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000
FXUS63 KLBF 310845
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM IN PUSHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME ONGOING SHOWERS VIRGA
OVER NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND NAM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTION. FRONT JUST INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA ONLY 1MB WITH 4MB CHANGE OVER MONTANA. FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ALONG A LINE FROM
OGALLALA TO AINSWORTH. COOLER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES TODAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. GOOD INSOLATION AND
FAIRLY STRONG WAA OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN AROUND 90. FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT WILL
GIVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE RETAINED MOSTLY SCHC POPS ALONG THE STALLED
OUT FRONT THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THUS LOWER
POPS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA MIDWEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK
ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. A GENERAL SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. .

CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SLIM UNTIL LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN BETTER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/
DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT AND
HAS IT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT DELAYING THE PASSAGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING . THE
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE ECMWF HOLDING BACK THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...BUT LEANS CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A RATHER
DIFFICULT FORECAST AT THIS POINT FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. FEEL THE
BEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND HIGHS DOWN FROM NEAR 90 FRIDAY TO
80S SATURDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN COLO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SWRN NEB AROUND 21Z MONDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SWRN NEB AND THE SANDHILLS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC



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000
FXUS63 KGID 310833
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
333 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE RATHER QUIET
WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CONCERNS WILL BE A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THE LAST
FEW MORNINGS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR
WESTERN MOST ZONES.

MORNING FOG POTENTIAL...THE SFC WINDS ARE JUST A LITTLE STRONGER
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND JUST OFF THE SFC IS ALSO
A LITTLE STRONGER ALLOWING FOR MORE MIXING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE WIND IS STILL SOUTHERLY TO EVEN A BIT
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH VERY LOW SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. YET
WITH MORE MIXING THIS MORNING...BELIEVE THAT MOST PLACES SHOULD
SEE VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1 MILE AND HENCE ANOTHER DENSE FOG HEADLINE
DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE 00Z NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS ALL KEEP
ANY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM AND A
FEW WRF MODELS BRING INTO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES WHAT WOULD AMOUNT
TO JUST A COUPLE REMNANT SPRINKLES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN
TUESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
OVERALL SUPPORT BY MOST MODELS LEADS TO ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CALL
FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE
TRI-CITIES SOUTH AND EAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO WARM WITH
OUR TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG AND
STRATUS SOMETIMES LINGERING A BIT LONGER THAN IT SHOULD. WE HAVE
ALSO HAD FAIRLY THICK SMOKE AT TIMES FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES
THAT HAVE DIMMED THE INTENSITY OF THE AFTERNOON SUN. WOULD
CERTAINLY NOT WANT TO GO ABOVE FORECAST GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES
RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE RECENT TRACK RECORD AND WILL TEND TO GO RIGHT
NEAR GUIDANCE TO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

ALOFT: SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS WEEK WITH A
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE W COAST AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TX/NM INTO
ERN CANADA. CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF
EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN USA TROF LATE IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY
INCREASING THE THREAT OF SCT TSTMS. BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW
THIS FAR OUT AS FCST VORT MAXIMA ARE GENERATED BY MODELED CONVECTION
AND ARE PROBABLY SPURIOUS.

FCST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT SUN. INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE NRN PAC COULD FORCE THE W COAST TROF INTO
THE WRN USA. HOWEVER...THE 18Z/00Z GFS AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN
APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DEAMPLIFY THE FLOW. THE 12Z/00Z EC AND GEM
REMAIN MUCH MORE POTENT WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WRN USA. PREFER
THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION AS THE REMNANTS OF HRCN IGNACIO WILL BE
RECURVING BTWN HI AND AK. THIS ARGUES FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED E PAC
RIDGE.

SURFACE: WITH NO PROGRESSION IN THE FLOW ALOFT...THE FCST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR ALL WEEK...WITH HIGH PRES PARKED OVER THE
ERN USA AND THE POLAR FRONT QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE WRN USA INTO
CNTRL CANADA. THIS FRONT COULD APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW
SUN OR MON 9/7. THE MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AGAIN...NOT MUCH TO ADD FOR DAILY DETAILS. WE CONT IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE MINIMAL. MODEL QPFS CONT TO BE
SPOTTY AND LIGHT DUE TO MODELS STRUGGLING WITH WEAK FORCING. DON`T
BET ON ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY S-SE
WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH EACH DAY. THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY INDICATED
IN THE FCST BEYOND WED. SO FCST WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE INCREASING IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING. FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY THIS MORNING AS IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS AND
EVEN IF WE DO SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING
AT VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 5 MILES RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. FOG CHANCES
DECREASE AS YOU HEAD WEST AND THUS HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE KEAR
TAF FOR NOW. THE WIND WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND BACK A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS PRETTY MUCH A CERTAINTY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 310833
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
333 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE RATHER QUIET
WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CONCERNS WILL BE A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THE LAST
FEW MORNINGS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR
WESTERN MOST ZONES.

MORNING FOG POTENTIAL...THE SFC WINDS ARE JUST A LITTLE STRONGER
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND JUST OFF THE SFC IS ALSO
A LITTLE STRONGER ALLOWING FOR MORE MIXING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE WIND IS STILL SOUTHERLY TO EVEN A BIT
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH VERY LOW SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. YET
WITH MORE MIXING THIS MORNING...BELIEVE THAT MOST PLACES SHOULD
SEE VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1 MILE AND HENCE ANOTHER DENSE FOG HEADLINE
DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THE 00Z NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS ALL KEEP
ANY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM AND A
FEW WRF MODELS BRING INTO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES WHAT WOULD AMOUNT
TO JUST A COUPLE REMNANT SPRINKLES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN
TUESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
OVERALL SUPPORT BY MOST MODELS LEADS TO ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CALL
FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE
TRI-CITIES SOUTH AND EAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO WARM WITH
OUR TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG AND
STRATUS SOMETIMES LINGERING A BIT LONGER THAN IT SHOULD. WE HAVE
ALSO HAD FAIRLY THICK SMOKE AT TIMES FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES
THAT HAVE DIMMED THE INTENSITY OF THE AFTERNOON SUN. WOULD
CERTAINLY NOT WANT TO GO ABOVE FORECAST GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES
RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE RECENT TRACK RECORD AND WILL TEND TO GO RIGHT
NEAR GUIDANCE TO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

ALOFT: SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS WEEK WITH A
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE W COAST AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TX/NM INTO
ERN CANADA. CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROF
EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN USA TROF LATE IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY
INCREASING THE THREAT OF SCT TSTMS. BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW
THIS FAR OUT AS FCST VORT MAXIMA ARE GENERATED BY MODELED CONVECTION
AND ARE PROBABLY SPURIOUS.

FCST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT SUN. INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE NRN PAC COULD FORCE THE W COAST TROF INTO
THE WRN USA. HOWEVER...THE 18Z/00Z GFS AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN
APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DEAMPLIFY THE FLOW. THE 12Z/00Z EC AND GEM
REMAIN MUCH MORE POTENT WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WRN USA. PREFER
THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION AS THE REMNANTS OF HRCN IGNACIO WILL BE
RECURVING BTWN HI AND AK. THIS ARGUES FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED E PAC
RIDGE.

SURFACE: WITH NO PROGRESSION IN THE FLOW ALOFT...THE FCST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR ALL WEEK...WITH HIGH PRES PARKED OVER THE
ERN USA AND THE POLAR FRONT QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE WRN USA INTO
CNTRL CANADA. THIS FRONT COULD APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE NW
SUN OR MON 9/7. THE MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW WOULD SUPPORT A SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AGAIN...NOT MUCH TO ADD FOR DAILY DETAILS. WE CONT IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE MINIMAL. MODEL QPFS CONT TO BE
SPOTTY AND LIGHT DUE TO MODELS STRUGGLING WITH WEAK FORCING. DON`T
BET ON ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY S-SE
WINDS WILL GUST 20-30 MPH EACH DAY. THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY INDICATED
IN THE FCST BEYOND WED. SO FCST WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE INCREASING IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING. FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY THIS MORNING AS IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS AND
EVEN IF WE DO SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING
AT VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 5 MILES RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. FOG CHANCES
DECREASE AS YOU HEAD WEST AND THUS HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE KEAR
TAF FOR NOW. THE WIND WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND BACK A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS PRETTY MUCH A CERTAINTY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY


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000
FXUS63 KOAX 310751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY MORE LIMITED AT 07Z THAN
WAS THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE
EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF APPROCHING
COLD FRONT.

