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000
FXUS63 KGID 240600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TEMPS ARE STILL MILD AND HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 30S. HOURLY
FCST TEMPS WERE RUNNING TOO COLD BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SO BLENDED
CURRENT OBS INTO THE FCST TO GET THE FCST TEMP CURVES BACK ON
TRACK.

NOT MUCH FLURRY ACTIVITY UPSTREAM...BUT A FEW FLURRIES CAN`T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SO MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
FCST. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST SKY COVER PER
SATELLITE TRENDS...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE HAVE HEARD OF SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO NEARLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONCE THE BAND OF RAIN
DEPARTS...WE ARE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REALLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY DECREASE TO SOME DEGREE EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME FLURRY MENTION
AS THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES IN.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN...CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE EVENT EITHER AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS FOR THIS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH/COOLER AIR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/KS.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHTEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...NO HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER OF ANY KIND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

A SOMEWHAT WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A DOWN-
SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE RELATIVELY WARMER DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL BE REALIZED.
THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE
A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOST PART. A BRIEF WARM UP IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE
40S...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENTS A COOLING TREND TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE
ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

OVERNIGHT: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 4-10K
FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TEMPO MVFR CEILING BETWEEN
2500-3000 FT...ESPECIALLY AT GRI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPEEDS
AND GUSTS. DURING TIMES WHEN WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS...SOME
LLWS IS PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HRS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND SETTLE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 240600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TEMPS ARE STILL MILD AND HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 30S. HOURLY
FCST TEMPS WERE RUNNING TOO COLD BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SO BLENDED
CURRENT OBS INTO THE FCST TO GET THE FCST TEMP CURVES BACK ON
TRACK.

NOT MUCH FLURRY ACTIVITY UPSTREAM...BUT A FEW FLURRIES CAN`T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SO MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
FCST. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST SKY COVER PER
SATELLITE TRENDS...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE HAVE HEARD OF SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO NEARLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONCE THE BAND OF RAIN
DEPARTS...WE ARE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REALLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY DECREASE TO SOME DEGREE EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME FLURRY MENTION
AS THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES IN.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN...CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE EVENT EITHER AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS FOR THIS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH/COOLER AIR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/KS.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHTEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...NO HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER OF ANY KIND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

A SOMEWHAT WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A DOWN-
SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE RELATIVELY WARMER DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL BE REALIZED.
THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE
A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOST PART. A BRIEF WARM UP IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE
40S...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENTS A COOLING TREND TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE
ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

OVERNIGHT: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 4-10K
FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TEMPO MVFR CEILING BETWEEN
2500-3000 FT...ESPECIALLY AT GRI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPEEDS
AND GUSTS. DURING TIMES WHEN WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS...SOME
LLWS IS PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HRS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND SETTLE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLBF 240526 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE NOTED...ONE SOUTH
OF GREENLAND...A SECOND NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...AND A THIRD OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. FURTHER SOUTH...THREE SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN...THE SECOND OVER SRN
UTAH...AND THE THIRD NEAR HOUSTON TX. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS THESE
DISTURBANCES OVER NRN ND...NWRN NM...AND MISSISSIPPI RESPECTIVELY.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA WITH A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE OZARKS. WEST
OF THE LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AS OF 2
PM CST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST
RANGED FROM 44 TO AINSWORTH TO 49 AT NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE KLNX RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RETURNS...WEAKER THAN WHAT PASSED
OVER KVTN EARLIER THIS EVENING PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW AND
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION TO 1 TO 2 MILES. SO...RADAR INDICATES
FLURRIES AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY DEAL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THEN CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PINE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE USHERING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT IT WILL BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY...FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 700MB...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF AN OMEGA SIGNAL IN THAT LAYER TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THE SATURATED
LAYER DOES EXTEND ABOVE THE LEVEL OF -10 DEGREE TEMPERATURES SO ICE
WILL BE INTRODUCED SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOESN/T PERSIST LONG SO ONLY
ANTICIPATING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW POTENTIAL BEFORE THE AREA JUST
BECOMES INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERING AROUND 03Z.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND FROM LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE AS STRATUS EXTENDS FROM
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA UP INTO MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY TO KEEP WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF...WHICH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
-10C...THINKING THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED TO THE
POINT OF KEEPING GUSTS OF 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 40-50KTS.

THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO DECREASE. WILL STILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE UP TO 35KTS. THINKING HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB ARE 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED. THE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE IN
PLACE WHILE MOISTURE ALSO IS PUSHED INTO THE AREA. ALSO...OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PINE RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED LIFT TO THAT AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY TO ALLOW THIS ENHANCED LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SO
HAVE ADDED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THESE AREAS PRIMARILY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MID RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A
WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
APPG THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...INDICATE SOME LIFT AROUND H7...WHICH IS COLLOCATED WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS MOIST
LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THIS LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK PER THE 290K SURFACE...HOWEVER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE UNDER 5MB AT THIS SURFACE...SO MEAGER
LIFT MAY LEAD TO PCPN. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW LIES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE PINE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING IN THE NWRN CWA. FCST
QPF`S WILL BE VERY LIGHT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S. ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND...STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85
TEMPS TUESDAY AND GOOD MIXING...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40S WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK FROM SRN ND
INTO NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BY WEDS MORNING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
FORECAST FOR WEDS MORNING. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A H7
WARM FRONT TRACKS FROM SERN WYOMING INTO SWRN SD. INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LEAVE THEM IN WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INVOF THE FRONT...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR LAST NIGHT HAD HIGHS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT 21...19
AND 25 RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING
HAD HIGHS OF 47...64 AND 38 FOR THE SAME DAYS! EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THOSE THREE
DAYS. WITH THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS
UTILIZED WHICH HAD HIGHS FOR NORTH PLATTE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BANK OF MVFR CIGS ON SATELLITE ACROSS ERN SD IS EXPECTED TO
SWING INTO KONL-KANW AND PERHAPS WEST TO KVTN OVERNIGHT. VFR IS
EXPECTED BY 15Z-18Z AS THIS LIFTS EAST. THEREAFTER THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SNOW DEVELOPING 18Z-
21Z OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY IFR CIGS. THIS
SNOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO NCNTL NEB MONDAY EVENING.
SO VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 240526 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE NOTED...ONE SOUTH
OF GREENLAND...A SECOND NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...AND A THIRD OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. FURTHER SOUTH...THREE SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN...THE SECOND OVER SRN
UTAH...AND THE THIRD NEAR HOUSTON TX. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS THESE
DISTURBANCES OVER NRN ND...NWRN NM...AND MISSISSIPPI RESPECTIVELY.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA WITH A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE OZARKS. WEST
OF THE LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AS OF 2
PM CST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST
RANGED FROM 44 TO AINSWORTH TO 49 AT NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE KLNX RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RETURNS...WEAKER THAN WHAT PASSED
OVER KVTN EARLIER THIS EVENING PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW AND
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION TO 1 TO 2 MILES. SO...RADAR INDICATES
FLURRIES AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY DEAL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THEN CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PINE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE USHERING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT IT WILL BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY...FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 700MB...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF AN OMEGA SIGNAL IN THAT LAYER TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THE SATURATED
LAYER DOES EXTEND ABOVE THE LEVEL OF -10 DEGREE TEMPERATURES SO ICE
WILL BE INTRODUCED SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOESN/T PERSIST LONG SO ONLY
ANTICIPATING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW POTENTIAL BEFORE THE AREA JUST
BECOMES INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERING AROUND 03Z.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND FROM LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE AS STRATUS EXTENDS FROM
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA UP INTO MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY TO KEEP WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF...WHICH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
-10C...THINKING THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED TO THE
POINT OF KEEPING GUSTS OF 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 40-50KTS.

THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO DECREASE. WILL STILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE UP TO 35KTS. THINKING HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB ARE 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED. THE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE IN
PLACE WHILE MOISTURE ALSO IS PUSHED INTO THE AREA. ALSO...OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PINE RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED LIFT TO THAT AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY TO ALLOW THIS ENHANCED LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SO
HAVE ADDED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THESE AREAS PRIMARILY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MID RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A
WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
APPG THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...INDICATE SOME LIFT AROUND H7...WHICH IS COLLOCATED WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS MOIST
LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THIS LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK PER THE 290K SURFACE...HOWEVER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE UNDER 5MB AT THIS SURFACE...SO MEAGER
LIFT MAY LEAD TO PCPN. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW LIES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE PINE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING IN THE NWRN CWA. FCST
QPF`S WILL BE VERY LIGHT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S. ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND...STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85
TEMPS TUESDAY AND GOOD MIXING...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40S WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK FROM SRN ND
INTO NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BY WEDS MORNING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
FORECAST FOR WEDS MORNING. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A H7
WARM FRONT TRACKS FROM SERN WYOMING INTO SWRN SD. INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LEAVE THEM IN WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INVOF THE FRONT...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR LAST NIGHT HAD HIGHS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT 21...19
AND 25 RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING
HAD HIGHS OF 47...64 AND 38 FOR THE SAME DAYS! EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THOSE THREE
DAYS. WITH THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS
UTILIZED WHICH HAD HIGHS FOR NORTH PLATTE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BANK OF MVFR CIGS ON SATELLITE ACROSS ERN SD IS EXPECTED TO
SWING INTO KONL-KANW AND PERHAPS WEST TO KVTN OVERNIGHT. VFR IS
EXPECTED BY 15Z-18Z AS THIS LIFTS EAST. THEREAFTER THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SNOW DEVELOPING 18Z-
21Z OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY IFR CIGS. THIS
SNOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO NCNTL NEB MONDAY EVENING.
SO VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 240526 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE NOTED...ONE SOUTH
OF GREENLAND...A SECOND NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...AND A THIRD OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. FURTHER SOUTH...THREE SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN...THE SECOND OVER SRN
UTAH...AND THE THIRD NEAR HOUSTON TX. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS THESE
DISTURBANCES OVER NRN ND...NWRN NM...AND MISSISSIPPI RESPECTIVELY.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA WITH A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE OZARKS. WEST
OF THE LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AS OF 2
PM CST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST
RANGED FROM 44 TO AINSWORTH TO 49 AT NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE KLNX RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RETURNS...WEAKER THAN WHAT PASSED
OVER KVTN EARLIER THIS EVENING PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW AND
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION TO 1 TO 2 MILES. SO...RADAR INDICATES
FLURRIES AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY DEAL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THEN CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PINE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE USHERING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT IT WILL BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY...FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 700MB...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF AN OMEGA SIGNAL IN THAT LAYER TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THE SATURATED
LAYER DOES EXTEND ABOVE THE LEVEL OF -10 DEGREE TEMPERATURES SO ICE
WILL BE INTRODUCED SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOESN/T PERSIST LONG SO ONLY
ANTICIPATING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW POTENTIAL BEFORE THE AREA JUST
BECOMES INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERING AROUND 03Z.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND FROM LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE AS STRATUS EXTENDS FROM
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA UP INTO MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY TO KEEP WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF...WHICH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
-10C...THINKING THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED TO THE
POINT OF KEEPING GUSTS OF 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 40-50KTS.

THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO DECREASE. WILL STILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE UP TO 35KTS. THINKING HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB ARE 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED. THE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE IN
PLACE WHILE MOISTURE ALSO IS PUSHED INTO THE AREA. ALSO...OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PINE RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED LIFT TO THAT AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY TO ALLOW THIS ENHANCED LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SO
HAVE ADDED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THESE AREAS PRIMARILY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MID RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A
WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
APPG THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...INDICATE SOME LIFT AROUND H7...WHICH IS COLLOCATED WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS MOIST
LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THIS LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK PER THE 290K SURFACE...HOWEVER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE UNDER 5MB AT THIS SURFACE...SO MEAGER
LIFT MAY LEAD TO PCPN. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW LIES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE PINE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING IN THE NWRN CWA. FCST
QPF`S WILL BE VERY LIGHT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S. ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND...STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85
TEMPS TUESDAY AND GOOD MIXING...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40S WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK FROM SRN ND
INTO NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BY WEDS MORNING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
FORECAST FOR WEDS MORNING. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A H7
WARM FRONT TRACKS FROM SERN WYOMING INTO SWRN SD. INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LEAVE THEM IN WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INVOF THE FRONT...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR LAST NIGHT HAD HIGHS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT 21...19
AND 25 RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING
HAD HIGHS OF 47...64 AND 38 FOR THE SAME DAYS! EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THOSE THREE
DAYS. WITH THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS
UTILIZED WHICH HAD HIGHS FOR NORTH PLATTE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BANK OF MVFR CIGS ON SATELLITE ACROSS ERN SD IS EXPECTED TO
SWING INTO KONL-KANW AND PERHAPS WEST TO KVTN OVERNIGHT. VFR IS
EXPECTED BY 15Z-18Z AS THIS LIFTS EAST. THEREAFTER THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SNOW DEVELOPING 18Z-
21Z OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY IFR CIGS. THIS
SNOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO NCNTL NEB MONDAY EVENING.
SO VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 240526 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE NOTED...ONE SOUTH
OF GREENLAND...A SECOND NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...AND A THIRD OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. FURTHER SOUTH...THREE SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN...THE SECOND OVER SRN
UTAH...AND THE THIRD NEAR HOUSTON TX. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS THESE
DISTURBANCES OVER NRN ND...NWRN NM...AND MISSISSIPPI RESPECTIVELY.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA WITH A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE OZARKS. WEST
OF THE LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AS OF 2
PM CST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST
RANGED FROM 44 TO AINSWORTH TO 49 AT NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE KLNX RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RETURNS...WEAKER THAN WHAT PASSED
OVER KVTN EARLIER THIS EVENING PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW AND
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION TO 1 TO 2 MILES. SO...RADAR INDICATES
FLURRIES AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY DEAL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THEN CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PINE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE USHERING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT IT WILL BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY...FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 700MB...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF AN OMEGA SIGNAL IN THAT LAYER TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THE SATURATED
LAYER DOES EXTEND ABOVE THE LEVEL OF -10 DEGREE TEMPERATURES SO ICE
WILL BE INTRODUCED SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOESN/T PERSIST LONG SO ONLY
ANTICIPATING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW POTENTIAL BEFORE THE AREA JUST
BECOMES INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERING AROUND 03Z.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND FROM LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE AS STRATUS EXTENDS FROM
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA UP INTO MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY TO KEEP WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF...WHICH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
-10C...THINKING THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED TO THE
POINT OF KEEPING GUSTS OF 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 40-50KTS.

THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO DECREASE. WILL STILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE UP TO 35KTS. THINKING HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB ARE 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED. THE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE IN
PLACE WHILE MOISTURE ALSO IS PUSHED INTO THE AREA. ALSO...OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PINE RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED LIFT TO THAT AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY TO ALLOW THIS ENHANCED LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SO
HAVE ADDED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THESE AREAS PRIMARILY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MID RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A
WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
APPG THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...INDICATE SOME LIFT AROUND H7...WHICH IS COLLOCATED WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS MOIST
LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THIS LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK PER THE 290K SURFACE...HOWEVER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE UNDER 5MB AT THIS SURFACE...SO MEAGER
LIFT MAY LEAD TO PCPN. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW LIES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE PINE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING IN THE NWRN CWA. FCST
QPF`S WILL BE VERY LIGHT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S. ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND...STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85
TEMPS TUESDAY AND GOOD MIXING...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40S WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK FROM SRN ND
INTO NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BY WEDS MORNING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
FORECAST FOR WEDS MORNING. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A H7
WARM FRONT TRACKS FROM SERN WYOMING INTO SWRN SD. INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LEAVE THEM IN WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INVOF THE FRONT...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR LAST NIGHT HAD HIGHS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT 21...19
AND 25 RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING
HAD HIGHS OF 47...64 AND 38 FOR THE SAME DAYS! EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THOSE THREE
DAYS. WITH THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS
UTILIZED WHICH HAD HIGHS FOR NORTH PLATTE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A BANK OF MVFR CIGS ON SATELLITE ACROSS ERN SD IS EXPECTED TO
SWING INTO KONL-KANW AND PERHAPS WEST TO KVTN OVERNIGHT. VFR IS
EXPECTED BY 15Z-18Z AS THIS LIFTS EAST. THEREAFTER THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SNOW DEVELOPING 18Z-
21Z OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY IFR CIGS. THIS
SNOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO NCNTL NEB MONDAY EVENING.
SO VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KOAX 240523
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH 145KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM OR/WA
INTO NV BEHIND THE TROUGH.  850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN
SOUTHERN MB/NORTHERN ND/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL
KS/WESTERN OK...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AB...COOL-DOWN IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER
THIS MONTH.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL
OK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW IN WESTERN ONT
THROUGH EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA/NORTHWESTERN MO...AND WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  TONIGHT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRATOCU DECK SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THESE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX PROVIDING JUST A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
LIFT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MAKE SOME
RECOVERY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.

THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT...MODELS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR COMPACT UPPER LOW DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CARRY A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEB.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING...AND IF
SO...WHERE/WHEN...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN CWA.  THANKSGIVING DAY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE
IN THE REGION...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...THOUGH BLACK FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER ON FRIDAY.  WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND
IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20-32 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...FINALLY DIMINISHING BY 18-24 HOURS. CLOUD DECK
JUST ABOVE VFR 3500-4000 FEET AT ALL TAF SITES...BECOMING MVFR BY
07-09Z AT KOMA/KOFK. COULD ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES AT KOFK FROM
08-12Z. CONDITIONS LIKELY BECOME VFR AGAIN BY 16-18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 240523
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH 145KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM OR/WA
INTO NV BEHIND THE TROUGH.  850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN
SOUTHERN MB/NORTHERN ND/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL
KS/WESTERN OK...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AB...COOL-DOWN IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER
THIS MONTH.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL
OK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW IN WESTERN ONT
THROUGH EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA/NORTHWESTERN MO...AND WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  TONIGHT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRATOCU DECK SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THESE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX PROVIDING JUST A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
LIFT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MAKE SOME
RECOVERY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.

THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT...MODELS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR COMPACT UPPER LOW DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CARRY A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEB.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING...AND IF
SO...WHERE/WHEN...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN CWA.  THANKSGIVING DAY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE
IN THE REGION...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...THOUGH BLACK FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER ON FRIDAY.  WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND
IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20-32 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...FINALLY DIMINISHING BY 18-24 HOURS. CLOUD DECK
JUST ABOVE VFR 3500-4000 FEET AT ALL TAF SITES...BECOMING MVFR BY
07-09Z AT KOMA/KOFK. COULD ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES AT KOFK FROM
08-12Z. CONDITIONS LIKELY BECOME VFR AGAIN BY 16-18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 240523
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH 145KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM OR/WA
INTO NV BEHIND THE TROUGH.  850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN
SOUTHERN MB/NORTHERN ND/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL
KS/WESTERN OK...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AB...COOL-DOWN IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER
THIS MONTH.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL
OK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW IN WESTERN ONT
THROUGH EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA/NORTHWESTERN MO...AND WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  TONIGHT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRATOCU DECK SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THESE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX PROVIDING JUST A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
LIFT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MAKE SOME
RECOVERY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.

THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT...MODELS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR COMPACT UPPER LOW DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CARRY A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEB.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING...AND IF
SO...WHERE/WHEN...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN CWA.  THANKSGIVING DAY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE
IN THE REGION...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...THOUGH BLACK FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER ON FRIDAY.  WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND
IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20-32 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...FINALLY DIMINISHING BY 18-24 HOURS. CLOUD DECK
JUST ABOVE VFR 3500-4000 FEET AT ALL TAF SITES...BECOMING MVFR BY
07-09Z AT KOMA/KOFK. COULD ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES AT KOFK FROM
08-12Z. CONDITIONS LIKELY BECOME VFR AGAIN BY 16-18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 240523
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH 145KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM OR/WA
INTO NV BEHIND THE TROUGH.  850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN
SOUTHERN MB/NORTHERN ND/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL
KS/WESTERN OK...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AB...COOL-DOWN IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER
THIS MONTH.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL
OK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW IN WESTERN ONT
THROUGH EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA/NORTHWESTERN MO...AND WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  TONIGHT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRATOCU DECK SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THESE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX PROVIDING JUST A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
LIFT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MAKE SOME
RECOVERY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.

THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT...MODELS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR COMPACT UPPER LOW DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CARRY A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEB.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING...AND IF
SO...WHERE/WHEN...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN CWA.  THANKSGIVING DAY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE
IN THE REGION...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...THOUGH BLACK FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER ON FRIDAY.  WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND
IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20-32 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...FINALLY DIMINISHING BY 18-24 HOURS. CLOUD DECK
JUST ABOVE VFR 3500-4000 FEET AT ALL TAF SITES...BECOMING MVFR BY
07-09Z AT KOMA/KOFK. COULD ALSO SEE SOME FLURRIES AT KOFK FROM
08-12Z. CONDITIONS LIKELY BECOME VFR AGAIN BY 16-18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 232335
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
535 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH 145KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM OR/WA
INTO NV BEHIND THE TROUGH.  850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN
SOUTHERN MB/NORTHERN ND/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL
KS/WESTERN OK...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AB...COOL-DOWN IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER
THIS MONTH.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL
OK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW IN WESTERN ONT
THROUGH EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA/NORTHWESTERN MO...AND WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  TONIGHT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRATOCU DECK SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THESE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX PROVIDING JUST A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
LIFT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MAKE SOME
RECOVERY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.

THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT...MODELS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR COMPACT UPPER LOW DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CARRY A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEB.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING...AND IF
SO...WHERE/WHEN...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN CWA.  THANKSGIVING DAY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE
IN THE REGION...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...THOUGH BLACK FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER ON FRIDAY.  WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND
IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING MVFR CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
AT KOFK BY 04Z...AND KOMA/KLNK BY 07Z. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
FLURRIES AT KOFK 06-10Z. DEPENDING ON HOW THEY DEVELOP...MAY HAVE
TO ADD TO KOMA LATER ON...BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR BY 16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
AT 18 TO 24 KNOTS SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 TO 34 KNOTS AT
TIMES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 232335
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
535 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH 145KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM OR/WA
INTO NV BEHIND THE TROUGH.  850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN
SOUTHERN MB/NORTHERN ND/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL
KS/WESTERN OK...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AB...COOL-DOWN IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER
THIS MONTH.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL
OK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW IN WESTERN ONT
THROUGH EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA/NORTHWESTERN MO...AND WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  TONIGHT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRATOCU DECK SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THESE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX PROVIDING JUST A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
LIFT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MAKE SOME
RECOVERY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.

THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT...MODELS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR COMPACT UPPER LOW DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CARRY A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEB.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING...AND IF
SO...WHERE/WHEN...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN CWA.  THANKSGIVING DAY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE
IN THE REGION...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...THOUGH BLACK FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER ON FRIDAY.  WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND
IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING MVFR CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
AT KOFK BY 04Z...AND KOMA/KLNK BY 07Z. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
FLURRIES AT KOFK 06-10Z. DEPENDING ON HOW THEY DEVELOP...MAY HAVE
TO ADD TO KOMA LATER ON...BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR BY 16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
AT 18 TO 24 KNOTS SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 TO 34 KNOTS AT
TIMES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 232335
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
535 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH 145KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM OR/WA
INTO NV BEHIND THE TROUGH.  850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN
SOUTHERN MB/NORTHERN ND/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL
KS/WESTERN OK...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AB...COOL-DOWN IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER
THIS MONTH.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL
OK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW IN WESTERN ONT
THROUGH EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA/NORTHWESTERN MO...AND WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  TONIGHT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRATOCU DECK SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THESE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX PROVIDING JUST A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
LIFT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MAKE SOME
RECOVERY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.

THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT...MODELS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR COMPACT UPPER LOW DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CARRY A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEB.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING...AND IF
SO...WHERE/WHEN...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN CWA.  THANKSGIVING DAY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE
IN THE REGION...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...THOUGH BLACK FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER ON FRIDAY.  WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND
IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING MVFR CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
AT KOFK BY 04Z...AND KOMA/KLNK BY 07Z. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
FLURRIES AT KOFK 06-10Z. DEPENDING ON HOW THEY DEVELOP...MAY HAVE
TO ADD TO KOMA LATER ON...BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR BY 16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
AT 18 TO 24 KNOTS SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 TO 34 KNOTS AT
TIMES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 232335
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
535 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH 145KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM OR/WA
INTO NV BEHIND THE TROUGH.  850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN
SOUTHERN MB/NORTHERN ND/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL
KS/WESTERN OK...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AB...COOL-DOWN IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER
THIS MONTH.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL
OK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW IN WESTERN ONT
THROUGH EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA/NORTHWESTERN MO...AND WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  TONIGHT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRATOCU DECK SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THESE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX PROVIDING JUST A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
LIFT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MAKE SOME
RECOVERY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.

THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT...MODELS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR COMPACT UPPER LOW DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CARRY A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEB.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING...AND IF
SO...WHERE/WHEN...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN CWA.  THANKSGIVING DAY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE
IN THE REGION...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...THOUGH BLACK FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER ON FRIDAY.  WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND
IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING MVFR CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
AT KOFK BY 04Z...AND KOMA/KLNK BY 07Z. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
FLURRIES AT KOFK 06-10Z. DEPENDING ON HOW THEY DEVELOP...MAY HAVE
TO ADD TO KOMA LATER ON...BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR BY 16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
AT 18 TO 24 KNOTS SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 TO 34 KNOTS AT
TIMES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KLBF 232332 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
532 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE NOTED...ONE SOUTH
OF GREENLAND...A SECOND NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...AND A THIRD OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. FURTHER SOUTH...THREE SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN...THE SECOND OVER SRN
UTAH...AND THE THIRD NEAR HOUSTON TX. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS THESE
DISTURBANCES OVER NRN ND...NWRN NM...AND MISSISSIPPI RESPECTIVELY.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA WITH A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE OZARKS. WEST
OF THE LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AS OF 2
PM CST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST
RANGED FROM 44 TO AINSWORTH TO 49 AT NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY DEAL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THEN CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PINE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE USHERING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT IT WILL BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY...FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 700MB...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF AN OMEGA SIGNAL IN THAT LAYER TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THE SATURATED
LAYER DOES EXTEND ABOVE THE LEVEL OF -10 DEGREE TEMPERATURES SO ICE
WILL BE INTRODUCED SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOESN/T PERSIST LONG SO ONLY
ANTICIPATING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW POTENTIAL BEFORE THE AREA JUST
BECOMES INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERING AROUND 03Z.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND FROM LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE AS STRATUS EXTENDS FROM
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA UP INTO MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY TO KEEP WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF...WHICH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
-10C...THINKING THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED TO THE
POINT OF KEEPING GUSTS OF 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 40-50KTS.

THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO DECREASE. WILL STILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE UP TO 35KTS. THINKING HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB ARE 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED. THE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE IN
PLACE WHILE MOISTURE ALSO IS PUSHED INTO THE AREA. ALSO...OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PINE RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED LIFT TO THAT AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY TO ALLOW THIS ENHANCED LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SO
HAVE ADDED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THESE AREAS PRIMARILY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MID RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A
WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
APPG THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...INDICATE SOME LIFT AROUND H7...WHICH IS COLLOCATED WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS MOIST
LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THIS LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK PER THE 290K SURFACE...HOWEVER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE UNDER 5MB AT THIS SURFACE...SO MEAGER
LIFT MAY LEAD TO PCPN. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW LIES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE PINE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING IN THE NWRN CWA. FCST
QPF`S WILL BE VERY LIGHT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S. ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND...STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85
TEMPS TUESDAY AND GOOD MIXING...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40S WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK FROM SRN ND
INTO NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BY WEDS MORNING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
FORECAST FOR WEDS MORNING. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A H7
WARM FRONT TRACKS FROM SERN WYOMING INTO SWRN SD. INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LEAVE THEM IN WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INVOF THE FRONT...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR LAST NIGHT HAD HIGHS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT 21...19
AND 25 RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING
HAD HIGHS OF 47...64 AND 38 FOR THE SAME DAYS! EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THOSE THREE
DAYS. WITH THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS
UTILIZED WHICH HAD HIGHS FOR NORTH PLATTE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NRN NEB PRODUCING
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRAKSA HIGHWAY 2 THIS
EVENING AND THEN MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING 15Z-18Z.

A SECOND ROUND OF MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY/NWRN NEB MONDAY AFTN.
VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 232332 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
532 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE NOTED...ONE SOUTH
OF GREENLAND...A SECOND NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...AND A THIRD OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. FURTHER SOUTH...THREE SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN...THE SECOND OVER SRN
UTAH...AND THE THIRD NEAR HOUSTON TX. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS THESE
DISTURBANCES OVER NRN ND...NWRN NM...AND MISSISSIPPI RESPECTIVELY.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA WITH A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE OZARKS. WEST
OF THE LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AS OF 2
PM CST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST
RANGED FROM 44 TO AINSWORTH TO 49 AT NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY DEAL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THEN CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PINE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE USHERING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT IT WILL BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY...FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 700MB...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF AN OMEGA SIGNAL IN THAT LAYER TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THE SATURATED
LAYER DOES EXTEND ABOVE THE LEVEL OF -10 DEGREE TEMPERATURES SO ICE
WILL BE INTRODUCED SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOESN/T PERSIST LONG SO ONLY
ANTICIPATING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW POTENTIAL BEFORE THE AREA JUST
BECOMES INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERING AROUND 03Z.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND FROM LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE AS STRATUS EXTENDS FROM
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA UP INTO MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY TO KEEP WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF...WHICH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
-10C...THINKING THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED TO THE
POINT OF KEEPING GUSTS OF 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 40-50KTS.

THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO DECREASE. WILL STILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE UP TO 35KTS. THINKING HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB ARE 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED. THE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE IN
PLACE WHILE MOISTURE ALSO IS PUSHED INTO THE AREA. ALSO...OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PINE RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED LIFT TO THAT AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY TO ALLOW THIS ENHANCED LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SO
HAVE ADDED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THESE AREAS PRIMARILY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MID RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A
WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
APPG THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...INDICATE SOME LIFT AROUND H7...WHICH IS COLLOCATED WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS MOIST
LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THIS LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK PER THE 290K SURFACE...HOWEVER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE UNDER 5MB AT THIS SURFACE...SO MEAGER
LIFT MAY LEAD TO PCPN. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW LIES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE PINE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING IN THE NWRN CWA. FCST
QPF`S WILL BE VERY LIGHT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S. ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND...STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85
TEMPS TUESDAY AND GOOD MIXING...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40S WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK FROM SRN ND
INTO NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BY WEDS MORNING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
FORECAST FOR WEDS MORNING. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A H7
WARM FRONT TRACKS FROM SERN WYOMING INTO SWRN SD. INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LEAVE THEM IN WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INVOF THE FRONT...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR LAST NIGHT HAD HIGHS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT 21...19
AND 25 RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING
HAD HIGHS OF 47...64 AND 38 FOR THE SAME DAYS! EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THOSE THREE
DAYS. WITH THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS
UTILIZED WHICH HAD HIGHS FOR NORTH PLATTE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NRN NEB PRODUCING
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF NEBRAKSA HIGHWAY 2 THIS
EVENING AND THEN MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING 15Z-18Z.

A SECOND ROUND OF MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY/NWRN NEB MONDAY AFTN.
VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KGID 232328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
528 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE HAVE HEARD OF SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO NEARLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONCE THE BAND OF RAIN
DEPARTS...WE ARE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REALLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY DECREASE TO SOME DEGREE EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME FLURRY MENTION
AS THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES IN.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN...CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE EVENT EITHER AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS FOR THIS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH/COOLER AIR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/KS.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHTEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...NO HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER OF ANY KIND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

A SOMEWHAT WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A DOWN-
SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE RELATIVELY WARMER DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL BE REALIZED.
THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE
A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOST PART. A BRIEF WARM UP IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE
40S...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENTS A COOLING TREND TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE
ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS NEBRASKA.
MAY SEE SOME NEAR MVFR CIGS WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT KEPT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AS OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM OF THE TERMINALS ARE INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. LATEST MODEL DATA IS INDICATING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER ABOUT 24/18Z...SO FORECAST WINDS
TO DROP TO LESS THAN 20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 232328
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
528 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE HAVE HEARD OF SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO NEARLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONCE THE BAND OF RAIN
DEPARTS...WE ARE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REALLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY DECREASE TO SOME DEGREE EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME FLURRY MENTION
AS THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES IN.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN...CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE EVENT EITHER AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS FOR THIS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH/COOLER AIR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/KS.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHTEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...NO HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER OF ANY KIND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

A SOMEWHAT WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A DOWN-
SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE RELATIVELY WARMER DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL BE REALIZED.
THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE
A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOST PART. A BRIEF WARM UP IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE
40S...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENTS A COOLING TREND TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE
ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS NEBRASKA.
MAY SEE SOME NEAR MVFR CIGS WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT KEPT VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AS OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM OF THE TERMINALS ARE INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. LATEST MODEL DATA IS INDICATING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER ABOUT 24/18Z...SO FORECAST WINDS
TO DROP TO LESS THAN 20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KLBF 232156
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE NOTED...ONE SOUTH
OF GREENLAND...A SECOND NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...AND A THIRD OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. FURTHER SOUTH...THREE SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN...THE SECOND OVER SRN
UTAH...AND THE THIRD NEAR HOUSTON TX. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS THESE
DISTURBANCES OVER NRN ND...NWRN NM...AND MISSISSIPPI RESPECTIVELY.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA WITH A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE OZARKS. WEST
OF THE LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AS OF 2
PM CST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST
RANGED FROM 44 TO AINSWORTH TO 49 AT NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY DEAL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THEN CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PINE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE USHERING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT IT WILL BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY...FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 700MB...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF AN OMEGA SIGNAL IN THAT LAYER TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THE SATURATED
LAYER DOES EXTEND ABOVE THE LEVEL OF -10 DEGREE TEMPERATURES SO ICE
WILL BE INTRODUCED SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOESN/T PERSIST LONG SO ONLY
ANTICIPATING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW POTENTIAL BEFORE THE AREA JUST
BECOMES INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERING AROUND 03Z.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND FROM LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE AS STRATUS EXTENDS FROM
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA UP INTO MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY TO KEEP WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF...WHICH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
-10C...THINKING THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED TO THE
POINT OF KEEPING GUSTS OF 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 40-50KTS.

THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO DECREASE. WILL STILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE UP TO 35KTS. THINKING HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB ARE 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED. THE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE IN
PLACE WHILE MOISTURE ALSO IS PUSHED INTO THE AREA. ALSO...OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PINE RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED LIFT TO THAT AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY TO ALLOW THIS ENHANCED LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SO
HAVE ADDED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THESE AREAS PRIMARILY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MID RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A
WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
APPG THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...INDICATE SOME LIFT AROUND H7...WHICH IS COLLOCATED WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS MOIST
LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THIS LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK PER THE 290K SURFACE...HOWEVER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE UNDER 5MB AT THIS SURFACE...SO MEAGER
LIFT MAY LEAD TO PCPN. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW LIES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE PINE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING IN THE NWRN CWA. FCST
QPF`S WILL BE VERY LIGHT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S. ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND...STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85
TEMPS TUESDAY AND GOOD MIXING...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40S WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK FROM SRN ND
INTO NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BY WEDS MORNING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
FORECAST FOR WEDS MORNING. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A H7
WARM FRONT TRACKS FROM SERN WYOMING INTO SWRN SD. INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LEAVE THEM IN WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INVOF THE FRONT...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR LAST NIGHT HAD HIGHS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT 21...19
AND 25 RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING
HAD HIGHS OF 47...64 AND 38 FOR THE SAME DAYS! EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THOSE THREE
DAYS. WITH THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS
UTILIZED WHICH HAD HIGHS FOR NORTH PLATTE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IS REDUCED...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY TO
STRONG INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SO KEPT GUSTS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO SOME MVFR
CEILINGS. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SO DID
PUT 5SM VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN THE KVTN FORECAST. THIS SHOULD
ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS BUT STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY STAY IN
PLACE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES...WHILE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 232156
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE NOTED...ONE SOUTH
OF GREENLAND...A SECOND NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...AND A THIRD OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. FURTHER SOUTH...THREE SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN...THE SECOND OVER SRN
UTAH...AND THE THIRD NEAR HOUSTON TX. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS THESE
DISTURBANCES OVER NRN ND...NWRN NM...AND MISSISSIPPI RESPECTIVELY.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA WITH A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE OZARKS. WEST
OF THE LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AS OF 2
PM CST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST
RANGED FROM 44 TO AINSWORTH TO 49 AT NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY DEAL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THEN CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PINE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE USHERING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT IT WILL BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY...FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 700MB...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF AN OMEGA SIGNAL IN THAT LAYER TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THE SATURATED
LAYER DOES EXTEND ABOVE THE LEVEL OF -10 DEGREE TEMPERATURES SO ICE
WILL BE INTRODUCED SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOESN/T PERSIST LONG SO ONLY
ANTICIPATING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW POTENTIAL BEFORE THE AREA JUST
BECOMES INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERING AROUND 03Z.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND FROM LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE AS STRATUS EXTENDS FROM
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA UP INTO MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY TO KEEP WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF...WHICH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
-10C...THINKING THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED TO THE
POINT OF KEEPING GUSTS OF 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 40-50KTS.

THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO DECREASE. WILL STILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE UP TO 35KTS. THINKING HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB ARE 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED. THE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE IN
PLACE WHILE MOISTURE ALSO IS PUSHED INTO THE AREA. ALSO...OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PINE RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED LIFT TO THAT AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY TO ALLOW THIS ENHANCED LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SO
HAVE ADDED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THESE AREAS PRIMARILY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MID RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A
WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
APPG THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...INDICATE SOME LIFT AROUND H7...WHICH IS COLLOCATED WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS MOIST
LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THIS LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK PER THE 290K SURFACE...HOWEVER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE UNDER 5MB AT THIS SURFACE...SO MEAGER
LIFT MAY LEAD TO PCPN. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW LIES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE PINE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING IN THE NWRN CWA. FCST
QPF`S WILL BE VERY LIGHT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S. ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND...STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85
TEMPS TUESDAY AND GOOD MIXING...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40S WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK FROM SRN ND
INTO NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BY WEDS MORNING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
FORECAST FOR WEDS MORNING. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A H7
WARM FRONT TRACKS FROM SERN WYOMING INTO SWRN SD. INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LEAVE THEM IN WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INVOF THE FRONT...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR LAST NIGHT HAD HIGHS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT 21...19
AND 25 RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING
HAD HIGHS OF 47...64 AND 38 FOR THE SAME DAYS! EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THOSE THREE
DAYS. WITH THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS
UTILIZED WHICH HAD HIGHS FOR NORTH PLATTE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IS REDUCED...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY TO
STRONG INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SO KEPT GUSTS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO SOME MVFR
CEILINGS. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SO DID
PUT 5SM VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN THE KVTN FORECAST. THIS SHOULD
ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS BUT STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY STAY IN
PLACE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES...WHILE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 232156
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE NOTED...ONE SOUTH
OF GREENLAND...A SECOND NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...AND A THIRD OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. FURTHER SOUTH...THREE SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN...THE SECOND OVER SRN
UTAH...AND THE THIRD NEAR HOUSTON TX. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS THESE
DISTURBANCES OVER NRN ND...NWRN NM...AND MISSISSIPPI RESPECTIVELY.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA WITH A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE OZARKS. WEST
OF THE LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AS OF 2
PM CST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST
RANGED FROM 44 TO AINSWORTH TO 49 AT NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY DEAL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THEN CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PINE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE USHERING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT IT WILL BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY...FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 700MB...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF AN OMEGA SIGNAL IN THAT LAYER TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THE SATURATED
LAYER DOES EXTEND ABOVE THE LEVEL OF -10 DEGREE TEMPERATURES SO ICE
WILL BE INTRODUCED SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOESN/T PERSIST LONG SO ONLY
ANTICIPATING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW POTENTIAL BEFORE THE AREA JUST
BECOMES INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERING AROUND 03Z.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND FROM LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE AS STRATUS EXTENDS FROM
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA UP INTO MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY TO KEEP WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF...WHICH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
-10C...THINKING THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED TO THE
POINT OF KEEPING GUSTS OF 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 40-50KTS.

THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO DECREASE. WILL STILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE UP TO 35KTS. THINKING HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB ARE 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED. THE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE IN
PLACE WHILE MOISTURE ALSO IS PUSHED INTO THE AREA. ALSO...OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PINE RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED LIFT TO THAT AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY TO ALLOW THIS ENHANCED LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SO
HAVE ADDED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THESE AREAS PRIMARILY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MID RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A
WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
APPG THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...INDICATE SOME LIFT AROUND H7...WHICH IS COLLOCATED WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS MOIST
LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THIS LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK PER THE 290K SURFACE...HOWEVER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE UNDER 5MB AT THIS SURFACE...SO MEAGER
LIFT MAY LEAD TO PCPN. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW LIES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE PINE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING IN THE NWRN CWA. FCST
QPF`S WILL BE VERY LIGHT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S. ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND...STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85
TEMPS TUESDAY AND GOOD MIXING...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40S WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK FROM SRN ND
INTO NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BY WEDS MORNING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
FORECAST FOR WEDS MORNING. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A H7
WARM FRONT TRACKS FROM SERN WYOMING INTO SWRN SD. INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LEAVE THEM IN WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INVOF THE FRONT...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR LAST NIGHT HAD HIGHS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT 21...19
AND 25 RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING
HAD HIGHS OF 47...64 AND 38 FOR THE SAME DAYS! EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THOSE THREE
DAYS. WITH THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS
UTILIZED WHICH HAD HIGHS FOR NORTH PLATTE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IS REDUCED...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY TO
STRONG INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SO KEPT GUSTS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO SOME MVFR
CEILINGS. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SO DID
PUT 5SM VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN THE KVTN FORECAST. THIS SHOULD
ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS BUT STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY STAY IN
PLACE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES...WHILE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 232156
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE NOTED...ONE SOUTH
OF GREENLAND...A SECOND NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...AND A THIRD OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. FURTHER SOUTH...THREE SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN...THE SECOND OVER SRN
UTAH...AND THE THIRD NEAR HOUSTON TX. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS THESE
DISTURBANCES OVER NRN ND...NWRN NM...AND MISSISSIPPI RESPECTIVELY.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA WITH A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE OZARKS. WEST
OF THE LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AS OF 2
PM CST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST
RANGED FROM 44 TO AINSWORTH TO 49 AT NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY DEAL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THEN CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PINE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE USHERING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT IT WILL BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY...FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 700MB...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF AN OMEGA SIGNAL IN THAT LAYER TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THE SATURATED
LAYER DOES EXTEND ABOVE THE LEVEL OF -10 DEGREE TEMPERATURES SO ICE
WILL BE INTRODUCED SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOESN/T PERSIST LONG SO ONLY
ANTICIPATING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW POTENTIAL BEFORE THE AREA JUST
BECOMES INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERING AROUND 03Z.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND FROM LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE AS STRATUS EXTENDS FROM
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA UP INTO MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY TO KEEP WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF...WHICH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
-10C...THINKING THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED TO THE
POINT OF KEEPING GUSTS OF 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 40-50KTS.

THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO DECREASE. WILL STILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE UP TO 35KTS. THINKING HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB ARE 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED. THE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE IN
PLACE WHILE MOISTURE ALSO IS PUSHED INTO THE AREA. ALSO...OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PINE RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED LIFT TO THAT AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY TO ALLOW THIS ENHANCED LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SO
HAVE ADDED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THESE AREAS PRIMARILY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MID RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A
WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
APPG THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...INDICATE SOME LIFT AROUND H7...WHICH IS COLLOCATED WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS MOIST
LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THIS LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK PER THE 290K SURFACE...HOWEVER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE UNDER 5MB AT THIS SURFACE...SO MEAGER
LIFT MAY LEAD TO PCPN. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW LIES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE PINE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING IN THE NWRN CWA. FCST
QPF`S WILL BE VERY LIGHT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S. ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND...STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85
TEMPS TUESDAY AND GOOD MIXING...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40S WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK FROM SRN ND
INTO NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BY WEDS MORNING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
FORECAST FOR WEDS MORNING. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A H7
WARM FRONT TRACKS FROM SERN WYOMING INTO SWRN SD. INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LEAVE THEM IN WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INVOF THE FRONT...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR LAST NIGHT HAD HIGHS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT 21...19
AND 25 RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING
HAD HIGHS OF 47...64 AND 38 FOR THE SAME DAYS! EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THOSE THREE
DAYS. WITH THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS
UTILIZED WHICH HAD HIGHS FOR NORTH PLATTE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IS REDUCED...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY TO
STRONG INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SO KEPT GUSTS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO SOME MVFR
CEILINGS. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SO DID
PUT 5SM VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN THE KVTN FORECAST. THIS SHOULD
ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS BUT STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY STAY IN
PLACE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES...WHILE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 232156
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE NOTED...ONE SOUTH
OF GREENLAND...A SECOND NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...AND A THIRD OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. FURTHER SOUTH...THREE SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN...THE SECOND OVER SRN
UTAH...AND THE THIRD NEAR HOUSTON TX. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS THESE
DISTURBANCES OVER NRN ND...NWRN NM...AND MISSISSIPPI RESPECTIVELY.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA WITH A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE OZARKS. WEST
OF THE LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AS OF 2
PM CST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST
RANGED FROM 44 TO AINSWORTH TO 49 AT NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY DEAL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THEN CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PINE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE USHERING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT IT WILL BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY...FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 700MB...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF AN OMEGA SIGNAL IN THAT LAYER TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THE SATURATED
LAYER DOES EXTEND ABOVE THE LEVEL OF -10 DEGREE TEMPERATURES SO ICE
WILL BE INTRODUCED SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOESN/T PERSIST LONG SO ONLY
ANTICIPATING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW POTENTIAL BEFORE THE AREA JUST
BECOMES INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERING AROUND 03Z.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND FROM LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE AS STRATUS EXTENDS FROM
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA UP INTO MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY TO KEEP WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF...WHICH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
-10C...THINKING THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED TO THE
POINT OF KEEPING GUSTS OF 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 40-50KTS.

THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO DECREASE. WILL STILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE UP TO 35KTS. THINKING HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB ARE 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED. THE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE IN
PLACE WHILE MOISTURE ALSO IS PUSHED INTO THE AREA. ALSO...OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PINE RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED LIFT TO THAT AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY TO ALLOW THIS ENHANCED LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SO
HAVE ADDED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THESE AREAS PRIMARILY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MID RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A
WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
APPG THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...INDICATE SOME LIFT AROUND H7...WHICH IS COLLOCATED WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS MOIST
LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THIS LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK PER THE 290K SURFACE...HOWEVER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE UNDER 5MB AT THIS SURFACE...SO MEAGER
LIFT MAY LEAD TO PCPN. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW LIES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE PINE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING IN THE NWRN CWA. FCST
QPF`S WILL BE VERY LIGHT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S. ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND...STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85
TEMPS TUESDAY AND GOOD MIXING...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40S WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK FROM SRN ND
INTO NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BY WEDS MORNING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
FORECAST FOR WEDS MORNING. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A H7
WARM FRONT TRACKS FROM SERN WYOMING INTO SWRN SD. INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LEAVE THEM IN WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INVOF THE FRONT...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR LAST NIGHT HAD HIGHS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT 21...19
AND 25 RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING
HAD HIGHS OF 47...64 AND 38 FOR THE SAME DAYS! EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THOSE THREE
DAYS. WITH THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS
UTILIZED WHICH HAD HIGHS FOR NORTH PLATTE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IS REDUCED...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY TO
STRONG INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SO KEPT GUSTS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO SOME MVFR
CEILINGS. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SO DID
PUT 5SM VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN THE KVTN FORECAST. THIS SHOULD
ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS BUT STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY STAY IN
PLACE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES...WHILE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 232156
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS WERE NOTED...ONE SOUTH
OF GREENLAND...A SECOND NORTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...AND A THIRD OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. FURTHER SOUTH...THREE SHORTWAVES
WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN...THE SECOND OVER SRN
UTAH...AND THE THIRD NEAR HOUSTON TX. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS THESE
DISTURBANCES OVER NRN ND...NWRN NM...AND MISSISSIPPI RESPECTIVELY.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA WITH A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SSW INTO THE OZARKS. WEST
OF THE LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WINDY CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AS OF 2
PM CST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PRESENT IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST
RANGED FROM 44 TO AINSWORTH TO 49 AT NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY DEAL WITH LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...THEN CHANCES FOR SNOW AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PINE RIDGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE USHERING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT IT WILL BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY...FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
MOISTURE BEING FAIRLY SHALLOW...GENERALLY BELOW 700MB...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF AN OMEGA SIGNAL IN THAT LAYER TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...THE SATURATED
LAYER DOES EXTEND ABOVE THE LEVEL OF -10 DEGREE TEMPERATURES SO ICE
WILL BE INTRODUCED SO ANTICIPATE SNOW TO BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOESN/T PERSIST LONG SO ONLY
ANTICIPATING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW POTENTIAL BEFORE THE AREA JUST
BECOMES INUNDATED WITH STRATUS. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT OVERNIGHT IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERING AROUND 03Z.
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND FROM LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE AS STRATUS EXTENDS FROM
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA UP INTO MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY TO KEEP WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF...WHICH
WILL ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
-10C...THINKING THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO
THE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED TO THE
POINT OF KEEPING GUSTS OF 25-30KTS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 40-50KTS.

THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO DECREASE. WILL STILL BE
ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE UP TO 35KTS. THINKING HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB ARE 2-5
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SO 30S AND LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED. THE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WITH THIS ENERGY WILL BE IN
PLACE WHILE MOISTURE ALSO IS PUSHED INTO THE AREA. ALSO...OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PINE RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED LIFT TO THAT AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY TO ALLOW THIS ENHANCED LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SO
HAVE ADDED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THESE AREAS PRIMARILY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MID RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE PERIODS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A
WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
APPG THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY...INDICATE SOME LIFT AROUND H7...WHICH IS COLLOCATED WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS MOIST
LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THIS LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK PER THE 290K SURFACE...HOWEVER
COND PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE UNDER 5MB AT THIS SURFACE...SO MEAGER
LIFT MAY LEAD TO PCPN. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW LIES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE PINE RIDGE. WITH THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING IN THE NWRN CWA. FCST
QPF`S WILL BE VERY LIGHT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS FORECAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S. ON TUESDAY...A
SECOND...STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO GOOD MIXING
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON H85
TEMPS TUESDAY AND GOOD MIXING...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40S WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. THE CLIPPER WILL TRACK FROM SRN ND
INTO NORTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. BY WEDS MORNING THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
FORECAST FOR WEDS MORNING. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A H7
WARM FRONT TRACKS FROM SERN WYOMING INTO SWRN SD. INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LEAVE THEM IN WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INVOF THE FRONT...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG RANGE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...LEADING TO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR LAST NIGHT HAD HIGHS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT 21...19
AND 25 RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING
HAD HIGHS OF 47...64 AND 38 FOR THE SAME DAYS! EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THOSE THREE
DAYS. WITH THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS
UTILIZED WHICH HAD HIGHS FOR NORTH PLATTE GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IS REDUCED...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY TO
STRONG INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SO KEPT GUSTS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO SOME MVFR
CEILINGS. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SO DID
PUT 5SM VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN THE KVTN FORECAST. THIS SHOULD
ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS BUT STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY STAY IN
PLACE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES...WHILE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KOAX 232051
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH 145KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM OR/WA
INTO NV BEHIND THE TROUGH.  850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN
SOUTHERN MB/NORTHERN ND/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL
KS/WESTERN OK...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AB...COOL-DOWN IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER
THIS MONTH.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL
OK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW IN WESTERN ONT
THROUGH EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA/NORTHWESTERN MO...AND WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIDN THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  TONIGHT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRATOCU DECK SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THESE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX PROVIDING JUST A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
LIFT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MAKE SOME
RECOVERY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.

THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT...MODELS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR COMPACT UPPER LOW DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CARRY A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEB.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING...AND IF
SO...WHERE/WHEN...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN CWA.  THANKSGIVING DAY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE
IN THE REGION...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...THOUGH BLACK FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER ON FRIDAY.  WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND
IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SFC CDFNT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES. MID LEVEL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACRS KOFK AND THIS
MAY CONT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FORCING WEAKENS AND THE
-RA SHOULD END. SOME MVFR CIGS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT MAY AFFECT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT GENERALLY
DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTN. A SECONDARY CDFNT IS OVER NRN/WRN SD ATTM AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINING MORE SC...LIKELY IN THE MVFR RANGE
FOR OVERNIGHT RISING TO VFR...BUT REMAINING BKN...THROUGH MON
MRNG. PRETTY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 232051
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH 145KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM OR/WA
INTO NV BEHIND THE TROUGH.  850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN
SOUTHERN MB/NORTHERN ND/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL
KS/WESTERN OK...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AB...COOL-DOWN IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER
THIS MONTH.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL
OK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW IN WESTERN ONT
THROUGH EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA/NORTHWESTERN MO...AND WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIDN THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  TONIGHT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRATOCU DECK SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THESE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX PROVIDING JUST A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
LIFT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MAKE SOME
RECOVERY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.

THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT...MODELS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR COMPACT UPPER LOW DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CARRY A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEB.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING...AND IF
SO...WHERE/WHEN...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN CWA.  THANKSGIVING DAY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE
IN THE REGION...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...THOUGH BLACK FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER ON FRIDAY.  WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND
IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SFC CDFNT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES. MID LEVEL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACRS KOFK AND THIS
MAY CONT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FORCING WEAKENS AND THE
-RA SHOULD END. SOME MVFR CIGS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT MAY AFFECT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT GENERALLY
DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTN. A SECONDARY CDFNT IS OVER NRN/WRN SD ATTM AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINING MORE SC...LIKELY IN THE MVFR RANGE
FOR OVERNIGHT RISING TO VFR...BUT REMAINING BKN...THROUGH MON
MRNG. PRETTY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 232051
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH 145KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM OR/WA
INTO NV BEHIND THE TROUGH.  850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN
SOUTHERN MB/NORTHERN ND/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL
KS/WESTERN OK...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AB...COOL-DOWN IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER
THIS MONTH.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL
OK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW IN WESTERN ONT
THROUGH EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA/NORTHWESTERN MO...AND WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIDN THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  TONIGHT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRATOCU DECK SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THESE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX PROVIDING JUST A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
LIFT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MAKE SOME
RECOVERY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.

THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT...MODELS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR COMPACT UPPER LOW DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CARRY A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEB.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING...AND IF
SO...WHERE/WHEN...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN CWA.  THANKSGIVING DAY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE
IN THE REGION...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...THOUGH BLACK FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER ON FRIDAY.  WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND
IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SFC CDFNT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES. MID LEVEL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACRS KOFK AND THIS
MAY CONT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FORCING WEAKENS AND THE
-RA SHOULD END. SOME MVFR CIGS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT MAY AFFECT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT GENERALLY
DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTN. A SECONDARY CDFNT IS OVER NRN/WRN SD ATTM AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINING MORE SC...LIKELY IN THE MVFR RANGE
FOR OVERNIGHT RISING TO VFR...BUT REMAINING BKN...THROUGH MON
MRNG. PRETTY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 232051
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.
SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS...WITH 145KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM OR/WA
INTO NV BEHIND THE TROUGH.  850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW IN
SOUTHERN MB/NORTHERN ND/NORTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NEB/CENTRAL
KS/WESTERN OK...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WAS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL AB...COOL-DOWN IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER
THIS MONTH.  SURFACE LOW AT 20Z WAS CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL
OK...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW IN WESTERN ONT
THROUGH EASTERN MN/CENTRAL IA/NORTHWESTERN MO...AND WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIDN THE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  TONIGHT...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH STRATOCU DECK SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THESE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX PROVIDING JUST A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
LIFT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO MAKE SOME
RECOVERY ON TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.

THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS REGARDING
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT...MODELS DO SUGGEST A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OR COMPACT UPPER LOW DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /IF ANY/ AS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
MORE MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN PROGGED TO SPILL INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST IN WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN CARRY A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEB.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS MATERIALIZING...AND IF
SO...WHERE/WHEN...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN CWA.  THANKSGIVING DAY IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE
IN THE REGION...BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...THOUGH BLACK FRIDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE...WITH WARMING ABOVE FREEZING LATER ON FRIDAY.  WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD AIR INTRUSION SOMETIME AROUND THE WEEKEND
IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SFC CDFNT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES. MID LEVEL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACRS KOFK AND THIS
MAY CONT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FORCING WEAKENS AND THE
-RA SHOULD END. SOME MVFR CIGS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT MAY AFFECT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT GENERALLY
DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTN. A SECONDARY CDFNT IS OVER NRN/WRN SD ATTM AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINING MORE SC...LIKELY IN THE MVFR RANGE
FOR OVERNIGHT RISING TO VFR...BUT REMAINING BKN...THROUGH MON
MRNG. PRETTY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KGID 232021
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE HAVE HEARD OF SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO NEARLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONCE THE BAND OF RAIN
DEPARTS...WE ARE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REALLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY DECREASE TO SOME DEGREE EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME FLURRY MENTION
AS THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES IN.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN...CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE EVENT EITHER AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS FOR THIS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH/COOLER AIR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/KS.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHTEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...NO HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER OF ANY KIND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

A SOMEWHAT WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A DOWN-
SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE RELATIVELY WARMER DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL BE REALIZED.
THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE
A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOST PART. A BRIEF WARM UP IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE
40S...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENTS A COOLING TREND TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE
ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH WILL
REMAIN STRONG THRU TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES MID DAY ON MONDAY. WE COULD
SEE CLOUDS SCATTER FOR A TIME BUT HAVE HELD ONTO VFR CIGS. CIGS
COULD APPROACH MVFR LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KGID 232021
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE HAVE HEARD OF SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO NEARLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONCE THE BAND OF RAIN
DEPARTS...WE ARE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REALLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY DECREASE TO SOME DEGREE EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME FLURRY MENTION
AS THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES IN.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN...CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE EVENT EITHER AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS FOR THIS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH/COOLER AIR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/KS.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHTEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...NO HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER OF ANY KIND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

A SOMEWHAT WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A DOWN-
SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE RELATIVELY WARMER DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL BE REALIZED.
THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE
A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOST PART. A BRIEF WARM UP IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE
40S...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENTS A COOLING TREND TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE
ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH WILL
REMAIN STRONG THRU TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES MID DAY ON MONDAY. WE COULD
SEE CLOUDS SCATTER FOR A TIME BUT HAVE HELD ONTO VFR CIGS. CIGS
COULD APPROACH MVFR LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 231821
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AS MAX
TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY BEEN REACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY WELL MIXED WHICH
CAN BE ASSUMED BY THE OBSERVED WINDS AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS SEEING
GUSTS OF 30-40KTS. WITH CLOUDS MOVING EAST AND CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES DESPITE THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO DROP PRE FIRST PERIOD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
R- AS COLD AIR STILL TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS NOT THAT DIFFERENT. WILL USE A BLEND. SOME
RADAR RETURNS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE
DECREASE. COLD FRONT JUST INTO NORTHWEST PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME TO SCHC CATEGORIES WITH NO ONE
HAVING REPORTED PRECIP RECENTLY. WITH ON GOING PRECIPITATION AND
FROPA WILL CARRY A PRE FIRST PERIOD THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WHILE 850MB
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON A FREE FALL WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
DIURNAL TREND TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE CHANGES THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. BUFR
SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS BUFKIT HAVE A DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER LOWEST CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING AROUND 5K FT OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY DAY TODAY. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 24/06Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
NORTH. LOWS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL...HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE GREATLY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

EARLY IN THE WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED /PER SOUNDINGS/ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND. THE BEST SHOT WILL BE DOWNWIND
OF THE BLACK HILLS /NW NEB/ AND NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER AS
THE WAVE SLIDES EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED AS TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT PRECIP.

BY MID WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE EC CONTINUES TO DIG
THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR. THE
THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARM. THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST ALOFT...BUT ALL EYES WILL BE HOW FAR WEST
THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT. THE EC DROPS 850 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO...WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 10 ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE THAN BEFORE AS HIGHS IN THE GFS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY...THANKGIVING...WHILE THE EC MOS HAS HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 20S AND SOME LOCAL AREAS ARE HOLDING IN THE TEENS...A
LARGER SPREAD FOR FRIDAY.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IS REDUCED...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY TO
STRONG INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SO KEPT GUSTS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO SOME MVFR
CEILINGS. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SO DID
PUT 5SM VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN THE KVTN FORECAST. THIS SHOULD
ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS BUT STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY STAY IN
PLACE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES...WHILE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 231821
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AS MAX
TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY BEEN REACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY WELL MIXED WHICH
CAN BE ASSUMED BY THE OBSERVED WINDS AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS SEEING
GUSTS OF 30-40KTS. WITH CLOUDS MOVING EAST AND CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES DESPITE THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO DROP PRE FIRST PERIOD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
R- AS COLD AIR STILL TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS NOT THAT DIFFERENT. WILL USE A BLEND. SOME
RADAR RETURNS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE
DECREASE. COLD FRONT JUST INTO NORTHWEST PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME TO SCHC CATEGORIES WITH NO ONE
HAVING REPORTED PRECIP RECENTLY. WITH ON GOING PRECIPITATION AND
FROPA WILL CARRY A PRE FIRST PERIOD THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WHILE 850MB
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON A FREE FALL WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
DIURNAL TREND TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE CHANGES THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. BUFR
SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS BUFKIT HAVE A DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER LOWEST CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING AROUND 5K FT OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY DAY TODAY. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 24/06Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
NORTH. LOWS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL...HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE GREATLY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

EARLY IN THE WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED /PER SOUNDINGS/ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND. THE BEST SHOT WILL BE DOWNWIND
OF THE BLACK HILLS /NW NEB/ AND NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER AS
THE WAVE SLIDES EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED AS TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT PRECIP.

BY MID WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE EC CONTINUES TO DIG
THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR. THE
THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARM. THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST ALOFT...BUT ALL EYES WILL BE HOW FAR WEST
THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT. THE EC DROPS 850 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO...WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 10 ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE THAN BEFORE AS HIGHS IN THE GFS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY...THANKGIVING...WHILE THE EC MOS HAS HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 20S AND SOME LOCAL AREAS ARE HOLDING IN THE TEENS...A
LARGER SPREAD FOR FRIDAY.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IS REDUCED...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY TO
STRONG INTO THE DAY MONDAY. SO KEPT GUSTS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO SOME MVFR
CEILINGS. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SO DID
PUT 5SM VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN THE KVTN FORECAST. THIS SHOULD
ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS BUT STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY STAY IN
PLACE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES...WHILE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KGID 231746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1146 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NICE WEATHER WAS GREAT WHILE IT LASTED...BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR A WINDY...WET...AND COLDER DAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH
COULD BE AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE
STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION COMING
TO AND END. FURTHERMORE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY ALREADY
OCCURRED AT MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

TODAY...
THE WIND...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES (ORD
TO LEXINGTON) BY AROUND 5 TO 6 AM...PASS THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES
BY 8 OR 9 AM...AND EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (BELOIT TO HEBRON)
BY 11 AM. THE WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON AND 5
PM.

TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM WERE STILL 50F OR HIGHER
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH MOIST 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL PLUMMET AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT STRONG
MIXING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SLOW THE FALL IN AIR
TEMPERATURES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IN SOME AREAS TEMPERATURES
MIGHT ACTUALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO
MIXING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GRADUALLY
FALL OFF AND THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAIN IS LIKELY. THERE IS
GREAT FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE TRI-CITES BETWEEN 7-9AM AND THEN SLIDE
EASTWARD INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIFT IS GOOD AND WE COLD SEE MODERATE RAIN
WHILE THE BAND COMES THROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO
LONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AT AND ABOVE 850MB ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...MOST
FORECAST MODELS PUT OUR SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 38 TO 43F RANGE
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING THROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING
IN THE MID 30S AND FALLING TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 20S. OVERALL...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE SFC FOR SNOW. WHILE
RAIN IS LIKELY...WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EVEN IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN
SFC TEMPERATURES WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTOGENETIC WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE PASSED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SECOND
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH EVERYONE FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE RATHER BRISK AT AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALOFT: NONE OF THE FCST PROBLEMS FROM 24 HRS AGO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE DIFLUENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE E PAC AND AK
THIS WEEK. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS AT LEAST MODERATELY AMPLIFIED NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THU. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER IS UP FOR
GRABS. DOES THE FLOW OVER N AMERICA REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER WITH A BROAD TROF E OF THE ROCKIES? OR DOES A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP OCCUR WITH A BROAD QUASI-ZONAL RIDGE? THE UKMET/GEM ARE
SOLIDLY IN THE COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED CAMP. THE PAST SEVERAL GFS/EC
RUNS CAN`T DECIDE WHICH.

REVIEWED THE 512Z EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. WPC PREFERENCE WAS FOR
THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WE HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL EC RUN WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE 00Z EC CAME IN
BACK IN THE COLDER CAMP.

THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA
BY DAYBREAK MON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU MON NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TUE NIGHT. QUIET NW FLOW WED GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO WNW FLOW THU-SAT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

SURFACE: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA MON MORNING
WITH WRN USA HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU TUE AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT DIVES INTO ND.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU LATE TUE NIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND WED. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS THXGVG DAY AND THEN BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE FRI. THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION SAT. THEN EVEN THE 12Z/00Z EC DISAGREE ON
WHAT HAPPENS SUN. DOES ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE THRU OR
DOES A WARM FRONT MOVE THRU?

06Z-12Z/WED THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER...S OF THE BEST MODEL
CLUSTERING WHICH TAKES THE CLIPPER THRU THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY 12Z.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM MON-WED THEN LOW THU-SAT.

