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000
FXUS63 KGID 270559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING UPPER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL RAIN AND THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF EVEN
SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS NANCE AND POLK COUNTIES. OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS FURNAS COUNTY
NEBRASKA AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE RIDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAYBE TOO LATE TO DO MUCH FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS. OUR FAR WEST SHOULD WARM UP RATHER DECENTLY INTO THE
50S...BUT HAVE COOLED THE TRI CITIES AND EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW DUE TO BOTH THE WARM
GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ONCE AGAIN...NOT AS MUCH TIME TO HIT THE "FINER DETAILS" AND
POTENTIAL CAVEATS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD AS WOULD NORMALLY
LIKE...SO WILL FOCUS ON THE PRIMARY POINTS:

1) PRECIPITATION-WISE: THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH LIMITED RISK FOR ESPECIALLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
THAT BEING SAID...MAINTAINED EITHER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL SHOW ITS HAND IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME (ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT) BUT FOR NOW FELT
SPRINKLE-WORDING CONTINUED TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GOING
DRY AND MENTIONING A FORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE BOTTOM LINE
THOUGH: BARRING NOTABLE CHANGES...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A "SOAKER" DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

2) TEMPERATURE-WISE: ALTHOUGH NOT AS MARKEDLY AS WHAT THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER DID FOR FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY FOR MOST FOLKS WAS
ALSO WAS INCLINED TO TRIM SATURDAY HIGHS A TOUCH AND POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH (FOR NOW LOWERED GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES). FOR THE
SUNDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HIGHS/LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SPECIFICALLY NOW:
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A WARM-UP...NOW HAVE HIGHS
ONLY AIMED FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO LOW-MID 70S EXTREME WEST (AND
LOW-MID 60S TRI-CITIES). THEN SUNDAY-THURSDAY CURRENTLY ARE AIMED
SOLIDLY WELL INTO THE 60S OR 70S...WITH THE WARMEST 70S SLATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DURING WHICH POSSIBLY A FEW 80S COULD EVEN
SHOW UP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

3) POTENTIAL HAZARDS: THERE IS THE VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THE ECMWF)...HOWEVER IT IS FAR FAR TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. OF LIKELY GREATER
CONCERN OVERALL WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW POTENTIAL AFTERNOONS OF AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL (IF NOT OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL) FIRE DANGER THANKS
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT/BELOW 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
AT/ABOVE 20 MPH. FOR THE TIME BEING...PROBABLY THE NEAREST-TERM
DAY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY BEHIND
A FAIRLY DECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. BECAUSE THIS IS WITHIN 72 HOURS
NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID).

ENDING WITH A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE-SCALE METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS:

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES FOR THE MOST PART...THE LINGERING RAIN CHANCE IN EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY EVENING IS THE "LAST GASP" OF FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
DEPARTING EASTWARD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF KEEP
THE CWA LARGELY DRY...WANTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A SPRINKLE
MENTION IN SOME AREAS AS MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: BROAD AND DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WITH LITTLE FORCING A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: ECMWF KEEPS IT DRY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY PER THE GFS ALONG A
PASSING FRONT. TONS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AS JET INDUCED
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WE COULD GET SOME LIGHT SHOWER AND PERHAPS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 270559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING UPPER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL RAIN AND THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF EVEN
SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS NANCE AND POLK COUNTIES. OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS FURNAS COUNTY
NEBRASKA AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE RIDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAYBE TOO LATE TO DO MUCH FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS. OUR FAR WEST SHOULD WARM UP RATHER DECENTLY INTO THE
50S...BUT HAVE COOLED THE TRI CITIES AND EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW DUE TO BOTH THE WARM
GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ONCE AGAIN...NOT AS MUCH TIME TO HIT THE "FINER DETAILS" AND
POTENTIAL CAVEATS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD AS WOULD NORMALLY
LIKE...SO WILL FOCUS ON THE PRIMARY POINTS:

1) PRECIPITATION-WISE: THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH LIMITED RISK FOR ESPECIALLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
THAT BEING SAID...MAINTAINED EITHER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL SHOW ITS HAND IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME (ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT) BUT FOR NOW FELT
SPRINKLE-WORDING CONTINUED TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GOING
DRY AND MENTIONING A FORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE BOTTOM LINE
THOUGH: BARRING NOTABLE CHANGES...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A "SOAKER" DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

2) TEMPERATURE-WISE: ALTHOUGH NOT AS MARKEDLY AS WHAT THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER DID FOR FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY FOR MOST FOLKS WAS
ALSO WAS INCLINED TO TRIM SATURDAY HIGHS A TOUCH AND POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH (FOR NOW LOWERED GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES). FOR THE
SUNDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HIGHS/LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SPECIFICALLY NOW:
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A WARM-UP...NOW HAVE HIGHS
ONLY AIMED FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO LOW-MID 70S EXTREME WEST (AND
LOW-MID 60S TRI-CITIES). THEN SUNDAY-THURSDAY CURRENTLY ARE AIMED
SOLIDLY WELL INTO THE 60S OR 70S...WITH THE WARMEST 70S SLATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DURING WHICH POSSIBLY A FEW 80S COULD EVEN
SHOW UP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

3) POTENTIAL HAZARDS: THERE IS THE VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THE ECMWF)...HOWEVER IT IS FAR FAR TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. OF LIKELY GREATER
CONCERN OVERALL WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW POTENTIAL AFTERNOONS OF AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL (IF NOT OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL) FIRE DANGER THANKS
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT/BELOW 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
AT/ABOVE 20 MPH. FOR THE TIME BEING...PROBABLY THE NEAREST-TERM
DAY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY BEHIND
A FAIRLY DECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. BECAUSE THIS IS WITHIN 72 HOURS
NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID).

ENDING WITH A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE-SCALE METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS:

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES FOR THE MOST PART...THE LINGERING RAIN CHANCE IN EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY EVENING IS THE "LAST GASP" OF FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
DEPARTING EASTWARD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF KEEP
THE CWA LARGELY DRY...WANTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A SPRINKLE
MENTION IN SOME AREAS AS MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: BROAD AND DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WITH LITTLE FORCING A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: ECMWF KEEPS IT DRY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY PER THE GFS ALONG A
PASSING FRONT. TONS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AS JET INDUCED
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WE COULD GET SOME LIGHT SHOWER AND PERHAPS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 270559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING UPPER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL RAIN AND THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF EVEN
SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS NANCE AND POLK COUNTIES. OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS FURNAS COUNTY
NEBRASKA AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE RIDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAYBE TOO LATE TO DO MUCH FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS. OUR FAR WEST SHOULD WARM UP RATHER DECENTLY INTO THE
50S...BUT HAVE COOLED THE TRI CITIES AND EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW DUE TO BOTH THE WARM
GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ONCE AGAIN...NOT AS MUCH TIME TO HIT THE "FINER DETAILS" AND
POTENTIAL CAVEATS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD AS WOULD NORMALLY
LIKE...SO WILL FOCUS ON THE PRIMARY POINTS:

1) PRECIPITATION-WISE: THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH LIMITED RISK FOR ESPECIALLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
THAT BEING SAID...MAINTAINED EITHER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL SHOW ITS HAND IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME (ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT) BUT FOR NOW FELT
SPRINKLE-WORDING CONTINUED TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GOING
DRY AND MENTIONING A FORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE BOTTOM LINE
THOUGH: BARRING NOTABLE CHANGES...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A "SOAKER" DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

2) TEMPERATURE-WISE: ALTHOUGH NOT AS MARKEDLY AS WHAT THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER DID FOR FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY FOR MOST FOLKS WAS
ALSO WAS INCLINED TO TRIM SATURDAY HIGHS A TOUCH AND POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH (FOR NOW LOWERED GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES). FOR THE
SUNDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HIGHS/LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SPECIFICALLY NOW:
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A WARM-UP...NOW HAVE HIGHS
ONLY AIMED FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO LOW-MID 70S EXTREME WEST (AND
LOW-MID 60S TRI-CITIES). THEN SUNDAY-THURSDAY CURRENTLY ARE AIMED
SOLIDLY WELL INTO THE 60S OR 70S...WITH THE WARMEST 70S SLATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DURING WHICH POSSIBLY A FEW 80S COULD EVEN
SHOW UP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

3) POTENTIAL HAZARDS: THERE IS THE VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THE ECMWF)...HOWEVER IT IS FAR FAR TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. OF LIKELY GREATER
CONCERN OVERALL WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW POTENTIAL AFTERNOONS OF AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL (IF NOT OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL) FIRE DANGER THANKS
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT/BELOW 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
AT/ABOVE 20 MPH. FOR THE TIME BEING...PROBABLY THE NEAREST-TERM
DAY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY BEHIND
A FAIRLY DECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. BECAUSE THIS IS WITHIN 72 HOURS
NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID).

ENDING WITH A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE-SCALE METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS:

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES FOR THE MOST PART...THE LINGERING RAIN CHANCE IN EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY EVENING IS THE "LAST GASP" OF FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
DEPARTING EASTWARD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF KEEP
THE CWA LARGELY DRY...WANTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A SPRINKLE
MENTION IN SOME AREAS AS MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: BROAD AND DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WITH LITTLE FORCING A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: ECMWF KEEPS IT DRY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY PER THE GFS ALONG A
PASSING FRONT. TONS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AS JET INDUCED
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WE COULD GET SOME LIGHT SHOWER AND PERHAPS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 270559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING UPPER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL RAIN AND THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF EVEN
SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS NANCE AND POLK COUNTIES. OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS FURNAS COUNTY
NEBRASKA AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE RIDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAYBE TOO LATE TO DO MUCH FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS. OUR FAR WEST SHOULD WARM UP RATHER DECENTLY INTO THE
50S...BUT HAVE COOLED THE TRI CITIES AND EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW DUE TO BOTH THE WARM
GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ONCE AGAIN...NOT AS MUCH TIME TO HIT THE "FINER DETAILS" AND
POTENTIAL CAVEATS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD AS WOULD NORMALLY
LIKE...SO WILL FOCUS ON THE PRIMARY POINTS:

1) PRECIPITATION-WISE: THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH LIMITED RISK FOR ESPECIALLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
THAT BEING SAID...MAINTAINED EITHER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL SHOW ITS HAND IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME (ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT) BUT FOR NOW FELT
SPRINKLE-WORDING CONTINUED TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GOING
DRY AND MENTIONING A FORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE BOTTOM LINE
THOUGH: BARRING NOTABLE CHANGES...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A "SOAKER" DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

2) TEMPERATURE-WISE: ALTHOUGH NOT AS MARKEDLY AS WHAT THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER DID FOR FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY FOR MOST FOLKS WAS
ALSO WAS INCLINED TO TRIM SATURDAY HIGHS A TOUCH AND POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH (FOR NOW LOWERED GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES). FOR THE
SUNDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HIGHS/LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SPECIFICALLY NOW:
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A WARM-UP...NOW HAVE HIGHS
ONLY AIMED FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO LOW-MID 70S EXTREME WEST (AND
LOW-MID 60S TRI-CITIES). THEN SUNDAY-THURSDAY CURRENTLY ARE AIMED
SOLIDLY WELL INTO THE 60S OR 70S...WITH THE WARMEST 70S SLATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DURING WHICH POSSIBLY A FEW 80S COULD EVEN
SHOW UP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

3) POTENTIAL HAZARDS: THERE IS THE VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THE ECMWF)...HOWEVER IT IS FAR FAR TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. OF LIKELY GREATER
CONCERN OVERALL WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW POTENTIAL AFTERNOONS OF AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL (IF NOT OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL) FIRE DANGER THANKS
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT/BELOW 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
AT/ABOVE 20 MPH. FOR THE TIME BEING...PROBABLY THE NEAREST-TERM
DAY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY BEHIND
A FAIRLY DECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. BECAUSE THIS IS WITHIN 72 HOURS
NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID).

ENDING WITH A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE-SCALE METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS:

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES FOR THE MOST PART...THE LINGERING RAIN CHANCE IN EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY EVENING IS THE "LAST GASP" OF FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
DEPARTING EASTWARD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF KEEP
THE CWA LARGELY DRY...WANTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A SPRINKLE
MENTION IN SOME AREAS AS MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: BROAD AND DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WITH LITTLE FORCING A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: ECMWF KEEPS IT DRY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY PER THE GFS ALONG A
PASSING FRONT. TONS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AS JET INDUCED
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WE COULD GET SOME LIGHT SHOWER AND PERHAPS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KOAX 270452
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE WEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED BEHIND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NEB.  850MB ANALYSIS
INDICATED A LOW IN WESTERN ONT...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/CENTRAL
NEB TOWARD NM...AND WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 TO -10C
SPILLING INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  PRECIPITATION /SOME RAIN AND SOME
SNOW/ HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIP...WITH LIGHT
RAIN ABLE TO TURN TO LIGHT SNOW BASED ON WEBCAMS...BUT WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NOTED SO FAR.  HAVE KEPT MAINLY RAIN MENTION FOR
SOUTHERN CWA 00-03Z...AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50F RIGHT NOW AND
WOULD HAVE TO FALL A WAYS FOR SNOW...AND THINK PRECIP WILL LARGELY
BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND 03Z. ONCE PRECIP EXITS...THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE STREAM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS
DOWNWARD GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  AFTER
SKIRTING INTO NORTHEAST NEB IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW
A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MO RIVER BY AROUND
00Z SATURDAY...SLIDING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AND
OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AND COLDER
850MB TEMPERATURES...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD INCLINE MORE TOWARD SNOW
AFTER AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

ON SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
NUDGES INTO THE AREA.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE DAYS FOR FIRE POTENTIAL...BUT
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN.  BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GEM FALLING
BETWEEN THE TWO.  CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL CONSISTENCY IS BETTER ESTABLISHED.  THE
COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
/THOUGH LESS SO/ FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH
COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO KOMA 01-05Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270452
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE WEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED BEHIND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NEB.  850MB ANALYSIS
INDICATED A LOW IN WESTERN ONT...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/CENTRAL
NEB TOWARD NM...AND WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 TO -10C
SPILLING INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  PRECIPITATION /SOME RAIN AND SOME
SNOW/ HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIP...WITH LIGHT
RAIN ABLE TO TURN TO LIGHT SNOW BASED ON WEBCAMS...BUT WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NOTED SO FAR.  HAVE KEPT MAINLY RAIN MENTION FOR
SOUTHERN CWA 00-03Z...AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50F RIGHT NOW AND
WOULD HAVE TO FALL A WAYS FOR SNOW...AND THINK PRECIP WILL LARGELY
BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND 03Z. ONCE PRECIP EXITS...THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE STREAM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS
DOWNWARD GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  AFTER
SKIRTING INTO NORTHEAST NEB IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW
A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MO RIVER BY AROUND
00Z SATURDAY...SLIDING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AND
OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AND COLDER
850MB TEMPERATURES...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD INCLINE MORE TOWARD SNOW
AFTER AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

ON SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
NUDGES INTO THE AREA.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE DAYS FOR FIRE POTENTIAL...BUT
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN.  BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GEM FALLING
BETWEEN THE TWO.  CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL CONSISTENCY IS BETTER ESTABLISHED.  THE
COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
/THOUGH LESS SO/ FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH
COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO KOMA 01-05Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270452
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE WEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED BEHIND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NEB.  850MB ANALYSIS
INDICATED A LOW IN WESTERN ONT...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/CENTRAL
NEB TOWARD NM...AND WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 TO -10C
SPILLING INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  PRECIPITATION /SOME RAIN AND SOME
SNOW/ HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIP...WITH LIGHT
RAIN ABLE TO TURN TO LIGHT SNOW BASED ON WEBCAMS...BUT WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NOTED SO FAR.  HAVE KEPT MAINLY RAIN MENTION FOR
SOUTHERN CWA 00-03Z...AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50F RIGHT NOW AND
WOULD HAVE TO FALL A WAYS FOR SNOW...AND THINK PRECIP WILL LARGELY
BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND 03Z. ONCE PRECIP EXITS...THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE STREAM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS
DOWNWARD GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  AFTER
SKIRTING INTO NORTHEAST NEB IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW
A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MO RIVER BY AROUND
00Z SATURDAY...SLIDING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AND
OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AND COLDER
850MB TEMPERATURES...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD INCLINE MORE TOWARD SNOW
AFTER AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

ON SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
NUDGES INTO THE AREA.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE DAYS FOR FIRE POTENTIAL...BUT
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN.  BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GEM FALLING
BETWEEN THE TWO.  CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL CONSISTENCY IS BETTER ESTABLISHED.  THE
COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
/THOUGH LESS SO/ FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH
COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO KOMA 01-05Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270452
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE WEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED BEHIND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NEB.  850MB ANALYSIS
INDICATED A LOW IN WESTERN ONT...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/CENTRAL
NEB TOWARD NM...AND WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 TO -10C
SPILLING INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  PRECIPITATION /SOME RAIN AND SOME
SNOW/ HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIP...WITH LIGHT
RAIN ABLE TO TURN TO LIGHT SNOW BASED ON WEBCAMS...BUT WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NOTED SO FAR.  HAVE KEPT MAINLY RAIN MENTION FOR
SOUTHERN CWA 00-03Z...AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50F RIGHT NOW AND
WOULD HAVE TO FALL A WAYS FOR SNOW...AND THINK PRECIP WILL LARGELY
BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND 03Z. ONCE PRECIP EXITS...THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE STREAM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS
DOWNWARD GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  AFTER
SKIRTING INTO NORTHEAST NEB IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW
A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MO RIVER BY AROUND
00Z SATURDAY...SLIDING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AND
OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AND COLDER
850MB TEMPERATURES...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD INCLINE MORE TOWARD SNOW
AFTER AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

ON SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
NUDGES INTO THE AREA.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE DAYS FOR FIRE POTENTIAL...BUT
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN.  BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GEM FALLING
BETWEEN THE TWO.  CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL CONSISTENCY IS BETTER ESTABLISHED.  THE
COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
/THOUGH LESS SO/ FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH
COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO KOMA 01-05Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLBF 270441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER
HIGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. TROUGH THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH ALABAMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT 20Z THURSDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED COLD FRONT EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS WAS WELL COLDER AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT...BUT WITH
THE COLDER AIR...HAD FALLEN AS SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT A RANGE FROM -5C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR 3C OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH A GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL DEVELOPING. ALSO...MOISTURE IN THIS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
THE EAST. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION DOES THE SAME AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS DRY. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT AS THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A
MIX AT THIS TIME...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR EAST
AS A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NEAR BRADY. EAST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER
STAYS IN PLACE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE TOO HIGH SO UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND LOWER IF
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER NIGHT LOWS. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONEIL IN
THE 60S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOW 80S AROUND KIML. SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. CEILINGS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL WITH
VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE STILL
COULD FAVOR RAIN...SNOW OR A MIX IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF
LBF...TIF AND VTN BUT IT LOOKS TO FAVOR SNOW IN THE WEST NEAR OGA.
THE NEWEST OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT RN/SN
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LBF AND VTN TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET AND 3SM AT THOSE SITES.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND
WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS
EASTWARD...THE WIND IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT
12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICTS EACH DAY. THE WINDS MOST DAYS
DON/T CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WHICH COULD HELP KEEP FIRE
DANGER AT BAY...AND AT ELEVATED LEVELS RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THAT
BEING SAID...IF ON ANY OF THESE DAYS HIGHER WINDS END UP
OCCURRING...FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME CRITICAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 270441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER
HIGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. TROUGH THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH ALABAMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT 20Z THURSDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED COLD FRONT EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS WAS WELL COLDER AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT...BUT WITH
THE COLDER AIR...HAD FALLEN AS SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT A RANGE FROM -5C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR 3C OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH A GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL DEVELOPING. ALSO...MOISTURE IN THIS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
THE EAST. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION DOES THE SAME AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS DRY. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT AS THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A
MIX AT THIS TIME...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR EAST
AS A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NEAR BRADY. EAST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER
STAYS IN PLACE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE TOO HIGH SO UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND LOWER IF
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER NIGHT LOWS. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONEIL IN
THE 60S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOW 80S AROUND KIML. SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. CEILINGS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL WITH
VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE STILL
COULD FAVOR RAIN...SNOW OR A MIX IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF
LBF...TIF AND VTN BUT IT LOOKS TO FAVOR SNOW IN THE WEST NEAR OGA.
THE NEWEST OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT RN/SN
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LBF AND VTN TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET AND 3SM AT THOSE SITES.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND
WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS
EASTWARD...THE WIND IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT
12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICTS EACH DAY. THE WINDS MOST DAYS
DON/T CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WHICH COULD HELP KEEP FIRE
DANGER AT BAY...AND AT ELEVATED LEVELS RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THAT
BEING SAID...IF ON ANY OF THESE DAYS HIGHER WINDS END UP
OCCURRING...FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME CRITICAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 270441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER
HIGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. TROUGH THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH ALABAMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT 20Z THURSDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED COLD FRONT EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS WAS WELL COLDER AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT...BUT WITH
THE COLDER AIR...HAD FALLEN AS SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT A RANGE FROM -5C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR 3C OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH A GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL DEVELOPING. ALSO...MOISTURE IN THIS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
THE EAST. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION DOES THE SAME AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS DRY. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT AS THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A
MIX AT THIS TIME...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR EAST
AS A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NEAR BRADY. EAST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER
STAYS IN PLACE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE TOO HIGH SO UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND LOWER IF
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER NIGHT LOWS. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONEIL IN
THE 60S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOW 80S AROUND KIML. SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. CEILINGS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL WITH
VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE STILL
COULD FAVOR RAIN...SNOW OR A MIX IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF
LBF...TIF AND VTN BUT IT LOOKS TO FAVOR SNOW IN THE WEST NEAR OGA.
THE NEWEST OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT RN/SN
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LBF AND VTN TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET AND 3SM AT THOSE SITES.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND
WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS
EASTWARD...THE WIND IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT
12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICTS EACH DAY. THE WINDS MOST DAYS
DON/T CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WHICH COULD HELP KEEP FIRE
DANGER AT BAY...AND AT ELEVATED LEVELS RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THAT
BEING SAID...IF ON ANY OF THESE DAYS HIGHER WINDS END UP
OCCURRING...FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME CRITICAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 270441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER
HIGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. TROUGH THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH ALABAMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT 20Z THURSDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED COLD FRONT EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS WAS WELL COLDER AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT...BUT WITH
THE COLDER AIR...HAD FALLEN AS SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT A RANGE FROM -5C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR 3C OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH A GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL DEVELOPING. ALSO...MOISTURE IN THIS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
THE EAST. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION DOES THE SAME AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS DRY. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT AS THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A
MIX AT THIS TIME...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR EAST
AS A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NEAR BRADY. EAST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER
STAYS IN PLACE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE TOO HIGH SO UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND LOWER IF
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER NIGHT LOWS. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONEIL IN
THE 60S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOW 80S AROUND KIML. SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. CEILINGS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL WITH
VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE STILL
COULD FAVOR RAIN...SNOW OR A MIX IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF
LBF...TIF AND VTN BUT IT LOOKS TO FAVOR SNOW IN THE WEST NEAR OGA.
THE NEWEST OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT RN/SN
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LBF AND VTN TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET AND 3SM AT THOSE SITES.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND
WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS
EASTWARD...THE WIND IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT
12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICTS EACH DAY. THE WINDS MOST DAYS
DON/T CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WHICH COULD HELP KEEP FIRE
DANGER AT BAY...AND AT ELEVATED LEVELS RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THAT
BEING SAID...IF ON ANY OF THESE DAYS HIGHER WINDS END UP
OCCURRING...FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME CRITICAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KGID 270003
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING UPPER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL RAIN AND THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF EVEN
SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS NANCE AND POLK COUNTIES. OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS FURNAS COUNTY
NEBRASKA AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE RIDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAYBE TOO LATE TO DO MUCH FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS. OUR FAR WEST SHOULD WARM UP RATHER DECENTLY INTO THE
50S...BUT HAVE COOLED THE TRI CITIES AND EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW DUE TO BOTH THE WARM
GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ONCE AGAIN...NOT AS MUCH TIME TO HIT THE "FINER DETAILS" AND
POTENTIAL CAVEATS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD AS WOULD NORMALLY
LIKE...SO WILL FOCUS ON THE PRIMARY POINTS:

