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000
FXUS63 KOAX 311720
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1220 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Made some minor changes to thunderstorm chances this afternoon...
along with temperatures and winds. Cold front at noon extended
from near Atlantic to west of Falls City. Some storms had formed
along the front. Light showers from mid clouds over central
Nebraska should weaken but could possibly get into our western
zones this afternoon or evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

An upper level low currently moving east/southeast across eastern
Montana will continue to slide across the Northern Plains today
dragging a trough axis through the Central Plains. At the surface,
low pressure was centered over southeast North Dakota with a
trailing cold front extending south from the low across eastern
South Dakota and into central Nebraska. Scattered showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms continue to weaken as they spread east
across the CWA this morning ahead of the main boundary. Will
continue to carry chances along the cold front as it pushes
eastward through the CWA today and into this evening.

Behind the front/precipitation, surface high pressure will build
into the region and persist through Wednesday. Return flow will
set up on Thursday while a weak shortwave moves through the
Northern Plains. Will continue a small pop in our northern
counties Thursday afternoon to account for this.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Upper level ridging will amplify across the western CONUS while a
shortwave trough moves down the front side of the ridge across the
Northern Plains and toward the Great Lakes region for the start of
the weekend. This will send a cold front into the area Friday
night which will be our next shot at showers and thunderstorms.
Dry conditions expected for the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

MVFR ceilings possible at KOMA and KLNK into the early afternoon...
then expect VFR conditions. Best chances for TSRA are east of the
TAF sites. North/northwest winds will decrease this evening.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Miller



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000
FXUS63 KGID 311701
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1201 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Latest trends in radar show the band of rain weakening and narrowing
as it moves to the east of the forecast area early this morning.
Surface analysis is a little messy with the outflow boundaries from
the storms, but it appears that the cold front is located somewhere
in the eastern part of the forecast area.

The main question this morning is when will the precipitation come
to an end across the forecast area. The upper level wave continues
to move through the eastern part of the forecast area and with the
front located in that area, have left some POPs in the east for
early this morning. The front lingers in the far southeast part of
the forecast area through the morning hours. There could be some
development or just showers and thunderstorms lingering in the
southeast into the afternoon hours. Most of the short term models
move the precipitation out of the area during the late morning into
the early afternoon.

Tonight there is a surface high pressure that will build into the
area. The high should bring clearing skies starting this afternoon
and continuing into the overnight hours. Winds should become light
and variable.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

The mid period starts off with two upper disturbances across the
main CONUS. The first is north and slightly east over northern
Minnesota. The second is south near Baja. This leaves the Central
Plains and Nebraska mainly dry. The southern disturbance moves off
to the northeast impacting areas mainly south of the Oklahoma/Kansas
border. Surface high pressure will slide overhead and winds will be
light throughout Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Expected high temperatures on Wednesday are in the upper 70s. By
Thursday southerly flow returns at the surface with a couple weak
pulses in the upper levels moving across as energy follows the
upper wave across the northern Plains. This will bring some
scattered clouds, but overall it will be a pleasant day with highs
in the upper 70s and low 80s. Some guidance indicates the chance
for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night, but right now
confidence is very low on how it will evolve and have left it dry.

In the long term a more potent wave will be moving across the
northern Plains on Friday which will cause a front to move across
the area. This front will be the focus for another chance for
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Highs will
be in the low 80s before the front moves through.

Saturday through Monday Nebraska will be on the back side of the
upper trough over the Great Lakes. This will keep the area in
northwest flow aloft and any small disturbance that dives into the
trough could bring chances for clouds and precip. Currently
guidance keeps most precipitation across eastern Nebraska, but if
the waves shift any it could impact south central Nebraska/north
central Kansas. High pressure will be building in through the
weekend and the surface high will move through on Sunday/Sunday
night. Temperatures will be near normal for the beginning of June
in the upper 70s through the weekend and the start of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Fay



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000
FXUS63 KLBF 311148
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
648 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