NOT A LOT OF PUSH WITH THIS FRONT WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN WASH IT OUT ON TUESDAY. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. SOME LINGERING SMALL
CHANCE INTO EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
PLACE. SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK LESS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. IMPACT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT TREND IS TOWARD
SOME LOWER 90S IN SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE PERIOD
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS ANOTHER SURFACE
FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE REGION AWAITING THE KICK FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT
THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY
01/00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 310751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY MORE LIMITED AT 07Z THAN
WAS THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE
EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF APPROCHING
COLD FRONT.

NOT A LOT OF PUSH WITH THIS FRONT WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN WASH IT OUT ON TUESDAY. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. SOME LINGERING SMALL
CHANCE INTO EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
PLACE. SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK LESS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. IMPACT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT TREND IS TOWARD
SOME LOWER 90S IN SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE PERIOD
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS ANOTHER SURFACE
FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE REGION AWAITING THE KICK FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT
THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY
01/00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 310751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY MORE LIMITED AT 07Z THAN
WAS THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE
EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF APPROCHING
COLD FRONT.

NOT A LOT OF PUSH WITH THIS FRONT WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN WASH IT OUT ON TUESDAY. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. SOME LINGERING SMALL
CHANCE INTO EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
PLACE. SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK LESS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. IMPACT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT TREND IS TOWARD
SOME LOWER 90S IN SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE PERIOD
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS ANOTHER SURFACE
FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE REGION AWAITING THE KICK FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT
THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY
01/00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 310751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG
AGAIN THIS MORNING. LOWER CIGS AND VSBY MORE LIMITED AT 07Z THAN
WAS THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY PART OF THE MORNING OTHERWISE
EXPECT EARLIER DISSIPATION BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF APPROCHING
COLD FRONT.

NOT A LOT OF PUSH WITH THIS FRONT WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN WASH IT OUT ON TUESDAY. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. SOME LINGERING SMALL
CHANCE INTO EARLY PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
PLACE. SIMILAR SETUP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MAINLY FOR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK LESS LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. IMPACT OF ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT TREND IS TOWARD
SOME LOWER 90S IN SOME SPOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW DURING THE PERIOD
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS ANOTHER SURFACE
FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE REGION AWAITING THE KICK FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT
THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY
01/00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 310546
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING. FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY THIS MORNING AS IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS AND
EVEN IF WE DO SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING
AT VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 5 MILES RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. FOG CHANCES
DECREASE AS YOU HEAD WEST AND THUS HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE KEAR
TAF FOR NOW. THE WIND WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND BACK A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS PRETTY MUCH A CERTAINTY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 310546
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING. FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY THIS MORNING AS IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS AND
EVEN IF WE DO SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING
AT VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 5 MILES RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. FOG CHANCES
DECREASE AS YOU HEAD WEST AND THUS HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE KEAR
TAF FOR NOW. THE WIND WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND BACK A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS PRETTY MUCH A CERTAINTY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 310546
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING. FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY THIS MORNING AS IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS AND
EVEN IF WE DO SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING
AT VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 5 MILES RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. FOG CHANCES
DECREASE AS YOU HEAD WEST AND THUS HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE KEAR
TAF FOR NOW. THE WIND WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND BACK A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS PRETTY MUCH A CERTAINTY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 310546
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING. FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY THIS MORNING AS IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS AND
EVEN IF WE DO SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING
AT VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 5 MILES RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. FOG CHANCES
DECREASE AS YOU HEAD WEST AND THUS HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE KEAR
TAF FOR NOW. THE WIND WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND BACK A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS PRETTY MUCH A CERTAINTY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 310546
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING. FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY THIS MORNING AS IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS AND
EVEN IF WE DO SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING
AT VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 5 MILES RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. FOG CHANCES
DECREASE AS YOU HEAD WEST AND THUS HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE KEAR
TAF FOR NOW. THE WIND WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND BACK A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS PRETTY MUCH A CERTAINTY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 310546
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AGAIN THIS MORNING. FOG
DOES NOT APPEAR AS LIKELY THIS MORNING AS IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS AND
EVEN IF WE DO SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING
AT VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 5 MILES RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. FOG CHANCES
DECREASE AS YOU HEAD WEST AND THUS HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE KEAR
TAF FOR NOW. THE WIND WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND BACK A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS PRETTY MUCH A CERTAINTY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 310438
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT
THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY
01/00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 310438
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT
THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY
01/00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 310438
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG 08-14Z AT
THE THREE SITES...AND ESPECIALLY AT KOMA WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS BY 14-16Z...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY
01/00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KLBF 310425 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN COLO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SWRN NEB AROUND 21Z MONDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SWRN NEB AND THE SANDHILLS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KLBF 310425 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN COLO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SWRN NEB AROUND 21Z MONDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SWRN NEB AND THE SANDHILLS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KLBF 310425 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN COLO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SWRN NEB AROUND 21Z MONDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SWRN NEB AND THE SANDHILLS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KLBF 310425 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN COLO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SWRN NEB AROUND 21Z MONDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SWRN NEB AND THE SANDHILLS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KGID 302331
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
631 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THE PAST FEW EVENINGS
AND THE 22Z HRRR REDEVELOPING DENSE FOG ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA...OPTED TO INTRODUCE IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
KGRI...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST TOWARDS KEAR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TO BURN OFF RAPIDLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 302331
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
631 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THE PAST FEW EVENINGS
AND THE 22Z HRRR REDEVELOPING DENSE FOG ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA...OPTED TO INTRODUCE IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
KGRI...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST TOWARDS KEAR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TO BURN OFF RAPIDLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 302331
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
631 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THE PAST FEW EVENINGS
AND THE 22Z HRRR REDEVELOPING DENSE FOG ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA...OPTED TO INTRODUCE IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
KGRI...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST TOWARDS KEAR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TO BURN OFF RAPIDLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KLBF 302328 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
ARIZONA TO WYOMING SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.

ASOS HAS IDENTIFIED A THIN SMOKE LAYER ACROSS WRN NEB FROM KVTN
TO KIML. THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY PERHAPS PRODUCING MVFR CIGS IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC



000
FXUS63 KLBF 302328 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
ARIZONA TO WYOMING SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.

ASOS HAS IDENTIFIED A THIN SMOKE LAYER ACROSS WRN NEB FROM KVTN
TO KIML. THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY PERHAPS PRODUCING MVFR CIGS IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KLBF 302328 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
ARIZONA TO WYOMING SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.