1) PRECIPITATION-WISE: THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH LIMITED RISK FOR ESPECIALLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
THAT BEING SAID...MAINTAINED EITHER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL SHOW ITS HAND IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME (ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT) BUT FOR NOW FELT
SPRINKLE-WORDING CONTINUED TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GOING
DRY AND MENTIONING A FORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE BOTTOM LINE
THOUGH: BARRING NOTABLE CHANGES...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A "SOAKER" DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

2) TEMPERATURE-WISE: ALTHOUGH NOT AS MARKEDLY AS WHAT THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER DID FOR FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY FOR MOST FOLKS WAS
ALSO WAS INCLINED TO TRIM SATURDAY HIGHS A TOUCH AND POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH (FOR NOW LOWERED GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES). FOR THE
SUNDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HIGHS/LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SPECIFICALLY NOW:
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A WARM-UP...NOW HAVE HIGHS
ONLY AIMED FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO LOW-MID 70S EXTREME WEST (AND
LOW-MID 60S TRI-CITIES). THEN SUNDAY-THURSDAY CURRENTLY ARE AIMED
SOLIDLY WELL INTO THE 60S OR 70S...WITH THE WARMEST 70S SLATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DURING WHICH POSSIBLY A FEW 80S COULD EVEN
SHOW UP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

3) POTENTIAL HAZARDS: THERE IS THE VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THE ECMWF)...HOWEVER IT IS FAR FAR TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. OF LIKELY GREATER
CONCERN OVERALL WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW POTENTIAL AFTERNOONS OF AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL (IF NOT OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL) FIRE DANGER THANKS
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT/BELOW 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
AT/ABOVE 20 MPH. FOR THE TIME BEING...PROBABLY THE NEAREST-TERM
DAY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY BEHIND
A FAIRLY DECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. BECAUSE THIS IS WITHIN 72 HOURS
NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID).

ENDING WITH A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE-SCALE METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS:

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES FOR THE MOST PART...THE LINGERING RAIN CHANCE IN EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY EVENING IS THE "LAST GASP" OF FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
DEPARTING EASTWARD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF KEEP
THE CWA LARGELY DRY...WANTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A SPRINKLE
MENTION IN SOME AREAS AS MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: BROAD AND DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WITH LITTLE FORCING A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: ECMWF KEEPS IT DRY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY PER THE GFS ALONG A
PASSING FRONT. TONS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...CANNOT RULE
OUT A LIGHT SHOWER...PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING TO DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO SHIFT AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
TERMINALS FROM THE WEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 270003
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING UPPER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL RAIN AND THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF EVEN
SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS NANCE AND POLK COUNTIES. OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS FURNAS COUNTY
NEBRASKA AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE RIDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAYBE TOO LATE TO DO MUCH FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS. OUR FAR WEST SHOULD WARM UP RATHER DECENTLY INTO THE
50S...BUT HAVE COOLED THE TRI CITIES AND EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW DUE TO BOTH THE WARM
GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ONCE AGAIN...NOT AS MUCH TIME TO HIT THE "FINER DETAILS" AND
POTENTIAL CAVEATS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD AS WOULD NORMALLY
LIKE...SO WILL FOCUS ON THE PRIMARY POINTS:

1) PRECIPITATION-WISE: THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH LIMITED RISK FOR ESPECIALLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
THAT BEING SAID...MAINTAINED EITHER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL SHOW ITS HAND IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME (ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT) BUT FOR NOW FELT
SPRINKLE-WORDING CONTINUED TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GOING
DRY AND MENTIONING A FORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE BOTTOM LINE
THOUGH: BARRING NOTABLE CHANGES...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A "SOAKER" DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

2) TEMPERATURE-WISE: ALTHOUGH NOT AS MARKEDLY AS WHAT THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER DID FOR FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY FOR MOST FOLKS WAS
ALSO WAS INCLINED TO TRIM SATURDAY HIGHS A TOUCH AND POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH (FOR NOW LOWERED GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES). FOR THE
SUNDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HIGHS/LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SPECIFICALLY NOW:
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A WARM-UP...NOW HAVE HIGHS
ONLY AIMED FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO LOW-MID 70S EXTREME WEST (AND
LOW-MID 60S TRI-CITIES). THEN SUNDAY-THURSDAY CURRENTLY ARE AIMED
SOLIDLY WELL INTO THE 60S OR 70S...WITH THE WARMEST 70S SLATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DURING WHICH POSSIBLY A FEW 80S COULD EVEN
SHOW UP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

3) POTENTIAL HAZARDS: THERE IS THE VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THE ECMWF)...HOWEVER IT IS FAR FAR TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. OF LIKELY GREATER
CONCERN OVERALL WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW POTENTIAL AFTERNOONS OF AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL (IF NOT OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL) FIRE DANGER THANKS
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT/BELOW 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
AT/ABOVE 20 MPH. FOR THE TIME BEING...PROBABLY THE NEAREST-TERM
DAY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY BEHIND
A FAIRLY DECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. BECAUSE THIS IS WITHIN 72 HOURS
NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID).

ENDING WITH A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE-SCALE METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS:

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES FOR THE MOST PART...THE LINGERING RAIN CHANCE IN EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY EVENING IS THE "LAST GASP" OF FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
DEPARTING EASTWARD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF KEEP
THE CWA LARGELY DRY...WANTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A SPRINKLE
MENTION IN SOME AREAS AS MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: BROAD AND DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WITH LITTLE FORCING A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: ECMWF KEEPS IT DRY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY PER THE GFS ALONG A
PASSING FRONT. TONS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...CANNOT RULE
OUT A LIGHT SHOWER...PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING TO DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO SHIFT AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
TERMINALS FROM THE WEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 270003
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING UPPER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL RAIN AND THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF EVEN
SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS NANCE AND POLK COUNTIES. OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS FURNAS COUNTY
NEBRASKA AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE RIDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAYBE TOO LATE TO DO MUCH FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS. OUR FAR WEST SHOULD WARM UP RATHER DECENTLY INTO THE
50S...BUT HAVE COOLED THE TRI CITIES AND EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW DUE TO BOTH THE WARM
GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ONCE AGAIN...NOT AS MUCH TIME TO HIT THE "FINER DETAILS" AND
POTENTIAL CAVEATS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD AS WOULD NORMALLY
LIKE...SO WILL FOCUS ON THE PRIMARY POINTS:

1) PRECIPITATION-WISE: THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH LIMITED RISK FOR ESPECIALLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
THAT BEING SAID...MAINTAINED EITHER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL SHOW ITS HAND IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME (ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT) BUT FOR NOW FELT
SPRINKLE-WORDING CONTINUED TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GOING
DRY AND MENTIONING A FORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE BOTTOM LINE
THOUGH: BARRING NOTABLE CHANGES...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A "SOAKER" DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

2) TEMPERATURE-WISE: ALTHOUGH NOT AS MARKEDLY AS WHAT THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER DID FOR FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY FOR MOST FOLKS WAS
ALSO WAS INCLINED TO TRIM SATURDAY HIGHS A TOUCH AND POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH (FOR NOW LOWERED GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES). FOR THE
SUNDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HIGHS/LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SPECIFICALLY NOW:
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A WARM-UP...NOW HAVE HIGHS
ONLY AIMED FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO LOW-MID 70S EXTREME WEST (AND
LOW-MID 60S TRI-CITIES). THEN SUNDAY-THURSDAY CURRENTLY ARE AIMED
SOLIDLY WELL INTO THE 60S OR 70S...WITH THE WARMEST 70S SLATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DURING WHICH POSSIBLY A FEW 80S COULD EVEN
SHOW UP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

3) POTENTIAL HAZARDS: THERE IS THE VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THE ECMWF)...HOWEVER IT IS FAR FAR TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. OF LIKELY GREATER
CONCERN OVERALL WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW POTENTIAL AFTERNOONS OF AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL (IF NOT OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL) FIRE DANGER THANKS
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT/BELOW 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
AT/ABOVE 20 MPH. FOR THE TIME BEING...PROBABLY THE NEAREST-TERM
DAY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY BEHIND
A FAIRLY DECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. BECAUSE THIS IS WITHIN 72 HOURS
NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID).

ENDING WITH A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE-SCALE METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS:

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES FOR THE MOST PART...THE LINGERING RAIN CHANCE IN EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY EVENING IS THE "LAST GASP" OF FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
DEPARTING EASTWARD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF KEEP
THE CWA LARGELY DRY...WANTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A SPRINKLE
MENTION IN SOME AREAS AS MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: BROAD AND DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WITH LITTLE FORCING A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: ECMWF KEEPS IT DRY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY PER THE GFS ALONG A
PASSING FRONT. TONS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...CANNOT RULE
OUT A LIGHT SHOWER...PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING TO DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO SHIFT AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
TERMINALS FROM THE WEST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KOAX 262324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE WEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED BEHIND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NEB.  850MB ANALYSIS
INDICATED A LOW IN WESTERN ONT...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/CENTRAL
NEB TOWARD NM...AND WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 TO -10C
SPILLING INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  PRECIPITATION /SOME RAIN AND SOME
SNOW/ HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIP...WITH LIGHT
RAIN ABLE TO TURN TO LIGHT SNOW BASED ON WEBCAMS...BUT WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NOTED SO FAR.  HAVE KEPT MAINLY RAIN MENTION FOR
SOUTHERN CWA 00-03Z...AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50F RIGHT NOW AND
WOULD HAVE TO FALL A WAYS FOR SNOW...AND THINK PRECIP WILL LARGELY
BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND 03Z. ONCE PRECIP EXITS...THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE STREAM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS
DOWNWARD GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  AFTER
SKIRTING INTO NORTHEAST NEB IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW
A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MO RIVER BY AROUND
00Z SATURDAY...SLIDING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AND
OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AND COLDER
850MB TEMPERATURES...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD INCLINE MORE TOWARD SNOW
AFTER AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

ON SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
NUDGES INTO THE AREA.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE DAYS FOR FIRE POTENTIAL...BUT
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN.  BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GEM FALLING
BETWEEN THE TWO.  CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL CONSISTENCY IS BETTER ESTABLISHED.  THE
COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
/THOUGH LESS SO/ FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL BRING IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT
04Z BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR BY 06Z MOST AREAS WITH UNLIMITED VSBYS. HOWEVER THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR 12Z. OTHERWISE NORTH
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z...BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 12KT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 262324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE WEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED BEHIND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NEB.  850MB ANALYSIS
INDICATED A LOW IN WESTERN ONT...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/CENTRAL
NEB TOWARD NM...AND WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 TO -10C
SPILLING INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  PRECIPITATION /SOME RAIN AND SOME
SNOW/ HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIP...WITH LIGHT
RAIN ABLE TO TURN TO LIGHT SNOW BASED ON WEBCAMS...BUT WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NOTED SO FAR.  HAVE KEPT MAINLY RAIN MENTION FOR
SOUTHERN CWA 00-03Z...AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50F RIGHT NOW AND
WOULD HAVE TO FALL A WAYS FOR SNOW...AND THINK PRECIP WILL LARGELY
BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND 03Z. ONCE PRECIP EXITS...THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE STREAM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS
DOWNWARD GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  AFTER
SKIRTING INTO NORTHEAST NEB IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW
A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MO RIVER BY AROUND
00Z SATURDAY...SLIDING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AND
OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AND COLDER
850MB TEMPERATURES...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD INCLINE MORE TOWARD SNOW
AFTER AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

ON SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
NUDGES INTO THE AREA.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE DAYS FOR FIRE POTENTIAL...BUT
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN.  BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GEM FALLING
BETWEEN THE TWO.  CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL CONSISTENCY IS BETTER ESTABLISHED.  THE
COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
/THOUGH LESS SO/ FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL BRING IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT
04Z BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR BY 06Z MOST AREAS WITH UNLIMITED VSBYS. HOWEVER THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR 12Z. OTHERWISE NORTH
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z...BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 12KT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 262324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE WEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED BEHIND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NEB.  850MB ANALYSIS
INDICATED A LOW IN WESTERN ONT...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/CENTRAL
NEB TOWARD NM...AND WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 TO -10C
SPILLING INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  PRECIPITATION /SOME RAIN AND SOME
SNOW/ HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIP...WITH LIGHT
RAIN ABLE TO TURN TO LIGHT SNOW BASED ON WEBCAMS...BUT WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NOTED SO FAR.  HAVE KEPT MAINLY RAIN MENTION FOR
SOUTHERN CWA 00-03Z...AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50F RIGHT NOW AND
WOULD HAVE TO FALL A WAYS FOR SNOW...AND THINK PRECIP WILL LARGELY
BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND 03Z. ONCE PRECIP EXITS...THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE STREAM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS
DOWNWARD GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  AFTER
SKIRTING INTO NORTHEAST NEB IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW
A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MO RIVER BY AROUND
00Z SATURDAY...SLIDING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AND
OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AND COLDER
850MB TEMPERATURES...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD INCLINE MORE TOWARD SNOW
AFTER AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

ON SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
NUDGES INTO THE AREA.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE DAYS FOR FIRE POTENTIAL...BUT
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN.  BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GEM FALLING
BETWEEN THE TWO.  CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL CONSISTENCY IS BETTER ESTABLISHED.  THE
COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
/THOUGH LESS SO/ FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL BRING IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT
04Z BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR BY 06Z MOST AREAS WITH UNLIMITED VSBYS. HOWEVER THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR 12Z. OTHERWISE NORTH
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z...BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 12KT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 262324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE WEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED BEHIND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NEB.  850MB ANALYSIS
INDICATED A LOW IN WESTERN ONT...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/CENTRAL
NEB TOWARD NM...AND WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 TO -10C
SPILLING INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  PRECIPITATION /SOME RAIN AND SOME
SNOW/ HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIP...WITH LIGHT
RAIN ABLE TO TURN TO LIGHT SNOW BASED ON WEBCAMS...BUT WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NOTED SO FAR.  HAVE KEPT MAINLY RAIN MENTION FOR
SOUTHERN CWA 00-03Z...AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50F RIGHT NOW AND
WOULD HAVE TO FALL A WAYS FOR SNOW...AND THINK PRECIP WILL LARGELY
BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND 03Z. ONCE PRECIP EXITS...THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE STREAM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS
DOWNWARD GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  AFTER
SKIRTING INTO NORTHEAST NEB IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW
A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MO RIVER BY AROUND
00Z SATURDAY...SLIDING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AND
OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AND COLDER
850MB TEMPERATURES...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD INCLINE MORE TOWARD SNOW
AFTER AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

ON SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
NUDGES INTO THE AREA.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE DAYS FOR FIRE POTENTIAL...BUT
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN.  BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GEM FALLING
BETWEEN THE TWO.  CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL CONSISTENCY IS BETTER ESTABLISHED.  THE
COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
/THOUGH LESS SO/ FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL BRING IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT
04Z BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR BY 06Z MOST AREAS WITH UNLIMITED VSBYS. HOWEVER THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR 12Z. OTHERWISE NORTH
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z...BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 12KT FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DERGAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 262310
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER
HIGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. TROUGH THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH ALABAMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT 20Z THURSDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED COLD FRONT EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS WAS WELL COLDER AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT...BUT WITH
THE COLDER AIR...HAD FALLEN AS SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT A RANGE FROM -5C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR 3C OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH A GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL DEVELOPING. ALSO...MOISTURE IN THIS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
THE EAST. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION DOES THE SAME AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS DRY. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT AS THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A
MIX AT THIS TIME...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR EAST
AS A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NEAR BRADY. EAST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER
STAYS IN PLACE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE TOO HIGH SO UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND LOWER IF
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER NIGHT LOWS. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONEIL IN
THE 60S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOW 80S AROUND KIML. SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. ALTHOUGH THE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...CEILING IS LIKELY TO BE BELOW 2000 FEET AGL
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY BELOW 1000 FEET AGL.

AFTER 00Z...WIND WILL BEGIN DECREASING AND IS LIKELY TO BE 10KT OR
LOWER BY 03Z...BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER 05Z. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS EASTWARD...THE WIND IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT 12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST
OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICTS EACH DAY. THE WINDS MOST DAYS
DON/T CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WHICH COULD HELP KEEP FIRE
DANGER AT BAY...AND AT ELEVATED LEVELS RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THAT
BEING SAID...IF ON ANY OF THESE DAYS HIGHER WINDS END UP
OCCURRING...FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME CRITICAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 262310
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER
HIGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. TROUGH THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH ALABAMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT 20Z THURSDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED COLD FRONT EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS WAS WELL COLDER AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT...BUT WITH
THE COLDER AIR...HAD FALLEN AS SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT A RANGE FROM -5C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR 3C OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH A GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL DEVELOPING. ALSO...MOISTURE IN THIS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
THE EAST. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION DOES THE SAME AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS DRY. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT AS THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A
MIX AT THIS TIME...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR EAST
AS A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NEAR BRADY. EAST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER
STAYS IN PLACE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE TOO HIGH SO UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND LOWER IF
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER NIGHT LOWS. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONEIL IN
THE 60S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOW 80S AROUND KIML. SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. ALTHOUGH THE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...CEILING IS LIKELY TO BE BELOW 2000 FEET AGL
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY BELOW 1000 FEET AGL.

AFTER 00Z...WIND WILL BEGIN DECREASING AND IS LIKELY TO BE 10KT OR
LOWER BY 03Z...BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER 05Z. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS EASTWARD...THE WIND IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT 12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST
OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICTS EACH DAY. THE WINDS MOST DAYS
DON/T CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WHICH COULD HELP KEEP FIRE
DANGER AT BAY...AND AT ELEVATED LEVELS RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THAT
BEING SAID...IF ON ANY OF THESE DAYS HIGHER WINDS END UP
OCCURRING...FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME CRITICAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 262310
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER
HIGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. TROUGH THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH ALABAMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT 20Z THURSDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED COLD FRONT EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS WAS WELL COLDER AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT...BUT WITH
THE COLDER AIR...HAD FALLEN AS SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT A RANGE FROM -5C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR 3C OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH A GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL DEVELOPING. ALSO...MOISTURE IN THIS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
THE EAST. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION DOES THE SAME AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS DRY. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT AS THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A
MIX AT THIS TIME...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR EAST
AS A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NEAR BRADY. EAST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER
STAYS IN PLACE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE TOO HIGH SO UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND LOWER IF
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER NIGHT LOWS. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONEIL IN
THE 60S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOW 80S AROUND KIML. SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. ALTHOUGH THE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...CEILING IS LIKELY TO BE BELOW 2000 FEET AGL
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY BELOW 1000 FEET AGL.

AFTER 00Z...WIND WILL BEGIN DECREASING AND IS LIKELY TO BE 10KT OR
LOWER BY 03Z...BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER 05Z. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS EASTWARD...THE WIND IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT 12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST
OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICTS EACH DAY. THE WINDS MOST DAYS
DON/T CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WHICH COULD HELP KEEP FIRE
DANGER AT BAY...AND AT ELEVATED LEVELS RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THAT
BEING SAID...IF ON ANY OF THESE DAYS HIGHER WINDS END UP
OCCURRING...FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME CRITICAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KGID 262110
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING UPPER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL RAIN AND THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF EVEN
SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS NANCE AND POLK COUNTIES. OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS FURNAS COUNTY
NEBRASKA AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE RIDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAYBE TOO LATE TO DO MUCH FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS. OUR FAR WEST SHOULD WARM UP RATHER DECENTLY INTO THE
50S...BUT HAVE COOLED THE TRI CITIES AND EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW DUE TO BOTH THE WARM
GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ONCE AGAIN...NOT AS MUCH TIME TO HIT THE "FINER DETAILS" AND
POTENTIAL CAVEATS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD AS WOULD NORMALLY
LIKE...SO WILL FOCUS ON THE PRIMARY POINTS:

1) PRECIPITATION-WISE: THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH LIMITED RISK FOR ESPECIALLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
THAT BEING SAID...MAINTAINED EITHER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL SHOW ITS HAND IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME (ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT) BUT FOR NOW FELT
SPRINKLE-WORDING CONTINUED TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GOING
DRY AND MENTIONING A FORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE BOTTOM LINE
THOUGH: BARRING NOTABLE CHANGES...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A "SOAKER" DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

2) TEMPERATURE-WISE: ALTHOUGH NOT AS MARKEDLY AS WHAT THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER DID FOR FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY FOR MOST FOLKS WAS
ALSO WAS INCLINED TO TRIM SATURDAY HIGHS A TOUCH AND POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH (FOR NOW LOWERED GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES). FOR THE
SUNDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HIGHS/LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SPECIFICALLY NOW:
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A WARM-UP...NOW HAVE HIGHS
ONLY AIMED FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO LOW-MID 70S EXTREME WEST (AND
LOW-MID 60S TRI-CITIES). THEN SUNDAY-THURSDAY CURRENTLY ARE AIMED
SOLIDLY WELL INTO THE 60S OR 70S...WITH THE WARMEST 70S SLATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DURING WHICH POSSIBLY A FEW 80S COULD EVEN
SHOW UP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

3) POTENTIAL HAZARDS: THERE IS THE VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THE ECMWF)...HOWEVER IT IS FAR FAR TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. OF LIKELY GREATER
CONCERN OVERALL WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW POTENTIAL AFTERNOONS OF AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL (IF NOT OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL) FIRE DANGER THANKS
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT/BELOW 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
AT/ABOVE 20 MPH. FOR THE TIME BEING...PROBABLY THE NEAREST-TERM
DAY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY BEHIND
A FAIRLY DECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. BECAUSE THIS IS WITHIN 72 HOURS
NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID).