TEMPS: INTERNAL VERIFICATION INDICATES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL
WITH OUR HIGHS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 2 WEEKS. SO USED BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS FOR MON-TUE WHICH RAISED HIGH TEMPS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: ANY LEFTOVER EARLY MORNING FLURRIES DEPART FROM THE TRI-CITIES
N AND E. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS WELL...BUT THEN INCREASING
MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF. WINDY IN CAA WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH N OF HWY 6.

MON NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN CLOUDS.

TUE: PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN TO START...BUT INCREASING WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS. IF THE EC/GFS CROSS SECTIONS ARE CORRECT...THE FCST
MIGHT NOT BE CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...UNTIL
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WE COULD SEE A NARROW ARC OF R/S SHWRS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ALL MODELS HAVE IT. FOR NOW FOLLOWED
THE HINTS FROM THE 12Z/00Z EC AND INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE OF R/S.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON FCST TEMP PROFILES. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE I`D
SAY THIS ENDS UP SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF RAIN SHWR.

WED: PROBABLY M/CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE JET AXIS OVERHEAD. ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THIS BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WAS LOOKING A MUCH NASTIER A FEW DAYS AGO.

WED NIGHT INTO THU AM: MULTIPLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SNOW N OF I-80. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST YET.

THXGVG DAY-SAT: P-M/CLOUDY AND COLDER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR SKIFFS OF LIGHT SNOW.

4-5 DAYS AGO WE WERE SEEING A STRONG COLD SIGNAL IN THE EC 2M TEMPS
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S. IT
THEN BACKED OFF...JUST LEAVING ONE DAY OF BITTER COLD ON THXGVG DAY.
NOW THE LAST 2 RUNS ARE BACK TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF COLD THU-SAT WITH
ONLY SLOW RECOVERY THEREAFTER.

WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND A
BREAK FROM MID-WINTER COLD IN THE BEGINNING OF DEC. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN GET ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH WILL
REMAIN STRONG THRU TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES MID DAY ON MONDAY. WE COULD
SEE CLOUDS SCATTER FOR A TIME BUT HAVE HELD ONTO VFR CIGS. CIGS
COULD APPROACH MVFR LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 231746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1146 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NICE WEATHER WAS GREAT WHILE IT LASTED...BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR A WINDY...WET...AND COLDER DAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH
COULD BE AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE
STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION COMING
TO AND END. FURTHERMORE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY ALREADY
OCCURRED AT MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

TODAY...
THE WIND...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES (ORD
TO LEXINGTON) BY AROUND 5 TO 6 AM...PASS THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES
BY 8 OR 9 AM...AND EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (BELOIT TO HEBRON)
BY 11 AM. THE WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON AND 5
PM.

TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM WERE STILL 50F OR HIGHER
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH MOIST 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL PLUMMET AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT STRONG
MIXING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SLOW THE FALL IN AIR
TEMPERATURES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IN SOME AREAS TEMPERATURES
MIGHT ACTUALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO
MIXING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GRADUALLY
FALL OFF AND THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAIN IS LIKELY. THERE IS
GREAT FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE TRI-CITES BETWEEN 7-9AM AND THEN SLIDE
EASTWARD INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIFT IS GOOD AND WE COLD SEE MODERATE RAIN
WHILE THE BAND COMES THROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO
LONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AT AND ABOVE 850MB ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...MOST
FORECAST MODELS PUT OUR SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 38 TO 43F RANGE
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING THROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING
IN THE MID 30S AND FALLING TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 20S. OVERALL...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE SFC FOR SNOW. WHILE
RAIN IS LIKELY...WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EVEN IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN
SFC TEMPERATURES WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTOGENETIC WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE PASSED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SECOND
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH EVERYONE FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE RATHER BRISK AT AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALOFT: NONE OF THE FCST PROBLEMS FROM 24 HRS AGO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE DIFLUENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE E PAC AND AK
THIS WEEK. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS AT LEAST MODERATELY AMPLIFIED NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THU. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER IS UP FOR
GRABS. DOES THE FLOW OVER N AMERICA REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER WITH A BROAD TROF E OF THE ROCKIES? OR DOES A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP OCCUR WITH A BROAD QUASI-ZONAL RIDGE? THE UKMET/GEM ARE
SOLIDLY IN THE COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED CAMP. THE PAST SEVERAL GFS/EC
RUNS CAN`T DECIDE WHICH.

REVIEWED THE 512Z EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. WPC PREFERENCE WAS FOR
THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WE HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL EC RUN WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE 00Z EC CAME IN
BACK IN THE COLDER CAMP.

THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA
BY DAYBREAK MON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU MON NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TUE NIGHT. QUIET NW FLOW WED GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO WNW FLOW THU-SAT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

SURFACE: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA MON MORNING
WITH WRN USA HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU TUE AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT DIVES INTO ND.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU LATE TUE NIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND WED. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS THXGVG DAY AND THEN BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE FRI. THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION SAT. THEN EVEN THE 12Z/00Z EC DISAGREE ON
WHAT HAPPENS SUN. DOES ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE THRU OR
DOES A WARM FRONT MOVE THRU?

06Z-12Z/WED THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER...S OF THE BEST MODEL
CLUSTERING WHICH TAKES THE CLIPPER THRU THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY 12Z.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM MON-WED THEN LOW THU-SAT.

TEMPS: INTERNAL VERIFICATION INDICATES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL
WITH OUR HIGHS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 2 WEEKS. SO USED BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS FOR MON-TUE WHICH RAISED HIGH TEMPS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: ANY LEFTOVER EARLY MORNING FLURRIES DEPART FROM THE TRI-CITIES
N AND E. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS WELL...BUT THEN INCREASING
MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF. WINDY IN CAA WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH N OF HWY 6.

MON NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN CLOUDS.

TUE: PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN TO START...BUT INCREASING WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS. IF THE EC/GFS CROSS SECTIONS ARE CORRECT...THE FCST
MIGHT NOT BE CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...UNTIL
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WE COULD SEE A NARROW ARC OF R/S SHWRS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ALL MODELS HAVE IT. FOR NOW FOLLOWED
THE HINTS FROM THE 12Z/00Z EC AND INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE OF R/S.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON FCST TEMP PROFILES. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE I`D
SAY THIS ENDS UP SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF RAIN SHWR.

WED: PROBABLY M/CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE JET AXIS OVERHEAD. ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THIS BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WAS LOOKING A MUCH NASTIER A FEW DAYS AGO.

WED NIGHT INTO THU AM: MULTIPLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SNOW N OF I-80. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST YET.

THXGVG DAY-SAT: P-M/CLOUDY AND COLDER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR SKIFFS OF LIGHT SNOW.

4-5 DAYS AGO WE WERE SEEING A STRONG COLD SIGNAL IN THE EC 2M TEMPS
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S. IT
THEN BACKED OFF...JUST LEAVING ONE DAY OF BITTER COLD ON THXGVG DAY.
NOW THE LAST 2 RUNS ARE BACK TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF COLD THU-SAT WITH
ONLY SLOW RECOVERY THEREAFTER.

WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND A
BREAK FROM MID-WINTER COLD IN THE BEGINNING OF DEC. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN GET ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH WILL
REMAIN STRONG THRU TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES MID DAY ON MONDAY. WE COULD
SEE CLOUDS SCATTER FOR A TIME BUT HAVE HELD ONTO VFR CIGS. CIGS
COULD APPROACH MVFR LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 231746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1146 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NICE WEATHER WAS GREAT WHILE IT LASTED...BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR A WINDY...WET...AND COLDER DAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH
COULD BE AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE
STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION COMING
TO AND END. FURTHERMORE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY ALREADY
OCCURRED AT MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

TODAY...
THE WIND...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES (ORD
TO LEXINGTON) BY AROUND 5 TO 6 AM...PASS THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES
BY 8 OR 9 AM...AND EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (BELOIT TO HEBRON)
BY 11 AM. THE WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON AND 5
PM.

TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM WERE STILL 50F OR HIGHER
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH MOIST 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL PLUMMET AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT STRONG
MIXING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SLOW THE FALL IN AIR
TEMPERATURES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IN SOME AREAS TEMPERATURES
MIGHT ACTUALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO
MIXING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GRADUALLY
FALL OFF AND THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAIN IS LIKELY. THERE IS
GREAT FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE TRI-CITES BETWEEN 7-9AM AND THEN SLIDE
EASTWARD INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIFT IS GOOD AND WE COLD SEE MODERATE RAIN
WHILE THE BAND COMES THROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO
LONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AT AND ABOVE 850MB ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...MOST
FORECAST MODELS PUT OUR SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 38 TO 43F RANGE
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING THROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING
IN THE MID 30S AND FALLING TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 20S. OVERALL...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE SFC FOR SNOW. WHILE
RAIN IS LIKELY...WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EVEN IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN
SFC TEMPERATURES WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTOGENETIC WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE PASSED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SECOND
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH EVERYONE FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE RATHER BRISK AT AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALOFT: NONE OF THE FCST PROBLEMS FROM 24 HRS AGO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE DIFLUENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE E PAC AND AK
THIS WEEK. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS AT LEAST MODERATELY AMPLIFIED NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THU. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER IS UP FOR
GRABS. DOES THE FLOW OVER N AMERICA REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER WITH A BROAD TROF E OF THE ROCKIES? OR DOES A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP OCCUR WITH A BROAD QUASI-ZONAL RIDGE? THE UKMET/GEM ARE
SOLIDLY IN THE COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED CAMP. THE PAST SEVERAL GFS/EC
RUNS CAN`T DECIDE WHICH.

REVIEWED THE 512Z EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. WPC PREFERENCE WAS FOR
THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WE HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL EC RUN WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE 00Z EC CAME IN
BACK IN THE COLDER CAMP.

THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA
BY DAYBREAK MON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU MON NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TUE NIGHT. QUIET NW FLOW WED GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO WNW FLOW THU-SAT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

SURFACE: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA MON MORNING
WITH WRN USA HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU TUE AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT DIVES INTO ND.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU LATE TUE NIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND WED. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS THXGVG DAY AND THEN BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE FRI. THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION SAT. THEN EVEN THE 12Z/00Z EC DISAGREE ON
WHAT HAPPENS SUN. DOES ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE THRU OR
DOES A WARM FRONT MOVE THRU?

06Z-12Z/WED THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER...S OF THE BEST MODEL
CLUSTERING WHICH TAKES THE CLIPPER THRU THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY 12Z.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM MON-WED THEN LOW THU-SAT.

TEMPS: INTERNAL VERIFICATION INDICATES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL
WITH OUR HIGHS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 2 WEEKS. SO USED BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS FOR MON-TUE WHICH RAISED HIGH TEMPS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: ANY LEFTOVER EARLY MORNING FLURRIES DEPART FROM THE TRI-CITIES
N AND E. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS WELL...BUT THEN INCREASING
MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF. WINDY IN CAA WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH N OF HWY 6.

MON NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN CLOUDS.

TUE: PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN TO START...BUT INCREASING WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS. IF THE EC/GFS CROSS SECTIONS ARE CORRECT...THE FCST
MIGHT NOT BE CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...UNTIL
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WE COULD SEE A NARROW ARC OF R/S SHWRS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ALL MODELS HAVE IT. FOR NOW FOLLOWED
THE HINTS FROM THE 12Z/00Z EC AND INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE OF R/S.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON FCST TEMP PROFILES. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE I`D
SAY THIS ENDS UP SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF RAIN SHWR.

WED: PROBABLY M/CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE JET AXIS OVERHEAD. ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THIS BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WAS LOOKING A MUCH NASTIER A FEW DAYS AGO.

WED NIGHT INTO THU AM: MULTIPLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SNOW N OF I-80. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST YET.

THXGVG DAY-SAT: P-M/CLOUDY AND COLDER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR SKIFFS OF LIGHT SNOW.

4-5 DAYS AGO WE WERE SEEING A STRONG COLD SIGNAL IN THE EC 2M TEMPS
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S. IT
THEN BACKED OFF...JUST LEAVING ONE DAY OF BITTER COLD ON THXGVG DAY.
NOW THE LAST 2 RUNS ARE BACK TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF COLD THU-SAT WITH
ONLY SLOW RECOVERY THEREAFTER.

WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND A
BREAK FROM MID-WINTER COLD IN THE BEGINNING OF DEC. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN GET ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH WILL
REMAIN STRONG THRU TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES MID DAY ON MONDAY. WE COULD
SEE CLOUDS SCATTER FOR A TIME BUT HAVE HELD ONTO VFR CIGS. CIGS
COULD APPROACH MVFR LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KGID 231746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1146 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NICE WEATHER WAS GREAT WHILE IT LASTED...BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR A WINDY...WET...AND COLDER DAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH
COULD BE AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE
STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION COMING
TO AND END. FURTHERMORE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY ALREADY
OCCURRED AT MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

TODAY...
THE WIND...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES (ORD
TO LEXINGTON) BY AROUND 5 TO 6 AM...PASS THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES
BY 8 OR 9 AM...AND EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (BELOIT TO HEBRON)
BY 11 AM. THE WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON AND 5
PM.

TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM WERE STILL 50F OR HIGHER
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH MOIST 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL PLUMMET AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT STRONG
MIXING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SLOW THE FALL IN AIR
TEMPERATURES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IN SOME AREAS TEMPERATURES
MIGHT ACTUALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO
MIXING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GRADUALLY
FALL OFF AND THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAIN IS LIKELY. THERE IS
GREAT FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE TRI-CITES BETWEEN 7-9AM AND THEN SLIDE
EASTWARD INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIFT IS GOOD AND WE COLD SEE MODERATE RAIN
WHILE THE BAND COMES THROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO
LONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AT AND ABOVE 850MB ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...MOST
FORECAST MODELS PUT OUR SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 38 TO 43F RANGE
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING THROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING
IN THE MID 30S AND FALLING TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 20S. OVERALL...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE SFC FOR SNOW. WHILE
RAIN IS LIKELY...WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EVEN IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN
SFC TEMPERATURES WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTOGENETIC WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE PASSED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SECOND
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH EVERYONE FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE RATHER BRISK AT AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALOFT: NONE OF THE FCST PROBLEMS FROM 24 HRS AGO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE DIFLUENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE E PAC AND AK
THIS WEEK. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS AT LEAST MODERATELY AMPLIFIED NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THU. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER IS UP FOR
GRABS. DOES THE FLOW OVER N AMERICA REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER WITH A BROAD TROF E OF THE ROCKIES? OR DOES A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP OCCUR WITH A BROAD QUASI-ZONAL RIDGE? THE UKMET/GEM ARE
SOLIDLY IN THE COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED CAMP. THE PAST SEVERAL GFS/EC
RUNS CAN`T DECIDE WHICH.

REVIEWED THE 512Z EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. WPC PREFERENCE WAS FOR
THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WE HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL EC RUN WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE 00Z EC CAME IN
BACK IN THE COLDER CAMP.

THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA
BY DAYBREAK MON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU MON NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TUE NIGHT. QUIET NW FLOW WED GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO WNW FLOW THU-SAT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

SURFACE: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA MON MORNING
WITH WRN USA HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU TUE AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT DIVES INTO ND.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU LATE TUE NIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND WED. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS THXGVG DAY AND THEN BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE FRI. THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION SAT. THEN EVEN THE 12Z/00Z EC DISAGREE ON
WHAT HAPPENS SUN. DOES ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE THRU OR
DOES A WARM FRONT MOVE THRU?

06Z-12Z/WED THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER...S OF THE BEST MODEL
CLUSTERING WHICH TAKES THE CLIPPER THRU THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY 12Z.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM MON-WED THEN LOW THU-SAT.

TEMPS: INTERNAL VERIFICATION INDICATES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL
WITH OUR HIGHS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 2 WEEKS. SO USED BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS FOR MON-TUE WHICH RAISED HIGH TEMPS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: ANY LEFTOVER EARLY MORNING FLURRIES DEPART FROM THE TRI-CITIES
N AND E. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS WELL...BUT THEN INCREASING
MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF. WINDY IN CAA WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH N OF HWY 6.

MON NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN CLOUDS.

TUE: PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN TO START...BUT INCREASING WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS. IF THE EC/GFS CROSS SECTIONS ARE CORRECT...THE FCST
MIGHT NOT BE CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...UNTIL
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WE COULD SEE A NARROW ARC OF R/S SHWRS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ALL MODELS HAVE IT. FOR NOW FOLLOWED
THE HINTS FROM THE 12Z/00Z EC AND INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE OF R/S.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON FCST TEMP PROFILES. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE I`D
SAY THIS ENDS UP SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF RAIN SHWR.

WED: PROBABLY M/CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE JET AXIS OVERHEAD. ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THIS BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WAS LOOKING A MUCH NASTIER A FEW DAYS AGO.

WED NIGHT INTO THU AM: MULTIPLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SNOW N OF I-80. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST YET.

THXGVG DAY-SAT: P-M/CLOUDY AND COLDER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR SKIFFS OF LIGHT SNOW.

4-5 DAYS AGO WE WERE SEEING A STRONG COLD SIGNAL IN THE EC 2M TEMPS
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S. IT
THEN BACKED OFF...JUST LEAVING ONE DAY OF BITTER COLD ON THXGVG DAY.
NOW THE LAST 2 RUNS ARE BACK TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF COLD THU-SAT WITH
ONLY SLOW RECOVERY THEREAFTER.

WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND A
BREAK FROM MID-WINTER COLD IN THE BEGINNING OF DEC. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN GET ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND
PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH WILL
REMAIN STRONG THRU TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES MID DAY ON MONDAY. WE COULD
SEE CLOUDS SCATTER FOR A TIME BUT HAVE HELD ONTO VFR CIGS. CIGS
COULD APPROACH MVFR LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 231738
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD AND RAIN TO SNOW CHANCES BEHIND...THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST.

BROAD TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE WERE AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND A 160KT 300MB JET KNIFING ONTO THE OREGON
COAST AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS JET ROUNDS
BASE OF DEVELOPING TROUGH...FEATURES WILL CONGEAL INTO A SHARPER BUT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO OUR EAST BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PLUNGING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER MAIN AFFECT WILL BE IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/DRIZZLE RETURNED TO MOST OF OUR CWA EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT...PROPELLED EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE...
OMAHA/LINCOLN JUST BEFORE NOON...THEN OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WITH BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL SEE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEHIND
FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY 12Z
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ON BACK SIDE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS
TIME...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 40 IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S ALL AREAS BY SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 30S
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHEAST AS FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO BRING FLURRIES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE POTENT...INDUCING DECENT WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS THEN
COULD APPROACH 40 BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTER SMALL SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...FOR NOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES.

AFOREMENTIONED THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA...BUT STILL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON LIGHT SIDE. BEYOND
THEN...MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...BUT
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
BOTH IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GFS
AND ECMWF THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THEN MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT OFFER WIDE VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH GFS THE WARMER OF THE TWO THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION NOW IS TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH OUR GOING FORECAST OF HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SFC CDFNT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES. MID LEVEL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACRS KOFK AND THIS
MAY CONT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FORCING WEAKENS AND THE
-RA SHOULD END. SOME MVFR CIGS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY
AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT
GENERALLY DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN AND VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTN. A SECONDARY CDFNT IS OVER NRN/WRN SD ATTM AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINING MORE SC...LIKELY IN THE
MVFR RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT RISING TO VFR...BUT REMAINING
BKN...THROUGH MON MRNG. PRETTY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONT THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 231208
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD AND RAIN TO SNOW CHANCES BEHIND...THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST.

BROAD TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE WERE AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND A 160KT 300MB JET KNIFING ONTO THE OREGON
COAST AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS JET ROUNDS
BASE OF DEVELOPING TROUGH...FEATURES WILL CONGEAL INTO A SHARPER BUT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO OUR EAST BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PLUNGING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER MAIN AFFECT WILL BE IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/DRIZZLE RETURNED TO MOST OF OUR CWA EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT...PROPELLED EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE...
OMAHA/LINCOLN JUST BEFORE NOON...THEN OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WITH BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL SEE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEHIND
FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY 12Z
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ON BACK SIDE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS
TIME...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 40 IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S ALL AREAS BY SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 30S
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHEAST AS FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO BRING FLURRIES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE POTENT...INDUCING DECENT WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS THEN
COULD APPROACH 40 BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTER SMALL SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...FOR NOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES.

AFOREMENTIONED THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA...BUT STILL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON LIGHT SIDE. BEYOND
THEN...MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...BUT
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
BOTH IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GFS
AND ECMWF THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THEN MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT OFFER WIDE VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH GFS THE WARMER OF THE TWO THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION NOW IS TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH OUR GOING FORECAST OF HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE 20G30KT BY 18Z AT ALL THREE SITES. BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH 23Z. GUSTY NORTHWESY WINDS CONTINUE BEYOND
00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT



000
FXUS63 KOAX 231208
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD AND RAIN TO SNOW CHANCES BEHIND...THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST.

BROAD TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE WERE AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND A 160KT 300MB JET KNIFING ONTO THE OREGON
COAST AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS JET ROUNDS
BASE OF DEVELOPING TROUGH...FEATURES WILL CONGEAL INTO A SHARPER BUT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO OUR EAST BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PLUNGING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER MAIN AFFECT WILL BE IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/DRIZZLE RETURNED TO MOST OF OUR CWA EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT...PROPELLED EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE...
OMAHA/LINCOLN JUST BEFORE NOON...THEN OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WITH BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL SEE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEHIND
FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY 12Z
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ON BACK SIDE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS
TIME...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 40 IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S ALL AREAS BY SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 30S
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHEAST AS FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO BRING FLURRIES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE POTENT...INDUCING DECENT WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS THEN
COULD APPROACH 40 BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTER SMALL SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...FOR NOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES.

AFOREMENTIONED THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA...BUT STILL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON LIGHT SIDE. BEYOND
THEN...MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...BUT
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
BOTH IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GFS
AND ECMWF THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THEN MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT OFFER WIDE VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH GFS THE WARMER OF THE TWO THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION NOW IS TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH OUR GOING FORECAST OF HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE 20G30KT BY 18Z AT ALL THREE SITES. BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH 23Z. GUSTY NORTHWESY WINDS CONTINUE BEYOND
00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KLBF 231203 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
603 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO DROP PRE FIRST PERIOD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
R- AS COLD AIR STILL TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS NOT THAT DIFFERENT. WILL USE A BLEND. SOME
RADAR RETURNS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE
DECREASE. COLD FRONT JUST INTO NORTHWEST PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME TO SCHC CATEGORIES WITH NO ONE
HAVING REPORTED PRECIP RECENTLY. WITH ON GOING PRECIPITATION AND
FROPA WILL CARRY A PRE FIRST PERIOD THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WHILE 850MB
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON A FREE FALL WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
DIURNAL TREND TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE CHANGES THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. BUFR
SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS BUFKIT HAVE A DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER LOWEST CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING AROUND 5K FT OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY DAY TODAY. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 24/06Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
NORTH. LOWS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL...HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE GREATLY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

EARLY IN THE WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED /PER SOUNDINGS/ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND. THE BEST SHOT WILL BE DOWNWIND
OF THE BLACK HILLS /NW NEB/ AND NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER AS
THE WAVE SLIDES EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED AS TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT PRECIP.

BY MID WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE EC CONTINUES TO DIG
THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR. THE
THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARM. THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST ALOFT...BUT ALL EYES WILL BE HOW FAR WEST
THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT. THE EC DROPS 850 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO...WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 10 ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE THAN BEFORE AS HIGHS IN THE GFS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY...THANKGIVING...WHILE THE EC MOS HAS HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 20S AND SOME LOCAL AREAS ARE HOLDING IN THE TEENS...A
LARGER SPREAD FOR FRIDAY.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM  CST SUN NOV 23 2014

HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT KVTN AND KLBF TODAY
AS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE EAST OF TAF SITES. VFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 26KTS
AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 231203 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
603 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO DROP PRE FIRST PERIOD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
R- AS COLD AIR STILL TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS NOT THAT DIFFERENT. WILL USE A BLEND. SOME
RADAR RETURNS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE
DECREASE. COLD FRONT JUST INTO NORTHWEST PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME TO SCHC CATEGORIES WITH NO ONE
HAVING REPORTED PRECIP RECENTLY. WITH ON GOING PRECIPITATION AND
FROPA WILL CARRY A PRE FIRST PERIOD THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WHILE 850MB
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON A FREE FALL WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
DIURNAL TREND TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE CHANGES THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. BUFR
SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS BUFKIT HAVE A DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER LOWEST CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING AROUND 5K FT OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY DAY TODAY. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 24/06Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
NORTH. LOWS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL...HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE GREATLY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

EARLY IN THE WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED /PER SOUNDINGS/ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND. THE BEST SHOT WILL BE DOWNWIND
OF THE BLACK HILLS /NW NEB/ AND NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER AS
THE WAVE SLIDES EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED AS TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT PRECIP.

BY MID WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE EC CONTINUES TO DIG
THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR. THE
THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARM. THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST ALOFT...BUT ALL EYES WILL BE HOW FAR WEST
THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT. THE EC DROPS 850 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO...WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 10 ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE THAN BEFORE AS HIGHS IN THE GFS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY...THANKGIVING...WHILE THE EC MOS HAS HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 20S AND SOME LOCAL AREAS ARE HOLDING IN THE TEENS...A
LARGER SPREAD FOR FRIDAY.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM  CST SUN NOV 23 2014

HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT KVTN AND KLBF TODAY
AS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE EAST OF TAF SITES. VFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 26KTS
AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 231203 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
603 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO DROP PRE FIRST PERIOD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
R- AS COLD AIR STILL TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS NOT THAT DIFFERENT. WILL USE A BLEND. SOME
RADAR RETURNS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE
DECREASE. COLD FRONT JUST INTO NORTHWEST PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME TO SCHC CATEGORIES WITH NO ONE
HAVING REPORTED PRECIP RECENTLY. WITH ON GOING PRECIPITATION AND
FROPA WILL CARRY A PRE FIRST PERIOD THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WHILE 850MB
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON A FREE FALL WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
DIURNAL TREND TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE CHANGES THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. BUFR
SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS BUFKIT HAVE A DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER LOWEST CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING AROUND 5K FT OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY DAY TODAY. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 24/06Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
NORTH. LOWS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL...HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE GREATLY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

EARLY IN THE WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED /PER SOUNDINGS/ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND. THE BEST SHOT WILL BE DOWNWIND
OF THE BLACK HILLS /NW NEB/ AND NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER AS
THE WAVE SLIDES EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED AS TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT PRECIP.

BY MID WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE EC CONTINUES TO DIG
THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR. THE
THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARM. THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST ALOFT...BUT ALL EYES WILL BE HOW FAR WEST
THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT. THE EC DROPS 850 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO...WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 10 ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE THAN BEFORE AS HIGHS IN THE GFS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY...THANKGIVING...WHILE THE EC MOS HAS HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 20S AND SOME LOCAL AREAS ARE HOLDING IN THE TEENS...A
LARGER SPREAD FOR FRIDAY.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM  CST SUN NOV 23 2014

HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT KVTN AND KLBF TODAY
AS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE EAST OF TAF SITES. VFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 26KTS
AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 231203 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
603 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO DROP PRE FIRST PERIOD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
R- AS COLD AIR STILL TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS NOT THAT DIFFERENT. WILL USE A BLEND. SOME
RADAR RETURNS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE
DECREASE. COLD FRONT JUST INTO NORTHWEST PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME TO SCHC CATEGORIES WITH NO ONE
HAVING REPORTED PRECIP RECENTLY. WITH ON GOING PRECIPITATION AND
FROPA WILL CARRY A PRE FIRST PERIOD THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WHILE 850MB
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON A FREE FALL WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
DIURNAL TREND TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE CHANGES THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. BUFR
SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS BUFKIT HAVE A DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER LOWEST CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING AROUND 5K FT OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY DAY TODAY. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 24/06Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
NORTH. LOWS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL...HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE GREATLY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

EARLY IN THE WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED /PER SOUNDINGS/ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND. THE BEST SHOT WILL BE DOWNWIND
OF THE BLACK HILLS /NW NEB/ AND NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER AS
THE WAVE SLIDES EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED AS TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT PRECIP.

BY MID WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE EC CONTINUES TO DIG
THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR. THE
THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARM. THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST ALOFT...BUT ALL EYES WILL BE HOW FAR WEST
THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT. THE EC DROPS 850 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO...WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 10 ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE THAN BEFORE AS HIGHS IN THE GFS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY...THANKGIVING...WHILE THE EC MOS HAS HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 20S AND SOME LOCAL AREAS ARE HOLDING IN THE TEENS...A
LARGER SPREAD FOR FRIDAY.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM  CST SUN NOV 23 2014

HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT KVTN AND KLBF TODAY
AS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE EAST OF TAF SITES. VFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 26KTS
AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KGID 231144
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
544 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NICE WEATHER WAS GREAT WHILE IT LASTED...BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR A WINDY...WET...AND COLDER DAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH
COULD BE AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE
STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION COMING
TO AND END. FURTHERMORE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY ALREADY
OCCURRED AT MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

TODAY...
THE WIND...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES (ORD
TO LEXINGTON) BY AROUND 5 TO 6 AM...PASS THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES
BY 8 OR 9 AM...AND EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (BELOIT TO HEBRON)
BY 11 AM. THE WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON AND 5
PM.

TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM WERE STILL 50F OR HIGHER
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH MOIST 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL PLUMMET AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT STRONG
MIXING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SLOW THE FALL IN AIR
TEMPERATURES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IN SOME AREAS TEMPERATURES
MIGHT ACTUALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO
MIXING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GRADUALLY
FALL OFF AND THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAIN IS LIKELY. THERE IS
GREAT FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE TRI-CITES BETWEEN 7-9AM AND THEN SLIDE
EASTWARD INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIFT IS GOOD AND WE COLD SEE MODERATE RAIN
WHILE THE BAND COMES THROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO
LONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AT AND ABOVE 850MB ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...MOST
FORECAST MODELS PUT OUR SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 38 TO 43F RANGE
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING THROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING
IN THE MID 30S AND FALLING TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 20S. OVERALL...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE SFC FOR SNOW. WHILE
RAIN IS LIKELY...WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EVEN IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN
SFC TEMPERATURES WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTOGENETIC WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE PASSED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SECOND
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH EVERYONE FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE RATHER BRISK AT AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALOFT: NONE OF THE FCST PROBLEMS FROM 24 HRS AGO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE DIFLUENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE E PAC AND AK
THIS WEEK. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS AT LEAST MODERATELY AMPLIFIED NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THU. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER IS UP FOR
GRABS. DOES THE FLOW OVER N AMERICA REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER WITH A BROAD TROF E OF THE ROCKIES? OR DOES A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP OCCUR WITH A BROAD QUASI-ZONAL RIDGE? THE UKMET/GEM ARE
SOLIDLY IN THE COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED CAMP. THE PAST SEVERAL GFS/EC
RUNS CAN`T DECIDE WHICH.

REVIEWED THE 512Z EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. WPC PREFERENCE WAS FOR
THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WE HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL EC RUN WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE 00Z EC CAME IN
BACK IN THE COLDER CAMP.

THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA
BY DAYBREAK MON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU MON NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TUE NIGHT. QUIET NW FLOW WED GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO WNW FLOW THU-SAT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

SURFACE: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA MON MORNING
WITH WRN USA HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU TUE AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT DIVES INTO ND.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU LATE TUE NIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND WED. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS THXGVG DAY AND THEN BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE FRI. THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION SAT. THEN EVEN THE 12Z/00Z EC DISAGREE ON
WHAT HAPPENS SUN. DOES ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE THRU OR
DOES A WARM FRONT MOVE THRU?

06Z-12Z/WED THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER...S OF THE BEST MODEL
CLUSTERING WHICH TAKES THE CLIPPER THRU THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY 12Z.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM MON-WED THEN LOW THU-SAT.

TEMPS: INTERNAL VERIFICATION INDICATES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL
WITH OUR HIGHS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 2 WEEKS. SO USED BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS FOR MON-TUE WHICH RAISED HIGH TEMPS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: ANY LEFTOVER EARLY MORNING FLURRIES DEPART FROM THE TRI-CITIES
N AND E. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS WELL...BUT THEN INCREASING
MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF. WINDY IN CAA WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH N OF HWY 6.

MON NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN CLOUDS.

TUE: PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN TO START...BUT INCREASING WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS. IF THE EC/GFS CROSS SECTIONS ARE CORRECT...THE FCST
MIGHT NOT BE CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...UNTIL
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WE COULD SEE A NARROW ARC OF R/S SHWRS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ALL MODELS HAVE IT. FOR NOW FOLLOWED
THE HINTS FROM THE 12Z/00Z EC AND INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE OF R/S.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON FCST TEMP PROFILES. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE I`D
SAY THIS ENDS UP SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF RAIN SHWR.

WED: PROBABLY M/CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE JET AXIS OVERHEAD. ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THIS BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WAS LOOKING A MUCH NASTIER A FEW DAYS AGO.

WED NIGHT INTO THU AM: MULTIPLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SNOW N OF I-80. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST YET.

