EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW RECYCLES
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
RAISING LOWS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES/PV ANOMALIES WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND DIVE
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THE TROUGH IS RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES HELPING TO DIG THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE
TROUGH SENDS SEVERAL STRONGER JET SEGMENTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS INSTEAD OF EMERGING ALL AT ONCE. AS THESE JET SEGMENTS MOVE
THROUGH...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED FOR A TIME...AND THEN WANE UNTIL
THE NEXT SURGE. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION/SNOW ACROSS
KANSAS AND COLORADO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN
QPF...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AREA OF KANSAS.
OVERALL THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SNOW CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. AT THIS TIME THINKING 2 TO 4
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MAYBE AN INCH OR SO IN THE I-80
CORRIDOR...AND LESS THAN AN INCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS EVENT
IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD MEAN
MORE SNOW FOR OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...ARCTIC AIR WILL NEVER FULLY SCOUR OUT OF
THE AREA THOUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODIFY SOMEWHAT HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S. BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
IS CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS. CURRENT FEW-SCT035 AT KLBF AND KVTN WILL LINGER INTO
THIS MORNING...WITH SKC INTO THIS AFTERNOON EVENING. AT
KLBF...INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR 10K FEET IS FORECAST
AFTER 10Z/27TH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 261149
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
549 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NERN MT INTO ERN
NEBR...CNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS RESULTING IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
RANGING FROM 0 AT ONL TO 15 AT OGA AND 16 AT IML WHERE OVERCAST
SKIES PERSIST. THERE REMAINS A FEW FLURRIES IN PARTS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...EVEN THE FLURRIES ARE BECOMING LESS COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...H85 TEMPS
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR -21C AT ONL TO ABOUT -12C AT OGA AND IML.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY FROM 13 AT ONL TO 20 AT LBF AND OGA AND 21 AT
IML. THESE HIGHS ARE FROM 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WENT  NEAR
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
NEAR AND EAST OF A GORDON THROUGH NORTH PLATTE LINE TODAY...TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
ABOUT THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING NORTH PLATTE AND
ARTHUR WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES NEAR 7 BELOW ARE FORECAST NEAR AND EAST OF VALENTINE
THROUGH BROKEN BOW. THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRESENCE OF
SERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE SERN
PNHDL INTO SWRN NEBR. WENT ABOVE BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHEAST...MAINLY
DICTATED BY THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ALL AREAS AND THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST INCLUDING
WESTERN DEUEL AND WESTERN CHASE COUNTY AS H7 AND H5 TROUGHS KICK
EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW RECYCLES
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
RAISING LOWS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES/PV ANOMALIES WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND DIVE
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THE TROUGH IS RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES HELPING TO DIG THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE
TROUGH SENDS SEVERAL STRONGER JET SEGMENTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS INSTEAD OF EMERGING ALL AT ONCE. AS THESE JET SEGMENTS MOVE
THROUGH...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED FOR A TIME...AND THEN WANE UNTIL
THE NEXT SURGE. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION/SNOW ACROSS
KANSAS AND COLORADO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN
QPF...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AREA OF KANSAS.
OVERALL THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SNOW CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. AT THIS TIME THINKING 2 TO 4
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MAYBE AN INCH OR SO IN THE I-80
CORRIDOR...AND LESS THAN AN INCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS EVENT
IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD MEAN
MORE SNOW FOR OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...ARCTIC AIR WILL NEVER FULLY SCOUR OUT OF
THE AREA THOUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODIFY SOMEWHAT HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S. BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
IS CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS. CURRENT FEW-SCT035 AT KLBF AND KVTN WILL LINGER INTO
THIS MORNING...WITH SKC INTO THIS AFTERNOON EVENING. AT
KLBF...INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR 10K FEET IS FORECAST
AFTER 10Z/27TH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KGID 261127
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS RETURNED AND ACCUMULATING/PLOWABLE SNOW
IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SNORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TODAY: A FEW STRATOCU BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT COULD DRIFT THRU UNTIL
15Z...OTHERWISE SKC. N WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND GUSTINESS
ENDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR SKC. WINDS BECOME LIGHT /UNDER 10 KTS/ FROM THE NE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY TURN CALM AFTER 06Z BEFORE ORGANIZING FROM
THE SE LATE. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 261127
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS RETURNED AND ACCUMULATING/PLOWABLE SNOW
IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SNORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TODAY: A FEW STRATOCU BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT COULD DRIFT THRU UNTIL
15Z...OTHERWISE SKC. N WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND GUSTINESS
ENDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR SKC. WINDS BECOME LIGHT /UNDER 10 KTS/ FROM THE NE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY TURN CALM AFTER 06Z BEFORE ORGANIZING FROM
THE SE LATE. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 261127
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS RETURNED AND ACCUMULATING/PLOWABLE SNOW
IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SNORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TODAY: A FEW STRATOCU BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT COULD DRIFT THRU UNTIL
15Z...OTHERWISE SKC. N WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND GUSTINESS
ENDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR SKC. WINDS BECOME LIGHT /UNDER 10 KTS/ FROM THE NE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY TURN CALM AFTER 06Z BEFORE ORGANIZING FROM
THE SE LATE. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 261127
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS RETURNED AND ACCUMULATING/PLOWABLE SNOW
IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SNORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRI MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TODAY: A FEW STRATOCU BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT COULD DRIFT THRU UNTIL
15Z...OTHERWISE SKC. N WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND GUSTINESS
ENDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR SKC. WINDS BECOME LIGHT /UNDER 10 KTS/ FROM THE NE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY TURN CALM AFTER 06Z BEFORE ORGANIZING FROM
THE SE LATE. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261113
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
513 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SC AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FM LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. THIS
MAY GO BKN AT KOMA/KOFK FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTN THAT COULD BE
IN THE MVFR RANGE. THESE WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN WITH
GENERALLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261113
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
513 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SC AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FM LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. THIS
MAY GO BKN AT KOMA/KOFK FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTN THAT COULD BE
IN THE MVFR RANGE. THESE WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN WITH
GENERALLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261113
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
513 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SC AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FM LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. THIS
MAY GO BKN AT KOMA/KOFK FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTN THAT COULD BE
IN THE MVFR RANGE. THESE WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN WITH
GENERALLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261113
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
513 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SC AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FM LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. THIS
MAY GO BKN AT KOMA/KOFK FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTN THAT COULD BE
IN THE MVFR RANGE. THESE WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN WITH
GENERALLY CLR SKIES TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KLBF 260958
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NERN MT INTO ERN
NEBR...CNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS RESULTING IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
RANGING FROM 0 AT ONL TO 15 AT OGA AND 16 AT IML WHERE OVERCAST
SKIES PERSIST. THERE REMAINS A FEW FLURRIES IN PARTS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...EVEN THE FLURRIES ARE BECOMING LESS COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...H85 TEMPS
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR -21C AT ONL TO ABOUT -12C AT OGA AND IML.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY FROM 13 AT ONL TO 20 AT LBF AND OGA AND 21 AT
IML. THESE HIGHS ARE FROM 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WENT  NEAR
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
NEAR AND EAST OF A GORDON THROUGH NORTH PLATTE LINE TODAY...TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
ABOUT THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING NORTH PLATTE AND
ARTHUR WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES NEAR 7 BELOW ARE FORECAST NEAR AND EAST OF VALENTINE
THROUGH BROKEN BOW. THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRESENCE OF
SERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE SERN
PNHDL INTO SWRN NEBR. WENT ABOVE BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHEAST...MAINLY
DICTATED BY THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ALL AREAS AND THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST INCLUDING
WESTERN DEUEL AND WESTERN CHASE COUNTY AS H7 AND H5 TROUGHS KICK
EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW RECYCLES
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
RAISING LOWS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES/PV ANOMALIES WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND DIVE
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THE TROUGH IS RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES HELPING TO DIG THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE
TROUGH SENDS SEVERAL STRONGER JET SEGMENTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS INSTEAD OF EMERGING ALL AT ONCE. AS THESE JET SEGMENTS MOVE
THROUGH...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED FOR A TIME...AND THEN WANE UNTIL
THE NEXT SURGE. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION/SNOW ACROSS
KANSAS AND COLORADO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN
QPF...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AREA OF KANSAS.
OVERALL THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SNOW CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. AT THIS TIME THINKING 2 TO 4
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MAYBE AN INCH OR SO IN THE I-80
CORRIDOR...AND LESS THAN AN INCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS EVENT
IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD MEAN
MORE SNOW FOR OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...ARCTIC AIR WILL NEVER FULLY SCOUR OUT OF
THE AREA THOUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODIFY SOMEWHAT HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S. BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
IS CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WRN/NCNTL NEB SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR 12Z-15Z THURSDAY MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR BUILD THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO ERN SD/NERN NEB BY 06Z THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KLBF 260958
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NERN MT INTO ERN
NEBR...CNTRL KS AND CNTRL OK. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS RESULTING IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
RANGING FROM 0 AT ONL TO 15 AT OGA AND 16 AT IML WHERE OVERCAST
SKIES PERSIST. THERE REMAINS A FEW FLURRIES IN PARTS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...EVEN THE FLURRIES ARE BECOMING LESS COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...H85 TEMPS
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR -21C AT ONL TO ABOUT -12C AT OGA AND IML.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY FROM 13 AT ONL TO 20 AT LBF AND OGA AND 21 AT
IML. THESE HIGHS ARE FROM 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WENT  NEAR
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
NEAR AND EAST OF A GORDON THROUGH NORTH PLATTE LINE TODAY...TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
ABOUT THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING NORTH PLATTE AND
ARTHUR WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES NEAR 7 BELOW ARE FORECAST NEAR AND EAST OF VALENTINE
THROUGH BROKEN BOW. THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRESENCE OF
SERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE SERN
PNHDL INTO SWRN NEBR. WENT ABOVE BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHEAST...MAINLY
DICTATED BY THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ALL AREAS AND THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FAR SOUTHWEST INCLUDING
WESTERN DEUEL AND WESTERN CHASE COUNTY AS H7 AND H5 TROUGHS KICK
EAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW RECYCLES
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
RAISING LOWS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES/PV ANOMALIES WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND DIVE
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THE TROUGH IS RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES HELPING TO DIG THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE
TROUGH SENDS SEVERAL STRONGER JET SEGMENTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS INSTEAD OF EMERGING ALL AT ONCE. AS THESE JET SEGMENTS MOVE
THROUGH...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED FOR A TIME...AND THEN WANE UNTIL
THE NEXT SURGE. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...AND FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION/SNOW ACROSS
KANSAS AND COLORADO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN
QPF...WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AREA OF KANSAS.
OVERALL THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SNOW CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. AT THIS TIME THINKING 2 TO 4
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MAYBE AN INCH OR SO IN THE I-80
CORRIDOR...AND LESS THAN AN INCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS EVENT
IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD MEAN
MORE SNOW FOR OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...ARCTIC AIR WILL NEVER FULLY SCOUR OUT OF
THE AREA THOUGH THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODIFY SOMEWHAT HOWEVER...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 30S. BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
IS CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WRN/NCNTL NEB SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR 12Z-15Z THURSDAY MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR BUILD THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO ERN SD/NERN NEB BY 06Z THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KGID 260951
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS RETURNED AND ACCUMULATING/PLOWABLE SNOW
REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SNORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260951
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS RETURNED AND ACCUMULATING/PLOWABLE SNOW
REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SNORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260951
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS RETURNED AND ACCUMULATING/PLOWABLE SNOW
REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SNORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260951
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS RETURNED AND ACCUMULATING/PLOWABLE SNOW
REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SNORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260951
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS RETURNED AND ACCUMULATING/PLOWABLE SNOW
REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE CNTRL USA. IT WILL BROADEN TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CONUS BY DAYBREAK FRI. NO WX-PRODUCING
SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA.

SURFACE: BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRES WAS DROPPING S OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS HIGH WILL CONT SLIDING SE AND WILL BE OVER
WRN IA BY 12Z/FRI.

TODAY: BITTERLY COLD. WINDS WILL STILL BE BRISK THIS MORNING WITH
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS -20F AT TIMES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THRU MID-MORNING. HIGH TEMPS 15-25F WHICH WILL BE 25F BELOW
NORMAL.

TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOW TEMP FCST. LOWS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY WINDS/CLOUDS. MINOR UPSLOPE INTO THE ROCKIES WILL
GENERATE MID-LVL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE OVERTAKING THE FCST AREA FROM
THE SW PER MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. IT`S ALSO TOUGH TO
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATING WILL OCCUR FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND
E.

BOTTOM LINE...LOWS WERE INCREASED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AT 12Z FRIDAY. THIS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THAT SAID...ANY ATTEMPT BY THE FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SNORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA SHOULD THEN BECOME TRULY
SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THIS...AN ACTIVE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

STARTING WITH WHAT FEW DRY PERIODS WE HAVE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM BEING
REALIZED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN KICK IN BEGINNING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST THE LEFT- FRONT QUADRANT OF AN ~80KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT. QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ALL RESPOND BY PROVIDING A SOLID BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF KANSAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN SEEM TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR
AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF ENHANCED
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION AND RESULTANT OMEGA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST WILL REMAIN IN EXISTENCE AND CONTINUE
TO WARRANT POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...TRIED TO BREAK THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION INTO TWO ACTS...THE FIRST BEING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHEN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THE
SECOND ACT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MORE OR LESS A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED POPS BUT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ON AGAIN / OFF AGAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM DAY
TO DAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...OPTED NOT TO
GET TOO "CUTE" AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION AS- IS
WITH GENERALLY 20-40% POPS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA. FAR TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY STATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM DAY TO DAY.

NOW TURNING OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE...AS WELL
AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET DYNAMICS. GIVEN THIS...THE
"LIKELY" POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...AS INHERITED FROM THE DAY-
SHIFT...SEEM RIGHT ON AND IN FACT...OPTED TO RAISE THOSE POPS
ANOTHER ~10%. AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW SHOWS 40-70%
POPS ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS PLACED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN POPS IS THEN PRESENTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH IN THE 20-50% RANGE WHICH "FLOWS" WELL INTO
20-40% POPS WHICH BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER THE NAM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...SUGGEST A PERSISTENTLY COLD BOUNDARY-
LAYER AIR MASS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE SOME
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM SNOW AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AS A RESULT...
OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THIS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS SUGGESTING SNOW-WATER RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20:1 WILL BE
OBSERVED...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 20:1.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND SUNDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...
TAKING A BLEND OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PROVIDES LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.15" DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ANOTHER 0.01-0.10" SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER 0.01-0.10"
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST. TAKING THESE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SNOW-WATER RATIOS YIELDS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST.

AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL BE OVERLY STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND...10-15KTS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS...SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THUS MAKING THE SNOWFALL THE PRIMARY HAZARD
THIS WEEKEND.