ENDING WITH A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE-SCALE METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS:

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES FOR THE MOST PART...THE LINGERING RAIN CHANCE IN EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY EVENING IS THE "LAST GASP" OF FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
DEPARTING EASTWARD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF KEEP
THE CWA LARGELY DRY...WANTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A SPRINKLE
MENTION IN SOME AREAS AS MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: BROAD AND DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WITH LITTLE FORCING A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: ECMWF KEEPS IT DRY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY PER THE GFS ALONG A
PASSING FRONT. TONS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR NEARBY SHOWERS
AROUND KGRI AND KEAR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES ARE RATHER HIGH
AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WE MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME NEAR SUNSET. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT PRIOR TO THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH AND THEN A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND BEHIND THE LOW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN BACK OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 262110
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING UPPER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL RAIN AND THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF EVEN
SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS NANCE AND POLK COUNTIES. OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS FURNAS COUNTY
NEBRASKA AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE RIDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAYBE TOO LATE TO DO MUCH FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS. OUR FAR WEST SHOULD WARM UP RATHER DECENTLY INTO THE
50S...BUT HAVE COOLED THE TRI CITIES AND EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW DUE TO BOTH THE WARM
GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ONCE AGAIN...NOT AS MUCH TIME TO HIT THE "FINER DETAILS" AND
POTENTIAL CAVEATS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD AS WOULD NORMALLY
LIKE...SO WILL FOCUS ON THE PRIMARY POINTS:

1) PRECIPITATION-WISE: THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH LIMITED RISK FOR ESPECIALLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
THAT BEING SAID...MAINTAINED EITHER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL SHOW ITS HAND IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME (ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT) BUT FOR NOW FELT
SPRINKLE-WORDING CONTINUED TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GOING
DRY AND MENTIONING A FORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE BOTTOM LINE
THOUGH: BARRING NOTABLE CHANGES...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A "SOAKER" DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

2) TEMPERATURE-WISE: ALTHOUGH NOT AS MARKEDLY AS WHAT THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER DID FOR FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY FOR MOST FOLKS WAS
ALSO WAS INCLINED TO TRIM SATURDAY HIGHS A TOUCH AND POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH (FOR NOW LOWERED GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES). FOR THE
SUNDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HIGHS/LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SPECIFICALLY NOW:
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A WARM-UP...NOW HAVE HIGHS
ONLY AIMED FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO LOW-MID 70S EXTREME WEST (AND
LOW-MID 60S TRI-CITIES). THEN SUNDAY-THURSDAY CURRENTLY ARE AIMED
SOLIDLY WELL INTO THE 60S OR 70S...WITH THE WARMEST 70S SLATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DURING WHICH POSSIBLY A FEW 80S COULD EVEN
SHOW UP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

3) POTENTIAL HAZARDS: THERE IS THE VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THE ECMWF)...HOWEVER IT IS FAR FAR TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. OF LIKELY GREATER
CONCERN OVERALL WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW POTENTIAL AFTERNOONS OF AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL (IF NOT OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL) FIRE DANGER THANKS
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT/BELOW 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
AT/ABOVE 20 MPH. FOR THE TIME BEING...PROBABLY THE NEAREST-TERM
DAY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY BEHIND
A FAIRLY DECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. BECAUSE THIS IS WITHIN 72 HOURS
NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID).

ENDING WITH A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE-SCALE METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS:

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES FOR THE MOST PART...THE LINGERING RAIN CHANCE IN EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY EVENING IS THE "LAST GASP" OF FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
DEPARTING EASTWARD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF KEEP
THE CWA LARGELY DRY...WANTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A SPRINKLE
MENTION IN SOME AREAS AS MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: BROAD AND DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WITH LITTLE FORCING A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: ECMWF KEEPS IT DRY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY PER THE GFS ALONG A
PASSING FRONT. TONS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR NEARBY SHOWERS
AROUND KGRI AND KEAR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES ARE RATHER HIGH
AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WE MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME NEAR SUNSET. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT PRIOR TO THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH AND THEN A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND BEHIND THE LOW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN BACK OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 262110
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING UPPER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL RAIN AND THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF EVEN
SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS NANCE AND POLK COUNTIES. OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS FURNAS COUNTY
NEBRASKA AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE RIDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAYBE TOO LATE TO DO MUCH FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS. OUR FAR WEST SHOULD WARM UP RATHER DECENTLY INTO THE
50S...BUT HAVE COOLED THE TRI CITIES AND EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW DUE TO BOTH THE WARM
GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ONCE AGAIN...NOT AS MUCH TIME TO HIT THE "FINER DETAILS" AND
POTENTIAL CAVEATS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD AS WOULD NORMALLY
LIKE...SO WILL FOCUS ON THE PRIMARY POINTS:

1) PRECIPITATION-WISE: THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH LIMITED RISK FOR ESPECIALLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
THAT BEING SAID...MAINTAINED EITHER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL SHOW ITS HAND IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME (ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT) BUT FOR NOW FELT
SPRINKLE-WORDING CONTINUED TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GOING
DRY AND MENTIONING A FORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE BOTTOM LINE
THOUGH: BARRING NOTABLE CHANGES...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A "SOAKER" DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

2) TEMPERATURE-WISE: ALTHOUGH NOT AS MARKEDLY AS WHAT THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER DID FOR FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY FOR MOST FOLKS WAS
ALSO WAS INCLINED TO TRIM SATURDAY HIGHS A TOUCH AND POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH (FOR NOW LOWERED GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES). FOR THE
SUNDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HIGHS/LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SPECIFICALLY NOW:
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A WARM-UP...NOW HAVE HIGHS
ONLY AIMED FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO LOW-MID 70S EXTREME WEST (AND
LOW-MID 60S TRI-CITIES). THEN SUNDAY-THURSDAY CURRENTLY ARE AIMED
SOLIDLY WELL INTO THE 60S OR 70S...WITH THE WARMEST 70S SLATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DURING WHICH POSSIBLY A FEW 80S COULD EVEN
SHOW UP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

3) POTENTIAL HAZARDS: THERE IS THE VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THE ECMWF)...HOWEVER IT IS FAR FAR TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. OF LIKELY GREATER
CONCERN OVERALL WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW POTENTIAL AFTERNOONS OF AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL (IF NOT OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL) FIRE DANGER THANKS
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT/BELOW 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
AT/ABOVE 20 MPH. FOR THE TIME BEING...PROBABLY THE NEAREST-TERM
DAY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY BEHIND
A FAIRLY DECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. BECAUSE THIS IS WITHIN 72 HOURS
NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID).

ENDING WITH A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE-SCALE METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS:

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES FOR THE MOST PART...THE LINGERING RAIN CHANCE IN EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY EVENING IS THE "LAST GASP" OF FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
DEPARTING EASTWARD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF KEEP
THE CWA LARGELY DRY...WANTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A SPRINKLE
MENTION IN SOME AREAS AS MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: BROAD AND DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WITH LITTLE FORCING A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: ECMWF KEEPS IT DRY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY PER THE GFS ALONG A
PASSING FRONT. TONS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR NEARBY SHOWERS
AROUND KGRI AND KEAR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES ARE RATHER HIGH
AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WE MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME NEAR SUNSET. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT PRIOR TO THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH AND THEN A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND BEHIND THE LOW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN BACK OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 262110
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING UPPER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL RAIN AND THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF EVEN
SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS NANCE AND POLK COUNTIES. OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS FURNAS COUNTY
NEBRASKA AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE RIDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAYBE TOO LATE TO DO MUCH FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS. OUR FAR WEST SHOULD WARM UP RATHER DECENTLY INTO THE
50S...BUT HAVE COOLED THE TRI CITIES AND EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW DUE TO BOTH THE WARM
GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ONCE AGAIN...NOT AS MUCH TIME TO HIT THE "FINER DETAILS" AND
POTENTIAL CAVEATS OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD AS WOULD NORMALLY
LIKE...SO WILL FOCUS ON THE PRIMARY POINTS:

1) PRECIPITATION-WISE: THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE
DRY WITH LIMITED RISK FOR ESPECIALLY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.
THAT BEING SAID...MAINTAINED EITHER A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER MEASURABLE PRECIP
POTENTIAL SHOW ITS HAND IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME (ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT) BUT FOR NOW FELT
SPRINKLE-WORDING CONTINUED TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GOING
DRY AND MENTIONING A FORMAL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE BOTTOM LINE
THOUGH: BARRING NOTABLE CHANGES...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A "SOAKER" DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

2) TEMPERATURE-WISE: ALTHOUGH NOT AS MARKEDLY AS WHAT THE SHORT
TERM FORECASTER DID FOR FRIDAY...UNFORTUNATELY FOR MOST FOLKS WAS
ALSO WAS INCLINED TO TRIM SATURDAY HIGHS A TOUCH AND POTENTIALLY
NOT ENOUGH (FOR NOW LOWERED GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES). FOR THE
SUNDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HIGHS/LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE SPECIFICALLY NOW:
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A WARM-UP...NOW HAVE HIGHS
ONLY AIMED FROM UPPER 50S EAST TO LOW-MID 70S EXTREME WEST (AND
LOW-MID 60S TRI-CITIES). THEN SUNDAY-THURSDAY CURRENTLY ARE AIMED
SOLIDLY WELL INTO THE 60S OR 70S...WITH THE WARMEST 70S SLATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DURING WHICH POSSIBLY A FEW 80S COULD EVEN
SHOW UP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

3) POTENTIAL HAZARDS: THERE IS THE VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY (WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THE ECMWF)...HOWEVER IT IS FAR FAR TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. OF LIKELY GREATER
CONCERN OVERALL WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW POTENTIAL AFTERNOONS OF AT
LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL (IF NOT OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL) FIRE DANGER THANKS
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT/BELOW 20-25 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
AT/ABOVE 20 MPH. FOR THE TIME BEING...PROBABLY THE NEAREST-TERM
DAY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY BEHIND
A FAIRLY DECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. BECAUSE THIS IS WITHIN 72 HOURS
NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FIRE DANGER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID).

ENDING WITH A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE-SCALE METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS:

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER RIDGING
DOMINATES FOR THE MOST PART...THE LINGERING RAIN CHANCE IN EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY EVENING IS THE "LAST GASP" OF FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
DEPARTING EASTWARD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF KEEP
THE CWA LARGELY DRY...WANTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A SPRINKLE
MENTION IN SOME AREAS AS MODELS MOVE A PROGRESSIVE/LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: BROAD AND DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WITH LITTLE FORCING A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: ECMWF KEEPS IT DRY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY PER THE GFS ALONG A
PASSING FRONT. TONS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR NEARBY SHOWERS
AROUND KGRI AND KEAR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES ARE RATHER HIGH
AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WE MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME NEAR SUNSET. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT PRIOR TO THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH AND THEN A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND BEHIND THE LOW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN BACK OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 262103
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING UPPER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL RAIN AND THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF EVEN
SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS NANCE AND POLK COUNTIES. OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS FURNAS COUNTY
NEBRASKA AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE RIDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAYBE TOO LATE TO DO MUCH FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS. OUR FAR WEST SHOULD WARM UP RATHER DECENTLY INTO THE
50S...BUT HAVE COOLED THE TRI CITIES AND EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW DUE TO BOTH THE WARM
GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS SECTION WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR NEARBY SHOWERS
AROUND KGRI AND KEAR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES ARE RATHER HIGH
AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WE MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME NEAR SUNSET. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT PRIOR TO THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH AND THEN A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND BEHIND THE LOW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN BACK OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 262103
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING UPPER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL RAIN AND THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF EVEN
SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUCH AS NANCE AND POLK COUNTIES. OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN SOME AREAS SUCH AS FURNAS COUNTY
NEBRASKA AND ROOKS COUNTY KANSAS. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES. THE
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE RIDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
INDICATE GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND MAYBE TOO LATE TO DO MUCH FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS. OUR FAR WEST SHOULD WARM UP RATHER DECENTLY INTO THE
50S...BUT HAVE COOLED THE TRI CITIES AND EASTERN ZONES INTO THE
40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUTSIDE OF TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. AM MORE CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW DUE TO BOTH THE WARM
GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS SECTION WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR NEARBY SHOWERS
AROUND KGRI AND KEAR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES ARE RATHER HIGH
AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WE MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME NEAR SUNSET. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT PRIOR TO THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH AND THEN A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND BEHIND THE LOW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN BACK OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 262051
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER
HIGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. TROUGH THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH ALABAMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT 20Z THURSDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED COLD FRONT EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS WAS WELL COLDER AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT...BUT WITH
THE COLDER AIR...HAD FALLEN AS SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT A RANGE FROM -5C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR 3C OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH A GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL DEVELOPING. ALSO...MOISTURE IN THIS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
THE EAST. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION DOES THE SAME AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS DRY. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT AS THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A
MIX AT THIS TIME...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR EAST
AS A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NEAR BRADY. EAST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER
STAYS IN PLACE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE TOO HIGH SO UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND LOWER IF
NEEDED.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER NIGHT LOWS. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONEIL IN
THE 60S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOW 80S AROUND KIML. SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO THE
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING SEEN ON RADAR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WEBCAMS WERE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WARM
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THEN STALL APPROXIMATELY ALONG OR
JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
AND FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS
BECOMING MVFR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO DROP BELOW MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING BY 18Z FRIDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICTS EACH DAY. THE WINDS MOST DAYS
DON/T CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WHICH COULD HELP KEEP FIRE
DANGER AT BAY...AND AT ELEVATED LEVELS RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THAT
BEING SAID...IF ON ANY OF THESE DAYS HIGHER WINDS END UP
OCCURRING...FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME CRITICAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 262051
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER
HIGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. TROUGH THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH ALABAMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT 20Z THURSDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED COLD FRONT EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS WAS WELL COLDER AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT...BUT WITH
THE COLDER AIR...HAD FALLEN AS SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT A RANGE FROM -5C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR 3C OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH A GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL DEVELOPING. ALSO...MOISTURE IN THIS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
THE EAST. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION DOES THE SAME AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS DRY. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT AS THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A
MIX AT THIS TIME...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR EAST
AS A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NEAR BRADY. EAST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER
STAYS IN PLACE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE TOO HIGH SO UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND LOWER IF
NEEDED.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER NIGHT LOWS. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONEIL IN
THE 60S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOW 80S AROUND KIML. SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO THE
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING SEEN ON RADAR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WEBCAMS WERE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WARM
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THEN STALL APPROXIMATELY ALONG OR
JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
AND FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS
BECOMING MVFR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO DROP BELOW MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING BY 18Z FRIDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICTS EACH DAY. THE WINDS MOST DAYS
DON/T CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WHICH COULD HELP KEEP FIRE
DANGER AT BAY...AND AT ELEVATED LEVELS RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THAT
BEING SAID...IF ON ANY OF THESE DAYS HIGHER WINDS END UP
OCCURRING...FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME CRITICAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KOAX 262015
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE WEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED BEHIND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NEB.  850MB ANALYSIS
INDICATED A LOW IN WESTERN ONT...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/CENTRAL
NEB TOWARD NM...AND WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 TO -10C
SPILLING INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  PRECIPITATION /SOME RAIN AND SOME
SNOW/ HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIP...WITH LIGHT
RAIN ABLE TO TURN TO LIGHT SNOW BASED ON WEBCAMS...BUT WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NOTED SO FAR.  HAVE KEPT MAINLY RAIN MENTION FOR
SOUTHERN CWA 00-03Z...AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50F RIGHT NOW AND
WOULD HAVE TO FALL A WAYS FOR SNOW...AND THINK PRECIP WILL LARGELY
BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND 03Z. ONCE PRECIP EXITS...THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE STREAM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS
DOWNWARD GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  AFTER
SKIRTING INTO NORTHEAST NEB IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW
A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MO RIVER BY AROUND
00Z SATURDAY...SLIDING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AND
OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AND COLDER
850MB TEMPERATURES...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD INCLINE MORE TOWARD SNOW
AFTER AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

ON SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
NUDGES INTO THE AREA.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTH/SOUTEHASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE DAYS FOR FIRE POTENTIAL...BUT
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN.  BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GEM FALLING
BETWEEN THE TWO.  CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL CONSISTENCY IS BETTER ESTABLISHED.  THE
COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
/THOUGH LESS SO/ FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOOK FOR THICKENING CLOUDS FL050-100 AND SOME -RASN OR -RA AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-02Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ONCE THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 4-11KTS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 262015
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE WEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED BEHIND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NEB.  850MB ANALYSIS
INDICATED A LOW IN WESTERN ONT...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/CENTRAL
NEB TOWARD NM...AND WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 TO -10C
SPILLING INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  PRECIPITATION /SOME RAIN AND SOME
SNOW/ HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIP...WITH LIGHT
RAIN ABLE TO TURN TO LIGHT SNOW BASED ON WEBCAMS...BUT WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NOTED SO FAR.  HAVE KEPT MAINLY RAIN MENTION FOR
SOUTHERN CWA 00-03Z...AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50F RIGHT NOW AND
WOULD HAVE TO FALL A WAYS FOR SNOW...AND THINK PRECIP WILL LARGELY
BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND 03Z. ONCE PRECIP EXITS...THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE STREAM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS
DOWNWARD GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  AFTER
SKIRTING INTO NORTHEAST NEB IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW
A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MO RIVER BY AROUND
00Z SATURDAY...SLIDING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AND
OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AND COLDER
850MB TEMPERATURES...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD INCLINE MORE TOWARD SNOW
AFTER AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

ON SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
NUDGES INTO THE AREA.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTH/SOUTEHASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE DAYS FOR FIRE POTENTIAL...BUT
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN.  BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GEM FALLING
BETWEEN THE TWO.  CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL CONSISTENCY IS BETTER ESTABLISHED.  THE
COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
/THOUGH LESS SO/ FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOOK FOR THICKENING CLOUDS FL050-100 AND SOME -RASN OR -RA AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-02Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ONCE THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 4-11KTS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 262015
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE WEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED BEHIND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NEB.  850MB ANALYSIS
INDICATED A LOW IN WESTERN ONT...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/CENTRAL
NEB TOWARD NM...AND WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 TO -10C
SPILLING INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  PRECIPITATION /SOME RAIN AND SOME
SNOW/ HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIP...WITH LIGHT
RAIN ABLE TO TURN TO LIGHT SNOW BASED ON WEBCAMS...BUT WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NOTED SO FAR.  HAVE KEPT MAINLY RAIN MENTION FOR
SOUTHERN CWA 00-03Z...AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50F RIGHT NOW AND
WOULD HAVE TO FALL A WAYS FOR SNOW...AND THINK PRECIP WILL LARGELY
BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND 03Z. ONCE PRECIP EXITS...THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE STREAM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS
DOWNWARD GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  AFTER
SKIRTING INTO NORTHEAST NEB IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW
A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MO RIVER BY AROUND
00Z SATURDAY...SLIDING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AND
OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AND COLDER
850MB TEMPERATURES...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD INCLINE MORE TOWARD SNOW
AFTER AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

ON SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
NUDGES INTO THE AREA.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTH/SOUTEHASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE DAYS FOR FIRE POTENTIAL...BUT
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN.  BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GEM FALLING
BETWEEN THE TWO.  CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL CONSISTENCY IS BETTER ESTABLISHED.  THE
COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
/THOUGH LESS SO/ FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOOK FOR THICKENING CLOUDS FL050-100 AND SOME -RASN OR -RA AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-02Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ONCE THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 4-11KTS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 262015
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS.  SUBJECTIVE
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS IN THE WEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED BEHIND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD NEB.  850MB ANALYSIS
INDICATED A LOW IN WESTERN ONT...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/CENTRAL
NEB TOWARD NM...AND WITH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 TO -10C
SPILLING INTO THE DAKOTAS/MN.  PRECIPITATION /SOME RAIN AND SOME
SNOW/ HAD SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE MILDER WEATHER RETURNS.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIP...WITH LIGHT
RAIN ABLE TO TURN TO LIGHT SNOW BASED ON WEBCAMS...BUT WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION NOTED SO FAR.  HAVE KEPT MAINLY RAIN MENTION FOR
SOUTHERN CWA 00-03Z...AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 50F RIGHT NOW AND
WOULD HAVE TO FALL A WAYS FOR SNOW...AND THINK PRECIP WILL LARGELY
BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND 03Z. ONCE PRECIP EXITS...THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE STREAM SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS
DOWNWARD GIVEN WEAK MIXING AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  AFTER
SKIRTING INTO NORTHEAST NEB IN THE AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW
A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MO RIVER BY AROUND
00Z SATURDAY...SLIDING EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AND
OUT OF THE AREA.  WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING...AND COLDER
850MB TEMPERATURES...PRECIP TYPE SHOULD INCLINE MORE TOWARD SNOW
AFTER AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG/EAST OF THE MO RIVER.

