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000
FXUS63 KGID 270653
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE FIRST LATE-NIGHT FORECAST UPDATE IS ON ITS WAY...AND IN THIS
CASE ONLY PERTAINS TO THESE NEXT 12 HOURS THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON.
ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO AMOUNT TO MUCH...BY FAR
THE MAIN UPDATE INVOLVES THE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO MUCH OF THE NEB PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN NOW AND
MID-MORNING...BEFORE THIS FLURRY POTENTIAL (IF IT EVEN HAPPENS)
STEADILY DEPARTS EAST OF THE CWA. IN SHORT...FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE
00Z NAM EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A RIBBON OF SATURATION/MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE TO PLACE THE FLURRY MENTION.
IN FACT...AT THIS MOMENT RADAR INDICATES SOME WEAK ECHOES DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST-CENTRAL NEB INTO SOME OF OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...ITS JUST A MATTER OF WHETHER OR NOT ANY FLURRIES ARE
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND...AND IN THIS CASE OPTED TO COVER
THE POSSIBILITY. THESE SITUATIONS WITH FAIRLY NARROW RIBBONS OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ARE NOT UNCOMMON ON THE IMMEDIATE BACK-SIDE OF
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND SURE ENOUGH A 120-140KT
NORTHWESTERLY STREAK AT 300 MILLIBARS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FROM
WESTERN IA INTO MO. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY GROUND-TRUTH
OF FLURRY POTENTIAL SHOWS ITS HAND OVERNIGHT...

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...ONLY MADE VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO REALIZE MORNING LOWS IN THE 13-20
RANGE...ALTHOUGH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE HOURLY TREND
TRICKY. NO OTHER SHORT TERM CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE YET...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.  AN UPPER JET WAS CROSSING THE PLAINS AND A FEW FLURRIES
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NEB.  RADAR MOSAIC IS PICKING UP ON THE CLOUD
COVER BUT WITH TEMP/DP SPREADS AROUND TEN DEGREES...JUST NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FOR PCPN AND HAVE LEFT THINGS DRY ATTM.

A COLD 1038MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE
IN THE TEENS.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE COLD CONDITIONS OF TODAY AND A NICE
WARMUP COMMENCING FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT
WHILE WARMER AIR/SUBTLE RIDGING EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH OUR WESTERN ZONES REACHING THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 FOR HIGHS...WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL LOOKING AT THESE TWO DAYS
EASILY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FRIDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE NERN CONUS AND
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BUT IT DOES GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW
REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NO DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD
THE SOLUTION THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS STARTING OUT THURS EVENING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER TEENS ON SATURDAY. SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE W/SWRLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THANKS TO A
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO
THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A
COUPLE REAL NICE DAYS. FRIDAYS HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SATURDAY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S
CWA-WIDE. DO HAVE ONE CONCERN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A COUPLE OF 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET A TOUCH FURTHER
SOUTH ON SATURDAY /NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER/ THAN ON FRIDAY. ISSUE
WITH THIS IS HOW MUCH CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND...ESP ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A
BIT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS TO CONSIDER.

THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS HAD BEEN POINTING TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL
AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT SAT/SUN WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NRN
CONUS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS TODAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL LINGER AROUND AS
WE GET INTO MONDAY AS WELL...BUT AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY...WE SEE A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THAT AIRMASS SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SUN/MON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT IN THE 20S/30S...WITH TUES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S/40S. THE
FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUES REMAINS DRY...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY /DAY 7/ IS LOW DUE TO
INCREASING SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS SOLUTIONS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME KIND OF DISTURBANCE OVER THE WRN CONUS...THE
GFS IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND VS THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
OFF THE COAST. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...MOVING IT THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH
INCREASING LIFT RESULTING IN QPF OVER THE AREA.  THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW CLOSED OFF AND THUS IS SLOWER WITH IS MOVEMENT...WHICH ENDS UP
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA AND STAYING DRY. AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEPT
DRY...AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY WITH ONLY
VARYING DEGREES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
CENTERED NEAR SUNRISE COULD FEATURE CEILING DIPPING DOWN AS LOW AS
AROUND 5K FEET. ALONG THOSE LINES...SUPPOSE EVEN A FEW ROGUE
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT SOME POINT MAINLY DURING THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WORTH A FORMAL
MENTION. JUMPING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE PERIOD MAINLY AFTER 03Z
THURSDAY EVENING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD AT LEAST
APPROACH MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OF 30+KT OF OVERALL SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS WELL BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS WORTHY OF INCLUSION. AS
FOR SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING
THE DAY (GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20KT)...BEFORE DECREASING A BIT
DURING THE EVENING BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10KT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 270653
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE FIRST LATE-NIGHT FORECAST UPDATE IS ON ITS WAY...AND IN THIS
CASE ONLY PERTAINS TO THESE NEXT 12 HOURS THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON.
ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO AMOUNT TO MUCH...BY FAR
THE MAIN UPDATE INVOLVES THE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO MUCH OF THE NEB PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN NOW AND
MID-MORNING...BEFORE THIS FLURRY POTENTIAL (IF IT EVEN HAPPENS)
STEADILY DEPARTS EAST OF THE CWA. IN SHORT...FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE
00Z NAM EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A RIBBON OF SATURATION/MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE TO PLACE THE FLURRY MENTION.
IN FACT...AT THIS MOMENT RADAR INDICATES SOME WEAK ECHOES DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST-CENTRAL NEB INTO SOME OF OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...ITS JUST A MATTER OF WHETHER OR NOT ANY FLURRIES ARE
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND...AND IN THIS CASE OPTED TO COVER
THE POSSIBILITY. THESE SITUATIONS WITH FAIRLY NARROW RIBBONS OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ARE NOT UNCOMMON ON THE IMMEDIATE BACK-SIDE OF
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND SURE ENOUGH A 120-140KT
NORTHWESTERLY STREAK AT 300 MILLIBARS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FROM
WESTERN IA INTO MO. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY GROUND-TRUTH
OF FLURRY POTENTIAL SHOWS ITS HAND OVERNIGHT...

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...ONLY MADE VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO REALIZE MORNING LOWS IN THE 13-20
RANGE...ALTHOUGH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE HOURLY TREND
TRICKY. NO OTHER SHORT TERM CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE YET...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.  AN UPPER JET WAS CROSSING THE PLAINS AND A FEW FLURRIES
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NEB.  RADAR MOSAIC IS PICKING UP ON THE CLOUD
COVER BUT WITH TEMP/DP SPREADS AROUND TEN DEGREES...JUST NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FOR PCPN AND HAVE LEFT THINGS DRY ATTM.

A COLD 1038MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE
IN THE TEENS.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE COLD CONDITIONS OF TODAY AND A NICE
WARMUP COMMENCING FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT
WHILE WARMER AIR/SUBTLE RIDGING EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH OUR WESTERN ZONES REACHING THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 FOR HIGHS...WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL LOOKING AT THESE TWO DAYS
EASILY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FRIDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE NERN CONUS AND
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BUT IT DOES GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW
REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NO DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD
THE SOLUTION THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS STARTING OUT THURS EVENING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER TEENS ON SATURDAY. SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE W/SWRLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THANKS TO A
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO
THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A
COUPLE REAL NICE DAYS. FRIDAYS HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SATURDAY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S
CWA-WIDE. DO HAVE ONE CONCERN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A COUPLE OF 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET A TOUCH FURTHER
SOUTH ON SATURDAY /NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER/ THAN ON FRIDAY. ISSUE
WITH THIS IS HOW MUCH CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND...ESP ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A
BIT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS TO CONSIDER.

THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS HAD BEEN POINTING TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL
AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT SAT/SUN WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NRN
CONUS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS TODAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL LINGER AROUND AS
WE GET INTO MONDAY AS WELL...BUT AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY...WE SEE A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THAT AIRMASS SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SUN/MON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT IN THE 20S/30S...WITH TUES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S/40S. THE
FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUES REMAINS DRY...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY /DAY 7/ IS LOW DUE TO
INCREASING SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS SOLUTIONS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME KIND OF DISTURBANCE OVER THE WRN CONUS...THE
GFS IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND VS THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
OFF THE COAST. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...MOVING IT THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH
INCREASING LIFT RESULTING IN QPF OVER THE AREA.  THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW CLOSED OFF AND THUS IS SLOWER WITH IS MOVEMENT...WHICH ENDS UP
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA AND STAYING DRY. AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEPT
DRY...AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY WITH ONLY
VARYING DEGREES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
CENTERED NEAR SUNRISE COULD FEATURE CEILING DIPPING DOWN AS LOW AS
AROUND 5K FEET. ALONG THOSE LINES...SUPPOSE EVEN A FEW ROGUE
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT SOME POINT MAINLY DURING THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WORTH A FORMAL
MENTION. JUMPING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE PERIOD MAINLY AFTER 03Z
THURSDAY EVENING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD AT LEAST
APPROACH MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OF 30+KT OF OVERALL SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS WELL BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS WORTHY OF INCLUSION. AS
FOR SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING
THE DAY (GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20KT)...BEFORE DECREASING A BIT
DURING THE EVENING BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10KT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 270653
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE FIRST LATE-NIGHT FORECAST UPDATE IS ON ITS WAY...AND IN THIS
CASE ONLY PERTAINS TO THESE NEXT 12 HOURS THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON.
ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO AMOUNT TO MUCH...BY FAR
THE MAIN UPDATE INVOLVES THE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO MUCH OF THE NEB PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN NOW AND
MID-MORNING...BEFORE THIS FLURRY POTENTIAL (IF IT EVEN HAPPENS)
STEADILY DEPARTS EAST OF THE CWA. IN SHORT...FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE
00Z NAM EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A RIBBON OF SATURATION/MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE TO PLACE THE FLURRY MENTION.
IN FACT...AT THIS MOMENT RADAR INDICATES SOME WEAK ECHOES DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST-CENTRAL NEB INTO SOME OF OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...ITS JUST A MATTER OF WHETHER OR NOT ANY FLURRIES ARE
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND...AND IN THIS CASE OPTED TO COVER
THE POSSIBILITY. THESE SITUATIONS WITH FAIRLY NARROW RIBBONS OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ARE NOT UNCOMMON ON THE IMMEDIATE BACK-SIDE OF
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND SURE ENOUGH A 120-140KT
NORTHWESTERLY STREAK AT 300 MILLIBARS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FROM
WESTERN IA INTO MO. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY GROUND-TRUTH
OF FLURRY POTENTIAL SHOWS ITS HAND OVERNIGHT...

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...ONLY MADE VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO REALIZE MORNING LOWS IN THE 13-20
RANGE...ALTHOUGH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE HOURLY TREND
TRICKY. NO OTHER SHORT TERM CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE YET...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.  AN UPPER JET WAS CROSSING THE PLAINS AND A FEW FLURRIES
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NEB.  RADAR MOSAIC IS PICKING UP ON THE CLOUD
COVER BUT WITH TEMP/DP SPREADS AROUND TEN DEGREES...JUST NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FOR PCPN AND HAVE LEFT THINGS DRY ATTM.

A COLD 1038MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE
IN THE TEENS.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE COLD CONDITIONS OF TODAY AND A NICE
WARMUP COMMENCING FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT
WHILE WARMER AIR/SUBTLE RIDGING EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH OUR WESTERN ZONES REACHING THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 FOR HIGHS...WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL LOOKING AT THESE TWO DAYS
EASILY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FRIDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE NERN CONUS AND
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BUT IT DOES GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW
REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NO DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD
THE SOLUTION THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS STARTING OUT THURS EVENING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER TEENS ON SATURDAY. SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE W/SWRLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THANKS TO A
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO
THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A
COUPLE REAL NICE DAYS. FRIDAYS HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SATURDAY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S
CWA-WIDE. DO HAVE ONE CONCERN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A COUPLE OF 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET A TOUCH FURTHER
SOUTH ON SATURDAY /NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER/ THAN ON FRIDAY. ISSUE
WITH THIS IS HOW MUCH CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND...ESP ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A
BIT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS TO CONSIDER.

THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS HAD BEEN POINTING TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL
AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT SAT/SUN WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NRN
CONUS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS TODAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL LINGER AROUND AS
WE GET INTO MONDAY AS WELL...BUT AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY...WE SEE A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THAT AIRMASS SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SUN/MON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT IN THE 20S/30S...WITH TUES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S/40S. THE
FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUES REMAINS DRY...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY /DAY 7/ IS LOW DUE TO
INCREASING SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS SOLUTIONS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME KIND OF DISTURBANCE OVER THE WRN CONUS...THE
GFS IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND VS THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
OFF THE COAST. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...MOVING IT THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH
INCREASING LIFT RESULTING IN QPF OVER THE AREA.  THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW CLOSED OFF AND THUS IS SLOWER WITH IS MOVEMENT...WHICH ENDS UP
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA AND STAYING DRY. AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEPT
DRY...AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY WITH ONLY
VARYING DEGREES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
CENTERED NEAR SUNRISE COULD FEATURE CEILING DIPPING DOWN AS LOW AS
AROUND 5K FEET. ALONG THOSE LINES...SUPPOSE EVEN A FEW ROGUE
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT SOME POINT MAINLY DURING THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WORTH A FORMAL
MENTION. JUMPING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE PERIOD MAINLY AFTER 03Z
THURSDAY EVENING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD AT LEAST
APPROACH MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OF 30+KT OF OVERALL SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS WELL BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS WORTHY OF INCLUSION. AS
FOR SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING
THE DAY (GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20KT)...BEFORE DECREASING A BIT
DURING THE EVENING BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10KT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 270653
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE FIRST LATE-NIGHT FORECAST UPDATE IS ON ITS WAY...AND IN THIS
CASE ONLY PERTAINS TO THESE NEXT 12 HOURS THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON.
ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO AMOUNT TO MUCH...BY FAR
THE MAIN UPDATE INVOLVES THE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO MUCH OF THE NEB PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN NOW AND
MID-MORNING...BEFORE THIS FLURRY POTENTIAL (IF IT EVEN HAPPENS)
STEADILY DEPARTS EAST OF THE CWA. IN SHORT...FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE
00Z NAM EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A RIBBON OF SATURATION/MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE TO PLACE THE FLURRY MENTION.
IN FACT...AT THIS MOMENT RADAR INDICATES SOME WEAK ECHOES DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST-CENTRAL NEB INTO SOME OF OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...ITS JUST A MATTER OF WHETHER OR NOT ANY FLURRIES ARE
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND...AND IN THIS CASE OPTED TO COVER
THE POSSIBILITY. THESE SITUATIONS WITH FAIRLY NARROW RIBBONS OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ARE NOT UNCOMMON ON THE IMMEDIATE BACK-SIDE OF
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND SURE ENOUGH A 120-140KT
NORTHWESTERLY STREAK AT 300 MILLIBARS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FROM
WESTERN IA INTO MO. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY GROUND-TRUTH
OF FLURRY POTENTIAL SHOWS ITS HAND OVERNIGHT...

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...ONLY MADE VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO REALIZE MORNING LOWS IN THE 13-20
RANGE...ALTHOUGH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE HOURLY TREND
TRICKY. NO OTHER SHORT TERM CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE YET...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.  AN UPPER JET WAS CROSSING THE PLAINS AND A FEW FLURRIES
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NEB.  RADAR MOSAIC IS PICKING UP ON THE CLOUD
COVER BUT WITH TEMP/DP SPREADS AROUND TEN DEGREES...JUST NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FOR PCPN AND HAVE LEFT THINGS DRY ATTM.

A COLD 1038MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE
IN THE TEENS.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE COLD CONDITIONS OF TODAY AND A NICE
WARMUP COMMENCING FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT
WHILE WARMER AIR/SUBTLE RIDGING EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH OUR WESTERN ZONES REACHING THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 FOR HIGHS...WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL LOOKING AT THESE TWO DAYS
EASILY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FRIDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE NERN CONUS AND
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BUT IT DOES GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW
REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NO DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD
THE SOLUTION THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS STARTING OUT THURS EVENING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER TEENS ON SATURDAY. SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE W/SWRLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THANKS TO A
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO
THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A
COUPLE REAL NICE DAYS. FRIDAYS HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SATURDAY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S
CWA-WIDE. DO HAVE ONE CONCERN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A COUPLE OF 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET A TOUCH FURTHER
SOUTH ON SATURDAY /NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER/ THAN ON FRIDAY. ISSUE
WITH THIS IS HOW MUCH CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND...ESP ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A
BIT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS TO CONSIDER.

THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS HAD BEEN POINTING TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL
AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT SAT/SUN WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NRN
CONUS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS TODAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL LINGER AROUND AS
WE GET INTO MONDAY AS WELL...BUT AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY...WE SEE A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THAT AIRMASS SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SUN/MON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT IN THE 20S/30S...WITH TUES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S/40S. THE
FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUES REMAINS DRY...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY /DAY 7/ IS LOW DUE TO
INCREASING SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS SOLUTIONS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME KIND OF DISTURBANCE OVER THE WRN CONUS...THE
GFS IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND VS THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
OFF THE COAST. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...MOVING IT THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH
INCREASING LIFT RESULTING IN QPF OVER THE AREA.  THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW CLOSED OFF AND THUS IS SLOWER WITH IS MOVEMENT...WHICH ENDS UP
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA AND STAYING DRY. AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEPT
DRY...AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY WITH ONLY
VARYING DEGREES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
CENTERED NEAR SUNRISE COULD FEATURE CEILING DIPPING DOWN AS LOW AS
AROUND 5K FEET. ALONG THOSE LINES...SUPPOSE EVEN A FEW ROGUE
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT SOME POINT MAINLY DURING THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WORTH A FORMAL
MENTION. JUMPING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE PERIOD MAINLY AFTER 03Z
THURSDAY EVENING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD AT LEAST
APPROACH MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OF 30+KT OF OVERALL SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS WELL BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS WORTHY OF INCLUSION. AS
FOR SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING
THE DAY (GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20KT)...BEFORE DECREASING A BIT
DURING THE EVENING BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10KT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 270600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.  AN UPPER JET WAS CROSSING THE PLAINS AND A FEW FLURRIES
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NEB.  RADAR MOSAIC IS PICKING UP ON THE CLOUD
COVER BUT WITH TEMP/DP SPREADS AROUND TEN DEGREES...JUST NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FOR PCPN AND HAVE LEFT THINGS DRY ATTM.

A COLD 1038MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE
IN THE TEENS.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE COLD CONDITIONS OF TODAY AND A NICE
WARMUP COMMENCING FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT
WHILE WARMER AIR/SUBTLE RIDGING EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH OUR WESTERN ZONES REACHING THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 FOR HIGHS...WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL LOOKING AT THESE TWO DAYS
EASILY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FRIDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE NERN CONUS AND
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BUT IT DOES GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW
REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NO DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD
THE SOLUTION THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS STARTING OUT THURS EVENING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER TEENS ON SATURDAY. SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE W/SWRLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THANKS TO A
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO
THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A
COUPLE REAL NICE DAYS. FRIDAYS HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SATURDAY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S
CWA-WIDE. DO HAVE ONE CONCERN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A COUPLE OF 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET A TOUCH FURTHER
SOUTH ON SATURDAY /NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER/ THAN ON FRIDAY. ISSUE
WITH THIS IS HOW MUCH CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND...ESP ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A
BIT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS TO CONSIDER.

THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS HAD BEEN POINTING TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL
AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT SAT/SUN WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NRN
CONUS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS TODAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL LINGER AROUND AS
WE GET INTO MONDAY AS WELL...BUT AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY...WE SEE A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THAT AIRMASS SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SUN/MON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT IN THE 20S/30S...WITH TUES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S/40S. THE
FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUES REMAINS DRY...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY /DAY 7/ IS LOW DUE TO
INCREASING SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS SOLUTIONS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME KIND OF DISTURBANCE OVER THE WRN CONUS...THE
GFS IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND VS THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
OFF THE COAST. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...MOVING IT THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH
INCREASING LIFT RESULTING IN QPF OVER THE AREA.  THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW CLOSED OFF AND THUS IS SLOWER WITH IS MOVEMENT...WHICH ENDS UP
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA AND STAYING DRY. AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEPT
DRY...AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY WITH ONLY
VARYING DEGREES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
CENTERED NEAR SUNRISE COULD FEATURE CEILING DIPPING DOWN AS LOW AS
AROUND 5K FEET. ALONG THOSE LINES...SUPPOSE EVEN A FEW ROGUE
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT SOME POINT MAINLY DURING THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WORTH A FORMAL
MENTION. JUMPING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE PERIOD MAINLY AFTER 03Z
THURSDAY EVENING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD AT LEAST
APPROACH MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OF 30+KT OF OVERALL SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS WELL BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS WORTHY OF INCLUSION. AS
FOR SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING
THE DAY (GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20KT)...BEFORE DECREASING A BIT
DURING THE EVENING BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 270600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.  AN UPPER JET WAS CROSSING THE PLAINS AND A FEW FLURRIES
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NEB.  RADAR MOSAIC IS PICKING UP ON THE CLOUD
COVER BUT WITH TEMP/DP SPREADS AROUND TEN DEGREES...JUST NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FOR PCPN AND HAVE LEFT THINGS DRY ATTM.

A COLD 1038MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE
IN THE TEENS.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE COLD CONDITIONS OF TODAY AND A NICE
WARMUP COMMENCING FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT
WHILE WARMER AIR/SUBTLE RIDGING EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH OUR WESTERN ZONES REACHING THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 FOR HIGHS...WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL LOOKING AT THESE TWO DAYS
EASILY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FRIDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE NERN CONUS AND
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BUT IT DOES GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW
REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NO DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD
THE SOLUTION THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS STARTING OUT THURS EVENING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER TEENS ON SATURDAY. SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE W/SWRLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THANKS TO A
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO
THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A
COUPLE REAL NICE DAYS. FRIDAYS HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SATURDAY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S
CWA-WIDE. DO HAVE ONE CONCERN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A COUPLE OF 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET A TOUCH FURTHER
SOUTH ON SATURDAY /NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER/ THAN ON FRIDAY. ISSUE
WITH THIS IS HOW MUCH CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND...ESP ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A
BIT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS TO CONSIDER.

THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS HAD BEEN POINTING TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL
AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT SAT/SUN WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NRN
CONUS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS TODAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL LINGER AROUND AS
WE GET INTO MONDAY AS WELL...BUT AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY...WE SEE A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THAT AIRMASS SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SUN/MON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT IN THE 20S/30S...WITH TUES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S/40S. THE
FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUES REMAINS DRY...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY /DAY 7/ IS LOW DUE TO
INCREASING SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS SOLUTIONS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME KIND OF DISTURBANCE OVER THE WRN CONUS...THE
GFS IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND VS THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
OFF THE COAST. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...MOVING IT THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH
INCREASING LIFT RESULTING IN QPF OVER THE AREA.  THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW CLOSED OFF AND THUS IS SLOWER WITH IS MOVEMENT...WHICH ENDS UP
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA AND STAYING DRY. AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEPT
DRY...AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY WITH ONLY
VARYING DEGREES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
CENTERED NEAR SUNRISE COULD FEATURE CEILING DIPPING DOWN AS LOW AS
AROUND 5K FEET. ALONG THOSE LINES...SUPPOSE EVEN A FEW ROGUE
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT SOME POINT MAINLY DURING THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WORTH A FORMAL
MENTION. JUMPING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE PERIOD MAINLY AFTER 03Z
THURSDAY EVENING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD AT LEAST
APPROACH MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OF 30+KT OF OVERALL SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS WELL BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS WORTHY OF INCLUSION. AS
FOR SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING
THE DAY (GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20KT)...BEFORE DECREASING A BIT
DURING THE EVENING BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLBF 270548
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1148 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER
NUNAVUT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED OVER KENTUCKY AND NRN MO. STRONG
WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS AS A 90+KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN MT INTO SWRN KS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NRN MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW INTO THE OZARKS AND TX PANHANDLE. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
HAS BACKED TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AND
WYOMING. LOOKING AT THE H7 THERMAL FIELD...A DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
H7 FRONT...COUPLED WITH THE H5 JET STREAK...HAS LED TO LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF MID AFTERNOON RANGED FROM 25 AT ONEILL
TO 34 AT NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS SHOWN BY THE HIRES NEAR TERM MODELS TO
BECOME LESS DEFINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE LOSES
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...THUS THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED
IN THAT DIRECTION WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS EVENING...THUS THE REASON OF EXTENDING A SNOW MENTION
INTO THIS EVENING.  ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION...WHICH AT TIMES
REACHES INTO THE DGZ...WHATS MISSING IS DEEP LIFT...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF AT LEAST WEAK OMEGA.  PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH --SN...WILL DO THE SAME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LESS MIXING IN MIND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE EAST...WITH LOWER 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.

TOMORROW...A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST BY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF TO THE EAST AND A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST.  SOUTHERLY...TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT WARMER H85 TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH OUR FAR WESTERN &
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TOPPING 10C BY 00Z FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE.  THERE WILL REMAIN A SHARP GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES AS ONE HEADS EAST.  ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S SHOULD PREVAIL...TO THE EAST OF
THERE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE MID 30S...OWING THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT STRATUS AND
COOLER AIR RECYCLED FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH.  YOUR THANKSGIVING
FORECAST IS DRY AS THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SHOWN TO DRY ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID RANGE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE
MID RANGE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS AROUND 25 FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST...WENT WITH SOME LOWER 20S IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE DAKOTAS...ENDING UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SUNDAY. THE EURO SOLN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BEING ALONG
THE SD/NE BORDER BY THIS TIME. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND HAVE
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD DURING 00Z SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WITH THE APPG FRONT AND H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS SAT AFTN...HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S AND MAY
APPROACH 70 IN THE SOUTHWEST. RECORDS FOR SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID
70S FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL...AND 71 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 69 FOR
BROKEN BOW RESPECTIVELY.

LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC
FROPA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NRN MINNESOTA. H85 TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM -13C IN THE NORTH TO -7C IN THE SOUTH. WITH DECENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MIXING HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MONDAY...WITH A BETTER
WARMUP EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE THANKS TO SPLIT
FLOW. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE TROUGH IN NRN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
ATTM...WILL LEAVE THE PERIOD DRY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FLURRIES AND MARGINAL CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE VISUAL RANGE TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME UNLIMITED LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 270548
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1148 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER
NUNAVUT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED OVER KENTUCKY AND NRN MO. STRONG
WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS AS A 90+KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN MT INTO SWRN KS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NRN MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW INTO THE OZARKS AND TX PANHANDLE. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
HAS BACKED TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AND
WYOMING. LOOKING AT THE H7 THERMAL FIELD...A DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
H7 FRONT...COUPLED WITH THE H5 JET STREAK...HAS LED TO LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF MID AFTERNOON RANGED FROM 25 AT ONEILL
TO 34 AT NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS SHOWN BY THE HIRES NEAR TERM MODELS TO
BECOME LESS DEFINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE LOSES
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...THUS THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED
IN THAT DIRECTION WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS EVENING...THUS THE REASON OF EXTENDING A SNOW MENTION
INTO THIS EVENING.  ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION...WHICH AT TIMES
REACHES INTO THE DGZ...WHATS MISSING IS DEEP LIFT...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF AT LEAST WEAK OMEGA.  PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH --SN...WILL DO THE SAME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LESS MIXING IN MIND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE EAST...WITH LOWER 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.

TOMORROW...A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST BY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF TO THE EAST AND A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST.  SOUTHERLY...TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT WARMER H85 TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH OUR FAR WESTERN &
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TOPPING 10C BY 00Z FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE.  THERE WILL REMAIN A SHARP GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES AS ONE HEADS EAST.  ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S SHOULD PREVAIL...TO THE EAST OF
THERE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE MID 30S...OWING THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT STRATUS AND
COOLER AIR RECYCLED FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH.  YOUR THANKSGIVING
FORECAST IS DRY AS THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SHOWN TO DRY ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID RANGE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE
MID RANGE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS AROUND 25 FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST...WENT WITH SOME LOWER 20S IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE DAKOTAS...ENDING UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SUNDAY. THE EURO SOLN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BEING ALONG
THE SD/NE BORDER BY THIS TIME. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND HAVE
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD DURING 00Z SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WITH THE APPG FRONT AND H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS SAT AFTN...HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S AND MAY
APPROACH 70 IN THE SOUTHWEST. RECORDS FOR SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID
70S FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL...AND 71 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 69 FOR
BROKEN BOW RESPECTIVELY.

LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC
FROPA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NRN MINNESOTA. H85 TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM -13C IN THE NORTH TO -7C IN THE SOUTH. WITH DECENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MIXING HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MONDAY...WITH A BETTER
WARMUP EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE THANKS TO SPLIT
FLOW. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE TROUGH IN NRN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
ATTM...WILL LEAVE THE PERIOD DRY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FLURRIES AND MARGINAL CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE VISUAL RANGE TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME UNLIMITED LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KOAX 270522
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1122 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

REGIONAL OBS/SATL PIX SHOWING THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MVFR CIGS
HAVE DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER ERN NEB OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. KOFK AND KOMA THOUGH ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CIGS.
GIVEN TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THOUGH...EXPECT KOFK AND KOMA
TO IMPROVE TO VFR SOMETIME TWD 10Z THIS MORNING. VFR THEN
REMAINDER 0F FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270522
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1122 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

REGIONAL OBS/SATL PIX SHOWING THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MVFR CIGS
HAVE DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER ERN NEB OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. KOFK AND KOMA THOUGH ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CIGS.
GIVEN TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THOUGH...EXPECT KOFK AND KOMA
TO IMPROVE TO VFR SOMETIME TWD 10Z THIS MORNING. VFR THEN
REMAINDER 0F FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270522
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1122 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

REGIONAL OBS/SATL PIX SHOWING THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MVFR CIGS
HAVE DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER ERN NEB OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. KOFK AND KOMA THOUGH ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CIGS.
GIVEN TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THOUGH...EXPECT KOFK AND KOMA
TO IMPROVE TO VFR SOMETIME TWD 10Z THIS MORNING. VFR THEN
REMAINDER 0F FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 270522
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1122 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

REGIONAL OBS/SATL PIX SHOWING THAT FOR THE MOST PART...MVFR CIGS
HAVE DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER ERN NEB OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. KOFK AND KOMA THOUGH ARE STILL REPORTING MVFR CIGS.
GIVEN TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THOUGH...EXPECT KOFK AND KOMA
TO IMPROVE TO VFR SOMETIME TWD 10Z THIS MORNING. VFR THEN
REMAINDER 0F FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KLBF 262357
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
557 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER
NUNAVUT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED OVER KENTUCKY AND NRN MO. STRONG
WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS AS A 90+KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN MT INTO SWRN KS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NRN MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW INTO THE OZARKS AND TX PANHANDLE. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
HAS BACKED TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AND
WYOMING. LOOKING AT THE H7 THERMAL FIELD...A DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
H7 FRONT...COUPLED WITH THE H5 JET STREAK...HAS LED TO LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF MID AFTERNOON RANGED FROM 25 AT ONEILL
TO 34 AT NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS SHOWN BY THE HIRES NEAR TERM MODELS TO
BECOME LESS DEFINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE LOSES
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...THUS THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED
IN THAT DIRECTION WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS EVENING...THUS THE REASON OF EXTENDING A SNOW MENTION
INTO THIS EVENING.  ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION...WHICH AT TIMES
REACHES INTO THE DGZ...WHATS MISSING IS DEEP LIFT...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF AT LEAST WEAK OMEGA.  PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH --SN...WILL DO THE SAME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LESS MIXING IN MIND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE EAST...WITH LOWER 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.

TOMORROW...A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST BY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF TO THE EAST AND A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST.  SOUTHERLY...TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT WARMER H85 TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH OUR FAR WESTERN &
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TOPPING 10C BY 00Z FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE.  THERE WILL REMAIN A SHARP GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES AS ONE HEADS EAST.  ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S SHOULD PREVAIL...TO THE EAST OF
THERE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE MID 30S...OWING THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT STRATUS AND
COOLER AIR RECYCLED FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH.  YOUR THANKSGIVING
FORECAST IS DRY AS THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SHOWN TO DRY ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID RANGE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE
MID RANGE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS AROUND 25 FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST...WENT WITH SOME LOWER 20S IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE DAKOTAS...ENDING UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SUNDAY. THE EURO SOLN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BEING ALONG
THE SD/NE BORDER BY THIS TIME. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND HAVE
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD DURING 00Z SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WITH THE APPG FRONT AND H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS SAT AFTN...HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S AND MAY
APPROACH 70 IN THE SOUTHWEST. RECORDS FOR SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID
70S FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL...AND 71 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 69 FOR
BROKEN BOW RESPECTIVELY.

LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC
FROPA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NRN MINNESOTA. H85 TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM -13C IN THE NORTH TO -7C IN THE SOUTH. WITH DECENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MIXING HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MONDAY...WITH A BETTER
WARMUP EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE THANKS TO SPLIT
FLOW. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE TROUGH IN NRN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
ATTM...WILL LEAVE THE PERIOD DRY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE CONCERN TO AVIATION WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CEILING
WITH THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE 1000-3000 FEET AGL WITH VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE AS LOW AS 1SM BUT GENERALLY 3-5SM. THE SNOW IN THOSE
AREAS WILL DISSIPATE BY 08Z WITH IMPROVED CEILING AND VISIBILITY
FLOOLOWING. THE SNOW IS NOT LIKELY TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT VTN OR LBF. CEILINGS SOUTH AND
WEST OF KIEN-LXN WILL BE 7000-12000 FEET WITH VISIBILITY AT OR
ABOVE 6SM. IN THE REST OF THE AREA...UNLIMITED CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 262357
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
557 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER
NUNAVUT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED OVER KENTUCKY AND NRN MO. STRONG
WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS AS A 90+KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN MT INTO SWRN KS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NRN MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW INTO THE OZARKS AND TX PANHANDLE. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
HAS BACKED TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AND
WYOMING. LOOKING AT THE H7 THERMAL FIELD...A DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
H7 FRONT...COUPLED WITH THE H5 JET STREAK...HAS LED TO LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF MID AFTERNOON RANGED FROM 25 AT ONEILL
TO 34 AT NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS SHOWN BY THE HIRES NEAR TERM MODELS TO
BECOME LESS DEFINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE LOSES
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...THUS THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED
IN THAT DIRECTION WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS EVENING...THUS THE REASON OF EXTENDING A SNOW MENTION
INTO THIS EVENING.  ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION...WHICH AT TIMES
REACHES INTO THE DGZ...WHATS MISSING IS DEEP LIFT...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF AT LEAST WEAK OMEGA.  PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH --SN...WILL DO THE SAME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LESS MIXING IN MIND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE EAST...WITH LOWER 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.

TOMORROW...A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST BY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF TO THE EAST AND A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST.  SOUTHERLY...TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT WARMER H85 TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH OUR FAR WESTERN &
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TOPPING 10C BY 00Z FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE.  THERE WILL REMAIN A SHARP GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES AS ONE HEADS EAST.  ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S SHOULD PREVAIL...TO THE EAST OF
THERE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE MID 30S...OWING THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT STRATUS AND
COOLER AIR RECYCLED FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH.  YOUR THANKSGIVING
FORECAST IS DRY AS THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SHOWN TO DRY ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID RANGE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE
MID RANGE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS AROUND 25 FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST...WENT WITH SOME LOWER 20S IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE DAKOTAS...ENDING UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SUNDAY. THE EURO SOLN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BEING ALONG
THE SD/NE BORDER BY THIS TIME. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND HAVE
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD DURING 00Z SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WITH THE APPG FRONT AND H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS SAT AFTN...HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S AND MAY
APPROACH 70 IN THE SOUTHWEST. RECORDS FOR SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID
70S FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL...AND 71 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 69 FOR
BROKEN BOW RESPECTIVELY.

LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC
FROPA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NRN MINNESOTA. H85 TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM -13C IN THE NORTH TO -7C IN THE SOUTH. WITH DECENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MIXING HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MONDAY...WITH A BETTER
WARMUP EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE THANKS TO SPLIT
FLOW. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE TROUGH IN NRN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
ATTM...WILL LEAVE THE PERIOD DRY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE CONCERN TO AVIATION WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CEILING
WITH THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE 1000-3000 FEET AGL WITH VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE AS LOW AS 1SM BUT GENERALLY 3-5SM. THE SNOW IN THOSE
AREAS WILL DISSIPATE BY 08Z WITH IMPROVED CEILING AND VISIBILITY
FLOOLOWING. THE SNOW IS NOT LIKELY TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT VTN OR LBF. CEILINGS SOUTH AND
WEST OF KIEN-LXN WILL BE 7000-12000 FEET WITH VISIBILITY AT OR
ABOVE 6SM. IN THE REST OF THE AREA...UNLIMITED CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 262357
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
557 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER
NUNAVUT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED OVER KENTUCKY AND NRN MO. STRONG
WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS AS A 90+KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN MT INTO SWRN KS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NRN MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW INTO THE OZARKS AND TX PANHANDLE. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
HAS BACKED TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AND
WYOMING. LOOKING AT THE H7 THERMAL FIELD...A DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
H7 FRONT...COUPLED WITH THE H5 JET STREAK...HAS LED TO LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF MID AFTERNOON RANGED FROM 25 AT ONEILL
TO 34 AT NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS SHOWN BY THE HIRES NEAR TERM MODELS TO
BECOME LESS DEFINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE LOSES
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...THUS THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED
IN THAT DIRECTION WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS EVENING...THUS THE REASON OF EXTENDING A SNOW MENTION
INTO THIS EVENING.  ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION...WHICH AT TIMES
REACHES INTO THE DGZ...WHATS MISSING IS DEEP LIFT...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF AT LEAST WEAK OMEGA.  PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH --SN...WILL DO THE SAME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LESS MIXING IN MIND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE EAST...WITH LOWER 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.

TOMORROW...A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST BY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF TO THE EAST AND A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST.  SOUTHERLY...TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT WARMER H85 TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH OUR FAR WESTERN &
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TOPPING 10C BY 00Z FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE.  THERE WILL REMAIN A SHARP GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES AS ONE HEADS EAST.  ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S SHOULD PREVAIL...TO THE EAST OF
THERE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE MID 30S...OWING THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT STRATUS AND
COOLER AIR RECYCLED FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH.  YOUR THANKSGIVING
FORECAST IS DRY AS THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SHOWN TO DRY ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID RANGE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE
MID RANGE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS AROUND 25 FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST...WENT WITH SOME LOWER 20S IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE DAKOTAS...ENDING UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SUNDAY. THE EURO SOLN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BEING ALONG
THE SD/NE BORDER BY THIS TIME. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND HAVE
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD DURING 00Z SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WITH THE APPG FRONT AND H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS SAT AFTN...HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S AND MAY
APPROACH 70 IN THE SOUTHWEST. RECORDS FOR SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID
70S FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL...AND 71 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 69 FOR
BROKEN BOW RESPECTIVELY.

LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC
FROPA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NRN MINNESOTA. H85 TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM -13C IN THE NORTH TO -7C IN THE SOUTH. WITH DECENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MIXING HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MONDAY...WITH A BETTER
WARMUP EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE THANKS TO SPLIT
FLOW. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE TROUGH IN NRN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
ATTM...WILL LEAVE THE PERIOD DRY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE CONCERN TO AVIATION WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CEILING
WITH THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE 1000-3000 FEET AGL WITH VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE AS LOW AS 1SM BUT GENERALLY 3-5SM. THE SNOW IN THOSE
AREAS WILL DISSIPATE BY 08Z WITH IMPROVED CEILING AND VISIBILITY
FLOOLOWING. THE SNOW IS NOT LIKELY TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT VTN OR LBF. CEILINGS SOUTH AND
WEST OF KIEN-LXN WILL BE 7000-12000 FEET WITH VISIBILITY AT OR
ABOVE 6SM. IN THE REST OF THE AREA...UNLIMITED CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 262357
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
557 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER
NUNAVUT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED OVER KENTUCKY AND NRN MO. STRONG
WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS AS A 90+KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN MT INTO SWRN KS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NRN MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW INTO THE OZARKS AND TX PANHANDLE. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
HAS BACKED TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AND
WYOMING. LOOKING AT THE H7 THERMAL FIELD...A DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
H7 FRONT...COUPLED WITH THE H5 JET STREAK...HAS LED TO LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF MID AFTERNOON RANGED FROM 25 AT ONEILL
TO 34 AT NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS SHOWN BY THE HIRES NEAR TERM MODELS TO
BECOME LESS DEFINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE LOSES
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...THUS THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED
IN THAT DIRECTION WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS EVENING...THUS THE REASON OF EXTENDING A SNOW MENTION
INTO THIS EVENING.  ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION...WHICH AT TIMES
REACHES INTO THE DGZ...WHATS MISSING IS DEEP LIFT...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF AT LEAST WEAK OMEGA.  PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH --SN...WILL DO THE SAME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LESS MIXING IN MIND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE EAST...WITH LOWER 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.

TOMORROW...A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST BY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF TO THE EAST AND A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST.  SOUTHERLY...TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT WARMER H85 TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH OUR FAR WESTERN &
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TOPPING 10C BY 00Z FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE.  THERE WILL REMAIN A SHARP GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES AS ONE HEADS EAST.  ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S SHOULD PREVAIL...TO THE EAST OF
THERE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE MID 30S...OWING THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT STRATUS AND
COOLER AIR RECYCLED FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH.  YOUR THANKSGIVING
FORECAST IS DRY AS THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SHOWN TO DRY ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID RANGE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE
MID RANGE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS AROUND 25 FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST...WENT WITH SOME LOWER 20S IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE DAKOTAS...ENDING UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SUNDAY. THE EURO SOLN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BEING ALONG
THE SD/NE BORDER BY THIS TIME. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND HAVE
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD DURING 00Z SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WITH THE APPG FRONT AND H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS SAT AFTN...HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S AND MAY
APPROACH 70 IN THE SOUTHWEST. RECORDS FOR SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID
70S FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL...AND 71 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 69 FOR
BROKEN BOW RESPECTIVELY.

LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC
FROPA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NRN MINNESOTA. H85 TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM -13C IN THE NORTH TO -7C IN THE SOUTH. WITH DECENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MIXING HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MONDAY...WITH A BETTER
WARMUP EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE THANKS TO SPLIT
FLOW. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE TROUGH IN NRN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
ATTM...WILL LEAVE THE PERIOD DRY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE CONCERN TO AVIATION WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CEILING
WITH THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE 1000-3000 FEET AGL WITH VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE AS LOW AS 1SM BUT GENERALLY 3-5SM. THE SNOW IN THOSE
AREAS WILL DISSIPATE BY 08Z WITH IMPROVED CEILING AND VISIBILITY
FLOOLOWING. THE SNOW IS NOT LIKELY TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CEILING OR VISIBILITY AT VTN OR LBF. CEILINGS SOUTH AND
WEST OF KIEN-LXN WILL BE 7000-12000 FEET WITH VISIBILITY AT OR
ABOVE 6SM. IN THE REST OF THE AREA...UNLIMITED CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 262324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
524 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING SWD WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. LATEST OBS INDICATE MVFR CIGS PRETTY MUCH PREVAILING
ACROSS ERN NEB WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25KT. HOWEVER...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR ALONG WITH SUBSIDING WINDS SOMETIME
TWD 03Z THIS EVENING. VFR THEN REST OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KOAX 262324
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
524 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING SWD WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. LATEST OBS INDICATE MVFR CIGS PRETTY MUCH PREVAILING
ACROSS ERN NEB WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25KT. HOWEVER...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR ALONG WITH SUBSIDING WINDS SOMETIME
TWD 03Z THIS EVENING. VFR THEN REST OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KGID 262308
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
508 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.  AN UPPER JET WAS CROSSING THE PLAINS AND A FEW FLURRIES
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NEB.  RADAR MOSAIC IS PICKING UP ON THE CLOUD
COVER BUT WITH TEMP/DP SPREADS AROUND TEN DEGREES...JUST NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FOR PCPN AND HAVE LEFT THINGS DRY ATTM.

A COLD 1038MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE
IN THE TEENS.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE COLD CONDITIONS OF TODAY AND A NICE
WARMUP COMMENCING FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT
WHILE WARMER AIR/SUBTLE RIDGING EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH OUR WESTERN ZONES REACHING THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 FOR HIGHS...WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL LOOKING AT THESE TWO DAYS
EASILY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FRIDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE NERN CONUS AND
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BUT IT DOES GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW
REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NO DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD
THE SOLUTION THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS STARTING OUT THURS EVENING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER TEENS ON SATURDAY. SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE W/SWRLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THANKS TO A
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO
THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A
COUPLE REAL NICE DAYS. FRIDAYS HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SATURDAY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S
CWA-WIDE. DO HAVE ONE CONCERN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A COUPLE OF 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET A TOUCH FURTHER
SOUTH ON SATURDAY /NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER/ THAN ON FRIDAY. ISSUE
WITH THIS IS HOW MUCH CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND...ESP ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A
BIT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS TO CONSIDER.

THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS HAD BEEN POINTING TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL
AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT SAT/SUN WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NRN
CONUS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS TODAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL LINGER AROUND AS
WE GET INTO MONDAY AS WELL...BUT AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY...WE SEE A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THAT AIRMASS SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SUN/MON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT IN THE 20S/30S...WITH TUES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S/40S. THE
FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUES REMAINS DRY...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY /DAY 7/ IS LOW DUE TO
INCREASING SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS SOLUTIONS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME KIND OF DISTURBANCE OVER THE WRN CONUS...THE
GFS IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND VS THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
OFF THE COAST. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...MOVING IT THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH
INCREASING LIFT RESULTING IN QPF OVER THE AREA.  THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW CLOSED OFF AND THUS IS SLOWER WITH IS MOVEMENT...WHICH ENDS UP
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA AND STAYING DRY. AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEPT
DRY...AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS WE
WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA. WIND IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND WILL EVENTUALLY
BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH AS THE NIGHT/THURSDAY. SKY COVER SHOULD
SCATTER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 262308
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
508 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.  AN UPPER JET WAS CROSSING THE PLAINS AND A FEW FLURRIES
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NEB.  RADAR MOSAIC IS PICKING UP ON THE CLOUD
COVER BUT WITH TEMP/DP SPREADS AROUND TEN DEGREES...JUST NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FOR PCPN AND HAVE LEFT THINGS DRY ATTM.

A COLD 1038MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE
IN THE TEENS.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE COLD CONDITIONS OF TODAY AND A NICE
WARMUP COMMENCING FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT
WHILE WARMER AIR/SUBTLE RIDGING EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH OUR WESTERN ZONES REACHING THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 FOR HIGHS...WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL LOOKING AT THESE TWO DAYS
EASILY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FRIDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE NERN CONUS AND
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BUT IT DOES GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW
REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NO DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD
THE SOLUTION THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS STARTING OUT THURS EVENING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER TEENS ON SATURDAY. SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE W/SWRLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THANKS TO A
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO
THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A
COUPLE REAL NICE DAYS. FRIDAYS HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SATURDAY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S
CWA-WIDE. DO HAVE ONE CONCERN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A COUPLE OF 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET A TOUCH FURTHER
SOUTH ON SATURDAY /NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER/ THAN ON FRIDAY. ISSUE
WITH THIS IS HOW MUCH CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND...ESP ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A
BIT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS TO CONSIDER.

THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS HAD BEEN POINTING TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL
AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT SAT/SUN WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NRN
CONUS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS TODAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL LINGER AROUND AS
WE GET INTO MONDAY AS WELL...BUT AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY...WE SEE A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THAT AIRMASS SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SUN/MON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT IN THE 20S/30S...WITH TUES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S/40S. THE
FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUES REMAINS DRY...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY /DAY 7/ IS LOW DUE TO
INCREASING SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS SOLUTIONS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME KIND OF DISTURBANCE OVER THE WRN CONUS...THE
GFS IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND VS THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
OFF THE COAST. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...MOVING IT THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH
INCREASING LIFT RESULTING IN QPF OVER THE AREA.  THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW CLOSED OFF AND THUS IS SLOWER WITH IS MOVEMENT...WHICH ENDS UP
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA AND STAYING DRY. AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEPT
DRY...AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS WE
WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA. WIND IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND WILL EVENTUALLY
BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH AS THE NIGHT/THURSDAY. SKY COVER SHOULD
SCATTER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 262146
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
346 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.  AN UPPER JET WAS CROSSING THE PLAINS AND A FEW FLURRIES
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NEB.  RADAR MOSAIC IS PICKING UP ON THE CLOUD
COVER BUT WITH TEMP/DP SPREADS AROUND TEN DEGREES...JUST NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FOR PCPN AND HAVE LEFT THINGS DRY ATTM.

A COLD 1038MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE
IN THE TEENS.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE COLD CONDITIONS OF TODAY AND A NICE
WARMUP COMMENCING FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT
WHILE WARMER AIR/SUBTLE RIDGING EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH OUR WESTERN ZONES REACHING THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 FOR HIGHS...WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL LOOKING AT THESE TWO DAYS
EASILY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FRIDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE NERN CONUS AND
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BUT IT DOES GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW
REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NO DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD
THE SOLUTION THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS STARTING OUT THURS EVENING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER TEENS ON SATURDAY. SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE W/SWRLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THANKS TO A
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO
THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A
COUPLE REAL NICE DAYS. FRIDAYS HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SATURDAY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S
CWA-WIDE. DO HAVE ONE CONCERN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A COUPLE OF 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET A TOUCH FURTHER
SOUTH ON SATURDAY /NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER/ THAN ON FRIDAY. ISSUE
WITH THIS IS HOW MUCH CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND...ESP ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A
BIT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS TO CONSIDER.

THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS HAD BEEN POINTING TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL
AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT SAT/SUN WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NRN
CONUS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS TODAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL LINGER AROUND AS
WE GET INTO MONDAY AS WELL...BUT AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY...WE SEE A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THAT AIRMASS SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SUN/MON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT IN THE 20S/30S...WITH TUES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S/40S. THE
FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUES REMAINS DRY...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY /DAY 7/ IS LOW DUE TO
INCREASING SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS SOLUTIONS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME KIND OF DISTURBANCE OVER THE WRN CONUS...THE
GFS IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND VS THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
OFF THE COAST. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...MOVING IT THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH
INCREASING LIFT RESULTING IN QPF OVER THE AREA.  THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW CLOSED OFF AND THUS IS SLOWER WITH IS MOVEMENT...WHICH ENDS UP
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA AND STAYING DRY. AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEPT
DRY...AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT UNDER
INFLUENCE OF SFC RIDGE...THEN WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEASTERLY
ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST. CIG HEIGHTS WILL
IMPROVE/RAISE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KGID 262146
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
346 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.  AN UPPER JET WAS CROSSING THE PLAINS AND A FEW FLURRIES
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NEB.  RADAR MOSAIC IS PICKING UP ON THE CLOUD
COVER BUT WITH TEMP/DP SPREADS AROUND TEN DEGREES...JUST NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FOR PCPN AND HAVE LEFT THINGS DRY ATTM.

A COLD 1038MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE
IN THE TEENS.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE COLD CONDITIONS OF TODAY AND A NICE
WARMUP COMMENCING FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT
WHILE WARMER AIR/SUBTLE RIDGING EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH OUR WESTERN ZONES REACHING THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 FOR HIGHS...WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL LOOKING AT THESE TWO DAYS
EASILY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FRIDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE NERN CONUS AND
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BUT IT DOES GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW
REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NO DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD
THE SOLUTION THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS STARTING OUT THURS EVENING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER TEENS ON SATURDAY. SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE W/SWRLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THANKS TO A
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO
THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A
COUPLE REAL NICE DAYS. FRIDAYS HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SATURDAY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S
CWA-WIDE. DO HAVE ONE CONCERN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A COUPLE OF 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET A TOUCH FURTHER
SOUTH ON SATURDAY /NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER/ THAN ON FRIDAY. ISSUE
WITH THIS IS HOW MUCH CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND...ESP ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A
BIT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS TO CONSIDER.

THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS HAD BEEN POINTING TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL
AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT SAT/SUN WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NRN
CONUS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS TODAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL LINGER AROUND AS
WE GET INTO MONDAY AS WELL...BUT AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY...WE SEE A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THAT AIRMASS SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SUN/MON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT IN THE 20S/30S...WITH TUES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S/40S. THE
FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUES REMAINS DRY...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY /DAY 7/ IS LOW DUE TO
INCREASING SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS SOLUTIONS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME KIND OF DISTURBANCE OVER THE WRN CONUS...THE
GFS IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND VS THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
OFF THE COAST. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...MOVING IT THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH
INCREASING LIFT RESULTING IN QPF OVER THE AREA.  THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW CLOSED OFF AND THUS IS SLOWER WITH IS MOVEMENT...WHICH ENDS UP
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA AND STAYING DRY. AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEPT
DRY...AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT UNDER
INFLUENCE OF SFC RIDGE...THEN WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEASTERLY
ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST. CIG HEIGHTS WILL
IMPROVE/RAISE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 262118
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER
NUNAVUT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED OVER KENTUCKY AND NRN MO. STRONG
WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS AS A 90+KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN MT INTO SWRN KS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NRN MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW INTO THE OZARKS AND TX PANHANDLE. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
HAS BACKED TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AND
WYOMING. LOOKING AT THE H7 THERMAL FIELD...A DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
H7 FRONT...COUPLED WITH THE H5 JET STREAK...HAS LED TO LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF MID AFTERNOON RANGED FROM 25 AT ONEILL
TO 34 AT NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS SHOWN BY THE HIRES NEAR TERM MODELS TO
BECOME LESS DEFINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE LOSES
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...THUS THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED
IN THAT DIRECTION WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS EVENING...THUS THE REASON OF EXTENDING A SNOW MENTION
INTO THIS EVENING.  ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION...WHICH AT TIMES
REACHES INTO THE DGZ...WHATS MISSING IS DEEP LIFT...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF AT LEAST WEAK OMEGA.  PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH --SN...WILL DO THE SAME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LESS MIXING IN MIND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE EAST...WITH LOWER 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.

TOMORROW...A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST BY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF TO THE EAST AND A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST.  SOUTHERLY...TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT WARMER H85 TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH OUR FAR WESTERN &
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TOPPING 10C BY 00Z FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE.  THERE WILL REMAIN A SHARP GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES AS ONE HEADS EAST.  ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S SHOULD PREVAIL...TO THE EAST OF
THERE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE MID 30S...OWING THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT STRATUS AND
COOLER AIR RECYCLED FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH.  YOUR THANKSGIVING
FORECAST IS DRY AS THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SHOWN TO DRY ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID RANGE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE
MID RANGE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS AROUND 25 FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST...WENT WITH SOME LOWER 20S IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE DAKOTAS...ENDING UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SUNDAY. THE EURO SOLN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BEING ALONG
THE SD/NE BORDER BY THIS TIME. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND HAVE
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD DURING 00Z SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WITH THE APPG FRONT AND H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS SAT AFTN...HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S AND MAY
APPROACH 70 IN THE SOUTHWEST. RECORDS FOR SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID
70S FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL...AND 71 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 69 FOR
BROKEN BOW RESPECTIVELY.

LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC
FROPA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NRN MINNESOTA. H85 TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM -13C IN THE NORTH TO -7C IN THE SOUTH. WITH DECENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MIXING HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MONDAY...WITH A BETTER
WARMUP EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE THANKS TO SPLIT
FLOW. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE TROUGH IN NRN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
ATTM...WILL LEAVE THE PERIOD DRY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AT KLBF.  SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE VFR BY 20Z.  AT KVTN...SKIES WILL REMAIN
OVERCAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...IN FACT MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE INDICATES KVTN REMAINING AT MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.  WILL BRIEFLY INCLUDE A SCT030 CEILING THIS
AFTERNOON AT KVTN...BUT THEN TREND SKIES BELOW MVFR THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE -SN IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE...IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MINIMAL AS
VISBY REDUCTIONS WILL ONLY FALL BRIEFLY BLO 6SM...THIS SNOW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT KLBF OR KVTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...KECK/JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 262118
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER
NUNAVUT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED OVER KENTUCKY AND NRN MO. STRONG
WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS AS A 90+KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN MT INTO SWRN KS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NRN MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW INTO THE OZARKS AND TX PANHANDLE. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
HAS BACKED TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AND
WYOMING. LOOKING AT THE H7 THERMAL FIELD...A DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
H7 FRONT...COUPLED WITH THE H5 JET STREAK...HAS LED TO LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF MID AFTERNOON RANGED FROM 25 AT ONEILL
TO 34 AT NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS SHOWN BY THE HIRES NEAR TERM MODELS TO
BECOME LESS DEFINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE LOSES
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...THUS THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED
IN THAT DIRECTION WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS EVENING...THUS THE REASON OF EXTENDING A SNOW MENTION
INTO THIS EVENING.  ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION...WHICH AT TIMES
REACHES INTO THE DGZ...WHATS MISSING IS DEEP LIFT...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF AT LEAST WEAK OMEGA.  PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH --SN...WILL DO THE SAME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LESS MIXING IN MIND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE EAST...WITH LOWER 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.

TOMORROW...A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST BY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF TO THE EAST AND A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST.  SOUTHERLY...TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT WARMER H85 TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH OUR FAR WESTERN &
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TOPPING 10C BY 00Z FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE.  THERE WILL REMAIN A SHARP GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES AS ONE HEADS EAST.  ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S SHOULD PREVAIL...TO THE EAST OF
THERE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE MID 30S...OWING THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT STRATUS AND
COOLER AIR RECYCLED FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH.  YOUR THANKSGIVING
FORECAST IS DRY AS THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SHOWN TO DRY ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID RANGE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE
MID RANGE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS AROUND 25 FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST...WENT WITH SOME LOWER 20S IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE DAKOTAS...ENDING UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SUNDAY. THE EURO SOLN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BEING ALONG
THE SD/NE BORDER BY THIS TIME. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND HAVE
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD DURING 00Z SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WITH THE APPG FRONT AND H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS SAT AFTN...HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S AND MAY
APPROACH 70 IN THE SOUTHWEST. RECORDS FOR SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID
70S FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL...AND 71 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 69 FOR
BROKEN BOW RESPECTIVELY.

LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC
FROPA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NRN MINNESOTA. H85 TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM -13C IN THE NORTH TO -7C IN THE SOUTH. WITH DECENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MIXING HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MONDAY...WITH A BETTER
WARMUP EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE THANKS TO SPLIT
FLOW. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE TROUGH IN NRN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
ATTM...WILL LEAVE THE PERIOD DRY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AT KLBF.  SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE VFR BY 20Z.  AT KVTN...SKIES WILL REMAIN
OVERCAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...IN FACT MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE INDICATES KVTN REMAINING AT MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.  WILL BRIEFLY INCLUDE A SCT030 CEILING THIS
AFTERNOON AT KVTN...BUT THEN TREND SKIES BELOW MVFR THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE -SN IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE...IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MINIMAL AS
VISBY REDUCTIONS WILL ONLY FALL BRIEFLY BLO 6SM...THIS SNOW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT KLBF OR KVTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...KECK/JACOBS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 262118
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER
NUNAVUT WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED OVER KENTUCKY AND NRN MO. STRONG
WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS AS A 90+KT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN MT INTO SWRN KS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NRN MO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE LOW INTO THE OZARKS AND TX PANHANDLE. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
HAS BACKED TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AND
WYOMING. LOOKING AT THE H7 THERMAL FIELD...A DECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
H7 FRONT...COUPLED WITH THE H5 JET STREAK...HAS LED TO LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF MID AFTERNOON RANGED FROM 25 AT ONEILL
TO 34 AT NORTH PLATTE AND OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS SHOWN BY THE HIRES NEAR TERM MODELS TO
BECOME LESS DEFINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE LOSES
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...THUS THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED
IN THAT DIRECTION WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS EVENING...THUS THE REASON OF EXTENDING A SNOW MENTION
INTO THIS EVENING.  ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION...WHICH AT TIMES
REACHES INTO THE DGZ...WHATS MISSING IS DEEP LIFT...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF AT LEAST WEAK OMEGA.  PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH --SN...WILL DO THE SAME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LESS MIXING IN MIND OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE EAST...WITH LOWER 20S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST.