THXGVG DAY-SAT: P-M/CLOUDY AND COLDER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR SKIFFS OF LIGHT SNOW.

4-5 DAYS AGO WE WERE SEEING A STRONG COLD SIGNAL IN THE EC 2M TEMPS
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S. IT
THEN BACKED OFF...JUST LEAVING ONE DAY OF BITTER COLD ON THXGVG DAY.
NOW THE LAST 2 RUNS ARE BACK TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF COLD THU-SAT WITH
ONLY SLOW RECOVERY THEREAFTER.

WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND A
BREAK FROM MID-WINTER COLD IN THE BEGINNING OF DEC. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN GET ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES WITHIN THE FIRST ONE
TO TWO HOURS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...1300-1400Z. THE WIND WILL
VERY QUICKLY PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND WILL LOSE A COUPLE OF MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN STRONG RIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN
IS LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW PRIOR TO ENDING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 231144
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
544 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NICE WEATHER WAS GREAT WHILE IT LASTED...BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR A WINDY...WET...AND COLDER DAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH
COULD BE AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE
STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION COMING
TO AND END. FURTHERMORE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY ALREADY
OCCURRED AT MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

TODAY...
THE WIND...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES (ORD
TO LEXINGTON) BY AROUND 5 TO 6 AM...PASS THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES
BY 8 OR 9 AM...AND EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (BELOIT TO HEBRON)
BY 11 AM. THE WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON AND 5
PM.

TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM WERE STILL 50F OR HIGHER
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH MOIST 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL PLUMMET AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT STRONG
MIXING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SLOW THE FALL IN AIR
TEMPERATURES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IN SOME AREAS TEMPERATURES
MIGHT ACTUALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO
MIXING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GRADUALLY
FALL OFF AND THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAIN IS LIKELY. THERE IS
GREAT FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE TRI-CITES BETWEEN 7-9AM AND THEN SLIDE
EASTWARD INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIFT IS GOOD AND WE COLD SEE MODERATE RAIN
WHILE THE BAND COMES THROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO
LONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AT AND ABOVE 850MB ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...MOST
FORECAST MODELS PUT OUR SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 38 TO 43F RANGE
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING THROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING
IN THE MID 30S AND FALLING TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 20S. OVERALL...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE SFC FOR SNOW. WHILE
RAIN IS LIKELY...WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EVEN IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN
SFC TEMPERATURES WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTOGENETIC WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE PASSED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SECOND
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH EVERYONE FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE RATHER BRISK AT AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALOFT: NONE OF THE FCST PROBLEMS FROM 24 HRS AGO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE DIFLUENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE E PAC AND AK
THIS WEEK. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS AT LEAST MODERATELY AMPLIFIED NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THU. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER IS UP FOR
GRABS. DOES THE FLOW OVER N AMERICA REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER WITH A BROAD TROF E OF THE ROCKIES? OR DOES A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP OCCUR WITH A BROAD QUASI-ZONAL RIDGE? THE UKMET/GEM ARE
SOLIDLY IN THE COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED CAMP. THE PAST SEVERAL GFS/EC
RUNS CAN`T DECIDE WHICH.

REVIEWED THE 512Z EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. WPC PREFERENCE WAS FOR
THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WE HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL EC RUN WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE 00Z EC CAME IN
BACK IN THE COLDER CAMP.

THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA
BY DAYBREAK MON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU MON NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TUE NIGHT. QUIET NW FLOW WED GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO WNW FLOW THU-SAT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

SURFACE: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA MON MORNING
WITH WRN USA HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU TUE AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT DIVES INTO ND.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU LATE TUE NIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND WED. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS THXGVG DAY AND THEN BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE FRI. THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION SAT. THEN EVEN THE 12Z/00Z EC DISAGREE ON
WHAT HAPPENS SUN. DOES ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE THRU OR
DOES A WARM FRONT MOVE THRU?

06Z-12Z/WED THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER...S OF THE BEST MODEL
CLUSTERING WHICH TAKES THE CLIPPER THRU THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY 12Z.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM MON-WED THEN LOW THU-SAT.

TEMPS: INTERNAL VERIFICATION INDICATES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL
WITH OUR HIGHS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 2 WEEKS. SO USED BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS FOR MON-TUE WHICH RAISED HIGH TEMPS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: ANY LEFTOVER EARLY MORNING FLURRIES DEPART FROM THE TRI-CITIES
N AND E. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS WELL...BUT THEN INCREASING
MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF. WINDY IN CAA WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH N OF HWY 6.

MON NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN CLOUDS.

TUE: PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN TO START...BUT INCREASING WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS. IF THE EC/GFS CROSS SECTIONS ARE CORRECT...THE FCST
MIGHT NOT BE CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...UNTIL
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WE COULD SEE A NARROW ARC OF R/S SHWRS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ALL MODELS HAVE IT. FOR NOW FOLLOWED
THE HINTS FROM THE 12Z/00Z EC AND INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE OF R/S.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON FCST TEMP PROFILES. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE I`D
SAY THIS ENDS UP SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF RAIN SHWR.

WED: PROBABLY M/CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE JET AXIS OVERHEAD. ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THIS BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WAS LOOKING A MUCH NASTIER A FEW DAYS AGO.

WED NIGHT INTO THU AM: MULTIPLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SNOW N OF I-80. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST YET.

THXGVG DAY-SAT: P-M/CLOUDY AND COLDER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR SKIFFS OF LIGHT SNOW.

4-5 DAYS AGO WE WERE SEEING A STRONG COLD SIGNAL IN THE EC 2M TEMPS
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S. IT
THEN BACKED OFF...JUST LEAVING ONE DAY OF BITTER COLD ON THXGVG DAY.
NOW THE LAST 2 RUNS ARE BACK TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF COLD THU-SAT WITH
ONLY SLOW RECOVERY THEREAFTER.

WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND A
BREAK FROM MID-WINTER COLD IN THE BEGINNING OF DEC. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN GET ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES WITHIN THE FIRST ONE
TO TWO HOURS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...1300-1400Z. THE WIND WILL
VERY QUICKLY PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND WILL LOSE A COUPLE OF MPH
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN STRONG RIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN
IS LIKELY THIS MORNING WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW PRIOR TO ENDING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE VFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 231012
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
412 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NICE WEATHER WAS GREAT WHILE IT LASTED...BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
MAKING FOR A WINDY...WET...AND COLDER DAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH
COULD BE AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH...ALONG WITH THE
STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION COMING
TO AND END. FURTHERMORE...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY ALREADY
OCCURRED AT MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY TO FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

TODAY...
THE WIND...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES (ORD
TO LEXINGTON) BY AROUND 5 TO 6 AM...PASS THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES
BY 8 OR 9 AM...AND EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (BELOIT TO HEBRON)
BY 11 AM. THE WIND WILL STEADILY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON AND 5
PM.

TEMPERATURES...THE TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM WERE STILL 50F OR HIGHER
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH MOIST 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.
DEWPOINTS WILL PLUMMET AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUT STRONG
MIXING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SLOW THE FALL IN AIR
TEMPERATURES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IN SOME AREAS TEMPERATURES
MIGHT ACTUALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO
MIXING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GRADUALLY
FALL OFF AND THEN HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION...DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAIN IS LIKELY. THERE IS
GREAT FORECAST MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA
SOMEWHERE WEST OF THE TRI-CITES BETWEEN 7-9AM AND THEN SLIDE
EASTWARD INCREASING IN STRENGTH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIFT IS GOOD AND WE COLD SEE MODERATE RAIN
WHILE THE BAND COMES THROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT LAST TOO
LONG...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 3 HOURS. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AT AND ABOVE 850MB ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...MOST
FORECAST MODELS PUT OUR SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 38 TO 43F RANGE
WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS PASSING THROUGH WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING
IN THE MID 30S AND FALLING TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 20S. OVERALL...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE SFC FOR SNOW. WHILE
RAIN IS LIKELY...WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EVEN IF SOME SNOW MIXES IN
SFC TEMPERATURES WOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

TONIGHT...THE FRONTOGENETIC WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE PASSED EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SECOND
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH EVERYONE FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.
IN ADDITION...THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE RATHER BRISK AT AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALOFT: NONE OF THE FCST PROBLEMS FROM 24 HRS AGO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
SPLIT FLOW AROUND THE DIFLUENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE E PAC AND AK
THIS WEEK. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS AT LEAST MODERATELY AMPLIFIED NW FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THU. WHAT HAPPENS THEREAFTER IS UP FOR
GRABS. DOES THE FLOW OVER N AMERICA REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
COLDER WITH A BROAD TROF E OF THE ROCKIES? OR DOES A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM-UP OCCUR WITH A BROAD QUASI-ZONAL RIDGE? THE UKMET/GEM ARE
SOLIDLY IN THE COLDER MORE AMPLIFIED CAMP. THE PAST SEVERAL GFS/EC
RUNS CAN`T DECIDE WHICH.

REVIEWED THE 512Z EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION. WPC PREFERENCE WAS FOR
THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND WE HAVE NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL EC RUN WAS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE 00Z EC CAME IN
BACK IN THE COLDER CAMP.

THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE FCST AREA
BY DAYBREAK MON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU MON NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TUE NIGHT. QUIET NW FLOW WED GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO WNW FLOW THU-SAT WITH DECREASING AMPLITUDE.

SURFACE: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA MON MORNING
WITH WRN USA HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU TUE AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT DIVES INTO ND.
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU LATE TUE NIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND WED. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE OVER THE NRN PLAINS THXGVG DAY AND THEN BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE FRI. THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION SAT. THEN EVEN THE 12Z/00Z EC DISAGREE ON
WHAT HAPPENS SUN. DOES ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVE THRU OR
DOES A WARM FRONT MOVE THRU?

06Z-12Z/WED THE 00Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER...S OF THE BEST MODEL
CLUSTERING WHICH TAKES THE CLIPPER THRU THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY 12Z.

FCST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM MON-WED THEN LOW THU-SAT.

TEMPS: INTERNAL VERIFICATION INDICATES WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL
WITH OUR HIGHS FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 2 WEEKS. SO USED BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPS FOR MON-TUE WHICH RAISED HIGH TEMPS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: ANY LEFTOVER EARLY MORNING FLURRIES DEPART FROM THE TRI-CITIES
N AND E. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AS WELL...BUT THEN INCREASING
MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROF. WINDY IN CAA WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH N OF HWY 6.

MON NIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROF OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE OTHER THAN CLOUDS.

TUE: PROBABLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN TO START...BUT INCREASING WARM
FRONTAL CLOUDS. IF THE EC/GFS CROSS SECTIONS ARE CORRECT...THE FCST
MIGHT NOT BE CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...UNTIL
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET. WE COULD SEE A NARROW ARC OF R/S SHWRS
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT ALL MODELS HAVE IT. FOR NOW FOLLOWED
THE HINTS FROM THE 12Z/00Z EC AND INCLUDED A SLGT CHANCE OF R/S.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON FCST TEMP PROFILES. IF I HAD TO CHOOSE I`D
SAY THIS ENDS UP SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF RAIN SHWR.

WED: PROBABLY M/CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE JET AXIS OVERHEAD. ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THIS BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR WAS LOOKING A MUCH NASTIER A FEW DAYS AGO.

WED NIGHT INTO THU AM: MULTIPLE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TOUCH OF
LIGHT SNOW N OF I-80. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST YET.

THXGVG DAY-SAT: P-M/CLOUDY AND COLDER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR SKIFFS OF LIGHT SNOW.

4-5 DAYS AGO WE WERE SEEING A STRONG COLD SIGNAL IN THE EC 2M TEMPS
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S. IT
THEN BACKED OFF...JUST LEAVING ONE DAY OF BITTER COLD ON THXGVG DAY.
NOW THE LAST 2 RUNS ARE BACK TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF COLD THU-SAT WITH
ONLY SLOW RECOVERY THEREAFTER.

WE CONT TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND A
BREAK FROM MID-WINTER COLD IN THE BEGINNING OF DEC. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF WE CAN GET ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT TIMES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUED
LOW CLOUDS THAT COULD HOVER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KLBF 231012
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
412 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS NOT THAT DIFFERENT. WILL USE A BLEND. SOME
RADAR RETURNS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE
DECREASE. COLD FRONT JUST INTO NORTHWEST PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME TO SCHC CATEGORIES WITH NO ONE
HAVING REPORTED PRECIP RECENTLY. WITH ON GOING PRECIPITATION AND
FROPA WILL CARRY A PRE FIRST PERIOD THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WHILE 850MB
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON A FREE FALL WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
DIURNAL TREND TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE CHANGES THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. BUFR
SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS BUFKIT HAVE A DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER LOWEST CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING AROUND 5K FT OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY DAY TODAY. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 24/06Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
NORTH. LOWS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL...HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE GREATLY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

EARLY IN THE WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED /PER SOUNDINGS/ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND. THE BEST SHOT WILL BE DOWNWIND
OF THE BLACK HILLS /NW NEB/ AND NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER AS
THE WAVE SLIDES EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED AS TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT PRECIP.

BY MID WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE EC CONTINUES TO DIG
THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR. THE
THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARM. THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST ALOFT...BUT ALL EYES WILL BE HOW FAR WEST
THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT. THE EC DROPS 850 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO...WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 10 ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE THAN BEFORE AS HIGHS IN THE GFS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY...THANKGIVING...WHILE THE EC MOS HAS HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 20S AND SOME LOCAL AREAS ARE HOLDING IN THE TEENS...A
LARGER SPREAD FOR FRIDAY.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

WINDS INCREASE TO 32026G39KT SUNDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NRN NEB AFTER 21Z SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH LAST THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING. MOST
OF THE MVFR IS EXPECTED NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 231012
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
412 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS NOT THAT DIFFERENT. WILL USE A BLEND. SOME
RADAR RETURNS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE
DECREASE. COLD FRONT JUST INTO NORTHWEST PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME TO SCHC CATEGORIES WITH NO ONE
HAVING REPORTED PRECIP RECENTLY. WITH ON GOING PRECIPITATION AND
FROPA WILL CARRY A PRE FIRST PERIOD THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WHILE 850MB
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON A FREE FALL WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
DIURNAL TREND TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR PTYPE CHANGES THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. BUFR
SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTH AS WELL AS BUFKIT HAVE A DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER LOWEST CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING AROUND 5K FT OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE. BREEZY DAY TODAY. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 24/06Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
NORTH. LOWS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE SEASONAL...HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE GREATLY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

EARLY IN THE WEEK A 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED /PER SOUNDINGS/ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND. THE BEST SHOT WILL BE DOWNWIND
OF THE BLACK HILLS /NW NEB/ AND NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER AS
THE WAVE SLIDES EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED AS TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT PRECIP.

BY MID WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE EC CONTINUES TO DIG
THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR. THE
THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARM. THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST ALOFT...BUT ALL EYES WILL BE HOW FAR WEST
THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT. THE EC DROPS 850 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO...WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 10 ABOVE. MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE THAN BEFORE AS HIGHS IN THE GFS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY...THANKGIVING...WHILE THE EC MOS HAS HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 20S AND SOME LOCAL AREAS ARE HOLDING IN THE TEENS...A
LARGER SPREAD FOR FRIDAY.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT DIFFERENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

WINDS INCREASE TO 32026G39KT SUNDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NRN NEB AFTER 21Z SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH LAST THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING. MOST
OF THE MVFR IS EXPECTED NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KOAX 230935
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD AND RAIN TO SNOW CHANCES BEHIND...THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST.

BROAD TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE WERE AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND A 160KT 300MB JET KNIFING ONTO THE OREGON
COAST AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS JET ROUNDS
BASE OF DEVELOPING TROUGH...FEATURES WILL CONGEAL INTO A SHARPER BUT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO OUR EAST BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PLUNGING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER MAIN AFFECT WILL BE IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/DRIZZLE RETURNED TO MOST OF OUR CWA EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT...PROPELLED EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE...
OMAHA/LINCOLN JUST BEFORE NOON...THEN OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WITH BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL SEE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEHIND
FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY 12Z
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ON BACK SIDE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS
TIME...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 40 IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S ALL AREAS BY SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 30S
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHEAST AS FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO BRING FLURRIES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE POTENT...INDUCING DECENT WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS THEN
COULD APPROACH 40 BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTER SMALL SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...FOR NOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES.

AFOREMENTIONED THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA...BUT STILL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON LIGHT SIDE. BEYOND
THEN...MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...BUT
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
BOTH IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GFS
AND ECMWF THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THEN MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT OFFER WIDE VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH GFS THE WARMER OF THE TWO THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION NOW IS TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH OUR GOING FORECAST OF HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
BY 11-13Z AT KOFK...14-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS...AND COULD BECOME IFR WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AT KLNK/KOMA BY 09Z THAT LINGERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. SOUTH WINDS 8-14 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN ABRUPTLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA...AND INCREASING TO 15 TO
28 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY 22-24Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 230935
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD AND RAIN TO SNOW CHANCES BEHIND...THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST.

BROAD TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE WERE AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND A 160KT 300MB JET KNIFING ONTO THE OREGON
COAST AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS JET ROUNDS
BASE OF DEVELOPING TROUGH...FEATURES WILL CONGEAL INTO A SHARPER BUT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO OUR EAST BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PLUNGING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER MAIN AFFECT WILL BE IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/DRIZZLE RETURNED TO MOST OF OUR CWA EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT...PROPELLED EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE...
OMAHA/LINCOLN JUST BEFORE NOON...THEN OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WITH BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL SEE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEHIND
FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY 12Z
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ON BACK SIDE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS
TIME...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 40 IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S ALL AREAS BY SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 30S
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHEAST AS FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO BRING FLURRIES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE POTENT...INDUCING DECENT WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS THEN
COULD APPROACH 40 BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTER SMALL SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...FOR NOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES.

AFOREMENTIONED THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA...BUT STILL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON LIGHT SIDE. BEYOND
THEN...MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...BUT
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
BOTH IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GFS
AND ECMWF THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THEN MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT OFFER WIDE VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH GFS THE WARMER OF THE TWO THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION NOW IS TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH OUR GOING FORECAST OF HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
BY 11-13Z AT KOFK...14-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS...AND COULD BECOME IFR WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AT KLNK/KOMA BY 09Z THAT LINGERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. SOUTH WINDS 8-14 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN ABRUPTLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA...AND INCREASING TO 15 TO
28 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY 22-24Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 230935
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD AND RAIN TO SNOW CHANCES BEHIND...THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST.

BROAD TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE WERE AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND A 160KT 300MB JET KNIFING ONTO THE OREGON
COAST AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS JET ROUNDS
BASE OF DEVELOPING TROUGH...FEATURES WILL CONGEAL INTO A SHARPER BUT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO OUR EAST BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PLUNGING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER MAIN AFFECT WILL BE IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/DRIZZLE RETURNED TO MOST OF OUR CWA EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT...PROPELLED EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE...
OMAHA/LINCOLN JUST BEFORE NOON...THEN OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WITH BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL SEE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEHIND
FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY 12Z
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ON BACK SIDE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS
TIME...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 40 IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S ALL AREAS BY SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 30S
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHEAST AS FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO BRING FLURRIES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE POTENT...INDUCING DECENT WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS THEN
COULD APPROACH 40 BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTER SMALL SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...FOR NOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES.

AFOREMENTIONED THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA...BUT STILL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON LIGHT SIDE. BEYOND
THEN...MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...BUT
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
BOTH IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GFS
AND ECMWF THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THEN MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT OFFER WIDE VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH GFS THE WARMER OF THE TWO THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION NOW IS TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH OUR GOING FORECAST OF HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
BY 11-13Z AT KOFK...14-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS...AND COULD BECOME IFR WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AT KLNK/KOMA BY 09Z THAT LINGERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. SOUTH WINDS 8-14 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN ABRUPTLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA...AND INCREASING TO 15 TO
28 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY 22-24Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 230935
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
AHEAD AND RAIN TO SNOW CHANCES BEHIND...THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST.

BROAD TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE WERE AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND A 160KT 300MB JET KNIFING ONTO THE OREGON
COAST AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS JET ROUNDS
BASE OF DEVELOPING TROUGH...FEATURES WILL CONGEAL INTO A SHARPER BUT
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO OUR EAST BY 12Z MONDAY.
HOWEVER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PLUNGING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER MAIN AFFECT WILL BE IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLDER SIDE OF NORMAL.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/DRIZZLE RETURNED TO MOST OF OUR CWA EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS
MORNING. THAT FRONT...PROPELLED EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY UPPER LOW
AND TROUGH...WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND SHOULD REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE...
OMAHA/LINCOLN JUST BEFORE NOON...THEN OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WITH BROAD ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL SEE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEHIND
FRONT WELL INTO THE EVENING UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY 12Z
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ON BACK SIDE OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THIS
TIME...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE REALIZED DURING THE MORNING BEFORE
COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 40 IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S ALL AREAS BY SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 30S
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHEAST AS FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

SECOND SHORTWAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO BRING FLURRIES TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
THIRD SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE POTENT...INDUCING DECENT WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF IT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHS THEN
COULD APPROACH 40 BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AFTER SMALL SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...FOR NOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES.

AFOREMENTIONED THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA...BUT STILL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON LIGHT SIDE. BEYOND
THEN...MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...BUT
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
BOTH IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IS NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS FROM GFS
AND ECMWF THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THEN MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY...BUT OFFER WIDE VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES WITH GFS THE WARMER OF THE TWO THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION NOW IS TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...WHICH LINES UP NICELY WITH OUR GOING FORECAST OF HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
BY 11-13Z AT KOFK...14-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS...AND COULD BECOME IFR WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AT KLNK/KOMA BY 09Z THAT LINGERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. SOUTH WINDS 8-14 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN ABRUPTLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA...AND INCREASING TO 15 TO
28 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY 22-24Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KGID 230604
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1204 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

OUR MILD DAY TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
UNDERGOES CHANGES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A FAIRLY ZONAL REGIME TODAY
HAS RESULTED IN GOOD WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  TEMPS HAVE SURPASSED EXPECTATIONS AS STRATUS
ERODED AND READINGS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.  THE AREA
OF STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ON THE
ORDER OF 150 PCNT OF NORMAL...RESIDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTN.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN JET NOSES SE FM THE PACIFIC NW THRU THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...CARVING A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE
LLVL MOISTURE/STRATUS MIGRATES TO THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.  HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CLOUDS GET WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SFC COLD FRONT WHICH ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING...AREAS
OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE STRATUS AREA AND
A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE WENT WITH
POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW ONE MILE FOR NOW AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. LIFT OVER THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLVL JET MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO
WORRIES ABOUT FREEZING PCPN TONIGHT.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SUNDAY DAYTIME PERIOD WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PCPN TO DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE PLAINS.  PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS POINT TO HIGH CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT TO UNFOLD ON SUNDAY.  HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY....BUT COULD SEE POPS BEING RAISED FURTHER IF
TRENDS CONTINUE.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS
RAIN BUT WITH CAA IN THE AFTN...WE ARE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AROUND MID DAY OR VERY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS TEMPS COOL WE COULD SEE A FEW AREAS MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COUNTIES. ONCE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE
EAST BY EVENING...PCPN WILL RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALSO...PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AVERAGE 1 TO 3 MB AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE
AFTN HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
MONDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO ALTHOUGH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL LIKELY BE NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE NOTED BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE EC...THAT A
THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A
~125KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH OMEGA
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER OR NEAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE THEN
SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS...THAT A
THERMALLY-DIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A
~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT SAID...TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE DOES APPEAR
SOMEWHAT LACKING LATER THIS WEEK...PER PROXIMITY SOUNDING DATA FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...AND GIVEN THE DISPARITIES BETWEEN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...OPTED TO LEAVE THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTRODUCTION OF A SOMEWHAT WARMER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER
BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SHOULD THEN ALLOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE AREA...THUS ALLOWING
FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 30 AND 40S TO FINISH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE TEENS AND 20S DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT TIMES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUED
LOW CLOUDS THAT COULD HOVER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 230604
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1204 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

OUR MILD DAY TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
UNDERGOES CHANGES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A FAIRLY ZONAL REGIME TODAY
HAS RESULTED IN GOOD WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  TEMPS HAVE SURPASSED EXPECTATIONS AS STRATUS
ERODED AND READINGS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.  THE AREA
OF STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ON THE
ORDER OF 150 PCNT OF NORMAL...RESIDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTN.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN JET NOSES SE FM THE PACIFIC NW THRU THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...CARVING A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE
LLVL MOISTURE/STRATUS MIGRATES TO THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.  HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CLOUDS GET WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SFC COLD FRONT WHICH ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING...AREAS
OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE STRATUS AREA AND
A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE WENT WITH
POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW ONE MILE FOR NOW AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. LIFT OVER THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLVL JET MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO
WORRIES ABOUT FREEZING PCPN TONIGHT.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SUNDAY DAYTIME PERIOD WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PCPN TO DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE PLAINS.  PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS POINT TO HIGH CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT TO UNFOLD ON SUNDAY.  HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY....BUT COULD SEE POPS BEING RAISED FURTHER IF
TRENDS CONTINUE.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS
RAIN BUT WITH CAA IN THE AFTN...WE ARE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AROUND MID DAY OR VERY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS TEMPS COOL WE COULD SEE A FEW AREAS MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COUNTIES. ONCE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE
EAST BY EVENING...PCPN WILL RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALSO...PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AVERAGE 1 TO 3 MB AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE
AFTN HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
MONDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO ALTHOUGH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL LIKELY BE NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE NOTED BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE EC...THAT A
THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A
~125KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH OMEGA
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER OR NEAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE THEN
SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS...THAT A
THERMALLY-DIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A
~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT SAID...TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE DOES APPEAR
SOMEWHAT LACKING LATER THIS WEEK...PER PROXIMITY SOUNDING DATA FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...AND GIVEN THE DISPARITIES BETWEEN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...OPTED TO LEAVE THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTRODUCTION OF A SOMEWHAT WARMER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER
BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SHOULD THEN ALLOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE AREA...THUS ALLOWING
FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 30 AND 40S TO FINISH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE TEENS AND 20S DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT TIMES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUED
LOW CLOUDS THAT COULD HOVER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 230604
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1204 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

OUR MILD DAY TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
UNDERGOES CHANGES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A FAIRLY ZONAL REGIME TODAY
HAS RESULTED IN GOOD WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  TEMPS HAVE SURPASSED EXPECTATIONS AS STRATUS
ERODED AND READINGS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.  THE AREA
OF STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ON THE
ORDER OF 150 PCNT OF NORMAL...RESIDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTN.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN JET NOSES SE FM THE PACIFIC NW THRU THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...CARVING A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE
LLVL MOISTURE/STRATUS MIGRATES TO THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.  HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CLOUDS GET WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SFC COLD FRONT WHICH ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING...AREAS
OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE STRATUS AREA AND
A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE WENT WITH
POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW ONE MILE FOR NOW AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. LIFT OVER THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLVL JET MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO
WORRIES ABOUT FREEZING PCPN TONIGHT.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SUNDAY DAYTIME PERIOD WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PCPN TO DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE PLAINS.  PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS POINT TO HIGH CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT TO UNFOLD ON SUNDAY.  HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY....BUT COULD SEE POPS BEING RAISED FURTHER IF
TRENDS CONTINUE.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS
RAIN BUT WITH CAA IN THE AFTN...WE ARE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AROUND MID DAY OR VERY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS TEMPS COOL WE COULD SEE A FEW AREAS MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COUNTIES. ONCE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE
EAST BY EVENING...PCPN WILL RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALSO...PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AVERAGE 1 TO 3 MB AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE
AFTN HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
MONDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO ALTHOUGH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL LIKELY BE NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE NOTED BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE EC...THAT A
THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A
~125KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH OMEGA
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER OR NEAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE THEN
SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS...THAT A
THERMALLY-DIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A
~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT SAID...TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE DOES APPEAR
SOMEWHAT LACKING LATER THIS WEEK...PER PROXIMITY SOUNDING DATA FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...AND GIVEN THE DISPARITIES BETWEEN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...OPTED TO LEAVE THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTRODUCTION OF A SOMEWHAT WARMER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER
BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SHOULD THEN ALLOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE AREA...THUS ALLOWING
FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 30 AND 40S TO FINISH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE TEENS AND 20S DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT TIMES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUED
LOW CLOUDS THAT COULD HOVER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 230604
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1204 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

OUR MILD DAY TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
UNDERGOES CHANGES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A FAIRLY ZONAL REGIME TODAY
HAS RESULTED IN GOOD WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  TEMPS HAVE SURPASSED EXPECTATIONS AS STRATUS
ERODED AND READINGS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.  THE AREA
OF STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ON THE
ORDER OF 150 PCNT OF NORMAL...RESIDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTN.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN JET NOSES SE FM THE PACIFIC NW THRU THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...CARVING A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE
LLVL MOISTURE/STRATUS MIGRATES TO THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.  HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CLOUDS GET WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SFC COLD FRONT WHICH ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING...AREAS
OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE STRATUS AREA AND
A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE WENT WITH
POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW ONE MILE FOR NOW AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. LIFT OVER THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLVL JET MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO
WORRIES ABOUT FREEZING PCPN TONIGHT.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SUNDAY DAYTIME PERIOD WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PCPN TO DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE PLAINS.  PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS POINT TO HIGH CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT TO UNFOLD ON SUNDAY.  HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY....BUT COULD SEE POPS BEING RAISED FURTHER IF
TRENDS CONTINUE.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS
RAIN BUT WITH CAA IN THE AFTN...WE ARE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AROUND MID DAY OR VERY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS TEMPS COOL WE COULD SEE A FEW AREAS MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COUNTIES. ONCE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE
EAST BY EVENING...PCPN WILL RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALSO...PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AVERAGE 1 TO 3 MB AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE
AFTN HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
MONDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO ALTHOUGH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL LIKELY BE NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE NOTED BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE EC...THAT A
THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A
~125KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH OMEGA
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER OR NEAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE THEN
SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS...THAT A
THERMALLY-DIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A
~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT SAID...TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE DOES APPEAR
SOMEWHAT LACKING LATER THIS WEEK...PER PROXIMITY SOUNDING DATA FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...AND GIVEN THE DISPARITIES BETWEEN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...OPTED TO LEAVE THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTRODUCTION OF A SOMEWHAT WARMER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER
BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SHOULD THEN ALLOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE AREA...THUS ALLOWING
FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 30 AND 40S TO FINISH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE TEENS AND 20S DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT TIMES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUED
LOW CLOUDS THAT COULD HOVER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KLBF 230522 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS. THE FIRST
WAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS WHICH WAS DRIVING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM CARRIED 40 AND 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN SHOWERS NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WAS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. THERE WERE SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM...ONE OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND
ANOTHER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST
SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z WITH SEVERAL
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRANCHING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW DOWN
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO IDAHO. LOCALLY...DEEP MIXING UP TO
750MB IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO LAPS SOUNDINGS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 60S WITH KMCK REACHING 70 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY WINDS ALOFT WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WHICH BROUGH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS IN PLACES. THERE WAS
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH DID DIMINISH THE WINDS DESPITE THE DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT DROPPED INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS ATERNOON WHICH
LIMITED TEMPERATURE RISES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF SHERIDAN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY DEAL WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WHICH PLAYS A PART IN THE WIND...TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND ALSO BRING IN QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. THINKING THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL BURST OF WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN AFTER A BIT OF A LULL THEY WILL
INCREASE AFTER 12Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT MORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850-800MB DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS AT 850MB AT 35-45 KTS SHOULD BE A
WINDY DAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER THIN
BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING IT WILL ONLY LAST 3-4 HOURS AND WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING TOP
DOWN SATURATION AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. DON/T EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE MUCH WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS TO LEAD TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON GETTING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SO DID RAISE CHANCES TONIGHT.

INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULDN/T DECOUPLE IN MOST PLACES OR IF IT DOES IT
WILL BE BRIEFLY SO NOT ALLOWING MUCH TIME TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DROPS
IN TEMPERATURES. SECOND...HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
SURFACE INSULATED SO ANOTHER STRIKE AGAINST RADIATIONAL COOLING. AND
THIRD...WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EVEN AREAS THAT START
TO DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WON/T HAVE ALL NIGHT TO COOL SO WENT
UP A FEW DEGREES.

FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR 0C ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT WARMING IN
THE AFTERNOON SO FELT HIGHS AROUND 40 WERE A BIT TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
INDICATE SOME MEAGER LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER FROM 00Z TO 09Z SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WAS AN INITIAL CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER RAIN AND WILL KEEP PTYPES AS ALL SNOW.
ON MONDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
THE FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY WIDELY MONDAY WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO LOWER MID
40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THANKS TO A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...I DID INCLUDE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL WAA NOTED IN
THE MID LAYERS. AFTER LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
THIS MORNING HAD DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...PARTICULARLY IN RESPECT TO AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ITS LOCATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BEYOND DAY 7. THE LATEST
MODELS...IE. ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS FROM THIS MORNING NO LONGER HAVE
180 DEGREE DIFFERING SOLNS BEYOND DAY 7. HOWEVER...WITH THE NEWEST
RUNS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS HOLDS ONTO WARM AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
SURPRISE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR NORTH PLATTE WEDNESDAY RANGES FROM
A HIGH OF 59 IN THE MEX...TO 33 WITH THE ECE. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT HAS A RANGE IN HIGHS FROM 39 TO 60 WITH THE
MEAN AT 50. ATTM DECIDED TO INCORPORATE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A
BLEND OF THE MEAN MEN GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A HIGH
WEDNESDAY OF 49 FOR NORTH PLATTE. NO DOUBT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID RANGE PATTERN SORTS ITSELF OUT. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MUCH HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
SURGE OF COLD AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA BEYOND
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. AS FOR PCPN
CHANCES...MAINLY DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE AS FORCING
IS FAIRLY WEEK. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. SINCE FRONTAL TIMING IS UP IN THE
AIR ATTM...WILL KEEP ANY POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

WINDS INCREASE TO 32026G39KT SUNDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NRN NEB AFTER 21Z SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH LAST THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING. MOST
OF THE MVFR IS EXPECTED NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 230522 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS. THE FIRST
WAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS WHICH WAS DRIVING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM CARRIED 40 AND 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN SHOWERS NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WAS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. THERE WERE SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM...ONE OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND
ANOTHER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST
SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z WITH SEVERAL
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRANCHING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW DOWN
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO IDAHO. LOCALLY...DEEP MIXING UP TO
750MB IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO LAPS SOUNDINGS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 60S WITH KMCK REACHING 70 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY WINDS ALOFT WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WHICH BROUGH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS IN PLACES. THERE WAS
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH DID DIMINISH THE WINDS DESPITE THE DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT DROPPED INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS ATERNOON WHICH
LIMITED TEMPERATURE RISES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF SHERIDAN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY DEAL WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WHICH PLAYS A PART IN THE WIND...TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND ALSO BRING IN QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. THINKING THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL BURST OF WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN AFTER A BIT OF A LULL THEY WILL
INCREASE AFTER 12Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT MORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850-800MB DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS AT 850MB AT 35-45 KTS SHOULD BE A
WINDY DAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER THIN
BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING IT WILL ONLY LAST 3-4 HOURS AND WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING TOP
DOWN SATURATION AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. DON/T EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE MUCH WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS TO LEAD TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON GETTING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SO DID RAISE CHANCES TONIGHT.

INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULDN/T DECOUPLE IN MOST PLACES OR IF IT DOES IT
WILL BE BRIEFLY SO NOT ALLOWING MUCH TIME TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DROPS
IN TEMPERATURES. SECOND...HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
SURFACE INSULATED SO ANOTHER STRIKE AGAINST RADIATIONAL COOLING. AND
THIRD...WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EVEN AREAS THAT START
TO DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WON/T HAVE ALL NIGHT TO COOL SO WENT
UP A FEW DEGREES.

FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR 0C ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT WARMING IN
THE AFTERNOON SO FELT HIGHS AROUND 40 WERE A BIT TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
INDICATE SOME MEAGER LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER FROM 00Z TO 09Z SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WAS AN INITIAL CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER RAIN AND WILL KEEP PTYPES AS ALL SNOW.
ON MONDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
THE FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY WIDELY MONDAY WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO LOWER MID
40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THANKS TO A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...I DID INCLUDE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL WAA NOTED IN
THE MID LAYERS. AFTER LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
THIS MORNING HAD DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...PARTICULARLY IN RESPECT TO AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ITS LOCATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BEYOND DAY 7. THE LATEST
MODELS...IE. ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS FROM THIS MORNING NO LONGER HAVE
180 DEGREE DIFFERING SOLNS BEYOND DAY 7. HOWEVER...WITH THE NEWEST
RUNS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS HOLDS ONTO WARM AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
SURPRISE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR NORTH PLATTE WEDNESDAY RANGES FROM
A HIGH OF 59 IN THE MEX...TO 33 WITH THE ECE. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT HAS A RANGE IN HIGHS FROM 39 TO 60 WITH THE
MEAN AT 50. ATTM DECIDED TO INCORPORATE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A
BLEND OF THE MEAN MEN GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A HIGH
WEDNESDAY OF 49 FOR NORTH PLATTE. NO DOUBT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID RANGE PATTERN SORTS ITSELF OUT. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MUCH HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
SURGE OF COLD AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA BEYOND
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. AS FOR PCPN
CHANCES...MAINLY DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE AS FORCING
IS FAIRLY WEEK. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. SINCE FRONTAL TIMING IS UP IN THE
AIR ATTM...WILL KEEP ANY POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

WINDS INCREASE TO 32026G39KT SUNDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NRN NEB AFTER 21Z SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH LAST THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING. MOST
OF THE MVFR IS EXPECTED NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 230522 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS. THE FIRST
WAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS WHICH WAS DRIVING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM CARRIED 40 AND 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN SHOWERS NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WAS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. THERE WERE SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM...ONE OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND
ANOTHER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST
SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z WITH SEVERAL
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRANCHING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW DOWN
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO IDAHO. LOCALLY...DEEP MIXING UP TO
750MB IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO LAPS SOUNDINGS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 60S WITH KMCK REACHING 70 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY WINDS ALOFT WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WHICH BROUGH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS IN PLACES. THERE WAS
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH DID DIMINISH THE WINDS DESPITE THE DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT DROPPED INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS ATERNOON WHICH
LIMITED TEMPERATURE RISES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF SHERIDAN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY DEAL WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WHICH PLAYS A PART IN THE WIND...TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND ALSO BRING IN QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. THINKING THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL BURST OF WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN AFTER A BIT OF A LULL THEY WILL
INCREASE AFTER 12Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT MORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850-800MB DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS AT 850MB AT 35-45 KTS SHOULD BE A
WINDY DAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER THIN
BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING IT WILL ONLY LAST 3-4 HOURS AND WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING TOP
DOWN SATURATION AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. DON/T EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE MUCH WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS TO LEAD TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON GETTING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SO DID RAISE CHANCES TONIGHT.

INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULDN/T DECOUPLE IN MOST PLACES OR IF IT DOES IT
WILL BE BRIEFLY SO NOT ALLOWING MUCH TIME TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DROPS
IN TEMPERATURES. SECOND...HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
SURFACE INSULATED SO ANOTHER STRIKE AGAINST RADIATIONAL COOLING. AND
THIRD...WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EVEN AREAS THAT START
TO DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WON/T HAVE ALL NIGHT TO COOL SO WENT
UP A FEW DEGREES.

FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR 0C ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT WARMING IN
THE AFTERNOON SO FELT HIGHS AROUND 40 WERE A BIT TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
INDICATE SOME MEAGER LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER FROM 00Z TO 09Z SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WAS AN INITIAL CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER RAIN AND WILL KEEP PTYPES AS ALL SNOW.
ON MONDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
THE FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY WIDELY MONDAY WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO LOWER MID
40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THANKS TO A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...I DID INCLUDE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL WAA NOTED IN
THE MID LAYERS. AFTER LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
THIS MORNING HAD DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...PARTICULARLY IN RESPECT TO AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ITS LOCATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BEYOND DAY 7. THE LATEST
MODELS...IE. ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS FROM THIS MORNING NO LONGER HAVE
180 DEGREE DIFFERING SOLNS BEYOND DAY 7. HOWEVER...WITH THE NEWEST
RUNS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS HOLDS ONTO WARM AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
SURPRISE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR NORTH PLATTE WEDNESDAY RANGES FROM
A HIGH OF 59 IN THE MEX...TO 33 WITH THE ECE. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT HAS A RANGE IN HIGHS FROM 39 TO 60 WITH THE
MEAN AT 50. ATTM DECIDED TO INCORPORATE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A
BLEND OF THE MEAN MEN GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A HIGH
WEDNESDAY OF 49 FOR NORTH PLATTE. NO DOUBT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID RANGE PATTERN SORTS ITSELF OUT. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MUCH HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
SURGE OF COLD AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA BEYOND
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. AS FOR PCPN
CHANCES...MAINLY DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE AS FORCING
IS FAIRLY WEEK. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. SINCE FRONTAL TIMING IS UP IN THE
AIR ATTM...WILL KEEP ANY POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

WINDS INCREASE TO 32026G39KT SUNDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NRN NEB AFTER 21Z SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH LAST THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING. MOST
OF THE MVFR IS EXPECTED NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 230522 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS. THE FIRST
WAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS WHICH WAS DRIVING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM CARRIED 40 AND 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN SHOWERS NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WAS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. THERE WERE SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM...ONE OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND
ANOTHER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST
SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z WITH SEVERAL
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRANCHING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW DOWN
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO IDAHO. LOCALLY...DEEP MIXING UP TO
750MB IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO LAPS SOUNDINGS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 60S WITH KMCK REACHING 70 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY WINDS ALOFT WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WHICH BROUGH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS IN PLACES. THERE WAS
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH DID DIMINISH THE WINDS DESPITE THE DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT DROPPED INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS ATERNOON WHICH
LIMITED TEMPERATURE RISES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF SHERIDAN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY DEAL WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WHICH PLAYS A PART IN THE WIND...TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND ALSO BRING IN QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. THINKING THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL BURST OF WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN AFTER A BIT OF A LULL THEY WILL
INCREASE AFTER 12Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT MORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850-800MB DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS AT 850MB AT 35-45 KTS SHOULD BE A
WINDY DAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER THIN
BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING IT WILL ONLY LAST 3-4 HOURS AND WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING TOP
DOWN SATURATION AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. DON/T EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE MUCH WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS TO LEAD TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON GETTING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SO DID RAISE CHANCES TONIGHT.

INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULDN/T DECOUPLE IN MOST PLACES OR IF IT DOES IT
WILL BE BRIEFLY SO NOT ALLOWING MUCH TIME TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DROPS
IN TEMPERATURES. SECOND...HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
SURFACE INSULATED SO ANOTHER STRIKE AGAINST RADIATIONAL COOLING. AND
THIRD...WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EVEN AREAS THAT START
TO DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WON/T HAVE ALL NIGHT TO COOL SO WENT
UP A FEW DEGREES.

FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR 0C ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT WARMING IN
THE AFTERNOON SO FELT HIGHS AROUND 40 WERE A BIT TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
INDICATE SOME MEAGER LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER FROM 00Z TO 09Z SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WAS AN INITIAL CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER RAIN AND WILL KEEP PTYPES AS ALL SNOW.
ON MONDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
THE FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY WIDELY MONDAY WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO LOWER MID
40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THANKS TO A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...I DID INCLUDE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL WAA NOTED IN
THE MID LAYERS. AFTER LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
THIS MORNING HAD DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...PARTICULARLY IN RESPECT TO AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ITS LOCATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BEYOND DAY 7. THE LATEST
MODELS...IE. ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS FROM THIS MORNING NO LONGER HAVE
180 DEGREE DIFFERING SOLNS BEYOND DAY 7. HOWEVER...WITH THE NEWEST
RUNS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS HOLDS ONTO WARM AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
SURPRISE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR NORTH PLATTE WEDNESDAY RANGES FROM
A HIGH OF 59 IN THE MEX...TO 33 WITH THE ECE. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT HAS A RANGE IN HIGHS FROM 39 TO 60 WITH THE
MEAN AT 50. ATTM DECIDED TO INCORPORATE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A
BLEND OF THE MEAN MEN GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A HIGH
WEDNESDAY OF 49 FOR NORTH PLATTE. NO DOUBT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID RANGE PATTERN SORTS ITSELF OUT. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MUCH HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
SURGE OF COLD AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA BEYOND
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. AS FOR PCPN
CHANCES...MAINLY DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE AS FORCING
IS FAIRLY WEEK. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. SINCE FRONTAL TIMING IS UP IN THE
AIR ATTM...WILL KEEP ANY POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

WINDS INCREASE TO 32026G39KT SUNDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NRN NEB AFTER 21Z SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH LAST THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING. MOST
OF THE MVFR IS EXPECTED NORTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KOAX 230517
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT AND RESULTANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL?...SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
FLURRIES/CHC LIGHT SNOW WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WINDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S WERE COMMON LOCALLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE
BANK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. EVEN 50S WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER THE STRATUS.

ONE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z AND IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...6.5-7 DEG C/KM WITH OMEGA INCREASING.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH AND THE SREF HAS A 5-10% PROB FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO...SO DID
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND CAN
FURTHER REFINE POPS AS NEEDED. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD ALL
RAIN...HOWEVER COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. ADDED FLURRIES AND ALSO COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR NOW
HAVE WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
BY 11-13Z AT KOFK...14-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS...AND COULD BECOME IFR WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AT KLNK/KOMA BY 09Z THAT LINGERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. SOUTH WINDS 8-14 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN ABRUPTLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA...AND INCREASING TO 15 TO
28 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY 22-24Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 230517
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT AND RESULTANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL?...SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
FLURRIES/CHC LIGHT SNOW WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WINDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S WERE COMMON LOCALLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE
BANK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. EVEN 50S WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER THE STRATUS.

ONE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z AND IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...6.5-7 DEG C/KM WITH OMEGA INCREASING.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH AND THE SREF HAS A 5-10% PROB FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO...SO DID
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND CAN
FURTHER REFINE POPS AS NEEDED. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD ALL
RAIN...HOWEVER COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. ADDED FLURRIES AND ALSO COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR NOW
HAVE WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
BY 11-13Z AT KOFK...14-17Z AT KLNK/KOMA. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS...AND COULD BECOME IFR WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AT KLNK/KOMA BY 09Z THAT LINGERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. SOUTH WINDS 8-14 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN ABRUPTLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA...AND INCREASING TO 15 TO
28 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY 22-24Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KGID 222357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
557 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

OUR MILD DAY TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
UNDERGOES CHANGES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A FAIRLY ZONAL REGIME TODAY
HAS RESULTED IN GOOD WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  TEMPS HAVE SURPASSED EXPECTATIONS AS STRATUS
ERODED AND READINGS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.  THE AREA
OF STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ON THE
ORDER OF 150 PCNT OF NORMAL...RESIDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTN.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN JET NOSES SE FM THE PACIFIC NW THRU THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...CARVING A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE
LLVL MOISTURE/STRATUS MIGRATES TO THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.  HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CLOUDS GET WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SFC COLD FRONT WHICH ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING...AREAS
OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE STRATUS AREA AND
A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE WENT WITH
POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW ONE MILE FOR NOW AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. LIFT OVER THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLVL JET MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO
WORRIES ABOUT FREEZING PCPN TONIGHT.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SUNDAY DAYTIME PERIOD WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PCPN TO DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE PLAINS.  PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS POINT TO HIGH CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT TO UNFOLD ON SUNDAY.  HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY....BUT COULD SEE POPS BEING RAISED FURTHER IF
TRENDS CONTINUE.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS
RAIN BUT WITH CAA IN THE AFTN...WE ARE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AROUND MID DAY OR VERY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS TEMPS COOL WE COULD SEE A FEW AREAS MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COUNTIES. ONCE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE
EAST BY EVENING...PCPN WILL RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALSO...PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AVERAGE 1 TO 3 MB AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE
AFTN HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
MONDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO ALTHOUGH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL LIKELY BE NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE NOTED BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE EC...THAT A
THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A
~125KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH OMEGA
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER OR NEAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE THEN
SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS...THAT A
THERMALLY-DIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A
~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT SAID...TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE DOES APPEAR
SOMEWHAT LACKING LATER THIS WEEK...PER PROXIMITY SOUNDING DATA FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...AND GIVEN THE DISPARITIES BETWEEN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...OPTED TO LEAVE THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTRODUCTION OF A SOMEWHAT WARMER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER
BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SHOULD THEN ALLOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE AREA...THUS ALLOWING
FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 30 AND 40S TO FINISH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE TEENS AND 20S DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TAFS OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AS WE COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL...EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT
MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG FORMATION. THAT SAID...SOME MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO SHOW A BAND OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...SO DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE REMOVING
THIS POSSIBILITY COMPLETELY DESPITE UNFAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION...AND KEPT WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY AFT 23/06Z. BY EARLY
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS...WITH VFR CIGS
PREVAILING AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AFT 23/18Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 222357
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
557 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

OUR MILD DAY TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
UNDERGOES CHANGES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A FAIRLY ZONAL REGIME TODAY
HAS RESULTED IN GOOD WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  TEMPS HAVE SURPASSED EXPECTATIONS AS STRATUS
ERODED AND READINGS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.  THE AREA
OF STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ON THE
ORDER OF 150 PCNT OF NORMAL...RESIDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTN.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN JET NOSES SE FM THE PACIFIC NW THRU THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...CARVING A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE
LLVL MOISTURE/STRATUS MIGRATES TO THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.  HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CLOUDS GET WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SFC COLD FRONT WHICH ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING...AREAS
OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE STRATUS AREA AND
A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE WENT WITH
POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW ONE MILE FOR NOW AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. LIFT OVER THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLVL JET MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO
WORRIES ABOUT FREEZING PCPN TONIGHT.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SUNDAY DAYTIME PERIOD WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PCPN TO DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE PLAINS.  PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS POINT TO HIGH CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT TO UNFOLD ON SUNDAY.  HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY....BUT COULD SEE POPS BEING RAISED FURTHER IF
TRENDS CONTINUE.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS
RAIN BUT WITH CAA IN THE AFTN...WE ARE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AROUND MID DAY OR VERY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS TEMPS COOL WE COULD SEE A FEW AREAS MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COUNTIES. ONCE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE
EAST BY EVENING...PCPN WILL RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALSO...PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AVERAGE 1 TO 3 MB AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE
AFTN HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
MONDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO ALTHOUGH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL LIKELY BE NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE NOTED BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE EC...THAT A
THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A
~125KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH OMEGA
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER OR NEAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE THEN
SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS...THAT A
THERMALLY-DIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A
~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT SAID...TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE DOES APPEAR
SOMEWHAT LACKING LATER THIS WEEK...PER PROXIMITY SOUNDING DATA FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...AND GIVEN THE DISPARITIES BETWEEN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...OPTED TO LEAVE THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTRODUCTION OF A SOMEWHAT WARMER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER
BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SHOULD THEN ALLOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE AREA...THUS ALLOWING
FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 30 AND 40S TO FINISH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE TEENS AND 20S DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TAFS OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AS WE COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL...EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT
MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OVERNIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG FORMATION. THAT SAID...SOME MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO SHOW A BAND OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...SO DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE REMOVING
THIS POSSIBILITY COMPLETELY DESPITE UNFAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION...AND KEPT WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY AFT 23/06Z. BY EARLY
MORNING...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS...WITH VFR CIGS
PREVAILING AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AFT 23/18Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KLBF 222329 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS. THE FIRST
WAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS WHICH WAS DRIVING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM CARRIED 40 AND 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN SHOWERS NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WAS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. THERE WERE SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM...ONE OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND
ANOTHER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST
SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z WITH SEVERAL
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRANCHING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW DOWN
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO IDAHO. LOCALLY...DEEP MIXING UP TO
750MB IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO LAPS SOUNDINGS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 60S WITH KMCK REACHING 70 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY WINDS ALOFT WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WHICH BROUGH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS IN PLACES. THERE WAS
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH DID DIMINISH THE WINDS DESPITE THE DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT DROPPED INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS ATERNOON WHICH
LIMITED TEMPERATURE RISES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF SHERIDAN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY DEAL WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WHICH PLAYS A PART IN THE WIND...TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND ALSO BRING IN QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. THINKING THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL BURST OF WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN AFTER A BIT OF A LULL THEY WILL
INCREASE AFTER 12Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT MORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850-800MB DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS AT 850MB AT 35-45 KTS SHOULD BE A
WINDY DAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER THIN
BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING IT WILL ONLY LAST 3-4 HOURS AND WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING TOP
DOWN SATURATION AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. DON/T EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE MUCH WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS TO LEAD TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON GETTING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SO DID RAISE CHANCES TONIGHT.

INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULDN/T DECOUPLE IN MOST PLACES OR IF IT DOES IT
WILL BE BRIEFLY SO NOT ALLOWING MUCH TIME TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DROPS
IN TEMPERATURES. SECOND...HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
SURFACE INSULATED SO ANOTHER STRIKE AGAINST RADIATIONAL COOLING. AND
THIRD...WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EVEN AREAS THAT START
TO DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WON/T HAVE ALL NIGHT TO COOL SO WENT
UP A FEW DEGREES.

FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR 0C ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT WARMING IN
THE AFTERNOON SO FELT HIGHS AROUND 40 WERE A BIT TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
INDICATE SOME MEAGER LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER FROM 00Z TO 09Z SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WAS AN INITIAL CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER RAIN AND WILL KEEP PTYPES AS ALL SNOW.
ON MONDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
THE FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY WIDELY MONDAY WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO LOWER MID
40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THANKS TO A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...I DID INCLUDE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL WAA NOTED IN
THE MID LAYERS. AFTER LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
THIS MORNING HAD DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...PARTICULARLY IN RESPECT TO AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ITS LOCATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BEYOND DAY 7. THE LATEST
MODELS...IE. ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS FROM THIS MORNING NO LONGER HAVE
180 DEGREE DIFFERING SOLNS BEYOND DAY 7. HOWEVER...WITH THE NEWEST
RUNS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS HOLDS ONTO WARM AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
SURPRISE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR NORTH PLATTE WEDNESDAY RANGES FROM
A HIGH OF 59 IN THE MEX...TO 33 WITH THE ECE. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT HAS A RANGE IN HIGHS FROM 39 TO 60 WITH THE
MEAN AT 50. ATTM DECIDED TO INCORPORATE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A
BLEND OF THE MEAN MEN GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A HIGH
WEDNESDAY OF 49 FOR NORTH PLATTE. NO DOUBT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID RANGE PATTERN SORTS ITSELF OUT. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MUCH HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
SURGE OF COLD AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA BEYOND
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. AS FOR PCPN
CHANCES...MAINLY DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE AS FORCING
IS FAIRLY WEEK. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. SINCE FRONTAL TIMING IS UP IN THE
AIR ATTM...WILL KEEP ANY POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN WY WILL SWEEP THE FCST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MOST
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN THE VERY WARM AIR IN PLACE THIS EVENING.

SFC WINDS INCREASE TO 33025G35KT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 222329 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS. THE FIRST
WAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS WHICH WAS DRIVING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM CARRIED 40 AND 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN SHOWERS NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WAS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. THERE WERE SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM...ONE OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND
ANOTHER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST
SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z WITH SEVERAL
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRANCHING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW DOWN
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO IDAHO. LOCALLY...DEEP MIXING UP TO
750MB IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO LAPS SOUNDINGS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 60S WITH KMCK REACHING 70 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY WINDS ALOFT WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WHICH BROUGH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS IN PLACES. THERE WAS
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH DID DIMINISH THE WINDS DESPITE THE DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT DROPPED INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS ATERNOON WHICH
LIMITED TEMPERATURE RISES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF SHERIDAN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY DEAL WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WHICH PLAYS A PART IN THE WIND...TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND ALSO BRING IN QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. THINKING THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL BURST OF WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN AFTER A BIT OF A LULL THEY WILL
INCREASE AFTER 12Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT MORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850-800MB DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS AT 850MB AT 35-45 KTS SHOULD BE A
WINDY DAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER THIN
BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING IT WILL ONLY LAST 3-4 HOURS AND WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING TOP
DOWN SATURATION AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. DON/T EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE MUCH WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS TO LEAD TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON GETTING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SO DID RAISE CHANCES TONIGHT.

INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULDN/T DECOUPLE IN MOST PLACES OR IF IT DOES IT
WILL BE BRIEFLY SO NOT ALLOWING MUCH TIME TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DROPS
IN TEMPERATURES. SECOND...HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
SURFACE INSULATED SO ANOTHER STRIKE AGAINST RADIATIONAL COOLING. AND
THIRD...WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EVEN AREAS THAT START
TO DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WON/T HAVE ALL NIGHT TO COOL SO WENT
UP A FEW DEGREES.

FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR 0C ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT WARMING IN
THE AFTERNOON SO FELT HIGHS AROUND 40 WERE A BIT TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
INDICATE SOME MEAGER LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER FROM 00Z TO 09Z SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WAS AN INITIAL CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER RAIN AND WILL KEEP PTYPES AS ALL SNOW.
ON MONDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
THE FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY WIDELY MONDAY WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO LOWER MID
40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THANKS TO A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...I DID INCLUDE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL WAA NOTED IN
THE MID LAYERS. AFTER LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
THIS MORNING HAD DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...PARTICULARLY IN RESPECT TO AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ITS LOCATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BEYOND DAY 7. THE LATEST
MODELS...IE. ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS FROM THIS MORNING NO LONGER HAVE
180 DEGREE DIFFERING SOLNS BEYOND DAY 7. HOWEVER...WITH THE NEWEST
RUNS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS HOLDS ONTO WARM AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
SURPRISE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR NORTH PLATTE WEDNESDAY RANGES FROM
A HIGH OF 59 IN THE MEX...TO 33 WITH THE ECE. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT HAS A RANGE IN HIGHS FROM 39 TO 60 WITH THE
MEAN AT 50. ATTM DECIDED TO INCORPORATE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A
BLEND OF THE MEAN MEN GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A HIGH
WEDNESDAY OF 49 FOR NORTH PLATTE. NO DOUBT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID RANGE PATTERN SORTS ITSELF OUT. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MUCH HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
SURGE OF COLD AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA BEYOND
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. AS FOR PCPN
CHANCES...MAINLY DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE AS FORCING
IS FAIRLY WEEK. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. SINCE FRONTAL TIMING IS UP IN THE
AIR ATTM...WILL KEEP ANY POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN WY WILL SWEEP THE FCST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MOST
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN THE VERY WARM AIR IN PLACE THIS EVENING.

SFC WINDS INCREASE TO 33025G35KT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 222329 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS. THE FIRST
WAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS WHICH WAS DRIVING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM CARRIED 40 AND 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN SHOWERS NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WAS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. THERE WERE SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM...ONE OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND
ANOTHER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST
SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z WITH SEVERAL
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRANCHING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW DOWN
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO IDAHO. LOCALLY...DEEP MIXING UP TO
750MB IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO LAPS SOUNDINGS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 60S WITH KMCK REACHING 70 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY WINDS ALOFT WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WHICH BROUGH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS IN PLACES. THERE WAS
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH DID DIMINISH THE WINDS DESPITE THE DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT DROPPED INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS ATERNOON WHICH
LIMITED TEMPERATURE RISES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF SHERIDAN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY DEAL WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WHICH PLAYS A PART IN THE WIND...TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND ALSO BRING IN QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. THINKING THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL BURST OF WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN AFTER A BIT OF A LULL THEY WILL
INCREASE AFTER 12Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT MORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850-800MB DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS AT 850MB AT 35-45 KTS SHOULD BE A
WINDY DAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER THIN
BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING IT WILL ONLY LAST 3-4 HOURS AND WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING TOP
DOWN SATURATION AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. DON/T EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE MUCH WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS TO LEAD TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON GETTING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SO DID RAISE CHANCES TONIGHT.

INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULDN/T DECOUPLE IN MOST PLACES OR IF IT DOES IT
WILL BE BRIEFLY SO NOT ALLOWING MUCH TIME TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DROPS
IN TEMPERATURES. SECOND...HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
SURFACE INSULATED SO ANOTHER STRIKE AGAINST RADIATIONAL COOLING. AND
THIRD...WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EVEN AREAS THAT START
TO DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WON/T HAVE ALL NIGHT TO COOL SO WENT
UP A FEW DEGREES.

FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR 0C ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT WARMING IN
THE AFTERNOON SO FELT HIGHS AROUND 40 WERE A BIT TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
INDICATE SOME MEAGER LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER FROM 00Z TO 09Z SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WAS AN INITIAL CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER RAIN AND WILL KEEP PTYPES AS ALL SNOW.
ON MONDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
THE FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY WIDELY MONDAY WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO LOWER MID
40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THANKS TO A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...I DID INCLUDE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL WAA NOTED IN
THE MID LAYERS. AFTER LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
THIS MORNING HAD DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...PARTICULARLY IN RESPECT TO AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ITS LOCATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BEYOND DAY 7. THE LATEST
MODELS...IE. ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS FROM THIS MORNING NO LONGER HAVE
180 DEGREE DIFFERING SOLNS BEYOND DAY 7. HOWEVER...WITH THE NEWEST
RUNS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS HOLDS ONTO WARM AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
SURPRISE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR NORTH PLATTE WEDNESDAY RANGES FROM
A HIGH OF 59 IN THE MEX...TO 33 WITH THE ECE. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT HAS A RANGE IN HIGHS FROM 39 TO 60 WITH THE
MEAN AT 50. ATTM DECIDED TO INCORPORATE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A
BLEND OF THE MEAN MEN GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A HIGH
WEDNESDAY OF 49 FOR NORTH PLATTE. NO DOUBT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID RANGE PATTERN SORTS ITSELF OUT. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MUCH HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
SURGE OF COLD AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA BEYOND
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. AS FOR PCPN
CHANCES...MAINLY DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE AS FORCING
IS FAIRLY WEEK. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. SINCE FRONTAL TIMING IS UP IN THE
AIR ATTM...WILL KEEP ANY POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN WY WILL SWEEP THE FCST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MOST
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN THE VERY WARM AIR IN PLACE THIS EVENING.

SFC WINDS INCREASE TO 33025G35KT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 222329 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS. THE FIRST
WAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS WHICH WAS DRIVING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM CARRIED 40 AND 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN SHOWERS NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WAS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. THERE WERE SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM...ONE OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND
ANOTHER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST
SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z WITH SEVERAL
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRANCHING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW DOWN
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO IDAHO. LOCALLY...DEEP MIXING UP TO
750MB IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO LAPS SOUNDINGS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 60S WITH KMCK REACHING 70 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY WINDS ALOFT WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WHICH BROUGH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS IN PLACES. THERE WAS
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH DID DIMINISH THE WINDS DESPITE THE DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT DROPPED INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS ATERNOON WHICH
LIMITED TEMPERATURE RISES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF SHERIDAN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY DEAL WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WHICH PLAYS A PART IN THE WIND...TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND ALSO BRING IN QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. THINKING THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL BURST OF WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN AFTER A BIT OF A LULL THEY WILL
INCREASE AFTER 12Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT MORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850-800MB DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS AT 850MB AT 35-45 KTS SHOULD BE A
WINDY DAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER THIN
BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING IT WILL ONLY LAST 3-4 HOURS AND WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING TOP
DOWN SATURATION AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. DON/T EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE MUCH WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS TO LEAD TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON GETTING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SO DID RAISE CHANCES TONIGHT.

INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULDN/T DECOUPLE IN MOST PLACES OR IF IT DOES IT
WILL BE BRIEFLY SO NOT ALLOWING MUCH TIME TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DROPS
IN TEMPERATURES. SECOND...HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
SURFACE INSULATED SO ANOTHER STRIKE AGAINST RADIATIONAL COOLING. AND
THIRD...WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EVEN AREAS THAT START
TO DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WON/T HAVE ALL NIGHT TO COOL SO WENT
UP A FEW DEGREES.

FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR 0C ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT WARMING IN
THE AFTERNOON SO FELT HIGHS AROUND 40 WERE A BIT TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
INDICATE SOME MEAGER LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER FROM 00Z TO 09Z SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WAS AN INITIAL CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER RAIN AND WILL KEEP PTYPES AS ALL SNOW.
ON MONDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
THE FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY WIDELY MONDAY WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO LOWER MID
40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THANKS TO A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...I DID INCLUDE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL WAA NOTED IN
THE MID LAYERS. AFTER LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
THIS MORNING HAD DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...PARTICULARLY IN RESPECT TO AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ITS LOCATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BEYOND DAY 7. THE LATEST
MODELS...IE. ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS FROM THIS MORNING NO LONGER HAVE
180 DEGREE DIFFERING SOLNS BEYOND DAY 7. HOWEVER...WITH THE NEWEST
RUNS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS HOLDS ONTO WARM AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
SURPRISE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR NORTH PLATTE WEDNESDAY RANGES FROM
A HIGH OF 59 IN THE MEX...TO 33 WITH THE ECE. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT HAS A RANGE IN HIGHS FROM 39 TO 60 WITH THE
MEAN AT 50. ATTM DECIDED TO INCORPORATE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A
BLEND OF THE MEAN MEN GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A HIGH
WEDNESDAY OF 49 FOR NORTH PLATTE. NO DOUBT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID RANGE PATTERN SORTS ITSELF OUT. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MUCH HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
SURGE OF COLD AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA BEYOND
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. AS FOR PCPN
CHANCES...MAINLY DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE AS FORCING
IS FAIRLY WEEK. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. SINCE FRONTAL TIMING IS UP IN THE
AIR ATTM...WILL KEEP ANY POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN WY WILL SWEEP THE FCST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MOST
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN THE VERY WARM AIR IN PLACE THIS EVENING.

SFC WINDS INCREASE TO 33025G35KT BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KOAX 222316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT AND RESULTANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL?...SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
FLURRIES/CHC LIGHT SNOW WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WINDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S WERE COMMON LOCALLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE
BANK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. EVEN 50S WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER THE STRATUS.