ON SATURDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
NUDGES INTO THE AREA.  WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS AND
SOUTH/SOUTEHASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...WITH A WARMING TREND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE DAYS FOR FIRE POTENTIAL...BUT
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL REMAIN BENIGN.  BY WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION THAN THE ECMWF...WITH THE GEM FALLING
BETWEEN THE TWO.  CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
PRECIPITATION...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW AND JUST INCLUDE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL CONSISTENCY IS BETTER ESTABLISHED.  THE
COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
/THOUGH LESS SO/ FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOOK FOR THICKENING CLOUDS FL050-100 AND SOME -RASN OR -RA AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-02Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ONCE THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 4-11KTS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KGID 261817
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
117 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP
BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PUSHING EAST OF THE PLAINS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE HAVE GRADUALLY PUSHED SE OF THE CWA...LEAVING
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
THE PRIMARY FEATURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS.
NWRLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF INTO THE 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY...THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL...DID
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE REGIONS. ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. KEPT
TIMING OF POPS SIMILAR...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM MANY
MODELS...LEAVING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY. NEAR MIDDAY AND
THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
INTO THE AREA...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE NERN HALF
OF THE CWA. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHEN THIS PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH...KEPT AS
LIQUID...AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOOKS TO BE MORE
SHOWER-LIKE IN NATURE. ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA..CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS OR SPRINKLES. LOW POPS LINGER INTO
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT TIMING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW
THINGS EVOLVE LATER TODAY...IF IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GOING TO
LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING AT
LEAST A MIX OF RA/SN AS TEMPS START FALLING. THE REST OF THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY...DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE HWO...AS TEMPS LOOK
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. SHOULD FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...AS THE TEMP/DPT COMBO IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL STILL IN PLACE TO SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE BEGIN FRIDAY WITH A PROMINENT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS A JET
STREAK MOVES BY...WITH AGREEMENT AMONG NUMEROUS NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT LIGHT QPF IS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THE WEST/NORTH CWA.
THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE MORNING BEFORE IT
GETS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID...WITH ANYTHING MEASURABLE MORE
CONFINED IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. I HELD ONTO SLIGHT
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
JET STREAK COMPLETELY DEPARTS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR BIG TIME QPF HERE.

CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING INTO A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN MILD AS OUR WEATHER
WILL BE COMING FROM THE DIRECTION OF THE PACIFIC...AND AS THE
AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRY WITH NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
TAPPING INTO MUCH MOISTURE...WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF MUCH
PRECIPITATION. KEEP IN MIND THAT WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW THERE MAY
BE A TIME OR TWO OF LOW PRECIPITATION SITUATIONS WHEN LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH QUICKLY...BUT THAT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE. FOR NOW...NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. I WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE OUR
PRIMARY DAY TO LOOK OUT FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS WIND KICKS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.

A CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER THING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A POTENTIAL TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PAST
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE DRY AS WELL.

WITH JUST ENOUGH MUCAPE...WE DO HAVE A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING
THROUGH...AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR NEARBY SHOWERS
AROUND KGRI AND KEAR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES ARE RATHER HIGH
AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WE MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME NEAR SUNSET. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT PRIOR TO THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH AND THEN A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND BEHIND THE LOW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN BACK OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 261817
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
117 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP
BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PUSHING EAST OF THE PLAINS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE HAVE GRADUALLY PUSHED SE OF THE CWA...LEAVING
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
THE PRIMARY FEATURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS.
NWRLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF INTO THE 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY...THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL...DID
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE REGIONS. ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. KEPT
TIMING OF POPS SIMILAR...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM MANY
MODELS...LEAVING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY. NEAR MIDDAY AND
THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
INTO THE AREA...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE NERN HALF
OF THE CWA. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHEN THIS PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH...KEPT AS
LIQUID...AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOOKS TO BE MORE
SHOWER-LIKE IN NATURE. ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA..CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS OR SPRINKLES. LOW POPS LINGER INTO
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT TIMING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW
THINGS EVOLVE LATER TODAY...IF IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GOING TO
LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING AT
LEAST A MIX OF RA/SN AS TEMPS START FALLING. THE REST OF THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY...DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE HWO...AS TEMPS LOOK
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. SHOULD FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...AS THE TEMP/DPT COMBO IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL STILL IN PLACE TO SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE BEGIN FRIDAY WITH A PROMINENT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS A JET
STREAK MOVES BY...WITH AGREEMENT AMONG NUMEROUS NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT LIGHT QPF IS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THE WEST/NORTH CWA.
THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE MORNING BEFORE IT
GETS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID...WITH ANYTHING MEASURABLE MORE
CONFINED IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. I HELD ONTO SLIGHT
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
JET STREAK COMPLETELY DEPARTS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR BIG TIME QPF HERE.

CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING INTO A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN MILD AS OUR WEATHER
WILL BE COMING FROM THE DIRECTION OF THE PACIFIC...AND AS THE
AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRY WITH NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
TAPPING INTO MUCH MOISTURE...WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF MUCH
PRECIPITATION. KEEP IN MIND THAT WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW THERE MAY
BE A TIME OR TWO OF LOW PRECIPITATION SITUATIONS WHEN LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH QUICKLY...BUT THAT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE. FOR NOW...NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. I WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE OUR
PRIMARY DAY TO LOOK OUT FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS WIND KICKS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.

A CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER THING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A POTENTIAL TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PAST
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE DRY AS WELL.

WITH JUST ENOUGH MUCAPE...WE DO HAVE A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING
THROUGH...AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR NEARBY SHOWERS
AROUND KGRI AND KEAR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES ARE RATHER HIGH
AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WE MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME NEAR SUNSET. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT PRIOR TO THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH AND THEN A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND BEHIND THE LOW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN BACK OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 261817
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
117 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP
BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PUSHING EAST OF THE PLAINS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE HAVE GRADUALLY PUSHED SE OF THE CWA...LEAVING
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
THE PRIMARY FEATURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS.
NWRLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF INTO THE 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY...THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL...DID
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE REGIONS. ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. KEPT
TIMING OF POPS SIMILAR...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM MANY
MODELS...LEAVING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY. NEAR MIDDAY AND
THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
INTO THE AREA...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE NERN HALF
OF THE CWA. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHEN THIS PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH...KEPT AS
LIQUID...AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOOKS TO BE MORE
SHOWER-LIKE IN NATURE. ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA..CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS OR SPRINKLES. LOW POPS LINGER INTO
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT TIMING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW
THINGS EVOLVE LATER TODAY...IF IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GOING TO
LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING AT
LEAST A MIX OF RA/SN AS TEMPS START FALLING. THE REST OF THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY...DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE HWO...AS TEMPS LOOK
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. SHOULD FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...AS THE TEMP/DPT COMBO IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL STILL IN PLACE TO SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE BEGIN FRIDAY WITH A PROMINENT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS A JET
STREAK MOVES BY...WITH AGREEMENT AMONG NUMEROUS NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT LIGHT QPF IS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THE WEST/NORTH CWA.
THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE MORNING BEFORE IT
GETS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID...WITH ANYTHING MEASURABLE MORE
CONFINED IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. I HELD ONTO SLIGHT
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
JET STREAK COMPLETELY DEPARTS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR BIG TIME QPF HERE.

CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING INTO A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN MILD AS OUR WEATHER
WILL BE COMING FROM THE DIRECTION OF THE PACIFIC...AND AS THE
AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRY WITH NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
TAPPING INTO MUCH MOISTURE...WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF MUCH
PRECIPITATION. KEEP IN MIND THAT WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW THERE MAY
BE A TIME OR TWO OF LOW PRECIPITATION SITUATIONS WHEN LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH QUICKLY...BUT THAT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE. FOR NOW...NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. I WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE OUR
PRIMARY DAY TO LOOK OUT FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS WIND KICKS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.

A CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER THING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A POTENTIAL TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PAST
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE DRY AS WELL.

WITH JUST ENOUGH MUCAPE...WE DO HAVE A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING
THROUGH...AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR NEARBY SHOWERS
AROUND KGRI AND KEAR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES ARE RATHER HIGH
AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WE MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME NEAR SUNSET. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT PRIOR TO THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH AND THEN A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND BEHIND THE LOW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN BACK OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 261817
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
117 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP
BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PUSHING EAST OF THE PLAINS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE HAVE GRADUALLY PUSHED SE OF THE CWA...LEAVING
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
THE PRIMARY FEATURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS.
NWRLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF INTO THE 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY...THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL...DID
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE REGIONS. ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. KEPT
TIMING OF POPS SIMILAR...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM MANY
MODELS...LEAVING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY. NEAR MIDDAY AND
THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
INTO THE AREA...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE NERN HALF
OF THE CWA. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHEN THIS PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH...KEPT AS
LIQUID...AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOOKS TO BE MORE
SHOWER-LIKE IN NATURE. ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA..CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS OR SPRINKLES. LOW POPS LINGER INTO
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT TIMING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW
THINGS EVOLVE LATER TODAY...IF IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GOING TO
LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING AT
LEAST A MIX OF RA/SN AS TEMPS START FALLING. THE REST OF THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY...DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE HWO...AS TEMPS LOOK
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. SHOULD FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...AS THE TEMP/DPT COMBO IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL STILL IN PLACE TO SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE BEGIN FRIDAY WITH A PROMINENT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS A JET
STREAK MOVES BY...WITH AGREEMENT AMONG NUMEROUS NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT LIGHT QPF IS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THE WEST/NORTH CWA.
THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE MORNING BEFORE IT
GETS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID...WITH ANYTHING MEASURABLE MORE
CONFINED IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. I HELD ONTO SLIGHT
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
JET STREAK COMPLETELY DEPARTS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR BIG TIME QPF HERE.

CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING INTO A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN MILD AS OUR WEATHER
WILL BE COMING FROM THE DIRECTION OF THE PACIFIC...AND AS THE
AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRY WITH NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
TAPPING INTO MUCH MOISTURE...WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF MUCH
PRECIPITATION. KEEP IN MIND THAT WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW THERE MAY
BE A TIME OR TWO OF LOW PRECIPITATION SITUATIONS WHEN LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH QUICKLY...BUT THAT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE. FOR NOW...NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. I WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE OUR
PRIMARY DAY TO LOOK OUT FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS WIND KICKS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.

A CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER THING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A POTENTIAL TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PAST
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE DRY AS WELL.

WITH JUST ENOUGH MUCAPE...WE DO HAVE A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING
THROUGH...AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR NEARBY SHOWERS
AROUND KGRI AND KEAR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES ARE RATHER HIGH
AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WE MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME NEAR SUNSET. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER
VARIABLE WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH A WESTERLY
COMPONENT PRIOR TO THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH AND THEN A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND BEHIND THE LOW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN BACK OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261810
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
110 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
AND TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION...WINDS WITH FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...ALONG
WITH THE WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTH WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE NORTH
TO THE LOWER 40S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF COOL AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH WARM AIR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT. LOOK FOR COOLING TO
TAKE PLACE AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW ALOFT WITH A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN AS IT FALLS. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...TRACE TO 0.05 AND THE MIX SHOULD MELT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOOK FOR THICKENING CLOUDS FL050-100 AND SOME -RASN OR -RA AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-02Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ONCE THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 4-11KTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261810
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
110 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
AND TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION...WINDS WITH FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...ALONG
WITH THE WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTH WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE NORTH
TO THE LOWER 40S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF COOL AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH WARM AIR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT. LOOK FOR COOLING TO
TAKE PLACE AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW ALOFT WITH A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN AS IT FALLS. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...TRACE TO 0.05 AND THE MIX SHOULD MELT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOOK FOR THICKENING CLOUDS FL050-100 AND SOME -RASN OR -RA AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-02Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ONCE THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 4-11KTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261810
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
110 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
AND TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION...WINDS WITH FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...ALONG
WITH THE WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTH WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE NORTH
TO THE LOWER 40S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF COOL AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH WARM AIR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT. LOOK FOR COOLING TO
TAKE PLACE AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW ALOFT WITH A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN AS IT FALLS. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...TRACE TO 0.05 AND THE MIX SHOULD MELT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOOK FOR THICKENING CLOUDS FL050-100 AND SOME -RASN OR -RA AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-02Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ONCE THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 4-11KTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261810
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
110 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
AND TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION...WINDS WITH FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...ALONG
WITH THE WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTH WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE NORTH
TO THE LOWER 40S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF COOL AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH WARM AIR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT. LOOK FOR COOLING TO
TAKE PLACE AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW ALOFT WITH A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN AS IT FALLS. ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...TRACE TO 0.05 AND THE MIX SHOULD MELT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOOK FOR THICKENING CLOUDS FL050-100 AND SOME -RASN OR -RA AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 19Z-02Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ONCE THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT 4-11KTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KLBF 261731
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1231 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WRN
SD/ND AND ERN MT...SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH VALENTINE AND
ONEILL AREAS THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN NEB TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THE MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THE PCPN
ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST 6-7 WEEKS. BUT WE WILL RUN A MODEL BLEND FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AFFECTED AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY TO NEAR
WINNIPEG AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL.
50S TO NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL PLUMES SHOW STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB...20 TO 30
MPH WINDS.

A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO ONTARIO. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HOLDING UP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH INHERITED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR QPF
AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS H85 REMAIN AROUND 0C TO 5C.

A ROBUST PV MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE CWA AS HEIGHTS FALL
AND WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST...ADVECTING A DRIER AIR MASS OFF THE
FRONT RANGE. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR HWY 83 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRY LINE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GO AHEAD AND FAVOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE IS IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BL WELL
MIXED AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE GFS EVEN
HAS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S. A FEW MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY POPS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOISTURE STARVED SETUP.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 18C TO
20C IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PV MAX EJECTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SO HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO THE
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING SEEN ON RADAR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WEBCAMS WERE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WARM
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THEN STALL APPROXIMATELY ALONG OR
JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
AND FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS
BECOMING MVFR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO DROP BELOW MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING BY 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A DRY LINE BULGE SHOULD SWEEP EAST IN THE
AFTN SENDING RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WINDS ALOFT AT 700 MB
INCREASE TO 30 KTS IN THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 MPH. ERRORS IN MODEL TIMING...THE MODELS COULD BE TOO FAST...
MAKE THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG WEST WINDS ACROSS WRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC









000
FXUS63 KLBF 261731
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1231 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WRN
SD/ND AND ERN MT...SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH VALENTINE AND
ONEILL AREAS THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN NEB TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THE MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THE PCPN
ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST 6-7 WEEKS. BUT WE WILL RUN A MODEL BLEND FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AFFECTED AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY TO NEAR
WINNIPEG AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL.
50S TO NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL PLUMES SHOW STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB...20 TO 30
MPH WINDS.

A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO ONTARIO. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HOLDING UP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH INHERITED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR QPF
AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS H85 REMAIN AROUND 0C TO 5C.

A ROBUST PV MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE CWA AS HEIGHTS FALL
AND WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST...ADVECTING A DRIER AIR MASS OFF THE
FRONT RANGE. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR HWY 83 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRY LINE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GO AHEAD AND FAVOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE IS IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BL WELL
MIXED AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE GFS EVEN
HAS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S. A FEW MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY POPS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOISTURE STARVED SETUP.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 18C TO
20C IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PV MAX EJECTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SO HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO THE
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING SEEN ON RADAR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WEBCAMS WERE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WARM
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THEN STALL APPROXIMATELY ALONG OR
JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
AND FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS
BECOMING MVFR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO DROP BELOW MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING BY 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A DRY LINE BULGE SHOULD SWEEP EAST IN THE
AFTN SENDING RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WINDS ALOFT AT 700 MB
INCREASE TO 30 KTS IN THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 MPH. ERRORS IN MODEL TIMING...THE MODELS COULD BE TOO FAST...
MAKE THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG WEST WINDS ACROSS WRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 261731
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1231 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WRN
SD/ND AND ERN MT...SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH VALENTINE AND
ONEILL AREAS THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN NEB TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THE MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THE PCPN
ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST 6-7 WEEKS. BUT WE WILL RUN A MODEL BLEND FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AFFECTED AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY TO NEAR
WINNIPEG AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL.
50S TO NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL PLUMES SHOW STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB...20 TO 30
MPH WINDS.

A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO ONTARIO. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HOLDING UP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH INHERITED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR QPF
AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS H85 REMAIN AROUND 0C TO 5C.

A ROBUST PV MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE CWA AS HEIGHTS FALL
AND WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST...ADVECTING A DRIER AIR MASS OFF THE
FRONT RANGE. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR HWY 83 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRY LINE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GO AHEAD AND FAVOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE IS IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BL WELL
MIXED AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE GFS EVEN
HAS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S. A FEW MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY POPS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOISTURE STARVED SETUP.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 18C TO
20C IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PV MAX EJECTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SO HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO THE
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING SEEN ON RADAR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WEBCAMS WERE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WARM
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THEN STALL APPROXIMATELY ALONG OR
JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
AND FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS
BECOMING MVFR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO DROP BELOW MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING BY 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A DRY LINE BULGE SHOULD SWEEP EAST IN THE
AFTN SENDING RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WINDS ALOFT AT 700 MB
INCREASE TO 30 KTS IN THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 MPH. ERRORS IN MODEL TIMING...THE MODELS COULD BE TOO FAST...
MAKE THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG WEST WINDS ACROSS WRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 261731
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1231 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WRN
SD/ND AND ERN MT...SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH VALENTINE AND
ONEILL AREAS THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN NEB TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THE MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THE PCPN
ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST 6-7 WEEKS. BUT WE WILL RUN A MODEL BLEND FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AFFECTED AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY TO NEAR
WINNIPEG AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL.
50S TO NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL PLUMES SHOW STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB...20 TO 30
MPH WINDS.

A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO ONTARIO. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HOLDING UP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH INHERITED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR QPF
AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS H85 REMAIN AROUND 0C TO 5C.

A ROBUST PV MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE CWA AS HEIGHTS FALL
AND WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST...ADVECTING A DRIER AIR MASS OFF THE
FRONT RANGE. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR HWY 83 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRY LINE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GO AHEAD AND FAVOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE IS IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BL WELL
MIXED AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE GFS EVEN
HAS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S. A FEW MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY POPS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOISTURE STARVED SETUP.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 18C TO
20C IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PV MAX EJECTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SO HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO THE
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING SEEN ON RADAR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WEBCAMS WERE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WARM
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THEN STALL APPROXIMATELY ALONG OR
JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
AND FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH WINDS SWITCHING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH CEILINGS
BECOMING MVFR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO DROP BELOW MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING BY 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A DRY LINE BULGE SHOULD SWEEP EAST IN THE
AFTN SENDING RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WINDS ALOFT AT 700 MB
INCREASE TO 30 KTS IN THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 MPH. ERRORS IN MODEL TIMING...THE MODELS COULD BE TOO FAST...
MAKE THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG WEST WINDS ACROSS WRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC









000
FXUS63 KOAX 261159
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
659 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND MAY BRING A
BIT OF -RA TO KOFK/KLNK BUT MAY STAY JUST WEST OF KOMA. WE HAVE
INCLUDED A PREVAILING GROUP AT KOFK/KLNK AND A VC AT KOMA. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MRNG WITH A BKN MID-LEVEL
DECK THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE CLEARING. NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 12 KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261159
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
659 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND MAY BRING A
BIT OF -RA TO KOFK/KLNK BUT MAY STAY JUST WEST OF KOMA. WE HAVE
INCLUDED A PREVAILING GROUP AT KOFK/KLNK AND A VC AT KOMA. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MRNG WITH A BKN MID-LEVEL
DECK THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE CLEARING. NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 12 KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261159
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
659 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND MAY BRING A
BIT OF -RA TO KOFK/KLNK BUT MAY STAY JUST WEST OF KOMA. WE HAVE
INCLUDED A PREVAILING GROUP AT KOFK/KLNK AND A VC AT KOMA. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MRNG WITH A BKN MID-LEVEL
DECK THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE CLEARING. NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 12 KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261159
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
659 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND MAY BRING A
BIT OF -RA TO KOFK/KLNK BUT MAY STAY JUST WEST OF KOMA. WE HAVE
INCLUDED A PREVAILING GROUP AT KOFK/KLNK AND A VC AT KOMA. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MRNG WITH A BKN MID-LEVEL
DECK THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE CLEARING. NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 12 KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261159
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
659 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND MAY BRING A
BIT OF -RA TO KOFK/KLNK BUT MAY STAY JUST WEST OF KOMA. WE HAVE
INCLUDED A PREVAILING GROUP AT KOFK/KLNK AND A VC AT KOMA. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MRNG WITH A BKN MID-LEVEL
DECK THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE CLEARING. NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 12 KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261159
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
659 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND MAY BRING A
BIT OF -RA TO KOFK/KLNK BUT MAY STAY JUST WEST OF KOMA. WE HAVE
INCLUDED A PREVAILING GROUP AT KOFK/KLNK AND A VC AT KOMA. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MRNG WITH A BKN MID-LEVEL
DECK THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE CLEARING. NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 12 KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KGID 261141
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
641 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP
BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PUSHING EAST OF THE PLAINS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE HAVE GRADUALLY PUSHED SE OF THE CWA...LEAVING
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
THE PRIMARY FEATURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS.
NWRLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF INTO THE 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY...THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL...DID
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE REGIONS. ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. KEPT
TIMING OF POPS SIMILAR...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM MANY
MODELS...LEAVING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY. NEAR MIDDAY AND
THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
INTO THE AREA...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE NERN HALF
OF THE CWA. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHEN THIS PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH...KEPT AS
LIQUID...AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOOKS TO BE MORE
SHOWER-LIKE IN NATURE. ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA..CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS OR SPRINKLES. LOW POPS LINGER INTO
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT TIMING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW
THINGS EVOLVE LATER TODAY...IF IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GOING TO
LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING AT
LEAST A MIX OF RA/SN AS TEMPS START FALLING. THE REST OF THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY...DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE HWO...AS TEMPS LOOK
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. SHOULD FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...AS THE TEMP/DPT COMBO IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL STILL IN PLACE TO SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE BEGIN FRIDAY WITH A PROMINENT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS A JET
STREAK MOVES BY...WITH AGREEMENT AMONG NUMEROUS NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT LIGHT QPF IS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THE WEST/NORTH CWA.
THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE MORNING BEFORE IT
GETS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID...WITH ANYTHING MEASURABLE MORE
CONFINED IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. I HELD ONTO SLIGHT
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
JET STREAK COMPLETELY DEPARTS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR BIG TIME QPF HERE.

CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING INTO A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN MILD AS OUR WEATHER
WILL BE COMING FROM THE DIRECTION OF THE PACIFIC...AND AS THE
AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRY WITH NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
TAPPING INTO MUCH MOISTURE...WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF MUCH
PRECIPITATION. KEEP IN MIND THAT WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW THERE MAY
BE A TIME OR TWO OF LOW PRECIPITATION SITUATIONS WHEN LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH QUICKLY...BUT THAT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE. FOR NOW...NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. I WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE OUR
PRIMARY DAY TO LOOK OUT FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS WIND KICKS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.

A CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER THING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A POTENTIAL TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PAST
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE DRY AS WELL.