ASOS HAS IDENTIFIED A THIN SMOKE LAYER ACROSS WRN NEB FROM KVTN
TO KIML. THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY PERHAPS PRODUCING MVFR CIGS IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MVFR FOG COULD REDEVELOP AT
ALL SITES 10-14Z. COULD BE TEMPORARILY IFR AT KOMA DURING THIS
TIME. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 12 TO 20 KNOTS AT
KOFK BY 16Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 302311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MVFR FOG COULD REDEVELOP AT
ALL SITES 10-14Z. COULD BE TEMPORARILY IFR AT KOMA DURING THIS
TIME. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 12 TO 20 KNOTS AT
KOFK BY 16Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 302311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MVFR FOG COULD REDEVELOP AT
ALL SITES 10-14Z. COULD BE TEMPORARILY IFR AT KOMA DURING THIS
TIME. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 12 TO 20 KNOTS AT
KOFK BY 16Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 302311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MVFR FOG COULD REDEVELOP AT
ALL SITES 10-14Z. COULD BE TEMPORARILY IFR AT KOMA DURING THIS
TIME. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 12 TO 20 KNOTS AT
KOFK BY 16Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 302311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MVFR FOG COULD REDEVELOP AT
ALL SITES 10-14Z. COULD BE TEMPORARILY IFR AT KOMA DURING THIS
TIME. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 12 TO 20 KNOTS AT
KOFK BY 16Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KGID 302105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES...AM AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS HIGH...BASED IN PART ON
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THEORY HELPING TO KEEP
"SIGNIFICANT" FOG FROM FORMING. ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY AN MVFR VISIBILITY CATEGORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE A
SUB-VFR CEILING AT THIS TIME. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS. AS FOR SURFACE
BREEZES...THEY CARRY HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 12+ KT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 302105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES...AM AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS HIGH...BASED IN PART ON
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THEORY HELPING TO KEEP
"SIGNIFICANT" FOG FROM FORMING. ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY AN MVFR VISIBILITY CATEGORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE A
SUB-VFR CEILING AT THIS TIME. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS. AS FOR SURFACE
BREEZES...THEY CARRY HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 12+ KT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 302105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES...AM AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS HIGH...BASED IN PART ON
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THEORY HELPING TO KEEP
"SIGNIFICANT" FOG FROM FORMING. ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY AN MVFR VISIBILITY CATEGORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE A
SUB-VFR CEILING AT THIS TIME. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS. AS FOR SURFACE
BREEZES...THEY CARRY HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 12+ KT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 302105
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IN SOME WAYS...THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
STRONGLY RESEMBLES THE ONE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT HOPEFULLY
THIS TIME AROUND WITH FEWER DENSE FOG ISSUES (MORE ON THAT BELOW).
FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN
TEMPERATURES...AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUED
"ZERO" CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON (7PM)...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BE
A SOMEWHAT CLOSE CALL IN EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST COUNTIES
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TURNING TO BRIEF LOOK AT RECENT/CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE DAY
STARTED OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY WORSE-THAN-EXPECTED
(VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO) ROUND OF FOG/DENSE FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WHICH IF ANYTHING ELSE ENDED UP DEVELOPING FARTHER
WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. ONCE THE MORNING FOG BURNED OFF...IT TOOK
A FEW MORE HOURS TO FINALLY SHAKE A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS DECK FROM
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FINALLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAS BROKEN OUT INTO
WIDESPREAD FILTERED/MILKY/HAZY SUNSHINE...AGAIN A DIRECT RESULT OF
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY
DEPICT THE DOMINANT FEATURE KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL-
EAST TO NEAR THE MS RIVER. AS WAS EXPECTED...THE CLOCKWISE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...HAS RESULTED IN AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
TO MODESTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SPEEDS A FEW TICKS EITHER SIDE OF 15
MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20+ MPH. TEMP-WISE...THANKS IN PART TO
THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE MILKY
HAZE ABOVE LIKELY KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX WARMING POTENTIAL
IN SOME SPOTS...WE ARE AGAIN ENDING UP WITH A SEASONABLY-LARGE
SPREAD IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...IT
APPEARS FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL FAIL TO REACH 80...WHILE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES HAVE ATTAINED THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IF NOT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST "SOME" DEGREE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WOULD BE A PRETTY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY/QUIET
FORECAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE HEART OF
THE LOCAL AREA...AS SOME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES
START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE. AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT...BREEZES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH (LIKELY
CLOSER TO 5 MPH A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). ALTHOUGH
SKIES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER ONLY THE THIN SMOKY
HAZE...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS/MIXING
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT OF TRULY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
HANGING ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT...THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO
POSSIBILITIES. FOR ONE...A STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP BACK
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND AT LEAST BRUSH INTO FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FOG POSSIBLY FAVORING ITS
WESTERN EDGES IN OUR SOUTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES. SECONDLY...IT`S
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS PRESENT
TO AT LEAST INDUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BASED ON WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE GENERIC/BASELINE "PATCHY FOG" WORDING TO THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT AS HIGH AS LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT BE INSERTING
ANY FOG CONCERNS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT
(HWOGID) AT THIS TIME. IN SUMMARY...JUST CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE
OUT IMPACTFUL FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT...BUT AM LARGELY DOUBTING A
FULL REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT AS WELL. TEMP-WISE...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO LOWS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY DAYTIME: SEE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH FOR POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE DAY AS A
WHOLE SHOULD LARGELY RESEMBLE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE WE CAN FINALLY
GET EASTERN COUNTIES TO WARM INTO THE EXPECTED MID-80S RANGE FOR A
CHANGE (ASSUMING OF COURSE THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS DOES
NOT INTERFERE). IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE DOMINANT RIDGE AXIS
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT/GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPINGE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF NEBRASKA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INTO
EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
18Z NAM FOR EXAMPLE) SUGGEST THAT SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD FLARE UP ALONG/VERY NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS. BUT EVEN IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 25-50 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z/7PM...AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY
OF NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AGAIN
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A SIMILAR LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD IN PLACE TO THAT OF TODAY...WILL AIM FOR
VERY SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AIM
ANYWHERE FROM 5-9 DEGREES WARMER IN CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
NET RESULT IS A RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST...UPPER 80S CENTRAL...AND
AT LEAST LOW 90S FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH MID 90S MOST FAVORED IN
COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
EVENING...SHOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TRYING TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAIN
WEAK. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE NM/MEX
BORDER AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
AFFECTING THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOWING THAT A TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...PERHAPS
CLIPPING W/NWRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A PRETTY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE SW...BRINGING THAT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO BE.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST...AND
SHEAR IS LOW...SO IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

KEPT THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY DRY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKING
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...AS MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE HELP FROM A
STRONGER LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...AND SHEAR IS AGAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK /WED-FRI/ AND INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOWING THAT
THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE CHANGES OVERALL DURING THE WED/THU
TIME FRAME...WITH THE MORE BROAD SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. KEPT THESE 2 DAYS
DRY...BUT SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...VARYING WITH WHERE THE QPF FIELDS DEVELOP. BY THE TIME FRI-
SUN ROLLS AROUND...MODELS SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW...WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVING A STRONGER SYSTEM
IN PLACE TO THE WEST LOOKS TO SEND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY...THUS THE 20-30 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. HOWEVER...LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...AS IT WONT BE 2.5 DAYS
STRAIGHT OF RAIN...JUST DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO PINPOINT THE
DETAILS WITH LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE WAVES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...NOT
LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT SWINGS...WITH 80S/90S IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND AFFECTS FOR TEMPS SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES...AM AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS HIGH...BASED IN PART ON
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THEORY HELPING TO KEEP
"SIGNIFICANT" FOG FROM FORMING. ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY AN MVFR VISIBILITY CATEGORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE A
SUB-VFR CEILING AT THIS TIME. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS. AS FOR SURFACE
BREEZES...THEY CARRY HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 12+ KT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KLBF 302051
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 302051
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 302051
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 302051
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 302022
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG



000
FXUS63 KOAX 302022
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG



000
FXUS63 KOAX 302022
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG



000
FXUS63 KOAX 302022
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

POTENTIAL FOR ONE MORE MORNING OF FOG...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WE SAW AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION. FOG HAD LIFTED BUT
CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SCOUR THOSE OUT A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN
SATURDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE FOG LESS OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY
WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SUGGEST MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL AGAIN
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW/TROUGH IN ALASKA/BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS TO PUMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION...MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COUPLE OF RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS SHORTWAVES EJECT THROUGH OUR AREA.

THE FIRST WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL STILL INDUCE AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NO STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS OR THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THERE MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THIS IS NOT A STRONG IMPULSE BY ANY MEANS...BUT LOW
LEVEL JET AND THUS THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGER. AND AGAIN THERE IS
NO REAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER
WE WILL SEE DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SPREADING FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL OUTPUT CONVERTS THIS INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS AM INCLINED TO RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS...THOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE A GENERAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE WARMS DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER AFTERNOON MIXING REGIME. HAVE HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOWER 90S. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HOLD...SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S IF
NOT LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A SLOW PROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR
IN SHOWING THIS...WITH A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO
BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME. WE WILL START OUT THE LONGER TERM WITH
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO A SASKATCHEWAN TO NEVADA LINE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BROAD RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST WILL INITIALLY AMPLIFY FROM OUR AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BEFORE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

GFS DIFFERS FROM ECMWF THIS WEEKEND IN THAT IT SHOWS A MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS IT IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MOISTURE PROFILES WILL PAN OUT...BUT WITH A
MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING DECIDEDLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 BEFORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG



000
FXUS63 KGID 301839
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
139 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE OVERALL-WORSE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND REACHED
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THIS FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WE ARE LEFT
WITH A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SITUATION TO EXACTLY 24 HOURS AGO...AS
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE INFLUENCED HAZY SUNSHINE IS WIDESPREAD OVER
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY ERODING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITHIN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER IN EASTERN ZONES AND HOLDING DOWN/DELAYING HEATING
SOMEWHAT...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE LEAVING WESTERN AREAS UNCHANGED. THE NET
RESULT IS HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW-80S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 81...GENERALLY MID-80S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.

GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING
ESSENTIALLY A "ZERO RISK" OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERED ON WHETHER OR NOT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS PLAGUES PARTS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...SIGNALS ARE MIXED AND HAVE NOT YET
INTRODUCED A FORMAL MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY MORE
ON THIS WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...STAY TUNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES...AM AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS HIGH...BASED IN PART ON
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THEORY HELPING TO KEEP
"SIGNIFICANT" FOG FROM FORMING. ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY AN MVFR VISIBILITY CATEGORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE A
SUB-VFR CEILING AT THIS TIME. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS. AS FOR SURFACE
BREEZES...THEY CARRY HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 12+ KT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 301839
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
139 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE OVERALL-WORSE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND REACHED
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THIS FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WE ARE LEFT
WITH A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SITUATION TO EXACTLY 24 HOURS AGO...AS
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE INFLUENCED HAZY SUNSHINE IS WIDESPREAD OVER
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY ERODING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITHIN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER IN EASTERN ZONES AND HOLDING DOWN/DELAYING HEATING
SOMEWHAT...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE LEAVING WESTERN AREAS UNCHANGED. THE NET
RESULT IS HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW-80S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 81...GENERALLY MID-80S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.

GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING
ESSENTIALLY A "ZERO RISK" OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERED ON WHETHER OR NOT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS PLAGUES PARTS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...SIGNALS ARE MIXED AND HAVE NOT YET
INTRODUCED A FORMAL MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY MORE
ON THIS WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...STAY TUNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES...AM AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS HIGH...BASED IN PART ON
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THEORY HELPING TO KEEP
"SIGNIFICANT" FOG FROM FORMING. ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY AN MVFR VISIBILITY CATEGORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE A
SUB-VFR CEILING AT THIS TIME. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS. AS FOR SURFACE
BREEZES...THEY CARRY HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 12+ KT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 301839
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
139 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE OVERALL-WORSE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND REACHED
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THIS FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WE ARE LEFT
WITH A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SITUATION TO EXACTLY 24 HOURS AGO...AS
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE INFLUENCED HAZY SUNSHINE IS WIDESPREAD OVER
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY ERODING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITHIN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER IN EASTERN ZONES AND HOLDING DOWN/DELAYING HEATING
SOMEWHAT...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE LEAVING WESTERN AREAS UNCHANGED. THE NET
RESULT IS HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW-80S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 81...GENERALLY MID-80S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.

GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING
ESSENTIALLY A "ZERO RISK" OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERED ON WHETHER OR NOT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS PLAGUES PARTS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...SIGNALS ARE MIXED AND HAVE NOT YET
INTRODUCED A FORMAL MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY MORE
ON THIS WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...STAY TUNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FEATURE
VFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH FOG/LOW STRATUS ISSUES...AM AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS NOT AS HIGH...BASED IN PART ON
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES IN THEORY HELPING TO KEEP
"SIGNIFICANT" FOG FROM FORMING. ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY AN MVFR VISIBILITY CATEGORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NOT ADVERTISE A
SUB-VFR CEILING AT THIS TIME. BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS CERTAINLY
BEAR WATCHING THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR A POSSIBLE
TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC EXPECTATIONS. AS FOR SURFACE
BREEZES...THEY CARRY HIGHER CONFIDENCE...AS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...WITH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 12+ KT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES IN PLACE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 301736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 301736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 301736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 301736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 301736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 301736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 301730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG



000
FXUS63 KOAX 301730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301730
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AT KOFK WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AT KOMA AND KLNK BY
AROUND 22Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE
AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS MORE FOG DEVELOPS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KGID 301634
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE OVERALL-WORSE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND REACHED
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THIS FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WE ARE LEFT
WITH A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SITUATION TO EXACTLY 24 HOURS AGO...AS
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE INFLUENCED HAZY SUNSHINE IS WIDESPREAD OVER
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY ERODING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITHIN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER IN EASTERN ZONES AND HOLDING DOWN/DELAYING HEATING
SOMEWHAT...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE LEAVING WESTERN AREAS UNCHANGED. THE NET
RESULT IS HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW-80S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 81...GENERALLY MID-80S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.

GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING
ESSENTIALLY A "ZERO RISK" OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERED ON WHETHER OR NOT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS PLAGUES PARTS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...SIGNALS ARE MIXED AND HAVE NOT YET
INTRODUCED A FORMAL MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY MORE
ON THIS WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...STAY TUNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 301634
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE OVERALL-WORSE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND REACHED
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THIS FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WE ARE LEFT
WITH A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SITUATION TO EXACTLY 24 HOURS AGO...AS
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE INFLUENCED HAZY SUNSHINE IS WIDESPREAD OVER
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY ERODING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITHIN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER IN EASTERN ZONES AND HOLDING DOWN/DELAYING HEATING
SOMEWHAT...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE LEAVING WESTERN AREAS UNCHANGED. THE NET
RESULT IS HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW-80S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 81...GENERALLY MID-80S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.

GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING
ESSENTIALLY A "ZERO RISK" OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERED ON WHETHER OR NOT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS PLAGUES PARTS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...SIGNALS ARE MIXED AND HAVE NOT YET
INTRODUCED A FORMAL MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY MORE
ON THIS WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...STAY TUNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 301634
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE OVERALL-WORSE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND REACHED
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THIS FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WE ARE LEFT
WITH A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SITUATION TO EXACTLY 24 HOURS AGO...AS
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE INFLUENCED HAZY SUNSHINE IS WIDESPREAD OVER
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY ERODING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITHIN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER IN EASTERN ZONES AND HOLDING DOWN/DELAYING HEATING
SOMEWHAT...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE LEAVING WESTERN AREAS UNCHANGED. THE NET
RESULT IS HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW-80S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 81...GENERALLY MID-80S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.

GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING
ESSENTIALLY A "ZERO RISK" OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERED ON WHETHER OR NOT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS PLAGUES PARTS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...SIGNALS ARE MIXED AND HAVE NOT YET
INTRODUCED A FORMAL MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY MORE
ON THIS WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...STAY TUNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 301634
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE OVERALL-WORSE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND REACHED
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THIS FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WE ARE LEFT
WITH A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SITUATION TO EXACTLY 24 HOURS AGO...AS
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE INFLUENCED HAZY SUNSHINE IS WIDESPREAD OVER
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY ERODING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITHIN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER IN EASTERN ZONES AND HOLDING DOWN/DELAYING HEATING
SOMEWHAT...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE LEAVING WESTERN AREAS UNCHANGED. THE NET
RESULT IS HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW-80S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 81...GENERALLY MID-80S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.

GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING
ESSENTIALLY A "ZERO RISK" OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERED ON WHETHER OR NOT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS PLAGUES PARTS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...SIGNALS ARE MIXED AND HAVE NOT YET
INTRODUCED A FORMAL MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY MORE
ON THIS WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...STAY TUNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 301634
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOG/DENSE FOG ISSUES OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE OVERALL-WORSE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...AND REACHED
FARTHER WEST AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THIS FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WE ARE LEFT
WITH A REMARKABLY SIMILAR SITUATION TO EXACTLY 24 HOURS AGO...AS
HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE INFLUENCED HAZY SUNSHINE IS WIDESPREAD OVER
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...WHILE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY ERODING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITHIN EASTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTICEABLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER IN EASTERN ZONES AND HOLDING DOWN/DELAYING HEATING
SOMEWHAT...DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME
EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE LEAVING WESTERN AREAS UNCHANGED. THE NET
RESULT IS HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW-80S IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG
HIGHWAY 81...GENERALLY MID-80S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.

GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING
ESSENTIALLY A "ZERO RISK" OF PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERED ON WHETHER OR NOT YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS PLAGUES PARTS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SO FAR...SIGNALS ARE MIXED AND HAVE NOT YET
INTRODUCED A FORMAL MENTION OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST. PLENTY MORE
ON THIS WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...STAY TUNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 301130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TIMING OF EROSION OF STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY COVERING MOST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS AFTER 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE
EROSION OF THE CLOUD FIELD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 301130 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH VFR
CIGS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TIMING OF EROSION OF STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY COVERING MOST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS AFTER 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE
EROSION OF THE CLOUD FIELD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 301130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TIMING OF EROSION OF STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY COVERING MOST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE IN MOST AREAS AFTER 15Z WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE
EROSION OF THE CLOUD FIELD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 301130 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH VFR
CIGS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 301130 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH VFR
CIGS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 301130 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH VFR
CIGS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER



000
FXUS63 KGID 301050
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
550 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 301050
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
550 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO SLIDE WEST. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST TO INCLUDE ORD...KEARNEY...AND
HOLDREGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-061>064-073>077-083>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 301001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 301001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 301001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 301001
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 09Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 09Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND OUR
MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 5 AM SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST OF KEARNEY.
AT 5 AM KEAR WAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY SLIP INTO KEAR PRIOR TO DAWN. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY PRIOR TO 10 AM. THE
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BUT AT TIMES COULD BE LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KLBF 300858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER



000
FXUS63 KGID 300853
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 300853
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300853
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300853
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300853
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300853
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE VISIBILITY AT A FEW SITES HAS FALLEN TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND
EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH
POORER VISIBILITIES EXPANDING AS WE NEAR DAWN. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY...MINDEN...PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ040-041-
     047>049-062>064-074>077-084>087.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300849
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
349 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW MVFR CLOUDS HAD FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HAD MOVED BACK INTO THE KOMA SITE A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER. THE STRATUS WAS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO REDEVELOPING AT KLNK.
KOFK REMAINS CLEAR. WHERE THE STRATUS REMAINS...ONLY MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES WOULD CLEAR AT KLNK/KOMA...THEN FOG
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AND POSSIBLY REACH IFR AND MAYBE EVEN LIFR
AT TIMES. TEMPORARY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KOFK. WINDS ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KOFK 12-18 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 300849
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
349 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW MVFR CLOUDS HAD FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HAD MOVED BACK INTO THE KOMA SITE A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER. THE STRATUS WAS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO REDEVELOPING AT KLNK.
KOFK REMAINS CLEAR. WHERE THE STRATUS REMAINS...ONLY MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES WOULD CLEAR AT KLNK/KOMA...THEN FOG
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AND POSSIBLY REACH IFR AND MAYBE EVEN LIFR
AT TIMES. TEMPORARY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KOFK. WINDS ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KOFK 12-18 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 300849
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
349 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW MVFR CLOUDS HAD FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HAD MOVED BACK INTO THE KOMA SITE A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER. THE STRATUS WAS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO REDEVELOPING AT KLNK.
KOFK REMAINS CLEAR. WHERE THE STRATUS REMAINS...ONLY MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES WOULD CLEAR AT KLNK/KOMA...THEN FOG
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AND POSSIBLY REACH IFR AND MAYBE EVEN LIFR
AT TIMES. TEMPORARY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KOFK. WINDS ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KOFK 12-18 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 300849
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
349 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LVL LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NW WILL
BROADEN JUST A BIT WHEN IT MOVES INTO WRN CANADA LATER ON MID
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS.

GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PCPN
CHANCES COMING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES REVOLVING AROUND POTENT VORT MAX MIGRATING
ALONG THE U.S./CAN BORDER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSES WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL. AND WITH MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAKENING OF
LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...TOKEN 20S SEEM REASONABLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN DEVELOPMENT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
RELATIVELY STRONG 310K UPGLIDE/LLVL THETA-E ADV. GIVEN NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ON HAND...SEEMS REASONABLE TO JUST
CONTINUE SMALL POPS AT THAT TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LARGE SCALE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL CHANGE LITTLE
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF PREVAILING WEST AND RIDGING EAST WITH ABOVE
NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED. SMALL PCPN CHANCE WED NIGHT MAINLY OVER
THE ERN CWA WHERE POCKET OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT. AS FOR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED WITH PCPN POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE
UPPER PATTERN AND PREFER TO AGAIN GO WITH TOKEN 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW MVFR CLOUDS HAD FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HAD MOVED BACK INTO THE KOMA SITE A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER. THE STRATUS WAS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO REDEVELOPING AT KLNK.
KOFK REMAINS CLEAR. WHERE THE STRATUS REMAINS...ONLY MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES WOULD CLEAR AT KLNK/KOMA...THEN FOG
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AND POSSIBLY REACH IFR AND MAYBE EVEN LIFR
AT TIMES. TEMPORARY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KOFK. WINDS ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KOFK 12-18 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KGID 300807
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
307 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300807
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
307 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 300807
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
307 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND AREAS OF FOG AND
POOR VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE IS MANY LOCATIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS PRESSED OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS BEEN EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS OF 2 AM AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 7 AM OR 8 AM. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AS THE INTENSE LATE SUMMER
SUN RISES HIGHER INTO THE SKY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER VISIBILITY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILD FIRES. THE SMOKE WAS RATHER THICK ON SATURDAY AND
COULD BE HANGING AROUND AGAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL BE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A
SFC LOW SWINGS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE
LARGELY CLOUD FREE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT
SMOKY HAZE FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES COULD LINGER AROUND THE AREA.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S EASTERN ZONES... TO THE MID 80S
IN THE TRI CITIES... TO AROUND 90 OVER OUR NORTHERN KANSAS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL CENTER AROUND IF THE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL FINALLY STAY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL
MOVE BACK IN YET AGAIN. THERE IS REALLY NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SREF
INDICATES A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL BE JUST A LITTLE
STRONGER TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP US
FROM FOGGING IN. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW SPOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX INTO ERN CANADA THRU
SAT. THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN USA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SW FLOW OVER IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. PROGRESSION UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF OF AK SHOULD RESULT IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WRN USA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W OF THE
FCST AREA. SO NO NOTABLE QG FORCING IS ENVISIONED ATTM.

SURFACE: THE PAC COOL FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE WRN
USA WILL EJECT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT. ITS TAIL
END WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NE-SW ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS BY
00Z/TUE. IT THEN DISSIPATES TUE. THE NEXT PAC FRONT WILL ONLY
ADVANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPR-LVL FLOW WHICH MEANS IT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY WELL N AND W OF THE FCST AREA MID-LATE WEEK
AS SVRL LOWS TRACK NE ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING THIS FRONT TO MAKE
IT THRU HERE UNTIL NEXT SUN AT THE EARLIEST. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE FCST. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH TO SAY AS FAR AS DAILY DETAILS. WE ARE IN A VERY DRY
PATTERN AND SEE NO CHANGE IN THAT. OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ARE
MINIMAL AND THAT MEANS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE/HAZARDOUS WX.
MODEL QPFS ARE SPOTTY AND LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY DUE TO WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING...AND THEY ARE PROBABLY
OVERDONE.

HIGH/LOW TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

S WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TUE-SAT AS PRES GRAD INCREASES
BETWEEN THE ERN USA HIGH AND THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 300616
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
116 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 300616
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
116 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 300616
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
116 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 300616
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
116 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL AGAIN CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO KGRI
PRIOR TO DAWN AND COULD ALSO REACH THE KEAR AREA. IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE VISIBILITY HAS ALSO BEEN
COMING DOWN AND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH 9 AM. THE LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY AROUND 9 AM AND EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300508 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...POWER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 300508 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300508 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300331
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1031 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CLOUDS TRIED TO CLEAR...BUT A BAND REMAINS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE HARD
TO GET RID OF OVERNIGHT AND COULD ACTUALLY EVEN EXPAND. OUTSIDE OF
THE STRATUS...STILL EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WHERE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR...THE FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME SPOTS...AT LEAST BASED ON MODEL PREDICTIONS
FROM THE RAP/HRRR/NAM...ALTHOUGH EACH MODEL IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
IN THE AREAL EXTENT. AS IT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...AREAS WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS...THE FOG SHOULDN`T BE THAT BAD OR MAY NOT EVEN
DEVELOP AT ALL.

ALSO...SOME FOLKS MAY HAVE NOTICED THE RED FULL MOON TONIGHT.
THERE REMAINS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SMOKE OVERHEAD FROM WILDFIRES
IN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW MVFR CLOUDS HAD FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HAD MOVED BACK INTO THE KOMA SITE A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER. THE STRATUS WAS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO REDEVELOPING AT KLNK.
KOFK REMAINS CLEAR. WHERE THE STRATUS REMAINS...ONLY MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES WOULD CLEAR AT KLNK/KOMA...THEN FOG
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AND POSSIBLY REACH IFR AND MAYBE EVEN LIFR
AT TIMES. TEMPORARY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KOFK. WINDS ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KOFK 12-18 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300331
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1031 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS CLOUDS TRIED TO CLEAR...BUT A BAND REMAINS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA. THESE CLOUDS MAY BE HARD
TO GET RID OF OVERNIGHT AND COULD ACTUALLY EVEN EXPAND. OUTSIDE OF
THE STRATUS...STILL EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WHERE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR...THE FOG COULD BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME SPOTS...AT LEAST BASED ON MODEL PREDICTIONS
FROM THE RAP/HRRR/NAM...ALTHOUGH EACH MODEL IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
IN THE AREAL EXTENT. AS IT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...AREAS WHERE
STRATUS REMAINS...THE FOG SHOULDN`T BE THAT BAD OR MAY NOT EVEN
DEVELOP AT ALL.