ONE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z AND IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...6.5-7 DEG C/KM WITH OMEGA INCREASING.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH AND THE SREF HAS A 5-10% PROB FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO...SO DID
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND CAN
FURTHER REFINE POPS AS NEEDED. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD ALL
RAIN...HOWEVER COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. ADDED FLURRIES AND ALSO COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR NOW
HAVE WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMPLICATED TAFS ESPECIALLY AT KLNK/KOMA AS
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY AT KOMA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. KOFK AGAIN REMAINS
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK BUT BELIEVE IT
WILL MAKE IT THERE BEFORE 06Z...BUT PROBABLY JUST MVFR. SECONDARY
CONCERN IS THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-14
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...
BY 11Z AT KOFK...AND 13-14Z AT KLNK/KOMA. COULD ALSO BE SOME
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 222316
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
516 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT AND RESULTANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL?...SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
FLURRIES/CHC LIGHT SNOW WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WINDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S WERE COMMON LOCALLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE
BANK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. EVEN 50S WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER THE STRATUS.

ONE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z AND IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...6.5-7 DEG C/KM WITH OMEGA INCREASING.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH AND THE SREF HAS A 5-10% PROB FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO...SO DID
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND CAN
FURTHER REFINE POPS AS NEEDED. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD ALL
RAIN...HOWEVER COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. ADDED FLURRIES AND ALSO COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR NOW
HAVE WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMPLICATED TAFS ESPECIALLY AT KLNK/KOMA AS
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE MAINLY AT KOMA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. KOFK AGAIN REMAINS
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK BUT BELIEVE IT
WILL MAKE IT THERE BEFORE 06Z...BUT PROBABLY JUST MVFR. SECONDARY
CONCERN IS THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-14
KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...
BY 11Z AT KOFK...AND 13-14Z AT KLNK/KOMA. COULD ALSO BE SOME
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KLBF 222151
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS. THE FIRST
WAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS WHICH WAS DRIVING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM CARRIED 40 AND 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN SHOWERS NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WAS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. THERE WERE SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM...ONE OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND
ANOTHER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST
SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z WITH SEVERAL
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRANCHING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW DOWN
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO IDAHO. LOCALLY...DEEP MIXING UP TO
750MB IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO LAPS SOUNDINGS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 60S WITH KMCK REACHING 70 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY WINDS ALOFT WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WHICH BROUGH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS IN PLACES. THERE WAS
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH DID DIMINISH THE WINDS DESPITE THE DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT DROPPED INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS ATERNOON WHICH
LIMITED TEMPERATURE RISES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF SHERIDAN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY DEAL WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WHICH PLAYS A PART IN THE WIND...TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND ALSO BRING IN QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. THINKING THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL BURST OF WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN AFTER A BIT OF A LULL THEY WILL
INCREASE AFTER 12Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT MORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850-800MB DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS AT 850MB AT 35-45 KTS SHOULD BE A
WINDY DAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER THIN
BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING IT WILL ONLY LAST 3-4 HOURS AND WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING TOP
DOWN SATURATION AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. DON/T EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE MUCH WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS TO LEAD TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON GETTING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SO DID RAISE CHANCES TONIGHT.

INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULDN/T DECOUPLE IN MOST PLACES OR IF IT DOES IT
WILL BE BRIEFLY SO NOT ALLOWING MUCH TIME TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DROPS
IN TEMPERATURES. SECOND...HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
SURFACE INSULATED SO ANOTHER STRIKE AGAINST RADIATIONAL COOLING. AND
THIRD...WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EVEN AREAS THAT START
TO DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WON/T HAVE ALL NIGHT TO COOL SO WENT
UP A FEW DEGREES.

FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR 0C ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT WARMING IN
THE AFTERNOON SO FELT HIGHS AROUND 40 WERE A BIT TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
INDICATE SOME MEAGER LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER FROM 00Z TO 09Z SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WAS AN INITIAL CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER RAIN AND WILL KEEP PTYPES AS ALL SNOW.
ON MONDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
THE FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY WIDELY MONDAY WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO LOWER MID
40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THANKS TO A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...I DID INCLUDE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL WAA NOTED IN
THE MID LAYERS. AFTER LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
THIS MORNING HAD DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...PARTICULARLY IN RESPECT TO AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ITS LOCATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BEYOND DAY 7. THE LATEST
MODELS...IE. ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS FROM THIS MORNING NO LONGER HAVE
180 DEGREE DIFFERING SOLNS BEYOND DAY 7. HOWEVER...WITH THE NEWEST
RUNS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS HOLDS ONTO WARM AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
SURPRISE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR NORTH PLATTE WEDNESDAY RANGES FROM
A HIGH OF 59 IN THE MEX...TO 33 WITH THE ECE. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT HAS A RANGE IN HIGHS FROM 39 TO 60 WITH THE
MEAN AT 50. ATTM DECIDED TO INCORPORATE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A
BLEND OF THE MEAN MEN GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A HIGH
WEDNESDAY OF 49 FOR NORTH PLATTE. NO DOUBT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID RANGE PATTERN SORTS ITSELF OUT. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MUCH HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
SURGE OF COLD AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA BEYOND
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. AS FOR PCPN
CHANCES...MAINLY DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE AS FORCING
IS FAIRLY WEEK. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. SINCE FRONTAL TIMING IS UP IN THE
AIR ATTM...WILL KEEP ANY POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY WITH GUSTS IN SOME
AREAS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH WINDS OF 20 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. FORECAST MODELS SHOW A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF TIME WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN LOWERED CEILINGS
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS LATER IN THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 222151
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS. THE FIRST
WAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS WHICH WAS DRIVING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM CARRIED 40 AND 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN SHOWERS NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
AND ILLINOIS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WAS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. THERE WERE SEVERAL EMBEDDED STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM...ONE OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND
ANOTHER AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE NORTHWEST
SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z WITH SEVERAL
FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRANCHING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW DOWN
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND INTO IDAHO. LOCALLY...DEEP MIXING UP TO
750MB IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO LAPS SOUNDINGS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE 60S WITH KMCK REACHING 70 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY WINDS ALOFT WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WHICH BROUGH PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS IN PLACES. THERE WAS
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH DID DIMINISH THE WINDS DESPITE THE DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT DROPPED INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS ATERNOON WHICH
LIMITED TEMPERATURE RISES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF SHERIDAN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY DEAL WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WHICH PLAYS A PART IN THE WIND...TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND ALSO BRING IN QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. THINKING THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL BURST OF WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN AFTER A BIT OF A LULL THEY WILL
INCREASE AFTER 12Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTS TO MIX A BIT MORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850-800MB DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS AT 850MB AT 35-45 KTS SHOULD BE A
WINDY DAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER THIN
BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
THINKING IT WILL ONLY LAST 3-4 HOURS AND WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING TOP
DOWN SATURATION AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. DON/T EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE MUCH WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS TO LEAD TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON GETTING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SO DID RAISE CHANCES TONIGHT.

INCREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FOR SEVERAL REASONS. FIRST...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULDN/T DECOUPLE IN MOST PLACES OR IF IT DOES IT
WILL BE BRIEFLY SO NOT ALLOWING MUCH TIME TO SEE SIGNIFICANT DROPS
IN TEMPERATURES. SECOND...HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
SURFACE INSULATED SO ANOTHER STRIKE AGAINST RADIATIONAL COOLING. AND
THIRD...WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EVEN AREAS THAT START
TO DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WON/T HAVE ALL NIGHT TO COOL SO WENT
UP A FEW DEGREES.

FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR 0C ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT WARMING IN
THE AFTERNOON SO FELT HIGHS AROUND 40 WERE A BIT TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MID RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE MID
RANGE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS TAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
INDICATE SOME MEAGER LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER FROM 00Z TO 09Z SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WAS AN INITIAL CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER RAIN AND WILL KEEP PTYPES AS ALL SNOW.
ON MONDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
THE FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY WIDELY MONDAY WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO LOWER MID
40S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THANKS TO A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...I DID INCLUDE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL WAA NOTED IN
THE MID LAYERS. AFTER LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
THIS MORNING HAD DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...PARTICULARLY IN RESPECT TO AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ITS LOCATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BEYOND DAY 7. THE LATEST
MODELS...IE. ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS FROM THIS MORNING NO LONGER HAVE
180 DEGREE DIFFERING SOLNS BEYOND DAY 7. HOWEVER...WITH THE NEWEST
RUNS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MOST PRONOUNCED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
GFS HOLDS ONTO WARM AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
SURPRISE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR NORTH PLATTE WEDNESDAY RANGES FROM
A HIGH OF 59 IN THE MEX...TO 33 WITH THE ECE. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT HAS A RANGE IN HIGHS FROM 39 TO 60 WITH THE
MEAN AT 50. ATTM DECIDED TO INCORPORATE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A
BLEND OF THE MEAN MEN GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT. THIS YIELDED A HIGH
WEDNESDAY OF 49 FOR NORTH PLATTE. NO DOUBT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MID RANGE PATTERN SORTS ITSELF OUT. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MUCH HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC
SURGE OF COLD AIR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 30S. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA BEYOND
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. AS FOR PCPN
CHANCES...MAINLY DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE AS FORCING
IS FAIRLY WEEK. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. SINCE FRONTAL TIMING IS UP IN THE
AIR ATTM...WILL KEEP ANY POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY WITH GUSTS IN SOME
AREAS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH WINDS OF 20 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. FORECAST MODELS SHOW A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF TIME WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN LOWERED CEILINGS
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS LATER IN THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...BROOKS






000
FXUS63 KOAX 222141
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
341 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT AND RESULTANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL?...SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
FLURRIES/CHC LIGHT SNOW WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WINDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S WERE COMMON LOCALLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE
BANK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. EVEN 50S WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER THE STRATUS.

ONE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z AND IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...6.5-7 DEG C/KM WITH OMEGA INCREASING.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH AND THE SREF HAS A 5-10% PROB FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO...SO DID
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND CAN
FURTHER REFINE POPS AS NEEDED. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD ALL
RAIN...HOWEVER COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. ADDED FLURRIES AND ALSO COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR NOW
HAVE WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 18Z. KOFK FINALLY WENT VFR WHILE KOMA AND KLNK STILL IN
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SATELLITE SHOWING SIGNS OF STRATUS DECK
ERODING SLOWLY SO EXPECT KOMA AND KLNK TO GO VFR AROUND 21Z. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP
AFTER 00Z. COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 222141
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
341 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT AND RESULTANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL?...SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
FLURRIES/CHC LIGHT SNOW WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH WINDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S WERE COMMON LOCALLY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE
BANK OF STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S. EVEN 50S WERE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA UNDER THE STRATUS.

ONE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM...IT WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE...LIGHT RAIN AND SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WINDSHIFT/COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z AND IS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...6.5-7 DEG C/KM WITH OMEGA INCREASING.
SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH AND THE SREF HAS A 5-10% PROB FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS DO SHOW A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER IDAHO...SO DID
INCREASE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND CAN
FURTHER REFINE POPS AS NEEDED. MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD ALL
RAIN...HOWEVER COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND IT. ADDED FLURRIES AND ALSO COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE 30S. FOR NOW
HAVE WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW CLIPPING THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS FOR FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFF SOMEWHAT FOR SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 18Z. KOFK FINALLY WENT VFR WHILE KOMA AND KLNK STILL IN
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SATELLITE SHOWING SIGNS OF STRATUS DECK
ERODING SLOWLY SO EXPECT KOMA AND KLNK TO GO VFR AROUND 21Z. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP
AFTER 00Z. COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MEYER



000
FXUS63 KGID 222033
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
233 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

OUR MILD DAY TODAY WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
UNDERGOES CHANGES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A FAIRLY ZONAL REGIME TODAY
HAS RESULTED IN GOOD WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  TEMPS HAVE SURPASSED EXPECTATIONS AS STRATUS
ERODED AND READINGS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.  THE AREA
OF STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ON THE
ORDER OF 150 PCNT OF NORMAL...RESIDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTN.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN JET NOSES SE FM THE PACIFIC NW THRU THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...CARVING A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE
LLVL MOISTURE/STRATUS MIGRATES TO THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.  HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CLOUDS GET WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SFC COLD FRONT WHICH ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING...AREAS
OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE STRATUS AREA AND
A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE WENT WITH
POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW ONE MILE FOR NOW AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. LIFT OVER THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLVL JET MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO
WORRIES ABOUT FREEZING PCPN TONIGHT.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SUNDAY DAYTIME PERIOD WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PCPN TO DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE PLAINS.  PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS POINT TO HIGH CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT TO UNFOLD ON SUNDAY.  HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY....BUT COULD SEE POPS BEING RAISED FURTHER IF
TRENDS CONTINUE.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS
RAIN BUT WITH CAA IN THE AFTN...WE ARE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AROUND MID DAY OR VERY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS TEMPS COOL WE COULD SEE A FEW AREAS MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COUNTIES. ONCE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE
EAST BY EVENING...PCPN WILL RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALSO...PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AVERAGE 1 TO 3 MB AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE
AFTN HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
MONDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO ALTHOUGH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL LIKELY BE NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE NOTED BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE EC...THAT A
THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A
~125KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH OMEGA
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER OR NEAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE THEN
SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS...THAT A
THERMALLY-DIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A
~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT SAID...TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE DOES APPEAR
SOMEWHAT LACKING LATER THIS WEEK...PER PROXIMITY SOUNDING DATA FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...AND GIVEN THE DISPARITIES BETWEEN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...OPTED TO LEAVE THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTRODUCTION OF A SOMEWHAT WARMER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER
BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SHOULD THEN ALLOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE AREA...THUS ALLOWING
FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 30 AND 40S TO FINISH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE TEENS AND 20S DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THRU THE EVENING...THEN THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING THEREAFTER. LATE IN THE EVENING
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS AND THE STRATUS MAY MIGRATE TOWARD/INTO THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. IF STRATUS CAN MAKE IT...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN AROUND 12Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
INCREASING WITH FROPA. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF PCPN DEVELOPING AND INCLUDED A R/S MIX.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 221819
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1219 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL THIS MORNING AS READINGS AROUND THE AREA
ARE ALREADY IN THE 50S AND 60S. THIS IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO STRONG
WARMING JUST OFF THE SURFACE ACCORDING TO THE 12Z KLBF SOUNDING
FROM THIS MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY MIXED OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH CAN NOT ONLY BE SEEN FROM THE
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE WINDS AS STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30KTS ARE
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. UPDATED HIGHS IN SOME AREAS A FEW DEGREES
TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT THE FORECAST HIGH FOR THE
DAY AND BELIEVE WITH SUNSHINE WILL BE ABLE TO RISE ANOTHER FEW
DEGREES.

ALSO MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. KIML IS NOW REPORTING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN TO 15 PERCENT WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WILL KEEP WATCH TO SEE IF HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOME MIFG EARLY THIS MORNING AT KLBF COMING OFF THE OPEN WATER NEAR
THE ASOS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST AS IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT IS
COVERED IN THE TAF FOR KLBF. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR
TERM. MODELS STILL UNDER DOING TEMPERATURES BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY.
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. 850MB TEMPERATURES
SOAR TO 12C+ OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE GUIDANCE 3F TO 4F OVER ALL OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM 53 AT ONEILL TO 67 AT IMPERIAL. TEMPERATURES SOUTH MAY HAVE TO
BE BUMPED UP EVEN MORE THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE DRY SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF FROPA TONIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING AFTER 23/00Z. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE
WITH CAA AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND DIG SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...SENDING A FRONT THROUGH
THROUGH STATE. GFS SHOWS LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS IS 75
TO 100 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING SUNDAY MORNING
POPS AT THIS TIME. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY...SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE TONIGHT CAME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...NUDGED MAX T DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG CAA...H85 TEMPS
DROP FROM -10C IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO 0 TO -2C IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS
FROM FALLING OFF...AND KEPT LOW TO MID 20S IN THE GRIDS. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AFTER 18Z SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER SUNDOWN. LIFT IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE AND NOT
VERY DEEP...PWATS BELOW CLIMO...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS. BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR THE SD
BORDER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ONLY UPPER 20S/LOW 30S EXPECTED. KEPT
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR MONDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD DIE OFF BY SUNSET AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ON TUESDAY... WITH A STRENGTHENING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES THE CWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A 150KT 300MB JET NOSES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLAINS.
FAVORABLE JET CIRCULATION AND BEST SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
HOWEVER...WE CAN BE CONFIDENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BRINGING COLDER AIR
TO THE CWA AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ANY
WINTRY WEATHER AROUND THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD CAUSE
A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY WITH GUSTS IN SOME
AREAS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST...WITH WINDS OF 20 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. FORECAST MODELS SHOW A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF TIME WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN LOWERED CEILINGS
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS LATER IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KGID 221743
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1143 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM.
VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING THIS MORNING WITH INSOLATION...AND AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. LOOK FOR THE STRATUS TO ERODE AND VSBYS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 723 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE VSBYS ARE THE LOWEST...AROUND ONE
QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF LIGHT ICING WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND EVEN A LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE FOG AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY ALONG HWY 81 AND OVER OUR
OTHER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS LARGELY KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN OUR EAST UP OVERNIGHT TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. THE CLOUDS CLEARED FOR AT LEAST A TIME ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281 ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AND
CONCERN FOR A PROBLEM IS WHERE WE CLEARED...HAD THE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THEN HAD CLOUDS AND A LIGHT MIST MOVE
BACK IN. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A LIGHT ICY FILM MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE FREEZING FOG. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
EXISTS FROM HASTINGS AND CLAY CENTER...TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG AREA. SO FAR THE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY TO SLOWLY RISEN AS THE THICKER CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIST
MOVED BACK IN. HOWEVER...ANY FOG/MIST RELATED ICING IS STILL OUR
PRIMARY CONCERN TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS MORNING. SEVERAL PHONE CALLS
TO AREA COUNTIES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT AS OF 4 AM ANY DENSE FOG WAS
RATHER LOCALIZED AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE FOG MAY THICKEN AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE NEAR SUNRISE...RESULTING THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY...OVERALL MOST FORECAST MODELS EVENTUALLY DISPERSE THE FOG
AND PUSH THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE QUICKER WE CLEAR OUT THE WARMER WE
WILL GET TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER...POSSIBLY NOT
LONG AFTER SUNRISE...WHILE EASTERN AREAS MAY BE SOCKED IN THE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME.
EVEN EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON
TO HELP LIFT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS TRY TO PUSH BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

PATTERN: THE BITTER COLD HAS BACKED OFF BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF SERIOUS
COLD THIS WEEK. IT IS LOOKING MILDER AS WE HEAD INTO DEC...BUT STILL
SEE NO DECENT PRECIP EVENTS IN THE OFFING IN THIS PREDOMINANT NW
FLOW/ZONAL FLOW.

ALOFT: REAMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS
OVER THE CNTRL USA SUN WILL CARVE OUT A NEW LONGWAVE TROF. THE NRN
ROCKIES TROF WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN EVE. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN ITS
WAKE THRU THXGVG DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RACE THRU HERE
TUE NIGHT. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER ANOTHER BLAST OF BITTER COLD.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE E PAC AMONG THE LAST 2
RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS BEGINNING AND THIS HAS FCST IMPLICATIONS HERE
PERTAINING TO HOW LONG ARCTIC AIR REMAINS. IF A CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OFF THE COAST...THEN THE WRN USA RIDGE WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND THE
COLD WILL HANG ON LONGER THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF IT OPENS UP
AND TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE...THEN THE RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED E THU-FRI.
A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL THEN ARRIVE HERE SAT. THE 00Z GFS IRONICALLY
IS THE COLDER SCENARIO...BUT THE 18Z RUN IS IN THE EC CAMP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU AT DAYBREAK SUN AND
DEEP LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN MON. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL DIVE
SE TUE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THXGVG DAY. THIS HIGH WILL CONT INTO
THE SE USA FRI-SAT WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS TRACKING E THRU SRN
CANADA. ONE OF THESE COULD SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE SAT.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THRU TUE AND HIGH WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
MID-WEEK...BUT THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: AM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION /CAA/. BECOMING WINDY.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND WHILE THE FCST IS ESSENTIALLY DRY...BELIEVE WE
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A BRIEF SHWR OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE NAM AS WELL AS THE SIGNALS ALOFT SUGGEST A
NARROW LINE COULD DEVELOP.

NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40-45 MPH ALONG AND W OF HWY 281. NOT
BUYING THE NAM WINDS. ITS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED TO
INACCURATE LEFTOVER SNOW COVER.

SUN NIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES PRIMARILY N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES. EXPECT ANOTHER BURST OF WIND IN RENEWED CAA. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OF 50 MPH SOMEWHERE N OF I-80.

MON: ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES DEPART WITH ANOTHER BLUSTERY/CHILLY DAY
THOUGH NOT OF THE BITTER COLD FLAVOR WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. NW WINDS
WILL GUST 40-45 MPH.

TUE: INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. WE MAY NOT BE
CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.

WED: CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE 00Z/GFS LOOKS WAY TOO
WARM WITH ITS FLATTER LESS-AMPLIFIED LOOK ALOFT.

THXGVG DAY: WE ARE PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH. THERE IS ROOM TO THE
DOWNSIDE. WATCH FOR FUTURE FCSTS TO TURN COLDER. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GFS/EC/GEM OFFER HIGHS 20-27F ALONG AND N OF HWY 6.

FRI: DRY. NOT AS COLD.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON A MAJOR MULTI-
DAY DUMP OF COLD AIR HERE BEGINNING THXGVG DAY. IT STILL HAS IT FOR
THE HOLIDAY...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS DURATION.

THEREAFTER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING PERSISTENT SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPS IS COMING IN EARLY DEC. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ENTERING PHASE 3 AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PHASE 4.
THIS IS NOT THE ONLY INPUT INTO THE PATTERN...SO NO GUARANTEES ON
THIS...BUT PHASES 3-4 ARE CORRELATED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND YESTERDAY`S CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS IT.

THE MAJOR PROBLEM IS THE DRYNESS. NW FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP HERE. SO EXPECT WE WILL TRANSITION
FROM COLD AND DRY TO MILD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THRU THE EVENING...THEN THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING THEREAFTER. LATE IN THE EVENING
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS AND THE STRATUS MAY MIGRATE TOWARD/INTO THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. IF STRATUS CAN MAKE IT...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN AROUND 12Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
INCREASING WITH FROPA. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF PCPN DEVELOPING AND INCLUDED A R/S MIX.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY



000
FXUS63 KOAX 221738
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH A COLD FRONT SLAMMING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD...THEN COLDER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW BEHIND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SHALLOW TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE IN TO A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO TURN SURFACE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERING MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST BY MOST MODEL OUTPUT TO SCOUR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER MODELS TEND TO HAVE A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORECAST WINDS
WILL PARALLEL BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS LEADING TO SLOWER EROSION. THUS AM
NOT CONVINCED CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ALL THE WAY TO EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EVEN WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST.

AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...A MORE PRONOUNCED
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WHERE LAYER
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 30S AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 10C FROM 12Z TO 00Z.
THUS MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH...WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CORE
OF ASSOCIATED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL AND MAINLY DRY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PRONE TO REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR. ONE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED BY
GFS/ECMWF DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. THANKSGIVING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LEADING
TO LIMITED MIXING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 18Z. KOFK FINALLY WENT VFR WHILE KOMA AND KLNK STILL IN
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SATELLITE SHOWING SIGNS OF STRATUS DECK
ERODING SLOWLY SO EXPECT KOMA AND KLNK TO GO VFR AROUND 21Z. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP
AFTER 00Z. COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MEYER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 221738
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH A COLD FRONT SLAMMING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD...THEN COLDER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW BEHIND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SHALLOW TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE IN TO A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO TURN SURFACE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERING MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST BY MOST MODEL OUTPUT TO SCOUR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER MODELS TEND TO HAVE A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORECAST WINDS
WILL PARALLEL BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS LEADING TO SLOWER EROSION. THUS AM
NOT CONVINCED CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ALL THE WAY TO EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EVEN WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST.

AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...A MORE PRONOUNCED
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WHERE LAYER
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 30S AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 10C FROM 12Z TO 00Z.
THUS MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH...WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CORE
OF ASSOCIATED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL AND MAINLY DRY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PRONE TO REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR. ONE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED BY
GFS/ECMWF DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. THANKSGIVING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LEADING
TO LIMITED MIXING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS OF 18Z. KOFK FINALLY WENT VFR WHILE KOMA AND KLNK STILL IN
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SATELLITE SHOWING SIGNS OF STRATUS DECK
ERODING SLOWLY SO EXPECT KOMA AND KLNK TO GO VFR AROUND 21Z. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP
AFTER 00Z. COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MEYER



000
FXUS63 KGID 221504
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
904 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM.
VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING THIS MORNING WITH INSOLATION...AND AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. LOOK FOR THE STRATUS TO ERODE AND VSBYS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 723 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE VSBYS ARE THE LOWEST...AROUND ONE
QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF LIGHT ICING WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND EVEN A LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE FOG AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY ALONG HWY 81 AND OVER OUR
OTHER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS LARGELY KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN OUR EAST UP OVERNIGHT TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. THE CLOUDS CLEARED FOR AT LEAST A TIME ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281 ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AND
CONCERN FOR A PROBLEM IS WHERE WE CLEARED...HAD THE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THEN HAD CLOUDS AND A LIGHT MIST MOVE
BACK IN. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A LIGHT ICY FILM MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE FREEZING FOG. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
EXISTS FROM HASTINGS AND CLAY CENTER...TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG AREA. SO FAR THE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY TO SLOWLY RISEN AS THE THICKER CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIST
MOVED BACK IN. HOWEVER...ANY FOG/MIST RELATED ICING IS STILL OUR
PRIMARY CONCERN TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS MORNING. SEVERAL PHONE CALLS
TO AREA COUNTIES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT AS OF 4 AM ANY DENSE FOG WAS
RATHER LOCALIZED AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE FOG MAY THICKEN AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE NEAR SUNRISE...RESULTING THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY...OVERALL MOST FORECAST MODELS EVENTUALLY DISPERSE THE FOG
AND PUSH THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE QUICKER WE CLEAR OUT THE WARMER WE
WILL GET TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER...POSSIBLY NOT
LONG AFTER SUNRISE...WHILE EASTERN AREAS MAY BE SOCKED IN THE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME.
EVEN EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON
TO HELP LIFT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS TRY TO PUSH BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

PATTERN: THE BITTER COLD HAS BACKED OFF BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF SERIOUS
COLD THIS WEEK. IT IS LOOKING MILDER AS WE HEAD INTO DEC...BUT STILL
SEE NO DECENT PRECIP EVENTS IN THE OFFING IN THIS PREDOMINANT NW
FLOW/ZONAL FLOW.

ALOFT: REAMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS
OVER THE CNTRL USA SUN WILL CARVE OUT A NEW LONGWAVE TROF. THE NRN
ROCKIES TROF WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN EVE. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN ITS
WAKE THRU THXGVG DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RACE THRU HERE
TUE NIGHT. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER ANOTHER BLAST OF BITTER COLD.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE E PAC AMONG THE LAST 2
RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS BEGINNING AND THIS HAS FCST IMPLICATIONS HERE
PERTAINING TO HOW LONG ARCTIC AIR REMAINS. IF A CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OFF THE COAST...THEN THE WRN USA RIDGE WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND THE
COLD WILL HANG ON LONGER THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF IT OPENS UP
AND TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE...THEN THE RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED E THU-FRI.
A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL THEN ARRIVE HERE SAT. THE 00Z GFS IRONICALLY
IS THE COLDER SCENARIO...BUT THE 18Z RUN IS IN THE EC CAMP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU AT DAYBREAK SUN AND
DEEP LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN MON. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL DIVE
SE TUE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THXGVG DAY. THIS HIGH WILL CONT INTO
THE SE USA FRI-SAT WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS TRACKING E THRU SRN
CANADA. ONE OF THESE COULD SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE SAT.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THRU TUE AND HIGH WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
MID-WEEK...BUT THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: AM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION /CAA/. BECOMING WINDY.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND WHILE THE FCST IS ESSENTIALLY DRY...BELIEVE WE
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A BRIEF SHWR OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE NAM AS WELL AS THE SIGNALS ALOFT SUGGEST A
NARROW LINE COULD DEVELOP.

NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40-45 MPH ALONG AND W OF HWY 281. NOT
BUYING THE NAM WINDS. ITS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED TO
INACCURATE LEFTOVER SNOW COVER.

SUN NIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES PRIMARILY N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES. EXPECT ANOTHER BURST OF WIND IN RENEWED CAA. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OF 50 MPH SOMEWHERE N OF I-80.

MON: ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES DEPART WITH ANOTHER BLUSTERY/CHILLY DAY
THOUGH NOT OF THE BITTER COLD FLAVOR WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. NW WINDS
WILL GUST 40-45 MPH.

TUE: INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. WE MAY NOT BE
CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.

WED: CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE 00Z/GFS LOOKS WAY TOO
WARM WITH ITS FLATTER LESS-AMPLIFIED LOOK ALOFT.

THXGVG DAY: WE ARE PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH. THERE IS ROOM TO THE
DOWNSIDE. WATCH FOR FUTURE FCSTS TO TURN COLDER. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GFS/EC/GEM OFFER HIGHS 20-27F ALONG AND N OF HWY 6.

FRI: DRY. NOT AS COLD.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON A MAJOR MULTI-
DAY DUMP OF COLD AIR HERE BEGINNING THXGVG DAY. IT STILL HAS IT FOR
THE HOLIDAY...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS DURATION.

THEREAFTER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING PERSISTENT SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPS IS COMING IN EARLY DEC. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ENTERING PHASE 3 AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PHASE 4.
THIS IS NOT THE ONLY INPUT INTO THE PATTERN...SO NO GUARANTEES ON
THIS...BUT PHASES 3-4 ARE CORRELATED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND YESTERDAY`S CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS IT.

THE MAJOR PROBLEM IS THE DRYNESS. NW FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP HERE. SO EXPECT WE WILL TRANSITION
FROM COLD AND DRY TO MILD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE AVIATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOADED WITH CHALLENGES IN
THE SHORT TERM DUE TO A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING
AROUND BETWEEN KGRI AND KEAR. KGRI BRIEFLY CLEARED OUT...BUT AS OF
530 AM WAS SOCKED IN UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN WHILE KEAR WAS
FREE OF THE CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL 530 AM WHEN THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD BACKED WEST INTO KEAR. THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE AREA UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AND THEN EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...KGRI HAS BEEN
DEALING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG AND LIGHT MIST. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE WIND WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UNTIL
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH JUST PRIOR TO DAWN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM GRAND ISLAND EAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 221504
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
904 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM.
VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING THIS MORNING WITH INSOLATION...AND AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. LOOK FOR THE STRATUS TO ERODE AND VSBYS
TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 723 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE VSBYS ARE THE LOWEST...AROUND ONE
QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF LIGHT ICING WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND EVEN A LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE FOG AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY ALONG HWY 81 AND OVER OUR
OTHER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS LARGELY KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN OUR EAST UP OVERNIGHT TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. THE CLOUDS CLEARED FOR AT LEAST A TIME ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281 ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AND
CONCERN FOR A PROBLEM IS WHERE WE CLEARED...HAD THE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THEN HAD CLOUDS AND A LIGHT MIST MOVE
BACK IN. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A LIGHT ICY FILM MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE FREEZING FOG. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
EXISTS FROM HASTINGS AND CLAY CENTER...TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG AREA. SO FAR THE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY TO SLOWLY RISEN AS THE THICKER CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIST
MOVED BACK IN. HOWEVER...ANY FOG/MIST RELATED ICING IS STILL OUR
PRIMARY CONCERN TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS MORNING. SEVERAL PHONE CALLS
TO AREA COUNTIES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT AS OF 4 AM ANY DENSE FOG WAS
RATHER LOCALIZED AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE FOG MAY THICKEN AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE NEAR SUNRISE...RESULTING THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY...OVERALL MOST FORECAST MODELS EVENTUALLY DISPERSE THE FOG
AND PUSH THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE QUICKER WE CLEAR OUT THE WARMER WE
WILL GET TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER...POSSIBLY NOT
LONG AFTER SUNRISE...WHILE EASTERN AREAS MAY BE SOCKED IN THE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME.
EVEN EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON
TO HELP LIFT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS TRY TO PUSH BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

PATTERN: THE BITTER COLD HAS BACKED OFF BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF SERIOUS
COLD THIS WEEK. IT IS LOOKING MILDER AS WE HEAD INTO DEC...BUT STILL
SEE NO DECENT PRECIP EVENTS IN THE OFFING IN THIS PREDOMINANT NW
FLOW/ZONAL FLOW.