WITH JUST ENOUGH MUCAPE...WE DO HAVE A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING
THROUGH...AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND WHILE
HAVE THAT CONTINUING THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN THAT
IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND INSERTED A -SHRA MENTION AT BOTH TERMINAL DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING...BEFORE TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A PASSING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
MORE N/NERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
GUSTY...ESP AT KEAR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 261141
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
641 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP
BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PUSHING EAST OF THE PLAINS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE HAVE GRADUALLY PUSHED SE OF THE CWA...LEAVING
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
THE PRIMARY FEATURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS.
NWRLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF INTO THE 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY...THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL...DID
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE REGIONS. ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. KEPT
TIMING OF POPS SIMILAR...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM MANY
MODELS...LEAVING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY. NEAR MIDDAY AND
THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
INTO THE AREA...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE NERN HALF
OF THE CWA. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHEN THIS PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH...KEPT AS
LIQUID...AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOOKS TO BE MORE
SHOWER-LIKE IN NATURE. ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA..CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS OR SPRINKLES. LOW POPS LINGER INTO
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT TIMING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW
THINGS EVOLVE LATER TODAY...IF IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GOING TO
LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING AT
LEAST A MIX OF RA/SN AS TEMPS START FALLING. THE REST OF THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY...DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE HWO...AS TEMPS LOOK
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. SHOULD FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...AS THE TEMP/DPT COMBO IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL STILL IN PLACE TO SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE BEGIN FRIDAY WITH A PROMINENT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS A JET
STREAK MOVES BY...WITH AGREEMENT AMONG NUMEROUS NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT LIGHT QPF IS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THE WEST/NORTH CWA.
THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE MORNING BEFORE IT
GETS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID...WITH ANYTHING MEASURABLE MORE
CONFINED IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. I HELD ONTO SLIGHT
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
JET STREAK COMPLETELY DEPARTS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR BIG TIME QPF HERE.

CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING INTO A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN MILD AS OUR WEATHER
WILL BE COMING FROM THE DIRECTION OF THE PACIFIC...AND AS THE
AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRY WITH NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
TAPPING INTO MUCH MOISTURE...WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF MUCH
PRECIPITATION. KEEP IN MIND THAT WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW THERE MAY
BE A TIME OR TWO OF LOW PRECIPITATION SITUATIONS WHEN LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH QUICKLY...BUT THAT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE. FOR NOW...NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. I WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE OUR
PRIMARY DAY TO LOOK OUT FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS WIND KICKS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.

A CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER THING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A POTENTIAL TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PAST
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE DRY AS WELL.

WITH JUST ENOUGH MUCAPE...WE DO HAVE A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING
THROUGH...AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND WHILE
HAVE THAT CONTINUING THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN THAT
IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND INSERTED A -SHRA MENTION AT BOTH TERMINAL DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING...BEFORE TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A PASSING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
MORE N/NERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
GUSTY...ESP AT KEAR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KGID 261141
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
641 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP
BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PUSHING EAST OF THE PLAINS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE HAVE GRADUALLY PUSHED SE OF THE CWA...LEAVING
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
THE PRIMARY FEATURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS.
NWRLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF INTO THE 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY...THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL...DID
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE REGIONS. ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. KEPT
TIMING OF POPS SIMILAR...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM MANY
MODELS...LEAVING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY. NEAR MIDDAY AND
THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
INTO THE AREA...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE NERN HALF
OF THE CWA. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHEN THIS PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH...KEPT AS
LIQUID...AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOOKS TO BE MORE
SHOWER-LIKE IN NATURE. ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA..CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS OR SPRINKLES. LOW POPS LINGER INTO
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT TIMING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW
THINGS EVOLVE LATER TODAY...IF IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GOING TO
LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING AT
LEAST A MIX OF RA/SN AS TEMPS START FALLING. THE REST OF THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY...DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE HWO...AS TEMPS LOOK
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. SHOULD FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...AS THE TEMP/DPT COMBO IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL STILL IN PLACE TO SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE BEGIN FRIDAY WITH A PROMINENT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS A JET
STREAK MOVES BY...WITH AGREEMENT AMONG NUMEROUS NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT LIGHT QPF IS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THE WEST/NORTH CWA.
THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE MORNING BEFORE IT
GETS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID...WITH ANYTHING MEASURABLE MORE
CONFINED IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. I HELD ONTO SLIGHT
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
JET STREAK COMPLETELY DEPARTS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR BIG TIME QPF HERE.

CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING INTO A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN MILD AS OUR WEATHER
WILL BE COMING FROM THE DIRECTION OF THE PACIFIC...AND AS THE
AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRY WITH NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
TAPPING INTO MUCH MOISTURE...WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF MUCH
PRECIPITATION. KEEP IN MIND THAT WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW THERE MAY
BE A TIME OR TWO OF LOW PRECIPITATION SITUATIONS WHEN LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH QUICKLY...BUT THAT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE. FOR NOW...NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. I WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE OUR
PRIMARY DAY TO LOOK OUT FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS WIND KICKS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.

A CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER THING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A POTENTIAL TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PAST
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE DRY AS WELL.

WITH JUST ENOUGH MUCAPE...WE DO HAVE A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING
THROUGH...AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND WHILE
HAVE THAT CONTINUING THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN THAT
IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND INSERTED A -SHRA MENTION AT BOTH TERMINAL DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING...BEFORE TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A PASSING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
MORE N/NERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
GUSTY...ESP AT KEAR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KLBF 261110 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WRN
SD/ND AND ERN MT...SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH VALENTINE AND
ONEILL AREAS THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN NEB TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THE MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THE PCPN
ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST 6-7 WEEKS. BUT WE WILL RUN A MODEL BLEND FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AFFECTED AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY TO NEAR
WINNIPEG AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL.
50S TO NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL PLUMES SHOW STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB...20 TO 30
MPH WINDS.

A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO ONTARIO. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HOLDING UP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH INHERITED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR QPF
AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS H85 REMAIN AROUND 0C TO 5C.

A ROBUST PV MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE CWA AS HEIGHTS FALL
AND WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST...ADVECTING A DRIER AIR MASS OFF THE
FRONT RANGE. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR HWY 83 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRY LINE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GO AHEAD AND FAVOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE IS IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BL WELL
MIXED AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE GFS EVEN
HAS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S. A FEW MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY POPS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOISTURE STARVED SETUP.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 18C TO
20C IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PV MAX EJECTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SO HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST AN AREA OF
RAIN WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH KVTN-KANW-KONL THIS MORNING AND
AFTN. THE SREF SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS WITH THE RAIN AND LOCAL IFR IN
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN RAIN/SNOW IS SUGGESTED ACROSS
WRN NEB...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS KOGA/KLBF...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT THIS MORNING. THE WARM FRONT
AND LOW CIGS SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WRN NEB
OVERNIGHT AND BE LOCATED NEAR HIGHWAY 83 BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A DRY LINE BULGE SHOULD SWEEP EAST IN THE
AFTN SENDING RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WINDS ALOFT AT 700 MB
INCREASE TO 30 KTS IN THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 MPH. ERRORS IN MODEL TIMING...THE MODELS COULD BE TOO FAST...
MAKE THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG WEST WINDS ACROSS WRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 261110 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WRN
SD/ND AND ERN MT...SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH VALENTINE AND
ONEILL AREAS THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN NEB TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THE MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THE PCPN
ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST 6-7 WEEKS. BUT WE WILL RUN A MODEL BLEND FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AFFECTED AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY TO NEAR
WINNIPEG AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL.
50S TO NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL PLUMES SHOW STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB...20 TO 30
MPH WINDS.

A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO ONTARIO. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HOLDING UP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH INHERITED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR QPF
AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS H85 REMAIN AROUND 0C TO 5C.

A ROBUST PV MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE CWA AS HEIGHTS FALL
AND WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST...ADVECTING A DRIER AIR MASS OFF THE
FRONT RANGE. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR HWY 83 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRY LINE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GO AHEAD AND FAVOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE IS IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BL WELL
MIXED AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE GFS EVEN
HAS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S. A FEW MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY POPS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOISTURE STARVED SETUP.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 18C TO
20C IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PV MAX EJECTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SO HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST AN AREA OF
RAIN WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH KVTN-KANW-KONL THIS MORNING AND
AFTN. THE SREF SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS WITH THE RAIN AND LOCAL IFR IN
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN RAIN/SNOW IS SUGGESTED ACROSS
WRN NEB...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS KOGA/KLBF...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT THIS MORNING. THE WARM FRONT
AND LOW CIGS SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WRN NEB
OVERNIGHT AND BE LOCATED NEAR HIGHWAY 83 BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A DRY LINE BULGE SHOULD SWEEP EAST IN THE
AFTN SENDING RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WINDS ALOFT AT 700 MB
INCREASE TO 30 KTS IN THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 MPH. ERRORS IN MODEL TIMING...THE MODELS COULD BE TOO FAST...
MAKE THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG WEST WINDS ACROSS WRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 261110 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WRN
SD/ND AND ERN MT...SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH VALENTINE AND
ONEILL AREAS THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN NEB TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THE MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THE PCPN
ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST 6-7 WEEKS. BUT WE WILL RUN A MODEL BLEND FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AFFECTED AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY TO NEAR
WINNIPEG AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL.
50S TO NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL PLUMES SHOW STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB...20 TO 30
MPH WINDS.

A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO ONTARIO. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HOLDING UP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH INHERITED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR QPF
AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS H85 REMAIN AROUND 0C TO 5C.

A ROBUST PV MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE CWA AS HEIGHTS FALL
AND WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST...ADVECTING A DRIER AIR MASS OFF THE
FRONT RANGE. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR HWY 83 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRY LINE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GO AHEAD AND FAVOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE IS IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BL WELL
MIXED AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE GFS EVEN
HAS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S. A FEW MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY POPS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOISTURE STARVED SETUP.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 18C TO
20C IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PV MAX EJECTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SO HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST AN AREA OF
RAIN WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH KVTN-KANW-KONL THIS MORNING AND
AFTN. THE SREF SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS WITH THE RAIN AND LOCAL IFR IN
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN RAIN/SNOW IS SUGGESTED ACROSS
WRN NEB...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS KOGA/KLBF...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT THIS MORNING. THE WARM FRONT
AND LOW CIGS SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WRN NEB
OVERNIGHT AND BE LOCATED NEAR HIGHWAY 83 BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A DRY LINE BULGE SHOULD SWEEP EAST IN THE
AFTN SENDING RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WINDS ALOFT AT 700 MB
INCREASE TO 30 KTS IN THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 MPH. ERRORS IN MODEL TIMING...THE MODELS COULD BE TOO FAST...
MAKE THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG WEST WINDS ACROSS WRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC






000
FXUS63 KGID 260918
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
418 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP
BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PUSHING EAST OF THE PLAINS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE HAVE GRADUALLY PUSHED SE OF THE CWA...LEAVING
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
THE PRIMARY FEATURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS.
NWRLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF INTO THE 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY...THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL...DID
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE REGIONS. ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. KEPT
TIMING OF POPS SIMILAR...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM MANY
MODELS...LEAVING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY. NEAR MIDDAY AND
THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
INTO THE AREA...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE NERN HALF
OF THE CWA. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHEN THIS PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH...KEPT AS
LIQUID...AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOOKS TO BE MORE
SHOWER-LIKE IN NATURE. ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA..CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS OR SPRINKLES. LOW POPS LINGER INTO
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT TIMING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW
THINGS EVOLVE LATER TODAY...IF IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GOING TO
LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING AT
LEAST A MIX OF RA/SN AS TEMPS START FALLING. THE REST OF THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY...DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE HWO...AS TEMPS LOOK
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. SHOULD FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...AS THE TEMP/DPT COMBO IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL STILL IN PLACE TO SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE BEGIN FRIDAY WITH A PROMINENT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS A JET
STREAK MOVES BY...WITH AGREEMENT AMONG NUMEROUS NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT LIGHT QPF IS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THE WEST/NORTH CWA.
THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE MORNING BEFORE IT
GETS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID...WITH ANYTHING MEASURABLE MORE
CONFINED IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. I HELD ONTO SLIGHT
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
JET STREAK COMPLETELY DEPARTS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR BIG TIME QPF HERE.

CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING INTO A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN MILD AS OUR WEATHER
WILL BE COMING FROM THE DIRECTION OF THE PACIFIC...AND AS THE
AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRY WITH NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
TAPPING INTO MUCH MOISTURE...WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF MUCH
PRECIPITATION. KEEP IN MIND THAT WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW THERE MAY
BE A TIME OR TWO OF LOW PRECIPITATION SITUATIONS WHEN LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH QUICKLY...BUT THAT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE. FOR NOW...NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. I WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE OUR
PRIMARY DAY TO LOOK OUT FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS WIND KICKS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.

A CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER THING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A POTENTIAL TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PAST
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE DRY AS WELL.

WITH JUST ENOUGH MUCAPE...WE DO HAVE A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING
THROUGH...AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERN COMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE S/SE THROUGH THE
REGION...AT THIS POINT THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE JUST OFF TO
THE E OF THE TERMINALS...BUT DID PUT IN A VCSH MENTION. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SWRLY FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SWITCHING TO THE NE AS THAT DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 260918
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
418 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP
BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PUSHING EAST OF THE PLAINS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
DISTURBANCE HAVE GRADUALLY PUSHED SE OF THE CWA...LEAVING
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
THE PRIMARY FEATURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS.
NWRLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF INTO THE 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY...THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL...DID
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE REGIONS. ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. KEPT
TIMING OF POPS SIMILAR...WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE SUPPORT FROM MANY
MODELS...LEAVING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY DRY. NEAR MIDDAY AND
THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BETTER FORCING WILL SHIFT
INTO THE AREA...AND THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE NERN HALF
OF THE CWA. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S/50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHEN THIS PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH...KEPT AS
LIQUID...AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOOKS TO BE MORE
SHOWER-LIKE IN NATURE. ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA..CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS OR SPRINKLES. LOW POPS LINGER INTO
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT TIMING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW
THINGS EVOLVE LATER TODAY...IF IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GOING TO
LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING AT
LEAST A MIX OF RA/SN AS TEMPS START FALLING. THE REST OF THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAIN DRY.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY...DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE HWO...AS TEMPS LOOK
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. SHOULD FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA...AS THE TEMP/DPT COMBO IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL STILL IN PLACE TO SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WE BEGIN FRIDAY WITH A PROMINENT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS A JET
STREAK MOVES BY...WITH AGREEMENT AMONG NUMEROUS NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT LIGHT QPF IS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THE WEST/NORTH CWA.
THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE MORNING BEFORE IT
GETS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID...WITH ANYTHING MEASURABLE MORE
CONFINED IN THE FAR WEST/NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. I HELD ONTO SLIGHT
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
JET STREAK COMPLETELY DEPARTS. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR BIG TIME QPF HERE.

CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE IN THE WEST
WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING INTO A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN MILD AS OUR WEATHER
WILL BE COMING FROM THE DIRECTION OF THE PACIFIC...AND AS THE
AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRY WITH NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
TAPPING INTO MUCH MOISTURE...WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF MUCH
PRECIPITATION. KEEP IN MIND THAT WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW THERE MAY
BE A TIME OR TWO OF LOW PRECIPITATION SITUATIONS WHEN LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH QUICKLY...BUT THAT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE. FOR NOW...NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. I WENT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR SUNDAY...AND SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE OUR
PRIMARY DAY TO LOOK OUT FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS WIND KICKS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.

A CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS
BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER THING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A POTENTIAL TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PAST
SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE DRY AS WELL.

WITH JUST ENOUGH MUCAPE...WE DO HAVE A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING
THROUGH...AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERN COMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE S/SE THROUGH THE
REGION...AT THIS POINT THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE JUST OFF TO
THE E OF THE TERMINALS...BUT DID PUT IN A VCSH MENTION. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SWRLY FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SWITCHING TO THE NE AS THAT DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KLBF 260829
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WRN
SD/ND AND ERN MT...SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH VALENTINE AND
ONEILL AREAS THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN NEB TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THE MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THE PCPN
ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST 6-7 WEEKS. BUT WE WILL RUN A MODEL BLEND FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AFFECTED AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY TO NEAR
WINNIPEG AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL.
50S TO NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL PLUMES SHOW STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB...20 TO 30
MPH WINDS.

A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO ONTARIO. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HOLDING UP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH INHERITED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR QPF
AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS H85 REMAIN AROUND 0C TO 5C.

A ROBUST PV MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE CWA AS HEIGHTS FALL
AND WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST...ADVECTING A DRIER AIR MASS OFF THE
FRONT RANGE. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR HWY 83 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRY LINE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GO AHEAD AND FAVOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE IS IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BL WELL
MIXED AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE GFS EVEN
HAS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S. A FEW MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY POPS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOISTURE STARVED SETUP.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 18C TO
20C IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PV MAX EJECTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SO HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL
BRING SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THE WIND
SHIFT WILL OCCUR 20-23Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A DRY LINE BULGE SHOULD SWEEP EAST IN THE
AFTN SENDING RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WINDS ALOFT AT 700 MB
INCREASE TO 30 KTS IN THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 MPH. ERRORS IN MODEL TIMING...THE MODELS COULD BE TOO FAST...
MAKE THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG WEST WINDS ACROSS WRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 260829
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WRN
SD/ND AND ERN MT...SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH VALENTINE AND
ONEILL AREAS THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN NEB TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THE MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THE PCPN
ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST 6-7 WEEKS. BUT WE WILL RUN A MODEL BLEND FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AFFECTED AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY TO NEAR
WINNIPEG AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL.
50S TO NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL PLUMES SHOW STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB...20 TO 30
MPH WINDS.

A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO ONTARIO. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HOLDING UP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH INHERITED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR QPF
AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS H85 REMAIN AROUND 0C TO 5C.

A ROBUST PV MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE CWA AS HEIGHTS FALL
AND WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST...ADVECTING A DRIER AIR MASS OFF THE
FRONT RANGE. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR HWY 83 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRY LINE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GO AHEAD AND FAVOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE IS IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BL WELL
MIXED AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE GFS EVEN
HAS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S. A FEW MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY POPS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOISTURE STARVED SETUP.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 18C TO
20C IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PV MAX EJECTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SO HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL
BRING SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THE WIND
SHIFT WILL OCCUR 20-23Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A DRY LINE BULGE SHOULD SWEEP EAST IN THE
AFTN SENDING RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WINDS ALOFT AT 700 MB
INCREASE TO 30 KTS IN THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 MPH. ERRORS IN MODEL TIMING...THE MODELS COULD BE TOO FAST...
MAKE THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG WEST WINDS ACROSS WRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 260829
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WRN
SD/ND AND ERN MT...SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH VALENTINE AND
ONEILL AREAS THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN NEB TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THE MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THE PCPN
ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST 6-7 WEEKS. BUT WE WILL RUN A MODEL BLEND FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AFFECTED AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY TO NEAR
WINNIPEG AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL.
50S TO NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL PLUMES SHOW STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB...20 TO 30
MPH WINDS.

A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO ONTARIO. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HOLDING UP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH INHERITED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR QPF
AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS H85 REMAIN AROUND 0C TO 5C.

A ROBUST PV MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE CWA AS HEIGHTS FALL
AND WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST...ADVECTING A DRIER AIR MASS OFF THE
FRONT RANGE. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR HWY 83 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRY LINE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GO AHEAD AND FAVOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE IS IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BL WELL
MIXED AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE GFS EVEN
HAS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S. A FEW MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY POPS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOISTURE STARVED SETUP.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 18C TO
20C IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PV MAX EJECTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SO HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL
BRING SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THE WIND
SHIFT WILL OCCUR 20-23Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A DRY LINE BULGE SHOULD SWEEP EAST IN THE
AFTN SENDING RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WINDS ALOFT AT 700 MB
INCREASE TO 30 KTS IN THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 MPH. ERRORS IN MODEL TIMING...THE MODELS COULD BE TOO FAST...
MAKE THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG WEST WINDS ACROSS WRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 260829
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WRN
SD/ND AND ERN MT...SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH VALENTINE AND
ONEILL AREAS THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN NEB TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THE MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THE PCPN
ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST 6-7 WEEKS. BUT WE WILL RUN A MODEL BLEND FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AFFECTED AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY TO NEAR
WINNIPEG AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL.
50S TO NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL PLUMES SHOW STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB...20 TO 30
MPH WINDS.

A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO ONTARIO. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HOLDING UP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH INHERITED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR QPF
AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS H85 REMAIN AROUND 0C TO 5C.

A ROBUST PV MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE CWA AS HEIGHTS FALL
AND WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST...ADVECTING A DRIER AIR MASS OFF THE
FRONT RANGE. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR HWY 83 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRY LINE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GO AHEAD AND FAVOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE IS IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BL WELL
MIXED AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE GFS EVEN
HAS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S. A FEW MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY POPS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOISTURE STARVED SETUP.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 18C TO
20C IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PV MAX EJECTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SO HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL
BRING SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THE WIND
SHIFT WILL OCCUR 20-23Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A DRY LINE BULGE SHOULD SWEEP EAST IN THE
AFTN SENDING RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WINDS ALOFT AT 700 MB
INCREASE TO 30 KTS IN THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 MPH. ERRORS IN MODEL TIMING...THE MODELS COULD BE TOO FAST...
MAKE THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG WEST WINDS ACROSS WRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KOAX 260802
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. COULD BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK 20-01Z...AND AT
KLNK/KOMA 22-03Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260802
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. COULD BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK 20-01Z...AND AT
KLNK/KOMA 22-03Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260802
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. COULD BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK 20-01Z...AND AT
KLNK/KOMA 22-03Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260802
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. COULD BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK 20-01Z...AND AT
KLNK/KOMA 22-03Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 260531
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1231 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOT AS MUCH TIME TO DELVE INTO THE "FINER DETAILS"...SO WILL
FOCUS MORE ON THE BASIC HIGHLIGHTS OF THESE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO "MAJOR" FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE...PROBABLY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WERE
RAISED GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES CWA- WIDE (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST).
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED FAIRLY MODEST (LESS THAN "LIKELY") CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OR SO OF THE CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTATION FOR THURSDAY
DROPS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
BREEZES THAT COULD GUST TO AT LEAST 20 MPH NOW MEETS "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. AS A RESULT...THIS FIRE DANGER
MENTION HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID).