TOMORROW...A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST BY ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF TO THE EAST AND A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST.  SOUTHERLY...TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT WARMER H85 TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH OUR FAR WESTERN &
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TOPPING 10C BY 00Z FRIDAY.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE.  THERE WILL REMAIN A SHARP GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES AS ONE HEADS EAST.  ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S SHOULD PREVAIL...TO THE EAST OF
THERE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE MID 30S...OWING THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT STRATUS AND
COOLER AIR RECYCLED FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH.  YOUR THANKSGIVING
FORECAST IS DRY AS THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SHOWN TO DRY ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID RANGE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IN THE
MID RANGE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH READINGS AROUND 25 FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST...WENT WITH SOME LOWER 20S IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE DAKOTAS...ENDING UP SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
SUNDAY. THE EURO SOLN IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT BEING ALONG
THE SD/NE BORDER BY THIS TIME. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND HAVE
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SD DURING 00Z SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS...THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
PEAK HEATING. WITH THE APPG FRONT AND H85 TEMPS REACHING THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS SAT AFTN...HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S AND MAY
APPROACH 70 IN THE SOUTHWEST. RECORDS FOR SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID
70S FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL...AND 71 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 69 FOR
BROKEN BOW RESPECTIVELY.

LONG RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC
FROPA WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA AND NRN MINNESOTA. H85 TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM -13C IN THE NORTH TO -7C IN THE SOUTH. WITH DECENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND MIXING HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME MONDAY...WITH A BETTER
WARMUP EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES MORE OF A CHALLENGE THANKS TO SPLIT
FLOW. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE TROUGH IN NRN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS
ATTM...WILL LEAVE THE PERIOD DRY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AT KLBF.  SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE VFR BY 20Z.  AT KVTN...SKIES WILL REMAIN
OVERCAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...IN FACT MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE INDICATES KVTN REMAINING AT MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.  WILL BRIEFLY INCLUDE A SCT030 CEILING THIS
AFTERNOON AT KVTN...BUT THEN TREND SKIES BELOW MVFR THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE -SN IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE...IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MINIMAL AS
VISBY REDUCTIONS WILL ONLY FALL BRIEFLY BLO 6SM...THIS SNOW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT KLBF OR KVTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...KECK/JACOBS






000
FXUS63 KOAX 262031
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
231 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
FLURRIES AT KOMA. THERE IS A PATCH OF VFR CONDITIONS MOVING
TOWARD KOFK.  DO INCLUDE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE FIRST...THEN
MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS BY
00Z AND UNDER 10KTS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 262031
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
231 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
FLURRIES AT KOMA. THERE IS A PATCH OF VFR CONDITIONS MOVING
TOWARD KOFK.  DO INCLUDE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE FIRST...THEN
MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS BY
00Z AND UNDER 10KTS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 262031
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
231 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
FLURRIES AT KOMA. THERE IS A PATCH OF VFR CONDITIONS MOVING
TOWARD KOFK.  DO INCLUDE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE FIRST...THEN
MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS BY
00Z AND UNDER 10KTS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 262031
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
231 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SHARP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW NEAR NERN MO/SERN IA VICINITY AT 19Z
CONTINUES EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DECREASE AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING SEWD ACROSS WRN ZONES UNDER A
STRONG UPPER JET AND WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BOOSTED SKY
COVER SOME ON THANKSGIVING. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO LOWS TONIGHT
AS COLD/DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OR
ARE REPLACED QUICKER BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS THESE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL. CLOUDS ON THANKSGIVING SHOULD REMAIN THICKEST THE LONGEST
NERN SECTIONS WHICH COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH 30S EXPECTED
SW AND WCNTRL ZONES WHERE AFTN SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPS WARM INTO THE +14-+18 DEGREE RANGE. MIXING
POSSIBLY NOT THE BEST WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY BUT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS PRETTY STRONG ON SATURDAY AND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW ECMWF HAS
SUGGESTED 60S POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE FA. MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WHERE COMBO OF LIGHTER WINDS MOST AREAS AND
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT WARM-UP. HOWEVER....BOOSTED
READINGS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY W/SW.  ALSO BASED ON MIXY
NATURE OF SWRLY WINDS SWRN ZONES YDA...BOOSTED WINDS A BIT BOTH
FRI BUT ESPECIALLY SAT AFTNS ACROSS SW SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDES THE POSSIBILITY OF BRINGING HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOME 30-40+
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY/S. ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME...FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT
MEASURABLE CHANCES SEEM PRETTY LOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COLD
AND DRY AS THE SLOWLY MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PLAINS. MEX GUIDANCE PROBABLY INFLUENCED ERRONEOUSLY BY
CLIMO AND THUS TOO WARM...AND IF TRENDS PERSIST...NUMBERS COULD
NEED LOWERING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING S ACROSS NRN U.S. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
PERIOD.

HOWEVER...BY DAY 7 CHANGES TAKE SHAPE WITH GFS BRINGING SOME WEST
COAST ENERGY/MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS WHILE ECMWF WEAKENED
THE ENERGY WRINGING THE MOISTURE OUT IN THE PROCESS. INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SERN ZONES AT THIS JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
FLURRIES AT KOMA. THERE IS A PATCH OF VFR CONDITIONS MOVING
TOWARD KOFK.  DO INCLUDE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE FIRST...THEN
MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS BY
00Z AND UNDER 10KTS AFTER 00Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261755
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1155 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID MORNING UPDATE TO TWEAK WINDS/LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES/CLOUDS ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWEST
WINDS. DID INCLUDE A WINDS ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY WHEN
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA TO
QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH STRONG
WINDS...LIGHT RAIN AND THEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
FLURRIES AT KOMA. THERE IS A PATCH OF VFR CONDITIONS MOVING
TOWARD KOFK.  DO INCLUDE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE FIRST...THEN
MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS BY
00Z AND UNDER 10KTS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261755
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1155 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID MORNING UPDATE TO TWEAK WINDS/LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES/CLOUDS ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWEST
WINDS. DID INCLUDE A WINDS ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY WHEN
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA TO
QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH STRONG
WINDS...LIGHT RAIN AND THEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
FLURRIES AT KOMA. THERE IS A PATCH OF VFR CONDITIONS MOVING
TOWARD KOFK.  DO INCLUDE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE FIRST...THEN
MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 00Z-04Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS BY
00Z AND UNDER 10KTS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



000
FXUS63 KGID 261708
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1108 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ODX REPORTED A G38 KTS ABOUT 30 MIN AGO. BBW 39 KTS. SO SUSTAINED
WINDS AND GUSTS WERE NUDGED A LITTLE HIGHER THRU 16Z.

TEMPS CONT TO RESIST FALLING DESPITE MODEL INSISTENCE. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP CURVES THRU MIDDAY. BELIEVE TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY CONT TO SLOWLY DROP PAST SUNRISE AND THRU MID-MORNING.

RADAR SHOWS THE POCKETS OF FLURRIES HAVE MOVED INTO THE I-80
CORRIDOR FROM E OF KEARNEY. WE HAVE SMALL FLURRIES HERE AT THE
OFFICE AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ORD WAS REPORTING FLURRIES AT 4 AM WITHIN THE INTENSIFYING CAA/
INSTABILITY. SO SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST TO ACCT FOR THIS.
ALSO PUT THE RADAR IN VCP31 TO ATTEMPT TO PICK UP THE FLURRIES A
LITTLE BETTER. UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS VARIABLE CLOUDS
COMPLICATE OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY COLD DAY ESPECIALLY N OF HWY 6
WHERE TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S...

ALOFT: THE LONGWAVES WERE COMPRISED OF AN ERN USA TROF AND A W
COAST RIDGE. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH A BROAD RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WRN USA. THIS MEANS
NW FLOW AND SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES HERE ON THE PLAINS.

SURFACE: THE CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL DEPART THE REGION TO THE SE TODAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL SLIDE SE IN ITS WAKE AND SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ITS
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

TODAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF CLOUD COVER
CRESTING THE RIDGE AND HEADING SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.
THE BIGGEST COMPLICATION IN THIS FCST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TODAY. BELIEVE THE DAY WILL AVERAGE OUT M/CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL
BE TIMES WHEN SOME AREAS TURN P/CLOUDY AND TEMPORARILY SEE A
LITTLE EXTRA SUN.

WIND: THE GREATEST PRES RISES AND PRES GRADIENT WILL MOVE THRU IN
THE 6AM-12PM TIME FRAME. THE LOW-LVL WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONGEST
AT 12Z AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DRIFT E. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/HRRR SHOW INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPANSION WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING/DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF 35-40 KTS
FROM 1500 FT 12Z-15Z. SO BOTTOM LINE IS WINDIEST PART OF THE DAY
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 10 AM.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
HOW MILD TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVERNIGHT /ABOVE FRZG/ AND THAT MOS
OFFERS HIGHS COLDER THAN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...IT
SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...EVEN
AFTER THE BURST OF CAA IS OVER THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT FCST TO BE
ALL THAT COLD ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO AVERAGE AROUND -5C.
CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THE BIGGEST FACTOR.

TONIGHT: VARIABLE CLOUDS BUT IT PROBABLY AVERAGES OUT M/CLOUDY
AGAIN. LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS /PARTICULARLY THE WRF WITH THE NMM CORE/
BRING A STRIP OF VERY LIGHT NW-SE ORIENTED STRIP OF REFLECTIVITY
THRU S-CNTRL NEB IN THE 03Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO ITS
MICROPHYSICS SCHEME WHICH CAN BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AT TIMES. FCST
SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A SATURATED LAYER FROM 5-10K FT...BUT NO ICE IS
FCST IN-CLOUD. SO FCST REMAINS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF FLURRIES.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET EVEN FOR A BRIEF TIME. SO USED CONSENSUS OF MOS
WHICH WAS 5-6F COLDER THAN CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS. COULD GET
BURNED ON THIS IF BREAKS DON`T DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A
DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH STILL
COOL...AND THEN A VERY NICE WARM UP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THANKSGIVING...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GOOD AND FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE TEMPERATURE AT 850 MB SHOULD RISE FROM THE -4 TO -6C
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE BY
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING ON THE WARMER END
AND THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE COOLER END. THE SFC WIND WILL ALSO TURN
SOUTHERLY WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING...WHILE BEING LIGHT ENOUGH
TO NOT BE OVERLY UNCOMFORTABLE AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...IT WILL
STILL FEEL COOL OUT THERE FOR YOUR THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S EAST AND
NORTH OF THE TRI CITIES...TO AS WARM AS 50 DEGREES IN THE BEAVER
CITY NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NICEST DAYS OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD BE THESE TWO DAYS. THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH THE REAL COLD AIR LOCKED UP OVER CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING VERY NICE DAYS WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL LIKELY CLIMB FROM THE 2 TO 8C RANGE ON THURSDAY...INTO THE 11
TO 16C RANGE ON FRIDAY...AND TO AROUND 16 TO 18C BY SATURDAY
INDICATIVE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SFC
WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE WEST. ALL IN ALL
EXPECT TWO VERY NICE DAYS WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH DAYS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR FULL
DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS GOOD FORECAST AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE AROUND 40F. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FALL THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS. IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT IT WILL BE COLD. THANKFULLY THE COLD AIR SHOULD
ONLY LAST INTO MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BY TUESDAY. THE
IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ON SUNDAY IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SO IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE A NICE DAY.
SFC WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 40S TO PERHAPS EVEN 50 OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT UNDER
INFLUENCE OF SFC RIDGE...THEN WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEASTERLY
ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST. CIG HEIGHTS WILL
IMPROVE/RAISE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 261705
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1105 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN NEBR. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGER IN ERN AND NERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO. ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY RANGE IN MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED FLURRIES
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY
TODAY...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. TIME
SECTION IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY REVEAL INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
TODAY WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL BE LACKING
IS LIFT. ONLY POCKETS OF WEAK OMEGA WITHIN OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TIME SECTIONS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH H85 TEMPS HOLDING NEAR -7C AT ONL...AND
MODERATING TO -2C TO -4C ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S THIS MORNING AND RECOVER MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. HIGHS IN SWRN NEBR TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
LATEST MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. IN FACT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
MPH.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS SCATTERED FLURRIES MOVE EASTWARD IN
NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT AS WELL...AS H8 FRONT MOVES EAST TO NEAR A VTN AND BBW LINE BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS REFLECTED SOMEWHAT IN TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S WESTERN SANDHILLS TO THE MID TEENS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS LARGELY DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...THEN WITH COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK BUT THERE
BEGINS TO BE ENOUGH CHANGES COMING INTO PLAY BY THE WEEKEND TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THESE PERIODS. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE
HAS TO DO WITH THE EVOLVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS IS CURRENTLY THE FASTEST SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS WAVE
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS SEE
FURTHER DIVERGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH LED TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEING USED FOR THE FORECAST.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND DO EXPECT THIS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST DRY AND COOL
FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE BY AROUND
10C OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY ONLY MIXING TO AROUND 900MB
IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MEANWHILE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MIXING TO NEAR 850MB WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL AROUND 13C WOULD BRING HIGHS TO AROUND
60.

A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...FURTHER
INCREASING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SWITCHING THE WINDS TO FAVORED
WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION WHICH HAS A STRONGER 850 AND 700MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 12C. GETTING INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THESE READINGS INCREASE TO NEAR 19C. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
NEAR 800 MB. THE WESTERLY WINDS WON/T BE REAL STRONG AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN UNDER 15KTS SO THEY WON/T HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT...BUT JUST MIXING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD
GIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREE READINGS IN PLACES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING SO LOWS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT AS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED BACK TO A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH IS NOW AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON
THE TIMING OF THIS DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO WARM...DESPITE THE ECMWF
KEEPING 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13-18C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ANOTHER DAY OF 70 DEGREE POTENTIALS
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
BACK TO THE REGION...HOWEVER AGAIN THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF EXACTLY HOW COLD. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE COLDER
SOLUTION AND DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A RANGE OF -11 TO
-18 BY 00Z MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY IN
THE 20S AND 30S...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THOSE TO BE TOO WARM IF
THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT. THINK ALSO THAT IT WILL BE LIKELY
THAT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO MIXING OF THE MIXED LAYER AND
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN COMING
FORECASTS. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BE OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS
IN THE LOW TEENS BUT MAY NEED TO GO COLDER ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH
ENDS UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...AS SAID PREVIOUSLY...LARGE MODEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS WITH AT ONE POINT THE AREA BEING UNDER COMPLETE
OPPOSITE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE COLD AIRMASS FROM EARLY IN
THE WEEK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AT
LEAST WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...EVEN IF NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AT KLBF.  SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE VFR BY 20Z.  AT KVTN...SKIES WILL REMAIN
OVERCAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...IN FACT MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE INDICATES KVTN REMAINING AT MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.  WILL BRIEFLY INCLUDE A SCT030 CEILING THIS
AFTERNOON AT KVTN...BUT THEN TREND SKIES BELOW MVFR THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE -SN IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE...IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MINIMAL AS
VISBY REDUCTIONS WILL ONLY FALL BRIEFLY BLO 6SM...THIS SNOW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT KLBF OR KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...KECK/JACOBS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 261705
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1105 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN NEBR. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGER IN ERN AND NERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO. ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY RANGE IN MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED FLURRIES
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY
TODAY...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. TIME
SECTION IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY REVEAL INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
TODAY WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL BE LACKING
IS LIFT. ONLY POCKETS OF WEAK OMEGA WITHIN OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TIME SECTIONS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH H85 TEMPS HOLDING NEAR -7C AT ONL...AND
MODERATING TO -2C TO -4C ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S THIS MORNING AND RECOVER MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. HIGHS IN SWRN NEBR TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
LATEST MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. IN FACT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
MPH.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS SCATTERED FLURRIES MOVE EASTWARD IN
NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT AS WELL...AS H8 FRONT MOVES EAST TO NEAR A VTN AND BBW LINE BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS REFLECTED SOMEWHAT IN TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S WESTERN SANDHILLS TO THE MID TEENS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS LARGELY DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...THEN WITH COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK BUT THERE
BEGINS TO BE ENOUGH CHANGES COMING INTO PLAY BY THE WEEKEND TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THESE PERIODS. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE
HAS TO DO WITH THE EVOLVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS IS CURRENTLY THE FASTEST SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS WAVE
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS SEE
FURTHER DIVERGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH LED TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEING USED FOR THE FORECAST.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND DO EXPECT THIS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST DRY AND COOL
FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE BY AROUND
10C OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY ONLY MIXING TO AROUND 900MB
IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MEANWHILE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MIXING TO NEAR 850MB WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL AROUND 13C WOULD BRING HIGHS TO AROUND
60.

A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...FURTHER
INCREASING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SWITCHING THE WINDS TO FAVORED
WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION WHICH HAS A STRONGER 850 AND 700MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 12C. GETTING INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THESE READINGS INCREASE TO NEAR 19C. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
NEAR 800 MB. THE WESTERLY WINDS WON/T BE REAL STRONG AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN UNDER 15KTS SO THEY WON/T HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT...BUT JUST MIXING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD
GIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREE READINGS IN PLACES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING SO LOWS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT AS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED BACK TO A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH IS NOW AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON
THE TIMING OF THIS DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO WARM...DESPITE THE ECMWF
KEEPING 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13-18C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ANOTHER DAY OF 70 DEGREE POTENTIALS
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
BACK TO THE REGION...HOWEVER AGAIN THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF EXACTLY HOW COLD. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE COLDER
SOLUTION AND DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A RANGE OF -11 TO
-18 BY 00Z MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY IN
THE 20S AND 30S...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THOSE TO BE TOO WARM IF
THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT. THINK ALSO THAT IT WILL BE LIKELY
THAT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO MIXING OF THE MIXED LAYER AND
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN COMING
FORECASTS. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BE OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS
IN THE LOW TEENS BUT MAY NEED TO GO COLDER ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH
ENDS UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...AS SAID PREVIOUSLY...LARGE MODEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS WITH AT ONE POINT THE AREA BEING UNDER COMPLETE
OPPOSITE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE COLD AIRMASS FROM EARLY IN
THE WEEK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AT
LEAST WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...EVEN IF NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AT KLBF.  SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE VFR BY 20Z.  AT KVTN...SKIES WILL REMAIN
OVERCAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...IN FACT MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE INDICATES KVTN REMAINING AT MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.  WILL BRIEFLY INCLUDE A SCT030 CEILING THIS
AFTERNOON AT KVTN...BUT THEN TREND SKIES BELOW MVFR THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE -SN IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE...IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MINIMAL AS
VISBY REDUCTIONS WILL ONLY FALL BRIEFLY BLO 6SM...THIS SNOW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT KLBF OR KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...KECK/JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KOAX 261535
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
935 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID MORNING UPDATE TO TWEAK WINDS/LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES/CLOUDS ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWEST
WINDS. DID INCLUDE A WINDS ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY WHEN
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA TO
QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH STRONG
WINDS...LIGHT RAIN AND THEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SOMEWHAT MESSY AVIATION FORECAST WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS AROUND
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CEILING FOR THE MOST PART
AT KOFK AND KOMA BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN PCPN...WHICH WOULD
BE LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. KLNK WILL BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS AND MAYBE A BIT OF LIGHT PCPN. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE DAY THEN DROP OFF A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.

EXACTLY HOW FAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN IS PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS...
BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 261535
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
935 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MID MORNING UPDATE TO TWEAK WINDS/LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES/CLOUDS ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHWEST
WINDS. DID INCLUDE A WINDS ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY WHEN
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA TO
QUICKLY DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH STRONG
WINDS...LIGHT RAIN AND THEN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SOMEWHAT MESSY AVIATION FORECAST WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS AROUND
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CEILING FOR THE MOST PART
AT KOFK AND KOMA BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN PCPN...WHICH WOULD
BE LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. KLNK WILL BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS AND MAYBE A BIT OF LIGHT PCPN. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE DAY THEN DROP OFF A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.

EXACTLY HOW FAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN IS PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS...
BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078-088-089.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZAPOTOCNY
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 261157
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
557 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN NEBR. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGER IN ERN AND NERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO. ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY RANGE IN MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED FLURRIES
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY
TODAY...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. TIME
SECTION IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY REVEAL INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
TODAY WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL BE LACKING
IS LIFT. ONLY POCKETS OF WEAK OMEGA WITHIN OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TIME SECTIONS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH H85 TEMPS HOLDING NEAR -7C AT ONL...AND
MODERATING TO -2C TO -4C ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S THIS MORNING AND RECOVER MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. HIGHS IN SWRN NEBR TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
LATEST MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. IN FACT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
MPH.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS SCATTERED FLURRIES MOVE EASTWARD IN
NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT AS WELL...AS H8 FRONT MOVES EAST TO NEAR A VTN AND BBW LINE BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS REFLECTED SOMEWHAT IN TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S WESTERN SANDHILLS TO THE MID TEENS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS LARGELY DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...THEN WITH COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK BUT THERE
BEGINS TO BE ENOUGH CHANGES COMING INTO PLAY BY THE WEEKEND TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THESE PERIODS. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE
HAS TO DO WITH THE EVOLVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS IS CURRENTLY THE FASTEST SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS WAVE
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS SEE
FURTHER DIVERGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH LED TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEING USED FOR THE FORECAST.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND DO EXPECT THIS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST DRY AND COOL
FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE BY AROUND
10C OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY ONLY MIXING TO AROUND 900MB
IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MEANWHILE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MIXING TO NEAR 850MB WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL AROUND 13C WOULD BRING HIGHS TO AROUND
60.

A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...FURTHER
INCREASING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SWITCHING THE WINDS TO FAVORED
WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION WHICH HAS A STRONGER 850 AND 700MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 12C. GETTING INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THESE READINGS INCREASE TO NEAR 19C. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
NEAR 800 MB. THE WESTERLY WINDS WON/T BE REAL STRONG AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN UNDER 15KTS SO THEY WON/T HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT...BUT JUST MIXING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD
GIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREE READINGS IN PLACES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING SO LOWS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT AS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED BACK TO A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH IS NOW AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON
THE TIMING OF THIS DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO WARM...DESPITE THE ECMWF
KEEPING 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13-18C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ANOTHER DAY OF 70 DEGREE POTENTIALS
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
BACK TO THE REGION...HOWEVER AGAIN THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF EXACTLY HOW COLD. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE COLDER
SOLUTION AND DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A RANGE OF -11 TO
-18 BY 00Z MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY IN
THE 20S AND 30S...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THOSE TO BE TOO WARM IF
THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT. THINK ALSO THAT IT WILL BE LIKELY
THAT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO MIXING OF THE MIXED LAYER AND
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN COMING
FORECASTS. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BE OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS
IN THE LOW TEENS BUT MAY NEED TO GO COLDER ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH
ENDS UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...AS SAID PREVIOUSLY...LARGE MODEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS WITH AT ONE POINT THE AREA BEING UNDER COMPLETE
OPPOSITE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE COLD AIRMASS FROM EARLY IN
THE WEEK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AT
LEAST WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...EVEN IF NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT KVTN SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 17Z AS NORTHWEST WINDS
33022G29KT DIMINISH TO 33011G18KT. AT KLBF...MVFR CEILINGS LOOK
PROBABLE TO OCCUR UNTIL 15Z...THEN PREVAILING AS SCT030
THEREAFTER. LIKEWISE...WINDS NEAR 34017G25KT WILL ALSO DIMINISH
TO 33011KT BY 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 261157
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
557 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN NEBR. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGER IN ERN AND NERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO. ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY RANGE IN MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED FLURRIES
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY
TODAY...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. TIME
SECTION IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY REVEAL INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
TODAY WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL BE LACKING
IS LIFT. ONLY POCKETS OF WEAK OMEGA WITHIN OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TIME SECTIONS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH H85 TEMPS HOLDING NEAR -7C AT ONL...AND
MODERATING TO -2C TO -4C ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S THIS MORNING AND RECOVER MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. HIGHS IN SWRN NEBR TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
LATEST MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. IN FACT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
MPH.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS SCATTERED FLURRIES MOVE EASTWARD IN
NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT AS WELL...AS H8 FRONT MOVES EAST TO NEAR A VTN AND BBW LINE BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS REFLECTED SOMEWHAT IN TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S WESTERN SANDHILLS TO THE MID TEENS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS LARGELY DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...THEN WITH COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK BUT THERE
BEGINS TO BE ENOUGH CHANGES COMING INTO PLAY BY THE WEEKEND TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THESE PERIODS. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE
HAS TO DO WITH THE EVOLVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS IS CURRENTLY THE FASTEST SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS WAVE
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS SEE
FURTHER DIVERGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH LED TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEING USED FOR THE FORECAST.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND DO EXPECT THIS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST DRY AND COOL
FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE BY AROUND
10C OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY ONLY MIXING TO AROUND 900MB
IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MEANWHILE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MIXING TO NEAR 850MB WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL AROUND 13C WOULD BRING HIGHS TO AROUND
60.

A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...FURTHER
INCREASING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SWITCHING THE WINDS TO FAVORED
WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION WHICH HAS A STRONGER 850 AND 700MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 12C. GETTING INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THESE READINGS INCREASE TO NEAR 19C. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
NEAR 800 MB. THE WESTERLY WINDS WON/T BE REAL STRONG AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN UNDER 15KTS SO THEY WON/T HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT...BUT JUST MIXING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD
GIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREE READINGS IN PLACES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING SO LOWS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT AS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED BACK TO A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH IS NOW AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON
THE TIMING OF THIS DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO WARM...DESPITE THE ECMWF
KEEPING 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13-18C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ANOTHER DAY OF 70 DEGREE POTENTIALS
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
BACK TO THE REGION...HOWEVER AGAIN THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF EXACTLY HOW COLD. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE COLDER
SOLUTION AND DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A RANGE OF -11 TO
-18 BY 00Z MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY IN
THE 20S AND 30S...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THOSE TO BE TOO WARM IF
THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT. THINK ALSO THAT IT WILL BE LIKELY
THAT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO MIXING OF THE MIXED LAYER AND
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN COMING
FORECASTS. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BE OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS
IN THE LOW TEENS BUT MAY NEED TO GO COLDER ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH
ENDS UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...AS SAID PREVIOUSLY...LARGE MODEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS WITH AT ONE POINT THE AREA BEING UNDER COMPLETE
OPPOSITE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE COLD AIRMASS FROM EARLY IN
THE WEEK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AT
LEAST WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...EVEN IF NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT KVTN SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 17Z AS NORTHWEST WINDS
33022G29KT DIMINISH TO 33011G18KT. AT KLBF...MVFR CEILINGS LOOK
PROBABLE TO OCCUR UNTIL 15Z...THEN PREVAILING AS SCT030
THEREAFTER. LIKEWISE...WINDS NEAR 34017G25KT WILL ALSO DIMINISH
TO 33011KT BY 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 261157
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
557 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN NEBR. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGER IN ERN AND NERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO. ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY RANGE IN MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED FLURRIES
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY
TODAY...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. TIME
SECTION IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY REVEAL INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
TODAY WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL BE LACKING
IS LIFT. ONLY POCKETS OF WEAK OMEGA WITHIN OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TIME SECTIONS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH H85 TEMPS HOLDING NEAR -7C AT ONL...AND
MODERATING TO -2C TO -4C ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S THIS MORNING AND RECOVER MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. HIGHS IN SWRN NEBR TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
LATEST MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. IN FACT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
MPH.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS SCATTERED FLURRIES MOVE EASTWARD IN
NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT AS WELL...AS H8 FRONT MOVES EAST TO NEAR A VTN AND BBW LINE BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS REFLECTED SOMEWHAT IN TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S WESTERN SANDHILLS TO THE MID TEENS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS LARGELY DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...THEN WITH COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK BUT THERE
BEGINS TO BE ENOUGH CHANGES COMING INTO PLAY BY THE WEEKEND TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THESE PERIODS. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE
HAS TO DO WITH THE EVOLVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS IS CURRENTLY THE FASTEST SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS WAVE
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS SEE
FURTHER DIVERGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH LED TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEING USED FOR THE FORECAST.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND DO EXPECT THIS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST DRY AND COOL
FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE BY AROUND
10C OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY ONLY MIXING TO AROUND 900MB
IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MEANWHILE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MIXING TO NEAR 850MB WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL AROUND 13C WOULD BRING HIGHS TO AROUND
60.