A fairly active H5 pattern was noted this evening over the CONUS.
A closed low and trough of low pressure was noted over Montana and
extended south into the Nebraska Panhandle. A second closed low
was located over southwestern Arizona. Further east, a decent
shortwave was located over the Ozarks of Missouri with a tropical
wave located along the South Carolina coast. Off the western coast
of the CONUS, a ridge extended from off the coast of northern
California north into northern British Columbia. At the surface,
low pressure was located over southeastern North Dakota with a
cold front extending south southwest into eastern South Dakota and
central Nebraska. This front was responsible for a line of strong
to severe thunderstorms earlier tonight which impacted western and
north central Nebraska. This line of showers and thunderstorms has
weakened overnight and currently extended from eastern South
Dakota into north central and west central Kansas. Under mostly
cloudy skies overnight, 3 AM CDT temperatures were in the mid to
upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Benign weather is expected over the next 24 hours with the main
forecast challenge being temperatures. For today, the upper level
trough of low pressure and closed low currently over eastern
Montana, will move east into North Dakota. A shortwave on the
southern periphery of the low will track across South Dakota and
far northern Nebraska this afternoon. Lapse rates will steepen
considerably over northern Nebraska this afternoon as temperatures
rise into the lower 70s. With a dry boundary layer in place-IE dew
points in the lower 40s, measurable precipitation is not
anticipated at this time. However, some mid level clouds are
possible which may result in some sprinkles during peak heating in
northern Nebraska. For now, will not mention this in the FCST
package as confidence in any of this precipitation aloft making it
to the surface is low. Highs today will be in the lower 70s. The
guidance is largely unchanged from yesterday`s forecast highs this
afternoon, so will utilize persistence for FCST highs today. For
tonight, clear skies and dry air in place, will result in chilly
readings across the forecast area. Lows will generally be in the
40s, however, we could see some upper 30s in the eastern
panhandle. Still well above temps for frost formation.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Upper level trough axis pushes east of the forecast area on
Wednesday. Dry and mostly clear conditions are expected with deep
layer subsidence in place. Next shortwave trough moves into the
Northern Rockies on Thursday. Low level winds over the High Plains
become southerly as a lee side low slowly deepens over eastern
Wyoming. Moisture return in the southerly flow will push dewpoints
back into the 50s. NAM/GFS show isolated thunderstorm development
late in the day along a warm front draped near the SD/NE border.
Maintained slight pops in our far northeastern zones for the
afternoon and evening, but again the activity should be isolated
as a ridge axis over the area will limit forcing for ascent. Any
thunderstorm activity will become elevated and focused further
north overnight along the nose of a strengthening LLJ.

An amplified upper level pattern becomes established by the weekend
as a strong ridge builds over the western conus. Guidance has cooled
a little bit over the last 24 hours, likely due to the models
keeping the ridge axis further west than previous runs.
Aforementioned shortwave trough crests the top of the ridge and
dives southeast out of the Dakotas on Friday and sends a cold front
through the state. Convergence along the front increases by mid to
late day as it encounters an increasing unstable airmass over
central Nebraska. Maintained low end pops for our far eastern zones
at this time. The speed of the front may limit chances further west
as it clears much of the area early in the day. Dry and comfortable
conditions are expected through the weekend as an expansive area of
surface high pressure drops south through the High Plains. Afternoon
highs will be near normal in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Expect scattered to broken CIGS of 12000 FT AGL at both the KLBF
and KVTN terminals today. Skies will clear tonight. Winds will be
from the west or northwest at 10 to 20 KTS today, decreasing to
under 10 KTS tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Minor to moderate flooding continues along the North
Platte River from Lisco downstream to the confluence of the North
and South Platte Rivers just east of North Platte. Minor flooding
continues along the main stem Platte River from North Platte to
Brady. River stages along the North Platte River as of earlier this
evening were 4.3 feet at Lisco, 8.8 feet at Lewellen and 6.8 feet at
North Platte. The river stage along the Platte River at Brady was
7.7 feet. River levels are expected to remain steady over the next
several days. Increased water releases from Lake McConaughy would
raise river level along the North Platte River at North Platte.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Buttler
HYDROLOGY...Buttler




000
FXUS63 KOAX 311109
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
609 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

An upper level low currently moving east/southeast across eastern
Montana will continue to slide across the Northern Plains today
dragging a trough axis through the Central Plains. At the surface,
low pressure was centered over southeast North Dakota with a
trailing cold front extending south from the low across eastern
South Dakota and into central Nebraska. Scattered showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms continue to weaken as they spread east
across the CWA this morning ahead of the main boundary. Will
continue to carry chances along the cold front as it pushes
eastward through the CWA today and into this evening.