ALSO...SOME FOLKS MAY HAVE NOTICED THE RED FULL MOON TONIGHT.
THERE REMAINS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SMOKE OVERHEAD FROM WILDFIRES
IN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW MVFR CLOUDS HAD FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HAD MOVED BACK INTO THE KOMA SITE A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER. THE STRATUS WAS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO REDEVELOPING AT KLNK.
KOFK REMAINS CLEAR. WHERE THE STRATUS REMAINS...ONLY MVFR FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES WOULD CLEAR AT KLNK/KOMA...THEN FOG
COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AND POSSIBLY REACH IFR AND MAYBE EVEN LIFR
AT TIMES. TEMPORARY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KOFK. WINDS ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KOFK 12-18 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KGID 292357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AND
BECOMING LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT BR TO KEAR AFT ABOUT 30/09Z...WITH 1
SM BR NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR KGRI AFT 30/10Z. ALSO INTRODUCED
SOME BKN IFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT STATUS COULD REDEVELOP OR ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ONCE THE
STRATUS/BR BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO 10KTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 292357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AND
BECOMING LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT BR TO KEAR AFT ABOUT 30/09Z...WITH 1
SM BR NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR KGRI AFT 30/10Z. ALSO INTRODUCED
SOME BKN IFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT STATUS COULD REDEVELOP OR ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ONCE THE
STRATUS/BR BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO 10KTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 292357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AND
BECOMING LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT BR TO KEAR AFT ABOUT 30/09Z...WITH 1
SM BR NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR KGRI AFT 30/10Z. ALSO INTRODUCED
SOME BKN IFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT STATUS COULD REDEVELOP OR ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ONCE THE
STRATUS/BR BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO 10KTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 292357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AND
BECOMING LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT BR TO KEAR AFT ABOUT 30/09Z...WITH 1
SM BR NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR KGRI AFT 30/10Z. ALSO INTRODUCED
SOME BKN IFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT STATUS COULD REDEVELOP OR ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ONCE THE
STRATUS/BR BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO 10KTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 292357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AND
BECOMING LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT BR TO KEAR AFT ABOUT 30/09Z...WITH 1
SM BR NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR KGRI AFT 30/10Z. ALSO INTRODUCED
SOME BKN IFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT STATUS COULD REDEVELOP OR ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ONCE THE
STRATUS/BR BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO 10KTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 292357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATEST GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AND
BECOMING LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT BR TO KEAR AFT ABOUT 30/09Z...WITH 1
SM BR NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR KGRI AFT 30/10Z. ALSO INTRODUCED
SOME BKN IFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS AS IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT STATUS COULD REDEVELOP OR ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ONCE THE
STRATUS/BR BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO 10KTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292325
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES. MVFR FOG MAY
REDEVELOP 09-13Z...AND COULD TEMPORARILY BE IFR AT KOMA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS AT KOFK BY 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KLBF 292325 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC



000
FXUS63 KOAX 292325
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES. MVFR FOG MAY
REDEVELOP 09-13Z...AND COULD TEMPORARILY BE IFR AT KOMA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS AT KOFK BY 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KLBF 292325 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KGID 292059
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KEAR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND FOR KGRI MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR FOG AT KGRI DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING (WHEN DENSE FOG MOVED IN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS)...WAS NOT WILLING TO REMOVE AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL...AS AT LEAST ONE SET OF GUIDANCE TAKES VISIBILITY DOWN
EVEN A BIT FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SURFACE WIND WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING LIGHT TONIGHT BUT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 292059
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IF NOT FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PESKY FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE?) IN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THIS WOULD BE A TRULY
"QUIET" NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LITERALLY
REMAINS ZERO. OTHERWISE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING
FORECAST...AS COMPARED TO TODAY...SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
(POTENTIALLY 5+ DEGREES WARMER IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES) AND ALSO A
BIT BREEZIER OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...IT`S CERTAINLY
BEEN A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
DENSE FOG THAT PLAGUED PRIMARILY THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WE ALSO HAD SOME STUBBORN LOW STRATUS THAT
EVENTUALLY VACATED FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...THE AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED HAZY/MILKY SUNSHINE...AS A
RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING FAR OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
GENERALLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST...PROMOTING A LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A TOUCH MORE OF A
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT TODAY IN HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...WITH FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ONLY MANAGING THE MID-UPPER
70S...WHILE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S-LOW 90S.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE...WAY OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST...A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

NOW LOOKING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: AS MENTIONED AT THE TOP...THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTHEAST. STARTING WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ALOFT...THE DOMINANT/POSITIVELY-TILTED
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA...SQUASHING ANY KIND OF
FORCING FOR PRECIP CHANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVE...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS BY NIGHT`S END.
AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY
BELOW 6-8 MPH. DUE TO BEING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING
RIDGE AXIS...OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON KS LINE) ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE OVERALL
LIGHTEST/NEAR-CALM BREEZES. FURTHERMORE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS ONLY MANAGED TO
DRIFT 10-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT BACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS LOW-LEVEL BREEZES TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SKY COVER IN THE MOSTLY
CLEAR RANGE TONIGHT ALL AREAS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
POTENTIALLY SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST KS COULD IN
FACT DRIFT BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND CLOUD THINGS OVER. OF
GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGE OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS
DECK...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE HWY
281 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE...MAINTAINED THE GENERIC "PATCHY FOG"
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A GREELEY-
MINDEN-OSBORNE LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT BEEFED UP PLACES GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED YORK-SUPERIOR-TIPTON LINE TO "AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE". BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBILITY
PRODUCTS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP/HRRR/NAM12...WE MAY VERY WELL
BE HEADING TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TOO PLAY UP THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. AT LEAST FOR
NOW THOUGH...WILL BE INTRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG
ISSUES INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NUDGED MOST PLACES DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FCST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 57-59 RANGE.

SUNDAY DAYTIME: HAVE ALREADY COVERED EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH SO REFER TO IT FOR THE
DETAILS...BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THE SUMMER WOULD EXPECT
ANY IMPACTFUL FOG TO DISSIPATE BY NO LATER THAN 15Z/10 AM.
OTHERWISE...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...IF ANYTHING THE HEART OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES EVEN MORE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
REGION...AGAIN SQUASHING ANY RISK OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS KEEPS DEPARTING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THE COMBINATION OF
RETURN-FLOW CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODEST HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WILL PROMOTE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...SUSTAINED SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE
10-15 MPH IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND MORE-SO 15-20 MPH
IN NORTHWEST ZONES (WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF COURSE). ASSUMING THAT
SKIES AGAIN AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY...CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS IS FAIRLY HIGH AND MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS MOST OF THE CWA IS AIMED INTO THE 86-90
RANGE...BUT WITH READINGS POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS IN FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (SUCH AS YORK/POLK) AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WE START OFF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
CONSIDERABLE LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WELL UP IN ALASKA. LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETREAT SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH EVENTUALLY AMPLIFIES
BUT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP US WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...KEEPING
US WITHIN A REGIME OF SEASONABLY WARM 80S/90S FOR HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT LEAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVING SAID THIS...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXACTLY
ZERO. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VERY LATE...A FRONTOLYTIC COLD
FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE JUST ENOUGH HEADWAY TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA AND COULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHAT
OPERATIONAL MODEL OR ENSEMBLE YOU LOOK AT. I KEPT CHANCES PRETTY
LOW...MAY A BIT HIGHER IN OUR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONVECTION COULD ALSO GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AT
850 MB BY A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE/S ARRIVE...WITH
THE BEST SHOT LANDING ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...I AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION IS ADVERTISING...SO I AM GENERALLY KNOCKING THIS DOWN
TO 30 AT MOST FOR NOW. PREDICTABILITY WOULD BE TOO LOW TO SPECULATE
SEVERE CHANCES FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KEAR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND FOR KGRI MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR FOG AT KGRI DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING (WHEN DENSE FOG MOVED IN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS)...WAS NOT WILLING TO REMOVE AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL...AS AT LEAST ONE SET OF GUIDANCE TAKES VISIBILITY DOWN
EVEN A BIT FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SURFACE WIND WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING LIGHT TONIGHT BUT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 292048
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR WITH SOME HIGH HAZE/CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SKIES CLEAR...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME
HIGH HAZE/SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NW FIRES.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
INCLUDED AT KLBF...HOWEVER EXPECT FOG TO BE SE OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. TOMORROW A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 292048
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR WITH SOME HIGH HAZE/CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SKIES CLEAR...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME
HIGH HAZE/SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NW FIRES.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
INCLUDED AT KLBF...HOWEVER EXPECT FOG TO BE SE OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. TOMORROW A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK



000
FXUS63 KLBF 292048
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR WITH SOME HIGH HAZE/CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SKIES CLEAR...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME
HIGH HAZE/SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NW FIRES.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
INCLUDED AT KLBF...HOWEVER EXPECT FOG TO BE SE OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. TOMORROW A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 292048
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR WITH SOME HIGH HAZE/CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SKIES CLEAR...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME
HIGH HAZE/SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NW FIRES.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
INCLUDED AT KLBF...HOWEVER EXPECT FOG TO BE SE OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. TOMORROW A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 292032
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MORNING FOG HAS GENERALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOWER
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 20Z AT KOMA AND
KLNK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE CLOUD DECK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 292032
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MORNING FOG HAS GENERALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOWER
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 20Z AT KOMA AND
KLNK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE CLOUD DECK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG



000
FXUS63 KOAX 292032
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MORNING FOG HAS GENERALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOWER
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 20Z AT KOMA AND
KLNK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE CLOUD DECK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 291810
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
110 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN THIS MORNING. WILL
CARRY THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE RETAINED PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND GOOD
INSOLATION OVER THE WEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RADIATING OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD KEEP
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY AT BAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY LOWERING PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CREATE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. AS
A RESULT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH 25 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS...BUT CAPPING ALOFT REMAINS A CONCERN AND WILL NOT GO
BEYOND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING
NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING EXPECT A CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR WITH SOME HIGH HAZE/CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SKIES CLEAR...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME
HIGH HAZE/SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NW FIRES.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
INCLUDED AT KLBF...HOWEVER EXPECT FOG TO BE SE OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. TOMORROW A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 291810
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
110 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN THIS MORNING. WILL
CARRY THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE RETAINED PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND GOOD
INSOLATION OVER THE WEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RADIATING OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD KEEP
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY AT BAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY LOWERING PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CREATE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. AS
A RESULT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH 25 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS...BUT CAPPING ALOFT REMAINS A CONCERN AND WILL NOT GO
BEYOND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING
NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING EXPECT A CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR WITH SOME HIGH HAZE/CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SKIES CLEAR...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME
HIGH HAZE/SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NW FIRES.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
INCLUDED AT KLBF...HOWEVER EXPECT FOG TO BE SE OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. TOMORROW A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK



000
FXUS63 KGID 291737
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALTHOUGH "SMALL POTATOES" IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF A QUIET WEATHER
DAY...OPTED TO NUDGE UP SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TO "MOSTLY SUNNY"
INSTEAD OF OUTRIGHT "SUNNY"...THANKS TO THE MILKY SKY THAT LARGELY
APPEARS TO BE RESULTING FROM YET ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ACTS TO HOLD
HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT THUS FAR HAVE MADE ZERO CHANGES TO
HIGHS FROM THE EARLY-MORNING ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IT TOOK A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...BUT FINALLY WE HAVE
BURNED OFF THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH
JUST HAPPENED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY WITHIN 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WILL BE REMOVING ANY FOG
MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY...THE OBVIOUS CHALLENGE
GOING FORWARD IS TRYING TO TIME THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY BLANKETING MOST OF THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA. BASED ON LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE FRAMES AND LOW CLOUD
PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...EXPECT A CONTINUED STEADY EROSION OF
THIS STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND NOON/1PM...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED TO ENJOY NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KEAR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND FOR KGRI MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR FOG AT KGRI DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING (WHEN DENSE FOG MOVED IN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS)...WAS NOT WILLING TO REMOVE AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL...AS AT LEAST ONE SET OF GUIDANCE TAKES VISIBILITY DOWN
EVEN A BIT FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SURFACE WIND WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING LIGHT TONIGHT BUT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 291737
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALTHOUGH "SMALL POTATOES" IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF A QUIET WEATHER
DAY...OPTED TO NUDGE UP SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TO "MOSTLY SUNNY"
INSTEAD OF OUTRIGHT "SUNNY"...THANKS TO THE MILKY SKY THAT LARGELY
APPEARS TO BE RESULTING FROM YET ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ACTS TO HOLD
HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT THUS FAR HAVE MADE ZERO CHANGES TO
HIGHS FROM THE EARLY-MORNING ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IT TOOK A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...BUT FINALLY WE HAVE
BURNED OFF THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH
JUST HAPPENED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY WITHIN 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WILL BE REMOVING ANY FOG
MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY...THE OBVIOUS CHALLENGE
GOING FORWARD IS TRYING TO TIME THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY BLANKETING MOST OF THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA. BASED ON LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE FRAMES AND LOW CLOUD
PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...EXPECT A CONTINUED STEADY EROSION OF
THIS STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND NOON/1PM...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED TO ENJOY NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KEAR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND FOR KGRI MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR FOG AT KGRI DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING (WHEN DENSE FOG MOVED IN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS)...WAS NOT WILLING TO REMOVE AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL...AS AT LEAST ONE SET OF GUIDANCE TAKES VISIBILITY DOWN
EVEN A BIT FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SURFACE WIND WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING LIGHT TONIGHT BUT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 291737
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALTHOUGH "SMALL POTATOES" IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF A QUIET WEATHER
DAY...OPTED TO NUDGE UP SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TO "MOSTLY SUNNY"
INSTEAD OF OUTRIGHT "SUNNY"...THANKS TO THE MILKY SKY THAT LARGELY
APPEARS TO BE RESULTING FROM YET ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ACTS TO HOLD
HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT THUS FAR HAVE MADE ZERO CHANGES TO
HIGHS FROM THE EARLY-MORNING ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IT TOOK A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...BUT FINALLY WE HAVE
BURNED OFF THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH
JUST HAPPENED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY WITHIN 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WILL BE REMOVING ANY FOG
MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY...THE OBVIOUS CHALLENGE
GOING FORWARD IS TRYING TO TIME THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY BLANKETING MOST OF THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA. BASED ON LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE FRAMES AND LOW CLOUD
PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...EXPECT A CONTINUED STEADY EROSION OF
THIS STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND NOON/1PM...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED TO ENJOY NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KEAR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND FOR KGRI MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR FOG AT KGRI DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING (WHEN DENSE FOG MOVED IN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS)...WAS NOT WILLING TO REMOVE AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL...AS AT LEAST ONE SET OF GUIDANCE TAKES VISIBILITY DOWN
EVEN A BIT FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SURFACE WIND WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING LIGHT TONIGHT BUT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 291737
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALTHOUGH "SMALL POTATOES" IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF A QUIET WEATHER
DAY...OPTED TO NUDGE UP SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TO "MOSTLY SUNNY"
INSTEAD OF OUTRIGHT "SUNNY"...THANKS TO THE MILKY SKY THAT LARGELY
APPEARS TO BE RESULTING FROM YET ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ACTS TO HOLD
HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT THUS FAR HAVE MADE ZERO CHANGES TO
HIGHS FROM THE EARLY-MORNING ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IT TOOK A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...BUT FINALLY WE HAVE
BURNED OFF THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH
JUST HAPPENED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY WITHIN 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WILL BE REMOVING ANY FOG
MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY...THE OBVIOUS CHALLENGE
GOING FORWARD IS TRYING TO TIME THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY BLANKETING MOST OF THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA. BASED ON LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE FRAMES AND LOW CLOUD
PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...EXPECT A CONTINUED STEADY EROSION OF
THIS STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND NOON/1PM...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED TO ENJOY NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KEAR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND FOR KGRI MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR FOG AT KGRI DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING (WHEN DENSE FOG MOVED IN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS)...WAS NOT WILLING TO REMOVE AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL...AS AT LEAST ONE SET OF GUIDANCE TAKES VISIBILITY DOWN
EVEN A BIT FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SURFACE WIND WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING LIGHT TONIGHT BUT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 291737
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALTHOUGH "SMALL POTATOES" IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF A QUIET WEATHER
DAY...OPTED TO NUDGE UP SKY COVER PERCENTAGES TO "MOSTLY SUNNY"
INSTEAD OF OUTRIGHT "SUNNY"...THANKS TO THE MILKY SKY THAT LARGELY
APPEARS TO BE RESULTING FROM YET ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN WILDFIRES. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ACTS TO HOLD
HIGH TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT THUS FAR HAVE MADE ZERO CHANGES TO
HIGHS FROM THE EARLY-MORNING ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IT TOOK A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...BUT FINALLY WE HAVE
BURNED OFF THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH
JUST HAPPENED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY WITHIN 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WILL BE REMOVING ANY FOG
MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY...THE OBVIOUS CHALLENGE
GOING FORWARD IS TRYING TO TIME THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY BLANKETING MOST OF THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA. BASED ON LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE FRAMES AND LOW CLOUD
PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...EXPECT A CONTINUED STEADY EROSION OF
THIS STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND NOON/1PM...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED TO ENJOY NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KEAR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND FOR KGRI MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
DID MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. ALTHOUGH
THE OVERALL SETUP FOR FOG AT KGRI DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING (WHEN DENSE FOG MOVED IN FOR SEVERAL
HOURS)...WAS NOT WILLING TO REMOVE AT LEAST LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL...AS AT LEAST ONE SET OF GUIDANCE TAKES VISIBILITY DOWN
EVEN A BIT FURTHER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SURFACE WIND WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE REGIME
THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING LIGHT TONIGHT BUT BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291715
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MORNING FOG HAS GENERALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOWER
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 20Z AT KOMA AND
KLNK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE CLOUD DECK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291715
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MORNING FOG HAS GENERALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOWER
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 20Z AT KOMA AND
KLNK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE CLOUD DECK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KG