PREVIOUS ISSUANCES OF THE HWO FEATURED "ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL"
AND "TRAVEL ISSUES" DURING THE WEEKEND AND AT THIS TIME...THAT
MESSAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. AGAIN...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE SO
PROLONGED ITS HARD TO TELL WHEN/WHERE TO PRESENT "BREAK POINT"
BETWEEN THE END OF ONE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AND THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER. AS A RESULT...ITS HARD TO CLEARLY DEFINE HOW MUCH SNOW
GOING TO FALL. BUT BREAKING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL INTO
"TWO ACTS" GIVES US AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A MESSAGE TO THE
PUBLIC THAT SUGGESTS LESS THAN IDEAL TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND...AND THAT THE FORECAST NEEDS TO BE
CONTINUALLY MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO...FOR THE
HWO...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO CENTER ATTENTION ON THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...
GENERALLY IN THE 1-5 INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260850
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WHEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 2500 FEET. MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MID MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260850
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WHEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 2500 FEET. MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MID MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260850
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WHEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 2500 FEET. MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MID MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260850
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WHEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 2500 FEET. MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MID MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260850
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WHEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 2500 FEET. MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MID MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260850
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM INITIALLY
THEN TIMING AND CHANCE OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CANADA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND SETTLES OVER
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BUT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SATURDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS REGION BRINGING WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS AREA COULD SEE UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE TO THE NORTH. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TWO
OTHER PERIODS OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NO TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS IS SEEN
YET FOR THE AREA IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WHEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 2500 FEET. MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MID MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KGID 260558
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LVL OVC HEADING SE AND THIS WILL RETARD THE
TEMP FALL THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SO LOW TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 3-4F
AND FCST SKY COVER WAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. RADAR AND SFC OBS
SHOW FLURRY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AND LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SE 1/4
OF THE FCST AREA. HJH DROPPED BRIEFLY TO 2.5 MI AT 1135 PM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME FLURRIES OVER THE SANDHILLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260558
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LVL OVC HEADING SE AND THIS WILL RETARD THE
TEMP FALL THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SO LOW TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 3-4F
AND FCST SKY COVER WAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. RADAR AND SFC OBS
SHOW FLURRY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AND LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SE 1/4
OF THE FCST AREA. HJH DROPPED BRIEFLY TO 2.5 MI AT 1135 PM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME FLURRIES OVER THE SANDHILLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260558
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LVL OVC HEADING SE AND THIS WILL RETARD THE
TEMP FALL THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SO LOW TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 3-4F
AND FCST SKY COVER WAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. RADAR AND SFC OBS
SHOW FLURRY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AND LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SE 1/4
OF THE FCST AREA. HJH DROPPED BRIEFLY TO 2.5 MI AT 1135 PM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME FLURRIES OVER THE SANDHILLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 260558
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LVL OVC HEADING SE AND THIS WILL RETARD THE
TEMP FALL THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SO LOW TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 3-4F
AND FCST SKY COVER WAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. RADAR AND SFC OBS
SHOW FLURRY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AND LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SE 1/4
OF THE FCST AREA. HJH DROPPED BRIEFLY TO 2.5 MI AT 1135 PM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME FLURRIES OVER THE SANDHILLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260530
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FIRST PRECIP EVENT IS WINDING DOWN WITH RAIN/SNOW BAND QUICKLY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING EAST OF THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 6 PM. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MONONA/HARRISON...BUT LEAVE IN FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SHELBY/POTTAWATTAMIE FOR ONE MORE HOUR.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO A TRANSITION OF SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURBECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
E BUILDS INTO REGION. LOW TONIGHT DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH...COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10
TO 22 BELOW ZERO. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO CRITERIA AROUND -20 LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SUB ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. STILL COLD THOUGH WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH ECMWF STILL ABOUT 6
HOURS QUICKER WITH THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THAN GFS/NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY.
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW STILL SEEMS FINE FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WHILE WE/RE JUST
WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A PLOWABLE SNOW STILL
SEEMS PROBABLY...WITH MAYBE 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80...SLIGHTLY
LESS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG...WITH THE SNOW SPREAD OUT OVER A 24
HOUR PERIOD. ALL IN ALL...NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSHES EAST. THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.
THERE IS SOME WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT COULD NOSE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL
FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WHEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 2500 FEET. MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MID MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-
     055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260530
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FIRST PRECIP EVENT IS WINDING DOWN WITH RAIN/SNOW BAND QUICKLY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING EAST OF THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 6 PM. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MONONA/HARRISON...BUT LEAVE IN FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SHELBY/POTTAWATTAMIE FOR ONE MORE HOUR.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO A TRANSITION OF SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURBECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
E BUILDS INTO REGION. LOW TONIGHT DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH...COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10
TO 22 BELOW ZERO. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO CRITERIA AROUND -20 LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SUB ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. STILL COLD THOUGH WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH ECMWF STILL ABOUT 6
HOURS QUICKER WITH THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THAN GFS/NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY.
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW STILL SEEMS FINE FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WHILE WE/RE JUST
WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A PLOWABLE SNOW STILL
SEEMS PROBABLY...WITH MAYBE 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80...SLIGHTLY
LESS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG...WITH THE SNOW SPREAD OUT OVER A 24
HOUR PERIOD. ALL IN ALL...NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSHES EAST. THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.
THERE IS SOME WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT COULD NOSE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL
FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WHEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 2500 FEET. MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MID MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-
     055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260530
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FIRST PRECIP EVENT IS WINDING DOWN WITH RAIN/SNOW BAND QUICKLY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING EAST OF THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 6 PM. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MONONA/HARRISON...BUT LEAVE IN FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SHELBY/POTTAWATTAMIE FOR ONE MORE HOUR.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO A TRANSITION OF SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURBECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
E BUILDS INTO REGION. LOW TONIGHT DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH...COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10
TO 22 BELOW ZERO. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO CRITERIA AROUND -20 LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SUB ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. STILL COLD THOUGH WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH ECMWF STILL ABOUT 6
HOURS QUICKER WITH THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THAN GFS/NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY.
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW STILL SEEMS FINE FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WHILE WE/RE JUST
WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A PLOWABLE SNOW STILL
SEEMS PROBABLY...WITH MAYBE 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80...SLIGHTLY
LESS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG...WITH THE SNOW SPREAD OUT OVER A 24
HOUR PERIOD. ALL IN ALL...NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSHES EAST. THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.
THERE IS SOME WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT COULD NOSE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL
FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WHEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 2500 FEET. MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MID MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-
     055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260530
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FIRST PRECIP EVENT IS WINDING DOWN WITH RAIN/SNOW BAND QUICKLY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING EAST OF THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 6 PM. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MONONA/HARRISON...BUT LEAVE IN FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SHELBY/POTTAWATTAMIE FOR ONE MORE HOUR.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO A TRANSITION OF SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURBECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
E BUILDS INTO REGION. LOW TONIGHT DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH...COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10
TO 22 BELOW ZERO. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO CRITERIA AROUND -20 LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SUB ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. STILL COLD THOUGH WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH ECMWF STILL ABOUT 6
HOURS QUICKER WITH THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THAN GFS/NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY.
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW STILL SEEMS FINE FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WHILE WE/RE JUST
WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A PLOWABLE SNOW STILL
SEEMS PROBABLY...WITH MAYBE 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80...SLIGHTLY
LESS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG...WITH THE SNOW SPREAD OUT OVER A 24
HOUR PERIOD. ALL IN ALL...NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSHES EAST. THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.
THERE IS SOME WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT COULD NOSE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL
FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WHEN SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 2500 FEET. MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA INTO MID MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-
     055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 260520 AAC
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1120 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND INTO ALASKA
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS PATTERN LED TO AN EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS....WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN COMING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ONE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOCALLY...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS FAR.
ADDITIONALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING CONDITIONS BRISK
WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND LOW 20S.
POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BECOME LESS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT LIKELY PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE AND THE FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FARTHER EAST.

A NEW FORECAST IS OUT WITH HIGHER POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE 850MB AIR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TO BE AT -20C OR COLDER WHICH WILL BE DIPPING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS AIR WILL STAY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /WARMER TO COLDER/.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY TIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN
BEGINS RELAXING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO STAY
UP...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED. THE WINDS WILL START
TO FALL OFF BY MORNING...YET THINKING THEY WILL STAY AT LEAST
10KTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND LACK OF SNOW THAT FELL
TODAY...FELT LOWS NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PRIOR
FORECAST WHICH WAS TAKING A LARGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IMPACT.
WITHOUT THIS IMPACT IMPACT...WILL RELY ON THE PURE COLD AIRMASS
SO HAVE LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW 0F OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AROUND 10F IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF NEAR MORNING...BUT JUST HOW MUCH
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WIND CHILLS. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS YIELD MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO -20F TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEED CHANGING JUST 1 OR 2 KTS WILL CHANGE WIND
CHILLS AND COULD CERTAINLY BE TOO HIGH WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
FORECAST REACHING THE -20F WIND CHILL READING...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO BE CENTERED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS BUILDS SOUTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING SHALLOW MIXING DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS /GUSTS TO 15KTS-18KTS/ IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN FACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LOWS WITH READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THOSE AREAS. SO DESPITE THE AIRMASS
BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER /-10C TO -12C AT 850MB/ THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PROHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARE
AROUND -20C. GUIDANCE HAS LOWS BELOW ZERO /SINGLE DIGITS/ FOR ALL
BUT SW NEB WHERE LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LUCKILY NO SNOW PACK OR LOWS WOULD BE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...HOWEVER ARCTIC AIR IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE DEPARTING OF THE SE SFC HIGH. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE THAT DOES GET DRAWN NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. LOW CONFIDENCE AND HAVE INCLUDING
ONLY IN FAR SW NEB. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY/WAVES WILL EJECT ONTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
LOW HOLDING ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER THE WAVE STRENGTH/TRACK
VARIES GREATLY. MOST HAVE NEB ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 30S. TEMPS ALOFT BELOW ZERO C
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WAVES AND WILL REFINE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.

BY MID NEXT WEEK THE SW LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...IF INTO NEB AT ALL. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WRN/NCNTL NEB SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR 12Z-15Z THURSDAY MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR BUILD THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO ERN SD/NERN NEB BY 06Z THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 260520 AAC
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1120 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND INTO ALASKA
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS PATTERN LED TO AN EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS....WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN COMING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ONE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOCALLY...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS FAR.
ADDITIONALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING CONDITIONS BRISK
WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND LOW 20S.
POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BECOME LESS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT LIKELY PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE AND THE FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FARTHER EAST.

A NEW FORECAST IS OUT WITH HIGHER POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE 850MB AIR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TO BE AT -20C OR COLDER WHICH WILL BE DIPPING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS AIR WILL STAY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /WARMER TO COLDER/.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY TIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN
BEGINS RELAXING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO STAY
UP...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED. THE WINDS WILL START
TO FALL OFF BY MORNING...YET THINKING THEY WILL STAY AT LEAST
10KTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND LACK OF SNOW THAT FELL
TODAY...FELT LOWS NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PRIOR
FORECAST WHICH WAS TAKING A LARGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IMPACT.
WITHOUT THIS IMPACT IMPACT...WILL RELY ON THE PURE COLD AIRMASS
SO HAVE LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW 0F OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AROUND 10F IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF NEAR MORNING...BUT JUST HOW MUCH
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WIND CHILLS. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS YIELD MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO -20F TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEED CHANGING JUST 1 OR 2 KTS WILL CHANGE WIND
CHILLS AND COULD CERTAINLY BE TOO HIGH WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
FORECAST REACHING THE -20F WIND CHILL READING...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO BE CENTERED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS BUILDS SOUTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING SHALLOW MIXING DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS /GUSTS TO 15KTS-18KTS/ IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN FACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LOWS WITH READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THOSE AREAS. SO DESPITE THE AIRMASS
BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER /-10C TO -12C AT 850MB/ THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PROHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARE
AROUND -20C. GUIDANCE HAS LOWS BELOW ZERO /SINGLE DIGITS/ FOR ALL
BUT SW NEB WHERE LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LUCKILY NO SNOW PACK OR LOWS WOULD BE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...HOWEVER ARCTIC AIR IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE DEPARTING OF THE SE SFC HIGH. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE THAT DOES GET DRAWN NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. LOW CONFIDENCE AND HAVE INCLUDING
ONLY IN FAR SW NEB. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY/WAVES WILL EJECT ONTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
LOW HOLDING ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER THE WAVE STRENGTH/TRACK
VARIES GREATLY. MOST HAVE NEB ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 30S. TEMPS ALOFT BELOW ZERO C
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WAVES AND WILL REFINE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.

BY MID NEXT WEEK THE SW LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...IF INTO NEB AT ALL. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WRN/NCNTL NEB SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR 12Z-15Z THURSDAY MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR BUILD THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO ERN SD/NERN NEB BY 06Z THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 252347 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
547 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND INTO ALASKA
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS PATTERN LED TO AN EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS....WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN COMING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ONE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOCALLY...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS FAR.
ADDITIONALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING CONDITIONS BRISK
WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND LOW 20S.
POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BECOME LESS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT LIKELY PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE AND THE FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FARTHER EAST.

A NEW FORECAST IS OUT WITH HIGHER POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE 850MB AIR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TO BE AT -20C OR COLDER WHICH WILL BE DIPPING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS AIR WILL STAY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /WARMER TO COLDER/.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY TIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN
BEGINS RELAXING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO STAY
UP...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED. THE WINDS WILL START
TO FALL OFF BY MORNING...YET THINKING THEY WILL STAY AT LEAST
10KTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND LACK OF SNOW THAT FELL
TODAY...FELT LOWS NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PRIOR
FORECAST WHICH WAS TAKING A LARGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IMPACT.
WITHOUT THIS IMPACT IMPACT...WILL RELY ON THE PURE COLD AIRMASS
SO HAVE LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW 0F OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AROUND 10F IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF NEAR MORNING...BUT JUST HOW MUCH
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WIND CHILLS. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS YIELD MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO -20F TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEED CHANGING JUST 1 OR 2 KTS WILL CHANGE WIND
CHILLS AND COULD CERTAINLY BE TOO HIGH WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
FORECAST REACHING THE -20F WIND CHILL READING...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO BE CENTERED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS BUILDS SOUTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING SHALLOW MIXING DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS /GUSTS TO 15KTS-18KTS/ IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN FACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LOWS WITH READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THOSE AREAS. SO DESPITE THE AIRMASS
BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER /-10C TO -12C AT 850MB/ THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PROHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARE
AROUND -20C. GUIDANCE HAS LOWS BELOW ZERO /SINGLE DIGITS/ FOR ALL
BUT SW NEB WHERE LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LUCKILY NO SNOW PACK OR LOWS WOULD BE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...HOWEVER ARCTIC AIR IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE DEPARTING OF THE SE SFC HIGH. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE THAT DOES GET DRAWN NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. LOW CONFIDENCE AND HAVE INCLUDING
ONLY IN FAR SW NEB. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY/WAVES WILL EJECT ONTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
LOW HOLDING ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER THE WAVE STRENGTH/TRACK
VARIES GREATLY. MOST HAVE NEB ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 30S. TEMPS ALOFT BELOW ZERO C
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WAVES AND WILL REFINE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.

BY MID NEXT WEEK THE SW LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...IF INTO NEB AT ALL. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW AND LOW CIGS ACROSS WRN NEB AND PARTS OF NCNTL NEB.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END AND VFR SHOULD DEVELOP. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 252347 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
547 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND INTO ALASKA
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS PATTERN LED TO AN EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS....WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN COMING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ONE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOCALLY...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS FAR.
ADDITIONALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING CONDITIONS BRISK
WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND LOW 20S.
POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BECOME LESS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT LIKELY PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE AND THE FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FARTHER EAST.

A NEW FORECAST IS OUT WITH HIGHER POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE 850MB AIR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TO BE AT -20C OR COLDER WHICH WILL BE DIPPING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS AIR WILL STAY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /WARMER TO COLDER/.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY TIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN
BEGINS RELAXING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO STAY
UP...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED. THE WINDS WILL START
TO FALL OFF BY MORNING...YET THINKING THEY WILL STAY AT LEAST
10KTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND LACK OF SNOW THAT FELL
TODAY...FELT LOWS NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PRIOR
FORECAST WHICH WAS TAKING A LARGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IMPACT.
WITHOUT THIS IMPACT IMPACT...WILL RELY ON THE PURE COLD AIRMASS
SO HAVE LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW 0F OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AROUND 10F IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF NEAR MORNING...BUT JUST HOW MUCH
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WIND CHILLS. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS YIELD MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO -20F TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEED CHANGING JUST 1 OR 2 KTS WILL CHANGE WIND
CHILLS AND COULD CERTAINLY BE TOO HIGH WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
FORECAST REACHING THE -20F WIND CHILL READING...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO BE CENTERED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS BUILDS SOUTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING SHALLOW MIXING DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS /GUSTS TO 15KTS-18KTS/ IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN FACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LOWS WITH READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THOSE AREAS. SO DESPITE THE AIRMASS
BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER /-10C TO -12C AT 850MB/ THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PROHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARE
AROUND -20C. GUIDANCE HAS LOWS BELOW ZERO /SINGLE DIGITS/ FOR ALL
BUT SW NEB WHERE LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LUCKILY NO SNOW PACK OR LOWS WOULD BE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...HOWEVER ARCTIC AIR IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE DEPARTING OF THE SE SFC HIGH. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE THAT DOES GET DRAWN NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. LOW CONFIDENCE AND HAVE INCLUDING
ONLY IN FAR SW NEB. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY/WAVES WILL EJECT ONTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
LOW HOLDING ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER THE WAVE STRENGTH/TRACK
VARIES GREATLY. MOST HAVE NEB ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 30S. TEMPS ALOFT BELOW ZERO C
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WAVES AND WILL REFINE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.

BY MID NEXT WEEK THE SW LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...IF INTO NEB AT ALL. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW AND LOW CIGS ACROSS WRN NEB AND PARTS OF NCNTL NEB.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END AND VFR SHOULD DEVELOP. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 252347 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
547 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND INTO ALASKA
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS PATTERN LED TO AN EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS....WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN COMING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ONE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOCALLY...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS FAR.
ADDITIONALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING CONDITIONS BRISK
WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND LOW 20S.
POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BECOME LESS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT LIKELY PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE AND THE FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FARTHER EAST.