Behind the front/precipitation, surface high pressure will build
into the region and persist through Wednesday. Return flow will
set up on Thursday while a weak shortwave moves through the
Northern Plains. Will continue a small pop in our northern
counties Thursday afternoon to account for this.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Upper level ridging will amplify across the western CONUS while a
shortwave trough moves down the front side of the ridge across the
Northern Plains and toward the Great Lakes region for the start of
the weekend. This will send a cold front into the area Friday
night which will be our next shot at showers and thunderstorms.
Dry conditions expected for the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 12Z Wednesday)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

SFC cold front has moved through KOFK/KLNK and will soon move
through KOMA. Ceilings consist of mainly mid and high level
clouds currently, but we could see some SC develop behind the cold
front this morning, but this will likely be scattered in nature
and generally VFR. There are a few isolated showers still out
there this morning, and will include a VCSH mention at KOMA/KLNK,
but the rest of the TAF period should be dry. Clouds will decrease
tonight as winds generally become light.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Boustead




000
FXUS63 KLBF 310454 AAD
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1154 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Updated to clear the remainder of the watch.

UPDATE Issued at 904 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Updated forecast to clear watch to the west of Curtis to
Valentine. Lowered pops and adjusted winds.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Rain showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across north
central Nebraska along the dry line. Thunderstorms are anticipated
to continue developing through the afternoon. As thunderstorms
encounter a more unstable atmosphere as they move eastward,
thunderstorms will become severe. These storms will expand southward
over the early evening hours as the cold front approaches the region
from the west. The greatest threat with these storms will large hail
and strong winds. Several hours of severe storms are possible as the
line slowly progresses eastward.

Storms will move out of the area around midnight as the cold front
pushes across Nebraska and the Northern Plains. Behind the front,
light showers and possibly some light fog will be possible through
8am.

Tuesday will be much drier and cooler across central Nebraska as
surface high pressure starts to build into the region. High
temperatures will top out in the low 70s on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Tuesday night through Thursday...a dry forecast is in place through
early Thursday aftn. Both the NAM and GFS show a dryline bulge
developing across Ncntl Neb late Thursday aftn with K indices near
or above 40C. MLcape rises to around 2000j/kg with shear increasing
to around 35-40kt when calculated using mixed layer and 450 mb winds.
This places the bulk richardson number around 40 supporting isolated
storms. The NAM and GFS develop some convection by 00z Thursday
evening.

A blend of the GFS...SREF and NAM models produces dew points in the
upper 50s ahead of the dry line. Bias correction lowers them to the
mid 50s. The GFS and NAM show precipitable water increasing to
between 1.00 and 1.25 inches along and east of Highway 83. This
suggests that moisture will briefly return to the Cntl Plains this
week. CONRAD indicates the cape is too low for cell regeneration so
pops are isolated and this consistent with the GFS which shows very
light QPF.

Otherwise the forecast revolves around temperatures. The new
guidance is producing lows in the upper 30s at Alliance which would
produce lows near 40 across the Wrn Sandhills. The guidance produces
highs in the lower 70s Wednesday with lower 80s Thursday. The
temperature forecast uses a blend of 4 guidance data sets plus bias
correction.

Thursday night through Monday...a cold front will sweep the fcst
area Friday. Little cooling occurs behind the front. The main
feature is dry air and Pacific high pressure which will spend the
next 4 days sinking slowly south through Cntl and Srn Plains.

A dry forecast is in place with high temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Strong upper level ridging will be in place centered
over the Cntl Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move east into
central Nebraska east of a line from KANW to KBBW through the
early morning hours Tuesday. Some lingering showers and possibly
an isolated thunderstorm will be possible as the cold front moves
across western Nebraska through the early morning. The cold front
will produce strong northwest winds with gusts to 24kts and
possibly some MVFR ceilings. Have carried vicinity showers at both
KLBF and KVTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Flooding along the North Platte River and main branch of the Platte
River will continue until further notice. Water levels are expected
to remain fairly steady over the next few days resulting in moderate
flooding to continue along the North Platte River at North Platte
and Lewellen. Minor flooding will also continue at Lisco along the
North Platte River and Brady along the main branch of the Platte
River. Although the South Platte river is not anticipated to flood
at this time, water levels will remain elevated at both Roscoe and
North Platte.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Power
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power
HYDROLOGY...Kulik




000
FXUS63 KGID 302023
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
323 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...Much Quieter and Drier Weather is in the Offing After We Get
Past the Tstm Threat Tonight...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Aloft: Meteorological summer begins Wed and the 500 mb charts
from 00Z and 12Z show it. The main belt of Westerlies was over the
Nrn USA and it was weak. The strongest jet streak was over the Pac
NW associated with a shortwave trof. A small associated low has
developed along the MT/AB border. This low will advance across the
Dakotas tomorrow with the trof crossing the Cntrl Plains Tue
night.

