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000
FXUS63 KOAX 180855
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
355 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY IS THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...
AND WAS MAKING ONLY SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY
SIMILAR IN MOVING LOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS THIS EVENING
BEFORE IT OPENS UP AND SWINGS THROUGH KANSAS ON SUNDAY AS KICKER LOW
DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.

AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING...PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AGITATED
BY SHEARED VORTICITY IN WARM ADVECTION WING WAS LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED FARTHER EAST
OVER OUR AREA. ALL ACTIVITY WAS GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH OR
NORTHWEST...WITH NO REAL PUSH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AS OF YET.
COMBINATION OF RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...ALONG WITH A BLEND OF
SHORT-RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS...SUGGESTS MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...SWEEPING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A MORE
SCATTERED LOOK TO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AS WE MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THERE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
MOVES WEST WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE
SURFACE LOW.

THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF
CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY SEEN IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD AND IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA NEAR
SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ALONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO OUR WESTERN
CWA. GFS/ECMWF AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST
CAPPING WILL HOLD IN MOST OF NEBRASKA...AND INSTEAD DEVELOPING
STORMS ALONG DRYLINE IN KANSAS. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE THE LIKELY
SCENARIO...BUT IF STORMS DO FIRE AS NAM INDICATES THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASED TORNADO RISK IN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY
ALONG WARM FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING. AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY...WITH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SEVERE...WITH MORE HIT AND MISS STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
DURING THE EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH INTERSTATE 80 BY SUNRISE
BEFORE SWEEPING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
SHOWERS BEHIND INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.

MUCH COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS ECMWF SHOWS SUB-
ZERO 850 TEMPERATURES AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO REMAIN IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.

NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRUDGES EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW COULD
BRING A SCATTERED SHOWER...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE OUR COOLER
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS PERHAPS TOPPING 60 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SETTLING ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER IS
FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH. HOWEVER BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS COME FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW EJECTS THROUGH THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SURE TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO PINNING DOWN TIMING/SEVERITY OF CONVECTION RISK
WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MOSTLY SCATTERED PCPN POTENTIAL THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED VFR BUT EXPECT SOME
DETERIORATION OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN SHRA/
TSRA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A DRY SLOT MAY
MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY THEN
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON TSRA IS FAIRLY LOW
FOR TIMING AND LOCATIONS IN LATER PART SO WILL COVER PART OF THAT
WITH A PROB30 FOR NOW.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 180855
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
355 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY IS THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING...
AND WAS MAKING ONLY SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY
SIMILAR IN MOVING LOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS THIS EVENING
BEFORE IT OPENS UP AND SWINGS THROUGH KANSAS ON SUNDAY AS KICKER LOW
DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.

AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS MORNING...PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AGITATED
BY SHEARED VORTICITY IN WARM ADVECTION WING WAS LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED FARTHER EAST
OVER OUR AREA. ALL ACTIVITY WAS GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH OR
NORTHWEST...WITH NO REAL PUSH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AS OF YET.
COMBINATION OF RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...ALONG WITH A BLEND OF
SHORT-RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS...SUGGESTS MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL ROTATE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...SWEEPING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A MORE
SCATTERED LOOK TO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AS WE MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THERE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
MOVES WEST WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW AND DEVELOPING SURFACE
SURFACE LOW.

THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON AMOUNT OF
CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY SEEN IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD AND IS
THE ODD MODEL OUT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA NEAR
SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ALONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO OUR WESTERN
CWA. GFS/ECMWF AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST
CAPPING WILL HOLD IN MOST OF NEBRASKA...AND INSTEAD DEVELOPING
STORMS ALONG DRYLINE IN KANSAS. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE THE LIKELY
SCENARIO...BUT IF STORMS DO FIRE AS NAM INDICATES THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASED TORNADO RISK IN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY
ALONG WARM FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING. AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY...WITH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SEVERE...WITH MORE HIT AND MISS STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA
DURING THE EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING TOWARD NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH INTERSTATE 80 BY SUNRISE
BEFORE SWEEPING SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
SHOWERS BEHIND INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.

MUCH COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS ECMWF SHOWS SUB-
ZERO 850 TEMPERATURES AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO REMAIN IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK.

NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRUDGES EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE RIPPLES IN THIS FLOW COULD
BRING A SCATTERED SHOWER...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE OUR COOLER
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS PERHAPS TOPPING 60 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SETTLING ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER IS
FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH. HOWEVER BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS COME FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW EJECTS THROUGH THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SURE TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO PINNING DOWN TIMING/SEVERITY OF CONVECTION RISK
WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MOSTLY SCATTERED PCPN POTENTIAL THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED VFR BUT EXPECT SOME
DETERIORATION OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN SHRA/
TSRA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A DRY SLOT MAY
MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY THEN
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON TSRA IS FAIRLY LOW
FOR TIMING AND LOCATIONS IN LATER PART SO WILL COVER PART OF THAT
WITH A PROB30 FOR NOW.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MILLER


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLBF 180828
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SPC SUGGESTED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND NCNTL NEB. A
PORTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SWRN KS THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SCNTL AND ERN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON SETTING UP A UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM ROUGHLY IMPERIAL
TO ONEILL.

ALTHOUGH THE RAP IS FAIRLY QUIET THE NAM AND HRRR SBN MODELS
SUGGEST REASONABLE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN
IF SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING THIS MORNING
ACROSS CNTL HIGH PLAINS OF KS/COLO AND IT IS BELIEVED THIS
CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO SCNTL NEB THIS AFTN.

THE STORM ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 18Z IN THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE NAM SOLN OR AS LATE AS 21Z-00Z IN THE HRRR MODEL.
SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS INDICATE THE CLEARING ACROSS KS COULD
REACH SOUTHWEST NEB BY 13-15Z THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A
GOOD START FOR MODEST HEATING GIVEN THAT THIS CLEARING AREA WOULD
TEND TO FILL IN WITH DEVELOPING CUMULUS.

ONE WEAKNESS ARE THE WIND FIELDS 500MB AND BELOW WHICH ARE LIGHT
PRODUCING BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KT OR LESS WHICH MIGHT SUPPORT
MORE OF HEAVY RAIN THREAT. STILL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE VERY
COLD AS THE H500MB LOW ACROSS COLO MOVES EAST TO NEAR
LIMON/SPRINGFIELD. WINDS AT 300MB ARE STRONG NEAR 65KT
POTENTIALLY ENHANCING UPDRAFTS AND PROVIDING VENTILATION.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE NEAR 5KFT SUPPORTING A LOW TOP STORM
ENVIRONMENT AND GOOD POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THE NAM IS PRODUCING
AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AT NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN BOW WHILE THE
RAP AND OTHER MODELS SHOW HALF OR LESS THAT VALUE.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
DISTURBANCE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE DRYING AND DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES
EAST WHILE A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS. SOME
LINGERING SUNDAY MORNING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
ZONES...HOWEVER THE BIGGER EVENTS OF THE DAY WILL BE THE CAA AND
INCREASING NW WINDS. AS THE LOW PUSHES ACROSS KS...DRY AIR WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND...RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST IN THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR ALL. THE SUN WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS
/GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH/ TO PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE BL AND
OFFSET THE CAA AND TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 50S.

EARLY IN THE WEEK THE TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND ABSORBS THE SOUTHERN LOW. ELONGATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS WELL TO THE NE
ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG THE NW
FLOW OVERHEAD AND BRING SOME PASSING CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND MODELS/FORECAST ARE DRY. TEMPS
TO START THE WEEK WILL BE CHILLY IN THE MORNING WITH MOST AREAS
NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. STILL A COUPLE OF WEEKS FROM
TYPICAL LAST FREEZE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...SO NO HEADLINES NEEDED
YET. HIGHS REBOUND NICELY WITH A WARMING TREND WITH 60S MAYBE 70
FOR WED AND THURS.

EYES THEN FOCUS ON A TROUGH AS IT DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NEAR SRN
CAL BY THURS. THE LOW THEN LIFTS TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS WHILE
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE. THE WAVE WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS
TO END THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF THE ACTIVE
WEATHER...AND WILL HAVE POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. STILL HAVE SOME LOCATION AND TIMING ISSUES TO IRON OUT
WHICH IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT SO POPS KEPT BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. AS FOR HAVING THUNDER AT ANY ONE POINT...THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW. PROJECTING FROM THE CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KLBF TO BE
INCLUDED IN THE TAF UNTIL ABOUT 08Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGID 180553
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

BACKED OFF OF CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE MID-EVENING BEFORE
CHANCES RAMP UP LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IS HEADING NORTH AND WILL HELP GENERATE MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER SRN CANADA WITH A
CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CO. MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING
THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE
SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
LOW-LVL FLOW.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED THRU THE FCST AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. SO
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG...PRIMARILY OVER
THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS COULD POP UP AT
ANY TIME...BUT NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED.

MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND THE CLUES ARE
IN SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT AN ARC OF STORMS TO FORM AND LIFT N-NE INTO
THE FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND COULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN SOME
SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS AND THERE WILL BE A DECREASING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SUBSEQUENT ARC OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SVR WX S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORNE KS.

AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT
WORST AND HVY RAIN. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID-MORNING SAT.

BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK AFTER THIS
ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY. THEN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER 15Z/SREF AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK UP TO GRAND ISLAND
/GRI/. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF 1" HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FAVOR WET WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.

THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES
WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY...THEN HEIGHTS RISE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHCS
FOR PCPN RETURN INTERMITTENTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
WAA AND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS TRENDING BLOCKY ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FM THE WEST COAST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM TIME TO TIME. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...INCREASING TO AROUND
10-12KT AFTER NOON...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 180553
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

BACKED OFF OF CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE MID-EVENING BEFORE
CHANCES RAMP UP LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IS HEADING NORTH AND WILL HELP GENERATE MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER SRN CANADA WITH A
CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CO. MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING
THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE
SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
LOW-LVL FLOW.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED THRU THE FCST AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. SO
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG...PRIMARILY OVER
THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS COULD POP UP AT
ANY TIME...BUT NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED.

MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND THE CLUES ARE
IN SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT AN ARC OF STORMS TO FORM AND LIFT N-NE INTO
THE FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND COULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN SOME
SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS AND THERE WILL BE A DECREASING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SUBSEQUENT ARC OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SVR WX S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORNE KS.

AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT
WORST AND HVY RAIN. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID-MORNING SAT.

BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK AFTER THIS
ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY. THEN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER 15Z/SREF AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK UP TO GRAND ISLAND
/GRI/. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF 1" HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FAVOR WET WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.

THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES
WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY...THEN HEIGHTS RISE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHCS
FOR PCPN RETURN INTERMITTENTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
WAA AND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS TRENDING BLOCKY ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FM THE WEST COAST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM TIME TO TIME. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...INCREASING TO AROUND
10-12KT AFTER NOON...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KLBF 180514
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1214 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AS FOR HAVING THUNDER AT ANY ONE POINT...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.
PROJECTING FROM THE CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KLBF TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAF UNTIL ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 180514
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1214 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AS FOR HAVING THUNDER AT ANY ONE POINT...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.
PROJECTING FROM THE CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KLBF TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAF UNTIL ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 180514
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1214 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AS FOR HAVING THUNDER AT ANY ONE POINT...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.
PROJECTING FROM THE CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KLBF TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAF UNTIL ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 180514
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1214 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AS FOR HAVING THUNDER AT ANY ONE POINT...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.
PROJECTING FROM THE CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KLBF TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAF UNTIL ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KOAX 180443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN POINTING TO PCPN REDEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT OVER WRN KS/SWRN NEB NOSE OF LLVL JET/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WITH FORCING BEING FURTHER ENHANCED VIA STOUT 300K
UPGLIDE. MODELS PROG INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE THEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN REACHES THE WRN CWA EARLY SAT
MORNING THEN LIFTS THRU THE NRN CWA DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLD IN NATURE.

ADDITION PCPN LOOKS PROBABLE THEN SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ALONG A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALL IN PART TO
LARGE CUT OFF LOW THATS BEEN SITTING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE LAST
SEVERALS DAYS EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT BEGINS ITS EWD TREK.
AT THIS POINT SUSPECT THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SMALL IN NATURE...THUS
HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS DOWN WITH SLGT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SRN CWA.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE 500MB AXIS EAST OF THE CWA...NW FLOW SETTLES IN
ALOFT WITH CAA BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
AFTN HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

DECENT MIXING ON TUESDAY WILL HELP AFTN HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE LOW
60S...BUT METEOGRAMS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY CHILLY CONDITIONS RETURN
THEREAFTER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR PCPN...GFS/ECM/CMC ALL
FOR THE MOST PART HAVE QPF LATE IN THE PD MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SRN CWA ALONG AXIS OF MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THUS SEEMS REASONABLE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
SMALL POPS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MOSTLY SCATTERED PCPN POTENTIAL THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED VFR BUT EXPECT SOME
DETERIORATION OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN SHRA/
TSRA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A DRY SLOT MAY
MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY THEN
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON TSRA IS FAIRLY LOW
FOR TIMING AND LOCATIONS IN LATER PART SO WILL COVER PART OF THAT
WITH A PROB30 FOR NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 180443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN POINTING TO PCPN REDEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT OVER WRN KS/SWRN NEB NOSE OF LLVL JET/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WITH FORCING BEING FURTHER ENHANCED VIA STOUT 300K
UPGLIDE. MODELS PROG INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE THEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN REACHES THE WRN CWA EARLY SAT
MORNING THEN LIFTS THRU THE NRN CWA DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLD IN NATURE.

ADDITION PCPN LOOKS PROBABLE THEN SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ALONG A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALL IN PART TO
LARGE CUT OFF LOW THATS BEEN SITTING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE LAST
SEVERALS DAYS EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT BEGINS ITS EWD TREK.
AT THIS POINT SUSPECT THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SMALL IN NATURE...THUS
HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS DOWN WITH SLGT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SRN CWA.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE 500MB AXIS EAST OF THE CWA...NW FLOW SETTLES IN
ALOFT WITH CAA BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
AFTN HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

DECENT MIXING ON TUESDAY WILL HELP AFTN HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE LOW
60S...BUT METEOGRAMS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY CHILLY CONDITIONS RETURN
THEREAFTER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR PCPN...GFS/ECM/CMC ALL
FOR THE MOST PART HAVE QPF LATE IN THE PD MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SRN CWA ALONG AXIS OF MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THUS SEEMS REASONABLE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
SMALL POPS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MOSTLY SCATTERED PCPN POTENTIAL THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED VFR BUT EXPECT SOME
DETERIORATION OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN SHRA/
TSRA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A DRY SLOT MAY
MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY THEN
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON TSRA IS FAIRLY LOW
FOR TIMING AND LOCATIONS IN LATER PART SO WILL COVER PART OF THAT
WITH A PROB30 FOR NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 180443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN POINTING TO PCPN REDEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT OVER WRN KS/SWRN NEB NOSE OF LLVL JET/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WITH FORCING BEING FURTHER ENHANCED VIA STOUT 300K
UPGLIDE. MODELS PROG INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE THEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN REACHES THE WRN CWA EARLY SAT
MORNING THEN LIFTS THRU THE NRN CWA DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLD IN NATURE.

ADDITION PCPN LOOKS PROBABLE THEN SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ALONG A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALL IN PART TO
LARGE CUT OFF LOW THATS BEEN SITTING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE LAST
SEVERALS DAYS EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT BEGINS ITS EWD TREK.
AT THIS POINT SUSPECT THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SMALL IN NATURE...THUS
HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS DOWN WITH SLGT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SRN CWA.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE 500MB AXIS EAST OF THE CWA...NW FLOW SETTLES IN
ALOFT WITH CAA BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
AFTN HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

DECENT MIXING ON TUESDAY WILL HELP AFTN HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE LOW
60S...BUT METEOGRAMS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY CHILLY CONDITIONS RETURN
THEREAFTER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR PCPN...GFS/ECM/CMC ALL
FOR THE MOST PART HAVE QPF LATE IN THE PD MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SRN CWA ALONG AXIS OF MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THUS SEEMS REASONABLE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
SMALL POPS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MOSTLY SCATTERED PCPN POTENTIAL THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED VFR BUT EXPECT SOME
DETERIORATION OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN SHRA/
TSRA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A DRY SLOT MAY
MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY THEN
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON TSRA IS FAIRLY LOW
FOR TIMING AND LOCATIONS IN LATER PART SO WILL COVER PART OF THAT
WITH A PROB30 FOR NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 180443
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN POINTING TO PCPN REDEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT OVER WRN KS/SWRN NEB NOSE OF LLVL JET/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WITH FORCING BEING FURTHER ENHANCED VIA STOUT 300K
UPGLIDE. MODELS PROG INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE THEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN REACHES THE WRN CWA EARLY SAT
MORNING THEN LIFTS THRU THE NRN CWA DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLD IN NATURE.

ADDITION PCPN LOOKS PROBABLE THEN SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ALONG A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALL IN PART TO
LARGE CUT OFF LOW THATS BEEN SITTING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE LAST
SEVERALS DAYS EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT BEGINS ITS EWD TREK.
AT THIS POINT SUSPECT THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SMALL IN NATURE...THUS
HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS DOWN WITH SLGT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SRN CWA.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE 500MB AXIS EAST OF THE CWA...NW FLOW SETTLES IN
ALOFT WITH CAA BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
AFTN HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

DECENT MIXING ON TUESDAY WILL HELP AFTN HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE LOW
60S...BUT METEOGRAMS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY CHILLY CONDITIONS RETURN
THEREAFTER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR PCPN...GFS/ECM/CMC ALL
FOR THE MOST PART HAVE QPF LATE IN THE PD MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SRN CWA ALONG AXIS OF MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THUS SEEMS REASONABLE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
SMALL POPS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MOSTLY SCATTERED PCPN POTENTIAL THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED VFR BUT EXPECT SOME
DETERIORATION OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN SHRA/
TSRA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A DRY SLOT MAY
MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. SCATTERED TSRA WILL LIKELY THEN
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON TSRA IS FAIRLY LOW
FOR TIMING AND LOCATIONS IN LATER PART SO WILL COVER PART OF THAT
WITH A PROB30 FOR NOW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 180234
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AS CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN MODIFIED BY RAIN COOLING AND DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...THE
EVENING SOUNDING FOR NORTH PLATTE SHOWED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ENERGY OF 1100 J/KG AND ABOUT 35KT FOR 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND WAS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION IN THE CELLS. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...WE CHOSE TO KEEP
THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT RATHER THAN REPLACE IT WITH A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING OGA...
IML AND LBF. FOR OGA AND IML...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND AN
ISOLATED FUNNEL MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO 3SM OR LOWER AND CEILING TO 1000 FEET AGL
OR LOWER.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SPRINGER
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 180234
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AS CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN MODIFIED BY RAIN COOLING AND DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...THE
EVENING SOUNDING FOR NORTH PLATTE SHOWED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ENERGY OF 1100 J/KG AND ABOUT 35KT FOR 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND WAS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION IN THE CELLS. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...WE CHOSE TO KEEP
THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT RATHER THAN REPLACE IT WITH A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING OGA...
IML AND LBF. FOR OGA AND IML...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND AN
ISOLATED FUNNEL MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO 3SM OR LOWER AND CEILING TO 1000 FEET AGL
OR LOWER.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SPRINGER
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 180234
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AS CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN MODIFIED BY RAIN COOLING AND DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...THE
EVENING SOUNDING FOR NORTH PLATTE SHOWED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ENERGY OF 1100 J/KG AND ABOUT 35KT FOR 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND WAS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION IN THE CELLS. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...WE CHOSE TO KEEP
THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT RATHER THAN REPLACE IT WITH A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING OGA...
IML AND LBF. FOR OGA AND IML...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND AN
ISOLATED FUNNEL MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO 3SM OR LOWER AND CEILING TO 1000 FEET AGL
OR LOWER.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SPRINGER
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 180234
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AS CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN MODIFIED BY RAIN COOLING AND DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...THE
EVENING SOUNDING FOR NORTH PLATTE SHOWED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ENERGY OF 1100 J/KG AND ABOUT 35KT FOR 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND WAS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION IN THE CELLS. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...WE CHOSE TO KEEP
THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT RATHER THAN REPLACE IT WITH A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING OGA...
IML AND LBF. FOR OGA AND IML...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND AN
ISOLATED FUNNEL MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO 3SM OR LOWER AND CEILING TO 1000 FEET AGL
OR LOWER.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SPRINGER
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KGID 180153
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
853 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

BACKED OFF OF CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE MID-EVENING BEFORE
CHANCES RAMP UP LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IS HEADING NORTH AND WILL HELP GENERATE MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER SRN CANADA WITH A
CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CO. MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING
THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE
SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
LOW-LVL FLOW.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED THRU THE FCST AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. SO
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG...PRIMARILY OVER
THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS COULD POP UP AT
ANY TIME...BUT NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED.

MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND THE CLUES ARE
IN SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT AN ARC OF STORMS TO FORM AND LIFT N-NE INTO
THE FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND COULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN SOME
SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS AND THERE WILL BE A DECREASING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SUBSEQUENT ARC OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SVR WX S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORNE KS.

AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT
WORST AND HVY RAIN. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID-MORNING SAT.

BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK AFTER THIS
ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY. THEN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER 15Z/SREF AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK UP TO GRAND ISLAND
/GRI/. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF 1" HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FAVOR WET WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.

THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES
WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY...THEN HEIGHTS RISE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHCS
FOR PCPN RETURN INTERMITTENTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
WAA AND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS TRENDING BLOCKY ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FM THE WEST COAST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE. ROUNDS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT KEPT PREVAILING VFR/MVFR.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 180153
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
853 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

BACKED OFF OF CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE MID-EVENING BEFORE
CHANCES RAMP UP LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IS HEADING NORTH AND WILL HELP GENERATE MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER SRN CANADA WITH A
CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CO. MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING
THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE
SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
LOW-LVL FLOW.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED THRU THE FCST AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. SO
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG...PRIMARILY OVER
THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS COULD POP UP AT
ANY TIME...BUT NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED.

MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND THE CLUES ARE
IN SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT AN ARC OF STORMS TO FORM AND LIFT N-NE INTO
THE FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND COULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN SOME
SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS AND THERE WILL BE A DECREASING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SUBSEQUENT ARC OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SVR WX S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORNE KS.

AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT
WORST AND HVY RAIN. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID-MORNING SAT.

BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK AFTER THIS
ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY. THEN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER 15Z/SREF AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK UP TO GRAND ISLAND
/GRI/. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF 1" HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FAVOR WET WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.

THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES
WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY...THEN HEIGHTS RISE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHCS
FOR PCPN RETURN INTERMITTENTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
WAA AND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS TRENDING BLOCKY ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FM THE WEST COAST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE. ROUNDS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT KEPT PREVAILING VFR/MVFR.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 180153
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
853 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

BACKED OFF OF CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE MID-EVENING BEFORE
CHANCES RAMP UP LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IS HEADING NORTH AND WILL HELP GENERATE MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER SRN CANADA WITH A
CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CO. MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING
THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE
SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
LOW-LVL FLOW.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED THRU THE FCST AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. SO
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG...PRIMARILY OVER
THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS COULD POP UP AT
ANY TIME...BUT NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED.

MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND THE CLUES ARE
IN SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT AN ARC OF STORMS TO FORM AND LIFT N-NE INTO
THE FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND COULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN SOME
SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS AND THERE WILL BE A DECREASING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SUBSEQUENT ARC OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SVR WX S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORNE KS.

AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT
WORST AND HVY RAIN. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID-MORNING SAT.

BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK AFTER THIS
ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY. THEN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER 15Z/SREF AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK UP TO GRAND ISLAND
/GRI/. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF 1" HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FAVOR WET WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.

THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES
WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY...THEN HEIGHTS RISE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHCS
FOR PCPN RETURN INTERMITTENTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
WAA AND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS TRENDING BLOCKY ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FM THE WEST COAST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE. ROUNDS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT KEPT PREVAILING VFR/MVFR.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 180153
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
853 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

BACKED OFF OF CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE MID-EVENING BEFORE
CHANCES RAMP UP LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IS HEADING NORTH AND WILL HELP GENERATE MORE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER SRN CANADA WITH A
CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CO. MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING
THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE
SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
LOW-LVL FLOW.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED THRU THE FCST AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. SO
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG...PRIMARILY OVER
THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS COULD POP UP AT
ANY TIME...BUT NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED.

MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND THE CLUES ARE
IN SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT AN ARC OF STORMS TO FORM AND LIFT N-NE INTO
THE FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND COULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN SOME
SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS AND THERE WILL BE A DECREASING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SUBSEQUENT ARC OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SVR WX S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORNE KS.

AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT
WORST AND HVY RAIN. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID-MORNING SAT.

BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK AFTER THIS
ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY. THEN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER 15Z/SREF AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK UP TO GRAND ISLAND
/GRI/. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF 1" HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FAVOR WET WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.

THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES
WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY...THEN HEIGHTS RISE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHCS
FOR PCPN RETURN INTERMITTENTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
WAA AND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS TRENDING BLOCKY ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FM THE WEST COAST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE. ROUNDS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT KEPT PREVAILING VFR/MVFR.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KLBF 180005
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
705 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING OGA...
IML AND LBF. FOR OGA AND IML...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND AN
ISOLATED FUNNEL MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO 3SM OR LOWER AND CEILING TO 1000 FEET AGL
OR LOWER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 180005
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
705 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING OGA...
IML AND LBF. FOR OGA AND IML...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND AN
ISOLATED FUNNEL MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO 3SM OR LOWER AND CEILING TO 1000 FEET AGL
OR LOWER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 180005
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
705 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING OGA...
IML AND LBF. FOR OGA AND IML...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND AN
ISOLATED FUNNEL MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO 3SM OR LOWER AND CEILING TO 1000 FEET AGL
OR LOWER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 180005
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
705 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING OGA...
IML AND LBF. FOR OGA AND IML...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND AN
ISOLATED FUNNEL MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO 3SM OR LOWER AND CEILING TO 1000 FEET AGL
OR LOWER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KGID 180000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER SRN CANADA WITH A
CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CO. MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING
THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE
SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
LOW-LVL FLOW.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED THRU THE FCST AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. SO
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG...PRIMARILY OVER
THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS COULD POP UP AT
ANY TIME...BUT NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED.

MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND THE CLUES ARE
IN SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT AN ARC OF STORMS TO FORM AND LIFT N-NE INTO
THE FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND COULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN SOME
SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS AND THERE WILL BE A DECREASING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SUBSEQUENT ARC OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SVR WX S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORNE KS.

AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT
WORST AND HVY RAIN. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID-MORNING SAT.

BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK AFTER THIS
ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY. THEN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER 15Z/SREF AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK UP TO GRAND ISLAND
/GRI/. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF 1" HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FAVOR WET WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.

THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES
WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY...THEN HEIGHTS RISE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHCS
FOR PCPN RETURN INTERMITTENTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
WAA AND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS TRENDING BLOCKY ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FM THE WEST COAST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE. ROUNDS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT KEPT PREVAILING VFR/MVFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KGID 180000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER SRN CANADA WITH A
CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CO. MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING
THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE
SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
LOW-LVL FLOW.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED THRU THE FCST AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. SO
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG...PRIMARILY OVER
THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS COULD POP UP AT
ANY TIME...BUT NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED.

MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND THE CLUES ARE
IN SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT AN ARC OF STORMS TO FORM AND LIFT N-NE INTO
THE FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND COULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN SOME
SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS AND THERE WILL BE A DECREASING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SUBSEQUENT ARC OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SVR WX S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORNE KS.

AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT
WORST AND HVY RAIN. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID-MORNING SAT.

BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK AFTER THIS
ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY. THEN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER 15Z/SREF AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK UP TO GRAND ISLAND
/GRI/. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF 1" HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FAVOR WET WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.

THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES
WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY...THEN HEIGHTS RISE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHCS
FOR PCPN RETURN INTERMITTENTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
WAA AND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS TRENDING BLOCKY ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FM THE WEST COAST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE. ROUNDS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT KEPT PREVAILING VFR/MVFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 180000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER SRN CANADA WITH A
CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CO. MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING
THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE
SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
LOW-LVL FLOW.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED THRU THE FCST AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. SO
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG...PRIMARILY OVER
THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS COULD POP UP AT
ANY TIME...BUT NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED.

MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND THE CLUES ARE
IN SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT AN ARC OF STORMS TO FORM AND LIFT N-NE INTO
THE FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND COULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN SOME
SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS AND THERE WILL BE A DECREASING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SUBSEQUENT ARC OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SVR WX S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORNE KS.

AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT
WORST AND HVY RAIN. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID-MORNING SAT.

BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK AFTER THIS
ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY. THEN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER 15Z/SREF AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK UP TO GRAND ISLAND
/GRI/. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF 1" HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FAVOR WET WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.

THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES
WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY...THEN HEIGHTS RISE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHCS
FOR PCPN RETURN INTERMITTENTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
WAA AND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS TRENDING BLOCKY ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FM THE WEST COAST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE. ROUNDS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT KEPT PREVAILING VFR/MVFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 180000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER SRN CANADA WITH A
CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CO. MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING
THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE
SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
LOW-LVL FLOW.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED THRU THE FCST AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. SO
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG...PRIMARILY OVER
THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS COULD POP UP AT
ANY TIME...BUT NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED.

MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND THE CLUES ARE
IN SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT AN ARC OF STORMS TO FORM AND LIFT N-NE INTO
THE FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND COULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN SOME
SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS AND THERE WILL BE A DECREASING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SUBSEQUENT ARC OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SVR WX S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORNE KS.

AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT
WORST AND HVY RAIN. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID-MORNING SAT.

BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK AFTER THIS
ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY. THEN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER 15Z/SREF AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK UP TO GRAND ISLAND
/GRI/. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF 1" HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FAVOR WET WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.

THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES
WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY...THEN HEIGHTS RISE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHCS
FOR PCPN RETURN INTERMITTENTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
WAA AND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS TRENDING BLOCKY ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FM THE WEST COAST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE. ROUNDS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT KEPT PREVAILING VFR/MVFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 180000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER SRN CANADA WITH A
CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CO. MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING
THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE
SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
LOW-LVL FLOW.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED THRU THE FCST AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. SO
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG...PRIMARILY OVER
THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS COULD POP UP AT
ANY TIME...BUT NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED.

MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND THE CLUES ARE
IN SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT AN ARC OF STORMS TO FORM AND LIFT N-NE INTO
THE FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND COULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN SOME
SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS AND THERE WILL BE A DECREASING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SUBSEQUENT ARC OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SVR WX S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORNE KS.

AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT
WORST AND HVY RAIN. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID-MORNING SAT.

BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK AFTER THIS
ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY. THEN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER 15Z/SREF AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK UP TO GRAND ISLAND
/GRI/. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF 1" HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FAVOR WET WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.

THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES
WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY...THEN HEIGHTS RISE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHCS
FOR PCPN RETURN INTERMITTENTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
WAA AND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS TRENDING BLOCKY ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FM THE WEST COAST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE. ROUNDS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT KEPT PREVAILING VFR/MVFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 180000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER SRN CANADA WITH A
CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CO. MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING
THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE
SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
LOW-LVL FLOW.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED THRU THE FCST AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. SO
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG...PRIMARILY OVER
THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS COULD POP UP AT
ANY TIME...BUT NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED.

MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND THE CLUES ARE
IN SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT AN ARC OF STORMS TO FORM AND LIFT N-NE INTO
THE FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND COULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN SOME
SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS AND THERE WILL BE A DECREASING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SUBSEQUENT ARC OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SVR WX S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORNE KS.

AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT
WORST AND HVY RAIN. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID-MORNING SAT.

BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK AFTER THIS
ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY. THEN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER 15Z/SREF AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK UP TO GRAND ISLAND
/GRI/. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF 1" HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FAVOR WET WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.

THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES
WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY...THEN HEIGHTS RISE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHCS
FOR PCPN RETURN INTERMITTENTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
WAA AND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS TRENDING BLOCKY ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FM THE WEST COAST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE. ROUNDS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT KEPT PREVAILING VFR/MVFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KOAX 172321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN POINTING TO PCPN REDEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT OVER WRN KS/SWRN NEB NOSE OF LLVL JET/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WITH FORCING BEING FURTHER ENHANCED VIA STOUT 300K
UPGLIDE. MODELS PROG INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE THEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN REACHES THE WRN CWA EARLY SAT
MORNING THEN LIFTS THRU THE NRN CWA DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLD IN NATURE.