A NEW FORECAST IS OUT WITH HIGHER POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE 850MB AIR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TO BE AT -20C OR COLDER WHICH WILL BE DIPPING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS AIR WILL STAY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /WARMER TO COLDER/.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY TIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN
BEGINS RELAXING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO STAY
UP...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED. THE WINDS WILL START
TO FALL OFF BY MORNING...YET THINKING THEY WILL STAY AT LEAST
10KTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND LACK OF SNOW THAT FELL
TODAY...FELT LOWS NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PRIOR
FORECAST WHICH WAS TAKING A LARGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IMPACT.
WITHOUT THIS IMPACT IMPACT...WILL RELY ON THE PURE COLD AIRMASS
SO HAVE LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW 0F OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AROUND 10F IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF NEAR MORNING...BUT JUST HOW MUCH
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WIND CHILLS. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS YIELD MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO -20F TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEED CHANGING JUST 1 OR 2 KTS WILL CHANGE WIND
CHILLS AND COULD CERTAINLY BE TOO HIGH WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
FORECAST REACHING THE -20F WIND CHILL READING...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO BE CENTERED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS BUILDS SOUTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING SHALLOW MIXING DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS /GUSTS TO 15KTS-18KTS/ IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN FACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LOWS WITH READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THOSE AREAS. SO DESPITE THE AIRMASS
BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER /-10C TO -12C AT 850MB/ THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PROHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARE
AROUND -20C. GUIDANCE HAS LOWS BELOW ZERO /SINGLE DIGITS/ FOR ALL
BUT SW NEB WHERE LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LUCKILY NO SNOW PACK OR LOWS WOULD BE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...HOWEVER ARCTIC AIR IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE DEPARTING OF THE SE SFC HIGH. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE THAT DOES GET DRAWN NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. LOW CONFIDENCE AND HAVE INCLUDING
ONLY IN FAR SW NEB. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY/WAVES WILL EJECT ONTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
LOW HOLDING ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER THE WAVE STRENGTH/TRACK
VARIES GREATLY. MOST HAVE NEB ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 30S. TEMPS ALOFT BELOW ZERO C
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WAVES AND WILL REFINE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.

BY MID NEXT WEEK THE SW LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...IF INTO NEB AT ALL. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW AND LOW CIGS ACROSS WRN NEB AND PARTS OF NCNTL NEB.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END AND VFR SHOULD DEVELOP. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 252347 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
547 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND INTO ALASKA
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS PATTERN LED TO AN EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS....WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN COMING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ONE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOCALLY...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS FAR.
ADDITIONALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING CONDITIONS BRISK
WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND LOW 20S.
POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BECOME LESS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT LIKELY PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE AND THE FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FARTHER EAST.

A NEW FORECAST IS OUT WITH HIGHER POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE 850MB AIR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TO BE AT -20C OR COLDER WHICH WILL BE DIPPING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS AIR WILL STAY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /WARMER TO COLDER/.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY TIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN
BEGINS RELAXING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO STAY
UP...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED. THE WINDS WILL START
TO FALL OFF BY MORNING...YET THINKING THEY WILL STAY AT LEAST
10KTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND LACK OF SNOW THAT FELL
TODAY...FELT LOWS NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PRIOR
FORECAST WHICH WAS TAKING A LARGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IMPACT.
WITHOUT THIS IMPACT IMPACT...WILL RELY ON THE PURE COLD AIRMASS
SO HAVE LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW 0F OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AROUND 10F IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF NEAR MORNING...BUT JUST HOW MUCH
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WIND CHILLS. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS YIELD MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO -20F TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEED CHANGING JUST 1 OR 2 KTS WILL CHANGE WIND
CHILLS AND COULD CERTAINLY BE TOO HIGH WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
FORECAST REACHING THE -20F WIND CHILL READING...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO BE CENTERED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS BUILDS SOUTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING SHALLOW MIXING DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS /GUSTS TO 15KTS-18KTS/ IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN FACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LOWS WITH READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THOSE AREAS. SO DESPITE THE AIRMASS
BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER /-10C TO -12C AT 850MB/ THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PROHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARE
AROUND -20C. GUIDANCE HAS LOWS BELOW ZERO /SINGLE DIGITS/ FOR ALL
BUT SW NEB WHERE LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LUCKILY NO SNOW PACK OR LOWS WOULD BE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...HOWEVER ARCTIC AIR IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE DEPARTING OF THE SE SFC HIGH. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE THAT DOES GET DRAWN NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. LOW CONFIDENCE AND HAVE INCLUDING
ONLY IN FAR SW NEB. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY/WAVES WILL EJECT ONTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
LOW HOLDING ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER THE WAVE STRENGTH/TRACK
VARIES GREATLY. MOST HAVE NEB ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 30S. TEMPS ALOFT BELOW ZERO C
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WAVES AND WILL REFINE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.

BY MID NEXT WEEK THE SW LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...IF INTO NEB AT ALL. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW AND LOW CIGS ACROSS WRN NEB AND PARTS OF NCNTL NEB.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END AND VFR SHOULD DEVELOP. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 252347 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
547 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND INTO ALASKA
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS PATTERN LED TO AN EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS....WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN COMING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ONE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOCALLY...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS FAR.
ADDITIONALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING CONDITIONS BRISK
WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND LOW 20S.
POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BECOME LESS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT LIKELY PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE AND THE FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FARTHER EAST.

A NEW FORECAST IS OUT WITH HIGHER POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE 850MB AIR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TO BE AT -20C OR COLDER WHICH WILL BE DIPPING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS AIR WILL STAY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /WARMER TO COLDER/.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY TIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN
BEGINS RELAXING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO STAY
UP...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED. THE WINDS WILL START
TO FALL OFF BY MORNING...YET THINKING THEY WILL STAY AT LEAST
10KTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND LACK OF SNOW THAT FELL
TODAY...FELT LOWS NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PRIOR
FORECAST WHICH WAS TAKING A LARGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IMPACT.
WITHOUT THIS IMPACT IMPACT...WILL RELY ON THE PURE COLD AIRMASS
SO HAVE LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW 0F OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AROUND 10F IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF NEAR MORNING...BUT JUST HOW MUCH
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WIND CHILLS. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS YIELD MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO -20F TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEED CHANGING JUST 1 OR 2 KTS WILL CHANGE WIND
CHILLS AND COULD CERTAINLY BE TOO HIGH WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
FORECAST REACHING THE -20F WIND CHILL READING...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO BE CENTERED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS BUILDS SOUTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING SHALLOW MIXING DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS /GUSTS TO 15KTS-18KTS/ IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN FACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LOWS WITH READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THOSE AREAS. SO DESPITE THE AIRMASS
BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER /-10C TO -12C AT 850MB/ THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PROHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARE
AROUND -20C. GUIDANCE HAS LOWS BELOW ZERO /SINGLE DIGITS/ FOR ALL
BUT SW NEB WHERE LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LUCKILY NO SNOW PACK OR LOWS WOULD BE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...HOWEVER ARCTIC AIR IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE DEPARTING OF THE SE SFC HIGH. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE THAT DOES GET DRAWN NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. LOW CONFIDENCE AND HAVE INCLUDING
ONLY IN FAR SW NEB. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY/WAVES WILL EJECT ONTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
LOW HOLDING ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER THE WAVE STRENGTH/TRACK
VARIES GREATLY. MOST HAVE NEB ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 30S. TEMPS ALOFT BELOW ZERO C
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WAVES AND WILL REFINE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.

BY MID NEXT WEEK THE SW LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...IF INTO NEB AT ALL. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW AND LOW CIGS ACROSS WRN NEB AND PARTS OF NCNTL NEB.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END AND VFR SHOULD DEVELOP. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 252347 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
547 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND INTO ALASKA
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS PATTERN LED TO AN EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS....WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN COMING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ONE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOCALLY...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS FAR.
ADDITIONALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING CONDITIONS BRISK
WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND LOW 20S.
POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BECOME LESS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT LIKELY PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE AND THE FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FARTHER EAST.

A NEW FORECAST IS OUT WITH HIGHER POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE 850MB AIR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TO BE AT -20C OR COLDER WHICH WILL BE DIPPING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS AIR WILL STAY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /WARMER TO COLDER/.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY TIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN
BEGINS RELAXING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO STAY
UP...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED. THE WINDS WILL START
TO FALL OFF BY MORNING...YET THINKING THEY WILL STAY AT LEAST
10KTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND LACK OF SNOW THAT FELL
TODAY...FELT LOWS NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PRIOR
FORECAST WHICH WAS TAKING A LARGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IMPACT.
WITHOUT THIS IMPACT IMPACT...WILL RELY ON THE PURE COLD AIRMASS
SO HAVE LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW 0F OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AROUND 10F IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF NEAR MORNING...BUT JUST HOW MUCH
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WIND CHILLS. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS YIELD MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO -20F TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEED CHANGING JUST 1 OR 2 KTS WILL CHANGE WIND
CHILLS AND COULD CERTAINLY BE TOO HIGH WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
FORECAST REACHING THE -20F WIND CHILL READING...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO BE CENTERED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS BUILDS SOUTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING SHALLOW MIXING DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS /GUSTS TO 15KTS-18KTS/ IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN FACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LOWS WITH READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THOSE AREAS. SO DESPITE THE AIRMASS
BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER /-10C TO -12C AT 850MB/ THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PROHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARE
AROUND -20C. GUIDANCE HAS LOWS BELOW ZERO /SINGLE DIGITS/ FOR ALL
BUT SW NEB WHERE LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LUCKILY NO SNOW PACK OR LOWS WOULD BE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...HOWEVER ARCTIC AIR IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE DEPARTING OF THE SE SFC HIGH. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE THAT DOES GET DRAWN NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. LOW CONFIDENCE AND HAVE INCLUDING
ONLY IN FAR SW NEB. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY/WAVES WILL EJECT ONTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
LOW HOLDING ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER THE WAVE STRENGTH/TRACK
VARIES GREATLY. MOST HAVE NEB ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 30S. TEMPS ALOFT BELOW ZERO C
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WAVES AND WILL REFINE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.

BY MID NEXT WEEK THE SW LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...IF INTO NEB AT ALL. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW AND LOW CIGS ACROSS WRN NEB AND PARTS OF NCNTL NEB.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END AND VFR SHOULD DEVELOP. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KGID 252346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KGID 252346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 252346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KGID 252346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252325
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FIRST PRECIP EVENT IS WINDING DOWN WITH RAIN/SNOW BAND QUICKLY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING EAST OF THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 6 PM. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MONONA/HARRISON...BUT LEAVE IN FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SHELBY/POTTAWATTAMIE FOR ONE MORE HOUR.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO A TRANSITION OF SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. LOW TONIGHT DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH...COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10
TO 22 BELOW ZERO. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO CRITERIA AROUND -20 LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SUB ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. STILL COLD THOUGH WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH ECMWF STILL ABOUT 6
HOURS QUICKER WITH THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THAN GFS/NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY.
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW STILL SEEMS FINE FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WHILE WE/RE JUST
WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A PLOWABLE SNOW STILL
SEEMS PROBABLY...WITH MAYBE 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80...SLIGHTLY
LESS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG...WITH THE SNOW SPREAD OUT OVER A 24
HOUR PERIOD. ALL IN ALL...NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSHES EAST. THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.
THERE IS SOME WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT COULD NOSE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL
FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND PSBLY
PAST MIDNIGHT...BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-
     055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252325
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FIRST PRECIP EVENT IS WINDING DOWN WITH RAIN/SNOW BAND QUICKLY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING EAST OF THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 6 PM. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MONONA/HARRISON...BUT LEAVE IN FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SHELBY/POTTAWATTAMIE FOR ONE MORE HOUR.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO A TRANSITION OF SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. LOW TONIGHT DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH...COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10
TO 22 BELOW ZERO. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO CRITERIA AROUND -20 LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SUB ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. STILL COLD THOUGH WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH ECMWF STILL ABOUT 6
HOURS QUICKER WITH THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THAN GFS/NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY.
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW STILL SEEMS FINE FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WHILE WE/RE JUST
WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A PLOWABLE SNOW STILL
SEEMS PROBABLY...WITH MAYBE 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80...SLIGHTLY
LESS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG...WITH THE SNOW SPREAD OUT OVER A 24
HOUR PERIOD. ALL IN ALL...NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSHES EAST. THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.
THERE IS SOME WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT COULD NOSE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL
FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND PSBLY
PAST MIDNIGHT...BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-
     055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252325
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FIRST PRECIP EVENT IS WINDING DOWN WITH RAIN/SNOW BAND QUICKLY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING EAST OF THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 6 PM. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MONONA/HARRISON...BUT LEAVE IN FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SHELBY/POTTAWATTAMIE FOR ONE MORE HOUR.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO A TRANSITION OF SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. LOW TONIGHT DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH...COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10
TO 22 BELOW ZERO. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO CRITERIA AROUND -20 LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SUB ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. STILL COLD THOUGH WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH ECMWF STILL ABOUT 6
HOURS QUICKER WITH THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THAN GFS/NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY.
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW STILL SEEMS FINE FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WHILE WE/RE JUST
WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A PLOWABLE SNOW STILL
SEEMS PROBABLY...WITH MAYBE 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80...SLIGHTLY
LESS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG...WITH THE SNOW SPREAD OUT OVER A 24
HOUR PERIOD. ALL IN ALL...NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSHES EAST. THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.
THERE IS SOME WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT COULD NOSE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL
FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND PSBLY
PAST MIDNIGHT...BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-
     055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252325
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FIRST PRECIP EVENT IS WINDING DOWN WITH RAIN/SNOW BAND QUICKLY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING EAST OF THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 6 PM. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MONONA/HARRISON...BUT LEAVE IN FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SHELBY/POTTAWATTAMIE FOR ONE MORE HOUR.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO A TRANSITION OF SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. LOW TONIGHT DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH...COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10
TO 22 BELOW ZERO. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO CRITERIA AROUND -20 LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SUB ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. STILL COLD THOUGH WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH ECMWF STILL ABOUT 6
HOURS QUICKER WITH THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THAN GFS/NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY.
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW STILL SEEMS FINE FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WHILE WE/RE JUST
WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A PLOWABLE SNOW STILL
SEEMS PROBABLY...WITH MAYBE 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80...SLIGHTLY
LESS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG...WITH THE SNOW SPREAD OUT OVER A 24
HOUR PERIOD. ALL IN ALL...NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSHES EAST. THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.
THERE IS SOME WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT COULD NOSE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL
FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND PSBLY
PAST MIDNIGHT...BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-
     055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252325
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FIRST PRECIP EVENT IS WINDING DOWN WITH RAIN/SNOW BAND QUICKLY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING EAST OF THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 6 PM. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MONONA/HARRISON...BUT LEAVE IN FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SHELBY/POTTAWATTAMIE FOR ONE MORE HOUR.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO A TRANSITION OF SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. LOW TONIGHT DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH...COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10
TO 22 BELOW ZERO. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO CRITERIA AROUND -20 LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SUB ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. STILL COLD THOUGH WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH ECMWF STILL ABOUT 6
HOURS QUICKER WITH THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THAN GFS/NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY.
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW STILL SEEMS FINE FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WHILE WE/RE JUST
WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A PLOWABLE SNOW STILL
SEEMS PROBABLY...WITH MAYBE 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80...SLIGHTLY
LESS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG...WITH THE SNOW SPREAD OUT OVER A 24
HOUR PERIOD. ALL IN ALL...NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSHES EAST. THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.
THERE IS SOME WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT COULD NOSE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL
FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND PSBLY
PAST MIDNIGHT...BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDINESS
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-
     055-056.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 252317 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
517 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND INTO ALASKA
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS PATTERN LED TO AN EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS....WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN COMING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ONE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOCALLY...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS FAR.
ADDITIONALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING CONDITIONS BRISK
WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND LOW 20S.
POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BECOME LESS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE 850MB AIR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TO BE AT -20C OR COLDER WHICH WILL BE DIPPING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS AIR WILL STAY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /WARMER TO COLDER/.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY TIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN
BEGINS RELAXING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO STAY
UP...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED. THE WINDS WILL START
TO FALL OFF BY MORNING...YET THINKING THEY WILL STAY AT LEAST
10KTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND LACK OF SNOW THAT FELL
TODAY...FELT LOWS NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PRIOR
FORECAST WHICH WAS TAKING A LARGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IMPACT.
WITHOUT THIS IMPACT IMPACT...WILL RELY ON THE PURE COLD AIRMASS
SO HAVE LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW 0F OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AROUND 10F IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF NEAR MORNING...BUT JUST HOW MUCH
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WIND CHILLS. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS YIELD MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO -20F TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEED CHANGING JUST 1 OR 2 KTS WILL CHANGE WIND
CHILLS AND COULD CERTAINLY BE TOO HIGH WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
FORECAST REACHING THE -20F WIND CHILL READING...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO BE CENTERED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS BUILDS SOUTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING SHALLOW MIXING DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS /GUSTS TO 15KTS-18KTS/ IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN FACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LOWS WITH READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THOSE AREAS. SO DESPITE THE AIRMASS
BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER /-10C TO -12C AT 850MB/ THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PROHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARE
AROUND -20C. GUIDANCE HAS LOWS BELOW ZERO /SINGLE DIGITS/ FOR ALL
BUT SW NEB WHERE LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LUCKILY NO SNOW PACK OR LOWS WOULD BE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...HOWEVER ARCTIC AIR IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE DEPARTING OF THE SE SFC HIGH. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE THAT DOES GET DRAWN NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. LOW CONFIDENCE AND HAVE INCLUDING
ONLY IN FAR SW NEB. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY/WAVES WILL EJECT ONTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
LOW HOLDING ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER THE WAVE STRENGTH/TRACK
VARIES GREATLY. MOST HAVE NEB ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 30S. TEMPS ALOFT BELOW ZERO C
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WAVES AND WILL REFINE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.