Surface: As is typical of summer...most sfc features are weak and
poorly defined. Occluded/weak low pres was over Srn Sask with a
subtle warm front from SD-IA. A fairly decent cool front was
making its way thru the Pac NW/Nrn Rockies. Cyclogenesis will
occur over WY/SD today with a well-defined triple pt low taking
over and lifting to near FAR by 12Z/Tue. Meanwhile...the cool
front will surge S and cross the fcst area tonight. Weak high pres
will build in tomorrow.

Now: Svr Tstm Watch #232 is in effect until 10 pm. It will be svrl
hrs before tstms move into the fcst area. So Memorial Day
activities thru early evening should be fine. Suggest everyone
from Beaver City-Lexington-Ord keep an eye to the W after 8 pm.

Observed 12Z soundings show fairly dry air over the region in the
low-lvls...with dwpts in the mid-upr 50s. Combined with mid-lvl
lapse rates around 7.5 C/km and temps around 80F...this has
resulted in MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. 0-6 km shear is around 25
kts.

Tstm development should be most widespread over the Panhandle/Wrn
Neb and along the CO/KS border before 8 pm. Given the dry sub-
cloud layer...these storms should rapidly form a common cold pool
and accelerate E as one or more lines. While hail up to the size
of 1.5 inches will be possible early...believe the main threat
will be winds of 50-60 mph. This line should cross much if not all
of the fcst area from W-E between 10 pm and 4 am. The back edge
could linger S and E of the Tri-Cities thru dawn...but with
minimal severe threat expected after midnight.

Tomorrow: could see a little tstm activity linger into the morning
hrs...S and E of the Tri-Cities. Otherwise...decreasing clouds and
cooler.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Aloft: WNW flow Wed-Fri will become NW and the longwaves amplify.
Significant adjustments upstream over the Pac will send heights
rising over the Wrn USA as a +2 standard deviation ridge/high
builds. This ridge is then fcst to deamplify and overtake the
Plains the middle of next week per the EC and N American ensemble
means.

Surface: A stronger cool front will move thru Tue night with high
pres overtaking the region Wed. This high will depart to the E and
S Thu-Fri. The next Pac cool front will be making its way thru Wrn
Canada and the Nrn Rockies. This weak front is fcst to move thru
here Fri night-Sat followed by weak high pres Sun-Mon.

A few daily details...

Tue night: another passage of a cool front. No rain expected.

Wed: Wonderfully pleasant. Low humidity and winds.

Thu: Similar but a little warmer. Close to 80F.

Fri: A little warmer yet as the thermal ridge pokes NE across the
Cntrl Plains ahead of the approaching cool front. The 06Z/12Z GFS
runs were the most aggressive developing scattered tstms while the
00Z/12Z EC suggest maybe a lone tstm or two. The GFS is as much as
10F higher with its dwpts than the EC. There will be a lot of tstm
activity processing Gulf moisture over the Srn/Gulf Coast States.
Therefore...am not buying the GFS runs. The 00Z EC ensemble QPF
probabilities support this thinking with barely a 10% prob for
.10" in the 24 hr period from 7 am Fri - 7 am Sat. So POPs in the
fcst were clipped to only 20%.

Sat-Mon: Looks dry for now and very nice with highs around 80 and
lows 55-59F.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Significant Weather: A period of IFR tstms likely tonight with G45
kts possible.

This afternoon: VFR with sct patches of altocu and cirrostratus at
or above 12K ft. Winds will be vrbl between SE-SW 8-12 kts. A gust
up to 20 possible...but should not be persistent enough to include
in the TAFs. Confidence: High

Tonight: VFR to start...but a period of tstms with IFR VSBYs
appears likely as a cool front crosses the terminals. The exact
timing of its passage will be masked by a wind shift to NW as the
storms move in. G45 kts possible. Confidence: Medium

Tue thru 18Z: Multi-layered VFR clouds likely in the morning
behind departing tstms. Decreasing clouds thru the morning. NW
winds 10 kts or less shift to N-NNE. Confidence: Medium

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Halblaub
LONG TERM...Halblaub
AVIATION...Halblaub




000
FXUS63 KLBF 301955
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
255 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Rain showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across north
central Nebraska along the dry line. Thunderstorms are anticipated
to continue developing through the afternoon. As thunderstorms
encounter a more unstable atmosphere as they move eastward,
thunderstorms will become severe. These storms will expand southward
over the early evening hours as the cold front approaches the region
from the west. The greatest threat with these storms will large hail
and strong winds. Several hours of severe storms are possible as the
line slowly progresses eastward.