ADDITION PCPN LOOKS PROBABLE THEN SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ALONG A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALL IN PART TO
LARGE CUT OFF LOW THATS BEEN SITTING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE LAST
SEVERALS DAYS EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT BEGINS ITS EWD TREK.
AT THIS POINT SUSPECT THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SMALL IN NATURE...THUS
HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS DOWN WITH SLGT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SRN CWA.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE 500MB AXIS EAST OF THE CWA...NW FLOW SETTLES IN
ALOFT WITH CAA BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
AFTN HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

DECENT MIXING ON TUESDAY WILL HELP AFTN HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE LOW
60S...BUT METEOGRAMS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY CHILLY CONDITIONS RETURN
THEREAFTER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR PCPN...GFS/ECM/CMC ALL
FOR THE MOST PART HAVE QPF LATE IN THE PD MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SRN CWA ALONG AXIS OF MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THUS SEEMS REASONABLE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
SMALL POPS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

COMPLEX FORECAST BUT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MOSTLY SCATTERED
PCPN POTENTIAL. CONDITIONS ARE VFR CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT SOME
DETERIORATION OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON TSRA NOT OVERLY HIGH SO WILL AMEND AS
NEEDED. SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS BECOME MORE COMMON LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 172321
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
621 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN POINTING TO PCPN REDEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT OVER WRN KS/SWRN NEB NOSE OF LLVL JET/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WITH FORCING BEING FURTHER ENHANCED VIA STOUT 300K
UPGLIDE. MODELS PROG INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE THEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN REACHES THE WRN CWA EARLY SAT
MORNING THEN LIFTS THRU THE NRN CWA DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLD IN NATURE.

ADDITION PCPN LOOKS PROBABLE THEN SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ALONG A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALL IN PART TO
LARGE CUT OFF LOW THATS BEEN SITTING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE LAST
SEVERALS DAYS EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT BEGINS ITS EWD TREK.
AT THIS POINT SUSPECT THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SMALL IN NATURE...THUS
HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS DOWN WITH SLGT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SRN CWA.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE 500MB AXIS EAST OF THE CWA...NW FLOW SETTLES IN
ALOFT WITH CAA BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
AFTN HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

DECENT MIXING ON TUESDAY WILL HELP AFTN HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE LOW
60S...BUT METEOGRAMS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY CHILLY CONDITIONS RETURN
THEREAFTER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR PCPN...GFS/ECM/CMC ALL
FOR THE MOST PART HAVE QPF LATE IN THE PD MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SRN CWA ALONG AXIS OF MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THUS SEEMS REASONABLE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
SMALL POPS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

COMPLEX FORECAST BUT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO MOSTLY SCATTERED
PCPN POTENTIAL. CONDITIONS ARE VFR CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT SOME
DETERIORATION OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON TSRA NOT OVERLY HIGH SO WILL AMEND AS
NEEDED. SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS BECOME MORE COMMON LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KLBF 172017
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO VERY SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOME LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 10 KTS OR SO.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...TAYLOR







000
FXUS63 KLBF 172017
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS SEEN IN
IR. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A DRY SLOT PUSHING
NORTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA . LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO BIG BEND OF TEXAS ALONG THE
DRY LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY
MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS ALLOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THIN IN THAT AREA...AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE
TO SURFACE HEATING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
DECENT RAINFALL HOWEVER...AND ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH
OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ROTATE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO FAR...AREAS AROUND ONEILL AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WOULD BE WHERE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WOULD BE...BUT ALL AREAS WILL
HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
USED A BLEND WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON NAM IN THE MID TERM. SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN MOVED FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW AND DRY
LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IS DRY
SLOTTED. FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE TOWARDS NORTHWEST IN
DEFORMATION ZONE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO POPS AND QPF FIELDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING CHANGING TO
RW- AFTER MIDNIGHT CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAPAROUND
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG CAA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WE STAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA. AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO EJECT WAVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA MID WEEK THAT WILL INTERACT
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER AND
BRING SLIGHT RAINSHOWER CHANCES TO MAINLY SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO VERY SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOME LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 10 KTS OR SO.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...TAYLOR






000
FXUS63 KGID 172017
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AT TIMES THRU SAT NIGHT BUT WITH ONLY
LIMITED THREAT FOR SVR WX...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER SRN CANADA WITH A
CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CO. MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING
THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE
SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
LOW-LVL FLOW.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED THRU THE FCST AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. SO
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG...PRIMARILY OVER
THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS COULD POP UP AT
ANY TIME...BUT NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED.

MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND THE CLUES ARE
IN SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT AN ARC OF STORMS TO FORM AND LIFT N-NE INTO
THE FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND COULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN SOME
SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS AND THERE WILL BE A DECREASING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SUBSEQUENT ARC OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SVR WX S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORNE KS.

AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT
WORST AND HVY RAIN. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID-MORNING SAT.

BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK AFTER THIS
ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY. THEN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER 15Z/SREF AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK UP TO GRAND ISLAND
/GRI/. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF 1" HAIL.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FAVOR WET WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.

THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES
WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY...THEN HEIGHTS RISE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHCS
FOR PCPN RETURN INTERMITTENTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
WAA AND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS TRENDING BLOCKY ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FM THE WEST COAST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS
AND MVFR/IFR SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 21Z.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC TIMING FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SO
WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS...IF WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM
TRENDS. E WINDS 7-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS UNTIL 06Z. PROBABILITY FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR TSTMS IS HIGH...BUT PREFER TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF
UNTIL WE ARE SURE THEY DEVELOP. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING VSBYS/
CIGS ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z. ESE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR FOG/STRATUS EVENTUALLY LIFTS TO VFR CU BY 18Z.
SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 172017
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AT TIMES THRU SAT NIGHT BUT WITH ONLY
LIMITED THREAT FOR SVR WX...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ALOFT: THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WAS OVER SRN CANADA WITH A
CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING OVER CO. MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES WERE ORBITING
THE LOW AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO MODULATE
SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL THRU TOMORROW. THE LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY UNTIL TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...THE TROF MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
TOMORROW.

SURFACE: VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK LOW
PRES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
LOW-LVL FLOW.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY SLOT HAS PROGRESSED THRU THE FCST AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. SO
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH MLCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG...PRIMARILY OVER
THE S HALF OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS COULD POP UP AT
ANY TIME...BUT NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED.

MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN KS AND THE CLUES ARE
IN SAT IMAGERY. EXPECT AN ARC OF STORMS TO FORM AND LIFT N-NE INTO
THE FCST AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND COULD
COMPENSATE FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS PROBABLY RESULTS IN SOME
SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS AND THERE WILL BE A DECREASING WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SUBSEQUENT ARC OF STORMS TO PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL SVR WX S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORNE KS.

AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT
WORST AND HVY RAIN. USED THE 06Z/12Z NAM TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ARW/NMM WRF.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID-MORNING SAT.

BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK AFTER THIS
ARC OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY. THEN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. MLCAPE
IS NOT FCST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG PER 15Z/SREF AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. SPC HAS A SLGT RISK UP TO GRAND ISLAND
/GRI/. THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF 1" HAIL.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FAVOR WET WEATHER WITH RAIN AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PCPN
WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MIXING DEEPENS TO JUST BELOW H7 WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN.

THE PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL ON SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASES
WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR ON MONDAY...THEN HEIGHTS RISE
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN RIDGE MIGRATES
EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHCS
FOR PCPN RETURN INTERMITTENTLY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
WAA AND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN IS TRENDING BLOCKY ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN TROUGHS FM THE WEST COAST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS
AND MVFR/IFR SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 21Z.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC TIMING FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SO
WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS...IF WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM
TRENDS. E WINDS 7-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS UNTIL 06Z. PROBABILITY FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR TSTMS IS HIGH...BUT PREFER TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF
UNTIL WE ARE SURE THEY DEVELOP. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING VSBYS/
CIGS ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z. ESE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR FOG/STRATUS EVENTUALLY LIFTS TO VFR CU BY 18Z.
SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KOAX 172011
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
311 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN POINTING TO PCPN REDEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT OVER WRN KS/SWRN NEB NOSE OF LLVL JET/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WITH FORCING BEING FURTHER ENHANCED VIA STOUT 300K
UPGLIDE. MODELS PROG INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE THEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN REACHES THE WRN CWA EARLY SAT
MORNING THEN LIFTS THRU THE NRN CWA DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLD IN NATURE.

ADDITION PCPN LOOKS PROBABLE THEN SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ALONG A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALL IN PART TO
LARGE CUT OFF LOW THATS BEEN SITTING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE LAST
SEVERALS DAYS EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT BEGINS ITS EWD TREK.
AT THIS POINT SUSPECT THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SMALL IN NATURE...THUS
HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS DOWN WITH SLGT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SRN CWA.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE 500MB AXIS EAST OF THE CWA...NW FLOW SETTLES IN
ALOFT WITH CAA BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
AFTN HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

DECENT MIXING ON TUESDAY WILL HELP AFTN HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE LOW
60S...BUT METEOGRAMS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY CHILLY CONDITIONS RETURN
THEREAFTER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR PCPN...GFS/ECM/CMC ALL
FOR THE MOST PART HAVE QPF LATE IN THE PD MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SRN CWA ALONG AXIS OF MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THUS SEEMS REASONABLE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
SMALL POPS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...WITH CEILINGS AROUND
5-8KFT. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BRING AT LEAST A VICINITY THREAT TO KOFK AND KLNK...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL AFTER 02Z. ANY SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF SITES
MAY BRING THUNDER...AS WELL AS VIS AND POSSIBLY EVEN CIGS INTO
MVFR RANGE. HAVE JUST MENTIONED THE SHOWERS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS
FOR NOW...WITH TIME YET TO MODIFY AS TIMING OF SHOWERS BECOMES
MORE EVIDENT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 172011
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
311 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN POINTING TO PCPN REDEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT OVER WRN KS/SWRN NEB NOSE OF LLVL JET/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WITH FORCING BEING FURTHER ENHANCED VIA STOUT 300K
UPGLIDE. MODELS PROG INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE THEN OVERNIGHT
BEFORE THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN REACHES THE WRN CWA EARLY SAT
MORNING THEN LIFTS THRU THE NRN CWA DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...EXPECT ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLD IN NATURE.

ADDITION PCPN LOOKS PROBABLE THEN SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ALONG A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALL IN PART TO
LARGE CUT OFF LOW THATS BEEN SITTING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THE LAST
SEVERALS DAYS EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT BEGINS ITS EWD TREK.
AT THIS POINT SUSPECT THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SMALL IN NATURE...THUS
HAVE DECIDED TO ADJUST POPS DOWN WITH SLGT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
SRN CWA.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE 500MB AXIS EAST OF THE CWA...NW FLOW SETTLES IN
ALOFT WITH CAA BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
AFTN HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

DECENT MIXING ON TUESDAY WILL HELP AFTN HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE LOW
60S...BUT METEOGRAMS ARE SHOWING RELATIVELY CHILLY CONDITIONS RETURN
THEREAFTER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR PCPN...GFS/ECM/CMC ALL
FOR THE MOST PART HAVE QPF LATE IN THE PD MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SRN CWA ALONG AXIS OF MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THUS SEEMS REASONABLE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN
SMALL POPS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...WITH CEILINGS AROUND
5-8KFT. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BRING AT LEAST A VICINITY THREAT TO KOFK AND KLNK...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL AFTER 02Z. ANY SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF SITES
MAY BRING THUNDER...AS WELL AS VIS AND POSSIBLY EVEN CIGS INTO
MVFR RANGE. HAVE JUST MENTIONED THE SHOWERS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS
FOR NOW...WITH TIME YET TO MODIFY AS TIMING OF SHOWERS BECOMES
MORE EVIDENT.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KLBF 171903
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
203 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
TX PNHDL INTO WRN CO. SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS SWRN INTO WEST
CENTRAL NEBR WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS IS
TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S EXCEPT MID 40S
ERN PNHDL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY IN NWRN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN TURN
WESTWARD INTO WRN NEBR AND THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND NERN
COLORADO. PWAT VALUES 0.75 INCH TO NEAR AND INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT VALUES OF 175 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL.

FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS IN SWRN NEBR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN NCTRL NEBR.
EXPECTING A DECREASE OR END TO SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO SWRN
NEBR...THEN REDEVELOPMENT AS THE NOSE OF A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NWRN KS/NERN CO/SWRN NEBR BY
21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KTS
ALONG WITH ML CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME AFTERNOON SUN POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS TO HELP DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE. APPEARS THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 21Z INITIATION TIME THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE FA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. DIFFERENCES LIE IN LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...THE NERN HALF OF FA IS
MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE HIGHER QPFS NEAR A HALF INCH WHILE
SWRN AREAS A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH. LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NCTRL. MODELS INDICATE
A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO SWRN NEBR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH LOWING TO 40 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE EFFECTS FROM THE SLOW MOVING
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LOCATION OF THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW...NORTHEASTERN CO...SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH VARIES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST WITH THE LOW...WHILE THE NAM IS THE WEAKEST.
THE ACTUALLY STRENGTH WILL PLAY A BIG PART INTO THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY SW ZONES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME SW CONUS/PACIFIC DRY AIR STARTING TO GET
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. THE STRONGER GFS BRINGS THE DRY SLOW WELL
INTO THE CWA BY SATURDAY LATE MORNING. THE NAM JUST NOSES THE DRY
AIR INTO SW NEB. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS OF
SW NEB INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE DRY
SLOT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO END UP WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A FEW SPRINKLES HERE OR THERE...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT DRY JUST YET.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS PUSH ACROSS KS.
MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE NORTHERN
LOW EVENTUALLY WILL ABSORB THE SOUTHERN LOW AS WE GET INTO THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE WRAP AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY END BY SUN MID DAY. COOLER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT SOME GUSTY N/NW WINDS. AFTER 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR SAT...TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SUNDAY.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS. THIS LEAVES US BENEATH NW FLOW AND A
FEW WEAK CLIPPERS TO ADD SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO VERY SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOME LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 10 KTS OR SO.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR






000
FXUS63 KLBF 171903
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
203 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
TX PNHDL INTO WRN CO. SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS SWRN INTO WEST
CENTRAL NEBR WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS IS
TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S EXCEPT MID 40S
ERN PNHDL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY IN NWRN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN TURN
WESTWARD INTO WRN NEBR AND THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND NERN
COLORADO. PWAT VALUES 0.75 INCH TO NEAR AND INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT VALUES OF 175 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL.

FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS IN SWRN NEBR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN NCTRL NEBR.
EXPECTING A DECREASE OR END TO SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO SWRN
NEBR...THEN REDEVELOPMENT AS THE NOSE OF A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NWRN KS/NERN CO/SWRN NEBR BY
21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KTS
ALONG WITH ML CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME AFTERNOON SUN POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS TO HELP DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE. APPEARS THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 21Z INITIATION TIME THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE FA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. DIFFERENCES LIE IN LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...THE NERN HALF OF FA IS
MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE HIGHER QPFS NEAR A HALF INCH WHILE
SWRN AREAS A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH. LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NCTRL. MODELS INDICATE
A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO SWRN NEBR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH LOWING TO 40 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE EFFECTS FROM THE SLOW MOVING
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LOCATION OF THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW...NORTHEASTERN CO...SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH VARIES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST WITH THE LOW...WHILE THE NAM IS THE WEAKEST.
THE ACTUALLY STRENGTH WILL PLAY A BIG PART INTO THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY SW ZONES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME SW CONUS/PACIFIC DRY AIR STARTING TO GET
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. THE STRONGER GFS BRINGS THE DRY SLOW WELL
INTO THE CWA BY SATURDAY LATE MORNING. THE NAM JUST NOSES THE DRY
AIR INTO SW NEB. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS OF
SW NEB INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE DRY
SLOT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO END UP WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A FEW SPRINKLES HERE OR THERE...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT DRY JUST YET.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS PUSH ACROSS KS.
MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE NORTHERN
LOW EVENTUALLY WILL ABSORB THE SOUTHERN LOW AS WE GET INTO THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE WRAP AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY END BY SUN MID DAY. COOLER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT SOME GUSTY N/NW WINDS. AFTER 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR SAT...TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SUNDAY.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS. THIS LEAVES US BENEATH NW FLOW AND A
FEW WEAK CLIPPERS TO ADD SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO VERY SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOME LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 10 KTS OR SO.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR






000
FXUS63 KLBF 171903
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
203 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
TX PNHDL INTO WRN CO. SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS SWRN INTO WEST
CENTRAL NEBR WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS IS
TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S EXCEPT MID 40S
ERN PNHDL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY IN NWRN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN TURN
WESTWARD INTO WRN NEBR AND THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND NERN
COLORADO. PWAT VALUES 0.75 INCH TO NEAR AND INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT VALUES OF 175 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL.

FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS IN SWRN NEBR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN NCTRL NEBR.
EXPECTING A DECREASE OR END TO SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO SWRN
NEBR...THEN REDEVELOPMENT AS THE NOSE OF A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NWRN KS/NERN CO/SWRN NEBR BY
21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KTS
ALONG WITH ML CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME AFTERNOON SUN POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS TO HELP DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE. APPEARS THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 21Z INITIATION TIME THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE FA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. DIFFERENCES LIE IN LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...THE NERN HALF OF FA IS
MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE HIGHER QPFS NEAR A HALF INCH WHILE
SWRN AREAS A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH. LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NCTRL. MODELS INDICATE
A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO SWRN NEBR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH LOWING TO 40 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE EFFECTS FROM THE SLOW MOVING
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LOCATION OF THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW...NORTHEASTERN CO...SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH VARIES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST WITH THE LOW...WHILE THE NAM IS THE WEAKEST.
THE ACTUALLY STRENGTH WILL PLAY A BIG PART INTO THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY SW ZONES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME SW CONUS/PACIFIC DRY AIR STARTING TO GET
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. THE STRONGER GFS BRINGS THE DRY SLOW WELL
INTO THE CWA BY SATURDAY LATE MORNING. THE NAM JUST NOSES THE DRY
AIR INTO SW NEB. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS OF
SW NEB INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE DRY
SLOT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO END UP WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A FEW SPRINKLES HERE OR THERE...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT DRY JUST YET.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS PUSH ACROSS KS.
MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE NORTHERN
LOW EVENTUALLY WILL ABSORB THE SOUTHERN LOW AS WE GET INTO THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE WRAP AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY END BY SUN MID DAY. COOLER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT SOME GUSTY N/NW WINDS. AFTER 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR SAT...TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SUNDAY.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS. THIS LEAVES US BENEATH NW FLOW AND A
FEW WEAK CLIPPERS TO ADD SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO VERY SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOME LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 10 KTS OR SO.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR






000
FXUS63 KLBF 171903
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
203 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
TX PNHDL INTO WRN CO. SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS SWRN INTO WEST
CENTRAL NEBR WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS IS
TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S EXCEPT MID 40S
ERN PNHDL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY IN NWRN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN TURN
WESTWARD INTO WRN NEBR AND THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND NERN
COLORADO. PWAT VALUES 0.75 INCH TO NEAR AND INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT VALUES OF 175 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL.

FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS IN SWRN NEBR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN NCTRL NEBR.
EXPECTING A DECREASE OR END TO SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO SWRN
NEBR...THEN REDEVELOPMENT AS THE NOSE OF A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NWRN KS/NERN CO/SWRN NEBR BY
21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KTS
ALONG WITH ML CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME AFTERNOON SUN POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS TO HELP DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE. APPEARS THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 21Z INITIATION TIME THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE FA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. DIFFERENCES LIE IN LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...THE NERN HALF OF FA IS
MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE HIGHER QPFS NEAR A HALF INCH WHILE
SWRN AREAS A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH. LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NCTRL. MODELS INDICATE
A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO SWRN NEBR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH LOWING TO 40 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE EFFECTS FROM THE SLOW MOVING
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LOCATION OF THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW...NORTHEASTERN CO...SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH VARIES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST WITH THE LOW...WHILE THE NAM IS THE WEAKEST.
THE ACTUALLY STRENGTH WILL PLAY A BIG PART INTO THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY SW ZONES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME SW CONUS/PACIFIC DRY AIR STARTING TO GET
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. THE STRONGER GFS BRINGS THE DRY SLOW WELL
INTO THE CWA BY SATURDAY LATE MORNING. THE NAM JUST NOSES THE DRY
AIR INTO SW NEB. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS OF
SW NEB INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE DRY
SLOT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO END UP WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A FEW SPRINKLES HERE OR THERE...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT DRY JUST YET.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS PUSH ACROSS KS.
MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE NORTHERN
LOW EVENTUALLY WILL ABSORB THE SOUTHERN LOW AS WE GET INTO THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE WRAP AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY END BY SUN MID DAY. COOLER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT SOME GUSTY N/NW WINDS. AFTER 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR SAT...TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SUNDAY.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS. THIS LEAVES US BENEATH NW FLOW AND A
FEW WEAK CLIPPERS TO ADD SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO VERY SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOME LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 10 KTS OR SO.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR






000
FXUS63 KGID 171804 AAA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
104 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT /LOWER THETA-E
AIR ALOFT/ LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THIS IS MORE DRYING ALOFT THAN COOLING. SO EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THERE ARE NO EASY CLUES AS TO
WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST AN
ARC ACROSS WRN KS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT N INTO THE FCST AREA
THIS EVE/TONIGHT.

THE 12Z NMM/ARW WRF LEND SUPPORT TO THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE
09Z SREF QPF PROBABILITIES.

WE AGREE WITH SPC ASSESSMENT OF SVR POTENTIAL. IT WILL MAINLY BE
FOCUSED SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF
THIS COULD MAINTAIN ITS POTENCY INTO FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA /S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORN KS/.

PLEASE SEE 1258 PM MESO DISCUSSION FROM SPC.

DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR...MLCAPE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 1500
J/KG. THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH STORMS TO ALLOW
FOR INTERACTIONS AND MERGERS. SO WHILE SOME SUPERCELLS MAY BE
EMBEDDED IN THE INTIAL DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES
IN OUR FCST AREA. SO SVR THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BUT NOT ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS
AND MVFR/IFR SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 21Z.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC TIMING FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SO
WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS...IF WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM
TRENDS. E WINDS 7-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS UNTIL 06Z. PROBABILITY FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR TSTMS IS HIGH...BUT PREFER TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF
UNTIL WE ARE SURE THEY DEVELOP. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING VSBYS/
CIGS ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z. ESE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR FOG/STRATUS EVENTUALLY LIFTS TO VFR CU BY 18Z.
SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 171804 AAA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
104 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT /LOWER THETA-E
AIR ALOFT/ LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THIS IS MORE DRYING ALOFT THAN COOLING. SO EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THERE ARE NO EASY CLUES AS TO
WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST AN
ARC ACROSS WRN KS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT N INTO THE FCST AREA
THIS EVE/TONIGHT.

THE 12Z NMM/ARW WRF LEND SUPPORT TO THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE
09Z SREF QPF PROBABILITIES.

WE AGREE WITH SPC ASSESSMENT OF SVR POTENTIAL. IT WILL MAINLY BE
FOCUSED SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF
THIS COULD MAINTAIN ITS POTENCY INTO FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA /S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORN KS/.

PLEASE SEE 1258 PM MESO DISCUSSION FROM SPC.

DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR...MLCAPE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 1500
J/KG. THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH STORMS TO ALLOW
FOR INTERACTIONS AND MERGERS. SO WHILE SOME SUPERCELLS MAY BE
EMBEDDED IN THE INTIAL DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES
IN OUR FCST AREA. SO SVR THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BUT NOT ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS
AND MVFR/IFR SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 21Z.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC TIMING FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SO
WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS...IF WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM
TRENDS. E WINDS 7-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS UNTIL 06Z. PROBABILITY FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR TSTMS IS HIGH...BUT PREFER TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF
UNTIL WE ARE SURE THEY DEVELOP. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING VSBYS/
CIGS ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z. ESE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR FOG/STRATUS EVENTUALLY LIFTS TO VFR CU BY 18Z.
SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 171804 AAA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
104 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT /LOWER THETA-E
AIR ALOFT/ LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THIS IS MORE DRYING ALOFT THAN COOLING. SO EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THERE ARE NO EASY CLUES AS TO
WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST AN
ARC ACROSS WRN KS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT N INTO THE FCST AREA
THIS EVE/TONIGHT.

THE 12Z NMM/ARW WRF LEND SUPPORT TO THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE
09Z SREF QPF PROBABILITIES.

WE AGREE WITH SPC ASSESSMENT OF SVR POTENTIAL. IT WILL MAINLY BE
FOCUSED SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF
THIS COULD MAINTAIN ITS POTENCY INTO FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA /S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORN KS/.

PLEASE SEE 1258 PM MESO DISCUSSION FROM SPC.

DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR...MLCAPE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 1500
J/KG. THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH STORMS TO ALLOW
FOR INTERACTIONS AND MERGERS. SO WHILE SOME SUPERCELLS MAY BE
EMBEDDED IN THE INTIAL DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES
IN OUR FCST AREA. SO SVR THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BUT NOT ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS
AND MVFR/IFR SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 21Z.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC TIMING FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SO
WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS...IF WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM
TRENDS. E WINDS 7-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS UNTIL 06Z. PROBABILITY FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR TSTMS IS HIGH...BUT PREFER TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF
UNTIL WE ARE SURE THEY DEVELOP. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING VSBYS/
CIGS ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z. ESE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR FOG/STRATUS EVENTUALLY LIFTS TO VFR CU BY 18Z.
SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 171804 AAA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
104 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT /LOWER THETA-E
AIR ALOFT/ LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THIS IS MORE DRYING ALOFT THAN COOLING. SO EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THERE ARE NO EASY CLUES AS TO
WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST AN
ARC ACROSS WRN KS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT N INTO THE FCST AREA
THIS EVE/TONIGHT.

THE 12Z NMM/ARW WRF LEND SUPPORT TO THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE
09Z SREF QPF PROBABILITIES.

WE AGREE WITH SPC ASSESSMENT OF SVR POTENTIAL. IT WILL MAINLY BE
FOCUSED SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF
THIS COULD MAINTAIN ITS POTENCY INTO FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA /S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORN KS/.

PLEASE SEE 1258 PM MESO DISCUSSION FROM SPC.

DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR...MLCAPE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 1500
J/KG. THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH STORMS TO ALLOW
FOR INTERACTIONS AND MERGERS. SO WHILE SOME SUPERCELLS MAY BE
EMBEDDED IN THE INTIAL DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES
IN OUR FCST AREA. SO SVR THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BUT NOT ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS
AND MVFR/IFR SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 21Z.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC TIMING FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SO
WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS...IF WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM
TRENDS. E WINDS 7-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS UNTIL 06Z. PROBABILITY FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR TSTMS IS HIGH...BUT PREFER TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF
UNTIL WE ARE SURE THEY DEVELOP. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING VSBYS/
CIGS ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z. ESE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR FOG/STRATUS EVENTUALLY LIFTS TO VFR CU BY 18Z.
SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 171801
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT /LOWER THETA-E
AIR ALOFT/ LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THIS IS MORE DRYING ALOFT THAN COOLING. SO EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THERE ARE NO EASY CLUES AS TO
WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST AN
ARC ACROSS WRN KS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT N INTO THE FCST AREA
THIS EVE/TONIGHT.

THE 12Z NMM/ARW WRF LEND SUPPORT TO THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE
09Z SREF QPF PROBABILITIES.

WE AGREE WITH SPC ASSESSMENT OF SVR POTENTIAL. IT WILL MAINLY BE
FOCUSED SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF
THIS COULD MAINTAIN ITS POTENCY INTO FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA /S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORN KS/.

PLEASE SEE 1258 PM MESO DISCUSSION FROM SPC.

DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR...MLCAPE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 1500
J/KG. SO SVR THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BUT NOT ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS
AND MVFR/IFR SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 21Z.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC TIMING FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SO
WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS...IF WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM
TRENDS. E WINDS 7-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS UNTIL 06Z. PROBABILITY FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR TSTMS IS HIGH...BUT PREFER TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF
UNTIL WE ARE SURE THEY DEVELOP. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING VSBYS/
CIGS ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z. ESE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR FOG/STRATUS EVENTUALLY LIFTS TO VFR CU BY 18Z.
SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KGID 171801
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT /LOWER THETA-E
AIR ALOFT/ LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THIS IS MORE DRYING ALOFT THAN COOLING. SO EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THERE ARE NO EASY CLUES AS TO
WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST AN
ARC ACROSS WRN KS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT N INTO THE FCST AREA
THIS EVE/TONIGHT.

THE 12Z NMM/ARW WRF LEND SUPPORT TO THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE
09Z SREF QPF PROBABILITIES.

WE AGREE WITH SPC ASSESSMENT OF SVR POTENTIAL. IT WILL MAINLY BE
FOCUSED SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF
THIS COULD MAINTAIN ITS POTENCY INTO FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA /S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORN KS/.

PLEASE SEE 1258 PM MESO DISCUSSION FROM SPC.

DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR...MLCAPE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 1500
J/KG. SO SVR THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BUT NOT ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS
AND MVFR/IFR SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 21Z.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC TIMING FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SO
WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS...IF WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM
TRENDS. E WINDS 7-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS UNTIL 06Z. PROBABILITY FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR TSTMS IS HIGH...BUT PREFER TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF
UNTIL WE ARE SURE THEY DEVELOP. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING VSBYS/
CIGS ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z. ESE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR FOG/STRATUS EVENTUALLY LIFTS TO VFR CU BY 18Z.
SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




000
FXUS63 KGID 171801
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT /LOWER THETA-E
AIR ALOFT/ LIFTING N ACROSS THE FCST AREA. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THIS IS MORE DRYING ALOFT THAN COOLING. SO EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THERE ARE NO EASY CLUES AS TO
WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST AN
ARC ACROSS WRN KS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT N INTO THE FCST AREA
THIS EVE/TONIGHT.

THE 12Z NMM/ARW WRF LEND SUPPORT TO THIS SCENARIO ALONG WITH THE
09Z SREF QPF PROBABILITIES.

WE AGREE WITH SPC ASSESSMENT OF SVR POTENTIAL. IT WILL MAINLY BE
FOCUSED SW OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF
THIS COULD MAINTAIN ITS POTENCY INTO FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA /S OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY NE TO OSBORN KS/.

PLEASE SEE 1258 PM MESO DISCUSSION FROM SPC.

DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR...MLCAPE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 1500
J/KG. SO SVR THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BUT NOT ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS...BUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS
AND MVFR/IFR SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 21Z.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC TIMING FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SO
WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS...IF WE CAN GET A HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM
TRENDS. E WINDS 7-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: VARIABLE MOSTLY VFR CIGS UNTIL 06Z. PROBABILITY FOR A
PERIOD OF IFR TSTMS IS HIGH...BUT PREFER TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF
UNTIL WE ARE SURE THEY DEVELOP. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING VSBYS/
CIGS ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z. ESE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: IFR FOG/STRATUS EVENTUALLY LIFTS TO VFR CU BY 18Z.
SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



000
FXUS63 KOAX 171703
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1203 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIPITATION ENDING SUNDAY.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PIVOTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FROM KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP
TODAY WITH EASTERN AREAS HAVING TO WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR
BETTER POPS AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A BEATRICE-LINCOLN-
COLUMBUS ARC BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER IN THE EAST HALF. THIS
SPLIT SHOULD SEE LOWER TEMPS AROUND 70 CONFINED TO THE WEST WITH MID
70S IN THE EAST WHERE SOME PERIODS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO
COLORADO BY 00Z TONIGHT.  THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 06Z.  THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE H5 ENERGY TO THE NORTH
IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE CLOSED LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
OKLAHOMA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THESE PERIODS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS WEEKEND.
THE INSTABILITY AXIS DOES LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN H85 BOUNDARY IN
THIS REGION THAT LIFTS NORTH AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOME .25-.5 INCH RAINS FELL ALONG WITH PEA
TO DIME- SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS IN
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 200J/KG FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A LITTLE
BETTER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 500J/KG SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD RANGE FROM .5 TO 1 INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO IOWA AND EXTEND IN A LARGE AREA
FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA
AND THE DAKOTA.  THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS DEVELOPS OVER IOWA
INTO MINNESOTA AND EVENTUALLY WI.  THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE GFS/NAM/EC ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A FRONT OVER FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EAST OF THE AREA BY
18Z. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THERE
WILL STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORESO IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT TURN WINDY 15 TO 25KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT
H85. THE MOISTURE DRIES OUT TO .5-.75 PWAT BY 00Z AND 0.25 OF AN
INCH PWAT BY 12Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...SHIFTS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...AND LINGERS THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH LOW...AND THIS ALLOWS A STORM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE EC IS MAINLY DRY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...WITH CEILINGS AROUND
5-8KFT. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BRING AT LEAST A VICINITY THREAT TO KOFK AND KLNK...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL AFTER 02Z. ANY SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF SITES
MAY BRING THUNDER...AS WELL AS VIS AND POSSIBLY EVEN CIGS INTO
MVFR RANGE. HAVE JUST MENTIONED THE SHOWERS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS
FOR NOW...WITH TIME YET TO MODIFY AS TIMING OF SHOWERS BECOMES
MORE EVIDENT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 171703
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1203 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIPITATION ENDING SUNDAY.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PIVOTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FROM KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP
TODAY WITH EASTERN AREAS HAVING TO WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR
BETTER POPS AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A BEATRICE-LINCOLN-
COLUMBUS ARC BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER IN THE EAST HALF. THIS
SPLIT SHOULD SEE LOWER TEMPS AROUND 70 CONFINED TO THE WEST WITH MID
70S IN THE EAST WHERE SOME PERIODS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO
COLORADO BY 00Z TONIGHT.  THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 06Z.  THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE H5 ENERGY TO THE NORTH
IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE CLOSED LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
OKLAHOMA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THESE PERIODS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS WEEKEND.
THE INSTABILITY AXIS DOES LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN H85 BOUNDARY IN
THIS REGION THAT LIFTS NORTH AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOME .25-.5 INCH RAINS FELL ALONG WITH PEA
TO DIME- SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS IN
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 200J/KG FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A LITTLE
BETTER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 500J/KG SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD RANGE FROM .5 TO 1 INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO IOWA AND EXTEND IN A LARGE AREA
FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA
AND THE DAKOTA.  THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS DEVELOPS OVER IOWA
INTO MINNESOTA AND EVENTUALLY WI.  THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE GFS/NAM/EC ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A FRONT OVER FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EAST OF THE AREA BY
18Z. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THERE
WILL STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORESO IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT TURN WINDY 15 TO 25KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT
H85. THE MOISTURE DRIES OUT TO .5-.75 PWAT BY 00Z AND 0.25 OF AN
INCH PWAT BY 12Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...SHIFTS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...AND LINGERS THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH LOW...AND THIS ALLOWS A STORM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE EC IS MAINLY DRY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...WITH CEILINGS AROUND
5-8KFT. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BRING AT LEAST A VICINITY THREAT TO KOFK AND KLNK...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL AFTER 02Z. ANY SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF SITES
MAY BRING THUNDER...AS WELL AS VIS AND POSSIBLY EVEN CIGS INTO
MVFR RANGE. HAVE JUST MENTIONED THE SHOWERS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS
FOR NOW...WITH TIME YET TO MODIFY AS TIMING OF SHOWERS BECOMES
MORE EVIDENT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 171703
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1203 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIPITATION ENDING SUNDAY.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PIVOTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FROM KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP
TODAY WITH EASTERN AREAS HAVING TO WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR
BETTER POPS AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A BEATRICE-LINCOLN-
COLUMBUS ARC BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER IN THE EAST HALF. THIS
SPLIT SHOULD SEE LOWER TEMPS AROUND 70 CONFINED TO THE WEST WITH MID
70S IN THE EAST WHERE SOME PERIODS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO
COLORADO BY 00Z TONIGHT.  THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 06Z.  THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE H5 ENERGY TO THE NORTH
IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE CLOSED LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
OKLAHOMA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THESE PERIODS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS WEEKEND.
THE INSTABILITY AXIS DOES LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN H85 BOUNDARY IN
THIS REGION THAT LIFTS NORTH AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOME .25-.5 INCH RAINS FELL ALONG WITH PEA
TO DIME- SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS IN
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 200J/KG FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A LITTLE
BETTER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 500J/KG SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD RANGE FROM .5 TO 1 INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO IOWA AND EXTEND IN A LARGE AREA
FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA
AND THE DAKOTA.  THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS DEVELOPS OVER IOWA
INTO MINNESOTA AND EVENTUALLY WI.  THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE GFS/NAM/EC ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A FRONT OVER FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EAST OF THE AREA BY
18Z. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THERE
WILL STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORESO IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT TURN WINDY 15 TO 25KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT
H85. THE MOISTURE DRIES OUT TO .5-.75 PWAT BY 00Z AND 0.25 OF AN
INCH PWAT BY 12Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...SHIFTS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...AND LINGERS THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH LOW...AND THIS ALLOWS A STORM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE EC IS MAINLY DRY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...WITH CEILINGS AROUND
5-8KFT. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BRING AT LEAST A VICINITY THREAT TO KOFK AND KLNK...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL AFTER 02Z. ANY SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF SITES
MAY BRING THUNDER...AS WELL AS VIS AND POSSIBLY EVEN CIGS INTO
MVFR RANGE. HAVE JUST MENTIONED THE SHOWERS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS
FOR NOW...WITH TIME YET TO MODIFY AS TIMING OF SHOWERS BECOMES
MORE EVIDENT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 171703
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1203 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIPITATION ENDING SUNDAY.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PIVOTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FROM KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP
TODAY WITH EASTERN AREAS HAVING TO WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR
BETTER POPS AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A BEATRICE-LINCOLN-
COLUMBUS ARC BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER IN THE EAST HALF. THIS
SPLIT SHOULD SEE LOWER TEMPS AROUND 70 CONFINED TO THE WEST WITH MID
70S IN THE EAST WHERE SOME PERIODS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO
COLORADO BY 00Z TONIGHT.  THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 06Z.  THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE H5 ENERGY TO THE NORTH
IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE CLOSED LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
OKLAHOMA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THESE PERIODS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS WEEKEND.
THE INSTABILITY AXIS DOES LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN H85 BOUNDARY IN
THIS REGION THAT LIFTS NORTH AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOME .25-.5 INCH RAINS FELL ALONG WITH PEA
TO DIME- SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS IN
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 200J/KG FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A LITTLE
BETTER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 500J/KG SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD RANGE FROM .5 TO 1 INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO IOWA AND EXTEND IN A LARGE AREA
FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA
AND THE DAKOTA.  THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS DEVELOPS OVER IOWA
INTO MINNESOTA AND EVENTUALLY WI.  THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE GFS/NAM/EC ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A FRONT OVER FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EAST OF THE AREA BY
18Z. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THERE
WILL STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORESO IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT TURN WINDY 15 TO 25KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT
H85. THE MOISTURE DRIES OUT TO .5-.75 PWAT BY 00Z AND 0.25 OF AN
INCH PWAT BY 12Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...SHIFTS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...AND LINGERS THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH LOW...AND THIS ALLOWS A STORM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE EC IS MAINLY DRY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...WITH CEILINGS AROUND
5-8KFT. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BRING AT LEAST A VICINITY THREAT TO KOFK AND KLNK...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL AFTER 02Z. ANY SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF SITES
MAY BRING THUNDER...AS WELL AS VIS AND POSSIBLY EVEN CIGS INTO
MVFR RANGE. HAVE JUST MENTIONED THE SHOWERS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS
FOR NOW...WITH TIME YET TO MODIFY AS TIMING OF SHOWERS BECOMES
MORE EVIDENT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KOAX 171703
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1203 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIPITATION ENDING SUNDAY.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PIVOTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FROM KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP
TODAY WITH EASTERN AREAS HAVING TO WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR
BETTER POPS AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A BEATRICE-LINCOLN-
COLUMBUS ARC BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER IN THE EAST HALF. THIS
SPLIT SHOULD SEE LOWER TEMPS AROUND 70 CONFINED TO THE WEST WITH MID
70S IN THE EAST WHERE SOME PERIODS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO
COLORADO BY 00Z TONIGHT.  THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 06Z.  THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE H5 ENERGY TO THE NORTH
IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE CLOSED LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
OKLAHOMA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THESE PERIODS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS WEEKEND.
THE INSTABILITY AXIS DOES LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN H85 BOUNDARY IN
THIS REGION THAT LIFTS NORTH AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOME .25-.5 INCH RAINS FELL ALONG WITH PEA
TO DIME- SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS IN
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 200J/KG FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A LITTLE
BETTER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 500J/KG SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD RANGE FROM .5 TO 1 INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO IOWA AND EXTEND IN A LARGE AREA
FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA
AND THE DAKOTA.  THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS DEVELOPS OVER IOWA
INTO MINNESOTA AND EVENTUALLY WI.  THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE GFS/NAM/EC ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A FRONT OVER FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EAST OF THE AREA BY
18Z. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THERE
WILL STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORESO IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT TURN WINDY 15 TO 25KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT
H85. THE MOISTURE DRIES OUT TO .5-.75 PWAT BY 00Z AND 0.25 OF AN
INCH PWAT BY 12Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...SHIFTS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...AND LINGERS THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH LOW...AND THIS ALLOWS A STORM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE EC IS MAINLY DRY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...WITH CEILINGS AROUND
5-8KFT. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BRING AT LEAST A VICINITY THREAT TO KOFK AND KLNK...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL AFTER 02Z. ANY SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF SITES
MAY BRING THUNDER...AS WELL AS VIS AND POSSIBLY EVEN CIGS INTO
MVFR RANGE. HAVE JUST MENTIONED THE SHOWERS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS
FOR NOW...WITH TIME YET TO MODIFY AS TIMING OF SHOWERS BECOMES
MORE EVIDENT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MAYES



000
FXUS63 KOAX 171703
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1203 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIPITATION ENDING SUNDAY.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PIVOTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FROM KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP
TODAY WITH EASTERN AREAS HAVING TO WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR
BETTER POPS AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A BEATRICE-LINCOLN-
COLUMBUS ARC BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER IN THE EAST HALF. THIS
SPLIT SHOULD SEE LOWER TEMPS AROUND 70 CONFINED TO THE WEST WITH MID
70S IN THE EAST WHERE SOME PERIODS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO
COLORADO BY 00Z TONIGHT.  THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 06Z.  THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE H5 ENERGY TO THE NORTH
IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE CLOSED LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
OKLAHOMA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THESE PERIODS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS WEEKEND.
THE INSTABILITY AXIS DOES LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN H85 BOUNDARY IN
THIS REGION THAT LIFTS NORTH AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOME .25-.5 INCH RAINS FELL ALONG WITH PEA
TO DIME- SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS IN
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 200J/KG FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A LITTLE
BETTER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 500J/KG SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD RANGE FROM .5 TO 1 INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO IOWA AND EXTEND IN A LARGE AREA
FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA
AND THE DAKOTA.  THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS DEVELOPS OVER IOWA
INTO MINNESOTA AND EVENTUALLY WI.  THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE GFS/NAM/EC ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A FRONT OVER FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EAST OF THE AREA BY
18Z. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THERE
WILL STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORESO IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT TURN WINDY 15 TO 25KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT
H85. THE MOISTURE DRIES OUT TO .5-.75 PWAT BY 00Z AND 0.25 OF AN
INCH PWAT BY 12Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...SHIFTS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...AND LINGERS THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH LOW...AND THIS ALLOWS A STORM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE EC IS MAINLY DRY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...WITH CEILINGS AROUND
5-8KFT. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BRING AT LEAST A VICINITY THREAT TO KOFK AND KLNK...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL AFTER 02Z. ANY SHOWERS AFFECTING TAF SITES
MAY BRING THUNDER...AS WELL AS VIS AND POSSIBLY EVEN CIGS INTO
MVFR RANGE. HAVE JUST MENTIONED THE SHOWERS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS
FOR NOW...WITH TIME YET TO MODIFY AS TIMING OF SHOWERS BECOMES
MORE EVIDENT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MAYES




000
FXUS63 KGID 171157
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
LIGHT BR AND/OR PASSING -TSRAS THIS MORNING...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 17/15Z DESPITE SHOWERY AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KTS...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 171157
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
LIGHT BR AND/OR PASSING -TSRAS THIS MORNING...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 17/15Z DESPITE SHOWERY AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KTS...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 171157
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
LIGHT BR AND/OR PASSING -TSRAS THIS MORNING...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 17/15Z DESPITE SHOWERY AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KTS...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 171157
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
LIGHT BR AND/OR PASSING -TSRAS THIS MORNING...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 17/15Z DESPITE SHOWERY AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KTS...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 171157
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
LIGHT BR AND/OR PASSING -TSRAS THIS MORNING...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 17/15Z DESPITE SHOWERY AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KTS...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 171157
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
LIGHT BR AND/OR PASSING -TSRAS THIS MORNING...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 17/15Z DESPITE SHOWERY AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KTS...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KLBF 171142
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
TX PNHDL INTO WRN CO. SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS SWRN INTO WEST
CENTRAL NEBR WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS IS
TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S EXCEPT MID 40S
ERN PNHDL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY IN NWRN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN TURN
WESTWARD INTO WRN NEBR AND THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND NERN
COLORADO. PWAT VALUES 0.75 INCH TO NEAR AND INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT VALUES OF 175 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL.

FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS IN SWRN NEBR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN NCTRL NEBR.
EXPECTING A DECREASE OR END TO SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO SWRN
NEBR...THEN REDEVELOPMENT AS THE NOSE OF A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NWRN KS/NERN CO/SWRN NEBR BY
21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KTS
ALONG WITH ML CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME AFTERNOON SUN POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS TO HELP DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE. APPEARS THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 21Z INITIATION TIME THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE FA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. DIFFERENCES LIE IN LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...THE NERN HALF OF FA IS
MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE HIGHER QPFS NEAR A HALF INCH WHILE
SWRN AREAS A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH. LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NCTRL. MODELS INDICATE
A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO SWRN NEBR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH LOWING TO 40 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE EFFECTS FROM THE SLOW MOVING
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LOCATION OF THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW...NORTHEASTERN CO...SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH VARIES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST WITH THE LOW...WHILE THE NAM IS THE WEAKEST.
THE ACTUALLY STRENGTH WILL PLAY A BIG PART INTO THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY SW ZONES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME SW CONUS/PACIFIC DRY AIR STARTING TO GET
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. THE STRONGER GFS BRINGS THE DRY SLOW WELL
INTO THE CWA BY SATURDAY LATE MORNING. THE NAM JUST NOSES THE DRY
AIR INTO SW NEB. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS OF
SW NEB INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE DRY
SLOT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO END UP WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A FEW SPRINKLES HERE OR THERE...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT DRY JUST YET.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS PUSH ACROSS KS.
MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE NORTHERN
LOW EVENTUALLY WILL ABSORB THE SOUTHERN LOW AS WE GET INTO THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE WRAP AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY END BY SUN MID DAY. COOLER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT SOME GUSTY N/NW WINDS. AFTER 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR SAT...TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SUNDAY.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS. THIS LEAVES US BENEATH NW FLOW AND A
FEW WEAK CLIPPERS TO ADD SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE SENDING
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH EACH
SYSTEM...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RETURNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. AT KVTN...SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE KVTN TERMAINAL BY 15Z
AND LINGER INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2500 FEET AGL ARE
LIKELY WITH VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 5SM AT TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 171142
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
TX PNHDL INTO WRN CO. SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS SWRN INTO WEST
CENTRAL NEBR WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS IS
TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S EXCEPT MID 40S
ERN PNHDL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY IN NWRN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN TURN
WESTWARD INTO WRN NEBR AND THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND NERN
COLORADO. PWAT VALUES 0.75 INCH TO NEAR AND INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT VALUES OF 175 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL.

FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS IN SWRN NEBR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN NCTRL NEBR.
EXPECTING A DECREASE OR END TO SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO SWRN
NEBR...THEN REDEVELOPMENT AS THE NOSE OF A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NWRN KS/NERN CO/SWRN NEBR BY
21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KTS
ALONG WITH ML CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME AFTERNOON SUN POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS TO HELP DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE. APPEARS THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 21Z INITIATION TIME THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE FA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. DIFFERENCES LIE IN LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...THE NERN HALF OF FA IS
MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE HIGHER QPFS NEAR A HALF INCH WHILE
SWRN AREAS A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH. LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NCTRL. MODELS INDICATE
A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO SWRN NEBR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH LOWING TO 40 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE EFFECTS FROM THE SLOW MOVING
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LOCATION OF THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW...NORTHEASTERN CO...SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH VARIES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST WITH THE LOW...WHILE THE NAM IS THE WEAKEST.
THE ACTUALLY STRENGTH WILL PLAY A BIG PART INTO THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY SW ZONES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME SW CONUS/PACIFIC DRY AIR STARTING TO GET
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. THE STRONGER GFS BRINGS THE DRY SLOW WELL
INTO THE CWA BY SATURDAY LATE MORNING. THE NAM JUST NOSES THE DRY
AIR INTO SW NEB. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS OF
SW NEB INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE DRY
SLOT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO END UP WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A FEW SPRINKLES HERE OR THERE...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT DRY JUST YET.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS PUSH ACROSS KS.
MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE NORTHERN
LOW EVENTUALLY WILL ABSORB THE SOUTHERN LOW AS WE GET INTO THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE WRAP AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY END BY SUN MID DAY. COOLER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT SOME GUSTY N/NW WINDS. AFTER 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR SAT...TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SUNDAY.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS. THIS LEAVES US BENEATH NW FLOW AND A
FEW WEAK CLIPPERS TO ADD SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE SENDING
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH EACH
SYSTEM...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RETURNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. AT KVTN...SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE KVTN TERMAINAL BY 15Z
AND LINGER INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2500 FEET AGL ARE
LIKELY WITH VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 5SM AT TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KGID 170917
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
417 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
LIGHT BR OVERNIGHT AND/OR PASSING TSRAS...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY DESPITE
SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. THAT SAID...SOME MODEL
DATA IS FORECASTING CIGS AS LOW AS 700FT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN
CURRENT TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 12 KTS...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KGID 170917
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
417 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
LIGHT BR OVERNIGHT AND/OR PASSING TSRAS...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY DESPITE
SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. THAT SAID...SOME MODEL
DATA IS FORECASTING CIGS AS LOW AS 700FT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN
CURRENT TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 12 KTS...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 170917
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
417 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND MODEST INSTABILITY...EXPECT
TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

DESPITE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...
THANKS TO MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AND WHILE
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND HENCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...IN REALITY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED THE
AREA OF SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD AS WELL AS ADDED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06Z
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAYS VALUES...BUT IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN...THANKS TO THE
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
AIRMASS...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS A LITTLE
AND MOVES ON TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHEN THE MUCAPE IS 1000 TO
1300 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
FASTER TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
A GOOD BREEZE ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FEEL COOLER THAN THE
NEAR 60 TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH
HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS AN EVEN WEAKER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS THEREFORE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME POPS ACROSS THE
AREA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE UPPER WAVE COMES
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
LIGHT BR OVERNIGHT AND/OR PASSING TSRAS...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY DESPITE
SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. THAT SAID...SOME MODEL
DATA IS FORECASTING CIGS AS LOW AS 700FT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN
CURRENT TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 12 KTS...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KLBF 170849
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
TX PNHDL INTO WRN CO. SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS SWRN INTO WEST
CENTRAL NEBR WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS IS
TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S EXCEPT MID 40S
ERN PNHDL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY IN NWRN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN TURN
WESTWARD INTO WRN NEBR AND THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND NERN
COLORADO. PWAT VALUES 0.75 INCH TO NEAR AND INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT VALUES OF 175 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL.

FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS IN SWRN NEBR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN NCTRL NEBR.
EXPECTING A DECREASE OR END TO SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO SWRN
NEBR...THEN REDEVELOPMENT AS THE NOSE OF A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NWRN KS/NERN CO/SWRN NEBR BY
21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KTS
ALONG WITH ML CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME AFTERNOON SUN POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS TO HELP DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE. APPEARS THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 21Z INITIATION TIME THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE FA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. DIFFERENCES LIE IN LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...THE NERN HALF OF FA IS
MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE HIGHER QPFS NEAR A HALF INCH WHILE
SWRN AREAS A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH. LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NCTRL. MODELS INDICATE
A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO SWRN NEBR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH LOWING TO 40 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE EFFECTS FROM THE SLOW MOVING
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LOCATION OF THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW...NORTHEASTERN CO...SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH VARIES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST WITH THE LOW...WHILE THE NAM IS THE WEAKEST.
THE ACTUALLY STRENGTH WILL PLAY A BIG PART INTO THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY SW ZONES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME SW CONUS/PACIFIC DRY AIR STARTING TO GET
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. THE STRONGER GFS BRINGS THE DRY SLOW WELL
INTO THE CWA BY SATURDAY LATE MORNING. THE NAM JUST NOSES THE DRY
AIR INTO SW NEB. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS OF
SW NEB INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE DRY
SLOT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO END UP WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A FEW SPRINKLES HERE OR THERE...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT DRY JUST YET.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS PUSH ACROSS KS.
MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE NORTHERN
LOW EVENTUALLY WILL ABSORB THE SOUTHERN LOW AS WE GET INTO THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE WRAP AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY END BY SUN MID DAY. COOLER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT SOME GUSTY N/NW WINDS. AFTER 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR SAT...TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SUNDAY.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS. THIS LEAVES US BENEATH NW FLOW AND A
FEW WEAK CLIPPERS TO ADD SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE SENDING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH EACH SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT BOUT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW
1000 FEET AGL ARE LIKELY WITH VISIBILITY TO ABOUT 3SM.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 170849
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
TX PNHDL INTO WRN CO. SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS SWRN INTO WEST
CENTRAL NEBR WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS IS
TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S EXCEPT MID 40S
ERN PNHDL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY IN NWRN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE FA THROUGH TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN TURN
WESTWARD INTO WRN NEBR AND THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND NERN
COLORADO. PWAT VALUES 0.75 INCH TO NEAR AND INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT VALUES OF 175 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL.

FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS IN SWRN NEBR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY. CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY IN NCTRL NEBR.
EXPECTING A DECREASE OR END TO SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO SWRN
NEBR...THEN REDEVELOPMENT AS THE NOSE OF A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
OVER NEW MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NWRN KS/NERN CO/SWRN NEBR BY
21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KTS
ALONG WITH ML CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME AFTERNOON SUN POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS TO HELP DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE. APPEARS THAT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE I80 CORRIDOR WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 21Z INITIATION TIME THROUGH 03Z THIS
EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE FA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. DIFFERENCES LIE IN LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS TO OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...THE NERN HALF OF FA IS
MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE HIGHER QPFS NEAR A HALF INCH WHILE
SWRN AREAS A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH. LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NCTRL. MODELS INDICATE
A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO SWRN NEBR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH LOWING TO 40 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE EFFECTS FROM THE SLOW MOVING
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LOCATION OF THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW...NORTHEASTERN CO...SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH VARIES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST WITH THE LOW...WHILE THE NAM IS THE WEAKEST.
THE ACTUALLY STRENGTH WILL PLAY A BIG PART INTO THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY SW ZONES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING SOME SW CONUS/PACIFIC DRY AIR STARTING TO GET
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. THE STRONGER GFS BRINGS THE DRY SLOW WELL
INTO THE CWA BY SATURDAY LATE MORNING. THE NAM JUST NOSES THE DRY
AIR INTO SW NEB. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PARTS OF
SW NEB INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE DRY
SLOT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO END UP WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A FEW SPRINKLES HERE OR THERE...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT DRY JUST YET.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS PUSH ACROSS KS.
MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE NORTHERN
LOW EVENTUALLY WILL ABSORB THE SOUTHERN LOW AS WE GET INTO THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE WRAP AROUND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.
SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY END BY SUN MID DAY. COOLER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND EXPECT SOME GUSTY N/NW WINDS. AFTER 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR SAT...TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SUNDAY.

MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS. THIS LEAVES US BENEATH NW FLOW AND A
FEW WEAK CLIPPERS TO ADD SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A RETURN
TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE SENDING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH EACH SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT BOUT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW
1000 FEET AGL ARE LIKELY WITH VISIBILITY TO ABOUT 3SM.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KOAX 170832
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIPITATION ENDING SUNDAY.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PIVOTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FROM KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP
TODAY WITH EASTERN AREAS HAVING TO WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR
BETTER POPS AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A BEATRICE-LINCOLN-
COLUMBUS ARC BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER IN THE EAST HALF. THIS
SPLIT SHOULD SEE LOWER TEMPS AROUND 70 CONFINED TO THE WEST WITH MID
70S IN THE EAST WHERE SOME PERIODS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO
COLORADO BY 00Z TONIGHT.  THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 06Z.  THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE H5 ENERGY TO THE NORTH
IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE CLOSED LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
OKLAHOMA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THESE PERIODS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS WEEKEND.
THE INSTABILITY AXIS DOES LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN H85 BOUNDARY IN
THIS REGION THAT LIFTS NORTH AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOME .25-.5 INCH RAINS FELL ALONG WITH PEA
TO DIME- SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS IN
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 200J/KG FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A LITTLE
BETTER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 500J/KG SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD RANGE FROM .5 TO 1 INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO IOWA AND EXTEND IN A LARGE AREA
FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA
AND THE DAKOTA.  THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS DEVELOPS OVER IOWA
INTO MINNESOTA AND EVENTUALLY WI.  THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE GFS/NAM/EC ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A FRONT OVER FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EAST OF THE AREA BY
18Z. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THERE
WILL STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORESO IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT TURN WINDY 15 TO 25KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT
H85. THE MOISTURE DRIES OUT TO .5-.75 PWAT BY 00Z AND 0.25 OF AN
INCH PWAT BY 12Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...SHIFTS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...AND LINGERS THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH LOW...AND THIS ALLOWS A STORM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE EC IS MAINLY DRY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SCT SHRA MAY AFFECT THE KLNK TAF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
THIS PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING NWD TOWARD THE KOMA TAF
DUE TO HIGHER STABILITY. SOME OF THIS -RA MAY MOVE INTO KOFK
TOWARD MRNG AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THERE FOR A COUPLE
HOURS. MOST OF FRI SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE TAFS WITH A SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT WINDS. SCT SHRA MAY AGAIN DVLP FRI EVNG
/ESPECIALLY FOR KOFK-KLNK THRU 06Z/ WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP AT ALL THE TAF SITES JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD



000
FXUS63 KOAX 170832
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIPITATION ENDING SUNDAY.

REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PIVOTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FROM KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA
AROUND CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP
TODAY WITH EASTERN AREAS HAVING TO WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FOR
BETTER POPS AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTH WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A BEATRICE-LINCOLN-
COLUMBUS ARC BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER IN THE EAST HALF. THIS
SPLIT SHOULD SEE LOWER TEMPS AROUND 70 CONFINED TO THE WEST WITH MID
70S IN THE EAST WHERE SOME PERIODS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO
COLORADO BY 00Z TONIGHT.  THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 06Z.  THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN SPLITTING SOME OF THE H5 ENERGY TO THE NORTH
IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE CLOSED LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
OKLAHOMA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THESE PERIODS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THIS WEEKEND.
THE INSTABILITY AXIS DOES LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN H85 BOUNDARY IN
THIS REGION THAT LIFTS NORTH AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOME .25-.5 INCH RAINS FELL ALONG WITH PEA
TO DIME- SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS IN
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 200J/KG FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A LITTLE
BETTER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 500J/KG SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
SATURDAY COULD RANGE FROM .5 TO 1 INCH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO IOWA AND EXTEND IN A LARGE AREA
FROM THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA
AND THE DAKOTA.  THE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KTS DEVELOPS OVER IOWA
INTO MINNESOTA AND EVENTUALLY WI.  THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE IS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE GFS/NAM/EC ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A FRONT OVER FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EAST OF THE AREA BY
18Z. WITH THE LONGWAVE TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THERE
WILL STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORESO IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT TURN WINDY 15 TO 25KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH 40 TO 50KTS AT
H85. THE MOISTURE DRIES OUT TO .5-.75 PWAT BY 00Z AND 0.25 OF AN
INCH PWAT BY 12Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...SHIFTS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...AND LINGERS THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH LOW...AND THIS ALLOWS A STORM
SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE EC IS MAINLY DRY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SCT SHRA MAY AFFECT THE KLNK TAF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
THIS PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING NWD TOWARD THE KOMA TAF
DUE TO HIGHER STABILITY. SOME OF THIS -RA MAY MOVE INTO KOFK
TOWARD MRNG AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THERE FOR A COUPLE
HOURS. MOST OF FRI SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE TAFS WITH A SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT WINDS. SCT SHRA MAY AGAIN DVLP FRI EVNG
/ESPECIALLY FOR KOFK-KLNK THRU 06Z/ WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP AT ALL THE TAF SITES JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD




000
FXUS63 KGID 170543
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1243 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WILL SEE "SOME" AMOUNT OF MEASURABLE RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (SOME PLACES LIKELY AS MUCH AS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS)...IT REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE TRYING TO PIN
DOWN THE DETAILS OF THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY/RAIN AMOUNTS/RAIN
TIMING BEYOND THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS. AS HOPEFULLY MOST FOLKS ALREADY
REALIZE AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY TODAY...IT WILL BY NO MEANS BE
RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME...AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE A FEW
DISTINCT ROUNDS/WAVES OF CONVECTION LIFTING FROM SOUTH-NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA WITH POTENTIALLY MULTI-HOUR BREAKS IN BETWEEN.
UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES...WE WOULD TRY TO FINE-TUNE POPS INTO
NO MORE THAN 3-HOURLY RESOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT
WITH SO MUCH MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PATTERN ITS DICEY
TRYING TO PIN DOWN MUCH MORE THAN 6-HOUR RESOLUTION DETAILS...SO
STAY UP TO TO DATE FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OVER THESE NEXT FEW
DAYS REGARDING THE SMALLER TEMPORAL/SPATIAL SCALES.

CERTAINLY THE NUMBER 1 CONCERN BOTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS THE PROSPECT OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND PARTICULARLY IN KS ZONES WHICH CARRY
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF REALIZING 500-1000+ J/KG OF MIXED LAYER AND
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST A STRONGER STORM MAINLY WITH
SUB-SEVERE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD EXTEND WELL-NORTHWARD
INTO NEB ZONES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH IT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH A
VERY...VERY LARGE GRAIN OF SALT...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC QPF
FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CALLS FOR GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITHIN WESTERN COUNTIES...AND MORE SO
0.75-1.25 INCHES IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF...SHORT
TERM FLOODING ISSUES ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BETWEEN
NOW AND LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER HEAVIER STORMS...THINK MOST OF
THE CWA CAN STILL EASILY ABSORB A 1-2" RAIN WITH FEW ISSUES...SO
WOULD EXPECT ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING TO LIKELY HOLD OFF MORE-SO
UNTIL THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THINGS
POTENTIALLY GET A LITTLE MORE SATURATED. ANY WAY YOU CUT IT
THOUGH...THIS IS A VERY WELCOMED RAINY PATTERN BY MOST.

FOCUSING ON THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...AS EXPECTED EARLIER
TODAY...ITS BEEN A LARGELY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE SOME
MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG IN SOME AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE VERY BEGINNING
STAGES OF OUR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK IS
GETTING UNDERWAY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA...WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6/I-80 WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR AT LEAST 2-4
MORE HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MOVES IN/DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE- WISE...A MODEST
BREAK IN THE EARLIER OVERCAST HAS ALLOWED MOST OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWA TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WHILE MORE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL CAP MANY PLACES SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S. ON THE SURFACE
MAP...GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA. ON THE LARGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCALE...AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW CHURNS OVER THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...WITH VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE
PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE THE INCREASING STORM CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT 6-12+ HOURS.