BY MID NEXT WEEK THE SW LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...IF INTO NEB AT ALL. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW AND LOW CIGS ACROSS WRN NEB AND PARTS OF NCNTL NEB.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END AND VFR SHOULD DEVELOP. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 252317 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
517 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND INTO ALASKA
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS PATTERN LED TO AN EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS....WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN COMING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ONE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOCALLY...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS FAR.
ADDITIONALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING CONDITIONS BRISK
WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND LOW 20S.
POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BECOME LESS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE 850MB AIR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TO BE AT -20C OR COLDER WHICH WILL BE DIPPING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS AIR WILL STAY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /WARMER TO COLDER/.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY TIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN
BEGINS RELAXING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO STAY
UP...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED. THE WINDS WILL START
TO FALL OFF BY MORNING...YET THINKING THEY WILL STAY AT LEAST
10KTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND LACK OF SNOW THAT FELL
TODAY...FELT LOWS NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PRIOR
FORECAST WHICH WAS TAKING A LARGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IMPACT.
WITHOUT THIS IMPACT IMPACT...WILL RELY ON THE PURE COLD AIRMASS
SO HAVE LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW 0F OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AROUND 10F IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF NEAR MORNING...BUT JUST HOW MUCH
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WIND CHILLS. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS YIELD MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO -20F TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEED CHANGING JUST 1 OR 2 KTS WILL CHANGE WIND
CHILLS AND COULD CERTAINLY BE TOO HIGH WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
FORECAST REACHING THE -20F WIND CHILL READING...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO BE CENTERED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS BUILDS SOUTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING SHALLOW MIXING DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS /GUSTS TO 15KTS-18KTS/ IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN FACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LOWS WITH READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THOSE AREAS. SO DESPITE THE AIRMASS
BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER /-10C TO -12C AT 850MB/ THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PROHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARE
AROUND -20C. GUIDANCE HAS LOWS BELOW ZERO /SINGLE DIGITS/ FOR ALL
BUT SW NEB WHERE LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LUCKILY NO SNOW PACK OR LOWS WOULD BE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...HOWEVER ARCTIC AIR IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE DEPARTING OF THE SE SFC HIGH. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE THAT DOES GET DRAWN NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. LOW CONFIDENCE AND HAVE INCLUDING
ONLY IN FAR SW NEB. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY/WAVES WILL EJECT ONTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
LOW HOLDING ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER THE WAVE STRENGTH/TRACK
VARIES GREATLY. MOST HAVE NEB ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 30S. TEMPS ALOFT BELOW ZERO C
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WAVES AND WILL REFINE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.

BY MID NEXT WEEK THE SW LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...IF INTO NEB AT ALL. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOWN ON SATELLITE NORTH OF THE BLACK
HILLS WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW AND LOW CIGS ACROSS WRN NEB AND PARTS OF NCNTL NEB.

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE FLURRIES ACROSS NCNTL NEB
THIS AFTN BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS EVENING THIS
SNOW SHOULD END AND VFR SHOULD DEVELOP. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KGID 252153
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN FALLING AND SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF KEAR...BUT THERE COULD
BE A STRAY FLURRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 252153
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN FALLING AND SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF KEAR...BUT THERE COULD
BE A STRAY FLURRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KLBF 252137
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
337 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND INTO ALASKA
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS PATTERN LED TO AN EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS....WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN COMING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ONE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOCALLY...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS FAR.
ADDITIONALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING CONDITIONS BRISK
WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND LOW 20S.
POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BECOME LESS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE 850MB AIR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TO BE AT -20C OR COLDER WHICH WILL BE DIPPING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS AIR WILL STAY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /WARMER TO COLDER/.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY TIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN
BEGINS RELAXING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO STAY
UP...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED. THE WINDS WILL START
TO FALL OFF BY MORNING...YET THINKING THEY WILL STAY AT LEAST
10KTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND LACK OF SNOW THAT FELL
TODAY...FELT LOWS NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PRIOR
FORECAST WHICH WAS TAKING A LARGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IMPACT.
WITHOUT THIS IMPACT IMPACT...WILL RELY ON THE PURE COLD AIRMASS
SO HAVE LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW 0F OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AROUND 10F IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF NEAR MORNING...BUT JUST HOW MUCH
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WIND CHILLS. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS YIELD MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO -20F TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEED CHANGING JUST 1 OR 2 KTS WILL CHANGE WIND
CHILLS AND COULD CERTAINLY BE TOO HIGH WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
FORECAST REACHING THE -20F WIND CHILL READING...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO BE CENTERED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS BUILDS SOUTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING SHALLOW MIXING DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS /GUSTS TO 15KTS-18KTS/ IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN FACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LOWS WITH READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THOSE AREAS. SO DESPITE THE AIRMASS
BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER /-10C TO -12C AT 850MB/ THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PROHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARE
AROUND -20C. GUIDANCE HAS LOWS BELOW ZERO /SINGLE DIGITS/ FOR ALL
BUT SW NEB WHERE LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LUCKILY NO SNOW PACK OR LOWS WOULD BE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...HOWEVER ARCTIC AIR IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE DEPARTING OF THE SE SFC HIGH. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE THAT DOES GET DRAWN NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. LOW CONFIDENCE AND HAVE INCLUDING
ONLY IN FAR SW NEB. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY/WAVES WILL EJECT ONTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
LOW HOLDING ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER THE WAVE STRENGTH/TRACK
VARIES GREATLY. MOST HAVE NEB ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 30S. TEMPS ALOFT BELOW ZERO C
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WAVES AND WILL REFINE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.

BY MID NEXT WEEK THE SW LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...IF INTO NEB AT ALL. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

DEALING WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. ALSO SEEING POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
WHERE IT HAS COOLED BELOW THE FREEZING POINT THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS SNOW AND ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE LIGHT...WITH THE WINDS
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2-3SM. CEILINGS
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IMPROVE SLIGHTLY...SO AFTER A PERIOD
OF LOWER CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST RISES CEILINGS UP
A BIT BY LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD COVER AND IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 252137
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
337 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TROUGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA...WITH RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC AND INTO ALASKA
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS PATTERN LED TO AN EXTENSIVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS....WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN COMING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...ONE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ONE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. LOCALLY...A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED
SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE OF NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH
HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THUS FAR.
ADDITIONALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING CONDITIONS BRISK
WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND LOW 20S.
POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE HAS BECOME LESS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE PROJECTING THE 850MB AIR OVER
NORTH DAKOTA TO BE AT -20C OR COLDER WHICH WILL BE DIPPING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS AIR WILL STAY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY SO LOOKING AT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A GRADIENT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST /WARMER TO COLDER/.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS FAIRLY TIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN
BEGINS RELAXING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH
THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO STAY
UP...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED. THE WINDS WILL START
TO FALL OFF BY MORNING...YET THINKING THEY WILL STAY AT LEAST
10KTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND LACK OF SNOW THAT FELL
TODAY...FELT LOWS NEEDED TO BE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PRIOR
FORECAST WHICH WAS TAKING A LARGER RADIATIONAL COOLING IMPACT.
WITHOUT THIS IMPACT IMPACT...WILL RELY ON THE PURE COLD AIRMASS
SO HAVE LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW 0F OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AROUND 10F IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NEBRASKA.
THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. AS WAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF NEAR MORNING...BUT JUST HOW MUCH
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WIND CHILLS. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS YIELD MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO -20F TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEED CHANGING JUST 1 OR 2 KTS WILL CHANGE WIND
CHILLS AND COULD CERTAINLY BE TOO HIGH WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
FORECAST REACHING THE -20F WIND CHILL READING...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...AND EXPECT IT TO BE CENTERED OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z FRIDAY. AS THIS BUILDS SOUTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING SHALLOW MIXING DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS /GUSTS TO 15KTS-18KTS/ IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN FACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LOWS WITH READINGS EXPECTED
IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDEST
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING THERE WILL BE
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE AND HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL
KEEP MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THOSE AREAS. SO DESPITE THE AIRMASS
BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER /-10C TO -12C AT 850MB/ THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PROHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
THURSDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CENTER ARE
AROUND -20C. GUIDANCE HAS LOWS BELOW ZERO /SINGLE DIGITS/ FOR ALL
BUT SW NEB WHERE LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO. FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LUCKILY NO SNOW PACK OR LOWS WOULD BE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...HOWEVER ARCTIC AIR IS
RECYCLED AROUND THE DEPARTING OF THE SE SFC HIGH. THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE THAT DOES GET DRAWN NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEB. LOW CONFIDENCE AND HAVE INCLUDING
ONLY IN FAR SW NEB. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM...HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SW...SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY/WAVES WILL EJECT ONTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
LOW HOLDING ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER THE WAVE STRENGTH/TRACK
VARIES GREATLY. MOST HAVE NEB ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 30S. TEMPS ALOFT BELOW ZERO C
AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WAVES AND WILL REFINE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS.

BY MID NEXT WEEK THE SW LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THIS TIME MODELS FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE LOW...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...IF INTO NEB AT ALL. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

DEALING WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. ALSO SEEING POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
WHERE IT HAS COOLED BELOW THE FREEZING POINT THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS SNOW AND ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE LIGHT...WITH THE WINDS
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2-3SM. CEILINGS
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IMPROVE SLIGHTLY...SO AFTER A PERIOD
OF LOWER CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST RISES CEILINGS UP
A BIT BY LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD COVER AND IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KOAX 252102
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FIRST PRECIP EVENT IS WINDING DOWN WITH RAIN/SNOW BAND QUICKLY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING EAST OF THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 6 PM. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MONONA/HARRISON...BUT LEAVE IN FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SHELBY/POTTAWATTAMIE FOR ONE MORE HOUR.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO A TRANSITION OF SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. LOW TONIGHT DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH...COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10
TO 22 BELOW ZERO. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO CRITERIA AROUND -20 LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SUB ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. STILL COLD THOUGH WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH ECMWF STILL ABOUT 6
HOURS QUICKER WITH THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THAN GFS/NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY.
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW STILL SEEMS FINE FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WHILE WE/RE JUST
WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A PLOWABLE SNOW STILL
SEEMS PROBABLY...WITH MAYBE 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80...SLIGHTLY
LESS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG...WITH THE SNOW SPREAD OUT OVER A 24
HOUR PERIOD. ALL IN ALL...NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSHES EAST. THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.
THERE IS SOME WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT COULD NOSE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL
FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE FIRST FEW HOURS OF TAF PERIOD...THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. KOFK...BAND OF SNOW IS ABOUT THROUGH THE SITE.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE. KOMA...FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO THE SITE AS IS THE
BEGINNING EDGE OF PCPN. RAIN EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A CHANGE OVER
TO RA/SN FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF...ONLY AN HOUR...WITH A FEW FLURRIES
LINGERING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND DRYING OUT
THEREAFTER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. KLNK...FRONT
EDGE OF PCPN BAND IS ALMOST TO THE SITE WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OF RA/SN MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. FOR ALL SITES...GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-
     055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ056-
     069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 252102
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FIRST PRECIP EVENT IS WINDING DOWN WITH RAIN/SNOW BAND QUICKLY
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST...MOVING EAST OF THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 6 PM. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MONONA/HARRISON...BUT LEAVE IN FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
SHELBY/POTTAWATTAMIE FOR ONE MORE HOUR.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO A TRANSITION OF SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. LOW TONIGHT DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH...COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10
TO 22 BELOW ZERO. THUS...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DROP TO CRITERIA AROUND -20 LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SUB ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 10 TO 18 BELOW ZERO...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. STILL COLD THOUGH WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH ECMWF STILL ABOUT 6
HOURS QUICKER WITH THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT THAN GFS/NAM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY.
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW STILL SEEMS FINE FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WHILE WE/RE JUST
WITHIN THE WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A PLOWABLE SNOW STILL
SEEMS PROBABLY...WITH MAYBE 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG I80...SLIGHTLY
LESS FURTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG...WITH THE SNOW SPREAD OUT OVER A 24
HOUR PERIOD. ALL IN ALL...NOT LOOKING LIKE A MAJOR SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN PUSHES EAST. THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN.
THERE IS SOME WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS THAT COULD NOSE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FOR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL
FURTHER REFINE THE FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

WILL OPT FOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE FIRST FEW HOURS OF TAF PERIOD...THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. KOFK...BAND OF SNOW IS ABOUT THROUGH THE SITE.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE. KOMA...FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO THE SITE AS IS THE
BEGINNING EDGE OF PCPN. RAIN EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A CHANGE OVER
TO RA/SN FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF...ONLY AN HOUR...WITH A FEW FLURRIES
LINGERING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND DRYING OUT
THEREAFTER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. KLNK...FRONT
EDGE OF PCPN BAND IS ALMOST TO THE SITE WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OF RA/SN MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. FOR ALL SITES...GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-031>034.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-
     055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ056-
     069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 251841
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1241 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO THE TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DROPPING QUICKER THAN HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED AS KVTN IS CURRENTLY
DOWN TO 18 DEGREES. SO HAVE AMENDED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO
TAKE A FASTER ADVANCE OF THE COLDER AIR INTO ACCOUNT.

RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE POCKETS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TRANSITIONING TO RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40S. RADAR ECHOES ARE QUITE LIGHT
SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH...IF ANY ACCUMULATION ACCEPT FOR PERHAPS
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE PINE RIDGE. FORCING WANES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT TO
CONTINUE TO SEE RADAR ECHOES WEAKEN AND DIMINISH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
DOES REMAIN POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS HAVE COOLED AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
KOFK TO KTIF TO KIEN. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN
COOLING THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN DROPS FROM THE
40S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND 20S. BEHIND THE FRONT ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS SWITCHED TO SNOW...WHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AREAS WILL STILL BE SEEING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...AND BEHIND IT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL. LOOKING AT HIGHS
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL. WHERE THE FRONT HAS
PASSED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE DAILY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NON-DIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

DEALING WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. ALSO SEEING POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
WHERE IT HAS COOLED BELOW THE FREEZING POINT THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS SNOW AND ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE LIGHT...WITH THE WINDS
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2-3SM. CEILINGS
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IMPROVE SLIGHTLY...SO AFTER A PERIOD
OF LOWER CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST RISES CEILINGS UP
A BIT BY LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD COVER AND IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 251841
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1241 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO THE TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DROPPING QUICKER THAN HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED AS KVTN IS CURRENTLY
DOWN TO 18 DEGREES. SO HAVE AMENDED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO
TAKE A FASTER ADVANCE OF THE COLDER AIR INTO ACCOUNT.

RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE POCKETS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TRANSITIONING TO RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40S. RADAR ECHOES ARE QUITE LIGHT
SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH...IF ANY ACCUMULATION ACCEPT FOR PERHAPS
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE PINE RIDGE. FORCING WANES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT TO
CONTINUE TO SEE RADAR ECHOES WEAKEN AND DIMINISH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
DOES REMAIN POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS HAVE COOLED AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
KOFK TO KTIF TO KIEN. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN
COOLING THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN DROPS FROM THE
40S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND 20S. BEHIND THE FRONT ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS SWITCHED TO SNOW...WHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AREAS WILL STILL BE SEEING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...AND BEHIND IT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL. LOOKING AT HIGHS
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL. WHERE THE FRONT HAS
PASSED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE DAILY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NON-DIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

DEALING WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. ALSO SEEING POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
WHERE IT HAS COOLED BELOW THE FREEZING POINT THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS SNOW AND ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE LIGHT...WITH THE WINDS
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2-3SM. CEILINGS
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IMPROVE SLIGHTLY...SO AFTER A PERIOD
OF LOWER CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST RISES CEILINGS UP
A BIT BY LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD COVER AND IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 251841
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1241 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO THE TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DROPPING QUICKER THAN HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED AS KVTN IS CURRENTLY
DOWN TO 18 DEGREES. SO HAVE AMENDED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO
TAKE A FASTER ADVANCE OF THE COLDER AIR INTO ACCOUNT.

RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE POCKETS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TRANSITIONING TO RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40S. RADAR ECHOES ARE QUITE LIGHT
SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH...IF ANY ACCUMULATION ACCEPT FOR PERHAPS
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE PINE RIDGE. FORCING WANES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT TO
CONTINUE TO SEE RADAR ECHOES WEAKEN AND DIMINISH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
DOES REMAIN POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS HAVE COOLED AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
KOFK TO KTIF TO KIEN. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN
COOLING THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN DROPS FROM THE
40S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND 20S. BEHIND THE FRONT ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS SWITCHED TO SNOW...WHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AREAS WILL STILL BE SEEING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...AND BEHIND IT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL. LOOKING AT HIGHS
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL. WHERE THE FRONT HAS
PASSED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE DAILY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NON-DIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

DEALING WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. ALSO SEEING POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
WHERE IT HAS COOLED BELOW THE FREEZING POINT THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS SNOW AND ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE LIGHT...WITH THE WINDS
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2-3SM. CEILINGS
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IMPROVE SLIGHTLY...SO AFTER A PERIOD
OF LOWER CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST RISES CEILINGS UP
A BIT BY LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD COVER AND IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 251841
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1241 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO THE TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
DROPPING QUICKER THAN HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED AS KVTN IS CURRENTLY
DOWN TO 18 DEGREES. SO HAVE AMENDED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO
TAKE A FASTER ADVANCE OF THE COLDER AIR INTO ACCOUNT.

RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE POCKETS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TRANSITIONING TO RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40S. RADAR ECHOES ARE QUITE LIGHT
SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH...IF ANY ACCUMULATION ACCEPT FOR PERHAPS
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE PINE RIDGE. FORCING WANES FOR
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT TO
CONTINUE TO SEE RADAR ECHOES WEAKEN AND DIMINISH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
DOES REMAIN POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS HAVE COOLED AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
KOFK TO KTIF TO KIEN. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN
COOLING THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN DROPS FROM THE
40S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND 20S. BEHIND THE FRONT ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS SWITCHED TO SNOW...WHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AREAS WILL STILL BE SEEING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...AND BEHIND IT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL. LOOKING AT HIGHS
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL. WHERE THE FRONT HAS
PASSED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE DAILY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NON-DIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

DEALING WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. ALSO SEEING POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
WHERE IT HAS COOLED BELOW THE FREEZING POINT THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS SNOW AND ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE LIGHT...WITH THE WINDS
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2-3SM. CEILINGS
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA IMPROVE SLIGHTLY...SO AFTER A PERIOD
OF LOWER CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST RISES CEILINGS UP
A BIT BY LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD COVER AND IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KGID 251733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN FALLING AND SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF KEAR...BUT THERE COULD
BE A STRAY FLURRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN FALLING AND SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF KEAR...BUT THERE COULD
BE A STRAY FLURRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN FALLING AND SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF KEAR...BUT THERE COULD
BE A STRAY FLURRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN FALLING AND SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF KEAR...BUT THERE COULD
BE A STRAY FLURRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN FALLING AND SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF KEAR...BUT THERE COULD
BE A STRAY FLURRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251733
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS
BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT BEHIND THE MAIN BAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN FALLING AND SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF KEAR...BUT THERE COULD
BE A STRAY FLURRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KOAX 251730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE TYPE AND EXTENT OF PRECIP AS SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS APPROACHING CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING. JUST
PLAIN COLD FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOATA AT 08Z
WITH PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP
SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PRECIP SHIELD SOUTH TODAY WITH PRIMARY BAND
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE
AND ALSO REMOVED THE TWO SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH BETTER QPF EAST OF THE AREA.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
AND BACKED OFF FURTHER ON PRECIP AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AND DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP...WHICH COULD INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN...IS POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.

THE ARCTIC AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL COVER THE COLD IN HWO FOR NOW BUT ADVISORY LOOKS
LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. SLOW
WARMING???? ON FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL TRENDS. WEEKEND SYSTEM STILL KEEPS MAIN
PRECIP AXIS TO THE SOUTH WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE CWA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
MAIN WAVE COMES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE FIRST FEW HOURS OF TAF PERIOD...THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. KOFK...BAND OF SNOW IS ABOUT THROUGH THE SITE.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE. KOMA...FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO THE SITE AS IS THE
BEGINNING EDGE OF PCPN. RAIN EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A CHANGE OVER
TO RA/SN FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF...ONLY AN HOUR...WITH A FEW FLURRIES
LINGERING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND DRYING OUT
THEREAFTER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. KLNK...FRONT
EDGE OF PCPN BAND IS ALMOST TO THE SITE WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OF RA/SN MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. FOR ALL SITES...GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 251730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE TYPE AND EXTENT OF PRECIP AS SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS APPROACHING CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING. JUST
PLAIN COLD FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOATA AT 08Z
WITH PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP
SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PRECIP SHIELD SOUTH TODAY WITH PRIMARY BAND
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE
AND ALSO REMOVED THE TWO SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH BETTER QPF EAST OF THE AREA.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
AND BACKED OFF FURTHER ON PRECIP AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AND DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP...WHICH COULD INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN...IS POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.

THE ARCTIC AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL COVER THE COLD IN HWO FOR NOW BUT ADVISORY LOOKS
LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. SLOW
WARMING???? ON FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL TRENDS. WEEKEND SYSTEM STILL KEEPS MAIN
PRECIP AXIS TO THE SOUTH WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE CWA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
MAIN WAVE COMES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE FIRST FEW HOURS OF TAF PERIOD...THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. KOFK...BAND OF SNOW IS ABOUT THROUGH THE SITE.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE. KOMA...FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO THE SITE AS IS THE
BEGINNING EDGE OF PCPN. RAIN EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A CHANGE OVER
TO RA/SN FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF...ONLY AN HOUR...WITH A FEW FLURRIES
LINGERING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND DRYING OUT
THEREAFTER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. KLNK...FRONT
EDGE OF PCPN BAND IS ALMOST TO THE SITE WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OF RA/SN MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. FOR ALL SITES...GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 251730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE TYPE AND EXTENT OF PRECIP AS SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS APPROACHING CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING. JUST
PLAIN COLD FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOATA AT 08Z
WITH PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP
SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PRECIP SHIELD SOUTH TODAY WITH PRIMARY BAND
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE
AND ALSO REMOVED THE TWO SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH BETTER QPF EAST OF THE AREA.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
AND BACKED OFF FURTHER ON PRECIP AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AND DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP...WHICH COULD INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN...IS POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.

THE ARCTIC AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL COVER THE COLD IN HWO FOR NOW BUT ADVISORY LOOKS
LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. SLOW
WARMING???? ON FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL TRENDS. WEEKEND SYSTEM STILL KEEPS MAIN
PRECIP AXIS TO THE SOUTH WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE CWA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
MAIN WAVE COMES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE FIRST FEW HOURS OF TAF PERIOD...THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. KOFK...BAND OF SNOW IS ABOUT THROUGH THE SITE.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE. KOMA...FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO THE SITE AS IS THE
BEGINNING EDGE OF PCPN. RAIN EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A CHANGE OVER
TO RA/SN FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF...ONLY AN HOUR...WITH A FEW FLURRIES
LINGERING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND DRYING OUT
THEREAFTER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. KLNK...FRONT
EDGE OF PCPN BAND IS ALMOST TO THE SITE WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OF RA/SN MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. FOR ALL SITES...GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 251730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE TYPE AND EXTENT OF PRECIP AS SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS APPROACHING CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING. JUST
PLAIN COLD FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOATA AT 08Z
WITH PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP
SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PRECIP SHIELD SOUTH TODAY WITH PRIMARY BAND
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE
AND ALSO REMOVED THE TWO SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH BETTER QPF EAST OF THE AREA.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
AND BACKED OFF FURTHER ON PRECIP AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AND DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP...WHICH COULD INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN...IS POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.

THE ARCTIC AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL COVER THE COLD IN HWO FOR NOW BUT ADVISORY LOOKS
LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. SLOW
WARMING???? ON FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL TRENDS. WEEKEND SYSTEM STILL KEEPS MAIN
PRECIP AXIS TO THE SOUTH WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE CWA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
MAIN WAVE COMES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE FIRST FEW HOURS OF TAF PERIOD...THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. KOFK...BAND OF SNOW IS ABOUT THROUGH THE SITE.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE. KOMA...FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO THE SITE AS IS THE
BEGINNING EDGE OF PCPN. RAIN EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A CHANGE OVER
TO RA/SN FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF...ONLY AN HOUR...WITH A FEW FLURRIES
LINGERING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND DRYING OUT
THEREAFTER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. KLNK...FRONT
EDGE OF PCPN BAND IS ALMOST TO THE SITE WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OF RA/SN MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. FOR ALL SITES...GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 251730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE TYPE AND EXTENT OF PRECIP AS SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS APPROACHING CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING. JUST
PLAIN COLD FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOATA AT 08Z
WITH PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP
SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PRECIP SHIELD SOUTH TODAY WITH PRIMARY BAND
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE
AND ALSO REMOVED THE TWO SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH BETTER QPF EAST OF THE AREA.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
AND BACKED OFF FURTHER ON PRECIP AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AND DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP...WHICH COULD INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN...IS POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.

THE ARCTIC AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL COVER THE COLD IN HWO FOR NOW BUT ADVISORY LOOKS
LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. SLOW
WARMING???? ON FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL TRENDS. WEEKEND SYSTEM STILL KEEPS MAIN
PRECIP AXIS TO THE SOUTH WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE CWA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
MAIN WAVE COMES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE FIRST FEW HOURS OF TAF PERIOD...THEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. KOFK...BAND OF SNOW IS ABOUT THROUGH THE SITE.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE. KOMA...FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO THE SITE AS IS THE
BEGINNING EDGE OF PCPN. RAIN EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A CHANGE OVER
TO RA/SN FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF...ONLY AN HOUR...WITH A FEW FLURRIES
LINGERING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND DRYING OUT
THEREAFTER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. KLNK...FRONT
EDGE OF PCPN BAND IS ALMOST TO THE SITE WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OF RA/SN MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER. FOR ALL SITES...GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 251557 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
957 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
DOES REMAIN POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS HAVE COOLED AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
KOFK TO KTIF TO KIEN. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN
COOLING THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN DROPS FROM THE
40S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND 20S. BEHIND THE FRONT ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS SWITCHED TO SNOW...WHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AREAS WILL STILL BE SEEING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...AND BEHIND IT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL. LOOKING AT HIGHS
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL. WHERE THE FRONT HAS
PASSED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE DAILY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACKHILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NON-DIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS.
HAVE INCLUDED AT KLBF EARLY WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED SHEAR. MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 251557 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
957 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
DOES REMAIN POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS HAVE COOLED AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
KOFK TO KTIF TO KIEN. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN
COOLING THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN DROPS FROM THE
40S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND 20S. BEHIND THE FRONT ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS SWITCHED TO SNOW...WHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AREAS WILL STILL BE SEEING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...AND BEHIND IT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL. LOOKING AT HIGHS
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL. WHERE THE FRONT HAS
PASSED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE DAILY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACKHILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NON-DIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS.
HAVE INCLUDED AT KLBF EARLY WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED SHEAR. MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 251557 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
957 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
DOES REMAIN POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS HAVE COOLED AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
KOFK TO KTIF TO KIEN. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN
COOLING THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN DROPS FROM THE
40S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND 20S. BEHIND THE FRONT ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS SWITCHED TO SNOW...WHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AREAS WILL STILL BE SEEING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...AND BEHIND IT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL. LOOKING AT HIGHS
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL. WHERE THE FRONT HAS
PASSED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE DAILY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACKHILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NON-DIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS.
HAVE INCLUDED AT KLBF EARLY WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED SHEAR. MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 251557 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
957 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
DOES REMAIN POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS HAVE COOLED AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
KOFK TO KTIF TO KIEN. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN
COOLING THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN DROPS FROM THE
40S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEENS AND 20S. BEHIND THE FRONT ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS SWITCHED TO SNOW...WHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AREAS WILL STILL BE SEEING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY...AND BEHIND IT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL. LOOKING AT HIGHS
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO FALL. WHERE THE FRONT HAS
PASSED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE DAILY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACKHILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NON-DIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS.
HAVE INCLUDED AT KLBF EARLY WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED SHEAR. MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER









000
FXUS63 KGID 251328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 251328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 251328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KLBF 251237 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACKHILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NONDIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS.
HAVE INCLUDED AT KLBF EARLY WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED SHEAR. MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 251237 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACKHILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NONDIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS.
HAVE INCLUDED AT KLBF EARLY WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED SHEAR. MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 251237 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACKHILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NONDIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS.
HAVE INCLUDED AT KLBF EARLY WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED SHEAR. MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 251237 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACKHILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NONDIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS.
HAVE INCLUDED AT KLBF EARLY WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED SHEAR. MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 251237 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO MOVE LIGHT RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. FRESHENED UP
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACKHILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NONDIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS.
HAVE INCLUDED AT KLBF EARLY WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED SHEAR. MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 251211 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
611 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACKHILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NONDIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS.
HAVE INCLUDED AT KLBF EARLY WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED SHEAR. MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 251211 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
611 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACKHILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NONDIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS.
HAVE INCLUDED AT KLBF EARLY WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED SHEAR. MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 251211 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
611 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACKHILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NONDIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS.
HAVE INCLUDED AT KLBF EARLY WITH A DIRECTION AND SPEED SHEAR. MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KGID 251134
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 251134
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 251134
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 251134
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20
RANGE FOR THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED
THE NAM FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS STAYING UP A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR
NORTHEAST NOT BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY
VERY WELL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A
LITTLE MORE SKY COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE.
WIND SPEED COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
NEARER...MAYBE AS CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND
TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WE COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR
-10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED
DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE
WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR US WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF
ENERGY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE
THAN ONE ROUND OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK
WOULD PLACE MORE SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL
KNOW...THINGS MAY TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE
3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT
CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION
...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD
GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED
GRIDS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING
SNOW ON THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO EARLY MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAY: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 18Z WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
VFR SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY SOME RA/SN SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. THE CERTAINTY OF PRECIP
REDUCING THE VSBY TO MVFR OR LOWER IS NOT AS HIGH AS EARLIER. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR SN...CONFIDENCE IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A LOW VSBY IN THE TAF. WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS AS WE MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N AND GUST 35-42 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: STRONG N WINDS CONT BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
06Z. MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SCT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KOAX 251132
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE TYPE AND EXTENT OF PRECIP AS SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS APPROACHING CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING. JUST
PLAIN COLD FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOATA AT 08Z
WITH PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP
SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PRECIP SHIELD SOUTH TODAY WITH PRIMARY BAND
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE
AND ALSO REMOVED THE TWO SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH BETTER QPF EAST OF THE AREA.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
AND BACKED OFF FURTHER ON PRECIP AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AND DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP...WHICH COULD INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN...IS POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.

THE ARCTIC AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL COVER THE COLD IN HWO FOR NOW BUT ADVISORY LOOKS
LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. SLOW
WARMING???? ON FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL TRENDS. WEEKEND SYSTEM STILL KEEPS MAIN
PRECIP AXIS TO THE SOUTH WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE CWA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
MAIN WAVE COMES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SFC CDFNT WILL MOV SOUTHEAST THRU ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING ALONG WITH GUSTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF -RA AT KOFK/KLNK AND
A MIX OF RA/SN AT KOMA. SOME MVFR VISBY IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO AT KOMA WITH THE MIX. WE DO EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 SITES
FROM LATE MRNG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIFTING TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-
     034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CST
     THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 251132
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE TYPE AND EXTENT OF PRECIP AS SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS APPROACHING CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING. JUST
PLAIN COLD FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOATA AT 08Z
WITH PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP
SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PRECIP SHIELD SOUTH TODAY WITH PRIMARY BAND
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE
AND ALSO REMOVED THE TWO SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH BETTER QPF EAST OF THE AREA.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
AND BACKED OFF FURTHER ON PRECIP AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AND DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP...WHICH COULD INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN...IS POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.

THE ARCTIC AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL COVER THE COLD IN HWO FOR NOW BUT ADVISORY LOOKS
LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. SLOW
WARMING???? ON FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL TRENDS. WEEKEND SYSTEM STILL KEEPS MAIN
PRECIP AXIS TO THE SOUTH WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE CWA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
MAIN WAVE COMES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SFC CDFNT WILL MOV SOUTHEAST THRU ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING ALONG WITH GUSTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF -RA AT KOFK/KLNK AND
A MIX OF RA/SN AT KOMA. SOME MVFR VISBY IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO AT KOMA WITH THE MIX. WE DO EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 SITES
FROM LATE MRNG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIFTING TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-
     034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CST
     THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KGID 251105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
505 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20 RANGE FOR
THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST
AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED THE NAM FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP
A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR NORTHEAST NOT
BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY VERY WELL
HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A LITTLE MORE SKY
COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY
WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE. WIND SPEED
COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN
THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES NEARER...MAYBE AS
CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND TO DROP OFF QUITE A
BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WE
COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE
CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR -10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL
TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE
CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY
COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR US
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE THAN ONE ROUND
OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD PLACE MORE
SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL KNOW...THINGS MAY
TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE 3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I
DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR
US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME
TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS
WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
MONDAY...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED GRIDS.
THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING SNOW ON
THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY
MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 251105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
505 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANDING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HANG ON TO SOME STRATUS A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT OUR INITIALIZED
SUPERBLEND ADVERTISES AND I HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -165 TO -20 RANGE FOR
THURSDAY...WE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST
AREAS. WE MAY MAKE IT TO AROUND 20 IN OUR SOUTH. I USED THE NAM FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS IS DEPENDING ON WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP
A BIT. GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES SOME AREA IN OUR NORTHEAST NOT
BREAKING INTO THE TEENS FOR HIGHS...AND THIS MAY VERY WELL
HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY IF WIND SPEED DROPS AND WE GET A LITTLE MORE SKY
COVER HANGING AROUND.

THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY
WILL FEEL QUITE COLD. WIND CHILLS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANOTHER DIVE. WIND SPEED
COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN
THE -15 TO -20 RANGE IN OUR NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES NEARER...MAYBE AS
CLOSE AS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND TO DROP OFF QUITE A
BIT AND WITH ANTICIPATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WE
COULD WIND UP BEING BELOW ZERO FOR A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE
CWA. ORD COULD REALLY TANK TO NEAR -10. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ALL
TRENDING COLDER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND I HAVE
CONTINUED THIS TREND. I BUMPED DOWN TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY
COMPARED TO SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. WE MAY HOLD NEAR ZERO IN OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHERE WE MAY HAVE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEED.

NUMERICAL MODELS ALL TEND TO KEEP US DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE WEEKEND.

A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND CONGRUENT WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. THIS SETS UP A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR US
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPULSES OF ENERGY FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US MORE THAN ONE ROUND
OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD PLACE MORE
SNOW CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT AS WE ALL KNOW...THINGS MAY
TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...ESPECIALLY AS WE ARE 3 TO 5 DAYS AWAY. I
DID BUMP UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT CONSIDERABLE QPF FOR
US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. THIS STILL LOOKS AT LEAST LIKE A
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION...BUT WE STILL HAVE SOME
TIME BEFORE THIS ARRIVES AND WE SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THIS
WITH TIME.

I WENT CLOSER TO CONSRAW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
MONDAY...WHICH WAS GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY WHICH BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM INITIALIZED GRIDS.
THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING SNOW ON
THE GROUND. I DO NOT SEE AN END TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ANYTIME SOON...WITH WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY
MARCH UNDER THIS CONSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 250955
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 250955
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 250955
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 250955
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FOLLOWED BY HOWLING N
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...

ALOFT: SEVERAL WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL CROSS THE FCST
AREA THRU TONIGHT IN NW FLOW. THE LEAD TROF WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
WX- MAKER WHICH WILL MOVE THRU 15Z-00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THRU THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS IA TO LOW PRES OVER SD AND THEN NW INTO CANADA.
THIS LOW WILL HEAD SE ACROSS NEB TODAY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT
WILL SURGE S TODAY AND WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET.
ARCTIC HIGH PRES THEN BEGINS BUILDING IN TONIGHT FROM CANADA.

EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE FROM THE NW.
GENERALLY MILD WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FRZG MOST LOCATIONS.

HAZARDS: N WINDS WILL GUST 45-50 MPH 12PM-12AM. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -20F LATE TONIGHT...N OF I-80.

TODAY: NOT SURE HOW IT UNFOLDS. WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT THE
STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA...ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT IN THE WAA. SPOTTY ECHOES HAVE BEEN INCREASE THRU THE
NIGHT SW OF THE LOW THRU THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS. SO FAR
HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE STATION REPORT SPRINKLES UPSTREAM.

OVERALL EXPECT A M/CLOUDY DAY OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND BECOMING
M/CLOUDY OVER N-CNTRL KS. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A
NARROW/BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY-FORCED SHWRS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...
PRIMARILY N OF HWY 6. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIP.

THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FCST IS TEMPS. WE COULD BE
TOO COOL. MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT CYCLES OF THE RAP SUGGEST 50F UP TO
I-80 AND NEARING 60 OVER N-CNTRL KS. I COULD ONLY ENVISION THAT
HAPPENING WITH FULL SUN AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED. USED CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS FOR HIGHS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHS MORE
INTO THE 50S OVER N-CNTRL KS IN COORDINATION WITH KS OFFICES.

TEMPS WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON N OF I-80 BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS: BLENDED THE 18Z/00Z MAV MOS 50-50. N WINDS WILL HOWL...
GUSTING 45-50 MPH IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/CAA BEHIND THE LOW. 6
HR PRES RISES OF 12 MB ARE LIKELY.

TONIGHT: CLOUDY...WINDY AND TURNING VERY COLD. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND LINGERING WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -20F.

CAA WILL RESULT IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE LINGERING
STRATUS WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE IDEAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER. SO KEPT
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KLBF 250951
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SOME ECHOES GETTING ORGANIZED ON KLNX 88D EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO
REPORTS OF RAIN AND DOR CAMERAS NOT SHOWING ANYTHING YET. NATIONAL
RADAR SHOWING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND JUST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. NAM SOLUTION HAS COME IN MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM YANKTON
TO PHILLIP TO DICKINSON ND. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
TEENS AND 20S AND TO THE SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS.
SURFACE LOW OVER BLACKHILLS THIS MORNING. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND DRAG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY BY NOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. OVERCAST NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +6C
THIS MORNING TO -21C BY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE USED A NONDIURNAL
TREND AFTER 18Z THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEFORE NOON AND THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT
PINE RIDGE WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 40F. PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE LOW...AND THEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE PANHANDLE. WITH
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST. VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL TO THE LOW TEENS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW WITH
STATIONS ONLY TOUCHING MINIMUMS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/TONIGHTS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR OMAHA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS HIGHS IS VERY COLD...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -22C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF
THERE WERE SNOW COVER...HIGHS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AROUND ZERO OR
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS...BUT DUE TO THE BARE
GROUND AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH 10 ABOVE OR SO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
UPPER TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. STILL COLD FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW RECYCLES THE COLD AIRMASS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINING BRISK THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE/PV ANOMALY IS FORECASTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND BOTTOM
OUT NEAR OR IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAM
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THIS
OCCURS...CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE ASSOCIATED AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION RESPONSE...WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THE LIFT IS QUITE DEEP...AND SO IS THE
MOISTURE...WITH BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS /GULF
MOISTURE/ THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE POINTED AT AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
INCREASE SNOW CHANCES ANY THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL EXTEND CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS MORE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE /30 PERCENT OR SO/ FOR NOW.
1) WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP GOOD JET DYNAMICS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION.
2) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN
CANADA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN THE WEAKER
GFS...MORE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND ALLOWS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO BE MORE POSITIVE AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GFS WOULD
BE THE SNOWIER/WETTER SOLUTION...AND HAS A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW
WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ALSO SUGGESTS THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
THROUGH KANSAS. FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
NOW...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. WILL WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE JET DYNAMICS ETC. COULD MEAN HEAVY SNOW FOR PART OR ALL OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY 12Z-21Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED IN
SNOW...MAINLY NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2. VFR/MVFR IS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KOAX 250857
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
257 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE TYPE AND EXTENT OF PRECIP AS SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS APPROACHING CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING. JUST
PLAIN COLD FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOATA AT 08Z
WITH PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP
SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PRECIP SHIELD SOUTH TODAY WITH PRIMARY BAND
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE
AND ALSO REMOVED THE TWO SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH BETTER QPF EAST OF THE AREA.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
AND BACKED OFF FURTHER ON PRECIP AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AND DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP...WHICH COULD INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN...IS POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.

THE ARCTIC AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL COVER THE COLD IN HWO FOR NOW BUT ADVISORY LOOKS
LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. SLOW
WARMING???? ON FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL TRENDS. WEEKEND SYSTEM STILL KEEPS MAIN
PRECIP AXIS TO THE SOUTH WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE CWA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
MAIN WAVE COMES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AND MIXED PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP. COLD AIR
MOVING IN WILL CHANGE THE PCPN TO SNOW...AND EXPECT THAT IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN NORTH WITH GUSTS TO 39 KNOTS OR
MORE AFTER THE WIND SHIFTS TO NORTH. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WITH STRONG WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ015-034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ043.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CST
     THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 250857
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
257 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE TYPE AND EXTENT OF PRECIP AS SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THEN COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS APPROACHING CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING. JUST
PLAIN COLD FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOATA AT 08Z
WITH PRIMARY BAND OF PRECIP FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP
SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PRECIP SHIELD SOUTH TODAY WITH PRIMARY BAND
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE
AND ALSO REMOVED THE TWO SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES AS TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH BETTER QPF EAST OF THE AREA.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
AND BACKED OFF FURTHER ON PRECIP AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AND DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIP...WHICH COULD INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN...IS POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE.

THE ARCTIC AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL COVER THE COLD IN HWO FOR NOW BUT ADVISORY LOOKS
LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THURSDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. SLOW
WARMING???? ON FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO GENERAL TRENDS. WEEKEND SYSTEM STILL KEEPS MAIN
PRECIP AXIS TO THE SOUTH WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE CWA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
MAIN WAVE COMES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AND MIXED PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP. COLD AIR
MOVING IN WILL CHANGE THE PCPN TO SNOW...AND EXPECT THAT IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN NORTH WITH GUSTS TO 39 KNOTS OR
MORE AFTER THE WIND SHIFTS TO NORTH. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WITH STRONG WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ015-034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR IAZ043.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CST
     THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KGID 250559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL
RACE SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO OUR BRIEF WARM UP
THAT WE EXPERIENCED TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE COOLER WEATHER WILL
BRING FORTH A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE COLD FRONT
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. THE SFC
LOW WILL JUST BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND
DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM AROUND
BROKEN BOW AT DAY BREAK...TO SMITH CENTER KANSAS BY NOON. THE 12Z
AND 18Z NAM40 INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (900-850MB)
SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.01 TO 0.10
INCHES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL QUICKLY SATURATE TO BELOW FREEZING
AND THUS IT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ALL SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A WARM LAYER RIGHT NEAR THE SFC...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO
MOST AREAS SEEING A LITTLE RAIN INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
AND SNOW AS THE NEAR SFC AREA SATURATES AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN.
LOCATIONS PRIMARILY FROM THE TRI CITIES AND TO THE NORTHEAST COULD
ALSO SEE A TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH PERHAPS A 1 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF WET SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY RANGING FROM A
TRACE UP TO 1 INCH. THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE FORCING THROUGH THE DAY AND EXIT OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ALTHOUGH IT`S STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO TALK ANY SPECIFIC
TIMING/AMOUNTS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...THERE IS LITTLE SECRET THAT
THE "HIGHLIGHT" OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD ARE THE VARIOUS MEASURABLE
SNOW CHANCES THAT NOT ONLY INCLUDE THE WEEKEND AS BEFORE...BUT NOW
EXTEND AS FAR OUT AS MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL...AS IT NOW APPEARS THE
SNOW CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW "WAVES" WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LULL OR TWO IN BETWEEN. WE ARE STILL 24-48 HOURS AWAY FROM
PUBLISHING OFFICIAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS WEEKEND IN OUR PRODUCTS
AND SOCIAL MEDIA...BUT IF (AND YES A BIG "IF") THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR CURRENT TRENDS...WE
WOULD BE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 2-6" POTENTIAL FOR THE SATURDAY-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WHOLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. AGAIN THOUGH...CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS DAY 4-6 TIME RANGE...AS OTHER MODELS SUCH AS
THE LATEST 12Z CANADIAN GEM MODEL CONTINUES TO OFFER A LESS-
CONCERNING PICTURE WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEEKEND SNOW POTENTIAL
FOCUSING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. BECAUSE NOT EVERY MODEL IS IN
UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT...POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE
STILL NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT...ALTHOUGH SOME "LIKELY" 60S
ARE NOW ADVERTISED MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE ON
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. IN OTHER WORDS...THIS WEEKEND CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING...BUT IT`S STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO HIT THE WINTRY
"PANIC BUTTON" JUST YET.

OF MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN THE WEEKEND-MONDAY SNOWFALL
DETAILS ...TEMPERATURE-WISE THINGS ARE GOING TO REMAIN SOLIDLY
BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR LATE FEB-EARLY MARCH ARE WELL
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
OVERALL-COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH
ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER 20S PREVAILING MOST AREAS FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND
THEN MAYBE...JUST MAYBE A RETURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD 30S FOR
MONDAY-TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NO LATE NIGHTS/MORNINGS
THAT APPEAR TO BE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CANDIDATES (-20 OR
COLDER)...BUT THERE COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF -15 TO -20 VALUES
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH LIGHTER
WIND MOST PLACES SHOULD DROP NO COLDER THAN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE.

TAKING A BIT BRIEFER-THAN-USUAL LOOK AT THE DETAILS IN 12-24 HOURS
BLOCKS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NOT TO COMPLETELY IGNORE "SYSTEM NUMBER 1" THIS
WEEK AS DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...BUT BY SUNSET
THE ONLY THING THAT SHOULD POSSIBLY BE LINGERING IS A CHANCE OF
NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES...WITH THIS FLURRY POTENTIAL ENHANCED IF
IN FACT A FAIRLY SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT IN A FAVORABLY COLD DENDRITIC TEMPERATURE LAYER. IN
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...LINGERED A CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE BIGGER
STORY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE SHARPLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE CWA ON
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL AVERAGE
A BRISK 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30+ MPH AT TIMES. ACTUAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE AIMED SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST NEB
ZONES...WITH MORE-SO 10-13 IN KS ZONES. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 TO -20 WILL BE COMMON LATE IN
THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH/EAST OF THE TRI CITIES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN A
PRECIP-FREE BUT VERY COLD 24 HOURS...AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS ITS CORE SLIDES BY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH ONLY
TEENS IN MOST AREAS AND MAYBE LOW 20S SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS WILL BE
MADE WORSE BY CONTINUED STEADY NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED GENERALLY
15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BREEZES THURSDAY NIGHT TURN LIGHTER
AS THEY SHIFT TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...BUT ACTUAL LOW TEMPS ARE EVEN
COLDER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE AND GENERALLY AIMED A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: AGAIN KEPT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN A
FEW FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BREEZES WILL KEEP QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE HIGHS POSSIBLY
NUDGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY INTO THE LOW-MID 20S
MOST PLACES.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT: HAVE LARGELY ALREADY COVERED THIS
48-HOUR MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN ABOVE...SO PLEASE REFER TO IT
AGAIN. SNOW COULD VERY WELL OVERSPREAD THE CWA IN EARNEST DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BLOSSOMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BETTER SNOW CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO FAVOR SOUTHERN ZONES
MORE SO THAN NORTHERN ONES.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: IN A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WE NOW HAVE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS IMPACTFUL AS THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY DAYTIME: KEPT THIS LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS
VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE MID 30S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 250559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL
RACE SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO OUR BRIEF WARM UP
THAT WE EXPERIENCED TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE COOLER WEATHER WILL
BRING FORTH A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE COLD FRONT
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. THE SFC
LOW WILL JUST BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND
DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM AROUND
BROKEN BOW AT DAY BREAK...TO SMITH CENTER KANSAS BY NOON. THE 12Z
AND 18Z NAM40 INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (900-850MB)
SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.01 TO 0.10
INCHES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL QUICKLY SATURATE TO BELOW FREEZING
AND THUS IT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ALL SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A WARM LAYER RIGHT NEAR THE SFC...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO
MOST AREAS SEEING A LITTLE RAIN INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
AND SNOW AS THE NEAR SFC AREA SATURATES AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN.
LOCATIONS PRIMARILY FROM THE TRI CITIES AND TO THE NORTHEAST COULD
ALSO SEE A TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH PERHAPS A 1 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF WET SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY RANGING FROM A
TRACE UP TO 1 INCH. THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE FORCING THROUGH THE DAY AND EXIT OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ALTHOUGH IT`S STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO TALK ANY SPECIFIC
TIMING/AMOUNTS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...THERE IS LITTLE SECRET THAT
THE "HIGHLIGHT" OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD ARE THE VARIOUS MEASURABLE
SNOW CHANCES THAT NOT ONLY INCLUDE THE WEEKEND AS BEFORE...BUT NOW
EXTEND AS FAR OUT AS MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL...AS IT NOW APPEARS THE
SNOW CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW "WAVES" WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LULL OR TWO IN BETWEEN. WE ARE STILL 24-48 HOURS AWAY FROM
PUBLISHING OFFICIAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS WEEKEND IN OUR PRODUCTS
AND SOCIAL MEDIA...BUT IF (AND YES A BIG "IF") THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR CURRENT TRENDS...WE
WOULD BE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 2-6" POTENTIAL FOR THE SATURDAY-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WHOLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. AGAIN THOUGH...CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS DAY 4-6 TIME RANGE...AS OTHER MODELS SUCH AS
THE LATEST 12Z CANADIAN GEM MODEL CONTINUES TO OFFER A LESS-
CONCERNING PICTURE WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEEKEND SNOW POTENTIAL
FOCUSING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. BECAUSE NOT EVERY MODEL IS IN
UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT...POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE
STILL NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT...ALTHOUGH SOME "LIKELY" 60S
ARE NOW ADVERTISED MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE ON
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. IN OTHER WORDS...THIS WEEKEND CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING...BUT IT`S STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO HIT THE WINTRY
"PANIC BUTTON" JUST YET.

OF MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN THE WEEKEND-MONDAY SNOWFALL
DETAILS ...TEMPERATURE-WISE THINGS ARE GOING TO REMAIN SOLIDLY
BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR LATE FEB-EARLY MARCH ARE WELL
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
OVERALL-COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH
ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER 20S PREVAILING MOST AREAS FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND
THEN MAYBE...JUST MAYBE A RETURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD 30S FOR
MONDAY-TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NO LATE NIGHTS/MORNINGS
THAT APPEAR TO BE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CANDIDATES (-20 OR
COLDER)...BUT THERE COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF -15 TO -20 VALUES
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH LIGHTER
WIND MOST PLACES SHOULD DROP NO COLDER THAN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE.