Storms will move out of the area around midnight as the cold front
pushes across Nebraska and the Northern Plains. Behind the front,
light showers and possibly some light fog will be possible through
8am.

Tuesday will be much drier and cooler across central Nebraska as
surface high pressure starts to build into the region. High
temperatures will top out in the low 70s on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Tuesday night through Thursday...a dry forecast is in place through
early Thursday aftn. Both the NAM and GFS show a dryline bulge
developing across Ncntl Neb late Thursday aftn with K indices near
or above 40C. MLcape rises to around 2000j/kg with shear increasing
to around 35-40kt when calculated using mixed layer and 450 mb winds.
This places the bulk richardson number around 40 supporting isolated
storms. The NAM and GFS develop some convection by 00z Thursday
evening.

A blend of the GFS...SREF and NAM models produces dew points in the
upper 50s ahead of the dry line. Bias correction lowers them to the
mid 50s. The GFS and NAM show precipitable water increasing to
between 1.00 and 1.25 inches along and east of Highway 83. This
suggests that moisture will briefly return to the Cntl Plains this
week. CONRAD indicates the cape is too low for cell regeneration so
pops are isolated and this consistent with the GFS which shows very
light QPF.

Otherwise the forecast revolves around temperatures. The new
guidance is producing lows in the upper 30s at Alliance which would
produce lows near 40 across the Wrn Sandhills. The guidance produces
highs in the lower 70s Wednesday with lower 80s Thursday. The
temperature forecast uses a blend of 4 guidance data sets plus bias
correction.

Thursday night through Monday...a cold front will sweep the fcst
area Friday. Little cooling occurs behind the front. The main
feature is dry air and Pacific high pressure which will spend the
next 4 days sinking slowly south through Cntl and Srn Plains.

A dry forecast is in place with high temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Strong upper level ridging will be in place centered
over the Cntl Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

VFR conditions continue for the first part of the afternoon
before showers and thunderstorms develop tonight. Timing is still
a little uncertain with the line of storms this evening, but
general consensus is that storms will occur between 6pm and
midnight. Any thunderstorms will cause a reduction in visibility
and lowering of ceilings as well as gusty winds. Behind the rain
showers, light fog may be possible especially at the KLBF
terminal. VFR conditions return for Tuesday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Flooding along the North Platte River and main branch of the Platte
River will continue until further notice. Water levels are expected
to remain fairly steady over the next few days resulting in moderate
flooding to continue along the North Platte River at North Platte
and Lewellen. Minor flooding will also continue at Lisco along the
North Platte River and Brady along the main branch of the Platte
River. Although the South Platte river is not anticipated to flood
at this time, water levels will remain elevated at both Roscoe and
North Platte.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik
HYDROLOGY...Kulik




000
FXUS63 KOAX 301125
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
625 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

A mid level shortwave trough currently over southwest Canada is
forecast to close off as it slides southeast into the Northern
Plains over the next 24 hours. In addition, a very weak vort lobe
now over northeast Colorado will slide east/northeast throughout
the day. At the surface, an area of low pressure over eastern
Wyoming will strengthen over the Black Hills and slide east across
South Dakota through the day. This will drag a trailing cold front
into the CWA tonight into a moderately unstable airmass. Of note,
the NAM looks too high with boundary layer moisture leading to
overdone instability. To complicate matters, latest runs of CAM`s
develop scattered convection through the morning, most likely in
association with isentropic upglide in warm air advection pattern.
Will carry a low confidence low pop through the morning and early
afternoon hours to account for this. Additional forcing for ascent may
come from weak shortwave moving across Nebraska today as well.

In any event, strongest convection is expected along the cold
front this evening and overnight. This activity should clear the
southeastern counties by mid Tuesday morning. Portions of the
area have been outlooked in a Slight Risk in SWODY1 and also
WPC`s Slight Risk for excessive rainfall.

Surface high pressure will build in behind this Tuesday and
should persist over the region through mid to late week.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Dry conditions expected for the beginning of the long term with
surface high pressure overhead. Region remains in weak, nearly
zonal flow aloft with flow becoming more northwesterly by the
weekend as ridging builds to our west. A cold front is progged to
drop through the region late Friday night which will is our next
chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 12Z Tuesday)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Some of the convection allowing models still hint at some SHRA or
TSRA this morning...but chances seem to low to mention in the TAFs
at this time. Will amend as needed. Higher chances will be this
evening and overnight. Look for generally VFR conditions outside
of TSRA.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Miller




000
FXUS63 KOAX 300842
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
342 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