BRIEFLY COVERING THE HERE AND NOW THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN
BEING SLIGHTLY SURPRISED BY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SLEET/ICE
PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN...THE NARROW FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED OUT LARGELY AS EXPECTED
TODAY...DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND MAINLY ONLY LEAVING BEHIND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE OBVIOUSLY
STRUGGLED UNDER THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PASSING
PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST OF THE CWA HAS OR WILL EVENTUALLY TOP OUT
BETWEEN 44-48.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY STILL MIXED
WITH A LITTLE BRIEF SLEET...WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING SOUTH AND
EAST...AND EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE PRECIP FREE
BY 00Z/7PM...ALTHOUGH DID LINGER A LOW POP A FEW HOURS LONGER IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH WITH TIME TONIGHT...AS WIND DECREASE AND TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY AND/OR VARIABLE. NUDGED DOWN LOWS
VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 23-27 DEGREES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALREADY MENTIONED THE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
IN SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR MOST FOLKS
THOUGH...THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3-4 PM OR SO. THIS SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE SPARKED BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STOUT UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THUNDER...THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT
CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THESE SHOWERS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. TEMPS
ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF "SNEAKY SLEET" MIXING IN WITH
ANY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA...BUT LEFT IT ALL
RAIN FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS LARGELY SUPPORT THAT AS BEING
DOMINANT. NOT EVERYBODY WILL SEE THESE PASSING SHOWERS...BUT HAVE
POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST. RAISED HIGHS GENERALLY 3-5
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 50 FAR NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...LINGERED A 20-30 POP FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE COULD FLIRT WITH SLEET OR EVEN SNOW...BUT LEFT
AS RAIN AS PRECIP SHOULD BE DEPARTING BEFORE LOW LEVELS COOL VERY
MUCH. ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING FOR 26-30 MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CONCERN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW 25% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE QUESTION
IS WILL THE WINDS BE STRONG ENOUGH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW LIMITS OR JUST BELOW 20 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARMER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN-WISE...THE AREA WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW
TO A LONG WAVE RIDGE. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE THE CAUSE FOR THE
WARMING AND DRYING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERN COMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE S/SE THROUGH THE
REGION...AT THIS POINT THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE JUST OFF TO
THE E OF THE TERMINALS...BUT DID PUT IN A VCSH MENTION. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SWRLY FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SWITCHING TO THE NE AS THAT DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 260531
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1231 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOT AS MUCH TIME TO DELVE INTO THE "FINER DETAILS"...SO WILL
FOCUS MORE ON THE BASIC HIGHLIGHTS OF THESE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO "MAJOR" FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE...PROBABLY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WERE
RAISED GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES CWA- WIDE (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST).
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED FAIRLY MODEST (LESS THAN "LIKELY") CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OR SO OF THE CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTATION FOR THURSDAY
DROPS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
BREEZES THAT COULD GUST TO AT LEAST 20 MPH NOW MEETS "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. AS A RESULT...THIS FIRE DANGER
MENTION HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID).

BRIEFLY COVERING THE HERE AND NOW THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN
BEING SLIGHTLY SURPRISED BY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SLEET/ICE
PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN...THE NARROW FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED OUT LARGELY AS EXPECTED
TODAY...DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND MAINLY ONLY LEAVING BEHIND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE OBVIOUSLY
STRUGGLED UNDER THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PASSING
PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST OF THE CWA HAS OR WILL EVENTUALLY TOP OUT
BETWEEN 44-48.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY STILL MIXED
WITH A LITTLE BRIEF SLEET...WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING SOUTH AND
EAST...AND EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE PRECIP FREE
BY 00Z/7PM...ALTHOUGH DID LINGER A LOW POP A FEW HOURS LONGER IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH WITH TIME TONIGHT...AS WIND DECREASE AND TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY AND/OR VARIABLE. NUDGED DOWN LOWS
VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 23-27 DEGREES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALREADY MENTIONED THE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
IN SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR MOST FOLKS
THOUGH...THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3-4 PM OR SO. THIS SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE SPARKED BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STOUT UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THUNDER...THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT
CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THESE SHOWERS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. TEMPS
ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF "SNEAKY SLEET" MIXING IN WITH
ANY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA...BUT LEFT IT ALL
RAIN FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS LARGELY SUPPORT THAT AS BEING
DOMINANT. NOT EVERYBODY WILL SEE THESE PASSING SHOWERS...BUT HAVE
POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST. RAISED HIGHS GENERALLY 3-5
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 50 FAR NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...LINGERED A 20-30 POP FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE COULD FLIRT WITH SLEET OR EVEN SNOW...BUT LEFT
AS RAIN AS PRECIP SHOULD BE DEPARTING BEFORE LOW LEVELS COOL VERY
MUCH. ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING FOR 26-30 MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CONCERN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW 25% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE QUESTION
IS WILL THE WINDS BE STRONG ENOUGH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW LIMITS OR JUST BELOW 20 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARMER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN-WISE...THE AREA WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW
TO A LONG WAVE RIDGE. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE THE CAUSE FOR THE
WARMING AND DRYING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERN COMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE S/SE THROUGH THE
REGION...AT THIS POINT THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE JUST OFF TO
THE E OF THE TERMINALS...BUT DID PUT IN A VCSH MENTION. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
SWRLY FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SWITCHING TO THE NE AS THAT DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KLBF 260458
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1158 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ARE FALLING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. WE HAVE UPDATED THE LOWS TONIGHT TO REFLECT
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WILL BE LATER THAN IN THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL
BRING SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THE WIND
SHIFT WILL OCCUR 20-23Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 260458
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1158 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ARE FALLING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. WE HAVE UPDATED THE LOWS TONIGHT TO REFLECT
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WILL BE LATER THAN IN THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL
BRING SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THE WIND
SHIFT WILL OCCUR 20-23Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KOAX 260425
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. COULD BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK 20-01Z...AND AT
KLNK/KOMA 22-03Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260425
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. COULD BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK 20-01Z...AND AT
KLNK/KOMA 22-03Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260425
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. COULD BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK 20-01Z...AND AT
KLNK/KOMA 22-03Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260425
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. COULD BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK 20-01Z...AND AT
KLNK/KOMA 22-03Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KLBF 260357
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1057 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ARE FALLING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. WE HAVE UPDATED THE LOWS TONIGHT TO REFLECT
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WILL BE LATER THAN IN THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING THIS EVENING AS WIND
DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 12KT. FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING SOME LOWER CEILING S AND
VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT
SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT. IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR 18-20Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 260357
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1057 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ARE FALLING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. WE HAVE UPDATED THE LOWS TONIGHT TO REFLECT
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WILL BE LATER THAN IN THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING THIS EVENING AS WIND
DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 12KT. FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING SOME LOWER CEILING S AND
VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT
SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT. IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR 18-20Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 260357
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1057 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ARE FALLING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. WE HAVE UPDATED THE LOWS TONIGHT TO REFLECT
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WILL BE LATER THAN IN THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING THIS EVENING AS WIND
DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 12KT. FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING SOME LOWER CEILING S AND
VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT
SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT. IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR 18-20Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 260357
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1057 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ARE FALLING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. WE HAVE UPDATED THE LOWS TONIGHT TO REFLECT
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WILL BE LATER THAN IN THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING THIS EVENING AS WIND
DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 12KT. FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING SOME LOWER CEILING S AND
VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT
SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT. IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR 18-20Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 252323
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING THIS EVENING AS WIND
DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 12KT. FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING SOME LOWER CEILING S AND
VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT
SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT. IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR 18-20Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 252323
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING THIS EVENING AS WIND
DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 12KT. FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING SOME LOWER CEILING S AND
VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT
SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT. IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR 18-20Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 252323
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING THIS EVENING AS WIND
DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 12KT. FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING SOME LOWER CEILING S AND
VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT
SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT. IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR 18-20Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KGID 252323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOT AS MUCH TIME TO DELVE INTO THE "FINER DETAILS"...SO WILL
FOCUS MORE ON THE BASIC HIGHLIGHTS OF THESE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO "MAJOR" FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE...PROBABLY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WERE
RAISED GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES CWA- WIDE (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST).
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED FAIRLY MODEST (LESS THAN "LIKELY") CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OR SO OF THE CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTATION FOR THURSDAY
DROPS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
BREEZES THAT COULD GUST TO AT LEAST 20 MPH NOW MEETS "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. AS A RESULT...THIS FIRE DANGER
MENTION HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID).

BRIEFLY COVERING THE HERE AND NOW THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN
BEING SLIGHTLY SURPRISED BY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SLEET/ICE
PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN...THE NARROW FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED OUT LARGELY AS EXPECTED
TODAY...DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND MAINLY ONLY LEAVING BEHIND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE OBVIOUSLY
STRUGGLED UNDER THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PASSING
PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST OF THE CWA HAS OR WILL EVENTUALLY TOP OUT
BETWEEN 44-48.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY STILL MIXED
WITH A LITTLE BRIEF SLEET...WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING SOUTH AND
EAST...AND EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE PRECIP FREE
BY 00Z/7PM...ALTHOUGH DID LINGER A LOW POP A FEW HOURS LONGER IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH WITH TIME TONIGHT...AS WIND DECREASE AND TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY AND/OR VARIABLE. NUDGED DOWN LOWS
VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 23-27 DEGREES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALREADY MENTIONED THE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
IN SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR MOST FOLKS
THOUGH...THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3-4 PM OR SO. THIS SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE SPARKED BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STOUT UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THUNDER...THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT
CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THESE SHOWERS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. TEMPS
ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF "SNEAKY SLEET" MIXING IN WITH
ANY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA...BUT LEFT IT ALL
RAIN FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS LARGELY SUPPORT THAT AS BEING
DOMINANT. NOT EVERYBODY WILL SEE THESE PASSING SHOWERS...BUT HAVE
POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST. RAISED HIGHS GENERALLY 3-5
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 50 FAR NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...LINGERED A 20-30 POP FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE COULD FLIRT WITH SLEET OR EVEN SNOW...BUT LEFT
AS RAIN AS PRECIP SHOULD BE DEPARTING BEFORE LOW LEVELS COOL VERY
MUCH. ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING FOR 26-30 MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CONCERN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW 25% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE QUESTION
IS WILL THE WINDS BE STRONG ENOUGH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW LIMITS OR JUST BELOW 20 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARMER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN-WISE...THE AREA WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW
TO A LONG WAVE RIDGE. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE THE CAUSE FOR THE
WARMING AND DRYING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
BY...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 252323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOT AS MUCH TIME TO DELVE INTO THE "FINER DETAILS"...SO WILL
FOCUS MORE ON THE BASIC HIGHLIGHTS OF THESE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO "MAJOR" FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE...PROBABLY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WERE
RAISED GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES CWA- WIDE (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST).
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED FAIRLY MODEST (LESS THAN "LIKELY") CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OR SO OF THE CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTATION FOR THURSDAY
DROPS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
BREEZES THAT COULD GUST TO AT LEAST 20 MPH NOW MEETS "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. AS A RESULT...THIS FIRE DANGER
MENTION HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID).

BRIEFLY COVERING THE HERE AND NOW THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN
BEING SLIGHTLY SURPRISED BY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SLEET/ICE
PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN...THE NARROW FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED OUT LARGELY AS EXPECTED
TODAY...DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND MAINLY ONLY LEAVING BEHIND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE OBVIOUSLY
STRUGGLED UNDER THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PASSING
PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST OF THE CWA HAS OR WILL EVENTUALLY TOP OUT
BETWEEN 44-48.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY STILL MIXED
WITH A LITTLE BRIEF SLEET...WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING SOUTH AND
EAST...AND EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE PRECIP FREE
BY 00Z/7PM...ALTHOUGH DID LINGER A LOW POP A FEW HOURS LONGER IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH WITH TIME TONIGHT...AS WIND DECREASE AND TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY AND/OR VARIABLE. NUDGED DOWN LOWS
VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 23-27 DEGREES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALREADY MENTIONED THE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
IN SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR MOST FOLKS
THOUGH...THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3-4 PM OR SO. THIS SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE SPARKED BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STOUT UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THUNDER...THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT
CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THESE SHOWERS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. TEMPS
ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF "SNEAKY SLEET" MIXING IN WITH
ANY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA...BUT LEFT IT ALL
RAIN FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS LARGELY SUPPORT THAT AS BEING
DOMINANT. NOT EVERYBODY WILL SEE THESE PASSING SHOWERS...BUT HAVE
POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST. RAISED HIGHS GENERALLY 3-5
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 50 FAR NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...LINGERED A 20-30 POP FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE COULD FLIRT WITH SLEET OR EVEN SNOW...BUT LEFT
AS RAIN AS PRECIP SHOULD BE DEPARTING BEFORE LOW LEVELS COOL VERY
MUCH. ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING FOR 26-30 MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CONCERN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW 25% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE QUESTION
IS WILL THE WINDS BE STRONG ENOUGH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW LIMITS OR JUST BELOW 20 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARMER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN-WISE...THE AREA WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW
TO A LONG WAVE RIDGE. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE THE CAUSE FOR THE
WARMING AND DRYING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
BY...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KLBF 252323
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING THIS EVENING AS WIND
DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 12KT. FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING SOME LOWER CEILING S AND
VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT
SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT. IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR 18-20Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KGID 252323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOT AS MUCH TIME TO DELVE INTO THE "FINER DETAILS"...SO WILL
FOCUS MORE ON THE BASIC HIGHLIGHTS OF THESE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO "MAJOR" FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE...PROBABLY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WERE
RAISED GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES CWA- WIDE (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST).
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED FAIRLY MODEST (LESS THAN "LIKELY") CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OR SO OF THE CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTATION FOR THURSDAY
DROPS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
BREEZES THAT COULD GUST TO AT LEAST 20 MPH NOW MEETS "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. AS A RESULT...THIS FIRE DANGER
MENTION HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID).

BRIEFLY COVERING THE HERE AND NOW THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN
BEING SLIGHTLY SURPRISED BY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SLEET/ICE
PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN...THE NARROW FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED OUT LARGELY AS EXPECTED
TODAY...DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND MAINLY ONLY LEAVING BEHIND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE OBVIOUSLY
STRUGGLED UNDER THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PASSING
PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST OF THE CWA HAS OR WILL EVENTUALLY TOP OUT
BETWEEN 44-48.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY STILL MIXED
WITH A LITTLE BRIEF SLEET...WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING SOUTH AND
EAST...AND EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE PRECIP FREE
BY 00Z/7PM...ALTHOUGH DID LINGER A LOW POP A FEW HOURS LONGER IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH WITH TIME TONIGHT...AS WIND DECREASE AND TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY AND/OR VARIABLE. NUDGED DOWN LOWS
VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 23-27 DEGREES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALREADY MENTIONED THE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
IN SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR MOST FOLKS
THOUGH...THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3-4 PM OR SO. THIS SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE SPARKED BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STOUT UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THUNDER...THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT
CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THESE SHOWERS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. TEMPS
ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF "SNEAKY SLEET" MIXING IN WITH
ANY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA...BUT LEFT IT ALL
RAIN FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS LARGELY SUPPORT THAT AS BEING
DOMINANT. NOT EVERYBODY WILL SEE THESE PASSING SHOWERS...BUT HAVE
POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST. RAISED HIGHS GENERALLY 3-5
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 50 FAR NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...LINGERED A 20-30 POP FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE COULD FLIRT WITH SLEET OR EVEN SNOW...BUT LEFT
AS RAIN AS PRECIP SHOULD BE DEPARTING BEFORE LOW LEVELS COOL VERY
MUCH. ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING FOR 26-30 MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CONCERN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW 25% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE QUESTION
IS WILL THE WINDS BE STRONG ENOUGH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW LIMITS OR JUST BELOW 20 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARMER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN-WISE...THE AREA WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW
TO A LONG WAVE RIDGE. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE THE CAUSE FOR THE
WARMING AND DRYING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
BY...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KLBF 252323
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING THIS EVENING AS WIND
DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 12KT. FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING SOME LOWER CEILING S AND
VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT
SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT. IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR 18-20Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KGID 252323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOT AS MUCH TIME TO DELVE INTO THE "FINER DETAILS"...SO WILL
FOCUS MORE ON THE BASIC HIGHLIGHTS OF THESE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO "MAJOR" FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE...PROBABLY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WERE
RAISED GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES CWA- WIDE (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST).
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED FAIRLY MODEST (LESS THAN "LIKELY") CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OR SO OF THE CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTATION FOR THURSDAY
DROPS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
BREEZES THAT COULD GUST TO AT LEAST 20 MPH NOW MEETS "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. AS A RESULT...THIS FIRE DANGER
MENTION HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID).

BRIEFLY COVERING THE HERE AND NOW THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN
BEING SLIGHTLY SURPRISED BY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SLEET/ICE
PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN...THE NARROW FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED OUT LARGELY AS EXPECTED
TODAY...DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND MAINLY ONLY LEAVING BEHIND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE OBVIOUSLY
STRUGGLED UNDER THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PASSING
PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST OF THE CWA HAS OR WILL EVENTUALLY TOP OUT
BETWEEN 44-48.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY STILL MIXED
WITH A LITTLE BRIEF SLEET...WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING SOUTH AND
EAST...AND EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE PRECIP FREE
BY 00Z/7PM...ALTHOUGH DID LINGER A LOW POP A FEW HOURS LONGER IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH WITH TIME TONIGHT...AS WIND DECREASE AND TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY AND/OR VARIABLE. NUDGED DOWN LOWS
VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 23-27 DEGREES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALREADY MENTIONED THE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
IN SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR MOST FOLKS
THOUGH...THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3-4 PM OR SO. THIS SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE SPARKED BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STOUT UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THUNDER...THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT
CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THESE SHOWERS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. TEMPS
ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF "SNEAKY SLEET" MIXING IN WITH
ANY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA...BUT LEFT IT ALL
RAIN FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS LARGELY SUPPORT THAT AS BEING
DOMINANT. NOT EVERYBODY WILL SEE THESE PASSING SHOWERS...BUT HAVE
POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST. RAISED HIGHS GENERALLY 3-5
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 50 FAR NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...LINGERED A 20-30 POP FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE COULD FLIRT WITH SLEET OR EVEN SNOW...BUT LEFT
AS RAIN AS PRECIP SHOULD BE DEPARTING BEFORE LOW LEVELS COOL VERY
MUCH. ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING FOR 26-30 MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CONCERN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW 25% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE QUESTION
IS WILL THE WINDS BE STRONG ENOUGH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW LIMITS OR JUST BELOW 20 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARMER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN-WISE...THE AREA WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW
TO A LONG WAVE RIDGE. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE THE CAUSE FOR THE
WARMING AND DRYING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
BY...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 252323
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
623 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOT AS MUCH TIME TO DELVE INTO THE "FINER DETAILS"...SO WILL
FOCUS MORE ON THE BASIC HIGHLIGHTS OF THESE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO "MAJOR" FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE...PROBABLY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WERE
RAISED GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES CWA- WIDE (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST).
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED FAIRLY MODEST (LESS THAN "LIKELY") CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OR SO OF THE CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTATION FOR THURSDAY
DROPS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
BREEZES THAT COULD GUST TO AT LEAST 20 MPH NOW MEETS "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. AS A RESULT...THIS FIRE DANGER
MENTION HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID).

BRIEFLY COVERING THE HERE AND NOW THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN
BEING SLIGHTLY SURPRISED BY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SLEET/ICE
PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN...THE NARROW FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED OUT LARGELY AS EXPECTED
TODAY...DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND MAINLY ONLY LEAVING BEHIND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE OBVIOUSLY
STRUGGLED UNDER THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PASSING
PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST OF THE CWA HAS OR WILL EVENTUALLY TOP OUT
BETWEEN 44-48.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY STILL MIXED
WITH A LITTLE BRIEF SLEET...WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING SOUTH AND
EAST...AND EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE PRECIP FREE
BY 00Z/7PM...ALTHOUGH DID LINGER A LOW POP A FEW HOURS LONGER IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH WITH TIME TONIGHT...AS WIND DECREASE AND TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY AND/OR VARIABLE. NUDGED DOWN LOWS
VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 23-27 DEGREES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALREADY MENTIONED THE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
IN SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR MOST FOLKS
THOUGH...THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3-4 PM OR SO. THIS SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE SPARKED BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STOUT UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THUNDER...THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT
CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THESE SHOWERS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. TEMPS
ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF "SNEAKY SLEET" MIXING IN WITH
ANY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA...BUT LEFT IT ALL
RAIN FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS LARGELY SUPPORT THAT AS BEING
DOMINANT. NOT EVERYBODY WILL SEE THESE PASSING SHOWERS...BUT HAVE
POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST. RAISED HIGHS GENERALLY 3-5
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 50 FAR NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...LINGERED A 20-30 POP FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE COULD FLIRT WITH SLEET OR EVEN SNOW...BUT LEFT
AS RAIN AS PRECIP SHOULD BE DEPARTING BEFORE LOW LEVELS COOL VERY
MUCH. ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING FOR 26-30 MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CONCERN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW 25% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE QUESTION
IS WILL THE WINDS BE STRONG ENOUGH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW LIMITS OR JUST BELOW 20 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARMER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN-WISE...THE AREA WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW
TO A LONG WAVE RIDGE. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE THE CAUSE FOR THE
WARMING AND DRYING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
BY...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT AFFECT THE TAF SITES 20-24Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 252321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT AFFECT THE TAF SITES 20-24Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT AFFECT THE TAF SITES 20-24Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT AFFECT THE TAF SITES 20-24Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT AFFECT THE TAF SITES 20-24Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT AFFECT THE TAF SITES 20-24Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 252115
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOT AS MUCH TIME TO DELVE INTO THE "FINER DETAILS"...SO WILL
FOCUS MORE ON THE BASIC HIGHLIGHTS OF THESE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO "MAJOR" FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE...PROBABLY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WERE
RAISED GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES CWA- WIDE (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST).
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED FAIRLY MODEST (LESS THAN "LIKELY") CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OR SO OF THE CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTATION FOR THURSDAY
DROPS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
BREEZES THAT COULD GUST TO AT LEAST 20 MPH NOW MEETS "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. AS A RESULT...THIS FIRE DANGER
MENTION HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID).