TAKING A BIT BRIEFER-THAN-USUAL LOOK AT THE DETAILS IN 12-24 HOURS
BLOCKS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NOT TO COMPLETELY IGNORE "SYSTEM NUMBER 1" THIS
WEEK AS DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...BUT BY SUNSET
THE ONLY THING THAT SHOULD POSSIBLY BE LINGERING IS A CHANCE OF
NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES...WITH THIS FLURRY POTENTIAL ENHANCED IF
IN FACT A FAIRLY SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT IN A FAVORABLY COLD DENDRITIC TEMPERATURE LAYER. IN
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...LINGERED A CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE BIGGER
STORY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE SHARPLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE CWA ON
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL AVERAGE
A BRISK 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30+ MPH AT TIMES. ACTUAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE AIMED SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST NEB
ZONES...WITH MORE-SO 10-13 IN KS ZONES. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 TO -20 WILL BE COMMON LATE IN
THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH/EAST OF THE TRI CITIES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN A
PRECIP-FREE BUT VERY COLD 24 HOURS...AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS ITS CORE SLIDES BY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH ONLY
TEENS IN MOST AREAS AND MAYBE LOW 20S SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS WILL BE
MADE WORSE BY CONTINUED STEADY NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED GENERALLY
15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BREEZES THURSDAY NIGHT TURN LIGHTER
AS THEY SHIFT TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...BUT ACTUAL LOW TEMPS ARE EVEN
COLDER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE AND GENERALLY AIMED A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: AGAIN KEPT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN A
FEW FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BREEZES WILL KEEP QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE HIGHS POSSIBLY
NUDGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY INTO THE LOW-MID 20S
MOST PLACES.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT: HAVE LARGELY ALREADY COVERED THIS
48-HOUR MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN ABOVE...SO PLEASE REFER TO IT
AGAIN. SNOW COULD VERY WELL OVERSPREAD THE CWA IN EARNEST DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BLOSSOMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BETTER SNOW CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO FAVOR SOUTHERN ZONES
MORE SO THAN NORTHERN ONES.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: IN A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WE NOW HAVE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS IMPACTFUL AS THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY DAYTIME: KEPT THIS LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS
VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE MID 30S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 250559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL
RACE SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO OUR BRIEF WARM UP
THAT WE EXPERIENCED TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE COOLER WEATHER WILL
BRING FORTH A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE COLD FRONT
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. THE SFC
LOW WILL JUST BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND
DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM AROUND
BROKEN BOW AT DAY BREAK...TO SMITH CENTER KANSAS BY NOON. THE 12Z
AND 18Z NAM40 INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (900-850MB)
SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.01 TO 0.10
INCHES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL QUICKLY SATURATE TO BELOW FREEZING
AND THUS IT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ALL SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A WARM LAYER RIGHT NEAR THE SFC...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO
MOST AREAS SEEING A LITTLE RAIN INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
AND SNOW AS THE NEAR SFC AREA SATURATES AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN.
LOCATIONS PRIMARILY FROM THE TRI CITIES AND TO THE NORTHEAST COULD
ALSO SEE A TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH PERHAPS A 1 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF WET SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY RANGING FROM A
TRACE UP TO 1 INCH. THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE FORCING THROUGH THE DAY AND EXIT OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ALTHOUGH IT`S STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO TALK ANY SPECIFIC
TIMING/AMOUNTS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...THERE IS LITTLE SECRET THAT
THE "HIGHLIGHT" OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD ARE THE VARIOUS MEASURABLE
SNOW CHANCES THAT NOT ONLY INCLUDE THE WEEKEND AS BEFORE...BUT NOW
EXTEND AS FAR OUT AS MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL...AS IT NOW APPEARS THE
SNOW CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW "WAVES" WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LULL OR TWO IN BETWEEN. WE ARE STILL 24-48 HOURS AWAY FROM
PUBLISHING OFFICIAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS WEEKEND IN OUR PRODUCTS
AND SOCIAL MEDIA...BUT IF (AND YES A BIG "IF") THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR CURRENT TRENDS...WE
WOULD BE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 2-6" POTENTIAL FOR THE SATURDAY-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WHOLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. AGAIN THOUGH...CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS DAY 4-6 TIME RANGE...AS OTHER MODELS SUCH AS
THE LATEST 12Z CANADIAN GEM MODEL CONTINUES TO OFFER A LESS-
CONCERNING PICTURE WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEEKEND SNOW POTENTIAL
FOCUSING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. BECAUSE NOT EVERY MODEL IS IN
UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT...POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE
STILL NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT...ALTHOUGH SOME "LIKELY" 60S
ARE NOW ADVERTISED MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE ON
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. IN OTHER WORDS...THIS WEEKEND CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING...BUT IT`S STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO HIT THE WINTRY
"PANIC BUTTON" JUST YET.

OF MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN THE WEEKEND-MONDAY SNOWFALL
DETAILS ...TEMPERATURE-WISE THINGS ARE GOING TO REMAIN SOLIDLY
BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR LATE FEB-EARLY MARCH ARE WELL
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
OVERALL-COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH
ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER 20S PREVAILING MOST AREAS FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND
THEN MAYBE...JUST MAYBE A RETURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD 30S FOR
MONDAY-TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NO LATE NIGHTS/MORNINGS
THAT APPEAR TO BE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CANDIDATES (-20 OR
COLDER)...BUT THERE COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF -15 TO -20 VALUES
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH LIGHTER
WIND MOST PLACES SHOULD DROP NO COLDER THAN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE.

TAKING A BIT BRIEFER-THAN-USUAL LOOK AT THE DETAILS IN 12-24 HOURS
BLOCKS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NOT TO COMPLETELY IGNORE "SYSTEM NUMBER 1" THIS
WEEK AS DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...BUT BY SUNSET
THE ONLY THING THAT SHOULD POSSIBLY BE LINGERING IS A CHANCE OF
NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES...WITH THIS FLURRY POTENTIAL ENHANCED IF
IN FACT A FAIRLY SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT IN A FAVORABLY COLD DENDRITIC TEMPERATURE LAYER. IN
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...LINGERED A CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE BIGGER
STORY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE SHARPLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE CWA ON
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL AVERAGE
A BRISK 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30+ MPH AT TIMES. ACTUAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE AIMED SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST NEB
ZONES...WITH MORE-SO 10-13 IN KS ZONES. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 TO -20 WILL BE COMMON LATE IN
THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH/EAST OF THE TRI CITIES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN A
PRECIP-FREE BUT VERY COLD 24 HOURS...AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS ITS CORE SLIDES BY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH ONLY
TEENS IN MOST AREAS AND MAYBE LOW 20S SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS WILL BE
MADE WORSE BY CONTINUED STEADY NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED GENERALLY
15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BREEZES THURSDAY NIGHT TURN LIGHTER
AS THEY SHIFT TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...BUT ACTUAL LOW TEMPS ARE EVEN
COLDER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE AND GENERALLY AIMED A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: AGAIN KEPT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN A
FEW FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BREEZES WILL KEEP QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE HIGHS POSSIBLY
NUDGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY INTO THE LOW-MID 20S
MOST PLACES.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT: HAVE LARGELY ALREADY COVERED THIS
48-HOUR MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN ABOVE...SO PLEASE REFER TO IT
AGAIN. SNOW COULD VERY WELL OVERSPREAD THE CWA IN EARNEST DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BLOSSOMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BETTER SNOW CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO FAVOR SOUTHERN ZONES
MORE SO THAN NORTHERN ONES.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: IN A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WE NOW HAVE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS IMPACTFUL AS THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY DAYTIME: KEPT THIS LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS
VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE MID 30S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 250559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL
RACE SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO OUR BRIEF WARM UP
THAT WE EXPERIENCED TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE COOLER WEATHER WILL
BRING FORTH A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE COLD FRONT
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. THE SFC
LOW WILL JUST BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND
DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM AROUND
BROKEN BOW AT DAY BREAK...TO SMITH CENTER KANSAS BY NOON. THE 12Z
AND 18Z NAM40 INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (900-850MB)
SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.01 TO 0.10
INCHES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL QUICKLY SATURATE TO BELOW FREEZING
AND THUS IT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ALL SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A WARM LAYER RIGHT NEAR THE SFC...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO
MOST AREAS SEEING A LITTLE RAIN INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
AND SNOW AS THE NEAR SFC AREA SATURATES AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN.
LOCATIONS PRIMARILY FROM THE TRI CITIES AND TO THE NORTHEAST COULD
ALSO SEE A TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH PERHAPS A 1 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF WET SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY RANGING FROM A
TRACE UP TO 1 INCH. THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE FORCING THROUGH THE DAY AND EXIT OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ALTHOUGH IT`S STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO TALK ANY SPECIFIC
TIMING/AMOUNTS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...THERE IS LITTLE SECRET THAT
THE "HIGHLIGHT" OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD ARE THE VARIOUS MEASURABLE
SNOW CHANCES THAT NOT ONLY INCLUDE THE WEEKEND AS BEFORE...BUT NOW
EXTEND AS FAR OUT AS MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL...AS IT NOW APPEARS THE
SNOW CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW "WAVES" WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LULL OR TWO IN BETWEEN. WE ARE STILL 24-48 HOURS AWAY FROM
PUBLISHING OFFICIAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS WEEKEND IN OUR PRODUCTS
AND SOCIAL MEDIA...BUT IF (AND YES A BIG "IF") THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR CURRENT TRENDS...WE
WOULD BE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 2-6" POTENTIAL FOR THE SATURDAY-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WHOLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. AGAIN THOUGH...CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS DAY 4-6 TIME RANGE...AS OTHER MODELS SUCH AS
THE LATEST 12Z CANADIAN GEM MODEL CONTINUES TO OFFER A LESS-
CONCERNING PICTURE WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEEKEND SNOW POTENTIAL
FOCUSING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. BECAUSE NOT EVERY MODEL IS IN
UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT...POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE
STILL NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT...ALTHOUGH SOME "LIKELY" 60S
ARE NOW ADVERTISED MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE ON
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. IN OTHER WORDS...THIS WEEKEND CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING...BUT IT`S STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO HIT THE WINTRY
"PANIC BUTTON" JUST YET.

OF MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN THE WEEKEND-MONDAY SNOWFALL
DETAILS ...TEMPERATURE-WISE THINGS ARE GOING TO REMAIN SOLIDLY
BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR LATE FEB-EARLY MARCH ARE WELL
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
OVERALL-COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH
ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER 20S PREVAILING MOST AREAS FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND
THEN MAYBE...JUST MAYBE A RETURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD 30S FOR
MONDAY-TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NO LATE NIGHTS/MORNINGS
THAT APPEAR TO BE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CANDIDATES (-20 OR
COLDER)...BUT THERE COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF -15 TO -20 VALUES
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH LIGHTER
WIND MOST PLACES SHOULD DROP NO COLDER THAN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE.

TAKING A BIT BRIEFER-THAN-USUAL LOOK AT THE DETAILS IN 12-24 HOURS
BLOCKS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NOT TO COMPLETELY IGNORE "SYSTEM NUMBER 1" THIS
WEEK AS DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...BUT BY SUNSET
THE ONLY THING THAT SHOULD POSSIBLY BE LINGERING IS A CHANCE OF
NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES...WITH THIS FLURRY POTENTIAL ENHANCED IF
IN FACT A FAIRLY SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT IN A FAVORABLY COLD DENDRITIC TEMPERATURE LAYER. IN
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...LINGERED A CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE BIGGER
STORY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE SHARPLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE CWA ON
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL AVERAGE
A BRISK 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30+ MPH AT TIMES. ACTUAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE AIMED SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST NEB
ZONES...WITH MORE-SO 10-13 IN KS ZONES. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 TO -20 WILL BE COMMON LATE IN
THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH/EAST OF THE TRI CITIES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN A
PRECIP-FREE BUT VERY COLD 24 HOURS...AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS ITS CORE SLIDES BY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH ONLY
TEENS IN MOST AREAS AND MAYBE LOW 20S SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS WILL BE
MADE WORSE BY CONTINUED STEADY NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED GENERALLY
15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BREEZES THURSDAY NIGHT TURN LIGHTER
AS THEY SHIFT TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...BUT ACTUAL LOW TEMPS ARE EVEN
COLDER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE AND GENERALLY AIMED A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: AGAIN KEPT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN A
FEW FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BREEZES WILL KEEP QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE HIGHS POSSIBLY
NUDGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY INTO THE LOW-MID 20S
MOST PLACES.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT: HAVE LARGELY ALREADY COVERED THIS
48-HOUR MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN ABOVE...SO PLEASE REFER TO IT
AGAIN. SNOW COULD VERY WELL OVERSPREAD THE CWA IN EARNEST DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BLOSSOMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BETTER SNOW CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO FAVOR SOUTHERN ZONES
MORE SO THAN NORTHERN ONES.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: IN A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WE NOW HAVE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS IMPACTFUL AS THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY DAYTIME: KEPT THIS LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS
VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE MID 30S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR MID-LVL CIGS WILL OVERTAKE THE
TERMINALS FROM THE N...REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K FT. SSW WINDS
JUST UNDER 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS BASED ON WINDS
FROM OUR RADAR AT 400 FT...BUT THESE WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR CIGS LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT. COLD FRONT PASSES THE
TERMINALS AROUND 18Z WITH A BRIEF BURST OF POSSIBLY IFR SNOW.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. IF THE WORST
CASE OCCURS...ANY ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. MVFR CIGS MOVE
IN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND N WIND WILL GUST TO 35 KTS...WITH A
ONE-TIME PKWND OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: MVFR CIGS REMAIN. N WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KLBF 250526 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOTED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND GREENLAND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
LOWS WERE NOTED IN THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH FEATURES
NOTED OVER NRN ONTARIO...NEW BRUNSWICK...AND GREENLAND PROPER.
RIDGING EXTENDED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREENLAND LOW
WELL NORTH OF INUVIK NW TERRITORIES. ACROSS THE LOWER 48...A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM ERN CANADA SWD TO THE SERN
STATES. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER
NRN AZ WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SEWD INTO SRN
CALIFORNIA.  ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA...THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN MT...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WAS PRESENT ALOFT. WARMER PACIFIC AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE
REGION TDY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ACROSS FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA...SNOW COVER HAS HELD TEMPS BACK TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR NERN
MONTANA...INTO NERN SD AND NRN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE
FRONT WERE IN THE TEENS OVER NRN MINNESOTA AND NERN ND...WHILE
READINGS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AND PRECIP TYPE. LOWS WILL BE ABLE TO STAY MILD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF. ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...ENHANCING RADIATIONAL COOLING
HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA SOUTHWESTWARD STARTING LATE TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...FRONTOGENTIC LIFT WILL HELP TO INITIATE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LOOKS TO BE AFTER 12Z AS THE AIR ABOVE
THE SURFACE WILL BE DRY TO START OUT AND WILL NEED TO BECOME
SATURATED BEFORE SNOWFALL OCCURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE DRY LAYER
SATURATES THE WET BULB TRACE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. DONT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURING
DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...BUT IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR
IN THIS TIME FRAME...FELT THE POTENTIAL NEEDED TO BE MENTIONED.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

HIGHS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE REACHED DURING THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL
WITH THE PASSING FRONT. ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX STARTING
AFTER 15Z AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID DAY. BUT AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE DAY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID RANGE...WEDS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES IN THE WEST WEDS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RUNNING 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
EACH DAY...AND EXPECTED LOWS BELOW ZERO WEDS NIGHT AND THURS NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC AIR WILL BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH BITTERLY COLD H85 TEMPS OF -14 IN THE SW TO -21C IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND FAR WESTERN ZONES INVOF SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 280K
AND 285K THETA SURFACES. DECREASED COND PRESSURE DEFICITS WERE NOTED
IN THESE AREAS AS WELL...LENDING SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AS MOISTURE WITHIN THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS REMAINS LIMITED AND THE BEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE OVER NERN
COLORADO. LOWS WEDS NIGHT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT CHILLY WITH READINGS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED. BASED ON H85 TEMPS...BELOW ZERO LOWS
WOULD BE PROBABLE...HOWEVER...CLOUDS IN THE WEST...AND NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. FOR
THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS
WITH A SECONDARY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FCST H85 TEMPS AT 21Z THURSDAY REMAIN DOWNRIGHT
CHILLY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM -13C IN THE SOUTHWEST...TO -22C IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. EVEN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED
THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT NOTED BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
FALLING OFF TO 8 BELOW TO 2 ABOVE ZERO.  THE COLDEST READINGS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NERN ZONES INVOF OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WHILE
SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGH WHERE
SOME CLOUDS MAY COME INTO PLAY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SERN
PANHANDLE. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
FRIDAY...RECYCLING ARCTIC AIR NWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAYS READINGS...WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER 20S FORECAST...SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ARCTIC AIR
REMAINING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE LIKE JANUARY VS. EARLY MARCH.
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH SOME 30S
ARRIVING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A LEAD DISTURBANCE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS KANSAS...EASTERN COLORADO AND
SRN NEBRASKA. ATTM...THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR SNOW
ACROSS KANSAS AND FAR SRN NEBRASKA. DID SOME RETOOLING OF POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA. FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS DESERT SW INTO TEXAS. PCPN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH COLD AND DRY CONDS FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY 12Z-21Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED IN
SNOW...MAINLY NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2. VFR/MVFR IS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS/GOMEZ
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 250526 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOTED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND GREENLAND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
LOWS WERE NOTED IN THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH FEATURES
NOTED OVER NRN ONTARIO...NEW BRUNSWICK...AND GREENLAND PROPER.
RIDGING EXTENDED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREENLAND LOW
WELL NORTH OF INUVIK NW TERRITORIES. ACROSS THE LOWER 48...A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM ERN CANADA SWD TO THE SERN
STATES. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER
NRN AZ WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SEWD INTO SRN
CALIFORNIA.  ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA...THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN MT...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WAS PRESENT ALOFT. WARMER PACIFIC AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE
REGION TDY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ACROSS FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA...SNOW COVER HAS HELD TEMPS BACK TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR NERN
MONTANA...INTO NERN SD AND NRN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE
FRONT WERE IN THE TEENS OVER NRN MINNESOTA AND NERN ND...WHILE
READINGS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AND PRECIP TYPE. LOWS WILL BE ABLE TO STAY MILD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF. ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...ENHANCING RADIATIONAL COOLING
HELPING TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA SOUTHWESTWARD STARTING LATE TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...FRONTOGENTIC LIFT WILL HELP TO INITIATE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LOOKS TO BE AFTER 12Z AS THE AIR ABOVE
THE SURFACE WILL BE DRY TO START OUT AND WILL NEED TO BECOME
SATURATED BEFORE SNOWFALL OCCURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE DRY LAYER
SATURATES THE WET BULB TRACE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. DONT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURING
DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...BUT IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR
IN THIS TIME FRAME...FELT THE POTENTIAL NEEDED TO BE MENTIONED.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