A mid level shortwave trough currently over southwest Canada is
forecast to close off as it slides southeast into the Northern
Plains over the next 24 hours. In addition, a very weak vort lobe
now over northeast Colorado will slide east/northeast throughout
the day. At the surface, an area of low presure over eastern
Wyoming will strengthen over the Black Hills and slide east across
South Dakota through the day. This will drag a trailing cold front
into the CWA tonight into a moderately unstable airmass. Of note,
the NAM looks too high with boundary layer moisture leading to
overdone instability. To complicate matters, latest runs of CAM`s
develop scattered convection through the morning, most likely in
association with isentropic upglide in warm air advection pattern.
Will carry a low confidence low pop through the morning and early
afternoon hours to account for this. Additional forcing for ascent may
come from weak shortwave moving across Nebraska today as well.

In any event, strongest convection is expected along the cold
front this evening and overnight. This activity should clear the
southeastern counties by mid Tuesday morning. Portions of the
area have been outlooked in a Slight Risk in SWODY1 and also
WPC`s Slight Risk for excessive rainfall.

Surface high pressure will build in behind this Tuesday and
should persist over the region through mid to late week.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Dry conditions expected for the beginning of the long term with
surface high pressure overhead. Region remains in weak, nearly
zonal flow aloft with flow becoming more northwesterly by the
weekend as ridging builds to our west. A cold front is progged to
drop through the region late Friday night which will is our next
chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Thunderstorms may affect KOFK 06-08z, but not confident anything
will hold together to affect KLNK/KOMA. Otherwise, VFR conditions
through the period. Additional thunderstorms may develop 22z-06z
as a cold front begins to move into the area.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...DeWald




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300538
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1238 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016
Forecast updated to reflect ongoing precipitation and
precipitation expected to move into southwest zones from Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Rain shower and thunderstorm development across eastern Colorado
and Wyoming is slowly moving towards western Nebraska. Current
thinking is that it will still be several hours before any shower
activity impacts our CWA. The shortwave is still expected to move
across the Nebraska panhandle this evening, promoting thunderstorm
development across central Nebraska. Even with the shortwave and
ample moisture, it`s difficult to forecast exactly how strong or
widespread these showers will be as model guidance has been
inconsistent. For now, have included between 30 to 40 percent
chance of showers mainly between 7pm and 1am as the uncertainty in
location and strength is low. This will very likely have to be
modified as the evening progresses and it becomes more certain
where thunderstorms will develop.

Again...inconsistency among models makes it hard to determine when
these showers tonight will eventually move out of the area. For the
most part it is fairly certain that thunderstorms will exit the
western portion of Nebraska and the CWA 3am. It is the eastern
portion that is uncertain. Some models have showers continuing into
the morning in the east, while others have it drying out everywhere.
My thinking is that it will move out for the most part across the
entire CWA by morning. However, to account for the inconsistency,
have left in slight chance pops across the east. Warm air advection
continues tomorrow, resulting in slightly warmer temperatures than
was originally in the forecast. Shifted everyone up a few degrees to
account for this.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Monday night through Wednesday...the NAM and GFS develop heavy
convection across the Cheyenne divide Monday evening. Other storms
should develop along a dryline bulge across Wrn Cherry County and
the Wrn Sandhills. CONRAD and the models suggest the system forming
on the Cheyenne divide will move east or southeast and present a
wind damage threat in addition to hail while the storms across Nrn
Neb remain more singular producing large hail as the main threat.

A blend of the SREF...GFS and NAM models produces a 70 pop Monday
evening from roughly Imperial to Valentine including Ogallala and
North Platte. The ECM is similar to other models but farther east by
about 50 miles. A modest 9C 700mb cap will be in place trapping 2500
to 3500 j/kg of cape. Thus storm development may wait until late
afternoon...near 23z or later to affect the fcst area.

The convective systems should exit the forecast area by 12z with
rain chances 30 percent or less Tuesday. Gone is the closed H700mb
low shown by the NAM yesterday. The Pacific cold front should drive
moisture quickly south and east of the fcst area with dew points in
the 40s Tuesday afternoon.

Pacific high pressure will build across the fcst area Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs around 70. The blended guidance plus bias
correction produces lows in the 40s Wednesday morning.

Wednesday night through Sunday...northwest flow takes hold of the
fcst area and drives Pacific high pressure into the Srn high plains
preventing moisture return. An upper level ridge will build into the
Cntl Rockies supporting warm and dry weather. The models show a sfc
trof moving through the fcst area Thursday night but moisture and
instability are very limited. A weak cold front follows on Friday.