BRIEFLY COVERING THE HERE AND NOW THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN
BEING SLIGHTLY SURPRISED BY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SLEET/ICE
PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN...THE NARROW FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED OUT LARGELY AS EXPECTED
TODAY...DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND MAINLY ONLY LEAVING BEHIND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE OBVIOUSLY
STRUGGLED UNDER THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PASSING
PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST OF THE CWA HAS OR WILL EVENTUALLY TOP OUT
BETWEEN 44-48.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY STILL MIXED
WITH A LITTLE BRIEF SLEET...WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING SOUTH AND
EAST...AND EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE PRECIP FREE
BY 00Z/7PM...ALTHOUGH DID LINGER A LOW POP A FEW HOURS LONGER IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH WITH TIME TONIGHT...AS WIND DECREASE AND TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY AND/OR VARIABLE. NUDGED DOWN LOWS
VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 23-27 DEGREES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALREADY MENTIONED THE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
IN SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR MOST FOLKS
THOUGH...THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3-4 PM OR SO. THIS SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE SPARKED BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STOUT UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THUNDER...THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT
CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THESE SHOWERS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. TEMPS
ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF "SNEAKY SLEET" MIXING IN WITH
ANY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA...BUT LEFT IT ALL
RAIN FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS LARGELY SUPPORT THAT AS BEING
DOMINANT. NOT EVERYBODY WILL SEE THESE PASSING SHOWERS...BUT HAVE
POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST. RAISED HIGHS GENERALLY 3-5
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 50 FAR NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...LINGERED A 20-30 POP FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE COULD FLIRT WITH SLEET OR EVEN SNOW...BUT LEFT
AS RAIN AS PRECIP SHOULD BE DEPARTING BEFORE LOW LEVELS COOL VERY
MUCH. ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING FOR 26-30 MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CONCERN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW 25% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE QUESTION
IS WILL THE WINDS BE STRONG ENOUGH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW LIMITS OR JUST BELOW 20 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARMER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN-WISE...THE AREA WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW
TO A LONG WAVE RIDGE. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE THE CAUSE FOR THE
WARMING AND DRYING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOW THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A
PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD...ALONG WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY. A RATHER SOLID MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD
CLEARING TAKES PLACE. BEFORE THINGS REALLY CLEAR...AND ALTHOUGH
NOT LIKELY...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF/TRANSIENT MVFR
CEILING PASSING THROUGH. WIND-WISE...THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL
OCCUR RIGHT AWAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL UP
TO AROUND 23KT...BEFORE SPEEDS SLACKEN TO AT-OR-BELOW 10KT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHERLY TONIGHT TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 252115
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOT AS MUCH TIME TO DELVE INTO THE "FINER DETAILS"...SO WILL
FOCUS MORE ON THE BASIC HIGHLIGHTS OF THESE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO "MAJOR" FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE...PROBABLY THE MOST
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WERE
RAISED GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES CWA- WIDE (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST).
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED FAIRLY MODEST (LESS THAN "LIKELY") CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OR SO OF THE CWA.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER EXPECTATION FOR THURSDAY
DROPS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT IN A
HANDFUL OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
BREEZES THAT COULD GUST TO AT LEAST 20 MPH NOW MEETS "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. AS A RESULT...THIS FIRE DANGER
MENTION HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID).

BRIEFLY COVERING THE HERE AND NOW THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN
BEING SLIGHTLY SURPRISED BY A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SLEET/ICE
PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN...THE NARROW FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED OUT LARGELY AS EXPECTED
TODAY...DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND MAINLY ONLY LEAVING BEHIND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE OBVIOUSLY
STRUGGLED UNDER THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PASSING
PRECIPITATION...BUT MOST OF THE CWA HAS OR WILL EVENTUALLY TOP OUT
BETWEEN 44-48.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY STILL MIXED
WITH A LITTLE BRIEF SLEET...WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING SOUTH AND
EAST...AND EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO BE PRECIP FREE
BY 00Z/7PM...ALTHOUGH DID LINGER A LOW POP A FEW HOURS LONGER IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH WITH TIME TONIGHT...AS WIND DECREASE AND TRANSITION
FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY AND/OR VARIABLE. NUDGED DOWN LOWS
VERY SLIGHTLY...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN 23-27 DEGREES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALREADY MENTIONED THE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
IN SOUTHWEST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR MOST FOLKS
THOUGH...THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IS A MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3-4 PM OR SO. THIS SHOWER
POTENTIAL WILL BE SPARKED BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STOUT UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THUNDER...THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT
CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THESE SHOWERS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. TEMPS
ALOFT COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF "SNEAKY SLEET" MIXING IN WITH
ANY RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA...BUT LEFT IT ALL
RAIN FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS LARGELY SUPPORT THAT AS BEING
DOMINANT. NOT EVERYBODY WILL SEE THESE PASSING SHOWERS...BUT HAVE
POPS AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT NORTHEAST. RAISED HIGHS GENERALLY 3-5
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM NEAR 50 FAR NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT: WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...LINGERED A 20-30 POP FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE COULD FLIRT WITH SLEET OR EVEN SNOW...BUT LEFT
AS RAIN AS PRECIP SHOULD BE DEPARTING BEFORE LOW LEVELS COOL VERY
MUCH. ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS...AIMING FOR 26-30 MOST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CONCERN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW 25% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE QUESTION
IS WILL THE WINDS BE STRONG ENOUGH. CURRENTLY THEY ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW LIMITS OR JUST BELOW 20 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY WARMER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN-WISE...THE AREA WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW
TO A LONG WAVE RIDGE. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE THE CAUSE FOR THE
WARMING AND DRYING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOW THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A
PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD...ALONG WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY. A RATHER SOLID MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD
CLEARING TAKES PLACE. BEFORE THINGS REALLY CLEAR...AND ALTHOUGH
NOT LIKELY...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF/TRANSIENT MVFR
CEILING PASSING THROUGH. WIND-WISE...THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL
OCCUR RIGHT AWAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL UP
TO AROUND 23KT...BEFORE SPEEDS SLACKEN TO AT-OR-BELOW 10KT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHERLY TONIGHT TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 252042
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
342 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THEN FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
LATE MORNING OR NEAR 18Z WHEN WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. CLOUDS TODAY WILL DECREASE...WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING OF LITTLE CLOUDS EXPECTED. BUT...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN NEBRASKA SEEING
CEILINGS OF 3-5K FEET AROUND MID MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 252042
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
342 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THEN FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
LATE MORNING OR NEAR 18Z WHEN WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. CLOUDS TODAY WILL DECREASE...WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING OF LITTLE CLOUDS EXPECTED. BUT...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN NEBRASKA SEEING
CEILINGS OF 3-5K FEET AROUND MID MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 252042
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
342 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THEN FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
LATE MORNING OR NEAR 18Z WHEN WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. CLOUDS TODAY WILL DECREASE...WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING OF LITTLE CLOUDS EXPECTED. BUT...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN NEBRASKA SEEING
CEILINGS OF 3-5K FEET AROUND MID MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 252042
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
342 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THEN FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
LATE MORNING OR NEAR 18Z WHEN WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. CLOUDS TODAY WILL DECREASE...WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING OF LITTLE CLOUDS EXPECTED. BUT...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN NEBRASKA SEEING
CEILINGS OF 3-5K FEET AROUND MID MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KOAX 252037
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
337 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. KLNK IS ON THE
NORTH END OF THE PRECIP AREA...AND THIS PRECIPITATION SINKS SOUTH
OF THE AREA...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. VFR WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOR NOW THERE IS SOME WIND
ALOFT THAT MAY KEEP IT MIXED ENOUGH AND CAN RE-ASSESS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252037
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
337 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. KLNK IS ON THE
NORTH END OF THE PRECIP AREA...AND THIS PRECIPITATION SINKS SOUTH
OF THE AREA...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. VFR WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOR NOW THERE IS SOME WIND
ALOFT THAT MAY KEEP IT MIXED ENOUGH AND CAN RE-ASSESS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252037
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
337 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. KLNK IS ON THE
NORTH END OF THE PRECIP AREA...AND THIS PRECIPITATION SINKS SOUTH
OF THE AREA...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. VFR WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOR NOW THERE IS SOME WIND
ALOFT THAT MAY KEEP IT MIXED ENOUGH AND CAN RE-ASSESS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252037
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
337 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIP CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK...THEN THE START OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
STORIES IN THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND WAS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND OVER TOP OF COOL SURFACE LAYER WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THIS AREA WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH
AXIS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST. COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATER THIS
EVENING...SO EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

ON THURSDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THUS CORE OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. QUICK BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SATURATION
AND PRECIP BY NOON OR SO IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A SUFFICIENT WARM
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT MELTING THUS RAIN...BUT PERIODS
OF ROBUST LIFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BURSTS OF SNOW WHICH COULD
REACH THE GROUND BEFORE MELTING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUICK RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND
COULD BRUSH FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS AT THIS
TIME FAVOR RAIN IN THE EVENING WITH AN EVENTUAL CHANGE TO SNOW AS
WET BULB COOLING OCCURS IN THE SURFACE LAYER. QPF LOOKS LOW AS WE
ARE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PRECIP SHIELD...THUS ANY SNOW THAT DOES
OCCUR SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE TOO MUCH.

WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE MORE ROBUST WARMING WILL
STILL BE TO OUR WEST...BUT A REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS FLOW
ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST OR NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERLY...AND A
GENERAL RISE IN HEIGHTS OCCURS. THERE MAY BE SOME HICCUPS IN THIS
SCENARIO AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE DIFFERENCES COMES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GFS ROLLS A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUBSEQUENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER...AND DEVELOPS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CLOSE TO THE GFS IN REGARDS TO
TIMING...BUT PRODUCES RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD
EASILY SEE THAT TIMING SLIPPING BACK INTO PART OF SUNDAY.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
MOST PART AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TO ONE 12-HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SUNDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 70S MOST
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL REACH THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. KLNK IS ON THE
NORTH END OF THE PRECIP AREA...AND THIS PRECIPITATION SINKS SOUTH
OF THE AREA...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. VFR WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOR NOW THERE IS SOME WIND
ALOFT THAT MAY KEEP IT MIXED ENOUGH AND CAN RE-ASSESS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 251829
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
129 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GRAND FORKS ND WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NCTRL NEBR. AN AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXTENDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEASTERN CO INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEBR...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN NEBR. STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE ONL AND ODX AREAS INTO ERN NEBR
AND NERN KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR CLOUD...PRECIPITATION...AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER COLORADO. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS SLOWLY SINKING TO
THE SOUTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOCAL AREA...KEPT
THE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL
MORNING SO DOUBTFUL ON ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOCALLY. DID
CHANGE THE WEATHER TYPE TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS LAPS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE WET BULB TRACE NEAR OR BELOW 0C. ALSO...TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH KIML DOWN TO 35 DEGREES NOW AND REPORTING SNOW.

AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
AS CLOUDS ARE STILL WELL IN PLACE...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILE SATELLITE DOES INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO THIN OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SO DO EXPECT SUNSHINE TO
WARM THINGS UP A BIT. ANOTHER QUESTION THOUGH IS STRATUS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WHEN IT WILL BREAK UP. ONCE THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT...THE SUN
MAY HELP TO START THE PROCESS SO STILL THINKING THE SUN WILL SHINE
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FA AT 12Z. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY 14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTN HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WY WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO SRN NEBR AND KS TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE POPS ARE IN
AGREEMENT BY LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS. SO FAR THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NCTRL BY MIDDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SW
NEBR BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 40S NCTRL AND 50 TO 55
SOUTHWEST...WHICH COME IN NEAR LATEST AVBL RAP13 AND HRRR 2M TEMPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS. LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 20S AS SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT QPF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINING DRY. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE SPENT
TRYING TO SATURATE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY. H85
TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-14C OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MID-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A WARM SATURDAY. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INTO THE LOW 80S AND THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE 70S. MAX T GRID WAS
NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...AND MAY NEED
FURTHER WARMING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SEND A FRONT
THROUGH NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS FILLS
IN BEHIND IT. EXPECTING SUNDAY HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THEN FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
LATE MORNING OR NEAR 18Z WHEN WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. CLOUDS TODAY WILL DECREASE...WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING OF LITTLE CLOUDS EXPECTED. BUT...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN NEBRASKA SEEING
CEILINGS OF 3-5K FEET AROUND MID MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOWS AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER WITH DRY
FUELS AND NW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY
HIGH TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE MET BY THIS WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RH 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 204 AND 210 ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST. THE
PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT NEAR 10 KTS. ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
10 TO 20 MPH WITH MIN RH 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN
ELEVATED ON MONDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 AND MIN RH AS LOW AS
20 PERCENT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 251829
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
129 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GRAND FORKS ND WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NCTRL NEBR. AN AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXTENDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEASTERN CO INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEBR...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN NEBR. STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE ONL AND ODX AREAS INTO ERN NEBR
AND NERN KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR CLOUD...PRECIPITATION...AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER COLORADO. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS SLOWLY SINKING TO
THE SOUTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOCAL AREA...KEPT
THE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL
MORNING SO DOUBTFUL ON ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOCALLY. DID
CHANGE THE WEATHER TYPE TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS LAPS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE WET BULB TRACE NEAR OR BELOW 0C. ALSO...TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH KIML DOWN TO 35 DEGREES NOW AND REPORTING SNOW.

AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
AS CLOUDS ARE STILL WELL IN PLACE...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILE SATELLITE DOES INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO THIN OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SO DO EXPECT SUNSHINE TO
WARM THINGS UP A BIT. ANOTHER QUESTION THOUGH IS STRATUS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WHEN IT WILL BREAK UP. ONCE THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT...THE SUN
MAY HELP TO START THE PROCESS SO STILL THINKING THE SUN WILL SHINE
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FA AT 12Z. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY 14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTN HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WY WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO SRN NEBR AND KS TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE POPS ARE IN
AGREEMENT BY LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS. SO FAR THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NCTRL BY MIDDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SW
NEBR BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 40S NCTRL AND 50 TO 55
SOUTHWEST...WHICH COME IN NEAR LATEST AVBL RAP13 AND HRRR 2M TEMPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS. LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 20S AS SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT QPF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINING DRY. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE SPENT
TRYING TO SATURATE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY. H85
TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-14C OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MID-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A WARM SATURDAY. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INTO THE LOW 80S AND THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE 70S. MAX T GRID WAS
NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...AND MAY NEED
FURTHER WARMING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SEND A FRONT
THROUGH NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS FILLS
IN BEHIND IT. EXPECTING SUNDAY HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THEN FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
LATE MORNING OR NEAR 18Z WHEN WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. CLOUDS TODAY WILL DECREASE...WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING OF LITTLE CLOUDS EXPECTED. BUT...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN NEBRASKA SEEING
CEILINGS OF 3-5K FEET AROUND MID MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOWS AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER WITH DRY
FUELS AND NW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY
HIGH TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE MET BY THIS WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RH 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 204 AND 210 ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST. THE
PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT NEAR 10 KTS. ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
10 TO 20 MPH WITH MIN RH 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN
ELEVATED ON MONDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 AND MIN RH AS LOW AS
20 PERCENT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KGID 251756
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AS EXPECTED...THE MAIN GENERALLY WEST-EAST PRECIP BAND IS SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND WILL FOCUS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY
6 CORRIDOR INTO KS ZONES THE REST OF THE DAY WHILE AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 ARE ALL BUT FINISHED. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
BE RAIN...WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS (INCLUDING RIGHT OUT OF OUR
WINDOW) OF SOME VERY SMALL SLEET PELLETS AND EVEN A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN...AS THE LOW-LEVEL PROFILE JUST ISN/T QUITE WARM ENOUGH
TO FULLY MELT THINGS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED A "VERY LIGHT
SLEET" MENTION ALONG WITH THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
NOT FORMALLY MENTION ANY SNOW. THANKFULLY...WITH SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING ANY VERY LIGHT SLEET SHOULD
ESSENTIALLY BE "ZERO IMPACT". ALSO UPPED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT
TERRITORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS "PROVE" THAT LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NECESSARY.

TEMP-WISE...WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CWA HAS EFFECTIVELY
NEARED THEIR HIGH FOR THE DAY...CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THIS FIRST DAY SHIFT UPDATE:

1) NOW THAT A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND HAS SET UP
IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION MAINLY NEAR THE I-80 AND HIGHWAY 6
CORRIDORS...HAVE GREATLY INCREASED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH MID-DAY IN THIS AREA. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY SINK SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN
INCREASING POPS FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE. FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY AROUND 2-3 PM AT THE LATEST.
AMOUNT-WISE...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF HARDLY ANYBODY SEES MORE THAN
5-10 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.

2) WITH PLENTIFUL MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
(ALTHOUGH STARTING TO THIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
NORTH)...NOT TO MENTION STEADY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GO MUCH OF
ANYWHERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY SEE THEIR
HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...AM STILL
EXPECTING MOST OF THE CWA TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY TOP OUT IN THE 45-50
RANGE WITH ANY MID-50S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHERN KS ZONES...BUT
SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 45...ESPECIALLY COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AUTOMATED SENSORS AND WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOW THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A
PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD...ALONG WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY. A RATHER SOLID MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD
CLEARING TAKES PLACE. BEFORE THINGS REALLY CLEAR...AND ALTHOUGH
NOT LIKELY...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF/TRANSIENT MVFR
CEILING PASSING THROUGH. WIND-WISE...THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL
OCCUR RIGHT AWAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL UP
TO AROUND 23KT...BEFORE SPEEDS SLACKEN TO AT-OR-BELOW 10KT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHERLY TONIGHT TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 251756
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AS EXPECTED...THE MAIN GENERALLY WEST-EAST PRECIP BAND IS SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND WILL FOCUS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY
6 CORRIDOR INTO KS ZONES THE REST OF THE DAY WHILE AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 ARE ALL BUT FINISHED. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
BE RAIN...WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS (INCLUDING RIGHT OUT OF OUR
WINDOW) OF SOME VERY SMALL SLEET PELLETS AND EVEN A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN...AS THE LOW-LEVEL PROFILE JUST ISN/T QUITE WARM ENOUGH
TO FULLY MELT THINGS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED A "VERY LIGHT
SLEET" MENTION ALONG WITH THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
NOT FORMALLY MENTION ANY SNOW. THANKFULLY...WITH SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING ANY VERY LIGHT SLEET SHOULD
ESSENTIALLY BE "ZERO IMPACT". ALSO UPPED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT
TERRITORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS "PROVE" THAT LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NECESSARY.

TEMP-WISE...WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CWA HAS EFFECTIVELY
NEARED THEIR HIGH FOR THE DAY...CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THIS FIRST DAY SHIFT UPDATE:

1) NOW THAT A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND HAS SET UP
IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION MAINLY NEAR THE I-80 AND HIGHWAY 6
CORRIDORS...HAVE GREATLY INCREASED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH MID-DAY IN THIS AREA. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY SINK SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN
INCREASING POPS FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE. FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY AROUND 2-3 PM AT THE LATEST.
AMOUNT-WISE...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF HARDLY ANYBODY SEES MORE THAN
5-10 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.

2) WITH PLENTIFUL MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
(ALTHOUGH STARTING TO THIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
NORTH)...NOT TO MENTION STEADY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GO MUCH OF
ANYWHERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY SEE THEIR
HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...AM STILL
EXPECTING MOST OF THE CWA TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY TOP OUT IN THE 45-50
RANGE WITH ANY MID-50S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHERN KS ZONES...BUT
SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 45...ESPECIALLY COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AUTOMATED SENSORS AND WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOW THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A
PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD...ALONG WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY. A RATHER SOLID MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD
CLEARING TAKES PLACE. BEFORE THINGS REALLY CLEAR...AND ALTHOUGH
NOT LIKELY...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF/TRANSIENT MVFR
CEILING PASSING THROUGH. WIND-WISE...THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL
OCCUR RIGHT AWAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL UP
TO AROUND 23KT...BEFORE SPEEDS SLACKEN TO AT-OR-BELOW 10KT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHERLY TONIGHT TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 251756
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AS EXPECTED...THE MAIN GENERALLY WEST-EAST PRECIP BAND IS SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND WILL FOCUS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY
6 CORRIDOR INTO KS ZONES THE REST OF THE DAY WHILE AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 ARE ALL BUT FINISHED. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
BE RAIN...WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS (INCLUDING RIGHT OUT OF OUR
WINDOW) OF SOME VERY SMALL SLEET PELLETS AND EVEN A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN...AS THE LOW-LEVEL PROFILE JUST ISN/T QUITE WARM ENOUGH
TO FULLY MELT THINGS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED A "VERY LIGHT
SLEET" MENTION ALONG WITH THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
NOT FORMALLY MENTION ANY SNOW. THANKFULLY...WITH SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING ANY VERY LIGHT SLEET SHOULD
ESSENTIALLY BE "ZERO IMPACT". ALSO UPPED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT
TERRITORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS "PROVE" THAT LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NECESSARY.

TEMP-WISE...WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CWA HAS EFFECTIVELY
NEARED THEIR HIGH FOR THE DAY...CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THIS FIRST DAY SHIFT UPDATE:

1) NOW THAT A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND HAS SET UP
IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION MAINLY NEAR THE I-80 AND HIGHWAY 6
CORRIDORS...HAVE GREATLY INCREASED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH MID-DAY IN THIS AREA. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY SINK SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN
INCREASING POPS FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE. FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY AROUND 2-3 PM AT THE LATEST.
AMOUNT-WISE...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF HARDLY ANYBODY SEES MORE THAN
5-10 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.

2) WITH PLENTIFUL MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
(ALTHOUGH STARTING TO THIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
NORTH)...NOT TO MENTION STEADY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GO MUCH OF
ANYWHERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY SEE THEIR
HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...AM STILL
EXPECTING MOST OF THE CWA TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY TOP OUT IN THE 45-50
RANGE WITH ANY MID-50S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHERN KS ZONES...BUT
SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 45...ESPECIALLY COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AUTOMATED SENSORS AND WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOW THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A
PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD...ALONG WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY. A RATHER SOLID MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD
CLEARING TAKES PLACE. BEFORE THINGS REALLY CLEAR...AND ALTHOUGH
NOT LIKELY...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF/TRANSIENT MVFR
CEILING PASSING THROUGH. WIND-WISE...THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL
OCCUR RIGHT AWAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL UP
TO AROUND 23KT...BEFORE SPEEDS SLACKEN TO AT-OR-BELOW 10KT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHERLY TONIGHT TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 251756
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AS EXPECTED...THE MAIN GENERALLY WEST-EAST PRECIP BAND IS SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND WILL FOCUS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY
6 CORRIDOR INTO KS ZONES THE REST OF THE DAY WHILE AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 ARE ALL BUT FINISHED. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
BE RAIN...WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS (INCLUDING RIGHT OUT OF OUR
WINDOW) OF SOME VERY SMALL SLEET PELLETS AND EVEN A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN...AS THE LOW-LEVEL PROFILE JUST ISN/T QUITE WARM ENOUGH
TO FULLY MELT THINGS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED A "VERY LIGHT
SLEET" MENTION ALONG WITH THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
NOT FORMALLY MENTION ANY SNOW. THANKFULLY...WITH SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING ANY VERY LIGHT SLEET SHOULD
ESSENTIALLY BE "ZERO IMPACT". ALSO UPPED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT
TERRITORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS "PROVE" THAT LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NECESSARY.