A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...FURTHER
INCREASING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SWITCHING THE WINDS TO FAVORED
WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION WHICH HAS A STRONGER 850 AND 700MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 12C. GETTING INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THESE READINGS INCREASE TO NEAR 19C. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
NEAR 800 MB. THE WESTERLY WINDS WON/T BE REAL STRONG AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN UNDER 15KTS SO THEY WON/T HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT...BUT JUST MIXING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD
GIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREE READINGS IN PLACES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING SO LOWS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT AS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED BACK TO A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH IS NOW AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON
THE TIMING OF THIS DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO WARM...DESPITE THE ECMWF
KEEPING 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13-18C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ANOTHER DAY OF 70 DEGREE POTENTIALS
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
BACK TO THE REGION...HOWEVER AGAIN THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF EXACTLY HOW COLD. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE COLDER
SOLUTION AND DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A RANGE OF -11 TO
-18 BY 00Z MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY IN
THE 20S AND 30S...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THOSE TO BE TOO WARM IF
THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT. THINK ALSO THAT IT WILL BE LIKELY
THAT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO MIXING OF THE MIXED LAYER AND
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN COMING
FORECASTS. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BE OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS
IN THE LOW TEENS BUT MAY NEED TO GO COLDER ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH
ENDS UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...AS SAID PREVIOUSLY...LARGE MODEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS WITH AT ONE POINT THE AREA BEING UNDER COMPLETE
OPPOSITE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE COLD AIRMASS FROM EARLY IN
THE WEEK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AT
LEAST WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...EVEN IF NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT KVTN SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 17Z AS NORTHWEST WINDS
33022G29KT DIMINISH TO 33011G18KT. AT KLBF...MVFR CEILINGS LOOK
PROBABLE TO OCCUR UNTIL 15Z...THEN PREVAILING AS SCT030
THEREAFTER. LIKEWISE...WINDS NEAR 34017G25KT WILL ALSO DIMINISH
TO 33011KT BY 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 261157
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
557 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN NEBR. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGER IN ERN AND NERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO. ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY RANGE IN MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED FLURRIES
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY
TODAY...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. TIME
SECTION IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY REVEAL INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
TODAY WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL BE LACKING
IS LIFT. ONLY POCKETS OF WEAK OMEGA WITHIN OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TIME SECTIONS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH H85 TEMPS HOLDING NEAR -7C AT ONL...AND
MODERATING TO -2C TO -4C ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S THIS MORNING AND RECOVER MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. HIGHS IN SWRN NEBR TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
LATEST MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. IN FACT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
MPH.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS SCATTERED FLURRIES MOVE EASTWARD IN
NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT AS WELL...AS H8 FRONT MOVES EAST TO NEAR A VTN AND BBW LINE BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS REFLECTED SOMEWHAT IN TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S WESTERN SANDHILLS TO THE MID TEENS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS LARGELY DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...THEN WITH COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK BUT THERE
BEGINS TO BE ENOUGH CHANGES COMING INTO PLAY BY THE WEEKEND TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THESE PERIODS. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE
HAS TO DO WITH THE EVOLVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS IS CURRENTLY THE FASTEST SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS WAVE
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS SEE
FURTHER DIVERGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH LED TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEING USED FOR THE FORECAST.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND DO EXPECT THIS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST DRY AND COOL
FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE BY AROUND
10C OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY ONLY MIXING TO AROUND 900MB
IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MEANWHILE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MIXING TO NEAR 850MB WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL AROUND 13C WOULD BRING HIGHS TO AROUND
60.

A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...FURTHER
INCREASING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SWITCHING THE WINDS TO FAVORED
WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION WHICH HAS A STRONGER 850 AND 700MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 12C. GETTING INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THESE READINGS INCREASE TO NEAR 19C. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
NEAR 800 MB. THE WESTERLY WINDS WON/T BE REAL STRONG AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN UNDER 15KTS SO THEY WON/T HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT...BUT JUST MIXING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD
GIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREE READINGS IN PLACES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING SO LOWS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT AS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED BACK TO A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH IS NOW AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON
THE TIMING OF THIS DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO WARM...DESPITE THE ECMWF
KEEPING 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13-18C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ANOTHER DAY OF 70 DEGREE POTENTIALS
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
BACK TO THE REGION...HOWEVER AGAIN THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF EXACTLY HOW COLD. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE COLDER
SOLUTION AND DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A RANGE OF -11 TO
-18 BY 00Z MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY IN
THE 20S AND 30S...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THOSE TO BE TOO WARM IF
THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT. THINK ALSO THAT IT WILL BE LIKELY
THAT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO MIXING OF THE MIXED LAYER AND
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN COMING
FORECASTS. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BE OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS
IN THE LOW TEENS BUT MAY NEED TO GO COLDER ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH
ENDS UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...AS SAID PREVIOUSLY...LARGE MODEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS WITH AT ONE POINT THE AREA BEING UNDER COMPLETE
OPPOSITE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE COLD AIRMASS FROM EARLY IN
THE WEEK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AT
LEAST WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...EVEN IF NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT KVTN SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 17Z AS NORTHWEST WINDS
33022G29KT DIMINISH TO 33011G18KT. AT KLBF...MVFR CEILINGS LOOK
PROBABLE TO OCCUR UNTIL 15Z...THEN PREVAILING AS SCT030
THEREAFTER. LIKEWISE...WINDS NEAR 34017G25KT WILL ALSO DIMINISH
TO 33011KT BY 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KGID 261126
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
526 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ODX REPORTED A G38 KTS ABOUT 30 MIN AGO. BBW 39 KTS. SO SUSTAINED
WINDS AND GUSTS WERE NUDGED A LITTLE HIGHER THRU 16Z.

TEMPS CONT TO RESIST FALLING DESPITE MODEL INSISTENCE. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP CURVES THRU MIDDAY. BELIEVE TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY CONT TO SLOWLY DROP PAST SUNRISE AND THRU MID-MORNING.

RADAR SHOWS THE POCKETS OF FLURRIES HAVE MOVED INTO THE I-80
CORRIDOR FROM E OF KEARNEY. WE HAVE SMALL FLURRIES HERE AT THE
OFFICE AT THIS TIME.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ORD WAS REPORTING FLURRIES AT 4 AM WITHIN THE INTENSIFYING CAA/
INSTABILITY. SO SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST TO ACCT FOR THIS.
ALSO PUT THE RADAR IN VCP31 TO ATTEMPT TO PICK UP THE FLURRIES A
LITTLE BETTER. UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS VARIABLE CLOUDS
COMPLICATE OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY COLD DAY ESPECIALLY N OF HWY 6
WHERE TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S...

ALOFT: THE LONGWAVES WERE COMPRISED OF AN ERN USA TROF AND A W
COAST RIDGE. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH A BROAD RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WRN USA. THIS MEANS
NW FLOW AND SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES HERE ON THE PLAINS.

SURFACE: THE CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL DEPART THE REGION TO THE SE TODAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL SLIDE SE IN ITS WAKE AND SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ITS
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

TODAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF CLOUD COVER
CRESTING THE RIDGE AND HEADING SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.
THE BIGGEST COMPLICATION IN THIS FCST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TODAY. BELIEVE THE DAY WILL AVERAGE OUT M/CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL
BE TIMES WHEN SOME AREAS TURN P/CLOUDY AND TEMPORARILY SEE A
LITTLE EXTRA SUN.

WIND: THE GREATEST PRES RISES AND PRES GRADIENT WILL MOVE THRU IN
THE 6AM-12PM TIME FRAME. THE LOW-LVL WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONGEST
AT 12Z AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DRIFT E. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/HRRR SHOW INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPANSION WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING/DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF 35-40 KTS
FROM 1500 FT 12Z-15Z. SO BOTTOM LINE IS WINDIEST PART OF THE DAY
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 10 AM.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
HOW MILD TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVERNIGHT /ABOVE FRZG/ AND THAT MOS
OFFERS HIGHS COLDER THAN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...IT
SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...EVEN
AFTER THE BURST OF CAA IS OVER THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT FCST TO BE
ALL THAT COLD ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO AVERAGE AROUND -5C.
CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THE BIGGEST FACTOR.

TONIGHT: VARIABLE CLOUDS BUT IT PROBABLY AVERAGES OUT M/CLOUDY
AGAIN. LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS /PARTICULARLY THE WRF WITH THE NMM CORE/
BRING A STRIP OF VERY LIGHT NW-SE ORIENTED STRIP OF REFLECTIVITY
THRU S-CNTRL NEB IN THE 03Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO ITS
MICROPHYSICS SCHEME WHICH CAN BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AT TIMES. FCST
SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A SATURATED LAYER FROM 5-10K FT...BUT NO ICE IS
FCST IN-CLOUD. SO FCST REMAINS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF FLURRIES.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET EVEN FOR A BRIEF TIME. SO USED CONSENSUS OF MOS
WHICH WAS 5-6F COLDER THAN CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS. COULD GET
BURNED ON THIS IF BREAKS DON`T DEVELOP.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A
DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH STILL
COOL...AND THEN A VERY NICE WARM UP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THANKSGIVING...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GOOD AND FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE TEMPERATURE AT 850 MB SHOULD RISE FROM THE -4 TO -6C
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE BY
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING ON THE WARMER END
AND THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE COOLER END. THE SFC WIND WILL ALSO TURN
SOUTHERLY WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING...WHILE BEING LIGHT ENOUGH
TO NOT BE OVERLY UNCOMFORTABLE AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...IT WILL
STILL FEEL COOL OUT THERE FOR YOUR THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S EAST AND
NORTH OF THE TRI CITIES...TO AS WARM AS 50 DEGREES IN THE BEAVER
CITY NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NICEST DAYS OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD BE THESE TWO DAYS. THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH THE REAL COLD AIR LOCKED UP OVER CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING VERY NICE DAYS WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL LIKELY CLIMB FROM THE 2 TO 8C RANGE ON THURSDAY...INTO THE 11
TO 16C RANGE ON FRIDAY...AND TO AROUND 16 TO 18C BY SATURDAY
INDICATIVE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SFC
WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE WEST. ALL IN ALL
EXPECT TWO VERY NICE DAYS WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH DAYS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR FULL
DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS GOOD FORECAST AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE AROUND 40F. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FALL THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS. IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT IT WILL BE COLD. THANKFULLY THE COLD AIR SHOULD
ONLY LAST INTO MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BY TUESDAY. THE
IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ON SUNDAY IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SO IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE A NICE DAY.
SFC WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 40S TO PERHAPS EVEN 50 OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THU MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TODAY: AS MODELS DEPICTED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...MVFR CIGS ARE ON
THE DOORSTEP. BBW/ODX/OLU ARE ALL REPORTING 2500-3000 FT CIGS. SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY AND AFFECT
THE AIRPORTS THRU MIDDAY. NW WINDS HAVE GUSTED 38-39 KTS AT ODX/
BBW IN THE LAST HR. EXPECT SIMILAR WINDS AT GRI/EAR THRU 17Z.
THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS BREAK UP LEAVING VFR MID-HIGH CIGS AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS GRADUALLY DESCEND FROM 10K FT DOWN
TO 5K. LIGHT WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE N WILL SHIFT TO SE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261120
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SOMEWHAT MESSY AVIATION FORECAST WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS AROUND
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CEILING FOR THE MOST PART
AT KOFK AND KOMA BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN PCPN...WHICH WOULD
BE LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. KLNK WILL BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS AND MAYBE A BIT OF LIGHT PCPN. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE DAY THEN DROP OFF A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.

EXACTLY HOW FAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN IS PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS...
BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 261120
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SOMEWHAT MESSY AVIATION FORECAST WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS AROUND
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CEILING FOR THE MOST PART
AT KOFK AND KOMA BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR IN PCPN...WHICH WOULD
BE LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. KLNK WILL BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR
CEILINGS AND MAYBE A BIT OF LIGHT PCPN. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE DAY THEN DROP OFF A BIT TOWARD SUNSET AND
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.

EXACTLY HOW FAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BREAKS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN IS PROBLEMATIC. EXPECT A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS...
BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 261004
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
404 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN NEBR. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGER IN ERN AND NERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO. ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY RANGE IN MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED FLURRIES
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY
TODAY...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. TIME
SECTION IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY REVEAL INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
TODAY WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL BE LACKING
IS LIFT. ONLY POCKETS OF WEAK OMEGA WITHIN OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TIME SECTIONS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH H85 TEMPS HOLDING NEAR -7C AT ONL...AND
MODERATING TO -2C TO -4C ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S THIS MORNING AND RECOVER MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. HIGHS IN SWRN NEBR TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
LATEST MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. IN FACT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
MPH.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS SCATTERED FLURRIES MOVE EASTWARD IN
NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT AS WELL...AS H8 FRONT MOVES EAST TO NEAR A VTN AND BBW LINE BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS REFLECTED SOMEWHAT IN TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S WESTERN SANDHILLS TO THE MID TEENS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS LARGELY DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...THEN WITH COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK BUT THERE
BEGINS TO BE ENOUGH CHANGES COMING INTO PLAY BY THE WEEKEND TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THESE PERIODS. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE
HAS TO DO WITH THE EVOLVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS IS CURRENTLY THE FASTEST SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS WAVE
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS SEE
FURTHER DIVERGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH LED TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEING USED FOR THE FORECAST.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND DO EXPECT THIS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST DRY AND COOL
FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE BY AROUND
10C OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY ONLY MIXING TO AROUND 900MB
IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MEANWHILE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MIXING TO NEAR 850MB WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL AROUND 13C WOULD BRING HIGHS TO AROUND
60.

A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...FURTHER
INCREASING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SWITCHING THE WINDS TO FAVORED
WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION WHICH HAS A STRONGER 850 AND 700MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 12C. GETTING INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THESE READINGS INCREASE TO NEAR 19C. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
NEAR 800 MB. THE WESTERLY WINDS WON/T BE REAL STRONG AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN UNDER 15KTS SO THEY WON/T HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT...BUT JUST MIXING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD
GIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREE READINGS IN PLACES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING SO LOWS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT AS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED BACK TO A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH IS NOW AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON
THE TIMING OF THIS DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO WARM...DESPITE THE ECMWF
KEEPING 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13-18C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ANOTHER DAY OF 70 DEGREE POTENTIALS
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
BACK TO THE REGION...HOWEVER AGAIN THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF EXACTLY HOW COLD. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE COLDER
SOLUTION AND DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A RANGE OF -11 TO
-18 BY 00Z MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY IN
THE 20S AND 30S...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THOSE TO BE TOO WARM IF
THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT. THINK ALSO THAT IT WILL BE LIKELY
THAT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO MIXING OF THE MIXED LAYER AND
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN COMING
FORECASTS. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BE OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS
IN THE LOW TEENS BUT MAY NEED TO GO COLDER ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH
ENDS UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...AS SAID PREVIOUSLY...LARGE MODEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS WITH AT ONE POINT THE AREA BEING UNDER COMPLETE
OPPOSITE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE COLD AIRMASS FROM EARLY IN
THE WEEK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AT
LEAST WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...EVEN IF NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS SD MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT AND COLD AIR BEHIND IT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY NORTH.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z-17Z WEDNESDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER.

LOCAL MVFR IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 15Z. ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LOWERING CIGS
MOMENTARILY TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN NEB AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THESE LOWER CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH 06Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 261004
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
404 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN NEBR. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGER IN ERN AND NERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO. ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY RANGE IN MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED FLURRIES
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY
TODAY...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. TIME
SECTION IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY REVEAL INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
TODAY WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL BE LACKING
IS LIFT. ONLY POCKETS OF WEAK OMEGA WITHIN OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TIME SECTIONS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH H85 TEMPS HOLDING NEAR -7C AT ONL...AND
MODERATING TO -2C TO -4C ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S THIS MORNING AND RECOVER MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. HIGHS IN SWRN NEBR TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
LATEST MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. IN FACT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
MPH.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS SCATTERED FLURRIES MOVE EASTWARD IN
NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT AS WELL...AS H8 FRONT MOVES EAST TO NEAR A VTN AND BBW LINE BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS REFLECTED SOMEWHAT IN TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S WESTERN SANDHILLS TO THE MID TEENS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS LARGELY DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...THEN WITH COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK BUT THERE
BEGINS TO BE ENOUGH CHANGES COMING INTO PLAY BY THE WEEKEND TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THESE PERIODS. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE
HAS TO DO WITH THE EVOLVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS IS CURRENTLY THE FASTEST SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS WAVE
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS SEE
FURTHER DIVERGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH LED TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEING USED FOR THE FORECAST.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND DO EXPECT THIS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST DRY AND COOL
FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE BY AROUND
10C OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY ONLY MIXING TO AROUND 900MB
IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MEANWHILE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MIXING TO NEAR 850MB WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL AROUND 13C WOULD BRING HIGHS TO AROUND
60.

A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...FURTHER
INCREASING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SWITCHING THE WINDS TO FAVORED
WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION WHICH HAS A STRONGER 850 AND 700MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 12C. GETTING INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THESE READINGS INCREASE TO NEAR 19C. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
NEAR 800 MB. THE WESTERLY WINDS WON/T BE REAL STRONG AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN UNDER 15KTS SO THEY WON/T HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT...BUT JUST MIXING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD
GIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREE READINGS IN PLACES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING SO LOWS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT AS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED BACK TO A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH IS NOW AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON
THE TIMING OF THIS DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO WARM...DESPITE THE ECMWF
KEEPING 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13-18C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ANOTHER DAY OF 70 DEGREE POTENTIALS
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
BACK TO THE REGION...HOWEVER AGAIN THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF EXACTLY HOW COLD. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE COLDER
SOLUTION AND DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A RANGE OF -11 TO
-18 BY 00Z MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY IN
THE 20S AND 30S...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THOSE TO BE TOO WARM IF
THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT. THINK ALSO THAT IT WILL BE LIKELY
THAT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO MIXING OF THE MIXED LAYER AND
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN COMING
FORECASTS. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BE OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS
IN THE LOW TEENS BUT MAY NEED TO GO COLDER ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH
ENDS UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...AS SAID PREVIOUSLY...LARGE MODEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS WITH AT ONE POINT THE AREA BEING UNDER COMPLETE
OPPOSITE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE COLD AIRMASS FROM EARLY IN
THE WEEK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AT
LEAST WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...EVEN IF NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS SD MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT AND COLD AIR BEHIND IT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY NORTH.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z-17Z WEDNESDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER.

LOCAL MVFR IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 15Z. ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LOWERING CIGS
MOMENTARILY TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN NEB AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THESE LOWER CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH 06Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 261004
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
404 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN NEBR. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGER IN ERN AND NERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO. ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY RANGE IN MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED FLURRIES
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY
TODAY...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. TIME
SECTION IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY REVEAL INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
TODAY WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL BE LACKING
IS LIFT. ONLY POCKETS OF WEAK OMEGA WITHIN OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TIME SECTIONS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH H85 TEMPS HOLDING NEAR -7C AT ONL...AND
MODERATING TO -2C TO -4C ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S THIS MORNING AND RECOVER MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. HIGHS IN SWRN NEBR TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
LATEST MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. IN FACT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
MPH.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS SCATTERED FLURRIES MOVE EASTWARD IN
NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT AS WELL...AS H8 FRONT MOVES EAST TO NEAR A VTN AND BBW LINE BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS REFLECTED SOMEWHAT IN TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S WESTERN SANDHILLS TO THE MID TEENS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS LARGELY DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...THEN WITH COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK BUT THERE
BEGINS TO BE ENOUGH CHANGES COMING INTO PLAY BY THE WEEKEND TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THESE PERIODS. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE
HAS TO DO WITH THE EVOLVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS IS CURRENTLY THE FASTEST SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS WAVE
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS SEE
FURTHER DIVERGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH LED TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEING USED FOR THE FORECAST.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND DO EXPECT THIS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST DRY AND COOL
FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE BY AROUND
10C OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY ONLY MIXING TO AROUND 900MB
IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MEANWHILE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MIXING TO NEAR 850MB WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL AROUND 13C WOULD BRING HIGHS TO AROUND
60.

A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...FURTHER
INCREASING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SWITCHING THE WINDS TO FAVORED
WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION WHICH HAS A STRONGER 850 AND 700MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 12C. GETTING INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THESE READINGS INCREASE TO NEAR 19C. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
NEAR 800 MB. THE WESTERLY WINDS WON/T BE REAL STRONG AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN UNDER 15KTS SO THEY WON/T HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT...BUT JUST MIXING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD
GIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREE READINGS IN PLACES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING SO LOWS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT AS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED BACK TO A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH IS NOW AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON
THE TIMING OF THIS DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO WARM...DESPITE THE ECMWF
KEEPING 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13-18C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ANOTHER DAY OF 70 DEGREE POTENTIALS
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
BACK TO THE REGION...HOWEVER AGAIN THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF EXACTLY HOW COLD. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE COLDER
SOLUTION AND DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A RANGE OF -11 TO
-18 BY 00Z MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY IN
THE 20S AND 30S...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THOSE TO BE TOO WARM IF
THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT. THINK ALSO THAT IT WILL BE LIKELY
THAT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO MIXING OF THE MIXED LAYER AND
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN COMING
FORECASTS. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BE OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS
IN THE LOW TEENS BUT MAY NEED TO GO COLDER ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH
ENDS UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...AS SAID PREVIOUSLY...LARGE MODEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS WITH AT ONE POINT THE AREA BEING UNDER COMPLETE
OPPOSITE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE COLD AIRMASS FROM EARLY IN
THE WEEK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AT
LEAST WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...EVEN IF NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS SD MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT AND COLD AIR BEHIND IT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY NORTH.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z-17Z WEDNESDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER.

LOCAL MVFR IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 15Z. ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LOWERING CIGS
MOMENTARILY TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN NEB AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THESE LOWER CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH 06Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC









000
FXUS63 KLBF 261004
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
404 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN NEBR. SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGER IN ERN AND NERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO. ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY RANGE IN MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED FLURRIES
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY
TODAY...THEN EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. TIME
SECTION IN NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY REVEAL INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
TODAY WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL BE LACKING
IS LIFT. ONLY POCKETS OF WEAK OMEGA WITHIN OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TIME SECTIONS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH H85 TEMPS HOLDING NEAR -7C AT ONL...AND
MODERATING TO -2C TO -4C ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20S THIS MORNING AND RECOVER MOSTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. HIGHS IN SWRN NEBR TO REACH THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
LATEST MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE BLEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. IN FACT BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
MPH.

MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AS SCATTERED FLURRIES MOVE EASTWARD IN
NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
TONIGHT AS WELL...AS H8 FRONT MOVES EAST TO NEAR A VTN AND BBW LINE BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS REFLECTED SOMEWHAT IN TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S WESTERN SANDHILLS TO THE MID TEENS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS LARGELY DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK...THEN WITH COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK BUT THERE
BEGINS TO BE ENOUGH CHANGES COMING INTO PLAY BY THE WEEKEND TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING INTO THESE PERIODS. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE
HAS TO DO WITH THE EVOLVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS IS CURRENTLY THE FASTEST SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THIS WAVE
LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS SEE
FURTHER DIVERGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH LED TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST MONDAY WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEING USED FOR THE FORECAST.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND DO EXPECT THIS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST DRY AND COOL
FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE BY AROUND
10C OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY ONLY MIXING TO AROUND 900MB
IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MEANWHILE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...MIXING TO NEAR 850MB WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL AROUND 13C WOULD BRING HIGHS TO AROUND
60.

A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...FURTHER
INCREASING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SWITCHING THE WINDS TO FAVORED
WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WAS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION WHICH HAS A STRONGER 850 AND 700MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS IMPACTS THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF INCREASING 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 12C. GETTING INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THESE READINGS INCREASE TO NEAR 19C. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO
NEAR 800 MB. THE WESTERLY WINDS WON/T BE REAL STRONG AS WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REMAIN UNDER 15KTS SO THEY WON/T HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT...BUT JUST MIXING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD
GIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 70 DEGREE READINGS IN PLACES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING SO LOWS ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT AS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED BACK TO A SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WHICH IS NOW AGAIN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON
THE TIMING OF THIS DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO WARM...DESPITE THE ECMWF
KEEPING 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 13-18C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ANOTHER DAY OF 70 DEGREE POTENTIALS
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR
BACK TO THE REGION...HOWEVER AGAIN THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF EXACTLY HOW COLD. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE COLDER
SOLUTION AND DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A RANGE OF -11 TO
-18 BY 00Z MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY IN
THE 20S AND 30S...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THOSE TO BE TOO WARM IF
THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT. THINK ALSO THAT IT WILL BE LIKELY
THAT WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO MIXING OF THE MIXED LAYER AND
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN COMING
FORECASTS. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF THE NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BE OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS
IN THE LOW TEENS BUT MAY NEED TO GO COLDER ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH
ENDS UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...AS SAID PREVIOUSLY...LARGE MODEL
DIVERGENCE OCCURS WITH AT ONE POINT THE AREA BEING UNDER COMPLETE
OPPOSITE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE COLD AIRMASS FROM EARLY IN
THE WEEK SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AT
LEAST WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...EVEN IF NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS SD MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT AND COLD AIR BEHIND IT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY NORTH.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z-17Z WEDNESDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER.

LOCAL MVFR IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 15Z. ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LOWERING CIGS
MOMENTARILY TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN NEB AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THESE LOWER CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH 06Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC









000
FXUS63 KGID 261003
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ORD WAS REPORTING FLURRIES AT 4 AM WITHIN THE INTENSIFYING CAA/
INSTABILITY. SO SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST TO ACCT FOR THIS.
ALSO PUT THE RADAR IN VCP31 TO ATTEMPT TO PICK UP THE FLURRIES A
LITTLE BETTER. UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS VARIABLE CLOUDS
COMPLICATE OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY COLD DAY ESPECIALLY N OF HWY 6
WHERE TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S...

ALOFT: THE LONGWAVES WERE COMPRISED OF AN ERN USA TROF AND A W
COAST RIDGE. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH A BROAD RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WRN USA. THIS MEANS
NW FLOW AND SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES HERE ON THE PLAINS.

SURFACE: THE CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL DEPART THE REGION TO THE SE TODAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL SLIDE SE IN ITS WAKE AND SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ITS
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

TODAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF CLOUD COVER
CRESTING THE RIDGE AND HEADING SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.
THE BIGGEST COMPLICATION IN THIS FCST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TODAY. BELIEVE THE DAY WILL AVERAGE OUT M/CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL
BE TIMES WHEN SOME AREAS TURN P/CLOUDY AND TEMPORARILY SEE A
LITTLE EXTRA SUN.

WIND: THE GREATEST PRES RISES AND PRES GRADIENT WILL MOVE THRU IN
THE 6AM-12PM TIME FRAME. THE LOW-LVL WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONGEST
AT 12Z AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DRIFT E. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/HRRR SHOW INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPANSION WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING/DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF 35-40 KTS
FROM 1500 FT 12Z-15Z. SO BOTTOM LINE IS WINDIEST PART OF THE DAY
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 10 AM.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
HOW MILD TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVERNIGHT /ABOVE FRZG/ AND THAT MOS
OFFERS HIGHS COLDER THAN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...IT
SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...EVEN
AFTER THE BURST OF CAA IS OVER THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT FCST TO BE
ALL THAT COLD ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO AVERAGE AROUND -5C.
CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THE BIGGEST FACTOR.

TONIGHT: VARIABLE CLOUDS BUT IT PROBABLY AVERAGES OUT M/CLOUDY
AGAIN. LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS /PARTICULARLY THE WRF WITH THE NMM CORE/
BRING A STRIP OF VERY LIGHT NW-SE ORIENTED STRIP OF REFLECTIVITY
THRU S-CNTRL NEB IN THE 03Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO ITS
MICROPHYSICS SCHEME WHICH CAN BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AT TIMES. FCST
SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A SATURATED LAYER FROM 5-10K FT...BUT NO ICE IS
FCST IN-CLOUD. SO FCST REMAINS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF FLURRIES.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET EVEN FOR A BRIEF TIME. SO USED CONSENSUS OF MOS
WHICH WAS 5-6F COLDER THAN CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS. COULD GET
BURNED ON THIS IF BREAKS DON`T DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A
DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH STILL
COOL...AND THEN A VERY NICE WARM UP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THANKSGIVING...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GOOD AND FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE TEMPERATURE AT 850 MB SHOULD RISE FROM THE -4 TO -6C
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE BY
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING ON THE WARMER END
AND THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE COOLER END. THE SFC WIND WILL ALSO TURN
SOUTHERLY WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING...WHILE BEING LIGHT ENOUGH
TO NOT BE OVERLY UNCOMFORTABLE AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...IT WILL
STILL FEEL COOL OUT THERE FOR YOUR THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S EAST AND
NORTH OF THE TRI CITIES...TO AS WARM AS 50 DEGREES IN THE BEAVER
CITY NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NICEST DAYS OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD BE THESE TWO DAYS. THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH THE REAL COLD AIR LOCKED UP OVER CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING VERY NICE DAYS WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL LIKELY CLIMB FROM THE 2 TO 8C RANGE ON THURSDAY...INTO THE 11
TO 16C RANGE ON FRIDAY...AND TO AROUND 16 TO 18C BY SATURDAY
INDICATIVE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SFC
WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE WEST. ALL IN ALL
EXPECT TWO VERY NICE DAYS WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH DAYS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR FULL
DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS GOOD FORECAST AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE AROUND 40F. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FALL THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS. IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT IT WILL BE COLD. THANKFULLY THE COLD AIR SHOULD
ONLY LAST INTO MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BY TUESDAY. THE
IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ON SUNDAY IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SO IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE A NICE DAY.
SFC WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 40S TO PERHAPS EVEN 50 OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH VARIABLE MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 4K AND 9K
FT THRU 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 33 KTS AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED: MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND
BREAK-UP OF THE MVFR STRATOCU BY 18Z. NW WINDS GUST UP TO 35 KTS
BEFORE 18Z THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED EVE: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 10K FT. LIGHT WINDS BECOME NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 261003
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ORD WAS REPORTING FLURRIES AT 4 AM WITHIN THE INTENSIFYING CAA/
INSTABILITY. SO SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST TO ACCT FOR THIS.
ALSO PUT THE RADAR IN VCP31 TO ATTEMPT TO PICK UP THE FLURRIES A
LITTLE BETTER. UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS VARIABLE CLOUDS
COMPLICATE OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY COLD DAY ESPECIALLY N OF HWY 6
WHERE TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S...

ALOFT: THE LONGWAVES WERE COMPRISED OF AN ERN USA TROF AND A W
COAST RIDGE. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH A BROAD RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WRN USA. THIS MEANS
NW FLOW AND SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES HERE ON THE PLAINS.