WITH THE VARIOUS CAVEATS OF THE SHORT TERM TRENDS COVERED
ABOVE...HERE IS A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE EXPECTATIONS FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: AGAIN MANY PLACES...ESPECIALLY 2-3+
COUNTIES NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL HAVE TO BE PATIENT...AS IT
COULD TAKE AWHILE TO GET LEGITIMATE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA.
BUT SLOWLY BUT SURELY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
INVADE THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND POPS REFLECT THAT
TREND AS BEST AS CURRENTLY POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL CWA IS
CERTAINLY NOT IN THE "CROSSHAIRS" OF THE PRIMARY SLIGHT/ENHANCED
SEVERE STORM RISK AREAS CENTERED FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS
SOUTHWARD...THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WARRANT
A MARGINAL RISK FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 DOWN INTO
KS. STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BE A MIX OF MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH THE MAIN THREATS LIKELY BEING
THE STANDARD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (AROUND QUARTERS) AND WINDS
(AROUND 60 MPH). ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT
IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE AND HAVE LEFT ANY SUCH WORDING OUT OF THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THIS THREAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY
ZERO EITHER...ESPECIALLY WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. AS WITH MOST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
AROUND HERE...THINK THE PRIMARY ISSUES SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER CORES
WITH HAIL POTENTIAL LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AGAIN
THOUGH...INSTABILITY SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY NOTICEABLY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT. LOW TEMP-WISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS EXPECTING ALL AREAS TO DROP NO LOWER THAN LOW-MID 50S.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEANING MOST TOWARD THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED
BY THE 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW AND THE LATEST 18Z NAM...EXPECT A
FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN AND FAIRLY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE POST-SUNRISE
HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND HAVE POPS 60-80 PERCENT AREA-
WIDE. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE A DECENT LULL BETWEEN ANY
MORNING AND LATER AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND IF SO HOW LONG WILL
IT LAST? GENERALLY EXPECT A BIT MORE TO BE GOING ON DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS THAN WHAT HAPPENED TODAY THOUGH. CERTAINLY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT THESE SAME
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS THEN WILL BE MOST FAVORED TO BE THE FIRST
PLACES TO SEE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG-SEVERE LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING CONVECTION AS FORCING/DESTABILIZATION INCREASES
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO REACH EAST-CENTRAL CO BY 00Z/7PM. AT LEAST ON
PAPER...THE COMBO IF CAPE/SHEAR LOOKS A BIT MORE POTENT THAN
TODAY`S SETUP...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON YET-TO-BE-RESOLVED MESOSCALE DETAILS.
NONETHELESS...CAN`T ARGUE WITH SPC LIFTING THE OFFICIAL DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...WITH HAIL/WIND AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AGAIN LIKELY
AT LEAST A LOW/NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...MUCH LIKE TODAY EXPECT SOME AREAS TO STAY A TOUCH COOLER OR
CLIMB A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED...BUT GENERALLY HAVE MOST OF THE
CWA AIMED INTO THE 65-72 RANGE. OBVIOUSLY ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT
THAT STARTS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD AND THE
QUESTIONS TO PONDER WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH WHEN WILL RAIN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND ARE SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH THE CUT OFF LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. BY SUNSET FRIDAY THE LOW SHOULD STILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE
NORTHERN JET...WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE POSITION OF
THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. THE CUT OFF LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY EAST ON SATURDAY. BY SAT
AFTERNOON A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE
CUT OFF LOW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO TRANSITION THE CUT OFF INTO AN OPEN
WAVE...FILLING IT A BIT AS WELL. THE NORTHERN WAVE IS ALSO PROGGED
TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SAT NIGHT WHICH MEANS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND RAIN CHANCES...MOST LIKELY WONT END
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA.

WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME KIND OF POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTION SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE CWA MAY BE DRY SLOTTED
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS
SHOW THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA OVER AN INCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DROPPING TO HALF OF THAT BY NOON SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERE LOOKS TO BE ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER A BIT HERE WITH THE NAM GENERATING A
BIT LESS CAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR THAN THE GFS AT 00Z...BUT THE NAM
DOES KEEP MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE INTERESTING WITH THE DRY SLOT COMING
INTO PLAY AND WE COULD SEE CONVECTION POP IN THE SOUTH IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT A BIT AND WE GET MORE HEATING.

AS NOTED ABOVE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
DROP THROUGH FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO SUNDAY WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT NICE WITH COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS.  WE WILL
REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK SO IT
SHOULD STAY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP IN NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
LIGHT BR OVERNIGHT AND/OR PASSING TSRAS...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY DESPITE
SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. THAT SAID...SOME MODEL
DATA IS FORECASTING CIGS AS LOW AS 700FT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN
CURRENT TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 12 KTS...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...ROSSI




000
FXUS63 KGID 170543
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1243 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WILL SEE "SOME" AMOUNT OF MEASURABLE RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (SOME PLACES LIKELY AS MUCH AS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS)...IT REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE TRYING TO PIN
DOWN THE DETAILS OF THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY/RAIN AMOUNTS/RAIN
TIMING BEYOND THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS. AS HOPEFULLY MOST FOLKS ALREADY
REALIZE AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY TODAY...IT WILL BY NO MEANS BE
RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME...AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE A FEW
DISTINCT ROUNDS/WAVES OF CONVECTION LIFTING FROM SOUTH-NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA WITH POTENTIALLY MULTI-HOUR BREAKS IN BETWEEN.
UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES...WE WOULD TRY TO FINE-TUNE POPS INTO
NO MORE THAN 3-HOURLY RESOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT
WITH SO MUCH MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PATTERN ITS DICEY
TRYING TO PIN DOWN MUCH MORE THAN 6-HOUR RESOLUTION DETAILS...SO
STAY UP TO TO DATE FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OVER THESE NEXT FEW
DAYS REGARDING THE SMALLER TEMPORAL/SPATIAL SCALES.

CERTAINLY THE NUMBER 1 CONCERN BOTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS THE PROSPECT OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND PARTICULARLY IN KS ZONES WHICH CARRY
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF REALIZING 500-1000+ J/KG OF MIXED LAYER AND
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST A STRONGER STORM MAINLY WITH
SUB-SEVERE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD EXTEND WELL-NORTHWARD
INTO NEB ZONES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH IT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH A
VERY...VERY LARGE GRAIN OF SALT...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC QPF
FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CALLS FOR GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITHIN WESTERN COUNTIES...AND MORE SO
0.75-1.25 INCHES IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF...SHORT
TERM FLOODING ISSUES ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BETWEEN
NOW AND LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER HEAVIER STORMS...THINK MOST OF
THE CWA CAN STILL EASILY ABSORB A 1-2" RAIN WITH FEW ISSUES...SO
WOULD EXPECT ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING TO LIKELY HOLD OFF MORE-SO
UNTIL THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THINGS
POTENTIALLY GET A LITTLE MORE SATURATED. ANY WAY YOU CUT IT
THOUGH...THIS IS A VERY WELCOMED RAINY PATTERN BY MOST.

FOCUSING ON THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...AS EXPECTED EARLIER
TODAY...ITS BEEN A LARGELY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE SOME
MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG IN SOME AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE VERY BEGINNING
STAGES OF OUR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK IS
GETTING UNDERWAY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA...WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6/I-80 WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR AT LEAST 2-4
MORE HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MOVES IN/DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE- WISE...A MODEST
BREAK IN THE EARLIER OVERCAST HAS ALLOWED MOST OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWA TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WHILE MORE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL CAP MANY PLACES SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S. ON THE SURFACE
MAP...GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA. ON THE LARGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCALE...AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW CHURNS OVER THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...WITH VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE
PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE THE INCREASING STORM CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT 6-12+ HOURS.

WITH THE VARIOUS CAVEATS OF THE SHORT TERM TRENDS COVERED
ABOVE...HERE IS A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE EXPECTATIONS FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: AGAIN MANY PLACES...ESPECIALLY 2-3+
COUNTIES NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL HAVE TO BE PATIENT...AS IT
COULD TAKE AWHILE TO GET LEGITIMATE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA.
BUT SLOWLY BUT SURELY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
INVADE THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND POPS REFLECT THAT
TREND AS BEST AS CURRENTLY POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL CWA IS
CERTAINLY NOT IN THE "CROSSHAIRS" OF THE PRIMARY SLIGHT/ENHANCED
SEVERE STORM RISK AREAS CENTERED FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS
SOUTHWARD...THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WARRANT
A MARGINAL RISK FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 DOWN INTO
KS. STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BE A MIX OF MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH THE MAIN THREATS LIKELY BEING
THE STANDARD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (AROUND QUARTERS) AND WINDS
(AROUND 60 MPH). ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT
IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE AND HAVE LEFT ANY SUCH WORDING OUT OF THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THIS THREAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY
ZERO EITHER...ESPECIALLY WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. AS WITH MOST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
AROUND HERE...THINK THE PRIMARY ISSUES SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER CORES
WITH HAIL POTENTIAL LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AGAIN
THOUGH...INSTABILITY SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY NOTICEABLY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT. LOW TEMP-WISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS EXPECTING ALL AREAS TO DROP NO LOWER THAN LOW-MID 50S.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEANING MOST TOWARD THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED
BY THE 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW AND THE LATEST 18Z NAM...EXPECT A
FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN AND FAIRLY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE POST-SUNRISE
HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND HAVE POPS 60-80 PERCENT AREA-
WIDE. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE A DECENT LULL BETWEEN ANY
MORNING AND LATER AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND IF SO HOW LONG WILL
IT LAST? GENERALLY EXPECT A BIT MORE TO BE GOING ON DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS THAN WHAT HAPPENED TODAY THOUGH. CERTAINLY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT THESE SAME
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS THEN WILL BE MOST FAVORED TO BE THE FIRST
PLACES TO SEE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG-SEVERE LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING CONVECTION AS FORCING/DESTABILIZATION INCREASES
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO REACH EAST-CENTRAL CO BY 00Z/7PM. AT LEAST ON
PAPER...THE COMBO IF CAPE/SHEAR LOOKS A BIT MORE POTENT THAN
TODAY`S SETUP...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON YET-TO-BE-RESOLVED MESOSCALE DETAILS.
NONETHELESS...CAN`T ARGUE WITH SPC LIFTING THE OFFICIAL DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...WITH HAIL/WIND AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AGAIN LIKELY
AT LEAST A LOW/NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...MUCH LIKE TODAY EXPECT SOME AREAS TO STAY A TOUCH COOLER OR
CLIMB A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED...BUT GENERALLY HAVE MOST OF THE
CWA AIMED INTO THE 65-72 RANGE. OBVIOUSLY ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT
THAT STARTS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD AND THE
QUESTIONS TO PONDER WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH WHEN WILL RAIN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND ARE SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH THE CUT OFF LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. BY SUNSET FRIDAY THE LOW SHOULD STILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE
NORTHERN JET...WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE POSITION OF
THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. THE CUT OFF LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY EAST ON SATURDAY. BY SAT
AFTERNOON A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE
CUT OFF LOW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO TRANSITION THE CUT OFF INTO AN OPEN
WAVE...FILLING IT A BIT AS WELL. THE NORTHERN WAVE IS ALSO PROGGED
TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SAT NIGHT WHICH MEANS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND RAIN CHANCES...MOST LIKELY WONT END
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA.

WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME KIND OF POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTION SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE CWA MAY BE DRY SLOTTED
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS
SHOW THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA OVER AN INCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DROPPING TO HALF OF THAT BY NOON SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERE LOOKS TO BE ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER A BIT HERE WITH THE NAM GENERATING A
BIT LESS CAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR THAN THE GFS AT 00Z...BUT THE NAM
DOES KEEP MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE INTERESTING WITH THE DRY SLOT COMING
INTO PLAY AND WE COULD SEE CONVECTION POP IN THE SOUTH IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT A BIT AND WE GET MORE HEATING.

AS NOTED ABOVE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
DROP THROUGH FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO SUNDAY WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT NICE WITH COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS.  WE WILL
REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK SO IT
SHOULD STAY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP IN NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
LIGHT BR OVERNIGHT AND/OR PASSING TSRAS...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY DESPITE
SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING. THAT SAID...SOME MODEL
DATA IS FORECASTING CIGS AS LOW AS 700FT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN
CURRENT TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY...BUT REMAIN LESS
THAN 12 KTS...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...ROSSI



000
FXUS63 KOAX 170452
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OTHER THAN POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GOING FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

88D MOSAIC SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTENSIFYING OVER
WRN KS WHERE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES DESTABILIZE...MUCAPES 1000J/KG.
THE WRN KS REGION WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET.
HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN
EXPANDING INTO THE WRN CWA...AND NOW THE LATEST HRRR...AND FOR THE
MOST PART HIRES ARW/NMM...HOLD OFF REACHING THE WRN CWA UNTIL ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PCPN SHIELD SHOULD SPREAD INTO
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION AS WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADS OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PW`S ON THE ORDER OF 1.0-1.5".

STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION MOVES OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW STILL TO OUR
WEST ON SATURDAY...BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES WELL
INTO SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE
REGION AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED...STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD BE
A BLUSTERY DAY AS PCPN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSE OFF INTO A
VERY LARGE UPPER LOW...DRAGGING COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SCT SHRA MAY AFFECT THE KLNK TAF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
THIS PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING NWD TOWARD THE KOMA TAF
DUE TO HIGHER STABILITY. SOME OF THIS -RA MAY MOVE INTO KOFK
TOWARD MRNG AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THERE FOR A COUPLE
HOURS. MOST OF FRI SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE TAFS WITH A SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT WINDS. SCT SHRA MAY AGAIN DVLP FRI EVNG
/ESPECIALLY FOR KOFK-KLNK THRU 06Z/ WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP AT ALL THE TAF SITES JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KOAX 170452
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OTHER THAN POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GOING FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

88D MOSAIC SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTENSIFYING OVER
WRN KS WHERE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES DESTABILIZE...MUCAPES 1000J/KG.
THE WRN KS REGION WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET.
HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN
EXPANDING INTO THE WRN CWA...AND NOW THE LATEST HRRR...AND FOR THE
MOST PART HIRES ARW/NMM...HOLD OFF REACHING THE WRN CWA UNTIL ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PCPN SHIELD SHOULD SPREAD INTO
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION AS WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADS OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PW`S ON THE ORDER OF 1.0-1.5".

STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION MOVES OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW STILL TO OUR
WEST ON SATURDAY...BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES WELL
INTO SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE
REGION AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED...STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD BE
A BLUSTERY DAY AS PCPN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSE OFF INTO A
VERY LARGE UPPER LOW...DRAGGING COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SCT SHRA MAY AFFECT THE KLNK TAF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
THIS PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING NWD TOWARD THE KOMA TAF
DUE TO HIGHER STABILITY. SOME OF THIS -RA MAY MOVE INTO KOFK
TOWARD MRNG AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THERE FOR A COUPLE
HOURS. MOST OF FRI SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE TAFS WITH A SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT WINDS. SCT SHRA MAY AGAIN DVLP FRI EVNG
/ESPECIALLY FOR KOFK-KLNK THRU 06Z/ WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP AT ALL THE TAF SITES JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KOAX 170452
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OTHER THAN POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GOING FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

88D MOSAIC SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTENSIFYING OVER
WRN KS WHERE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES DESTABILIZE...MUCAPES 1000J/KG.
THE WRN KS REGION WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET.
HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN
EXPANDING INTO THE WRN CWA...AND NOW THE LATEST HRRR...AND FOR THE
MOST PART HIRES ARW/NMM...HOLD OFF REACHING THE WRN CWA UNTIL ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PCPN SHIELD SHOULD SPREAD INTO
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION AS WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADS OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PW`S ON THE ORDER OF 1.0-1.5".

STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION MOVES OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW STILL TO OUR
WEST ON SATURDAY...BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES WELL
INTO SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE
REGION AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED...STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD BE
A BLUSTERY DAY AS PCPN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSE OFF INTO A
VERY LARGE UPPER LOW...DRAGGING COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SCT SHRA MAY AFFECT THE KLNK TAF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
THIS PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING NWD TOWARD THE KOMA TAF
DUE TO HIGHER STABILITY. SOME OF THIS -RA MAY MOVE INTO KOFK
TOWARD MRNG AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THERE FOR A COUPLE
HOURS. MOST OF FRI SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE TAFS WITH A SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT WINDS. SCT SHRA MAY AGAIN DVLP FRI EVNG
/ESPECIALLY FOR KOFK-KLNK THRU 06Z/ WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP AT ALL THE TAF SITES JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KOAX 170452
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OTHER THAN POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GOING FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

88D MOSAIC SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTENSIFYING OVER
WRN KS WHERE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES DESTABILIZE...MUCAPES 1000J/KG.
THE WRN KS REGION WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET.
HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN
EXPANDING INTO THE WRN CWA...AND NOW THE LATEST HRRR...AND FOR THE
MOST PART HIRES ARW/NMM...HOLD OFF REACHING THE WRN CWA UNTIL ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PCPN SHIELD SHOULD SPREAD INTO
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION AS WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADS OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PW`S ON THE ORDER OF 1.0-1.5".

STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION MOVES OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW STILL TO OUR
WEST ON SATURDAY...BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES WELL
INTO SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE
REGION AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED...STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD BE
A BLUSTERY DAY AS PCPN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSE OFF INTO A
VERY LARGE UPPER LOW...DRAGGING COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SCT SHRA MAY AFFECT THE KLNK TAF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
THIS PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING NWD TOWARD THE KOMA TAF
DUE TO HIGHER STABILITY. SOME OF THIS -RA MAY MOVE INTO KOFK
TOWARD MRNG AND WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP THERE FOR A COUPLE
HOURS. MOST OF FRI SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE TAFS WITH A SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT WINDS. SCT SHRA MAY AGAIN DVLP FRI EVNG
/ESPECIALLY FOR KOFK-KLNK THRU 06Z/ WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP AT ALL THE TAF SITES JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KLBF 170442
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1142 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER 4 CORNERS TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...TEXAS PANHANDLE...CENTRAL KANSAS AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEAK RIDGING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
RIDGE ALONG PACIFIC COAST. ZONAL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...H5 LOW HAS MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS
TODAY...STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EAST CENTERED ALONG
THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS...THEN SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWN TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN.  PWATS RISE TO VALUES OF WELL ABOVE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN AREAS.
DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT IN DEF...OR AT LEAST LIKELY COVERAGE.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING AS
THERE HAS BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES TO HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.  MUCAPES ARE SHOWN  IN THE RANGE OF
200-500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  IF STORMS FORM...THEY
WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL OR A
FEW GUSTS.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST.  THE MODELS
ARE KEYING IN ON SOME DRYING LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...INCREASING SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...IF THE
NAM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO
PROMOTE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE.  NOTE...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS NON-ZERO
ACROSS SW NEB TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLD CORE SET-UP...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCES ARE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM BUT
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN EXTENDED PORTIONS...WITH GFS WARMER AND
ECMWF MUCH COOLER. EXTENDED PROCEDURE FAVORING MIDDLE OF ROAD
SOLUTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AND MOIST ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST ZONES. THROUGH THE MID TERM GULF CONTINUES OPEN WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...BAROCLINIC WITH DIFFLUENCE  ALOFT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER
WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS FROM THE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE LEAVING NORTHERN
PLAINS IN COOL NORTH FLOW AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW FROM SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE SENDING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH EACH SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT BOUT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1000
FEET AGL ARE LIKELY WITH VISIBILITY TO ABOUT 3SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 170442
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1142 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER 4 CORNERS TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...TEXAS PANHANDLE...CENTRAL KANSAS AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEAK RIDGING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
RIDGE ALONG PACIFIC COAST. ZONAL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...H5 LOW HAS MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS
TODAY...STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EAST CENTERED ALONG
THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS...THEN SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWN TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN.  PWATS RISE TO VALUES OF WELL ABOVE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN AREAS.
DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT IN DEF...OR AT LEAST LIKELY COVERAGE.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING AS
THERE HAS BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES TO HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.  MUCAPES ARE SHOWN  IN THE RANGE OF
200-500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  IF STORMS FORM...THEY
WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL OR A
FEW GUSTS.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST.  THE MODELS
ARE KEYING IN ON SOME DRYING LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...INCREASING SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...IF THE
NAM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO
PROMOTE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE.  NOTE...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS NON-ZERO
ACROSS SW NEB TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLD CORE SET-UP...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCES ARE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM BUT
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN EXTENDED PORTIONS...WITH GFS WARMER AND
ECMWF MUCH COOLER. EXTENDED PROCEDURE FAVORING MIDDLE OF ROAD
SOLUTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AND MOIST ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST ZONES. THROUGH THE MID TERM GULF CONTINUES OPEN WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...BAROCLINIC WITH DIFFLUENCE  ALOFT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER
WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS FROM THE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE LEAVING NORTHERN
PLAINS IN COOL NORTH FLOW AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW FROM SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE SENDING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH EACH SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT BOUT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1000
FEET AGL ARE LIKELY WITH VISIBILITY TO ABOUT 3SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 170442
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1142 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER 4 CORNERS TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...TEXAS PANHANDLE...CENTRAL KANSAS AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEAK RIDGING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
RIDGE ALONG PACIFIC COAST. ZONAL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...H5 LOW HAS MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS
TODAY...STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EAST CENTERED ALONG
THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS...THEN SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWN TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN.  PWATS RISE TO VALUES OF WELL ABOVE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN AREAS.
DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT IN DEF...OR AT LEAST LIKELY COVERAGE.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING AS
THERE HAS BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES TO HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.  MUCAPES ARE SHOWN  IN THE RANGE OF
200-500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  IF STORMS FORM...THEY
WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL OR A
FEW GUSTS.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST.  THE MODELS
ARE KEYING IN ON SOME DRYING LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...INCREASING SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...IF THE
NAM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO
PROMOTE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE.  NOTE...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS NON-ZERO
ACROSS SW NEB TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLD CORE SET-UP...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCES ARE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM BUT
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN EXTENDED PORTIONS...WITH GFS WARMER AND
ECMWF MUCH COOLER. EXTENDED PROCEDURE FAVORING MIDDLE OF ROAD
SOLUTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AND MOIST ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST ZONES. THROUGH THE MID TERM GULF CONTINUES OPEN WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...BAROCLINIC WITH DIFFLUENCE  ALOFT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER
WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS FROM THE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE LEAVING NORTHERN
PLAINS IN COOL NORTH FLOW AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW FROM SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE SENDING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH EACH SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT BOUT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1000
FEET AGL ARE LIKELY WITH VISIBILITY TO ABOUT 3SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 170442
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1142 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER 4 CORNERS TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...TEXAS PANHANDLE...CENTRAL KANSAS AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEAK RIDGING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
RIDGE ALONG PACIFIC COAST. ZONAL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...H5 LOW HAS MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS
TODAY...STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EAST CENTERED ALONG
THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS...THEN SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWN TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN.  PWATS RISE TO VALUES OF WELL ABOVE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN AREAS.
DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT IN DEF...OR AT LEAST LIKELY COVERAGE.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING AS
THERE HAS BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES TO HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.  MUCAPES ARE SHOWN  IN THE RANGE OF
200-500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  IF STORMS FORM...THEY
WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL OR A
FEW GUSTS.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST.  THE MODELS
ARE KEYING IN ON SOME DRYING LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...INCREASING SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...IF THE
NAM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO
PROMOTE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE.  NOTE...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS NON-ZERO
ACROSS SW NEB TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLD CORE SET-UP...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCES ARE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM BUT
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN EXTENDED PORTIONS...WITH GFS WARMER AND
ECMWF MUCH COOLER. EXTENDED PROCEDURE FAVORING MIDDLE OF ROAD
SOLUTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AND MOIST ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST ZONES. THROUGH THE MID TERM GULF CONTINUES OPEN WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...BAROCLINIC WITH DIFFLUENCE  ALOFT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER
WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS FROM THE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE LEAVING NORTHERN
PLAINS IN COOL NORTH FLOW AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW FROM SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE SENDING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH EACH SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT BOUT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1000
FEET AGL ARE LIKELY WITH VISIBILITY TO ABOUT 3SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KGID 170000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WILL SEE "SOME" AMOUNT OF MEASURABLE RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (SOME PLACES LIKELY AS MUCH AS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS)...IT REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE TRYING TO PIN
DOWN THE DETAILS OF THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY/RAIN AMOUNTS/RAIN
TIMING BEYOND THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS. AS HOPEFULLY MOST FOLKS ALREADY
REALIZE AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY TODAY...IT WILL BY NO MEANS BE
RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME...AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE A FEW
DISTINCT ROUNDS/WAVES OF CONVECTION LIFTING FROM SOUTH-NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA WITH POTENTIALLY MULTI-HOUR BREAKS IN BETWEEN.
UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES...WE WOULD TRY TO FINE-TUNE POPS INTO
NO MORE THAN 3-HOURLY RESOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT
WITH SO MUCH MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PATTERN ITS DICEY
TRYING TO PIN DOWN MUCH MORE THAN 6-HOUR RESOLUTION DETAILS...SO
STAY UP TO TO DATE FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OVER THESE NEXT FEW
DAYS REGARDING THE SMALLER TEMPORAL/SPATIAL SCALES.

CERTAINLY THE NUMBER 1 CONCERN BOTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS THE PROSPECT OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND PARTICULARLY IN KS ZONES WHICH CARRY
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF REALIZING 500-1000+ J/KG OF MIXED LAYER AND
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST A STRONGER STORM MAINLY WITH
SUB-SEVERE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD EXTEND WELL-NORTHWARD
INTO NEB ZONES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH IT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH A
VERY...VERY LARGE GRAIN OF SALT...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC QPF
FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CALLS FOR GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITHIN WESTERN COUNTIES...AND MORE SO
0.75-1.25 INCHES IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF...SHORT
TERM FLOODING ISSUES ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BETWEEN
NOW AND LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER HEAVIER STORMS...THINK MOST OF
THE CWA CAN STILL EASILY ABSORB A 1-2" RAIN WITH FEW ISSUES...SO
WOULD EXPECT ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING TO LIKELY HOLD OFF MORE-SO
UNTIL THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THINGS
POTENTIALLY GET A LITTLE MORE SATURATED. ANY WAY YOU CUT IT
THOUGH...THIS IS A VERY WELCOMED RAINY PATTERN BY MOST.

FOCUSING ON THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...AS EXPECTED EARLIER
TODAY...ITS BEEN A LARGELY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE SOME
MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG IN SOME AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE VERY BEGINNING
STAGES OF OUR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK IS
GETTING UNDERWAY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA...WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6/I-80 WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR AT LEAST 2-4
MORE HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MOVES IN/DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE- WISE...A MODEST
BREAK IN THE EARLIER OVERCAST HAS ALLOWED MOST OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWA TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WHILE MORE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL CAP MANY PLACES SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S. ON THE SURFACE
MAP...GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA. ON THE LARGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCALE...AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW CHURNS OVER THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...WITH VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE
PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE THE INCREASING STORM CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT 6-12+ HOURS.

WITH THE VARIOUS CAVEATS OF THE SHORT TERM TRENDS COVERED
ABOVE...HERE IS A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE EXPECTATIONS FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: AGAIN MANY PLACES...ESPECIALLY 2-3+
COUNTIES NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL HAVE TO BE PATIENT...AS IT
COULD TAKE AWHILE TO GET LEGITIMATE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA.
BUT SLOWLY BUT SURELY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
INVADE THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND POPS REFLECT THAT
TREND AS BEST AS CURRENTLY POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL CWA IS
CERTAINLY NOT IN THE "CROSSHAIRS" OF THE PRIMARY SLIGHT/ENHANCED
SEVERE STORM RISK AREAS CENTERED FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS
SOUTHWARD...THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WARRANT
A MARGINAL RISK FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 DOWN INTO
KS. STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BE A MIX OF MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH THE MAIN THREATS LIKELY BEING
THE STANDARD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (AROUND QUARTERS) AND WINDS
(AROUND 60 MPH). ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT
IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE AND HAVE LEFT ANY SUCH WORDING OUT OF THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THIS THREAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY
ZERO EITHER...ESPECIALLY WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. AS WITH MOST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
AROUND HERE...THINK THE PRIMARY ISSUES SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER CORES
WITH HAIL POTENTIAL LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AGAIN
THOUGH...INSTABILITY SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY NOTICEABLY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT. LOW TEMP-WISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS EXPECTING ALL AREAS TO DROP NO LOWER THAN LOW-MID 50S.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEANING MOST TOWARD THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED
BY THE 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW AND THE LATEST 18Z NAM...EXPECT A
FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN AND FAIRLY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE POST-SUNRISE
HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND HAVE POPS 60-80 PERCENT AREA-
WIDE. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE A DECENT LULL BETWEEN ANY
MORNING AND LATER AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND IF SO HOW LONG WILL
IT LAST? GENERALLY EXPECT A BIT MORE TO BE GOING ON DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS THAN WHAT HAPPENED TODAY THOUGH. CERTAINLY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT THESE SAME
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS THEN WILL BE MOST FAVORED TO BE THE FIRST
PLACES TO SEE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG-SEVERE LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING CONVECTION AS FORCING/DESTABILIZATION INCREASES
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO REACH EAST-CENTRAL CO BY 00Z/7PM. AT LEAST ON
PAPER...THE COMBO IF CAPE/SHEAR LOOKS A BIT MORE POTENT THAN
TODAY`S SETUP...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON YET-TO-BE-RESOLVED MESOSCALE DETAILS.
NONETHELESS...CAN`T ARGUE WITH SPC LIFTING THE OFFICIAL DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...WITH HAIL/WIND AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AGAIN LIKELY
AT LEAST A LOW/NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...MUCH LIKE TODAY EXPECT SOME AREAS TO STAY A TOUCH COOLER OR
CLIMB A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED...BUT GENERALLY HAVE MOST OF THE
CWA AIMED INTO THE 65-72 RANGE. OBVIOUSLY ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT
THAT STARTS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD AND THE
QUESTIONS TO PONDER WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH WHEN WILL RAIN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND ARE SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH THE CUT OFF LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. BY SUNSET FRIDAY THE LOW SHOULD STILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE
NORTHERN JET...WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE POSITION OF
THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. THE CUT OFF LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY EAST ON SATURDAY. BY SAT
AFTERNOON A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE
CUT OFF LOW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO TRANSITION THE CUT OFF INTO AN OPEN
WAVE...FILLING IT A BIT AS WELL. THE NORTHERN WAVE IS ALSO PROGGED
TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SAT NIGHT WHICH MEANS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND RAIN CHANCES...MOST LIKELY WONT END
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA.

WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME KIND OF POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTION SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE CWA MAY BE DRY SLOTTED
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS
SHOW THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA OVER AN INCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DROPPING TO HALF OF THAT BY NOON SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERE LOOKS TO BE ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER A BIT HERE WITH THE NAM GENERATING A
BIT LESS CAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR THAN THE GFS AT 00Z...BUT THE NAM
DOES KEEP MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE INTERESTING WITH THE DRY SLOT COMING
INTO PLAY AND WE COULD SEE CONVECTION POP IN THE SOUTH IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT A BIT AND WE GET MORE HEATING.

AS NOTED ABOVE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
DROP THROUGH FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO SUNDAY WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT NICE WITH COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS.  WE WILL
REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK SO IT
SHOULD STAY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP IN NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST. WILL PINPOINT TIMES AS WE GET CLOSER TO STORMS ARRIVING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 170000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WILL SEE "SOME" AMOUNT OF MEASURABLE RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (SOME PLACES LIKELY AS MUCH AS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS)...IT REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE TRYING TO PIN
DOWN THE DETAILS OF THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY/RAIN AMOUNTS/RAIN
TIMING BEYOND THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS. AS HOPEFULLY MOST FOLKS ALREADY
REALIZE AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY TODAY...IT WILL BY NO MEANS BE
RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME...AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE A FEW
DISTINCT ROUNDS/WAVES OF CONVECTION LIFTING FROM SOUTH-NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA WITH POTENTIALLY MULTI-HOUR BREAKS IN BETWEEN.
UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES...WE WOULD TRY TO FINE-TUNE POPS INTO
NO MORE THAN 3-HOURLY RESOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT
WITH SO MUCH MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PATTERN ITS DICEY
TRYING TO PIN DOWN MUCH MORE THAN 6-HOUR RESOLUTION DETAILS...SO
STAY UP TO TO DATE FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OVER THESE NEXT FEW
DAYS REGARDING THE SMALLER TEMPORAL/SPATIAL SCALES.

CERTAINLY THE NUMBER 1 CONCERN BOTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS THE PROSPECT OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND PARTICULARLY IN KS ZONES WHICH CARRY
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF REALIZING 500-1000+ J/KG OF MIXED LAYER AND
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST A STRONGER STORM MAINLY WITH
SUB-SEVERE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD EXTEND WELL-NORTHWARD
INTO NEB ZONES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH IT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH A
VERY...VERY LARGE GRAIN OF SALT...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC QPF
FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CALLS FOR GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITHIN WESTERN COUNTIES...AND MORE SO
0.75-1.25 INCHES IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF...SHORT
TERM FLOODING ISSUES ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BETWEEN
NOW AND LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER HEAVIER STORMS...THINK MOST OF
THE CWA CAN STILL EASILY ABSORB A 1-2" RAIN WITH FEW ISSUES...SO
WOULD EXPECT ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING TO LIKELY HOLD OFF MORE-SO
UNTIL THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THINGS
POTENTIALLY GET A LITTLE MORE SATURATED. ANY WAY YOU CUT IT
THOUGH...THIS IS A VERY WELCOMED RAINY PATTERN BY MOST.

FOCUSING ON THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...AS EXPECTED EARLIER
TODAY...ITS BEEN A LARGELY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE SOME
MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG IN SOME AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE VERY BEGINNING
STAGES OF OUR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK IS
GETTING UNDERWAY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA...WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6/I-80 WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR AT LEAST 2-4
MORE HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MOVES IN/DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE- WISE...A MODEST
BREAK IN THE EARLIER OVERCAST HAS ALLOWED MOST OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWA TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WHILE MORE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL CAP MANY PLACES SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S. ON THE SURFACE
MAP...GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA. ON THE LARGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCALE...AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW CHURNS OVER THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...WITH VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE
PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE THE INCREASING STORM CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT 6-12+ HOURS.