HIGHS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE REACHED DURING THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL
WITH THE PASSING FRONT. ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX STARTING
AFTER 15Z AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MID DAY. BUT AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE DAY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MID RANGE...WEDS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES IN THE WEST WEDS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RUNNING 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
EACH DAY...AND EXPECTED LOWS BELOW ZERO WEDS NIGHT AND THURS NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC AIR WILL BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH BITTERLY COLD H85 TEMPS OF -14 IN THE SW TO -21C IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND FAR WESTERN ZONES INVOF SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 280K
AND 285K THETA SURFACES. DECREASED COND PRESSURE DEFICITS WERE NOTED
IN THESE AREAS AS WELL...LENDING SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AS MOISTURE WITHIN THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS REMAINS LIMITED AND THE BEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE OVER NERN
COLORADO. LOWS WEDS NIGHT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT CHILLY WITH READINGS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED. BASED ON H85 TEMPS...BELOW ZERO LOWS
WOULD BE PROBABLE...HOWEVER...CLOUDS IN THE WEST...AND NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. FOR
THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS
WITH A SECONDARY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FCST H85 TEMPS AT 21Z THURSDAY REMAIN DOWNRIGHT
CHILLY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM -13C IN THE SOUTHWEST...TO -22C IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. EVEN WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED
THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT NOTED BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
FALLING OFF TO 8 BELOW TO 2 ABOVE ZERO.  THE COLDEST READINGS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NERN ZONES INVOF OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WHILE
SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGH WHERE
SOME CLOUDS MAY COME INTO PLAY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SERN
PANHANDLE. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
FRIDAY...RECYCLING ARCTIC AIR NWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAYS READINGS...WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER 20S FORECAST...SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ARCTIC AIR
REMAINING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE LIKE JANUARY VS. EARLY MARCH.
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH SOME 30S
ARRIVING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A LEAD DISTURBANCE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS KANSAS...EASTERN COLORADO AND
SRN NEBRASKA. ATTM...THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR SNOW
ACROSS KANSAS AND FAR SRN NEBRASKA. DID SOME RETOOLING OF POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA. FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS DESERT SW INTO TEXAS. PCPN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH COLD AND DRY CONDS FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY 12Z-21Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED IN
SNOW...MAINLY NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2. VFR/MVFR IS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS/GOMEZ
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KOAX 250521
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1121 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TIMING OF PCPN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED.
MOST RECENT RUNS OF HRRR...RAP AND NAM SUPPORT A SLOWER SOLUTION.
THE SYSTEM TIMING FOR THE END OF THE EVENT IS STILL FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE A VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM.
WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE DEAL WITH A CLIPPER
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL BRING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER WITH 50 TO 80 METER 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS. WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP
ALONG/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
NOSE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES TO NEAR I80 IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY AND INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ON THE NORTH/BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...TEMPS ALOFT CRASH QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR A QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING WINDS TO 20 TO
30 MPH THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS ARE VERY COMPLEX WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE MORNING
RUSH SHOULD BE FINE FOR THE MAJOR METRO AREAS OF LINCOLN...OMAHA
AND COUNCIL BLUFFS ALONG I80...BUT THE EVENING RUSH WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CHALLENGING. THE SNOW DOES END FAIRLY QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD PROBABLY END
ALTOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...HAVE CUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A
BIT...RANGING FROM NEARLY NOTHING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE
PRECIP PROBABLY STARTS AS RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 3-4
INCHES FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. HAVE 1-2 FOR NORFOLK TO OMAHA...LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES THAT HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE A FREEZING RAIN MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...FEEL THAT THE SHORT DURATION IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS TO NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FURTHER
WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND THEN SUB ZERO LOWS AGAIN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE COLD TEMPS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP TO
10 TO 20 BELOW BOTH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AND THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE NEXT BIG WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND
FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT TODAY
BRINGING SNOW CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY THEN ENDING SUNDAY. STILL ONE DAY TO EARLY TO GET
SPECIFIC ON SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT PLOWABLE SNOW SEEMS LIKELY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. MODELS TODAY ARE
DEFINITELY SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER ON QPF THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS
AGO.

THEN ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A SLIGHTLY MORE DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THIS FEATURE THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AND MIXED PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP. COLD AIR
MOVING IN WILL CHANGE THE PCPN TO SNOW...AND EXPECT THAT IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN NORTH WITH GUSTS TO 39 KNOTS OR
MORE AFTER THE WIND SHIFTS TO NORTH. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WITH STRONG WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NEZ015-034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ069-080-091.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 250521
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1121 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TIMING OF PCPN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED.
MOST RECENT RUNS OF HRRR...RAP AND NAM SUPPORT A SLOWER SOLUTION.
THE SYSTEM TIMING FOR THE END OF THE EVENT IS STILL FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE A VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM.
WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE DEAL WITH A CLIPPER
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL BRING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER WITH 50 TO 80 METER 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS. WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP
ALONG/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
NOSE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES TO NEAR I80 IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY AND INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ON THE NORTH/BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...TEMPS ALOFT CRASH QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR A QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING WINDS TO 20 TO
30 MPH THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS ARE VERY COMPLEX WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE MORNING
RUSH SHOULD BE FINE FOR THE MAJOR METRO AREAS OF LINCOLN...OMAHA
AND COUNCIL BLUFFS ALONG I80...BUT THE EVENING RUSH WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CHALLENGING. THE SNOW DOES END FAIRLY QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD PROBABLY END
ALTOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...HAVE CUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A
BIT...RANGING FROM NEARLY NOTHING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE
PRECIP PROBABLY STARTS AS RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 3-4
INCHES FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. HAVE 1-2 FOR NORFOLK TO OMAHA...LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES THAT HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE A FREEZING RAIN MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...FEEL THAT THE SHORT DURATION IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS TO NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FURTHER
WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND THEN SUB ZERO LOWS AGAIN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE COLD TEMPS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP TO
10 TO 20 BELOW BOTH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AND THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE NEXT BIG WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND
FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT TODAY
BRINGING SNOW CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY THEN ENDING SUNDAY. STILL ONE DAY TO EARLY TO GET
SPECIFIC ON SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT PLOWABLE SNOW SEEMS LIKELY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. MODELS TODAY ARE
DEFINITELY SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER ON QPF THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS
AGO.

THEN ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A SLIGHTLY MORE DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THIS FEATURE THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AND MIXED PCPN SHOULD DEVELOP. COLD AIR
MOVING IN WILL CHANGE THE PCPN TO SNOW...AND EXPECT THAT IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN NORTH WITH GUSTS TO 39 KNOTS OR
MORE AFTER THE WIND SHIFTS TO NORTH. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WITH STRONG WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NEZ015-034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ069-080-091.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250300 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
900 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TIMING OF PCPN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED.
MOST RECENT RUNS OF HRRR...RAP AND NAM SUPPORT A SLOWER SOLUTION.
THE SYSTEM TIMING FOR THE END OF THE EVENT IS STILL FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE A VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM.
WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE DEAL WITH A CLIPPER
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL BRING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER WITH 50 TO 80 METER 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS. WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP
ALONG/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
NOSE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES TO NEAR I80 IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY AND INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ON THE NORTH/BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...TEMPS ALOFT CRASH QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR A QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING WINDS TO 20 TO
30 MPH THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS ARE VERY COMPLEX WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE MORNING
RUSH SHOULD BE FINE FOR THE MAJOR METRO AREAS OF LINCOLN...OMAHA
AND COUNCIL BLUFFS ALONG I80...BUT THE EVENING RUSH WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CHALLENGING. THE SNOW DOES END FAIRLY QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD PROBABLY END
ALTOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...HAVE CUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A
BIT...RANGING FROM NEARLY NOTHING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE
PRECIP PROBABLY STARTS AS RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 3-4
INCHES FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. HAVE 1-2 FOR NORFOLK TO OMAHA...LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES THAT HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE A FREEZING RAIN MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...FEEL THAT THE SHORT DURATION IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS TO NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FURTHER
WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND THEN SUB ZERO LOWS AGAIN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE COLD TEMPS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP TO
10 TO 20 BELOW BOTH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AND THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE NEXT BIG WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND
FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT TODAY
BRINGING SNOW CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY THEN ENDING SUNDAY. STILL ONE DAY TO EARLY TO GET
SPECIFIC ON SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT PLOWABLE SNOW SEEMS LIKELY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. MODELS TODAY ARE
DEFINITELY SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER ON QPF THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS
AGO.

THEN ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A SLIGHTLY MORE DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THIS FEATURE THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z WED.
CEILINGS WILL DECREASE AT LEAST INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS PCPN
DEVELOPS. EXPECT IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW BY LATE MORNING AT KOFK
AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KOMA AND KLNK. MIXED PCPN LIKELY AT
LEAST BRIEFLY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AFTER THE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NEZ015-034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ069-080-091.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 250300 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
900 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TIMING OF PCPN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED.
MOST RECENT RUNS OF HRRR...RAP AND NAM SUPPORT A SLOWER SOLUTION.
THE SYSTEM TIMING FOR THE END OF THE EVENT IS STILL FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE A VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM.
WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE DEAL WITH A CLIPPER
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL BRING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER WITH 50 TO 80 METER 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS. WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP
ALONG/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
NOSE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES TO NEAR I80 IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY AND INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ON THE NORTH/BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...TEMPS ALOFT CRASH QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR A QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING WINDS TO 20 TO
30 MPH THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS ARE VERY COMPLEX WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE MORNING
RUSH SHOULD BE FINE FOR THE MAJOR METRO AREAS OF LINCOLN...OMAHA
AND COUNCIL BLUFFS ALONG I80...BUT THE EVENING RUSH WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CHALLENGING. THE SNOW DOES END FAIRLY QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD PROBABLY END
ALTOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...HAVE CUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A
BIT...RANGING FROM NEARLY NOTHING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE
PRECIP PROBABLY STARTS AS RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 3-4
INCHES FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. HAVE 1-2 FOR NORFOLK TO OMAHA...LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES THAT HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE A FREEZING RAIN MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...FEEL THAT THE SHORT DURATION IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS TO NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FURTHER
WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND THEN SUB ZERO LOWS AGAIN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE COLD TEMPS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP TO
10 TO 20 BELOW BOTH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AND THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE NEXT BIG WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND
FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT TODAY
BRINGING SNOW CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY THEN ENDING SUNDAY. STILL ONE DAY TO EARLY TO GET
SPECIFIC ON SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT PLOWABLE SNOW SEEMS LIKELY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. MODELS TODAY ARE
DEFINITELY SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER ON QPF THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS
AGO.

THEN ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A SLIGHTLY MORE DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THIS FEATURE THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z WED.
CEILINGS WILL DECREASE AT LEAST INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS PCPN
DEVELOPS. EXPECT IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW BY LATE MORNING AT KOFK
AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KOMA AND KLNK. MIXED PCPN LIKELY AT
LEAST BRIEFLY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AFTER THE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NEZ015-034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ069-080-091.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 250300 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
900 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TIMING OF PCPN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED.
MOST RECENT RUNS OF HRRR...RAP AND NAM SUPPORT A SLOWER SOLUTION.
THE SYSTEM TIMING FOR THE END OF THE EVENT IS STILL FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE A VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM.
WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE DEAL WITH A CLIPPER
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL BRING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER WITH 50 TO 80 METER 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS. WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP
ALONG/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
NOSE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES TO NEAR I80 IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY AND INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ON THE NORTH/BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...TEMPS ALOFT CRASH QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR A QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING WINDS TO 20 TO
30 MPH THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS ARE VERY COMPLEX WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE MORNING
RUSH SHOULD BE FINE FOR THE MAJOR METRO AREAS OF LINCOLN...OMAHA
AND COUNCIL BLUFFS ALONG I80...BUT THE EVENING RUSH WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CHALLENGING. THE SNOW DOES END FAIRLY QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD PROBABLY END
ALTOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...HAVE CUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A
BIT...RANGING FROM NEARLY NOTHING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE
PRECIP PROBABLY STARTS AS RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 3-4
INCHES FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. HAVE 1-2 FOR NORFOLK TO OMAHA...LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES THAT HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE A FREEZING RAIN MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...FEEL THAT THE SHORT DURATION IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS TO NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FURTHER
WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND THEN SUB ZERO LOWS AGAIN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE COLD TEMPS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP TO
10 TO 20 BELOW BOTH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AND THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE NEXT BIG WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND
FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT TODAY
BRINGING SNOW CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY THEN ENDING SUNDAY. STILL ONE DAY TO EARLY TO GET
SPECIFIC ON SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT PLOWABLE SNOW SEEMS LIKELY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. MODELS TODAY ARE
DEFINITELY SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER ON QPF THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS
AGO.

THEN ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A SLIGHTLY MORE DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THIS FEATURE THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z WED.
CEILINGS WILL DECREASE AT LEAST INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS PCPN
DEVELOPS. EXPECT IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW BY LATE MORNING AT KOFK
AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KOMA AND KLNK. MIXED PCPN LIKELY AT
LEAST BRIEFLY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AFTER THE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NEZ015-034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ069-080-091.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 250300 AAA
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
900 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TIMING OF PCPN OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED.
MOST RECENT RUNS OF HRRR...RAP AND NAM SUPPORT A SLOWER SOLUTION.
THE SYSTEM TIMING FOR THE END OF THE EVENT IS STILL FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BE A VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM.
WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE DEAL WITH A CLIPPER
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL BRING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER WITH 50 TO 80 METER 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS. WILL LIKELY SEE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP
ALONG/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
NOSE ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES TO NEAR I80 IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY AND INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ON THE NORTH/BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...TEMPS ALOFT CRASH QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR A QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING WINDS TO 20 TO
30 MPH THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THUS...HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS ARE VERY COMPLEX WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE MORNING
RUSH SHOULD BE FINE FOR THE MAJOR METRO AREAS OF LINCOLN...OMAHA
AND COUNCIL BLUFFS ALONG I80...BUT THE EVENING RUSH WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CHALLENGING. THE SNOW DOES END FAIRLY QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD PROBABLY END
ALTOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...HAVE CUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A
BIT...RANGING FROM NEARLY NOTHING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE
PRECIP PROBABLY STARTS AS RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 3-4
INCHES FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. HAVE 1-2 FOR NORFOLK TO OMAHA...LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES THAT HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE A FREEZING RAIN MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...FEEL THAT THE SHORT DURATION IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS TO NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FURTHER
WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND THEN SUB ZERO LOWS AGAIN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE COLD TEMPS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP TO
10 TO 20 BELOW BOTH WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AND THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE NEXT BIG WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND
FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT TODAY
BRINGING SNOW CHANCES BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY THEN ENDING SUNDAY. STILL ONE DAY TO EARLY TO GET
SPECIFIC ON SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT PLOWABLE SNOW SEEMS LIKELY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. MODELS TODAY ARE
DEFINITELY SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER ON QPF THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS
AGO.

THEN ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS ARE HAVING A SLIGHTLY MORE DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THIS FEATURE THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z WED.
CEILINGS WILL DECREASE AT LEAST INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS PCPN
DEVELOPS. EXPECT IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW BY LATE MORNING AT KOFK
AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KOMA AND KLNK. MIXED PCPN LIKELY AT
LEAST BRIEFLY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AFTER THE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NEZ015-034.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ069-080-091.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



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