SURFACE: THE CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL DEPART THE REGION TO THE SE TODAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL SLIDE SE IN ITS WAKE AND SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ITS
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

TODAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF CLOUD COVER
CRESTING THE RIDGE AND HEADING SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.
THE BIGGEST COMPLICATION IN THIS FCST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TODAY. BELIEVE THE DAY WILL AVERAGE OUT M/CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL
BE TIMES WHEN SOME AREAS TURN P/CLOUDY AND TEMPORARILY SEE A
LITTLE EXTRA SUN.

WIND: THE GREATEST PRES RISES AND PRES GRADIENT WILL MOVE THRU IN
THE 6AM-12PM TIME FRAME. THE LOW-LVL WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONGEST
AT 12Z AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DRIFT E. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/HRRR SHOW INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPANSION WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING/DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF 35-40 KTS
FROM 1500 FT 12Z-15Z. SO BOTTOM LINE IS WINDIEST PART OF THE DAY
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 10 AM.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
HOW MILD TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVERNIGHT /ABOVE FRZG/ AND THAT MOS
OFFERS HIGHS COLDER THAN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...IT
SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...EVEN
AFTER THE BURST OF CAA IS OVER THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT FCST TO BE
ALL THAT COLD ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO AVERAGE AROUND -5C.
CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THE BIGGEST FACTOR.

TONIGHT: VARIABLE CLOUDS BUT IT PROBABLY AVERAGES OUT M/CLOUDY
AGAIN. LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS /PARTICULARLY THE WRF WITH THE NMM CORE/
BRING A STRIP OF VERY LIGHT NW-SE ORIENTED STRIP OF REFLECTIVITY
THRU S-CNTRL NEB IN THE 03Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO ITS
MICROPHYSICS SCHEME WHICH CAN BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AT TIMES. FCST
SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A SATURATED LAYER FROM 5-10K FT...BUT NO ICE IS
FCST IN-CLOUD. SO FCST REMAINS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF FLURRIES.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET EVEN FOR A BRIEF TIME. SO USED CONSENSUS OF MOS
WHICH WAS 5-6F COLDER THAN CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS. COULD GET
BURNED ON THIS IF BREAKS DON`T DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A
DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH STILL
COOL...AND THEN A VERY NICE WARM UP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THANKSGIVING...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GOOD AND FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE TEMPERATURE AT 850 MB SHOULD RISE FROM THE -4 TO -6C
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE BY
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING ON THE WARMER END
AND THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE COOLER END. THE SFC WIND WILL ALSO TURN
SOUTHERLY WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING...WHILE BEING LIGHT ENOUGH
TO NOT BE OVERLY UNCOMFORTABLE AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...IT WILL
STILL FEEL COOL OUT THERE FOR YOUR THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S EAST AND
NORTH OF THE TRI CITIES...TO AS WARM AS 50 DEGREES IN THE BEAVER
CITY NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NICEST DAYS OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD BE THESE TWO DAYS. THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH THE REAL COLD AIR LOCKED UP OVER CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING VERY NICE DAYS WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL LIKELY CLIMB FROM THE 2 TO 8C RANGE ON THURSDAY...INTO THE 11
TO 16C RANGE ON FRIDAY...AND TO AROUND 16 TO 18C BY SATURDAY
INDICATIVE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SFC
WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE WEST. ALL IN ALL
EXPECT TWO VERY NICE DAYS WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH DAYS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR FULL
DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS GOOD FORECAST AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE AROUND 40F. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FALL THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS. IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT IT WILL BE COLD. THANKFULLY THE COLD AIR SHOULD
ONLY LAST INTO MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BY TUESDAY. THE
IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ON SUNDAY IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SO IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE A NICE DAY.
SFC WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 40S TO PERHAPS EVEN 50 OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH VARIABLE MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 4K AND 9K
FT THRU 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 33 KTS AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED: MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND
BREAK-UP OF THE MVFR STRATOCU BY 18Z. NW WINDS GUST UP TO 35 KTS
BEFORE 18Z THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED EVE: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 10K FT. LIGHT WINDS BECOME NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 261003
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ORD WAS REPORTING FLURRIES AT 4 AM WITHIN THE INTENSIFYING CAA/
INSTABILITY. SO SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST TO ACCT FOR THIS.
ALSO PUT THE RADAR IN VCP31 TO ATTEMPT TO PICK UP THE FLURRIES A
LITTLE BETTER. UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS VARIABLE CLOUDS
COMPLICATE OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY COLD DAY ESPECIALLY N OF HWY 6
WHERE TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S...

ALOFT: THE LONGWAVES WERE COMPRISED OF AN ERN USA TROF AND A W
COAST RIDGE. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH A BROAD RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WRN USA. THIS MEANS
NW FLOW AND SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES HERE ON THE PLAINS.

SURFACE: THE CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL DEPART THE REGION TO THE SE TODAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL SLIDE SE IN ITS WAKE AND SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ITS
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

TODAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF CLOUD COVER
CRESTING THE RIDGE AND HEADING SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.
THE BIGGEST COMPLICATION IN THIS FCST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TODAY. BELIEVE THE DAY WILL AVERAGE OUT M/CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL
BE TIMES WHEN SOME AREAS TURN P/CLOUDY AND TEMPORARILY SEE A
LITTLE EXTRA SUN.

WIND: THE GREATEST PRES RISES AND PRES GRADIENT WILL MOVE THRU IN
THE 6AM-12PM TIME FRAME. THE LOW-LVL WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONGEST
AT 12Z AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DRIFT E. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/HRRR SHOW INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPANSION WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING/DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF 35-40 KTS
FROM 1500 FT 12Z-15Z. SO BOTTOM LINE IS WINDIEST PART OF THE DAY
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 10 AM.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
HOW MILD TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVERNIGHT /ABOVE FRZG/ AND THAT MOS
OFFERS HIGHS COLDER THAN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...IT
SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...EVEN
AFTER THE BURST OF CAA IS OVER THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT FCST TO BE
ALL THAT COLD ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO AVERAGE AROUND -5C.
CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THE BIGGEST FACTOR.

TONIGHT: VARIABLE CLOUDS BUT IT PROBABLY AVERAGES OUT M/CLOUDY
AGAIN. LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS /PARTICULARLY THE WRF WITH THE NMM CORE/
BRING A STRIP OF VERY LIGHT NW-SE ORIENTED STRIP OF REFLECTIVITY
THRU S-CNTRL NEB IN THE 03Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO ITS
MICROPHYSICS SCHEME WHICH CAN BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AT TIMES. FCST
SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A SATURATED LAYER FROM 5-10K FT...BUT NO ICE IS
FCST IN-CLOUD. SO FCST REMAINS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF FLURRIES.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET EVEN FOR A BRIEF TIME. SO USED CONSENSUS OF MOS
WHICH WAS 5-6F COLDER THAN CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS. COULD GET
BURNED ON THIS IF BREAKS DON`T DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A
DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH STILL
COOL...AND THEN A VERY NICE WARM UP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THANKSGIVING...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GOOD AND FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE TEMPERATURE AT 850 MB SHOULD RISE FROM THE -4 TO -6C
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE BY
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING ON THE WARMER END
AND THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE COOLER END. THE SFC WIND WILL ALSO TURN
SOUTHERLY WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING...WHILE BEING LIGHT ENOUGH
TO NOT BE OVERLY UNCOMFORTABLE AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...IT WILL
STILL FEEL COOL OUT THERE FOR YOUR THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S EAST AND
NORTH OF THE TRI CITIES...TO AS WARM AS 50 DEGREES IN THE BEAVER
CITY NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NICEST DAYS OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD BE THESE TWO DAYS. THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH THE REAL COLD AIR LOCKED UP OVER CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING VERY NICE DAYS WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL LIKELY CLIMB FROM THE 2 TO 8C RANGE ON THURSDAY...INTO THE 11
TO 16C RANGE ON FRIDAY...AND TO AROUND 16 TO 18C BY SATURDAY
INDICATIVE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SFC
WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE WEST. ALL IN ALL
EXPECT TWO VERY NICE DAYS WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH DAYS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR FULL
DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS GOOD FORECAST AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE AROUND 40F. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FALL THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS. IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT IT WILL BE COLD. THANKFULLY THE COLD AIR SHOULD
ONLY LAST INTO MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BY TUESDAY. THE
IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ON SUNDAY IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SO IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE A NICE DAY.
SFC WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 40S TO PERHAPS EVEN 50 OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH VARIABLE MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 4K AND 9K
FT THRU 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 33 KTS AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED: MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND
BREAK-UP OF THE MVFR STRATOCU BY 18Z. NW WINDS GUST UP TO 35 KTS
BEFORE 18Z THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED EVE: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 10K FT. LIGHT WINDS BECOME NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 261003
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ORD WAS REPORTING FLURRIES AT 4 AM WITHIN THE INTENSIFYING CAA/
INSTABILITY. SO SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST TO ACCT FOR THIS.
ALSO PUT THE RADAR IN VCP31 TO ATTEMPT TO PICK UP THE FLURRIES A
LITTLE BETTER. UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS VARIABLE CLOUDS
COMPLICATE OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY COLD DAY ESPECIALLY N OF HWY 6
WHERE TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S...

ALOFT: THE LONGWAVES WERE COMPRISED OF AN ERN USA TROF AND A W
COAST RIDGE. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH A BROAD RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WRN USA. THIS MEANS
NW FLOW AND SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES HERE ON THE PLAINS.

SURFACE: THE CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL DEPART THE REGION TO THE SE TODAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL SLIDE SE IN ITS WAKE AND SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ITS
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

TODAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF CLOUD COVER
CRESTING THE RIDGE AND HEADING SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.
THE BIGGEST COMPLICATION IN THIS FCST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TODAY. BELIEVE THE DAY WILL AVERAGE OUT M/CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL
BE TIMES WHEN SOME AREAS TURN P/CLOUDY AND TEMPORARILY SEE A
LITTLE EXTRA SUN.

WIND: THE GREATEST PRES RISES AND PRES GRADIENT WILL MOVE THRU IN
THE 6AM-12PM TIME FRAME. THE LOW-LVL WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONGEST
AT 12Z AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DRIFT E. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/HRRR SHOW INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPANSION WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING/DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF 35-40 KTS
FROM 1500 FT 12Z-15Z. SO BOTTOM LINE IS WINDIEST PART OF THE DAY
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 10 AM.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
HOW MILD TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVERNIGHT /ABOVE FRZG/ AND THAT MOS
OFFERS HIGHS COLDER THAN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...IT
SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...EVEN
AFTER THE BURST OF CAA IS OVER THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT FCST TO BE
ALL THAT COLD ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO AVERAGE AROUND -5C.
CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THE BIGGEST FACTOR.

TONIGHT: VARIABLE CLOUDS BUT IT PROBABLY AVERAGES OUT M/CLOUDY
AGAIN. LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS /PARTICULARLY THE WRF WITH THE NMM CORE/
BRING A STRIP OF VERY LIGHT NW-SE ORIENTED STRIP OF REFLECTIVITY
THRU S-CNTRL NEB IN THE 03Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO ITS
MICROPHYSICS SCHEME WHICH CAN BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AT TIMES. FCST
SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A SATURATED LAYER FROM 5-10K FT...BUT NO ICE IS
FCST IN-CLOUD. SO FCST REMAINS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF FLURRIES.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET EVEN FOR A BRIEF TIME. SO USED CONSENSUS OF MOS
WHICH WAS 5-6F COLDER THAN CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS. COULD GET
BURNED ON THIS IF BREAKS DON`T DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A
DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH STILL
COOL...AND THEN A VERY NICE WARM UP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THANKSGIVING...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GOOD AND FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE TEMPERATURE AT 850 MB SHOULD RISE FROM THE -4 TO -6C
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE BY
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING ON THE WARMER END
AND THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE COOLER END. THE SFC WIND WILL ALSO TURN
SOUTHERLY WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING...WHILE BEING LIGHT ENOUGH
TO NOT BE OVERLY UNCOMFORTABLE AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...IT WILL
STILL FEEL COOL OUT THERE FOR YOUR THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S EAST AND
NORTH OF THE TRI CITIES...TO AS WARM AS 50 DEGREES IN THE BEAVER
CITY NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NICEST DAYS OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD BE THESE TWO DAYS. THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH THE REAL COLD AIR LOCKED UP OVER CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING VERY NICE DAYS WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL LIKELY CLIMB FROM THE 2 TO 8C RANGE ON THURSDAY...INTO THE 11
TO 16C RANGE ON FRIDAY...AND TO AROUND 16 TO 18C BY SATURDAY
INDICATIVE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SFC
WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE WEST. ALL IN ALL
EXPECT TWO VERY NICE DAYS WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH DAYS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR FULL
DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS GOOD FORECAST AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE AROUND 40F. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FALL THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS. IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT IT WILL BE COLD. THANKFULLY THE COLD AIR SHOULD
ONLY LAST INTO MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BY TUESDAY. THE
IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ON SUNDAY IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SO IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE A NICE DAY.
SFC WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 40S TO PERHAPS EVEN 50 OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH VARIABLE MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 4K AND 9K
FT THRU 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 33 KTS AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED: MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND
BREAK-UP OF THE MVFR STRATOCU BY 18Z. NW WINDS GUST UP TO 35 KTS
BEFORE 18Z THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED EVE: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 10K FT. LIGHT WINDS BECOME NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 261003
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ORD WAS REPORTING FLURRIES AT 4 AM WITHIN THE INTENSIFYING CAA/
INSTABILITY. SO SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST TO ACCT FOR THIS.
ALSO PUT THE RADAR IN VCP31 TO ATTEMPT TO PICK UP THE FLURRIES A
LITTLE BETTER. UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS VARIABLE CLOUDS
COMPLICATE OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY COLD DAY ESPECIALLY N OF HWY 6
WHERE TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S...

ALOFT: THE LONGWAVES WERE COMPRISED OF AN ERN USA TROF AND A W
COAST RIDGE. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH A BROAD RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WRN USA. THIS MEANS
NW FLOW AND SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES HERE ON THE PLAINS.

SURFACE: THE CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL DEPART THE REGION TO THE SE TODAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL SLIDE SE IN ITS WAKE AND SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ITS
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

TODAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF CLOUD COVER
CRESTING THE RIDGE AND HEADING SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.
THE BIGGEST COMPLICATION IN THIS FCST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TODAY. BELIEVE THE DAY WILL AVERAGE OUT M/CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL
BE TIMES WHEN SOME AREAS TURN P/CLOUDY AND TEMPORARILY SEE A
LITTLE EXTRA SUN.

WIND: THE GREATEST PRES RISES AND PRES GRADIENT WILL MOVE THRU IN
THE 6AM-12PM TIME FRAME. THE LOW-LVL WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONGEST
AT 12Z AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DRIFT E. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/HRRR SHOW INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPANSION WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING/DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF 35-40 KTS
FROM 1500 FT 12Z-15Z. SO BOTTOM LINE IS WINDIEST PART OF THE DAY
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 10 AM.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
HOW MILD TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVERNIGHT /ABOVE FRZG/ AND THAT MOS
OFFERS HIGHS COLDER THAN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...IT
SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...EVEN
AFTER THE BURST OF CAA IS OVER THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT FCST TO BE
ALL THAT COLD ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO AVERAGE AROUND -5C.
CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THE BIGGEST FACTOR.

TONIGHT: VARIABLE CLOUDS BUT IT PROBABLY AVERAGES OUT M/CLOUDY
AGAIN. LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS /PARTICULARLY THE WRF WITH THE NMM CORE/
BRING A STRIP OF VERY LIGHT NW-SE ORIENTED STRIP OF REFLECTIVITY
THRU S-CNTRL NEB IN THE 03Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO ITS
MICROPHYSICS SCHEME WHICH CAN BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AT TIMES. FCST
SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A SATURATED LAYER FROM 5-10K FT...BUT NO ICE IS
FCST IN-CLOUD. SO FCST REMAINS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF FLURRIES.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET EVEN FOR A BRIEF TIME. SO USED CONSENSUS OF MOS
WHICH WAS 5-6F COLDER THAN CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS. COULD GET
BURNED ON THIS IF BREAKS DON`T DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A
DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH STILL
COOL...AND THEN A VERY NICE WARM UP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THANKSGIVING...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GOOD AND FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE TEMPERATURE AT 850 MB SHOULD RISE FROM THE -4 TO -6C
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE BY
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING ON THE WARMER END
AND THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE COOLER END. THE SFC WIND WILL ALSO TURN
SOUTHERLY WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING...WHILE BEING LIGHT ENOUGH
TO NOT BE OVERLY UNCOMFORTABLE AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...IT WILL
STILL FEEL COOL OUT THERE FOR YOUR THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S EAST AND
NORTH OF THE TRI CITIES...TO AS WARM AS 50 DEGREES IN THE BEAVER
CITY NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NICEST DAYS OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD BE THESE TWO DAYS. THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH THE REAL COLD AIR LOCKED UP OVER CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING VERY NICE DAYS WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL LIKELY CLIMB FROM THE 2 TO 8C RANGE ON THURSDAY...INTO THE 11
TO 16C RANGE ON FRIDAY...AND TO AROUND 16 TO 18C BY SATURDAY
INDICATIVE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SFC
WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE WEST. ALL IN ALL
EXPECT TWO VERY NICE DAYS WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH DAYS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR FULL
DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS GOOD FORECAST AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE AROUND 40F. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FALL THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS. IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT IT WILL BE COLD. THANKFULLY THE COLD AIR SHOULD
ONLY LAST INTO MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BY TUESDAY. THE
IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ON SUNDAY IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SO IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE A NICE DAY.
SFC WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 40S TO PERHAPS EVEN 50 OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH VARIABLE MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 4K AND 9K
FT THRU 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 33 KTS AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED: MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND
BREAK-UP OF THE MVFR STRATOCU BY 18Z. NW WINDS GUST UP TO 35 KTS
BEFORE 18Z THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED EVE: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 10K FT. LIGHT WINDS BECOME NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 261003
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ORD WAS REPORTING FLURRIES AT 4 AM WITHIN THE INTENSIFYING CAA/
INSTABILITY. SO SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST TO ACCT FOR THIS.
ALSO PUT THE RADAR IN VCP31 TO ATTEMPT TO PICK UP THE FLURRIES A
LITTLE BETTER. UPDATED FCST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS VARIABLE CLOUDS
COMPLICATE OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY COLD DAY ESPECIALLY N OF HWY 6
WHERE TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S...

ALOFT: THE LONGWAVES WERE COMPRISED OF AN ERN USA TROF AND A W
COAST RIDGE. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH A BROAD RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WRN USA. THIS MEANS
NW FLOW AND SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES HERE ON THE PLAINS.

SURFACE: THE CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL DEPART THE REGION TO THE SE TODAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL SLIDE SE IN ITS WAKE AND SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ITS
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

TODAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF CLOUD COVER
CRESTING THE RIDGE AND HEADING SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.
THE BIGGEST COMPLICATION IN THIS FCST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TODAY. BELIEVE THE DAY WILL AVERAGE OUT M/CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL
BE TIMES WHEN SOME AREAS TURN P/CLOUDY AND TEMPORARILY SEE A
LITTLE EXTRA SUN.

WIND: THE GREATEST PRES RISES AND PRES GRADIENT WILL MOVE THRU IN
THE 6AM-12PM TIME FRAME. THE LOW-LVL WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONGEST
AT 12Z AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DRIFT E. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/HRRR SHOW INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPANSION WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING/DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF 35-40 KTS
FROM 1500 FT 12Z-15Z. SO BOTTOM LINE IS WINDIEST PART OF THE DAY
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 10 AM.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
HOW MILD TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVERNIGHT /ABOVE FRZG/ AND THAT MOS
OFFERS HIGHS COLDER THAN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...IT
SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...EVEN
AFTER THE BURST OF CAA IS OVER THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT FCST TO BE
ALL THAT COLD ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO AVERAGE AROUND -5C.
CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THE BIGGEST FACTOR.

TONIGHT: VARIABLE CLOUDS BUT IT PROBABLY AVERAGES OUT M/CLOUDY
AGAIN. LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS /PARTICULARLY THE WRF WITH THE NMM CORE/
BRING A STRIP OF VERY LIGHT NW-SE ORIENTED STRIP OF REFLECTIVITY
THRU S-CNTRL NEB IN THE 03Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO ITS
MICROPHYSICS SCHEME WHICH CAN BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AT TIMES. FCST
SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A SATURATED LAYER FROM 5-10K FT...BUT NO ICE IS
FCST IN-CLOUD. SO FCST REMAINS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF FLURRIES.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET EVEN FOR A BRIEF TIME. SO USED CONSENSUS OF MOS
WHICH WAS 5-6F COLDER THAN CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS. COULD GET
BURNED ON THIS IF BREAKS DON`T DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A
DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH STILL
COOL...AND THEN A VERY NICE WARM UP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THANKSGIVING...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GOOD AND FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE TEMPERATURE AT 850 MB SHOULD RISE FROM THE -4 TO -6C
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE BY
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING ON THE WARMER END
AND THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE COOLER END. THE SFC WIND WILL ALSO TURN
SOUTHERLY WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING...WHILE BEING LIGHT ENOUGH
TO NOT BE OVERLY UNCOMFORTABLE AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...IT WILL
STILL FEEL COOL OUT THERE FOR YOUR THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S EAST AND
NORTH OF THE TRI CITIES...TO AS WARM AS 50 DEGREES IN THE BEAVER
CITY NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NICEST DAYS OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD BE THESE TWO DAYS. THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH THE REAL COLD AIR LOCKED UP OVER CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING VERY NICE DAYS WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL LIKELY CLIMB FROM THE 2 TO 8C RANGE ON THURSDAY...INTO THE 11
TO 16C RANGE ON FRIDAY...AND TO AROUND 16 TO 18C BY SATURDAY
INDICATIVE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SFC
WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE WEST. ALL IN ALL
EXPECT TWO VERY NICE DAYS WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH DAYS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR FULL
DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS GOOD FORECAST AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE AROUND 40F. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FALL THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS. IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT IT WILL BE COLD. THANKFULLY THE COLD AIR SHOULD
ONLY LAST INTO MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BY TUESDAY. THE
IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ON SUNDAY IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SO IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE A NICE DAY.
SFC WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 40S TO PERHAPS EVEN 50 OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH VARIABLE MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 4K AND 9K
FT THRU 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 33 KTS AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED: MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND
BREAK-UP OF THE MVFR STRATOCU BY 18Z. NW WINDS GUST UP TO 35 KTS
BEFORE 18Z THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED EVE: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 10K FT. LIGHT WINDS BECOME NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260923
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS VARIABLE CLOUDS
COMPLICATE OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY COLD DAY ESPECIALLY N OF HWY 6
WHERE TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S...

ALOFT: THE LONGWAVES WERE COMPRISED OF AN ERN USA TROF AND A W
COAST RIDGE. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH A BROAD RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WRN USA. THIS MEANS
NW FLOW AND SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES HERE ON THE PLAINS.

SURFACE: THE CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL DEPART THE REGION TO THE SE TODAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL SLIDE SE IN ITS WAKE AND SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ITS
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

TODAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF CLOUD COVER
CRESTING THE RIDGE AND HEADING SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.
THE BIGGEST COMPLICATION IN THIS FCST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TODAY. BELIEVE THE DAY WILL AVERAGE OUT M/CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL
BE TIMES WHEN SOME AREAS TURN P/CLOUDY AND TEMPORARILY SEE A
LITTLE EXTRA SUN.

WIND: THE GREATEST PRES RISES AND PRES GRADIENT WILL MOVE THRU IN
THE 6AM-12PM TIME FRAME. THE LOW-LVL WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONGEST
AT 12Z AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DRIFT E. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/HRRR SHOW INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPANSION WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING/DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF 35-40 KTS
FROM 1500 FT 12Z-15Z. SO BOTTOM LINE IS WINDIEST PART OF THE DAY
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 10 AM.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
HOW MILD TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVERNIGHT /ABOVE FRZG/ AND THAT MOS
OFFERS HIGHS COLDER THAN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...IT
SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...EVEN
AFTER THE BURST OF CAA IS OVER THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT FCST TO BE
ALL THAT COLD ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO AVERAGE AROUND -5C.
CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THE BIGGEST FACTOR.

TONIGHT: VARIABLE CLOUDS BUT IT PROBABLY AVERAGES OUT M/CLOUDY
AGAIN. LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS /PARTICULARLY THE WRF WITH THE NMM CORE/
BRING A STRIP OF VERY LIGHT NW-SE ORIENTED STRIP OF REFLECTIVITY
THRU S-CNTRL NEB IN THE 03Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO ITS
MICROPHYSICS SCHEME WHICH CAN BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AT TIMES. FCST
SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A SATURATED LAYER FROM 5-10K FT...BUT NO ICE IS
FCST IN-CLOUD. SO FCST REMAINS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF FLURRIES.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET EVEN FOR A BRIEF TIME. SO USED CONSENSUS OF MOS
WHICH WAS 5-6F COLDER THAN CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS. COULD GET
BURNED ON THIS IF BREAKS DON`T DEVELOP.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A
DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH STILL
COOL...AND THEN A VERY NICE WARM UP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THANKSGIVING...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GOOD AND FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE TEMPERATURE AT 850 MB SHOULD RISE FROM THE -4 TO -6C
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE BY
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING ON THE WARMER END
AND THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE COOLER END. THE SFC WIND WILL ALSO TURN
SOUTHERLY WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING...WHILE BEING LIGHT ENOUGH
TO NOT BE OVERLY UNCOMFORTABLE AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...IT WILL
STILL FEEL COOL OUT THERE FOR YOUR THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S EAST AND
NORTH OF THE TRI CITIES...TO AS WARM AS 50 DEGREES IN THE BEAVER
CITY NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NICEST DAYS OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD BE THESE TWO DAYS. THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH THE REAL COLD AIR LOCKED UP OVER CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING VERY NICE DAYS WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL LIKELY CLIMB FROM THE 2 TO 8C RANGE ON THURSDAY...INTO THE 11
TO 16C RANGE ON FRIDAY...AND TO AROUND 16 TO 18C BY SATURDAY
INDICATIVE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SFC
WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE WEST. ALL IN ALL
EXPECT TWO VERY NICE DAYS WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH DAYS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR FULL
DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS GOOD FORECAST AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE AROUND 40F. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FALL THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS. IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT IT WILL BE COLD. THANKFULLY THE COLD AIR SHOULD
ONLY LAST INTO MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BY TUESDAY. THE
IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ON SUNDAY IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SO IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE A NICE DAY.
SFC WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 40S TO PERHAPS EVEN 50 OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH VARIABLE MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 4K AND 9K
FT THRU 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 33 KTS AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED: MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND
BREAK-UP OF THE MVFR STRATOCU BY 18Z. NW WINDS GUST UP TO 35 KTS
BEFORE 18Z THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED EVE: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 10K FT. LIGHT WINDS BECOME NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 260923
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS VARIABLE CLOUDS
COMPLICATE OTHERWISE ANOTHER WINDY COLD DAY ESPECIALLY N OF HWY 6
WHERE TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S...

ALOFT: THE LONGWAVES WERE COMPRISED OF AN ERN USA TROF AND A W
COAST RIDGE. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH A BROAD RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WRN USA. THIS MEANS
NW FLOW AND SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES HERE ON THE PLAINS.

SURFACE: THE CLIPPER LOW WAS OVER WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL DEPART THE REGION TO THE SE TODAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRES WILL SLIDE SE IN ITS WAKE AND SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ITS
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

TODAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF CLOUD COVER
CRESTING THE RIDGE AND HEADING SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.
THE BIGGEST COMPLICATION IN THIS FCST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
TODAY. BELIEVE THE DAY WILL AVERAGE OUT M/CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL
BE TIMES WHEN SOME AREAS TURN P/CLOUDY AND TEMPORARILY SEE A
LITTLE EXTRA SUN.

WIND: THE GREATEST PRES RISES AND PRES GRADIENT WILL MOVE THRU IN
THE 6AM-12PM TIME FRAME. THE LOW-LVL WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONGEST
AT 12Z AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DRIFT E. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/HRRR SHOW INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPANSION WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING/DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF 35-40 KTS
FROM 1500 FT 12Z-15Z. SO BOTTOM LINE IS WINDIEST PART OF THE DAY
IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 10 AM.

CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
HOW MILD TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVERNIGHT /ABOVE FRZG/ AND THAT MOS
OFFERS HIGHS COLDER THAN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...IT
SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OVER S-CNTRL NEB...EVEN
AFTER THE BURST OF CAA IS OVER THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT FCST TO BE
ALL THAT COLD ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO AVERAGE AROUND -5C.
CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THE BIGGEST FACTOR.