WITH THE VARIOUS CAVEATS OF THE SHORT TERM TRENDS COVERED
ABOVE...HERE IS A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE EXPECTATIONS FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: AGAIN MANY PLACES...ESPECIALLY 2-3+
COUNTIES NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL HAVE TO BE PATIENT...AS IT
COULD TAKE AWHILE TO GET LEGITIMATE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA.
BUT SLOWLY BUT SURELY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
INVADE THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND POPS REFLECT THAT
TREND AS BEST AS CURRENTLY POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL CWA IS
CERTAINLY NOT IN THE "CROSSHAIRS" OF THE PRIMARY SLIGHT/ENHANCED
SEVERE STORM RISK AREAS CENTERED FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS
SOUTHWARD...THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WARRANT
A MARGINAL RISK FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 DOWN INTO
KS. STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BE A MIX OF MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH THE MAIN THREATS LIKELY BEING
THE STANDARD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (AROUND QUARTERS) AND WINDS
(AROUND 60 MPH). ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT
IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE AND HAVE LEFT ANY SUCH WORDING OUT OF THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THIS THREAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY
ZERO EITHER...ESPECIALLY WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. AS WITH MOST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
AROUND HERE...THINK THE PRIMARY ISSUES SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER CORES
WITH HAIL POTENTIAL LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AGAIN
THOUGH...INSTABILITY SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY NOTICEABLY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT. LOW TEMP-WISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS EXPECTING ALL AREAS TO DROP NO LOWER THAN LOW-MID 50S.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEANING MOST TOWARD THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED
BY THE 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW AND THE LATEST 18Z NAM...EXPECT A
FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN AND FAIRLY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE POST-SUNRISE
HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND HAVE POPS 60-80 PERCENT AREA-
WIDE. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE A DECENT LULL BETWEEN ANY
MORNING AND LATER AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND IF SO HOW LONG WILL
IT LAST? GENERALLY EXPECT A BIT MORE TO BE GOING ON DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS THAN WHAT HAPPENED TODAY THOUGH. CERTAINLY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT THESE SAME
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS THEN WILL BE MOST FAVORED TO BE THE FIRST
PLACES TO SEE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG-SEVERE LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING CONVECTION AS FORCING/DESTABILIZATION INCREASES
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO REACH EAST-CENTRAL CO BY 00Z/7PM. AT LEAST ON
PAPER...THE COMBO IF CAPE/SHEAR LOOKS A BIT MORE POTENT THAN
TODAY`S SETUP...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON YET-TO-BE-RESOLVED MESOSCALE DETAILS.
NONETHELESS...CAN`T ARGUE WITH SPC LIFTING THE OFFICIAL DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...WITH HAIL/WIND AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AGAIN LIKELY
AT LEAST A LOW/NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...MUCH LIKE TODAY EXPECT SOME AREAS TO STAY A TOUCH COOLER OR
CLIMB A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED...BUT GENERALLY HAVE MOST OF THE
CWA AIMED INTO THE 65-72 RANGE. OBVIOUSLY ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT
THAT STARTS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD AND THE
QUESTIONS TO PONDER WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH WHEN WILL RAIN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND ARE SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH THE CUT OFF LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. BY SUNSET FRIDAY THE LOW SHOULD STILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE
NORTHERN JET...WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE POSITION OF
THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. THE CUT OFF LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY EAST ON SATURDAY. BY SAT
AFTERNOON A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE
CUT OFF LOW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO TRANSITION THE CUT OFF INTO AN OPEN
WAVE...FILLING IT A BIT AS WELL. THE NORTHERN WAVE IS ALSO PROGGED
TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SAT NIGHT WHICH MEANS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND RAIN CHANCES...MOST LIKELY WONT END
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA.

WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME KIND OF POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTION SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE CWA MAY BE DRY SLOTTED
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS
SHOW THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA OVER AN INCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DROPPING TO HALF OF THAT BY NOON SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERE LOOKS TO BE ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER A BIT HERE WITH THE NAM GENERATING A
BIT LESS CAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR THAN THE GFS AT 00Z...BUT THE NAM
DOES KEEP MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE INTERESTING WITH THE DRY SLOT COMING
INTO PLAY AND WE COULD SEE CONVECTION POP IN THE SOUTH IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT A BIT AND WE GET MORE HEATING.

AS NOTED ABOVE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
DROP THROUGH FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO SUNDAY WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT NICE WITH COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS.  WE WILL
REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK SO IT
SHOULD STAY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP IN NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST. WILL PINPOINT TIMES AS WE GET CLOSER TO STORMS ARRIVING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...HEINLEIN




000
FXUS63 KGID 170000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WILL SEE "SOME" AMOUNT OF MEASURABLE RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (SOME PLACES LIKELY AS MUCH AS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS)...IT REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE TRYING TO PIN
DOWN THE DETAILS OF THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY/RAIN AMOUNTS/RAIN
TIMING BEYOND THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS. AS HOPEFULLY MOST FOLKS ALREADY
REALIZE AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY TODAY...IT WILL BY NO MEANS BE
RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME...AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE A FEW
DISTINCT ROUNDS/WAVES OF CONVECTION LIFTING FROM SOUTH-NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA WITH POTENTIALLY MULTI-HOUR BREAKS IN BETWEEN.
UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES...WE WOULD TRY TO FINE-TUNE POPS INTO
NO MORE THAN 3-HOURLY RESOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT
WITH SO MUCH MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PATTERN ITS DICEY
TRYING TO PIN DOWN MUCH MORE THAN 6-HOUR RESOLUTION DETAILS...SO
STAY UP TO TO DATE FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OVER THESE NEXT FEW
DAYS REGARDING THE SMALLER TEMPORAL/SPATIAL SCALES.

CERTAINLY THE NUMBER 1 CONCERN BOTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS THE PROSPECT OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND PARTICULARLY IN KS ZONES WHICH CARRY
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF REALIZING 500-1000+ J/KG OF MIXED LAYER AND
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST A STRONGER STORM MAINLY WITH
SUB-SEVERE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD EXTEND WELL-NORTHWARD
INTO NEB ZONES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH IT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH A
VERY...VERY LARGE GRAIN OF SALT...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC QPF
FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CALLS FOR GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITHIN WESTERN COUNTIES...AND MORE SO
0.75-1.25 INCHES IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF...SHORT
TERM FLOODING ISSUES ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BETWEEN
NOW AND LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER HEAVIER STORMS...THINK MOST OF
THE CWA CAN STILL EASILY ABSORB A 1-2" RAIN WITH FEW ISSUES...SO
WOULD EXPECT ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING TO LIKELY HOLD OFF MORE-SO
UNTIL THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THINGS
POTENTIALLY GET A LITTLE MORE SATURATED. ANY WAY YOU CUT IT
THOUGH...THIS IS A VERY WELCOMED RAINY PATTERN BY MOST.

FOCUSING ON THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...AS EXPECTED EARLIER
TODAY...ITS BEEN A LARGELY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE SOME
MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG IN SOME AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE VERY BEGINNING
STAGES OF OUR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK IS
GETTING UNDERWAY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA...WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6/I-80 WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR AT LEAST 2-4
MORE HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MOVES IN/DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE- WISE...A MODEST
BREAK IN THE EARLIER OVERCAST HAS ALLOWED MOST OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWA TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WHILE MORE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL CAP MANY PLACES SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S. ON THE SURFACE
MAP...GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA. ON THE LARGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCALE...AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW CHURNS OVER THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...WITH VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE
PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE THE INCREASING STORM CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT 6-12+ HOURS.

WITH THE VARIOUS CAVEATS OF THE SHORT TERM TRENDS COVERED
ABOVE...HERE IS A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE EXPECTATIONS FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: AGAIN MANY PLACES...ESPECIALLY 2-3+
COUNTIES NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL HAVE TO BE PATIENT...AS IT
COULD TAKE AWHILE TO GET LEGITIMATE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA.
BUT SLOWLY BUT SURELY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
INVADE THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND POPS REFLECT THAT
TREND AS BEST AS CURRENTLY POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL CWA IS
CERTAINLY NOT IN THE "CROSSHAIRS" OF THE PRIMARY SLIGHT/ENHANCED
SEVERE STORM RISK AREAS CENTERED FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS
SOUTHWARD...THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WARRANT
A MARGINAL RISK FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 DOWN INTO
KS. STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BE A MIX OF MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH THE MAIN THREATS LIKELY BEING
THE STANDARD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (AROUND QUARTERS) AND WINDS
(AROUND 60 MPH). ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT
IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE AND HAVE LEFT ANY SUCH WORDING OUT OF THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THIS THREAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY
ZERO EITHER...ESPECIALLY WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. AS WITH MOST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
AROUND HERE...THINK THE PRIMARY ISSUES SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER CORES
WITH HAIL POTENTIAL LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AGAIN
THOUGH...INSTABILITY SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY NOTICEABLY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT. LOW TEMP-WISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS EXPECTING ALL AREAS TO DROP NO LOWER THAN LOW-MID 50S.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEANING MOST TOWARD THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED
BY THE 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW AND THE LATEST 18Z NAM...EXPECT A
FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN AND FAIRLY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE POST-SUNRISE
HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND HAVE POPS 60-80 PERCENT AREA-
WIDE. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE A DECENT LULL BETWEEN ANY
MORNING AND LATER AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND IF SO HOW LONG WILL
IT LAST? GENERALLY EXPECT A BIT MORE TO BE GOING ON DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS THAN WHAT HAPPENED TODAY THOUGH. CERTAINLY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT THESE SAME
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS THEN WILL BE MOST FAVORED TO BE THE FIRST
PLACES TO SEE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG-SEVERE LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING CONVECTION AS FORCING/DESTABILIZATION INCREASES
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO REACH EAST-CENTRAL CO BY 00Z/7PM. AT LEAST ON
PAPER...THE COMBO IF CAPE/SHEAR LOOKS A BIT MORE POTENT THAN
TODAY`S SETUP...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON YET-TO-BE-RESOLVED MESOSCALE DETAILS.
NONETHELESS...CAN`T ARGUE WITH SPC LIFTING THE OFFICIAL DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...WITH HAIL/WIND AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AGAIN LIKELY
AT LEAST A LOW/NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...MUCH LIKE TODAY EXPECT SOME AREAS TO STAY A TOUCH COOLER OR
CLIMB A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED...BUT GENERALLY HAVE MOST OF THE
CWA AIMED INTO THE 65-72 RANGE. OBVIOUSLY ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT
THAT STARTS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD AND THE
QUESTIONS TO PONDER WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH WHEN WILL RAIN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND ARE SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH THE CUT OFF LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. BY SUNSET FRIDAY THE LOW SHOULD STILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE
NORTHERN JET...WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE POSITION OF
THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. THE CUT OFF LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY EAST ON SATURDAY. BY SAT
AFTERNOON A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE
CUT OFF LOW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO TRANSITION THE CUT OFF INTO AN OPEN
WAVE...FILLING IT A BIT AS WELL. THE NORTHERN WAVE IS ALSO PROGGED
TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SAT NIGHT WHICH MEANS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND RAIN CHANCES...MOST LIKELY WONT END
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA.

WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME KIND OF POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTION SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE CWA MAY BE DRY SLOTTED
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS
SHOW THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA OVER AN INCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DROPPING TO HALF OF THAT BY NOON SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERE LOOKS TO BE ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER A BIT HERE WITH THE NAM GENERATING A
BIT LESS CAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR THAN THE GFS AT 00Z...BUT THE NAM
DOES KEEP MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE INTERESTING WITH THE DRY SLOT COMING
INTO PLAY AND WE COULD SEE CONVECTION POP IN THE SOUTH IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT A BIT AND WE GET MORE HEATING.

AS NOTED ABOVE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
DROP THROUGH FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO SUNDAY WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT NICE WITH COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS.  WE WILL
REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK SO IT
SHOULD STAY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP IN NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST. WILL PINPOINT TIMES AS WE GET CLOSER TO STORMS ARRIVING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



000
FXUS63 KOAX 162347
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
647 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OTHER THAN POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GOING FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

88D MOSAIC SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTENSIFYING OVER
WRN KS WHERE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES DESTABILIZE...MUCAPES 1000J/KG.
THE WRN KS REGION WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET.
HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN
EXPANDING INTO THE WRN CWA...AND NOW THE LATEST HRRR...AND FOR THE
MOST PART HIRES ARW/NMM...HOLD OFF REACHING THE WRN CWA UNTIL ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PCPN SHIELD SHOULD SPREAD INTO
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION AS WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADS OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PW`S ON THE ORDER OF 1.0-1.5".

STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION MOVES OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW STILL TO OUR
WEST ON SATURDAY...BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES WELL
INTO SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE
REGION AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED...STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD BE
A BLUSTERY DAY AS PCPN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSE OFF INTO A
VERY LARGE UPPER LOW...DRAGGING COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CHC
OF A ISO SHRA/TSRA THIS EVNG AT KLNK NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY BUT
OTHERWISE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO STAY WEST OF THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT AND FRI. SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BECOME BKN MID LEVEL DURING THE DAY ON FRI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...




000
FXUS63 KOAX 162347
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
647 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OTHER THAN POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GOING FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

88D MOSAIC SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTENSIFYING OVER
WRN KS WHERE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES DESTABILIZE...MUCAPES 1000J/KG.
THE WRN KS REGION WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET.
HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN
EXPANDING INTO THE WRN CWA...AND NOW THE LATEST HRRR...AND FOR THE
MOST PART HIRES ARW/NMM...HOLD OFF REACHING THE WRN CWA UNTIL ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PCPN SHIELD SHOULD SPREAD INTO
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION AS WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADS OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PW`S ON THE ORDER OF 1.0-1.5".

STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION MOVES OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW STILL TO OUR
WEST ON SATURDAY...BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES WELL
INTO SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE
REGION AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED...STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD BE
A BLUSTERY DAY AS PCPN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSE OFF INTO A
VERY LARGE UPPER LOW...DRAGGING COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CHC
OF A ISO SHRA/TSRA THIS EVNG AT KLNK NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY BUT
OTHERWISE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO STAY WEST OF THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT AND FRI. SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BECOME BKN MID LEVEL DURING THE DAY ON FRI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...



000
FXUS63 KLBF 162322
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER 4 CORNERS TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...TEXAS PANHANDLE...CENTRAL KANSAS AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEAK RIDGING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
RIDGE ALONG PACIFIC COAST. ZONAL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...H5 LOW HAS MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS
TODAY...STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EAST CENTERED ALONG
THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS...THEN SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWN TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN.  PWATS RISE TO VALUES OF WELL ABOVE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN AREAS.
DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT IN DEF...OR AT LEAST LIKELY COVERAGE.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING AS
THERE HAS BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES TO HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.  MUCAPES ARE SHOWN  IN THE RANGE OF
200-500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  IF STORMS FORM...THEY
WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL OR A
FEW GUSTS.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST.  THE MODELS
ARE KEYING IN ON SOME DRYING LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...INCREASING SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...IF THE
NAM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO
PROMOTE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE.  NOTE...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS NON-ZERO
ACROSS SW NEB TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLD CORE SET-UP...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCES ARE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM BUT
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN EXTENDED PORTIONS...WITH GFS WARMER AND
ECMWF MUCH COOLER. EXTENDED PROCEDURE FAVORING MIDDLE OF ROAD
SOLUTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AND MOIST ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST ZONES. THROUGH THE MID TERM GULF CONTINUES OPEN WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...BAROCLINIC WITH DIFFLUENCE  ALOFT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER
WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS FROM THE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE LEAVING NORTHERN
PLAINS IN COOL NORTH FLOW AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW FROM SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE SENDING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH EACH SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT BOUT IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET
AGL ARE LIKELY WITH VISIBILITY TO ABOUT 3SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 162322
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER 4 CORNERS TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...TEXAS PANHANDLE...CENTRAL KANSAS AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEAK RIDGING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
RIDGE ALONG PACIFIC COAST. ZONAL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...H5 LOW HAS MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS
TODAY...STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EAST CENTERED ALONG
THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS...THEN SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWN TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN.  PWATS RISE TO VALUES OF WELL ABOVE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN AREAS.
DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT IN DEF...OR AT LEAST LIKELY COVERAGE.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING AS
THERE HAS BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES TO HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.  MUCAPES ARE SHOWN  IN THE RANGE OF
200-500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  IF STORMS FORM...THEY
WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL OR A
FEW GUSTS.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST.  THE MODELS
ARE KEYING IN ON SOME DRYING LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...INCREASING SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...IF THE
NAM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO
PROMOTE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE.  NOTE...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS NON-ZERO
ACROSS SW NEB TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLD CORE SET-UP...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCES ARE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM BUT
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN EXTENDED PORTIONS...WITH GFS WARMER AND
ECMWF MUCH COOLER. EXTENDED PROCEDURE FAVORING MIDDLE OF ROAD
SOLUTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AND MOIST ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST ZONES. THROUGH THE MID TERM GULF CONTINUES OPEN WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...BAROCLINIC WITH DIFFLUENCE  ALOFT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER
WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS FROM THE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE LEAVING NORTHERN
PLAINS IN COOL NORTH FLOW AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW FROM SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE SENDING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH EACH SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT BOUT IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z. CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET
AGL ARE LIKELY WITH VISIBILITY TO ABOUT 3SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KGID 162049
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WILL SEE "SOME" AMOUNT OF MEASURABLE RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (SOME PLACES LIKELY AS MUCH AS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS)...IT REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE TRYING TO PIN
DOWN THE DETAILS OF THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY/RAIN AMOUNTS/RAIN
TIMING BEYOND THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS. AS HOPEFULLY MOST FOLKS ALREADY
REALIZE AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY TODAY...IT WILL BY NO MEANS BE
RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME...AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE A FEW
DISTINCT ROUNDS/WAVES OF CONVECTION LIFTING FROM SOUTH-NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA WITH POTENTIALLY MULTI-HOUR BREAKS IN BETWEEN.
UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES...WE WOULD TRY TO FINE-TUNE POPS INTO
NO MORE THAN 3-HOURLY RESOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT
WITH SO MUCH MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PATTERN ITS DICEY
TRYING TO PIN DOWN MUCH MORE THAN 6-HOUR RESOLUTION DETAILS...SO
STAY UP TO TO DATE FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OVER THESE NEXT FEW
DAYS REGARDING THE SMALLER TEMPORAL/SPATIAL SCALES.

CERTAINLY THE NUMBER 1 CONCERN BOTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS THE PROSPECT OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND PARTICULARLY IN KS ZONES WHICH CARRY
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF REALIZING 500-1000+ J/KG OF MIXED LAYER AND
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST A STRONGER STORM MAINLY WITH
SUB-SEVERE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD EXTEND WELL-NORTHWARD
INTO NEB ZONES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH IT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH A
VERY...VERY LARGE GRAIN OF SALT...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC QPF
FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CALLS FOR GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITHIN WESTERN COUNTIES...AND MORE SO
0.75-1.25 INCHES IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF...SHORT
TERM FLOODING ISSUES ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BETWEEN
NOW AND LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER HEAVIER STORMS...THINK MOST OF
THE CWA CAN STILL EASILY ABSORB A 1-2" RAIN WITH FEW ISSUES...SO
WOULD EXPECT ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING TO LIKELY HOLD OFF MORE-SO
UNTIL THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THINGS
POTENTIALLY GET A LITTLE MORE SATURATED. ANY WAY YOU CUT IT
THOUGH...THIS IS A VERY WELCOMED RAINY PATTERN BY MOST.

FOCUSING ON THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...AS EXPECTED EARLIER
TODAY...ITS BEEN A LARGELY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE SOME
MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG IN SOME AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE VERY BEGINNING
STAGES OF OUR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK IS
GETTING UNDERWAY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA...WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6/I-80 WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR AT LEAST 2-4
MORE HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MOVES IN/DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE- WISE...A MODEST
BREAK IN THE EARLIER OVERCAST HAS ALLOWED MOST OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWA TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WHILE MORE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL CAP MANY PLACES SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S. ON THE SURFACE
MAP...GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA. ON THE LARGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCALE...AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW CHURNS OVER THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...WITH VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE
PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE THE INCREASING STORM CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT 6-12+ HOURS.

WITH THE VARIOUS CAVEATS OF THE SHORT TERM TRENDS COVERED
ABOVE...HERE IS A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE EXPECTATIONS FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: AGAIN MANY PLACES...ESPECIALLY 2-3+
COUNTIES NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL HAVE TO BE PATIENT...AS IT
COULD TAKE AWHILE TO GET LEGITIMATE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA.
BUT SLOWLY BUT SURELY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
INVADE THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND POPS REFLECT THAT
TREND AS BEST AS CURRENTLY POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL CWA IS
CERTAINLY NOT IN THE "CROSSHAIRS" OF THE PRIMARY SLIGHT/ENHANCED
SEVERE STORM RISK AREAS CENTERED FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS
SOUTHWARD...THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WARRANT
A MARGINAL RISK FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 DOWN INTO
KS. STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BE A MIX OF MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH THE MAIN THREATS LIKELY BEING
THE STANDARD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (AROUND QUARTERS) AND WINDS
(AROUND 60 MPH). ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT
IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE AND HAVE LEFT ANY SUCH WORDING OUT OF THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THIS THREAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY
ZERO EITHER...ESPECIALLY WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. AS WITH MOST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
AROUND HERE...THINK THE PRIMARY ISSUES SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER CORES
WITH HAIL POTENTIAL LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AGAIN
THOUGH...INSTABILITY SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY NOTICEABLY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT. LOW TEMP-WISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS EXPECTING ALL AREAS TO DROP NO LOWER THAN LOW-MID 50S.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEANING MOST TOWARD THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED
BY THE 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW AND THE LATEST 18Z NAM...EXPECT A
FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN AND FAIRLY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE POST-SUNRISE
HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND HAVE POPS 60-80 PERCENT AREA-
WIDE. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE A DECENT LULL BETWEEN ANY
MORNING AND LATER AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND IF SO HOW LONG WILL
IT LAST? GENERALLY EXPECT A BIT MORE TO BE GOING ON DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS THAN WHAT HAPPENED TODAY THOUGH. CERTAINLY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT THESE SAME
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS THEN WILL BE MOST FAVORED TO BE THE FIRST
PLACES TO SEE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG-SEVERE LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING CONVECTION AS FORCING/DESTABILIZATION INCREASES
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO REACH EAST-CENTRAL CO BY 00Z/7PM. AT LEAST ON
PAPER...THE COMBO IF CAPE/SHEAR LOOKS A BIT MORE POTENT THAN
TODAY`S SETUP...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON YET-TO-BE-RESOLVED MESOSCALE DETAILS.
NONETHELESS...CAN`T ARGUE WITH SPC LIFTING THE OFFICIAL DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...WITH HAIL/WIND AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AGAIN LIKELY
AT LEAST A LOW/NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...MUCH LIKE TODAY EXPECT SOME AREAS TO STAY A TOUCH COOLER OR
CLIMB A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED...BUT GENERALLY HAVE MOST OF THE
CWA AIMED INTO THE 65-72 RANGE. OBVIOUSLY ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT
THAT STARTS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD AND THE
QUESTIONS TO PONDER WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH WHEN WILL RAIN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND ARE SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH THE CUT OFF LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. BY SUNSET FRIDAY THE LOW SHOULD STILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE
NORTHERN JET...WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE POSITION OF
THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. THE CUT OFF LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY EAST ON SATURDAY. BY SAT
AFTERNOON A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE
CUT OFF LOW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO TRANSITION THE CUT OFF INTO AN OPEN
WAVE...FILLING IT A BIT AS WELL. THE NORTHERN WAVE IS ALSO PROGGED
TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SAT NIGHT WHICH MEANS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND RAIN CHANCES...MOST LIKELY WONT END
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA.

WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME KIND OF POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTION SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE CWA MAY BE DRY SLOTTED
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS
SHOW THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA OVER AN INCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DROPPING TO HALF OF THAT BY NOON SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERE LOOKS TO BE ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER A BIT HERE WITH THE NAM GENERATING A
BIT LESS CAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR THAN THE GFS AT 00Z...BUT THE NAM
DOES KEEP MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE INTERESTING WITH THE DRY SLOT COMING
INTO PLAY AND WE COULD SEE CONVECTION POP IN THE SOUTH IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT A BIT AND WE GET MORE HEATING.

AS NOTED ABOVE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
DROP THROUGH FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO SUNDAY WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT NICE WITH COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS.  WE WILL
REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK SO IT
SHOULD STAY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP IN NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THIS WILL A RATHER CHALLENGING PERIOD REGARDING CEILING/VISIBILITY
TRENDS AND ALSO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...AND MODIFICATIONS
TO THESE ELEMENTS IN UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCES BOTH ROUTINE ISSUANCE
AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. BEAR WITH US...

IN GENERAL HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING CURRENT SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE RIGHT AWAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO LIFT INTO LOW-
END VFR AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN MVFR/IFR CEILING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT RETURNING AT SOME POINT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS MENTION UNTIL THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD FOR NOW. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...WHILE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS...DO NOT YET HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE PREVAILING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME...AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY EITHER A VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH)/VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION UNTIL SOMETHING TRULY SHOWS ITS HAND.
FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WIND TRENDS SEEM REASONABLY STRAIGHTFORWARD
(OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/MODIFICATION OF
COURSE)...WITH A GENERALLY EASTERLY DIRECTION PRIMARILY UNDER 12KT
IN PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 162049
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WILL SEE "SOME" AMOUNT OF MEASURABLE RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (SOME PLACES LIKELY AS MUCH AS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS)...IT REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE TRYING TO PIN
DOWN THE DETAILS OF THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY/RAIN AMOUNTS/RAIN
TIMING BEYOND THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS. AS HOPEFULLY MOST FOLKS ALREADY
REALIZE AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY TODAY...IT WILL BY NO MEANS BE
RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME...AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE A FEW
DISTINCT ROUNDS/WAVES OF CONVECTION LIFTING FROM SOUTH-NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA WITH POTENTIALLY MULTI-HOUR BREAKS IN BETWEEN.
UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES...WE WOULD TRY TO FINE-TUNE POPS INTO
NO MORE THAN 3-HOURLY RESOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT
WITH SO MUCH MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PATTERN ITS DICEY
TRYING TO PIN DOWN MUCH MORE THAN 6-HOUR RESOLUTION DETAILS...SO
STAY UP TO TO DATE FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OVER THESE NEXT FEW
DAYS REGARDING THE SMALLER TEMPORAL/SPATIAL SCALES.

CERTAINLY THE NUMBER 1 CONCERN BOTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS THE PROSPECT OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND PARTICULARLY IN KS ZONES WHICH CARRY
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF REALIZING 500-1000+ J/KG OF MIXED LAYER AND
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST A STRONGER STORM MAINLY WITH
SUB-SEVERE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD EXTEND WELL-NORTHWARD
INTO NEB ZONES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH IT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH A
VERY...VERY LARGE GRAIN OF SALT...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC QPF
FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CALLS FOR GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITHIN WESTERN COUNTIES...AND MORE SO
0.75-1.25 INCHES IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF...SHORT
TERM FLOODING ISSUES ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BETWEEN
NOW AND LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER HEAVIER STORMS...THINK MOST OF
THE CWA CAN STILL EASILY ABSORB A 1-2" RAIN WITH FEW ISSUES...SO
WOULD EXPECT ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING TO LIKELY HOLD OFF MORE-SO
UNTIL THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THINGS
POTENTIALLY GET A LITTLE MORE SATURATED. ANY WAY YOU CUT IT
THOUGH...THIS IS A VERY WELCOMED RAINY PATTERN BY MOST.

FOCUSING ON THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...AS EXPECTED EARLIER
TODAY...ITS BEEN A LARGELY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE SOME
MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG IN SOME AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE VERY BEGINNING
STAGES OF OUR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK IS
GETTING UNDERWAY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA...WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6/I-80 WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR AT LEAST 2-4
MORE HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MOVES IN/DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE- WISE...A MODEST
BREAK IN THE EARLIER OVERCAST HAS ALLOWED MOST OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWA TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WHILE MORE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL CAP MANY PLACES SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S. ON THE SURFACE
MAP...GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA. ON THE LARGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCALE...AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW CHURNS OVER THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...WITH VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE
PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE THE INCREASING STORM CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT 6-12+ HOURS.

WITH THE VARIOUS CAVEATS OF THE SHORT TERM TRENDS COVERED
ABOVE...HERE IS A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE EXPECTATIONS FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: AGAIN MANY PLACES...ESPECIALLY 2-3+
COUNTIES NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL HAVE TO BE PATIENT...AS IT
COULD TAKE AWHILE TO GET LEGITIMATE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA.
BUT SLOWLY BUT SURELY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
INVADE THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND POPS REFLECT THAT
TREND AS BEST AS CURRENTLY POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL CWA IS
CERTAINLY NOT IN THE "CROSSHAIRS" OF THE PRIMARY SLIGHT/ENHANCED
SEVERE STORM RISK AREAS CENTERED FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS
SOUTHWARD...THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WARRANT
A MARGINAL RISK FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 DOWN INTO
KS. STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BE A MIX OF MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH THE MAIN THREATS LIKELY BEING
THE STANDARD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (AROUND QUARTERS) AND WINDS
(AROUND 60 MPH). ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT
IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE AND HAVE LEFT ANY SUCH WORDING OUT OF THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THIS THREAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY
ZERO EITHER...ESPECIALLY WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. AS WITH MOST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
AROUND HERE...THINK THE PRIMARY ISSUES SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER CORES
WITH HAIL POTENTIAL LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AGAIN
THOUGH...INSTABILITY SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY NOTICEABLY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT. LOW TEMP-WISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS EXPECTING ALL AREAS TO DROP NO LOWER THAN LOW-MID 50S.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEANING MOST TOWARD THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED
BY THE 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW AND THE LATEST 18Z NAM...EXPECT A
FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN AND FAIRLY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE POST-SUNRISE
HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND HAVE POPS 60-80 PERCENT AREA-
WIDE. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE A DECENT LULL BETWEEN ANY
MORNING AND LATER AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND IF SO HOW LONG WILL
IT LAST? GENERALLY EXPECT A BIT MORE TO BE GOING ON DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS THAN WHAT HAPPENED TODAY THOUGH. CERTAINLY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT THESE SAME
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS THEN WILL BE MOST FAVORED TO BE THE FIRST
PLACES TO SEE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG-SEVERE LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING CONVECTION AS FORCING/DESTABILIZATION INCREASES
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO REACH EAST-CENTRAL CO BY 00Z/7PM. AT LEAST ON
PAPER...THE COMBO IF CAPE/SHEAR LOOKS A BIT MORE POTENT THAN
TODAY`S SETUP...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON YET-TO-BE-RESOLVED MESOSCALE DETAILS.
NONETHELESS...CAN`T ARGUE WITH SPC LIFTING THE OFFICIAL DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...WITH HAIL/WIND AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AGAIN LIKELY
AT LEAST A LOW/NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...MUCH LIKE TODAY EXPECT SOME AREAS TO STAY A TOUCH COOLER OR
CLIMB A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED...BUT GENERALLY HAVE MOST OF THE
CWA AIMED INTO THE 65-72 RANGE. OBVIOUSLY ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT
THAT STARTS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD AND THE
QUESTIONS TO PONDER WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH WHEN WILL RAIN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND ARE SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH THE CUT OFF LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. BY SUNSET FRIDAY THE LOW SHOULD STILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE
NORTHERN JET...WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE POSITION OF
THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. THE CUT OFF LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY EAST ON SATURDAY. BY SAT
AFTERNOON A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE
CUT OFF LOW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO TRANSITION THE CUT OFF INTO AN OPEN
WAVE...FILLING IT A BIT AS WELL. THE NORTHERN WAVE IS ALSO PROGGED
TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SAT NIGHT WHICH MEANS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND RAIN CHANCES...MOST LIKELY WONT END
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA.

WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME KIND OF POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTION SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE CWA MAY BE DRY SLOTTED
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS
SHOW THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA OVER AN INCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DROPPING TO HALF OF THAT BY NOON SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERE LOOKS TO BE ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER A BIT HERE WITH THE NAM GENERATING A
BIT LESS CAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR THAN THE GFS AT 00Z...BUT THE NAM
DOES KEEP MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE INTERESTING WITH THE DRY SLOT COMING
INTO PLAY AND WE COULD SEE CONVECTION POP IN THE SOUTH IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT A BIT AND WE GET MORE HEATING.