Pops are limited to isolated Thursday through Sunday and that might
be generous. Recent heavy rain might support the moisture flux
needed for this rain activity. Highs in the 80s are expected and
Friday is shown to be the warmest day. An approaching cold front
could provide deep vertical mixing for highs in the mid 80s that day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Scattered showers and storms continue to push through parts of
western and north central Nebraska as of 05z. The strongest storms
are across north central Nebraska and may produce brief heavy rain
and hail, impacting areas around KONL. Storm acitivty will
diminish by morning. VFR conditions prevail Monday morning and
through much of the afternoon with southerly winds around 10 kts.
Next round of thunderstorm development is expected in western
Nebraska aorund 21z. Coverage will be greatest between 00z-06z.
Hail and gusty winds will be a threat with the thunderstorm
activity, however confidence is not high enough to include a
mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Flooding along the North Platte River and main branch of the Platte
River will continue. While water levels will remain fairly steady
over the next few days, moderate flooding will continue along the
North Platte River at North Platte and Lewellen. Minor flooding will
continue at Lisco and Brady (along the main branch of the Platte
River). Although the South Platte river is not anticipated to flood
at this time, water levels will remain elevated at both Roscoe and
North Platte.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Power
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Martin
HYDROLOGY...Kulik




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300339 AAB
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1039 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016
Forecast updated to reflect ongoing precipitation and
precipitation expected to move into southwest zones from Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Rain shower and thunderstorm development across eastern Colorado
and Wyoming is slowly moving towards western Nebraska. Current
thinking is that it will still be several hours before any shower
activity impacts our CWA. The shortwave is still expected to move
across the Nebraska panhandle this evening, promoting thunderstorm
development across central Nebraska. Even with the shortwave and
ample moisture, it`s difficult to forecast exactly how strong or
widespread these showers will be as model guidance has been
inconsistent. For now, have included between 30 to 40 percent
chance of showers mainly between 7pm and 1am as the uncertainty in
location and strength is low. This will very likely have to be
modified as the evening progresses and it becomes more certain
where thunderstorms will develop.

Again...inconsistency among models makes it hard to determine when
these showers tonight will eventually move out of the area. For the
most part it is fairly certain that thunderstorms will exit the
western portion of Nebraska and the CWA 3am. It is the eastern
portion that is uncertain. Some models have showers continuing into
the morning in the east, while others have it drying out everywhere.
My thinking is that it will move out for the most part across the
entire CWA by morning. However, to account for the inconsistency,
have left in slight chance pops across the east. Warm air advection
continues tomorrow, resulting in slightly warmer temperatures than
was originally in the forecast. Shifted everyone up a few degrees to
account for this.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Monday night through Wednesday...the NAM and GFS develop heavy
convection across the Cheyenne divide Monday evening. Other storms
should develop along a dryline bulge across Wrn Cherry County and
the Wrn Sandhills. CONRAD and the models suggest the system forming
on the Cheyenne divide will move east or southeast and present a
wind damage threat in addition to hail while the storms across Nrn
Neb remain more singular producing large hail as the main threat.

A blend of the SREF...GFS and NAM models produces a 70 pop Monday
evening from roughly Imperial to Valentine including Ogallala and
North Platte. The ECM is similar to other models but farther east by
about 50 miles. A modest 9C 700mb cap will be in place trapping 2500
to 3500 j/kg of cape. Thus storm development may wait until late
afternoon...near 23z or later to affect the fcst area.

The convective systems should exit the forecast area by 12z with
rain chances 30 percent or less Tuesday. Gone is the closed H700mb
low shown by the NAM yesterday. The Pacific cold front should drive
moisture quickly south and east of the fcst area with dew points in
the 40s Tuesday afternoon.

Pacific high pressure will build across the fcst area Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs around 70. The blended guidance plus bias
correction produces lows in the 40s Wednesday morning.

Wednesday night through Sunday...northwest flow takes hold of the
fcst area and drives Pacific high pressure into the Srn high plains
preventing moisture return. An upper level ridge will build into the
Cntl Rockies supporting warm and dry weather. The models show a sfc
trof moving through the fcst area Thursday night but moisture and
instability are very limited. A weak cold front follows on Friday.