TONIGHT: VARIABLE CLOUDS BUT IT PROBABLY AVERAGES OUT M/CLOUDY
AGAIN. LOW-LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS /PARTICULARLY THE WRF WITH THE NMM CORE/
BRING A STRIP OF VERY LIGHT NW-SE ORIENTED STRIP OF REFLECTIVITY
THRU S-CNTRL NEB IN THE 03Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS DUE TO ITS
MICROPHYSICS SCHEME WHICH CAN BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AT TIMES. FCST
SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A SATURATED LAYER FROM 5-10K FT...BUT NO ICE IS
FCST IN-CLOUD. SO FCST REMAINS DRY WITH NO MENTION OF FLURRIES.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET EVEN FOR A BRIEF TIME. SO USED CONSENSUS OF MOS
WHICH WAS 5-6F COLDER THAN CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS. COULD GET
BURNED ON THIS IF BREAKS DON`T DEVELOP.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A
DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH STILL
COOL...AND THEN A VERY NICE WARM UP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THANKSGIVING...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GOOD AND FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE TEMPERATURE AT 850 MB SHOULD RISE FROM THE -4 TO -6C
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE BY
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING ON THE WARMER END
AND THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE COOLER END. THE SFC WIND WILL ALSO TURN
SOUTHERLY WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WARMING...WHILE BEING LIGHT ENOUGH
TO NOT BE OVERLY UNCOMFORTABLE AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...IT WILL
STILL FEEL COOL OUT THERE FOR YOUR THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S EAST AND
NORTH OF THE TRI CITIES...TO AS WARM AS 50 DEGREES IN THE BEAVER
CITY NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NICEST DAYS OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD BE THESE TWO DAYS. THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL WITH THE REAL COLD AIR LOCKED UP OVER CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEING VERY NICE DAYS WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THE TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL LIKELY CLIMB FROM THE 2 TO 8C RANGE ON THURSDAY...INTO THE 11
TO 16C RANGE ON FRIDAY...AND TO AROUND 16 TO 18C BY SATURDAY
INDICATIVE OF THE WARMER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE SFC
WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE WEST. ALL IN ALL
EXPECT TWO VERY NICE DAYS WITH HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH DAYS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR FULL
DIURNAL HEATING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS GOOD FORECAST AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE AROUND 40F. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FALL THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS. IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO NO SNOW IS
EXPECTED...BUT IT WILL BE COLD. THANKFULLY THE COLD AIR SHOULD
ONLY LAST INTO MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BY TUESDAY. THE
IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ON SUNDAY IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SO IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE A NICE DAY.
SFC WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP HIGHS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 40S TO PERHAPS EVEN 50 OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH VARIABLE MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 4K AND 9K
FT THRU 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 33 KTS AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED: MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND
BREAK-UP OF THE MVFR STRATOCU BY 18Z. NW WINDS GUST UP TO 35 KTS
BEFORE 18Z THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED EVE: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 10K FT. LIGHT WINDS BECOME NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KOAX 260835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. A MIX
OF RA/SN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP SFC TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE AREA...AND HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH
KOFK. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GUST AT OR ABOVE 30KTS AND
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AT 08Z. AREA
OF PRECIP ABOUT READY TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR COMING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST STATIONS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT
08Z. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TREND
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD INTO THE
AREA. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AREA
THEN DRY BUT COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
LINGERS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG WARMING STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPS...BUT COLD FRONT POISED ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. BORDER
FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WARM AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY ON SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE IN TRENDS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. A MIX
OF RA/SN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP SFC TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE AREA...AND HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH
KOFK. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GUST AT OR ABOVE 30KTS AND
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KGID 260546
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
120-140KT JET STREAK NEAR 200MB EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A ~100KT JET STREAK
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 200MB JET STREAK
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS PROMOTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA...OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 500MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND IS PROMOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
KUEX INDICATES PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING
THE SURFACE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...OVERALL OUR CWA IS CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...1KM WRF-NMM AND 1KM WRF-
ARW ALL SUGGEST THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SNOW FLURRY
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

AS OF 03Z THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW INTO OUR CWA...AND THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN INCREASING SURFACE
WIND POST-FROPA HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING ABOVE ~20KTS AND
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS MAY BE THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. THERE
WAS CONCERN EARLIER TODAY THAT A DEVELOPING 40-50KT WIND FIELD
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE A HEFTY GUST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT US FROM ANY SUCH GUST POTENTIAL. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO
DECREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH VARIABLE MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 4K AND 9K
FT THRU 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 33 KTS AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED: MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND
BREAK-UP OF THE MVFR STRATOCU BY 18Z. NW WINDS GUST UP TO 35 KTS
BEFORE 18Z THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED EVE: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 10K FT. LIGHT WINDS BECOMINE
NE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 260546
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
120-140KT JET STREAK NEAR 200MB EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A ~100KT JET STREAK
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 200MB JET STREAK
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS PROMOTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA...OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 500MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND IS PROMOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
KUEX INDICATES PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING
THE SURFACE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...OVERALL OUR CWA IS CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...1KM WRF-NMM AND 1KM WRF-
ARW ALL SUGGEST THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SNOW FLURRY
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

AS OF 03Z THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW INTO OUR CWA...AND THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN INCREASING SURFACE
WIND POST-FROPA HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING ABOVE ~20KTS AND
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS MAY BE THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. THERE
WAS CONCERN EARLIER TODAY THAT A DEVELOPING 40-50KT WIND FIELD
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE A HEFTY GUST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT US FROM ANY SUCH GUST POTENTIAL. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO
DECREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH VARIABLE MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 4K AND 9K
FT THRU 10Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 33 KTS AFTER A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED: MVFR CIGS THRU THE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AND
BREAK-UP OF THE MVFR STRATOCU BY 18Z. NW WINDS GUST UP TO 35 KTS
BEFORE 18Z THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

WED EVE: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS AROUND 10K FT. LIGHT WINDS BECOMINE
NE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260527
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. A MIX
OF RA/SN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP SFC TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE AREA...AND HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH
KOFK. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GUST AT OR ABOVE 30KTS AND
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260527
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. A MIX
OF RA/SN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP SFC TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE AREA...AND HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH
KOFK. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GUST AT OR ABOVE 30KTS AND
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260527
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. A MIX
OF RA/SN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP SFC TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE AREA...AND HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH
KOFK. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GUST AT OR ABOVE 30KTS AND
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 260527
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. A MIX
OF RA/SN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP SFC TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH THE AREA...AND HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH
KOFK. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GUST AT OR ABOVE 30KTS AND
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 260519 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1119 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...A 70 TO 110KT
JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM BROWNSVILLE TX...NE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEST OF THE
TROUGH...50 TO 100 METER HT RISES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS MORNING. OVER WESTERN CANADA...A NICE SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT
ACROSS SRN ALBERTA AND SRN SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SFC LOW. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST INTO SERN ND WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING NW OF
THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA. ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NWRN CONUS PER WV
IMAGERY...AND THIS HAS LED TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY. AS OF 2 PM CST...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 40 AT THEDFORD TO 47 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
INITIAL TROUGH HAS SPARKED A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ACROSS
NW NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST MORE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER A 20 PLUS DEGREE T/TD SPREAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A DRY LOWER LEVEL HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND. TOP
DOWN SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT...AS SFC TEMPS COOL...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS N CENTRAL...WITH A SECOND WAVE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE
PRIMARY P TYPE AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S THEN 20S AND 850MB TEMPS
BELOW ZERO. COULD BRIEFLY SEE A MIX AS SFC TEMPS START IN THE LOWER
40S. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE OF NW WINDS BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONT. LOCAL GUSTS AT TIMES TO 30 TO 40 MPH.

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DRY AIR GETS DRAW IN
FROM THE WEST. CAA WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW
AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SW. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE
MORNING THEN DECREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE FZDZ/LIGHT PCPN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT A FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT LIFTS OVER AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
FROM WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODEL LAYER RH FROM H850 TO H900 IS DECENT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WEDS NIGHT. LOOKING AT CROSS
SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THE THERMAL
PROFILE IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING PCPN THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER...RH/S IN THE H850 TO H900 LAYER NEVER SATURATE
DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY FAVORABLE LIFT IN THIS MOIST LAYER. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PCPN OR FZDZ WEDS NIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ADVISE THE
ONCOMING SHIFT TO WATCH THIS HOWEVER AS TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEST OF THE
EXITING WARM FRONT WITH A NICE WARMUP ON TAP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER EAST...LATER TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S...WITH NEAR
60 POSSIBLE AROUND IMPERIAL. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A TAD BASED ON THE
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS LED TO LOWS IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS AROUND 20 IN THE PLATTE VALLEY. ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST AND MAY APPROACH 70 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WERE TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE INHERITED
FORECAST BASED ON HIGHER H85 TEMPS IN THIS MORNINGS GFS AND NAM
RUNS.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG RANGE PERIODS...AS THE TIMING OF
AN ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IS STILL IN DOUBT. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS MODEL
TREND IS IN CONTRAST WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THESE RESPECTIVE
MODELS...AS THE GFS WAS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. THE MAIN RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS BETWEEN THIS
MORNINGS AND LAST NIGHTS RUN IS THE NEW GFS DROPS ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY MORNING...LIFTING IT NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO THIS
LEADS TO CONTINUED DOUBTS ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED BY PEAK
HEATING SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DIDN`T MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FCST ON SATURDAY. ATTM PROPOSED FCST HAS HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ATTM...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE A DRY ONE AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH 30S FOR MONDAY.
READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS EAST OF A WEST CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS SD MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT AND COLD AIR BEHIND IT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY NORTH.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z-17Z WEDNESDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER.

LOCAL MVFR IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 15Z. ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LOWERING CIGS
MOMENTARILY TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN NEB AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THESE LOWER CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 260519 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1119 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...A 70 TO 110KT
JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM BROWNSVILLE TX...NE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEST OF THE
TROUGH...50 TO 100 METER HT RISES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS MORNING. OVER WESTERN CANADA...A NICE SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT
ACROSS SRN ALBERTA AND SRN SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SFC LOW. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST INTO SERN ND WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING NW OF
THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA. ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NWRN CONUS PER WV
IMAGERY...AND THIS HAS LED TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY. AS OF 2 PM CST...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 40 AT THEDFORD TO 47 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
INITIAL TROUGH HAS SPARKED A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ACROSS
NW NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST MORE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER A 20 PLUS DEGREE T/TD SPREAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A DRY LOWER LEVEL HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND. TOP
DOWN SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT...AS SFC TEMPS COOL...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS N CENTRAL...WITH A SECOND WAVE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE
PRIMARY P TYPE AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S THEN 20S AND 850MB TEMPS
BELOW ZERO. COULD BRIEFLY SEE A MIX AS SFC TEMPS START IN THE LOWER
40S. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE OF NW WINDS BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONT. LOCAL GUSTS AT TIMES TO 30 TO 40 MPH.

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DRY AIR GETS DRAW IN
FROM THE WEST. CAA WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW
AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SW. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE
MORNING THEN DECREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE FZDZ/LIGHT PCPN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT A FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT LIFTS OVER AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
FROM WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODEL LAYER RH FROM H850 TO H900 IS DECENT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WEDS NIGHT. LOOKING AT CROSS
SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THE THERMAL
PROFILE IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING PCPN THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER...RH/S IN THE H850 TO H900 LAYER NEVER SATURATE
DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY FAVORABLE LIFT IN THIS MOIST LAYER. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PCPN OR FZDZ WEDS NIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ADVISE THE
ONCOMING SHIFT TO WATCH THIS HOWEVER AS TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEST OF THE
EXITING WARM FRONT WITH A NICE WARMUP ON TAP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER EAST...LATER TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S...WITH NEAR
60 POSSIBLE AROUND IMPERIAL. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A TAD BASED ON THE
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS LED TO LOWS IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS AROUND 20 IN THE PLATTE VALLEY. ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST AND MAY APPROACH 70 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WERE TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE INHERITED
FORECAST BASED ON HIGHER H85 TEMPS IN THIS MORNINGS GFS AND NAM
RUNS.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG RANGE PERIODS...AS THE TIMING OF
AN ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IS STILL IN DOUBT. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS MODEL
TREND IS IN CONTRAST WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THESE RESPECTIVE
MODELS...AS THE GFS WAS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. THE MAIN RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS BETWEEN THIS
MORNINGS AND LAST NIGHTS RUN IS THE NEW GFS DROPS ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY MORNING...LIFTING IT NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO THIS
LEADS TO CONTINUED DOUBTS ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED BY PEAK
HEATING SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DIDN`T MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FCST ON SATURDAY. ATTM PROPOSED FCST HAS HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ATTM...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE A DRY ONE AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH 30S FOR MONDAY.
READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS EAST OF A WEST CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS SD MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT AND COLD AIR BEHIND IT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY NORTH.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z-17Z WEDNESDAY WITH VFR DEVELOPING ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER.

LOCAL MVFR IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 15Z. ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LOWERING CIGS
MOMENTARILY TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY EVENING...MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN NEB AS A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THESE LOWER CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KGID 260349
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
120-140KT JET STREAK NEAR 200MB EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A ~100KT JET STREAK
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 200MB JET STREAK
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS PROMOTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA...OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 500MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND IS PROMOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
KUEX INDICATES PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING
THE SURFACE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...OVERALL OUR CWA IS CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...1KM WRF-NMM AND 1KM WRF-
ARW ALL SUGGEST THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SNOW FLURRY
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

AS OF 03Z THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW INTO OUR CWA...AND THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN INCREASING SURFACE
WIND POST-FROPA HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING ABOVE ~20KTS AND
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS MAY BE THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. THERE
WAS CONCERN EARLIER TODAY THAT A DEVELOPING 40-50KT WIND FIELD
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE A HEFTY GUST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT US FROM ANY SUCH GUST POTENTIAL. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO
DECREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CEILING NEAR 7000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ONE SET OF
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED AT TIMES
TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER SETS OF
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A VERY
STRONG SURFACE WIND THROUGH THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 24KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 34KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 260349
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
120-140KT JET STREAK NEAR 200MB EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A ~100KT JET STREAK
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 200MB JET STREAK
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS PROMOTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA...OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 500MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND IS PROMOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
KUEX INDICATES PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING
THE SURFACE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...OVERALL OUR CWA IS CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...1KM WRF-NMM AND 1KM WRF-
ARW ALL SUGGEST THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SNOW FLURRY
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

AS OF 03Z THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW INTO OUR CWA...AND THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN INCREASING SURFACE
WIND POST-FROPA HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING ABOVE ~20KTS AND
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS MAY BE THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. THERE
WAS CONCERN EARLIER TODAY THAT A DEVELOPING 40-50KT WIND FIELD
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE A HEFTY GUST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT US FROM ANY SUCH GUST POTENTIAL. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO
DECREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CEILING NEAR 7000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ONE SET OF
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED AT TIMES
TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER SETS OF
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A VERY
STRONG SURFACE WIND THROUGH THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 24KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 34KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 260349
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
120-140KT JET STREAK NEAR 200MB EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A ~100KT JET STREAK
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 200MB JET STREAK
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS PROMOTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA...OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 500MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND IS PROMOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
KUEX INDICATES PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING
THE SURFACE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...OVERALL OUR CWA IS CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...1KM WRF-NMM AND 1KM WRF-
ARW ALL SUGGEST THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SNOW FLURRY
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

AS OF 03Z THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW INTO OUR CWA...AND THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN INCREASING SURFACE
WIND POST-FROPA HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING ABOVE ~20KTS AND
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS MAY BE THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. THERE
WAS CONCERN EARLIER TODAY THAT A DEVELOPING 40-50KT WIND FIELD
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE A HEFTY GUST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT US FROM ANY SUCH GUST POTENTIAL. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO
DECREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CEILING NEAR 7000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ONE SET OF
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED AT TIMES
TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER SETS OF
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A VERY
STRONG SURFACE WIND THROUGH THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 24KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 34KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 260349
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

JUST A FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAKS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
120-140KT JET STREAK NEAR 200MB EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A ~100KT JET STREAK
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE 200MB JET STREAK
IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...THUS PROMOTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION...PER REGIONAL RADAR DATA...OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 500MB
JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND IS PROMOTING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
KUEX INDICATES PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING
THE SURFACE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...OVERALL OUR CWA IS CAUGHT
IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN...1KM WRF-NMM AND 1KM WRF-
ARW ALL SUGGEST THIS IS A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SNOW FLURRY
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...OPTED TO
GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

AS OF 03Z THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW INTO OUR CWA...AND THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE
NOTED FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN INCREASING SURFACE
WIND POST-FROPA HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...BUT NOTHING ABOVE ~20KTS AND
GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THIS MAY BE THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND INTENSITY ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS WELL. THERE
WAS CONCERN EARLIER TODAY THAT A DEVELOPING 40-50KT WIND FIELD
NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PROMOTE A HEFTY GUST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE
OVERNIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC INVERSION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT US FROM ANY SUCH GUST POTENTIAL. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO
DECREASE THE FORECAST WIND SPEED ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CEILING NEAR 7000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ONE SET OF
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED AT TIMES
TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER SETS OF
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A VERY
STRONG SURFACE WIND THROUGH THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 24KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 34KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 252348
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
548 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE AREA...INCLUDING KOFK AND KOMA. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN LATER
THIS EVENING AT KOFK AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AS WELL...TURNING ANY -RA OVER
TO -SN. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 252324 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
524 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...A 70 TO 110KT
JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM BROWNSVILLE TX...NE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEST OF THE
TROUGH...50 TO 100 METER HT RISES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS MORNING. OVER WESTERN CANADA...A NICE SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT
ACROSS SRN ALBERTA AND SRN SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SFC LOW. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST INTO SERN ND WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING NW OF
THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA. ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NWRN CONUS PER WV
IMAGERY...AND THIS HAS LED TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY. AS OF 2 PM CST...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 40 AT THEDFORD TO 47 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
INITIAL TROUGH HAS SPARKED A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ACROSS
NW NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST MORE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER A 20 PLUS DEGREE T/TD SPREAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A DRY LOWER LEVEL HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND. TOP
DOWN SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT...AS SFC TEMPS COOL...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS N CENTRAL...WITH A SECOND WAVE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE
PRIMARY P TYPE AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S THEN 20S AND 850MB TEMPS
BELOW ZERO. COULD BRIEFLY SEE A MIX AS SFC TEMPS START IN THE LOWER
40S. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE OF NW WINDS BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONT. LOCAL GUSTS AT TIMES TO 30 TO 40 MPH.

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DRY AIR GETS DRAW IN
FROM THE WEST. CAA WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW
AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SW. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE
MORNING THEN DECREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE FZDZ/LIGHT PCPN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT A FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT LIFTS OVER AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
FROM WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODEL LAYER RH FROM H850 TO H900 IS DECENT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WEDS NIGHT. LOOKING AT CROSS
SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THE THERMAL
PROFILE IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING PCPN THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER...RH/S IN THE H850 TO H900 LAYER NEVER SATURATE
DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY FAVORABLE LIFT IN THIS MOIST LAYER. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PCPN OR FZDZ WEDS NIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ADVISE THE
ONCOMING SHIFT TO WATCH THIS HOWEVER AS TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEST OF THE
EXITING WARM FRONT WITH A NICE WARMUP ON TAP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER EAST...LATER TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S...WITH NEAR
60 POSSIBLE AROUND IMPERIAL. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A TAD BASED ON THE
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS LED TO LOWS IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS AROUND 20 IN THE PLATTE VALLEY. ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST AND MAY APPROACH 70 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WERE TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE INHERITED
FORECAST BASED ON HIGHER H85 TEMPS IN THIS MORNINGS GFS AND NAM
RUNS.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG RANGE PERIODS...AS THE TIMING OF
AN ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IS STILL IN DOUBT. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS MODEL
TREND IS IN CONTRAST WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THESE RESPECTIVE
MODELS...AS THE GFS WAS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. THE MAIN RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS BETWEEN THIS
MORNINGS AND LAST NIGHTS RUN IS THE NEW GFS DROPS ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY MORNING...LIFTING IT NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO THIS
LEADS TO CONTINUED DOUBTS ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED BY PEAK
HEATING SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DIDN`T MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FCST ON SATURDAY. ATTM PROPOSED FCST HAS HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ATTM...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE A DRY ONE AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH 30S FOR MONDAY.
READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS EAST OF A WEST CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

INDICATIONS ON RADAR...THE NAM...HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN SNOW WOULD OCCUR ACROSS WRN
NEB TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF SNOW SPREADS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 15Z-17Z WITH VFR DEVELOPING
ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 252324 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
524 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...A 70 TO 110KT
JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM BROWNSVILLE TX...NE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEST OF THE
TROUGH...50 TO 100 METER HT RISES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS MORNING. OVER WESTERN CANADA...A NICE SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT
ACROSS SRN ALBERTA AND SRN SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SFC LOW. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST INTO SERN ND WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING NW OF
THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA. ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NWRN CONUS PER WV
IMAGERY...AND THIS HAS LED TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY. AS OF 2 PM CST...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 40 AT THEDFORD TO 47 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
INITIAL TROUGH HAS SPARKED A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ACROSS
NW NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST MORE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER A 20 PLUS DEGREE T/TD SPREAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A DRY LOWER LEVEL HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND. TOP
DOWN SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT...AS SFC TEMPS COOL...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS N CENTRAL...WITH A SECOND WAVE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE
PRIMARY P TYPE AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S THEN 20S AND 850MB TEMPS
BELOW ZERO. COULD BRIEFLY SEE A MIX AS SFC TEMPS START IN THE LOWER
40S. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE OF NW WINDS BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONT. LOCAL GUSTS AT TIMES TO 30 TO 40 MPH.

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DRY AIR GETS DRAW IN
FROM THE WEST. CAA WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW
AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SW. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE
MORNING THEN DECREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE FZDZ/LIGHT PCPN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT A FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT LIFTS OVER AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
FROM WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODEL LAYER RH FROM H850 TO H900 IS DECENT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WEDS NIGHT. LOOKING AT CROSS
SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THE THERMAL
PROFILE IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING PCPN THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER...RH/S IN THE H850 TO H900 LAYER NEVER SATURATE
DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY FAVORABLE LIFT IN THIS MOIST LAYER. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PCPN OR FZDZ WEDS NIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ADVISE THE
ONCOMING SHIFT TO WATCH THIS HOWEVER AS TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEST OF THE
EXITING WARM FRONT WITH A NICE WARMUP ON TAP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER EAST...LATER TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S...WITH NEAR
60 POSSIBLE AROUND IMPERIAL. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A TAD BASED ON THE
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS LED TO LOWS IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS AROUND 20 IN THE PLATTE VALLEY. ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST AND MAY APPROACH 70 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WERE TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE INHERITED
FORECAST BASED ON HIGHER H85 TEMPS IN THIS MORNINGS GFS AND NAM
RUNS.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG RANGE PERIODS...AS THE TIMING OF
AN ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IS STILL IN DOUBT. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS MODEL
TREND IS IN CONTRAST WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THESE RESPECTIVE
MODELS...AS THE GFS WAS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. THE MAIN RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS BETWEEN THIS
MORNINGS AND LAST NIGHTS RUN IS THE NEW GFS DROPS ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY MORNING...LIFTING IT NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO THIS
LEADS TO CONTINUED DOUBTS ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED BY PEAK
HEATING SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DIDN`T MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FCST ON SATURDAY. ATTM PROPOSED FCST HAS HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ATTM...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE A DRY ONE AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH 30S FOR MONDAY.
READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS EAST OF A WEST CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

INDICATIONS ON RADAR...THE NAM...HRRR AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN SNOW WOULD OCCUR ACROSS WRN
NEB TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF SNOW SPREADS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 15Z-17Z WITH VFR DEVELOPING
ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KGID 252315
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CEILING NEAR 7000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ONE SET OF
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED AT TIMES
TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER SETS OF
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A VERY
STRONG SURFACE WIND THROUGH THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 24KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 34KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT




000
FXUS63 KGID 252315
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVERCAST TO BROKEN SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CEILING NEAR 7000FT AGL
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ONE SET OF
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN MVFR CEILING WILL BE REALIZED AT TIMES
TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER SETS OF
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT EITHER TAF SITE IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A VERY
STRONG SURFACE WIND THROUGH THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...SUSTAINED AT
AROUND 24KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 34KTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...BRYANT



000
FXUS63 KGID 252128
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE WEATHER WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY/TONIGHT AND CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. NW WINDS INCREASE AND
WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT
EXPECTED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KGID 252128
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE WEATHER WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY/TONIGHT AND CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. NW WINDS INCREASE AND
WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT
EXPECTED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KGID 252128
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE WEATHER WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY/TONIGHT AND CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. NW WINDS INCREASE AND
WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT
EXPECTED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KGID 252128
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON IMPACTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF CLIPPER AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 160KT H3 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT DRIVING A CLIPPER SYSTEM FM THE DAKOTAS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEB/KS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION USHERING IN COLDER AIR ABOARD GUSTY NW
WINDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...MODELS ARE STILL HIT
OR MISS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE.  THE WRF REMAINS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT IN GENERAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
SUGGEST DECENT CHCS FOR ANOTHER LIGHT PCPN EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.  IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET/CLIPPER...CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE TOWARD 00Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING/FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BEHIND THE WAVE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
HAVE KEPT PCPN TYPE AS LIQUID INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...THEN AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT...A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX OR BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ENSEMBLE DATA
INDICATES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION ATTM.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOTICEABLY STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT WITH FROPA.  MODELS INDICATE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3MB
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES OF 2 TO
4MB WEDNESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS.
GIVEN THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BY 06Z...REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD EVENING.

WINDS SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPS TONIGHT...BUT IN CAA
WEDNESDAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 30S/LOW 40S
N/S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH THE PATTERN TO START OFF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE STRONGEST CORRIDOR SLIDING FURTHER
E/NE OF THE CWA. SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES TO COME CLOSE TO THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO
THAT JET STREAK...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE DRY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION. AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS SLIDING EAST...IT IS LOSING AMPLITUDE...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS START OUT LIGHT...BUT
ALREADY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED AS THE
CWA GETS SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SO
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE GOOD FOR TRAVELING...DRY
CONDITIONS...VARIABLE SKY COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY...AND TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE MAV
GUIDANCE...GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NE TO LOWER 50S IN THE
SW.

GETTING TO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
TIME...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST. STILL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MODELS JUST NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND FROM THURSDAY OF A WARMING AIR MASS PUSHING FURTHER EAST ONTO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PAC NW EARLY ON SATURDAY WILL BE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DOWNSLOPING W/SW WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR IN
PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 50S/60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THAT COLD FRONT IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO
WHEN THE EC/GFS WERENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT...THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF THE FRONT/COLDER AIR...AND THUS IS QUITE
A BIT COLDER FOR HIGHS. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST IS POSSIBLE...NOT GOING TO BUY
FULL IN TO THE GFS UNTIL IT HAS SOME MORE MODEL SUPPORT...SO STILL
HAVE 50S/60S IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. NOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE SOLIDLY
AFFECTED BY THE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING...AND COULD BE 25 OR SO DEGREES COLDER THAN SAT IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SHORT STAY OF THAT COLDER AIR MASS THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE STUCK IN
THE 30S...TEMPS FOR TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO THE
40S/50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE WEATHER WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY/TONIGHT AND CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. NW WINDS INCREASE AND
WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT
EXPECTED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 252106
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN NEBR LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NEBR THRU
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING. PRECIP ON
NRN END SHOULD CHANGE PRIMARILY TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
OMAHA/NORFOLK NEAR THAT LINE MARKING ALL SNOW VS. A MIX.
VISIBILITIES IN THE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR
LEVELS...AND CIGS MIGHT AS WELL. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LINGER
BEHIND LOW WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 252106
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN NEBR LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NEBR THRU
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING. PRECIP ON
NRN END SHOULD CHANGE PRIMARILY TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
OMAHA/NORFOLK NEAR THAT LINE MARKING ALL SNOW VS. A MIX.
VISIBILITIES IN THE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR
LEVELS...AND CIGS MIGHT AS WELL. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LINGER
BEHIND LOW WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 252106
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN NEBR LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NEBR THRU
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING. PRECIP ON
NRN END SHOULD CHANGE PRIMARILY TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
OMAHA/NORFOLK NEAR THAT LINE MARKING ALL SNOW VS. A MIX.
VISIBILITIES IN THE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR
LEVELS...AND CIGS MIGHT AS WELL. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LINGER
BEHIND LOW WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 252106
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES-MS RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGIONS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS AT 20Z OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY.  UP TO 145KT JET WAS REINFORCING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WHILE UP TO 170KT JET EXTENDED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  850MB LOW
WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...AND A FEW TROUGHS UPSTREAM IN CANADA/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN SD/WESTERN NEB TOWARD THE KS/CO BORDER.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.  WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A
WARM START AND BE SLOW TO FALL NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT
ARRIVES.  REGIONAL 12Z OBS INDICATE A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TOP-DOWN
SATURATION TO OVERCOME THIS EVENING.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN IN NORTHEAST NEB AROUND 00-03Z...BEGINNING PRIMARILY AS RAIN
BEFORE WET-BULBING TEMPERATURES DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE TO
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX LATER IN THE EVENING...AND LIKELY SNOW AFTER
06Z.  AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING...EXPECT SIMILAR TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO
SNOW...WITH SNOW REACHING WESTERN IA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT IN EASTERN NEB...WITH A GRADIENT IN WESTERN
IA TO HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.  FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS RANGE FROM JUST A TENTH OR TWO IN EASTERN
NEB...TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE EASTERNMOST CWA.  AMOUNTS ARE
SENSITIVE TO THAT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IA IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW
MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT.

IN WAKE OF THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR FALLING ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS...IT WILL FEEL LIKE A BLUSTERY DAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF WELL INTO THE TEENS...BUT RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MILDER READINGS.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLACK FRIDAY EARLY-MORNING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-20S AND TEMPERATURES RISING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER SUSTAINED WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY ZONAL JET.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER IS PROGGED TO DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.  STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AGAIN...RETURN FLOW INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RECOVERING TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN NEBR LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NEBR THRU
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING. PRECIP ON
NRN END SHOULD CHANGE PRIMARILY TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
OMAHA/NORFOLK NEAR THAT LINE MARKING ALL SNOW VS. A MIX.
VISIBILITIES IN THE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR
LEVELS...AND CIGS MIGHT AS WELL. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LINGER
BEHIND LOW WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KLBF 252057
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...A 70 TO 110KT
JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM BROWNSVILLE TX...NE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEST OF THE
TROUGH...50 TO 100 METER HT RISES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS MORNING. OVER WESTERN CANADA...A NICE SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT
ACROSS SRN ALBERTA AND SRN SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SFC LOW. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST INTO SERN ND WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING NW OF
THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA. ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NWRN CONUS PER WV
IMAGERY...AND THIS HAS LED TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY. AS OF 2 PM CST...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 40 AT THEDFORD TO 47 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
INITIAL TROUGH HAS SPARKED A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ACROSS
NW NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST MORE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER A 20 PLUS DEGREE T/TD SPREAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A DRY LOWER LEVEL HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND. TOP
DOWN SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT...AS SFC TEMPS COOL...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS N CENTRAL...WITH A SECOND WAVE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE
PRIMARY P TYPE AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S THEN 20S AND 850MB TEMPS
BELOW ZERO. COULD BRIEFLY SEE A MIX AS SFC TEMPS START IN THE LOWER
40S. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE OF NW WINDS BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONT. LOCAL GUSTS AT TIMES TO 30 TO 40 MPH.