AS NOTED ABOVE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
DROP THROUGH FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO SUNDAY WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT NICE WITH COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS.  WE WILL
REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK SO IT
SHOULD STAY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP IN NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THIS WILL A RATHER CHALLENGING PERIOD REGARDING CEILING/VISIBILITY
TRENDS AND ALSO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...AND MODIFICATIONS
TO THESE ELEMENTS IN UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCES BOTH ROUTINE ISSUANCE
AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. BEAR WITH US...

IN GENERAL HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING CURRENT SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE RIGHT AWAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO LIFT INTO LOW-
END VFR AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN MVFR/IFR CEILING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT RETURNING AT SOME POINT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS MENTION UNTIL THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD FOR NOW. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...WHILE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS...DO NOT YET HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE PREVAILING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME...AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY EITHER A VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH)/VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION UNTIL SOMETHING TRULY SHOWS ITS HAND.
FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WIND TRENDS SEEM REASONABLY STRAIGHTFORWARD
(OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/MODIFICATION OF
COURSE)...WITH A GENERALLY EASTERLY DIRECTION PRIMARILY UNDER 12KT
IN PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 162049
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WILL SEE "SOME" AMOUNT OF MEASURABLE RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (SOME PLACES LIKELY AS MUCH AS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS)...IT REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE TRYING TO PIN
DOWN THE DETAILS OF THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY/RAIN AMOUNTS/RAIN
TIMING BEYOND THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS. AS HOPEFULLY MOST FOLKS ALREADY
REALIZE AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY TODAY...IT WILL BY NO MEANS BE
RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME...AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE A FEW
DISTINCT ROUNDS/WAVES OF CONVECTION LIFTING FROM SOUTH-NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA WITH POTENTIALLY MULTI-HOUR BREAKS IN BETWEEN.
UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES...WE WOULD TRY TO FINE-TUNE POPS INTO
NO MORE THAN 3-HOURLY RESOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT
WITH SO MUCH MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PATTERN ITS DICEY
TRYING TO PIN DOWN MUCH MORE THAN 6-HOUR RESOLUTION DETAILS...SO
STAY UP TO TO DATE FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OVER THESE NEXT FEW
DAYS REGARDING THE SMALLER TEMPORAL/SPATIAL SCALES.

CERTAINLY THE NUMBER 1 CONCERN BOTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS THE PROSPECT OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND PARTICULARLY IN KS ZONES WHICH CARRY
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF REALIZING 500-1000+ J/KG OF MIXED LAYER AND
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST A STRONGER STORM MAINLY WITH
SUB-SEVERE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD EXTEND WELL-NORTHWARD
INTO NEB ZONES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH IT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH A
VERY...VERY LARGE GRAIN OF SALT...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC QPF
FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CALLS FOR GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITHIN WESTERN COUNTIES...AND MORE SO
0.75-1.25 INCHES IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF...SHORT
TERM FLOODING ISSUES ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BETWEEN
NOW AND LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER HEAVIER STORMS...THINK MOST OF
THE CWA CAN STILL EASILY ABSORB A 1-2" RAIN WITH FEW ISSUES...SO
WOULD EXPECT ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING TO LIKELY HOLD OFF MORE-SO
UNTIL THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THINGS
POTENTIALLY GET A LITTLE MORE SATURATED. ANY WAY YOU CUT IT
THOUGH...THIS IS A VERY WELCOMED RAINY PATTERN BY MOST.

FOCUSING ON THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...AS EXPECTED EARLIER
TODAY...ITS BEEN A LARGELY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE SOME
MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG IN SOME AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE VERY BEGINNING
STAGES OF OUR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK IS
GETTING UNDERWAY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA...WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6/I-80 WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR AT LEAST 2-4
MORE HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MOVES IN/DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE- WISE...A MODEST
BREAK IN THE EARLIER OVERCAST HAS ALLOWED MOST OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWA TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WHILE MORE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL CAP MANY PLACES SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S. ON THE SURFACE
MAP...GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA. ON THE LARGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCALE...AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW CHURNS OVER THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...WITH VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE
PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE THE INCREASING STORM CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT 6-12+ HOURS.

WITH THE VARIOUS CAVEATS OF THE SHORT TERM TRENDS COVERED
ABOVE...HERE IS A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE EXPECTATIONS FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: AGAIN MANY PLACES...ESPECIALLY 2-3+
COUNTIES NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL HAVE TO BE PATIENT...AS IT
COULD TAKE AWHILE TO GET LEGITIMATE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA.
BUT SLOWLY BUT SURELY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
INVADE THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND POPS REFLECT THAT
TREND AS BEST AS CURRENTLY POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL CWA IS
CERTAINLY NOT IN THE "CROSSHAIRS" OF THE PRIMARY SLIGHT/ENHANCED
SEVERE STORM RISK AREAS CENTERED FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS
SOUTHWARD...THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WARRANT
A MARGINAL RISK FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 DOWN INTO
KS. STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BE A MIX OF MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH THE MAIN THREATS LIKELY BEING
THE STANDARD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (AROUND QUARTERS) AND WINDS
(AROUND 60 MPH). ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT
IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE AND HAVE LEFT ANY SUCH WORDING OUT OF THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THIS THREAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY
ZERO EITHER...ESPECIALLY WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. AS WITH MOST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
AROUND HERE...THINK THE PRIMARY ISSUES SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER CORES
WITH HAIL POTENTIAL LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AGAIN
THOUGH...INSTABILITY SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY NOTICEABLY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT. LOW TEMP-WISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS EXPECTING ALL AREAS TO DROP NO LOWER THAN LOW-MID 50S.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEANING MOST TOWARD THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED
BY THE 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW AND THE LATEST 18Z NAM...EXPECT A
FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN AND FAIRLY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE POST-SUNRISE
HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND HAVE POPS 60-80 PERCENT AREA-
WIDE. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE A DECENT LULL BETWEEN ANY
MORNING AND LATER AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND IF SO HOW LONG WILL
IT LAST? GENERALLY EXPECT A BIT MORE TO BE GOING ON DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS THAN WHAT HAPPENED TODAY THOUGH. CERTAINLY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT THESE SAME
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS THEN WILL BE MOST FAVORED TO BE THE FIRST
PLACES TO SEE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG-SEVERE LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING CONVECTION AS FORCING/DESTABILIZATION INCREASES
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO REACH EAST-CENTRAL CO BY 00Z/7PM. AT LEAST ON
PAPER...THE COMBO IF CAPE/SHEAR LOOKS A BIT MORE POTENT THAN
TODAY`S SETUP...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON YET-TO-BE-RESOLVED MESOSCALE DETAILS.
NONETHELESS...CAN`T ARGUE WITH SPC LIFTING THE OFFICIAL DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...WITH HAIL/WIND AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AGAIN LIKELY
AT LEAST A LOW/NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...MUCH LIKE TODAY EXPECT SOME AREAS TO STAY A TOUCH COOLER OR
CLIMB A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED...BUT GENERALLY HAVE MOST OF THE
CWA AIMED INTO THE 65-72 RANGE. OBVIOUSLY ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT
THAT STARTS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD AND THE
QUESTIONS TO PONDER WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH WHEN WILL RAIN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND ARE SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH THE CUT OFF LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. BY SUNSET FRIDAY THE LOW SHOULD STILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE
NORTHERN JET...WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE POSITION OF
THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. THE CUT OFF LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY EAST ON SATURDAY. BY SAT
AFTERNOON A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE
CUT OFF LOW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO TRANSITION THE CUT OFF INTO AN OPEN
WAVE...FILLING IT A BIT AS WELL. THE NORTHERN WAVE IS ALSO PROGGED
TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SAT NIGHT WHICH MEANS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND RAIN CHANCES...MOST LIKELY WONT END
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA.

WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME KIND OF POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTION SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE CWA MAY BE DRY SLOTTED
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS
SHOW THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA OVER AN INCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DROPPING TO HALF OF THAT BY NOON SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERE LOOKS TO BE ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER A BIT HERE WITH THE NAM GENERATING A
BIT LESS CAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR THAN THE GFS AT 00Z...BUT THE NAM
DOES KEEP MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE INTERESTING WITH THE DRY SLOT COMING
INTO PLAY AND WE COULD SEE CONVECTION POP IN THE SOUTH IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT A BIT AND WE GET MORE HEATING.

AS NOTED ABOVE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
DROP THROUGH FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO SUNDAY WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT NICE WITH COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS.  WE WILL
REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK SO IT
SHOULD STAY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP IN NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THIS WILL A RATHER CHALLENGING PERIOD REGARDING CEILING/VISIBILITY
TRENDS AND ALSO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...AND MODIFICATIONS
TO THESE ELEMENTS IN UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCES BOTH ROUTINE ISSUANCE
AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. BEAR WITH US...

IN GENERAL HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING CURRENT SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE RIGHT AWAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO LIFT INTO LOW-
END VFR AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN MVFR/IFR CEILING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT RETURNING AT SOME POINT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS MENTION UNTIL THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD FOR NOW. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...WHILE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS...DO NOT YET HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE PREVAILING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME...AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY EITHER A VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH)/VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION UNTIL SOMETHING TRULY SHOWS ITS HAND.
FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WIND TRENDS SEEM REASONABLY STRAIGHTFORWARD
(OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/MODIFICATION OF
COURSE)...WITH A GENERALLY EASTERLY DIRECTION PRIMARILY UNDER 12KT
IN PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 162049
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
WILL SEE "SOME" AMOUNT OF MEASURABLE RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (SOME PLACES LIKELY AS MUCH AS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS)...IT REMAINS QUITE A CHALLENGE TRYING TO PIN
DOWN THE DETAILS OF THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY/RAIN AMOUNTS/RAIN
TIMING BEYOND THE FIRST 3-6 HOURS. AS HOPEFULLY MOST FOLKS ALREADY
REALIZE AFTER A MAINLY DRY DAY TODAY...IT WILL BY NO MEANS BE
RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME...AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE A FEW
DISTINCT ROUNDS/WAVES OF CONVECTION LIFTING FROM SOUTH-NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA WITH POTENTIALLY MULTI-HOUR BREAKS IN BETWEEN.
UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES...WE WOULD TRY TO FINE-TUNE POPS INTO
NO MORE THAN 3-HOURLY RESOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT
WITH SO MUCH MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PATTERN ITS DICEY
TRYING TO PIN DOWN MUCH MORE THAN 6-HOUR RESOLUTION DETAILS...SO
STAY UP TO TO DATE FOR PLENTY OF FINE-TUNING OVER THESE NEXT FEW
DAYS REGARDING THE SMALLER TEMPORAL/SPATIAL SCALES.

CERTAINLY THE NUMBER 1 CONCERN BOTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS THE PROSPECT OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...AND PARTICULARLY IN KS ZONES WHICH CARRY
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF REALIZING 500-1000+ J/KG OF MIXED LAYER AND
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THAT BEING SAID...AT LEAST A STRONGER STORM MAINLY WITH
SUB-SEVERE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD EXTEND WELL-NORTHWARD
INTO NEB ZONES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH IT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH A
VERY...VERY LARGE GRAIN OF SALT...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC QPF
FORECAST THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS CALLS FOR GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITHIN WESTERN COUNTIES...AND MORE SO
0.75-1.25 INCHES IN EASTERN ZONES. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF...SHORT
TERM FLOODING ISSUES ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BETWEEN
NOW AND LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER HEAVIER STORMS...THINK MOST OF
THE CWA CAN STILL EASILY ABSORB A 1-2" RAIN WITH FEW ISSUES...SO
WOULD EXPECT ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING TO LIKELY HOLD OFF MORE-SO
UNTIL THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THINGS
POTENTIALLY GET A LITTLE MORE SATURATED. ANY WAY YOU CUT IT
THOUGH...THIS IS A VERY WELCOMED RAINY PATTERN BY MOST.

FOCUSING ON THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 20Z/3PM...AS EXPECTED EARLIER
TODAY...ITS BEEN A LARGELY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE SOME
MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG IN SOME AREAS. MEANWHILE...THE VERY BEGINNING
STAGES OF OUR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK IS
GETTING UNDERWAY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN EDGES OF
THE CWA...WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 6/I-80 WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR AT LEAST 2-4
MORE HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MOVES IN/DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE- WISE...A MODEST
BREAK IN THE EARLIER OVERCAST HAS ALLOWED MOST OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWA TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WHILE MORE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL CAP MANY PLACES SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S. ON THE SURFACE
MAP...GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA. ON THE LARGER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SCALE...AN EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW CHURNS OVER THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...WITH VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE
PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE THE INCREASING STORM CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT 6-12+ HOURS.

WITH THE VARIOUS CAVEATS OF THE SHORT TERM TRENDS COVERED
ABOVE...HERE IS A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE EXPECTATIONS FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: AGAIN MANY PLACES...ESPECIALLY 2-3+
COUNTIES NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL HAVE TO BE PATIENT...AS IT
COULD TAKE AWHILE TO GET LEGITIMATE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA.
BUT SLOWLY BUT SURELY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
INVADE THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND POPS REFLECT THAT
TREND AS BEST AS CURRENTLY POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL CWA IS
CERTAINLY NOT IN THE "CROSSHAIRS" OF THE PRIMARY SLIGHT/ENHANCED
SEVERE STORM RISK AREAS CENTERED FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS
SOUTHWARD...THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WARRANT
A MARGINAL RISK FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-THIS EVENING MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 DOWN INTO
KS. STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BE A MIX OF MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH THE MAIN THREATS LIKELY BEING
THE STANDARD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (AROUND QUARTERS) AND WINDS
(AROUND 60 MPH). ALTHOUGH AGREE WITH SPC THAT ANY TORNADO THREAT
IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE AND HAVE LEFT ANY SUCH WORDING OUT OF THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID)...THIS THREAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY
ZERO EITHER...ESPECIALLY WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. AS WITH MOST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
AROUND HERE...THINK THE PRIMARY ISSUES SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER CORES
WITH HAIL POTENTIAL LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. AGAIN
THOUGH...INSTABILITY SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY NOTICEABLY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT. LOW TEMP-WISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS EXPECTING ALL AREAS TO DROP NO LOWER THAN LOW-MID 50S.

FRIDAY DAYTIME: LEANING MOST TOWARD THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED
BY THE 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW AND THE LATEST 18Z NAM...EXPECT A
FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN AND FAIRLY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE POST-SUNRISE
HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND HAVE POPS 60-80 PERCENT AREA-
WIDE. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE A DECENT LULL BETWEEN ANY
MORNING AND LATER AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND IF SO HOW LONG WILL
IT LAST? GENERALLY EXPECT A BIT MORE TO BE GOING ON DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS THAN WHAT HAPPENED TODAY THOUGH. CERTAINLY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT THESE SAME
SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS THEN WILL BE MOST FAVORED TO BE THE FIRST
PLACES TO SEE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG-SEVERE LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING CONVECTION AS FORCING/DESTABILIZATION INCREASES
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO REACH EAST-CENTRAL CO BY 00Z/7PM. AT LEAST ON
PAPER...THE COMBO IF CAPE/SHEAR LOOKS A BIT MORE POTENT THAN
TODAY`S SETUP...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON YET-TO-BE-RESOLVED MESOSCALE DETAILS.
NONETHELESS...CAN`T ARGUE WITH SPC LIFTING THE OFFICIAL DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK AREA NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA...WITH HAIL/WIND AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AGAIN LIKELY
AT LEAST A LOW/NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...MUCH LIKE TODAY EXPECT SOME AREAS TO STAY A TOUCH COOLER OR
CLIMB A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED...BUT GENERALLY HAVE MOST OF THE
CWA AIMED INTO THE 65-72 RANGE. OBVIOUSLY ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT
THAT STARTS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW...

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD AND THE
QUESTIONS TO PONDER WILL INCLUDE THE CHANCES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH WHEN WILL RAIN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA.

THE PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND ARE SHOWING CONSISTENCY WITH THE CUT OFF LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. BY SUNSET FRIDAY THE LOW SHOULD STILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE
NORTHERN JET...WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE POSITION OF
THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. THE CUT OFF LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY EAST ON SATURDAY. BY SAT
AFTERNOON A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE
CUT OFF LOW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO TRANSITION THE CUT OFF INTO AN OPEN
WAVE...FILLING IT A BIT AS WELL. THE NORTHERN WAVE IS ALSO PROGGED
TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SAT NIGHT WHICH MEANS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND RAIN CHANCES...MOST LIKELY WONT END
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA.

WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME KIND OF POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTION SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE CWA MAY BE DRY SLOTTED
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS
SHOW THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA OVER AN INCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DROPPING TO HALF OF THAT BY NOON SATURDAY.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THERE LOOKS TO BE ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FRIDAY EVENING FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER A BIT HERE WITH THE NAM GENERATING A
BIT LESS CAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR THAN THE GFS AT 00Z...BUT THE NAM
DOES KEEP MORE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE INTERESTING WITH THE DRY SLOT COMING
INTO PLAY AND WE COULD SEE CONVECTION POP IN THE SOUTH IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT A BIT AND WE GET MORE HEATING.

AS NOTED ABOVE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER SYSTEMS MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
DROP THROUGH FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO SUNDAY WILL NOT
BE ALL THAT NICE WITH COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS.  WE WILL
REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK SO IT
SHOULD STAY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTING UP IN NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THIS WILL A RATHER CHALLENGING PERIOD REGARDING CEILING/VISIBILITY
TRENDS AND ALSO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...AND MODIFICATIONS
TO THESE ELEMENTS IN UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCES BOTH ROUTINE ISSUANCE
AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. BEAR WITH US...

IN GENERAL HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING CURRENT SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE RIGHT AWAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO LIFT INTO LOW-
END VFR AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN MVFR/IFR CEILING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT RETURNING AT SOME POINT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS MENTION UNTIL THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD FOR NOW. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...WHILE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS...DO NOT YET HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE PREVAILING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME...AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY EITHER A VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH)/VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION UNTIL SOMETHING TRULY SHOWS ITS HAND.
FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WIND TRENDS SEEM REASONABLY STRAIGHTFORWARD
(OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/MODIFICATION OF
COURSE)...WITH A GENERALLY EASTERLY DIRECTION PRIMARILY UNDER 12KT
IN PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KLBF 162029
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER 4 CORNERS TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...TEXAS PANHANDLE...CENTRAL KANSAS AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEAK RIDGING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
RIDGE ALONG PACIFIC COAST. ZONAL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...H5 LOW HAS MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS
TODAY...STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EAST CENTERED ALONG
THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS...THEN SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWN TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN.  PWATS RISE TO VALUES OF WELL ABOVE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN AREAS.
DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT IN DEF...OR AT LEAST LIKELY COVERAGE.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING AS
THERE HAS BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES TO HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.  MUCAPES ARE SHOWN  IN THE RANGE OF
200-500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  IF STORMS FORM...THEY
WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL OR A
FEW GUSTS.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST.  THE MODELS
ARE KEYING IN ON SOME DRYING LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...INCREASING SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...IF THE
NAM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO
PROMOTE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE.  NOTE...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS NON-ZERO
ACROSS SW NEB TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLD CORE SET-UP...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCES ARE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM BUT
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN EXTENDED PORTIONS...WITH GFS WARMER AND
ECMWF MUCH COOLER. EXTENDED PROCEDURE FAVORING MIDDLE OF ROAD
SOLUTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AND MOIST ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST ZONES. THROUGH THE MID TERM GULF CONTINUES OPEN WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...BAROCLINIC WITH DIFFLUENCE  ALOFT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER
WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS FROM THE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE LEAVING NORTHERN
PLAINS IN COOL NORTH FLOW AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW FROM SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT IS
LOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL RELUCTANTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. ALL
FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTH
FROM THE LOW...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD.
BEFORE THEN...LIGHT SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...OR A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOTE...THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR /OR LOWER/
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED...AND UNFORTUNATELY THESE UPDATES MAY BE
SHORT NOTICE.



&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION..JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 162029
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER 4 CORNERS TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...TEXAS PANHANDLE...CENTRAL KANSAS AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEAK RIDGING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
RIDGE ALONG PACIFIC COAST. ZONAL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...H5 LOW HAS MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS
TODAY...STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EAST CENTERED ALONG
THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS...THEN SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWN TO LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING FOR A PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH ORIGINS FROM THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN.  PWATS RISE TO VALUES OF WELL ABOVE 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN AREAS.
DID INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT IN DEF...OR AT LEAST LIKELY COVERAGE.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING AS
THERE HAS BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES TO HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT.  MUCAPES ARE SHOWN  IN THE RANGE OF
200-500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  IF STORMS FORM...THEY
WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL OR A
FEW GUSTS.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST.  THE MODELS
ARE KEYING IN ON SOME DRYING LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...INCREASING SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...IF THE
NAM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO
PROMOTE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE.  NOTE...THE TORNADIC THREAT IS NON-ZERO
ACROSS SW NEB TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COLD CORE SET-UP...BUT
AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCES ARE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM BUT
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN EXTENDED PORTIONS...WITH GFS WARMER AND
ECMWF MUCH COOLER. EXTENDED PROCEDURE FAVORING MIDDLE OF ROAD
SOLUTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AND MOIST ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST ZONES. THROUGH THE MID TERM GULF CONTINUES OPEN WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...BAROCLINIC WITH DIFFLUENCE  ALOFT NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER
WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS FROM THE
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE LEAVING NORTHERN
PLAINS IN COOL NORTH FLOW AND FAST NORTHWEST FLOW FROM SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT IS
LOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL RELUCTANTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. ALL
FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTH
FROM THE LOW...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD.
BEFORE THEN...LIGHT SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...OR A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOTE...THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR /OR LOWER/
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED...AND UNFORTUNATELY THESE UPDATES MAY BE
SHORT NOTICE.



&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION..JACOBS






000
FXUS63 KOAX 162000
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OTHER THAN POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GOING FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

88D MOSAIC SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTENSIFYING OVER
WRN KS WHERE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES DESTABILIZE...MUCAPES 1000J/KG.
THE WRN KS REGION WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET.
HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN
EXPANDING INTO THE WRN CWA...AND NOW THE LATEST HRRR...AND FOR THE
MOST PART HIRES ARW/NMM...HOLD OFF REACHING THE WRN CWA UNTIL ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PCPN SHIELD SHOULD SPREAD INTO
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION AS WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADS OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PW`S ON THE ORDER OF 1.0-1.5".

STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION MOVES OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW STILL TO OUR
WEST ON SATURDAY...BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES WELL
INTO SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE
REGION AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED...STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD BE
A BLUSTERY DAY AS PCPN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSE OFF INTO A
VERY LARGE UPPER LOW...DRAGGING COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTN SHOWING SCT SHRA LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN
NEB WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE PCPN ACTIVITY.
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HINT THE TAF SITES WILL SEE BRIEF PD
OF -SHRA/MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN SCT TSRA ACTIVITY BEGINS
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
ERN NEB. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 162000
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OTHER THAN POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GOING FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

88D MOSAIC SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTENSIFYING OVER
WRN KS WHERE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES DESTABILIZE...MUCAPES 1000J/KG.
THE WRN KS REGION WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET.
HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN
EXPANDING INTO THE WRN CWA...AND NOW THE LATEST HRRR...AND FOR THE
MOST PART HIRES ARW/NMM...HOLD OFF REACHING THE WRN CWA UNTIL ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PCPN SHIELD SHOULD SPREAD INTO
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION AS WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADS OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PW`S ON THE ORDER OF 1.0-1.5".

STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION MOVES OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW STILL TO OUR
WEST ON SATURDAY...BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES WELL
INTO SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE
REGION AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED...STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD BE
A BLUSTERY DAY AS PCPN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSE OFF INTO A
VERY LARGE UPPER LOW...DRAGGING COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTN SHOWING SCT SHRA LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN
NEB WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE PCPN ACTIVITY.
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HINT THE TAF SITES WILL SEE BRIEF PD
OF -SHRA/MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN SCT TSRA ACTIVITY BEGINS
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
ERN NEB. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KOAX 162000
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OTHER THAN POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...GOING FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

88D MOSAIC SHOWING PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTENSIFYING OVER
WRN KS WHERE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES DESTABILIZE...MUCAPES 1000J/KG.
THE WRN KS REGION WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS EVENING WITHIN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/NOSE OF LLVL JET.
HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN
EXPANDING INTO THE WRN CWA...AND NOW THE LATEST HRRR...AND FOR THE
MOST PART HIRES ARW/NMM...HOLD OFF REACHING THE WRN CWA UNTIL ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE SFC LOW POSITIONED OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PCPN SHIELD SHOULD SPREAD INTO
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION AS WEAK INSTABILITY SPREADS OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH PW`S ON THE ORDER OF 1.0-1.5".

STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION MOVES OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW STILL TO OUR
WEST ON SATURDAY...BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES WELL
INTO SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE
REGION AT SOME POINT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AS IT SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DO NOT LOOK
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED...STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD BE
A BLUSTERY DAY AS PCPN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MUCH COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CLOSE OFF INTO A
VERY LARGE UPPER LOW...DRAGGING COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTN SHOWING SCT SHRA LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN
NEB WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE PCPN ACTIVITY.
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HINT THE TAF SITES WILL SEE BRIEF PD
OF -SHRA/MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN SCT TSRA ACTIVITY BEGINS
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
ERN NEB. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KOAX 161751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1251 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF AROUND 635 AM. MOST OF THE RECENT
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY GOING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA BUT ALSO IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA NORTH OF OMAHA. CLOUDS WERE VARIABLE AS OF
635 AM WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG WHERE SKIES HAD CLEARED EARLIER.

BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS SEEMS TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS LAST EVENING
CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS BRING THAT PCPN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INSTABILITY AXIS FARTHER WEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BRING SOME INSTABILITY INTO OUR AREA BY MID MORNING AND
THEN THIS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA...THEN FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF LINE FROM AROUND
WAYNE TO FALLS CITY.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT
MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING.
STAYED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TO COLORADO. THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY.
THE 0.83 PWAT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING WAS 170% OF NORMAL.  CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD PWAT VALUES FROM 1.00-1.25
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THEN 0.75 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DRYING FROM THE WEST. THE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL TEND TO BE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO AND WYOMING.
THIS FORCING TENDS TO WEAKEN AT IS MOVES TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND WESTERN IOWA. THE NAM/GFS/EC MODELS DID NOT DO WELL ON THE
POSITION OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE WEST AT 06Z HOWEVER THE
HIRES RAP/HRRR AND 4KM WRF NMM MODELS DID BETTER...SO HARD TO BE
CONFIDENT WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIKELY POPS...OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AND WILL HAVE A GRADIENT IN POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ISOLATED/CHC POPS IN WESTERN IOWA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE COMMON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  TYPICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A
TRACE TO .5" IN EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD.  FOR THAT 48HRS A REASONABLE
RANGE FOR RAIN TOTALS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE TYPICAL LOWER AND HIGHER OUTLIERS POSSIBLE.

HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY.
IF HEATING IS REALIZED...INSTABILITY INCREASES FRIDAY TO
1000-1500J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE SPC HAS THE MARGINAL RISK IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE
THAT EXTENDS FROM H5 LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SHIFTS INTO MISSOURI
AND IOWA. THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. H85 WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASE TO 40KTS...SO IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE COLDER AND SLOWER TO END THE PRECIPITATION...SO THESE
DETAILS CAN BE FIRMED UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ENDING OF THE
EVENT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY. COOLER HIGHS FOR THE
EXTENDED IN THE 50S AND 60S. MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD H5 TROF CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTN SHOWING SCT SHRA LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN
NEB WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE PCPN ACTIVITY.
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HINT THE TAF SITES WILL SEE BRIEF PD
OF -SHRA/MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN SCT TSRA ACTIVITY BEGINS
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
ERN NEB. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 161751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1251 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF AROUND 635 AM. MOST OF THE RECENT
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY GOING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA BUT ALSO IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA NORTH OF OMAHA. CLOUDS WERE VARIABLE AS OF
635 AM WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG WHERE SKIES HAD CLEARED EARLIER.

BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS SEEMS TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS LAST EVENING
CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS BRING THAT PCPN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INSTABILITY AXIS FARTHER WEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BRING SOME INSTABILITY INTO OUR AREA BY MID MORNING AND
THEN THIS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA...THEN FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF LINE FROM AROUND
WAYNE TO FALLS CITY.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT
MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING.
STAYED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TO COLORADO. THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY.
THE 0.83 PWAT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING WAS 170% OF NORMAL.  CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD PWAT VALUES FROM 1.00-1.25
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THEN 0.75 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DRYING FROM THE WEST. THE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL TEND TO BE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO AND WYOMING.
THIS FORCING TENDS TO WEAKEN AT IS MOVES TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND WESTERN IOWA. THE NAM/GFS/EC MODELS DID NOT DO WELL ON THE
POSITION OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE WEST AT 06Z HOWEVER THE
HIRES RAP/HRRR AND 4KM WRF NMM MODELS DID BETTER...SO HARD TO BE
CONFIDENT WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIKELY POPS...OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AND WILL HAVE A GRADIENT IN POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ISOLATED/CHC POPS IN WESTERN IOWA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE COMMON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  TYPICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A
TRACE TO .5" IN EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD.  FOR THAT 48HRS A REASONABLE
RANGE FOR RAIN TOTALS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE TYPICAL LOWER AND HIGHER OUTLIERS POSSIBLE.

HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY.
IF HEATING IS REALIZED...INSTABILITY INCREASES FRIDAY TO
1000-1500J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE SPC HAS THE MARGINAL RISK IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE
THAT EXTENDS FROM H5 LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SHIFTS INTO MISSOURI
AND IOWA. THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. H85 WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASE TO 40KTS...SO IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE COLDER AND SLOWER TO END THE PRECIPITATION...SO THESE
DETAILS CAN BE FIRMED UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ENDING OF THE
EVENT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY. COOLER HIGHS FOR THE
EXTENDED IN THE 50S AND 60S. MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD H5 TROF CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTN SHOWING SCT SHRA LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN
NEB WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE PCPN ACTIVITY.
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HINT THE TAF SITES WILL SEE BRIEF PD
OF -SHRA/MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN SCT TSRA ACTIVITY BEGINS
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
ERN NEB. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KOAX 161751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1251 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF AROUND 635 AM. MOST OF THE RECENT
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY GOING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA BUT ALSO IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA NORTH OF OMAHA. CLOUDS WERE VARIABLE AS OF
635 AM WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG WHERE SKIES HAD CLEARED EARLIER.

BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS SEEMS TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS LAST EVENING
CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS BRING THAT PCPN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INSTABILITY AXIS FARTHER WEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BRING SOME INSTABILITY INTO OUR AREA BY MID MORNING AND
THEN THIS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA...THEN FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF LINE FROM AROUND
WAYNE TO FALLS CITY.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT
MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING.
STAYED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TO COLORADO. THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY.
THE 0.83 PWAT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING WAS 170% OF NORMAL.  CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD PWAT VALUES FROM 1.00-1.25
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THEN 0.75 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DRYING FROM THE WEST. THE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL TEND TO BE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO AND WYOMING.
THIS FORCING TENDS TO WEAKEN AT IS MOVES TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND WESTERN IOWA. THE NAM/GFS/EC MODELS DID NOT DO WELL ON THE
POSITION OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE WEST AT 06Z HOWEVER THE
HIRES RAP/HRRR AND 4KM WRF NMM MODELS DID BETTER...SO HARD TO BE
CONFIDENT WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIKELY POPS...OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AND WILL HAVE A GRADIENT IN POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ISOLATED/CHC POPS IN WESTERN IOWA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE COMMON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  TYPICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A
TRACE TO .5" IN EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD.  FOR THAT 48HRS A REASONABLE
RANGE FOR RAIN TOTALS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE TYPICAL LOWER AND HIGHER OUTLIERS POSSIBLE.

HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY.
IF HEATING IS REALIZED...INSTABILITY INCREASES FRIDAY TO
1000-1500J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE SPC HAS THE MARGINAL RISK IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE
THAT EXTENDS FROM H5 LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SHIFTS INTO MISSOURI
AND IOWA. THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. H85 WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASE TO 40KTS...SO IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE COLDER AND SLOWER TO END THE PRECIPITATION...SO THESE
DETAILS CAN BE FIRMED UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ENDING OF THE
EVENT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY. COOLER HIGHS FOR THE
EXTENDED IN THE 50S AND 60S. MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD H5 TROF CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTN SHOWING SCT SHRA LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN
NEB WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE PCPN ACTIVITY.
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HINT THE TAF SITES WILL SEE BRIEF PD
OF -SHRA/MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN SCT TSRA ACTIVITY BEGINS
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
ERN NEB. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEE




000
FXUS63 KOAX 161751
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1251 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF AROUND 635 AM. MOST OF THE RECENT
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY GOING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA BUT ALSO IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA NORTH OF OMAHA. CLOUDS WERE VARIABLE AS OF
635 AM WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG WHERE SKIES HAD CLEARED EARLIER.

BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS SEEMS TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS LAST EVENING
CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS BRING THAT PCPN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INSTABILITY AXIS FARTHER WEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BRING SOME INSTABILITY INTO OUR AREA BY MID MORNING AND
THEN THIS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA...THEN FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF LINE FROM AROUND
WAYNE TO FALLS CITY.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT
MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING.
STAYED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TO COLORADO. THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY.
THE 0.83 PWAT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING WAS 170% OF NORMAL.  CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD PWAT VALUES FROM 1.00-1.25
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THEN 0.75 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DRYING FROM THE WEST. THE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL TEND TO BE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO AND WYOMING.
THIS FORCING TENDS TO WEAKEN AT IS MOVES TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND WESTERN IOWA. THE NAM/GFS/EC MODELS DID NOT DO WELL ON THE
POSITION OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE WEST AT 06Z HOWEVER THE
HIRES RAP/HRRR AND 4KM WRF NMM MODELS DID BETTER...SO HARD TO BE
CONFIDENT WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIKELY POPS...OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AND WILL HAVE A GRADIENT IN POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ISOLATED/CHC POPS IN WESTERN IOWA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE COMMON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  TYPICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A
TRACE TO .5" IN EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD.  FOR THAT 48HRS A REASONABLE
RANGE FOR RAIN TOTALS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE TYPICAL LOWER AND HIGHER OUTLIERS POSSIBLE.

HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY.
IF HEATING IS REALIZED...INSTABILITY INCREASES FRIDAY TO
1000-1500J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE SPC HAS THE MARGINAL RISK IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE
THAT EXTENDS FROM H5 LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SHIFTS INTO MISSOURI
AND IOWA. THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. H85 WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASE TO 40KTS...SO IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE COLDER AND SLOWER TO END THE PRECIPITATION...SO THESE
DETAILS CAN BE FIRMED UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ENDING OF THE
EVENT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY. COOLER HIGHS FOR THE
EXTENDED IN THE 50S AND 60S. MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD H5 TROF CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR MOSAIC THIS AFTN SHOWING SCT SHRA LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN
NEB WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE PCPN ACTIVITY.
TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HINT THE TAF SITES WILL SEE BRIEF PD
OF -SHRA/MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THUS HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN SCT TSRA ACTIVITY BEGINS
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
ERN NEB. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEE



000
FXUS63 KLBF 161734
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO WRN NEBR AND
CNTRL SD. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE THROUGH HOLDREGE NORTH TO NEAR
BURWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FA BY TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN NEBR AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
0.75 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN FA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND INCH ACROSS
THE SERN FA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT
VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND SWRN NEBR
BY 21Z. POPS THIS MORNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY. WENT NEAR TO
SIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER
50S WEST TO NEAR 65 NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLED H3 JET AND EASTERLY H85 WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35KTS WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE H7
LOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE H85 FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL CO TO ALONG
THE KS/NEBR BORDER. NEARLY CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPFS FOR TONIGHT FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 TO TWO TENTHS TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO THE NORTH. RESULTING POPS NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD PREFER
EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE WET WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS CO THEN STALL/MINOR LOOP BEFORE PUSHING
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE LOW IS ACROSS CO...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH 0.75 TO 0.90
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST WHICH IS NEARING THE MAX FOR MID APRIL FOR
KLBF. NEG LIFTED INDEXES AND SOME SMALL POS MUCAPE SHOULD RESULT
IN PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW OVER CO...WHICH ALLOWS A LARGE DRY
SLOT TO GET PULL IN FROM THE DESERT SW FOR SATURDAY. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THE GFS IS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO S DAKOTA BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT
DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SOME
DRYING ACROSS SW NEB AND LOWER POPS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW...WHICH BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE BACK TO SW NEB. A FURTHER
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPS ON
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL SWING.
EXPECT POCKETS OF SUN AND STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ON SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. NO MENTION OF SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS IN POSITIVE
TERRITORY AND SFC LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COOLEST.

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S. STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR TEMPS THIS COLD.

NEXT WEEK A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ROTATE NEAR/NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF SFC MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPS
MORE SEASONAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT IS
LOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL RELUCTANTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. ALL
FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTH
FROM THE LOW...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD.
BEFORE THEN...LIGHT SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...OR A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOTE...THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR /OR LOWER/
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED...AND UNFORTUNATELY THESE UPDATES MAY BE
SHORT NOTICE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 161734
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO WRN NEBR AND
CNTRL SD. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE THROUGH HOLDREGE NORTH TO NEAR
BURWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FA BY TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN NEBR AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
0.75 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN FA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND INCH ACROSS
THE SERN FA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT
VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND SWRN NEBR
BY 21Z. POPS THIS MORNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY. WENT NEAR TO
SIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER
50S WEST TO NEAR 65 NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLED H3 JET AND EASTERLY H85 WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35KTS WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE H7
LOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE H85 FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL CO TO ALONG
THE KS/NEBR BORDER. NEARLY CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPFS FOR TONIGHT FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 TO TWO TENTHS TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO THE NORTH. RESULTING POPS NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD PREFER
EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE WET WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS CO THEN STALL/MINOR LOOP BEFORE PUSHING
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE LOW IS ACROSS CO...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH 0.75 TO 0.90
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST WHICH IS NEARING THE MAX FOR MID APRIL FOR
KLBF. NEG LIFTED INDEXES AND SOME SMALL POS MUCAPE SHOULD RESULT
IN PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW OVER CO...WHICH ALLOWS A LARGE DRY
SLOT TO GET PULL IN FROM THE DESERT SW FOR SATURDAY. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THE GFS IS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO S DAKOTA BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT
DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SOME
DRYING ACROSS SW NEB AND LOWER POPS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW...WHICH BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE BACK TO SW NEB. A FURTHER
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPS ON
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL SWING.
EXPECT POCKETS OF SUN AND STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ON SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. NO MENTION OF SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS IN POSITIVE
TERRITORY AND SFC LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COOLEST.

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S. STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR TEMPS THIS COLD.

NEXT WEEK A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ROTATE NEAR/NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF SFC MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPS
MORE SEASONAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT IS
LOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL RELUCTANTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. ALL
FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTH
FROM THE LOW...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD.
BEFORE THEN...LIGHT SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...OR A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOTE...THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR /OR LOWER/
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED...AND UNFORTUNATELY THESE UPDATES MAY BE
SHORT NOTICE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 161734
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO WRN NEBR AND
CNTRL SD. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE THROUGH HOLDREGE NORTH TO NEAR
BURWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FA BY TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN NEBR AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
0.75 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN FA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND INCH ACROSS
THE SERN FA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT
VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND SWRN NEBR
BY 21Z. POPS THIS MORNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY. WENT NEAR TO
SIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER
50S WEST TO NEAR 65 NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLED H3 JET AND EASTERLY H85 WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35KTS WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE H7
LOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE H85 FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL CO TO ALONG
THE KS/NEBR BORDER. NEARLY CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPFS FOR TONIGHT FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 TO TWO TENTHS TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO THE NORTH. RESULTING POPS NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD PREFER
EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE WET WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS CO THEN STALL/MINOR LOOP BEFORE PUSHING
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE LOW IS ACROSS CO...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH 0.75 TO 0.90
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST WHICH IS NEARING THE MAX FOR MID APRIL FOR
KLBF. NEG LIFTED INDEXES AND SOME SMALL POS MUCAPE SHOULD RESULT
IN PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW OVER CO...WHICH ALLOWS A LARGE DRY
SLOT TO GET PULL IN FROM THE DESERT SW FOR SATURDAY. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THE GFS IS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO S DAKOTA BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT
DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SOME
DRYING ACROSS SW NEB AND LOWER POPS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW...WHICH BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE BACK TO SW NEB. A FURTHER
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPS ON
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL SWING.
EXPECT POCKETS OF SUN AND STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ON SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. NO MENTION OF SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS IN POSITIVE
TERRITORY AND SFC LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COOLEST.

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S. STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR TEMPS THIS COLD.

NEXT WEEK A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ROTATE NEAR/NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF SFC MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPS
MORE SEASONAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT IS
LOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL RELUCTANTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. ALL
FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTH
FROM THE LOW...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD.
BEFORE THEN...LIGHT SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...OR A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOTE...THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR /OR LOWER/
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED...AND UNFORTUNATELY THESE UPDATES MAY BE
SHORT NOTICE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 161734
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO WRN NEBR AND
CNTRL SD. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE THROUGH HOLDREGE NORTH TO NEAR
BURWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FA BY TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN NEBR AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
0.75 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN FA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND INCH ACROSS
THE SERN FA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT
VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND SWRN NEBR
BY 21Z. POPS THIS MORNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY. WENT NEAR TO
SIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER
50S WEST TO NEAR 65 NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLED H3 JET AND EASTERLY H85 WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35KTS WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE H7
LOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE H85 FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL CO TO ALONG
THE KS/NEBR BORDER. NEARLY CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPFS FOR TONIGHT FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 TO TWO TENTHS TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO THE NORTH. RESULTING POPS NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD PREFER
EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE WET WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS CO THEN STALL/MINOR LOOP BEFORE PUSHING
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE LOW IS ACROSS CO...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH 0.75 TO 0.90
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST WHICH IS NEARING THE MAX FOR MID APRIL FOR
KLBF. NEG LIFTED INDEXES AND SOME SMALL POS MUCAPE SHOULD RESULT
IN PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW OVER CO...WHICH ALLOWS A LARGE DRY
SLOT TO GET PULL IN FROM THE DESERT SW FOR SATURDAY. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THE GFS IS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO S DAKOTA BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT
DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SOME
DRYING ACROSS SW NEB AND LOWER POPS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW...WHICH BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE BACK TO SW NEB. A FURTHER
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPS ON
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL SWING.
EXPECT POCKETS OF SUN AND STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ON SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. NO MENTION OF SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS IN POSITIVE
TERRITORY AND SFC LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COOLEST.

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S. STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR TEMPS THIS COLD.

NEXT WEEK A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ROTATE NEAR/NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF SFC MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPS
MORE SEASONAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT IS
LOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL RELUCTANTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. ALL
FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTH
FROM THE LOW...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD.
BEFORE THEN...LIGHT SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...OR A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOTE...THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR /OR LOWER/
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED...AND UNFORTUNATELY THESE UPDATES MAY BE
SHORT NOTICE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 161734
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO WRN NEBR AND
CNTRL SD. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE THROUGH HOLDREGE NORTH TO NEAR
BURWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FA BY TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN NEBR AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
0.75 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN FA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND INCH ACROSS
THE SERN FA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT
VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND SWRN NEBR
BY 21Z. POPS THIS MORNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY. WENT NEAR TO
SIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER
50S WEST TO NEAR 65 NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLED H3 JET AND EASTERLY H85 WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35KTS WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE H7
LOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE H85 FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL CO TO ALONG
THE KS/NEBR BORDER. NEARLY CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPFS FOR TONIGHT FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 TO TWO TENTHS TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO THE NORTH. RESULTING POPS NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD PREFER
EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE WET WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS CO THEN STALL/MINOR LOOP BEFORE PUSHING
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE LOW IS ACROSS CO...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH 0.75 TO 0.90
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST WHICH IS NEARING THE MAX FOR MID APRIL FOR
KLBF. NEG LIFTED INDEXES AND SOME SMALL POS MUCAPE SHOULD RESULT
IN PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW OVER CO...WHICH ALLOWS A LARGE DRY
SLOT TO GET PULL IN FROM THE DESERT SW FOR SATURDAY. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THE GFS IS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO S DAKOTA BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT
DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SOME
DRYING ACROSS SW NEB AND LOWER POPS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW...WHICH BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE BACK TO SW NEB. A FURTHER
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPS ON
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL SWING.
EXPECT POCKETS OF SUN AND STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ON SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. NO MENTION OF SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS IN POSITIVE
TERRITORY AND SFC LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COOLEST.

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S. STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR TEMPS THIS COLD.

NEXT WEEK A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ROTATE NEAR/NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF SFC MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPS
MORE SEASONAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT IS
LOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL RELUCTANTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. ALL
FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTH
FROM THE LOW...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD.
BEFORE THEN...LIGHT SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...OR A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOTE...THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR /OR LOWER/
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED...AND UNFORTUNATELY THESE UPDATES MAY BE
SHORT NOTICE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 161734
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO WRN NEBR AND
CNTRL SD. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE THROUGH HOLDREGE NORTH TO NEAR
BURWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FA BY TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN NEBR AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
0.75 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN FA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND INCH ACROSS
THE SERN FA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT
VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND SWRN NEBR
BY 21Z. POPS THIS MORNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY. WENT NEAR TO
SIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER
50S WEST TO NEAR 65 NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLED H3 JET AND EASTERLY H85 WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35KTS WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE H7
LOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE H85 FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL CO TO ALONG
THE KS/NEBR BORDER. NEARLY CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPFS FOR TONIGHT FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 TO TWO TENTHS TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO THE NORTH. RESULTING POPS NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD PREFER
EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE WET WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS CO THEN STALL/MINOR LOOP BEFORE PUSHING
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE LOW IS ACROSS CO...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH 0.75 TO 0.90
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST WHICH IS NEARING THE MAX FOR MID APRIL FOR
KLBF. NEG LIFTED INDEXES AND SOME SMALL POS MUCAPE SHOULD RESULT
IN PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW OVER CO...WHICH ALLOWS A LARGE DRY
SLOT TO GET PULL IN FROM THE DESERT SW FOR SATURDAY. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THE GFS IS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO S DAKOTA BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT
DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SOME
DRYING ACROSS SW NEB AND LOWER POPS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW...WHICH BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE BACK TO SW NEB. A FURTHER
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPS ON
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL SWING.
EXPECT POCKETS OF SUN AND STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ON SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. NO MENTION OF SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS IN POSITIVE
TERRITORY AND SFC LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COOLEST.

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S. STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR TEMPS THIS COLD.

NEXT WEEK A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ROTATE NEAR/NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF SFC MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPS
MORE SEASONAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT IS
LOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL RELUCTANTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. ALL
FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTH
FROM THE LOW...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD.
BEFORE THEN...LIGHT SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...OR A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOTE...THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR /OR LOWER/
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED...AND UNFORTUNATELY THESE UPDATES MAY BE
SHORT NOTICE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 161734
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO WRN NEBR AND
CNTRL SD. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE THROUGH HOLDREGE NORTH TO NEAR
BURWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FA BY TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN NEBR AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
0.75 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN FA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND INCH ACROSS
THE SERN FA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT
VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND SWRN NEBR
BY 21Z. POPS THIS MORNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY. WENT NEAR TO
SIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER
50S WEST TO NEAR 65 NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLED H3 JET AND EASTERLY H85 WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35KTS WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE H7
LOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE H85 FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL CO TO ALONG
THE KS/NEBR BORDER. NEARLY CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPFS FOR TONIGHT FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 TO TWO TENTHS TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO THE NORTH. RESULTING POPS NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD PREFER
EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE WET WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS CO THEN STALL/MINOR LOOP BEFORE PUSHING
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE LOW IS ACROSS CO...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH 0.75 TO 0.90
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST WHICH IS NEARING THE MAX FOR MID APRIL FOR
KLBF. NEG LIFTED INDEXES AND SOME SMALL POS MUCAPE SHOULD RESULT
IN PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW OVER CO...WHICH ALLOWS A LARGE DRY
SLOT TO GET PULL IN FROM THE DESERT SW FOR SATURDAY. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THE GFS IS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO S DAKOTA BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT
DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SOME
DRYING ACROSS SW NEB AND LOWER POPS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW...WHICH BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE BACK TO SW NEB. A FURTHER
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPS ON
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL SWING.
EXPECT POCKETS OF SUN AND STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ON SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. NO MENTION OF SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS IN POSITIVE
TERRITORY AND SFC LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COOLEST.

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S. STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR TEMPS THIS COLD.

NEXT WEEK A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ROTATE NEAR/NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF SFC MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPS
MORE SEASONAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT IS
LOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL RELUCTANTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. ALL
FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTH
FROM THE LOW...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD.
BEFORE THEN...LIGHT SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...OR A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOTE...THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR /OR LOWER/
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED...AND UNFORTUNATELY THESE UPDATES MAY BE
SHORT NOTICE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 161734
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO WRN NEBR AND
CNTRL SD. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE THROUGH HOLDREGE NORTH TO NEAR
BURWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FA BY TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN NEBR AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
0.75 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN FA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND INCH ACROSS
THE SERN FA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT
VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND SWRN NEBR
BY 21Z. POPS THIS MORNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY. WENT NEAR TO
SIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER
50S WEST TO NEAR 65 NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLED H3 JET AND EASTERLY H85 WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35KTS WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE H7
LOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE H85 FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL CO TO ALONG
THE KS/NEBR BORDER. NEARLY CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPFS FOR TONIGHT FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 TO TWO TENTHS TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO THE NORTH. RESULTING POPS NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD PREFER
EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE WET WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS CO THEN STALL/MINOR LOOP BEFORE PUSHING
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE LOW IS ACROSS CO...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH 0.75 TO 0.90
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST WHICH IS NEARING THE MAX FOR MID APRIL FOR
KLBF. NEG LIFTED INDEXES AND SOME SMALL POS MUCAPE SHOULD RESULT
IN PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW OVER CO...WHICH ALLOWS A LARGE DRY
SLOT TO GET PULL IN FROM THE DESERT SW FOR SATURDAY. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THE GFS IS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO S DAKOTA BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT
DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SOME
DRYING ACROSS SW NEB AND LOWER POPS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW...WHICH BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE BACK TO SW NEB. A FURTHER
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPS ON
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL SWING.
EXPECT POCKETS OF SUN AND STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ON SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. NO MENTION OF SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS IN POSITIVE
TERRITORY AND SFC LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COOLEST.

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S. STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR TEMPS THIS COLD.

NEXT WEEK A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ROTATE NEAR/NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF SFC MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPS
MORE SEASONAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND ANY POTENTIAL VISIBILITY IMPACT IS
LOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL RELUCTANTLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR STRONG MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. ALL
FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTH
FROM THE LOW...EFFECTIVELY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD.
BEFORE THEN...LIGHT SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...OR A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. NOTE...THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF IFR /OR LOWER/
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED...AND UNFORTUNATELY THESE UPDATES MAY BE
SHORT NOTICE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS










000
FXUS63 KGID 161716
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OBVIOUSLY A VERY TRICKY WEATHER PATTERN WE ARE IN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS FAR AS TRYING TO "PINPOINT" PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE. THE FIRST ROUND OF MODEST...MUCH-
NEEDED RAINFALL OF MAINLY 0.20-0.60-INCH THAT TARGETED MAINLY THE
WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT HAS FADED AWAY/LIFTED NORTH...LEAVING IN ITS
WAKE A SIZABLE AREA OF ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE
AND EVEN SOME LEGITIMATE MAINLY LIGHT FOG MAINLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL ZONES.

GENERALLY...HERE ARE THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO:

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS RAP/HRRR
AND 4KM WRF...THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND CURRENT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A PASSING LIGHT
SHOWER/SPOTTY DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT BATCH OF MODEST MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY KICKS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT CLOSED LOW CENTERED WELL-SOUTHWEST NEAR
THE 4-CORNERS...GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY EVENING. INITIALLY...THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND THREAT
FOR STRONG STORMS/ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY SHOULD TARGET
THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA...BUT ESPECIALLY KS ZONES.
HOWEVER...THE "MAIN SHOW" FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON
THE REGIONAL SCALE SHOULD LARGELY FOCUS JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST WITHIN WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS...WHERE THE
PRIMARY SPC SLIGHT/ENHANCED RISK AREAS ARE FOCUSED. WITH
INSTABILITY EVEN WITHIN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA (BOTH
LOW-LEVEL AND ELEVATED) CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH UP TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
30-40KT...COULD EASILY SEE A MIX OF MULTICELL AND SEMI-ORGANIZED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH LOW-END SEVERE HAIL/WIND CLEARLY THE
MAIN THREATS. WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...FAIRLY LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND VARIOUS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS POSSIBLE...AT LEAST A
BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING TORNADO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AGREE WITH SPC THAT THIS
PROBABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED/MAINLY 2 PERCENT AT MOST...AND THUS
WILL REFRAIN FROM EVEN MENTIONING A TORNADO RISK IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNLESS LATER TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE. WHILE THE
MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
DURING THE TYPICAL 4PM- MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME...AT LEAST A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD LINGER /RE-DEVELOP WELL INTO THE
NIGHT...POSSIBLY IN 1 OR MORE ROUNDS. OF COURSE...TIMING THESE
INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN
BETWEEN WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THINK A
DECENT CHUNK OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY SEE NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.50-1.00" (AND LOCALLY HIGHER) BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.

TEMP-WISE TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE MOST AREAS...THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN DECENT BREAKS IN
OVERCAST IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...WHICH HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
POSSIBLY BREACHING 70. MEANWHILE...MOST OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY IN
NEBRASKA) IS STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
60S...ALBEIT BARELY-SO IN SOME SPOTS. MORE TO COME WITH MAIN
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW A FEW
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST OF THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAP AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH INDICATE THIS INITIAL GROUP OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID LOWER THEM A BIT THIS
MORNING.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CANADA...EXPECT VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE EAST TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO HELP AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OUTLOOKED BY SPC. IF REALIZED...THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WHILE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO DIMINISHED SHEAR
VALUES...THINK THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BY THE TIME THE RAINFALL ENDS AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD BY A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WHILE
ACTUAL FROST MAY NOT DEVELOP EITHER DAY...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD EVENTUALLY
SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REALIZED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
MARGINAL...OPTED NOT TO MENTION EITHER OF THESE IN THE MORNING HWO.

THEREAFTER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THIS WILL A RATHER CHALLENGING PERIOD REGARDING CEILING/VISIBILITY
TRENDS AND ALSO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...AND MODIFICATIONS
TO THESE ELEMENTS IN UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCES BOTH ROUTINE ISSUANCE
AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. BEAR WITH US...

IN GENERAL HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING CURRENT SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE RIGHT AWAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO LIFT INTO LOW-
END VFR AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN MVFR/IFR CEILING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT RETURNING AT SOME POINT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS MENTION UNTIL THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD FOR NOW. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...WHILE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS...DO NOT YET HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE PREVAILING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME...AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY EITHER A VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH)/VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION UNTIL SOMETHING TRULY SHOWS ITS HAND.
FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WIND TRENDS SEEM REASONABLY STRAIGHTFORWARD
(OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/MODIFICATION OF
COURSE)...WITH A GENERALLY EASTERLY DIRECTION PRIMARILY UNDER 12KT
IN PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 161716
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OBVIOUSLY A VERY TRICKY WEATHER PATTERN WE ARE IN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS FAR AS TRYING TO "PINPOINT" PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE. THE FIRST ROUND OF MODEST...MUCH-
NEEDED RAINFALL OF MAINLY 0.20-0.60-INCH THAT TARGETED MAINLY THE
WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT HAS FADED AWAY/LIFTED NORTH...LEAVING IN ITS
WAKE A SIZABLE AREA OF ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE
AND EVEN SOME LEGITIMATE MAINLY LIGHT FOG MAINLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL ZONES.

GENERALLY...HERE ARE THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO:

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS RAP/HRRR
AND 4KM WRF...THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND CURRENT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A PASSING LIGHT
SHOWER/SPOTTY DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT BATCH OF MODEST MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY KICKS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT CLOSED LOW CENTERED WELL-SOUTHWEST NEAR
THE 4-CORNERS...GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY EVENING. INITIALLY...THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND THREAT
FOR STRONG STORMS/ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY SHOULD TARGET
THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA...BUT ESPECIALLY KS ZONES.
HOWEVER...THE "MAIN SHOW" FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON
THE REGIONAL SCALE SHOULD LARGELY FOCUS JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST WITHIN WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS...WHERE THE
PRIMARY SPC SLIGHT/ENHANCED RISK AREAS ARE FOCUSED. WITH
INSTABILITY EVEN WITHIN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA (BOTH
LOW-LEVEL AND ELEVATED) CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH UP TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
30-40KT...COULD EASILY SEE A MIX OF MULTICELL AND SEMI-ORGANIZED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH LOW-END SEVERE HAIL/WIND CLEARLY THE
MAIN THREATS. WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...FAIRLY LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND VARIOUS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS POSSIBLE...AT LEAST A
BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING TORNADO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AGREE WITH SPC THAT THIS
PROBABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED/MAINLY 2 PERCENT AT MOST...AND THUS
WILL REFRAIN FROM EVEN MENTIONING A TORNADO RISK IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNLESS LATER TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE. WHILE THE
MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
DURING THE TYPICAL 4PM- MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME...AT LEAST A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD LINGER /RE-DEVELOP WELL INTO THE
NIGHT...POSSIBLY IN 1 OR MORE ROUNDS. OF COURSE...TIMING THESE
INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN
BETWEEN WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THINK A
DECENT CHUNK OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY SEE NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.50-1.00" (AND LOCALLY HIGHER) BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.

TEMP-WISE TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE MOST AREAS...THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN DECENT BREAKS IN
OVERCAST IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...WHICH HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
POSSIBLY BREACHING 70. MEANWHILE...MOST OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY IN
NEBRASKA) IS STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
60S...ALBEIT BARELY-SO IN SOME SPOTS. MORE TO COME WITH MAIN
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW A FEW
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST OF THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAP AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH INDICATE THIS INITIAL GROUP OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID LOWER THEM A BIT THIS
MORNING.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CANADA...EXPECT VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE EAST TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO HELP AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OUTLOOKED BY SPC. IF REALIZED...THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WHILE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO DIMINISHED SHEAR
VALUES...THINK THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BY THE TIME THE RAINFALL ENDS AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD BY A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WHILE
ACTUAL FROST MAY NOT DEVELOP EITHER DAY...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD EVENTUALLY
SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REALIZED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
MARGINAL...OPTED NOT TO MENTION EITHER OF THESE IN THE MORNING HWO.

THEREAFTER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THIS WILL A RATHER CHALLENGING PERIOD REGARDING CEILING/VISIBILITY
TRENDS AND ALSO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...AND MODIFICATIONS
TO THESE ELEMENTS IN UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCES BOTH ROUTINE ISSUANCE
AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. BEAR WITH US...

IN GENERAL HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING CURRENT SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE RIGHT AWAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO LIFT INTO LOW-
END VFR AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN MVFR/IFR CEILING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT RETURNING AT SOME POINT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS MENTION UNTIL THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD FOR NOW. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...WHILE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS...DO NOT YET HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE PREVAILING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME...AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY EITHER A VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH)/VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION UNTIL SOMETHING TRULY SHOWS ITS HAND.
FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WIND TRENDS SEEM REASONABLY STRAIGHTFORWARD
(OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/MODIFICATION OF
COURSE)...WITH A GENERALLY EASTERLY DIRECTION PRIMARILY UNDER 12KT
IN PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 161716
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OBVIOUSLY A VERY TRICKY WEATHER PATTERN WE ARE IN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS FAR AS TRYING TO "PINPOINT" PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE. THE FIRST ROUND OF MODEST...MUCH-
NEEDED RAINFALL OF MAINLY 0.20-0.60-INCH THAT TARGETED MAINLY THE
WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT HAS FADED AWAY/LIFTED NORTH...LEAVING IN ITS
WAKE A SIZABLE AREA OF ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE
AND EVEN SOME LEGITIMATE MAINLY LIGHT FOG MAINLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL ZONES.

GENERALLY...HERE ARE THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO:

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS RAP/HRRR
AND 4KM WRF...THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND CURRENT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A PASSING LIGHT
SHOWER/SPOTTY DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT BATCH OF MODEST MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY KICKS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT CLOSED LOW CENTERED WELL-SOUTHWEST NEAR
THE 4-CORNERS...GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY EVENING. INITIALLY...THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND THREAT
FOR STRONG STORMS/ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY SHOULD TARGET
THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA...BUT ESPECIALLY KS ZONES.
HOWEVER...THE "MAIN SHOW" FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON
THE REGIONAL SCALE SHOULD LARGELY FOCUS JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST WITHIN WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS...WHERE THE
PRIMARY SPC SLIGHT/ENHANCED RISK AREAS ARE FOCUSED. WITH
INSTABILITY EVEN WITHIN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA (BOTH
LOW-LEVEL AND ELEVATED) CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH UP TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
30-40KT...COULD EASILY SEE A MIX OF MULTICELL AND SEMI-ORGANIZED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH LOW-END SEVERE HAIL/WIND CLEARLY THE
MAIN THREATS. WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...FAIRLY LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND VARIOUS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS POSSIBLE...AT LEAST A
BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING TORNADO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AGREE WITH SPC THAT THIS
PROBABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED/MAINLY 2 PERCENT AT MOST...AND THUS
WILL REFRAIN FROM EVEN MENTIONING A TORNADO RISK IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNLESS LATER TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE. WHILE THE
MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
DURING THE TYPICAL 4PM- MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME...AT LEAST A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD LINGER /RE-DEVELOP WELL INTO THE
NIGHT...POSSIBLY IN 1 OR MORE ROUNDS. OF COURSE...TIMING THESE
INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN
BETWEEN WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THINK A
DECENT CHUNK OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY SEE NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.50-1.00" (AND LOCALLY HIGHER) BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.

TEMP-WISE TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE MOST AREAS...THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN DECENT BREAKS IN
OVERCAST IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...WHICH HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
POSSIBLY BREACHING 70. MEANWHILE...MOST OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY IN
NEBRASKA) IS STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
60S...ALBEIT BARELY-SO IN SOME SPOTS. MORE TO COME WITH MAIN
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW A FEW
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST OF THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAP AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH INDICATE THIS INITIAL GROUP OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID LOWER THEM A BIT THIS
MORNING.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CANADA...EXPECT VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE EAST TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO HELP AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OUTLOOKED BY SPC. IF REALIZED...THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WHILE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO DIMINISHED SHEAR
VALUES...THINK THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BY THE TIME THE RAINFALL ENDS AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD BY A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WHILE
ACTUAL FROST MAY NOT DEVELOP EITHER DAY...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD EVENTUALLY
SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REALIZED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
MARGINAL...OPTED NOT TO MENTION EITHER OF THESE IN THE MORNING HWO.

THEREAFTER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THIS WILL A RATHER CHALLENGING PERIOD REGARDING CEILING/VISIBILITY
TRENDS AND ALSO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...AND MODIFICATIONS
TO THESE ELEMENTS IN UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCES BOTH ROUTINE ISSUANCE
AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. BEAR WITH US...

IN GENERAL HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING CURRENT SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE RIGHT AWAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO LIFT INTO LOW-
END VFR AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN MVFR/IFR CEILING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT RETURNING AT SOME POINT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS MENTION UNTIL THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD FOR NOW. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...WHILE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS...DO NOT YET HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE PREVAILING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME...AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY EITHER A VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH)/VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION UNTIL SOMETHING TRULY SHOWS ITS HAND.
FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WIND TRENDS SEEM REASONABLY STRAIGHTFORWARD
(OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/MODIFICATION OF
COURSE)...WITH A GENERALLY EASTERLY DIRECTION PRIMARILY UNDER 12KT
IN PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 161716
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OBVIOUSLY A VERY TRICKY WEATHER PATTERN WE ARE IN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS FAR AS TRYING TO "PINPOINT" PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE. THE FIRST ROUND OF MODEST...MUCH-
NEEDED RAINFALL OF MAINLY 0.20-0.60-INCH THAT TARGETED MAINLY THE
WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT HAS FADED AWAY/LIFTED NORTH...LEAVING IN ITS
WAKE A SIZABLE AREA OF ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE
AND EVEN SOME LEGITIMATE MAINLY LIGHT FOG MAINLY OVER WEST-
CENTRAL ZONES.