Pops are limited to isolated Thursday through Sunday and that might
be generous. Recent heavy rain might support the moisture flux
needed for this rain activity. Highs in the 80s are expected and
Friday is shown to be the warmest day. An approaching cold front
could provide deep vertical mixing for highs in the mid 80s that day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 815 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

 Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect southwest and
north central Nebraska between KIML and KBBW through the late evening.
MVFR cigs and vsbys in thunderstorms. Some of these storms will
have large hail and heavy rain. VFR conditions expected over
western Nebraska through Monday afternoon.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Flooding along the North Platte River and main branch of the Platte
River will continue. While water levels will remain fairly steady
over the next few days, moderate flooding will continue along the
North Platte River at North Platte and Lewellen. Minor flooding will
continue at Lisco and Brady (along the main branch of the Platte
River). Although the South Platte river is not anticipated to flood
at this time, water levels will remain elevated at both Roscoe and
North Platte.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Power
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power
HYDROLOGY...Kulik




000
FXUS63 KLBF 292038
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
338 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Rain shower and thunderstorm development across eastern Colorado
and Wyoming is slowly moving towards western Nebraska. Current
thinking is that it will still be several hours before any shower
activity impacts our CWA. The shortwave is still expected to move
across the Nebraska panhandle this evening, promoting thunderstorm
development across central Nebraska. Even with the shortwave and
ample moisture, it`s difficult to forecast exactly how strong or
widespread these showers will be as model guidance has been
inconsistent. For now, have included between 30 to 40 percent
chance of showers mainly between 7pm and 1am as the uncertainty in
location and strength is low. This will very likely have to be
modified as the evening progresses and it becomes more certain
where thunderstorms will develop.

Again...inconsistency among models makes it hard to determine when
these showers tonight will eventually move out of the area. For the
most part it is fairly certain that thunderstorms will exit the
western portion of Nebraska and the CWA 3am. It is the eastern
portion that is uncertain. Some models have showers continuing into
the morning in the east, while others have it drying out everywhere.
My thinking is that it will move out for the most part across the
entire CWA by morning. However, to account for the inconsistency,
have left in slight chance pops across the east. Warm air advection
continues tomorrow, resulting in slightly warmer temperatures than
was originally in the forecast. Shifted everyone up a few degrees to
account for this.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Monday night through Wednesday...the NAM and GFS develop heavy
convection across the Cheyenne divide Monday evening. Other storms
should develop along a dryline bulge across Wrn Cherry County and
the Wrn Sandhills. CONRAD and the models suggest the system forming
on the Cheyenne divide will move east or southeast and present a
wind damage threat in addition to hail while the storms across Nrn
Neb remain more singular producing large hail as the main threat.

A blend of the SREF...GFS and NAM models produces a 70 pop Monday
evening from roughly Imperial to Valentine including Ogallala and
North Platte. The ECM is similar to other models but farther east by
about 50 miles. A modest 9C 700mb cap will be in place trapping 2500
to 3500 j/kg of cape. Thus storm development may wait until late
afternoon...near 23z or later to affect the fcst area.

The convective systems should exit the forecast area by 12z with
rain chances 30 percent or less Tuesday. Gone is the closed H700mb
low shown by the NAM yesterday. The Pacific cold front should drive
moisture quickly south and east of the fcst area with dew points in
the 40s Tuesday afternoon.

Pacific high pressure will build across the fcst area Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs around 70. The blended guidance plus bias
correction produces lows in the 40s Wednesday morning.

Wednesday night through Sunday...northwest flow takes hold of the
fcst area and drives Pacific high pressure into the Srn high plains
preventing moisture return. An upper level ridge will build into the
Cntl Rockies supporting warm and dry weather. The models show a sfc
trof moving through the fcst area Thursday night but moisture and
instability are very limited. A weak cold front follows on Friday.

Pops are limited to isolated Thursday through Sunday and that might
be generous. Recent heavy rain might support the moisture flux
needed for this rain activity. Highs in the 80s are expected and
Friday is shown to be the warmest day. An approaching cold front
could provide deep vertical mixing for highs in the mid 80s that day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Quiet aviation conditions through Sunday afternoon.
Scattered clouds will begin to develop across KVTN and KLBF by
mid- afternoon, however, ceilings will remain above 5000 feet.
Isolated thunderstorms arrive late evening at both terminals,
causing visibilities to drop and brief gusty winds. Thunderstorms
will push out of the area by daybreak with VFR conditions
returning for Monday morning.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Flooding along the North Platte River and main branch of the Platte
River will continue. While water levels will remain fairly steady
over the next few days, moderate flooding will continue along the
North Platte River at North Platte and Lewellen. Minor flooding will
continue at Lisco and Brady (along the main branch of the Platte
River). Although the South Platte river is not anticipated to flood
at this time, water levels will remain elevated at both Roscoe and
North Platte.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik
HYDROLOGY...Kulik




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