TEMP-WISE...WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CWA HAS EFFECTIVELY
NEARED THEIR HIGH FOR THE DAY...CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THIS FIRST DAY SHIFT UPDATE:

1) NOW THAT A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND HAS SET UP
IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION MAINLY NEAR THE I-80 AND HIGHWAY 6
CORRIDORS...HAVE GREATLY INCREASED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH MID-DAY IN THIS AREA. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY SINK SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN
INCREASING POPS FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE. FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY AROUND 2-3 PM AT THE LATEST.
AMOUNT-WISE...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF HARDLY ANYBODY SEES MORE THAN
5-10 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.

2) WITH PLENTIFUL MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
(ALTHOUGH STARTING TO THIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
NORTH)...NOT TO MENTION STEADY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GO MUCH OF
ANYWHERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY SEE THEIR
HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...AM STILL
EXPECTING MOST OF THE CWA TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY TOP OUT IN THE 45-50
RANGE WITH ANY MID-50S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHERN KS ZONES...BUT
SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 45...ESPECIALLY COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AUTOMATED SENSORS AND WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOW THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A
PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD...ALONG WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY. A RATHER SOLID MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD
CLEARING TAKES PLACE. BEFORE THINGS REALLY CLEAR...AND ALTHOUGH
NOT LIKELY...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF/TRANSIENT MVFR
CEILING PASSING THROUGH. WIND-WISE...THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL
OCCUR RIGHT AWAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL UP
TO AROUND 23KT...BEFORE SPEEDS SLACKEN TO AT-OR-BELOW 10KT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHERLY TONIGHT TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 251756
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AS EXPECTED...THE MAIN GENERALLY WEST-EAST PRECIP BAND IS SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTHWARD AND WILL FOCUS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY
6 CORRIDOR INTO KS ZONES THE REST OF THE DAY WHILE AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 ARE ALL BUT FINISHED. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
BE RAIN...WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS (INCLUDING RIGHT OUT OF OUR
WINDOW) OF SOME VERY SMALL SLEET PELLETS AND EVEN A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN...AS THE LOW-LEVEL PROFILE JUST ISN/T QUITE WARM ENOUGH
TO FULLY MELT THINGS. AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED A "VERY LIGHT
SLEET" MENTION ALONG WITH THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
NOT FORMALLY MENTION ANY SNOW. THANKFULLY...WITH SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING ANY VERY LIGHT SLEET SHOULD
ESSENTIALLY BE "ZERO IMPACT". ALSO UPPED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT
TERRITORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS "PROVE" THAT LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NECESSARY.

TEMP-WISE...WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CWA HAS EFFECTIVELY
NEARED THEIR HIGH FOR THE DAY...CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD
RISE SEVERAL MORE DEGREES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY THIN BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THIS FIRST DAY SHIFT UPDATE:

1) NOW THAT A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND HAS SET UP
IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION MAINLY NEAR THE I-80 AND HIGHWAY 6
CORRIDORS...HAVE GREATLY INCREASED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH MID-DAY IN THIS AREA. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY SINK SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN
INCREASING POPS FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE. FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY AROUND 2-3 PM AT THE LATEST.
AMOUNT-WISE...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF HARDLY ANYBODY SEES MORE THAN
5-10 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.

2) WITH PLENTIFUL MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
(ALTHOUGH STARTING TO THIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
NORTH)...NOT TO MENTION STEADY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GO MUCH OF
ANYWHERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY SEE THEIR
HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...AM STILL
EXPECTING MOST OF THE CWA TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY TOP OUT IN THE 45-50
RANGE WITH ANY MID-50S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHERN KS ZONES...BUT
SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 45...ESPECIALLY COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AUTOMATED SENSORS AND WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NOW THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED JUST SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A
PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD...ALONG WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY. A RATHER SOLID MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD
CLEARING TAKES PLACE. BEFORE THINGS REALLY CLEAR...AND ALTHOUGH
NOT LIKELY...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF/TRANSIENT MVFR
CEILING PASSING THROUGH. WIND-WISE...THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL
OCCUR RIGHT AWAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL UP
TO AROUND 23KT...BEFORE SPEEDS SLACKEN TO AT-OR-BELOW 10KT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS DIRECTION TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHERLY TONIGHT TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251742
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1242 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. KLNK IS ON THE
NORTH END OF THE PRECIP AREA...AND THIS PRECIPITATION SINKS SOUTH
OF THE AREA...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. VFR WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOR NOW THERE IS SOME WIND
ALOFT THAT MAY KEEP IT MIXED ENOUGH AND CAN RE-ASSESS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 251742
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1242 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. KLNK IS ON THE
NORTH END OF THE PRECIP AREA...AND THIS PRECIPITATION SINKS SOUTH
OF THE AREA...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. VFR WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOR NOW THERE IS SOME WIND
ALOFT THAT MAY KEEP IT MIXED ENOUGH AND CAN RE-ASSESS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251742
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1242 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. KLNK IS ON THE
NORTH END OF THE PRECIP AREA...AND THIS PRECIPITATION SINKS SOUTH
OF THE AREA...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. VFR WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOR NOW THERE IS SOME WIND
ALOFT THAT MAY KEEP IT MIXED ENOUGH AND CAN RE-ASSESS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 251742
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1242 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. KLNK IS ON THE
NORTH END OF THE PRECIP AREA...AND THIS PRECIPITATION SINKS SOUTH
OF THE AREA...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. VFR WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOR NOW THERE IS SOME WIND
ALOFT THAT MAY KEEP IT MIXED ENOUGH AND CAN RE-ASSESS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KGID 251522
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THIS FIRST DAY SHIFT UPDATE:

1) NOW THAT A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND HAS SET UP
IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION MAINLY NEAR THE I-80 AND HIGHWAY 6
CORRIDORS...HAVE GREATLY INCREASED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH MID-DAY IN THIS AREA. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY SINK SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN
INCREASING POPS FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE. FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY AROUND 2-3 PM AT THE LATEST.
AMOUNT-WISE...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF HARDLY ANYBODY SEES MORE THAN
5-10 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.

2) WITH PLENTIFUL MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
(ALTHOUGH STARTING TO THIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
NORTH)...NOT TO MENTION STEADY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GO MUCH OF
ANYWHERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY SEE THEIR
HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...AM STILL
EXPECTING MOST OF THE CWA TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY TOP OUT IN THE 45-50
RANGE WITH ANY MID-50S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHERN KS ZONES...BUT
SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 45...ESPECIALLY COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AUTOMATED SENSORS AND WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

EAR IS CURRENTLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GRI WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
THANKS TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE AREA...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING. THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTH THIS MORNING. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS...WITH SPEEDS
PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. OTHER
CONCERN IS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER TERMINAL HAVING A NOTABLE IMPACT IS LOW...SO
KEPT MENTION AT VCSH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 251522
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THIS FIRST DAY SHIFT UPDATE:

1) NOW THAT A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND HAS SET UP
IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION MAINLY NEAR THE I-80 AND HIGHWAY 6
CORRIDORS...HAVE GREATLY INCREASED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH MID-DAY IN THIS AREA. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY SINK SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN
INCREASING POPS FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE. FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY AROUND 2-3 PM AT THE LATEST.
AMOUNT-WISE...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF HARDLY ANYBODY SEES MORE THAN
5-10 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.

2) WITH PLENTIFUL MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
(ALTHOUGH STARTING TO THIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
NORTH)...NOT TO MENTION STEADY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GO MUCH OF
ANYWHERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY SEE THEIR
HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...AM STILL
EXPECTING MOST OF THE CWA TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY TOP OUT IN THE 45-50
RANGE WITH ANY MID-50S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHERN KS ZONES...BUT
SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 45...ESPECIALLY COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AUTOMATED SENSORS AND WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

EAR IS CURRENTLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GRI WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
THANKS TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE AREA...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING. THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTH THIS MORNING. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS...WITH SPEEDS
PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. OTHER
CONCERN IS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER TERMINAL HAVING A NOTABLE IMPACT IS LOW...SO
KEPT MENTION AT VCSH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KGID 251522
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THIS FIRST DAY SHIFT UPDATE:

1) NOW THAT A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND HAS SET UP
IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION MAINLY NEAR THE I-80 AND HIGHWAY 6
CORRIDORS...HAVE GREATLY INCREASED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH MID-DAY IN THIS AREA. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY SINK SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN
INCREASING POPS FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE. FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY AROUND 2-3 PM AT THE LATEST.
AMOUNT-WISE...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF HARDLY ANYBODY SEES MORE THAN
5-10 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.

2) WITH PLENTIFUL MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
(ALTHOUGH STARTING TO THIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
NORTH)...NOT TO MENTION STEADY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GO MUCH OF
ANYWHERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY SEE THEIR
HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...AM STILL
EXPECTING MOST OF THE CWA TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY TOP OUT IN THE 45-50
RANGE WITH ANY MID-50S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHERN KS ZONES...BUT
SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 45...ESPECIALLY COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AUTOMATED SENSORS AND WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

EAR IS CURRENTLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GRI WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
THANKS TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE AREA...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING. THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTH THIS MORNING. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS...WITH SPEEDS
PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. OTHER
CONCERN IS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER TERMINAL HAVING A NOTABLE IMPACT IS LOW...SO
KEPT MENTION AT VCSH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 251522
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THIS FIRST DAY SHIFT UPDATE:

1) NOW THAT A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND HAS SET UP
IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION MAINLY NEAR THE I-80 AND HIGHWAY 6
CORRIDORS...HAVE GREATLY INCREASED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH MID-DAY IN THIS AREA. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY SINK SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN
INCREASING POPS FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE. FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY AROUND 2-3 PM AT THE LATEST.
AMOUNT-WISE...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF HARDLY ANYBODY SEES MORE THAN
5-10 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.

2) WITH PLENTIFUL MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
(ALTHOUGH STARTING TO THIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
NORTH)...NOT TO MENTION STEADY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GO MUCH OF
ANYWHERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY SEE THEIR
HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...AM STILL
EXPECTING MOST OF THE CWA TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY TOP OUT IN THE 45-50
RANGE WITH ANY MID-50S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHERN KS ZONES...BUT
SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 45...ESPECIALLY COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AUTOMATED SENSORS AND WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

EAR IS CURRENTLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GRI WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
THANKS TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE AREA...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING. THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTH THIS MORNING. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS...WITH SPEEDS
PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. OTHER
CONCERN IS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER TERMINAL HAVING A NOTABLE IMPACT IS LOW...SO
KEPT MENTION AT VCSH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KGID 251200
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AUTOMATED SENSORS AND WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

EAR IS CURRENTLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GRI WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
THANKS TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE AREA...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING. THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTH THIS MORNING. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS...WITH SPEEDS
PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. OTHER
CONCERN IS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER TERMINAL HAVING A NOTABLE IMPACT IS LOW...SO
KEPT MENTION AT VCSH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KGID 251200
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AUTOMATED SENSORS AND WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

EAR IS CURRENTLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GRI WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
THANKS TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE AREA...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING. THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTH THIS MORNING. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS...WITH SPEEDS
PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. OTHER
CONCERN IS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER TERMINAL HAVING A NOTABLE IMPACT IS LOW...SO
KEPT MENTION AT VCSH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KGID 251200
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AUTOMATED SENSORS AND WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

EAR IS CURRENTLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GRI WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
THANKS TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE AREA...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING. THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTH THIS MORNING. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS...WITH SPEEDS
PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. OTHER
CONCERN IS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER TERMINAL HAVING A NOTABLE IMPACT IS LOW...SO
KEPT MENTION AT VCSH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KGID 251200
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AUTOMATED SENSORS AND WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

EAR IS CURRENTLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GRI WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
THANKS TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE AREA...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING. THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTH THIS MORNING. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS...WITH SPEEDS
PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. OTHER
CONCERN IS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER TERMINAL HAVING A NOTABLE IMPACT IS LOW...SO
KEPT MENTION AT VCSH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP




000
FXUS63 KLBF 251149
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
649 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GRAND FORKS ND WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NCTRL NEBR. AN AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXTENDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEASTERN CO INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEBR...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN NEBR. STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE ONL AND ODX AREAS INTO ERN NEBR
AND NERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FA AT 12Z. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY 14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTN HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WY WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO SRN NEBR AND KS TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE POPS ARE IN
AGREEMENT BY LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS. SO FAR THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NCTRL BY MIDDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SW
NEBR BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 40S NCTRL AND 50 TO 55
SOUTHWEST...WHICH COME IN NEAR LATEST AVBL RAP13 AND HRRR 2M TEMPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS. LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 20S AS SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT QPF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINING DRY. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE SPENT
TRYING TO SATURATE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY. H85
TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-14C OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MID-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A WARM SATURDAY. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INTO THE LOW 80S AND THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE 70S. MAX T GRID WAS
NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...AND MAY NEED
FURTHER WARMING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SEND A FRONT
THROUGH NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS FILLS
IN BEHIND IT. EXPECTING SUNDAY HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OVC018 AT KVTN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 16Z.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS NEAR 33016G25KT CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM 14Z UNTIL 01Z/26TH...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS TONIGHT.
AT KLBF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT -SHRA COULD PASS THE TERMINAL PRIOR TO 18Z. OTHERWISE WINDS
36014G24KT CAN BE EXPECTED 14Z UNTIL 01Z/26TH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOWS AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER WITH DRY
FUELS AND NW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY
HIGH TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE MET BY THIS WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RH 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 204 AND 210 ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST. THE
PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT NEAR 10 KTS. ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
10 TO 20 MPH WITH MIN RH 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN
ELEVATED ON MONDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 AND MIN RH AS LOW AS
20 PERCENT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 251149
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
649 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GRAND FORKS ND WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NCTRL NEBR. AN AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXTENDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEASTERN CO INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEBR...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN NEBR. STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE ONL AND ODX AREAS INTO ERN NEBR
AND NERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FA AT 12Z. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY 14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTN HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WY WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO SRN NEBR AND KS TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE POPS ARE IN
AGREEMENT BY LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS. SO FAR THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NCTRL BY MIDDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SW
NEBR BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 40S NCTRL AND 50 TO 55
SOUTHWEST...WHICH COME IN NEAR LATEST AVBL RAP13 AND HRRR 2M TEMPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS. LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 20S AS SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT QPF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINING DRY. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE SPENT
TRYING TO SATURATE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY. H85
TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-14C OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MID-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A WARM SATURDAY. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INTO THE LOW 80S AND THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE 70S. MAX T GRID WAS
NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...AND MAY NEED
FURTHER WARMING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SEND A FRONT
THROUGH NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS FILLS
IN BEHIND IT. EXPECTING SUNDAY HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OVC018 AT KVTN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 16Z.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS NEAR 33016G25KT CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM 14Z UNTIL 01Z/26TH...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS TONIGHT.
AT KLBF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT -SHRA COULD PASS THE TERMINAL PRIOR TO 18Z. OTHERWISE WINDS
36014G24KT CAN BE EXPECTED 14Z UNTIL 01Z/26TH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOWS AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER WITH DRY
FUELS AND NW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY
HIGH TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE MET BY THIS WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RH 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 204 AND 210 ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST. THE
PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT NEAR 10 KTS. ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
10 TO 20 MPH WITH MIN RH 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN
ELEVATED ON MONDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 AND MIN RH AS LOW AS
20 PERCENT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 251149
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
649 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GRAND FORKS ND WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NCTRL NEBR. AN AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXTENDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEASTERN CO INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEBR...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN NEBR. STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE ONL AND ODX AREAS INTO ERN NEBR
AND NERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FA AT 12Z. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY 14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTN HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WY WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO SRN NEBR AND KS TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE POPS ARE IN
AGREEMENT BY LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS. SO FAR THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NCTRL BY MIDDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SW
NEBR BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 40S NCTRL AND 50 TO 55
SOUTHWEST...WHICH COME IN NEAR LATEST AVBL RAP13 AND HRRR 2M TEMPS.

TONIGHT...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS. LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 20S AS SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT QPF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINING DRY. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE SPENT
TRYING TO SATURATE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY. H85
TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-14C OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MID-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A WARM SATURDAY. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INTO THE LOW 80S AND THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE 70S. MAX T GRID WAS
NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...AND MAY NEED
FURTHER WARMING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SEND A FRONT
THROUGH NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS FILLS
IN BEHIND IT. EXPECTING SUNDAY HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OVC018 AT KVTN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 16Z.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS NEAR 33016G25KT CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM 14Z UNTIL 01Z/26TH...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS TONIGHT.
AT KLBF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT -SHRA COULD PASS THE TERMINAL PRIOR TO 18Z. OTHERWISE WINDS
36014G24KT CAN BE EXPECTED 14Z UNTIL 01Z/26TH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOWS AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER WITH DRY
FUELS AND NW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY
HIGH TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE MET BY THIS WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RH 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 204 AND 210 ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST. THE
PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT NEAR 10 KTS. ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
10 TO 20 MPH WITH MIN RH 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN
ELEVATED ON MONDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 AND MIN RH AS LOW AS
20 PERCENT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KOAX 251128
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH KOFK AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
THERE. CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH KOMA/KLNK AROUND 13-14Z AND ALLOW
FOR THE VLIFR CONDS TO IMPROVE TO IFR AND THEN VFR BY MID MRNG.
KLNK/KOMA MAY ALSO SEE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER THROUGH MID
MRNG. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL 3 SITES THIS MRNG WITH
GUSTS LIKELY THROUGH MID AFTN. VFR CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FM
THIS AFTN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251128
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH KOFK AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
THERE. CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH KOMA/KLNK AROUND 13-14Z AND ALLOW
FOR THE VLIFR CONDS TO IMPROVE TO IFR AND THEN VFR BY MID MRNG.
KLNK/KOMA MAY ALSO SEE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER THROUGH MID
MRNG. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL 3 SITES THIS MRNG WITH
GUSTS LIKELY THROUGH MID AFTN. VFR CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FM
THIS AFTN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 251128
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH KOFK AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
THERE. CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH KOMA/KLNK AROUND 13-14Z AND ALLOW
FOR THE VLIFR CONDS TO IMPROVE TO IFR AND THEN VFR BY MID MRNG.
KLNK/KOMA MAY ALSO SEE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER THROUGH MID
MRNG. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL 3 SITES THIS MRNG WITH
GUSTS LIKELY THROUGH MID AFTN. VFR CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FM
THIS AFTN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 251128
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH KOFK AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
THERE. CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH KOMA/KLNK AROUND 13-14Z AND ALLOW
FOR THE VLIFR CONDS TO IMPROVE TO IFR AND THEN VFR BY MID MRNG.
KLNK/KOMA MAY ALSO SEE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER THROUGH MID
MRNG. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL 3 SITES THIS MRNG WITH
GUSTS LIKELY THROUGH MID AFTN. VFR CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FM
THIS AFTN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 251128
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH KOFK AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
THERE. CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH KOMA/KLNK AROUND 13-14Z AND ALLOW
FOR THE VLIFR CONDS TO IMPROVE TO IFR AND THEN VFR BY MID MRNG.
KLNK/KOMA MAY ALSO SEE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER THROUGH MID
MRNG. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL 3 SITES THIS MRNG WITH
GUSTS LIKELY THROUGH MID AFTN. VFR CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FM
THIS AFTN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 251128
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH KOFK AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
THERE. CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH KOMA/KLNK AROUND 13-14Z AND ALLOW
FOR THE VLIFR CONDS TO IMPROVE TO IFR AND THEN VFR BY MID MRNG.
KLNK/KOMA MAY ALSO SEE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER THROUGH MID
MRNG. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL 3 SITES THIS MRNG WITH
GUSTS LIKELY THROUGH MID AFTN. VFR CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FM
THIS AFTN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ069-079-
     080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KGID 250859
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT WITH CLOUD COVER
AND FOG. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO AFFECT MOST OF
SC NEB...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LEADING TO
FOG AND VISIBILITIES DOWN IN THE 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE RANGE. HAVE LIFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THAT WILL ACTUALLY LAST IS LOWER AT
EAR...WHICH SITS ON THE EDGE OF THAT STRATUS. A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE...WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SPEEDS START TO DIMINISH. ALONG WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INSERT MORE THAN A VCSH MENTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-074>077-085>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KGID 250859
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN COMES RIGHT OFF THE BAT WITH CLOUD COVER
AND FOG. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO AFFECT MOST OF
SC NEB...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LEADING TO
FOG AND VISIBILITIES DOWN IN THE 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE RANGE. HAVE LIFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THAT WILL ACTUALLY LAST IS LOWER AT
EAR...WHICH SITS ON THE EDGE OF THAT STRATUS. A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE...WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SPEEDS START TO DIMINISH. ALONG WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INSERT MORE THAN A VCSH MENTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-074>077-085>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP



000
FXUS63 KOAX 250822
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KOFK UNTIL THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT BY 09-10Z. IFR CONDITIONS KLNK/KOMA UNTIL THE CLEARING LINE
MOVES BY 14-15Z. THERE`S ALSO A SMALL CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS COULD
DROP TO LIFR AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS AS OTHER NEARBY LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY BELOW 500 FEET. THE CLEARING WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 13 TO 25 KNOTS
AND LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY...TAPERING OFF BY 23-00Z. COULD
ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AT KLNK 16-22Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ069-079-
     080-090-091.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 250822
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KOFK UNTIL THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT BY 09-10Z. IFR CONDITIONS KLNK/KOMA UNTIL THE CLEARING LINE
MOVES BY 14-15Z. THERE`S ALSO A SMALL CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS COULD
DROP TO LIFR AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS AS OTHER NEARBY LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY BELOW 500 FEET. THE CLEARING WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 13 TO 25 KNOTS
AND LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY...TAPERING OFF BY 23-00Z. COULD
ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AT KLNK 16-22Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ069-079-
     080-090-091.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 250822
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KOFK UNTIL THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT BY 09-10Z. IFR CONDITIONS KLNK/KOMA UNTIL THE CLEARING LINE
MOVES BY 14-15Z. THERE`S ALSO A SMALL CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS COULD
DROP TO LIFR AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS AS OTHER NEARBY LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY BELOW 500 FEET. THE CLEARING WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 13 TO 25 KNOTS
AND LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY...TAPERING OFF BY 23-00Z. COULD
ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AT KLNK 16-22Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ069-079-
     080-090-091.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250822
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KOFK UNTIL THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT BY 09-10Z. IFR CONDITIONS KLNK/KOMA UNTIL THE CLEARING LINE
MOVES BY 14-15Z. THERE`S ALSO A SMALL CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS COULD
DROP TO LIFR AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS AS OTHER NEARBY LOCATIONS ARE
ALREADY BELOW 500 FEET. THE CLEARING WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 13 TO 25 KNOTS
AND LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY...TAPERING OFF BY 23-00Z. COULD
ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AT KLNK 16-22Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ069-079-
     080-090-091.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




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