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DRY AIR GETS DRAW IN
FROM THE WEST. CAA WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW
AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SW. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE
MORNING THEN DECREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE FZDZ/LIGHT PCPN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT A FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT LIFTS OVER AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
FROM WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODEL LAYER RH FROM H850 TO H900 IS DECENT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WEDS NIGHT. LOOKING AT CROSS
SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THE THERMAL
PROFILE IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING PCPN THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER...RH/S IN THE H850 TO H900 LAYER NEVER SATURATE
DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY FAVORABLE LIFT IN THIS MOIST LAYER. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PCPN OR FZDZ WEDS NIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ADVISE THE
ONCOMING SHIFT TO WATCH THIS HOWEVER AS TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEST OF THE
EXITING WARM FRONT WITH A NICE WARMUP ON TAP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER EAST...LATER TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S...WITH NEAR
60 POSSIBLE AROUND IMPERIAL. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A TAD BASED ON THE
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS LED TO LOWS IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS AROUND 20 IN THE PLATTE VALLEY. ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST AND MAY APPROACH 70 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WERE TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE INHERITED
FORECAST BASED ON HIGHER H85 TEMPS IN THIS MORNINGS GFS AND NAM
RUNS.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG RANGE PERIODS...AS THE TIMING OF
AN ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IS STILL IN DOUBT. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS MODEL
TREND IS IN CONTRAST WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THESE RESPECTIVE
MODELS...AS THE GFS WAS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. THE MAIN RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS BETWEEN THIS
MORNINGS AND LAST NIGHTS RUN IS THE NEW GFS DROPS ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY MORNING...LIFTING IT NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO THIS
LEADS TO CONTINUED DOUBTS ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED BY PEAK
HEATING SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DIDN`T MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FCST ON SATURDAY. ATTM PROPOSED FCST HAS HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ATTM...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE A DRY ONE AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH 30S FOR MONDAY.
READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS EAST OF A WEST CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
QUICKLY EXIT EARLY TOMORROW. LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...INITIALLY
SOME AREAS MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONTAL...INCLUDING KVTN AREA. MID LEVELS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD END MOST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY FOLLOWS AND WILL KEEP SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW ZONES...WEST OF KVTN. NW
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...GUSTING AT TIMES TO AROUND 25 KTS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MORNING THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND
WINDS SHOULD FALL TO LESS THAN 15 KTS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 252057
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...A 70 TO 110KT
JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM BROWNSVILLE TX...NE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEST OF THE
TROUGH...50 TO 100 METER HT RISES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS MORNING. OVER WESTERN CANADA...A NICE SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT
ACROSS SRN ALBERTA AND SRN SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SFC LOW. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST INTO SERN ND WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING NW OF
THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA. ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NWRN CONUS PER WV
IMAGERY...AND THIS HAS LED TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY. AS OF 2 PM CST...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 40 AT THEDFORD TO 47 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
INITIAL TROUGH HAS SPARKED A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ACROSS
NW NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST MORE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER A 20 PLUS DEGREE T/TD SPREAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A DRY LOWER LEVEL HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND. TOP
DOWN SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT...AS SFC TEMPS COOL...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS N CENTRAL...WITH A SECOND WAVE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE
PRIMARY P TYPE AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S THEN 20S AND 850MB TEMPS
BELOW ZERO. COULD BRIEFLY SEE A MIX AS SFC TEMPS START IN THE LOWER
40S. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE OF NW WINDS BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONT. LOCAL GUSTS AT TIMES TO 30 TO 40 MPH.

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DRY AIR GETS DRAW IN
FROM THE WEST. CAA WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW
AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SW. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE
MORNING THEN DECREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE FZDZ/LIGHT PCPN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT A FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT LIFTS OVER AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
FROM WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODEL LAYER RH FROM H850 TO H900 IS DECENT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WEDS NIGHT. LOOKING AT CROSS
SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THE THERMAL
PROFILE IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING PCPN THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER...RH/S IN THE H850 TO H900 LAYER NEVER SATURATE
DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY FAVORABLE LIFT IN THIS MOIST LAYER. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PCPN OR FZDZ WEDS NIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ADVISE THE
ONCOMING SHIFT TO WATCH THIS HOWEVER AS TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEST OF THE
EXITING WARM FRONT WITH A NICE WARMUP ON TAP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER EAST...LATER TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S...WITH NEAR
60 POSSIBLE AROUND IMPERIAL. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A TAD BASED ON THE
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS LED TO LOWS IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS AROUND 20 IN THE PLATTE VALLEY. ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST AND MAY APPROACH 70 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WERE TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE INHERITED
FORECAST BASED ON HIGHER H85 TEMPS IN THIS MORNINGS GFS AND NAM
RUNS.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG RANGE PERIODS...AS THE TIMING OF
AN ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IS STILL IN DOUBT. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS MODEL
TREND IS IN CONTRAST WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THESE RESPECTIVE
MODELS...AS THE GFS WAS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. THE MAIN RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS BETWEEN THIS
MORNINGS AND LAST NIGHTS RUN IS THE NEW GFS DROPS ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY MORNING...LIFTING IT NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO THIS
LEADS TO CONTINUED DOUBTS ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED BY PEAK
HEATING SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DIDN`T MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FCST ON SATURDAY. ATTM PROPOSED FCST HAS HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ATTM...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE A DRY ONE AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH 30S FOR MONDAY.
READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS EAST OF A WEST CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
QUICKLY EXIT EARLY TOMORROW. LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...INITIALLY
SOME AREAS MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONTAL...INCLUDING KVTN AREA. MID LEVELS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD END MOST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY FOLLOWS AND WILL KEEP SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW ZONES...WEST OF KVTN. NW
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...GUSTING AT TIMES TO AROUND 25 KTS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MORNING THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND
WINDS SHOULD FALL TO LESS THAN 15 KTS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 252057
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...A 70 TO 110KT
JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM BROWNSVILLE TX...NE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEST OF THE
TROUGH...50 TO 100 METER HT RISES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS MORNING. OVER WESTERN CANADA...A NICE SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT
ACROSS SRN ALBERTA AND SRN SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SFC LOW. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST INTO SERN ND WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING NW OF
THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA. ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NWRN CONUS PER WV
IMAGERY...AND THIS HAS LED TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY. AS OF 2 PM CST...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 40 AT THEDFORD TO 47 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
INITIAL TROUGH HAS SPARKED A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ACROSS
NW NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST MORE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER A 20 PLUS DEGREE T/TD SPREAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A DRY LOWER LEVEL HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND. TOP
DOWN SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT...AS SFC TEMPS COOL...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS N CENTRAL...WITH A SECOND WAVE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE
PRIMARY P TYPE AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S THEN 20S AND 850MB TEMPS
BELOW ZERO. COULD BRIEFLY SEE A MIX AS SFC TEMPS START IN THE LOWER
40S. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE OF NW WINDS BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONT. LOCAL GUSTS AT TIMES TO 30 TO 40 MPH.

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DRY AIR GETS DRAW IN
FROM THE WEST. CAA WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW
AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SW. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE
MORNING THEN DECREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE FZDZ/LIGHT PCPN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT A FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT LIFTS OVER AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
FROM WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODEL LAYER RH FROM H850 TO H900 IS DECENT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WEDS NIGHT. LOOKING AT CROSS
SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THE THERMAL
PROFILE IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING PCPN THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER...RH/S IN THE H850 TO H900 LAYER NEVER SATURATE
DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY FAVORABLE LIFT IN THIS MOIST LAYER. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PCPN OR FZDZ WEDS NIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ADVISE THE
ONCOMING SHIFT TO WATCH THIS HOWEVER AS TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEST OF THE
EXITING WARM FRONT WITH A NICE WARMUP ON TAP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER EAST...LATER TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S...WITH NEAR
60 POSSIBLE AROUND IMPERIAL. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A TAD BASED ON THE
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS LED TO LOWS IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS AROUND 20 IN THE PLATTE VALLEY. ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST AND MAY APPROACH 70 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WERE TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE INHERITED
FORECAST BASED ON HIGHER H85 TEMPS IN THIS MORNINGS GFS AND NAM
RUNS.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG RANGE PERIODS...AS THE TIMING OF
AN ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IS STILL IN DOUBT. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS MODEL
TREND IS IN CONTRAST WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THESE RESPECTIVE
MODELS...AS THE GFS WAS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. THE MAIN RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS BETWEEN THIS
MORNINGS AND LAST NIGHTS RUN IS THE NEW GFS DROPS ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY MORNING...LIFTING IT NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO THIS
LEADS TO CONTINUED DOUBTS ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED BY PEAK
HEATING SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DIDN`T MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FCST ON SATURDAY. ATTM PROPOSED FCST HAS HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ATTM...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE A DRY ONE AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH 30S FOR MONDAY.
READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS EAST OF A WEST CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
QUICKLY EXIT EARLY TOMORROW. LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...INITIALLY
SOME AREAS MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONTAL...INCLUDING KVTN AREA. MID LEVELS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD END MOST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY FOLLOWS AND WILL KEEP SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW ZONES...WEST OF KVTN. NW
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...GUSTING AT TIMES TO AROUND 25 KTS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MORNING THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND
WINDS SHOULD FALL TO LESS THAN 15 KTS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 252057
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
257 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...A 70 TO 110KT
JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM BROWNSVILLE TX...NE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEST OF THE
TROUGH...50 TO 100 METER HT RISES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS MORNING. OVER WESTERN CANADA...A NICE SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT
ACROSS SRN ALBERTA AND SRN SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SFC LOW. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST INTO SERN ND WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING NW OF
THE SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA. ABUNDANT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NWRN CONUS PER WV
IMAGERY...AND THIS HAS LED TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY. AS OF 2 PM CST...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 40 AT THEDFORD TO 47 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE ALBERTA CLIPPER CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
INITIAL TROUGH HAS SPARKED A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ACROSS
NW NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST MORE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER A 20 PLUS DEGREE T/TD SPREAD IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A DRY LOWER LEVEL HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND. TOP
DOWN SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT...AS SFC TEMPS COOL...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER THE FIRST
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS N CENTRAL...WITH A SECOND WAVE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE
PRIMARY P TYPE AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S THEN 20S AND 850MB TEMPS
BELOW ZERO. COULD BRIEFLY SEE A MIX AS SFC TEMPS START IN THE LOWER
40S. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE OF NW WINDS BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONT. LOCAL GUSTS AT TIMES TO 30 TO 40 MPH.

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DRY AIR GETS DRAW IN
FROM THE WEST. CAA WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW
AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE SW. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE
MORNING THEN DECREASING AS THE DAY GOES ON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MID RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGES IN THE MID RANGE ARE FZDZ/LIGHT PCPN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT A FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT LIFTS OVER AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE
FROM WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODEL LAYER RH FROM H850 TO H900 IS DECENT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WEDS NIGHT. LOOKING AT CROSS
SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...THE THERMAL
PROFILE IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING PCPN THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER...RH/S IN THE H850 TO H900 LAYER NEVER SATURATE
DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...GFS AND NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY FAVORABLE LIFT IN THIS MOIST LAYER. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PCPN OR FZDZ WEDS NIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ADVISE THE
ONCOMING SHIFT TO WATCH THIS HOWEVER AS TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEST OF THE
EXITING WARM FRONT WITH A NICE WARMUP ON TAP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER EAST...LATER TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S...WITH NEAR
60 POSSIBLE AROUND IMPERIAL. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A TAD BASED ON THE
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS LED TO LOWS IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS AROUND 20 IN THE PLATTE VALLEY. ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST AND MAY APPROACH 70 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WERE TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE INHERITED
FORECAST BASED ON HIGHER H85 TEMPS IN THIS MORNINGS GFS AND NAM
RUNS.

LONG RANGE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG RANGE PERIODS...AS THE TIMING OF
AN ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IS STILL IN DOUBT. LOOKING AT
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS MODEL
TREND IS IN CONTRAST WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THESE RESPECTIVE
MODELS...AS THE GFS WAS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. THE MAIN RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCE WITH THE GFS BETWEEN THIS
MORNINGS AND LAST NIGHTS RUN IS THE NEW GFS DROPS ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY MORNING...LIFTING IT NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO THIS
LEADS TO CONTINUED DOUBTS ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED BY PEAK
HEATING SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DIDN`T MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FCST ON SATURDAY. ATTM PROPOSED FCST HAS HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ATTM...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE A DRY ONE AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH 30S FOR MONDAY.
READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS EAST OF A WEST CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
QUICKLY EXIT EARLY TOMORROW. LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...INITIALLY
SOME AREAS MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONTAL...INCLUDING KVTN AREA. MID LEVELS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD END MOST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY FOLLOWS AND WILL KEEP SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW ZONES...WEST OF KVTN. NW
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...GUSTING AT TIMES TO AROUND 25 KTS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MORNING THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND
WINDS SHOULD FALL TO LESS THAN 15 KTS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 251801
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1201 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MONTANA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES MAINLY RANGING IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM NERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO NCTRL SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM NCTRL NEBR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING SNOW AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT
REACHES THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. POPS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO LIKELY BY MID
AFTERNOON AT VTN EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA COUNTY. CHANCE POPS TO EXTEND
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF REMAINING NCTRL NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF SWRN NEBR EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ONEILL AND BURWELL AREAS BY 00Z/26TH AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO WRN SANDHILLS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WITH ONLY NEUTRAL TO WEAK CAA...HIGHS FOR
THE BALANCE OF TODAY WILL ACTUALLY RANGE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER
40S NCTRL TO 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES NEAR MAV GUIDANCE.

NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. H85 TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -8C ACROSS VTN THOUGH ONEILL
LATE TONIGHT AND NEAR -3C AT IML. CORRESPONDING LOWS FROM THE LOWER
20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 20S FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ERN PNHDL AND NCTRL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A HYBRID OF ARCTIC AND PACIFIC AIR WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN A TREK TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL. NEGATIVES FOR GETTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
INCLUDE A DRY LAYER FROM AROUND H700 TO H600 MB INITIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LAYER DOES MOISTEN SOME LATER
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LIFT OVERALL THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY IS
WEAK...AND WHAT LIFT THERE IS REALLY ISN/T FOCUSED IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. SO WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONLY IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...VERY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THANKSGIVING
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13C
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER THANKSGIVING DAY...AND WARM
FURTHER TO AROUND 17C FRIDAY. MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE 50S
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THANKSGIVING DAY AND 60S FRIDAY.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WARMER...KEEPING
ANY ARCTIC AIR WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT H850 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS AROUND 7C
NORTH AND 13C SOUTH...SO FEEL THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH IS A PRETTY GOOD
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THOUGH THE AREA...AND A FAIRLY COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
QUICKLY EXIT EARLY TOMORROW. LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...INITIALLY
SOME AREAS MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONTAL...INCLUDING KVTN AREA. MID LEVELS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD END MOST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY FOLLOWS AND WILL KEEP SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW ZONES...WEST OF KVTN. NW
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...GUSTING AT TIMES TO AROUND 25 KTS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MORNING THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND
WINDS SHOULD FALL TO LESS THAN 15 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 251801
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1201 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MONTANA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES MAINLY RANGING IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM NERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO NCTRL SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM NCTRL NEBR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING SNOW AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT
REACHES THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. POPS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO LIKELY BY MID
AFTERNOON AT VTN EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA COUNTY. CHANCE POPS TO EXTEND
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF REMAINING NCTRL NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF SWRN NEBR EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ONEILL AND BURWELL AREAS BY 00Z/26TH AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO WRN SANDHILLS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WITH ONLY NEUTRAL TO WEAK CAA...HIGHS FOR
THE BALANCE OF TODAY WILL ACTUALLY RANGE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER
40S NCTRL TO 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES NEAR MAV GUIDANCE.

NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. H85 TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -8C ACROSS VTN THOUGH ONEILL
LATE TONIGHT AND NEAR -3C AT IML. CORRESPONDING LOWS FROM THE LOWER
20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 20S FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ERN PNHDL AND NCTRL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A HYBRID OF ARCTIC AND PACIFIC AIR WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN A TREK TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL. NEGATIVES FOR GETTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
INCLUDE A DRY LAYER FROM AROUND H700 TO H600 MB INITIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LAYER DOES MOISTEN SOME LATER
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LIFT OVERALL THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY IS
WEAK...AND WHAT LIFT THERE IS REALLY ISN/T FOCUSED IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. SO WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONLY IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...VERY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THANKSGIVING
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13C
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER THANKSGIVING DAY...AND WARM
FURTHER TO AROUND 17C FRIDAY. MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE 50S
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THANKSGIVING DAY AND 60S FRIDAY.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WARMER...KEEPING
ANY ARCTIC AIR WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT H850 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS AROUND 7C
NORTH AND 13C SOUTH...SO FEEL THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH IS A PRETTY GOOD
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THOUGH THE AREA...AND A FAIRLY COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
QUICKLY EXIT EARLY TOMORROW. LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...INITIALLY
SOME AREAS MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONTAL...INCLUDING KVTN AREA. MID LEVELS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD END MOST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY FOLLOWS AND WILL KEEP SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW ZONES...WEST OF KVTN. NW
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...GUSTING AT TIMES TO AROUND 25 KTS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MORNING THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND
WINDS SHOULD FALL TO LESS THAN 15 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK






000
FXUS63 KGID 251749
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1149 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FURTHER MONITORING OF SATELLITE TRENDS NECESSITATES INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FASTER THAN IN THE 3 AM FCST ISSUANCE. THERE IS A LOT
OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS/ALTOCU UPSTREAM AND IT IS NOT
SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF THINNING. SO SKY COVER WAS INCREASED FURTHER.

BASED ON THIS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO LOWERED 2-4F AND THAT MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH GIVEN HOW COLD TEMPS ARE RIGHT NOW. WHILE WAA WILL BE IN
PROGRESS...IT`S ALWAYS HARD TO FIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. WE NOW HAVE 43-50F WITH MID 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES VS.
45-53F WITH UPR 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES.

THE CANADIAN GEM DOES WELL IN THESE "SURPRISE" TEMP REGIMES AND IT
MAY WELL BE ONTO THIS. IT HAS 40-47F WITH 42-44F TRI-CITIES.

SUFFICE TO SAY FURTHER DOWNWARD REFINEMENTS MAY BE FORTHCOMING BY
THE DAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIP EVENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE FOLLOWED BY MORE WIND...

ALOFT: THE FLOW WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE CNTRL USA AND RIDGES JUST OFF BOTH COASTS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT...DEEPENING OVER TIME WITH A
GOOD SHOT OF QG FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT UPR-LVL JET.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ALBERTA. THIS LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER WRN IA BY DAYBREAK
WED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU TONIGHT.

TODAY: WAA WILL CONT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER. MORNING
SUN WILL RAPIDLY BE OBSCURED BY INCREASING AND DESCENDING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT CLOUDS MAY COME IN THICK
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. I.E. WE MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC
ENOUGH. THAT IS A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING HI-RES MODELING INDICATE A SWATH OF
FGEN-ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 3PM-12AM. SPRINKLES ARE MOST LIKELY ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. INCLUDED SPRINKLES S AND W OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF .01" QPF AS SOME SREF MEMBERS DO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE BEST MODEL CLUSTERING.

USED THE 05Z BIAS CORRECTED RAP FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
N. DESPITE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DWPTS/RH TODAY WITH 10F OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV/MET MOS. USED CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-
RES MODELS WHICH WERE NOT THE LOWEST BUT DID FAVOR THE DRIER MAV
MOS. THIS WILL WORK BEST OUTSIDE WHERE IT RAINS...BUT MOISTENING
FROM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DWPTS LOCALLY.

TONIGHT: SWATH OF RAIN/SPRINKLES EXITS TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG CAA KICKS IN AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A CORE OF
50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB. OUTPUT FROM THE WIND GUST TOOL SEEMED TOO
LOW SO USED GUSTS FROM A BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
/CONSRAW/. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS N OF HWY 6 BEGINNING 3 AM.
WITH 40 KTS AS LOW AS 1500 FT...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS.

P-TYPE: KEPT IT PRIMARILY RAIN/SPRINKLES EXCEPT ON THE EXTREME
NE/E FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA 07Z-08Z ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP...IF IT`S STILL FALLING BY THEN. NAM P-TYPE ALGORITHM KEEPS
IT ALL RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LEFTOVER DAYTIME BL
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. EVEN WETBULB TEMPS FAVOR RAIN
WITH +2 UP TO 1K FT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME TEMP PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 27-38F AND
30-31F IN THE TRI-CITIES. EVEN THE MOS 3-HOURLY TEMPS SUGGEST
THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS. EXPECT TWO COLD AIR OUTBREAKS...
ONE ON WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO FINISH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE
...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO WITH A LITTLE 850/700
MB MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING IN. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 0.00 QPF AND THE CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP MORE OVER NEBRASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SLOWLY START TO WARM BACK UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT. AT THE SFC...THE WIND WILL TURN TO
SOUTHERLY AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE WARMING
WILL BE GRADUAL ON THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RISE
EXPECTED OVER WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT THE WARM UP WILL INCREASE AS
WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEASTERN ZONES...TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND IN
CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST. ALL IN ALL EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE LARGELY SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT
AND BRING IT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FULL DIURNAL HEATING UNDER A
CONTINUED WARM AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD HELP ALL AREAS GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN INDICATES A FEW SPOTS
COULD HIT 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING HINGES ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT RIGHT NOW SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A GREAT
DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SNAP HITS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY DECENT FORECAST AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR
MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE ARE NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT
SNOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COLD. OUR FORECAST HIGHS BASED OFF
THE SUPERBLEND OF MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN ORD TO THE
30S ELSEWHERE AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTICALLY TOO WARM IF YOU
BELIEVE THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THERE IS A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR OUT ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE WEATHER WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY/TONIGHT AND CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. NW WINDS INCREASE AND
WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT
EXPECTED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KGID 251749
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1149 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FURTHER MONITORING OF SATELLITE TRENDS NECESSITATES INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FASTER THAN IN THE 3 AM FCST ISSUANCE. THERE IS A LOT
OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS/ALTOCU UPSTREAM AND IT IS NOT
SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF THINNING. SO SKY COVER WAS INCREASED FURTHER.

BASED ON THIS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO LOWERED 2-4F AND THAT MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH GIVEN HOW COLD TEMPS ARE RIGHT NOW. WHILE WAA WILL BE IN
PROGRESS...IT`S ALWAYS HARD TO FIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. WE NOW HAVE 43-50F WITH MID 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES VS.
45-53F WITH UPR 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES.

THE CANADIAN GEM DOES WELL IN THESE "SURPRISE" TEMP REGIMES AND IT
MAY WELL BE ONTO THIS. IT HAS 40-47F WITH 42-44F TRI-CITIES.

SUFFICE TO SAY FURTHER DOWNWARD REFINEMENTS MAY BE FORTHCOMING BY
THE DAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIP EVENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE FOLLOWED BY MORE WIND...

ALOFT: THE FLOW WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE CNTRL USA AND RIDGES JUST OFF BOTH COASTS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT...DEEPENING OVER TIME WITH A
GOOD SHOT OF QG FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT UPR-LVL JET.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ALBERTA. THIS LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER WRN IA BY DAYBREAK
WED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU TONIGHT.

TODAY: WAA WILL CONT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER. MORNING
SUN WILL RAPIDLY BE OBSCURED BY INCREASING AND DESCENDING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT CLOUDS MAY COME IN THICK
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. I.E. WE MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC
ENOUGH. THAT IS A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING HI-RES MODELING INDICATE A SWATH OF
FGEN-ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 3PM-12AM. SPRINKLES ARE MOST LIKELY ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. INCLUDED SPRINKLES S AND W OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF .01" QPF AS SOME SREF MEMBERS DO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE BEST MODEL CLUSTERING.

USED THE 05Z BIAS CORRECTED RAP FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
N. DESPITE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DWPTS/RH TODAY WITH 10F OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV/MET MOS. USED CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-
RES MODELS WHICH WERE NOT THE LOWEST BUT DID FAVOR THE DRIER MAV
MOS. THIS WILL WORK BEST OUTSIDE WHERE IT RAINS...BUT MOISTENING
FROM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DWPTS LOCALLY.

TONIGHT: SWATH OF RAIN/SPRINKLES EXITS TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG CAA KICKS IN AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A CORE OF
50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB. OUTPUT FROM THE WIND GUST TOOL SEEMED TOO
LOW SO USED GUSTS FROM A BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
/CONSRAW/. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS N OF HWY 6 BEGINNING 3 AM.
WITH 40 KTS AS LOW AS 1500 FT...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS.

P-TYPE: KEPT IT PRIMARILY RAIN/SPRINKLES EXCEPT ON THE EXTREME
NE/E FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA 07Z-08Z ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP...IF IT`S STILL FALLING BY THEN. NAM P-TYPE ALGORITHM KEEPS
IT ALL RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LEFTOVER DAYTIME BL
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. EVEN WETBULB TEMPS FAVOR RAIN
WITH +2 UP TO 1K FT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME TEMP PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 27-38F AND
30-31F IN THE TRI-CITIES. EVEN THE MOS 3-HOURLY TEMPS SUGGEST
THIS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS. EXPECT TWO COLD AIR OUTBREAKS...
ONE ON WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO FINISH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE
...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO WITH A LITTLE 850/700
MB MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING IN. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 0.00 QPF AND THE CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP MORE OVER NEBRASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SLOWLY START TO WARM BACK UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT. AT THE SFC...THE WIND WILL TURN TO
SOUTHERLY AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE WARMING
WILL BE GRADUAL ON THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RISE
EXPECTED OVER WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT THE WARM UP WILL INCREASE AS
WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEASTERN ZONES...TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND IN
CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST. ALL IN ALL EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE LARGELY SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT
AND BRING IT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FULL DIURNAL HEATING UNDER A
CONTINUED WARM AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD HELP ALL AREAS GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN INDICATES A FEW SPOTS
COULD HIT 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING HINGES ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT RIGHT NOW SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A GREAT
DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SNAP HITS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY DECENT FORECAST AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR
MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE ARE NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT
SNOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COLD. OUR FORECAST HIGHS BASED OFF
THE SUPERBLEND OF MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN ORD TO THE
30S ELSEWHERE AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTICALLY TOO WARM IF YOU
BELIEVE THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THERE IS A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR OUT ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE WEATHER WILL UNDERGO CHANGES DURING THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY/TONIGHT AND CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. NW WINDS INCREASE AND
WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT
EXPECTED. THE STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251742
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

REGION REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT 08Z WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START OFF QUITE COOL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WARM QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOW TRACK. EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

REGION WILL ENJOY FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGS A POOL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR ROLLS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR OUR AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMING IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN NEBR LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NEBR THRU
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING. PRECIP ON
NRN END SHOULD CHANGE PRIMARILY TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
OMAHA/NORFOLK NEAR THAT LINE MARKING ALL SNOW VS. A MIX.
VISIBILITIES IN THE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR
LEVELS...AND CIGS MIGHT AS WELL. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LINGER
BEHIND LOW WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK



000
FXUS63 KOAX 251742
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

REGION REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT 08Z WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START OFF QUITE COOL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WARM QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOW TRACK. EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

REGION WILL ENJOY FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGS A POOL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR ROLLS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR OUR AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMING IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN NEBR LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS ERN NEBR THRU
EARLY EVENING WITH RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING. PRECIP ON
NRN END SHOULD CHANGE PRIMARILY TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
OMAHA/NORFOLK NEAR THAT LINE MARKING ALL SNOW VS. A MIX.
VISIBILITIES IN THE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR
LEVELS...AND CIGS MIGHT AS WELL. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LINGER
BEHIND LOW WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 251210
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MONTANA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES MAINLY RANGING IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM NERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO NCTRL SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM NCTRL NEBR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING SNOW AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT
REACHES THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. POPS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO LIKELY BY MID
AFTERNOON AT VTN EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA COUNTY. CHANCE POPS TO EXTEND
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF REMAINING NCTRL NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF SWRN NEBR EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ONEILL AND BURWELL AREAS BY 00Z/26TH AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO WRN SANDHILLS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WITH ONLY NEUTRAL TO WEAK CAA...HIGHS FOR
THE BALANCE OF TODAY WILL ACTUALLY RANGE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER
40S NCTRL TO 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES NEAR MAV GUIDANCE.

NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. H85 TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -8C ACROSS VTN THOUGH ONEILL
LATE TONIGHT AND NEAR -3C AT IML. CORRESPONDING LOWS FROM THE LOWER
20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 20S FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ERN PNHDL AND NCTRL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A HYBRID OF ARCTIC AND PACIFIC AIR WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN A TREK TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL. NEGATIVES FOR GETTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
INCLUDE A DRY LAYER FROM AROUND H700 TO H600 MB INITIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LAYER DOES MOISTEN SOME LATER
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LIFT OVERALL THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY IS
WEAK...AND WHAT LIFT THERE IS REALLY ISN/T FOCUSED IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. SO WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONLY IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...VERY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THANKSGIVING
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13C
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER THANKSGIVING DAY...AND WARM
FURTHER TO AROUND 17C FRIDAY. MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE 50S
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THANKSGIVING DAY AND 60S FRIDAY.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WARMER...KEEPING
ANY ARCTIC AIR WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT H850 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS AROUND 7C
NORTH AND 13C SOUTH...SO FEEL THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH IS A PRETTY GOOD
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THOUGH THE AREA...AND A FAIRLY COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2.
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE EXPECTED FROM 21Z-02Z ONWARD IN
THIS AREA. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 251210
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MONTANA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES MAINLY RANGING IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM NERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO NCTRL SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM NCTRL NEBR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING SNOW AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT
REACHES THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. POPS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO LIKELY BY MID
AFTERNOON AT VTN EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA COUNTY. CHANCE POPS TO EXTEND
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF REMAINING NCTRL NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF SWRN NEBR EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ONEILL AND BURWELL AREAS BY 00Z/26TH AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO WRN SANDHILLS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WITH ONLY NEUTRAL TO WEAK CAA...HIGHS FOR
THE BALANCE OF TODAY WILL ACTUALLY RANGE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER
40S NCTRL TO 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES NEAR MAV GUIDANCE.

NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. H85 TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -8C ACROSS VTN THOUGH ONEILL
LATE TONIGHT AND NEAR -3C AT IML. CORRESPONDING LOWS FROM THE LOWER
20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 20S FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ERN PNHDL AND NCTRL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A HYBRID OF ARCTIC AND PACIFIC AIR WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN A TREK TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL. NEGATIVES FOR GETTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
INCLUDE A DRY LAYER FROM AROUND H700 TO H600 MB INITIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LAYER DOES MOISTEN SOME LATER
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LIFT OVERALL THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY IS
WEAK...AND WHAT LIFT THERE IS REALLY ISN/T FOCUSED IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. SO WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONLY IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...VERY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THANKSGIVING
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13C
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER THANKSGIVING DAY...AND WARM
FURTHER TO AROUND 17C FRIDAY. MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE 50S
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THANKSGIVING DAY AND 60S FRIDAY.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WARMER...KEEPING
ANY ARCTIC AIR WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT H850 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS AROUND 7C
NORTH AND 13C SOUTH...SO FEEL THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH IS A PRETTY GOOD
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THOUGH THE AREA...AND A FAIRLY COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2.
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE EXPECTED FROM 21Z-02Z ONWARD IN
THIS AREA. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG






000
FXUS63 KGID 251145
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FURTHER MONITORING OF SATELLITE TRENDS NECESSITATES INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FASTER THAN IN THE 3 AM FCST ISSUANCE. THERE IS A LOT
OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS/ALTOCU UPSTREAM AND IT IS NOT
SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF THINNING. SO SKY COVER WAS INCREASED FURTHER.

BASED ON THIS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO LOWERED 2-4F AND THAT MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH GIVEN HOW COLD TEMPS ARE RIGHT NOW. WHILE WAA WILL BE IN
PROGRESS...IT`S ALWAYS HARD TO FIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. WE NOW HAVE 43-50F WITH MID 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES VS.
45-53F WITH UPR 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES.

THE CANADIAN GEM DOES WELL IN THESE "SURPRISE" TEMP REGIMES AND IT
MAY WELL BE ONTO THIS. IT HAS 40-47F WITH 42-44F TRI-CITIES.

SUFFICE TO SAY FURTHER DOWNWARD REFINEMENTS MAY BE FORTHCOMING BY
THE DAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIP EVENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE FOLLOWED BY MORE WIND...

ALOFT: THE FLOW WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE CNTRL USA AND RIDGES JUST OFF BOTH COASTS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT...DEEPENING OVER TIME WITH A
GOOD SHOT OF QG FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT UPR-LVL JET.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ALBERTA. THIS LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER WRN IA BY DAYBREAK
WED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU TONIGHT.

TODAY: WAA WILL CONT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER. MORNING
SUN WILL RAPIDLY BE OBSCURED BY INCREASING AND DESCENDING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT CLOUDS MAY COME IN THICK
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. I.E. WE MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC
ENOUGH. THAT IS A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING HI-RES MODELING INDICATE A SWATH OF
FGEN-ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 3PM-12AM. SPRINKLES ARE MOST LIKELY ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. INCLUDED SPRINKLES S AND W OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF .01" QPF AS SOME SREF MEMBERS DO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE BEST MODEL CLUSTERING.

USED THE 05Z BIAS CORRECTED RAP FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
N. DESPITE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DWPTS/RH TODAY WITH 10F OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV/MET MOS. USED CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-
RES MODELS WHICH WERE NOT THE LOWEST BUT DID FAVOR THE DRIER MAV
MOS. THIS WILL WORK BEST OUTSIDE WHERE IT RAINS...BUT MOISTENING
FROM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DWPTS LOCALLY.

TONIGHT: SWATH OF RAIN/SPRINKLES EXITS TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG CAA KICKS IN AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A CORE OF
50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB. OUTPUT FROM THE WIND GUST TOOL SEEMED TOO
LOW SO USED GUSTS FROM A BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
/CONSRAW/. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS N OF HWY 6 BEGINNING 3 AM.
WITH 40 KTS AS LOW AS 1500 FT...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS.

P-TYPE: KEPT IT PRIMARILY RAIN/SPRINKLES EXCEPT ON THE EXTREME
NE/E FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA 07Z-08Z ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP...IF IT`S STILL FALLING BY THEN. NAM P-TYPE ALGORITHM KEEPS
IT ALL RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LEFTOVER DAYTIME BL
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. EVEN WETBULB TEMPS FAVOR RAIN
WITH +2 UP TO 1K FT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME TEMP PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 27-38F AND
30-31F IN THE TRI-CITIES. EVEN THE MOS 3-HOURLY TEMPS SUGGEST
THIS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS. EXPECT TWO COLD AIR OUTBREAKS...
ONE ON WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO FINISH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE
...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO WITH A LITTLE 850/700
MB MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING IN. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 0.00 QPF AND THE CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP MORE OVER NEBRASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SLOWLY START TO WARM BACK UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT. AT THE SFC...THE WIND WILL TURN TO
SOUTHERLY AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE WARMING
WILL BE GRADUAL ON THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RISE
EXPECTED OVER WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT THE WARM UP WILL INCREASE AS
WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEASTERN ZONES...TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND IN
CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST. ALL IN ALL EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE LARGELY SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT
AND BRING IT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FULL DIURNAL HEATING UNDER A
CONTINUED WARM AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD HELP ALL AREAS GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN INDICATES A FEW SPOTS
COULD HIT 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING HINGES ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT RIGHT NOW SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A GREAT
DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SNAP HITS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY DECENT FORECAST AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR
MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE ARE NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT
SNOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COLD. OUR FORECAST HIGHS BASED OFF
THE SUPERBLEND OF MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN ORD TO THE
30S ELSEWHERE AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTICALLY TOO WARM IF YOU
BELIEVE THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THERE IS A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR OUT ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TODAY: THICK MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS INVADE AROUND 18K FT AND
CASCADE DOWNWARD THRU THE DAY TO AROUND 6K FT BY SUNSET. LIGHT
SW-W WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE...GUSTING 20-23 KTS AT
TIMES PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VFR SHWR POSSIBLE 00Z-03Z. THEN A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 03Z-05Z. MVFR CIGS APPEAR PROBABLE...BUT NOT
ALL GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD YET. NW WINDS WILL GUST 25-33 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 251145
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FURTHER MONITORING OF SATELLITE TRENDS NECESSITATES INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FASTER THAN IN THE 3 AM FCST ISSUANCE. THERE IS A LOT
OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS/ALTOCU UPSTREAM AND IT IS NOT
SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF THINNING. SO SKY COVER WAS INCREASED FURTHER.

BASED ON THIS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO LOWERED 2-4F AND THAT MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH GIVEN HOW COLD TEMPS ARE RIGHT NOW. WHILE WAA WILL BE IN
PROGRESS...IT`S ALWAYS HARD TO FIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. WE NOW HAVE 43-50F WITH MID 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES VS.
45-53F WITH UPR 40S IN THE TRI-CITIES.

THE CANADIAN GEM DOES WELL IN THESE "SURPRISE" TEMP REGIMES AND IT
MAY WELL BE ONTO THIS. IT HAS 40-47F WITH 42-44F TRI-CITIES.

SUFFICE TO SAY FURTHER DOWNWARD REFINEMENTS MAY BE FORTHCOMING BY
THE DAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIP EVENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE FOLLOWED BY MORE WIND...

ALOFT: THE FLOW WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE CNTRL USA AND RIDGES JUST OFF BOTH COASTS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT...DEEPENING OVER TIME WITH A
GOOD SHOT OF QG FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT UPR-LVL JET.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ALBERTA. THIS LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER WRN IA BY DAYBREAK
WED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU TONIGHT.

TODAY: WAA WILL CONT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER. MORNING
SUN WILL RAPIDLY BE OBSCURED BY INCREASING AND DESCENDING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT CLOUDS MAY COME IN THICK
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. I.E. WE MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC
ENOUGH. THAT IS A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING HI-RES MODELING INDICATE A SWATH OF
FGEN-ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 3PM-12AM. SPRINKLES ARE MOST LIKELY ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. INCLUDED SPRINKLES S AND W OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF .01" QPF AS SOME SREF MEMBERS DO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE BEST MODEL CLUSTERING.

USED THE 05Z BIAS CORRECTED RAP FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
N. DESPITE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DWPTS/RH TODAY WITH 10F OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV/MET MOS. USED CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-
RES MODELS WHICH WERE NOT THE LOWEST BUT DID FAVOR THE DRIER MAV
MOS. THIS WILL WORK BEST OUTSIDE WHERE IT RAINS...BUT MOISTENING
FROM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DWPTS LOCALLY.

TONIGHT: SWATH OF RAIN/SPRINKLES EXITS TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG CAA KICKS IN AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A CORE OF
50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB. OUTPUT FROM THE WIND GUST TOOL SEEMED TOO
LOW SO USED GUSTS FROM A BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
/CONSRAW/. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS N OF HWY 6 BEGINNING 3 AM.
WITH 40 KTS AS LOW AS 1500 FT...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS.

P-TYPE: KEPT IT PRIMARILY RAIN/SPRINKLES EXCEPT ON THE EXTREME
NE/E FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA 07Z-08Z ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP...IF IT`S STILL FALLING BY THEN. NAM P-TYPE ALGORITHM KEEPS
IT ALL RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LEFTOVER DAYTIME BL
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. EVEN WETBULB TEMPS FAVOR RAIN
WITH +2 UP TO 1K FT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME TEMP PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 27-38F AND
30-31F IN THE TRI-CITIES. EVEN THE MOS 3-HOURLY TEMPS SUGGEST
THIS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS. EXPECT TWO COLD AIR OUTBREAKS...
ONE ON WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO FINISH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE
...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO WITH A LITTLE 850/700
MB MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING IN. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 0.00 QPF AND THE CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP MORE OVER NEBRASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SLOWLY START TO WARM BACK UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT. AT THE SFC...THE WIND WILL TURN TO
SOUTHERLY AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE WARMING
WILL BE GRADUAL ON THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RISE
EXPECTED OVER WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT THE WARM UP WILL INCREASE AS
WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEASTERN ZONES...TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND IN
CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST. ALL IN ALL EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE LARGELY SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT
AND BRING IT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FULL DIURNAL HEATING UNDER A
CONTINUED WARM AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD HELP ALL AREAS GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN INDICATES A FEW SPOTS
COULD HIT 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING HINGES ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT RIGHT NOW SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A GREAT
DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SNAP HITS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY DECENT FORECAST AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR
MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE ARE NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT
SNOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COLD. OUR FORECAST HIGHS BASED OFF
THE SUPERBLEND OF MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN ORD TO THE
30S ELSEWHERE AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTICALLY TOO WARM IF YOU
BELIEVE THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THERE IS A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR OUT ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TODAY: THICK MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS INVADE AROUND 18K FT AND
CASCADE DOWNWARD THRU THE DAY TO AROUND 6K FT BY SUNSET. LIGHT
SW-W WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE...GUSTING 20-23 KTS AT
TIMES PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VFR SHWR POSSIBLE 00Z-03Z. THEN A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 03Z-05Z. MVFR CIGS APPEAR PROBABLE...BUT NOT
ALL GUIDANCE IS ON BOARD YET. NW WINDS WILL GUST 25-33 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251125
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

REGION REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT 08Z WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START OFF QUITE COOL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WARM QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOW TRACK. EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

REGION WILL ENJOY FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGS A POOL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR ROLLS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR OUR AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMING IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. PCPN INITIALLY WILL
BE IN LIQUID FORM...BUT SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW MAINLY
AFTER 04Z AT KOFK AND AFTER 06Z AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 251125
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

REGION REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT 08Z WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START OFF QUITE COOL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WARM QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOW TRACK. EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST DURING
THE MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

REGION WILL ENJOY FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGS A POOL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR ROLLS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR OUR AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMING IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. PCPN INITIALLY WILL
BE IN LIQUID FORM...BUT SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW MAINLY
AFTER 04Z AT KOFK AND AFTER 06Z AT KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 250943
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
343 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MONTANA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES MAINLY RANGING IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM NERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO NCTRL SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM NCTRL NEBR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING SNOW AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT
REACHES THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. POPS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO LIKELY BY MID
AFTERNOON AT VTN EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA COUNTY. CHANCE POPS TO EXTEND
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF REMAINING NCTRL NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF SWRN NEBR EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ONEILL AND BURWELL AREAS BY 00Z/26TH AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO WRN SANDHILLS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WITH ONLY NEUTRAL TO WEAK CAA...HIGHS FOR
THE BALANCE OF TODAY WILL ACTUALLY RANGE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER
40S NCTRL TO 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES NEAR MAV GUIDANCE.

NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. H85 TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -8C ACROSS VTN THOUGH ONEILL
LATE TONIGHT AND NEAR -3C AT IML. CORRESPONDING LOWS FROM THE LOWER
20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 20S FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ERN PNHDL AND NCTRL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A HYBRID OF ARCTIC AND PACIFIC AIR WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN A TREK TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL. NEGATIVES FOR GETTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
INCLUDE A DRY LAYER FROM AROUND H700 TO H600 MB INITIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LAYER DOES MOISTEN SOME LATER
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LIFT OVERALL THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY IS
WEAK...AND WHAT LIFT THERE IS REALLY ISN/T FOCUSED IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. SO WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONLY IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...VERY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THANKSGIVING
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13C
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER THANKSGIVING DAY...AND WARM
FURTHER TO AROUND 17C FRIDAY. MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE 50S
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THANKSGIVING DAY AND 60S FRIDAY.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WARMER...KEEPING
ANY ARCTIC AIR WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT H850 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS AROUND 7C
NORTH AND 13C SOUTH...SO FEEL THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH IS A PRETTY GOOD
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THOUGH THE AREA...AND A FAIRLY COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSOURI BASIN TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS AND
VSBY ARE EXPECTED FROM 20Z ONWARD IN THIS AREA. VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KLBF 250943
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
343 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MONTANA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES MAINLY RANGING IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM NERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO NCTRL SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM NCTRL NEBR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING SNOW AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT
REACHES THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. POPS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO LIKELY BY MID
AFTERNOON AT VTN EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA COUNTY. CHANCE POPS TO EXTEND
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF REMAINING NCTRL NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF SWRN NEBR EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ONEILL AND BURWELL AREAS BY 00Z/26TH AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO WRN SANDHILLS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WITH ONLY NEUTRAL TO WEAK CAA...HIGHS FOR
THE BALANCE OF TODAY WILL ACTUALLY RANGE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER
40S NCTRL TO 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES NEAR MAV GUIDANCE.

NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. H85 TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -8C ACROSS VTN THOUGH ONEILL
LATE TONIGHT AND NEAR -3C AT IML. CORRESPONDING LOWS FROM THE LOWER
20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 20S FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ERN PNHDL AND NCTRL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A HYBRID OF ARCTIC AND PACIFIC AIR WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN A TREK TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL. NEGATIVES FOR GETTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
INCLUDE A DRY LAYER FROM AROUND H700 TO H600 MB INITIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LAYER DOES MOISTEN SOME LATER
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LIFT OVERALL THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY IS
WEAK...AND WHAT LIFT THERE IS REALLY ISN/T FOCUSED IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. SO WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONLY IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...VERY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THANKSGIVING
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13C
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER THANKSGIVING DAY...AND WARM
FURTHER TO AROUND 17C FRIDAY. MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE 50S
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THANKSGIVING DAY AND 60S FRIDAY.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WARMER...KEEPING
ANY ARCTIC AIR WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT H850 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS AROUND 7C
NORTH AND 13C SOUTH...SO FEEL THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH IS A PRETTY GOOD
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THOUGH THE AREA...AND A FAIRLY COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSOURI BASIN TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS AND
VSBY ARE EXPECTED FROM 20Z ONWARD IN THIS AREA. VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KLBF 250943
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
343 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MONTANA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES MAINLY RANGING IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM NERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO NCTRL SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM NCTRL NEBR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING SNOW AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT
REACHES THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. POPS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO LIKELY BY MID
AFTERNOON AT VTN EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA COUNTY. CHANCE POPS TO EXTEND
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF REMAINING NCTRL NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF SWRN NEBR EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ONEILL AND BURWELL AREAS BY 00Z/26TH AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO WRN SANDHILLS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WITH ONLY NEUTRAL TO WEAK CAA...HIGHS FOR
THE BALANCE OF TODAY WILL ACTUALLY RANGE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER
40S NCTRL TO 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES NEAR MAV GUIDANCE.

NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. H85 TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -8C ACROSS VTN THOUGH ONEILL
LATE TONIGHT AND NEAR -3C AT IML. CORRESPONDING LOWS FROM THE LOWER
20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 20S FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ERN PNHDL AND NCTRL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A HYBRID OF ARCTIC AND PACIFIC AIR WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN A TREK TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL. NEGATIVES FOR GETTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
INCLUDE A DRY LAYER FROM AROUND H700 TO H600 MB INITIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LAYER DOES MOISTEN SOME LATER
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LIFT OVERALL THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY IS
WEAK...AND WHAT LIFT THERE IS REALLY ISN/T FOCUSED IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. SO WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONLY IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...VERY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THANKSGIVING
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13C
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER THANKSGIVING DAY...AND WARM
FURTHER TO AROUND 17C FRIDAY. MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE 50S
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THANKSGIVING DAY AND 60S FRIDAY.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WARMER...KEEPING
ANY ARCTIC AIR WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT H850 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS AROUND 7C
NORTH AND 13C SOUTH...SO FEEL THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH IS A PRETTY GOOD
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THOUGH THE AREA...AND A FAIRLY COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSOURI BASIN TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS AND
VSBY ARE EXPECTED FROM 20Z ONWARD IN THIS AREA. VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KLBF 250943
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
343 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MONTANA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES MAINLY RANGING IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM NERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO NCTRL SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM NCTRL NEBR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING SNOW AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT
REACHES THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. POPS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO LIKELY BY MID
AFTERNOON AT VTN EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA COUNTY. CHANCE POPS TO EXTEND
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF REMAINING NCTRL NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF SWRN NEBR EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ONEILL AND BURWELL AREAS BY 00Z/26TH AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO WRN SANDHILLS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WITH ONLY NEUTRAL TO WEAK CAA...HIGHS FOR
THE BALANCE OF TODAY WILL ACTUALLY RANGE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER
40S NCTRL TO 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES NEAR MAV GUIDANCE.

NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. H85 TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -8C ACROSS VTN THOUGH ONEILL
LATE TONIGHT AND NEAR -3C AT IML. CORRESPONDING LOWS FROM THE LOWER
20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 20S FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ERN PNHDL AND NCTRL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A HYBRID OF ARCTIC AND PACIFIC AIR WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN A TREK TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL. NEGATIVES FOR GETTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
INCLUDE A DRY LAYER FROM AROUND H700 TO H600 MB INITIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LAYER DOES MOISTEN SOME LATER
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LIFT OVERALL THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY IS
WEAK...AND WHAT LIFT THERE IS REALLY ISN/T FOCUSED IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. SO WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONLY IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...VERY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THANKSGIVING
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13C
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER THANKSGIVING DAY...AND WARM
FURTHER TO AROUND 17C FRIDAY. MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE 50S
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THANKSGIVING DAY AND 60S FRIDAY.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WARMER...KEEPING
ANY ARCTIC AIR WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT H850 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS AROUND 7C
NORTH AND 13C SOUTH...SO FEEL THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH IS A PRETTY GOOD
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THOUGH THE AREA...AND A FAIRLY COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSOURI BASIN TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS AND
VSBY ARE EXPECTED FROM 20Z ONWARD IN THIS AREA. VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KGID 250908
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIP EVENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE FOLLOWED BY MORE WIND...

ALOFT: THE FLOW WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE CNTRL USA AND RIDGES JUST OFF BOTH COASTS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT...DEEPENING OVER TIME WITH A
GOOD SHOT OF QG FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT UPR-LVL JET.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ALBERTA. THIS LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER WRN IA BY DAYBREAK
WED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU TONIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING: WAA WAS UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWS ARE LARGE
EXPANSE OF LOW-MID CLOUDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
WARM FRONT. THE SRN END OF THESE CLOUDS WAS GRAZING THE FCST AREA.
COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE FLURRIES N OF NEB HWY 92 BEFORE SUNRISE.

TODAY: WAA WILL CONT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER. MORNING
SUN WILL RAPIDLY BE OBSCURED BY INCREASING AND DESCENDING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT CLOUDS MAY COME IN THICK
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. I.E. WE MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC
ENOUGH. THAT IS A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING HI-RES MODELING INDICATE A SWATH OF
FGEN-ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 3PM-12AM. SPRINKLES ARE MOST LIKELY ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. INCLUDED SPRINKLES S AND W OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF .01" QPF AS SOME SREF MEMBERS DO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE BEST MODEL CLUSTERING.

USED THE 05Z BIAS CORRECTED RAP FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
N. DESPITE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DWPTS/RH TODAY WITH 10F OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV/MET MOS. USED CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-
RES MODELS WHICH WERE NOT THE LOWEST BUT DID FAVOR THE DRIER MAV
MOS. THIS WILL WORK BEST OUTSIDE WHERE IT RAINS...BUT MOISTENING
FROM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DWPTS LOCALLY.

TONIGHT: SWATH OF RAIN/SPRINKLES EXITS TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG CAA KICKS IN AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A CORE OF
50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB. OUTPUT FROM THE WIND GUST TOOL SEEMED TOO
LOW SO USED GUSTS FROM A BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
/CONSRAW/. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS N OF HWY 6 BEGINNING 3 AM.
WITH 40 KTS AS LOW AS 1500 FT...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS.

P-TYPE: KEPT IT PRIMARILY RAIN/SPRINKLES EXCEPT ON THE EXTREME
NE/E FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA 07Z-08Z ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP...IF IT`S STILL FALLING BY THEN. NAM P-TYPE ALGORITHM KEEPS
IT ALL RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LEFTOVER DAYTIME BL
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. EVEN WETBULB TEMPS FAVOR RAIN
WITH +2 UP TO 1K FT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME TEMP PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 27-38F AND
30-31F IN THE TRI-CITIES. EVEN THE MOS 3-HOURLY TEMPS SUGGEST
THIS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS. EXPECT TWO COLD AIR OUTBREAKS...
ONE ON WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO FINISH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE
...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO WITH A LITTLE 850/700
MB MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING IN. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 0.00 QPF AND THE CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP MORE OVER NEBRASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SLOWLY START TO WARM BACK UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT. AT THE SFC...THE WIND WILL TURN TO
SOUTHERLY AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE WARMING
WILL BE GRADUAL ON THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RISE
EXPECTED OVER WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT THE WARM UP WILL INCREASE AS
WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEASTERN ZONES...TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND IN
CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST. ALL IN ALL EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE LARGELY SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT
AND BRING IT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FULL DIURNAL HEATING UNDER A
CONTINUED WARM AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD HELP ALL AREAS GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN INDICATES A FEW SPOTS
COULD HIT 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING HINGES ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT RIGHT NOW SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A GREAT
DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SNAP HITS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY DECENT FORECAST AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR
MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE ARE NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT
SNOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COLD. OUR FORECAST HIGHS BASED OFF
THE SUPERBLEND OF MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN ORD TO THE
30S ELSEWHERE AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTICALLY TOO WARM IF YOU
BELIEVE THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THERE IS A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR OUT ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH SCT PATCHES OF 7K ALTOCU DRIFTING THRU. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE W. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS MOVE IN AND GRADUALLY DESCEND DOWN TO
ROUGHLY 9K FT. WINDS BECOME SW 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE EVE: VFR CIGS DESCEND TO AROUND 4K FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH A BIT OF -RA POSSIBLE. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WSHFT EXPECTED AROUND 03Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 250908
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIP EVENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE FOLLOWED BY MORE WIND...

ALOFT: THE FLOW WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE CNTRL USA AND RIDGES JUST OFF BOTH COASTS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT...DEEPENING OVER TIME WITH A
GOOD SHOT OF QG FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT UPR-LVL JET.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ALBERTA. THIS LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER WRN IA BY DAYBREAK
WED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU TONIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING: WAA WAS UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWS ARE LARGE
EXPANSE OF LOW-MID CLOUDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
WARM FRONT. THE SRN END OF THESE CLOUDS WAS GRAZING THE FCST AREA.
COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE FLURRIES N OF NEB HWY 92 BEFORE SUNRISE.

TODAY: WAA WILL CONT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER. MORNING
SUN WILL RAPIDLY BE OBSCURED BY INCREASING AND DESCENDING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT CLOUDS MAY COME IN THICK
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. I.E. WE MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC
ENOUGH. THAT IS A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING HI-RES MODELING INDICATE A SWATH OF
FGEN-ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 3PM-12AM. SPRINKLES ARE MOST LIKELY ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. INCLUDED SPRINKLES S AND W OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF .01" QPF AS SOME SREF MEMBERS DO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE BEST MODEL CLUSTERING.

USED THE 05Z BIAS CORRECTED RAP FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
N. DESPITE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DWPTS/RH TODAY WITH 10F OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV/MET MOS. USED CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-
RES MODELS WHICH WERE NOT THE LOWEST BUT DID FAVOR THE DRIER MAV
MOS. THIS WILL WORK BEST OUTSIDE WHERE IT RAINS...BUT MOISTENING
FROM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DWPTS LOCALLY.

TONIGHT: SWATH OF RAIN/SPRINKLES EXITS TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG CAA KICKS IN AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A CORE OF
50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB. OUTPUT FROM THE WIND GUST TOOL SEEMED TOO
LOW SO USED GUSTS FROM A BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
/CONSRAW/. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS N OF HWY 6 BEGINNING 3 AM.
WITH 40 KTS AS LOW AS 1500 FT...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS.

P-TYPE: KEPT IT PRIMARILY RAIN/SPRINKLES EXCEPT ON THE EXTREME
NE/E FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA 07Z-08Z ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP...IF IT`S STILL FALLING BY THEN. NAM P-TYPE ALGORITHM KEEPS
IT ALL RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LEFTOVER DAYTIME BL
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. EVEN WETBULB TEMPS FAVOR RAIN
WITH +2 UP TO 1K FT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME TEMP PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 27-38F AND
30-31F IN THE TRI-CITIES. EVEN THE MOS 3-HOURLY TEMPS SUGGEST
THIS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS. EXPECT TWO COLD AIR OUTBREAKS...
ONE ON WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO FINISH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE
...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO WITH A LITTLE 850/700
MB MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING IN. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 0.00 QPF AND THE CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP MORE OVER NEBRASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SLOWLY START TO WARM BACK UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT. AT THE SFC...THE WIND WILL TURN TO
SOUTHERLY AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE WARMING
WILL BE GRADUAL ON THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RISE
EXPECTED OVER WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT THE WARM UP WILL INCREASE AS
WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEASTERN ZONES...TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND IN
CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST. ALL IN ALL EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE LARGELY SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT
AND BRING IT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FULL DIURNAL HEATING UNDER A
CONTINUED WARM AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD HELP ALL AREAS GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN INDICATES A FEW SPOTS
COULD HIT 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING HINGES ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT RIGHT NOW SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A GREAT
DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SNAP HITS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY DECENT FORECAST AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR
MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE ARE NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT
SNOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COLD. OUR FORECAST HIGHS BASED OFF
THE SUPERBLEND OF MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN ORD TO THE
30S ELSEWHERE AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTICALLY TOO WARM IF YOU
BELIEVE THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THERE IS A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR OUT ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH SCT PATCHES OF 7K ALTOCU DRIFTING THRU. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE W. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS MOVE IN AND GRADUALLY DESCEND DOWN TO
ROUGHLY 9K FT. WINDS BECOME SW 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE EVE: VFR CIGS DESCEND TO AROUND 4K FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH A BIT OF -RA POSSIBLE. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WSHFT EXPECTED AROUND 03Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KOAX 250855
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

REGION REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT 08Z WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START OFF QUITE COOL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WARM QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOW TRACK. EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST
DURING THE MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

REGION WILL ENJOY FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGS A POOL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR ROLLS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR OUR AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMING IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DECREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. MID CLOUDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.
BY EVENING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
PROGGED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE EVENING. SOME OF THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250855
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

REGION REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT 08Z WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START OFF QUITE COOL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WARM QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOW TRACK. EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST
DURING THE MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

REGION WILL ENJOY FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGS A POOL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR ROLLS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR OUR AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMING IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DECREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. MID CLOUDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.
BY EVENING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
PROGGED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE EVENING. SOME OF THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250855
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

REGION REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT 08Z WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START OFF QUITE COOL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WARM QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOW TRACK. EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST
DURING THE MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

REGION WILL ENJOY FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGS A POOL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR ROLLS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR OUR AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMING IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DECREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. MID CLOUDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.
BY EVENING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
PROGGED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE EVENING. SOME OF THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 250855
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

REGION REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AT 08Z WITH CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START OFF QUITE COOL
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WARM QUICKLY AS WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOW TRACK. EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
NEW SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST
DURING THE MORNING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

REGION WILL ENJOY FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW BRINGS A POOL OF WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DROP SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR ROLLS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR OUR AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMING IS INDICATED FOR MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF STRONG WEST
COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DECREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. MID CLOUDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.
BY EVENING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
PROGGED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE EVENING. SOME OF THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN




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