ALOFT: REAMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS
OVER THE CNTRL USA SUN WILL CARVE OUT A NEW LONGWAVE TROF. THE NRN
ROCKIES TROF WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN EVE. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN ITS
WAKE THRU THXGVG DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RACE THRU HERE
TUE NIGHT. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER ANOTHER BLAST OF BITTER COLD.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE E PAC AMONG THE LAST 2
RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS BEGINNING AND THIS HAS FCST IMPLICATIONS HERE
PERTAINING TO HOW LONG ARCTIC AIR REMAINS. IF A CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OFF THE COAST...THEN THE WRN USA RIDGE WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND THE
COLD WILL HANG ON LONGER THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF IT OPENS UP
AND TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE...THEN THE RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED E THU-FRI.
A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL THEN ARRIVE HERE SAT. THE 00Z GFS IRONICALLY
IS THE COLDER SCENARIO...BUT THE 18Z RUN IS IN THE EC CAMP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU AT DAYBREAK SUN AND
DEEP LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN MON. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL DIVE
SE TUE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THXGVG DAY. THIS HIGH WILL CONT INTO
THE SE USA FRI-SAT WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS TRACKING E THRU SRN
CANADA. ONE OF THESE COULD SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE SAT.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THRU TUE AND HIGH WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
MID-WEEK...BUT THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: AM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION /CAA/. BECOMING WINDY.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND WHILE THE FCST IS ESSENTIALLY DRY...BELIEVE WE
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A BRIEF SHWR OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE NAM AS WELL AS THE SIGNALS ALOFT SUGGEST A
NARROW LINE COULD DEVELOP.

NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40-45 MPH ALONG AND W OF HWY 281. NOT
BUYING THE NAM WINDS. ITS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED TO
INACCURATE LEFTOVER SNOW COVER.

SUN NIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES PRIMARILY N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES. EXPECT ANOTHER BURST OF WIND IN RENEWED CAA. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OF 50 MPH SOMEWHERE N OF I-80.

MON: ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES DEPART WITH ANOTHER BLUSTERY/CHILLY DAY
THOUGH NOT OF THE BITTER COLD FLAVOR WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. NW WINDS
WILL GUST 40-45 MPH.

TUE: INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. WE MAY NOT BE
CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.

WED: CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE 00Z/GFS LOOKS WAY TOO
WARM WITH ITS FLATTER LESS-AMPLIFIED LOOK ALOFT.

THXGVG DAY: WE ARE PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH. THERE IS ROOM TO THE
DOWNSIDE. WATCH FOR FUTURE FCSTS TO TURN COLDER. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GFS/EC/GEM OFFER HIGHS 20-27F ALONG AND N OF HWY 6.

FRI: DRY. NOT AS COLD.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON A MAJOR MULTI-
DAY DUMP OF COLD AIR HERE BEGINNING THXGVG DAY. IT STILL HAS IT FOR
THE HOLIDAY...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS DURATION.

THEREAFTER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING PERSISTENT SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPS IS COMING IN EARLY DEC. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ENTERING PHASE 3 AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PHASE 4.
THIS IS NOT THE ONLY INPUT INTO THE PATTERN...SO NO GUARANTEES ON
THIS...BUT PHASES 3-4 ARE CORRELATED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND YESTERDAY`S CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS IT.

THE MAJOR PROBLEM IS THE DRYNESS. NW FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP HERE. SO EXPECT WE WILL TRANSITION
FROM COLD AND DRY TO MILD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE AVIATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOADED WITH CHALLENGES IN
THE SHORT TERM DUE TO A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING
AROUND BETWEEN KGRI AND KEAR. KGRI BRIEFLY CLEARED OUT...BUT AS OF
530 AM WAS SOCKED IN UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN WHILE KEAR WAS
FREE OF THE CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL 530 AM WHEN THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD BACKED WEST INTO KEAR. THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE AREA UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AND THEN EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...KGRI HAS BEEN
DEALING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG AND LIGHT MIST. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE WIND WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UNTIL
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH JUST PRIOR TO DAWN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM GRAND ISLAND EAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 221324
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
724 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE VSBYS ARE THE LOWEST...AROUND ONE
QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF LIGHT ICING WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND EVEN A LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE FOG AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY ALONG HWY 81 AND OVER OUR
OTHER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS LARGELY KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN OUR EAST UP OVERNIGHT TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. THE CLOUDS CLEARED FOR AT LEAST A TIME ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281 ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AND
CONCERN FOR A PROBLEM IS WHERE WE CLEARED...HAD THE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THEN HAD CLOUDS AND A LIGHT MIST MOVE
BACK IN. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A LIGHT ICY FILM MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE FREEZING FOG. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
EXISTS FROM HASTINGS AND CLAY CENTER...TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG AREA. SO FAR THE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY TO SLOWLY RISEN AS THE THICKER CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIST
MOVED BACK IN. HOWEVER...ANY FOG/MIST RELATED ICING IS STILL OUR
PRIMARY CONCERN TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS MORNING. SEVERAL PHONE CALLS
TO AREA COUNTIES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT AS OF 4 AM ANY DENSE FOG WAS
RATHER LOCALIZED AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE FOG MAY THICKEN AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE NEAR SUNRISE...RESULTING THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY...OVERALL MOST FORECAST MODELS EVENTUALLY DISPERSE THE FOG
AND PUSH THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE QUICKER WE CLEAR OUT THE WARMER WE
WILL GET TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER...POSSIBLY NOT
LONG AFTER SUNRISE...WHILE EASTERN AREAS MAY BE SOCKED IN THE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME.
EVEN EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON
TO HELP LIFT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS TRY TO PUSH BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

PATTERN: THE BITTER COLD HAS BACKED OFF BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF SERIOUS
COLD THIS WEEK. IT IS LOOKING MILDER AS WE HEAD INTO DEC...BUT STILL
SEE NO DECENT PRECIP EVENTS IN THE OFFING IN THIS PREDOMINANT NW
FLOW/ZONAL FLOW.

ALOFT: REAMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS
OVER THE CNTRL USA SUN WILL CARVE OUT A NEW LONGWAVE TROF. THE NRN
ROCKIES TROF WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN EVE. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN ITS
WAKE THRU THXGVG DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RACE THRU HERE
TUE NIGHT. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER ANOTHER BLAST OF BITTER COLD.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE E PAC AMONG THE LAST 2
RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS BEGINNING AND THIS HAS FCST IMPLICATIONS HERE
PERTAINING TO HOW LONG ARCTIC AIR REMAINS. IF A CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OFF THE COAST...THEN THE WRN USA RIDGE WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND THE
COLD WILL HANG ON LONGER THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF IT OPENS UP
AND TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE...THEN THE RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED E THU-FRI.
A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL THEN ARRIVE HERE SAT. THE 00Z GFS IRONICALLY
IS THE COLDER SCENARIO...BUT THE 18Z RUN IS IN THE EC CAMP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU AT DAYBREAK SUN AND
DEEP LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN MON. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL DIVE
SE TUE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THXGVG DAY. THIS HIGH WILL CONT INTO
THE SE USA FRI-SAT WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS TRACKING E THRU SRN
CANADA. ONE OF THESE COULD SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE SAT.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THRU TUE AND HIGH WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
MID-WEEK...BUT THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: AM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION /CAA/. BECOMING WINDY.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND WHILE THE FCST IS ESSENTIALLY DRY...BELIEVE WE
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A BRIEF SHWR OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE NAM AS WELL AS THE SIGNALS ALOFT SUGGEST A
NARROW LINE COULD DEVELOP.

NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40-45 MPH ALONG AND W OF HWY 281. NOT
BUYING THE NAM WINDS. ITS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED TO
INACCURATE LEFTOVER SNOW COVER.

SUN NIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES PRIMARILY N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES. EXPECT ANOTHER BURST OF WIND IN RENEWED CAA. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OF 50 MPH SOMEWHERE N OF I-80.

MON: ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES DEPART WITH ANOTHER BLUSTERY/CHILLY DAY
THOUGH NOT OF THE BITTER COLD FLAVOR WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. NW WINDS
WILL GUST 40-45 MPH.

TUE: INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. WE MAY NOT BE
CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.

WED: CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE 00Z/GFS LOOKS WAY TOO
WARM WITH ITS FLATTER LESS-AMPLIFIED LOOK ALOFT.

THXGVG DAY: WE ARE PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH. THERE IS ROOM TO THE
DOWNSIDE. WATCH FOR FUTURE FCSTS TO TURN COLDER. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GFS/EC/GEM OFFER HIGHS 20-27F ALONG AND N OF HWY 6.

FRI: DRY. NOT AS COLD.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON A MAJOR MULTI-
DAY DUMP OF COLD AIR HERE BEGINNING THXGVG DAY. IT STILL HAS IT FOR
THE HOLIDAY...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS DURATION.

THEREAFTER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING PERSISTENT SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPS IS COMING IN EARLY DEC. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ENTERING PHASE 3 AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PHASE 4.
THIS IS NOT THE ONLY INPUT INTO THE PATTERN...SO NO GUARANTEES ON
THIS...BUT PHASES 3-4 ARE CORRELATED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND YESTERDAY`S CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS IT.

THE MAJOR PROBLEM IS THE DRYNESS. NW FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP HERE. SO EXPECT WE WILL TRANSITION
FROM COLD AND DRY TO MILD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE AVIATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOADED WITH CHALLENGES IN
THE SHORT TERM DUE TO A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING
AROUND BETWEEN KGRI AND KEAR. KGRI BRIEFLY CLEARED OUT...BUT AS OF
530 AM WAS SOCKED IN UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN WHILE KEAR WAS
FREE OF THE CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL 530 AM WHEN THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD BACKED WEST INTO KEAR. THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE AREA UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AND THEN EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...KGRI HAS BEEN
DEALING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG AND LIGHT MIST. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE WIND WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UNTIL
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH JUST PRIOR TO DAWN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM GRAND ISLAND EAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 221324
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
724 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE VSBYS ARE THE LOWEST...AROUND ONE
QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF LIGHT ICING WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND EVEN A LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE FOG AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY ALONG HWY 81 AND OVER OUR
OTHER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS LARGELY KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN OUR EAST UP OVERNIGHT TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. THE CLOUDS CLEARED FOR AT LEAST A TIME ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281 ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AND
CONCERN FOR A PROBLEM IS WHERE WE CLEARED...HAD THE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THEN HAD CLOUDS AND A LIGHT MIST MOVE
BACK IN. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A LIGHT ICY FILM MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE FREEZING FOG. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
EXISTS FROM HASTINGS AND CLAY CENTER...TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG AREA. SO FAR THE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY TO SLOWLY RISEN AS THE THICKER CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIST
MOVED BACK IN. HOWEVER...ANY FOG/MIST RELATED ICING IS STILL OUR
PRIMARY CONCERN TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS MORNING. SEVERAL PHONE CALLS
TO AREA COUNTIES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT AS OF 4 AM ANY DENSE FOG WAS
RATHER LOCALIZED AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE FOG MAY THICKEN AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE NEAR SUNRISE...RESULTING THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY...OVERALL MOST FORECAST MODELS EVENTUALLY DISPERSE THE FOG
AND PUSH THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE QUICKER WE CLEAR OUT THE WARMER WE
WILL GET TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER...POSSIBLY NOT
LONG AFTER SUNRISE...WHILE EASTERN AREAS MAY BE SOCKED IN THE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME.
EVEN EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON
TO HELP LIFT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS TRY TO PUSH BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

PATTERN: THE BITTER COLD HAS BACKED OFF BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF SERIOUS
COLD THIS WEEK. IT IS LOOKING MILDER AS WE HEAD INTO DEC...BUT STILL
SEE NO DECENT PRECIP EVENTS IN THE OFFING IN THIS PREDOMINANT NW
FLOW/ZONAL FLOW.

ALOFT: REAMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS
OVER THE CNTRL USA SUN WILL CARVE OUT A NEW LONGWAVE TROF. THE NRN
ROCKIES TROF WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN EVE. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN ITS
WAKE THRU THXGVG DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RACE THRU HERE
TUE NIGHT. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER ANOTHER BLAST OF BITTER COLD.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE E PAC AMONG THE LAST 2
RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS BEGINNING AND THIS HAS FCST IMPLICATIONS HERE
PERTAINING TO HOW LONG ARCTIC AIR REMAINS. IF A CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OFF THE COAST...THEN THE WRN USA RIDGE WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND THE
COLD WILL HANG ON LONGER THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF IT OPENS UP
AND TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE...THEN THE RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED E THU-FRI.
A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL THEN ARRIVE HERE SAT. THE 00Z GFS IRONICALLY
IS THE COLDER SCENARIO...BUT THE 18Z RUN IS IN THE EC CAMP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU AT DAYBREAK SUN AND
DEEP LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN MON. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL DIVE
SE TUE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THXGVG DAY. THIS HIGH WILL CONT INTO
THE SE USA FRI-SAT WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS TRACKING E THRU SRN
CANADA. ONE OF THESE COULD SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE SAT.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THRU TUE AND HIGH WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
MID-WEEK...BUT THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: AM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION /CAA/. BECOMING WINDY.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND WHILE THE FCST IS ESSENTIALLY DRY...BELIEVE WE
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A BRIEF SHWR OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE NAM AS WELL AS THE SIGNALS ALOFT SUGGEST A
NARROW LINE COULD DEVELOP.

NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40-45 MPH ALONG AND W OF HWY 281. NOT
BUYING THE NAM WINDS. ITS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED TO
INACCURATE LEFTOVER SNOW COVER.

SUN NIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES PRIMARILY N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES. EXPECT ANOTHER BURST OF WIND IN RENEWED CAA. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OF 50 MPH SOMEWHERE N OF I-80.

MON: ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES DEPART WITH ANOTHER BLUSTERY/CHILLY DAY
THOUGH NOT OF THE BITTER COLD FLAVOR WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. NW WINDS
WILL GUST 40-45 MPH.

TUE: INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. WE MAY NOT BE
CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.

WED: CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE 00Z/GFS LOOKS WAY TOO
WARM WITH ITS FLATTER LESS-AMPLIFIED LOOK ALOFT.

THXGVG DAY: WE ARE PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH. THERE IS ROOM TO THE
DOWNSIDE. WATCH FOR FUTURE FCSTS TO TURN COLDER. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GFS/EC/GEM OFFER HIGHS 20-27F ALONG AND N OF HWY 6.

FRI: DRY. NOT AS COLD.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON A MAJOR MULTI-
DAY DUMP OF COLD AIR HERE BEGINNING THXGVG DAY. IT STILL HAS IT FOR
THE HOLIDAY...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS DURATION.

THEREAFTER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING PERSISTENT SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPS IS COMING IN EARLY DEC. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ENTERING PHASE 3 AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PHASE 4.
THIS IS NOT THE ONLY INPUT INTO THE PATTERN...SO NO GUARANTEES ON
THIS...BUT PHASES 3-4 ARE CORRELATED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND YESTERDAY`S CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS IT.

THE MAJOR PROBLEM IS THE DRYNESS. NW FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP HERE. SO EXPECT WE WILL TRANSITION
FROM COLD AND DRY TO MILD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE AVIATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOADED WITH CHALLENGES IN
THE SHORT TERM DUE TO A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING
AROUND BETWEEN KGRI AND KEAR. KGRI BRIEFLY CLEARED OUT...BUT AS OF
530 AM WAS SOCKED IN UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN WHILE KEAR WAS
FREE OF THE CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL 530 AM WHEN THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD BACKED WEST INTO KEAR. THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE AREA UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AND THEN EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...KGRI HAS BEEN
DEALING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG AND LIGHT MIST. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE WIND WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UNTIL
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH JUST PRIOR TO DAWN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM GRAND ISLAND EAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 221324
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
724 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE VSBYS ARE THE LOWEST...AROUND ONE
QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF LIGHT ICING WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND EVEN A LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE FOG AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY ALONG HWY 81 AND OVER OUR
OTHER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS LARGELY KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN OUR EAST UP OVERNIGHT TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. THE CLOUDS CLEARED FOR AT LEAST A TIME ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281 ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AND
CONCERN FOR A PROBLEM IS WHERE WE CLEARED...HAD THE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THEN HAD CLOUDS AND A LIGHT MIST MOVE
BACK IN. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A LIGHT ICY FILM MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE FREEZING FOG. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
EXISTS FROM HASTINGS AND CLAY CENTER...TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG AREA. SO FAR THE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY TO SLOWLY RISEN AS THE THICKER CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIST
MOVED BACK IN. HOWEVER...ANY FOG/MIST RELATED ICING IS STILL OUR
PRIMARY CONCERN TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS MORNING. SEVERAL PHONE CALLS
TO AREA COUNTIES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT AS OF 4 AM ANY DENSE FOG WAS
RATHER LOCALIZED AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE FOG MAY THICKEN AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE NEAR SUNRISE...RESULTING THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY...OVERALL MOST FORECAST MODELS EVENTUALLY DISPERSE THE FOG
AND PUSH THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE QUICKER WE CLEAR OUT THE WARMER WE
WILL GET TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER...POSSIBLY NOT
LONG AFTER SUNRISE...WHILE EASTERN AREAS MAY BE SOCKED IN THE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME.
EVEN EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON
TO HELP LIFT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS TRY TO PUSH BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

PATTERN: THE BITTER COLD HAS BACKED OFF BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF SERIOUS
COLD THIS WEEK. IT IS LOOKING MILDER AS WE HEAD INTO DEC...BUT STILL
SEE NO DECENT PRECIP EVENTS IN THE OFFING IN THIS PREDOMINANT NW
FLOW/ZONAL FLOW.

ALOFT: REAMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS
OVER THE CNTRL USA SUN WILL CARVE OUT A NEW LONGWAVE TROF. THE NRN
ROCKIES TROF WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN EVE. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN ITS
WAKE THRU THXGVG DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RACE THRU HERE
TUE NIGHT. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER ANOTHER BLAST OF BITTER COLD.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE E PAC AMONG THE LAST 2
RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS BEGINNING AND THIS HAS FCST IMPLICATIONS HERE
PERTAINING TO HOW LONG ARCTIC AIR REMAINS. IF A CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OFF THE COAST...THEN THE WRN USA RIDGE WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND THE
COLD WILL HANG ON LONGER THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF IT OPENS UP
AND TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE...THEN THE RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED E THU-FRI.
A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL THEN ARRIVE HERE SAT. THE 00Z GFS IRONICALLY
IS THE COLDER SCENARIO...BUT THE 18Z RUN IS IN THE EC CAMP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU AT DAYBREAK SUN AND
DEEP LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN MON. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL DIVE
SE TUE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THXGVG DAY. THIS HIGH WILL CONT INTO
THE SE USA FRI-SAT WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS TRACKING E THRU SRN
CANADA. ONE OF THESE COULD SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE SAT.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THRU TUE AND HIGH WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
MID-WEEK...BUT THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: AM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION /CAA/. BECOMING WINDY.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND WHILE THE FCST IS ESSENTIALLY DRY...BELIEVE WE
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A BRIEF SHWR OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE NAM AS WELL AS THE SIGNALS ALOFT SUGGEST A
NARROW LINE COULD DEVELOP.

NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40-45 MPH ALONG AND W OF HWY 281. NOT
BUYING THE NAM WINDS. ITS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED TO
INACCURATE LEFTOVER SNOW COVER.

SUN NIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES PRIMARILY N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES. EXPECT ANOTHER BURST OF WIND IN RENEWED CAA. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OF 50 MPH SOMEWHERE N OF I-80.

MON: ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES DEPART WITH ANOTHER BLUSTERY/CHILLY DAY
THOUGH NOT OF THE BITTER COLD FLAVOR WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. NW WINDS
WILL GUST 40-45 MPH.

TUE: INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. WE MAY NOT BE
CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.

WED: CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE 00Z/GFS LOOKS WAY TOO
WARM WITH ITS FLATTER LESS-AMPLIFIED LOOK ALOFT.

THXGVG DAY: WE ARE PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH. THERE IS ROOM TO THE
DOWNSIDE. WATCH FOR FUTURE FCSTS TO TURN COLDER. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GFS/EC/GEM OFFER HIGHS 20-27F ALONG AND N OF HWY 6.

FRI: DRY. NOT AS COLD.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON A MAJOR MULTI-
DAY DUMP OF COLD AIR HERE BEGINNING THXGVG DAY. IT STILL HAS IT FOR
THE HOLIDAY...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS DURATION.

THEREAFTER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING PERSISTENT SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPS IS COMING IN EARLY DEC. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ENTERING PHASE 3 AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PHASE 4.
THIS IS NOT THE ONLY INPUT INTO THE PATTERN...SO NO GUARANTEES ON
THIS...BUT PHASES 3-4 ARE CORRELATED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND YESTERDAY`S CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS IT.

THE MAJOR PROBLEM IS THE DRYNESS. NW FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP HERE. SO EXPECT WE WILL TRANSITION
FROM COLD AND DRY TO MILD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE AVIATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOADED WITH CHALLENGES IN
THE SHORT TERM DUE TO A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING
AROUND BETWEEN KGRI AND KEAR. KGRI BRIEFLY CLEARED OUT...BUT AS OF
530 AM WAS SOCKED IN UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN WHILE KEAR WAS
FREE OF THE CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL 530 AM WHEN THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD BACKED WEST INTO KEAR. THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE AREA UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AND THEN EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...KGRI HAS BEEN
DEALING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG AND LIGHT MIST. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE WIND WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UNTIL
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH JUST PRIOR TO DAWN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM GRAND ISLAND EAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 221324
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
724 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE VSBYS ARE THE LOWEST...AROUND ONE
QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF LIGHT ICING WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND EVEN A LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE FOG AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY ALONG HWY 81 AND OVER OUR
OTHER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS LARGELY KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN OUR EAST UP OVERNIGHT TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. THE CLOUDS CLEARED FOR AT LEAST A TIME ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281 ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AND
CONCERN FOR A PROBLEM IS WHERE WE CLEARED...HAD THE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THEN HAD CLOUDS AND A LIGHT MIST MOVE
BACK IN. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A LIGHT ICY FILM MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE FREEZING FOG. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
EXISTS FROM HASTINGS AND CLAY CENTER...TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG AREA. SO FAR THE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY TO SLOWLY RISEN AS THE THICKER CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIST
MOVED BACK IN. HOWEVER...ANY FOG/MIST RELATED ICING IS STILL OUR
PRIMARY CONCERN TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS MORNING. SEVERAL PHONE CALLS
TO AREA COUNTIES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT AS OF 4 AM ANY DENSE FOG WAS
RATHER LOCALIZED AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE FOG MAY THICKEN AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE NEAR SUNRISE...RESULTING THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY...OVERALL MOST FORECAST MODELS EVENTUALLY DISPERSE THE FOG
AND PUSH THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE QUICKER WE CLEAR OUT THE WARMER WE
WILL GET TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER...POSSIBLY NOT
LONG AFTER SUNRISE...WHILE EASTERN AREAS MAY BE SOCKED IN THE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME.
EVEN EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON
TO HELP LIFT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS TRY TO PUSH BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

PATTERN: THE BITTER COLD HAS BACKED OFF BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF SERIOUS
COLD THIS WEEK. IT IS LOOKING MILDER AS WE HEAD INTO DEC...BUT STILL
SEE NO DECENT PRECIP EVENTS IN THE OFFING IN THIS PREDOMINANT NW
FLOW/ZONAL FLOW.

ALOFT: REAMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS
OVER THE CNTRL USA SUN WILL CARVE OUT A NEW LONGWAVE TROF. THE NRN
ROCKIES TROF WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN EVE. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN ITS
WAKE THRU THXGVG DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RACE THRU HERE
TUE NIGHT. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER ANOTHER BLAST OF BITTER COLD.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE E PAC AMONG THE LAST 2
RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS BEGINNING AND THIS HAS FCST IMPLICATIONS HERE
PERTAINING TO HOW LONG ARCTIC AIR REMAINS. IF A CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OFF THE COAST...THEN THE WRN USA RIDGE WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND THE
COLD WILL HANG ON LONGER THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF IT OPENS UP
AND TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE...THEN THE RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED E THU-FRI.
A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL THEN ARRIVE HERE SAT. THE 00Z GFS IRONICALLY
IS THE COLDER SCENARIO...BUT THE 18Z RUN IS IN THE EC CAMP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU AT DAYBREAK SUN AND
DEEP LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN MON. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL DIVE
SE TUE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THXGVG DAY. THIS HIGH WILL CONT INTO
THE SE USA FRI-SAT WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS TRACKING E THRU SRN
CANADA. ONE OF THESE COULD SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE SAT.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THRU TUE AND HIGH WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
MID-WEEK...BUT THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: AM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION /CAA/. BECOMING WINDY.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND WHILE THE FCST IS ESSENTIALLY DRY...BELIEVE WE
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A BRIEF SHWR OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE NAM AS WELL AS THE SIGNALS ALOFT SUGGEST A
NARROW LINE COULD DEVELOP.

NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40-45 MPH ALONG AND W OF HWY 281. NOT
BUYING THE NAM WINDS. ITS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED TO
INACCURATE LEFTOVER SNOW COVER.

SUN NIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES PRIMARILY N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES. EXPECT ANOTHER BURST OF WIND IN RENEWED CAA. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OF 50 MPH SOMEWHERE N OF I-80.

MON: ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES DEPART WITH ANOTHER BLUSTERY/CHILLY DAY
THOUGH NOT OF THE BITTER COLD FLAVOR WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. NW WINDS
WILL GUST 40-45 MPH.

TUE: INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. WE MAY NOT BE
CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.

WED: CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE 00Z/GFS LOOKS WAY TOO
WARM WITH ITS FLATTER LESS-AMPLIFIED LOOK ALOFT.

THXGVG DAY: WE ARE PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH. THERE IS ROOM TO THE
DOWNSIDE. WATCH FOR FUTURE FCSTS TO TURN COLDER. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GFS/EC/GEM OFFER HIGHS 20-27F ALONG AND N OF HWY 6.

FRI: DRY. NOT AS COLD.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON A MAJOR MULTI-
DAY DUMP OF COLD AIR HERE BEGINNING THXGVG DAY. IT STILL HAS IT FOR
THE HOLIDAY...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS DURATION.

THEREAFTER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING PERSISTENT SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPS IS COMING IN EARLY DEC. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ENTERING PHASE 3 AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PHASE 4.
THIS IS NOT THE ONLY INPUT INTO THE PATTERN...SO NO GUARANTEES ON
THIS...BUT PHASES 3-4 ARE CORRELATED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND YESTERDAY`S CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS IT.

THE MAJOR PROBLEM IS THE DRYNESS. NW FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP HERE. SO EXPECT WE WILL TRANSITION
FROM COLD AND DRY TO MILD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE AVIATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOADED WITH CHALLENGES IN
THE SHORT TERM DUE TO A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING
AROUND BETWEEN KGRI AND KEAR. KGRI BRIEFLY CLEARED OUT...BUT AS OF
530 AM WAS SOCKED IN UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN WHILE KEAR WAS
FREE OF THE CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL 530 AM WHEN THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD BACKED WEST INTO KEAR. THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE AREA UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AND THEN EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...KGRI HAS BEEN
DEALING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG AND LIGHT MIST. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE WIND WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UNTIL
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH JUST PRIOR TO DAWN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM GRAND ISLAND EAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAY
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 221207
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
607 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH A COLD FRONT SLAMMING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD...THEN COLDER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW BEHIND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SHALLOW TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE IN TO A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO TURN SURFACE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERING MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST BY MOST MODEL OUTPUT TO SCOUR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER MODELS TEND TO HAVE A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORECAST WINDS
WILL PARALLEL BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS LEADING TO SLOWER EROSION. THUS AM
NOT CONVINCED CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ALL THE WAY TO EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EVEN WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST.

AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...A MORE PRONOUNCED
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WHERE LAYER
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 30S AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 10C FROM 12Z TO 00Z.
THUS MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH...WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CORE
OF ASSOCIATED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL AND MAINLY DRY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PRONE TO REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR. ONE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED BY
GFS/ECMWF DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. THANKSGIVING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LEADING
TO LIMITED MIXING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS START OFF THE PERIOD AT KOMA AND KLNK WHILE KOFK
REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF THE LOWER CIGS. EXPECT KOFK TO BECOME VFR
BY 15Z AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRIER AIR SPREADS EAST.
LESS CERTAIN ON TIMING AT KOMA AND KLNK BUT TREND TOWARD VFR
15Z-18Z. LOWER CIGS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 00Z IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT




000
FXUS63 KOAX 221207
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
607 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH A COLD FRONT SLAMMING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD...THEN COLDER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW BEHIND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SHALLOW TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE IN TO A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO TURN SURFACE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERING MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST BY MOST MODEL OUTPUT TO SCOUR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER MODELS TEND TO HAVE A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORECAST WINDS
WILL PARALLEL BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS LEADING TO SLOWER EROSION. THUS AM
NOT CONVINCED CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ALL THE WAY TO EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EVEN WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST.

AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...A MORE PRONOUNCED
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WHERE LAYER
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 30S AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 10C FROM 12Z TO 00Z.
THUS MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH...WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CORE
OF ASSOCIATED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL AND MAINLY DRY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PRONE TO REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR. ONE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED BY
GFS/ECMWF DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. THANKSGIVING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LEADING
TO LIMITED MIXING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS START OFF THE PERIOD AT KOMA AND KLNK WHILE KOFK
REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF THE LOWER CIGS. EXPECT KOFK TO BECOME VFR
BY 15Z AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRIER AIR SPREADS EAST.
LESS CERTAIN ON TIMING AT KOMA AND KLNK BUT TREND TOWARD VFR
15Z-18Z. LOWER CIGS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 00Z IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT



000
FXUS63 KGID 221144
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
544 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND EVEN A LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE FOG AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY ALONG HWY 81 AND OVER OUR
OTHER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS LARGELY KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN OUR EAST UP OVERNIGHT TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. THE CLOUDS CLEARED FOR AT LEAST A TIME ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281 ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AND
CONCERN FOR A PROBLEM IS WHERE WE CLEARED...HAD THE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THEN HAD CLOUDS AND A LIGHT MIST MOVE
BACK IN. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A LIGHT ICY FILM MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE FREEZING FOG. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
EXISTS FROM HASTINGS AND CLAY CENTER...TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG AREA. SO FAR THE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY TO SLOWLY RISEN AS THE THICKER CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIST
MOVED BACK IN. HOWEVER...ANY FOG/MIST RELATED ICING IS STILL OUR
PRIMARY CONCERN TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS MORNING. SEVERAL PHONE CALLS
TO AREA COUNTIES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT AS OF 4 AM ANY DENSE FOG WAS
RATHER LOCALIZED AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE FOG MAY THICKEN AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE NEAR SUNRISE...RESULTING THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY...OVERALL MOST FORECAST MODELS EVENTUALLY DISPERSE THE FOG
AND PUSH THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE QUICKER WE CLEAR OUT THE WARMER WE
WILL GET TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER...POSSIBLY NOT
LONG AFTER SUNRISE...WHILE EASTERN AREAS MAY BE SOCKED IN THE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME.
EVEN EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON
TO HELP LIFT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS TRY TO PUSH BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

PATTERN: THE BITTER COLD HAS BACKED OFF BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF SERIOUS
COLD THIS WEEK. IT IS LOOKING MILDER AS WE HEAD INTO DEC...BUT STILL
SEE NO DECENT PRECIP EVENTS IN THE OFFING IN THIS PREDOMINANT NW
FLOW/ZONAL FLOW.

ALOFT: REAMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS
OVER THE CNTRL USA SUN WILL CARVE OUT A NEW LONGWAVE TROF. THE NRN
ROCKIES TROF WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN EVE. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN ITS
WAKE THRU THXGVG DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RACE THRU HERE
TUE NIGHT. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER ANOTHER BLAST OF BITTER COLD.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE E PAC AMONG THE LAST 2
RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS BEGINNING AND THIS HAS FCST IMPLICATIONS HERE
PERTAINING TO HOW LONG ARCTIC AIR REMAINS. IF A CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OFF THE COAST...THEN THE WRN USA RIDGE WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND THE
COLD WILL HANG ON LONGER THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF IT OPENS UP
AND TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE...THEN THE RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED E THU-FRI.
A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL THEN ARRIVE HERE SAT. THE 00Z GFS IRONICALLY
IS THE COLDER SCENARIO...BUT THE 18Z RUN IS IN THE EC CAMP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU AT DAYBREAK SUN AND
DEEP LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN MON. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL DIVE
SE TUE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THXGVG DAY. THIS HIGH WILL CONT INTO
THE SE USA FRI-SAT WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS TRACKING E THRU SRN
CANADA. ONE OF THESE COULD SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE SAT.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THRU TUE AND HIGH WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
MID-WEEK...BUT THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: AM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION /CAA/. BECOMING WINDY.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND WHILE THE FCST IS ESSENTIALLY DRY...BELIEVE WE
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A BRIEF SHWR OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE NAM AS WELL AS THE SIGNALS ALOFT SUGGEST A
NARROW LINE COULD DEVELOP.

NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40-45 MPH ALONG AND W OF HWY 281. NOT
BUYING THE NAM WINDS. ITS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED TO
INACCURATE LEFTOVER SNOW COVER.

SUN NIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES PRIMARILY N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES. EXPECT ANOTHER BURST OF WIND IN RENEWED CAA. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OF 50 MPH SOMEWHERE N OF I-80.

MON: ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES DEPART WITH ANOTHER BLUSTERY/CHILLY DAY
THOUGH NOT OF THE BITTER COLD FLAVOR WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. NW WINDS
WILL GUST 40-45 MPH.