000
FXUS63 KOAX 291715
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MORNING FOG HAS GENERALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER LOWER
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 20Z AT KOMA AND
KLNK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE CLOUD DECK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KG




000
FXUS63 KGID 291529
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1029 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IT TOOK A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...BUT FINALLY WE HAVE
BURNED OFF THE VAST MAJORITY OF LINGERING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...WHICH
JUST HAPPENED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY WITHIN 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF
THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WILL BE REMOVING ANY FOG
MENTION FROM THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY...THE OBVIOUS CHALLENGE
GOING FORWARD IS TRYING TO TIME THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY BLANKETING MOST OF THE EASTERN 1/2
OF THE CWA. BASED ON LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE FRAMES AND LOW CLOUD
PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR...EXPECT A CONTINUED STEADY EROSION OF
THIS STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND NOON/1PM...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED TO ENJOY NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WORST
OF THE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. THIS FOG HAS MADE IT INTO KGRI...BUT AS OF 515 AM
KEAR HAS REMAINED JUST WEST OF THE FOG. EXPECT THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER WEST UNTIL JUST HAVE DAWN WHEN IT
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ERODE. KEAR COULD ALSO SEE A LITTLE FOG
BEFORE IT ALL BEGINS TO BURN OFF. KGRI HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 SM
AND 200 FT AGL CEILINGS. THIS IS A RADIATION FOG AND IT SHOULD
QUICKLY BURN OFF BY AROUND 9 AM. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO EASTERLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 291202 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
702 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN THIS MORNING. WILL
CARRY THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE RETAINED PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND GOOD
INSOLATION OVER THE WEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RADIATING OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD KEEP
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY AT BAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY LOWERING PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CREATE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. AS
A RESULT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH 25 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS...BUT CAPPING ALOFT REMAINS A CONCERN AND WILL NOT GO
BEYOND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING
NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING EXPECT A CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF A LINE
FROM KLBF TO KONL. THE STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERRODE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 291202 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
702 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN THIS MORNING. WILL
CARRY THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE RETAINED PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND GOOD
INSOLATION OVER THE WEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RADIATING OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD KEEP
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY AT BAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY LOWERING PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CREATE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. AS
A RESULT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH 25 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS...BUT CAPPING ALOFT REMAINS A CONCERN AND WILL NOT GO
BEYOND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING
NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING EXPECT A CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF A LINE
FROM KLBF TO KONL. THE STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERRODE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 291202 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
702 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN THIS MORNING. WILL
CARRY THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE RETAINED PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND GOOD
INSOLATION OVER THE WEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RADIATING OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD KEEP
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY AT BAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY LOWERING PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CREATE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. AS
A RESULT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH 25 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS...BUT CAPPING ALOFT REMAINS A CONCERN AND WILL NOT GO
BEYOND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING
NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING EXPECT A CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF A LINE
FROM KLBF TO KONL. THE STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERRODE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 291202 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
702 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN THIS MORNING. WILL
CARRY THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE RETAINED PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND GOOD
INSOLATION OVER THE WEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RADIATING OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD KEEP
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY AT BAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY LOWERING PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CREATE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. AS
A RESULT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH 25 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS...BUT CAPPING ALOFT REMAINS A CONCERN AND WILL NOT GO
BEYOND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING
NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING EXPECT A CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF A LINE
FROM KLBF TO KONL. THE STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERRODE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 291202 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
702 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN THIS MORNING. WILL
CARRY THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE RETAINED PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND GOOD
INSOLATION OVER THE WEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RADIATING OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD KEEP
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY AT BAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY LOWERING PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CREATE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. AS
A RESULT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH 25 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS...BUT CAPPING ALOFT REMAINS A CONCERN AND WILL NOT GO
BEYOND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING
NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING EXPECT A CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF A LINE
FROM KLBF TO KONL. THE STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERRODE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 291202 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
702 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN THIS MORNING. WILL
CARRY THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE RETAINED PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND GOOD
INSOLATION OVER THE WEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RADIATING OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD KEEP
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY AT BAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY LOWERING PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CREATE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. AS
A RESULT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH 25 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS...BUT CAPPING ALOFT REMAINS A CONCERN AND WILL NOT GO
BEYOND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING
NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING EXPECT A CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF A LINE
FROM KLBF TO KONL. THE STRATUS WILL SLOWLY ERRODE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND MIST DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE LIGHT
WINDS BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KOAX 291130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND MIST DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE LIGHT
WINDS BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KOAX 291130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND MIST DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE LIGHT
WINDS BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KOAX 291130
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY LATER IN THE MORNING. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FOG AND STRATUS WILL EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHERE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE.

OUTSIDE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER
EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE. MAIN ENERGY
STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH FRONT WASHING OUT BY TUESDAY AS
MORE ROBUST TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS SHORT TERM WITH
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY AND FLATTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS MORE
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD HAS AREA UNDER MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
AS WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEST COAST. PRIMARILY VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL CONT AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND MIST DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE LIGHT
WINDS BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KGID 291036
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
536 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WORST
OF THE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. THIS FOG HAS MADE IT INTO KGRI...BUT AS OF 515 AM
KEAR HAS REMAINED JUST WEST OF THE FOG. EXPECT THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER WEST UNTIL JUST HAVE DAWN WHEN IT
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ERODE. KEAR COULD ALSO SEE A LITTLE FOG
BEFORE IT ALL BEGINS TO BURN OFF. KGRI HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 SM
AND 200 FT AGL CEILINGS. THIS IS A RADIATION FOG AND IT SHOULD
QUICKLY BURN OFF BY AROUND 9 AM. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO EASTERLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 291036
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
536 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF FOG
THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT AND AT TIMES EVEN CALM
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A SFC HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THE RECENT DRY TREND LOCALLY WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR OUR STATION ON THE OUTSKIRTS
OF HASTINGS. IF WE CAN HAVE FOG HERE OVER A DRY PASTURE WHERE WE
HAVE NOT HAD MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3
WEEKS...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG NEAR
IRRIGATED FIELDS AND IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE THEY HAVE HAD RAIN
MORE RECENTLY. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT THE FOG WILL BE
RATHER PATCHY AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW POOR THE
VISIBILITY WILL GET...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS BRIEFLY REPORT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.

ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY AROUND 9 AM
WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WILL ONCE AGAIN
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP US SEE A LITTLE WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE UPPER 80S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

ALOFT: SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVES WAS UNDERWAY. THE
RIDGE THAT DOMINATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS PAST WEEK WILL HEAD
DOWNSTREAM...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO ERN CANADA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. THE TROF OVER THE E PAC WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WRN USA AND
REMAIN PARKED THERE RESULTING IN DAYS OF SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE N AND W. NO
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROFS OR QG FORCING IS FORESEEN ATTM.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ERN USA THRU THE
FCST. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING ONTO THE W COAST ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THRU THE WRN USA WITH ITS TAIL END MOVING IN HERE MON
AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SLOWING AND THEN DISSIPATING. THE NEXT PAC COOL
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE W AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS E WITH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. SO ESSENTIALLY THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
THRU THE ENTIRE FCST.

WE`VE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO WKS. ENVISION NO CHANGE
TO THAT IN THIS FCST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FEW...AROUND THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...AND THEN POSSIBLY FRI-SAT.
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SPOTTY. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL.

THREATS FOR POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WX ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WORST
OF THE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. THIS FOG HAS MADE IT INTO KGRI...BUT AS OF 515 AM
KEAR HAS REMAINED JUST WEST OF THE FOG. EXPECT THE FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER WEST UNTIL JUST HAVE DAWN WHEN IT
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ERODE. KEAR COULD ALSO SEE A LITTLE FOG
BEFORE IT ALL BEGINS TO BURN OFF. KGRI HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 SM
AND 200 FT AGL CEILINGS. THIS IS A RADIATION FOG AND IT SHOULD
QUICKLY BURN OFF BY AROUND 9 AM. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO EASTERLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



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