GENERALLY...HERE ARE THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO:

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS RAP/HRRR
AND 4KM WRF...THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND CURRENT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A PASSING LIGHT
SHOWER/SPOTTY DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT BATCH OF MODEST MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY KICKS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT CLOSED LOW CENTERED WELL-SOUTHWEST NEAR
THE 4-CORNERS...GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY EVENING. INITIALLY...THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND THREAT
FOR STRONG STORMS/ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY SHOULD TARGET
THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA...BUT ESPECIALLY KS ZONES.
HOWEVER...THE "MAIN SHOW" FOR A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON
THE REGIONAL SCALE SHOULD LARGELY FOCUS JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST WITHIN WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS...WHERE THE
PRIMARY SPC SLIGHT/ENHANCED RISK AREAS ARE FOCUSED. WITH
INSTABILITY EVEN WITHIN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA (BOTH
LOW-LEVEL AND ELEVATED) CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH UP TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
30-40KT...COULD EASILY SEE A MIX OF MULTICELL AND SEMI-ORGANIZED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH LOW-END SEVERE HAIL/WIND CLEARLY THE
MAIN THREATS. WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...FAIRLY LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND VARIOUS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS POSSIBLE...AT LEAST A
BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING TORNADO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AGREE WITH SPC THAT THIS
PROBABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED/MAINLY 2 PERCENT AT MOST...AND THUS
WILL REFRAIN FROM EVEN MENTIONING A TORNADO RISK IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNLESS LATER TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE. WHILE THE
MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
DURING THE TYPICAL 4PM- MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME...AT LEAST A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD LINGER /RE-DEVELOP WELL INTO THE
NIGHT...POSSIBLY IN 1 OR MORE ROUNDS. OF COURSE...TIMING THESE
INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED BREAKS IN
BETWEEN WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THINK A
DECENT CHUNK OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY SEE NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.50-1.00" (AND LOCALLY HIGHER) BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES.

TEMP-WISE TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE MOST AREAS...THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN DECENT BREAKS IN
OVERCAST IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...WHICH HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
POSSIBLY BREACHING 70. MEANWHILE...MOST OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY IN
NEBRASKA) IS STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
60S...ALBEIT BARELY-SO IN SOME SPOTS. MORE TO COME WITH MAIN
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW A FEW
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST OF THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAP AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH INDICATE THIS INITIAL GROUP OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID LOWER THEM A BIT THIS
MORNING.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CANADA...EXPECT VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE EAST TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO HELP AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OUTLOOKED BY SPC. IF REALIZED...THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WHILE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO DIMINISHED SHEAR
VALUES...THINK THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BY THE TIME THE RAINFALL ENDS AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD BY A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WHILE
ACTUAL FROST MAY NOT DEVELOP EITHER DAY...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD EVENTUALLY
SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REALIZED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
MARGINAL...OPTED NOT TO MENTION EITHER OF THESE IN THE MORNING HWO.

THEREAFTER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THIS WILL A RATHER CHALLENGING PERIOD REGARDING CEILING/VISIBILITY
TRENDS AND ALSO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...AND MODIFICATIONS
TO THESE ELEMENTS IN UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCES BOTH ROUTINE ISSUANCE
AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. BEAR WITH US...

IN GENERAL HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING CURRENT SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE RIGHT AWAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO LIFT INTO LOW-
END VFR AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN MVFR/IFR CEILING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT RETURNING AT SOME POINT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS MENTION UNTIL THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD FOR NOW. AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...WHILE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS...DO NOT YET HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ADVERTISE PREVAILING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY GIVEN TIME FRAME...AND THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY EITHER A VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH)/VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION UNTIL SOMETHING TRULY SHOWS ITS HAND.
FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WIND TRENDS SEEM REASONABLY STRAIGHTFORWARD
(OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT/MODIFICATION OF
COURSE)...WITH A GENERALLY EASTERLY DIRECTION PRIMARILY UNDER 12KT
IN PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 161307
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
807 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW A FEW
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST OF THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAP AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH INDICATE THIS INITIAL GROUP OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID LOWER THEM A BIT THIS
MORNING.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CANADA...EXPECT VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE EAST TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO HELP AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OUTLOOKED BY SPC. IF REALIZED...THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WHILE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO DIMINISHED SHEAR
VALUES...THINK THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BY THE TIME THE RAINFALL ENDS AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD BY A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WHILE
ACTUAL FROST MAY NOT DEVELOP EITHER DAY...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD EVENTUALLY
SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REALIZED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
MARGINAL...OPTED NOT TO MENTION EITHER OF THESE IN THE MORNING HWO.

THEREAFTER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 806 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE TO 12Z TAF DISCUSSION...

SINCE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WAS ISSUED A FEW HOURS
AGO...AVIATION CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN A NOTABLE DOWNWARD TURN WITH
PREVAILING LIFR/IFR CEILING AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY IN LOW
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG. THERE IS LIKELY EVEN SOME OFF-AND-ON LIGHT
DRIZZLE ONGOING. IN SHORT...EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILING/VISIBILITY AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
MAY LAST LONGER (ESPECIALLY CEILING-WISE) THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE FIRST 12-15 HOURS SHOULD MAINLY FEATURE
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARRIVING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN
CLOSING...ANTICIPATE AMENDMENTS TO BE NECESSARY DURING THE PERIOD
AS WE GRADUALLY GET A HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KGID 161307
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
807 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW A FEW
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST OF THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAP AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH INDICATE THIS INITIAL GROUP OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID LOWER THEM A BIT THIS
MORNING.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CANADA...EXPECT VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE EAST TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO HELP AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OUTLOOKED BY SPC. IF REALIZED...THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WHILE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO DIMINISHED SHEAR
VALUES...THINK THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BY THE TIME THE RAINFALL ENDS AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD BY A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WHILE
ACTUAL FROST MAY NOT DEVELOP EITHER DAY...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD EVENTUALLY
SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REALIZED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
MARGINAL...OPTED NOT TO MENTION EITHER OF THESE IN THE MORNING HWO.

THEREAFTER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 806 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE TO 12Z TAF DISCUSSION...

SINCE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WAS ISSUED A FEW HOURS
AGO...AVIATION CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN A NOTABLE DOWNWARD TURN WITH
PREVAILING LIFR/IFR CEILING AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY IN LOW
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG. THERE IS LIKELY EVEN SOME OFF-AND-ON LIGHT
DRIZZLE ONGOING. IN SHORT...EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILING/VISIBILITY AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
MAY LAST LONGER (ESPECIALLY CEILING-WISE) THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE FIRST 12-15 HOURS SHOULD MAINLY FEATURE
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARRIVING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN
CLOSING...ANTICIPATE AMENDMENTS TO BE NECESSARY DURING THE PERIOD
AS WE GRADUALLY GET A HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH




000
FXUS63 KGID 161307
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
807 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW A FEW
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST OF THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAP AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH INDICATE THIS INITIAL GROUP OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID LOWER THEM A BIT THIS
MORNING.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CANADA...EXPECT VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE EAST TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO HELP AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OUTLOOKED BY SPC. IF REALIZED...THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WHILE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO DIMINISHED SHEAR
VALUES...THINK THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BY THE TIME THE RAINFALL ENDS AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD BY A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WHILE
ACTUAL FROST MAY NOT DEVELOP EITHER DAY...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD EVENTUALLY
SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REALIZED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
MARGINAL...OPTED NOT TO MENTION EITHER OF THESE IN THE MORNING HWO.

THEREAFTER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 806 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATE TO 12Z TAF DISCUSSION...

SINCE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WAS ISSUED A FEW HOURS
AGO...AVIATION CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN A NOTABLE DOWNWARD TURN WITH
PREVAILING LIFR/IFR CEILING AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY IN LOW
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG. THERE IS LIKELY EVEN SOME OFF-AND-ON LIGHT
DRIZZLE ONGOING. IN SHORT...EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILING/VISIBILITY AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
MAY LAST LONGER (ESPECIALLY CEILING-WISE) THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE FIRST 12-15 HOURS SHOULD MAINLY FEATURE
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARRIVING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN
CLOSING...ANTICIPATE AMENDMENTS TO BE NECESSARY DURING THE PERIOD
AS WE GRADUALLY GET A HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



000
FXUS63 KLBF 161246
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
746 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO WRN NEBR AND
CNTRL SD. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE THROUGH HOLDREGE NORTH TO NEAR
BURWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FA BY TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN NEBR AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
0.75 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN FA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND INCH ACROSS
THE SERN FA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT
VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND SWRN NEBR
BY 21Z. POPS THIS MORNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY. WENT NEAR TO
SIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER
50S WEST TO NEAR 65 NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLED H3 JET AND EASTERLY H85 WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35KTS WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE H7
LOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE H85 FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL CO TO ALONG
THE KS/NEBR BORDER. NEARLY CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPFS FOR TONIGHT FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 TO TWO TENTHS TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO THE NORTH. RESULTING POPS NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD PREFER
EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE WET WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS CO THEN STALL/MINOR LOOP BEFORE PUSHING
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE LOW IS ACROSS CO...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH 0.75 TO 0.90
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST WHICH IS NEARING THE MAX FOR MID APRIL FOR
KLBF. NEG LIFTED INDEXES AND SOME SMALL POS MUCAPE SHOULD RESULT
IN PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW OVER CO...WHICH ALLOWS A LARGE DRY
SLOT TO GET PULL IN FROM THE DESERT SW FOR SATURDAY. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THE GFS IS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO S DAKOTA BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT
DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SOME
DRYING ACROSS SW NEB AND LOWER POPS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW...WHICH BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE BACK TO SW NEB. A FURTHER
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPS ON
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL SWING.
EXPECT POCKETS OF SUN AND STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ON SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. NO MENTION OF SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS IN POSITIVE
TERRITORY AND SFC LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COOLEST.

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S. STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR TEMPS THIS COLD.

NEXT WEEK A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ROTATE NEAR/NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF SFC MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPS
MORE SEASONAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE ONTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING AT KVTN WHILE
VFR AT KLBF. TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN BY LATE EVENING AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 161246
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
746 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO WRN NEBR AND
CNTRL SD. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE THROUGH HOLDREGE NORTH TO NEAR
BURWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FA BY TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN NEBR AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
0.75 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN FA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND INCH ACROSS
THE SERN FA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT
VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND SWRN NEBR
BY 21Z. POPS THIS MORNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY. WENT NEAR TO
SIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER
50S WEST TO NEAR 65 NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLED H3 JET AND EASTERLY H85 WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35KTS WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE H7
LOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE H85 FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL CO TO ALONG
THE KS/NEBR BORDER. NEARLY CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPFS FOR TONIGHT FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 TO TWO TENTHS TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO THE NORTH. RESULTING POPS NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD PREFER
EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE WET WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS CO THEN STALL/MINOR LOOP BEFORE PUSHING
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE LOW IS ACROSS CO...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH 0.75 TO 0.90
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST WHICH IS NEARING THE MAX FOR MID APRIL FOR
KLBF. NEG LIFTED INDEXES AND SOME SMALL POS MUCAPE SHOULD RESULT
IN PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW OVER CO...WHICH ALLOWS A LARGE DRY
SLOT TO GET PULL IN FROM THE DESERT SW FOR SATURDAY. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THE GFS IS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO S DAKOTA BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT
DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SOME
DRYING ACROSS SW NEB AND LOWER POPS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW...WHICH BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE BACK TO SW NEB. A FURTHER
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPS ON
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL SWING.
EXPECT POCKETS OF SUN AND STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ON SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. NO MENTION OF SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS IN POSITIVE
TERRITORY AND SFC LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COOLEST.

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S. STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR TEMPS THIS COLD.

NEXT WEEK A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ROTATE NEAR/NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF SFC MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPS
MORE SEASONAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE ONTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING AT KVTN WHILE
VFR AT KLBF. TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN BY LATE EVENING AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 161246
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
746 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO WRN NEBR AND
CNTRL SD. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE THROUGH HOLDREGE NORTH TO NEAR
BURWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FA BY TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN NEBR AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
0.75 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN FA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND INCH ACROSS
THE SERN FA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT
VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND SWRN NEBR
BY 21Z. POPS THIS MORNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY. WENT NEAR TO
SIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER
50S WEST TO NEAR 65 NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLED H3 JET AND EASTERLY H85 WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35KTS WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE H7
LOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE H85 FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL CO TO ALONG
THE KS/NEBR BORDER. NEARLY CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPFS FOR TONIGHT FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 TO TWO TENTHS TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO THE NORTH. RESULTING POPS NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD PREFER
EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE WET WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS CO THEN STALL/MINOR LOOP BEFORE PUSHING
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE LOW IS ACROSS CO...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH 0.75 TO 0.90
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST WHICH IS NEARING THE MAX FOR MID APRIL FOR
KLBF. NEG LIFTED INDEXES AND SOME SMALL POS MUCAPE SHOULD RESULT
IN PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW OVER CO...WHICH ALLOWS A LARGE DRY
SLOT TO GET PULL IN FROM THE DESERT SW FOR SATURDAY. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THE GFS IS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO S DAKOTA BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT
DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SOME
DRYING ACROSS SW NEB AND LOWER POPS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW...WHICH BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE BACK TO SW NEB. A FURTHER
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPS ON
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL SWING.
EXPECT POCKETS OF SUN AND STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ON SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. NO MENTION OF SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS IN POSITIVE
TERRITORY AND SFC LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COOLEST.

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S. STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR TEMPS THIS COLD.

NEXT WEEK A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ROTATE NEAR/NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF SFC MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPS
MORE SEASONAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE ONTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING AT KVTN WHILE
VFR AT KLBF. TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN BY LATE EVENING AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 161246
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
746 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO WRN NEBR AND
CNTRL SD. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE THROUGH HOLDREGE NORTH TO NEAR
BURWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FA BY TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN NEBR AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
0.75 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN FA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND INCH ACROSS
THE SERN FA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT
VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND SWRN NEBR
BY 21Z. POPS THIS MORNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY. WENT NEAR TO
SIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER
50S WEST TO NEAR 65 NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLED H3 JET AND EASTERLY H85 WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35KTS WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE H7
LOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE H85 FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL CO TO ALONG
THE KS/NEBR BORDER. NEARLY CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPFS FOR TONIGHT FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 TO TWO TENTHS TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO THE NORTH. RESULTING POPS NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD PREFER
EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE WET WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS CO THEN STALL/MINOR LOOP BEFORE PUSHING
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE LOW IS ACROSS CO...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH 0.75 TO 0.90
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST WHICH IS NEARING THE MAX FOR MID APRIL FOR
KLBF. NEG LIFTED INDEXES AND SOME SMALL POS MUCAPE SHOULD RESULT
IN PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW OVER CO...WHICH ALLOWS A LARGE DRY
SLOT TO GET PULL IN FROM THE DESERT SW FOR SATURDAY. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THE GFS IS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO S DAKOTA BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT
DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SOME
DRYING ACROSS SW NEB AND LOWER POPS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW...WHICH BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE BACK TO SW NEB. A FURTHER
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPS ON
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL SWING.
EXPECT POCKETS OF SUN AND STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ON SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. NO MENTION OF SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS IN POSITIVE
TERRITORY AND SFC LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COOLEST.

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S. STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR TEMPS THIS COLD.

NEXT WEEK A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ROTATE NEAR/NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF SFC MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPS
MORE SEASONAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE ONTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING AT KVTN WHILE
VFR AT KLBF. TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN BY LATE EVENING AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KOAX 161131
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF AROUND 635 AM. MOST OF THE RECENT
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY GOING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA BUT ALSO IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA NORTH OF OMAHA. CLOUDS WERE VARIABLE AS OF
635 AM WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG WHERE SKIES HAD CLEARED EARLIER.

BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS SEEMS TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS LAST EVENING
CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS BRING THAT PCPN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INSTABILITY AXIS FARTHER WEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BRING SOME INSTABILITY INTO OUR AREA BY MID MORNING AND
THEN THIS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA...THEN FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF LINE FROM AROUND
WAYNE TO FALLS CITY.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT
MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING.
STAYED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TO COLORADO. THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY.
THE 0.83 PWAT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING WAS 170% OF NORMAL.  CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD PWAT VALUES FROM 1.00-1.25
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THEN 0.75 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DRYING FROM THE WEST. THE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL TEND TO BE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO AND WYOMING.
THIS FORCING TENDS TO WEAKEN AT IS MOVES TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND WESTERN IOWA. THE NAM/GFS/EC MODELS DID NOT DO WELL ON THE
POSITION OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE WEST AT 06Z HOWEVER THE
HIRES RAP/HRRR AND 4KM WRF NMM MODELS DID BETTER...SO HARD TO BE
CONFIDENT WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIKELY POPS...OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AND WILL HAVE A GRADIENT IN POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ISOLATED/CHC POPS IN WESTERN IOWA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE COMMON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  TYPICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A
TRACE TO .5" IN EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD.  FOR THAT 48HRS A REASONABLE
RANGE FOR RAIN TOTALS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE TYPICAL LOWER AND HIGHER OUTLIERS POSSIBLE.

HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY.
IF HEATING IS REALIZED...INSTABILITY INCREASES FRIDAY TO
1000-1500J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE SPC HAS THE MARGINAL RISK IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE
THAT EXTENDS FROM H5 LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SHIFTS INTO MISSOURI
AND IOWA. THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. H85 WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASE TO 40KTS...SO IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE COLDER AND SLOWER TO END THE PRECIPITATION...SO THESE
DETAILS CAN BE FIRMED UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ENDING OF THE
EVENT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY. COOLER HIGHS FOR THE
EXTENDED IN THE 50S AND 60S. MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD H5 TROF CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AFTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO MID MORNING
CEILINGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK WITH -SHRA OR -TSRA MAINLY
BEFORE 18Z. THE CHANCE OF -TSRA FOR TONIGHT SEEMED TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT IN LATER
FCSTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 161131
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF AROUND 635 AM. MOST OF THE RECENT
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY GOING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA BUT ALSO IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA NORTH OF OMAHA. CLOUDS WERE VARIABLE AS OF
635 AM WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG WHERE SKIES HAD CLEARED EARLIER.

BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS SEEMS TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS LAST EVENING
CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS BRING THAT PCPN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INSTABILITY AXIS FARTHER WEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BRING SOME INSTABILITY INTO OUR AREA BY MID MORNING AND
THEN THIS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA...THEN FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF LINE FROM AROUND
WAYNE TO FALLS CITY.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT
MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING.
STAYED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TO COLORADO. THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY.
THE 0.83 PWAT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING WAS 170% OF NORMAL.  CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD PWAT VALUES FROM 1.00-1.25
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THEN 0.75 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DRYING FROM THE WEST. THE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL TEND TO BE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO AND WYOMING.
THIS FORCING TENDS TO WEAKEN AT IS MOVES TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND WESTERN IOWA. THE NAM/GFS/EC MODELS DID NOT DO WELL ON THE
POSITION OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE WEST AT 06Z HOWEVER THE
HIRES RAP/HRRR AND 4KM WRF NMM MODELS DID BETTER...SO HARD TO BE
CONFIDENT WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIKELY POPS...OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AND WILL HAVE A GRADIENT IN POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ISOLATED/CHC POPS IN WESTERN IOWA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE COMMON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  TYPICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A
TRACE TO .5" IN EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD.  FOR THAT 48HRS A REASONABLE
RANGE FOR RAIN TOTALS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE TYPICAL LOWER AND HIGHER OUTLIERS POSSIBLE.

HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY.
IF HEATING IS REALIZED...INSTABILITY INCREASES FRIDAY TO
1000-1500J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE SPC HAS THE MARGINAL RISK IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE
THAT EXTENDS FROM H5 LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SHIFTS INTO MISSOURI
AND IOWA. THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. H85 WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASE TO 40KTS...SO IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE COLDER AND SLOWER TO END THE PRECIPITATION...SO THESE
DETAILS CAN BE FIRMED UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ENDING OF THE
EVENT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY. COOLER HIGHS FOR THE
EXTENDED IN THE 50S AND 60S. MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD H5 TROF CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AFTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO MID MORNING
CEILINGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK WITH -SHRA OR -TSRA MAINLY
BEFORE 18Z. THE CHANCE OF -TSRA FOR TONIGHT SEEMED TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT IN LATER
FCSTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KOAX 161131
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF AROUND 635 AM. MOST OF THE RECENT
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY GOING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA BUT ALSO IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA NORTH OF OMAHA. CLOUDS WERE VARIABLE AS OF
635 AM WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG WHERE SKIES HAD CLEARED EARLIER.

BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS SEEMS TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS LAST EVENING
CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS BRING THAT PCPN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INSTABILITY AXIS FARTHER WEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BRING SOME INSTABILITY INTO OUR AREA BY MID MORNING AND
THEN THIS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA...THEN FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF LINE FROM AROUND
WAYNE TO FALLS CITY.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT
MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING.
STAYED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TO COLORADO. THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY.
THE 0.83 PWAT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING WAS 170% OF NORMAL.  CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD PWAT VALUES FROM 1.00-1.25
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THEN 0.75 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DRYING FROM THE WEST. THE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL TEND TO BE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO AND WYOMING.
THIS FORCING TENDS TO WEAKEN AT IS MOVES TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND WESTERN IOWA. THE NAM/GFS/EC MODELS DID NOT DO WELL ON THE
POSITION OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE WEST AT 06Z HOWEVER THE
HIRES RAP/HRRR AND 4KM WRF NMM MODELS DID BETTER...SO HARD TO BE
CONFIDENT WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIKELY POPS...OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AND WILL HAVE A GRADIENT IN POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ISOLATED/CHC POPS IN WESTERN IOWA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE COMMON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  TYPICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A
TRACE TO .5" IN EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD.  FOR THAT 48HRS A REASONABLE
RANGE FOR RAIN TOTALS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE TYPICAL LOWER AND HIGHER OUTLIERS POSSIBLE.

HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY.
IF HEATING IS REALIZED...INSTABILITY INCREASES FRIDAY TO
1000-1500J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE SPC HAS THE MARGINAL RISK IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE
THAT EXTENDS FROM H5 LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SHIFTS INTO MISSOURI
AND IOWA. THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. H85 WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASE TO 40KTS...SO IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE COLDER AND SLOWER TO END THE PRECIPITATION...SO THESE
DETAILS CAN BE FIRMED UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ENDING OF THE
EVENT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY. COOLER HIGHS FOR THE
EXTENDED IN THE 50S AND 60S. MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD H5 TROF CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AFTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO MID MORNING
CEILINGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK WITH -SHRA OR -TSRA MAINLY
BEFORE 18Z. THE CHANCE OF -TSRA FOR TONIGHT SEEMED TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT IN LATER
FCSTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER



000
FXUS63 KOAX 161131
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF AROUND 635 AM. MOST OF THE RECENT
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY GOING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA BUT ALSO IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA NORTH OF OMAHA. CLOUDS WERE VARIABLE AS OF
635 AM WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG WHERE SKIES HAD CLEARED EARLIER.

BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS SEEMS TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS
IN THE TODAY PERIOD...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES.

CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS LAST EVENING
CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS BRING THAT PCPN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INSTABILITY AXIS FARTHER WEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BRING SOME INSTABILITY INTO OUR AREA BY MID MORNING AND
THEN THIS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA...THEN FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF LINE FROM AROUND
WAYNE TO FALLS CITY.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT
MAY BREAK UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING.
STAYED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...THE MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST TO COLORADO. THE H5 LOW MEANDERS OVER COLORADO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY.
THE 0.83 PWAT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING WAS 170% OF NORMAL.  CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD PWAT VALUES FROM 1.00-1.25
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THEN 0.75 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
DRYING FROM THE WEST. THE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL TEND TO BE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA INTO COLORADO AND WYOMING.
THIS FORCING TENDS TO WEAKEN AT IS MOVES TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND WESTERN IOWA. THE NAM/GFS/EC MODELS DID NOT DO WELL ON THE
POSITION OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE WEST AT 06Z HOWEVER THE
HIRES RAP/HRRR AND 4KM WRF NMM MODELS DID BETTER...SO HARD TO BE
CONFIDENT WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT. FOR NOW...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIKELY POPS...OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AND WILL HAVE A GRADIENT IN POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ISOLATED/CHC POPS IN WESTERN IOWA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE COMMON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  TYPICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A
TRACE TO .5" IN EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD.  FOR THAT 48HRS A REASONABLE
RANGE FOR RAIN TOTALS WOULD BE HALF AN INCH TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE TYPICAL LOWER AND HIGHER OUTLIERS POSSIBLE.

HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD STILL BE MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY.
IF HEATING IS REALIZED...INSTABILITY INCREASES FRIDAY TO
1000-1500J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE SPC HAS THE MARGINAL RISK IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE
THAT EXTENDS FROM H5 LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SHIFTS INTO MISSOURI
AND IOWA. THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST...WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY. H85 WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASE TO 40KTS...SO IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE COLDER AND SLOWER TO END THE PRECIPITATION...SO THESE
DETAILS CAN BE FIRMED UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ENDING OF THE
EVENT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY. COOLER HIGHS FOR THE
EXTENDED IN THE 50S AND 60S. MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD H5 TROF CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AFTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO MID MORNING
CEILINGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOFK WITH -SHRA OR -TSRA MAINLY
BEFORE 18Z. THE CHANCE OF -TSRA FOR TONIGHT SEEMED TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT IN LATER
FCSTS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER




000
FXUS63 KGID 161048
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW A FEW
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST OF THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAP AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH INDICATE THIS INITIAL GROUP OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID LOWER THEM A BIT THIS
MORNING.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CANADA...EXPECT VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE EAST TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO HELP AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OUTLOOKED BY SPC. IF REALIZED...THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WHILE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO DIMINISHED SHEAR
VALUES...THINK THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BY THE TIME THE RAINFALL ENDS AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD BY A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WHILE
ACTUAL FROST MAY NOT DEVELOP EITHER DAY...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD EVENTUALLY
SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REALIZED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
MARGINAL...OPTED NOT TO MENTION EITHER OF THESE IN THE MORNING HWO.

THEREAFTER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. THERE
COULD BE A SPRINKLE OR TWO FOR A WHILE BUT THEN THERE COULD BE A
BREAK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB



000
FXUS63 KGID 161048
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW A FEW
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST OF THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAP AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH INDICATE THIS INITIAL GROUP OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID LOWER THEM A BIT THIS
MORNING.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CANADA...EXPECT VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE EAST TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO HELP AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OUTLOOKED BY SPC. IF REALIZED...THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WHILE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO DIMINISHED SHEAR
VALUES...THINK THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BY THE TIME THE RAINFALL ENDS AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD BY A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WHILE
ACTUAL FROST MAY NOT DEVELOP EITHER DAY...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD EVENTUALLY
SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REALIZED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
MARGINAL...OPTED NOT TO MENTION EITHER OF THESE IN THE MORNING HWO.

THEREAFTER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. THERE
COULD BE A SPRINKLE OR TWO FOR A WHILE BUT THEN THERE COULD BE A
BREAK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 160915
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW A FEW
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST OF THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAP AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH INDICATE THIS INITIAL GROUP OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID LOWER THEM A BIT THIS
MORNING.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CANADA...EXPECT VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE EAST TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO HELP AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OUTLOOKED BY SPC. IF REALIZED...THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WHILE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO DIMINISHED SHEAR
VALUES...THINK THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BY THE TIME THE RAINFALL ENDS AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD BY A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WHILE
ACTUAL FROST MAY NOT DEVELOP EITHER DAY...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD EVENTUALLY
SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REALIZED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
MARGINAL...OPTED NOT TO MENTION EITHER OF THESE IN THE MORNING HWO.

THEREAFTER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON AND OFF THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE SURFACE LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL BE BEFORE SUNRISE
THIS MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 160915
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW A FEW
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST OF THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAP AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH INDICATE THIS INITIAL GROUP OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID LOWER THEM A BIT THIS
MORNING.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CANADA...EXPECT VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE EAST TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO HELP AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OUTLOOKED BY SPC. IF REALIZED...THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WHILE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO DIMINISHED SHEAR
VALUES...THINK THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BY THE TIME THE RAINFALL ENDS AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD BY A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WHILE
ACTUAL FROST MAY NOT DEVELOP EITHER DAY...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD EVENTUALLY
SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REALIZED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
MARGINAL...OPTED NOT TO MENTION EITHER OF THESE IN THE MORNING HWO.

THEREAFTER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON AND OFF THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE SURFACE LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL BE BEFORE SUNRISE
THIS MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 160915
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW A FEW
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST OF THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAP AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH INDICATE THIS INITIAL GROUP OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID LOWER THEM A BIT THIS
MORNING.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CANADA...EXPECT VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE EAST TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO HELP AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OUTLOOKED BY SPC. IF REALIZED...THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WHILE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO DIMINISHED SHEAR
VALUES...THINK THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BY THE TIME THE RAINFALL ENDS AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD BY A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WHILE
ACTUAL FROST MAY NOT DEVELOP EITHER DAY...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD EVENTUALLY
SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REALIZED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
MARGINAL...OPTED NOT TO MENTION EITHER OF THESE IN THE MORNING HWO.

THEREAFTER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON AND OFF THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE SURFACE LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL BE BEFORE SUNRISE
THIS MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KGID 160915
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW A FEW
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FIRST OF THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE RAP AND THE 4KM WRF BOTH INDICATE THIS INITIAL GROUP OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...THERE COULD BE A BREAK THIS MORNING.
HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID LOWER THEM A BIT THIS
MORNING.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SPREAD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEARLY 2500 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS. THIS IS
THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER. WITH THIS LOW CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
CANADA...EXPECT VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE EAST TO RESULT IN
MULTIPLE DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DEWPOINTS HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECT THE
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO HELP AID IN THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THAT SAID...WITH MUCH BETTER SHEAR TO WORK
WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SHOT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOW OUTLOOKED BY SPC. IF REALIZED...THE MAIN
HAZARDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WHILE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO DIMINISHED SHEAR
VALUES...THINK THE COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED. EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH DAYS...WITH STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
BY THE TIME THE RAINFALL ENDS AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTED EASTWARD BY A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. WHILE
ACTUAL FROST MAY NOT DEVELOP EITHER DAY...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED. ADDITIONALLY...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD EVENTUALLY
SEE SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REALIZED ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. BECAUSE BOTH OF
THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
MARGINAL...OPTED NOT TO MENTION EITHER OF THESE IN THE MORNING HWO.

THEREAFTER...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON AND OFF THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE SURFACE LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL BE BEFORE SUNRISE
THIS MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB




000
FXUS63 KLBF 160904
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
404 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AT 08Z...THE MAIN AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NEW MEXICO
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO WRN NEBR AND
CNTRL SD. SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE THROUGH HOLDREGE NORTH TO NEAR
BURWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST JUST TO ITS SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING
THEN SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FA BY TONIGHT.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO WRN NEBR AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
0.75 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN FA TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AND INCH ACROSS
THE SERN FA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE PWAT
VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
MORNING...THEN INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM AFTERNOON
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS BY 18Z AND SWRN NEBR
BY 21Z. POPS THIS MORNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS INTO CHASE...HAYES...AND FRONTIER COUNTY. WENT NEAR TO
SIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH MID TO UPPER
50S WEST TO NEAR 65 NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...A COUPLED H3 JET AND EASTERLY H85 WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 35KTS WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE H7
LOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
THE H85 FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL CO TO ALONG
THE KS/NEBR BORDER. NEARLY CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST QPFS FOR TONIGHT FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 TO TWO TENTHS TO AROUND A HALF
INCH TO THE NORTH. RESULTING POPS NEAR 80 PERCENT NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD PREFER
EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
COLORADO AND KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE WET WEATHER CONTINUES
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS CO THEN STALL/MINOR LOOP BEFORE PUSHING
ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WHEN THE LOW IS ACROSS CO...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEB SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 1 INCH...WITH 0.75 TO 0.90
INCHES ACROSS THE WEST WHICH IS NEARING THE MAX FOR MID APRIL FOR
KLBF. NEG LIFTED INDEXES AND SOME SMALL POS MUCAPE SHOULD RESULT
IN PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW OVER CO...WHICH ALLOWS A LARGE DRY
SLOT TO GET PULL IN FROM THE DESERT SW FOR SATURDAY. THE OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF A DRY SLOT...BUT NOT TO THE
EXTENT THE GFS IS. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO S DAKOTA BY SAT MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT
DRY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SOME
DRYING ACROSS SW NEB AND LOWER POPS.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KS.
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW...WHICH BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE BACK TO SW NEB. A FURTHER
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN KS MAY PUSH THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY TO TEMPS ON
SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL SWING.
EXPECT POCKETS OF SUN AND STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES ON SAT.
BY SAT NIGHT MORE CLOUDS AND TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST. NO MENTION OF SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS IN POSITIVE
TERRITORY AND SFC LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COOLEST.

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH RESULTS IN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOWER 30S MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S. STILL CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR TEMPS THIS COLD.

NEXT WEEK A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL ROTATE NEAR/NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE HIGH
PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES/CLIPPERS SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH UNSURE IF SFC MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. TEMPS
MORE SEASONAL FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UNTIL LATE
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS THEN LIKELY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z IN MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL AT
LEAST IN PERIODS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER







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