TUE: INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. WE MAY NOT BE
CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.

WED: CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE 00Z/GFS LOOKS WAY TOO
WARM WITH ITS FLATTER LESS-AMPLIFIED LOOK ALOFT.

THXGVG DAY: WE ARE PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH. THERE IS ROOM TO THE
DOWNSIDE. WATCH FOR FUTURE FCSTS TO TURN COLDER. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GFS/EC/GEM OFFER HIGHS 20-27F ALONG AND N OF HWY 6.

FRI: DRY. NOT AS COLD.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON A MAJOR MULTI-
DAY DUMP OF COLD AIR HERE BEGINNING THXGVG DAY. IT STILL HAS IT FOR
THE HOLIDAY...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS DURATION.

THEREAFTER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING PERSISTENT SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPS IS COMING IN EARLY DEC. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ENTERING PHASE 3 AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PHASE 4.
THIS IS NOT THE ONLY INPUT INTO THE PATTERN...SO NO GUARANTEES ON
THIS...BUT PHASES 3-4 ARE CORRELATED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND YESTERDAY`S CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS IT.

THE MAJOR PROBLEM IS THE DRYNESS. NW FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP HERE. SO EXPECT WE WILL TRANSITION
FROM COLD AND DRY TO MILD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE AVIATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOADED WITH CHALLENGES IN
THE SHORT TERM DUE TO A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING
AROUND BETWEEN KGRI AND KEAR. KGRI BRIEFLY CLEARED OUT...BUT AS OF
530 AM WAS SOCKED IN UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN WHILE KEAR WAS
FREE OF THE CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL 530 AM WHEN THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD BACKED WEST INTO KEAR. THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE AREA UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AND THEN EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...KGRI HAS BEEN
DEALING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG AND LIGHT MIST. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE WIND WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UNTIL
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH JUST PRIOR TO DAWN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM GRAND ISLAND EAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KGID 221144
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
544 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND EVEN A LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE FOG AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY ALONG HWY 81 AND OVER OUR
OTHER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS LARGELY KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN OUR EAST UP OVERNIGHT TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. THE CLOUDS CLEARED FOR AT LEAST A TIME ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281 ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AND
CONCERN FOR A PROBLEM IS WHERE WE CLEARED...HAD THE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THEN HAD CLOUDS AND A LIGHT MIST MOVE
BACK IN. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A LIGHT ICY FILM MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE FREEZING FOG. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
EXISTS FROM HASTINGS AND CLAY CENTER...TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG AREA. SO FAR THE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY TO SLOWLY RISEN AS THE THICKER CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIST
MOVED BACK IN. HOWEVER...ANY FOG/MIST RELATED ICING IS STILL OUR
PRIMARY CONCERN TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS MORNING. SEVERAL PHONE CALLS
TO AREA COUNTIES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT AS OF 4 AM ANY DENSE FOG WAS
RATHER LOCALIZED AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE FOG MAY THICKEN AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE NEAR SUNRISE...RESULTING THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY...OVERALL MOST FORECAST MODELS EVENTUALLY DISPERSE THE FOG
AND PUSH THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE QUICKER WE CLEAR OUT THE WARMER WE
WILL GET TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER...POSSIBLY NOT
LONG AFTER SUNRISE...WHILE EASTERN AREAS MAY BE SOCKED IN THE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME.
EVEN EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON
TO HELP LIFT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS TRY TO PUSH BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

PATTERN: THE BITTER COLD HAS BACKED OFF BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF SERIOUS
COLD THIS WEEK. IT IS LOOKING MILDER AS WE HEAD INTO DEC...BUT STILL
SEE NO DECENT PRECIP EVENTS IN THE OFFING IN THIS PREDOMINANT NW
FLOW/ZONAL FLOW.

ALOFT: REAMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS
OVER THE CNTRL USA SUN WILL CARVE OUT A NEW LONGWAVE TROF. THE NRN
ROCKIES TROF WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN EVE. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN ITS
WAKE THRU THXGVG DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RACE THRU HERE
TUE NIGHT. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER ANOTHER BLAST OF BITTER COLD.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE E PAC AMONG THE LAST 2
RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS BEGINNING AND THIS HAS FCST IMPLICATIONS HERE
PERTAINING TO HOW LONG ARCTIC AIR REMAINS. IF A CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OFF THE COAST...THEN THE WRN USA RIDGE WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND THE
COLD WILL HANG ON LONGER THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF IT OPENS UP
AND TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE...THEN THE RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED E THU-FRI.
A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL THEN ARRIVE HERE SAT. THE 00Z GFS IRONICALLY
IS THE COLDER SCENARIO...BUT THE 18Z RUN IS IN THE EC CAMP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU AT DAYBREAK SUN AND
DEEP LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN MON. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL DIVE
SE TUE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THXGVG DAY. THIS HIGH WILL CONT INTO
THE SE USA FRI-SAT WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS TRACKING E THRU SRN
CANADA. ONE OF THESE COULD SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE SAT.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THRU TUE AND HIGH WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
MID-WEEK...BUT THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: AM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION /CAA/. BECOMING WINDY.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND WHILE THE FCST IS ESSENTIALLY DRY...BELIEVE WE
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A BRIEF SHWR OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE NAM AS WELL AS THE SIGNALS ALOFT SUGGEST A
NARROW LINE COULD DEVELOP.

NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40-45 MPH ALONG AND W OF HWY 281. NOT
BUYING THE NAM WINDS. ITS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED TO
INACCURATE LEFTOVER SNOW COVER.

SUN NIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES PRIMARILY N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES. EXPECT ANOTHER BURST OF WIND IN RENEWED CAA. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OF 50 MPH SOMEWHERE N OF I-80.

MON: ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES DEPART WITH ANOTHER BLUSTERY/CHILLY DAY
THOUGH NOT OF THE BITTER COLD FLAVOR WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. NW WINDS
WILL GUST 40-45 MPH.

TUE: INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. WE MAY NOT BE
CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.

WED: CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE 00Z/GFS LOOKS WAY TOO
WARM WITH ITS FLATTER LESS-AMPLIFIED LOOK ALOFT.

THXGVG DAY: WE ARE PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH. THERE IS ROOM TO THE
DOWNSIDE. WATCH FOR FUTURE FCSTS TO TURN COLDER. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GFS/EC/GEM OFFER HIGHS 20-27F ALONG AND N OF HWY 6.

FRI: DRY. NOT AS COLD.

THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON A MAJOR MULTI-
DAY DUMP OF COLD AIR HERE BEGINNING THXGVG DAY. IT STILL HAS IT FOR
THE HOLIDAY...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS DURATION.

THEREAFTER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING PERSISTENT SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPS IS COMING IN EARLY DEC. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ENTERING PHASE 3 AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PHASE 4.
THIS IS NOT THE ONLY INPUT INTO THE PATTERN...SO NO GUARANTEES ON
THIS...BUT PHASES 3-4 ARE CORRELATED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND YESTERDAY`S CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS IT.

THE MAJOR PROBLEM IS THE DRYNESS. NW FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP HERE. SO EXPECT WE WILL TRANSITION
FROM COLD AND DRY TO MILD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE AVIATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOADED WITH CHALLENGES IN
THE SHORT TERM DUE TO A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING
AROUND BETWEEN KGRI AND KEAR. KGRI BRIEFLY CLEARED OUT...BUT AS OF
530 AM WAS SOCKED IN UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN WHILE KEAR WAS
FREE OF THE CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT UNTIL 530 AM WHEN THE BACK
EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD BACKED WEST INTO KEAR. THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE AREA UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AND THEN EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...KGRI HAS BEEN
DEALING WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG AND LIGHT MIST. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. THE WIND WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UNTIL
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH JUST PRIOR TO DAWN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM GRAND ISLAND EAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KLBF 221136 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOME MIFG EARLY THIS MORNING AT KLBF COMING OFF THE OPEN WATER NEAR
THE ASOS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST AS IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT IS
COVERED IN THE TAF FOR KLBF. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR
TERM. MODELS STILL UNDER DOING TEMPERATURES BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY.
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. 850MB TEMPERATURES
SOAR TO 12C+ OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE GUIDANCE 3F TO 4F OVER ALL OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM 53 AT ONEILL TO 67 AT IMPERIAL. TEMPERATURES SOUTH MAY HAVE TO
BE BUMPED UP EVEN MORE THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE DRY SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF FROPA TONIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING AFTER 23/00Z. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE
WITH CAA AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND DIG SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...SENDING A FRONT THROUGH
THROUGH STATE. GFS SHOWS LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS IS 75
TO 100 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING SUNDAY MORNING
POPS AT THIS TIME. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY...SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE TONIGHT CAME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...NUDGED MAX T DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG CAA...H85 TEMPS
DROP FROM -10C IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO 0 TO -2C IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS
FROM FALLING OFF...AND KEPT LOW TO MID 20S IN THE GRIDS. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AFTER 18Z SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER SUNDOWN. LIFT IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE AND NOT
VERY DEEP...PWATS BELOW CLIMO...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS. BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR THE SD
BORDER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ONLY UPPER 20S/LOW 30S EXPECTED. KEPT
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR MONDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD DIE OFF BY SUNSET AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ON TUESDAY... WITH A STRENGTHENING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES THE CWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A 150KT 300MB JET NOSES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLAINS.
FAVORABLE JET CIRCULATION AND BEST SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
HOWEVER...WE CAN BE CONFIDENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BRINGING COLDER AIR
TO THE CWA AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ANY
WINTRY WEATHER AROUND THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD CAUSE
A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITE AT KLBF THROUGH 14Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AREAS OF
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOME FLURRIES OVER THE WEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 221136 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOME MIFG EARLY THIS MORNING AT KLBF COMING OFF THE OPEN WATER NEAR
THE ASOS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST AS IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT IS
COVERED IN THE TAF FOR KLBF. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR
TERM. MODELS STILL UNDER DOING TEMPERATURES BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY.
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. 850MB TEMPERATURES
SOAR TO 12C+ OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE GUIDANCE 3F TO 4F OVER ALL OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM 53 AT ONEILL TO 67 AT IMPERIAL. TEMPERATURES SOUTH MAY HAVE TO
BE BUMPED UP EVEN MORE THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE DRY SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF FROPA TONIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING AFTER 23/00Z. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE
WITH CAA AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND DIG SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...SENDING A FRONT THROUGH
THROUGH STATE. GFS SHOWS LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS IS 75
TO 100 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING SUNDAY MORNING
POPS AT THIS TIME. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY...SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE TONIGHT CAME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...NUDGED MAX T DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG CAA...H85 TEMPS
DROP FROM -10C IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO 0 TO -2C IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS
FROM FALLING OFF...AND KEPT LOW TO MID 20S IN THE GRIDS. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AFTER 18Z SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER SUNDOWN. LIFT IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE AND NOT
VERY DEEP...PWATS BELOW CLIMO...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS. BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR THE SD
BORDER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ONLY UPPER 20S/LOW 30S EXPECTED. KEPT
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR MONDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD DIE OFF BY SUNSET AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ON TUESDAY... WITH A STRENGTHENING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES THE CWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A 150KT 300MB JET NOSES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLAINS.
FAVORABLE JET CIRCULATION AND BEST SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
HOWEVER...WE CAN BE CONFIDENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BRINGING COLDER AIR
TO THE CWA AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ANY
WINTRY WEATHER AROUND THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD CAUSE
A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITE AT KLBF THROUGH 14Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AREAS OF
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOME FLURRIES OVER THE WEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 221136 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOME MIFG EARLY THIS MORNING AT KLBF COMING OFF THE OPEN WATER NEAR
THE ASOS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST AS IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT IS
COVERED IN THE TAF FOR KLBF. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR
TERM. MODELS STILL UNDER DOING TEMPERATURES BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY.
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. 850MB TEMPERATURES
SOAR TO 12C+ OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE GUIDANCE 3F TO 4F OVER ALL OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM 53 AT ONEILL TO 67 AT IMPERIAL. TEMPERATURES SOUTH MAY HAVE TO
BE BUMPED UP EVEN MORE THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE DRY SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF FROPA TONIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING AFTER 23/00Z. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE
WITH CAA AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND DIG SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...SENDING A FRONT THROUGH
THROUGH STATE. GFS SHOWS LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS IS 75
TO 100 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING SUNDAY MORNING
POPS AT THIS TIME. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY...SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE TONIGHT CAME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...NUDGED MAX T DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG CAA...H85 TEMPS
DROP FROM -10C IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO 0 TO -2C IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS
FROM FALLING OFF...AND KEPT LOW TO MID 20S IN THE GRIDS. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AFTER 18Z SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER SUNDOWN. LIFT IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE AND NOT
VERY DEEP...PWATS BELOW CLIMO...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS. BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR THE SD
BORDER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ONLY UPPER 20S/LOW 30S EXPECTED. KEPT
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR MONDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD DIE OFF BY SUNSET AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ON TUESDAY... WITH A STRENGTHENING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES THE CWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A 150KT 300MB JET NOSES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLAINS.
FAVORABLE JET CIRCULATION AND BEST SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
HOWEVER...WE CAN BE CONFIDENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BRINGING COLDER AIR
TO THE CWA AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ANY
WINTRY WEATHER AROUND THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD CAUSE
A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITE AT KLBF THROUGH 14Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AREAS OF
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOME FLURRIES OVER THE WEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 221136 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
536 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOME MIFG EARLY THIS MORNING AT KLBF COMING OFF THE OPEN WATER NEAR
THE ASOS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST AS IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT IS
COVERED IN THE TAF FOR KLBF. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR
TERM. MODELS STILL UNDER DOING TEMPERATURES BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY.
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. 850MB TEMPERATURES
SOAR TO 12C+ OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE GUIDANCE 3F TO 4F OVER ALL OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM 53 AT ONEILL TO 67 AT IMPERIAL. TEMPERATURES SOUTH MAY HAVE TO
BE BUMPED UP EVEN MORE THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE DRY SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF FROPA TONIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING AFTER 23/00Z. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE
WITH CAA AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND DIG SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...SENDING A FRONT THROUGH
THROUGH STATE. GFS SHOWS LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS IS 75
TO 100 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING SUNDAY MORNING
POPS AT THIS TIME. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY...SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE TONIGHT CAME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...NUDGED MAX T DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG CAA...H85 TEMPS
DROP FROM -10C IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO 0 TO -2C IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS
FROM FALLING OFF...AND KEPT LOW TO MID 20S IN THE GRIDS. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AFTER 18Z SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER SUNDOWN. LIFT IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE AND NOT
VERY DEEP...PWATS BELOW CLIMO...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS. BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR THE SD
BORDER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ONLY UPPER 20S/LOW 30S EXPECTED. KEPT
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR MONDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD DIE OFF BY SUNSET AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ON TUESDAY... WITH A STRENGTHENING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES THE CWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A 150KT 300MB JET NOSES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLAINS.
FAVORABLE JET CIRCULATION AND BEST SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
HOWEVER...WE CAN BE CONFIDENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BRINGING COLDER AIR
TO THE CWA AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ANY
WINTRY WEATHER AROUND THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD CAUSE
A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITE AT KLBF THROUGH 14Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AREAS OF
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOME FLURRIES OVER THE WEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KGID 221020
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND EVEN A LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE FOG AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY ALONG HWY 81 AND OVER OUR
OTHER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS LARGELY KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN OUR EAST UP OVERNIGHT TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. THE CLOUDS CLEARED FOR AT LEAST A TIME ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281 ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AND
CONCERN FOR A PROBLEM IS WHERE WE CLEARED...HAD THE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THEN HAD CLOUDS AND A LIGHT MIST MOVE
BACK IN. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A LIGHT ICY FILM MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE FREEZING FOG. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
EXISTS FROM HASTINGS AND CLAY CENTER...TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG AREA. SO FAR THE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY TO SLOWLY RISEN AS THE THICKER CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIST
MOVED BACK IN. HOWEVER...ANY FOG/MIST RELATED ICING IS STILL OUR
PRIMARY CONCERN TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS MORNING. SEVERAL PHONE CALLS
TO AREA COUNTIES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT AS OF 4 AM ANY DENSE FOG WAS
RATHER LOCALIZED AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE FOG MAY THICKEN AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE NEAR SUNRISE...RESULTING THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY...OVERALL MOST FORECAST MODELS EVENTUALLY DISPERSE THE FOG
AND PUSH THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE QUICKER WE CLEAR OUT THE WARMER WE
WILL GET TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER...POSSIBLY NOT
LONG AFTER SUNRISE...WHILE EASTERN AREAS MAY BE SOCKED IN THE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME.
EVEN EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON
TO HELP LIFT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS TRY TO PUSH BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

PATTERN: THE BITTER COLD HAS BACKED OFF BUT ANOTHER PERIODS OF
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF SERIOUS
COLD THIS WEEK. IT IS LOOKING MILDER AS WE HEAD INTO DEC...BUT STILL
SEE NO DECENT PRECIP EVENTS IN THE OFFING IN THIS PREDOMINANT NW
FLOW/ZONAL FLOW.

ALOFT: REAMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS
OVER THE CNTRL USA SUN WILL CARVE OUT A NEW LONGWAVE TROF. THE NRN
ROCKIES TROF WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN EVE. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN ITS
WAKE THRU THXGVG DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RACE THRU HERE
TUE NIGHT. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER ANOTHER BLAST OF BITTER COLD.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE E PAC AMONG THE LAST 2
RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS BEGINNING AND THIS HAS FCST IMPLICATIONS HERE
PERTAINING TO HOW LONG ARCTIC AIR REMAINS. IF A CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OFF THE COAST...THEN THE WRN USA RIDGE WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND THE
COLD WILL HANG ON LONGER THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF IT OPENS UP
AND TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE...THEN THE RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED E THU-FRI.
A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL THEN ARRIVE HERE SAT. THE 00Z GFS IRONICALLY
IS THE COLDER SCENARIO...BUT THE 18Z RUN IS IN THE EC CAMP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU AT DAYBREAK SUN AND
DEEP LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN MON. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL DIVE
SE TUE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THXGVG DAY. THIS HIGH WILL CONT INTO
THE SE USA FRI-SAT WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS TRACKING E THRU SRN
CANADA. ONE OF THESE COULD SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE SAT.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THRU TUE AND HIGH WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
MID-WEEK...BUT THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: AM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION /CAA/. BECOMING WINDY.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND WHILE THE FCST IS ESSENTIALLY DRY...BELIEVE WE
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A BRIEF SHWR OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE NAM AS WELL AS THE SIGNALS ALOFT SUGGEST A
NARROW LINE COULD DEVELOP.

NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40-45 MPH ALONG AND W OF HWY 281. NOT
BUYING THE NAM WINDS. ITS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED TO
INACCURATE LEFTOVER SNOW COVER.

SUN NIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES PRIMARILY N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES. EXPECT ANOTHER BURST OF WIND IN RENEWED CAA. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OF 50 MPH SOMEWHERE N OF I-80.

MON: ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES DEPART WITH ANOTHER BLUSTERY/CHILLY DAY
THOUGH NOT OF THE BITTER COLD FLAVOR WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. NW WINDS
WILL GUST 40-45 MPH.

TUE: INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. WE MAY NOT BE
CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.

WED: CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE 00Z/GFS LOOKS WAY TOO
WARM WITH ITS FLATTER LESS-AMPLIFIED LOOK ALOFT.

THXGVG DAY: WE ARE PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH. THERE IS ROOM TO THE
DOWNSIDE. WATCH FOR FUTURE FCSTS TO TURN COLDER. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GFS/EC/GEM OFFER HIGHS 20-27F ALONG AND N OF HWY 6.

FRI: DRY. NOT AS COLD.

THEREAFTER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING PERSISTENT SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPS IS COMING IN EARLY DEC. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ENTERING PHASE 3 AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PHASE 4.
THIS IS NOT THE ONLY INPUT INTO THE PATTERN...SO NO GUARANTEES ON
THIS...BUT PHASES 3-4 ARE CORRELATED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND YESTERDAY`S CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS IT.

THE MAJOR PROBLEM IS THE DRYNESS. NW FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP HERE. SO EXPECT WE WILL TRANSITION
FROM COLD AND DRY TO MILD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE AVIATION FORECAST IS LOADED WITH CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM
DUE TO A LOW STRATUS BANK THAT JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND BETWEEN KGRI AND KEAR. KGRI IS SOCKED IN UNDER THE
LOW CLOUDS WHILE KEAR IS JUST WEST OF THE CLOUD SHIELD. THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN
SLIDE FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY BREAK. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...KGRI COULD ALSO SEE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. THE WIND WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY



000
FXUS63 KGID 221020
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND EVEN A LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE FOG AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HELD PRETTY STEADY ALONG HWY 81 AND OVER OUR
OTHER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS HAS LARGELY KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN OUR EAST UP OVERNIGHT TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. THE CLOUDS CLEARED FOR AT LEAST A TIME ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281 ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AND
CONCERN FOR A PROBLEM IS WHERE WE CLEARED...HAD THE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING...AND THEN HAD CLOUDS AND A LIGHT MIST MOVE
BACK IN. THERE IS A CONCERN THAT A LIGHT ICY FILM MAY FORM AS A
RESULT OF THE FREEZING FOG. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR THIS
EXISTS FROM HASTINGS AND CLAY CENTER...TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SMITH CENTER AND PHILLIPSBURG AREA. SO FAR THE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY TO SLOWLY RISEN AS THE THICKER CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIST
MOVED BACK IN. HOWEVER...ANY FOG/MIST RELATED ICING IS STILL OUR
PRIMARY CONCERN TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS MORNING. SEVERAL PHONE CALLS
TO AREA COUNTIES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT AS OF 4 AM ANY DENSE FOG WAS
RATHER LOCALIZED AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE FOG MAY THICKEN AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE NEAR SUNRISE...RESULTING THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY...OVERALL MOST FORECAST MODELS EVENTUALLY DISPERSE THE FOG
AND PUSH THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE QUICKER WE CLEAR OUT THE WARMER WE
WILL GET TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER...POSSIBLY NOT
LONG AFTER SUNRISE...WHILE EASTERN AREAS MAY BE SOCKED IN THE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY HITTING THE LOWER 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME.
EVEN EASTERN ZONES SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON
TO HELP LIFT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS
OVERHEAD.

TONIGHT...THE LOW CLOUDS TRY TO PUSH BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 281. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

PATTERN: THE BITTER COLD HAS BACKED OFF BUT ANOTHER PERIODS OF
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE MORE SURGES OF SERIOUS
COLD THIS WEEK. IT IS LOOKING MILDER AS WE HEAD INTO DEC...BUT STILL
SEE NO DECENT PRECIP EVENTS IN THE OFFING IN THIS PREDOMINANT NW
FLOW/ZONAL FLOW.

ALOFT: REAMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS
OVER THE CNTRL USA SUN WILL CARVE OUT A NEW LONGWAVE TROF. THE NRN
ROCKIES TROF WILL MOVE THRU HERE SUN EVE. NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN ITS
WAKE THRU THXGVG DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RACE THRU HERE
TUE NIGHT. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER ANOTHER BLAST OF BITTER COLD.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE E PAC AMONG THE LAST 2
RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS BEGINNING AND THIS HAS FCST IMPLICATIONS HERE
PERTAINING TO HOW LONG ARCTIC AIR REMAINS. IF A CLOSED LOW REMAINS
OFF THE COAST...THEN THE WRN USA RIDGE WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND THE
COLD WILL HANG ON LONGER THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF IT OPENS UP
AND TRIES TO MOVE ONSHORE...THEN THE RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED E THU-FRI.
A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL THEN ARRIVE HERE SAT. THE 00Z GFS IRONICALLY
IS THE COLDER SCENARIO...BUT THE 18Z RUN IS IN THE EC CAMP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU AT DAYBREAK SUN AND
DEEP LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN MON. A WEAK CLIPPER WILL DIVE
SE TUE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WED WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THXGVG DAY. THIS HIGH WILL CONT INTO
THE SE USA FRI-SAT WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS TRACKING E THRU SRN
CANADA. ONE OF THESE COULD SEND A COOL FRONT THRU HERE SAT.

FCST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THRU TUE AND HIGH WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
MID-WEEK...BUT THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND HOW LONG IT LINGERS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

SUN: AM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION /CAA/. BECOMING WINDY.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND WHILE THE FCST IS ESSENTIALLY DRY...BELIEVE WE
MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A BRIEF SHWR OR A FEW SPRINKLES.
THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE NAM AS WELL AS THE SIGNALS ALOFT SUGGEST A
NARROW LINE COULD DEVELOP.

NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40-45 MPH ALONG AND W OF HWY 281. NOT
BUYING THE NAM WINDS. ITS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED TO
INACCURATE LEFTOVER SNOW COVER.

SUN NIGHT: A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHWRS/FLURRIES PRIMARILY N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES. EXPECT ANOTHER BURST OF WIND IN RENEWED CAA. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OF 50 MPH SOMEWHERE N OF I-80.

MON: ANY LEFTOVER FLURRIES DEPART WITH ANOTHER BLUSTERY/CHILLY DAY
THOUGH NOT OF THE BITTER COLD FLAVOR WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. NW WINDS
WILL GUST 40-45 MPH.

TUE: INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. WE MAY NOT BE
CLOUDY ENOUGH.

TUE NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT
IT`S NOT IN THE FCST YET.

WED: CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS. THE 00Z/GFS LOOKS WAY TOO
WARM WITH ITS FLATTER LESS-AMPLIFIED LOOK ALOFT.

THXGVG DAY: WE ARE PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH. THERE IS ROOM TO THE
DOWNSIDE. WATCH FOR FUTURE FCSTS TO TURN COLDER. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GFS/EC/GEM OFFER HIGHS 20-27F ALONG AND N OF HWY 6.

FRI: DRY. NOT AS COLD.

THEREAFTER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING PERSISTENT SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPS IS COMING IN EARLY DEC. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION /MJO/ IS ENTERING PHASE 3 AND FCST TO MOVE INTO PHASE 4.
THIS IS NOT THE ONLY INPUT INTO THE PATTERN...SO NO GUARANTEES ON
THIS...BUT PHASES 3-4 ARE CORRELATED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND YESTERDAY`S CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS IT.

THE MAJOR PROBLEM IS THE DRYNESS. NW FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP HERE. SO EXPECT WE WILL TRANSITION
FROM COLD AND DRY TO MILD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE AVIATION FORECAST IS LOADED WITH CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM
DUE TO A LOW STRATUS BANK THAT JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND BETWEEN KGRI AND KEAR. KGRI IS SOCKED IN UNDER THE
LOW CLOUDS WHILE KEAR IS JUST WEST OF THE CLOUD SHIELD. THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN
SLIDE FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY BREAK. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...KGRI COULD ALSO SEE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. THE WIND WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY




000
FXUS63 KOAX 220942
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH A COLD FRONT SLAMMING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD...THEN COLDER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW BEHIND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SHALLOW TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE IN TO A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO TURN SURFACE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERING MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST BY MOST MODEL OUTPUT TO SCOUR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER MODELS TEND TO HAVE A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORECAST WINDS
WILL PARALLEL BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS LEADING TO SLOWER EROSION. THUS AM
NOT CONVINCED CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ALL THE WAY TO EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EVEN WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST.

AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...A MORE PRONOUNCED
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WHERE LAYER
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 30S AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 10C FROM 12Z TO 00Z.
THUS MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH...WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CORE
OF ASSOCIATED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL AND MAINLY DRY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PRONE TO REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR. ONE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED BY
GFS/ECMWF DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. THANKSGIVING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LEADING
TO LIMITED MIXING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MESSY AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS...TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KOMA WITH SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT
KLNK...AND MVFR AT KOFK WHICH REMAINS ON THE EDGE AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY 08-12Z. KLNK SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA...BY 12-16Z. HOWEVER...IFR
CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AT KLNK/KOFK BY 22-01Z AS THE NEXT BATCH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD




000
FXUS63 KOAX 220942
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WITH A COLD FRONT SLAMMING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD...THEN COLDER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW BEHIND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SHALLOW TROUGHING IN THE MID LEVELS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH WAS SEEN MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COMBINE IN TO A DEEPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO TURN SURFACE WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS INDUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERING MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST BY MOST MODEL OUTPUT TO SCOUR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER MODELS TEND TO HAVE A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH THICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND FORECAST WINDS
WILL PARALLEL BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS LEADING TO SLOWER EROSION. THUS AM
NOT CONVINCED CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ALL THE WAY TO EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...BUT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S EVEN WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST.

AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...A MORE PRONOUNCED
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF RAIN IN OUR SOUTH WHERE LAYER
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 30S AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WITH FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 12Z. LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL
IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 10C FROM 12Z TO 00Z.
THUS MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH...WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IOWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. CORE
OF ASSOCIATED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
COOL AND MAINLY DRY. UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...KEEPING OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PRONE TO REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD
AIR. ONE POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED BY
GFS/ECMWF DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK ON TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WILL RIDE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND. THANKSGIVING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LEADING
TO LIMITED MIXING AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MESSY AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT THE GOOD NEWS...TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KOMA WITH SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT
KLNK...AND MVFR AT KOFK WHICH REMAINS ON THE EDGE AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY 08-12Z. KLNK SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA...BY 12-16Z. HOWEVER...IFR
CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AT KLNK/KOFK BY 22-01Z AS THE NEXT BATCH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



000
FXUS63 KLBF 220933
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOME MIFG EARLY THIS MORNING AT KLBF COMING OFF THE OPEN WATER NEAR
THE ASOS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST AS IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT IS
COVERED IN THE TAF FOR KLBF. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR
TERM. MODELS STILL UNDER DOING TEMPERATURES BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY.
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. 850MB TEMPERATURES
SOAR TO 12C+ OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE GUIDANCE 3F TO 4F OVER ALL OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM 53 AT ONEILL TO 67 AT IMPERIAL. TEMPERATURES SOUTH MAY HAVE TO
BE BUMPED UP EVEN MORE THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE DRY SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF FROPA TONIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING AFTER 23/00Z. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE
WITH CAA AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND DIG SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...SENDING A FRONT THROUGH
THROUGH STATE. GFS SHOWS LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS IS 75
TO 100 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING SUNDAY MORNING
POPS AT THIS TIME. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY...SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE TONIGHT CAME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...NUDGED MAX T DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG CAA...H85 TEMPS
DROP FROM -10C IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO 0 TO -2C IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS
FROM FALLING OFF...AND KEPT LOW TO MID 20S IN THE GRIDS. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AFTER 18Z SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER SUNDOWN. LIFT IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE AND NOT
VERY DEEP...PWATS BELOW CLIMO...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS. BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR THE SD
BORDER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ONLY UPPER 20S/LOW 30S EXPECTED. KEPT
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR MONDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD DIE OFF BY SUNSET AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ON TUESDAY... WITH A STRENGTHENING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES THE CWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A 150KT 300MB JET NOSES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLAINS.
FAVORABLE JET CIRCULATION AND BEST SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
HOWEVER...WE CAN BE CONFIDENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BRINGING COLDER AIR
TO THE CWA AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ANY
WINTRY WEATHER AROUND THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD CAUSE
A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING. WIND 200-240 WILL INCREASE TO 12-14G18-23KT BY
18Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 220933
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOME MIFG EARLY THIS MORNING AT KLBF COMING OFF THE OPEN WATER NEAR
THE ASOS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST AS IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT IS
COVERED IN THE TAF FOR KLBF. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR
TERM. MODELS STILL UNDER DOING TEMPERATURES BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY.
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER MOVES OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. 850MB TEMPERATURES
SOAR TO 12C+ OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE GUIDANCE 3F TO 4F OVER ALL OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM 53 AT ONEILL TO 67 AT IMPERIAL. TEMPERATURES SOUTH MAY HAVE TO
BE BUMPED UP EVEN MORE THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE DRY SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF FROPA TONIGHT. HAVE CARRIED LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING AFTER 23/00Z. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE
WITH CAA AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND DIG SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...SENDING A FRONT THROUGH
THROUGH STATE. GFS SHOWS LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS IS 75
TO 100 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING SUNDAY MORNING
POPS AT THIS TIME. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY...SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE TONIGHT CAME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...NUDGED MAX T DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG CAA...H85 TEMPS
DROP FROM -10C IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO 0 TO -2C IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOWS
FROM FALLING OFF...AND KEPT LOW TO MID 20S IN THE GRIDS. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AFTER 18Z SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER SUNDOWN. LIFT IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE AND NOT
VERY DEEP...PWATS BELOW CLIMO...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS. BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR THE SD
BORDER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ONLY UPPER 20S/LOW 30S EXPECTED. KEPT
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR MONDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD DIE OFF BY SUNSET AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ON TUESDAY... WITH A STRENGTHENING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES THE CWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A 150KT 300MB JET NOSES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLAINS.
FAVORABLE JET CIRCULATION AND BEST SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN TO
OUR WEST AND NORTH. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
HOWEVER...WE CAN BE CONFIDENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BRINGING COLDER AIR
TO THE CWA AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS TIME...ANY
WINTRY WEATHER AROUND THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD CAUSE
A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING. WIND 200-240 WILL INCREASE TO 12-14G18-23KT BY
18Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER








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